Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-13-17 | Angels v. Mariners -126 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -126 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:10 ET): Needless to say, this has not been a positive series for the Mariners. Not only have they dropped all three games so far (even after drawing heavy action yday), but they lost their best pitcher (James Paxton) to the DL as well. The end result is that they are now a game behind the Angels for the American League's second Wild Card chase, a race that figures to go down to the wire as only a handful of teams can really be considered "out of it." The embarrassment of suffering a four-game sweep at home now looms, but I'll call for the M's to avoid it, even though they're facing the red-hot Parker Bridwell. I'm higher on the Halos long-term, but today should be Seattle's day as I still have the teams rated fairly evenly. The Angels came into this series just 24-32 on the road. But they've scored six runs in every game w/ 13 of the 18 runs total coming at the expense of the Mariners' bullpen. Last night's game was particularly cruel from the Seattle perspective as they actually outhit the Angels, 13-8, and had a 3-1 lead entering the seventh. BUt that was when the bullpen began to meltdown, allowing five runs over the next two innings. The previous night saw the M's blow a 5-1 lead, again allowing LA to score five times after the 7th. Thursday's game (6-3 final) was won w/ a three-run top of the ninth. So, needless to say, all three of these games could have gone either way; it just so happens none of them went to the home team. I think this one will, however, if for no other season than Seattle is simply "due" some better fortune. Some sharp line movement here seems to confirm my intuition. Parker Bridwell has been a revelation for the Angels rotation as he comes in w/ a 10-1 TSR and has won four consecutive starts. However, that one time the Angels lost w/ him on the mound happened to come against Seattle back on June 30th as he allowed five runs on 11 hits (6 IP), both season-worsts. On the other hand, Seattle's Ariel Miranda comes in struggling as he's winless over his L6 starts and has a 7.02 ERA in the last three. But ... he's pitched well in the past against the Angels, going 4-0 w/ a 2.61 ERA. Two of those wins have come this season w/ the last one seeing him toss seven shutout innings of two-hit ball. The Mariners have outscored the Angels 21-3 in those two Miranda starts this year. It may not be that lopsided this go-around, but considering the M's are 9-5 this year when on a losing streak of 3+ games, it will be a win nonetheless. 8* Seattle | |||||||
08-13-17 | Astros -142 v. Rangers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
10* Houston (3:05 ET): What in the world is going on w/ the Astros right now? The best team in the American League all season long has all of sudden dropped five straight, all on the road. Getting swept in Chicago (by the White Sox!) was downright shocking and now they've lost two straight here in Arlington where the Rangers are desperately trying to remain relevant in the Wild Card chase. Here is where the Astros' losing streak comes to an end, however. First off, let us not forget how truly special this team has been in '17, particularly away from home. They are 38-20 and have outscored opponents by nearly TWO full runs per game. Their 6.6 rpg scoring average is more than a full run higher than the next best team. Dallas Keuchel will be on the mound this afternoon and I can't see him being beaten a second time this week. Texas is fascinating case study in regression this year. Coming into the season, I fully expected them to not win as many games as they did in 2016. Winning 95 games a season ago was highly misleading when you consider they outscored opponents by only eight runs. They were paced by a historically great (and lucky) 36-11 record in one-run games. This season currently finds them at 56-59, even though their run differential (+11) is actually better than it was last season! The difference? They've gone 10-18 in one-run games. They've been impressive in this series so far, scoring 14 runs in two games, but I can't see them sweeping the Astros, not w/ Keuchel on the mound. The Rangers' own starter, Andrew Cashner, was scratched from his last start due to a stiff neck. While he's pitched well over the last two months, Cashner has not fared well this season against the Astros, losing all three times he's faced them w/ a 6.19 ERA. Keuchel had a won-loss record of 9-0 back on June 2nd, which was the day he threw six scoreless innings against Texas. It was also the day he landed on the DL for a second time in '17. Since returning, he has not looked like the same pitcher, particularly his last time out where he allowed EIGHT runs to the White Sox in an embarrassing loss as a -250 ML favorite. I expect him to bounce back today, however. The team had won 11 of his 12 starts overall heading into August. The Astros are also 20-10 in day games this year. I can't see this Astros' losing streak, their longest of the season, continuing. 10* Houston | |||||||
08-13-17 | Indians -190 v. Rays | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
6* Cleveland (1:10 ET): This sets up as a BRUTAL spot for Tampa Bay, coming off B2B shutouts and now having to face Corey Kluber. The Indians' ace should continue the trend of shutting the Rays' offense down here as he comes in w/ a 2.65 ERA and 0.912 WHIP, both of which rank second in the American League. He's 3rd in the AL in strikeouts (183) and has fanned 11+ batters in five consecutive starts. The former Cy Young winner couldn't be in any better form coming into Sunday either as he's off B2B complete games where he allowed just one run on three hits each time. Overall, the Tribe has won the last four times he's taken the mound. Oh by the way, Tampa Bay has scored just eight runs total its last eight games and has been shutout FIVE times during that stretch. So, yes, I'd say this is a horrible matchup for the scuffling Rays, who are now .500 for the 1st time since June 16th. They did take Thursday's opener, 4-1, but since then they've failed to put a single run on the board. Carlos Carrasco took a no-hitter into the seventh on Friday night and last night saw Mike Clevinger outduel Chris Archer. Not only have the Rays not scored the L2 days, they have just seven hits! All five shutouts in the L8 games have been at home. In fact, 9 of their MLB-leading shutouts have taken place here at Tropicana Field. They're batting just .175 on the current homestand and have struck out 87 times. Those numbers make a matchup w/ Kluber appear to be downright frightening. Cleveland is #1 in runs allowed in the AL, by the way. The Rays will send Austin Pruitt to the hill Sunday afternoon. In his L2 starts, he's had to face Dallas Keuchel and Chris Sale and while he "lived to tell the story," even pitching quite well, I don't believe he'll be up to the task today. He was on the wrong end of one of those Rays' shutouts on Tuesday w/ Sale and the Red Sox beating him 2-0. With Kluber having allowed 1 or 0 ER in 8 of his last 10 starts, the margin for error here is very thin for Pruitt and I think it's right to question what he and the team will have left in the tank here. It's tough enough having to face Keuchel and Sale in B2B starts, now comes Kluber. Pruitt knows that run support here is likely to be minimal at best, so I see the Rays getting crushed here. The Indians lineup is already benefiting from the addition of Jay Bruce, who had 2 RBI's yday. 6* Cleveland | |||||||
08-12-17 | Royals -143 v. White Sox | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (7:10 ET): After cashing the White Sox last night (as an underdog!), I'm switching courses here tonight and calling for the Royals to end their losing streak. Certainly, you don't expect to catch a team like the White Sox riding in on a four-game win streak very often. But they did sweep Houston (shocker!) to start the week before winning 6-3 last night. Meanwhile, KC has lost five in a row as they had the misfortune of running into the red-hot Cardinals in a home & home to start their week. I'm on record as calling the Royals "the very definition of average," but that works both ways as they're not as bad as they've been playing recently. Remember that they went on a 10-1 run near the end of July that included a three-game sweep of these White Sox. A big reason why I'm taking the Royals tonight is that I feel the starting pitching edge is strongly in their favor. They'll send Ian Kennedy out to the bump Saturday night and while he's struggled his past two starts (allowed 10 ER in 10 IP!), look for him to bounce back as before that the team had won seven of his eight starts w/ him allowing 3 ER or less in every victory. It's interesting that Kennedy has pitched better on the road this year as he's still winless at Kauffman Stadium! Among the four regulars in the Royals starting rotation, Kennedy actually has the best WHIP. Note that last night was a 2-2 game heading into the seventh. So, although I'm not afraid to "crow" over the victory, things easily could have gone the other way were it not for one big (four-run) inning from the White Sox. Chicago got a great start from the highly touted Reynaldo Lopez (one of the big reasons I was on them) last night. But tonight they'll have to rely on old James Shields, who has not been good of late w/ a 8.13 ERA his last six starts. He's also winless over that stretch. He now has an ERA over 6.00 and a WHIP over 1.500 for the year. The long-ball has really hurt him of late as he's given up a total of 5 HR's in his L2 starts. Let's keep some perspective here, shall we? The White Sox are 23 games below .500 and had dropped 19 of 22 before the current win streak, which happens to be their longest since late April. With a team this bad, the good times won't last long. 8* Kansas City | |||||||
08-12-17 | Twins v. Tigers -104 | Top | 11-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
10* Detroit (6:10 ET): Minnesota has all of a sudden won six straight games, including the series opener in Detroit last night, 9-4. Make no mistake about it, last night was a pretty complete effort, but the key was a big catch by CF Byron Buxton in the seventh when the Tigers had two men on. However, winning streak aside, I remain highly skeptical of these Twins. Yes, they've climbed back above .500 (58-56) and are now in pole position for the second Wild Card in the American League. But they've still been outscored by 51 runs this year and even though they've been one of the most profitable teams to bet on the road, their runs scored vs. allowed is basically even outside of Target Field. Jose Berrios pitches for them tonight and as a result, the line has moved in the Twins' direction. But I believe this sets up as a great value play on Detroit as I just don't have much faith in Minnesota continuing to win. The Tigers have been trending in the opposite direction of the Twins, losing six of their last seven games. Despite this, they actually still have the better YTD run differential of the two teams (-35). Also, recall that Detroit did get off to a strong start here in August by beating the Astros twice and then taking two of three at Yankee Stadium. It was a NL park (Pittsburgh) where the trouble began (lose DH) and that carried over into last night. Jordan Zimmerman toes the rubber on Saturday and despite having a high ERA/WHIP for the year, he's coming off three consecutive quality outings. Last time out, his offense forgot to score (in Pittsburgh). This will be only Zimmerman's second start at home since the Break, the first coming against Dallas Keuchel and Houston. He can expect more run support tonight as the Tigers offense averages a healthy 5.4 rpg at Comerica Park. Only five teams in all of MLB average more runs per game at home. The Twins typically win ugly, but lose even uglier. The current stretch is one of their best of the season; in fact, it's their longest win streak to date. Previously, they had not won more than four in a row at any point. Berrios has been their most profitable starter, but he was fortunate his last time out as the offense bailed him out in a 6-5 win over Texas. He allowed 2 HR's and five runs overall in five innings of work. He's also started to show signs of regression w/ only two of his last seven starts being quality. Berrios has pitched much better at home than on the road this year and if I'm a Twins fan, I'd be worried here about the fact the bullpen was taxed last night (4+ IP). Unless Berrios can deliver a masterpiece (don't see that happening), then I see the Twins losing for the first time in a week. 10* Detroit | |||||||
08-11-17 | Braves +135 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (8:15 ET): St. Louis certainly figures to be a popular side today. As I mentioned in the White Sox writeup, they just pulled off a dominant four-game sweep of the Royals (home & home) and have now won six in a row overall. They have pulled within a game of the first place Cubs in the NL Central and have the superior run YTD run differential. Don't count me among the "surprised," however, as I said week ago that the Cards just might be the best team in their division. Hosting Atlanta this weekend, everyone is likely to call for the "good times" to continue, but the ML for tonight's series opener has done some curious things, namely drop precipitously despite the vast majority of bets coming in on the favorite. (The same holds true in the Royals-White Sox game). The Braves do have an edge here in that they had Thursday off. Also, who knows what to expect from St. Louis in this "post-Rally Kitten" world? I'm on the dog here. The Braves' recent homestand ended in disappointing fashion as they lost the final three games, including both w/ the Phillies. But this team has curiously played better on the road all season anyway, so I'm not really concerned w/ them leaving their home park. They are basically dead even in terms of runs scored vs. allowed for the balance of the season (away from home). Something else they have going for them here is Mike Foltynewicz will be on the hill. Foltynewicz has a 10-1 team start record since June 2nd, including a very dominant performance his last time out (Saturday) when he struck out a season-high 11 batters in a 7-2 win over Miami (allowed only 1 ER & 4 hits in 6 1/3 IP). This is also a revenge spot for Foltynewicz and the Braves as they were swept in their lone series w/ the Cardinals this year (back in May). That included Foltynewicz's worst start of the season, so he'll be highly motivated here. The Cards counter w/ Adam Wainwright and while he has the same team start record as Foltynewicz (13-8), his ERA and WHIP are both worse. Last time out, starting for the first time in two weeks, Wainwright lasted only three innings as it took him 45 pitches to get out of the first inning. That was against Cincinnati too. Wainwright was fortunate in that his offense "showed up" that day, scoring 13 times. Another note is that Wainwright last started Sunday, a day after Foltynewicz, so not only are the Braves more rested than the Cardinals, so is their starter. St. Louis is only a .500 proposition (29-29) off a win this season. They were actually outhit by the Royals last night, but were fortunate to get a grand slam from Dexter Fowler. This is what I call an "ambush" spot. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
08-11-17 | Royals v. White Sox +143 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 143 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
8* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): The White Sox might be a last place team, but they certainly have some confidence right now after sweeping the Astros here at home. Most impressive is that they were priced at +225, +190 and +140 in the individual games, which included them beating Dallas Keuchel! Now you may be itching to call for some regression here, considering the Pale Hose had dropped six in a row prior to that last series. But I fully anticipate them competing here w/ division rival Kansas City, who has lost four in a row themselves as well as 9 of their last 11 games. A team that is the very definition of "average," the Royals are unaccustomed to being priced at this level on the road. In fact, this will be just the 2nd time all year they find themselves as a ML road fave of -125 or higher. They lost the first one. Even more encouraging is that the White Sox actually have a winning record (10-9) in the same price range as a home dog. The Royals were just beaten badly, losing all four games to the Cardinals while giving up 37 runs in the process. That's certainly not a good sign. They have split 10 games w/ the White Sox this year, but were swept in their lone visit to Guranteed Rate Field (back in April). They did manage to return the favor (three-game sweep) late last month, but two of the wins were of the one-run variety, so the series easily could have gone either way. It's no secret that I'm a big fan of the revenge angle (for a sweep of 3+ games), so I'm "all in" on the home team tonight. The home team will be starting the highly touted Reynaldo Lopez here. While it's Lopez's first start of 2017, he has previous experience in this role. He went 5-3 in 11 starts for the Nationals last year and came over in the Adam Eaton trade. A high strikeout pitcher (always a good sign!), Lopez had 131 K's in 22 starts for Triple A Charlotte this season. This after fanning 42 hitters in 44 IP last season. He'll oppose Danny Duffy here. Duffy has pitched well at times this year, but not vs. Chicago, whom he's 0-2 against w/ an unsightly 11.17 ERA. He's allowed 12 runs and 19 hits in just 12 1/3 IP. Something else to consider is that the Royals' bullpen is struggling - big time - right now. Plus, they've been overworked. Only one of the team's four starters made it a full six innings in the series w/ St. Louis and relievers wound up giving up 19 runs in 16 IP. This is a really good value on the home team as divisional matchup are always a "crapshoot." 8* Chi White Sox | |||||||
08-11-17 | Mets v. Phillies +100 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Phillies were a big winner for me back on Sunday (as a *10* ULTIMATE POWER release over Colorado) and came into this series on a three-game win streak after sweeping a brief two-game series w/ division rival Atlanta (now 11-2 head to head vs. the Braves this season!). But in their return home Thursday, they got humiliated by the Mets, losing 10-0. That Mets' performance was certainly "out of nowhere" as they came in having lost 8 of 10 while batting a collective .187 over the previous week. While it's true that Philly does have the worst record in all of MLB, note their run differential is better than a handful of teams and that latter metric, I find, to be a far better predictor of future success. (Their 28 one-run losses are by far MLB's most). Home teams that get humiliated in the fashion the Phillies were Thursday night, more often than not, come back highly motivated the next day. I'm counting on that here. The Mets had three different three-run innings last night while Phillies' hitters were stymied by Jacob deGrom. I expect the offense to peform better tonight against Seth Lugo, a pitcher who has given up multiple HR's in three consecutive starts. Lugo has managed a positive team start record on the road (4-2) despite having a 5.45 ERA and 1.529 WHIP. That seems pretty lucky to me and the runs allowed side of the ledger has hurt the Mets all season long. In fact, they're giving up an average of 5.5 rpg on the road this year, thereby negating their own scoring average of 5.2 rpg. Only two teams - the Padres and Giants - have allowed more runs per game on the road this season. The bullpen has played its own role in that w/ a 5.59 ERA and 1.600 WHIP away from home. Lugo has never started here at Citizens Bank Park before. Remember that like the Phillies, the Mets are already thinking about next season. They're currently 10 games below .500 and have been outscored by 57 runs over the course of the season. If you're searching for a reason to care about Phillies' baseball the rest of the way, then look to callup Rhys Hoskins, who made his big-league debut yday. While he went 0 for 2 at the plate, the 1B/OF produced a .966 OPS at Triple A Lehigh Valley w/ 29 HR's. For more immediate purposes, there's plenty to like here about starter Nick Pivetta, despite what the overall numbers may look like. Pivetta has a 0.973 WHIP here at home and his last time starting here, he allowed just one run on three hits in 6 IP. Furthermore, he has already beaten the Mets this year, having allowed just one HIT (a solo HR) over 7 IP back on 7.2! That was his best performance to date and if he comes anywhere close to duplicating that tonight, then the Phils should have no problem bouncing back from last night's "disaster." 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
08-10-17 | Dodgers -160 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
8* LA Dodgers (9:40 ET): I felt Arizona was a great value on the run line Tuesday night and took them in what ended up being an "outright" 6-3 victory. I also felt that the D'backs were a great value plus the 1.5 last night as they had Zack Greinke on the bump. Turns out the run line came in handy there as they lost to the Dodgers 3-2. Tonight, however, I'm "switching course." It is Los Angeles, a team that appears to be on an absolute mission, that provides the value as they will be sending Yu Darvish to the mound. Oddsmakers have not hiked the asking price on LA up nearly enough here (compared to the last two days) as - clearly - the pitching edge lies in Dodger Blue's favor moreso than the first two games. The Dodgers adding a pitcher the caliber of Darvish illustrates what an "embarrassment of riches" we are dealing with here. The team - now an astounding 80-33 on the season - is on pace to match the all-time record for wins in a single regular season (114), set by the '01 Mariners. They have outscored the opposition by an amazing 202 runs, which puts them on a pace to finish at +289, which would be the franchise's best run differential since the 1889 team in Brooklyn! Oh by the way, Darvish's debut last week could hardly have been better as he tossed seven shutout innings of three-hit ball w/ 10 K's. He figures to benefit immensely from the move to the Senior Circuit where he'll consistently be facing weaker lineups. Maybe Arizona doesn't seem to fall into that class (average 5.7 rpg here at Chase Field), but five of their last seven games have seen them score four runs or fewer. Countering Darvish will be Anthony Banda and I hardly feel like he'll be up to the challenge. Banda will be making his third start and while his last (last Friday) saw him stand up to Madison Bumgarner and win (as a +135 ML underdog), Darvish and the Dodgers is a far greater task. Banda was able to overcome four walks in that last start, but you can bet the Dodgers would make him pay for a similar transgression. Banda's first start saw him give up four runs. He's only in the rotation due to an injury to Robbie Ray. Among their many other exploits, the Dodgers are 27-10 this year when facing a left-handed starter. 8* LA Dodgers | |||||||
08-10-17 | Twins v. Brewers -156 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -156 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
Play still stands even w/ pitching change! 8* Milwaukee (8:10 ET): There's been a pitching change for the Twins here as they'll now send Dietrich Enns to the mound. It will be Enns big-league debut. Originally, it was to be Kyle Gibson in this spot, but he'll instead pitch tomorrow's series opener vs. the Tigers. While Gibson's 6.03 ERA and 1.70 WHIP would have certainly made for some nice fade material here, the bottom line is that I'm jumping on the Brew Crew here b/c they are looking to avoid what would be an embarrassing four-game, home and home sweep at the hands of their former AL rival. Truth be told, I don't have much regard for a Twins team that should consider itself very fortunate to be at .500 considering they've been outscored by a whopping 61 runs this season. Let's talk a bit about the Brewers' pitcher, shall we? It is Zach Davies and he comes into tonight in fine form. He's 6-1 w/ a 2.38 ERA in his L8 starts, the last four of which have seen him go at least seven innings. In three of those four, he hasn't even allowed a single earned run! Last time out, Davies allowed just one hit in seven shutout innings at Tampa Bay and won as a +140 ML dog. What's most impressive about that performance is it came in an AL park, meaning Davies had to face a lineup w/ a DH, something he is unaccustomed to. Here, it's a Twins team that will have to send Enns up to bat. This will - easily - be the weakest lineup Davies has faced in some time as his last three starts came against the Rays (AL lineup), Cubs and Nationals (#1 in runs scored). Now Milwaukee's own lineup has certainly been scuffling throughout this series. Last night marked just the 4th time all season that they were shut out. They have not topped four runs in any of their last 13 games! But in addition to having their most profitable starter on the hill tonight, this team is 11-3 this season when priced in the -125 to -175 range at home. Enns is a bit of an unknown commodity as he was just acquired from the Yankees in the Jaime Garcia deal. He made just one appearance for the Twins' Triple-A affiliate. I feel like targeting him is the sound move here as Milwaukee is desperate right now, not just because they're in third place in the NL Central for the first time since May 13, but also due to trying to avoid this sweep. A home favorite looking to avoid a fourth straight loss to the same opponent is usually a sound investment. 8* Milwaukee | |||||||
08-10-17 | Indians -142 v. Rays | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -142 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Indians got a "taste of their own medicine" on Wednesday afternoon. After rallying for four runs in the bottom of the ninth Tuesday against the Rockies, it was they that gave up the game-tying run in the top of the ninth yday and would go onto lose, 3-2, in 12 innings. Despite splitting that interleague series, make no mistake about it; the Tribe remains one of the better teams in the American League as is evident by their first place standing in the AL Central and moreso their +98 run differential. This weekend finds them travelling to Tampa Bay to face a Rays team desperately fighting for that final Wild Card spot. There's a clear gap between the top four in the A.L. (Astros, Indians, Red Sox & Yankees) and I look for the superior team to exploit that here w/ Danny Salazar on the bump. Case in point, the Rays have gone 4-6 against the Astros, Yankees and Red Sox these last few weeks w/ three of the wins coming at Houston's expense. They just dropped two here at home to Boston (Tuesday/Wednesday), scoring only two runs in the process. Offensively, there are major problems developing here and they go beyond the Red Sox series. Three times in the last five games, the Rays have been shutout! They've scored just four runs total in those five games, all of them here at home, and yesterday saw them manage only four hits. The team batting average over the last week is .190 and that doesn't figure to improve much going up against Salazar, who has a 1.35 ERA and 0.650 WHIP in his three starts since coming off the DL. Last time out, Salazar struck out 12 Yankees in what ended up being a hard-luck 2-1 loss. The Rays will turn to the still-winless Blake Snell on Thursday. Clearly, having a "0" in the win column at this point of the season is not a good sign. Snell has made 14 starts overall (4-10 TSR) and has a 5.10 ERA and 1.590 WHIP. Last time out, he lasted only four innings and gave up three runs on seven hits, yet the team somehow still emerged victorious over Houston. But you'd have to go back to April to find the last time the Rays won B2B Snell starts. Snell, who has allowed a home run in four consecutive outings, has pitched six innings only twice this year and only four times has he lasted longer than five. He may have to deal w/ Jay Bruce tonight after the Indians went out and got him in a trade w/ the Mets last night. Cleveland has had trouble scoring of late, but is actually 11th in runs scored overall and 5th in OBP. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
08-09-17 | Phillies v. Braves -141 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -141 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The Phillies mastery of the Braves is downright non-sensical when you consider the fact the latter still holds a 9.5 game lead over the former in the NL East standings. Now that's not to say Atlanta is a good team, but they're at least a lot closer to mediocre than is Philadelphia, who still has the worst overall record in MLB. I will conccede the point that there are a number of team w/ worse run differentials (than Philly), but there's no sugarcoating the club's 18-41 road record that has seen them get outscored rather substantially. While the Phillies are now 10-2 against the Braves this year - following last night's 5-2 victory - they are just 31-67 against everyone else and I believe that's the record the matters. Atlanta will have its revenge tonight. In restrospect, last night's play on Julio Teheran may have been misguided when you consider he's now 1-8 in 12 starts here at SunTrust Park. But the Braves still have revenge for a four-game sweep that occurred up in Philly late last month and individually so does Sean Newcomb against Jack Eickhoff. The former certainly pitched well enough to win at Citizens Bank Park back on 7.29, allowing just one run and two hits in five innings. But his bullpen let him down in what ended up being a 4-3 loss for Braves, in 11 innings. That's just a part of what has been a very hard-luck stretch for Newcomb as he's winless over his L6 starts despite allowing 3 ER or less in each of the last three. Three of the Phillies' wins in their four-game sweep of the Braves last month came by exactly one run. Oddly, not counting that series, the Phils are just 12-28 in one-run games. Again, it just doesn't add up. The Braves are due to beat this team. Eickhoff was charged w/ all three runs allowed to the Braves back on 7.29. Admittedly, he's pitched pretty well for a last place team, but I went against him in his last start and was rewarded w/ a 5-4 win by the Angels. Eickhoff allowed three runs in that start as well - on just three hits - but also issued four walks. As I said in my analysis of that matchup, Eickhoff had also allowed 3 HR's in his previous road start. On the road, he has an 0-9 team start record w/ a 5.09 ERA and 1.396 WHIP. Atlanta has at least shown a modest profit in night games this season while Philadelphia has set fire to their backers' bankrolls in such affairs, losing 23.6 units overall. 10* Atlanta | |||||||
08-09-17 | Marlins v. Nationals -166 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Divisional matchups can always be a crapshoot, but still it's been surprising to see the 53-58 Marlins give the 66-45 Nationals so much trouble. The NL East rivals have played five times since July 31st w/ Miami winning three of those games, including 7-3 last night. For the year, the Fish now hold a 6-5 head to head advantage, though the vast majority of the games have been decided by one run (Washington won 3-2 Monday). I look for the Nats to bounce back tonight, however, as they have Gio Gonzalez on the mound and not only is he having a great season, but he's also 8-3 w/ a 1.99 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Miami. Contrast that to Marlins' starter Adam Conley, who has an 8.00 ERA in four career starts vs. Washington. The Nats are one of five teams in baseball w/ a run differential that exceeds +100. For Gonzalez, this will be his first time pitching since 7.31 when he held the Marlins scoreless for eight innings. He was placed on the paternity list soon after, so he should be both emotionally charged and rested. Not only did Gonzalez shut the Marlins out in his last start, but he took a no-hitter into the ninth inning. He's now 2-0 in three starts vs. Miami this year, having allowed only three runs in a total of 21 IP! At home this year, he has a 2.02 ERA and 1.155 WHIP, so he certainly is deserving of better than a 4-6 TSR here. Furthermore, a scuflling Marlins' offense may make things even easier for Gonzalez. In just one of their L10 games has Miami managed at least 10 hits. Last night, they scored seven times, but on only six hits, which is something you don't see very often. The Nats left nine runners on base last night and hit into two double plays. You have to think that an offense which ranks third or better in runs scored, team batting average, OBP and slugging is due to "wake up" sooner rather than later. As mentioned above, they've certainly had Conley's number in the past and the Miami southpaw is coming off his weakest showing since rejoining the rotation after the All-Star Break. He gave up four runs (three earned) in just 5 1/3 IP to Atlanta last Friday and the Braves' lineup is nowhere near as formidable as that of the Nationals. Perhaps most concerning w/ Conley however is how he's recording his outs. For three consecutive starts, he's recorded more outs via fly ball than ground ball and that's typically a sign that trouble could be on the way. 8* Washington | |||||||
08-09-17 | Rockies v. Indians -160 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (12:10 ET): The first-place Indians finally seem to have gotten their act together at home as they're now a season-best five games over .500 at Progressive Field. Last night saw them very nearly waste another marvelous effort from the dominant Corey Kluber, but they instead dealt Colorado a soul-crushing 4-1 loss, scoring all four of those runs in the home half of the ninth. With such a short turnaround, this appears to be a terrible spot for the visiting Rockies. Normally, putting an NL team in an AL park leads to an increase in offense, but this franchise has struggled (throughout its existence) to score on the road (Coors Field effect?) and last night saw them manage just one run (scored in the top of the 1st) on three hits. I don't expect a lot more from them this afternoon. Trevor Bauer pitches today for the Tribe and he's got a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts (2.25 ERA) and has been especially strong in the last two. Here at home, he held both the Angels and Yankees to just one run in a total of 15 IP w/ a 13-3 KW ratio. As I said earlier, the Rockies struggle to score on the road as they're down a full run and a half per game from what they average at Coors Field. They've topped five runs only once in the last seven games and that's w/ only yday's game taking place on the road. Though they're still in good position to bag the National League's second Wild Card, you have to wonder if Colorado is running on fumes a bit. Their YTD run differential (+47) is nowhere near the top three NL teams, nor is it close to Cleveland's (+99). Rockies starter Anthony Senzatela has been trending in the opposite direction of Bauer lately w/ a 10.29 ERA and 1.857 WHIP his last three starts. He's given up 17 runs in 14 IP and that's facing NL lineups that include the opposing pitcher hitting. While he did beat Cleveland back on 6.6, that was at Coors Field obviously. This one simply comes down to the home field edge and the fact that it will be very difficult for Colorado to get over allowing four runs in the ninth last night, especially w/ this short turnaround. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
08-08-17 | Phillies v. Braves -150 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The Phillies have really handled the Braves in 2017, going 9-2 against their NL East rival this season. That includes a four-game sweep in the City of Brotherly Love a little less than two weeks ago. But on the surface, a sweep and for that matter the overall head to head domination make little sense. Atlanta is having the better season of these two teams as they are actually 10.5 games in front of the Phillies in the standings. But something else you must consider is that the Braves are 0-7 when playing in Philly this year. With the scene shifting to Sun Trust Ballpark this week, things should go in their favor. I say that because Philly is an atrocious 17-41 away from home this year, getting outscored by a full run per game. Take the Braves in this revenge spot Tuesday. Julio Teheran is a starter who I earmarked for massive improvement coming into 2017. That really hasn't taken place, however. Last year, he experienced a 10-20 TSR (Team Start Record) despite posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP, indicative of some bad luck. Well, this year's TSR is a more respectable 10-12, but he has an ERA of 5.17 and a WHIP of 1.396. He has really struggled pitching in the Braves' new home ballpark w/ only ONE win in 11 tries. But I'm going to call for him to pitch much better tonight. He should be rested as he only pitched five innings in his last start (cramping) where he held the Dodgers to only three runs on four hits and the Braves pulled a massive upset. By the way, this Braves team has beaten the Dodgers three times since the All-Star Break. Those are the ONLY three times the Dodgers have lost since the Break! Fortunately for Teheran, he'll be facing Zach Eflin tonight. Given the way Eflin had pitched before finding his way out of the rotation, it might as well be Zach Efron that the Phils send to the mound. There had been some discussion that they'd go w/ Ricardo Pinto on Tuesday, but instead it will be Efron, whose previous three starts (all the way back in May) resulted in a disastrous 13.20 ERA and 2.333 WHIP. He allowed 22 runs and 30 hits in 15 IP including SEVEN home runs in the final two starts! This play will stand even if Philly pulls a surprise and doesn't go w/ Eflin, but if they do, we're "money." The Phils are 1-5 on their current road trip w/ the one win (I had 'em!) coming Sunday, by one run, after a late rally. 10* Atlanta | |||||||
08-08-17 | Padres v. Reds -146 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -146 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): I'll be coming right back w/ the Reds today, a rare B2B day recommendation on a poor team. If you read my analysis for Monday's opener, you probably understand why. The short answer is "the Padres are even worse." Cincy having a little bit of revenge here (got swept in SD earlier in the year) helps too. So does the fact that this series is being contested at Great American Ballpark. The Reds are a respectable 27-30 at home this season. But it's the Padres' awful road record that really matters as they are 20-35 away from Petco and getting outscored by 1.7 rpg. That's heavily contributed to their MLB-worst run differential of -143. The Reds took the opener last night by a score of 11-3 and should have no problem rolling again here. Sal Romano is now the fifth starter in the rag-tag Reds rotation and seems to be easing into the role. Over his L3 starts, he's posted a 2.87 ERA and 1.276 WHIP, pretty solid numbers I'd say. Things were trending in an even better direction prior to him allowing four runs in six innings his last time out. Then again, it didn't help there that the offense was shutout. The Reds homered four times yday (3rd day in a row from Joey Votto) and scored 11 times, their highest output in two months. Helping Romano here is the fact the Padres rank dead last in baseball when it comes to runs scored, team batting average and OBP. Over the L7 days, they are batting a collective .210. The Reds really hammered the Padres' bullpen last night, scoring six times in their final two innings. But in yday's analysis I also spoke of starter Jhoulys Chacin's season-long struggles on the road. Sure enough, the Reds got to him for five runs, the most Chacin had allowed in any of his L13 starts! Season-long strugges on the road also apply to tonight's San Diego starter, Luis Perdomo, who has a 1-7 team start record to go along w/ a 4.57 ERA and 1.742 WHIP. As was the case w/ Chacin, Perdomo has recently benefited from some favorable matchups. The last time he had to pitch on the road was in San Francisco and the Giants are also one of the weakest offensive teams in all of MLB. But even since, Perdomo has allowed nine runs in his last two starts (12 2/3 IP) and that was against the Mets and the DH-less Twins. Reds win again tonight. 8* Cincinnati | |||||||
08-07-17 | Padres v. Reds -127 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): This is a battle of two NL also-rans that figures to get little attention from the public. But there's definitely a situation we can exploit here and that's the fact that the last time they met (back in June), the Padres swept. Since that time, they've continued to win at a higher rate than have the Reds, but it is Cincy that still maintains the better run differential (-104 vs. -131), a metric that is far more reliable than won-loss record in judging a team's overall level of performance. This series taking place at Great American Ballpark is also a boon to the Reds as their record is a far more competitive 26-30 here compared to 19-36 on the road. As for the Padres, who I successfully played against both Friday & Sunday, they're 20-34 on the road and being outscored by 1.6 rpg. The Reds have been really bad since the All-Star Break, winning just six times in 23 tries. They had won four of five, however, before dropping the last two games to St. Louis. Sunday did not go well as it was a 13-4 loss, but note they actually had a 3-0 lead after one inning only to fall prey to a huge nine-run inning by the Cards that included a grand slam. The Reds actually could have had an even bigger bottom of the 1st as they were up 3-0 w/ the bases loaded and nobody out. They need not worry about having to win a slugfest here, however. San Diego comes in ranked dead last in MLB in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. Over the last week, the team batting average is a woeful .214. This Reds' starting rotation has been ravaged by injuries this season w/ eight different pitchers finding their way onto the DL. A decision has been made to go w/ Tim Adelman in this spot. Adelman has not pitched since July 29th and had been moved to the bullpen after a poor July. But I look for him to "step up" tonight against the weakest lineup he'll face all season. The Reds are 6-4 this year when Adelman pitches at home. Now San Diego will counter w/ Jhoulys Chacin, who has been in fine form lately w/ 1.96 ERA and 0.927 WHIP his L3 starts. But two of those starts came at home and then he also faced a terrible lineup in San Francisco. Really, his L5 matchups have all been somewhat favorable (favored L2 starts!). But the big key here is Chacin has not pitched well on the road this year (home ERA is lowest in MLB!) as he has a 7.53 ERA and 1.694 WHIP in 10 starts. Given those numbers, a 5-5 TSR should be considered very fortunate. These were expected to be the two worst teams in the National League coming into 2017, but today marks the rare recommendation on the Reds. 10* Cincinnati | |||||||
08-06-17 | Phillies +102 v. Rockies | Top | 3-2 | Win | 102 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (3:10 ET): Surprise! We're doing an "about face" here and doing an 180 degree turn for this game. Yesterday, I was on the Rockies, who unsurprisingly downed the Phillies, 8-5 (jumped out to an early 5-0 lead and never looked back). Everything I said about the Phillies in my analysis still rings true, but the big key for Sunday is that they appear to have what is a decided edge in starting pitching w/ Aaron Nola toeing the rubber this afternoon. Furthermore, I'll point out that even in defeat, the Phils have outhit the Rockies in both games this weekend. Overnight, the money line did some "strange things," meaning it moved in favor of the road team despite the majority of bets being on the other side. I'll call for Philadelphia to end its five-game losing streak here. I've now played against the Phils four times in the last five days, winning every time obviously. They were swept by the Angels, who I took in every game, in a three-game series to start the week. The one game that I laid off was Friday's 4-3 loss here at Coors Field. Last night saw them dig a hole that was too deep to climb out of. Despite all that, I'm prepared - at least for a day - to offer up a rare endorsement. Nola (more on him in a bit) is the primary reason, but it should also be talked about the Rockies have been downright mediocre for the last month or so. They are four games below .500 dating back to June 20th. Their YTD run differential is not close to the top three teams in the National League: Los Angeles, Washington and Arizona. I actually faded Nola the last time he started (Tuesday), but that was an awful spot for the team has they had to go out West on no rest (hosted Atlanta Monday afternoon) while the Angels had the previous day off. Nola still only allowed 2 ER in 6 IP, but it was not enough as the Phils ended up losing 7-1. Still, it kept a streak alive of Nola allowing 2 ER or fewer in eight consecutive starts. He's obviously pitched a lot better than his record indicates. Over those L8 starts, he has a 1.66 ERA w/ a 63-15 KW ratio. Opponents are batting just .205 off him and have a .575 OPS. Nola clearly gets the edge here over Colorado's Jeff Hoffman, who has an ugly 10.38 ERA and 2.385 WHIP his L3 starts. In seven home starts, Hoffman has a 7.05 ERA and 1.757 WHIP. Starting pitching is still what matters most in handicapping MLB and this is a rare time when the Phillies have a huge edge in that department. The team has actually played better than its record this year as they have the run differential of a 44-win team, not a 39-win team. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
08-06-17 | Padres v. Pirates -173 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (1:35 ET): The Pirates sure have had their issues w/ the "bottom rung" of the National League lately. The team's last four series have seen them go a combined 4-7 against the Padres, Giants and Reds. This is the second go-around during this timeframe w/ SD, whom they lost to last night, 5-2. Another loss and that means they would have dropped 2 of 3 in each of the last four series. I was on the Bucs when they took Friday's series opener, 10-6, and I'll jump back on them again Sunday (laid off yday) as they go for that elusive series win. San Diego, despite its minor success vs. Pittsburgh, still has the worst run differential in all of baseball (-134) and that includes some very poor numbers on the road as they're 20-33 and being outscored by 1.6 runs per game. Jameson Taillon last pitched for the Pirates last Tuesday and things did not go well at all as he allowed eight runs and 11 hits in 3 2/3 IP to the Reds. Hard as this may be to believe, but that was actually an IMPROVEMENT over his previous start when he allowed 10 runs (9 earned) in 3 IP at San Francisco. He did not pitch in the previous series w/ the Padres. While there's no "sugarcoating" how bad Taillon has been in those L2 starts, I believe there's a great shot he'll improve dramatically on Sunday. You have to look back and note that his ERA was 3.04 as of late July as he'd allowed 2 ER or fewer five times in his L7 starts. Furthermore, it always helps a pitcher to face these Padres, who rank dead last in MLB (30th) in runs scored as well as team batting average and OBP. Taillon's only prior start vs. them (came last year) saw him toss eight scoreless innings. Also helpful here to Taillon is that his counterpart Clayton Richard is also struggling. Richard has allowed 4+ ER in six of his previous seven outings, the one exception coming against the Phillies, who have the worst overall record in MLB. Richard is just three starts removed from allowing 10 ER himself in a start. He's allowed nine more in the last two as well as 19 hits in 14 IP. Not surprisingly then, Richard has a 7-15 TSR for the season, including 3-7 on the road. His overall numbers are inferior to those of Taillon. Fading an awful team like the Padres when they're off a win just makes sense to me. Over the L3 seasons, they are 46-86 in day games and this season has seen them get outscored by 2.4 rpg in them! 8* Pittsburgh | |||||||
08-05-17 | Phillies v. Rockies -184 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
6* Colorado (8:10 ET): Though they've experienced their fair share of struggles on the road (what else is new?), the Rockies remain a formidable ballclub within the confines of Coors Field and overall are four games above .500 since the All-Star Break. This is a series that they should dominate. They beat the Phillies last night, 4-3, despite losing starter Kyle Freeman in the 1st inning (injury). The win improved them to an impressive 34-20 at home this year as they are averaging 6.2 rpg (most in MLB). As for the Phils, they're just 16-40 on the road and being outscored by a full run per game in those contests. So, like I said, this is a series set up for the Rockies to do well. Philly has yet to win a game in August as they continue to post the worst overall record in MLB. The Phillies did outhit the Rockies last night, 10-7, but led only briefly when they took a 3-2 lead in the top of the seventh. Colorado quickly tied the game up in the bottom half of that frame, then scored the go-ahead run in the bottom of the eighth. It was the second straight night that the Phillies' bullpen failed to protect a lead. What's surprising w/ the Rockies of late is that for four straight games, they've been held below their scoring average here at home. I will call for that streak to end here however as they face Nick Pivetta, who has an ugly 6.70 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in nine road starts this year. Pivetta did pitch well his last time out, but that was a) at home and b) against Atlanta. In two of his last three road starts, he's combined to allow 15 runs in just 7 2/3 IP and those came against two top offensive teams, Milwaukee and Arizona. Of course, as I said earlier, no team averages more runs per game in its home park than do the Rockies. Colorado counters here w/ Jon Gray, who has not been beaten in three home starts this season. Last time out, at Washington, it was a bit of a hard luck loss for Gray as he allowed only four hits in 7 IP at Washington, but two of them were home runs and the team lost 3-1. That was his 1st time allowing multiple HR's in a start this year. He's allowed 3 ER or less in six of eight starts overall. Consider that Philly is one of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball (2nd to last in runs) and they've averaged just 3.0 rpg over the last week. So the "Coors effect" can only help them so much. As for this lofty price range, don't be scared off. The Rockies are 5-1 as a ML home fave of -175 or higher this season and 12-6 in that range the L3 seasons. They are #3 overall for the year in net units earned at the betting window (+16.8) while the Phils are 29th (-20.7). This is every bit the mismatch it appears to be on paper. 6* Colorado | |||||||
08-04-17 | Padres v. Pirates -172 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Over the L10 days, the Pirates have had their fair share of trouble w/ what would be fair to call "inferior" opponents. They've gone just 3-6 against the Giants, Padres and Reds, losing two of three games in all three series. Yesterday (had them!) marked the second straight series that they avoided what would have been embarrassing sweep by taking the finale. It was a 6-0 win over the Reds on Thursday, led by Andrew McCutcheon's play at the plate and in the field. As disappointing as the Bucs' recent play has been, they're still only 5.5 games out of first place in the NL Central. So there's no reason to give up hope yet. Meanwhile, you can't say the same for the Padres, who have the worst run differential in all of MLB (-133) and are 13 games back of the Wild Card. This series should go the Pirates way. Have I said that before recently? Yes. But this time, it happens. Ivan Nova and Travis Wood both pitched in the last series between these teams, but not against one another. Still, Nova is out for revenge here after losing the second game of that series, 4-2, as he was the one charged w/ all four runs (in 5 IP). He did finish w/ 6 K's while not walking a single batter mind you. Of course, that was in Petco Park. Here in Pittsburgh, Nova has been much better this year w/ a 7-2 TSR, 2.83 ERA and 1.116 WHIP. I have to imagine he'll pitch better this time around as San Diego is a dreadful road team and anemic offensively. Not only are they being outscored by 1.7 rpg outside of Petco (19-32 record), but overall they are dead last in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. They rank 27th in slugging. They've gone five straight games scoring four runs or fewer. Wood won the series opener the last time these two clubs faced off, doing so by allowing just two runs (both coming in the 1st inning) on two hits. It was - easily - his most effective outing of the four to date. Acquired in the Trevor Cahill deal w/ Kansas City, Wood has yet to start a single road game this season! I'd look for him to struggle tonight. Consider that previous to his last start, Wood had not gone a full five innings this year. His ERA remains 6.63 and I find it highly unlikely that he could win another pitcher's duel, which is basically the Padres' only way to success as they just don't score enough runs consistently. I still feel the Pirates are capable of staying in playoff contention while SD is - in my opinion - still the worst team in baseball. 8* Pittsburgh | |||||||
08-04-17 | Mariners -147 v. Royals | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:15 ET): The Mariners failed to exact revenge for a sweep that took place early last month, at home, at the hands of the Royals. They did jump out to a 3-2 lead on Thursday, but the bullpen was unable to hold the lead and the final score ended up being 6-4 in the home team's favor. KC went into previous series (at Baltimore) having won 10 of 11, but the "sharp dollars" lined up against them in all three games and they were swept. Interestingly, like Seattle is here, Baltimore was seeking revenge for a prior sweep at the hands of the Royals. Unlike last night, the starting pitching matchup is certainly in the M's favor w/ James Paxton going. His recent form indicates that Seattle gets its revenge here against a KC team which I continue to maintain is "average at best." Paxton has stepped up and become Seattle's top pitcher this year. He is coming off his finest month yet as he went 6-0 in July w/ a 1.37 ERA and as a result was named Pitcher of the Month (and rightly so!). He's allowed just SIX runs during that time (39 1/3 IP) and in the L4 starts his KW ratio is 34-1! It's a 0.45 ERA and 0.850 WHIP his L3 starts. He comes into tonight sporting a 13-inning scoreless streak after shutting out both the Red Sox and Mets, two of the higher scoring teams in baseball (at least on the road). The Royals' offense does not compared to either of those lineups as it only ranks 23rd in runs scored and 28th in OBP. Seattle being in this price range is a good thing as they're 29-9 the L3 seasons as a ML road fave of -125 to -175. Despite an inferior record compared to KC, the M's have the better overall run differential of these two teams. The Royals counter w/ Jason Hammel, who has pitched well himself of late. But I cannot see the team winning for a third straight time as an underdog (would be fourth win in a row overall) w/ him on the mound. Of those last three starts, Hammel (0.947 WHIP) has factored into the decision only once, that being his last time out. KC won at Boston, 5-3, with Hammel going seven strong innings. But he's not the better starting pitcher here and I'm just not buying the Royals are as good as their 11-4 record over the L15 games might seem to indicate. They've pulled out a lot of come from behind victories (32 for the year!) and have still been outscored over the course of the year, despite a 55-51 record. Paxton should be the difference maker here. 10* Seattle | |||||||
08-03-17 | Phillies v. Angels -147 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): I've been "spot on" in this series so far (took the Angels in both games) and will call for them to finish off the sweep tonight. Yes, the Phillies came into Tuesday riding a 5-game win streak (2nd longest of the season!). But they were in a horrible spot, having to go cross-country in a day, as their series w/ Atlanta didn't conclude until Monday afternoon. The Angels had the edge of having Monday off and took full advantage by winning the series opener, 7-1. They scored seven more runs last night, this time holding the Phillies to none. So it's been a real lopsided series to date and I see no reason why that should change Thursday as the Angels have arguably their best starter going and as I've made clear over the L2 days - Philly is just a bad baseball team (worst record in all of MLB). The Phillies are very bad on the road (16-38) and have really struggled in IL play this season, going 4-12. They've been outscored by a full run per game away from home this year and AL teams are beating them by an average of 2.2 rpg! Last night marked the seventh time this season that they've been shutout. Considering the price tag on the Halos each of the last two nights, this seems like a real bargain w/ Philip Bridwell on the bump. The Angels have won the last four times Bridwell has started and his overall TSR is 7-1. Few, including the organization saw this (his success) coming, but a 0.823 WHIP in his L3 starts is no fluke. Each of those L4 starts have been quality as last time out he held Toronto to just one run on three hits over 7+ IP. It was his longest - and perhaps most impressive - outing to date. The Phillies have essentially given up on 2017 and rightfully so. They will trot out the youngest team in the majors the rest of the way w/ most of the players auditioning for next year. That will help over the long-term, but there will be growing pains in the short-term. Already this series has seen their best pitcher (Aaron Nola) get beat, so I don't have much faith in tonight's starter Jerad Eickhoff, even though the team has won each of his last two times out. But both of those starts were at home, the last one coming against lowly Atlanta. Eickhoff has also yet to win on the road (0-8 TSR!) and there's no real "hard luck" involved there as his ERA is 5.17 and his WHIP is 1.425. He gave up three home runs his last road start and Saturday saw him walk as many batters as he struck out (3). 8* LA Angels | |||||||
08-03-17 | Mariners +119 v. Royals | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:10 ET): Kansas City came into its previous series (at Baltimore) on a real roll (had won 10 of 11!), but the "sharp dollars" lined up against them on a game by game basis (I went against them twice) and they wound up on the wrong end of a three-game sweep at Camden Yards (outscored 15-3). Now they'll return home (for the first time in over a week) to host a team that they swept last month, Seattle. The Mariners lost yday, 5-1 at Texas, but overall the current road trip had gotten off to a pretty good start (won previous two days) and overall they'd won four in a row prior to yday's loss. If you're a regular, then you know that I'm a big fan of the revenge angle (for a sweep of 3+ games) and I'll support it here w/ a play on the underdog. Thursday night will mark the first time Trevor Cahill has started at Kauffman Stadium. Recently acquired in a trade from the Padres, Cahill's 1st start in a Royals uniform did not go so well as he allowed five runs and eight hits (two HR's) in just 4 IP. That game was actually KC's only loss in the 11-game stretch that predated the Orioles' series. Remember, it's a difficult transition for a pitcher going from the National to the American League (has to face DH). Cahill's 4-0 home record this year (0.72 ERA and 0.880 WHIP) is irrelevant now that he's out of the friendly pitching confines of Petco Park. The Royals' offensive decline from the last series is also a concern here as they managed only 15 hits in the 27 innings at Baltimore. Remember what I said the L2 times I went against this team - they are "average" at best. Seattle is just 1.5 games back of KC for the 2nd Wild Card in the AL. I don't think either of these teams will end up getting it (will be either TB or LA), but the M's are definitely playing better now than they have all year. Whereas KC has been outscored this season (-12 run diff), Seattle is dead even in scoring compared to its opponents in 2017. They boast both the pitcher (James Paxton) and reliever (Edwin Diaz) of the month (July) on its roster. Paxton and Felix Hernandez will go the next two days, but tonight it will Yovani Gallardo, who beat Jacob deGrom his last time out by allowing just one run over 5 2/3 IP. Offensively, the Mariners are the superior club here as well. 10* Seattle | |||||||
08-03-17 | Reds v. Pirates -153 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Bucs' struggles against the Reds this year are nothing short of astounding. Not only have they dropped the first two games of this series (at home!), but they are now just 1-8 head to head w/ their NL Central rival this season. That makes little to no sense considering Cincy is just 35-62 against everyone else in the league. But, as I pointed out in yday's analysis, the Bucs are coming off B2B disappointing series against the Padres and Giants (two teams worse than the Reds), both times dropping two out of three. But, at PNC Park, I just can't see them getting swept. Not by Cincinnati, who is 19-34 on the road while being outscored by over a full run per game. I'll call for the Pirates' offense to "wake up" tonight and thus they'll avoid what would be an embarrassing sweep. The Pirates offense has been a major reason why the team is struggling to beat bad teams of late. Take the first two games of this series for example. After scoring in the bottom of the 1st on Tuesday, they would go another 13 innings w/o scoring a single run. Last night saw them tie the game in the bottom of the 6th, 2-2, but the bullpen couldn't hold. Looking back, the Pirates are batting a collective .210 their last seven games and have scored three runs or fewer SIX times during that stretch. Not surprisingly, the one exception represents their lone win (7-1 Sunday at San Diego) in the last week. I look for the slump to end today against Sal Romano, who walked SIX batters his last time out, the third time in five starts he's had more walks than K's. Not to be confused w/ the "Mad Men" character of the same name, Romano has a 1.707 WHIP overall. Chad Kuhl gets the starting nod here for the Bucs and he's allowed 2 ER or less eight times in his L11 starts. So, he should be able to keep the Pirates in this one, something that Tuesday's starter (Jameson Taillon) failed to do. Kuhl has not allowed a single HR in his L5 starts, which is huge b/c the long ball is primarily how the Reds have been scoring in this series so far. Yes, the Pirates have struggled to score at home all season long. But I believe they'll score just enough in this one to get the 'W.' 8* Pittsburgh | |||||||
08-02-17 | Phillies v. Angels -184 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): As I anticipated, the Angels took full advantage of a favorable spot last night, beating the Phillies 7-1 in the opener of a three-game series. Philadelphia came in riding high off a sweep of the Braves and had won five in a row overall (2nd longest win streak of the season!). But they were also playing w/o rest after wrapping up that series vs. the Braves and had to make the cross-country flight. Meanwhile, the Angels had Monday off. That edge may not exist for tonight, but the Angels are still the better team - by a wide margin. Therefore, I'll come right back with them again tonight. In case you haven't looked at the standings in awhile, the Phillies still have the worst overall record in all of baseball at 39-65. Yes, it's true that a number of teams have worst run differentials, which is a better indicator of overall play, but the fact remains the Phillies are a very bad team. They are 16-37 on the road, getting outscored by nearly a full run per game. They are also just 4-11 in Interleague Play this season. They also don't have a very good starter on the hill tonight. Jake Thompson, who went 3-6 w/ a 5.40 ERA last season, made his first big league start last week against Atlanta. While the Phils did win 10-3 and Thompson threw five scoreless innings, note he did allow seven baserunners. The Phillies' bullpen is also not good by the way. Don't be scared off due to price range on the Angels here either. Yesterday actually marked the first time all year that they were higher than -175 on the money line! The win improved them to 8-2 in that range the L3 seasons. Yes, it's a small sample size but also indicative of how the Angels peform against bad teams (obviously that's the only time they are going to be this high on the ML. Tonight's starter JC Ramirez actually leads the staff in wins w/ 11. He was a hard luck loser his last time out (2-1 to Indians), but has also gone at least six innings while allowing four runs or fewer four straight starts. He should get plenty of run support here as the Angels are averaging 6.0 rpg over the last week. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
08-02-17 | Reds v. Pirates -150 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates string of disappointing performances against less than stellar competition continued on Monday w/ an embarrassing 9-1 loss to the Reds at home. Previously, the Bucs had dropped two of three at San Diego and two of three at San Francisco, two of the only three teams in the National League w/ a worse overall record than the Reds. Cincy has given Pittsburgh a curious amount of trouble in 2017 as yday's win gives them a 7-1 edge in the season series. Clearly, if you're a Bucs fan, this is NOT what you wanted to see for the stretch run, particularly after the team came out of the All-Star Break by winning seven of eight. But they can still salvage what should have been an advantageous stretch of games. Take them here. Home teams don't like being embarrassed in the manner the Pirates were yday, so there should be some increased motivation here. Not to mention, the Pirates still only trail the Cubs by 6.5 games in the NL Central standings. Charged w/ turning this thing around tonight is starter Trevor Williams, who was a hard-luck loser his last time out. In a 2-1 loss to the Giants, Williams gave up just one run on five hits in 6 IP. While he has a 4.12 ERA here at PNC Park, his 1.118 WHIP indicates he's pitched better than that. The Reds have not faced him in '17. Also, take out a rough first start of the year (had been working out of the bullpen) and Williams' numbers get even better. The Reds are not a good team, which is obvious by their 18-34 record and the fact they've been outscored by an average of 1.2 rpg in those contests. Tonight marks the first time they've been off B2B wins since the All-Star Break. So, now seems like a really nice time to fade. Especially w/ Robert Stephenson on the hill. A reliever previously, Stephenson has had difficulty adjusting to his new role of starter. This will be the third try and I don't think it will be the charm considering his 7.45 ERA and 2.174 WHIP so far. He's only lasted a total of 9 2/3 innings as well, which means the poor Reds' bullpen will come into play. Considering this team's awful 36-62 record against every team besides Pittsburgh, their mastery in the season series is confounding to say the least. 8* Pittsburgh | |||||||
08-01-17 | Phillies v. Angels +101 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 101 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Phillies come into this game riding a five-game win streak (just swept Atlanta), which is their second longest win streak of this entire season! (They won 6 straight back in late April, a streak which also included a sweep of the Braves, coincidentally). They would also appear - on paper - to have the edge in starting pitching for tonight's series opener against the Angels. But you don't have to work for MLB's scheduling department to realize this is a HORRID spot for the Phils as they have to make the cross-country trip in 24 hours while the Halos are rested (had Monday off). Even w/ the five-game win streak, Philly still has the worst record in baseball mind you, at 39-64. That includes a 16-36 mark on the road and 4-10 in Interleague Play. The Angels are a team I believe can make a push for that second Wild Card in the American League, a race that remains wide open. After taking the first two games in Toronto over the weekend, they lost 11-10 on Sunday, but offense certainly wasn't a problem w/ a total of 26 runs scored in the three game series. Offense has been an issue for this team in 2017 (27th in runs scored!), but remember they were also w/o Mike Trout for a significant period of time. With 19 of the next 28 games at home, this is the time to make their move. What about the other side of the ledger (pitching), though? Well, Ricky Nolasco has had his issues w/ the long ball, but I also watched him (in person) pitch well against Cleveland last Wednesday. Though the team lost 10-4, that's misleading as the bullpen came in and did a horrendous job. Going back, four of Nolasco's last six starts have been quality and one of them was a complete game shutout here at home. He's also had to pitch opposite some of the best pitchers in the AL, like Chris Sale and Carlos Carrasco. Here, Nolasco will face a National League lineup that averages less than 4.0 rpg. Sure, the Phils get to benefit from the DH in this series, but will that be enough to counteract their usual road woes? I think not. Plus, there's a "market correction" that's likely to take place sooner rather than later w/ the Phils as a team that has the worst overall record in baseball isn't going to start winning consistently all of a sudden. All five wins came at home and sweeping Atlanta really isn't all that impressive, especially when you consider the last three have all been by one run! Aaron Nola is off a very strong July and has a 1.49 ERA/0.972 WHIP his L7 starts. But the team is just 3-5 when he starts on the road and he had control issues (4 walks) in his one start at an AL park this year. This is not just a game, but a series where I really like the home team. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
08-01-17 | Cardinals +111 v. Brewers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (7:40 ET): Turning to the NL Central, the Brewers have been on top of the Cardinals for virtually all of 2017. But by no means is that any kind of definitive statement that the Brew Crew are the better ballclub. In fact, their run differentials have been fairly comparable throughout and entering today, the Cards' is slightly better (by one run!). St. Louis has allowed the fewest number of runs in the division this year, so if they can get their offense on track, making the playoffs is not out of the question. They scored only five runs in four games vs. Arizona over the weekend (at home!), but still walked away w/ a series split. Fortunately for them, Milwaukee scored only five runs in three games vs. the Cubs, losing twice. Furthermore, they have failed to get a hit in their L31 chances w/ RISP! Not only do I feel the Cards have the better starting pitcher tonight, but I feel they are the better team overall! Carlos Martinez might have a 10-11 team start record attached to his name, but that is misleading as he checks in w/ a 3.52 ERA and 1.190 WHIP. In each of his last two starts, he's gotten the kind of offensive support we are looking for tonight w/ the Cards scoring a total of 21 runs in those games and winning both. Last time out, Martinez struggled some, giving up 5 ER in 6 IP, but he did have 8 K's and that was his most in any July start. Typically, he has always pitched well against Milwaukee as he has 5-2 record w/ a 1.75 ERA all-time. The last time he faced them was May 2nd when he held them w/o a run for seven innings and to only four hits. Considering the way the Brewers' lineup has struggled of late, I expect a quality start from Martinez here. The Brew Crew came out of the All-Star Break by winning B2B games over lowly Philadelphia. That got them to a season-best 11 games over .500, but since then they're just 3-11. Jimmy Nelson is probably the wrong starter to try and turn things around, at least when facing St. Louis. I say that because Nelson has NEVER beaten the Redbirds in 11 career tries, going 0-8 w/ a 7.01 ERA. That's the key here. The Cards have already beaten him twice in '17, scoring seven times off him in 11 innings. Nelson has been hurt by a lack of run support this season and it certainly doesn't help that his offense comes into this series batting a collective .196 over the last week. They have not scored more than two runs in four consecutive contests. 10* St. Louis | |||||||
08-01-17 | Royals v. Orioles -126 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (7:05 ET): I took the Orioles last night and sharp money moved them to a slight favorite before the first pitch. They won 2-1, in walkoff fashion, as Craig Gentry singled home the GW run. Though it took them until the final at-bat to take their first and only lead, that was an impressive win for the Orioles as Kansas City came in as winners of 10 of 11. The much maligned Ubaldo Jimenez held the Royals to just one run on five hits (7 IP) and as I keep saying, this is a much different (i.e. better) team w/ Zach Britton occupying the backend of the bullpen. Yes, Baltimore has its issues (-71 run differential), but they are a better team at Camden Yards (31-21) and have an even better starter going tonight (Dylan Bundy). I look for them to make it two straight over KC. Bundy had been the Orioles' rotation's most profitable starter until yday when Jimenez got the job done. Bundy certainly struggled some in July w/ only one quality outing out of four (allowed 5+ ER three times), but rarely does he pitch poorly in consecutive starts. He pitched well enough to win against Kansas City earlier this year, allowing just two runs and four hits in six innings, but unfortunately it was not enough as the O's fell 3-2 in what ended up being a series sweep for the Royals. That sweep set up yday's play, however, and now I feel it's time for a little payback from the Baltimore perspective. Remember what I said in yday's analysis too - despite their recent winning ways KC is nothing more than the definition of average. Royals starter Ian Kennedy has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, but that's in spite of a 4.32 ERA during that stretch. Granted, he's pitched well in two of those three starts. But his three career starts against the Orioles have resulted in a 6.17 ERA. Baltimore is one of three teams he's never beaten in his career. The Kansas City offense had been performing way above its normal production recently, so yday's "silence" at the plate was NOT a surprise to me. They remain tied for 22nd in runs scored and are 28th in OBP. I'll call for them to lose B2B games here, something that has not occurred in two weeks. 8* Baltimore | |||||||
07-30-17 | Pirates -163 v. Padres | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (4:40 ET): The Bucs have burned me, not once, but twice in this series so far. But I believe they'll avoid the sweep on Sunday. Apparently, they forgot to pack their bats for this West Coast trip, or rather lost them after the first game. I say that b/c, following a 10-3 win over the Giants on Monday, the team has scored three runs or fewer (eight total) in four consecutive losses to the Giants and Padres. In the context of this series, that's a real shame because they're up against the lowest-scoring team in baseball, who has the worst overall run differential as well. Then there's something I've discussed each of the last two days, which is the fact SD came into this series having actually been outscored by about a full run per game here at Petco Park (one of the worst marks in MLB), making their winning home record somewhat of a "mirage." On the flip side, Pittsburgh had a positive run differential on the road despite a losing record. In my opinion, a four-game win streak only makes the Padres better fade material as in my view they're still one of, if not THE, worst team in the sport. Gerrit Cole is a major reason to like the Pirates in this one. He should make sure that a SD offense which not only ranks last in runs scored, but also last in OBP, 29th in team batting average and 27th in slugging, stays anemic. Cole has a 4-0 TSR here in July, all quality starts, as he's allowed just seven runs in 25 IP. The native Californian is 5-1 his L8 starts w/ a 3.04 ERA (allowed 2 ER or less SEVEN times!). He's always pitched well vs. the Padres as is evident by a 1.52 ERA in four career starts against them. Cole was the starter the last time Pittsburgh won a game, so that should give the team some much needed confidence as they prepare to play the final game of what has been a very disappointing road trip. These four consecutive losses to two of the worst teams in baseball have really hurt the team's chances of remaining relevant, even in a weak NL Central. San Diego's Clayton Richard probably deserves better than a 7-14 TSR as he's induced a NL best 247 ground ball outs this season. But he's still got a 5.37 ERA and 1.610 WHIP in those 21 starts and lately things have gone from "bad to worse" w/ a 9.86 ERA and 2.422 WHIP his last three. He's allowed a stunning 37 hits in 17 2/3 IP during that time. To put that number in its proper context, note that Cole has allowed only 44 hits over his L8 starts, a span of 50 1/3 IP. Therefore, I expect the Pirates' anemic offense to "wake up" on Sunday. The Padres are just 9-21 when on a win streak of 3+ games the L3 seasons (3-6 this season) and their only win streak longer than the current one (4 games) this season was 5 games, back on Memorial Day Weekend. 10* Pittsburgh | |||||||
07-30-17 | Braves +101 v. Phillies | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:35 ET): The Phillies are in a position we don't see them in very often and that's on the precipice of a three-game sweep. The team w/ the worst overall record in MLB (37-64) is certainly used to being on the WRONG end of these situations, but this weekend we find them having taken the first two games at Atlanta's expense. I look for the Phils to fail to get the job done on Sunday. Overall, the club has won three in a row. The last time we saw them produce such a streak was early June when they won four in a row. The only other win streak of 4+ games this year occurred all the way back in April, a season-best six straight wins. The Braves have played better on the road this season and daytime starts are typically when knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (today's starter) is most effective. Yesterday's game is really one that Atlanta let slip away as they allowed the Phillies to score a run in the both the 8th and 9th innings, which tied things up. Philly then won in the 11th. The Braves finished w/ the edge in hits (10-8) for the game and it should be noted the teams were also relatively even in that department (12-11 in Phils' favor) in a 10-3 game Friday. The series opener saw the home team strike w/ one big inning (7 runs), other than that we've basically seen in this series what we've largely seen all season from a lineup tied for 28th in runs scored. The good news for today is that Dickey has consistently pitched well in his career vs. the Phillies, turning in a 2.98 ERA in 14 starts, including a game back on 6.8 where he allowed only one run on three hits in 7 IP. He struck out eight while walking zero batters as well. Prior to allowing four runs to both Chicago and Arizona, Dickey had allowed 1 or 0 ER in five straight outings as well as six of the last seven. As mentioned before, his knuckleball is typically more effective in the daytime. The Phillies' counter w/ Vince Velasquez, who also allowed 4 ER in a shorter than expected start his last time out. Velasquez has pitched only twice since May due to an elbow injury, so this is somewhat of a "lost year" for him. In six home starts this season, his ERA is 6.82 and his WHIP is 1.649. Not good numbers, especially when considering the Phillies' offense is likely to regress - significantly - in this matchup. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
07-29-17 | Pirates -124 v. Padres | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (8:40 ET): The Pirates quickly jumped out to a 2-0 lead last night here in San Diego, which had me thinking 3-0 sweep for the day (I'd already cashed both the Under on Rays-Yankees plus my *10* AL Game of the Month on the Rangers). But, sadly, from that point forward the Bucs did nothing - and I do mean nothing. They managed only one hit the rest of the game, facing Travis Wood and three different Padres' relievers, and ended up losing 3-2. That result kind of shocks me as SD has now won three in a row, unremarkable in the grand scheme of things, but for this team it's something to be celebrated. I said in yday's analysis that the Padres have the worst run differential in all of MLB (now -129) and that's still the case w/ only two other teams below -90. They are just 2-6 this season when on a win streak of 3+ games (8-21 L3 seasons!), so yday's win only serves to make them even better fade material for Saturday. Consider this is a "mea culpa" of sorts. Something else I talked about yday was the respective records of Pittsburgh on the road and San Diego at home and how both were misleading. This three-game win streak actually has SD above .500 at Petco Park this season (27-25), but they're being outscored here by nearly a full run per game! To put that in its proper context, only three other teams in all of baseball - Toronto, Atlanta and Minnesota - are being outscored by a wider margin at home this season. (Look to fade all 4 down the stretch at home?). Meanwhile, the Pirates' losing road record (now 23-30) is also misleading in the sense that they have actually OUTSCORED the opposition in such games. Maybe I was wrong yday, but I still look for these discrepancies to be rectified over the remainder of the season. San Diego made a pitching change yday, turning to Wood instead of Dinelson Lamet. The latter will now go tonight. He's got a 7.36 ERA and 1.840 WHIP his L3 starts, so I'd look for the Bucs' bats to bounce back this evening. Speaking of bouncing back, that's what I look for Pittsburgh's starter Ivan Nova to do as well. Last time out, he was hit hard, allowing 7 ER in 5 IP. But that was at Coors Field, a far different environment than the one he will pitch in tonight. The Padres have the most anemic offense in the game, ranking last in runs scored and OBP, 29th in team batting average and 27th in slugging. Nova can stil claim to be having a quality season, despite what happened last time around, which was - easily - his worst effort to date. Prior to that, he'd never allowed more than 4 ER in any start this year. 10* Pittsburgh | |||||||
07-29-17 | Astros -120 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
8* Houston (6:10 ET): Coming into 2017, many (myself included) were high on the Astros, believing they had the roster construct to win a World Series. We're now four months into the season and it's clear that a lot of people knew what they were talking about. The Astros are now 68-34 w/ a +175 run differential, only bested in both categories by the Dodgers, a team that is getting a number of career years from different players. The Astros' run is even more remarkable when you consider they'd been w/o ace Dallas Keuchel the last month. Keuchel returned last night and the offense picked up up w/ a late rally, winning 6-5 here in Detroit after another meltdown by the Tigers' bullpen. The Astros' starting rotation also recently got another key component back, that being Colin McHugh, who will make just his second start of '17 today. I like the road team a lot in this one. Shoulder problems kept McHugh sidelined the first four months of the season. He returned last Saturday at Baltimore and while McHugh did not factor into the decision, Houston won anyway 8-4. Certainly, McHugh could have been better as he allowed four runs in 4 2/3 IP, all of them coming on 2 HR's. But, after such a long layoff, you'd expect him to not be that sharp. For start #2, I'm projecting significant improvement. Keep in mind that this is a pitcher that has won 43 games the previous three seasons. The Astros' performance on the road this year has been nothing short of remarkable as they are now 38-13 and averaging 7.1 rpg (no other team averaging more than 5.6!). They are outscoring teams by 2.7 rpg away from home (that's incredible) and are 16-4 this year when priced between -125 and -175. The absence of Carlos Correa hasn't seemed to matter as Jose Altuve is putting up an "all-timer" month w/ a .506 batting average and 19-game hit streak! Meanwhile, I expect Detroit to be a seller at the trade deadline. Even in a weak AL Central, they are not a factor as the current four-game losing streak has them 11 games below .500. Their starter for Saturday is Mike Boyd, who recently became a father, but that's about the only positive development for him here in 2017. Yes, Boyd does have a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts. But that's in spite of a 5.74 ERA and 1.468 WHIP, numbers right in line w/ his YTD performance. Prior to the team winning each of those L3 starts, they'd lost six straight times w/ him on the mound. The key has been scoring 24 runs those L3 starts, an average which can't be maintained and will certainly dip after tonight. All three starts were also on the road, against division foes. At home, Boyd has a 1-4 team start record. In two career starts against the Astros, his ERA is 7.20. This sets up as a complete mismatch on Saturday. 8* Houston | |||||||
07-29-17 | Mets -130 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (4:05 ET): Seattle had a bit of an edge heading into Friday's opener w/ the Mets in that they had Thursday off while the Mets finishing up a series in San Diego. But they failed to take advantage, losing 7-5 as they allowed the Mets to rally for three runs late (8th inning). This weekend's lone Interleague set continues Saturday and this time, it's the Metropolitans w/ what I believe is a clear edge, in the form of Jacob deGrom, who is as hot as any pitcher in baseball right now. deGrom comes into today w/ an 8-0 TSR his L8 starts. He's gone at least eight innings five times during the stretch and another win today would pull him into a tie for most in the National League. As you might have suspected, he's been pretty dominant during this stretch, allowing 1 or 0 ER six times. Last time out, deGrom went eight full innings and gave up just two runs on five hits. I said he was being undervalued there (was only -160 facing the Padres) and the same holds true here. That last performance dropped his ERA and WHIP over his last three starts to 1.59 and 0.882 respectively. While adjustments must be made for pitching in an American League park, expect deGrom to also benefit here from some additional offensive support. The Mets have been one of the highest scoring teams on the road this year (5.3 rpg), ranking third overall in that department (trailing only Houston & Washington). Now they get to benefit from the use of the DH. In three games in AL parks this season, the Mets have totaled 19 runs. Overall, they are now 6-3 in Interleague Play. Meanwhile, the Mariners have been struggling offensively of late, hitting a collective .217 the L7 games. That's not good news when sending Yovani Gallardo to the hill. The veteran has really struggled here in 2017. He has a 5-10 TSR in 15 starts w/ a 6.25 ERA and 1.575 WHIP. If that's not bad enough, his ERA and WHIP at home are 7.29 and 1.619, resulting in a 2-6 team start record. He returned to the rotation last Sunday and gave up three solo home runs here in a 6-4 loss to the Yankees. With all three HR's allowed being solo shots, he's fortunate to have not given up even more runs. Even worse, of the 15 outs recorded by Gallardo, only three were via ground ball. Keep in mind that he'd allowed 5 ER in three of his four starts previous to that one. This is a big pitching mismatch that is not being priced properly. 10* NY Mets | |||||||
07-28-17 | Orioles v. Rangers -130 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show |
10* Texas (8:05 ET): A classic revenge spot here as the Rangers were swept up in Camden Yards last week and now get the Orioles in Arlington. The change in venue should lead to a swift change in results considering Baltimore's lousy 18-32 road record (30-21 at home). Furthermore, we know the O's should feel quite fortunate to even be within "sniffing distance" (five games under) .500 right now considering their YTD run differential is a terrible -74, third worst in the American League. They come into this series having dropped B2B games (at Tampa Bay) and four of six overall since the sweep of the Rangers, who are of course having a much different season this year compared to last. The 2016 club, which won 95 games, only outscored opponents by EIGHT runs over the course of the entire season. This year's team is three games below .500, but w/ a somewhat comparable +1 run diff. Texas has won four of six since getting swept in Baltimore, but obviously has some additional atonement on its mind after being humiliated (lost 22-10) by Miami here at home Weds night. The starting pitching matchup appears to be drastically in the home team's favor here. I say that knowing full well that Chris Tillman beat Andrew Cashner back on 7.17. That was actually one of Tillman's better starts all year as he held the Rangers to just one run on two hits over six innings (did have four walks). But overall, it has been a disastrous year for the Baltimore starter as he comes into tonight w/ a 7.01 ERA and 1.940 WHIP in 13 overall starts. Mirroring his team's performance, Tillman has been just dreadful on the road, where he is winless in four tries and has a 12.34 ERA and 2.742 WHIP. The decline of Tillman was somewhat easy to foretell as LY's success at the betting window (T3 in net units!) did not match his ERA & WHIP, both of which were only average at best. He has a career 5.08 ERA pitching here in Arlington. Meanwhile, Cashner is having a solid July for Texas even though it hasn't really translated into the win column. Pitching opposite Tillman on 7.17, he allowed only three runs on six hits in 6 1/3 IP. He followed that up w/ another quality effort, this time getting the win as he held Tampa Bay to three runs and four hits in 6 IP last Saturday. Overall, Cashner has a 2.75 ERA and 1.068 WHIP here in July. The Rangers clearly have a bad taste in their mouths after the way the previous series ended, but the good news is that the offense scored 10 runs in B2B games! They are 23-14 the L3 seasons after allowing 10+ runs the previous game and here at home they average a healthy 5.6 rpg, one of the highest averages in all of MLB. I expect the home team to roll Friday night. 10* Texas | |||||||
07-27-17 | A's v. Blue Jays -157 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
8* Toronto (12:37): Similar to St. Louis-Colorado yday, I smell as sweep here as Toronto has handled Oakland in this battle of last place teams. While it's by no means been a dominant performance by the Blue Jays, the A's have to be crushed after last night where they gave up B2B home runs in the bottom of the ninth to lose the game, 3-2. The A's also have the worst road record in the American League (16-34) and have dropped 11 of their last 12 here in Toronto going back several seasons. They've lost seven of their last nine overall as well coming into today's finale. While the Jays still actually have a slightly worse YTD run differential compared to the A's, in terms of "true talent," I don't think I'm alone in thinking they are the better team here. Marcus Stroman facing an anemic offense is the final nail in what should be a lopsided affair. Though he has little to show for it in the win column, Stroman has pitched very well of late. Sure, there have been some control issues, but he has a 1.37 ERA in four starts this month and has allowed just 1 ER in his last 14 1/3 IP. Last time out is when he allowed that earned run, in what turned out to be a hard-luck loss (2-1) at Cleveland. Going back five starts, Stroman has allowed a total of just 4 ER and no homers. The lineup he'll face today has done next to nothing in this series. The Oakland bats have produced just five runs on 11 hits in the three games and twice been held to three hits or fewer. So this is really an ideal matchup for Toronto's top pitcher. For the year, the A's are averaging just 3.8 rpg on the road w/ a team batting average of .233. Not good. Oakland isn't just losing consistently on the road, they're getting dominated. That's evident by the fact they've been outscored - on average - by 1.4 rpg, one of the worst marks in all of baseball. That certainly makes today's task tough for starter Sean Manaea, who has been slumping to begin with. Manaea gave up four runs and 10 hits - in only 5 2/3 innings - his last time out, a 6-5 loss to the Mets. He does have a win over the Blue Jays earlier this year, but that was at home. Behind Manaea is a bullpen that obviously has zero confidence after last night and already had a 5.49 ERA and 1.470 WHIP on the road anyway. 8* Toronto | |||||||
07-26-17 | Rockies v. Cardinals -152 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (8:15 ET): I smell a sweep here in St. Louis as the Cardinals are fighting their way back into contention. Really, there's no reason to believe that the Redbirds can't win a wide open NL Central as the L2 days have shown. They've beaten Colorado (a current Wild Card team) two straight times, holding them to only four runs in the process. Remember that St. Louis, despite a losing overall record (49-51) has a better YTD run differential than the Cubs (+27 to +26)! Colorado, as has been the case throughout the franchise's history, just can't score enough consistently on the road and now they have to face the Cards' best pitcher (Carlos Martinez) in tonight's finale. Time to break out the brooms at Busch Stadium. After a dominant 8-2 win on Monday, it was a walkoff win last night for the home team, though they never actually trailed in the game. They had jumped out to a 2-0 lead after the first inning, but Colorado was able to tie the game w/ runs scored in both the seventh and eighth innings. No team in baseball has lost more games in which they have held a lead of two or more runs this season than St. Louis, but they were able to avoid adding another to the list as Harrison Bader (called up earlier in the day) scored the GW run. The Rockies have yet to hold a lead in this series and their offensive production dropping almost a full two runs per game on the road is starting to become an issue. They had half the number of hits St. Louis did last night. Martinez is deserving of far better than a 9-11 TSR for the Redbirds. Completely disregard the fact that a start earlier this season vs. the Rockies resulted in a 10-0 loss as he allowed only three runs in 7 IP. He was the beneficiary of a late-inning explosion his last time out, however, as a nine-run eighth inning by the Cards propelled them to an 11-4 road win over the Cubs, which I was on as Martinez was +125 on the ML. He has a 2.90 ERA and 1.039 WHIP in 10 home starts this year. I look for him to silence the slumping Rockies bats. Meanwhile, Colorado starter Jeff Hoffman has NOT pitched well of late, turning in an 8.44 ERA and 1.875 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he gave up seven runs in just three innings. Hoffman was one of several early season surprises in this Rockies' rotation, but he has since given up 29 runs in his L33 IP. The Cards are a team to watch here in the second half. 10* St. Louis | |||||||
07-26-17 | Marlins v. Rangers -177 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -177 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
8* Texas (8:10 ET): A number of big-name pitchers are rumored to be changing teams at the trade deadline and Yu Darvish's name can be counted among them. But while this may be a lost season for the Rangers, they may want to think twice about dealing away a starter of this caliber. Yes, he's gone 0-4 w/ a 4.26 ERA his past seven starts, but he did overcome allowing three HR's his last time out (all solo shots) as he struck out a season-high 12 batters. (Texas would go on to win the game, 4-3, at Tampa Bay). Darvish has 10+ K's 32 times in his career plus his control has generally been excellent of late w/ one walk or fewer issued in eight of the last 10 outings. Though below .500, the Rangers have outscored opponents this year (stark contrast to last season!) and they should roll today over Miami. It was the offense that carried Texas yday in a 10-4 win. Among their 15 hits were four home runs and their 31 total bases marked a season-high. As I've discussed previously, predictable regression in one-run games has hurt the Rangers this year as they've gone from 36-11 in '16 (all-time best mark in MLB history!) to 10-15 in '17. But poor hitting w/ RISP has also hurt them. That wasn't the case Tuesday however, nor should it be today against Jose Urena, who has a 5.79 ERA and 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, Urena looked good, but that was against Cincinnati. That should also then tell you just how bad he was the previous two starts as he gave up eight runs in eight innings, including four home runs. Urena has only had to make one start in an AL park this season (meaning he has to face a DH and not the pitcher) and it went horribly as he allowed six runs in 4 IP to lowly Oakland. It was his least effective start to date. Texas has generally had its way w/ the National League this season, going 10-3. They're 34-19 in IL play the L3 seasons, not too surprising considering how the American League - in general - tends to dominate. The last season that the NL produced a winning record in IL play was 2003. Miami is 21-37 its L58 games vs. AL opponents. It doesn't help that their lineup will be missing Justin Bour today. If this is the final start for Darvish in a Rangers uniform, expect him to go out a winner. 8* Texas | |||||||
07-26-17 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -181 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
6* Arizona (3:40 ET): I was a bit shocked to see the Braves beat the D'backs yday, although maybe I shouldn't have been given the presence Mike Foltynewicz, who threw another six strong innings as Atlanta won for a NINTH consecutive time w/ him pitching. But Foltynewicz can't pitch every day and w/ Arizona owning one of the top home records in all of baseball (currently 35-18), I see them bouncing back this afternoon. Yday's starter, Taijuan Walker, held the Braves w/o a hit for the first three innings and the only run he allowed in the first five innings was unearned. Atlanta poured it on late, breaking open a game that was tied 2-2 entering the 7th. The D'backs still have one of the top run differentials in all of baseball however (+109), and they have the - clear - edge in starting pitching today. Only Houston and the Dodgers have outscored the opposition by a wider margin over the course of 2017 than have the D'backs, who average 5.7 rpg here at Chase Field. It makes little sense as to how Atlanta could be 4-1 head to head w/ Arizona this season. Remember though, they did not have to face either Zack Greinke or Robbie Ray in the previous series. They avoid Ray again here (lost to Greinke Monday), but I feel Pat Corbin is very likely to hold the Braves in check here. He pitched fairly well in the last series vs. Atlanta (on the road), allowing only two runs in 5 IP. He followed that up by allowing just 1 ER in 7 1/3 IP last time out, at Cincinnati. His numbers are much better at home and he's actually allowed 3 ER or fewer in EIGHT consecutive starts. His ERA over the previous seven is 2.81. As a home favorite of -175 to -250 on the ML, the D'backs are 7-1 this season and 13-4 the L3 seasons. Atlanta will be sending out Aaron Blair, who is making his 2017 debut here. He was actually originially drafted by Arizona, but never made the big league club. He did pitch at this level LY for the Braves, but was hardly effective in going 2-7 w/ a 7.59 ERA. This is one of the toughest venues in the league to pitch as the D'backs are just so prolific here at Chase Field. The Braves have been a surprisingly effective road team this season, but winning two straight against a vastly superior foe (w/ a questionable starter) seems unlikely. 6* Arizona | |||||||
07-25-17 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -147 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -147 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
8* Arizona (9:40 ET): In the teams' first series after the All-Star Break, the Braves swept a three-game series from the D'backs, doing so in somewhat of a convincing fashion (outscored them 19-9). However, as discussed in my analysis of yday's game, the Braves really benefited there from not having to face either of Arizona's top two pitchers - Zack Greinke or Robbie Ray. They faced Greinke last night and even north of -200 on the ML, I felt he was a tremendous value. Sure enough, he tossed eight strong innings and the D'backs rolled to victory 10-2. Tonight's starter for Arizona, Taijuan Walker, may not be Greinke, but he's being just as undervalued IMO as the other key to handicapping this series is the D'backs' prowess at home. Last night's win elevates them to 35-17 this season at home where they're outscoring the opposition by 1.7 rpg. At 5.7 rpg, they are the third highest scoring home team in all of MLB. Atlanta is simply outgunned here. Walker did pitch in the last series w/ the Braves. While he obviously didn't win, he pitched well, giving up only two runs and five hits in 6 IP. While he pitched well, I thought it was a mistake leaving him in the game for that final frame. Not only did he kill a possible big inning for the offense by grounding into an inning-ending double play, but in the bottom half of the sixth, he allowed a home run. Nevertheless, I will credit Walker for giving up 3 ER or less in six of his last seven starts. The D'backs actually wound up in position to still win the game (led 3-2 going into the bottom of the eighth), but the bullpen blew it. Walker's numbers at home aren't great, but he's likely to get far more support here than he did on 7.14. He also hasn't pitched since, so he's well-rested coming off 10 days in between starts. An obvious reason as to why the ML is not substantially higher here is that Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz has seen the team win each of his last EIGHT starts. The last four have come as underdogs of +187, +120, +155 and +160. That's quite a return on investment and doesn't even include a win as a +210 ML dog vs. Stephen Strasburg and Washington last month. But the buck stops here. Though he's allowed 3 ER or less in all but one of those eight starts, Foltynewicz has a 4.08 ERA and 1.586 WHIP his L3 starts, which are not good numbers (particularly the latter). He's been fortunate not to allow more runs as he's given up 22 hits and six walks in 17 2/3 IP. One of those L3 starts came against this D'backs lineup and he allowed three runs in 5 1/3 IP. Look for him to give up a lot more this time as Arizona scored 10 times last night and - as detailed above - is a far more prolific lineup here at Chase Field. 8* Arizona | |||||||
07-25-17 | Royals v. Tigers -130 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:10 ET): The Tigers, specifically Justin Verlander, failed to exact revenge for a prior loss on Monday, but the 5-3 loss (in 12 innings) failed to dissuade me that they are the better overall team here. The same angle presents itself tonight and in the case of Michael Fulmer, I believe the second time will be the charm. Fulmer lost his last time out, in embarrassing fashion, 16-4 to these Royals. He'll once again be facing off against Danny Duffy, who - despite that win last Thursday - still has numbers that are mediocre, at best. Even though they've won six in a row, the Royals have been outscored this season and have a run differential (-19) that's almost identical to the Tigers (-21), who are eight games below .500. Good value on the home side tonight. I feel that the change in venue from last Thurs should do wonders for Fulmer's performance here. He said it himself in regards to his last start, in KC's Kauffman Stadium, "...last time out it was 37 pitches in the first inning and 100-degree heat. You get tired real quick, so my second and third innings I wasn't crisp. I think it just boils down to the fact I threw way too many pitches in that first inning." Certainly, Fulmer has pitched better at Comerica Park than on the road this season. His TSR at home is 7-3, due in large part to a 1.049 WHIP. Last time he worked here, he went eight innings and gave up only one run and two hits. That was a career-worst start his last time out and I expect a bounce back from a pitcher who is currently #2 in the American League in quality starts. As for Duffy, he's been better since returning from the DL, especially in the control department (no walks L3 starts). However, lost in last week's lopsided win over the Tigers is the fact Duffy gave up a four-run fifth, meaningless for that game, but not in the grand scheme of things. Note that in his last road start, Duffy allowed five runs - and that came at pitcher friendly Dodger Stadium. He still has an ERA above 4.00 lifetime against the Tigers. I just think it speaks volumes that Detroit is favored on the money line in this series, a price I happen to agree with. Sure it helps that they're at home (where they average 5.3 rpg for the year), but also the Royals just also aren't as strong as recent results would seem to indicate. Keep in mind that half of their current win streak includes a sweep of the lowly White Sox. 10* Detroit | |||||||
07-24-17 | Pirates -149 v. Giants | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (10:15 ET): This is a revenge series for the Bucs, who got swept (at home!) by the Giants back in early July. Actually, the road team has experienced a great deal of success in head to head matchups between these two clubs as the Pirates are a perfect 6-0 here in San Fran the previous two seasons. This will be their first visit of '17 and what they'll encounter is a Giants team that has fallen both fast and hard from previous years. No team has lost more at the betting window than has SF (-27.9 units) as they continue to be mispriced based on reputation and the expectation they'll "turn things around." But they couldn't even win a series against the lowly Padres here at home over the weekend, dropping three of four to them. I look for the Bucs to get some revenge tonight, led by Gerrit Cole. Pittsburgh also had a somewhat disappointing weekend as they lost both Saturday and Sunday in Colorado. But they'd won six straight prior to that as they desperately try and remain relevant in the NL Central race. Despite being a game below .500, they're only three games off the pace in the division. Compare that to the Giants, who know they're done for the season as they trail the Dodgers by 30.5 games (!) in the West and are 19 games back of the Wild Card. Since sweeping the Pirates, they've lost 11 of 16. They have just ONE win by more than one run in July. Meanwhile, the Bucs have gone in the opposite direction, winning 12 of their last 17 games since the Giants series. Tonight marks just the fourth time all year that they've been priced as a road favorite of -125 or higher on the ML, which says a lot about their opponent. It is my view that tonight's starting pitching matchup is a massive mismatch in favor of the visitors. Cole comes in having gone 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 2.37 ERA and 0.947 WHIP. He's allowed just five runs in 19 IP and has a 22-1 KW ratio. Six of his last seven starts have seen him allow 2 ER or fewer, the exception coming against the Giants. But, he's typically pitched well against this opponent, turning in a 3.21 ERA in five starts total. San Francisco has a weak lineup that is 28th in runs scored, 25th in team batting average, 29th in OBP, 30th in slugging and 30th in home runs. In order to be successful, Giants starter Matt Cain will need an amount of run support he's unlikely to get here. In 18 starts this year, Cain has a 5.42 ERA and 1.640 WHIP. The Pirates did not get to face him in the last series. Cain's strikeout numbers remain very low, which is never a good sign. A Giants team which has its most losses through 100 games (62) since moving to San Francisco (in 1958!) will see its nightmare season continue tonight. 10* Pittsburgh | |||||||
07-24-17 | Mets -157 v. Padres | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (10:10 ET): There are many huge mismatches on the Monday card, which is why my card is so unusually large (this is a good thing!) on a day like today. One such mismatch takes place here in San Diego where the host Padres actually come in having won three of four (against the last place Giants). But any kind of sustained success should not be expected from this ballclub, which still owns the worst overall run differential in MLB at -132. The Giants are -114, but no other NL team is below -80, which right there should tell you how bad this team can truly be. It's really tough imagining them mounting much of a challenge against the Mets, who will send the red hot Jacob deGrom out to the bump. On paper, this sets up as perhaps deGrom's easiest start of 2017. San Diego ranks dead last in baseball in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. It's not as if deGrom needs a lot of help right now either. He's 7-0 his L7 starts w/ a 1.51 ERA and 0.820 WHIP and he's allowed 1 or 0 ER in six of those seven starts! In his last 28 1/3 innings of work, deGrom has allowed only 22 hits and has a 31-3 KW ratio. In four career starts against the Padres, he has a 1.80 ERA. On the other hand, San Diego starter Clayton Richard comes into this Monday matchup hardly in fine form. His last start saw him allow 11 runs and 14 hits in just 3 2/3 IP! While that came at Coors Field, it should be noted that Richard had allowed 11 hits in 5 2/3 IP his previous start and that took place here at home. To put those numbers in their proper perspective, Richard has allowed more hiits in his last 9 1/3 IP (25) than deGrom has in his last 28 1/3 (22)! WOW! Richard has allowed 4 ER or more in four of his last five starts and if there's one positive aspect (besides deGrom) this Mets team brings to the table this year, it's that they average 5.3 runs per game on the road. That's the third most in all of baseball! 8* NY Mets | |||||||
07-24-17 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -180 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 15 m | Show |
8* Arizona (9:40 ET): I, for one, was shocked that the price on Zack Greinke and Arizona isn't far higher here. After all, they're at home where they own a 34-17 record and are outscoring visitors by 1.7 runs per game. Only two teams, one of them Colorado, are averaging more runs per game at home than are the D'backs. Perhaps this low price (by Greinke standards) has something to do w/ the fact Atlanta was able to split four games w/ the Dodgers at Chavez Ravine over the weekend (impressive when you think about it). Or maybe it has something to do w/ the Braves sweeping the D'backs in the first series after the All-Star Break. But that series took place down in Atlanta and not only did Grienke not pitch, neither did Robbie Ray. I suspect Arizona will be exacting some revenge to start the week. Though they've fallen behind the Dodgers by 11.5 games in the NL West, Arizona still holds one of MLB's best run differentials at +106. Only three teams are better and those are Houston, the Dodgers and Washington. They did just drop two of three to the Nats here at home over the weekend, but did beat Max Scherzer on Friday. This is an impressive home team, especially when Greinke is on the hill as they've gone 10-1 in his 11 Chase Field starts this season. Overall, Greinke is having another fantastic year w/ a 2.97 ERA and 1.047 WHIP. Coming off a long rest (12 days!), he wasn't as sharp as per usual vs. Cincinnati last Wednesday, but that was also on the road. At home, he has a 0.873 WHIP and has allowed just three runs and 10 hits his L19 IP here. Again, I actually consider this price range to be a bit of a bargain considering Arizona is 6-1 this year as a ML home fave of -175 to -250 and 12-4 in that range the L3 seasons. The Braves counter Greinke w/ veteran knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who has actually gone at least six innings in six consecutive starts. But after allowing 1 ER or fewer in each of the first five, Dickey was tagged for four in an 8-2 loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. His 5.55 ERA and 1.511 WHIP on the road (eight starts) are cause for concern, especially in this hitter-friendly ballpark. While Atlanta did split w/ the Dodgers over the weekend, they did lose the L2 games. After a tough series such as that one (extra inning loss yday), it's tough to envision them winning against Greinke tonight. 8* Arizona | |||||||
07-24-17 | Reds v. Indians -178 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): Might this past weekend have been a significant turning point in the defending AL Champs' season? Clearly the best team in their division, the Indians have struggled to pull away from the pack due in no small part to a shockingly subpar record at home. But after sweeping the Blue Jays (in impressive fashion) Friday-Sunday, their record is at least now .500 here at Progressive Field. As I just stated, the Tribe are clearly the best that the AL Central has to offer, an assertion backed up by the run differential column where they are +81 for the year and no other division rival is "in the black" (positive). Another area where the Indians have performed much more poorly than expected is in Interleague games where they're just 4-13 for the year. They'll have a shot at rectifying that a bit tonight w/ a make-up game, hosting lowly Cincinnati. Though I played the Reds on Sunday (successfully, I might add), they clearly are overmatched in this instance. Yesterday's 6-3 win over Miami certainly cannot erase what was a terrible homestand overall, one that saw the team go 2-8 while getting outscored 72-31. Their pitching staff allowed 23 home runs in the 10 games, a number which is almost mind-numbing. I took them yday, in part, because I thought they had the edge in starting pitching (Miami went w/ the horrid Tom Koehler). That's not the case here as the Reds will hand the baseball to Tim Adelman, who over his L3 starts has produced a 6.46 ERA and 1.566 WHIP. Adelman has allowed at least one HR in TEN consecutive outings. By the way, if the Reds thought the homestand was bad, things may only get worse as they're just 16-28 on the road this year and getting outscored by 1.2 rpg. Cleveland goes w/ Josh Tomlin in this spot. He beat a National League opponent in his most recent outing, San Francisco, by allowing just three runs and six hits. This will actually be his third straight start facing an opponent from the Senior Circuit. Back on 7.6, in this ballpark, he also turned in a quality start at San Diego's expense. Facing the Padres, Giants and Reds (NL's 3 worst?) is a pretty favorable stretch for a starting pitcher and note Cincy comes into this series averaging fewer than 3.0 rpg their L7 contests. Tomlin has great control as well, leading the AL w/ only 1.0 BB per nine innings. The Cleveland offense really woke up over the weekend, outscoring Toronto 23-5 in three games. I expect that to carry over to tonight. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
07-24-17 | Royals v. Tigers -142 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -142 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
8* Detroit (7:10): The Royals got to thoroughly enjoy a weekend visit from the White Sox, whom they swept rather convincingly. I was on them in one of the wins (Saturday), but now they have to hit the road for the first time since the All-Star Break. Their current five-game win streak began with a pair of wins over Detroit at home and now the Tigers - specifically Justin Verlander - get a shot at revenge in their park Monday. The Tigers just completed a winning road trip (went 4-3) w/ a win Sunday (9-6 at Minnesota) and Verlander will get to face the same pitcher he lost to (Jason Hammel) in a hard-luck decision last Wednesday. I feel that the scenario, with the change in venue and "immediate revenge" factor w/ the starting pitchers, is tailor-made for the Tigers to exact some payback on KC here. That four-game series at Kauffman Stadium last week actually saw the Tigers take the first two games, both in commanding fashion. They won 10-2 and 9-3 before Verlander & Hammel took the mound for the rubber match and the latter came out on top 4-3. Verlander certainly pitched well enough to win, allowing just two runs in 7 IP w/ an 8-1 KW ratio. Save for one bad start against Cleveland on 7.2, Verlander has pitched well over the last two months. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in 9 of his past 10 starts. Also, his ERA is nearly two full points lower at home than it is on the road. His career win total against the Royals (23) is his most against any opponent and he has a 3.18 ERA in 44 starts against them. So it's rare to see him lose to KC, let alone twice in the same week! Conversely, it's pretty rare to see Hammel pitch so well against Detroit as he owns a 6.98 ERA in 11 career outings against them. This is a pitcher who began the year 1-6 w/ a 6.18 ERA. He's turned it around somewhat over the L2 months, but a 5.08 ERA and 1.752 WHIP on the road are still cause for concern. Despite being three games over .500, the Royals have still been outscored over the course of this season (-21 run differential). They are not nearly as good on the road as they are at home. Meanwhile, despite being seven games below .500, the Tigers actually have a better YTD run diff than the Royals (-19)! Verlander and company get revenge tonight. 8* Detroit | |||||||
07-23-17 | Marlins v. Reds -108 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (1:10 ET): This finale, of a series that has drawn little interest, offers some tremendous value on the home team who is hoping to avoid getting swept. Overall, it's been eight losses in the last nine games for the Reds, who have fallen deep into the basement in the NL Central. Of course, this was to be expected. Coming into 2017, they were projected as perhaps the worst team in baseball w/ the possible exception of San Diego. Now that we've established "what this team is," allow me to explain why there's value on them today. It has more to do w/ fading Miami really. The Marlins have only ONE 3-game win streak over the last month and that came right before the Break when they swept the Giants. I do not envision the same thing taking place here, not w/ the horrible Tom Koehler on the mound. Koehler comes in w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 11 starts this year. Not good. The team did win his last time out, 6-5 over the Phillies, but did so in extra innings after Koehler put them in an early four-run hole. Before that, the Marlins had lost each of his previous five starts. He was actually sent down to the minors at point and when he returned, produced a 10.80 ERA in his first four starts. Miami had not been playing well itself since returning from the Break, dropping five of six and those were all home games. Another big issue w/ Koehler is that he rarely goes deep into games. He's never made it past six innings and only twice in those 11 starts has he gotten that far. He's also never pitched in this ballpark before. Yes, Cincinnati is experiencing a truly awful homestand as they are not only 1-8, but have been outscored 69-25. They've allowed 22 HR's, which is a big problem, but keep in mind that they also faced both Washington and Arizona, two of the National League's top offensive teams. Sal Romano (not to be confused w/ the Mad Men character of the same name!) is charged w/ ending this homestand on some sort of positive note and despite his numbers being somewhat similar to Koehler's, I feel he has the more potential of the two starters here. This is only his fourth career big-league start and in addition to having to face Arizona his last time out, he also had to pitch at Coors Field. This will - easily - be his most favorable matchup to date as Miami is 21st in runs scored. The thing to keep in mind about this homestand is that the Reds previously had a winning record here! 10* Cincinnati | |||||||
07-22-17 | White Sox v. Royals -174 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (7:15 ET): Losers of seven straight, the White Sox are in a terrible way right now and figure to continue sinking further and further in the basement of the AL Central. The team's somewhat surprising start earlier this year was unsustainable as they were getting far better pitching than expected in the wake of sending Chris Sale to Boston. (They've since dealt Jose Quintana to the Cubs). Now they're giving up an average of over 5.0 rpg and that number should continue to rise w/ embattled starter Mike Pelfrey on the bump this evening. Last night's loss was of the crushing variety as the Sox blew a 5-1 lead and lost in extra innings. The Royals, who were in anearly season hole, have dug themselves out somewhat and won three in a row. They should continue progressing towards a possible sweep tonight. It looks like a pretty substantial pitching mismatch here w/ Jason Vargas opposing Pelfrey. Vargas has struggled in his two July starts thus far, but that being said, it's been a strong overall year for the southpaw. He comes in w/ a 12-4 record in 18 starts (13-5 TSR), 3.05 ERA and 1.220 WHIP. Predictably, he's been stronger here at Kauffman Stadium. Let's not forget that he was an All-Star and came into July w/ a 2.22 ERA. He's off his shortest outing of the year, which is never fun, but often times leads to a bounce back the next time out. (We saw this w/ Trevor Bauer of Cleveland last night). Earlier this year, Vargas threw six solid innings against the White Sox here at home, giving up just one run on five hits. Meanwhile, at no juncture of the season could one reasonably conclude Pelfrey was having an effective year. His main issue is that he rarely goes deep into games. He has yet to make it past the six inning mark in any start this year and only twice has he gone longer than 5 1/3 IP. That puts a huge burden on a White Sox bullpen that simply isn't very good to begin with and let's not forget they also had a heavy workload last night. During this seven-game losing streak of theirs, Chicago is being outscored by 3.4 rpg. They've been shut out twice and held to three runs or fewer five times. 8* Kansas City | |||||||
07-21-17 | Padres v. Giants -154 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -154 | 23 h 8 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): I have to admit; San Diego stunned me last night when they beat Madison Bumgarner (now 0-6 TSR in '17!) for the second time in less than a week. But for the second consecutive day, we also have a pitching matchup where one starter has "immediate" revenge for a loss in the prior start. Last Sunday, the Padres (w/ Trevor Cahill starting) beat Jeff Samardzija and the Giants, 7-1, in what was their last win prior to yday. Cahill and Samardzija face off again Friday and I believe it will be the latter emerging victorious this time. Not only because of the revenge angle (hard to beat same opposing starter twice in a row!), but also due to the fact that the Padres are just not good. Their MLB worst run differential (-137) includes them being outcored - on average - by 1.9 rpg on the road. Samardzija is deserving of far better than a 4-11 record in his 19 starts this season (7-12 TSR). Sure, he did not pitch well Sunday at Petco Park. But, at least in the control department, he's had an outstanding year. Since May 1st, he's issued only FOUR walks against 100 strikeouts. That's an otherworldy ratio that should be leading to far better results. But it's just been "that kind of year" for the former Notre Dame wideout and the team as a whole. But, Sunday aside, Samardzija has pitched well in the past vs. SD, turning in a 3.68 ERA against them w/ a 7-3 record. Also, he ranks sixth in the National League in both innings pitched and strikeouts while ranking ninth in WHIP. He's gone at least six innings in 16 of his 19 starts. It's important to note that he's not lost three decisions in a row since opening the year 0-4. San Diego, in my opinion, is the worst team in baseball. They may have a better record than the Giants, but they have an inferior run differential and that is usually a far better predictor of future results. Offensively, this has been another inept season for them as they rank dead last in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. Hats off to Trevor Cahill for the way he pitched against the Giants on Sunday, but his home vs. road splits have been quite dramatic to say the least. While he's 4-0 at Petco Park this year w/ a 0.72 ERA and 0.88 WHIP, when taking his act on the road, the numbers are grim (5.01 ERA and 1.515 WHIP) and he's yet to win in six tries (0-3). This is a far better price than yday against what remains a terrible road team. 8* San Francisco | |||||||
07-21-17 | Astros v. Orioles +130 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 58 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (7:05 ET): The Orioles surprised me yday by beating Cole Hamels, thereby finishing off a four-game sweep of the Rangers. Despite a run differential (-71) that does not match the record (46-49), the O's clearly are a better team here at Camden Yards where they're now 29-19 for the year. That's actually a better win percentage than the team they'll host this weekend, that being Houston, who has the best overall record in the American League. Yes, the Astros have been unreal on the road and are coming off an off day. But they also are now w/o Carlos Correa for six weeks, a very significant loss considering they are already w/o their best starter (Dallas Keuchel) and best reliever (Will Harris). They've got a big enough lead in the AL West where the injuries won't cost them, but maintaining the current .663 win percentage should prove difficult. These teams have met only one time all year and that was in Houston. Given how badly Baltimore struggles on the road, you probably shouldn't be shocked to learn that they were swept in that three-game series. But, at the time, the Astros were in the midst of playing their best baseball of the season as they'd go on to win 11 straight. Since that 11-game win streak ended, they're actually "only" 21-16. They just dropped two of three to Seattle, at home, and have not won on consecutive days since the All-Star Break. I highly doubt that starter Michael Fiers will be able to match his previous outing, where he struck out 11 in seven innings against Minnesota as he has a 4.79 ERA and 1.447 WHIP on the road (last start was at home). He did not pitch in the previous series w/ Baltimore, who instead had to face both Keuchel and Lance McCullers, Jr. Ubaldo Jimenez, admittedly, has not pitched well of late for Baltimore. The former Cy Young winner got rocked by the Cubs last week, giving up six runs and 11 hits in 3 2/3 IP. It was his third straight bad outing, but the offense also didn't support him at all (shutout). Jimenez has pitched well in the past vs. Houston, turning in a 2.87 ERA in 13 career appearances. I believe that this is a great price on an Orioles' team that has won four straight and is much better at home. The Correa injury should take its toll on the vaunted Astros. 10* Baltimore | |||||||
07-21-17 | Cardinals +138 v. Cubs | Top | 11-4 | Win | 138 | 15 h 13 m | Show |
9* St. Louis (2:20 ET): Despite the perception, the difference between the Cubs and Cards is quite minimal, if not completely non-existent. Granted, this weekend series takes place in Wrigley and the home team has won six in a row overall. Plus, they swept St. Louis in their previous visit to the "Friendly Confines" last month. But all of those factors have created a TON of value on the road dog here. The two offenses have virtually been identical this year w/ the Redbirds actually placing 12 spots higher in team batting average compared to their division rival. Then there's the pitching side of the ledger, where - to me - the Cards have a pretty commanding edge. That includes Friday afternoon where Carlos Martinez faces Jake Arrieta. The former has better numbers despite an inferior won-loss record. I'll gladly back St. Louis at "plus money" here. The narrative entering this series will be "the Cubs are back" following a 6-0 road trip that saw them sweep Baltimore and Atlanta. But was that performance really all that impressive? Sure, the Orioles turned around and swept Texas in their next series, but their -71 run differential remains one of the worst in the American League. Atlanta could be the weakest second place team in recent memory. The Cubs have essentially lost money in all settings here in 2017 as they're clearly overvalued after last year's World Series Championship. Only four teams (Toronto, Philly, Cleveland, SF) have been less profitable and day games have been particularly costly to Cubs backers as they're down 12.1 units! These teams are separated by 3.5 games yet the respective YTD run differentials are quite similar. Prior to losing the previous two days, St. Louis had taken the first two games against the Mets. Let's also not be fooled by the recent showings of the two starting pitchers today. Jake Arrieta might have a 1.86 ERA and 0.931 WHIP his L3 starts, but for the year he has a 4.17 ERA and 1.287 WHIP. Only 9 of his 19 starts have been quality. Yes, he's had the Cards' number here at Wrigley, but his overall skill set seems to have regressed. Meanwhile, Carlos Martinez may have hit a bit of a rough patch for the Redbirds (0-5 TSR L5 starts), but for the year he still sports a 3.36 ERA and 1.143 WHIP, better numbers than Arrieta. He also has a 2-0 TSR vs. the Cubs this season, having allowed just three runs on 11 hits in 14 innings of work. His last time out, Martinez went seven innings and allowed just two runs on five hits against Pittsburgh. Here, there's a good chance he might not have to face Kris Bryant, which would obviously make his job a lot easier. 9* St. Louis | |||||||
07-20-17 | Padres v. Giants -198 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -198 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
6* San Francisco (10:15 ET): Don't look now, but the Giants have won back to back games (first time since a six-game win streak was snapped on 7.2). Both times saw them rally at Cleveland's expense, first winning a 10-inning affair on Tuesday, then scoring three times in the bottom of the eighth to win 5-4 last night. Meanwhile, their weekend visitors just got swept in embarrassing fashion at Colorado. I played against the Padres yesterday and they were humbled, 18-4, dropping their already MLB-worst run differential to an unsightly -140. That's 34 runs worse than the Giants, who have the 2nd worst run differential in all of baseball. But the key to this play is not just how bad San Diego is, but also San Francisco, specifically starter Madison Bumgarner having revenge. Look for the G-Men to win again and send the slumping Padres to another defeat. Bumgarner being winless is emblematic of this lost season for the Giants. Of course, that record comes with a rather "giant" (pun intended!) caveat, that being an injury that kept him out for almost three months. One could make the case that when "Mad-Bum" fell off the dirtbike in April, the Giants' season went with him. It has been a stunning fall from grace for a club that has won three World Series since 2010, but as stated above, they at least come into this series w/ some positive momentum (hate that word!). Saturday saw Bumgarner make his return against these Padres and while he lost (TSR now 0-5 in '17), there were signs of positive things to come, such as him striking out the side in the first inning. Unfortunately, he gave up two homers and that ended up being the difference in a 5-3 defeat. Bumgarner will face the same pitcher he squared off against Saturday, that being Jhoulys Chacin. As we know, it's exceedingly rare to have the same pitchers face off in consecutive starts and one to win both times. Chacin has actually pitched well for the Padres of late, but he's generally been horrible on the road this year w/ an 8.16 ERA and 1.814 WHIP. The fact he has a 4-5 TSR in his nine road starts seems quite fortunate. Those concerned w/ this price range ought not to be. Yes, this will only be the second time all year that the Giants find themselves favored in the -175 to -250 price range. But, at home, they are 24-7 in that range the L3 seasons. San Diego, on the other hand, is 13-43 the L3 seasons as a ML road dog of +175 to +250. As I said when I played against them each of the L2 days, the Padres have been a terrible road team overall this year, now being outscored by an average of 1.7 rpg. 6* San Francisco | |||||||
07-20-17 | Rangers +103 v. Orioles | Top | 7-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* Texas (7:10 ET): Whenever I've played either on OR against the Rangers this season, I make it a point to talk about how this has been one of the hardest teams to evaluate - in all of baseball - the last two years. The 2016 club that won 95 games (most in the American League) was nowhere near as good as its record as they only outscored their opponents by a measly eight runs over the course of the year and were greatly aided by a historical 36-11 record in one-run games! This year, somewhat predictably, they've been just the opposite. Despite entering today at just 45-49, one could make a pretty clear-cut argument that they're much better than that record considering they've outscored their opponents by 10 runs (more than last year!). The big difference between this season and last is they're now 7-15 in one-run games, the WORST such record in baseball! After winning their first two games after the All-Star Break, the Rangers have now dropped four straight, the last three coming here in Baltimore. Ironically, the Orioles are a team that has to be considered far WORSE than its 45-49 record (same as Rangers!) as they've been outscored by 73 runs this season. Coming into this series, they actually owned the worst run diff in the A.L. But with Cole Hamels on the mound Thursday, I see the Rangers avoiding the sweep. It was a shaky first start back for Hamels on 6.26 vs. Cleveland, but since then he's been "lights out" w/ a 0.82 ERA and 0.500 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he tossed 7 2/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball. He comes into today having not allowed a run in 21 consecutive innings, the longest such active streak in MLB. In terms of the starting pitching matchup here, it looks like a no contest as Baltimore will send the struggling Wade Miley to the bump. His last three starts have resulted in an 11.24 ERA and 2.748 WHIP. Twice in that stretch he's been tagged for seven runs, including his last time out, when I played against him vs. the Cubs. He's not gone a full six innings since June 1st, a span of eight starts. His ERA over those eight starts is a heinous 10.19. For the season, he has a WHIP of 1.79, one of the worst among all qualified AL starters. Texas has given him trouble throughout his career as in seven starts against them, his ERA is 5.75. The Rangers are the better team here, so what's happened in the series so far seems like an aberration to me. I look for their offense to wake up against Miley tonight. 10* Texas | |||||||
07-19-17 | Cardinals v. Mets -144 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The Mets have dropped the first two games of this four-game set, 6-3 and 5-0, but fortunately they have the definition of a "stopper" on the hill tonight, that being Jacob deGrom. The Mets are 6-0 in deGroms' last six starts w/ the last three seeing him turn in a 2.45 ERA and fantastic 0.773 WHIP. Now it's been the Cardinals' staff routinely turning in sharp efforts of late, holding the competition to just 1.9 runs and a .217 batting average the L7 games. Yesterday was their third shutout in the last six games alone. But the problem is that off the previous two shutouts, they've lost the next time out, dropping them to 2-6 this season off a shutout win. Make it 2-7 after this game as I don't like their starter Leake, who has a 1.80 WHIP his L3 starts. It's pretty interesting to see the two starters w/ comparable ERA's over their last three starts (2.45 for deGrom, 3.24 for Leake). But deGrom's WHIP is over a full point lower, so what's going on? Not surprisingly, control issues have hurt Leake, his last start in particular. He issued five walks in a 5-2 loss at Pittsburgh Friday. Meanwhile, deGrom has issued just five walks total in his L5 starts! His KW ratio is 28-2 his L3 starts alone. He did allow FOUR home runs when he faced the Cards right before the All-Star Break, atypical to say the least, but all were solo shots and the Mets still won that game. It should also be pointed out that Leake allowed three home runs himself two starts ago as well. Last time out, deGrom was masterful in allowing just two runs (one earned) in eight innings vs. Colorado (only four hits). This is a career-best win streak that deGrom is on and I really don't see an end in sight. He has a 1.53 ERA during the course of the current six-game streak, which began back on 6.12. Other than allowing the four solo shots to St. Louis on 7.7, he's allowed just 4 other runs - total during this stretch. He's gone at least seven innings in all six starts, four times going at least eight. Something to keep in mind is that in his last nine starts, Leake has an ERA of 4.56. The Mets really beat themselves yday by committing three errors. I don't see that happening again. St. Louis is 2-7 this season as a ML underdog of +125 to +175 on the road. 10* NY Mets | |||||||
07-19-17 | Padres v. Rockies -168 | Top | 4-18 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
8* Colorado (3:10 ET): Rockies' fans were beginning to worry as their team (which had played so well for much of the 1st half) dropped 14 of 19 games heading into Sunday. But, they're now "sleeping a bit easier" after three consecutive wins, two of those coming against today's opponent, lowly San Diego. As I said in yday's analysis, this series was tailor-made for a Colorado bounce back as a case can be made that the Padres are the worst team in the league (-126 run differential). They also don't score much on the road (3.6 rpg), ranking last in that department. Making matters more frustrating for San Diego is that they actually HAVE scored in this series (13 runs in two games), yet lost both games. I see Colorado finishing off the sweep Weds afternoon. Monday saw the Rockies jump out to a 7-2 lead early and hold on for a 9-6 win. Yesterday saw both teams score three times in the first inning, but it was the home team taking control from there. Today sees Clayton Richard attempting to break the trend and become the only Padres starter in the series not to get jumped on early. On the surface, his league-leading ground ball rate would seem to serve him well here. But, the bottom line is Richard has a 7.78 ERA in seven career starts here at Coors Field. It also won't help his cause that he's a low strikeout pitcher. He comes in sporting a 6.75 ERA and 2.00 WHIP his L3 starts overall as well (4.65 ERA L10 starts). Considering the way the Rockies have swung the bats the L3 days (31 runs scored!), this could end up being a pretty bad start for Richard. I also think it would be a mistake to assume he can get the same kind of run support the previous two Padres starters received (ended up being irrelevant) as well. For Colorado, Jon Gray will be looking to bounce back from an awful outing in which he allowed eight runs in two innings. Fortunately, we can lean on the fact that prior to that rough go of it (was on the road), he had allowed 2 ER or less in four consecutive starts. He's also fared quite well in the past against San Diego, including recording a franchise-high 16 K's in a start last September. He's yet to face them in 2017, but has a 2.30 ERA in seven career starts against them. That includes a somewhat remarkable 0.86 ERA here at Coors Field (three starts). He should love facing this San Diego lineup which ranks last in runs scored, team batting average and OBP. 8* Colorado | |||||||
07-18-17 | Indians -130 v. Giants | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (10:15 ET): I feel that the Indians are a lot better than their record indicates as they are #1 in the American League in runs allowed, something that should serve them well down the home stretch. Though the division lead is only 1.5 games currently, I think most (myself included) are anticipating the Tribe winning the AL Central for a second straight year. After all, they have a run differential of +65 while the second place Twins are actually -63. So the fact that the race is so tight currently makes little to no sense to this handicapper. Part of the Indians' problem has been unusual struggles at home (21-24) and against the National League (4-11). They'll have to wait for another time to rectify the former, but last night saw them take a step in the right direction w/ the latter, beating up on the sorry Giants, 5-3. I have them winning again tonight. I feel that the oddsmakers have been VERY slow to react as to just how bad the Giants are this season. That feeling is reinforced by the fact that no team has lost more at the betting window (-27.4 units). This is a bad matchup for them as well considering Cleveland is #1 in the A.L. in runs allowed and now gets to face one of the weakest lineups in all of baseball (28th in runs scored) which has to send the pitcher up to bat as well. Yes, the loss of the DH affects Cleveland too, but the Giants only average 3.5 runs per game at home as their roster is no longer built to win in today's home run heavy game. They've hit only 77 balls out of the park this season, by far the fewest in all of baseball. Going back before the All-Star Break, the team has lost seven of eight and that includes two to the sorry Padres over the weekend. Indians' starter Mike Clevinger should have a field day here against a lineup that is 28th in OBP and last (30th) in slugging. Even the embattled Josh Tomlin was able to turn in a quality start at the Giants' expense last night. Clevinger comes in w/ a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP his L3 starts and will be working on 10 days rest. Last we saw him, he was throwing six scoreless innings of three-hit ball against the Tigers. He's allowed 2 ER or less in five straight starts. It's a clear edge here for Clevinger against Ty Blach, who has a 6.46 ERA and 1.892 WHIP his L3 starts for the Giants. The last time Blach faced an American League lineup here at home, he gave up seven runs. The team has lost 14 of 18 here at home while Cleveland has been one of baseball's better road teams w/ a 27-19 record away from home. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
07-18-17 | Padres v. Rockies -141 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:40 ET): Needless to say, the Rockies have to be thrilled to be back at Coors Field, facing the lowly Padres no less! It was a somewhat ugly end to the first half of the season for a team that spent a good deal of time in first place in the NL West. In fact, after losing their first two games after the All-Star Break, their record was just 5-14 over a 19-game stretch. But Sunday's 13-4 over the Mets was just what "the doctor ordered" coming into this homestand, which will take them through the weekend. As alluded to earlier, San Diego is an ideal opponent to allow them to get back on track. The Padres own the worst run differential in all of MLB (-124) and are the lowest scoring road team - by far - at just 3.5 runs per game. Not even the hitter friendly confines of this park can save them today, I'm afraid. Colorado, of course, has little difficulty scoring at home. Their 5.9 runs per game scoring average is tied for the best in all of baseball, which is not surprising at all. They're batting a collective .293 here, a far cry from the .226 clip San Diego bats at on the road. The Padres did score more than normal last night, but still, six runs was not enough and the game was basically out of reach after a five-run Rockies' third. I expect another big day at the plate here from Colorado as they face Dinelson Lamet, who is allowing lefties to hit .306 against him and has not pitched well on the road (8.00 ERA, 1.611 WHIP). Lamet has somehow avoided facing the Rockies to this point in '17 and tonight marks his first start since the Break. On July 6th, I played against him and he wound up giving up six runs in an 11-2 loss to Cleveland. The Rockies counter w/ Antonio Senzatela, who is making his first big league start in nearly a month. The team chose to rest him, first by using him out of the bullpen, then sending him down to Triple-A. Though his last several starts certainly weren't great, this was merely an attempt to limit the pitcher's inning, not a move based on performance. Senzatela's 10-5 team start record this year includes a 2-0 mark vs. SD, one win coming at home and the other on the road. He went seven innings and allowed just two runs on five hits in the one here at Coors. The Padres are just a dreadful road team overall, getting outscored by 1.7 rpg. Again, I feel this should be a "bounce back" type week for the Rockies and a sweep of this series would not surprise me in the least. 8* Colorado | |||||||
07-17-17 | Blue Jays +106 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 106 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:10 ET): The last time these two AL East rivals met (June 30th - July 2nd), the Red Sox absolutely dominated, outscoring the Jays 29-6 en rout to an easy three-game sweep at Rogers Centre. But tonight marks an excellent shot at revenge for Toronto as Boston is in a HORRIBLE spot, not only coming off the Sunday Night Game, but a day-night doubleheader as well! That's after a "controversial" (played game under protest) 16-inning loss on Saturday. The Red Sox are using this opportunity to reinsert Eduardo Rodriguez back into the starting rotation after he spent virtually all of June on the disabled list. But Rodriguez won't nearly be enough; in fact, Toronto has the better pitcher going in this one, that being Marcus Stroman. I like what I've seen from Stroman of late as he has a 1.37 ERA and 1.118 WHIP his last three starts (no home runs allowed either). In his final start before the All-Star Break, he held high-powered Houston (highest scoring road team in MLB) to only one run and six hits. Perhaps the most impressive aspect of that win is how much the market respected him w/ the money line closing at -140. For whatever reason, he's not getting the same kind of respect here and that means there is a TON of value. Toronto does come in off B2B losses, but yday's was an extra-inning affair that easily could have gone either way. Stroman will be facing a Boston lineup that was held w/o a run for 22 innings at one point by Yankees pitching. Red Sox hitters were 3 for 38 w/ RISP in the weekend series. Rodriguez' last start came on June 1st and he gave up four home runs and seven runs overall. I find that starters often struggle their first time back on the mound after a long stint on the DL. It was a knee injury that kept him out, which can be tricky to bounce back from. It certainly doesn't help that Rodriguez has a 6.35 lifetime ERA against the Blue Jays either. Again, don't look for him to get a ton of support either as the Red Sox offense has been in serious decline this season, especially of late as they're batting a collective .210 (2.9 rpg scored) the L7 games. I really can't stress enough how bad of a spot this is for Boston and w/ Toronto having revenge, it becomes an even bigger play for yours truly. 10* Toronto | |||||||
07-17-17 | Cardinals v. Mets -113 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (7:10 ET): The fact that the Cardinals suffered a brutal loss on Sunday is something I'm "all too aware of" as I backed them in the series finale in Pittsburgh. Entering the bottom of the ninth w/ a 3-2 lead, they ended up as 4-3 losers, making it twice in that three-game set that they ended up losing in the game's final at-bat. You may be asking yourself "why so quick to abandon ship?" as the Cards did outhit the Pirates yday 13-8 and continue to maintain a positive run differential for the season despite a losing record. Well, this play has everything to do w/ the pitching matchup as Adam Wainwright and Zach Wheeler face off for a second time in 10 days. Wainwright & the Cards emerged victorious at Busch Stadium two Saturdays ago, but as I'm about to get into Wainwright's recent results are generally misleading. Look for Wheeler & the Mets to get their revenge. Wainwright has won 8 of his last 11 starts, including three straight. But pay little mind to that fact as he comes into Monday still sporting a 5.20 ERA and 1.495 WHIP for the season. He did pitch well against the Mets his last time out, conceding only one run on five hits in 6 2/3 innings of work. However, he's been prone to bad starts throughout the year, most of them coming on the road where his ERA and WHIP are 8.36 and 1.832 respectively. Therefore, a 4-4 team start record away from Busch Stadium this year has to be considered somewhat fortuitous. In 12 career appearances vs. the Mets, 10 of them starts, Wainwright has 4.65 ERA. So, generally speaking, starts like the last one are an aberration against this particular opponent. It should be pointed out that Wheeler also pitched well last Saturday, giving up just two runs in six innings. He'd been struggling some before that, but he's allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his last 10 starts. It's uncommon for one pitcher to beat another two starts in a row, so that's a major reason why I'm backing Wheeler in this instance. While the Mets were embarrassed yday at home (lost 13-4 to the Rockies), they still won the weekend series against a foe superior to St. Louis and did so by averaging 9.0 runs per game. Overall, the Mets are the better offensive club here as they rank 5th in slugging (.448). St. Louis has a losing road record thanks to giving up 5.0 rpg. 10* NY Mets | |||||||
07-16-17 | New York Yankees - Game #2 v. Boston Red Sox - Game #2 -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Boston (8:05 ET): Just when you thought the Red Sox might start to pull away from the Yankees, they go out and lose to them Saturday in a wild affair that wasn't decided until the 16th inning. Boston played the game under protest for a play that occurred in the 11th inning, but the bottom line is they should have wrapped things up much earlier as New York didn't score until the top of the ninth. (Chris Sale was his usual masterful self). The two teams are probably glad that Saturday's game was played in the afternoon because they're playing a day-night doubleheader on Sunday, which puts a major impetus on the starters for today. With David Price on the hill for Game 2 (ESPN Sun Night Baseball), I'll back the Red Sox here and honestly, I'd feel even stronger if they were to lose the first game. Regardless of what happens in Game 1 though, I'm backing Boston in the nightcap. The Yankees have been carried by their offense this year, which led by Aaron Judge is now 3rd in MLB in runs scored. That's a huge jump after ranking 22nd last year and Judge deserves a lion's share of the credit. But it's the other side of the ledger where I'm more concerned. Michael Pineda is now done for the year (Tommy John surgery), leaving a major hole in the starting rotation. The bullpen is in serious decline, whether you're talking Aroldis Chapman or Dellin Betances. In the case of Betances, his heavy workload over the L2 seasons can probably be blamed. Furthermore, the Yanks should probably feel fortunate that they were #4 in runs allowed over the first half among AL clubs. The defense, which often plays a HUGE factor in a team's number of runs allowed, is simply not very good. I don't have a ton of confidence here in starter Masahiro Tanaka, who has been routinely hammered on the road this year (6.24 ERA, 1.632 WHIP). Now the Yankees have certainly been one of Price's toughest opponents through the years. But w/ the lefty having allowed 3 ER or less in eight of his nine starts this year, I'll still gladly back him at this price, especially at Fenway Park. Boston is 26-15 in home games this season. He has not allowed a home run in four starts. It certainly is odd to see the Red Sox offense struggle the way it has over the previous seven games (2.9 rpg w/ .195 BA). I look for them to knock around Tanaka tonight the same way they did last month when they scored five time off him in five innings. 10* Boston | |||||||
07-16-17 | Cardinals -130 v. Pirates | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (1:35 ET): The current narrative in the NL Central is that the Cubs will eventually get their act together and wrest away first place from Milwaukee. But don't sleep on the Cardinals, who are just a game back of the reigning World Series Champs and have the superior YTD run differential as well. After dropping Friday's opener, the Redbirds shut Pittsburgh out yday, 4-0. Starter Lance Lynn was the hero, not only for tossing 6 1/3 scoreless innings, but also due to supplying all the run support that was necessary w/ a two-run double. Today, the Cards have their most accomplished starter going, that being Carlos Martinez, who the Pirates have somehow gotten to avoid in seven prior head to head meetings w/ their division rival. I'll back Martinez here, noting that the Cards have not lost any of their previous four series. Martinez hasn't been at his best lately, losing his last three starts. But pay no mind to that or the fact he's just 6-8 in his team-leading 18 starts. Because Martinez ranks among the NL leaders in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and innings pitched. Opponents are batting just .213 against him for the year, so the won-loss record definitely "deserves" to be a bit better. He's turned in four starts w/ 10+ K's, including his last one on the road. The Pirates hardly present a formidable challenge at the plate as they rank 24th in runs scored, 23rd in team batting average and 27th in slugging. Of course, they were shutout yday. At home, the Bucs are averaging only 3.7 runs per game. Pirates starter Trevor Williams has only faced the Cardinals as a reliever previous to today. All three appearances came last year and the results were not great as his ERA was 6.23. Today will be his 13th start overall and last time out happened to be his shortest stint to date. He needed 80 pitches just to record 11 outs and gave up three runs in the process. The team has lost each of the last five times he's taken the mound. To me, the Cards are a team to watch here in the second half while the Pirates likely fade into obscurity as they're a team that has been below .500 the entire season. 10* St. Louis | |||||||
07-15-17 | Rangers v. Royals -125 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (7:15 ET): The Royals let me down last night as the blew a 3-0 lead and lost 5-3 to the Rangers. They are now 0-5 head to head w/ Texas in 2017, having also been swept down in Arlington back in late April. Those who have been following my picks for an extended period of time know that I "swear by" this angle, which says to back any team playing w/ revenge for a prior sweep of three games or more. Obviously, it's still in play tonight. The Royals outhit the Rangers last night, 8-7, not to mention starter Jason Hammel took a no-hitter into the sixth! It was an unfortunate loss, but one the Royals should be able to bounce back from as the Rangers have not enjoyed anywhere near the kind of good fortune they did last year. I'm on the home team again. Danny Duffy will be making his 14th start of the year for KC tonight. Four of the previous 13 (including the last one) have been bad (allowed 5+ ER), but in the other nine he's allowed 2 ER or less. In the previous series w/ the Rangers, he took what is the definition of a "hard-luck loss" as despite throwing 7 1/3 scoreless innings of four-hit ball, the Royals lost 1-0. Last time out, he allowed three home runs in a loss to the Dodgers, but one could argue that was a good spot to "waste" as he was a +255 ML underdog against Clayton Kershaw. I fully expect Duffy to bounce back here as he has a 2.75 ERA and 1.194 WHIP at Kauffman Stadium. Due to a stint on the DL, this will be his first time pitching here since May 18th. Also, lost in the three home runs allowed last time out was the fact he finished the start w/ a 9-0 KW rate. This will be a battle of lefties as the Rangers send Cole Hamels to the bump. He's working on a 13 1/3 scoreless inning streak, but don't be surprised at all to see him regress in this start. He has a 5.09 ERA on the road this year. Note that the Rangers' offense has made it easy for him by scoring a total of 43 runs in his last four starts! While I expect this game to be higher scoring than anticipated (see Over play), I don;t envision Hamels getting anywhere near that kind of support. Also, as mentioned yday, the Rangers' bullpen has largely been a disaster on the road this year w/ a 6.17 ERA and 1.730 WHIP. Revenge wll be sweet for the home team (who "should" have won yday, if not for some cluster luck by the Rangers) in this one. 10* Kansas City | |||||||
07-15-17 | Cubs -135 v. Orioles | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): While many teams sport a worse record, there's no denying the Cubs belong on the short list for "biggest disappointments" in the first half of this MLB season. Last year, the team essentially dominated from "start to finish" last year en route to the franchise's first World Series win since 1908. Despite bringing back the vast majority of key contributors, 2017 has been more of a struggle. They went into the Break at a game below .500 and were it not for their terrible division, they might be in real trouble. Fortunately, there's still a lot of baseball to play though and that includes this three-game set in Baltimore where the Orioles are likely set for a major decline. The Cubs took the 1st game, 9-8 on Friday (after blowing an 8-0 lead!), and I feel they are poised for another win here tonight. Back on May 9th, the Orioles were a season-best 12 games above .500 at 22-10 thanks to a six-game win streak. The decline has been both severe and fast. They are just 20-37 since and, of late, things have gotten quite ugly (11-21 L32 games). A loss like yday's, where they rallied back from an eight-run deficit (tied game in bottom of the eighth) only to still lose, can certainly be crushing. Of course, one could make the case that a loss such as Friday's was long overdue considering the team's record is somewhat propped up by a very fortunate 9-2 record in extra inning games (a MLB best!). Their -79 run differential (2nd worst in AL) and says their record should actually be a lot worse than it is. Based on the current trajectory, do not be surprised to see the O's end up in the AL East basement sooner rather than later. Emblematic of the Cubs' mediocre start is Jake Arrieta's 9-9 team start record. The former Cy Young winner actually began his career w/ Baltimore before enjoying a career renaissance w/ his current club. His numbers aren't all too impressive, but note that he rarely turns in B2B substandard outings and last time out he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 IP. He'll be opposed by a pitcher whose struggling far more than he, that being Wade Miley, who over his L3 starts has produced an awful 8.02 ERA and 2.431 WHIP. His season-long 1.748 WHIP is certainly cause for concern as he gets to face a Cubs lineup that hit five home runs yday and benefits from the use of the DH in this series. Pay little mind to the fact Baltimore is 25-16 in Camden Yards this season as they've actually been outscored here! Also, the Cubs are 14-6 this seasons vs. LH starters. 10* Chi Cubs | |||||||
07-14-17 | Rangers v. Royals -118 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 22 h 55 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (8:15 ET): For the past several seasons, the Royals and Rangers have been two of the American League's best teams. Not this year, however. KC dug themselves a massive hole w/ an awful start to the season, but to their credit, they've climbed out of it somewhat. They went into the Break a game above .500, although they were swept in their last series (Dodgers) and have been outscored by 25 runs over the course of the season. Texas' first half can be summarized by one important word - regression. Last year's team rode an unsustainable blueprint en route to 95 wins (most in AL) and a divsion title. They outscored opponents by only EIGHT runs the entire season, clearly benefiting from a historic 36-11 record in one-run games. This year's run differential is actually superior (+29), but they happen to be two games BELOW .500. Now let's look at the actual matchup we have on Friday. The Rangers swept a four-game set from the Royals, in Arlington, back in late April. That was when KC wasn't playing well at all (ended April on a nine-game losing streak). But since May 1st, they're a solid 37-27. Going back to last season, the Rangers are a somewhat stunning 10-1 head to head w/ the Royals. That, coupled with the discussion above, makes me think some serious regression is about to take hold this weekend. Texas is not a particularly good road team this season (just 18-25) and is coming off just its second shutout loss of the season (Sunday vs. Angels). Back when they swept the Royals in April, Kansas City's offense was not performing well at all. They scored just five runs in those four games. But the offense has since "upped its game" a bit and now ranks 21st in team batting average as well as 22nd in slugging. That's actually pretty good when you consider they were 30th in both categories at one point. The Royals' should have a chance at continuing their offensive resurgence in this game as they face Martin Perez, who has a 4.60 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in 16 starts. Perez has allowed at least four runs in three consecutive starts (all at home), although two of those actually resulted in Rangers' wins and he received ample run support. Going back further, he's allowed 4+ runs in five of his last six starts. KC counters w/ Jason Hammel, who had a poor 1st half as well (4-13 TSR), but he's allowed 3 ER or less in six of his last seven starts and seems "due" (for a win) to me. As a sizable underdog (+187), he pitched well his last time out (in Dodger Stadium), turning in a quality start. If this one were to come down to the respective bullpens, that's a big edge for the Royals as Rangers' relievers have a collective 6.26 ERA and 1.750 WHIP away from home this year. 10* Kansas City | |||||||
07-09-17 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -158 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -158 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
8* Arizona (4:10 ET): By any objective measure, the first half of the season has been a rousing success for the D'backs. They currently own the top Wild Card spot in the National League (trail the insanely hot Dodgers by 6.5 gms in the West) and are one of just four clubs to have outscored their opponents by 100+ runs over the course of the year. They are 53-35 coming into Sunday, which is well above projections after they lost 93 games a year ago. However, they did lose last night to Cincinnati, 7-0. That embarrassment has me thinking "revenge" for this final game before the All-Star Break. Cincinnati, which has actually performed somewhat better than expected (despite being 38-49), is not a good team and Homer Bailey being on the mound today seems to put them at a severe disadvantage. In three starts so far, Bailey has a 12.65 ERA and 2.343 WHIP. Not good. Now, he is coming off his best start to date, one that saw him allow only one run (but on eight hits) in Colorado. But that right there should tell you just how horrid the first two starts of the season were. He allowed 14 runs in 4 2/3 innings and his strikeout numbers (7 TOTAL!) are anything but impressive so far. Last night marked just the 4th time all season that Arizona has been shut out and while they're 0-3 off the previous three occurrences, the fact remains this team can score here at Chase Field where they average a healthy 5.9 runs per game. That's the most rpg of any team in the National League and trails only the Yankees overall. The offense is a major reason why the D'backs are 33-14 at home this year. Cincy is just 19-34 its L53 games and doesn't win B2B games very often. In fact, that's happened just twice over the last month. So recent history is not on the Reds side here nor is the venue as they face the best home team in MLB and are just 15-28 on the road themselves (-1.2 rpg). They're also only 5-14 vs. left-handed starters and face one here today in the form of Patrick Corbin, who is "due" a win after some tough results each of his last three outings. Despite allowing 3 ER or less in all three, Corbin has seen the team lose every time. Last time out, he had had the unfortunate experience of having to go opposite Clayton Kershaw, who took a no-hitter into the seventh inning. His two starts prior to that one saw Corbin allow just three runs in 12 2/3 IP. The D'backs are clearly the better team here, especially at home, and should win this one easily. 8* Arizona | |||||||
07-09-17 | White Sox v. Rockies -121 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
8* Colorado (3:10 ET): The Rockies have been one of the great stories of the 1st half as for a time they had the best record in all of baseball. But, recently, they have slipped. Most notably, they went 1-10 from 6.21 to 7.2, all but two of those games taking place on the divisional road. One would have thought that a return home, to face a pair of last place opponents, would signal an "uptick" prior to the All-Star Break. But instead, the Rockies have only managed a split of six games so far w/ the Reds and White Sox. Last night, they lost 5-4 after closer Greg Holland gave up a HR in the top of the ninth. Even when the Rockies were winning, run differential suggested that they were not in the Dodgers and D'backs class. But I feel they certainly should be able to handle the White Sox. Therefore, off a loss, they'll get my endorsement here. The White Sox are currently 10 games under .500, which is what was pretty much expected coming into the year, but they've been a bit more competitive than I would have thought. They've only been outscored by 22 runs as early in the year, their pitching staff was keeping them in games. But that's not really the case anymore as only five AL teams have allowed more runs this season and the team is just 7-12 its L19 games overall. You'd figure that the pitching would struggle here at Coors Field and sure enough they did give up 12 runs in a loss Friday. That came after giving up seven in B2B games to Oakland. Carlos Rodon starts the final game before the ASB and while he treated me well his last time out, note that was just his 2nd start of '17 and in the first (against the Yankees), he walked six batters. Kyle Freeland goes for Colorado and he's made the most of these Interleague opportunities thus far. He's gone 3-0 vs. AL foes this season w/ a 2.95 ERA. Two of those starts were in AL parks as well, meaning he had to deal w/ the DH. While Chicago's lineup should theoretically improve here in the thin air, it really hasn't the first two games (just 9 runs total) as they lose the DH in this series. Freeland has not pitched well in any of his L3 starts, but I'll call for the bounce back today as I feel he'll get the requisite run support. Gerrardo Parra has been hitting the cover off the ball since returning to the lineup and you can trace his absence to the team's struggles previously. This is the kind of game, that if Colorado is a true playoff contender, they should win easily. 8* Colorado | |||||||
07-09-17 | Brewers v. Yankees -148 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -148 | 4 h 16 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yankees were staring at yet another defeat Saturday (would have been their 18th in last 24 games!) before a three-run homer by Clint Frazier in the bottom of the ninth changed all that. Of course, "some" (myself included) might be willing to call that a bit of "comeuppance" considering the way the team wearing pinstripes blew Friday's opener (led 3-0, lost 9-4 after rain delay). Despite what has happened over the last month, the Yanks are still in great shape entering the All-Star Break as they are only 3.5 games back of rival Boston in the AL East and also have one of baseball's best run differentials (4th) at +100. Milwaukee has been a major surprise as they continue to lead the Cubs in the NL Central, but I don't think I'm alone in believing that won't last for long. Starting today for the Yanks will be Masahiro Tanaka. While he's been inconsistent for much of the year, Tanaka has most definitely been sharp of late. In fact, he's 2-0 (3-0 TSR) w/ a 1.29 ERA and 0.905 WHIP his L3 starts. He hasn't allowed a single home run during that stretch either. Having a 1.089 WHIP at home (eight starts) tells me that 4.25 ERA is certainly a bit misleading, and at least in the Bronx, he's due for better results. Over those L3 starts, he has beaten the likes of Yu Darvish, Carlos Rodon and Marcus Stroman, all top notch pitchers. Yes, I'm aware that during this 7-17 stretch the Yanks have not posted B2B wins even one time nor have they won a series. But I believe yday was a bit of a "game-changer" and today's game sets up well. Typically, the National League struggles in Interleague Play. The last season they posted a winning record against American League counterparts was 2003! It's another losing record so far here in 2017, but the Brew Crew are at least doing their part w/ an 8-4 mark in IL play. Still, they are underdogs for a reason and after being big dogs on the ML the L2 days, I find it curious that the Yanks are so inexpensive Sunday. Perhaps that's because Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee's best pitcher is on the hill, but he's not been that great on the road (4.62 ERA, 1.205 WHIP). Over his L6 starts, he's gotten to face a relatively weak slate of opponents that includes all sub-.500 foes. The Brewers may have a better record than the Yankees, but their YTD run differential (+43) isn't half as good. 8* NY Yankees | |||||||
07-08-17 | A's v. Mariners -147 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -147 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
8* Seattle (10:10 ET): Believe it or not, but the Mariners had actually lost eight in a row here at Safeco Field prior to last night's 7-2 win. While James Paxton and the bullpen held the A's to all of three hits Friday, the game was actually closer than the final score indicates as the M's didn't really have any breathing room until breaking loose for four runs in the bottom of the eighth, which effectively put the game out of reach. Still though, I expect them to likely win the next two days and head into the All-Star Break w/ some "momentum" (hate that word!) in what has been a very "up and down" 1st half. For my money, Oakland remains - clearly - the worst team in the American League. The A's had won three in a row before losing last night, but also had lost six straight prior to that brief win streak. Actually, speaking of "up and down," that's what it's been for them over the last month. Starting at 6.10, they've lost four straight, then won four straight, then lost four straight, then won four straight, then lost six straight, then won three straight and lost last night. That's an odd way to get to 11-15 over a 26-game stretch, but the bottom line remains this is a bad team, one that is a lousy 14-28 on the road this year while getting outscored by 1.4 rpg. They turn to a spot starter tonight, Chris Smith, who at 36 years of age will become the oldest A's pitcher in history to make his first big league start. At this point, I think it's fair to say he's NOT a prospect. He does have 64 relief appearances at the Major League level, but it says something that the team hasn't asked him to start until now. Note that prior to the eight-game home losing streak, Seattle was a very good 25-13 at Safeco Field. So, it definitely was a surprise to see them struggle like they did. But now that the streak is over, I look for them to play better in their home park. They average 5.1 rpg here. Starting tonight will be Andrew Moore, whose first two starts have produced a 0.733 WHIP. In 15 IP, he's allowed just 11 hits and perhaps more impressive is that he hasn't walked anybody. He has allowed 3 HR's, but other than that, he's been pretty dominant. One final thing to note is that Oakland's bullpen is pretty lousy on the road (5.92 ERA, 1.520 WHIP). 8* Seattle | |||||||
07-08-17 | Padres v. Phillies -143 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -143 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (4:05 ET): On this final weekend before the All-Star Break, we have a number of non-divisional foes in the National League meeting for the first time this season. One such matchup is here, yet I'm assuming "good seats are still available" for Padres-Phillies, a battle between arguably the two worst teams in all of baseball. San Diego has the better overall record (37-49 compared to 28-57) and won last night's series opener, 4-3. However, they also sport the vastly inferior run differential (-123 to -97) and I happen to view that particular metric as being a far more reliable predictor of future results than a team's won-loss record. Therefore, I'll offer up a rare endorsement of the Phillies Sat afternoon as they have what looks to be a big time edge on the mound as well. Last night saw the teams having to wait out a 94-minute rain delay. It came w/ SD leading 3-1 and afterwards, the Phillies wasted little time in tying the game up. So it appeared as if Mother Nature was certainly on the home team's side. Alas, a sac fly in the top of the ninth by the Padres' Austin Hedges ended up being the difference. That GW run was the lone run scored by the Padres last night that didn't come off a solo HR. Philly actually outhit them for the game, 9-8. The win was SD's 4th in the past 5 games, however, the road has generally been unkind to this ballclub throughout 2017. They're just 15-27 outside of Petco Park and getting outscored by 1.7 rpg in the process. I value that trend more than anything in today's matchup. Both of today's starting pitchers didn't allow a run in their respective last starts. But while the Padres' Jhoulys Chacin has been victimized by lack of run support more than anything else, there's no escaping the fact he's pitched very poorly on the road this season. In eight road starts, he has a 9.33 ERA and 1.991 WHIP. Therefore, it's actually a bit shocking to also see him w/ a 3-5 team start record. Meanwhile, the Phillies' Aaron Nola has simply been "lights out" of late as his ERA and WHIP over his L3 starts overall are 1.27 and 0.938. Last time out, he tossed seven shutout innings of four-hit ball against Pittsburgh. That also happens to be the last time the Phillies won. Facing a Padres lineup that ranks 30th (i.e. dead last!) in MLB in runs scored, team batting average and OBP should make for another quality effort from Nola here. 8* Philadelphia | |||||||
07-08-17 | Orioles +126 v. Twins | Top | 5-1 | Win | 126 | 3 h 24 m | Show |
8* Baltimore (2:10 ET): I'm "digging in my heels" w/ the Orioles here as they are now 0-5 this season head to head w/ the Twins. On the surface, neither side seems to have any dramatic edge over the other, so Minnesota having the O's number really makes little sense. The revenge angle that applies to Baltimore in this series remains one of my favorites as in today's game it's simply too hard to continually beat the same team day after day. The first two games of this series have been particularly frustrating for both myself and O's fans as the Twins have done all their scoring (15 runs) in four innings. That's some serious "cluster luck" there. In fact, in Thursday's opener, they scored all six runs in one frame. Last night was even more frustrating when you consider Baltimore had raced out to an early 6-0 lead before conceding the game's final nine runs! Revenge is still on the O's side and will be theirs Saturday afternoon. Maybe a starting pitching change will do Baltimore some good here. Now Wade Miley was by no means effective his last time out. He allowed seven runs in 1 2/3 innings in what was a truly ugly performance, his worst of 2017, in fact. But I believe the southpaw will rebound today, if for no other reason than he's "due." Note that going into June 1st, Miley was sporting a 2.82 ERA. Admittedly, this has not been a good stretch for him or the team, which has lost five straight and seven of the last eight. But I remain highly skeptical of a Twins team that is somehow above .500 despite a run differential of -50 for the season. Even after winning each of the L2 days, the Twins still have the worst home record in the American League. Adalberto Meija, also a lefty, will start here for Minnesota. He's 3-0 his L3 starts w/ a 1.53 ERA. As impressive as that might sound, his 1.302 WHIP during the same stretch indicates he's had good fortune. Furthermore, Meija's numbers over the course of the season are far from impressive. Here at Target Field, he has a 5.66 ERA and 1.685 WHIP in seven starts. Given that Baltimore has jumped on both Twins' starters they've faced so far, I have no reason to doubt they can do the same to Meija. I feel that the O's have looked like the better team for the majority of those two games; it's just that the Twins have been able to produce a couple of big innings. Rarely are the Twins priced this high, even at home. 8* Baltimore | |||||||
07-07-17 | Orioles -115 v. Twins | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (8:10 ET): Up 2-0 entering the bottom of the third, my Run Line play on the Orioles (+1.5) last night was looking pretty good. Unfortunately, that was when the "dam broke" and Minnesota scored six runs in the inning and wound up winning by two. Needless to say, it was a very frustrating result w/ the Twins scoring all of their runs in just one inning, all coming w/ two outs! They benefited from two fielders' choices plus a hit batsmen. Other than that one inning, they had just five hits in the game. Baltimore outhit them overall 11-8, but left runners on base in the 7th (bases loaded!), 8th and 9th innings and went just 2 for 9 w/ RISP, leaving 10 men on base. They still have revenge from a prior sweep at the hands of the Twins (that occurred at Camden Yards back in May), which is why I'll back them here again tonight. The Twins continue to be one of the most curious teams to evaluate in all of MLB. They're three games above .500 despite an awful -53 run differential. They also have the worst home record in all of baseball at 19-26. Now, I'm well aware that Baltimore has the American League's worst run differential (-85) and is 15-29 on the road this season. But while yday brought what appeared to be an outstanding pitching matchup (on paper) of Bundy vs. Berrios, tonight's appears squarely in favor of the Baltimore camp w/ Kevin Gausman opposing Felix Jorge. The latter has made only one start for the Twins and while it was a win, he also allowed three runs and seven hits in just five innings while striking out only two batters. He's a spot starter, only pitching here because of an injury to Hector Santiago. Minnesota has been outscored by 1.3 rpg at home this year, which is downright shocking. Gausman is off B2B very impressive outings, having not allowed a single run in 12 1/3 IP (only six hits). Yes, he has had his share of struggles at times this year. But it appears as if he's turning things around. Something that the Orioles have NOT been able to take advantage of this week is the return of ace reliever Zach Britton to the bullpen. His injury-induced absence was a major culprit in the team's overall decline in the last month or so. Had Bundy been able to turn over a lead last night, we would have seen Britton and I have no doubt he would have closed the game. As it stood, the Baltimore bullpen pitched four shutout innings anyway. 10* Baltimore | |||||||
07-07-17 | Brewers v. Yankees -194 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -194 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
6* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): For about a month now, the Yankees have been slumping. They've dropped 16 of their last 22 games and as a result now trail the rival Red Sox by 3.5 games in the A.L. East. However, they still sport a tremendous run differential (+103) that is fourth best in all of baseball. I believe that this weekend, tonight in particular, offers up a tremendous opportunity for them to "get back on track" going into the All-Star Break. They'll host a Milwaukee team that had to play a make-up game on Thursday (at Chicago) and is now in its third city in as many days. While yday's 11-2 victory over the Cubs has to have the Brew Crew feeling pretty good about itself right now (was the team's 4th straight victory), heading into an American League venue puts them at a severe disadvantage. The Yankees had Thursday off, which is a nice advantage to have coming into this three-game set. It was a disappointing series earlier in the week, here in the Bronx against the Blue Jays, as the team wearing Pinstripes dropped two of three. Wednesday saw them rally back from a 5-0 deficit only to lose 7-6. All-Star reliever Dellin Betances has had a rough time of late, but I don't expect that to last. I also like tonight's starter, Jordan Montgomery, who checks in w/ a 1.056 WHIP his L3 starts. Not only that, but Montgomery is also riding a six-start unbeaten streak coming into Friday and since June 3rd, opponents are batting only .171 against him, including a miniscule .080 w/ RISP. I'd also like to point out that while the Yanks may be just 6-16 their L22 games, 12 of those losses have been by three runs or less. Here at Yankee Stadium, they are still outscoring the opposition by an impressive margin of 1.7 rpg. Milwaukee is your surprise leader in the NL Central, now 4.5 games ahead of the Cubs. But the current win streak of four games matches their longest of the season and tonight they send a struggling starter to the hill. That would be Junior Guerra, who in his L3 starts has a 9.64 ERA and 2.429 WHIP, obviously awful numbers. Guerra has also struggled all season outside of Miller Park, turning in a 6.19 ERA and 1.687 WHIP in three starts. He's failed to make it past four innings in B2B starts. The A.L. typically dominated Interleague Play and that's what I expect here. 6* NY Yankees | |||||||
07-06-17 | Padres v. Indians -173 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): I'm well-aware of the fact that the Indians' home record (18-23) leaves a lot to be desired. In fact, no team has lost more at the betting window in its home games (-23.8 units!) and it's not even close. Still, you'd expect the reigning AL Champs to at least be able to dominate a lowly National League team like San Diego here at Progressive Field. Instead, what has happened (so far) in this series is that Cleveland has lost 1-0 (as -315 favorites on the ML!) and 6-2 (were -245). This is the continuation of another disturbing trend for the Tribe, that being a 2-11 record in Interleague Play. Typically, we see the American League dominate these matchups. Not since '03 has the Senior Circuit produced a winning record in IL play! Because of the last two days' results, we are now able to get a better price on Cleveland and I'll call for them to avoid what would be a very embarrassing sweep. | |||||||
07-05-17 | Royals v. Mariners -131 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -131 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
8* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners are looking to avoid a three-game sweep here. Kansas City, meanwhile, has climbed out of its rather massive early season hole and is now three games above .500. That's quite the achievement for a club that was eight games below the "Mendoza Line" on Memorial Day. Other than Boston, no other American League team has been hotter over the past week as KC has won three straight and five of six. But I see them failing to sweep here as not only has there been a key line move for this Wednesday matchup, but the home team will send out Ariel Miranda, who has pitched very well this season at Safeco Field. Good value on the M's. Miranda has a 2.56 ERA and 0.905 WHIP at home. Therefore, I think it's fair to say he's deserving of far better than a 4-4 team start record here. His last start (Friday) came on the road and he was equally sharp, tossing seven shutout innings of two-hit ball as Seattle rolled the Angels, 10-0. That lowered his WHIP to 0.750 his L3 starts. He's gone 7+ innings in all three starts. Here, he'll be facing a Royals lineup that is not only 26th in runs scored, but also 29th in on base percentage. Miranda has allowed 2 ER or less in 8 of his past 10 starts overall. Seattle has lost six in a row at home after a 25-13 start to the season here. That losing streak can't continue, right? Kansas City counters w/ Jason Vargas, the AL leader in wins (12) and ERA (2.22). They are 12-4 in Vargas' 16 starts so far, so it definitely "says something" that Seattle is still favored on the money line tonight. Maybe it's because Vargas isn't quite as effective on the road. Or it could have something to do w/ the fact his strikeout numbers aren't all that impressive. In his L3 starts, Vargas' KW ratio is a rather pedestrian 9-6, hardly indicative of any kind of dominant pitcher. Only twice in his past 10 starts has he registered more than 5 K's. Note that the Royals have not swept any road series of three or more games all season! 8* Seattle | |||||||
07-05-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers -107 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
10* Texas (8:05 ET): I'm hoping that the "third time is the charm" here as the Rangers look to avoid what would be yet another three-game sweep at the hands of the red-hot Red Sox. Taking teams that have revenge for a prior series sweep (of 3+ games) is one of my favorite handicapping angles in MLB and has treated me quite well this week. But after getting swept up in Boston back in May, the Rangers have fared no better against them here in Arlington, dropping the first two games of this series. While they were able to take Monday's opener into extra innings (eventually lost 7-5), yday's game was never close and they ended up losing 11-4. As poor an outcome as that was, it "lays the groundwork" for a bounce back today, not just because the revenge angle is still in play, but also b/c home teams typically bounce back after a bad loss like the one Texas took on Tuesday. In past analysis, I've talked about (at great length) the Rangers' lack of "luck" compared to last year. Right now, they have a better run differential (+13) for the season than LY's team that won 95 games. The major difference is the record in one-run games as 2016 saw them go a historically good 36-11 while this year, they are 4-11. I admit that getting blown out w/ Yu Darvish on the mound has to be disheartening, but I believe the pieces are still in place for a rebound tonight. They too will face a weaker starting pitcher tonight, that being Doug Fister, who is making just his third start of the year for Boston. Fister has been okay so far, but hardly dominant. He also has issued six walks in 11 IP. Remember that the Rangers are still 7th in MLB in runs scored. Starting for Texas here will be Andrew Cashner. He took a bat to the forearm his last start (at Cleveland) and had to exit early, but X-rays came back negative and he's set to go tonight. One thing you'll notice when examining Cashner's season is that he's largely been "feast or famine." While he did not fare well against the Red Sox at Fenway Park (allowed five runs in 5 IP), I look for him to do better at home where his ERA is 3.10 this season. Also, tonight marks the 1st time all year that Cashner is off B2B non-quality starts. So, he's "due" for a quality effort here. There have been three times this year where he's turned in a quality start as a dog of +160 or higher on the ML. Texas is 4-1 this season after allowing 10+ runs and 7-4 off three straight losses. Surprisingly, Boston is just 24-24 this season when off a win. 10* Texas | |||||||
07-05-17 | Reds v. Rockies -145 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:40 ET): The Rockies returned home to Coors Field Monday somewhat w/ their "tails between their legs." They'd gone an ugly 1-8 on a nine-game road trip through the division and dropped 10 of 11 overall. But this homestand before the All-Star Break figured to signal a return to their early season success as they'd be hosting a pair of last place teams, Cincinnati and the White Sox. Sure enough, the first game went well as they beat the Reds 5-3 on Monday. But then came a bad 8-1 loss last night as the team failed to post B2B victories for what would have been the 1st time in over two weeks. Regardless, I expect they'll bounce back tonight in what could signal a strong close to the first half. The Reds are 13-26 on the road this year, getting outscored by 1.5 rpg. We have two starting pitchers tonight that have been sharp of late. For Colorado, Jon Gray was the lone starter to get a win on the last road trip. His return from a two-plus-month stint could not have gone any better as he struck out 10 and allowed just two runs in six innings against Arizona. The team has now won all four of his starts in 2017, three of those coming as ML underdogs. But winning this one is perhaps the most important. With the two teams ahead of them (Dodgers & D'backs) currently playing each other, the Rockies can't afford to let this golden opportunity to make up ground in the division slip away. Something worth mentioning about last night's debacle is that they had just as many hits (10) as the Reds. Unfortunately, they were all singles. Scott Feldman goes for Cincy tonight and he's 3-0 w/ a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP his L3 starts. He's made four quality starts in his L5 outings and has arguably been the Reds best pitcher in 2017. But on the road, he has an ERA of 4.74 and WHIP of 1.488 and Coors Field is obviously a difficult environment to pitch in. Also, I simply view him as being "due" for a bad outing. Feldman and the Reds also do not have history on their side here as they rarely have strung victories together over the last month. Their last win streak of 3+ games was nearly a month ago. Only three times this year have they won four or more straight games. They're a bad team and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see Colorado's offense (6th in runs scored) explode here. 8* Colorado | |||||||
07-05-17 | Giants v. Tigers -173 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -173 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
8* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Tigers snapped the Giants' six-game win streak yday afternoon while getting a much-needed win themselves. The team from the Motor City is somewhat "in limbo" right now as they're still eight games below .500, but they've at least been respectable at home where they've gone 22-19 overall including 3-1 when priced at -175 or higher on the money line. They're 10-3 the L3 seasons as a ML home fave of -175 to -250. As for the Giants, recent six-game win streak aside, they have fallen on hard times here in 2017. They have the second worst record in all of baseball and the third worst run differential. Not only are they just 2-6 vs. the American League this season, but overall, they've been outscored by 1.4 rpg on the road. This is a good matchup for the host Tigers, who I'll back in this price range. Since returning home on 6.27, Detroit has alternated wins and losses over a seven-game span. That pattern continuing would obviously not be good for us, but thankfully I see the trend coming to an end here. Not just for all the reasons detailed above, but also they are simply the better team here, plus the AL typically has its way w/ the NL in Interleague Play. In the past 20 seasons, the NL has posted a winning record in IL play only FOUR times and the last time they did it was 2003! This year has been no different w/ an 88-71 record posted by the AL and that includes a terrible 2-10 mark by Cleveland. Take the Tribe out and things look even more impressive at 86-61! Detroit is only 3-5 vs. the Senior Circuit. The Giants are one of the lowest-scoring teams in all of baseball (28th in runs scored), so I'm not worried at all about them getting the DH here. Yesterday saw Buster Posey DH and he went 0 for 4 at the plate. It's not just the Giants' lack of hitting that should concern them. Opponents are batting .275 against them as well. That's the second highest opponents' batting average in all of MLB. Tonight's starter Ty Blach has certainly been a big offender w/ a 6.19 ERA and 1.937 WHIP his L3 turns. This will be his 1st time pitching in an AL park this year, but it should be noted that the one AL lineup he did face this year (at home), scored seven times against him in 5 2/3 innings and that was the Royals, who are also one of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball. Detroit counters w/ Daniel Norris and while he's certainly no "Cy Young," he's shown glimpses of greatness. He should have little difficulty tonight facing a lineup that is 28th in OBP and last in slugging. 8* Detroit | |||||||
07-04-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers -125 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* Texas (8:05 ET): The Rangers season of ill-fortune continued last night w/ an extra-inning loss to the Red Sox by a score of 7-5. As discussed in great detail yday, after having incredibly good fortune in 2016, things have basically gone the exact opposite way for Texas this season. Last year, they won 95 games despite a run differential of only +8 as they turned in a historically great 36-11 record in one-run games. This season, they are three games below .500 despite having outscored the opposition by 20 runs as they are 6-14 in one-run games and keep in mind that doesn't even include last night as they fell by two runs in an 11-inning affair. The Rangers are now 0-4 head to head w/ the Red Sox this year, but that only makes the revenge angle that much stronger here. Turns out that pushing Yu Darvish back a day in favor of Martin Perez was too much to overcome for the Rangers last night. Perez wound up allowing five runs in 5 2/3 innings and walked more batters (4) than he struck out (3). He put his team in an early hole, though they were able to pull off a rare rally at the expense of Boston closer Craig Kimbrell, who gave up a HR for only the second time all year. The rally could have been even more had Dustin Pedroia not made an outstanding play in the field. It should also be pointed out that three of the Red Sox runs scored last night were unearned thanks to Rangers' reliever Tony Barnette throwing a wild pitch. The issues we had w/ Perez last night should not be present here w/ Darvish as the latter has most looked great in 2017. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but two of his last 16 starts. Given his 3.03 ERA and 1.084 WHIP, Darvish is deserving of far better than the current 8-9 team start record. The Rangers have actually lost the L3 times he has taken the mound despite him allowing just three runs and nine hits in his L13 IP (16-1 KW ratio). Darvish did NOT face Boston in the previous series between these teams, but in two home starts against them previously he has 26 strikeouts and a 1.72 ERA! I expect Darvish to outduel David Price here as Boston's starter has never fared all that well against Texas, turning in a 5.52 ERA in 13 career starts. Price also finds himself in the middle of some controversy for reportedly "making a scene" on a team flight by arguing w/ commentator Dennis Eckersley. In his four road starts this year, Price has a 5.32 ERA and 1.409 WHIP. Boston may be the hottest AL team right now (won five straight), but they won't have an answer for Darvish. 10* Texas | |||||||
07-03-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers +107 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
10* Texas (8:05 ET): There's a real sense of irony w/ this year's Rangers, who have outscored opponents by 22 runs despite being two games over .500. Last year's 95-win team (that earned homefield advantage in the AL Playoffs) only outscored its opponents by a measley EIGHT runs over the course of the season! The key to 2016 was a historically great 36-11 record in one-run games. This year, that record has dipped all the way down to 6-14, which is the WORST such percentage in all of baseball! Funny how that works out. This narrative figures to continue throughout the campaign as the Rangers clearly aren't going to win as many games as LY despite the fact they'll probably outscore opponents by a far greater margin. Here, I believe the Rangers are a great play as they return home following a 4-6 road trip. They missed out on a chance to finish .500 on the trip by losing 6-5 to the White Sox, who committed FOUR errors! It was a brutal (one-run!) loss as reliever Joe Leclerc served up a two-run HR in the bottom of the eighth. Even more frustrating is the fact they outhit the White Sox, 9-5. Offense was not really a problem for the Rangers in Chicago as they totaled 22 runs in the three-game series. The bullpen was generally terrible, however, blowing late leads in both losses. That puts an onus on tonight's starter Martin Perez, who is coming off a brief stint on the DL. Originally, this was supposed to be Yu Darvish's turn in the rotation. But while going from Darvish to Perez is rightfully considered a "downgrade," note Perez did win his two starts previous to going on the DL. Texas is 22-17 at home this year and I believe this is a good spot to fade Boston, who is coming off a 15-1 win Sunday and sweep of the Blue Jays. Overall, it's been four straight wins for the Red Sox (who now lead the AL East by three games), but the Rangers have revenge here for a prior three-game sweep suffered at Fenway Park (back in May). Boston is just 22-21 on the road this season as opposed to 25-14 at home. Returning to the concept of regression to the mean, how about last year's AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello? I don't think anybody felt he would duplicate LY's 22-4 campaign, but the regression has taken hold far more severely than even I or the most pessimisstic person could have anticipated. Porcello is now 1-5 over his L7 starts w/ a 6.07 ERA and for the year, he has a 5.06 ERA and 1.514 WHIP. Last time out, he became the first pitcher in all of MLB to reach double digit losses this season (4-10 in 17 starts). While he did beat Texas back on 5.23, he did so in spite of allowing five runs and 11 hits. With the ESPN cameras present, I expect an inspired effort from the home team here. 10* Texas | |||||||
07-02-17 | Nationals -128 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:05 ET): The Nats have lost the first two of this three-game set, but thankfully have Max Scherzer to fall back on Sunday night. Scherzer is deserving of far better than a 10-6 team start record as his ERA is 2.06 and his WHIP is 0.783. Both of those numbers are MLB bests and somehow, it appears as if Scherzer is only getting stronger as the year progresses. He has a 0.82 ERA and 0.500 WHIP over his last three starts, although his last one marked the first time in over a month (seven starts) that he did not strikeout at least 10 batters. Scherzer does have a worthy adversary Sunday night in the form of Carlos Martinez, but he's simply the better pitcher here and provided the Nats' offense can wake up, I see them avoiding the sweep. Even after losing 2-1 last night, Washington is still a very impressive 33-14 in night games this season. Losing skids like their current one (three games) simply don't come around often. There have been two times this year when they've lost four straight. But that's it. Of course, Scherzer is the definition of a "stopper" being that he's now allowed 1 or 0 ER in six of his past seven starts. Incredibly, he has allowed more than three earned runs just ONE time all season. That came back in late April. June saw him allow just two home runs, not to mention only 14 hits overall! He allowed eight runs total (actually unlucky given all the other numbers!) in 36 1/3 IP (five starts) and had a 51-6 KW ratio. A hit batsman, then a triple accounted for the lone run allowed his last time out. After that, he allowed only one more runner to reach base. The only reason he pitched only six innings is because the Nats had a sizable lead. St. Louis may have won four straight, but they're still two games below .500. They've done a good job keeping Washington's offense in check (so far) in the series, holding them to just a pair of runs, one of which was scored in the ninth yday (when up 2-0). But the Cards were actually outhit Saturday (6-4), so their own lineup isn't exactly hitting the cover off the ball and that figures to continue here facing Scherzer, who has allowed just four runs in 18 IP @ Busch Stadium. Now, Carlos Martinez certainly isn't bad and truthfully, that's putting things mildly. But he just isn't as good as Scherzer. Washington also has the better offense here as they average 5.5 runs per game and have hit 121 home runs. 10* Washington | |||||||
07-02-17 | Cubs -133 v. Reds | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (1:10 ET): It's become readily apparent that this year's Cubs are nowhere near as dominant as the team that "ended the curse" last year (1st World Series win since 1908!). Here in Cincinnati, they've dropped the first two of a three-game set (I had the Reds Friday). That, right there, could be considered "Exhibit A" as to the difference between the Cubs this year and last. In 2016, they were 15-4 head to head w/ their overmatched NL Central rival and 28-10 against them since the start of the 2015 season. "Exhibit B" as to the Cubs' struggles this year would be the performance of Jake Arrieta, whose TSR (Team Start Record) is now just 8-8. He has a 4.67 ERA and 1.365 WHIP, which would have been considered unfathomable just a season ago. Despite all that I've mentioned here though, I still feel the Cubs have enough to avoid the sweep Sunday! The Reds do have a winning record at home and seem better than last year's club, which had the worst overall record in the National League. Yet, despite what the rather minimal 4.5 game gap in the standings says, these two teams are still "miles apart" in terms of talent, at least from where I sit. Injuries have been a part of the problem for the Cubbies so far, but thankfully both Kris Bryant and Ben Zobrist are now back in the lineup. It should be pointed out that they led 3-0 yday. Admittedly, a three-run third is the ONLY inning in which they've scored in this series, but don't you think the offense is likely to turn things around against Tim Adelman, who has a 5.62 ERA and 1.750 WHIP his L3 starts? Adelman somehow got away w/ allowing five runs in five innings his last time out, including three home runs. I say "got away" b/c the Reds still somehow won that game, 8-6 over Milwaukee. But they'd also lost the last three times he went to the mound. Arrieta's last start made headlines for all the wrong reasons as the Nationals stole SEVEN bases against him, prompting criticism from (now former!) teammate Miguel Montero. I anticipate him being highly motivated today. He's 6-2 in eight career starts vs. the Reds including a no-hitter last year. The Cubs have not been swept here in Cincy since '96 and despite their sub-.500 record remain the class of the division. 8* Chi Cubs | |||||||
07-01-17 | Mariners v. Angels -113 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Mariners came in and embarrassed the Angels last night, taking the series opener 10-0. But before we go and proclaim the home team "dead and buried" in this series, let's not be quick to forget that the M's had lost four in a row - all at home - including two to the horrid Phillies. While they've now been outscored 21-3 in the past two meetings (includes 11-3 loss back on May 4th), the Halos actually still sport a winning record against Seattle this year (4-3) and they also remain slightly ahead of them (by one-half game!) in the AL West standings. A home team that gets embarrassed in the fashion that LA was last night is obviously going to be highly motivated to exact revenge and that's what I'm counting on here. Prior to his last time out, Angels starter Ricky Nolasco had lost seven consecutive decisions and his TSR (team start record) in his L10 starts was 0-10. Certainly, no one anticipated that streak to end Monday when he faced the Dodgers as a massive +205 dog on the ML. But it did! Nolasco threw 6+ scoreless innings of five-hit ball in what was his best outing of 2017 to date. While it was not an overall good month of June, Nolasco has had his share of quality outings this year, one of them coming here at home vs. Seattle back on 4.8 when he allowed just two runs and four hits in six innings of work. Note that the # of runs Seattle scored yday equaled the number of total runs scored their previous four games. This team is just 15-24 on the road this season, getting outscored by nearly a full run per game. That's AFTER factoring in last night's result. Symbolic of the Mariners' struggles away from home is the pitching of tonight's starter Sam Gaviglio. While the 27-year old rookie has posted a 2.00 ERA in five starts at Safeco Field, his road ERA is just 5.51. I think a 6-2 team start record for Gaviglio is a tad bit misleading as his KW ratio his L2 starts is a poor 4-7. He has not faced the Angels this season. Though last night was certanly an undesirable result, let's also recall that other recent poor offensive nights can be explained by a pretty brutal scheduling stretch. The Angels just had to play the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers before this series and the fact they went 6-4 against three of the best teams in all of baseball is to be commended. Gaviglio has yet to make it past the sixth inning in any start in his rookie season and that means the respective bullpens have to come into play, an area where the Angels have a slight advantage. (Seattle's bullpen ERA/WHIP on the road is 4.91/1.370). 8* LA Angels | |||||||
06-30-17 | Rays -127 v. Orioles | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (7:05 ET): Last weekend in Tampa, the Orioles took two of three from the Rays, which is surprising not only b/c they were pretty sizable underdogs on the ML for all three games, but also due to the O's rather dramatic home vs. road splits this season. While they are coming off a surprising 4-2 road trip overall (also took two of three from Toronto), Baltimore is still only 14-24 on the road this year as opposed to 25-15 at Camden Yards. So, you might now be set to conclude that the O's are in good shape this weekend due to getting the Rays in their home ballpark. But let's not be fooled by that home record, okay? Incredibly, the O's have been outscored here at Camden Yards, contributing to an overall -65 run differential that's second worst in the American League and fifth worst in all of baseball. This team is being "propped up" by an extremely fortunate 9-1 record in extra inning games this year, something that simply won't be sustained. I'm on the road team, who is the better team, in this one. I've said it before and I'll say it again - "what a difference a year makes for Chris Tillman." The Baltimore starter ranked third in all of baseball in net units earned in 2016, but his ERA and WHIP were not indicative of that kind of success, so it's no surprise to have seen him fall pretty hard this serason. But the fall from grace has been even uglier than expected as he comes into tonight sporting atrocious numbers, such as an 8.39 ERA and 2.182 WHIP for the season. Believe it or not, he's actually been even worse lately, having allowed five or more runs in six consecutive starts. Shockingly, the O's have won the last two (despite Tillman not lasting longer than 4 1/3 IP either time!), but that's clearly not a sustainable blueprint for victory. Note that there is a chance Tillman may be scratched here as his wife is expecting the couple's first child. If that's the case, Dylan Bundy will start in Tillman's place. If that happens, this play will still stand. Part of the reason the play would still stand is that TB will go w/ Jacob Faria, who is 4 for 4 in terms of quality starts so far this season. If it's Bundy going, then Faria would have "immediate revenge" as those two faced off last Saturday w/ the Orioles winning a misleading 8-3 final. Faria had seven strikeouts against just one walk, but was eventually doomed by the Rays' bullpen. Previously, Faria had allowed just 3 total ER in his first three starts (19 2/3 IP). If it's Tillman and not Bundy, obviously that's okay as it's a weaker opposing starting pitcher. Bottom line is that TB is the better team here w/ the pitching edge. They are a perfect 3-0 this season following a shutout loss (lost 4-0 last night at Pittsburgh) and the offense should pick things up this weekend after having to play in a NL park (no DH!) the last series. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
06-28-17 | Braves v. Padres -118 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* San Diego (10:10 ET): Of the four revenge minded teams I took yday (Cin, Tex, Oak, SD), the Padres were the lone one that was unable to exact. No matter; I'll just come back and "double down" on them today. While they certainly profile as one of the worst teams in all of baseball, a home win over a team like the Braves is not something that should be difficult to achieve. Granted, last night, they were shut out by a rookie (Sean Newcomb). But they also collected nearly as many hits as did the Braves (7 vs. 8) and were it not for some very disputable calls from the umps, the final score could have turned out much differently. Newcomb certainly appeared to benefit from home plate umpire Lance Barrett's generous strike zone and what looked like a 1st inning HR by Wil Myers was turned into a ground-rule double. Lost in the Padres' loss Tuesday was another strong outing from Jhoulys Chacin, who for the third time in four starts went at least seven innings and retired the final 10 batters he saw. Fortunately, San Diego should again be able to lean on its starter tonight. That would be Luis Perdomo, who is holding opposing hitters to a .197 average w/ RISP this season. His last three starts, most notably the last one, have all been lights out. While he did walk five batters last Friday here at home vs. Detroit, he didn't allow a single run in six innings of work and also allowed just two hits. He's gone at least six innings while allowing 3 ER or fewer four of his last five starts. Meanwhile, Atlanta is left to turn to 44-year old Bartolo Colon, who is nearing the end of the line (if he hasn't reached it already!). One would have to think that if Coloon doesn't pitch well here, it might be all over for him. In 59 IP this season, opponents are batting .332 against him w/ 11 home runs. That's not good. Nor is the fact that he's allowed six or more runs in 5 of his 12 starts this season. Overall, he has a 7.78 ERA and 1.712 WHIP. This will be his first time pitching since 6.5 (when he allowed 8 runs in just 3 2/3 IP) as he was just activated off the 10-day DL (oblique). But while that stint may have allowed his oblique to heal, it probably takes more than 10 days to fix his awful pitching! The Braves are 0-2 off a shutout victory this season. This is a rare chance to unload on the Padres. 10* San Diego. | |||||||
06-28-17 | Yankees -126 v. White Sox | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
10* NY Yankees (8:10 ET): The first two games of this four-game set have seen the teams exchange one-run victories. Last night saw the Yankees again fail to win B2B games for what would have been the 1st time in over two weeks. They lost (4-3) in walk-off fashion as their typically outstanding bullpen suffered a rare meltdown. After taking the lead w/ a three-run eighth, the Yanks allowed three runs themselves over the final two frames, two of those coming in the bottom of the ninth. An issue was that Aroldis Chapman was unavailable and hence Dellin Betances had to come on instead. It was only Betances' second blown save of the season. Despite what we've seen in this series, I remain a believer in the Yanks' pen and overall they are a much better team than the White Sox. I'm on the road team here. Last night's loss dropped the team wearing pinstripes one full game behind the rival Red Sox in the American League East. This despite the Yankees owning the vastly superior run differential (+95 vs. +40). In fact, only three teams (Houston, Dodgers, Arizona) throughout baseball have outscored their opponents by a wider margin this season than have the Yanks. A West Coast swing is what begat the current slide as the team is now just 3-10 its L13 games overall. But I view this as merely a "speedbump" rather than a signal of some long-term trend. On the other hand, despite their somewhat respectable -4 run differential, the White Sox are still 10 games below .500. Given that this was expected to a rebuilding year on the South Side of the Windy City, I do NOT expect the White Sox to continue to be competitive moving forward as their surprising pitching staff is due to fall off. Tonight will mark the 2017 debut of Carlos Rodon for the White Sox. Given what the starting rotation has pulled off so far this season, I can see how the team might be feeling optimistic w/ Rodon's return. But beware of a starter in his return from a long stint on the DL, something we saw w/ Cole Hamels of Texas Monday night. Also, Rodon's career resume against the Yankees isn't good as he has a 9.64 ERA in three previous starts. The Yankees counter w/ Masahiro Tanaka, who may be having a bit of a "down year," but he also turned in eight scoreless innings his last time out. It was the fifth time in 15 starts that he allowed 1 or 0 ER. Tanaka has NEVER lost to Chicago, going 3-0 all-time. I remain unconcerned w/ the "bullpen issues" we've seen from the Yanks in the first two games. 10* New York | |||||||
06-27-17 | Braves v. Padres -105 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
8* San Diego (10:10 ET): Rarely will you get an endorsement of the Padres from me, but here they have revenge for a four-game sweep suffered in Atlanta back in April. They also had won three in a row before losing to the Tigers Sunday. The Braves are the rare opponent, that on paper, San Diego should beat (hence the money line here). That this will be just the 17th time that SD has been favored on the ML this year is certainly telling. They have been a .500 team here at Petco Park and the starting pitching matchup actually looks to be in their favor for Tuesday's opener. Atlanta had won four straight and seven of eight before getting shut out Sunday, so they're due to slow down. The Braves have certainly had a chance to get acquainted w/ their brand new stadium here in June. This series will be just their third on the road all month and second in the last three weeks. Their L10 games were all at home, so hence the minor turnaround. But let's see how they now perform out on the road. My guess is "not that well" and tonight's opener actually marks the first road start for Sean Newcomb at the big league level. Therefore, take his 1.96 ERA and 1.037 WHIP w/ a grain of salt. Troubling is that Newcomb was able to turn in those peformances, but the team still lost two of his first three road starts. I don't see him continuing this early prowess. The Padres will counter w/ Jhoulys Chacin, who has turned in three consecutive quality starts himself (2.70 ERA and 0.950 WHIP) and has a fantastic 0.883 WHIP for the season here at Petco Park (seven starts). Given that WHIP, I'd say he's owed a better team start record than 4-3. Opponents are batting just .161 against him at home. His last start at home, the only runs he gave up in seven innings came on a pair of solo home runs. Last time out, he allowed just two runs and five hits again, this time over six innings. That was in Wrigley though. So in Chacin's last three starts, he's allowed only 13 hits total (20 IP). One final thing to note is that Atlanta is just 5-24 its L29 games vs. the NL West. 8* San Diego | |||||||
06-27-17 | Brewers v. Reds -124 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (7:10 ET): This will the third city in three days for the Reds after playing a make-up game yday in St. Louis. But at least they're back at home where they've posted a winning record (19-18) this season. I did play against them yday and was rewarded for doing so w/ an easy 8-2 win by the Cardinals. But that was a situation that wasn't exactly ideal for St. Louis either as they had a very short turnaround after playing the Sunday night game (yday was a day game). The main reason I was on the Redbirds there was that they had revenge for a prior four-game sweep at the hands of the Reds (here at Great American Ballpark). Now the proverbial "shoe is on the other foot" here as it is the Reds looking to exact revenge for a three-game sweep suffered in Milwaukee back in April. The Brewers come into Tuesday still leading the NL Central by one game over the Cubs. But I don't think that anybody, myself included, feels that will hold. If anything, the Brew Crew have been able to take advantage of a weak division as the most games they've been above .500 this year is seven and that was back on May 19th. They are 7-1 head to head vs. the last place Reds, but note they lost money against this division rival each of the previous two seasons. The Brew Crew are simply a mediocre ballclub disguised as a first place one as is evident by the fact they were nearly just swept in Atlanta over the weekend. Starting tonight for them will be Junior Guerra whose 23-22 KW ratio over his L6 starts is worrisome. He has a 1.50 WHIP his L3 starts. The Reds have been in a bad way for several weeks now, dropping 14 of their last 16. But I do think that, at least in the short-term, they're due to bounce back a bit. Tim Adelman is the starter tonight and I expect him to outpitch Guerra. Believe it or not, but Adelman has allowed 3 ER or less in 11 of his 13 starts this season including six straight! So it's very deceiving that his team start record in those L6 starts is just 2-4. Milwaukee comes in averaging just 3.4 rpg its last seven contests, so it's a lineup Adelman should be able to handle. As I played against them yesterday, I obviously don't have a ton of positive things to say about the Reds right now, but the revenge angle remains one of my favorites and - like last night's play on the Giants over the Rockies - it's certainly telling that the Reds are ML favorites here. 8* Cincinnati. | |||||||
06-26-17 | Rockies v. Giants -128 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (10:05 ET): I don't think that there's been a more one-sided division rivalry this year (in terms of head to head results) than Colorado-San Francisco. The surprising Rockies are 10-1 H2H vs. the Giants, which certainly goes a long way in explaining the massive 20-game gap that exists in the NL West standings between the two teams. Of course, SF has more issues than just struggling against Colorado as they were just swept here at home by the Mets over the weekend. This perennial playoff contender now finds itself in the unusual position of having the second worst overall record (Phillies) in the sport as well as the second worst run differential (Padres). So, you might be surprised to learn that they are FAVORED tonight on the money line. I am not. The revenge angle (one of my favorites) is in play here and the Rockies arrive in town on their own five-game losing streak. Plus, we have Jeff Samardzija pitching for the Giants. Samardzija is a real key here. While his overall numbers may not "wow" you, his other-worldly 77-3 KW ratio (not a misprint!) over his L10 starts certainly should. He's allowed 3 ER or less in eight of those and while one of the two he didn't was against Colorado, that was also at Coors Field. He is 0-3 against the Rockies this year, but two of the starts were on the road and he was a lot better in the one here at AT&T Park. For seemingly the entirety of the franchise's existence, Colorado has seen its offensive production plummet outside of Coors Field. This year, they average 4.6 rpg on the road. The Rockies only scored seven runs total in three games at Dodgers Stadium over the weekend and six of those came in yday's loss. That 12-6 defeat does not set them up well today as their record after allowing 10+ runs the previous game is 2-6 this season. Though it's been a tight three-horse race in the NL West all season, a pretty clear cut case can be made that Colorado is the weakest of the three teams as they trail - significantly - both the Dodgers and D'bcks in run differential. Of course, all five losses during the current streak came to those two teams. They've obviously had the Giants' number in 2017, but like their road record, doesn't that have to regress a little? Starter German Marquez has dazzled of late, but I'm still a skeptic as his road WHIP is 1.400. 10* San Francisco | |||||||
06-26-17 | Reds v. Cardinals -141 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (4:15 ET): Many times, the team coming off the Sunday Night games is at a slight disadvantage playing on Monday as its opponent has had more lead in time. But despite this being an even quicker turnaround than per usual, I don't really feel as if that's the case for the Cardinals today in this make-up affair w/ the Reds. First off, they get to stay at home. Secondly, they have a big-time case of revenge on their minds after suffering a shocking sweep in a four-game series at Great American Ballpark earlier this month. Speaking of shocking, that sweep put the Reds at 7-2 head to head in this NL Central rivalry this season, but I feel it's them at the slight disadvantage as they've got to fly out to another city for one day after visiting Tampa Bay and Washington last week (went 2-4). With the revenge angle kicking in, this is an easy call. For those "new to the program," I like to take teams playing w/ revenge for a prior series sweep of three games or more. Generally speaking, it has become increasingly difficult for to beat the same team, day after day, in today's game. As mentioned above, the Reds pulled off their shocking sweep of the Cards earlier this month at home. On the road, this team is just 12-24 and being outscored by 1.5 rpg. That's even after winning 6-2 yday, thereby avoiding a sweep in Washington. It has been nearly three weeks since Cincy won B2B games (haven't done it since sweeping St. Louis) as they've gone 2-13 their L15 games overall. Today's starter, Brandon Finnegan, is making his return from a two-month stint on the DL and a rehab assignment where he allowed four runs in five innings was certainly an ominous sign. The Cardinals' offense reawakened last night w/ an eight-run output. Things looked somewhat grim early on as they trailed 4-2 going into the bottom of the sixth and were facing the prospect of being swept here in their own ballpark. Thankfully, things then turned their way w/ B2B explosive innings at the plate. With the Reds allowing 6.2 rpg in day games (11-19 record), the chance of another strong offensive effort is there. Michael Wacha will be the one toeing the rubber here for the Redbirds and there's no real sugarcoating the fact he's struggled in recent starts. But, Cincinnati (who he has not faced since his first start of the year) just might be the opponent for him to turn things around. Including six strong innings where he allowed just one run and three hits (back on 4.8), Wacha is 7-1 w/ a 2.95 ERA lifetime against the Reds. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
06-25-17 | Rangers v. Yankees -204 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -204 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
6* NY Yankees (2:05 ET): After outlasting the Rangers 2-1 (in 10 innings) in Friday's opener, the Yankees were thoroughly dominated Sat afternoon in an 8-1 loss. I made the mistake of taking the team wearing pinstripes yday, but I'm "doubling down" here. Mainly because the starting pitching matchup is heavily slanted in their favor. Needless to say this looks like the biggest mismatch on the mound on the entire Sunday slate. Texas is forced to go w/ Nick Martinez, who despite a 6-4 team start record, grades out as potentially the weakest starter in any rotation in all of baseball. The Yankees will counter w/ Michael Pineda, who has been outstanding all season here at Yankee Stadium. Even after Saturday's loss, the Yanks are still outscoring visitors by a full 2.0 rpg here in the Bronx. I'm anticipating a blowout today as the Bronx Bombers should get back on track offensively. Admittedly, Martinez is off B2B quality outings. He allowed only one run and two hits in 6 1/3 IP vs. Toronto his last time out. But that came after allowing a total of 5 HR's his previous two starts. A 4.58 ERA and 1.246 WHIP indicate that Martinez should feel somewhat fortunate to have a winning team start record. He's been particularly bad on the road w/ a 5.27 ERA and 1.464 WHIP. Yes, the Yankees' bats have been silent so far in this series, but they average 6.2 runs per game at home for the year. Might a matchup w/ Martinez be what awakens the offense? I think so. Also, the Rangers' bullpen has some really ugly numbers outside of Arlington as well, namely a 6.05 ERA and 1.700 WHIP. Meanwhile, Pineda has thrived here at Yankee Stadium as is evident by a 6-1 record in eight starts to go along w/ a 1.92 ERA and 0.948 WHIP. Yes, he's struggled in the past vs. the Rangers and the team is just 2-9 its L11 games overall. However, let us not be quick to forget that this is still one of the best teams in all of baseball as their YTD run differential is +96, which is second best in the American League. Texas is an interesting case study as LY they won 95 games, but outscored opponents by only eight runs. This year, the record is just .500, but they're +28 in run differential! I earmarked them early for regression this season and like the oddsmakers I don't like their chances - at all - today. 6* NY Yankees | |||||||
06-25-17 | Twins v. Indians -132 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -132 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:10 ET): Coming into this three-game series, the Indians had mostly dominated the Twins this season, going 8-2 head to head. A four-game sweep in Minnesota last weekend actually led me to take the Twins in Friday's opener due to the revenge angle. They won in shutout fashion, 5-0. Then came an absolute stunner Saturday as the Twins won again, this time as massive +245 money line underdogs (higher at some shops!) against Corey Kluber. Breaking down this AL Central race (which is basically just these two teams), I continue to be a bit confounded by how both the Tribe and Twins have been so much better on the road than at home this season. Minnesota is just 16-25 at Target Field while 22-9 on the road. It's a similar story for Cleveland, who is 15-19 here at Progressive Field, but 24-15 on the road. I'll call for that trend to come to a temporary halt today, however, as the Indians should be able to avoid the sweep. Looking at run differential, there can be no denying that Cleveland is the superior team here. They've outscored opponents by 49 runs this year (3rd best in the A.L.) while Minnesota has actually been outscored by 42 runs (3rd worst in A.L.). Note that despite the losing record here at home, Cleveland has still outscored visitors here at Progressive Field (4.7 to 4.2 rpg). Yes, the Twins do have their best pitcher (Ervin Santana) going today, but he's coming off B2B poor outings where he's allowed a total of 11 runs (4 HR's) on 19 hits in just 10 IP. He's also not fared too well here in Cleveland throughout his career, going 6-11 w/ a 4.00 ERA. I'm not sure how long he's going to be able to keep this surprise season of his up. The visitor is now 11-1 in Twins-Indians games this season, which is difficult to explain. Last night, Minnesota scored twice in the first inning, but then not again until the eighth and ninth, which was ultimately the difference in a 4-2 victory. The Indians outhit the Twins in the game 8-5, so there was definitely some "cluster luck" for the visitors there. Something else to consider when handicapping this game is that it's in the daytime and that favors Cleveland, who is 18-9 in day games compared to just 14-20 for Minnesota. Indians' starter Josh Tomlin is admittedly a bit of a question mark, but the last time he faced the Twins (was here at home and against Santana), he went eight innings and allowed just one run (on a solo HR) in what was one of his best outings of 2017 so far. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
06-24-17 | Mets v. Giants -105 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (7:15 ET): Not even a return home could cure what ills the Giants, at least last night, as they dropped the series opener to the Mets by a score of 11-4. It marked San Fran's 9th loss in the past 10 games and as discussed in an analysis earlier in the week (when I played AGAINST them Weds @ Atlanta), they now own not only MLB's second worst record (ahead of only the Phillies), but also it's second worst run differential as well (ahead of only San Diego). A lot of that is owed to a disastrous 13-30 mark on the road where they've been outscored by an almost mind-numbing 1.8 runs per game. At home, save for last night, they've at least been more competitive. It should be pointed out that the Mets hardly arrived in "fine form" either as they'd dropped seven of eight before Friday's win. It's a strong-looking pitching matchup tonight, at least on paper, as Johnny Cueto faces off w/ Jacob deGrom. But while both currently sport winning team start records this year, the numbers are hardly representative of dominant pitching. deGrom is off B2B outstanding outings against the Nats & the Cubs, but both were at home. Previously, he'd actually been rocked in two straight showings, giving up 15 ER in just 8 IP. He has a 5.19 ERA on the road this year. The Mets have been giving up a ton of runs in general away from Citi Field as they allow 5.9 per game. Part of that is also due to a bullpen which has a 6.44 ERA and 1.69 WHIP outside of Citi Field. A huge second inning (scored six times) is what propelled to Mets to victory last night. They would finish the game w/ 20 hits, more than they had in the previous three games combined. It, in fact, matched a season-high and was just the sixth time this month they had double-digit hits in a game. I realize that Cueto appears to be regressing this season, but I'm calling for a quality outing here as he's allowed 3 ER or less in four of his five previous starts, including the last one where he held Atlanta to just two runs and five hits in seven innings of work. Who's behind the plate (umpire) is a key component of MLB handicapping these days and here we have an ump (Marvin Hudson) who Cueto has never lost with. In fact, Cueto is 4-0 in five career starts w/ Hudson behind the plate and a 2.45 ERA. Speaking of behind the plate, catcher Buster Posey will be back in the lineup tonight after basically being given Friday off (only came in to pinch hit). 10* San Francisco | |||||||
06-24-17 | Rangers v. Yankees -142 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -142 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): It took an additional inning, but the Yankees did dispose of the Rangers in Friday's opener, 2-1. I was of the opinion that this weekend would be kind to the team wearing pinstripes as they are still trying to recover from last week's somewhat disastrous 1-6 West Coast road trip. A return to the Bronx didn't result an immediate bounce back to the start the week as the Yanks dropped two of three to the Halos. But having already escaped Texas' best pitcher (Yu Darvish) on Friday, you have to believe it could be "smooth sailing" for the rest of the series as the Rangers won't be able to throw out anyone close to that caliber on the mound. A quick turnaround after a crushing loss last night's does the road team no favors here. The offense managed only four hits Friday evening and their only run scored came on a passed ball. But that lone run came in the top of the ninth, breaking a scorless tie, so they had to still be feeling pretty good about themselves at the time. But not for long. With only two outs to go, reliever Matt Bush gave up a home run to Brett Gardner in the bottom half of the ninth, forcing extra innings. From there, they would go on to lose in the next frame. Darvish was able to counteract the Rangers' inept offense last night, but I would not expect the same from Austin Bibens-Dirkx today. Dirks has not only allowed a HR in all three starts this year, but was tagged for five runs his last time out, at home vs. Toronto. The Yankees lineup, led by Aaron Judge, will be his toughest task yet. The Yankees have been a strong team all year in the Bronx, going 24-11 overall. Going into yday's game, they had outscored their opponents here by an average of 2.3 runs per game (3rd best average in MLB). That's played a significant role in the team being #3 overall in MLB in run differential, behind only Houston and the Dodgers. Even after the bad road trip, it was a shock to see them drop two of three here to the Angels to start the week, especially considering they were north of -200 on the ML for all three games. By comparison, this price is a downright bargain. Now some of that has to do w/ Luis Cessa making just his second start of 2017. But I've got enough confidence in him facing a Rangers lineup which has barely cracked .220 for the season on the road. The Yankees' lineup is the one far less likely to be held in check for a second straight game. 8* NY Yankees | |||||||
06-23-17 | Pirates +107 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 107 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (8:15 ET): The Cardinals are finally back home, but that alone is unlikely to change what ills them. Take away games played against Philadelphia (worst team in baseball) and the Redbirds are a lousy 3-12 overall (5-1 vs. Philly). Furthermore, they lost to the Phillies yday afternoon by a score of 5-1. Now back in April, they did sweep the division rival Pirates, with all three games decided by the same 2-1 score. But that puts the revenge angle in play for this weekend's series and the Bucs come to town with that still on their minds. While it was only a four-game split w/ first place Milwaukee to start the week (on the road), the Pirates outscored the Brew Crew considerably in that series and one of the two losses (Weds) was by one run. A significant edge for Pittsburgh in this game is getting to face Adam Wainwright. A Cy Young contender several seasons ago, Wainwright has fallen on "hard times" here in 2017. Of late, he has been nothing short of spectacularly awful w/ a 17.41 ERA and 2.515 WHIP his L3 starts. Those numbers are hard to put up, but twice during that stretch he's allowed nine runs while failing to make it out of the fourth inning. Last time out, he lasted only 1 2/3 innings and allowed three home runs (at Baltimore). I played against him there and will do so again tonight. His career ERA vs. Pittsburgh is only 4.33. He did not face them in the series back in April. While supporters may wish to point to a 2.88 ERA at home this year, his WHIP is 1.426, indicating he's been fortunate not to have allowed more runs. The Bucs counter w/ Jameson Taillon, who is obviously one of the great stories here in 2017. This will be his third start since returning from treatment for testicular cancer. Obviously, he'd like to resemble the pitcher we saw in his first start back (five shutout innings vs. Colorado) as opposed to the one we saw the last time out (allowed four runs to the Cubs). Though he was in the rotation for all of April, like Wainwright, he missed the earlier series between these two teams. He's faced St. Louis only one time, last year, and fared well by giving up only two runs in 5 IP. These two clubs are rated fairly evenly in my book and even w/ the homefield advantage this weekend, I'm not certainly the slumping Cardinals do all that well. Look for the Bucs to avenge that prior sweep here. 10* Pittsburgh | |||||||
06-22-17 | Giants v. Braves -149 | Top | 11-12 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Needless to say, back in April, the Giants probably weren't thinking that by mid-June they'd be 20 games below .500 and have a worse record than the Braves. Yet, that is exactly where they are at coming into today. They've lost two of the first three games here at SunTrust Park where the home team is (finally) starting to pick up the pace, winning four of its last five. After allowing San Fran to tie the game w/ runs scored in the eighth and ninth innings last night, the Braves were able to win - in walk-off fashion - on a two-run HR by Matt Kemp in the bottom of the 11th. That's a really demoralizing loss for a Giants team that is now shockingly third worst in all of MLB w/ a -90 run differential after dropping 10 of its last 12 including 1-6 on the road trip that ends today. I believe it will end w/ a loss. Matt Cain is not a good pitcher. The Giants starter for Thursday comes in w/ a 6.91 ERA and 2.303 WHIP his L3 starts. That's even after allowing only two runs (just one earned) his last time out, in Colorado. That, right there, should tell you how bad he'd been previously. In road starts, he's 0-4 in seven tries w/ a 7.46 ERA and 2.058 WHIP. Overall, the team has dropped five of his last six starts. The really worrisome factor for Cain is his low strikeout totals. There have been only three times all year where he's struck out more than three batters, the last one coming back on May 15th. He did already lose to Atlanta once this year, though that had more to do w/ the other pitcher, Jaime Garcia. Cain will again be facing Garcia tonight. The Braves lefty will be looking to bounce back from an ugly showing in Miami last week where he allowed six runs. Performances such as that one have been few and far between for Garcia, however. Note that the six earned runs allowed last Saturday equaled the number he'd allowed in his previous five starts combined. During that stretch, he posted a 1.49 ERA. He's been the Braves pitcher this season and has had success in the past against the Giants, going 4-1 w/ a 2.54 ERA in five career starts. That includes him throwing 6 2/3 scoreless innings last month in San Fran and he allowed just four hits. He's recorded 16 K's his L2 starts overall and the home run ball has not been an issue for him. The Giants are an atrocious 13-29 on the road this year and overall, the offense ranks 28th in runs scored, batting average and OBP. They're 30th (last) in slugging. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
06-22-17 | Blue Jays -131 v. Rangers | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -131 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
8* Toronto (2:05 ET): In both 2015 and '16, the Blue Jays had their season end in the ALCS, losing to the Royals and Indians respectively. Texas is no stranger to the postseason either. They made B2B World Series appearances in 2010 & '11 (lost both times) and actually finished w/ the American League's best overall record LY (more on that in a moment). But it's looking less and less likely that these two perennial playoff teams will be back in the postseason this year. Toronto got off to a horrible start, one that they're just now starting to climb out of. Texas, on the other hand, actually now has a better YTD run differential (+15) than they did in LY's 95-win campaign (+8), but their record in one-run games has regressed from a historic 36-11 last year to 4-11 so far this year. So that's where we are w/ these two teams entering Thursday. The Jays have taken two of the first three games here in Arlington this week, including a 7-5 win last night. Today, they have Marcus Stroman on the bump and I expect them to win the series. Last night, the Jays raced out to an early 7-0 lead, scoring six of those runs in the top half of the 1st. That was more than enough for starter Joe Biagini, although the Rangers did rally a bit to make things close for the final three frames. A repeat of that kind of offensive production would certainly be more than enough for Stroman, who has actually done his best work on the road this year. His TSR is 5-0 in six road starts w/ a 2.95 ERA. His L3 starts overall have seen him deliver a 2.70 ERA and 0.95 WHIP and that's despite suffering a shocking loss (as a massive -235 ML favorite) his last time out vs. the White Sox. He allowed three solo home runs in that game, which proved to be his undoing. However, let's keep a couple things in perspective, shall we? One, the number of HR's allowed by Stroman in his last start were equal to the number he'd allowed in his previous seven - combined. He's also allowed 3 ER or less in seven of his last eight outings. It's a somewhat massive pitching mismatch here as Stroman is opposed by Martin Perez, who grades out as perhaps the worst starting pitcher on today's slate of games. Perez comes in sporting a 7.07 ERA and 1.929 WHIP his L3 starts, even though he won his last one (first win since 5.18). Rarely this year has the southpaw produced B2B quality outings. In fact, last time out wasn't even a quality outing as he allowed four runs in 5 1/3 IP, but was bailed out by his offense scoring 10 times. That won't happen here. This is a very big game for the Blue Jays as they have a chance (for the 1st time all season!) to get back to .500. 8* Toronto | |||||||
06-21-17 | White Sox v. Twins -185 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): Even at 35-33, the Twins would still qualify as a major surprise this year as you have to remember they lost 100+ games LY. Therefore, the fact they are an awful 15-24 at Target Field is downright shocking. But after being swept by Cleveland here at home over the weekend, they got to welcome the last place White Sox to town Tuesday and w/ their #1 pitcher (Ervin Santana) on the hill, they were able to eke out a 9-7 victory. Tonight, the pitching matchup actually looks even more lopsided (in the Twins' favor) as Jose Berrios (#2 starter) will be opposed by David Holmberg, who grades out as the weakest starter on the entire Wednesday slate. I believe that Minnesota's home record is likely to continue to progress to the mean, so another win should be in the cards here tonight. Berrios has been a solid #2 guy in the rotation behind Santana. He carries a 2.74 ERA and 0.957 WHIP in seven starts w/ the team winning six of them. He's off a season-high eight inning effort against Seattle last Thursday as he allowed just two runs and five hits. At home, his numbers have been slightly better. Among qualified starters, Berrios' 0.871 WHIP is among the best in all of baseball. While he has yet to contribute to his team's 6-3 record against the White Sox this season, he should fare well here against an offense that's likely to start regressing in the coming days. The White Sox are averaging just 4.3 rpg on the road so far. That's a big reason they're just 16-26 away from home. Holmberg has made just four starts this season for Chicago and his numbers may not seem to indicate he's likely to turn in one of the worst pitching performances on Wednesday. In fact, the Sox have actually won three of those four starts. But this is a pitcher w/ low strikeout numbers and he's also yet to make it past the fifth inning in any start. A 10-8 KW ratio in those four starts is indicative of someone who should NOT be winning and thus trouble may lie ahead. The White Sox are an interesting study as they have a positive run differential this year (+2) despite the losing record, but I don't think anyone envisions this pitching staff continuing its surprising early season success. Juxtapose that w/ Minnesota, who has a winning record, yet has been outscored by 42 runs over the course of the season. But again, that home record is very likely to improve moving forward. So I'll actually ignore what the respective run differentials say and back the team that - clearly - has the better starting pitcher on the hill tonight. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
06-21-17 | Nationals -155 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -155 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
8* Washington (12:10 ET): Max Scherzer at this price seems like a real bargain, even if his adversary (Dan Straily) is somewhat formidable. Miami's starter comes into Wednesday afternoon's matinee sporting a 3.58 ERA and 1.128 WHIP, making his 7-7 overall team start record a bit misleading. But there's nothing misleading about Scherzer, who comes into today w/ a 2.26 ERA and 0.843 WHIP. He's been even better on the road than at home and of late, he's been downright dominant everywhere he's pitched. We're talking a 1.21 ERA and 0.672 WHIP his L3 starts including another double digit strikeout performance his last time out. Scherzer's last five starts have all been quality (four of them he allowed 1 ER or less) and his KW ratio during that time is 58-7. Let it be noted that the Nationals did drop the series opener here in Miami, losing 8-7 Monday. That game saw them blow an early 6-0 lead and lose on a walk-off. But there was no Marlins comeback yday as the Nats essentially dominated from "start to finish" in a 12-3 victory. This time, the bulk of their runs scored came at the end of the game (scored five times in the top of the ninth). There is no denying that Washington is running away w/ the NL East this year as they are 10.5 games up on the rest of the pack. Considering a 22-14 record vs the rest of the division, I think it's safe to just hand over the pennant now. The Nats are also a very strong 25-14 on the road this season, one of the best such marks in all of baseball. Having Scherzer on the hill is one thing. Pairing him w/ one of the top offenses in the game is another. With 19 runs already scored in this series, the Nats are back on top for most runs scored in all of MLB. They also rank 2nd in team batting average and slugging percentage and 3rd in OBP. Tonight will certainly be a challenge for Straily, who was already beat up once by these Nats back in April. In what is still his worst start of '17 to day, he allowed five runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Anything similar would basically be an "automatic loss" facing Scherzer, who iis 4-1 w/ a 2.60 ERA in five career starts in this ballpark. In all road starts this season, Scherzer has allowed just 31 hits in 58 2/3 IP. Last time out, he allowed just one run on four hits in an eight-inning effort at Citi Field (NY Mets). 8* Washington | |||||||
06-18-17 | Nationals v. Mets -147 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (1:10 ET): The Mets are facing the prospect of being swept at home, in a four-game series no less. But they have Jacob deGrom to "save" them Sunday, so I'll be calling for them to avoid the dubious distinction (four game sweeps by a road team are rare). Clearly, the National League East race is "all over but the shouting" this season w/ the Nats currently holding an 11-game lead over the rest of the field. The Mets, one of the biggest disappointments in all of MLB, are 11.5 gms back. This season has been riddled w/ injuries, but as mentioned earlier, at least they have deGrom here. Yes, he did have B2B poor starts on 5.31 and 6.6, but he bounced back Monday by delivering a five-hit complete game against the Cubs here at Citi Field. But perhaps the most important thing of all is the Mets will no longer have to face Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg. Washington had come into this series as losers of five of their last six, all at home, to Texas and Atlanta. But their rotation lined up perfectly for this series w/ Scherzer and Strasburg pitching the L2 days and they've now outscored the Mets 22-9 for the series. But today they'll have Joe Ross on the bump and clearly that's not as an attractive an option as Strasburg or Scherzer. Hence, for the 1st time all series, the Nats are an underdog on the ML. This will be just the 12th time all year that they've been available at 'plus money.' Ross comes in w/ a very misleading 6-2 team start record as his ERA is 6.39 and his WHIP is 1.511. On the road, the numbers get even uglier (8.59, 1.636). Last time out, he got away w/ allowing five runs and a negative KW ratio (2-3) against the lowly Braves. Other factors to consider here is that the Nats' bullpen (5.21 ERA, 1.44 WHIP) is shaky at best and the team's record when on a win streak of three or more games is only 6-6 this year. deGrom has a 3.40 ERA in nine career starts vs. Washington, much better than the 5.16 ERA Ross has in his four career starts vs. the Mets. New York has struggled at home this season, mainly due to the offensive numbers being far inferior compared to what they are on the road. But against Ross, they should have their chances at the plate today. They certainly had chances last night as well w/ the potential go-ahead run at the plate in the sixth, seventh and eighth innings. Failing to cash in all three times was brutal in an eventual 7-4 loss, but I don't envision them falling behind tonight w/ deGrom on the hill. Three times in his last five starts, deGrom has allowed 1 ER or less. 8* NY Mets |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |