Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-08-16 | Angels v. Yankees -170 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
8* NY Yankees (7:05 ET): Quite frankly, I'm not that high on either of these two for 2016, but the Yankees have clearly proven themselves to the better ballclub, at least in this series, by winning both games so far. I like them again tonight as they'll face Jered Weaver, who certainly has had his fair share of issues pitching on the road in the past. On the flip side, Yankees starter Nathan Eovaldi has pitched very well of late, turning in a 6-0 record and 3.35 ERA his L8 starts overall. The Angels simply haven't done much at the plate in this series and they've dropped seven in a row here at Yankee Stadium. Mike Trout and Albert Pujols are a combined 2 for 13 the L2 games and the team has only 11 hits. In 10 of the last 12 meetings w/ the Yankees, the Halos have finished with six or fewer hits. Weaver has a 5.22 ERA and 1.602 WHIP in five road starts this season. You may recall that he finished w/ the highest road ERA in all of baseball in 2015. Those struggles away from home clearly extend here into Yankee Stadium where his ERA is 8.71 in five career starts. Overall, he has a 5.83 ERA vs. the team in Pinstripes. While he did pitch surprisingly well his last time out, allowing just two runs over six innings at Pittsburgh, Weaver had previously allowed 17 runs in his L4 starts. He did give up two home runs against the Pirates. Eovaldi did allow five runs his last time out, but still ended up with somewhat of a "raw deal" as he was in line for a win when he exited the game. But the bullpen couldn't hold a 5-2 lead against Baltimore. Note that in his three starts previous to that, Eovaldi had allowed only two runs and nine hits over 18 IP. Curiously, the Angels are just 5-16 this year vs. teams that have a losing record. This price range has actually been quite friendly to the Yanks, who are 5-1 this year as home favorites of -150 to -175 on the money line. 8* NY Yankees | |||||||
06-08-16 | Cubs -177 v. Phillies | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
6* Chi Cubs (1:05 ET): I never fell for Philadelphia's surprisingly decent start as their run differential indicated they were quite fortunate to be winning so many ballgames. They've fallen off quite a bit over the couple weeks, dropping 13 of 18 overall, but still somehow are just one game below .500 despite a horrible run differential of -50, which is 5th worst in all of baseball. They obviously beat the Cubs yday, 3-2, improving their record in one-run games to a MLB-best 15-5. That is what is keeping them afloat. But speaking of run differential, the Cubs remain at a historic pace having outscored their opponents by 142 runs in 57 games so far. This series obviously still shapes up as a complete mismatch to me and because they're the road team, we're able to get a pretty decent value on the best team in baseball. Look for them to take the series. | |||||||
06-07-16 | Rays v. Diamondbacks -158 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
8* Arizona (9:40 ET): Throughout his career, Zack Greinke has been a dominant pitcher at home. However, the transition from Dodger Stadium to Chase Field in Arizona has been a difficult one. Through seven starts in his new home ballpark, he has a 6.54 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. But I have to believe we'll start to see him pitch better here moving forward. He comes off a dominant outing in Houston where he threw seven scoreless innings of four hit ball w/ 11 K's and no walks. Now he faces a Tampa Bay lineup that is among the lowest scoring in all of MLB and that's when they (mostly) have a designated hitter in the lineup. I'll call for the Rays win streak to end at four. Last night saw the road team prevail 6-4 and despite my earlier comment about them being among the lowest scoring teams in all of MLB, they have scored six runs or more in every game during the win streak. But that still places them only 20th in MLB in runs scored for the year and I expect regression to start to take place. This is a classic "sell high" opportunity on TB, who had lost five in a row prior to the current win streak. Three of these four wins came in a sweep of lowly Minnesota, remember. Injuries continue to hurt this team in a variety of ways. Arizona's 9-21 home record befuddles me as there's no way the team or Greinke should be this bad at Chase Field. Remember the D'backs just beat Jake Arrieta and the Cubs at Wrigley Field Sunday. Matt Moore has not pitched very well for the Rays this season as he has a 5.46 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in 11 starts. Things have only gotten worse of late w/ his ERA and WHIP being 6.48 and 1.920 his L3 starts overall. Greinke, meanwhile, has gone 4-0 his last four starts overall w/ a 2.57 ERA and 27-2 KW ratio. His best home start of the year came against an American League opponent, back on May 17th, as he held the Yankees to only three runs and five hits in seven innings. Again, I typically feel that AL teams are always at a disadvantage in NL parks because of the loss of the DH. Look for Greinke to slow down the Rays in this one. 8* Arizona | |||||||
06-07-16 | Cardinals -137 v. Reds | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -137 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (7:10 ET): I keep going back to the giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League. Coming into the year, there were exactly seven teams considered to be contenders in the Senior Circuit (Nats, Mets, Cubs, Cards, Pirates, Giants, Dodgers). Not surprisingly, those are the seven teams we currently find have positive run differentials at this point of the season. Most of the rest of the field are some real bottom-feeders and you can put the Reds at the bottom of that group. Cincy has a -91 run differential, second worst in all of baseball, ahead of only Atlanta. After recent series against the likes of the Giants, Nats and Cubs, this should be an easy series for the Redbirds, even on the road. I really like them in tonight's series opener. | |||||||
06-06-16 | Indians +111 v. Mariners | Top | 3-1 | Win | 111 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (10:10 ET): Having won five straight, the Indians are currently the hottest team in all of baseball. They just got done completely dominating the World Series Champion Royals, outscoring them 20-2 over the course of the last three games and taking over first place in the American League Central in the process. Normally, I might advise to "sell high" on the Tribe in this instance, but tonight is not a good time to be playing the Mariners, who ended up on the wrong end of a sweep themselves over the weekend, dropping all three games at Texas. Seattle has been really disappointing here at home w/ a 12-14 record at Safeco Field. I look for Cleveland to stay hot. The Mariners' offense has been surprisingly strong thus far, but cooled off considerably over the weekend. Sunday saw them get held to just three hits. Now they are set to face one of the top pitching staffs in all of baseball, starting w/ Trevor Bauer on Monday. While winless over his L5 starts, Bauer has turned in a quality outing four times during that stretch. He was a bit unlucky to give up three runs on just four hits against Texas on Wednesday, though the team still ultimately prevailed by a score of 5-4. Bauer did not face Seattle when the two teams faced off in a three-get set in Cleveland earlier this year. I'd say he's "due" for a win. Seattle pitching has not been good of late w/ an 8.56 ERA the L5 games and opponents are batting .376. Cleveland comes in averaging 6.0 rpg during its win streak while batting a collective .294. It will be James Paxton going for the home team tonight and his first start of 2016 was a disaster as he was responsible for giving up eight runs in just 3 2/3 IP Wednesday vs. San Diego. Keep in mind that was at an NL park (meaning he gets to face the pitcher) and one of the weakest hitting lineups in all of baseball. The Indians lineup presents a far greater challenge to Paxton and I simply like the road team a lot more in tonight's series opener. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
06-05-16 | Giants v. Cardinals -141 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* 1st 5 Innings Play St. Louis (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a 1st 5 Innings play only, meaning that we only need the Cardinals to be ahead after the fifth. A play such is this is obviously heavily based on starting pitching and looking over this series as a whole, this is the one starting pitching matchup slanted in favor of the home team. St. Louis sends Carlos Martinez to the bump and while he's struggled at times this year, he is coming off perhaps his most effective outing to date. The same could possibly be said for the San Francisco's Jake Peavy, but his struggles run deeper and I see the Cards being up at the mid-way point of this game. One must also look at whom Peavy has faced in his last two starts to see why he's improved. Against Atlanta and San Diego, two of the worst hitting teams in all of baseball, he looked good but he still has the highest ERA (6.34) and WHIP (1.572) on the Giants staff. Those numbers predictably get even worse on the road. St. Louis is the National League's highest scoring team and hits righties way better than they do lefties w/ their team batting average about 30 points higher against the former. For the Giants, the opposite is true as they hit lefties far better than they do righties. The difference is about 30 points as well. Martinez tossed eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball at Milwaukee on Monday and should be well rested here w/ five full days off between starts. It's pretty shocking to see the Redbirds w/ a losing home record as they've outscored opponents here over the course of the season, plus they are outscoring opponents by nearly a full run per game in all games! Playing the game only for the first five innings nullifies what has been - at times - a suspect St. Louis bullpen. 8* 1st 5 Innings Play St. Louis | |||||||
06-05-16 | Mets v. Marlins -151 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:10 ET): I've stated my issues w/ the Marlins in the past (-17 run differential despite winning record) and even went against them in the opener of this three-game set. Not only did they lose that game (good for me), but they fell yday as well, after blowing a lead late. But if you see the Fish favored over the Mets, that must mean that Jose Fernandez is pitching, which is a very big deal. Not only is Fernandez 22-1 in 32 all-time home starts, he's gone a perfect 6-0 his L6 starts overall, turning in a 1.38 ERA. The team has actually won his last seven starts overall. He'll be opposed here by the struggling Matt Harvey, who may have looked good his last time out, but still has a 6.00 ERA and 1.636 WHIP on the road. Miami had been 28-4 this season when leading or tied after seven innings. That was before yday when the bullpen allowed the Mets to score a total of four times in the eighth and ninth innings, resulting in a 6-4 final. Of course, with Fernandez on the bump, there's a really good chance that the Marlins will be up again early in this one. Their ace has posted a 0.90 ERA and 0.75 WHIP his L3 starts, including seven shutout innings of three-hit ball vs. the Pirates (one of the NL's top hitting teams) his last time out. He needed only 88 pitches, his fewest in any outing all year. Over his L5 starts, Fernandez has allowed a total of just three runs and has 49 strikeouts in 34 innings! He's had the Mets' number throughout his career as well w/ 1.67 ERA in five starts, never allowing more two runs in any one starts. Quite simply, there's a lot to like about Fernandez here. Fernandez will also benefit from the fact that the Mets lineup is dealing with so many injuries right now that they actually had to send pitcher Jacob deGrom to the plate last night as a pinch-hitter. Also, I'm not convinced that Harvey has "turned things around" based on one quality start, which came against an AL opponent at home. He'd allowed 5+ ER in each of his previous three outings. Look for Miami to avoid the sweep here as they atone for yday's tough loss. The value of Fernandez simply cannot be understated. 8* Miami | |||||||
06-04-16 | Nationals -150 v. Reds | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
6* Washington (4:05 ET): Considering the two teams involved here and who is on the mound for the favorite, this price is actually a bargain. Now, the Nationals did lose to the Reds yday, 7-2, but that only serves to help keep the price down here as I fully anticipate the Nats bouncing back w/ Stephen Strasburg on the mound. With the Cubs losing the last start made by Jake Arrieta, Strasburg now stands as the "king of the hill" in MLB w/ an 11-0 team start record to go along w/ his 2.69 ERA and 1.086 WHIP. The Reds, off a win, are a good bet to regress considering they still have MLB's worst run differential (-93). They've actually won three straight, which is shocking, but twice before have failed to win four in a row this season. Strasburg allowed just one run in six innings against St. Louis his last time out. Compared to his two previous outings, strikeout numbers were way down (only four after 21 in B2B starts vs. Mets). Those 4 K's actually tied a season-low. But in terms of striking out, the Reds lineup is in the top 10. The most important thing is that the Nats have won Strasburg's last 15 starts, going back to last September, and his 2.20 ERA since June 23, 2015 is topped by only Arrieta and the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw. With Strasburg on the hill, the Nats have outscored opponents 77-29 this year. The team had won four straight before yday's surprising loss. So again, I fully anticipate them bouncing back in this spot. Winning four straight is something the Reds have yet to do this year and w/ Dan Straily opposing Strasburg, achieving the feat here seems quite unlikely. Straily, who allowed five runs his last time out, walks far too many batters for my liking. Too often, he records outs via fly ball rather than ground ball, which is also a concern. The Reds have predictably dropped both games this season when they've been a home underdog of +175 or higher on the money line while the Nats are not only 3-1 as a road fave of -175 or higher, they're 11-3 in that price range the L3 seasons. 6* Washington | |||||||
06-04-16 | White Sox -140 v. Tigers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
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06-03-16 | Braves v. Dodgers -205 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
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06-03-16 | Rays -113 v. Twins | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
full analysis soon | |||||||
06-03-16 | A's v. Astros -147 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:10 ET): Oakland comes into this series having won five straight (longest active win streak in MLB!), but let's not give them too much credit as they're off a sweep of the lowly Twins - at home. Prior to this current win streak, the club had lost seven of eight. They still own the American League's second worst run differential at -42 (ahead of only Minnesota), so this is hardly an opponent worth fearing, even at this price. Houston has been a massive disappointment so far, but at least got its last series over early yday (lost 3-0 to Arizona) and gets to stay at home this weekend. They're a perfect 2-0 off a shutout loss so far in 2016 and I expect them to run that record to 3-0 after tonight. The A's have not been a good read team so far this year, dropping 13 of their last 18 away from home. Starting pitching has been the main source of blame during that downfall w/ the rotation posting an 8.42 ERA. True to form, tonight's starter (Jesse Hahn) has made one road start and it did not go very well. He allowed five runs in 5 1/3 IP while walking four batters in a 5-2 loss to Baltimore. As a team, Oakland has lost four of its last five games here in Houston. They're allowing a ghastly 6.0 rpg on the road for the year as well. When these teams met earlier this season, in Oakland, it was the A's taking two of three. But the one pitcher who won for the Astros in that series is on the bump again tonight, that being Doug Fister, who held the A's to just one run over 6 2/3 innings back on May 1st. Fister is coming off an outstanding May overall as the team won all six of his starts w/ him posting a 2.84 ERA. Houston had its own five-game win streak snapped yday and what's impressive about theirs is that all the wins came on the road. This team is due to turn things around (still five games below .500, especially here at home, and they've got the better run differential ("only" -24) compared to the A's, which should tell you something right there. 8* Houston | |||||||
06-03-16 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -171 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -171 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
full analysis soon | |||||||
06-03-16 | Mets -180 v. Marlins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
7* NY Mets (7:10 ET): When looking over the daily MLB card, I'm always drawn to pitchers whose numbers indicate they are deserving of a better team start record. One such starter for Friday is the Mets' Noah Syndergaard, who despite a 1.87 ERA and 0.973 WHIP has seen his team win only six of the 10 times he's taken the mound in 2016. Lately though, Syndergaard has really been making it difficult for opposing hitters as he checks in w/ an 0.00 ERA and 0.793 WHIP his L3 starts! The Mets still found a way to lose one of those games, that being the last one as Syndergaard was ejected in the second inning. But I think the Marlins, a team he dominated earlier this year, are in trouble tonight as they had to play yday while the Mets did not. Back on April 12th, Syndergaard held the Marlins to just one run over seven innings and finished w/ 12 strikeouts. That type of performance is pretty indicative of what we've seen from Syndergaard all year long. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in 8 of his 10 starts overall and having thrown a total of just 51 pitches since May 22nd, he should be in top form again tonight. After the ejection last Saturday, we saw Syndergaard come on as a reliever for the first time in his career, Tuesday vs. the White Sox, and there he struck out two of the three batters he faced while consistently hitting 100 mph on the radar gun. Earlier, I mentioned the day off and that's key; the Mets are a perfect 6-0 this season if they didn't play the previous day. Now, the Mets do need to score. That's been a problem of late as their offense has averaged just 2.4 rpg its last seven contests while batting a collective .194. In four of the last five games, they've been held to two runs or fewer. But facing Tom Koehler has always seemed to go well for them. Miami's starter for Friday night posted an 8.22 ERA in five starts vs. the Mets last season and is just 2-5 in 14 career starts against them. Control issues have plagued Koehler this season as he has nearly as many walks (22) as he does strikeouts (24) in his L5 starts. Coming off three straight wins over the Pirates, the Marlins might be feeling pretty good about themselves right now, but this is a bad matchup for them. 7* NY Mets | |||||||
06-03-16 | Royals v. Indians -165 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): I was on the Indians last night and though it was looking "dicey" there for awhile, they did come through for me in the end, winning in walk off fashion. As I said in the analysis yday, this is a really big series for Cleveland, who can pull ahead of the first place Royals w/ a sweep here at Progressive Field. They are the better team in the AL Central, at least for my money, and run differential backs me up here as the Tribe are +28 in that department for the season while KC is just +9. Similar to yday, I see a big-time pitching edge being in favor of the home team here. I'm on the Tribe for a second straight game. Danny Salazar may have only a 5-5 team start record, but he's pitched well. He has a 2.39 ERA and 1.144 WHIP in 10 starts and at home he's been at his best w/ a 1.61 ERA and 0.893 WHIP. Only one time all season has Salazar allowed more than 3 ER in an outing and that was on the road against Boston, who has the best offense (by far) in all of baseball. He rebounded his last time out w/ a quality start vs. Baltimore, giving up only two runs in six innings. In three career meetings vs. Kansas City, Salazar has posted a 1.35 ERA, so he has a strong history against this opponent. Remember that the Royals are currently w/o three key hitters - Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas - in their lineup. As was the case w/ Yordano Ventura on Thursday, the Royals starter for Friday has overachieved this year as well. Edinson Volquez has a 7-3 TSR, but both his ERA and WHIP are clearly inferior to those of his counterpart Salazar, so again we see how misleading a pitcher's won-loss record can be. On the road is where Volquez has struggled the most as his ERA is 6.95 and his WHIP is 1.909 in four starts. Regardless of the location, whether it be here in Cleveland or at Kauffman Stadium, Volquez hasn't fared well against the Indians (8.31 ERA in eight career starts). He's allowed 11 home runs in those eight outings while going just 2-5. He allowed five runs (in just 4 1/3 IP) to them earlier this year, in what ended up being a 5-4 loss. By the way, in that same series, Salazar blanked the Royals for 7 2/3 innings in what ended up being a 7-1 win (for Cleveland). More of the same here. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
06-03-16 | Angels v. Pirates -158 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -158 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
full analysis soon | |||||||
06-02-16 | Reds v. Rockies -188 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -188 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
6* Colorado (8:40 ET): I've had my "finger on the pulse" of this series as not only did I cash the Rockies on Tuesday, but I had the Under yday (Reds won 7-2). As I said in my analysis Tuesday, betting against Cincinnati when they're off a win is probably a good idea. Not only does this team have - by far - the worst run differential in all of MLB (-105), but they haven't posted B2B wins in nearly a month. They'll also be sending the struggling Alfredo Simon to the mound. He has an ERA of 11.48 and a WHIP of 2.401 his last three starts. Pitching at Coors Field, it's unlikely he'll turn into Cy Young overnight. | |||||||
06-02-16 | Royals v. Indians -156 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
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06-01-16 | Nationals -215 v. Phillies | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
5* Washington (7:05 ET): I simply have little regard for an overachieving Phillies team that should feel incredibly fortunate to even be at .500 right now. Their YTD run differential is -48 and based solely on that, you would expect them to be 14 games BELOW .500! No team has "overachieved" more to this point and the key for the Phils has been a MLB-best 14-5 record in one-run games. Keep in mind that run differential is currently fifth worst in all of baseball! Signs of regression have already begun to set in as they've now lost five in a row after falling yday here at home, 5-1 at home to the Nationals, who I expect to finish off the three-game sweep tonight. Max Scherzer gives his team a big advantage in this series finale. Scherzer has been a little unlucky thus far. You can tell that by the fact he has a 4.05 ERA, but a 1.091 WHIP. His last start was emblematic of that discrepancy as he only allowed three hits in seven innings, but still gave up five runs. There were some atypical control issues (four walks), but consider that in his previous three starts Scherzer had posted 38-3 KW ratio. His WHIP over his L3 starts is 0.891. He has also dominated Philadelphia throughout his career, going 5-0 w/ a 1.65 ERA against them since his rookie season. In four starts here in Philly, he's allowed just four runs in 21 IP and has 22 K's. Walks and home runs have hurt Scherzer this year, but fortunately for him the Phils have hit only 13 HR's at home this year and are baseball's lowest scoring team at home overall (2.8 rpg). It also helps that the beleaguered Adam Morgan will be starting opposite him. Take away two starts vs. Atlanta and Morgan has a 10.26 ERA this year w/ 27 hits allowed in just 16 2/3 innings. Last time out, he gave up six runs in just four innings vs. the Cubs. He now has a 9.88 ERA and 1.902 WHIP his L3 starts overall. The Phillies are "due" to keep regressing as they are one of the worst teams in baseball, no matter what the record says. 5* Washington | |||||||
06-01-16 | White Sox v. Mets -146 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -146 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
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05-31-16 | Reds v. Rockies -170 | Top | 4-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
8* Colorado (8:40 ET): This battle of NL also-rans is unlikely to attract much attention, but I anticipate the Rockies will be able to bounce back from an 11-8 loss yday to the lowly Reds. Colorado isn't a team that I endorse often, but as the odds show, this is a game and series they theoretically should dominate. Now with Cincinnati off a win, it's a good time to play against as they are just 6-10 in that role this season, not to mention 5-19 on the road. The Reds - by far - have the worst run differential in all of baseball (-97) and I just can't see them making it two in a row here. The Reds' typically weak-hitting lineup took advantage of the thin air here at Coors Field and hit a season-high five home runs yesterday as they erased an early 5-1 deficit. Their 17 hits in the game also marked a season-high. Interestingly, Colorado's pitching staff had previously allowed the fewest number of home runs in all of baseball in the month of May (just 15). Maybe it was the early start time that was beneficial to Cincy as they are just 6-28 in night games. Regardless, regression should be in the works tonight as Rockies starter Jon Gray has actually been really sharp in four of his last five starts, including his last one where he allowed just two runs and five hits (in 7 1/3 IP) against one of the best offenses in all of baseball (Boston). Cincinnati will be going with Jon Moscot, who is making his return from a month long stint on the DL. The team lost all three of his starts in April w/ him posting a 4.02 ERA and 1.404 WHIP. I earlier mentioned the Reds' struggles on the road and the current price range has been really unfriendly as they are winless (0-7) this season when in the +150 to +175 range on the money line. Furthermore, never discount just how truly awful the Reds' bullpen can be as they have a 7.04 ERA and 1.860 WHIP on the road this year. 8* Colorado | |||||||
05-31-16 | Rangers v. Indians -163 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -163 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (6:10 ET): I am not the least bit surprised that in his two starts, Corey Kluber has beaten both the Red Sox (current AL East leaders) and White Sox (at the time AL Central leaders) on the road. The 2014 Cy Young winner was certainly "due" for things to start going his way after an incomprehensible 14-27 team start record since the start of last season. In those last two starts, Kluber allowed just four runs (one unearned) in 14 1/3 IP. The team might still be only 4-6 w/ him on the mound this year, but I'll look for Kluber to inch closer to the .500 mark after tonight as I look for the Indians to beat the Rangers, avenging last night's poor showing. It was a 9-2 Texas win yday as the previously unbeaten Josh Tomlin suffered his first loss of the season for Cleveland. Tomlin simply "didn't have it" as it was 9-0 Rangers after the fourth inning. It certainly didn't help matters that the team was charged w/ four errors either. This team's fielding had improved rather dramatically over the course of the last year (can be traced back to the call-up of Francisco Lindor), so that was probably just a blip (three of the errors came from 3B Juan Uribe) and Kluber will give us a better start than Tomlin did. In two career starts vs. Texas, Kluber has posted a 2.57 ERA. Yesterday we saw one pitcher fall from the ranks of the unbeaten (Tomlin) and today I suspect the same will happen with the Rangers' Colby Lewis. Lewis might be 4-0, but his team start record is 6-4 and he's coming off his worst outing of the year, one where he allowed six runs in just five innings vs. the Angels. Fortunately, the offense was able to bail him out in what ended up being a 15-9 Rangers' win, but if past history is any indication, then Lewis is probably going to need a ton of help again tonight as he has not fared well in the past here at Progressive Field where his ERA is 11.74. The Texas offense though, save for last night, simply isn't as prolific on the road as it is at home. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
05-31-16 | Padres v. Mariners -167 | Top | 4-16 | Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
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05-30-16 | Rangers v. Indians -142 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -142 | 6 h 21 m | Show |
full analysis soon | |||||||
05-29-16 | Giants -150 v. Rockies | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): There's no doubt in my mind as to who has the pitching edge in this rubber match. It's the far better team to begin with - the Giants - who will be sending Johnny Cueto to the bump this afternoon at Coors Field. San Francisco scored 10 runs yesterday, the eighth time already this season that the Rockies have given up that many and with the struggling Chris Rusin going for them, there's a chance that number could go up to nine. The Giants are a perfect 6-0 this season as a road favorite of -150 to -175. Cueto has simply been one of the best pitchers in baseball thus far. He has a 9-1 team start record, 2.38 ERA and 0.991 WHIP. His one and only loss came over a month ago and the team is a perfect 6-0 his L6 starts. Lately, he's only gotten better w/ B2B complete game efforts against San Diego and last time out he didn't even allow a single run while giving up just two hits. He also didn't allow any runs when he faced Colorado on May 7th. There, he went 8 1/3 innings as the Giants won 2-1. Cueto now has a 19-inning scoreless streak against Colorado. Even at Coors, he's been just fine. Since the last time he faced the Rockies, his ERA is a miniscule 0.81. Then, you have Chris Rusin, who has a 7.31 ERA and 2.187 WHIP his last three starts. That includes allowing a career-worst 13 hits against the Giants on May 5th, a start where he was bailed out big-time by the offense, who scored 17 runs that game. Nothing even close will happen today vs. Cueto, but don't be surprised if the Giants offense puts a similar number on the board today as Buster Posey is 5 for 11 lifetime vs. Rusin and is a .385 lifetime hitter here in Denver w/ 11 HR's. Visitors are averaging 6.9 rpg while batting above .300 here at Coors Field this season. 8* San Francisco | |||||||
05-29-16 | Cardinals v. Nationals -176 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 48 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:35 ET): After taking the opener of this four-game set (2-1), the Nationals have dropped B2B games to the Cardinals as their offense continues to struggle. They've put only eight runs on the board this entire series, but fortunately they won't need many today with Stephen Strasburg on the bump. Tied w/ the Cubs' Jake Arrieta for the best team start record in all of baseball (perfect 10-0), Strasburg has a 2.79 ERA and 1.064 WHIP, not to mention 21 K's his L2 starts. He provides his team a clear advantage today over St. Louis, who must turn to the struggling Michael Wacha. Wacha's last three starts have all been pretty bad. He's lasted only four innings in every time and in the process has allowed 32 runners to reach base and 22 of them to score! That's a 12.00 ERA and 2.667 WHIP, if you're keeping score at home. He comes off what was arguably a career-worst effort where he allowed eight runs in a 12-3 loss to the Cubs on Tuesday, in the process becoming the first Cardinals' pitcher since '07 to lose five straight decisions. Meanwhile, the last time the Nats lost w/ Strasburg on the bump was September 9th. The only two pitchers in baseball w/ a better ERA since June of last year are Arrieta and Clayton Kershaw. Of course, it helps that the offense has averaged 6.7 runs in his 10 starts this year. When he faced St. Louis exactly one month ago, Strasburg held them to just two runs across seven innings. He also finished w/ nine strikeouts. It's clearly a big-time pitching mismatch in this one and the Nats are 24-10 L34 when a home favorite of -175 to -200 on the money line. 8* Washington | |||||||
05-28-16 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -185 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
5* Arizona (10:10 ET): When the D'backs shelled out all that money in the offseason for Zack Greinke, I don't think they were envisioning a 4.59 ERA and 1.314 WHIP after 10 starts. Always a dominant pitcher at home throughout his career, Greinke has really struggled to adapt to the more hitter friendly confines of Chase Field in Arizona, but tonight along comes a familiar foe in the form of San Diego and one that he should clearly be able to dominate. There are some pretty clear signs that Greinke is turning things around. He's allowed 2 ER or fewer in five of his last eight starts and his last time out saw him hold one of the game's better offenses to just one run and five hits over eight innings. Earlier this year, he held San Diego to just two runs and six hits in 7+ innings and the team got the 3-2 win. In 13 career starts vs. the Padres, Greinke is 6-1 w/ a 1.64 ERA. Remember that no team has been shut out more times this season than have the Padres. Poor starting pitching has burned in Arizona in recent days, but Greinke should change that here. Meanwhile, starting for San Diego here will be Cesar Vargas, who has a 5.02 ERA and 1.954 WHIP in three road starts so far. He hasn't won any of them and in fact is still looking for his first career big league victory overall! He's off his longest outing ever, which could be a problem, and the Padres are just 7-11 off a win this season. Arizona has typically done a great job at bouncing back from a loss like yday as they are 4-1 this season following a game where they allowed 10 or more runs. 5* Arizona | |||||||
05-28-16 | Pirates v. Rangers -122 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
8* Texas (7:15 ET): Pittsburgh has now won five in a row after last night's 9-1 victory here in Arlington. But nevertheless, I'll "buck" them here as the Rangers will be sending Yu Darvish to the mound for the first time in 2016. This will be the first time Darvish has started a game in 22 month, but I don't think he's forgotten how to pitch. That's confirmed by five rehab starts - spread out across Double A & Triple A where posted a 0.90 ERA w/ 21 K's and six walks. Pitching for the Pirates here will be Juan Nicasio and his recent results have not been good. Opponents have hit .333 off him this month while his ERA is 6.46. Remember that he worked almost entirely as a reliever last season, so he'll be limited by a pitch count here as well and in fact his last turn was skipped in the rotation. The last time we saw him in a full outing, he did not look good at all. He allowed five runs in five innings and that was against Atlanta, the lowest scoring team in all of baseball. He was quite fortunate that his offense bailed him out in that one. He won't be as fortunate here. When a home team is blown out like the Rangers were on Friday, they typically come back strong the following day. Texas has a winning record off a loss this year and is a strong 16-9 overall at home, including 4-1 as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. A big key is that their offense averages 5.3 rpg here, so look for a bounce back at the plate after scoring only one run yday. Facing the struggling Nicasio helps as well. 8* Texas | |||||||
05-27-16 | Cardinals v. Nationals -160 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): It's looking more and more like this simply isn't "the Cardinals year." Yes, they have the impressive run differential (+40), but they continue to hover right around .500 (24-24) as they lost yday here in the Nation's capital. The final score was 2-1 as the club fell to 3-7 in one-run games this season. Normally, I might make a move to call for their luck to turn, but the news keeps going from bad to worse w/ this team as yday saw their hottest hitter leave the game w/ back stiffness. Matt Adams was hitting .383 w/ a .700 slugging percentage since April 28th, so this would potentially be a major loss for a lineup that's already w/o home run and RBI leader Matt Carpenter (paternity list). Washington is 4-0 this season vs. St. Louis. Make it 5-0 after tonight. The Nats can now run out Max Scherzer, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Strasburg in successive days, so the rest of this series is not looking good for the Cardinals. St. Louis has scored just three runs in their last three games vs. Washington! Scherzer was responsible for one of those efforts, tossing seven shutout innings of four-hit ball against the Redbirds back on May 1st. He followed that up w/ a somewhat disastrous outing vs. the Cubs, but since then has posted an outstanding 0.772 WHIP over the course of three starts w/ a 38-3 KW ratio. He has a 2.70 ERA in five career starts vs. St. Louis. On the other hand, we have Cardinals' starter Jaime Garcia, who was beat up for five runs and 10 hits in just 2 1/3 innings his last time out. That was at home against Arizona. He didn't fare too well against Washington at Busch Stadium either as he took a 6-1 loss there back on April 30th after allowing four runs in 6 1/3 IP. This is a pitcher with more walks (5) than strikeouts (3) his L2 starts. That's never a good sign obviously. Nor is the fact that Bryce Harper may be on his way to fighting out of a prolonged slump as he was the one who hit the GW HR Thursday. The Nationals are 6-1 this season as home favorites of -150 to -175 and 35-19 in that same price range the L3 years. 8* Washington | |||||||
05-26-16 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates -179 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
6* Pittsburgh (12:35 ET): The D'backs and Pirates wrap up a three-game set here at PNC Park Thursday afternoon and I can't see this one going any differently from the first two, which were both won by the home team. After destroying Arizona 12-1 on Tuesday, it was closer affair last night, but still a win (5-4) for Pittsburgh nonetheless. The Bucs, who have won 8 of their last 10 overall, are simply the better team here. They are 26-19 w/ a +20 run differential compared to 21-27 w/ a -16 run diff for Arizona. It's been nine wins in 11 tries for Pittsburgh over the L2 seasons vs. Arizona and they have a clear pitching edge this afternoon. Gerritt Cole comes in having gone 3-0 w/ a 1.29 ERA his L3 starts overall. The Pirates ace had an interesting outing his last time out, as he allowed 10 hits over 7 IP and didn't strike anybody out, but allowed just one run (on a solo HR). Stll, 72 of his 109 pitches went for strikes. That followed eight shutout innings of three-hit ball against the Cubs at Wrigley Field on May 15th. So, after a bit of a rocky start to the season, clearly Cole seems to have regained LY's form and he has a 3.10 ERA in four career starts vs. the D'backs. As for the strikeouts, we've seen w/ the White Sox Chris Sale this year, that they sometimes can be an overrated statistic. The Pirates have outhit the D'backs 27-15 in the two games en route to outscoring them 17-5. While he's been worse at home compared to on the road, Arizona starter Pat Corbin can't be too happy about facing Pittsburgh yet again. Last month, he gave up four runs in 6 IP as he took an 8-2 loss at Chase Field. The team has won just four of Corbin's nine starts here and overlooked is that the Pirates are among MLB's best offenses right now as they rank 4th in runs scored, 2nd in team batting average and 2nd in OBP. More often than not, "Getaway Day" favors the home team and that should certainly be the case here today. 6* Pittsburgh | |||||||
05-25-16 | A's v. Mariners -173 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
8* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners pulled the proverbial "rabbit out of the hat" last night, coming back from a 5-2 deficit to win in walk-off fashion. They scored two runs in both the eighth and ninth innings and now find themselves in an excellent position to take this series from division rival Oakland, who has really been struggling of late. Yes, I did take the A's in Monday's series opener (they won 5-0!), but that is their only win over the last six games and the trend that had seen the road team go 7-0 in A's/M's game this year finally came to an end last night as it was "due" to do. Though no one is really talking about them much, Seattle has been a really good team this year (+44 run diff is #4 in all of MLB). Go w/ them here. Hisashi Iwakuma is by no means having a great year for the Mariners. But he dominated this A's lineup when he faced them in Oakland on May 3rd. There he allowed only one run on four hits over seven innings of work. That's been par for the course as in his L3 starts vs. Oakland, Iwakuma is 2-0 w/ a 1.33 ERA. It's not like the A's lineup comes into tonight in "peak form" either as over the last seven days they are batting a collective .220. They've gone six straight games w/o scoring more than five runs. Iwakuma is off a quality start, by the way, as he allowed just three runs and six hits over 6 IP at Cincinnati (Seattle won 8-3). For Oakland, the rotation now has a major hole in it w/ Sonny Gray going to the disabled list. Granted, Gray wasn't pitching well, but I'm not sure fill-in Zach Neal can be counted upon here as he allowed three runs in his big league debut May 11th as a reliever. Behind Neal is a pretty terrible bullpen, one that has a 4.06 ERA and has allowed at least one run in four of its past six games. 8* Seattle | |||||||
05-25-16 | Brewers -113 v. Braves | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:10 ET): Very little was expected from either of these two clubs in 2016 and in that regard, neither has "disappointed." But while the Brew Crew may not be the most tantalizing "take" on the board on a nightly basis, the Braves have been a special kind of brutal this season, particularly at Turner Field where they've gone a mind-numbing 2-18 to this point. That includes a 2-1 loss here in yday's series opener, a game which featured very little hitting. Thus, with neither lineup in "peak form," this one likely comes down to the starting pitching matchup and in that regard, it's a big edge for the Brewers w/ Junior Guerra on the mound. It's nice to not have to lay a lot of juice against the hapless Braves. | |||||||
05-25-16 | Cubs -159 v. Cardinals | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (1:45 ET): The Cubs ended their longest losing streak of the season (three games) yday, in emphatic fashion, via a 12-3 win here in St. Louis. Of course, even if they had lost, there's a very good chance that said losing streak would have ended here at four games because it's once again time for Jake Arrieta to toe the rubber. Obviously though, you like to see the club coming into this afternoon's series finale in top form as it was basically "over from the start" on Tuesday w/ the Cubs scoring six runs in the top of the 1st and never looking back after that. Similar routs have been routine w/ Arrieta pitching this year as the team has outscored opponents by a stunning 72-14 margin in his nine starts, which accounts for basically half of their MLB-best +118 run differential. I expect nothing less than a stellar outing from Arrieta here (why wouldn't I?) and another dominant Cubs victory. St. Louis is actually top five in the league in run differential, but that number took a big hit w/ yday's loss. It figures to take another hit today w/ Carlos Martinez on the bump. When pitching opposite Arrieta, the margin for error is obviously so slim, but lately Martinez has not demonstrated that he would even be up to the challenge here. Over his last three starts, Martinez has a 6.08 ERA and 1.80 WHIP and those kind of numbers basically guarantee defeat going against Arrieta. Worse yet, he hasn't made it past the fifth inning in any of those last three starts. The team has lost each of the last four times he's taken the mound w/ him giving up more runs in that time frame that Arrieta has all year. It's been a very long time since we've seen a pitcher perform as well as Arrieta has over such a sustained period. The Cubs have won his last 22 regular season starts w/ Arrieta going 19-0 w/ a 0.86 ERA. This year, he is 8-0 in his nine starts, producing a 1.29 ERA and 0.841 WHIP. Four different times, he hasn't allowed a single run, including his no-hitter back on April 21st. He's gone 29 consecutive starts w/o allowing more than 3 ER! At this price, Arrieta is simply too good to pass up. 8* Chi Cubs | |||||||
05-24-16 | Indians v. White Sox -172 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -172 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
6* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Yes, Chris Sale is pitching and that means a high price on the White Sox, but it's totally justifiable here considering his perfect 9-0 record, 1.58 ERA and 0.717 WHIP. I played Sale his last time out as well and he responded by going the distance again (third time this season), allowing only one run on four hits against Houston. It was the second consecutive start he turned in a complete game w/o walking a single batter (15-0 KW ratio). Tonight, he'll be opposed by another unbeaten pitcher - Josh Tomlin - but his ERA over his L3 starts (4.05) indicates a bit of a decline, plus unlike Sale, Tomlin has not actually won every start (6-0 in seven outings). I'm siding with the better pitcher at home here. These teams played a doubleheader yesterday and ended up splitting the games while Chicago winning Game 1 and Cleveland taking Game 2. The Indians can no longer catch the White Sox for first place in the division by series' end (2.5 games back) and weren't likely to anyway as they knew they'd be facing Sale on Tuesday. They did score three times against Sale here at US Cellular Field back on April 9th, but since that time Sale hasn't allowed more than 2 ER in any start and has given up one or zero six times. He has a WHIP of 0.56 his L3 starts due to only putting on 14 baserunners in 26 IP. Tomlin has benefited greatly from run support his last five outings and while the Indians have averaged nearly seven full runs per game over their last nine contests, they'll be lucky if they even get to half of that average here tonight. Consider that three times this year Tomlin has allowed at least four runs, meaning in three starts he's allowed nearly as many runs as Sale has given up all season! Betting against Sale right now is simply a foolish proposition. 6* Chi White Sox | |||||||
05-23-16 | Padres v. Giants -170 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (10:15 ET): For Seattle-Oakland, there was a 6-0 trend in favor of the road team. Over here in the NL, there's a much different 6-0 trend in play for San Diego-San Francisco. The Giants are 6-0 vs. their division rival this year and I don't see them losing for a first time tonight as Johnny Cueto will be on the hill and the team is red hot overall (10-1 L11). Normally, I might cite a team coming off the Sunday night game as being at a disadvantage, but that's clearly been mitigated here as the Padres went 17 innings Sunday (and lost). Look for this division rivalry to remain one-sided. Cueto has been outstanding for the Giants so far. He's 6-1 w/ a 2.70 ERA and 1.095 WHIP and has only gotten hotter of late. This will be his second straight outing against San Diego and last week saw him deliver a complete game at Petco Park while allowing just four hits. That was his second CG this year against the Padres and the one here at AT&T Park was even more dominant as it was a shutout w/ 11 strikeouts. Cueto has now gone at least eight innings w/ allowing one or no runs three times in his last five starts overall. He's 6-1 w/ a 1.67 ERA and 54 K's his last seven starts vs. the Padres. Drew Pomeranz will once again oppose Cueto tonight and I'll concede to you that he's been an unlucky pitcher of late. In his last four starts, the offense has scored a grand total of four runs for him. Then again, that can't be too surprising considering San Diego is 29th in slugging, 30th in OBP and 30th in team batting average. Still though, it's sad to see a pitcher go only 2-2 over a four-start stretch where his ERA is 1.13. But the real problem for Pomeranz and the Padres in this situation is that the team's bullpen was taxed yday (six relievers used) and Pomeranz has gone seven innings in only one of his eight starts this year. I just don't see the road team having a lot in the tank tonight and that's a problem against a red hot pitcher and red hot team in general. 8* San Francisco. | |||||||
05-23-16 | A's +116 v. Mariners | Top | 5-0 | Win | 116 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
9* Oakland (10:10 ET): Very different weekends for these two AL West teams. Oakland was swept at home by the Yankees, while Seattle swept the Reds in Cincinnati. However, if that and history is any indication, then homefield is no advantage in this series. Six times these teams have met this year. The road team has won every time! The Mariners have not been a good home team period this year, going 8-10 at Safeco Field while hitting a collective .218. They scored just four runs when they were swept here by the A's back in April. The pitching edge lies with Oakland for tonight's series opener. They have Rich Hill going. Since allowing four runs (two unearned) in his first start of 2016, he has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any of his last eight. He's allowed 2 ER in five of his last six. When he pitched here in Seattle back on April 9th, he allowed just one run and five hits in six innings of work. He also finished w/ 10 strikeouts. Over his L3 starts overall, Hill has a 3-0 team start record and a 0.967 WHIP. He's also 5-0 in five road starts w/ a 1.76 ERA and 0.978 WHIP. Meanwhile, Seattle's Taijuan Walker has been trending in much different direction. He has gone 0-3 w/ a 5.09 ERA over his last four starts. He was by no means terrible when he faced Oakland in his first start of the year as he allowed only two runs in six innings. But he did give up seven hits, one of them a home run. The long ball has been a problem for Walker of late w/ five allowed in his last three starts. The bottom line is that the Mariners come into this series overvalued off a sweep of a terrible team. The opposite can be said for Oakland, who is in a "buy low" situation after losing four straight at home. 9* Oakland | |||||||
05-23-16 | Mets v. Nationals -142 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -142 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): The Nationals took two of three from the Mets last week. They followed that up by taking two of three from the Marlins over the weekend and now have a 1.5 game edge over New York, who is off a sweep of Milwaukee. However, while relatively close in the standings, run differential is solidly in favor of the Nats (+56 to +26) and I give them a big edge in tonight's series opener at home. Gio Gonzalez may not be the most heralded member of this starting rotation, but he has been outstanding nonetheless. He's allowed 1 ER or less in six of his eight starts overall. That includes a 7-1 win over the Mets last Wednesday when he went 6 1/3 innings and allowed just five hits. Once again opposing him will be Bartolo Colon here. I expect the result to be the same. Gonzalez has traditionally saved some of his best work for the Mets. He's 10-4 in 18 starts against them. Really, he has dominated all NL East opponents, going 7-1 w/ a 1.38 ERA in 15 starts and has never allowed more than 2 ER! Over the last four starts overall, two of which came against the Mets and Marlins, he's a perfect 4-0 w/ a 0.97 ERA. So, clearly, this is a pitcher is in top form right now. Colon, meanwhile, has a 6.06 ERA and 1.469 WHIP his L3 starts. He lasted only 4 2/3 innings opposite Gonzalez and gave up three runs while walking five batters. He allowed five runs, including a pair of homers in five innings of work his start before that, which was against the Dodgers. The Mets offense is really struggling now. Though they swept Milwaukee over the weekend, it was hardly dominant. Two of the wins were by one-run and they didn't score more than five runs in any game. They've now gone 14 consecutive games w/o scoring more than five runs. The Nats, on the other hand, are 4-1 in their last five games and have outscored opponents 28-5 in the four wins. The only loss was a one-run game. This price range suggests that Washington is in good shape as they are a perfect 5-0 as a home favorite of -150 to -175. 8* Washington | |||||||
05-22-16 | Cubs v. Giants -121 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (8:05 ET): The Cubs have slowed down rather considerably over their L10 games, going just 4-6. Two of those four wins came in games started by Jake Arrieta, including Friday's series opener here in San Francisco. But they lost last night, 5-3, and tonight represents a rare instance of them not being favored on the money line (just 5th time all season!) as the Giants are the hottest team in baseball right now and will have their ace Madison Bumgarner toeing the rubber. I believe that I've yet to play against the Cubs in 2016, but that changes on Sunday Night Baseball. Take the Giants. San Francisco has won 9 of their last 10 games. Having to go w/ Jake Peavy and Matt Cain in the first two games of this series seemed to put them at a distinct disadvantage and while the Peavy start went as expected (lost opposite Arrieta), Cain was able to turn in six really solid innings last night where he gave up just the one run. Tonight, the pitching matchup is finally in the Giants favor as Bumgarner has been red hot (1.69 ERA L6 starts) w/ the team winning the last five times he's taken the baseball. Last time out, Bumgarner went the distance and allowed just one run (on a solo HR) and five hits while striking out 11 and walking no one. He is 3-0 w/ a 1.95 ERA his L4 starts against the Cubs. Helping Bumgarner's cause even further is the fact that the Cubs have scored three runs or less in five of their last six games. There's a good chance that it will be six out of seven after tonight. Except for Friday, the Giants have not allowed more than three runs in any of their last nine games. This puts tremendous pressure on Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks, who is one of the weaker cogs in the starting rotation to begin with. The team is down 4.7 units w/ him on the mound this year and he has the rotation's second highest ERA and WHIP. His last two starts have resulted in losses to bottom feeders San Diego and Milwaukee, which is not a good sign when getting set to face a fellow division leader. This is one of the rare times when the Cubs absolutely should not be favored to win. 10* San Francisco | |||||||
05-22-16 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -124 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -124 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
10* St. Louis (2:10 ET): The Cardinals evened this series up at a game apiece w/ a 6-2 win Saturday. The key was hitting three home runs and starter Mike Leake gave them seven scoreless innings. Arizona didn't even score until the top of the ninth. For today's rubber match, it will Zack Greinke vs. Jaime Garcia. While Greinke may have the slightly better TSR (team start record) here (5-4 vs. 4-4), Garcia has pitched better according to both ERA (2.86 to 5.08) and WHIP (1.033 to 1.394). While Greinke has actually struggled more at his new home (Chase Field) than on the road, this is an offense that already lit him up once this year (7 runs and 11 hits). I'm on the Redbirds in today's rubber match. This has been a bit of a frustrating season for the Cardinals. They own MLB's third best run differential (+55), yet are just 23-20 and one-half game behind the Pirates, who are just +5. After going a perfect 7-0 vs. the D'backs last season (12-1 L2 years), they've only managed to split six games this year. But "true to form," they've outscored them by five runs in those six games and that's despite losing 12-7 when Garcia faced Greinke back on April 25th. I already talked about how Greinke really struggled that day. Garcia was by no means great (allowed four runs in 5 IP), but that's the most runs he's allowed in any start this year. Over his L3 starts, Garcia has posted a 1.42 ERA and 0.842 WHIP. Unless they are facing a lefty, St. Louis has had little problem scoring runs this year as they are second in runs scored. They are also fifth in team batting average, fourth in OBP and second in slugging. In just the last three games, they've scored 26 runs while batting a collective .308. This being a day game certainly seems to favor the home team as they are 9-5 this season in that situation (72-52 L3 seasons) while Arizona is 4-7 in day games this season (42-64 L3 seasons). Against lefties, the D'backs are just 4-7 (in 2016) and 38-54 the L3 seasons. Only four teams have allowed more runs than Arizona has (Minnesota, Oakland, Milwaukee and Cincinnati) this year. Greinke got away with allowing the seven runs the last time he saw this lineup; he won't be as fortunate today. 10* St. Louis | |||||||
05-22-16 | Nationals -132 v. Marlins | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:10 ET): Saturday, I was actually on Miami and they came through for me as Jose Fernandez improved to a remarkable 21-1 all-time at home. Fernandez obviously won't be pitching today, but Max Scherzer will, and thus "shifting sides" to the Nationals seems like the logical move. After his 20-strikeout performance on May 11th (vs. Detroit), Scherzer pitched well again on Tuesday, but the offense failed to score for him in a 2-0 loss. Incredibly, the only four runs allowed by Scherzer over those two starts have come via solo home runs. Assuming that issue is corrected, I see no reason why he can't mow down the Marlins here. His KW ratio in just the last two games is 30-3. Going into yday's game, Washington had won three straight and Miami had lost three straight. Obviously, the key there was Fernandez, who finished w/ 13 K's in six innings. However, the Marlins didn't actually take the lead until the bottom of the sixth and were fortunate to escape a bases loaded w/ no outs situation in the top of the ninth. Instead of facing Fernandez, here it will be Adam Conley, who struggled against the Nats earlier this year. He gave up four runs in a 7-0 loss, working 6 2/3 innings. While Conley got away w/ giving up just one run over six innings in his last start, he did allow eight hits and that was against a weak-hitting team vs. the Phillies. Washington is 5-1 vs. lefty starters this season. On the run suppression side of the ledger, the Nats have allowed a total of just eight runs their last five games. Miami has managed just four in the last two games and has not scored more than three in any of their last four. I expect Scherzer to keep that streak alive. As a home underdog of +150 or less (which they are here), the Marlins are only 1-7 this season. They are also just 4-8 in day games. While separated by only 3.5 games in the NL East, the respective run differentials tell a very different story with these two teams as the Nats are +50 for the year while the Marlins are actually -5. Fernandez himself was enough to justify a play on the home team yday, but w/o him on the mound, there is no denying that Washington is just the better team here. 8* Washington | |||||||
05-21-16 | Nationals v. Marlins -146 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
8* Miami (7:15 ET): If the Marlins are favored on the money line to beat the Nationals, it shouldn't be hard to guess who's pitching. That would be Jose Fernandez, of course, and he's at home where he's tasted defeat only one time in his entire career. That was all the way back in his first start of this season, but since then it's been almost all quality starts and he's gotten a lot of batters to swing and miss the last two times he's taken the mound. That includes facing these Nationals, as he finished w/ 11 K's in an easy 5-1 win in D.C. last Sunday. Once again, he'll be opposed by Joe Ross and I expect the result to be the same, if not even more lopsided. | |||||||
05-21-16 | Mariners -160 v. Reds | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
8* Seattle (4:10 ET): Needless to say, Interleague Play has not gone well for the Reds this week. After being swept by Cleveland in a four-game home & home series, the NL Central cellar-dwellers dropped another game last night, this one to the Mariners by a score of 8-3. Life gets no easier this afternoon as they must face off against Felix Hernandez, who has been his usual dominant self despite a 4-4 team start record. King Felix checks in w/ a 2.47 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in those eight starts and it's also important to remember here just how much better of a team Seattle is compared to Cincinnati. The first place M's are now 24-17 w/ a +43 run differential that's second best in the entire American League. Easy call this afternoon. Meanwhile, the Reds' 15-27 record is third worst in all of baseball (not a surprise) and their YTD -82 run differential (MLB's worst) indicates that they are every bit as awful as that record shows, if not worse. They've been outscored by 32 runs the L5 games alone and these struggles against American League teams are actually nothing new as they've now lost 32 of 45 IL games since the start of the 2014 season. Starting today for them will be Jeremy Lamb, who has a 5.79 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in three starts. He hasn't won any of them (0-1) nor has the team as his team start record is 0-3. Lamb gave up seven runs and 10 hits in just four innings against Cleveland on Monday. Hernandez had one bad start at Oakland on May 4th, but otherwise has allowed 3 ER or less in his other seven outings. After "only" striking out 17 batters in his previous five starts, it was nice to see him finish w/ 9 K's Sunday against the Angels. King Felix has simply loved pitching in NL parks throughout his career as he's gone 8-0 w/ a 1.44 ERA his last 10 (9-1 TSR). If for some reason, Seattle was to actually fall behind today, there's always the Reds bullpen that we can count on. That group has a 6.76 ERA (MLB worst!) and we saw yday how bad they can be. But falling behind isn't something I anticipate happening w/ Hernandez on the mound, plus the Mariners are now an outstanding 16-7 in road games this year. Outside of Safeco Field, they are 9-1 in the -150 to -175 range the L3 seasons, all of those games coming with Hernandez pitching. 8* Seattle | |||||||
05-20-16 | Cubs -185 v. Giants | Top | 8-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
6* Chi Cubs (10:15 ET): The Cubs have cooled off a bit in recent days, dropping three of four, including two to lowly Milwaukee in the last series. But it's time for Jake Arrieta to take the mound on Friday and you know what that means. The Cubs are very likely going to win. Actually, "very likely" might be putting it mildly as last year's Cy Young award winner has a perfect 21-0 team start record his last 21 regular season starts! Arrieta himself is 18-0 during that timespan (0.84 ERA!) and this year is 8-0 w/ a 0.839 WHIP. In those eight starts, the Cubs have outscored their opponents by a colossal 64-13. That basically accounts for half of the team's remarkable +106 run differential this year. It's a pretty easy decision on what to do here. Helping to drive up the value on Arrieta and the Cubs here is the fact that the Giants have won eight straight. But those back to back sweeps came against also-rans Arizona and San Diego and both series were on the road. Each of the team's last seven games have stayed Under the total due to a phenomenal run of pitching that has seen them allow just 10 runs - total! But even though Jake Peavy was a lot better his last time out, he still has a 7.43 ERA and 1.750 WHIP this year. It's a total mismatch here with him on the mound going against Arrieta. The Cubs are 8-1 off a loss this season, which obviously means they've dropped back to back games only one time all season. So they're a solid bet to bounce back after yesterday afternoon's surprising defeat. Also, it's worth noting that seven of the Cubs' 11 losses this season have come in the daytime. They are 17-4 in night games. This will be the third cheapest price available on Arrieta so far this season. 6* Chi Cubs | |||||||
05-20-16 | Brewers v. Mets -210 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
6* NY Mets (7:10 ET): Again, it's the "giant chasm" that I like to talk about when it comes to the National League this year that's present in this weekend series. It's also a good time to take advantage of recent results when it comes to the non-contending Brewers and the reigning Senior Circuit champion Mets. Milwaukee is probably feeling pretty good about itself after taking two of three from the Cubs (at home) to start the week. Meanwhile, the Mets have lost six of seven and were held to only four runs in their last series. But the oddsmakers aren't fooled and quite frankly neither am I. Expect this to be a bounce back weekend for the Metropolitans. | |||||||
05-20-16 | Rockies v. Pirates -210 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
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05-19-16 | Astros v. White Sox -187 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
6* Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Eventually, Chris Sale will lose a game this season, but don't bank on it happening tonight as he gets set to face the Astros. Now, the White Sox have dropped both games in this series so far and four in a row overall. But Sale is the ultimate stopper as he comes in w/ an 8-0 record in his eight starts, a 1.67 ERA and 0.758 WHIP. Last time out, he went out the distance, allowing just one run and six hits in a 7-1 win over the Yankees. The team has now outscored its opponents 31-5 in Sale's last four starts! The ace has allowed 1 ER or less in five of his last six starts and has held Houston in check throughout his career, posting a 47-4 KW ratio in 32 innings pitched. Look for the home team to avoid the sweep. Before these last four games, Chicago had been off to a fantastic start. They'd outscored opponents by 41 runs in 36 games and it should be pointed out that they've hardly been dominated during this season-worst losing skid as every loss has been by one or two runs. Houston, meanwhile, has been one of the biggest disappointments in all of baseball as they still are seven games below .500 and in last place of a pretty weak AL West. The biggest issue for them has been bullpen regression and that regression has hit hardest on the road where their relievers have posted a 5.48 ERA and 1.360 WHIP. Compare those numbers to the White Sox bullpen, which has improved dramatically this year (1.92 ERA at home, 1.030 WHIP). Obviously, the White Sox are going to have the edge in starting pitching virtually every time Sale takes the mound, but I think that it definitely helps that tonight's starter for Houston (Colin McHugh) has been downright woeful on the road so far. In three road starts, McHugh has an 8.74 ERA and 2.118 WHIP and his last time out saw him give up 10 hits in six innings while walking more hitters than he struck out. Prior to yday's win, the Astros were just 2-13 when coming off a win. They are also allowing 6.0 rpg on the road this year. 6* Chi White Sox | |||||||
05-19-16 | Cubs -160 v. Brewers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
8* Chi Cubs (1:40 ET): I have a feeling that the Cubs "broke the spirit" of the Brewers last night via a 2-1 win in 13 innings. It was almost the Cubbies third straight loss (which would have been a 1st for 2016), however, they were able to tie the game in the top of the ninth (JJ Hardy's first blown save of the year for the Brew Crew) and then reliever Travis Wood was the hero in extra innings by first getting out of a bases loaded jam in the bottom of the 12th, then improbably drawing a bases loaded walk in the top of the 13th to win the game. It's simply been that kind of season so far for the team from the Northside of Chicago and considering the quick turnaround between games here and that giant chasm between the "have's" and "have not's" in the National League that I always like to reference, I say it's advantage Cubs this afternoon. Now the Cubs bullpen obviously was taxed yday, but they came through by throwing seven scoreless innings. Thus, we will likely need a quality start today and thankfully Jason Hammel is just the man for the job. Hammel comes in w/ a 1.77 ERA (third best in the NL) in seven starts (6-1 TSR) and is a perfect 8-0 w/ a 2.37 ERA in his career vs. Milwaukee. He has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season. Six times, he's allowed two or fewer. This is a pretty weak lineup that he'll be facing today as Milwaukee comes in averaging just 2.6 rpg its last seven contests. The Cubs lineup has quieted down itself over the last week, but I assume that's only a temporary thing as they've averaged 6.3 rpg on the road this season. Clearly, it will be difficult to sustain that kind of average, but after scoring all of five runs the L3 days, don't be surprised if they break out here. After all, they lead the NL in runs scored (218) and are averaging nearly 10 runs per game when Hammel starts! Milwaukee starter Junior Guerra has held opponents to a .206 batting average in three starts, but I feel his stock is a little overvalued coming off an impressive outing against the punchless Padres. The Brewers simply aren't a very good team, an opinion that is confirmed by their -37 run differential. 8* Chi Cubs | |||||||
05-18-16 | Braves v. Pirates -185 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -185 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
6* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): This figured to be an easy series for the host Pirates and sure enough it has been thus far as they've posted B2B three-run victories, 8-5 and 12-9. I'll continue to speak of this "giant chasm" that exists between the contenders and non-contenders in the National League while looking to exploit it. There's, of course, no team worse in the Senior Circuit than Atlanta right now as the Braves are 9-29 with a -70 run differential. I can't find any reason why they'd "get off the mat" Wednesday as Pittsburgh should make it three in a row in this four-game set. Atlanta did make a managerial change before yday's game, dumping Fredi Gonzalez in favor of Brian Snitker, who has basically spent his entire career coaching in the organization's minor league system. That change had little to no effect on the big league club Tuesday as they found themselves down 7-0 after one inning and 9-0 after two. Offensively, they simply cannot compete with the Pirates, who had 21 hits yday (season-high) and are now second in all of MLB in team batting average (.282) and 1st in OBP (.361). The Braves are dead last in baseball in runs scored, 28th in batting average, 27th in OBP and 30th (last) in slugging. From a pitching perspective, Atlanta may not seem to be in as bad of shape as starter Julio Teheran has a 1.44 ERA his L5 starts. But the problem has been a lack of run support and as a result his team start record this year is 1-7. It's probably bad news that he's getting the baseball the day after the offense registered a season-high in runs scored and hits. Also, the pressure will be on Teheran to go deep into the game as the bullpen saw extended action yday. Pittsburgh counters w/ Francisco Liriano, who has been a totally different pitcher at home than on the road. He has a 0.71 ERA in two starts here at PNC Park, winning both, so look for him to bounce back from a disastrous showing at Wrigley Field last week. This price range does not scare me at all as the Bucs are 14-4 the L3 seasons as home favorites of -175 to -200. That includes 2-0 this season. 6* Pittsburgh | |||||||
05-17-16 | Giants -168 v. Padres | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
7* San Francisco (10:15 ET): Again, I come back to the rather giant (no pun intended!) chasm that exists this year in the National League between the contenders and non-contenders. Here, we have one team from each group and after watching the Giants sweep another division rival (Arizona) over the weekend, I see no reason why they couldn't do the same here to a San Diego team that is even less impressive on paper. At least, I'll call for San Francisco to take tonight's series opener as they have Madison Bumgarner taking the hill and it's a very reasonable price considering the way he's pitched against the Padres in the past. The Giants have won five in a row coming into this series and in all five wins they've gotten a quality start out of the rotation. It began w/ Bumgarner holding the vaunted Toronto lineup to only one run and three hits in 6 2/3 innings work. He now goes to facing a much weaker lineup obviously and over his L5 starts vs. San Diego, he's 3-0 w/ a 1.69 ERA. Earlier this year, he held them to just two runs in a 5-4 victory at AT&T Park. He hasn't lost since, winning four straight starts. Bumgarner's WHIP hasn't been that good, but I fully expect that number to improve moving forward. San Diego is only averaging 2.9 runs per game at home this season while batting a collective .227. I've yet to speak much about the Padres and what they've been doing of late. They just split a four-game series on the road w/ Milwaukee, during which they were shut out for a Major League leading ninth time. In fact, they were held to three runs or fewer in three of the four games. Tonight's starter Colin Rea has won his last three starts, but was fortunate his last time out in that he had more walks than strikeouts and allowed four runs in just five innings of work. The offense has been surprisingly effective when he pitches, but I don't anticipate that being the case tonight against Bumgarner. Not only is San Diego hitting at only a .213 clip overall its L7 games, but they are averaging just 3.3 rpg against LH starters (.227 BA). 7* San Francisco | |||||||
05-17-16 | Rockies v. Cardinals -175 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -175 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
7* St. Louis (8:15 ET): When writing about the National League this year, I often mention the giant chasm that exists between the contenders and non-contenders. We have one team from each group in this series that gets underway Tuesday at Busch Stadium with the Cardinals hosting the Rockies. So far, St. Louis has been a bit of a disappointment w/ their 20-18 WL record, but a +49 run differential (3rd best in MLB!) indicates that better days could be on the horizon. Or maybe not, but the bottom line is that I have little regard for a Colorado team which is a hideous 64-117 outside of Coors Field the L3 seasons. They come in having won four straight as they just swept the Mets at home, but I'm not buying them, in fact I'll "sell high." It looks to be a fairly significant pitching mismatch for tonight's series opener as the Redbirds will send Jaime Garcia to the bump while the Rockies counter with Chad Bettis. The former has outstanding numbers despite a mediocre team start record, particularly here at home where his ERA is 1.98 and his WHIP is 0.695. Somehow, he's managed to go only 2-2 in those four starts and that "somehow" is the offense scoring only one run for him in each loss. But I would expect the Cards' offense, which is third best in all of MLB right now (5.6 runs per game) to "tee off" against Bettis, who has a 5.89 ERA and 1.528 WHIP his L3 starts and has allowed three or more runs in all but two of his eight starts. It's really surprising to find that Colorado is allowing only 3.4 rpg on the road this year. While the staff is clearly hindered by its home ballpark, it's not like it's an impressive looking group on paper. They've allowed at least six runs in 17 of their 37 games overall and, again, they are facing one of the more prolific lineups in the game here. The last time this club posted a five-game win streak was 2014. For what it's worth, Tuesday simply hasn't been the Rockies day this year as they are 0-6 in Tuesday games. This should be a breakout series for the home team, which is an outstanding 25-5 as a home favorite of -175 to -200 the L3 seasons. 7* St. Louis | |||||||
05-17-16 | Marlins v. Phillies +103 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 103 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Clearly, the Phillies have massively overachieved to this point. All you need to do is look at their -32 run differential to know that the 22-17 record is quite fraudulent. The fact they've gone 14-3 in one-run games is what's "kept them afloat" and they did lose last night, 5-3, here at home to Miami. But, that all being said, they are a solid value tonight w/ Vincent Velasquez on the mound. Philadelphia's starting pitching has been a most pleasant surprise this season, most notably posting a MLB-high six shutouts so far. Two of those have come from Velasquez, plus he also tossed six shutout innings of two-hit ball against Cleveland in what ended up as a 2-1 victory. His first start against Miami wasn't as effective, but now facing them here at home, I think he'll be better the second time around. On May 6th, Velasquez lost to the Marlins 6-4 as he gave up four runs over six innings. That start also saw him allow a season-high seven hits. But the good news is a rematch with Wei-Yin Chen (more on him in a moment) takes place in the City of Brotherly Love where Velasquez has been superb in three starts, posting a 0.93 ERA and 0.724 WHIP. Again, in two of those starts he did not allow a single run. In that first meeting w/ Chen and Miami, it's not like his counterpart pitched that well. In fact, Chen allowed four runs and 11 hits in just five innings of work. He (Chen) then did turn in a season-best performance last Wednesday, striking out 12 in a 3-2 win over the Brewers. But I would not look for a repeat of that here. The most K's that Chen had posted in any start previously was seven and he didn't have any against the Phillies. Only one other time in his career had he struck out 10+ batters. Being that they've been such a surprise to this point, it shouldn't be too shocking to find out that the Phils lead all of MLB in net units at +11.0. Miami, meanwhile, has been an equally surprising 13-7 on the road thus far. So, something has gotta give. Last night, it was the home team giving a little back, but tonight I think Velasquez will get his revenge on Chen now that he gets to face him at Citizens Bank Park. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
05-16-16 | Angels v. Dodgers -178 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -178 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
full analysis soon | |||||||
05-16-16 | Twins v. Tigers -159 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
8* Detroit (7:10 ET): It's been a shaky stretch for the Tigers, who are just 3-11 in May and that has landed manager Brad Ausmus on the proverbial hot seat. But if Ausmus were able to draw up an ideal situation for his club to get back on track, then it would probably look something like tonight as they are back at home, facing the lowly Minnesota Twins and have Jordan Zimmerman on the mound. When these AL Central rivals met earlier in the season, it was all Detroit as they rolled to a three-game sweep, outscoring Minnesota 19-8 in the process. While the Twins are coming off B2B road wins for the first time all season, that doubled their number of total road wins all season, and thus it's difficult to envision them making it three in a row here at the Tigers' expense. Zimmerman has yet to have a bad start for the Tigers as he's 7 for 7 in quality outings and brings in a 1.50 ERA and 1.104 WHIP. Unfortunately, the team has also lost his last two starts, but there's a good reason for that as he was being opposed by Cole Hamels and then Max Scherzer, who held Detroit to just three runs combined. I'll touch on what kind of run support I expect him to get in a moment, but Zimmerman should have no problems here w/ a Twins lineup that is tied for last in the American League for runs scored. He held them to just one run (on six hits) over seven innings back on April 30th while also posting his best KW ratio to date (7-0). Jose Berrios was Minnesota's top minor league pitcher last year, but success has yet to really come to the 21-year old at the big league level as he owns a 6.28 ERA and 1.745 WHIP through three starts and he's walked eight batters in 14 1/3 IP. His one road start was the best of the three, but I expect him to struggle here against a Tigers lineup which has the top two hitters in the entire American League right now (in terms of batting average). Victor Martinez is hitting .352 and Nick Castellanos is at .344. Those two combined to go 15 for 24 at the plate in the last series vs. Minnesota w/ Castellanos hitting a pair of home runs. It's downright shocking that the Tigers are only 5-9 at home thus far, but the Twins are just 4-16 on the road (0-8 in the +125 to +150 price range) and thus what should be an easy series for Detroit gets off to a positive start this evening. 8* Detroit | |||||||
05-16-16 | Braves v. Pirates -170 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 36 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): The Pirates were finally able to beat the Cubs yday, 2-1, despite the fact that they were actually no-hit for the first six innings. Now that they've completed that series, things should get far easier for the Bucs as they go from facing the best team in baseball (sorry, Gerrit Cole) to its worst. This series with Atlanta actually begins a 24-game stretch outside of the division for Pittsburgh, which has to be music to the club's ears considering the fact they're actually seven games below .500 vs. the rest of the NL Central since the start of last season. The Braves' record might be significantly worse when they're at home, but they still are being outscored by 1.2 runs per game on the road. This should be an easy series for the home team, who I have winning big tonight. | |||||||
05-15-16 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -135 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
10* Arizona (4:10 ET): It's rare to see a home team swept in a four-game series, but that's the fate awaiting Arizona were they to lose again this afternoon. Fortunately, they will be going up against Matt Cain, who is 0-5 in seven starts (1-6 TSR) w/ a 6.69 ERA and 1.512 WHIP this year. Now, I understand that yday saw them fail to break through against another struggling San Francisco starter, that being Jake Peavy. But on Sunday, the D'backs have a better starter of their own going and that should prove to be the difference as they look to avoid the sweep. Sooner rather than later, the club's awful 5-15 record at home is due to turn around. Cain has been especially bad on the road this year for the Giants as his ERA is 10.12 in two starts. The team has lost each of the last six times he's taken the mound, even the last time despite him allowing only two runs over eight innings (offense was shut out vs. Toronto). But he'd allowed at least six runs in three of five starts previous to that one and didn't fare much better when he faced Arizona on April 19th. There, he allowed three runs in only 4 2/3 innings and again the offense was shutout. I guess I should perhaps offer a caveat on my opening statement about home teams rarely getting swept in four-game series because that happened to the Giants in last month's series vs. the D'backs. So the road team is now 7-0 in head to head meetings. Simply put, the home team is due to win one, right? Pitching today for Arizona is Rubby De La Rosa, who has been trending in a positive direction as of late. He allowed just one run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings his last time out as the team won 5-1 at Colorado. That was the third time in his last four starts that De La Rosa allowed 1 or 0 ER and his WHIP is down to 0.950 his L3 starts. He is 4-1 all-time vs. San Francisco and posted a 3.16 ERA against them as a starter last season. Last night's game could have gone either way as Arizona tied things up heading into the ninth only to allow two runs in the top of the frame. It's been nothing but low-scoring games so far in this series, but I look for the D'backs to finally get it going offensively today and it's established that they have the edge in starting pitching. 10* Arizona | |||||||
05-15-16 | White Sox v. Yankees -170 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
7* NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Pinstripes drew a tough assignment the last two days, first facing Chris Sale and then Jose Quintana. But they were able to salvage a split and today the pitching matchup seems firmly in their favor as Masahiro Tanaka opposes Miguel Gonzalez. It was a 2-1 final in the Yanks' favor yday and for the first time we were able to see their bullpen in "full effect" as Dellin Betances, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman completely dominated the final three innings, combining for eight strikeouts and allowing only one hit. That's going to be a very dangerous trio moving forward and combined with the starting pitching edge, it's an easy call on the home team this afternoon. | |||||||
05-14-16 | Angels v. Mariners -160 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -160 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
8* Seattle (9:10 ET): The Mariners are a team few are talking about, but they should have your attention right now. They lead the AL West and a +31 run differential verifies that they are legit. While they did lose yday's series opener to the Angels, I fully expect the M's to bounce back tonight as I'd put the Halos at the opposite end of the spectrum right now. Los Angeles was a team that I expected to struggle this year and being that they are so decimaned by injuries right now, it's going to be tough for them to consistently win games. They'd, in fact, dropped six in a row heading into yday. Seattle, meanwhile, has still won 16 of its last 22. | |||||||
05-14-16 | Braves v. Royals -168 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -168 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
8* Kansas City (7:15 ET): I'm not very high on the Royals this year as I expected them to regress in 2016 and regress they have (currently 17-18, -15 run differential). BUT, as yday showed, this series with Atlanta should be a relative "walk in the park." The reigning World Series champs are still a strong 10-5 at home this season, so that's a good sign as is the fact the Braves are an absolutely atrocious 8-26 overall w/ a -69 run differential, both of which are MLB worsts. It was a 5-1 win for the home team on Friday behind seven strong innings from Edinson Volquez. Dillon Gee makes his 1st start for the Royals tonight and I expect a similarly strong outing from him. Gee has not started a game since last June when he was still with the Mets. When the team that Kansas City beat in LY's World Series became so "pitching rich," Gee became expendable. But that by no means is to say he can't be a good starting pitcher. He had a lot of early success in his Mets' career and so far this season he's been effective coming out of the bullpen w/ a 2.61 ERA in seven appearances. He's struck out 16 batters in 20 2/3 IP. Though he's transitioning from being a reliever, we should not worry about any kind of durability issues as at one point in his career he'd gone at least five innings in 51 consecutive starts, which at the time was the longest active streak in all of MLB. Further helping Gee and the Royals' cause is the fact that Atlanta has the worst offense in the majors. We saw that last night when they managed only one run and they've now scored only 102 runs in 34 games, an average of just 3.0/game. They are batting just .214 on the road this year and I don't think the simple addition of the DH to the lineup will be enough to cure what ills them. The Braves have scored only 19 runs total in the last eight games. Making matters worse is that starter Mike Foltynewicz was rocked in his lone road start thus far, giving up four runs in just 3 2/3 IP. So while Kansas City's results to this point have been disappointing, this is a series that they should most definitely sweep and I have them winning big tonight. 8* Kansas City | |||||||
05-14-16 | Twins v. Indians -185 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -185 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
6* Cleveland (4:10 ET): Over the last year, I've always felt for the Indians' Corey Kluber. It's not like the former Cy Young winner has pitched that much worse than he did in his award winning season (2014), he's just been far less "lucky." Yes, there have been seven different times (in 39 starts) that he's allowed 5+ ER. But a lot of those results have come despite him still not putting many runners on base. Case in point; his last time out saw him give up five runs on five hits. Now he did last only 2 2/3 innings in a shocking performance vs. the Phillies, but that was his third loss this year where he allowed only five hits. (He went much longer in the other two). The disparity between his WHIP (1.073) and ERA (4.14) tells me that Kluber is due to turn things around and it starts today against the worst team in the American League, Minnesota. What's strange about Kluber's last outing is that he'd really seemed to have "turned a corner" as his previous three outings saw him allow just four runs and 12 hits in 24 IP, including one CG shutout (came here at home) w/ a 23-2 KW ratio. Likewise, Minnesota's Ervin Santana is off his shortest outing of 2016, but he doesn't have the resume of Kluber and is just 4-10 w/ a 4.49 ERA in 19 career starts vs. the Indians. The team has lost all five of his starts this season and he's posted a 1.629 WHIP. The Twins have now been outscored by 64 runs this season. 6* Cleveland | |||||||
05-13-16 | Marlins v. Nationals -148 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Both of these teams were able to win their previous series by taking the first and last games respectively. Washington played three one-run games against Detroit while Miami won two low scoring games against Milwaukee and was routed in the one loss. This is already the third time these NL East rivals have hooked up in 2016 and so far they're dead even at three games apiece. While this all sounds like we have a relatively even matchup on our hands for Friday, I feel it is anything but as the Nats send Gio Gonzalez to the bump against the struggling Tom Koehler for the Marlins. This one is all about the pitching matchup, plus Miami should definitely feel a little fortunate to be 18-15 given they've been outscored this year. Washington has the fourth best run differential in all of baseball. Gonzalez has pitched better than his record (3-3 TSR) as he has a 2.19 ERA and 1.054 WHIP. Here at home, both those numbers go down even further. He is off his worst outing date, but that one was excusable as it came against the red hot Cubs. The five runs he allowed at Wrigley were nearly equal to the total number of runs he'd allowed in his first five starts combined (6). So tonight should be a good bounce back opportunity. Of course, he's quite familiar with the Marlins, being that they are a division opponent, and since joining the Nats in 2012 his record here at home against them is 4-1 w/ a 1.64 ERA. The Marlins averaged only three runs per game in the Milwaukee series. Koehler has been a disaster on the road thus far with a 7.91 ERA and 2.123 WHIP. Unlike Gonzalez, he is actually coming off his best start of the year, but that was against Philadelphia at home. So, as you can see, this is one of those great opportunities to "buy low" (w/ Gonzalez) and "sell high" (w/ Koehler) at the same time. Three times Koehler has allowed 5+ runs this season and facing Bryce Harper has always been a problem for him. Harper is 9 for 28 lifetime w/ six home runs vs. Koehler. That's his most HR's versus any pitcher. 8* Washington | |||||||
05-12-16 | Astros v. Red Sox -148 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:10 ET): The Red Sox are coming off an incredibly successful series. I had them yday (13-3 win!) as they finished off a sweep of the A's, whom they outscored 40-15 over the course of the three games. Boston now owns an AL-best +48 run differential thanks to an offense that has caught the Cubs for most runs scored in all of baseball. Therefore, the fact that they are available at this price w/ David Price pitching seems to be a steal. Granted, Price has not pitched particularly well for his new team and will be opposed by Dallas Keuchel here. But I feel a rebound for Price is highly likely and last year's Cy Young winner (Keuchel) simply is not as effective on the road as he is at Minute Maid Park in Houston. | |||||||
05-11-16 | A's v. Red Sox -180 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:10 ET): The Red Sox appear to be "as good as advertised" this year as they are second in wins among American League clubs and first in run differential (+38). They've won three straight, scoring 27 runs in this series alone and tonight look to finish off the sweep with Rick Porcello (0.958 WHIP) on the hill. Offensively, this club is blowing away the rest of the field in the A.L as they've scored 183 runs, which is 23 more than the second best team. This shapes up as a total mismatch with an Oakland club that the Red Sox are 7-1 against since the start of last season. The A's are trending in a very bad direction right now as they've lost eight of their last nine games and given up a total of 38 runs in the last three. You certainly aren't going to win many games doing that and it certainly doesn't help that they are in the bottom half of the American League in runs scored anyway. Making matters worse here is that they'll be sending a starter with a 5.58 ERA and 1.913 WHIP to the hill. That would be Eric Surkamp, who is making his return to the big leagues after already being demoted to Triple A Nashville. Having only once lasted longer than five innings (in four starts), this is probably not the most desirable spot for Surkamp to rejoin the rotation. Meanwhile, Boston has Porcello, who is having a great 2016. He is coming off five consecutive quality starts and ranks in the top 10 in KW ratio w/ a 5.13. He's been lights out here at Fenway (0.787 WHIP) and his last time starting here he delivered seven scoreless innings of five-hit ball. Backed by the American League's best offense, I see no reason why Porcello won't be dominant again here as batters are hitting just .111 against his change-up and .190 against his slider. 8* Boston | |||||||
05-11-16 | White Sox v. Rangers -129 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
8* Texas (2:05 ET): The Rangers rallied back from a five-run deficit to stun the White Sox last night, scoring seven runs in the bottom of the eighth to earn themselves a 13-11 victory. With the quick turnaround between games, I certainly believe that it's "advantage home team" here as the two play the rubber match of the three-game set. We all know that Chicago has enjoyed tremendous success so far in 2016, but perhaps it's time to "pump the breaks" a little bit on them. Before last night, White Sox pitching had been otherworldly in the late innings w/ a lead, so something like that was bound to happen. Today, I think that for once the starting pitching matchup will NOT be in the Sox favor. Mat Latos, who turned in a 4.95 ERA last season playing for three different teams, is one of four pitchers who currently is unbeaten with a TSR of 6-0 or better. The other three names on the list should all sound familiar: Arrieta, Sale, Strasburg. You'll note that Chicago has two of the four pitchers in its rotation, so that certainly helps explain this fast start of theirs. But Latos is certainly an outlier and has shown signs of regression in his previous two outings by giving up 4 ER each time (in just 10 total IP) and three home runs. The offense has been able to bail him out, but that will be a lot tougher to do here with Cole Hamels pitching for the Rangers. Hamels is also unbeaten in six starts (4-0), though his TSR is 5-1. His numbers are basically identical to Latos (2.68 ERA, 1.216 WHIP), the only difference being that Hamels is coming off an outstanding outing, one where he gave up only one hit in seven scoreless innings at Detroit. Texas is quietly putting together a nice little season so far (19-15, +13 run differential) and earlier I mentioned the benefit of being the home team with this quick turnaround between games. Well, the Rangers record as home favorites in the -125 to -150 price range is 3-0 this season and 18-9 the L3 seasons. Offensively, this team has also scored eight or more runs in three of its last four games. 8* Texas | |||||||
05-10-16 | Mets -115 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
10* NY Mets (10:10 ET): This series is a battle of two teams that came into 2016 w/ legit World Series aspirations, but so far the Mets have proven themselves to be the better ballclub. Not only did they just beat the Dodgers last night, 4-2, but they are 20-11 on the year w/ a +44 run differential that is second best in all of baseball (though way behind the record-setting Cubs). Meanwhile, Los Angeles is just a .500 team (though +12 in run differential). Having to face Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda the next two days, I believe it is imperative that the Mets take advantage of the edge they'll have in starting pitching tonight. Remember that the Mets eliminated the Dodgers in LY's playoffs. Jacob de Grom won two of the three games for his team in that series and will be the one getting the baseball tonight. In those two playoff victories, de Grom allowed just 2 ER in 13 IP and it's important to note both outings took place here at Chavez Ravine. Predictably, de Grom is off to a fine beginning to 2016 w/ a 1.99 ERA in four starts, though he did take a surprising loss to the Padres his last time out. I expect him to bounce back here, however, as he has a 1.01 career WHIP vs. the Dodgers. Dodgers starter Alex Wood gave up three home runs to a pretty light-hitting Rays lineup his last time out, so that certainly doesn't bode well when facing a Mets team that actually led the NL last year in runs scored on the road. Sure enough, the reigning Senior Circuit champs are averaging more runs per game on the road than at home this year (4.7) and that's a big reason why they are 11-5 outside of Citi Field. Not only are the Dodgers just 5-9 at home this year, but they are 0-4 when the money line is -100 to -125, dropping them to 6-17 in that price range the L3 seasons. 10* NY Mets | |||||||
05-10-16 | Cardinals v. Angels -119 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -119 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): If you got a chance to check out my analysis from Sunday, then you know that I'm not very high on the Angels this season. I'd said that before and in fact at the outset of the season I called for a last place finish in the American League West. Sure enough, they got swept by the Rays here at home over the weekend and now find themselves five games under .500 with a -17 run differential. But they have been pretty good in games when Hector Santiago has toed the rubber (5-1 record) and I see them putting an end to this home losing streak of theirs tonight against a St. Louis team that just has the feel of being pretty unlucky this year. The Cardinals have a .500 record, but are +40 in run differential. Normally, this would lead me to believe the a long win streak might soon be forthcoming, but something tells me that this club is going to pay for the last several years of overachieving. We've come to expect the Redbirds being one of the best teams in baseball year in and year out, but in 2016 they just don't look as good on paper. One key has been they have gone from #1 in runs allowed in 2015 to a middle of the pack ranking this year. Tonight's starter Mike Leake, acquired in the offseason, has certainly played a significant role in that as he's posted a 6.03 ERA in six starts. Still winless, Leake allowed at least four runs in every start this year. His record in Interleague Play is poor (1-5, 7.44 ERA L8 starts), particularly on the road where he is winless. As mentioned earlier, Santiago has offered a "ray of hope" for an injury-ravaged Angels club. Not only is his team start record 5-1 this season, but going back to the start of September, the team is 11-1 the L12 times he's been on the mound. That includes five straight wins at home where he's posted a 2.69 ERA his L19 starts. Santiago has a 1.00 WHIP in his two home starts this year and provided he gets the requisite amount of help from his offense, I see no reason why the Halos (who are favored to win tonight) don't get the job done. 10* LA Angels | |||||||
05-10-16 | Phillies v. Braves -112 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -112 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (7:05 ET): The Braves are the worst team in baseball (both in terms of record & run differential) and this will be just the second time all season that they have been favored on the money (lost 4-2 to Arizona on Saturday as -120 faves). They are an ungodly 1-15 here at Turner Field as well. But they keys to this somewhat unusual selection are that they have a starter who has actually looked very good in 2016 (despite having a 1-4 team start record) and that the opponent has been overachieving to such a degree that soon regression is inevitable. I'll step out on a limb here and call for a rare Atlanta victory. Starting tonight for the home team will be Matt Wisler (0.928 WHIP), who as you can tell is absolutely deserving of a better WL record. He finally got his first win last Tuesday, as a +205 ML dog no less. That came opposite Matt Harvey as Wisler tossed an absolute gem, holding the Mets to just one hit over eight scoreless innings.. Opponents are now hitting only .175 against Wisler for the season, which is the sixth lowest batting average allowed by any pitcher in all of baseball! Something else to consider here is that he's working on 6+ days rest and in the past that's been very advantageous for him. In five career starts w/ that much rest, he's 4-0 w/ a 2.52 ERA. Philadelphia is somehow 18-14 despite a -27 run differential. In addition to scoring only 104 runs in 32 games, they have a .227 team batting average and .643 OPS. Atlanta is the only team worse than them in those three categories, but the key for the Phillies has been "luck" as in a MLB-best 11-3 record in one-run games. That won't continue forever and, in fact, I expect the record to start regressing to the mean very shortly. While the Braves might have the terrible home record, they did go 7-2 against the Phils here last season. Phillies starter Adam Morgan has a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP after two starts which have seen him give up six runs and 11 hits in only nine innings of work. This is one of the few games - and series for that matter - that on paper the Braves have a good chance at winning. 10* Atlanta | |||||||
05-09-16 | Blue Jays -121 v. Giants | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
10* Toronto (10:15 ET): Safe to say that the Blue Jays and Giants, two teams that have World Series aspirations, aren't where they thought they'd be in the standings at this juncture of the season. I think Toronto has been a little more "unlucky" as they have a +11 run differential despite being a game under .500. Meanwhile, 17-16 San Francisco is just +1, so their differential is actually a more accurate representation of how they've played. While a play on the Jays typically revolves around a discussion of their offense, here it is a case of them having a clear advantage in the starting pitching department. They may have let me down yday, but I'm back on MLB's Canadian contingent again. | |||||||
05-09-16 | Rays v. Mariners -142 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
8* Seattle (10:10 ET): Seeing Felix Hernandez with only a 3-3 team start record and available at this price, at home, both seem pretty odd. So I'll definitely "buy low" on King Felix here as the Mariners are a team more people should be talking about given their +26 run differential, which is currently second best in the entire American League. I took Tampa Bay yday as they finished off a sweep of the downtrodden Angels, but I'm interested to see how they perform now that they're above .500 for the first time all year. My guess is that it's time to "sell high" on them. This will be just the third time that Hernandez has gotten to pitch at home. The previous two times have seen him not give up a single run (only eight hits allowed) in 14+ IP. Now, he is coming off - easily - his worst start of 2016 to date as he allowed eight runs (four unearned) at Oakland last Wednesday. But also consider that was more runs than he allowed in his previous five starts combined. He'd allowed 1 or 0 earned runs in four of those first five starts. This should be a good matchup for him as the Rays are tied for 27th in runs scored (third fewest) in all of baseball. In 15 career starts vs. TB, Hernandez is 7-2 w/ a 1.90 ERA and that includes a perfect 6-0 in the 10 that have come at home (10-0 team start record). The Rays will have to lean on Matt Moore in this one and the problem with that is he's 0-3 his last three starts and was also shelled his last time out. The Dodgers touched him up for seven runs in just 4 1/3 innings and there's now been only one start all year where Moore didn't give up a home run. That's bad news when getting set to face a hitter the likes of Robinson Cano (AL's home run leader), who is batting .514 the last eight games with four HR's. The Mariners' offense - as a whole - underperformed the L3 days, but I see them turning it around tonight at Safeco Field where they are due to break out (just 5-7 at home so far). 8* Seattle | |||||||
05-09-16 | Tigers v. Nationals -190 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
5* Washington (7:05 ET): Both of these teams experienced rather dreadful weekends, but the Nationals at least have the "built-in" excuse that they had to play the Cubs, at Wrigley no less. It's the Tigers that are really reeling here as they've now dropped six in a row after being swept by both the Indians and Rangers. In fact, they've now been swept in three of their past five series! The juice on the Nats is pretty high here, but deservingly so, as they are back in the Beltway and have Stephen Strasburg on the bump. They are a perfect 6-0 in Strasburg starts thus far including a 13-2 win his last time out. Detroit has scored a grand total of 16 runs during its six-game skid. Therefore, losing the DH spot (NL park) in the lineup certainly does them no favors for this series. Strasburg has posted a 2.36 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in his six starts and only once has he allowed more than two runs. His KW ratio is a phenomenal 36-3 his L4 starts, which is what we've always expected to see from him. I'm a little surprised to find that Detroit is 5-1 in Interleague Play with four of those games coming in NL parks. But the offense was in a much better place back then compared to now. Washington is also 5-1 in Interleague Play this season and that included taking two of three in Kansas City last week, one of those wins coming in Strasburg's last start (allowed two runs & five hits in 6 IP). Not only has Detroit not scored much during its losing streak, but they've also allowed 43 runs, an average of slightly more than seven per game. Tonight's starter Anibal Sanchez figures to significantly add to that total as he comes in w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.80 WHIP his L3 turns. Those numbers are a tad bit skewed due to one disastrous outing vs. Cleveland on April 23rd, but then he allowed four more runs to the Indians on Wednesday. In between, he managed to pick up a win over Oakland, but even then he issued a frightening number of walks (seven!). It's not like the Nats' were hurting for offense against the Cubs as they totaled 14 runs and yday they took MLB's best team to 13 innings. Strasburg has not lost in his last six interleague starts. 5* Washington | |||||||
05-08-16 | Rays v. Angels -123 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -123 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
THIS PLAY IS ON THE RAYS. Incorrectly Entered Above. 10* Tampa Bay (3:35 ET): This is a great price on the Rays, who are underdogs despite beating the Angels each of the last two days. There isn’t a single pitcher in the Halos rotation that dictates they should be favored on the money line in any situation, least of all the struggling Nick Tropeano, and as I’ve said before I’m just not very high on this ball club in 2016. Tampa Bay has had its issues scoring runs so far this season, but they’ve allowed only four in this series and thus I have them finishing off the sweep. Tropeano hasn’t only been bad, he’s been inefficient to boot. He’s thrown at least 89 pitches in every start this season despite never making it past the 5 1/3 inning mark. His last time out, he gave up five runs in exactly five innings and while that was on only five hits, he also issued five walks. He also allowed three home runs and keep in mind this was facing a very bad Milwaukee lineup. Tropeano now has a 1.633 WHIP for the season, which quite frankly is pretty lousy. Speaking of lousy, the Angels are bottom five in the AL in run differential currently (-15) and have lost six of their last eight games overall. The Rays counter with Matt Andriese, who will be making his 2016 debut. He definitely looked good down at Triple-A Indianapolis, most notably five days ago when he struck out 14 batters. Starting him in this spot is a wise decision by Rays skipper Kevin Cash as the Angels really seem to struggle against right-handers more so than southpaws. Their slash line vs. righties so far is .239/.303/.360 with all three categories down from where they’re at against lefties. Andriese has big league experience having made eight starts last year (posted 3.57 ERA). Tampa Bay has beaten the Angels head to head in five of the past seven meetings. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
05-08-16 | Dodgers v. Blue Jays -172 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -172 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
8* Toronto (1:07 ET): Before losing yday to Clayton Kershaw, the Blue Jays had been coming on strong of late (had won each of the previous four days). Their +13 run differential is fifth best in the American League right now and indicative of the fact they probably should be better than just .500 for the year. I like their chances today w/ Marco Estrada on the bump as his overall numbers show he’s deserving of far better than a 2-3 team start record to this point. Furthermore, the Dodgers counter with Ross Stripling, who has been ineffective of late to say the least. Look for Toronto to win this Interleague series. Estrada comes in with a 2.64 ERA and 1.174 WHIP overall. Three of his five starts have come here at home where he’s been even better, posting a 1.83 ERA and 0.864 WHIP. The team has won two of those three, including a 3-1 decision earlier in the week (Tuesday) where Estrada allowed just one run on two hits over 6 IP. His strikeout number (3) wasn’t very good, but at least the number of walks were down (8 BB’s prev two starts). It’s pretty remarkable that an offense as good as this one (led MLB in runs scored – by a mile – last year) has yet to score more than three runs in any Estrada start this year. I expect that to change after today and thus we should be in very good shape. Stripling has a 6.58 ERA and 2.048 WHIP his L3 starts after allowing five runs on seven hits in just 4 2/3 innings his last time out. He’s failed to make it past the 5 1/3 inning mark in each of those last three starts and what’s really troubling about that is the fact he’s gotten to face some of the weakest lineups in the game (SD, Miami and Atlanta) during that time. Prior to winning yday, the Dodgers had won just 2 of their previous 10 games. Starting rotation depth was a major problem for Los Angeles last season as Kershaw and Zack Greinke had to carry them. Greinke is now gone and Kershaw can’t pitch every day. For what it’s worth, the Blue Jays are a perfect 5-0 on Sundays this year. 8* Toronto | |||||||
05-07-16 | Twins v. White Sox -209 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
6* Chi White Sox (7:10 ET): The White Sox, as expected, took care of business last night against the sorry Twins. They won the season opener, 10-4, which means they’re now a perfect 4-0 this season against their division rival. This series now shapes up as a battle of teams with the best and worst run differentials in the American League (it goes w/o saying “who’s who”), so it’s a complete mismatch already and with Chris Sale toeing the rubber for the home team, I actually think the ML for today’s game is absurdly low. Certainly, the linesmakers opened it way too low as it’s been pounded by just about everybody since. This is one instance where I certainly am willing to go along with the majority. Sale has already established himself as the early front runner from the AL Cy Young award. Through six starts, he’s a perfect 6-0 and he’s posted an ERA of 1.66 and a WHIP of 0.808. Last time out was actually his shortest start of the season (just 5 1/3 IP) as he did experience some control issues (four walks), but I would not be the least bit concerned even though the Twins have surprisingly had his number in the past. Sale still allowed only the one run vs. Baltimore on Sunday & over his last four starts, he’s given up just two runs total – in 29 1/3 innings of work. The Twins are just 4-16 off a loss this year and they come into tonight off a pair of bad ones, first 16-4 at Houston and then 10-4 last night. That drops them to just 2-13 on the road as the only team with a worse run differential and record is Atlanta. As if facing Sale wasn’t bad enough, the Twins will also then have to deal with a White Sox bullpen which is currently leading all of MLB. Overall, Chicago pitchers have an absurd 0.35 ERA in the seventh inning or later when leading and are a perfect 20-0. Minnesota was a lucky team last year, but clearly regressing. Meanwhile, it appears as if this could turn into a special season on both sides of the Windy City. 6* Chi White Sox | |||||||
05-07-16 | Rockies v. Giants -164 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): This season, there is a giant chasm that exists between the “have’s” and “have not’s” in the National League. It’s something that I’ve previously brought to the attention of my regular readers/clients and we can take advantage of it again today. Basically, coming into the year there were seven supposed playoff contenders (Nats, Mets, Cubs, Pirates, Cards, Dodgers and Giants). Everyone else, save for maybe Miami and Arizona, was projected to be pretty bad. Until further notice, I’m going to look to exploit this disparity any time I can. The Giants beat the Rockies pretty easily last night and I see no reason why they won’t do the same here again Saturday afternoon. Colorado scored the game’s first four runs yday, but after that it was all Giants, including a quick answer of three runs of their own in the bottom of the second. That was a strong bounce back after the rather shocking result Thursday provided, that being a 17-7 Colorado victory here at AT&T Park. I fully expect the home team to control the remainder of this series as you have to remember that the Rockies are traditionally a dreadful road team, one that has gone a woeful 63-117 since the start of the 2014 season. The fact they’ve started 2016 by winning 10 of their first 17 away from hitter-friendly Coors Field is not something that I’m “buying into.” Johnny Cueto gives his team a significant advantage coming into this afternoon’s game. I say that even though he struggled his last time out (had one bad inning), against his former team, the Reds. But the Giants still won the game and are now 5-1 in Cueto starts. Something to keep in mind is that aside from two innings that didn’t go his way, Cueto has allowed only six runs in 40 1/3 IP this year. Aside from the somewhat disastrous third inning vs. Cincinnati, he was actually quite good as he got 15 batters to swing and miss and induced seven groundouts. He’s 4-2 in eight career starts vs. the Rockies. Meanwhile, I wouldn’t be very comfortable in backing Jonathan Gray, who is today’s starter for Colorado, as he’s been hit up pretty hard despite impressive looking strikeout numbers in three starts (7.98 ERA, 1.636 WHIP). 8* San Francisco | |||||||
05-06-16 | Royals v. Indians -135 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:10 ET): The Tribe comes into this series riding high following their second sweep of Detroit this season. They are now a game above .500 and their +18 run differential (4th best in the American League) indicates that they probably should have won even more games to this point. Meanwhile, division rival Kansas City is also a game above .500, but they have been outscored by 13 runs thus far, a major difference. The defending World Series Champs simply have not been playing good baseball of late as they've dropped seven of nine and the last time we saw them (Wednesday), they were on the wrong end of a 13-2 beatdown. Truth be told, the Royals' early-season struggles are not a surprise as I expected them to regress thsi season. What is a bit of a surprise is the fact that KC is among the bottom five in all of MLB when it comes to runs scored. They've averaged just 2.1 rpg over the last seven days. Typically, this had been a great on base percentage team for manager Ned Yost, but they're way down in that department this season (.301) and they have five regulars that are below that team OBP average. All this is not a good sign when getting set to face the Indians' Danny Salazar, who has yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season and carries a 0.967 WHIP into tonight's contest. Opponents are batting just .139 against him so far, which is the lowest average in all of MLB! Pitching has also been a problem of late for the Royals as they've given up a total of 19 runs the last two games. Tonight's starter, Yordano Ventura, allowed five runs in just four innings his last time out and certainly didn't help himself by issuing six walks either. The offense was shutout in that game anway, one of three times that's happened over the L6 games, by the way. Cleveland is just the better team at this point, even more so than the money line would seem to indicate. Over the L3 seasons, the Royals are just 13-23 as ML road dogs of +125 to +150, including 0-3 this year. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
05-06-16 | Rangers v. Tigers -134 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -134 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
8* Detroit (7:10 ET): The Tigers are just happy to have escaped Cleveland where they were swept for a second time by the division rival Indians this season. They actually came into that last series on a five-game win streak, which I think is important to remember when assessing the team. The next opponent, Texas, also has lost its last three games - all up in Toronto including yday when they were bludgeoned to the tune of 12-2. With neither team in fine form coming into this series opener, I instead turn to the starting pitching matchup and while the Rangers may have Cole Hamels going, Detroit counters with the red-hot Jordan Zimmerman, who has been among the best pitchers in all of baseball to this point. Zimmerman has won all five starts and has done so while posting a 0.55 ERA and 1.061 WHIP. Only two pitchers in history have started a season with a lower ERA in their first five starts as he's allowed just four runs in 33 IP and two of them were unearned. His YTD KW rate might not be outstanding, but it was 7-0 in his last start. Texas has been held to a total of eight runs in its last four games, so Zimmerman is the last pitcher they probably want to see right now. This will be the first time that a lot of the Rangers hitters have even seen him. Hamels has remained successful of late (2-1 TSR L3 starts) in spite of a couple bad outings, one of them coming his last time out. The Rangers lost that one, 9-6 to the Angels, as Hamels allowed four runs in 5 IP and also walked four batters. His 1.647 WHIP over his last three starts is simply not good and the margin for error here facing Zimmerman is razor thin. Texas is just 5-9 on the road thus far and like Detroit saw their run differential take a major hit in the last series. Homefield and Zimmerman are the difference makers in this one. 8* Detroit | |||||||
05-06-16 | Nationals -102 v. Cubs | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
9* Washington (2:20 ET): Given their current record (21-6) and otherworldly run differential (+96), betting against the Cubs right now might seem like a bad idea. However, as this afternoon's money line indicates, this figures to be one of their stiffest tests in some time as Washington (#2 in MLB in run differential) is in town and has Max Scherzer going on the bump. In four road starts so far, Scherzer has a 0.962 WHIP and he is coming off an outing where he tossed seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball (9-0 KW ratio) at St. Louis. Also, the Cubs have not exactly "cleaned up" in day games this year as they're record is just 6-4. The Nats are the ones being undervalued here. Washington was limited to only three hits last night and scored both of its runs in the ninth inning. That's a far cry from what we saw from this offense on Wednesday when they pounded out 16 hits in a 13-2 dismantling of the Royals. Here they face John Lackey, who has a subpar 4.32 ERA, although I concede that his WHIP (1.110) indicates that he's probably pitched better than that. Still though, the Cubs have lost each of Lackey's last two starts and those games were against Atlanta and Cincinnati, arguably the two weakest teams in all of baseball. The lineup he faces today is averaging 5.1 rpg on the road and for all the talk about the Cubs incredible start, the Nats are only 2.5 games behind them in the standings. Scherzer has a 1.42 ERA against the Cubs in three career starts, all of them coming here at Wrigley. One key to today's game is that the Cubs hottest hitter, Ben Zobrist, is just 3 for 20 all-time against him. Washington is also 8-4 in day games so far. That's a better mark than the Cubs, who at some point will see their record setting pace of outscoring opponents slow down. Interestingly enough, Chicago is just 4-3 this season when coming into a game on a three-game win streak. They are due to drop one and this is a great price on the usually heavily favored Scherzer (was -170 or higher on the ML each of his first five starts). 9* Washington | |||||||
05-05-16 | Mets -180 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -180 | 22 h 12 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (10:10 ET): I will continue to harp on the massive chasm that exists between the have's and have not's in the National League. This year's Senior Circuit can essentially be broken down into two very distinct groups. One is the seven legit playoff contenders (Nats, Mets, Cubs, Cards, Pirates, Dodgers and Giants). The second group is everybody else. Maybe one team from the also-ran group will eventually "step up," but I highly doubt it's going to be the lowly Padres, a team that carries with it very little promise for the future. The Mets, meanwhile, have won 8 of 10 and have the third best run differential in baseball. This series, like so many we're going to see in the NL this year, shapes up as a mismatch. Jacob DeGrom starting tonight for the Mets only serves to further tilt things in his team's favor. In three starts thus far, he has a 1.02 ERA and 1.075 WHIP. The Mets have also won all three games. Last time out, four walks played a role in him allowing a season-high three runs, all unearned. The first two starts were against two of those bad teams that the NL has to offer, Atlanta and Philadelphia, and he allowed only 1 ER to both. DeGrom has pitched once before here at Petco Park (which is typically pitcher-friendly) and he delivered eight scoreless innings of two-hit ball (8-0 KW ratio). San Diego has already been shut out eight times this season, easily the most times in all of baseball, including a 2-0 loss yday when they were held to three hits. In fact, no other team has been shut out more than four times! The Mets are also swinging the bats quite well of late w/ 89 runs scored during a 13-3 stretch where they've managed to win six consecutive series. This combination of hot hitting and outstanding starting pitching makes this a difficult team to beat, especially when the opponent is sending out a hurler the likes of Colin Rea, who has a 1.557 WHIP thus far. The Mets offense was one of the best in baseball last year in runs scored per game on the road and they've continued that trend into 2016 as they are averaging a healthy 5.4 runs per game away from Citi Field. 8* NY Mets | |||||||
05-05-16 | Phillies v. Cardinals -174 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 48 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (1:40 ET): It has been quite the frustrating season, thus far, for the Redbirds. Even though their run differential of +41 is the fourth best in the sport, the club finds itself at just 14-14 in the standings, which is positively mediocre. Might this be the year that "lady luck" simply isn't on St. Louis' side? Maybe, but I'm certainly not going to start writing them off in May, especially when they're paired up against the overachieving Phillies, who are 16-12 on the season yet have a run differential of -23. I specifically cited the respective run differentials as a reason to play the Cardinals in Monday's series opener, which they won, and since then the teams have exchanged one-run victories. I liked the Cards to win this series before it started and I haven't changed my mind. | |||||||
05-04-16 | Dodgers v. Rays -145 | Top | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Before losing last night, the Rays had won seven straight times against the National League, which was the longest active win streak in Interleague Play. With this being just a short two-game series, the home team has to take advantage of the fact that they avoid both studs in the Dodgers rotation - Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda. I will call for them to salvage a split as LA may have scored 10 runs last night, but that was only after scoring all of 12 the previous seven games combined. I like what I've seen thus far from Rays starter Drew Smyly, despite his 2-3 team start record, as his WHIP is an eye-popping 0.692! That's the best WHIP in all of baseball among qualifiers! Take the Rays. It's pretty astounding that a pitcher could be leading all of baseball in WHIP, yet have a losing team start record. Yet that's where we're at w/ Smyly right now. His first start of the season, admittedly, was not good. But he's allowed three or fewer hits in three of his last four starts while posting a 36-5 KW ratio. Last time out, Smyly was a bit of a hard-luck loser as he gave up just two runs on two hits (both solo HR's) in 6 IP. Keep in mind that he had not allowed any home runs in his previous three starts. Still though, despite the pair of mistakes, 63 of his 99 pitches went for strikes and 15 of those were swings and misses. He'd allowed just one run and seven hits (in 15 IP) his two starts prior, both of which did result in Tampa Bay victories. Smyly will obviously need some run support and I anticipate the Rays offense "turning a corner" tonight after going a woeful 5 of 41 with RISP the L6 games. Scoring five times yday was a "step in the right direction" and they should be able to build off that tonight against Alex Wood, who has an 8.36 ERA and 2.071 WHIP in three road starts. Wood was better his last time out, but that came against light-hitting San Diego at home. He's allowed at least five runs in all three road starts, while never making it past the fifth inning. The Rays haven't been able to do too much damage against left-handed starters so far, but this is arguably the weakest southpaw they will have seen to date. 8* Tampa Bay | |||||||
05-04-16 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -170 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:07 ET): This series is of course a rematch from last year's ALDS which featured one of the great games of 2015 (Bautista bat flip). So far, 2016 has not gone as well for the Blue Jays as 2015 did, but remember they got off to a slow start last season as well. Offense is down for last year's AL East champs, but they did pick up a 3-1 win yday at the Rangers expense. After being held to just four runs in the first two games of this series, don't be surprised if the Blue Jays' bats break out tonight against Colby Lewis, who has been giving up his fair share of baserunners this season (1.452 WHIP). Meanwhile, I like Aaron Sanchez starting for Toronto as he's turned in four quality starts thus far despite a 2-3 TSR. Sanchez turned in his best effort to date on Friday w/ seven scoreless innings of six-hit ball at Tampa Bay. Toronto won that game 6-1. Sanchez did not fare nearly as well his last time starting here at Rogers Centre, but prior to that had given up just 1 ER in each of his first three outings. A key here could be that the Rangers have never faced Sanchez before. The only run Texas scored yday came on a leadoff home run and after that they managed just five hits even with the additional inning. They scored only two runs (but did win) in Monday's series opener, so offense has been virtually non-existent for the road team in this series. The Rangers have been held to four runs or less in 7 of their last 10 ballgames. Now, Toronto had been blanked until the ninth inning yday, which is when Justin Smoak tied the game w/ a HR and then he won it w/ another in the 10th. The team certainly had their chances to score more last night, but was 0 for 9 w/ RISP. History though, looks to be on their side tonight as they face Lewis, who is 3-6 w/ a 6.97 ERA in 11 career starts against the Jays. Lewis hasn't really given up that many runs so far this season, but he's allowed at least six hits in four of his five starts. He also has walked 10 batters in 31 IP. While he didn't walk anyone his last time out, he didn't strike anybody out either. It's only a matter of time before the Blue Jays break out offensively and I feel that time will be tonight! 8* Toronto | |||||||
05-04-16 | Angels -140 v. Brewers | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
8* LA Angels (1:40 ET): The Angels are a team that I'm not particularly high on for 2016, but then again the same could certainly be said for Milwaukee, whom just about everyone expects to be one of the worst teams in all of baseball this season. The Brewers certainly haven't "disappointed" as they have the third worst run differential (-35), ahead of only Atlanta and Cincinnati. That being said, the club has actually now won three straight, including the first two games of this three-game set. But I just can't see them finishing off the sweep and it's probably a great time to "sell high" on the Brew Crew as they send the struggling Zach Davies to the mound. Go with the Angels this afternoon. Davies (8.78 ERA, 2.251 WHIP) has made three starts so far and none of them have been good. He's allowed at least four runs every time out and the longest he's lasted in any outing is six innings. Milwaukee has lost all three games by a combined score of 20-8. Incredibly, opposing hitters are batting .411 against Davies. Almost as bad as that is the fact that in his last time out only 54 of his 92 pitches were strikes. Hector Santiago didn't exactly "light the world on fire" his last time out for the Angels (gave up 4 ER himself), but he still owns a 4-1 team start record and a 1.051 WHIP. Something to make note of is that three of the four runs Santiago allowed last Friday came with two outs in the sixth. He'd been pitching just fine to that point, save for giving up a solo home run. The Angels should have the edge in starting pitching in this one. Last night saw the Angels get off to a hot start (led 4-0) and they finished the game with more hits than the Brewers. That was the second time in the last five games that they lost a game in which they had more hits than their opponent. As a team, they're batting a collective .304 the L7 games, so if Santiago can get them a quality start, they should be in good shape. By the way, Milwaukee has a terrible bullpen, one that sports a 1.694 WHIP. Win streaks should be few and far between for the Brewers this season and I don't see the current one continuing. 8* LA Angels | |||||||
05-03-16 | Phillies v. Cardinals -153 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -153 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): I had the Cardinals yesterday and my reasoning for taking them today will essentially be the same. Yes, the Phillies came into this series riding a six-game win streak (swept both the Nationals and Indians) and actually had a better record compared to St. Louis. But, as I pointed out yesterday, the respective run differentials of these two teams tells a much different story. St. Louis, though only .500 in the standings, actually sports the second best run differential (+41) in all of baseball after yday's 10-3 victory. Meanwhile, that very result dropped Philadelphia's YTD run differential to -23, a strong indicator that this 15-11 record of theirs is a bit of a mirage. Based on those numbers, I expect today's game to go the same way as Monday. The Phillies actually jumped out to a 3-0 lead last night, which had me worried for a bit, but the Cardinals then responded with five home runs en route to a convincing victory. One of those long balls came from the pitcher, Adam Wainwright and the sixth, seventh and eighth spot in the order all homered as well. St. Louis continues to lead the league in offense as they are averaging almost six full runs per game. The massive discrepancy in runs scored between these two ballclubs is something I pointed out in yday's analysis and I'll reiterate it here. The Phillies are bottom five in baseball in runs scored and despite playing the same number of games as the Cardinals (26), they've totaled just a little over half the number of runs (153 vs. 80). That's a very significant gap. I do have to say that while the Phils have certainly overachieved to this point, that hasn't helped starter Aaron Nola, who has a 0.879 WHIP in five starts, yet is only 1-2. Nola did have one bad start (allowed 7 ER vs Washington on 4.16) though and this clearly will be the toughest lineup he's faced to date. St. Louis goes w/ Michael Wacha in this spot and in his two home starts thus far, he's turned in a 0.75 ERA and 1.083 WHIP. He was a bit of a hard luck loser his last time out as he gave up three runs on just five hits, but the offense had a rare "off-night" and "forgot" to score. That shouldn't be the case here. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
05-03-16 | Cubs -186 v. Pirates | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
6* Chi Cubs (7:05 ET): The Cubs are an absolute juggernaut right now as they've raced out to an 18-6 start w/ an even more impressive +83 run differential (which is more than double the 2nd best run diff). It was "more of the same" yday as they beat the Pirates 7-2. When the pitching matchups were announced for this series, more than any other, tonight's stood out to me. I say this because it's a matchup of two pitchers w/ 5-0 TSR's as Jake Arrieta battles Jon Niese. However, as you'll come to find out, not all records are created equally. One pitcher has clearly been better than the other to this point and he happens to be the one working for the better team as well. Stick with the red hot Cubs in this one as the price is more than justified. While Arrieta has a 1.00 ERA and 0.778 WHIP (won all 5 starts), Niese has a 5.08 ERA and 1.483 WHIP (is "only" 3-0). So, clearly, it would be foolish to say that these two are equals even though they have the matching 5-0 team start records. Furthermore, Arrieta (LY's Cy Young winner) is 6-1 w/ a 1.68 ERA all-time vs. Pittsburgh (includes LY's Wild Card Game) while Niese is just 3-6 w/ a 4.76 ERA in his career vs. the Cubs. Arrieta hasn't allowed any runs in three of his five starts to this point, including a no-hitter, while Niese has actually allowed at least four runs in four of his five starts. Without question, Niese is fortunate to be unbeaten at this point as he's received tremendous run support (8.89 runs per start), but that's something that he won't be able to count on here starting opposite Arrieta. Niese, in fact, has give up four times the number of earned runs that Arrieta has despite working 7 2/3 less innings. Over his L3 starts, Arrieta has allowed just one run and eight hits in 22 IP. He's attempting to become just the second pitcher in MLB history to allow three runs or less in 26 consecutive starts. Thirteen times during that stretch, he hasn't allowed a single run. Over his L18 starts, he is an unfathomable 16-0 w/ a 0.69 ERA. You get the picture. Furthermore, Arrieta is working on a 16-inning scoreless streak against the Bucs. This is a total mismatch. 6* Chi Cubs | |||||||
05-02-16 | Rockies v. Padres -116 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show |
10* San Diego (10:10 ET): Though they just swept a series in Arizona, upping their YTD road record to 8-4, I still relish the opportunity to go against the Rockies outside of Coors Field. Particularly when they are in this kind of price range. In what's shaping up to be a wide open National League West, Colorado is actually tied for 1st place, even though they have a .500 record and have been outscored by six runs this season. Before the series in Arizona, the Rockies were -21 in run differential this year and I can't help but think back to the fact this club was a woeful 53-109 on the road the previous two seasons. They've actually been bet to the role of favorite here, something that is quite uncommon. In fact, this team was favored on the money line in only 36 of 162 games last season and almost every time it was at home. So, it's been established that this is a pretty good value that we're getting here on the Padres, or rather just going against the Rockies. Furthermore, note that San Diego has already taken two of three from their division rival this season, those games taking place at Coors Field. The Padres totaled 29 runs in their two victories and while neither of them were against Jon Gray (tonight's starter for Colorado), the opportunity is there to have another big night at the plate. I say that because Gray has an 11.42 ERA and 2.191 WHIP in his two starts so far this season as he's given up 11 runs in just 8 2/3 IP. Last time out, he gave up six in just 3 2/3 as the team fell 9-8 to Pittsburgh. At the time, it was the Rockies' fifth straight loss. San Diego had also lost five in a row heading into their last series, but it ended up being a successful weekend for them at Chavez Ravine as they took two of three from the Dodgers. Both times they won, they were north of +160 on the money line. Sunday's loss was a 1-0 final as they ran into a red-hot Clayton Kershaw, who also provided the game's lone RBI. So Padres pitching remains in good form as they allowed just four runs in that entire series and two runs or fewer in four of the last five games overall. Today's starter James Shields is 0-5 so far, but off his best outing to date as he allowed only one run on three hits in 7 IP vs. the Giants, only to come out on the wrong end of another 1-0 decision. I'm calling for Shields' first victory of the season here as he's been a victim of bad run support thus far, which should change tonight. 10* San Diego | |||||||
05-02-16 | Phillies v. Cardinals -173 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (8:15 ET): This is interesting as it's Philadelphia that comes in on a six-game win streak after sweeping both Washington and Cleveland in its last two series. St. Louis, on the other hand, is reeling after suffering four straight defeats. The last three came here at home against the Nationals, including B2B 6-1 losses. But like Giants-Reds, we have the giant chasm that exists between the have's and have not's in the National League to work with here. I know what the recent form of these two ballcubs says, but YTD run differential tells a much different story as the Phillies are -17 in that department while the Cardinals, despite having a losing record, are actually 4th best in MLB at +34. Regardless of recent form, the Cards are a contender, the Phils are not and with the price having come way down, this is a great opportunity to "buy low" on a somewhat undervalued favorite. On paper, things certainly seem to "set up" well here for the visitors, who are facing the struggling Adam Wainwright and on their longest win streak in four seasons. But the Phils were a pretty lucky team in that series with Cleveland as all three wins were of the one-run variety. They managed only four hits yday and remain bottom five in baseball in runs scored. The starting rotation has been shockingly good to this point, but I'm not sure if I'm buying on any of these guys long-term. Today's starter, Jeremy Hellickson, has a 0.96 ERA and 0.643 WHIP in two road starts thus far. But before tossing seven scoreless innings of two-hit ball his last time out (at Washington), he'd been hit hard in B2B starts, giving up 10 runs and 17 hits in just 7 1/3 IP. In the last three seasons, Hellickson had not been a very good pitcher on the road as his ERA was 5.13 in 36 outings while opponents batted .275 off him. Wainwright, meanwhile, has yet to allow fewer than 3 ER in any start this season for the Cards. But he has had some success in the past against Philly w/ a 2.65 ERA in 10 career starts. I mentioned earlier that the Phillies lineup is really struggling this season (just 3.3 runs/game). Well, St. Louis actually leads all of baseball in offense (5.7 runs/game), so expect Wainwright to get plenty of support here and if that's the case, then the home team wins w/ little difficulty. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
05-02-16 | Giants -149 v. Reds | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (7:10 ET): In previous analysis, I've given my "lay of the land" in the National League where half of the teams are contenders and half aren't. Anytime I can exploit the giant chasm that exists between the two groups, I probably will, at least in this early part of the season. Here it's the Giants w/ Johnny Cueto facing Cueto's old team, the Reds. Cincinnati is off a rare win, 6-5 over Pittsburgh on Sunday (in extra innings), but still holds the worst run differential in all of MLB at -52. San Francisco is only .500 right now (+8 run differential) after salvaging a game Sunday against the Mets. But they clearly remain the better ballclub here and I think the relatively low price range makes a play warranted. Cueto will be the big storyline here as he pitches for the first time as a visitor at Great American Ballpark. Note that in his last three full years as a member of the Reds, Cueto posted a 25-7 WL record when pitching here. That includes a 13-4 mark in 2014 where his ERA was 1.71 and opponents batted just .180 off him. The last time we saw him, he was pitching pretty well in his new ballpark as well, recording 11 K's and delivering a complete-game shutout of the Padres (allowed only seven hits). Cueto's only two road starts so far this year have gone really well too as you can tell from a 1.26 ERA and 0.768 WHIP. Through five starts total, his KW ratio is 33-5. So, I expect Cueto to pitch well tonight, particularly with the Reds lineup batting a collective .205 its last seven games. It took 11 innings for Cincy to finally pick up a win on Sunday, but only after they blew a lead in the seventh, eighth AND ninth frames! That snapped a six-game slide and I'd say the odds of a win streak are pretty minimal considering the offense had scored all of 10 runs in those six losses and never more than three in any one game. Starter Brandon Finnegan, ironically acquired from KC in LY's Cueto trade, has struggled in B2B starts as well. One of those saw him get caught on the wrong end of a 16-0 final, which was the game the Cubs' Jake Arrieta threw his no-hitter. Last time out, Finnegan's control issues continued as he walked three batters in 6 1/3, upping his season total to 15. This should be an easy one for the Giants. 8* San Francisco | |||||||
05-01-16 | Yankees v. Red Sox -158 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:05 ET): The Yankees are simply not a very good team right now. Thus, even though David Price has been struggling thus far for the Red Sox, I anticipate that he will dominate this scuffling lineup. Price was certainly a lot better his last time out where he dominated the lowly Braves with 14 strikeouts while allowing just two runs and six hits over eight innings. Yes, the Braves are bad and a weak-hitting lineup (plus Price benefited from facing the pitcher), but you know what? The Yankees have actually scored one less run this season than the Braves and that's without having to send the pitcher to the plate! Look for Price to shut down MLB's lowest scoring lineup Sunday night. Boston has a +21 run differential right now, which is second in the American League, trailing only Baltimore's +22. They've won six of their last seven and yday's 8-0 victory saw them outhit the Yanks 14-5. It was also the team's third win by at least five runs in the last five games. Meanwhile, New York is headed down a much darker path as they've lost five of six and are -30 in run differential for the season. During the slide, this awful lineup is batting a collective .208 while scoring just nine runs! They've been outhit 40-24 the L4 games. Their numbers at the plate when on the road are predictably dreadful. Considering the Yankees are only 3-7 in games which they face a southpaw starter, things probably aren't going to go well here vs. Price, who has gone 3-0 w/ a 1.71 ERA his last four starts against them overall. The Red Sox have now taken six of the last seven meetings from their main rival and I do not think that sending Nathan Eovaldi to the hill is enough to change the fortune of the guys wearing pinstripes. Eovaldi is coming off his best outing of 2016 to date, but still sports a 4.38 ERA and must contend with a Red Sox lineup that is averaging over six runs per game its last 11 contests while batting a collective .312. With Price on the hill and the current state of the opponent, the Red Sox are way "underpriced" in this one. 8* Boston | |||||||
05-01-16 | White Sox -124 v. Orioles | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
10* Chi White Sox (1:35 ET): Chris Sale, at this price, is simply too good to pass up. The White Sox surprised me a little bit yday when they were able to win a slugfest over the Orioles, 8-7. Strong starting pitching has been their "M.O." to this point and that charge has been led by their ace, Sale, who is 5-0 w/ a 1.66 ERA and a ridiculous 0.684 WHIP. So if the offense is able to produce anywhere near the level of Saturday, they are going to be in line to earn themselves a series split. Baltimore will counter w/ Ubaldo Jimenez and his recent form has basically been the mirror opposite of Sale. It's obviously still really early in the season, but Sale has clearly emerged as the frontrunner for the AL Cy Young. Maybe his strikeout rate has been down a little (32 K's in 38 IP), but the bottom line is he's not giving up any runs. He's allowed just two - one of them unearned - over his L3 starts. He's allowed just 10 baserunners over his L24 IP, which works out to a preposterously good 0.417 WHIP. Opponents are batting just .159 against Sale to this point. He's consistently been able to go deep into games w/ one CG already and last time out he needed only 100 pitched to get through eight innings. He's made it through seven innings in all five starts this year. Then you have Jimenez, who has a 5.06 ERA and 1.750 WHIP his L3 starts. While Sale has issued just five walks in five starts, Jimenez has issued 11 free passes in his last three starts alone. Aside from two starts last season, Jimenez has never fared particularly well against the White Sox w/ a 4.17 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 12 starts. The edition of the Pale Hose happens to be 11-5 on the road thus far, not to mention 7-3 in day games. Both of these teams would qualify as "surprise" division leaders to this point, but Baltimore is the one that I believe in less. With Chicago, you can point to clear strengths (pitching) while with the Orioles, I'm still searching for answers. Look for Sale to remain unbeaten. 10* Chi White Sox | |||||||
04-30-16 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -165 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
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04-30-16 | Reds v. Pirates -197 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
5* Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Something that I will continue to harp on until proven otherwise is that a giant chasm exists between the top and bottom teams in the National League. If you spent any time reading season previews, then you're probably aware that there are seven teams in the Senior Circuit believed to be legit contenders in 2016 (Cubs, Nats, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Cards, Pirates). At the other end of the spectrum, a case can be made that the six worst teams in all of baseball hail from the NL (Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Reds, Rockies, Padres). This chasm is something I'll likely be looking to exploit early in the season or at least until the linesmakers fully catch up. Here, we have the Pirates hosting the Reds. As you might have guessed, the former beat the latter 4-1 last night. It was Pittsburgh's fifth consecutive victory and at the same time Cincinnati's fifth straight loss. The Reds' YTD run differential (-49) is now a MLB worst, so a 9-14 record should actually be dubbed as being fairly fortunate. Believe it or not, Cincy has a winning record against the Bucs the L2 seasons and took two of three in the first series of 2016 (at Great American Ballpark). But I do not envision this weekend going well for the road team and quite frankly a sweep seems likely. The only run that the Reds scored last night came w/ two outs in the top of the ninth. Things figure to not go well again tonight as Alfredo Simon heads to the hill. He has a 15.11 ERA and 2.878 WHIP (three starts) coming into tonight after B2B disastrous outings against the Cubs. After failing to even make it out of the first inning (allowed five runs) on 4.13, Simon then allowed eight runs in 2 2/3 innings on Sunday. He was also the starter when the Reds lost their only game to the Pirates at home. Pittsburgh has homered seven times in last four games while averaging eight runs per game and 12.6 hits its last five. By the way, the Reds are just 1-9 on the road this season while being outscored by 3.6 runs/game. This should be an easy one for Bucs starter Francisco Liriano, who came out on the winning end against Simon back on April 5th. 5* Pittsburgh | |||||||
04-30-16 | Giants v. Mets -178 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show |
8* NY Mets (4:05 ET): On the back of one strong inning, the Mets tattooed the Giants Friday night, winning 13-1 with all but one of those runs coming in a stunning third inning explosion. The reigning Senior Circuit champs are a hot team right now as they've won seven in a row and have MLB's third best run differential (+40), trailing only the Cubs and Cardinals. While I often preach to "buy low, sell high," the fact is that things get no easier for San Francisco today as they go up against the well-rested Jacob deGrom. Even worse is that they will be sending the struggling Matt Cain (last win came all the way back on 7.22) to the bump. I'm not getting in front of this runaway Mets' train right now; in fact I'm jumping on it. DeGrom has made only two starts due to both a muscle strain and a health issue w/ his newborn son. After going more than two weeks between starts, deGrom showed no ill-effects from the long layoff by going 5 2/3 innings and allowing just one run to Atlanta on Sunday. Now, you could point out that deGrom has gotten to face both the Braves and Phillies (NL's two lowest scoring offenses) so far. That's certainly fair. But deGrom is 2-0 lifetime vs. SF w/ a 1.17 ERA. In his one start against them last season, he went eight innings, allowing only two hits and striking out 10. That was in San Fran and history suggests he should be even more dominant tonight. His 1.86 ERA in 26 career starts at Citi Field is the lowest home ERA of any Mets pitcher in history w/ at least 169 IP. As mentioned earlier, the Giants will counter w/ Cain, who has gone 0-5 w/ a 6.64 ERA his L11 starts overall. He allowed a season-worst 10 hits on Sunday against the Marlins as for a third straight time he failed to make it through a full six innings. Now he must face a Mets lineup that is batting an impressive .289 its last 14 games with 29 home runs and a 5.9 runs per game scoring average. As for bouncing back from a performance like yday's, note that San Francisco is 0-2 this season after allowing 10+ runs and 5-8 in that role the L3 seasons. 8* NY Mets | |||||||
04-29-16 | Royals v. Mariners -160 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
8* Seattle (10:10 ET): The Mariners have a nice advantage coming into tonight's series opener and it's name is Felix Hernandez, who will be toeing the rubber for them. King Felix, somehow stuck with a 1-3 team start record, still is sporting 1.80 ERA and 1.160 WHIP. Despite the relatively high walk rate, I expect him to handle his business here against a Royals team that just got swept down in Los Angeles. You might be surprised to learn that Seattle has been the better ballclub compared to Kansas City so far, at least according to run differential (+17 to +3) and then there's the fact they have a winning record against the Royals the previous two seasons (where KC has made B2B World Series appearances). Go with the M's. Hernandez has only gotten to pitch one time at Safeco Field in 2016 and that outing saw him deliver seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball w/ 10 K's against Oakland. Sadly, Seattle still lost the game 2-1. In fact, the offense has yet to score more than three runs in any of Hernandez's starts this year. Despite that, the fact they are still 12-10 is actually kind of encouraging as they've actually outscored opponents by 20 runs while going 11-7 in non-Hernandez starts. You have to figure that King Felix will turn things around and tonight is a good place to start. The Royals have lost five consecutive road games while scoring only 12 total runs. Aiding the Seattle offense here will be facing Kris Medlen, who was a disaster his last time out as he gave up seven runs in just 3 2/3 innings of work in what ended up being a 7-3 loss for his team. I can't see Medlen standing in there and going toe to toe with Hernandez, who has not allowed more than three runs in any start. Medlen will have to contend here with the surging Robinson Cano, who has eight home runs and 24 RBI's thus far, both personal bests for April. Two of Seattle's losses with Hernandez on the mound came by one run, both seeing him not allow an earned run. Last time, he allowed all three runs on two mistakes (both home runs). His "luck" is due to turn and the fact is this is a very fair price range. 8* Seattle | |||||||
04-29-16 | Yankees -111 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -111 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* NY Yankees (7:10 ET): Right off the bat, the Yanks have a little bit of an advantage over the rival Red Sox coming into tonight's series opener. They had Thursday off while Boston had to play and lost to the lowly Braves, 5-3. That loss snapped a four-game win streak for Beantown and it's tough to like their chances here considering they're on the wrong end of what appears to be a pretty giant pitching mismatch. Boston sends Henry Owens to the bump and he's coming off a poor first start to the season. New York counters with Masahiro Tanaka, who has a 0.973 WHIP in his four starts, the last three of which have resulted in wins for the team. I'm on the Pinstripes here. The Yankees probably were happy to have yday off considering they dropped B2B games in Texas the two days prior. The scuffling offense (just 10 runs scored last five games) has been a problem and is a major reason why this team currently finds itself in the AL East basement. However, Tanaka can counteract that as he's yet to allow more than 3 ER in any start this season and in his last two he's gone seven innings both times, posting an outstanding 13-1 KW ratio. Tanaka has had his share of difficulties in the past vs. the Red Sox, but one thing to consider is that the Yankees have accounted quite well for themselves here at Fenway the last two seasons, winning 11 of 14 games. Though Boston ultimately won the game (7-5 at Houston) last Sunday night (I was on them!), that wasn't owed to Owens, who was hit hard. He gave up three runs in only 3 1/3 IP and walked four batters as well. So the Sox were definitely a bit lucky to walk away from that one w/ a win and I certainly didn't like what I saw from Owens there. I also haven't liked what I've seen in the past from Owens against the Yankees as he's allowed 10 runs on 11 hits in just 6 2/3 innings of work. That's over two starts and both times he went up against Tanaka and lost. The combined score of those two games was 26-11 in favor of NY. The third time will not be the charm for Owens. 10* NY Yankees | |||||||
04-28-16 | Marlins v. Dodgers -130 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
10* LA Dodgers (10:10 ET): Miami has come into Chavez Ravine and taken the first two games of this three-game set from the still-NL West leading Dodgers. That includes an absolute stunner against Clayton Kershaw (Marlins were +255 on the money line!) in the series opener. But it all changes tonight as they get set to face Kenta Maeda, who has been the best pitcher in the Dodgers' rotation thus far. Now, Miami does counter w/ Jose Fernandez, but his numbers simply don't compare to Maeda's and keep in mind this is a road game. For those who haven't followed Fernandez's career as closely, he is a far more effective pitcher at home than on the road. Look for the Dodgers to avoid the sweep. In four starts, Maeda has a 0.36 ERA and 0.869 WHIP. We're talking Jake Arrieta territory with those numbers. Only Detroit's Jordan Zimmerman has a better ERA (in all of baseball) right now as Maeda has allowed a grand total of ONE run in his four starts, which have spanned 25 1/3 innings. His last time out he pitched at Coors Field and delivered six-plus scoreless innings of three-hit ball. The only run Maeda has allowed came on a solo home run. So the Marlins offense isn't likely to get many chances tonight and keep in mind they only scored two runs yday. Opponents are batting just .189 against Maeda, who is allowing an on base percentage of .240. Just spectacular. The Dodgers are typically very strong off a loss, going 92-57 in that role the last three seasons. That includes a 12-5 record if they happened to be shutout in the previous game. Fernandez allowed four runs his last time out in a loss at San Francisco and has now walked 10 batters in his L3 starts overall. He comes in w/ a 4.37 ERA. While he's 18-1 at home in his career, his road record is just 5-10 w/ an ERA that's over two full points higher. Despite losing the last two games, the Dodgers are still +17 in run differential. 10* LA Dodgers | |||||||
04-28-16 | Braves v. Red Sox -190 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -190 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
5* Boston (7:10 ET): After (not surprisingly) taking the two games in Atlanta, the Red Sox beat the Braves here at Fenway yesterday by a score of 9-4. I see no reason why the better team won't be able to complete the sweep here of this four-game Interleague set. Last night's loss was the eighth straight for Atlanta, who was widely expected to be the worst team in baseball this season. They currently stand at 4-17 with a run differential of -44. So, yeah, they're not a very good ball club. That's the worst won-loss record in MLB and only Cincinnati (-46) is worse in run differential. This series was "just what the doctor ordered" for Boston. While the starting staff for the Red Sox still has plenty of room to improve, one area that they have been fantastic in is striking opposing hitters out. Accoring to Elias (Sports Bureau), their 220 K's through 21 games is a Major League record. They have 34 in this series alone. Getting the baseball tonight will be Clay Buchholz, who has allowed exactly 5 ER in three of his four starts to this point. But he did strike out a season-high six batters his last time out and I'm going to go ahead and call for this to be a quality start. His last time pitching here at Fenway saw him toss 6 2/3 scoreless innings and that was against a Toronto lineup that is generally regarded as the most formidable in the sport. Atlanta would be at the opposite end of the spectrum as they come into tonight tied (w/ Philadelphia) for the fewest runs scored in all of baseball. All of the Braves' wins this season came in one-win streak. Otherwise, they are an unconscionable 1-15 off a loss. They've been outscored 21-8 in the three games vs. Boston and I don't see Jhoulys Chacin being able to turn the tide. He's allowed a total of seven runs in his last 6 2/3 innings of work. Remember that the Red Sox lineup is now tougher with the games taking place at home because they get to use the DH. As for Atlanta's offense, they have a combined FOUR home runs/triples so far this season. They are a team that is going to lose a LOT of ballgames in 2016. 5* Boston | |||||||
04-27-16 | Royals v. Angels -117 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* LA Angels (10:05 ET): The Angels, who I'm admittedly not very high on this year, have a chance to sweep the reigning World Series Champs here at home and I think they're going to do it. It's been a pair of pretty dominant victories so far in the series, 6-1 and 9-4, with a 22-13 edge in hits and I certainly believe the pitching matchup is in the Halos favor tonight. While they've certainly enjoyed a ton of success the last two seasons (B2B World Series appearances!), the Royals have also had their fair share of good luck and I've never been as high on them as others have been. The last time Nick Tropeano pitched for the Angels, I took the Under. It was a game against Seattle and he was supposed to face Felix Hernandez, but King Felix was a late scratch and it ended up being Hisashi Iwakuma going for the Mariners. No matter, the game was 2-2 after nine innings and I still cashed by Under bet (7.5) despite a three-run 10th from Seattle. Tropeano obviously didn't factor into the decision there, but he certainly did his job, allowing only two runs in 5+ IP. He did walk four batters, but consider that equaled the number of free passes he'd issued in his first two starts combined. Overall, it's been an excellent start to the season for Tropeano, who has a 1.69 ERA through three starts. Giving up the long ball is something you don't have to worry about with him as in his career (75 1/3 innings), he's allowed just two home runs and both were solo shots. Kansas City will be sending veteran Chris Young to the bump here and his numbers won't exactly inspire a ton of confidence for his team. In four starts, Young has a 6.41 ERA and 1.627 WHIP and on the road is where things have been real ugly (10.38 ERA, 2.422 WHIP). He's coming off his strongest outing to date (vs. Baltimore), but I simply don't see a repeat of that taking place here. Consider that his 10 strikeouts against the Orioles marked the first time in EIGHT SEASONS that he posted that many K's in a start. The offense had more doubles (6) than runs (4) yday, but is hitting only .211 collectively its last four road games (all losses). 10* LA Angels | |||||||
04-27-16 | Indians +104 v. Twins | Top | 6-5 | Win | 104 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
9* Cleveland (8:10 ET): Whoa. Wrong team favored here as despite B2B (one-run) victories in this series, the Twins remain fully entrenched in the AL Central cellar at 7-14 w/ a -19 run differential. Cleveland, expected to be a big player in the American League this season, came into this series riding high off a three-game sweep of Detroit. They've outscored opponents by seven runs so far and I'm not sure what the oddsmakers are thinking here given tonight's pitching matchup. The Indians have lost in the final at-bat each of the first two games here in the Twin Cities, so we easily could be looking at a much different series coming into the finale. But beecause the Twins won both games, we are now able to grab the better team (Cleveland) at a very favorable price. Cleveland's rotation took a bit of hit with the Carlos Carrasco injury, but there are still plenty of quality arms on hand here. One is tonight's starter Josh Tomlin, who has won both of his starts to the point thanks to a 1.54 ERA and 0.771 WHIP. He's allowed just two runs and eight hits in 11 2/3 innings thus far with a 10-1 KW ratio. The Minnesota lineup that Tomlin faces tonight is hardly a formidable one. They average only 3.4 runs per game this season and are bottom 10 in slugging as well. The Twins matched a season-high w/ 14 hits last night (had only 5 in the series opener), so I expect a sharp decrease in production here. While Tomlin has had his share of struggles vs. this opponent, he seems to be a much better pitcher so far in 2016. The big story here for Minnesota is that Jose Berrios makes his big league debut. Berrios has been called into duty earlier than anticipated due to injuries to the front end of the Twins' rotation. Granted, he brings with him a lot of promise, but I'm not sure this is a great spot for the 21-year old. Cleveland averages 4.7 rpg on the road and 5.6 against right-handed starters. The Tribe has also yet to lose three straight games this season. Minnesota is a team that was favored in less than a quarter of its games last season (why they turned such a big profit), so the price here definitely "raises eyebrows" as I call it a rare mistake from the linesmakers. 9* Cleveland | |||||||
04-27-16 | Padres v. Giants -175 | Top | 9-13 | Win | 100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (3:45 ET): While it's been "just" a pair of one-run victories thus far (won 1-0 Tuesday), the Giants have a chance to sweep the struggling Padres right out of town this afternoon and they have my endorsement. In what will be a common theme in handicapping National League matchups this season, this series pits one of the supposed "haves" against one of the supposed "have nots." Coming into the year, there were seven teams in the Senior Circuit (Cubs, Nats, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Cards, Pirates) perceived to be playoff contenders while there's a good chance that the six worst teams in baseball all end up hailing from the NL (Phils, Braves, Reds, Brewers, Rockies, Padres). Anytime you find a matchup of teams from the two disparate groups, you need to exploit it, especially if the money line is this "low." We know that the Giants bullpen won't be taxed at all here because last night's starter Johnny Cueto went the distance (on 119 pitches) w/ 11 strikeouts. With the quick turnaround between games, having a fresh bullpen is a big advantage for a Giants team that has beaten the Padres seven straight times dating back to last season. Meanwhile, San Diego's bullpen has had to work a total of eight innings the L3 games. Based on run differential, we can ascertain that the Giants have "underachieved" a bit this season. Despite being only .500 (11-11) in the standings, they have outscored opponents by 12 runs this year. So, a sweep here clearly would not be surprising as they continue to get "back on track." Losers of four straight, San Diego currently has a run differential of -31, tied for fourth worst in baseball. They are, in fact, a very bad ballclub. Another big disadvantage for the Padres in this game is that it takes place in the daytime where they are just 41-61 the L3 seasons. Incredibly, last night marked the fifth time they've been shut out this season already. They send Andrew Cashner to the bump today, but his 4.29 ERA and 1.238 WHIP aren't exactly inspiring and he's 0-4 all-time here at AT&T Park w/ a 6.91 ERA. The Giants counter w/ Jeff Samardzija, who is coming off a very strong showing in his home debut (allowed 1 ER in 7 2/3 IP) and has a 2.76 ERA in six career starts vs. San Diego. Big time advantage for the Giants in this one. 8* San Francisco. | |||||||
04-26-16 | Cardinals -138 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
8* St. Louis (9:40 ET): The Cardinals lost last night's series opener in Arizona and that has to leave them at least a little bit frustrated as they ended up scoring seven runs in a game Zack Greinke started. Unfortunately, "you can do the math," and they ended up allowing 12 runs, nine of those coming in one fateful inning. That one was on the St. Louis bullpen, a little uncharacteristic, as that group had been performing just fine in the early part of the season. The Redbirds come into tonight's game w/ a 10-9 record, but a run differential (+35) that's second best in all of baseball (trailing only the Cubs). Tonight's pitching matchup seems heavily slanted in their favor. Go with the road team in this one. Carlos Martinez has opened 3-0 for the Cards in 2016, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. That's a "far cry" from the numbers we've seen so far from Arizona's starter, Shelby Miller, who like fellow free agent acquisition Greinke has struggled mightily. Miller has an 8.59 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in four starts, which are terrible numbers and he's failed to make it past the second inning in each of his last two starts. His walk rate has more than doubled from last season (3.20 to 6.75 per nine innings) and consider he's walked eight batters in just 3 2/3 IP his last two times out. In his first two starts here at Chase Field, Miller allowed a total of 10 runs in 11 innings. Last year, Miller could pin his poor TSR on the team (Atlanta), this year he is to blame. Martinez has gotten plenty of run support so far from the Cardinals bats (6.0 runs per game), not that he's needed it, however. All three starts have been quality and in his last time out, he held the Cubs to just one run and three hits over seven innings. Over the last three seasons, the Cards have gone a remarkable 90-54 off a loss and they were also a perfect 7-0 last season vs. the D'backs (12-2 against them L3 seasons). In two career starts vs. Arizona, Martinez has a 2.08 ERA, so I look for him to slow their offense down. 8* St. Louis | |||||||
04-26-16 | Red Sox -170 v. Braves | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 21 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:10 ET): When they decided to pay him $217 million over the course of the next seven years, the Red Sox clearly weren't expecting to see a 7.06 ERA next to David Price's name after four starts. Price was rocked his last time out, giving up eight runs (on eight hits) in just 3 2/3 IP. Two of the four starts have been good, however, as he allowed only 2 ER over six and seven innings respectively against Cleveland and Toronto w/ a 19-2 KW ratio. Having alternated good and bad starts so far, it's "time" for a good one here from Price and fortunately he has the right opponent, that being the woeful Braves, who were shutout yday as they fell to 4-15 on the season. Look for Price to mow down one of the weaker National League lineups. Atlanta, as expected, is one of the worst teams in all of baseball. They sport MLB's worst record and only fellow Senior Circuit bottom-feeders Milwaukee and Cincinnati have worse run differentials than the Braves -26. Like I just said earlier, they were shut out yday, losing 1-0 as they finished the game with only four hits. Also, their homer-less streak reached 14 straight games. This is an offense scoring just 3.2 rpg while batting .227 and they have an OBP below .300 (.293). They are last in MLB in runs scored, slugging and OPS. This all has to be "music to the ears" of Price, who has faced Atlanta three times previously and has never allowed more than two runs (1.89 ERA). This will be the weakest Braves team he's ever faced. Also, what is really frustrating for Atlanta is that they wasted their own strong pitching performance last night. It is highly unlikely that they will allow only one run again here, even though the Red Sox lineup is w/o the DH spot in the order (that means no David Ortiz). But the Boston bats came into this series batting a collective .340 while scoring an average of 6.2 rpg and Braves starter Matt Wisler did not do well last year against American League lineups (4.24 ERA in three starts). This should be another easy one for the road team. 8* Boston |
Service | Profit |
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William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |