Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-25-18 | Appalachian State -7.5 v. Georgia Southern | 14-34 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 23 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Appalachian State (8*) Both teams have been hot, but I think the combination of App State’s offense and defense will be just too much for the Eagles to handle tonight. App State has scored at least 35 points in every game prior to its win this last weekend over the Ragin Cajun, while also holding four straight opponents previous to Arkansas State to just single digits in scoring. Georgia Southern is fifth in the country in rushing with 276.6 per contest, but overall the offense is averaging a woeful 352.4 YPG. That’s not going to cut it against the high-flying Mountaineers this weekend. Note that the Eagles are just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games against teams with winning road records, while App State is 5-0 ATS in its last five on the road. T.M. Prediction: 35-23 Mountaineers. | |||||||
10-25-18 | Blazers v. Magic +3 | Top | 128-114 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Orlando Magic (10* MONEY-MAKER) After impressive back-to-back wins to open at home, the Blazers fell hard in a 125-124 OT setback to Washington on Monday. This is the first game on an extended road trip for the Blazers though and with a game in Miami on Saturday night, I absolutely believe that the visitors are going to predictably get caught “flat footed” here. Orlando on the other hand comes in off a confidence building 93-90 road win at Boston and there’s no reason not to think that the team won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. Note as well that Portland is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games following a two games or more break. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 115-114 Magic. | |||||||
10-25-18 | Toledo +5 v. Western Michigan | 51-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Toledo (8*) Toledo looks to get back on track after a 31-17 home loss to Buffalo, while WMU enters off a 35-10 road win over CMU in its previous action. The Rockets are averaging 39.3 PPG and they’re allowing 34.3. QB Eli ethers has a 6/2 TD:INT, while Michell Guadagni has an 11/3 TD:INT. WMU is averaging 36.4 PPG and it’s allowing 28.4. QB Jon Wassink has been decent with a 16/6 TD:INT. I’ll point out though that the Broncos are just 7-9 ATS in their last 16 off a win against a conference rival and only 7-8 ATS In their last 15 at home. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 37-31 Rockets. | |||||||
10-25-18 | Ball State +11 v. Ohio | 14-52 | Loss | -123 | 97 h 54 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (8*) Ball State is 2-2 after losing to EMU 42-20 most recently, while Ohio is 2-1 in the MAC after destroying Bowling Green 49-14 in its most recent action. The Cardinals are averaging 25 PPG and they’re ranked 82nd in the country on the defensive side. Ball State QB Riley Neal has 1,841 passing yards and a decent 10:4 TD/INT. Ohio is averaging 36.3 PPG and it’s allowing 31. QB Nathan Rourke had four TD passes against the lowly Green Falcons last week, but note that Ohio is a poor 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Ball State is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the same range. I’m expecting a much tighter battle than what this spread would suggest, so grab the points! T.M. Prediction: 34-30 Ohio. | |||||||
10-24-18 | Knicks v. Heat -8 | 87-110 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Miami Heat (9* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I think the under-manned Knicks will stumble in this difficult road venue. New York opened the year with a convincing win over the lowly Hawks, but the Knicks have since lost four straight and with a date at home against the defending champs on Friday night, I do absolutely expect the visitors to get caught “looking ahead.” The Heat have had three whole nights off to absorb a 113-112 loss at home to Charlotte and they’ll be out to take advantage here after a lacklustre 1-2 start to the season. Lay the points and expect a rout. T.M. Prediction: 120-104 Heat. | |||||||
10-24-18 | Nets v. Cavs -3 | Top | 102-86 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Cavaliers (10* TRADE-MARK). Just a common sense play more than anything. Clearly the Cavs were going to have to go through some growing pains without “The King” in the line-up, but an 0-3 start, including a blowout loss at home to the lowly Hawks at home last time out is clearly not what Cleveland thought it would have to deal with at this point so early in the season. It’s going to be all hands on deck for Cleveland today as it looks to break the slide. The Nets are 1-2 and have looked more competitive, but I think they’re in the “wrong place at the wrong time” tonight. Note that the Nets are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as a road dog in the +2.5 to +5.5 points range. T.M. Prediction: 118-110 Cavs. | |||||||
10-23-18 | Clippers v. Pelicans -7 | Top | 109-116 | Push | 0 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New Orleans Pelicans (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Pelicans are 2-0 SU/ATS and I’m not expecting any sort of a letdown here or anything. With two nights off before another game at home against the Nets, the Pelicans can come into this one focused on the task at hand. The Clippers on the other hand lost 107-98 in Denver on Opening night, but it’s since won back-to-back games over OKC and Houston. But with the rematch in Houston at the end of the week, it’s not too difficult to imagine the visitors also getting caught “looking ahead” here. Additionally note that the Pelicans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after scoring 140 points or more in their previous outing. T.M. Prediction: 124-108 Pelicans. | |||||||
10-23-18 | Troy v. South Alabama +11 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -100 | 50 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: South Alabama (10* MONEY-MAKER) Troy has been pretty good, it’s averaging 33.7 PPG and it’s allowing only 24.6. Conversely South Alabama is averaging 25.7 PPG and allowing 39.3. But the Trojans’ offense has suffered a major blow as starting QB Kaleb Barker has been lost for the season to injury. The Trojans come in off a surprising 22-16 road loss to Liberty in which backup QB Sawyer Smith had 135 passing yards with one TD and one INT. Jaguars’ QB Evan Orth has 1,366 passing yards an a decent 7:3 TD/INT. Note as well that Troy is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after scoring 17 points or less in its previous contest. No outright, but closer than expected. T.M. Prediction: 30-24 Troy. | |||||||
10-21-18 | Cowboys v. Redskins | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 127 h 41 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Redskins (9* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Both teams come in a 3-3, but I think the Redskins are going to find a way to get the job done at home today. Dallas enters off a 40-7 win over Jacksonville at home, as RB Ezekiel Elliot had 106 yards and a TD, while Dak Prescott had 183 passing yards and two TD’s. The defense looked good against an impotent Jags’ attack, but I think the unit will have its hands full today in this difficult road venue. Washington’ QB Alex Smith had 163 yards and two TD’s with no INT’s in last weeks’ 23-17 win over a difficult Carolina team. Note that Dallas is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while Washington is already 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog. T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Washington. | |||||||
10-21-18 | Patriots -3 v. Bears | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New England Patriots (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Patriots come in off a huge victory over the Chiefs on Sunday night and I think Tom Brady and company will carry that momentum over here. The Bears on the other hand come in off a terrible home loss to a Miami team which was led by Brock Osweiler. And that doesn’t bode well facing Brady, who had 340 yards and a TD in last week’s shootout win over KC. Pats’ rookie RB Sony Michel had a huge game as well, finishing with 106 yards and two TD’s. With Julian Edelman back in the line-up, the Patriots’ offense is finally rounding into form. The Pats looked terrible defensively last week, but facing Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs is one thing and facing Mitch Trubisky and the Bears is obviously quite another. Note that Chicago is just 1-3-1 ATS in it last five after allowing 150 rushing yards in its previous game, while New England is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 following an ATS loss. T.M. Prediction: 30-20 Patriots. | |||||||
10-21-18 | Browns +3.5 v. Bucs | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 123 h 17 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Browns (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) I think the Bucs will be a popular pick here with many, but I don’t think that the defensive coordinator change for Tampa is going to change too much on that side of the ball in such a short time. And that leaves the door open for Baker Mayfield and company, who will clearly be given the green light to air it out early and often. The Browns are once again going through a transition on the offensive side of the ball, but the defense and special teams remains decent and I think they’ll help keep the hungry visiting side in this game late. Remember, a week before last week’s 34-29 loss to Atlanta, the Bucs allowed six passing TD’s to the Bears’ Mitchell Trubisky. Note that Cleveland is already 2-0 ATS this year as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Tampa Bay is only 8-10 ATS in its last 18 at home. T.M. Prediction: 27-25 Cleveland. | |||||||
10-20-18 | Central Florida v. East Carolina +21 | Top | 37-10 | Loss | -108 | 128 h 38 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: East Carolina (10* GAME OF MONTH) UCF is 5-0, most recently holding on for a tight 31-30 win over Memphis. ECU is just 1-3 in its last four after having its ass handed to it by Houston last weekend. The Pirates are desperate and I don’t think they’ll go down this weekend without a fight. I’m not predicting an outright upset or anything, but I do definitely believe that the stage is set for a a much tighter battle than what this large spread would suggest. The Knights are scoring a lot of points, but I think they get caught “looking past” their opponent tonight. Note that ECU starts a new QB in Holton Ahlers, who led ECU to a pair of fourth-quarter TD’s, finishing 137 yards, one TD and no INT. Note that ECU is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while UCF is already 0-2 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival. T.M. Prediction: 40-25 UCF. | |||||||
10-20-18 | Penn State -14 v. Indiana | 33-28 | Loss | -109 | 124 h 19 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Penn State (8*) Penn State will be eager to get back on track here after dropping its second straight, most recently a 21-17 setback to Michigan State on Saturday. Indiana also dropped its second straight in a 42-16 setback at home to Iowa. Penn State comes in averaging 44.2 PPG and allowing only 21. QB Trace McSorley has a sharp 11:2 TD/INT. Indiana averages only 26.1 PPG and it allows 28.1. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. The Hoosiers allowed Iowa QB Nathan Stanley to throw for 320 yards and six TD’s. Note that Indiana is 0-7 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss and 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 40 points. T.M. Prediction: 40-21 Nittany Lions. | |||||||
10-20-18 | Houston -12.5 v. Navy | 49-36 | Win | 100 | 124 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Houston (8*) Houston comes in on top form, having won three straight, most recently a convincing 42-20 win over ECU on the road last Saturday. Navy on the other hand has zero momentum, it dropped its third in a row in a 24-17 home loss to Temple last weekend. Houston is averaging 48.7 PPG (ranked 3rd) and allowing only 28. QB D’Eriq King has 1,571 passing yards to go along with 20 TD’s, three INT’s and 225 rushing yards and eight more TD’s on the ground. The Mids are averaging only 28 PPG and they’re allowing 31.8. Clearly that’s not a recipe for long-term success. Note as well that Navy is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four after posting more than 170 passing yards in its previous game, while Houston is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a losing home record. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 41-20 Houston. | |||||||
10-20-18 | UL-Lafayette +24 v. Appalachian State | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 124 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Lafayette (8*) The Ragin’ Cajuns broke a three-game slide with a win over New Mexico State and they’re going to have their hands full here with an App State team which hasn’t lost since an Opening Day setback to Penn State. The Mountaineers are averaging 48.8 PPG, but I think they’re going to get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent today. Lafayette’ QB Andre Nunez finished with 315 passing yards and five TD’s last week and I think the senior QB carries that momentum over here. Note though that Lafayette is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 on the road and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records, while App State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. T.M. Prediction: 40-30 App State. | |||||||
10-20-18 | North Carolina v. Syracuse -10.5 | Top | 37-40 | Loss | -102 | 121 h 60 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Syracuse (10* BLOWOUT GAME OF YEAR) The Tar Heels come in off a 22-19 loss to Virginia Tech, while Syracuse comes in focused and rested off its bye week. Previous to that the Orange fell 44-37 in OT at Pittsburgh. UNC though is averaging only 20.6 PPG, while allowing 33.8. QB Nathan Elliot has underwhelmed with 920 yards passing and a poor 4:4 TD/INT. The Orange average 43 PPG and they allow only 25.2. QB Eric Dungey has 1,208 yards with ten TD’s and four INT’s. Note that Syracuse is 3-0-1 ATS In its last four games on field turf, while the Tar Heels are just 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position. T.M. Prediction: 45-25 Orange. | |||||||
10-19-18 | Colorado State v. Boise State -23 | Top | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 124 h 1 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boise State (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Colorado State comes in off a 20-17 home win over New Mexico, while Boise State posted a 31-27 road victory over Nevada. The Rams are averaging only 24.6 PPG still, while allowing 35.1. Their passing game is ranked 20th in the country, but the run game has been anemic. Boise State is averaging 36.2 PPG and it’s allowing only 21.8. QB Brett Rypien had 299 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s victory. Note that Colorado State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six though after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Boise State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records. T.M. Prediction: 50-13 Boise State. | |||||||
10-19-18 | Kings +11 v. Pelicans | 129-149 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Kings (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) The Pelicans come in off a big upset win over the Rockets on the road and I think they’re going to suffer a predictable letdown here. Sacramento on the other let a big lead slip away in a 123-117 setback to Utah. With a tough game at OKC on Sunday, the Kings can’t leave anything to chance here. We definitely DO NOT have to question the visitors focus here in my opinion. Note as well that New Orleans is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games a favorite of ten points or more. T.M. Prediction: 115-110 New Orleans. | |||||||
10-18-18 | Lakers +1 v. Blazers | Top | 119-128 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 10 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Lakers (10* GAME OF MONTH) Clearly it’s a big game for both teams. On Opening night, almost anything can happen. The oddsmakers are expecting a tightly contested affair, and I’m expecting the same thing. The cast of characters are well known for both sides, but LA’s LeBron James is going to be a man on a mission this year. Portland struggled with consistency and I think it’ll have its hands full with the new look LA line-up. Look for James to kick off his new era with a convincing victory. T.M. Prediction: 112-108 Lakers. | |||||||
10-18-18 | Stanford v. Arizona State +3 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 3 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona State (10* GAME OF WEEK) Stanford’s lost two straight. RB Bryce love is expected back in the line-up after missing the last two games, but one has to wonder how the Cardinal’ star RB’s form is at the moment? Note that Stanford has already been held to 21 points or fewer on three occasions already this year. ASU also enters off its bye, timely as QB Manny Wilkins suffered a minor injury in the 28-21 loss to Colorado: “I got a little rest; I was really eager (to be back),” Wilkins assured. “When you don’t play for a week, and I’m in my senior season…. I got here [Sunday] morning and I was smiling. It was like I had a mini-offseason. I’m ready to get back in here and finish this thing off with my guys.” Note that ASU is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 7-3 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records, while Stanford is interestingly 0-3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 ASU. | |||||||
10-17-18 | Nuggets +1 v. Clippers | Top | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 31 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Denver Nuggets (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Both teams missed the playoffs last year. LA took two of three from Denver, but LA lost a great deal in the off-season, while Denver improved dramatically. Frankly, I’m expecting a blowout from start to finish for the visitors. Last season the Nuggets averaged 110 PPG and allowed 108.5. The Clippers averaged 109 points and they allowed 109 points last year. DeAndre Jordan left LA though and the Clippers also lost Austin Rivers (trade for Marcin Gortat.) Lou Williams won’t be able to win this one by himself. I look for the much deeper visiting side to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover down the stretch. T.M. Prediction: 115-110 Denver. | |||||||
10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics -5 | Top | 87-105 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Boston Celtics (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) The 76ers got knocked out of the second round of the playoffs by the Celtics last year and I expect Boston to get the job done here as well. Philadelphia averaged 109.8 PPG las season and it allowed 105.3. The Celtics averaged 104 PPG and they allowed 100.4. Both teams are stacked with talent, but note that Boston is 5-1 ATS in its last six against the Atlantic. These two teams will both be in the playoffs next year, but on Opening night, expect a home side blowout! T.M. Prediction: 110-98 C’s. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 40-43 | Win | 100 | 156 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Kansas City Chiefs (10* TRADE-MARK) I’m banking on Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs offense to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and I don’t think that Tom Brady and the Pats will be able to match pace. KC enters off a convincing 30-14 win over Jacksonville. The Pats started off 1-2, but they come in off back-to-back victories, including a 38-24 win over the Colts most recently. With a chance to grab top spot in the AFC with a win tonight, I think the visitors will push the home side to the brink. The numbers support us as well, as note that IC is a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. T.M. Prediction: 30-25 KC. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans +2.5 | 21-0 | Loss | -100 | 152 h 2 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tennessee Titans (9* BANKROLL BUILDER) Both teams come in off losses. Baltimore fell 12-9 in OT on the road in Cleveland and I think it struggles again away from friendly confines. The Titans return home off a 13-12 road loss in Buffalo. A little home cooking is what the doctor ordered to get back on track though, as Tennessee took this matchup here last November, 23-20. The Ravens numbers are skewed a bit because of a couple of big games to open the year, but they’ve been consistently sliding backwards since. Tennessee is struggling to put points on the board, but it’s defense has been excellent thus far, conceding just 17.2 PPG. I think Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota and the offense response finally in this crucial game. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-20 Titans. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Rams v. Broncos +7 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 152 h 46 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Denver Broncos (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) LA went on the road and beat the Seahawks 33-31 last weekend. It was a tougher than expected battle and LA enters this non-conference road game with a perfect record thus far. Denver on the other hand returns to Mile High off a humbling 34-16 setback on the road to the Jets. I think this one sets up great for the home side from a situational stand point. It’s difficult to win on the road in the NFL, let alone cover a spread. LA ran out of gas last week and I expect it to have its hands full today with a Denver team that will be out to push the pace and atone for last week’s pathetic effort. Note that Denver is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 after allowing 30 or more points in its previous contest, while LA is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 after posting more than 350 total yards in its previous game. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Rams. | |||||||
10-14-18 | Cardinals +10.5 v. Vikings | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 149 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arizona Cardinals (10* DOG OF THE YEAR) Arizona comes in confident after its 28-18 road win over San Francisco last weekend. The Vikes have been “hit or miss” this year and I believe they’re poised for a letdown after last week’s difficult 23-21 victory over the Eagles. The Cards offense has been terrible this year (last in many statistical offensive categories), but the unit took a big step in the right direction last week. The Arizona defense though has been solid, last week holding the 49ers to 18 points and the Seahawks to just 20 the week before that. So that doesn’t bode well for Minnesota, which is averaging only 22.6 PPG. The defense is a shell of its former self as well, allowing 26.2 PPG this year. I think this one will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. T.M. Prediction: 21-17 Vikes. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Wyoming +19.5 v. Fresno State | Top | 3-27 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 46 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wyoming (10* MWC GAME OF YEAR) Wyoming comes in focused and hungry here after dropping its second straight, most recently a 17-13 road setback to a much improved Hawaii team last weekend. Fresno State comes in complacent after its third straight win, most recently edging Nevada 21-3 on the road last Saturday. Last year’s match-up was battle as well, with the Bulldogs holding on for the 13-7 win. These teams are completely mismatched on paper, but note that Wyoming is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 against teams with winning records and 5-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. I look for the Bulldogs to go up early and then to take the foot off the gas in the second half. T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Fresno State. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Baylor +17 v. Texas | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 141 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baylor (8*) I think Texas takes a step back here and comes in a bit flat after five straight wins. The Longhorns most recently needed a last second nail-bitter to beat Oklahoma this past weekend. Baylor most recently got the better of K-State 37-34 this past weekend: “I told our guys at halftime that we statistically dominated,” Bears’ head coach Matt Rhule assessed afterwards. “We just weren’t able to put all the points on the board that we probably would like to. But I thought our guys didn’t panic. We found a way to fight down the stretch and found a way to win in the fourth quarter.” “We were pretty bad offensively a lot of the game,” Brewer admitted. “We were by no means perfect. But when it mattered the most we battled it out. Good teams do that–find a way. And we found a way in the end. The more you can get used to that and build your confidence up late in the game in the fourth quarter, I think it’s really important for the team.” As mentioned off the top, after their massive 48-45 win over Oklahoma, I think Texas takes a predictable step back here (note that the Longhorns are just 3-4 ATS in their last seven after two or more consecutive SU wins and just 1-3 ATS in their last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range.) T.M. Prediction: 35-25 Horns. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Temple v. Navy +4.5 | 24-17 | Loss | -106 | 141 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Navy (8*) Temple comes in a tiny bit complacent here after starting league play 2-0, most recently demolishing ECU 49-6 this past weekend. It’s going to be “all hands on deck” for the Mids though after they were smashed 35-7 at Air Force last weekend. Note that this is a “revenge” game as well for Navy after the Owls upset the Midshipmen 34-26 as a 6.5 point favorite last year. Tample’s weakness on defense is against the run as well, allowing 165.7 YPG, which clearly doesn’t bode well facing Navy’s option attack. Navy head coach Ken Niumatololo believes his team will be better on both sides of the ball this week: “I thought we were playing well on defense, but we just got worn down because we couldn’t get anything going offensively,” Niumatalolo said about last week’s loss. “Defensively, our guys just ran out of gas because they were out on the field so much. We’re not going to put that game on the defense. We have to play better on offense.” The Owl have been an ATS covering machine the last two seasons, but the chance for a “letdown” here remains. Also note that Navy is still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 at home and 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Navy. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Washington v. Oregon +3.5 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 141 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Oregon (8*) Washington comes to town off a much tougher than expected 31-24 road win over UCLA last weekend and now the Huskies are being asked to cover another spread as the favorite on the road this Saturday. The Ducks will look to take advantage and to build off their 42-24 road win over Cal two weeks ago. Note as well that this is a “revenge” game after the Huskies demolished Oregon 38-3 last year. Washington’s offense isn’t as explosive this season as it was last, ranked 45th in the country with an average of 442.7 YPG. The Huskies’ defense took a step back as well a last week, allowing 422 total yards to a week Bruins team. Note as well that Washington is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road, while Oregon is 4-1 ATS in its last five following its bye week. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Ducks. | |||||||
10-13-18 | Iowa v. Indiana +6 | Top | 42-16 | Loss | -106 | 138 h 8 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Indiana (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Iowa comes in complacent here in my opinion after its first conference win of the year lats week against Minnesota. Indiana has struggled to open conference play though and it’ll be eager to atone itself after getting killed by Ohio State last weekend. The Hawkeyes enter off the 48-31 upset win over Minnesota. Note though that Iowa has now allowed 59 points over its last two games. Indiana opened the season 3-0, but it’s since gone 1-2 in Conference action, with its lone victory coming over Rutgers. However, the Hoosiers are still very much in contention for a bowl spot and I expect the home side to leave everything on the field of play this afternoon. One player to keep your eyes one for the Buckeyes is RB Stevie Scott, who leads the team with 528 yards and five TD’s on the ground. Additionally note that Iowa is still just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Indiana is 6-3 ATS in its last nine against teams with winning records. T.M. Prediction: 27-25 Hoosiers. | |||||||
10-12-18 | Air Force +9 v. San Diego State | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 124 h 33 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Air Force (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Outright upset? The books certainly don’t want us to think that. However, I do indeed think you should “sprinkle a little” on the money line here as well as I look for the hungry Air Force Falcons to keep this one competitive against the complacent Aztecs. Air Force broke a three-game slide with an impressive 35-7 destruction of Navy at home last Saturday, while SDSU won its fourth straight in a 19-13 upset victory over Boise State on the blue turf of Boise Stadium last weekend. Can anyone say “letdown/trap” game?! Note as well that to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as note that SDSu has won seven straight in the series, including a 28-24 victory on the road last September 23rd. Air Force is averaging 31.4 PPG and it’s allowing 22. SDSU is averaging 21.6 PPG and it’s allowing 19.8. Additionally note that the Aztecs are 0-2 ATS in their last two as a home fav in the 10.5 to 14 points range. T.M. Prediction: 25-20 Aztecs. | |||||||
10-11-18 | Eagles -2.5 v. Giants | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 85 h 31 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Philadelphia Eagles (10* TV GAME OF THE YEAR) I think the Giants are going to be a popular pick with many. But I’m going the other way as I expect the defending champs to dig deep and to find a way to get the job done here on the short week. Philadelphia will be turning to Carson Wentz in this one after RB Jay Ajayi went down with injury last week. Despite being just 2-3 overall, Wentz has completed 67.2 percent of his passes for 914 yards, five TD’s and one INT. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on the combination of Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor, who have 649 yards and two TD’s between them. Overall the defense remains the strength of the Eagles right now, the unit currently allowing 20.8 PPG. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against, because at 1-4, the Giants are basically out of playoff contention already anyways. Eli Manning has been decent for New York with 1,381 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s, while Odell Beckham Jr. and Sterling Shepard have 766 receiving yards combined along with three TD’s. Overall New York is allowing 23.8 PPG. But note that the Giants are still just 3-7 ATS in their last ten at home, while the Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 played in New York. I think Philly’s tough defensive plays propels the visitors to a solid victory on Thursday night. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Eagles. | |||||||
10-11-18 | Texas Tech v. TCU -8.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -105 | 98 h 12 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: TCU (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) TCU smashed Texas Tech 27-3 last year and I believe the Horned Frogs will have their way with the Red Raiders this season as well. Texas Tech comes to town dejected off a 42-34 home loss to WVU, while TCU comes in confident after it’s tougher than expected 17-14 home win over Iowa State in its latest action two weeks ago. Off its bye and with the extra time off to prepare, I’m absolutely expecting a lop-sided destruction once it’s all said and done. TT also enters off its bye week after getting destroyed by the Mountaineers, allowing 489 yards of offense, including 370 through the air. Overall the Red Raiders allow 31 PPG while averaging 48.4 PPG. The Horned Frogs though are giving up just 20.8 PPG, while averaging 31.6. QB Shawn Robinson had 182 yards and two TD’s in the win over Iowa State two weeks ago. Note as well that TCU is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 following its bye week, while Texas Tech is interestingly just 1-5 ATS in its last six games on grass. T.M. Prediction: 40-23 Horned Frogs. | |||||||
10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +7 | Top | 35-9 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 58 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Arkansas State (10* MONEY-MAKER). Appalachian State is putting up some ridiculous numbers on both sides of the ball right now, but I think it’ll have its hands full tonight against this hungry Red Wolves team, which I do indeed believe has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. The Mountaineers are averaging 51.8 PPG and allowing only 17. Last week App State hammered South Alabama 52-7. The competition level has definitely skewed the Mountaineers numbers and I think some major “correction” is in store here. And that’s because the Red Wolves are allowing a decent 29.2 PPG on average. Arkansas State comes in off a tough 28-21 loss to Georgia Southern. QB Justice Hansen is a difference maker for sure though in my opinion, as he come sin sporting an elite 11/2 TD:INT. Note as well that App State is interestingly just 1-4 ATS in its last five after accumulating more than 450 total yards of offense in its previous game, while the Red Wolves are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five against schools with winning records. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 31-27 App State. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Rams v. Seahawks +7.5 | Top | 33-31 | Win | 100 | 142 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Seahawks (10* TRADE-MARK) The Seahawks are essentially playing for their playoff lives this week. LA has so far been the “cream of the crop” in the NFL this year, but I think it’ll stumble just enough for Seattle to at least come through with the solid cover. LA is averaging 35 PPG and it’s allowing only 16.8. Seattle is averaging 21.2 PPG and it’s allowing only 20.2. The Seahawks have won two straight and they enjoy a significant home field advantage. Note as well that that the underdog is 11-5 ATS the last 16 in this series. While Seattle’s defense is not what it once was, it’s still allowing just 204.2 passing yards per game. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Rams. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 138 h 27 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cleveland Browns (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) It’s a mid-season AFC North showdown on Sunday. Baltimore is 3-1 after beating Pittsburgh on Sunday, while Cleveland comes in hungry and pissed off after it’s 45-42 OT loss at Oakland. Everything’s been going right for Joe Flacco and the Ravens to this point, but I think the visitors come in a tiny bit complacent here. No such luxury for the Browns though. Cleveland’s offense has already made big strides with Baker Mayfield and RB Nick Chubb, who had 105 yards and two TD’s in last week’s loss to Oakland. The Ravens are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against teams with losing records. Grab the points and expect a war! T.M. Prediction: 24-23 Browns. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Titans -3 v. Bills | 12-13 | Loss | -125 | 138 h 26 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tennessee Titans (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) I’m expecting a complete blowout here. The Titans railed for a 26-23 OT win over Philadelphia last week, while Buffalo enters off a 22-0 road loss to Green Bay. The Titans average just 18.8 PPG, but they allow only 18.2. Last week Marcus Mariota had his best game of the season, finishing with 344 passing yards with two TD’s and an INT. There’s no reason to to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here in my opinion. The Bills on the other hand are averaging just 12.5 PPG, while allowing 26.5. Rookie QB Josh Allen has a weak 2:4 TD/INT. Note as well that Buffalo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while Tennessee is interestingly 6-1 ATS in its last seven after posing more than 350 total yards in its previous game. There’s everything to like about Tennessee right now and there’s absolutely nothing to like about Buffalo. I’m laying the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Titans. | |||||||
10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers -7 | 31-33 | Loss | -100 | 138 h 26 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) New York’s offense and defense has been terrible so far, which doesn’t bode well facing this Carolina team coming out of its bye week on the road. A big bonus for Carolina today is the return of WR Chris Samuel, who missed the first three games with a heart issue, but who led the preseason with ten catches for 180 yards. The Giants gave up three TD drives of 74 yards or longer in a 33-18 home loss to the Saints on Sunday. New York has posted just five sacks total through five games and it’s held its opposition on third down just 50 percent of the time. Cam Newton and the Panthers are averaging just 203.7 YPG passing, but with a week off to prepare and facing the suspect Giants’ secondary, I look the talented pivot to have a big game in front of the home town crowd. Note that the Panthers are 4-0 ATS in their last four following their bye week, while the Giants are just 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 road games against teams with an above .500 home record. I’m expecting a blowout. T.M. Prediction: 27-17 Panthers. | |||||||
10-06-18 | California +1.5 v. Arizona | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: California (10* TRADE-MARK) Arizona’ QB Khalil Tate was a dual threat QB last year and he pretty much dominated, but this season he’s been turned into a pocket passer and to this point, he’s struggled under the new system. So far he’s passed for under 250 yards in three of his first five games and he’s not rushed for over 38 yards in any of his starts this year, one season after posting 1,411 yards on the ground. The Golden Bears will look to take advantage and to bounce back after suffering their first loss of the year in a 42-24 home setback to No. 19 Oregon. Cal averages 28.5 PPG and it allows 25. Arizona is averaging 31.6 PPG and allowing 28.4. Note as well that the Wildcats are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous contest, while the Golden Bears are 4-0 ATS in their last four against teams with losing records. I think Tate continues to struggle against Cal’s above average defense. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Cal. | |||||||
10-06-18 | Auburn v. Mississippi State +3.5 | Top | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 147 h 42 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Mississippi State (10* SEC GAME OF THE YEAR). Auburn enters off a 24-13 win over Southern Miss last week, while Mississippi State will be desperate to get back to its winning ways after a tight 13-6 loss to Florida in its last outing. Note that this is a big time revenge game as well for the home side after it was embarrassed 49-10 in this matchup on the road last year. Auburn got the win last time out, but QB Jarrett Stidham completed just 57 percent of his passes. So far he has a 5/2 TD:INT. Overall the Tigers are averaging 32.6 points and allowing 12.6. Mississippi State is averaging 32.6 PPG and it’s allowing 13.4. QB Nick Fitzgerald had just 98 passing yards last week against a tough Florida defense. Overall he has 640 passing yards and a 4:2 TD/INT. Note though that Mississippi State is 23-6 ATS in its last 29 at home against teams with winning road records, while Auburn is 0-4 ATS in its last four following a SU victory. In a game that I expect to come down to the wire, I’m grabbing the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-17 Mississippi State. | |||||||
10-06-18 | Arizona State +3 v. Colorado | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 143 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Arizona State (8* SIT. BLOWOUT) Colorado hasn’t started 5-0 in 20 years and I think that trend continues here. The Buffaloes come in off a 38-16 win over UCLA. ASU is 3-2 after destroying Oregon State 42-24 at home last Saturday. RB Eno Benjamin finished with a school-record 312 rushing yards in that one and I have a hard time seeing Colorado slowing down the dynamic back here either. “It was a great feeling,” Benjamin assessed afterwards. “Honestly we had a game plan and we knew we were going to run the ball on them. We went through practice and we executed. If you saw the way we practiced this week you would have known it was going to happen and it’s just a testament to our offensive line.” ASU’s achilles heel has been its play on the road, but I think that trend finally comes to an end here. Colorado finally broke into the AP Top 25 after scoring at least 33 points in all four victories, while limiting opponents to just 195.8 passing yards. The Sun Devils catch a break as their offense is so run oriented. Note as well that ASU is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 against teams with winning records, while Colorado is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten against teams with winning records. I think the Buffs have a letdown finally. T.M. Prediction: 35-30 Sun Devils. | |||||||
10-06-18 | Northern Illinois v. Ball State +5 | 24-16 | Loss | -120 | 142 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (8* BLOWOUT) I think NIU comes in a tiny bit complacent here after it’s 2-0 start in the West Division of the MAC. The Huskies enter off an exhausting 26-23 Triple OT win over EMU and I look for Ball State, who ended a three-game skid by downing Kent State last week. NIU holds teams to just 348.6 YPG so far, but its offense ranks near the bottom of the nation in most statistical categories. Ball State lost to heavyweights Notre Dame and Indiana and while it lost to WKU at home, the Cardinals finally bounced back with a big 52-24 win over Kent State last week, the offense rolling up 606 yards. NIU may have won nine straight in this series, but I think it finally comes up short here. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Ball State. | |||||||
10-06-18 | East Carolina +13 v. Temple | 6-49 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: East Carolina (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) East Carolina enters off a confidence building 37-35 win over ODU. The ECU Pirates are averaging 293.2 YPG passing, good for 24th nationally. ECU QB Reid Herring already has 1,161 yards. Temple is getting treaty play from RB Ryquell Armstead, but overall the offense has stalled, averaging just 357.4 YPG. Note that ECU is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. Temple has issues on both sides of the ball. Expect a competitive battle here. T.M. Prediction: 26-25 Temple. | |||||||
10-05-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Marshall -7.5 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Marshall (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Middle Tennessee State was destroyed by Georgia and then it bounced back last week with a come-from-behind win over FAU for the 25-24 victory. MTSU’s numbers are likely better than what they’d indicate considering the competition (averages 25 PPG and allows 36.2) I still think the Blue Raiders are in over their heads here. Marshall is averaging only 26.8 PPG this year, but it’s allowing just 24.5. Most of the damage is done through the air by QB Isaiah Green with an average of 277 YPC. Additionally note that MTSU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a win against a conference rival. I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout! T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Herd. | |||||||
10-04-18 | Tulsa +15.5 v. Houston | Top | 26-41 | Win | 100 | 100 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tulsa (10* GAME OF WEEK). Tulsa comes in off a 31-17 loss to a pretty good Temple team on the road. Am I predicting an outright upset here? Of course not. I do think that the Golden Hurricane though can catch the high-powered Cougars “looking past” to its more difficult upcoming road games at ECU, Navy and then at home against UCF. It’s not going to get any easier unfortunately for Tulsa though, with a game at home against 4-0 USF next weekend. I think Tulsa though comes in focused as its offense takes advantage of this suspect Houston secondary. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 40-30 Houston. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 163 h 4 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Seattle Seahawks (10* NFC WEST “GOY.”) Arizona is winless and the Hawks can put the Cards out of their misery today. While Seattle is a shell of its former self, I still believe that Russell Westbrook will be the difference maker here for the visiting side. The Hawks enter off a confidence building 13 points victory over Dallas last weekend. RB Chris Carson had 102 rushing yards with a TD. The defense also stepped up big, as Earl Thomas had two INT’s. Wilson continues to put up elite numbers, with 716 yards and a 7:3 TD/INT. Arizona enters off a deflating 16-14 home loss to the Bears. Rookie QB Josh Rosen will make his first NFL start here. The offense ranks dead last in many categories, as WR Larry Fitzgerald has just 113 yards on 12 catches with no TD’s (no WR has a TD yet in fact for the Cards.) Note that Arizona is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records, while Seattle is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven in this series as the road team. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 23-17 Hawks. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Texans +2.5 v. Colts | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 160 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Houston Texans (8*) Both teams can’t be happy. Especially Houston though, which is 0-3. Indianapolis comes in off a disappointing 20-16 loss in Philadelphia last week. Houston though is on the cusp of breaking out and despite their season already lost with the terrible start, note that Houston has been averaging 396.3 YPG, but that’s translated into only 19.7 PPG average. Overall the Texans are allowing 24.7. DeAndre Hopkins has been a bright spot with 274 receiving yards in three games. The Colts are averaging 20 PPG and allowing 21. Andrew Luck has a pedestrian 5:3 TD/INT. Indy’s main RB Marlon Mack hasn’t played yet this year and he’s questionable for this one as well. Note that the Colts are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight against the AFC South, while Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games against a team with a losing home record. I like DeShaun Watson to guide Houston over Luck and the Colts questionable secondary. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Houston. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Bengals +5.5 v. Falcons | 37-36 | Win | 100 | 160 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Bengals (8*) Atlanta looks ripe for the picking in my opinion. The Falcons opened with a loss to the Eagles, followed by a win over Carolina, which was then followed by a crushing OT loss to division rival New Orleans last week. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” Cincinnati is 2-1 despite losing at Carolina last week and while I think it could win this one outright, I’ll grab the points in the end. New Orleans is banged up, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Note that ATL is 0-5 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 250 passing yards, while Cincinnati is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 against teams with losing records. The Falcons’ are also dealing with an injury to No. 1 RB Devonta Freeman. This one has “upset” written all over it. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Bengals. | |||||||
09-30-18 | Jets +10 v. Jaguars | 12-31 | Loss | -130 | 160 h 15 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: New York Jets (8*) New York struggled last week, but I think it’ll have enough in the tank to keep this one close down the stretch against the struggling Jaguars’ offense. New York enters off a 21-17 loss at Cleveland, a game which it was in control of for most of. QB Sam Darnold has 701 passing yards, three TDs’ and five INT’s. Overall though the Jets are averaging 25.7 PPG and allowing 19.3. Jacksonville is averaging 19.0 PPG and allowing 14.7. Last week Blake Bortles had 155 yards and overall the offense produced just 12 first downs in the 9-6 loss to Tennessee. Note that RB’s TJ Yeldon and Leonard Fournette are both listed as questionable still. I smell an upset. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 21-18 Jags. | |||||||
09-29-18 | USC -3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 148 h 59 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: USC (10* PAC-12 GAME OF YEAR) Arizona comes in off off back-to-back wins, most recently a 35-14 victory over Oregon State last Saturday. USC is 2-2, but it looked pretty good in its 39-36 win over Washington State last week. QB JT Daniels had 241 passing yards and three TD’s: “This week in practice you could feel the chemistry coming,” Trojans’ coach Clay Helton assessed afterwards. “I told Tyler (Vaughns) that their chemistry was that far away. You could feel it practice and I was hoping it was going to show up in the game. Both JT and the wide receivers did a tremendous job with our PO game.” USC has won nine straight games against the division and it’s also won five straight over the Wildcats. Arizona’ QB Khalil Tate has completed just 54.3 percent of his passes (he does have 1,039 yards, eight TD’s and two INT’s.) Tate had 1,411 rushing yards last year, but he has just 32 this season. The Wildcats are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 as an underdog, while USC is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards. T.M. Prediction: 33-25 Trojans. | |||||||
09-29-18 | Virginia Tech +4.5 v. Duke | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Virginia Tech (8* BLOWOUT) Virginia Tech is out to atone for a 49-35 upset at the hands of lowly ODU last Saturday. Duke is the prime opponent to get back on track against as I think the Blue Devils comes in complacent after their 55-13 home destruction of North Carolina Central. The Hokie have won two straight in the series, including a 24-3 victory last year. Despite last week’s “brain fart,” note that Virginia Tech is averaging 40.3 PPG and allowing 23. Duke is averaging 37.5 PPG and it’s allowing 15.2. Those numbers are skewed though because of the level of competition, so I’m not reading too much into them quite yet. In fact note that the Blue Devils are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six following an ATS loss, while VT is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after allowing 40 or more points in its previous contest. Duke’s down to its backup QB and I think it’ll have a hard time producing much offense against this focused Hokies’ defense. Play on VT. T.M. Prediction: 27-24 Hokies. | |||||||
09-29-18 | Northern Illinois +3 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 26-23 | Win | 100 | 144 h 6 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Northern Illinois (10* TRADE-MARK) Both teams have struggled to open the year. These schools are evenly matched, a sentiment shared by oddsmakers. EMU has lost two straight to Buffalo and San Diego State, while the Huskies are just 1-3, most recently falling to Florida State 37-19: “We’re obviously disappointed with the outcome of the game,” NIU head coach Rod Carey assessed. “We got it to the fourth quarter and I think we had our opportunities at the end with a missed field goal and a missed two-point conversion. We were in a fight, we kept on swinging, but we didn’t land enough punches. You can’t fault our effort.” NIU QB Marcus Childers had 215 yards passing and an 11-yard TD run in the fourth quarter. The Huskies looked good defensively as well, forcing four turnovers, led by ten tackles from Lance Deveaux. EMU lost 23-20 to SDSU last weekend. The Eagles though are having issues at QB right now. Last week Tyler Wiegers was pulled for junior Mike Glass early in the game and he’d go 9 of 16 for 53 yards with one TD and one INT. There were many positives for NIU in its loss to the Seminoles last week and I look for it to build off that against an EMU team searching for an identity on offense. T.M. Prediction: 25-21 Huskies. | |||||||
09-29-18 | Army +6 v. Buffalo | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 138 h 7 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Army (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Note that when these teams played last year, it was the Black Knights which pulled off the 21-17 victory. Army comes in off a hard-fought 28-21 road loss to Oklahoma, while Buffalo looks poised for a letdown here in m opinion after its 42-13 road victory over Rutgers. Last week Army’s option posted 339 yards on 78 carries. The Knights’ defense looked sharp as well, allowing just 335 yards to the Sooners. Army had a whopping 44:41 to 15:19 possession edge, but it wasn’t quite enough. It’ll be more than enough against the Bulls though in my opinion. Buffalo is so far averaging 40.2 PPG and allowing 20. However, those numbers are skewed considering the level of competition its played. Army presents a much more difficult challenge and I think the Bulls get caught “off guard” here. Note that Amy is 5-1 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-27 Buffalo. | |||||||
09-29-18 | Temple v. Boston College -14.5 | 35-45 | Loss | -112 | 138 h 7 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Boston College (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Temple comes in complacent after two straight victories, most recently a 31-17 him evictor over Tulsa last Thursday. BC on the other hand comes in razor focused after suffering its first loss of the year, a 30-13 setback on the road at Purdue. Temple is averaging 28 PPG and it’s allowing 21.5. QB Frank Nutile has 401 yards, four TD’s and four INT’s. RB Ryquell Armstead has 364 yards and a TD. BC is averaging 42.8 PPG and it’s allowing 24.8. QB Anthony Brown has 722 yards with ten TD’s and four INT’s. RB AJ Dillon has 491 yards and four TD’s. Note that the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last four following a straight up loss, while the Owls are interestingly just 1-5 ATS their last six after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. Temple is averaging just 3.7 YPC and only completing 50 percent of its passes. The Owls have committed eight turnovers, while BC has forced nine. This one has “blowout” written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 40-15 BC. | |||||||
09-28-18 | Memphis v. Tulane +13.5 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 122 h 22 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Tulane (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Everything’s going right for Memphis to open the season, while Tulane is coming off a 49-6 loss to Ohio State in Columbus last week. But I think the 3-0 Tigers do come in complacent here. Note as well that to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as Memphis has won 11 straight in the series, including 56-26 last year. The Tigers beat South Alabama last week, but it was in fact far from easy. Giving up 35 point to the Jaguars is not a good thing and the hungry Green Wave are going to have their chances. Most team’s struggle against Ohio State, so I’m not reading too much into last week’s setback. Green Wave QB Jon Banks has 792 yards, five TD’s and just one INT this season. Last year he had 1,800 yards passing with 12 TD’s and five picks. Additionally note that Tulane is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine conference contests and 7-1 ATS in its last eight at home. The Tigers’ weak defensive play comes back to bite them here. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 35-27 Memphis. | |||||||
09-27-18 | North Carolina +19.5 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 23 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: North Carolina (10* GAME OF WEEK) Outright upset? Of course not. But I absolutely expect the hard-fighting Tar Heels to keep this one a lot closer than what the bookmakers would like us to think. UNC got a much needed 38-35 win over Pitt at home on Saturday, while Miami Florida beat FIU 31-17 at home, the victory much more lop-sided than what the final score would indicate. Miami Florida played its backups for the most part in the second half and FIU scored 14 points in the final ten minutes of the game, long after it was decided. These teams played to a competitive affair last year though, with Miami winning 24-19 at Chapel Hill on October 28th, 2017. I think a similar hard-fought and close battle will occur in 2018 as well. It’s an important game for UNC, which is going to be looking for an upset and to avoid the 1-3 start. Will 3-0 Miami Florida get caught looking past the Tar Heels to the Seminoles at home next week? Very possible of course, as the Hurricanes were already guilty of taking the foot off the gas in their last game after going up big early. Give me the hungry underdog and all those points. T.M. Prediction: 30-23 Hurricanes. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Chargers +7 v. Rams | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -115 | 152 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: LA Chargers (10* TRADE-MARK) The Rams have been unbelievable, but the Chargers match up well against their cross town rivals. The Chargers had five sacks against Josh Allen last week. QB Philip Rivers already has 680 yards passing, six TD’s and one INT. Melvin Gordon has looked strong on the ground and he’ll test a Rams’ defense which to this point has given up just 6.5 PPG. But that’s because the Rams beat Arizona 34-0 last week. Clearly the Cardinals have some serious offensive issues. But Rivers and company don’t have that issue at all. Note as well that the Rams are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game, while the Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss. Rivers has the experience to keep this one competitive. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-24 Chargers. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Bengals v. Panthers -3 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 149 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Carolina Panthers (8*) The Bengals are primed for a letdown after going 2-0 to start the season, including a satisfying 34-23 home win over division rival Baltimore. Carolina on the other hand is 1-1 and looking to get back into the winners circle after falling 31-24 in Atlanta last week. Andy Dalton has looked great in the early going for the Bengals with a 6:1 TD/INT, but a the Cincy defense did allow 425 yards last week, including 376 through the air. A non conference date on the road just smells like a complete “letdown” spot for Cincinnati in my opinion. The Panthers’ Cam Newton had 335 yards, three TD’s and 42 rushing yards last week. The defense uncharacteristically struggled, but I think it’ll return to form here at home. Note that Carolina is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home, while Cincinnati is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five in this series. Despite last week’s result, the Panther still rank seventh in the NFL in pass defense. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Panthers. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons -3 | 43-37 | Loss | -114 | 149 h 50 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Atlanta Falcons (8*) Division battles are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side (for obvious reasons.) Both teams are 1-1. The Saints lost to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and then had to hold on for dear life in a victory over the Browns in Week 2. The Saints have looked suspect defensively and the offense is also lacking chemistry. The Falcons had their chances in Week 1 to put away the Eagles, but they’d go 0 for 3 in the red zone. Last week Atlanta was 4 for 4 in the red zone in their win over the Panthers. I think that offensive momentum gets carried over here. Note that ATL is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while New Orleans is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the division. Look for the Falcons to step up and defend home turf. T.M. Prediction: 30-23 Falcons. | |||||||
09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -4.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 149 h 49 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Baltimore Ravens (8*) Denver is 2-0 on the season, but it hits the road for the first time this year and I think it’ll stumble. Broncos’ QB Case Keenum has already been picked off four times over the first two games and that doesn’t bode well facing this Ravens’ defense which was burned by Cincinnati last week. Joe Flacco is past his prime, but I still give the veteran the nod in this matchup. I’m not buying into Denver as its achilles heel has always been its play on the road. Note that Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while Denver is just 1-9 ATS in its last ten on the road. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Ravens. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Eastern Michigan v. San Diego State -10 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -106 | 135 h 37 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: San Diego State (10* TRADE-MARK) SDSU comes in with confidence after it’s win over Arizona State last week. On the other side of the field, EMU comes in deflated after suffering its first loss of the season in a 35-28 MAC Opening setback to Buffalo. The Eagles continue to split time at the QB position between Tyler Wiegers and Mike Glass and the in-decision is clearly starting to bog down the chemistry of the offense. SDSU will look to take advantage, last week it held ASU to just 36 rushing yards on 24 carries. The Aztecs would themselves rush for 311 yards. Note that SDSU is 18-6-2 ATS in its last 26 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game. The EMU offense is one-dimensional, which doesn’t bode well facing an Aztecs unit allowing just 46.3 rushing yards per game this season. This one has blowout written all over it. T.M. Prediction: 35-15 SDSU. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Florida International +27 v. Miami-FL | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 128 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Florida International (8* SITUATIONAL BLOWOUT) Miami lost to LSU to open the year, but it’s since won back-to-back games. FIU smashed UMass 63-24 last week, as James Morgan had 207 yards and two TD’s. Morgan has a 63 percent pass completion percentage over the first three games. Overall the Panthers had 329 rushing yards in the win over the Minutemen. Miami destroyed Toldeo 49-24 last week. The Hurricanes defense leads the nation in several categories, but I think the unit will be tested by this under the radar Panthers’ offense. Note that FIU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning records, while Miami is just 5-8 ATS in the same position. Give me the hungry dog and all those points! T.M. Prediction: 35-21 Miami Florida. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Miami-OH -4.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 127 h 18 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Miami Ohio (10* MAC GAME OF YEAR) This is the opener of the MAC campaign for each team. Likely each is happy that Conference action is underway as they come in a combined 1-5 to open the 2018/19 campaign. Miami Ohio opened with a slim loss to Marshall, but since then it’s been shut down offensively, scoring just three points combined against Cincinnati and Minnesota. The good news is though, is that those are two of the toughest defensive units in the entire country and clearly the Green Falcons don’t possess nearly the defensive talent. Miami Ohio has itself been tough defensively though, allowing just 27.3 PPG so far. Bowling Green is a disaster, allowing 46 PPG so far (522.3 YPG conceded) I like the Redhawks’ defense in this matchup and I believe it’ll be the difference maker. Look for Miami Ohio to get back on track offensively as well against BGSU’s atrocious secondary. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Miami Ohio. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina +4 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 124 h 29 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: North Carolina (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) Pittsburgh got the better of Georgia Tech 24-19 in its most recent action. UNC comes in rested after its game against UCF was put off because of the Hurricane last weekend. Previous to that though the Tar Heels were upset 41-19 by East Carolina. If recent history is any precedence though, then UNC has to be loving its chances today, as note that in last year’s matchup the Tar Heels scored the 34-31 road win. In Week 2 the Panthers fell 51-6 to Penn State, but they clawed back with the victory over the Yellow Jackets last Saturday. Pittsburgh is averaging just 21 PPG so far, while allowing 25.7. North Carolina has averaged 18 points and allowed 32.5. UNC had a big mental letdown against the Pirates, but I think it’ll bounce back here with the extra week off to prepare. The Panthers have been nothing special and I have a hard time seeing them pulling away in this one. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-23 UNC. | |||||||
09-22-18 | Boston College v. Purdue +7 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 124 h 10 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Purdue (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Boston College is undefeated. Purdue is winless. While those facts may remain the same at the end of this one, I think it’s going to be a tight battle. Note that the Boilermakers have lost their first three games by a combined eight points. These teams are actually evenly matched, with competent direction under center, but from a trend based stand point, there’s no doubt that this one favors the Boilermakers, as Purdue is 6-2 ATS in its last eight non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. I think desperation leads Purdue to another tight cover (if not a win!). Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 35-30 Purdue. | |||||||
09-21-18 | Washington State v. USC -4 | Top | 36-39 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: USC (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) A great overall “situational” pick. Washington State comes in unbeaten and complacent, most recently thrashing Eastern Washington 59-24 at home on Saturday. USC on the other hand will be desperate here after losing its second straight, most recently a 37-14 drubbing at Texas Saturday. Now throw in the fact that the Cougars took the lone match-up in the series last year 30-27, and this one has all the makings of a big time home side blowout in my opinion. Washington State’s early season offensive and defensive numbers are tremendous, but let’s take them with a “grain of salt” at this point. The Cougars face their stiffest test of the season today and in my estimation, they’re primed for a classic “letdown” here. It’s “all hands on deck” for USC though. Note that Washington State is in fact just 2-3 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range as well. Lay the points and expect a rout. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Trojans. | |||||||
09-20-18 | Jets +3 v. Browns | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -103 | 85 h 15 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: New York Jets (10* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT!) Why not the Jets on Thursday night? Of course the Browns are “hungry” for a win, but New York is equally as so. Cleveland had two legitimate chances for a victory to open the season and it’s come up short each time. The Jets looked great in Week 1, before then stumbling in Week 2, but defensively New York has been “lights out” so far, allowing just 18.5 PPG. New York isn’t going to allow Tyrod Taylor a lot space to throw the ball around today, so with each team putting an added emphasis on trying to establish the run while on offense, I’m expecting a tight battle until the final moments (basically whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I expect to win.) In a situation like that, give me the points! T.M. Prediction: Jets 23-20. | |||||||
09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple -6.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 84 h 24 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Temple (10* GAME OF MONTH) Tulsa lost 29-20 at home to Arkansas State on Saturday, while Temple shook off an 0-2 start with a big 35-14 road win at Maryland to end its non-conference schedule last weekend. I think the Owls are going to build off that impressive victory in front of the home town crowd and to open AAC action. And if recent history is any precedence, then Temple has to be loving it chances today as the Owls wiped the floor with the Golden Hurricane in last year’s match-up, 43-22. Tulsa is averaging 26.3 points and it’s allowing 28. Last week the Golden Hurricane turned it over three times, including a pick six INT. Last week Temple had a decisive 429-195 yardage edge over Maryland. The Owls are averaging 27 PPG, but allowing only 23. That’s 58th in the nation. Temple is also 8-2 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records, while Tulsa is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after allowing 200 or more yards rushing in its previous game. Temple held the Terps to just 63 passing yards last week and I look for the defense to build off that impressive performance. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 37-21 Owls. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 151 h 26 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Dallas Cowboys (10* GAME OF MONTH) Both teams come in off duds. It’s just as difficult to write a convincing argument for the Giants as it is for the Cowboys. Both teams have major QB issues, as Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott threw for 17 yards in last week’s 16-8 loss to Carolina. That was a difficult match-up, but I think the Cowboys will have much more opportunity offensively today against the Giants’ suspect defense. New York QB’ Eli Manning had 223 yards passing, no TD’s and an INT. RB Saquon Barkley was a bright spot for New York, but I still think the Cowboys have the big advantage in that department with Ezekiel Elliot. Dallas is still 13-10 ATS in its last 23 as a fav, while NY is still only 11-12 ATS in its last 23 as a dog. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 24-16 Cowboys. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Colts +5.5 v. Redskins | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 144 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indianapolis Colts (8*) Andrew Luck and the Colts looked good for one half last week, before then falling apart in the third quarter and eventually getting blown out 34-23 at home to the Bengals. But Luck finished with 319 passing yards and two TD’s. With that rust shaken off, I think Indy can give Washington a run for its money today. The Colts looked decent defensively too last week. The Redskins hammered the Cardinals 24-6, holding them to just 213 total yards. I think Washington comes in over confident. New QB Alex Smith looked sharp, but I still think the book is out on the veteran and I expect him to be under a lot of pressure today. The outright win? It’s not out of the question, but in the end I’ll recommend to grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 25-20 Colts. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Chargers v. Bills +8.5 | 31-20 | Loss | -130 | 144 h 18 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Buffalo Bills (8*) Both teams looked pretty terrible in Week 1. LA lost 38-28 at home to the Chiefs, while Buffalo was demolished 47-3 by Baltimore. Note that this is a revenge game for Buffalo after it fell 54-24 to the Chargers on the road last year. LA looked especially horrible on the defensive side of the ball last week. QB Philip Rivers looked decent, but the defensive unit would allow four passing TD’s. Buffalo has already made a switch at QB from Nathan Peterman to Josh Allen. The Bills defense allowed 369 yards last week, but I expect some improvement in front of the home town crowd on Sunday. LA’s achilles heel has been its play on the road the last few seasons, while the strength of Buffalo has been its performance in all home contests. I look for these strong trends to continue. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 21-20 Chargers. | |||||||
09-16-18 | Vikings +1.5 v. Packers | 29-29 | Win | 100 | 144 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Minnesota Vikings (8*) Aaron Rogers will most likely play in this one for Green Bay, but whether he does or he doesn’t I think the visitors will find a way to get the job done in the end. Minnesota posted a 24-16 home win over San Francisco last week, while the Packers came from behind to knock off the Bears 24-23. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Vikes have to be loving their chances today as note they won both games in the series last year, including a 16-0 victory at Lambeau late in the season. Vikes’ QB Kirk Cousins had 244 yards and two TD’s, and while Rogers is clearly the better pivot in this match-up overall, the Packers’ QB is not going to be at 100% health today. And that’s bad news for a Green Bay team which is just 1-5 ATS in its last in its last six at home. Minnesota’s depth on both sides of the ball wears down Green Bay. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 27-20 Vikings. | |||||||
09-15-18 | Washington -5.5 v. Utah | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 148 h 53 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Washington (8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT) It’s an inter division clash in the Pac-12 conference and I think the No. 10 Huskies come to play tonight. Washington is so far 1-1, losing its opener at then No. 9 Auburn, before then demolishing North Dakota State 45-3 last weekend. QB Jake Browning had 313 yards and two TD’s in the win and in all the Huskies posted 632 total yards of offense. Utah is 2-0 after getting the better of NIU 17-6 last Saturday. WR Britain Covey had eight catches for 129 yards. The Utes’ defense looked strong, holding Northern Illinois to 228 total yards. The offense though has been lack-lustre and to add insult to injury, leading rusher Zack Moss left last week’s game with injury himself. Also note that while Utah QB Tyler Huntley was 20 of 31 for 286 yards last week, he was also sacked six times. The Utes have lost five straight games to ranked opponents since 2015 and they’re also only 3-11 in their last 14 games against Top 10 rivals since 2014. Additionally note that Washington is a superb 18-4 ATS in its last 22 as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. I like the visitors to win decisively. T.M. Prediction: 30-17 Huskies. | |||||||
09-15-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Buffalo -3 | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 144 h 43 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Buffalo (10* TRADE-MARK) This is the opener of MAC play for both teams and I think home field will prove critical for the Bulls tonight. EMU comes in off an upset 20-19 win on the road in Purdue last week. Can anyone say “letdown” spot?! Buffalo will look to take advantage and move to 3-0 after defeating Temple on the road last week. EMU converted just 3 of 13 third downs last week and rushed for just 69 yards. The Eagles have also given up a lot of yards in the early going (431 YPG average conceded.) Buffalo’s offense comes in firing on all cylinders and the defense has given up an average of just 315 yards per game so far. Note that the Bulls are 3-0 ATS in their last three after two or more consecutive victories as well. I think Buffalo’s run game will prove to be too much for EMU to handle. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 30-23 Buffalo. | |||||||
09-15-18 | UTEP v. Tennessee -29 | 0-24 | Loss | -106 | 138 h 46 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Tennessee (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) This one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. Tennessee has won 26 non-conference home games against unranked opponents and all signs point to that trend continuing. Tennessee will be looking to fine tune a few things before the start of league play. And what better team to destroy than lowly UTEP? The Miners have the longest active losing streak among FBS Schools, having dropped 14 in a row, most recently a dismal 52-24 setback at UNLV last Saturday. Overall UTEP allowed four TD plays of 20 or more yards and 414 rushing yards overall. UTEP QB Kai Locksley has so far been a disappointment with just 177 passing yards between the two games. The Vols will look to take advantage of a UTEP side which has lost ten consecutive road games by a combined 390-141. Tennessee is 1-1, losing 40-14 to WVU, before then bouncing back with a 59-3 destruction of East Tennessee State last weekend. Tennessee still has a lot to prove it would seem at this point before SEC play begins: “I thought we did eliminate some of our errors from the previous week, offensively,” Vols’ coach Jeremy Pruitt said earlier in the week. “We didn’t turn the ball over which was a plus, and we scored in the red area. Defensively, we minimized the big plays and got off the field on third downs. We created a score on defense and special teams, so that is always good. We had another turnover to set up an offensive touchdown.” QB Jarrett Guarantano has 326 yards over the first two games. Now throw in the fact that UTEP is 0-7-1 ATS in its last eight following a SU loss of more than 20 points, and I think this spread could in fact be a lot larger. Great value on what will prove to be a big time blowout. T.M. Prediction: 40-7 Vols. | |||||||
09-15-18 | Ball State v. Indiana -14 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 138 h 45 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Indiana (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Indiana hasn’t started a season 3-0 since 2015, but I think it’s going to accomplish that feat today. It’s the Hoosiers final tune-up before Big Ten play and I look for the home side to make the most of this opportunity. Ball State is 1-1 and most recently fell 24-16 at then No. 8 Notre Dame last week. With that “oh-so-close” opportunity still in their front of their minds, I think the Cardinals come in flat and distracted here: “I am proud of my guys because we prepared all week to make sure that we’d just fight, scratch and claw, and make sure that you just leave everything you’ve got on the field for 60 minutes,” Ball State head coach Mike Neu assessed afterwards. “I know without a doubt after looking at those guys in the locker room and as we left the field that we left everything we had on the field.” There you have it, they left everything they had on that field and still came up short (note that Ball State has lost eight of its last ten non-conference road games.) Indiana is getting unreal play from RB Stevie Scott, who had 204 yards in last week’s rain soaked victory: “You’ve got to believe in them, and you’ve got to let them go,” Hoosiers coach Tom Allen said of Scott . “The bottom line is that you grow up really fast when you’re forced to. He’s our biggest, strongest back … he’s got huge hands. And he’s really strong and I think that helps with ball security. It was a little unnerving because he is a true freshman, he is green, but I think we saw a guy grow up tonight in front of all of us. Really proud of him. And the O-line made it all happen … we ran the ball really good against a good defense.” Note that Ball State is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog. I think the stage is set for the Cardinals to take a step back after last week’s disappointing setback, while I do expect the Hoosiers to build off their recent success with a full four quarter effort here. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 45-15 Indiana. | |||||||
09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis -24 | Top | 22-59 | Win | 100 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Memphis (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Memphis had a 21-9 half-time lead at Navy last week, but it stumbled in the second half and eventually lost 22-21. As difficult as that setback was, I do indeed look for the Tigers to use that disappointment as “fuel” tonight to crush the Panthers hopes. And speaking of getting crushed, after scoring the first 7 points last week at NC State, Georgia State would then give up 41 unanswered points. It’s not going to get any easier for the lowly Panthers this week either, who are a poor 1-3 ATS in their last four as an underdog of 21.5 points or more. Look for the home side to take full advantage and lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 45-15 Memphis. | |||||||
09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals +1.5 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 80 h 50 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Cincinnati Bengals (10* GAME OF WEEK). It’s safe to say that there’s no love loss between these division rivals. Andy Dalton and the Bengals have struggled against the Ravens defense over the years, but after the way Cincinnati closed out the Colts in the second half on the road last week, I absolutely expect the home side to defend its turf. Baltimore looked fantastic against the toothless Bills, but I believe that sets it up for a classic “letdown” as the team comes in over confident. I don’t think actually resting its starters (the Ravens rested most of their offensive/defensive starters in the third quarter after the game was out of reach last weekend) is a benefit for Baltimore at this time of year. The starters don’t need rest, they need playing time. And that’s exactly what Dalton needed, as after a sub-par first half, he and his offense were firing on all cylinders in the second. I think Flacco and the Ravens are the ones to take a step back on the short week on the road. Play on Cincinnati. T.M. Prediction: Bengals 24-20. | |||||||
09-13-18 | Boston College v. Wake Forest +4.5 | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -106 | 95 h 25 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Wake Forest (10* BANKROLL BUILDER) Both teams won big over their first two games. Last year Wake Forest posted a 34-10 road win over the Eagles and I think another victory in front of the home town crowd is in order here as well. BC QB Anthony Brown only played one quarter in his team’s 62-14 win over Holy Cross last week. RB AJ Dillon had 149 rushing yards and the defense limited its lowly opponent to under 200 total yards earned. Wake Forest held Towson to just 65 rushing yards in its 51-20 win last week, a victory which saw QB Sam Hartman go for almost 250 passing yards and two TD’s. Note that BC is still just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 as a road favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Wake Forest is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. Give me the hungry and confident home dog in a very tight battle. T.M. Prediction: Demon Deacons 30-25. | |||||||
09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +4.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 19 m | Show |
T.M. Prediction: Oakland Raiders (10* TRADE-MARK). Clearly the Raiders have a few question marks heading into the season. But, so to do the Rams. LA had the highest scoring offense a year ago and while the core group of players returns again this season, note that the entire starting group saw almost no time whatsoever over the four exhibition games. LA has an awesome looking defense on paper as well, but it’s a unit which also features a number of new faces. David Carr is back under center for Oakland and he gives his team much more than just a punchers chance today. Jordy Nelson will be one of his new main weapons to utilize. The pressure is on Jon Gruden and I think the home side responds in this situation. Grab the points. T.M. Final Score: Raiders 33-20. | |||||||
09-10-18 | Astros v. Tigers +1.5 | 3-2 | Win | 160 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Detroit Tigers run line (8*) Justin Verlander has been tremendous for the Astros. He earned a Cy Young award when he was with the Tigers. Verlander returns to Detroit, but I think he’ll falter here. Verlander is 14-9 with a 2.73 ERA and he comes in off consecutive pedestrian outings. The bar is now set so incredibly high for Verlander, that even mediocre starts are looked at as a concern. Detroit goes with Liriano, who is 4-9 with a 4.90 ERA and who comes in off a decent outing against the White Sox in his most recent action. The veteran had a strong Spring showing, but he’d quickly fade and he’s barely holding as the season comes to a close. I’ll point out though that Detroit is still 7-2 in its last nine night home games as an underdog in the -200 to -300 range. I like Detroit to give Verlander everything he can handle. Play the Tigers on the run line in this one. T.M. Prediction: 5-4 Tigers. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Broncos | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 70 h 27 m | Show | |
T.M. Prediction: Seattle Seahawks (9* TRADE-MARK) Clearly I think you should also “sprinkle a little” on the money line here, as I believe Seattle offers great value in an upset role on the road against the “rudder-less” Broncos. Seattle has 20 new faces on the field of play today, but Russell Wilson is back under center. He has Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett to throw too and the Broncos simply don’t have an answer for these guys. The addition of RB Rashad Penny and speedster wideout Jaron Brown make the ‘Hawks a difficult match-up for any team still. The Seattle defense still has some of its veteran core, but it’s admittedly a bit of a work in progress. However the Seahawks catch a break here facing Case Keenum and the Broncos offense, which was a disaster last year. Keenum has some weapons (Emmanuel Sanders, Deymarius Thomas), but the unit is going to lack chemistry out of the gate. Note that the Broncos are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, while the Seahawks are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six on the road. Grab the points. T.M. Final Score: 25-20 Seahawks. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Redskins v. Cardinals | Top | 24-6 | Loss | -118 | 70 h 55 m | Show |
T.M. Prediction: Cardinals (10* GAME OF THE WEEK) Both teams come in with big expectations. Washington is starting Adrian Peterson as its main RB. The offense also features new QB Alex Smith, who took only a few snaps with the first team in the preseason. Chemistry is going to be an issue early for Washington in my opinion. The Cards welcome back David Johnson, who was hurt on the first play of the game in the first game of the year last season and lost for the entirety of the campaign. In 2017 he rushed for 1,239 yards and caught 80 passes for 879 more yards: “Yeah, he’s pretty impressive,” Cards’ quarterback Sam Bradford said of Johnson. “Watching him run routes, I think he might be one of our best route runners, regardless of position. He’s just so smooth. He is so versatile as a running back, that’s there so much–almost anything–you can do with him. We just have to find ways to give him opportunities.” Note that the Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 1 contests and 2-5 ATS their last seven on the road, while Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six at home. I think the combination of Bradford and Johnson will prove to be too much for this suspect Redskins defense. I’m expecting a decisive home side victory in this one. T.M. Final Score: 30-21 Cardinals. | |||||||
09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +4.5 | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 68 h 28 m | Show | |
T.M. Prediction: Cleveland Browns (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) The Steelers are most likely the better team here, but the off-field drama surrounding Le’Veon Bell makes Cleveland the sharp move here in my opinion. The Browns went 3-1 in the preseason, getting solid play from both QB’s in starter Tyrod Taylor and rookie back-up Baker Mayfield. Ben Roethlisberger is back and so too is Antonio Brown for the Steelers, but the off field drama surrounding Bell has been significant and I think it throws a “monkey-wrench” into the Steelers chemistry on Opening night. The Browns have many new faces on both sides of the ball and while early chemistry will surely be an issue as well, Cleveland looked sharp in all three phases during the pre-season and there’s no reason not to think that the team can’t carry that consistency over here as well. While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I’m going to grab the points in the end. T.M. Final Score: 25-23 Pittsburgh. | |||||||
09-08-18 | Arkansas v. Colorado State +12 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 142 h 54 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Colorado State (10* GAME OF MONTH) Colorado State comes in desperate as it’s already 0-2 with losses to Colorado and Hawaii. Arkansas though comes in contented after opening the season with a win over Eastern Illinois. Razorbacks QB Cole Kelley struggled in his limited time to begin the game and Storey was put in midway through and he’d go 12 of 17 for 261 yards and three TD’s in just two quarters of action. “Storey was the story,” Eastern Illinois head coach Kim Dameron lamented afterwards. “He came in and hit us on the big plays down the field…. I thought just the way he handled the passing game was impressive.” I think Storey will have his hands full though with a hungry Rams team looking for any type of spark to turn things around. Colorado State has had to play from behind in each of its first two games and QB KJ Carta-Samuels so far has a respectable 537 yards, five TD’s and one INT. The defense has been a disaster, but the Rams catch a break facing the run heavy offense of Arkansas this week. With a game at home against North Texas next weekend, it’s not to hard to imagine the Razorbacks in some small way coming in complacent to this one either. I think the desperation in which Colorado State plays with today turns out to be the difference. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 41-35 Razorbacks. | |||||||
09-08-18 | Ball State +33.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 138 h 5 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Ball State (10* TRADE-MARK) Notre Dame comes in off a win and cover over Michigan at home last week and I think it’ll suffer enough of a mental letdown here to let lowly Ball State sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the massive spread that it’s been afforded. Ball State was 2-10 last year, mostly due to injury to key players. The Cards were handed a “cream puff” in their opener and they smashed FCS school Central Connecticut State 42-6. Riley Neal and James Gilbert only played three combined games last year, but they’d go on to lead an offense which posted 652 total yards. Neal was 23 of 30 for 258 yards and three TD’s. “We’ve been waiting for this,” Cardinals coach Mike Neu assessed afterwards. “The credit has to go to the offensive line because they give the running back the holes to do what they do. It was good to see 34 (Gilbert) back out there. He’s a warrior. I thought Riley was in control. He made some big throws and checks at the line of scrimmage. I thought he did a good job out there, it was great to have number 15 back out there.” Clearly the Ball State defense, which gave up over 40 PPG last year, will have a much more difficult time today, but regardless it was a huge step in the right direction for the unit. The Irish knocked off the Wolverines 24-17, as the defense would go on to force two turnovers while also limiting Michigan to just 58 rushing yards. QB Brandon Wimbush was just 12 of 22 though for 170 yards, one TD and one INT. I think Notre Dame gets caught looking ahead to its interesting home match-up with Vanderbilt next week. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 40-25 Irish. | |||||||
09-08-18 | North Carolina -14.5 v. East Carolina | 19-41 | Loss | -112 | 138 h 56 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: North Carolina (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) UNC fell to Cal this past weekend, while East Carolina was embarrassed by FCS school North Carolina AT&T. The Tar Heels clearly have issues, but not nearly as many as the Pirates. UNC came out on the short end of a lower-scoring 24-17 setback to California on Friday, QB Nathan Elliot had only 137 yards through the air: “Turnovers and penalties, that’s the game right there,” Tar Heels’ head coach Larry Fedora lamented. “Self-inflicted wounds is what those are…. Whether you get pressure or not you have to make the right decision. If you turn it over like we did you’re going to have a hard time winning the game.” The Pirates looked even more pathetic though and against the lowliest of opponents, falling 28-23 to North Carolina AT&T. “We put the ball on the ground way too many times since I’ve been here,” said ECU head coach Scottie Montgomery afterwards (note the Pirates turned the ball over on three occasions while forcing no turnovers.) “We just can’t have that happen. And all that goes directly to me. There’s no way that I can point the finger at any of these kids. They prepared harder than any group I’ve ever been around and did exactly what we asked them to do.” Note that East Carolina is just 2-7-1 ATS in its last ten at home, while UNC is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 on the road. Losing to Cal is one thing, but losing to an FCS school is quite another. Lay the points and expect a rout. T.M. Prediction: 40-17 Tar Heels. | |||||||
09-08-18 | Western Michigan v. Michigan -26.5 | 3-49 | Win | 100 | 135 h 33 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Michigan (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) WMU opened with a 55-42 home loss to Syracuse last Friday and it now it travels to the Big House to face the No. 14 Michigan Wolverines on Saturday afternoon, a team which comes in off a disappointing 24-17 setback to No. 12 Notre Dame last weekend. The Broncos looked decent offensively last week, but downright terrible on the defensive side of the ball. QB Jon Wassink was a bright spot in the setback to the Orange, going for 379 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s though. Shea Patterson was 20 of 30 for 227 yards, an INT and a fumble in his Wolverines debut. Dylan McCaffrey was four of six for 22 yards. Karan Higdon was a bright spot on the ground with 72 yards. While they fell flat in Week 1, I think the Wolverines will get it together in Week 2. Note that Michigan is 4-1 ATS in tis last five home games against teams with a losing road record, while the Broncos are just 1-4 ATS In their last five home games against a team with a losing road record. I think Patterson settles down and the Wolverines defense does the rest. Lay the points. T.M. Prediction: 45-10 Wolverines. | |||||||
09-08-18 | Eastern Michigan +15 v. Purdue | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 134 h 27 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Eastern Michigan (8* BLOWOUT) The EMU Eagles come in off a confidence building 51-17 victory over lowly Monmouth last Friday, while Purdue comes in stunned after it’s 31-27 home opening loss to Northwestern. Clearly the Boilermakers will be eager to get into the winners circle, but the Eagles won’t be going down without a fight. I’m not calling for the upset, but I do think Purdue comes in still collectively hung up over its season opening loss. And with upcoming home games against Missouri and Boston College, it’s not to hard to imagine the home side in some small way also getting caught “looking ahead” to those much more important/difficult contests. Last week EMU QB Tyler Wiegers was 18 of 21 for 238 yards and two TD’s. Purdue QB Elijah Sindelar was 18 of 30 for 196 yards, one TD and three INT’s last week, while David Blough was 12 of 16 for 74 yards. I understand that beating Monmouth is one thing, while beating a pissed off Purdue team at home is quite another. But as I mentioned above, I’m not calling for an outright upset. I do definitely think though that the stage is set for a competitive battle. Grab the points. T.M. Prediction: 35-25 Boilermarkers. | |||||||
09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -7 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -102 | 33 h 7 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Florida State (10* GAME OF WEEK) FSU was 7-6 last year, while Virginia Tech went 9-4. VT averaged 28.2 PPG in 2017 and the unit should be decent again this season with the return of QB Josh Jackson, who had 2,991 passing yards and a 20/9 TD:INT ratio last year. The biggest difference though is on the defensive side this season. Last year the Hokies allowed just 14.8 PPG, but that unit now features many new faces in 2018/19. FSU QB Deondre Francois is ready to step up and take advantage. While Francois missed most of last season to injury, he had a 20/7 TD:INT ratio in 2016. The Seminoles had a strong defense as well last year which allowed only 21.2 PPG and it should only be better this season with most of the key/skill players returning. I think FSU wears down the new look VT defense. Lay the points, play on the Seminoles. T.M. Prediction: 35-20 Seminoles. | |||||||
09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU +3.5 | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 34 h 2 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: LSU (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT) Miami comes in ranked No. 8, while LSU is No. 25. The Tigers won’t be going down without a fight today in this neutral site game and while the outright win is clearly not out of the question, the prudent move is the points in my opinion as I’m expecting a “nail-biter” until the end. Miami was 10-3 last year, while LSU was 9-4. Miami returns’ starting QB Malik Rosier, who had 3,120 yards passing and 468 yards rushing. Overall the Hurricanes averaged 29.1 points and allowed 21. LSU averaged 27.2 points and it allowed just 18.9. The offense has to replace QB Danny Etling, so expect to see a fight between Myles Brennan and Joe Burrow. But the LSU defense returns its core and I ultimately think the unit is going to keep it in this game late. Grab the points and then grab some popcorn! T.M. Prediction: 25-20 LSU. | |||||||
09-01-18 | Bowling Green v. Oregon -32 | Top | 24-58 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
T.M. Selection: Oregon (10* TRADE-MARK) Bowling Green went 2-10 last season, and while some returning starters should see that record go up this tar, it’s still going to be an uphill battle for the Falcons. Jarret Doege only played half the season for Bowling Green and he had 1,381 yards, 12 TD’s and three INT’s. Doege is going to be given the green light today to throw to Scott Miller, who had 63 catches for 722 yards last year. Bowling Green was weak defensively though and it’s a major question mark for the team this season as well. The Ducks are led by QB Justin Hebert, who had almost 2,000 yards passing last year in eight games. In fact, in the seven regular season games that Hebert played in, Oregon was 6-1 and averaged 52.1 points, compared to going just 1-4 and averaging a paltry 15 without him under center. The Ducks were tough defensively last season and they should be again this year as well. Note that Oregon is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home as a favorite, while Bowling Green is 0-9 ATS in its last nine non-conference contests. I look for Hebert and the Ducks to roll this score up. Lay the points. T.M. Predicted Score: 60-15 Oregon. | |||||||
09-01-18 | UMass v. Boston College -17.5 | 21-55 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Boston College (9* SUPER-PLAY) I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. Note that the last time these met back in 2016 BC won 26-7. Massachusetts played last week and hammered Duquesne 63-15, but I think it’s going to stumble here with the step up in competition. The Minutemen were just 4-8 last year, so they got a “cream puff” on Opening weekend. QB Andrew Ford was 13 of 19 for 186 yards and two TD’s, while Bilal Ally had 109 yards on the group and a TD. The defense looked good, but obviously the unit faces a much stiffer test this week. Overall UMass averaged 30.6 PPG last year and it allowed 31.8. BC went 7-6 last season. The Eagles averaged 25.7 PPG and they allowed 22.8, which was ranked 37th in the nation. Ten starters return on offense for BC and the defense is also expected to be a strength this year as well. Sure UMass looked great last week against an FCS team, but seriously, who cares. While the UMass offense looked pretty good last season, the Eagles’ defense is elite and I think it’ll be the difference maker in the end. Lay the points. T.M. Predicted Score: 50-15 Boston College. | |||||||
09-01-18 | Houston v. Rice +26.5 | 45-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 9 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Rice (8* BANKROLL BUILDER) This is a quick trip for Houston to take on the Rice Owls on Saturday. The Cougars finished with a 7-5 record last year (and then lost to Fresno State in the Hawaii Bowl 33-27). Rice was just 1-11 last season, which led to a coaching change. Now, I’m not predicting an outright upset here or anything, but I certainly believe this is a few too many points to be giving up here. Note as well that the “revenge” factor does come into play as Houston has won four straight in the series, including 38-3 in the most recent back on September 16th, 2017. Houston averaged 28.2 PPG game last year and it allowed 23.8. D’Eriq King is the man under center and he finished with 1,260 yards, seven TD’s and two INT’s last season. Rice averaged only 16.2 PPG and it allowed 35.8. QB Jackson Tyner had 600 yards, two TD’s and 44 rushing yards and another rushing TD as well. The Owls aren’t going to win this game, they’re just going to be desperately trying not to get blown out. Houston has a few question on the defensive side of the ball coming into the season and because of that, I think this game’ll be a little closer than this spread would indicate. Great value, play on Rice. T.M. Predicted Score: 35-20 Houston. | |||||||
09-01-18 | Oregon State +39 v. Ohio State | 31-77 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 8 m | Show | |
T.M. Selection: Oregon State (8* BLACK-LABEL BLOWOUT). Oregon State was just 1-11 last year, while Ohio State went 12-2. This is a match-up of David vs. Goliath and while I’m not going to predict Goliath coming through with a TKO here, I do expect the lowly Beavers to do just enough to cover with this sizeable spread. Oregon State averaged 20.7 PPG and allowed 43. The worst in the entire FBS. Jake Luton had 853 yards, four TD’s and four INT’s before going down with injury, but he’s back and ready to go in 2018/19. Several starters return in key positions on both sides of the ball, so some small amount of progression seems imminent to me. Last year Ohio State averaged 41.1 PPG and allowed just 19. QB Dwayne Haskins led the team to a win over Michigan last year and he’s been named the starter this season. He has a wealth of talent surrounding him, but there’s no question that the pressure is on Haskins’ young shoulders now. I think Ohio State comes out a little flat footed and gets caught looking past. No upset, but closer than expected. Grab the points. T.M. Predicted Score: 40-24 Ohio State. |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,310 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Joey Tron | $512 |
Ross Benjamin | $483 |
Ricky Tran | $405 |
Jimmy Boyd | $370 |
Sean Murphy | $269 |
Sean Higgs | $214 |
Kyle Hunter | $176 |
Mike Lundin | $162 |