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Super Bowl 51 – The Numbers Just Don’t Add Up

February 2nd, 2017

The projected total for Super Bowl 51 is currently sitting at 58.5 (a record high). This comes after the NFC Championship game between the Packers and the Falcons closed with a playoff record high total of 59.5 (one point higher). That game lived up to expectations, with Atlanta winning by a score of 44-21. Eight different players scored touchdowns in that game, and plenty of money was made by bettors who play the prop market.

Despite expectations of record scoring, the bookmakers failed to adjust the prices for individual players to score touchdowns, and offered low totals on receptions and total yards for receivers. I wrote a couple of articles, detailing what I felt was a “Big Mistake” by bookmakers. In one of those articles I listed my top nine players to score touchdowns, and seven of those players ended up finding “pay dirt”, which would have been quite profitable considering five of those players were paying out as underdogs.

It doesn’t look like the books have made any adjustments for the Super Bowl, certainly not when it comes to individual players to score touchdowns. Lets have a look at the top players from each team:

1: Julio Jones -$134
(4 TDs last 4 games)
Jones had nine catches for 180 yards and two TDs in the NFC Championship game. He’s been unstoppable when healthy, no matter who’s covering him. He did get the better of Seattle’s Richard Sherman twice this year.
2: Devonta Freeman -$134 (6 TDs last 5 games)
Freeman is not your typical running back, and he does have to split the workload with Coleman. He scored eight rushing TDs in his final eight games of the regular season.
3: LeGarrette Blount -$125 (18 TDs this season)
Blount had an NFL best 18 rushing TDs during the regular season.
4: Julian Edelman -$105 (2 TDs last 3 games)
Edelman is coming off three straight 100+ yard games.
5: Tevin Coleman +$137 (6 TDs last 6 games)
Coleman has been getting almost as many carries as Freeman the last few weeks, and he’s been just as productive.
6: Dion Lewis +$137 (3 TDs last 2 games)
He scored three TDs in the win over the Texans a few weeks ago, including a kick return for a TD.
7: Mohamed Sanu +$175 (3 TDs last 3 games)
If the Patriots decide to double Jones, Sanu could have a big game. He would also be the top WR if Jones gets injured (as he often does).
8: Chris Hogan +$175 (2 TDs last game)
Hogan doesn’t get as many targets as most guys, but he’s often involved in big plays. He had four catches for 95 yards against the Texans. Then he broke out with nine catches for 180 yards and two TDs in the win over Pittsburgh.

While the odds are better than they should be for all of these players, I have narrowed it down to just five. If you want to get more detailed information on my player prop bets, you can signup for my newsletter @ (100% FREE).

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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.

Career Highlights:

- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)

- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)

- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)

- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)

- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)

- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)

Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.

Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.

Signature Plays:

AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.

The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.

TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.

GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.

HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available