Super Bowl 51 – The Numbers Just Don’t Add Up
The projected total for Super Bowl 51 is currently sitting at 58.5 (a record high). This comes after the NFC Championship game between the Packers and the Falcons closed with a playoff record high total of 59.5 (one point higher). That game lived up to expectations, with Atlanta winning by a score of 44-21. Eight different players scored touchdowns in that game, and plenty of money was made by bettors who play the prop market.
Despite expectations of record scoring, the bookmakers failed to adjust the prices for individual players to score touchdowns, and offered low totals on receptions and total yards for receivers. I wrote a couple of articles, detailing what I felt was a “Big Mistake” by bookmakers. In one of those articles I listed my top nine players to score touchdowns, and seven of those players ended up finding “pay dirt”, which would have been quite profitable considering five of those players were paying out as underdogs.
It doesn’t look like the books have made any adjustments for the Super Bowl, certainly not when it comes to individual players to score touchdowns. Lets have a look at the top players from each team:
1: Julio Jones -$134 (4 TDs last 4 games)
Jones had nine catches for 180 yards and two TDs in the NFC Championship game. He’s been unstoppable when healthy, no matter who’s covering him. He did get the better of Seattle’s Richard Sherman twice this year.
2: Devonta Freeman -$134 (6 TDs last 5 games)
Freeman is not your typical running back, and he does have to split the workload with Coleman. He scored eight rushing TDs in his final eight games of the regular season.
3: LeGarrette Blount -$125 (18 TDs this season)
Blount had an NFL best 18 rushing TDs during the regular season.
4: Julian Edelman -$105 (2 TDs last 3 games)
Edelman is coming off three straight 100+ yard games.
5: Tevin Coleman +$137 (6 TDs last 6 games)
Coleman has been getting almost as many carries as Freeman the last few weeks, and he’s been just as productive.
6: Dion Lewis +$137 (3 TDs last 2 games)
He scored three TDs in the win over the Texans a few weeks ago, including a kick return for a TD.
7: Mohamed Sanu +$175 (3 TDs last 3 games)
If the Patriots decide to double Jones, Sanu could have a big game. He would also be the top WR if Jones gets injured (as he often does).
8: Chris Hogan +$175 (2 TDs last game)
Hogan doesn’t get as many targets as most guys, but he’s often involved in big plays. He had four catches for 95 yards against the Texans. Then he broke out with nine catches for 180 yards and two TDs in the win over Pittsburgh.
While the odds are better than they should be for all of these players, I have narrowed it down to just five. If you want to get more detailed information on my player prop bets, you can signup for my newsletter @ www.JesseSchule.com (100% FREE).
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Prior to the 2017 NBA Finals, The Iceman released six series proposition bets. He cashed in ALL SIX, going a PERFECT 6-0 with NBA FINALS FUTURES! He followed up in 2018 by going 5-2 with Finals futures, and then last year he SHOCKED THE WORLD picking the RAPTORS to win outright. He then swept the 2020 Finals with LA -1.5, LA & GM1 and LeBron MVP!
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The Iceman's PERFECT 5-0 Super Bowl LII card featured a play on the total, as well as a handful of player performance props. He's made a small fortune exploiting weak lines in the props and futures markets, and he sees INCREDIBLE value with one particular team to win next year's Super Bowl.
Free picks
This is a Free play on Chelsea.
Chelsea got off to a solid start, but with all the money spent on high end talent in the offseason expectations were not met. Recent struggles have cost manager and former star player Frank Lampard his job, and former PSG manager Thomas Tuchel will take over. This is an opportunity for young Chelsea players to make an impression with their new manager, and we should see a solid effort from the Blues at home versus Wolves. Wolverhampton is not a strong away side, with a goal differential of -7 in nine matches. Chelsea has a solid home record, with a goal differential of +8 in nine home matches.
GL,
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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
| Match Up | Pick | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah State vs UNLV | OVER 137 -113 | Premium | 56-59 | Loss | -113 | Show |
PICKS IN PROGRESS
This is a 5* play on Southampton.
Arsenal was knocked out of the FA Cup losing 1-0 to Southapmton over the weekend, and Aubameyang did not play due to personal reasons. Southampton has the fourth best home record in the Premier League, earning points in six of nine home games. They have also earned points in three of their last four matches against Arsenal. This looks like a pretty even matchup, and a draw would be no surprise here. These two teams are separated by just two points in the table, and by just one goal in goal differential.
GL,
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This is an 8* play on the Under.
The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have averaged just 57 points per game in their last four, and they are 2-2 during that span. They are excellent on defense, holding opponents to fewer than 63 points per game this season. The Temple Owls know a thing or two about playing defense, and we can expect a real defensive battle here in Philly. The under is 8-2 in the Owls last 10 overall, and they have failed to reach the total in five of their last six home games. The Owls have gone under in seven of their last eight versus teams with a winning record.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is a 6* play on the Kings +1.5.
The Kings have lost four of their first six games, but three of those four losses came by just one goal. They come into Minnesota as winners of two of their last three, and these two teams have a history of playing close games. The last two meetings each went to overtime, and five of the last 10 meetings were decided in overtime or shootout. The Wild are just 3-7 in their last 10 home games, and asking them to cover the puckline seems like a tough ask.
GL,
Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on the Jets.
I bet on the Jets in their last game against Ottawa, and I can't pass up on betting Winnipeg as a home dog versus the Oilers. Here is what I said prior to their win over the Jets: "The Jets are coming off back to back wins in Ottawa, and they return home for a third consecutive game against the Senators. The Sens have struggled against the Jets dating back the last few years. The Jets have won eight of the last 10 head to head meetings. The Senators are 11-40 in their last 51 games as a road underdog, and they have lost six straight in the second game of a home and home series. Connor Hellebuyck is the reigning Vezina winner, and he looked sharp in a 4-1 win over the Senators in his last start. He is expected to be back between the pipes Saturday."
GL,
Jesse Schule
SERVICE BIO
WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
Career Highlights:
- Perfect 5-0 Super Bowl Card (2018)
- Perfect 6-0 NBA Finals Futures (2017)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2019)
- Perfect 3-0 NBA Finals Futures (2020)
- Perfect 8-0 card X-Mas Day (2016)
- Perfect 8-0 NCAA Tourney picks Sweet 16 - Final (2015)
- Picked Germany +$700 to win World Cup (2014)
- Picked Marcus Mariota +$700 to win Heisman (2014)
Handicapping Methodology: Jesse is not a believer in systems, programs or number crunching formulas to handicap games. He is firm in his belief that you aren't playing against the sportsbook, you are playing against the average Joe (other bettors). Jesse is notorious for attacking inflated point spreads, soft lines and totals that are a little out of whack. He also relies on a nearly photographic memory with an uncanny ability to tell you a player's history and stats dating back for decades. Anyone can look up how many touchdowns a guy has scored, Jesse can also tell you about the ones that he almost scored.
Money Management: His plays are rated based on a 5-10 star system, and he recommends wagering 0.2 percent of your bankroll per star rating. So a top rated 10* play would represent a bet equal to two percent of a player's bankroll.
Signature Plays:
AFTERNOON EXECUTIONER: This title is reserved for games with a start time between 12:00 – 4:30 ET. These are popular with action junkies who are dying for the games to get underway.
The TERMINATOR: Jesse's signature totals play, the Terminator has established a reputation as one of the most consistent winners in Schule's repertoire.
TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE: These plays represent a game where the stats show a significant trend which isn't reflected in the price.
GRIM REAPER BLOWOUT: His signature play reserved for medium to large favorites. High percentage plays for those who don't mind laying chalk.
HOT DIGGITY DOG: This is the Iceman's signature underdog play. About as rare as strawberries in December, you'll want to grab these whenever they are available
Top Cappers L7 Days
| Service | Profit |
|---|---|
| Ben Burns | $1,551 |
| Chip Chirimbes | $902 |
| Jimmy Boyd | $898 |
| Big Al McMordie | $717 |
| Sean Higgs | $684 |
| Will Rogers | $495 |
| Ricky Tran | $449 |
| ASA | $359 |
| Ray Monohan | $322 |
| Jim Feist | $217 |
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