Super Bowl 51 – The Numbers Just Don’t Add Up
The projected total for Super Bowl 51 is currently sitting at 58.5 (a record high). This comes after the NFC Championship game between the Packers and the Falcons closed with a playoff record high total of 59.5 (one point higher). That game lived up to expectations, with Atlanta winning by a score of 44-21. Eight different players scored touchdowns in that game, and plenty of money was made by bettors who play the prop market.
Despite expectations of record scoring, the bookmakers failed to adjust the prices for individual players to score touchdowns, and offered low totals on receptions and total yards for receivers. I wrote a couple of articles, detailing what I felt was a “Big Mistake” by bookmakers. In one of those articles I listed my top nine players to score touchdowns, and seven of those players ended up finding “pay dirt”, which would have been quite profitable considering five of those players were paying out as underdogs.
It doesn’t look like the books have made any adjustments for the Super Bowl, certainly not when it comes to individual players to score touchdowns. Lets have a look at the top players from each team:
1: Julio Jones -$134 (4 TDs last 4 games)
Jones had nine catches for 180 yards and two TDs in the NFC Championship game. He’s been unstoppable when healthy, no matter who’s covering him. He did get the better of Seattle’s Richard Sherman twice this year.
2: Devonta Freeman -$134 (6 TDs last 5 games)
Freeman is not your typical running back, and he does have to split the workload with Coleman. He scored eight rushing TDs in his final eight games of the regular season.
3: LeGarrette Blount -$125 (18 TDs this season)
Blount had an NFL best 18 rushing TDs during the regular season.
4: Julian Edelman -$105 (2 TDs last 3 games)
Edelman is coming off three straight 100+ yard games.
5: Tevin Coleman +$137 (6 TDs last 6 games)
Coleman has been getting almost as many carries as Freeman the last few weeks, and he’s been just as productive.
6: Dion Lewis +$137 (3 TDs last 2 games)
He scored three TDs in the win over the Texans a few weeks ago, including a kick return for a TD.
7: Mohamed Sanu +$175 (3 TDs last 3 games)
If the Patriots decide to double Jones, Sanu could have a big game. He would also be the top WR if Jones gets injured (as he often does).
8: Chris Hogan +$175 (2 TDs last game)
Hogan doesn’t get as many targets as most guys, but he’s often involved in big plays. He had four catches for 95 yards against the Texans. Then he broke out with nine catches for 180 yards and two TDs in the win over Pittsburgh.
While the odds are better than they should be for all of these players, I have narrowed it down to just five. If you want to get more detailed information on my player prop bets, you can signup for my newsletter @ www.JesseSchule.com (100% FREE).
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This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go under the total.
The Warriors haven't been as dominant this season as they have been in recent years, and they come into Denver trailing the Nuggets by a half game for top spot in the West. Denver has been successful thanks to their 4th best defense that allows just 105.5 points per game. History tells us that these teams have played strong defense in past meetings. Three of the last four head to head meetings have gone under the total. Given that the winner of this game will take over first place in the Western Conference Standings, we could see a game with a playoff atmosphere. The under is 9-2 in Nuggets last 11 home games versus teams with a winning road record. I think tonight's total looks a little high.
Take Under.
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This is an 8* play on Over 139.5.
The Boilermakers are coming off an 84-80 win over Wisconsin, and high scoring games have been the norm for Purdue this year. They have gone over in six of their last eight overall, and the over is 5-1 in their last 6 home games versus teams with a losing road record. They have scored 79.4 points per game in their last five overall, but they have also conceded more than 70 points per game during that span. They scored exactly 82 points in each of their last two home games against Rutgers. The over is 6-1 in the Scarlet Knights last seven versus the Big Ten. Purdue won the last meeting 82-75, and I expect a similar score tonight.
Take Over.
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Jesse Schule
This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go Under the total.
The Anaheim Ducks have lost 11 straight overall, and they come into the Motor City as a desperate hockey club. They are still in the hunt, just two points out of a playoff spot, so there's no reason to expect them to give up on the season just yet. Offense has been hard to come by for the Ducks, ranking 30th in the NHL in scoring. Goals have been hard to come by for Detroit as well, and that's especially true in previous meetings with the Ducks. Anaheim is 3-1 in the last four meetings, and Detroit has only scored six goals in those games. Three of the four games went under the total. The under is 8-3-2 in the Ducks last 13 overall, and 34-15-2 in their last 51 road games.
Take Under.
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WHO IS THE ICEMAN? He’s no soothsayer and he doesn’t have a crystal ball, but Jesse Schule can indeed predict the future. As a professional handicapper, it’s actually part of his job description. His clients have accused him of secretly possessing Marty McFly’s Sports Almanac, but he tells us the secret to his success is thanks in part to his fascination with history. The idea that you can predict the future by studying the past is nothing new. Historians have been doing it for years.
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