Super Bowl 51 – The Numbers Just Don’t Add Up

February 2nd, 2017

The projected total for Super Bowl 51 is currently sitting at 58.5 (a record high). This comes after the NFC Championship game between the Packers and the Falcons closed with a playoff record high total of 59.5 (one point higher). That game lived up to expectations, with Atlanta winning by a score of 44-21. Eight different players scored touchdowns in that game, and plenty of money was made by bettors who play the prop market.

Despite expectations of record scoring, the bookmakers failed to adjust the prices for individual players to score touchdowns, and offered low totals on receptions and total yards for receivers. I wrote a couple of articles, detailing what I felt was a “Big Mistake” by bookmakers. In one of those articles I listed my top nine players to score touchdowns, and seven of those players ended up finding “pay dirt”, which would have been quite profitable considering five of those players were paying out as underdogs.

It doesn’t look like the books have made any adjustments for the Super Bowl, certainly not when it comes to individual players to score touchdowns. Lets have a look at the top players from each team:

1: Julio Jones -$134 (4 TDs last 4 games)
Jones had nine catches for 180 yards and two TDs in the NFC Championship game. He’s been unstoppable when healthy, no matter who’s covering him. He did get the better of Seattle’s Richard Sherman twice this year.
2: Devonta Freeman -$134 (6 TDs last 5 games)
Freeman is not your typical running back, and he does have to split the workload with Coleman. He scored eight rushing TDs in his final eight games of the regular season.
3: LeGarrette Blount -$125 (18 TDs this season)
Blount had an NFL best 18 rushing TDs during the regular season.
4: Julian Edelman -$105 (2 TDs last 3 games)
Edelman is coming off three straight 100+ yard games.
5: Tevin Coleman +$137 (6 TDs last 6 games)
Coleman has been getting almost as many carries as Freeman the last few weeks, and he’s been just as productive.
6: Dion Lewis +$137 (3 TDs last 2 games)
He scored three TDs in the win over the Texans a few weeks ago, including a kick return for a TD.
7: Mohamed Sanu +$175 (3 TDs last 3 games)
If the Patriots decide to double Jones, Sanu could have a big game. He would also be the top WR if Jones gets injured (as he often does).
8: Chris Hogan +$175 (2 TDs last game)
Hogan doesn’t get as many targets as most guys, but he’s often involved in big plays. He had four catches for 95 yards against the Texans. Then he broke out with nine catches for 180 yards and two TDs in the win over Pittsburgh.

While the odds are better than they should be for all of these players, I have narrowed it down to just five. If you want to get more detailed information on my player prop bets, you can signup for my newsletter @ www.JesseSchule.com (100% FREE).

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Match Up	Pick	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Analysis
Raiders vs Cardinals	Cardinals -5 -102	Free	23-21	Loss	-102	Show
This is a Free NFL play on the Arizona Cardinals. The Oakland Raiders are a hot mess, and a week without practice due to the wild fires in Northern California isn't going to help matters. They rank 24th in the NFL in total defense, allowing over 30 points per game. There's no doubt that this organization is tanking, focusing on the future. Arizona might not be going to the playoffs, but they have looked more competitive in recent weeks. Josh Rosen threw for 252 yards and two TDs on 23-of-40 passing in a win over San Francisco in his last home game. Once a fantasy football legend, it's been a quiet season for David Johnson. He's shown signs of returning to his former glory in recent weeks, coming off back to back games with 100+ total yards from scrimmage. The Raiders rank 29th in the NFL in rushing defense, so it figures to be a good matchup for Johnson. GL, Jesse Schule
Texas A&M vs Minnesota	UNDER 151½ -110	Premium	64-69	Win	100	Show
This is an 8* play on [email protected] to go Under the total. Both these teams have played high scoring games early in the season, and because of that we see an inflated total for tonight's game. The Aggies are far from a run and gun team, despite averaging over 80 points per game so far. The majority of their points came in a 98-83 win over Savannah in their season opener. The have shot just over 22 percent from beyond the arc, and 66 percent from the free throw line. Minnesota scored 104 points against a Nebraska Omaha team that can't even think about playing defense, but then won by a score of 78-69 over Utah in their last game. I expect a similar score here tonight. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule
Eagles vs Saints	OVER 56 -103	Top Premium	7-48	Loss	-103	Show
This is a 10* play on [email protected] to go Over the total. The Eagles will need to score plenty of points if they want to hang with the Saints at the Superdome on Sunday. That's even more true given all the injuries in the secondary for Philly. Carson Wentz might have some success against a Saints defense that was lit up for 391 yards by Jared Goff in a 45-35 win in their last home game. The Saints have scored 40+ in three of their four home games this season. These two teams have gone over the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings, and Philly won the last meeting by a score of 39-17. I expect the Eagles to score their share here in a shootout in the BIG EASY! Take Over. GL, Jesse Schule
Panthers vs Lions	Panthers -185	Premium	19-20	Loss	-185	Show
7*
Texans vs Redskins	Texans -133	Premium	23-21	Win	100	Show
This is an 8* play on the Houston Texans. Washington did it with "smoke and mirrors" last week, winning 16-3 at Tampa. The Bucs racked up over 500 total yards but turned the ball over four times and failed to capitalize on several opportunities. Washington is still severely shorthanded, with several injuries on the offensive line. That hurt Adrian Peterson last week, as he was held to 68 yards and no TDs on 19 carries. This doesn't bode well for Washington as they host the Houston Texans who are coming off a bye week. Houston is one of the hottest teams in the NFL, and they should have their way with this banged up Redskins team. Take HOU. GL, Jesse Schule
Vikings vs Bears	Vikings +3 -122	Top Premium	20-25	Loss	-122	Show
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears have looked really good this season, coming into this weekend's home game against the Vikings with a 6-3 record, sitting first in the NFC North. The Vikings are hot on their heels, and at 5-3-1 they have navigated a much tougher schedule. Two of those three losses came against the #1 and #2 ranked teams in the league (Saints and Rams). Coming off a bye week, Minnesota is as healthy as it has been all year. Dalvin Cook is back, and he had over 100 yards from scrimmage in the win over Detroit. Minnesota has had success on the road, they are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 road games. The most significant number to me is ZERO! That's the number of wins Chicago has versus teams with a winning record this season. The Bears are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 versus teams with a winning record. Take MIN. GL, Jesse Schule

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Super Bowl 51 – The Numbers Just Don’t Add Up

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