Nick Parsons Premium Picks

This is a TOTAL ANNIHILATION play on the OVER Chargers/Patriots.

I love the way this one sets up to be more of a high-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring defensive battle.

LA finished 11-6, including 5-3 on the road, while New England was 14-3 overall, including 6-3 at home.

The Chargers dropped their final two games of the season, including a 19-3 setback at Denver in Week 18, while New England closed the regular-season with three straight victories, including a 38-10 beatdown of Miami here at home in the finale.

These teams haven't played since December 24th, 2024, and the Chargers won here by a score of 40-7.

The tale of the tape, as far as their offensive and defensive numbers are concerned, LA averages 21.6 points per game, which is ranked 20th, while allowing 20.0, which is ranked ninth, while New England averages 28.8 points per game, which is ranked second, while allowing 18.8, which is ranked fourth.

At this time of year, you have to always take into account the weather conditions when betting totals, and one of the biggest reasons I like this play on the over is simply because it's going to be  pretty much perfect weather conditions to play in.

The current forecast calls for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 20's. So, with no snow or rain in the forecast, and with winds not expected to top 20 MPH, Foxborough is going to be clean.

We have two above-average defenses facing two dynamic, play-making quarterbacks, and in my opinion, it's going to be the men under center that dictate the winner of this game, in what I foresee being a classic "shootout."

Drake Maye is an MVP candidate, and he has Mike Vrabel in line for the Coach of the Year award.

Maye is going to be looking to put on a show here in the first playoff game at Foxboro since Brady and Belichick in 2019.

The Chargers' defense, which I just mentioned, has, in fact, faltered of late if we look at the numbers a bit closer, allowing 100-plus rushing yards in each of the last two games.

I do LEAN towards New England here, but feel that the total is the sharper move. I really like Patriots' running back Rhamondre Stevenson and think he will likely have a big game based upon his recent form, as he's rushed for 178 yards and three touchdowns on 11.9 yards per carry over the last two weeks, while also hauling in seven catches for 77 yards and two more touchdowns.

Justin Herbert and the Chargers are going to have to keep pace with Maye and this high-flying Patriots offense if they have any shot of pulling off the upset on the road in this one. He finished with 3,727 passing yards and 26 touchdowns. However, Herbert also has 13 interceptions this season, which is the highest total of his career so far.

And when these defenses do make an impact, most likely it'll be to set up their offenses in a great position.

As I say, I think it'll be Herbert and Maye that are the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest, and because of that, I like the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is an ATS BLOOD-BATH on the 49ers.

I think this is going to be a very competitive battle until the final moment, and because of that, I'm grabbing the points in this one.

The line move shows that sharp money has come in on Philadelphia, but I think the Eagles are going to have their hands full this weekend, and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm backing the road dog.

San Francisco was great on the road as well, going 7-2 straight up and against the spread.

Philadelphia was 5-3 straight up and 4-4 against the spread at home.

The 49ers came out flat against a red-hot Seattle defense that was playing with revenge in Week 18, as San Francisco fell 13-3 last weekend.

Prior to that, though, the 49ers had won six in a row, scoring 214 points and allowing just 128 over that span.

They also beat the Seahawks 17-13 in Seattle in Week 1 in what was another really tight and competitive battle.

Seattle, though, is No. 1 in the league on the defensive end this year, allowing 17.2 points per game.

Philadelphia isn't a slouch defensively either, as the defending champs only concede 19.1 points per game.

Where Jalen Hurts and the Eagles took a big step backwards this season was on the offensive end, as they enter this contest averaging just 22.3 points per game, which is ranked 19th. Note as well that Philadelphia also ended the regular season with a loss, falling 24-17 at home to Washington.

Jalen Hurts finished with 3,224 passing yards and 15 touchdowns, while Saquon Barkley finished with 1,140 rushing yards.

On the other side of the field, Christian McCaffrey and the 49ers average 25.7 points per game, which is ranked tenth, while allowing 21.8, which is ranked 13th.

Brock Purdy missed a few games due to injury, but returned and looked good and finished with 2,167 passing yards and 20 touchdowns.

McCaffrey led the way on the ground with 1,202 rushing yards, and he also led the team in receptions with 102 for 924 receiving yards.

Does it matter that the 49ers have won each of their last six games against NFC East opponents?

It certainly doesn't hurt! Also note that Purdy has recorded 230-plus passing yards in eight of his last nine road appearances vs. NFC opponents.

Recent form also needs to be taken into consideration here. Their Week 18 losses aside, the 49ers are 6-1 straight up and 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games, while the Eagles are 3-4 SU and ATS over their last seven.

And for whatever reason, San Francisco has enjoyed plenty of success here over the last half-decade, going 3-2 in its last five visits to Philadelphia.

I really respect Philadelphia and Hurts, but I'll argue that McCaffrey and Purdy, the rest of the 49ers, are the hungrier team, and I expect them to play like it.

The outright is not out of the question whatsoever, but my official call is to grab as many points as you can with SAN FRANCISCO.

Good luck, NP

This is a WC GOY on the Jaguars.

I like the Jags to find a way to get the job done here at home on Sunday afternoon.

Buffalo finished 12-5 overall, including 5-3 straight up and 4-4 against the spread on the road, while Jacksonville was 13-4 overall, including 7-2 SU and ATS at home.

The Jags arguably closed out the regular-season as the hottest team in the league with eight straight wins. Over that stretch, Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville posted 269 points and conceded only 116.

Overall, Jacksonville averages 27.9 points per game, which ranks sixth, while conceding 19.8, which ranks eighth.

They allow 218.1 yards per game through the air, which ranks 21st, but they concede only 85.6 yards per game on the ground, which ranks first.

On the other side of the field, Josh Allen and the Bills average 28.3 points per game, which ranks fifth, while allowing 21.5, which ranks 12th.

The Bills were solid down the stretch as well, winning five of their last six, with their only loss being a 13-12 setback at home to Philly as a three-point favorite in Week 17.

The Bills are No. 1 against the pass, allowing 156.9 yards per game, while No. 28 against the run, allowing 136.2 rushing yards per contest.

Buffalo has been flirting with the Playoffs for a while now, but I'll argue that Lawrence and the Jaguars are the much hungrier and more motivated team, because just one year after finishing 4-13, they now enter this Wildcard game as the home side and off a 13-win regular-season.

Lawrence has been steadily progressing the last few years, but it's been under coach Liam Coen that he's taken another big step in that journey of progression.

Coen was approached by reporters after the regular-season finale in which they decimated Tennessee by a score of 41-7, and he had this to say about the resiliency of his team this season:

"I think it's this group specifically, as so many times we've talked after Houston is really dug in and really treated every week like a playoff game," Coen told reporters. "Trevor, I think said it best yesterday was like we were in must-wins to win the division, and to be in the situation that we're in, we kind of treated them all that way, and it was one and all each week. And I think the no flinch, no blank mentality of playing four-quarter football games and for 60 minutes or longer is the mentality."

It also doesn't hurt that Lawrence is 2-1 against Buffalo in his career. Also note that dating back to Week 13, Lawrence has thrown just a single interception.

Allen is an "X" factor, obviously. If he has an exceptional game, Buffalo will likely win.

But if he doesn't have one of the best games of his career, then I see the Jaguars winning this one handily.

But Lawrence's numbers over the last two months are better in every metric over Allen's, so the fact of the matter is, is that there isn't an advantage here for the Bills' dynamic pivot whatsoever in this quarterback matchup.

Both teams have their work cut out for them today, but I think the situational factors working in favor of Jacksonville that I just outlined (the home-field advantage and the fact that Lawrence's numbers are superior over the last eight weeks) tip the scales in favor of the JAGUARS on Sunday afternoon.

Good luck, NP