Nick Parsons Premium Picks

This is a X-MAS DAY SIDE WINNER on the Lions.

The Vikings, ironically, enter this game probably playing their best football of the season, having won three straight, but they're 7-8 overall, including only 2-4 at home, and they've already been officially eliminated from Wildcard contention.

Detroit, on the other hand, and also ironically, enters playing its worst football of the year, having lost two of three, including two in a row, but it's still 8-7 overall, including just 3-4 on the road.

Detroit hasn't been eliminated from contention yet, but it will need to win out and get some outside help.

After this, the Lions are in Chicago, so clearly, the road ahead isn't going to get any easier for Jared Goff and company either.

It's do or die, now or never, time to get the momentum rolling, and whatever other motivating cliche you want to use to describe the moment for the Lions, and if they can play up to their potential, then they'll have no issues not only winning this game, but also going on to cover the spread as well easily.

And that's what I'm expecting, finally, from Detroit, for a few different reasons.

Detroit plays with the added incentive of revenge as well after a 27-24 loss to Minnesota at home at the start of November as a 9.5-point favorite, and note that looking back finds the Lions 7-2 against the spread in their last nine in trying to avenge a straight-up and against-the-spread home loss as a favorite vs. a divisional opponent.

The Lions are still averaging 30.1 points per game, which ranks second in the league, while allowing 24.9, which ranks 23rd.

The Vikings average 20.3 points per game, which ranks 26th, while allowing 21.3, which ranks 11th.

Minnesota quarterback JJ McCarthy is listed as questionable for this contest (as of writing), and will likely end up missing this game, but if he does play, clearly he won't be at 100% health (hand).

The Lions will be leaning on and counting on running back Jahmyr Gibbs to get back on track this week after a disastrous start in the most recent loss to the Steelers (I had Pittsburgh as one of my Circa picks last week). He'd finish with only two rushing yards on seven carries.

Gibbs alleviates a lot of the pressure off Goff, so he'll be key for Minnesota if it wants to win.

Yes, the Vikings are playing extremely well right now, but they've already beaten Detroit once this season, and they've now been eliminated from Playoff contention.

Despite this being a national stage on Christmas Day, I don't think playing the role of "spoiler" will be enough of a motivating factor for the home side to play like their lives are on the line.

However, that's exactly the kind of effort I'm expecting out of Goff, out of Gibbs, and the rest of the revenge-minded Lions.

I mean, what better stage than this to show everyone that you're still relevant?

This is a big-time public play, which goes against my contrarian nature, but despite that, I believe DETROIT is absolutely the correct call in this spot.

Good luck, NP

This is a Western Conference TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Nuggets/Wolves.

As being primarily a situational capper, I love the way this one sets up to be more of a defensive battle, rather than a "run-and-gun" shootout.

Both teams have been playing in several high-scoring games to open up the young season, but I think the conditions are finally right for more of a defensive battle between two teams who will almost assuredly be in the thick of a playoff position at the end of the year.

Denver is 1-1 and Minnesota is 1-1. As of writing. And that's because I'm producing this video before knowing the result of the Wolves' home game against Indiana on Sunday.

They'll then play the second game of the back-to-back on Monday, so whether the Sunday game goes OVER or UNDER the number, it doesn't matter; fatigue for the home side is a driving factor behind this situational pick as well. Minnesota won't want to try and turn this into a potential shootout with the Nuggets, obviously.

The Nuggets lost 137-131 in OT in Golden State in their opener, before a 133-111 home win over Phoenix. Both games flew well OVER the posted number.

Minnesota held on for a 118-114 win at Portland on opening night, before a 128-110 loss at the Lakers two nights later as a favorite. And then, as mentioned, the Wolves play on Sunday at home against the Pacers.

After the Wolves welcome the Lakers at home, the schedule certainly isn't easy for Minnesota here over the first two weeks of the season.

The last regular-season game they played against each other resulted in a 140-139 OT upset win for the Wolves back on April 1st, but everything now finally points to this particular O/U line being inflated, so I'm on the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP