Nick Parsons Premium Picks

This is a TOTAL BK on the UNDER Wings/Oilers/

The Wings are 8-5-2 on the road, while the Oilers are 7-3-3 at home.

Edmonton plays with revenge following a 4-2 loss at Detroit in October, and note that the Oilers have seen the total dip below the posted number in six of their last eight in trying to avenge a road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.

Look for a competitive battle to produce a lower-scoring outcome; the play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a SUPER BLOWOUT on Western Carolina.

I think Western Carolina will sneak in under the radar here and post the solid ATS cover.

The Catamounts are off a 78-67 loss at USC Upstate, and I think they'll keep it competitive here against the Hokies as well.

They've faced some really good teams in Duke and Cincinnati already as well, so are battle-tested.

The Hokies are 5-0 at home are coming off a 73-62 win over George Mason at home, but they've so far faced a much easier schedule.

Their metrics aren't that far off. VT is the better team, but I say it comes in complacent here and I look for the CATAMOUNTS to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is a FREE PLAY on the Pittsburgh Penguins.

I had a play on Pittsburgh in its last game, and it held a 3-2 lead into the final minute of the game in its eventual 4-3 shootout loss to Anaheim.

To say that loss was frustrating, both for them and for my clients and me, would be an understatement.

Now they have a chance to take out their frustrations on the Canadiens, and at this price, I think Pittsburgh is worth the price of admission on Thursday night.

When we look at the Penguins we find that they're 14-7-7 overall, including 6-4-3 at home, while the Habs are 15-11-3 overall, including 8-3-2 on the road.

The Penguins now enter after back-to-back shootout losses, also falling 3-2 in a shootout at Dallas prior to the home loss to Anaheim on Tuesday.

Pittsburgh though is in a good spot to bounce back in, with San Jose, Utah and Edmonton all coming to town after this.

Montreal enters having lost two straight, most recently the 6-1 home loss to the Lightning on Tuesday.

With another tough road game at New York, I think this is a difficult position for the Habs to try and bounce back in.

Situationally speaking, this one favors the home side for sure in my opinion.

A quick tale of the tape finds Montreal averaging 3.2 goals per game, while allowing 3.5.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, averages 3.1 goals per game, while allowing 2.7.

Clearly, the difference comes on the defensive end.

I think it's important to look at their current form as well to determine this play, and looking at the Canadiens last two games sees them struggling to generate offense, while doing nothing to slow anyone down on the defensive end.

The Penguins, though, have been competitive in back-to-back shootout losses, and they had plenty of chances to put it away late in each game, it really was so close and could have gone either way.

When taking into account all of these situational factors, and combine it with this extremely reasonable line, the value for sure swings to the PENGUINS in this matchup on Thursday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a NFC TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Falcons/Buccaneers.

When the oddsmakers were putting together the 2025/26 season, this Thursday night matchup probably looked pretty good, but with the Atlanta Falcons having already packed it in on their playoff drive, the only thing they have to "play for" today is to try and play spoiler.

Tampa is still first in the NFC South, but it can ill afford to drop another divisional contest after last week's 24-20 home loss to New Orleans. I actually had the Saints as one of my Contest Picks in the CIRCA Millions and Super Contest out of Las Vegas.

Tampa has an interesting schedule to close out the year, with games at Carolina and Miami after this, followed by a home games against the Panthers to close out.

This is clearly a crucial game for Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay, before next week's divisional matchup at Carolina.

I'm not positive they'll be able to cover this mid-sized spread is the problem, but what I am expecting is that Atlanta is likely going to have issues on the offensive end again this weekend after last week's 37-9 loss to Seattle.

The Falcons and Seahawks were tied 6-6 going into the half, but the defense lost focus after the break, and the offense continued to struggle.

And I believe that offense will once again struggle here on the road.

The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 23-20 in Atlanta in Week 1, and Bakers Mayfield only had 167 yards passing, but three TDs.

Michael Penix Jr. had 298 passing yards and a touchdown for the Falcons in the loss, but he's been deactivated for the rest of the season and it's Kirk Cousins under center now.

Cousins was 15 of 30 for 162 yards, 0 touchdowns and two interceptions last weekend.

Bijan Robinson was a bright spot in defeat for Atlanta last week, running for 86 yards on 20 attempts, although he also had no touchdowns.

Tampa can't afford any slip ups and will be looking to execute mistake-free football.

And while that may or many not translate into a win and cover for the Buccaneers, I do believe that style of contest and overall tempo will help in making the final combined score a much lower one than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, so I'm on the UNDER in this one.

Good luck, NP