Nick Parsons Premium Picks

This is a FREE PLAY on the Toronto Maple Leafs.

I like playing on desperate teams, and after five straight losses, I'd say that it's the Leafs who are the much more desperate team in this fight.

St. Louis is 6-9-4 overall, while Toronto is 8-9-2.

The Blues are 3-4 on the road, while the Leafs are 7-4-2 at home.

But it's all hands on deck, do or die essentially for the Leafs on Tuesday in my opinion. As I said, I like playing motivated and desperate teams.

And they catch the Blues at a good time, as they come in with zero momentum after two straight losses of their own, most recently a poor 4-1 loss at home against Vegas.

Overall, the Blues are ranked 24th offensively, averaging 2.8 goals per game, while ranked 32nd defensively in conceding 3.8.

Toronto is averaging 3.6 goals per game this year, which is ranked fourth, but it's taken a huge step back here on the defensive end and between the pipes, tied with the Blues with the worst collective goals against average in the league at 3.8.

This will be a popular pick among the general betting public for all of the reasons I've listed above, but also because of the reasonable overall price.

I don't smell any upsets here, and I expect Toronto to come in focused and to finally deliver a half-decent, three-period effort, which will be more than enough to take care of this struggling Blues side.

I think this line could/should in fact be larger, and that's why I think the LEAFS are worth a "second look" on Tuesday night.

Good luck, NP

This is a MAC TOW on the UNDER Akron/Bowling Green.

As primarily a situational capper, where I'm looking at these College Football teams' schedules and their overall records, we've reached the point of the season where "motivation" plays a big part in whether a team will or won't cover the spread. At least from my viewpoint, anyway.

At 4-7, and with only one game remaining after this on the road at lowly Bowling Green, the Zips will not be able to qualify for a Bowl this season.

They played their last two games at home, beating UMass 44-10 as an 11.5-point favorite, before then falling 42-35 in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite at home to Kent State last week.

It was a devastating setback for Ben Finley and the Zips, and I think that a massive letdown is imminent here from the visiting side, with now nothing really to play for.

Can't even play spoiler, because Bowling Green is 3-7, and even if it wins this game, and next week's contest at Massachusetts, the Green Falcons will also not be heading to a Bowl game this year.

The Falcons have struggled with consistency on both sides of the ball, but mainly with their offense. They've lost four straight and posted 51 total points in the process.

In their last home game two weeks ago, they lost 28-3 to Buffalo as three-point favorites, with neither QB Drew Pine nor Hunter Najm connecting on a TD pass. In fact, they were a combined 11 of 28 for 100 yards and one interception.

Both teams are now looking ahead and planning for next season. The Green Falcons are favored at home here on Senior Night as they're still 3-2 at home, while Akron is only 1-4 on the road.

These teams are very similar on both sides of the ball. Each is struggling offensively coming into this one, and I don't see that changing now that they've both been mathematically eliminated from contention.

Each has been decent defensively of late, though.

The last time these teams played against each other, Bowling Green won 27-20 as a 16-point favorite last October. Clearly, a lot has changed since then for both sides.

But in that game, they combined for 20 points in the fourth quarter, and I don't see that happening this year.

Both teams still had a lot to play for last October, but now, here a year later in late November, that's not the case.

So, to circle back to what I was saying at the start, and taking into account everything I just listed, I think this contest sets up great from a situational standpoint to produce a lower-scoring final combined outcome.

The play is on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP