Nick Parsons Premium Picks

This is a TOP DOG on the Red Wings.

I think the Red Wings offer great value as a live home dog on Saturday night vs. the suddenly struggling Colorado Avalanche.

This is the first game of the year between the clubs, but it's the first of two straight between them, as they'll battle again in Colorado on Monday.

This is the final game of a tough four-game road trip for Colorado, and I smell another letdown.

The Avs are 35-8, but they enter having lost eight of their last 11, including two in a row.

And that includes a 5-2 loss at Ottawa and then a 7-3 loss at Montreal on Thursday.

The Wings are 32-17 and in second place in the Atlantic, and they enter having lost three of their last four. They were competitive in their most recent 4-3 shootout loss here to Washington.

The game at Colorado on Monday is the start of a difficult five-game road trip for Detroit, which puts added importance on this home contest on Saturday.

And as I eluded to, it's not too difficult to see the Avs getting caught "looking ahead" to their upcoming home schedule, despite having to play two straight against the Wings.

Situationally, I really like the way this one sets up for Detroit.

Colorado is still a highly respectable 15-6-5 at home, but Detroit is an even better 18-9-2 at home.

Despite their recent slump, the Avalanche enter averaging 3.9 goals per game, which ranks first in the NHL, while allowing 2.4, which also ranks first.

Further regression, though, feels imminent to me as we head towards the Olympic Break. Note, there won't be an All-Star game this year because of the Olympics.

Detroit averages 3.1 goals per game, which is ranked 18th, while allowing 3.0 goals per game, which is ranked 12th.

The projected starting goaltenders find Mackenzie Blackwood getting the start for Colorado, and he's 14-4-1 with a 2.44 goals against, while the home side counters with John Gibson, who is 21-10-2 with a 2.61 goals against.

For all intents and purposes, I think these netminders are a "wash," and they essentially cancel each other out in my equation for formulating my decision.

One bright spot for Detroit in its more recent difficult loss to Washington was that Patrick Kane passed Mike Modano for the most points by a United States-born player in NHL history when he recorded his 1,375th point with the secondary assist on Ben Chiarot’s second-period goal.

The bottom line for me on this one is that recent form, combined with what I view to be favorable scheduling, all combine to make DETROIT the correct call in this matchup at home on Saturday afternoon.

Good luck, NP