Warning: Use of undefined constant PAGE_HEADER - assumed 'PAGE_HEADER' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /home/profe126/jesseschule.com/respsportscapping.php on line 15
PAGE_HEADER

Siena has been an easy fade as the Saints are one of the worst teams in college basketball with a 4-22 record, including 3-12 in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference.

But I'm going to be on the Saints today getting this many points because Fairfield is in a major letdown spot. The Stags moved into second place in the MAAC after upsetting conference leader Quinnipiac, 85-81, as a road underdog just two days ago.

That was a great victory for Fairfield. The Stags, though, are not some great power. They have a losing ATS mark and have dropped four games at home.

Siena does have one good player, Sean Durugordon. He's averaging 19.4 points and 7.6 rebounds per game.

The Saints were only three-point 'dogs when they lost at home to Fairfield, 93-69, on Jan. 5. Now look at how high the point spread is.

Pepperdine has gone Over in five of its last six games. The Waves are averaging 90 points in their last two games, but their defense remains awful.

Pepperdine ranks 269th in scoring defense, 357th in defensive field goal percentage and 356th in 3-point defense. Just three games ago they yielded 103 points to St. Mary's, which is 27 points above the Gaels' season average. 

San Francisco certainly can exploit such a weak defense, especially at home. The Dons average 78.6 points. They rank 12th in field goal percentage. The Dons have scored at least 90 points in four of their last seven home games. 

Defensively, though, the Dons have surrendered 70 or more points in eight of their last 10 games.

Even though Cal-State Fullerton is playing at home, it's a surprise the Titans are favored. Cal-Northridge is the superior team. 

The Matadors average nine more points per game than Fullerton and defeated the Titans by five points at home on Jan. 13 as a four-point favorite. 

Northridge has proven itself on the road, too, winning eight times. This includes an eight-point upset win against Santa Barbara four games ago. 

Fullerton has lost five times already at home. The Titans are 1-5 in their last six overall games.

This is only the second time Duke is an underdog this season. The first came against North Carolina on the road. The Blue Devils lost to North Carolina. Since that defeat, though, Duke has won and covered five in a row.

Wake Forest is 14-0 at home, the only ACC team without a home loss. But the 17-9 Demon Deacons aren't as good as the 21-5 Blue Devils, who are 12-3 in the ACC compared to Wake Forest's 9-6 league mark.

I was far more impressed with Duke's 84-55 road victory against Miami this past Wednesday than Wake Forest's, 91-58, home victory against Pittsburgh, which shot just 29 percent from the field vs the Demon Deacons.

Duke handled Wake Forest, 77-69, as seven-point home favorites on Feb. 12. So I find plenty of line value on the Blue Devils as an underdog.

Quinnipiac is 10-2 in its last dozen games, but coming off an embarrassing home to Niagara. The Bobcats are superior to Fairfield, which is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games, and the price is low enough to back them.

The Bobcats rank 13th in the country in free throw percentage. Their free throw shooting and defensive field goal percentage is far better than Fairfield.

Quinnipiac didn't play that well in its first meeting with Fairfield this season committing 16 turnovers. The Stags made more free throws than the Bobcats, too. Yet the Bobcats still won. I expect them to play much better at home especially off a bad loss.

Troy is 7-1 in its last eight games. However, that one defeat came at home to Arkansas State, 82-71, last Thursday. 

The Trojans were 6 1/2-point favorites in that matchup. Now, a week later, they opened as underdogs to Arkansas State. 

I'm not buying that. It's not just rapid revenge for Troy. The Trojans are the superior team. Troy is 18-9 and 11-3 in the Sun Belt Conference, tied for second one game behind Appalachian State. Arkansas State is 13-4 overall and 8-6 in the Sun Belt. 

Both teams average 79 points. The difference comes on defense. Troy gives up 69.4 points a game. Arkansas State permits 78.4 points per game, which ranks 334th. The Red Wolves also are 300th in defensive field goal percentage. 

Don't expect Troy to have a second straight off-shooting game against Arkansas State. So I'll take the points with the superior team.

College of Charleston has a better record than Delaware, but I don't see the Cougars winning this game.

The Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games and surrender more than 76 points on the road. The Blue Hens are 5-1 in their last six games.

Delaware surrenders fewer than 70 points a game and ranks 38th in 3-point defense. The Blue Hens are giving up an average of 61.7 points in their last four games. College of Charleston is heavily reliant on hitting 3-pointers. The combination of being on the road and facing a strong 3-point defense will prove the undoing of College of Charleston in this one.

Air Force is the worst team in the Mountain West Conference. The Falcons are 1-11 in the conference and have lost 14 of their past 15 games. Guess who that one victory came against? Yep, it was against UNLV.

The Falcons stunned the Rebels, 90-58, as 10 1/2-point road 'dogs on Jan. 23. Air Force is 0-6 SU and ATS since then. Air Force made 14 of 28 3-pointers against the Rebels. 

Not only do the Rebels have revenge, but they also are in a kill mood after blowing an 11-point second-half lead in a 69-66 home loss to arch-rival Nevada this past Saturday. That loss snapped a five-game UNLV win streak. 

The Rebels are 14-10 on the season, 7-5 in the Mountain West Conference. They are a much better team than Air Force and should have huge motivation. Air Force ranks 315th in scoring at 67.9 points per game. The Falcons rank 337th in defensive field goal percentage and 354th in 3-point defense. 

Oh, yes, the Falcons also are 0-8 SU and ATS in their last eight home games.

Richmond is a couple of levels higher than Rhode Island, much closer to the elite of the Atlantic 10 Conference - Dayton and Loyola of Chicago - than below .500 where Rhode Island resides.

The Spiders are 13-2 in their last 15 games, riding a lot of momentum. Rhode Island has been going the opposite direction, losing seven of its past nine games. Richmond is 18-7 overall and 10-2 in the Atlantic 10. The Rams, by contrast, are 11-14 and have a losing conference record.

Richmond ranks 32nd defensively and ninth in defensive field goal percentage. The Rams are mediocre offensively and are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the nation making only 63.8 percent.

The Spiders have won five of the last six times on the road and have defeated Rhode Island five consecutive times.

There is no team Nevada gets more motivated to play then its in-state rival, UNLV. The Wolf Pack had lost four in a row to UNLV - until this past Saturday night.

Nevada rallied from nine points down to nip the Rebels, 69-66, as two-point road 'dogs. It was a very satisfying victory for the Wolf Pack. But it also puts the Wolf Pack in a letdown spot for this matchup against Wyoming.

The Cowboys are a respectable .500 Mountain West Conference team that has a winning overall record and a winning league road mark. They are not an easy opponent for Nevada. The Cowboys proved that back on Jan. 20 when they upset the Wolf Pack, 98-93, as seven-point home 'dogs. Now the line has doubled, which I find way too high.

UCF is 1-5 in its last six games and shouldn't be laying points on the road to West Virginia. The Mountaineers are finally healthy and have proven themselves at home having knocked off then No. 3 Kansas.

Just a couple of days after upsetting Kansas, West Virginia had to play at Central Florida and lost in that flat spot. RaeQuan Battle, the Mountaineers' leading scorer, was ejected with nearly 11 minutes left in that game.

Battle and the rest of the Mountaineers will be seeking revenge. Central Florida has been far less effective offensively when playing on the road, averaging 10 points fewer per 100 possessions.

I find this line to be off. Bowling Green was a whooping nine-point home favorite against Central Michigan on Feb. 3. Central Michigan upset Bowling Green, 77-76 in overtime. The Chippewas shot 51 percent from the floor in that game. Bowling Green had a terrible shooting game making only 33 percent of their field goals, 66 percent of their free throws and missing 33 of 40 shots from beyond the arc.

These teams are third and fourth in the MAC. Bowling Green has the better overall record. 

Central Michigan ranks 328th in scoring at 66.1 points a game. Bowling Green averages 75.8 points a game. I expect the Falcons to shoot much better and for Central Michigan to shoot much worse in this short revenge spot for Bowling Green.

Maybe it's because Houston dominated Texas this past Saturday holding the Longhorns to their lowest point total of the season in an 82-61 victory. But I find this line way too high on the Cougars.

So I'm on the Cyclones.

Yes, Houston has a 19-game home win streak and is ranked first in the country defensively. Iowa State, however, ranks seventh defensively in the nation, averages more points per game than the Cougars and is a better free throw shooting team.

The Cyclones have had the Cougars' number, too, winning seven of the past eight times. This includes a 57-53 home victory against Texas on Jan. 9 when the Cyclones were a much shorter underdog.    

Iowa State's T.J. Otzelberger is one of the top-five coaches in the country, in my view. The Cyclones are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Texas had failed to cover in its past four games before its victory against Texas.

Canisius is nothing great. But Siena is the Washington Generals of college basketball. Canisius is 9-15. Siena is 3-21 in its last 24 games. The Saints very well could be the worst offensive team in the country.

The Golden Griffins average 71.8 points a game. That's nearly 12 points more per game than the Saints.

Siena is averaging 60.1 points. That miniscule average shrinks even more to 54.2 points in its last eight games.

The Saints rank 360th in scoring, 354th in free throw accuracy, 348th in field goal percentage and 358th in 3-point percent.

Siena's below-average defense can't make up for its lack of offense. The Saints rank 278th defensively allowing 75.2 points a game.
Canisius defeated Siena, 67-63, on Jan. 12. The Saints have gotten worse since then losing eight of their last nine games.

The ACC has a tendency to bring down teams that are riding high. It's that competitive and prideful of a conference loaded with quality teams.

North Carolina State is one of those quality teams. But the Wolfpack find themselves in must-win mode if they hope to be considered for an NCAA Tournament berth after a four-point loss to Wake Forest and a three-point loss to Pittsburgh during their last two games.

Clemson is looking strong, winners of three in a row.

North Carolina State, though, has had a week to prepare and rest up for this specific matchup. The Wolfpack also have triple revenge for two regular season losses to the Tigers last season and a defeat in the ACC Tournament.

There hadn't been this much excitement about Indiana State since Larry Bird played for the Sycamores. Unfortunately for the 23rd-ranked Sycamores they are coming off a stunning home upset loss to 12-14 Illinois State this past Tuesday.

Indiana State coach Josh Schertz ripped his team following that defeat calling them soft and lacking toughness.

I'm expecting the Sycamores to be fired-up and to bury Southern Illinois even if Jayson Kent, their leading rebounder, can't play.

Southern Illinois was no match for Indiana State when the teams met earlier this season on Nov. 28. The Sycamores buried the Salukis, 77-48. Southern Illinois ranks 239th in defensive field goal percentage. The Salukis have allowed their past three opponents to shoot at least 50 percent from the field. Indiana State is the third-best shooting team in the country and ranks eighth in points per game at 84.9.

Despite their Top 25 ranking, Indiana State is not a lock to make the NCAA Tournament. The Sycamores lead Drake by just one game in the Missouri Valley Conference.

I don't see top-ranked Connecticut losing to Marquette at home. The Huskies have won 13 in a row and haven't forgotten how Marquette knocked them out of the Big East Conference Tournament last season.

There's not much to nit-pick about Marquette. I just don't trust the Golden Eagles on the road where they have lost to Seton Hall, Providence and Wisconsin.

Princeton has the best overall record of any team in the Ivy League at 17-3. Brown has one of the worst records at 6-16 with a 3-9 road mark.

The teams met two games ago on Feb. 3. Princeton beat the Bears, 70-60, covering as seven-point road favorites. The Tigers accomplished that despite a bad shooting game. They shot 44 percent from the floor and 27 percent from 3-point range. The Tigers' season average is 46.3 shooting from the field and 36.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Brown then lost as a 4 1/2-point home favorite to Columbia, 83-69, in its last game. I don't see Brown staying within this number on the road to Princeton. The Bears lost by double-digits to the Tigers at home when Princeton wasn't shooting well.

Princeton is 8-0 at home. The Tigers permit only 64.7 points per game, which ranks 23rd in the nation. The Tigers also are the second-best free throw shooting team in the country making 79.9 percent.

Brown is below par on both sides of the ball. The Bears average just 70 points and could be the worst free throw shooting team in the land making only 64.7 percent.

St. Peter's is an 11-11 average team that is in circle-the-wagons mode with a four-game losing streak following a 64-62 home loss to Fairfield, the second-best team in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Peacocks did cover that game, though, as 3 1/2-point 'dogs.
 
Look for the Peacocks to take out their frustrations out at home against a terrible Siena team that is 4-20 overall and 2-15 in its last 17 games. 

The Saints hosted St. Peter's on Jan. 28 and lost, 63-52. Siena turned the ball over 19 times in that game. That wasn't anything new. The Saints have the second-worst turnover rate in the nation, average just 60.4 points and shoot 39.9 percent from the floor. St. Peter's ranks 23rd defensively in turnover rate. The Peacocks rank 20th defensively holding foes to 64.6 points per game.

Going by the KenPom rankings, the Peacocks rank 233rd compared to Siena's 358th placement.

Queens is 9-3 at home. Jacksonville is 2-12 in true road games.

The teams met in Jacksonville on Jan. 18 with the home team winning, 79-77. The Dolphins shot 72.6 from the foul line in that game. Queens, by contrast, could make only 21 of 43 free throws for 49 percent. Queens shoots 70.6 percent from the foul line.

So I see Queens getting its revenge in this rematch.

Big Ten Conference basketball is all about defense and protecting your home floor. Both of these key factors are in play for Rutgers in this matchup.

The Scarlet Knights have won their last three games posting upset victories against Wisconsin at home and road wins against Michigan and Maryland. It's not a coincidence that these three victories have all come since Iowa State transfer Jeremiah Williams became eligible and played in his first three games for Rutgers. Williams sparked the Scarlet Knights to their, 78-56, upset of 11th-ranked Wisconsin this past Saturday by scoring 18 points, dishing off seven assists and grabbing five rebounds.

Williams provides offense and all-around play to the Scarlet Knights, who give up the 28th-fewest points in the nation and rank 13th in defensive field goal percentage.

Northwestern is much better at home than on the road. The Wildcats are 1-5 in their Big Ten away contests.

Pittsburgh upset Virginia when these teams last met last season. The Cavaliers won't let it happen again, especially at home where they are 13-0.

Virginia, in fact, has the longest home winning streak in NCAA Division I with 23 straight victories. 

Pittsburgh is fat and happy riding a three-game win streak. Two of those wins were in a favorite's role against Notre Dame and Wake Forest.

The Panthers' 3-point defense is showing signs of regression. That could prove crucial as the Cavaliers' strengths are their third-ranked defense and 15th-ranked 3-point shooting percentage. During the past four weeks, the Cavaliers are the fifth-hottest shooting 3-point team. 

You have to go back 12 years to find the last time Duquesne won at Dayton. I don't see the Dukes ending their long road losing streak here against the Flyers.

Dayton is ranked 16th, but coming off an ugly, 49-47, road loss to VCU this past Friday. The Flyers held VCU scoreless during the final 5:57, but still couldn't win because of their cold shooting. This was highly unusual since the Flyers rank seventh in 3-point shooting percentage.

That loss has put Dayton in a bounce back spot, while Duquesne is fat-and-happy after upsetting St. Bonaventure this past Saturday.

The Flyers' DaRon Holmes II leads the Atlantic 10 in scoring at 19.4 points per game. Holmes, though, is off a terrible performance against VCU. I expect the Flyers and Holmes to bounce back strong against Duquesne, which is a well below average shooting team. Dayton gives up the seventh-fewest points in the country at 64.3.

Prior to losing to VCU, the Flyers had gone 16-1 with one of those victories during this span coming against Duquesne, 72-62, on the road on Jan. 12.

Northwestern is laying too many points here against a hot Penn State team that has won and covered its last three games, beating Rutgers and Indiana on the road and Iowa at home. The Nittany Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.

Penn State averages more points per game than Northwestern and has revenge for a 76-72 home loss to the Wildcats from Jan. 10. The Nittany Lions led Northwestern by eight points at halftime during that first meeting. But they finished just 3-of-17 from 3-point range. The Wildcats rank 321st in 3-point defense. Penn State should shoot better from 3-point range against this opponent this time around while it's highly unlikely the Wildcats hit 61 percent of their shots from the floor like they did in the first meeting.

Northwestern could be without guard Ty Berry, who is the Wildcats' fourth-leading scorer and best free throw shooter. He suffered a knee injury in the Wildcats' last game, an 80-68 victory against Nebraska this past Wednesday.

Providence defeated Butler, 85-75, in overtime on Dec. 23. Much has changed since then. Butler is the better team.

The Bulldogs are 4-1 in their last five games with their only defeat in this time frame coming on the road to top-ranked Connecticut. Butler covered as a 14 1/2-point road 'dog in that game, losing, 71-62. The Bulldogs have covered in their last four games.

Providence lost Bryce Hopkins, its third-leading scorer, shortly after beating Butler. The Friars are 4-5 since losing Hopkins. They are off a 91-87 overtime victory against Creighton at home this past Wednesday. But that could cause a letdown in this spot.

Before the season, the SEC media picked Vanderbilt to finish 11th in the conference and South Carolina to place last. Vanderbilt has held true to that prediction with a 1-8 SEC mark.

But not South Carolina. The 15th-ranked Gamecocks are tied for first in the conference thanks to a six-game winning streak.

I don't see South Carolina having any trouble hosting Vanderbilt. The Gamecocks hold huge edges on the frontcourt and depth-wise. Vanderbilt is 1-8 in its last nine games with its last six defeats all occurring by 13 or more points.

Xavier is playing well and in revenge mode for an 85-78 road loss to Creighton on Jan. 23.

The Musketeers are 6-2 in their last eight games, including winning three in a row. Xavier is 7-1 in its last eight home games with its lone loss during this span coming to top-ranked Connecticut.

Creighton has to get over a tough, 91-87, overtime road loss to Providence this past Wednesday. The Bluejays are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, including 0-4 ATS during their past four games.

Dayton is 18th-ranked in the country, leads the Atlantic 10 Conference and has won 16 of its last 17 games. But this matchup against VCU holds special meaning for the Flyers.

It's their revenge game of the year. VCU defeated Dayton, 68-56, in the Atlantic 10 title game last season.

VCU is good again this season at 15-8, 7-3 in conference. But 19-3 Dayton is better. The Flyers are a better offensive team than they were when they lost to VCU last season. The Flyers average three points more per game than the Rams and rank fifth in the nation in 3-point accuracy. Dayton's DaRon Holmes II leads the A-10 in scoring at 19.7 points per game.

The oddsmaker agrees that Dayton is the superior team, opening the Flyers a road favorite. I'm going to back Dayton on the money line with the line as short as it is.

Forget Oregon State being just 3-8 in the Pac-12 Conference and 11-11 overall. The Beavers are much stronger when playing at home. They are 11-2 at Gill Coliseum. One of the victories was an 83-80 win against then ninth-ranked Arizona on Jan. 25. The Beavers were 18 1/2-point 'dogs in that game.
 
As home underdogs this season, the Beavers are 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS. Washington is mediocre on the road with a 3-3 SU and ATS mark. 

Oregon State gave Washington State a battle in Pullman, Wash., on Jan. 4 losing, 65-58. The Beavers were missing their third-leading scorer, Dexter Akanno, in that game. 

Furman is in better form than Mercer and has too much offense for the Bears to stay close.

The Paladins rank 33rd in the nation in scoring averaging 81.3 points a game. They have scored 82 or more points in five of their past eight games.

Mercer averages 11 points fewer per game than Furman. The Bears also are one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country making only 65.6 percent. They are 2-6 in their last eight games.

Saint Mary's probably could name its score. The Gaels did that when these two teams met on Jan. 25. The Gaels embarrassed Pacific, 76-28.

So why back Pacific in the rematch besides the Tigers being at home this time?

The timing. Not only can the Gaels be forgiven if they enter this matchup overconfident, but it's also a huge flat spot for them.

Saint Mary's is off a monster, 64-62, road upset victory against its major rival, Gonzaga, this past Saturday night. It's going to be extremely difficult for the Gaels to get motivated for this matchup.

The Gaels are 18-6 and lead the West Coast Conference with a 9-0 mark. However, they are just mediocre point spread-wise with an 11-11 ATS record.

It's asking a lot for Saint Mary's to cover this large number given the situation and that its offense averages just 72.5 points. The Gaels rank 254th in field goal percentage and 289th in free throw percentage.

I want Houston going for me at home after it was smashed, 78-65, by Kansas on the road this past Saturday. That was the Cougars' worst regular-season defeat in two years.

Even giving up 78 points in that game, the Cougars still rank first in the country in fewest points allowed per game at 54 and in defensive efficiency. Oklahoma State is the worst team in the Big 12 Conference. The Cowboys only average 71.1 points, which ranks 259th. They also rank 314th in free throw percentage.

The Cowboys are actually a little fat and happy, though, after upsetting Kansas State at home this past Saturday. That was just their second win in their past nine games.

Texas has a strong record as a big favorite covering 62 percent of the past 104 times when they've been chalk of more than 10 points.

Fresh off a 78-65 home victory against fourth-ranked Houston, Kansas is looking good. But now the Jayhawks find themselves in a difficult scheduling spot. They have to travel to Kansas State for this in-state, Big 12 Conference rivalry matchup.

Kansas State is at low ebb with four consecutive losses. The Wildcats, though, have played tough competition during this span - road games against Iowa State and Houston and home games vs Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Kansas State is capable of winning outright. The Wildcats bet LSU and Baylor while losing to Texas Tech on the road by one point.

The Wildcats are 10-2 at home. This is their biggest home game of the season - their Super Bowl.

"The atmosphere we'll play in on Monday will be very comparable to the atmosphere Houston played in today," Kansas coach Bill Self was quoted as saying on Saturday following the Jayhawks' upset win against the Cougars. "We'll have to go over there and play well ..."

I'm not convinced Gonzaga is better than Saint Mary's so I'm taking these many points. The Bulldogs have fewer wins than Saint Mary's and have battled inconsistency. Saint Mary's is in top form winning 14 of its last 15 games, including nine in a row.

Gonzaga is 0-4 against Quadrant 1 opponents. The Bulldogs are ranked 26th in the NCAA Net Rankings. The Gaels are ranked 21st in the NCAA Net Rankings.

The Gaels give up the third-fewest points in the country at 58.4. Their offense has picked up where they are averaging 78.8 points per game during their last six games.

This is Kentucky's game to win and I see the Wildcats doing just that. Getting any points with the Wildcats is just a bonus.

Kentucky defeated Tennessee in both meetings last season. Kentucky won those games by a combined 19 points. The Wildcats close their regular season at Tennessee. So it is paramount they beat the Volunteers in Lexington, Ky.

Both teams got caught peeking ahead to this marquee matchup in their last game. Kentucky blew a four-point home lead with 20 seconds and lost in overtime to Florida this past Wednesday. That was just the Wildcats' second home loss in 12 home contests. Tennessee looked far worse, though. The Volunteers lost, 63-59, to South Carolina as a 14-point home favorite this past Tuesday. Tennessee is going to have to play far, far better than that to stay competitive against the Wildcats.

The Wildcats own the deeper bench and have a highly-underrated shooting guard in Antonio Reeves. Not only is he an elite defensive player, but he's scored 19 or more points in eight of the last 10 games.

This is a power ratings play. These teams have similar records, but I have Weber State as the superior team. So I will back the underdog. 

Weber State ranks 65th in the nation defensively holding foes to 65.2 points per game. That's remarkable for a Big Sky Conference team. 

Northern Colorado has had some high-scoring games in its last few games, but the Bears have played weak competition during this span. They rank 326th defensively allowing 78.2 points per game. 

Maybe it's a sucker's play. But I'm not going to turn down Kansas as a home underdog to Houston. The last time the Jayhawks were an underdog in Allen Fieldhouse was 2021 when they rolled past future national champion Baylor, 71-58.

Kansas is 11-0 at home this season. This includes a win and cover against third-ranked Connecticut.

Houston has the top defense in the country, but is 2-2 in its Big 12 road games, 1-3 ATS. One of those conference victories came in overtime against Texas this past Monday. The Cougars are 3-6 ATS in road/neutral site games.

Texas is a terrible free throw shooting team and scores five fewer points per game than Kansas.

East Tennessee State has only been favored once in its last eight games. That was against VMI. The Buccaneers were 10 1/2-point chalk and ended up winning by one point.

The Buccaneers are a mediocre team with a 3-6 record in the Southern Conference. They are one of the worst perimeter shooting teams in the country.

I liked what The Citadel did in its last game. The Bulldogs nearly upset Furman, losing by three points in overtime as a 7-point 'dog.

Siena is 3-17 and tied for last in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference with a 2-7 mark. However, one of the Saints' victories came against Rider.

Rider is having a disappointing season, but still is a much superior team to Siena. The Broncos have had this matchup circled since that, 67-65, early December road loss.

The Broncos are playing better. They are off consecutive road upset victories against St. Peter's and Mount St. Mary's. They held those two opponents to an average of 59.5 points.

Siena has dropped four in a row. The Saints have injuries and trouble scoring, averaging only 50.3 points in their last three games.

Manhattan is one of the worst teams in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference. The Jaspers don't have much of a home-court edge and are weak both offensively and defensively where they have permitted at least 81 points in three of their last four games.

Quinnipiac is the best team in the MAAC with an 8-1 league mark and 16-4 overall record. The Bobcats average more than 78 points a game and are the ninth-best free throw shooting team in the nation. Manhattan averaged 12 fewer points per game than the Bobcats.

Quinnipiac had no problem handling Manhattan at home on Jan. 7 winning, 76-59.  

So I find this number short.

I'm going to buy low on Georgia State. The Panthers have lost four in a row to drop below .500 on the season. Those four defeats, though, all came on the road. Georgia State is 6-1 at home, including winning its last six home games. 

The Panthers should really be motivated for this matchup against the top team in the Sun Belt. The Panthers also are off a frustrating overtime loss to Coastal Carolina in their last game. 

The Mountaineers rank 26th in the country defensively. Georgia State, however, averages 78.9 points a game and is a very good free throw shooting team.

Albany is a high-scoring, up-tempo team with a weak defense. Vermont is just the opposite. The Catamounts rank 23rd in the nation defensively. They've held their last four foes to an average of 58.5 points.

Based on history, situation and statistical breakdowns, I strongly look for Vermont to control tempo, slow down Albany and have this total go Under.

Only once during the past seven meetings between these America East Conference rivals has Albany reached 68 points. The Great Danes have been held to an average of fewer than 64 points during this span.

I don't look for that to change. Albany is playing its third straight road game. Vermont has the best defense in the conference. The Catamounts also play at one of the slowest paces in the country ranking 346th. They rarely foul or turn the ball over. They should control the tempo being home and with Albany once again on the road.

Vermont is the best team right now in the league. The Catamounts aren't a top-50 caliber team, but they do rank 103rd in net rankings. Albany is averaging 64.6 points in its three games against top-104 teams Seton Hall, UMass and Drexel.

Furman is a high-scoring team, but this is too many points for the Paladins to lay on the road.

The Paladins are 1-7 in their true road games this season and 2-7-1 ATS in road/neutral site games.

The Citadel gives up seven fewer points per game than Furman and is more accurate from the field and 3-point range than the Paladins.

It's gut check time for Colorado State after consecutive road losses to Wyoming and Nevada. The Rams are in the NCAA Tournament hunt with a 15-5 record, but blew an 11-point lead with 1:11 left to fall to Wyoming in overtime this past Saturday in their last game. 

The Rams are home now where they are 10-1, including 3-0 in Mountain West Conference games and with a victory against 19th-ranked New Mexico. San Diego State has been idle for a week. The Aztecs are 0-5-1 ATS in true road games and have been known to struggle when playing in high altitude venues, which Moby Arena is. 

The Aztecs are 16-4, but have feasted on weak competition going 14-0 vs Quad 2 or lower opponents and 2-4 against Quad 1 foes. 
Colorado State is the seventh-best shooting team in the country. San Diego State is the second-worst shooting team in the Mountain West ahead of only Boise State. The Aztecs are the worst 3-point shooting team in the conference. 

San Diego State could be rusty, too, having been idle for a week. The Aztecs have a bigger game up next when they host 17th-ranked and Mountain West leader Utah State.

Villanova needs this game much more than Marquette. The Wildcats are in serious stop-the-pain mode having lost four in a row.

Marquette already has lost Big East Conference road games to Providence and Seton Hall. The Golden Eagles may be without their third-leading scorer, Kam Jones. He's questionable because of a sprained ankle.

The Wildcats are the No. 1 free throw shooting team in the nation.

It's easy to cite revenge for Washington State when going with the Cougars to beat Colorado at home in this matchup. The Buffaloes beat the Cougars, 74-67, in Boulder on Dec. 31.

But it's more than that. Washington State has come together a lot more since that defeat going 5-2 in their last seven games. The Cougars are strong at home and Colorado is coming off a road win against Washington this past Wednesday. I don't see the Buffaloes knocking off both Washington and Washington State on the road. Prior to defeating Washington, Colorado had played four true road games. The Buffaloes lost and failed to cover in each of those contests.

Washington State is 9-2 at home. The Cougars won and covered against Utah and Arizona during their last two home games.

The Cougars are a better defensive team than Colorado and can take advantage of the Buffaloes' weak 3-point defense.

Kent State is far superior to Ohio in two key categories - 3-point shooting and free throw shooting. The Golden Flashes also are home for this Mid-American Conference matchup. That's a key, too. Ohio is 0-5 SU and ATS in its five true road games.

The Bobcats lost on the road this past Tuesday to Akron, 67-58, as an 8-point 'dog. The Bobcats remain a fade on the road until they prove they can cover a true away game.

Kent State has the better overall record, although both teams are 3-4 in the MAC. The Golden Flashes rank 54th in 3-point accuracy. Ohio is 199th in 3-point defense. Kent State also makes 76 percent of its free throws compared to Ohio, which ranks 221st in free throw percentage at 70.4 percent.

Mount St. Mary's beat Quinnipiac straight-up last season on the road as a bigger underdog than this. Quinnipiac is riding high on a five-game win streak after a home win against Iona.

But the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference is a competitive conference so I'm going to sell high on the Bobcats and take this many points with underdog Mount St. Mary's. The Mountaineers are respectable on defense and a good shooting team.

SMU plays outstanding defense. But North Texas plays even better defense. The Mean Green rank third in the nation defensively holding foes to 58.3 points a game.

North Texas also is 8-0 at home, covering all but one of its lined home games.

I see the Mean Green really being up for this matchup after their six-game win streak was snapped by Charlotte on the road this past Saturday.

North Texas had held its last four opponents below 60 points. I don't feel the Mean Green should be a home 'dog to SMU.

It's not a fluke the Under has cashed in seven of Richmond's last eight games. The Spiders have a top-30 defense and are one of the slowest-tempo teams in the country.

The Spiders are giving up only 57.8 points in regulation during their last eight games. They should be able to control pace being at home against George Washington, which has played slower since entering Atlantic 10 Conference play.

George Washington ranks 32nd in the country in defensive field goal percentage. The Revolutionaries' strength on offense is 3-point accuracy, where they rank 17th. Richmond, though, is rated in the top 30 both in defensive field goal percentage and 3-point defense. The Spiders are the top defensive team in the Atlantic 10 and playing at home. So look for defense to carry the day.

Houston is finding out the hard way that winning on the road in the Big 12 Conference is tough. The Cougars are ranked fourth in the country, but they are 0-2 SU and ATS on the road in the Big 12 losing to Iowa State and TCU.

BYU has one of the best home-courts in the country. The Cougars slaughtered Iowa State, 87-72, at home a week ago. BYU lost at Texas Tech in its previous game this past Saturday after blowing a 16-point halftime lead. But at home, BYU is 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS, outscoring foes by an average of nearly 30 points a game.

The Cougars are the 11th-highest scoring team in the nation averaging 85.3 points. That's 11 points more per game than Houston averages. The Cougars also could be without J'Wan Roberts, a key defender and their leading rebounder.

Portland is too weak defensively to lay this many points. San Diego is 0-5 in the West Coast Conference. But the Toreros are 10-10 overall. Their conference losses have been against the best teams in the league, Gonzaga twice, St. Mary's and San Francisco.

The Pilots played a very weak non-conference schedule and have one of the worst defenses in the country. They are giving up an average of 80.2 points on the season and 97.3 points during their last three games.

When I get involved in a Big Sky Conference game, it's usually going Over the total. But I'm making an exception in this Big Sky matchup. I believe the oddsmaker has set too high of a total.

Weber State has the 18th best defense in the country. A big factor why the Wildcats are giving up just 63.8 points per game is they play at the 347th slowest tempo in the nation. 

Montana is giving up fewer than 70 points per game when at home. Weber State averages fewer than 70 points on the road.

Both teams are strong rebounding on the defensive side. So there should be few second-chance opportunities.

Oregon wasn't expected to win as a six-point road 'dog to Colorado this past Thursday. But the Ducks' 86-70 loss to the Buffaloes shows some red flags concerning the team when playing away from Eugene. 

The Ducks are 4-4 in road/neutral site games. They looked dreadful against Colorado getting outrebounded by 12 and committing 13 turnovers. Now the Ducks have to go on to Utah where the Utes are 10-0 at home this season. 

Among the teams Utah has defeated at home are BYU, Washington State, Washington and UCLA, 90-44, 10 days ago. UCLA played at Oregon on Dec. 30 and lost by five points, 64-59. 

Utah buried Oregon State, 74-47, as a 15-point home favorite this past Thursday. The Utes did that without starting point guard Rollie Worster, who is questionable for this matchup with a leg injury. The Utes have another reliable point guard in Deivon Smith, whose statistics are similar to Worster's. So it's just a bonus if Worster is able to play. 

Iowa is much improved since an 87-68 road loss to Purdue back on Dec. 4. The Hawkeyes are 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. They have won and covered three in a row beating Rutgers, Nebraska and Minnesota by an average of 12 points.

This is only Purdue's third true road game. The Boilermakers lost to Nebraska on the road, 88-72, three games ago. Iowa defeated Nebraska, 94-76, at home eight days ago.

Purdue is playing consecutive true road games for the first time this season. The Boilermakers are the 13th-highest scoring team in the nation. Iowa ranks fifth in scoring averaging two more points per game than Purdue at 87.1.

Maybe I'm a sucker, but I can't turn down taking points with the better team. That's what I find in this Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference matchup between Marist and Mount St. Mary's.

Marist is 8-6. The Red Foxes have a strong 10-4 ATS record. Mount St. Mary's is 6-10 and has a losing ATS mark.

The Red Foxes are a strong defensive team, holding foes to 62.6 points a game. That ranks 10th-best in the country. Mount St. Mary's is below average in scoring, rebounding, 3-point shooting and free throw percentage. The Mountaineers also surrender nearly 10 more points per game than Marist.

The Mountaineers are 2-4 in their last six games, including losing and failing to cover in their last two. The Red Foxes halted a four-game losing skid with a confidence-building, 83-60, victory against Rider.

If you discount an 82-61 loss to Fairfield, Marist is giving up an average of only 58.3 points in its last nine games. I don't see Mount St. Mary's scoring too many points. So receiving multiple points looms large.

Troy enters this matchup riding a lot of momentum and has significant edges on South Alabama in several key areas.

The Trojans are on a six-game winning and covering streak. They lead the Sun Belt Conference with a 5-0 mark. South Alabama is 2-3 in the Sun Belt. 

Troy averages 81.4 points a game. That's nearly seven points more per game than South Alabama. The Trojans also are the superior rebounding team and 3-point shooting team. Troy ranks 119th in 3-point accuracy. The Jaguars, by contrast, rank 298th in 3-point accuracy. Troy ranks 52nd in the nation in rebounding while the Jaguars are 252nd. 

Not only is Troy superior to South Alabama on paper, but also in the respected kenpom.com ratings where the Trojans are ranked 141st compared to the Jaguars being 205th. 

So I don't find it too much to ask of the Trojans to just win this game. 

Morehead State gives up the 11th-fewest points per game in the country at 62.6. The Eagles rank sixth in the nation in defensive field goal percentage and 11th in 3-point defense. They are the top defensive team in the Ohio Valley Conference.

Tennessee-Martin is far better offensively than on defense. But the last four Skyhawks' games have gone Under. They do rank 91st in defensive field goal percentage.

The key is tempo - and it will be slow thanks to Morehead State. The Eagles will not get into a fast-paced game with the Skyhawks, especially at home.

The bar is set low for Holy Cross in this Patriot League matchup. Holy Cross is 4-13. Lafayette is 5-12, but leads the Patriot League with a 4-0 mark. The Crusaders are 1-3 in league making this a crucial home game for them.

Lafayette is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. The Leopards average only 60.2 points per game on 39.3 percent shooting from the floor and 27.7 percent from 3-point range. Holy Cross averages five more points per game than Lafayette.

The Crusaders have the best player on the court in Joe Octave. He averages 15 points and 6.6 rebounds. The Crusaders snapped a three-game losing streak with a 69-66 overtime road win against Lehigh as a 10-point 'dog. So the Crusaders should bring in confidence for this key league game.

The Leopards are 2-8 in their 10 road/neutral site games.

I make Holy Cross the favorite in this matchup. So getting these many points is a bonus.

Rhode Island had a rough December. But sparked by David Green, the Rams are playing their best ball winning and covering their last four games.

Green has scored 15 or more points in three of the four games he's played. He had 24 points in the Rams' last game, an 89-77 upset victory against UMass.

The Rams are 3-0 in the Atlantic 10 winning all three games as underdogs. St. Bonaventure has failed to cover the last three times it has been favored.

I find Rhode Island to be undervalued again in this matchup.

Wisconsin remains the lone unbeaten team in Big Ten play. But no team goes unbeaten through the conference schedule in this rugged league. So the Badgers are on borrowed time. That time could be up in this matchup.

Penn State is 4-2 ATS in its Big Ten games. The Nittany Lions upset Michigan at a neutral site three games ago. Since then, however, the Nittany Lions have lost to second-ranked Purdue and Northwestern. So this becomes a circle-the-wagons home game for Penn State, which upset Ohio State at home and nearly upset Maryland on the road losing in overtime.

This is just the Badgers' fifth true road game. They are 2-2 in those away contests with their defeats coming to Providence by 13 and to Arizona by 25.

The teams played two close games last season with Wisconsin edging Penn State, 63-60 and 79-74.

Dartmouth is below the radar and justifiably so with three straight losses and non-covers. But the Big Green has had injuries. Now they finally are healthy.

Princeton is the best team in the Ivy League. Still, this is a lot of points for the Tigers to be laying in a slow-paced Ivy League matchup. Dartmouth is respectable on defense holding foes to an average of 68.7 points a game.

There could be a rust factor, too, since neither team has played in nine days. That adds some randomness and randomness is good when backing a large underdog.

The Tigers have been overpriced. They are 2-4 ATS in their last six lined games. I find them overpriced again in this spot given the circumstances.

UCLA covered against Marquette and Gonzaga in narrow losses to those schools earlier this season. Few, though, are rushing to the window to bet the Bruins these days. UCLA is 1-8 in its last nine games and off an embarrassing, 90-44, road loss to Utah this past Thursday.

But now the Bruins are returning home and I'm buying low on them as home underdogs to mediocre Washington, which ranks 277th defensively.

Clearly this is a circle-the-wagons game for UCLA. The Bruins have owned the Huskies winning the past nine times.

UCLA is way overdue. The Bruins are going to have tremendous motivation. This is the spot to back them.

San Diego State isn't the same on the road. The Aztecs are 2-6 ATS in away and neutral site games this season. 

New Mexico has one of the top home floor edges. That's held true again this season as the Lobos are 8-0 SU at home. They've covered six of their seven lined home games.

The Lobos should be up for this matchup after losing, 83-73, on the road to Las Vegas this past Tuesday.

Dayton has won nine in a row. The Flyers shouldn't be an underdog to Duquesne.

The Flyers are road-tested playing Houston and LSU on neutral courts and winning at SMU, Cincinnati and Davidson.

Duquesne's 6-1 home record is misleading. The Dukes have played extremely easy competition at home. The best team they hosted was Princeton and they lost straight-up to the Tigers as a six-point favorite.

Dayton ranks fourth in the country in 3-point shooting hitting 40.5 percent. Duquesne's biggest defensive weakness is 3-point defense.

I'm selling high on the Gophers right now. 

Picked to finish last in the Big Ten Conference by the media, Minnesota is a surprising 12-3 and tied for second in the Big Ten with a 3-1 league mark. The Gophers are off narrow victories against Michigan and Maryland. They've won seven in a row.

But I see reality closing in on Minnesota. The Gophers' next four games are this one at Indiana, then Iowa followed by a road game at Michigan State and then Wisconsin. 

Minnesota only has played two true road games. Indiana is 8-1 at home this season.

The Hooisers should be highly motivated for this matchup after losing, 66-57, on the road to Rutgers this past Tuesday. Indiana was an embarrassing 4-of-15 from the foul line in that loss. 

The 11-5 Hooisers are not a good free throw shooting team, but they do connect on 48.4 percent of their field goal attempts. That rates 35th in the country.

I find this line short. Towson is 6-0 at home. Stony Brook hosted Towson last year and lost, 67-55. Towson is superior to the Seawolves again this season.

Towson has huge edges defensively and on the boards. The Tigers rank 34th defensively. They have given up an average of only 54 points in their last four games. They rank fifth in the nation in defensive rebounding. The Tigers had 11 more rebounds than Stony Brook in last year's game.

Stony Brook ranks 306th in defensive rebounding and is 340th in the nation in 3-point defense.

Getting even a basket with Iowa State is huge in this matchup of defensive giants.

The Cyclones had their six-game win streak halted on the road by 11th-ranked Oklahoma State this past Saturday. I like the Cyclones to get back on the winning track at home. Iowa State ranks fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.

Houston is unbeaten. But five of the Cougars' last six games have been against extremely easy foes.

I'm looking for a strong bounce back effort from Davidson at home after the Wildcats lost its Atlantic-10 opener six days ago to Dayton, 72-59. That was the Wildcats' first home defeat in seven games and also halted a seven-game win streak. Davidson had a bad shooting night, while Dayton was hot making 50 percent of its shots from the floor.

Davidson matches up much better against Rhode Island.  

The Wildcats are the stronger defensive team, has a much better turnover ratio than the Rams and has a deeper bench. The Rams give up six more points per game than Davidson and rank 283rd in 3-point defense. The Rams also rate 284th in turnovers.

BYU is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS, ranks fourth in the nation in scoring, 12th in the country defensively and has a winning margin of 28.9 points, which leads all Division I teams.

And the Cougars haven't even been 100 percent - until now. Expected to play is defensive ace Fousseyni Traore, who is the Cougars' sixth-leading scorer. He had missed December because of a hamstring injury.

The 12th-ranked Cougars are ready to make their Big 12 debut against Cincinnati, another newcomer to the esteemed Big 12 Conference.

BYU is a legitimate 12-1. All of its victories have been by at least nine points. The Cougars average 90.4 points and hold their foes to an average of 61.5 points.

Cincinnati is 11-2, but that record is bogus given the soft schedule the Bearcats have played. This is just the Bearcats' third true road game of the season.

Cincinnati failed to cover as 12 1/2-point road favorites against Howard needing overtime to win, 86-81. The Bearcats lost on the road to Xavier, 84-79, as one-point underdogs. Cincinnati also has played one neutral site game. That was against Dayton. The Bearcats were 5 1/2-point favorites and lost, 82-68.

Given their road woes and soft schedule, I don't see the Bearcats staying within double-digits of the powerful Cougars.

Butler has never beaten Connecticut in seven tries. Butler has never kept the final score below double-digits either in any of its losses to Connecticut. Maybe the Bulldogs can keep this game in single digits, but I don't see them pulling the upset.

There are reasons why Butler has never defeated the Huskies. The Bulldogs can't match that talent level, size and athletic ability.

Connecticut is fourth-ranked in the country. The Huskies are playing well going 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in their past six games.

Butler is not in good form having lost its past two games. Those losses were to St. John's by 16 points and to Providence in overtime. The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five board games.

Texas Arlington is underpriced here. The Mavericks have played a tougher schedule than Tarleton State. They are 5-1 ATS in their last six lined games. This includes the Mavericks covering against Texas, Texas Tech and Grand Canyon, who they led in the second half against. 

Tarleton State has been favored twice in the last four weeks and failed to cover each time. The Texans nearly lost to Texas Rio Grande Valley as a 10 1/2-point home favorite.

Top-ranked Purdue has one loss this season. That defeat occurred to Northwestern on the road. It happened to be the Boilermakers' lone true road game this season.

Now Purdue travels to Maryland to face the Terps, who have a powerful home court edge. Maryland has won 19 consecutive home contests, the fourth-longest streak in Division I.

The Boilermakers didn't fare well at Maryland last season losing, 68-54.

The Terrapins have the interior defense to control Zach Edey.

Portland State is a road favorite because the Vikings are the superior team and have played the tougher schedule. The Vikings also hold a rebounding edge on Idaho ranking 126th in rebounds per game compared to the Vandals, who rank 283rd in that category. 

The Vikings won't lack motivation either after losing in embarrassing fashion to Eastern Washington, 91-57, as 3-point road 'dogs this past Thursday. 
The Vandals are a bit fat and happy after they halted a two-game losing streak with a 61-58 home win against Sacramento State as 3-point favorites. Idaho is averaging only 56.6 points in its last three games vs board teams. 

Arizona has earned its No. 4 seed playing an extremely tough schedule. But the Wildcats are laying too many points on the road here in this Pac-12 opener.

The Golden Bears are going to slow down the pace under first-year coach Mark Madsen. This is a plus in getting this many points. So is the Golden Bears getting Devin Askew back from injury. He averaged 15.5 points last season. Cal has three other good players in Jaylon Tyson, Fardaws Aimaq and Jalen Cone. Those three are averaging a combined 52 points a game.

I find this a short number to lay backing Texas-San Antonio at home against Prairie View A&M, which is 1-4 in its last five games and has failed to cover in its past four lined games.

UTSA nearly upset Oregon State as a 10 1/2-point road 'dog two games ago. The Roadrunners suffered a one-point, last-second defeat. Now they're home and dropping well down in class.

Prairie View A&M is one of the worst shooting teams in the country with a field goal percentage of 39.5 percent. The Panthers are bad defensively, too, giving up 76.9 points per game.

UTSA averages nearly 77 points a game and has Christian Tucker, who leads the American Athletic Conference in assists and averages 13 points.

This is bad on bad considering Siena is 2-9 and Brown is 3-9. Usually I prefer the underdog in matchups like this. But there's a reason why Brown is a double-digit favorite and it's not just because the Bears are home.

Siena is terrible. The Saints also happen to be 2-9 ATS. They are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games losing by an average of 25.5 points in their past four games. Siena just lost, 95-74, to Cornell as a 12 1/2-point home 'dog. This is significant. Because we have a similar point spread here with the Saints being on the road against Brown, another Ivy League school.

Brown was right behind Cornell as the fourth-best team in the Ivy League preseason poll. The Bears may have the best player in the Ivy League, Kino Lilly. The guard averages nearly 19 points. He's supported by an experienced and deep frontcourt.

I have Brown winning this game by 16-to-18 points.

UNLV is in action for the first time since upsetting No. 8 ranked Creighton this past Wednesday. It was the Rebels' highest-ranked win since 2020. I'm looking for a Rebel letdown against this elite defensive foe in this neutral site tournament matchup in Phoenix.

Saint Mary's had a tough November, but has looked much better this month. The Gaels give up the eighth-fewest points in the country. They just defeated 13th-ranked Colorado State, 64-61, as 3 1/2-point road 'dogs. The Rams averaged 83.3 points. So the Gaels held them to 22 points below their season average. 

Saint Mary's has held four of its last five foes to 63 or fewer points. The Rebels can't come close to matching that quality of defense. 
UNLV is ranked 101st in the KenPom rankings. Saint Mary's is rated 62nd. 

The gap is large enough and the situation ripe enough to lay this number with the Gaels.

These in-state rivals just played 13 days ago in The Pit at New Mexico. It was no contest. New Mexico buried the Aggies, 106-62. The Lobos made 14 of 25 shots from 3-point range for 56 percent. New Mexico State missed 15 of its 18 3-point shots for 17 percent.

I don't expect that kind of shooting discrepancy, nor do I believe the Lobos will blow out the Aggies again especially with this rematch being in Las Cruces.

That blowout in the first game was unusual for this Rio Grande Rivalry. New Mexico State is 6-4 during the past 10 games against New Mexico. The Aggies hadn't lost by double-digits during this span until that defeat.

So I'm to ride with the Aggies in this rapid revenge spot.

Florida Atlantic is going through a high profile stretch of games. The 15th-ranked Owls just competed in the Jimmy V Classic at Madison Square Garden last week. They meet St. Bonaventure Saturday in the Basketball Hall of Fame Classic in Springfield, Mass. and will take on top-ranked Arizona in the Las Vegas Desert Classic on Dec. 23.

But before those marquee matchups, the Owls have this game against Florida International. I don't see the Owls getting too motivated for the 3-7 Panthers.

I have this game power-rated much lower than this inflated point spread. Florida International is playing better, winning two of its last three games. The Panthers took the Owls to overtime when they previously met last Jan. 11.

The Panthers force the second-most turnovers in the nation and are second in steals led by guard Arturo Dean, who leads the country in steals per game at 4.5.

It's a short college basketball board today, but I'm getting involved in a game involving small conference West Coast teams. I like Cal State Northridge to win at home against Utah Tech.

My handicap is based on three main things: Cal State Northridge averages 75 points at home, is the much better free throw shooting team and stronger on the boards.

Utah Tech averages fewer than 70 points a game and shoots just 68 percent from the foul line. The Trailblazers just lost, 63-62, as 7 1/2-point favorites at home two days ago. That can't do much for their confidence.

Boston University has played six road games. The Terriers are 1-5 SU and ATS in those contests with their average away loss being by 16.8 points.

Wagner is 2-0 at home. The Seahawks have a top-40 defense, have played a tougher schedule and are in good current form winning three of their last four, including the past two.

So I find Wagner worth backing in this spot in this price range.

I don't see Tennessee losing at home to Illinois. The Volunteers are extremely battle tested having already played a number of strong teams, including Kansas, North Carolina, Syracuse and Big Ten opponents Wisconsin and Purdue.

Illinois lost by seven points at home to Marquette. Wisconsin beat Marquette by nine points just two games ago. Tennessee defeated Wisconsin by 10 points on the road.

A key for Tennessee is getting inside production from big men Jonas Aidoo and Tobe Awaka, which they've started to get.

An early start matchup at a neutral site doesn't bode well for as high as scoring game as the oddsmaker projects here. Tulane has shot better than 50 percent from the field in six of its seven games this season. However, the Green Wave have faced an easy schedule. Mississippi State is the toughest defense they have encountered so far.


Mississippi State has played four straight Unders. The Bulldogs play slow and are on a cold streak. They haven't reached 60 points in either of their last two games.

Saint Mary's was a ranked team opening the season. But a 3-5 start has removed the Gaels from Top-25 status. The Gaels are in position to take their frustrations out hosting Cleveland State.

The Vikings are 0-3 on the road. Their previous away game was against fellow Horizon League team, Youngstown State this past Wednesday. The Vikings were 2 1/2-point 'dogs. They lost, 94-69. They have played much worse on the road averaging fewer than 70 points while giving up an average of 80.7 points. Earlier this season, the Vikings were seven-point road favorites against Eastern Michigan - and lost straight-up by seven points, 69-62.

Saint Mary's still is an elite defensive team ranking 14th in fewest points allowed per game at 61 points. I don't see Cleveland State having much success being on the West Coast facing this upper tier defense.

I believe in the due factor. It's going to show up here. Villanova has lost its last two games as double-digit favorites against fellow Philadelphia teams, St. Joe's and Drexel. The Wildcats had won and covered their previous four games.

Now the Wildcats take on Kansas State in Manhattan, Kan. in a Big 12/Big East battle. Kansas State is 6-2. The Wildcats aren't as good as their record, though. They could be 3-5 if they would have gone 0-3 in their overtime games instead of 3-0. Two of Kansas State's overtime victories came at home against Oral Roberts and North Alabama. The Wildcats were 13 1/2-point favorites and 19 1/2-point favorites in those contests. Those are the Wildcats' last two games.

The Wildcats made it to the final 8 in the NCAA Tournament last season. But no longer have the two best players from that team, Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell. Their top returner is Nae'Qwan Tomlin and he's out due to suspension.