Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-07-24 | Hawks v. Celtics -12 | 117-125 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. First off, it's worth noting that the straight-up winner has covered the spread in 17 straight meetings between these two teams. I look for that trend to continue on Wednesday. Atlanta had an off day on Tuesday but you have to wonder how much it has in the tank as it heads on the road for this two-game trip. Note that the Hawks have been involved in six straight wild, high-scoring affairs with five of those contests decided by nine points or less and three settled by five or less. The Celtics on the other hand are coming off what amounted to little more than a glorified scrimmage against the undermanned Grizzlies at home on Sunday. In fact, Boston will be playing just its third game in the last eight nights, all at home. The Celtics have turned things around defensively over their last two contests, holding the Lakers and Grizzlies to 38 and 35 made field goals, respectively. It's a much different story for the Hawks as they've allowed six of their last seven opponents to knock down at least 46 field goals in regulation time despite four of those six foes hoisting up fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Atlanta checks in 27-45 ATS in its last 72 games as a road underdog and 17-28 ATS in its last 45 contests following a home loss. Boston is 52-36 ATS in its last 88 contests following a home win and 12-10 ATS in its last 22 games after a home win by 20 points or more, including a 3-1 ATS mark this season. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
02-07-24 | Warriors v. 76ers +2.5 | Top | 127-104 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Golden State at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers have lost two games in a row and six of their last seven overall as they struggled to adapt to life without Joel Embiid. I don't think Philadelphia is as bad as it has looked lately, however, and do think it will get things straightened out sooner rather than later. Note that the 76ers opponents have been shooting the lights out during their current slide. The good news is, the Sixers have continued to limit the opposition's scoring opportunities, allowing 87 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last six games. On the flip side, it's only a matter of time before the Sixers start cashing in on their own opportunities, noting that they've hoisted up 94, 96 and 93 field goal attempts in their last three contests. The Warriors have gotten a little too loose for my liking defensively, allowing nine of their last 14 opponents to get off at least 89 field goal attempts. While it looks like Golden State has been lighting it up offensively during its current 3-1 run, it has actually been fairly muted, connecting on 44, 46, 46 and 43 field goals in regulation time over that stretch (still impressive numbers but not overwhelmingly so). For Golden State this will be its fifth game in five different cities in the last nine nights. Philadelphia on the other hand has the advantage of staying home for a third straight contest. Note that the Warriors are just 12-26 ATS in their last 38 games as a road favorite of six points or less and 10-13 ATS in their last 23 contests following a double-digit road win. Meanwhile, the 76ers are 29-14 ATS in their last 43 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Philadelphia is also 21-17 ATS in its last 38 contests following a double-digit loss. Finally, we'll note that the favorite has covered the spread in three straight meetings in this series. It hasn't done so in four consecutive matchups between these two teams since 2010-12. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
02-06-24 | Mavs v. Nets +2.5 | 119-107 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Dallas at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. These two teams had very different results last night as Dallas defeated Philadelphia in blowout fashion while Brooklyn dropped a double-digit decision against Golden State. I look for the Nets to bounce back on Tuesday as they look to avenge an earlier five-point loss against the Mavs in Dallas. Note that Dallas has now won four straight meetings in this series. It hasn't delivered five consecutive wins over Brooklyn since 2009-2011. The Nets have given up way too many scoring opportunities over the last couple of games, yielding 96 and 93 field goal attempts against the 76ers and Warriors, respectively. They get a bit of a reprieve here as the Mavs haven't been pushing the pace, getting off 69, 76, 81 and 87 field goal attempts over their last four games. On the flip side, Dallas has allowed six of its last seven opponents to knock down at least 43 field goals. Brooklyn has held 10 of its last 12 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Dallas is just 15-17 ATS in its last 32 games played on the second of back-to-back nights and 21-29 ATS in its last 50 contests following a road victory. Meanwhile, Brooklyn is 28-23 ATS in its last 51 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent and 8-5 ATS when coming off a home loss this season. Take Brooklyn (8*). | |||||||
02-06-24 | DePaul v. St. John's -21.5 | Top | 57-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on St. John's minus the points over DePaul at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Blue Demons are mired in a miserable season and they're in the wrong place at the wrong time on Tuesday as they take on St. John's at UBS Arena. The Red Storm are coming off consecutive losses but those came on the road against Xavier and at home against Connecticut. They draw a smash spot here as the Blue Demons are as bad as they've been in quite some time and enter on the heels of 10 straight losses. DePaul has managed to knock down just 30 field goals over its last two games combined. The Blue Demons check in 289th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency this season according to KenPom. They haven't been much better defensively, allowing seven of their last eight opponents to make good on at least 30 field goals. St. John's figures to punish the DePaul defense here, noting the Red Storm rank 44th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency and 94th in adjusted tempo. Keep in mind, St. John's has knocked down 32, 33, 37, 37 and 33 field goals in the last five meetings in this series and those came against much tougher Blue Demon squads. DePaul is just 9-14 ATS in its last 23 games as a double-digit underdog and 4-6 in its last 10 contests following a loss by 20 or more points in-conference. Meanwhile, St. John's is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games after losing consecutive games in-conference and a long-term 24-18 ATS when those two losses came by double-digit margins, as is the case here. Take St. John's (10*). | |||||||
02-04-24 | Grizzlies v. Celtics -16.5 | 91-131 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Memphis at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. This is a steep line even by today's NBA standards but I think it will prove too short. Memphis is missing a number of key contributors right now and checks in having lost four straight games, going 2-2 ATS over that stretch. Note that the one thing the Grizzlies have been able to hang their hat on at times this season has been their defense but even that has sagged lately. Memphis has allowed its last four opponents to knock down 44, 43, 41 and 46 field goals. That's despite three of those four opponents getting off 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Boston figures to push it much more on Sunday, noting that the Celtics have hoisted up 93 field goal attempts per game on average at home this season. Boston is inexplicably mired in a four-game ATS losing streak. The Celtics do have the rest advantage here having not played since Thursday's no-show against the Lebron and A.D.-less Lakers. On a positive note, Boston has connected on more than 40 field goals in six of its last seven games. The problem defensively has been the fact that the Celtics have been far too loose, allowing more than 90 field goal attempts in seven straight games. The Grizzlies don't figure to push the pace here, however, noting that Memphis has gotten off 90 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of its last 11 games. The Grizzlies are just 25-37 ATS in their last 62 games as a road underdog and 17-20 ATS in their last 37 games following a home loss. Meanwhile, the Celtics are 38-23 ATS in their last 61 games after scoring 105 points or less in their previous game and 19-13 ATS in their last 32 contests following an upset loss at home. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
02-03-24 | Oregon v. UCLA +1.5 | 63-71 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Oregon at 10 pm et on Saturday. Oregon picked up a much-needed victory on the road against USC on Thursday but remains just 2-3 over its last five games entering Saturday's showdown with UCLA. The Ducks got off a whopping 65 field goal attempts in that victory, taking advantage of a Charmin' soft USC defense. The Ducks obviously prefer to push the pace when they can but run into a tough matchup here as the Bruins rank 34th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 343rd in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom) and come in playing their best basketball of the season. UCLA has held five straight opponents to 54 or fewer field goal attempts. They've limited 10 of their last 11 opponents to 24 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, we have seen some signs of life from the UCLA offense as it has knocked down 25, 22, 25, 20 and 25 field goals over its last five contests, matching its longest streak of 20+ made field goals this season. I realize those numbers aren't eye-popping but when you play at the slow pace UCLA does, they're notable. Oregon checks in having allowed seven of its last eight opponents to connect on 27 or more field goals. Note that despite Thursday's win and cover, Oregon is still just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games as a road favorite. The Ducks are also 12-19 ATS in their last 31 contests following a victory in-conference. UCLA is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games as a home favorite of three points or less and 13-7 ATS in its last 20 contests off a win but non-cover, as is the case here. Take UCLA (8*). | |||||||
02-03-24 | Kings v. Bulls -1.5 | 123-115 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Sacramento at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Kings drilled the Pacers in Indiana last night as they were in a smash spot, rested and revenge-minded facing a Pacers team that had just suffered an emotional loss in New York the night previous. This is a much different situation as the Kings play the second of back-to-backs against a rested Bulls squad that last played on Wednesday, when they delivered a 117-110 win in Charlotte. Chicago has been playing reasonably well, going 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS over its last seven contests. The Bulls have impressively held seven of their last nine opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, they've connected on 48, 47, 45, 47, 42, 38 and 45 field goals over their last seven contests. They figure to get their opportunities against a road-weary Kings squad here. Sacramento has allowed 42 or more made field goals in seven of its last nine games. While the Kings took full advantage of a tired Pacers team last night, connecting on 51 field goals, they've actually been limited to 43 or fewer made field goals in four of their last six contests. Note that Sacramento has won three straight meetings in this series ATS but hasn't delivered four or more consecutive ATS victories over the Bulls since 2013-14. The Kings check in 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a double-digit road win and 15-17 ATS in their last 32 road contests with the line set between +3 and -3. Chicago is 29-21 ATS in its last 50 games as a home favorite of six points or less and 25-21 ATS in its last 46 contests following a road win. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
02-03-24 | Kansas State -1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Oklahoma State at 2 pm et on Saturday. Kansas State has fallen on hard times over its last three games and in particular in its last two contests, scoring only 52 and 53 points in losses against Houston and Oklahoma, respectively. I expect the Wildcats to bounce back on Saturday as they draw a manageable matchup at Oklahoma State. Kansas State still boasts a terrific defense. It has held eight of its last nine opponents to 23 or fewer made field goals. It should thrive in this matchup, noting that Oklahoma State has knocked down 22 or fewer field goals in six straight games. On the flip side, the Cowboys have sagged defensively, allowing nine of their last 11 opponents to connect on at least 25 field goals. In fact, five of their last eight foes have connected on 30 or more field goals. Note that Kansas State is 16-11 ATS in its last 27 lined road games. The Wildcats are also 5-1 ATS in their last six contests following an upset loss, as is the case here. Oklahoma State is a miserable 12-26 ATS in its last 38 games as an underdog and 10-16 ATS in its last 26 contests when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. Take Kansas State (10*). | |||||||
02-01-24 | Oregon v. USC +2 | Top | 78-69 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on USC plus the points over Oregon at 10:30 pm et on Thursday. This will be the second meeting between these Pac-12 opponents this season after Oregon posted an 82-74 win in Eugene back on December 28th. Note that the Ducks held a major advantage at the free throw line in that contest, getting there 32 times compared to the Trojans' 15. Oregon outscored USC 26-10 from the charity stripe, making up more than the difference in the game. The Trojans enter this contest riding a five-game losing streak. They connected on just 17 field goals in a dismal showing at home against UCLA last time out. Note that the only previous time they were held to fewer than 20 made field goals this season they rebounded with a double-digit win in their next contest (albeit against Brown). I like USC's chances of rebounding offensively here as well, noting that Oregon has allowed 27 or more made field goals in six of its last seven games. The Ducks have been ultra-consistent offensively but they're in uncharted territory right now having scored 70+ points in a season-high seven straight games. Oregon has won consecutive meetings in this series but hasn't delivered three straight victories over USC since owning the series from 2010-17. Note that Oregon is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as a road favorite including an 0-1 ATS mark this season. USC checks in 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite and 12-7 in its last 19 contests when the line is set between +3 and -3. Take USC (10*). | |||||||
02-01-24 | Pacers v. Knicks -3.5 | 105-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Indiana at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. This is undoubtedly a game the Knicks have had circled on their calendar since dropping an ugly 140-126 decision in Indiana back on December 30th. Since then, New York has gone 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS over its last 16 games. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team that's more locked-in defensively than the Knicks right now. They enter Thursday's action having held 10 straight and 15 of their last 16 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Pacers obviously pose a stiff challenge as they can score with the best of them but I think the Knicks can make them uncomfortable here, noting New York has limited four straight and 15 of its last 18 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Knicks have been scoring in bunches lately, knocking down 44 or more field goals in five of their last six contests. Indiana, meanwhile, has allowed 44 or more made field goals in seven of its last 10 games. Note that the Pacers are just 29-37 ATS in their last 66 games following a road loss and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 contests after an ATS win but SU loss on the road, as is the case here. The Knicks are 25-21 ATS in their last 46 contests as a home favorite of six points or less and 26-19 ATS in their last 45 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
01-31-24 | Arkansas v. Missouri -4.5 | 91-84 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Missouri minus the points over Arkansas at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. Missouri got off to a 7-2 start this season and gave Kansas all it could handle in Lawrence on December 9th. Unfortunately that loss to the Jayhawks kicked off a 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS slide. This is as good of a chance as any to end its seven-game losing streak as Mizzou hosts Arkansas on Wednesday. The Razorbacks are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS over their last seven contests. They did lose by 'only' six points at home against Kentucky on Saturday but that had more to do with the Wildcats having an off shooting day than anything else. While KenPom does have Arkansas ranking considerably higher than Missouri in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency, I would flip those rankings based on recent results. Arkansas has allowed nine of its last 10 opponents to hoist up 60 or more field goal attempts. Of the Hogs last 12 opponents, 10 have knocked down 25 or more field goals with three of their last seven foes connecting on more than 30. While Missouri hasn't been all that explosive offensively, it has been fairly consistent, knocking down at least 23 field goals in 18 of 20 games this season. Arkansas has been held to 20 or fewer made field goals in three of its last four games alone. On the flip side, Missouri has held six of its last eight opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that Arkansas is just 10-13 ATS in its last 23 lined road games and 7-12 ATS in its last 19 contests following a home loss in which it scored less than 60 points, as is the case here. Missouri is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games after scoring 65 points or less in consecutive games. Take Missouri (8*). | |||||||
01-30-24 | Oklahoma v. Kansas State -1.5 | 73-53 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas State minus the points over Oklahoma at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Kansas State got blasted on the road against Houston on Saturday as it was stymied by the Cougars elite defense, knocking down just 19-of-47 field goals in a 74-52 loss. I expect the Wildcats to bounce back on Tuesday as they return home to face Oklahoma. Kansas State has lost two games in a row SU and three straight ATS. Note that it is 9-1 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons (this marks the first time it has lost three straight games ATS over that stretch). The Wildcats are also 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after scoring 60 points or less in their previous contest. Oklahoma is coming off consecutive losses and has allowed five of its last seven opponents to knock down 26 or more field goals. In stark contrast, Kansas State has held seven of its last eight foes to 22 or fewer made field goals. KenPom has the Wildcats ranked just seven spots above the Sooners in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency but I believe that's a little light. Offensively, Oklahoma is superior but certainly not by all that wide of a margin and home court is the great equalizer here. Note that the Sooners are just 9-14 ATS in their last 23 games as a road underdog. They haven't proven to be a great bounce-back team, going 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games following a home loss in-conference. Take Kansas State (8*). | |||||||
01-30-24 | Pacers +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 124-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. There's nothing to fear when it comes to facing the Celtics right now as they've clearly been off their game in recent weeks, going 8-10 ATS over their last 18 games. They're in a tough back-to-back spot on Tuesday after staging a massive fourth quarter rally against the Pelicans to avoid a second straight defeat. Note that Boston has been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in nine of its last 11 games. On the flip side, it has allowed more than 40 made field goals in six straight contests with its last four opponents connecting on 43, 42, 45 and 46 field goals. The Pacers on the other hand have reeled off three straight wins and are heating up again offensively, knocking down 43, 53, 58 and 44 field goals over their last four games. They've also held five of their last seven foes to 44 or fewer made field goals - that's progress for this team defensively. The Celtics will be looking to avenge a 133-131 loss in Indiana back on January 8th but they check in just 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Pacers are 44-38 ATS in their last 82 games as a road underdog. Take Indiana (10*). | |||||||
01-29-24 | Houston v. Texas +5.5 | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas plus the points over Houston at 9 pm et on Monday. These two teams had much different outcomes on Saturday as Houston rolled to a 74-52 home win over Kansas State while Texas fell by a score of 84-72 at Big 12 newcomer BYU. I expect this in-state showdown to go down to the wire on Monday and will grab all the points I can get with the Longhorns. Note that Houston is just 2-4 ATS in its last six games as a road favorite of six points or less. The Cougars are also a miserable 3-9 ATS in their last 12 contests following a win by 20 points or more against a conference foe. Texas may not rank as highly as Houston in terms of offensive efficiency this season but there's no denying it has been ultra-consistent. The Longhorns have knocked down at least 24 field goals in all 20 games. They'll obviously be tested by Houston's incredible defense on Monday. By nature, Houston has a tendency to shorten proceedings as it checks in ranked 350th in the country in adjusted tempo (according to KenPom). That generally favors the underdog. Note that Texas can play some defense too, noting it has held five straight opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. The Longhorns are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a double-digit loss against a conference opponent. They're also 8-6 ATS in their last 14 contests after giving up 80 points or more in their previous game. Take Texas (8*). | |||||||
01-29-24 | Jazz v. Nets | 114-147 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn over Utah at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Jazz are 9-2 ATS over their last 11 games, scoring 120 or more points in all 11 of those contests. I think they'll be hard-pressed to reach that number on Monday, however, as they continue their road trip in Brooklyn. While the Utah offense is flying its defense leaves a lot to be desired. Note that the Jazz have allowed 48, 45, 60, 43 and 47 made field goals over their last five games. In stark contrast, the Nets have held eight straight and 10 of their last 12 opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Note only that but Brooklyn has limited 10 of its last 13 foes to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. While the Nets offense has connected on only 35 and 36 field goals over its last two games, keep in mind it got off only 77 and 74 field goal attempts. Prior to that it had hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts in three straight games, knocking down 50, 44 and 42. It should enjoy a free-flowing environment here given Utah has allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in 10 of its last 14 contests. Note that the Jazz are just 10-11 ATS in their last 21 games following consecutive ATS victories as a favorite and 10-13 ATS in their last 23 contests after scoring 130 points or more in their previous game. The Nets are 27-22 ATS in their last 49 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent including 6-4 ATS this season. Take Brooklyn (8*). | |||||||
01-29-24 | Clippers v. Cavs +2.5 | Top | 108-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Clippers roll into this game on the heels of five straight wins, including a stunning rout of the Celtics in Boston on Saturday. The Cavaliers are also red hot, however, having won nine of their last 10 games and I look for them to give the Clips all they can handle on Monday. Note that Los Angeles, while known for its stout defense, has played a little looser lately, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in four straight games. Of Los Angeles' last eight opponents, six have managed to knock down more than 40 field goals. The Cavs don't generally play at a fast pace but have appeared comfortable doing so during their current run, hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in four of their last six contests. They remain as locked-in defensively as any team in the league right now having held six of their last seven opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Clips are just 10-13 ATS in their last 23 games following an upset win and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 contests when that upset win came on the road. They're also a long-term 15-23 ATS in their last 38 games following five straight ATS wins. Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 contests following a double-digit upset win on the road, as is the case here. The Cavs are also a long-term 41-26 ATS in their last 67 games following a double-digit victory. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
01-28-24 | Suns v. Magic +2 | 98-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Phoenix at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have lost consecutive games and are just 2-7 over their last nine contests as they've sunken into a bit of an offensive slump. The Suns might be just the opponent to bring them out of it on Sunday, however, noting that Phoenix has allowed 10 straight opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals (Orlando has connected on fewer than 40 field goals in nine straight contests) with each of its last seven foes getting off at least 89 field goal attempts. Defensively, the Magic continue to play well. Here at home they've limited the opposition to 39-of-84 shooting this season. They've held nine of their last 10 foes to 43 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Suns are just 10-12 ATS including 0-4 ATS this season when coming off a game in which they scored 130 or more points, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Magic 21-17 ATS in their last 38 games following a loss by three points or less and a perfect 2-0 ATS this season following an upset defeat. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
01-27-24 | Kings -1.5 v. Mavs | 120-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Dallas at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. You have to figure the Kings were sitting back enjoying last night's incredible performance from Mavericks superstar Luka Doncic. Dallas narrowly escaped with a victory thanks to Doncic's 73-point explosion in Atlanta. Note that he played 44-of-48 minutes in that contest and now Dallas has to turn around and play its third game in four nights. The Kings went through a lull earlier this month, dropping four straight games but have since rebounded with two wins in a row. Their offense is certainly rounding back into form having knocked down 55, 46, 44, 43 and 48 field goals over their last five contests. The Mavs connected on 51 field goals (Doncic accounted for nearly half of them) in last night's victory but that marked the first time in eight games they made good on more than 44 field goals. Note that the road team has gone 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series including a 129-113 Kings victory here in Dallas back in November. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
01-26-24 | Ohio +3.5 v. Kent State | Top | 71-64 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio plus the points over Kent State at 6:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for the underdog Bobcats as they look to bounce back following a home loss to Akron last time out. Kent State is fresh off a minor upset win at Bowling Green earlier this week but checks in having lost consecutive games at home. Note that the Golden Flashes have won four straight meetings in this series. That's worth mentioning as they haven't won five in a row against the Bobcats since 2009-11. The last time they managed to win four straight games in this series was back in 2014-16 and they went on to lose the next two meetings. While Ohio doesn't rate out all that highly in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency this season it has played better in that regard lately. The Bobcats have held four straight and nine of their last 11 opponents to 26 or fewer made field goals. Kent State on the other hand has given up 28 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests. Offensively, the two teams have been almost mirror images however you could argue that Ohio has been the more consistent team lately in that regard, connecting on 26 or more field goals in six of its last seven games (Kent State made good on 21, 32, 21 and 31 field goals over its last four contests). Ohio is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 games following a road loss against a conference opponent. The Bobcats are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests after being held to 60 points or less in their previous game. Meanwhile, Kent State is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 games following a road win in which it scored 85 points or more, as is the case here. The Golden Flashes are also just 1-5 ATS following an ATS victory this season. Take Ohio (10*). | |||||||
01-25-24 | Kings -2 v. Warriors | Top | 134-133 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Warriors here as they play the second of back-to-backs following an emotional return to the floor (following the death of their assistant coach last week) in a rout of the Hawks last night. Sacramento comes in rested following consecutive off days, which came on the heels of a much-needed 122-107 win over those same Hawks on Monday. That victory snapped a four-game losing skid. Note that Sacramento is still 5-2 ATS over its last seven contests as the schedule has certainly gotten tougher lately. This marks the start of a key seven-game road trip for the Kings. Note that they check in 26-17 ATS in their last 43 games as a road favorite and 18-10 ATS in their last 28 contests after losing four of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 4-15 ATS in their last 19 games after scoring 130 points or more in their previous contest, as is the case here. They're also just 11-14 ATS in their last 25 contests following a win by 20 points or more. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
01-24-24 | Mississippi State +4 v. Florida | Top | 70-79 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Week. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Florida at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. Mississippi State checks in 0-2-1 ATS over its last three games but I look for it to break out of that slump as it travels to Gainesville to face the Gators on Wednesday. The Bulldogs are an underdog we like to back as they have the ability to consistently erase opponents' possessions and effectively shorten proceedings. Note that they've limited the opposition to 22-of-56 shooting on average on the road this season. They've held seven of their last eight opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals and that's notable as Florida is just 1-5 ATS when knocking down 27 or fewer field goals this season. The Gators check in off a double-digit win at Missouri last time out, successfully rebounding from a blowout loss in Tennessee four nights earlier. Florida has been as Jekyll-and-Hyde as it gets, particularly on defense as it has given up more than 30 made field goals in three of its last five contests. It has had no desire to slow the pace, certainly not at home where it has yielded an average of 65 field goal attempts per game to the opposition. Noting the Bulldogs have knocked down 25 or more field goals in six straight and nine of their last 10 games overall, I look for them to take full advantage here. The underdog has gone 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. The Bulldogs are 20-15 ATS in their last 35 road games as an underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. Meanwhile, the Gators are just 13-17 ATS in their last 30 contests following a double-digit victory. Take Mississippi State (10*). | |||||||
01-24-24 | Hornets +3 v. Pistons | Top | 106-113 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. It may seem a little strange to be throwing around a term like 'revenge' when it comes to two teams that have combined for only four wins this season. I believe it works in this particular situation, however. Charlotte actually opened the campaign with an upset win at home against Atlanta. It couldn't build on that victory though as it fell as a 4.5-point favorite at home against the lowly Pistons two nights later. Note that the road team is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven meetings in this series. Charlotte dealt Terry Rozier to the Heat in exchange for Kyle Lowry and a first round draft pick yesterday. It was the right move. Rozier certainly adds a lot offensively, particularly as a facilitator but he has become a liability defensively this season. Consider it a case of addition by subtraction at that end of the floor. Note that the Hornets have actually held up reasonably well defensively in recent weeks. They've limited seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They also enter this contest having held four of their last five foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. It's been a much different story for the Pistons. They've allowed six of their last seven opponents to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. You would have to go back nine games to find the last time they limited an opponent to fewer than 41 made field goals. Note that Charlotte is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite. This season, the Hornets are 6-4 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, which is also the situation here. Detroit on the other hand is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games as a home favorite including an 0-3 ATS mark this season. It is also a long-term 8-18 ATS in its last 26 contests when playing at home with the total set at 230 points or higher, as is the case here. Take Charlotte (10*). | |||||||
01-23-24 | Boston College +5.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Virginia Tech at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Like clockwork, Boston College has delivered five straight outright victories as an underdog in this series, going a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. While I'm not calling for an outright win on Tuesday, I do expect the Eagles to once again hang tough against the Hokies in Blacksburg. Note that Boston College has dropped the cash in four straight games, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is fresh off an 84-78 upset win at N.C. State on Saturday. We have seen the Hokies offense sag at times since the beginning of ACC play, knocking down 26 or fewer field goals in four of six games. Also note that Virginia Tech plays at a rather methodical pace, hoisting up 58 or fewer field goal attempts in each of its last 11 and 16 of 18 games overall this season. That leaves little margin for error when you're laying a considerable number of points as the Hokies are on Tuesday. On the flip side, we've seen Virginia Tech's opposition get some good looks, connecting on 30, 28, 28, 27, 25 and 26 field goals in its last six contests. Boston College has run into a bit of a shooting slump, knocking down only 21 and 19 field goals in its last two games. Note that prior to that, the Eagles had made good on an impressive 30 or more field goals in six of their previous eight contests. Defensively, we've actually seen some improvement from Boston College lately as it has limited three of its last four opponents to 25 of fewer made field goals. Note that the Eagles are 17-12 ATS in their last 29 games following a loss against a conference opponent. They're also 13-7 ATS in their last 20 contests after losing four games in a row ATS. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is 15-23 ATS in its last 38 games following an upset win away from home and 23-26 ATS in its last 49 contests as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. Take Boston College (10*). | |||||||
01-22-24 | Cincinnati v. Kansas -7 | Top | 69-74 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Cincinnati at 9 pm et on Monday. Kansas was stunned as a double-digit road favorite against West Virginia on Saturday but I look for the Jayhawks to bounce back on as they return home to face Cincinnati on Monday. That loss to the Mountaineers doesn't change the fact that Kansas is an offensive juggernaut having knocked down 31, 32, 24, 29, 36 and 32 field goals over its last six games. The Jayhawks have held four straight opponents to 60 or fewer field goal attempts. West Virginia quite simply shot the lights out against them on Saturday. It happens. Cincinnati is finding the Big 12 about as difficult as expected having dropped three of its last four games. Since the start of conference play, the Bearcats have been held to 24 or fewer made field goals in three of five games. Note that Cincinnati is just 33-40 ATS in its last 73 games following an upset loss in-conference, as is the case here. Kansas checks in a long-term 41-29 ATS off a road loss in Big 12 play. It's easy to think the sky is falling in Lawrence following a loss like the Jayhawks suffered on Saturday. That's simply not the case, however, as Kansas is 15-3 on the campaign despite facing the 26th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom. Take Kansas (10*). | |||||||
01-22-24 | Cavs -1 v. Magic | Top | 126-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Cavaliers got off to a difficult start this season but they've since turned it around, going 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS over their last 15 games. Perhaps no team is as locked-in defensively as Cleveland right now as it has held four straight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals and an incredible 11 straight foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Orlando delivered a blowout win over Miami last night. The Magic aren't exactly setting the world on fire offensively right now as they've knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in seven straight games. In fact, they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in 14 straight contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs have connected on 43 or more field goals in six of their last nine games including 49 or more three times over that stretch. Note that Cleveland is 40-25 ATS in its last 65 games following a double-digit win, as is the case here. The Cavs are also a long-term 48-43 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent in which they allowed 100 or more points. Orlando is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 contests following a win over a division opponent and 13-17 ATS in its last 30 contests after a double-digit victory. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
01-21-24 | Fairfield v. Manhattan +7.5 | Top | 82-75 | Win | 100 | 17 h 36 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Manhattan plus the points over Fairfield at 2 pm et on Sunday. While Fairfield is coming off a hard-fought nine-point home win over St. Peter's on Friday, Manhattan has been idle since last Sunday, when it suffered its eighth straight defeat. I look for the Jaspers to give the Stags all they can handle in this spot, noting Manhattan has gone 30-24 ATS in its last 54 games as an underdog and 25-22 ATS in its last 47 contests following a double-digit home loss. While Fairfield's offense has been humming it has been vulnerable defensively, allowing 30, 28, 26, 23, 34, 26 and 26 field goals over its last seven contests. Manhattan has employed a similar matador-like defense but it isn't the team laying all the points in this spot. Fairfield is 9-13 ATS in its last 22 games played on one day or less of rest and 2-7 ATS in its last nine contests following a home win over a conference opponent. Additionally, the Stags are a long-term 22-29 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games. Also note that the underdog is 5-0-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take Manhattan (10*). | |||||||
01-20-24 | Thunder v. Wolves -2.5 | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. While the Thunder were involved in a barn-burner in Utah on Thursday, the Timberwolves were cruising to a comfortable win at home against the undermanned Grizzlies. I think it's advantage Minnesota in this spot as it looks to exact revenge for a 129-106 loss suffered in Oklahoma City on Boxing Day. Oklahoma City checks in having allowed 44, 47 and 43 made field goals in its first three games on its current four-game road trip. We know what the Thunder are capable of offensively but they run into a tough matchup here, noting that the Timberwolves have held opponents to an average of just 38 made field goals per game at home this season and have limited five of their last six foes to fewer than 40 made field goals. While the Thunder will be looking ahead to a couple of much needed days off and a return home, the Timberwolves will stay at home as they wrap up their three-game homestand with a game against the Hornets on Monday. Note that Oklahoma City is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 games following a road win over a division opponent, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Minnesota is a long-term 51-33 ATS in its last 84 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 or more points. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
01-20-24 | Georgia +12 v. Kentucky | 96-105 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia plus the points over Kentucky at 6 pm et on Saturday. I'm not buying what the betting marketplace is selling when it comes to Kentucky. The Wildcats are coming off a rout of Mississippi State on Wednesday as they quite simply shot the lights out and also enjoyed a considerable advantage at the free throw line. Still, the Wildcats defense continues to struggle. Kentucky has allowed 26 or more made field goals in six straight games and 25 or more in 12 contests in a row. Georgia got off to a miserable start this season but has since turned things around, going 11-1 SU and 8-3-1 ATS over its last 12 games. The Bulldogs have limited four of their last six opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. Note that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this series. We'll confidently fade the Wildcats knowing they've gone 8-15 ATS in their last 23 games following a home win in which they scored 85 points or more, as is the case here. Georgia is 6-3 ATS in its last nine contests following an upset win, which is also the situation on Saturday. Take Georgia (8*). | |||||||
01-19-24 | Nuggets +6 v. Celtics | Top | 102-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Celtics are an incredible 20-0 at home this season but I do think the Nuggets are poised to give them a run on Friday at TD Garden. Boston is coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS. Note that the Celtics are just 12-23 ATS in their last 35 games following consecutive ATS victories in a favorite role and 3-6 ATS in their last nine contests when coming off three straight covers as a fave, as is the case here. Boston is also 6-11 ATS in its last 17 games after holding consecutive opponents to 100 points or less, which is also the situation here. Denver had virtually all hands on deck for Tuesday's game in Philadelphia but ultimately fell by a 126-121 score. Having had a couple of days off to chew on that loss, I look for the Nuggets to bounce back on Friday. Note that Denver is 24-15 ATS in its last 39 contests after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS, as is the case here. The Nuggets check in red hot offensively having knocked down 45 or more field goals in five of their last six games. They figure to be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a Celtics squad that has allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in 12 straight games. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
01-19-24 | 76ers v. Magic +5.5 | 124-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Friday. The 76ers have owned the Magic in recent years but I like the way this spot sets up for Orlando at home on Friday. The Magic are admittedly in a bit of an offensive funk right now but that will happen when you go on a road trip that includes stops in Miami, Oklahoma City, New York and Atlanta (I'm not saying the Hawks are an elite defensive team but they are tough at home). I do think the Magic are catching the 76ers at the right time as Philadelphia has looked beatable defensively in recent games, allowing 43, 46, 48, 32, 44 and 45 made field goals over its last six contests. On the flip side, the 76ers have been held to 43 or fewer made field goals themselves in seven of their last eight games. Orlando should get a boost from returning home and it's worth noting that it has held opponents to an average of just 39 made field goals per game on this floor. You would have to go back seven games to find the last time the Magic allowed an opponent to knock down more than 43 field goals. Note that Philadelphia is a long-term 29-32 ATS in its last 61 games following three consecutive ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here. The Magic are 71-57 ATS in their last 128 games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent and 21-16 ATS in their last 37 contests following a loss by six points or less. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
01-18-24 | Washington State +2.5 v. Stanford | 89-75 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Stanford at 11 pm et on Thursday. I have little faith in Stanford's matador-like defense, noting that the Cardinal have allowed 27 or more made field goals in six of their last seven games and have yielded 61 or more field goal attempts to the opposition in eight of their last 10 contests. On the flip side, Washington State checks in having held 12 of its last 15 opponents to 61 or fewer field goal attempts. The Cougars rank 54th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. While Stanford's pace will certainly test Washington State, I don't think it's anything the Cougars haven't seen before. After all, they just upset Arizona (which ranks ninth in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom) last Saturday. Note that Washington State is 19-12 ATS in its last 31 games following a win in-conference as an underdog of six points or more, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Stanford is just 1-5 ATS in its last six contests off consecutive victories in-conference. Take Washington State (8*). | |||||||
01-18-24 | Bulls -2.5 v. Raptors | 116-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Toronto at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. The Raptors played with plenty of emotion on the same day Pascal Siakam was dealt to the Pacers, routing the Heat to snap a four-game losing streak. Now they're in a tough back-to-back spot, however, as they host a rested Bulls squad that should be in a foul mood following Monday's no-show in Cleveland. That blowout loss in Cleveland brought an end to Chicago's streak of five straight games knocking down 40 or more field goals. It wasn't all bad news, however, as the Bulls did hold Cleveland to just 39 made field goals - their second straight contest limiting the opposition to fewer than 40 made field goals. Note that Chicago checks in 33-27 ATS in its last 60 games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
01-17-24 | Nets -6 v. Blazers | 103-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Trail Blazers stunned the Nets in Brooklyn last week, winning 134-127 as 9.5-point underdogs. I look for the Nets to answer back as the scene shifts to the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. Brooklyn should be able to put plenty of pressure on the Blazers sagging defense here. The Nets have hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in eight of their last nine games. Portland, meanwhile, has allowed 44 or more made field goals in five of its last six contests and hasn't really had the ability to dictate the tempo of its opposition this season. While Brooklyn has lost three straight games and eight of its last nine overall, it has at least shown signs of righting the ship defensively. The Nets have held six of their last seven opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and four of their last six foes to 41 or fewer made field goals. Note that Brooklyn is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite of seven points or more. It also checks in 17-13 ATS in its last 30 contests following three straight losses. Meanwhile, the Blazers are a long-term 19-32 ATS as a home underdog and 11-19 ATS in their last 30 home games as an underdog of six points or less. Take Brooklyn (8*). | |||||||
01-17-24 | Mississippi State +7 v. Kentucky | Top | 77-90 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Kentucky at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams are coming off narrow defeats in conference play with Mississippi State dropping an 82-74 decision at home against Alabama and Kentucky falling by a 97-92 score at Texas A&M. I don't believe there's as much separating these two squads as the line would seem to indicate. The Bulldogs are an elite defensive team, currently ranked inside the top-10 in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Incredibly, they've held all 16 opponents they've faced to 28 or fewer made field goals this season with 12 of those knocking down 24 or less. Kentucky does play at a considerably faster pace than Mississippi State but there's no denying its opponents have been 'filling it up' as it has allowed 26 or more made field goals in 10 of its last 11 contests. On the flip side, the Wildcats have regularly been connecting on 30+ field goals but they've also gotten off 63 or more field goal attempts in six of their last seven contests. Only six of Mississippi State's 16 opponents have hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts this season with a high water mark of only 64. This is a game the Bulldogs have undoubtedly had circled on their calendar having lost two straight meetings in this series. Note that while Kentucky has controlled this series for the most part, the games have been close with six straight matchups having been decided by eight points or less. Mississippi State is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games when coming off an upset loss as a favorite in-conference, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Kentucky is just 10-16 ATS in its last 26 contests after winning two of its last three games ATS. Take Mississippi State (10*). | |||||||
01-15-24 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +8.5 | Top | 107-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 6 pm et on Monday. The Warriors opened their current road trip with a win in Chicago as they rallied for a wild 140-131 victory. They couldn't keep it going the next night as they dropped a double-digit decision in Milwaukee (Steph Curry was given the night off). While this looks like a prime bounce-back spot given the current state of the Grizzlies roster, I'm not so easily convinced. Memphis lost by 'only' 11 points against a red hot Knicks squad with a lineup that looked like what you would expect in the preseason on Saturday. Note that the Grizzlies have held five of their last seven opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. Regardless who is able to suit up for Memphis on Monday, it should thrive offensively. Note that the opposition has been 'filling it up' against the Warriors lately, knocking down 50 or more field goals in four straight games against them and 48 or more in six of the last eight contests. Note that the underdog has gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings in this series. The Grizzlies check in 17-10 ATS in their last 27 games after scoring 100 points or less in their previous contest, as is the case here. They're also 27-17 ATS in their lat 44 games following consecutive ATS losses. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
01-14-24 | Kings +5.5 v. Bucks | Top | 142-143 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Kings got their current road trip off to a perfect 2-0 start before running into the 76ers in Philadelphia on Friday. The road won't get any easier with a stop in Milwaukee on deck on Sunday but I look for Sacramento to hang tough. This is undoubtedly a matchup the Kings have had circled on their calendar having lost an incredible 14 straight meetings in this series going back to 2016. There have been plenty of close games over that stretch and I certainly feel that the Kings have closed the talent gap somewhat in recent years. Note that the Kings enter this contest sporting a 10-8 road record (11-7 ATS) while the Bucks are 18-3 SU at home but a money-burning 8-13 ATS. Sacramento has quietly held three straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. Going back farther, the Kings have limited 15 of their last 19 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Sacramento has hoisted up more than 90 field goal attempts in seven of its last eight contests. The Bucks have shown on interest or ability to slow down the opposition, yielding at least 90 field goal attempts in 16 of their last 18 contests. The Kings are a long-term 60-42 ATS when playing on the road and 34-26 ATS in their last 60 road games as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Bucks are just 37-41 ATS in their last 78 games following a home win and a long-term 80-103 ATS when coming off consecutive home victories. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
01-14-24 | Washington v. UCLA +3.5 | 61-73 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA plus the points over Washington at 7 pm et on Sunday. We'll fade Washington off its win and cover against Arizona State on Thursday. UCLA had a much different result on that same night as it dropped a 90-44 decision at Utah. The Bruins have been a pretty big disappointment to this point of the season and the turnaround needs to start now. The good news is, they've won eight straight meetings in this series. Note that Washington is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games off a double-digit home win, as is the case here. UCLA is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 contests after losing three of its last four games ATS and 3-1 ATS in its last four games after giving up 80 points or more in its previous contest. Take UCLA (8*). | |||||||
01-13-24 | Pelicans v. Mavs -2.5 | 118-108 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New Orleans at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. While this isn't necessarily a 'throwaway game' for the Pelicans, it's as close to it as it gets. New Orleans is already off to a 2-1 start on its current five-game road trip, which wraps up with this two-game in three-night set in Dallas. The tough part here is that the Pelicans are coming off a double-digit loss in Denver last night - a high-scoring affair in which they expended plenty of energy trying to fight back all night long, to no avail. Often teams that play a back-to-back with the front half taking place in the high altitude of Denver will play the second half in Utah, also in high altitude (or vice-versa). That's obviously not the case here. The Mavericks had yesterday off following Thursday's 128-124 home win over the Knicks. Dallas has now won four of its last five games SU and ATS and has gone 8-3 ATS since December 23rd. Luka Doncic remains sidelined but Kyrie Irving appears to be relishing the role of top dog again, fresh off scoring 33 or more points in three straight games. Note that New Orleans is 14-28 ATS in its last 42 road games after winning four or five of its last six games ATS, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Dallas is 36-22 ATS in its last 58 contests when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
01-13-24 | California v. Oregon -8 | Top | 73-80 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 31 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over California at 8 pm et on Saturday. I can't help but think California is walking into a hornet's nest in Eugene on Saturday. The Golden Bears trailed big early but staged a furious rally in the second half to upset Colorado two nights ago in Berkeley. Now they have to hit the road to face a red hot Oregon squad that has won five straight and eight of its last nine games, going 7-2 ATS over that stretch. The Ducks have been idle since last Saturday's five-point win as an underdog at Washington State. Cal has been thriving offensively but here it runs into an Oregon squad that has held seven of its last eight opponents to 56 field goal attempts or less. Note that Cal is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight games following consecutive wins. Meanwhile, Oregon is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games after allowing 80 points or more in its previous contest, as is the case here. Take Oregon (10*). | |||||||
01-12-24 | Manhattan v. Rider -10 | 58-71 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Rider minus the points over Manhattan at 7 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure the average better realizes just how bad Manhattan is this season. The Jaspers rank 342nd out of 362 Division-I teams according to KenPom. Their offense ranks 351st. Rider is still trying to get loose following a tough start to the season that was largely fuelled by a difficult schedule (the Broncs have faced the 95th most difficult schedule in the nation according to KenPom). We saw positive strides from the Broncs last weekend as they took Quinnipiac down to the wire in a four-point road loss before outlasting Canisius in overtime back at home. Note that Manhattan is currently on a 1-5 ATS slide while the favorite has gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings in this series. Take Rider (8*). | |||||||
01-11-24 | Michigan v. Maryland -5.5 | Top | 57-64 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Maryland minus the points over Michigan at 7 pm et on Thursday. Both of these Big Ten squads enter on a downturn with the Wolverines having dropped four in a row SU and five straight games ATS and the Terrapins fresh off three straight losses, including two in a row ATS. I think it's Maryland that's much better-positioned to rebound on Thursday. The Wolverines matador-like defense just isn't cutting it. Michigan has allowed a boatload of scoring opportunities on a seemingly every game basis and its opposition has made the most of those opportunities, knocking down 26 or more field goals in eight straight games. The Terps offense went cold over the last couple of games but that was to be expected against the likes of Purdue and Minnesota. Here, taking a step down in class should benefit the Terps. Maryland does possess a defense as well, having held five straight opponents to fewer than 26 made field goals and an impressive eight straight foes to 26 or less. The home team has owned this series lately, taking five straight meetings both SU and ATS. Take Maryland (10*). | |||||||
01-10-24 | Colorado -5 v. California | 78-82 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 11 pm et on Wednesday. Colorado is coming off a disappointing trip through Arizona last weekend as it dropped games against the Wildcats and Sun Devils. I expect it to bounce back here, however, as it heads to Berkeley to take on the Bears who are in a prime letdown spot off an upset win over rival UCLA last Saturday. That win over the Bruins had more to do with UCLA having an off night than anything else. The Bruins couldn't get anything going, knocking down just 21-of-49 field goal attempts in the loss. The Bears offense remained sluggish and ranks 113th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Colorado sits 33rd in the country in that department. The Buffaloes are a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games after giving up 75 points or more in consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Cal is just 7-18 ATS in its last 25 lined home games. Take Colorado (8*). | |||||||
01-10-24 | 76ers +2.5 v. Hawks | 132-139 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers had a brutal back-to-back set at home against New York and Utah last Friday and Saturday. The absence of Joel Embiid has certainly hurt their cause but this is still a team that has enough talent to hang, even without their big man. They got caught trying to do too much on Saturday against the Jazz, hoisting up an uncharacteristic 104 field goal attempts in the 120-109 loss. I think we'll see a much more composed 76ers squad on Wednesday as they come off a much-needed three-day break. They'll certainly get their opportunities against a Hawks team that has allowed more than 90 field goal attempts in four straight and six of their last seven games. Of their last 11 opponents, nine have knocked down at least 43 field goals. Only three of Philadelphia's last 15 foes have made good on 43 or more field goals. The Hawks can score with the best of them but despite hoisting up more than 90 field goal attempts in five straight games, they've connected on 42 or fewer field goals in three of those contests. Note that the 76ers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following consecutive upset losses, as is the case here. They're also 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss. The Hawks on the other hand are just 33-41 ATS in their last 74 games as a home favorite and 18-26 ATS in their last 44 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, which is the situation here. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
01-08-24 | Suns +6.5 v. Clippers | 111-138 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Suns dropped a 121-115 home decision against the Grizzlies last night as they essentially folded the tent in the fourth quarter and let Memphis off the hook. That doesn't change the fact that Phoenix has been playing better lately, particularly from an offensive standpoint. Note that the Suns have knocked down 44 or more field goals in five of their last seven games. They'll head to Los Angeles on Monday to face a Clippers squad that is fresh off a 106-103 loss to the Lakers last night. While Los Angeles has been stacking wins, you can almost sense a downturn coming. The Clippers offense has stagnated somewhat, making good on 42 or fewer field goals in five of their last seven contests. Of course, there was a 131-point outburst against these same Suns in Phoenix last week but I think the Clips will be hard-pressed to repeat that performance in this back-to-back spot. Note that the road team has gone 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in this series. I noted that Phoenix's offense has been trending up and you could argue it has played better defensive basketball on the road compared to at home this season, allowing just a shade under 112 points per game which is around two points per game fewer than its overall season average. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
01-08-24 | Celtics v. Pacers +4 | 131-133 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The Celtics had little trouble disposing of the Pacers on this floor two nights ago. I expect a different story to unfold in Monday's rematch. Indiana was in a difficult spot on Saturday as it poured in 150 points in a rout of the Hawks the night previous, using up much of what it had in the tank. Boston on the other hand shifted into cruise control relatively early in a victory over the Jazz one night earlier. It's also worth noting that Saturday's affair was a revenge spot for the C's after they dropped a 122-112 decision in Indiana in early December. The shoe is on the other foot here. Note that the Pacers are 31-22 ATS in their last 53 games when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here. Indiana is also 22-15 ATS in its last 37 contests as a home underdog six points or less. The Celtics on the other hand are a miserable 11-22 ATS in their last 33 games following consecutive ATS wins as favorites. They're also just 13-18 ATS in their last 31 contests after holding their last two opponents to 105 points or less, which is the situation here. Take Indiana (8*). | |||||||
01-07-24 | Clippers v. Lakers +5 | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on the Lakers plus the points over the Clippers at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. These two teams appear headed in opposite directions right now with the Clippers having won five games in a row SU and four straight ATS while the Lakers have dropped four straight contests including three in a row ATS. We'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Lakers on Sunday, however, as I see this as a favorable spot. The Lakers have been home since the turn of the New Year but have nothing to show for it, dropping back-to-back games against the Heat and Grizzlies at Crypto.com Arena. It's been quite a slide since winning the inaugural in-season tournament but there is an opportunity here to start turning things around as this is only the third game of a five-game homestand. The Clippers are probably feeling pretty good about themselves after opening their current road trip with wins in Phoenix and New Orleans. This is where things get a little tricky as they'll play against the Lakers tonight before hosting the Suns tomorrow. Note that the Clippers are a long-term 61-98 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite, as is the case here. They're also 39-69 ATS when coming off four or more consecutive ATS victories. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 32-25 ATS in their last 57 games following a double-digit loss and 61-47 ATS in their last 108 contests following an ATS defeat. Take the Lakers (8*). | |||||||
01-06-24 | California v. UCLA -6 | 66-57 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over California at 10 pm et on Saturday. UCLA is reeling right now having lost two straight and six of its last seven games overall. A home date against California should be just what it needs to right the ship, however. Note that the Bruins have taken 11 straight meetings against the Bears with eight of those wins coming by double-digit margins. Cal is off to an 0-3 start in Pac-12 play and has dropped the cash in five straight games overall. The Bears sit a middling 154th in KenPom's national rankings - 63 spots south of UCLA. The Bruins actually check in having held four straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. I believe their offensive woes can be fixed and it's worth noting that Cal has allowed opponents to stuff boxscores, allowing four of its last six foes to knock down more than 30 field goals. The Bears are just 9-12 ATS in their last 21 games following three straight losses against conference opponents. Meanwhile, UCLA is 22-16 ATS in its last 38 contests after being held to 55 points or less. Take UCLA (8*). | |||||||
01-06-24 | Oregon State v. Washington -12.5 | Top | 72-79 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Oregon State at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Huskies are surprisingly at the bottom of the Pac-12 standings sporting an 0-3 record in early conference action. Keep in mind, this is a team that upset Gonzaga earlier this season and ranks just outside the top-50 in the country according to KenPom. Not only that but the Huskies are battle-tested having faced the 17th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season (also according to KenPom). They let Oregon off the hook two nights ago, jumping out in front by a wide margin early before settling for a halftime lead but then folding in the final 20 minutes. Of course, Oregon is no pushover. Here, Washington should benefit from facing an Oregon State squad that figures to eventually reside near the bottom of the Pac-12 standings. The Beavers currently rank 159th in KenPom's national rankings and have only faced the 146th toughest slate of opponents. The home team has gone 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Note that Oregon State is just 9-17 ATS in its last 26 games following an ATS victory, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Washington is an exceptional 18-5 ATS in its last 23 contests following a loss against a conference foe. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
01-05-24 | Niagara -1 v. Manhattan | Top | 81-67 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Manhattan at 7 pm et on Friday. The Purple Eagles are off to an 0-2 start in MAAC play but they draw a favorable matchup on the road against Manhattan on Friday. Note that Niagara is coming off an upset win at Buffalo last time out. It should be able to take advantage of a Jaspers squad that has seen the opposition 'fill it up' this season and particularly of late. Manhattan has given up 36, 34, 31, 25, 28, 29 and 26 made field goals over its last seven games. Even in the game where it allowed just 25 made field goals it still suffered a double-digit loss on the road against MAAC foe Marist. Niagara is 21-18 ATS in its last 39 road games as a favorite of three points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Manhattan is just 12-15 ATS in its last 27 lined home contests. Take Niagara (10*). | |||||||
01-04-24 | Oregon State v. Washington State -11 | 58-65 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State minus the points over Oregon State at 11 pm et on Thursday. This is a straightforward fade of Oregon State after it stunned USC by a score of 86-70 last Saturday. Meanwhile, Washington State should come out on fire after dropping both road tilts in Pac-12 play last weekend, at Utah and Colorado. That was certainly a tough two-game road trip but the Cougars would have liked to have at least stolen one. Note that Washington State still ranks 98 spots north of Oregon State according to KenPom this season, with both teams facing almost an identical level of opposition (in terms of strength of schedule). Note that Oregon State has gone 0-7 ATS in its last seven games following a double-digit victory. Take Washington State (8*). | |||||||
01-04-24 | Oregon v. Washington -3.5 | 76-74 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Oregon at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Huskies will look to flip the script on the Ducks on Thursday after getting off to an 0-2 start in Pac-12 play with consecutive tight losses against two tough teams in Colorado and Utah, on the road no less, last weekend. Oregon outlasted USC and UCLA in a pair of tightly-contested matchups of its own last weekend to jump out to a perfect 2-0 start in conference play. Note that Washington still ranks five spots clear of Oregon in KenPom's national rankings. The Huskies are battle-tested to be sure having faced the 16th toughest schedule in the country so far this season. While the Ducks do have some quality wins on their resume, they've only gone up against the 110th most difficult slate of opponents. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
01-03-24 | Stanford v. UCLA -3.5 | 59-53 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Stanford at 9 pm et on Wednesday. UCLA returns home following an unsurprising 1-1 (2-0 ATS) trip through Oregon last weekend. Meanwhile, Stanford is in a prime letdown spot following a stunning blowout victory over Arizona last time out. The win actually snapped a two-game slide for the Cardinal, including a home loss against Arizona State in Pac-12 play. While Stanford's middling 6-6 start to the campaign is somewhat expected, UCLA can't feel good about its 6-7 mark - even if it did play well last weekend in Oregon. Of note, the Bruins have faced the 79th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season (according to KenPom) while Stanford has gone against the 107th toughest slate of opponents. I expect UCLA to use this as a springboard game before hosting another winnable game against Cal on Saturday. Take UCLA (8*). | |||||||
01-03-24 | Northern Iowa +2.5 v. Missouri State | 64-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Iowa plus the points over Missouri State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. The Panthers have been working their way toward the return of conference play since dropping their first two Missouri Valley Conference matchups back in late November-early December. Since suffering an outright loss as a favorite at Evansville on December 2nd Northern Iowa has gone 4-1 SU and ATS. I don't expect any sort of letdown here, however. It's a different story for Missouri State, which is off to an impressive start to the campaign and most recently upset perennial NCAA Tournament team St. Mary's (CA), on the road no less, just before Christmas. Note that the road team has gone 6-3 ATS in the last nine meetings in this particular series, including a 69-66 Panthers victory on this floor last February. Northern Iowa checks in a long-term 73-47 ATS when playing on the road off consecutive ATS victories and 36-15 ATS in its last 51 road contests following back-to-back wins by double-digits, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Missouri State is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games after winning two of its last three contests. Take Northern Iowa (8*). | |||||||
01-02-24 | Celtics v. Thunder +3 | Top | 123-127 | Win | 100 | 24 h 2 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Boston at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. It seems as though the Thunder still aren't being treated like an elite team in the betting marketplace. Here, they're installed as a home underdog against the Celtics, despite playing some of their best basketball of the season - a red hot 7-1 SU and ATS over their last eight games. While Oklahoma City is gaining a reputation for being an outstanding offensive team, and for good reason, I've been even more impressed by its defensive play. Note that the Thunder have allowed just three of their last seven opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. In stark contrast, the Celtics have allowed 40+ made field goals in seven straight and 13 of their last 14 contests. Both teams come in following an off day on Monday. The difference I see here is that Boston will be playing in its sixth different city since December 19th while Oklahoma City has only had to leave home for a single game (in Denver) over that same period. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are a long-term 95-126 ATS when coming off a double-digit road win, as is the case here. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
01-01-24 | Mavs v. Jazz +3.5 | 90-127 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah plus the points over Dallas at 9:10 pm et on Monday. Sometimes you have to ride the streaks and right now the Jazz are on a heater having reeled off five straight ATS victories. They'll look to avoid a fourth straight defeat at the hands of the Mavericks on Monday, noting that Dallas hasn't won four consecutive matchups in this season since 2013-15. The Mavs have been wildly inconsistent this season and I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown following Saturday's upset win over the Warriors in San Francisco. Note that they're just 18-35 ATS in their last 53 games following a win. Utah rallied for a 117-109 victory over the Heat at home on Saturday. The Jazz have gone an incredible 20-5 ATS in their last 25 games as a home underdog. They're also 8-1 ATS when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
12-31-23 | Magic +5.5 v. Suns | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Phoenix at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. The Suns have delivered back-to-back blowout wins over the fast-fading Rockets and Hornets. I look for them to come back to Earth as they host the Magic on Sunday. Orlando has shaken off a recent slump to deliver three wins in its last four games SU and four in its last five ATS. Note that the underdog has gone 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series. The Magic are 52-38 ATS in their last 90 games as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points. Meanwhile, the Suns are 15-28 ATS in their last 43 games off a double-digit home victory. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
12-30-23 | USC -8 v. Oregon State | 70-86 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on USC minus the points over Oregon State at 10 pm et on Saturday. It took about a half but USC did eventually wake up and start playing Trojans basketball against Oregon on Thursday. Unfortunately for them it was too little too late as they dropped an 82-74 decision. I look for the Trojans to bounce back on Saturday as they stay in the Pacific Northwest to take on Oregon State. The Beavers got off to a strong start against UCLA on Thursday but couldn't keep it up in the second half, allowing a whopping 45 points against the Bruins in the game's final 20 minutes on their way to a 69-62 loss. The loss snapped a five-game winning streak for Oregon State. Keep in mind, the Beavers hadn't really played all that tough of a schedule prior to the start of Pac-12 play, falling by margin in their only step-up games. I suspect it's going to take some time for Oregon State to settle into a rhythm and ultimately offer some line value here in Pac-12 play. Take USC (8*). | |||||||
12-29-23 | Bucks v. Cavs +5.5 | 119-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Cavaliers have gone through their ups and downs this season but have battled harder than most teams on their way to an 18-13 record. The needle is most definitely pointed up right now as they've gone 8-2-1 ATS over their last 11 games and draw a statement game at home against the Bucks on Friday. Milwaukee dismantled Brooklyn 144-122 two nights ago. We'll fade it off that win and cover as a double-digit favorite, however. Note that the Bucks are 13-26 ATS in their last 39 games after scoring 120 points or more in three straight games, as is the case here. They're also a long-term 96-102 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory. Meanwhile, the Cavs are 15-9 ATS in their last 24 games off an upset win, which is the situation here following Wednesday's victory in Dallas. They're also a long-term 51-42 ATS when coming off consecutive road wins. The home team has dominated this particular series lately, taking six straight meetings both SU and ATS. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
12-28-23 | USC v. Oregon -2.5 | Top | 74-82 | Win | 100 | 32 h 3 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon minus the points over USC at 9 pm et on Thursday. USC snapped a three-game losing streak with a 20-point rout of Alabama State last time out but it should find the going much tougher on Thursday as it opens Pac-12 play with a showdown against Oregon in Eugene. The Ducks rebounded from a 20-point beatdown at the hands of Syracuse by defeating Kent State 84-70 prior to the break. Oregon is now 4-1 SU and ATS over its last five contests. I like the Ducks chances of going off offensively in this one as USC's opponents have been stuffing the boxscores, knocking down 24 or more field goals in nine of 11 games to date. Oregon doesn't mind pushing the pace having hoisted up 60 or more field goal attempts in eight of its 11 contests so far this season. Take Oregon (10*). | |||||||
12-28-23 | Jazz v. Pelicans -8 | 105-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Utah at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans have dropped consecutive games but draw a favorable matchup to get back on track on Thursday against the Jazz. New Orleans recent losses haven't been for lack of trying. The Pelicans have still held eight straight opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. In stark contrast, the Jazz have allowed their last four opponents to knock down 45, 43, 44 and 45 field goals. Note that Utah is 15-29 ATS in its last 44 games after winning three of its last four contests, as is the case here, while New Orleans checks in 21-8 ATS in its last 29 home games after losing four of five of its last six games. The home team has reeled off four consecutive SU and ATS wins in this series. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
12-23-23 | Magic +1.5 v. Pacers | 117-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams are struggling right now with the Magic having lost four games in a row and the Pacers coming off five losses in their last six games. The Magic should bring confidence into this game knowing that they've already defeated Indiana by double-digits on this floor earlier this season while they've also held each of their last two opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. In fact, they've held four of their last six foes to 40 or fewer made field goals with only the Celtics (twice) breaking through that level. Everyone scores on Indiana with the Pacers having allowed at least 43 made field goals in 12 straight contests. Note that Orlando is 30-22 ATS in its last 52 games after losing three of its last four games ATS while Indiana has gone a long-term 58-82 ATS in its last 140 contests when seeking revenge for a double-digit home loss against an opponent. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
12-21-23 | Clippers v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 115-134 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Clippers here as they play the second of back-to-backs after reeling off consecutive wins to open their three-game road trip. In fact, they've won nine straight games overall and five in a row ATS. They played on consecutive nights only once over that stretch and that was at home against Sacramento. The Thunder have been home and cool since Monday, when they rolled to a 19-point win over the Grizzlies. They won't take the floor again until they host the Lakers on Saturday. You could argue that no team is healthier than the Thunder right now and only the Timberwolves own a better record in the Western Conference. The Clippers could understandably be caught looking ahead to a four-game homestand that will begin on Saturday against Boston and take them all the way into the New Year. Note that the home team has gone 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in this series. While we are being asked to lay a considerable number of points with Oklahoma City on this occasion, I believe the line is warranted. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
12-20-23 | Jackson State v. Gonzaga -26 | 76-100 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Jackson State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Gonzaga is coming off a disappointing double-digit loss against an elite Connecticut squad last time out. As the Bulldogs return to the court on Wednesday, I can't help but feel its opponent Jackson State is in the wrong place at the wrong time. Note that as of Tuesday, Jackson State ranks 255th out of 362 teams nationally according to KenPom. Gonzaga, despite the lopsided defeat against UConn, still checks in a respectable 18th. Note that the Bulldogs are 90-61 ATS in their last 151 games after losing four or five of their last six games ATS, as is the case here. Jackson State has faced an extremely tough schedule so far this season having yet to play a home game. It has faced the 41st most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom and while it has hung tough for the most part, I think it's in a tough spot here given Gonzaga can empty the tank knowing it won't take the floor again until December 29th. Take Gonzaga (8*). | |||||||
12-20-23 | Knicks v. Nets +1.5 | 121-102 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Nets didn't have a great road trip, going 1-4 SU and ATS including three straight defeats to close it out. I look for them to bounce back on Wednesday as they host the rival Knicks, who make the long trip from Los Angeles following a 1-1 split against the Clippers and Lakers. New York's defensive play has left a lot to be desired lately as it has allowed nine straight opponents to make good on at least 42 field goals. It's been a similar story for the Nets lately but now they're back home where they've held the opposition to an average of 40 made field goals per contest this season. In fact, only one of their last six foes here at home has managed to knock down more than 40 field goals. Home court certainly mattered in this series last season with the host winning all four meetings both SU and ATS. Note that the underdog is 6-4 ATS in the last 10 matchups between these two teams. Take Brooklyn (8*). | |||||||
12-20-23 | Wolves v. 76ers -3 | Top | 113-127 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Timberwolves used up a lot of what they had in the tank rallying for Monday's come-from-behind win in Miami - their third straight victory. I look for them to come up short on Wednesday as they stay on the road to face the 76ers. Philadelphia dropped a 108-104 decision against the Bulls on Monday, falling as a double-digit favorite. The 76ers are in a revenge spot here after losing 112-99 in Minnesota back in November. That's notable as they're an impressive 29-11 ATS in their last 40 games played when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent. They're also 34-19 ATS in their last 53 games as a home favorite. Meanwhile, Minnesota checks in 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after winning five or six of its last seven games ATS, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
12-16-23 | Portland +10.5 v. Grand Canyon | 63-91 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland plus the points over Grand Canyon at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. We‘ll simply fade Grand Canyon as it comes off consecutive outright underdog victories and now lays double-digits against Portland on Saturday. Note that the last time we saw the Antelopes favored they failed to cover the spread at home against Texas-Arlington. Portland is no pushover at 6-5 on the season and fresh off a ’get right’ road win over North Dakota. Take Portland (8*). | |||||||
12-15-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga +5.5 | Top | 76-63 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on Gonzaga plus the points over Connecticut at 10 pm et on Friday. Needless to say, Gonzaga has had this rematch circled on its calendar after falling by an 82-54 score against Connecticut last March. The Bulldogs get this game in their own backyard at Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle and with an upset loss against in-state rival Washington last Saturday fresh in their minds, I look for them to make a statement here. While Connecticut does rank an impressive fourth in the country according to KenPom, it has also faced only the 321st most difficult schedule (also according to KenPom). Gonzaga ranks 11th in the country, taking a hit following last week's defeat against Washington. Note that the Bulldogs have gone up against the 86th toughest slate of opponents this season. Gonzaga is an impressive 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games following a home win but non-cover, as is the case here. UConn on the other hand is just 30-34 ATS in its last 64 contests following a victory by 30 or more points, which is also the situation on Friday. Take Gonzaga (10*). | |||||||
12-15-23 | Magic +6 v. Celtics | 111-128 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. In an odd scheduling quirk, the Magic enter this tilt in Boston well-rested following three off days (they last played on Monday at home against Cleveland). The Celtics have played twice since then, including last night as they were forced to use up much of what they had in the tank holding off a late push from the Cavaliers. This certainly isn't a favorable matchup at the best of times for Boston as Orlando has won each of the last four meetings, including two straight matchups here in Beantown. Note that the Celtics are 0-11 ATS in their last 11 home games when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent, as is the case here after they dropped a 113-96 decision in Orlando on November 24th. Meanwhile, the Magic are 31-16 ATS in their last 47 games when priced as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, as is the case here. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
12-14-23 | Wolves +2.5 v. Mavs | 119-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
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12-13-23 | Nets +2.5 v. Suns | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Nets didn't get this road trip off to the start they had hoped for, dropping a 13-point decision in Sacramento on Sunday. I look for them to get back on track on Wednesday, however, as they have a major rest advantage against a Suns squad that looked like it used everything it had in the tank in last night's thrilling win over the Warriors. Brooklyn has quietly been one of the best bets in the league this season, going 16-5-1 ATS. Few have paid much attention but the Nets check in sporting a winning record with Sunday's defeat in Sacramento marking just their second loss in their last eight contests. Note that the Nets are a long-term 70-39 ATS against Pacific Division opponents and 8-1 ATS when coming off a loss this season. Take Brooklyn (8*). | |||||||
12-13-23 | Pacers v. Bucks -6 | Top | 126-140 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks have obviously had this game circled since dropping an ugly one against the Pacers in the in-season tournament semi-final round last week. In fact, Indiana has taken both previous matchups between these two teams this season. Neither of those games were played in Milwaukee, however. The Bucks are 11-1 at home this season while the Pacers have given up just shy of 132 points per game on the road. Note that the Bucks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games as a favorite of six points or less. Meanwhile, Indiana is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games following a victory over a division opponent, as is the case here. Milwaukee is a long-term 27-20 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite and 24-19 ATS in its last 43 games following consecutive ATS defeats, which is also the situation here. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
12-12-23 | Nuggets v. Bulls +7.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Bulls have quietly reeled off five straight ATS victories, including last night's near-miss in a four-point overtime loss in Milwaukee. Yes, Chicago is missing some key contributors, including Zach LaVine but others like Demar Derozan and Coby White have more than picked up the slack. This isn't a team that is going to get blown out often as it has held an incredible 20 of its last 21 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While the Nuggets are an excellent defensive team in their own right, they've yielded more than 44 made field goals twice in their last six games alone. Denver did deliver a win and cover in Atlanta last night but that only served to snap a three-game SU and ATS losing streak. Note that the Nuggets are long-term losers playing the second of back-to-back nights having gone 210-258 ATS going all the way back to 1996. Denver did take the first meeting between these two teams by a 123-101 score in the Mile High City back in November. It hasn't won consecutive matchups with the Bulls since 2021, going 2-3 SU in the last five meetings. Prior to a 126-103 win in Chicago last November, Denver hadn't won a game at the United Center by more than six points since 2018. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
12-12-23 | Tenn-Martin v. NC State -19.5 | 67-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Tennessee-Martin at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Wolfpack have righted the ship with back-to-back wins (and covers) against Boston College and Maryland-Eastern Shore following a three-game ATS slide in late November. I look for the Wolfpack to continue their ascension leading up to a big showdown with Tennessee on Saturday. N.C. State has climbed to 70th in the KenPom national rankings on the strength of consecutive strong offensive showings. I expect the Wolfpack to lay waste to one of the worst defensive teams in the country on Tuesday, noting Tennessee-Martin ranks 321st in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Note that Tennessee-Martin is a long-term 44-73 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 points or more, as is the case here. Take N.C. State (8*). | |||||||
12-11-23 | Cavs v. Magic -2 | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We'll fade the Cavaliers off Friday's road win over the Heat. Orlando is off to a terrific 15-7 start this season but just snapped a two-game skid with Friday's rout of the lowly Pistons. This is a quick revenge spot for the Magic after they suffered a 10-point loss in Cleveland last week. The Cavs are fresh off consecutive ATS wins but it's worth noting that marks their longest ATS winning streak this season. They're 0-2 ATS following back-to-back ATS wins this season, missing covers by 32 and 20 points in those two contests. Note that Orlando is 32-20 ATS in its last 52 home games. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
12-10-23 | Michigan +4 v. Iowa | 90-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan plus the points over Iowa at 4:30 pm et on Sunday. The Wolverines are stacking up losses right now, fresh off three straight defeats including a stunner at home against Big Ten rival Indiana earlier this week. It's been a similar story for Iowa as it has dropped consecutive games and checks in 1-5 ATS over its last six contests. The difference is, while the Wolverines have at least been competitive in all but one of their five losses this season, the Hawkeyes have had their doors blown off on three occasions, including in each of their last two contests against Purdue and rival Iowa State. Iowa has won consecutive meetings in this series but hasn't delivered three straight victories over Michigan since reeling off five consecutive wins over the Wolverines from 2014 to 2017. Note that Michigan is 29-15 ATS in its last 44 road games after losing five or six of its last seven contests, as is the case here. Take Michigan (8*). | |||||||
12-09-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The underdog has gone an incredible 8-0-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series and I believe the Pacers are well-positioned to keep that run going on Saturday. The Lakers impressed in the semi-final round two nights ago, blasting New Orleans by a whopping 44 points. Indiana might have been even more impressive, dominating the Bucks in a 128-119 victory. The Lakers have now held three straight opponents to 37 or fewer made field goals but I think there's a good chance the Pacers overwhelm them with their offense here, noting that Indiana has knocked down 42 or more field goals in an incredible 17 straight games. The Lakers have reached that number of higher just twice in their last six games. Note that Los Angeles is a long-term 37-57 ATS when coming off an ATS victory and a woeful 5-15 ATS in its last 20 contests after winning four of its last five games ATS, as is the case here. Take Indiana (8*). | |||||||
12-09-23 | Indiana v. Auburn -6 | 76-104 | Win | 100 | 17 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Auburn minus the points over Indiana at 2 pm et on Saturday. Indiana picked up a massive win on the road against Michigan last time out. I expect the Hoosiers to fall flat on Saturday, however, as they stay on the road to face SEC foe Auburn. The Tigers will be in a foul mood after dropping a 69-64 decision as 7.5-point favorites on the road against Appalachian State on Sunday. Prior to that, Auburn had reeled off five straight victories, including three ATS wins in its last four games. Indiana has delivered three consecutive ATS wins following an 0-4-1 ATS start. Note that this is only the third time this season the Hoosiers have been in an underdog role. I don't expect them to catch Auburn flat-footed the way they did against Michigan. Note that Indiana is a long-term 60-92 ATS in its last 152 road games following consecutive ATS victories. Take Auburn (8*). | |||||||
12-08-23 | Kings -1.5 v. Suns | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Kings have an extra day of rest advantage here after they bowed out of the in-season tournament with a disappointing home loss against the Pelicans on Monday. They've now lost four of their last seven games but I like their chances of bouncing back against the Suns on Friday. Phoenix is 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS over its last four contests. Bradley Beal has yet to make much of a contribution at all due to injury while Kevin Durant is now sidelined as well. Durant's absence has obviously been factored into the line but as a whole, the Suns have struggled offensively, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in four straight games. Note that the Kings are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games following a home defeat and have proven to be road warriors, going 35-19 ATS in their last 54 contests away from home. The Suns are 23-28 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog and 2-6 ATS in their last eight contests as a home underdog of six points or less. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
12-08-23 | Cavs -0.5 v. Heat | 111-99 | Win | 100 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. Just a simple fade of the Heat off their 'upset' win in Toronto on Wednesday. Miami hasn't exactly been blowing the opposition off the floor at home this season, going 5-3 in South Beach but an even 119.2 points apiece in terms of scoring average. Note that the Heat are just 27-40 ATS in their last 67 games following a SU win and 19-34 ATS in their last 53 contests coming off an ATS victory. The Cavaliers got off to a slow start this season but have since gone 8-3 over their last 11 games including an impressive double-digit victory over the upstart Magic on Wednesday. Letdowns haven't really been a problem for the Cavs as they're 35-23 ATS in their last 58 games following a double-digit victory. Also note that Cleveland will be seeking revenge for a 33-point home loss against Miami suffered back in November. Note that the Cavs have gone a perfect 2-0 ATS the only two times they've been in a similar revenge spot over the last two seasons. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
12-08-23 | Knicks +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 123-133 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Knicks have played just once since last Friday as they got drilled by the Bucks in the quarter-final round of the in-season tournament on Monday. Milwaukee simply couldn't miss in that game, shooting a blistering 60% from the field. I'm confident we'll see the scrappy Knicks respond in this divisional road contest on Friday. They're set up well having gone a long-term 71-44 ATS when coming off a game in which the opposition shot 55% or better from the field. This is a revenge spot for the Knicks as well after they suffered a lopsided 16-point defeat in Boston back in November. Note that New York checks in 6-5 on the road this season where it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 0.3 points. Boston has dropped the cash in consecutive games and is just 2-7 ATS over its last nine contests. It's difficult to cover these lofty spreads when you're playing as loose as the Celtics are defensively. They've allowed 90 or more field goal attempts in six of their last eight games. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
12-07-23 | Pelicans v. Lakers -1.5 | 89-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over New Orleans at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers aren't likely to be competing for the Larry O'Brien Trophy in June but they do have a good chance to take the inaugural in-season tournament title in Las Vegas. Los Angeles checks in 10-4 over its last 14 games but did survive a comeback scare against the Suns in the quarter-final round. New Orleans on the other hand got an incredible performance from Brandon Ingram to surge past the Kings two nights ago. The Pelicans have been shooting the lights out but are playing with a rather slim margin for error in my opinion as they've gotten off 88, 78, 85, 82 and 87 field goal attempts over their last five contests. The Lakers can play some defense having held three of their last four and five of their last eight foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. Note that New Orleans is 9-25 ATS in its last 34 games played away from home following a double-digit upset win, as is the case here. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
12-06-23 | Pittsburgh -3.5 v. West Virginia | 80-63 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Pitt should be fuming off consecutive home losses against Missouri and Clemson. While those were two tough games, you have to imagine the Panthers figured they could at least earn a split (or better). That wasn't the case so now they hit the road looking to get back on track against West Virginia on Wednesday. The Mountaineers are in a bit of a reset year with no returning starters from last year's team. It's a much different story for Pitt, which has been slowly rebuilding under head coach Jeff Capel and last season went 24-12, eventually bowing out as an 11-seed in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia is off to a 3-4 start in the first year of the post-Bob Huggins era under the guidance of new head coach Josh Eilert. After eking out a win over Bellarmine (by four points), the Mountaineers fell by six against St. John's last time out as their four-game homestand continued. This is a matchup the Panthers have likely had circled after dropping an ugly 81-56 decision at home against West Virginia last season. The Mountaineers were road favorites in that game but the shoe is on the other foot this time around and I expect to see a different result. Take Pittsburgh (8*). | |||||||
12-06-23 | 76ers -9.5 v. Wizards | 131-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. The 76ers are coming off consecutive losses but essentially played with their 'B' squad last time out against Boston (and still managed to cover the spread). Here, we should see Philadelphia back at full strength (or close to it) following a four-day layoff. To say Wizards opponents have been stuffing the boxscore would be an understatement. They've allowed 43 or more made field goals in 10 straight games with three opponents knocking down more than 50 field goals over that stretch. I worry about their offense in this particular spot against an elite 76ers defense (and a rested one at that). Note that Washington scored 120 or more points in each of its last three games but all of those came on the road. Interestingly, the Wiz have averaged just 112.9 points per game at home this season, nearly four points per game below their season scoring average. Philadelphia has held its last three opponents to 83 or fewer field goal attempts with only one of those foes managing to break 40 made field goals. On the road this season, the Sixers have employed a smothering defense, yielding just 40-of-85 shooting on average. Even in a game where Philadelphia didn't bring the proper level of defensive intensity against the Wizards back on November 6th (it allowed Washington to make good on 49-of-96 field goal attempts) it will won by 18 points. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
12-05-23 | Indiana v. Michigan -7 | Top | 78-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Indiana at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Indiana is probably feeling pretty good about itself following three straight wins, including an impressive double-digit win and cover at home against Maryland last Friday. I think the Hoosiers will get caught in a letdown on Tuesday, however, as they run into a Michigan squad desperate for a win off back-to-back losses against Texas Tech and Oregon. While the Wolverines are 1-4 over their last five games, only the loss to Long Beach State (a good team in its own right) was truly disappointing. The other four games over that stretch all saw closing lines of fewer than three points - in other words, they all could have gone either way. Looking at the positives, Michigan did score a whopping 83 points on the road against a good Oregon team last time out. KenPom still has the Wolverines ranked 20 spots higher than the Hoosiers at 49th in the country. With a tough road game against Iowa on deck, this is the spot for the Wolverines to turn it around. Note that Indiana is just 6-15 ATS in its last 21 lined road games and a long-term 41-66 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories, as is the case here. Michigan, meanwhile, is a long-term 55-35 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less, which is also the situation here. Take Michigan (10*). | |||||||
12-05-23 | George Mason v. Tennessee -15 | 66-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee minus the points over George Mason at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. George Mason is a good team but it is simply in the wrong place at the wrong time in Knoxville on Tuesday. The Volunteers are coming off three straight losses including a disappointing 100-92 defeat on the road against North Carolina last Wednesday. Having had nearly a week off to stew on that poor performance, I look for a massive response from the Vols here. Remember, Tennessee was a perfect 4-0 at one point with quality wins over Wisconsin and Syracuse and a near-miss against Purdue. George Mason hasn't really played anyone yet and will be taking a big step up in class following Saturday's win on the road against Toledo. Note that Tennessee is a long-term 95-69 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS defeats, as is the case here. Take Tennessee (8*). | |||||||
12-04-23 | Pelicans v. Kings -4 | 127-117 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over New Orleans at 10 pm et on Monday. New Orleans has lost three straight games, both SU and ATS, on the road and is a miserable 1-6 in its last seven contests away from home. The Kings should relish the opportunity to face the Pelicans here in the in-season tournament quarter-final round as it gives them a shot at revenge after dropping a pair of games in New Orleans earlier in the campaign. Sacramento is a different team now, healthy and able to hang with the league's elite, as we saw on Saturday against Denver. Noting that the Kings are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games after losing four or five of their last six games ATS, as is the case here, we'll confidently back them tonight. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
12-03-23 | Clemson v. Pittsburgh -1 | Top | 79-70 | Loss | -112 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Clemson at 2 pm et on Sunday. Clemson is ripe for a letdown on Sunday following its big upset win on the road against Alabama back on Tuesday. The Tigers took advantage of a struggling Crimson Tide defense in that contest but shouldn't be so fortunate on Sunday as they stay on the road to face a Pitt defense that ranks 46th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Panthers offense was a no-show against Missouri last time out, perhaps dealing with a letdown of their own following a blowout win over Oregon State. I'm confident we'll see Pitt bounce back here. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
12-02-23 | Rockets v. Lakers -5 | 97-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Houston at 10:40 pm et on Saturday. I like the Lakers to bounce back following Thursday's no-show in Oklahoma City. The Rockets had the wind taken out of their sails in a double-digit loss in Denver on Wednesday. Houston is now an even 8-8 on the season following consecutive losses to open this road trip. Note that the Rockets are now 14-27 ATS in their last 41 games as a road underdog, outscored by an average margin of 12.2 points in that situation. I believe there's still considerable regression in order for Houston as it is off to a better start to the season than most anticipated. The Lakers have been a mixed bag, but playing at home with rest and with a difficult matchup against the Suns on deck, I look for them to prevail here. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
12-02-23 | USC v. Gonzaga -3.5 | 76-89 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over USC at 10 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this spot sets up for Gonzaga as it looks to show out in front of the Vegas crowd against USC on Saturday. The Bulldogs have actually dropped the cash in consecutive games but I like the bounce-back spot in that regard here. USC hasn't been anything special this season, splitting its step-up games against Kansas State and Oklahoma. Gonzaga is a true national title contender once again this season in my opinion but I don't think we've seen its best effort just yet. Note that the Bulldogs are 8-1 when coming off a home game in which they won SU but failed to cover ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 25.7 points in that situation. Take Gonzaga (8*). | |||||||
12-02-23 | Washington +4.5 v. Colorado State | 81-86 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Colorado State at 7 pm et on Saturday. It would be difficult for the Washington basketball team not to gain some inspiration from the Huskies football team, which won the final Pac-12 Championship with a thrilling upset victory over Oregon, right here in Las Vegas, last night. On Saturday, the Huskies will look to stage an upset of their own on the hardwood as they take on undefeated Colorado State in this neutral court affair. I like Washington's chances of overwhelming the Rams with its up-tempo style, currently ranked 43rd in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. The Huskies have plenty of room to grow as they currently sit 58th in the nation in terms of KenPom's overall rankings. Colorado State, off to a perfect start to the campaign as I mentioned, is likely in line for some regression, currently ranked a lofty 22nd in the country, also according to KenPom. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
12-01-23 | Knicks +1.5 v. Raptors | 119-106 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Toronto at 7:40 pm et on Friday. We're able to back the Knicks at a discount here thanks to them playing last night at home against Detroit. The trip to Toronto is anything but gruelling and I won't hesitate to fade the Raptors off Wednesday's win over the Suns. Toronto has strung together three straight home victories after starting the campaign with four losses in its first four games at Scotiabank Arena. Still, the Raptors are a losing team on the season at 9-10 and they'll be in tough here as they look for a third straight win over the Knicks for the first time since 2021-22. New York is a long-term winner on the road at 35-20 ATS in its last 55 contests in enemy territory. After this game the Knicks will have three days off before wrapping up this two-game road trip with a difficult game in Milwaukee. Look for New York to 'empty the tank' on Friday. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
11-30-23 | Clippers v. Warriors -5 | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. Last night in Sacramento, the Clippers laid waste to the same Kings that just defeated the Warriors two nights ago. I expect the shoe to be on the other foot on Thursday as Golden State has the rest advantage. The Warriors are just 3-6 at home this season but I would certainly anticipate them turning that record around sooner rather than later. Note that despite last night's win, the Clippers remain just 3-6 on the road. Golden State is 21-8 in its last 29 home games after losing three of its last four contests ATS, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.6 points on average in that situation. The Warriors are also 27-14 ATS in their last 41 home games when listed as a favorite of six points or less. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
11-29-23 | Boston College +2 v. Vanderbilt | 80-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston College plus the points over Vanderbilt at 9:15 pm et on Wednesday. This line doesn't add up as Boston College heads out on the road to face Vanderbilt on Wednesday. The Eagles have actually faced the considerably more difficult schedule to this point this season - 157th toughest in the nation according to KenPom compared to Vandy's 298th ranking in that department. Yet Boston College has knocked down five more field goals per game (on the same number of additional field goal attempts) while holding the opposition to one less made field goal on one fewer attempt per contest. Take Boston College (8*). | |||||||
11-29-23 | Jazz v. Grizzlies -4 | 91-105 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Utah at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are mired in an incredible shooting slump, knocking down 37 or fewer field goals in each of their last four games - all losses (1-3 ATS). Of course, they've also faced a tough schedule over that stretch, going up against the Celtics, Rockets (who are much improved defensively), Suns and Timberwolves. The good news is, the Jazz will come knocking on Wednesday and Utah has been one of the league's worst defensive teams this season. The Jazz check in having allowed five of their last six opponents to make good on 44 or more field goals. On the flip side, Utah has connected on 38 or fewer field goals itself in four consecutive games. This is a double-revenge spot for the Grizzlies after the Jazz took each of the first two meetings this season. Also note that this is a critical spot for Memphis to bag a victory as it will head out on the road for a difficult back-to-back set in Dallas and Phoenix next. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
11-29-23 | Bradley -3.5 v. Murray State | 72-79 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Bradley minus the points over Murray State at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I like Bradley as it heads out on the Missouri Valley Conference road to face Murray State on Wednesday. The Braves have faced the considerably tougher schedule this season according to KenPom - 122nd most difficult in the nation according to KenPom. In stark contrast, the Racers have faced just the 259th toughest slate of opponents. In spite of that, Bradley has connected on just two fewer field goals per game on five fewer field goal attempts while holding opponents to five fewer made field goals on the same number of field goal attempts allowed. Take Bradley (8*). | |||||||
11-29-23 | Tennessee +2.5 v. North Carolina | 92-100 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over North Carolina at 7:15 pm et on Wednesday. It's early in the season but this is a big spot for the Volunteers as they check in off consecutive losses against Purdue and Kansas in Hawaii. Tennessee has had a full week off to stew on that most recent defeat at the hands of the Jayhawks and I like the way the Vols match up against the Tar Heels on Wednesday. North Carolina has pushed the pace and shot reasonably well, knocking down 28 or more field goals in five of six games so far this season. Here, they'll run into the nation's top-ranked team in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency in Tennessee. While the Vols have gone up against the 15th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season, the Tar Heels have faced the 127th. Take Tennessee (8*). | |||||||
11-29-23 | American v. Harvard -8.5 | 75-80 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Harvard minus the points over American at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I think we have a blowout on our hands here as Harvard hosts American U on Wednesday. American has faced only the 330th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season according to KenPom. Compare that with Harvard, which has gone up against the 87th toughest slate of opponents. Despite that, the Crimson have averaged two more made field goals on the same number of field goal attempts per game. On seven fewer three-point attempts per contest the Crimson have knocked down just two fewer three-point field goals. Defensively, Harvard has yielded two fewer made field goals per game on seven more field goal attempts per contest. The Crimson roll on Wednesday. Take Harvard (8*). | |||||||
11-29-23 | Gardner-Webb -1.5 v. Queens NC | 80-83 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Gardner-Webb minus the points over Queens at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Gardner-Webb has quietly faced the 11th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Queens has gone up against the 208th toughest slate of opponents. With that said, both teams check in sporting identical 3-4 records. All records aren't created equal though. Gardner-Webb has made good on two more field goals on one fewer field goal attempt per game than Queens while holding the opposition to seven fewer made field goals per contest. Queens has yielded those seven additional made field goals per game on only eight additional field goal attempts. Take Gardner-Webb (8*). | |||||||
11-29-23 | Buffalo v. James Madison -21 | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on James Madison minus the points over Buffalo at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This game has rout written all over it as James Madison hosts Buffalo on Wednesday. The Bulls have faced just the 258th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom yet they've gone a miserable 1-5 through six games. Meanwhile, James Madison has gone up against the 118th toughest slate of opponents and check in a perfect 6-0. The Dukes are averaging a whopping nine more made field goals per game compared to the Bulls, on just 11 additional field goal attempts per contest. Defensively, JMU has allowed four fewer made field goals per game on two additional attmepts. Take James Madison (8*). | |||||||
11-29-23 | VMI +4.5 v. Navy | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Month. My selection is on VMI plus the points over Navy at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the underdog Keydets as they face Navy on Wednesday. VMI checks in just 2-5 on the season but it has faced a fairly difficult schedule - the 110th toughest in the nation according to KenPom. Navy is 0-4 yet has faced only the 250th most difficult schedule by the same metrics. Note that the Keydets are averaging a whopping 10 more made field goals per game than the Midshipmen, despite getting off just six additional field goal attempts. From three-point range, VMI is knocking down two more shots while attempting just one more than Navy. It's a similar story defensively. VMI has held opponents to just 25 made field goals per game - just one more than Navy despite allowing nine additional field goal attempts per contest. VMI took this matchup by eight points as an 11-point home favorite last season. That 'revenge' angle is a big reason why Navy is installed as a considerable favorite at home on Wednesday. I believe the Midshipmen are laying too many points. Take VMI (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |