Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-26-21 | Nets -5.5 v. Pistons | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We've made a habit of fading the Nets over the last week or so, cashing tickets against them with the underdog Magic last Friday night and the favored Jazz in what turned out to be a monster blowout on Wednesday. Here, I'll switch gears and back the Nets as they stay on the road to face the Pistons in Detroit on Friday. Brooklyn obviously has injury concerns but I would expect it to have James Harden back on the floor for Friday's game. According to head coach Steve Nash it sounded like Harden could have played on Wednesday in Utah but the team essentially treated that as a throw-away game on the second of back-to-back nights off a win in Portland on Tuesday. The Pistons check in off an ATS win in Indiana on Wednesday but that sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 17-31 ATS off an ATS victory over the last two seasons, outscored by 6.5 points per game in that situation. Having dropped their last meeting with the Nets after staging an upset in their first matchup, I'll point out that they're 26-41 ATS when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.2 points in those contests. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
03-24-21 | Nets v. Jazz -8.5 | 88-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Brooklyn at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. A lot of bettors got burned by the Nets last night, electing to fade them missing two of the big three against the Blazers in Portland. James Harden rose the occasion and Brooklyn pulled off the outright underdog win in that one. Now those same bettors might be quick to switch gears and back the Nets catching a generous helping of points in Utah tonight, especially with the Jazz returning home off a long road trip. I think that's the wrong move. Note that Brooklyn will be playing its fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities and three different time zones. That's not to mention the fact that it is without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving while James Harden plays with a nagging neck injury (after being on the floor for 39 minutes last night). Utah has of course been one of the league's best bets this season, going 13-4 ATS as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by 13.6 points per game on average. I like the way the Jazz are set up here, noting that they've allowed just 100.6 points per game and outscored the opposition by 12 points per game after winning their previous contest by 20 points or more over the last three seasons. That's the case here after Utah closed out its road trip with a 25-point blowout win in Chicago on Monday. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
03-22-21 | Abilene Christian +5 v. UCLA | Top | 47-67 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
CBB East Region Game of the Year. My selection is on Abilene Christian plus the points over UCLA at 5:15 pm et on Monday. I'll grab the points with Abilene Christian as it continue on a Cinderella run here in the NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats shot a miserable sub-30% from the field in their opener against Texas but still managed to stage the upset thanks to an incredible defensive effort. That shouldn't have come as a big surprise as Abilene Christian has terrific at that end of the floor all season, entering the tournament ranked sixth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 13th in opponents effective field goal percentage. That's not to mention the fact that the Wildcats are capable of ratcheting up the pressure, ranking third in the country in steals per possession. I'm not overly concerned by their awful shooting performance against Texas. Keep in mind, ACU entered the tourney ranked a respectable 67th in offensive efficiency and 55th in floor percentage, not to mention sixth in the country in extra scoring chances per game. I feel their up-tempo style could give UCLA some problems here, noting that ACU ranks 97th in possessions per game compared to the Bruins', who entered the tourney 288th. UCLA rode the hot hand of Johnny Juzang in its 'upset' win over BYU in the opening round. Juzang had been dealing with injuries and I do question what happens if he doesn't shoot the lights out again here. While ACU has had some issues taking care of the basketball this season, UCLA is unlikely to take advantage, ranking 299th in the country in steals per possession and 214th in block percentage entering this tourney. The Bruins have really been nothing special defensively either, ranking 156th in opponents floor percentage and 201st in opponents effective field goal percentage. Finally, I'll point to the fact that UCLA has gone just 3-11 ATS away from home after winning two of its last three games over the last three seasons, outscored by a whopping 11 points per game in that situation. Take Abilene Christian (10*). | |||||||
03-21-21 | Oregon State +6 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 80-70 | Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Oklahoma State at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. Oklahoma State held on for the cover against Liberty in its NCAA Tournament opener on Friday but I expect the Cowboys will be in for a tough challenge against red hot Oregon State on Sunday. The Beavers got hot at exactly the right time, improbably winning the Pac-12 Tournament last week before dominating a good Tennessee team in their opening round matchup on Friday. I like the matchup here as well. Oklahoma State has outscored the opposition by just 1.8 points per game after winning four of its last five games this season. In 14 situations where it has won five or six of its last seven games this season it has outscored opponents by just 0.5 points per game. While Oregon State is considered an upstart, it has actually posted a winning record away from home this season, allowing just 66.7 points per game. Albeit against a tougher schedule, Oklahoma State has allowed 72.9 ppg away from home this season. Note that entering this tournament, the Cowboys ranked just 135th in the nation in offensive efficiency and 79th in floor percentage while also ranking 270th in extra scoring chances per game. By contrast, Oregon State entered the tourney ranked 88th in extra scoring chances per game. Take Oregon State (10*). | |||||||
03-21-21 | Bulls -3 v. Pistons | Top | 100-86 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is a fine bounce-back spot for the Nuggets after suffering consecutive losses against the Spurs and Nuggets. Both of those losses could have gone either way and there's certainly no reason for Chicago to hang its head following a four-point setback in Denver. Somewhat surprisingly, the Bulls are actually a better team on the road than at home this season, posting a 9-8 record and outscoring the opposition by 2.6 points per game. Note that Chicago is a stellar 14-2 ATS on the road after posting three wins in its last four games ATS over the last three seasons. As we've noted before, the Pistons are not a good revenge team, having gone 25-40 ATS revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 3-13 ATS after posting consecutive ATS wins, as is the case here, outscored by 9.3 ppg in that spot. It's certainly worth mentioning that Detroit's last two wins came against a reeling Raptors squad and a dreadful Houston team. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
03-21-21 | Magic +8.5 v. Celtics | 96-112 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Boston at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. The Magic have now won three straight and five of their last seven games ATS following a three-game ATS losing skid where many had left them for dead. We won with them in Friday's outright underdog win over the Nets and I won't hesitate to go back to the well here. Orlando has been a streaky team from an ATS perspective, having gone 19-5 ATS after winning four of its last five games ATS over the last three seasons, actually outscoring the opposition by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Boston has lost three consecutive games both SU and ATS and while most see this as a terrific bounce-back spot, I just think the Celtics might have a tough time getting fully focused on the Magic in a sleepy Sunday afternoon spot before heading out on the road for four games. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | Hornets +9.5 v. Clippers | 98-125 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. This road trip hasn't gone as planned for the Hornets as they've dropped consecutive games by double-digit margins in Denver and here in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). I like the way they're set up to at least keep things competitive against the Clippers on Saturday, however. Note that Charlotte has gone 37-19 ATS off at least two losses in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by just 1.0 point per game in that situation. They're also an impressive 21-8 ATS after giving up 105+ points in three straight games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 0.7 points per game in that spot. As for the Clippers, they've outscored opponents by an average margin of just 5.9 points when returning home off a road game over the last three seasons. There's no reason for the Hornets to hang their heads here as they still have three games left on this road trip to turn things around. Meanwhile, I'm not sure how easy it will be for the Clips to get up for this two-game homestand against Eastern Conference opponents. Take Charlotte (10*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | Spurs v. Bucks -9.5 | Top | 113-120 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Spurs guaranteed themselves a winning road trip with last night's 116-110 win in Cleveland. I can certainly see a scenario unfolding where they have a tough time keeping within arm's reach against a much better rested Bucks squad here on Saturday. For San Antonio, this will be its fifth game in the last seven nights (in five different cities). In fact, it will be the Spurs seventh game in seven different cities since the All-Star break. Meanwhile, the Bucks are home off two days' rest and this will mark just their fourth game in the last eight days and only their fifth since the All-Star break (in only three different cities). Note that Milwaukee has gone 28-15 ATS returning home following an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 14.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Spurs have been outscored by 7.2 points per game on average as a road underdog over the last three seasons, and this is by no means a favorable situation (for the reasons noted above). Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25 | Top | 66-82 | Loss | -114 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Texas Southern at 3 pm et on Saturday. I expect to see Michigan lay waste to Texas Southern on Saturday afternoon. Of course, credit the Tigers for advancing past Mount St. Mary's in come-from-behind fashion in their First Four matchup on Thursday, but they're likely to get drummed in this one. Note that Texas Southern ranks just 209th in the nation in offensive efficiency and a miserable 277th in turnovers per possession. While we didn't see it on Thursday, the Tigers generally look to push the pace but that will likely backfire against the Wolverines here. Michigan of course has a sour taste in its mouth after failing to reach the final in the Big Ten Tournament last weekend. The Wolverines check into this game ranked 17th in offensive efficiency, 21st in floor percentage, 24th in total rebounding percentage, eighth in opponents effective field goal percentage and third in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage - you get the picture. Texas Southern regularly got torched during its non-conference schedule, allowing 80+ points against Oklahoma State, St. Mary's-CA, Auburn and BYU. Here, unless the Wolverines completely look past the Tigers, they should be able to approach 90 while I don't see Texas Southern finding an easy path to 60. Take Michigan (10*). | |||||||
03-20-21 | St Bonaventure +1.5 v. LSU | 61-76 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Bonaventure plus the points over LSU at 1:45 pm et on Saturday. LSU enjoyed a tremendous run in the SEC Tournament, reaching the final before falling by a single point against Alabama. The Tigers were largely inconsistent away from their home floor over the course of the season, however, going 7-7 SU and ATS while allowing north of 78 points per game. St. Bonaventure is an experienced team built for postseason success and we certainly saw that play out in the Atlantic-10 Tournament as the Bonnies defeated VCU to bring home the championship. I'm confident in the Bonnies ability to run their offense in this matchup, noting that LSU ranks 199th in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 226th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage this season. The Tigers also rank a miserable 258th in block percentage. Meanwhile, St. Bonaventure ranks ninth in opponents floor percentage and 54th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. The Bonnies also check in a very respectable 60th in extra scoring chances per game - by contrast, LSU is 154th in that department. As we saw in the SEC Tournament, the Tigers thrive in an up-tempo environment but I don't think the Bonnies will be interested in trading baskets on Saturday. Note that St. Bonaventure ranks 329th in the country in possessions per game and I'm confident it can use that slow pace to its advantage here. Take St. Bonaventure (10*). | |||||||
03-19-21 | Winthrop +7 v. Villanova | Top | 63-73 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
CBB First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Winthrop plus the points over Villanova at 9:55 pm et on Friday. While Villanova is just two tournaments removed from a National Championship and head coach Jay Wright is deserving of all the respect he receives for putting together a title contender year in and year out, I believe this is a tough opening round matchup for the Wildcats against a Winthrop squad that 'checks all the boxes' as a potential Cinderella team here in March. We've seen some cracks in Villanova's armor down the stretch while Winthrop has just one blemish on its otherwise flawless resume, albeit against inferior opposition to what the Wildcats face on a game-to-game basis in the Big East. I'm not going to knock the Eagles for playing a lighter schedule though - what they've accomplished is certainly deserving of plenty of respect. Winthrop checks in ranked 7th in the nation in total rebounding percentage compared to Villanova's 116th. I really like the fact that the Eagles will be facing a Wildcats defense that hasn't proven to be all that active at its own end of the floor. Note that 'Nova ranks a miserable 343rd in the country in block percentage and 260th in steals per possession. Contrast that with Winthrop, which checks in 59th in steals per possession, while only slightly better in terms of block percentage at 264th. Defensively, Winthrop has been terrific, ranking 18th in opponents floor percentage, top-100 in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage and a respectable 127th in opponents effective field goal percentage. In order to stay inside the number tonight, taking advantage of any and all extra opportunities will be key and the Eagles check in top-five in the nation in extra scoring chances per game and also succeed at pushing the pace, ranking 48th in possessions per game. By contrast, 'Nova ranks 296th in possessions per game. The knock on the Eagles is their inability to knock down their free throws but we did see some improvement from them in that regard down the stretch, as they shot better than 74% from the free throw line in their last three games while the Wildcats saw some regression, knocking down just 66% of their free throw attempts over their last three contests. Maybe the Eagles freeze in the moment and Villanova's championship pedigree leads it to victory here, but I believe Winthrop has all the tools to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Winthrop (10*). | |||||||
03-19-21 | Nets v. Magic +10.5 | Top | 113-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Magic haven't won a game since February 21st and are in what appears to be a tough spot here playing the second of back-to-back nights off a tough loss in New York on Thursday. With that being said, I believe they're being given too many points here. The Nets have won six games in a row, including a come-from-behind victory in Indiana (without Kyrie Irving) two nights ago. I do question how easy it will be for the Nets to get up for this one against the slumping Magic, however. The Magic have played hard off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 1.9 points per game in that situation, as is the case here. The Nets are outscoring opponents by just 5.2 points per game as a road favorite this season, well south of the spread we're dealing with tonight. Orlando has been getting healthier lately and we've seen signs of progress as it has gone 4-2 ATS over its last six games. I expect the Magic to use last night's close loss as a confidence-builder rather than a reason to be down on themselves here. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
03-19-21 | Spurs v. Cavs +4.5 | 116-110 | Loss | -103 | 9 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland plus the points over San Antonio at 7:40 pm et on Friday. Even without Demar Derozan, the Spurs have turned things around with consecutive wins over the Pistons and Bulls this week. I expect them to have a tough time staying up for this date with the lowly Cavs on Friday, however, with Derozan likely to miss once again. The Cavs finally won a game last time out with their young core showing up and showing out against the Celtics in a 117-110 victory. I look for some carry-over from that performance here. Note that the Spurs are just 6-16 ATS after winning three of their last four games over the last two seasons, outscored by 5.5 points on average in that situation. They're also a woeful 16-30 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by just 2.2 points per contest. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
03-19-21 | Utah State +4.5 v. Texas Tech | 53-65 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State plus the points over Texas Tech at 1:45 pm et on Friday. In what has the potential to be a very low-scoring game, I'll grab all the points I can get with Utah State on Friday afternoon. The Aggies, of course, fell in the Mountain West Tournament championship against a terrific San Diego State team by double-digits in front of a national audience on CBS last Saturday. With that result fresh in the minds of a lot of bettors, I can understand Texas Tech being installed as a considerable favorite here. With that being said, the Aggies have been a 'tough out' all season long and I expect that to hold true here today. While Texas Tech ranks highly in most offensive categories, including just outside the top-50 in offensive efficiency and the top-20 in floor percentage, it will be up against a very capable Aggies defense that ranks an impressive second in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 15th in opponents effective field goal percentage. It's certainly worth noting that Utah State ranks third in the country in total rebounding percentage compared to Texas Tech, which checks in 97th. The Aggies possess an active defense that ranks 13th in block percentage as well and sit 29th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Both teams are comfortable playing at a relatively slow pace - again in a game that has the potential to be low-scoring, with both teams capable of knocking down their free throws, I look for this one going down to the wire. Take Utah State (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Thunder +7 v. Hawks | 93-116 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. Both of these teams enter this game banged-up but I give the Thunder the considerable edge in terms of motivation. Oklahoma City is coming off a 21-point drubbing at the hands of the Bulls in Chicago two nights ago but that sets it up well here, noting that the Thunder have gone 8-1 ATS off a road loss this season, outscored by just 0.8 points per game in that spot. They're 29-11 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons, outscored by just 3.4 points per game on average. Meanwhile, the Hawks are a miserable 4-14 ATS after posting four or five ATS wins in their last six games over the last two seasons, outscored by a whopping 12.3 points per game in that situation. While we're obviously talking about a much stronger Atlanta squad than we've seen in past years', I do question how much the Hawks will be up for this one after winning six straight games, with their last three victories coming by double-digit margins. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Jazz v. Wizards +12 | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 8 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Utah at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. The Wizards have a quick turnaround here after losing on a last-second shot from De'Aaron Fox last night against the Kings. However, I would argue this is a much tougher game for Utah to get up for than Washington. The Jazz defeated the Celtics two nights ago in Boston and are playing in their third different time zone since the All-Star break having gone from Utah to San Francisco to Boston and now the short trip to Washington. Having gone just 4-6 ATS over their last 10 games, how interested are the Jazz in laying a beatdown on the Wiz here? Meanwhile, Washington has now lost five games in a row and would like nothing more than to play spoiler before heading on the road for three straight games in New York (one against the Nets and two against the Knicks). Note that while the Jazz are an impressive 15-5 ATS on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last three seasons, they've won those games by an average margin of just 4.6 points. The Wizards are 26-9 ATS when playing the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 0.4 points. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State +2 | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wichita State plus the points over Drake at 6:25 pm et on Thursday. All of the analytics seemingly point to Drake in this First Four matchup on Thursday night so it's not a surprise that the Bulldogs have flipped over to the favorite role. After a subpar showing in the AAC Tournament, however, I like the way this game sets up for Wichita State. Drake got off to a red hot start this season but injuries ultimately took their toll and the Bulldogs were never really able to regain that magic late, ultimately falling in the MVC Championship Game against Loyola-Chicago. The Bulldogs absolutely tore through their non-conference schedule but it was littered with beatable teams. Their season-opening win at Kansas State may have looked somewhat impressive at the time but the Wildcats turned out to be a Big 12 doormat. Meanwhile, Wichita State hung tough in key non-conference games against Missouri, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss, going 1-1-1 ATS. The Shockers also split a pair of matchups with eventual AAC champion Houston, going 2-0 ATS in the process. So many bettors were burned by Wichita State in its upset loss in the AAC Tournament semi-finals. We actually cashed a ticket fading them in the quarter-final round against South Florida last Friday (but lost with them on the ML against Cincinnati in the semis). Even with Drake getting healthier in time for this game (ShanQuan Hemphill is expected to return to the lineup for the first time since February), I believe the wrong team is favored in this one. Take Wichita State (10*). | |||||||
03-17-21 | Heat -1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 85-89 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Memphis at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Grizzlies are fading fast right now, losers of three games in a row, allowing their last two opponents to shoot a combined 89-for-156 (57%) from the field. They're back home tonight and catch the Heat in a back-to-back spot but that's certainly been factored into this line. Keep in mind, Memphis is actually a losing team at home this season where it has been outscored by 3.0 points per game on average. The Heat are an even 10-10 on the road but enter tonight's game riding a six-game winning streak away from home. Having held five straight opponents to 45.3% or worse shooting, I like the way the Heat have locked down on defense lately and I'm confident they can add to the Grizzlies woes on Wednesday night. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
03-17-21 | Kings v. Wizards -2.5 | 121-119 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Sacramento at 7:05 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a ticket fading the Kings on Monday night in Charlotte and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they continue their eastern road swing in Washington. The Wizards have lost four straight games but they were underdogs in all four of those contests. This is clearly their best shot at a win on their current five-game homestand as a date with the Jazz looms tomorrow night. As I noted in Monday's analysis, the Kings have been awful following a loss this season and it ultimately boils down to poor coaching in my opinion. They've gone 6-17 ATS off a loss this season, outscored by 7.1 points on average in that situation. Under head coach Luke Walton, the Kings have gone 20-36 ATS following an ATS loss, outscored by 5.5 points per game on average. Look for the Wiz to bring an end to their losing streak here. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-16-21 | Knicks v. 76ers -6.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New York at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Knicks stayed competitive and covered the spread last night in Brooklyn but certainly showed signs of fatigue, shooting just 40% from the field and really only staying in it thanks to the Nets general disinterest in putting the game away. We won with the 76ers in Sunday's rout of the undermanned Spurs and I'm anticipating another convincing victory here on Tuesday. Further to my fatigue comment regarding the Knicks, note that they allowed the Nets to shoot 58% from the field last night. With a number of key cogs currently out of the lineup, I don't see this as an ideal bounce-back spot with New York heading home for a four-game homestand after this one. The 76ers continue to play without Joel Embiid but keep rolling along, winners of five games in a row ATS. They're a terrific positive momentum play having gone 14-4 ATS at home after scoring 115 points or more over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.6 points per game in that situation. They've generally been rock solid at home this season, where they outscore opponents by eight points per game, going 14-6 ATS in the process. The Knicks average 105.9 points per game when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.4 points. I expect them to have a tough time keeping within arm's reach for four quarters tonight. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
03-15-21 | Grizzlies v. Suns -7 | 99-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Grizzlies are coming off a fourth quarter meltdown in Oklahoma City yesterday as they dropped a 128-122 decision as a big road favorite. Now they're in tough as they play the second half of a back-to-back against what will be a highly-motivated Suns squad coming off a double-digit home loss against the Pacers two nights ago. Memphis ranks second in the league in pace rating over its last five contests and I believe that's precisely what will get it into trouble tonight. Note that the Suns rank fifth in the league on offensive rating at home this season while checking in sixth in defensive rating at home. I certainly don't expect to see the Grizzlies shoot better than 50% from the field again tonight after they knocked down 51% of their shots yesterday. This one has the potential to get away from Memphis as it plays for the fourth time since the All-Star break (in three different cities). It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has gone a perfect 37-0 ATS in all games involving the Suns this season. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
03-14-21 | Cavs v. Hawks -6.5 | Top | 82-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Cleveland at 7:35 pm et on Sunday. The Hawks avoided a possible 'trap' last night, dominating the Kings in a 121-106 victory. The fact that they're playing on back-to-back nights (and for the third time in four nights) is certainly being factored into the line here. I like the make-up of the Hawks rotation right now with Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic back healthy to contribute off the bench. Cam Reddish remains sidelined but let's face it, he's been a general disappointment in his sophomore season. The Cavs were playing reasonably well prior to the All-Star break but returned with a 34-point loss in New Orleans on Friday. Cleveland remains an awful road team and will face a motivated Hawks squad here after Atlanta dropped a 112-111 decision as eight-point favorites on the road against the Cavs back on February 23rd. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
03-14-21 | Spurs v. 76ers -2.5 | 99-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over San Antonio at 6:35 pm et on Sunday. The 76ers have faced some Covid-related adversity out of the All-Star break with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons sidelined in their first game back - a convincing win in Chicago - before Embiid returned for Friday's rout of the Wizards. Here, the Sixers draw another favorable matchup against the Spurs. San Antonio delivered a blowout victory at home against the Magic on Friday, successfully bouncing back from a loss in Dallas two nights earlier. The fact that the Spurs won that game on Friday without Demar Derozan was impressive but there's a big difference between beating a team like the Magic at home and going out on the road and competing with the red hot 76ers. I simply feel this line will prove too short, even if the 76ers are once again missing key cogs. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
03-13-21 | Bucks v. Wizards +11 | Top | 125-119 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Wizards are 0-2 SU and ATS coming out of the All-Star break and most will expect them to get blown out by the mighty Bucks here, who returned from the break with a rout of the Knicks. I’ll go the other way and grab the points with the Wiz as I see this as a very difficult game for Milwaukee to get up for. Note that the Bucks are just 14-27 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons. Meanwhile the Wiz are 25-9 ATS when playing the second of back-to-back games over the last three seasons and have been out scored by just 4.3 points per game off a loss by 20+ points over the same period. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-13-21 | Georgetown v. Creighton -7.5 | 73-48 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Georgetown at 6:30 pm et on Saturday. While Georgetown has been a terrific story in the Big East Tournament I expect its magic to run out on Saturday as it runs into a streaking Creighton squad. We've picked our spots wisely with Creighton lately, fading them in their 12-point loss at Villanova on March 3rd and then backing them in last Saturday's 20-point rout of Butler. Credit the Blue Jays for winning a rare low-scoring contest by a 59-56 score against Connecticut yesterday. Here, I look for the Jays offense to once again get rolling and ultimately overwhelm the Hoyas. Georgetown has drew a somewhat favorable schedule this week, first facing an average Marquette squad before upsetting an undermanned Villanova team and then beating Seton Hall in what was virtually a toss-up game. This is a much tougher matchup for Georgetown, noting that it split a pair of meetings with Creighton this season but dropping a 15-point decision the last time they met. Take Creighton (10*). | |||||||
03-13-21 | Iowa v. Illinois -4 | 71-82 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on Illinois minus the points over Iowa at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Iowa has generally been a 'public' team all season so perhaps it's not surprising that we're dealing with such a short pointspread here on Saturday. Few teams in the country are playing as well as Illinois right now, howver, and I look for the Illini to take care of business and advance to the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game. While Iowa was involved in a hard-fought battle against Wisconsin last night (we won with the 'under'), Illinois had a glorified scrimmage against Rutgers, winning by 22 points. Despite barely breaking a sweat, the Illini still managed to score 90 points, which speaks to just how well they're playing right now. The lone regular season matchup between these two teams was decided by five points with Illinois prevailing. I look for the Illini to improve on that winning margin here today. Take Illinois (10*). | |||||||
03-13-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan -6 | 68-67 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Ohio State at 1 pm et on Saturday. It took them a while to get going but once they did, Michigan had little trouble brushing aside Maryland in yesterday's 13-point quarter-final victory. While the Wolverines will face a tougher challenge in Ohio State on Saturday, I expect them to be up for it. The Buckeyes built a big early lead but couldn't hold it in the second half and ultimately needed overtime to get past Purdue yesterday. It has certainly been an uneven stretch for Ohio State as it has won just twice in its last six games overall. I simply feel there's a class difference in this matchup that isn't being properly reflected in the line. After a relatively close matchup in the regular season (Michigan won 92-87) look for the Wolverines to post a convincing victory on Saturday. Take Michigan (10*). | |||||||
03-12-21 | Pacers +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 100-105 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:35 pm et on Friday. The Pacers went into the All-Star break on a real sour note having lost five of their last six games (0-6 ATS) and will certainly have no trouble getting up for this matchup with Lebron and the Lakers in Los Angeles on Friday night. Note that Indiana has gone a stellar 11-1 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 15.1 points when dropping the cash in six or seven of their last eight games, as is the case here. The Lakers also entered the break as a downtrodden squad having lost back-to-back games and six of their last eight games overall. Having lost their most recent game in Sacramento, the Lakers are set up poorly here, having actually been outscored by an average margin of 1.6 points following a road loss over the last three seasons. Take Indiana (10*). | |||||||
03-12-21 | Nevada v. San Diego State -8 | Top | 70-77 | Loss | -104 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Nevada at 9:30 pm et on Friday. We're able to back the Aztecs at a bit of a discount here thanks to Nevada's upset win over Boise State yesterday combined with San Diego State's narrow escape against Wyoming. Keep in mind, the Aztecs were favored by double-digits in both regular season matchups with Nevada. Both games were close but I look for the Wolf Pack to run out of gas and ultimately for the Aztecs to pull away for a convincing victory tonight. San Diego State is one of the best defensive teams in the country and that's what it takes to win a tough conference tournament like the Mountain West. Note that the Aztecs allow just 59.6 points per game away from home this season. Compare that with Nevada, which gives up north of 72 ppg away from home. San Diego State is a terrific positive momentum play here, noting that it has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.7 points off consecutive wins over the last three seasons. Hammering down further, the Aztecs are 13-5 ATS and outscore opponents by 13.3 points per game when playing away from home following three or more wins in a row over the last two seasons. Nevada hasn't fared particularly well in revenge situations, allowing 79.8 points per game when revenging a road loss over the last two seasons. Take San Diego State (10*). | |||||||
03-12-21 | South Florida +9 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-68 | Win | 100 | 4 h 25 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Wichita State at 12 noon et on Friday. While it does check in as the one-seed and has already defeated South Florida twice this season, I think Wichita State is going to play a near perfect game to cover this lofty pointspread. I'm just not convinced we'll see that peak level of performance from the Shockers here. I like the fact that South Florida doesn't need to rely on jacking up threes to stay competitive in a game like this with the Bulls ranking in the top-third in the country in percentage of points from two-pointers this season at north of 52%. I also like that the Bulls have a significant advantage on the glass, ranking an impressive 40th in the country in offensive rebounding percentage (they also check in a respectable 110th in defensive rebounding percentage). Wichita State isn't going to overwhelm South Florida with pressure defense either, noting that it ranks 274th in the country in steals per possession. USF shot miserably in both regular season meetings with Wichita State yet still managed to take one of those games down to the wire losing by only five points. Expect another competitive affair today. Take South Florida (10*). | |||||||
03-12-21 | California v. Colorado -13.5 | Top | 58-61 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 11:30 pm et on Thursday. I have no problem laying the points with Colorado here as it looks to avenge a stunning nine-point loss suffered as a nine-point favorite at Cal back on February 13th. Cal staged another upset last night, blowout Stanford out of the water as an 8.5-point underdog. I don't expect history to repeat itself here, however. Note that Cal has been outscored by an average margin of 14.5 points when coming off a win over a conference opponent over the last two seasons. Meanwhile, Colorado has outscored opponents by an average margin of 14.1 points as a favorite this season, including a 29-point rout of Cal back on January 14th. The Buffaloes clearly looked past the Bears in their most recent meeting but I don't expect to see them get caught flat-footed again here. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
03-11-21 | Suns v. Blazers +4.5 | Top | 127-121 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. The Suns crushed the Blazers by 32 points in Phoenix the last time these two teams met back on February 22nd. This time around, I'm expecting Portland to put up a much tougher fight as it catches the Suns in a favorable situation. Note that Phoenix has inexplicably been outscored by 10.6 points per game on average when playing on the road following a home game over the last three seasons. Further exacerbating things is the fact that the Suns are 0-8 ATS when playing on three or more days' rest over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 10.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Blazers check in 17-6 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 2.5 points on average. Looking up at Phoenix in the Western Conference standings, look for the Blazers to take a stand at home on Thursday night. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
03-11-21 | UNLV v. Utah State -10 | 53-74 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over UNLV at 9 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Aggies in what amounts to a road game against UNLV in Mountain West quarter-final action on Thursday night. Note that the Aggies have gone 8-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite this season, winning those games by a whopping 26.9 points per game. In fact, over the last two seasons, Utah State has outscored opponents by 23 ppg as a double-digit favorite so it is certainly comfortable in this situation. UNLV posted a 28-point rout of Air Force yesterday but prior to that had gone 3-10 ATS over its last 10 games. The Aggies will undoubtedly have their guard up after only managing to split two games against UNLV during the regular season with the loss coming in a bit of a hangover spot following a tough home loss against Colorado State. Take Utah State (10*). | |||||||
03-11-21 | Celtics +2.5 v. Nets | 109-121 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. The Celtics went into the All-Star break riding a four-game winning streak and they come out of it as healthy as they've been all season with Marcus Smart expected to return to the lineup on Thursday night. Note that Boston has been tremendous in an underdog role over the last two seasons, going 23-11 ATS and actually outscoring its opponents by an average margin of 0.8 points. The Celtics have also outscored the opposition by an average margin of 3.1 points when on the road revenging a home loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. With the Nets missing Kevin Durant and Boston chasing them in the Atlantic Division standings this would be an opportune time for the C's to stage an upset. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
03-11-21 | Mississippi State +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Mississippi State plus the points over Kentucky at 12 noon et on Thursday. This looks like a case of undervalued vs. overvalued as Mississippi State has posted a winning ATS record this season while Kentucky checks in seven games below .500 from an ATS perspective. Yes, the Wildcats have owned this series over the years, but if there was ever a time for the Bulldogs to get a win in this series, this would be it. We actually won with Kentucky in its most recent game - a rout of South Carolina this past Saturday. That came at home. Away from home, the Wildcats have gone 4-9 this season, outscored by right around two points per game. Note that Kentucky has gone 0-7 ATS after an ATS win this season, outscored by an average margin of 8.1 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Mississippi State checks in 9-1 ATS coming off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive margin of 12.8 points on average in that situation. Take Mississippi State (10*). | |||||||
03-11-21 | Ball State v. Toledo -8 | 89-91 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toledo minus the points over Ball State at 11 am et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with Toledo in this MAC Tournament matchup as the Rockets and Cardinals play each other for a second straight game. Toledo took the regular season finale between these two teams by 19 points last week, avenging a stunning 81-67 loss as a nine-point favorite on the road earlier this season. Note that Toledo averaged 84.8 points per game and outscored opponents by an average margin of 12 points in conference play this season. The Rockets have been a solid positive momentum play having gone 12-5 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.9 points coming off an ATS win this season. Meanwhile, Ball State suffered a significant drop-off in offensive production away from home during the regular season, averaging just 69.7 points per game. Toledo, on the other hand, held its own, averaging 79.9 ppg away from home. Revenge hasn't really worked in the Cardinals favor in recent years as they've gone 2-10 ATS, outscored by an average margin of 7.7 points when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Take Toledo (10*). | |||||||
03-10-21 | Spurs +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. I don't think the Spurs are getting nearly enough credit for what they accomplished in the face of what seemed like constant adversity in the first half of the season. San Antonio checks into this game sporting an 18-14 overall record, including a stellar 9-4 record away from home. That's despite missing key cogs due to injuries and otherwise throughout. The Spurs have had plenty of success here in Dallas in recent years, taking three of the last four meetings outright and I like them catching the points here as well. Note that San Antonio has thrived in a revenge role in recent years, going an incredible 42-17 ATS when revenging a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points. Meanwhile, Dallas has been as inconsistent as they come from an ATS perspective, and check in 9-20 ATS in 29 home games after posting an ATS win in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 0.5 points in that situation. San Antonio is expected to have some bodies back for this one and should be fresh after the All-Star break. I expect Gregg Popovich will have his team ready for this one. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
03-10-21 | San Jose State v. Wyoming -11.5 | Top | 80-111 | Win | 100 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
Conference Tournament Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Wyoming minus the points over San Jose State at 2 pm et on Wednesday. I suspect most bettors may shy away from a middling 13-10 Wyoming squad laying double-digits in the opening round of the Mountain West Tournament on Wednesday afternoon. We won't hesitate to back the Cowboys, however, as they should be able to take their frustrations out on an awful San Jose State squad. The Spartans have just five wins to their credit this season. Two of those victories came against non-Division I opponents. The other three came against 5-19 Air Force (two wins) and 6-15 New Mexico. This will be their first matchup with Wyoming this season with the Cowboys having won 13 of the last 14 matchups. Credit Wyoming for hanging in there against a tough Mountain West schedule this season, winning the games it should and even staging a few upsets along the way (it posted outright underdog wins against Fresno State, Nevada and UNLV). Note that San Jose State was outscored by a whopping 20.4 points per game away from home during the regular season. Wyoming was far more respectable in that regard, outscored by just 3.7 points per game. In an underdog role, San Jose State has been outscored by 17.9 points per game this season. The Spartans have been an excellent negative momentum fade having gone 7-17 ATS, outscored by an average margin of 21.9 points when playing away from home following two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, as is the case here. This is probably the only winnable game for Wyoming in this tournament, and I expect the Cowboys to take full advantage. Take Wyoming (10*). | |||||||
03-10-21 | CS Sacramento v. Northern Colorado -2 | 83-90 | Win | 100 | 3 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Colorado minus the points over Sacramento State at 11 am et on Wednesday. I'll lay the short number with Northern Colorado in this early start matchup in Idaho on Wednesday. Both teams are coming off close games last time out with Sacramento State upsetting Montana State 74-73 as a three-point underdog and Northern Colorado falling 60-59 as a 10-point underdog at Weber State. While there's not a lot separating these two teams from an overall record perspective, I do feel that Northern Colorado is the superior squad. The Bears have been a terrific bounce-back team, particularly away from home. They've gone 9-1 ATS when playing away from home off of one or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.8 points in that situation. On the flip side, they've averaged 75 points per game and outscored opponents by 9.1 points on average after posting two ATS wins in their last three games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Sacramento State has been outscored by an average margin of 7.8 points when playing away from home after posting one or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. Take Northern Colorado (10*). | |||||||
03-09-21 | Wake Forest v. Notre Dame -8 | Top | 77-80 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Notre Dame minus the points over Wake Forest at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We cashed a ticket fading Wake Forest in its most recent game - a double-digit home loss against Georgia Tech last Friday night. The Demon Deacons have all but packed up the tent for the 2020-21 season, losers of six straight games both SU and ATS. Note that Wake Forest has won just once in 10 tries away from its home court this season, outscored by an average margin of 12.3 points. This is a revenge spot after Notre Dame took the regular season meeting by 21 points but Wake hasn't been anything special in that situation, outscored by an average margin of 6.6 points when revenging a loss over the last two seasons. The Irish managed to pull up their socks and bring an end to their four-game losing streak with a very impressive 10-point victory over a quality Florida State squad on Saturday. That was the type of victory that should produce a positive carry-over effect here. While the Irish went 4-9 on the road during the regular season, they were actually outscored by an average margin of only 2.2 points, winning the majority of the games they should (some in blowout fashion) while losing those where they stepped up in class. This game certainly qualifies as the former and I'm confident we'll see the Irish prevail by a convincing margin. Take Notre Dame (10*). | |||||||
03-09-21 | Miami-FL v. Pittsburgh -3 | 79-73 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh minus the points over Miami at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Panthers in this matchup of two teams coming off disappointing ACC campaigns. Miami did end its regular season on a positive note with an 80-76 win over Boston College. Of course, the fact that the Canes needed everything they had in the tank just two in that game over a bottom-feeding Eagles squad wasn't all that encouraging. Note that Miami has lost 13 of 15 games, outscored by an average margin of 9.6 points per game when coming off a conference win over the last three seasons. Pittsburgh ran up against a very tough conference schedule from the start of February on and while it went 2-6 SU it did hold its own against the number, going 4-3-1 ATS. The Panthers will have the best player on the floor in this matchup in Justin Champagnie, who finished as the runner-up for ACC Player of the Year. Take Pittsburgh (10*). | |||||||
03-08-21 | Northern Kentucky -1 v. Oakland | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
CBB Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Oakland at 9:30 pm et on Monday. Given the discrepancy between these two teams overall records, with North Kentucky owning a considerable edge in that regard, it may be a little odd to see the Norse priced near a pk'em in this matchup. I can understand the logic behind it, however, with this game being played on a neutral court and Northern Kentucky having posted a losing record away from home, not to mention the fact that Oakland has been scoring at will lately, putting up 80+ points in five straight and seven of its last nine games overall. With that being said, I like the way this Horizon League Tournament semi-final matchup sets up for the Norse. NKU has outscored opponents by 5.3 points per game on average after winning two of its last three games over the last two seasons. The Norse have also fared well as a positive momentum play coming off a win by six points or less in their last game, outscoring the opposition by 6.7 points on average in that situation over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, Oakland has been outscored by nearly 10 points per game in an underdog role this season. When coming off an ATS win, the Grizzlies have been outscored by an average margin of 8.4 points in their next contest. While this has been a series that has featured plenty of close games, Northern Kentucky has managed to win four of the last five meetings over the last three seasons. Take Northern Kentucky (10*). | |||||||
03-08-21 | St. Mary's v. Gonzaga -17.5 | Top | 55-78 | Win | 100 | 23 h 11 m | Show |
WCC Game of the Month. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over St. Mary's at 9 pm et on Monday. This number may seem fairly high based on the heated rivalry these two teams have been a part of over the years but that rivalry has cooled recently with Gonzaga evolving into an elite National Championship contender and St. Mary's taking a step back. Gonzaga swept the regular season series between these two teams with relative ease, but did only manage to go 1-1 ATS, helping to keep the number in check here. Note that the Zags actually enter this game off back-to-back ATS losses. That's not really a bad thing as the Bulldogs have averaged 90.9 points per game while outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 23.3 points when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons. They've also been a solid positive momentum play, averaging 90.4 points per game and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 21.4 points after scoring 85+ points in two straight games over the last two seasons. St. Mary's is a long-term loser in an underdog role, going 91-124 ATS and has been outscored by 15.6 points on average when revenging two straight double-digit losses against an opponent, as is the case here. Take Gonzaga (10*). | |||||||
03-07-21 | Drake v. Loyola-Chicago -7.5 | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago minus the points over Drake at 2 pm et on Sunday. I think the fact that Drake scored 71 points in yesterday's thrilling victory over Missouri State, not to mention the fact that it beat Loyola-Chicago 51-50 the last time these two teams met last month is giving Bulldogs backers a big of a false sense of security catching a seemingly generous helping of points in this one. Keep in mind, prior to that one-point win over the Ramblers the Bulldogs had been routed by 27 points against Loyola-Chicago the previous day. A letdown was certainly in order for Loyola as it may have taken a second win for granted against the Bulldogs. Drake isn't the same team it was earlier in the season, not without two of its best players in Roman Penn and ShanQuan Hemphill. Of course those two absences have been factored into this line but worth noting nonetheless. While Drake certainly needs this win a little more to reach the NCAA Tournament, desperation doesn't always lead to victory. Loyola-Chicago has been locked in for weeks, months even as it has its sights set on a MVC Championship and potentially a deep NCAA Tournament run. Note that the Ramblers are an excellent positive momentum play here, having gone 7-1 ATS after an ATS win as a double-digit favorite this season, outscoring the opposition by a wide 17.9-point margin on average. They've got an excellent track record as a favorite this season, going 15-7 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 16.9 points in those games. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). | |||||||
03-06-21 | Butler v. Creighton -12.5 | Top | 73-93 | Win | 100 | 19 h 21 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Butler at 5 pm et on Saturday. We won by fading Creighton in its most recent game but I won't hesitate to go the other way and back the Blue Jays as they return home for their regular season finale against Butler. The Blue Jays will have revenge on their minds after suffering a narrow loss on the road against Butler earlier this season. It's not as if Creighton needs any extra motivation here after it played worse than the final score indicated in Wednesday's loss at Villanova. That brought an end to a winless two-game road trip for the Blue Jays after they had fallen against Xavier as well. Home cooking should serve them well as they've gone 10-3 in the host role, outscoring the opposition by more than 14 points per game. Note that they're 12-3 ATS when returning home off a game as a road underdog over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of just under 18 points in that situation. Butler checks in a woeful 1-9 on the road this season where it has been outscored by around nine points per game. Take Creighton (10*). | |||||||
03-06-21 | Illinois v. Ohio State -2 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
CBB TV Game of the Year. My selection is on Ohio State minus the points over Illinois at 4 pm et on Saturday. It's easy to make the case for Illinois as the better team in this matchup, especially when you consider current form. The Illini are coming off three straight wins, including back-to-back of the outright underdog variety on the road against Wisconsin and Michigan. The win at Michigan was as dominant as they come as the Illini jumped out to a big early lead and never looked back in a 23-point rout, and it came in front of a national audience. Ohio State checks in down-trodden off three straight losses but two of those could have gone either way and all three came against tough opponents in Michigan, Michigan State and Iowa. Here, the Buckeyes have an opportunity to regain their footing with a win over an elite opponent on their home floor to wrap up the regular season and I look for them to do just that. Note that Ohio State is still 10-3 at home this season, outscoring opponents by more than 10 points per game. They already have a feather in their cap in this particular matchup, having defeated Illinois by six points on the road back in mid-January. Interestingly, Illinois has gone 0-6 ATS when revenging an upset loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 9.5 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 18-9 ATS as a home favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by a wide margin of 15.3 points on average. Take Ohio State (10*). | |||||||
03-06-21 | Indiana State +10 v. Loyola-Chicago | 49-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana State plus the points over Loyola-Chicago at 1 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with Indiana State on Saturday as it looks to give Loyola-Chicago all it can handle in its MVC Tournament semi-final matchup. The Sycamores got off to a slow start this season but that had a lot to do with a front-loaded conference schedule that saw them face Drake, Missouri State and Loyola-Chicago each twice before the second week of January was over. Indiana State did manage to split its two-game set against Loyola-Chicago, winning the first game by five before dropping the second by 10. Here, I simply feel that the Ramblers will have a tough time extending the margin in a game where possessions will likely be at a minimum (ISU ranks 309th and Loyola ranks 340th in the nation in team possessions per game this season). The Ramblers opponent yesterday, Southern Illinois, wasn't able to knock down enough shots to stay within arm's reach (the Salukis shot 40% from the field and made just 4-of-18 three-point attempts). I do think that the Sycamores can do a better job here today, even after a subpar shooting effort that still resulted in a double-digit win over Evansville yesterday. Take Indiana State (9*). | |||||||
03-06-21 | Georgetown v. Connecticut -9.5 | 82-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Connecticut minus the points over Georgetown at 12 noon et on Saturday. I'll keep things simple here and fade Georgetown coming off an outright upset win over Xavier at home on Tuesday night. The Hoyas have been frustratingly inconsistent this season going 9-11 overall, including a 2-5 road record. Connecticut is a solid positive momentum play here coming off three straight double-digit victories but not good enough to suddenly become complacent in this winnable home game to wrap up the regular season. Note that the Huskies current three-game winning streak began with a 13-point win over Georgetown. Note that the SU winner has gone a perfect 15-0 ATS in UConn's last 15 games. Take Connecticut (10*). | |||||||
03-05-21 | Colorado State v. Nevada +1.5 | Top | 82-85 | Win | 100 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Nevada plus the points over Colorado State at 9 pm et on Friday. I'll back the Wolf Pack on Friday night as they look to end Colorado State's five-game winning streak and also halt their own losing skid at two games following consecutive losses at Utah State. Colorado State checks in 17-4 on the season but really what have the Rams done lately? Since the start of February they've gone 5-0 with a number of cancellations thrown in the mix. Those five wins came against 6-15 New Mexico, 5-19 Air Force and 12-10 Wyoming (the two victories over Wyoming came by a combined 11 points as both games could have gone either way). Nevada is coming off three straight two-game sets against the likes of UNLV, Boise State and aforementioned Utah State. The Wolf Pack certainly held their own over that stretch, going 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS. Here, Nevada looks to improve to 7-0 ATS over the last three seasons after allowing 75 points or more in its last two games. The last six times that situation has come up the Wolf Pack have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 13.7 points. Nevada has taken the last two meetings between these two teams on this floor and I look for it to make it three straight here on Friday night. Take Nevada (10*). | |||||||
03-05-21 | Monmouth -5 v. Rider | 65-62 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Monmouth minus the points over Rider at 4 pm et on Friday. Monmouth needed overtime to get past Rider in the first game of this back-to-back set but I believe the potential is there for the Hawks to run the Broncs out of the gym on Friday afternoon. Keep in mind, Monmouth ranks an impressive 13th in the nation in pace rating this season. The Hawks haven't necessarily been able to convert that up-tempo play into a ton of offensive success as they shoot just 42.9% as a team, but that's still better than the Broncs 42.5% and Rider checks in ranked T198th in terms of pace rating. I also like the Hawks active defense as they rank 36th in the country in steals per game. By contrast, Rider sits 298th in that category. The Broncs rode an uncharacteristically strong three-point shooting game in keeping close with the Hawks yesterday, nearly doubling their season average in terms of threes made per game. Should their outside shooting cool off today they're ripe for a blowout in my opinion. Take Monmouth (10*). | |||||||
03-04-21 | Texas v. Oklahoma -2 | Top | 69-65 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma minus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Thursday. Texas gained plenty of early season notoriety by getting off to an incredible 10-1 start, including road wins over Kansas and West Virginia. Since then, however, the Longhorns have gone just 2-2 on the road, with the two victories coming against bad Kansas State and Iowa State teams. Oklahoma also got off to a tremendous start this season, only falling on hard times recently, dropping its last three games. That skid started with an embarrassing loss at Kansas State before suffering consecutive setbacks against rival Oklahoma State. The Sooners certainly realize the importance of getting it right here in their regular season finale and know they're going to get Texas' best punch after upsetting the Longhorns by a single point on the road earlier this season. Keep in mind, Oklahoma is 10-2 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by over 15 points per game. After scoring 75 points or more in consecutive games this season, the Sooners have outscored opponents by an average margin of 12.3 points in their next game. Take Oklahoma (10*). | |||||||
03-03-21 | Thunder +8 v. Mavs | Top | 78-87 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
PLEASE NOTE: This line has dropped considerably with the news that Luka Doncic is doubtful for the Mavs. While I did personally play the Thunder at +8 well in advance of the Luka news, OKC still warrants a play at the current number as well. NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Dallas at 8:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs failed to cover the 6.5-7-point spread for us on Monday despite holding a double-digit lead for much of the fourth quarter. Their defensive play continues to be a concern and I expect them to be in for a fight against a scrappy Thunder squad on Wednesday night. Note that Oklahoma City has been a solid road underdog in recent years, going 28-9 ATS in that situation over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 3.1 points. It gets even better when the Thunder are coming off a loss as they've gone 18-8 ATS on the road after suffering at least one loss, actually outscoring the opposition by a point per game on average. Meanwhile, similar situations have been dreadful for the Mavs as they're 3-12 at home off a road win over the last two seasons, stunningly outscored by an average of nearly nine points in that situation. Note that these two teams split a pair of meetings last season, with the Mavs owning the scoring margin edge by a total of five points. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
03-03-21 | Creighton v. Villanova -4.5 | 60-72 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova minus the points over Creighton at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. We won with Creighton as a home underdog the last time these two teams met but I won't hesitate to go the other way as the Blue Jays and Wildcats renew hostilities on Wednesday night. Creighton ran into a roadblock over the weekend, suffering an eight-point loss at Xavier. That brought an end to its four-game winning streak. Villanova is just 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and coming off a stunning double-digit loss on the road against Butler. That leads me to believe we'll see a peak performance here as it looks to rebound before closing out the regular season with a stop in Providence. Note that the Wildcats have outscored opponents by an average margin of 10.5 points at home seeking revenge against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Villanova (10*). | |||||||
03-03-21 | NC State v. Notre Dame -2 | 80-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Notre Dame minus the points over N.C. State at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Irish as they look to snap their three-game losing streak and also bring an end to N.C. State's four-game winning streak on Wednesday night. Keep in mind, each of Notre Dame's last three losses came on the road. Note that N.C. State has been outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points as a road underdog of six points or less this season. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has outscored opponents by an average of 5.3 points when coming off at least two losses in a row over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Notre Dame (10*). | |||||||
03-03-21 | Clemson v. Syracuse -2.5 | 54-64 | Win | 100 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Syracuse minus the points over Clemson at 5 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the Orange as a positive momentum play here as they look to build on Monday's two-point win over North Carolina. I like the matchup here, even with Clemson coming in hot off five straight wins. Note that the Tigers are a miserable 2-13 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of eight points in that situation. Syracuse is an outstanding 12-1 straight-up at home this season and we're dealing with a very reasonable pointspread as it looks to improve to 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings with Clemson at the Carrier Dome. Take Syracuse (10*). | |||||||
03-02-21 | Indiana +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Michigan State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The Hoosiers picked a bad time to go ice cold, dropping each of their last three games heading into Tuesday night's showdown in East Lansing. I don't expect them to go away quietly, however, and believe they can win this game outright, but will certainly grab the points of insurance. Michigan State had won three games in a row before dropping an 18-point decision at Maryland last time out. Note that the Spartans went to Indiana and defeated the Hoosiers by seven points back on February 20th, but that was their first win in four tries in this series. I simply feel that Michigan State is being asked to lay too many points here given the cracks it has shown defensively down the stretch, and going up against what will be a highly-motivated Indiana squad. Take Indiana (10*). | |||||||
03-01-21 | Mavs -6.5 v. Magic | Top | 130-124 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Orlando at 7:05 pm et on Monday. Even in a clear letdown spot off Saturday's nationally-televised win over the Nets, I expect the Mavericks to show up and take care of the reeling Magic on Monday night in Orlando. Note that Dallas is 19-6 ATS as a road favorite over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average of nearly nine points. Meanwhile, the Magic have been awful in the home underdog role, going 6-17 ATS over the last two seasons, losing those games by more than 10 points on average. It's also worth noting that Orlando is 0-11 ATS at home when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, losing those games by nearly 12 points on average. That's notable as the Mavs took the first matchup between these two teams this season by 14 points back on January 9th. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
02-27-21 | Wolves v. Wizards -4.5 | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Minnesota at 7:05 pm et on Saturday. The Wizards are currently one of the league's hottest teams yet here they are laying only a couple of buckets against a reeling T'Wolves squad. Washington's reputation obviously precedes it but that's just fine with us as we can take advantage with a reasonably short pointspread on Saturday night. Note that the straight-up winner has now covered the spread in each of the Wizards last 20 games. I'm certainly comfortable going against Minnesota here, noting that it has managed to secure just five victories in the last two months (remember, the T'Wolves started the season with consecutive wins but have gone 5-26 SU since). Minnesota hasn't fared well in similar situations this season, going 11-23 ATS as an underdog of six points or less over the last three seasons, losing those games by nearly six points on average. The T'Wolves are also just 7-20 ATS after scoring 110+ points in their last two games over the last two seasons, outscored by an average of nearly 10 points per game in that situation. Maybe the Wiz look past the T'Wolves here, but even with their recent success, I don't think they're at the level where they would afford themselves that type of letdown. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
02-27-21 | Louisville v. Duke -5.5 | Top | 80-73 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Duke minus the points over Louisville at 6 pm et on Saturday. It seems like it's going to take quite an effort to take down the Blue Devils right now as they've won four games in a row both SU and ATS, completely turning their season around following an awful start. Louisville continues to play an uneven brand of basketball, having gone 3-4 SU and ATS over its last seven games. The Cardinals are coming off a double-digit win over Notre Dame last time out, but that was at home. They're just 3-4 on the road, where they've been outscored by more than eight points per game. Note that while Duke is a woeful 7-16 ATS after scoring 80+ points in its last game over the last two seasons, as is the case here, it has still managed to win those games by more than eight points on average. We're dealing with a very reasonable pointspread here. Take Duke (10*). | |||||||
02-26-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 119-99 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Memphis at 8:05 pm et on Friday. This is a spot we've gone back to time and time again as the Clippers look to rebound off an ugly loss against these same Grizzlies last night. Note that Los Angeles is 27-10 ATS when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of around nine points. Better still, the Clips are 19-9 ATS off an outright upset loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by a wide 14.1-point margin on average. Los Angeles needs to right the ship in this game as the road trip will only get tougher with stops in Milwaukee and Boston up next. Memphis was highly-motivated to show up and show out in last night's game off consecutive losses but may not be able to reach that same level of intensity here. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-26-21 | Indiana State v. Valparaiso +3 | Top | 58-43 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
CBB False Favorite Game of the Month. My selection is on Valparaiso plus the points over Indiana State at 7 pm et on Friday. I like the way this one sets up for Valpo as it comes in battle-tested off three straight games decided by three points or less. The fact it went 1-2 in those three contests should help keep its motivation level high for this one as it hosts Indiana State. Valpo is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this series but dropped a double-digit decision against the Sycamores the last time they matched up last February. Here we find the Crusaders 11-3 when having lost four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of nearly two points in that situation. They're also an incredible 70-36 ATS when coming off a road loss, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 3.8 points. Indiana State has certainly been rolling along but might have a tough time keeping the positive momentum building here having not played in the last nine days. Take Valparaiso (10*). | |||||||
02-25-21 | Pelicans v. Bucks -9 | Top | 125-129 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over New Orleans at 9:35 pm et on Thursday. We've been high on the Bucks lately, most recently backing them in their 27-point rout of the T'Wolves on Tuesday. You would think that might have been a tough game for them to get up for but they shook off a sluggish start and ultimately pulled away for a blowout win. Here, I don't think they'll have any difficulty getting up for a nationally-televised game against Zion and the Pelicans, especially after dropping a 131-126 decision in New Orleans back in January. Milwaukee has reeled off three straight wins since an extended slide that saw it drop five games in a row. It has been a tremendous momentum play in recent years, going 12-2 ATS at home after posting consecutive wins by 10+ points over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of nearly 19 points. In the role of home favorite over the last three seasons, the Bucks have gone 57-36 ATS, outscoring opponents by 13 points per contest. The Pelicans are coming off consecutive wins and certainly rolling offensively but figure to struggle here on the road, where they've gone 5-10 SU and 6-9 ATS this season. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
02-24-21 | Florida State v. Miami-FL +11.5 | Top | 88-71 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Florida State at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. This game sets up well for Miami against an unsuspecting Florida State squad that's coming off three straight wins and already defeated the Hurricanes by 20+ points earlier this season. Miami hasn't been able to recapture that lightning in a bottle it found in a home win over Duke back on February 1st. The Canes followed up that win with relatively close losses against Virginia Tech and Notre Dame before getting their doors blown off by Georgia Tech last time out. I expect them to bounce back in a sense here, noting that they've gone 16-6 ATS in home games off a conference loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by around two points per game. Miami is also a long-term ATS winner at 29-15 ATS when coming off three straight losses against conference opponents. Meanwhile, Florida State is 35-54 ATS in road games following three straight wins and has been outscored in those games by 0.6 points on average. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
02-23-21 | Wolves v. Bucks -10.5 | Top | 112-139 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Tuesday. After an extended slump, we've seen an unwinding of the Bucks of sorts in recent days as they've delivered blowout wins over the Thunder and Kings. I look for that trend to continue here as they host the T'Wolves on Tuesday night. Minnesota rallied to nearly upset the Knicks on the road on Sunday night but ultimately fell short and now ride a four-game SU and ATS losing streak. It hasn't proven to be a good bounce-back team in recent years, going 7-17 ATS after dropping the cash in five or six of its last seven games over the last two seasons and 20-34 ATS following an ATS loss over the same period. Meanwhile, the Bucks are an excellent positive momentum play having gone 52-33 ATS after winning two of their last three games over the last three seasons. Despite their recent struggles, they're still a terrific 57-37 ATS at home over the last three seasons. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
02-22-21 | Syracuse +5 v. Duke | Top | 71-85 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
CBB TV Game of the Month. My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Duke at 7 pm et on Monday. The majority of bettors will likely be on the Blue Devils in this game but we'll go the other way and back the Orange as they look to halt Duke's three-game winning streak. The Orange don't have a good track record on the road this season by any means but they've also faced a very tough slate of opponents. Everyone was down on the Blue Devils after they suffered three straight losses to Miami, North Carolina and Notre Dame earlier this month but since then they've reeled off three straight wins over N.C. State, Wake Forest and Virginia. The win over Virginia came by a single point on Saturday and I think that puts them in a letdown situation here. Syracuse has won three straight games, scoring 70+ points on each occasion. Note that Duke is just 2-8 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Blue Devils are also 7-17 ATS following two straight wins over conference opponents over the last three seasons. This is the game the Orange have no trouble at all getting up for, on a Monday night at Cameron Indoor Stadium in front of an ESPN audience. Take Syracuse (10*). | |||||||
02-21-21 | Nets +5.5 v. Clippers | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Clippers in Friday's victory over the red hot Jazz but I won't hesitate to go the other way on Sunday as they find themselves in a much different situation, favored against the surging Nets. I like what I've seen from Brooklyn lately, as it has played a very cohesive brand of basketball, even with Kevin Durant sidelined. There's little reason for the Nets to roll over in this spot as they've had ample time to get down off their pedestal following Thursday's rout of Lebron and the Lakers. The Clips have been inconsistent all season and should get the Nets best shot in this one, especially with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George back in the fold. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
02-21-21 | South Florida +1.5 v. Temple | Top | 83-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
AAC Game of the Month. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Sunday. South Florida has no business being the underdog in this matchup on the road against Temple on Sunday afternoon. The Bulls will certainly get up for this game on the heels of three consecutive losses with the most recent coming in blowout fashion on the road against in-state rival UCF. Temple has just four wins in 13 games this season and has lost five in a row with the last four coming by a combined 14 points. Those results were somewhat flattering for an Owls team that just isn't very good. Note that Temple ranks T295th in the country in offensive rating and T207th in defensive rating this season. USF hasn't been much better but the Bulls will be good enough to secure the much-needed road win on Sunday afternoon. Take South Florida (10*). | |||||||
02-20-21 | Vanderbilt v. Alabama -15 | Top | 78-82 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 26 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Vanderbilt at 1 pm et on Saturday. I'll lay the points with Alabama on Saturday afternoon as it draws a favorable matchup against Vandy on its home floor. The Crimson Tide remain an underrated Top 10 team as far as I'm concerned. They roll into this game on the heels of a rout of Georgia. Meanwhile, Vandy is coming off a narrow four-point home loss against rival Kentucky on Wednesday night. That came after a somewhat surprising 21-point blowout victory over Mississippi State last Saturday. I simply expect the Commodores to get outmatched here, much like they did in 20-point losses at Davidson and Tennessee earlier this season. Take Alabama (10*). | |||||||
02-19-21 | Jazz v. Clippers +4 | Top | 112-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Utah at 10:05 pm et on Friday. We saw plenty of bettors looking to fade the Jazz in the front half of this two-game set in Los Angeles but were ultimately burned as Utah pulled away against the Kawhi Leonard and Paul George-less Clippers. I believe now is the time to back the Clips as they've been an excellent bounce-back team in recent years and whether they have Kawhi or George back on the floor or not, I like them to give the Jazz a run on Friday night. Note that Los Angeles is an impressive 24-11 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of 12.5 points. They've also gone 17-7 ATS after giving up 105+ points in three straight games, as is the case here, winning those contests by an average margin of over 10 points. The Jazz found themselves in a similar situation to this back at the end of January as they looked to defeat the Nuggets on the road for a second time in two weeks. After notching a 109-105 victory on January 17th they fell by 11 points in the return trip on January 31st. Similarly, I look for Utah to get tripped up here, noting it was also riding a long winning streak (11 games) entering that contest. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-19-21 | Oakland v. Wisc-Milwaukee -1 | 85-81 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Milwaukee minus the points over Oakland at 6 pm et on Friday. Bettors are obviously not very high on Wisconsin-Milwaukee right now as it checks in having dropped four games in a row. I like the Panthers chances of getting back in the win column on Friday, however, as they face a terrible defensive opponent in Oakland. The Golden Grizzlies snapped their three-game losing skid with a win at Robert Morris last time out but have now allowed five of their last seven opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field. They're giving up nearly 84 points per game away from home this season. Note that while the Panthers have lost four games in a row SU they did manage to cover the spread in consecutive losses at Wright State last weekend. They've gone 58-28 ATS following a double-digit loss against a conference opponent and also check in 133-97 ATS after covering the number in two of their last three games. I'm willing to take a flyer on a team that is happy to be home having played just two games on this floor since mid-January. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
02-19-21 | IUPU-Indianapolis v. Youngstown State -4.5 | Top | 72-70 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
Horizon League Game of the Month. My selection is on Youngstown State minus the points over IUPUI at 5 pm et on Friday. IUPUI caught Illinois-Chicago in a favorable back-to-back spot last weekend and absolutely knocked it out of the park, winning both games by a combined 27-point margin. While the Jaguars have certainly been playing well, I believe they're in a tough spot here on the road against a surging Youngstown State squad that has owned this series on Friday. Youngstown State has taken 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series including each of the last six ATS. The Penguins roll into this game off five straight wins. They've been terrific since the middle of January. Even in their four losses since January 16th they've been right there, losing each of those contests by seven points or less. Note that IUPUI hasn't fared well off outright upset wins over the last three seasons, going 3-11 ATS, losing those games by an average margin of nearly nine points. The Jaguars are a long-term loser when going on the road following two or more consecutive victories, posting an 8-23 ATS mark in that situation. They're also a woeful 13-29 ATS after scoring 85 points or more in their most recent game, as is the case here. Take Youngstown State (10*). | |||||||
02-18-21 | Heat -1 v. Kings | Top | 118-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Sacramento at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. Bettors have seemingly lost faith in the Heat, and perhaps for good reason as they've dropped the cash in three straight games. They've generally been a terrific bounce-back team in recent years, however, and I see this as a fine 'get right' spot against a reeling Kings squad. Note that Miami is 30-18 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.5 points in those games. They've also gotten stronger the longer road trips go on, posting a 37-18 ATS mark in road games after playing at least four straight games away from home. The Kings have dropped four games in a row, both SU and ATS, and check in just 7-10 SU at home this season. The Heat need this win and I'm confident they'll get it. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
02-18-21 | San Diego v. Santa Clara -6.5 | Top | 71-60 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on Santa Clara minus the points over San Diego at 9 pm et on Thursday. San Diego has just two road wins this season and those came against 3-13 Cal Poly and 6-13 Portland. Now the Toreros are in a tough spot having not played since January 28th due to Covid protocols. Meanwhile, Santa Clara will be eager to get right back on the floor after suffering a narrow three-point home loss against 10-6 Loyola Marymount on Tuesday night. Prior to that game the Broncos had been dealing with Covid issues of their own, off since January 23rd. Perhaps the low-grade performance was to be expected in their first game back. These two teams actually met back on January 21st in San Diego with Santa Clara pulling out a six-point win despite shooting just 38% from the field and 62% from the free throw line. Look for a sharper effort from the Broncos here. Take Santa Clara (10*). | |||||||
02-17-21 | Blazers v. Pelicans -3 | Top | 126-124 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Portland at 9:05 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans 'got right' with a win in Memphis last night and we were along for the ride, backing them in that victory. Now New Orleans makes the quick trip home to host the Blazers on Wednesday night and I like the Pelicans to deliver the cash again. For Portland, this will be its third game in four nights, in three different cities. The Blazers have undoubtedly been playing well but this might be the spot where tired legs catch up with them. New Orleans ran into a flat spot in its schedule last weekend, culminating with a double-digit loss in Detroit on Sunday night. I liked the way it bounced back last night in Memphis and expect to see some carry-over from that performance here. The Pels' are quite simply catching the Blazers in the right place at the right time as far as I'm concerned. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
02-17-21 | South Carolina +11.5 v. Tennessee | 73-93 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Carolina plus the points over Tennessee at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I like the Gamecocks catching all of those points on the road against the Vols on Wednesday night. South Carolina has lost three games in a row but only one of those losses came in blowout fashion. Note that the last time the Gamecocks lost three games in a row they followed it up with a 24-point rout of Georgia. South Carolina is a long-term winner as a double-digit road underdog, having gone 45-26 ATS in that situation. Meanwhile, Tennessee checks in 3-9 ATS in SEC play this season and is a miserable 10-21 ATS after winning four or five of its last six games over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just over four points in that situation. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season after they split a pair of matchups last season, with those two games decided by a grand total of three points. Take South Carolina (10*). | |||||||
02-17-21 | Duke v. Wake Forest +6 | 84-60 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wake Forest plus the points over Duke at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. We missed the mark fading Duke on the road against N.C. State on Saturday as the Blue Devils got off to a hot start and never looked back in a convincing victory. Wake Forest is coming off a 92-85 loss on the road against Florida State but there was no shame in that defeat as the Seminoles are an elite team that just manhandled Virginia on Monday night. The Demon Deacons will certainly be happy to be back home after three straight games on the road, noting they've won their last two contests here at home. There's no longer any sort of intimidation factor at play when it comes to the Blue Devils, who are mired in a disappointing campaign. Look for Wake to put up a fight here. Take Wake Forest (10*). | |||||||
02-17-21 | Drake v. Northern Iowa +6 | Top | 77-69 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
CBB Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Iowa plus the points over Drake at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Northern Iowa as it looks to earn some revenge in short order after suffering a 21-point blowout defeat on the road against Drake one week ago tonight. Northern Iowa is mired in a disappointing season overall but has held its own here at home where it has gone 6-4 straight-up. The Panthers are coming off a confidence-boosting 14-point win over Valpo last time out and catch Drake in a favorable spot here, with the Bulldogs coming off a tough 1-1 split against Loyola-Chicago over the weekend. Drake got off to a tremendous start this season but has cooled off lately, going 3-4 ATS over its last seven games, including two SU victories where it failed to cover the spread. This isn't a difficult game for Northern Iowa to get up for and it generally rises to the occasion in this matchup at home, where it has taken the last two meetings and owns a 19-3 SU record against Drake in the last 22 matchups on this floor. In what has the potential to be a game played in the 60's, I'm comfortable grabbing the generous helping of points with the underdog Panthers. Take Northern Iowa (10*). | |||||||
02-16-21 | Pelicans +1 v. Grizzlies | Top | 144-113 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Memphis at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. In our fade of the Pelicans on Sunday night in Detroit we made note of the fact that it would be a very difficult matchup to get up for. That turned out to be exactly the case as New Orleans was flat and ultimately suffered an 11-point loss. This is a different story altogether as the Pelicans always seem to get up for the Grizzlies with the Zion vs. Ja matchup taking center stage. Note that New Orleans has won four straight meetings in this series, most recently grabbing a 118-109 decision on February 6th. Also note that Stan Van Gundy-coached teams have gone 117-84 ATS off a double-digit loss and 95-67 ATS after losing three of their last four games, as is the case here with the Pelicans. While New Orleans hasn't been a good road team this season, going 4-10 SU, the Grizzlies haven't been much better at home, going 4-7 SU. I believe a letdown is in order for the Grizz after they won by 14 points in Sacramento on Sunday. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
02-16-21 | Florida +5 v. Arkansas | Top | 64-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Florida plus the points over Arkansas at 7 pm et on Tuesday. With the Gators coming off an upset loss at home against South Carolina and Arkansas off an upset win of its own at Missouri, I can understand where the oddsmakers are coming from installing Florida as an underdog in this matchup. That doesn't mean I agree with the logic, however. Note that Arkansas is a miserable 23-44 ATS after an outright underdog win and also 5-14 ATS after covering the spread in four or five of their last six contests, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Florida, meanwhile, has gone 17-7 ATS after dropping the cash in two of its last three games over the last three seasons, winning those games by an average margin of nearly 12 points. Florida has won three straight meetings with Arkansas and is 25-7 against the Razorbacks in the last 32 matchups. Take Florida (10*). | |||||||
02-15-21 | Hawks -1.5 v. Knicks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New York at 7:35 pm et on Monday. The Knicks have caught favorable matchups in their last two games, going on the road against a Bradley Beal-less Wizards squad on Friday before hosting a struggling Rockets team on Saturday. This should be a different story on Monday as Atlanta will be highly-motivated off back-to-back losses and with revenge in mind after the Knicks won by a 113-108 score in Atlanta back on January 4th (we won with New York in that game). Note that Tom Thibodeau-coached teams (the Knicks in this case) have gone 5-18 ATS in home games following a 20+ point win at home over the course of his career. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
02-15-21 | Virginia v. Florida State -1.5 | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. This is an easy game for the Seminoles to get up for as they host the most recent national champs in Virginia. The Cavaliers are coming off a 60-48 win over North Carolina on Saturday night but will face a much tougher challenge here. There's no intimidation factor at play with Florida State having taken two of the last three meetings in this series. Note that Virginia is 1-9 ATS off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons. Florida State is 11-3 ATS at home against ACC opponents over the last two seasons. Take Florida State (10*). | |||||||
02-14-21 | Lakers -2.5 v. Nuggets | 105-122 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles over Denver at 10:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Lakers in Friday's 10-point win over the Grizzlies and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them here. Los Angeles got the wake-up call it needed in the first quarter against Memphis on Friday, falling behind 20-2 out of the gates. From the second quarter on, it did what great teams do, reaching to another gear and ultimately winning the game comfortably. There's no question, we've seen the Lakers scuffing their heels lately. Remember, earlier in the week the undermanned Thunder took them to overtime in consecutive games, in Los Angeles no less. Here, I look for L.A. to rise to the occasion against a quality opponent in Denver. Note that the Lakers have taken seven of eight meetings with the Nuggets, including a 4-1 playoff series win last Summer, since the start of 2020. The Lakers have thrived on heading out on the road recently, going 14-3 ATS in their first game of a road trip over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of 12 points. The Nuggets are a miserable 11-24 ATS following back-to-back wins over the last two seasons. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-14-21 | Indiana State v. Evansville +3 | Top | 76-70 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
CBB Missouri Valley Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Evansville plus the points over Indiana State at 4 pm et on Sunday. I won't hesitate to fade Indiana State as a road favorite here noting that the Sycamores only road wins this season have come against 5-14 Illinois State and 6-13 Northern Iowa. Indiana State had its seven-game winning streak snapped in a 70-67 loss at Northern Iowa last Sunday. I can't help but think the Sycamores would have liked to get right back on the floor rather than wait a week before this game. Note that Indiana State is 0-7 ATS when playing on the road off a road loss over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15 points in those games. Meanwhile, Evansville has reeled off four straight ATS wins and checks in as a solid momentum play having gone 8-2 ATS following an ATS victory this season. The Purple Aces are one of the nation's best three-point shooting teams, ranking 18th in made three-pointers per game and T48th in three-point percentage. That sets them up well as Indiana State is 9-25 ATS in road games against opponents that average eight or more made threes per game, outscored by nearly 12 points per contest in that situation. Take Evansville (10*). | |||||||
02-14-21 | Hofstra +2 v. James Madison | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
CAA Game of the Month. My selection is on Hofstra plus the points over James Madison at 2 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up as a quick revenge spot for Hofstra after suffering a narrow 93-89 loss against the Dukes yesterday. Keep in mind, Hofstra has a number of quality wins away from home this season, including over 10-5 Monmouth and 10-4 Richmond. Despite yesterday's loss, the Pride are still 4-2 in their last six meetings with James Madison. They've gone an impressive 24-11 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in a game over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, James Madison has gone 5-12 ATS in the same situation over the last three seasons. The Dukes have now grabbed the cash in six straight games following yesterday's win but should be in tough on Sunday, noting that Hofstra hasn't dropped the cash in consecutive games since an extended ATS losing streak in the first couple of weeks of January. Take Hofstra (10*). | |||||||
02-13-21 | Villanova v. Creighton +3 | Top | 70-86 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Creighton plus the points over Villanova at 5 pm et on Saturday. With Villanova coming off a 32-point dismantling of Marquette on Wednesday. That marked the Wildcats second straight ATS win as a double-digit favorite. Here, they're obviously laying far fewer points but draw a tough matchup against Creighton. The Blue Jays have also won back-to-back games, including a 15-point win on the road against Georgetown earlier this week. Note that the Jays are 20-10 ATS after winning four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average of nearly nine points. They're also 10-2 ATS after giving up 60 points or less in a game over their last three seasons, winning those games by an average margin of 11 points. There's no intimidation factor at play here as Creighton took the last meeting in the series by 15 points last February. While Villanova will obviously be looking for revenge here, that's always a better proposition playing at home. We'll grab the points but hopefully won't need them. Take Creighton (10*). | |||||||
02-13-21 | Duke v. NC State +3.5 | 69-53 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Duke at 4 pm et on Saturday. Duke has yet to win a game this month, suffering three straight losses to fall under the .500 mark on the season. Note the Blue Devils have just one road win of note this season, that coming against 8-10 Notre Dame - the same Irish squad that Duke just lost to last time out. N.C. State is coming off a disappointing 77-68 home loss against Syracuse. That actually sets the Wolfpack up well in this one as they're 45-26 ATS the last 71 times they've followed an outright loss as a favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of nearly five points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Duke is 5-16 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in their last game, as is the case here. Take N.C. State (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -7.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Friday. This is an excellent spot to back the Lakers at a reasonably short number coming off consecutive overtime wins over the Thunder and three straight non-ATS covers. Memphis just snapped a four-game losing streak with a resounding 130-114 win over Charlotte on Wednesday but now heads to Los Angeles where it has lost its last two meetings with the Lakers by 29 and 12 points. Note that Memphis is dealing with a number of key absences, but perhaps one is flying under the radar with Desmond Bane expected to miss due to personal reasons. He has been giving the Grizzlies around 25 productive minutes per game off the bench and his absence will be felt here. Of course, there's uncertainty around Lakers star Anthony Davis' availability but that has been more than factored into this price in my opinion. Note that the Lakers have owned the Southwest Division over the last two seasons, going 21-10 ATS. They swept consecutive games in Memphis back in early January. We actually won with the Grizzlies in the second game of that set but that was after the Lakers took the first game by 14 points. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Detroit v. Cleveland State -3 | 89-83 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland State minus the points over Detroit at 9 pm et on Friday. Detroit has held its own against some quality opponents from power conferences on the road this season but has little to show for it with an 8-8 overall record. Note that the Titans' only road victories have come against 4-11 Western Michigan, 8-15 Oakland and a pair of wins against 11-10 Youngstown State. Cleveland State has suffered just one loss at home this season, that coming in the second half of a back-to-back set against 7-8 Wisconsin-Milwaukee in January. The Vikings clearly got caught looking past the Panthers at halftime in that game after beating them by double-digits the previous night and building an 11-point lead entering the second half. Since then, Cleveland State has reeled off four straight wins to improve to 14-5 on the campaign. Detroit is in a poor situation here as it checks in 8-19 ATS on the road after covering the number in three or more consecutive games. Cleveland State is 8-1 ATS the last nine times it has been favored by six points or less at home over the last two seasons. Take Cleveland State (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Clippers -6.5 v. Bulls | 125-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Chicago at 8:05 pm et on Friday. We missed the mark with the Clippers in their most recent game - a seven-point victory in Minnesota on Wednesday but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. Los Angeles got off to a very slow start in that game, perhaps caught looking past a bad T'Wolves squad that got an emotional boost from the return of Karl-Anthony Towns. With that being said, the Clips had every opportunity to earn the ATS cover were it not for a letdown in the closing minutes. Here, we're being asked to lay a much shorter number and this time I like L.A. to come away with a comfortable victory. Chicago is off a double-digit win in an underdog role against the Pelicans on Wednesday. Note that the Bulls haven't won consecutive games since reeling off three straight wins from January 17th-22nd. Fading the Bulls here is supported by a situation that has cashed at a 66-34 ATS clip over the last five seasons which involves fading underdog teams coming off a high-scoring upset win. Note that the Clips are 32-15 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in their previous contest over the last three seasons. On the flip side, the Bulls are 12-27 ATS when playing at home after an ATS win over the same stretch. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Georgia Tech v. Clemson -4.5 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Clemson minus the points over Georgia Tech at 8 pm et on Friday. This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions, not to mention the revenge angle in play. Georgia Tech has dropped four of its last six games while Clemson checks in winners of three of its last four. Of course, the last time these two teams met it was no contest as Georgia Tech rolled to a 83-65 win at home. That came during a three-game slide for Clemson - with all three games resulting in blowout defeats. We saw the Tigers break out of their shooting funk in a big way last time out as they shot better than 52% from the field in a 17-point rout of Syracuse. Defensively, they've held three of their last four opponents to sub-39% shooting. Georgia Tech, meanwhile, has cooled offensively and now faces a Clemson squad that allows just 62.6 points per game against opponents that average 72.4 ppg on the season. I expect the Tigers to own the glass in this contest, which should help them ultimately put this game away. Note that Clemson has been a strong momentum play in similar situations in recent years, having gone 13-3 ATS following a double-digit win over the last two seasons, winning those games by an average margin of nearly 12 points. Take Clemson (10*). | |||||||
02-12-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Texas-San Antonio -4 | Top | 80-84 | Push | 0 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Texas-San Antonio minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 7 pm et on Friday. Florida Atlantic had its three-game winning streak snapped in a 74-71 loss vs. Charlotte back on January 23rd. Why am I going back to a game played weeks ago, you ask? Because the Owls haven't played since due to Covid protocols. The extended layoff was probably the worst thing for FAU after it had been playing well. Note that the Owls only two road victories this season have come against 7-11 North Florida and 9-12 Florida International. UTSA has to be feeling pretty good about itself after scoring 87 and 90 points in consecutive wins at FIU last weekend. The Roadrunners have lost just one game at home this season and that came against a quality 10-6 North Texas squad back on January 8th. UTSA will be playing with double-revenge in this spot after dropping both meetings against FAU last season. Note that the Roadrunners are 18-5 ATS at home against C-USA foes over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average of eight points per game. They're also a solid momentum play having gone a perfect 6-0 ATS after covering the number in at least two consecutive games over the last three seasons, winning those contests by an average margin of over 15 points. Take UTSA (10*). | |||||||
02-11-21 | 76ers v. Blazers +5.5 | Top | 114-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Philadelphia at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. This situation sets up nicely for the Blazers as they host the red hot 76ers on Thursday night. Philadelphia opened this western road trip with a 119-111 win in Sacramento on Tuesday night, marking their second straight ATS victory and sixth in their last seven games. Note that Philadelphia is a woeful 11-26 ATS after covering the spread in two or more consecutive games over the last three seasons. The Sixers are also a long-term loser in this pointspread range on the road, going 9-21 ATS, outscored by an average of around three points per game, when laying six points or less away from home. Meanwhile, Portland has gone 105-75 ATS as a home underdog of six points or less. The Blazers are feeling some good vibes right now having won three of their last four games. They'll let weaker opponents hang around here at home, as we saw in Monday's single-digit win over the injury-depleted Magic. However, they're also capable of stepping up against quality opponents such as Philadelphia. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
02-11-21 | Colorado v. Stanford +1.5 | Top | 69-51 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Stanford plus the points over Colorado at 7 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for Stanford as it hosts 15-5 Colorado on Thursday. The Buffaloes are coming off consecutive home wins over Arizona and Oregon State but those victories were to be expected as they were favored by seven and 13 points, respectively. That sets up Colorado poorly here as it is a miserable 1-10 ATS in its last 11 road games following two or more straight home wins over the last three seasons. Going back much further the Buffs' are 62-88 ATS when going on the road off a straight-up home win. Stanford just delivered a two-game sweep of Cal and is well-positioned as a momentum play here at home, where the Cardinal have gone a perfect 6-0 ATS at home off a home conference win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 13 points per game in that situation. On the flip side, they're also 19-9 ATS after dropping the cash in two of their last three games over the last three seasons. Colorado has taken 11 of the last 17 meetings in this series but Stanford has held its own in recent years, splitting the last four matchups. Take Stanford (10*). | |||||||
02-10-21 | Missouri v. Ole Miss -1 | Top | 59-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on Ole Miss minus the points over Missouri at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I like the momentum play with Ole Miss in this one as they look to gain some traction off consecutive wins over Tennessee and Auburn. Note that the Rebels are 8-1 ATS off an outright underdog win over a conference opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by more than five points per game in that situation. They're also a solid 29-17 ATS coming off an ATS win over that same stretch. Missouri is coming off an extended run of success in SEC play but it's worth mentioning that the Tigers have gone 6-15 ATS after covering four or five of their last six games and have been outscored by nearly five points per game in that situation. They're a long-term losing proposition on the road having gone 102-134 ATS in their last 236 lined games away from home. I can't help but think a letdown could be in order for 13-3 Missouri here. Take Ole Miss (10*). | |||||||
02-10-21 | Clippers -10 v. Wolves | Top | 119-112 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Minnesota at 8:05 pm et on Wednesday. Off back-to-back losses we can anticipate the Clippers will be in a foul mood and ready to take out their frustrations on the hapless T'Wolves on Wednesday night. Last season the Clips ranked fifth in the NBA in defensive efficiency but they've taken a step back in that regard this year, middling in 15th position in that category. Here, they catch a break however, as Minnesota ranks 28th in the league in offensive efficiency with no discernible difference between their poor results on the road and at home. Interestingly, the Clips check in tops in the league in offensive efficiency on the road and despite the fact they're off consecutive losses, they rank sixth in that category over their last three contests. There's reason to believe we'll see a breakout performance from Los Angeles here. I'm fine with laying the double-digits in this spot. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-09-21 | St. John's v. Butler -2.5 | Top | 73-76 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on Butler minus the points over St. John's at 9 pm et on Tuesday. St. John's got the better of Butler earlier this season, rolling to a double-digit victory on its home floor back in January. Keep in mind, that sets up Butler nicely here noting that the Bulldogs have gone an incredible 8-1 ATS in home games when revenging a loss vs. an opponent over the last two seasons. Also note that Butler is an impressive 23-10 ATS the last 33 times it has played after losing three of its last four games - as is the case here. The Red Storm are by no means a stout defensive team and it's worth mentioning that they're 13-29 ATS when following up a game where both teams scored 80+ points. With St. John's rolling off six consecutive wins, it is certain to get Butler's best shot here. I like the Bulldogs to clamp down defensively and build off their last game - a double-digit win over Depaul on Saturday. Take Butler (10*). | |||||||
02-09-21 | West Virginia v. Texas Tech -5 | Top | 82-71 | Loss | -112 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas Tech minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Tuesday. West Virginia caught Texas Tech flat-footed in the last meeting between these two teams back on January 25th. The Red Raiders entered that game off a tough home loss to Baylor - snapping a three-game winning streak in the process. Perhaps more importantly, Texas Tech was coming off an eight-day layoff while West Virginia had just got a nice tune-up two days earlier in a 22-point rout of Kansas State. Not surprisingly, the Mountaineers shot the lights out (57.7%) but still only managed to defeat Texas Tech by a single point, at home no less. Now West Virginia finds itself in a tough spot, noting that the Mountaineers are 1-8 ATS on the road when coming off a win over a conference opponent over the last three seasons, losing those games by around 11 points per contest. They're also just 56-83 ATS when playing on the road after winning three of their last four games. This time it's Texas Tech that's fresh off a nice tune-up win over Kansas State, having defeated the Wildcats 73-62 on Saturday. That marked the Red Raiders third straight win. Look for them to make it four in a row here in convincing fashion. Take Texas Tech (10*). | |||||||
02-09-21 | Warriors v. Spurs -1.5 | 114-91 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the Spurs last night in their come-from-behind victory over the Warriors and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Warriors entered last night's game on a red hot shooting tear but certainly cooled off over the course of that defeat, ultimately shooting just 44% from the field and making 13-of-37 three-point attempts. It might be tough for them to get it right back here on Tuesday. The Spurs will be determined to keep their winning streak (currently three games) intact before they head east on a long seven-game road trip. Meanwhile, Golden State has been largely inconsistent this season and is still just a .500 team despite its strong showing in late January (and even in a nationally televised rout of the Mavs last Thursday). I believe the Spurs are once again being discounted here and we'll take advantage again. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
02-08-21 | Warriors v. Spurs +1 | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio over Golden State at 8:35 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up as a fade/letdown spot for the Warriors after an draining two-game set in Dallas which they only managed a split. Steph Curry is of course coming off a 57-point outburst in front of a national TV audience on Saturday night but that wasn't enough to secure the victory. Now the Warriors head to San Antonio to face a Spurs squad that may not draw as much motivation but is a formidable opponent nonetheless. San Antonio has won five of its last seven games overall and should be a galvanized unit off consecutive tight victories over the Timberwolves and Rockets. With this being the first of a back-to-back set here at the AT&T Center, look for the Spurs to put their best foot forward on Monday night. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
02-07-21 | Celtics v. Suns -3 | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Boston at 2:05 pm et on Sunday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Suns as they catch the Celtics coming off a big road win over the Clippers. Note that Phoenix ranks an impressive sixth in the league in defensive efficiency this season with that ranking rising to number three in the league at home. By contrast, the Celtics sit 18th in the same category on the road. The Suns are obviously a much better team with a healthy Devin Booker on the floor. Since returning to the lineup three games ago he has scored 24, 25 and 23 points despite topping out at 31 minutes. Look for him to get extended a little more in this game on Sunday afternoon. While the C's are off a big win, they've actually posted just two victories in their last five games overall. Take Phoenix (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |