Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
02-01-22 | Warriors v. Spurs +2.5 | Top | 124-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Golden State at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Spurs essentially 'punted' Sunday's game in Phoenix, sitting Jakob Poeltl, Dejounte Murray and Derrick White, yet still managed to give the Suns a serious run in an eventual five-point loss. Here, the shoe is on the other foot, with the Warriors in a back-to-back spot off a double-digit win in Houston. Klay Thompson won't play on Tuesday. The Warriors have played at least every other day since January 9th so it's obviously been a bit of a grueling schedule. As much as they would like to get some revenge for an earlier home loss against the Spurs, I'm not convinced we'll see them go 'flat out' in this one. While the Spurs are just 10-16 at home this season, they've actually outscored their opponents by 0.7 points on average. Having faced the Grizzlies, Bulls and Suns over their last three games, the Spurs are certainly battle-tested heading into this one. I look for them to give the Warriors all they can handle on Tuesday. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
02-01-22 | Boston College v. Virginia -8.5 | Top | 55-67 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Boston College at 6 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavaliers are coming off a tough road loss at Notre Dame on Saturday. They've now alternated wins and losses over their last eight games and I expect them to successfully bounce back once again here as they host Boston College on Tuesday. The Eagles delivered a double-digit win over Pitt on Sunday. I simply don't feel Boston College's ceiling in terms of offensive production is high enough to pose much of a challenge against the Cavaliers defense here. The Eagles generally play at Virginia's preferred pace. Boston College has actually relied quite heavily on getting to the free throw line for offensive production this season, averaging 18 attempts per game. Virginia has been stingy in that department, however, particularly here at home where they play tough defense but do so with plenty of discipline, sending opponents to the free throw line just nine times per contest. Virginia certainly isn't known for its offense but it does come into this game having shot better than 45% in three of its last four games, scoring 63 points or more in all four games. I'm expecting the Cavaliers to get well into the 60's again in this one and that will prove to be enough for the win and cover. Take Virginia (10*). | |||||||
01-31-22 | Kings +5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 96-116 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Kings have endured a miserable road trip so far, losing all four games, but managing to go 2-2 ATS. They enter Monday's game on a season-long six-game losing streak but I fully expect them to hang tough against the struggling Knicks in this one. Keep in mind, Sacramento has taken quality opponents in the Bucks and most recently the 76ers down to the wire on this trip. Here, they catch a Knicks squad that has lost six of its last seven games, going 1-2 SU and ATS as a favorite over that stretch. On nine previous occasions, the Kings have played on the road off a straight-up loss but ATS cover as an underdog over the lat two seasons, and in that situation they've lost by just 2.3 points on average. That's certainly an improvement over their overall performance away from home this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 8.2 points while going 6-17 SU. On the flip side, the Knicks have only managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 1.8 points when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (60-game sample size). Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
01-30-22 | New Orleans +1.5 v. McNeese State | Top | 84-78 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
CBB Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over McNeese State at 6 pm et on Sunday. This is a big revenge spot for New Orleans after it suffered a strange 92-82 loss to McNeese State back on January 6th - a game in which UNO knocked down just one three-pointer and one that saw a whopping 88 combined free throw attempts from the two teams. Since then, New Orleans has reeled off seven straight wins while McNeese State 3-4 SU and 2-4 ATS in lined contests. It's also worth noting that New Orleans turned the basketball over 18 times compared to McNeese State's 13 in that earlier meeting. On the season, UNO averages two fewer turnovers per contest. New Orleans has consistently drummed this McNeese State defense, putting up 82, 99 and 82 points in the last three meetings, winning two of those games. Simply put, too much weight is being placed on that earlier matchup between these two. Look for New Orleans' talent and experience to win out in this one. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
01-29-22 | West Virginia +8.5 v. Arkansas | 68-77 | Loss | -112 | 4 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on West Virginia plus the points over Arkansas at 2 pm et on Saturday. I like the way this one sets up for the Mountaineers as they look to snap a four-game skid. They should be happy to get out of the Big 12 for a game at least, even though they catch Arkansas off five consecutive victories. Give West Virginia credit for its 13-6 overall record as it has faced the 20th toughest schedule in the country (according to KenPom). Here, we'll note that these two teams average an identical number of made threes per game despite West Virginia attempting two fewer per contest. The Mountaineers also send opponents to the free throw line three fewer times per game and force three more turnovers per contest. (despite playing at a slower pace). I simply don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as the oddsmakers would lead you to believe. Take West Virginia (9*). | |||||||
01-28-22 | Jazz +4.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Jazz continue to struggle, losers of nine of their last 11 games entering Friday's showdown in Memphis. They check in off consecutive hard-fought losses against the Suns. While they're on a three-game losing streak, those three losses have come by only a combined 16 points. Utah is always tough on Memphis. In fact, you would have to go all the way back to 2017 to find the last time the Grizzlies were favored in a matchup in this series. Memphis was red hot in late December into early January. However, it checks in just 3-3 SU and ATS over its last six contests. Over that stretch, the Grizzlies were held to 91 points or less on two occasions. On the flip side of that, Memphis has allowed north of 100 points in 10 straight and 13 of its last 14 games. Here, we'll note that the Jazz are a long-term 136-99 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of their last six games, which is the case here. I don't expect them to let the Grizzlies off the hook easy as they look to open this road trip on a positive note. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
01-28-22 | Wyoming v. Air Force +8 | 63-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Wyoming at 6 pm et on Friday. Tough spot for Wyoming here as it just had its six-game winning streak snapped in a narrow 65-62 loss at Boise State two nights ago (we won with the Cowboys plus the points in that game). Air Force has certainly been a 'tough out' in Mountain West Conference play and checks in riding a 6-1 ATS hot streak, including a 10-point win as a short underdog at San Jose State two nights ago. The Falcons can certainly be a frustrating team to play against, as the Cowboys found out first hand in a 72-69 loss as a road favorite here in Colorado Springs last January (before responding with a 19-point rout on the same floor two nights later). With a big showdown against Colorado State coming up at home on Monday, I see this as a spot where the Cowboys simply look to secure a win and move on with winning by margin being of little consequence. Take Air Force (8*). | |||||||
01-25-22 | Fresno State v. New Mexico +5.5 | 65-60 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Mexico plus the points over Fresno State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. The New Mexico Lobos are coming off two of their best efforts of the season but unfortunately have nothing to show for it as they fell in consecutive road games against Colorado State and Wyoming. We actually missed the mark fading the Lobos on Saturday at Wyoming, as they took the Cowboys down to the wire in an eventual 93-91 loss. I won't hesitate to switch gears and back New Mexico here as I feel this is a winnable home game against a Fresno State squad that had been playing a little over its head in my opinion prior to last Friday's loss at Nevada (we won with the Wolf Pack in that game). To say the Lobos are hungry would be an understatement as they haven't tasted victory since way back on December 21st against Norfolk State. Save for an ugly 29-point loss at UNLV on January 12th there's no shame in any of their recent losses, however. I actually like the fact that New Mexico played, and excelled offensively, on Saturday while Fresno State has been idle since Friday's loss at Nevada. The Bulldogs are just 1-2 on the road in Mountain West Conference play with their lone win coming by five points at UNLV. I believe the Lobos can make the Bulldogs uncomfortable with their up-tempo style and are brimming with confidence after Saturday's performance. Take New Mexico (8*). | |||||||
01-25-22 | Kings +8.5 v. Celtics | 75-128 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics are coming off a blowout win in Washington on Sunday but stringing together strong performances hasn't exactly been commonplace for them this season. The Kings have posted two of their six highest-scoring games of the season over their last two contests, most recently falling just short in Milwaukee on Saturday, losing by six points in a wild, high-scoring affair. Sacramento has proven to be a tough out against the Celtics in recent years. You would have to go back seven meetings, all the way to March of 2018 to find the last time the Celtics defeated the Kings by more than six points. In fact, the Kings have won the last two meetings in this series outright and haven't lost to the Celtics by more than a point in any of the last four matchups between the two teams. Despite their miserable 6-14 road record, the Kings have only been outscored by 5.8 points on average. As for the Celtics, they're just 11-14 at TD Garden this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.2 points. I don't see this as a real 'get up' spot for Boston as plays this single home game - a rather uninspiring Tuesday night game against a non-conference, non-playoff team in Sacramento - before heading out for a back-to-back road set in Atlanta and New Orleans later this week. Take Sacramento (9*). | |||||||
01-25-22 | Lakers v. Nets +2.5 | Top | 106-96 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Fading the Nets fell just short of my card on Sunday, a regretful decision as they ended up losing by double-digits as a short underdog in Minnesota. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back Brooklyn as it looks to bounce back from that loss at home against the Lakers. Simply put, I'm not buying what Los Angeles is selling right now. Yes, the Lakers are expected to have Anthony Davis back on the floor for this game but how much he can contribute in his first game back remains to be seen. Los Angeles is fresh off a beatdown in Miami on Sunday (it ultimately rallied late to make the final score far less unflattering). The Lakers are just 2-5 SU and ATS over their last seven games and find themselves four games under .500 on the road. The Nets are a woeful 5-17 ATS here in Brooklyn this season but the problem certainly hasn't been failing to cover spreads in an underdog role. In fact, the Nets have been listed as a home underdog just once previously this season and ultimately won that game 114-105 over the 76ers back on December 16th. It does appear that Brooklyn may have put its pointspread woes behind it in the short-term picture, entering this game having gone 4-3 ATS over its last seven contests. Of course, the Nets won't have Kyrie Irving for this game, as is the case when they play at home, but that's certainly been factored into this line. I look for James Harden to relish the opportunity to step up, especially off a poor performance on Sunday in Minnesota, and dispatch the struggling Lakers. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
01-25-22 | Clippers +4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 116-115 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. So many people wrote off the Clippers after Paul George was lost to injury, with Kawhi Leonard of course already sidelined for the season. This is a well-coached team that is by no means devoid of talent, however, and we've certainly seen that as they've gone 5-3 ATS over their last eight games, including an upset win in Philadelphia on this road trip. The Wizards have been a train-wreck from an ATS perspective, going 1-9 ATS over their last 10 games. While this should be an ideal bounce-back spot in theory as they come in off of three straight home losses and try to salvage the finale of their current homestand, it's also a prime bounce-back spot for the Clippers coming off an eight-point loss in a sleepy matinee affair against the Knicks on Sunday in Manhattan. Here, we'll note that the Clips are 29-16 ATS when playing on the road off a loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.4 points in that situation. As for the Wizards, they're a woeful 7-15 ATS as a favorite this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
01-22-22 | New Mexico v. Wyoming -10 | 91-93 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wyoming minus the points over New Mexico at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. New Mexico has quietly been a force ATS-wise this season, going 11-5 ATS in lined contests this season including underdog covers in its last two games against Boise State and Colorado State. The Lobos have faced one of the toughest schedules in the country this season, ranking 76th in adjusted strength of schedule according to KenPom and it doesn't get any easier here as they go up against a red hot Wyoming squad. I like the fact that this line has moved in our favor. The Cowboys have gone a perfect 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, essentially playing every other day since the middle of the month. Here, they face a Lobos squad that is sending opponents to the free throw line a whopping 23 times per game this season. New Mexico has faced an average of just 20 three-point attempts per game and figures to get a bit of a 'shock to the system' here against Wyoming as the Cowboys hoist up 28 three-point attempts per game at home, knocking down an average of 12 per game. Wyoming took last year's two meetings in this series by nine and 12-point margins. Look for the Cowboys to extend their dominance of the Lobos with a convincing win here. Take Wyoming (8*). | |||||||
01-22-22 | Houston Baptist v. Texas A&M Corpus Christi -12.5 | Top | 77-71 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on Texas A&M Corpus Christi minus the points over Houston Baptist at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. We won with Texas A&M Corpus Christi last Saturday as the Islanders rolled to a 16-point win over Incarnate Word. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play this afternoon as they stay at home for a fourth straight game to host lowly Houston Baptist. The Islanders are coming off a narrow four-point win over McNeese State on Thursday. That tight result wasn't all that surprising as it was a quick rematch after the Islanders won the first meeting by 13 points back on January 8th. Here, Corpus Christi will be getting its first look at Houston Baptist this season. The Huskies own a 5-10 overall record this season but that's a little flattering as four of their five victories came against non-Division I opponents. The other came by just three points against aforementioned 4-15 Incarnate Word on Thursday night. While the Huskies have been playing a little better lately, I don't believe it will be enough to stay within arm's reach of the Islanders on Saturday. Take Texas A&M Corpus Christi (10*). | |||||||
01-21-22 | Fresno State v. Nevada | 73-77 | Win | 100 | 17 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nevada over Fresno State at 11 pm et on Friday. Nevada has been playing uneven basketball lately, alternating losses and wins over its last five games. Here, I look for the Wolf Pack to make a statement against a red hot Fresno State team that has won three games in a row in conference play. It's not as if those three consecutive wins by the Bulldogs were a big accomplishment as they came at home against San Jose State and Utah State and on the road against UNLV. Note that Fresno has faced the 178th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Nevada checks in having faced the 66th toughest. These two teams play at a much different tempo and with the Wolf Pack having the benefit of playing at home, I believe they can impose their will. Note that they've gone 30-15 ATS the last 45 times they've come off a home loss against a conference opponent and 10-1 ATS the last 11 times they've come off two losses in their last three games, as is the case here. Credit the Bulldogs for racking up some wins lately, but I still think they're a step below Nevada in the Mountain West. Take Nevada (9*). | |||||||
01-21-22 | Nets v. Spurs +3 | Top | 117-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:40 pm et on Friday. We won with the Nets as a short underdog in Washington two nights ago and were fortunate to do so as they did everything they could to cough up the lead in the fourth quarter. Here, I'll go the other way and fade the Nets as they continue their road trip in San Antonio. The Spurs will be looking to avenge a 121-119 overtime loss in Brooklyn back on January 9th. They were in a tough spot on that day, playing near the end of a long eastern road trip but battled hard and ultimately forced overtime before falling by a bucket. Here, we'll note that San Antonio is 22-11 when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 1.0 point on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Nets are a woeful 3-13 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, outscored by 4.7 points on average in that situation. While the Spurs are just 2-3 on their current homestand there's been no real shame in losses to the Rockets (who have been playing their best ball lately), Cavs and Suns. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
01-20-22 | CS-Fullerton v. Cal-Irvine -6 | Top | 65-63 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Big West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Cal-Irvine minus the points over Cal-State Fullerton at 10 pm et on Thursday. This price has shifted right into our lap on Thursday as the Anteaters look to snap out of a 1-4 slide at home against red hot Cal-State Fullerton. Irvine started the season with a very manageable schedule but things have gotten a lot tougher lately. They're coming off an outright loss by double-digits at Hawaii one week ago tonight so they've had ample time to sit and stew over that setback and get ready for this very winnable matchup against Fullerton. The Titans have won five straight games but that's had as much to do with a weak schedule rather than anything else. While Irvine was projected by most to finish top-two in the Big West at the outset of the season, Fullerton was pegged as a middle-of-the-pack team. There's certainly still time for that to play out and I look for the Anteaters to take a step in the right direction with a convincing win on Thursday. Take Cal-Irvine (10*). | |||||||
01-19-22 | Magic +12 v. 76ers | 110-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with the Magic in their last game as they were never all that close in an eventual 10-point loss at home against the surging Blazers. That final score was actually flattering as the Blazers absolutely took the game over in the second and third quarters. Here, I look for the Magic to bounce back with a more competitive effort as they hit the road to face the 76ers. Philadelphia has gone 2-0 against Orlando this season but both previous meetings were competitive with the Sixers winning by five points here at home and 10 on the road (Philadelphia pulled away late for the latter victory - we actually won with the Sixers in that game). Orlando is as healthy as it has been in quite some time and checks in having posted a winning record ATS (8-7) over its last 15 contests. The 76ers have been performing well ATS also but we faded them on Monday in Washington (they lost by 19 points) and I think they might have a tough time getting up for this midweek matchup against a lowly opponent. Note that Philadelphia is just 7-11 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by only 2.6 points on average. Take Orlando (9*). | |||||||
01-19-22 | Nets +1.5 v. Wizards | 119-118 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a big ticket in support of the Wizards in Monday's eventual rout of the 76ers here at home. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade the Wiz as they look to make it two wins in a row against top Eastern Conference opponents at home against the Nets on Wednesday. Brooklyn is coming off a tough road loss in Cleveland on Monday. There's no shame in losing to the Cavs these days though as they're playing as well as anyone in the league, perhaps with the exception of the Grizzlies, right now. Even with Kevin Durant sidelined, I look for the Nets to bounce back in this one. Brooklyn is certainly accustomed to playing without one (if not two) of the 'Big Three'. The Nets have of course been at their best on the road this season where they're 15-5 SU and 11-9 ATS, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.2 points. We're able to back them at a discount here as they've gone a woeful 4-7 SU over their last 11 contests. I see this as a big step-up spot, however, before they continue their trip with a couple of tricky Western Conference matchups with the Spurs and T'Wolves. Here, we'll note that the Wizards are a woeful 7-20 ATS the last 27 times they've come off an outright underdog win by 15 points or more, as is the case here, outscored by 9.5 points on average in that spot. Take Brooklyn (9*). | |||||||
01-19-22 | George Washington v. St. Joe's -8.5 | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. Joseph's minus the points over George Washington at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The oddsmakers missed the mark badly setting St. Joe's as mid-range favorites at home against La Salle two nights ago - a game the Hawks lost outright by double-digits. After a hot ATS start to the season, St. Joe's has actually dropped the cash in three straight games. I expect the Hawks to right the ship here, however. George Washington is in a clear letdown spot here off a big upset win over George Mason. That victory came at home. The road has been a nightmare for GWU as it has gone 1-7, outscored by an average margin of 11.3 points. The Colonials have faced the nation's 237th toughest schedule according to KenPom. We found out first hand just how bad they can be in a 27-point rout at the hands of VCU just over a week ago. Take St. Joseph's (10*). | |||||||
01-18-22 | South Carolina +12.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 59-75 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
SEC Game of the Month. My selection is on South Carolina plus the points over Arkansas at 7 pm et on Tuesday. This line has been bet up a couple of points since opening to the point that I like the way this one sets up for the Gamecocks, or perhaps moreso as a fade of Arkansas. The Hogs held Missouri to a ridiculous 43 points two games back and followed that up with an upset win at LSU on Saturday. That leaves them in a clear letdown spot here as they host South Carolina which is coming off back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Florida. While the Gamecocks have been wildly inconsistent this season, prolonged ATS losing streaks haven't been part of it. They enter this game on a season-long two-game ATS skid - one that I expect them to break tonight. By contrast, Arkansas is coming off consecutive ATS wins for the first time this season. Here, we'll note that Arkansas has gone 18-35 ATS in its last 53 games when coming off an outright upset win over a conference opponent, outscored by 2.3 points on average in that spot. South Carolina won outright as a 6.5-point underdog the last time these two teams met on this floor two years ago. While I'm not calling for an outright Gamecocks win here, I do expect them to keep it close. Take South Carolina (10*). | |||||||
01-17-22 | Blazers v. Magic +2 | 98-88 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Monday. I'm not buying the line move here with the Magic shifting from a short favorite to a short underdog. Yes, the Blazers are coming off an upset win in Washington (without Bradley Beal) on Saturday but they're still just 3-14 on the road this season. They're expected to get C.J. McCollum back on Monday night which obviously gives them a boost, but he's likely to be limited in his first game back. Wins have been few and far between for the Magic but they're just one game removed from posting an impressive victory in Charlotte on Friday. They've been slowly getting back some of their injured players with Jalen Suggs returning in that win over Charlotte and proceeding to score 28 points and add nine assists and nine rebounds in 45 minutes in two games. As bad as the Magic have been in recent years they've actually outscored opponents by 0.8 points on average when the line is between +3 and -3 over the last three seasons. The Blazers are off a win as I mentioned but they're also just one game removed from giving up 140 points on a ridiculous 63% shooting in a 32-point loss to the Nuggets. The Magic are by no means the Nuggets but I do expect them to have a good night against the Blazers on Monday. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
01-17-22 | Delaware v. Northeastern +2 | 82-76 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northeastern plus the points over Delaware at 7 pm et on Monday. Most had Northeastern to finish second, perhaps third in the Colonial Athletic Association this season. Things haven't gone the Huskies way, however, with some bad luck (and admittedly poor execution) leading to a 6-10 overall record and an stunning 0-5 in-conference mark. I believe everything is still in front of them, however, with five of their next seven games coming at home, but the turnaround needs to start now. Delaware has more or less had 'luck' on its side over the course of the season and particularly of late. The Blue Hens last two wins came by a combined five points. To take an honest look at their resume so far this season, there really aren't many overly impressive wins. Note that they've faced the 233rd toughest schedule according to KenPom. Northeastern, on the other hand, ranks 153rd in terms of adjusted strength of schedule. Looking to avenge a 2-0 series sweep at the hands of Delaware last year and noting that the last time the Blue Hens posted back-to-back victories in this series was way back in 2014, I'll back the Huskies to come up big on their home floor on Monday. Take Northeastern (8*). | |||||||
01-17-22 | 76ers v. Wizards +3.5 | Top | 98-117 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Philadelphia at 2:10 pm et on Monday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Wizards in this game as they look to bounce back from Saturday's disappointing home loss to the undermanned Blazers, and snap a two-game skid in this series with the 76ers. Philadelphia is coming off an outright underdog win in Miami on Saturday. I don't need to tell you that wasn't really a true 'upset'. The 76ers are one of the Eastern Conference's best teams and they're coming off consecutive wins over the Celtics and aforementioned Heat. I believe a letdown may be in order here, however. While the Sixers are 16-8 on the road this season they've actually only outscored opponents by 1.6 points on average. Meanwhile, the Wizards are in one of their most favorable spots here, having gone 33-19 ATS in their last 52 home games when coming off a loss. Bradley Beal may be back for the Wiz this afternoon but even if he's not I like the way this spot sets up. Consider it a bonus if he's able to go. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
01-15-22 | Cavs v. Thunder +5.5 | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Cleveland at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. You would think this would be a clear letdown spot for the Thunder off Thursday's big upset win in Brooklyn (we won with OKC in that game) but I don't see it. Note that Oklahoma City checks in 19-8 ATS when coming off an outright underdog win on the road over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 points in that situation. The Cavs are coming off three straight wins on their current road trip. They've covered the spread in consecutive games but it's worth noting that it marks their first ATS winning streak since reeling off six straight covers from December 8th to 18th. The Cavs actually check into this one just 3-7 ATS over their last 10 contests. Meanwhile, OKC has been one of the best bets in the NBA for nearly a month now, having gone 12-3 ATS over its last 15 games. Their two highest scoring performances of the season have come in their last two games as they put up 118 and 130 points. No reason to shy away from the Thunder here. Take Oklahoma City (9*). | |||||||
01-15-22 | Raptors +7.5 v. Bucks | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Milwaukee at 6:40 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors were in a tough spot last night, laying points on the road against a less-than-inspiring opponent in the Pistons after a hard-fought four-point loss at home to the Suns two nights earlier. Perhaps not surprisingly, they weren't able to get up for the game and lost in a game that was never all that competitive. Here, I expect a strong bounce-back performance from the Raps in Milwaukee. The Bucks drilled the Warriors two nights ago but are still just 2-4 SU and ATS over their last six games. Going back to December 8th, they've had just two ATS winning streaks. The Raps meanwhile, have failed to cover the spread (using the closing number) in three straight games, matching their longest such stretch of the season. Interestingly the last time they failed to do so they defeated the Bucks by a 97-93 score as a 4.5-point underdog back on December 2nd. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
01-15-22 | Incarnate Word v. Texas A&M Corpus Christi -13.5 | Top | 64-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Southland Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas A&M Corpus Christi minus the points over Incarnate Word at 4:30 pm et on Saturday. The Texas A&M Corpus Christi Islanders have quietly been one of the best bets in the nation this season, going 10-3 ATS. They're in a smash spot on Saturday as they host 4-13 Incarnate Word. The Cardinals are actually coming off a win last Saturday but that came at the expense of 4-9 Houston Baptist. Incarnate Word's three previous wins this season came against the likes of Dallas Christian, 5-12 Grambling State and Our Lady of the Lake. The Cardinals have recently lost games by 31 points at home against Nicholls State, 45 points at Texas, 30 points at Rice and 33 points at Abilene-Christian. The Islanders have plenty of runway in front of them right now, with their next three games coming at home against Incarnate Word, McNeese State and Houston Baptist as they look to climb from third spot in the Southland Conference. Take Texas A&M Corpus Christi (10*). | |||||||
01-14-22 | Fresno State v. UNLV +2 | Top | 73-68 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
CBB Mountain West Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Fresno State at 11 pm et on Friday. This line has been moving in Fresno State's favor which is not all that surprising ahead of this Mountain West clash on Friday night in Sin City. Fresno State is off to a stellar 13-4 start this season but a closer inspection indicates we should perhaps pump the brakes a little. Note that the Bulldogs rank 228th in the nation in terms of strength of schedule (according to KenPom). Not only that but they sit 354th in the country in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). While that's not a reason for concern in and of itself, the fact that they shoot just a shade over 40% from the field on the road and average only six made threes per game is. Keep in mind, they continue to play without transfer Jemarl Baker, who was supposed to be a big part of their offense this season and contributed 30 points in only 41 minutes in his final two games before injuring his knee back in December. UNLV is coming off an 85-point explosion in a 29-point rout of New Mexico last time out. The Runnin' Rebels have scored 80+ points in each of their last three games and check in 5-1 SU And 4-2 ATS over their last six contests. The Rebels shouldn't have to approach that lofty point total here noting that the winner in this matchup has reached 68 points or less in each of the last three meetings, with the Rebels winning two of those games (both here at home). Note that UNLV ranks a respectable 125th in the country in terms of strength of schedule. With a tough three-game stretch on the road on deck, earning a victory here is critical for the Rebels. While they're just one game removed from a seven-point loss against San Diego State, I think it's actually impressive that they 'only' lost by seven despite shooting sub-30% from the field. Give them credit for holding each of their last three opponents to 36% or worse shooting. If UNLV can find a way to push the pace a little bit and make the Bulldogs uncomfortable, I'm confident it can find success on Friday night. Take UNLV (10*). | |||||||
01-13-22 | St. Mary's v. Pepperdine +13 | 77-62 | Loss | -113 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pepperdine plus the points over St. Mary's at 11 pm et on Thursday. You would have to go back eight meetings in this series to find the last time either team was able to win by a double-digit margin, yet that's the pointspread range in this one. The Gaels check in off a tough nine-point loss at BYU two nights ago and may not have an easy time getting up for this road affair against a 6-12 Pepperdine squad. They should be careful, however, noting that the Waves got the better of them in a 60-58 win on this floor last season. While Pepperdine has gone a miserable 2-7 ATS on the road this season, it has more than held its own here at home where it is 5-2 ATS in lined contests. It's the defensive end of the floor where the Gaels obviously hold a significant advantage in this game. With that being said, coming off that low-scoring 52-43 loss to BYU it's worth mentioning that St. Mary's is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after allowing 55 points or less, actually outscored by an average margin of 6.4 points in that spot. Take Pepperdine (9*). | |||||||
01-13-22 | Thunder +9.5 v. Nets | 130-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. The Nets are coming off a blowout win over the Bulls last night. Now they're back home, where they've been an awful bet this season to host one of the best spread-covering teams in the league, but one that carries a poor reputation in the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder are coming off a season-high 118-point performance in a narrow loss to the Wizards two nights ago. While they've lost five games in a row, they've actually gone 4-1 ATS over that stretch. To that point, they're 5-14 SU on the road this season but 12-7 ATS. The Nets are 3-16 ATS as a home favorite this season and playing on the second of back-to-back nights, off a lopsided win, against a non-conference opponent that doesn't draw much inspiration in the Thunder, I have a hard time buying into them as a near-double-digit favorite. Take Oklahoma City (9*). | |||||||
01-13-22 | Wolves +6 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. I love the way this one sets up for the Timberwolves. They're coming off a loss as a favorite in New Orleans two nights ago, snapping their four-game winning streak. Note that Minnesota is 23-12 ATS in its last 35 games coming off a road loss, as is the case here, outscored by just 3.8 points on average in that spot. It may come as a surprise but despite their 9-11 SU record on the road, the Wolves have gone 13-7 ATS. That's despite all of their key contributors in and out of the lineup due to illness or injury. The Grizzlies are in high favor right now, having won seven straight games, culminating with a 116-108 win over the mighty Warriors two nights ago. Not surprisingly, bettors are lining up to back them on Thursday and we've seen this line rise by a full point since opening (at the time of writing). I like the Grizzlies, but I like backing them a whole lot more in the role of underdog or short favorite. That's simply not the case here, noting as well that they lost the most recent meeting in this series by 43 points back in late November and their last two wins over the T'Wolves have come by relatively short margins of seven and four points. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
01-13-22 | Florida International +16.5 v. UAB | 56-84 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida International plus the points over UAB at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. This is just too many points to be giving a 10-5 Florida International squad that has bounced back just fine following a dismal 2020-21 campaign. While the Panthers are 0-4 ATS in true road games this season, those four spread losses have come by a combined 6.5 points. They actually haven't managed to cover the spread in any of their last seven contests - a big reason why we're working with an inflated number here as bettors have seemingly jumped at the opportunity to lay the points with UAB (the line has risen considerably since opening). UAB checks in 10-4 ATS in lined games this season but it hasn't faced a tough schedule by any means, checking in ranked 282nd in strength of schedule according to KenPom. There are a couple of reasons why I believe the Panthers can give the Blazers a run in this one. First of all, FIU poses a different sort of challenge than what UAB has been accustomed to facing as it hoists up 30 three-point attempts per game this season (UAB has faced an average of 20). The Panthers have done a nice job of distributing the basketball as well, interestingly they've 16 assists per game - two more than UAB despite making an average of four fewer field goals per contest. I don't see this situation setting up all that differently than when the Blazers suffered a two-point loss against San Francisco earlier this season and then returned home and beat East Tennessee State by a modest 14-point margin. Here, we find the Blazers back home off a stunning upset loss against Rice. They'll simply be looking to get back to their winning ways with margin of victory being of little consequence. FIU boasts plenty of returning talent from the team that beat UAB by 25 points (albeit at home) last season. Take Florida International (8*). | |||||||
01-13-22 | Detroit +1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 60-62 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
CBB Horizon League Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over IUPU-Fort Wayne at 7 pm et on Thursday. We've seen a considerable line move toward Fort Wayne and why not? After all it is coming off consecutive road wins over Youngstown State and Robert Morris and has actually won five games in a row ATS. Let's not get too carried away though as Fort Wayne checks in ranked a miserable 325th in strength of schedule according to KenPom. While Detroit hasn't exactly faced a who's who of the country's best teams, it does rank considerably higher than Fort Wayne in that department at 180th. Detroit has played just one game since the holiday break, securing a 25-point win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee last Friday. The Titans are 5-1 SU and ATS over their last six contests and perhaps present a bit of a 'shock to the system' for the Fort Wayne defense here, noting that Detroit averages a whopping 28 three-point attempts per game this season. I don't anticipate much different that we saw in this matchup last year, when Detroit knocked down 28 three-pointers on its way to 82-72 and 83-56 victories over Fort Wayne. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
01-12-22 | Maryland +6 v. Northwestern | Top | 94-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
CBB Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Maryland plus the points over Northwestern at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not buying into the considerable line move here as I'm anticipating a tightly-contested affair between these two teams, both coming off three consecutive losses and both off hard-fought losses against seemingly superior in-conference opponents. Note that the Terps have faced the 43rd toughest schedule in the nation to date according to KenPom while Northwestern, picked by many to finish near the bottom of the Big Ten standings at the outset of the season, checks in ranked 178th in strength of schedule. Maryland has had an issue with turning the ball over this season but has cleaned that up a bit lately, with 12 or fewer turnovers in four straight games (after a stretch of 14 or more in four consecutive contests). Of course, this is an in-season revenge game for Maryland after it dropped a 67-61 decision at home against Northwestern back on December 5th. The underdog has delivered the cash in three straight meetings in this series while Maryland has come away victorious in five of its last six trips to Northwestern. Here, we'll also note that the Terps are an impressive 14-2 ATS the last 16 times they've come off three or more consecutive losses, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 12.9 points on average in that spot. Take Maryland (10*). | |||||||
01-12-22 | LSU +2.5 v. Florida | 64-58 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on LSU plus the points over Florida at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I'm not ready to buy into the Gators being favored in this game, even with Xavier Pinson sidelined for LSU. Florida has managed just three victories in its last eight games and those came against the likes of North Florida, South Florida and Stony Brook. The Gators stepped up in class twice last week and gave up 83 and 85 points in consecutive losses against Alabama and Auburn. LSU has just one loss on its resume - that coming in a game where it shot a miserable 28.6% from the field on the road against aforementioned Auburn. After dropping each of its last two meetings with Florida over the last two years, it obviously has a lot to prove in this contest. The Tigers have faced the tougher schedule of the two teams this season and I like the way the numbers stack up in their favor here as well. Of note, the Tigers allow two more made three-pointers per game than the Gators, but also face 11 additional attempts per contest. Similarly, they turn the ball over once more per game but also play at a faster pace four more field goal attempts per game than the Gators. While LSU enters this contest absolutely locked in defensively, Florida has allowed two of its last three opponents to shoot 51.9% or better from the field. Take LSU (8*). | |||||||
01-11-22 | Illinois v. Nebraska +13.5 | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nebraska plus the points over Illinois at 8:30 pm et on Tuesday. This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions but I don't expect the Cornhuskers to go away quietly at home on Tuesday night. While they do check in having lost three games in a row but have actually managed to go 3-1 ATS over their last four contests. Illinois is the superior team on paper, there's no question about that, and the Illini have faced the 41st-toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom. However, it's not as if Nebraska has been facing cupcake opponents - the Huskers are top-80 in the nation in terms of strength of schedule. Illinois has relied heavily on the three-ball to support its offense this season but that's nothing out of the ordinary for Nebraska as it has faced a whopping 28 three-point attempts per game this season (Illinois averages 26). Note that both teams average an identical number of free throw attempts per game while Nebraska actually turns the ball over two fewer times while forcing five additional turnovers per contest compared to the Illini. The last meeting in this series went the Illini's way by 16 points, however Nebraska is actually 2-1 SU in the last three matchups between the two teams in Lincoln with its lone loss coming by just five points last season. Take Nebraska (9*). | |||||||
01-11-22 | Iowa State v. Kansas -11.5 | 61-62 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Iowa State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The bloom appears to be off the rose, so to speak, for the Iowa State Cyclones, who have now dropped two of their last three games following a perfect 12-0 start to the season. We've seen this line move a couple of points in their favor but I believe it's the wrong move. Kansas is coming off a disappointing loss of its own, falling by eight points at Texas Tech on Saturday. There's really no harm in an early conference loss for a team like the Jayhawks that of course has national title aspirations. When these two teams met on this floor last season, Kansas was favored by 16.5 points and won by 33. The Jayhawks also took their road matchup against the Cyclones by 14 points, covering the -11.5 point spread. You would have go to back six meetings to 2019 to find the last time Iowa State was remotely competitive in this matchup. Yes, the Cyclones got off to a tremendous start this season but their 212th-ranked strength of schedule (according to KenPom) leaves a lot to be desired. By contrast, Kansas has faced the nation's 31st toughest schedule. The Jayhawks have an embarrassment of riches in terms of depth and talent and I expect that to shine through on Tuesday. Take Kansas (9*). | |||||||
01-11-22 | Suns v. Raptors +4.5 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Suns simply haven't been the same spread-covering juggernaut they were last season, checking in at 30-9 SU but just 21-18 ATS so far this season. They enter Tuesday's matchup in Toronto having gone just 4-5 ATS over their last nine games and an even 9-9 ATS over their last 18 contests. The Raptors on the other hand have reeled off six consecutive wins and own a terrific 12-3 ATS mark over their last 15 games. There was a sense of 'here we go again' in Toronto early in the campaign following last year's championship hangover, but credit the Raps for coming together and turning things around, despite plenty of key absences along the way. They're relatively healthy now and will have revenge on their minds here after getting swept in the two-game season series with the Suns last year. Keep in mind, they were competitive in both games, losing by four points here at home and eight on the road. Phoenix managed to go 2-0 ATS in those contests thanks to laying 3.5 points or less in both. While most will expect a big bounce-back performance from the Suns off Sunday's blowout loss at home against the Heat, I'm no so easily convinced. They've shot 41.1% or worse from the field in three of their last five games and have also inexplicably allowed two of their three highest point totals of the season over that stretch. After this game the Raptors will have a couple of days off before a five-game road trip. While I'm not going to make a habit of fading the Suns (we've actually cashed numerous tickets in support of them this season), I do think this is a favorable spot to do so. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
01-11-22 | George Washington +17 v. VCU | Top | 57-84 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
CBB Atlantic-10 Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on George Washington plus the points over VCU at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We've cashed a couple of tickets with VCU this season, including one in its thrilling buzzer-beating road win over Dayton last week. The Commodores are undoubtedly playing terrific basketball right now but I see this as a flat spot in an early-week home game against lowly George Washington. The Colonials were picked by many to finish near the bottom of the Atlantic-10 standings this season and to no one's surprise, that's where they're wallowing as we head into mid-January. With that being said, they have managed to go 2-1 over their last three games and it shouldn't be difficult to get up and bounce back from a 25-point beatdown at home against Dayton last time out. While VCU is coming off a 19-point rout of La Salle, it isn't really built to run away and hide from teams, noting that it averages just 53 field goal attempts and five made three-pointers per game this season. The Commodores turned in a near-perfect game last time out against the Explorers, shooting better than 51% from the field, turning the ball over only eight times while forcing 19. That wrapped up a perfect 2-0 road trip. You can understand why returning home to host a team like George Washington in a 'name-your-score' type of game may not be all that inspiring. Keep in mind, George Washington managed to stay comfortably inside the pointspread in last year's lone meeting, dropping a seven-point decision at home as an 11.5-point underdog. Noting that VCU does turn the ball over two more times per game than GWU and also sends opponents to the free throw line an average of 18 times per contest, not to mention the fact that the Commodores have a clear look-ahead with a trip to St. Bonaventure on deck later this week, I like the Colonials to stay inside the lofty number on Tuesday. Take George Washington (10*). | |||||||
01-10-22 | Jazz v. Pistons +12 | Top | 116-126 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Utah at 7:10 pm et on Monday. The 'foul mood' narrative is weighing heavily with a lot of bettors in this one as the Jazz enter this game off back-to-back losses in Toronto and Indiana. We've seen the line shift a point-and-a-half in favor of Utah over the course of the morning and I believe it's gotten out of hand. As bad as the Pistons have been this season, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 5.7 points here at home. They come into this game having won three of their last five games overall and have gone an even 6-6 ATS over their last 12 contests. As for the Jazz, they're missing a number of key contributors and not only enter off consecutive SU losses, but have gone a miserable 3-10 ATS over their last 13 games. In three meetings since the start of 2020, the Jazz's largest margin of victory in this series has been 12 points, and that came at home in a game where they were favored by 13. The last time Utah played here in Detroit it was favored by just 8.5 points and won by 10 last January. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
01-08-22 | Appalachian State +2.5 v. Troy State | Top | 53-68 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
CBB Sun Belt Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Appalachian State plus the points over Troy at 5 pm et on Saturday. We won with Appalachian State in an arguably tougher matchup two nights ago as the Mountaineers went on the road and upset South Alabama by a 72-64 score - their second straight in-conference victory. They won that game despite not getting a single point from Justin Forrest in his first game back off the Covid list. I would certainly anticipate a sharper performance from Forrest in particular in Saturday's game. As we noted on Thursday, the Mountaineers have faced a very difficult schedule this season - ranking 78th in the nation in strength of schedule according to KenPom. Contrast that with Troy, which checks in 298th in that department yet has only managed three more victories than Appalachian State. I like the discipline we've seen from the Mountaineers this season as they only send opponents to the free throw line an average of 11 times per game. They also average five fewer turnovers per game than Troy, despite a similar number of possessions per contest. The Trojans have forced an additional five turnovers per game compared to the Mountaineers but again, strength of schedule factors in. Troy swept the season series between these two teams last year. Prior to that, Appalachian State had taken four of the last five meetings and we only have to go back three meetings at Troy (to December of 2019) to find the last time the Mountaineers won a game outright on this floor. Take Appalachian State (10*). | |||||||
01-07-22 | Hawks +3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 118-134 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Something has to give in this one as the Hawks try for their first winning streak since reeling off seven consecutive victories back in November while the Lakers try to post a fourth straight win for the first time this season. On a positive note for the Hawks, they have now won two of their last three games for the first time since that aforementioned winning streak, despite dealing with a multitude of Covid and injury-related absences. Trae Young is currently questionable to play on Friday due to back soreness. While I do expect him to play, I still like backing the Hawks in an underdog role here even if he doesn't (albeit with a lesser wager depending on the number). On the two previous occasions where the Lakers posted three straight wins this season they went on to lose their next game outright as a 10.5-point home favorite against Oklahoma City and as a 1.5-point road favorite against Minnesota. The Lakers are just 11-24 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by just 1.4 points on average. Worse still, they're a woeful 2-12 ATS when coming off consecutive home wins over the same period, outscored by an average margin of 3.2 points in that situation. While the Hawks are a losing team on the road this season at 9-11 SU, they've only been outscored by an average margin of 1.8 points in those games. The Lakers on the other hand are 13-10 SU at home but have actually been outscored by 0.3 points on average - a big reason why they're a miserable 8-15 ATS here in Los Angeles this season. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
01-07-22 | Brown +3.5 v. Harvard | Top | 84-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Ivy League Game of the Year. My selection is on Brown plus the points over Harvard at 7 pm et on Friday. Brown enters this game on the heels of four straight losses including a heartbreaking 77-73 near-miss on the road against Penn last Sunday. The Bears have faced the 111th toughest schedule in the country so far this season according to KenPom while Harvard has faced the 303rd. So it's not surprising that the Crimson check in sporting the better overall record (although not by much at 7-4 compared to 8-8). Here, Harvard will be taking the floor in game action for the first time since December 21st. The 'rest vs. rust' conversation comes up yet again and here I think Brown has the distinct advantage having played three times (and against tough competition including road games at Syracuse and Maryland) since Harvard last played. While a lot of bettors will likely use the 'triple-revenge' angle in support of Harvard here, I'm not sure that plays a major factor. Both teams experienced plenty of roster turnover. Speaking of that, I'm high on Brown freshman Nana Owuse-Anane, who has contributed 6.8 points per game and 3.7 rebounds per game in 18.5 minutes on average so far this season. Loyola-Chicago transfer Paxson Wojcik is also a notable newcomer. It's worth pointing out that he failed to knock down a single three-pointer over the last two games (he had made 12 over his previous five games) yet the Bears were right there in contention for the ATS cover in each of those contests. I'm anticipating a solid bounce-back effort from him tonight. The Crimson rely heavily on the three-ball in their offense, averaging 10 made threes per game this season. Brown on the other hand has done an excellent job of limiting its opponents effectiveness from long range, allowing just six made threes per game on the road (on 18 attempts). While Brown has been shooting much better lately following a shaky start to the season (that had a lot to do with the aforementioned difficult, front-loaded schedule), Harvard has shot worse than 38% in three of its last four contests. Finally, I'll note that Harvard has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six lined games off consecutive home wins, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 0.4 points. Take Brown (10*). | |||||||
01-06-22 | Washington State +2 v. Colorado | 78-83 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State plus the points over Colorado at 9 pm et on Thursday. To say that Colorado has owned this series here in Boulder would be a massive understatement. However, the Buffaloes home dominance over Washington State over the years shouldn't mean much to the Cougars core which is largely made up of transfers into the program this year with Michael Flowers, Tyrell Roberts and Noah Williams leading the way. Washington State has faced the tougher schedule than Colorado according to KenPom this season and has arguably put up better numbers at both ends of the floor. I'm confident that we'll see the Cougars really push the Buffaloes in this one, noting that we've seen Washington State pick up the tempo a little more than in recent years, to some considerable success with eight wins in its first 13 games this season. While the 'rest vs. rust' conversation could be had when it comes to both teams, at least Wazzu has been able to play four games since the 11th of December. Colorado, on the other hand, will be taking the floor in game action for just the third time since December 10th. Take Washington State (9*). | |||||||
01-06-22 | Appalachian State +6.5 v. South Alabama | 72-64 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Appalachian State plus the points over South Alabama at 8 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Mountaineers in this one as they take on South Alabama on Thursday night. Appalachian State is hoping to have one of its top scoring options Justin Forrest back for this game after he missed the last two contests due to Covid protocols. Even if he can't go, I still like Appalachian State's chances of keeping this game competitive. Note that home court hasn't meant a whole lot in this series with the road team winning six of the last seven meetings outright. The Mountaineers have dropped the last two meetings in this series by a combined four points. South Alabama is off to a terrific 10-4 start this season but it's worth noting that the Jaguars check in just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 lined games in the role of favorite. Also note that Appalachian State sits inside the top-90 in the country in terms of strength of schedule according to KenPom while South Alabama sits 179th. Noting that the Mountaineers allow just one more made three-pointer per game on four additional attempts while also holding opponents to just 12 free throw attempts per contest compared to South Alabama's 15, I look for Appalachian State to take this one down to the wire. Take Appalachian State (8*). | |||||||
01-06-22 | Southern Miss +4 v. Texas-San Antonio | Top | 74-73 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
C-USA Game of the Year. My selection is on Southern Miss plus the points over UTSA at 8 pm et on Thursday. Southern Miss has plenty of returning experience on this year's team but isn't expected to make much noise in C-USA. Things have generally played out accordingly so far as the Golden Eagles check in 4-8 on the season, coming off six consecutive losses. With that being said, I see this as a winnable game. Note that while Southern Miss has only faced the 216th toughest schedule in the country according to KenPom, UTSA ranks 335th in that department. A closer inspection of the Roadrunners seven wins finds that they've defeated the likes of Trinity College (non-Div. 1), 5-11 Denver, 1-10 IUPUI (by three points at home), 2-13 Lamar, St. Mary's-Texas (non-Div. 1), Sam Houston State (their lone credible win) and Dallas Christian (non-Div. 1). It's not as if UTSA has been overly impressive in its wins - in fact, it checks in just 4-6 ATS in lined games this season. I do think that Southern Miss can frustrate UTSA with it's methodical pace, much like it did against East Carolina in a narrow one-point loss last time out. Interestingly, while the Golden Eagles average five fewer three-point attempts per game than the Roadrunners, they only make one fewer on average. Despite attempting 10 fewer field goals per contest, Southern Miss actually averages one more assist per game than UTSA. The Roadrunners have taken three straight meetings in this series although both of last year's matchups were close, with each game decided by exactly six points. Note that prior to those three consecutive wins, UTSA hadn't previously managed to win back-to-back meetings in the first 10 matchups all-time in this series. Take Southern Miss (10*). | |||||||
01-06-22 | Celtics v. Knicks +1.5 | Top | 105-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Boston at 7:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Knicks in the first meeting between these two teams way back in October before passing on their next matchup in December - a game New York lost by seven points in Boston. Here, I won't hesitate to get behind the Knicks again as they look to build some positive momentum off a win over the Pacers two nights ago. New York will be without both Kemba Walker and Derrick Rose for this one. I don't mind that as it allows Jerome Randle and R.J. Barrett to step up, just as they did all last season. The Celtics have been a disappointment for the most part again this season and we just cashed a ticket fading them in their outright loss to the Spurs at home last night. Most will likely be looking to back Boston in this bounce-back spot but I don't see it. Note that the Celtics are just 7-12 SU on the road this season and check in a miserable 7-18 ATS in their last 25 games against Atlantic Division opponents, outscored by an average margin of 6.1 points. New York on the other hand is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here at the time of writing. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
01-05-22 | Heat v. Blazers | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. Often times we see teams rise to the occasion without their best players and I believe that will be the case with the Heat on Wednesday as they look to snap a two-game losing streak with Jimmy Butler on the sidelines. Of course, tonight's opponent has its own injury issues with both Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum remaining out. The Blazers did step up on Monday, securing a wild 136-131 come-from-behind win over the Hawks with Anfernee Simons going off for 43 points. Don't count on a repeat performance here, noting that Portland has won just four of its last 18 games. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team playing worse defensive basketball than the Blazers right now as they've given up 130+ points in three of their last four games, allowing five straight opponents to shoot better than 52% from the field. Even without Butler, the Heat still have Kyle Lowry and Tyler Herro capable of stepping up and taking advantage of the Blazers dismal defense. Here, we'll note that Miami is 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season, actually outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.7 points in that situation. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
01-05-22 | Spurs +8 v. Celtics | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. I resisted the temptation to back the slumping Spurs catching a handful of points in Toronto last night as they dropped their fourth straight game with the loss coming in blowout fashion. I expect a much better performance from San Antonio on Wednesday as it goes up against a Celtics squad it has given plenty of problems, going 3-1 in the last four meetings with the lone loss coming by just three points. The Spurs are expected to have underrated star Dejounte Murray back from health and safety protocols for this game. All indications are that he could have returned in one of the last few games but the Spurs wisely decided not to rush him back. Boston is coming off consecutive wins to open its current homestand and will have Jayson Tatum back for this one. Note, however that the Celtics are just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games following a home win, outscored by 1.2 points on average in that spot. They're also just 8-20 ATS when revenging a loss against an opponent as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscored by 0.4 points on average in that situation. Take San Antonio (9*). | |||||||
01-05-22 | VCU +3.5 v. Dayton | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on VCU plus the points over Dayton at 7 pm et on Wednesday. This line has shot up from its opener as bettors seem to be quick to back Dayton at home in this triple-revenge spot after dropping all three meetings against VCU last season. Keep in mind, the Flyers have actually managed to win only two of the last nine meetings in this series and both of those came when the Rams were in a down year in 2020 (Dayton was favored by 8.5 points in its home matchup against VCU that year). There's not a lot separating these two teams this season with the Rams entering with seven wins and Dayton checking in with eight. VCU has a nice upset win over Syracuse on its resume while Dayton has taken down Kansas and Virginia Tech but has also lost against the likes of Lipscomb and Austin Peay (both losses admittedly came at the outset of the season). VCU shouldn't be uncomfortable playing at Dayton's preferred slow pace in this one. I like the fact we're catching points with the Rams here noting that the last seven times we've seen one team favored by four points or less in this series, six of those contests have ultimately been decided by five points or less. We can expect another nip and tuck affair here with the total set in the 120's and I expect VCU to earn some extra possessions noting that they've forced nine more turnovers per game this season (and have faced the considerably tougher schedule according to KenPom - VCU ranks 49th while Dayton checks in 258th in strength of schedule). Take VCU (9*). | |||||||
01-05-22 | DePaul +5 v. St. John's | Top | 84-89 | Push | 0 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Year. My selection is on Depaul plus the points over St. John's at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. Depaul will be looking to snap its first losing streak of the season as it takes on St. John's on Wednesday night. The Blue Demons won't have a hard time getting up for this one after suffering a 17-point beatdown at the hands of Providence last time out. Prior to that, their other two losses this season came by identical four-point margins against quality opponents in Loyola-Chicago and Butler. St. John's is coming off a loss of its own, dropping a two-point decision against a disappointing Pittsburgh squad. It's worth noting that the Blue Demons send opponents to the free throw line five fewer times per game while also getting there one additional time compared to the Red Storm this season. They also turn the ball over two fewer times despite playing at a slightly slower pace. St. John's has been the slightly better three-point shooting team but has also been the weaker team defending the three. While Depaul's strength of schedule ranks a poor 268th in the country according to KenPom, St. John's has faced the nation's 347th toughest schedule. In other words, there's little separating these two squads yet the Red Storm are being asked to lay a handful of points. Note that home court has meant very little in this particular series lately with the road team taking three consecutive meetings and six of the last nine overall. Take Depaul (10*). | |||||||
01-04-22 | Virginia +4 v. Clemson | Top | 75-65 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Virginia plus the points over Clemson at 9 pm et on Tuesday. When these teams last met just two weeks ago in Virginia, Clemson exacted revenge for last year's 35-point beatdown at the hands of the Cavaliers, securing a decisive 17-point victory. Now the shoe is on the other foot as Virginia looks for revenge, noting that the Cavaliers own a terrific 22-11 ATS mark under head coach Tony Bennett when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent as a favorite, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.9 points in that situation. Also note that the Cavaliers are 32-19 under Bennett as a road underdog. Clemson, meanwhile, checks in a miserable 3-11 ATS, outscored by 6.5 points on average, when coming off five or six wins in their last seven games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Virginia (10*). | |||||||
01-03-22 | Pistons v. Bucks -16 | 115-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Detroit at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Bucks have had no trouble brushing aside the Pistons in two previous meetings this season, holding them to 89 and 93 points in wins by 28 and 21 points. Let's take a closer look at that most recent matchup - a 114-93 Milwaukee win. In that game, the Pistons actually made double-digit three-pointers (11), got to the free throw line two more times and turned the ball over seven fewer times. Yet they still lost by 21 points. Here, the Pistons are catching the Bucks at absolutely the wrong time. Milwaukee has put up its three highest point totals of the entire season in its last three games, winning by 17, 18 and 23 points. There's no reason to expect any sort of letdown from the Bucks on Monday as they look to take advantage of a Pistons squad that is still missing a number of key contributors (it is expected to get a few players back for this game). Here, we'll note that Detroit is just 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a home win, outscored by an average margin of 14.0 points in that situation. The Bucks, meanwhile, check in 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games against division opponents, outscoring them by an average margin of 14.1 points. Take Milwaukee (9*). | |||||||
01-01-22 | Spurs -6.5 v. Pistons | 116-117 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Detroit at 7 pm et on Saturday. With Dejounte Murray expected to return from Covid protocol the Spurs are in a bounce-back smash spot against the undermanned Pistons on Saturday night. Note that San Antonio has gone 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games following a double-digit loss, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Pistons are just 25-40 ATS the last 65 times they've sought revenge for a same-season loss, which is the situation here after they were blown out in San Antonio on Boxing Day. While the Spurs have run into trouble over their last two games, those came against two elite teams in the Jazz and Grizzlies. Note that while they've posted a 7-10 SU record on the road this season, they've actually outscored the opposition by an average margin of 0.7 points. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
01-01-22 | Creighton v. Marquette +1 | 75-69 | Loss | -106 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marquette plus the points over Creighton at 12 noon et on Saturday. It may be early but make no mistake, this is a big game for Shaka Smart's Marquette Golden Eagles. Missing Darryl Morsell due to Covid protocols, the Golden Eagles dropped their third game in a row, by eight points against UConn back on December 21st. While this is certainly a tough matchup against Creighton, I expect Marquette to rise to the occasion. The Blue Jays last played on December 17th, when they posted a stunning blowout win over Villanova. While Creighton is off to a fine start this season, it hasn't been all that consistent. Note that the Blue Jays have faced the nation's 131st toughest schedule this season according to KenPom. Marquette on the other hand has faced the 17th toughest. Take Marquette (8*). | |||||||
12-30-21 | St. Joe's v. Richmond -11.5 | Top | 83-56 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
A-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on Richmond minus the points over St. Joseph's at 7 pm et on Thursday. I like the way this one sets up as a smash spot for the red hot Richmond Spiders. St. Joseph's comes in off three straight ATS wins. Note the last time it reeled off three consecutive ATS victories it followed that up with a 29-point thumping at the hands of Villanova. Richmond has won six games in a row, going 4-2 ATS over that stretch. The Spiders should offer a bit of a 'shock to the system' for the St. Joe's defense here, noting that they average 10 more three-point attempts per game (26) than the Hawks have faced (16) so far this season. The Spiders are also getting to the free throw line an average of two more times per game while turning the ball over two fewer times and forcing three more turnovers, all while facing a much tougher schedule (top-95 in the country according to KenPom compared to St. Joe's top-250). This is a revenge spot for Richmond after it dropped a stunning 76-73 decision at home last March (as a 15-point favorite). The Spiders clearly overlooked the Hawks on that occasion after beating them by 20+ points on the road earlier in the season. Take Richmond (10*). | |||||||
12-29-21 | Mavs v. Kings +1.5 | 94-95 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Dallas at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. This is an ideal revenge spot for the Kings after they suffered a six-point loss in Dallas back on Halloween. The Mavs are far from full strength now, continuing to deal with Covid protocols that have kept a number of key contributors out of the lineup, including Luka Doncic. The Kings went through similar issues but have come out on the other side and enter this game off a slump-busting 117-111 win over the Thunder. Dallas, meanwhile, is coming off a pop-up 15-point win over the reeling Blazers in Portland as it took full advantage of an awful defensive performance on the part of the home side. Here, I'm not sure it will be so fortunate. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
12-28-21 | Wizards v. Heat -6 | 112-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Washington at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. I'll lay the points with the Heat on Tuesday as they aim for their fourth consecutive victory. Both teams are dealing with Covid issues but who isn't these days? The Heat check in allowing just a shade over 100 points per game at home this season where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of around eight points. The Wizards, meanwhile, did register consecutive wins to wrap up their most recent road trip but remain just 9-11 away from home this season where they give up an average of over 108 points per game. The Heat have taken the last two matchups with the Wizards here in Miami by 27 and 15 points. Note that the Heat are coming off a 10-point win over the Magic last time out that saw them give up their lowest point total of the entire season (83 points). The Wiz haven't allowed fewer than 100 points in a game since way back on November 26th against Oklahoma City. Take Miami (9*). | |||||||
12-25-21 | Warriors v. Suns -3.5 | 116-107 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Golden State at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. With Steph Curry going off on Thursday against the Grizzlies and the Suns failing to cover against the Thunder, I like the way this one sets up for Phoenix as these two Western Conference powerhouses do battle for the third time this season. The home team has won and covered the first two matchups (keep in mind, the Suns were without Devin Booker for the rematch in San Francisco). Phoenix enters this game on a serious roll, firing on all cylinders at both ends of the floor. I like the way Monty Williams managed Thursday's game as Devin Booker got truly stretched out for the first time since returning from injury, seeing 35 minutes of action (and pouring in 30 points). DeAndre Ayton and Chris Paul played just 30 and 31 minutes, respectively. While most teams have dealth with Covid issues, the Suns have been relatively unscathed (fingers crossed that remains the case for Saturday). Here, we'll note that the Suns are 22-5 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.1 points. They're also an incredible 16-3 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over that same time frame, as is the case here, outscoring foes by 13.7 points on average. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
12-22-21 | Hofstra +6 v. Monmouth | Top | 77-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is Hofstra plus the points over Monmouth at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Monmouth Hawks are off to an incredible 12-0 ATS start this season but I think their run of perfection (ATS-wise at least) comes to an end on Wednesday. Hofstra is a quality squad that you just don't hear much about. The Pride have faced the 25th toughest schedule in the country (according to KenPom) but have managed to post a respectable 7-5 SU and 7-3 ATS (in lined games) overall record. They're limiting opponents to just 13 free throw attempts per game and a disciplined brand of defense will be key against a Monmouth squad that lives at the line, getting there 19 times per game this season. The Pride also turn the ball over three fewer times than the Hawks while forcing two additional turnovers per contest. Monmouth's offense has benefited from some sharp shooting from beyond the arc, particularly at home where it knocks down over 40% of its three-point attempts. Hofstra is capable of matching it in that regard, however, averaging 10 made threes per game. The Pride should offer the Hawks a bit of a change of pace here as they average 29 three-point attempts per game - five north of the 24 Monmouth has seen on average. These two teams met last December as well with Hofstra scoring 96 points in an eight-point road win (as a -1.5 favorite). Look for Speedy Claxton's squad to give red hot Monmouth a serious run on Wednesday night. Take Hofstra (10*). | |||||||
12-21-21 | Suns -7 v. Lakers | Top | 108-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can't help but think this game means very little to the Lakers in the grand scheme of things. They know they can't match up with the Suns right now, not with Anthony Davis among those sidelined and Lebron James less than 100% healthy. The Suns welcomed Devin Booker back on Sunday and he filled the statsheet in only 26 minutes of action. While Booker was sidelined we saw the Suns continue to stack up wins with a number of other players picking up the scoring slack in his absence. I believe Phoenix is better for it. The Suns have been a terrific positive momentum play in recent years, going 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games following consecutive double-digit wins, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a miserable 20-36 ATS in their last 56 home games and limp into this game off a 1-2 road trip in which the only win came against a Luka-less Mavs squad. It's worth noting that the straight-up winner has also covered the spread in 11 straight meetings in this series. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
12-20-21 | Oral Roberts -3 v. South Dakota | 82-73 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oral Roberts minus the points over South Dakota at 8 pm et on Monday. We won with Oral Roberts in its last game and I won't hesitate to go back to the well again here. ORU should offer a 'shock to the system' of sorts as it averages 33 three-point attempts per game (making 13 of those on average) while South Dakota has faced just 22 threes per contest. USD has lived at the free throw line where it averages 22 attempts per game but now faces an ORU squad that has limited opponents to only 12 attempts from the charity stripe per contest. Also note that while ORU ranks in the 130's in terms of strength of schedule (according to KenPom), USD checks in north of 300th in that department. Off consecutive home wins, I look for South Dakota to fall short here. Take Oral Roberts (8*). | |||||||
12-19-21 | Dartmouth +12 v. California | Top | 55-61 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Darmouth plus the points over California at 4 pm et on Sunday. Dartmouth gave Stanford everything it could handle on Friday night before fading in overtime in an 11-point loss. The eventual lopsided nature of that game ends up providing us with some value here as the Big Green should bring plenty of confidence as a decided underdog at Cal on Sunday. Note that Dartmouth ranks 77th in the nation in terms of strength of schedule. Cal checks in 119th. Coming off consecutive blowout wins to open their four-game homestand it would be easy for the Bears to overlook the Big Green here. That would be a mistake as Dartmouth can hang thanks to its terrific outside shooting (10 made threes per game on 37.2% shooting from beyond the arc). The knock on the Big Green is their inability to get to the free throw line with much consistency (they average only 11 attempts per game). However, they do knock down nearly 75% of their free throw attempts and it's not as if Cal has been much better in that regard, averaging 15 trips to the charity stripe per contest. Cal also averages only five made threes per contest. Additionally, Dartmouth forces three more turnovers per game while the two teams are on par in terms of turnovers lost, averaging 12 each. While I'm not about to call for the outright upset, I do think Dartmouth can take this one down to the wire. Take Dartmouth (10*). | |||||||
12-18-21 | Rockets v. Pistons | 116-107 | Loss | -108 | 2 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit over Houston at 12:10 pm et on Saturday. With tipoff quickly approaching I'll keep my analysis for this play short. I understand the apprehension around backing the Pistons here as they haven't won a game since November 17th. Keep in mind, they've only been favored in one game since then. The Rockets had a brief surge but have now gone back in the tank, losers of four of their last five games. Here, we'll note that Houston 123, 113, 126, 124 and 116 points over its last five contests. Detroit, meanwhile, has posted two of its four highest scoring totals of the season over its last four games. Also note that Detroit has taken the last two meetings in this series. Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
12-16-21 | Wizards v. Suns -8.5 | Top | 98-118 | Win | 100 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Washington at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Wizards are reeling right now, losers of six of their last seven games, going 0-6-1 ATS over that stretch. Thursday's date with the Suns, on a back-to-back no less, doesn't figure to be the 'get right' spot they're looking for. Phoenix is still without Devin Booker although his return is getting closer. The Suns keep rolling along regardless, winners of three of their last four games despite missing DeAndre Ayton for part of that stretch as well. Ayton returned on Tuesday and played a big part in a 111-107 overtime win in Portland. I don't expect the Suns to face nearly as much resistance against the Wiz on Thursday. Washington got 29 points from Deni Avdija and Montresz Harrell off the bench and Bradley Beal scored 30 points for the first time in five games (and only the fourth time this season) yet still lost by 14 points in Sacramento last night. Here, we'll note that Washington has allowed a whopping 120.9 points per game the last 51 times it has played consecutive road games, as is the case here as it continues a long six-game trip. The Suns, meanwhile, are 29-16 ATS in their last 45 home games following a win, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.1 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
12-16-21 | Jackson State v. Drake -15.5 | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Drake minus the points over Jackson State at 8 pm et on Thursday. Drake enters this game on an eight-game ATS losing streak and also off a 'real' loss, that coming by 10 points as a two-point underdog against Clemson on Saturday. Here, we're finally able to back the Bulldogs as a somewhat reasonably-priced favorites as their recent ATS struggles begin to factor into the line. Jackson State actually enters this game on a three-game ATS winning streak. There's no doubt it's been tough sledding for it to open the season having yet to play a home game. Note that two of its four lowest point outputs of the season have come in its last two contests. Jackson State has faced a tough schedule but it's still worth mentioning that it is getting to the free throw line only 11 times per game while sending opponents to the charity stripe a whopping 22 times per contest. Also note that it averages just six made three-pointers per game and turns the basketball over an average of 15 times. Drake obviously excels in all of those departments. The Bulldogs are getting to the free throw line seven more times on average, make an additional three made threes and turn the ball over four fewer times - all on a per game average. This is a chance for Drake to ramp up in its next two games against inferior opponents before wrapping up its pre-holiday slate with a tough game against St. Louis next week. Take Drake (10*). | |||||||
12-16-21 | Texas-Arlington v. Oral Roberts -7.5 | 62-71 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oral Roberts minus the points over Texas-Arlington at 8 pm et on Thursday. Oral Roberts is coming off a disappointing loss at Missouri State to cap off a 1-2 road trip. It shouldn't come away all that discouraged, however, as it was only really expected to win one of those three games, and it did manage to go 2-1 ATS. I like the way ORU matches up against Texas-Arlington, which comes in riding its first winning streak of the season. Note that Texas-Arlington continues to struggle to find consistency at the offensive end of the floor, where it has been held to 45, 36 and 56 points on three occasions this season. It did manage to put up 71 points earlier in the campaign against a tough Abilene Christian squad but still lost by nine points despite shooting 47% from the field while its opponent shot 33%. A lack of defensive discipline has been a problem as Arlington sends opponents to the free throw line 21 times per game. It also turns the basketball over 17 times per game. Both are problem areas against an ORU squad that excels in both departments. ORU has allowed just 12 free throw attempts per contest and turns the ball over just 12 times per game. That's not to mention the fact that ORU has the potential to serve as a real 'shock to the system' for Arlington here as it hoists up a whopping 33 three-point attempts per game, knocking down 13 of them on average. Arlington averages only five made threes on 17 attempts per game this season. This one gets away from the Mavericks. Take Oral Roberts (9*). | |||||||
12-15-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -9.5 | 103-124 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz are rolling right now, winners of seven straight games. Each of their five highest scoring performances of the season have come over that stretch. They've also held opponents to two of their six lowest point totals of the season over their last two contests. In other words, it's going to take quite a performance to take down Utah right now. I'm not convinced the undermanned Clippers are up for it. Los Angeles checks in 'fat and happy' off four consecutive wins - a streak that started with a double-digit victory in Portland. Still, the Clips are a losing team on the road this season where they average just 104.9 points per game. That's not going to cut it against a Jazz squad that averages over 116 points per contest on its home floor. This is Utah's first shot at Los Angeles after bowing out at the hands of the Clips in the playoffs last June. Expect the Jazz to make a statement. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
12-15-21 | Pacers v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Indiana at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo among others on Wednesday night. No one is going to feel sorry for the defending champs though. This game opens a six-game in 11-day stretch for Milwaukee. Off a double-digit loss in Boston two nights ago, I look for the Bucks to bounce back on their home floor. The Pacers check in having won three of their last four games. All three of those wins came in the role of favorite. They lost by two points against the Warriors two nights ago so most will expect them to have little trouble taking the undermanned Bucks down to the wire in this one as well. I'm not so sure. Milwaukee has owned the Central Division lately, going 13-4 ATS in its last 17 matchups against divisional foes. It has also taken six straight meetings against Indiana, winning all six of those games by at least nine points. Note that the Pacers check in a miserable 3-10 on the road this season. The fact that Giannis will miss this game isn't lost on the oddsmakers. The Bucks are still being favored for a reason in my opinion. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +2.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. We won with the 'under' in the Suns 111-105 loss to the Paul George-less Clippers last night. Phoenix has lost only five games all season but two of those have come in its last four games. Going back to the start of 2020, the home team has won six of the last seven meetings in this series. Phoenix won here in Portland by a 127-121 score last March but that was on the strength of a lights-out 59% shooting performance. The Suns of course won't have the services of Devin Booker once again for this one. DeAndre Ayton missed last night's game as well and is questionable to return here. Regardless whether he plays, I believe the Suns will be in tough trying to hold down a Blazers team that will be looking to snap a five-game losing streak. Damian Lillard returned to the lineup on Sunday but it wasn't enough as Portland fell by five points against Minnesota. Lillard posted a 24/11/6 line in 36 minutes on Sunday so he certainly seemed no worse for wear in his first game back. A lot of bettors got behind the Blazers in that contest and certainly came away discouraged. I believe it's the wrong move jumping ship here, however. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
12-14-21 | Monmouth v. Yale +1.5 | 69-60 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Yale plus the points over Monmouth at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Monmouth Hawks are playing excellent basketball right now - in fact, they're a perfect 10-0 ATS this season. I think they're in for a tough matchup on Tuesday night against Yale, however. Note that the Hawks will be playing their second game in the last three days - a situation they've gone 1-8 ATS in the last nine times it has come up, outscored by 9.5 points on average. Yale is coming off a 14-point loss to Iona, which is notable as it hasn't dropped consecutive games since dropping back-to-back contests against Vermont and Southern Utah (both away from home) back in mid-November. The Hawks and Bulldogs have similar strength of schedules so far this season so it's worth noting that Yale has sent opponents to the free throw line three fewer times per game while also turning the ball over two fewer times and forcing three more turnovers per contest. Both teams like to play up-tempo but I think that favors Yale here at home, where it shoots just shy of 47% as a team and averages nine made threes per game. Take Yale (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Pelicans v. Spurs -2.5 | Top | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Spurs in Thursday's win over the Nuggets and then successfully faded them in last night's blowout loss in the quick rematch. Here, I'll get behind the Spurs again as they stay home to face the Pelicans on Sunday night. New Orleans is coming off a win over Detroit on Friday, snapping a brief two-game losing streak. Now the Pelicans hit the road where they're just 4-11 this season, outscored by an average margin of 8.6 points. Note that they're a long-term loser at 59-85 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit win, as is the case here. The Spurs meanwhile are 53-29 ATS when playing at home off a loss by 15+ points, which is the situation they're in tonight off last night's loss to the Nuggets. While they're just 5-8 SU at home this season, they've actually managed to outscore the opposition on average so the margin between a winning and losing record is fairly slim. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Monmouth v. Pittsburgh +1 | 56-52 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Pittsburgh plus the points over Monmouth at 7 pm et on Sunday. The Panthers have been playing much better basketball lately and snapped their four-game losing streak with a 71-68 win over Colgate in the first game of the Gotham Classic on Thursday. Keep in mind, their four-game skid included narrow one-point losses against Minnesota and Virginia (on the road). Here, we'll note that Pitt is sending opponents to the free throw line just 14 times per game compared to Monmouth's 21. The Panthers also represent a much different challenge than Monmouth is used to facing as they generally focus on scoring down low rather than from beyond the arc, where most of the Hawks opponents have lived, noting that they've faced 25 three-point attempts per game. Pitt attempts just 15 threes per contest. Monmouth checks in undefeated ATS on the season at a perfect 9-0. Off just its second straight-up loss of the campaign I look for it to have a tough time regaining its footing against Pitt on Sunday. Take Pittsburgh (8*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | Villanova +4.5 v. Baylor | 36-57 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Villanova plus the points over Baylor at 3 pm et on Sunday. Could we be seeing a potential National Title Game preview on Sunday afternoon? I'll go with the Wildcats in this spot as they aim to hand Baylor its first loss of the season. Villanova checks in 7-2 on the campaign with its two losses coming by nine points against UCLA and six points against Purdue - two other national title contenders. The Wildcats could offer a bit of a shock to the system for the Bears here, noting that 'Nova averages a whopping 30 three-point attempts per game (making 12 of those on average) while Baylor has only faced an average of 19 attempts per game from three-point range. Note also that the Wildcats are sending opponents to the free throw line only 13 times per game this season and turning the ball over an average of just nine times. By contrast, the Bears turn it over 12 times per game and send opponents to the line 14 times. Simply put, I don't believe there's a lot separating these two teams at this stage of the season and we're being given a couple of buckets to work with. Take Villanova (10*). | |||||||
12-12-21 | NC State +14 v. Purdue | 72-82 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Purdue at 2 pm et on Sunday. Purdue snagged the number-one ranking in the country and then proceeded to drop a 70-68 decision against Rutgers earlier this week. While the Boilermakers should bounce back with a win here, I question whether they can do so by margin. N.C. State checks in just 1-8 ATS on the campaign but 7-2 straight-up. It's worth noting that the Wolfpack's two losses have come by just six points against Oklahoma State and five points against Louisville - certainly two quality opponents. I like the fact that N.C. State is turning the basketball over just 10 times per game compared to Purdue's 13. The Wolfpack are getting to the free throw line an impressive 25 times per game while sending opponents to the charity stripe only 16 times on average. The Boilers are certainly the more talented team and as I said they should get the win, but they're simply being asked to lay too many points in my opinion. Take N.C. State (8*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Houston +2.5 v. Alabama | 82-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Alabama at 10 pm et on Saturday. This shapes up as the game of the night as the 14th-ranked Cougars travel to face the 9th-ranked Crimson Tide. We've seen the line flip from Houston being favored to now Alabama laying a bucket. Each team has one loss this season with Houston falling by two points on the road against a tough Wisconsin squad and Alabama dropping a 72-68 decision against Iona. Houston comes off an ATS loss last time out - a game it still won by 32 points over Alcorn State. Following the Cougars two previous ATS defeats this season they've posted wins by 33 points over Rice and 29 points over Oregon. The Crimson Tide already have a big statement win to their credit this season having defeated Gonzaga by nine points in their last game last weekend. Houston is sending opponents to the free throw line just 15 times per game this season and also turning the ball over just 11 times on average. By contrast, Alabama is allowing 20 free throws per contest and turning it over an average of 14 times. I'll grab the points with the underdog Cougars. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Nuggets +1 v. Spurs | Top | 127-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over San Antonio at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Nuggets opened as favorites in the front half of this two-game set in San Antonio on Thursday but the line quickly shifted in favor of the Spurs. We won with San Antonio in that contest but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Nuggets as they look for quick revenge on Saturday. Denver was never really all that competitive in Thursday's game, even if it did manage to keep things relatively close in the third quarter. Keep in mind, the Nuggets were playing the second of back-to-back nights after prevailing in overtime in New Orleans the night before. Here, the Spurs won't have the same rest advantage and that should be a difference-maker. The Nuggets did get a triple-double from Nikola Jokic in Thursday's loss. He's being asked to shoulder a lot of the offensive load with a number of key cogs missing due to injury. Road-weary or not, the Nuggets can ill-afford another slip-up here as they wrap up a seven-game road trip. Denver entered Friday's action a full six games back of the Jazz in the Northwest Division. The Spurs have won just once in their last three games on the heels of a four-game winning streak. They entered Friday as one of only four Western Conference teams that have yet to reach 10 wins on the season. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
12-11-21 | Western Kentucky +6 v. Ole Miss | 71-48 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Western Kentucky plus the points over Ole Miss at 7:30 pm et on Saturday. We've had to wait a full week, but we finally have an opportunity to fade Ole Miss off last Saturday's gift-wrapped win over Memphis. The Rebels won that game over the Tigers outright as an underdog as Memphis simply couldn't knock down its three-pointers (2-for-11) or free throw attempts (23-for-37) in an embarrassing performance. That was really Ole Miss' only truly impressive win this season and the jury is still out as to how impressive it actually was given the sloppiness of the Tigers in that game. Western Kentucky checks in sporting a less than impressive 5-4 overall record but it has faced a very tough schedule, including three straight November road games against Minnesota, South Carolina and aforementioned Memphis (when the Tigers were playing much better). The Hilltoppers are absolutely a contender in C-USA again this season and we could certainly seem them playing meaningful games in March. These two teams haven't met since back in 2014 when Western Kentucky stunned Ole Miss by an 81-74 score. Another 'upset' could be in the cards here. Take Western Kentucky (10*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Wisc-Milwaukee +13 v. Colorado | 54-65 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Milwaukee plus the points over Colorado at 9:30 pm et on Friday. Simply put, I'm not buying what Colorado is selling. The Buffaloes have just two ATS wins in 10 games this season. One of those came against a second-division opponent in Maine. The other came by a single point as a double-digit underdog against UCLA. Milwaukee has been largely disappointing to this point, only managing to post two victories. One of those came in its most recent contest against Robert Morris, however. The Panthers have shot better than 47% in consecutive games and I look for them to build off of those performances here. Colorado really isn't doing anything special to this point, making just four three-pointers per game on average while recording only 11 assists per game compared to 12 turnovers. I simply feel this is a good time to buy-low with Milwaukee, noting that three of its six losses this season have come by six points or less. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | DePaul +9 v. Louisville | 62-55 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Depaul plus the points over Louisville at 8 pm et on Friday. The Blue Demons are getting very little respect in this one as they check in as nearly double-digit underdogs against Louisville. Depaul has lost just one game and that came by just four points against a Loyola-Chicago squad that will likely be dancing come March. The Blue Demons have held the opposition to just north of 40% this season and they've been extremely disciplined in doing so, limiting opponents to only 14 free throw attempts per game. They're also shooting an impressive 49.2% as a team, having faced opponents that yield just 44.6% shooting on average. Louisville is off to a fine 6-2 start to the season but has only managed to go 4-4 ATS. The Cardinals have relied heavily on their defense to secure victories as they check in shooting just north of 42% as a team and 30.6% from three-point range. They're turning the ball over 15 times on average compared to Depaul's 12. Here, we'll note that Depaul is 33-18 ATS the last 51 times it has come off a double-digit home win, outscored by an average of just 2.6 points in that situation. Take Depaul (8*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Nets v. Hawks | 113-105 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Nets opened their current road trip with a three-point win in Dallas on Tuesday before falling to the red hot Rockets by double-digits on Wednesday. I look for them to have a tough time regaining their footing in Atlanta on Friday night. The Hawks have been idle since defeating the T'Wolves 121-110 on Monday. That was their first victory in three games so they'll certainly be eager to build some positive momentum in this spot, noting that they won't play again until they travel to Houston to face the aforementioned Rockets on Monday. This is a revenge spot for Atlanta after it fell by a 117-108 score in Brooklyn back on November 3rd. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
12-10-21 | Kings v. Hornets +2 | 123-124 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Sacramento at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Covid issues have hit the Hornets hard but they've remained competitive, coming off consecutive narrow losses at home against the 76ers by three and four-point margins. Here, I look for them to get back in the win column against the Kings before heading out on a tough six-game road trip. Even without a number of key cogs, it's not as if the Hornets are completely bereft of talent. Two nights ago we saw the trio of Kelly Oubre Jr., Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges pour in 73 points in an overtime loss against Philadelphia. Joel Embiid went off for Philadelphia in that game. It was simply 'one of those nights' and the Hornets weren't able to get the victory. I expect a different story to unfold here. The Kings are coming off three straight wins but still sit three games under .500 on the season. Travelling across the country on just one day of rest off three consecutive victories is a recipe for disaster in the opener of this three-game trip in my opinion. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
12-09-21 | Nuggets v. Spurs +1.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Denver at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. Tough spot for the Nuggets here after they rallied for an overtime win in New Orleans last night. Note that Denver hasn't posted consecutive wins since posting five straight victories back in early November. The Spurs, meanwhile, saw their four-game winning streak come to an end in Phoenix on Monday before dropping a double-digit decision at home against the Knicks the next night. I look for them to regain their footing here, noting that they've gone 30-15 ATS when revenging a road loss against an opponent over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here after they lost by six points in Denver back in October. The Nuggets on the other hand are a woeful 16-30 ATS in their last 46 games off a road win. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
12-09-21 | Monmouth v. St. John's -8 | 83-88 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on St. John's minus the points over Monmouth at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. Credit Monmouth for going a perfect 8-0 ATS to open the season but I think that streak ends here. St. John's comes in off five consecutive ATS losses but keep in mind it was favored by 16 points or more in four of those games and the other came against mighty Kansas. Here, we're being offered a much more favorable line to back the Red Storm and I expect them to deliver a double-digit win. This is a bit of a case of 'anything you can do I can do better'. St. John's is averaging nearly twice as many assists per game, steals per game and forced turnovers per contest. Checking in a perfect 6-0 on their home floor while outscoring opponents by right around 20 points per game, I question whether Monmouth can keep pace in this one. The Hawks are coming off a 14-point win over Canisius but that was a game in which the Griffins were missing arguably their best player in Malek Green. No such luck for the Hawks here as they run into a St. John's squad that will be eager to get rolling in their first game at the 'Gotham Classic'. Take St. John's (10*). | |||||||
12-08-21 | Blazers v. Warriors -13.5 | 94-104 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The straight-up winner has now covered the spread in 20 consecutive games involving the Golden State Warriors. That's a trend I see continuing on Wednesday night as the Warriors welcome the reeling Trail Blazers to San Francisco. The Blazers are of course still without Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum, among others. Two of Portland's three lowest-scoring efforts of the season have come in its last three contests. As for Golden State, it matched its second-highest scoring production of the season in Monday's 126-95 rout of the Magic. Still, this is a team that has lost two of its last four games so I don't expect it to overlook the undermanned Blazers on Wednesday. Note that the Warriors already defeated a healthier Portland squad by 15 points here back in November. Take Golden State (9*). | |||||||
12-08-21 | Drake -20 v. Nebraska-Omaha | Top | 78-70 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Drake minus the points over Nebraska-Omaha at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Both of these teams enter Wednesday's game on extended ATS losing streaks but I certainly feel that Drake is in better position to end its skid in this spot. The Bulldogs couldn't have played much better in their last two games but the opposition ended up shooting well and keeping them from ATS victories (they did win both of those games straight-up). In those two contests, Drake committed just 16 turnovers and shot 45.7% from the field. By contrast, Omaha has turned the ball over a whopping 31 times over its last two contests. It did manage to shoot better than 47% from the field last time out but that was against a 'defense-optional' Eastern Washington squad. Omaha remains one of the worst offensive teams in the country, averaging just 59.1 points per game on 36.5% shooting this season. Drake has a chance to be the class of an ultra-competitive Missouri Valley Conference this season with five returning starters. Don't be fooled by the Bulldogs modest 5-3 record as their three losses came against potential NCAA Tournament teams in Belmont, Alabama and North Texas. Take Drake (10*). | |||||||
12-08-21 | Canisius v. Northern Kentucky -6.5 | 62-75 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Canisius at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Northern Kentucky has just one win in six games this season but that's largely due to a sneaky-tough schedule. Sure, considering they've been favored in four of their first six contests, the Norse would have liked to have earned more than a single victory. That should only fuel their fire as they host a beatable Canisius squad that may or may not be without its super sixth-man Malek Green after he missed Sunday's game due to a sore ankle. The Golden Griffins are also off to a disappointing start. Their only two victories this season have come against Fredonia State and Coppin State, with the latter victory coming by just a single point as 10-point favorites. Canisius' game is largely built on spotting up from three and knocking those shots down. Unfortunately they just haven't been falling so far this season (31.6% from three-point range) and they don't figure to right the ship here with Northern Kentucky holding the opposition to just 32.5% three-point shooting on the season. This looks like an excellent 'get right' spot for the Norse offense against a Canisius defense that has allowed opponents to shoot better than 48% from the field this season. Take Northern Kentucky (8*). | |||||||
12-07-21 | Celtics v. Lakers -2.5 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Boston at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. It's been an eventful road trip for the Celtics already as they've been involved in a pair of very high-scoring games against the Jazz and Blazers, managing to earn a 1-1 split thanks to a 145-point explosion last time out in Portland. Here, I like the Lakers to get back on track following a tough loss to the Clippers and gain an ounce of revenge in the process after suffering a lopsided loss in Boston earlier this season. Note that Los Angeles has managed to follow each of its last three losses with wins and this is certainly a key spot before playing five of its next six games on the road. The Lakers are actually in a double-revenge spot here after dropping the last meeting last season as well by a 121-113 score here at home. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
12-07-21 | Nets v. Mavs +2.5 | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavs will be looking to salvage the finale of their three-game homestand on Tuesday after suffering losses at the hands of the Grizzlies and Pelicans. The hope is that they'll have both Kristaps Porzingis and Luka Doncic back for this game but it at the very least looks like Porzingis will be back in the lineup. I like the fact that we're catching points with the Mavs here noting that the Nets have managed to cover the spread just once in their last nine games. This is a big spot for the Mavs as they look to stop the bleeding before heading out on the road for three in a row. While the Nets do check in playing well offensively, it has come at the expense of their defense it seems as they've allowed 104 points or more in seven straight contests. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
12-05-21 | Western Illinois v. Central Michigan +5.5 | 97-70 | Loss | -109 | 3 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Central Michigan plus the points over Western Illinois at 2 pm et on Sunday. This situation sets up well for the 1-6 Chippewas as they finally get a chance to catch their breath after facing a ridiculously tough schedule to open the campaign. The Chips shot a miserable 31% from the field in a 33-point rout at the hands of Xavier on December 1st. Their schedule has included games against Missouri, Depaul, Gonzaga, Kentucky and aforementioned Xavier. They've been favored in just one game so far this season and that was their lone victory against Eastern Illinois. Western Illinois is off to a 7-2 start and shot a blistering 52% from the field in a 17-point rout of Tennessee-Martin yesterday. Keep in mind, it was favored by double-digits in that contest. Off three straight victories and in this back-to-back spot, I think Western Illinois would simply be happy to earn a victory here - winning by margin should prove difficult. Note that CMU won by six, pushing the closing line of -6 in a road win over Western Illinois last season. We're talking about a considerable pointspread swing here due to the Chips lack of returning talent. I believe that swing will prove too steep. Take Central Michigan (8*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Iowa State v. Creighton -4.5 | Top | 64-58 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
CBB Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Creighton minus the points over Iowa State at 9 pm et on Saturday. I really like the way this one sets up for Creighton as it hosts undefeated Iowa State on Saturday night. We actually won with the Cyclones in their outright upset win over Xavier in last week's NIT Tip-off Tournament in Brooklyn. They're off to an impressive 7-0 start that also includes a victory over a team that entered the season with National Title aspirations in Memphis. Still, I expect the Blue Jays to prove to be too much for the Cyclones on this night. Creighton has just one loss on the season and while it checks in with a poor 3-5 ATS record it was asked to lay more points than it is here tonight in four of those five previous ATS defeats. The Blue Jays do come in with some positive momentum after laying waste to a quality North Dakota State team last time out, winning by 25 points as eight-point favorites. While Creighton is known for its offense, it has put on a defensive clinic here at home this season, holding opponents to just 60.2 points per game on 35.3% shooting. Here, we'll note that Creighton is a perfect 6-0 ATS in its last six games after giving up 60 or less points, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 20.5 points. Take Creighton (10*). | |||||||
12-04-21 | Memphis -1 v. Ole Miss | 63-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Ole Miss at 12 noon et on Saturday. We'll take a flyer on Penny Hardaway's Memphis Tigers as they try to bounce back from consecutive losses on Saturday. That mini-slump started with a stunning blowout loss against upstart Iowa State in the Championship Game of the NIT Tip-off Tournament in Brooklyn last week. The Tigers followed that up with a narrow three-point setback at Georgia. Here, they'll be looking to come away with something positive from this two-game SEC road trip. Ole Miss, on the other hand, is 'fat and happy' off consecutive double-digit wins albeit against vastly inferior opponents. In fact, this is the first time the Rebels will be in an underdog role this season so there is some reason to pump the brakes on their solid 5-2 record. Take Memphis (7*). | |||||||
12-02-21 | Valparaiso v. Drake -12.5 | 66-73 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Drake minus the points over Valparaiso at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Drake Bulldogs on Thursday night as they look to put a three-game losing streak behind them and lay waste to an overmatched Valpo squad. We actually won with Valpo last week as it staged an outright upset of Jacksonville State. Since then, the Beacons have gone 2-1 but will be taking a big step up in class in their Missouri Valley Conference opener against Drake on Thursday. The Bulldogs, along with Loyola-Chicago, can be considered the class of the MVC. It's a competitive conference to be sure, as we noted in last night's play on Evansville over Southern Illinois. However, it is a little top-heavy. Yes, the Bulldogs enter this game on a three-game slide, but those three losses came against very capable opponents in Belmont, Alabama and North Texas and all three games were close. Prior to that stretch, Drake had opened the season with three straight wins including a 99-50 dismantling of South Dakota. While I do think we've seen the best we're going to get from Valpo (in that comeback win over Jacksonville State), I don't believe the same can be said for Drake. This is certainly a game that it has had circled since that loss to North Texas last weekend and I look for the Bulldogs to roll, noting that they've gone 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite, outscoring opponents by a whopping average margin of 23.9 points. Meanwhile, Valpo is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 80+ points in its last contest, as is the case here. Take Drake (10*). | |||||||
12-02-21 | Bulls v. Knicks +2 | Top | 119-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Knicks have been extremely uneven this season. They check into Thursday's showdown against the division-rival Bulls sporting an 11-10 overall record. They have managed to split a pair of meetings with the Bulls, both in Chicago, with the lone loss coming by a single point. I simply feel that the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this one. Chicago couldn't miss in Tuesday's blowout home win over the Hornets. The Bulls shot just shy of 60% from the field in that game. I wouldn't count on a repeat performance here. The Knicks allowed the Nets to shoot better than 48% two nights ago - only the third time this season they've yielded north of 48% shooting. The last two times they did so, they held their next opponent to just 38.5% and 35.5% shooting, going 2-0 SU and ATS in those two contests. Here, we'll note that the Knicks are an incredible 30-9 ATS in their last 39 games with a pointspread between +3 and -3, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.2 points. They're also 37-19 ATS in their last 56 games when revenging a same-season loss against an opponent. While New York is likely to be without R.J. Barrett in this one that's perhaps not as big of a concern as it's being made out to be as Barrett has struggled, topping out at 17 points in his last 12 games after scoring 20 points or more in his previous five contests. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
12-01-21 | Rockets v. Thunder -3 | Top | 114-110 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Oklahoma City minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. It's never easy to back a team after it just got hammered by the same opponent two nights earlier, but that's what we're going to do with the Thunder on Wednesday. Houston rolled to a 102-89 win over Oklahoma City on Monday - marking its third straight victory. Keep in mind, all three of those wins came at home. The Rockets check in 0-11 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 12.5 points this season. The Thunder enter this contest riding a six-game losing streak but Monday's blowout loss was actually their first ATS loss in their last seven games. After shooting a woeful 35.6% from the field on Monday, I look for a strong bounce-back performance here as the schedule only gets tougher with a three-game road trip up next. Note that the Rockets are just 12-23 ATS the last 35 times they've come off an ATS victory, outscored by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
12-01-21 | South Carolina v. Coastal Carolina +6.5 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Coastal Carolina plus the points over South Carolina at 7 pm et on Wednesday. While the Coastal Carolina football program has been making most of the noise going back to last season, the basketball team can play as well. The Chanticleers check in just 2-2 on the season but I expect them to give South Carolina a run on Wednesday night. The Gamecocks have reeled off four straight wins, going 3-1 ATS in the process. It's worth noting though that they're turning the ball over 17 times a game compared to Coastal Carolina's average of only 10. Riding a winning streak and with a big showdown against Georgetown on deck, it would be easy for the relatively inexperienced to overlook the Chanticleers here. Note that South Carolina has been outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points in its last 15 games when coming off a win and has also been outscored by 3.0 points on average in its last 21 lined road contests. Take Coastal Carolina (10*). | |||||||
11-29-21 | Hornets +5.5 v. Bulls | 119-133 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. With the Hornets coming off an embarrassing loss in Houston two nights ago the majority of bettors will undoubtedly be looking to back the Bulls at home on Monday night. After all, Chicago has taken three straight meetings in this series, both SU and ATS. It is worth noting, however, that the last time the Bulls hosted the Hornets they closed as just 1.5-point favorites. I believe we're getting considerable value with Charlotte here, noting that despite Saturday's upset loss still checks in a solid 7-2-1 ATS over its last 10 games. The Bulls, meanwhile, have dropped the cash in three of their last four contests and have only managed to split their last 14 games from an ATS perspective. It's certainly worth noting that the Hornets are averaging an impressive 114.2 points per game against opponents that allow an average of just 107.0 ppg this season. While their defensive play has left a lot to be desired the Bulls aren't particularly imposing from an offensive standpoint, averaging just 106.5 ppg and outscoring the opposition by only 3.3 points on average at the United Center this season. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
11-27-21 | Pelicans v. Jazz -12.5 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over New Orleans at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. I think a lot of bettors are spooked when it comes to the Jazz and can you really blame them after Utah dropped a stunning 98-97 decision against these same Pelicans on Friday as a 13.5-point favorite. I'm not overly concerned about the Jazz's uneven play recently and fully expect them to bounce back with a strong performance on Saturday night. Last night's game really amounted to a 'perfect storm' of sorts for the Jazz. Rudy Gobert scored only nine points. Donovan Mitchell shot 6-of-21 from the field. Jordan Clarkson - usually a steady contributor off the bench - shot 3-of-12 and managed only seven points. There was really nothing particularly special about New Orleans' performance. It scored right around its season average on the road. While the Pelicans have now won consecutive games, keep in mind, this is a team that has lost games by 16 points in Chicago, 13 points in Sacramento, 41 points in Golden State, 16 points in Dallas, 15 points in Miami, 17 points in Indiana...you get the picture. Meanwhile, half of Utah's six home victories this season have come by at least 16 points. The Jazz check in a solid 65-42 ATS when playing at home off an upset loss as a home favorite. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
11-25-21 | Maryland v. Richmond +1.5 | 86-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Richmond plus the points over Maryland at 7 pm et on Thursday. Maryland got the bounce-back win it was looking for last time out but still didn't look overly impressive in a narrow two-point victory over Hofstra. While the Terps check in 4-1 SU on the campaign, they're just 1-4 ATS. Here, they'll face a Richmond squad that has been a little uneven in the early going but did deliver a 13-point win over aforementioned Hofstra last time out. The Spiders are shooting 48.3% against opponents that yield just 41.3% so far this season. Their three-point shooting has been terrific in the early going, knocking down their shots from long range at a 41% clip. By contrast, the Terps are shooting a miserable 25.4% from three-point range. Look for Richmond to stage the minor 'upset' here. Take Richmond (5*). | |||||||
11-25-21 | UC San Diego -1 v. Southern Miss | 55-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-San Diego minus the points over Southern Miss at 7 pm et on Thursday. Southern Miss is coming off a double-digit win while Cal-San Diego suffered a double-digit loss in the two teams' respective tournament openers. Neither result was all that unexpected. Nor will the result be here as I believe the correct team is favored in this matchup. Cal-San Diego is off to a terrific 4-1 start. In its first year of Division-I basketball it struggled last season but that had a lot to do with a top-heavy Big West schedule. Here, in year two I look for UCSD to enjoy a lot more success, as we've already seen in the early going. While Southern Miss has scored 80+ points in consecutive games, that's had more to do with the level of opposition it has faced than anything else. I see this as a bad matchup for the Golden Eagles as they generally like to force opponents to shoot from the outside, an area where UCSD is highly-proficient, having knocked down just shy of 45% of its three-point attempts this season entering yesterday's action. Also note that UCSD has been better not only at getting to the free throw line, but making good on its attempts (76% entering yesterday's game compared to 69% for Southern Miss). The Golden Eagles are projected to finish near the bottom of C-USA this season while I believe UCSD is capable of making some noise and at the very least making life difficult on the top-flight teams in the Big West. This is a good measuring stick game for UCSD, especially off the 10-point loss to Montana and I look for it to come up with a victory. Take Cal-San Diego (8*). | |||||||
11-25-21 | Auburn v. Loyola-Chicago +2.5 | Top | 62-53 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Auburn at 2:30 pm et on Thursday. The Ramblers fell just short on a bucket in the final seconds against favored Michigan State yesterday afternoon (but did manage the narrow cover). They'll certainly want to come away from this tournament with something and I like their chances of picking up a win against Auburn, which is fresh off an emotionally and physically draining overtime loss at the hands of UConn yesterday afternoon. Credit Loyola-Chicago to sticking to its guns and turning yesterday's game against Michigan State into somewhat of a slugfest. The Ramblers fell behind 9-0 right out of the gate in that one but quickly rallied and ultimately took the Spartans right down to the wire. That's what we want to see from a mid-major in an early statement game against a top level opponent. The case can certainly be made that Michigan State is by no means a national title contender (not at this point anyway) but it was a test nonetheless - one that Loyola-Chicago passed as far as I'm concerned. Now comes and excellent chance for the Ramblers to bounce right back and pick up a victory that would certainly look good on their resume come March. Auburn certainly entered this tournament with its eyes on a championship and is obviously disappointed to be playing in the third-place game on Thursday. I feel the Tigers are a little overrated at this point, carrying a number-19 ranking into this tournament despite having not really faced anyone of true substance. I don't think they're going to like the type of game that the Ramblers will undoubtedly present them with here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |