Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-28-23 | Warriors v. Kings -2 | Top | 123-124 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Kings enter this game with double-revenge on their minds having dropped both previous matchups with the Warriors this season. That comes on the heels of a hard-fought seven-game series last April. There has really been little separating these two teams, noting the most recent matchup went right down to the wire with the Warriors prevailing by a single point in San Francisco on November 1st. Since then, the Kings have gotten healthier with De'Aaron Fox returning to the lineup. They snapped a two-game slide with a dominant 124-111 win over the red hot Timberwolves in Minnesota on Friday. The Warriors are coming off a less impressive victory (but non-cover) at home against the rebuilding Spurs on Saturday. Note that Golden State is mired in an 0-7-1 ATS slide. I think their better opportunity to snap out of that funk comes on Thursday night at home against the Clippers. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are just 10-22 ATS in their last 32 road games following a win. Take Sacramento (10*). | |||||||
11-28-23 | NC State +1.5 v. Ole Miss | 52-72 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State plus the points over Ole Miss at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Even as they come off consecutive ATS losses including their first SU defeat of the season against BYU last time out, I'm high on this Wolfpack squad and like their chances of handing Ole Miss its first loss of the campaign on Tuesday. Ole Miss is off to a perfect 5-0 start to head coach Chris Beard's tenure yet it checks in winless ATS at 0-5. The Rebels rank 33rd in the country in luck rating according to KenPom, meaning they're undoubtedly not quite as good as their flawless record indicates. In fact, KenPom has the Rebels 73 spots behind N.C. State in the overall rankings. Home court does matter and this will be N.C. State's first true road game of the season. However, we'll note that Ole Miss is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a victory and 7-17 ATS in its last 24 lined home games when listed as a favorite. Take N.C. State (8*). | |||||||
11-27-23 | Pelicans -3.5 v. Jazz | 112-114 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Jazz took the opener of this two-game set in Utah on Saturday but I look for the Pelicans to answer back on Monday. Utah snapped a four-game losing streak with that victory. Despite the win, it remains in a bit of a funk offensively having knocked down 38 or fewer field goals in three straight contests. New Orleans entered Saturday's game on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS run. The Pelicans had made good on more than 40 field goals in seven straight contests prior to Saturday's poor performance. They also enter Monday's game having held three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
11-25-23 | 76ers v. Thunder +1.5 | 127-123 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Philadelphia at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. As much as I hate to fade the 76ers coming off a loss, there’s just too much upside to ignore with the 11-4 Thunder. I think this is a bit of a tough spot for Philadelphia to get up for in an early start on Saturday, even coming off that double-digit defeat in Minnesota. While the Thunder’s offense may grab the headlines, their defense has been on point as they check in ranked top-five in the league in defensive rating. That matched up with a top-five scoring offense is tough to beat. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
11-24-23 | Spurs v. Warriors -10.5 | 112-118 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over San Antonio at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is a big spot for the Warriors as they look to start to turn things around after yet another loss suffered two nights ago in Phoenix. Golden State checks in a miserable 0-6-1 ATS over its last seven games but is favored by double-digits for a reason here, at least in my opinion. After Friday's game the Warriors will have three days off - they certainly don't want to spend that time stewing over another poor performance. San Antonio is coming off an ATS victory over the Clippers on Wednesday but that was of little consolation as it dropped its 10th game in a row SU. The Spurs offense has run dry, knocking down fewer than 40 field goals in four of their last five games. The future may be bright in San Antonio, but this continues to be a trying 23-24 campaign. Note that the Warriors check in a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games following a loss to a division opponent, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 17.9 points in that situation. Golden State is also 17-5 ATS in its last 22 home games after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS, which is also the situation here. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
11-23-23 | NC State -7.5 v. Vanderbilt | 84-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on N.C. State minus the points over Vanderbilt at 10 pm et on Thursday. N.C. State hasn't really played anyone yet so it's tough to get a great gauge on just how good the Wolfpack are. I expect Kevin Keatts' crew to relish the opportunity to face a 'name' opponent from the SEC in Las Vegas on Thursday. Vanderbilt hasn't accomplished much since Jerry Stackhouse took over as head coach in 2019. While the Commodores enter this game off three straight victories, don't forget they opened their season with an outright loss as 16-point favorites against Presbyterian. Vandy's opponents have been stuffing the stat sheet as it has allowed 25, 24, 29 and 28 made field goals despite holding three of four opponents to 57 or fewer field goal attempts. The Wolfpack appear to be in midseason form offensively, knocking down 29, 29 and 32 field goals in their first three contests. Take N.C. State (8*). | |||||||
11-22-23 | Mavs -1.5 v. Lakers | Top | 104-101 | Win | 100 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers ran away with last night's lopsided win over the Jazz on this same floor but should find the going much tougher on Wednesday as they host a rested Mavericks squad. Dallas checks in off consecutive losses but those came on back-to-back nights against two of the league's best teams in the Bucks (on the road) and the Kings (at home). The shoe is on the other foot this time around as they enter this game on two days' rest while the Lakers expended plenty of energy running the Jazz off the court on Tuesday. Add in the fact that it's the eve of Thanksgiving and Los Angeles will likely have one eye on a four-game road trip that starts on Saturday in Cleveland and I believe it's advantage Mavs on Wednesday night. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
11-22-23 | Tennessee v. Kansas -1 | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 8 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Tennessee at 2:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Volunteers gave the Boilermakers their best punch last night but ultimately fell just short. Now they have to get right back up for Bill Self's Jayhawks, who are likely to be in a foul mood after getting blown out by Marquette last night. I thought the Vols guards matched up better against the Boilers last night than they do against the Jayhawks here. Given they fell short in that contest, I have a tough time envisioning them handing Kansas its second straight upset defeat on Wednesday. Take Kansas (8*). | |||||||
11-21-23 | Tennessee +3.5 v. Purdue | 67-71 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Purdue at 8 pm et on Tuesday. In a game with a relatively low posted total where points should come at a premium, I'll gladly gran all the points I can get with the underdog Volunteers. Note that Tennessee checks in ranked number one in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. The Vols have the experienced guard play to ultimately wear out Matt Painter's Boilermakers, who are coming off a massive statement win over Gonzaga yesterday. Purdue didn't lose its first game last season until early January. I expect the Vols to give the Boilers a run here though, noting that Tennessee is 145-107 ATS in its last 252 games as an underdog. Take Tennessee (8*). | |||||||
11-21-23 | Pacers +4.5 v. Hawks | Top | 157-152 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Hawks haven't been able to get out of their own way lately, off to an 0-2 start to their current homestand and 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over their last six games overall. Everything has seemingly been a grind for them as they've lacked offensive flow, getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in each of their last five contests. The Pacers came out rusty against the Magic on Sunday and perhaps that was to be expected following a four-day layoff. They dug themselves a massive 34-point halftime deficit against Orlando before rallying to make things respectable in the second half. Still, it was a loss so they'll be looking to bounce back here, noting they've gone a perfect 3-0 following their last three defeats. For what it's worth, the Pacers remain undefeated in the in-season tournament so they'll be looking to get a step closer to Las Vegas on Tuesday. Take Indiana (10*). | |||||||
11-20-23 | Rockets v. Warriors -7.5 | 116-121 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Houston at 10:10 pm et on Monday. The Rockets have reeled off an incredible eight straight ATS victories but are in a tough spot here, playing their third game in four nights off a hard-fought one-point loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles last night. Golden State has lost six straight games and is 0-4-1 ATS over its last five contests. It should be happy to be facing the Rockets on Monday, however, noting that the Warriors outlasted Houston 106-95 on the road back in late October. Note that Golden State is 28-9 ATS in its last 37 home games after giving up 130 or more points in its previous contest, as is the case here. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
11-20-23 | Florida State v. UNLV +4 | 83-75 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on UNLV plus the points over Florida State at 5:30 pm et on Monday. This game will be played in Daytona Beach, Florida, seemingly giving the in-state Seminoles over the Runnin' Rebels, who will be travelling across the country. That's been factored into the line, however, and I like UNLV to give Florida State all it can handle on Monday. The Rebels got off to a rough start to the campaign as they were upset by Southern University as 20-point favorites in their opener. Since the, they've bounced back by reeling off consecutive victories both SU and ATS. UNLV has posted consecutive winning seasons under head coach Kevin Kruger and they're poised for another positive campaign in 23-24. Florida State is coming off a disastrous 22-23 campaign, going 9-23. While they got off to a strong start against weak opposition this season, their first 'step up in class' game resulted in a 21-point rout at the hands of rival Florida. Safe to say the 'Noles aren't 'back' just yet and I look for them to stumble again on Monday. Take UNLV (8*). | |||||||
11-19-23 | Magic v. Pacers -4.5 | 128-116 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana minus the points over Orlando at 5:10 pm et on Sunday. I like the spot for the Pacers here as they return to the court for the first time since Tuesday to host a Magic squad that should be fat and happy off consecutive wins in Chicago. Indiana has incredibly knocked down at least 44 field goals in eight straight games. Contrast that with the slow-paced Magic, who have had a tough enough time getting an ample number of shots off let alone knocking them down, connecting on 38 or fewer field goals in four straight games entering Sunday's contest. Of course, that is by design as the Magic are one of the league's better defensive teams. I simply feel they'll have a tough time keeping pace against a fresh-legged Pacers squad as they wrap up their four-game in six-night road trip on Sunday. Take Indiana (8*). | |||||||
11-17-23 | Rockets v. Clippers -6 | 100-106 | Push | 0 | 14 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Houston at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Rockets have been one of the biggest surprises of the early season. Since starting 0-3 they've reeled off six straight wins, both SU and ATS. It is worth noting that all six of those wins came at home. They'll hit the road following a four-day layoff on Friday. The Clippers are at the opposite end of the spectrum, riding a six-game losing streak, going 1-5 ATS over that stretch. They have faced a pretty brutal recent schedule, however, but are in better position here at home following two days off to figure things out. The good news is, their issues are correctable as they simply haven't been knocking down their shots. I like the spot here before they're off for two more days prior to a two-game set in San Antonio. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
11-15-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Lakers | 125-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Kings have bounced back to deliver three straight wins following a three-game losing streak but all three of those victories came at home. I think they've had this six-game road trip circled on their calendar since an embarrassing two-game stop in Houston in which they were blown out just over a week ago. The Lakers check in to play the second of back-to-back nights after posting a blowout win over Memphis last night. Los Angeles has now won three games in a row although it went just 2-1 ATS over that stretch and has yet to deliver consecutive ATS victories this season. That's nothing new as Los Angeles is just 35-52 in its last 87 games after recording an ATS win, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points in that situation. There's no intimidation factor favoring the Lakers here as the Kings are 4-1 against them since the start of last season including a perfect 2-0 mark here in Los Angeles. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
11-15-23 | Wolves v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 115-133 | Win | 100 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the reeling Suns as they catch the Timberwolves playing on the second of back-to-back nights. Phoenix has lost consecutive games, both SU and ATS, and is just 1-5-1 ATS over its last seven contests. With that being said, it is expected to get back some reinforcements on Wednesday, including Devin Booker. It also has the benefit of having been idle since Sunday's double-digit home loss to the Thunder. The Suns are 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in seven meetings between these two teams in Phoenix since the start of the 21-22 season. Also note that they're 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring less than 100 points in their previous game, as is the case here. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
11-15-23 | Knicks -1 v. Hawks | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks were humbled by the Celtics two nights ago in Boston. They'll be happy to be in Atlanta on Wednesday, where they've had plenty of success in recent years, going 4-1 SU in their last five matchups here. New York is a long-term 63-44 against Atlanta and is in a favorable spot here, waiting for the Hawks to return home after they managed to win (and cover) in Detroit without Trae Young last night. He'll likely be back in the Hawks lineup on Wednesday - regardless, I like the Knicks to bounce back. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
11-15-23 | Cornell +3.5 v. George Mason | 83-90 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cornell plus the points over George Mason at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. While George Mason is in what figures to be a rebuilding year under first-year head coach Tony Skinn, Cornell has its best team in a number of years following consecutive winning seasons under head coach Brian Earl. Both teams check into Wednesday's sneaky-good matchup with perfect records although Cornell does have an extra game under its belt. George Mason has yet to really be tested having faced the 306th most difficult schedule in the country so far this season. The Patriots will have a tough time adapting to the Big Red's fluid, up-tempo attack on Wednesday. Look for Cornell's offense to prove to be too much. Take Cornell (8*). | |||||||
11-14-23 | Wolves v. Warriors -1.5 | 104-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Minnesota at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. With Steph Curry added to the injury report for the Warriors we've seen this line plummet. I'm willing to get behind Golden State regardless whether Curry is able to play or not on Tuesday. I think the Warriors problems right now are fixable. They've lost four of their last five contests as they've quite simply lost their shooting touch, knocking down 37 or fewer field goals in four of those games. It's been precisely the opposite for the Timberwolves, who have won six straight contests, making good on at least 43 field goals in each of their last five games. Interestingly, Minnesota has gotten off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight contests, meaning it is playing with a relatively small margin for error. I look for the Warriors to clamp down here, noting that they're 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games after losing four or five of their last six games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the T'Wolves are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games after covering the spread in at least five straight contests, which is also the situation here. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
11-14-23 | Kentucky +6 v. Kansas | 84-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky plus the points over Kansas at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. Kansas has looked every bit deserving of the number one seed so far this season but we're only two games in and blowout victories over N.C. Central and Manhattan, at home no less, were to be expected. Here, the Jayhawks will face their first real test against John Calipari's Kentucky Wildcats and I look for them to have their hands full. The Wildcats are 2-0 but are coming off an ATS loss in a 20-point win over Texas A&M-Commerce. I saw all I needed to know that Kentucky's ceiling is sky-high this season in an 86-46 dismantling of a good New Mexico State team in its season-opener. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series and the 'revenge' angle has worked over the last several years with neither side managing consecutive wins since Kansas accomplished that feat in 16-17 into 17-18. Take Kentucky (8*). | |||||||
11-12-23 | Heat v. Spurs +2 | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs have really been struggling defensively but they earn a reprieve of sorts on Sunday as they host the Heat playing in a back-to-back spot and not exactly setting the court on fire offensively. Miami has knocked down 41 or fewer field goals in eight of nine games this season, only managing to eclipse that mark in a win (but non-cover) against Washington. The Spurs check in playing well offensively, having made good on 43 or more field goals in five of their last six contests. San Antonio does figure to put some pressure on a Miami team playing on no rest, noting that the Spurs have hoisted up at least 90 field goal attempts in six straight games. While the Spurs have lost four games in a row we do know they're capable of better as they swept a two-game road set against the Suns and defeated an improved Rockets team here at home. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-11-23 | Texas Southern v. Arizona State -14.5 | 52-63 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona State minus the points over Texas Southern at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. Texas Southern stunned Arizona State as an 11-point home underdog in last year's matchup. I look for the Sun Devils to exact their revenge on Saturday afternoon in Tempe. Note that Arizona State opened the 23-24 campaign with a 71-56 loss against a good Mississippi State team. The Sun Devils showed plenty of rust offensively in that game as they knocked down only 17-of-53 field goal attempts. This matchup should provide Arizona State with ample opportunity to bounce back, noting that Texas Southern allowed New Mexico to connect on 30-of-67 field goal attempts in its season-opening 92-55 loss. Note that Texas Southern is just 4-12 ATS in its last 16 games following a loss. Take Arizona State (8*). | |||||||
11-10-23 | Thunder v. Kings +2.5 | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Kings struggled again but still managed to snap their three-game losing streak with an overtime victory over the Blazers at home on Wednesday. They'll have the benefit of staying at home as they host the Thunder on Friday night. For whatever reason, Sacramento has had Oklahoma City's number in recent years, taking six straight meetings in this series going back to December of 2021. While we often like backing the Thunder in an underdog role, that's not the case on Friday as they check in as a rare road favorite following consecutive wins (and covers) at home. Wednesday's ATS defeat may have been the last straw for some Kings bettors but we'll go the other way and call for them to snap their three-game ATS skid on Friday night. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
11-10-23 | Hornets +2.5 v. Wizards | Top | 124-117 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Southeast Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Friday. This is a quick revenge spot for the Hornets after they dropped a 132-116 decision as 2.5-point home favorites against the Wizards two nights ago. I like Charlotte's chances of rebounding here. Note that the Wizards are an awful defensive team, allowing 126.9 points per game on a blistering 51.7% shooting this season. The only reason they were able to outlast the Hornets on Wednesday was that Charlotte didn't take care of the basketball, turning it over a season-high 20 times. Note that Washington is a long-term 169-213 ATS when coming off an outright win as an underdog. The Wizards are also in a classic fade spot of mine as they return home on just one day of rest following a road trip that lasted four games or longer. Take Charlotte (10*). | |||||||
11-08-23 | Warriors v. Nuggets -3 | 105-108 | Push | 0 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors have undoubtedly had this matchup circled since dropping all three meetings with the Nuggets last season. I'm not sure it matters. Denver overcame a miserable first half against New Orleans on Monday before unloading in the final 24 minutes in a runaway 134-116 victory. It's been that kind of start to the campaign for Denver as it has very much looked like the team to beat in the Western Conference. The Warriors have covered a ton of ground in the early going this season with their current road trip already taking them to Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Detroit and now Denver. In fact, this will be Golden State's ninth game in the last 13 nights, in nine different cities. The Nuggets on the other hand have been home and cool since November 3rd and following Wednesday's contest will enjoy three off days before a game in Houston on Sunday. Note that Denver is a long-term 137-101 ATS when playing at home off consecutive home games, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
11-08-23 | Lakers -2.5 v. Rockets | 94-128 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Rockets laid waste to the Kings over the last two games and are now 3-1 on their current six-game homestand. Keep in mind, this is a team that started the campaign with three straight losses, both SU and ATS. Note that Houston is a long-term 103-136 ATS when coming off three straight ATS victories, as is the case here. The Lakers have dropped the first two games on their current road trip, most recently falling just one point short in Miami on Monday. The finale of this trip will come against a revenge-minded Suns squad in Phoenix on Friday so if they want to salvage something positive, this would appear to be the spot. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
11-06-23 | Pelicans +6 v. Nuggets | 116-134 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. The Pelicans are coming off an 18-point rout at the hands of the red hot Hawks on Saturday. While this doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back spot on paper as they head out on the road to face the defending champion Nuggets, it's worth noting that they hung with Denver in four meetings last season, going 2-2 with the two defeats coming by a combined 10 points. Denver is a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS on its current homestand, marking its first ATS winning streak this season. While New Orleans will be without C.J. McCollum for an indefinite period of time due to a lung issue, Denver could be without oft-injured Jamal Murray as he deals with a knee injury. The Pelicans are just 2-2 ATS at home this season but a perfect 2-0 ATS on the road and I look for them to run that record to 3-0 on Monday. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
11-05-23 | Grizzlies -2.5 v. Blazers | Top | 112-100 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Portland at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The upstart Blazers are coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, including an overtime victory over these same Grizzlies on Friday. I look for Memphis to answer back and notch its first victory of the campaign in Sunday's rematch. Memphis actually outshot Portland by a considerable margin on Friday but couldn't overcome a 36-13 discrepancy in terms of free throw attempts. That should even out in Sunday's contest. Note that the Grizzlies are 36-19 ATS in their last 55 games when seeking revenge for a loss in which their opponent scored at least 110 points, as is the case here. The Blazers are a long-term 43-67 ATS in an underdog role and 7-18 ATS in their last 25 contests as a home underdog of six points or less, outscored by an average margin of 7.0 points in that situation. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
11-02-23 | Magic v. Jazz | 115-113 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando minus the points over Utah at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this play sets up as the Magic got a chance to scout the Jazz first hand last night (Utah played Memphis) following a winless two-game stop-over in Los Angeles. I'm of the belief that Orlando has a chance to be a good, if not great team this season but so far it has managed only two wins in four games. The Magic should have a little extra chip on their shoulder on Thursday after they dropped both meetings between these two teams last season including a narrow four-point defeat here in Salt Lake City. Note that Orlando has generally gotten stronger as road trips have gone on in recent years, posting a 17-6 ATS mark in its last 23 road contests following consecutive games played away from home, as is the case here. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
11-01-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors are off to a perfect 4-0 start to the season after staging an 'upset' road win in New Orleans on Monday. That concluded a perfect 3-0 trip for Golden State, which began with a victory over the same Kings they'll face back home on Wednesday. I like Sacramento's chances of exacting some early season revenge as it looks to improve on its 2-1 start to the campaign. Remember, the Kings proved they could hang with the Warriors in the first round of last April's playoffs, pushing them to seven games. Sacramento won't have the services of De'Aaron Fox for an extended period of time but that's been more than factored into this line in my opinion. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
11-01-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +3.5 | Top | 89-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Denver at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. This spot sets up beautifully for the home underdog Timberwolves as they look to bring an end to the defending-champion Nuggets' perfect 4-0 start to the season. Minnesota checks in off an 'upset' road loss in Atlanta s it was crushed by 14 points on Monday. Of course, that was a letdown spot for the T'Wolves as they were fresh off a 16-point home win over the Heat two nights earlier. There's a playoff revenge angle in play here after Denver ousted Minnesota in five games in the opening round last April. That was after the T'Wolves managed to take both regular season meetings here in Minnesota. Note that Denver is a long-term 142-183 ATS when playing on the road off consecutive victories. In Minnesota's last 172 home games following an upset defeat it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 3.5 points. Take Minnesota (10*). | |||||||
11-01-23 | Wizards +8.5 v. Hawks | 121-130 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Wizards got drilled by 19 points last time out but that was against an elite Celtics squad that has come storming out of the gates this season. Here, I think Washington is catching Atlanta in a prime letdown spot with the Hawks fresh off consecutive double-digit wins to even their record at 2-2 on the season. Atlanta checks in a woeful 12-27 ATS in its last 39 games following an ATS win and 6-19 ATS in its last 25 contests after a home victory. The Hawks are also just 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an outright underdog victory, which is the situation here after their home win over the Timberwolves as 2.5-point underdogs. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
10-30-23 | Warriors v. Pelicans -3 | 130-102 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Warriors picked up their second straight victory last night in Houston but now face a difficult three-in-four spot on the road against the revenge-minded Pelicans (Golden State took the last two meetings last season). New Orleans was idle on Sunday after improving to 2-0 on the season with a nine-point win over the Knicks on Saturday. Note that the Warriors had a tough enough time just getting shots off against the Rockets last night, attempting only 81 field goals (and making just 35 of them) in the victory. The Pelicans have allowed each of their first two opponents to hoist up 90 or more field goal attempts but have defended well, allowing just 38 and 33 makes in those two contests. On the flip side, New Orleans has made good on exactly 40 field goals in consecutive games despite playing at a reasonably slow pace. Here, we'll note that Golden State checks in a woeful 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road underdog of six points or less, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 8.9 points in that situation. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
10-29-23 | Spurs v. Clippers -8.5 | 83-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over San Antonio at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Spurs picked up their first win of the Victor Wembanyama era by way of overtime at home against the Rockets two nights ago, but they needed overtime to get it. San Antonio has played about as well as you could expect offensively, knocking down exactly 46 field goals in each contest. The problem is, the Spurs also allowed a whopping 47 and 52 made field goals in those two games and now they hit the road for the first time to face a Clippers squad that will be in a foul mood after dropping a two-point decision as a road favorite in Utah on Friday. The Clippers have actually been about as efficient as any team in the league offensively through two games, shooting better than 52% from the field. They figure to go off here, noting they scored 113, 119, 131 and 138 points in four matchups in this series last season. The Spurs check in a woeful 14-27 ATS in their last 41 games as a road underdog. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
10-28-23 | Bulls -1 v. Pistons | 102-118 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors let the Bulls off the hook last night as Chicago blew a big second quarter lead, trailed by a wide margin late before tying it up on a parade to the free throw line and ultimately winning by a single point in overtime. Off that shaky performance, I look for a much sharper four quarter effort from the Bulls on Saturday in Detroit. The Pistons won outright as 4.5-point underdogs in Charlotte last night - their second straight ATS win to open the campaign. Detroit's first two opponents struggled to knock down their shots but I'm willing to chalk that up more as early season rust rather than the Pistons defensive prowess. Chicago has owned this series in Motown in recent years and I look for it to continue its dominance here. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
10-27-23 | Clippers v. Jazz +3.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:40 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this play sets up as bettors overreact to season-opening results from these two teams. The Clippers turned in a near-flawless performance but that was at home against what projects to be one of the league's worst teams in the Blazers. Meanwhile, the Jazz dropped a lopsided decision at home but that was against one of the league's true up-and-coming teams in the Kings. I look for the script to flip on Friday night, noting that Utah is a long-term 42-14 straight-up at home against Los Angeles including four straight wins going back to the start of the 2021-22 season. This is one of those tough one-game road trips for the Clippers, in altitude no less, before they return home for winnable games against the Spurs and Magic on Sunday and Tuesday. Should the Jazz fall again here, they'll be starting at a very tough start with a two-game trip to Phoenix and Denver on deck. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
10-27-23 | Raptors v. Bulls -2 | 103-104 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Toronto at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Bulls on Friday as they look to split their season-opening two-game homestand after dropping their first game by 20 points against Oklahoma City. The Thunder quite simply shot the lights out in that game. Chicago actually held Oklahoma City to only 82 field goal attempts but it made good on 45 of them. If the Bulls can limit the pace again here they should be in good shape, noting the Raptors knocked down just 36-of-90 field goal attempts in their three-point win over Minnesota on Wednesday. In that contest, the Raptors allowed the Timberwolves to hoist up a whopping 101 FG attempts. Needless to say, Minnesota didn't make the most of its opportunities, connecting on only 34. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series with the Bulls being the lone team to grab the cash on the road (in the most recent matchup between these teams last April) over that stretch. Here, we'll note that Chicago is 26-14 ATS when playing consecutive home games over the last two seasons and 35-19 ATS in the role of home favorite over the last three seasons. Toronto is a woeful 10-24 ATS after holding its previous opponent to 100 points or less over the last three seasons. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
10-25-23 | Hawks -2.5 v. Hornets | 110-116 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. When it comes to most sports, I don't put a great deal of stock into preseason results. I generally make an exception when it comes to the NBA, however. There's more of a tendency to see regular rotations, even if the starters aren't playing regular minutes, and we can get a feel for the way teams will play once the regular season commences. Here, we'll lay the points with the Hawks as they open their campaign against the Hornets in Charlotte. Atlanta had a productive preseason, going 3-2 while limiting opponents to 86, 89, 81, 83 and 86 field goal attempts. The Hornets on the other hand got off 93, 94, 88 and 88 FG attempts in their four preseason contests but knocked down 37 or fewer of those attempts in three of those games. In fact, the only game where they were able to get anything going offensively they were facing Oklahoma City's 'B' squad (Charlotte used most of its regular starters and shot 52% from the field and still won by only two points). Atlanta does enter this game with 'double revenge' having dropped its last two meetings with Charlotte last season. Note that the Hornets haven't won three straight matchups in this series since posting five straight victories over the Hawks from 2017 to 2018. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
06-04-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 111-108 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Miami at 8 pm et on Sunday. I'm not sure that Game 2 of this series sets up all that much differently than Game 1, which was won by the Nuggets by a score of 104-93. As I noted in my analysis of that contest, this isn't a favorable matchup for the Heat, particularly from an offensive standpoint. Miami's offensive ceiling appears to be fairly low, noting that it has not knocked down an identical 39 field goals in all three meetings with the Nuggets this season. In Game 1, the Heat actually got off a whopping 96 field goal attempts. I expect to see Denver tighten things up considerably from a defensive standpoint here. On the flip side, the Nuggets made good on 45 and 44 field goals in the two regular season matchups between these two teams but connected on 'only' 40 in Game 1. That was on just 79 FG attempts, however. This line may seem steep until you realize that Denver has outscored opponents by an average margin of 10.1 points this season. Much like in Game 1, we'll again note that the Heat are 0-11 ATS after holding consecutive opponents to 105 points or less this season, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
06-01-23 | Heat v. Nuggets -8.5 | 93-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll lay the points with the Nuggets in Game 1 of The Finals on Thursday. Miami of course checks in off an incredible seven-game series against the Celtics, going 5-2 ATS along the way. Note that the Heat were contained offensively for the most part in the latter stages of that series, knocking down 42 or fewer field goals in each of the final four games. I feel Miami's offensive ceiling in this particular matchup with the Nuggets is rather low, noting that it made good on an identical 39 field goals in each of two regular season meetings. In fact, the Heat have knocked down 40 or fewer field goals nine of the last 10 matchups in this series. Denver on the other hand has made good on 42 or more field goals in six straight meetings and 45 or more twice over that stretch. While this line may seem steep, it's worth noting that the Nuggets are outscoring opponents by 10.1 points on average. Also note that the Heat are 0-10 ATS this season when coming off consecutive games in which they held the opposition to 105 points or fewer, as is the case here. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
05-25-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. As much as I'd like to see this series get extended (more basketball is always a good thing), I think there's a good chance we see the Heat close the Celtics out on Thursday. Incredibly, the ATS winner has won straight-up in 31 straight meetings in this series so a sprinkle on the Heat moneyline could be well worth your while. Regardless, we'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Heat here as the series shifts back to Boston for Game 5. Miami is on an incredible run right now having not lost consecutive games since a three-game skid from March 25th to 29th. The Heat have really locked in defensively, holding each of their last 13 opponents to 43 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Celtics have made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 10 straight contests. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup, noting that it has topped out at 46 made field goals against Miami this season and that came in a game where the Heat were without Jimmy Butler. Even in Game 4 two nights ago, when the Celtics brought their 'A' game, performing about as well as you could expect at both ends of the floor, they still won by 'only' 17 points, noting that the margin was 15 points before a meaningless bucket on the C's final possession. For its part, Miami couldn't have played much worse, connecting on just 34-of-78 field goal attempts. Here, we'll note that the Heat are 40-25 ATS as an underdog over the last two seasons, actually managing to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Celtics are a long-term 91-123 ATS when coming off a double-digit road victory. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-22-23 | Nuggets v. Lakers -3 | Top | 113-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Denver at 8:30 pm et on Monday. After watching the Celtics roll over in embarrassing fashion last night, few are probably expecting much from the Lakers as they face elimination at the hands of the Nuggets on Monday. I actually think we will see some fight from Los Angeles here, noting that it has been competitive for the most part in this series and is in line for a strong bounce-back performance offensively following consecutive subpar showings. The Lakers have made good on just 36 and 38 field goals in their last two games and that's notable as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games just four times previously this season, averaging 41 made field goals in their next contest. While the Lakers have now lost three games in a row they haven't suffered a four-game losing streak since back in December. They've also been terrific in these playoffs following an ATS defeat, reeling off five straight ATS wins in that situation entering Monday's contest. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have now won five games in a row - their longest win streak since reeling off nine straight victories back in January. Denver is just 5-13 ATS when playing on the road following consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 5.6 points in that situation. The Nuggets are also 9-18 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive victories this season. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
05-21-23 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 102-128 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 15 m | Show |
Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics have dug themselves an 0-2 hole in this series but I don't think they're about to hit the panic button just yet. After all, there's no real intimidation factor in play as they head to Miami, where they've gone 5-2 in seven meetings since the start of last season including three double-digit victories. The fact that Boston has dropped consecutive games both SU and ATS is notable as it hasn't lost three straight contests since March 3rd to 6th. To find the last time the Celtics dropped the cash in more than two straight games you would have to go back to February 27th to March 5th when they lost four in a row ATS. The Heat have now won four straight meetings in this series. That's their longest winning streak in this matchup since way back in 2004. Here, we'll note that Boston is 12-2 ATS when coming off consecutive outright defeats as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 11.2 points in that situation. The C's are also a long-term 145-109 ATS when playing on the road seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent. Meanwhile, the Heat are 13-27 ATS off an ATS victory this season and 9-18 ATS when coming off consecutive SU wins. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
05-19-23 | Heat v. Celtics -8.5 | 111-105 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Miami at 8:30 pm et on Friday. The Heat pulled off a stunner in Game 1 to steal home court advantage and at the very least a split in the first two games here in Boston. Incredibly, the ATS winner has now won the last 28 meetings in this series straight-up including 13 outright underdog victories. I look for that trend to continue on Friday but with the Celtics coming out on the winning end this time around. It certainly appeared as if the Celtics thought the Heat would simply roll over and concede Game 1 after Boston took control late in the first half to build a nine-point halftime lead. Instead, the Heat came out on fire in the third quarter, took control of the game and cruised the rest of the way. Note that Miami knocked down 46 field goals in the victory. We haven't seen it connect on 46 or more field goals in consecutive games since November 30th and December 2nd (oddly enough both games were against Boston) so we can count on some offensive regression here. The Celtics have now dropped three straight meetings in this series (both SU and ATS) and that's notable as they haven't lost four straight matchups against Miami since 2004. Here, we'll note that the Heat are just 8-18 ATS when coming off consecutive wins this season, as is the case here, while the Celtics are 19-9 ATS when coming off an upset loss at home over the last two seasons. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
05-17-23 | Heat +8.5 v. Celtics | 123-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Boston at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. I'm just not buying what the oddsmakers are selling with the Celtics laying a generous helping of points in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final on Wednesday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive ATS defeats - their longest ATS losing skid since dropping the cash in three straight games from March 25th to 29th. Prior to that you would have to go back to February 13th to 25th - spanning across the All-Star break - to find a previous occasion where Miami lost more than two games in a row ATS. Meanwhile, the Celtics have covered the spread in consecutive games. They haven't strung together more than two ATS wins in a row since a six-game ATS winning streak that stretched from the last two games of the regular season into their opening round mismatch with the Hawks. I don't believe Boston's offensive ceiling is all that high in this particular matchup. The Celtics topped out at 46 made field goals in four regular season matchups between these two teams and that performance came in a game where the Heat were missing Jimmy Butler back in late-November (Boston won that game by 13 points). In fact, the C's have knocked down 43 or fewer field goals in 11 of the last 12 meetings in this series. That's not to say the Heat have lit it up from the field in this matchup, however, I do feel there's a path for Miami to effectively shorten this game, noting that it checks in having limited the Knicks to 86 or fewer field goal attempts in five of six games last round. The Celtics have been a more up-tempo team than we've been accustomed to seeing as a whole this season, but enter this series having hoisted up fewer than 90 field goal attempts in 12 of their last 16 contests. Finally, we'll note that the Celtics are just 9-21 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 1.8 points on average in that situation. Take Miami (8*). | |||||||
05-10-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -7 | Top | 106-121 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Wednesday. The Warriors saw their fourth quarter lead fizzle in Game 4 of this series on Monday and now they find themselves facing elimination as they return home for Game 5 on Wednesday. I expect them to answer back, noting they're off consecutive losses but haven't dropped three games in a row since March 15th to 18th. That also marked the last time they went three consecutive games without posting an ATS victory. Meanwhile, the Lakers have won back-to-back games and we've seen this story before in these playoffs as they're 0-2 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive victories, outscored by 17 and 27 points in those two contests. Also note that the Warriors are 12-3 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 11.0 points in that situation. They're also 13-3 ATS when playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 9.4 points on average in that spot. The Warriors quite simply went cold from the field in the last two games but did manage to get off 91 field goal attempts in one of those contests while getting back to 40 or more made field goals in the other. They have been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in their last two games. On nine previous occasions where that occurred this season, they responded by averaging 121.8 points in their next contest. I like that Golden State continues to play well defensively, having limited seven straight and an incredible 20 of its last 20 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While there is a fairly distinct offensive floor in place for the Lakers in this particular matchup, I don't believe their ceiling is all that high. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-08-23 | Warriors +3.5 v. Lakers | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Monday. The Lakers thrashed the Warriors by 30 points on Saturday as Golden State had a miserable night shooting the basketball, connecting on just 36-of-91 field goal attempts in the loss. Hidden in that lopsided result was the fact that the Warriors held their sixth straight opponent to 43 or fewer made field goals. Golden State has now limited an incredible 19 of its last 20 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. I am confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back offensively here, noting that they've averaged 120.0 points per game when coming off a contest in which they made good on fewer than 40 field goals this season. We can project Golden State to have plenty of scoring opportunities in this game as the Lakers have now yielded more than 90 field goal attempts to seven straight opponents. While Los Angeles has hung tough in this series going back to the start of the regular season, I don't feel it has all that high of an offensive ceiling, noting that it has topped out at 42 made field goals in seven matchups. Here, we'll note that the Warriors are 22-10 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. This is also one our favorite fade spots for the Lakers, as they're a woeful 5-17 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home victory over the last three seasons. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
05-05-23 | Nuggets v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 16 h 39 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Denver at 10 pm et on Friday. The word 'sweep' is being thrown around quite a bit as this series shifts to Phoenix with the Suns licking their wounds following consecutive double-digit losses in Denver. Yes, the Suns are in tough with Chris Paul sidelined, likely for the next three games, due to a groin injury suffered in Game 2. His absence likely means more time with the ball in the hands of Devin Booker and Kevin Durant and I don't think it's a stretch to say that duo is likely relishing the opportunity to play 'hero ball' on Friday night. Cam Payne and Damion Lee project to absorb Chris Paul's minutes. Both struggled mightily in Game 2 of this series but I'm confident they can bounce back at home. Payne in particular has shown flashes of brilliance over the course of his young career and this is obviously a big opportunity to showcase his talent. While the Nuggets have won consecutive games to open this series, they're heading into uncharted territory now, having now won more than two meetings in a row against the Suns since 2019-20 when they reeled off five straight victories in this series (3-2 ATS). Here, we'll note that Denver is a long-term 126-169 ATS when playing on the road after winning its last two games ATS. Worse still, the Nuggets check in 6-17 ATS when coming off consecutive double-digit wins over the last three seasons. Phoenix on the other hand has gone 28-15 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.8 points in that situation. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
05-05-23 | Celtics v. 76ers +2.5 | 114-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Friday. The Celtics made the necessary adjustments after a poor defensive showing in Game 1 of this series and ultimately thrashed the 76ers by 34 points in Game 2 on Wednesday. I expect the 76ers to answer back as the series shifts to Philadelphia for Game 3 on Friday. While it's difficult to term any playoff game as a 'throwaway affair' but I think Game 2 of this series did quickly devolve into that type of contest for the 76ers. They ultimately hoisted up only 79 field goal attempts (and connected on just 31) in that uninspiring effort. Of course, the Sixers had already accomplished what they set out to do in the first two games in Boston and that was earn a split. A letdown was almost surely in order. Here, I'm confident it will be Philadelphia that makes the necessary adjustments, noting that it allowed Boston to get off 92 field goal attempts in Game 2 - the first time in seven games it yielded more than 83 FG attempts to its opponent. Still, the Sixers have limited seven straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. While Philadelphia has allowed 110.2 points per game overall this season, that number drops to 104.3 ppg allowed when seeking revenge for a loss in which its opponent scored 110 or more points, as is the case here, outscoring foes by an average margin of 7.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Boston averages 116.1 points per game on the road this season but that scoring average drops to 110.7 ppg when coming off a win over a division opponent. Finally, we'll note that the 76ers are 42-26 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent under the guidance of head coach Doc Rivers, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Thursday. The Lakers stunned the Warriors by a score of 117-112 in Game 1 of this series on Tuesday as Golden State had an awful shooting night and ultimately fell just short. I'm confident we'll see the Warriors bounce back in Game 2 on Thursday. Note that Golden State got off a whopping 106 field goal attempts in the series-opener. That marked the sixth time since February 23rd that the Warriors hoisted up 100 or more field goal attempts. The Lakers haven't had the ability (or interest) in limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities, yielding 90 or more field goal attempts in 10 of their last 14 contests. Give a team as talented as the Warriors enough opportunities and they're going to take advantage and I think we'll see that on Thursday. On the flip side, Golden State allowed Los Angeles to knock down 43-of-92 field goal attempts in Game 1 of this series. Interestingly, the Warriors have now held 17 of their last 18 opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals. That's impressive when you consider each of their last 14 opponents have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts. Here, we'll note that Golden State is 32-18 ATS when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, as is the case here (the Lakers have actually won four straight meetings in this series). While the Warriors have averaged 118.6 points per game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 1.7 points, they've scored an average of 120.3 points per game while outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points on average when coming off an ATS loss (15-6 ATS in that situation). Finally, the Lakers are 15-29 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS victories over the last three seasons, which is the situation here. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Atlanta at 8:30 pm et on Thursday. The majority of the teams looking to 'bounce back' in NBA playoff action last night simply didn't, with the Cavaliers and Bucks both eliminated on their home floor and the Kings pushed to the brink of elimination with a home defeat against the Warriors - their third loss in a row. Only the Grizzlies managed to fight back. I only say point that out as I do expect the Celtics to respond positively following their stunning home loss to the Hawks two nights ago. Boston appeared to have that game (and the series) sewn up but as has inexplicably happened on multiple occasions this season, it let down its guard and now is forced to go back to work on the road on Thursday. Note that the Celtics are 39-26 ATS when coming off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 6.5 points on average in that situation. Atlanta on the other hand checks in a woeful 7-19 ATS when coming off an outright win as an underdog over the last two seasons, as is the case here. While the return of Dejounte Murray from suspension figures to give the Hawks a boost, it also serves to take some opportunities away from Trae Young, who I think thrives when forced to shoulder the entire offensive load, as we saw in Game 5 on Tuesday. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks -11 | Top | 128-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Eastern Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Miami at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. The Heat pulled off an improbable home sweep of the Bucks in Games 3 and 4 of this series and head to Milwaukee with a commanding 3-1 series lead. I expect the Bucks to answer back on Wednesday, however. Consider Game 4 of this series the 'Jimmy Butler Game' as he went off for 56 points with the rest of the Heat players essentially left to play bit parts. Despite being held to 87 field goal attempts or less in all four games in this series, the Heat have scored above their season scoring average in all four contests thanks to knocking down 50, 45, 45 and 43 field goals. Interestingly, Game 4 was actually their worst shooting performance of the series yet they won in a rout. Here, I'm confident we'll see a positive response from the Bucks defensively. Note that prior to this series, Miami had made good on 43 or fewer field goals in 25 of its previous 30 contests. Despite the loss in the same situation in Game 4, the Bucks are still 11-2 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this season, averaging well north of their season scoring average with 120.0 points per game in that situation. When coming off consecutive ATS losses this season (12-game sample size), as is the case here, Milwaukee has averaged 123.9 points per game. In the long-term picture, the Bucks are 71-46 ATS when playing at home off consecutive defeats. This has typically been a poor spot for the Heat this season as they're a woeful 1-10 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games, averaging only 104.8 points per game in that situation. Over the last two seasons, the Heat have gone 4-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six contests ATS, as is the case here, averaging a similarly poor 104.9 ppg along the way. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
04-26-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -4 | 99-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. After stealing a split in the first two games of this series in Memphis the Lakers held serve in Games 3 and 4 at home, including an overtime victory last time out. Needless to say, that most recent contest could have gone either way and I certainly don't think the Grizzlies will feel like they're out of this series despite being down 3-1. Extended ATS winning streaks haven't been commonplace for the Lakers in recent years, noting that they've gone 15-28 ATS following two or more ATS victories in a row over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Worse still, they're just 8-19 ATS when coming off consecutive home wins over the same stretch. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, check in 19-7 when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.0 points in that situation. They've proven to be a resilient team, going 17-6 ATS after suffering consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.1 points on average in that spot. Despite losing both Games 3 and 4 in Los Angeles, Memphis still held the Lakers to just 41 made field goals in each contest (including an overtime game) and have now limited five of their last eight foes to 42 or fewer made field goals. Following a late season offensive surge, the Lakers have connected on 41 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games. I also feel that Los Angeles is giving up far too many scoring opportunities, having yielded 89 or more field goal attempts in regulation time in six of its last seven contests. Look for the Grizzlies to take advantage on Wednesday. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
04-26-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | 106-95 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over New York at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Garden felt like the Garden again as the Knicks rolled to consecutive victories over the Cavaliers on Friday and Sunday, grabbing a 3-1 lead in the series as it shifts back to Cleveland for Game 5 on Wednesday. I don't expect the Cavs to roll over as they've owned a considerable home court advantage of their own all season, going 32-11 SU and 26-17 ATS while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.2 points per game. Better still, the Cavs are 10-2 ATS when playing at home after losing two of their last three games this season, outscoring the opposition by a ridculous average margin of 14.8 points in that spot. When playing at home after losing four or five of their last six games ATS this season, as is the case here, they've held opponents to just 98.1 points per game, outscoring them by 16.6 points on average. I felt that Cleveland had its share of good looks from the field in Games 3 and 4 but simply couldn't take advantage. While the Knicks have undoubtedly been good defensively, limiting the Cavs to 38 or fewer made field goals in all four games in this series, Cleveland has now limited six straight opponents to less than 40 made field goals. Here at home this season, the Cavs have held the opposition to an average of only 38 made field goals per contest. As poorly as things went for Cleveland offensively over the last couple of games, it's worth noting that it was held to fewer than 100 points in back-to-back contests only once previously this season - that coming in its regular season finale and then Game 1 of this series. We saw the Cavs bounce back from those poor performances with a resounding 107-90 win over the Knicks in Game 2. Look for them to bring their 'A' game again on Wednesday. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
04-23-23 | Kings +7.5 v. Warriors | 125-126 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento plus the points over Golden State at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. I think we're seeing an overreaction to the lopsided nature of Game 3 of this series on Thursday as the Kings suffered an expected letdown after winning the first two games of the series at home. Sacramento certainly didn't bring its 'A' game on that night, knocking down just 35-of-92 field goal attempts in the 17-point loss. I do think the potential is there for the Kings to give the Warriors a much tougher run here, noting they haven't dropped consecutive games ATS in this series since back in October and December 2021 (the two teams have met nine times since). While the Warriors have been defending reasonably well, as I noted in my analysis of Thursday's contest, I don't like the fact that they've now allowed nine straight opponents to get off 90 or more field goal attempts including 98, 92 and 92 in this series. Give a team as talented as the Kings enough scoring opportunities and they're going to take advantage. On the flip side, Game 3 marked the first time in seven games the Kings allowed an opponent to hoist up more than 90 FG attempts and they still held the Warriors to only 40 made field goals. Sacramento has limited seven straight and 10 of its last 11 foes to 44 or fewer made field goals. Golden State has been held to 43 or fewer made field goals in eight of its last 11 contests. The Warriors will get Draymond Green back from suspension for this game. I'm not sure how much of a help that really is as I liked the rotation they employed without him on Thursday with Jordan Poole and Donte DiVincenzo in particular seeing extra floor time. Finally, we'll note that the Kings are 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of just 2.2 points in that situation. They've gone 22-12 ATS when coming off a loss this season, outscoring foes by 2.7 points on average in that spot. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Sacramento at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Warriors have had no answers for the aggressiveness of De'Aaron Fox and Malik Monk through two games in this series. While the sudden absence of Draymond Green (due to suspension) doesn't figure to help matters, I actually think Golden State can spin it into a positive as it returns home in an 0-2 hole on Thursday. The absence of Green should mean more minutes for the likes of Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga and Gary Payton Jr, all of which can help out on defense but also provide more of a spark offensively. Here, we'll note that the Warriors have gone 14-6 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss this season, averaging 120.6 points per game (compared to their home season scoring average of 119.7 ppg) while outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.8 points in that situation. Better still, Golden State is 25-13 ATS at home off a loss of any kind over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 9.6 points on average in that spot. While the Kings have averaged 118.0 points per game on the road this season, that number drops to 115.4 when checking in as a road underdog. Sacramento enters this game off consecutive wins but hasn't won three straight contests since March 15th to 18th and all three of those victories came against Eastern Conference opponents. Despite their poor start in this series, the Warriors check in 8-4 ATS over their last 12 games having not dropped three in a row since, coincidentally, March 15th to 18th. While Golden State has obviously struggled to defend Sacramento at times in this series, I do think the Warriors deserve credit for their defensively play in recent weeks. Note that Golden State has held 12 straight opponents to 44 or fewer made field goals, despite nine of those foes getting off 90 or more field goal attempts. In stark contrast, the Kings have allowed 12 of their last 14 opponents to shoot 47% or better from the field. That's concerning when you consider that the Warriors have gotten off 90 or more FG attempts in five of their last seven games and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in 14 of their last 17 contests. In other words, I don't believe the sky is falling in San Francisco and expect the defending champions to get back in this series on Thursday. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
04-19-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies +1.5 | 93-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis over Los Angeles at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. We've seen a major adjustment to this pointspread since Game 1, due in large part to the up-in-the-air status of Ja Morant after he re-aggravated his hand injury in the series-opener. I believe it will prove too much of an adjustment as the Grizzlies look to answer back at home, where they're still an incredible 35-7 this season having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 10.0 points per game. Keep in mind, Memphis is accustomed to playing without Morant as it has done so on 22 occasions this season. Also note that he has topped out at 18 points in six of his last nine games so I do think his offensive production can be accounted for with Tyus Jones and Luke Kennard in particular being called upon. The Lakers are approaching uncharted territory noting that they've now won four straight games. They've only once previously won more than four games in a row this season, that coming in a five-game win streak from December 30th to January 7th. Also note that they've now covered the spread in consecutive meetings with the Grizzlies. They haven't managed to reel off three straight ATS victories in this series since way back in 2017. The fact that the Lakers pulled away in the closing minutes on Saturday sets them up in a situation where they've gone 18-35 ATS following a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are 10-2 ATS when playing at home following two or more days' rest this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 16.5 points on average in that spot. They've also 24-11 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.6 points in that situation. I could go on but the bottom line is, I don't anticipate the Lakers getting anything close to the combined 19-of-27 shooting we saw from the duo of Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura in Game 1, while the Grizzlies have proven resilient under head coach Taylor Jenkins going 23-10 ATS playing at home off a home loss and 38-22 ATS when coming off consecutive defeats. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings | 123-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento over Golden State at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. Most are expecting the Warriors to simply 'flip the switch' and play competitive basketball on the road in these playoffs but I'm not so easily convinced. Golden State actually had just nine wins in 39 road games before beating this same Kings squad (in a game where it rested most of its starters) and a down-trodden, injury-riddled Blazers team last week. Even in that win over the Kings, the Warriors still managed to get off only 78 field goal attempts. On the flip side, the Warriors, despite fighting for their playoff lives down the stretch, still allowed each of their last six opponents to hoist up at least 90 field goal attempts. The Kings figure to be poised to take advantage, noting that they average 45 made field goals per contest (on only 88 FG attempts per game) here at home this season. The Warriors won last week's meeting SU and ATS but haven't posted consecutive ATS victories in this series since late 2021. Here, we'll note that the Kings are 21-12 ATS off a loss this season and 12-1 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS, as is the case here. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
04-14-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Wolves | 95-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Friday. I just think the Timberwolves are a mess right now in all regards and don't really understand the logic behind them being favored by such a considerable margin in this play-in game against the pesky Thunder. Yes, Oklahoma City continues to struggle to contain opposing offenses. The Thunder prevailed on Wednesday in New Orleans despite allowing the Pelicans to knock down 42-of-87 field goal attempts. I'm not convinced the T'Wolves are as well-positioned to take advantage of Oklahoma City's current defensive transgressions, however. Anthony Edwards is a shell of his former self due to late-season injuries and shot a miserable 6-of-17 from the field in Tuesday's loss to the Lakers. It remains to be seen if Rudy Gobert will return after serving his one-game suspension as he deals with a bad back. The Thunder are a taxing opponent to face right now as they continue to push the pace, hoisting up 93, 97, 90 and 92 field goal attempts over their last four games. It's been a struggle for the T'Wolves to just get shots off let alone knock them down, attempting 85 or fewer field goals in four of their last five games including only 83 in Tuesday's overtime contest against the Lakers. Minnesota has picked a bad time to go in the tank offensively, making good on 41 or fewer field goals in six of its last seven games. It has also struggled to slow down the opposition, allowing 90 or more field goal attempts in seven straight contests (aided by overtime last time out). While the T'Wolves have taken three of four meetings with the Thunder this season they haven't covered the spread in consecutive matchups in this series since last season (they won the most recent meeting ATS on December 16th). Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
04-12-23 | Bulls +5.5 v. Raptors | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Toronto at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The Raptors managed to close out their regular season on a high note by blowing out the undermanned Bucks on Sunday, snapping a two-game skid in the process. I'm just not sold on this Toronto team, noting that nothing seemed to come easy for it all season, going an even 40-40 ATS (excluding pushes) and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of just 1.5 points. The Bulls were almost a mirror-image during the regular season, going 42-39 ATS while outscoring opponents by 1.3 points on average. I fully expect a tightly-contested affair between these familiar foes on Wednesday and will grab all the points I can get with the underdog Bulls. Note that Toronto did take the most recent meeting 104-98 here at home in late February. That's notable as the Raptors haven't won consecutive games against the Bulls since reeling off an incredible 12 straight victories in the series from 2017 to 2020. They haven't posted two ATS wins in a row over Chicago since March and October of 2019. Thanks to a defense that checks in having held 10 of its last 13 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, I do think the Bulls are capable of hanging with anyone on any given night. The Raps have been similarly tough to break down defensively but that only lends itself to a reasonably low-scoring game here and in that situation, I'm comfortable grabbing the generous helping of points with Chicago. Note that Toronto is just 9-21 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by just 0.5 points on average in that situation. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
04-11-23 | Hawks +5 v. Heat | Top | 116-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat easily disposed of the Hawks in the opening round of last year's Playoffs and while it's been a long time coming, Atlanta finally has a chance to get its revenge when it really matters in Tuesday's Play-In Tournament opener. Yes, these two teams met four times during the regular season with Miami taking three of those four contests as well. The Hawks know they can hang with the Heat though. Their back-to-back losses here in Miami in early March came by a combined 10 points. Interestingly, the Heat were favored by only 2.5 points in the latter of those two contests. Here, Atlanta is arguably healthier than it was then - the healthiest it has been all season in fact. While the Hawks do come in off consecutive losses, their final regular season affair was a throwaway game against the Celtics where their starters sat. Prior to dropping their final two regular season contests they had won three games in a row. They enter this game having made good on 43 or more field goals in five straight games and more than 40 in an incredible 17 of their last 18 contests. While the Heat are known for their defense, they actually haven't held an opponent to fewer than 100 points since February 27th. You would have to go all the way back to mid-January to find the last time they held an opponent under 100 points and won by more than four points. Interestingly, Miami was actually held under 100 points itself in three of its last 11 regular season contests. While the Hawks are by no means an elite defensive team and haven't been in recent years, you would have to go back a whopping 18 meetings in this series to find the last time Miami knocked down more than 43 field goals. The Hawks breezed past that mark in two of the last three matchups in this series. Finally, we'll note that Atlanta is 16-4 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.0 points. Meanwhile, the Heat check in a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games this season, which is the situation here, outscored by 8.3 points on average in that spot. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
04-05-23 | Bulls +8 v. Bucks | Top | 92-105 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We'll fade the Bucks off consecutive double-digit wins over the 76ers and Wizards as they return home in a back-to-back spot on Wednesday night. Chicago is in a back-to-back situation of its own after dropping a lopsided home decision against the Hawks last night. I can't help but feel the Bulls overlooked a Trae Young-less Atlanta squad. The Hawks were actually held to just 86 field goal attempts in that game - the eighth straight contest in which Chicago limited the opposition to 86 or fewer field goal attempts - but quite simply shot the lights out, knocking down 48 of them. I certainly don't expect the Bulls to overlook the mighty Bucks here. Note that Chicago is 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an impressive average margin of 7.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks are a long-term 103-144 ATS when playing at home after winning three of their last four games, which is the situation here, and 113-147 ATS when returning home following a road victory. Note that while the Bucks are coming off consecutive wins, they've only won three games in a row once going back to March 11th. Chicago has lost consecutive contests only once since March 8th. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
04-04-23 | Celtics v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 101-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Boston at 8 pm et on Tuesday. The 76ers predictably had their two-game winning streak snapped in Milwaukee on Sunday as the Bucks were in line for a big bounce-back performance after an embarrassing blowout loss at home against the Celtics three nights earlier. Here, I look for Philadelphia to get back on track as it hosts Boston, which comes off consecutive wins of its own and plays the front half of a back-to-back set culminating with a home game against Toronto on Wednesday. The 76ers continue to clamp down defensively, having held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a much different story for the Celtics, who have allowed 96 or more field goal attempts in each of their last four contests. While Boston has admittedly been red hot offensively it has been idle since Friday and isn't likely to afford itself nearly as many scoring opportunities as it has seen recently (91 or more FG attempts in six straight games). Note that while the Celtics are a perfect 3-0 in this series this season, they've gotten off just 82, 76 and 86 FG attempts in those three games. All three contests could have gone either way given they were all decided by single-digit margins, including a narrow three-point C's win here in Philadelphia back on February 25th. Note that the 76ers are 19-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.4 points. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
04-03-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Year. My selection is on San Diego State plus the points over Connecticut at 9:20 pm et on Monday. My handicap of this matchup is fairly straight-forward. When we last saw these two teams in the Final Four on Saturday, San Diego was fortunate to escape with a one-point win on a buzzer-beater against Florida Atlantic while Connecticut was never really challenged in a dominant double-digit victory over Miami. I can't help but feel that leaves the Aztecs a little undervalued here as I like the way they match up against the Huskies. San Diego State is capable of defending the perimeter and making UConn work for every basket, effectively able to shorten proceedings thanks to its methodical nature, not to mention its fundamentally-sound defense. Note that the Aztecs rank fourth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, having faced the 16th toughest slate of offensive opponents (both according to KenPom). While UConn has run the table against non-conference opponents, it also faced just the 210th most difficult non-conference schedule. In stark contrast, San Diego State went up against the 17th toughest non-conference slate. Lines are obviously going to be extremely tight at this stage of the tournament. I've become a fan of San Diego State head coach Brian Dutcher over the course of this tournament and like the fact that the Aztecs have gone 44-31 ATS when coming off an ATS loss under his guidance, as is the case here. UConn enters this game on the heels of five straight ATS wins and the last time it accomplished that feat it lost its next game outright as a four-point favorite in the Big East Tournament against Marquette. Take San Diego State (10*). | |||||||
03-31-23 | Pistons +5 v. Rockets | 115-121 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this game on Friday. The Pistons have at least continued to play some defense, allowing 38, 44, 41, 45 and 39 made field goals over their last five games but in the three occasions where the opposition got into the 40's, they also got off 92 or more field goal attempts. It's a different story for Houston. It has allowed a ridiculous 50 or more made field goals in two of its last four games. On the flip side, the Rockets have knocked down 42 or more field goals in consecutive games but haven't hit 40+ in three straight contests since doing so in five straight games from March 9th to 17th - a stretch that saw them win three games outright (they've lost seven straight games since). Noting that they're 49-30 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons, we'll back the revenge-minded Pistons here (they lost the first meeting this season by three points at home in late-January). Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
03-28-23 | Magic +8.5 v. Grizzlies | 108-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. I'm expecting a tightly-contested affair between these non-conference opponents on Tuesday as the Magic look to extend their three-game winning streak while the Grizzlies aim for their seventh consecutive victory. The Grizzlies have been red hot offensively, knocking down 45 or more field goals in six of their last seven games. On the flip side, however, they also seem to be developing some bad habits defensively, having yielded 48, 47 and 45 made field goals over their last three contests. After facing the likes of the Rockets (twice) and Hawks over their last three games, the Magic might just resemble the early-2000's Pistons to the Grizzlies here. Orlando has held three of its last four opponents to 37 or fewer made field goals. Meanwhile, the Magic offense has thrived, knocking down 40 or more field goals in each of their last 13 contests. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
03-28-23 | Cavs v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 118-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Cleveland at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Cavaliers are riding a four-game winning streak, having gone 3-1 ATS over that stretch. I think that streak comes to an end on Tuesday, however, as they face a tougher challenge in the Hawks after going against the Wizards, Nets (twice) and Rockets over their last four games. Atlanta enters this game on a tear offensively. It has knocked down at least 44 field goals in an incredible eight straight and 10 of its last 11 games overall. Of course, the Hawks defense is far from elite and they've also given up 45, 52 and 48 made field goals over their last three contests. I think they catch a bit of a break here, however, as they go up against a slow-paced Cavs squad that has topped out at 42 made field goals over their last three games and hasn't hoisted up 90 or more field goal attempts since March 6th. While Atlanta is just 3-3 over its last six games, it hasn't lost consecutive contests since March 11th and 13th (it comes off a loss against Memphis here). Also note that the Hawks have dropped the cash in consecutive games only once this entire month (7-6 ATS in March). Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
03-26-23 | Mavs -10 v. Hornets | 104-110 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Charlotte at 1:10 pm et on Sunday. A quick revenge spot for the down-trodden Mavericks here as they look to snap a three-game losing streak and avenge Friday's stunning nine-point home loss against the Hornets. Likely to have their full compliments of players at their disposal, I expect the Mavs to put forth a much sharper performance than we saw on Friday. Keep in mind, that last game against the Hornets came on the heels of consecutive gut-wrenching losses to the Grizzlies and Warriors (by a combined six points). The Mavs overlooked the lowly Hornets, plain and simple. They won't here as this road trip will only get tougher with stops in Indiana, Philadelphia, Miami and Atlanta on deck. The Hornets are without Terry Rozier while Kelly Oubre continues to battle through a shoulder injury (he is expected to play). Here, we'll note that Dallas is 19-5 ATS when playing on the road off an outright upset loss over the last three seasons. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
03-25-23 | Bucks v. Nuggets -2.5 | 106-129 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver minus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. We got the result we wanted from the Bucks last night, winning with them in Utah and also getting a lopsided final score that sets us up nicely for a play on the Nuggets on Saturday. Sweeping a back-to-back set in altitude in Salt Lake City and Denver is never easy and I don't expect that to be any different for the mighty Bucks. Milwaukee is rolling offensively right now but almost certainly in for some regression after knocking down 51 and 55 field goals in its last two games. Note that it got off 98 and 99 field goal attempts in those two contests but Denver has held four straight and eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts. The Nuggets have yielded just 39, 41, 38 and 44 made field goals in their last four contests with the high-water mark coming in a 118-104 win over the Wizards last time out. Offensively, Denver is well-positioned to go off in this game. It has made good on 42 or more field goals in each of its last seven games, finally fully healthy. The Bucks have yielded at least 93 FG attempts in an incredible 11 straight games with six of their opponents getting off at least 100. The Nuggets did drop the first meeting between these two teams this season but that came in Milwaukee, without Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, and it came by just eight points as a 10-point underdog. Take Denver (8*). | |||||||
03-24-23 | Thunder +5.5 v. Lakers | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. We'll fade the Lakers off their big home win over the Suns two nights ago. That marked Los Angeles' second straight victory but it remains just 1-2-1 ATS over its last four contests. The Lakers have had a tough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up 84, 78 and 70 field goal attempts over their last three games and now go up against a Thunder defense that can certainly hang and figures to be in a foul mood after allowing the Clippers to connect on 42-of-90 field goal attempts, without Paul George no less, in a lopsided affair last night. Of course, perhaps a letdown was to be expected from the Thunder after they notched a 101-100 victory over the same Clips two nights earlier. This will be Oklahoma City's third straight game in Los Angeles and it has looked reasonably comfortable - even in last night's loss it still made good on 41-of-93 FG attempts, the fifth time in the last six games it managed to get off at least 93 FG attempts. It remains to be seen whether Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be able to play on Friday as he recovers from an abdominal injury. We'll treat it as a bonus if he can go but will make this play assuming he'll be sidelined. The Thunder have gone a perfect 3-0 ATS in their last three games following a loss. They haven't dropped consecutive games since enduring a five-game skid from February 23rd to March 1st. Meanwhile, the Lakers are a woeful 4-15 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home win over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by just 2.0 points on average in that spot. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
03-24-23 | Bucks -8.5 v. Jazz | Top | 144-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Jazz are in tough right now with both Jordan Clarkson and Lauri Markkanen sidelined. They did manage to win without that duo on Monday against the Kings but followed it up with a double-digit loss to the Blazers on Wednesday (with Markkanen in the lineup). Utah is now in uncharted territory offensively as it has scored 115 points or more in eight straight games - its longest such streak of the season. Here, it will be tested, however, as the Bucks have held three of their last four opponents under that number. Milwaukee has limited only three of its last seven opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals but that's not all bad when you consider the shot volume it has been yielding. The Bucks have allowed at least 93 field goal attempts in each of their last nine games. Only one of Milwaukee's last six opponents has managed to shoot better than 44.4% from the field. The Jazz check in having allowed 40 or more made field goals in eight of their last nine contests. The only occasion where they didn't over that stretch came in a game where they held Miami to just 79 FG attempts but still gave up 119 points in a losing effort. The Bucks, even without Khris Middleton, should be able to get loose given Utah has yielded 93 or more FG attempts in four of its last six contests. One thing Milwaukee doesn't lack in is scoring depth so the absence of Middleton can certainly be managed. Here, we'll note that the Bucks are a long-term 53-32 ATS when playing on the road as a favorite of between 6.5 and 12.5 points, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Jazz are a miserable 1-9 ATS when coming off six or seven ATS wins in their last eight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, allowing a whopping 121.4 points per game in that spot. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
03-22-23 | Suns -1 v. Lakers | 111-122 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. I like the spot here for the struggling Suns as they check in having lost four of their last five games SU and all five ATS but all is not lost. They're still sitting in second place in the Pacific Division and fourth in the Western Conference. You would assume Phoenix would be struggling mightily at the offensive end of the floor with Kevin Durant and now DeAndre Ayton sidelined but that hasn't necessarily been the case. The Suns put up 120 points in Sunday's narrow loss to the Thunder and have knocked down more than 40 field goals in an incredible nine straight games and 40 or more in 14 consecutive contests. The issue has been their defensive play but I believe that can be rectified in fairly short order. Here, we'll note that the Suns have allowed just 107.6 points per game when coming off a loss over the last two seasons (54-game sample size) and 107.2 ppg when that loss came on the road (33-game sample size), as is the case here. The Lakers have topped out at 111 points over their last three games - that performance coming in the 'Austin Reaves game' on Sunday against the road-weary Magic. Note that Los Angeles has been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in three of its last four contests. Like the Suns, the Lakers have also had a tough time defensively in recent weeks, allowing 46, 42, 42, 47, 40 and 41 made field goals over their last six games. Note that they're a woeful 13-27 ATS when playing at home after a home win over the last three seasons. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
03-22-23 | 76ers -3.5 v. Bulls | Top | 116-91 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. These two teams were involved in a double-overtime game two nights ago in Philadelphia with the Bulls pulling out a 109-105 victory. The 76ers haven't shot remotely close to as poorly as they did in that contest since back on February 27th in a 101-99 home loss to the Heat. Note that they followed up that dismal performance with a 119-96 victory in Miami two nights later. I expect the Sixers to bounce back nicely here as well, noting that they're 22-12 on the road this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.4 points per game. The Bulls are coming off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, which means they're approaching uncharted territory as they've put together a streak longer than that only once previously, and that lasted just four games back in early January. While Chicago has been winning it has been increasingly reliant on the do of Zach LaVine and Demar Derozan to shoulder the offensive load. I'm confident we'll see the Sixers - an elite defensive team - make the necessary adjustments against that duo here. Even in Monday's overtime loss, the Sixers still held Chicago to fewer than 40 made field goals (39). That marked the fourth time in their last five games they limited the opposition to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Philadelphia has knocked down at least 40 field goals in nine of its last 11 contests. James Harden is questionable to play on Wednesday but even if he can't go, I'm confident others can pick up the slack, most notably De'Anthony Melton who has scored in double-figures in five of the last seven games. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia is 18-8 ATS when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bulls are a long-term 113-155 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS victories. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
03-21-23 | Wisconsin +5 v. Oregon | Top | 61-58 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Wisconsin plus the points over Oregon at 9 pm et on Tuesday. As high as I've been on Oregon at times this season, I think the time has come to fade the Ducks on Tuesday as they check in as considerable favorites against Wisconsin in NIT quarter-final action. First, it's certainly worth noting that Oregon is dealing with a cluster of injuries at the moment with no fewer than three key contributors questionable to return to the court for Tuesday's game. That's notable especially at this time of year when energy and depth tends to be depleted. The Ducks absences didn't cost them against the likes of Cal-Irvine and UCF but likely will here. Note that Oregon was fortunate that UCF had an off shooting night on Sunday as it made good on just 19-of-62 field goal attempts. The Ducks are playing with fire right now at the defensive end of the floor, having yielded 60, 80 and 62 FG attempts over their last three contests. Wisconsin figures to take advantage, noting that it is playing some of its best offensive basketball of the season now that it's out of the Big Ten. In fact, going back to February 22nd, the Badgers have made good on 25, 30, 23, 27, 21, 25 and 27 field goals and that's despite getting off 58 or fewer FG attempts in five of those seven contests. Defensively, it's been a bit more challenging but the good news is, the Badgers have limited their opponents' scoring opportunities for the most part, allowing 55 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last five games. I do think they can effectively shorten this game with their methodical tempo, which is what you generally want to see from an underdog in this pointspread range. Only 15 teams have faced a tougher schedule than Wisconsin this season (according to KenPom), noting that the Badgers faced the likes of Dayton, Kansas, USC and Marquette in non-conference action this season, going 3-1 in those four games in particular with the lone loss coming by a single point against Kansas. Oregon, on the other hand, stepped up in class and lost by 10 points against Houston, 24 at the hands of Connecticut and four against Michigan State. Take Wisconsin (10*). | |||||||
03-20-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Knicks | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Monday. These two teams certainly appear to be headed in opposite directions right now with Minnesota off three straight losses and New York checking in following three consecutive wins. The T'Wolves not surprisingly weren't competitive on Saturday in Toronto, playing on the second of back-to-back nights after a double-overtime loss in Chicago the night previous. That loss to the Bulls was multi-faceted as Minnesota also lost Anthony Edwards to what appeared to be a serious ankle injury. It turns out that injury may not be as severe as first thought as he was out of the walking boot on Sunday. While he's unlikely to play on Monday, I still think the T'Wolves can hang. Minnesota has undoubtedly had this rematch circled since dropping a 120-107 decision at home against the Knicks back in November. Note that the T'Wolves are 30-18 ATS when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 2.0 points in that spot. They're also 15-5 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss over the same stretch, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 2.2 points on average in that situation. While the Knicks are 12-3 ATS over their last 15 games, they've won by more than eight points only six times over that stretch. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic -15 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Florida Atlantic minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. I have no problem with laying the lofty number of points with Florida Atlantic here, even after Fairleigh Dickinson shocked number-one seed Purdue in its tournament opener on Friday. FDU still checks in ranked 274th in the country according to KenPom - most glaring is the fact that the Knights are 353rd (out of 364 teams) in adjusted offensive efficiency, despite having faced the 362 most difficult schedule in terms of opponents' offensive efficiency. It's obviously extremely rare for a 16-seed to prevail over a one-seed, even moreso when it shoots worse than 39% from the field as FDU did against Purdue. That upset had everything to do with the Big Ten champs looking right past the Knights, and paying the price for it. I don't expect Florida Atlantic to take anything for granted here - after all, it is coming off an 'upset' win of its own over highly-touted Memphis in the opening round. While the Owls didn't necessarily have their shooting legs under them, they still afforded themselves plenty of scoring opportunities - 65 field goal attempts to be exact. They've knocked down at least 25 field goals in an incredible 12 of their last 13 games overall. The Owls are certainly no strangers to blowout victories, with five wins by 20+ points to their credit over their last eight games alone. Take Florida Atlantic (10*). | |||||||
03-19-23 | Michigan State +3 v. Marquette | 69-60 | Win | 100 | 8 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan State plus the points over Marquette at 5:15 pm et on Sunday. Marquette put on a shooting clinic in its double-digit win and cover against Vermont in the opening round. That marked its third straight ATS victory. Note that the Golden Eagles have reeled off four or more consecutive ATS wins on two previous occasions this season but to keep those streaks intact beyond three in a row they faced a pair of disappointing teams in Georgetown and Villanova. This time around they'll be up against Michigan State, which is essentially playing with 'house money', dancing on to the second round as a double-digit loss team but having faced the sixth most difficult schedule in the country this season (according to KenPom). In stark contrast, Marquette has faced the 42nd toughest slate of opponents this season, including 196th in non-conference play. Firmly planted in uncharted territory having won a season-high 10 consecutive games (its previous longest win streak was five), we'll fade the Golden Eagles here. Take Michigan State (8*). | |||||||
03-18-23 | Auburn v. Houston -5 | 64-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Auburn at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. Regardless whether Houston star guard Marcus Sasser is able to play or how much he can contribute, I like the way this matchup sets up for the Cougars. Auburn exploded for 51 points in the second half in its opening round victory over Iowa. Keep in mind, that was just the Tigers fifth win since January 25th. They haven't posted consecutive victories since a five-game winning streak fro January 7th to 21st. I don't like the Auburn defense here, noting that it has allowed 32, 29, 25, 28 and 28 made field goals over its last five contests. The Cougars play at one of the slowest tempos in the entire country but I look for the Tigers to do all they can to speed them up here and I think that actually may end up working against them. Houston certainly didn't show it in its tournament opener but it can hang a crooked number on the scoreboard when necessary. Note that the Cougars have knocked down at least 25 field goals in six of their last eight games. They've been held under 70 points in five straight games but that's by far their longest such streak of the season (prior to it they had been held under 70 in only six of 30 contests). With or without Sasser, I look for the Cougars to outpace the Tigers here. Take Houston (8*). | |||||||
03-18-23 | Duke v. Tennessee +4 | 52-65 | Win | 100 | 6 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tennessee plus the points over Duke at 2:40 pm et on Saturday. Duke has reeled off five straight ATS victories including a blowout win over Oral Roberts in the opening round of this tournament on Thursday. Long pointspread win streaks aren't commonplace for teams as high-profile as the Blue Devils and I can't help but feel it's leaving them overvalued as a considerable favorite against Tennessee on Saturday. Note that prior to its current streak, the Blue Devils season-long ATS run had lasted only two games and that happened just once - way back in the first two games of the regular season. Here, I anticipate Duke getting stymied by a tremendous Tennessee defense that checks in ranked second in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season (according to KenPom). The Vols actually sit 10 spots ahead of the Blue Devils in KenPom's overall rankings. While Duke has impressed, it is just one game removed from a sub-20 field goal performance against Virginia (in the ACC Championship Game). In stark contrast, the Vols have knocked down more than 20 field goals in 11 straight games - that despite playing at only the 276th fastest tempo in the country (again according to KenPom). In what projects as a low-scoring game, we'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Vols. Take Tennessee (8*). | |||||||
03-18-23 | Michigan v. Vanderbilt -1 | 65-66 | Push | 0 | 3 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Vanderbilt minus the points over Michigan at 12 noon et on Saturday. We won with Michigan in its NIT opener against Toledo but it faces a much more difficult challenge as it heads on the road to take on Vanderbilt on Saturday. The Commodores are a red hot 10-2 SU and ATS over their last 12 games and unlike the Wolverines, I think Vandy is content to be in the NIT, rather than feeling snubbed by the NCAA Tournament committee. Michigan has struggled away from home all season, going 5-11 while being outscored by an average margin of 1.2 points on average. Meanwhile, Vandy is 13-5 in Nashville, outscoring the opposition by 4.8 points on average. With the Wolverines giving up far too many scoring opportunities (they've allowed more than 60 field goal attempts in five straight games) I look for the Commodores to roll here. Take Vanderbilt (8*). | |||||||
03-17-23 | Arizona State +6 v. TCU | 70-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Arizona State plus the points over TCU at 10:05 pm et on Friday. Bettors will undoubtedly be down on Pac-12 teams after watching Arizona's stunning loss to Princeton yesterday (the Wildcats won the Pac-12 Tournament less than a week ago). With that being said, I'll grab all the points I can get with underdog Arizona State here. TCU peaked sometime around mid-January, perhaps more specifically on January 21st when it won by 23 points on the road against Kansas. At that time, the Horned Frogs had just four losses but they've gone on to suffer eight more since. Since a four-game slide in late January, Arizona State has gone 8-5 over its last 13 games, including upset wins over Stanford, Arizona and USC. While the Sun Devils are coming off an incredible 98-point performance against Nevada in their 'First Four' matchup on Wednesday, I've been more impressed by their defense. They've held five straight opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts entering Friday's contest. The Horned Frogs have knocked down more than 20 field goals in five straight games but they've done so on the strength of 59 or more FG attempts in four of those five contests. Defensively, you would have to go back 14 games, all the way to January 24th, to find the last time TCU limited an opponent to fewer than 24 made field goals. I expect this game to go down to the wire at the very least. Take Arizona State (8*). | |||||||
03-17-23 | VCU v. St. Mary's -4 | Top | 51-63 | Win | 100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Mary's minus the points over VCU at 2 pm et on Friday. I think VCU carries a certain reputation when it comes to postseason basketball, due in large part to past success. I don't think this is a good matchup at all for the Rams as they take on a St. Mary's Gaels squad that many consider an afterthought after getting brushed aside by Gonzaga twice in its last three games. Entering the tournament, the Gaels rank 12th overall according to KenPom, displaying tremendous efficiency at both ends of the floor. It's a case of 'anything you can do, I can do better' by my estimation. While VCU ranks an impressive 16th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, St. Mary's checks in ninth. The Rams sit just 138th in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency - a far cry from the Gaels 39th ranking. Did St. Mary's do it against a weaker schedule? Not even close as the Gaels have faced the 74th toughest slate of opponents this season (also according to KenPom) and the 56th most difficult non-conference schedule. VCU checks in 134th and 215th in those two categories, respectively. Note that St. Mary's has reeled off six consecutive ATS wins when coming off an in-conference loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. In fact, the Gaels are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 contests following a straight-up loss. While St. Mary's has gone a profitable 18-13 ATS in lined contests this season, you have to wonder if that record might be a shade better were it not for its opponents shooting an above-average 75.2% from the free throw line. Note that VCU has knocked down just 69.7% of its attempts from the charity stripe this season. Take St. Mary's (10*). | |||||||
03-16-23 | Utah State -1.5 v. Missouri | 65-76 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah State minus the points over Missouri at 1:40 pm et on Thursday. I love the matchup for Utah State here as it draws what I consider to be an overrated SEC squad in Missouri that has certainly exceeded expectations this season but isn't well-suited to go on a deep tournament run in my opinion. Many watched the Tigers upset Tennessee last Friday but their SEC Tournament success was short-lived as they were outmatched by Alabama the next day. While Missouri has managed to get hot for stretches offensively, it has also been limited to 23 or fewer made field goals in four of its last eight games. My concern with Missouri lies at the defensive end of the floor where it ranks 179th in the nation in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency (according to KenPom) and will have to deal with an experienced, multi-pronged Utah State offense that checks in 13th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency despite quietly having faced the 58th most difficult schedule. The Aggies fell just short in the Mountain West Championship Game against a terrific San Diego State squad but I'm confident they'll get right back up for this NCAA Tournament opening round matchup. With 7'1" Trevin Dorius in the middle not to mention the imposing duo of Taylor Funk and Sean Bairstow and the glue-guy that holds it all together in hometown boy Steven Ashworth, I believe this Aggies squad has the potential to make some noise this weekend, starting with Thursday's game. Take Utah State (8*). | |||||||
03-15-23 | Warriors v. Clippers -2 | Top | 126-134 | Win | 100 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. For a team that manages its schedule ultra-conservatively from a personnel standpoint, the situation doesn't get much better for the Clippers. They've been off for the last three days and after tonight's contest will get two more days off before playing at home again on Friday against Orlando. And the good news is, the Clips enter this contest playing some of their best basketball of the season. They've won three straight games to pull even with the Warriors in the Western Conference standings. Their offense is rolling, having knocked down 47, 45, 39 and 42 field goals over their last four games with the lone outlier coming in a 108-100 victory over Toronto in which they hoisted up only 71 field goal attempts. Defensively, Los Angeles is locked-in, most recently holding the Raptors and Knicks to just 37 and 32 made field goals, respectively. It's a different story at that end of the floor for the Warriors as they've employed a 'swinging-gate' style of defense, allowing 42, 50, 50, 43 and 46 made field goals over their last five contests, albeit aided by overtime in one of those games (against the Bucks). Offensively, they've been fine, as expected, but most of their damage has been done at home. The Warriors remain a woeful 7-26 on the road, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 7.2 points. Interestingly, you would have to go back to 2019 to find the last time the Warriors covered the spread in consecutive meetings with the Clippers when one of those matchups took place in Los Angeles, as is the case here. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
03-14-23 | Toledo v. Michigan -6 | 80-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Michigan minus the points over Toledo at 7 pm et on Tuesday. Bettors seem eager to fade Michigan in its NIT opener, probably feeling that it will be disinterested after getting 'snubbed' by the NCAA Tournament committee. This Wolverines team wasn't likely to go deep in the NCAA Tournament anyway, and I think the players know that. A high ranking in the NIT does give the Wolverines and opportunity to keep playing and building for next season (keep in mind Michigan returned only one starter this season). I like the draw here in the opening matchup. Toledo doesn't play a lick of defense. The Rockets rank a woeful 287th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite having faced the 213th most difficult schedule in terms of opponents' adjusted offensive efficiency (both according to KenPom). Yes, Toledo can score, or it could against MAC foes anyway. The Rockets only faced the 199th toughest slate of non-conference opponents (and didn't go against a single opponent from the Power-5 conferences) so it's difficult to gauge how they'll fare in this step-up spot. On the heels of three straight losses, I think we see Michigan's best effort here as I'm willing to bet on head coach Juwan Howard's ability to get his players up for this NIT opener. Note that while Toledo has only lost seven games this season, each of those seven defeats came by at least seven points and five of them came by double-digit margins. Take Michigan (8*). | |||||||
03-12-23 | Knicks +2.5 v. Lakers | 112-108 | Win | 100 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Los Angeles at 9:10 pm et on Sunday. The Knicks may be missing Jalen Brunson but there's still no reason for their offense to go in the tank the way it has over the last few games. Off a dreadful performance on this same court against the Clippers yesterday, I look for them to rebound on Sunday night against the Lakers. Los Angeles is coming off a win over Toronto on Friday night. That had more to do with the Raptors inability to lay the hammer down than anything else. Toronto had a number of opportunities to take full control of that contest but simply failed to do so. Off three straight losses, I expect the Knicks to play inspired basketball as they look to at least give themselves a shot at splitting this four-game road trip. Note that New York is 20-14 on the road this season, where it has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.3 points. It also checks in an impressive 24-10 ATS when playing the second night of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscoring foes by 5.1 points on average in that spot. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
03-12-23 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -4 | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Alabama minus the points over Texas A&M at 1 pm et on Sunday. It's payback time as the Crimson Tide look to avenge last week's 67-61 loss at Texas A&M with much higher stakes in Sunday's SEC Championship Game. I'm not convinced the Aggies can afford themselves enough scoring opportunities to keep within arm's reach in this one. Note that in last week's victory over the Tide, the Aggies actually knocked down only 18 field goals. The difference was their 28 trips to the free throw line (they made 27 of those attempts). Alabama had an off shooting day, including a woeful 7-of-36 from beyond the arc. Don't count on lightning striking twice here. While the Tide are known for their offensive prowess, their defense has been even better. In fact, Alabama checks in ranked third in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. That's not to mention the fact that they play at the country's fourth fastest tempo (also according to KenPom). Look for 'Bama to overwhelm Texas A&M in all facets on Sunday. Take Alabama (8*). | |||||||
03-11-23 | Grand Canyon v. Southern Utah +1 | Top | 84-66 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
WAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Southern Utah over Grand Canyon at 11:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams pulled off minor upsets in the semi-final round of the WAC Tournament yesterday. I'll back the revenge-minded Thunderbirds of Southern Utah on Saturday as they look to get back at the Antelopes after dropping an 83-78 decision in the two teams' last matchup just over a week ago. This game features a true contrast in styles as Southern Utah looks to push the pace at every opportunity, ranked 16th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season according to KenPom. By the same metric, Grand Canyon sits 291st. While that's not necessarily a bad thing for the Antelopes, they haven't really been able to impose their will on any of their opponents this month, save for perhaps lowly Utah Tech in a double-digit win on March 3rd. Since that defeat at the hands of Grand Canyon, we've seen Southern Utah knock down 29, 27 and 30 field goals in notching three straight victories. Interestingly, it's not the Thunderbirds that have been more vulnerable defensively, despite playing at such a fast pace. The Antelopes actually rank a disappointing 210th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season. Southern Utah checks in 149th despite facing a marginally tougher schedule. I simply feel that last week's result between these two teams is weighing far too heavily given how little most have paid attention to the WAC in general this season. Take Southern Utah (10*). | |||||||
03-11-23 | Texas v. Kansas -1 | 76-56 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Texas at 6 pm et on Saturday. There's very little separating these two Big 12 rivals and it's fitting that they'll meet in Saturday's Conference Championship Game. In fact, there's less than a point between the two teams according to KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin metric with only one spot separating them in the overall rankings. I simply feel that the Jayhawks are the superior defensive team and the fact is they've faced the toughest schedule in the entire country this season (also according to KenPom). We actually won with Texas in this same matchup last Saturday as the Longhorns exacted their revenge for an earlier loss to Kansas this season. That game was played in Austin. This one takes place in Kansas City. I expect the Jayhawks to roll. Take Kansas (8*). | |||||||
03-10-23 | Raptors +1 v. Lakers | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 23 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Toronto plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. This is a big spot for the Raptors who were fuming (feeling wronged by the officials) following Wednesday's loss on this same court against the Clippers. Toronto hasn't played all that poorly but is just 1-3 on its current road trip. We were actually on the Raptors in their lone victory - an overtime win in Washington last Saturday. I like the fact that Toronto has gotten back to its preferred style of basketball at the very least, holding six straight and nine of its last 10 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. The Raptors last contest marked the first time in four games that they didn't make good on at least 41 field goals. The Lakers are undoubtedly playing well but have also caught some favorable matchups lately, facing the Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, a reeling Warriors squad and a Grizzlies team missing Ja Morant among others. Here, they get the Raps at virtually full strength. Note that Los Angeles is just 13-26 ATS when coming off two or more consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 0.8 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Raptors are a long-term 163-126 ATS when playing on the road off two or more losses in a row. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
03-10-23 | Oregon +6.5 v. UCLA | 56-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon plus the points over UCLA at 9 pm et on Friday. UCLA faced some resistance but ultimately got past Colorado by double-digits in a win and ATS cover yesterday. I can't help but feel that Oregon is essentially Colorado 'on steroids' this season and the Ducks will certainly enter this contest with a chip on their collective shoulder after dropping both regular season meetings with the Bruins. Oregon wasn't able to generate enough scoring opportunities to get over the hump in the two regular season matchups with UCLA. It is worth noting that Bruins guard Jaylen Clark proved to be a handful for the Ducks in those two contests, scoring 27 points while adding seven rebounds not to mention getting to the free throw line 14 times. He of course won't play in this game as he recovers from an achilles injury. I think a lot of bettors are sleeping on the Ducks, noting that they check in ranked 28th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and 70th in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 23rd most difficult schedule (all according to KenPom). Oregon was certainly battle-tested early on as it went up against the 28th toughest slate of non-conference opponents (by comparison UCLA faced only the 148th most difficult). Of course UCLA is the superior team in this matchup but that's been baked into the pointspread. As we see year in, year out, the best team doesn't always end up on top in these conference tournaments and the Pac-12 has been no different (remember Oregon State?). Having won four games in a row, allowing just 22, 19, 25 and 23 made field goals over that stretch, I'm confident the Ducks can hang with the Bruins for 40 minutes on Friday. Take Oregon (8*). | |||||||
03-10-23 | Blazers v. 76ers -8.5 | 119-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. While they have managed to scrap their way to two wins in their last three games, the Blazers are not playing inspiring basketball right now. They've had a tough enough time just getting shots off, hoisting up 83 or fewer field goal attempts in five of their last seven games. They've been limited to fewer than 40 made field goals in five of their last six contests. That's a recipe for disaster for a team that has allowed an incredible 28 straight opponents to knock down at least 40 field goals with 18 of those making good on 43 or more. The 76ers enter this game playing some of their best offensive basketball of the season after making good on 40 or more field goals in five straight games. They've also held 11 of their last 14 opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. Last time out, in what should have been a bad spot playing the second night of back-to-backs off a wild, high-scoring affair against the Pacers, they held the Timberwolves to 34-of-86 shooting in a 23-point rout, on the road as three-point underdogs no less. We'll note that Portland is just 13-24 ATS when seeking revenge for a home loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, as is the case here after the Sixers won by 10 in Portland back in January, outscored by an average margin of 9.6 points in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
03-08-23 | Oregon State +10 v. Arizona State | Top | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
Pac-12 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Arizona State at 11:30 pm et on Wednesday. We missed with Oregon State on Saturday as the Beavers won but failed to cover the spread against lowly California. While that was a rather uninspiring performance from OSU I do think it's well positioned to get back in the win column from an ATS perspective as it catches a generous helping of points against Arizona State in the first round Pac-12 Tournament action. Note that this will be the third matchup between these two teams this season. The Sun Devils took the first two but neither game was a blowout as they won by five and 11 points. Arizona State actually got off only 49 and 47 field goal attempts in those two contests, making good on a combined 46 of them. The difference was that ASU set up shop at the free throw line, getting there 27 and 26 times. I certainly don't expect a repeat of that here, noting that the Sun Devils average only 18 trips to the charity stripe per game this season. We know Oregon State is capable of slowing this game to a crawl, effectively shortening proceedings which is what we want to see from an underdog in this pointspread range. Note that the Beavers have held seven straight opponents to 58 or fewer FG attempts, allowing more than 25 made field goals just twice over that stretch. While Arizona State does rate well defensively, I do think Oregon State can find some success offensively, noting that the Sun Devils have allowed an incredible 21 straight opponents to knock down at least 20 field goals (that's not a lofty number by any means but can work as a reasonable floor for the Beavers here). In stark contrast, Oregon State has held three of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 20 made field goals. Take Oregon State (10*). | |||||||
03-08-23 | Cavs -2.5 v. Heat | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavs nearly got caught overlooking the undermanned Celtics who were in a back-to-back spot and resting a number of players on Monday in Cleveland. While the Cavs did ultimately win that game in overtime, they didn't cover the spread. That brought an end to their three-game ATS winning streak but I look for them to start a new one on Wednesday in Miami. The Heat wrapped up a two-game sweep of the Hawks at home two nights ago. We actually cashed with Atlanta in that game but were fortunate to do so thanks to a 'meaningless' buzzer-beater from the Hawks. Atlanta had that game in control before coughing it up in the fourth quarter, due in large part to its defensive ineptitude. The Cavs should offer a 'shock to the system' to the Heat in that regard, noting that they've held four straight and 10 of their last 12 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals in regulation time. Miami isn't playing at a pace that would appear to challenge that Cavs run, noting that the Heat have hoisted up 83 or fewer FG attempts in six straight games, making good on 42 or less in 12 consecutive contests. Contrast that with Cleveland, which enters on a streak of eight straight and 15 of its last 16 having knocked down 40 or more field goals. The last time these two teams met in late January the Heat prevailed as a four-point road underdog. Look for the revenge-minded Cavs to answer back here. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
03-07-23 | Georgia Tech -1.5 v. Florida State | 61-60 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Georgia Tech minus the points over Florida State at 2 pm et on Tuesday. While few have been paying much attention, Georgia Tech enters the ACC Tournament playing its best basketball of the season, having won eight straight games ATS. It hasn't been by smoke and mirrors either. The Yellow Jackets have climbed to 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency while facing the 82nd most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). While their overall offensive numbers still lag, we've certainly seen a positive turnaround down the stretch. Georgia Tech has knocked down 26 or more field goals in nine straight games entering Tuesday's contest. In stark contrast, Florida State has reached that number just twice in its last six games. Also note that the Seminoles rank a miserable 244th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency and have allowed at least 27 made field goals in seven of their last nine contests overall. The Noles got the better of the Yellow Jackets in the two teams' lone regular season matchup but I expect a different result on Tuesday. Take Georgia Tech (8*). | |||||||
03-06-23 | Hawks +3.5 v. Heat | 128-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We'll fade the Heat after they delivered a 117-109 win in the front half of this two-game set against the Hawks. We haven't seen Miami post consecutive ATS victories since January 6th and 8th, going an ugly 7-16-1 ATS since. The Heat have done a nice job of limiting their opponents' scoring opportunities lately but I expect the Hawks to get loose here, noting that they had knocked down at least 40 field goals in eight straight and 14 of their last 15 games prior to Saturday's defeat. While Atlanta is just 14-19 on the road this season, it has been a 'tough out', outscored by an average margin of only 1.9 points per contest. Meanwhile, the Heat are 20-12 on their home floor but have only managed to outscore the opposition by 0.8 points per game on average. Take Atlanta (8*). | |||||||
03-05-23 | Knicks v. Celtics -5.5 | 131-129 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. We'll back the Celtics to rebound off their embarrassing loss at home against the Nets on Friday - in a game they led by 28 points at one point. Meanwhile, the Celtics are coming off a last-second victory over the Heat in Miami on Friday. Here, we find the C's in a quick revenge spot after getting drilled 109-94 in New York on February 27th. In fact, it's a double-revenge spot as the Knicks also won 120-117 here in Boston back on January 26th. We'll note that the Celtics are a long-term 18-6 ATS when coming off an outright loss to a division opponent as six points or more, as is the case here. They're also 89-61 ATS when coming off a double-digit home loss. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
03-04-23 | California v. Oregon State -6.5 | 66-69 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon State minus the points over California at 8 pm et on Saturday. After a no-show against Stanford on Thursday I look for Oregon State to bounce back and lay waste to a reeling California squad in its regular season finale in Corvallis on Saturday. Cal is coming off another ugly loss, this time at the hands of Oregon, by a score of 84-51 on Thursday. The Beavers weren't much better, dropping an 83-60 decision against the Cardinal. This is an ideal 'get right' spot for Oregon State in its home finale as it looks to snap a four-game losing streak, noting that it has already defeated Cal by 20 points once this season, on the road no less. Take Oregon State (8*). | |||||||
03-04-23 | Raptors -1 v. Wizards | Top | 116-109 | Win | 100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Washington at 5:10 pm et on Saturday. The Raptors haven't lost consecutive games since January 30th and February 1st and I look for them to avoid that fate in the second half of this two-game set against the Wizards on Saturday. Note that Washington is just 11-22 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons. The Wizards are also a long-term 183-233 ATS when coming off consecutive victories, which is also the situation here. The Raptors had their opportunities on Thursday night but simply couldn't take advantage, connecting on only 41-of-92 field goal attempts. They did hold Washington to just 84 field goal attempts - the third straight game in which they limited the opposition to that number or less. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
03-04-23 | Kansas v. Texas -2 | Top | 59-75 | Win | 100 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Texas minus the points over Kansas at 4 pm et on Saturday. Kansas is red hot having won seven straight games. It hasn't looked particularly impressive in its last two victories, however, failing to cover the spread on both occasions. Here, I expect the Jayhawks to have their win streak stopped by a Texas team determined to end its two-game skid to close out the regular season at home. This is a revenge spot for the Longhorns as well after they dropped a spirited 88-80 affair in Lawrence back on February 6th. Note that Texas has lost just once at home this season, that coming in a wild 116-103 setback against Kansas State in January. The Longhorns current two-game slide is their longest such streak of the season. I don't like the fact that Kansas has given up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games entering this contest, opening the door for a Texas offense that has knocked down 25 or more field goals in four straight games and figures to bounce back after making good on only 25-of-64 FG attempts in a narrow two-point loss at TCU last time out. Take Texas (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |