Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Golden State at 9 pm et on Friday. The Mavericks not surprisingly struggled to get back up for Game 1 of this series after overcoming the top-seeded Suns in a come-from-behind victory last round. We won with the Warriors two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Mavs here. Dallas actually did an alright job of slowing the Warriors offense in Game 1, holding it to just 82 field goal attempts. The Warriors quite simply shot the lights out. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here, however, noting that Golden State similarly shot 64% in a 142-112 Game 3 rout of Memphis last round before knocking down just 40% of its shots while eking out a 101-98 victory in Game 4. We know the Mavs are capable of better defensively, noting that they've held 10 of their last 14 opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals, going 9-5 ATS while suffering consecutive ATS losses only once over that stretch. Here, we'll also point out that Dallas is 9-1 ATS when coming off a loss by 20+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.2 points in that situation. Golden State has now held consecutive opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals - the first time it has accomplished that feat all playoffs. It has also posted back-to-back ATS victories for the first time since starting its opening round series against Denver with three in a row. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors -4.5 | 87-112 | Win | 100 | 32 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Dallas at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Credit the Mavericks for rallying back from a 3-2 series deficit to oust the Suns in seven games, delivering an incredible knockout punch on the road in Game 7 on Sunday. There's no question, Dallas has been at its best when facing adversity in these playoffs (Game 2 without Luka Doncic in round one against Utah and Game 3 after digging an 0-2 hole last round against Phoenix come to mind). Here, I'm not convinced we'll see the Mavs best punch as both teams feel their way around Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. Golden State has the benefit of playing at home, where it has gone 37-10 this season, outscoring opponents by 10.5 points per game, and also checks in well-rested but not likely rusty following just four off days. I like the fact that the Warriors come in seeking revenge for consecutive losses against the Mavs, noting that they've gone 24-12 ATS when playing with 'double-revenge' over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average along the way. For their part, the Mavs check in just 4-6 ATS when coming off an outright underdog road victory this season, as is the case here, and 1-3 ATS when following up consecutive wins by 15+ points. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics v. Heat -1.5 | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami minus the points over Boston at 8:45 pm et on Tuesday. I think there was a somewhat common line of thinking that whichever team prevailed in the Bucks vs. Celtics series would likely go on to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals. I don't feel the Heat are deserving of that disrespect - after all, we're talking about the number-one seed in the East and a team that has for the most part cruised through the first two rounds of the playoffs. Here, we're able to back Miami at a very short price despite the fact that it is home and rested while the Celtics are just one day removed from Game 7 of a grueling series against the defending champion Bucks. Note that while the Heat have shown they can prevail in any type of environment, winning high-scoring and low-scoring affairs, the Celtics are actually 0-2 SU and ATS when being held to 101 points or less in these playoffs. Miami has given up fewer than 100 points in seven of 11 games in these playoffs. While I'm not saying this one will turn into a slugfest, I do like the Heat's depth and flexibility regardless the type of contest that plays out on Tuesday. Note that Miami had at least five players score in double-figures in consecutive victories to close out the Sixers last round - a much different story than the Celtics last opponent, the Bucks, who obviously relied heavily on Giannis to do it all. Take Miami (9*). | |||||||
05-15-22 | Mavs v. Suns -6 | 123-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Dallas at 8 pm et on Sunday. We've seen these two teams trade blowouts over the last two games and I won't be surprised if we see more of the same in Game 7 on Sunday as the Suns return home looking to close out the Mavs. Dallas has reached a high-water mark of 40 made field goals in this series, failing to reach that number in any of the last three contests. In fact, the Suns have held the Mavs to fewer than 80 field goal attempts in three of the six games in this series. Meanwhile, Phoenix is coming off its ugliest shooting performance of the series in Game 6. We expected a response from the Mavs in that game and saw exactly that as they locked down the Suns potent offense. I expect a different story to unfold here, however, noting that the Suns are a terrific 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.9 points on average in that situation. They're also 24-11 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite in their previous game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.0 points in that spot. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
05-15-22 | Bucks +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 81-109 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 2 m | Show |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Boston at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. We won with the Celtics (free play) in Game 6 of this series on Friday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and grab the points with the Bucks as the series shifts back to Beantown for a seventh-and-deciding game on Sunday afternoon. I really like the job the Bucks have done defensively in this series, even if it hasn't always translated to victories. They've held the Celtics to 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all six games so far. Were it not for they themselves being unable knock down their shots on Friday night, we would probably already be talking about the Bucks moving on to their next opponent. Save for a blowout defeat in Game 2 in Boston, Milwaukee has been able to get loose offensively, getting off 90+ FG attempts in four of six games in this series. And we've already seen the Bucks respond favorably in games they've 'needed' in this series, taking the series-opener by double-digits, grabbing the 2-1 series lead in Game 3 at home and then rallying to steal a pivotal Game 6 back in Boston. Expect the battle-tested Bucks to step up again here, noting that the Celtics are a woeful 6-18 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit win over the last two seasons. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
05-13-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -8 | Top | 96-110 | Win | 100 | 33 h 48 m | Show |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Grizzlies the last time these two teams met on this floor in Game 4 earlier in the week. We followed that up with an easy winner with the 'over' in Game 5 on Wednesday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Warriors - who we successfully backed in Game 3 last Saturday - as they look to close out this series back in San Francisco. Credit the Grizzlies for showing up and showing out in what will likely prove to be their home finale two nights ago, without Ja Morant no less. They're still without Ja and much like we saw in Game 4, I believe they'll have a tough time mounting enough offense to keep pace with the Warriors. Golden State checks in 8-1 ATS this season when playing at home seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an incredible 19.6 points on average in that spot. The Warriors are also a long-term 23-7 ATS when playing at home after allowing 130 or more points in their previous game, as is the case here. For their part, the Grizzlies - despite the outright upset win on Wednesday - are a woeful 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games when facing elmination in a playoff series. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers -2 | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Heat in Game 5 of this series two nights ago - a never-in-doubt 35-point laugher. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way, however, and back the 76ers as they look to force a seventh game in this series. The home side has won and covered in all five games in this series. Here, we'll look for the Sixers to extend that streak noting that they've gone 40-24 ATS when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points in that situation. Better still, they're 22-11 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 8.4 points on average in that spot. Off a 120-point explosion in Game 5, I don't see a lot of upside for the Heat offense here. Note that the Sixers have held them to 84 or fewer field goal attempts in each of the last four games, no small feat after Miami had gotten off 92+ FG attempts in three of its previous four contests prior to that stretch. The Heat quite simply shot the lights out on Tuesday. Philadelphia on the other hand, had an awful shooting night in Miami last time out but on a positive note did manage to get off a series-high 85 FG attempts. Note that the Sixers managed to score 99 and 116 points in winning both previous home games in this series despite attempting just 67 and 68 field goals. If they can find a way to get that pace up a bit again here, I'm confident they can hang a crooked number on the Heat. Take Philadelphia (9*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | Mavs v. Suns -5.5 | Top | 80-110 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA First Half Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points first half over Dallas at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks did an excellent job of getting back in this series, securing consecutive wins on their home floor to tie things up at two heading back to Phoenix. Now it's the Suns turn to respond and I expect them to get off to a strong start in Game 5 on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 3-11 ATS in the first half when playing on the road off consecutive wins this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. The Suns meanwhile have gone 10-1 ATS in the first half when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 10.7 points on average in that spot. It's not that Phoenix shot all that poorly in the last two games in Dallas, but it's outside shooting certainly let it down in Sunday's Game 4 as it made good on just nine three-point attempts. I'm convinced we'll see the Suns get off to at least a better start in this one (we won't worry about the Mavs potentially making the appropriate halftime adjustments by sticking with the first half only), noting that they were in a similar situation returning home tied at two games apiece against New Orleans last round and ended up jumping ahead 59-46 at halftime in Game 5. Take Phoenix first half (10*). | |||||||
05-10-22 | 76ers v. Heat -3 | Top | 85-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. After getting crushed by 20 points in Game 3 in Philadelphia, the Heat played much better in Game 4 but simply couldn't withstand a shooting clinic from the 76ers as they knocked down over 54% of their field goal attempts in an eight-point victory. With the scene shifting back to Miami for Game 5 on Tuesday, I look for the Heat to regain their footing. Note that the Sixers actually got off just 67 and 68 field goal attempts in the two games in Philadelphia. They've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in all 10 playoff games to date. With so few opportunities and considering the Heat have held opponents to just 37-of-83 shooting here at home this season, I believe the Sixers will be in tough trying to keep within arm's reach in this one. Note that the Heat, while slowed in Philadelphia, have shown they can push the pace, getting off 92+ FG attempts in three of their last seven contests. While the Sixers have knocked down 40+ field goals just once in their last nine games the Heat have accomplished that feat four times in their last seven and 10 of their last 13 contests overall. On the flip side you would have to go back seven games to find the last time Miami allowed an opponent to make good on more than 38 field goals. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are 14-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss where their opponent scored 110+ points this season, outscoring the opposition by 6.8 points on average. Perhaps better still, Miami has outscored opponents by 11.1 points on average when seeking revenge for consecutive losses against an opponent this season (12-game sample size). Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-09-22 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. Everyone has all but written off the Grizzlies following Saturday's 144-114 drubbing - a game in which they also lost Ja Morant to an injury (he's doubtful to play on Monday). While I have no false illusions when it comes to the Grizz potentially winning this series, I do believe they can bounce back with a much stronger performance on Monday and ultimately take this one down to the wire. Even if Morant can't go, Memphis will have Dillon Brooks back on the floor following his one-game suspension. It's worth noting that the Grizzlies know how to play without Ja as he has missed plenty of time due to injury over the last couple of seasons. I like the fact that Memphis continues to find its opportunities in this series, getting off 95, 91 and 92 field goal attempts in the first three games. Golden State quite simply shot the lights out on Saturday, knocking down a ridiculous 63.1% of its field goal attempts. It happens when we're talking about a team led by the likes of Steph Curry and Klay Thompson. Memphis has proven to be a terrific 'bounce-back' team all season though, going a perfect 10-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 15.9 points on average in that situation. When seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, the Grizzlies have gone 21-10 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 4.8 points. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
05-08-22 | Suns -1.5 v. Mavs | 101-111 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix over Dallas at 3:30 pm et on Sunday. The Mavericks showed up defensively in Game 3 of this series and delivered a much-needed 103-94 win. Phoenix only managed to get off 76 field goal attempts in that contest yet was still reasonably competitive. Compare that with Dallas, which got off 90 FG attempts but still only made good on 40 of those, noting the Mavs have now been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in six straight games. In stark contrast, prior to Friday's game the Suns had made good on 42+ field goals in 12 consecutive games. Here, I look for the Suns to make the necessary adjustments and take a strange-hold on this series, noting that they're an incredible 16-3 when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 11.4 points on average in that situation. Take Phoenix (7*). | |||||||
05-07-22 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -6.5 | 112-142 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Memphis at 8:30 pm et on Saturday. The Grizzlies have taken the cash in each of the first two games in this series and we won with them in Game 2. I think they'll be hard-pressed to cover in a third straight contest on Saturday, however, as the scene shifts to San Francisco for Game 3. You can be sure Ja Morant's 'you can't guard me' proclamation hasn't sat well with Steph Curry and the rest of the Warriors. Golden State will be out to make an example of Morant and the Grizz on Saturday and I'm confident we'll see them do just that. While the Warriors will be without Gary Payton II, the Grizzlies will miss Dillon Brooks as he serves his one-game suspension for the hard foul on Payton in Game 2. Brooks' absence is arguably more critical. Here, we'll note that Golden State has gone 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge for a road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by a convincing 11.2 points on average in that spot. This series will likely still feature plenty of twists and turns but I believe Saturday's outcome will be fairly straight-forward. Take Golden State (6*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 46 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Golden State at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. Most already have the Warriors advancing past the Grizzlies in this series, especially after Memphis came so close but seemed so far in Sunday's Game 1 loss. There were positives for the Grizzlies to take away from that setback, however. They got off 95 field goal attempts. That's notable considering the Warriors allowed more than 87 field goal attempts just once in their opening round series against Denver. They also shot better from beyond the arc and got to the free throw line four more times than Golden State. We know there's still some inconsistency in the Warriors game - perhaps a product of so many key pieces being in and out of the lineup over the course of the season. Memphis knows it can hang with Golden State and a one-point loss in the series opener won't do anything to change that. The Grizzlies have still won three of five meetings between these two teams this season. They know, however, that Game 2 is essentially a 'must-win' as they're unlikely to take three of four games in San Francisco, where the Warriors are 34-10 SU this season. Take Memphis (5*). | |||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Milwaukee at 7 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics didn't bring their 'A' game in the opener of this series or anything close to it. They managed to knock down just 28 field goals yet still lost by 'only' 12 points. Perhaps that poor offensive performance was to be expected as they were coming off a five-day layoff thanks to their opening round sweep of the Nets. Here, we'll confidently back the C's noting they've gone a perfect 9-0 ATS after being held to 95 points or less in their previous game this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.6 points in that spot. The Bucks on the other hand are a woeful 18-30 ATS when coming off four wins in their last five games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Milwaukee has now reeled off four consecutive wins both SU and ATS but streaks like that are uncommon in the postseason and I look for it to grind to a halt here as the Celtics win this one going away to get back in the series. Take Boston (9*). | |||||||
04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Atlanta at 7 pm et on Tuesday. | |||||||
04-19-22 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Suns | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Tuesday. Few are giving the Pelicans any chance of winning this series. While I tend to agree, I do expect them to give the Suns all they can handle in Game 2 on Tuesday night. Everything went right for Phoenix in Game 1. It shot the lights out (just shy of 54% from the field). Interestingly, however, New Orleans actually got plenty of looks, hoisting up 95 field goal attempts. It got to the free throw line five more times than Phoenix. In other words, there's reason for optimism entering Game 2. The Pelicans quite simply didn't make their shots in Game 1. Keep in mind, this is a team that had made good on 40+ field goals in 23 of their last 24 games entering this series. Also note that the Pelicans have limited three of their last seven opponents to 78 or fewer FG attempts, including the Suns in Game 1 (they attempted 78 field goals). Here, we'll note that New Orleans is 36-24 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.5 points on average in that situation. The Suns have outscored opponents by only 4.1 points on average when coming off a double-digit home win over the last two seasons (40-game sample size), as is the case here. While the Pelicans haven't been a great road team this season going 18-25 SU (one of those wins came here in Phoenix), they've only been outscored by an average margin of 3.3 points. I'm expecting a competitive affair on Tuesday. Take New Orleans (9*). | |||||||
04-18-22 | Nuggets +7 v. Warriors | 106-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Golden State at 10 pm et on Monday. The Warriors rode the emotional wave of Steph Curry's return to an easy 16-point win in Saturday's series-opener. Golden State was ahead by 20 points entering the fourth quarter in that contest as the Nuggets simply didn't bring enough intensity to stay competitive. I do expect a strong response from Denver on Monday, noting that it has already won twice in San Francisco this season. Here, we'll note that the Nuggets check in 17-7 when playing on the road after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 8.5 points on average in that situation. Better still, they're 14-4 ATS when on the road seeking to avenge consecutive losses against an opponent over the last three seasons, which is also the situation here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.0 point in that spot. Interestingly, the Warriors have only gotten off 81, 81 and 82 field goal attempts over their last three games. In fact, they've been held to 84 or fewer FG attempts in seven of their last eight games overall. Denver on the other hand, has hoisted up 93+ FG attempts in three of its last four games. That while holding three of its last four opponents to fewer than 90 attempts from the field. I'm expecting a more competitive affair than we saw on Saturday as the Nuggets look to even up the series before heading back to Denver. Take Denver (6*). | |||||||
04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Utah at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Luka-less Mavericks battled hard but ultimately fell by six points in the opener of this series on Saturday. While most have written the Mavs off as long as Luka is unable to return (it doesn't look like he'll play on Monday), I'm confident they can get back at the Jazz in what is essentially a 'must-win' game on Monday. For the third straight game, we saw Utah held to 37 or fewer made field goals on Saturday. As I noted in my analysis of my 'under' play in that game, the Mavs certainly lose a ton offensively with Luka Doncic sidelined, but that's not the case at the defensive end of the floor. Dallas can be an elite defensive team at times and we've certainly seen that lately as it has held three of its last four opponents to 36 or fewer made field goals. Also note that four of the Mavs last seven opponents have only managed to get off 83 or fewer field goal attempts. I certainly don't expect anything to come easy for the Jazz offensively on Monday. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Utah attempted more than 88 field goals. Here, we'll note that the Mavs are 16-3 ATS when coming off a game in which they scored 100 points or less this season, outscoring opponents by 0.4 points on average in that spot. The Jazz are a woeful 10-21 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games this season, as is the case here. They've been anything but reliable away from home, going 18-24 ATS including 4-12 ATS over their last 16 contests in enemy territory. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
04-12-22 | Clippers +3 v. Wolves | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 26 m | Show |
Play-In Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Minnesota at 9:30 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Clippers as they look to book a trip to Memphis for a first round playoff series against the Grizzlies. They'll need to get past the upstart T'Wolves first. Minnesota enters this showdown playing little to no defense at all, having allowed its last seven opponents to make good on 49, 48, 46, 48, 56, 43 and 44 field goals. It has incredibly held only two opponents to fewer than 102 points going all the way back to January 18th. Contrast that with the Clippers, who enter this game having held their last two opponents to 98 points or less. While the T'Wolves do boast an exceptional offense, the Clippers have been every bit as good lately. Los Angeles checks in having knocked down 41, 45, 56, 45, 33, 42 and 54 field goals over its last seven games. It shot 54-of-97 from the field in Sunday's regular season finale against Oklahoma City despite sitting Paul George, Reggie Jackson and others. What I like about the Clippers, in addition to the fact that they're well-coached (Tyronn Lue is one of the most underrated coaches in the NBA today in my opinion), is that they play some defense. They've limited three of their last four opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Note that the Clips took three of four regular season meetings between these two teams, including both here in Minnesota. The lone loss came in early January when they were in a bit of a swoon and you could understand them letting down their guard having won the previous three meetings at the time - all by double-digit margins. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
04-10-22 | Kings v. Suns -14 | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Sacramento at 9:40 pm et on Sunday. I like the way the Suns have been forcing the issue down the stretch, regardless who is in or out of the lineup, getting off 92+ field goal attempts in each of their last three games and scoring 121, 109 and 111 points in the process, winning two of those three games. Here, they should find continued success against a Kings squad that waved the white flag a long time ago and checks in having allowed 41+ made field goals in 11 consecutive games, while making good on fewer than 40 field goals themselves in six of their last 10 contests. Sacramento has had a tough enough time just getting shots off lately, hoisting up just 81, 81, 76 and 86 field goal attempts over its last four contests. Phoenix meanwhile has knocked down 50, 42 and 46 field goals over its last three games and has made good on 42, 44 and 46 field goals in its previous three meetings with Sacramento this season. Defensively, we've seen the Suns clamp down lately, yielding opponents' fewer than 90 FG attempts in seven of their last eight contests. They're just one game removed from limiting the Clippers to 33-of-75 shooting. Take Phoenix (6*). | |||||||
04-04-22 | North Carolina v. Kansas -4 | Top | 69-72 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over North Carolina at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We've been on the sidelines for Kansas' tournament run but I'll step in confidently and back the Jayhawks here as they clash with North Carolina in the National Title Game on Monday night. North Carolina has afforded its opponents far too many scoring opportunities for my liking. Even in its thrilling win over Duke on Saturday, it yielded a whopping 72 field goal attempts. Over their last five contests, the Tar Heels have allowed 73, 81 (aided by overtime against Baylor), 62, 60 and 72 FG attempts. While they've done a nice job defensively as a whole, they've still allowed 25, 26, 28, 28, 18 and 30 made field goals over their last six contests. The outlier over that stretch was a game against an overmatched St. Peter's squad in the Elite Eight. In stark contrast, Kansas has allowed its last five opponents to knock down just 19, 21, 23, 19 and 22 field goals. Again, some of that has to do with the opposition simply not making their shots. However, Kansas has been doing it all season, allowing just 25 made field goals including only six from beyond the arc per game on average away from home. What I really like about the Jayhawks is the way they've tightened the screws defensively lately, giving up fewer than 60 FG attempt in four of their last five and six of their last eight contests overall. On the flip side, the Jayhawks have made good on 33, 30, 22, 34, 27, 22. 29 and 29 field goals over their last eight games - you get the picture, they've been ultra-consistent. The two outliers (22 made field goals) came in relatively low-scoring affairs against Texas Tech and Providence, two excellent teams in their own right. They still won both of those games by five or more points. North Carolina has actually knocked down 27 or fewer field goals in five of its last seven games. It has had plenty of success getting to the free throw line but faces a Kansas squad that affords its opponents just 17 free throw attempts per game this season. While we can't project the Jayhawks to go off from beyond the arc the way they did against Villanova in the Final Four, we also can't expect North Carolina to get off 64 FG attempts or get to the line 24 times the way it did against Duke on Saturday. Take Kansas (10*). | |||||||
04-03-22 | Wolves v. Rockets +12.5 | 139-132 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston plus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. This is simply too many points for the T'Wolves to be laying given how poorly they've been playing defensively. Minnesota checks in having yielded 49, 48 and 46 made field goals over its last three games but is coming off a 106-100 win as a three-point underdog in Denver two nights ago. It's not as if the Wolves have been unstoppable offensively lately either, knocking down 43 or fewer field goals in five of their last six contests. The Rockets, meanwhile, have gone winless through the first three games on their current four-game homestand. With that being said, those three previous losses have come by just 3, 3 and 5 points. Despite playing at a fast pace, six of Houston's last seven opponents have made good on 44 or fewer field goals. We've seen the Rockets start pushing the pace again over their last couple of games, getting off 94 and 97 field goal attempts against the Kings. They should be afforded a similar number of opportunities here with Minnesota having yielded opponents 90+ FG attempts in five of its last nine contests. The T'Wolves 'only' won by 18 points in the most recent meeting between these two teams despite shooting a ridiculous 55-of-108 from the field. Take Houston (8*). | |||||||
04-02-22 | Hornets +5.5 v. 76ers | 114-144 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Philadelphia at 12:40 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the Hornets in this early matchup on Saturday. Charlotte has quietly won eight of its last 10 games overall. You would have to go all the way back to February 5th to find the last time the Hornets were held to fewer than 100 points. They've made good on 40+ field goals in 10 straight games. Simply put, they're rolling right now. Meanwhile, the 76ers continue to scuffle along. They dropped an ugly 102-94 decision in Detroit two nights ago. In stark contrast to the Hornets, the Sixers have been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in seven of their last 12 contests. Meanwhile, their defense has sagged, yielding 45, 44 and 41 made field goals in their last three games. While ordinarily I would assume that Philadelphia could frustrate Charlotte by slowing the pace here, I'm not sure that will be the case noting that the Hornets have actually limited four of their last five opponents to 86 or fewer FG attempts. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
03-28-22 | Bulls v. Knicks +5 | 104-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday. The Bulls have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone making them lately, attempting just 78 and 75 field goals over their last two games. It's not as if those two contests came against elite defensive teams either. The first was against a 'defense-optional' Pelicans squad and the next came against a reeling Cavaliers defense. Here, Chicago will face rival New York, noting that you would have to go back to March 13th against Brooklyn to find the last time the Knicks allowed more than 42 made field goals in a game. The Knicks have actually won three games in a row SU but did lose ATS yesterday in Detroit, which actually works in our favor here with the line creeping up in favor of the Bulls. Note that there's been little to choose between these two teams this season with all three of the previous matchups decided by six points or less. I'll grab the points here. Take New York (8*). | |||||||
03-26-22 | Arkansas +4 v. Duke | Top | 69-78 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Duke at 8:45 pm et on Saturday. We won with Arkansas in its stunning upset win over number-one seed Gonzaga two nights ago and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. The Razorbacks actually made some poor choices shooting the basketball early in the shot clock down the stretch in that win over Gonzaga and ultimately made good on just 29-of-72 field goal attempts but their relentless defense frustrated the Zags all night and I expect more of the same here (but with better shot selection offensively). Duke has been red hot shooting the ball but what happens if those shots suddenly stop falling? Interestingly, it has only gotten off 58, 56 and 54 field goal attempts in its first three tournament games (it averages 60 FG attempts per contest away from home this season). I'm concerned with the Blue Devils inability to control their opponents' tempo, having yielded 64+ FG attempts in each of their last seven games. Even a lukewarm Texas Tech offense was able to make good on 31 field goals on Thursday, even though it wasn't enough to topple the Blue Devils. Going back to March 5th against North Carolina, Duke has now allowed 33, 27, 31, 32, 24, 27 and 31 made field goals over its last seven contests. Meanwhile, only one of the Hogs last seven opponents has managed to knock down more than 26 field goals. Take Arkansas (10*). | |||||||
03-25-22 | Warriors +3 v. Hawks | 110-121 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I think the case can be made that the wrong team is being favored in this matchup. Yes, the Warriors have been unsteady, particularly since losing Steph Curry to injury. However, they did rebound with a big win in Miami two nights ago (with Klay Thompson resting) and I look for them to build on that performance here. Note that the Warriors continue to play exceptional defense. They've held seven of their last eight opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Only one of their last four opponents has managed to get off more than 85 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to tonight's opponent, Atlanta, which has allowed 12 straight opponents to knock down 40+ field goals. Incredibly, you would have to go all the way back to January 28th against Boston to find the last time it held an opponent to fewer than 100 points. The Warriors have accomplished that feat four times since then. The Hawks haven't exactly been lighting it up offensively either. Yes, they went off thanks to Trae Young's heroics at Madison Square Garden earlier this week. However, they've been held to 40 or fewer made field goals in four of their last six games. Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Pacers +12.5 v. Grizzlies | 103-133 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Memphis at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pacers suffered a disappointing home loss to the lowly Kings last night, snapping a two-game winning streak. I look for them to bounce back with a better performance against a much tougher opponents in Memphis on Thursday. Note that the Pacers continue to thrive offensively, making good on 41+ field goals in eight straight games entering Thursday's contest. On the flip side, we've seen Indiana hold its last three opponents to 79, 81 and 82 field goal attempts. I don't need to tell you that if they're able to continue that trend here it will be awfully tough for the Grizzlies to cover such a lofty pointspread. Memphis is coming off a dominant win over the Nets at home last night. Like the Pacers, they've continued to roll offensively, however they've actually allowed 41+ made field goals in four of their last five contests - only the reeling Rockets failed to reach that mark over that stretch. Here, I think there's a good chance we see Memphis 'manage' proceedings, noting that it has a four-game in six-night stretch on deck, beginning Saturday against the defending champion Bucks. Take Indiana (9*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Bulls v. Pelicans +1.5 | Top | 109-126 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans are a team we want to back right now, checking in 4-1 ATS over their last five games and well-positioned to bounce back following a loss in Charlotte three nights ago. New Orleans has been incredibly consistent offensively, making good on 40+ field goals in 12 consecutive games entering Thursday's contest. That's not to mention the fact that it has held seven straight opponents to 90 or fewer field goal attempts and three of those seven opponents to less than 80. That spells trouble for a Bulls squad that has seen its season go off the rails, losing nine of its last 12 games. Chicago has knocked down fewer than 40 field goals in four of its last six games. Meanwhile, it has given up 42, 47, 40 and 50 made field goals over its last four contests. Look for a revenge-minded Pelicans squad (the Bulls took the only previous meeting this season by 16 points in Chicago back in October) to prevail on Thursday. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
03-24-22 | Arkansas +9.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 74-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Arkansas plus the points over Gonzaga at 7:05 pm et on Thursday. Arkansas enters this showdown with Gonzaga having dropped the cash in three straight games so this is a slam dunk for the number-one ranked Bulldogs, right? I'm not so sure. The Razorbacks have thrived in the role of underdog, going a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four games in that role. The Hogs are here despite knocking down just 14 field goals against New Mexico State. Only once previously this season did they make good on fewer than 20 field goals in a game (they still won that contest against Tennessee). In their next game following that poor shooting performance, they knocked down 29-of-63 field goal attempts in an 82-74 win at Florida. Here, the Hogs should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities, noting that Gonzaga yields a ton of FG attempts, generally between 60-70 per game (an average of 65 away from home this season). Of course, the Razorbacks haven't been a great shooting team this season but they 'find a way' getting to the free throw line at an incredible rate. There's certainly room for some regression from the Zags offense here after shooting 51% and 52% in their first two games in this tournament. Arkansas certainly poses a challenge defensively, ranking 14th in the country according to KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric. The Razorbacks check in having allowed 53 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last five games. I like the 'no one believes in us' angle that underdogs of this nature tend to carry at this point of the tournament, and that's certainly been played up by Hogs head coach Eric Musselman in the days leading up to this game. I look for this one to go down to the wire. Take Arkansas (10*). | |||||||
03-23-22 | 76ers -7 v. Lakers | Top | 126-121 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Lakers are coming off a surprising double-digit win on Monday night in Cleveland. Perhaps that victory shouldn't have come as much of a surprise, however, given Lebron James is obviously always going to get up for homecoming games, not to mention the fact that the Cavs have been playing an uneven brand of basketball for weeks now. We should see a different story unfold on Wednesday as the Lakers return home to host the 76ers. Philadelphia posted a seven-point win over Miami as an eight-point underdog on Monday (without Joel Embiid and James Harden). The Sixers have been smothering opposing offenses, holding four of their last five opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts. Their last four opponents have managed to knock down only 39, 37, 35 and 38 field goals. That's a stark contrast to the Lakers non-existent defense, which has yielded 40, 49, 44 and 45 made field goals over its last four contests. Yes, L.A. has gone off offensively over its last few games but it will be taking a step up in class here against a 76ers defense that allows an average of 39-for-85 shooting on the road this season, including just 11-of-33 from three-point range. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
03-23-22 | Washington State v. BYU -3 | Top | 77-58 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU minus the points over Washington State at 9 pm et on Wednesday. I don't believe BYU is getting enough respect given how well it has played over the last month. The Cougars check in 5-2 SU and ATS over their last seven contests with their only two losses over that stretch coming against NCAA Tournament-bound teams in St. Mary's and San Francisco. While Washington State has been playing well also, having won six of its last seven overall, it has also caught some good fortune along the way, particularly here in the NIT as its last two opponents have combined to shoot a woeful 40-of-118 from the field. Some of that can obviously be chalked up to good defense, but I'm of the belief that sometimes the shots just don't fall (note that prior to its last two contests, Washington State had allowed 25+ made field goals in five of its last seven games). Note that the Cougars of Washington State have actually afforded their opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, yielding 64, 61, 60 and 58 field goal attempts over their last four games. Give BYU that many chances and it will take advantage, noting that the Cougars are scorching hot right now, having made good on 32+ field goals in four of their last six games and and incredible 72-for-134 from the field over their last two contests alone. Meanwhile, the BYU defense has done a good job of limiting its opponents opportunities, allowing 58 or fewer FG attempts in four straight games. Keep in mind, Washington State has struggled to knock down its shots all season, particularly away from home where it averages only 24-of-61 shooting. By contrast, BYU has averaged four more field goals per game on one fewer attempt here at home (28-of-60). Take BYU (10*). | |||||||
03-21-22 | Northern Colorado v. North Carolina-Asheville +1.5 | Top | 87-84 | Loss | -106 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
CBI Game of the Year. My selection is on UNC-Asheville plus the points over Northern Colorado at 3:30 pm et on Monday. Both of these teams staged upset victories in their respective opening round CBI matchups. I look for UNC-Asheville to be the team playing on following Monday's clash at Daytona Beach. Asheville has been nothing if not consistent offensively, making good on 25+ field goals in eight of its last nine games. While it has proven vulnerable defensively it hasn't shown a tendency to let opponents get out and run recently, limiting five of its last seven opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. That's a stark contrast to Northern Colorado, which has given up 60+ FG attempts in four of its last five games and 70+ in two of its last three contests. Northern Colorado relies heavily on the three-ball to support its offense and that's notable as UNC-Asheville checks in allowing just five made threes per game away from home this season. We've certainly seen some inconsistency from the Bears lately as they're just one game removed from making good on only 19 field goals in an 88-67 loss to Montana State. They've been held to 57 or fewer FG attempts in four of their last six games overall. There's little reason to think Asheville won't be able to 'fill it up' here, with the Bears yielding 25+ made field goals in seven of their last eight games and 28+ in half of those contests. You could certainly argue that Northern Colorado is fortunate to still be playing, surviving against Florida Atlantic last time out despite the Owls getting off 14 more FG attempts in a game that went right down to the wire. Asheville is'nt likely to beat itself here, noting that it has been quite disciplined away from home this season, sending opponents to the free throw line only 15 times per contest while getting there 20 times per game itself. Take UNC-Asheville (10*). | |||||||
03-20-22 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Auburn | Top | 79-61 | Win | 100 | 35 h 25 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Second Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Auburn at 7:45 pm et on Sunday. At 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games, the Miami Hurricanes have been one of the best bets in the country over the last month-plus. I certainly don't expect them to back down against the Auburn Tigers - one of the favorites to win the National Championship - on Sunday. Miami has been doing a terrific job of limiting its opponents' scoring opportunities and that continued against USC in the opening round. The Canes have held 10 of their last 12 opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. While a number of their recent opponents have made the most of their opportunities, I'm not convinced we'll see Auburn do that here. Note that the Tigers have made good on 28 or fewer field goals in seven straight games, despite getting off 61 or more attempts in all but two of those contests. On the flip side, Auburn's relatively fast-pace does afford opponents plenty of scoring opportunities, as it checks in having yielded 61, 67, 64, 57 and 61 field goal attempts over its last five contests. Miami figures to take advantage, noting that the Canes have knocked down 28+ field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. I actually see this one playing out similarly to the Canes recent ACC Tournament matchup with Duke - a game in which they scored 76 points and lost by only four points. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
03-19-22 | Lakers v. Wizards -1.5 | 119-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. Both teams are in a back-to-back spot here and while the Lakers check in off an overtime win over the Raptors, the Wizards are coming off their sixth consecutive loss. I like Washington to bounce back here, however, as it returns home before heading out on the road for another three. The Wizards offense has gotten bogged down lately, attempting 87 or fewer field goals in 10 straight games, winning only twice over that stretch. Here, it should benefit from a lot more scoring opportunities against a Lakers squad that has had no ability, or interest in controlling opponents' tempo, yielding 90+ FG attempts in seven of their last nine contests. This is a quick rematch between these two teams after the Lakers won by 13 in Los Angeles last Friday. L.A. shot the lights out in that game but I expect a different story to unfold here, noting that the Lakers average just 109.0 points per game when coming off a win this season (2.1 points per game less than their season scoring average), outscored by 3.8 points on average in that spot. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
03-18-22 | Clippers +6.5 v. Jazz | Top | 92-121 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers enter Friday's game in Utah off consecutive losses but extended losing streaks have certainly not been common for them this season, with their longest lasting just three games. I expect them to bounce back here against an undermanned Jazz squad that will be without both Donovan Mitchell and Bojan Bogdanovic (that duo combined to shoot 17-of-25 in the most recent meeting between these two teams in December). While Los Angeles has lost back-to-back games, I like what I've seen from it defensively as it has limited its last three opponents to just 80, 86 and 83 field goal attempts. Of the Clippers last eight opponents, only two have managed to get off 90+ FG attempts. After allowing five straight opponents to make good on 41 or more field goals, the Clips have now held two of their last three opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. The Jazz haven't been able to get out and run as much as they would likely lately, and when they have, they've struggled shooting the ball. They've attempted fewer than 90 field goals in six of their last eight contests. In the other two games they shot a miserable 37-of-92 and 37-of-93 in outright losses as favorites against the Bucks and Spurs. Meanwhile, Utah has allowed its last three opponents to knock down 47, 40 and 43 field goals, giving up 125, 117 and 110 points in the process. Of Utah's last eight opponents, four of them have gotten off 91+ FG attempts. Keep in mind, the Clippers are just one game removed from hoisting up 98 FG attempts in a loss to the Cavs. I think we'll see the revenge-minded Clips afforded plenty of scoring opportunities in this one. Note that while Utah took the most recent meeting between these two teams, that was only thanks to shooting the lights out (47-of-89 - with Mitchell and Bogdanovic key contributors as I mentioned earlier). Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
03-18-22 | Chattanooga +8 v. Illinois | Top | 53-54 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Chattanooga plus the points over Illinonis at 6:50 pm et on Friday. I'm confident Chattanooga will be afforded more than enough opportunities to ultimately make life difficult on Illinois and ultimately take this one down to the wire. The Mocs are one of the more underrated teams entering this tournament in my opinion. They caught fire down the stretch and come in playing extremely consistent basketball at both ends of the floor. The Mocs knocked down 25+ field goals in each of their last eight games. You would have to go all the way back to January 12th to find the last time they failed to reach at least 21 made field goals in a game - in fact that was the only time that happened all season. While I'm well aware that Chattanooga plays in a lower-tier conference than Illinois but let's face it, upsets happen in March. The Mocs are capable of hanging with the Illini here, noting that they've done a terrific job of limiting their opponents opportunities, especially when the chips were down, allowing just 54, 57, 48 and 52 field goal attempts over their last four games. No surprise they yielded 66 points or fewer in all four of those contests. They only allowed 60+ FG attempts in four of their last 17 games. The argument could be made that Illinois peaked in late February, when they delivered consecutive wins over Ohio State and Michigan. From there the Illini went 0-3 ATS over their last three games. In one of those contests they outlasted Penn State 60-55 in a game where they knocked down just 18 field goals. While Chattanooga has done a tremendous job of controlling its opponents' tempo, Illinois checks in having yielded 60+ FG attempts in seven of their last 16 games. Again, I realize the gap between the two conferences but I still feel the discrepancy is worth noting. The Illini allowed 27+ made field goals in five of their last seven games. I don't believe there's as much separating these two teams as seems to be indicated by the pointspread. Take Chattanooga (10*). | |||||||
03-17-22 | Vermont +5.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 80 h 18 m | Show |
My selection is on Vermont plus the points over Arkansas at 9:20 pm et on Thursday. There's obviously a lot of mental gymnastics that need to take place to figure out where teams from completely different conferences (and in turn level of opposition) stand as we head into the opening round matchups in the NCAA Tournament. Here, I do like Vermont's chances against what I consider to be an overrated Arkansas squad. The Catamounts absolutely laid waste to the opposition in the America East Conference down the stretch. Over their last eight games they've allowed more than 20 field goals in a game only three times (23 was the high-water mark over that stretch), limiting four of those opponents to 19 or less. I'm not sure their offense gets enough credit. They head into the NCAA Tournament having knocked down 28, 37, 26 and 37 field goals over their last four games, topping out at 63 attempts over that stretch. In other words, they're comfortable playing at a fast pace while also severely limiting their opponents scoring opportunities. Arkansas might just have peaked from mid-February into early-March, culminating with two near-perfect performances in victories over Kentucky and LSU. In three games since, we've seen the Razorbacks make good on just 23, 24 and 23 field goals. Meanwhile, they've been uneven defensively, allowing 30, 26, 23, 18 and 31 made field goals over their last five contests. They haven't really shown all that much interest in controlling their opponents' tempo, yielding 61+ FG attempts in three of their last five games. While Arkansas will undoubtedly be a popular sleeper pick, I expect it to get all it can handle against an experienced and talented Vermont squad on Thursday. Take Vermont (9*). | |||||||
03-17-22 | Norfolk State +21.5 v. Baylor | 49-85 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Norfolk State plus the points over Baylor at 2 pm et on Thursday. Baylor has obviously played a lot of basketball since the start of last season, ultimately going all the way to take down last year's National Championship with a memorable NCAA Tournament run. To me, it seemed like the Bears wore down as the regular season went on this year. Note that they check into their first round NCAA Tourney matchup against Norfolk State having gone 8-13 ATS over their last 21 games. To find the last time Baylor knocked down 30+ field goals in a game you would have to go all the way back to January 31st against West Virginia. Even in that game, the Bears only won by four points, failing to sniff out a cover of the 13-point spread. While the Bears are known for their defense, they were by no means a shut down unit in that regard down the stretch. They enter this tourney having allowed 26+ made field goals in five of their last seven contests. Also notable is the fact that they yielded plenty of scoring opportunities, giving up 62, 62, 70, 60, 59 and 51 FG attempts over their last six games. Norfolk State obviously represents a step down in class for the Bears. But let's not completely write off this Spartans squad. They showed the ability to get out and run when they needed to over the course of the season and check in after hitting 29, 31, 21, 26 and 24 field goals over their last five games. Even in the 21 and 24 FG performances they still put up 72+ points on both occasions (note that they attempted exactly 50 FG's in both of those games). Norfolk State was certainly locked-in defensively down the stretch, yielding 23 or fewer made field goals in each of their last six games, despite five of those opponents getting off 59+ FG attempts. I'm not convinced there's enough runway for the Bears to win this one in a true rout. Take Norfolk State (8*). | |||||||
03-16-22 | Iona +7 v. Florida | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 58 h 34 m | Show |
NIT First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Iona plus the points over Florida at 9 pm et on Wednesday. Iona is more accustomed to playing in the NCAA Tournament rather than the NIT in recent years but here it is, drawing Florida in the opening round of the NIT on Wednesday. I like the Gaels chances of not only staying inside the pointspread but potentially staging the upset here. Iona checks in having knocked down 31, 27, 23, 29, 29 and 25 field goals over its last six games, falling just a point short against Rider an upset loss as an 11.5-point favorite in the MAAC Tournament. The Gaels may have overlooked Rider in that contest as they simply didn't show up defensively, allowing the Broncs to shoot 29-of-57 from the field. Prior to that they had held six of their last eight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals, going 6-2 SU over that stretch. We saw Florida get drawn into some up-tempo affairs down the stretch, getting off 60+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games. That's obviously the pace Iona prefers and given where this total sits, that's the type of affair we can anticipate here. Concerning is the fact that the Gators allowed their last five opponents to knock down 29, 27, 30, 28 and 24 field goals, despite the fact that only one of those opponents got off more than 58 FG attempts. Take Iona (10*). | |||||||
03-15-22 | Nets -9.5 v. Magic | Top | 150-108 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off a SU win but ATS loss against the Knicks on Sunday while the Magic have quietly reeled off four consecutive ATS wins entering Tuesday's matchup in Orlando. I like the way this one sets up for the Nets, however. Note that Brooklyn has been ultra-efficient offensively of late, knocking down 45, 46, 51 and 44 field goals over its last four games despite getting off 90+ field goal attempts only once over that stretch. Orlando has been hanging in there largely due to its opposition struggling in terms of FG%, noting that it has actually yielded 90+ field goal attempts in seven straight and nine of its last 10 games overall. If the pace gets up to that level tonight, there's a good chance we see the Nets 'go off' offensively given the way they've been shooting. On the flip side, Brooklyn limited New York to just 83 FG attempts in Sunday's narrow victory and has held three of its last five opponents to 83 FG attempts or fewer. The Nets last two opponents have made good on just 30 and 39 field goals. Note that the Magic, despite getting off a reasonable 88 FG attempts per game here at home, have only managed to knock down an average of 38 field goals per contest. There is valid concern here that the Nets elect to 'manage' this game given they have a big home date with the Mavericks on deck tomorrow. However, this will be just their second game in the last five nights, and tomorrow's contest will begin a very manageable three-game in six-night homestand, so those concerns can be tempered somewhat. Considering the Magic took the last meeting between these two teams by a 100-93 score in Brooklyn back in mid-December, we'll back a revenge-minded Nets squad laying what I consider to be a reasonable number on Tuesday night. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
03-14-22 | Raptors -4 v. Lakers | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Monday. The Raptors have quietly turned things around following a disappointing four-game losing streak, reeling off three straight wins despite running into two hot shooting opponents in Phoenix and Denver over their last two contests. The Raps have done an excellent job of limiting their opponents scoring opportunities lately, yielding just 85, 84, 88 and 78 field goal attempts over their last four games. The Suns and Nuggets managed to knock down 44 and 43 of those attempts over the last two games but I certainly don't anticipate the Lakers reaching those levels here. Los Angeles made good on only 36-of-81 FG attempts in a 140-111 loss in Phoenix last night. While the Lakers have hit 41+ field goals in five of their last six games, the majority of those contests were played at a very fast pace. Los Angeles has gotten off 91+ FG attempts in three of its last four games - a number I don't see it approaching here. The Raptors, meanwhile, have been forcing the issue offensively, getting off 93+ FG attempts in four of their last five games and should be able to find continued success against a Lakers squad that has had no luck or interest in slowing opponents down, yielding 93, 92, 84, 102, 85 and 102 FG attempts over their last six games (one of those 102's came by way of overtime in Houston). The Raptors have knocked down 41, 42 and 48 field goals over their last three games, putting up 119, 117 and 127 points along the way. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
03-14-22 | Blazers +14 v. Hawks | Top | 113-122 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Portland plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in the Hawks wild, high-scoring win over the Pacers last night. I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade Atlanta on Monday as it stays home to host the lowly Blazers. Portland snapped its six-game losing streak with a 127-118 win over the Wizards on Saturday. There's reason to be somewhat positive about the Blazers, even with all of their injuries and after their pre-trade deadline fire sale. I say that because they've held 10 of their last 11 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts and better still, four of their last five opponents to 85 or fewer FG attempts. Two of their last three opponents have knocked down fewer than 40 field goals. Meanwhile, the Hawks have hit 40+ field goals in four straight games. That's with getting off 90+ FG attempts in two of those three contests, however. More concerning is the fact that Atlanta has yielded 52, 46, 43, 47, 40 and 46 made field goals over its last six games. It's not as if the pace has necessarily dictated those high field goal totals either as four of those six opponents attempted fewer than 90 field goals. You would have to go all the way back to January 28th to find the last time an opponent didn't score 100+ points against the Hawks. Also of note is the fact that the Hawks could very well elect to 'manage' this game as they're in the midst of a stretch that will see them play 11 games in 19 nights and as I mentioned on the second of back-to-backs after a fairly taxing contest last night. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | Texas A&M Corpus Christi v. Southeastern Louisiana | 73-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas A&M-Corpus Christi minus the points over Southeastern Louisiana at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams enter the Southland Conference Championship Game playing their best basketball of the season. I simply feel Corpus Christi has been the better all-around team all season and will prove it in this winner-take-all showdown on Saturday night. Note that the Islanders come into this game having allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in seven of their last eight games. They like to slow the pace, which doesn't suit Southeastern Louisiana all that well. Note that the Lions have made good on 26+ field goals in five straight games but they got off 60+ attempts in three of those five contests. Slow it down and I don't anticipate SE Louisiana enjoying nearly as much success here. On the flip side, the Lions have been lit up for 29+ made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Yes, they play at a faster pace so that is to be expected, but perhaps not to the level we've seen. Note that four of the Lions last five opponents got into the 30's in terms of made field goals. They're here thanks to New Orleans having an off night shooting the basketball on Friday, making good on just 25-of-62 attempts. Provided the Islanders can shoot for average on Saturday, as I expect them to do (they shoot 44.4% from the field this season), I'm confident they'll prevail. Take Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (8*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | Bucks v. Warriors +1.5 | 109-122 | Win | 100 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. Both of these teams come in playing well but it's the Bucks that have been doing it for a longer period, securing six straight wins heading into this clash. The Warriors, meanwhile, righted the ship with consecutive wins over the Clippers and Nuggets this week. I like Golden State to keep it going on Saturday. The Warriors are absolutely locked-in defensively right now. Over their last two games they held L.A. and Denver to a combined 68-for-177 (38.4%) shooting. Meanwhile, despite missing a number of key contributors on any given night, their offense has thrived, knocking down 40+ field goals and scoring 112+ points in six straight games. The Bucks defense is vulnerable right now, having allowed 44, 47, 50, 42 and 43 made field goals over their last five games. In fact, each of their last four opponents have shot 50% or better from the field. While the Milwaukee offense continues to hum along, shooting 50% or better in three straight contests heading into this showdown, I'm anticipating some regression against a revenge-minded Warriors squad here (Milwaukee took the first meeting by 19 points at home in January). Take Golden State (8*). | |||||||
03-12-22 | San Diego State -2 v. Boise State | Top | 52-53 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 18 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on San Diego State minus the points over Boise State at 6 pm et on Saturday. The Aztecs are hoping it will be 'third time's a charm' against Boise State after dropping both regular season meetings by a combined six points. I like their chances of exacting revenge at the best possible time in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game on Saturday. San Diego State is absolutely locked-in defensively right now, having allowed 23 or fewer made field goals in nine straight games heading into this one. While saying that the Aztecs have made good on 20+ field goals in 12 straight games doesn't sound like much, it is a major positive when you consider the low pace they play at (they attempted fewer than 50 field goals in half of those contests). Boise State isn't playing at the same level defensively as San Diego State, having yielded 26, 26, 28, 26 and 23 made field goals over its last five games. After shooting 50% or better from the field in four straight games, the Broncos cooled off to knock down just 23-of-49 shots in their semi-final victory over Wyoming. Note that in the two regular season matchups between the Aztecs and Broncos it was San Diego State that held a 38-31 edge in terms of field goals made. Boise State, however, got to the free throw line 21 more times across the two games, which ultimately proved to be the difference on both occasions. It's difficult to project that happening again here, noting that Boise State averages just two more FT attempts per game than San Diego State this season. Take San Diego State (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Wizards +4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 109-122 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:40 pm et on Friday. The Wizards opened their current road trip with a six-point loss against the Clippers two nights ago. They're still a solid 5-4 ATS over their last nine games with their four ATS losses over that stretch coming by a combined seven points. We've seen Washington make a concerted effort, at least seemingly, to slow down opposing offenses recently, limiting nine of its last 12 opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. The Wizards last two opponents have quite simply shot the lights out, something I don't anticipate the Lakers doing tonight. Offensively, the Wiz have been 'filling it up', knocking down 41, 46, 45 and 41 field goals over their last four games, despite getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts in all four of those contests. In fact, they've knocked down 40+ field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Here, the Wiz should be afforded plenty of scoring opportunities against a non-existent Lakers defense. Los Angeles has shown no ability (or interest) to slow down opposing offenses, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in three of its last four games (it allows an average of 91 FG attempts per game at home this season). Each of the Lakers last seven opponents have made good on at least 41 field goal attempts, with five of them knocking down 46+. While the Lakers have been doing a solid job of keeping pace, hitting 40+ field goals in four straight games, I'm not convinced the pace will be there for them to reach that number tonight. Note that the Wizards allow an average of 40-of-88 shooting on the road this season. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Richmond v. VCU -2.5 | Top | 75-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on VCU minus the points over Richmond at 8:30 pm et on Friday. VCU will be trying to accomplish the difficult task of defeating the same team three times in one season as it takes on Richmond in A-10 quarter-final action on Friday. I like the Rams chances. Richmond comes off a narrow 64-59 win over Rhode Island yesterday. The Spiders have picked a bad time to go into a bit of a shooting slump. They've knocked down 23, 20, 25 and 18 field goals over their last four contests, going 2-2 SU and 0-4 ATS over that stretch. They had a tough enough time just getting shots off last night, attempting just 47 field goals in their victory over RI. Here, things won't get any easier against a VCU squad that has absolutely locked down the opposition defensively this season and particularly down the stretch. The Rams enter this contest having yielded 23 or fewer made field goals in eight of their last nine games. Over their final three regular season games they gave up only 21, 18 and 21 made field goals. Meanwhile, the VCU offense has been humming along, making good on 24+ field goals in nine straight games including 26+ in seven of those contests. That's not all that impressive on the face of it but when you consider that most of those games were played at a relatively slow pace (with FG attempts in the 50-55 range for the most part) you get a better sense of how efficient the Rams offense has been. Here, I'm expecting a slightly faster pace, noting that the Rams got off 55 and 61 FG attempts in two regular season meetings with the Spiders, knocking down 28 of of those attempts in both games. Richmond shot just 42-of-117 from the field in those two regular season matchups. Richmond only managed to stay close in their home meeting and that was thanks to a wide 21-7 disparity in terms of free throw attempts, something that's unlikely to happen here. Take VCU (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Quinnipiac v. St. Peter's -6.5 | Top | 52-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Year. My selection is on St. Peter's minus the points over Quinnipiac at 8:30 pm et on Friday. I really like the way this one sets up for St. Peter's as it takes on Quinnipiac in MAAC Tournament semi-final action on Friday. The Peacocks are as locked-in defensively as any team in the conference and perhaps the entire country right now (relatively speaking, of course). Going back to a February 4th matchup against the same Quinnipiac squad they'll face tonight, they've allowed 22 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 11 games. Over their last four contests they've yielded just 13, 17, 15 and 19 made field goals. All the while they've been absolutely frustrating opposing offenses by slowing the pace. While Quinnipiac has knocked down 26+ field goals in three of its last four games, that's had a lot to do with playing at a reasonably fast pace, something we're not likely to see in this particular matchup. Note that the Bobcats shot a miserable 42-of-121 in two regular season matchups between these two teams - both went St. Peter's way by at least nine points. On the flip side, Quinnipiac has done little to slow opposing offenses lately, allowing 28, 27, 28, 29, 23 and 26 made field goals over its last six games. St. Peter's - despite playing at a snail's pace - has made good on 20+ field goals in eight straight games and 25+ in six of those eight contests. While the Peacocks are by no means a perimeter-based team offensively, they did knock down 17 three-pointers in two regular season meetings with the Bobcats. That's not all that surprising considering Quinnipiac yields nine made threes per game this season. Take St. Peter's (10*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Wolves -7.5 v. Magic | 110-118 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. I'm not sure the T'Wolves are getting nearly the respect they deserve right now. They've reeled off six straight wins, incredibly scoring 124+ points in all six of those games. They've made good on 45+ field goals in five of those six contests, despite the majority of them being played at a reasonably slow pace. Meanwhile, Minnesota's defense continues to shine as well, holding four straight opponents to 87 or fewer field goal attempts with three of those four opponents knocking down 37 or less and it draws another favorable matchup here. Speaking of favorable matchups - the Magic have benefited from facing the Suns without Chris Paul and Devin Booker and the Pelicans without Brandon Ingram over their last two games. The T'Wolves aren't at full strength but they're getting healthier and again, it hasn't really mattered who they've trotted out on the floor lately, they've found success. Lost in Orlando's recent 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS surge is the fact that it continues to do little to slow opposing offenses down, yielding 90+ FG attempts in five straight and seven of its last eight games. It has been fortunate that the opposition simply hasn't taken advantage of its opportunities on most nights. I expect a different story to unfold here as a revenge-minded T'Wolves squad hangs another crooked number on the board in a convincing win. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
03-11-22 | Creighton v. Providence -3 | 85-58 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Creighton at 6:30 pm et on Friday. Providence narrowly escaped with a four-point win over Butler last night but I expect it to 'get right' and move on with a more convincing win over Creighton on Friday. The Friars are locked-in defensively right now, allowing just 18, 23 and 22 made field goals over their last three games. While Creighton obviously poses a challenge, I expect Providence to be up for it, noting that it held the Blue Jays to just 18 made field goals including only five from beyond the arc in a 72-51 win in the lone regular season matchup between the two teams. Offensively, we saw the Friars get bogged down against a Butler team that can be very frustrating to play against last night, knocking down only 20 field goals on 54 attempts but it was still enough to get into the 60's and secure the win. Here, I think the Friars will prefer the pace the Blue Jays play at, noting that Creighton has allowed opponents to get off 64+ field goal attempts in six of its last nine games. The Blue Jays have yielded 35, 33, 28, 27, 27 and 23 made field goals over their last six games. Creighton's offense has been rather uneven lately, hitting just 18, 27, 21 and 28 field goals over its last four contests. I'm just not sure it will get enough opportunities to keep within arm's reach here, noting that Providence allows just 24 made field goals and only six from beyond the arc per game away from home this season. Take Providence (8*). | |||||||
03-10-22 | South Florida +9.5 v. UCF | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
AAC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over UCF at 7 pm et on Thursday. We missed badly with South Florida in its most recent game as it dropped an ugly 75-47 decision at Temple to close out the regular season last Sunday. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the Bulls here, however, as I do feel they're well-positioned to give Central Florida all it can handle on Thursday. Lost in that blowout defeat against Temple was the fact that the Bulls did once again hold up alright defensively (given the circumstances - with their offense unable to hit a shot), allowing just 22 made field goals on 56 attempts. USF has now yielded only 20, 22, 16, 19, 24 and 22 made field goals over its last six games. When a team plays like that, it makes it tough on the opponent to cover a lofty pointspread, as we're dealing with here. Keep in mind, prior to Sunday's game, the Bulls had shown some signs of life offensively, knocking down 20+ field goals in nine straight games and hitting 25, 23 and 25 in their last there - all ATS victories. I do think the Bulls can frustrate an average UCF offense here. The Knights are used to getting up into the 60's in terms of field goal attempts. The last two times they were held to fewer than 60 attempts they eked out a three-point win at home against East Carolina (as a nine-point favorite) and lost by one point at Tulsa (as a one-point favorite). The Knights have regularly been allowing opponents to get loose offensively, allowing 23 or more made field goals in six of their last eight games (no fewer than 22 over that period) after a stretch in late January-early February that saw them hold consecutive opponents to 22, 21 and 18. USF took the first meeting in this series this season in blowout fashion at home before a revenge-minded Knights squad returned the favor on their home floor. In the Bulls 19-point road loss to UCF on February 3rd, they knocked down only 18 field goals including only 2-of-13 attempts from three-point range. Meanwhile, UCF poured in 14 threes. The fact that the margin was 'only' 19 points was actually encouraging heading into this one as far as I'm concerned, as the Bulls really can't play any worse than they did on that occasion. Take South Florida (10*). | |||||||
03-09-22 | Georgetown v. Seton Hall -10 | Top | 53-57 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Big East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Seton Hall minus the points over Georgetown at 9:30 pm et on Wednesday. It's been an absolutely disastrous season for Patrick Ewing's Georgetown Hoyas. They do, however, enter the Big East Tournament having gone 4-2 ATS over their last six games. That's little consolation, of course, and only serves to give us the opportunity to back Seton Hall at a discount here, noting that the Pirates closed as 13.5-point favorites against the Hoyas just last week. The Pirates only won that game by five points as they turned in a poor 4-of-20 shooting effort from beyond the arc. I certainly anticipate improvement in that regard here, noting that the Pirates average seven made threes per game away from home this season while Georgetown gives up an average of nine. While the Hoyas did enjoy some late season pointspread success, the fact is they check in having given up 30, 30, 28, 30, 24, 23, 30, 28 and 35 made field goals over their last nine games. In other words, they were consistently awful at the defensive end of the floor. That's to go along with an offense that last knocked down more than 27 field goals in a game way back on December 18th - before the start of Big East play. On the flip side, Seton Hall had to learn to run their offense without PG Bryce Aiken down the stretch and did so nicely, securing five consecutive wins (4-1 ATS) leading up to this tournament. The Pirates made good on 25, 29, 28 and 27 field goals in their last four regular season games and while that's steady performance, I look for them to show some improvement in this mouth-watering matchup. It's defensively where Seton Hall has really shone. Opponents have had a tough enough time getting shots off let alone hitting them, with the Pirates yielding just 59, 54, 50, 57 and 54 field goal attempts during their five-game winning streak. The high-water mark was 59 and in that contest Seton Hall allowed DePaul to make only 19 of those attempts. Take Seton Hall (10*). | |||||||
03-09-22 | Magic v. Pelicans -8.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Pelicans seemingly 'punted' last night's game in Memphis, sitting Brandon Ingram in what turned out to be a blowout loss (we won with the 'over'). Here, I expect a much better performance from New Orleans as it returns home to host Orlando, which is also in a back-to-back spot off a three-point home loss against the Suns last night. Note that the Magic's offense has gone back in the tank, knocking down just 36, 37 and 35 field goals over its last three games despite getting off 95, 86 and 92 field goal attempts in those three contests. Meanwhile, Orlando has shown no ability to control its opponents tempo, yielding 90+ field goal attempts in six of its last seven games. Even without Ingram last night in Memphis, New Orleans stayed reasonably hot offensively, knocking down 41-of-88 FG attempts. Over their last five games, the Pelicans have made good on 47, 52, 50, 48 and 41 field goals. With the Magic projected to allow them to get off 90+ attempts tonight, there's plenty of runway for the improved Pelicans offense to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. On the flip side, New Orleans had been doing a nice job of limiting its opponents scoring opportunities up until last night, yielding fewer than 90 FG attempts in six straight games. The Magic have had a tough enough time reaching 100 points when being afforded 90+ attempts. If they can't get close to that many opportunities on Wednesday, they should be in for a long night, noting also that while New Orleans allows 109.5 points per game overall this season, that average drops to 104.0 ppg when coming off two or more consecutive losses, as is the case here. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
03-09-22 | Hartford v. Maryland-Baltimore County -3.5 | Top | 60-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
America East Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Maryland-Baltimore County minus the points over Hartford at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Beating a team three times in one season is no simply task but I expect Maryland-Baltimore County to accomplish that feat and book its spot in the America East Championship Game with a convincing victory over Hartford on Wednesday. Both regular season meetings were relatively close but the Retrievers ultimately prevailed by four and seven-point margins. Hartford actually got off 61 and 65 field goal attempts in those two contests while UMBC attempted just 52 and 50 field goals yet the Hawks still fell short on both occasions. Given Hartford's current form, having knocked down just 21, 27 and 16 field goals in its last three games, I'm not convinced it will be able to stay within arm's reach this time around. Note that UMBC will give up plenty of opportunities, yielding 60+ FG attempts in six straight games entering this matchup. But the Hawks aren't really adept at pushing the pace, shooting just 25-of-55 on the road this season, and have attempted fewer than 50 field goals in three of their last six games. I don't think this is going to be a comfortable environment for Hartford on Wednesday. UMBC checks in having made good on 33, 23, 25, 29, 28 and 29 field goals over its last six contests, scoring 90+ points in four of those games. In other words, the Retrievers have been very consistent in what they do on offense. While they do allow opponents to get out and run, they've only given up an average of 27 made field goals per game (on an average of 61 attempts per contest) here at home this season. As an added bonus, the Retrievers check in as one of the best free throw shooting teams in the country, knocking down just shy of 80% of their attempts. I don't need to tell you how much that matters at this time of year especially. Take Maryland-Baltimore County (10*). | |||||||
03-08-22 | Clippers v. Warriors -6.5 | 97-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. The Warriors have somewhat quietly dropped five straight and nine of their last 11 games overall, including a 131-124 loss in Denver last night. Of course that loss on Monday was to be expected as they rested Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins. Here, I look for a big response in the Warriors first game back home following a four-game road trip. They dropped their last game on this floor, blowing a big lead against the Mavericks, who are playing some of the best basketball of any team in the NBA right now. The Clippers are not in that same vein, coming off a 116-93 drubbing at home against the Knicks on Sunday. They've allowed their last two opponents - two struggling teams at that in the Lakers and Knicks - to knock down 41 and 42 field goals despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They'll without question have their hands full against a revenge-minded Warriors squad that even without a number of key contributors still made good on 45-of-88 FG attempts and poured in 124 points in Denver last night. While Golden State has been giving up plenty of points during its current skid, there are positives to take away as it has held all six opponents to fewer than 90 FG attempts since the All-Star break. The opposition isn't going to continue to knock down its shots at such a clip as we've seen, noting that Golden State has allowed an average of 37-for-87 (42.2%) shooting at home this season. Take Golden State (9*). | |||||||
03-08-22 | Marshall -3.5 v. Florida International | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marshall minus the points over Florida International at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. Florida International picked the wrong time to go into a shooting slump, entering the C-USA Tournament on the heels of four consecutive losses, going 1-3 ATS over that stretch. Because of their late season woes, the Panthers draw a very capable, revenge-minded Marshall squad in their tournament opener on Tuesday. Marshall also enters the tourney on a losing skid, having dropped three in a row. I like the Thundering Herd's offense in this particular matchup, noting that FIU has allowed 31, 25 and 27 made field goals over its last three games, despite allowing 57 or fewer field goal attempts in each of those contests. Marshall will undoubtedly push the pace here (it averages 64 field goal attempts per game away from home this season) and if it is successful in doing so, I'm confident it can hang a crooked number on the scoreboard against a vulnerable Panthers defense. FIU has made good on just 23, 22, 18 and 25 field goals over its last four contests. It shot well in both meetings against Marshall during the regular season, a big reason it was able to win both games. Keep in mind, those two contests could have gone either way with the Panthers prevailing by just four and one-point margins. There was really nothing special about either performance from FIU. Marshall is a favored for a reason here as it looks to finally put one over on FIU in the most important matchup of its season. Take Marshall (8*). | |||||||
03-08-22 | Nets -4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 132-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Charlotte at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. I see this as a smash spot for the Nets on the heels of four straight losses including Sunday's 126-120 loss in a nationally-televised matinee affair in Boston. Kevin Durant is still saying the right things (he of course recently returned from injury) and I don't think the Nets are hitting the panic button by any means, even as they continue to fall in the Eastern Conference standings. With a tough matchup with the 76ers on deck in Philadelphia, getting a win here is of critical importance. Note that the Nets have knocked down 42 and 45 field goals in their last two road games, despite getting off fewer than 90 field goal attempts in each of those contests. Also on a positive note, the Nets have held their last two opponents to just 77 and 83 FG attempts. The Heat and Celtics simply shot the lights out in those two contests. I'm not anticipating the same type of offensive performance from Charlotte here. The Hornets are off consecutive wins but they've been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks, particularly at the defensive end of the floor. Note that they've allowed seven of their last nine opponents to get off 90+ FG attempts and if that happens tonight, as it likely will, the Nets offense should be able to hang a crooked number on the scoreboard. While laying almost a handful of points on the road is certainly a concern, the Nets have managed to go a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last seven victories with five of those seven wins coming away from home (not surprisingly as Kyrie Irving is only available to the team for road games not played in New York). Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
03-08-22 | Boston College -1.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 66-46 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
ACC Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Boston College minus the points over Pittsburgh at 2 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this ACC Tournament opener sets up for Boston College. The Eagles do limp into the tourney off three consecutive SU and ATS losses but none of those defeats were for lack of trying. The Eagles actually missed the cover by just a bucket last time out at Georgia Tech, putting forth a valiant effort in an 82-78 loss as a three-point underdog. I like the consistency Boston College has shown offensively down the stretch, knocking down 26 or more field goals in four of its last five games, despite getting off fewer than 60 field goal attempts in all five of those contests. While the Eagles defense did lag in their final two games allowing 31 and 30 made field goals, they did continue to do a good job of controlling tempo, yielding no more than 56 field goal attempts in any of their last five games (in that game where they gave up 56, Florida State knocked down only 19 of them). Pitt has dropped each of its last four games both SU and ATS. It reached a high-water mark of only 25 made field goals over that stretch. Away from its home floor this season, the Panthers averaged a woeful 20 made field goals per game, having a tough enough time just getting shots off, attempting just 50 field goals per contest in 'away' games. While Boston College at least showed some signs of life defensively in the final few weeks of the season, Pitt got torched for 26, 32, 32 and 27 made field goals over its final four games. The 27 allowed against Notre Dame in its regular season finale came on just 48 attempts. In fact, the Panthers last three opponents all shot better than 55% from the field. While Pitt did manage to split the regular season series against Boston College that was only thanks to getting to the free throw line 28 times in its home matchup (a game the Panthers won by just two points, failing to cover as three-point favorites). BC took the return match in Chestnut Hill by 13 points as a 3.5-point favorite on January 30th. Take Boston College (10*). | |||||||
03-07-22 | Northern Kentucky -1.5 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | Top | 57-43 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Horizon League Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Kentucky minus the points over Purdue-Fort Wayne at 9:30 pm et on Monday. | |||||||
03-07-22 | Lakers v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
NBA Game of the Week. My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Los Angeles at 8:30 pm et on Monday. The Spurs enter Monday's game riding a four-game losing streak. They certainly haven't quit on the season though. That's evident by the fact that they've poured in 100+ points in nine straight games. The Spurs continue to apply a ton of pressure on opposing defenses, getting off 90+ field goal attempts in 10 consecutive contests. While they've continued to give up plenty of points as well, we have seen some signs of a potential turnaround, noting that they've held their last four opponents to 83, 89, 84 and 91 FG attempts. The Lakers are in a fairly obvious letdown spot here after a big upset win over the Warriors at home on Saturday. Consistency has certainly not been a part of the Lakers vocabulary this season and I expect that to hold true here. Note that Los Angeles has yielded 92+ FG attempts in three of its last four games, giving up 123, 109, 132 and 116 points over that stretch. Offensively, we've seen the Lakers manage to get off fewer than 90 FG attempts in four straight games, fortunate to knock down 40+ in each of their last two contests. There's not a lot of margin for error when it comes to the Lakers, especially with Anthony Davis remaining sidelined. Here, we'll note that the Lakers are just 13-28 ATS when coming off a home win over the last two seasons and 9-18 ATS off a victory of any kind this season. The Spurs, meanwhile, are 38-24 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
03-06-22 | Tulane +9.5 v. SMU | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 6 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulane plus the points over SMU at 3 pm et on Sunday. SMU won by nine points in the first meeting between these two teams this season. Tulane certainly had its opportunities in that game as it got off a whopping 65 field goal attempts (compared to SMU's 52) but simply couldn't knock anything down, making good on just 24 of those 65 attempts, including only 7-of-19 from beyond the arc in the home defeat. Note that SMU shot the lights out from three-point range in that game, knocking down 15 threes and also made good on five more free throw attempts than Tulane, yet still only won by nine. You could argue that the Green Wave enter this rematch in better form offensively. Since February 5th, they've poured in 30, 20, 29, 29, 23, 18 and 28 made field goals. Even in the game where they only hit 18 they still only lost by five points at Temple. SMU continues to struggle to contain opposing offenses, allowing 62 or more field goal attempts in five of its last six games. Not only that but the Mustangs offense has sagged, making good on just 39-of-107 FG attempts over their last two games. While SMU will be taking a step down in class here, I expect Tulane to keep things interesting. Take Tulane (8*). | |||||||
03-06-22 | South Florida +8.5 v. Temple | Top | 47-75 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
American Athletic Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on South Florida plus the points over Temple at 2 pm et on Sunday. South Florida enters Sunday's game against Temple on the heels of three consecutive ATS wins. While the Bulls have endured a tough season on the whole, they have undoubtedly been playing some of their best basketball down the stretch. Note that they've done a tremendous job defensively, limiting their last five opponents to 20, 22, 16, 19 and 24 made field goals. Meanwhile, Temple has sagged in that department lately, allowing at least 23 made field goals in five of its last six contests. The Owls offense had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down in their most recent game, falling by an 84-46 score at Houston. South Florida isn't Houston, but the fact is the Owls have been held to 22 or fewer made field goals in four of their last five games. Keep in mind, the first time these two teams met this season South Florida prevailed by a 52-49 score, limiting Temple to just 18-of-49 from the field. There's actually plenty of room for improvement from the USF offense here after it knocked down only 20-of-55 FG attempts in that victory. The Bulls enter this game on a streak of nine straight games hitting at least 20 field goals. That's no big accomplishment for most teams, but it's certainly more than can be said for Temple which has been held to 18 or less field goals twice in its last seven contests. Here, we'll note that Temple checks in 0-6 ATS when coming off a road loss in which it scored 60 points or less over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 10.0 points in that situation. Take South Florida (10*). | |||||||
03-02-22 | Duquesne v. George Washington -7.5 | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on George Washington minus the points over Duquesne at 7 pm et on Wednesday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a team struggling as badly as Duquense right now. The Dukes haven't won a game since January 8th and check into Wednesday's clash with George Washington having made a grand total of 79 field goals over their last four games, scoring 55 points or less in all four of those contests. On the flip side, they're not really offering up any defensive resistance, having allowed 29, 31, 29 and 27 made field goals over that stretch, despite none of those games being played at all that quick of a pace (those four opponents topped out at 59 field goal attempts). George Washington got bogged down by as superior George Mason squad on the road last time out but has been playing well in the longer-term picture, having gone 9-2 ATS over its last 11 games. Credit the Colonials for limiting George Mason to just 21 made field goals in that 69-62 loss on Saturday. GWU has held three straight opponents to 56 field goal attempts or fewer. If it can do that here it should be able to win in a walk, noting that it yielded a whopping 76 FG attempts in its last matchup with Duquesne on February 16th but still gave up only 52 points in a 21-point win. Take George Washington (9*). | |||||||
03-01-22 | Clippers v. Rockets +7 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Rockets took the Clippers down to the wire two nights ago, ultimately losing that game by a single point. While Houston has now lost nine consecutive games, it continues to do a nice job of controlling the tempo of the opposition, limiting four of its last five opponents to sub-90 field goal attempts. The problem is, the opposition has been making the most of those attempts, with 12 of its last 13 opponents shooting better than 50% from the field. The good news is, the Rockets limited the Clippers to 44% shooting on Sunday, giving them something to build off of here. Note that the Clips are at the opposite end of the spectrum, having allowed four straight opponents to get off 90+ field goal attempts. I certainly expect to see Houston improve on its 38% shooting effort on Sunday. Los Angeles enters this game off of three consecutive wins but is just 5-14 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, as is the case here, and has actually been outscored by an average margin of 0.8 points in that spot. All told, the Clips are 14-18 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by 2.3 points per game. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
02-28-22 | UCLA -8 v. Washington | 77-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
My selection is on UCLA minus the points over Washington at 11 pm et on Monday. UCLA bounced back from a loss at Oregon to blast Oregon State by 39 points on Saturday. I look for the Bruins to build off of that incredible performance on Monday night in Washington. While UCLA isn't expected to have Johnny Juzang back for this game, that was certainly no obstacle on Saturday and I don't believe it will be tonight either. Washington is sagging defensively right now, having allowed 36, 30, 30, 27 and 24 made field goals, not to mention 60+ field goal attempts in nine straight games heading into Monday's contest. In stark contrast, UCLA has held each of its last seven opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts, allowing a grand total of only 96 made field goals over its last five games combined. Offensively, the Bruins are 'filling it up', knocking down 28 or more field goals in six of their last nine contests. This same matchup was no contest back on February 19th as the Bruins rolled to a 76-50 victory. Perhaps the Huskies can close the margin somewhat in this one, but not by enough to cover the very reasonable pointspread in my opinion. Take UCLA (6*). | |||||||
02-28-22 | New Mexico v. Fresno State -10 | Top | 68-71 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Fresno State minus the points over New Mexico at 10 pm et on Monday. Fresno State finally snapped a four-game losing streak with a 65-40 blowout victory over Air Force last time out. I look for the Bulldogs to build on that positive result with another lopsided victory on Monday against New Mexico. The Lobos snapped a three-game losing streak of their own with a narrow victory over Air Force last Thursday. That came at home. The Lobos are just 2-10 on the road this season and have had little success in slowing opposing offenses, allowing 28 made field goals per game on better than 48% shooting. That's not to mention the fact that they're sending opponents to the free throw line a whopping 23 times per contest on the road this season. On the flip side, Fresno State allows just 19-of-50 shooting here at home this season, including only six made three-pointers per game and 13 free throw attempts per contest. The Bulldogs have held each of their last four opponents to 52 or fewer field goal attempts so I don't envision New Mexico enjoying a ton of quality scoring opportunities in tonight's game. Fresno State took the first meeting between these two teams by five points back in late January. The Lobos had nine more field goal attempts than the Bulldogs in that game but I expect that script to flip in this one. Take Fresno State (10*). | |||||||
02-28-22 | Massachusetts v. Fordham -2 | Top | 73-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Game of the Month. My selection is on Fordham minus the points over UMass at 7 pm et on Monday. I really like the way this one sets up for Fordham as it looks to bounce back from an ugly performance at Davidson on Saturday. The Rams knocked down only 12-of-49 field goals in that contest, unable to build off consecutive home victories in their previous two games. I do expect a much stronger effort here as they host a reeling UMass squad on Monday. The Minutemen have dropped back-to-back games by 21 and 15-point margins. Opponents have absolutely been 'filling it up' against the UMass defense, pouring in 28+ made field goals in five of its last six games. On the flip side, Fordham has given up fewer than 20 made field goals in three of its last five games. Even in Saturday's blowout loss at Davidson, the Rams still gave up just 22 made field goals. They've held four of their last five opponents to sub-38% shooting from the field. That's nothing new. Fordham allows an average of just 23 made field goals, including only six from beyond the arc, and sends opponents to the free throw line only 16 times per contest here at home this season. That's all key as any success the Minutemen has had this season has generally been on the strength of its three-point (10 made per game) and free-throw shooting (20 trips to the line per contest). Take Fordham (10*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | South Dakota State v. UMKC +7.5 | Top | 86-75 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
Summit League Game of the Year. My selection is on Kansas City plus the points over South Dakota State at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the home underdog in this matchup between two red hot Summit League teams. South Dakota State has of course been the class of the conference all season, going undefeated to this point at 17-0. That includes a 32-point rout of Kansas City back on December 20th. Kansas City enters this game on a serious roll, however, having won eight consecutive games ATS. The Roos have done a tremendous job of locking down the opposition here at home, allowing just 21 made field goals per game on only 51 attempts. That includes just 5-of-19 shooting from beyond the arc. South Dakota State obviously has the offense to test those numbers but also finds itself in a tough spot, playing on just one day of rest following a wild 106-102 road win at Oral Roberts on Thursday. While the Jackrabbits are certainly capable of hanging a crooked number on the scoreboard, I like the fact that the Roos come in on a heater as well, having shot better than 51% from the field in five of their last eight games and averaging just shy of 80 points per game on 48% shooting at home this season. Kansas City's recent success hasn't come out of nowhere as it is actually 29-15 ATS in its last 44 games against Summit League opposition. Take Kansas City (10*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | San Francisco -13 v. San Diego | Top | 78-62 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
CBB Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on San Francisco minus the points over San Diego at 5 pm et on Saturday. After hanging tough through the early stages of conference play, San Diego has 'let go of the rope' so to speak, dropping five of its last six games SU (0-5-1 ATS). Opponents have absolutely abused the Toreros defense of late, knocking down 30+ field goals in four of those last six games. Things certainly won't get any easier against a San Francisco squad that will be looking to get back on track after a tough loss against mighty Gonzaga two nights ago. While the Dons have been a little uneven of late, that's had more to do with a couple of tough matchups with the aforementioned Zags and St. Mary's than anything else. They've still managed to win by 16+ points in three of their last five contests. I fully expect to see San Francisco clamp down on the San Diego offense here, noting that it allows just 23 made field goals including only five per game from three-point range on the road this season. While the Toreros could elect to play a little faster than usual, that will only afford to the Dons more scoring opportunities, noting that they've put up 100+ points twice in their last five games. When these two teams last met in January, San Francisco led by 14 points at halftime before easing off the gas in the second half. I don't expect that same sort of story to unfold here as they look to 'get right' off Thursday's lopsided defeat. Take San Francisco (10*). | |||||||
02-26-22 | Northern Illinois +17 v. Buffalo | Top | 60-70 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
MAC Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Northern Illinois plus the points over Buffalo at 2 pm et on Saturday. I love that we're catching a boatload of points in this quick rematch between these two MAC squads on Saturday afternoon in Buffalo. We won with the 'under' in this same matchup on Thursday as Northern Illinois at least held its own in a game that was reasonably competitive throughout (Buffalo eventually won by 11 points). The Huskies enter Saturday's game riding a five-game ATS winning streak but are still getting little respect from the oddsmakers. Buffalo, meanwhile, with its high-octane offense has become an overvalued commodity, dropping the cash in three consecutive games. While NIU is a poor 6-12 SU away from home this season, it has managed to post a solid 11-7 ATS mark. The Huskies have actually won outright as big underdogs in-conference at Kent State, Ball State and Akron with the latter two victories coming in the last two weeks. While the Huskies average only 22 made field goals per game including just six from beyond the arc on the road this season, they'll likely be afforded many more scoring opportunities than they're accustomed to here with Buffalo allowing opponents to get off 65 field goal attempts including 23 per game from three-point range here at home this season. Take Northern Illinois (10*). | |||||||
02-25-22 | Pelicans +7.5 v. Suns | Top | 117-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Phoenix at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Pelicans entered the break on the heels of consecutive losses against the Grizzlies and Mavericks. Things won't get any easier as they head to Phoenix to face the Suns on Friday. With that being said, I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with New Orleans in this spot. Note that Phoenix is fresh off a blowout win in Oklahoma City last night. As I expected, we saw the Suns really force the issue offensively in that one, looking to erase any doubt of how they will perform in the absence of Chris Paul. Here, I think things might get a little tougher playing the second of back-to-backs against a Pelicans squad that can hold its own offensively, boosted by the pre-trade deadline acquisition of C.J. McCollum. Note that Phoenix checks in 3-12 ATS when playing at home after winning four or five of its last six games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by just 5.5 points on average in that spot (compared to 9.3 points overall at home this season). Additionally, when coming off an ATS cover as a double-digit favorite over the last two seasons, the Suns have only managed to outscore their next opponent by an average margin of 1.2 points. The Pelicans check in having been outscored by just 0.4 points on average when coming off consecutive losses this season, as is the case here (20-game sample size). Also note that the Pelicans have outscored opponents by 0.3 points on average when playing with double-revenge over the last two seasons, also the case here (41-game sample size). Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
02-24-22 | Celtics v. Nets +8 | 129-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Thursday. While these two teams are at somewhat opposite ends of the spectrum given the current state of affairs for the Nets with Kevin Durant injured, Kyrie Irving unable to suit up in the state of New York and Ben Simmons still working his way back, I simply feel that the Celtics are being asked to lay too many points in this first game back out of the All-Star break. Here, we'll note that Boston is just 10-22 ATS when coming off four or five ATS wins over its last six games over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.8 points on average in that spot. That situation has come up 16 times previously this season, and the Celtics have been outscored by an average margin of 0.7 points. While the Nets are a woeful 4-12 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, they've actually managed to outscore opponents by 0.4 points on average in that situation. Note that they've outscored opponents by an average margin of 1.1 points on 40 previous occasions where they've come off four or five losses over their last six games over the last three seasons. Again, I simply feel the C's are laying a few too many in this spot. Take Brooklyn (8*). | |||||||
02-22-22 | Kansas State +12.5 v. Kansas | Top | 83-102 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
My selection is on Kansas State plus the points over Kansas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the underdog Wildcats as they head to Allen Fieldhouse to challenge the rival Jayhawks on Tuesday night. Kansas State enters this game off three consecutive ATS wins but dropped a three-point decision at Oklahoma on Saturday, just staying inside the pointspread in the SU defeat. The Wildcats have shot sub-40% from the field in their last two games - one game shy of their longest such streak of the season. Note that they've gone 4-1 SU and ATS when coming off consecutive games shooting below 40% from the field this season. They allowed Oklahoma to shoot 51.9% from the field in Saturday's narrow loss. That's happened only twice previously this season and in their next game they've allowed opponents to shoot just 40-for-109 (36.7%) from the field. I realize they're facing a difficult challenge here against an elite Kansas squad. However, it is worth noting that the Jayhawks come into this game having scored 70+ points in six consecutive games. Prior to that stretch, Kansas had scored 70+ points in just four of its first seven Big 12 contests this season. Obviously, it would be an uphill battle for the Jayhawks to cover a pointspread as large as the one we're looking at tonight without scoring 70+ points. It's also notable that the Jayhawks have held three straight opponents to fewer than 70 points. They did so just once previously in Big 12 play this season and in their next game posted a close 78-75 win over tonight's opponent, Kansas State. The difference in that game was a 30-18 (21-11 made) free throw disparity in favor of the Jayhawks. I do have confidence that Kansas State can narrow that gap in tonight's game, while also keeping the game's pace in check, much like it did in the first meeting this season, helping ultimately keep the final score inside the number. Here, we'll note that the Jayhawks are 0-6 ATS after giving up 65 points or less in consecutive games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by just 3.7 points on average in that spot. Take Kansas State (7*). | |||||||
02-20-22 | Providence -3 v. Butler | 71-70 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence minus the points over Butler at 1 pm et on Sunday. The Big East picture has certainly crystallized with teams like Providence, Villanova and UConn at the top and Butler, DePaul and Georgetown pulling up the rear. With Providence coming off a tough home loss to Villanova, I look for the Friars to take advantage of this bounce-back matchup against Butler on Sunday. The Friars already took the first meeting between these two teams this season but failed to cover the spread. Here, we're working with a more manageable spread, despite the fact that Butler has been an awful bet at home this season, going 4-9 ATS. While the Bulldogs are capable of staging an upset here at home, I'm confident the Friars will have their guard up off the loss to 'Nova - just their third defeat of the season. Take Providence (8*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Stetson v. Liberty -15 | 82-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My selection is on Liberty minus the points over Stetson at 7 pm et on Saturday. We've had some success playing Stetson 'overs' this season but here I won't hesitate to switch gears and play the side, fading the road Hatters as they head to Liberty Arena to face the Flames. Liberty already defeated Stetson by 16 points on the road this season. It shot well in that contest but certainly didn't do anything special. In fact, Stetson ended up getting off three more three-point attempts and also got to the line 11 more times than Liberty in that contest. I'm confident we'll see the flip script in those two departments here. Liberty is coming off consecutive outright road losses as a favorite, dropping close games against Jacksonville and North Florida. It will be more than happy to take its frustrations out on Stetson here, noting that Liberty is 10-1 on its home floor this season, outscoring opponents by nearly 27 points per contest. Take Liberty (8*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | SIU-Edwardsville v. Belmont -21.5 | 62-73 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Belmont minus the points over SIU-Edwardsville at 5 pm et on Saturday. Belmont enters this game on the heels of nine straight wins but has actually gone 0-5 ATS over its last five contests. Look for that latter streak to come to an end here. We certainly saw signs of the Bruins breaking out of their recent malaise last time out as they crushed Eastern Illinois by 24 points - still failing to cover as a monster 27-point favorite. The Bruins broke loose for 60+ field goal attempts in that game - knocking down an impressive 59% of them and now get to stay home to host an Edwardsville squad that has done nothing to slow opposing offenses away from home (or anywhere for that matter) this season. The last couple of meetings between these two teams have been a little closer than expected but keep in mind, we're just two and three meetings removed from Belmont wins by 32 and 52-point margins. Take Belmont (7*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Ball State v. Bowling Green -3 | Top | 91-82 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Bowling Green minus the points over Ball State at 5 pm et on Saturday. We faded Bowling Green last Saturday and were rewarded with a lopsided win by Miami-Ohio. That was on the road, where the Falcons have struggled all season. They do at least own a winning record at 8-5 here at home. They'll be looking to avenge a tough 81-80 loss on the road against Ball State back on New Year's Day. The two teams were virtual mirror images of one another on that day, with the exception being Ball State was able to knock down a few more of its shots. Here, we'll note that the Cardinals have struggled on the road this season, going 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS. While Ball State was able to keep pace with Bowling Green at home, we should see a different story unfold here. Note that the Falcons average a blistering 87.2 points per game on their home floor. Ball State, meanwhile, has allowed opponents to shoot just shy of 47% from the field on the road, giving up north of 82 points per contest. With Ball State checking in a woeful 3-13 ATS when listed as a road underdog or 'pk going back to last season, we'll confidently back the hometown Falcons here. Take Bowling Green (10*). | |||||||
02-19-22 | Houston Baptist v. Nicholls State -12 | 70-84 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Nicholls State minus the points over Houston Baptist at 4 pm et on Saturday. Houston Baptist enters this game off three consecutive ATS wins while Nicholls State has dropped the cash in four consecutive games. With that being said, Nicholls State continues to win, having recorded six straight victories. Houston Baptist has done a nice job masquerading as a quality offensive team lately, putting up 80+ points in three of its last four games but I expect that scoring run to grind to a halt here. Note that Nicholls State has held opponents to just under 67 points per game on sub-40% shooting here at home this season. It has done that while also playing at a blistering pace offensively, getting off an incredible 72 field goal attempts per game on its home floor, knocking down better than 50% of them. The first meeting between these two teams this season went Nicholls State's way by only 12 points, but the margin would have been much larger had it been able to knock down more than two of its 16 three-point attempts. Take Nicholls State (8*). | |||||||
02-16-22 | Boise State v. Air Force +10.5 | 85-59 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Air Force plus the points over Boise State at 10 pm et on Wednesday. When these two teams met back on January 18th in Boise, the Broncos prevailed by just six points. That was despite a wide 32-14 disparity in terms of free throw attempts in favor of the hometown Broncos, not to mention the fact that Air Force turned the basketball over a whopping 20 times. I would anticipate the Falcons improving in both of those areas with the scene shifting to Colorado Springs for Wednesday's rematch. Note that while the Falcons come into this game on the heels of five straight losses, Boise State has a streak of futility of its own having gone 0-4 ATS over its last four contests. Off a home loss to Colorado State on Sunday, the Broncos will simply be looking to pick up a 'W' and move on against a stingy opponent in Air Force on Wednesday. Winning by margin is of little consequence but we're being given a generous helping of points with the home underdog. Note that Air Force has done a tremendous job of slowing the pace down to a crawl and frustrating the opposition here at home this season, allowing an average of just 50 field goal attempts per contest. Also note that the Falcons are a solid 7-1 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent this season, outscored by an average margin of just 2.2 points in that situation. Take Air Force (8*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Villanova v. Providence +4.5 | 89-84 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Providence plus the points over Villanova at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Providence almost got caught looking past DePaul on its home floor on Saturday but ultimately prevailed by three points in overtime, never sniffing out an ATS cover in that contest. I think in some ways as a result of that sleepy performance, we know get to grab almost a handful of points with the Friars at home - where they're 14-0 this season - against Villanova. The Wildcats were involved in a tough game of their own on Saturday, outlasting Seton Hall by six points. Providence always seems to give Villanova trouble on this floor - even weaker Friars squads of years' past. Last season, Providence won by two points as a four-point home underdog. In 2019 and 2020 they lost by six and four points, respectively. In 2018, the Friars upset the Wildcats as a 9.5-point underdog. You get the picture. It's certainly worth noting that five of Villanova's six losses this season have come on the road, where they've outscored opponents by an average margin of only 3.5 points per game. Providence checks in a perfect 7-0 ATS in an underdog role this season, actually managing to outscore opponents by 6.0 points on average in that situation. With super sixth-man Jared Bynum taking his game to another level over the last two games, leading the Friars in scoring on both contests, I like Providence's chances of keeping it rolling ahead of a return date against 'Nova on March 1st. Take Providence (6*). | |||||||
02-15-22 | Celtics v. 76ers +1.5 | Top | 135-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Boston at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Celtics are absolutely rolling right now, winners of eight games in a row, going 5-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Keep in mind, they were favored by at least six points in all eight of those contests. They'll face their toughest challenge in weeks on Tuesday night, as they go up against a rested 76ers squad that hasn't taken the floor since posting an impressive double-digit win over the Cavs on Saturday night. It seems as though the Philadelphia bandwagon was cleared thanks to last week's home loss to the Suns. That's not to mention the fact that James Harden remains sidelined after coming over in last week's blockbuster trade with the Nets. Note that Boston is just 13-15 SU on the road this season, including a 111-99 loss here in Philadelphia back in mid-January - a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. The 76ers are a modest 16-12 at home this season but have outscored opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points per game. Here, we'll note that Boston is a woeful 5-16 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.9 points in that spot. Philadelphia on the other hand has gone a terrific 40-26 ATS when playing consecutive home games over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 6.7 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | Clippers +7 v. Mavs | Top | 99-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Week. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Saturday. We settled for a push with the Clippers in the front half of this two-game set in Dallas. We were somewhat fortunate as the Clips trailed that game virtually the entire way and Luka Doncic went off for 51 points. Here, I'm confident in Los Angeles' ability to make the necessary adjustments and close the gap in a quick rematch on Saturday. Despite Doncic's incredible performance, there actually wasn't all that much separating the two teams on Thursday. Dallas knocked down four more threes (on 16 more attempts) and also made good on five more free throws. Note that the Clippers are a terrific 9-1 ATS when playing on the road after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 13.4 points on average in that situation. In 35 previous occasions where Dallas played at home off an ATS win over the last two seasons, it has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 1.5 points. After allowing 105 points or less in their previous contest this season, the Mavs have outscored opponents by just 1.2 points on average (30-game sample size). Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | Bowling Green v. Miami-OH -1 | 78-94 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami-Ohio minus the points over Bowling Green at 3:30 pm et on Saturday. I expect Miami-Ohio to have opportunities abound in this one as it looks to post a second straight win after snapping a five-game losing streak with a win over Western Michigan last time out. Bowling Green has managed to go just 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS on the road this season as it has had no luck at all trying to contain opposing offenses. The Falcons check in allowing 62 field goal attempts per game, 28 of those from three-point range and 22 free throw attempts on the road this season. Not surprisingly it all adds up to giving up just shy of 81 points per game away from home. While the Redhawks have struggled as a whole lately, and certainly from an ATS perspective, they do continue to do a good job of buttoning up opposing offenses here at home. By contrast, they allow just 57 field goal attempts and give up only 15 trips to the free throw line here on their home floor. Bowling Green took the first meeting between these two teams by an 87-83 score at home in early January. The only real difference in that one was that the Falcons had a 23-9 disparity in terms of free throw attempts, knocking down 12 more of those freebies than the Redhawks. Miami-Ohio got off a whopping 44 three-point attempts in that game, making good on 15 of them. Look for the Redhawks to get their revenge at home on Saturday. Take Miami-Ohio (9*). | |||||||
02-12-22 | Sacred Heart -1.5 v. Fairleigh Dickinson | Top | 75-82 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
CBB NEC Game of the Year. My selection is on Sacred Heart minus the points over Fairleigh Dickinson at 1 pm et on Saturday. You'd be hard-pressed to find a worse Division I college basketball team than Fairleigh Dickinson this season. KenPom ranks them ahead of only eight other teams in the country and I think even that is a fairly forgiving ranking. The Knights lone victory since the start of January came against another awful NEC squad in Central Connecticut State. Sacred Heart certainly doesn't bring much 'wow factor' either but it has at least been playing competitive basketball in-conference. Just one week ago it pulled out a hard-fought overtime win on the road against St. Francis-Brooklyn and just two nights prior to that took LUI-Brooklyn down to the wire in a 79-75 road loss. These two teams just met back on January 15th with Sacred Heart prevailing by a score of 77-71. FDU lost that game by six points despite getting off a whopping 70 field goal attempts compared to Sacred Heart's 56. The Knights also won the turnover battle by a 14-11 margin in that game. I don't expect them to repeat either of those feats on Saturday as I look for Sacred Heart to dictate the tempo and ultimately pick up a win to gain some ground in the NEC (it enters Saturday's action just a half-game out of fifth place while FDU sits in last place). Take Sacred Heart (10*). | |||||||
02-10-22 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 107-131 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Year. My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Bucks are playing as well as any team in the league right now, winners of four straight games both SU and ATS, scoring 130+ points in each of their last three contests. Ordinarily, I might look to fade a team on such a run but not in this spot as Milwaukee wraps up its four-game road trip with a game it will have no difficulty getting up for against the team in defeated in last year's NBA Finals - the Phoenix Suns. The Suns are playing well. They've lost just one game going all the way back to January 11th. With that being said, they're just an even 5-5 ATS over their last 10 games. The Bucks might be without Grayson Allen for this game after he suffered a hip injury but the Suns continue to play on without underrated contributor Cam Payne as well. While the Bucks might be a little road weary at the end of this trip, the Suns will be playing their fifth game in the last eight nights, in five different cities. Phoenix is obviously one of the best teams in the league - at times THE best team in the league this season. However, the Bucks found a way to make the Suns look very ordinary in reeling off four straight wins (after falling behind 2-0) in last year's Finals. Phoenix has outscored its opponents by an average margin of 7.6 points this season. However, it has only outscored opponents by 4.4 points on average when coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons. The Bucks have been an excellent 'positive momentum' play having averaged 120.2 points per game, outscoring opponents by an average of 9.9 points when coming off consecutive double-digit victories over the last three seasons (48-game sample size). Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
02-10-22 | Clippers +7 v. Mavs | 105-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Phoenix at 8:40 pm et on Thursday. The Clippers limp into this game off back-to-back losses but there's no need to push the panic button as those two losses came against two of the league's best teams in the Bucks and Grizzlies. L.A. has now dropped the cash in four straight games but I believe that's affording us a very generous helping of points with it as it heads to Dallas to face the surging Mavs on Thursday. Dallas has won three games in a row, both SU and ATS, including a 30-point rout of the Pistons last time out. Here, we'll note that Jason Kidd has not fared well in this situation over the course of his head coaching career, with his teams going 16-33 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive wins, outscored by an average of 4.4 points in that situation. The Clippers meanwhile, are 36-21 ATS when playing on the road off an ATS loss over the last three seasons. Better still, they're 9-1 ATS when playing on the road after losing four of their last five games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average of 15.5 points in that situation. This will be the 13th meeting between these two teams going back to the start of last season. I believe the Mavs are simply laying too many points in this spot. Take Los Angeles (9*). | |||||||
02-10-22 | Hofstra v. Drexel -1 | Top | 83-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
CAA Game of the Year. My selection is on Drexel minus the points over Hofstra at 7 pm et on Thursday. These two teams have been polar opposites in the luck department this season and as a result Hofstra checks in with the better overall record and a one-game edge in the Colonial Athletic Association. In fact, Hofstra ranks 106th in the country in luck rating - a metric developed by KenPom - while Drexel checks in 291st. With that being said, both teams come in off consecutive wins. I believe Drexel is better positioned to keep it going on Thursday, however, as it looks to avenge an earlier three-point loss at Hofstra back on January 17th. Note that the Dragons are 13-5 ATS as a favorite over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 8.7 points on average. Better still, they're 10-2 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring foes by an average margin of 4.6 points in that spot. Note that Hofstra gets to the free throw line five fewer times per game on the road than Drexel does at home, while also averaging one less made three-pointer per contest on two more attempts. Off consecutive emotional wins at home (one came in overtime against James Madison and the other by two points against UNC-Wilmington), I look for Hofstra to come up short on the road on Thursday. Take Drexel (10*). | |||||||
02-09-22 | Warriors v. Jazz -3 | Top | 85-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Non-Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Jazz have reeled off three straight wins on their current homestand but can't afford to let their guard down after they had lost 11 of their previous 13 contests. The Warriors, on the other hand, can afford to 'manage' things on a game-to-game basis and will once again sit Klay Thompson for this front half of a back-to-back set at the Jazz and back home against the Knicks. Remember, one week ago tonight the Warriors rested Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, essentially 'punting' the game against the Spurs but San Antonio was extremely forgiving, coughing up a 15-point fourth quarter lead in a four-point loss. I don't expect the Jazz to be nearly as forgiving on Wednesday. Utah has been one of the most streaky teams in the league from an ATS perspective in recent years and checks into this one having gone 18-7 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 13.3 points on average in that spot. The Jazz have undoubtedly had this game circled on their calendar since dropping a tough 94-92 decision in San Francisco back on January 23rd. Utah could have certainly used Donovan Mitchell in that game. In two games since returning from a concussion, Mitchell has contributed 59 points, 10 rebounds and 12 assists in just 56 minutes of action. The Warriors have actually taken both previous meetings in this series this season and four in a row going back to last season. That sort of run of success in this series hasn't been common, however. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time Golden State won five straight matchups against the Jazz, and that included a four-game series sweep in the playoffs. Look for Utah to get back at the Warriors on Wednesday. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Pacers +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 85-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
NBA Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Cleveland at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. | |||||||
02-06-22 | Washington v. Stanford -4.5 | 69-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Washington at 4 pm et on Sunday. I like the way this spot sets up for Stanford as it comes off a disappointing home loss against Washington State and hosts a Washington squad fresh off three straight wins, both SU and ATS, including an upset win at Cal last time out. Note that the Huskies have gone winless in two previous tries coming off a road win this season, failing to cover the spread in both of those games as well. Meanwhile, Stanford is a solid 88-63 ATS after losing four or five of its last six games ATS, as is the case here. The Cardinal improve on their terrific 9-2 home record here. Take Stanford (8*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Akron v. Miami-OH +3.5 | 71-59 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 43 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami-Ohio plus the points over Akron at 4 pm et on Sunday. It's certainly been a rough ride for the Redhawks of Miami-Ohio lately as they've lost four games in a row SU and nine straight ATS entering Sunday's rematch with Akron (the Zips took Friday's meeting by a 66-55 score at home). Note that Akron has closed as a road favorite just once previously this season, winning that game by just four points as a 12.5-point favorite against Central Michigan. Despite their recent struggles, the Redhawks are still a winning team at home this season at 6-5 SU. The Zips, meanwhile, are 4-5 SU and ATS on the road. The Redhawks actually got off seven more field goal attempts than the Zips on Friday but Akron ultimately held a 17-7 edge in terms of free throw attempts and shot 50% from the field in the win. Take Miami-Ohio (7*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Pistons +12 v. Wolves | 105-118 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Minnesota at 3:40 pm et on Sunday. These two teams are clearly heading in opposite directions right now with the Pistons losers of three games in a row (1-2 ATS) and the T'Wolves having won three straight (3-0 ATS) including a 128-117 win in Detroit on Thursday. Keep in mind, that meeting was closer than the final score indicated as the Pistons were actually within five points with less than a minute remaining. Here, we'll note that Detroit checks in a highly-profitable 26-13 ATS off three or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons while Minnesota is 11-23 ATS at home against non-conference opponents over the last three seasons and 25-40 ATS in their last 65 games following a win. Take Detroit (9*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Wisc-Milwaukee +10.5 v. Cleveland State | 71-84 | Loss | -111 | 3 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Milwaukee plus the points over Cleveland State at 3 pm et on Sunday. Milwaukee enters this game on the heels of four straight losses, both SU and ATS, with all four of those setbacks coming by double-digit margins. Keep in mind, their previous season-high in terms of consecutive double-digit losses was three. The schedule obviously plays a role and here Milwaukee plays its fourth consecutive Horizon League road game. Needless to say, the Panthers will have no trouble getting up for Cleveland State - one of the best teams in the conference. Here, we'll note that the Vikings are a miserable 1-7 ATS after winning two of their last three games ATS this season, as is the case here. They're also 4-14 ATS when coming off a game in which they shot 55% or better from the field, also the situation here after their blowout win over Wisconsin-Green Bay on Friday. Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee (8*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Marist +4.5 v. St. Peter's | 50-66 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Marist plus the points over St. Peter's at 2 pm et on Sunday. The Marist Red Foxes check into this game off four consecutive losses, both SU and ATS but I'm confident we'll see them give St. Peter's a serious run on Sunday afternoon. The Peacocks easily dispatched Quinnipiac here at home on Friday - their fourth straight ATS victory. Here, they'll have their hands full with a Marist squad that has gone 15-6 ATS when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons while St. Peter's owns a woeful 34-53 ATS mark when playing consecutive home games. While Marist dropped the first meeting between these two teams in late January, it hasn't lost consecutive matchups with St. Peter's since 2019-20. Take Marist (9*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Green Bay +10 v. IUPU Ft Wayne | 55-71 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wisconsin-Green Bay plus the points over IUPU-Fort Wayne at 2 pm et on Sunday. Wisconsin-Green Bay enters this game off four consecutive losses - all on the road - but I expect it to hang tough in Fort Wayne on Sunday afternoon, noting that it has gone a perfect 6-0 ATS when coming off four or more consecutive losses over the last two seasons. Green Bay 'only' lost by 16 points against a superior Cleveland State squad on the road last time out, despite allowing the Vikings to shoot a blistering 63.5% from the field. It won't be difficult for Green Bay to get up for this one but I think it will be for Fort Wayne, which checks in off a double-digit home win over Wisconsin-Milwaukee on Friday. Take Wisconsin-Green Bay (8*). | |||||||
02-06-22 | Providence v. Georgetown +7 | Top | 71-52 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgetown plus the points over Providence at 12 noon et on Sunday. Providence has now won six consecutive games, including an upset victory at St. John's last time out. Since defeating Georgetown by eight points (but failing to cover) on January 20th, the Friars have been involved in four straight highly-contested games against Butler, Xavier, Marquette and St. John's. It's going to be very difficult for Ed Cooley's team to avoid a letdown here. Meanwhile, the Hoyas haven't won a game since December 15th against Howard. They do check in 3-2-1 ATS over their last six games though and catch the Friars laying points on the road for the first time this season. Take Georgetown (10*). | |||||||
02-05-22 | Western Illinois v. UMKC | 82-91 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show | |
My selection is on UMKC minus the points over Western Illinois at 8 pm et on Saturday. We won with the 'over' in Western Illinois' most recent game - a stunning upset win on the road against Oral Roberts on Thursday. Here, I suspect it will be in tough trying to replicate that performance against a surging UMKC squad on Saturday night. Western Illinois has had no ability whatsoever to control the tempo, or at least keep it in check on the road this season. Nor has it had any interest in doing so. That spells trouble here, though, as it faces a UMKC team that is just as comfortable playing an up-tempo game at home, where it averages just shy of 79 points per game on north of 47% shooting. UMKC enters this game having won five of its last six overall, going 4-2 ATS over that stretch. That includes an eight-point victory at Western Illinois earlier this week. The Roos won that game despite a 10-point disparity in favor of the Leathernecks at the free throw line. While Western Illinois would love go get some quick revenge here, it will be in tough as the Roos have done a tremendous job of controlling the tempo of opponents here at home, allowing only 49 field goal attempts per contest. Add in the letdown factor with the Leathernecks having shot well above their season average in that most recent game against Oral Roberts and I like the value being offered with UMKC at a virtual pk'em price here. Take UMKC (8*). | |||||||
02-03-22 | Wolves v. Pistons +7.5 | 128-117 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Minnesota at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. Teams don't have an easy time getting up for trip to Detroit to face the lowly Pistons. That's a big reason why Detroit has managed to hang tough at home, going 13-11 ATS, outscored by just 4.5 points on average despite dropping 16 of 24 games SU. Since the beginning of January alone, the Pistons have defeated the likes of the Spurs, Jazz, Raptors and Cavs while also taking the Nuggets down to the wire in a five-point loss. For Minnesota, the situation is compounded by the fact that it is coming off consecutive home wins over the Nuggets and Jazz. While the T'Wolves are 15-10 SU at home this season, they've gone just 11-15 on the road, outscored by 1.0 point per game along the way. Here, we'll note that they're just 17-29 ATS when coming off a win over the last two seasons, outscored by an average of 1.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Pistons are 25-12 ATS when coming off a home loss over the last two seasons and also 40-24 ATS after scoring 105 points or less over the same stretch, as is the case here. Take Detroit (8*). | |||||||
02-02-22 | Wizards v. 76ers -10 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up nicely for the 76ers as they look to avenge a 117-98 loss in Washington on Martin Luther King Jr. Day (we won with the Wizards in that game). Washington is in the second of back-to-backs after fading late in a 14-point loss in Washington last night. The Wizards scored just 98 points in that game despite getting a season-high 20 points on 9-of-15 shooting from Montresz Harrell off the bench. Already without Bradley Beal, the Wiz also lost Thomas Bryant in that game. Bryant isn't generally a major factor but he does eat 15-20 minutes per game and did contribute 15 points in Washington's win over Philadelphia a couple of weeks ago. The 76ers managed to outlast the Grizzlies here on Monday, despite giving Joel Embiid the night off. Embiid should be back for this one. Note that while Philadelphia has scored over 100 points in seven straight games, Washington has been held under the century mark in three of its last four and things aren't likely to improve until Bradley Beal can return. Prior to that sleepy matinee affair in Washington on MLK Day, the Sixers had put up 117, 129, 114, 132, 120, 125, 127 and 141 points in their previous eight meetings with the Wizards. Note that the Wiz have given up an average of 120.8 points when playing the second of back-to-back road games over the last two seasons, as is the case here. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
02-02-22 | Hartford v. New Hampshire -4.5 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
CBB America East Game of the Year. My selection is on New Hampshire minus the points over Hartford at 7 pm et on Wednesday. These teams may be heading in opposite directions from an ATS perspective, with Hartford having gone 5-1 ATS over its last six games and New Hampshire managing just one ATS victory in its last seven, but I look for the Wildcats to right the ship and deliver a convincing victory on Wednesday. This is a rematch from a game played in Hartford back on January 19th. The Hawks prevailed by double-digits in that game, turning in a near-perfect offensive performance, shooting better than 52% from the field while turning the ball over just six times. Since then, Hartford has only managed to split its last four games but does come into this one off a 12-point victory at lowly Maine - its second consecutive win. New Hampshire has been alternating wins and losses over its last nine games and checks in off a seven-point home loss but that came against one of America East's elite teams in Stony Brook. Consecutive games against Hartford and Maryland-Baltimore County will give the Wildcats a chance to gain some traction in the conference before a return date against Stony Brook next week. They've certainly had this home game against the Hawks circled since that earlier loss in Hartford. UNH didn't bring its 'A' game on that night, shooting a miserable 37% from the field. The shots simply weren't falling but I expect a different story to unfold here in New Hampshire on Wednesday. Credit the Wildcats for managing to shoot just shy of 47% in that most recent loss to Stony Brook. It undoubtedly catches Hartford in a letdown spot here after the Hawks shot a blistering 60% from the field against a weak Maine squad last time out. Take New Hampshire (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |