Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-03-23 | The Citadel +6.5 v. Mercer | 41-66 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 32 m | Show | |
My selection is on The Citadel plus the points over Mercer at 5 pm et on Friday. These two teams just met last weekend as Mercer routed The Citadel by 22 points. I'm anticipating a far more competitive affair on Friday, however, noting that The Citadel is an impressive 8-1 ATS when playing away from home off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of only 0.3 points in that spot. Meanwhile, Mercer is 2-10 ATS in road/neutral site games after posting consecutive ATS victories, which is also the situation here, outscored by 8.1 points on average in that situation. Take The Citadel (8*). | |||||||
03-02-23 | Stanford v. Oregon State +5 | Top | 83-60 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Stanford at 9 pm et on Thursday. We won with Stanford in its double-digit victory over Washington last Sunday - a true 'get right' spot for the Cardinal after they had lost three games in a row. Now I feel the shoe is on the other foot as Stanford heads out on the road to face Oregon State on Thursday. The Beavers enter this contest having dropped three games in a row, including a tough two-point setback against rival Oregon last Saturday. I do think Oregon State can be a thorn in Stanford's side here, noting that the Beavers rank 109th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency this season and 338th in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom), perhaps offering a bit of a 'shock to the system' to the Cardinal after they faced Washington (which ranks 78th in adjusted tempo) last time out. For Stanford, it might be easy to overlook to the Beavers with a tougher (on paper) road tilt against the Oregon Ducks on tap on Saturday. That wouldn't be wise, however, as Oregon State has staged recent home upsets against the likes of Colorado and USC (both since the start of February). Take Oregon State (10*). | |||||||
02-27-23 | West Virginia v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 72-69 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over West Virginia at 9 pm et on Monday. Last Monday we saw West Virginia rout Oklahoma State but I think the shoe is on the other foot this week as the Mountaineers stay on the road for a second game in three days. WVU is coming off a narrow two-point defeat at mighty Kansas on Saturday. The Mountaineers have now hoisted up more than 60 field goal attempts in three straight games but I think they're in for a 'shock to the system' against a revenge-minded Cyclones squad on Monday. That's because Iowa State ranks eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and 325th in adjusted tempo this season, not to mention the fact that it has faced the sixth most difficult schedule (all according to KenPom). The Cyclones are coming off three straight losses, both SU and ATS, going cold offensively at the wrong time. I do think the door is open for a breakout performance offensively here, however, noting that West Virginia has allowed 30, 26, 29, 20 and 28 made field goals over its last five games. The outlier over that stretch came against a fast-fading Oklahoma State squad last Monday. There really wasn't much separating these two teams in their earlier meeting this season - a game West Virginia won by a 76-71 score. The difference ended up being the Mountaineers making good on seven more free throws, getting to the charity stripe 31 times in that contest. The Cyclones have been a more disciplined team in that regard here at home this season, where they've yielded just 17 free throw attempts per contest. Take Iowa State (10*). | |||||||
02-26-23 | Washington v. Stanford -5.5 | Top | 69-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Stanford minus the points over Washington at 6 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 'under' in Stanford's home loss against Washington State on Thursday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Cardinal as they look to take their frustrations out on Washington, and snap their three-game skid in the process, on Sunday. Washington has been fortunate to run into a very manageable schedule lately, reeling off three straight victories over Oregon, Oregon State and California. The Huskies have been fortunate that their last two opponents haven't been able to make the most of their scoring opportunities as punchless Beavers and Golden Bears squads made good on just 20 field goals apiece despite both getting off well north of 60 field goal attempts. Should the Cardinal reach that level of shot-volume here they have the potential to go off offensively. Stanford has been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 23 or more field goals in eight straight games and 28 or more in half of those contests. A tough slate of opponents let to a defensive lull from Stanford earlier this month but I did like what I saw on Thursday as the Cardinal limited Washington State to only 48 field goal attempts in the narrow defeat. Washington doesn't figure to offer a stiff test in that regard as the Huskies have managed to get off 57 or fewer field goal attempts in six straight games, making good on 23 or less in four of those contests. This is a big revenge spot for the Cardinal after they dropped an 86-69 stunner in Washington back in January. Stanford quite simply had an off shooting night and ended up chasing for much of the game, ultimately getting off a whopping 70 FG attempts but connecting on only 24 of them. I look for a much sharper performance from the revenge-minded Cardinal here. Take Stanford (10*). | |||||||
02-23-23 | Blazers v. Kings -5.5 | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Sacramento minus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Thursday. We successfully faded the Kings in their last game before the All-Star break as they couldn't overcome a blistering shooting performance from the Suns in a double-digit loss in Phoenix. Here, I won't hesitate to go the other way and back Sacramento as it aims to bounce back on its home floor. We've seen wild swings in production from the Kings offense lately. They've knocked down 46 or more field goals in five of their last nine games. They were held to fewer than 40 made field goals in the other four contests. I do think they turn in a strong offensive performance here, noting that the Blazers have allowed 48, 47, 46, 47, 42 and 45 made field goals in their last six contests - consistently bad in other words. The Kings are by no means a defensive juggernaut but they have held eight consecutive opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. Meanwhile, Portland has been held to fewer than 90 field goal attempts in nine of its last 11 contests. I mentioned the high ceiling of the Kings offense. Perhaps the opposite could be said of the Blazers, at least in recent weeks, as they've been held to 44 or fewer made field goals in nine of their last 10 contests. This is a double-revenge spot for the Kings as they look to get back at the Blazers after dropping a 115-108 decision at home against Portland back in October. Of note, Jerami Grant poured in a team-high 23 points, getting to the free throw line 13 times and knocking down all three of his three-point attempts, in that game. He's expected to return to the lineup on Thursday but hasn't played in just shy of two weeks. He's also struggled to recapture the form he displayed earlier in the season, scoring fewer than 20 points in seven of his last 11 contests. Take Sacramento (8*). | |||||||
02-22-23 | Arkansas State v. UL - Lafayette -14 | Top | 74-85 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
Sun Belt Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana-Lafayette minus the points over Arkansas State at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. The first meeting between these two teams this season saw Louisiana-Lafayette prevail by an 80-71 score on the road but that final tally doesn't tell the whole story. Arkansas State shot the lights out from beyond the arc to keep pace in that contest, knocking down 11-of-22 three-point attempts. Keep in mind, the Red Wolves average just 6-of-18 shooting from three-point range this season. In fact, Arkansas State is one of the worst offensive teams in the entire country, ranking 308th in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced only the 256th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). Not only that but the Red Wolves rank 342nd in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom) so the scoring opportunities are rarely there to keep pace with superior opponents. That didn't stop them from securing a 75-70 win over Georgia State last time out. Of course, the Panthers have their own issues, ranking 320th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency but that's another story. Louisiana-Lafayette has hit a bit of a lull having dropped three of its last four games including a 74-68 decision on the road against a good James Madison squad last time out. I'm confident we'll see the Ragin' Cajuns take their frustrations out on the Red Wolves here, however. Note that Louisiana ranks an impressive 46th in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having faced the 139th toughest slate of opponents. The Ragin' Cajuns have been the picture of consistency from an offensive standpoint, knocking down 24 or more field goals in eight straight and 27 of 28 games overall this season. That's in stark contrast to Arkansas State, which has made good on 24 or more field goals just once in its last eight contests. The Red Wolves had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone making them, hoisting up 51 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight games entering tonight's clash. On the flip side, while it may seem impressive that Arkansas State has held its last five opponents to just 21, 21, 25, 21 and 25 made field goals, that's had everything to do with the fact that those five foes all got off 57 or fewer FG attempts. Louisiana-Lafayette has hoisted up 58 or more FG attempts in six of its last eight games and figures to push the pace here, noting that it shot 29-of-56 in its previous road tilt against Arkansas State this season. Take Louisiana-Lafayette (10*). | |||||||
02-17-23 | Dayton v. Loyola-Chicago +7.5 | Top | 65-49 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
Atlantic-10 Game of the Year. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago plus the points over Dayton at 7 pm et on Friday. Most completely wrote off Loyola-Chicago from a betting perspective in mid-January and perhaps for good reason as the Ramblers had started the 22-23 campaign with a miserable 3-15 ATS record through 18 games. Since then, however, Loyola-Chicago has gone a respectable 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS over its last seven games and while it sits in last-place in the Atlantic-10 standings, all is not lose given all 15 teams will take part in the conference tournament in March. Here, the Ramblers will have revenge on their minds after dropping a tough 85-81 decision at Dayton back on January 31st, in a game where the Flyers owned a 31-13 disparity in terms of free throw attempts (keeping in mind Dayton only averages three more trips to the charity stripe than Loyola-Chicago this season). That game kicked off a 4-1 ATS run for the Ramblers and I look for them to improve on that mark here. Note that Loyola-Chicago has really turned things around defensively. After a stretch that saw it allow 28 or more made field goals in five of seven games from December 22nd to January 18th, they've yielded 26 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven contests. The outlier came in a game where they allowed St. Joseph's to knock down 28 of a whopping 68 field goal attempts. Dayton is highly unlikely to approach that level of shot volume here, noting that it ranks 339th in the country in adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). Offensively, we've seen more consistency from the Ramblers during their recent uptick as they've knocked down 23 or more field goals in six of their last seven games with the low-water mark coming earlier this week when they made good on only 21 field goals but still pulled out a 64-62 win at UMass. As I mentioned, Dayton plays at a very slow pace. The Flyers have hoisted up 56 or fewer field goal attempts in 10 of their last 12 games overall. While they are a terrific defensive team, it's not as if they've been completely shutting down opposing offenses. Dayton has yielded at least 20 made field goals in 12 straight contests, including that game against Loyola-Chicago in which the Ramblers connected on 29-of-59 FG attempts. These two teams have faced almost identical schedules in terms of difficulty this season (according to KenPom) and while Dayton has proven to be the superior squad to be sure, Loyola-Chicago has at least narrowed the gap in recent weeks. I'm still not convinced the betting marketplace has caught up with the Ramblers improved play so I'll grab all the points I can get here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). | |||||||
02-15-23 | Heat -1 v. Nets | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Brooklyn at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The excitement around the new-look, youthful Brooklyn Nets has faded somewhat as they've dropped consecutive games against the 76ers and Knicks. Despite catching fire from the field for stretches, the Nets still managed to knock down only 35 field goals and score just 106 points in Monday's lopsided defeat in Manhattan. You would have to go back five games to find the last time Brooklyn knocked down 40+ field goals in a game and things certainly won't get any easier as they host a Heat team coming off a loss two nights ago on Wednesday. Miami ran into a red-hot shooting Nuggets squad on Monday, falling by four points. Still, the Heat have held an incredible 16 straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts and 17 of their last 22 foes to 40 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, the Heat have been limited to 40 or fewer made field goals in six of their last seven and 10 of their last 12 games overall. On many occasions, the opportunities just haven't been there in abundance as Miami does play at a slow pace. I don't anticipate that being an issue here, however, noting that the Nets have allowed four of their last seven opponents to hoist up more than 90 FG attempts. This is undoubtedly a game the Heat have had circled on their calendar since dropping a 102-101 decision at home against the Nets back on January 8th. Brooklyn has now won back-to-back meetings in this series which is notable as it hasn't posted three straight victories over the Heat since 2017-18. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
02-15-23 | Virginia Tech v. Georgia Tech +8 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Year. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Virginia Tech at 7 pm et on Wednesday. We cashed a previous big ticket on Georgia Tech in its upset home win over Miami in early January but have left the Yellow Jackets alone since and probably for good reason as they followed up that victory with a 1-7 ATS slide. However, we have seen signs of life once again from Georgia Tech lately as it enters Wednesday's matchup with Virginia Tech off three straight ATS victories. Last time out it suffered a narrow one-point loss as a 13-point underdog at Wake Forest. While few are paying attention to them, I believe the Yellow Jackets are in good position to at the very least take the Hokies down to the wire on Wednesday. We haven't necessarily seen the payoff just yet but the Jackets are doing a nice job of pushing the pace, having gotten off 60 or more field goal attempts in three of their last four and seven of their last 10 games overall. Here, they'll face a Hokies squad that has been terrific offensively in recent weeks but it has seemingly come at the expense of their defensive play. Virginia Tech checks in having allowed 29, 23, 35, 25, 29 and 34 made field goals over its last six contests. Of those six opponents only two got off more than 60 field goal attempts so it's not as if the opposition has found success only by volume-shooting. As I mentioned, Virginia Tech is on a tear offensively, however Georgia Tech does figure to offer some resistance. The Yellow Jackets check in a respectable 140th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency despite facing the 66th most difficult schedule (both according to KenPom). They've held their last four opponents to just 21, 26, 23 and 23 made field goals and that's despite three of those games coming on the road. Also note that Georgia Tech has limited eight of its last 10 opponents to fewer than 60 FG attempts and ranks 220th in the nation in adjusted tempo this season. There's a path for the revenge-minded Yellow Jackets (they dropped both meetings in this series last season) to effectively shorten this game and stay inside the generous pointspread. Take Georgia Tech (10*). | |||||||
02-14-23 | Kings v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 109-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Pacific Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Sacramento at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for the Suns as they try to close the gap on the Kings in the Pacific Division standings (Phoenix currently sits two games back of Sacramento for top spot). Sacramento has been a terrific story this season but we've certainly seen some regression from the Kings lately as they've gone an even 6-6 over their last 12 games. We did get the result we wanted from them on Saturday as they successfully avenged a loss to the Mavs in the second half of a back-to-back set at home, prevailing 133-128 in overtime. That sets us up with a reasonably short number in favor of the Suns at home here. While Phoenix is a little undermanned right now with Kevin Durant still sidelined and yet to make his team debut, I like the fact that it has gone back to its bread-and-butter, that being its defense, to right the ship. The Suns have won three of their last five games and are absolutely locked-in defensively right now having held four of those five opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. Suns opponents have had a tough enough time just getting shots off let alone knocking them down, managing only 75, 81, 79, 95 and 85 field goal attempts over their last five contests. The outlier came in a game where they were severely short-handed on trade deadline day against the Hawks (Devin Booker missed that game as well). Save for that poor performance in Atlanta, the Suns have made good on more than 40 field goals in four of their last five and six of their last eight games overall. Meanwhile, Kings' opponents have been 'filling it up' lately, knocking down 48, 44, 47, 43 and 47 (aided by overtime) field goals over their last five contests. In fact, Sacramento has allowed an incredible 20 straight and 27 of its last 28 opponents to make good on 40 or more field goals. Offensively, the Kings are explosive but we've seen some inconsistency in that department lately as they've been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in three of their last six games. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
02-14-23 | Buffalo +5.5 v. Ohio | Top | 61-85 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. We won with Buffalo in the first meeting between these two teams this season and I won't hesitate to back the Bulls again in Tuesday's rematch in Ohio. While Buffalo has been involved in its share of track meets this season, I believe it is a better defensive team than most give it credit for. The Bulls got off to a terrible start at that end of the floor in non-conference play but have certainly turned things around over the last month or so, limiting eight of their last 12 opponents to 27 or fewer made field goals. That's despite 10 of those 12 foes hoisting up at least 60 field goal attempts. Of course, the Buffalo offense is going to be there. The Bulls rank 163rd in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and fourth in adjusted tempo (both according to KenPom). They've faced the 118th most difficult schedule in the country while Ohio has gone against the 190th toughest slate of opponents (also according to KenPom). I mentioned that Buffalo has been tougher defensively than most give it credit for - I feel the opposite is true for Ohio. The Bobcats have allowed four of their last five opponents to knock down at least 28 field goals. They've been consistently allowing opponents to get well into the 20's in terms of made field goals despite holding seven of their last eight foes to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Offensively, the Bobcats have admittedly been red hot lately, making good on 30 or more field goals in four of their last seven games. Of course three of those 30+ field goal performances came against three of the MAC's worst teams in Central Michigan, Western Michigan and Eastern Michigan. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
02-12-23 | Marist +10 v. Siena | Top | 65-73 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Marist plus the points over Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Red Foxes in this Sunday MAAC matchup. Siena took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 15 points back on January 29th. Marist had an absolutely dreadful game from beyond the arc, knocking down only 2-of-18 three-point attempts. Keep in mind, it averages seven made threes per game on the season. In that previous meeting, Siena also got to the free throw line 13 more times, making good on 10 of those attempts. These are disparities I just don't see repeating themselves in Sunday's rematch. Marist has held five of its last six opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts, giving it a path to effectively shorten this contest as a large underdog on Sunday. The only occasion where it allowed more than that number, it won by eight points against Canisius. Offensively, the Red Foxes managed to get off 61 FG attempts against St. Peter's on Friday, but simply couldn't make the most of their opportunities, knocking down only 19. Prior to that they had made good on 20 or more field goals in five straight games. Here, they'll face a Siena squad that has yielded at least 20 made field goals in 18 consecutive games, despite each of its last 11 opponents getting off fewer than 60 FG attempts. Offensively, the Saints have been limited to 52 or fewer FG attempts in three of their last four games, knocking down 22 or fewer field goals in all four of those contests. Take Marist (10*). | |||||||
02-11-23 | BYU +12 v. Gonzaga | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
WCC Game of the Year. My selection is on BYU plus the points over Gonzaga at 10 pm et on Saturday. We got precisely the results we wanted in these two teams' most recent games earlier this week. BYU suffered a stunning double-digit loss at Pepperdine while Gonzaga rolled to a blowout win over San Francisco. That sets the Bulldogs up as a big double-digit favorite against the Cougars here. Note that BYU nearly staged the upset against the mighty Zags at home earlier this season, dropping a 75-74 decision as a +6.5-point underdog. Despite the loss on Thursday, BYU does enter this game playing well offensively - better than it was the last time it faced the Zags. The Cougars have made good on 35, 29 and 29 field goals over their last three contests. On the flip side, they've held six straight opponents to fewer than 60 field goal attempts. Gonzaga shot the lights out against San Francisco last time out, knocking down a whopping 34 field goals. The Bulldogs haven't made good on 30 or more field goals in consecutive games over their last six contests. Defensively, Gonzaga has allowed 27 or more made field goals in four of its last six games with four of its last five foes hoisting up at least 60 FG attempts. In other words, the scoring opportunities should be there for the underdog Cougars on Saturday. Take BYU (10*). | |||||||
02-09-23 | Arizona v. California +19 | 85-62 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on California plus the points over Arizona at 11 pm et on Thursday. While California has gone a miserable 3-20 straight-up this season it has found plenty of pointspread success. The Golden Bears started the season with five straight ATS losses (none of those defeats came by more than 10 points) but since then have gone a respectable 10-8 ATS. Here, they catch Arizona off three consecutive ATS wins. The Wildcats have been red hot offensively but I can't help but feel they get slowed here noting that the Bears rank 356th out of 363 Division I teams in terms of adjusted tempo this season (according to KenPom). There's a path for Cal to effectively shorten this game and keep things reasonably competitive, especially noting it went to Tucson and lost by 'only' 13 points against the Wildcats earlier this season. While Cal's offense has been dreadful, it has faced the 27th most difficult slate of defensive opponents in the country this season (again according to KenPom). It will undoubtedly face a tough challenge against Arizona here as well, although there is hope as the Wildcats tend to give up their share of scoring opportunities with nine of their last 11 opponents getting off at least 60 field goal attempts. Here, we'll note that Arizona is a long-term 38-59 ATS after scoring 80 points or more in three consecutive games, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Cal has been outscored by just 4.2 points on average the last 15 times it has come off four consecutive games in which it scored 65 points or less, which is the situation it is in on Thursday. Take California (8*). | |||||||
02-09-23 | Bucks v. Lakers +6.5 | Top | 115-106 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Milwaukee at 10 pm et on Thursday. I'll take a flyer on the Lakers here as they catch a generous helping of points against the Bucks on Thursday night. Everything went right for Milwaukee on Monday as it cruised to a 19-point win over the Blazers in Portland. The Bucks were certainly fortunate that Portland had an off night shooting as the Blazers actually got off 91 field goal attempts in that contest. Milwaukee is still giving up far too many scoring opportunities for my liking, allowing each of its last five opponents to hoist up at least 91 field goal attempts. Here, they'll face a Lakers squad that brings solid offensive form to the table having made good on 48, 42, 45 and 49 field goals over their last four games. Note that the Bucks enter this game off consecutive ATS wins which is notable as they haven't strung together three straight ATS victories since the first week of November. The Bucks are a long-term 113-166 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive straight-up wins, as is the case here. Despite their lopsided win in Portland on Monday, they're still just 14-12 SU on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.4 points. The Lakers are winless ATS over their last three games. That's their longest ATS losing streak since dropping the cash in five straight games from December 18th to 25th. While they're just 13-13 SU at home this season they've outscored opponents by 2.3 points on average here at Crypto.com Arena. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
02-09-23 | Nuggets v. Magic +6.5 | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Denver at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. We got the results we wanted two nights ago to set up this play on Thursday. The Nuggets avenged a loss in Minnesota two nights earlier with a resounding 146-112 win over the Timberwolves at home (they jumped ahead 49-19 after the first quarter) while the Magic dropped a 102-98 loss at home against the surging Knicks. It's important not to disregard the Magic, however, as this is a young team that is learning to win, having notched 10 victories in their last 14 games. Incredibly by today's NBA standards, Orlando has held eight of its last nine opponents to 85 or fewer field goal attempts. On the only occasion where an opponent did get over that number, the Magic still won by seven points in Minnesota. The Magic are coming off a subpar offensive performance against a good Knicks defense two nights ago but it's worth noting they haven't been held to fewer than 40 made field goals in consecutive games since December 3rd and 5th. The Nuggets are likely to re-tool prior to Thursday's trade deadline in an effort to 'keep up with the Joneses' in the Western Conference, which could also help our cause in terms of closing line value here. Here, we'll note that Denver enters this contest having allowed six straight opponents to knock down 40 or more field goals. Remember, when these two teams last met in Denver on January 15th, the Nuggets won by only three points as -10.5-point favorites. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
02-08-23 | Pacers +7 v. Heat | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on Indiana plus the points over Miami at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. We got the result we wanted from the Pacers on Sunday to set up this play as they fell in blowout fashion at home against the Cavs. I don't think Miami has any business laying so many points at home, noting that while it has gone 17-9 on this floor this season, it has only outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.5 points. This particular series has been as close as it gets in three previous meetings this season, with those three contests decided by a grand total of 10 points, with Indiana winning twice, including a 111-108 victory here in Miami on December 23rd. Here, we'll note that the Pacers are a long-term 54-32 ATS when coming off a home loss against a division opponent, as is the case here. Take Indiana (8*). | |||||||
02-07-23 | Thunder +7.5 v. Lakers | 133-130 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this bounce-back spot sets up for the Thunder as they come off last night's drubbing at the hands of the Warriors in San Francisco. Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is just one game removed from a 153-point explosion in a rout of the Rockets on Saturday. Being brought back to Earth by the defending champion Warriors might not have been the worst thing for the young Thunder. Los Angeles has been playing some of its best basketball but is in a bit of a tough spot here, returning home following a five-game road trip, noting that it is just 13-12, outscoring opponents by an average margin of only 2.5 points here this season. With no player seeing 30 or more minutes of action last night, I'm not as worried about the back-to-back spot for the Thunder. This is a team that has been outscored by just 3.3 points on average on the road this season and I expect them to respond favorably following last night's blowout defeat. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
02-06-23 | Spurs +11 v. Bulls | Top | 104-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on San Antonio plus the points over Chicago at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Bulls are in uncharted territory right now having reeled off four straight home wins (their longest previous home win streak this season lasted only three games). I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown on Monday, however, as they host the lowly Spurs, who haven't tasted victory since January 17th. This one might not be as straight-forward as it looks on paper for Chicago, noting that San Antonio has actually taken two of three meetings in this series going back to last season, including a 129-124 victory as a five-point underdog back in late October. While the Spurs enter this game riding an eight-game losing streak (seven straight losses ATS), they have shown signs of life lately, knocking down 48, 42, 48 and 52 field goals over their last four games. In their last five contests playing with at least a day's rest on the road, they've lost by three in New York, eight and six (in a two-game set) in Memphis, by 20 in Portland and by nine in Los Angeles (against the Lakers). So it's not as if they've been getting their doors blown off away from home. Defensively, San Antonio is arguably the league's worst team and it certainly doesn't head to Chicago in solid form in that regard. With that being said, the Bulls are certainly poised for some regression offensively. Chicago has actually gotten off 81 or fewer field goal attempts in four straight games, but managed to knock down 41 or more of those shots on three occasions over that stretch. I don't think the numbers add up to extended pointspread success. Here, we'll note that the Bulls are a long-term 112-154 ATS when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins. Take San Antonio (10*). | |||||||
02-05-23 | Mt. St. Mary's +12 v. Quinnipiac | Top | 79-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 48 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Mount St. Mary's plus the points over Quinnipiac at 2 pm et on Sunday. With Mount St. Mary's coming off a 30-point rout at Iona and Quinnipiac winning by 15 points against Fairfield on Friday, most will likely be looking to lay the points with the Bobcats at home on Sunday. I'll go the other way, however, noting that Quinnipiac checks in a long-term 10-24 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by just 0.3 points on average in that situation. Mount St. Mary's has held four straight opponents to 56 or fewer field goal attempts (which just happens to be the average number of FG attempts it has allowed per game this season) and can effectively shorten proceedings on Sunday and ultimately keep the Bobcats within arm's reach. Quinnipiac has allowed four straight opponents to hoist up 60 or more FG attempts. While Mount St. Mary's is no offensive juggernaut, it does have a fairly solid floor when it comes to offensive production, knocking down 20 or more field goals in 12 straight games entering Sunday's contest (that's notable given the slow pace it plays at). Take Mount St. Mary's (10*). | |||||||
02-04-23 | Oregon State +19.5 v. Arizona | 52-84 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oregon State plus the points over Arizona at 9:30 pm et on Saturday. I simply feel the Wildcats are laying too many points in this rematch of their 86-74 road win over Oregon State back on January 12th. Few teams play slower than the Beavers and I do think there's a path for them to keep this game competitive on Saturday in Tucson. It's certainly been a trying campaign for Oregon State but it has also faced the 56th most difficult schedule in the country according to KenPom. The Beavers have mustered little offense but do rank a respectable 126th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (also according to KenPom). Unlike the last time they faced Arizona, they do enter this game in terrific defensive form, having held their last four opponents to just 18, 22, 21 and 22 made field goals. The last time they faced Arizona they allowed the Wildcats to shoot 32-of-61 from the field - both of those numbers represent season-highs for Oregon State in Pac-12 play - yet still lost by 'only' 12 points. Of note, the Beavers got off 60 field goal attempts of their own in that contest - matching a season-high for them in conference play - and here they'll face a Wildcats squad that has allowed 60 or more FG attempts in nine of their last 10 games (the only game in which they didn't they won by just five points against Washington State - the blueprint from that contest could certainly be used by Oregon State here). In other words, the Beavers will undoubtedly have their share of scoring opportunities here and I'm willing to back them, while also fading a Wildcats squad that is coming off five straight wins and consecutive 90+ point performances. Take Oregon State (8*). | |||||||
02-03-23 | Blazers v. Wizards -4 | Top | 124-116 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Both of these teams enter this game red hot ATS, although in the case of the Blazers, getting over the hump in that regard has proven difficult. They're coming off consecutive ATS victories (and four in their last five games) but haven't reeled off three straight ATS wins since December 10th to 14th. In that case, the third ATS win came in a rout of the lowly Spurs. The Wizards check in riding a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS streak. Impressively, the last four wins came on the road. They won by 21 points last time out in San Antonio and that's notable as they've gone 24-11 ATS when coming off a double-digit win over the last three seasons. Note that Washington has held seven of its last nine opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While that's not all that impressive on the face of it, keep in mind, seven of those nine opponents got off 90 or more field goal attempts. Here, the Wizards are unlikely to face such a shooting barrage as the Blazers have hoisted up fewer than 90 FG attempts in 11 of their last 12 contests. On the flip side, Portland has proven extremely vulnerable defensively, allowing 11 straight opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. Not only that but they've had no success (or interest) in slowing their opponents' pace, yielding 90 or more FG attempts in four of their last five contests. While these non-conference matchups sometimes leave teams feeling a little flat, I don't think that will be the case for the Wizards, not after they dropped both meetings in this series last season, including a home loss where they were favored by seven points. Look for revenge-minded Washington to gets its payback here. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
02-02-23 | California v. Colorado -15.5 | Top | 46-59 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Colorado minus the points over California at 10 pm et on Thursday. This is a big revenge spot for Colorado after it was stunned by an 80-76 score against California in the teams' first meeting this season. The Buffaloes enter this contest on the heels of back-to-back losses and defeats in five of their last six games overall, both SU and ATS. I think we'll see a 'sling-shot' effect from the Colorado offense here after it got off 65 and 60 field goal attempts but could only muster a combined 45 made field goals in a pair of games at Oregon and Oregon State last week. Here, the Buffaloes figure to 'get right' against a putrid Cal defense (it ranks 236th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom) that has allowed 27, 31, 27 and 28 made field goals over its last four games - despite holding three of those four opponents to 55 or fewer field goal attempts. On the flip side, Colorado ranks top-20 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, not to mention the fact it rates out 55th in adjusted tempo (also according to KenPom). I'm not convinced there will be enough scoring opportunities for the Bears to keep this one within reach. They rank a miserable 356th in the nation in adjusted tempo. Colorado has smothered opposing offenses, holding those opponents to 50, 51, 53 and 47 field goal attempts over its last four contests. Take Colorado (10*). | |||||||
02-01-23 | Warriors v. Wolves +3.5 | 114-119 | Win | 100 | 23 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Minnesota plus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I'll back the revenge-minded T'Wolves on Wednesday as they look to get back at the Warriors after dropping the first meeting of the season by 23 points back in late November. Minnesota checks in off a loss in the second game of a two-game set with the Kings. Sacramento made the necessary adjustments after dropping the opener, knocking down a whopping 47 field goals in a 118-111 win on Monday. Prior to that, the T'Wolves had held three consecutive opponents to 38 or fewer made field goals. On the flip side, Minnesota enters this game having knocked down 40 or more field goals in five straight and 11 of its last 12 games overall. It's a similar story for Golden State offensively, but at the other end of the floor, it has struggled. The Warriors have yielded 42 or more made field goals in eight straight games and 40+ in 14 consecutive contests. Here, we'll note that Golden State is just 17-30 ATS when playing on the road off a win over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.4 points in that situation. Take Minnesota (8*). | |||||||
02-01-23 | Penn State +10.5 v. Purdue | 60-80 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Penn State plus the points over Purdue at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. While Purdue is obviously the superior team in this matchup, I'm not convinced there's as much separating the two squads as indicated by the inflated pointspread. The Boilermakers beat the Nittany Lions by 13 points in their first meeting back in early January. Purdue shot the lights out in that game while Penn State couldn't make the most of its whopping 62 field goal attempts, knocking down only 26 of them. Since yielding 31 made field goals in that defeat, the Nittany Lions have held their last five opponents to 26, 23, 23, 23 and 25 made field goals. While some might believe Penn State is in for a letdown here off a 22-point rout of Michigan last time out, I don't see it. Keep in mind, the Nittany Lions are just one game removed from a 20-point setback at the hands of Rutgers. This certainly isn't the time for Penn State to get complacent. Purdue is coming off a win and cover against Michigan State but remains just 9-11 ATS in lined contests this season. The Boilers 29 made field goals in that win over the Spartans represented a high-water mark in that department over their last six games. You would have to go back 14 games to find the last time Purdue got off 60 or more field goal attempts in a game - a big reason why it seems to have trouble covering these lofty pointspreads. Take Penn State (8*). | |||||||
01-31-23 | Kansas State v. Kansas -6.5 | Top | 78-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Kansas minus the points over Kansas State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Kansas State outlasted Kansas in a thriller in Manhattan back on January 17th - an upset that wasn't really an upset. Here, I look for the Jayhawks to exact their revenge as they look to build off a solid 77-68 win over Kentucky. Getting out of the Big 12 for a game was probably a welcome relief for Kansas after it had dropped three straight games SU and five in a row ATS. The Jayhawks got back to a winning formula in that contest, holding the Wildcats to just 51 field goal attempts. I look for them to frustrate the Kansas State offense on Tuesday as well, noting that the Wildcats have touched 25 made field goals just once in three games since reaching that mark in that January 17th win over the Jayhawks. On the occasion where they did they still fell by four points on the road against Iowa State. The Wildcats are coming off a 14-point win over Florida on Saturday. They were fortunate that the Gators couldn't make the most of their scoring opportunities, knocking down only 18 field goals in the defeat. Kansas State isn't likely to be so fortunate here, noting that Kansas connected on an impressive 31 field goals in Saturday's win and averages 29-of-61 shooting here at home this season. While Kansas State has been the far better bet this season - one of the best in the nation in that regard in fact - it has also faced the 39th toughest schedule according to KenPom. Contrast that with Kansas - no team has faced a more difficult slate of opponents than the Jayhawks based on the same metrics. The last time these two in-state rivals met on this floor, the Jayhawks won by 19. In fact, you would have to go back to 2018 to find the last time the Wildcats kept it to a single-digit losing margin on the road against Kansas. Take Kansas (10*). | |||||||
01-31-23 | Heat v. Cavs -5 | 100-97 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Miami at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Heat were playing with a thin margin for error during their recent three-game winning streak. They got off a combined 38 more field goal attempts than the opposition over that stretch, yet still only won those three contests by a grand total of 12 points. Perhaps not surprisingly, they got caught by the Hornets on Sunday, still getting off 10 more field goal attempts than Charlotte but falling by five points. Now Miami, with its woeful 19-30-2 ATS record, heads to Cleveland to face a Cavs squad that just welcomed back Donovan Mitchell and rolled to a 122-99 win over the Clippers last time out. Cleveland has now scored 100 points or more in 13 straight games which is an accomplishment when you consider the fairly deliberate pace they tend to play at. The Cavs have knocked down 40 or more field goals in six of their last seven games despite hoisting up 88 or fewer field goal attempts in all seven of those contests. On the flip side, few teams do it better defensively, with Cleveland having limited five straight opponents to 40 or fewer made field goals. The Heat can of course play some elite defense as well, I'm just not convinced their offense will be along for the ride on Tuesday. Here, we'll note that the Cavs are 27-14 ATS when coming off a double-digit win over the last two seasons. Better still, they're 18-7 ATS when following up a double-digit home victory, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 6.8 points in that situation. Take Cleveland (8*). | |||||||
01-30-23 | Magic +10.5 v. 76ers | 119-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Magic on Friday in Miami and then got the result we wanted in a lopsided loss to the Bulls on Saturday, setting Orlando up as a significant underdog against the red hot 76ers on Monday. The Magic had a tough night at the office against the Bulls on Saturday, not all that surprising as they were in a back-to-back and three-in-four situation and it showed as they allowed Chicago to knock down 48-of-81 field goal attempts. Here, I'm confident we'll see Orlando rebound, noting that it remains a terrific 7-2 ATS over its last nine games. Philadelphia has reeled off seven straight wins, however, I do think it could prove difficult to get up for this Monday night affair, noting that it has won 10 straight matchups in this series. The 76ers have incredibly shot better than 50% from the field in six straight games. That's masked the fact that they've struggled to contain opposing offenses, allowing 43 or more made field goals in six of their last eight contests, despite seven of those opponents getting off 87 or fewer field goal attempts. Take Orlando (8*). | |||||||
01-30-23 | Virginia v. Syracuse +5.5 | Top | 67-62 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Week. My selection is on Syracuse plus the points over Virginia at 7 pm et on Monday. I'll grab all the points I can get with Syracuse on Monday as it hosts Virginia - which has suddenly vaulted itself into the national title conversation on the heels of six straight wins. Here, I can't help but feel the Cavaliers are in for a letdown after matching a season-high with 30 made field goals in Saturday's rout of Boston College. Of note, Virginia also matched a season-low in ACC play by limiting the Eagles to only 20 made field goals. It figures to face a tougher test on Monday as Syracuse looks to bounce back from consecutive losses. The Orange had impressively knocked down 30, 28, 29, 31, 29 and 23 field goals over its previous six games before shooting just 23-of-49 from the field against Virginia Tech on Saturday. Syracuse allowed the Hokies to make good on 32 field goals in that contest - a season-high allowed from the Orange. Here, we'll note that Virginia is 12-23 ATS after giving up 60 points or less in its previous game over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by just 1.6 points on average in that situation. The Cavaliers are also a miserable 3-11 ATS after winning their previous contest by 15 points or more, outscored by an average of 1.1 points in that spot. The Orange were right there with the Cavaliers for 40 minutes in their first meeting this season. I'm confident this one will go down to the wire at the very least. Take Syracuse (10*). | |||||||
01-29-23 | Pelicans +10.5 v. Bucks | 110-135 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. These teams are clearly heading in opposite directions right now with the Pelicans having lost seven games in a row and the Bucks having won five of their last six contests. With that being said, I expect New Orleans to give Milwaukee a run on Sunday night. Based on the way the Pelicans are playing right now, it's not easy to beat them by a considerable margin. Three of their last four losses have come by single-digits while the other came by 10 points (last night against Washington - a game where Jonas Valanciunas was ejected early). New Orleans has held five straight opponents to 88 or fewer field goal attempts. You would have to go back six games to find the last time one of its opponents made good on more than 40 field goals. Offensively, the Pelicans have sputtered, still missing Zion Williamson while Brandon Ingram is being eased back from injury. They should at least be given plenty of opportunities here, as the Bucks have allowed 14 of their last 16 opponents to get off at least 87 FG attempts. All told, Milwaukee has covered the spread in four of its last eight games overall. Of those ATS wins, only two came by more than 10 points. Also note that they shot the lights out in all four spread-covering victories (52% or better from the field). I think we see the Pelicans offer some resistance here. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
01-28-23 | Alabama v. Oklahoma +6.5 | 69-93 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Alabama at 2 pm et on Saturday. We missed with Oklahoma at home against Baylor last Saturday as it led most of the way before coughing it up late in a two-point loss. From there, the Sooners seemingly suffered a bit of a hangover three nights later as they were blasted on the road against a good TCU team. Here, back home against an SEC opponent in Alabama, I look for Oklahoma to bounce back. The opportunities have been there for the Sooners, they simply haven't been taking advantage. Note that they've hoisted up 56, 57 and 64 field goal attempts in their last three games and should be afforded plenty of opportunities against an up-tempo Alabama squad here as well. While the Crimson Tide have faced the fourth most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom, the Sooners aren't far behind at sixth. Here, we'll note that Oklahoma is 8-1 ATS when coming off three ATS losses in its last four games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Alabama is a woeful 1-9 ATS when coming off eight or more consecutive victories, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by just 2.6 points on average in that spot. I look for this one to go down to the wire at the very least. Take Oklahoma (8*). | |||||||
01-27-23 | Magic +7.5 v. Heat | Top | 105-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Miami at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Heat enter this game off consecutive wins but both of those games could have gone either way as they beat the Pelicans by four and the Celtics by three. I can't help but feel they're in for a letdown off the big win over the Celtics on Tuesday (they were without Jimmy Butler in that game). The pace alone in Miami's recent contests makes grabbing a generous helping of points an attractive proposition. The Heat's last three games have seen a total of 149, 158 and 168 field goal attempts. Miami checks in having knocked down 33, 35 and 34 field goals over that stretch. In stark contrast, Orlando is as healthy as it has been all season and it shows - at least offensively. The Magic have made good on 40 or more field goals in eight of their last nine games - the lone outlier came in a contest where they still scored 123 points in a double-digit win over New Orleans. Yes, Orlando has gone an ugly 6-17 SU on the road this season but it is a far more respectable 11-11-1 ATS. Compare that with the Heat, who are 16-9 SU but just 8-15-2 ATS on their home floor. When you break down the numbers, the Heat actually don't hold much of an advantage at all in this matchup. Orlando has knocked down one less field goal per game on the road compared to Miami at home, but has done so on two fewer field goal attempts on average. At the other end of the floor, the Magic yield two more made field goals per game on the road compared to the Heat at home, but do so on four additional FG attempts given up per contest. Finally, we'll note that the Heat are a woeful 4-14 ATS when coming off an ATS victory this season, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points in that situation. They're also just 5-15 ATS when following up consecutive home wins over the last two seasons, outscored by 1.5 points on average in that spot. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
01-25-23 | Nuggets +8 v. Bucks | Top | 99-107 | Push | 0 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. I understand the logic behind the Nuggets being substantial underdogs here. After all, the Nuggets are in a back-to-back spot, on the road, while the Bucks return home after putting up a ridculous 150 points in a win over the Pistons two nights ago. They're not all that flashy by any means but the Nuggets have won an incredible 20 of their last 24 games. Based on the style Denver is employing right now, it's going to be tough for anyone to beat it by a considerable margin. The Nuggets have held seven straight opponents to fewer than 90 field goal attempts. They've limited 11 consecutive opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. While Denver has made good on only 36 and 39 field goals in its last two contests that had a lot to do with the snail's pace those two games were played at. Here, they'll have a chance to get loose against a Bucks squad that has allowed their last six opponents to knock down 42, 45, 43, 46, 48 and 43 field goals, going a modest 3-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Yes, Giannis Antetokounmpo just returned two nights ago but this is a team that has figured out how to win without him in recent years. Here, Milwaukee will be missing an underrated contributor in Bobby Portis after he suffered a knee injury. Note that the Bucks are just 29-48 ATS when returning home off a road win over a division opponent going all the way back to 1996. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
01-24-23 | Oklahoma State +8 v. Texas | 75-89 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma State plus the points over Texas at 9 pm et on Tuesday. I'll grab all the points I can get with Oklahoma State as it hits the road to face Texas on Tuesday. The Cowboys are coming off consecutive SU and ATS wins, despite a sluggish offensive performance on Saturday against Iowa State. Oklahoma State made good on just 18-of-41 field goal attempts in that contest. Prior to that, the Cowboys had knocked down 22, 23 and 27 field goals in their previous three games and I'm confident we'll see them snap back offensively here. It also wasn't a top rate defensive effort from the Cowboys against the Cyclones as they allowed Iowa State to get off 63 field goal attempts - a high-water mark for Oklahoma State in Big 12 play this season. The Cowboys have still done a good job of keeping opposing offenses in check, holding each of their last six opponents to 25 or fewer made field goals. The last time they gave up more than that was in a narrow two-point loss (but ATS cover) at Kansas back on New Year's Eve. Texas continues to rack up victories but has proven to be an awful bet ATS-wise. The Longhorns were in top form at both ends of the floor against West Virginia on Saturday. They've been inconsistent though, and it's worth noting that the only two occasions where they've connected on more than 26 field goals in Big 12 play this season, they've lost by 13 points against Kansas State and won by four against TCU, both at home. Texas has won consecutive meetings in this series but you would have to go all the way back to 2016-17 to find the last time it took three straight matchups against Oklahoma State. Finally, I'll point out that Oklahoma State has faced the 13th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Texas checks in having gone against the 52nd toughest slate of opponents. While Texas has obviously fared better with a 16-3 record, I simply feel it is laying too many points in this spot. Take Oklahoma State (8*). | |||||||
01-24-23 | Kansas State v. Iowa State -5 | Top | 76-80 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Week. My selection is on Iowa State minus the points over Kansas State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. Iowa State checks in off its first ATS defeat in seven games on Saturday as it dropped a narrow two-point decision on the road against Oklahoma State. I'm confident we'll see the Cyclones bounce back on Tuesday, however, as they return home to host Kansas State. The Wildcats enter off consecutive wins, both SU and ATS. I still think this is a team playing with fire as it consistently gives up a ton of scoring opportunities, having allowed all seven opponents in Big 12 play to get off at least 63 field goal attempts and six of those to hoist up 63+. They were fortunate that Texas Tech was unable to make good on its opportunities on Saturday as the Red Raiders knocked down only 23-of-71 field goal attempts in a 68-58 Kansas State victory. We saw a glimpse of what to expect from the Kansas State offense against a smothering defense as it could only muster 20 made field goals on a season-low 47 attempts. Here, it will face an Iowa State squad that has held nine straight opponents to 22 or fewer made field goals. Only one of the Cyclones last six opponents has managed to get off 50+ field goal attempts. On the flip side, Iowa State is coming off a poor shooting performance against Oklahoma State last time out. With that being said, you only have to go back four games to find the last time it made good on more than 30 field goals (34 in a win over Texas Tech). Noting that these two teams have enjoyed similar success this season but Iowa State has faced the 15th most difficult schedule in the country while Kansas State has gone against the 53rd toughest slate of opponents (according to KenPom), we'll lay the points with the Cyclones here. Take Iowa State (10*). | |||||||
01-23-23 | Grizzlies -1 v. Kings | 100-133 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Sacramento at 10:40 pm et on Monday. While the Grizzlies staged an incredible second half comeback, they still fell short in Phoenix last night, marking their second straight loss to open their current road trip. I do like their chances of getting back in the win column as they head to Sacramento to face the Kings, who just lost for the first time in seven games on Saturday against Philadelphia. Despite last night's undesirable result, Memphis continues to play terrific defensive basketball, holding four of its last five opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. It's a much different story for the Kings as they've allowed nine consecutive opponents to knock down more than 40 field goals. To find the last nine times the Grizzlies have allowed the opposition to eclipse that number in that department you would have to go all the way back to November 18th. Offensively, both teams have been thriving. Despite the dreadful start they got off to last night, the Grizzlies still managed to connect on 40 or more field goals for the 13th straight game. Here, we'll note that Memphis is a perfect 8-0 ATS when coming off consecutive road losses over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an incredible average margin of 14.0 points in that situation. The Grizz are also 13-3 ATS after losing three of their last four games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by 15.3 points on average in that spot. Take Memphis (8*). | |||||||
01-23-23 | Hawks v. Bulls -1 | Top | 100-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Atlanta at 8:10 pm et on Monday. Having strung together consecutive wins - as healthy as they've been in a quite a while with both Zach Lavine and Demar Derozan available - and with each of their next four games coming against Eastern Conference opponents, this is where the Bulls need to get on a run if they want to put themselves in good position to reach the playoffs (they currently sit in 10th place in the conference). Tonight's opponent, the Hawks, are one of the teams Chicago is looking up at in the Eastern Conference standings. I like what I've seen from the Bulls lately. Save for a poor showing against the red hot Thunder, they've held four of their last five opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals and have certainly rounded into form offensively, knocking down 48 and 50 field goals themselves over their last two contests. The Hawks have also been hot offensively but their defensive play has left a lot to be desired. Atlanta checks in having allowed its last four opponents to make good on 43, 44, 49 and 45 field goals. Keep in mind, the Hawks are just 11-13 on the road this season, where they've been outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points per contest. The Bulls check in 12-10 at the United Center, outscoring the opposition by 1.7 points on average. To find the last time Atlanta won a game here in Chicago, you would have to go back to December of 2020. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
01-22-23 | Grizzlies -8.5 v. Suns | Top | 110-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Phoenix at 8:10 pm et on Sunday. We just saw this matchup on Monday as the Grizzlies rolled to a 30-point home victory. While the Suns would certainly like to get some quick revenge here at home, I don't feel they're well-positioned to do so. Note that Phoenix has been getting healthier with Cam Johnson returning this past Thursday. In fact, the Suns have now won consecutive games after posting a five-point victory against the Pacers last night. But now they're in a tough back-to-back spot with a number of key contributors questionable to play due to injury management or otherwise. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are just one day removed from a tough one-point loss against the Lakers in Los Angeles. They remain locked-in defensively, having held three of their last four opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. On the flip side, the Grizz continue to roll along offensively, making good on an incredible 43 or more field goals in 12 consecutive games. In fact, their 43-for-102 shooting performance against the Lakers on Friday was their low-water mark going all the way back to December 27th. The Suns have been lagging defensively. Prior to last night they had allowed their last four opponents to knock down 48, 47, 52 and 43 field goals. Last night's opponent, the Pacers, quite simply had an off night shooting as they actually got off a whopping 96 field goal attempts but only knocked down 36 of them. Usually stingy defensively when full strength, Phoenix has now allowed four of its last six opponents to get off 90 or more FG attempts. I expect the Grizzlies to take advantage on Sunday. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
01-21-23 | Bucks v. Cavs -1.5 | Top | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
Central Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Cleveland minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Saturday. There's still a cloud of uncertainty around the status of the stars of both of these teams with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Donovan Mitchell questionable to play in Saturday's fourth meeting of the season. It sounds like there's a better chance that Giannis will return than Mitchell but regardless, I like the way this spot sets up for the Cavs at home. Cleveland fell in stunning fashion against a Warriors squad that was resting its stars last night. Needless to say, I think the Cavs took a win for granted given the undermanned nature of the Warriors in that one. I don't expect Cleveland to have any trouble regrouping for a visit from one of the NBA's elite teams in the Bucks. Milwaukee is coming off consecutive near-perfect offensive showings in wins over the Pacers and Raptors at home. Lost in the Bucks recent offensive success is the fact that their defensive play hasn't been up to par. They've allowed their last four opponents to knock down 42, 45, 43 and 46 field goals. They've also had little success (or interest) in slowing their opponents' pace, yielding 92 or more field goal attempts in nine of their last 12 contests. Meanwhile, the Cavs have limited seven of their last nine opponents to 86 or fewer field goal attempts. They're allowing just 39 made field goals per contest at home this season, a big reason they've gone 19-5 SU and 16-8 ATS here in Cleveland. Take Cleveland (10*). | |||||||
01-21-23 | Baylor v. Oklahoma +1.5 | 62-60 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma plus the points over Baylor at 4 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot for Oklahoma here after it fell in lopsided fashion on the road against rival Oklahoma State on Wednesday. The Sooners are actually coming off consecutive ATS defeats, playing subpar defense in both contests. This is a better defensive team than it has shown lately, though, at least in my opinion. Keep in mind, Oklahoma has faced the eighth most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Offensively, the Sooners have been fine, essentially on par with Saturday's opponent, Baylor. Oklahoma arguably has the x-factor in this contest in former Nevada standout Grant Sherfield - one of the most underrated scorers in the country. Baylor checks into this contest off three consecutive victories both SU and ATS. The Bears quite simply shot the lights out against Texas Tech on Tuesday but I don't expect them to repeat that performance against a tougher defensive foe here. Take Oklahoma (8*). | |||||||
01-20-23 | Nets v. Jazz -6.5 | 117-106 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 9 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Brooklyn at 9:10 pm et on Friday. There's always a risk of looking foolish when backing a team one night, losing, and then fading them the next night. I'm not afraid to admit when I'm wrong, however, and I was off the mark with the Nets last night in Phoenix. That was an ideal bounce-back spot for Brooklyn after an embarrassing loss in San Antonio to open its current road trip (we did win with the 'under' in that game). What we saw, though, was a rather listless performance from the Nets, falling behind by 20 points before staging a 'false rally' in the fourth quarter to make the final score more respectable than it otherwise would have been. The Nets got about as much as they could expect from Kyrie Irving as he played through a calf injury, scoring 30 points in the loss. Curiously, Irving played 38 minutes in what was a lopsided affair most of the way. Utah checks in off a blowout win over the Clippers two nights ago. Lauri Markkanen continued his red hot tear to pace the Jazz offense on that night. Utah is now 4-1 SU in its last five games and riding a three-game ATS winning streak. While it has been red hot offensively, knocking down 43 or more field goals in six of its last eight games, it has also seemingly righted the ship defensively, holding four of its last five opponents to 42 or fewer made field goals. The Nets have been hanging tough defensively but offensively they're just not the same without Kevin Durant in the lineup. Last night marked the first time in six games that they eclipsed the 40 field goal mark and that was only thanks to the Suns letting down their guard leading by 20 points entering the fourth quarter. If the Nets aren't shooting the lights out, it's a struggle to put up a lot of points as they average just 84 field goal attempts per game this season. The Jazz average five more field goal attempts per contest by comparison, and eight additional tries per game from beyond the arc. Take Utah (8*). | |||||||
01-20-23 | St. Peter's +4 v. Marist | Top | 61-57 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on St. Peter's plus the points over Marist at 7 pm et on Friday. I like the way this spot sets up for a down-trodden St. Peter's squad that has lost five games in a row, going 1-4 ATS along the way. Marist is at the opposite end of the spectrum right now, having won three straight contests both SU and ATS. Still, I'm anticipating a reversal of those trends on Friday night. St. Peter's continues to play exceptional defensive basketball. The Peacocks always seem to have a terrific defensive system in place and they've stayed true to it this season, holding opponents to an average of just 20 made field goals on 48 attempts per game. Their last three opponents have knocked down just 18, 18 and 19 field goals. I'm confident we'll see St. Peter's frustrate the Marist offense here after it shot exceptionally well over the last few games. Keep in mind, the Red Foxes have actually gotten off 55 or fewer field goal attempts in five straight contests so it's not as if they've had a wealth of scoring opportunities. In stark contrast, St. Peter's has hoisted up 62 or more field goal attempts in three of its last six games. The difference here is, I expect some of those Peacocks shots to start falling, noting that Marist has consistently allowed in the mid-to-high 20's in terms of opponents' made field goals per game this season. Finally, I'll point out that St. Peter's is 68-41 ATS when playing on the road after losing four or five of its last six games going all the way back to 1997, as is the case here. Take St. Peter's (10*). | |||||||
01-19-23 | Nets -1 v. Suns | Top | 112-117 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Phoenix at 10 pm et on Thursday. The Nets are fresh off an embarrassing loss in San Antonio two nights ago (we won with the 'under' in that game). That marked their third straight loss although perhaps it was to be expected with Kyrie Irving sidelined (remember Kevin Durant is on the shelf as well). Kyrie is expected to return from that one-game absence on Thursday. The Suns will likely have Cam Johnson back and it sounds like there's an outside chance that Chris Paul could be back in the lineup as well. I simply see a Phoenix squad that is completely out of sorts right now, and will likely remain that way until its regulars get back up to speed. Note that the Suns have been torched for 48, 47 and 52 made field goals over their last three games. While they had been at least limiting their opponents' pace for a stretch, they've now allowed three of their last four foes to get off at least 90 field goal attempts. It's a much different story for Brooklyn. It has held five straight opponents to 41 or fewer made field goals and three of its last five to 38 or less. Offensively, it's been a grind without KD in the lineup but I expect scoring opportunities to be in abundance against a listless Suns defense on Thursday. Note that Phoenix took both meetings between these two teams last season. Look for the revenge-minded Nets to rebound here, noting they've gone 25-10 ATS when playing on the road following an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.0 points on average in that situation. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
01-15-23 | Thunder +4.5 v. Nets | 112-102 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Brooklyn at 6:10 pm et on Sunday. It's going to take quite an effort to derail the Thunder given how they've been playing on this road trip. They check in off five straight ATS wins, knocking down 44 or more field goals in all five contests. In the same vein, they've held five straight opponents to fewer than 40 made field goals. Meanwhile, the Nets are adjusting to life without Kevin Durant once again. They've made good on 39 or fewer field goals in three straight games. While Brooklyn owns the better overall record this season, Oklahoma City has been the far better bet, going 27-16 ATS. Having won by 21 points on this floor last January there's no intimidation factor at play. Take Oklahoma City (8*). | |||||||
01-15-23 | Marist v. Niagara -5 | 66-64 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Marist at 12 noon et on Sunday. I'll lay the points with Niagara on Sunday as it looks to snap its two-game losing streak with a home date against suddenly streaking Marist. The Red Foxes actually check into this contest off consecutive wins - both coming in outright underdog fashion. Let's keep things in perspective, though. Marist is still 6-9 on the season and has faced just the 355th most difficult schedule in the nation (according to KenPom). It's not that Niagara has faced all that tough of a schedule either - 287th in terms of adjusted strength of schedule. However, the Purple Eagles have gone 9-7 and would be 10-6 were it not for a late collapse against a tough Siena squad on Friday. Despite facing the tougher schedule, Niagara has made one more field goal per game, on two fewer attempts per contest, compared to Marist this season. Defensively, the two teams are close to a wash, with the exception being from beyond the arc, where the Red Foxes have allowed three more made threes on six additional attempts per game. The last time these two teams met last March, it was no contest as Niagara rolled to an 83-52 victory. While this rematch isn't likely to be as lopsided, I'm still confident we see the Purple Eagles get the win and cover. Take Niagara (8*). | |||||||
01-14-23 | Celtics v. Hornets +8 | 122-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Boston at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I see this as an incredibly difficult spot for the Celtics to get up for as they look for their sixth straight victory after opening this road trip with a double-digit win in Brooklyn on Thursday. Keep in mind, Boston already took the first meeting between these two teams by a whopping 35 points back in late November. It catches Charlotte on a three-game losing streak and a woeful 1-6 SU over its last seven games. The Hornets actually haven't covered a spread in four games - the last time they did we were on board as they pulled off a stunning blowout win over the Bucks in Milwaukee. In stark contrast to the C's, the Hornets should have no trouble at all getting up for this front half of a two-game home set against Boston. Note that they'll be looking to avenge three straight losses suffered at the hands of the C's. While Boston is a long-term 87-119 ATS when coming off a road victory by 10 points or more, Charlotte is 199-156 ATS after losing at least two games in a row ATS. Noting that the Celtics are now without Jaylen Brown as he deals with an injury while the Hornets were without LaMelo Ball the last time these two teams squared off in November, I think we see a game that's closer than expected on Saturday. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
01-14-23 | Bucks +1.5 v. Heat | 95-111 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Miami at 1:10 pm et on Saturday. The Bucks dropped the front half of this two-game set in Miami on Thursday in what was essentially a throw-away game as they sat Giannis Antetokounmpo among others in an eventual six-point loss. That was a back-to-back situation off a win in Atlanta the night previous (which marked their second straight victory to open their current road trip). It should be a different story on Saturday as the Bucks look to take this opportunity to get right back at the Heat, who haven't won more than two games in a row since a four-game winning streak (that included victories over the lowly Rockets and Spurs) back in mid-December. Take Milwaukee (8*). | |||||||
01-13-23 | Thunder v. Bulls -4.5 | Top | 124-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Oklahoma City at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Thunder exercised some demons against the 76ers in Philadelphia last night, winning in convincing, blowout fashion as a considerable underdog (we won with Oklahoma City in that game as well). Here, I believe they'll be hard-pressed to duplicate that effort as they play the second of back-to-back nights against the Bulls in Chicago. Chicago is fresh off a 100-97 loss in Washington two nights ago to wrap up a brief 0-2 road trip. A return home should help the Bulls cause, noting that they're 11-9 SU at the United Center and will be looking for their third straight victory in the Windy City on Friday. Of course, the Bulls will likely be without Demar Derozan for a second straight game after he exited Monday's loss in Boston with an injured quad muscle. Zach Lavine suffered a hand contusion in Wednesday's loss in Washington but is expected to be good to go on Friday. While I'm certainly not banking on it, I do think this could be a 'load management' spot for Thunder superstar Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in a back-to-back situation. He has suited up for two back-to-backs previously this season but sat out the front half of the team's most recent two-game in two-night set on January 3rd. Note that the Thunder will be playing their seventh game in the last 11 nights, in five different cities on Friday night. While Oklahoma City did prevail last night in Philadelphia, that win snapped a six-game road losing streak. The Thunder are just 6-14 SU away from home this season. Also note that they're a miserable 3-14 ATS when coming off four or five wins in their last six games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 12.7 points in that situation. The Bulls are a long-term 121-90 ATS when coming off consecutive road losses. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
01-13-23 | Siena v. Niagara +2.5 | 70-64 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 29 m | Show | |
MAAC Game of the Week. My selection is on Niagara minus the points over Siena at 7 pm et on Friday. I like the spot for Niagara here as it returns home following a tough five-point road loss at Manhattan last time out. The Purple Eagles simply appeared to run out of gas following a hard-fought win at Fairfield two nights earlier. Here, I look for a much sharper performance as they look to take down still-undefeated in MAAC play Siena, which rides in on a six-game winning streak. Note that Niagara is undefeated at home this season, having gone a perfect 5-0. The Purple Eagles have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 13.0 points on this floor. Siena actually checks in having won outright as an underdog in three consecutive road games. It's a different story here as the Saints enter as the road favorite for the first time this season. While the two teams have faced similar schedules this season (according to KenPom only 11 places separate the two teams in terms of adjusted strength of schedule), Niagara has proven to be the tougher defensive team. The Purple Eagles are giving up three fewer made field goals per game on just one less attempt allowed on average compared to the Saints. Offensively is virtually a wash with Siena holding perhaps the slightest of edges. Take Niagara (10*). | |||||||
01-12-23 | Mavs -3 v. Lakers | 119-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Los Angeles at 10 pm et on Thursday. While the Lakers check in 5-1 over their last six games, I can't help but feel another slide is right around the corner. Their recent five-game winning streak had everything to do with their red hot shooting. They caught fire for a week or so but couldn't keep it going last time out as they connected on just 44% of their field goal attempts in a double-digit loss in Denver. I expect to see some carry-over effect from that poor performance here. Dallas checks in off consecutive losses, both SU and ATS, to open its current five-game road trip. No team wants to go winless in its two-game stop-over in Los Angeles, especially given the current vulnerable state of both the Clippers and Lakers. Here, we'll note that the Mavericks are 11-2 ATS when playing on the road off an upset loss away from home over the last three seasons. Dallas has outscored the opposition by an impressive average margin of 13.0 points in that situation. The Lakers continue to give up way too many easy buckets, having allowed 42 or more made field goals in an incredible 13 consecutive games. In stark contrast, Dallas has allowed just four of its last 10 opponents to knock down 42 or more field goals. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
01-12-23 | Bucks v. Heat -2.5 | Top | 102-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Miami minus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. This is a classic fade spot for the Heat as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a win in Atlanta last night. In fact, Milwaukee will be looking for third straight win to open its current road trip. However, in a back-to-back spot and knowing it will have another shot at the Heat here in South Beach on Saturday, I'm not convinced we see the Bucks best effort on Thursday. Miami was undermanned but prevailed by a single point against Oklahoma City two nights ago. Here, the Heat should have Bam Adebayo back on the floor as they look to secure a second straight victory. Despite the ATS loss against the Thunder, the Heat remain a solid 6-3 ATS over their last nine contests. They're just 6-14 ATS at home this season, laying inflated numbers on most nights, but that's not the case here. At the very least, the Heat have managed to outscore the opposition by 0.3 points on average on their home floor (which is more than can be said about the Bucks on the road, as you'll read below). Milwaukee has been a better bet on the road than the Heat have been at home, but it still just 8-10 ATS on the highway, where it has been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points. Note that Milwaukee has gone a woeful 21-37 ATS after winning four of its last five games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
01-11-23 | UC-Santa Barbara v. CS Bakersfield +9 | Top | 60-48 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
Big West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Cal State-Bakersfield plus the points over Cal-Santa Barbara at 10 pm et on Wednesday. In what projects as a low-scoring battle between these two Big West Conference foes, I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog home side. Bakersfield checks in off a blowout road loss at Cal-Davis but has managed to cover the spread in each of its last two home contests. Santa Barbara rides an eight-game winning streak into this one but failed to cover for the first time in its last six lined games in a five-point victory at Cal-Poly last time out. You would have to go back eight games to find the last time Bakersfield allowed an opponent to get off more than 52 field goal attempts. You would have to go back the same number of games to find the last time one of its opponents knocked down more than 22 field goals. It all adds up to a lot of tightly-contested affairs. The argument can certainly be made that Bakersfield is the better defensive team in this matchup, especially when you consider it has faced the 203rd most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom, compared to Santa Barbara which has gone against the 319th toughest slate of opponents by the same metric. Bakersfield has dropped the last two meetings in this series by 12 and 19 points but that's after the first four were each decided by seven points or less. Take Cal State-Bakersfield (10*). | |||||||
01-11-23 | Tulane v. SMU +5 | 97-88 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on SMU plus the points over Tulane at 8 pm et on Wednesday. While Tulane enters this game off three consecutive wins, both SU and ATS, SMU checks in off back-to-back losses, also SU and ATS. Both of those Mustang losses came in blowout fashion, but they came in matchups against tougher opponents than they'll face here on Wednesday. That's been the story for SMU for much of the campaign as it has faced a grueling schedule - the 34th toughest in the nation according to KenPom. Tulane, on the other hand, has made the most of the 292nd most difficult schedule in the country by the same metric. Despite the wide disparity in strength of schedule, SMU has actually managed to post very similar defensive numbers to those of Tulane while only lagging slightly from an offensive standpoint. With little to choose between these two teams, I'll gladly grab the generous helping of points with the home side. Take SMU (8*). | |||||||
01-11-23 | Pelicans +9.5 v. Celtics | 114-125 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. While most expected the Pelicans to take a nose-dive without Zion Williamson, that hasn't necessarily been the case. There was the 'shock to the system' game immediately following the Zion injury as the Pelicans fell by 15 points in Memphis. However, since then, they've lost by nine points against the red hot 76ers, won by 11 vs. Houston, lost by only six against the blistering Nets, lost by 10 against the Mavs in Dallas and most recently rolled to a 25-point rout of the Wizards. In other words, blowout losses have been few and far between. The Celtics aren't exactly setting the world on fire right now, in fact they're just 1-5 ATS over their last six games. This is actually a triple-revenge spot for the Pelicans as they've dropped all three meetings with the Celtics since the start of last season, including a 117-109 loss back in November. Here, we'll note that New Orleans is a solid 24-10 ATS after losing four or five of its last six games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Take New Orleans (8*). | |||||||
01-11-23 | New Hampshire v. Maine -3 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
America East Game of the Year. My selection is on Maine minus the points over New Hampshire at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Maine has lost five games in row entering this conference clash, yet two perhaps three of those five losses just as easily could have gone the Black Bears way. Maine has faced the 231st most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom - certainly not something to get too excited about. However, tonight's opponent, New Hampshire, has gone against the 329th toughest slate of opponents. The Wildcats are off a big outright underdog home win over Vermont as nine-point underdogs last time out. They've recorded back-to-back ATS wins just once this season, back in early December. Note that UNH is a miserable 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games following a win over an America East opponent, outscored by 5.3 points on average in that situation. Take Maine (10*). | |||||||
01-11-23 | Furman v. Mercer +7 | Top | 84-66 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Mercer plus the points over Furman at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this spot sets up for underdog Mercer, a team that's not all that accustomed to being in that role here at home. The Bears have lost four games in a row both SU and ATS but I fully expect them to bounce back here as they catch Furman off consecutive wins and covers, with the most recent coming on the road against East Tennessee State. Note that while Furman is 8-1 SU at home this season, it has only managed to split its eight road contests to date. Mercer is 4-3 on its home floor compared to 3-7 on the road. I'll also point out that Furman has faced the 313th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom - in other words, the Palladins have been padding their 12-5 record with a rather weak slate of opponents. I like the fact that despite facing the tougher schedule, the Bears have actually posted the better defensive numbers, allowing three fewer made field goals per game despite allowing just one less attempt per contest in comparison with the Palladins. You can be sure this is a game the Bears have had circled all season after dropping all three meetings with Furman last season. Take Mercer (10*). | |||||||
01-10-23 | Ball State v. Ohio -2.5 | 71-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on Ohio minus the points over Ball State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this spot sets up for Ohio at home as it looks to snap its brief two-game skid (both losses came on the road) at home against Ball State. The Cardinals are red hot - winners of seven straight games including two in a row ATS. However, they've faced the 271st toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. By contrast, Ohio has gone against the 181st most difficult slate of opponents by the same metric. I do feel the Bobcats can present a 'shock to the system' for the Cardinals as they like to push the pace, something Ball State certainly didn't see in a home game against Akron last time out. Here, we'll note that Ohio is an impressive 30-10 ATS when coming off consecutive road losses going all the way back to 1997. Take Ohio (8*). | |||||||
01-10-23 | Oklahoma State +5 v. Kansas State | Top | 57-65 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Big 12 Game of the Year. My selection is on Oklahoma State plus the points over Kansas State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Oklahoma State in an underdog role in Manhattan on Tuesday. The Cowboys check in just 9-6 on the season - a far cry from Kansas State's sterling 14-1 mark. However, Oklahoma State has faced the 24th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Kansas State ranks 87th in that department. In spite of that, the Cowboys have been the superior defensive team in my opinion, allowing two fewer made field goals on two more attempts per game compared to the Wildcats. It's rare that we see Kansas State win a game in this series by margin. You would have to go back seven meetings to find the the last time the Wildcats won by more than three points - all the way to February of 2019. On the heels of eight straight victories, the last three coming in ATS fashion as well including back-to-back upset wins at Texas and Baylor, I can't help but feel a letdown is in order for the Wildcats here. Take Oklahoma State (10*). | |||||||
01-09-23 | Florida A&M +16 v. Grambling State | 57-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida A&M plus the points over Grambling at 8 pm et on Monday. No team in the country has faced as tough of a schedule as Florida A&M this season according to KenPom so perhaps it's not surprising that it checks in sporting an ugly 2-11 record. The Rattlers have lost five games in a row SU and back-to-back contests ATS following a three-game ATS winning streak. Grambling on the other hand has won consecutive games to improve to 9-6 on the campaign. It has faced the 186th most difficult schedule in the country. Noting that Grambling has managed to get off 46, 51 and 53 field goal attempts over its last three contests. I believe it will be hard-pressed to cover such a lofty pointspread here. Take Florida A&M (8*). | |||||||
01-08-23 | Rider +6.5 v. Siena | Top | 63-68 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
MAAC Game of the Month. My selection is on Rider plus the points over Siena at 2 pm et on Sunday. I'll grab all the points I can get with the underdog Broncs here as they look to snap their brief two-game skid (they've lost three in a row ATS) on the road against Siena on Sunday afternoon. The Saints have reeled off five consecutive victories both SU and ATS, including four outright wins as short underdogs (+3.5 points or less). I simply like the way Rider has limited its opponents scoring opportunities, even in losing efforts over the last two games, with its last two foes getting off just 49 and 55 field goal attempts. Siena has allowed two of its last three opponents to hoist up 60 or more FG attempts. On the flip side, the Saints have topped out at 53 or less FG attempts in five of their last six contests, making them difficult to trust laying a considerable number of points here. Take Rider (10*). | |||||||
01-07-23 | Pelicans v. Mavs -7 | 117-127 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas minus the points over New Orleans at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Mavericks against the Zion-less Pelicans here, with the latter finding themselves in a difficult back-to-back situation off last night's six-point home loss to the Nets. New Orleans has cooled off considerably following a hot start to the campaign, going just 5-8 ATS over its last 13 contests. The Mavs have dropped the cash in three straight games heading in and got blown out by the Celtics on their home floor two nights ago. I look for them to turn the tide here, noting that they're 23-11 ATS when playing at home after scoring 105 points or less in their last game over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition buy 9.8 points on average in that spot. Take Dallas (8*). | |||||||
01-06-23 | Heat v. Suns +1.5 | 104-96 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Miami at 10:10 pm et on Friday. I believe this is a 'wrong team favored' situation as the Heat head to Phoenix on Friday night. Miami had its brief two-game winning streak snapped at the hands of the Lakers in Los Angeles two nights ago. Here, they'll face a desperate Suns squad that has lost four straight and seven of their last eight games overall. I do think Phoenix carries some confidence into this game as it gave Cleveland all it could handle in a 90-88 road loss two nights ago. The Suns have gone back to work defensively, holding four straight opponents to 82 or fewer field goal attempts and their last two foes to just 36 and 30 made field goals. Phoenix has undoubtedly had this rematch with Miami circled on its calendar after dropping a one-point decision in South Beach back in November. Here, we'll note that the Heat are a woeful 3-13 ATS when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 2.2 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Suns are 42-26 ATS when seeking revenge against an opponent over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 6.5 points on average in that spot. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
01-06-23 | Clippers +3.5 v. Wolves | 115-128 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Minnesota at 9:10 pm et on Friday. The Clippers got roasted by the Nuggets in Denver last night in a game that was never competitive. That makes it four consecutive losses for Los Angeles, three in a row ATS, but I look for it to bounce back on Friday night in Minnesota. The T'Wolves check in off two straight victories, which comes on the heels of six consecutive defeats. Minnesota is just 11-9 on its home floor this season, only outscoring foes by an average margin of 0.6 points. Off last night's less-than-taxing affair (Paul George played 13 minutes while Kawhi Leonard saw 18 minutes of floor time), look for the Clips to rebound here. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
01-06-23 | Hornets +11 v. Bucks | 138-109 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Bucks enter this game off consecutive wins both SU and ATS (we were on board for the first of those two victories) but they're just 2-3 ATS when laying double-digits this season and I expect them to have their hands full with the lowly Hornets on Friday night. Charlotte has lost three straight games both SU and ATS. Sometimes hitting the road isn't a bad thing and I believe that will be the case here after a 1-3 homestand. While Charlotte lost by 24 points against Memphis last time out, it's worth noting that it hasn't dropped consecutive games by double-digits since December 9th and 11th. That's only happened three times previously this season which is notable considering how many games the Hornets have lost (29). The Bucks are only outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.0 points this season and while that number grows to 8.3 points here at home, that's still considerably lower than the pointspread we're working with tonight. On the flip side, as bad as things have gone for the Hornets, they've been outscored by an average margin of 7.1 points and that number only rises to 7.3 points on the road. In five meetings between these two teams going back to the start of last season, Milwaukee won by double-digits only once. Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
01-06-23 | Knicks v. Raptors -3.5 | Top | 112-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Toronto minus the points over New York at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Raptors are coming off an absolutely dreadful offensive display against Milwaukee two nights ago as they shot worse than 33% from the field yet still somehow rallied to force overtime in an eventual three-point loss. They check into this game off consecutive SU and ATS losses but I'm confident they'll bounce back against the division-rival Knicks on Friday. Note that New York has won three games in a row but those victories all came against down-trodden squads in the Rockets, Suns and Spurs, with the last two coming on their home floor. They're still just 2-5-1 ATS over their last eight games. You would have to go back 12 meetings here in Toronto - all the way to 2015 - to find the last time they won a game in Toronto. While laying points with the Raptors given their current state seems a little dicey, they've managed to cover the spread in all but two of their 16 straight-up victories this season, and both of those wins still came by four or more points. While the Raps are as healthy as they've been all season, the Knicks are without one of their best players, R.J. Barrett. This is a critical six-game homestand for the Raptors as it will likely decide whether or not they'll be 'selling' at the trade deadline. All is not lost after dropping the opener, I look for them to bounce back here. Take Toronto (10*). | |||||||
01-05-23 | Washington +19 v. Arizona | 67-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington plus the points over Arizona at 11 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab all the points I can get with Washington in this spot as it hits the road off five consecutive home games (note that it has gone a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games following consecutive home contests) and looks to snap its three-game SU and ATS skid against red hot Arizona. The Wildcats have reeled off seven straight wins but they're just 1-1-1 ATS over their last three contests. Factoring in tonight's lofty pointspread, you would have to go all the way back to 2016 to find the last time Arizona covered a number this high at home against Washington. As talented as the Wildcats are, they're still just 6-7 ATS in lined games this season. I believe they're being asked to lay too many points here. Take Washington (8*). | |||||||
01-05-23 | Portland State +6.5 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 80-92 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
Big Sky Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Portland State plus the points over Eastern Washington at 9 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this one sets up for Portland State and perhaps more so as a fade of Eastern Washington, which rolls in on the heels of seven consecutive ATS wins. Portland State has won just once in its last five games although it was the underdog in all five contests so perhaps that was to be expected. The Vikings have faced the 54th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. By contrast, Eastern Washington has gone against the 131rd toughest slate of opponents. I like the consistency the Vikings have shown offensively, knocking down 29, 24, 26 and 23 field goals over their last four games while also limiting nine straight opponents to 58 or fewer field goal attempts. It's a different story for Eastern Washington, particularly at the defensive end of the floor as it has allowed three straight and four of its last five opponents to hoist up more than 60 field goal attempts. Portland State has lost five straight meetings in this series but three of those games were decided by five points or less and the other two were settled by eight points. I expect the Vikings to at the very least take this one down to the wire. Take Portland State (10*). | |||||||
01-05-23 | Southern Miss v. UL - Lafayette -1.5 | Top | 61-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Sun Belt Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Louisiana minus the points over Southern Miss at 8 pm et on Thursday. Color me unimpressed by Southern Miss' 13-2 record this season as it has faced the 316th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. The Golden Eagles ride into this game off consecutive victories while Louisiana has dropped each of its last three contests and four in a row ATS. Note that the Ragin' Cajuns have gone against the 175th toughest slate of opponents by the same strength of schedule metric. Louisiana owns a perfect 5-0 record at home this season where it has outscored opponents by just shy of 30.0 points per contest. This is obviously a tougher matchup although it's worth noting that Louisiana handled Southern Miss by 21 points in last season's lone meeting. Southern Miss started the season hot on the road but has now dropped two of its last three away from home, with the lone win coming as a -13.5-point favorite against Lamar. Take Louisiana (10*). | |||||||
01-05-23 | Purdue +1.5 v. Ohio State | 71-69 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Purdue plus the points over Ohio State at 7 pm et on Thursday. Simple bounce-back play supporting the Boilermakers here as they look to rebound after losing outright at home against Rutgers last time out. Purdue has now dropped the cash in eight straight games and faces an Ohio State squad that has won three games in a row both SU and ATS. I simply feel the Boilermakers are the better team at both ends of the floor and will prove it with a convincing victory on Thursday. Take Purdue (8*). | |||||||
01-05-23 | Maryland +6.5 v. Rutgers | 50-64 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show | |
My selection is on Maryland plus the points over Rutgers at 6:30 pm et on Thursday. I'll grab all the points I can get with Maryland here as it looks to snap a two-game ATS skid against a Rutgers squad that has won four in a row both SU and ATS. We missed the mark fading the Scarlet Knights last time out, but that was as big underdogs at Purdue. Off that upset victory, I do see fit to against Rutgers again here. Note that Maryland has faced the 100th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Rutgers checks in 179th by the same strength of schedule metric. The Terps shot a miserable 26.5% from the field in their last game - a blowout loss at Michigan. I don't think it will be difficult to put that uncompetitive affair behind them and rebound here. Take Maryland (8*). | |||||||
01-04-23 | Nets v. Bulls +5.5 | Top | 112-121 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Brooklyn at 8:10 pm et on Wednesday. The Nets look unstoppable right now having won 12 straight games. I don't think we'll see Chicago back down easily on Wednesday, however, noting that the Bulls already defeated the Nets in Brooklyn this season and have taken three of four matchups in this series going back to the start of last season. The Bulls are fresh off a tough overtime loss against the Cavs on Monday as Cleveland got an other-worldly performance from Donovan Mitchell. At 5-2-1 ATS over its last eight games, Chicago does continue to play well. Here, I think the Nets are in for a letdown after absolutely shooting the lights out (60% or better from the field) in consecutive games. While Chicago is just an even 9-9 on its home floor this season, it has managed to outscored the opposition by an average margin of 1.1 points. The Nets are 12-7 on the road but outscore opponents by just 1.9 points on average. I simply feel the Bulls are catching too many points here. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
01-04-23 | New Mexico State +2.5 v. Stephen F Austin | 60-69 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Mexico State plus the points over Stephen F. Austin at 7:30 pm et on Wednesday. This one sets up nicely for New Mexico State as it hits the road on the heels of consecutive losses SU and four in a row ATS. The sky is not falling for the Aggies, however, noting that they've faced an incredibly tough schedule this season - 58th most difficult in the nation according to KenPom. They're just 1-3 SU in true road games but 2-1-1 ATS with a pair of losses by three points or less. Stephen F. Austin is coming off four consecutive SU wins and two in a row ATS. Note that the Lumberjacks have faced the 284th toughest schedule in the country this season. They're a woeful 3-12 ATS when coming off two ATS wins in their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here. I like the fact that the Aggies, despite facing the much tougher schedule, have proven to be the better defensive team, holding opponents to the same number of made field goals per game (23) despite allowing five more field goal attempts per contest compared to SFA. Note that the road team took both meetings between these two squads last season. Take New Mexico State (8*). | |||||||
01-04-23 | Tulsa +13.5 v. Tulane | 77-93 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Tulsa plus the points over Tulane at 7 pm et on Wednesday. The wheels have come off for Tulsa lately as it checks in off three consecutive losses SU and riding an inexplicable 10-game ATS losing skid. I expect the Golden Hurricane to right the ship here, or at the very least give Tulane all it can handle. It's not as if the Green Wave have been rolling. They're just 2-10 ATS over their last 12 contests. While Tulsa hasn't exactly faced the best of the best, ranked 135th in the country in terms of strength of schedule according to KenPom, that's still far better than Tulane, which has faced the 311th most difficult slate of opponents. After getting blasted by 34 points as a short 3.5-point underdog against Tulane last year, I think we can count on Tulsa to bring its best effort here. Take Tulsa (8*). | |||||||
01-04-23 | Miami-FL v. Georgia Tech +6.5 | Top | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
ACC Game of the Month. My selection is on Georgia Tech plus the points over Miami at 7 pm et on Wednesday. I like the way this spot sets up for Georgia Tech as it looks to snap Miami's nine-game winning streak on Wednesday night. The Hurricanes roll in red hot off consecutive ATS wins, including an outright underdog win over Virginia and most recently a double-digit road victory against Notre Dame. Still, we'll note that the Canes have faced just the 132nd most difficult schedule in the country this season while Georgia Tech has gone against the 70th toughest slate of opponents (according to KenPom). The Yellow Jackets will obviously be amped up for this matchup as they check in off consecutive blowout home losses against Clemson and Virginia. Things won't get any easier after this game with road tilts against Florida State and Notre Dame on deck. This is undoubtedly a matchup the Jackets have had circled after dropping both matchups against the Canes last season. Of note, they were listed a just three-point underdogs in last year's home meeting with Miami. Georgia Tech is a long-term 79-53 ATS when coming off a game in which it scored 60 points or less, as is the case here, and also 81-52 ATS when following consecutive losses against conference opponents. Take Georgia Tech (10*). | |||||||
01-03-23 | San Jose State v. Boise State -10 | 64-67 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 42 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boise State minus the points over San Jose State at 9 pm et on Tuesday. We'll lay the points with the Broncos as they look to bounce back from consecutive losses (both came on the road) when they host San Jose State on Tuesday. Boise State has lost only four game this season and three of those came away from home. Here in Boise, the Broncos check in 5-1 on the campaign, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 20.4 points. San Jose State rolls in off six straight ATS victories, including three in a row straight-up. All records aren't created equal in college hoops, however, as we note that the Spartans have faced the 194th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. Boise State checks in having gone against the 103rd toughest slate of opponents. The Broncos closed as a 22-point favorite in this same matchup last season. While they failed to cover that lofty pointspread, they still won by a comfortable 16-point margin. Take Boise State (8*). | |||||||
01-03-23 | Virginia -5 v. Pittsburgh | 65-68 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
My selection is on Virginia minus the points over Pittsburgh at 9 pm et on Tuesday. We missed the mark fading Pittsburgh in its most recent game as it staged a furious second half rally in an eventual upset win over North Carolina. The Panthers have now reeled off nine consecutive ATS wins but I look for that streak to end here against Virginia. The Cavaliers snapped their seven-game ATS skid with an 18-point road win over Georgia Tech last time out. Note that Virginia has faced the 54th most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom and has certainly held its own going 10-2 SU, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.2 points along the way. Pitt, meanwhile, has faced the country's 140th toughest schedule and while its 7-1 home record is impressive, it is perhaps less so when you consider the victory over North Carolina was the first of note, with it falling by 25 points in its lone previous step-up game at home against West Virginia back in November. Take Virginia (8*). | |||||||
01-03-23 | Wizards v. Bucks -8 | 113-123 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Washington at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. Handicapping 101 dictates a play on the Bucks here as they host the Wizards in the second of a two-game set in Milwaukee after dropping Sunday's contest by 23 points (without Giannis in the lineup). The fact that Giannis was understandable as 'load management' came in to play following his 43-20 game in a win and cover against the T'Wolves two nights earlier. Milwaukee has admittedly struggled lately, losing five of its last six games, while the Wizards are riding a five-game winning streak. Here, we'll note though that the Wiz are 93-125 ATS when coming off an outright victory as a road underdog going all the way back to 1996. Worse still, they're 20-40 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit win as an underdog over the same stretch, outscored by an average margin of 10.7 points in that situation. Despite their recent struggles, the Bucks remain a stellar 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.2 points on average. Take Milwaukee (8*). | |||||||
01-03-23 | LSU v. Kentucky -9 | 71-74 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Kentucky minus the points over LSU at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Kentucky enters this contest riding an inexplicable 0-7 ATS skid but the Wildcats are favored by a considerable margin for good reason as they host LSU. The Tigers check in off an outright underdog win at Arkansas, snapping a three-game ATS losing streak of their own. Note that LSU has faced the 328th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. While Kentucky hasn't exactly faced a grueling slate, it has gone against the 169th toughest set of opponents. Here, we'll note that Kentucky has outscored the opposition by an average margin of 10.2 points when playing at home after losing consecutive games ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here. Take Kentucky (8*). | |||||||
01-03-23 | Ohio v. Buffalo +1.5 | Top | 72-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
MAC Game of the Year. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Ohio at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I really like the way this one sets up for Buffalo as it looks to rebound after suffering losses in three of its last four games. There's really no shame in that slide as the three losses came against Tulane, West Virginia and Michigan State with none of those contests coming at home. Even against Tulane the Bulls were seven-point underdogs. All told, Buffalo has faced the 23rd most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Ohio has gone against the 196th toughest slate of opponents. In spite of that, Ohio is just 2-5 on the road while Buffalo checks in 4-1 on its home floor. This is undoubtedly a game the Bulls have had circled since dropping last year's matchup against the Bobcats by an ugly 74-53 score as a 2.5-point home favorite. In fact, Ohio has taken the last two meetings between these MAC schools but that's its longest win streak in this series since winning seven in a row over the Bulls from 2011 to 2014. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
01-03-23 | Marquette v. St. John's +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Big East Game of the Month. My selection is on St. John's plus the points over Marquette at 6:30 pm et on Tuesday. The Red Storm got off to a hot start this season but check into this matchup on the heels of three straight losses both SU and ATS. Shooting woes have cost them lately but I look for them to get that straightened out against Marquette on Tuesday. While the Golden Eagles have been terrific this season and check in off consecutive victories, including an outright underdog win at Villanova last time out, it's worth noting that they're still just an even 3-3 on the road (they've suffered only four losses the entire season so that's notable). Meanwhile, St. John's is 8-1 at home and will be eager to erase the memory of an 84-79 loss to Xavier the last time it took the floor here on December 28th. Note that the Red Storm are 20-8 ATS when playing at home after losing six or seven of their last eight games ATS going all the way back to 1997, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.6 points in that spot. Take St. John's (10*). | |||||||
01-02-23 | Rutgers v. Purdue -7 | Top | 65-64 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
Big Ten Game of the Month. My selection is on Purdue minus the points over Rutgers at 7 pm et on Monday. The Boilermakers have been absolutely burning bettors for over a month now, going 0-6-1 ATS over their last seven contests going all the way back to November 30th. I expect that slump to end here, however, as they host seemingly red hot Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have reeled off three straight wins both SU and ATS but streaks aren't all created equal. Note that Rutgers has faced the 249th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. That's in stark contrast to Purdue, which has gone against the 128th most difficult slate of opponents. Both teams are coming off consecutive glorified scrimmages against overmatched opponents. Here, I can't help but feel Rutgers is in for a 'shock to its system' after getting off 67 and 75 field goal attempts in its last two games and now facing a Purdue squad that allows just 56 FG attempts per contest here at home this season. Take Purdue (10*). | |||||||
01-01-23 | USC v. Washington State -1 | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Washington State minus the points over USC at 3 pm et on Sunday. We won with Washington State in an underdog role on Friday as they fell just a point short of pulling the upset against UCLA. I won't hesitate to come right back with them on Sunday as they stay at home to host USC, which rides a seven-game SU and three-game ATS winning streak, including a double-digit win at Washington on Friday. We'll note again that the Cougars have faced the 20th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. USC has gone against the 128th toughest slate of opponents. Look for Washington State to snap its three-game skid on Sunday. Take Washington State (8*). | |||||||
12-31-22 | Northern Colorado v. Idaho State | 83-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
My selection is on Northern Colorado over Idaho State at 8 pm et on Saturday. I'll back the Bears as they look to snap their three-game SU and two-game ATS losing streaks on Saturday. Idaho State checks in off consecutive ATS wins, including a 26-point rout of Northern Arizona last time out. Keep in mind, it has faced the 275th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom while Northern Colorado has gone against the 57th toughest slate of opponents. This is a true 'get right' spot for the Bears but isn't being priced like it at all. Take Northern Colorado (8*). | |||||||
12-31-22 | Cal-Riverside v. Long Beach State -2 | 73-72 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Long Beach State minus the points over Cal-Riverside at 6 pm et on Saturday. We'll back Long Beach State to bounce back here off a tough two-point loss against Cal-San Diego last time out - its second straight ATS defeat. Riverside enters off consecutive wins, both SU and ATS and has faced the slightly tougher schedule this season according to KenPom (seven places higher than LBSU). However, the 49ers have done a considerably better job defensively, allowing just one more made field goal per game on six additional attempts on average. LBSU has also been better offensively, getting off three more field goal attempts per game and making good on all three. Take Long Beach State (8*). | |||||||
12-31-22 | New Mexico v. Wyoming +3.5 | Top | 76-75 | Win | 100 | 7 h 7 m | Show |
Mountain West Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Wyoming plus the points over New Mexico at 4 pm et on Saturday. Wyoming has more than just held its own against New Mexico in recent years, taking three of four meetings between these two teams since the start of the 2020-21 season. Here, the Cowboys will look to hand the Lobos their first loss of the season, and I'm confident they'll do just that on Saturday afternoon in Laramie. Note that Wyoming enters this game off three consecutive losses both SU and ATS. None of those games were played at home, where the Cowboys have reeled off consecutive wins (both SU and ATS), scoring more than 90 points on each occasion. New Mexico is a perfect 13-0 SU on the campaign and rides a three-game ATS winning streak into this showdown. However, the Lobos have only faced the 264th most difficult schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. For comparison's sake, Wyoming has faced the 185th toughest slate of opponents. Take Wyoming (10*). | |||||||
12-31-22 | St. Thomas v. South Dakota State -4 | 64-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Dakota State minus the points over St. Thomas at 3 pm et on Saturday. We successfully faded St. Thomas two nights ago as it dropped the cash for the first time in five games in a loss at South Dakota. Here, we'll fade the overvalued side again as it stays on the road to face South Dakota State. Note that St. Thomas checks in having faced the 338th toughest schedule in the nation this season. There's no comparison between these two teams in that regard as South Dakota State has gone against the 21st most difficult slate of opponents this season. You would have to go back five lined games, all the way to December 3rd, to find the last time South Dakota State covered the spread. That changes here. Take South Dakota State (8*). | |||||||
12-31-22 | North Carolina-Asheville v. Winthrop -1.5 | 60-62 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Winthrop minus the points over UNC-Asheville at 2 pm et on Saturday. These two teams check in with opposite records on the campaign but not all records are created equal in college hoops with a large discrepancy in strength of schedule often in place. That's the case here as Asheville has faced the 255th toughest schedule in the country on its way to a 9-5 record while Winthrop has gone 5-9 facing the country's 75th most difficult slate of opponents. Winthrop enters this game riding a four-game losing streak but all four of those setbacks came on the road. Here, it catches UNC-Asheville in a prime letdown spot off a four-point home win (as a -1.5-point favorite) against Radford. We'll lay the short number with the Eagles. Take Winthrop (8*). | |||||||
12-31-22 | Longwood v. Campbell +2 | 67-42 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 17 m | Show | |
My selection is on Campbell plus the points over Longwood at 2 pm et on Saturday. We'll fade Longwood as it hits the road on the heels of three consecutive ATS victories on Saturday. Note that it has faced the 327th toughest schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom. Campbell on the other hand has gone against the 262nd most difficult slate of opponents and is in a prime bounce-back spot here off three consecutive losses (two in a row ATS), returning home following an outright loss as a short road favorite at Presbyterian (it lost that game by only four points). Campbell's last two opponents have shot the lights out but that's unlikely here as Longwood as knocked down less than 43% of its field goal attempts in four of its last five games. Take Campbell (8*). | |||||||
12-31-22 | Western Illinois v. South Dakota -2.5 | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 5 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Dakota minus the points over Western Illinois at 2 pm et on Saturday. We won with South Dakota two nights ago as it rolled to a win over St. Thomas. Here, I believe it faces another overvalued side in Western Illinois, which has faced the 307th toughest schedule in the country this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, South Dakota has gone against the 132nd most difficult slate of opponents. The victory and cover over St. Thomas was South Dakota's first victory, SU or ATS, in its last five contests. I expect it to use that win as a jumping-off point here. Western Illinois checks in off consecutive ATS victories but lost by seven points at South Dakota State two nights back. Look for South Dakota to improve to a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings in this series on Saturday. Take South Dakota (8*). | |||||||
12-30-22 | UCLA v. Washington State +8.5 | Top | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
Pac-12 Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington State plus the points over UCLA at 11 pm et on Friday. We'll grab all the points we can get with Washington State in this Pac-12 matchup as the Cougars look to snap their two-game skid - which represents their longest losing streak of the season. Washington State has fallen out of favor with bettors on the heels of three consecutive ATS losses, but I simply feel they're catching too many points here. UCLA has won eight straight games, including three in a row ATS heading in. The Bruins current three-game ATS win streak includes victories over Maryland and Kentucky but I can't help but feel that leaves them overvalued here. Note that while UCLA has faced a tough schedule - 69th most difficult in the nation according to KenPom - Washington State has gone against the 38th toughest. Take Washington State (10*). | |||||||
12-30-22 | Blazers -2.5 v. Warriors | Top | 112-118 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. The Warriors have inexplicably gone on a three-game winning streak without a number of key contributors including Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins but I look for that run to end here against the Blazers. Portland snapped a three-game losing streak with a home win over Charlotte last time out. This is undoubtedly a game the Blazers have had circled after dropping all three meetings with the Warriors last season, including a 132-95 home loss in their most recent matchup last February. The Warriors have actually allowed their opponents to get off 94, 92 and 91 field goal attempts over the course of their three-game winning streak. Those three opponents just haven't been able to make good on their wealth of opportunities. I don't expect the Blazers to suffer a similar fate tonight. Portland 'got right' offensively last time out, knocking down 43-of-86 FG attempts and should keep it rolling here. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
12-30-22 | Coppin State +26 v. Rutgers | 57-90 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My selection is on Coppin State plus the points over Rutgers at 8 pm et on Friday. I'm not convinced this is the easy layup most are projecting for Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights have delivered consecutive ATS wins and that's notable as they've yet to reel off three straight ATS wins at any point this season. Coppin State comes off consecutive ATS losses - also marking its longest such streak of the season. Here, we'll note that Coppin State has faced the 49th most difficult schedule in the nation this season according to KenPom. In stark contrast, Rutgers has gone against the 212th toughest slate. Take Coppin State (8*). | |||||||
12-30-22 | Suns v. Raptors -2 | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Toronto minus the points over Phoenix at 7:40 pm et on Friday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Raptors here as they take the court at home for the second time in as many nights off a less-than-competitive affair against the Grizzlies last night. They're catching the Suns without Devin Booker which is obviously a positive for the hometown Raps. Phoenix has won just four of its last 13 games, largely due to a number of key injuries and off a 25-point rout in Washington, I don't expect it to pick itself up off the mat on Friday. Take Toronto (8*). | |||||||
12-30-22 | North Carolina -5.5 v. Pittsburgh | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 37 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Carolina minus the points over Pittsburgh at 12 noon et on Friday. The Pitt Panthers enter this game riding an incredible eight-game ATS winning streak but I expect it to end here against the mighty Tar Heels of North Carolina. The Tar Heels have faced the much tougher schedule this season - 14th most difficult in the nation according to KenPom. In stark contrast, the Panthers have faced the 199th toughest schedule. North Carolina failed to deliver the cash last time out but just missed in a four-point victory (as a 5.5-point favorite) against Michigan. I expect a more straight-forward result on Friday. Take North Carolina (8*). | |||||||
12-29-22 | Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -2 | 50-46 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show | |
My selection is on North Texas minus the points over Florida Atlantic at 8 pm et on Thursday. This is a 'shock to the system' spot for Florida Atlantic as it hits the road for the first time since December 4th, riding a 10-game winning streak (9-0 ATS) and facing one of the best defensive teams in the country in North Texas. The Mean Green Eagles are hot as well, winners of five straight games and two in a row ATS. You would have to go all the way back to November 13th - UNT's first game of the season - to find the last time it allowed an opponent to make good on 20 or more field goals. Also note that North Texas has faced the far tougher schedule according to KenPom - 146th compared to 285th - in this matchup. The Owls winning streak grinds to a halt here. Take North Texas (8*). | |||||||
12-29-22 | St. Thomas v. South Dakota +1.5 | Top | 84-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on South Dakota plus the points over St. Thomas at 8 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way this sets up as a bounce-back spot for South Dakota as it enters off a stunningly-poor offensive effort against UMKC. USD has now dropped four games in a row both SU and ATS after opening the campaign with five victories in its first eight contests. St. Thomas on the other hand rolls in riding a four-game winning streak, both SU and ATS. It won its most recent road game by a 76-70 score at Idaho State. Here, we'll note that St. Thomas has yet to register consecutive road victories this season. Meanwhile, South Dakota has outscored opponents by an average margin of 9.1 points in its last nine home games when coming off an upset loss, as is the case here. Take South Dakota (10*). | |||||||
12-29-22 | Clippers v. Celtics -6 | 110-116 | Push | 0 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Clippers have been one of the best bets in the league in recent weeks but we'll fade them here as they head to Boston off consecutive ATS victories on their current five-game road trip. Note that the Celtics are hot as well, winners of three straight games both SU and ATS. I don't think there's any letdown in order for the C's here as they dropped their lone previous matchup with the Clippers this season by a whopping 20 points in Los Angeles. With the Clips having allowed their last three opponents to make good on 47, 44 and 43 field goals, I think the Celtics are catching them at the right time here. Boston cleaned things up defensively last time out, holding Houston to just 38 made field goals on 95 attempts. On the flip side, the C's have knocked down 44, 50 and 43 field goals over their last three contests. Look for them to keep rolling on Thursday. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
12-29-22 | Providence v. Butler -1.5 | 72-52 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Butler minus the points over Providence at 6:30 pm et on Thursday. While Providence is the hotter team right now, there's actually only two games separating these two teams this season, despite the fact that Butler has faced the far more difficult schedule (according to KenPom). While Providence has faced the 294th most difficult schedule so far, Butler checks in having gone against the 40th toughest slate. Here, we'll fade the Friars as they come off a 103-point effort against Marquette - their fifth consecutive SU and ATS victory. Butler is in a prime bounce-back spot at home after losing its last two games, with both of those defeats coming in blowout fashion. Take Butler (8*). | |||||||
12-27-22 | Hornets +4.5 v. Warriors | 105-110 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on Charlotte plus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the banged-up Warriors off their stunning Christmas Day rout of the Grizzlies as a 7.5-point underdog. While they do catch the Hornets in a back-to-back spot, Charlotte is off a double-digit loss in Portland. I like the way the Hornets have been pushing the envelope offensively, hoisting up 92 or more field goal attempts in eight straight games entering Tuesday's contest. It's been a much different story defensively, but I do think they're well-positioned here with the undermanned Warriors having made good on 43 or fewer field goals in seven straight games and Sunday's 91-FG attempt performance marking a four-game high (they had gotten off 81, 74 and 83 FG attempts in their previous three contests). Simply put, it's difficult to win by margin when you're only attempting 80-83 FG attempts per game, especially against a team like the Hornets that will find its offensive opportunities regardless (they've scored over 100 points in 11 straight games). Take Charlotte (8*). | |||||||
12-27-22 | Knicks +5.5 v. Mavs | 121-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York plus the points over Dallas at 8:40 pm et on Tuesday. I like the way this one sets up for the Knicks as they look to snap their three-game losing streak in Dallas on Tuesday night. New York has been quite efficient offensively, despite its recent losing ways, knocking down 42 or more field goals in four straight games entering this contest. They lost at home against the 76ers on Christmas Day despite limiting Philadelphia to only 77 field goal attempts while getting off 90 themselves. I expect a reversal of fortunes here noting that the Mavericks are fresh off a nine-point win (and cover) over the Lakers on Christmas Day, getting off a four-game high 84 FG attempts while holding Los Angeles to a six-game low 80 in that affair. Dallas took the first meeting between these two teams this season by 21 points in New York earlier this month. New York had swept the two-game series last season, winning those contests by 23 and 30-point margins. Take New York (8*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |