Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-25-21 | South Alabama v. San Diego -2 | 68-67 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Diego minus the points over South Alabama at 1:30 pm et on Thursday. We won with South Alabama last week but that was as a big underdog against Alabama. Here, the Jaguars are only catching a couple of points against San Diego and I believe the line will prove to be too short. Since consecutive narrow losses (and covers) against Wichita State and Alabama we've seen South Alabama take its frustrations out on the likes of Mobile and William Carey. While South Alabama has a couple of high-profile losses on its resume, San Diego has faced the tougher overall schedule, including games against Nevada, Cal and Cal-Riverside. It has managed to go 3-2 so far but checks in off a tough two-point loss to Cal-State Fullerton (as a 6.5-point favorite). The Toreros have proven to be an excellent three-point and free throw shooting team in the early going this season and I suspect that will be the difference against a South Alabama squad that has padded its stats on both ends of the floor against weaker competition. Take San Diego (8*). | |||||||
11-24-21 | Sam Houston State v. SMU -14 | 66-75 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My selection is on SMU minus the points over Sam Houston State at 7 pm et on Wednesday. Tough spot for Sam Houston State here as it faces a SMU squad that will be in a foul mood after suffering back-to-back upset losses against Missouri and Loyola-Marymount. Keep in mind, Sam Houston State already has 22 and 13-point losses against Missouri State and Boston University respectively on its resume this season. While it has managed to post a 2-3 record, one of those victories came against little-known Letourneau. SMU opened the season with three wins in its first four games with the lone defeat coming at the hands of a quality Oregon squad, on the road no less. Off an 0-2 tournament showing, the Mustangs will be happy to be back home where they're a perfect 3-0 with all three victories coming by at least 17 points this season. Sam Houston State has yet to shoot better than 42.7% in a game this season and will have a miserable time trying to keep up on Wednesday night. Take SMU (9*). | |||||||
11-23-21 | Nuggets +6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Northwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Tuesday. I can understand the logic behind bettors lining up to back the Blazers in this 'revenge' spot at home after suffering a 29-point loss in Denver earlier this month. In fact, Portland is in a 'triple-revenge' spot having dropped three straight meetings in this series going back to last June's playoff series. With that being said, with our without Nikola Jokic, I look for the Nuggets to at the very least take this one down to the wire. We fell just short fading the Blazers in their last game - also as a home favorite against the undermanned 76ers. Philadelphia kept that game close throughout but ultimately missed the cover thanks to a couple of made free throws in the closing seconds. Close wins have been the Blazers calling card here at home in recent years. They enter this contest riding a season-high three-game winning streak. Meanwhile, the Nuggets have lost a season-high four in a row, including a lopsided defeat in Phoenix on Sunday. Consecutive stinkers haven't been commonplace when it comes to Denver, however. Note that the Nuggets are 14-4 ATS the last 18 times they've come off four ATS losses in their last five games, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.1 points on average in that situation. I mentioned the 'revenge' angle earlier. Well, the Blazers have actually been outscored by 1.5 points on average the last 76 times they've been in a 'revenge' spot against an opponent. Also note that Portland has only managed to outscore the opposition by an average margin of 0.2 points after winning four or five of its last six games ATS over the last 2+ seasons (38-game sample size). Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
11-23-21 | Illinois -10.5 v. Kansas State | 72-64 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show | |
My selection is on Illinois minus the points over Kansas State at 7 pm et on Tuesday. I like this as a 'get right' spot for the Illini after dropping back-to-back games as sizeable favorites. Unlike their last two games, which came against the likes of Marquette and Cincinnati, I believe the Illini will be able to overwhelm a Kansas State squad that possesses a rather limited offense on Tuesday night. Kansas State is off to a 2-1 start to the season but has yet to post an ATS victory. The Wildcats have succeeded thanks to facing opponents that boasted subpar offenses themselves. This will certainly be KSU's toughest matchup to date against an Illini team that shot a ridiculously low 28% from the field in Monday's rout at the hands of Cincinnati. One thing that has stayed true for the Illini through four games has been their stout defensive play. Opponents that average 42.4% shooting on the season are shooting just 37.4% against them. Look for the Wildcats to fall behind early and struggle to find a way back in the game, noting that the Illini have gone 16-6 ATS the last 22 times they've come off a game in which they shot 33% or worse from the field, as is the case here. Take Illinois (10*). | |||||||
11-22-21 | Valparaiso +7 v. Jacksonville State | Top | 78-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
CBB Tournament Game of the Month. My selection is on Valparaiso plus the points over Jacksonville State at 8 pm et on Monday (game was delayed due to leak in the roof). Valpo is still looking for its first victory as the Beacons (formerly the Crusaders). I think it has a shot at getting it on Monday, however. Off a narrow missed cover as a road underdog against Stanford, here we'll note that Valpo has gone an incredible 43-15 ATS in its last 58 games when coming off a double-digit road loss. The Beacons are also 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after allowing 60 points or less going back over the last 2+ seasons. Considering the Beacons don't have a lot of returning talent I see it as a positive that they've shot better than 41% from the field in each of their first three games this season. Jacksonville State is off to a 1-2 start with two of its three games decided by four points or less. Note that it is shooting just 67% from the free throw line and has benefited from facing three opponents that have been ice cold from the field (yes, JSU's defense has contributed to that but still). Note that JSU has been outscored by an average margin of 1.3 points after losing two of its last three games dealing with a 123-game sample size. Take Valparaiso (10*). | |||||||
11-20-21 | 76ers +6 v. Blazers | 111-118 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The 76ers finally snapped their five-game losing streak with a blowout win in Denver two nights ago. I look for them to build off that performance here. Keep in mind, it's not as if the Sixers were getting completely outclassed during their slide. Four of their five losses came by single-digit margins while the other was an obvious outlier in Utah - a game in which they allowed the Jazz to shoot 51.7% from the field while knocking down just 36.7% of their own shots. Portland is coming off consecutive wins on its current homestand but not surprisingly both were close, by five-point margins. That's been the Blazers calling card here at home in recent years. Here, we'll note that Philadelphia checks in 18-5 ATS when coming off five or six ATS losses in their last seven games over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 9.6 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Blazers are 2-11 ATS when playing at least a third consecutive home game, outscored by 3.1 points on average in that situation. Take Philadelphia (8*). | |||||||
11-18-21 | UAB -2.5 v. South Carolina | 63-66 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
My selection is on UAB minus the points over South Carolina at 7 pm et on Thursday. UAB is a team that's flying under the radar but boasts a ton of upside in head coach Andy Kennedy's second season at the helm. The Blazers have gotten off to a perfect 3-0 start, laying waste to the likes of UNC-Asheville, Morehead State and little known Rhodes College. I think they'll welcome the opportunity for this measuring stick game against an SEC foe - even if it is a lower-tier squad from the conference in South Carolina. The Blazers were always going to be a tough defensive team, applying intense pressure on the opposition and we've certainly seen that in the early going as they've forced an incredible 67 turnovers through three games. It's the UAB offense that was the biggest question mark heading into the season after a tough campaign in that regard. Well, early returns are positive as the Blazers have put up 102, 85 and 98 points, shooting better than 48% from the field in all three contests. While they are taking a step up in class here, I think the Blazers will be up for it. South Carolina underwent a tear-down of sort in the offseason, looking to put an awful Covid-tinged 2020-21 campaign behind it. The Gamecocks should be better this season but how much better remains to be seen. They're off to a 2-1 start with the loss coming as a six-point favorite against Princeton. The South Carolina offense has a lot of new pieces to work in, and so far we're seeing some growing pains. Note that the Gamecocks turned the ball over a whopping 24 times last time out against Western Kentucky. If they're careless with the basketball again in this one, the Blazers will make them pay. Take UAB (10*). | |||||||
11-17-21 | UC-Davis +2 v. Pepperdine | 67-72 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Davis plus the points over Pepperdine at 10 pm et on Wednesday. If you've followed my plays this season you know that I'm high on Cal-Davis. We backed it in last week's eventual eight-point victory over Eastern Washington that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicated. Some won while some didn't on that game thanks to some considerable line movement over the course of the day. Here, I believe the Aggies are well-positioned to stage the 'upset' against Pepperdine. The Waves are one of the more overrated teams in college basketball as far as I'm concerned. They've gone 1-2 ATS through three games with their lone victory coming against an offensively-challenged Idaho State squad. The Waves aren't shooting the ball well, nor are they defending well - not overly surprising given their lack of returning talent. Off a disheartening double-digit overtime loss against Utah Valley State, I'm not convinced we see Pepperdine pick itself up off the mat here. Take Cal-Davis (8*). | |||||||
11-17-21 | Northern Colorado v. Texas -20.5 | 49-62 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
My selection is on Texas minus the points over Northern Colorado at 8:30 pm et on Wednesday. I think Northern Colorado, while boasting plenty of talent - particularly at the offensive end of the floor - is quite simply in the wrong place at the wrong time on Wednesday night. Texas is coming off a tough 12-point loss against arguably the best team in the country in Gonzaga. That comes on the heels of a win and cover as a whopping 37.5-point favorite in the Longhorns season-opener against Houston Baptist. I'm confident we'll see the 'Horns get right back on track here as the Bears up-tempo style should play right into their hands. Northern Colorado simply doesn't have the same level of talent and athleticism that Texas boasts up and down its lineup. When these two teams last faced each other two years ago we saw Texas roll to a 24-point victory as a 16.5-point favorite. I'm not convinced the gap between the two programs has narrowed at all since, keeping in mind Northern Colorado already has a loss against the likes of Hawaii-Hilo under its belt this season. Texas takes full advantage of this 'get right' spot at home. Take Texas (8*). | |||||||
11-17-21 | Tulane v. Florida State -18 | 54-59 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Florida State minus the points over Tulane at 8 pm et on Wednesday. I love the way this spot sets up for the Seminoles as they come off a disappointing blowout loss against rival Florida on Sunday. Tulane just doesn't have the size or talent to keep pace with Florida State here. Keep in mind, the 'Noles opened the season by scoring 105 points in a 35-point rout of Penn. They simply had an off day shooting the basketball on Sunday. The good news is, their defense did hold up for a second straight game - they've now held both opponents to sub-39% shooting this season. The Green Wave are not surprisingly off to a wildly inconsistent start, only managing to split their first two games, both at home, as considerable favorites against Southeast Louisiana and Southern. The fact that they only managed to put up 70 points in both of those contests doesn't bode well as they take a big step up in class here on Tuesday. Take Florida State (8*). | |||||||
11-17-21 | Wizards v. Hornets | Top | 87-97 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. Bettors seem hesitant to buy into the Hornets, despite their current three-game winning streak, having most recently taken down the red hot Golden State Warriors on Sunday. Perhaps that shouldn't come as a surprise as Charlotte is just a week removed from a five-game losing streak. Here, I look for the Hornets to 'handle their business' in a home game against the improved and streaking Wizards. Washington checks into this game off five straight wins. Keep in mind, the Wizards were favored in four of those games and the other was a pk'em. Here, we'll note that the Wiz are long-term losers when playing on the road off three ATS wins in their last four games, as is the case here, having gone 82-115 ATS. They're also a miserable 174-219 ATS when coming off consecutive straight-up victories. These two teams met three times last season with Washington winning only once (but not covering) and that victory came at home. To find the last time the Wiz won a game here in Charlotte you would have to go all the way back to 2017. Take Charlotte (10*). | |||||||
11-16-21 | Tarleton St v. Wichita State -12.5 | 51-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
My selection is on Wichita State minus the points over Tarleton State at 8 pm et on Tuesday. Tarleton State has been given a lot of respect from the betting marketplace in the early going this season following a promising 2020-21 campaign - its first in Division I - not to mention the presence of legendary head coach Billy Gillespie. The Texans have already faced Stanford and Kansas and managed to go 1-0-1 ATS. They'll also go up against Michigan and Gonzaga in road tilts later this month. Note that the Texans turned the ball over just eight times and managed to shoot better than 40% from the field (an accomplishment given the level of opposition) against Kansas last time out but still lost by 26 points. Meanwhile, Wichita State is off to a 2-0 start but has gone 0-2 ATS, defeating Jacksonville State and South Alabama by a combined margin of only nine points. We've certainly yet to see the best from the Shockers - at either end of the floor. They've shot sub-39% in both games while allowing subpar opposition to shoot better than 42% in both contests. This is a Wichita State program that went through plenty of distractions last offseason and by all accounts 2020-21 should have been a down season, yet the Shockers ended up exceeding expectations and receiving an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. They certainly have their sights set on another NCAA Tournament berth this season and have the returning talent to reach that goal. This is a good opportunity for them to ramp up before the schedule gets a whole lot tougher with an opening round matchup against Arizona up next in the Roman Main Event Tournament in Las Vegas on Friday. After that tournament they'll face the likes of Missouri, Oklahoma State and Kansas State in consecutive games, with the latter matchup coming in another early season tournament. Take Wichita State (10*). | |||||||
11-16-21 | South Alabama +23.5 v. Alabama | 68-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on South Alabama plus the points over Alabama at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. With Alabama off to a perfect 2-0 start, both SU and ATS, cashing in a much lower pointspread range than we're working with tonight, this looks like the ideal time to step in and fade the Crimson Tide against an underrated South Alabama squad. The Jaguars are pegged by many to be a top-three team in the Sun Belt Conference this season, with a wealth of talent coming in by way of transfers, as is often the case under head coach Richie Riley. Riley apparently turned down a head coaching offer from Utah State in the offseason, which obviously would have been a higher-profile position. I don't really blame him as he's building something special at USA and might have his most talented team yet here in his fourth year at the helm. Alabama obviously boasts much loftier goals than USA. However, the Crimson Tide do have plenty of losses to deal with from last season's impressive squad. They've gotten off to a blistering start at the offensive end of the floor, shooting 50% and 49% in scoring 93 and 104 points against Louisiana Tech and South Dakota State, respectively, but I expect them to run into a bit more trouble against South Alabama and its predominantly zone defense. South Alabama has to feel pretty good about itself after suffering a narrow six-point loss against likely NCAA Tournament squad Wichita State, on the road no less, last time out. The Jaguars would love nothing more than to pick up an early season marquee victory, even if it is highly unlikely here. Nothing that they've gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a road underdog, we'll simply count on them to stay inside the lofty pointspread as I think a lot of bettors are sleeping on the Jags at this early stage of the campaign. Take South Alabama (8*). | |||||||
11-15-21 | Southern Utah +11 v. St. Mary's | Top | 51-70 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 49 m | Show |
CBB Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on Southern Utah plus the points over St. Mary's at 10 pm et on Monday. St. Mary's is poised to take a step forward after a rare down year in 2020-21 but it certainly can't afford to sleep on a Southern Utah squad that went 20-4 last season and brings pretty much everyone that matters back into the fold. The Thunderbirds are coming off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite at Dixie State, however, and with that in mind, I feel they're undervalued in this matchup against what has long been considered a 'name brand' program in St. Mary's. This game will feature a sharp contrast in styles as Southern Utah boasts an explosive offense and will look to push the pace. St. Mary's is more adept at slowing things down. The Gaels look to eliminate passing lanes and force turnovers at the defensive end of the floor. I'm not convinced they'll have an easy time doing so against a seasoned Thunderbirds squad that excels on dribble handoffs and driving to the basket. Note that St. Mary's has only outscored opponents by 6.9 points on average when coming off consecutive wins over the last 2+ seasons (26-game sample size). That's close to where I feel this line should be sitting but with the Gaels 2-0 off back-to-back comfortable wins and Southern Utah fresh off the aforementioned upset loss to little-known Dixie State, we're being given a fairly generous cushion. Take Southern Utah (10*). | |||||||
11-13-21 | Evansville v. Belmont -13.5 | 43-81 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My selection is on Belmont minus the points over Evansville at 5 pm et on Saturday. I like the bounce-back spot for the Belmont Bruins here as they look to respond following an 'upset' loss against Ohio last time out. Here, they'll catch Evansville 'fat and happy' off a 20-point rout of an overmatched IUPUI squad two nights ago. Keep in mind, the Purple Aces opened their season with a 22-point loss against Cincinnati. While they do figure to be stronger than they were a year ago, they're still going to face an uphill battle against their tougher non-conference foes, and Belmont certainly falls into that category. These teams actually met last season with Belmont prevailing by nine points on the road. Evansville knocked down 11 threes compared to Belmont's four on that night to keep the game competitive. It also turned the ball over only 11 times. Here, the Purple Aces check in having turned it over 28 times through two contests. Look for Belmont to apply the pressure and ultimately pull away for a comfortable victory on Saturday, noting that the Bruins are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight home games following an ATS loss, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 18.3 points in that situation. Take Belmont (6*). | |||||||
11-12-21 | Blazers -6.5 v. Rockets | 104-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show | |
My selection is on Portland minus the points over Houston at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Blazers have yet to register a victory on the road this season but they've also faced some pretty tough opposition. This game against Houston marks their best chance at a road win and I expect them to come up big. Here, we'll note that the Rockets are a woeful 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points, outscored by 10.7 points on average in that situation. They're also a miserable 1-12 ATS in their last 13 home games after scoring 105 points or less in their last contest, as is the case here, outscored by an average margin of 14.5 points in that spot. Last time out, the Rockets held the Pistons to 43.3% shooting and turned the ball over only 13 times - well below their season-average of 19 - yet still lost by eight points in a game where they closed as a three-point favorite. I simply feel it will be a case of the Rockets being in the wrong place at the wrong time as they face a Blazers squad that will be looking to take its frustrations out on Friday night. Take Portland (7*). | |||||||
11-12-21 | Eastern Washington v. UC-Davis -8 | 76-84 | Push | 0 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
My selection is on Cal-Davis minus the points over Eastern Washington at 5 pm et on Friday. Credit Eastern Washington for putting up 76 points in its season-opener against Nevada but it still fell by 15 points in that game and I'm not convinced we'll see the Eagles improve on that losing margin by much in this one. It's going to be an uphill battle early on for EWU this season as few programs in the country have had to endure more roster turnover. Now the Eagles face exactly the type of team you don't want to see with a new-look lineup out of the gate as Cal-Davis plays a frenetic style of defense that will press for a full 40 minutes. That pesky defense led the Aggies to a big 72-69 upset win over Utah State in their season-opener. They secured the win despite shooting sub-40% from the field and knocking down just 6-of-21 three-point attempts. That's pretty much par for the course for a team that is never going to be known for its sharp-shooting. Cal-Davis will once again rely on hoisting up shots and crashing the boards and should find some success doing so against an EWU squad that is extremely vulnerable as it tries to work so many new pieces into the rotation. Note that the Eagles forced just nine turnovers in their opener. I'm not sure we can expect them to shoot better than the 43.9% they posted against Nevada and certainly anticipate them turning the ball over more than the 14 times they did in that contest. Look for an experienced Aggies squad to take another stride forward on Friday afternoon. Take Cal-Davis (10*). | |||||||
11-11-21 | Heat v. Clippers -3.5 | 109-112 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Miami at 10:40 pm et on Thursday. I really like the way the Clippers are playing right now, finding their way after a tough start to the season. They check into tonight's contest riding a five-game winning streak, having scored 120 and 117 points in the first two games of their current homestand. They're catching the Heat in the right place at the right time tonight as Miami has gotten off to a tough 0-2 start to its current road trip, suffering consecutive emotional losses against the Nuggets and Lakers. I'm not convinced the Heat can simply flip the switch after shooting 39.7% and 41.7% in their last two games and now facing a solid Clippers defense. Note that Miami is a woeful 4-13 ATS when coming off consecutive losses going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 5.2 points in that situation. You would have to go back six meetings in this series all the way to December of 2018 to find the last time Miami managed to post a victory (0-5 SU and ATS last five meetings). Take Los Angeles (9*). | |||||||
11-10-21 | Buffalo +15.5 v. Michigan | Top | 76-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
CBB Game of the Week. My selection is on Buffalo plus the points over Michigan at 6:30 pm et on Wednesday. Expectations are sky-high once again in Ann Arbor this season and the Wolverines are certainly a legitimate national title contender. With that being said, I do think an experienced, ultra-talented Buffalo squad is capable of giving them a run here in their season-opener on Wednesday. The Bulls could turn out to be 'best in class' in the MAC this season although Ohio may have something to say about that. This is an excellent measuring stick game right out of the gate and I expect the Bulls to relish the opportunity. Four starters return to Buffalo and Jim Whitesell's group should once again push the pace at every opportunity, perhaps catching the Wolverines a little off guard here in the first game of the season. Keep in mind, for as dominant as Michigan was last season, it opened the campaign by winning home games against Bowling Green and Oakland by just 14 and 10-point margins, respectively. In time, the Wolverines should once again evolve into an elite rim and perimeter defending team but Buffalo is a tough opening draw before it has a chance to settle in, especially with plenty of new faces in the lineup. While Buffalo is known for its up-tempo, explosive offense, it can play some defense as well. In fact, the Bulls were the best defensive squad in the MAC last year. Last season's MAC Defensive Player of the Year, Josh Mballa is back in the fold to anchor the Bulls defensive sets. While a 1-0 start should be well within reach for the Wolverines, this should be a test. Take Buffalo (10*). | |||||||
11-08-21 | Heat v. Nuggets +2.5 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Miami at 9:10 pm et on Monday. I like the way this one sets up for the Nuggets as they host the Heat on Monday night. Miami will be playing its fourth game in the last seven nights, in three different cities. The Heat needed every bit of their blistering 60.3% shooting performance to take down the Jazz at home on Saturday, ultimately winning that game by three points. It's worth noting that Miami was favored by a virtually identical pointspread to tonight in its last road game against Dallas. In that situation, the Heat were playing on two days' rest and keep in mind, that's the same Mavs squad that the Nuggets beat by 31 points earlier this season. Here, I like the fact that the Heat are in line for some offensive regression following that ridiculous shooting performance on Saturday while the Nuggets are coming off a sleepy effort against the lowly Rockets in which they shot just 40.4% in a matinee affair on Saturday. Michael Porter Jr. is expected to miss this game for Denver but he's been somewhat disappointing this season anyway, topping out at 15 points and that came in the season-opener. Note that the Nuggets are 31-14 ATS the last 45 times they've come off three consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.2 points in that situation. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
11-06-21 | 76ers v. Bulls -3.5 | 114-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
My selection is on Chicago minus the points over Philadelphia at 8:10 pm et on Saturday. The Bulls have already suffered a couple of tough losses against division opponents this season, including a five-point loss against the same 76ers that they'll face on Saturday night last time out. Philadelphia enters this game off five straight victories, somewhat surprisingly as it continues to play on without some key cogs including Tobias Harris who remains in Covid protocol. Here, we'll note that the 76ers are just 3-12 ATS the last 15 times they've come off consecutive ATS victories as a favorite, as is the case here. The Bulls meanwhile are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games following a close loss by six points or less, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.1 points in that situation. Philadelphia has now taken eight straight meetings in this series but that included matchups against some bad Bulls teams. Look for an improved Chicago team to bounce back and deliver a win and cover here. Take Chicago (8*). | |||||||
11-05-21 | Spurs -3.5 v. Magic | 102-89 | Win | 100 | 8 h 36 m | Show | |
My selection is on San Antonio minus the points over Orlando at 7:10 pm et on Friday. In this battle of two-win teams, I simply feel that the Spurs are the superior team and just as they did in a 26-point rout in San Antonio back on October 20th, I look for them to prove it on the floor on Friday night. Note that the Magic are a pitiful 14-30 ATS in their last 44 games as a home underdog, outscored by an average margin of 11.9 points in that situation. Worse still, Orlando is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 home games when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent, as is the case here following that 20+ point loss in San Antonio earlier this season. Oddly enough, the Magic have been outscored by an identical 11.9-point margin on average in that situation. The Spurs are coming of consecutive losses including a narrow one-point setback against the Mavericks last time out. Note that they own a stellar 26-14 ATS mark in their last 40 road games, including a 120-97 victory as a seven-point favorite here in Orlando last April. Take San Antonio (8*). | |||||||
11-05-21 | Nets v. Pistons +10.5 | 96-90 | Win | 100 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We missed with the Pistons last night as they failed to show up in the second half in an 11-point loss to the 76ers. Call me crazy but the fact that they actually 'only' lost by 11 points despite scoring just 32 second half points was encouraging. Here, I simply feel they're catching way too many points as they host a 'fat and happy' Nets squad coming off three consecutive victories with the last two coming in blowout fashion. Interestingly, the Pistons are 16-5 ATS when coming off three consecutive losses going back to last season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.3 points in that spot. While they're just 22-37 ATS the last 59 points they've been revenging a same-season loss against an opponent, that doesn't tell the whole story as they've been outscored by just 6.1 points on average in that situation - obviously a considerably shorter number than the pointspread we're working with here tonight. In two meetings between these two teams in Detroit last season, the Pistons won 122-111 and lost 113-111. Brooklyn has yet to win three straight games ATS this season and I'm willing to bet they fail to accomplish that feat here. Take Detroit (7*). | |||||||
11-04-21 | 76ers v. Pistons +6 | 109-98 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Thursday. This is an ideal spot to fade the 'fat and happy' 76ers as they come off four straight wins, all at home. Philadelphia has had to deal with some key absences lately with Tobias Harris missing time due to Covid protocols and Joel Embiid dealing with a nagging knee injury. Of course, there's no guarantee Embiid plays tonight in a back-to-back spot but we'll make this play on the assumption he is able to go. The Pistons have lost back-to-back games in blowout fashion. Those came in tough spots at Brooklyn and at home against the Bucks. Here, they're home and waiting for the Sixers, noting the last time these two teams squared off at Little Caesar's Arena last January it was no contest as Detroit rolled to a 119-104 victory as a 4.5-point underdog. Here, we're getting an even more favorable number. Look for the Pistons to take this one down to the wire at the very least. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
11-03-21 | Raptors v. Wizards -3 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Toronto at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. We successfully faded the Wizards in their last game as they fell by seven points in Atlanta. Here, I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Wiz as they return home to host a Raptors squad they had their way with earlier this season. Toronto is coming off a huge win in New York on Monday, fueled by a career night from O.G. Anunoby. I'm not counting on a repeat performance here. Note that while the Raps have now won four games in a row, here they find themselves in a spot that has seen them go a miserable 1-9 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games going back to last season, outscored by an average margin of 10.4 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Washington is an excellent positive momentum play as it has posted an incredible 15-1 ATS record after winning three of its last four games over the last season-plus, outscoring opponents by 5.9 points on average in that spot. Of course, these two teams met in the season-opener with the Wizards rolling to a 98-83 victory. Washington has now taken consecutive meetings against the Raptors after an extended run of futility in the series. While the Raps have a rather thin margin of error in my opinion, the Wiz have shown the ability to win in a variety of ways. This past Saturday they prevailed in overtime against the Celtics despite shooting a woeful 36.5% in the game. Last week they beat the Hawks here at home even with Atlanta shooting a scorching 54.5% from the field. As for the Raps, they've only managed to outscore the opposition by a combined 21 points during their current four-game winning streak. They've shot better than 48% from the field just once this season and needed to knock down every shot in that game as they won by just a single point, at home no less, against the lowly Magic. Here, we'll play against Toronto supported by a situation that has gone 74-39 ATS in which we fade underdog sides coming off consecutive outright underdog wins playing for the sixth time (or more) in the last 10 days. That situation has gone 10-3 ATS over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
11-01-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -5.5 | 111-118 | Win | 100 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta moneyline over Washington at 7:30 pm et on Monday. While the Wizards are off to a blazing 5-1 start to the season I look for them to get tripped up by the Hawks on Monday night. Atlanta is coming off consecutive losses but both of those were on the road, including a 122-111 setback against the same Wizards it will face on Monday. Here we'll note that favorites priced between -165 and -500 revenging a same-season loss against an opponent that are coming off a 20-point loss suffered on the road, as is the case with the Hawks, have gone 26-1 SU over the last five seasons. Atlanta was never really competitive in Saturday's blowout loss in Philadelphia, perhaps the product of playing a third road game in four nights at this early stage of the season when conditioning, or lack thereof, can be an issue. This is one of those difficult one-game trips for the Wizards before they return home to play their next three games. Off a double-overtime win over the Celtics on Saturday this is a classic letdown spot. Atlanta has won four straight home meetings with Washington. To find the last Wizards victory here in Atlanta you would have to go back to December of 2018. Take Atlanta moneyline (6*). | |||||||
11-01-21 | Bulls v. Celtics -1 | Top | 128-114 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Boston minus the points over Chicago at 7:40 pm et on Monday. It's still very early in the season but the Celtics find themselves in the Atlantic Division basement. Needless to say, this is a big game as they look to snap a two-game skid at home against the division-rival Bulls. Note that the C's also opened the season with consecutive losses but responded with a double-digit victory in Houston (without Jaylen Brown) in their next game (we won with Boston in that game). Here, they'll face the Bulls with double-revenge after dropping their last two matchups with Chicago last season. You would have to go back to 2017 to find the last time they lost back-to-back meetings with the Bulls. The next time they faced them they delivered a 17-point beatdown. Here, we'll back Boston noting that it has gone 23-10 ATS when coming off consecutive ATS losses over the last 2+ seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
10-27-21 | Cavs v. Clippers -8 | 92-79 | Loss | -101 | 15 h 58 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Cleveland at 10:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Cavaliers stunned the Nuggets in Denver on Monday, notching their second straight win to even their record at 2-2 on the season. That's actually a better record than that of the Clippers, who check into this one sitting at 1-2. Los Angeles is, however, coming off its first victory and it was an impressive one as it rolled to a 30-point rout of the Blazers on Monday. I like the Clips to keep the good vibes going for at least one more game on Wednesday. The Cavs are off to a fine start but they're still playing with a very slim margin for error as far as I'm concerned. Keep in mind, in their first two games this season - both losses - they shot better than 50% from the field, yet still fell by double-digit margins. In their last two contests they benefited from off shooting nights from their opponents with the Hawks and Nuggets knocking down just 38.4% and 40.7% of their shots, respectively. The Clippers dropped their first two games but both of those were tough, on the road against Golden State and at home against Memphis. They were competitive in both of those games, losing by just two and six points. Note that the Cavs are a woeful 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games against Pacific Division opponents, outscored by an average margin of 18.6 points in those contests. Despite Monday's victory, they're still just 10-25 ATS in their last 35 games as a road underdog, outscored by 10.8 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Clips have outscored the opposition by an average margin of 14.7 points in their last eight home games against Central Division opponents. They won by 17 points as nine-point favorites the last time they faced the Cavs right here in L.A. last February. Take Los Angeles (8*). | |||||||
10-27-21 | Hawks v. Pelicans +6 | Top | 102-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on New Orleans plus the points over Atlanta at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Hawks have certainly had the Pelicans number, taking five straight meetings in this series going back to the start of 2018, including both matchups (in blowout fashion) last season. I believe the Pelicans are well-positioned to put up a fight on Wednesday, however, as they return home after posting their first victory of the season in Minnesota on Monday. The Hawks are coming off a win and cover against the lowly Pistons on Monday but this is a team that has shown a fairly strong home-road dichotomy over the years. Note that while they check in a perfect 2-0 at home this season they dropped their lone road game, falling by a 101-95 score in Cleveland. In fact, they're just 32-48 ATS on the road over the last 2+ seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.8 points. The Pelicans on the other hand are in one of their most favorable spots here, and that's playing at home off an outright underdog victory, having outscored the opposition by an average margin of 5.7 points while averaging a whopping 123.9 points in that situation over the last 2+ seasons (13-game sample size). We've also seen them outscore the opposition by 4.2 points on average after posting consecutive ATS wins over the last 2+ seasons (14-game sample size). New Orleans is obviously still without Zion Williamson but that's certainly been factored into the line (note that the Pelicans were +1.5 the last time they hosted the Hawks and only +3.5 the last time they played in Atlanta - both games were played last April). Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
10-24-21 | Celtics -5 v. Rockets | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Houston at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Celtics are off to an 0-2 start and coming off an ugly 115-83 home loss against the Raptors on Friday night. Meanwhile the Rockets have split their first two games and are fresh off a 124-91 home win over the Thunder on Friday. Here, we find the Celtics in a situation that has gone 36-13 ATS over the last five seasons, as they come off an upset loss as a favorite facing an opponent that's coming off a home win in which it scored 110+ points. Teams in that situation have outscored opponents by 13.1 points on average over the last five seasons. Additionally, the Celtics are 22-10 ATS after dropping two or more straight games ATS over the last 2+ seasons, outscoring opponents by 7.9 points on average in that spot. Last year, the Celtics were favored by 11 points in their lone stop in Houston and won by 27. Take Boston (8*). | |||||||
10-21-21 | Bucks v. Heat +2.5 | Top | 95-137 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Week. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:10 pm et on Thursday. The Heat had a productive preseason, going 5-1 and getting some new faces acclimated into the lineup while also wisely managing the minutes of all of its key contributors. I look for Miami to get the new season off to a positive start against the defending champion Bucks on Thursday. Milwaukee is of course already 1-0 on the season after an impressive win over the Nets on Tuesday. The win didn't come without a price, however, as Jrue Holliday did suffer a heel injury in the game. He is expected to play on Thursday but it's notable as the Bucks are already dealing with a number of banged-up players (Bobby Portis, Rodney Hood and Donte DiVincenzo are all sidelined). Here, we'll back the Heat noting that despite all of their ups and downs in recent years, they have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points here at home over the last couple of seasons. I expect them to bring plenty of energy to their home-opener on Thursday and I think they have the talent to back it up. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
10-20-21 | Celtics v. Knicks -2 | Top | 134-138 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
NBA Atlantic Division Game of the Month. My selection is on New York minus the points over Boston at 7:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks made massive progress last season, reaching the playoffs before being dumped unceremoniously at the hands of the Atlanta Hawks. I think we'll see New York play with an even bigger chip on its shoulder this season as it looks to take care of unfinished business. Remember, the Knicks gave the Celtics all they could handle and then some last season, winning two of three meetings including a 30-point rout early in the campaign, in Boston no less. The Celtics were never really able to find their footing last season and while I do expect them to fare better here in 2021-22, a slow start could once again be in the cards. The C's are already dealing with Covid-19 quarantine issues as they'll be without Al Horford for this game while Jaylen Brown isn't certain to play but likely will be able to go. The Knicks of course made a big splash in the offseason by acquiring former Celtic Kemba Walker. Walker is no stranger to the Garden from his days with UConn in the Big East. I love the addition of Walker as his scoring should relieve some of the pressure on veteran Derrick Rose who was asked to take on a prominent role over the course of last season. If Walker can elevate the play of the rest of the Knicks young core, the sky really is the limit this season. Here, we'll back the Knicks noting that they've thrived in similar situations as a short home favorite, going 26-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by 6.0 points on average when priced between +3 and -3 over the last season-plus. Better still, that record is 18-3 ATS when only factoring in home games, with New York outscoring opponents by 7.0 points on average. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | 98-105 | Loss | -107 | 37 h 47 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Milwaukee at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The wheels have inexplicably fallen off for the Suns as they've dropped three straight games to relinquish control of this series and now face the prospect of needing a road win to force a seventh and deciding game. While I'm not going to call for the outright victory, I do expect the Suns to give the Bucks all they can handle and at the very least take this one right down to the wire. Note that Phoenix checks in 11-2 ATS when playing on the road with triple revenge over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 10 points in that situation. Long ATS losing streaks have been few and far between this season, noting that the Suns have gone 24-11 ATS off an ATS loss, outscoring the opposition by 7.6 points on average in that spot. Milwaukee has gone a miserable 5-14 ATS after winning three of its last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.7 points in that situation. Off three or more consecutive wins, the Bucks have gone 6-17 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by a narrow average margin of 1.0 point in that spot. We've seen quite a pendulum swing in this series with 'Suns in four' a common refrain after Phoenix posted consecutive lopsided wins to open the series before the Bucks reeled off three straight victories. Now everyone is quick to bury the Suns, assuming they're incapable of winning a game in Milwaukee. I simply feel a letdown could be in order for the Bucks here after they shot a blistering 51.3% and 55.2% in the last two games - noting that they've shot better than 50% from the field in consecutive games only twice previously this season, never able to do so in three straight contests. The door is still open a crack for a Suns squad that has proven more than capable of winning on the road this season, having gone 30-16 SU and 25-19-2 ATS. We'll grab all the points we can get with the underdog Suns here. Take Phoenix (8*). | |||||||
07-14-21 | Suns +4 v. Bucks | Top | 103-109 | Loss | -109 | 59 h 20 m | Show |
NBA Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Milwaukee at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Bucks in Game 3 of this series on Sunday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Suns as they look to grab a 3-1 stranglehold in this series on Wednesday night. Sunday's result could be chalked up as an anomaly as Phoenix had previously gone a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS when playing on two or more days' rest in these playoffs. It actually got off to a terrific start in that contest but ultimately couldn't match the Bucks desperation and fell behind by 20+ points entering the fourth quarter. The fact that Frank Kaminsky saw 13 minutes of playing time in that game tells you all you need to know about how that one played out. Here, we can expect the Suns to make the necessary defensive adjustments after Giannis Antetokounmpo went off for 41 points on 14-of-23 shooting (13-of-17 at the free throw line) in Game 3. It was just a solid all-around bounce-back game for the Bucks on Sunday with Jrue Holliday finally getting going again as well, knocking down 8-of-14 shots for 21 points. In the loss, Devin Booker shot a miserable 3-of-14 for 10 points for the Suns. We saw a similarly bad performance from him in Game 3 against the Clippers last round - a game Phoenix lost by 14 points. He responded by scoring 25 points in the next game, which the Suns won by an 84-80 score. In fact, the Suns are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in these playoffs after Booker is held to less than 20 points, winning those next games by an average margin of 14 points. Note that Phoenix checks in an incredible 9-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 12 points in that situation. The Suns have shot below 50% in three straight games to open this series. The last time they shot below that mark in three consecutive games they exploded with a 130-point outburst on 56.4% shooting on the road in Game 6 against the Clippers last round. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns -6 | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Milwaukee at 9:05 pm et on Tuesday. The Suns have actually dropped the cash in each of their last two home games which is notable as they've lost three consecutive home games ATS only once this entire season, that coming way back in January when they just weren't playing good basketball, mired in a 3-7 stretch. Here, I look for the well-rested Suns to come up with a big Finals-opening performance, regardless whether the Bucks have the services of Giannis Antetokounmpo or not. Milwaukee has of course been a different team on the road compared to at home this season. You wouldn't know it based on its most recent dominant performance, closing out the Hawks in Atlanta in blowout fashion on Saturday. Note that the Bucks are still just 19-26 ATS on the road this season where they allow just shy of 114 points per game. The Suns on the other hand, have gone 28-16 ATS on their home floor, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.9 points. Note that the Bucks are just 5-13 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.2 points in that situation. They're also a miserable 8-23 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, Phoenix owns an incredible 16-3 ATS record as a home favorite of six points or less this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 11.8 points in that spot. When coming off a double-digit win over a division opponent (as is the case here after their blowout victory over the Clippers last time out), the Suns have gone a perfect 7-0 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 14.2 points on average. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We won with the Bucks in Game 5 of this series two nights ago but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Hawks as the series shifts back to Atlanta on Saturday night. The Bucks are of course expected to be without Giannis Antetokounmpo once again on Saturday night. While there's a better chance that Trae Young is able to play for the Hawks, that's certainly no guarantee. Regardless whether he plays or not, I expect to see the Hawks bounce back with one of their best efforts of the series off of Thursday's lopsided loss. Note that the Bucks are just 4-13 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 4.0 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Hawks have gone 12-3 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less this season, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.5 points in that situation. After allowing Milwaukee to shoot better than 50% from the field in Game 5 we can expect Atlanta to make the necessary defensive adjustments here, noting that it has been a considerably better defensive team at home compared to on the road this season, allowing 2.5 points per game less than its season-average while holding the opposition to under 45% shooting. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -2 | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Hawks in Game 4 of this series on Tuesday but I won't hesitate to switch gears and back the Bucks, even with Giannis likely sidelined on Thursday night. Milwaukee allowed Atlanta to shoot 50.6% from the field in a game that was never really close on Tuesday. The Bucks do have a terrific track record of bouncing back from performances like that, however, noting that the only other time they allowed an opponent to shoot better than 50% from the field in these playoffs, they responded with a gritty 86-83 road win over the Nets last round. In fact, they're 7-2 SU the last nine times they've come off a game in which they allowed the opposition to shoot better than 50%. The Hawks are hoping to have Trae Young back in the lineup on Thursday but regardless whether he plays, I still expect Milwaukee to rise to the occasion. Young's absence seemed to have a galvanizing effect on the Hawks in Game 4 but now we could very well see a letdown. Note that the Bucks have gone 39-24 ATS off an outright upset loss as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.7 points. Giannis' absence certainly doesn't help their cause here, but we've seen Khris Middleton step up previously in this series and I expect him to relish taking a starring role on Thursday as well. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
06-30-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show |
NBA Conference Finals Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9 pm et on Wednesday. We won with the Suns in Game 4 of this series last Saturday before switching gears to cash the first half 'over' in Game 5 on Monday. Here, I won't hesitate to go back to the well with Phoenix as it looks to wrap up this series and advance to its first NBA Finals since 1993. Paul George went into 'superstar mode' for the Clippers in Game 5, shooting a blistering 15-for-20 from the field and pouring in 41 points as Los Angeles staved off elimination with an 'upset' win in Phoenix. If you follow my plays regularly you know that I like to fade teams after they have a player 'go off' in their previous contest. Lost in George's monster performance was the fact that Devin Booker also got on track with a 31-point effort - the first time he eclipsed the 30-point mark since scoring 41 in Game 1 against the Clips. Note that the Suns check in an incredible 11-2 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 13.4 points. They've gone 23-9 ATS when coming off an ATS loss this season, outscoring opponents by 7.8 points on average. Phoenix has shot 45.2% or worse in three consecutive games - its longest such streak this season. It did shoot 45.7% or worse in three straight games back in round one against the Lakers. In their next game, the Suns shot better than 50% from the field and won by a 113-100 score right here at Staples Center. A similar scoreline would be well within the realm of possibility on Wednesday. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +7 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Tuesday. We'll fade the Bucks on Tuesday coming off Khris Middleton's 38-point explosion in Game 3 (we won with the 'under' in that game). The Hawks are of course dealing with an injury to Trae Young, who may or may not be able to play due to a bruised foot suffered on Sunday. Whether he can go or not, I still like Atlanta in this spot as we're being given a generous helping of points with the home side, noting that the Hawks have already defeated the Bucks by seven as a six-point home underdog without Young in the lineup back in late April. Milwaukee has shot better than 51% in consecutive games - the first time it has accomplished that feat since May 13th and 15th. On that occasion, they followed up those two games with a 118-112 loss in Chicago as a 7.5-point favorite, shooting just 42.2% from the field in that loss. Note that the Bucks check in a miserable 4-12 ATS after winning three of their last four games ATS this season, outscored by an average margin of 3.0 points in that situation. They're also 8-22 ATS after winning six or seven of their last eight games overall this season, as is the case here, only managing to outscore opponents by an average margin of 3.9 points in that spot. The Hawks are 15-5 ATS playing at home off a double-digit home loss over the last three seasons and 28-15 ATS when at home off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 2.3 points on average in the latter situation. Finally, in 10 games played at home after two or more consecutive ATS losses this season, the Hawks have managed to outscore opponents by an average margin of 6.3 points. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Finals Game of the Year. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Los Angeles at 9:05 pm et on Saturday. The Suns couldn't have played much worse in Game 3 of this series but perhaps that was to be expected after they grabbed a 2-0 series lead thanks to a thrilling last-second win in Game 2 (we won with the Clippers in Game 3). Here, I look for Phoenix to bounce back in all areas of the game as it looks to grab a 3-1 stranglehold on the series before heading back home. Much has been made of Devin Booker's awful 5-of-21 shooting night and whether it had anything to do with him wearing a protective mask after breaking his nose in Game 2. Regardless whether the mask played a role, I expect him to respond with a big performance on Saturday night. The best generally bounce back and Booker is certainly in that elite category a this stage of his career. For the Suns, Game 3 was also their first game of the series with Chris Paul back in the lineup. I did figure it would take some time for him to get re-acclimated with the offense and that certainly appeared to be the case. Look for a more cohesive effort from the Suns offense here on Saturday. Note that Phoenix has gone 8-1 ATS when revenging a double-digit road loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by 12.9 points on average in that situation. The Suns have been an excellent bounce-back team all season, going 16-7 ATS and outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.2 points when coming off a loss of any kind. While the Suns did hold Paul George relatively in check in Game 3 (he shot 9-of-26 from the field for 27 points), they'll need to play with a lot more intensity here after George and Ivica Zubac combined to haul in 31 rebounds. Again, it was no real surprise that we saw Phoenix take a breath in Game 3 after they had not only won the first two games in this series, but nine straight overall. The only other time they lost a game by double-digits in these playoffs, they responded with a 100-92 victory right here at Staples Center in Game 4 against the Lakers in round one. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee minus the points over Atlanta at 8:35 pm et on Friday. Credit the Hawks for posting a more convincing Game 1 victory than the final score indicated two nights ago. Now it's the Bucks turn to answer back and that they will on Friday night. The fact that Milwaukee came out flat in Game 1 wasn't all that surprising. After all, it was coming off a grueling seven-game battle against the Nets - who were favored to win the NBA title. Getting up for the upstart Hawks was going to be a challenge and it played out accordingly on Wednesday night. Here, I'm confident we'll see a much sharper performance from the Bucks at both ends of the floor. Note that they check in 67-49 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 11.9 points. They're 31-11 SU at home this season, where they outscore the opposition by eight points per game on average. Meanwhile, the Hawks are just 20-36 ATS after posting consecutive ATS wins over the last three seasons. They're also just 7-18 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12 points over the last two seasons, outscored by a wide average margin of 15 points in that spot. Take Milwaukee (9*). | |||||||
06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1.5 | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles plus the points over Phoenix at 9:05 pm et on Thursday. Everyone is quick to count out the Kawhi-less Clippers after falling in an 0-2 hole in this series and with Chris Paul set to return for the Suns. I do feel we'll see what will potentially be the Clips best performance of the series on Thursday night, however, as they return home in desperate need of a victory to make this a series. Keep in mind, even with Kawhi Leonard in and out of the lineup all season, one thing has remained fairly consistent and that has been Los Angeles ability to win games at home having gone 30-13, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 7.8 points here at Staples Center. The Clips have also been a long-term winning bet when coming off a loss, going 37-21 ATS in their last 58 opportunities, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 10.2 points. We've seen Los Angeles lose consecutive games on two previous occasions in these playoffs. Following those mini-skids, the Clippers answered back with perhaps their two best games of the playoffs to date, defeating the Mavs 118-108 on 57.9% shooting in Game 3 of the opening round and throttling the Jazz 132-106 on 56.2% shooting in Game 3 last round. The difference here is they won't have Kawhi Leonard to lean on. Nonetheless, I believe they have a win in them in this series, and it comes on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | 103-96 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. We won with the 76ers (moneyline) in Game 6 of this series and I won't hesitate to come right back with them again as they host Game 7 against the Hawks on Sunday night. Atlanta had its chance to close out this series on its home floor and came up just short on Friday night. Now I suspect it is going to have a tough time getting back up and keeping this game competitive on Sunday night. The 76ers have been a terrific home team all season, going 33-9 SU and 25-16 ATS here in Philadelphia, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.1 points. While the Hawks check in 6-18 ATS as a road underdog of between 6.5 and 12.5 points over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 15.7 points. On the flip side, the 76ers are 30-20 ATS as a favorite of between 3.5 and 9.5 points this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.5 points. Better still, Philadelphia has gone 22-8 ATS when playing at home after losing two of their last three games over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.9 points. This series should probably already be over for all intents and purposes given the way the 76ers coughed up Game 5 on their home floor. Look for them to turn in one of their best performances of the series as they close out the Hawks in convincing fashion on Sunday night. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets -1 | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn minus the points over Milwaukee at 8:35 pm et on Saturday. We got what we wanted in Game 6 of this series as the Bucks cruised to an easy, double-digit victory to force a seventh and deciding game back in Brooklyn on Saturday night. Here, we'll back the Nets at a short number as they look to hold serve for a fourth time at home and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals in the process. The Bucks have offered the Nets their best punches in the last two games of this series, shooting better than 49% from the field in a six-point loss here in Brooklyn in Game 5 before registering a 16-point home win in Game 6. Now it's the Nets turn to answer back with a peak performance here at home, even without Kyrie Irving. Brooklyn has of course been a tremendous home team this season, going 34-8 while outscoring the opposition by just shy of eight points per game. The Nets have gone a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS here at home in these playoffs. Game 6 was always going to be an uphill battle for the Nets off an emotional, Kevin Durant-fueled Game 5 victory here at home. Not surprisingly, the Bucks came out with more energy and had little trouble forcing a seventh game. Now the situation sets up well for the Nets, noting that Milwaukee has gone 5-14 ATS when playing on the road after winning two of its last three games this season. We're dealing with a short pointspread here for a reason as the Nets certainly aren't the same team without their 'Big Three' intact. With that being said, I do think they're right where they want to be, at home with a chance to close out this series, and I look for them to take full advantage. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 8:05 pm et on Sunday. This line is moving in the wrong direction in my opinion. While the Nuggets are highly unlikely to give the Suns a serious run int his series I do think that they can salvage at least one game. Note that Denver is 10-2 ATS when revenging a home loss against an opponent this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 10.3 points. In fact, coming off a home loss of any kind this season, the Nuggets have outscored opponents by 12.8 points on average the 12 times that situation has come up. They're also an impressive 17-5 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 14.4 points in that situation. I have a lot of respect for Phoenix. There's a reason I didn't fade them in Game 3 (instead playing the 'under'). However, the fourth win is always the toughest in a series and I expect them to get extended at least one more game against a Nuggets squad that should play with some pride on Sunday night. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
06-09-21 | Nuggets +5.5 v. Suns | 98-123 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My selection is on Denver plus the points over Phoenix at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. Despite the relatively lopsided result in the opener of this series I still think this has the makings of a long series between two teams that have the ability to win away from home. Case in point, the Nuggets took two of three games in Portland in the opening round and despite their Game 1 loss, check in 24-16 away from home this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 2.6 points. Here, we find the Nuggets an incredible 12-2 ATS when trailing in a playoff series over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by 4.9 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Suns are just 10-22 ATS when playing at home after scoring 120 points or more in a game over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 2.0 points in that situation. There's really no intimidation factor at play here as the Nuggets have taken five of the last six meetings in this series here in Phoenix. The Suns have looked better when playing on more than one day of rest during these playoffs, particularly with Chris Paul dealing with a nagging shoulder injury. They're just 2-2 ATS when playing on one day of rest but a perfect 3-0 ATS when coming off two or more off days. Both of their SU losses in these playoffs came on one day of rest. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Atlanta at 7:30 pm et on Tuesday. This line is moving in the wrong direction as far as I'm concerned. The 76ers clearly took the Hawks lightly in the opener of this series on Sunday, falling behind big early as the Hawks simply couldn't miss in the first half. They did rally to make a game of it, however, showing a bit of Atlanta's inexperience in the process. Here, I look for the Sixers to bounce back with a convincing win. Note that Philadelphia has gone 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games as a home favorite of six points or less, as is the case here at the time of writing, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 9.9 points. Better still, the Sixers are 21-8 ATS at home after losing two of their last three games, outscoring opponents by 12.7 points on average in that situation over the last three seasons. Atlanta is still a losing team on the road this season at 19-21 and checks in 20-34 ATS after winning consecutive games ATS over the last three seasons, outscored by 5.8 points on average in that spot. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | 107-115 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Milwaukee plus the points over Brooklyn at 7:35 pm et on Saturday. Travelling this weekend so my apologies for the somewhat brief analysis for this play. Let’s take a shot with the Bucks here as we go against the narrative that the Nets are invincible after taking care of the Celtics with ease in the opening round. This does promise to be a long, hard-fought series after the Bucks ‘slayed the dragon’ so to speak by taking down last year’s playoff nemesis, the Miami Heat, in an opening round sweep. The Nets have gone with a smaller lineup since dealing rim protector Jarrett Allen and I do think that leaves them vulnerable against a Bucks squad that crashes the boards relentlessly. Take Milwaukee (10*). | |||||||
06-04-21 | Clippers -2.5 v. Mavs | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:05 pm et on Friday. The road team has won all five games in this series so far but perhaps that shouldn't come as a big surprise as both teams have proven to be 'road warriors' this season with the Clippers going 23-15 and the Mavs posting a 24-15 record away from home. I look for that trend to continue on Friday as this will be the only first round series that goes the full seven games. Los Angeles actually falls into an excellent situation here having gone 14-2 ATS, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 18.5 points (!), after losing five or six of its last seven games ATS over the last two seasons (as is the case here). The Clips are 34-20 ATS after a loss of any kind over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 10.5 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Mavs check in a miserable 6-17 ATS when returning home off a road win over the last two seasons, outscored by a considerable average margin of 6.5 points. The fourth win in a series is generally the toughest one to get (don't tell that to the Suns) and I expect the Mavs to find that out on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference First Round Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:35 pm et on Thursday. Everyone is down on the Lakers right now. Perhaps rightfully so after an ugly 30-point loss in Game 5 of this series two nights ago. Concerning for the Suns though is the fact that Chris Paul was forced to leave Tuesday's game after aggravating his shoulder injury. Now he'll be forced to play on just one day of rest once again - just as we saw between Games 2 and 3 when the Lakers rolled to a 14-point victory here at home. It was only after two off days that CP3 was able to turn in a stellar performance in last Sunday's key Game 4 victory here in Los Angeles. While Anthony Davis' status remains in question for Los Angeles I would expect him to play in this elimination game, although even if he can't go, I still like the Lakers at a short number here. Even with Lebron and AD in and out of the lineup this season, Los Angeles has still managed to go 23-16 here at home, outscoring the opposition by 3.5 points on average. Better still, the Lakers have outscored opponents by an average of 6.7 points as a favorite this season. Considering the Lakers closed as -6.5-point favorites in both Games 3 and 4 here at home, I believe we're dealing with an overreaction to the last two results in this series. AD's status certainly plays a factor as well but perhaps a little more than it should as the defending champs face elimination on Thursday. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Mavs +7 v. Clippers | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Dallas plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. The road team has won all four games in this series so far and while I'm not sure if that trend will continue on Wednesday, I do think this line will prove too high. I like the fact that there have been two days off between games here as that will have served to give Mavs injured star Luke Doncic a little extra time to get treatment on his neck and heal up heading into this one. Of course, the Mavs have been a better team off a loss as well, particularly on the road where they've gone 26-15 ATS off a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 5.5 points. On 39 occasions where the Clippers have come off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons, as is the case here, they've actually been outscored by 0.6 points on average. Meanwhile, the Mavs have outscored opponents by an average margin of 3.1 points per game after losing two or more games in a row ATS over the last three seasons, as is the case here, with that situation coming up 43 times. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
06-02-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -1 | 103-89 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. The Knicks have been quite simply outclassed in the last two games in this series but if there were ever a time for them to punch back, this would be it as they face elimination on Wednesday night at MSG. The situation sets up well for New York here. Note that Atlanta has gone just 11-22 when heading on the road following a home game over the last two seasons, outscored by 7.5 points on average in the process. Worse still, the Hawks are 18-34 ATS when coming off two or more wins in a row over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knicks are an incredible 18-2 ATS when at home with the line set between +3 and -3 this season, as is the case at the time of writing. They're also 19-8 ATS as a favorite this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 8.6 points. After getting blown out in the last two games it's not going to be difficult at all for the Knicks to get up for this one. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
05-30-21 | Suns +7 v. Lakers | 100-92 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
My selection is on Phoenix plus the points over Los Angeles at 3:35 pm et on Sunday. The Suns are in tough right now with Chris Paul battling a painful shoulder injury that has rendered him ineffective over the last two games - both losses. However, with an extra day off between games, I would expect CP3 to at the very least contribute more than he did in Game 3, while I also expect the rest of the Suns to step up off back-to-back losses. Note that Phoenix has been an excellent road team this season, going 24-13 while outscoring the opposition by 2.2 points per game. They're in a fine spot here, having gone 23-11 ATS when revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 4.4 points on average in that situation. They've also been a tremendous bounce-back team this season, going 21-8 ATS off an ATS loss this season, outscoring opponents by an impressive average margin of 8.7 points in that spot. Meanwhile, the Lakers check in a miserable 4-17 ATS when playing at home off a double-digit home victory over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by a narrow margin of 2.7 points per game in that situation. We're certainly taking a bit of a chance here as Chris Paul's health remains in serious question. However, at the current number, I believe Phoenix is worth a shot in this critical Game 4 matchup. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -112 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
NBA First Round Elimination Game of the Year. My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 1:35 pm et on Saturday. You probably won't find the majority of bettors looking to back the Heat here as they come off consecutive embarrassing performances to dig themselves a virtually insurmountable 0-3 hole in this series. Believe it or not, I think the Heat are set up well to avoid elimination on Saturday afternoon, however. Note that Milwaukee is just 11-24 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season. Better still, the Bucks are 5-16 ATS after posting three or more consecutive victories this season, outscoring opponents by just 0.7 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone 13-3 ATS after giving up 105 points or more in five consecutive games over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an impressive 7.9 points per game in that spot. The fourth win is generally the toughest in a playoff series and I expect that to hold true here. While the Heat were absolutely crushed in Game 3, at least Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler both managed to post series-high scoring totals. I expect that duo to show some pride and lead the Heat to a strong bounce-back effort here. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-28-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
NBA First Round Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 9:35 pm et on Friday. The Clippers have dug themselves an 0-2 hole heading to Dallas for Game 3 but I don't expect them to panic. No NBA series is really over (for all intents and purposes) until a team goes down 3-0. Here, the Clips are actually set up well as they've gone 22-10 ATS on the road revenging a same-season loss against an opponent over the last three seasons. Better still, they're an incredible 13-2 ATS after losing five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscoring the opposition by a whopping 19.1 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Mavs have generally been a better team at home off a loss in recent years, going 6-16 ATS the last 22 times they've returned home following a road victory, outscored by an average margin of 6.3 points in that spot. Dallas has now won three straight meetings in this series, noting that it hadn't even managed to take two straight matchups in the previous nine games between these two teams going back to the bubble in Orlando last summer. A quality road team having gone 21-15, outscoring the opposition by 4.3 points on average, I look for the Clippers to come up with an answer in Big D on Friday night. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
05-27-21 | Suns v. Lakers -7 | Top | 95-109 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Phoenix at 10:05 pm et on Thursday. We won with the Lakers (and the 'over') in Game 2 of this series and we'll come right back with them again in Game 3 as the scene shifts to Staples Center in Los Angeles. Chris Paul is obviously the engine that runs the Suns offense. Yes, Devin Booker is electric and capable of going off on any given night, but without a healthy CP3, the Suns aren't going anywhere. Paul is nursing a shoulder injury he suffered in the opener of this series and was limited to just 22 ineffective minutes in Game 2. Now with only a day off between games, I'm not sure how much he can give the Suns on Thursday night. There's probably a better chance we see him go full throttle in Game 4 as there will be a two-day layoff between games. Regardless, the Suns are not well-positioned to take control of this series here, noting they've gone just 5-5 over their last 10 road games after starting the season 19-7 away from home. Meanwhile, home court has suddenly meant something to the Lakers as they've reeled off five straight victories here at home, not coincidentally the streak has had a lot to do with them getting healthier down the stretch. We saw the Lakers clamp down on the Suns offense in Game 2. We've yet to see them turn in their best effort offensively but I do think it's coming. Why not on Thursday, in a pivotal Game 3 matchup on their home floor. Note that L.A. checks in 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in its last six home matchups against Phoenix. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
05-26-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | 129-141 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
My selection is on Utah minus the points over Memphis at 10:05 pm et on Wednesday. We missed badly with the Jazz in Sunday's outright loss in Game 1 against the Grizzlies but I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here as they look to bounce back and even the series at a game apiece. I think Utah was caught a little flat-footed emotionally after Donovan Mitchell was a late scratch in Game 1. All indications leading up to the series-opener were that he would be good to go, but that changed on Sunday afternoon. Now Utah is prepared to move forward without Mitchell, although it does once again sound like he'll likely suit up for Game 2 on Wednesday. Just as they have all season, the Grizzlies exceeded expectations and rode the momentum from their play-in tournament victory to a 112-109 win here in Salt Lake City on Sunday. Note that the Jazz have gone 17-5 ATS when playing consecutive home games this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 15.5 points. They're also a solid 63-41 ATS the last 104 times they've played at home off an outright loss as a home favorite, as is the case here. Meanwhile, this has been a bit of a tough spot for the Grizzlies defensively, playing on the road after winning four of their last five games as they've given up 120.3 points per game. I expect a big response from the Jazz here, noting that they've gone 31-6 here at home this season, outscoring opponents by 12.8 points on average. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -2 | Top | 92-101 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Round 1 Game of the Year. My selection is on New York minus the points over Atlanta at 7:35 pm et on Wednesday. I really like the way this one sets up for the Knicks after they played poorly but still took the Hawks right down to the wire in the opener of this series on Sunday. The fantastic duo of R.J. Barrett and Julius Randle combined to knock down just 12 shots and score only 29 points in Game 1, something I look for them to make amends for here in Game 2. Hawks superstar Trae Young got to the free throw line nine times (and knocked down all nine shots) in Game 1 and now continues to get called out for 'flopping'. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Knicks get the benefit of the doubt from the officials a little more here in Game 2. Note that the Hawks are just 5-15 ATS on the road after scoring 105 points or more in four straight games over the last two seasons, as is the case here, outscored by 7.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Knicks have thrived in similar situations to this all season, going 18-8 ATS as a favorite and and incredible 25-6 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, as is the case here. Better still, they're 17-2 ATS when at home in the latter situation this season, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 7.9 points. Finally, note that the Knicks have taken four of the last six meetings with Atlanta here at home. I don't believe there's any real intimidation factor at play in this one. Now that the Hawks have earned their split in New York, I look for the Knicks to answer back and send the series back to Atlanta knotted at one game apiece. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
05-25-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | 127-121 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Dallas at 10:35 pm et on Tuesday. The Mavericks took the opener of this series on Saturday but I look for the Clippers to answer back with a convincing victory of their own on Tuesday. Remember, these two teams met in the bubble in Orlando last August as the Clippers prevailed 4-2. In that series, the Clips did a terrific job bouncing back from their two losses, securing victories by eight and 43-point margins (yes, they won the latter contest 154-111). That's pretty much par for the course when it comes to the Clippers as they've been a terrific bounce-back team, having gone 33-19 ATS after a loss over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 10.8 points in that situation. Better still, they're 13-4 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss, as is the case here, over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 12.8 points in that spot. Dallas is an excellent team and certainly has a shot at winning this series, as evidenced by its convincing Game 1 victory, however I expect the Mavs to have a tough time matching the Clips intensity here after accomplishing their goal of earning at least a split in Los Angeles. Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -1.5 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Portland at 10:05 pm et on Monday. The Blazers took the opener of this series, which shouldn't have come as a big surprise as they played exceptionally well down the stretch this season and they've been terrific on the road, going 23-14. Here, I expect the Nuggets to bounce back, however, noting that they've gone 25-12 at home this season, outscoring the opposition by an average of six points, and have taken seven of their last 10 home meetings with Portland. The Blazers have now won consecutive games in this series after the Nuggets had taken the previous two. Note that the Nuggets check in 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games when trailing a playoff series, outscoring the opposition by 6.9 points per game. They've also a terrific 13-4 ATS when coming off two more consecutive losses over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 9.8 points. All respect to Portland, it was the better team in Game 1, but now it has accomplished its goal of earning at least a split here in Denver. Look for the Blazers to fall short on Monday. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
05-24-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | 98-132 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
My selection is on Miami plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:35 pm et on Monday. We won with the Heat in the opener of this series on Saturday and I won't hesitate to go back to the well with the same play here. While the Bucks slogan is 'Fear the Deer', there was really nothing to fear for Miami in Game 1 of this series on Saturday. The Heat were right there for four quarters plus overtime and only fell short thanks to an incredible shot by Khris Middleton in the final second of OT. The fact that they were right there should be encouraging as the Heat certainly didn't play their best game - not by a longshot. So many easy shots - within 4-6 feet of the basket - were missed. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo just couldn't buy a basket at times, missing a number of layups that could have easiliy been the difference in the game. I expect them to make amends here on Monday. Note that the Heat remain a winning team on the road this season and they'll certainly want to earn a split here in Milwaukee, knowing just how difficult it would be to come back from a 2-0 deficit, needing four wins in five games - a nearly insurmountable task against a team as good as the Bucks. Take Miami (10*). | |||||||
05-23-21 | Grizzlies v. Jazz -8.5 | Top | 112-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
NBA First Round Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Utah minus the points over Memphis at 9:35 pm et on Sunday. The Grizzlies did well to take down the eight-seed with consecutive wins in the play-in tournament, including Friday's upset win over the Warriors in San Francisco. Here, however, I look for them to get a bit of a reality check against the well-rested Jazz. Utah has been positively dominant here at home this season, posting a 31-5 record while outscoring opponents by 13.2 points per game. While the Grizzlies were battling it out in a pair of close games against the Spurs and Grizzlies the Jazz were at home resting, and getting healthier with both Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley expected to play in Sunday's playoff-opener. Mitchell obviously gives the Jazz a major boost. Even without him, they still put up gawdy offensive numbers, scoring more than 120 points in four of their final seven games down the stretch. While Memphis has been locked in defensively this will undoubtedly be a difficult challenge against a Jazz squad that averages over 117 points per game and shoots better than 47% from the field at home this season. I'm concerned that the Grizzlies offense might not be able to keep pace here considering they check in having shot 44.4% or worse from the field in each of their last four contests. Take Utah (10*). | |||||||
05-18-21 | Wizards v. Celtics -2 | 100-118 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Washington at 9:10 pm et on Tuesday. I simply feel this is a short line to back the Celtics here at home as they try to make amends for what has been a very disappointing season and earn their way into the playoffs with a victory here on Tuesday night. Boston does check in sporting a 21-15 home record and will have its full compliment of players back in the lineup, with the exception of Jaylen Brown, after missing a number of key starters in its last couple of regular season games. The Wizards have expended a ton of energy just to get to this point and I can't help but feel there's a bit of an exhale here, knowing they have two chances to advance given this is the 7-8 matchup in the East. Note that the Wiz are just 15-21 on the road this season, just 5-13 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, outscored by an average margin of 5.9 points in that situation this season. They're also just 18-34 ATS on the road following an ATS loss over the last three seasons while Boston checks in 8-1 ATS after losing four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by 6.0 points per game in that spot. The C's have also won four straight meetings against the Wizards here in Boston. Take Boston (9*). | |||||||
05-13-21 | Magic v. Hawks -13 | 93-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Orlando at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. The Hawks managed to wrap up a two-game sweep of the Wizards at home last night although it took a big fourth quarter rally to do so. Atlanta certainly didn't bring its 'A' game, perhaps a product of already having taken care of Washington on two previous occasions this season. The Hawks enter this game having shot better than 50% from the field in five of their last six games and they should absolutely go off against a Magic squad that is simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando has been bullied lately, allowing three of its last four opponents to shoot 48.5% or better while giving up 51 or more rebounds in three straight contests entering tonight's game. Last time out the Magic actually held the Bucks to 42.6% shooting but still lost by 12 points (they did manage to cover the spread). The Magic simply can't match the Hawks depth, as we saw in the most recent meeting, when Atlanta cruised to a 16-point win on April 20th. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
NBA Southeast Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Washington at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. This is a brutal spot for the Wizards as they play a second straight game in Atlanta (following an off day yesterday) on the heels of a momentum-killing one-point loss here on Monday (note they outscored the Hawks by 16 points and scored 45 points in the fourth quarter, only to fall one point short). Washington has been battling hard to earn a spot in the NBA Play-in Tournament but how bad do they really want it apart from Russell Westbrook who continues to stuff the statsheet and chase individual records? The Hawks have won eight straight games here at home with the first seven of those victories coming by 12, 16, 15, 7, 11, 9 and 32-point margins prior to Monday's close call. Atlanta is in an excellent spot here having gone 8-1 ATS when playing at home off a home win this season, outscoring the opposition by 9.4 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards check in allowing a whopping 122 points per game when playing with double-revenge, as is the case here after dropping the previous two meetings this season. The Wizards have been involved in so many tightly-contested games lately - I simply expect them to run out of gas in this spot. Keep in mind, Bradley Beal remains sidelined with a hamstring injury while the Hawks are as healthy as they've been in quite some time after dealing with numerous key injuries over the course of the season. The Hawks are a good defensive team that hasn't played like it over the last couple of games but I look for them to turn in a solid performance in that department here, noting they have held opponents to 45.6% shooting on their home floor this season. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
05-08-21 | Thunder v. Warriors -14 | Top | 97-136 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Golden State minus the points over Oklahoma City at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. The Warriors have already crushed the Thunder twice this season including two nights ago as they rolled to a 21-point victory. I don't mind laying all the points with the Warriors here as they check in playing phenomenal defensive basketball having held four straight opponents to 43.3% or worse shooting. They won three of those four games, with all three victories coming by at least 15 points. The Thunder are simply playing out the string at this point and have managed to shoot better than 40.9% just once over their last five contests. While they'll be looking for quick revenge here, no more so than last time out as they were looking to avenge an even more lopsided 147-109 loss at home back on April 14th. The fact is, the Thunder are overmatched against most opponents right now and the Warriors aren't likely to sleepwalk through this one as they continue to fight for playoff positioning in a crowded Western Conference. Note that the SU winner has also covered the spread in 40 of the Warriors last 41 games overall. I look for that trend to continue tonight. Take Golden State (10*). | |||||||
05-07-21 | Pelicans v. 76ers -9.5 | 107-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over New Orleans at 7:10 pm et on Friday. We won with the Pelicans in their last game as they rallied to defeat the Warriors and split a two-game set at home. New Orleans checks in 5-1 ATS over its last six games but let's face it, this team isn't really going anywhere sitting six games under .500 in 11th place in the Western Conference. With Brandon Ingram sidelined and Zion Williamson having aggravated an injury to his hand last time out, I could certainly see them folding the tent should they find themselves trailing by any considerable margin in the fourth quarter tonight. Philadelphia has been pouring it on lately, winning six straight games, scoring more than 120 points in four of those contests. The 76ers and healthy and firing on all cylinders, having shot better than 53% from the field in four of their last six games while holding the opposition to 45.2% or worse shooting in all six of those contests. I don't expect any sort of letdown from Philadelphia here after it lost by seven points on the road against New Orleans (as a five-point favorite) in the last matchup between these two teams less than a month ago. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
05-04-21 | Warriors v. Pelicans -2.5 | 103-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Golden State at 8:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Warriors took the first game of this two-game set in New Orleans last night but I like the Pelicans to bounce back here on Tuesday. Note that New Orleans has outscored the opposition by 3.2 points on average when coming off an upset loss as a favorite this season. The Pelicans also check in averaging 119.3 points per game when revenging a double-digit loss this season. The Warriors are just 10-22 ATS when playing the second of back-to-backs over the last three seasons, outscored by an average margin of 4.7 points in that spot. They're also just 3-11 ATS after posting consecutive wins this season, outscored by 7.3 points per game in that situation. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
05-04-21 | Nets +2 v. Bucks | Top | 118-124 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Year. My selection is on Brooklyn plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Tuesday. The Nets are coming off consecutive losses, including a three-point setback in a poor all around performance here in Milwaukee on Sunday afternoon. I look for Brooklyn to answer back positively here on Tuesday as it finds itself in what I would consider a smash spot offensively after being held to 42.1% and 42.7% shooting in its last two games. Keep in mind, the Nets had shot 48.2% or better in seven of its previous 11 contests, even with what seems like a merry-go-round rotation on any given night. The Nets are averaging north of 119 points per game on an impressive 49.3% shooting on the road this season. Of course, the Bucks have been every bit as good offensively here at home this season and enter this game off consecutive victories. They haven't won three games in a row since April 11th to 15th, however, going just 5-4 SU and ATS since. They're certainly not invincible here at home, having lost five games outright here in Milwaukee since March 26th. Note that the Nets are 34-16 ATS when on the road revenging a loss in which their opponent scored 110 points or more over the last three seasons, outscoring opponents by 0.8 points on average in that situation. Milwaukee checks in a miserable 7-17 ATS after winning five or six of its last seven games this season, as is the case here. The Bucks are also just 29-49 ATS when coming off a home win by three points or less the last 78 times that situation has come up. Take Brooklyn (10*). | |||||||
05-03-21 | Blazers v. Hawks -1 | Top | 114-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Year. My selection is on Atlanta minus the points over Portland at 8:10 pm et on Monday. The Hawks are well-positioned to go on a late season run after a brief lull on the road last week. Trae Young returned to the lineup two games back and proceeded to pour in 30+ points in both contests. Now Atlanta draws a tough matchup with the surging Blazers on Monday with Portland coming off its fourth straight road win to open its current trip last night in Boston. I believe the Hawks will be up to the challenge in this revenge spot after suffering a 112-106 loss in Portland back in mid-January. Note that the last time these two teams met here in Atlanta, the Hawks prevailed by a 129-117 score last February. The Hawks shook off a three-game losing streak to deliver a 108-97 win over the Bulls on Saturday. They've scored just 104 and 108 points since Trae Young returned to the lineup but an offensive outburst is coming, and could very well come against a road-weary Blazers squad on Monday. Note that Portland allows 114.9 points per game on 47.6% shooting on the road this season. Meanwhile, Atlanta checks in 13-5 ATS as a home favorite this season, allowing just 104.3 points per game in that situation. The Hawks have put together a terrific stretch of defensive basketball here at home lately, allowing 96, 103, 104 and 97 points in their last four home games - all victories. Note that Atlanta is 26-14 ATS the last 40 times it has played at home revenging a loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.9 points, which is more encouraging when you consider that trend goes back two seasons, when the Hawks were a far weaker team than they are this year. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
05-02-21 | Raptors v. Lakers -7 | Top | 121-114 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Blowout Game of the Year. My selection is on Los Angeles minus the points over Toronto at 10:10 pm et on Sunday. Bettors were quick to get behind the Lakers on Friday night as Lebron James made a surprising return and Los Angeles closed as an 11.5-point favorite. Things didn't go well, however, as the Lakers ultimately fell by four points against the Kings. I expect a better performance from the Lakers here as they look to regain their footing and snap their two-game skid before a tougher matchup against the Nuggets tomorrow night. It actually wasn't that bad of a game from Los Angeles on Friday as it shot 50% from the field and held Sacramento to 45.3% shooting. It was a tough scheduling spot in the first place, given the Lakers were returning home on just one day rest and across three time zones following a four-game road trip. The Raptors have opened their current trip with consecutive losses in Denver and Utah. Toronto is simply playing out the string at this point and doesn't look all that interested in winning games, resting Kyle Lowry last night. I have no doubt the Raps will get up for this game on Sunday - I'm just not convinced they can match the Lakers hunger in this spot. Note that Toronto has allowed three straight opponents to shoot better than 47% from the field and things don't figure to get any easier here, playing on no rest after consecutive games in altitude. There's been plenty of talk after Lebron James indicated following Friday's game that he may never again be 100% healthy. That's just talk. If he's in the lineup on Sunday, he'll play well. If he's not, I still like the Lakers at a reasonable price against a road-weary Raptors squad playing their sixth game in the last nine nights, in five different cities (by contrast the Lakers are playing just their fifth game over that stretch, in four different cities). Take Los Angeles (10*). | |||||||
05-01-21 | Pistons v. Hornets -6.5 | Top | 94-107 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Charlotte minus the points over Detroit at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I'm not sure the average bettor realizes how dire the Pistons injury situation is right now. Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant and Cory Joseph have all been ruled out for Saturday's game (among many others) while Hamidou Diallo, who has given them good minutes and production off the bench, is now listed as doubtful as well. Detroit hung around for a while against an undermanned Mavs squad on Thursday (Luka Doncic missed that game) but still fell by double-digits, despite shooting better than 50% from the field. Here, the Pistons will run into a Hornets squad that should certainly be in a foul mood following consecutive losses, as they continue to fight for a playoff spot in the East. Charlotte is of course dealing with injury issues of its own but it does appear Malik Monk and LaMelo Ball are at least close to returning, which should give the Hornets a bit of an emotional boost as they continue to push forward. Note that Charlotte checks in 16-7 ATS after losing two of its last three games this season and owns a 31-17 ATS mark following consecutive ATS losses over the last three seasons. There are plenty of trends supporting the Pistons here, and that certainly factors into the relatively short pointspread. But the fact is, Detroit has now dropped three of its last four games ATS with its lone victory over that stretch coming against a banged-up Hawks squad that was in letdown mode following a home upset win over the Bucks two nights earlier. Take Charlotte (10*). | |||||||
04-30-21 | Magic v. Grizzlies -10.5 | Top | 75-92 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis minus the points over Orlando at 8:10 pm et on Friday. The Grizzlies returned home from a long, successful road trip that ended with a thud (a blowout loss in Denver) and couldn't regain their footing in a blowout loss at the hands of the Blazers, who were in a quick revenge spot, two nights ago. Here, I expect Memphis to fare much better as it draws a favorable matchup against the lowly Magic. Orlando is actually coming off a rare win but that came against the Cavs. The Magic have now won consecutive games ATS but I think that's about as much as we can expect from this team that's simply playing out the string at this point. Orlando certainly isn't looking to force the issue down the stretch, taking a cautious approach with both Michael Carter-Williams and Terrence Ross, who are nursing minor injuries but likely to sit again on Friday. The Grizzlies were actually favored against the Blazers two nights ago but probably shouldn't have been (hindsight is 20/20 of course) as they were playing on just one day of rest following an extremely difficult seven-game road trip. We should see the Grizz come out with much fresher legs tonight and that should result in a far better shooting performance after they were held to 42% shooting against Portland. The Magic held the Cavs to 40.2% shooting last time out but check in allowing 118.8 points per game when playing in a game with a posted total 220 points or higher, as is the case here. The Grizzlies have shown the ability to tighten things up following a bad loss, allowing just 107.9 points per game after a double-digit home loss over the last two seasons. They should be able to get loose in this one against a Magic squad that prior to their last game had allowed five of their last six opponents to shoot 50% or better from the field and three consecutive opponents shoot 54% or better. The Magic took the most recent meeting in this series but that was last March. We haven't got a real picture of just how wide the gap has grown between these two squads here in 2021 but we should see it in the front half of this home-and-home series on Friday night. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
04-29-21 | Pelicans -9 v. Thunder | Top | 109-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Week. My selection is on New Orleans minus the points over Oklahoma City at 9:10 pm et on Thursday. The Pelicans may appear to be in a tough situation on paper as they play the second of back-to-back nights off a two-point loss in Denver last night. However, they're actually in the same three-in-four situation as the Thunder and catch Oklahoma City in a letdown spot off an upset win in Boston two nights ago - the team's first victory since back on March 31st against the Raptors. In order to secure that win, the Thunder needed to shoot better than 48% from the field - their best shooting performance since April 10th against the 76ers (a game they lost by 24 points). Keep in mind, Oklahoma City is averaging just 106.5 points per game on 45.5% shooting here at home this season. Playing at a much quicker pace lately they can certainly turn this into a track meet but that should only serve to stretch out the margin. The Pelicans are bringing the proper level of intensity to the floor every night, having shot 47.1% or better from the field in five straight games, shooting north of 53% in three of those contests. Last night's game ended a streak of three straight contests holding their opposition to 43.6% shooting or worse. Note that the Pelicans check in ranked eighth in the league in opponents effective field goal percentage over their last three games. They rank tops in the league in floor percentage this season. Oklahoma City hasn't fared well as a home underdog this season, going 9-20 ATS, outscored by 12 points on average. They're also 3-11 ATS the last 14 times they've come off a non-conference game, outscored by an average margin of 15.9 points, and that's exacerbated further by the fact that they're in for an obvious letdown off the win over what seemed to be a disinterested Celtics team. This wouldn't appear to be an easy game for the Pelicans to get up for until you realize that Oklahoma City took the last meeting in this series by a single point as an eight-point underdog in New Orleans back on January 6th. The Pelicans may have overlooked the Thunder in that one after they took the first meeting here on this floor by 33 points on December 31st. Take New Orleans (10*). | |||||||
04-27-21 | Thunder v. Celtics -11.5 | 119-115 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 33 m | Show | |
My selection is on Boston minus the points over Oklahoma City at 7:10 pm et on Tuesday. We haven't faded Oklahoma City much during its current 3-14-1 ATS slide but I will do so on Tuesday as the Thunder limp into Boston following back-to-back losses by 20+ points. Boston is expected to be without Kemba Walker and Jayson Tatum but I don't expect it to roll over in their absence. The Celtics are coming off an 0-2 trip to Brooklyn and Charlotte which included an ugly 21-point rout at the hands of the Hornets on Sunday afternoon. Note that Boston checks in a perfect 9-0 ATS the last nine times it has come off a double-digit road loss, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by a whopping average margin of 17.2 points in that situation. The C's average north of 125 points per game in that spot and should be able to feast on a Thunder squad that have allowed their last two opponents to shoot 51.6% and 54.7% from the field. Despite Sunday's poor showing, the Celtics are fairly locked-in defensively, having held five of their last eight opponents to 45.6% or worse shooting. Note that Oklahoma City averages just 94 points and loses by an average margin of 17.2 points when playing on the road after giving up 120 points or more this season. The Celtics took the first matchup in this series this season by 17 points in Oklahoma City back on March 27th and I expect a similar outcome here. Take Boston (10*). | |||||||
04-26-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Nuggets | 96-120 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Denver at 9:10 pm et on Monday. This would appear to be a pretty obvious fade spot for the Grizzlies as they wrap up a long, successful seven-game road trip with a second stop in Denver in less than a week. However, the Grizz have done nothing but impress and off another big performance in a win over the Blazers yesterday, I look for them to keep it rolling on Monday. While this is certainly a tough back-to-back spot for Memphis, it is worth noting that it managed its starters minutes well in yesterday's game, with no one playing more than 30 minutes. Jonas Valanciunas just returned yesterday after missing time due to a concussion so he should have fresh legs for this one. The Grizz know they can hang with the Nuggets having taken Denver to overtime (without Valanciunas and Dillon Brooks) just last week. Meanwhile, Denver was already without Jamal Murray and is now missing key secondary scorer Will Barton as well. The Nuggets shot the lights out in a lopsided win over the lowly Rockets on Saturday but that actually sets them up poorly here, noting they've gone 6-17 ATS the last 23 times they've come off a 55% or better shooting performance, outscored by an average margin of 4.3 points in that spot. They're also just 23-38 ATS after scoring 120 points or more over the last three seasons, outscored by 0.5 points on average in that situation. The Grizzlies are quite simply the hottest bet in the league and locked in defensively right now, having held their last three opponents to 45.2%, 47.9% and 37.1% shooting. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
04-25-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +6.5 | 104-111 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Sunday. Most have written off the Hawks with Trae Young out for an indefinite period with an ankle injury. However, Atlanta thrived in its first game without its superstar, delivering a 118-103 win over the Heat on Friday. Here, the Hawks catch the Bucks in a somewhat favorable spot with Milwaukee its second of back-to-back games after wrapping up a two-game sweep of the 76ers with a blowout win yesterday afternoon. While the Hawks lost Young, they did recently get Danilo Gallinari back from injury while Clint Capela could also return on Sunday, although I'm making this play assuming he can't go. The Bucks shot the lights out in the last two games against an undermanned 76ers squad but prior to that they had shot worse than 49% from the field in seven straight games. Note that they're just 18-32 ATS when on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of just 3.3 points in that spot. They hadn't been playing tough defense at all prior to yesterday's win and certainly caught a big break in that one with the Sixers missing both Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid in what amounted to a throwaway game for Philadelphia. The Hawks have been an underrated defensive team all season and check in having held 11 of their last 13 opponents to worse than 49% shooting. They're allowing just 110 points per game on 45.4% shooting at home this season. The Hawks will have revenge on their minds in this one having dropped both previous meetings against the Bucks this season, including a 120-109 setback in a poor all-around showing at home on April 15th. Note that the Hawks are 25-14 ATS at home revenging a loss against an opponent over the last two seasons, outscoring the opposition by 1.8 points on average in that situation. Better still, they're 18-7 ATS when at home revenging a double-digit loss against an opponent, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 3.7 points. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
04-25-21 | Cavs v. Wizards -9.5 | Top | 110-119 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
NBA Blowout Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington minus the points over Cleveland at 7:10 pm et on Sunday. The Wizards are absolutely rolling right now, taking full advantage of a favorable schedule to reel off seven straight wins, going 6-0-1 ATS along the way. I expect them to keep it rolling against the lowly, undermanned Cavs on Sunday. Cleveland was already in for a bit of a letdown after shooting better than 51% in each of its last two games, but now will be without its top offensive threat in Collin Sexton due to a concussion. While I'm a fan of Darius Garland, the budding star isn't capable of shouldering the entire load with a poor supporting cast around him. Keep in mind, the Cavs were already without Taurean Prince, who had been giving them solid minutes and offensive production before going down to injury last week. The Wizards certainly haven't been playing down to the level of competition lately, delivering blowout wins against the Kings, Pistons and Thunder (twice) during their current winning streak. Note that the Wizards are an excellent positive momentum play having gone 8-1 ATS when coming off a double-digit win this season. Meanwhile, the Cavs are a miserable 9-19 ATS as a road underdog this season, outscored by an average margin of 10.9 points. Washington is absolutely locked in defensively right now, having held its last five opponents to 43.4% or worse shooting - an incredible stretch of defensive dominance by today's NBA standards. This will be the first meeting between these two teams this season after the Cavs took a 113-108 decision against a much different Wizards squad here in Washington last February. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
04-23-21 | Nuggets -2 v. Warriors | Top | 97-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
NBA on ESPN Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Golden State at 10:10 pm et on Friday. Most were quick to write off the Nuggets after they lost Jamal Murray for the season to a torn ACL, interestingly enough in a game right here in San Francisco against the Warriors earlier this month. Instead of hanging their heads, the Nuggets have reeled off four straight victories with Nikola Jokic leading the way in his MVP-worthy campaign. While Denver has gone 0-8 ATS when on the road revenging a loss against an opponent this season, I think this one is a little different. The Nuggets certainly haven't forgotten that 116-107 loss here on April 12th and I'm confident they'll make amends for it with the Warriors in a tough spot, returning home following an eastern road trip that saw them start strong but finish poorly, blowing a fourth quarter lead in an eventual loss to the Wizards two nights ago. Here, Golden State will be playing its seventh game in the last 12 nights, in six different cities. It very much looked like a team that was running out of gas in Washington, shooting worse than 40% from the field against a below-average Wizards defense. The Nuggets will be playing their sixth game in the last 12 nights, but in just four different cities. They're set up well here, noting they've gone 21-9 ATS after losing at least two games in a row ATS over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 10.2 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Warriors have gone a miserable 1-10 ATS after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS over the last two seasons, outscored by an average margin of 11.1 points in that spot. The Nuggets are locked in at both ends of the floor right now, having outrebounded each of their last five opponents while holding eight straight opponents to worse than 50% shooting, a strong defensive run by today's NBA standards. Denver checks in ranked fourth in the league in floor percentage over its last four games while Golden State sits bottom-six in that category over the same stretch. The Nuggets are also top-five in extra scoring chances per game over their last three contests while the Warriors rank 29th. You get the picture. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
04-21-21 | Suns -1 v. 76ers | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Phoenix minus the points over Philadelphia at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. I really wanted to back the 76ers in this game but the more I look into the matchup, the more I like the Suns. Of course, what was originally keeping me from getting behind Philadelphia was its injury/illness concerns with Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons questionable to play. While it is likely at least one of the two will be good to go for this one, I'm still not sure it will be enough, and question how much they would really contribute here. The Suns are in an obvious letdown spot off the overtime win over the Bucks in Milwaukee two nights ago, but letdowns have been few and far between for this team this season, particularly on the road where they check in 18-7, outscoring opponents by 4.0 points per game. The Suns are a terrific positive momentum play, having gone 17-5 ATS on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 4.9 points in that situation. They're also an incredible 21-5 ATS after winning two of their last three games this season, outscoring opponents by a whopping 11.0 points per game in that spot. The 76ers are quite simply out of rhythm right now, barely getting by an undermanned Clippers squad last Friday night before falling to the Warriors in a 107-96 decision on Monday. They shot a miserable 42.2% and 39.3% in those two games, respectively. We've seen the Sixers fall in a number of step-up spots here at home in recent weeks. While they check in 22-6 SU at Wells Fargo Arena this season, half of those losses have come since March 17th. Phoenix has taken each of the last two meetings in this series, including a 120-111 win at home back on February 13th. Take Phoenix (10*). | |||||||
04-19-21 | Grizzlies v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 137-139 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
NBA Non-Division Game of the Year. My selection is on Denver minus the points over Memphis at 9:10 pm et on Monday. We won with the Grizzlies in their outright underdog victory in Milwaukee on Saturday night but I won't hesitate to switch gears and fade them here as they head to Denver in what I consider a throw-away game. Note that Memphis has now won three of its last four games SU and four in a row ATS but will be without Jonas Valanciunas due to a concussion on Monday and could also be missing Dillon Brooks, among others. This is a tough scheduling spot for the Grizz as they still have four games left on their current road trip, with a four-game in six-night stretch on deck. Meanwhile, the Nuggets lost Jamal Murray for the season with a torn ACL last week but proceeded to reel off consecutive wins in blowout fashion over the Heat and Rockets. While Memphis is playing its fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities, this will be just the Nuggets third game in the last six nights, with two of those contests coming here at home. Denver checks in 18-10 at Ball Arena this season, outscoring opponents by six points per game. The Nuggets have taken consecutive meetings in this series in Denver, going 1-0-1 ATS along the way. Take Denver (10*). | |||||||
04-17-21 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Bucks | Top | 128-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Memphis plus the points over Milwaukee at 9:10 pm et on Saturday. The Grizzlies will have revenge on their minds after they suffered a heart-breaking last-second loss against the Bucks on their home floor back on March 4th and I like their chances of taking Milwaukee down to the wire again here. While the Bucks are back home following a three-game road trip (in which they went a perfect 3-0) and had an off day yesterday, this is still a tough scheduling spot as this will be their 11th game since March 29th, in nine different cities no less. The Grizzlies are in a back-to-back spot, making the short trip from Chicago, but had the benefit of a three-game homestand prior to that. Of course, Memphis has been playing excellent basketball, having gone 13-3 ATS over its last 16 games. The Grizzlies have certainly been a streaky team and set up well here given their 14-5 ATS mark after winning consecutive games ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 3.9 points on average in that situation. Meanwhile, the Bucks check in just 21-33 ATS when coming off three more more consecutive victories over the last two seasons. I'll also point out that the Grizzlies have been outscored by an average margin of just 0.5 points when coming off a game in which they gave up 115 points or more, as is the case here off last night's 126-115 win in Chicago. Memphis has certainly held its own against the Bucks, going 3-2 ATS in the last five meetings, including an outright victory in its last trip to Milwaukee. Take Memphis (10*). | |||||||
04-16-21 | Clippers v. 76ers -2.5 | Top | 103-106 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Week. My selection is on Philadelphia minus the points over Los Angeles at 7:10 pm et on Friday. Some will be expecting a letdown from the 76ers here as they come off Wednesday's wire-to-wire win over the Nets but I don't see it happening. Perhaps that game wasn't quite as big as it could have been as Brooklyn didn't have the services of two-thirds of its 'big three', Kevin Durant and James Harden. Here, the Sixers host another elite opponent but do so knowing they've taken each of the last two meetings in this series in Philadelphia, but also with revenge on their minds following a 10-point loss against the Clippers in Los Angeles back on March 27th. The Clippers have already locked up a winning three-game road trip thanks to victories in Indiana and Detroit. Now they're in a tough spot, playing their fourth game in the last six nights, in four different cities, with another three-in-four spot up next beginning Sunday at home against Minnesota. It's still unknown whether the Clips will have Kawhi Leonard back in the lineup for Friday night's game. I would lean toward him playing but still like the 76ers in that situation. Note that Philadelphia is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite of six points or less, outscoring the opposition by 12.3 points on average in that spot. The 76ers are also 21-9 ATS when playing at home following an ATS loss, as is the case here after Wednesday's win but non-cover against the undermanned Nets, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points per game in that situation. Take Philadelphia (10*). | |||||||
04-15-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4.5 | 120-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show | |
My selection is on Atlanta plus the points over Milwaukee at 7:40 pm et on Thursday. There are injury concerns on both sides leading into this game with the status of Giannis and Trae at the top of every bettor's mind. Based on early line movement there's a good chance we'll see Giannis sit once again while Trae will likely give it a go, but I do like the Hawks regardless of the injury situation in this spot. Milwaukee is coming off back-to-back SU and ATS wins to open its current road trip but it's worth noting it hasn't put together a three-game ATS winning streak since way back in February. The Bucks are playing a wide-open style right now and while it has flustered their last two opponents (two overmatched teams in the Magic and Timberwolves) I believe the Hawks will do just fine. After holding their last two opponents to 37.2% or worse shooting we can certainly anticipate some regression from Milwaukee defensively here. Meanwhile, the Hawks are riding high off three straight wins (both SU and ATS) but still have plenty of room for improvement after shooting 45.2% and 47.6% from the field in their last two contests - both coming on the road against the Hornets and Raptors. Note that Milwaukee checks in 11-20 ATS the L31 times it has come off consecutive games scoring at least 110 points. The Bucks are also just 9-19 ATS the L28 times they've been in a three games in five days situation on the road, outscoring opponents by just 1.1 points per game in that spot. Take Atlanta (10*). | |||||||
04-14-21 | Mavs -2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 114-113 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
NBA Southwest Division Game of the Month. My selection is on Dallas minus the points over Memphis at 9:40 pm et on Wednesday. The Mavs are coming off consecutive home losses against the Spurs and 76ers with the latter coming in embarrassing form in a lifeless effort two nights ago (in front of a national audience on ESPN, no less). It shouldn't be difficult for the Mavs to get back up for this one-game road trip to Memphis on Wednesday and they're set up well to get back in the win column. Note that Dallas is 18-6 ATS in its last 24 games as a road favorite of six points or less, outscoring the opposition by 9.2 points per game in that situation. The Mavs are also a solid 39-25 ATS when coming off an ATS loss over the last two seasons, outscoring opponents by 5.3 points per game in that spot. The Grizzlies check in averaging just 106.2 points per game when playing at home after winning five or six of their last seven games ATS this season and should have hard time keeping up with the a Mavs squad that has inexplicably been better both offensively and defensively on the road compared to at home this season. Note that Dallas averages 118 points per game when playing on the road off consecutive ATS losses, as is the case here, over the last three seasons. Dallas took the first meeting in this series this season by 10 points back on February 22nd and has won two of its last three trips to Memphis, both SU and ATS. Take Dallas (10*). | |||||||
04-13-21 | Celtics v. Blazers -1 | Top | 116-115 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
NBA on TNT Game of the Month. My selection is on Portland minus the points over Boston at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. The Blazers should be in a foul mood when they take the court on Tuesday night after suffering a disappointing 107-98 loss at home against the defensive-minded Heat on Sunday. While the Blazers have certainly been scuffing their heels lately, dropping three of their last four games overall, I'm confident we'll see them bounce back against the resurgent Celtics on Tuesday. Note that Portland has outscored the opposition by 5.3 points per game when playing at home off an ATS loss over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Celtics have averaged just 105.4 points per game and have been outscored by 2.4 points per contest when coming off a win by 15 points or more this season, as is the case here. Boston delivered that blowout win on Sunday, rallying against what appeared to be a very disinterested Nuggets squad (Denver scored just eight fourth quarter points in the loss). Portland couldn't have played much worse, particularly at the offensive end of the floor, against the Heat on Sunday. I don't think the Blazers will have any trouble getting up for this nationally-televised game at home before heading on the road for a two-game trip to San Antonio and Charlotte. Portland has lost a number of games against marquee opponents here at home lately and I think that's why this line is as short as it is. Thi sis a 'put up or shut up' game of sorts and I'm confident we'll see Damian Lillard take charge and lead the Blazers to a strong bounce-back performance. Take Portland (10*). | |||||||
04-09-21 | Rockets +12 v. Clippers | Top | 109-126 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
NBA Western Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Houston plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Friday. This is a 'name your score' type of game for the Clippers but as we know from recent history, they don't always fare that well in that type of situation. We cashed the Magic in an outright underdog victory in a similar spot on March 30th. On that night, the Clippers were also playing the second of back-to-backs and also coming off consecutive games in which they shot 50% or better from the field. Here, we find Los Angeles coming off a victory over the Suns last night (we won with the 'under') - their third consecutive SU and ATS win. Note that the Clips have allowed 116.7 points per game when playing at home off consecutive ATS wins as a favorite over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by just 1.8 points per game in that situation. They've also gone just 8-21 ATS the last 29 times they've played at home off three consecutive home victories, outscoring opponents by just 1.6 points on average in that spot. Meanwhile, the Rockets have actually been playing some competitive basketball lately, going 4-3 ATS over their last seven contests, including an upset win over the Mavericks two nights ago - a game in which Dallas did put forth a quality effort with a full roster and no limits on minutes even though it was the front half of a back-to-back. The Rockets won't have John Wall on Friday night after he poured in 31 points on Wednesday but they also didn't have him two games back when they gave the Suns all they could handle in a narrow 133-130 loss. As bad as the Rockets have been at times this season, they've still only been outscored by 5.5 points per game on the road. I'm not sure how interested the Clippers will be in laying a beatdown here while Houston has shown that it hasn't quit on the season despite its miserable record. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
04-09-21 | Grizzlies v. Knicks +2 | Top | 129-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Month. My selection is on New York plus the points over Memphis at 7:40 pm et on Friday. The Knicks are in a bit of a lull right now, having lost five of their last six games but it's worth noting that four of those five games were played on the road and three of those losses almost certainly could have gone either way. While this looks like an awfully tough matchup on paper with the Grizzlies coming in off four straight victories, including a perfect 3-0 start to this current road trip, I expect New York to be up for the challenge. Note that the Grizz have caught a couple of favorable situations on this trip with the 76ers sitting Joel Embiid last Sunday and the Hawks missing a number of key cogs on Wednesday. After shooting a blistering 54.8% and 53.9% over their last two games, I'm certainly anticipating some offensive regression from the Grizzlies here, as they face a Knicks squad that allows just 104.7 points per game on 44.7% shooting at home this season. Note that New York is 10-1 ATS at home with the line set between +3 and -3 this season, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 8.9 points in those contests. Also note that the Knicks have outscored opponents by 3.7 points per game following a loss by six points or less this season, as is the case here. Meanwhile, the Grizz have been outscored by 2.5 points per game when playing on the road after winning four or five of their last six games over the last three seasons. Take New York (10*). | |||||||
04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga -4 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over Baylor at 9:20 pm et on Monday. We won with the 'over' in Gonzaga's thrilling semi-final victory over UCLA on Saturday. Here, I'll switch gears and look at the side as we back the Bulldogs in their final showdown with Baylor. I hesitate to say that the Zags merely survived Saturday's buzzer-beating win over UCLA. You could certainly make the case that both teams deserved the win on that night - the Zags were simply able to make one more shot than the Bruins. With that being said, I give a ton of credit to UCLA. It shot an exceptional 57.6% from the field, knocking down incredibly tough shots all night long. Keep in mind, that was only the third time all season that Gonzaga allowed an opponent to shoot 50% or better from the field. In two previous occurrences, the Bulldogs followed it up with an ATS victory, holding Auburn to 37.3% shooting in a 23-point rout on November 27th and limiting Creighton to 40.6% shooting in an 18-point victory earlier in this tournament. Considering the Bruins shot so well, and also held a 32-26 rebounding edge, the Zags should be incredibly pleased with the fact that they were able to come away victorious on Saturday. Here, I certainly don't expect Baylor to shoot nearly as well, nor do I expect the Zags to lose the rebounding battle (note they hadn't been outrebounded in a game since February 27th prior to Saturday's contest). Note that the Zags entered this tournament ranked 11th in the nation in total rebounding percentage and 13th in opponents floor percentage. By contrast, Baylor checked in ranked 44th in both of those categories. For Baylor's part, it shot an impressive 52.7% from the field in Saturday's blowout win over Houston. The Cougars were quite simply overmatched from the start in that game as the Bears jumped ahead early and never looked back. Now I question whether Baylor can get right back up to the necessary level of intensity to stage the upset against Gonzaga. Note that Saturday's game marked the first time in six games that the Bears shot better than 50% from the field. It was also the first time they outrebounded an opponent since a lopsided victory over Hartford in the opening round of this tournament. We know that Gonzaga prefers to play at a fast pace, entering the tournament ranked 16th nationally in possessions per game. Also note that the Zags have gone 28-14 ATS with the total set in the 150's over the last three seasons, as is the case here, outscoring opponents by an average margin of 26.1 points. Take Gonzaga (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | Thunder +11.5 v. Blazers | 85-133 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My selection is on Oklahoma City plus the points over Portland at 10:10 pm et on Saturday. We'll plug our nose and back the undermanned Thunder as they face the Blazers in Portland on Saturday night. Of course, Oklahoma City was routed by 37 points in Phoenix last night but that was against a Suns squad that is absolutely rolling right now. Here, the Thunder catch the Blazers playing their sixth game in the last 10 nights, in five different cities. The Blazers certainly looked like a tired team last night against Milwaukee, shooting 36.4% from the field while allowing the Bucks to shoot 54.4%. While Portland will certainly be eager to bounce back tonight, it's unlikely the Thunder will draw a great deal of motivation considering the Blazers already exacted revenge on the Thunder for an earlier-season home loss by winning by double-digits in Oklahoma City back on February 16th. The Blazers rarely blow anyone out here at home, where they've outscored the opposition by just 2.1 points per game this season. The Thunder check in 15-5 ATS when playing on the road off a double-digit loss over the last three seasons, outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 1.7 points in that situation. Meanwhile, Portland is a woeful 1-8 ATS at home after allowing 115 points or more in its last game this season, outscored by 7.9 points per game in that spot. Take Oklahoma City (10*). | |||||||
04-03-21 | Mavs v. Wizards +6 | Top | 109-87 | Loss | -108 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
NBA Non-Conference Game of the Year. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Dallas at 7:10 pm et on Saturday. I thankfully laid off my potential fade of the Mavs last night as they ended up defeating the Knicks by double-digits in New York. Here, I will go to the well with a fade of streaking Dallas, however, as it might struggle to find the proper level of motivation to draw on in the final installment of what has been a successful five-game road trip. The Mavs lone loss on the trip came one week ago tonight in New Orleans in a game where they sat both Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis. While I certainly expect both to play here, it wouldn't be outside the realm of possibility that Luka at the very least could be given another night off in this back-to-back situation - but we'll operate under the assumption that he does play. The Wizards didn't show up to play in Thursday's 29-point blowout loss in Detroit. You really do have to pick your spots wisely when it comes to the Wiz, but when they do show up motivated, you can generally count on a competitive game and I do expect them to step up here at home against the Mavs. Note that as poorly as things have gone in general for the Wiz in recent years, they've actually been outscored by just 0.2 points per game in their last 96 games played here at home. Meanwhile, the Mavs have outscored opponents by an average margin of just 1.3 points when coming off a win over the last two seasons and here they check in off three consecutive victories. Washington is in a favorable situation here as it has gone 19-9 ATS after losing consecutive games ATS over the last two seasons, actually outscoring the opposition by 0.3 points per game in that spot. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
04-02-21 | Bulls +12.5 v. Jazz | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
NBA Revenge Game of the Month. My selection is on Chicago plus the points over Utah at 9:10 pm et on Friday. I'll grab the generous helping of points with the Bulls here, even with the assumption that Zach LaVine won't be in the lineup. Chicago fell just short in Phoenix two nights ago as Devin Booker absolutely went off in a five-point Suns victory. Now at the tail-end of this four-game road trip, Chicago will be looking to at least salvage some positive momentum before returning home. Of course, that's a tall task against the league-leading Jazz. However, this has been a bit of an emotionally-draining week for Utah after its plane headed for Memphis was forced to make an emergency landing after hitting a flock of birds shortly after taking off. Donovan Mitchell was particularly shaken up following the experience and didn't make the trip to Memphis. Utah ended up getting past the Grizzlies by four points in a game where we won with the 'under'. The Bulls are in a good spot here, noting that they've gone an incredible 20-5 ATS when coming off a loss by six points or less over the last two seasons. They're also 10-2 ATS when playing on the road after scoring 115 points or more in their last game this season, outscoring opponents by 5.5 points per game in that spot. There's really not much negative we can say about the Jazz as they've been dominant this season. I simply feel this is a spot where they're simply looking to keep their winning streak intact rather than win by margin. Take Chicago (10*). | |||||||
03-31-21 | Blazers v. Pistons +7 | Top | 124-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
NBA Underdog Game of the Week. My selection is on Detroit plus the points over Portland at 7:10 pm et on Wednesday. After an extended stay in Florida - a successful one at that - I think this might be a tough game for the Blazers to get up for on Wednesday night as they look to wrap up a perfect 4-0 eastern road swing. Portland has been a solid road team all season, going 14-9 SU and ATS, however it's been a dead heat in terms of scoring averages as it puts up 115.7 points per game while giving up, you guessed it, 115.7 points per game away from home. Also note that the Blazers have been outscored by an average margin of 3.8 points per game after winning four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons. They've also been outscored by 2.9 points per game on average when coming off an ATS win over the last two seasons. For their part, the Pistons have been a solid spread team at home this season, going 12-9 ATS, outscored by just 1.5 points per game on average. They check into tonight's game having gone a profitable 7-3 ATS over their last 10 games overall. Note that Detroit owns a stellar 17-7 ATS mark after losing four of its last five games this season, as is the case here, actually outscoring the opposition by 0.4 points per game in that situation. With Portland looking forward to getting back home to host Giannis and the Bucks on Friday, look for the Pistons to keep this one competitive on Wednesday. Take Detroit (10*). | |||||||
03-30-21 | Magic +11.5 v. Clippers | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My selection is on Orlando plus the points over Los Angeles at 10:10 pm et on Tuesday. Yes, the Magic cleared out over half of their starting five prior to the trade deadline last week but since then they've gone a perfect 2-0 ATS and now catch another favorable situation against the Clippers on Tuesday night. Los Angeles played through a number of key absences last night to rout the Bucks by 24 points. While the Clips have enjoyed tremendous success on the second of back-to-back nights this season, this is going to be an awfully tough one for them to get up for and when you factor in that they're also playing their third game in four nights, and off four consecutive double-digit wins, I can certainly see them taking a bit of a breather. The Magic have actually been outscored by just 1.9 points per game when coming off a road loss over the last three seasons. Meanwhile, the Clippers have outscored opponents by just 4.7 points on average when playing at home off an ATS win over the last three seasons. The Magic check in 29-16 ATS when playing on the road following four or five ATS wins in their last six games, as is the case here, outscored by just 2.1 points per game in that situation. Finally, Orlando could get a boost with the expected return of three-point specialist Terrence Ross on Tuesday as well. Take Orlando (10*). | |||||||
03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga -8 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
Elite Eight Game of the Year. My selection is on Gonzaga minus the points over USC at 7:15 pm et on Tuesday. Credit USC for reaching the Elite Eight on the strength of some truly incredible shooting performances over the last couple of games. The Trojans shot better than 57% against both Kansas and Oregon and enter tonight's contest having shot 50% or better in four straight games going back to the Pac-12 Tournament earlier this month. Keep in mind, only once previously this season did the Trojans shoot better than 50% from the field in three consecutive games, and that took place right out of the gates in a stretch that saw them face the likes of Cal Baptist and Montana (along with a solid BYU squad). While USC has enjoyed an incredible run, I expect it to run out of magic here, and it's certainly worth noting that the Trojans have gone 0-7 ATS in their seven straight-up losses this season, losing four of those games by nine points or more. What more can be said about Gonzaga? They were the heavily favored to win this tournament at the outset for a reason and have only gotten better with each passing game. While the Bulldogs have shot better than 55% from the field in two of their three tournament games to date, that's only par for the course really, noting that their Round of 32 win over Oklahoma marked the first time since January 23rd that they shot worse than 50%. The Zags are tops in the nation in both offensive efficiency and floor percentage and play at a pace that should make the Trojans uncomfortable, noting that USC entered the tourney ranked north of 200 in terms of possessions per game. I don't expect USC to afford itself enough extra scoring opportunities to keep pace here, noting that it entered the tournament ranked 311th in steals per possessions, 123rd in turnovers per possession and 98th in extra scoring chances per game. By contrast, Gonzaga ranked 41st, 36th and 32nd in those three categories, respectively. Take Gonzaga (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor -7.5 | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
My selection is on Baylor minus the points over Arkansas at 9:55 pm et on Monday. A lot of folks were obviously down on Baylor entering this tournament after it sleepwalked its way to an early exit in the Big 12 Tournament a week earlier. Even in the Bears NCAA Tournament opener against Hartford (and subsequently in the first half of their second game against Wisconsin) we saw some rather uninspired basketball. However, over their last 60 minutes played, the Bears have turned it on and have left the opposition in the dust. I expect to see continued progression from Baylor on Monday as it takes on Arkansas. It's worth noting that the Bears will be playing just their second game in the last eight days here on Monday as it's a spot they've absolutely thrived in over the last couple of seasons, allowing an average of just 57.2 points per game and outscoring the opposition by an average margin of 17.3 points (going 13-5 ATS in those games). I'll also points out that Baylor has gone 14-5 ATS, outscoring opponents by 10.1 points per game when playing away from home off of three straight wins, as is the case here. Despite winning all three tournament games to this point, there's still plenty of room for improvement when it comes to the Bears as they've actually been outrebounded by two over their last two contests and have yet to shoot better than 45.5% from the field in the tourney to date. Keep in mind, we're talking about a Baylor squad that ranked second in the nation in offensive efficiency and third in floor percentage not to mention a respectable 44th in total rebounding percentage heading into the tournament. Arkansas obviously wants to play at a fast pace but I'm not sure that will serve it well in this particular matchup. Baylor certainly has the athleticism to counteract the Hogs in transition and ultimately afford itself extra possessions, noting that the Bears are a top-10 team in extra scoring chances per game this season. Take Baylor (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | 61-67 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 19 m | Show | |
My selection is on Houston minus the points over Oregon State at 7:15 pm et on Monday. Oregon State has enjoyed a run for the ages going back to the Pac-12 Tournament and now finds itself just one win away from an improbable Final Four appearance. I believe the clock is about to strike midnight on this Cinderella team on Monday, however, as the Beavers run into a dominant Cougars squad. Houston entered this tournament checking all the boxes and we cashed a ticket with the Cougars in their opening round rout of Cleveland State. While I haven't gone back to the well with them since, I will get behind them here. Keep in mind, Houston checked into this tournament ranked top-five in the nation in offensive efficiency and top-12 in floor percentage. The list goes on and on; ninth in total rebounding percentage, 16th in steals per possession, ninth in block percentage, seventh in opponents floor percentage, first in opponents effective field goal percentage, first in extra scoring chances per game - you get the picture. In start contrast, Oregon State ranked outside the top-100 in both offensive efficiency and floor percentage, 189th in total rebounding percentage, 274th in opponents effective field goal percentage and a truly miserable 298th in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. That really helps illustrate just how improbable the Beavers run has been as they've taken down some elite opponents. We know that Oregon State likes to play at a slow pace but so does Houston. The Cougars have consistently done it better, however. If the Beavers didn't have everyone's attention prior to Saturday's dominant victory over Loyola-Chicago, they do now. I don't think they'll catch Houston napping the same way they did against the Ramblers. Loyola's downfall could very well have been its hot start as it jumped out to a big early lead and probably thought it would cruise from there. The Beavers took advantage of the Ramblers complacency - again something that isn't likely to happen here. Take Houston (10*). | |||||||
03-29-21 | Pacers v. Wizards +5 | Top | 124-132 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
NBA Eastern Conference Game of the Month. My selection is on Washington plus the points over Indiana at 7:10 pm et on Monday. We saw this line open a little higher than expected with Bradley Beal questionable to play after exiting with a hip injury on Saturday. I would operate under the assumption that Beal won't play on Monday - should he be able to go that will serve as an added bonus. I like the spot for the Wizards regardless. There's no question this is a tough spot for the Pacers to get up for as they look ahead to a pair of much tougher home games against the Heat and Hornets later this week. Washington is coming off a 14-point rout of Detroit on Saturday night, shooting better than 46% from the field for a seventh consecutive game while holding the opposition to under 39% shooting for the second straight contest. While Washington is thought of as an Eastern Conference doormat, it has held its own here at home this season, going 11-12 ATS while being outscored by less than four points per game. The Pacers are outscoring opponents by just 0.6 points per game on the road this season. Indiana checks in off consecutive victories over the Pistons and Mavs but it's certainly worth noting that Dallas was without Luka Doncic in the latter contest. The Pacers check into a miserable spot here having gone a woeful 1-11 ATS after scoring 105 points or more in five straight games this season, outscored by six points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, the Wizards average an impressive 122.9 points per game playing at home off an ATS win this season, outscored by just 0.9 points on average in that spot. The Pacers are averaging 113 points per game overall this season but that average drops to 108.1 ppg when coming off a win over the last three seasons. Take Washington (10*). | |||||||
03-27-21 | Mississippi State v. Louisiana Tech +1 | Top | 84-62 | Loss | -112 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
NIT Game of the Year. My selection is on Louisiana Tech plus the points over Mississippi State at 3 pm et on Saturday. Most bettors will likely back Mississippi State by default at virtually a pk'em price in this one as it comes from a power conference in the SEC while Louisiana Tech is out of the far less respected C-USA. I like the Bulldogs' (La. Tech) chances of staging the minor upset, however, as they come in playing some of their best basketball of the season and match up well here. It's worth noting that Louisiana Tech ranks an impressive eighth in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 11th in opponents effective field goal percentage this season. While Mississippi State has the better offense, I do think that Louisiana Tech, which comes in having scored 70+ points in six of its last seven games, can hang. Note that Mississippi State ranks just 161st in the country in steals per possession and conversely, ranks a miserable 319th in turnovers per possession on offense. With Mississippi State ranking 248th in the country in possessions per game, it isn't going to overwhelm Louisiana Tech with its pace here either. Louisiana State checks in as a positive momentum play having gone 10-1 ATS after allowing 65 points or less in consecutive games this season, outscoring opponents by 14.6 points per game in that situation. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is just 1-9 ATS following a close victory by six points or less over the last two seasons, outscored by 5.1 points per game in that spot. Take Louisiana Tech (10*). | |||||||
03-27-21 | Oregon State v. Loyola-Chicago -6.5 | Top | 65-58 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
CBB Sweet 16 Game of the Year. My selection is on Loyola-Chicago minus the points over Oregon State at 2:40 pm et on Saturday. We won one of our big ticket plays backing Oregon State in its win over Oklahoma State last round but I won't hesitate to switch gears and go against the Beavers here as they go up against Loyola-Chicago in the Sweet 16. The Ramblers are by no means a 'Cinderella' team. They've turned in a tremendous season so far, winning 26 of 30 games, leaning on their wealth of talent and experience to reach the Sweet 16, even if few gave them a chance against Illinois last Sunday. This is a team that is certainly comfortable being in the 'favorite' role, having been the front-runner in the Missouri Valley Conference for much of the season. If any team is going to suffer a letdown here, it's not going to be the Ramblers off the upset win over one-seed Illinois, instead I feel that Oregon State might have a tough time getting its emotions running as high as it did against 'name' programs like Tennessee and Oklahoma State in the first two rounds of this tournament. The Beavers are undoubtedly deserving of respect as they've gotten hot at the right time, parlaying a Pac-12 Tournament championship run into two victories here in the NCAA Tournament. However, let's not lose sight of the fact that this is a team that entered the tourney ranked 274th in the nation in opponents floor percentage and 190th in opponents effective field goal percentage, not to mention its dreadful 298th ranking in opponents non-blocked two-point percentage. Like Loyola-Chicago, Oregon State plays at a slow pace, ranking 316th in the country in possessions per game. But the Ramblers do it much better, entering the tournament ranked 26th in the country in offensive efficiency and 25th in floor percentage. By contrast, the Beavers sat outside of the top-100 in both of those categories. The Pac-12 is being given plenty of respect now with four teams reaching the Sweet 16. However, noting that Loyola-Chicago has gone 10-3 ATS when playing away from home off three or more consecutive wins this season, outscoring the opposition by 13.1 points on average, while also going 15-4 ATS off a double-digit victory, outscoring opponents by 16.8 points per game in that situation, I'll gladly back the Ramblers laying a relatively short number here. Take Loyola-Chicago (10*). |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |