Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09-20-21 | Lions v. Packers -11.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (8:15 ET): The Packers were rightfully skewered for a horrendous opening week loss to the Saints. They lost 38-3 (were 3.5-point favorites for the neutral site contest) and gained a meager 229 yards of total offense in the process. But this week they are facing the Lions, one of the worst teams in all of football and I say Aaron Rodgers bounces back with a huge primetime showing. The L11 times they have hosted Detroit, the Pack are 9-2 SU with Rodgers throwing 21 TDs and 4 INTs. Green Bay is also looking to win its ninth straight home opener tonight and they should do so by a wide margin. Lay the points. Detroit did cover the spread in Week 1, but they were very fortunate to do so. At home, they trailed the 49ers 41-17 in the fourth quarter before two quick touchdowns (both followed by two-point conversions) allowed them to sneak through the proverbial “back door.” That made me happy as I took the points with the Lions. But again, it was very lucky as the second touchdown came after an onside kick recovery. Rodgers should have no problem shredding a Lions defense which gave up 8.0 yards per play to San Francisco and is now without CB Jeff Okudah for the remainder of the season (ACL). The Lions won’t be favored in a single game this season and they are 31st in my power ratings (ahead of only Houston). Obviously, I dropped Green Bay after last week’s performance, but they still have massive edges on both sides of the ball in this NFC North matchup. Perhaps we can just chalk up last week to a case of Rodgers not playing in the preseason or the fact the game was moved to a neutral site because of Hurricane Ida. Whatever reason you want to go with, I’m calling it a “one week aberration” as last year’s MVP should bounce back with a huge performance tonight. The Packers are 16-5 ATS off an ATS loss and 8-1 ATS off a SU loss. 10* Green Bay | |||||||
09-19-21 | Chiefs v. Ravens +4 | Top | 35-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
9* Baltimore (8:20 ET): Even though the Ravens are on a short week and lost their opener, my power rankings still call this SNF matchup with the Chiefs a pick ‘em. There are definitely some issues with Baltimore right now. Injuries at the running back position plus a defense that doesn’t look quite as good as last year are the primary ones. But lest we forget how good this team has been the last few seasons. They are 9-1 ATS as an underdog since the start of the 2018 season. That includes 6-1 with Lamar Jackson as the starter and the Ravens are 5-2 straight up in those seven games. The only previous time that Jackson was a home dog came against New England in ‘19. Baltimore won that game 37-20. Kansas City has been living very dangerously going back to the second half of last season. They are 2-10 ATS their last 12 games, excluding preseason. It was only a four-point win at home over Cleveland last week, 33-29, where the Chiefs’ defense gave up a horrendous 8.2 yards per play. I played the Browns plus the points in that one, a wire to wire cover that saw them leading outright for most of the game, including 22-10 at the half. Were it not for a big special teams play (Browns’ punter mishandled the snap and ended up turning the ball over deep in his own territory), KC likely does not win that game. Had they lost, my guess is this spread would have been a lot closer to ‘pick em. Getting back to the Chiefs “living dangerously,” nine of their last ten wins (regular season and playoffs) have been by six points or less. That kind of good luck in close games is bound to regress eventually and I’m not going to be surprised at all when they lose a couple of close ones this season. While the Ravens are 0-3 SU vs. KC the L3 seasons, two of those games were decided by five points or less and one went to overtime. I think people are writing off Baltimore far too quickly. They are certainly able to win this game, so take the points. 9* Baltimore | |||||||
09-19-21 | Vikings +3.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:05 ET): I know that the Vikings have a banged up defense going into Arizona this week. And that the Cardinals were incredibly impressive in torching the Titans 38-13 in Week 1. But Minnesota is certainly capable of moving the ball as well. They gained over 400 yards in an OT loss to the Bengals in Week 1. Losing that game as three-point favorites, the Vikes have now failed to cover eight straight in the regular season. That’s the longest active ATS losing streak in the league. But I still believe this team is going to be improved in 2021. So take the points as I’m anticipating an outright upset here. How can I still be so confident in the Vikings improving? Well, as I wrote last week, this team was incredibly unlucky in a number of key areas last year. Special teams and lack of success on third/fourth downs were the biggest culprits in addition to a defense slipping to 29th in yards allowed. The kicking game and late down success rate can vary wildly from year to year. The defensive ranking was very uncharacteristic for a Zimmer-coached team. So that stuff is going to improve. The offense will still be good with Kirk Cousins (351 yards LW) and Dalvin Cook running the show. Minnesota has covered five straight times vs. Arizona. The Cardinals won SU as a dog in Week 1, but now they are favorites, a role that they are just 3-9 ATS in the previous two seasons. Not only that, they have a losing SU record (5-7) as chalk. Kyler Murray is 2-5 ATS as a home favorite in his career. The Vikings defense, even banged up, is better than the Titans’. I’ve never been sold on Cardinals’ HC Kliff Kingsbury’s in-game decision making. The Vikings were called for a ton of 1H penalties last week, which shouldn’t be repeated. They have only been a dog for two of those eight straight ATS losses and those games came at Tampa and New Orleans. Arizona is not on that level. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
09-19-21 | Falcons +13 v. Bucs | Top | 25-48 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
9* Atlanta (4:05 ET): Underdogs in division games are generally a solid bet the first five weeks of the NFL season. Such teams have cashed over 60% of the time going back to 2006. Double digit dogs in divisional matchups tend to always catch my eye as more often than not you get closer games than expected when the opponents are familiar with one another. So I’ll take a flier on Atlanta here despite the fact they were blown out at home last week, 32-6 by Philadelphia. The Falcons have covered seven of the last eight times they’ve gotten 10 or more points from the oddsmakers. The defending Super Bowl Champs nearly lost the season opener, needing a late drive from Tom Brady to set up the game-winning field goal. Not only did Tampa Bay barely escape against Dallas last Thursday, but HC Bruce Arians is 0-4 ATS all-time as a double digit favorite. So that’s another reason to take the points in this NFC South matchup. Then you’ve got the fact that the Bucs turned the ball over four times against the Cowboys while the defense gave up 450 total yards. Now Dallas is more talented than Atlanta, but I think the Falcons will score enough to stay within the number here. TB allowed 30 first downs last week! Now I know what you’re saying. The Falcons only scored SIX points last week. It was a dreadful showing, one that the new coaching staff should be embarrassed about. But Arthur Smith will have his team ready here. Remember that Atlanta still has QB Matt Ryan. Eight of their 12 losses last season were by seven points or less as they were far better than their record. Seven times they lost a game by less than six points. That includes a blown 17-0 halftime lead against Brady and the Bucs. TB will be without starting CB Sean Murphy-Bunting and did not tackle well in the first game. 9* Atlanta | |||||||
09-19-21 | 49ers v. Eagles +3 | Top | 17-11 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Few - if any - teams outperformed my Week 1 expectations more than the Eagles did. They went down to Atlanta and thumped the favored Falcons by a score of 32-6. I don’t think anybody saw Philly starting the year 2-0, but we can use that to our advantage here as they host San Francisco in Week 2 and are getting points. My power rankings label this game as a “pick ‘em,” so there’s some clear value right off the bat. Throw in the fact that San Francisco has already endured some key injuries and I’ll definitely be taking the points in this matchup. It was a miracle cover on the Lions last week when I went against the 49ers. Certainly things did not look good for much of the games, especially when SF led 41-17 early in the 4Q. But an incredible series of events led to Detroit sneaking in through “the back door.” The Niners did put up a ton of points & yards (442), but they don’t get to face the lousy Lions defense every week. The Eagles did not allow a single pass play of more than 20 yards against the Falcons. Also concerning for the Niners was their own defense giving up 430 yards in last week’s win. But worst of all was two key players - RB Raheem Mosert and CB Jason Verrett - being lost to season-ending injuries. What a blow to both sides of the ball! HC Kyle Shanahan has to be thinking “not again!” (The 49ers were among the most injured teams LY). Meanwhile, things couldn’t have gone any better for the Eagles in Nick Sirianni’s coaching debut. QB Jalen Hurts had a career-high passer rating. WR Jalen Reagor had a career-high six catches. I also like rookie WR DeVonta Smith, who also had six catches in his first pro game. The defense didn’t allow a point over the last 44 minutes of game time. Might everyone have underrated this Eagles’ team coming into the season? It’s possible and as I wrote last week, San Francisco has not been good as a favorite under Shanahan (now 7-17-2 ATS). 8* Philadelphia | |||||||
09-19-21 | Broncos v. Jaguars +6 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): While no team outperformed my expectations more in Week 1 than Philadelphia did (see elsewhere in 3-pack), no team was a bigger disappointment than Jacksonville. The Jaguars laid a major egg in Urban Meyer’s pro debut, losing 37-21 to who we all expect to be the worst team in the league this season (Houston). The market has quickly turned against Meyer, installing him as a big underdog for his 1st home game. Admittedly, the Jags have lost 16 straight regular season games. But it’s difficult to disregard the fact they were favored on the road last week. I’m taking the points here. Jacksonville may have had the league’s worst record in 2020, but Denver was the only team not to be favored in a single game. Now the Broncos will open as favorites in each of their first three 2021 games, so improvement is clearly expected here. Teddy Bridgewater is the new QB, providing some much needed stability on the offensive side of the ball. The Broncos’ defense was pretty good LY, so I can see why people are bullish on this team. But expecting them to win B2B road games by a significant margin? Not sure I’d be that optimistic. HC Vic Fangio is just 1-4 ATS off his L5 SU wins. Denver won 27-13 at the Giants in Week 1. The lookahead line for this game was Denver -2.5. I don’t think that beating one of the worst teams in the league justifies the number moving so much. The Jacksonville offense did average 5.8 yards per play last week with #1 overall DC Trevor Lawrence attempting 51 passes. Three interceptions really doomed Lawrence in his first NFL start, but I think he’s going to take better care of the ball here. Meyer can’t afford to get blown out again and I think his team will keep this one close. 8* Jacksonville | |||||||
09-18-21 | Tulane +14.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 21-61 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 19 m | Show |
8* Tulane (8:00 ET): This is Tulane’s second game against a ranked opponent this year. The first, while not a SU win, was certainly a “moral victory” of sorts. It was an ATS victory as well as they stayed within a monster 31-point number against top five Oklahoma. Now we’ve seen many teams stay within generous numbers such as that one. But in this instance, the Green Wave only lost the game by five points (40-35). So what I’m saying here is they will not be intimidated when they pay a visit to Oxford this Saturday night to take on #16 Ole Miss. Last week saw Tulane win 69-20 over FCS Morgan State. Ole Miss’ season got off to a rousing start with a Labor Day beatdown of Louisville, 43-24 as nine-point favorites. That was without HC Lane Kiffin, who was in COVID protocol. If you recall, I went with the Under and despite the high score, that particular bet did cash. As impressive as the Rebels’ offense has been so far (they also hung 54 on Austin Peay last week), a lot of the focus has been on an improved defense. But realize that “improvement” has taken them from 126th in the FBS (which was next to last) in yards allowed last season to 73rd this season. This Ole Miss defense is about to receive its stiffest test yet from a Tulane offense that can match the firepower they’ve got here in Oxford Ole Miss QB Matt Corral is one of the top signal callers in the country, but so too is Tulane’s Michael Pratt. The Green Wave have scored 104 points in two games and what makes the performance against OU all the more impressive is that they had to deal with the game being moved to Norman due to Hurricane Ida. Also make note of Tulane’s special teams. They lead the FBS in net punting and punt return defense. The underdog is going to put up a bunch of points in this game and thus should easily stay within the two touchdown spread. The Green Wave have covered 17 of their last 26 games overall. 8* Tulane | |||||||
09-18-21 | Stanford -12 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 41-23 | Win | 100 | 49 h 19 m | Show |
8* Stanford (8:00 ET): Both teams are off shocking upset victories, so the whole “letdown” is really a non-factor in this game. In the case of Stanford, their upset win was more “shocking” in terms of the point spread. They went to the Coliseum as 17-point underdogs last Saturday and beat USC 42-28. An 87-yard TD run by Nathaniel Peat opened the scoring for the Cardinal, who never trailed. The beatdown of the Trojans was so severe that they ended up firing Clay Helton after the game. The biggest takeaway for Stanford was the play of QB Tanner McKee, who threw for 234 yards and 2 TDs in his first start. The most shocking thing about Vanderbilt last week is that they won at all. The Commodores had dropped 11 in a row before winning at Colorado State 24-21 as 6-point dogs. It was a 38-yard FG with 19 seconds left that gave Clark Lea his first career win as head coach. In Lea’s first game, the Commies lost 23-3 to a FCS school (East Tennessee State) as 21-point favorites. Somewhat ironically, it was ETSU that provided Vandy its last win, back in 2019. The Commodores had lost 13 in a row to FBS teams before last week. It should be pointed out that they were outgained by 103 yards against CSU, another team that lost its opener to a FCS opponent. This is the 1st ever meeting between these academic powerhouses. It’s also the first time ever a Pac 12 team has paid a visit to Vanderbilt Stadium. Stanford has never visited a SEC school either. So there’s a real sense of unfamiliarity here. I think the real key is going to be McKee. He showed why he was such a prized recruit in leading the upset of USC. Thus you can pretty much disregard Stanford’s opening week game, a 24-7 loss to Kansas State, as McKee didn’t start that one. But you can’t discount just how bad Vandy is. If the Cardinal can hang 40+ points again, then they should have no difficulty covering the spread here. They led Southern Cal 42-13 last week. Lay the points. 8* Stanford | |||||||
09-18-21 | Colorado State v. Toledo -13.5 | Top | 22-6 | Loss | -109 | 45 h 20 m | Show |
10* Toledo (4:00 ET): There’s a school of thought that says this is a prime letdown spot for Toledo, who is coming off a tough three-point loss at Notre Dame last week. The Rockets may have lost the game in South Bend 32-29, but they easily left with the cash as 16.5-point underdogs. Now they turn around and are laying more than two scores at home. Normally, I might agree with the prevailing wisdom. But in this instance, the Rockets are facing a Colorado State team that is off to as bad a start as anybody in College Football. The Rams are 0-2 with losses to South Dakota State and Vanderbilt where they’ve missed the spread by a combined 30+ points. I’ll lay the number Saturday afternoon at the Glass Bowl. Toledo got its first ever cover as a double digit dog under HC Jason Candle last week (previously 0-6 ATS). They led the Fighting Irish outright with just over a minute to go. They led at halftime as well. This is a team that should be in contention for a MAC Championship as it returns 21 starters from a team that outgained its six conference foes by an average of 131 YPG last season. Before facing Notre Dame, the Rockets blew out Norfolk State 49-10. There was no look ahead there. I don’t expect there to be a letdown here. But the crux of this play centers around just how bad CSU has been so far. Their first game was a 42-23 home loss to FCS South Dakota State. The Rams never led, trailed by as many as 26 and gave up almost 500 yards. Then they lost by three, again at home, to a very bad Vanderbilt team that had previously lost 11 in a row. The Rams have fallen into the bottom 10 of my power ratings and I now project them to win just two games this season. If you can believe it, those same power ratings say this should be a four touchdown spread! I’ll trust the numbers! 10* Toledo | |||||||
09-18-21 | Baylor -17.5 v. Kansas | Top | 45-7 | Win | 100 | 45 h 50 m | Show |
9* Baylor (3:30 ET): Kansas suffered a real “bad beat” last Friday at Coastal Carolina. I know because I had the misfortune of playing the Jayhawks. They led outright (9-7) at the end of the first quarter and it was only a six-point game midway through the third. Keep in mind they were getting 26.5 points. As you can surmise, things went badly down the stretch as Coastal Carolina scored the game’s final three touchdowns to make it 49-22. A missed XP early in the game cost KU bettors the cover and to add insult to injury, the team chose to go for it on fourth down (rather than kick a FG) on the final drive. While some may look at a result like that and figure Kansas is “due” this week, I happen to think quite the opposite. After playing hard for three quarters against a Top 25 opponent last week, I wonder if the Jayhawks will come out “flat” for the Big 12 opener. Now the game is at home. But it’s also against Baylor, who has beaten them 11 consecutive times and covered nine straight. I laid a similar number with the Bears last year in Waco and they won easily 47-14. Each of the L9 victories over Kansas have been by a minimum of 19 points. While it may not get as ugly as last year, I’m laying the points again. The Jayhawks have not won a Big 12 game in some time. In fact, it was Oct 26, 2019. It’s been 12 straight losses since. The L10 seasons have seen them go 5-84 SU in Big 12 play! They also only beat FCS South Dakota by a field goal in the opener (were slightly outgained). Remember that 1st year HC Lance Leipold was hired late (after the spring) due to the dismissal of Les Miles. Baylor is off its highest yardage and point total since the Art Briles era. Now the victim was an FCS school (Texas Southern), but the Bears will still take it. They are 2-0 SU having also defeated Texas State on the road, 29-20, in the opener. This is more of a fade on Kansas than anything else. 9* Baylor | |||||||
09-18-21 | Michigan State v. Miami-FL -6 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 21 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (12:00 ET): First impressions are always key and in the case of 2021 Miami football, the first impression wasn’t very good. “The U” was slaughtered by Alabama in their first game, losing 44-13. Not that it was expected to be that close; the Hurricanes were 19.5-point underdogs against the Tide despite being ranked #14 in the country at the time. But still it was a poor effort in front of a National TV audience. Manny Diaz’s team doesn’t get a “second chance at a first impression,” but at least they were able to defeat Appalachian State here in Coral Gables last week, even if it was only by a score of 27-25 (as seven-point chalk). With Miami 0-2 against the spread, Michigan State has the feel of a very “public dog” this weekend. The Spartans are 2-0 SU and ATS having gone on the road and upset Northwestern (as 3-point underdogs) in Week 1 and then handled their business against FCS Youngstown State (won 42-14 as 27-point favorites) in Week 2. In both games, Sparty scored a 75-yard TD on its first play from scrimmage. But now they are back on the road and facing their toughest opponent to date. After going 2-5 SU in Mel Tucker’s first season in East Lansing, Sparty was pegged by some to finish last in the Big 10 East this season. So excuse me if I am still a little skeptical of what they bring to the table. Miami was expected to battle with North Carolina for the top spot in the ACC Coastal. It’s been a rough start to the season in the ACC, but if the ‘Canes end up with only the loss to Alabama on their resume, I think they’ll be smiling down on South Beach. This is a more experienced team compared to Michigan State and they are much stronger at the QB position with D’Eriq King. Miami has moved the ball okay so far, the problem has been scoring only two touchdowns on eight red zone opportunities. That’ll change. Michigan State had been just 2-8 SU/ATS as a road dog the previous two seasons before the opening week upset of what promises to be one of the weaker Big 10 teams this season. The Spartans’ offensive line, which has done its job thus far, is in for a rude awakening against this Miami defensive front. 8* Miami FL | |||||||
09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 41 h 20 m | Show |
8* West Virginia (12:00 ET): The Mountaineers can ill-afford a second loss this early in the season. They lost the season opener at Maryland 30-24 as 2.5-point chalk due in large part to an inability to run the football (just 48 carries on 21 yards). However, a -4 turnover margin was the biggest culprit in that upset loss which wasn’t decided until the fourth quarter. Last week was the classic “get-well game” in Morgantown as WVU routed FCS Long Island 66-0, scoring on all of its first eight possessions including seven TDs. Fortunately, the ‘Neers get to stay at home this week for what should be a much tougher game - against #15 Virginia Tech - who is looking for its first 3-0 start in four seasons. I’m laying the points. Home field advantage has proven vital for WVU in the past when facing non-conference opponents. They have not lost here to a non-conference foe since #2 LSU beat them back in 2011. They are 18-0 SU since that time. This will be Virginia Tech’s 1st road game of 2021. They are below .500 (7-8 straight up) away from Blacksburg the previous three seasons. What is interesting about this number is that you’ve got an unranked team laying points to the #15 team in the country. In this situation, it has always been smart to back the unranked chalk. Since 2016, unranked faves are 16-7 SU when facing a Top 20 opponent. I’ve got no problem laying a number this short in Morgantown. As I just said, Va Tech is now ranked 15th in the country, which is something I don’t think many expected to see this season. They opened with a 17-10 upset of North Carolina, a game where they were outgained 354-296. They also barely outgained Middle Tennessee State last week (383-349). My own power ratings aren’t nearly as bullish on the Hokies, placing them 27th in the country right now. They just lost TE James Mitchell to a season-ending knee injury. WVU had a solid defense LY for Neal Brown, allowing only 20.5 points and 291 yards per game. This is the most experienced team in Brown’s three years here. With Oklahoma up next on the docket, the Mountaineers REALLY can’t afford a loss this week. Adding more fuel to the fire is the fact the program’s last win over Va Tech was in 2003. 8* West Virginia | |||||||
09-18-21 | New Mexico v. Texas A&M -29.5 | Top | 0-34 | Win | 100 | 41 h 20 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (12:00 ET): The 7th ranked Aggies are coming off a very lethargic 10-7 win over unranked Colorado last week. Now that game was in Boulder and Jimbo Fisher did lose his starting QB (Haynes King) to injury. Zach Calzada will get the start this week. The fact A&M is laying more than four scores with a backup QB may not sound all that appealing, but the opponent is New Mexico, who I’d consider possibly one of the ten worst teams in America despite its 2-0 SU start. My power ratings have this line north of -40 (!) so we are actually getting a discount in College Station. I think Calzada is going to do just fine in this game and I look for the Aggies to win real big. Lay the points. New Mexico is 2-0, but those wins were against Houston Baptist (FCS) and New Mexico State (2nd worst FBS team in my rankings). So it’s about as big a step up in class as possible for the Lobos this week. They didn’t even cover against either of the two patsies, winning the first game by only 10 points and second by only nine. Now this is the first 2-0 start in Albuquerque going back to 2005. But this is a team expected to finish at the bottom of the Mountain West this season. They’ve been fortunate to get five turnovers so far. Calzada did lead the GW drive last week, so he’s got that under his belt. He’s also backed up by a defense that surrendered just 54 total yards to Colorado in the second half and made them go 0 for 6 on third downs. New Mexico won’t score many points Saturday, making covering the spread more attainable for the Aggies. Heading into the SEC opener next week vs. Arkansas, look for Fisher to want to make a statement. This team has won 10 consecutive games since losing at Alabama early last season. They’ve won 27 straight over “Group of 5” teams by an average of almost 27 PPG. They’re 4-0 all-time vs. New Mexico with the three wins in College Station coming by an average of 46 PPG. 8* Texas A&M | |||||||
09-17-21 | Maryland -7.5 v. Illinois | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 13 m | Show |
10* Maryland (9:00 ET): For the time being, Illinois is still going to be getting some “residual respect” based on their opening week upset of Nebraska. The Fighting Illini closed as a 6.5-point home underdog for that game, but pulled a 30-22 upset thanks in large part to a safety & defensive TD. It was a great start to the Brett Bielema era in Champaign, but the Illini haven't won since. First they dropped a home game to UTSA (where they were a 4-point favorite) and then last week they got hammered 42-14 on the road by Virginia. The defense was torched for 556 yards by the Hoos and the number of points allowed by the Illini has gone up every week. Through three weeks, they are allowing 33.7 PPG. That’s bad news when getting set to face a Maryland team that just hung 62 points on the board last week. Granted that was against a FCS opponent in Howard. But Taulia Tagovailoa (yes, Tua’s younger brother) should have little difficulty carving up this Illini secondary. Tagovailoa has already thrown for 600+ yards in two games with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He’s completed 76% of his passes thus far and has the fifth highest passer rating among QBs with at least 60 attempts. If that’s not enough to impress you, perhaps the Terrapins upsetting West Virginia 30-24 in Week 1 should. The offense put up nearly 500 yards in that win. They also have RB Tayon Fleet-Davis, who is averaging 7.4 yards per carry. Illinois will be starting Brandon Peters at QB Friday night. Peters had originally won the job in camp, but suffered an injury in the win over Nebraska. The Illini faithful are going to hang their hat on Peters’ return, but I just don’t see that being enough to stay within the number here. Illinois has won just 2 of the last 15 times they’ve been a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points and gone 5-10 ATS. These schools have met only once before and it ended up being a 63-33 win for Maryland three years ago. I still consider the Illini to be the worst team in the Big 10 and my power rankings say this should be a double digit spread. This won’t be another game like the one vs. Nebraska. Lay the points. 10* Maryland | |||||||
09-17-21 | Phillies v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
9* Run Line NY Mets (7:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Mets +1.5. The Mets were swept by the Phillies back in early August, putting them in this revenge situation. What I like besides the revenge angle is the fact that the Mets had Thursday off and the Phillies didn’t. The Mets certainly needed the day off after being swept again, this time by the Cardinals here at home. It’s been a rough second half of the season in Queens as the team has gone from leading the NL East to below .500. But I see the Metropolitans doing no worse than a one-run loss today. The Phillies were 17-8 winners yesterday over the Cubs. Something worth mentioning about that game is that the Phils trailed at one point by seven runs. They became the first team in the modern era to win a game by 9+ runs after trailing by seven or more. When it comes to playoff contention, they are in far better position than the Mets, only 2.5 games out of the Wild Card and three games back of the division lead. But this club is only 32-40 on the road this year and 8-8 as a road favorite of -125 to -175. So I really like the +1.5 option we are getting here, especially at this price. On their last road trip, Philadelphia lost two of three to both Miami and Milwaukee with one of the two wins coming by a single run. Fading Phillies’ starter Zach Wheeler may seem risky, given he has 18 quality starts under his belt and 12 of those saw him allow 1 or 0 ER. The last two times Wheeler has faced the Mets, he’s had their number; allowing no runs in 16 IP. The last one was a complete game. But while he’s been good recently, Wheeler had a rough August (allowed 4+ ER five times) and his numbers on the road aren’t nearly as good as they are at home. I feel that Mets’ starter Taijuan Walker (1.041 WHIP at home) has pitched better than his record shows. This will be his fifth time facing Philadelphia in 2021 and he has a 3-1 TSR. Considering the Phillies trailed the Cubs by seven y’day, would you really be that surprised to see them lose here? 9* NY Mets +1.5 | |||||||
09-16-21 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -3.5 | Top | 29-30 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:20 ET): Both teams are off deflating Week 1 losses. In the case of Washington, not only did they lose the game 20-16 to the LA Chargers, but they also lost starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to a hip injury that could keep him on the shelf for as many as eight weeks. But I think the offense will be in decent hands here with Taylor Heinicke stepping in as the new starter. While this is the first time in his NFL career that Heinicke is going to be a starter for any length of time, remember what he did in last year’s playoff start against Tampa Bay. He threw for 306 yards! Perhaps an even bigger story than Heinicke is that the Football Team is looking to snap a five-game losing streak to the Giants. I think they get their revenge Thursday. Lay the points. As they were for so much of last season, the Giants’ offense looked rather lifeless in a 27-13 loss to Denver in Week 1. They gained only 314 total yards and had just one touchdown before the final play of the game. Now what’s a little misleading there is that there was a drive earlier in the second half where QB Daniel Jones fumbled in the red zone. But still, it wasn’t a great showing from a Giants’ offense that ranked 31st in the league in scoring a year ago. Also concerning was the Giants’ defense surrendered 420 yards to a Broncos’ offense that isn’t exactly regarded as one of the league’s best. They could have given up more points, but the Broncos also had a red zone turnover. I expect Heinicke to be able to move the ball in his first regular season start in three years. I know that the Giants are on a 16-4 ATS run as road underdogs, but eventually Washington is going to beat them. It was rather stunning that the Giants swept last year’ season series given they finished 6-10 while Washington won the division. Granted, they won the division with a 7-9 SU record, but they were definitely a better team than the G-Men in 2020. The last three Giants wins over the Football team have all been by fewer than three points or in overtime. Washington actually outgained them in both games last season. Heinicke played the entire second half last week, completing 11 of 15 passes and won’t be “coming in cold” this time. The Giants’ defense gave up a league worst 5.9 yards per rush last week. Also, had Antonio Gibson not fumbled inside his own 5-yard line last week, Washington probably would have won! 8* Washington | |||||||
09-13-21 | Twins +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
8* Run Line Minnesota (2:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Twins +1.5. What a terrible spot this is for the Yankees. They wrapped up their series with the Mets last night (and lost) and now head back home for a one-game series with Minnesota before heading back out to Baltimore. This is obviously a make-up game as the teams were rained out on 8.22. New York had taken the first three games of that series, so it’s a huge break for the Twins to play the final game now, less than 14 hours after the Yankees last played a game. They’ll do no worse than a one-run loss here. Things were going much better for the Pinstripes back in late August. Their three wins over the Twins were part of a 13-game streak that had the team well-positioned to earn a Wild Card spot. But now they’ve dropped eight of nine overall and the one win was by one run. It was a one-run loss to the Mets Sunday night, thanks to three Francisco Lindor home runs, and that leaves the Yanks one game out of Wild Card position. As for their future prospects, I’m not too keen as they have an inferior run differential compared to the Blue Jays, Red Sox and A’s. On the mound this afternoon will be Luis Gil, making just his fifth career big league start. Gil issued SEVEN walks his last time out in a 6-3 loss to Toronto. With Minnesota, you have to remember that this was a team pegged to be a playoff contender at the start of the year. That they are -24.6 units at the betting window is a clear reflection of what a disappointment 2021 has been. Yesterday’s 5-3 loss to the Royals leaves them in last place in the AL Central (63-80), but they were just 1 for 8 w/ RISP in that game and should do better in that situation today against Gil. The Twins starter for Monday, John Gant, threw five shutout innings his last time out. That was in Cleveland. The Yankees have scored four runs or less in 8 of their last 11 games and are the lowest scoring contending team in the American League. 8* Run Line Minnesota | |||||||
09-12-21 | Browns +5.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 29-33 | Win | 100 | 8 h 40 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (4:25 ET): This is a rematch from last year’s playoffs. Kansas City won that game 22-17, but it was Cleveland leaving with the cash as 7.5-point underdogs. The Browns aren’t quite as large of a dog this time around, despite the fact they will be facing Patrick Mahomes for a full 60 minutes. If you recall, Mahomes left that playoff game with a concussion, forcing Chad Henne into duty. The Chiefs were lucky to hold on that day, but I don’t think they’ll be as fortunate Sunday as Cleveland looks like a serious contender in 2021 and I give them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. Take the points here. Kansas City won 16 of its 19 games last year, but all anyone remembers is them losing the big one - 31-9 to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV. What you may have forgotten is that the Chiefs were a bad bet down the stretch, failing to cover 9 of their last 11 games. They were extremely fortunate to go 9-0 SU in games decided by seven points or less last season. I think the offensive line is a major question mark entering this season as all five starters are new. Cleveland has one of the better defensive lines in the league and is capable of getting to Mahomes the same way the Bucs did in February. The Browns have not won a season opener since 2004 (0-15-1 SU), so that’s added motivation on top of looking to avenge LY’s playoff loss. Odell Beckham Jr is back healthy, so the offense should be more dynamic. This is not your “older brother’s Browns” any longer as this is one of the few games this year where they will be an underdog. They have the best running game in the league. With the most expensive offense in the league (even with Mayfield still on a team-friendly rookie deal), they are going to put up points. Everyone seems to be assuming the Chiefs are going to roll here, but I think that’s flawed thinking. Look for the Browns to surprise here and prove they are the “real deal.” 8* Cleveland | |||||||
09-12-21 | Vikings -3 v. Bengals | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -106 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): The Vikings are a team that I’m fairly high on for 2021. Most key indicators say they’ll improve upon LY’s disappointing 7-9 SU finish. It was a clear rebuilding year in 2020. The defense, which lost several key contributors due to the salary cap, slipped all the way down to 29th in scoring. That’s very uncharacteristic for a Mike Zimmer stop unit. The Vikes were also unlucky when it came to special teams and third & fourth down relative to success on early downs. Don’t be surprised to see the defense bounce back this year. The offense should be very good again. A Wild Card is certainly not out of the question for this team. I expect them to open the regular season with a big road win at Cincinnati. The Bengals were 4-11-1 SU last season and finished dead last in the AFC North. They were the only team from their division that didn’t make the playoffs. Losing QB Joe Burrow early in the season didn’t help. But it’s not like there’s a ton of talent on hand for Zac Taylor, who seems to be one of the weaker head coaches in the NFL. Burrow is set to return for Week 1 and has a strong group of receivers. But he only took a few snaps in the preseason and it remains to be seen how he looks against “real competition” after suffering a serious injury. There are eight new starters in Cincinnati as well. I would be shocked if the Bengals didn’t finish in last place again this season. This could be Taylor’s last season. Minnesota comes into 2021 on the longest ATS losing streak in the league. They failed to cover their final seven games last year. But Zimmer is 14-8 ATS all-time in the regular season as a road favorite. As many of you know, I’m not a big fan of taking road favorites in the NFL. But this looks like a line we can exploit in Week 1. If I’m right about the Vikings’ improving, then this is a game they should win. Kirk Cousins threw for 4,265 yards and 35 touchdowns LY and has a tremendous group of skill position players around him, including RB Dalvin Cook, who should have no problem cutting through a Bengals defense that gave up a league-worst 5.2 YPC “up the gut” last season. The Bengals have won only one of Burrow’s nine starts. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
09-12-21 | 49ers v. Lions +9 | Top | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 43 h 4 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Lions figure to be one of the more “unpopular” sides in Week 1. Very little is being expected in Dan Campbell’s first season on the job and sure enough the team has the lowest projected win total in the NFC (second lowest overall). But this is a big spread for the opening week of the season, especially considering the Lions are playing at home. I’m well aware that San Francisco should be one of the league’s most improved teams for 2021, but that was built into a line that has since been bet up even higher. The 49ers are just the third team in the last 20 seasons to be a Week 1 road favorite of at least seven points coming off a losing season. The previous two both lost their games outright! Not saying Detroit will get the SU win here, but it is also worth noting that SF has lost outright the last five times it has been a favorite. Kyle Shanahan is just 7-16-2 ATS as a favorite as the HC of the 49ers, including 1-7-1 ATS when laying at least a touchdown. So all things considered, this line appears to be a case of “putting the cart before the horse.” Again, I expect the Niners to be improved and win double digit games. Basically everything - from injuries to turnover margin - went wrong for them in the 2020 season. But that doesn’t mean they’re ready to go out and win by more than one score on the road in Week 1. The Lions have a new QB in Jared Goff. He’s viewed by most as a downgrade from the player he was traded for, Matthew Stafford. But don’t be surprised if Goff, who has started a Super Bowl before, exceeds his relatively low expectations. Campbell’s defense should absolutely be better this year (how can it not be?). I think the underdog is going to play “loose” in the season opener while the Niners may very well be overconfident. Take the points. 8* Detroit | |||||||
09-11-21 | Washington +7 v. Michigan | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:00 ET): I understand that Washington just lost to a FCS school (Montana) and now has to travel cross-country to the Big House to face Michigan. But the line move for this matchup seems pretty severe considering UW was a preseason top 20 team and Michigan has become somewhat of a Big 10 “afterthought” under Jim Harbaugh. Should a 47-14 win against Western Michigan inspire this much confidence in the Wolverines? I don’t think so, especially considering they just lost star WR Ronnie Bell (who doubles as the kick returner) to a season-ending injury. Take the points Saturday night in Ann Arbor. The wide receiver position was very thin for Washington heading into the season opener. But still, that’s no excuse for losing to Montana and getting held to their lowest point total at home in 11 years. With the receiver group badly banged up, QB Dylan Morris didn’t help his team by tossing three interceptions. He was also sacked three times, despite playing behind what was thought to be one of the top offensive lines in the country. Bottom line is that 2nd year HC Jimmy Lake called the 13-7 defeat the most “embarrassing loss in the history of the program.” I’d expect the Huskies to come out strong here. With the receiver group still a question mark, Washington needs to commit to the run Saturday night. Of course, as I mentioned earlier, Michigan also just lost its best WR. So this could very well turn into a low-scoring game dominated by the defenses. That’s all the more reason to take the points in my eyes. Michigan QB Cade McNamara threw only 11 times for 136 yards last week. This line was close to a pick ‘em on the lookahead line. I just don’t see why the Wolverines should now be laying a touchdown. They are just 2-6 SU their L8 games vs. Power 5 teams and 1-11 ATS its L12 games vs. the Pac 12. 8* Washington | |||||||
09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State -4 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 27 m | Show |
10* Iowa State (4:30 ET): Watching how the games unfolded last Saturday afternoon, I figured Iowa would end up being a pretty popular side in the battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy this week at Iowa State. Turns out that I was completely correct. The public sentiment is understandable considering how the Hawkeyes dismantled Indiana 34-6 in Week 1 while ISU struggled to get by FCS Northern Iowa. But the Cyclones, a top ten team in the preseason rankings, should not be cast aside so quickly. They have plenty of reasons to be motivated come Saturday afternoon and I absolutely love them laying a short number. The first reason Iowa State is going to be motivated come 4:30 ET in Ames is that ESPN College Gameday will be on campus for the first ever ranked vs. ranked meeting between these schools in the AP era. Now that also gives Iowa plenty of reason to be motivated here. But it’s the Cyclones looking to avenge five straight losses in this rivalry. The last time they met was 2019 and it was a one-point win for Iowa (18-17) here in Ames. This will be the first time since 2000 that Iowa State is set to go off as the favorite. They are 15-7 ATS vs. Top 25 opponents under HC Matt Campbell. While Iowa’s Week 1 win was impressive, note that they got TWO pick-sixes in that win. They only outgained Indiana by 0.5 yards per play and did not score an offensive TD over the final 40 minutes of gametime. That game was also played in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes are now 16-1 SU the L17 times they have been a favorite of six points or less. But here they are underdogs on the road and they are just 1-7 ATS L8 in that situation. Yes, Kirk Ferentz’s team has not been beaten by more than one score since a 28-17 loss to Wisconsin early in the 2018 season. But Iowa State has QB Brock Purdy, RB Breece Hall and a defense that has allowed just 16 total points in the second half of its L6 games. 10* Iowa State | |||||||
09-11-21 | Buffalo +14 v. Nebraska | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 57 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (3:30 ET): Historically speaking, this is not a great spot for Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are just 4-11 ATS as a home favorite going back to 2017 and they are only 2-7 ATS the last nine times they’ve been a double digit favorite against a FBS opponent. They’ve lost five of the last seven times they’ve been favored, including the opener against Illinois, a game they were favored to win by more than a TD yet trailed by as many as 21. Scott Frost’s team did bounce back with a 52-7 win last week, but that was against FCS Fordham. That didn’t convince me they should be laying DD to a very live dog this week. Meanwhile, Buffalo has traditionally thrived in this situation. They are on a 9-2-1 ATS run as underdogs, which is the second best cover percentage taking points in the FBS going back to 2017. They are 4-0-1 ATS when getting double digits. Typically one of the best MAC teams (won the East Division last year), the Bulls are expected to take a step back in 2021 due to a late coaching change (Lance Leipold took the Kansas job in April) and a bevy of transfers that followed. But everything looked good last week when they completely overwhelmed FCS Wagner 69-7 in the opener. The offense gained 569 yards in the win. Nebraska just can’t be trusted under Frost as they’ve gone just 13-21 straight up during his tenure and never finished a season above .500. The program’s incredible streak of selling out home games has reached 376, but that’s because donors are now buying and distributing tickets. Buffalo is 7-1-1 ATS its last nine games vs Big 10 teams and won’t be intimidated going into Lincoln. There are upcoming road games at Oklahoma and Michigan State that may be on the Nebraska coaching staff’s minds. But they figure to have Buffalo’s full attention Saturday and I’m taking the points. In their L18 games vs. FBS teams, Nebraska has just ONE win by more than seven points. 8* Buffalo | |||||||
09-11-21 | Wyoming v. Northern Illinois +7 | Top | 50-43 | Push | 0 | 22 h 27 m | Show |
10* Northern Illinois (1:30 ET): This could be a bit of a “sleepy” start for Wyoming as kickoff takes place at 12:30 local time in DeKalb. I can’t say that the Cowboys were all that impressive last week as they barely snuck by FCS Montana State, winning by a score of 19-16 as 19-point favorites after scoring a touchdown in the final minute. They led for just over five minutes of actual game time and were only +26 in total yards while gaining the same # of first downs as Montana State (17). Now they hit the road where they’ve lost seven of nine the previous two years. Take the points in this one. Northern Illinois definitely turned in one of the more surprising results of the opening weekend, beating Georgia Tech 22-19 as 19-point underdogs. Now, it would be a mistake to overreact to just one game, especially considering the Huskies were outgained in Atlanta by 128 yards and had 10 fewer first downs. But they also led most of the way and allowed just one touchdown through three quarters. It was a gutsy decision by HC Thomas Hammock that decided the game as he decided to go for two and the win after scoring a TD in the final minute. That should give his players plenty of confidence heading into the home opener. Northern Illinois went 0-6 SU last year, but figures to be much improved in 2021 as QB Rocky Lombardi transferred into the program after starting six games for Michigan State last year. Lombardi threw two touchdown passes in the opener and is joined by 19 returning starters. Wyoming won just two games last year and couldn’t score a TD until the 4Q last week vs. a FCS foe. Now they are laying points on the road? Seems questionable. My power rankings have this line as basically a pick ‘em, so I’ll grab the points with a team hungry for its first home win since the 2019 finale. 10* Northern Illinois | |||||||
09-11-21 | Western Kentucky v. Army -5 | Top | 35-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
8* Army (11:30 AM ET): The Black Knights marched right over Georgia State in Week 1, winning 43-10 as 2.5-point underdogs. A 67-4 run to pass ratio wasn’t a problem considering the Cadets jumped out to a quick 21-0, scoring touchdowns on each of their first three drives. The defense allowed just 177 total yards, most of that coming on Georgia State’s two scoring drives. Now it’s back to West Point for the home opener where they’ll host a Western Kentucky team that could be looking ahead to next week. That’s a problem when facing the triple option. Lay the points in this one. The reason WKU could be looking ahead is because next week they’ll be hosting Indiana. There was no “lookahead” to this game as the Hilltoppers crushed Tennessee Martin last week 59-10. But that’s a FCS team and little can be taken from that game. I know that HC Tyson Helton has been great as an underdog and his team should improve upon LY’s 5-7 mark, but the offense averaged just 19.0 PPG in 2020 and you have to be concerned with the fact the defense just allowed 201 yards rushing on 34 carries last week. Needless to say, the triple option is a lot tougher to stop than the UT Martin ground game. Army has never beaten WKU in three all-time tries. The most recent meeting took place in 2019 and was a 17-8 loss as five-point road favorites in Bowling Green. The upperclassmen still remember that defeat and it’s not like the Black Knights aren’t already motivated to play their home opener on September 11th. A win here and a 4-0 start is a real possibility with home games vs. UConn and Miami OH on deck. I also think the early start time favors the home team in this one. Army is 8-2 ATS its L10 games as a favorite and feels undervalued here. I like that the line has come down a bit. 8* Army | |||||||
09-10-21 | Kansas +26.5 v. Coastal Carolina | Top | 22-49 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 14 m | Show |
8* Kansas (7:30 ET): Yes, the Jayhawks are still reeling from the mess left by the Les Miles’ regime and their 17-14 opening week victory over FCS South Dakota was certainly less than inspiring. The Jackrabbits even outgained them (slightly). But don’t tell that to the fanbase, who stormed the field after a 13-game SU losing skid ended last Friday in Lawrence. It took a late TD pass (with just 1:12 remaining) to get the win, but an outright win this week is not a concern of mine. All we need Lance Leipold’s team to do here is stay within three touchdowns + a field goal. I think they can do that. Take the points Friday night. Now Coastal Carolina is ranked #17 in the country, so this will not be easy for Kansas by any means. The Chanticleers rolled in their opening game (also against a FCS team), winning 52-14 as a 34-point favorite. They rolled up over 600 total yards on The Citadel. But even with this being a nationally televised game in Conway, it has the feel of a “letdown spot” for Coastal. Unlike the last two seasons, they have nothing to prove against Kansas, a P5 team they’ve previously beaten twice on the road. Those two wins in Lawrence were both by 15 points or less and Coastal was also an underdog in both games! It’s a totally different dynamic this time around. Coastal Carolina was Kansas’ only non-conference opponent in 2020. That was obviously a loss, but the previous two years did see the Jayhawks win both non-conf road games on the schedule. Each win - at Central Michigan in ‘18 and at Boston College in ‘19 - was by 24 points! It is crazy to think back and realize that KU was favored over CC last year. After all, they finished the season 0-9 while the Chanticleers had a 10-0 regular season record (lost in the bowl). Now CC goes from the “hunter” to “the hunted” and I wonder how they adjust. They were not favored by more than 17 in any game last season and were actually DOGS in 5 of their 12 games. 8* Kansas | |||||||
09-06-21 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
10* Run Line Toronto (1:05 ET): First off, this is a run line where I am backing the Blue Jays at +1.5. My view of this team has been pretty well-documented at this point. Considering they have outscored their opponents by 128 runs this season (6th best differential in MLB!), it’s very fair to say the team is better than its 73-62 record. They are coming off a three-game sweep of Oakland over the weekend (I had them both Friday and Saturday) but still four games back of the Wild Card and need to pass two teams. One of the teams ahead of the Jays in the WC race is the Yankees. The Pinstripes currently hold the 1st WC spot, so the Jays don’t necessarily have to pass them. But winning this series is pretty imperative when it comes to narrowing the gap between them and the Red Sox. Also, a Seattle team that has totally overachieved in 2021 is playing Houston this week and will be a big dog in every game. So a successful series here would likely allow Toronto to catch, or even pass, the Mariners. The Blue Jays have legit revenge coming into Monday as they were swept by the Yanks the last time they faced them (back in June). I love the idea of getting an additional run and a half with Toronto. This team is rarely a ML dog. It’s happened only ONCE since the start of August! They’ll send Hyun-Jin Ryu to the mound Monday. He has a 2.50 ERA in three previous starts vs. the Yankees this season and this is only the second time all year Ryu is off B2B losses. The Blue Jays scored 29 runs in the last three games, so I look for another big day at the plate here against Jameson Taillon, who has allowed a total of 11 ER his L2 starts. The Jays do no worse than a one-run loss here. 10* Run Line Toronto (+1.5) | |||||||
09-05-21 | Notre Dame v. Florida State +7 | Top | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
8* Florida State (7:30 ET): Notre Dame is coming off another run to the College Football Playoff. As per usual, they ended up being embarrassed, albeit not as bad as usual. The Fighting Irish’s season ended with a 31-14 loss to Alabama on New Year’s Day, their second straight loss after a 10-0 start. Brian Kelly’s team opens this season ranked in the top 10, but my guess is that the Irish aren’t going to be nearly as good in 2021 as they have a very inexperienced offense and most factors are pointing down. Last season was not normal for any team, but COVID-19 really hit Florida State’s ranks hard and the end result was a very disappointing first year under Mike Norvell. The Seminoles finished just 3-6 and had nearly a month with no games due to COVID. Their only wins over FBS opponents came against North Carolina (by three) and Duke (season finale). But with a full offseason to properly prepare, Norvell should have the ‘Noles back to respectability in 2021. I think tonight’s opener is a classic case of an unranked home team being undervalued against a Top 25 opponent. All eyes will be on the QB position in this game. Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan is set to start for ND. He’ll be operating behind an offensive line with four new starters though, so expect some growing pains. Florida State has not yet announced who its starting QB will be, but it could be McKenzie Milton, a former UCF standout who suffered a terrible injury back in 2018. If not, it will be Jordan Travis. Either way, I look for FSU to put some points on the board in this matchup. Offense was Norvell’s “bread and butter” at previous stops. The defense can only get better as well. Look for the underdog to surprise here. Take the points. 8* Florida State | |||||||
09-05-21 | Braves -1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
10* Run Line Atlanta (3:10 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Braves -1.5. Yes, I know that the first three games of this series have all been decided by one run and Colorado has won two of them. Plus, the Rockies are a lot tougher at home (45-23) than they are on the road (18-50). But this Braves team is poised to win the NL East for the fourth year in a row in my eyes. They are the lone team in their division with a positive run differential (+87). But having lost two in a row, their lead is still just two games over the Phillies (who have also lost B2B games). A win Sunday would be huge and I think they prevail by at least two runs. Charlie Morton will get the starting nod today for Atlanta. He’s been very good of late, in particular his last time out when he held the Dodgers to one run and three hits over six innings. Sadly, the Braves didn’t get the win in that one (they lost 3-2), but it was the 9th time in his L10 starts that Morton allowed 3 ER or less. He’s gone at least six innings while allowing two runs or fewer in five of his last six outings. Morton is a veteran so I don’t see him being fazed by the unique elements of Coors Field. He’s pitched here many times before. Colorado made a pitching change for today, because of injury, going with Ryan Feltner instead of Austin Gomber. This will be Feltner’s big league debut, so it’s the home pitcher that will be at a bigger disadvantage today with Coors Field. A Rockies’ bullpen that has an ERA over 5.00 will likely be pressed into duty, which isn’t good for them. I know Atlanta has played five straight one-run games, but today will break the trend as they pick up a much-needed win. 10* Run Line Atlanta (-1.5) | |||||||
09-04-21 | Utah State v. Washington State -16.5 | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 46 m | Show |
8* Washington State (11:00 ET): Utah State had an uncharacteristically poor 2020 season. The Aggies sank to a 1-5 record and fired HC Gary Anderson after an 0-3 start. It wasn't just a bad record though. USU was just plain BAD as all five losses were by 19 points or greater. In the COVID shortened season, oddsmakers struggled to adjust to just how bad the Aggies had become. They also finished 1-5 ATS. Blake Anderson was hired away from Arkansas State to try and right the ship in Logan. But I still think the Aggies are pretty bad. Lay the points in this one. Washington State played only four games in 2020 and finished just 1-3. Running back Max Borghi, who was a preseason nominee for the Doak Walker Award (best RB), played in only one game. The Cougars’ three losses were to Oregon, USC and Utah, obviously three of the Pac 12’s better teams. They’ve got 15 returning starters and should be improved. I’ve got them finishing third in the Pac 12 North behind Washington and Oregon. Both coaches are being coy about their starting quarterbacks for the opener. For Wazzu it will be either incumbent Jayden de Laura or Tennessee transfer Jarrett Guarantano. For Utah State, it will be either Andrew Peasley or Logan Bonner. What we do know is that the home team’s offense will be better. It’s all about the defense hopefully being better, especially against the pass. This one being in Pullman definitely helps Wazzu. Utah State is just 3-8 ATS as an underdog the previous two seasons. 8* Washington State | |||||||
09-04-21 | LSU v. UCLA +2.5 | Top | 27-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
8* UCLA (8:30 ET): The Bruins treated me so well last week that I had to come crawling back to Chip Kelly again. Now LSU is obviously not going to be a pushover like Hawaii was. The Bruins raced out a huge 24-3 lead after the 1Q and never had to look back against the Warriors. RB Zach Charbonnet ran for three touchdowns in the win, which saw Kelly take his foot off the pedal in the second half. But if you recall, LSU’s run defense was quite bad a year ago during a very disappointing 5-5 SU season. The fact that the Bruins so thoroughly dominated Hawaii, despite not getting a great game from QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, I think is a good sign. Crazy as it may sound, I expect DTR to have a much better game against LSU. I think it’s a big advantage that UCLA has played a game while LSU hasn’t. LSU is breaking in new coordinators for both sides of the ball. The Bruins’ offense averaged 35 PPG in 2020 with DTR at the helm. I wouldn’t be at all worried about last week’s 50% completion rate. In last week’s analysis I talked about how UCLA’s four losses last year came by a total of 15 points. They were certainly better than their WL record. Most starters are back. The defense looks improved, which is all that is needed after the team was somehow 0-4 SU LY in games where the offense scored 34 or more points. Kelly’s offense went three-and-out at the 18th lowest rate in the country last season. We all know it was a down year for LSU, but they were lucky to even go 5-5 SU as they won their final two games despite QB Max Johnson completing only 55% of his passes vs. Ole Miss and Florida. The Tigers were 3-1 SU in one-score games as well. Their practice week was disrupted by Hurricane Irma, forcing them to practice in Houston before heading to the West Coast. I’m taking the points. 8* UCLA | |||||||
09-04-21 | Syracuse v. Ohio +1 | Top | 29-9 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
10* Ohio (7:00 ET): The post-Frank Solich era begins in Athens Saturday night as the Bobcats host Syracuse of the ACC. It’ll be the first ACC school to ever visit Peden Stadium. So this is a big opportunity right out of the gate for new HC Tim Albin, who takes over from Solich after serving as his OC the L16 seasons. It was a very abbreviated final season for Solich as OU played only three games. They won twice and suffered a three-point loss at Central Michigan. Again, expect them to be one of the better MAC teams in 2021, despite the abrupt coaching change. Syracuse is not one of the better ACC teams, obviously. They were 1-10 SU a year ago, the lone win coming against Georgia Tech. Eight of their losses were by double digits. So it immediately caught my eye to see a team like this favored on the road, even if it’s ever so slightly. In my view, oddsmakers are overrating the coaching change at Ohio. I’d have them favored on a neutral field over Syracuse. So getting them at home, where they will be more of an advantage compared to last year, makes the Bobcats a must play. Ohio has been pretty strong at home the last few seasons. In Solich’s first ever home game, they beat Pitt, the program’s last win over an ACC opponent (2005). What a story if Albin replicates the achievement. Both teams plan to play multiple QBs Saturday night, but I like Ohio’s options better. Syracuse had terrible QB play a season ago and it’s the same arms that they are relying on this season. The Orange defense allowed 30+ points eight times in 2020 as they struggled to learn a new alignment. I just don’t think there’s much reason to expect Syracuse to be that improved for Dino Babers. 10* Ohio | |||||||
09-04-21 | Fresno State +20.5 v. Oregon | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 20 h 29 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (2:00 ET): I think this is going to be a really challenging spot for #11 Oregon. This is the Ducks’ first game and they’ve got #4 Ohio State on deck. Fresno State already has a game under its belt, that being a 45-0 shutout of sorry UConn last week. They only have a game with FCS Cal Poly to “worry about” next week. The Bulldogs certainly took no mercy on their hapless opponent last week, outgaining them 538-107 in a game that was 31-0 by halftime. Definitely take the points in this one. Since current HC Kaylen DeBoer came to the program in 2017 (as the offensive coordinator), FSU has been an excellent bet, going 24-9-2 ATS overall. That record includes a 12-4 ATS mark as an underdog. Certainly facing a “big name” Pac 12 school will have the Bulldogs motivated. In particular QB Jake Haener, who transferred out of Washington to be here. Haener threw for 331 yards and three touchdowns in the opener while completing 20 of 26 attempts. He didn’t even finish the third quarter. RB Ronnie Rivers now has the most rushing TDs in the history of the program with 45. Mario Cristobal is only 5-11-1 ATS all-time as a favorite of two touchdowns or greater. That includes a 3-8-1 ATS mark with Oregon. This is an early start time at Autzen, which could in turn lead to a bit of a “sleepy start” for the home team. I think it’s fair to say that the atmosphere in Eugene is a lot different at 11 AM local time as opposed to in primetime. No matter the score in the 4Q, I don’t think the Ducks are going to want to “expose the whole playbook” with Ohio State on deck. A classic lookahead spot for the favorite. 8* Fresno State | |||||||
09-03-21 | Duke v. Charlotte +6.5 | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:00 ET): These teams met last season and Duke delivered a 53-19 beatdown. But that was in Durham and in no way indicative of how the Blue Devils’ season went. David Cutcliffe’s team finished 2020 at 2-9 SU. Their only win besides the Halloween night thumping of Charlotte came three weeks earlier at Syracuse. They ended the season on 0-4 SU/ATS run where they gave up an average of 54 points per game (not a misprint!) and lost every time by no fewer than three touchdowns. Cutcliffe, who has given up playcalling duties, really has his work cut out with this Duke team entering 2021. Charlotte also won just two games last season. But they only played six times. Following the loss to Duke, the 49ers would get only one more game in - a 37-19 loss to Western Kentucky. So neither of these two teams has won since last Halloween. This will be the first time in school history that Charlotte has ever hosted a team from a Power 5 conference. So it’s a big deal. Last year’s matchup got out of hand quickly (Charlotte trailed 24-0 early in the 2Q), but again that was an outlier performance by Duke. An interesting note is that Charlotte actually had more first downs than Duke, 22-16! This is an experienced 49ers team that Duke will be facing this year. It starts at the QB position with redshirt senior Chris Reynolds, who has started 24 of the team’s last 25 games and thrown for over 5,000 yards in his career. The Duke secondary was like a sieve last season and they lost five of the top tacklers. Mark my words that the Blue Devils are going to struggle to keep Charlotte from scoring in this game and that’s a problem when you’re laying points on the road. Keep an eye on 49ers WR Victor Tucker, who might be the best player on the field Friday night. Charlotte is 3-0 SU/ATS the L3 times it’s been a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. 8* Charlotte | |||||||
09-01-21 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
8* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Blue Jays -1.5. From Toronto’s perspective, last night’s 4-2 loss to the Orioles is completely unacceptable. They are in the midst of a five-team race for the Wild Card and need to make up 4.5 games while passing at least three teams. I continue to believe the Jays are so much better than their record. They have the 7th best run differential in the sport, a far more impressive number than the teams they are competing against for the Wild Card. They simply cannot afford a second straight loss to the team with the worst record in all of baseball. Baltimore is 3-4 over its last seven games. That’s after losing 19 in a row where all but one of the defeats came by multiple runs. We’ve got a real mismatch with the two starting pitchers today. Matt Harvey has lost four straight starts for the Orioles and has a 6.18 ERA for the year. Toronto’s Steven Matz has a 1.06 ERA and 0.882 WHIP his L3 starts, sadly two of which Toronto has lost. But Matz shouldn’t have any issues today facing a lineup that hits just .223 at home. Like his team, he’s certainly due for a big win on Wednesday. The Blue Jays have the run differential of a 78-win team. They should be leading the Wild Card race. Instead, they are only 69-62 with the ignominious distinction of being baseball’s biggest underachiever (in terms of actual vs. expected wins). But they still have eight games left vs. the Orioles (including tonight), which should give them an opportunity to make up ground in the WC hunt. They average 1.6 rpg more than Baltimore while also allowing 1.1 rpg less. Matz is due for a win and the Blue Jays should easily win this game. 8* Run Line Toronto (-1.5) | |||||||
08-30-21 | Phillies v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
8* Run Line Washington (7:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Nationals +1.5. Back at the start of the month, the Phillies came here to the Nation’s Capital and took all four games from the Nats. At that time, the Phillies were the hottest team in all of baseball. They’d end up winning eight in a row and were briefly in first place in the NL East. But this team is not that good and has long since ceded control of the division to Atlanta. It was a successful weekend in Philly (took three of four from the lousy D’backs), but they are 0-2 this season as a road favorite of -175 or higher (0-4 L3 seasons). I look for the home team to do no worse than a one-run loss in this one. In that last series between Philadelphia & Washington, two of the four games were decided by one run. Another of the games saw the Nationals give up five runs in the ninth and lose by two. So it was a competitive series. I know this is a bit of a “lost season” for the Nats, but there is reason for optimism as three players acquired in the Max Scherzer trade will make their big league debuts today. Starter Josiah Gray also came over in that trade and he’s had a solid August which includes three straight quality starts. Zach Wheeler has struggled recently for the Phillies, posting a 6.53 ERA in his L3 starts. He’s lost all three as a favorite. His last road start came against lowly Arizona and he allowed six runs. Wheeler has given up four runs or more in six of his previous nine outings. The Nationals should certainly be familiar with him by this point as this will be their sixth time facing him in 2021. Wheeler’s ERA in the previous five starts is 4.11 and he’s just 7-14 all-time vs. Washington (4.53 ERA). The Phillies are only 27-36 on the road this year, so being able to get an extra 1.5 runs and fade them, at this price, is a good deal. 8* Run Line Washington | |||||||
08-29-21 | Patriots v. Giants +3.5 | Top | 22-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (6:00 ET): We’ve yet to see the Giants’ starters in the preseason, but that will change Sunday against the Patriots. HC Joe Judge has said the first team will play a “minimum” of one half today. That includes QB Daniel Jones. The Giants have yet to win in this preseason, they’ve lost 12-7 to the Jets and 17-13 to the Browns. No team wants to go winless, even if it is “only” preseason. I’ll take the points. The big story in New England is the QB battle between rookie Mac Jones and incumbent Cam Newton. Newton was the Week 1 starter last year, but never seemed comfortable with his new team. It doesn’t help that Newton missed multiple days of practice this week, not for a violation of team rules, but over what has been called a COVID-19 protocol “misunderstanding.” Jones has yet to throw a TD pass. I know Newton and Jones will be “pushing” one another here and that the Patriots won 35-0 last week. But that was a fortuitous situation where Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts was a late scratch. The fact that the Giants are playing starters here tells me they are making this their “dress rehearsal” and will be a bit more motivated than usual. The Giants’ defense has been good in the first two games. They’ve beaten the Patriots “when it matters most” (two Super Bowls) and can beat them when it matters least. Take the points. 10* NY Giants | |||||||
08-28-21 | Hawaii v. UCLA -17.5 | Top | 10-44 | Win | 100 | 96 h 49 m | Show |
10* UCLA (3:30 ET): It is clearly a make or break year for Chip Kelly at UCLA. He’s gone 10-21 SU in his first three years here (3-9, 4-8 and 3-4). Typically it’s year three when a coach truly puts his imprint on a program. But 2020 clearly was a season like none other before it. It was also a season in which the Bruins’ four losses came by a total of 15 points. Somehow they were 0-4 SU in games where they scored 35 or more points. That should never happen. But the good news is that - with most of last year’s starters returning and factors pointing up - this should be the season Kelly’s team is a contender in the Pac 12 South. Hawaii looks to be pretty bad in 2021. They were 5-4 SU in 2020, but outscored. That’s the opposite of UCLA, who had a positive point differential last season despite the losing overall record. The Warriors’ season ended with a New Mexico Bowl victory over Houston. But that was one of only four times they had to leave the Island last year. Two of the four were losses by 24 points. Not only does QB Chevan Cordeiro lose three of his top receivers from last year, but HC Todd Graham had to replace two offensive coaches including the coordinator. UCLA has 10 starters back on defense including the top three tacklers. So look for that unit to be improved this season. The offense did improve last year, scoring 34+ points in five of seven games and committing three-and-outs at the 18th lowest rate in the country. Like the defense, most of LY’s starters are back. This is a very early start time for the Hawaii players and the last time the Warriors visited the Rose Bowl, the end result was a 33-point defeat. The Hawaii run defense was a major problem LY, giving up 212 YPG. 10* UCLA | |||||||
08-27-21 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10* Run Line Philadelphia (7:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play only where I’m taking the Phillies -1.5. I was going to play the Phillies yesterday, but a late pitching change - Matt Moore starting in place of Zach Eflin - scratched that. Moore struggled mightily, giving up four runs on seven hits in his four innings of work. It was 8-2 in favor of the D’backs going into the bottom of the ninth when Philly made a game of it by scoring five times. But they were still a run short and are now an embarrassing 0-4 this season against Arizona, who just won B2B road games for the first time since April. The Phillies have a much more suitable starter set for tonight. That would be Aaron Nola, whose 11-14 YTD TSR is just not indicative of the way he’s pitched in 2021. Last time out, Nola took a perfect game into the seventh inning but ended up getting a no-decision as the Phillies lost to the Padres 4-3 in extra innings. Nola went 8 ⅔ and struck out 11 batters. It was the 11th time this season that Nola allowed 2 ER or less. I simply cannot see the Phillies losing again to the D’backs and if anyone on this staff deserves a win, it’s Nola. Arizona might be 4-0 vs. the Phillies this year, but they are still 41 games below .500. As I said earlier, this is the first time they’ve been off B2B road wins since April. They are 17-49 on the road, including 4-23 as an underdog of +175 to +250. So it’s not a question IF they lose, it’s if they lose by multiple runs. I think they will. For the year, they’ve been outscored by an average of nearly two full runs per game away from home. Taylor Widener, despite some success, has seen his velocity decrease over his last couple starts. I think the Phils will get to him on Friday. They may be banged up, but the home team should still exact revenge. 10* Run Line Philadelphia | |||||||
08-27-21 | Colts v. Lions +2 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
10* Detroit (7:00 ET): The Lions are 0-2 in the preseason with losses to Pittsburgh (26-20) and Buffalo (16-15). Head coach Dan Campbell is not expected to have a strong first year on the job as the Lions’ projected regular season win total of 4.5 is the second lowest in the league (only Houston is lower). So I expect him to “play to win” Friday in an effort to create SOME kind of spark for when the games start to matter. Almost all of the Lions scoring during the preseason has come in the fourth quarter, so Campbell has shown he’s not one to “roll over.: I look for a better start tonight at home and will take the points. Indianapolis has won both of its preseason games. But those two wins have been by a total of five points and both required fourth quarter comebacks. They were down 15-3 to the Panthers in the opener, but a late TD + 2pt conversion followed by a FG in the closing seconds gave them a 21-18 win. Last week, the Colts failed to get in the end zone but won 12-10 in Minnesota after another late FG in the fourth quarter. Carson Wentz (injured) is obviously not playing, which leaves the QB duties to Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger, two former college standouts that aren’t expected to do much in the pros. The Colts haven’t run the ball in either game (3.0 YPC). David Blough and Tim Boyle are the QBs for Detroit. I realize that’s a very unassuming sounding duo, but they’ve done well so far when facing backups and that’s likely what they’ll see here. The Lions defense was under siege against a motivated group of Pittsburgh QBs last week. It won’t be like that again in the final preseason game. I believe Campbell is really going to want to win for the first time as Lions head coach. The home dog is a strong value. 10* Detroit | |||||||
08-23-21 | Jaguars v. Saints -4 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 43 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:00 ET): The Urban Meyer era didn’t exactly get off to a great start for Jacksonville as they lost the first preseason game 23-13 at home to Cleveland. They’d been bet from underdogs to the role of favorite, so a lot of bettors (myself included) took a bath on that one. We did see the pro debut of #1 overall DC Trevor Lawrence and things didn’t go all that well for the heavily touted rookie. He was sacked twice and fumbled. It seems as if we’re likely to see more of backup Gardner Minshew III tonight (Lawrence will also play), but I don’t like the Jaguars chances here. The Saints have some work to do after a sloppy first preseason game. They turned it over six times in a 17-14 loss at Baltimore. The Ravens have an incredible preseason record under John Harbaugh, but you have to figure the Saints would have beaten them if not for all those TO’s. Sean Payton is still trying to figure out who will be the heir apparent to Drew Brees (retired), Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill. It looks like Winston will get the start tonight, but even with backups I’m confident Hill can get the job done. The Saints outgained the Ravens last week 366-309. Behind Winston and Hill is Ian Book and the rookie out of Notre Dame did really well in “mop up” duty the first game. He completed 9 of 16 passes for 196 yards. Jacksonville’s defense is still a work in progress as is the whole team, coming off a 1-15 campaign. At home on Monday night, look for the Saints to get the job done. 10* New Orleans | |||||||
08-22-21 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -126 | 4 h 22 m | Show |
10* Run Line Toronto (1:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Blue Jays -1.5. I’ve been through this before, but in terms of wins & losses vs. run differential, no team has underperformed more this season than Toronto. They’ve outscored the opposition by 118 runs over the course of 2021. That’s the sixth best differential in all of baseball. But they are only 64-57 and 4.5 games out of the Wild Card. They did win Saturday, 3-0, and are due to win some more. I’m quite comfortable thinking they’ll win here by at least two runs. For a moment there, Detroit did climb into second place in the AL Central. But this isn’t a good team. They’ve now lost five of the last six games and the only time they displayed any real offense (Thursday), they blew an 8-run lead. They did win Friday, 4-1, but that was a game that went 10 innings. They struck out 15 times in that win, but were fortunate to turn four double plays - three of them inning-enders. Sunday’s starter Drew Hutchinson will be making just his second start of 2021. The first did not go well as he lasted only 1 ⅔ innings and gave up six runs. That was his 1st big league start in three years. Steven Matz will go for Toronto today. He allowed only one unearned run last Sunday when I took him against Seattle, a game that the Blue Jays won 8-3. Of the five runs that Matz has allowed over his L3 starts, three have been unearned. He’s allowed 2 ER or less in five of his previous six starts. There has to be a real sense of urgency for the home team, given the deficit they face in the Wild Card race. The Tigers are a team they should easily beat. The Blue Jays have dominated in day games this season (30-15) while the Tigers are just 1-6 coming off a shutout loss (8-21 L3 seasons). 10* Run Line Toronto (-1.5) | |||||||
08-21-21 | Raiders -6.5 v. Rams | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
8* Las Vegas (10:00 ET): The Rams didn’t play their starters last week nor will we see them here. HC Sean McVay has announced they will be given the entire preseason off. That’s a good way to keep your team healthy, but it doesn’t make for a profitable August. The Rams lack depth due to trading away several draft picks the last few years. They are up against it Saturday night and I’m going to lay the points. Jon Gruden is 8-1 ATS in the preseason since returning to the Raiders. Unlike McVay, he takes these preseason games rather seriously. Last week, the Silver and Black ran over Seattle in a 20-7 win and that was without QB Derek Carr. The Raiders outgained the Seahawks by nearly a 2:1 margin and had a 26-9 edge in first downs. These teams have been holding joint practice this week and the reports are the Raiders have looked good. The Rams lost 13-6 to the Chargers last week. The Raiders defense played really well last week and should dominate the Rams’ offensive backups. Marcus Mariota figures to be on the field for a little bit, so the Raiders offense should get off to a good start. 8* Las Vegas | |||||||
08-20-21 | Bengals +5.5 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 13-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (8:00 ET): Preseason lines shouldn’t be this high and when it’s a non-conference dog of 5.5 or more, taking the points has cashed better 60 percent of the time since 2004. So I’m going with the Bengals (plus the points) Friday night. They are coming off a 19-14 win over Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the preseason. Beating the defending Super Bowl Champs, even in a relatively meaningless matchup, was a nice way for Zac Taylor’s team to start the season. QB Joe Burrow, still recovering from ACL surgery, isn’t going to play here. But I’m confident that the Bengals can still win, or at the very least cover the spread. Washington lost its first preseason game, 22-13 to New England. They gave up a long TD at the end of the game. That was after their own long 4Q scoring drive. We are likely to see starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for a series or two Friday night, but it won’t be long until he gives way to Taylor Heinicke and Steven Montez. Those two averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt in the first game. Kyle Allen is also expected to make his season debut tonight. But I don’t expect much from him. The Football Team’s defense also looked pretty bad in the second half last week. I think that is going to be the key here as - at the very worst - the proverbial “back door” will be open late for the Bengals to come in and steal the cover. The Bengals’ defense forced three turnovers last week and allowed only 159 total yards. The offense did turn it over four times, which I assume will be cleaned up this week. QB’s Kyle Shurmer and Brandon Allen combined to go 19 of 29 against the Bucs. I like the Bengals’ defensive line to make a few plays. Take the points. 10* Cincinnati | |||||||
08-19-21 | Patriots v. Eagles +1.5 | Top | 35-0 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): The Eagles looked good for a half in Week 1 of the preseason. They took a 16-7 lead into the break after four scoring drives of six or more plays. The biggest play came when Joe Flacco (remember him?) threw a 79-yard TD pass to Quez Watkins late in the first quarter. But despite more than 200 yards of offense in the 1H, it was not meant to be. The Eagles’ defense was torched in the second half, giving up three long scoring drives that totaled 17 points. As a result, they lost to the Steelers 24-16. I think that loss will have the new coaching staff even hungrier for Week 2. I’m taking the points. New England was a 22-13 winner in its first preseason game. But that score was a little misleading as they got a late 91-yard TD run with just over a minute to go. Of course, that was after giving up a long TD drive right before. The big story in Patriots’ camp is at QB. You’ve got Cam Newton competing with rookie Mac Jones for the starting job. Both saw action last week. Newton was just 4 of 7 for 49 yards. Jones completed 13 of 19 passes, but for only 87 yards. So neither was taking any chances. Unless something shocking happens in the next two weeks, Jalen Hurts is going to be the Eagles’ starting QB come Week 1 of the regular season. He was 3 of 7 in the opener. Hurts has reportedly looked good during the joint practices this week. There will be a sense of familiarity by kickoff Thursday night. But in the end, this comes down to a first year coaching staff not wanting to lose a second straight week at home. Expect Eagles HC Nick Sirianni to play to win. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
08-17-21 | Blue Jays -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 6-12 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Run Line Toronto (7:05 ET): First off, please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Blue Jays -1.5. Toronto is a team that the marketplace seems to love and so do I. Despite being only 63-54 (4th place in the AL East), the Jays have outscored their opposition by 127 runs this season. That’s the fifth best differential in all of baseball! Their weekend in Seattle was not as good as I’d expected (dropped two of three), but a visit to the Nation’s capital should go well as they find the host Nationals on a seven-game losing streak. You can look for the visitors to win this game by at least two runs. Over the past week, Washington has lost four one-run games and is now in last place in the NL East. I expected better from the 2019 World Series Champs this season, but the current starting rotation doesn’t even come close to resembling what the team had planned going into Opening Day. Only one of five starters remain from the planned rotation, that being Patrick Corbin, is still around. Erick Fedde will get the nod here and he hasn’t won a decision since June 12th. Over his L7 starts, Fedde has a 6.25 ERA and 1.674 WHIP. He’s made it through six innings only two times during that stretch. Tonight, Fedde will be opposed by Alek Manoah, who is a perfect 3-0 his L3 starts with a 1.93 ERA and 0.911 WHIP. Manoah had a career-high 11 strikeouts his last time out and that was on the road. Of course, it also helps that Toronto has scored 10+ runs in four of Manoah’s last seven starts. They probably won’t need to do that here though as the righty faces a NL lineup (no DH) and a weak one at that. The Jays’ WL record “should” be so much better than it is and I’m expecting a big finish to the season from them. Based on their run differential, you’d “expect” them to have a record of 72-45! 8* Run Line Toronto (-1.5) | |||||||
08-14-21 | Browns v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (7:00 ET): This Week 1 preseason matchup attracted plenty of early “action” on the Jaguars once the Browns announced that the majority of their starters won’t even bother to suit up. Coach Kevin Stefanski has made it clear that Baker Mayfield is out for Saturday. That would normally make veteran Case Keenum in line to be the starter, but according to Browns’ beat reporters, Keenum may not see a ton of action either. So that means the Browns would be down to Kyle Lauletta, a former fourth round pick of the Giants, to take most of the reps at QB. Yeah, no thanks. Lay the points here. The Jaguars’ QB situation is obviously more interesting as they took Trevor Lawrence with the first overall draft choice. Shockingly, new HC Urban Meyer has declared it to be an “open” QB competition between Lawrence and incumbent Gardner Minshew. Both are going to see playing time here, which is a good reason to be on the Jags. Either is a better option than whomever is taking snaps for Cleveland under center. Throw in the fact that this will be Meyer’s first home game as Jacksonville head coach and you’ve got to believe the Jags will be the more motivated team come Saturday. They are off a dreadful 1-15 SU season that ended with 15 consecutive losses. Winning this game is far more important to them than to a Browns team that went 11-5 SU LY and made the playoffs. Expectations are the highest they’ve been for the Browns in some time heading into 2021. But like most playoff teams from the previous year, the preseason doesn’t matter much. Jaguars players will be looking to make an impression on the new coaching staff. Stefanski already knows what he has and is sitting basically everyone. 10* Jacksonville | |||||||
08-13-21 | Bills v. Lions | Top | 16-15 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
8* Detroit (7:00 ET): This is a 1st year head coach (Dan Campbell) making his home debut. That’s a situation I typically bet on during the preseason and the Lions will be no exception here. Campbell takes over an outfit that was pretty bad in 2020. The Lions finished 5-11 and had the worst point differential in the NFC. The biggest offseason news (besides the hiring of Campbell) was the trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the Rams in exchange for Jared Goff. Goff will start this game and behind him there’s a battle for #2 on the QB depth chart between Tim Boyle and David Blough. Buffalo went 13-3 last season and made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game. They have a lot less question marks entering 2021 than do the Lions. Obviously, if this were a regular season contest, I’d handicap this matchup a lot differently. But with QB Josh Allen (just got a big new contract) and several other Bills’ offensive starters set to sit this one out, it’s a whole different ball game in the preseason. Mitchell Trubisky is likely who Buffalo will be counting on for most of the snaps, at least early on, and he’s not to be trusted. Inheriting a shaky operation, Campbell will want to win this first game in front of fans. Buffalo should be accommodating. The regular season is the Bills’ focus right now while the Lions aren’t likely to win very many games when they start counting. So a win tonight would go a long way for their confidence early on. Goff should play about a quarter with the rest of the offensive starters, which is fine. Clearly, I think Campbell’s motivation to win here is the key factor. Go with the home team. 8* Detroit | |||||||
08-07-21 | Nationals v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* Run Line Atlanta (7:20 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Braves -1.5. The Braves are a team that I am “buying” right now. Look at their YTD run differential compared to the rest of the National League East. They have scored 65 more runs than they’ve allowed this season. Every other team in the division has been outscored over the course of 2021. Last night’s 8-4 win was the team’s fourth in a row. It was also the Nationals’ fifth straight loss. Look for those streaks to continue Saturday with the Braves winning this one by at least a two-run margin. All the talk in the NL East right now is about how the Phillies have wrested first place from the Mets. But the Braves are just a game out of first entering Saturday and I expect them to win the division for a fourth consecutive season. Run differential is a great predictor of future outcomes. Charlie Morton, who will start tonight’s game, is off his first loss since June 11th. However, he has allowed 3 ER or less in five consecutive outings. His only previous start vs. Washington this season resulted in a 5-3 win (back on May 31st). The Nats were sellers at the trade deadline and I’m not expecting them to do very well the rest of the season. Trea Turner and Max Scherzer were sent to Los Angeles, leaving gaping holes on the roster. Josiah Gray was one of the players acquired in that trade with the Dodgers. He makes his second start for the Nats tonight. His first was a 7-5 loss to Philadelphia. Nationals’ pitching has given up a total of 36 runs during the 5-game losing streak. That’s a lot and here they are facing a lineup that averages 5.3 rpg at home. 10* Run Line Atlanta | |||||||
08-07-21 | Mariners v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 34 m | Show |
8* Run Line NY Yankees (1:05 ET): The Yankees appear poised to make a run. After coming from behind to defeat the Mariners 3-2 yesterday, they are a season-high 11 games over .500 and only 1.5 games back of the Wild Card. They've won their last four games and seven of the last eight. As for Seattle, I’m quite amused by the fact that four of their last five losses have been by one run. They are a team that has overachieved all season long, in part due to an unsustainable record in one-run games (now 23-12). But please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Yanks -1.5. If you're a regular client of mine, then you know my feelings on Seattle. They are currently 58-53 despite a run differential of -52. That run differential gives them a win expectancy of 50. The eight-game gap between actual and expected wins is easily the largest in all of MLB. They've not only thrived in one-run games, but also extra innings (9-3). So, in my view, it was “just desserts” for them to lose the way they did Friday. The bottom line with the Mariners is they are NOT as good as their record and will fall out of contention for the WIld Card. Something else to consider is they have the lowest team batting average (.222) in all of MLB. The Mariners might be 14-6 with Chris Flexen on the mound this year, but today’s starter has struggled on the road. He has a 5.44 ERA and 1.567 WHIP away from home. Yet, mirroring his team’s overachieving nature, Flexen has a 6-2 TSR on the road. The Yankees go with Andrew Heaney this afternoon, hoping he turns in a better performance than what we saw in his team debut. The former Angel allowed four home runs in his last start. But considering Seattle’s poor offensive numbers, I think Heaney will round back into better form Saturday. Seattle is 17-37 L54 road games vs. a LH starter. 8* Run Line NY Yankees (-1.5) | |||||||
08-05-21 | Phillies v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
8* Run Line Washington (4:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Nationals +1.5. This series has obviously not gone well for the Nats as they’ve dropped the first three games. But losing four in a row at home is “hard to do” and the Phillies aren’t a team I have any real affinity for. The home team did jump out to an early 3-0 lead last night (on three solo homers), but couldn’t hold as Nats starter Paolo Espino struggled mightily. However, the Phillies are still eight games below .500 on the road this year and I wouldn’t trust them to win this one by more than a single run. Aaron Nola is someone who seems to command the oddsmakers’ respect. I took him on July 25th against Atlanta, a game he nearly went the distance and allowed just one run. But the team has a losing record with Nola on the mound this year (10-11) after losing his last start 3-2 at last place Pittsburgh. It is worth noting that before the time I took him, the right-hander had given up four or more runs in four of six starts. Nola has a losing career record vs. Washington, though he somehow has not faced them this season despite the teams meeting 15 times. Joe Ross toes the rubber for the home team as they look to avoid the sweep. Ross has a 2.31 ERA in eight previous appearances vs. Philly. The most recent saw him toss five shutout innings of a three-hit ball - a game the Nationals ended up losing by one run. Back in June vs. the Phillies, all four runs that Ross allowed were unearned. So he’s got a good track record against them and as long as there are no mistakes in the field, he should keep them to a low number. Washington is a .500 team at home this year. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5) | |||||||
08-03-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
8* Run Line Toronto (7:07 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Blue Jays -1.5. Truthfully, playing Toronto this way on Monday (which I made the mistake of doing) never looked good. They never even led, but the game did go to the 10th inning tied 2-2. That is when Jose Ramirez’s three-run HR won it for Cleveland. The Blue Jays continue to be one of the more confounding teams in all of MLB as they are just five games above .500 (54-49) despite having a run differential (+104) that is sixth best in all of MLB. I still have faith that this team can make a run at the Wild Card. Look for them to win by multiple runs on Tuesday. Last night marked the home team’s first loss in Toronto this season. Of course, they just returned here for the first time in nearly two years. The weekend saw them sweep the Royals and they certainly seemed to have some “momentum” (hate that word) coming into this series. Unfortunately, they really couldn’t get the bats going on Monday. They probably will NOT be able to maintain the same scoring average we saw in Dunedin and Buffalo (5.8 rpg), but they did average 5.0 rpg in the three-game sweep of the Royals. I expect a lot more production at the plate tonight. Hyun-Jin Ryu should take care of the Indians’ hitters. He has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts after tossing six shutout innings at Fenway Park last Thursday. He has a 1.56 ERA and 0.981 WHIP over those L3 starts. Cleveland, not a good offensive team, is bottom five in both batting average and OBP. Manager Terry Francona has taken a leave of absence for the rest of the season, which isn’t good. Neither is the club’s -27 run differential. Zach Plesac (4.59 ERA on the road) starts today for an Indians team that is 0-5 off its last five victories and 1-10 after scoring 5+ runs the previous game. I view Toronto as a much more serious threat than Cleveland in the Wild Card hunt. 8* Run Line Toronto (-1.5) | |||||||
08-02-21 | Indians v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -143 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
8* Run Line Toronto (3:07 ET): It speaks volumes that the Jays are such big favorites on the money line for this afternoon game. But please note that I am taking them on the run line, -1.5. The team’s return to Toronto following an almost two-year absence (COVID-19) went perfectly as they swept the Royals over the weekend. They gave up only five runs in the three games. I’ve discussed it before, but the Blue Jays’ record should be a lot better. I say that based on the fact they have MLB’s sixth best run differential (+107). They’ve now won five in a row and I think they’ll continue to roll on Monday. Cleveland, meanwhile, was a seller at the trade deadline despite being in second place in the AL Central and within striking distance of the Wild Card. But a -30 run differential paints a more accurate picture of this ballclub, which now will be without skipper Terry Francona (leave of absence) for the remainder of the season. The soon to be “Guardians” dropped two of three over the weekend in what was a very competitive series with the White Sox. I won with them on Saturday. But again, this line should speak volumes about where these respective clubs are “at” right now. Robbie Ray toes the rubber for the home team in this series opener. He’s made 20 starts this year and has a 3.04 ERA/1.073 WHIP. Six of his last seven starts have been quality outings, meaning he’s gone at least six innings while allowing three runs or less. He has a 2.27 ERA and 0.916 WHIP during that time. For Cleveland, Eli Morgan will start opposite Ray and he’s going to have to deal with an offense that leads all of baseball in scoring at home. Now that’s because all but three games were in Dunedin/Buffalo, but it’s worth noting the Blue Jays averaged 5.0 rpg over the weekend. Morgan has a 7.47 ERA in seven starts. Toronto is 25-12 in day games this season. 8* Run Line Toronto (-1.5) | |||||||
07-31-21 | Indians +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 12-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
10* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking Cleveland +1.5. It certainly feels as if the Indians’ season is on the brink here as the franchise recently announced a name change (Guardians), manager Terry Francona has taken a leave of absence and the team fell victim to a late rally last night against the White Sox. It was a game they never trailed by more than a run until the 8th when a HBP made the final score 6-4. The White Sox haven’t been all that good since the All-Star Break, losing 7 of their last 11. I don’t see the Indians doing any worse than a one-run loss today. The White Sox also got a very fortunate Yoan Moncada HR in the second inning off Cleveland starter Mejia. The ball only went over the fence after two Indians’ outfielders collided on what should have been a routine fly out. Cleveland has been very competitive with the AL Central leaders this season, going 6-6 against them in H2H play. The six runs scored by Chicago last night were the most in any of their L9 games. The last time they faced Triston McKenzie, the Indians starter for Saturday, they struck out 10 times in 5 ⅓ innings. McKenzie is also coming off a solid start where he allowed just two runs in six innings. The team won that game 3-2 vs. Tampa Bay. Dallas Keuchel will get the baseball tonight for the home team. He has a 5.73 ERA in two previous starts vs. Cleveland this season. He also allowed three home runs in his most recent start, which was a 4-3 loss to Kansas City. Given the White Sox recent offensive woes, I just don’t see them being able to win this game by multiple runs. 10* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5) | |||||||
07-22-21 | Rays v. Indians +1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
8* Run Line Cleveland (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line selection where I am taking the Indians +1.5. They have revenge for a prior three-game sweep, which was in Tampa Bay two weeks ago. Since being swept in Tropicana Field, things have gotten better with the Tribe winning six of nine including a sweep of the Royals in their lone home series. They also beat the Astros yesterday 5-4. Two of the Indians’ last three losses have been by one run. I really like the RL in this series opener. The Rays, who have also won six of their last nine games, can usually count on solid starting pitching. But I don’t believe that will be the case here tonight as they send Luis Patino to the bump. Patino will be making just his fifth start of 2021 here and second since May. He was recalled from Triple-A Durham despite giving up seven runs in his last start here in the big leagues. That was 7/2 vs. Toronto, a game the Rays lost 11-1. It should be noted they were also close to losing yesterday (at home vs. Baltimore) before a two-run rally in the bottom of the ninth. They were down to their last out. So you’ve got a situation where both teams are coming off one-run victories (same exact score too!). Tampa Bay has been in 27 one-run games this year while Cleveland has been in 28. The only other AL team with more one-run decisions this year is Oakland (30). Cal Quantrill led a one-run win (3-2) for the Indians in his last start as he gave up only one run in five innings. It was his second consecutive victory. The Rays have lost four in a row as road favorites and I don’t see the home team doing any worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Cleveland | |||||||
07-17-21 | Bucks +4 v. Suns | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 47 h 18 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Zig-zag theory be damned, I’m fading Phoenix again in Game 5. While it was a somewhat fortuitous cover on the Bucks in Game 4 (they trailed by as many as nine in the 4Q), the key here is that the surprisingly large edge in FG% that the Suns enjoyed in the last game simply isn’t likely to be present again. They shot 51.3 percent from the floor in Game 4 - while Milwaukee shot just 40.2 percent - and still LOST. Even though they are on the road again, the Bucks shooting is likely to improve here and that makes taking the points seem like the logical option to me. Now Suns’ fans are obviously going to decry the foul trouble that Devin Booker was in throughout Game 4. Booker still ended up scoring 42 points, but spent long stretches on the bench due to the aforementioned foul trouble. Honestly, he should have fouled out of the game with a few minutes left. It’s very likely that Booker ends up not being whistled for as many fouls at home, but I don’t see him going for 40+ points again. The fact no one else on the team contributed more than 15 points in Game 4 should be worrisome to Suns fans. I just don’t see the team shooting as well as it did overall in the last game. Kris Middleton was the Game 4 hero for Milwaukee, who now looks to end an 0-5 SU/ATS streak in Phoenix. Middleton scored 40 Wednesday night, a number that teammate Giannis Antetokounmpo exceeded each of the previous two contests. Right now, I simply have more faith in the Bucks’ top scorers being able to collectively lift the team up (don’t forget Jrue Holiday) compared to their Suns’ counterparts. Milwaukee has to be pleased with the fact they have this series tied despite Phoenix finishing with a higher FG% in every game. Eventually, the Bucks are going to shoot better. I’ll bank on that happening tonight. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Down 0-2 in the series, the Bucks got the win they desperately needed in Game 3 and did so in emphatic fashion. Leading virtually the entire way, they had no problem covering the 4.5-point spread. It wound up 120-100 with Giannis Antetokounmpo scoring 41 points. The home team is now 3-0 SU/ATS in this series. Phoenix has not lost B2B games since the first round series vs. the Lakers and is 13-3 SU in its L16 games. They are 2-0 ATS off a SU loss during that time. But Milwaukee is very tough at home where they are 34-11 SU for the season with just one loss in the playoffs. I’m laying the points in Game 4. Remember when it was thought that an injured Antetokounmpo might not be a factor in this series? Neither do I. Kidding, but Antetokounmpo is off B2B 40+ point games. He went for 20-17 in Game 1. Clearly, he’s not hobbled by his left knee injury any longer. At home, he can expect help from Kris Middleton and Jrue Holiday, both of whom had good Game 3 performances. That duo combined to go 14 of 28 from the field and 8 of 17 from three-point range. The team averages 119.3 PPG at home. I expect a similar offensive effort to Game 3. Phoenix did not have a strong offensive effort in Game 3. Devin Booker really struggled, going 3 of 14 from the field, including 1 of 7 from three-point range. He finished with only 10 points. Booker figures to better those numbers in Game 4, but I also don’t think the Suns will shoot 48.2% from the floor again like they did Sunday. Milwaukee seems to have a huge edge in the paint and they outscored Phoenix by 15 pts from behind the arc in G3. Look for the home team to win again. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
07-11-21 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
10* Run Line LA Dodgers (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Dodgers -1.5. They absolutely humiliated Arizona last night, winning 22-1. So the Dodgers will go into the ASB with MLB’s top run differential (+139) while the D’backs will have the worst RD (-147). LA is 8-1 vs. Arizona this season, the only loss coming in the opener of this series. I obviously cannot see the D’backs beating the Dodgers twice in three days. Given what happened yday, a multi-run win for the home team seems pretty plausible. The Dodgers tied franchise records for most home runs (8) and runs scored in a game yesterday. Justin Turner and Mookie Betts both hit grand slams. Believe it or not, all the scoring came in four innings. It was 9-0 after two innings. Yesterday may have been an extreme, but the Dodgers are out-scoring opponents by two full runs per game at home this year. Arizona is getting outscored by 2.1 rpg on the road. One of the stranger things you’ll find is that the D’backs are 4-0 the L4 times that Merrill Kelly has started. This is a team that has lost 52 of its last 63 games overall! Unless Kelly has some “magic power,” I’d say that he is due for a loss. Before the 4-0 run, the team was 0-8 in Kelly starts in May and June. Tony Gonsolin starts opposite Kelly and has a 1.96 ERA in five starts this year. He’s yet to factor in a decision and now seems like a great time for his first win. Lay the -1.5. 10* Run Line LA Dodgers (-1.5) | |||||||
07-08-21 | Bucks +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (9:05 ET): Even with the return of Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks could not overcome Chris Paul and the Suns in Game 1 Tuesday night. Antetokounmpo didn’t just play, he contributed a strong effort with 20 points and 17 rebounds. Teammate Khris Middleton had 29 points. But where the Bucks were really hurt was the free throw line. Not only did they have 10 fewer attempts, they had 16 fewer makes. Phoenix was 25 of 26 from the charity stripe while Milwaukee was 9 of 16. That difference was basically identical to the difference in the final score. I look for a much tighter Game 2 and possible Bucks’ outright win. Take the points. Following their last three playoff losses, the Bucks have come back to win and cover the spread in the next game. All three wins were by double digits and the average margin of victory was 20.0 PPG! Now every one of those games was played in Milwaukee. But the Bucks have proven they can win on the road. They did so in Game 7 vs. Brooklyn in Round 2 and took two of three in Atlanta in the Eastern Conference Finals. While the Suns have opened the last two series with B2B wins, Game 2 vs. the Clippers was decided by just a single point (on a last second alley-oop). Phoenix lost its backup center (Dario Sakic) to a season-ending ACL injury in Game 1. While they were able to persevere and win the game, depth is now a bit of a concern. With Antetokounmpo back, this spread seems a bit high. I know he played in Game 1 and the Bucks still lost, but this team is 10-4 SU off a DD loss this season and 4-1 when trailing in a playoff series. I see Jrue Holiday scoring more than 10 points (his Gm 1 total) in Game 2. He missed all four three-point attempts. The Bucks are allowing just 104.5 PPG in the playoffs and I expect a better effort at the defensive end tonight. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
07-08-21 | Royals +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
8* Run Line Kansas City (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Royals +1.5. This is an excellent spot for KC to get on track, facing a Cleveland team that has lost NINE in a row and was just swept in a doubleheader yesterday. Plus the Royals have revenge as they were swept at home by the Indians back in early May. It seems almost shocking that we are able to get an additional 1.5 runs to work with against a team that’s lost nine in a row. The Royals won’t do any worse than a one-run loss here. Truthfully, Cleveland was due for a downturn. They had been overperforming their expected win total (based on run differential) all season. Even now, having dropped to .500, you look at the run differential column and see -29. The Indians have been hit hard by injuries, which helps explain the skid, but also they just aren’t very strong offensively. Seven of the last nine games have seen them score three runs or less. They managed only one run in 14 innings of baseball yesterday and didn’t even get a single hit in the second game. Kansas City is also on a nine-game losing streak - on the road. So something will have to give here. The Royals also just dropped two of three at home to Cincinnati. But this is a team they can beat. Yes, Zach Plesac (who starts for the Indians tonight) has had their number in the past. But tonight will be his first time starting since May 23rd as he’s fresh off the DL. Danny Duffy is the better starter in this matchup, at least in my eyes, as he’s allowed 3 ER or less in 8 of his L10 starts. Keeping Cleveland’s anemic offense in check won’t be hard and the Royals should easily stay within a run of the Tribe. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5) | |||||||
07-07-21 | Denmark +0.75 v. England | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 16 m | Show |
10* Denmark +0.75 (3:00 ET): Note that I am playing the goal line here. While I do think Denmark has what it takes to win this semifinal in “normal time,” playing the goal line only requires them to be tied at the end of 90 minutes + stoppage time. England is the favorite here as they are at home (Wembley) and have yet to concede a single goal in this tournament. But Denmark will be their toughest test yet (yes, even tougher than Germany) and at the very least this match will be level at the end of regulation. You can definitely expect the Danes to be the first to score on The Three Lions. England may be the favorite on the money line, but Denmark is the sentimental favorite after what happened with Christian Eriksen in the very first match of the tournament. After losing their first two matches, Denmark looked to be in real trouble. But they’ve since won three in a row, all in normal time. They scored four goals against both Russia and Wales, then outlasted the Czech Republic 2-1 in the quarterfinals. The goal conceded in the quarterfinals is the lone non-penalty conceded by Denmark during the three match win streak. In other words, they’ve been almost as stingy as England while also displaying far more offensive firepower. Denmark leads England in shots on goal (86 to 37), expected goals (10.1 to 7.8) and actual goals (10 to 8) in this tournament. I did play England in their quarterfinal match against Ukraine, but noted it was a clear fade on the underdog, who was easily the weakest of the eight teams remaining. Winning at Wembley will be tough as Denmark won’t have the crowd support that they’ve relied on for much of this run. But all we need is for them to be even after 90 minutes. This is a side that has trailed for only 20 total minutes in their last four matches. England had scored only four goals in its first four matches. 10* Denmark +0.75 | |||||||
07-03-21 | Rangers +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
8* Run Line Texas (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. Perhaps this is a case of me being “too stubborn,” but I am determined to continue fading Seattle as they have overachieved in incredible fashion this year, thanks to going 19-7 in one-run games and 9-1 in extra innings. They have a -41 YTD run differential, yet are five games above .500. Last night was another extra innings win, 5-4, as they improved to 13-0 their L13 home games vs. Texas. Eventually, this madness must stop. Why not tonight? Now the Rangers have some obvious flaws, but Jordan Lyles isn’t one of them. Starting on Saturday, Lyles is looking to continue a strong stretch of performances where he’s lowered his ERA by two full points. He just threw seven strong innings against Kansas City on Sunday, allowing only one run to score. Three of his last four starts at home have seen Lyles allow only 1 ER. It’s not like Seattle is a good offensive team either. They rank last in the American League in both batting average and OBP. They are hitting only .208 for the season at home! This Mariners “magic” will run out. Mark my words. Run differential is too good a predictor of future outcomes for their not to be a downturn in the standings. Marco Gonzales hasn’t started in nearly two weeks due to being on the paternity list. He’s only made three starts since April 27th. With only three quality starts all season and a 5.10 ERA, Gonzales probably shouldn’t be trusted in this spot. Because Seattle has been so lucky in close games this year, I’ll grab the +1.5 but I do expect the Rangers to win. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5) | |||||||
07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks -2.5 | Top | 118-107 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): This has become a difficult series to handicap as each team’s best player is injured and we don't know (for sure) what their statuses are for Game 6. Giannis Antetokounmpo is currently listed as doubtful for Milwaukee while Trae Young is questionable for Atlanta. What we do know however is that when each team has stepped up without its star player, it has been at home. The Hawks have won 15 of their last 18 home games going back to the end of the regular season and facing elimination, they are my call here (minus the points). Consider it a bonus if Young suits up. Young is more likely to play than Antetokounmpo tonight, not just because of the severity of injuries, but also because Atlanta is trying to stay alive. But it must be pointed out that the team had its best shooting night in a while, minus Young, the last time they played here at home. They basically dominated the entire game and won by 22. That was with Antetokounmpo playing more than half. The Bucks got 100+ points from their starters in Game 5, but asking for that again is probably a case of “asking for too much.” The reserves only scoring 17 in the last game is cause for concern as they now have to go on the road. Atlanta had its best overall shooting night of the series in Game 4, then had its best three-point shooting night in Game 5. So they’ve proven they can take care of business without Young. The same can be said for Milwaukee w/o Giannis due to what happened in Game 5, but the fact the Hawks are back at home now is a big reason why I am on them. Also, they are 2-0 SU/ATS when trailing in the series during this postseason. Milwaukee has lost four of its last six games on the road. The Hawks have lost B2B games only two times in the playoffs. So look for them to force a Game 7. 10* Atlanta | |||||||
06-30-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 130-103 | Loss | -107 | 35 h 0 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers lost their first three home playoff games (all to Dallas) before winning the next five. That streak came to an end in Game 4 of this series, a spot I faded them, as they lost an ugly 84-80 contest. But if nothing else, the Clippers have proven themselves resilient throughout this postseason. Everyone knows they are the first team in NBA Playoff history to overcome multiple 0-2 series deficits in the same postseason. Well, now they are trying to overcome a 3-1 series deficit against the Suns. They took the first step in doing so, winning Game 5 116-102 as a 5.5-point dog. After cashing them in that spot, I’ll take them again as they return home for Game 6. Phoenix is averaging just over 100 PPG (100.4 to be exact) in this series. That number gets a lot lower if you take out their 120-114 win in Game 1. As I mentioned in the Game 5 analysis, despite being down in the series, the Clippers have actually outscored the Suns. Their margin of victory in Game 3 (14 points) exceeded the combined margin of victory in Phoenix’s three wins (11). Now, after Game 5, the Clippers have actually outscored the Suns by a total of 17 points across the five games. Had they properly defended that out of bounds play at the end of Game 2, they would be the ones with a chance to move on to the NBA Finals tonight. The Clippers are 8-3 ATS this postseason when trailing in the series. They are now 3-0 ATS when facing elimination. The Suns averaged just 88 PPG in the two prior games here in LA and has not scored more than 104 in any of the last four games. With Kawhi Leonard still out, both Paul George and Reggie Jackson have stepped up big time. For the Suns, Chris Paul has not been good since returning from his COVID-related absence. He’s 0 for 9 from three-point range in the L2 games. The Suns are just 2-10 ATS their L12 road games vs. the Clippers. 10* LA Clippers | |||||||
06-29-21 | Bucks -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 88-110 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): This series could be “all over but the shouting” if Trae Young is unable to go for Atlanta. Young, who is easily the best player for Atlanta, sprained his ankle near the end of the third quarter in Game 3 and was clearly affected by it. The Hawks were outscored 30-17 in the 4Q, which basically decided the game. An MRI revealed Young has a bone bruise in his right foot. His status for tonight is questionable and while I’m sure he’s going to want to go, just how effective can he be? Even with improved 3-point shooting in Game 3, the Hawks still lost by double digits. Lay the points here. Obviously, you have to be careful NOT to overreact to an injury. But it’s difficult to overstate what a loss Young would be for the Hawks. This is not like the Clippers, who have Paul George to “pick up the slack” without Kawhi Leonard. Even if he does play, will Young be able to attack with his patented “floaters?” Or will he be relegated to being a jump shooter? He’s had some dreadful shooting nights in these playoffs, including Game 2 of this series. Milwaukee is a very good defensive team as they’ve allowed just 102.4 PPG in the playoffs. Over its last five games, all with Young, Atlanta has topped 103 just once. The Hawks have not been favored to win a game since Game 4 of the first round. So it’s impressive enough that they’ve got this far. I did take them in both Games 1 and 3 of this series (got a win and a loss there), but my feeling now is that their run is likely over and this series is probably ending in five games. Atlanta’s three-point shooting had been really bad for several games before improving on Sunday. But with Young injured and possibly out, it’s going to decline greatly. Believe it or not, but this is the first time the Bucks are ahead in a series since the first round. They went 3-0 ATS vs. Miami once they grabbed the series lead. 10* MIlwaukee | |||||||
06-28-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The Clippers have made a habit of climbing out of precarious positions this postseason, but the current one is the most precarious they have been in so far. An ugly 84-80 loss in Game 4 has them down 3-1 in this Western Conference Finals and facing elimination. Even though they’ve lost the first two games of all three series, the Clips have faced elimination just twice before. Those were Games 6 & 7 in the first round against Dallas and both saw them turn in outstanding efforts. Granted, they had Kawhi Leonard back then, but I think they’ve got enough left to at least still cover tonight. Take the points. Phoenix overcame some awful shooting, including 4 of 20 from 3-point range, to win Game 4. They are now hitting just over 25% from behind the arc over the L3 games. You might be fearful that they are “due” to improve, but the same could be said for the Clippers, who were even more dreadful in the last game. They made only 32.5% from the field and were 5 of 31 from three-point range. They also missed 11 free throws, which was killer. Considering LA was #1 in the league from three-point range in the regular season, I think their shooting is set to improve more in this game. Even though Phoenix has won three of the four games, they’ve actually been outscored over the course of the series! They’ve yet to win a game by more than six points. Considering that and just how low scoring the series has been, taking the points seems like a real prudent move here. This series could easily be 2-2 right now had the Clippers properly defended the out of bounds play at the end of Game 2. They are 7-3 ATS when behind in the series this postseason and this could be only the 4th time all season that they’ve been an underdog of 5.5 or more points. 10* LA Clippers | |||||||
06-28-21 | Cubs +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 4-14 | Loss | -167 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi Cubs (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Cubs +1.5. These are the top two teams in the NL Central and as it stands right now the Brewers have a three-game advantage. That’s mostly due to the events of this past weekend when the Brew Crew swept Colorado while the Cubs dropped three of four out in LA. I expect a reversal of fortune in this series, starting tonight and just to be “careful” I’ll grab the +1.5. The Cubs opened that Dodgers series with a no-hitter on Thursday, but could not score much after that, nor slow down the Dodgers. But they’ve got the “stopper” on the mound Monday in Kyle Hendricks. His team start record in his last eight starts is a perfect 8-0. He’s posted a 2.25 ERA during this career-best stretch and is now tied for the MLB lead in wins. Hendricks is also working on a 15 inning scoreless streak. Milwaukee is a weak offensive team and is actually dead last in all of baseball in team batting average (only hitting .210 at home!). This is a favorable matchup for Hendricks, who has allowed just 2 ER in 12 IP vs. the Brewers this season. Milwaukee starter Freddy Peralta has also been on fire of late. He’s allowed more than 3 ER only one time all season. He also has a 3-0 TSR against the Cubs with a 1.80 ERA and 25 strikeouts. But facing him for a FOURTH time, the Cubs hitters should have a better idea “what’s coming” tonight. Milwaukee is coming off B2B series against very easy opposition (Colorado, Arizona) so this will be the toughest team they’ve faced in a while. I have the Cubs higher in my own power ratings, so the +1.5 is a “no brainer.” 8* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5) | |||||||
06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +5 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): The Hawks are off a terrible loss in Game 2 as they were beaten by 34 points. It was 77-42 at halftime with the second quarter turning into a complete massacre as the Bucks outscored the Hawks 43-17. But now the Hawks get to come home where they have won 14 of their last 16 games. You’ve gotta think they’re shooting is going to improve as they made only 25% of their three-point shots in Milwaukee. Trae Young in particular is due for a bounce back as he went 1 for 8 behind the arc in Game 2. That was after he had 48 points in Game 1. Take the points in Game 3. No one on the Hawks scored more than 15 points in Game 2, which is really unbelievable when you think about it. It’s not just Young who I see “raising his game” tonight, but the supporting cast as well. Remember that role players often perform much better at home. There are four other double digit scorers on Atlanta besides Young (Collins, Bogdanovic, Gallinari, Huerter) and you should expect at least one of them to step up here. This team is 20-6 ATS its L26 home games and 3-1 ATS off a SU loss in the playoffs. Milwaukee shot 52.5% in Game 2 as they were able to consistently get better looks. But just as Atlanta’s production from its supporting cast should increase in this game, the Bucks’ supporting cast production should decrease. Friday was their highest scoring game in the postseason since Game 2 of the Miami series (Round 1). They never scored more than 108 in any of the four games at Brooklyn in Round 2. Jrue Holiday scored 55 points in the first two games of this series, an average he will not maintain moving forward, and most of Kris Middleton’s big games come at home. 10* Atlanta | |||||||
06-26-21 | Suns -1 v. Clippers | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Clippers won Game 3 at home and hope a familiar pattern continues tonight as they look to even this Western Conference Finals up at two games apiece. As you know, the Clippers have lost the first two games of all three of their playoff series. In each of the previous two instances, they have battled back to win Games 3 and 4. In the case of the Utah series, they won four straight after being down 0-2. No team in NBA Playoff history had previously EVER won multiple series in the same postseason when falling behind 0-2. So the Clippers are really defying the odds and doing so without Kawhi Leonard makes it all the more impressive. But I think the pattern is going to be broken tonight by Phoenix. The Suns certainly won’t shoot as poorly here as they did in Game 3 when they made only 38.9% from the field, including 10 of 32 from three-point range. After missing the first two games due to quarantine, Chris Paul returned for the Suns in Game 3 and did not shoot well (5 for 19). Nor did Devin Booker, who was 5 of 21. Booker had 40 points in the Game 1 victory, but has struggled with his shot the L2 games. Do not be surprised if he has a big game tonight. The Suns are 6-3 ATS off a double-digit loss this season. With their shooting likely to improve from Game 3, hopefully we’ll also be seeing a typical effort from the Suns at the defensive end as well. In the playoffs, they have held the opposition to just 102.4 PPG on 42.9% shooting. That’s pretty impressive in the “modern NBA.” The potential loss of backup PG Cameron Payne is a bit of a concern, but the Clippers are reeling more when Leonard still out and Marcus Morris being listed as a “gametime decision.” LA has no answer for DeAndre Ayton inside and Paul George’s minutes are really starting to add up. Might fatigue become a factor for George? The Suns have lost B2B games only four times this season. 10* Phoenix | |||||||
06-26-21 | Yankees +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -175 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
8* Run Line NY Yankees (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am backing the Yankees +1.5. It was a tough loss for me last night as I went big on the Yankees. They never led, but did answer Boston’s three-run first inning with three of their own in the top of the second. They also ended up out-hitting the Red Sox, 9-7. But they lost 5-3 and that is all that matters. Still though, I think all the necessary elements are present for the Yanks to bounce back and deliver a win tonight. Don’t forget it’s not just last night’s loss that the Yankees are looking to avenge here. They were also swept at home by the Red Sox earlier this month. Prior to these four straight losses, the Yankees had won 23 of 29 meetings against their bitter rivals. They are also 6-0 after allowing 5+ runs the previous game. Starter Jordan Montgomery has an 11-3 TSR this season, including 6-0 his L6 starts. He allowed just one run on three hits his last time out, a game NY won (2-1 against Oakland). Opposing Montgomery will be Nathan Eovaldi, who leads the Red Sox staff in wins (7). But Eovaldi hasn’t fared well in two of his previous three starts. He does hold a win over the Yankees this year, but has been shaky ever since, allowing 21 hits in 16 ⅓ IP. He gave up four runs to a bad Kansas City team in his last start. After playing well enough to win last night’s game, I just can’t see the Yankees doing any worse than a one run loss here. 8* Run Line NY Yankees (+1.5) | |||||||
06-26-21 | Angels +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 3-13 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
8* Run Line LA Angels (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I am taking the Angels +1.5. Tampa Bay is off a couple of one-run victories, including 4-3 in last night’s series opener. They’ve won three in a row overall going back to when I took them on Wednesday (and they clobbered the Red Sox 8-2). With this win streak, they’ve regained the lead in the AL East (half game up on the Red Sox) and are undoubtedly one of the AL’s best teams this year. Meanwhile, the Angels seem to be fading with four straight losses. But I don’t think they’ll do any worse than a one-run loss tonight. Tonight’s starting pitching matchup is interesting as the Angels’ Alex Cobb has a 5-0 TSR his L5 starts while Tampa Bay’s Shane McClanahan has an 0-4 TSR his L4 starts. So there’s an edge to the underdog. Cobb hasn’t started in over a week. The last time we saw him was last Friday, when I took the Over as the Angels faced the Tigers. Cobb’s teammates scored 11 runs for him that day (so the Over won), but lost in that offensive outburst was the fact Cobb pitched very well, giving up only an unearned run over 5 ⅔ IP. McClanahan is going to have to deal with the red hot Shohei Ohtani, who has homered in seven of his last nine games. Ohtani led off last night’s game with a HR and it went 453 feet. McClanahan has allowed at least one HR in each of those last four starts that the Rays have lost. The Angels had more total bases than the Rays did last night. The game ended up being decided by a HBP. Going into yday, Tampa Bay was hitting just .179 its L7 games and .219 for the year at home. The lack of offense will keep this one close (at least within one run) and I give the Angels a great shot at stealing it. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5) | |||||||
06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
8* 1st Half LA Clippers (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a first half play only. You’d be hard pressed to find a situation where a team is going to come out more motivated than when down 0-2 in the series and playing at home. That’s the situation the Clippers are in, once again. I made them my top play for the entire 2nd round when they faced this very situation against Utah. They won that game 132-106 and enjoyed a sizable halftime advantage. I also took them when they were down 0-2 in the Dallas series and they won that game 118-108. Not as confident this time about winning the game, but I definitely expect LA to be leading Phoenix at halftime tonight. This series could easily be tied 1-1, but Paul George missed a couple of late free throws (after the Clippers got a gift call) and then the Suns pulled off the miraculous out of bounds play to win Game 2. That was the ninth straight win for Phoenix, who is shooting better than 50% in the series. Even if Chris Paul plays tonight, I don’t see that kind of shooting from them tonight. The Clippers have shot well from three-point range in this series and I do see that continuing considering they were #1 in the league in 3PT % during the regular season. Since 2005, NBA home teams down 0-2 in the series and playing Game 3 at home have covered the first half line roughly two-thirds of the time. So history, not just their own, is on the Clippers side tonight. The fact they have fallen into their third straight 0-2 series hole is a little shocking, but I’ve got no doubt that they’re coming out hot early. They’ve actually trailed the Suns at the half each of the last four times they’ve faced them. But three of those four deficits were three points or smaller. 8* 1st Half LA Clippers | |||||||
06-23-21 | Hawks +8 v. Bucks | Top | 116-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (8:35 ET): They were outscored by 20 points in the series, but the Hawks won in seven games against the 76ers to advance to just their second Conference Final in the last 50 years. Three of the four wins were by four points or less, two of them saw them rally from a deficit of at least 16 points. After coming out red hot in Game 1 at Philadelphia, the Hawks never really regained their shooting touch, which makes the series win all the more improbable. I realize that none of this sounds like a “ringing endorsement,” but I’ll call for Atlanta’s shooting to improve and for them to cover the spread in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Just like Atlanta, Milwaukee needed to win a Game 7 on the road to get here. But the Bucks are now the favorites to win the NBA Championship after getting by Brooklyn and they’ve got the home court advantage. They’ve yet to lose a home game in the postseason (5-0 SU) and don’t forget they swept Miami in Round 1. However, the Hawks have traveled well in the playoffs, winning five of their seven road games against the Sixers and Knicks. I don’t think the one extra day of rest is going to matter much for Milwaukee. In fact, they are just 1-4-1 ATS their L6 games on 3+ days rest. The key for me here is that the Hawks’ shooting HAS to improve after what we saw in the last five games (42.9 FG%). That they won a Game 7 on the road while shooting 25.9% from three and their best player (Trae Young) going 5 for 23 overall was a minor miracle. This is a team that shoots 36.8% from 3-point range for the year. They’ve been below that average each of the L5 games, so they are due to regain their touch, Young in particular. Something that most don’t know is that the Hawks have the best SU record in the Eastern Conference (31-14) since Nate McMillan took over. Take the points. 10* Atlanta | |||||||
06-22-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): I passed on Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals as both teams came in on ATS win streaks (Clippers 4-0 L4, Suns 7-0 L7) but minus big stars. I was also unsure on how to handicap the difference in rest. What ended up happening was the Suns winning 120-114 and just barely covering the four-point spread (thanks to last second free throws). After taking the “wait and see approach,” I’m fairly confident that Phoenix won’t be able to shoot 55.1% from the field again. So take the points as I don’t think the number should be higher here than it was for Game 1. The Clippers actually drained seven more threes compared to the Suns on Sunday. Typically that results in victory, but not for Ty Lue’s team as Phoenix was far better on its two-point attempts, going 36 of 57, which is a ridiculous 63.1%. Devin Booker had a massive game, scoring 40 points to go along with 13 rebounds and 11 assists. I’m pretty confident that Booker isn’t going to be that good again. The rest of the Suns team (sans Booker) attempted only two free throws in Game 1, which is odd. No Kawhi Leonard for the Clippers has meant Paul George stepping up. In the three game without Leonard, George has scored 37, 28 and 34 points. Remember that the Suns are playing without Chris Paul. The Clips are the first team in NBA history to win two series in the same postseason in which they lost the first two games. They don’t dare fall into an 0-2 hole for the third consecutive series. They’ve been good on the road so far, winning all three games in Dallas and then Game 5 in Utah. You have to think that Phoenix’s 8-0 ATS run is going to come to an end sooner rather than later. Take the points. 8* LA Clippers | |||||||
06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -7 | Top | 103-96 | Loss | -108 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:05 ET): While it’s come down to a winner take all Game 7, I feel that the 76ers have largely dominated this series. I took them in Game 6, which they obviously won, and will reiterate much of what I said in that analysis. They’ve now outscored by Atlanta by 27 points over the course of six games. All three Hawks’ wins have been by four points or less (10 total) and in two of them they had to erase a deficit of 18 points of greater. Since losing Game 1, Philadelphia has shot better than 40% from three-point range. I will lay the points in Game 7 with what I feel is the better team. When I (successfully) played Atlanta in Game 1, a lot of my rationale had to do with the knee injury suffered by 76ers’ MVP candidate Joel Embiid. Well, save for a terrible second half in Game 4, Embiid has shown no ill-effects from that knee injury. He has been the best player in the series, averaging more than 30 points per game. In the three games here at home, Embiid has averaged 38.7 PPG, scoring at least 37 every time. He did not get to the free throw line much in Game 6 (only 4 attempts), but I expect that number to improve rather dramatically in Game 7. As a team, Philly shot just 40.9% on Friday, another number that should rise here. The last five games have seen the Hawks average only 104.8 PPG on 43.1% shooting. Sadly (for them), I do not see those numbers going up much in this game. Trae Young basically kept them in Game 6 all by himself, scoring more than a third of the team’s total points. With Game 7 being on the road, it’s less likely that his “supporting cast” steps up. Atlanta has a losing road record this year. De’Andre Hunter is a big loss at the defensive end. For Philadelphia, Ben Simmons is going to easily top his sorry six-point effort from the last game and the Sixers’ starting five is likely to attempt more than 14 total FTs as well. This series should already be over, but at least 76ers’ fans can now watch the clincher in person. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
06-18-21 | 76ers -3 v. Hawks | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): It is almost incomprehensible to me that the 76ers are now trailing in this series. They’ve outscored Atlanta by 22 points. They’ve shot better than 50 percent from the field (51.3% to be exact) in the five games, including 46 of 104 (44%) from three-point range in the last four. One could argue that the series should actually be over, or at the very least it should be Philly leading 3-2 headed into Friday’s Game 6. But after blowing leads of 18 and 26 points in the L2 games, the Sixers now face elimination for the first time in these playoffs. While the last loss was completely demoralizing, I think they will step up to the challenge. Lay the points. Both Philly wins have been by 16 points while Atlanta’s three have been by 10 points … total! Not since a shockingly good Game 1 performance (where I took them) has Atlanta enjoyed a double digit advantage in any game in this series. The 76ers have been up double digits in each of the last four games! But none of that matters now after they shockingly blew a 72-46 lead (at home!) with just over 20 minutes to go in Game 5. The past two games have seen the Sixers shoot substantially better than the Hawks. But they’ve taken 26 fewer FG attempts and struggled from the FT line. That’s how you blow 18+ point leads in consecutive games. The good news from Game 5 - if you’re a Philly fan - is that Joel Embiid had 37 points. That was a nice bounce back from his 0 for 12 effort in the second half of Game 4. Seth Curry helped Embiid out with 36 points, a career playoff-high. But the rest of the team totaled only 33 points. Expect that number to rise in Game 6. Atlanta is without its best defender, DeAndre Hunter, which is eventually going to catch up with them. I realize the Hawks have won 14 of their last 15 home games. But the 76ers easily could have won both Games 3 and 4 here. They are 10-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. They’ll stay alive. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks -5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): With the Bucks leading 74-57 in the third quarter of Game 5, I was feeling pretty good about having laid the points. Then Kevin Durant struck. But as great as Durant was, that was a Milwaukee gag job. The Bucks now return home facing another potential early postseason exit. But I’m laying the points again. Brooklyn is 0-4 straight up in Milwaukee this season. Kyrie Irving is out. James Harden was ineffective Tuesday night. Durant, coming off perhaps his best game EVER, won’t be that good again. Lost in the virtuoso performance from Durant (1st player to EVER do 45-15-10 in a playoff game) is that Harden simply wasn’t very good in his surprise return to the lineup. He finished with just five points on 1 of 10 shooting, including 0 of 8 from three-point range. Both Durant and Harden played 46+ minutes with the former going the full 48. That was certainly a curious decision from HC Steve Nash. I understand leaving Durant in, given how hot he was. But playing a hobbled Harden that long seems unwise. Giannis Antetokounmpo was clearly outshined by Durant, but did turn in his third straight game with 30+ points and 10+ rebounds. He came up small down the stretch, but it shouldn’t have come to that as the Bucks were up double digits most of the game. At home, with the season on the line, the Bucks should start to see their shots falling more. They’ve averaged just 98.8 PPG this series, on 43% shooting. They averaged 120.1 PPG during the regular season. In particular, the three-point shots should start to fall. We started to see that in Game 5 (13 of 32) and I think it continues here. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
06-15-21 | Bucks -4.5 v. Nets | Top | 108-114 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (8:35 ET): This series has changed dramatically over the past two games as we’ve gone from Brooklyn being up 2-0 to things being all squared away at two games apiece. Not only that, the Nets are now without the services of both James Harden (injured in Game 1) and Kyrie Irving (injured in Game 4). That changes the outlook on this Eastern Conference semifinal quite dramatically and oddsmakers now have the Bucks favored to take Game 5 in Brooklyn. I have no hesitation laying the points here as you have to remember that the Bucks actually went off as favorites here in Game 2 (when the Nets had Irving). Now Brooklyn dominated Game 2, making the line movement look foolish. But it’s a whole different ball game now without Harden and Irving. Truthfully, I thought Milwaukee might be the better team coming into this series. They held the Nets to 83 and 96 points the last two games and I certainly think they can do the job defensively on the road now that two of the Nets’ superstars are M.I.A. Remember that they led by as many as 21 in Game 3 and then pulled away in Game 4 once Irving went down. Kevin Durant is going to have to shoulder a huge load for Brooklyn tonight. The problem is he went only 9 for 25 from the floor in the last game as PJ Tucker did an excellent job of guarding him. No one besides Durant had more than 11 points for the Nets in Game 4 as they missed 23 of 33 three-point attempts. Meanwhile, Milwaukee seems to have rediscovered its shooting touch after making 16 of 47 3PA in Game 4. Yet they still haven’t hit their season average of 38% in any game in this series. That has to be scary for Brooklyn, especially considering how Kris Middleton has been heating up. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
06-13-21 | Suns -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (8:05 ET): It appears to be “all over but the shouting” in this Western Conference semifinal as the Suns have the injury-plagued Nuggets outgunned and outclassed. Phoenix can end this series tonight and in the process win their seventh consecutive game. Since being down 2-1 in the first round series vs. the Lakers, a switch has seemingly “flipped” with this young team that I still think is being underrated. They had the second most wins in the regular season and are 6-0 ATS during the current win streak. I’m laying the points as the Suns should finish off the sweep Sunday. Remember that the Suns’ rise began in LY’s bubble when they went a perfect 8-0. Including that, they are 66-22 their L88 games overall! Chris Paul has taken control in this series, leading victories by 17, 25 and 14 points. That’s an average margin of victory of nearly 19 PPG. Keep in mind they also closed out the Lakers series with a pair of double digit wins, one of them coming by 30 points. The last five wins have all been by 13 points or more. They are allowing just 98.9 PPG in the playoffs! Denver hasn’t lost four in a row at any point this season, but that’s about to change. MVP Nikola Jokic just isn’t getting much help in this series. This just isn’t the same team without Jamal Murray. Campazzo, Morris and Rivers all overperformed against Portland, but that’s a bad defensive team. The Suns are playing lockdown defense right now. Even the return of Will Barton hasn’t meant much to the Nuggets’ cause. Over the L6 games, Phoenix has not allowed more than 105 points. 10* Phoenix | |||||||
06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4.5 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (8:35 ET): The Clippers are in an all-too familiar position here, that being down 0-2 in a best of seven series. The same thing happened in the first round against Dallas, although in that instance they lost the first two games at home. That series would become rather infamous for the road team capturing the first six games (1st time in NBA Playoff history). This one has been a bit more “traditional” with top seeded Utah winning the first two at home. The Clippers are now hoping it’s the home team that “rules the day” in Round 2 as the series shifts to Staples Center for the next two games. I’m laying the points in Game 3. The last time the Clips played at home, it was the most important game of the season - Game 7 vs. Dallas. I took them and they delivered a 126-111 victory. Both games in Salt Lake City were close as they were decided by three and six points. Despite being down by 21 in the second half Thursday, Ty Lue’s team did come back and even took a brief lead in the 4Q. They also were up by double digits for most of the first half in Game 1. Though 0-2 ATS so far in this round, home teams down 0-2 in the series are typically sound bets. It would be foolish to write off the Clippers here. Utah has won the first two games despite not having the services of Mike Conley. He’s questionable for tonight. On the road, Conley’s absence would loom larger. I seriously doubt the Jazz will shoot 55% again as they did in Game 2. They were also 20 of 39 (51.3%) from three-point range in Game 2. Again, the chances of replicating that kind of shooting on the road seem small. Donovan Mitchell HAS to cool off, right? I think it’s time for the Clippers to break out offensively in this one as their three-point shots will start to fall. 10* LA Clippers | |||||||
06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +1.5 | Top | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): The story of the two games in Philadelphia was that each team was able to pick up a win following a hot start. I had the Hawks in Game 1 and they absolutely rolled (save for a shaky 4Q) thanks to a 42-point first quarter. I thought Game 2 was an obvious time to use the “zig zag theory” on Philadelphia and sure enough they jumped out to an early 18-point lead, held on, and won 118-102 victory as 6.5-point chalk. Now the series moves back to Atlanta - where the Hawks have won 13 in a row. I’ll “zig zag” again and take them as I’m surprised they opened as underdogs for Game 3. The loss of De’Andre Hunter (out for the season) is tough for Atlanta, but it’s not something they can’t overcome. Look for Trae Young to pick his shooting back up after a rare “off-night” in Game 2. After going for 35 points in Game 1, Young was held to only 21 in Game 2 and in particular, he struggled from three-point range by going just 1 for 7. The Hawks also seem to have a massive edge on the bench as their reserves have outscored their Sixers’ counterparts by almost a 2:1 margin through two games. And those two were played on the road. At home is typically where reserves play better. So expect the edge in bench points to be even bigger for Atlanta here. Joel Embiid has been great in the first two games, but remember he’s (theoretically) hobbled by a knee injury. The Sixers’ reserves had ZERO points in the 1H of Game 2 and aren’t likely to be bailed out by Shake Milton (14 pts in Gm 2) again. Let’s go back to something I said in the Game 1 analysis. Since Nate McMillan took over as HC, the Hawks have the best win percentage in the East, despite not always being fully healthy. Their last home loss was nearly two months ago. Philly has shot very well in the first two games (52%). Expect that to decline on the road. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): Through two games, things have not gone well for the Bucks. Ghosts of playoffs past seem to have reemerged as the team is shooting a woeful 29 percent from three-point range in the series. So much for that 1st round sweep of Miami convincing people (like myself) that this Bucks team would be different? Not so fast. The series now heads back to Milwaukee where there will be an obvious improvement in the Bucks’ shooting. As for Brooklyn, there’s just no way they can hope to maintain their current percentages of 55% overall, 44% from three and 88% from the FT line. Let’s not forget that sharp money was all over Milwaukee heading into Game 2. Said money turned out to not be so “sharp” as the Bucks were annihilated 125-86 as a 1.5-point favorite. They’d opened +2.5, so that line move was significant. I know Game 2 was a horrible performance, but it seems like we’re getting a discount here on the Bucks at home. This is a team that’s 28-10 SU on its home floor this season and averaging more than 120 PPG. Through two games, Milwaukee has been outscored by 66 points from behind the three-point line. That is simply not going to continue. They were one of the better 3-pt shooting teams in the regular season. Have we also forgotten about James Harden? He’s still out with a hamstring injury. I know Kevin Durant has been “out of his mind” and there’s only so much you can do to stop him. But on the road, I don’t think he’ll shoot 12 for 18 again like he did in Game 2. The triumvirate of Harris-Griffin-James has given the Nets 79 points in the first two games. Role players tend to struggle more on the road, so their production should dip as well. This is basically “do or die” for Milwaukee as another loss would have them down 0-3 and the season would basically be over. Lay the points as I expect an inspired effort. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
06-09-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
7* Run Line Seattle (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play as I am backing the Mariners +1.5. Seattle hasn’t been successful against Detroit this year (they are 0-4 head to head), which is pretty sad considering the Tigers are just 21-35 against everyone else and are tied for the worst run differential in the American League. The Mariners aren’t very ahead of them in that regard (-55 RD compared to -56 for Detroit), but in this battle of bad teams I’m playing the “revenge card” with an additional 1.5 runs in my “back pocket.” Last night’s game saw the Tigers jump on Seattle starter Marco Gonzales early with a three-run first inning. From there, it was “smooth sailing” as they went on to win 5-3. The M’s had some chances, but were just 2 for 12 w/ RISP. They actually got more runners on base in the game than did the Tigers. I’m not going to try and make the case that Seattle is a quality ballclub, but I do think they’re better than the opponent here. The M’s actually hit better on the road than they do at home. Chris Flexen, who starts Wednesday for Seattle, was victimized by one bad inning his last time out. If not for that one bad inning, he’d be coming into tonight off B2B quality outings. He’s allowed 1 run or less in half of his 10 starts this season and the Tigers have yet to face him. Casey Mize, who starts today for the Tigers, did face the Mariners in the previous series. Including that previous start, Mize has been on a bit of a solid run, but I expect the M’s to do better at the plate the second time seeing him. Seattle has been involved in a lot of one-run games so far and that’s all we need here. 7* Run Line Seattle (+1.5) | |||||||
06-08-21 | Clippers v. Jazz -4 | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
8* Utah (10:05 ET): The Clippers were good to me on Sunday (they were my 10* Game of the Week!) but I’ll gladly fade them here coming off the Game 7 victory. Yes, they went 3-0 SU/ATS on the road in the Dallas series. But winning at Salt Lake City will not be as easy. The top-seeded Jazz are not only rested (last played on 6/2), but they are 33-6 SU on their home court this season. They did drop Game 1 here to the Grizzlies, but that should only serve to have them MORE ready to go in the second round opener. They won the last four games of the Memphis series by an average of 11.25 points per game. Lay it! Keep in mind that Jazz PG Donovan Mitchell sat in Game 1 vs. Memphis. Upon returning to the lineup, he averaged 28.5 points and 5.8 assists per game. The team scored 120 or more in all four first round victories. As you might guess from a 33-6 SU record, this has been a dominant home team as they’ve won here by an average of nearly 13 PPG this season. In my first round analysis, I called the Clippers the #2 team in my power ratings, but guess who’s #1? I’m not here to say that the Clips don’t have a chance in this series; I just think it’s a terrible situation they’re facing here in Game 1 with the quick turnaround. Only five teams in NBA history have lost the first two games of a best of seven series at home and come back to win the series. The Clippers are the fifth. So they are definitely a bit lucky to be here. The league’s top three-point shooting team in the regular season, they struggled from behind the arc in the first round.. But then they finally had a break out effort in Game 7. Not sure I see a carryover though as Utah keeps its opponents to 32.8% from three-point range here at home. The Jazz took two of three regular season meetings, are 9-3 ATS L12 vs. LA and 20-8-1 ATS L29 times hosting them. 8* Utah | |||||||
06-08-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -5.5 | Top | 102-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:35 ET): I took the Hawks in Game 1, and while it definitely got a bit “dicey” at the end, I couldn’t have been more pleased with how things went. Trae Young and company jumped on the East’s #1 seed early with a 42 point first quarter. Atlanta led by 15 after 1Q, 20 at halftime and 16 after 3Q. But I’m not sure how anyone could bet the Hawks with any confidence in Game 2 based on how poorly they closed the game. Philadelphia, down 17 with 4:42 remaining, got within two in the final minute. I watched in horror as Atlanta displayed some of the worst late game execution that I have ever seen. As mentioned above, the Hawks started out hot w/ a 42-point first quarter. They made 14 of their first 18 shots. But gradually, the 76ers adjusted defensively and showed why they were the #2 ranked team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. It was their defense, specifically trapping, that got them back into the game. They used their size advantage and I expect to see lots more of that in Game 2. Philly lost just one other game previous to Game 1 this postseason (Game 4 vs. Wizards) and I backed them off that loss. They delivered a 129-112 and improved to 9-2 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. The other big story for Game 1 is that Joel Embiid played. He was great with 39 points and nine rebonds, showing no real ill effects from the injury he suffered in Round 1. As a team, the Sixers actually shot better than the Hawks in Game 1, 54.9% to 51.2%. But Atlanta made twice as many threes (20 to 10) and Philly missed 11 free throws (Ben Simmons being the biggest offender). I don’t see the three-point discrepancy repeating itself here in Game 2. Atlanta got the win it needed and can head home (where they’ve won 11 in a row) with no worse than a split. Classic zig-zag play here as the end of Game 1 should carry over into Game 2. Lay the points. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
06-07-21 | Nuggets +5 v. Suns | Top | 105-122 | Loss | -114 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:05 ET): It’s not that often you can say it’s “surprising” to see a 2-seed in the 2nd round of the NBA Playoffs. But that’s how I view the Suns, who got by the Lakers in six games. Maybe it was a mistake to underestimate Phoenix, although the Lakers came into the postseason still favored to make a repeat trip to the Finals. After three games, it very much looked like the Suns would be “one and done,” but give them credit for taking advantage of a banged up Lakers team and winning three straight. Now they face a Denver team that is also dealing with injuries, but has adjusted much better than LA did. The Nuggets also won their 1st round series 4-2. Even with Portland’s best player (Damian Lillard) “going off” on a consistent basis, the Nuggets were still able to get the job done. PG Jamal Murray’s season is over and Will Barton is expected to miss Game 1 tonight. But the likes of Michael Porter Jr stepped up big time against the Blazers with three games of 25+ points. Of course, you’ve got Nikola Jokic as well. He averaged 33.0-10.5-4.5 in the first round and 25.7-13.7-8.3 against Phoenix in the regular season. The Nuggets won twice here in Phoenix and the road team actually won/covered all three regular season matchups. Don’t forget about Chris Paul’s injury and its effect on the Suns. Through the first three games of the Lakers’ series, it looked as if Paul's injured shoulder was going to sink them. I’ve got these teams rated far closer than the spread indicates, even after factoring in a slight home court edge for Phoenix. The Suns, who like to play slow, aren’t going to hold the Nuggets under 100 points like they were able to do against the Lakers. I’m not sure they have an answer defensively for Jokic. Denver has already overcome Lillard, so Cory Booker doesn’t necessarily scare me here. Take the points. 10* Denver | |||||||
06-07-21 | Bucks +2 v. Nets | Top | 86-125 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): On the Nets’ very first offensive possession of Game 1, James Harden went down with an injury. He immediately went back to the locker room, never returned and has already been ruled out for Game 2. For most teams, the loss of a player like Harden would be devastating. But Brooklyn still has Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, who combined for 54 points. Then you had the likes of Joe Harris, Blake Griffin and Mike James combining for 49. The Nets ended up taking control of Game 1 in the second quarter and never looked back, winning 115-107 as 3.5-point chalk. They are 10-1 SU/ATS L11 games. I don’t think for a second that the triumvirate of Harris-Griffin-James is giving Brooklyn almost 50 points again. Also concerning were the number of minutes logged by both Durant (40:06) and Irving (44:35) in Game 1. While the Nets are “used to” playing w/o Harden at this point, this is the playoffs and his absence is more significant. Harden missed 18 straight games from April 5th to May 11th and the team lost eight of those games. This is not a team I trust defensively and Milwaukee is going to shoot much better from 3-point range in Game 2 than they did in Game 1. The Bucks also dominated the paint Saturday night, scoring 72 points. The Bucks did not shoot the ball well from 3-point range in Game 1 of the first round series against Miami. They missed 26 of 31 attempts. I immediately jumped on them for Game 2 and sure enough they shot 22 of 53 from behind the arc in a 132-98 blowout victory. Not saying it will be THAT easy tonight, but you can definitely count on improved 3-point shooting from Game 1 when they made just 6 of 30. This is a team that makes 38.3% of threes for the year. Eventually, the Bucks have to cover as underdogs (0-5 ATS this year). I think it happens Monday. Take the points. 8* Milwaukee | |||||||
06-06-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -6 | Top | 111-126 | Win | 100 | 27 h 31 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (3:35 ET): Led by Kawhi Leonard’s 45 points (tied a career playoff high), the Clippers forced a Game 7 with a 104-97 win (as three-point favorites) on Friday night. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info department, this is the first time in NBA Playoff history (excluding LY’s bubble - when there was no home court advantage) that the road team has captured the first six games of a series. The road team is 6-0 ATS as well. I just can’t see the streak reaching seven games though. I released a ~SIGNATURE~ *10* ULTIMATE POWER for Game 6 and they came through. Now look for the home team to finally win (and cover) a game. As I noted in my Game 6 analysis, LA has gone off as the favorite for every game in the series. The spread for Game 7 is roughly on par for what it was in Games 1, 2 and 5. While the Clippers lost all of those games, I still point to the fact they have outscored Dallas in the series - now by 21 points. Something that jumped out to me when analyzing Game 6 is that the Clippers have been the much better team on a per possession basis. Dallas has also seen its shooting decline dramatically the L3 games. They’ve been below 42% overall from the field each game w/ 3pt shooting really taking a tumble. The Clippers were the NBA’s #1 three-point shooting team in the regular season (41.1%) so it’s been surprising to see them down at 35% in this series. Still, I take it as a positive sign that they were able to win Game 6 despite shooting just 29.4% from behind the arc. They did take twice as many free throws compared to the Mavs and made 10 more. But Leonard was the key, not just offensively, but also at the defensive end when it came to stopping Luka Doncic. I think he’ll be the difference again Sunday. Lay the points as the home team is “due” to win (and cover) Game 7. 10* LA Clippers | |||||||
06-06-21 | Hawks +3 v. 76ers | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:05 ET): The Hawks turned a lot of heads when it took just five games to eliminate the Knicks. Trae Young was most definitely the best player on either team in that first round series and if Joel Embiid (questionable for Game 1) remains out for the 76ers, then Young is probably going to be the best player on the floor in this second round series as well. Regarding Embiid, though the Sixers did win the clincher vs. Washington, they are just 10-11 SU this season w/o the MVP Finalist. I don’t think many realize just how good this Atlanta team has been since Nate McMillan took over. They are 27-11 SU. That win percentage (.711) is the best in the Eastern Conference during that time. Philadelphia, who finished first in the East, won at a .703 clip in that same stretch. The Hawks were not a healthy team in the regular season as players combined to miss 278 regular season, fourth most in the league and most of all playoff teams. But now they are pretty healthy. DeAndre Hunter did an excellent job at stopping Knicks’ leading scorer Julius Randle. Atlanta held the Knicks to 39.9% overall shooting and 97.0 PPG. It won’t be that easy here, but Philly isn’t going to be shooting 51.1% in this series as they did vs. the defensively inept Wizards. If Embiid is out for any length of time, another potential issue for the 76ers is that their defensive efficiency rating jumps to 114.8 with the other four starters on the floor. Just to give you an idea of how big of a jump that is, a 114.8 defensive efficiency rating would rank dead last in the NBA. Philadelphia actually finished second overall in defensive efficiency. Now they have to concern themselves with Young, who is averaging 29.2 PPG in the playoffs and went over 30 in all three road games. Even if Embiid does play, he won’t be 100 percent. Atlanta is a hot team that is much better than most realize. This spread speaks volumes. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): Unlike the previous two postseasons, Milwaukee seems to be a bit underrated. They surprisingly made quick work of Miami in Round 1, sweeping the four game series and winning the L3 games by a combined 80 points. As I was looking ahead to the potential for a second round series with the Nets (which has obviously become a reality), my hope was that the Bucks wouldn’t be quite as dominant as I didn’t want them being viewed as a public side here. They’re still underdogs though and I think a case can be made that they were better than Brooklyn in the regular season. Take the points. Much will be made of the fact Milwaukee has had a full week off between series. Rest or rust? While I can’t fully answer that question now, I do think it was a GOOD thing that the Bucks had time to “come down” from the Heat series where they were looking to avenge LY’s Eastern Conference Finals. When it comes to the rest vs. rust debate, I don’t think there’s any real advantage or disadvantage here as Brooklyn has also had three days off. Both teams are 2-0 SU this season on 3+ days rest. The three regular season meetings between these teams were decided by a total of 11 points (none by more than six), so taking the points here seems like a reasonable option. Milwaukee posted the better regular season net efficiency rating and point differential. Obviously, Brooklyn is a different team now with all three of its stars (Durant, Irving, Harden) all in action. The Bucks had the higher defensive efficiency rating, which I view as key this time of year, and don’t be surprised when their three-point shooting improves from the previous round. Even with the home court advantage, I don’t think that the Nets should be favored by this many points. 8* Milwaukee | |||||||
06-04-21 | Clippers -2 v. Mavs | Top | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (9:05 ET): The road team is 5-0 in this series, a trend the Clippers certainly hope continues Friday as they look to stay alive in the best of seven series with Dallas. They’re now down three games to two after dropping Game 5 105-100 as 7.5-point chalk. Los Angeles has been favored in all five games and has actually outscored Dallas, so it has to be terribly disappointing for them to be down in the series. I considered the Clippers to be the #2 overall team in the NBA coming into the playoffs, so it’s hard for me to see them bowing out of the playoffs so early. Lay the points here in Game 6. You’d have to go back more than a quarter century, to 1995, to find the last time the first five games of a playoff series all went to the road team. So history is not on the Clippers side. But this is a team that’s 23-15 SU away from home this season. Meanwhile, Dallas’ home struggles are nothing new. While their YTD record here at the American Airlines Center is 21-17 SU, they are actually 15-23 against the spread and have been outscored. The last game here in Dallas saw the Clippers win by 25. They won Game 3 by 10 points while shooting 57.9% from the field. The Mavs’ overall shooting has come down the last two games. They made only 34.8%, including 5 of 30 from three-point range, in Game 4. Then it was 41.6% in Game 5, only for them to get bailed out by an incredible individual from Luka Doncic. The Clippers played one bad quarter on Wednesday, that being the third when they went 8 of 21. This was the #1 three-point shooting team in the league during the regular season and they had a higher defensive efficiency rating than Dallas in the regular season. They are actually scoring the third most points per possession in the playoffs. They are 8-2 ATS L10 in Dallas and I still believe they are the better team. 10* LA Clippers | |||||||
06-03-21 | Reds +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
8* Run Line Cincinnati (8:15 ET): Revenge game for the Reds and since the run line (+1.5) is available, I’ll take it. Both teams are coming off ugly losses. The Reds lost 17-3 to the Phillies on Tuesday while the Cardinals lost 14-3 in LA last night. Cincy got an unplanned off-day when yesterday’s series finale with Philly was rained out. That gives them a nice edge coming into today’s series opener as St. Louis has to fly back East with no time off. The fact that the Cards are now -10 for the year in run differential tells me they are quite lucky to be six games above .500. The Reds got off to a strong start this season (6-1), but are 10 games below .500 since that time. Pitching has been the main issue as they’ve allowed more runs this season than all but one team (Arizona). Hopefully, Vladimir Gutierrez can help stem the tide. After going 2-0 with a 2.65 ERA down at Triple-A Louisville, Gutierrez made a solid big league debut last Friday when he held the Cubs to just one run on two hits. The Reds lost the game 1-0, but remember that a one-run loss will suffice for us here. St. Louis is hitting .218 its L7 games. I expect Gutierrez to pitch well tonight and keep his team in this one. Hitting has not been an issue for the Reds this season. They’ve scored the 4th most runs in the National League with only the three heavyweights from the West (Dodgers, Padres, Giants) topping them. So getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with seems like a nice luxury to have. The Reds will have to deal with Adam Wainwright, but he’s been inconsistent all season and does not have a great track record facing Cincinnati. Wainwright is 10-14 all-time vs. the Reds with a 5.35 ERA. He’s allowed 4+ ER in four starts this season, one of them against the Reds (9-6 loss). 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5) | |||||||
06-03-21 | Nuggets v. Blazers -5 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): The Blazers are both facing elimination and at home tonight, so I’ll lay the points in this “must-win” scenario. Game 5 of this series was an all-timer as it went to double overtime, but despite 55 points from Damian Lillard (made 12 threes!) the Blazers still lost the game 147-140. The “zig-zag theory” (simply take the ATS loser of the previous game) has been a fairly reliable 3-1 ATS so far in the series and you just get “the feeling” that these teams are destined for a Game 7. It’s impressive that Denver has the series lead here despite being without their two primary ballhandlers: Jamal Murray and Will Barton. Nikola Jokic is having himself quite the series, averaging 32.4 and 11.0 rebounds per game and he’s registered a double-double three times. But playing this game on the road, I don’t think the Nuggets can count on the kind of performances they got from Monte Morris (28 pts), Michael Porter Jr (26) and Austin Rivers (18) in Game 5. Going back to last season, Denver is 0-5 ATS when leading in a playoff series. Lillard’s teammates really let him down in the two overtime periods Monday as they shot a collective 1 for 19 from the floor. That’s atrocious. Similar to the regression I see happening with some of the Nuggets’ role players, I look for Portland’s (role players) to improve. Besides Lillard, the rest of the Blazers went 9 of 31 from three-point range in Game 5. This is a team that shoots 38.7% from behind the arc for the season. While a lot of that is Lillard, expect CJ McCollum to play a lot better here. 10* Portland | |||||||
06-02-21 | Wizards v. 76ers -7 | Top | 112-129 | Win | 100 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The 76ers failed in their first attempt to eliminate Washington, losing Game 4 by a score of 122-114 (as 8.5-point favorites). Even worse, Joel Embiid left Monday’s loss with a sore knee. Long-term, that is something definitely worth monitoring. Short-term, I still expect the Sixers to end this series in five games, even if Embiid does not play Wednesday. The Wizards’ overall fitness is not exactly 100 percent and they are 0-7 SU in the City of Brotherly Love the L3 seasons. Lay the points. In addition to the Embiid injury, it was one bad quarter that doomed Philly’s prospects on Monday. After they took an 11-point lead in the 1Q, things tightened up by halftime. Then they were outscored 32-19 in the 3Q, which is when the game - and the franchise’s chance at its first series sweep in 36 years - got away from them. It was during the 3Q that Washington chose to employ a “Hack-a-Ben” strategy, as in Ben Simmons, whose inability to hit free throws really cost the team. Simmons is a hideous 5 of 20 from the charity stripe in this series. It will be interesting to see if the Wizards continue to elect to send him to the line in this game. If they do, Simmons must make them pay. Let’s not forget that Washington was last in the league in the regular season in points allowed per game. They’ve been even worse in this series, allowing the 76ers to score an average 122.7 points in the four games. Russell Westbrook has played the L2 games, but is banged up, and Davis Bertans is now out for the rest of the series. That’s no matter as the Wizards’ season is going to end tonight as Philadelphia is a strong 8-2 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite this season. Three-point shooting has been a massive problem for the Wiz in the L3 game, which is not a surprise as the Sixers were #2 in the league during the regular season in number of points allowed per possession. Vintage “zig zag theory” here. 8* Philadelphia | |||||||
06-01-21 | Celtics v. Nets -12 | Top | 109-123 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
8* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): I went with the Nets in Game 4 and that turned out to be rather easy as they blew past the Celtics 141-126. It was the most points ever scored by the franchise in a playoff game as they torched Boston for 57.8% shooting, including 16 of 27 from three-point range. More importantly, the win puts Brooklyn on the cusp of advancing to the second round. It is certainly in their best interest to advance ASAP, given that Milwaukee swept Miami. I think it’s pretty clear that the Nets are the vastly superior team here and short of another 50-point game from Jayson Tatum, they should win big. Tatum did go for 40 in Game 4, but that wasn’t nearly enough as his teammates shot just 42.8% from the field. Tatum got nearly half his production from the foul line (17/17), which can’t be counted on when you’re on the road like Boston now is for Game 5. Making Tatum’s job even tougher here is that the Celtics are playing short-handed. Both Kemba Walker and Robert Williams III sat out Sunday and may be out again here. Even if one or both injured players were to suit up tonight, I don’t think it will matter much. Walker is shooting just 31.8% in the series. Williams averages only 6.3 points per game. Going back to the end of the regular season, Boston has won only three of its last 10 games. I did take them in Game 3 (winner!), figuring that would be their “best effort” of the series and it was. But they are clearly outclassed here as the Nets got 80+ points from Durant/Harden in Game 3, then 80+ from Durant/Irving in Game 4. Too many weapons. Brooklyn is averaging 123.5 PPG in the series and shooting 49.3% overall, 41.3% from three-point range and 92% from the FT. Boston is now 0-9 ATS in its L9 times when playing with just one day of rest. Look for this series to end tonight in blowout fashion. 8* Brooklyn | |||||||
06-01-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
8* Run Line Washington (7:20 ET): The Nationals were swept at home by the Braves early last month. They failed to exact revenge yesterday, losing the series opener 5-3. That was a bad call by me, my only loss out of four MLB plays for Monday. But I think the Nats have an even better shot at exacting revenge Tuesday as Stephen Strasburg will be on the hill for them. Please note that this is a run line play only where I’m taking Washington +1.5. Three of the seven times these NL East rivals have met this season, the game has been decided by exactly one run. It’s been a very disappointing start to the season for the Nationals as they are in last place in the division (with a 21-29 record) and currently on a five-game losing streak. But Atlanta has actually been one of the biggest money losing teams at the betting window this season as they are down 9.2 units in all situations. They’ve actually been priced as a 40-win team, but they are 20-20 when favored on the money line and 25-26 overall. They had two of the previous three days off (rain), so maybe that’s why they were able to start so strong yesterday (led 4-0 after two innings). Still, it was Washington that finished the game with more hits. Leadoff man Trea Turner killed the Nats yesterday by going 0 for 5 with four strikeouts. (I expect him to do better today). Having Strasburg on the mound also helps the Nats’ cause here. Earlier in the year, he tossed six shutout innings of one-hit ball against the Braves. He’s pitched well in both starts since returning from the DL, allowing only three runs total in 10 ⅓ innings. This will be the third time Washington has faced Max Fried this season, so that’s an advantage. Fried gave up five runs in just two innings the first time. He was better the second time, but I think the third time will be the charm here for the Nationals. Expect no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5) | |||||||
05-31-21 | Nationals +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -129 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
8* Run Line Washington (5:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play where I’m taking the Nationals +1.5. The last series was not a good one for the Nats as they were swept at home by Milwaukee. They scored only three runs in that series and have now lost five of six overall, including four straight. In those six games (against the Reds and Brewers), Washington has crossed the plate only nine times and been shutout twice. It’s certainly looking somewhat grim right now for the last place team in the NL East. Up next for the Nationals is a visit to Atlanta. The Braves had an unexpected off-day Sunday as their game with the Mets was postponed due to rain. That was a break as they avoided facing Jacob deGrom in what was scheduled to be the ESPN Sunday nighter. But don’t be surprised if the rain out “throws the Braves off” a little. They are actually just 15-25 after an off-day the L3 seasons. They were beaten 13-2 on Saturday (by the Mets) and have been a disappointment this season at the betting window (-10.2 units). Washington has revenge here for a three-game sweep at the hands of the Braves earlier this month. Three of the six games these teams have played in 2021 have been decided by one run, so you can see how the RL can come in handy here. A big key here is that Atlanta starter Charlie Morton is 2-6 with a 6.14 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Nationals. Joe Ross gets the call today for the visitors and he’s allowed two runs or less in seven of nine starts this year. He threw four shutout innings his last time out. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5) | |||||||
05-30-21 | Nets -7 v. Celtics | Top | 141-126 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:05 ET): The Nets jumped out to a 19-4 lead on Friday and appeared well on their way to taking a 3-0 series lead. But Boston had the lead (33-32) by the end of the first quarter, something they would only briefly relinquish, and would end up winning 125-119 as seven-point underdogs. They were carried by Jayson Tatum’s 50 points. As someone who had the Celtics plus the points in Game 3, I loved it. But I also don’t think there’s any disputing who the stronger team is in this series. I’ll go with them (that being the Nets!) tonight in Game 4. Lay the points. Going into Game 3, Brooklyn was basically even money to sweep this series. So the odds are still strong that they’ll finish off the Celtics in five games instead of four. Boston simply shot the ball better in Game 3 (50.6%) than they did in either game at Brooklyn, led by Tatum’s incredible individual effort. If you were to take out the shooting of Kemba Walker and Romeo Langford, then the Celtics’ Game 3 shooting effort was downright insane. It’s something that won’t be repeated tonight in Game 4, even though they are still at home. Boston has not won B2B games in the month of May. Meanwhile, Brooklyn had won and covered seven straight before the Game 3 loss. An “off-night” was fairly predictable, which is why I took the Celtics in the last game, but so is the bounce back tonight. Outside of the “Big 3” (Durant, Harden, Irving), the rest of the Nets scored just 23 points on Friday. That number is going to go up here. The Nets were the NBA’s highest scoring team in the regular season and actually averaged more on the road than they did at home. This is the first time in the series with just one off day between games. Boston is 0-8 ATS its L8 games with just one day of rest. 10* Brooklyn | |||||||
05-29-21 | Cardinals v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
8* Run Line Arizona (10:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I’m taking the D’backs +1.5. Arizona just keeps on losing as the streak has now reached 12 in a row following last night’s 8-6 defeat at the hands of the Cardinals. Fortunately, I was on the Over, which was an easy winner that cashed in the top of the fourth inning. As bad as things are in the desert right now, five of the losses during this streak have been by one run. I’m confident Arizona gets it done today with the benefit of the RL. After putting eight runs on the board last night, some may be tempted to say St. Louis “broke out” of its recent offensive slump. But that’s really not the case. They only had six hits. They’re batting just .200 the L7 games and .216 for the year on the road. Arizona, meanwhile, has left the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth in two of their last three losses. They average 5.0 rpg at home (.263 team BA). Last night saw them leave 13 runners on base. It was a game they easily could have won. Adam Wainwright was sharp in his last start for St. Louis, allowing just one hit over eight scoreless frames. But that was at home. On the road, he has an 0-3 team start record, 8.56 ERA and 1.829 WHIP. So don’t be surprised if he struggles tonight. Then there’s the matter of the Cardinals scoring three runs or less in seven of Wainwright’s nine starts this season. Seth Frankoff is making just his third start of 2021 for the D’backs and it should go better than the last one (which was at Coors Field). 8* Run Line Arizona (+1.5) | |||||||
05-29-21 | 76ers v. Wizards +6.5 | Top | 132-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): Same strategy here as last night’s winners on Boston and the Clippers. We’re taking the team down 0-2 and this one seems real similar to the Celtics play as the Wizards are at home and being largely “written off” in this series with the top seeded 76ers. Right now, the big story is the “iffy” status of Washington PG Russell Westbrook, who rolled his ankle in Game 2 and is listed as questionable for Game 3. But if there was ever a time to take the Wiz it would be here as you’ve got to figure we’re getting their best effort with the season on the line. Even if Westbrook does not play, the Wizards still have Bradley Beal, who was the league’s second leading scorer in the regular season. Westbrook or no Westbrook, Washington will definitely shoot better from three-point range here compared to the last game when they went a dismal 2 of 22 from downtown. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen such poor three-point shooting, especially from a team that averages 116.5 PPG. As you’d expect, the Wizards’ scoring average jumps here at home (to 119.6 PPG) and the role players should universally benefit from being back in familiar surroundings. Washington has won its last four home games and the last time they played here (play-in game vs. Indiana), they scored 142 points. Philadelphia won’t shoot 55.7% from the floor again as they did in Game 2. They’ve now scored 120 or more in four straight games, going back to the end of the regular season. But all four games were at home. Their scoring drops pretty dramatically on the road where they average just 109.8 PPG (as opposed to 117.7 at home). While the Sixers are 31-7 SU at home this season, they are only 20-16 SU on the road. Washington has covered five straight times off an ATS loss and Philly is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. 8* Washington |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Steve Janus | $751 |
Chip Chirimbes | $636 |
Rocky's Lock Club | $630 |
Pure Lock | $473 |
Marc Lawrence | $380 |
Mike Lundin | $340 |
Jack Jones | $305 |
Rocky Atkinson | $291 |
Dave Price | $274 |
R&R Totals | $265 |