Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-25-17 | Royals v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that every game in this three-pack is a run line play. Here I am taking the White Sox +1.5. Chicago rocked Kansas City in last night's series opener, winning 12-1, so being able to get a 1.5 run cushion with them tonight seems like a real luxury. Especially considering KC can't score at all right now. Over the last eight games. they have been held to two runs or fewer EVERY TIME out! They've scored just 10 runs total during that span, so the idea of them winning by multiple runs here seems foolishly optimistic. Their lone non one-run victory over the L10 days was a 2-0 game. Starter Danny Duffy seemingly brings some hope, but the White Sox are 5-1 against lefties so far. The home team won't do any worse than a one-run loss here. These AL Central rivals came into this series as the two lowest scoring offenses in the American League. But the White Sox offense showed up yesterday, totaling a season high in runs and matching a season-best w/ 15 hits. The most impressive thing about the performance is that it came against Jason Vargas, who had the lowest ERA in all of MLB coming into Monday. Therefore, there's no reason fret Duffy, even though he's 4 for 4 so far in terms of quality starts. But one thing to keep an eye on w/ Duffy is that he's walked 10 batters so far. Those extra baserunners allowed haven't really burned him yet, but could here. In addition to 25 hits, Tigers' hitters have drawn eight walks the past two games. That's 33 baserunners total! Certainly, White Sox starter Dylan Covey might give you pause. He was rocked his last time out, giving up eight runs and 10 hits (three HR's) at Yankee Stadium. But in his first start, he allowed just one run and five hits over 5 1/3 IP. And again, what's to worry about this Royals' lineup? They managed only two hits yday and have scored the fewest number of runs in all of baseball. They're batting just .177 and have gone 2-9 on the road. The decline has been fast from winning the World Series two years ago and I just don't see how the oddsmakers justify installing KC as a road favorite here. Not after the White Sox scored more runs yday than the Royals have over their last eight games - combined! 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5) | |||||||
04-25-17 | Mariners v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
8* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that every game in this three-pack is a run line play. Here I am taking the Tigers +1.5. There was a time when fading Felix Hernandez would be considered foolish. But King Felix is no longer what he once was and he and the Mariners have been downright terrible on the road this year. Thus, there is an opportunity to grab an additional 1.5 runs with the home Tigers here and I'll pounce on it. While I'm a tad bit suspect of the Tigers' 10-8 start (-14 run diff), they have won two straight including a 13-4 win Sunday. Tonight marks their return home from a nine-game road trip. They should be ready to roll in what is only their fifth night game of the season (statistical oddity!). Look for them to do no worse than a one-run loss here. Seattle is just 2-9 on the road so far w/ the lineup batting a collective .205 in those games. That's a major reason why I'm going against them here. While they did win 11-1 at Oakland Sunday, they'd also dropped the first three games of that series. With Hernandez, he may have won his L2 starts, but both were at home and there's been some warning signs. Such as him allowing a season high in both runs (4) and hits (12) his last time out where he was fortunate to be get plenty of run support. He allowed two home runs in that game, a 10-5 win over Miami, as well. He's now allowed five already this year. It was also the second time in the L3 starts that the former Cy Young winner allowed 10+ hits. He did face Detroit once last year and pitched well, but that was at Safeco Field. Interestingly, the home team won all seven matchups between these two teams in 2016. Countering Hernandez will be Jordan Zimmerman. He too was less than stellar his last time out. It's actually been B2B subpar efforts from him. But his first start here at Comerica Park was quality as he held Boston to just one run and four hits in six innings of work. If he can do that to what was the top offense in MLB last season, then why can't he do the same to a lineup that simply hasn't produced on the road this year? I'm well aware of the somewhat "makeshift" lineup the Tigers will be fielding here, but as mentioned before, the group was still able to put together 13 runs in the last game. I suspect the Tigers will be happy to be home and the day off probably did them some good. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5) | |||||||
04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 101-111 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:05 ET): Just a few days ago, the Wizards' playoff prospects were looking quite rosy. Not only did they hold a 2-0 series lead over the Hawks, but in the other half of their bracket, the 8-seeded Bulls had the same edge over the top-seeded Celtics. What a difference a couple of days can make! Not only have the Celtics rallied to tie up their series (2-2), but the Wiz were blown out in Game 3 by Atlanta, 116-98. It was a game the Hawks "had to have" and they played like it, leading the entire way. But that one result has created somewhat of an ideal scenario for Game 4 where I believe Washington is a solid value. Atlanta is still a mediocre group in my eyes and the likelihood of them playing that well in B2B games is quite minimal. Take the points. Don't blame the great John Wall for the Wizards' Game 3 loss. He scored 29 points, just missing out on a third straight 30+ pt effort. The issue was the other four members of the starting five combined for only 30 points Saturday! I'm willing to write that performance off as a "one-hit wonder" though as Washington fell behind huge early and never recovered. It was a 38-20 game after the first quarter and that 18-pt difference wound up being the final margin. For the Hawks, Paul Milsap and Dennis Schroeder both turned in strong efforts w/ 29 and 27 pts respectively. I wouldn't necessarily be anticipating a repeat of that performance tonight. Meanwhile, Wall's backcourt mate Bradley Beal is in line for a bounce back as he scored only 12 points on 6 of 20 shooting (0 for 6 from three-point range) in Game 3. That was after averaging 26.5 points in the first two games. Emotions are running high in this series w/ Markieff Morris and Milsap trading barbs via the media. Note that the impressive and somewhat physical defensive effort we saw from the Hawks in Game 3 is somewhat rare. They actually allow 105.6 PPG at home this year. I often forget Dwight Howard is even on this roster (you too?). After a double digit win, Atlanta is only 6-11 ATS this season. They're also just 4-8 ATS after topping 115 points. I look for improved shooting from Washington tonight and don't discount the importance of them having the best player in the series (Wall) on their roster. 10* Washington | |||||||
04-23-17 | Celtics v. Bulls +3 | Top | 104-95 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
10* Chicago (6:35 ET): After zigging with my Game of the Week on the Celtics in Game 3, I'll be "zagging" so-to-speak here on the Bulls for Game 4. The home team has yet to win a game in this best of seven affair, which 8th seeded Chicago now leads two games to one. The big story going into Game 3 had been the top seeded Celtics being down 0-2, but quickly shifted once it was annouced that the Bulls' Rajon Rondo would be out for the remainder of the series w/ a broken thumb. The early returns w/o Rondo were not good as the Bulls lost Game 3, 104-87, while committing 17 turnovers and having only 14 assists. But, I believe they'll bounce back tonight, as Rondo's absence really doesn't affect the Bulls' one key edge in this series and that's rebounding. Take the points. Chicago finished the year 4th in rebound rate. Boston was 4th worst (27th). The Bulls, not surprisingly, currently own a significant edge on the boards through the first three games of this series. In playing Boston Game 3, I somewhat disregarded this edge for the Bulls and instead chose to focus on their poor shooting numbers. Sure enough, Jimmy Butler had an "off-night" as he was 7 of 21 from the field and didn't even attempt a single free throw (just 4th time all season). Now though, I expect Butler specifically and the rest of his teammates to bounce back. As we all know, rebounding is the way to counteract poor shooting. I can't envision Chicago shooting below 40% from the field again at home, which included 6 of 21 from three-point range. At the same time, expect Boston to regress from its 47.7% shooting percentage from Game 3. I also don't expect them to make 17 three-pointers again. Boston came into the playoffs as a somewhat shaky #1 seed. After the first two games, they appeared to be even shakier. As I anticipated, they then blew the Bulls out in Game 3, but one result won't change everything, nor will Rondo's absence. Concerning is that the Celtics only got to the FT line SEVEN times in Game 3. I should also mentione that they are just 5-11 ATS (only 9-8 SU) the game following a double digit win. As an underdog, the Bulls are 28-18 ATS this season, including 10-5 at home. They did cut the Boston lead to one (after trailing by as many as 20!) in Game 3. The Bulls are also still the better defensive team here. 10* Chicago | |||||||
04-22-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* San Antonio (8:05 ET): The Spurs actually lost a game to Memphis, getting blown out in Game 3, 105-94 as 3.5-pt favorites. That final score is a little misleading in the sense that the Grizzlies led by as many as 22 in the second half (81-63 after third quarter). That snapped a 10-game playoff losing streak to San Antonio and was also HC David Fizdale's first ever postseason win. But while the price range has remained unchanged for Game 4, I believe that the result will. The Spurs have been an excellent bounce back team all season long, going 16-5 SU off a SU loss w/ the average margin of victory coming by 11.8 points per game. Fizdale's epic post-game rant (after Game 2) did its job, but it will be difficult to match that emotion for a second straight game. Remember that the Grizz are still w/o ace defender Tony Allen. Lay the points. What was the difference between Games 1 & 2 vs. 3 (besides the venue)? Well, Memphis simply shot the ball a lot better. They were above 50% from the field, a far cry from the pair of sub-40% performances in San Antonio. While they may not shoot as poorly tonight as they did in the first two games, I do expect a sharp decline from Game 3. Remember that the Spurs are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. Memphis is one of the lowest scoring teams in the entire league and actually doesn't even average 100 PPG for the year. They scored only 82 in each of the first two games. Essentially, it was one quarter (the 3rd) that broke Game 3 open for the Grizzlies as they outscored the Spurs by 14. That quarter saw them make 10 of their first 14 shots while San Antonio missed 11 of its first 17. That stretch basically decided the game. At the other end of the floor, look for the Spurs' Kawhi Leonard to regain his lost touch. After matching his career playoff high w/ 32 pts in Game 1 and then setting a new high w/ 37 in Game 2, he went for only 18 pts in Game 3. Without Allen to defend him, it's simply not likely that Leonard will have too many more "off nights" in this series. Tony Parker averaged 15 PPG in San Antonio, but was scoreless on four shots in Game 3. LaMarcus Aldridge was the only other starter besides Leonard to score in double figures as the entire five was pulled in the fourth quarter. Expect across the board improvement from each of the individual starters here. Meanwhile, Memphis has won only two of nine games in April and regression is likely. I expect Greg Popovich to stress the importance of finishing this series in five games to his players. 10* San Antonio | |||||||
04-22-17 | Raptors +2.5 v. Bucks | Top | 87-76 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
10* Toronto (3:05 ET): Needless to say, the Raptors got humiliated in Game 3. They lost 104-77 (were 2-pt underdogs) and the game was never really close as they trailed by 20 after the first quarter and 32 after three. That loss dropped them to a terrible 7-20 ATS in all playoff games the L3 years, including 2-12 ATS in first rounders. DeMar DeRozan was as big a culprit as any Thursday night, going 0 for 8 from the field. That was the worst shooting performance in the playoffs by a player who averaged at least 25 points per game in the regular season, ever. Toronto now trails the lower seeded Bucks 2-1, but as was the case in Game 2, I expect them to bounce back from a SU loss. We saw w/ a play earlier this week (OKC over Houston Gm 2) that teams off a blowout loss are often vastly undervalued the next game. That's the case here. You'll perhaps recall that PG Kyle Lowry took the brunt of the blame for the Raptors' Game 1 loss at home. He shot 2 for 11 overall, including 0 for 6 from three-point range. In my Game 3 analysis, I wrote that a big game from both DeRozan and Lowry was imperative considering the Raptors are 8-2 SU when both scored 20+ in the same game. This Toronto team, not Cleveland or even Boston, finished the regular season w/ the best net efficiency rating and point differential in the Eastern Conference. That was despite being w/o Lowry for most of the second half. Being held to 83 pts and 77 pts by Milwaukee in this series has been relatively stunning. This is a team that averages 106.2 PPG for the year. Fortunately, DeRozan should improve. So if Lowry can keep his act together, the Raptors may again get a good game from both members of its starting backcourt. In Game 2, they combined for 45 points on 50% shooting. Also notable is that the Bucks are just 7-18 ATS the L3 seasons after holding a team to 85 points or less. This was priced as only a 39-win team in the regular season. Remember; Milwaukee is a young team that is not accustomed to playing with any kind of series lead. Ranking only 19th in defensive efficiency is worrisome as well (Toronto is 8th) and the Bucks are also inferior at the offensive end as well (13th vs. 6th). Had the Raptors not shot only 20% in the second half of Game 1, they very well would have won both home games. 10* Toronto | |||||||
04-21-17 | Celtics +1.5 v. Bulls | Top | 104-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:05 ET): Coming into the playoffs, many questioned the validity of the Celtics as the East's #1 seed. Certainly, they were not the favorite (Cleveland is). Nor did they finish the regular season with the best point differential or net efficiency rating (Toronto did). But I don't think anybody expected them to drop both games at home to the mediocre Bulls. The only way I can explain what has transpired so far in this series is that the 8-seed has a decided edge in rebounding and has exploited it. In the regular season, Chicago ranked 4th in rebound rate while Boston was 27th. In the two games so far, the Bulls are +22 on the boards, although Game 2 was close to even. Obviously, the passing of Isaiah Thomas' sister has had an effect on the Celtics' best player, but he did have 33 pts in Game 1 and the team still lost. With the series now moving to the Windy City, I think people are going to be quick to write off the Celtics, but that's a mistake. Take the points. With Chicago winning both games in Boston, a shift from the oddsmakers was predictable, but I'm not yet convinced the Bulls should be favored. As I said earlier, this was a decidedly mediocre team in the regular season. They barely outscored their opponents over the course of the 82 games. They were only priced as a 36-win team, so they slightly overachieved, and when favored they actually didn't perform all that well. Not only did they go 15-21 ATS, but they were just 19-17 straight up. They were also 28th in true shooting and 30th (last) in effective field goal percentage, so this is a bad offensive team. But they shot 51.1% from the floor in Game 2. I'm as shocked as any that they've averaged 108.5 points the first two games. The likes of Paul Zipser and Bobby Portis have made unlikely contributions thus far. Changes are likely in the Celtics lineup for Game 3, but HC Brad Stevens in being coy. One thing we do know is that Boston is 8-3 SU/ATS this season following a double digit loss. This team posted a winning road record in the regular season and it's their offense that I expect to come alive tonight in the United Center. Note Chicago only shoots 43.8% from the floor at home. Boston averages a healthy 106.5 PPG on the road and I expect FT shooting to improve from the first two games. This is a team that shoots over 80% from the charity stripe. A "must win" for the Celtics and I have them getting the job done. 10* Boston | |||||||
04-20-17 | Raptors +1.5 v. Bucks | Top | 77-104 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
8* Toronto (8:05 ET): I'm going w/ the Raptors, on the road, for Game 3. They evened this series up at 1-1 w/ a 106-100 win in Game 2 Tuesday. However, they failed to cover (closed as 8-pt favorites), dropping them to 2-11 ATS in first round playoff games the L3 years. But, they did lead by double digits early in the fourth quarter before letting the Bucks back in the game. Kyle Lowry was a lot better than he was in Game 1, shooting 50% overall, and the team went from making just five three-pointers in Game 1 to 14 in Game 2. Even after factoring in the change in home court, it certainly seems to appear as if there's some value here on Toronto, who is now an underdog for just the second time in seven meetings this year vs. Milwaukee. Take the points. After winning and covering this season's first three head to head meetings w/ the Bucks, Toronto has failed to cover three in a row. But as I just stated, only once previous to tonight have they been an underdog to Milwaukee. While they did lose that game, 101-94 (despite outshooting the Bucks), I still feel the oddsmakers have overadjusted here. Toronto went 12-7 ATS in the regular season as a road dog and overall they've been favored in 15 of their last 18 games. The key tonight is not just Lowry, but DeMar DeRozan as well. Game 2 marked the 10th time that both members of the Raptors' starting backcourt scored 20+ points. The team has gone 8-2 SU in those games. Milwaukee was not great as a home favorite during the regular season, going only 18-11 SU and 12-17 ATS. Obviously, the pointspread is likely irrelevant here as the SU winner is almost assured of covering the spread. But still, that SU record isn't exactly great either. Overall, the Bucks were favored just 39 times during the regular season, so you can actually say they overachieved. Down the stretch, they went 17-10 SU, but were actually outscored on a per possession/game basis. Ranking only 19th in defensive efficiency is worrisome as well (Toronto is 8th) and the Bucks are also inferior at the offensive end as well (13th vs. 6th). The Raptors are simply the better team here and were it not for a dreadful second-half shooting performance in Game 1 (20%!), then they'd likely already be up 2-0. 8* Toronto | |||||||
04-19-17 | Thunder +8 v. Rockets | Top | 111-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): I came into this series thinking that OKC didn't have much of a chance seeing that I've labeled them as "overrated" much of this year. But even I was taken aback at how thoroughly they were dominated by the Rockets in a 118-87 Game 1 loss. Thus, I anticipate it will an "abandon ship" mentality here from the majority of bettors. But I'll choose to "buy low" as I expect a bounce back tonight in Game 2. Remember that last year saw the Thunder get crushed in a Game 1 matchup vs. the Spurs (124-92) and they came back to not only win Game 2, but the entire series. There's no Kevin Durant obviously for this go-around and I'm not convinced OKC can come back to win this series. But they'll at least cover tonight. Take the points. This series very much centers around the individual battle between Houston's James Harden and OKC's Russell Westbrook, who are thought to be the two leading MVP candidates. In the four regular season head to head matchups, Westbrook outscored Harden by about 16 PPG. But, scoring was 37-22 in favor of Harden in Game 1. Obviously, if Westbrook only scores 22 again, the Thunder have little chance. But I anticipate his scoring will go up tonight. He probably can't shoot any worse than he did Sunday night when he went 6 of 23 from the field, including 3 of 11 from three-point range. Patrick Beverley gave Westbrook trouble, but can he do it again? I should point out that the series opener was a five-point game going into halftime. Things really fell apart for OKC in the fourth quarter, leading to a somewhat misleading final score. On the defensive end, the Thunder did a good job limiting the Rockets on three-pointers. Houston was just 10 of 33 from behind the arc in Game 1, so the fact they still won by 31 is somewhat shocking. The key was 62 points in the paint, half of them coming on second-chance opportunities. Here is where the big difference should come for Game 2. OKC was actually the top rebounding team in the league during the regular season, so I don't anticipate Houston enjoying that same kind of edge inside again. Overall, the Thunder rate as the better defensive team here (10th in efficiency vs. 17th). Beverley scoring 21 pts again shouldn't happen as defending Westbrook is likely to wear on him. 10* Oklahoma City | |||||||
04-18-17 | Bulls v. Celtics -7 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:05 ET): Every home team playing on Tuesday lost Game 1 outright. The Celtics are the top seed in the Eastern Conference but a 106-102 loss to the pedestrian Bulls will do nothing to dispel the notion that they are somewhat fortunate to own that distinction. Of course, a major storyline heading into this series is the death of Isaiah Thomas' sister. Thomas, his team's best player, performed admirably in Game 1 (33 points on 10 of 18 shooting) but clearly had to be affected by the obviously horrible situation. For the first 44 minutes of the game, neither side had more than a two possession lead. So it's not as if Boston played all that poorly. They were outrebounded (53-36) and their bench outscored (35-22). But I don't expect those kind of discrepancies here plus Chicago's Jimmy Butler isn't likely to score 23 pts in the second half again. Lay the points. The Bulls were thought to have the edge in rebounding coming into this series as they ranked 4th in rebound rate during the regular season while the Celtics were 27th. But cleaning up the defensive glass is imperative here for Boston considering how poorly Chicago tends to shoot the ball. In the regular season, the Bulls ranked dead last in the league in effective field goal percentage and were 28th in true shooting percentage. It's not like they shot the ball that well in Game 1. They were just 42.9% overall including 8 of 25 from three-point range. Going 20 of 23 at the line was key as were all 35 pts from the reserves. The performance of Bobby Portis was particularly preposterous as he had 19 points, nine rebounds and two blocked shots. Portis averaged only 6.8 points and 4.5 rebounds in the regular season. So besides rebound better and hope the Bulls bench regresses, what else can the Celtics hope for here? Well, they should shoot better as a whole. They averaged 109.4 PPG at home during the regular season on 45.5% shooting. They were slightly below both numbers in Game 1. Also, I should point out that Chicago is just 17-25 SU on the road. They had gone 0-2 SU/ATS in their two reg season visits to Boston, including a 20-point loss last month. As much as I feel the Celtics are a weak #1 seed (I have them rated third in the conference behind Toronto and Cleveland), it's not like the Bulls are a great team. The home team should bounce back in this one as teams seeded 1-3 in the first round of the playoffs are 50-6 SU, 37-17-2 ATS if they lost Game 1 outright. 8* Boston | |||||||
04-18-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -7.5 | Top | 100-106 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): So, as alluded to in the play on the Over for this game, I'm going to be laying the points w/ the Raptors here. Incredibly, Game 1 marked the EIGHTH conseuctive playoff series that Toronto dropped Game 1. Twice last year, they were able to rally back after doing so, ousting Indiana and Miami. I feel it will be a similar "song and verse" in this series. Much of my confidence comes from the likelihood that Toronto's offense, Kyle Lowry in particular, will perform much better tonight than Saturday. For the record, after losing Game 1 of their first round series vs. Indiana LY, the Raptors came back to not only win, but also cover the spread in Game 2. Same thing this year. Lay the points. Toronto actually led Game 1 at the half, 51-46. But the wheels came off after halftime w/ them scoring only 32 total points on 7 of 35 shooting! They finished the game at only 36% from the field. Lowry was the biggest offender, going 2 for 11 (no FT attempts!) including 0 for 6 from three-point range. As a team, they shot 5 of 23 from behind the arc. I expect across the board improvement here in Game 2. Like I mentioned in the Over writeup, this is a team that averages 110.2 PPG at home for the year. They shoot 47.2% overall from the floor including 37% from three-point range. The Bucks are 6-18 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 85 pts or less the last three seasons. Though I like this game to go Over, it is worth noting Milwaukee has failed to top 100 points in six consecutive games. Interesting is that even though the Bucks went 17-10 SU down the stretch, they were outscored during that time. This is a team w/ a losing road record and considering they've already "stolen" home court advantage for the series, the likelihood of a letdown here is strong. 8* Toronto | |||||||
04-17-17 | Grizzlies +11 v. Spurs | Top | 82-96 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 17 m | Show |
10* Memphis (9:35 ET): The Grizzlies were absolutely hammered in Game 1. I had the Over, a play which cashed, but it was no thanks to the Grizz. They scored just 82 points in a 29 point loss. Predictably, after suffering such a blowout, they'll be getting plenty more points in Game 2. That's a perfect time to attack, in my opinion. Needless to say, it's not as if things can go any worse than they did Saturday where they shot only 39.2% from the floor and the Spurs shot 53.2%. As explained in my analysis for Game 1, losing Tony Allen hurts both literally and figuratively, but Memphis remains a staunch defensive team. They also beat San Antonio twice during the regular season. Granted, both wins were at home, but never have they gotten this many points. With a pointspread this high and a total so low, taking points just seems like the natural way to go. It should be pointed out that it was only a three-point game at halftime Saturday and Memphis actually led after one quarter of play. After halftime, they could make nothing. They scored just 33 pts in the second half. Incredibly, they scored only 52 points over the last three quarters! That's very rare. As good as the Spurs are defensively (#1 in efficiency), they will be hard pressed to match that Game 1 performance. They key trend here is that double digit dogs are 26-12-1 ATS come playoff time when off a SU loss. Think of the Grizzlies as a stock. This is a good "buy low" situation. I know that in the analysis for my Game 1 Over play, I wrote extensively about the impact Allen's absence would have. But the Grizzlies were the #3 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season and should be able to play respectable enough on that end of the floor even w/o Allen. Kawhi Leonard is unlikely to match Saturday's performance in which he matched a career playoff high w/ 32 points. Lost in the blowout was the fact the Grizzlies' Marc Gasol scored 25 first half points, the most by any player against a Greg Popovich team in playoff history! Gasol obviously isn't likely to be as prolific in the first 24 minutes here, but he's also likely to score more than the seven he scored in the second half Saturday. Spurs are just 2-5 ATS L7 when leading in a playoff series. 10* Memphis. | |||||||
04-15-17 | Jazz +5.5 v. Clippers | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 33 h 56 m | Show |
10* Utah (10:35 ET): Make no mistake about it. The fact that the Jazz conceded home court advantage to the Clippers late in the year for this 1st round playoff series could end up being their death knell. But, that's no reason to think they can't be competitive or even steal a game here at Staples Center. After all, the Jazz did finish the year w/ a superior efficiency rating. They are also the superior defensive team here, ranking third in the league in defensive efficiency and first in points allowed. That's obviously significant. The Clips' three regular season wins over the Jazz all did come by double digits, but I anticipate this game being close w/ the underdog certainly having a shot at the outright win. Take the points. Look for the Jazz to slow the pace down in this series. They played at the slowest pace in the league during the regular season. That aided them in giving up just 96.8 points per game. Considering the defensive numbers, I have been absolutely shocked to see this team struggle as an underdog. They are just 5-17 SU and 6-15-1 ATS in that role, but it's rare that they get this many points. It's difficult to overstate Rudy Gobert's impact on the defensive end as he averages a league-high 2.64 blocks per game. For so much of the year, this team was not healthy. They still won 51 times and remember they were priced to win 60. That's more than the Clippers, who were favored "only" 58 times. After a 14-2 SU start, LA went a modest 37-29 the rest of the way. Yes, some of that was Chris Paul and Blake Griffin both missing time. When that duo plays together, this is certainly a dominant team. But while bench play is somewhat mitigated this time of year, the Clippers' reserves have long been an albatross. In the four head to head meetings between these two, the Jazz' reserves outplayed their Clippers' counterparts. In their three losses to the Clippers, Utah shot poorly. I do not anticipate that being the case here in Game 1 as overall this was a good shooting team (46.6 FG%) during the year. 10* Utah | |||||||
04-12-17 | Twins +1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -155 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
8* Minnesota Run Line (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Twins +1.5. A 100+ loss team a year ago, the Twins opened 2017 by winning five of their first six games. They lost yday by a 2-1 margin, which obviously would have been a winner via the RL. By far, the most surprising Minnesota-related thing this season has been the pitching staff. With the exception of one game, they've allowed three runs or less. In fact, they are currently #1 in MLB in runs allowed w/ only 15. This is a massive turnaround considering LY they were last in the league on the runs allowed side of the ledger. Not sure how long the pitching prowess lasts, but today the club will do no worse than a one-run loss in the Motor City. The Tigers are also now 5-2 having won four of five at home. But three of those victories have come by a one-run margin. Yesterday saw starter Matthew Boyd take a no-hitter into the sixth inning. However, that almost wasn't enough as the Tigers offense managed only four hits for the game themselves (Twins finished w/ five). The home team's only runs scored both came on a James McCann home run in the fifth. Starting here will be Michael Fulmer, who I expect to regress in 2017 despite a strong first showing. Fulmer threw six scoreless innings of four hit ball last week vs. Boston, but did not factor into the decision due to the bullpen blowing a four-run lead. Last year's AL Rookie of the Year, Fulmer now has a 9-0 TSR in his career when he does NOT factor into the decision. Starting this afternoon for Minnesota will be Kyle Gibson. He too got a no-decision in his 1st start of 2017, but unlike Fulmer, did not pitch that well. He gave up three runs in just five innings of work. That said, the first four innings were scoreless. The Tigers are a familiar opponent for him as this will be the 11th time he's faced them. Detroit has homered in every game this season, but other than that hasn't done much hitting. Only twice have they finished a game w/ more than six hits. To me, Fulmer was fortunate to have his WL record last year and is due to drop some games, starting here. 8* Minnesota Run Line (+1.5) | |||||||
04-11-17 | Hornets +7.5 v. Hawks | Top | 76-103 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 57 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:35 ET): Atlanta is off a pair of stunning victories over Cleveland, the second of which saw them become just the third team in NBA history to rally back from a deficit of 26 points or more in the fourth quarter. Those two wins have them in the playoffs, though their seeding remains totally up for grabs. They could finish anywhere from fifth to seventh depending on how these last two games go. Tomorrow night, they'll wrap their regular season up against Indiana, a national TV game that will play a significant role in who finishes were (the Pacers are one of the teams fighting w/ the Hawks for playoff position). But up first, the Hawks must host Charlotte and this looks like a classic overlay due to the teams' respective lots in life. Take the points. I'm telling you right now. Next year, I will be subbing Charlotte in for Atlanta as a playoff team in the Eastern Conference. Despite being only 36-45, which is 6.5 games back of the Hawks, the Hornets have actually outscored their opponents over the course of the season and have a positive net efficiency rating. Atlanta can claim neither of those two distinctions. In fact, the Hawks are ninth in the Eastern Conference in point differential. Charlotte lost last night in Milwaukee, 89-79 as 6.5-point dogs, and will again be w/o leading scorer Kemba Walker here. That, along w/ Atlanta trying to lock down the 5-seed, has conspired to make this line far higher than it should. Teams are often significantly undervalued in the second game of a back to back. Now, the Hornets are just 4-22 SU as underdogs this year. But the real reason they won't be making the playoffs is an 0-9 SU record in games decided by three points or less. They are also 0-6 SU in overtime games. Another close loss here would do us just fine and I should note that Charlotte is 3-0 SU/ATS head to head vs. Atlanta this season.That includes one of those four SU wins as a dog, which took place here in Atlanta back on December 17th. As discouraging as last night's offensive effort was, Charlotte is definitely undervalued in this spot. Atlanta, meanwhile, is just 3-8 ATS after scoring 115+ points the previous game. They were extremely lucky to beat Cleveland both times over the weekend. 8* Charlotte | |||||||
04-10-17 | Rockets +5.5 v. Clippers | Top | 96-125 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show |
8* Houston (10:35 ET): The Clippers find themselves in the midst of a fierce battle for home court advantage (w/ the Jazz) in the 1st round of the playoffs while the Rockets already know who they'll be taking on next week (Oklahoma City). That being said, LA does not deserve to be favored by this much against a superior team, even here at Staples Center where they have lost only seven times all year as a favorite. They are just .500 at the betting window in home games. I suspect the reason for this inflated number is that Houston finds itself playing in the second game of a back to back. They won last night in Sacramento, 135-128, but failed to cover as nine-point favorites. It was their seventh straight game not covering. But fortunately, they are 13-2 SU, 10-4-1 ATS in the second game of a back to back. Take the points here. The Rockets put up 75 points in the first half last night, the 10th such time they've tallied 70+ before halftime this season. Granted, it was "only the Kings," but be aware that non-cover was a byproduct of being "backdoored" in the fourth quarter (outscored 39-28). James Harden, who is the thick of the MVP race, answered Russell Westbrook w/ his own triple double last night (35-11-15). To me, Houston is clearly the third best team in basketball. It is rare to find them getting points, but when they do - take 'em. Their record as an underdog this season is 9-3 ATS (9-1-1 on the road). Earlier I mentioned the Rockets' excellent record when playing w/o rest. I've often harped upon the fact that unrested teams are among the most undervalued in the sport, especially when on the road. Incredibly, the Rockets are outscoring opponents by over 10 PPG in the second game of a B2B and that includes a 3-0-1 ATS mark if both were on the road. The Clippers have taken advantage of a somewhat fortuitous schedule of late in compiling a five-game win streak. That includes games against the Suns, Lakers and Mavs. They did post an impressive 98-87 victory at San Antonio (who was NOT resting starters) on Saturday. I suspect that result also has a heavy influence in this number being inflated. The Clips' defense has been much better of late, but this is the second most efficient offense in the game they'll be facing tonight. It's a national TV affair and w/ Harden making his case for MVP, Houston will be motivated. To me, this line should be closer to a pick 'em. 8* Houston | |||||||
04-07-17 | Thunder v. Suns +8 | Top | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): Yes, it must be mentioned that a Suns team that has lost 13 straight games has absolutely nothing to play for here. But neither does Oklahoma City really. In all likelihood, the Thunder will be the 6-seed in the playoffs play Houston. From an individual perspective, Russell Westbrook is still looking to make history and become the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple double over the course of a season. He needs one more triple double to set the single season record (42). But something I've been harping on all season is that overall, OKC's offensive efficiency is way down from last year w/ Kevin Durant. They also have a losing road record and are outscoring teams by less than a point per game. Clearly, this number is inflated. Take the points. Phoenix has not won a game since beating Dallas 100-98 back on March 11th. While a 13-game losing skid is bad no matter what way you "slice it," the fact is the Suns have been competitive in most of the games. They did fall behind Golden State 41-18 after one quarter on Wednesday, but quickly rallied back to make it a five-point game at halftime and very nearly covered the spread for the game, losing by nine as 8.5-pt home dogs. This line is curious because Oklahoma City is getting basically the same respect from the linesmakers as did the Warriors and that notion is pretty preposterous. Golden State is outscoring teams by double digits this season while the Thunder have been pretty mediocre. The Suns beat the Thunder here at home last month (118-111) and were only five-point underdogs then. I mentioned earlier that OKC has a losing road record. They are just 17-21 SU and being outscored by 4.3 points per game. They did just win at Memphia, but only by three. Giving up 108.1 PPG on the road makes it tough to cover as a favorite in this price range and while the defense has been better the L2 games, I see it regressing here as the Suns are #2 in the league in tempo and average 109.1 PPG at home. Rookie point guard Tyler Ulis has played well of late, including a 34-point effort Sunday vs. the Rockets. I see the home team keeping this one closer than expected. 10* Phoenix | |||||||
04-06-17 | Bulls v. 76ers +6.5 | Top | 102-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): The Sixers infamous "process" has generally been maligned, but at least the team is getting it done at the betting window where they are a league-best 48-29-1 ATS. Miami is the only other team in the league right now that can claim to be covering at better than a 60% clip. Now things have gotten dicey in the City of Brotherly Love recently as the team has reverted back to its past ways by losing four in a row. By far, the more humiliating (and inexcusable) defeat of the quartet came here at home Tuesday against Brooklyn when they allowed 141 points. That result is sure to cause the majority of bettors to "write this team off" but I'll buy low as Chicago is unworthy of being in this price range on the road. Take the points. The Bulls also enter in off an embarrassing defeat. There's also came Tuesday, but on the road. Fighting for their playoff lives, they fell to the sorry Knicks, 100-91 as five-point chalk. Don't let that final score fool you into thinking it was a close game either; the Bulls trailed by as many as 25 in the third quarter in a disastrous effort which saw them shoot 38.1% from the field and commit 15 turnovers. I was on the Knicks in that game and in my analysis I made it clear that the Bulls are an unworthy road favorite. I'm sticking to that story here. The team's record away from the Windy City is just 15-24 straight up. This will be just the 8th time all year that they have been favored on the road. Overall, they've been outscored this season, including by 2.6 points per game on the road. I'll concede that Philadelphia's current lineup resembles a M*A*S*H unit, but there's still a sense of pride involved with professional players and those left playing out the string will certainly want to atone for Tuesday's disastrous showing. "Today our performance was under any NBA level," said rookie forward Dario Saric, in reference to the Brooklyn loss. There is simply no way that the Bulls will end up shooting as well as the Nets did Tuesday night. Not only did Brooklyn score 81 (!) pts in the 1H, they were 12 of 17 on three-pointers and shot 64% overall for the game. Chicago has been one of the worst offensive teams in the league all season, ranking 28th in true shooting and dead last (30th) in effective field goal percentage. A very easy schedule may cause this subpar team to make the playoffs, but it won't come easy. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
04-05-17 | Heat v. Hornets -1.5 | Top | 112-99 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): To call this an "important game" from both the Hornets' and Heat's perspectives would be a mild understatement. Right now, both are on the "outside looking in" when it comes to the Eastern Conference playoff picture. Miami is in much better position though as they are just one-half game out of seventh place, which is currently shared by Indiana and Chicago. Charlotte is two games back and with only four more to play, a loss here would be crippling. Losing last night in Washington really hurt. Getting outscored 36-18 in the third quarter is what did them in. But I've maintained all year that this team is better than its record shows (they have outscored their opponents this season!) and I'm going to stick w/ them here. If the Hornets ultimately do not make the playoffs, they can pin their fate on an awful 0-9 SU record in games decided by three points or less. They are also 0-6 SU in overtime games. That is quite the contrast from last season when they went 5-0 SU in OT and finished sixth in the East. I already mentioned that this year's squad has a positive point differential for the year and their net efficiency rating is also "in the black." Overall, I rate the Hornets as slightly better than the Heat, so I believe this line should be higher. Normally, when these teams meat here in Charlotte, the Under is automatic. It's cashed eight straight times and 23 of the L29 meetings. But here, beware of the fact the Hornets come in averaging 112.8 PPG their last five games and 106.6 PPG overall at home. Miami is also off a loss. Actually, they've dropped B2B games as favorites, both at home. The losses came to the Knicks and Nuggets, the latter taking place on Sunday as they basically trailed the whole way. They were torched for 116 pts, including 37 in the first quarter. A real key to the recent stumbles has been the absence of Dion Waiters. He'll be out again tonight. Waiters was the reason the Heat beat the Hornets in the last meeting (24 pts), but in the first two meetings this year, the team shot just 35.7%. One final thing I should point out here is that Charlotte blew a double digit lead last night. Holding division opponents to just 97.6 PPG this year, I look for the home team to record a huge win tonight. 10* Charlotte No ActionNo | |||||||
04-04-17 | Bulls v. Knicks +4 | Top | 91-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
10* New York (8:05 ET): Chicago finds itself in currently in playoff position, despite being one game below .500. They've won four straight and are in seventh place. Right now, only five games seperate fifth from 11th place in the East. The Bulls have only a one game lead over ninth place Indiana. Meanwhile, the Knicks are already out of contention in what has been another lost year. They come into tonight having lost 10 of 13, including a 110-94 loss to Boston on Sunday. Yet they're a good value here, or rather the Bulls are a team I wouldn't want to be laying points with on the road. As bad as things might have been in the Big Apple this year, the Knicks do have a winning ATS record. Take the points. Chicago's road record is only 15-23, so they are hardly an ideal candidate to be laying points in this situation. Over the course of the season, they've still been outscored, not only on the road, but overall as well. Like I said earlier, they have won four in a row though. Three of those victories came as dogs. The latest was in New Orleans Sunday, 117-110 as 8.5-pt dogs. That was a game where Jimmy Butler scored 39 points and the entire team shot well. But I look for a decline in offensive numbers moving forward. For the year, they average just over 102 PPG. Their last five games have seen them average 117 PPG. The Knicks are 2-0 SU/ATS head to head w/ the Bulls this season, including a 15-pt win here in MSG back in January. They also won by double digits in Chicago early in the season. While the Bulls are projected for a decrease in offense, the Knicks are set to see an uptick given that they average 105 PPG at home, yet have failed to break 100 pts in five of the past six games. Carmelo Anthony did not play Sunday, but is set to return here. Who cares about the absence of Derrick Rose at this point? As bad as things have been for the Knicks this year, I would still rate this matchup as a pick em, so naturally taking the points is the way to go. 10* New York | |||||||
04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga +2 | Top | 71-65 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 51 m | Show |
10* Gonzaga (9:20 ET): It has all come down to this. Two #1 seeds, one stored program and the other not so much. Gonzaga let me and the rest of their backers down Saturday, beating South Carolina 77-73 as 6.5-pt dogs. (They had led by as many as 14 in the second half). But the 'Zags will "take it" as they won their first Final Four game ever. North Carolina also survived a close call, winning by just a single point over Oregon and thus not covering. To preserve the victory, they got two offensive rebounds after going 0 for 4 at the free throw line. It was a very lucky win as was the one over Kentucky in the Elite 8. That's two straight wins by two points or less for UNC. Teams favored by two points or less in the National Championship Game have lost four straight times. I'm on Gonzaga here. Defensive efficiency is such a key metric to me. It's something I've been harping on throughout this tournament. It actually served as a great predictor of South Carolina's surprising run as they rank third nationally in defensive efficiency. Gonzaga ranks 1st. North Carolina isn't bad, but they're 16th. They held Oregon to just 37.9% shooting Saturday, which was impressive, not to mention needed as they only shot 36.8% themselves. Outside of Kennedy Meeks, no UNC player had a good offensive game. People will want to predict improvement for this matchup, but I'm not so sure. Gonzaga has held 11 of its last 12 opponents below 42%. Only three teams shot better than 40% during that span. I expect the most efficient defense to assert itself again here and triumph over the UNC offense. Despite the non-cover Saturday, Gonzaga is still 23-10 ATS this year. Tonight will mark the first time all season that they have not been favored. I would have them favored here. Yes, much of the focus here will be on UNC atoning for LY's Champ Game loss to Villanova. But this is Gonzaga's year. They have been the best team in the nation virtually the entire year. They will show that tonight and win the school's first ever Championship. Roy Williams and company will have to settle for being bridesmaids a second year in a row. 10* Gonzaga | |||||||
04-03-17 | Braves +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
8* Run Line Atlanta (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Braves +1.5. Not much is being expected from Atlanta last year despite the fact they showed rather dramatic improvement in the second half last year. Once on a pace to lose 100 games, the Braves got their act together late by going 34-27 over the final 61 games, which was actually the third best record in the National League over that time! They closed the season on a 12-2 run. Now perhaps you might make the case that's a mirage, but cluster luck suggests this was an unlucky team in 2016. Better run sequencing and a better everyday lineup should lead to an increase in wins for 2017. I'm not sure if there was a pitcher in all of MLB last year to have more hard luck than Julio Teheran. Atlanta's de facto ace wound up w/ a 10-20 team start record despite a 3.21 ERA and 1.053 WHIP. I expect major improvement for him this year in terms of the won-loss record. Teheran has actually always fared well against the Mets throughout his career, turning in a 7-3 record and 2.36 ERA. Here's something else that may surprise you: the Braves actually posted a winning head to head record vs. the Mets last season! Noah Syndergaard of the Mets is a pitcher that needs no introduction, but he got hammered in his final appearance vs. the Braves last year, giving up five runs in just 3 2/3 IP. Just like last year, it figures to be the Mets battling the Nationals for NL East supremacy, but don't be surprised to find Atlanta finishing a solid third. I see the road team doing no worse than a one run loss here. Predictably, the public is "all over" New York here and that's created a situation where there's now substantial value on the run line. The Braves were 6th in net units earned at the betting window last night, right behind the Cubs! That's largely owed to the +7.3 mark vs. these Mets. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5) | |||||||
04-02-17 | Hornets +5.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-101 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (3:05 ET): Here we have a classic case of a team that's better than its record taking on a team that is not as good as its record. Charlotte would be the former, OKC would be the latter. Here's the eye-opener. The Hornets are six games below .500 and the Thunder are 11 games over .500. Despite that discrepancy, however, they have identical YTD point differentials! That makes this line somewhat inflated, IMO. Charlotte was a nice win for me Friday night by downing Denver. Meanwhile, I won that same night going against OKC as they blew a huge lead at home against San Antonio. That one will sting. Take the points. The Hornets actually rank higher in offensive efficiency. I keep harping on this, but the Thunder have seen their offensive efficiency nosedive this year despite Russell Westbrook's individual exploits. They are 22nd in the league in assists. They clearly miss Kevin Durant. They were held below 100 pts (2nd time in 3 games) by the Spurs. Charlotte comes in averaging 113 PPG its last five games and has hit at least 105 in seven straight. I should point out that the Hornets have already beaten the Thunder once this year. It was 123-112, in Charlotte, back in January. Key for the Hornets was getting to the FT line 49 times. Two games out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference, Charlotte can't afford to lose many games the rest of the way. Thus, taking points seems like a natural move here. I'd actually rank them as the better team here. Overall, they've won six of eight. 8* Charlotte | |||||||
04-01-17 | Kings +11.5 v. Wolves | Top | 123-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (8:05 ET): This is the second of a back to back for the Kings, who lost last night 117-89 in New Orleans. Predictably, they've become undervalued here as a result. Truth be told, this team's season ended for all intents and purposes at the All-Star when they traded DeMarcus Cousins. They've won only five games since the Break, but interestingly the last time was when they were playing w/o rest. Granted that was at home, but the opponent was a good Memphis team. Tonight, they're in Minnesota, who is better than their record but probably should never be favored in this price range. Take the points. The T'wolves had lost six in a row (also 0-6 ATS) before beating Indiana (by one) and the Lakers. I've made the case many times before that this is a team whose record should be much closer to .500 (their point differential is near 0). However, this price range really doesn't fit them. Sure they did just cover as DD faves against the Lakers Thursday. Off a SU win, they are only 11-18 ATS this year. As a favorite, they are only 13-19 ATS. Off a double digit win, they are just 5-12 SU. Bottom line is that this is a team I simply would not favor by double digits in consecutive contests. The Kings shot below 40% from the field last night, so they should probably improve in that department. I just can't see them getting blown out for a third straight game. This is a clear case of "buying low" on a team. They are 9-5 ATS after allowing 115 points in the last game. The offense almost HAS to improve after four straight sub-100 pt efforts. They've averaged just 92 PPG the L5 games, which is well above their season-long average of 102.1 PPG. If they can get to that season average, then they should be in good shape here. The T'wolve let opponents shoot above 47% from the field. They also give up nearly 106 PPG. Look for the road team to stay within a generous number. 8* Sacramento | |||||||
04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 101 h 44 m | Show |
10* Gonzaga (6:09 ET): Just to show how unlikely a run its has been for South Carolina getting to the Final Four (1st appearance in school history), note that they have been an underdog in all four games in this Tournament. Yes, they were even a slight dog as the higher seed vs. Marquette. Three times they have trailed going into halftime. Sunday, in the Elite 8 against Florida, they faced a seven-point deficit at the break, but were able to overcome that by holding the Gators to 0 for 14 from three-point range after half. Gonzaga also is making its first Final Four appearance in school history, but in their case the trip is long overdue. This has been one of the nation's most successful programs over the last 17 years. A top seed, the Bulldogs are now 23-9 ATS this season. They have been favored in every game. I'll lay the points here as South Carolina's unlikely run ends. Gonzaga had no problem w/ 11-seed Xavier in the Elite 8, winning that matchup 83-59 as 8.5-point chalk. I laid the points there as well. Something that continues to get overlooked is the fact that the Zags are #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. They held Xavier to just 35.5% shooting. That was the 8th time in the L11 games where they held the opposition below 37% shooting. So, with all the talk likely to be about South Carolina's defense, note Gonzaga's is better. Northwestern is the only tournament opponent of Gonzaga's to score more than 60 points thus far. This is just the fourth team in the last 20 seasons to enter a Final Four w/ a scoring differential better than +20 PPG. While South Carolina is #2 nationally in defensive efficiency, they are outside the top 100 offensively. For the sake of comparison, Gonzaga is 14th in offensive efficiency. It's been rather shocking to see South Carolina score 70 or more in every Tournament game so far, but here is where I expect their offense to begin to struggle. In the halfcourt, Gonzaga's defense is allowing only .69 points per possession, an astounding number. They've allowed more than 65 points just four times in the L22 games. The 'Zags depth should allow them to avoid "wearing down" in the second half, something we've seen from previous South Carolina opponents. Also, Gonzaga doesn't turn the ball over much and that's an area that the Gamecocks have really benefited by forcing 17 TO's per game. South Carolina also is - by far - the weakest of the four remaining teams from behind the arc. For the year, they are connecting on just 33.3% of their three-point attempts. Gonzaga holds its opponents below 30% while hitting 37.8% itself. I think this line is off here far more than it was for the Zags game against Xavier. 10* Gonzaga | |||||||
03-31-17 | Spurs -2 v. Thunder | Top | 100-95 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:05 ET): The Spurs figure to be in an ornery mood here after blowing a 22-pt lead and losing to Golden State their last time out. I was on the Warriors in that game, so that result was "A-ok" by me and now I can use it again to my advantage. The Spurs are 13-3 SU this year when off a SU loss and outscoring foes by 12.7 points per game in that situation. The opponent tonight is a somewhat overrated OKC side that again benefited from a virtuoso Russell Westbrook its last time out. Westbrook went 57-13-11 in a 114-106 win over Orlando that required overtime. Not only did it take OT to outlast the Magic though; the Thunder actually trailed by as many as 22 pts in the second half! I'll lay the short number with the road team here. The come from behind effort Wednesday was the largest in team history for the Thunder. Again, trailing Orlando by 22 is not a "good luck." Though 12 games above .500, I can make a pretty compelling case that OKC is a pretty mediocre team. In terms of points scored vs. allowed per 100 possessions, they're basically dead even. They have been a good home team, but the defensive numbers (106.1 PPG allowed) still concern me. So too does the offensive efficiency. Aside from Westbrook's individual exploits, this has not been a great offensive team this year. They are just 16th in offensive efficiency. San Antonio is 1st in defensive efficiency in the league and is the only team besides Utah to be giving up fewer than 100 PPG. In addition to the usual strong bounce back effort that we see from this group, they are 28-8 SU on the road. It's rare that they are favored by so little as well. Before losing to Golden State, they'd won five in a row, including the destruction of Cleveland on Monday. Underrated is a Spurs offensive which is top six in the league in efficiency. They are also 19-7 ATS This year vs. teams that average at least 106 PPG. Meanwhile, the Thunder are just 5-10 ATS their last 15 games vs. teams averaging that many points per game. 8* San Antonio | |||||||
03-31-17 | Nuggets v. Hornets -2 | Top | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Of the two teams in question here, Denver has the far better shot at reaching the playoffs. They are 1.5 games back of Portland, the current 8-seed out West. A crippling loss to the Blazers Tuesday really hurt, however, and was their second loss in a row. Meanwhile, Charlotte is seven games below .500 and three games back of the final playoff spot in the East. But their statistical profile is actually superior that of Denver. The Hornets are both outscoring teams over the course of the season as well on a per possession basis. They are off a much needed outright win in Toronto two nights ago and I believe will keep the momentum going here. Lay the short number. Overall, Charlotte is 5-2 SU and ATS their last seven games. Offensively, they appear to be peaking w/ a scoring average of more than 110 points over the L5 games. At home this year, they average 106.2 PPG. Therefore, they should take advantage of a defense which is among the very worst in the league. Denver is 29th. That's ahead of only the Lakers. If you look back at recent results, certainly one could make the case that Denver's defense is costing them big time. Over the L5 games, they've given up an average of over 118 PPG. Denver isn't a particularly good road team. They're just 15-21 SU overall. Several players are listed as questionable for this game - Will Barton, Darrell Arthur and Mason Plumlee - and any of their absences would obviously hurt. Then there is the fact that Charlotte has already beaten Denver this year, 112-102 in Denver, earlier this month. That game saw prolific Hornets shooting from three-point range and given the Nuggets allow an ever higher percentage from behind the arc on the road, I can see that being the difference again. 10* Charlotte | |||||||
03-30-17 | Cavs v. Bulls +5.5 | Top | 93-99 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
03-29-17 | Warriors +5 v. Spurs | Top | 110-98 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
10* Golden State (9:35 ET): The Warriors shouldn't have been underdogs last night (I played them and they won in Houston) nor should they be a dog tonight. Yes, I'm well aware that this is the second game of a back to back and the opponent is San Antonio. I have this game essentially as a Pick 'em, so naturally taking points is the way to go. The only time all season, previous to last night, that the Dubs were getting points came here in San Antonio on 3.11. But that was w/ them resting all their stars. Being that their record vs. the Spurs is 0-2 SU/ATS this season (lost by 29 to them at home on Opening NIght), I'd say this game will be treated w/ the utmost importance by the defending Western Conference Champs. After all, they only lead the Spurs by 1.5 games in the standings. Teams playing in the second game of a back to back are often undervalued and that's what we have going on here. With last night's 113-106 win in Houston, the Warriors joined the Jordan-era Bulls as the only two teams in league history to win 200 regular season games over a three-year span. It goes w/o saying that's very impressive. I said it last night and I'll say it again here. This was the top team in the league each of the L2 years w/o Kevin Durant, so his absence doesn't bother me all that much. Last night, it was the Dubs' defense that shined, holding high-powered Houston to a season-low five three-pointers made. They led by as many as 22 in the second quarter and keep in mind Draymond Green didn't have a particularly good game. While last night was all about the defensive advantage over the Rockets (teams are 1-2 in offensive efficiency), tonight I'll tout the Warriors' offensive edge in a battle of the two most efficient defenses. While the respective defensive efficiencies are virtually dead even here, GSW is a clear 1st in the league on the offensive end. San Antonio is sixth. The Warriors are 11-4 SU this season when playing w/o rest, so the situation shouldn't bother them. As for San Antonio, they are off a dominant showing Monday vs. Cleveland and looking for a sixth straight win. I laid the points w/ Greg Popovich's team Monday, but that was the first time they won a game by double digits since beating the depleted Warriors roster three weeks ago. Keep in mind that Golden State has now won eight straight and six of those have been by double digits. Really impressive is that the Warriors are holding opponents to a "Spurs-like" average of 96.4 points the L5 games. Look for them to dictate the pace and cover the spread. 10* Golden State | |||||||
03-29-17 | Bucks +8 v. Celtics | Top | 103-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): I thought this number was too high even before the Bucks went into Charlotte and whipped the Hornets last night, 118-108 as four-point dogs. Therefore, I'm clearly going to back them here as this is an inflated number due to the fact they're in the second game of a back to back. Often times, NBA teams are undervalued in this spot (especially on the road) and that's precisely what we have going on here. Even through the "bad times," I've been pretty consistent in preaching that this Milwaukee team is better than its record shows. Sure enough, they've won 12 of 15 here in March. Meanwhile, Boston is now the top seed in the East (Cleveland fading!), so it's probably a good time to fade them. Take the points. The Celtics have been pretty hot in their own right, winning four in a row and seven of their last eight. But backing up the notion that it's likely a good time to "sell high" on them is the fact they are 2-13 ATS this season when off three or more consecutive SU wins. Sure enough, they failed to cover Sunday vs. Miami, winning only 112-108 as six-point home chalk. I've got Milwaukee rated as a better team than Miami, so again, this line looks off to me. The last four games for Boston have all come here at home and they've hardly been winning by dominant margins. Their biggest win came against Phoenix and that was by only 10 pts. That happened to be the game where Devin Booker went for 70 by himself. Boston's defense is not as good as it's been in past years as they allow over 105 PPG. Also, this season has seen the team go just 4-7 SU and 3-8 ATS when playing w/ exactly two days rest. Aside from the obvious top four in the Eastern Conference, I like this Milwaukee team the most. They shot 62.2% from the floor last night and dominated Charlotte. They had 72 points by halftime and led by 18 going into the fourth quarter. That's despite forcing only FOUR turnovers the entire game and getting outscored 15-2 in transition. I wouldn't be too afraid of any kind of letdown here given the Bucks are 10-3 SU and 9-4 ATS when coming off a SU win as a dog. In the only prior meeting this season, Milwaukee was the favorite, though at home and they lost. But given that Boston is only outscoring foes by two points more per 100 possessions than is Milwaukee, my view is that this line is simply too high. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
03-28-17 | Warriors +1.5 v. Rockets | Top | 113-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
8* Golden State (8:05 ET): It does appear as if some early sharp money showed up on the Rockets here. I can only assume that has something to do w/ the fact that the Warriors are playing in San Antonio tomorrow night. But I'm of the opinion that the Dubs should NOT be an underdog here. Really, they shouldn't ever be an underdog. After some early struggles w/o Kevin Durant, clearly this team has gotten things going. They've won seven games in a row, the last six all coming by double digit margins. I've stressed this before and I'll reiterate it again here: this was the top team in the league each of the L2 years w/o Durant and there's no reason to expect they can't be again. They were 5.5-pt favorites in January's visit to Houston (won 125-108) and I don't buy that Durant's absence should have that significant an impact on the pointspread. Over the L3 seasons, these teams have played 19 times. Golden State has won 16 of those games. It's actually not the 1st time they will have been a dog. On New Year's Eve 2015, they were 3.5-pt dogs here in Houston and won 114-110. Not only did they not have Durant in that last game, they were w/o Steph Curry as well. Certainly, the Rockets are improved this season. But while they're almost at the Warriors' level offensively (teams are 1-2 in efficiency), it's not even close at the other end of the floor. Always underrated is the fact that the Warriors consistently rank near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. This year, they're second, just slightly behind the Spurs. Houston is tied for 16th. Over the L5 games, the Rockets have given up an average of 117.8 points per game. Golden State has allowed an average of just 93.6. The Warriors have only been a dog in one other game this year. It was 17 days ago when they rested all their key players in San Antonio. So this will be the first time all year you don't have to lay points w/ them and get Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green all in the lineup. On the other side, Houston's James Harden injured his wrist in Sunday's win over OKC. He's listed as probable, but the problem is that the Rockets are far more dependent on Harden that the Warriors are on any one player. There is simply no way Houston matches its shooting from Sunday when it went 63.3% from the floor (2nd highest percentage by any team this season) including 20 of 39 from three-point range. For a point of reference, they were just 7 of 35 from behind the arc the last time they faced the Warriors. 8* Golden State | |||||||
03-27-17 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Flames | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
10* Puck Line Colorado (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Avalanche +1.5. It's not often that you can get the +1.5 at this price. Then again, it's not often that there's a team as bad as Colorado has been this season. By every objective metric, the Avs are the worst team in the league. They have the fewest points (43), scored the fewest goals (145) and given up the most goals (249). Their goal differential of -104 is twice as bad as every other team in the league besides Arizona. But there have obviously been a number of one-goal losses along the way and it's somewhat unprecedented to find Calgary in this price range. I feel the Avs do no worse than a one-goal loss tonight. The Flames have gotten hot down the stretch, winning 13 of their last 16 games. But despite that, they're still only fourth in the Pacific and have a goal differential of just +5 on the year. They are off an overtime win Saturday in St. Louis that strengthened their hold on the top Wild Card spot. With two big games looming against division foes San Jose and Los Angeles later in the week, it will be easy to overlook this game. This team has had the good fortune of going 13-4 SU in games that go past regulation this season. Remember just a tie at the end of regulation here and this play is a winner! Overall, the Flames are 20-8 SU in games decided by one goal this season. While that may not be an extraordinary percentage of games decided by that margin, it's still more than a third of their total games and their good fortune in them is due to eventually swing the other way. How about here? The Avs have lost five straight and every loss has been by at least two goals. They've given up four or more in all five games. As bad as that all sounds, I still believe they have the proverbial "puncher's chance" tonight. Calgary is a pretty mediocre team to be in this price range and is only averaging 27.0 shots per game its last five contests. After just playing three road games in five days, might they be running on "empty" here? Again, this will be the Flames' final non-division game of the regular season and I smell "lookahead spot." 10* Puck Line Colorado (+1.5) | |||||||
03-27-17 | Cavs v. Spurs -4.5 | Top | 74-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:05 ET): Cleveland is in big trouble right now. Not just because they enter the day now tied w/ Boston for 1st place in the Eastern Conference (Celtics won yday). Their defense has just been awful of late and as a result their efficiency rating at that end of the floor has plummeted to 23rd, which would be the lowest of ANY playoff team except Denver, who will be mere first round fodder for Golden State. Forget about winning a potential rubber match with the Warriors in the NBA Finals, the defending NBA Champs may not even get out of the East! After another terrible defensive effort against the Wizards Saturday at home (lost 127-115), tonight brings a much tougher test as LeBron and company visit the Alamo to play the Spurs. Fade them. San Antonio has no such issues defensively. In fact, they are #1 in the league in defensive efficiency. That's a huge edge over the Cavs here as the offensive rating are somewhat similar (Cavs 3rd, Spurs 6th). While it's true the Spurs haven't won a game by double digits since beating the Warriors (who were resting everyone) two weeks ago, here they are finally not required to do so. This is probably one of the shorter spreads San Antonio will see at home all year, if not the shortest. Cleveland is just 2-9 SU as an underdog, 3-8 ATS. Sure, the majority of those games have come w/ LeBron resting, but the fact remains that this number is way too low. Cleveland has let four of its last five opponents shoot better than 50% from the floor and the Wizards finished at almost 60%! Look for the efficient Spurs to exploit that leaky defense. Particularly concerning for the Cavs is that they trailed both Denver and Washington most of the way and the deficit was often double digits. San Antonio is at a whole different level compared to those two teams. They too are in a battle for the top spot in their conference as they currently trail Golden State by only two games. The Spurs already beat the Cavs this year, in Cleveland, despite not having either Tony Parker or Pau Gasol in the linup. Kawhi Leonard scored 41 pts and given the Cavs' defensive ineptitude, could be in line for another big effort tonight. Cleveland gives up 109.9 PPG on the road while San ANtonio allows only 97.7 at home. 8* San Antonio | |||||||
03-27-17 | Magic v. Raptors -9 | Top | 112-131 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:35 ET): If you're a regular follower of mine, much of the case I'm going to make for the Raptors here will be "old hat." But it bears repeating how undervalued this team has become in the wake of the Kyle Lowry injury. It is them, not Cleveland or Boston, that sports the Eastern Conference's top net efficiency rating and point differential. Those numbers have only continued to improve in the wake of a current five-game win streak, which has seen them prevail by double digits four times. I had them Saturday night in Dallas when they were badly mispriced (+1) and won 94-86. Tonight finds them laying the biggest number since the Lowry injury, but it's still not nearly enough against the lowly Magic, a team which rates as the third worst in the entire league. Orlando has actually won three of its previous four games, including a 115-87 decision at Detroit on Friday. But that only serves to keep the number down. The Magic's other two wins came against Phoenix and Philadelphia, both fellow bottom five teams. Shockingly, they did beat Toronto twice in a week back around the Super Bowl. One win came here "North of the Border" as 11-pt dogs. The other was as a 5.5-pt home dog. But tonight should be all about the Raptors' gaining revenge. It starts w/ the fact that Orlando is only 2-14 SU this season off a SU win as a dog. They are also 0-9 SU after scoring 115+ points the previous game. They shot 51.6% from the floor against the Pistons, something that is unlikely to be repeated given that they rank 29th in offenseive efficiency. In six of their previous eight games, they shot 43.7% or worse. Defense has been a big reason for the Magic winning three of their last four games. Detroit shot just 35.4% on Friday while Philadelphia and Phoenix also both had bad shooting nights. The 76ers are the only team in the league w/ a lower offensive efficiency rating than Orlando and Detroit is the only team worse in true shooting percentage. Meanwhile, Toronto is a top five team in the league in offensive efficiency and averages 110.8 PPG at home. Even w/o Lowry, there are plenty of options here, most notably DeMar DeRozan. Defensively, the Raptors have held four opponents to 91 pts or less during the current win streak. This should be a blowout, which is why I'm laying the points! 10* Toronto | |||||||
03-26-17 | Pelicans +5.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 115-90 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Pre-DeMarcus Cousins, I could see this line being valid. But the Pelicans seem to have now integrated "Boogie" into the lineup and are a lot better team now, even though they did lose to Houston Friday. Previously, they'd won three straight and five of six. Tonight's game may very well be "for the season" as they are at eighth place Denver. With 10 games to play, they are five back of the Nuggets. A loss here and the Pelicans can probably kiss their playoff chances goodbye. I'll concede that Denver has been hot of late (6-2 SU L8 games, 7-1 ATS), but it's probably about time for them to cool off a bit. Defensively, they are not a good team at all and to me, that makes them unappealing in the role of favorite. Take the points. Yes, I'm well aware that Cousins is listed as questionable for tonight due to an ankle injury. But given the stakes, I'd be surprised if he didn't play. If he doesn't, I'm actually okay w/ that too. The team has won both games he's missed since coming over from Sacramento, by margins of 16 pts or greater. One of those wins came against the Rockets. With Cousins in the lineup, the Pelicans lost to the Rockets Friday, but note it was actually a one-point game going into the fourth quarter and they did a pretty good job defensively. This will be the first meeting w/ Denver since the season opener, a game the Pelicans lost by five despite 50 pts and 15 rebounds from Anthony Davis. There's a chance Denver could be w/o its leading scorer, Danilo Gallinari, as well. So the absences could end up "cancelling each other out" here. I noted earlier that the Nuggets are not good defensively. To illustrate that point, they rank 29th in efficiency, which places them right between the Nets and Lakers. They are actually closer to last place than they are 28th! Their last three opponents have all shot at least 50% from the field. It's tough to keep winning when you're allowing that kind of shooting. With a big five-game road trip looming, I wouldn't be shocked if Denver gets caught "peeking ahead" and overlooks tonight's game a bit. That won't be the case for New Orleans, who again faces a must win. 8* New Orleans | |||||||
03-26-17 | South Carolina v. Florida -3 | Top | 77-70 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
10* Florida (2:20 ET): This line is several points lower than it ought to be and I'm taking full advantage. It always stinks not to be able to cash a winning ticket, but nevertheless I still came away impressed w/ Florida did Friday night. The Gators won what was the "game of the Tournament" thus far, beating Wisconsin 84-83 in overtime on a miraculous three-point shot at the buzzer. How ironic that Wisconsin sent the game to OT on a similar shot. Though it was not a cover for me (had UF -2), being able to win after such a dominant peformance the previous round is pretty impressive. I still put a ton of stock into the Gators' 65-39 dismantling of Virginia in the second round. Meanwhile, I do not believe South Carolina will be able to respond as well from its best Tourney performance to date, a 70-50 beatdown of Baylor in the Sweet 16. Lay the short number here. Defensive efficiency is so important this time of year and in that department there is no real edge in this matchup. South Carolina may have been considered a "long shot" to make the Tournament, but they rank 3rd nationally in defensive efficiency, one spot ahead of Florida. It was the 70-50 win over Baylor on Friday that moved them slightly ahead. In that game, the Gamecocks held their opponents to just 30% shooting for the game. That's after holding Duke to 38% in the second half in a stunning second round upset. But Florida is no slouch in this department as they held Virginia to 29.6% shooting. Wisconsin shot 50%, but again, that makes winning all the more impressive for the Gators. But the real key here is a massive gap on the offensive end. Florida ranks 25th in offensive efficiency while South Carolina is 115th, easily the worst among the Elite 8 (no one else lower than 27th). These teams being SEC rivals, obviously we have regular seasons results to analyze. This will be a rubber match w/ each team having won on its home floor. The Gamecocks won 57-53 in Columbia due Florida going an unfathomable 0 for 17 from three-point range. In Gainesville, the Gators were 9 of 19 from behind the arc and won 81-66. The two games have seen South Carolina only shoot 37 of 107 from the floor (including 7 of 27 from three-point range). Often, I might call for those numbers to improve, but not here. Florida holds its opponents to just 30% shooting from three-point range for the year. The Gators are also 25-3 SU when favored this season, going 19-8-1 ATS. 10* Florida | |||||||
03-25-17 | Wolves +7 v. Blazers | Top | 100-112 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (10:05 ET): Though Portland is the one fighting for a playoff berth (and was a playoff team LY as well), I think most objective measures would consider the T'wolves to be the better overall team here. Thus, a spread this high is certainly not warranted, not even w/ Minny being in the second game of a back to back. Sure, last night was the latest in a long line of frustrating setbacks for the young T'wolves, not to mention possibly the most embarrassing one yet. They fell, in overtime, to the Lakers by a score of 130-119. It was a game they led by 15 in the third quarter. Blowing leads, many of them the double digit variety, has been far too common for Minnesota this year, but getting points tonight I feel comfortable giving them my endorsement. Take the points. Even after five consecutive SU losses, a streak which has also seen them go 0-5 ATS, the T'wolves are basically dead even with their opponents in terms of scoring over the course of the year. This despite actually being 15 games below .500 entering tonight's game. Clearly, it's been a case of a young team being rather "unlucky" as there's plenty of talent on hand here. Andrew Wiggins scored 36 points last night and Karl Anthony Towns is a top 10 player in this league. They were up by eight last night w/ just over two minutes to go in regulation! When Zach Lavine and Nikola Pekovic return next season (both OFY) plus another lottery pick is in the fold, this will be a lock to make my "Most Improved" list. Teams are often undervalued in the second game of a B2B and sure enough the T'wolves are 7-4 ATS in that role this season. Portland was a pleasant surprise LY, surviving the loss of four starters from the previous season, one an All-Star in LaMarcus Aldridge. But after three consecutive playoff appearance (twice made the Conf Semis), this year finds them fighting for their postseason lives. Entering tonight, they still trail Denver by 1.5 games for the 8th and final spot in the West. They have been outscored by a larger margin that Minnesota has over the course of the year and the defense has generally been awful (24th in efficiency). Not to mention, this is one of the worst ATS teams in the league at 31-40 (ahead of only Orland). They did just beat the Knicks, who were in the second game of a B2B, Thursday. But Minnesota is a far more formidable opponent. The underdog has won outright in both prior meetings between these teams this season. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
03-25-17 | Oregon +6.5 v. Kansas | Top | 74-60 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
10* Oregon (8:49 ET): Kansas seems to be the "toast of the town," both literally and figuratively right now. Playing in Kansas City, they are heavy favorite to advance to the Final Four as the top seed in their region. They may want to consider applying for membership in the Big 10 after thrashing both Michigan State and Purdue in their last two games, winning by a combined 52 points. But their Elite 8 opponent, Oregon, just happened to beat the Big 10's hottest team (Michigan) themselves. The Ducks have been able to persevere despite losing big man Chris Boucher to a season-ending ACL injury before the Tournament. It's rare to find them getting this many points (in fact, this will easily be the most they've gotten in any game this season), so I'll leap at the opportunity. Take the points. The Ducks have been an underdog in only three games all season, twice to UCLA and in an early season game at Baylor. That's a pair of Sweet 16 teams. Kansas is better than both, so it's not shocking to find the Jayhawks favored by more, but I still believe the line is inflated based off KU's last two results. Note that it was only a five-point game vs. Michigan State at the half and the margin stayed the same halfway through the second. Closing the game on a 30-15 run (including 21-6 over the final 7 minutes) certainly skewed perception. Then against Purdue, Bill Self's team trailed most of the first half. Again though, it was a dominant second half performance. I simply refuse to believe the Jayhawks can continue shooting at the current rate (47% on 3's, 60% on 2's!) and I've got to again point out the team has a fortunate 12-3 SU record in games decided by single digits. Oregon has shot the ball quite well themselves in this Tournament and has an offense capable of matching Kansas. The Ducks turned the ball over just FIVE times against Michigan. Given the Jayhawks have been making a "killing" in transition, if Oregon can take care of the basketball again, they should be in good shape. They are after all 11-3 ATS this season vs. teams averaging 77 points or more. And remember they were favored in the bulk of those contests. Defensively, these teams are basically even w/ Kansas 23rd in efficiency and Oregon 24th. The Ducks actually own the better scoring differential, however, at +13.5 compared to "just" +12.1 for KU. All things considered, I would have this spread several points lower and it's probably a good time to fade Kansas coming off a "peak" performance. 10* Oregon | |||||||
03-25-17 | Raptors +1 v. Mavs | Top | 94-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* Toronto (8:35 ET): I've been pretty clear of late that I feel the Raptors have become severely undervalued in the wake of the Kyle Lowry injury. The numbers continue to back me up. Not only do they have the best net efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference, but their YTD point differential has now surpassed Cleveland. Thursday's 101-84 rout of Miami (on the road!) was really impressive, especially when you consider the Heat were 24-5 ATS their previous 29 games. Considering all that you've just read, I'd hope you'd join me in wondering how in the world Toronto would be a underdog, even so slight, to a team like Dallas. The Mavs did beat the Clippers here at home Thursday night, but had dropped four of six previous to that. I'm on the road team here. Thursday's win in Miami made it four straight for the Raptors. Three of those wins have been by double digits w/ the only exception coming against Chicago, who (for whatever reason) always seems to give them trouble. Another recent lopsided win for them came at the expense of tonight' opponent. North of the Border, they crushed Dallas 100-78 on 3.13, doing so as 4.5-pt home chalk. Shockingly, there has been to little to no adjustment by the oddsmakers for the rematch. Granted, they have to be careful about putting too much stock into just one result, but it's pretty clear to me who the better team is here. Note after initially falling behind the Heat by as many as 14 in the fourth quarter, the Raptors outscored them 31 the rest of the way. Given what Miami has done lately, that's pretty eye-opening. In three of the past four games, the Raptors have held their opponent to 91 pts or less. The game vs. Chicago went to overtime remember. There's a pretty massive discrepancy at the offensive end of the floor between these two teams. Toronto is 5th in the league in offensive efficiency and averages 107.1 points per game. Dallas is just 22nd in efficiency and is the ONLY team in the league that does not average 100 PPG. It was just eight days ago that the Mavericks lost by 42 in Philadelphia. I faded them earlier in the week as they lost by 25 here at home to Golden State. Though it seemingly worked against the Clippers two nights ago, Mavs HC Rick Carlisle is going with a younger and more unproven starting lineup right now. That's going to result in some inconsistency. The Raptors are the better team and have far more to play for here. 10* Toronto | |||||||
03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga -8 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
8* Gonzaga (6:05 ET): Xavier has clearly represented a "buy low" situation thus far in the Tournament as they've won all three of their games as an underdog (I was on them all three times!). Most forget that the Musketeers were actually considered a Top 10 in the country early in the season. Injuries, the most notable being the season-ender for Edmond Sumner (knee) threatened to derail the campaign though. A six-game losing skid last month had their NCAA Tourney hopes on "life-support," but Chris Mack's team then responded by winning six of seven while going a perfect 7-0 ATS at the betting window. However, here is where the Cinderella story ends and I jump off the bandwagon. Top seed Gonzaga has survived some close calls thus far, but I believe is primed for their best showing of the Tournament tonight. Lay the points. I keep stressing teams' defensive efficiency for a reason. It is typically a great predictor of future success. Even an Elite 8 "longshot" like South Carolina ranks 3rd nationally at that end of the floor. Xavier, however, is 67th. That's easily the lowest ranking of the remaining eight teams. In fact, no one else is lower than 24th! Gonzaga is 1st, which is something that I bet most don't know. They just held West Virginia to an ugly 26.7% shooting for the game in the Sweet 16. That's really impressive even by the Zags' lofty standard. Incredibly, only one of their previous nine opponents has shot better than 41.5% from the floor (BYU, who handed them their one loss). Seven times during that stretch, Mark Few's team has held the opponent below 37% shooting. In the Tournament, they've held teams to 37% shooting on two-point attempts. This is really impressive! Xavier comes in having shot at least 50% from the floor in all three Tournament games, so clearly something will have to give here. I'm banking on it being the Musketeers' offense obviously. A key reason that I've played Xavier in all three games thus far is that I've felt all of their opponents were overrated in terms of seed. That ceases to be the case here. Another huge key has been Xavier's Tourney opponents shooting only 24% from three-point range despite a rather high volume of attempts. That seems unsustainable. Gonzaga has shot just 29% themselves from behind the arc, but don't let that fool you into thinking this is a great matchup for the underdog. Rather, I believe we'll see some regression to the mean on both sides of that equation. Look for the Zags to make their shots and advance to the school's first ever Final Four in convincing fashion. 8* Gonzaga | |||||||
03-24-17 | Wisconsin v. Florida -2 | Top | 83-84 | Loss | -107 | 84 h 36 m | Show |
8* Florida (9:55 ET): The East region has been thrown into total upheaval with the early exits of the top two seeds, Villanova and Duke. Furthermore, Virginia was considered the "darkhorse" third option and they're gone too. To me, that leaves the team that eliminated the Hoos, Florida, as the new favorite. While all the talk will be about what Wisconsin did to 'Nova, Florida's massive beatdown of Virginia may have been the most impressive win of the entire Tournament to date. They absolutely bludgeoned UVA, 65-39, which I assure you is not a misprint. Yet, they're only a small fave for this Sweet 16 matchup and don't seem to be getting the majority of public support. I don't understand that all and will gladly lay the short number here. Wisconsin was probably underseeded, something that was quite unfortunate if you're Villanova. The Badgers did have a late season three-game skid including an outright loss in Madison (as 11.5-pt faves) to Iowa. But since the regular season finale, they've turned things around. Their only loss in the L6 games was in the Big 10 Tournament Final to Michigan. The final margin over Va Tech in Rd 1 may have been 10 pts, but that was their largest lead of what was a basically a two possession game the whole way. The Badgers also benefited there from a school record eight three-pointers by Bronson Koenig. Then came the upset of 'Nova. Yes, the Badgers led for a large percentage of that game, but they were also down 57-50 w/ just over five minutes remaining. They very likely will not be as fortunate to shoot as well here as they did vs. Nova (53.1%!) considering the Gators rank third nationally in defensive efficiency. I know Wisconsin "has experience," but they still turned the ball over too much and got into foul trouble the last game. There are a number of Sweet 16 teams that have been able to overcome key injuries. Count Florida among the list. They lost big man John Egbunu to a season-ending knee injury back in February. They proceeded to go just 3-3 SU their next six games, twice losing to Vanderbilt, but have had little problem in the first two rounds of this Tournament. I had them against East Tennessee State, which was a 15-point win. Then came the brutal beatdown of Virginia. The "impressiveness" of that victory cannot be understated. They held the Hoos below 30% shooting for the game, including 1 of 15 from three-point range. Will they be able to duplicate those numbers here? Unlikely. But if they even come remotely close, they'll advance w/ ease. Remember that Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Speedy guards Kasey Hill and Chris Chiozza broke down the vaunted Tony Bennett "Pack Line defense" like it was nothing. Even w/o Egbunu, the Gators have four players that can lead the team in scoring and both Devin Robinson and Justin Leon had double doubles (21 total rebounds) against UVA. 8* Florida | |||||||
03-24-17 | UCLA v. Kentucky +1 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 102 | 83 h 17 m | Show |
10* Kentucky (9:35 ET): Though I didn't expect it to be by much, I have to say that I'm pretty shocked Kentucky isn't favored here. They are after all - Kentucky - and the higher seed. If the line holds, or even goes up for some reason, then it will be just the second time this season that the Wildcats close as the dog. The first was admittedly not a pleasant experience as they lost at Florida by 22. But the Gators may very well end up being a Final Four team. UCLA is a group that I tabbed as overrated long ago. Sure, the Bruins proved me wrong by covering against Cincinnati, but they actually trailed at the half in that game. Their struggle to put away Kent State in the first round also should be a red flag. Simply put, the Bruins 77th place ranking in defensive efficiency (lowest among 16 remaining teams) is bound to eventually catch up with them and I think Friday is the time and place. As was expected, UK got a scare in Round 2 from a severely underseeded Wichita State team. I took the points w/ the Shockers (and covered!), but that play wasn't due to a lack of respect for what Coach Cal's team is capable of doing. Rather, I respected WSU that much. UK might be the youngest team left in the field, but they now also boast the longest active win streak in the country at 13 games. They've been able to advance despite their best player Malik Monk not shooting all that well. Imagine if he turns it around. Unlike the matchup vs. Wichita State, UK has a significant edge on the defensive end here as they rank 8th in efficiency. This is also a revenge spot for a five-point loss in Lexington back in December. That day, UCLA was able to score 97 points (shot 53.0%) in an outright upset as 10.5-pt dogs. I do not see history repeating itself here and it sure seems as if there's been a massive overadjustment w/ the line. Kentucky has not lost a neutral site game all year (9-0 SU). As mentioned above, UCLA trailed Cincinnati at the break on Sunday night. It may not have been a significant deficit, but they certainly struggled against an athletic and long defense. Kentucky is both longer and more athletic than Cincinnati. Thus, I believe we're more likely to see something resembling the Bruins team we saw in the 1st Half vs. Cincy than the 2nd (when they scored 49). On the defensive end, there has been much discussion about an alleged "improvement" down the stretch by UCLA. I just don't see it. They gave up 80 pts to Kent State. Unlike the Bruins first two Tournament opponents, Kentucky has an offense capable of "keeping up." (they average 85.2 PPG). Look for the 2-seed to advance in this one. 10* Kentucky | |||||||
03-24-17 | Suns +15.5 v. Celtics | Top | 120-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (7:35 ET): Boston is now just one-game back of seemingly slumping Cleveland and all the talk obviously now centers around whether or not they can pass the defending champs for the top spot in the East. I actually think Toronto is a better overall team than Boston, for the record. But with the weight of expectations comes larger pointspreads and here we find the Celtics as big a favorite as they've been in any game all season. In fact, this will be just the third time they've been asked to lay double digits this season. They are 0-2 ATS previously with non-covers against Brooklyn (season opener!) and Philadelphia (January 6th). I understand that bettors will hardly be flocking to the window to bet Phoenix here, but let's take advantage of that fact and grab what looks to be a severely inflated number. Last night saw the Suns suffer the indignity of getting crushed by Brooklyn. They were actually five-point underdogs (against the Nets!) in the embarrassing 128-96 defeat. Clearly, this marked a low-point in another lost season. Incredibly, the starting lineup that was trotted out last night was not only the youngest in NBA history (avg 21 yrs, 14 days), but the average age of the starters was actually younger than seven of the eight teams that played last night in the NCAA Tournament! Given we know the veterans on this team aren't very good, this is probably a good idea over the long-term. In the short-term, the results haven't been good. Phoenix is 0-6 SU and ATS its last six games with the last three all coming by double digits on the road. As bleak a picture as I may have just painted, it wasn't that long ago that the Suns had gone 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS over a six-game stretch. Sunday in Detroit saw them actually lead by double digits before completely falling apart down the stretch and losing by 15. This will be the third straight game getting double digits. However, even by their standard, it's a huge number. The only times they've gotten 16 or more from the oddsmakers this year came against the Rockets and Warriors. Boston might be a good team, but they're a notch or two below those teams. I can't possibly make a case for the Suns to win outright here, but I'll call for the overconfident Celtics to overlook this game and fail to cover the spread. 10* Phoenix | |||||||
03-24-17 | Cavs v. Hornets +3 | Top | 112-105 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (7:05 ET): Cleveland is in trouble and LeBron James seems to know it. The defending World Champs have just been awful defensively this season as is evident by their 22nd place ranking in defensive efficiency. That would be the lowest ranking of any likely playoff team w/ the exception of Denver, who is a sub .500 team that is just hoping to be the 8-seed in the West. For the sake of comparison, last year's Cavs team ranked a respectable 10th in defensive efficiency. Speaking of the Nuggets, they just torched LeBron and company for 126 points Wednesday night. That dropped the team to 0-3 ATS on the current road trip. I know that James has essentially "owned" Charlotte throughout his brilliant career, but going West to East does Cleveland no favors here and the Hornets are a far better team than their WL record indicates. Take the points. Charlotte enters Friday 2.5 games back of Miami for the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Maybe they won't make the playoffs, but I'm already tabbing them as an excellent bounce back candidate for next season. Consider that despite being seven games below .500 currently, they've actually outscored their opponents and posted a positive net efficiency rating. If nothing else, they've been terribly unlucky w/ an 0-9 SU record in games decided by three points or less and 0-6 SU record in overtime! That's in stark contrast to last season when they were 5-0 SU in OT games. However, we're starting to see signs of potential late season turnaround as they come into tonight riding a three-game SU and ATS win streak. They have a winning record at home this year. The narrative here will be James' comments after the Denver loss as he called his teammates out. He should have as the Cavs were just horrific defensively, allowing 73 first half points and 70 points in the paint overall. They forced only six turnovers against 35 Denver assists. Every opponent on this trip has shot at least 50% from the floor against them. They are giving up 110.1 PPG on the road where they've been outscored for the year. Charlotte comes in averaging a healthy number (105.6 PPG at home). I realize that the Hornets are just 1-9 SU vs. Cleveland since James "came home" (0-3 SU this year) and 2-19 SU as dogs overall this season. But I rate this as a pick em game and Charlotte has proven itself to be a totally different team w/ Cody Zeller in the lineup. 8* Charlotte | |||||||
03-23-17 | Xavier +7.5 v. Arizona | Top | 73-71 | Win | 100 | 60 h 7 m | Show |
10* Xavier (10:05 ET): The Musketeers have treated me quite well so far in this Tournament. I've been on them in both games. First, they knocked off overrated Maryland 76-65 as a two-point dog. Then came one of the most impressive performances of the entire tournament as they whipped Florida State 91-66 as 7.5-pt dogs. That was their sixth consecutive cover as it's become pretty apparant this team was undervalued in the wake of the Edmond Sumner injury. But like Oregon w/o Chris Boucher, they are making "due." Sure, there was a six-game losing streak towards the end of the regular season, but they've clearly righted the ship. Arizona is a team that's also been covering of late (5-0-1 ATS L6), but I feel they're drastically overrated. Take the points. In the interest of full disclosure, I went against Arizona against St. Mary's. Though that play was ultimately unsuccessful (Wildcats won 69-60 as five-point chalk), note that they were NOT "in the money" most of the way. In fact, they got behind big early, trailing 24-14. But credit them for catching fire in the second half where they shot 59.1% from the floor. But such a come from behind effort cannot be counted on regularly. Granted, 'Zona is 5-2 SU in games decided by five points or less this season. But, defensively, I believe them to be the INFERIOR foe in this matchup. Yes, they held St. Mary's to only 60 points, but that has as much to do w/ the Gaels' slow tempo as anything else. Prior to that win, the Wildcats had allowd 75+ pts in five of six games. Meanwhile, Xavier has held five of its last six opponents to 65 pts or less. What the Musketeers did to Florida State last Saturday was really impressive. The Seminoles were the tallest team in the field, yet Xavier actually outrebounded them and was able to shoot 55% from the field. There was also a massive discrepancy from behind the arc as Xavier was 11 of 17 while FSU was only 4 of 21. That is unlikely to be repeated, but I don't think it has to be for the Musketeers to pull off yet another upset. Their zone really confused the 'Noles and I'd be shocked if we didn't see it again here. Also, Xavier did a great job at taking care of the basketball last game, turning it over just nine times. I don't have Arizona rated that much higher than FSU, so this line looks to be a real "steal." Arizona has shot 53.5% from the field its last five games. That's due to regress, right? 10* Xavier | |||||||
03-23-17 | Knicks +11.5 v. Blazers | Top | 95-110 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* New York (10:05 ET): The miserable Knicks may have come up just short again last night, but for a second straight time they at least covered the spread. It was a 108-101 loss at Utah, a good team that allows the fewest number of points per game in the league. Predictably, the Knicks are again catching a ton of points tonight in Portland. I get that this is the second game of a back to back (not to mention the 3rd road game in 4 nights), but are the Blazers really deserving of as much respect as the Jazz? I don't think so. Not w/ their 24th place ranking in defensive efficiency or the fact they just lost at home to Milwaukee. Overall, Portland has posted the second worst ATS record in the league, ahead of only Orlando. As lousy as the Knicks have been, they are actually top 10 at the betting window, largely due to situations such as this where they are getting so many points. The worst thing of all for Portland on Tuesday night is they wasted what was actually a rare strong effort on the defensive end. They held Milwaukee to just 93 points, yet still lost outright at home. They shot just 42.2% from the floor and had only 35 points by halftime. They trailed by as many as 15 in the second half and were a terrible 4 of 21 from three-point range. The offensive number are obviously likely to improve tonight, but at the same time, I expect the defensive numbers to regress. This team allows 109.7 PPG, which makes it very difficult to cover as a favorite of this magnitude. In fact, Portland has been outscored over the course of the season. They are only 17-15 SU at home. It's become apparent that the Knicks are deliberately tanking w/ an eye towards next year. They've lost six of seven w/ two losses to Brooklyn during that time. But they were competitive against the Clippers Monday night (lost by 9) and then again in Utah last night (actually led going into the fourth quarter). I project them topping 100 pts for a fourth straight game, which makes covering the spread seem very likely. Furthermore, they've already beaten Portland this season, doing so back in November at MSG. Off three or more consecutive SU losses, the Knicks are 7-2 ATS this season. They're a bad team playing young players, but at least that means we'll be getting a decent effort and this is just way too many points for Portland to be laying against any team. 10* New York | |||||||
03-23-17 | Purdue +5.5 v. Kansas | Top | 66-98 | Loss | -115 | 59 h 2 m | Show |
10* Purdue (9:39 ET): It seems as if Kansas is getting a lot of "love" as the potential favorite to cut the nets down next week. I'm not buying it. I felt the Jayhawks were - clearly - the weakest of the four #1 seeds coming into the Tournament. Yes, it was another Big 12 regular season crown for Bill Self, but his team wasn't as dominant as per usual. They were quite fortunate to go 12-3 SU in games decided by single digits in the regular season. Sure, they've rolled in the first two tournament games, but beating Cal Davis by 38 meant next to nothing and second round Michigan State was highly overrated (certainly not one of Tom Izzo's best teams). Meanwhile, despite being Big 10 regular season champs, Purdue doesn't seem to be getting a lot of credit here. Take the points. The fourth seeded Boilermakers, like Kansas, were "one and done" in their conference tournament. But unlike Kansas (who lost to TCU), Purdue at least had the "excuse" of running into a quality team as they fell to Michigan and let's not forget that was an overtime game as well. In fact, the Wolverines are the ONLY team to beat Purdue since the start of February (did it twice). Let's note that the Big 10 as a whole seems to undergoing a critical re-evaluation in this Tournament as they've placed a total of three teams in the Sweet 16. Wisconsin has already upset Villanova while Michigan beat Louisville. There's no reason not to think that Purdue can't do the same to Kansas here. Getting this many points, I believe they are a simply tremendous value. It's pretty rare to find them getting points (only happened three times previously this year. Purdue's 1st round game saw them beat Vermont 80-70. They shot the ball very well against the Catamounts, making nearly 52% of their attempts. Remember that Vermont was a team that came in riding the nation's longest win streak (21 games). The final score of Purdue's 2nd round matchup vs. Iowa State (80-76) was a little misleading in the sense that they led by as many as 19 in the second half. That's an Iowa State team that did beat Kansas during the regular season. Interestingly, Purdue also swept the Michigan State team that Kansas just beat. Look for the Boilermakers' size to be an issue for the Jayhawks and I simply don't believe that Josh Jackson can continue this hot run he's been on. Purdue actually has a better scoring differential than Kansas over the course of the year and is higher ranked in defensive efficiency. 10* Purdue | |||||||
03-23-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -8 | Top | 90-97 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): The Spurs (quietly) are only 2.5 games back of the Warriors for the best overall record in the NBA. But while the Dubs have recently reasserted their dominance (four straight wins by double digits), Greg Popovich's team hasn't been quite as impressive. Sure, they've won four of six, but every win has been by single digits. The most recent, a 100-93 triumph at Minnesota on Tuesday, saw them actually trail by nine at halftime. But tonight, I look for the San Antonio to post a big win in what is a revenge spot. They lost in Memphis (as 3.5-pt faves) last week and are actually 0-2 SU against their potential first round playoff opponent this season. I expect them to take this game quite seriously. Lay the points. Memphis has never had much success down in the Alamo, winning only eight times in 48 tries. This will be their first visit here this season. They're off a road loss, at New Orleans, Tuesday night. That game saw them score only 82 points. Despite recent success (loss to NO snapped a four-game SU/ATS win streak), the Grizz have not shot the ball well. Tuesday marked the fourth straight game where they were held to 42% shooting or worse and that's trouble when getting set to face the top ranked team in defensive efficiency in the entire league. Against the Pelicans, three players - Mike Conley, Vince Carter and Wayne Selden - combined to go 0 for 13 from three-point range. Saturday vs. San Antonio, the Grizz shot just 42.1% and I'm really scratching my head as to how they won that one. It wasn't a great shooting night for San Antonio either Saturday as they finished 9 of 28 from three-point range. Keep in mind this is the best three-point shooting team in the league. Also, they turned the ball over 15 times. Here at home, I expect far better results. The Spurs are outscoring opponents by 9.5 PPG at the AT&T Center. Before losing Saturday, the Spurs were 13-1 SU in revenge spots this season. I think a lot of people are going to view the points as "tempting," something that is not always the case, so fade what could be a trendy underdog. I believe this should be a double digit spread. 8* San Antonio | |||||||
03-22-17 | Illinois-Chicago v. Coastal Carolina -3.5 | Top | 78-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
10* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): Coastal Carolina moved from the Big South to the Sun Belt this season and experienced what has to be considered a moderate amt of success given the step up in class. While finishing in a three-way tie for sixth place hardly sounds impressive on the surface, note that all of one game separated third from eighth place. A tough draw resulted in the Chanticleers running into top seed UT Arlington in the SBC Tourney and they lost there 71-54. But they've since taken full advantage of the "postseason experience" by winning their first two CBI games by comfortable margins. First, they took out Hampton 83-67 as nine-point chalk. Then it was Loyola MD, 72-63 as five-point faves on Monday. At home again, I feel that this team is being severely undervalued against IL-Chicago in this semifinal matchup. Lay the points. IL-Chicago is the poster child for the excess of the College postseason. The Flames have a losing record overall and were just 7-11 SU in the Horizon League. As the nation's youngest team, I can see why they'd accept this invite though. They've made the most of it as well, including an upset of George Washington (as six-point dogs) on Monday. Their first CBI game was a close one, however, as they squeaked by Stony Brook by just two points (Sea Wolves shot just 34.1%). This will be UIC's first road game of the tournament though and I think that spells the end for them. They give up 81.4 PPG away from home and it's been more than a month since they won a true "roadie." Their regular season finale at Wright State resulted in an ugly 38-point loss. Clearly, the oddsmakers were off in installing UIC as six-point home dogs against GW Monday. The Flames led the whole way, much of the time by double digits. But playing on the road is a whole different animal. While they did win a total of four conference road games, note that two came in overtime. Not surprisingly, the two regulations wins were games where their defense actually showed up. They allowed just 54 pts to Cleveland State on 1.12 and 69 to Detroit on 2.17. But in the other seven Horizon League road games, they gave up a MINIMUM of 82 pts. That's bad news facing a Coastal Carolina team that averages a healthy number here in Conway. But perhaps more important is the fact the Chanticleers hold their opponents to just 38.5% shooting here at home. 10* Coastal Carolina | |||||||
03-21-17 | Warriors -4 v. Mavs | Top | 112-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:35 ET): I won w/ the Warriors last night as yet again they thrashed the Thunder. The game was never really close as they led by 20 at halftime and 26 entering the fourth quarter (this is on the road, remember!). While there's some concern about a potential letdown after such an emotional game (benches cleared at one point last night), it sure does seem that the Dubs are being severely undervalued for a second consecutive night. Dallas is a team that dug itself an early season hole that was far too big to climb out of. Even though they're 14-9 SU the L23 games, not even home court can rectify the massive talent edge Golden State has in this matchup. This line should be closer to double digits. Lay the points. | |||||||
03-21-17 | Bulls v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 120-122 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): Going back to the All-Star Break of the 2013-14 season, the Bulls and Raptors have met 11 times. What if I told you that Chicago has won and covered all 11 matchups?! That's the case and it makes little sense in that Toronto has generally been the better team during that time frame. Even this year has seen the Bulls post a pair of victories at the Raptors' expense. However, both came in the Windy City and tonight marks their first trip "North of the Border." I think we've learned that the Raptors have become severely undervalued in the wake of Kyle Lowry's injury as they still have the best net efficiency rating in the Eastern Conference. I'll call for this ridiculous streak to come to an end tonight as Toronto wins and covers. Lay the points. On Friday, I took the Raptors plus the points in Detroit. They won outright 87-75. Two days later, it was an even more lopsided win here at home (116-91 over the Pacers). They made 12 of 27 three-pointers in that game. Even w/o Lowry, this remains a prolific offense at home. The team averages 110.5 PPG here at the Air Canada Centre and as a result has a 23-12 SU record. All five starters were in double figures vs. Indiana and Jonas Valanciunas recorded his team-leading 26th double double. The losing streak to the Bulls is not lost on the players and surely they remember blowing a 19-pt lead and losing in overtime back in January. "Whatever we have to do to get this (monkey) off our back against Chicago, they beat us 11 in a row and that has to stop," said Raptors HC Dwayne Casey. I also won w/ the Bulls recently as in their last game, which was a 95-86 home win over the Jazz. I wouldn't look for them to hold this opponent to the low of a point total though, or to 38.3% shooting like they did the Jazz. After allowing 90 pts or less in the previous game, the Bulls are just 2-6 SU/ATS this season. Over the L5 games, they are still averaging only 97.6 PPG. This is a below average team, particularly on the road where they are only 13-22 SU for the year. Remember that before the win over Utah, Chicago had dropped seven of eight. Dwyane Wade is done for the year, probably an overrated loss, but a loss nevertheless. To me, this is all about the Raptors stopping a long losing skid that makes little sense. In addition to having the best net efficiency rating in the conference, they are #2 in point differential. 8* Toronto | |||||||
03-20-17 | Warriors -2 v. Thunder | Top | 111-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:05 ET): This will be the fourth and - barring a playoff series - final meeting of the season between Kevin Durant's current and former teams. Durant is a major reason why the Warriors are 3-0 SU/ATS vs. the Thunder and his absence also plays a large role in this line being so low. But while Golden State may not have Durant this time around, they are certainly good enough to still win @ OKC. Their average margin of victory in the first three meetings is 21 points, so that's a lot of ground for the Thunder to make up. Yes, I realize OKC is playing a lot better now and comes into tonight's nationally televised contest more healthy and with a more well rounded roster. But despite being 11 games over .500 and battling for the 5th seed in the Western Conference, this remains a very average team in terms of efficiency. Lay the short number. Golden State is #1 in the league in offensive efficiency and #2 in defensive efficiency. They've made two straight Finals w/o Durant, so I don't think there's any reason to really "sell" on this team. They had struggled at the betting window for much of the second half of the season, but are off B2B covers as DD favorites. A 30-point win over Orlando is nothing special, but beating Milwaukee by 25 shows this is still the team to beat. Note that the Dubs were eight-point favorites the last time they invaded Chesapeake Energy Arena, so we're getting a lot of value here. Yes, Durant's absence has to be accounted for. But this seems like an overadjustment to me. This is a team routinely favored by double digits. Aside from the game where they rested everyone against San Antonio (were dogs there), this is the best value on Golden State all season. The Warriors have had no issues scoring OKC in the three previous meetings this season. They've scored 122, 121 and 130 pts respectively. The Thunder are dead even in terms of points scored/allowed per 100 possessions, which is an indication of a pretty mediocre team. They enter this game on a five game SU and ATS win streak, but the L3 wins have been against Brooklyn, Toronto (w/o Lowry) and Sacramento.They have a losing record this year against teams w/ a winning record. Yes, emotions will be high for this game, but I just don't see the Thunder as being on Golden State's level, even at home and not having to deal w/ Durant. 10* Golden State | |||||||
03-19-17 | Cincinnati +4 v. UCLA | Top | 67-79 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (9:40 ET): I faded UCLA in their 1st round matchup against Kent State and despite being the vastly superior unit there, the Bruins still could not cover the spread. Granted, they came close (won 97-80 as 18.5-pt chalk), but I feel that the final score was pretty misleading. Kent State didn't even play well (started the game 1 for 11 from the field), yet was within four early in the second half. Were it not for an early 16-2 lead, one has to wonder how UCLA would be viewed right now. They did shoot a blistering 62.7% from the floor Friday night, but that number will be almost impossible to repeat here against a Cincinnati defense that ranks 11th nationally in efficiency. Meanwhile, it's rather frightening that UCLA allowed Kent State to score 80 pts, but then again their defense has been suspect all season. Unlike against Kent State, UCLA simply won't be able to overwhelm by sheer talent here. Take the points. | |||||||
03-19-17 | USC v. Baylor -7 | Top | 78-82 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
8* Baylor (7:45 ET): USC is, without question, the worst remaining team in the field. In fact, I'd argue that they were the weakest at-large team to make the Tournament. Yes, I know Trojans fans, they've "gotten this far," but it's been a pretty shaky road for Andy Enfield's team in having to overcome double digit deficits against both Providence and SMU. Now playing their third game in five days (remember they had to win a 'Play In Game') what can they possibly have left in the tank? Baylor isn't getting much respect here due to past Tournament failures, but is the vastly superior team here and should have no problem winning by the margin the oddsmakers are calling for. Lay the points. Baylor won its first round game 91-73 over New Mexico State and covered as 11-pt chalk. It was a somewhat shaky first half (actually trailed at the break!), but the Bears completely dominated the 2H, holding the Aggies to 37 percent shooting. USC is probably more adept at dealing w/ Baylor's size and length, but that doesn't mean they'll be able to overcome it. In fact, I expect Baylor to completely dominate the glass in this matchup as the Trojans are not a good defensive rebounding team. Baylor is also the far better team on the defensive end as they rank 10th in efficiency compared to just 86th for USC. The Bears allow roughly 10 PPG fewer over the course of the season. I still can't get it out of my head how lucky USC is to be here. They trailed Providence by 17 early in the second half. They trailed SMU by as many as 12. The team's record is games decided by five points or less is now a somewhat improbable 9-3 SU. In terms of luck rating, they rate among the eight most fortunate teams in the country in terms of expected vs. actual victories. Despite being 26-9 SU on the season, at no point this year have I even considered this to be on of the top 25 teams in America. In fact, in Pac 12 play, they finished just sixth in offensive efficiency and seventh in defensive efficiency and that was not a deep league. What happened was they really took care of business when favored (21-2 SU), but they're still only 4-7 SU as a dog this year, getting outscored by 8.7 PPG. 8* Baylor | |||||||
03-19-17 | Suns +10 v. Pistons | Top | 95-112 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (4:30 ET): OK, compared to the other teams in this run of underdogs I've been winning with, I rate the Suns' chances of winning outright to be fairly low. But that doesn't mean they're not worth taking plus a ton of points against a Detroit side that's been consistently overvalued throughout the year. I don't think the Pistons deserve to be favored by double digits against anyone quite frankly, not even the dregs of the league. I went against them Friday as a 3.5-point choice, here at home against Toronto, and they lost outright 87-75. It was their third straight loss and non-cover. Phoenix is on an identical streak (with all three losses coming at home) and was actually favored their last two times out! Back to their customary role of underdog, they'll fare far better this afternoon at the betting window. When favored this season, the Suns have performed very poorly, going 3-10 SU and ATS. But as a dog, they've gone 31-23-2 ATS. They'd covered five of six overall before the current three-game slide and all five covers came as a dog. (Not surprisingly, they were favored in the one loss). Overall, they're 5-1 ATS the L6 times they've been getting points. While they've elected to "shut down" PG Eric Bledsoe (21.1 PPG) for the remainder of the season, they still have Devin Booker. While a little banged up right now, Booker should be far more productive today than he was in Friday's loss to Orlando where he scored only 10 pts. By the way, the Suns have already beaten the Pistons this year, 107-100 as 4.5-pt home dogs back in November. It's not often you find Detroit favored by this many. Looking back, you'd have to go all the way to December to find the last time they were asked to lay double digits and that time they lost outright to Philadelphia, 97-79. Only one other time since (again vs. Philadelphia) have they been asked to lay more than 7.5 points. Down the stretch against Toronto, the team was just atrocious offensively, missing 13 of its final 14 shots and finishing the game 3 of 20 from three-point range. This is one of the worst shooting teams in the league and over the course of the season they've been outscored. There's just no way I'd ever lay this many points with the Pistons. 8* Phoenix | |||||||
03-19-17 | Wichita State +5 v. Kentucky | Top | 62-65 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
8* Wichita State (2:40 ET): It's pretty much been accepted that Wichita State was drastically underseeded. Some metrics consider the Shockers to be among the top ten teams in the COUNTRY, so it's clearly laughable that they were seeded 10th. Round 1 saw them favored by a record amount as a lower seed, but it was by no means easy against Dayton. They won 64-58, but did so despite some terrible first half shooting, which included 2 for 12 from the three-point line (10 of 28 overall). However, they were able to turn the tables in the 2H, holding Dayton to just 8 of 29 shooting. I feel the fact that they were able to advance despite not playing well is a GOOD sign. The Shockers being underseeded is not good news for Kentucky and remember this is a revenge spot for a couple of years ago when UK was drastically underseeded and "upset" a top-seeded Wichita State team. Take the points. Kentucky had little difficulty ousting Northern Kentucky Friday, winning that 2 vs. 15 matchup 79-70. However, they came nowhere close to covering the 20-point spread. Like Wichita State, they too had a bad shooting night from three-point range (3 of 17), but were able to overwhelm the Norse w/ their size and De'Aaron Fox and Isaiah Briscoe finished a combined 15 of 25 in the paint. But things won't come that easy vs. the Shockers, nor will the Wildcats be able to dominate the glass as they are accustomed to doing. UK has hurt itself this season (at least at the betting window) by getting off to slow starts. Interestingly, that was not the case against Northern Kentucky. Instead, it was a poor second half that kept the game closer than it should have been. Bottom line is that I'm troubled by the Wildcats' seeming inability to put together a "complete" 40-minute performance. It will cost them here. Wichita State is outscoring team by 19.2 PPG this year. Obviously, that number must be taken with some "grain of salt" considering the Missouri Valley isn't very deep, but even so, their adjusted MOV is still second best in the country. Also, this will be the 1st time all season that the Shockers will be getting points. Great value! I look for them to turn this into a half-court type game and if they can hold UK to a shooting percentage anywhere near what they held Dayton to (31 percent) or if the Wildcats shoot like they did vs. Northern Kentucky, then this one will be an outright win for the dog. I have the two teams rated basically dead even, so take the points. 8* Wichita State | |||||||
03-18-17 | Jazz v. Bulls +7 | Top | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
8* Chicago (9:05 ET): The Bulls lost again Saturday (7th time in L8 games), but at least were able to cover in Washington thanks to a late rally. Falling behind by 19 at the half ultimately doomed them and more and more its looking like the playoffs are not in this team's future. Now that being said, they are only two games back of current 8-seed Miami. Tonight, they return home where they have not won since beating the Warriors 94-87 back on March 2nd. But they are still 19-15 SU for the year at the United Center and if we've learned anything about this team, it's that they tend to "play up" (or down) to the level of competition. Thus, I think they are a great value getting a ton of points here against Utah as I imagine this being a pretty low-scoring game. For the Jazz, this will be their third road game in four nights, all out East. They started the trip w/ a 97-83 win in Detroit, but then lost in Cleveland Thursday, 91-83 as eight-point dogs. Averaging just 90 PPG so far on trip doesn't bode well for laying this many points. Sure they are 4th in the West, but this is one of the lowest scoring teams in the league remember. In fact, only two teams average fewer points per game! Utah isn't exactly healthy right now either as Derrick Favors remains out (knee) plus Shelvin Mack and Rodney Hood may miss tonight's game as well. Though it was "long ago," the Bulls did beat the Jazz back in November. It was an ugly 85-77 win where neither team shot the ball well. I imagine a similar style game tonight. On the Chicago injury front, I'm not concerned at all about the loss of Dwyane Wade as he was a pretty terrible free agent acquisition anyway. It's rare to catch this many points w/ the Bulls at home and already this year, they've gone 7-4 ATS as a home dog. 8* Chicago | |||||||
03-18-17 | St. Mary's +4 v. Arizona | Top | 60-69 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 24 m | Show |
10* St. Mary's (7:45 ET): In terms of the books' handle, this is shaping up to be the most lopsided game on the board today. That's just fine by me as I was banking on St. Mary's being underrated anyway. These teams are a lot more even than most realize and I actually have the Gaels rated higher (despite being a 7-seed while Arizona is a 2). So, naturally, I'll take the points. Both teams rolled to easy 1st round wins. St. Mary's obviously did so against a tougher opponent, VCU, whom they beat 85-77 and really it wasn't that close. Meanwhile, Arizona rolled to 100 points against overmatched North Dakota. The fact that the Wildcats hit triple digits only further adds to them being overvalued in this spot. People want to focus on the fact that St. Mary's was 0-3 vs. Gonzaga this year, but their statistical profile is excellent and the country is about to find out just how good this team really is. St. Mary's shot 63% from the field in the first half vs. VCU. That's obviously impressive, but even more so when you consider the Rams were holding foes to just 42% for the season. Hot shooting is nothing new for the Gaels, who have been at 55% or better four of the last five games. For the season, they are shooting at a 49.6% clip overall, which is 8th best nationally. Oh, by the way, they are also second in the country in points allowed at 57.1 per game! Clearly, holiding Arizona in check will be a tough test, but I feel the Gaels will be up to it. Remember that Gonzaga beat Arizona as well, in Tucson no less. So SMC's 0-3 SU/ATS record vs. the Zags isn't a huge concern for me here. They've lost only one other time this season and that was back in December to an underrated UT-Arlington team. Against VCU, the Gaels took the lead for good midway through the first half and led by 15 at the break. Meanwhile, I think there's little takeaway from what Arizona did to North Dakota on Thursday. UND was clearly no match. But the fact the Wildcats scored 100 pts is likely to gain favor with the public. Again, that's just fine by me. Despite an impressive record away from home, I've had Arizona as one of my most overrated teams for much of the season. Note that they have allowed 75+ points in six of their last seven games, including four straight. They are 0-2 ATS this season after allowing 80+ pts (North Dakota scored 82, which is kind of alarming). Arizona has had the good fortune of going 5-2 SU in games decided by five points or less this season. That good fortune will end here, however, as the underdog is the far better defensive team plus owns one of the top rebounding margins in the country. 10* St. Mary's | |||||||
03-18-17 | Middle Tennessee v. Butler -3.5 | Top | 65-74 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
8* Butler (7:10 ET): I get the fervor surrounding Middle Tennessee right now. For the second year in a row, the Blue Raiders ousted a Big 10 team in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Last year was a bonafide stunner as they beat Michigan State as a 15-seed. This year, they really didn't catch anyone by surprise as - despite being a 12-seed - they were actually favored against Minnesota Thursday. With a better team than last year, the expectation is now that MTSU will make it farther in the Big Dance. But, not so fast. Butler is a team that likes to play at a methodical pace and I think their performance Thursday against Winthrop was pretty underrated. They led the entire way in a 76-64 win and cover as 10.5-pt chalk. That improved them to 9-0 SU all-time in the Tournament when facing a lower seed. I'll lay the short number here. I mentioned earlier that Middle Tennessee was actually favored in its first round game vs. Minnesota. That was one of the few poor jobs by the selection committee in terms of seeding (Wichita St as a 10-seed was the other). There's simply no way that Minnesota deserved to be a 5-seed. Still, you need to tip your cap to the Blue Raiders for winning their 11th straight game. They've also covered five in a row dating back to the regular season finale. But tonight marks their toughest test in a LONG time. You'd have to go all the way back to a December 17th matchup vs. VCU to find the last time MTSU was a dog. I'll argue that Butler is - easily - their toughest opponent to date. The Big East is obviously a much tougher league than Conference USA. And if you want to retort that so is the Big 10, I'll agree, but the Big 10 (Minnesota) isn't as strong as the Big East and quite frankly is pretty overrated. Over its last five games, Middle Tennessee has averaged 85 points per game, which is well above their season average of 75.2. I'll call for some severe regression to the mean tonight thanks to Butler's propensity to slow down the pace. Something else to consider is that Butler owned by far and away the lowest turnover rate in the Big East. Rarely do they make mistakes. Avery Woodson has committed only 10 TO's - all season! Despite now coming off the bench, Kelan Martin is the Bulldogs' best player and leading scorer. The team's one weakness - rebounding - should not be an issue here against the smallish Blue Raiders. 8* Butler | |||||||
03-18-17 | Xavier +6.5 v. Florida State | Top | 91-66 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
8* Xavier (6:10 ET): I played both of these teams on Thursday. The fact that I won w/ Xavier and lost w/ Florida State isn't the only reason I'm taking the points with the Musketeers here. I was really disappointed by the way FSU failed to take advantage of its size against Florida Gulf Coast. Truth be told, the 'Noles played pretty poorly down the stretch and were fortunate that FGCU didn't shoot the ball well. Speaking of shooting, I don't see FSU repeating its own 55.6% performance from the field here against a Xavier team that has held four of its last five opponents to 42.9% or below. While they were a perfect 18-0 SU in Talahassee this year, the Seminoles are just 8-8 SU otherwise while being outscored. This number is now too high. Take the points. Without Edmond Sumner, Xavier wasn't even expected to be here. There was a stretch in the regular season where they lost six in a row (also went 0-6 ATS). But they've quickly rectified that w/ five consecutive covers, the only loss during that stretch coming by three at Creighton. The Musketeers looked quite good on Thursday against Maryland. Really, I wouldn't even call that an upset as I said the "better team was getting points" in my analysis and that held true. Key here is Xavier's zone defense. Maryland really struggled shooting against it (26% from three-point range) and it's not as if Florida State is prolific from behind the arc. In fact, they were an awful 2 of 13 against FGCU. Where Florida State dominated on Thursday was in the paint, which was to be expected. They shot 22 of 28 there and that's why they won. Still, they only won by six against a 14-seed despite shooting 55% from the floor. That's alarming. So is the team's free throw shooting. They missed 15 of 39 attempts from the charity stripe against FGCU. I don't see them getting that many attempts again here and the percentage of makes has been a problem all season (63.4% on the road!). Another issue Thursday was the 'Noles turned it over 16 times. Xavier may have gotten more than a point from only six players Thursday, but two were off the bench and they still have Trevon Blueitt, who didn't even play particularly well in the 1st half. While playing Orlando is theoretically an edge for FSU, Xavier has actually won seven straight times in the city! 8* Xavier | |||||||
03-18-17 | Notre Dame v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (12:10 ET): Given that I couldn't possibly make the case that Notre Dame is a better team than WVU, this number would seem to be incredibly short. I played against the Fighting Irish Thursday (successfully) and I think it's certainly notable that they only won by 2 despite Princeton shooting just 38.6% overall including 8 of 31 from three-point range. As I noted in my analysis for that game, despite B2B Elite 8 runs, Irish HC Mike Brey has the worst Tournament ATS record (now 5-12) among his peers. The physical advantages that ND had against Princeton certainly won't be present here against "Press Virginia," who had a relatively easy time w/ Bucknell in Rd. 1. I've said it all year - the Mountaineers are one of the best teams in the country. They'll show that here. Lay the points. Known for its pressure 'D', West Virginia only forced 13 turnovers in their 86-80 win over Bucknell. That's well below their nation-leading 20.3 per game average. This would appear to be a "strength on strength" matchup as ND happens to own the lowest turnover rate in the country. So who blinks? I'm banking on it being the Irish. First off, if WVU can score 86 pts in a game where they forced fewer TO's than per usual, imagine what they can do if they turn the trademark pressure up. When applying the press, WVU held Bucknell under a point per possession Thursday. Offensive rebounding is something that will be critical here for the Mountaineers as well. Outside of South Bend, Notre Dame outscored its opponents by less than one point per game. WVU was at +7.4 PPG. In the adjusted scoring margin metric, the Mountaineers rank 4th in the entire country. But again, turnovers - or lack of them - will likely decide this game. WVU forces one on roughly 24% of all opponents' possessions w/ Jevon Carter leading the country w/ 89 steals. Again, Notre Dame may have the lowest TO margin in the country. But they've yet to face pressure quite like this. Then there is the issue of rebounding. WVU dominates the offensive glass. Notre Dame will struggle with this. In the regular season, the Fighting Irish ranked 12th in the ACC in defensive rebound percentage. That's not good. Love Bob Huggins' crew in this matchup. 10* West Virginia | |||||||
03-17-17 | Kent State +18.5 v. UCLA | Top | 80-97 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
8* Kent State (9:55 ET): What an incredible run this Kent State team is on. Not only have they won 9 of 10 (only loss to Akron), but they just beat the top three teams in the MAC (including top seed Akron) in three consecutive nights to get here. There is no doubt that they've been winning close. Their largest MOV during the streak was 10 points and that came in a wild overtime game (against Central Michigan) where they had to rally back from a 13-point halftime deficit at home! Six of the nine wins have been by five points or less. Still, I look for them to keep this game close against overrated UCLA. The spread is pretty huge here. It's the largest of any of the 3 vs. 14 matchups, in fact. Because of Lonzo Ball, the Bruins have become a stock that's far too overvalued coming into this Tournament. Take the points. UCLA had won 10 in a row before losing to Arizona in the semifinals of the Pac 12 Tournament last Friday. They've lost only four games all season and have the top scoring offense in the entire country (3rd in efficiency). That all being said, there are question marks. We've seen teams w/ the most "NBA ready" prospect flame out before. Plus, rumors of HC Steve Alford leaving for the Indiana job do the team no favors whatsoever. Alford was asked about it - a lot - yesterday and this could be a major distraction. On the court, I worry about the Bruins' defense, or rather lack of it. They are 75th in defensive efficiency, which is obviously not good. I think that prevents them from building any kind of significant lead here. Speaking to the market being too high on UCLA, they are 0-3 ATS their L3 games. After pulling off so many close wins, I see Kent State's destiny as likely being a close loss here. The team is 9-4 ATS as a dog coming into tonight. That's with EIGHT outright upsets. There's no denying that this will be the toughest opponent that Kent State has faced all season. But I believe they'll be able to score plenty. They come in averaging 76.9 PPG and given UCLA's poor defense, I can see them exceeding that average here. Not only that, but UCLA isn't exactly 100% healthy right now. Ball is dealing w/ a sprained thumb. Forward Ike Anigbogu injured his foot in practice earlier this week and may not play. TJ Leaf is also dealing with an ankle. After a day where we saw virtually no upsets, expect this one to be a lot closer than the experts think! 8* Kent State | |||||||
03-17-17 | Sabres +1.5 v. Ducks | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 36 m | Show |
8* Buffalo Puck Line (10:05 ET): Unfortunately, the Sabres wilted late last night in Los Angeles, dropping the game 2-0 to the Kings. The second goal allowed came w/ just 5:20 to play and it was a killer as I had them on the puck line. But we'll try the same thing again tonight in Anaheim. It was a scoreless tie going into the third period last night and here the Sabres won't have to deal w/ Jonathan Quick. Granted, they will have to face Anaheim's Jonathan Bernier, who has been hot in his own right (.952 save percentage L4 starts). But Bernier is likely to start coming "back down to Earth" sometime soon. This has arguably been his best stretch all season. Buffalo has scored only one goal in the last two games, but w/ the league's second best power play, I think they are due to break through tonight. They'll due no worse than a one-goal loss here. Right now, Anaheim is in second place in the Pacific Division. That would mean home ice advantage in a first round playoff series, which would be huge because their opponent would likely be one of the two Alberta teams. The Ducks could still finish anywhere from second to fourth in the division, however, as only two points seperate them, Edmonton and Calgary. I was on them Wednesday here at home as they beat the Blues 2-1. That improved their home record to 23-8-3 this season, but they were actually outshot 27-22. Note that it was also a one-goal win, a result which would be just fine here. In fact, three of the Ducks' past four wins have come by a one goal margin. Five of their last six games overall have been decided by one goal. Buffalo continues to give up way too many shots (36 or more in four straight games!), but the offense is due to get things going. Before last night, the team had not been shutout in a game since November 7th! Whomever starts in goal I believe will have an easier time than expected against a Ducks offense that ranks only 20th in goals scored. Again, the Sabres held the Kings w/o a goal for two periods last night and it was 1-0 game until only five minutes were left. 8* Puck Line Buffalo (+1.5) | |||||||
03-17-17 | Raptors +4 v. Pistons | Top | 87-75 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:35 ET): While they've fallen to fourth in the Eastern Conference pecking order, I think it's fair to say that the Raptors have been - for the most part - undervalued since the Kyle Lowry injury. I say that knowing full well that they were routed last night - at home - by Oklahoma City. But even so, their efficiency rating remains the best in the Eastern Conference! Yes, even slightly better than Cleveland. Tonight, the Raptors find themselves as underdogs in Detroit. The Pistons are a team that has been consistently OVERvalued in the marketplace this year, even though their home record remains pretty good. But they've dropped two in a row this week, losing to Cleveland and Utah handily. Taking the points w/ Toronto is the way to go here. These teams last met right before the All-Star Break, in Toronto, and the Pistons actually emerged victorious. They were 6.5-pt dogs in a 102-101 victory. How they pulled that upset off is somewhat head-scratching considering the Raptors shot 50% from the field, including 8 of 16 from three-point range. Meanwhile, Detroit was shot just 42.9% including 8 of 31 from three-point range! (The Pistons were better from the FT line and that may have been the difference in a one-point game). But the bottom line is that Toronto "should" have won considering they held a 16-pt lead going into the fourth quarter. I'm willing to bet that game is still on the players' mind and they'll treat this as a big revenge spot. I'm also willing to "brush aside" last night's loss as all that did was create more value on the Raptors. Detroit is not a great shooting team (28th in true shooting percentage) and they are just 23rd in offensive efficiency. Even w/o Lowry, I favor Toronto in a shootout as they average over 107 PPG for the year and are 4th in offensive efficiency. The last two games we've seen the Pistons' offensive struggles come to the forefront. Particularly in Wednesday's 97-83 home loss to the Jazz. Tuesday against Cleveland, the defense was carved up as the Cavs shot an insane 85% from the floor in the first quarter! Three of the Pistons' last five games have resulted in a double digit losses. This is a team that has been outscored over the course of the season. While a good home team, I'm just not sure they deserve to be favored against Toronto even though the Raptors don't have Lowry. DeMarre Carroll is back in the Toronto lineup now. Note Detroit has trailed at the end of the first quarter in 9 of their last 11 games. 8* Toronto | |||||||
03-17-17 | Rhode Island v. Creighton | Top | 84-72 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
10* Creighton (4:30 ET): The market sure seems like it's not a fan of the Blue Jays here. I can think of two reasons why that is. The first is they lost starting PG Mo Watson to a season ending injury. But that happened some time ago (back in January) and they've been able to manage relatively fine. In fact, they just made it to the Big East Final against Villanova and beat a couple of NCAA Tourney teams (Xavier, Providence) along the way. The second has to do with their opponent. Rhode Island is fresh off winning the A-10 Tournament, which took them off the bubble and guaranteed a spot in this event. But there's certainly a bit of "recency bias" involved in the public backing the Rams so strongly here. I'll fade the line move and go w/ what I feel has been the better team all season. Creighton was a Top 10 team earlier this season, so this certainly appears to be a "buy low" situation. Granted, their offensive efficiency has dipped some w/o Watson. But they still rank 31st nationally in that department. They were 18-1 SU prior to the Watson injury, but just 7-8 SU since. But I view this situation as similar to the one we saw w/ Xavier (who I played!) yday. The wins over Xavier and Providence in the Big East Tourney show that the Blue Jays seem to have adjusted to life post-Watson. Besides, the team likely has a new star on the horizon in the form of 7' freshman center Justin Patton, who made 70% of his FG attempts in the Big East Tourney including a dominant 10 of 13 effort against Xavier. There are also eight different players in the rotation that shoot at least 34 percent from three-point range. While Creighton is somewhat far removed from its top 10 ranking, there is no denying that Rhode Island is currently at its peak for the season. The Rams have won eight straight. But before the A-10 Tournament began, there was some question over whether or not this team would even make the field of 68. I'd preach caution in how much stock you put into LW's run. They only had to beat one NCAA Tournament team (VCU) as they were the beneficiaries of top seed Dayton getting upset by Davidson. In fact, VCU is the only Tourney team URI has beaten during this eight-game run of theirs and VCU had nothing to play for in Sunday's final. The Rams lost to Fordham, at home, last month. I should also point out that the Big East is simply a much stronger league than the A-10. To me, this one is "all about value" as I feel the Rams (now favored) are being viewed in far too favorable terms. 10* Creighton | |||||||
03-16-17 | Sabres +1.5 v. Kings | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Buffalo (10:35 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I'm taking the Sabres +1.5. The Kings are fighting for their playoff lives currently, but not doing a very good job of it. They let me down Monday by dropping a key game to the Blues, 3-1, here at home. Even less forgiveable was the following night's 3-2 defeat at the hands of Arizona, also here on home ice. The team got a break last night w/ St. Louis losing, but they still trail them by four points for the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. Is the pressure getting to the Kings? Perhaps so. Therefore, I'll take Buffalo here w/ the added insurance that they can still lose by a goal. The Sabres are essentially playing w/ house money. Buffalo is just 2-6-2 its last 10 games, but the schedule has been challenging. Also, five of those losses have come by the one goal margin. They took a 4-1 loss in San Jose two nights ago and were outshot by the Sharks, 41-23. That's not an ideal performance to base a play off of, but before that the team had scored at least three goals in its last four games. Something else certainly worth noting is that the Sabres have the top power play in the league! Earlier I mentioned the recent tough schedule that they've faced. This month alone, they've taken on Pittsburgh, Columbus (twice) and San Jose. The Kings will actually be a drop in class. The issues Buffalo has had in goal may not haunt them here as LA ranks just 25th in the league in goals scored. Buffalo did take the season's first meeting with the Kings, 6-3. While there's somewhat of a significant discrepancy in terms of the number of shots both sides allow, I think Buffalo is going to get enough chances to do no worse than a one-goal loss here. Over the last five games, the Sabres have averaged 33.8 shots per game. 8* Puck Line Buffalo | |||||||
03-16-17 | Florida Gulf Coast v. Florida State -12 | Top | 80-86 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
8* Florida State (9:20 ET): Florida Gulf Coast is another of those trendy upset picks for Thursday. I can only assume that has a lot to do w/ the famous "Dunk City" run that the program had (as a 15-seed) back in 2013. But the problem is that no one is left from that team, including the coach (Andy Enfield now at USC). While this team did run through the Atlantic Sun w/ relative ease, I think they're being overvalued here. Florida State is getting little respect despite a second place finish in the ACC and a massive size advantage. In fact, the Seminoles are the tallest team in the entire field. That height advantage should prove critical here as unless FGCU gets red-hot from distance, they're going to be "one and done" on a lot of possessions. Lay the points. Typically, the way an upset unfolds this time of year is that the underdog gets hot from three-point range. Well, unfortunately for FGCU, they shoot just 28% from three-point range. Therefore, they tend to shoot a lot of two-pointers. Problem there is that Florida State is as good at defending two-point field goal attempts as any team in the country. They're also good at forcing turnovers. The vast majority of the FGCU offense goes through 6'2" PG Brandon Goodwin. A player of that size creating his own offense against the 'Noles seems unlikely. Outside of Goodwin, the Eagles just don't have a ton of offensive threats. To summarize, it will be much more difficult to score against the Noles than you're average Atlantic Sun team. I see FGCU not even coming close to their 79.2 PPG average. The talent level on Florida State is quite underrated. Likely NBA lottery pick Jonathan Isaac and 7'1" senior Michael Ojo should dominate the interior tonight. Then there is Dwayne Bacon, who might be one of the most talented players in the entire tournament. His three-point shooting has improved tremendously this year. There are only nine teams in the country that rank in the top 25 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and the Seminoles are one of them. Despite a mediocre finish (4-4 SU L8 games), this is clearly Leonard Hamilton's best team ever in Talahassee. Their last two losses were both by five or less to the two ACC Tourney Finalists, Duke and Notre Dame. I'm not worried about that. Too much talent for FGCU, who will not be making any kind of run in this year's Tournament. 8* Florida State | |||||||
03-16-17 | Grizzlies +4 v. Hawks | Top | 103-91 | Win | 100 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
10* Memphis (7:35 ET): The Grizzlies picked up a much needed win Monday when they beat Milwaukee 113-93 at home. They had previously lost five in a row, failing to cover every game. Then they won again last night, winning 98-91 at Chicago. Tonight they get a shot at revenge against the last team to beat them, Atlanta. I view the Hawks as one of the more overrated teams in the league right now as despite being seven games above .500, they've actually been outscored over the course of the season! They've covered only two of their last eight games themselves, so the role of favorite doesn't serve them particularly well. In fact, they're just 18-27 ATS laying points this season. I have Memphis rated as the better team here, so I'll take the points in what I expect to be an outright upset. We often see teams being undervalued in the second of back to back games. Case in point, Memphis is 10-4 SU/9-5 ATS in that situation. While shooting has been a bit of a concern lately (not against Milwaukee), it shouldn't be here as Atlanta is giving up 106.1 PPG here at home. Defending the three-point line has been the primary issue for the Hawks as they are third worst in the league at doing so. Monday night, they allowed San Antonio to sink 16 three-point field goals. Meanwhile, I like the Grizzlies' defense. They just held Chicago to 91 points on 37.4% shooting last night and led the entire second half. This is a very important game for the Grizz, who are currently seventh in the Western Conference standings. They'll return home for their own date w/ the Spurs Saturday, then head back out on the road for four games, two of which are against San Antonio and Golden State. Memphis never led last Saturday at home against Atlanta in what was a bad shooting night (37.8%). Interestingly, they were 6.5-point favorites for that game, so there's been somewhat of a dramatic shift by the oddsmakers for tonight's rematch. I believe they've overadjusted. Certainly, the 17-point loss had to have some effect, but it was just one game. Unlike Atlanta, the Grizzlies have outscored their opponents this season both overall and on a per possession basis. They are 4th in the league in points allowed, so I don't envision Atlanta scoring 107 pts or shooting above 50% like they did the last time. Also helping to inflate this line is the fact the Hawks have been off for the last two days. But sometimes that can result in a team coming out flat. I look for the road dog to exact revenge here. 10* Memphis | |||||||
03-16-17 | Xavier +1.5 v. Maryland | Top | 76-65 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
10* Xavier (6:50 ET): For awhile there, it almost looked as if Xavier might play their way OUT of the NCAA Tournament. An ill-timed six-game losing skid likely did them no favors in the eyes of the committee, but there's nothing that a couple of games against Big East doormat DePaul can't cure. The Musketeers won both of those games and then pulled an upset of Butler in the Conference Tourney, so here they are. Meanwhile, Maryland is a team that the numbers have not liked for most of this season and neither have I. Their 24-8 SU overall record is largely owed to a rather fortuitous record in close games. But the Terps started to fade down the stretch, covering only one of their last six games and they were bounced from the Big 10 Tourney by Northwestern in their first game. As you can see, this game isn't being priced like your "normal" 6 vs. 11 matchup and rightfully so. I'll call for Xavier to pull the minor "upset" as the better team is getting points. The Xavier losing streak I spoke of earlier happened to coincide w/ losing Edmond Sumner for the year. They actually won their first three games w/o him, but then came the six losses in a row. Still, beating Butler and playing Creighton tough in the Big East Tourney showed me that this team will no quietly. They still rebound the ball tremendously - at both ends of the court. They also still have Trevon Blueitt, who averages 18.0 points per game. In the loss to Creighton last Friday, Xavier actually led 37-31 at the half. They lost on a last second three-pointer. But being able to almost win despite Creighton shooting 54.7% from the field (13 of 20 from 3-pt range!) should tell you something. I seriously doubt that Maryland can match those kind of numbers. Maryland was great when priced as the underdog this season, going 10-1-1 ATS. But they were just 7-11 ATS as favorites. Granted, they are the slimmest of chalk here, but the trends are still worth noting. Melo Trimble carries the Terps, who are dealing w/ a key injury of their own, that being the season-ending ankle injury suffered by Michal Cekovsky. The Terps lost four times by eight or more points down the stretch and in three of those games they were the favorite. It's hard to like a team that turns the ball over as much as they do. They are also just 1-4 ATS their L5 NCAA Tourney games. Compare that to Xavier, who is 4-1 (3-0 in 1st Rd). Xavier also won all four times this season it played with five or more days rest! 10* Xavier | |||||||
03-16-17 | East Tennessee State v. Florida -9.5 | Top | 65-80 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
10* Florida (3:10 ET): All week long, we've heard a lot of people that haven't watched East Tennessee State play talk about how good East Tennessee State is. Granted, they were the best team in the SoCon this year (finished in three-way tie for 1st), but Florida is a bad draw for the 13th seeded Buccaneers. The Gators will simply be happy to face an opponent besided Vanderbilt as the Commies upset them not only in the regular season finale, but in the SEC Tourney as well. But those B2B outright losses have served to create some pretty significant value on the favorite in this spot. The key here will be ETSU's strength (3-pt shooting) getting neutralized by a Florida defense that does a phenomenal job of limiting three-point shots. I always say to beware of the "trendy underdog" this time of year and the bottom line is this line should be higher. Lay the points. The last time a SoCon team won a NCAA Tournament game was Davidson back in '08. That team of course had a guy by the name of Steph Curry. East Tennessee State's last Tourney win was back in '92. They are 2-10 SU all-time in the Big Dance. What will decide this year's trip is three-point shooting. ETSU shoots an impressive 38.3% from behind the arc, led by TJ Cromer, who made nine himself in a semifinal win over Samford last week. But Cromer carries a lot of the load, perhaps too much, and one player cannot beat Florida by himself. Especially not w/ the Gators allowing opponents to shoot just 30% from three-point range. What's really impressive is that they allow only 18 3-pt ATTEMPTS per game. Limiting ETSU looks, particular Cromer's, will be huge here. ETSU is pretty good at forcing turnovers. But their biggest problem is their propensity to also give the ball away. This will be a major issue against Florida. Yes, losing John Egbunu for the rest of the season hurts - both literally and figuratively. But the Gators have a statistical profile of a team much better than its overall record. Not only are they 4th in defensive efficiency, but they are a very respectable 30th in offensive efficiency. ESTU is 44th and 109th respectively. Florida is actually top 10 overall in the KenPom ratings. This is a great "buy low" opportunity as too many people are on the dog. At no point this season did the Gators lose three consecutive games. 10* Florida. | |||||||
03-16-17 | Princeton +7 v. Notre Dame | Top | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
8* Princeton (12:15 ET): Even after B2B trips to the Elite 8, Notre Dame's Mike Brey still has the worst Tourney ATS record of any HC in the field at 5-11. With his Fighting Irish fresh off a run to the ACC Tournament Final, I feel they may be ripe for the picking in their first round matchup w/ Ivy League Champ Princeton. Sure, Princeton played through Sunday, winning the 1st ever Ivy League Tournament (2 games). But this Tigers team has not lost a game since falling at Monmouth all the way back on December 20th! So, needless to say, they'll be a "tough out." This is a 5-12 matchup and I'm sure you know the history of the pairing. It always seems as if there's an early upset on the first day of the tourney, often in a 5-12 matchup. Just last year, Princeton's rival Yale pulled the upset against Baylor. Time for a little deja vu? Take the points. It's a 19-game win streak overall for Princeton and certainly it has included some close calls. None moreso than Saturday's win vs. Penn in their Tournament semifinal. It was a road game for the Ivy's top team and they trailed virtually the entire way. But after a last second tip-in forced OT, the Tigers were not only able to win the game, but also steal the cover (I was on them!). They followed that by dispatching of Yale 71-59 as seven-point chalk. Overall, they finished conference play at 16-0 SU, winning by an average margin of 13.1 PPG. Now, obviously it's a big jump in class to face Notre Dame. But this team can shoot the three-pointer well (38.3%) and they can defend (allow only 61.5 PPG). In conference play, they forced a turnover on an astounding 23.2% of opponents' possessions. Playing at a slower tempo should also serve them well here. Notre Dame may have finished second in the ACC, but they were certainly NOT the conference's second best team. In fact, I don't even consider them in the top five! Kudos to the job Brey has done in South Bend, but an ankle injury to Benzie Colson is cause for concern even though the starting forward is listed as probable to play here. Colson is his team's leading scored and rebounder and the Irish are not a team that rebounds particularly well. Rebounding is probably Princeton's one weakness, but I don't think they have to worry about the Irish exploiting it. The bigger problem for ND though is that I'm not sold on their ability to defend the three-point line. Also, when factoring out home games, it is Princeton that has the better SU record. An outright upset is a very real possibility here. 8* Princeton | |||||||
03-15-17 | USC v. Providence +3 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 20 m | Show |
10* Providence (9:10 ET): I don't really understand the intial line move for this contest. Check that. I understand it; but don't agree with it. The storyline here is in last year's NCAA Tournament (Rd of 64), Providence beat USC 70-69 on a last second layup. Now USC gets its chance for revenge. But this - to me - is clearly one of those times where the revenge angle is being overrated. It certainly seems to be overshadowing the fact that the Trojans are probably the least deserving at-large team in the field. They've dropped five of eight and one would have to go back to the end of January to find the last time they beat a team that didn't finish in the bottom three of the Pac 12! Providence was lethal in the underdog role this season, going 12-4 ATS. Take the points. In last year's meeting, USC shot much better from the field, but was only 7 of 13 from the FT line and that cost them. They returned four starters from that team and opened the season by winning their first 14 games. But few, myself included, took them very seriously. Since that 14-0 SU start, the Trojans are just 10-9 SU and, again, six of those wins came at the expense of the bottom of their league. It's telling that despite the 24-9 SU record, most don't even consider this to be a top 50 team. Their "luck rating" according to KenPom is one of the highest among all NCAA Tournament teams as they went 9-4 SU in games decided by seven points or less. Might it be another heartbreaking end to the season? Meanwhile, one could make the case that Providence shouldn't have to play this extra game. They went 3-1 SU this year against Marquette and Xavier, two other Big East teams in the field. Comparing conferences, the Big East may not be as top heavy as the Pac 12, but it was a deeper league and probably better overall. In fact, no other conference in America sent a higher percentage of its teams to the NCAA Tournament than did the Big East (7 of 10). The Friars should be able to exploit a leaky Trojans defense which gives up 77.8 PPG away from home. HC Ed Cooley called his team's performance in the Big East Tourney against Creighton "lackadaisical" and I would agree as the Friars didn't shoot well and turned the ball over 22 times. Still, they actually led at halftime. The turnover issue is usually not a problem for them and like I just said, they should shoot better here given the number of points per game USC typically allows. 10* Providence | |||||||
03-15-17 | Blazers +11 v. Spurs | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
8* Portland (8:05 ET): The last five times the Blazers and Spurs have met the latter has won by at least an eight-point margin. Oddsmakers expect that trend to continue tonight after Portland was blown out last night in New Orleans. But I feel that we can use Tuesday's score to our advantage here and grab what looks to be a somewhat generous number. Prior to last night's debacle, the Blazers had won five of six, one of those coming at Oklahoma City. I can't see them getting blown out two nights in a row. Take the points. The Spurs have been as steady as ever and have now made it a race w/ Golden State to see who finishes with the best record in the league. They took advantage of the Warriors resting stars Saturday night, beating them handily, 107-85. Then came a 107-99 win over Atlanta on Monday. But there are some issues right now in the Alamo, namely the very serious situation w/ LaMarcus Aldridge, who remains out due to heart arrhythmia. Despite beating Atlanta, they committed 23 turnovers. Three-point shooting really decided that game as the Spurs went 16 of 34 from behind the arc while the Hawks were just 6 of 22. I'm well aware of the Spurs' defensive exploits, but Portland is a far more formidable offensive foe. Also, San Antonio is just 2-6 ATS in March. They are just 3-7 ATS the L10 times laying double digits at the betting window. Portland scored a season-low 77 pts last night and shot just 30.3% from the floor. Even though they are facing the Spurs, offensive improvement is a virtual lock tonight. This is a team that averages 108.4 PPG, mind you. The fact this is a national TV game will only further emphasize the need to not be embarrassed again. Not that the Blazers should need any more motivation; they currently trail Denver by 2.5 games for the final playoff spot in the West. Again, they'd been playing well of late, albeit against some pretty bad teams. Still though, this is a spot where you can take advantage of public perception. An unrested team coming off a blowout loss, playing on the road, is almost always undervalued. That is the case here. 8* Portland | |||||||
03-15-17 | NC-Greensboro v. Syracuse -13 | Top | 77-90 | Push | 0 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
8* Syracuse (7:00 ET): Don't ask me to shed any tears for Jim Boeheim and Syracuse not being included in the Field of 68. When you post only two victories away from home ALL SEASON, your chances of making an NCAA Tournament run seem pretty slim to me. As far as the Orange's motivation for this year's NIT, there's two ways this can go. One is that the disappointment of being left out of the Big Dance will lead to a poor effort. We've seen that before from team's in their position. Or, they could take their frustration out on a lesser opponent. Given that tonight's game takes place in the Carrier Dome, I'll side with option #2. The Cuse is 16-3 SU this year in the Carrier Dome (+15.3 PPG) and one could very well question the motivation of their opponent as well. Lay the points. UNC Greensboro is the opponent for Syracuse in this 1st round NIT matchup. The Spartans wound up being the top seed in the SoCon (Southern Conference) Tournament, but only because of a tiebreaker. They were actually a very short favorite in the semifinal round vs. Wofford, a game they won by only four. Then, they were notably a dog against East Tennessee State in the final game, which they lost 79-74. Having been so close to an automatic bid, only to come up short, leaves this side with a feeling of disappointment as well. I don't think a trip to the vaunted Carrier Dome is enough to erase that. Yes, UNC Greensboro had won nine in a row before losing to E Tenn St last Monday. But that was against much lesser competition and several of the wins came by slight margins. Looking at this line, it seems as if Syracuse's home court advantage is not being factored in at all. They covered 11 of their 14 lined home games during the regular season, including outright upsets of NCAA Tournament teams Duke, Virginia and Florida State. They average 80.5 PPG here on 48.9% shooting. They also get it done on the defensive end as well, holding visitors to just 65.2 PPG on 38.6% shooting. I can see UNC Greensboro struggling against Boeheim's zone and it's a big step up in class going from the SoCon to the ACC. I expect the Orange to play w/ a chip on their collective shoulder here. 8* Syracuse | |||||||
03-15-17 | Utah Valley v. Georgia Southern -4 | Top | 74-49 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
8* Georgia Southern (7:00 ET): Unless someone has hard evidence that Georgia Southern will be deliberately tanking this evening, I have no unearthly idea why this line would be so low. The Eagles were 10-2 SU at home this year, averaging 84.3 PPG and outscoring opponents by a margin of 12.6 points per game. Playing in the Sun Belt, they typically faced much better competition than what they'll see here from Utah Valley State, a team that hails from the weak WAC. Also, if you want to question Georgia Southern's motivation here, note that the come into the CBI on a three-game losing streak. They were embarrassed by Troy in the SBC Tourney, so I believe tonight they'll be looking to atone for that performance. They will. Lay the points. Utah Valley State did not even finish the regular season w/ a winning record, in conference play or overall. They were a middle of the road team in a bad league. Two of the three teams the Wolverines finished ahead of - UT Rio Grande Valley and Chicago State - you've probably never heard of and they are absolutely atrocious. Heck, there's a good chance you've never heard of Utah Valley State! There were three decent teams in the WAC and the Wolverines went 1-6 SU against them. By far, their "crowning achievement" in the regular season was an 84-72 upset of New Mexico State in Las Cruces. But this is a bad defensive team on the road (76.6 PPG allowed) and they don't shoot well at all from three-point range. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has no issue scoring here in Statesboro. They haven't played here since a tough loss to UT Arlington back on 2.20, a game in which the Eagles led for much of the second half only to fall apart late. They rebounded w/ a win (as 7-pt dogs) at Arkansas State, but have since lost three straight. Two were on the road, at Ark Little Rock and Georgia State (were a dog in both games) and then came an ugly 90-70 loss to Troy in the conference tourney. That 20-pt loss was the Eagles' worst of the season, save for a loss at Minnesota back in early December. Like I said earlier, they'll want to atone for it. Troy shot a blistering 60% from the field in that game, including 14 of 22 from three-point range, something that UVSU is simply not capable of doing. 8* Georgia Southern | |||||||
03-14-17 | Kansas State -1.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
8* Kansas State (9:10 ET): Some "good ol' fashioned" morning steam caught my eye for this one. Truth be told, when this "first four" matchup was announced, my lean was to Kansas State anyway. Some sharp money showing up on the Wildcats Tuesday morning only confirmed my line of thinking. The upset of Baylor in the Big 12 quarterfinals is probably what solidified KSU's place in the field of 68 and it should also be pointed out that they led a very good West Virginia team most of the way in the semis before losing by just one point. They are clearly the superior defensive team in this matchup and the fact that Bruce Weber has been here many times before matters as well. Wake Forest coach Danny Manning has tourney experience, both as a player and as the HC at Tulsa (2014), but not w/ his current group, which largely overachieved this season. Manning's first two Wake Forest teams went just 24-38 overall including 7-29 SU in ACC play. This year, they jumped to 19-13 and 9-9. Despite losing to Va Tech in the second round of the conference tourney (as three-point favorites), they were able to get in. I'm not sure I agree with their inclusion though. Granted, the ACC is probably the toughest league in America. They do have a win over Louisville, but in Winston-Salem. Overall, they were just 3-7 SU vs. ACC teams that made the NCAA Tournament and only one of those wins was away from home (at Va Tech in reg season finale). Defensively, this may be one of the worst teams in the entire field. The Demon Deacons allow 77.9 PPG and only seven of the 68 teams are worse in terms of efficiency. Six of those are seeded 14th or worse. Kansas State, meanwhile, gives up only 66.9 PPG and is top 27 in the country in defensive efficiency. Compared to Wake Forest's 159th place ranking, that's a massive edge. Now Wake is the better offensive team for sure, but it's defense that matters more this time of year. Not only did the Wildcats beat the likes of West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Baylor (twice) this year, but they also played Kansas tough twice, losing both matchups by three pts or less. Yes, KSU had a losing conference record, but they are the better team here. 8* Kansas State | |||||||
03-14-17 | Pacers v. Knicks +3 | Top | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
8* New York (7:35 ET): The Knicks are a disgraceful outfit and things may have reached a new nadir w/ a loss at league-worst Brooklyn Sunday. But there is some value here, taking points against an Indiana team that is certainly not as good as its record shows. The Pacers are currently sixth in the East, two games above .500, but have been outscored over the course of the season and on a per possession basis. They did just record a big 102-98 win over Miami, but that was at home and they failed to cover as 6.5-pt favorites. The road has not been particularly kind to the Pacers in 2016-17 as they are just 11-22 STRAIGHT UP. Thus, they seem like a pretty shaky favorite, even against a team like the Knicks. Take the points. In another lost season under this sad Phil Jackson regime, the Knicks have experienced plenty losing streaks. The current one marks the fifth time this season that they've lost at least three in a row. But the good news is that they are 6-2 ATS coming off three or more straight losses. Only twice have they lost more than three in a row all season. There was a six-game slide wrapped around the New Year and then they dropped four in a row in early February. The current streak saw them drop all three games on the road. At home, they've been a lot more competitive this year, going 18-14 ATS and being outscored by only one point per game. Surprisingly, they are nearly identical to Indiana in terms of offensive efficiency overall. Defensively, the Knicks do have problems (gave up 120 pts to Brooklyn!) but the Pacers are hardly much better on that end of the floor. On the road, Indiana gives up an average of 108.4 PPG, which helps explain the lousy record. The team's last road game saw them score only 85 points in a loss at Milwaukee. They're also just 1-2 SU vs. the Knicks this year including a loss at home back in January. They also lost here in MSG, 118-111, back in December. You would have to go all the way back to early February to find the last time the Pacers won B2B games. Not surprisingly, the team has not performed well as a road favorite, going 3-6 straight up and against the spread. 8* New York | |||||||
03-14-17 | Houston Baptist v. Campbell +1 | Top | 79-98 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
8* Campbell (7:00 ET): This is an "off the radar" game in a tournament few will even pay attention to. But the matchup offers tremendous value. Campbell made a nice run in the Big South Tourney, getting all the way to the final game before bowing out to Winthrop. It was by no means an impressive regular season for the Fighting Camels (yes, that's their nickname!) as they finished just 7-11 SU in league play. But in the tournament, they pulled an impressive upset of UNC Asheville, who was arguably the Big South's best team. I think that the three wins they posted in the conference tourney will give this team incredible confidence going into the CIT. Meanwhile, Houston Baptist had to be somewhat disappointed after their "one and done" showing in the Southland. I do not think the road team deserves to be favored in this spot. Houston Baptist had been rolling going into the Southland Tourney. The Huskies had won nine straight to claim the league's 4-seed. But they were upset by Sam Houston State in the quarterfinals, at home, 63-59. They certainly picked a bad time to have their weakest offensive showing of the season. Worse yet, they wasted one of their better defensive efforts. The Huskies are not stout, especially away from home where they allow 81.5 PPG. They have just four "true" road wins all season (11 losses). Looking back through the team's nine game win streak, you see a lot of home games and a general absence of the Southland's best teams. I put little stock into the streak as the team was just 8-12 SU prior to it beginning. Campbell was by no means a dominant home team during the regular season, but they are clearly the better defensive squad in this matchup. They give up just 69.4 PPG at home and they've held three of their previous six opponents under 60 points. That's what you look for this time of year. The CIT is hardly a "marquee event," but I think the Fighting Camels will treat it as such. They have to be pleased just to be playing at all right now. Meanwhile, I think Houston Baptist is still smarting from its early exit in the conference tourney. Look out for Campbell guard Chris Clemons, who scored 51 pts in the upset over UNC Asheville. He is the nation's third leading scorer (24.5 PPG) and very well could be the difference maker in this one. 8* Campbell | |||||||
03-13-17 | Bulls +7 v. Hornets | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
8* Chicago (7:05 ET): The Bulls were blown out again yday, this time in Boston, 100-80 as 7.5-pt dogs. It was their fifth straight SU loss and non-cover. They've been a dog or pick em in all five losses, four of which have now been by double digits. Yet, it's somewhat interesting that Charlotte is getting the same amount of respect here that a superior Boston team did yday. Granted, the Bulls are w/o rest, but that alone is not enough to justify this number, IMO. Now, I have stumped for the Hornets several times since the All-Star Break, claiming them to be better than their overall record says they are. I still believe that. But this number is still too high considering how desperate Chicago is likely to be tonight. Take the points. Charlotte is also off a loss here, theirs coming Saturday in overtime to New Orleans. It was here at home and they gave up 125 points. Even w/ OT, that's a lot of points to be giving up to a team like the Pelicans. Though they continue to outscore their opponents on a per possession basis, the Hornets remain eight games below .500 and 3.5 off the playoff pace in the Eastern Conference. They are actually two games back of the Bulls, which should tell you "all you need to know" about this line. The last time these teams played (January 2nd), Chicago prevailed 118-111. That was in the Windy City, but it's not as if the Hornets are some kind of dominant home team. They're outscoring opponents by just 4.2 PPG here and are 14-18 at the betting window. This will be the third time this season that the Bulls are playing B2B road games w/o rest. They are 2-0 SU/ATS previously. Having not topped 95 points in any game in March, clearly the offense needs to get in gear. It should tonight considering the Hornets have allowed an average of 109.8 points the last nine games. There is simply no way that Chicago will play as poorly as they did Sunday afternoon where they scored just nine first quarter points in Boston and missed 19 of their first 22 shots (started 0 for 12!). Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade, supposedly the anchors of the team, combined to shoot 6 of 22 from the floor. Maybe the Bulls don't win here, but they at least cover. 8* Chicago | |||||||
03-12-17 | Cavs +6 v. Rockets | Top | 112-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (9:05 ET): This is a rare opportunity to grab this many points w/ LeBron James in the Cleveland lineup. Yes, the Cavs are just 2-7 ATS when priced as a dog this season. But the vast majority (all?) of those games came w/ LeBron out of the lineup. Helping to inflate this line vs. the Houston Rockets is the fact the NBA Champs find themselves playing the second game of a back to back. Last night saw them snap a rare three-game losing streak by beating the Magic in Orlando, 116-104 as nine-point road faves. Houston is obviously a tougher place to play than Orlando plus the Cavs haven't had much success here through the year, LeBron or otherwise. They're just 3-14 ATS the previous 17 visits. But tonight, the spread is too high. Back on November 1st, the Cavs beat the Rockets 128-120 in Cleveland. They were 9.5-pt favorites for that one. Take the points. Houston is off an impressive win in Chicago as they crushed the Bulls 115-94. They were actually six-point favorites in that one. While I'm not disputing that the Rockets should be favored (I have them #3 in my power rankings) in this spot, again, it seems as if they're being overvalued. Coming off a double digit win, the team is just 11-15 ATS this year. James Harden did injure his ankle in the game vs. Chicago and while he's still expected to play here, he won't be 100%. It was a rare strong effort on the defensive end for the Rockets in Chicago (held the Bulls to 94 pts on 38.8% shooting). But, of course, it would be ridiculous to compare the Bulls to the Cavs offensively. Cleveland comes in ranked #3 in the league in offensive efficiency (Chicago #24), right behind Houston (who is #2). The fact the Rockets allow 108 PPG should lead to a high scoring game here. Clearly that's what the oddsmakers are expecting by posting such a high O/U line. But it also means the margin for error for Houston as this large a favorite is rather slim. While the focus here will be on the Cavs' recent struggles, Houston is only 14-12 SU since Jan 11 and had lost B2B games themselves before winning in the Windy City. Cleveland's defense isn't exactly sterling, but they'll score enough to stay within the generous number and I certainly give them a shot at winning outright. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
03-12-17 | Troy State -1 v. Texas State | Top | 59-53 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
10* Troy (2:00 ET): For a third time this year, Troy will get a chance at beating Texas State. This time, obviously, the stakes are much higher. I won't be putting a ton of stock into the fact that Texas State won both regular season meetings as each game was decided by just four points. Neither contest saw Troy shoot the ball particularly well. They had a halftime lead in San Marcos last month, but obviously could not hold on. Saturday was a tumultouous day in the Sun Belt w/ the top two seeds in the conference tourney falling. That had to send the oddsmakers scrambling and as a result, I believe they've set a line that's far too low. Texas State took out regular season champ UT-Arlington yday, but that comes w/ a caveat. The top seeded Mavericks played w/o their second leading scorer. While it turned into a pretty lopsided final (Texas St won 83-62), that was due to a rather significant shooting discrepancy, the likes of which I don't see repeating itself here. Texas State averages only 65.3 PPG away from home this year. Troy may have finished a game back of the Bobcats and had to play an additional game to get here. But they have actually outscored SBC foes by a larger margin of the course of the year. Also, the difference between third place and eighth place in this league was razor thin. Three teams tied for third at 11-7 while three more finished 10-8. While Texas State was turning in a virtual wire to wire lead against the league's reg season champ, Troy needed to come back from as many as 15 down to beat Georgia State. But they faced that deficit early (first half) and still wound up winning by 11 after outscoring the Panthers 46-26 in the second half. They pulled off the comeback despite not shooting well. They were just 42.6% for the game including 6 of 26 from three-point range and missed 14 of 36 FT attempts. Fortunately, they held Georgia State to 15 of 38 on two-point shot attempts. The Trojans are now 5-0 ATS on a neutral court this year. The third time will prove to be the charm here against Texas State. 10* Troy | |||||||
03-12-17 | Arkansas v. Kentucky -8 | Top | 65-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* Kentucky (1:00 ET): Another lethargic start led to a "closer than it should have been" final for Kentucky yday against Alabama. The Wildcats, who are gunning for a third straight SEC Tournament Title here, shot 52 percent from the field in Saturday's semifinal. But despite going 13 of 17 over the final six minutes, they were just 69% from the FT line. Still, they never relinquished the lead over the final 17 minutes and here they are. Given that they were outrebounded, outscored in the paint (almost 2:1!) and -13 in bench points, perhaps it should be considered impressive that they won by any margin at all. I'm going to lay the points here as UK is fortunate not to draw Florida or even Vanderbilt in the Tournament Final. Rather, it's Arkansas, a team that's overvalued after a surprise blowout yday. Arkansas routed Vanderbilt Saturday, 76-62 and they led by more than the final margin for much of the second half. It was an impressive win considering the Razorbacks were slight underdogs in the contest. But remember they were playing Vandy a day removed from an OT win that was a late finish. Here, they've got the shorter turnaround compared to the opponent. The Hogs also stand to gain little from an upset of UK. Their lot is cast as they figure to be a middle seed (8-10) in the Big Dance next week. I do not expect the Razorbacks to play as well today, especially when it comes to shooting the ball (were 48% vs. Vandy). The Razorbacks' tempo proved to be way too much for a Vandy team that was not only off an OT game the day prior, but also playing its third game in as many days. Kentucky is a different story. The Wildcats have the SEC's best defense and had held their previous five opponents to an average of 63.9 PPG before Alabama. Overall, the 'Cats have won 10 straight. They crushed Arkansas in Lexington earlier in the year, winning 97-71 as 17.5-pt favorites. There was no meeting in Fayatteville. It sure does seem as if the oddsmakers have overadjusted the line based on the result of that first matchup. 10* Kentucky | |||||||
03-11-17 | Connecticut +10.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
10* Connecticut (5:30 ET): Apparently, the oddsmakers don't see fit to give UConn any credit for this year's American Conference Tournament being held in nearby Hartford. This will be the third day in a row I'm rolling w/ the Huskies. Thursday, they did come up just shy as double digit faves against USF (did lead by 13 at the half), but last night I cashed in huge as they upset third-seeded Houston, 74-65 as five-point dogs. The American is considered to be two heavyweights (SMU & Cincinnati) that are locks for the NCAA Tournament and then "everyone else." UConn draws one of those two heavyweights today (Cincy), but given what we saw yday, they clearly have a shot due to being the de facto host this weekend. I'll take the points for a 2nd straight day w/ Kevin Ollie's team. Cincinnati also rolled in their quarterfinal matchup yday, beating overmatched Tulsa 80-61 as 15.5-pt chalk. The Bearcats have lost only two league games all season, at SMU and at UCF, and have little to play for here. Regardless of what happens over the next two days, they'll likely be a 4 or 5 seed in the Big Dance. Other than a possible "rubber match" with SMU, there's little motivation for this side. That can be a dangerous thing this time of year. Contrast that w/ UConn, who obviously must win the next two days in order to qualify for the field of 68. Adding to that motivation here is the Huskies have double revenge. They lost to the Bearcats by double digits twice during the regular season. I see the third time being the charm, at least at the betting window. HC Ollie cited the home court edge as a big reason why his team was able to upset Houston last night "I could feel the energy in there and I know our players fed off it," Ollie said. "We played really disciplined basketball down the stretch. I was very proud of that." A strong close to the first half keyed the victory. The Huskies also shot 54.5% from the field, including 8 for 17 on three-point attempts. That's a far cry from how they shot the ball the last time against Cincinnati where they finished a hideous 15 of 48 including 3 of 18 on three-pointers. Clearly, they'll shoot better this go around. It was less than a week ago that these teams met. It's really tough to beat the same opponent three times in a year, let alone twice in a week. Again, Connecticut's home court edge here means SOMETHING! 10* UConn | |||||||
03-11-17 | Pennsylvania v. Princeton -7.5 | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 4 h 41 m | Show |
8* Princeton (1:30 ET): For the first time ever, the Ivy League is having itself a Conference Tournament! The two-day event is essentially the equivalent of "putting one's toe in the water" as they took only the top four teams. The layout of this weekend's festivities are hardly advantageous to the regular season champ, Princeton, who actually has to play this semifinal matchup on its opponent's home floor. That would be a Penn team that they've beaten twice before this season, by 9 and 15 points. They have, in fact, beaten the Quakers six straight times. Having not lost a conference game all season, Princeton has proven itself to be the head of the class this year in the Ivy League and I feel will overcome the "home court disadvantage" this afternoon. Lay the points. Penn comes into this inaugural Ivy League Tournament having played four straight games that were decided by three points or less. They won the regular season finale, 75-72 over Harvard, to clinch the 4 seed. In terms of talent and performance level, there is a clear gap here between the Quakers and the top three. Were it not for the home court advantage, Penn would realistically have zero shot this weekend. Even w/ it though, I think it's bound to be a long afternoon here. The two regular season games vs. Princeton saw them average a measly 50.5 PPG. The more lopsided result, a 64-49 loss as 5.5 pt dogs back on Feb 7, actually took place here at home. I just don't see any thing Penn has done since that time to make me think they'll be any more competitive here. Princeton dominated their Ivy League brethren this year to the tune of a 14-0 SU record while outscoring them by 13.5 PPG. They allowed just 56.4 PPG. Nationally, they rank in the top 10 in points allowed! There were only four conference games all season decided by fewer than eight points and two of those came against Harvard. The Tigers put an exclamation point on the regular season last Saturday w/ an 85-48 thumping of Dartmouth at home. Look for them to roll against Saturday afternoon. 8* Princeton | |||||||
03-10-17 | Connecticut +4.5 v. Houston | Top | 74-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
10* UConn (9:30 ET): Though they failed to cover last night (I had them) as double digit favorites against USF (won by 11), I still feel as if UConn isn't being given the proper credit here for the American Conference holding its Tournament in Hartford. Sure, it's not Storrs, but the Huskies have a definite edge in terms of locale this weekend. So even facing a rested Houston team tonight, they are the play as they are GETTING points. This is a double revenge spot to boot as Houston won the two regular season meetings by 5 and 16 points. Interestingly, the larger margin of victory occurred in Storrs, but UConn is much improved since that time. A four-game ATS losing skid may seem to indicate otherwise, but playing so close to campus here makes an outright victory a distinct possibility. Take the Points. Houston is the 3-seed here. Consider them to be a distant third behind conference heavyweights SMU and Cincinnati, the only two American teams guaranteed a birth in the Big Dance next week. Similar to UConn, Houston's regular season did have a great end at the pay window as they finished just 1-4 ATS over the L5 games w/ the lone cover coming on Senior Day against East Carolina. Four of the Cougars' six conf losses did come at the hands of SMU and Cincy. But that's not saying much considering the state of the league. While they shoot the three well, Houston averages just 72.1 PPG on the road. They are also only 1-7 ATS their L8x as a neutral court fave of 3.5 to 6 points. UConn led by 13 at the break last night and upped the lead to 15 early in the second half. But they took their foot off the gas pedal and let USF back in the game. Free throws were key, particularly down the stretch. Though tighter than you'd like to see, I don't think last night's game puts the Huskies at that much of a disadvantage here. I expect them to shoot the ball A LOT better tonight than they did in either of the two reg season matchups w/ Houston. This is actually a triple revenge spot going back to the final meeting of last season. As a dog against anyone besides SMU and Cincy, UConn has covered four straight times including a perfect 3-0 ATS in American play. 10* UConn | |||||||
03-10-17 | Warriors -5 v. Wolves | Top | 102-103 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:05 ET): The Warriors are off a loss (again!) and have now dropped three of their past five games. So much for another 70-win season. Clearly, they do miss Kevin Durant as their two lowest scoring games of the year have both come since he left the lineup. Wednesday at home was an ugly one as the Dubs lost 99-86 to the Celtics. The most shocking there was them getting outscored 27-12 in the fourth quarter. I can't remember that ever happening to this team here in the "Steph Curry era." The Warriors have also been bankrupting their backers of late w/ a 1-7 ATS record the L8 games. Tonight, they face a Minnesota team that has covered seven in a row. Because of those disparate streaks, we're able to grab a number far lower than what it should be. Lay the points. Before losing at Chicago last Thursday, Golden State had not lost consecutive regular season games since April of 2015. That game marked another 4Q meltdown w/ only 14 pts. But still, the Dubs' record when off a SU loss this year is 10-1 SU w/ an average margin of victory of 12.7 points per game. Despite the two low-scoring efforts w/o Durant, I'm going to continue to point to the fact that this was the most efficient offense each of the last two seasons when he was not on the team. I believe Golden State is going to find Minnesota's defense to be quite accommodating. Despite holding four straight opponents to 97 pts or fewer, the T'wolves still rank only 22nd in defensive efficiency. The Warriors are second in that department (trailing only San Antonio), a very unheralded component. Minnesota is playing its best basketball of the season currently and is now just 2.5 games back of the final playoff spot in the West. Finishing 8th would of course likely mean a first round playoff matchup vs. Golden State. I've called this team the 8th best team in the West for much of the year, but they're not ready for this level of competition. They did just beat the Clippers - quite easily - on Wednesday. But that 107-91 win as 6.5-pt underdogs does not set them up well here as they are just 2-9 SU this season off a SU dog win and 9-30 SU their L39 times in that role. They are also 4-23 SU off a double digit win the L3 seasons. Look for the Warriors to bounce back here. 10* Golden State | |||||||
03-10-17 | Kent State v. Ohio -2.5 | Top | 68-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
8* Ohio (8:00 ET): Despite having lost their best player (Antonio Campbell) for the rest of the season (back in late January), Ohio remains the favorite of many (myself included!) to win the MAC Tourney this weekend. Last night, the Bobcats survived a close call vs. Toledo, prevailing only 67-66 as 2.5-pt favorites. But they catch a break here in that the 6-seed Kent State happened to upset 3-seed Buffalo, 68-65 as well. That provides the Bobcats w/ a far more favorable matchup than they otherwise would have had to deal with here in the semis. Also, one could argue that Toledo is a better team than Kent (seeding malfeasance!), so this price looks like a bargain. Lay the points. Admittedly, Kent State has gotten hot over the last month. The Golden Flashes have won seven of eight w/ the only loss coming to Akron, the MAC's regular season champ, in the reg season finale. However, one has to wonder what they have left in the tank for tonight. This will be their third game in the tournament and so far they've had to survive TWO close calls. The first came at home (Monday) as they needed overtime to win a wild one, 116-106 over Central Michigan. They trailed that game (again, was at home) by 13 pts at halftime. Two Kent State players - Jimmy Hall and Jalen Avery - scored a career-high in points in that game. Then came last night's win over two-time defending MAC Tourney Champ Buffalo. This time, it was a strong 1st half for the Golden Flashes, who led 39-32 at the break. It was a game w/ a ton of foul shots on both sides, but Kent certainly benefited from THREE different Buffalo players fouling out. By virtue of being the #2 seed, Ohio has had to play just once to get here. That was last night against a Toledo team I felt was the tourney dark horse. It was not easy for the Bobcats as they trailed by eight at halftime and trailed by as many as 15 in the first half. But a 16-0 run that started in the first and carried through to the second half gave them the lead until the final minute of the game. Down one, Kenny Kaminski made a jumper w/ seven seconds to go to win it. OU has now won six of eight, their only two losses both coming by 4 pts or less to Buffalo and Akron. They split the reg season series w/ Kent (each team won at home), but the Bobcats' 18-point win in Athens was far more impressive than the Golden Flashes' three-point win in Kent. Not only is Kent playing for a third time this week, but they were the later game yday. 8* Ohio | |||||||
03-10-17 | Michigan State v. Minnesota +1 | Top | 58-63 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (2:30 ET): Right off the bat, I'll make a confession that I'm not particularly sold on Minnesota's long-term prospects (as in making it far in the NCAA Tournament). But w/ the edge of having a bye (when their opponent played yday) plus the motivation of double revenge and being off a loss in the regular season finale should spur them onto victory today. Because it's March, everyone figures to be on the "Izzo bandwagon," but the fact is that this Michigan State team simply is not as good as past editions. They won big yday, but that was w/ a bye themselves against an inferior, unrested team in Penn State. We saw in another early game yday between two seemingly evenly matched teams (Oklahoma St-Iowa St) how the bye matters. The last time Minnesota played was Sunday. They lost at Wisconsin, 66-49 as eight-point dogs. Keep in mind *I* was on the Badgers there. The loss snapped an eight-game win streak for Minnesota. Despite it not being a good shooting day (32.1 FG%), the Gophers actually led at the half, 29-27. The difference was Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig hitting five three-pointers in the second half. In two losses to Michigan State this year, the Gophers haven't shot well either (just 37.7% and 33.3%). They were blown out in East Lansing (lost by 18), but the game at home was decided by just a single point. Defensively, this team is sound as they're holding opponents below 40% shooting for the year. Again, they'd won eight in a row before Sunday and have the edge of not having played yday. I expect a very motivated side this afternoon. Michigan State won 78-51 over Penn State yday, easily covering the six-point number. They jumped all over the Nittany Lions early, taking a 45-27 lead into halftime. Keep in mind that was the Nittany Lions' second game in less than 24 hours and had to go to overtime to win their 1st round game. Sparty is now 28-14 SU in the Big 10 Tourney all-time, winning four of the last six years including last season. But ... as mentioned earlier, this is not the same strong outfit we're used to seeing out of East Lansing. They lost B2B games to end the regular season and are still just 6-11 SU on the road/in neutral site games. Minnesota actually boasts a winning record away from home, plus is 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS this year seeking revenge for a road loss. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
03-09-17 | Lakers +6 v. Suns | Top | 122-110 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
10* LA Lakers (10:35 ET): These two bad teams have been experiencing much different results of late. The Lakers probably admit to tanking, but that's what it sure looks like in year one under HC Luke Walton. They've now lost eight in a row after falling 122-111 at Dallas Tuesday night. On the other hand, Phoenix has inexplicably covered four straight. Three of those were SU wins. All of the games were played here at home. But they did lose their last time out, 131-127 to Washington. Laying points w/ the Suns has typically not been a good idea as they're are just 3-7 SU and ATS as chalk this season. Sure enough, their recent results have led to a predictable inflation of this line. Take advantage and grab the points. This is also a big revenge spot for the Lakers. In their final game before the All-Star Break, they played here in Phoenix and lost in embarrassing fashion, 137-101 as 4.5-pt dogs. That result dropped them to 2-8-1 ATS (2-9 SU) the L11 meetings w/ the Suns including 0-5 SU/ATS here in the desert. But despite all this, the Lakers are still a professional team with some pride to play for. Down by as many as 31 Tuesday in Dallas, the team at least was able to rally to make things look a little more respectable by game's end. This is a national TV game tonight, so there should be a desire not to get blown out again. With Phoenix, the Lakers are at least facing a team as inept defensively as they are. Case in point, the Suns just gave up 131 points Tuesday. That was a tough loss as they'd fought back from an early double digit deficit and even took the lead briefly. The team's record after giving up 130+ pts this year is 1-5 straight up. It's not as if they have a winning record at home either. Again, I understand that the Lakers are not good and Phoenix has played respectably of late. But this is a good number to grab in a battle of the two worst teams in the Western Conference. The last meeting aside, the Suns have proven themselves untrustworthy in the role of chalk. 10* LA Lakers | |||||||
03-09-17 | South Florida v. Connecticut -13.5 | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
8* UConn (8:00 ET): As was the case w/ Siena last week, it sure does look as if UConn is not being given the proper credit as tournament host this weekend. The fact that the American is holding it's tourney in Storrs would certainly seem to at least give the Huskies a "fighting chance" against the conference's two heavyweights, SMU and Cincinnati. While this team is nowhere close to the program's heyday under Jim Calhoun or even the group that cut down the nets a few years ago for current HC Kevin Ollie, they certainly should be able to rout lowly South Florida here on their home floor. After all, they've already beaten the Bulls by a total of 67 points in two meetings this year! Lay the points! I took Connecticut when they hosted USF last month. What an easy one that was! They crushed the Bulls 97-51 as 12.5-pt chalk, shooting 62.5% from the field including a blistering 16 of 24 from three-point range. Obviously, it would be difficult to pull off such a lopsided margin again. But, there's plenty of room to spare even w/ this double digit spread being slightly higher than it was the last time. Clearly, oddsmakers had to adjust after what happened one month ago, but IMO, they haven't adjusted nearly enough. Earlier in the year, the Huskies went to Tampa and beat USF by 21 there. I surmise the reason for this line being lower than I anticipated is that UConn dropped its last four regular season games. But two of those were to SMU and Cincy while the other two were road losses by five points or less. The Huskies are 6-1 ATS in this conference tournament the L2 years. USF won only ONE conference game all season. It was at home against East Carolina back on Feb 11, which was the game after they got destroyed here in Storrs. What's followed has been five more losses, four of them by double digits. Against the other American teams, the Bulls were outscored - on average - by about 16 points per game. Away from home, they had just one win all year and gave up about 80 PPG. All four matchups w/ UConn the L2 seasons have been decided by 20 points or more. What's changed now? Nothing. 8* UConn | |||||||
03-09-17 | Texas A&M +3.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 41-66 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
8* Texas A&M (7:00 ET): Following an impressive finish to the regular season (5-1 SU/6-0 ATS L6 games), Vanderbilt has been identified as a potential darkhorse for this weekend's SEC Tournament in Nashville. It helps that the tourney is being played in close proximity to campus. The Commodores lone loss in the last six games came at Kentucky, by just six points. They ended their regular season w/ a 73-71 upset of Florida as four-point dogs on their home floor. If the Commies were to make the field of 68 w/o winning this weekend, then they'd be the first 15-loss at large time in the history of the Big Dance. But as upward as the trajectory seems to be, I feel the team has become drastically overvalued here. I'll take the points here as Texas A&M has double revenge to boot. Texas A&M finished their regular season just one-half game worse than Vandy in the overall standings, but two games worse in the SEC. Thus, they are not even close to being considered for an at-large berth. Thus, it's "win or go home" this weekend for the Aggies. Though quarterfinal matchup w/ second seed Florida all but guarantees the stay will be a short one in Nashville, I do feel they'll pull the upset tonight. Ironically, the Aggies played Vandy tougher in Nashville than they did in College Station. It was just a five-point game at Memorial Gym three weeks ago. Vandy was a four-point favorite there. Even w/ somewhat of a "de facto" homecourt edge here, I think the Commies are overvalued for the rematch. As they did in the 1st meeting, A&M shot poorly on 2.16. In fact, they finished shooting about 40% from the field overall in the two games vs. Vandy this year. This is a team that shoots at a 46.2% clip for the year. A&M's defense must also be commended. They are holding teams to just 40% shooting - for the year. Vandy struggled in the second meeting, making only 12 of 30 two-point attempts. But they were 10 of 26 from three-point range as opposed to 3 of 16 for the Aggies. I don't expect that discrepancy to exist again here. A&M played Kentucky tough in its regular season finale, even taking a 19-4 lead to open the game. Save for Vandy, the Aggies mostly lost to only elite teams this year. Their non-conf schedule included UCLA, Arizona and West Virginia. Vandy has been one and done in the SEC Tournament the L2 years, failing to cover both times. 8* Texas A&M | |||||||
03-09-17 | Indiana -1 v. Iowa | Top | 95-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
10* Indiana (6:30 ET): From what I've seen, both teams here are considered to be below the cut line as far as the NCAA Tournament goes. Iowa is closer, generally regarded to be among the dreaded "first four out." Regardless, the loser of Thursday's Big 10 second round tourney matchup can kiss their Big Dance dreams goodbye. For the record, the rationale for Iowa being closer to the cut line is that they closed the regular season hotter (four-game win streak) and beat Indiana 96-90 in a game the oddsmakers had listed as a pick em. But that was in Iowa City and the game was decided in OT, one of four OT results this year for both sides (both went 2-2 SU). Interestingly, the oddsmakers have opened the 10-seed as the slight favorite here. I don't think by enough, however! That OT loss in Iowa City from two weeks ago saw Indiana blow an 13-point lead. It's a game they probably feel that they SHOULD have won. They outshot Iowa for the game as the Hawkeyes were a woeful 5 of 24 from three-point range. The keys were Iowa leading scorer Peter Jok going for 35 pts w/ 22 of them coming from the FT line. Amazingly, as a team, the Hawkeyes got to the charity stripe a total of 47 times in that game, converting 39 of the opportunities. Indiana also shot well from the FT line, but was only 16 of 19. That kind of discrepancy in attempt should not again exist here at a neutral setting. Both teams average roughly the same number of FT attempts per game over the course of the season and it's Indiana that shoots the higher percentage. These teams are pretty similar with each averaging slightly over 80 PPG. Both also allow plenty of points, but Indiana is slightly better, giving up four less points per game. Also, neither team has been very good away from home this year. Indiana is just 3-10 SU while Iowa is 4-9 SU. Why the edge to the Hoosiers then? Well, in addition to having revenge, I simply feel Iowa is a tad bit overvalued right now. That's thanks to stunning wins at both Maryland and Wisconsin late in the season. Meanwhile, Indiana did go to Ohio State and win its regular season finale. Iowa is just 2-11 ATS in tournament games and has been "one and done" in the Big 10 Tourney each of the last two years (0-2 ATS). 10* Indiana | |||||||
03-08-17 | Celtics v. Warriors -8 | Top | 99-86 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
8* Golden State (10:35 ET): Last week saw the Warriors lose B2B regular season game for the 1st time in almost two years. They responded w/ a 112-105 win over the sorry Knicks on Sunday. Then came a 119-111 win at Atlanta, which snapped a six-game ATS losing streak. Now that they're back home and seemingly back in a groove offensively, I like their chances to cover against the Celtics in a nationally televised matchup. Sure, Boston won't be lacking for motivation, especially coming off B2B losses themselves. The Celtics are one of the top teams in the East, but also simply not on the Dubs level. To me, this should be a double digit spread. Lay the points. This is the second meeting of the year between these two w/ Golden State winning the first, by 16, in Boston. They were 8.5-pt favorites there, so there's been virtually no adjustment here despite the change in venue. Yes, Kevin Durant is out. The team's first game w/o him did not go well as they scored only 87 pts in the loss to Chicago last Thursday, which was the game that marked the second loss in a row. But let's remember that this was the top offense in the league each of the previous two seasons w/o Durant. They've come back to average 115.5 points the last two games. Lost in all the Warriors' accolades is the fact they also rank #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. Here at home, they average an incredible 121.5 PPG and outscore teams by 17.5 PPG! Really, what else is there to say? Again, Boston is a good team, but not a team on Golden State's level. They are actually only 3-6 ATS their last nine games vs. teams with a winning record. Severely hurting their chances here is the way they've shot the ball recently. Five of the last seven games they've been below 42.5%. That kind of inefficiency won't get it done against Golden State. Yes, Al Horford missed the L2 games when the C's lost to both Phoenix and the Clippers. (He's expected back tonight). But Horford alone cannot rectify the discrepancy that exists between these teams. 8* Golden State | |||||||
03-08-17 | Missouri +6.5 v. Auburn | Top | 86-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
8* Missouri (9:30 ET): There hasn't been a more unlucky team in the country this year than Missouri. At least according to the KenPom rating. That makes sense. The Tigers are 7-23 SU despite being outscored by less than four points per game. That's crazy. There were nine different losses by five points or less during the course of the year. Needless to say, they finished last in the SEC at 2-16 SU (tied w/ LSU). That's thanks to a loss in the regular season finale at Auburn, 89-78 as nine-point underdogs. But they get a third crack at these Tigers (also lost to them 77-72 in Columbia) tonight and perhaps this one will be the charm. Take the points. Auburn gives up plenty of points per game, 79.4 to be exact. Thus, they don't exactly seem trustworthy as favorites. Missouri shot the ball dreadfully in both regular season matchups (33.4% overall!), which doesn't seem right given most of Auburn's defensive efforts. Auburn's only two wins over its last seven games against LSU and Mizzou, the bottom two in the SEC. They last posted B2B wins at the start of February. Beating the same opponent, twice in a row, is difficult to do. Thus, don't be surprised to see the favored Tigers struggle in this spot. Bruce Pearl's team is pretty young and its best players is a freshman. Missouri last won a game on Feb 11 when they clobbered Vanderbilt by 20. Again, they've been far more competitive than the record indicates. Auburn shot a season-best 56.1% from the field Saturday, including over 70% in the first half, percentages they certainly won't be able to match tonight. Despite falling behind big early, Mizzou did actually outscore Auburn in the second half. A second crack at the same opponent within a week's time should be just what the doctor ordered for the underdog here. 8* Missouri | |||||||
03-08-17 | Oklahoma v. TCU -2 | Top | 63-82 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
8* TCU (7:00 ET): The way the Big 12 tournament works is that four teams have to play today in order to make the quarterfinals. That's probably fair because there's a bit of a chasm that exists between the top five and bottom five in this league w/ only Kansas State getting the "break" of not having to play today out of the latter group. The winner here is going to have to play Kansas tomorrow, so it's likely to be a short weekend for Oklahoma and TCU. But I believe the Horned Frogs are going to be the one's highly motivated to extend their season, if only for an additional day. Not only are the playing w/ immediate revenge here (lost in Norman in the reg season finale), but they're on a somewhat misleading seven-game losing streak. Go w/ the Horned Frogs here. Oklahoma is 6-0 ATS its last six games, winning SU only three times. What's so odd about the Sooners' streak is that it coincides w/ the loss of their best player, Jordan Woodard, to a season-ending injury. Given that they won only half of the six games straight up, that tells me OU was able to take advantage of some predictably inflated lines down the stretch. All three wins came at home, by the way. In each of the three losses, they were double digit dogs. Without Woodard, Kameron McGusty becomes the team's leading scorer at 10.9 PPG. He scored a career-best 22 points against TCU on Saturday. One thing to note about that matchup is OU had two extra days to prepare and TCU was coming off a crushing one-point loss at home (to Kansas State). I said earlier that TCU being on a seven-game losing streak is "misleading." Let me explain further. Four of the seven losses took place on teh road and the three in Ft Worth came by a combined five points. HC Jaime Dixon has noted that all the close losses began to wear on his team, but that's irrelevant now with every team having "new life." Incredibly, the Horned Frogs lost B2B games by a single point (WVU, Kansas State) before losing at Oklahoma on Saturday. Note they did beat the Sooners (by three) earlier in the year, but were actually 11-point favorites. There's been a massive swing in value from that game. Note that Oklahoma has been very streak ATS this season including a losing streak of five games before covering the last six. Their rotation goes only eight deep and w/o Woodard, it includes six underclassmen. 8* TCU | |||||||
03-07-17 | Idaho State +6.5 v. CS Sacramento | Top | 76-91 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* Idaho State (8:30 ET): On the surface, it would seem as if there's little reason to endorse Idaho State at this juncture. The Bengals lost their last eight regular season games and thus finished in the basement of the Big Sky Conference, tied w/ Southern Utah at 3-15 SU in conference play. But, if we've learned anything about these conference tournaments it's that they give teams like Idaho State a "new lease on life." Obviously, with little to play for down the stretch, it wasn't a huge surprise to see them consistently falter. But save for the regular season finale against Montana, the Bengals stayed generally competitive in those losses. The team they face in the 1st round of the Big Sky Tournament, Sacramento State, is hardly any kind of world beater and has actually been favored by more than a single point just three times in the last two months. Take the points here. These teams played just once in the regular season and Sacramento State won (at home), 75-63 as six-point favorites. That's one of the three times the Hornets have been favored in the L2 months. Obviously they covered, but now are favored by the same amount at a neutral setting. There have been only two times that Sacramento State has been favored since that win on Feb 11, and in one of them they ended up losing outright (at home) to Northern Arizona. They're just 3-4 SU and ATS as a favorite this year and have laid more than six points in only one game. Tonight is just the second time all year they've been favored away from home. The Hornets went 0-3 SU/ATS in neutral setting during the regular season, losing by an average of 12.7 points per game. Now I should probably point out that Idaho State has just ONE win away from home all year. It came on January 19th at Northern Colorado. It's been really tough times in Pocatello with SIX different players being lost for the season! But, as I said earlier, they weren't totally dominated in conference play. They actually shot the ball quite well in the 1st meeting w/ Sacramento State (51.0 FG%) and should be able to do so again considering the Hornets allow opponents to shoot at a high percentage, especially on the road. Also, Sac State is less than 30% from three-point range themselves away from home. Possible shocker in 1st round Big Sky action. 10* Idaho State | |||||||
03-07-17 | Blazers +6.5 v. Thunder | Top | 126-121 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
8* Portland (8:05 ET): Oklahoma City returns home after a very ugly 0-3 SU and ATS road trip, which started w/ a 114-109 loss in Portland. The revenge angle, often times, can be overrated and I think that's the case here. Like the Blazers, the Thunder have declined this season. Particularly on the offensive end where they now rank just 22nd in efficiency. Simply put, while Russell Westbrook continues to put up incredible individual efforts, the team is not really benefiting as a whole. Westbrook scored 45 points in the loss at Portland last week, but did so on only 12 of 36 shooting. Compare that to Damian Lillard's 33 points, which came via a far more efficient evening (11 of 23 from the field). OKC has been a strong home team this season (21-9 ATS!), but is laying too many points here. Take the points. Portland has played just once since beating Oklahoma City. They hosted Brooklyn on Saturday and predictably that went well. They scored 130 pts, their second most in any game all year, and did so by shooting at a 57% clip overall while making 16 of 25 three-point attempts. The Blazers were supposed to play again last night (in Minnesota), but that game had to be postponed to due floor conditions. I think that's a break for them as now this is no longer the second game of a back to back. The Blazers may not be in the most enviable position right now (nine games under .500), but they only two back of the 8-spot and are 3-3 SU overall since adding Jusuf Nurkic from the team they are chasing, Denver. Having scored at least 112 points in each of the last five games, it will be tough to beat Portland by any kind of margin here. Not only did OKC fall to Portland on the recent road trip, they also fell to Phoenix and Dallas. None of those teams are in the top eight in the West, so that's a pretty bad sign. They scored only 89 points Sunday in Dallas. Reflecting the issue I mentioned w/ Portland being such a high scoring opponent, the Thunder are just 3-7 ATS their L10 games against teams that average at least 106 PPG. The home team has enjoyed a distinct edge in this Northwest Division rivalry the last few years, but the Blazers are 2-1 SU this year (both wins at home) and lost by only six in their one previous trip here. This is an overlay. 8* Portland | |||||||
03-06-17 | College of Charleston v. North Carolina Wilmington -3.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
8* UNC Wilmington (7:00 ET): This is the CAA Tourney Final and as expected it's a battle of the top two seeds. UNC Wilmington is the top seed, but not getting much respect due to the fact it could be a partisan crowd for Charleston. Note that this game is NOT being played on Charleston's campus, however. The teams exchanged wins on each other's floor during the regular season w/ UNC Wilmington winning 65-59 at Charleston and Charleston then returning the favor 67-66 at UNC Wilmington. Given that the Seahawks were favorites in both games, it certainly would appear - from a value standpoint - that they are the optimal side here. Lay the very short number. UNC Wilmington lost just three CAA games in the regular season. Two of them were by one point. Since their last loss, 77-76 at Elon back on Feb 11, the Seahawks have won six in a row. The defending Tournament champs scored 105 pts in yday's semifinal win over William & Mary. They shot 59% from the field and were 11 of 21 from three-point range. Will those numbers be difficult to duplicate tonight? Certainly. But let's note that this is a top 10 team nationally in scoring at 85.4 points per game. There aren't many "mid-majors" worth a damn this season, but UNC Wilmington is definitely one worth monitoring come Selection Sunday. This is a deep team. Sunday marked the 15th time this season that four or more players scored in double figures. Charleston has also won six in a row. They beat Towson yday, 67-59 as 3.5-pt chalk. Unlike UNC Wilmington, the Cougars do it w/ defense as they're yielding just 63.7 points per contests this year. They held UNC Wilmington right around that average in both regular season meetings. But I have my doubts that they can do it a third time. The Cougars actually trailed much of the way yesterday against Towson and had only 21 pts at halftime. They did not take the lead for good until after the midway point of the second half. As far as Tournament Final games go, UNC Wilmington is 6-1 ATS while Charleston is 0-4. Again, I go back to the fact that the Seahawks were favored AT Charleston earlier in the year, thus it stands to reason they should be favored by more here. 8* UNC Wilmington | |||||||
03-05-17 | Denver +3 v. South Dakota State | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
10* Denver (7:00 ET): Thanks to an unlikely regular season champion (South Dakota), the Summit League Tournament will be as wide open as any bracket we see all week. Already, there's been one significant upset, that being the 7-seed (IUPUI) knocking off the 2-seed (North Dakota St) yday and doing so in rather dominant fashion (76-57). The winner of this game will draw the top seed in the semifinal tomorrow. Denver is the #5 seed and did not play well down the stretch. They've lost three in a row coming into tonight, two at home and the other 88-64 at South Dakota State. But they get a crack at immediate revenge here playing the Jackrabbits a second straight time. I have these teams rated fairly evenly, so expect a much different result this time around. Take the points. Back on Feb 19, Denver was coming off a five-day break and set to host IUPUI. The Pioneers were 8-5 SU against their Summit League brethren and certainly in a position to challenge for a top spot in the conference. But that's when things began to fall apart. They lost outright to the Jaguars - 83-72 as seven-point chalk. Then came an even more disappointing loss on Senior Night, 84-83 to Nebraska-Omaha, a game in which they were 5.5-pt favorites. But, by far, the worst result of the bunch took place last Saturday in Brookings. There, Denver lost 88-64 to South Dakota State as four-point underdogs. While the lopsided result of that contest needs to be taken into account, it sure does seem the oddsmakers are putting a bit too much stock into it. Either that, or they "forgot" that there's no homecourt advantage here. Denver did beat South Dakota State earlier in the year, 91-82 as seven-point favorites. What has plagued them these L3 games is a lack of defense as they've given up 83, 84 and 88 points. But I would not look for SDSU to shoot 59.6% from the field again as they did last Saturday. The Jackrabbits have admittedly been on fire shooting the ball this month, but they did have a couple of off nights, one of which was on the road (at North Dakota St) where they finished at 36.8% for the game. Factoring out home games is key here b/c SDSU has just four wins away from home all season. They've averaged just 64.0 PPG in three neutral site games. Denver is actually the more efficient of the two offenses here (shoots 48.3% from the field) and I think too much stock is being put into last week's result. I look for the Pioneers to exact some revenge. 10* Denver | |||||||
03-05-17 | Minnesota v. Wisconsin -6.5 | Top | 49-66 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
10* Wisconsin (6:00 ET): It was exactly two weeks ago to the day that I released my top College Hoops play for February on Wisconsin. The Badgers were hosting Maryland and despite a low ticket count, they'd seen the sharp money come their way. They'd go onto win 71-60 as six-point chalk. Unfortunately though, that stands as their ONLY win over the L6 games. As was the case leading into that Maryland game, the Badgers are again reeling, having lost three in a row - all as favorites. The latest setback came here in Madison, 59-57 to Iowa on Wednesday. It was just their second home loss of the season. As I stated in my analysis for that Wisconsin-Maryland matchup, the Badgers don't lose B2B home games often. In fact, they don't lose B2B games often. This three-game losing streak of theirs is the longest of the season. They bounce back in a major way Sunday on Senior Night. Lay the points. Minnesota, like Maryland, is a Big 10 team that I feel is overrated. Now I will give credit "where credit is due" in that the Golden Gophers come into tonight on an eight-game win streak. They are 7-1 ATS during that stretch. But Richard Pitino's team has not won in Madison since '09 and already fell to the Badgers earlier in the season, 78-76 as four-point dogs, in overtime. While the Gophers covered there, comparing the two lines sure makes it look as if there's substantial value on Wisconsin here. I don't see Minnesota matching its shooting effort from that 1st meeting where they hit 46.9% overall from the field including 9 of 17 three-pointers. Away from home, the Gophers' scoring is a lot more pedestrian at 68.2 PPG. That's a significant drop from the 80.7 PPG they average at home. As a reminder, Wisconsin allows only 56.2 PPG at home where it is still outscoring opponents by 19.7 PPG! Not only is this Wisconsin's first three-game losing streak of the season, it's just the second three-game losing streak over the last three seasons. What better time to get back on track than Senior Day? Again, it's worth noting that the Badgers were favored in all three losses. Previously, they'd gone 18-2 SU when favored this year. While I view Wisconsin still as a top 20 team, Minnesota would hardly crack my top 35. The Gophers have three overtime wins, so the record is a bit misleading. The winner here finishes tied for second place in the Big 10, so this is a big game. Wisconsin's five straight losses to unranked teams has tied a single-season record, but I feel the market has now adjusted accordingly. They won' t be nearly as sloppy as they were Wednesday vs. Iowa (scoreless for final 3:12!) nor as bad from three-point range (6 of 23). It's worth mentioning that Minnesota's last two wins came against Penn State & Nebraska - both at home. 10* Wisconsin |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |