Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-30-16 | Pistons +3.5 v. Hawks | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
8* Detroit (8:05 ET): I have long been a fan of HC Stan Van Gundy, but it appears as if his act may be rapidly wearing thin in the Motor City where the Pistons have not been playing well of late - at all. SVG's team has just one win in its last seven games and it came against Cleveland w/o LeBron. I was on Detroit there, but also then faded them on Wednesday when they were humiliated at home, losing 119-94 to Milwaukee as 3.5-point chalk. The Pistons' only other cover over the L7 games - besides Cleveland - was against Golden State, another fortunate spot as the Warriors were playing the second of B2B road games and in a massive lookahead to the X-Mas Day game against the Cavaliers. Is there any hope for the Pistons right now? Yes, I think there is. Read on. As poorly as Detroit has played of late (five of last six losses by double digits), tonight's opponent (Atlanta) has been just as bad. The Hawks did win Wednesday night - in OT - but failed to cover at home against the Knicks. It was just their seventh win in the L20 games and they're 6-14 ATS during that stretch as well. This team has fallen off dramatically since a relatively hot start to the season. What's the issue been? Well, they've fallen down to 24th in offensive efficiency. They've also allowed 105 PPG on 46.5% shooting the L5 games. These teams have already matched up once this season, here in Atlanta, and it was all Pistons in a 121-85 win as 1.5-pt dogs. Not sure Detroit should be a larger underdog this go around, especially considering the road team has won four of the last five head to head meetings outright. Looking at the respective lineups, there are some interesting takeaways. Atlanta basically used only six players in the OT win over the Knicks w/ four logging 40+ minutes. Outside of the top six in the rotation, HC Mike Budenholzer got only 12 pts from the rest of the team and Tim Hardaway Jr was particularly brutal, going 0 for 7 from the field. Meanwhile, SVG has been tinkering w/ his lineup and the move to bring Tobias Harris off the bench certainly seems to be working. Another reason I like the Pistons to bounce back here is the fact they are 25-10 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite the L3 seasons. 8* Detroit | |||||||
12-30-16 | La Salle v. Dayton -9 | Top | 55-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
10* Dayton (6:00 ET): This is the Atlantic 10 opener for both Dayton and LaSalle, the former coming in as the favorite to bag the regular season conference crown. The Flyers finished in a three-way tie atop the A-10 standings last year, along w/ St. Bonaventure and VCU. They are by no means a decided favorite to win the league in 2017, but they certainly are a "cut above" this evening's opponent, LaSalle. The Explorers finished in the A-10 basement last season at 4-14 SU in conference play and 9-22 SU overall. They already have six wins this year and played #1 Villanova relatively tough at a neutral setting. But that was still a double digit loss and this will be too. Dayton won't take this game lightly as they actually lost at LaSalle (as 11.5-pt favorites) last season. Lay the points. Considering Dayton was a 20-pt favorite when they hosted LaSalle last year, this seems like a really good value. The Explorers have lost 13 of their 14 all-time visits here. There was a bit of a concern over whether or not Flyers' leading scorer Charles Cooke (19.2 PPG) would play here due to a wrist injury, but HC Archie Miller has said "he's a go." He missed last week's game vs. VMI, but it hardly mattered as seven Flyers' scored in double figures en route to an easy 92-56 win. This team is shooting the ball preposterously well so far and against VMI they were better than 60% from the floor, including 55.6% from three-point range. Defensively, they are significantly stronger than LaSalle, which will ultimately be the difference here. It's not just that Dayton is better than LaSalle defensively, it's that the Explorers are pretty awful defensively. Actually, that's putting it mildly: they are one of the worst defensive teams in the entire country. Currently, they are allowing 83.2 points per game, which is 338th out of 351 teams. They are 349th when it comes to defending the three-point line at 43.1%. Considering what we just saw from Dayton in the last game, not to mention all season, LaSalle is going to give up a ton of points here. I've already played against the Explorers once this year and they lost 93-78 at Georgetown. Since then, they've won a pair of games decided by four points or less, over Fla Gulf Coast and Mercer. That game against Mercer, their first outside of Philly this year, went to triple overtime and actually saw them score their fewest pts in regulation to date. This shapes up as a total mismatch. 10* Dayton | |||||||
12-30-16 | West Virginia -1 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 92-75 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (4:00 ET): West Virginia has won and covered all four meetings w/ Oklahoma State the L2 seasons and is the always tenuous short road favorite this afternoon in Stillwater, the first Big 12 game for both. Typically, such a scenario would have me leaning the other way, but I simply have way too much regard for the Mountaineers and cannot for the life of me understand why this line isn't higher. Also, how is WVU only 11th in the polls? I have them rated as one of the five best teams in the country (at least!). Maybe it's because Oklahoma State now has Brad Underwood running things on the bench that this line is so low. Underwood, of course, previous served as HC at Stephen F Austin, who upset WVU in LY's NCAA Tournament. But that fact won't be lost on Bob Huggins and these Mountaineers players, who are out for revenge. I took West Virginia exactly one week ago in their last game. They actually only led Northern Kentucky by seven at the half (this was in Morgantown), but put the clamps down late and pulled away, outscoring the Norse by 24 over the final 20 minutes. As discussed in LW's analysis, WVU is a very deep squad - sometimes going as deep as 13 players - and is also #1 in the country in forcing turnovers. They are top four nationally in defensive efficiency and top 14 in offensive efficiency. Six of their last seven wins have been by at least 27 pts. Sure, you might make the argument that this is a "true" road game, just their second of the season to date. Well, in their first they went to Virginia and won 66-57 as eight-point dogs, the lone non-27+ pt win over the L7 games, yet perhaps the most impressive victory of the bunch. Oklahoma State had to hire Underwood because the program had fallen on hard times under predecessor Travis Ford. The Cowboys went just 12-20 SU last season, so clearly they have a long way to go. They're already 10-2 SU for Underwood, but a 107-75 loss vs. North Carolina earlier in the year tells me they are nowhere near ready for an opponent of this caliber. Underwood is trying to build his team the same way Huggins has his, and in the same vein as we saw at SFA. But the problem here is that WVU is simply much better in all facets of the game right now. 10* West Virginia | |||||||
12-30-16 | TCU +1 v. Georgia | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 21 m | Show |
10* TCU (12:00 ET): It was nearly a year ago (just after the New Year) that TCU gave me what still stands as one of my most memorable wins of 2016. If you're a regular client of mine, perhaps you recall that the Horned Frogs were LY's *10* Bowl Game of the Year. Less than 48 hours before gametime, however, disaster struck. QB Trevone Boykin was arrested for punching a police officer and declared out for the game. Consequently, just about everyone wrote off TCU's chances in the Alamo Bowl vs. Oregon. Things looked especially dire when at halftime they trailed the Ducks 31-0. What happened from there is something I'll never forget. Playing w/o their starting QB, the Horned Frogs staged a comeback for the ages (largest in bowl history) and won the game outright, in triple OT, 47-41! Thus, I was never really concerned over whether or not this year's starting QB (Kenny Hill) would play, considering the miracle HC Gary Patterson pulled off last season. For the record, it's looking like Hill will play and for the second year in a row, TCU is a tremendous value in their bowl, this time the Liberty against Georgia. While TCU entered LY's Alamo Bowl w/ a 10-2 SU record and #11 ranking, this year's squad finished the regular season unranked at 6-6 SU. But they were certainly more "unlucky" than "bad." Case in point; they lost TWO double overtime games, one to Arkansas and another to Texas Tech (both games were in Ft. Worth). They lost outright four different times as a favorite (were 1-7 ATS overall as chalk), thus finished as one of the worst ATS bowlers at 3-9. But that's created some value here. This offense still averages 32 PPG. The defense was #1 in the Big 12 in both yards per play and attempt. Patterson has won four of his last five bowl games, the lone loss coming by a single point to Michigan State in 2012. TCU is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS the L3 seasons in games where the line is three points or less. They are 6-2 SU/ATS off a bye. Georgia, like TCU, did not have an ideal finish to the regular season. While TCU was humbled by Kansas State, the same happened to UGA at the hands of in-state rival Ga Tech. They lost 28-27 (as 4-pt faves) at home to the Yellow Jackets, their third such loss by three points or less. First year HC Kirby Smart will have this program on an upward trajectory next year, but here he'll be hampered by an offense that topped TCU's scoring average only twice all year and one of those games was vs. LA Lafayette. The other was the season opener. Yes, some of that is going up against SEC defenses on a weekly basis, but UGA's league was down this year and remember they play in the weaker division. QB Jacob Eason was either "boom or bust" on a weekly basis and when facing pressure it was almost exclusively the latter. The 'Dawgs defense struggled all year against mobile QB's such as Hill. 10* TCU | |||||||
12-29-16 | North Dakota v. Portland State +1.5 | Top | 62-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 13 m | Show |
8* Portland State (10:05 ET): Officially, Portland State hails from Big Sky country. However, the Vikings may want to petition to join the West Coast Conference. That's because already we've seen them pull off three outright wins over WCC foes, all on the road and all as underdogs of 8.5 pts or more. For the record, the three teams that they beat were: Pepperdine, San Francisco and Portland. Maybe PSU is the team that could finally unseat Gonzaga? In all seriousness, the Vikings appear to primed and ready to roll in tonight's conference opener vs. a North Dakota side that has dropped three in a row. These two are expected to be the top challengers to Weber State in the Big Sky, so a win would go a long way. I expect the home team to get the job done. Portland State has won all four of its home games, by an average 33.8 points per game, though I should point out that none of those games were lined. (All four opponents were non-D1). The most recent visits came from Walla Walla exactly one week ago and that resulted in a 118-59 victory. But prior to that were the upsets of San Francisco and Portland. Against the latter, they impressively controlled the game most of the way, even leading by double digits at the half. With the exception of two games this year - losses at Arizona State and Loyola Marymount (another WCC team), the Vikings have scored a minimum of 77 pts every time out. Among all Big Sky teams, this one was tops offensively and record-wise through the non-conf slate. North Dakota is 0-3 ATS head to head w/ PSU the L2 seasons, though they did win SU (by three) in LY's lone meeting (were -4 at home). Because Portland State was initially pegged so low in the Big Sky this season, we are still able to grab some nice value in this spot. As mentioned above, North Dakota did not finish its non-conference schedule well, though a double digit loss at Iowa was to be expected. They've been off for seven full days, which could actually work against them (rest vs. rust?). In the end, all we are looking at here is a team winning SU on its home court. I don't think that's too much to ask in this matchup. 8* Portland State | |||||||
12-28-16 | Iowa v. Purdue -12 | Top | 67-89 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* Purdue (8:30 ET): The Big 10 Conference enjoyed a renaissance on the football field this year, challenging the all-mighty SEC as the best in the land. However, somewhat quietly, the level of play we've seen in Big 10 basketball has ironically faded at the same time. During the Big 10's time as arguably the strongest league nationally, Iowa was a program that never really lived up to the hype. The Hawkeyes certainly aren't as strong now as they've been in past years, thus I shudder to think what the reaction will be from the always temperamental HC Fran McCaffery here as his team faces what I have ranked as the standard-bearer for Big 10 basketball in 2016, Purdue. I look for the Boilermakers to roll tonight in West Lafayette. Lay the points. Really, one could make case that any one of three teams could win the Big 10 this year. Iowa is not among that group. Purdue is, along w/ Wisconsin and Indiana. But as stated earlier, I currently have the Boilermakers rated as the best of the lot. They finished the non-conference slate at 11-2 SU w/ a 46-pt rout of Norfolk State seven days ago. Their only losses so far have come to Villanova and Louisville, who are a combined 23-1 straight up. The loss to 'Nova did come here in West Lafayette, but otherwise they're 7-0 SU at home and still outscoring visitors by a whopping 24.5 points per game. Since losing at Louisville on 11.30, Matt Painter's team has covered all five of its lined games, including an impressive 86-81 win over Notre Dame. Every other win has come by at least 24 points. This is a loaded roster, which contains the Big 10's leading scorer (Peter Jok at 22.6 PPG) and Caleb Swanigan, who just went for 32 points and 20 rebounds in the last game. Making this play all the more appetizing is that it's a double revenge spot for Purdue as they lost both meetings last season. In the game here at home, they blew a 17-point halftime lead and somehow lost despite holding the Hawkeyes to just 20 first half points. This year, Iowa is not as strong as they've already lost five times, including a game to Nebraska-Omaha. The Hawkeyes have played just one "true" road game thus far and lost it (by double digits) to the same Notre Dame team that Purdue just beat. Including neutral site games, Iowa is just 1-3 away from Iowa City. They, like Purdue, come in with plenty of rest, but the problem there is an 18-40 ATS record when taking the court w/ 5 or 6 days rest. Purdue has been one of the best teams to bet on in recent years, going 46-25 ATS in all games L3 seasons, including 7-1 as a favorite so far in 2016. 10* Purdue | |||||||
12-28-16 | Bucks +4 v. Pistons | 119-94 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show | |
8* Milwaukee (7:35 ET): I played both of these teams on the day after Christmas. Truth be told, I feel it "should" have been a 2-0 sweep. Detroit certainly held up its end of the bargain, blowing out an undermanned Cleveland team (no LeBron James), 106-90. It certainly helped the Pistons that the Cavs were off a huge win over Golden State on Christmas (reason James was held out). Meanwhile, around the same time that Detroit was beating Cleveland, Milwaukee also appeared to be en route to a double digit win in Washington. They led the Wizards most of the way after jumping out to an early 7-0 lead and the game was 96-86 in their favor w/ just over seven minutes to go. But from there, they were outscored 21-6 and I had to settle for a 'push.' I look for atonement tonight from the Bucks, who are the better team getting points. The Bucks come off three straight 'home and home' sets, which was some quirky scheduling. They swept Chicago, got swept by Cleveland and then split with the Wizards. Here, they will face a Detroit team that they lost to very early in the year, 98-83 as seven-point underdogs in the Motor City. Judging by the lines, the Bucks have clearly picked up some respect from the oddsmakers as they should have. Or is it that the Pistons have lost some? Probably a little of both. I don't read much into the fact that Detroit just went 2-0 ATS against LY's NBA Finalists. What a break it was to face those teams, both at home, sandwiched around the NBA Finals rematch on X-Mas Day. Prior to beating the LeBron-less Cavs on Monday, the Pistons had lost five in a row, four of those coming by double digits. While Milwaukee perhaps might still be a little short-handed tonight, they're still in a better spot than the last time they came calling to the Palace of Auburn Hills. On October 30th, they were in the second game of a back to back and had just won a tough two-point game the night previous. While some role players might be MIA, the Bucks still have Giannis Antetokounmpo, who damn well better be an All-Star this year. Outside of Tony Snell, no one made a three-pointer against the Wizards, something that will not happen tonight. Nor will the Pistons be able to benefit from the Bucks shooting a poor 38% from the floor like the LeBron-less Cavs did Monday night. Detroit, typically a poor shooting team in its own right, was 16 of 28 from three-point range against Cleveland as well. That won't be duplicated here as for the year they're just 34.4% from behind the arc. 8* Milwaukee | |||||||
12-28-16 | West Virginia v. Miami (Fla) -2.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 283 h 7 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (5:30 ET): The line for the Russell Athletic Bowl is sure to turn some heads. We have an unranked team favored over a ranked one, and a Top 16 one at that. But I'm not going to fall for the oddsmakers' trap here. Miami, led by its QB Brad Kaaya, had a strong finish to the regular season. They won their last four games, all by 14 pts or more, covering the spread every time. That includes a 51-28 thrashing of a Pitt team that would go on to upset Clemson (in Death Valley) the following week. Meanwhile, while #16 West Virginia turned in a 10-2 SU regular season, they did so despite beating only TWO teams (BYU, Kansas State) that had winning records. Both of those games were in Morgantown, early in the season, as well. Lay the points. Perhaps the relatively weak schedule explains why the Mountaineers were able to turn in a surprisingly strong defensive performance this year, despite playing in the Big 12. Note, however, that they were rocked at home by Oklahoma, giving up 56 points. This defense gave up a lot of yards, 431 per game to be exact. So the fact they only allowed 23.4 points per game should be considered somewhat fortuitous. Over the L5 games, WVU allowed a minimum of 440 yds every time out. They needed a +4 TO margin at home to squeak by Baylor at home in the reg season finale. Call me crazy, but I don't think motivation will be as high as it will be on the other side. This bowl assignment following a 10-2 SU campaign hardly seems "rewarding." Miami's defense allowed only 18.9 PPG this year and gave up far fewer yards than WVU. So they look to have the edge on that side of the ball. With Kaaya under center, I think they're the better offensive team as well. Kaaya has posted three consecutive 3,000+ yard seasons and is the program's all-time passing leader (think about that for a second!). Yes, I am aware that seven Hurricanes have been suspended for this game, but most were not major contributors. The remaining players will desperately want to snap "The U's" 0-fer streak in bowl games that dates back to '06. First year HC Mark Richt is 10-5 SU all-time in bowl games and I think it's important that he finishes w/ a better record than last year's team. The 'Canes played only one bad game all season (at Va Tech) as all eight wins were by two touchdowns or greater. Their other three losses (besides Va Tech) were by a combined 11 pts. I'm high on the job Richt is doing down in Coral Gables. 10* Miami FL | |||||||
12-27-16 | Jazz -4.5 v. Lakers | Top | 102-100 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
10* Utah (10:35 ET): I really like the Jazz in this spot. Granted, they have not been performing well of late. But I still have them ranked in the top seven in the league despite three consecutive losses. Two were to Golden State and Toronto, who are my top two ranked teams. The third came by one point. After having the Holiday weekend off, I anticipate this team will come out highly motivated and take advantage of an opponent ripe for a letdown. The Lakers beat the Clippers on Christmas Day, but remain a downtrodden franchise as it was only their second win in December, the other coming at Philadelphia's expense. Lay the number here. Really, the fact that the Jazz are even competitive in the Western Conference is really impressive given all the injuries that they have had to deal with. George Hill and Alec Burks remain out, though Rodney Hood is expected back tonight after dealing with the flu. That said, the won-loss record could certainly be better. It's a bit strange to see that they've played only three games decided by three points or less. But they definitely gave one away Wednesday to Sacramento. Still, I'm encouraged by the fact that over half of the team's wins have come by double digits and they've also cleaned up against the bottom feeders, going 13-5 vs. those teams at .500 or below. The Lakers, for those keeping score at home, are 12-22 SU. While the Lakers may have snapped an 11-game win streak against their tenants and city rival on X-Mas day, the Clippers were clearly short-handed as they were without both Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. So let's not give Luke Walton's team too much credit, okay. LA continues to rank near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency (currently 29th). That's a far cry from Utah's fourth place ranking. In fact, there's a 15.4 point per game differential between what the Jazz and Lakers respectively allow. Not only do the Lakers have just two wins this month, they are only 4-10 ATS. Utah is 6-1 ATS the L7 times its has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, including perfect 3-0 ATS this season. 10* Utah | |||||||
12-27-16 | Baylor +8.5 v. Boise State | Top | 31-12 | Win | 100 | 85 h 21 m | Show |
10* Baylor (10:15 ET): A "dark cloud" hung above the Baylor program coming into 2016 in the wake of a wave of sexual assault allegations. HC Art Briles was shown the door and Jim Grobe (Ohio, Wake Forest) stepped in as a lame duck. Matt Rhule (Temple) has already accepted the head coaching job for next year, so Grobe and his players (which WON'T include RB Shock Linwood) have one more game together in this most lame duck of seasons, which sees the team enter the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl on a six-game losing skid, an all-time record for any bowler. I called the Bears a "toxic program" heading into the reg season finale at WVU, but they covered for me anyway, even outgaining the Mountaineers in a back and forth 24-21 loss as 17-point dogs. As was the case there, I think there's plenty of value on the Bears here. Take the points. Baylor experienced the opposite season of fellow bowler Miami (OH), a team that opened 0-6 SU but finished 6-6 SU. The Bears hope to now experience the same ATS result that Miami did in yday's St. Petersberg Bowl. This will be just the third time this year Baylor is an underdog, the other two coming at Oklahoma and WVU. Since the start of 2013, this is just the sixth time they are getting points in any contest. They are 3-2 ATS in the previous five, including an upset in LY's Russell Athletic Bowl vs. North Carolina where they came in similarly short-handed and all they did there was roll up a bowl record 645 yards rushing. So, I'm not really bothered by Linwood's absence as he wasn't even the team's leading rusher in the reg season. Terence Williams (945 yards) was. I should probably mention Baylor's opponent at some point. That would be Boise State, who like Baylor was 3-9 ATS in the regular season. The Broncos' vaunted reputation actually works against them at the betting window, at least in conference play, where more often than not they are large favorites. By the way, as respected as this program is, they've won only one Mountain West Title since 2011. Despite that, they have won four bowl games since that time. But while they certainly love to take on teams from the Power 5 conferences, it is rare for them to be favored by so much over one. There is precedent (last year) for Baylor playing well in this spot and seeing as the offense is "plug and play," they can overcome those absences too. 10* Baylor | |||||||
12-27-16 | Washington State v. Minnesota +10.5 | Top | 12-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 21 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (7:00 ET): It has certainly been a messy time between the end of the regular season and the Holiday Bowl for Minnesota. Allegations of sexual assault rocked the program, resulting in the suspension of 10 players. Their teammates threatened to boycott the bowl game; that was until they learned more about the allegations. HC Tracy Claeys has found himself in the midst of a firestorm for defending the players looking to boycott and his job may be hanging in the balance. After all that, a game will be played Tuesday night in San Diego and the Golden Gophers are big underdogs to Washington State. As unpopular a side as the Gophers may be w/ bettors and the public right now, I can see a situation unfold where they become galvanized. Certainly, there is now some value in taking the points (line opened much lower) and that's what I'll do. The grand irony here is that Claeys did a good job with this team this year. He took over in 2015 for Jerry Kill, who had to resign due to health concerns. The Gophers were one of a handful of 5-7 SU bowl teams LY and like the others, won and covered, defeating Central Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl (21-14 as four-point chalk). It was the program's first bowl win since 2005, snapping a seven-game losing streak. I was fairly high on the team this year and they improved to 8-4 SU. All four losses occurred in league (Big 10) play and three were by seven points or less. The other was the reg season finale at Wisconsin 31-17 as 14.5-pt dogs. I really like this team's 13-5 ATS mark when taking points. The offense will look to play "keep away" with a rushing game that averages 186 YPG over land. The defense, while somewhat suspect against the pass, typically does a great job rushing the passer. They are 21st in the country in sacks per game. Washington State was a team I expected to regress some in 2016, but for a second consecutive season they enter the bowl game w/ an 8-4 record. But I'm not sure motivation will be as high here as it was going into LY's 20-14 victory over Miami in the Sun Bowl. Give the Cougars' credit for having another strong passing attack (5th in the country), but the Pac 12 simply was not as strong as the Big 10 was this year. I'm not in love w/ Wazzu as a favorite, a role they are just 3-4 ATS in this year and 1-4 ATS L5 times laying 3.5 to 10 points. Also, there's a bit of a concern here after a disappointing loss in the Apple Cup (Washington) in the reg season finale. Certainly, that game meant more to the players than this one will. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
12-27-16 | Cornell v. Syracuse -19 | Top | 56-80 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
10* Syracuse (7:00 ET): In the rugged ACC, Syracuse is on the verge of becoming somewhat irrelevant. Perhaps that's an overreaction. After all, the program was just in the Final Four (as a 10-seed) last season. But it does appear as if another mediocre regular season is in the cards, judging by recent results. The Orange are nowhere close to the level of North Carolina, Duke, Virginia and Louisville. That become patently obvious when they lost outright, by 33, to former Big East foe St. John's here at home, six days ago. They were 14-point favorites in that game. It was the Orange's second home loss in three games and the worst ever at the Carrier Dome. But there is a precedent for a bounce back and keep in mind this team used to never lose non-conference home games. I'll still lay the points here. Syracuse was simply atrocious from the field against St. John's, which partly explains the shocking result. They were just 32.8% overall, including 4 of 24 from three-point range. This is the first time in Jim Boeheim's coaching career that he's lost five times in the non-conference portion of the schedule. St. John's has generally been awful under Chris Mullin, so I really can't state how shocking a loss, particularly the margin it came by, was. But, as I said earlier, there is precedent for a bounce back here. After losing to Georgetown on 12.17, two days later the Orange blew out Eastern Michigan here at the Dome, 105-57. I expect something similar, maybe not quite as severe, here. The team is 5-2 ATS when playing w/ 5 or 6 days rest. Cornell is the opponent Monday and they are a regular on the Syracuse schedule. Not surprisingly, the head to head matchups have been lopsided in favor of the Orange. It was a 21-point win last year. Cornell is not as strong this season as they have only three wins, one of them coming their last time out against SE Missouri State. The 78-62 win there represents their largest margin of victory - easily - all season. Away from home, where the Big Red has played most of its games, they are giving up over 80 points per game. Offensively, they have only three players averaging more than six points per game. 10* Syracuse | |||||||
12-26-16 | Lions +7 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 27 m | Show |
8* Detroit (8:30 ET): My own power rankings suggest that this spread should be over a touchdown, but there are special circumstances in play Monday night. With the Giants losing outright on Thursday, Dallas not only has the NFC East sewn up, but homefield advantage throughout the playoffs as well. That makes the L2 weeks of the regular season pretty irrelevant from their perspective. For Detroit, however, much is still to be gained. We already know that the NFC North will be decided next week when they host Green Bay. However, a win tonight would at least clinch them a spot in the playoffs. Given the circumstances at play here, I'll be taking the points and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the Lions won SU. Detroit has enjoyed a fortuitous season to this point as they have managed to go 8-4 SU in one-score games. The only time all year that they have NOT trailed in the fourth quarter was a 28-13 win at New Orleans three weeks ago. However, I will give them credit in that LW's loss at the Giants marked their first loss all season by more than a touchdown. I know it sounds crazy, but QB Matt Stafford seems to have benefitted from the retirement of WR Calvin Johnson as no longer is he locked into one receiver. Defensively, the team is in the top 10 in yards per game allowed. What's really impressive is that only four opponents have been able to score more than 20 pts against this Lions defense. None of those games have taken place in the last eight weeks. Given what you've just read, it should not come as shock to find that this team is 5-3 ATS as a dog this year. After that 9-0-1 ATS start, the Cowboys have failed to cover four in a row. They were "back doored" B2B weeks by Washington and Minnesota, then "Odell Beckham'd" by the Giants. Last week, they were back and forth w/ Tampa Bay and needed four turnovers to pull out a 26-20 win. While a perfect 4-0 ATS as an underdog, Dallas is just 5-5 laying points at the betting window. They are saying they won't be resting starters, but I imagine they will. There's no reason to increase RB Ezekial Elliott's workload before the playoffs and I imagine we'll see Tony Romo come in for Dak Prescott at some point. The Lions are going to be highly motivated coming off last week's loss and that's the difference here. 8* Detroit | |||||||
12-26-16 | Cavs v. Pistons -6 | 90-106 | Win | 100 | 9 h 60 m | Show | |
8* Detroit (8:05 ET): I pounced on this line the second I saw it as I believe there's a good chance Cleveland will be resting stars following it's thrilling 109-108 victory over Golden State on Christmas Day. Regardless of who does or does not rest for the Cavs and what the line ends up being, this play stands. Detroit did not play Christmas Day and is a desperate team right now. They've lost five in a row now after falling here at home to Golden State on Friday. They did cover there (barely!), however, and this is somewhat of a "lucky" scheduling quirk in that they draw the Warriors and Cavs sandwiched around their big NBA Finals rematch. The defending NBA Champs are now 22-6 and have won 10 of their last 11 games, the lone loss being a situation where they rested LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love (at Memphis on December 14th). That trio combined for an incredible 76 points, 25 rebounds, 17 assists and 10 steals yday. You have to wonder what any of them would have left in the tank for tonight. Two of the Cavs' six losses this year have been w/ James out of the lineup. They also haven't had to play much on the road lately. They did trail the Warriors by 14 early in the fourth quarter yday and I'm still a bit concerned about the team's defense, which still only ranks 13th in efficiency. That will have to improve if they are to repeat as World Champs. Detroit is a good defensive team (7th in efficiency). They've slipped some in that department of late, but again, this is a desperate team entering the final week of 2016. Despite the recent struggles though, the Pistons are one of just seven teams in the East to have outscored opponents this year. They are allowing only 94.0 PPG at home. They are 3-1 ATS as home dogs factoring in the Warriors game. Again, I expect Cleveland to rest at least one (likely two?) of its superstar trio. As of press time, both LeBron and Kyrie's statuses are questionable. Again, regardless if they play not, this play stands. With the injury to JR Smith, the Cavs are a depth-shy team. They used only eight players Sunday and one of them (DeAndre Liggins) was held scoreless. 8* Detroit | |||||||
12-26-16 | Bucks +4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 102-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): What an odd scheduling stretch it's been for the Bucks. Tonight's battle in the Nation's Capital will complete their third consecutive home and home series w/ an Eastern Conference opponent. The first, with Chicago, saw them take both games in impressive fashion. The second, with Cleveland, brought two tough losses (one in overtime). This one, with Washington, started out by them winning 123-96 as three-point favorites on Friday. Therefore, given that result and what we've seen from the two teams over the course of the season, I don't really understand this line. The Bucks have been the better team all year long and while the Wizards have had a profitable December, Friday's result illustrated that they still have a long way to go. Take the points. Though currently only .500, Milwaukee has the look of a playoff team to me. Over the L4 seasons, they have alternated playoff and non-playoff years, so that pattern works now works in their favor for 2016-17 after dipping down to 33 wins LY. They are one of only five Eastern Conference squads to be currently outscoring opponent by 2.0 points per game and I like the young talent on hand here. Particularly Giannis Antetokounmpo, who scored a career-high 39 points on Friday. If this man is not an All-Star, there should be a federal investigation. The team scored 73 pts in the first half and shot 56.3% for the game against the Wizards. While those marks will prove difficult to match tonight, especially on the road, note Washington is 22nd in the league in defensive efficiency. The Bucks were able to score 66 pts in the paint against them on Friday. Coming into the year, many (myself included) had thought the Wizards might be the young team ready to step up in the East. Thus far, that obviously has not happened. They have been a better team at home and like I said earlier; they've been better in December (7-2 ATS L9 games). But, to show how the market regards them, this will be the first time in the last seven games they have been favored. They were favored at home vs. Milwaukee (-4.5) back on December 10th and wound up covering by half a point. They won't be as fortunate this time around. 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
12-25-16 | Ravens v. Steelers -5.5 | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 57 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (4:30 ET): This is a critical game if the AFC North. The first place Steelers can put the division "to bed" w/ a win. But a Ravens victory would dramatically alter things as it would give them a season-sweep and put them in driver's seat. But, there's a small problem for Baltimore here and that's this is a road game. The only two places they've won this year (besides Baltimore) are Cleveland and Jacksonville. Having to win their final two games, both of which are on the division road (next week at Cincinnati), thus puts them behind the 8-ball. Making matters more problematic is the fact that Pittsburgh is rolling; the Black and Gold have won and covered each of their last five games. Lay the points here. The Steelers were not at their best either of the last two weeks, yet were able to win a pair of tough road games over the Bills and Bengals. Two weeks ago in Buffalo, they turned it over three times, yet were still able to win 27-20 thanks to a dominating performance from RB Le'Veon Bell (200+ yards). Last week, they fell behind Cincinnati early. It was a 20-9 game at halftime and they didn't take the lead until just over seven minutes were left in the game. But it's not as if the offense didn't move the ball. They gained 382 yards and the only reason they fell behind was settling for field goals. There were six of them from Chris Boswell, meaning the offense actually scored seven of the nine times they have the ball. One of the times they didn't was the final drive of the game when they moved the ball 75 yards on 13 plays and ended the game by kneeling the ball inside the Bengals' 10-yd line. Despite the close nature of the game, they actually outgained Cincinnati 382-222. Baltimore was a bit of a fortunate winner last week. Sure, they led the Eagles early, but Philly elected to go for a 2-pt conversion and the win on the final play. It was the second straight non-cover for them after losing to the Patriots the previous Monday. We know that the Ravens have a strong defense, but they could be w/o CB Jimmy Smith here and that potentially means there's a major issue when trying to cover Steelers WR Antonio Brown. Bell did not have a good game in the first meeting this year (only 32 yards), but I'll guarantee he plays better here. Also, that first meeting was Ben Roethlisberger's first game back after suffering an injury and he did not play well. Shockingly, the Steelers have lost four straight times to the Ravens. That streak comes to an end on Christmas Day. 8* Pittsburgh | |||||||
12-25-16 | Celtics -1.5 v. Knicks | 119-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
8* Boston (12:05 ET): Taking a look at the current Eastern Conference landscape, it becomes quite clear that there are two teams - Cleveland and Toronto - well ahead of the pack. There are also three teams - Miami, Brooklyn and Philadelphia (especially the latter two) - that have already fallen off the playoff pace. Everyone else (10 teams) is bunched up, seperated by no more than four games. Of those 10 teams, the Knicks belong near the bottom. Granted, record-wise, they're not just middle of the pack, but actually near the top. But this is a team that's been outscored by about 2.2 pts per game (similar differential to Miami) and is a lousy 3-9 SU vs. teams w/ a winning record. They also rank 25th in defensive efficiency. Coming into MSG on Christmas Day will be the Knicks' division rival, Boston. The Celtics were expected to be the top contender to Cleveland in the East this year, but so far that has NOT been the case as it's Toronto instead. But Boston certainly is in discussion for the third best team in the conference. Coming off an outright loss (at home) to Oklahoma City on Friday night, motivation should not be an issue for the road team here. Nor is the price range judging from the fact that this season has seen the C's go a perfect 6-0 against the spread as a road favorite of three points or less. Overall, they are 12-5 ATS on the road, one of the best marks in the league. Ironically, the Knicks have the best ATS home record in the league (11-4). But, again, that's largely a byproduct of being undervalued against bad teams. Case in point; they're off B2B wins and covers over Indiana and Orlando. It appears as if the media will be infatuated with Kristaps Porzingis' status here. But I believe that Celtics PG Isaiah Thomas is the player to watch in this game. He scored 29 points in the 115-87 win over the Knicks last month while Porizingis played one of his worst games of the season, missing 10 of 15 shots. Thomas almost led the team to victory Friday by scoring 15 consecutive pts in the 4Q, but ultimately it was not enough. But the Knicks are a weaker opponent than the Thunder. Being a top 10 team in offensive efficiency, the Celtics should be able to score plenty here. 8* Boston | |||||||
12-24-16 | Dolphins v. Bills -3.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (1:00 ET): Though it's the Dolphins and not the Bills still in playoff contention, to me, the latter is still the better team. Yes, this is a game that Miami "has to have" and their playoff odds figure to take a massive hit if they were to lose here. But just because they "must win" doesn't mean they "will win." This is the dreaded second of back to back road games for the 'Fins, both in divisional play no less. Sure they clobbered the Jets last Saturday, 34-13 as slight 2.5-pt favorites. But that game was somewhat "gifted" to them via four New York turnovers as total yardage was 360-303, not in Miami's favor. That's pretty par for the course for this team in 2016 as they actually rank a woeful 28th in YPG differential. Also, Buffalo has a YTD point differential of +44 (Miami is +1 & that's after LW's blowout) despite being two games below Miami in the AFC East standings. Lay the points. The Bills were fortunate enough to draw the winless Browns last week and that led to their most complete game in sometime. The final score was 33-13 w/ a 451-269 edge in total yards. Still their playoff chances are on life support as is HC Rex Ryan's tenure here. But I anticipate a strong close to the season nontheless. This is a revenge spot for Buffalo, who blew an 11-point lead down in Miami earlier in the year. That loss snapped what was at the time a four-game win streak for the Bills. Previously, they had beaten Miami five out of the last six times they had played (also 5-1 ATS) including a season sweep last year. Let's not forget one of the key storylines here and that's Miami is still sending out a backup QB, Matt Moore. Moore was sufficient enough against the downtrodden Jets LW, but I can't possibly see him throwing for another 236 yds on just 12 completions again. RB Jay Ajayi literally and figuratively carried the load in that 1st meeting of the year w/ Buffalo, but he's slowed down in recent weeks. In fact, the Dolphins have failed to run for 100 yds as a team five straight weeks. Even after beating the Jets, Miami is just 2-10 ATS its L12 December games. Normally, I might be scared off by having to lay "the hook," but this spread should be closer to a touchdown anyway. 10* Buffalo | |||||||
12-24-16 | Titans v. Jaguars +5 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
10* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): There are two ways to view LW's disastrous Jaguars' loss, which resulted in the firing of now former HC Gus Bradley. One way would be to take a look at the fact team threw for all of 83 yards and somehow still led the Texans 20-8. The other way would be to simply chalk it up as another brutal result that ultimately led to Bradley's dismissal. Whatever way you choose, I'm still taking the Jags and the points this week. This has been a far more competitive team than their 2-12 SU record might indicate. Also, you have Tennessee in a spot where they are ripe to be upset. They pulled out a somewhat miraculous rally last week in Kansas City. While much improved, the road favorite role is certainly new to the young Titans. I can't remember the last time they were getting this level of public support. Again, fade 'em and take the points. Tennessee comes in riding a three-game win streak that has them tied w/ Houston (Indy one-game back) atop the AFC South. But all three wins were by six points or less and they've been outgained over the course of them. On the road this year, the Titans are averaging the same number of points (23.4 PPG) that they are allowing. This will be the sixth time this year that they've been favored and while they're 4-1 SU in the previous five, they're also only 2-3 ATS. They've been road chalk just one time and failed to cover there (at Chicago). As a favorite of more than a field goal, they are 0-3 ATS. They were somehow able to beat BOTH Denver and Kansas City even though Marcus Mariota did not throw a single TD pass. Going from road dog to road favorite in a week's time is a pretty massive swing, regardless of opponent. Jacksonville is 0-6 SU at home. No team wants to go winless in front of its fans over the course of a season. Having given away one home game to London means this is the home finale. Adding to the motivation here is the coaching change. Players should certainly be out to impress whomever ends up leading the new regime. Again, the Jaguars have played a lot better this year than the record shows. Again, they led Houston 20-8 last week, on the road. It was their fifth loss by five points or less. It's also easy to forget that Tennessee trailed KC 17-6 last week. I just feel taking the points is the way to go here. 10* Jacksonville | |||||||
12-23-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Navy +7 | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 30 h 10 m | Show | |
8* Navy (4:30 ET): It was only three weeks ago that Navy stood tall at 9-2 SU and was heading into the AAC Championship Game as a home favorite over Temple. But, on a fateful play where both QB Will Worth and slotback Toneo Gulley, their fortunes quickly sank (pun intended). First, they lost the AAC Champ Game to Temple 34-10. Then, a week later we saw their historic 14-game win streak over rival Army come to an end. This is is the first time since 2014 that the Middies have experienced B2B losses and because of that and the injuries, we've seen the biggest line move for any bowl game take place here. I'm in "buy low" mode with the Middies here as they face Louisiana Tech in the Armed Forces Bowl. Take the points. Louisiana Tech also enters in off B2B losses. If you're a regular subscriber, you may recall me playing against the Bulldogs in the C-USA Title Game and it paid off. It appeared as if defense was a foreign concept to the contingent from Ruston as they were shredded for 58 points in a loss to Western Kentucky. The week prior, as 15.5-pt road favorites, they lost 39-24 at Southern Miss. So they too arrive in poor form. Again, the defense was just horrific against WKU as they allowed a ghastly 656 yards and the final score would have been even more lopsided had it not been for three Hilltoppers' turnovers. Given the 235 rushing yards La Tech allowed there, one must wonder how they will handle the top rushing attack in the nation (310.9 YPG). My guess is "not well." This will be the first time that the Bulldogs have seen the vaunted triple option. To say these teams have different offensive philosophies would be putting it mildly. Navy will run almost exclusively while La Tech has accounted for all of 13 - yes 13 - rush yards the L2 weeks. They did throw for 500+ against WKU, but I don't think QB Ryan Higgins will find that same success here against the Navy defense. Meanwhile, Navy backup Zach Abbey should improve dramatically from his performance against Army. He's had an extra week to prepare here and will be facing a defense that doesn't face the triple option in practice every day. The line move has begat a ton of value and it's absolutely worth pointing out that Navy has been a consistent money-maker taking points through the years. They've also won their bowl game each of the L3 years, including this one in 2015. 8* Navy | |||||||
12-23-16 | Northern Kentucky v. West Virginia -25 | Top | 61-92 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
10* West Virginia (4:00 ET): I've seen terms like "upstart" thrown around when referring to Northern Kentucky, who comes to us by way of the Horizon League. And perhaps that's true; the Norse are 9-3 straight up in this still young season, having already pulled off three outright upsets. Overall, they are 7-1 ATS at the betting window, including a perfect 4-0 when getting points. But, needless to say, it's a big step up in class from their previous opponent (NAIA school Brescia) to West Virginia, who almost everyone considers one of the seven best teams in the country. Well, except the pollsters, but what to do they know? Bob Huggins' Mountaineers are 8-0 SU in Morgantown w/ an avg MOV of 41 points per game! So, yeah, don't be afraid to lay this number, which should be several points higher. WVU is a deep team. Huggins has elected to go w/ a 13 man rotation at times. Given the defensive pressure we see from them, that's probably a wise move at this juncture of the season. Currently, the Mountaineers lead the country in forcing turnovers at a whopping 26.3 per game. They are a top four team in terms of defensive efficiency and also top 15 on the offensive end. The lone loss came at a neutral setting against Temple (by four) and since then the Mounties have won six in a row, five of those coming by at least 27 points. The one exception, ironically, was perhaps the most impressive in the streak: a 66-57 win at Virginia. Despite beating Radford 84-57 three days ago, Huggins was sure to label his team's second half performance as "really lethargic," so expect this to be a motivated favorite this afternoon. For the record, while WVU was outscored in the second half by Radford (35-31), they also entered halftime w/ a 53-22 advantage. Maybe Northern Kentucky is an "upstart." But here they're simply "overmatched." Norse HC John Brannen wasn't exactly pleased w/ his team's last performance, despite it also being a 20+ pt win. But the difference between NKU and WVU is that the former is in no position to "name the score" here. Picking to finish seventh in the 10-team Horizon League, the Norse have taken advantage of some generous lines thus far. Remember, their last two opponents were Eastern Washington (maybe the biggest overachiever in terms of wins & losses in the country) and a NAIA school. They have lost to Austin Peay, NC Central and Illinois by 15. Without question, this will be the toughest opponent they face all year. 10* West Virginia | |||||||
12-22-16 | Spurs v. Clippers +1.5 | 101-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show | |
8* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): I get that the Clippers have regressed some since a very hot start to the year and that the Spurs are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in their last five games. But I still believe that at home, the Clips deserve to be favored in this spot. Consider that earlier in the season, during that hot start, the Clips went to San Antonio and whipped the Spurs 116-92 as 4.5-pt dogs. While this game be that lopsided? Probably not. But after watching what Los Angeles did for me on Tuesday night vs. Denver (I laid the points), I'm confident that they can win this game. This is the Spurs' second tough road game in the L3 nights. Tuesday saw them go into Houston and snap the Rockets' 10-game win streak. But they had to pull off a desperate rally, culminating w/ a Patty Mills' three-pointer w/ 12.9 seconds remaining, to earn that 102-100 victory. They also benefited from some uncharacteristic poor Houston shooting. The Rockets made only 38% of their total FG attempts and missed 32 of 38 three-pointers. The other teams, save for Boston, that San Antonio has beaten during this win streak of theirs quite frankly haven't been very good. The list includes Brooklyn, New Orleans and Phoenix. Overall, they've shot 10 full percentage points better than their opponents the L5 games. That is a difficult differential to maintain. In terms of efficiency, the Clippers are 5th on offense while San Antonio is 6th. On defense, the Spurs are 4th and the Clippers are 5th. So that seems like a pretty even matchup to me. The Clippers' only loss over the L6 games was one of those dreaded Sunday afternoon affairs, in Washington, at the end of a three-game Southeast trip. They returned home to blow out Denver on Tuesday, shooting 54.7% from the floor. They did so w/o the services of Blake Griffin and it is his continued absence that can be the only justification for the current number on this game. I think it's an overreaction. The Spurs will be resting Manu Ginobili tonight, by the way. As a road fave of three points or less, the Spurs are a surprisingly poor 4-9 SU and ATS the L3 seasons. This is just the fourth time all year that the Clippers will be an underdog. They are 2-1 SU/ATS previously. 8* LA Clippers | |||||||
12-22-16 | Giants v. Eagles +2.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 105 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:25 ET): Despite the disparate records, I still feel the Eagles should be favored here. The Giants come into the City of Brotherly Love riding a wave of positive headlines. It is their defense that is drawing the most accolades after holding the Cowboys and Lions to a total of 13 points the L2 weeks. Yet, ironically, Philly's defense is giving up fewer points per game, at least here at home (15.3 PPG allowed). If the Giants were a stock, my guess is that most analysts would be yelling "sell high" right about now. Quietly, the offense has been held to 17 pts or fewer each of the L3 games. That hardly makes them an ideal candidate to be laying points on the divisional road. Going back to the respective records, the G-Men are 10-4 w/ a point differential of +22. The Eagles are 5-9 SU, but actually have a point differential of +17. I smell what will be dubbed an "upset" here. Take the points. Being that these are divisional rivals, they have met one time before this season. Ironically, I was on the G-Men when they hosted the Eagles on November 6th. Philadelphia gave that game away w/ two early Carson Wentz INT's putting them into a 14-0 hole. But the Eagles still finished w/ a 443-302 edge in total yds in what ended up being a narrow 28-23 loss. The problem from the Eagles perspective was that three times they failed to convert on fourth down, the final time coming on the NY 17 yard line w/ under two minutes to go. Close losses have been the story of the Eagles' season as they have six of them by seven points or less. They have zero wins within that margin. All five Eagles victories have come by at least nine points. Isn't it time they won a close one? The Eagles are coming off B2B close losses, first to the Redskins and then LW at Baltimore when they went for a two-point conversion and the win, down 27-26, on the final play. Had they converted that play, everyone would probably view them a lot differently right now. Something else to consider here is how much better the Eagles are at home where they are 4-2 SU (1-7 SU on the road). I mentioned earlier that they only give up 15.3 PPG here. Despite how these teams have been trending of late, the Giants remain a poor 27th in YPG differential. Before the Week 9 matchup, the Eagles had won and covered four straight over the Giants. Carson Wentz set his career his passing yards (347) in that 1st meeting while Eli Manning has lost to the Eagles more times than any opponent in his career. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
12-22-16 | Colorado State v. Idaho +17 | Top | 50-61 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
8* Idaho (7:00 ET): Idaho is probably one of the weakest teams in the entire bowl field, but this is still far too many points that they are getting. I can't see Colorado State being that enthused about this bowl assignment. Boise is a place they regularly travel to because of the Mountain West schedule and sure enough one of their five losses this year took place on this field. They did cover against Boise State, losing only 28-23 as huge 28-pt dogs. Starting with that game, they actually closed the regular season w/ seven-game ATS win streak. Things really ended on a high note as they thrashed both New Mexico and San Diego State. But, again, I seriously doubt the Rams will be able to match that intensity in this "ho-hum" matchup, even though they are searching for their first bowl win since '13. Take the points. Believe it or not, Idaho is 2-0 SU/ATS all-time in bowl appearances. Both were on this field in what was then known as the Humanitarian Bowl. The last was in 2009. So the Vandals should be absolutely thrilled to be here, especially since it will be the program's last bowl game. Wait, what? Yes, the school was booted from the Sun Belt and thus has made the logical decision to drop down to the FCS level. Despite knowing this coming into the year, the team performed very well for 4th year HC Paul Petrino, particularly down the stretch. Like Colo State, they also come in riding a seven-game ATS win streak! All of those games came against SBC foes, but the lone SU loss was on the road to Applachian State. Thus, I'll reiterate that this sure does seem like a lot of points. All the talk here seems to be centered on QB Nick Stevens and the Colorado State offense, but what about an Idaho defense that allowed 14 pts or less in three of its final four reg season games? The Vandals' overall defensive numbers are a bit skewed due to early season games vs. Washington and Washington State. (Remember that Colorado State was also crushed by Colorado in it season opener). Both teams are a lot different now than they were back in September, but a real key in handicapping this matchup is that this will be just the second time that CSU is favored by double digits in FBS play this year. In fact, they were the betting favorite in only 4 of 11 FBS games! 8* Idaho | |||||||
12-22-16 | UC-Davis v. Air Force -6 | Top | 67-77 | Win | 100 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
10* Air Force (4:00 ET): This will be the second time this week that I'm taking the Flyboys here in Colorado Springs. Monday, I backed them getting points against Colorado. Though Colorado somewhat gifted us the cover w/ some bad FT shooting down the stretch, note that it was also a tie game w/ just under 10 minutes remaining. Air Force outrebounded the Buffs, but all of those achievements are nothing more than Pyrrhic considering it was the Falcons' second straight loss at home and sixth in the last seven games overall. But, I feel the third time will be the charm Thursday in Colorado Springs. What is it with these bad Big West teams? Yesterday's 10* College Hoops play saw me fade Cal State Northridge and today I'll do the same w/ Cal Davis. Lay the points. Cal Davis snapped its own four-game losing skid last Saturday, but that came at the expense of William Jessup. The Aggies actually burned me by covering last week at North Dakota State, a game where they were getting 10 points. I'm not so sure that the difference between N Dakota State and Air Force is as great as the oddsmakers are making it out to be here. Note that the entirety of Cal Davis' losing streak came away from home, either in a neutral site game (1) or "true" road games (3). I did successfully play against them in a 25-point loss at Cal on December 10th. Save for Cal, it's been a pretty weak schedule for the Aggies to this point. These teams have exchanged upset victories each of the last two seasons. In 2014, it was Cal Davis coming here to Colorado Springs and winning outright as 6.5-point pups, 81-75. The AFA returned the favor last season by winning 67-60 as 4.5-point pups. This year, I say it's time for the favorite to hold serve. Air Force is most certainly the better team here and they're at home. Despite the losing streak, they've arguably been competitive in every game as all but one loss was by single digits. As I continue to harp on, the bottom of the Big West seems to be really bad this year and Air Force is 6-2 ATS its last eight games vs. this conference. I just can't see the Falcons losing a third consecutive home game and the number is small. 10* Air Force | |||||||
12-21-16 | BYU -8.5 v. Wyoming | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 37 m | Show |
10* BYU (9:00 ET): Wyoming is in a bowl for the first time in the Craig Bohl era (last appearance was 2011 New Mexico Bowl), which admittedly only began three years ago. However, credit the job done by Bohl here as LY's team went just 2-10 straight up. This marks only the fourth time since the '93 Copper Bowl that the Cowboys are playing in a postseason game. They went 8-5 SU this year and made a first-ever appearance in the Mt. West Championship Game, losing it (at home) to San Diego State 27-24 as seven-point dogs. However, the issue I see here is that when you take the Pokes out of Laramie, they simply are not as good. Coming into 2016, they had dropped 16 of 18 games away from home and even w/ this season' resurgence, they went just 2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS. Perhaps you're surprised by how big the number is here, but I say "lay it." In fact, I would have the number closer to two touchdowns here, which is why this grades out as such a strong play. BYU certainly will want to atone for LY's dreadful Las Vegas Bowl performance against rival Utah where they fell way behind early and lost 35-28. While this program regularly participates in bowl games, they haven't won since appearing in this very one (Poinsettia) back in 2012 against San Diego State. Kalani Sitake replaced Bronco Mendenhall (left for Virginia) at the helm this year and led the Cougars to an 8-4 SU record where all four losses were by a FG or less. Three of those losses came in September, to Utah, UCLA and West Virginia, but after that the team rallied for a 7-1 SU finish w/ the one loss coming at Boise State by a single points. This is a team that beat Toledo, Michigan State and Mississippi State. They also closed the regular season strong w/ four consecutive wins by 17 points or more. Tanner Mangum will be starting at QB here for BYU as Taysom Hill injured his elbow in the reg season finale. No worries; Mangum has started multiple times in his career here, including a few memorable victories last season. You really have to worry about a leaky Wyoming defense, which permits 34.8 PPG and that number jumps to 42.5 PPG away from home! Their last two away games, the Cowboys have allowed 56 and 69 points and they were actually favored in both instances. I project a big game here for BYU RB Jamaal Williams, who ran for nearly 1200 yds in the reg season despite missing three games. The Cougars also have a big edge on defense and on special teams in this matchup. Look for them to beat an old conference foe soundly in this one. 10* BYU | |||||||
12-21-16 | Kings v. Jazz -6.5 | 94-93 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): These teams experienced very different results last night. The Jazz were completely humbled in a 104-74 loss to Golden State. The Kings, paced by 55 points from the enigmatic Boogie Cousins, won a wild one over Portland, 126-121. But let's not allow one night's results to cloud the overall picture of these respective teams. Utah has lost only three times in its last 14 games. Two of those were to Golden State, the other by a single point to Miami. Sacramento, who has yet to post B2B wins this month, is a below average team w/ massive chemistry issues. The Kings have lost SU and failed to cover off their previous six SU wins. The Jazz are a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS off a double digit loss this season. Lay the points. It hardly mattered in the end, but the Jazz did themselves no favors last night by shooting just 35.5% from the floor. Despite coming out of the gate ice cold, they were actually able to hang with the Warriors for a bit, trailing only 19-15 at the end of the first quarter. Utah remains one of the premier defensive teams in the league, especially at home where they give up an average of just 93.5 points per game. They are third in the league in defensive efficiency. Just 11 days ago, they beat Sacramento by 20 here, 104-84 as six-point chalk, limiting them to only 37.8% shooting. My projections say this should be a double-digit line. Looking at how each team has performed in the second of back to back games also is telling. Sacramento is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS in the spot while Utah is 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS. The Kings are annually one of the worst defensive teams in the league and a far cry from the Jazz on that end of the floor. To quantify, they rank 24th in efficiency and give up an average of 104.6 PPG. It's safe to say that Cousins won't be scoring 55 points again tonight. The only time in the L13 games that he failed to score at least 20 points was that loss here in Utah 11 days ago. Keep in mind that game saw the Jazz turn the ball over 22 times, leading to 36 Sacramento points, and they still won by 20. Off a season-low in points scored, I expect a major bounce back here from the Jazz at home. 8* Utah | |||||||
12-21-16 | CS-Northridge v. Boise State -12 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 60 m | Show |
10* Boise State (9:00 ET): This time of year, the faithful on the Boise State campus are typically more concerned with the school's upcoming bowl game. This year, the Broncos' football team will be facing Baylor, next Tuesday, in the Motel 6 Cactus Bowl. But there's also a basketball game taking place on campus tonight and that's against a struggling Cal State Northridge team that is ripe to be routed. I've successfully targeted many of these Big West bottom feeders during this incredible College Hoops run I'm on and one could make the argument that the Matadors are the worst that conference has to offer. They come into tonight only 3-8 SU/2-7 ATS on the season and they've yet to win on the road. Lay the points. A 100-95 loss to Bethesda on Friday was certainly not a "good look" for Northridge. That's a NCCAA (National Christian College Athletic Association) school for those keeping track. Thus, one could say the Matadors don't have a "prayer" here (heyyyyyy-o!). By the way, that game did not got into overtime. CSN actually allowed 100 pts in regulation to a non D-I school, at home! Bethesda led the entire second half and by as many as 10 at one point. It would be one thing if the Matadors had been playing well previously, but they had not. Two of their three wins this year came in games where they were favored and those wins were both by three points or less. (The other was against a non DI school). So calling for a "bounce back" in this situation seems fruitless. Boise State made a strong accounting for itself its last time out, waxing Idaho State 82-59 as 15.5-pt chalk. Ironically, Idaho State is also one of the three teams that Cal State Northridge beat this year. But the Matadors won by only three over the Bengals. Boise State has beaten SMU, a good team, on this floor. They've also gone to Oregon, a top 20 team, and lost by only five. In eight of their 10 games, the Broncos have had the lead at halftime. This is a strong home team as well w/ a 41-1 SU run vs. non-conference foes. Overall, they are 59-8 SU L67 home games. Three-point defense is huge for the Broncos as opponents are only making 4.5 per game against them at a 29% clip. In other words, this is a total mismatch and I look for BSU to end its non-conference slate on a high note. Cal State Northridge may also again be w/o Aaron Parks (undisclosed), who is one of their four double digits scorers. That would really hurt a team w/ little depth. 10* Boise State | |||||||
12-20-16 | Fresno State v. Oregon -14 | 63-75 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
8* Oregon (11:00 ET): Oregon, now ranked #20 in the polls (fair ranking), has lost only two times all year. One of those came in their lone "true" road game, at Baylor, all the way back on November 15th. The other came six days later vs. Georgetown in Maui, a game they fell way behind early, only to have a furious second half rally come up just shy. There should be no need for a rally Tuesday evening in Eugene as Fresno State comes to campus. Given what we've seen from the Ducks thus far, I have every reason to believe that this will end up being another blowout adding to their already impressive average margin of victory (+24.6 PPG) here at home. Fresno State, playing its second road game in four days, is off a tough two-point win over Pacific. I question what the Bulldogs have left in the tank here. Lay the points. Having covered that last game (barely) as 1.5-point favorites, FSU is now 4-0 ATS on the road and 5-1 ATS overall. But the competition hasn't been all that impressive and they've actually lost a pair of non-lined games to Prairie View A&M and Cal State Bakersfield. Prairie View A&M is among the worst teams in the entire country and the CS-Bakersfield game was on the road. Since then the Bulldogs have won six of seven, the only loss coming by three at Marquette, but this will be their toughest foe yet. That game on Saturday vs. Pacific saw the Bulldogs nail a pair of free throws in the closing seconds as they erased what had been a five-point deficit w/ just 1:15 to go. Oregon comes into tonight riding a 32-game home win streak, which is third longest in the nation. They are currently w/o leading scorer Chris Boucher, but Jordan Bell more than picked up the slack w/ 16 pts and 12 rebounds in the 20-point win over UNLV (which took place in Portland) Saturday night. Remember, this Ducks team not only won the Pac 12 last year, they reached the Elite 8. Fresno State has NEVER won in Eugene and has not beaten a Top 25 squad since 2002. Should be an easy one for the Ducks. 8* Oregon | |||||||
12-20-16 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | Top | 102-119 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): The Clippers lost on Sunday afternoon, at Washington, 117-110 as a 5.5-point favorite. I've said it many times before, but those random non-nationally televised Sunday afternoon games sure seem to always favor the home team, don't they. For the Clips, that outright loss capped an 0-3 ATS trek through the Southeast. Previously, they had failed to cover in wins over Orlando and Miami. The fact that it was their third road game in five nights also helps explain why the team lost outright in D.C. But Tuesday night, they're back home and playing a team that is w/o rest, that being Denver. I see this as being a "get well game" for Los Angeles, who should roll to victory despite not having Blake Griffin. Lay the points. Denver got me last night, beating Dallas 117-107 and just covering the 8.5-point spread. It was a game they trailed early, by as many as 12. I still stand behind the play, but let's remember that Dallas is among the worst teams in the league. The Clippers are among the very best. The entirety of the Nuggets' current three-game win streak came at home against below average opponents. Their last road trip not only saw them lose at Dallas, but go 2-4 SU overall w/ one of the wins coming at Philadelphia's expense. This is a very bad team defensively (26th in efficiency) and they are not going to shoot 57% from the floor again, like they did last night vs. Dallas. The Clippers started the season on an other-worldly pace in defensive efficiency, but have since regressed some to 5th place overall. Still, that's a good ranking to have. They also rank fifth in offensive efficiency, making them the only team besides Golden State to rank in the top five at both ends of the floor. Here at home, they are outscoring teams by 10.6 points per game. I would certainly have them as a double-digit fave for this one. Anything less is a bargain in my estimation as the Nuggets are bound to give up a ton of points in this one. 10* LA Clippers | |||||||
12-20-16 | Richmond v. James Madison +3.5 | Top | 75-55 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
10* James Madison (7:00 ET): Very little has gone right for James Madison so far this season. Case in point, they couldn't even manage a cover (as underdogs) against Appalachian State on Saturday despite the game going into OT. The Dukes were outscored 14-2 in the extra period, thereby ensuring they would NOT cover the 3.5-point spread. While close throughout, JMU led at the half and was up three w/ just six seconds remaining in regulation. So they were actually outscored 17-2 over the final 5:06. The loss leaves the Dukes at a rather ugly 1-9 SU this season as well as 1-7 ATS. The lone cover came at old CAA rival George Mason back on 11.26 while the lone SU win came at the expense of non-board team Longwood on 12.3 That all being said, I see some value on the Dukes in this spot as they get set to host Richmond. Obviously, they should feel somewhat "robbed" of the cover their last time out. Not only that, but this team has lost four other games by seven points or less, so it's not as if they're being routinely blown out. They also get to return home for the 1st time since 11.23. That's nearly a full month, if you're keeping score at home. This team has played just three home games thus far and while I faded them in an ugly loss to Rice early in the year, we've now come full circle. They're now hosting a team that they've beaten outright each of the last two seasons! I'm not sure that Richmond deserves to be favored on the road, even against a 1-9 opponent. The Spiders are also in off a loss, theirs coming at home to Texas Tech. That will be a tough loss to get over as TT is a good team and Richmond had the lead at half. But they were down by as many as 17 in the second half before rallying. Also, there was a scary situation with freshman Grant Golden collapsing on the bench. Now playing as a road favorite for the 1st time in 2016, this is a tough spot for the Spiders. They are just 1-2 ATS as favorites so far this season, including an outright loss to another old CAA rival of JMU's, that being Old Dominion. The Spiders are just 2-11 ATS in the month of December the L2 years and have lost outright three of the past four times they've been road chalk of 3.5 to 6 pts. 10* James Madison | |||||||
12-19-16 | Mavs +8.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-117 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
8* Dallas (9:05 ET): For the most part, it has been a miserable season thus far for the once proud Mavericks. Perhaps Mark Cuban is spending too much time worrying about "Shark Tank," because the roster of his basketball team is the weakest its been since buying the organization. However, while the team is still tied (w/ Philadelphia) for the worst overall record in the league at 7-20 straight up, there have been some positive developments of late. Such as blowing out Sacramento last night, 99-79, for their third win in the last six games. They are 4-2 ATS over that span, including a close loss to Utah in a national TV game Friday night. Here, they drop in class to take on a Denver team that I simply don't believe is worthy of laying this much weight. Take the points. Since returning home from a six-game trip out East, the Nuggets have responded w/ B2B double digit victories over Portland and New York. Those teams are among the very worst defensively in the entire league. Dallas' issue is on the offensive end where they rank 27th in the league in efficiency. Sure enough, they've held three of the last four opponents to 95 points or less. Denver, meanwhile, is 25th in defensive efficiency and was fortunate that those last two opponents are among the select group below them in that department. In each of the last four games, the Nuggets have given up at least 112 points. None of those games went to overtime. Again, those are not the kind of defensive numbers you'd want to see when laying points in this price range. One of those four games was a 112-92 loss at Dallas. One could make the argument that it was the Nuggets' worst game of the season. Whatever happened there, I certainly think that the oddsmakers have failed to adjust for this rematch as they basically are saying both teams are the same since then. I believe the Mavs have steadily improved as is evident by last night's performance. Six players scored in double figures and defensively it was season-best effort in terms of points allowed. The Mavs never trailed in the game. I can only assume that like the Wizards, we are seeing a team undervalued due to being in the second of B2B games. 8* Dallas | |||||||
12-19-16 | Colorado v. Air Force +8 | Top | 75-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* Air Force (9:00 ET): These are in-state foes, remember. Colorado has won and covered its last three visits here to Colorado Springs and also beat the AFA last season in Boulder, 81-70, albeit they failed to cash as 15-pt chalk. For this year's matchup, I do not like the setup for the Buffaloes perspective. This will be their second game in three days and while the last one was a "cupcake," only beating Fort Hayes State by 10 points is a bit of a troubling sight. Meanwhile, the Flyboys have been off since December 10th when they lost here at home to Denver. That was their first home loss of the year after starting 6-0 SU, so grabbing the points seems ideal and a nice value. Air Force has lost five of six, but most of the losses have been close. The AFA has run into some red-hot shooting opponents of late, most notably Denver, who finished the game at a blistering 56.9% from the field.The Pioneers got a career-best effort from Daniel Amigo, who finished w/ 33 points. It was a similar story on 12.7 at Army as the Cadets shot better than 50 percent. But the time off should help shore up the defense and quite frankly Colorado isn't a good shooting team anyway. The Buffs are barely above 40% from the field the L5 games, which cost them games vs. Colorado State and BYU. Earlier, I spoke of the fact that the AFA has played well at home this year. They are averaging 85.6 PPG here and outscoring opponents by 16.7 points per game. They are also 8-2 ATS the L10 times taking the court w/ at least seven days rest. Colorado HC Tad Davis did not mince words concerning his team's performance Saturday, the second half in particular, despite coming out on the winning end. "This team has two things going for it right now," Boyle said. "Number one, they own the most-disappointing loss in that seven-year span, the Colorado State game a few weeks ago. And now they also can add to that, that they own the most-disappointing win." Beating a D-II school by only 10 pts at home, following a long break, is certainly not a "good look." Yes, CU led by as many as 21 in the first half. But they barely outrebounded Fort Hayes State and allowed a player (Rob Davis) to score 29 pts after halftime. The Buffs are just 7-19 SU in "true" road games the L3 seasons. 10* Air Force | |||||||
12-19-16 | Pistons +3 v. Bulls | Top | 82-113 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
8* Detroit (8:05 ET): Something I failed to mention in the Washington-Indiana analysis is just how log-jammed the Eastern Conference is at the present time. After Cleveland and Toronto, there are nine teams separated by just 2.5 games in the standings, all but one (15-12 Boston) within two games over .500 either way. Like Washington & Indiana, count Detroit & Chicago among that group. The two Central Division rivals meet Monday night in the Second City and despite the fact both teams appear to be on a downward trajectory, I favor the Pistons in this one. They have lost B2B games as favorites, ironically to Washington and Indiana, but have typically shown a strong propensity to bounce back from such defeats, going 24-9 ATS when off an outright loss as a favorite the L3 seasons. The Bulls have lost three in a row straight up and are just 1-7 ATS the L8 games. Take the points. I have to admit that Chicago's strong play at the outset of the season really surprised me. I did not like the offseason that they had and though the Dwyane Wade signing was completely overrated as it did not really "fit" the roster. Early on, offensive efficiency was shockingly good, but the team has since regressed in that department, hitting a new low in Friday's 95-69 home loss to Milwaukee. In that game, the team shot a dismal 30.4% from the floor. Obviously, it is highly unlikely that they'll be that bad again, but to what degree do they improve? There are major questions surrounding HC Fred Hoiberg's tenure here as it's looking more and more like he was a lousy choice to succeed Tom Thibodeau. Meanwhile, I have far more faith in Pistons' HC Stan Van Gundy to right his ship. Remember, I had this team in a road win over Dallas last Wednesday. Since then, they've lost B2B games by double digits. That prompted the dreaded "players only meeting," but unlike in Chicago, I do not feel there is any kind of serious disconnect between the players and the coach. Detroit beat Chicago earlier this year, 102-91 (at home) as 5.5-pt favorites. Not sure why there would be any kind of positive adjustment by the linesmakers for the Bulls here, given that they are playing worse now. 8* Detroit | |||||||
12-19-16 | Wizards +5.5 v. Pacers | Top | 105-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:05 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, the Wizards were my pick to win the Southeast Division prior to the start of the year (expected a tight battle between them and Charlotte). But the season got off to an awful start for the Wiz, leaving myself (and many others I'm sure!) to re-evaluate just where this team stood. Well, all of a sudden, they're starting to play well as is evident by three consecutive SU wins, all as underdogs. Yesterday, they beat the Clippers at home, 117-110, not needing the +5.5 the linesmakers were giving them. They are now 5-1 SU/ATS L6 and I can only assume it is the fact they are playing the second of back to back games that they are getting this many points against the Pacers. Because I have the Wizards rated as the better team here. Take the points. Indiana is also off an upset win, theirs coming back on Saturday when they went to Detroit and beat the Pistons, 105-90 as 4.5-pt dogs. That win enabled them to avoid what would have been a winless road trip as they'd previously dropped games at Miami and New Orleans. Indiana is another team I'd classify as an "early season disappointment," far more so than Washington at this point. One thing I'd like to point out is that the Pacers shouldn't go into this game thinking they'll be dealing w/ another cold-shooting opponent. The Pistons shot just 38.1% against them on Saturday, but the Wizards have shot better than 50% in every game during the three-game win streak. Bradley Beal scored 41 points yesterday. In evaluating these teams, they grade out as remarkably similar w/ the Wiz just slightly better. So, again, I think the road team is being undervalued due to being in the second of B2B road games. Admittedly, it's a role that hasn't treated them well thus far in 2016, but note that Indiana is 0-4 both SU and ATS coming off a SU dog win this season. It would seem that the game taking place at Bankers Life Fieldhouse would favor the Pacers given that they are 10-4 SU at home and the Wizards are 2-8 SU on the road. But the road team won all three head to head meetings last year. In a battle this even, taking the points is the way to go, especially w/ the hotter team. 8* Washington | |||||||
12-19-16 | Central Michigan +13 v. Tulsa | Top | 10-55 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 22 m | Show |
8* Central Michigan (2:30 ET): Central Michigan has not won a Bowl Game since 2012, the Little Caesar's over Western Kentucky, 24-21 as six-point underdogs. Two years later, they had a rematch in the Bahamas w/ WKU, which featured one of the wildest finishes in bowl history, and lost 49-48 as three-point dogs. Last year, they drew a tough assignment in the Quick Lane Bowl against Minnesota and lost 21-14, failing to cover as four-point dogs. That, coupled w/ the fact this team did not end the regular season well, should have them supremely motivated here in the Miami Beach Bowl vs. Tulsa. Sure, the Golden Hurricane are looking for their first bowl win since 2012 as well. But, it's difficult to like them as DD favorites in this spot. Take the points. It's easy to forget now, but at one point Central Michigan stood at 3-0 SU (w/ a win at Oklahoma State) and found itself favored playing on the road against a Power 5 school (Virginia). From that point on, the Chippewas finished just 2-7 ATS at the pay window and lost a couple of "toss up" games outright. The most embarrassing was a 27-21 defeat in Mt. Pleasant at the hands of Kent State, who came in as a 12-pt dog. There were also two times that the Chips closed as one-point road favorites (at Miami, E Michigan) only to lose. Both of those teams seemed to have a bit of "lady luck" riding on their shoulders though. Yes, I know the early season win over Oklahoma State was controversial, but regardless that's still a Top 25 team they were competitive against. This is a senior-laden team that will have a bad taste in its mouth from the way the reg season ended. "We want to win, get a bowl ring, hold a trophy -- something we haven't been able to do," senior quarterback Cooper Rush said. "It's definitely on our mind." The only game CMU was getting more points than they are here was the Oklahoma State game. Both head coaches here are in the second year w/ their respective programs. For Philip Montgomery and Tulsa, there was major improvement this season. Last year, they were double digit underdogs against a clearly overvalued Va Tech side that was playing in Frank Beamer's swan song. It was a wild 55-52 loss in the Independence Bowl and that surprisingly strong showing bled over into a 9-3 SU campaign in 2016. The Golden Hurricane do have the #6 offense nationally in terms of yardage and have a chance to finish w/ a 3,000 yd QB, two 1,000 yd RBs and two 1,000 yd WR's. But I suspect those gaudy stats are what have led them to be the overvalued side in this year's bowl. Sure, the Golden Hurricane's only three losses came to Ohio State, Houston and Navy. But they didn't really beat anyone of substance either. They were just 3-3 SU on the road (as opposed to 6-0 SU at home). Honestly, I see a Central Michigan outright win as a more likely result than a Tulsa blowout win. 8* Central Michigan | |||||||
12-18-16 | Patriots v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 16-3 | Loss | -125 | 65 h 13 m | Show |
10* Denver (4:25 ET): For the third time in the last two seasons, New England will visit Mile High as a favorite. They lost outright both times in 2015, the most notable being the AFC Championship Game. Given the current respective trajectories, however, it would appear as if only the Pats have a realistic shot at getting back to that game. The Broncos come in off their second loss by a field goal in the last three weeks and are fighting for their playoff lives. New England, on the other hand, seems likely to once again be the top seed heading into the postseason. This is a short week for Brady, Belichick and company, so considering that and the sense of desperation that exists here for Denver, I'll take the points. The Broncos were carried by their defense en route to last year's Super Bowl win and that unit has essentially remained just as strong in 2016. Particularly against the pass, where they are #1 in the league, allowing less than 200 YPG. Last week, they held Marcus Mariota below 100 yds through the air, but still lost due to their own offensive ineptitude. Incredibly, they ran for 18 yards on only nine carries. But the bulk of the criticism still falls on QB Trevor Siemian, who has failed to even live up to the low standard set by Peyton Manning last year. Given the fact that New England ranks #3 in scoring defense (17.6 PPG allowed), you might conclude that Siemian is likely to struggle again, but that number of points allowed is somewhat misleading considering the Patriots are 10th in yardage allowed. They've benefited from facing a number of terrible QB's this year, but Joe Flacco threw for 300+ yds against the Monday night. Given their strength resides in defending the pass, rather than the run, I feel the Broncos defense matches up pretty well w/ the Patriots offense. The majority of the games where New England has put up substantial rushing totals, it's been due to building a big lead. I certainly do not envision that scenario playing out this week. Also important to note is that under HC Gary Kubiak, the Broncos are 8-2-1 ATS as dogs w/ eight outright wins. That includes a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS at home. Tom Brady is just 2-7 SU/ATS all-time here in Denver. 10* Denver | |||||||
12-18-16 | Raiders v. Chargers +3 | Top | 19-16 | Push | 0 | 65 h 13 m | Show |
10* San Diego (4:25 ET): Oakland has undergone quite the transformation this year as they are most definitely a "public" team, never more so than this week where we find them laying a short number on the road against San Diego. But despite what the records say here, these teams are pretty even w/ the home dog actually the better team in some respects! The reason for the gap between the Raiders and Chargers in the AFC West standings has as much to do w/ luck as anything else as the former has had it in spades throughout 2016 while the latter has had basically none. With the expectation that Oakland, off a 10-day break, is likely to simply "bounce back" from only it's third loss of the season, I'll fade the public and take the points. In addition to leading the league in turnover margin (+15), Oakland has enjoyed a tremendous amount of "luck" in close games w/ a 7-2 record in one-score games (decided by 8 pts or less). One of those losses occurred last Thursday night when for a second time this year, they fell to the Chiefs, this time 21-13. Besides Kansas City, the only other team to beat the Raiders this year is Atlanta and that came all the way back in Week 2. As impressive as that may sound, the Silver and Black are just 20th in the league in yards per game differential, having actually been outgained over the course of the season. That ranking is actually below San Diego, who has outgained its opponents. Though the franchise has clearly taken a step in the right direction under HC Jack Del Rio, seeing them as a road favorite is still pretty rare. Meanwhile, San Diego has the most one-score losses of any team in the league over the last two seasons (9). One of those took place in Oakland back in Week 5 when they blew a second half lead and lost 34-31. I was fortunate enough to have the Chargers +3.5, but a botched FG attempt at the end of the game essentially set the tone for this very disappointing season, which has seen almost unprecedented injury misfortune and many games where the team has blown a lead in the second half. Last week at Carolina actually marked the first game all year where SD did not hold a lead at any point in the game! Not only that, they've had a second half lead in every one of those games before LW. The underdog in this AFC West rivalry is an incredible 14-1 ATS the L15 meetings! 10* San Diego | |||||||
12-18-16 | Gonzaga v. Tennessee +10.5 | Top | 86-76 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (4:00 ET): It's no secret that I've been targeting the rapidly dwindling number of unbeaten teams left in the country. That number is still six after Saturday, though the weakest of the bunch (USC) got a major scare from 22-point underdog Troy (who I was on) as did UCLA and Creighton. Aside from defending National Champion Villanova, I don't believe any of the other unbeatens are among the very best in the nation, though everyone except USC belongs in the top 25. One of those teams is Gonzaga, who takes the court for the first time in eight days. The Zags have yet to play a "true" road game and while this one isn't on Tennessee's campus, you still have to figure it will be quite the partisan crowd in Nashville at the Bridgestone Arena (home of the NHL's Predators). I'm taking the points. Though Gonzaga arrives here at 10-0 SU and off three consecutive covers, they have had some close calls thus far. Three times they've won by seven points or less, against Iowa State, Florida and Arizona. Those games were all contested at far more "neutral" sites than this one. Last time we saw them, they drubbed poor Akron 61-43, a game where the Zips shot a miserable 26.7% from the field. It was a similar story for Gonzaga's previous opponent, Washington, who was held to 30.4%. Fortunately for our sake, Tennessee comes in shooting 46.9% for the year. They've been above 45% in each of the L6 games, four times making more than they missed. At the same time, the Vols have done an excellent job defending, the three-point line in particular. None of their L5 opponents have shot 45% from the field and for the year teams are shooting below 30% from behind the arc against them. Tennessee is no stranger to playing elite teams this year as this will be the fourth Top 20 foe that they've faced. They're a perfect 3-0 ATS against Oregon, Wisconsin and North Carolina and actually led the Tar Heels for much of the second half, in Chapel Hill, last Saturday. While Gonzaga's been off, the Vols have played twice this week, blowing out both Tennessee Tech and Lipscomb. This is a revenge spot as well from an eight-point loss in Seattle last year. 10* Tennessee | |||||||
12-18-16 | Packers v. Bears +5.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 62 h 48 m | Show |
10* Chicago (1:00 ET): Expect the public to be back on the Packers' bandwagon here after GB thrashed Seattle LW, 38-10, a rare instance of Aaron Rodgers being a home dog. It was the Pack's third consecutive win and cover as they're now back in the playoff hunt at 7-6 overall. But as impressive as that final score may have looked last week, Rodgers and company were clearly aided by a +6 turnover margin as they were actually slightly outgained (354-330) in the contest. Weather is expected to be a major factor in NFL Wk 15, nowhere more so than here in Chicago where temperatures are expected to be below zero. That's not good news for the calf injury Rodgers is currently dealing with and I look for the Packers to struggle here. Take the points. Chicago is 3-10 SU and starting Matt Barkley at QB. Yet, this is by no means a terrible team. In fact, I'm going on the record right now and guaranteeing they will be one of the most improved teams in 2017. As for what they've done so far this season, note they are actually outgaining opponents by an average of 17.7 YPG, which is the 10th best such differential in the league. It's actually better than Green Bay, who is "only" +10.2. In terms of yards per play differential, the Bears are actually fifth in the league, a far cry from GB's #21 ranking. Barkley has actually done a pretty remarkable job in relief of the injured Jay Cutler and will be getting All-Pro WR Alshon Jeffery back from a four-game suspension this week. If anything, Barkley's numbers should be better as he's gotten burned by multiple dropped passes. The defense is now #7 in the league in yards per game allowed. Overall, the team is on a four-game ATS win streak. Recent history has seen the Packers dominate this long-standing division rivalry w/ wins in 13 of the past 16 games including six straight here at Soldier Field. But the Bears have been better at home this year (2-0 vs. NFC North) and Green Bay is only 2-4 SU on the road. Rodgers has reportedly missed practice time due to the calf injury. Historically, he has not performed as well in cold conditions and this may be the coldest game in his career. Typically, the adverse conditions should enable the underdog to keep the game close. Note that when these teams met at Lambeau Field back in October, the line was only Pack -7. It appears as if there's been an overadjustment due to Green Bay's recent form, last week specifically. 10* Chicago | |||||||
12-17-16 | Troy State +21.5 v. USC | Top | 77-82 | Win | 100 | 22 h 54 m | Show |
8* Troy (10:30 ET): With two weeks to go in the calendar year, six unbeaten teams remain in College Basketball. One of them, USC, is significantly worse than the rest. (Admittedly, Villanova is also appreciably better than the other four). Therefore, I'll fade the Trojans here against an opponent of their same namesake. Though part of the Las Vegas Classic, note this is still a home game for USC, who has now cracked the top 25 in the AP Poll. But they still haven't cracked my own top 25, nor are they that close to doing so. (Top 35 is more appropriate). Despite missing Bennie Boatright, they still haven't been tested recently, but I'll call for that to change in this late Saturday night start. Charles Buggs is also listed as questionable here w/ a hamstring injury. Troy has taken advantage of a pretty light schedule here in December in rolling to three consecutive victories over non-lined foes. Last time out, these Trojans blew out Point University 114-52, the second time they've topped 100 pts against a non-DI foe this year. Scoring has dipped rather dramatically when they take their act out on the road, but this is still a big pointspread for a team that has lost by more than 12 pts only one time this year. A 1-5 ATS record has just as much to do w/ this spread as does USC's surprising start and as we so often see, this confluence has led to an overreaction by the marketplace. In my estimation, this spread should be several points lower. Boatright was considered to be one of the best power forwards in the nation, so his loss is significant. Buggs is not really a major contributor, but his potential absence still thins the roster. Granted, USC had no trouble w/ Pepperdine on Sunday (won 93-67), their only game in the last two weeks. But I can't see a duplication of their red-hot shooting from that game (56.6%!), nor is Troy likely to shoot the ball as poorly as Pepper | |||||||
12-17-16 | Southern Miss -6 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 53 h 56 m | Show |
8* Southern Miss (9:00 ET): The prevailing storyline here is likely to be LA Lafayette's 4-0 SU and ATS record in New Orleans Bowls, having previously appeared in this game every year from 2011-14. After a one-year hiatus (went 4-8 SU LY and thus were not bowl eligible), the Ragin Cajuns will again conclude their season in the Superdome. The opponent this time is an old foe, Southern Miss, who holds a 38-11-1 all-time record in head-to-head matchups. That includes an eight-game win streak from 1993 to 2008 (last meeting). While I'm sure the Ragin Cajuns are happy to be back in a bowl game, I like Southern Miss here as they're drawing a much easier assignment compared to LY's bowl matchup where they had to face Washington in the Heart of Dallas Bowl. The Golden Eagles will be motivated to earn their first bowl victory since 2011. Lay the points. Southern Miss did not have a particularly strong finish to the regular season, at one point failing to cover seven consecutive games. But they gained bowl eligibility w/ a 39-24 upset of C-USA West Champ La Tech (as 15.5-pt dogs!) in the reg season finale. The key to that win and the play here is the presence of QB Nick Mullins, who 1st year HC Jay Hopson called "100 percent" for this game. Despite missing significant time, first w/ a broken thumb and then a concussion, Mullins still threw for 22 TD passes and nearly 3,000 yards. In helping engineer the upset of Louisiana Tech, he threw for 342 yards and three touchdowns. After jumping from three wins in 2014 to nine last year, regression (in terms of record) was inevitable for the Golden Eagles, especially w/ a 1st time HC (Hopson) taking over for Todd Monken (now on Tampa Bay Bucs' staff). But something that absolutely must be considered here is this team outgained every opponent it played this year, save for one (LSU!) and also won at Kentucky 44-35. With Mullins back, this is a totally different team. Meanwhile, La Lafayette needed a strong close to become bowl eligible and that's what they got w/ three wins in the last four games (4-0 ATS), punctuated by a blowout of rival LA Monroe, 30-3, in the finale. But their only two wins against bowl teams were South Alabama and Arkansas State, both at home by five points. I say USM has a huge edge at QB here w/ Mullins vs. ULL's Anthony Jennings. Over the course of the season, ULL was outscored. Though this game is being played in the state of Louisiana, Southern Miss figures to still have plenty of crowd support present. 8* Southern Miss | |||||||
12-17-16 | Dolphins v. Jets +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 20 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:25 ET): To me, this game has "upset" written all over it. Yes, I know the last time they played at home, the Jets completely embarrassed themselves in a 41-10 loss to the Colts. But they bounced back nicely w/ a come from behind win LW, though admittedly it was against the 49ers. I'll still maintain the Jets are better than their record, something I cannot say for Miami, who is only 24th in my own personal power rankings. Last week's 26-23 win over Arizona did not come w/o casualty for the Dolphins as they lost starting QB Ryan Tannehill and are now down to career backup Matt Moore for this all-important encounter. Even worse for the 'Fins is that the weather conditions are expected to be unfavorable Sat night and this is a team that's gone just 1-9 SU on turf the L3 seasons including 0-3 in 2016. Take the points. What was so odd about that Jets "no-show" two weeks back on MNF is they've largely been a competitive football team this year. They were coming off a near upset of the Patriots at home the week prior and the two weeks before that saw them lose by only four points or less. One was at Miami, 27-23. That was a game they outgained the opposition 331-274, but succumbed to a -2 turnover differential and the GW score was a 96-yard kickoff return w/ just 5:15 remaining, right after the Jets had taken their first lead since the 1st quarter. Typically, the Jets have found success vs. Miami through the years, going 36-16-3 ATS the past 55 meetings! Something else to consider is that the Dolphins have not swept the season series against the Jets - either SU or ATS - since 2009. New York has covered five of its last six AFC East home games. The other big thing to consider here is the dropoff from Tannehill to Moore. There's a reason that no team comes knocking on Moore's door to be their starting QB and that's because he's not very good. This will be his first start in five years, the last one ironically coming against the Jets. Yes, Bryce Petty is the starting QB for the Jets, but he appears to have at least developed a rapport w/ rookie Robby Anderson. Despite the very different won-loss records here, the Jets actually own the better differential in terms of yards per game (Miami is an ugly 28th). With subpar metrics and a backup QB, I don't like the idea of Miami laying points on the road at all. That's a role they are not only 0-4 ATS in the last four tries, but 0-4 straight up as well. 10* NY Jets | |||||||
12-17-16 | Cal Poly v. California -17.5 | Top | 55-81 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
10* California (8:00 ET): Last Saturday, Cal was my 10* Game of the Week and the Bears treated me well w/ a 86-61 win over UC Irvine. They haven't played since and a week later we find them drawing another overmatched Big West opponent. That would be Cal Poly, who has said "goodbye" to home for the remainder of 2016 as the Mustangs are embarking on a six-game trip which will lead into the start of conference play. Granted, this isn't a long trip, but it's a daunting one given that Cal is now at full strength and looking good. Cal Poly has already lost to one Pac 12 team, Arizona State, by 22 earlier in the year. Cal is a significantly better team than ASU, so lay the points here. Cal Poly, like Cal, was off all week due to exams. Unlike the Bears, they lost their last game. It was a double-digit defeat at the hands of Fresno State to start this six-game trip. Again, that's a much inferior squad compared to what they'll face here. The Mustangs trailed by as many as 20 points last Saturday and matched their lowest offensive output of the season (59 points) due to some pretty dreadful shooting (19 of 51 from the field). It was the second time in three games that they scored only 59 pts, which is not a good sign here against a Cal team playing excellent defense. Extended rest has never helped the Mustangs in the past as they're just 1-6 ATS the last seven tries taking the court w/ at least five or six days rest. They had been off a whole week prior to playing Fresno State as well. Cal has allowed more than 65 points in a game just once all season. Here in Berkeley, where they are undefeated (7-0, winning by an avg of 17 PPG), they are holding teams to 59 PPG on 36.7% shooting. So it promises to be a long night for Cal Poly on the offensive end here. This is a big game as Cal can set a new school record w/ a 27th consecutive victory at home! As I mentioned in my writeup last week, the Bears are now healthier than they've been all season. Having Ivan Raab also helps as the preseason All-American is averaging 14.9 points and 9.3 rebounds per game. But it is freshman Charlie Moore now leading the way w/ 17.6 PPG. The Bears have three double-digit scorers and are a top 16 team nationally in rebounding and points allowed. This shapes up as another mismatch for them at Haas Pavillion. This team will be a threat in the Pac 12 this year. 10* California | |||||||
12-16-16 | Hornets +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 88-96 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
10* Charlotte (7:35 ET): The Eastern Conference pecking order has two clear top teams (Cleveland and Toronto) and a large grouping of contenders below them. These two are part of that large grouping. Currently, Charlotte is in third place despite having lost their last three games. Right behind them (as in one-half game) is Boston, who likewise is on a three-game losing streak. So something will have to give here and while Kemba Walker is injured and unlikely to play, I still see the Hornets staying within the number. This is a revenge spot for the road team, who lost to the Celtics at home early in the year. The road team has enjoyed an unusual amount of success when these teams meet, as in four consecutive SU victories. Thus, I'll take the points. Charlotte figured to lose the first-game of this current five-game trek as they were in Cleveland. Sure enough, lose they did, 116-105 as eight-point underdogs. But they were favored at both Indiana and Washington, games they also lost SU. As a team, they shot the ball well at Washington (51.4%), but unfortunately the Wizards did the same and there were also an uncharacteristic 18 turnovers from the Hornets. Note that Walker did play in that game, so that was not the reason for the turnovers. Walker is missing this game for a "personal reason" and Ramon Sessions will start in his place. Even w/o Walker, I expect the good shooting from the Washington game to carryover here as the team is still only at 42.2% the L5 games, which is well below their season average. It's pretty remarkable how even these teams seem to be on paper. Both average exactly 104.3 PPG. Charlotte allows the same number of PPG on the road as Boston does at home (103.7). However, overall, the Hornets are allowing 0.7 PPG less for the year. They also average exactly one point per game more on the road compared to the Celtics at home. Thus, I am left to assume that tonight's larger than expected spread is a byproduct of Walker's absence and Walker's absence alone. It is an overreaction in my estimation and I question what Boston may have left in the tank here after such a difficult stretch of games. 10* Charlotte | |||||||
12-16-16 | Florida Atlantic v. Miami (Fla) -19 | Top | 56-76 | Win | 100 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
10* Miami (FL): These two Floridian schools are both coming off long breaks (exams) and big wins. The last time we saw Miami FL, they were drubbing a clearly overmatched South Carolina State squad, 82-46 (non-lined game). That same day (December 6th), Florida Atlantic pulled of a major upset in beating Ohio State, in Columbus, as 20-pt underdogs. While the Owls have been competitive this year (three losses by four points or less), I feel the upset of OSU has created a situation where they're getting far too much respect from the market here. Miami is a better team than the Buckeyes and thus deserving of a higher price range. Yes, some adjustment must be made for FAU's win, but this would be a classic overadjustment. Lay the points. Florida Atlantic has played three "true" road games to this point and all have been decided by two points or less! That's two losses (Hawaii & UT Martin) plus the stunner in Columbus. How did the Owls upset the Buckeyes, you ask? Well, first let's point out the game went into overtime. FAU had to rally back from an 11-point second half deficit just to get the extra five minutes of game time and they were clearly aided by a bevy of Buckeyes' turnovers and missed three-pointers. The key to the upset, as it often is in this sport, was beyond the three-point arc where FAU went 10 of 25 and Ohio State was just 4 of 20. Perhaps the long break between games somewhat mitigates the concept of a "letdown" taking place here, but I still think the Owls are drastically overmatched heading into Coral Gables. The U is not ranked currently, but to me they are on the fringes of the Top 25. (For the record, they are in the "others receiving votes" category). Their only two losses this year have been to Iowa State and Florida, both on a neutral court. Those are both Top 20 teams, IMO, and they were actually favored over ISU (small dog vs. Florida). Those two losses begat a four-game ATS slide, so many may be wary of laying this kind of weight, but note that the 'Canes just missed out on covering similar DD spreads vs. Wofford and Rutgers. Teams are shooting just 36.2% against The U for the season. Meanwhile, The U is shooting 47%. FAU can enjoy the hiring of Lane Kiffin because this game will not go well. 10* Miami FL | |||||||
12-15-16 | Murray State +9.5 v. Ole Miss | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* Murray State (8:00 ET): We have a relatively "short" number that a SEC school is laying against a so-called "mid-major." It's for good reason. The fact that Ole Miss checked in at #26 in the RPI heading into their last game (80-75 loss at Va Tech) shows just how flawed that particular metric is. The far more reliable KenPom ratings have them 93rd, which is about where Vegas has them as well. That game at Virginia Tech, the Rebels' first "true" road date of the season, saw them trail the entire second half and fall behind by as many as 14. Defensively, there are major issues in Oxford and I think those will cost them tonight laying this number against an always dangerous Murray State squad. This may not be the finest edition of Murray State basketball that we've seen through the years, but the Racers are deadly in this spot nonetheless. Yes, they've failed to cover their last five lined games, losing outright twice as a favorite. But they were at least able to build some confidence by blowing out NAIA school Bethel, 103-65 on Monday. While the Racers have yet to win B2B games this season, this will be the most points they've been catching so far. They covered as 9-point pups in the second game of the year, at Middle Tennessee, who is a better team that Ole Miss. Don't believe me? The Blue Raiders beat the Rebels 77-62 in Oxford on November 30th! That loss to Middle Tennessee is one of three for Murray State this year to come by six points or less (11 pts total). In nine games this season, Ole Miss has allowed at least eight made three-pointers eight times. Overall, they are giving up over 80 PPG. There's been only one game all year where they didn't allow at least 77 points. That's good for the underdog here as the Racers come in averaging 80 PPG and that's even after the dreadful shooting performance last week at Evansville. Ole Miss allowed Va Tech to sink 10 three-pointers on Sunday. Note that Murray State's Ohio Valley Conference rival UT Martin came here to Oxford and nearly won outright (as 17-pt dogs), losing by just three. That's one of three wins by five points or less so far for the Rebels. Murray State, while yet to play a Power 5 team, has scored at least 73 points in every game but one, that being the disaster that occurred vs. Evansville. Ole Miss has covered only four times this season, twice in losses where they were the underdogs and twice as a fave of 4.5 pts or less. The number is too high here. 10* Murray State | |||||||
12-15-16 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Arizona (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Coyotes +1.5. Going against the Maple Leafs w/ an additional 1.5 goals "in our pocket" is not w/o precedent, but the chance to do so at this price has been fairly rare given the franchise's struggles the last several seasons. But with rookie Auston Matthews now in the fold, perception is that this team is improved. Maybe that's true, but the results say "not by much" as the Leafs' 28 points are more than only four other teams league-wide. Exactly half of the team's games this year (14 of 28) have been decided by one goal (lost 11 of those 14 games!), one of them coming here at home against San Jose (3-2 in a shootout) Tuesday. Considering the number of one-goal games and the fact the team is off a tough loss, I'd say they make for prime fade material tonight via the PL. Now to get the PL at this price, our 'play on' team can hardly be a "world-beater." Sure enough, Arizona is one of those four teams w/ fewer points than the Leafs right now. But the difference (three) is somewhat negligible. The 'Yotes are 29th in my own power rankings (ahead of only the Avs), yet are off a 4-1 win over Detroit on Tuesday. Those were a much needed two points after suffering the embarrassment of falling 7-0 at Pittsburgh the previous night. But being on the wrong end of a rout such as that has been fairly uncommon for this team. Of their 19 losses this season, 11 have been by the one-goal margin. In fact, the 'Yotes have played more one-goal games (18) than Toronto has. I think coming in w/ an added day of rest is going to be big for the visitors here. As mentioned above, Toronto had to go to a shootout vs. San Jose in their last game (blew 2-goal lead in third period) and lost. That can be deflating, especially to a young team like the Leafs that has now dropped five of its last six games overall. Furthermore, Arizona has swept the season series each of the last two years, including a pair of one-goal victories in 2015. 'Yotes goaltender Mike Smith has been sharp of late w/ a .943 save percentage his L4 starts. The team hasn't won B2B games since sweeping a home and home from Edmonton on Thanksgiving Weekend, but they'll do no worse here than a one goal loss. 8* Arizona +1.5 | |||||||
12-14-16 | UC-Santa Barbara +30 v. UCLA | 62-102 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 52 m | Show | |
8* UC Santa Barbara (10:30 ET): On paper, this shapes up as a colossal mismatch and there's no way I can stump for UCSB to win this game straight up. But at some point, the market has to run some "interference" and that's what I believe will take place here as the Gauchos' 0-5 ATS record should be remedied by what will certainly be the largest spread they'll face all season. Of course, there's a reason for this spread and the reason happens to be UCLA is unbeaten and rolling. The Bruins are 10-0 SU, ranked #2 in the country and have covered the spread in each of their last seven games. But they're due for a bit of an "off night" at least once, right? After high-profile games against Kentucky and Michigan, I'l call for that "off night" to take place here. Note that in three of UCSB's five lined games, they have been the betting favorite. That includes Sunday's 77-68 loss to San Diego where they were 2.5-pt chalk on the road. Missing on 18 of 23 three-point attempts, plus going just 9 of 17 from the FT line did the Gauchos no favors in that one, especially w/ the Toreros making 12 three-point FG's and making over 90% of their own FT attempts. Going from a road favorite to near 30-pt underdog is quite the swing here for UCSB and while this is a really tough opponent, it's not like they haven't faced some strong competition. Already this season, they have played at both SMU and USC, the latter of whom is also still undefeated (though not nearly as strong as UCLA). Yes, UCSB's lone win thus far came against a non-DI school. But I believe they'll compete here. At some point, UCLA HAS to cool off from three-point range. Right now, they are shooting an unsustainable 47.1% from behind the arc and Saturday vs. Michigan saw them go 15 of 24 from there and shoot 67.2% overall from the field!! In seven of 10 games, this team has now scored at least 97 points. Again, this cannot possibly continue. One thing I would worry about if I were a Bruins fan is defense as opponents are also shooting 40% from 3-pt range against them here at Pauley Pavillion. It was a 50-50 game (literally, that was the score) at halftime Saturday vs. Michigan. Hold your nose and take the boatload of points here. 8* UC Santa Barbara | |||||||
12-14-16 | Pistons -5 v. Mavs | 95-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 19 m | Show | |
8* Detroit (8:35 ET): Off an embarrassing loss (to Philadelphia!), I expect the Pistons to bounce back in a major way this evening as they face the team w/ the worst record in the league. That would be Dallas, whose fall from grace has been swift and harsh in 2016. The days of Dirk Nowitzki leading an efficient offense here are long gone and in fact Nowitzki isn't even playing these days. The Mavs have won their last two home games, both as small underdogs, but those came against subpar foes. One was Indiana, a situation where I actually was ON Dallas. The other was their last time out, arguably the best performance of the season when they blew out Denver 112-92. A repeat of the last game - for either team here - is unlikely. For awhile, the Mavs had the least efficient offense in the entire league. They've worked their way up to 27th, but Monday's effort was definitely a surprise as six players scored in double figures en route to the team posting a season-high for most points in a half (65). But I am not buying that performance as the start of anything permanent. Not only is this team last in points per game (93.5), they're also last in rebounds and 29th in assists. So, yeah, they're really bad. An undrafted rookie, Dorian-Finney Smith, is seeing time as a starter currently. Again, we've seen a couple upsets from this team lately, but those came against teams worse than the Pistons. Dallas is also 0-4 SU/ATS this season after scoring 105+ points the previous game. Detroit is a team better than its record. I say that because they're an unfortunate 0-3 SU in games decided by three points or less this year. That's tied for the most losses w/o a win in that situation in the entire league. Now it wasn't a close game at all when they lost to the Sixers 97-79 on Sunday (as 12-pt road favorites), but that was one of those dreaded early Sunday start times that always seem to favor the home side. As I said earlier, coming off such an embarrassing defeat, I expect SVG to have his team ready to go in this one. I just can't see the Pistons losing to two of the worst teams in the league, back to back, even on the road. They are 23-8 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite the L3 seasons. 8 * Detroit | |||||||
12-14-16 | UC-Davis v. North Dakota State -9.5 | Top | 70-74 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
10* North Dakota State (8:00 ET): North Dakota State is a university known for football and this Saturday will see the Bison square off w/ James Madison in the FCS semifinals. But it's the school's basketball team that I'm interested in tonight as they're at home, off a home loss. The 74-56 home loss to in-state rival North Dakota exactly one week ago dropped the Bison to 0-5 at the betting window on the still young season and was the second time they lost outright as favorites. But tonight in Fargo, I see them bouncing back in a major way against poor Cal Davis, who was the victim of my 10* Game of the Week selection on Saturday when they lost at Cal 86-61, the third consecutive time they've tasted defeat. Lay the points here. It's hard to envision what Cal Davis might have left in the tank here. This is their third straight road game to start December and, in fact, 10 of their 11 games this season have been played on the road or at neutral sites! In my analysis Saturday, I spoke of the Aggies' propensity to turn the ball over too much and how they were subpar at both ends of the court. Nothing I saw in Berkeley changed my mind. They turned it over a season-high 21 times against Cal and shot a woeful 17 of 42 on two-point attempts. Going into halftime, it was a 39-18 game and whether or not Cal would cover the 17-pt spot was the only question. Did I mention the Aggies also allowed the Bears to shoot 56.5% from the field? NDSU has dropped three of four and this will be the final non-conference home game before Summit League play begins. With a three-game road trip looming, which includes a game at Arkansas, it's really critical for the Bison to win here to build some "momentum." (hate that word!). Fortunately, UC Davis should be a willing "dance partner." These teams met in LY's season opener and it was NDSU winning on the road, 79-71, as three-point chalk (actually trailed by six at halftime). I think the combination of a week off + looking to atone for a home loss has the Bison ready to go here. They are giving up just 63.8 PPG this season and have covered three of the last four times they've played w/ five plus days rest. 10* North Dakota State | |||||||
12-13-16 | Morehead State +2.5 v. Eastern Washington | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
10* Morehead State (9:05 ET): My, oh my, what a curious line this is. We have the home team (Eastern Washington), winners of six straight, laying just the "token" three points to our side, which has lost six straight. If you think something is "rotten in Denmark" here, you're not alone. A clear trap has been set here by the oddsmakers and it's one that I, personally, will not be falling for. Note that while EWU has won its last six games, two of those (against the same opponent!) have come in double overtime, another in just single OT plus and two more were decided by six points or less. Save for the last game, a 103-76 win over non-lined Great Falls, this has been one of the least dominant six-game win streaks that I can recall. Take the points. The team that Eastern Washington beat twice in double overtime, in a 12-day span mind you, is Seattle. The first occasion took place on 11.22. The game saw EWU tie the game up on a three-pointer w/ less than six seconds to go in both regulation and the 1st OT. The second time around, this time at Seattle (on 12.4), saw them have to rally back from a 14-pt deficit in the second half. The Eagles also had to rally from a halftime deficit to defeat Denver in OT here at home on 11.27. "Way back" on 11.21, they benefited from 34 FT attempts and a career game from Bogdan Bliznyuk to beat Bryant by only four. Free throws were again key in a six-point win over San Francisco on 11.27 as the Eagles were 23 of 26 from the charity stripe while the Dons were just 14 of 22. That game also saw EWU have to rally from a seven-point halftime deficit. So, what I'm saying is that this team is extraordinarily lucky to be 7-2 SU right now. Morehead State would obviously "kill" to have that record, but I see more positive things on the horizon for these Eagles tonight. There's a bit of controversy here as HC Sean Woods (former player at Kentucky) is still suspended as an investigation takes place over his treatment of players. But the real issue for Morehead State has been their opponents simply can't miss from three-point range. Their last two opponents, Purdue and Lipscomb, have combined to 30 of 55 (54.5%) from behind the arc! That's insane. (Note the Eagles had beaten Lipscomb earlier in the year). That doesn't even include ridiculously hot shooting games from Pitt and Evansville either. This can't all be blamed on the Morehead State defense either as they are quite good at forcing steals (8.8 per game, which is 24th in the country) and have a 1.4 assist to turnover ratio, which leads their conference (OVC). This was pegged to be one of the top teams in the Ohio Valley this season and I see them going to Cheney and picking up a road win. 10* Morehead State | |||||||
12-12-16 | Jacksonville State v. Maryland -13.5 | Top | 66-92 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Maryland (7:00 ET): To me at least, this is a shockingly low number for a team that still has only 1 loss to be laying against such an inferior foe. I actually played against Maryland in their lone loss of the season, which came back on November 29th, to Pitt, 73-59 (were 4.5-pt favorites). In my analysis for that game, I did mention how the Terps' unbeaten run was somewhat living on "borrowed time" considering they'd posted several close wins to start the year, two of them by exactly one point. Immediately after the Pitt loss, they posted another (71-70 over Oklahoma State), which ironically I was on. Since then, they've won by double digits over both Howard and St. Peter's. I see that being the case here again tonight vs. overmatched Jacksonville State. Lay the points. Whomever handles Jacksonville State's schedule must be part sadist. Either that, or the school is simply trying to rack up frequent flyer miles. This will be the Gamecocks' 11th game of the season and 10th away from home! Furthermore, they'll be playing nothing but "true" road games from now until the end of the calendar year. The current trek began w/ a three-point win over Alabama State on 11.29 (same day Maryland suffered its only loss). Since then, they've lost at Samford and LA Monroe, both times by five points or less. While those were close games, the step up in class here is rather immense. Shockingly, this spread is almost identical to the one JSU faced when taking on Tulsa, a team I rate seven points worse than Maryland! Yes, the Gamecocks won that first game outright, but again, this will - easily - be their toughest opponent to date. Fatigue could certainly be a factor for the Gamecocks here as well. The loss at LA Monroe took place Saturday and that game went into overtime. Maryland also played Saturday, but that was at home and they were not tested (never trailed!). Yes, center Damonte Dodd is out here w/ a knee injury, but that should not affect this game. Leading scorer Melo Trimble has found support in the form of a pair of freshman - Justin Jackson and Kevin Huerter. Keep in mind that the Terps led by as many as 25 in the second half Saturday before clearly taking their foot off the proverbial gas pedal. 10* Maryland | |||||||
12-11-16 | Pepperdine +19 v. USC | Top | 67-93 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 25 m | Show |
8* Pepperdine (10:00 ET): Entering play on Sunday, there are seven teams in the country still undefeated. KenPom, a far more reliable ranking system than the pollsters, has five of them in the top 20 (only Villanova cracks the Top 10!). The other two are South Carolina and USC, who are tied for the fewest number of wins among the unbeatens (8) and no one is really taking seriously. While USC is unlikely to fall at home Sunday night, their unbeaten record sure does have them overvalued as they host Pepperdine. This is a bit of a tricky spot for the Trojans as they've been off for the last week (last game was on 12.3) and won't play again until 12.17. Seems like a good time to step in and fade them. Take the points. Pepperdine isn't likely to scare anyone being that they're currently riding a four-game losing streak, but the Waves can be competitive. They've proven that by cashing all four times they've been a road underdog of 12.5 or more points the previous two seasons. They are about to enter a very tough stretch of games as Wednesday's loss at Long Beach State marked the beginning of a six-game road trip that will take them to the end of the year. Aside from a somewhat embarrassing loss to Portland State (at home) earlier this month, it's not like the Waves have been drastically underperforming expectations. This marks the sixth game in a row that they will be an underdog. They do hold a neutral site win over Ark-Little Rock back on 11.22. The last time we saw USC, they beat BYU 91-84 at Staples Center. The game marked their first w/o starting forward Bennie Boatright, who will miss the next six weeks due to a knee injury. Boatright is a key loss as he averages 10.8 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. It should be pointed out that the Trojans lost the rebounding battle vs. BYU. Though BYU missed 18 of its 23 three-point attempts, they were still able to score 84 points, including 52 in the second half. So Pepperdine should have no issues scoring here and given the large pointspread, that's a winning combination as far as the betting window is concerned. The Waves are dealing w/ injuries as well, but have a 22 PPG scorer in Lamond Murray Jr. The team is shooting better than 40% from three-point range as well. 8* Pepperdine | |||||||
12-11-16 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Suns | Top | 120-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:35 ET): The Pelicans were somewhat humiliated last night, losing to the Clippers 133-105. It was a close game, at least for a half (NO trailed only 61-55 heading into the break), but Chris Paul's virtuoso performance of 20 pts, 20 assists and zero turnovers proved to be too much. It should also be pointed out that Anthony Davis, who is averaging a league-high 38.1 minutes per game, was rested. It was the team's fifth consecutive loss (also 0-5 ATS) and seventh in the last eight games. This stretch is reminiscent to the start of the season when they began 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS. In between, however, they were 6-2 SU, 6-1-1 ATS. With Davis expected back in the lineup Sunday, I like the team to at least cover, if not snap the losing streak outright. Not sure Phoenix should be favored here. Yes, they did just win out in LA (over the Lakers) Friday night in a nationally televised affair. But I suspect that rather high profile 119-115 victory is the cause for this line, something I would dub an "overreaction." It should be pointed out that not only are the Suns 0-4 ATS this season when favored, they have lost all four games outright! They are still w/o TJ Warren (concussion). Coming off a SU win as a dog this year, the team is 1-5 SU and ATS. Three different bench players scored in double figures against the Lakers, something that simply cannot be counted on a game by game basis. According to my own power rankings, the Suns remain one of the worst teams in the league as they are 22nd in offensive efficiency and 24th in defensive efficiency. They give up 113 PPG, most in the Western Conference. Though beaten badly last night, it stands to reason that the Pelicans should bounce back w/ Davis returning to the lineup. Again, despite being severely short-handed, they hung tough w/ the talented Clippers for a half. The 133 pts allowed last night were a season-high and can directly be tied to Davis' absence as the team actually ranks a respectable 13th in defensive efficiency overall. Also possibly rejoining the lineup tonight are Jrue Holliday and E'Twaun Moore. Having actually dropped three in a row to the Suns, one of those earlier this year, this is a bit of a revenge game for the Pelicans as well. 10* New Orleans | |||||||
12-11-16 | Redskins v. Eagles | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 21 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): The Eagles' surprise 3-0 SU and ATS start is now a distant memory as they've gone just 2-7 SU and ATS since their Week 4 bye. They've lost three consecutive games, all by 11 pts or more, and failed to score more than 15 pts in any of them. So, you might already be wondering why I'd be willing to endorse them in this spot. Well, for starters, they are at home. Prior to the Monday night game against the Packers, Philly was a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS here at Lincoln Financial Field. This is also a play AGAINST Washington, whom I still do not believe in. This is the third consecutive road game for the 'Skins and seeing as I was right to fade them LW (lost 31-23 at Arizona), I'll do so again here. Last week marked the Eagles worst loss of the year as they were soundly beaten in Cincinnati, 32-14. They fell behind 29-0 in the third quarter and only scored in "garbage time." 1st year HC Doug Pederson ripped his team's performance (rightly so) saying "not everyone" played hard. I realize there are some legit concerns w/ rookie QB Carson Wentz and this offense right now, but going up against a Redskins defense which has permitted three or more scores in six consecutive games, they should find their way. It will certainly help to get WR Jordan Matthews back. Last week was the first game Matthews missed in his career. It showed. At home, this offense averages 24.2 points and 358 yards per game at home. More importantly though, the defense (still one of the best in the league) allows only 13.0 PPG. Something else to consider here is the fact that when these teams met back in Week 6, the Eagles were actually favored in D.C.. Granted, they lost 27-20 and failed to record an offensive touchdown, but going from road favorite to home dog for the rematch comes across as a classic overadjustment to me. Washington's offense may again be missing TE Jordan Reed. While QB Kirk Cousins has proven himself to be more than serviceable, I still don't trust him in these situations. The Redskins have only been a road fave once this year (-1 at Detroit) and lost that game straight up. Philly is due to reverse a 0-4 SU/0-5 ATS slide in this NFC East rivalry. Note that this is the first time in seven tries that the 'Skins are favored over the Eagles. The Eagles still have a better YTD point differential. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
12-11-16 | Steelers v. Bills +2 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -108 | 108 h 21 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): For 2.5 quarters last week, everything was going perfectly for the Bills as they led the Raiders, in Oakland, 24-9. But then, improbably, everything went awry. From that point on, they were outscored 29-0. It was a killer loss too as Buffalo fell to 6-6 SU, two games back of the final Wild Card. But they do have a favorable schedule on the horizon w/ Cleveland, Miami and the Jets to close the season, only the Jets game being on the road. If they can win this first of three home games, this week vs. Pittsburgh, I'd give the Bills a very good chance at winning out and qualifying for the "tournament." While the Steelers might seem too formidable, note the three-game win streak they come in on has been the byproduct of largely weak competition. With the homefield advantage, I believe the Bills should be favored here. Predictably, the public is loading up on the Steelers here, making them one of the most popular choices of this week. But as I said a moment ago, this three game win streak of the Steelers' has been the byproduct of some fairly week competition. They've beaten Cleveland (worst team in the league), Indianapolis (w/ Scott Tolzien) and the Giants (overrated). This marks their third road game in four weeks, so there could be some weariness involved even though the travel has not been far. Something else worth nothing is each of those last three opponents rank 26th or lower in rush offense. Buffalo leads the league in rushing at a monster 161.9 YPG. The Steelers may rank 6th in the league against the run, but they are 0-4 SU and ATS when facing a top 10 rush offense. Again, there is no better offense at running the football than the one they'll face here. Making matters more difficult is that DT Javon Hargrave (concussion) may not play here. Buffalo has run for 150+ yards in five straight games. The passing attack has been much maligned, but this could be the first time since Week 2 that QB Tyrod Tayor has both WR's Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods available at his disposal. The Steelers offense, as lauded as it may be, has scored more than 28 pts just one time in the L7 games. The Bills actually average more points per game! 8* Buffalo | |||||||
12-11-16 | Cardinals +1 v. Dolphins | Top | 23-26 | Loss | -105 | 108 h 20 m | Show |
10* Arizona (1:00 ET): Previous ventures out East have not gone well for the Cardinals this year. (see losses at Buffalo, Carolina and Atlanta). But awaiting them in Miami might be their weakest Eastern Time Zone foe yet and I was shocked that Arizona opened as the dog here. Yes, the Dolphins are the team that finds itself in more realistic playoff contention, but Ryan Tannehill and company were badly exposed in LW's one-sided beatdown at the hands of Baltimore. As I noted in LW's play on Arizona, this team still has one of the best defenses in the league as that unit still ranks #2 in yards allowed on both a per game and per play basis. Believe it or not, but the Cardinals are #1 in the league in YPG differential! Before running into the Ravens last week, Miami had won six in a row. But half of those wins had come against the Jets, Rams and 49ers. They were fortunate to beat both Buffalo and San Diego. I'll give them credit for the win over Pittsburgh, but that was almost two months ago. Last week saw the offense get held to just 277 total yards in Baltimore and what's notable about that is Arizona's defense rates fairly comparably to that of the Ravens. In fact, Miami now finds itself in the unenviable situation of having to face the top two defenses in the league in terms of yards allowed in consecutive weeks. Remember what I said about Arizona ranking #1 in the league in YPG differential? Well, Miami is 29th in that department (-45.3)! It was nice to see the Arizona offense get back on track last week w/ 31 points vs. Washington. They needed it as the usually stout defense actually had an off-game. But it's a much weaker offense that they'll be going up against here. Speaking of offense, Arizona's David Johnson is having himself a MVP-caliber season. He leads the league in yards from scrimmage w/ 100+ in every game thus far. Miami's defense ranks only 29th against the run and only one team (awful San Francisco) is giving up more yards per carry. So look for Johnson to have a big game here. Including last week's loss, Miami is an awful 0-10 ATS in the month of December the L3 seasons. 10* Arizona | |||||||
12-10-16 | UC-Davis v. California -17.5 | Top | 61-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
10* California (10:30 ET): Since winning and covering their season opener, Cal has has its issues at the betting window. But help comes tonight in the form of UC Davis, a team outside the top 250 in the country. While Cal has struggled to cover games (2-7 ATS), they are 7-2 straight up, including a perfect 6-0 here in Berkeley. Off a loss to Seton Hall Wednesday (in Hawaii), I anticipate they'll be looking to blow the doors off UC Davis here and the Aggies should be pretty compliant given a 1-33 SU mark as a road underdog of more than 12.5 points. Cal did lead Seton Hall at the half Wednesday (34-31), but overall it was a poor shooting night, especially from three-point range where they were just 3 of 16. Cuonzo Martin's team entered the break having shot 52.4% overall from the field, so it was clearly the second half that cost them. Back at home, I imagine we'll see better shooting tonight. One thing that we can count on w/ the Bears is their defense, which is permitting just 60.0 PPG. Only one opponent, San Diego State, has topped 65 points against them this season. That's pretty impressive and thus you would expect that they would have covered more games. They did beat Princeton in the Pearl Harbor Invitational, holding them to only 51 points. This remains a top 50 team nationally. UC Davis has been off for a week, but this will be their second consecutive road game. They lost at Idaho, 68-66 as 6.5-point dogs, last Saturday as that game was decided at the buzzer. They did win their only other road game to date, outright, as they upset Santa Clara 63-58 as 5.5-pt dogs back on November 12th. But this shapes up as the Aggies' most difficult game to date. Cal is very good at forcing teams to take tough two-point shots and UC Davis is shooting only 46.4% on two-point attempts this year, which ranks 250th nationally. The Aggies are below par on both ends of the floor compared to the national average an also have a propensity to turn the ball over way too much. Led by preseason All-American Ivan Rabb, Cal simply has too much height for this overmatched opponent and don't forget 7' junior center Kingsley Okorah. The Bears have been dealing w/ numerous injuries so far, which explains them falling short of the oddsmakers expectations, but head into this contests as healthy as they've been all season. For UC Davis, who has played 10 games total, this is their ninth on the road. 10* California | |||||||
12-10-16 | Heat +10.5 v. Bulls | Top | 100-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
10* Miami (8:05 ET): The Heat were blown out last night in Cleveland, but I see them bouncing back tonight in Chicago and earning themselves at least a cover. The Bulls are in prime letdown mode here as they're fresh off an upset of San Antonio on TNT Thursday night. They were three-point underdogs there, but have now shifted to large favorites at the betting window, a role that I do not believe suits them well. As a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points, they are just 6-12 ATS the L3 seasons. When these teams met in Miami exactly one month ago, the line was a pick 'em. Though Chicago won that game by three, I do not believe the large shift in the spread is justified for this rematch. Take the points. Miami has actually won and covered each of its last three visits to the Windy City. Obviously, this is a rebuilding year on South Beach, something that was readily apparent by looking at the lineup Coach "Spo" trotted out last night in Cleveland. But not every opponent is going to be as strong as the Cavaliers, who had way too much firepower. It also didn't help that the Heat shot a season-worst 34.8 percent from the floor. Their best player, Hassan Whiteside, was held to just eight points on 4 of 10 shooting and wound up getting benched. At the same time, the Cavs gashed them for 55.4 percent shooting. I expect the shooting percentages to be far closer tonight. Since the start of November, Chicago has shot better than 50% from the floor in only one game. That was against the defensively inept Lakers. Chicago has beaten both Cleveland and San Antonio in the last eight days, but lost three straight times in between, including a blowout at the hands of the team w/ the worst record in the league (Dallas). They've been a very inconsistent team. Given that both of these squads rank in the bottom third in pace of play, we shouldn't expect a ton of possessions tonight and thus the likelihood of a blowout decreases. Over the L30 days, the Bulls have posted just two double digit victories and one was against Philadelphia. There's also the matter of their 9-20 ATS record (L3 seasons) when coming off a SU win as a dog. 10* Miami | |||||||
12-10-16 | Michigan +9.5 v. UCLA | Top | 84-102 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
8* Michigan (8:00 ET): UCLA is one of eight remaining unbeaten teams in the country. Ironically, I don't think any of them, save for #1 Villanova, belong in the top 10! UCLA is currently ranked #2 by the pollsters, but I don't know of anyone besides them who thinks this is the second best team in the country. This will be the Bruins' first game since their upset of then-#1 Kentucky last Saturday and while a week can be a long time, I still view this as a letdown spot in Pauley Pavilion. Michigan has lost twice, but both times were as favorites and one of them was by just three points. The other was their first "true" road game (at South Carolina), but I believe John Beilein will have his Wolverines "ready to go" Saturday night in primetime. Michigan is coming off a 53-50 win over Texas in Ann Arbor on Tuesday. They were 10-pt faves there, which shows how much the market was respecting them. Curiously, this Wolverines team is nowhere near as sharp-shooting as past Beilein editions. I can assure you this is not a misprint, but the Maize and Blue were an all-time horrific 19.2% from the floor against South Carolina, which explains that loss. They shot only 41.2% against Texas, which was their next lowest shooting percentage to date. The team is shooting just 34.9% from three-point range, which would be the lowest percentage for any Wolverines team since 2009-10. I expect these shooting numbers to drastically improve moving forward as almost 45% of their total attempts from the field are from behind the arc. Sooner rather than later, those shots will start to go down. Meanwhile, UCLA is due to regress as they're currently hitting an unsustainable 45.4% from three-point range. The win over Kentucky was not w/o some ugliness as Lonzo Ball was just 2 of 8 from behind the arc and committed five turnovers in the first half. With six straight covers, the last one being an outright win as 10.5-point pups, it's only natural for the oddsmakers to have the Bruins overvalued coming into this tilt. Michigan is dangerous as a dog, a role they have yet to find themselves this season, until now. 8* Michigan | |||||||
12-10-16 | La Salle v. Georgetown -3.5 | Top | 78-93 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
10* Georgetown (2:00 ET): This game is being contested in Miami, FL as part of the Hoophall Invitational. For LaSalle, it's their second straight Big East opponent. In non-tourney action, they took on city (Philly) rival Villanova Tuesday and actually played the #1 team in the nation pretty tough, losing only 89-79 as 17.5-pt dogs. Coming off a high-profile game such as that, Georgetown may not have the Explorers' full attention and that could prove problematic. With a shaky ATS mark already, the Hoyas barely escaped Elon (won by 3) their last game. But that was on Sunday and I figure JTIII will have his team very focused for this neutral site affair. Lay the short number here. Thus far, G'town has covered only one game, a 65-61 upset of Oregon (were +9) on 11.21. They've been big money-burners when favored, going 0-4 ATS including early season losses at home to both Maryland and Arkansas State. At one point, they stood at only 2-4 SU, but the team has since rattled off three consecutive victories. The disappointing records - SU and ATS - have led to a bit of a reevaluation in the marketplace and right now I believe it to be a great time to "buy low" on them. One thing that the Hoyas do well is defend the three-point line as opponents are shooting only 30.6% from distance against them this year. That's key facing a LaSalle squad that's currently making an unsustainable 41.6% from behind the arc. LaSalle played Villanova very tough on Tuesday and you have to wonder what they'll have left in the tank here. A flurry of late three-pointers had them down only four, which was also the halftime deficit, late in the game. But the Explorers eventually wilted and lost by 10. While this team can certainly score, I'd be concerned about a defense which is permitting 80.4 PPG on 48.7% shooting. Opponents are making almost 40% of their three-point tries against LaSalle. Georgetown unexpectedly struggled in its last game on the glass, but w/ Isaac Copeland now back in the fold, I see them dominating that department here against the Explorers. The five days off should do the Hoyas some good and I'll point out that they've gone 31-2 straight up under Thompson vs. opponents giving up 77+ points per game. 10* Georgetown | |||||||
12-09-16 | Pacers v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 103-111 | Win | 100 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): The Mavs fall from grace has been rather precipitous, but I'm not sure they should be catching this many points at home against a subpar foe like Indiana. Yes, Dallas has the worst record in the league (4-17 SU) and are 29th in offensive efficiency. But they've at least been competitive here at home, losing by an average of just 5.4 PPG thus far. As you might have guessed though, this is more a play AGAINST the Pacers, who are just 3-7 SU and ATS on the road and not really worthy of being favored. Sure, Indiana is coming off a blowout win at Phoenix Wednesday night, but this will be their fifth straight road game and fourth in six nights. Dallas, theoretically, should be highly motivated after being humiliated here at home by Sacramento on Wednesday. Take the points. Making this line all the more curious is the fact that Indiana was favored by only 5.5 earlier in the year over the Mavs and that was at home. Granted, they won and Dallas has fallen harder and faster than even the biggest pessimist would have thought. But still, this looks like an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. That first meeting was actually the season opener for both teams and it went to overtime. Dallas put up an unconscionable 48 three-pointers in the contest, but Indiana was far more efficient from behind the arc, hitting 10 of 18. I do not envision the Pacers matching that kind of shooting as they were also better than 50% overall from the field. For the year, they are shooting just 45.5% from the field and 34.4% from three-point range. The Pacers, like the Mavs, are in the bottom third in the league in offensive efficiency. The Pacers poor defense will also serve to help Dallas here. On the road, the Pacers are giving up a horrible 115.7 PPG. Some of that was them getting torched for 142 by Golden State on Monday. But they also allowed 131 to Portland last week. While this is the Pacers' fifth consecutive road game, it is the Mavs' fourth consecutive home game. So the situation definitely favors them. Again, this team was embarrassed here two night ago and I can only assume they'll be eager to atone for it. 10* Dallas | |||||||
12-09-16 | Longwood +33.5 v. Creighton | Top | 58-113 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
8* Longwood (7:30 ET): Sure, Longwood is not even one of the top 325 teams in America? Do you even know what conference they hail from? (Answer: Big South). Do you even know their nickname>? (Answer: Lancers). The answers to those questions are actually quite irrelevant because this is just a horrible spot for still unbeaten Creighton. The Blue Jays are just two days removed from an in-state tussle w/ Nebraska where they clearly brought their 'A-Game.' Of course, Nebraska really did not as the 'Huskers shot just 32.4% from the floor in the 77-62 final (Creighton was favored by four). Will Longwood win this game? Obviously not. But this is an absolute boatload of points to take going against what should be a very disinterested favorite. Longwood rarely plays a lined game, but they have one under their belt in 2016. As 18-point underdogs, they ended up covering @ SF Austin, losing by only six. Obviously this is a big step up in class here, but the Lancers have generally been competitive. Their only "bad" loss came by 22 at home to Maine, which was the season opener. They are coming off a loss to a previously winless James Madison team last Saturday, but I imagine the players will be very excited to take on this challenge. This is their first time playing a ranked opponent since Georgetown in 2012. They have three double-digit scorers, led by Darrion Allen (15.7 PPG). No matter how "outgunned" you may think Longwood is here, I guarantee they shoot the ball better than Nebraska did on Wednesday. The Cornhuskers missed 19 of 22 three-point attempts, for crying out loud! Creighton has an eight-day break after this game, so don't be shocked if they're already peeking ahead to that. There has been only one time in the L3 seasons that the Blue Jays have been asked to lay more than 30 points at the betting window and not surprisingly, they failed to cover the spot. This is just an insane spread, regardless of matchup, and I keep coming back to the fact this is their second game in three days and clearly the less interesting of the two. Total letdown game for Creighton, who will not be interested in winning by the margin that the oddsmakers are calling for. 8* Longwood | |||||||
12-08-16 | Texas-Arlington +14 v. St. Mary's | Top | 65-51 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show |
10* UT-Arlington (10:00 ET): The number of unbeatens in College Basketball was reduced to nine last night w/ both Butler & TCU losing. Of the nine remaining, #1 Villanova (defending Nat'l Champs) is clearly the strongest. After the Wildcats, we find a group of teams that likely fall between the 10th and 20th best teams in the country right now. One of them is St. Mary's. Unbeaten starts are nothing new for the Gaels; last year the team also started 6-0 SU. But then they lost their next game at Cal. For the record, it should be pointed out that SMU has played the fewest # of games of any remaining unbeaten. Tonight, they host a worthy adversary in UT-Arlington, who happens to be one of the top mid-majors in the country. Take the points. The Mavericks of UT-Arlington are a formidable foe here as they have already won outright at Texas, as 7.5-pt underdogs, back on 11.29. The preseason choice to win the Sun Belt, UT Arlington has thrived in the underdog role through the years, going 44-22 ATS including 16-8 ATS the L3 seasons. Already they're 3-1 ATS this year w/ not only the outright win at Texas, but also at Fordham as well. They also covered a game at Arkansas. So don't look for the team to be intimidated at all by playing the #12 ranked team in the country. This is already the Mavs' seventh road game and the start of their third three-game trip. So they're battle tested. Be on the lookout for SBC Player of the Year Kevin Hervey, who is averaging 13.4 points and 6.2 rebounds per game. While UT Arlington just played two nights ago and St. Mary's has been off since 11.30, I do not see that being a significant edge for the favorite here. It's not as if UT Arlington was tested on Tuesday; they won by 50 over a D-III school (Texas-Dallas). Also, don't be surprised if St. Mary's is perhaps a bit rusty coming off the week-plus break. This is just the second time in the last three seasons that they've had 7+ days off between games and they failed to cover in the only previous instance. While the Gaels have already beaten the likes of Dayton and Stanford, a case can be made that UT Arlington is on par w/ those teams. Yet they're getting a far more generous spread. 10* UT Arlington | |||||||
12-08-16 | Blazers +2 v. Grizzlies | Top | 86-88 | Push | 0 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): The Blazers have been a massive disappointment this season, particularly on the defensive end. They currently rank dead last in the league in defensive efficiency, giving up almost 1.1 points per possession. Last night saw their 3-0 SU/ATS win streak halted as they allowed 115 points in Milwaukee. But tonight, they take on a Grizzlies team that's not known for scoring in bunches and is playing w/o Mike Conley. While the Grizz have yet to lose since their starting PG went down, they've been fortunate to draw some pretty weak opponents. Orlando, the Lakers, New Orleans and Philadelphia were the last four opponents and all four wins have been by five points or less. I like Portland here. "We're not a very good team right now" is what HC Terry Stotts had to say about the Blazers following last night's loss in Milwaukee. Things really came apart in the second half as they allowed the Bucks to score 64 points. For the game, Milwaukee shot nearly 52% from the floor and was 10 of 24 from three-point range. That performance came on the heels of some improved defensive efforts against Indiana, Miami and Chicago. Fortunately for Portland here, Memphis is short-handed and I believe simply lacks the capability to exploit the defensive shortcomings. In addition to being w/o Conley, the Grizzlies don't have Chandler Parsons, James Ennis, Vince Carter and Brandan Wright. Zach Randolph is set to return tonight, but that's still a lot of missing pieces for one team to deal with. Portland has already beat Memphis once this year, here at the FedEx Forum, and that was when Conley was playing. What I want to specifically point to there is that it was one of the Blazers' best defensive efforts of the season. They won 100-94 by holding the Grizzlies to just 38.3% shooting overall including 6 of 26 from three-point range. If they can beat Memphis at full strength, then they should be able to beat them here. I believe that the Grizz simply lacks the firepower to keep up w/ Portland right now. They are averaging only 95.5 PPG at home this season. 10* Portland | |||||||
12-07-16 | Creighton v. Nebraska +5 | Top | 77-62 | Loss | -118 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
8* Nebraska (9:00 ET): In-state bragging rights are on the line here and it's the bigger state school that finds itself in the role of home underdog for this one. While one could argue that this game "means more" to unbeaten Creighton, don't discount Nebraska's motivation in this one. Sure, the folks in Lincoln may still be more concerned with the Music City Bowl vs. Tennessee later this month. But for those inside Pinnacle Bank Arena tonight, this game looms large. Creighton is #10 in the nation and as I said earlier, still unbeaten (one of 11 remaining unbeatens in the country). The Blue Jays have had the Cornhuskers' number through the years, going 15-5 ATS, including B2B double digit wins. But I'm calling for a different end to the story tonight. Take the points. This will be Creighton's first "true" road game of the season. Granted, they don't have to go far, but it's still a hostile environment. I cannot possibly see the Bluejays' hot shooting continuing, at least at the current clip. They've shot 50% or better in every game so far and average 90.2 PPG. But the first true road game seems like a good spot for that average to dip and Nebraska is allowing only 62.5 PPG thus far, on 39.3 percent shooting. Here at home, the scoring average dips down to 53.5 PPG. Last year in Omaha, Creighton attempted 21 more free throws while the 'Huskers shot just 4 of 21 from downtown (three-point range) and that was the difference. Nebraska has definitely challenged itself this year as they played UCLA, the current #2 team in the land, and Virginia Tech. Not to mention, they had to go to Clemson as a part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge and came up just two points short there. That's three top 40 opponents away from home thus far. Creighton did beat Wisconsin early in the year, but that's their only top 60 opponent to date. Shockingly, the Bluejays are only 7-18 SU in "true" road games the previous two seasons. 8* Nebraska | |||||||
12-07-16 | TCU v. SMU -4 | Top | 59-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
10* SMU (8:00 ET): There are still 11 unbeaten teams remaining in College Basketball and four of them are in action tonight. Perhaps the weakest of those 11 is TCU, who is actually an underdog this evening at in-state rival SMU. Despite a 16-5 ATS record vs. the Ponies, the underdog distinction is absolutely justified here for the Horned Frogs. This is a team that hardly cracks the top 50 in most rating systems, including my own. They'll be playing a "true" road game for only the second time all year (won close over UNLV back on 11.25). SMU has won 37 of its past 40 home games overall and has taken on the far more challenging schedule to date compared to their Texas brethren. Lay the points in this one as TCU will be handed its first loss of the season. SMU has started December w/ a pair of cupcake games, beating CS-Bakersfield and Delaware State here in Dallas. Against the former, they did not shoot the ball well at all, in fact they finished the game at just 31.8% from the field. But they allowed only 43 points on 29.8% shooting, then had far less difficulty w/ Delaware State on Sunday. This will obviously be a stiffer test tonight, but getting the game here at Moody Coliseum is huge. They've won 19 straight here over non-conference competition. Four different Mustangs are averaging double figures in scoring and this team also boasts the 6th best rebounding margin in the country. They did beat TCU LY in Ft. Worth, 75-70, albeit failing to cover as 6.5-pt chalk. But a shorter number at home seems like a real bargain to me. I'm just not a buyer on this TCU team as they've yet to play anyone of real substance. Sure, they did beat Washington twice, but the Huskies hardly crack the top 90 teams nationally. Their toughest opponent to date may very well have been Illinois State. Meanwhile, SMU has taken on the likes of Pitt, Michigan, USC and Boise State, all away from home. Even w/ the win at UNLV, the Horned Frogs are still a lousy 3-18 SU last 21 "true" road games. We've seen similar starts from this program before, only for things to unravel once the conference portion of the schedule hits. Once again, TCU's weak non-conference slate isn't fooling me. 10* SMU | |||||||
12-06-16 | Bradley v. Ball State -7 | Top | 63-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
10* Ball State (7:00 ET): Revenge alert! Ball State lost at Bradley last year, 54-53 as two-point favorites. As you can ascertain from that final score, it was a pretty miserable night shooting the ball for both teams. This year, the Cardinals get to play host and have the additional motivation of being of a loss, here at home no less. They fell Saturday to IUPUI, as six-point favorites, 73-62. As was the case w/ the play on Rider last night, I don't see our side dropping B2B home games. Bradley is also off a home loss here, theirs more severe, as they fell 91-69 to Nevada. The Braves have pulled off a few upsets this year, but not here. Lay the points. Ball State is actually just 1-2 SU here in Muncie, losing outright as the betting favorite twice. The first came to Indiana State back on November 15th. Then there was Saturday's setback. The lone home win for the Cardinals so far was against a non-D1 foe (Indiana-Kokomo). That being said, poor shooting was to blame for both home losses. I see the Cards shooting the ball better here against a Bradley team that just gave up 91 points on 55.6% shooting. Saturday's loss was a tough one for BSU as they led IUPUI 36-29 at halftime and led by 11 w/ 14:37 to go. They shot just 33.3% in the second half and scored only four points in the final four minutes. They were 3 of 10 from the FT line w/ only two of those attempts coming after halftime. Bottom line is the Cardinals know they let one slip away Saturday and should come out highly motivated. Poor shooting was again the culprit in LY's loss at Bradley. Ironically, Bradley shot worse though. The Braves were held to 31.9% from the floor, including 5 of 20 from three-point range. But making nine more free throws than BSU did was the difference in a one-point game. Bradley's game Saturday vs. Nevada was a part of the Mountain West vs. Missouri Valley Challenge and saw the Braves fall behind by 20 at halftime. They never led in what was a very one-sided affair. Bradley has won just 3 of its last 25 "true" road games, one of those wins being an upset LW at Eastern Illinois. I wouldn't look for them to make it two in a row. 10* Ball State | |||||||
12-05-16 | Colts v. Jets +2 | Top | 41-10 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:30 ET): I readily concede to you that the Jets are not world-beaters (I have them ranked 28th in the league coming into this game), but who are the Colts (ranked 24th) to be laying points on the road? Even w/ QB Andrew Luck back in the fold, Indy is not a very impressive team. They're 5-6 SU and been outscored by 31 points this season. Without Luck (concussion), they were whipped badly by the Steelers on Thanksgiving night, losing 28-7 in one of the more lopsided games of last week. The Colts have now been outgained in seven of their last eight games and again, this one (for me) boils down to the fact I never want to lay points w/ a bad team on the road (see 49ers yday). The Jets beat the Colts soundly LY, on a Monday night, 20-7 as six-point road underdogs. Take the points here. The Jets probably should have beaten the Patriots last week as they led w/ just under 2:00 to go and never trailed by more than the spread. Though now 3-8 SU, I believe the Jets to be slightly better than their record. A -15 turnover margin has certainly done them no favors and while most of that is on QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, he looked a lot better in his return to the starting lineup last week than he had previously. A big key for Fitz and the Jets offense here is that center Nick Mangold is set to return. Note that the Jets have been close each of the L3 weeks, losing by five or less every time and outgaining two of those opponents. The Jets' offense should have some success here against an awful Indy defense, which is giving up the second most yards per play in the league right now (6.2). Fitzpatrick should have some success in this game as the Colts' pass rush often fails to get home. Indy has allowed 22 TD passes so far and while picking off opposing passers only three times. Every single opponent this year has scored 20+ on this Colts defense. Meanwhile, the strength of this Jets team (defense), should do well against an awful Colts' O-line, which allows Luck to be sacked about 3.5x per game. In the L3 games, the Jets are allowing an average of just 310.3 YPG. I feel that, at home, New York should be able to win this game. 10* NY Jets | |||||||
12-05-16 | Siena v. Rider +4 | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
10* Rider (7:00 ET): Rider didn't play its first home game until Thursday and they promptly lost it 76-67 as 3.5-point favorites to Fairfield. Tonight, they host a Siena team that beat Fairfield, 80-73 as 7.5-pt home favorites, just two days later. Thus, most will naturally favor the Saints in this MAAC battle, but not I as Rider has some revenge to exact here, plus Siena may be a little road-weary from playing its sixth "true" road game since November 15th. They're 0-5 SU so far, so I see no reason why they should be the favorite here, especially considering they've given up an average of 83.4 PPG in those five losses. Take the points. Rider had no answer for Fairfield's Tyler Nelson, who went for 38 points last Thursday. Needless to say, it was a career night for Nelson as he made six three-pointers, all 10 free throws and was 11 of 20 from the field. While the Broncs did trail the entire second half, they had managed to close the gap to five before free throws put the game away. Meanwhile, Siena was able to beat the Stags in their MAAC opener as one of their players (Nico Clareth) had a career night w/ 33 points. Nelson scored only 23 for Fairfield this time. Note that the Saints actually gave away a 16-pt lead in the second half, allowing the Stags to score 16 straight points. Something to note here is Siena was only 9 of 19 from the free throw line and those kind of numbers can cost a team moving forward. Siena won both matchups LY and has beaten Rider three straight times overall. The Broncs were embarrassed last year here in Lawrenceville, losing by 20, and given that they just dropped the home opener, I expect a real emphasis placed on the result here. I was impressed that Rider was able to win three of five on the road to start the year and they should be the fresher team here, not just because they've had two additional days to prepare, but also due to the fact they've played two fewer games overall. The Broncs are also a strong 14-3 ATS as home underdogs of 3.5 to 6 points. 10* Rider | |||||||
12-04-16 | Panthers v. Seahawks -7 | Top | 7-40 | Win | 100 | 78 h 58 m | Show |
10* Seattle (8:25 ET): The Seahawks are off a rather embarrassing loss LW, 14-5 at Tampa Bay, which put a severe damper on their hopes of chasing down Dallas for homefield advantage in the NFC. But that's nothing compared to the heartbreak the Panthers have suffered throughout 2016. All that went right for Carolina last year, has gone wrong this year as last week's 35-32 loss at Oakland marked their fifth loss by a field goal or less this year. That's a stark contrast to LY when they were 8-1 SU in one-score games. Regression was inevitable for 2015's NFC Champs, but who knew it would be so severe? As much as I want to state Carolina is better than its record, a primetime affair in Seattle seems like the least likely place to turn things around. Especially w/ the Seahawks coming off a loss. Lay the points. Under HC Pete Carroll, the 'Hawks are 16-5 ATS in regular season primetime games. Much has been written about the so-called 'Circadian Advantage' that Pacific Time Zone teams enjoy in night games, so I'll leave that to you to research. This will be Seattle's fourth primetime game in the L7 weeks and they are 2-0-1 ATS the previous three, including road games vs. Arizona and New England. Also, be aware that over the past four seasons, the Seahawks are 8-3-1 ATS when laying a TD or less at home. This was a team that had been rolling prior to last week's dud performance in Tampa Bay. They'd won in New England (Sunday Night Game) and pretty much dominated a good Philadelphia team the previous two weeks. They're still 5-0 SU at home and are #1 in scoring defense. Carolina having a breakout game offensively last week might seem encouraging. But that's until you realize it came against a shaky Raiders defense, which is 30th against the run (yards per carry). That explains the Panthers going over 100 yds rushing for the first time in four weeks. Two of the previous three saw them held under 60 yds rushing. The Seattle defense should be at full strength here w/ both Earl Thomas and Michael Bennett returning. Meanwhile, Carolina has major losses on both sides of the ball w/ top defensive player Luke Kuechly out (concussion) and the offensive line down to a third-string center signed off the street. You saw the impact of Kuechly's absence w/ the defense giving up 35 pts LW vs. Oakland. On the road this year, Carolina is now giving up 31.0 PPG. This is a revenge game for the Seahawks as well (LY's Divisional Playoff), so don't be surprised to see them kick a dog when it's down, so to speak. 10* Seattle | |||||||
12-04-16 | Bucs v. Chargers -3.5 | Top | 28-21 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 54 m | Show |
10* San Diego (4:25 ET): I believe this line should be closer to a touchdown, rather than a field goal. Yes, the Chargers are only 5-6 straight up for the year. But they were my top play last week and looked good coming off the bye w/ a 21-13 win at Houston. Now, they return home to face a Tampa Bay team that will be in prime letdown mode off a shocking win LW at home over Seattle. Two weeks ago, the Bucs beat the Chiefs, but I'm still not really a believer as they've still been outscored by 15 pts over the course of the season. So what I'm saying is that they shouldn't start printing playoff tickets just yet in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, I'm not ready to write off the Chargers just yet, despite them being in a very tough division. Lay the points. I said it in last week's analysis and I'll come back w/ it again: the Chargers are better than their record. They've led in every game this year. That includes the second half advantages in five of the six losses. Twice, they've blown double digit fourth quarter leads and had that not happened, they'd be right in the thick of the competitive AFC West. QB Philip Rivers has been bit by the turnover bug at some most inopportune times (Miami game, in particular), but overall is still having a real strong year despite missing several key receivers. Rivers has thrown for 23 TD passes so far and the SD offense is 4th in scoring and 5th in passing. The Tampa Bay defense has been playing WAY over its head the L3 games, forcing a ton of turnovers, but I feel is due to start regressing, especially on third downs. The Bucs still rank only 26th in yards per play allowed. The Bucs shocked Seattle LW by scoring TD's on their first two drives. But from there, they didn't do much the rest of the game. Those two scoring drives constituted 140 total yards. For the rest of the game, they gained less than 200. Granted they were facing the Texans, but the Chargers' defense happens to be off its best performance of the year, allowing 13 pts and forcing four turnovers. Again, I'm not ready to write off Rivers, who is 35-21 ATS in his career in December/January. So often we see a team that plays Seattle struggle the following week due to the physical nature of the game. Such should be the case here. 10* San Diego | |||||||
12-04-16 | Redskins v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 23-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 53 m | Show |
8* Arizona (4:25 ET): Both of these teams have ties on their resume. But, generally speaking, those ties are the only recent result they have in common. Washington did lose on Thanksgiving, but they did something that few have been able to accomplish this season and that's cover at the Cowboys' expense. After starting the year 0-2 SU/ATS, the Skins have covered eight of their last nine games. They're 6-4-1 SU, meaning they're in the thick of the playoff race in the NFC. Meanwhile, Arizona was projected to be one of the top teams in the conference coming into the year, but instead has been one of the bigger underachievers. They're just 4-6-1 SU after being blown out at Atlanta last week. But I still have them rated slightly better than the Redskins, meaning any line under -3 is a bargain to me. Despite these teams seemingly going in opposite directions of late, the value is on the Cards. Lay the points. I'll tip my cap to Redskins' QB Kirk Cousins, who is proving himself to be a viable starter in this league. In retrospect, the old Cousins vs. RG3 debate seems ludicrous. Cousins and the Washington offense racked up plenty of yards last week against Dallas (505). But they'll be running into a far better defense here. In fact, Arizona is #1 in the league in yards allowed per game (293.9) and per play (4.9). They are #2 agianst the pass, allowing less than 200 YPG. Even though Atlanta blew them out LW, they were held to their fewest yard per play total of the season. Two of Cousins' top receiving threats - DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed - are both dealing w/ shoulder injuries, which could limit them. On the other side of the ball, I feel the Arizona offense, RB David Johnson specifically, match up well w/ a Washington defense that is a horrid 31st in yards per carry allowed. Only the 49ers are worse. Johnson leads the NFL in yards from scrimmage and I'll call for a big day from him here. The Cardinals have NEVER lost three in a row under Bruce Arians. I can't help but think what this line would have been just a few scant weeks ago. To me, the Cardinals' season is on the line here and they should deliver in kind. I remain unsold on the Redskins. 8* Arizona | |||||||
12-04-16 | Bills +3 v. Raiders | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -100 | 74 h 34 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (4:05 ET): Perhaps I'm in the minority here, but I believe the better team is getting points. Yes, the Raiders are 9-2 SU and winners of five straight. But, their YTD point differential is only +32 (less than 3 PPG), which is the second worst mark ever posted by a 9-2 SU squad since the 1970 merger! They have been winning close - a lot - as the last two weeks have featured narrow escapes over Houston and Carolina, teams ranked outside my top 20. Buffalo has a top five scoring differential in the league and is 2-0 SU/ATS since the bye, beating Jacksonville and Cincinnati. While 6-0 ATS on the road (including Mexico City game), the Raiders are just 1-4 ATS at home, which is where both SU losses have occurred. Take the points. Overall, Oakland has seven wins by seven points or less to its credit. I will always harp on this. While some will want to claim a team has some unprovable "clutch" ability in these situations, the reality is that a record like the Raiders have in games decided by 7 pts or less (7-1 SU) is a byproduct of good luck. The last two weeks have seen them outgained by both the Texans and Panthers. In each game, they entered the fourth quarter trailing. QB Derek Carr had a nasty dislocation of his finger LW and while he's been given "full clearance," moving forward, I can't help but think it could be an issue. Something else to consider is that this will be just the fifth time that the Raiders have been favored by a FG or more this season. They're just 2-2 SU previously, including an outright loss here at home to Atlanta in Wk 2. While Oakland's offense is deserving of accolades, the defense (sans Khalil Mack) has issues. The latter unit is giving up more than 28 PPG at home this year. Buffalo's defense is finally playing to what you'd expect from being under the tutiledge of Rex Ryan, having allowed just 12 and 21 pts in the L2 wks. They are 11th in the league, giving up just 5.4 yards per play. The Bills offense may be dead last in the league in passing, but they're #1 in rushing (157.4 YPG). While TE Charles Clay may be out, they should be getting back WR Sammy Watkins, which is a big deal. The Oakland defense is just 26th against the run. Eventually, the Raiders' luck has to start running out. 10* Buffalo | |||||||
12-04-16 | Davidson v. College of Charleston +4 | Top | 61-76 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
10* Coll of Charleston (4:00 ET): Davidson rolls into Charleston pretty hot as the Wildcats have won (and covered) four straight following a 78-57 beatdown of Mercer on Tuesday, their first "true" road tilt of the season. The lone loss on the resume of Bob McKillop's team was to Clemson, back in the second game of the season where they allowed 95 points. Meanwhile, Charleston has responded well after losing three straight, posting B2B wins over USC Upstate and Navy. Two of those three losses did take place at home (other at Villanova), but the Cougars are getting a few too many points, in my opinion, to pass up on here. It looks as if the line is climbing as well, so you may even want to wait a little bit before playing! Take the points. This is a double revenge spot for the home team as they've lost each of the last two seasons to Davidson, including by one on the road in 2015. They were 15-point road dogs LY. This was an old conference rivalry before Davidson ditched the SoCon for greener pastures. Last year's game featured a total of 19 lead changes and 11 ties and was a brutal defeat for the Cougars, who led 81-76 late (under 4 minutes to play), but allowed the Wildcats to score the game's final six points. So, what I'm saying is that motivation will not be lacking from the home side here. While I am a bit worried about Charleston and its shooting percentage going up against a Davidson team that's allowed it's six opponents to shoot only 37% from the field, the Cougars will not be intimidated here considering they've already faced the likes of Wake Forest and, both of whom are bigger and more athletic than Davidson. I think that Charleston is deserving of more respect than Mercer was and given the virtually identical lines, that doesn't seem to be the case. Granted, an adjustment had to be made after Davidson blew Mercer out, but I think the oddsmakers and now public are overreacting. 10* Coll of Charleston | |||||||
12-03-16 | Oklahoma State v. Maryland +1 | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
10* Maryland (9:00 ET): The Terps were embarrassed earlier this week, losing 73-59 to Pitt here in College Park. I went against them in what was their first loss of the season. They have yet to cover a spread here at home (0-3 ATS), but tonight they're not getting any respect against fellow 1-loss team Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are playing their first "true" road game of the year and considering they lost to Maryland by nine last year in Stillwater (as 9-pt favorites), I do not see them getting the job done here. It was an awful first half vs. Pitt on Tuesday. I was quite happy to look at the scores and see Maryland down 45-24 at the break as the likelihood they'd come back from that kind of deficit, let alone cover as a favorite, was quite minimal. But I did like how the Terps fought back to cut that deficit to eight. They held Pitt to 26 percent shooting in the second half after allowing them to convert at a 61% clip in the first half. I think that considering this was an unbeaten team entering the week, this is a pretty extraordinary price on Maryland here at home. I realize that I was quite dismissive of the Terps' unbeaten start in my analysis of the Pitt game, but this is a great value. I have the Pokes and Pitt rated fairly evenly, so the market has overadjusted here. OSU has given up at least 85 points in four of their seven games. That includes games vs. Central Arkansas and Rogers State. Many will point to the fact the Cowboys destroyed a Georgetown team (by 27) that Maryland only beat by a single point. But, I'm not sure that matters. Besides, it was a "true" road win for the Terps over the Hoyas. OSU isn't going to be able to simply outscore Maryland, like they did to some of the lesser teams on the schedule, and they are just 8-21 ATS as road underdogs of three points or less or a pick em. Consider that each of the Cowboys last three opponents have shot 51% or better and even Rogers State was at 56.9%, unfathomable given the talent discrepancy. Maryland will bounce back big-time offensively here. 10* Maryland | |||||||
12-03-16 | Penn State +3 v. Wisconsin | Top | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 40 m | Show |
10* Penn State (8:00 ET): This year's Big 10 Championship Game almost has the feel of a "bronze medal game" as the national perception is that LW's Ohio State-Michigan tilt determined the conference's true "champion." But the reality is that a game is to be played in Indianapolis and Penn State and Wisconsin both believe they have a shot at the College Football Playoff. And if either Clemson or Washington were to fall in their conference title games, the winner here has an excellent shot at moving up. Penn State, if they were to win Saturday night, would have a very legitimate argument for inclusion in the top four as they beat Ohio State head to head. They are one of the hottest teams in the entire country right now w/ eight straight wins and seven straight covers, so in what projects as a fairly even game, I'll take the points. The Nittany Lions have scored at least 39 points in five consecutive games. During this seven-game ATS win streak, they have won by two touchdowns six times and the other win was the upset of Ohio State. I give PSU a huge edge at the most important position, quarterback, with Trace McSorley. In the eight-game SU win streak, McSorely has a 16-2 TD-INT ratio. Meanwhile, Wisconsin may be w/o Alex Hornibrook (concussion), leaving Bart Houston as potentially the Badgers' only option under center. Houston threw for only 123 yds LW in a 31-17 win over Minnesota where the Badgers trailed entering the fourth quarter and were fortunate to force four turnovers. In the L5 games, the Wisconsin passing attack has averaged just 138.4 YPG and that's not going against the best Big 10 teams. Wisconsin has in fact been very fortunate to force 12 turnovers total the L3 wks. On the other side of the ledger, Penn State has turned it over just three times total in the L5 games. Most feel the Badgers have the better defense in this one, but note that the Nittany Lions were missing their entire starting LB corps against Michigan. Since getting Jason Cabinda and Brandon Bell back, they've been a lot stronger. The L3 wks have seen the Nittany Lions allow an average of just 294.7 YPG. These teams have actually not met since 2013 when PSU shocked Wisconsin as 24-point underdogs - in Madison. Don't discount the Nittany Lions' rather sizable edge on special teams either. Underdogs are 5-0 ATS all-time in Big 10 Championship Games including three outright upsets. 10* Penn State | |||||||
12-03-16 | Hawks +9 v. Raptors | Top | 84-128 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (7:35 ET): Over the L2 seasons, the Hawks and Raptors have each played the role of "bridesmaid" to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference. Last year was the Raptors' turn as they fell in six games to the eventual World Champs. That's better than Atlanta did in the 2015 Eastern Conf Finals (they were swept). This year has seen both teams emerge as potential contenders for the #2 spot, which Toronto currently holds thanks to a five-game win streak. Right now, it appears as if these teams are trending in very opposite directions as Atlanta has lost five in a row and eight of nine. The Raptors have not only won five straight, but covered six in a row. But these very different streaks have created a situation where there's now a ton of value on the Hawks. Take the points. Atlanta was destroyed last night, at home, by Detroit. The final score was 121-85 and that was a game the Hawks were 1.5-pt favorites. So, what happened? Well, the Pistons were red-hot from the floor, making 17 three-pointers, and the Hawks were not. Part of that was being w/o leading scorer Paul Milsap again, but the rest of the team was just 36.4% from the floor, including 25% from three-point range. Dwight Howard attempted only four shots and had just two points. He was called for five fouls, which didn't help. After missing 10 straight shots in the second quarter, the Hawks fell behind by 19 points. Needless to say, tonight can't possibly go as poorly. The Raptors are 6-2 SU/ATS the L2 years vs. the Hawks, going 3-1 each season. While Atlanta was blown out last night, Toronto destroyed the Lakers by 33. It was their third straight double digit win, but those came against the Sixers, Grizzlies and Lakers. The Raptors can't possibly continue this hot shooting as they've been 54% or higher from the floor in each of the L3 games. The Lakers shot just 34% last night. The back to back scenario has yet to bother the Hawks this season as they've gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in it, winning outright four times. They are also 6-1 ATS this year vs. teams w/ a winning record. They are still #2 in the league in defensive efficiency and I refuse to believe they are as bad as they've looked of late. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
12-03-16 | Baylor +17.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 49 h 0 m | Show |
8* Baylor (3:30 ET): I fully understand that it's a bit of toxic situation in Waco w/ an underacheiving team playing for a lame duck head coach. Following a 6-0 SU start, the Bears have lost five in a row coming into the regular season finale, which will be a challenge here in Morgantown. But w/ nothing to play for here themselves; WVU probably isn't looking to win by any kind of margin here. This number, which has been bet up throughout the course of the week, was already inflated to begin with. To me, the spread should be somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 pts, not 17. So we're getting some good value w/ a team that was 6-0 at one point and has actually been the betting favorite in four of their five losses. They put up over 600 total yds LW vs. Texas Tech, but were undone by a -4 turnover margin. Take the points. Baylor has had an extra day to prepare here, which is a bit of advantage. While they put up 634 total yards of offense last Friday, the Bears defense also gave up 600+ (646). While you might expect to find that the Bears have a poor pass defense, that's not really the case as they rank #2 in Big 12, allowing just 234.2 YPG. I do not expect WVU QB Skylar Howard to have the same kind of success he did LW vs. Iowa State where he somehow completed 12 passes for 330 yards, an average of 27.2 yards per completion w/ 5 TDs! On offense, Baylor still averages 36.2 PPG and even w/ a backup QB (Zach Smith), I expect them to put plenty of points on the board. Remember that this is a "plug and play" offense and virtually every QB in the system has thrived. This is almost unprecedented territory for the Bears as an underdog. They were 19.5-pt dogs at Oklahoma, but the previous two seasons had found them getting points just twice total and both lines were five-points or less. Though the final score read 49-19 last week for the Mountaineers, total yardage w/ Iowa State was fairly even. It was 613-561, but the key was being +4 in turnover margin, the opposite of Baylor's game last week. Given the # of total yards LW, you may not think this matters, but WVU is w/o its top three running backs and was forced to take the redshirt off Martell Pettaway. Though better Baylor teams have lost the L2 visits to Morgantown, I can't help but remember Baylor won LY's meeting in Waco 62-38 as 20-pt favorites. The market has moved far too much against Jim Grobe's team. 8* Baylor | |||||||
12-03-16 | Georgia Tech +5 v. Tennessee | Top | 58-81 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
8* Georgia Tech (1:00 ET): The Yellow Jackets are off just their second loss of the year. The final score at Penn State Tuesday was remarkably similar to their first loss, which took place back on 11.18 at home vs. Ohio U. They fell 67-60 in Happy Valley, as six point underdogs. (They were 3.5-pt home dogs in the 67-61 loss to Ohio). I'm hoping that the "third time will be the charm" for GT getting points as that's the scenario Saturday afternoon in Knoxville against Tennessee. The Vols have not played since Maui, a tournament which ended before Thanksgiving. They've played just five games overall and their lone win on the Island was against the host, D-II Chaminade. Their only other win this year was a wild 103-94 affair vs. Appalachian State. I believe the better team is getting points here. Georgia Tech shot just 36.4% against Penn State, yet was able to stay in the game virtually throughout. It was a two-point game w/ just two minutes to go. Three-point shooting (7 of 16) was able to keep them in the game. Getting to the free throw line only seven times didn't help. Not coincidentally, the Yellow Jackets' worst two shooting games of the year are also their two losses. With Tennessee giving up an average of 80 PPG thus far, I feel the Jackets should be able to put plenty of points on the board today. The three-point line could be huge here. I already mentioned that Georgia Tech was pretty sharp from distance last time out. Well, they also defended the arc well (Penn State missed 11 of 15 attempts). Meanwhile, Tennessee is not shooting the ball well from long range. They are at just 29% for the year, including 25.7% for the year. Therefore, it's odd that they've been able to still score so many as this is a relatively small team. Overall, the Vols are just 8-23 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons and 10-22 ATS in home games. They lost to Georgia Tech LY in Atlanta, by two, as seven-point underdogs. The line has shifted significantly in one year's time, too much I believe. Take the points. 8* Georgia Tech | |||||||
12-03-16 | Troy v. Georgia Southern +7.5 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
10* Georgia Southern (12:00 ET): Classic contrarian play here. Troy is absolutely overvalued here as they still have a chance to clinch a share of the Sun Belt title w/ a win. Appalachian State (idle this week) is already guaranteed no worse than a share at 7-1 SU in league play and there's a strong likelihood that Arkansas State will finish w/ the same record as they finish the regular season against the worst team in the country, Texas State. Troy had not lost a SBC game until being blown out by Arkansas State, 35-3, at home two weeks ago. They bounced back w/ a predictable 40-7 drubbing of Texas State last Saturday. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern had last weekend off. While the Eagles won't be going bowling this year, this is an excellent shot to play "spoiler" and the Seniors will definitely want to go out as winners (especially w/ this game being on ESPN2). Take the points. 1st year GSU HC Tyson Summers inherited a team that had gone 14-2 SU vs. the rest of the Sun Belt the last two years. They opened 2-0 in conference this year, 3-0 overall. But things have since gone "in reverse" in Statesboro as the team is 4-7 SU mark (3-4 conference). The Eagles played a challenging non-conference slate that included Ole Miss, Georgia Tech and Western Michigan. While Troy played Clemson tough early in the year, I'll argue that Georgia Southern is much better than its record. The Eagles have been outscored by only 2.6 PPG in Sun Belt action and just 0.2 PPG overall! Their last two games have both been losses by seven pts or less where they were favored. The market has clearly whiffed on Georgia Southern, who is 2-9 ATS including three outright losses as a favorite. In fact, they've gone just 1-6 ATS when asked to lay points. The only four teams that they were an underdog to are: Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Western Michigan and Appalachian State. Of those, App State was the lone home game. The Eagles were picked to finish ahead of the Trojans prior to the start of the year, so this line has to be viewed as a bargain, especially considering GSU was a six-point favorite AT Troy LY and won 45-10! In two meetings as SBC rivals, the Eagles have outscored the Trojans 87-20! 10* Georgia Southern | |||||||
12-03-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky -9.5 | Top | 44-58 | Win | 100 | 45 h 29 m | Show |
10* Western Kentucky (12:00 ET): With a 60-6 thrashing of Marshall last week (on the road!), WKU guaranteed itself a second consecutive appearance in the C-USA Title Game. Even better, because Louisiana Tech lost last week (39-24 as 15.5-pt road favorites), the Hilltoppers will play host for a second straight year as they look to make it B2B titles (they beat Southern Miss 45-28 as 8-pt favorites in LY's C-USA Title Game). This is a revenge spot for WKU, as they lost down in Ruston earlier this year, 55-52 as 3-pt favorites, a game they trailed by as many as 25 at one point. A furious rally fell short back in early October, but I believe there will be no need for a comeback effort here as the home team is 3-0 SU all-time as C-USA rivals and I look for the Hilltoppers to roll. Home teams have won the L4 C-USA Title games and 8 of 11 all-time. Lay the points. The regular season meeting was a Thursday night game. Like I said earlier, playing on the road, WKU fell into an early hole. That's odd considering the Hilltoppers have outscored opponents by 202 pts in the first half this year, the third largest margin in the FBS. They allowed 35 1H points in Ruston and trailed 49-24 midway through the fourth quarter. Though by no means a defensive stalwart, the number of points allowed in the 1st Half vs. La Tech was more than they allowed in all but two other games. One was vs. Alabama! Besides 'Bama and La Tech, the Hilltoppers only other loss was by 1 pt at Vanderbilt. Obviously, it goes w/o saying that this is an outstanding offensive team, one that is tied for 5th in points per game nationally (w/ LA Tech!) at 44 PPG. They are third in TD drives of three plays or less (21), tied w/ Louisville. Though they didn't show it in the regular season meeting, WKU really has a significant edge defensively here. They allow just 22.4 PPG overall and 16.7 PPG here in Bowling Green. Meanwhile, La Tech allows 30.6 PPG overall and 33.3 PPG on the road. It was a crushing loss LW in Hattiesburg for the Bulldogs as they were outgained 426-254 (-10 in first downs) by a 5-6 Southern Miss team. Since losing to LA Tech, WKU has won six in a row, the last five all by 28 pts or greater. They've won those L5 games by a combined score of 265-61! This spread should be closer to two touchdowns. 10* Western Kentucky | |||||||
12-02-16 | Wizards v. Spurs -9.5 | Top | 105-107 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Greg Popovich may be ornery, but if he were to state that his team is no better than third right now in the Western Conference, he would not be incorrect. But as much as the early returns on the Spurs' 2016-17 campaign have been a little disappointing (at least compared to those of the Warriors and Clippers), this remains one of the best teams in the league. Sure, they dumped a game to Orlando (here at home!) earlier in the week and then followed that up by barely beating a terrible Dallas team on the road. But the ornery Popovich, I believe, will have his team ready to go tonight against Washington, a team in far worse shape right now than San Antonio. Lay the points. If you want to talk disappointments, how about the Wizards? Scott Brooks inherited what most believed was a pretty talented roster, led by John Wall and Bradley Beal, but the Wiz are going nowhere fast. Currently, they are 6-11 SU after "giving one away" at Oklahoma City Wednesday night. That was an overtime game and I see the loss being difficult to get over. They are now 1-5 ATS as an underdog and just 1-6 SU on the road. They've not fared well against teams w/ winning records either and their last three wins came against Sacramento, Orlando and Phoenix. A big problem is they are giving up 105.7 PPG and that number goes even higher on the road. This despite playing at a much slower place compared to last year. Washington has not won in San Antonio since 1999 and I wouldn't look for that streak to come to a halt anytime soon. Keep in mind that these teams have already met once this year and the Spurs won comfortably in D.C., 112-100 as 5.5-pt favorites. Using that line as a baseline for tonight's pointspread, you would then figure San Antonio would be asked to lay double digits. I wouldn't be surprised if the number got there as I don't think bettors will put much stock into the fact this team has already lost four times at home. I also put little to no stock in that as te Spurs are simply the way better team here. 8* San Antonio | |||||||
12-02-16 | Wolves +2 v. Knicks | Top | 114-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (7:35 ET): Thus far, the T'wolves have been real money-burners at the betting window. Their 5-13 ATS record is a league worst and in the interest of full disclosure, if it weren't for them, my NBA record would be pretty fantastic. I admit to taking them Wednesday, in this first game of a home and home w/ the Knicks, which they promptly lost 106-104 as 3.5-point favorites. But as was the case Wednesday, I still believe Minnesota to be the better team on Friday. Sure, they aren't very good defensively, but the Knicks remain worse and are being outscored by 3.5 pts per 100 possessions. Early line movement seems to indicate the "sharps" are w/ me on this one as well. Take the points. Wednesday's game wasn't decided until Carmelo Anthony sunk the GW jumper w/ 2.3 seconds remaining. That negated an incredible effort by Karl-Anthony Towns, who led all scorers w/ 47 points and added 18 rebounds. Also, the T'wolves (for once!) closed the game strong, using a 20-3 run to tie the game up prior to Anthony's game-winner. Note that this is Minnesota's third three-game losing streak of the year. But they are a perfect 2-0 SU/ATS off the previous two, beating Orlando by 16 (on the road) and Phoenix by 13 (also on the road). Wednesday was the team's fourth loss already by four points or less. I will continue to maintain that the T'wolves are better than the record shows and better than the Knicks. New York continues to give up an average of 106.1 PPG, which is problematic when you're favored. In defensive efficiency, they are tied for 26th. I'm very surprised to see that the Knicks have covered seven of nine, but note that four of those SU wins have been by four points or less. So, what it boils down to here is the Knicks have been coming out on the right side of some close games while the opposite is true for the T'wolves. I look for that trend to reverse itself here as Minnesota is far too talented to continue losing like this. Courtney Lee is doubtful for the Knicks tonight while Joakim Noah is questionable. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
12-01-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. Cal Poly -7 | Top | 47-59 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
10* Cal Poly (11:00 ET): TX-San Antonio is not a good team at all; they currently rank outside of the top 300 in most projection systems. So the fact they are off a win, as five-point dogs no less, can be used against them here. Even if it means a half-hearted endorsement of a Cal Poly team I just went AGAINST not that long ago. Granted, the Mustangs sit outside the top 250 themselves and are off an unsuccessful stint in DeKalb for Northern Illinois' Thanksgiving Classic Tournament. But returning home, laying a relatively short number, should not be an issue against this weak opponent. While this is the first D-I opponent they've played in their gym, the Mustangs are 2-0 SU at home so far w/ both wins coming by double digits. The game that I went against Cal Poly was last Friday vs. Illiniois-Chicago as they were actually four-point favorites at a neutral site and ended up losing 84-71. Note that came on the heels of upsetting the tournament host (as 10-pt underdogs), two days earlier. The Mustangs did not shoot the ball well against UIC (only 38.5%) and fell into a rather sizable halftime hole that they could not climb out of. In fact, they missed 23 of 31 field goal attempts in the first half. Things were better the following day against Elon, where the Mustangs in fact had a slight halftime advantage. But attempting 14 less free throws for the game proved to be a difference maker there and helped turn a game that was tied w/ a little over four minutes remaining into a six-point loss. Still though, Cal Poly actually covered the closing line (+6.5). After allowing 52% shooting in the last two games, Cal Poly's defense should be a lot better here. I say that knowing full well that TX-San Antonio is shooting a woeful 37.4% from the field for the year, including 25.5% from three-point range. The Roadrunners have shot better than 40% in only one game all year (Prairie View A&M) and in their two wins were the beneficiaries of opponents shooting the ball even more dreadfully. One was the Prairie View A&M game (31.5%) and then last Friday, Texas State finished at just 30.0% on ALL field goal attempts (scored just 48 points). The Roadrunners are just 1-6 SU following a game where they allowed 60 or less points. 10* Cal Poly | |||||||
12-01-16 | Clippers +5 v. Cavs | Top | 113-94 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (8:05 ET): Though Cleveland is off a loss here, just their second all year w/ LeBron James in the lineup, I'm going to trust my numbers, which suggest this should be a pick em game. Yes, the Clippers have now lost three in a row, including embarrassing setbacks to both Indiana and Brooklyn. But let us not totally disregard their strong start to the season, particularly on the defensive end where they were ranked #1 in efficiency for the first several weeks (currently #2 behind Atlanta). Meanwhile, the Cavs' defense has been somewhat suspect all year, currently ranking 15th in the league. This will be just the second time this year that LA is an underdog and I had them the first time, when they went to San Antonio and won outright. Take the points. Since LeBron returned to Cleveland, the Cavaliers have swept all four meetings w/ the Clippers. They are also a perfect 4-0 ATS. But this appears to be a better Clippers team, particularly on the defensive end. Though it's still a "bad" loss, don't be fooled by the 127 pts they allowed to Brooklyn as that game went to double OT (was a brutal beat for me, as I had the Under). After HC Doc Rivers was tossed from that game, I expect him to have his team highly motivated to end this three-game losing streak. Also, Blake Griffin will be back in the lineup after missing Tuesday's game. That's a big boost. This is also one of the few offenses that may be able to keep pace w/ Cleveland. In addition to ranking #2 in efficiency on the defensive end, the Clips are #5 in offense. The Cavs are #3 in offensive efficiency, but #15 on defense. Despite the great SU record, they have not been a "hit" at the betting window as their 6-9-1 ATS record ranks near the bottom of the league. That can be tied to the number of points per game they are currently allowing (103.7), which is problematic when you're favored in virtually every game. My numbers say this game should basically be a pick em, so I'll take the points here as Cleveland has struggled in B2B games. They are just 11-18 ATS since LeBron returned (two years ago) when off a double digit loss. 8* LA Clippers | |||||||
11-30-16 | Knicks v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 106-104 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:05 ET): One of these teams is overachieving, the other is underachieving. The former distinction belongs to a Knicks team that many in Vegas have foolishly wagered on as if they're a legitimate NBA Finals contender. They are not. Not only are they beating outscored by 3.7 pts per 100 possessions, they are tied for fourth worst in defensive efficiency. We've started to see them regress back to the mean w/ a pair of losses in recent days, first to Charlotte and then one to Oklahoma City. Here, they travel to Minnesota to face a T'wolves team w/ plenty of talent, despite the less than stellar early season results. This is the front end of a home and home and I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Minnesota swept. Lay the points tonight. Much has been written on why the T'wolves are not living up to their potential thus far, but know this: despite a 5-12 SU record, they are only being outscored by roughly one point per 100 possessions. They are just outside the top 10 in offensive efficiency, so look for them to take advantage of the sorry Knicks defense tonight. Already, there have been about a half dozen instances where Minny has lost a game SU in which it held a double-digit lead. For whatever reason, their shooting tends to dip rather dramatically in the second half of games. In the first half, they rate as the most efficient offense in the game! That really makes no sense, so look for a young team to "learn how to close" better as we move forward. I'd definitely rather have Karl Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins than Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose. Monday night vs. Utah was yet another example though of the T'wolves letting one get away. After rallying to take the lead in the fourth quarter, they lost 112-103. But I still feel tonight's game can be the beginning of a turnaround. The Knicks allow a frightening 111.7 PPG on the road where they are just 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS. Minnesota has struggled to cover the spread in home games the L3 seasons (32-55 ATS!), but are underpriced for a change here tonight. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
11-30-16 | Pistons +7.5 v. Celtics | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
8* Detroit (7:35 ET): The Pistons turned in a really strong effort last night, beating Charlotte on the road, 112-89 (as four-point underdogs). Yet they're certainly not getting much respect tonight here in Boston. One would have to assume they're being falsely penalized for the back to back situation, but we can use that to our advantage here and grab what I believe - clearly - is an inflated number. Boston was expected to be the #2 team in the East this year (behind Cleveland), but has yet to play anywhere near that level. In fact, I have them rated as the sixth best team in the East right now, which is actually lower than last season! While they've covered three straight times as a favorite, the Celtics are laying too many here. Interestingly enough, the C's have won their last four road games, but lost two in a row here at home. That has more to do w/ who they've played as the last two teams to come here to Beantown were Golden State and San Antonio. Their last four visits were to Detroit, Brooklyn, Minnesota and Miami. Yes, Detroit is included in there as they beat the Pistons 94-92 as two-point underdogs back on November 19th. I didn't see enough there or subsequently to justify this rather sizable shift in the marketplace. Boston still ranks in the middle of the pack in terms of defensive efficiency. Al Horford is back from paternity leave, but I still don't think that alone justifies the price increase. Over the last 19 days, the Celtics have only one win by more than eight points and it was against sorry Brooklyn. Making the Pistons blowout of the Hornets all the more impressive was that they did so largely w/o the services of Andre Drummond, who was ejected in the second quarter for throwing an elbow. While still only 2-8 ATS on the road this year, I think we'll start to see the Pistons take advantage of some generous spreads like this one. They too were expected to make a leap in the Eastern Conference standings and early on it appeared as if the "cart had been put before the horse." But over the L5 games, they're holding teams to just 95 PPG and that includes a really impressive win over the Clippers. Taking the points is the way to go here. 8* Detroit | |||||||
11-30-16 | Rutgers v. Miami (Fla) -17 | Top | 61-73 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Miami FL (7:00 ET): Following last night's proceedings, we're down to only 19 remaining unbeatens in College Hoops. Three went down yday: Maryland (who I faded), Houston and Tennessee State. More of these teams are likely (guaranteed) to fall in the coming days and tonight I'm targeting Rutgers, who seems like the surest of the bunch to go down. Not only are the Scarlet Knights the second weakest of those 19 remaining unbeatens (only Texas A&M-CC weaker), they are huge underdogs tonight at Miami. But I don't think the spread is large enough as the 'Canes should absolutely roll Wednesday night as they return home smarting off B2B losses. Lay the points. Though Miami is not in the Top 25, I believe them to be worthy of discussion for being ranked. Yes, they did just lose to Iowa State and Florida in the Advocare Invitational, but those are both worthy adversaries. Poor shooting, not to mention turnovers, cost them in both contests. They shot just 37.7 percent from the floor against Florida and 36.0 percent vs. ISU. There were a combined 32 turnovers. I envision the shooting will improve tonight and the number of turnovers will come down. This will be just the third "true" home game for Jim Laranaga's team. They did beat a good Stanford team in their first game in Lake Buena Vista. Defensively, I see no issues as the team ranks 28th in FG% defense (37.4) and 12th in scoring (58.7 PPG). Tip your cap to this start from Rutgers as the program has not had a winning season since 2005-06. They went 7-25 SU last year, including a horrendous 1-17 mark in the Big 10. But before we go anointing the Scarlet Knights anything that they are not, let's note they have yet to play anyone of any real substance these first six games. They're off a narrow, two-point win over Hartford where the GW basket was scored w/ just six seconds remaining. My guess is that had that result gone the other way (which it easily could have), then this line would be much higher and basically where it SHOULD be. In fact, the Scarlet Knights actually trailed Hartford at one point by as many as 13 pts in the second half! This team does not shoot the ball well at all (just 43%) and has been fortunate to get bailed out by an unsustainable rebounding rate. They won't have that here and you have to figure the shooting woes will continue against a strong defensive foe like Miami. 8* Miami | |||||||
11-30-16 | Ohio v. Marshall +1 | Top | 88-98 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* Marshall (7:00 ET): It's yet another unbeaten that I'm targeting on Wednesday, this one happening to be Ohio University. The Bobcats are 4-0 SU, easily the fewest wins of any of the 19 remaining unbeaten teams in the land, and hardly crack my own top 100. The do have a win over Georgia Tech, on the road no less, but tonight I don't see them having that kind of success in Huntington, WV where Marshall awaits, looking to exact revenge from an 85-70 loss in Athens LY. The Thundering Herd also are off their first defeat of 2016, that coming at the hands of Ohio State on Friday, 111-70. After suffering that kind of blowout and already looking for revenge, I look for the Herd to come out highly motivated this evening. When these teams met last season, Ohio enjoyed a sizable edge in free throw attempts (+20!) and w/ 12 more makes than Marshall, that was essentially responsible for the final margin. It should also be pointed out that the Bobcats shot the ball quite well (50.8%). But it's a little concerning to see that they were at only 37.3% from the field against Tennessee Tech on Friday, a game they failed to cover as 16.5-point chalk. It should also be pointed out that OU was 11.5-point favorites last season, so Marshall has obviously improved. The Thundering Herd are likely to do better than 22.7% shooting from three-point range (5-22) now that they're at home. Both teams defend the three-pointer well, but Marshall does it better. Opponents are shooting just 28.6% from behind the arc against them this year and that's after Ohio State's blistering performance on Friday. Meanwhile, it's really just one game helping Ohio's three-point FG% defense, that being the upset of Georgia Tech (youngest team in the country!) where the Yellow Jackets were a dreadful 3 of 11. Kenny Kaminski made five three-pointers in that game, but his status is listed as questionable for tonight due to a shoulder injury. That looms large. Meanwhile, Marshall gets back starter Ryan Taylor after the one-game suspension vs. Ohio State. That suspension was actually HC Dan D'Antoni's decision due to Taylor getting ejected from the team's 71-61 win over Jackson State. I like Marshall in this one. 10* Marshall | |||||||
11-29-16 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Arizona (10:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only were I am taking the Coyotes +1.5. The 'Yotes have actually B2B games, both over Edmonton, by one goal. They also hold a recent one-goal victory over tonight's opponent, the Sharks, making it three one-goal wins in the last four games. Not to be outdone, six of San Jose's last seven games have been decided by one goal, including all four losses. They fell 3-2 at home to Anaheim on Saturday, following a 3-2 win over the Islanders on Friday. With all of these recent one-goal games, on both sides, playing the puck line here seems to be a logical move. The last three meetings between these Pacific Division rivals have all stayed Under, including two surprising Coyotes wins so far in 2016. Both games were 3-2 finals, yet saw Arizona outshot significantly. They actually allowed 86 total shots to the Sharks, so it's somewhat miraculous that they managed to go 2-0. The last one went into overtime. Overall, four of the 'Yotes' last six games have gone into OT, which is all we need here. Also, 14 of their 20 games this season have been decided by a one goal margin! Again, a one-goal game either way works to our benefit tonight. In the same vein, 13 of the Sharks' 22 games this year have been decided by one goal. In their last six road games, Arizona has suffered just one regulation loss. Goaltender Mike Smith is having a pretty good season and has been red hot of late w/ a .935 save percentage his L4 starts. He's also played well in the past against San Jose, turning in a 2.09 goals against average, .946 save percentage and two shutouts. It was a season-high 43 saves that he made the last time these teams met and he made 41 more saves Sunday vs. Edmonton. The Sharks have not won a game by more than one goal in three weeks! 8* Puck Line Arizona +1.5 | |||||||
11-29-16 | NC State v. Illinois +2 | Top | 74-88 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
10* Illinois (9:00 ET): Though I'm not feeling too good about the Big 10's overall prospects in this year's "Challenge" vs. the ACC, here's a game where I feel the conference can "steal one." Granted, John Groce's Fighting Illini come into this one having not covered a single game in 2016. But, even after three consecutive losses, I like this line a lot. NC State is off a real nailbiter, 79-77 over Loyola IL, which was their second two-point victory of this campaign already. The first came in the opener against Georgia Southern. The Wolfpack were double digit favorites in both of those games, so imagine what is likely to ensue in a matchup perceived to be far more even by the oddsmakers. Take the points. A Thanksgiving trip to Brooklyn did not go well for Illinois, but they also had to take on pair of ranked teams in consecutive nights. The first was West Virginia and they were humiliated there, 89-57. Friday saw them go down by double digits again, this time "only" 72-61, at Florida State's expense. That was actually a tie game w/ less than 10 minutes to play, so don't let the final score mislead you. As uninspiring as those results may be, NC State will absolutely be a drop in class for the Fighting Illini in terms of opponent and I imagine Groce will have his team highly motivated as they return home off three consecutive losses. Over the past two seasons, the Illini are a perfect 2-0 SU and ATS when taking the court on a three-game losing streak. NC State is still w/o Maverick Rowan (concussion) as tonight will be the fifth consecutive game that he's missed. This is in addition to another player, Omer Yurtseven, being suspended for the first nine games of the season. Note that it was not easy for the Wolfpack on Saturday against Loyola IL as they fell behind by double digits in the first half. Granted, the Ramblers were red-hit from three-point range (58.8%), but that probably shouldn't have happened in Raleigh. Now they play a "true" road game for the first time all year. I look for Malcolm Hill to play better for Illinois tonight as the team avoids what would be a second straight loss to an ACC opponent. 10* Illinois | |||||||
11-29-16 | Pittsburgh +4 v. Maryland | Top | 73-59 | Win | 100 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (7:00 ET): Early returns have indicated that this year's ACC vs. Big 10 Challenge may end up a fairly one-sided affair in favor of the former. Now, you wouldn't deduce that judging from last night's 1-1 split, but rather the body of work that lies outside the official "Challenge" where ACC teams rocked their Big 10 counterparts in a number of early season matchups. The ACC has not won this event since 2008, but already is 7-1 head to head vs. the Big 10 in 2016! Interesting is that of the 22 teams still w/o a loss nationally, six will be participating in this event. That should make for some interesting fade opportunities, including this one w/ 7-0 Maryland, who will get perhaps their stiffest test to date w/ a visit from Pittsburgh. Take the points. The Terps may be unbeaten, but this has the "feel" of a pretty even matchup. Pitt has lost only one time, to SMU at a neutral site. I think that a big key here is the fact Maryland is coming off a much tougher weekend and may have less "in the tank." While Pitt made 11 three-pointers in a 76-63 win over Morehead State on Friday, Maryland had to play close games w/ both Richmond and Kansas State Friday & Saturday in Brooklyn. The 69-68 win over Kansas State, as three-point underdogs, saw Melo Trimble make a layup w/ 6.9 seconds remaining to give the Terps the win. It was the team's second upset of the year already as early in the campaign, they went to Georgetown and won 76-75 as 6.5-pt dogs, a game that the Hoyas basically gave away and was again won by Trimble in the final seconds w/ a pair of free throws. So that's two last second, one-point victories for Maryland in seven games, which is pretty fortunate. In fact, they already have five wins by six points or less! That includes home games against American and Towson State. Teams are going to start shooting better from three-point range against the Terps than they have been thus far (28.7%). Earlier, if you recall, I mentioned the fact that Pitt sank 11 three-pointers in their last game. They come in averaging 81.3 PPG overall. With the spread being so short, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if this ends up being an outright win by the dog. 8* Pittsburgh | |||||||
11-28-16 | Butler -2 v. Utah | Top | 68-59 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
8* Butler (9:00 ET): It speaks volumes to the discrepancy between the the two teams that Butler comes in favored here in Salt Lake City. To me, the Bulldogs are a Top 25 team. But I can't say the same for the host Utes, even though they too are still undefeated. Butler has raced out to a 6-0 SU start, including wins over Vanderbilt and Arizona on consecutive nights (Thurs and Fri) over Thanksgiving Night. This marks their first "true" road game, but the Bulldogs also represent Utah's first "real" competition. The Utes' 4-0 SU start includes wins over the likes of NW Nazarene, Concordia, Coppin State and UC-Riverside. The two D-I opponents both rank outside my top 250 w/ 0-7 Coppin State being one of the worst teams in the entire country. Butler is both better overall and more battle-tested. Lay the short number. With six new players on the roster, many though this would be a rebuilding year for Butler. Think again? They proved they are for real by beating the #8 ranked team in the land (Arizona) Friday in Las Vegas. It's not like that win surprised the oddsmakers; the Bulldogs actually came in as the slight favorite! Again, I feel this is one of the 20 best teams in the country right now. While shooting the ball at a 50% clip themselves, including 38.5% from three-point range, Butler is holding its opponents to just 41.3% from the field. By the way, they've also now covered 22 of the last 32 non-conference games! Already, they have three wins over Power 5 teams (N'western, Vandy, Arizona). All we really know about Utah at this point is they are tall. The schedule thus far has been ranked as the easiest in all of Division I! Like Butler, there's been a lot of roster turnover from last year. The fact the Utes have won 32 straight at home vs. non-conference foes should be respected, but again this line "speaks for itself." Butler probably will be in the Top 25 by tipoff and I see them staying there. 8* Butler | |||||||
11-28-16 | Packers v. Eagles -3.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:25 ET): Let's just come out and say it - the Packers are simply not a very good football team in 2016. They arrive here in the City of Brotherly Love on a four-game losing streak after being blown out last Sunday night by Washington, 42-24. Curiously, the line is roughly the same this week, on the road against another NFC East foe. I think that's the oddsmakers taking advantage of the fact GB continues to be a very "public" team in spite of all the losing. The Eagles are actually a much tougher opponent than the Redskins as the former comes in ranked an impressive fourth in the league in point differential. Normally, I might be scared of laying "the hook," but in this instance, I'm envisioning a double digit win for the home team. Lay the points. I have to admit that I was very wrong about the Eagles. Coming into the year, I projected them to be one of the worst teams in all of football. They're currently 5-5 SU, but the reality is that they are even better than that record. Were it not for an 0-4 SU record in games decided by 7 pts or less (all on the road), they'd be in better shape. Here at home, they're a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS, outscoring opponents by 17.5 PPG. Two weeks ago, they held the high-flying Falcons to just 15 points here. This is one of the best defenses in the entire league right now as not only are they seventh in yards allowed per game, they're fifth in scoring. At home, they allow an average of just 9.5 PPG! Green Bay, on the other hand, has quite the lousy defense. Their secondary was absolutely shredded LW by Kirk Cousins and overall they allowed a frightening 8.62 yards per play. A big reason for that is they are down both starting corners and both starting inside linebackers! Can Carson Wentz take advantage? I think so. Overall, this Packers' D is allowing a 71% completion percentage on the road! While Aaron Rodgers is still great, he has no support and no run game to speak of. Another "hidden" edge for the Eagles in this game lies on special teams, they are one of the best in the league in the "third phase" of the game while the Packers are one of the worst, particularly when it comes to covering kickoffs. Green Bay has won only two of the last 10 times it has been an underdog. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
11-27-16 | Stanford +4 v. Seton Hall | Top | 66-52 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
10* Stanford (7:00 ET): This is the final day of the Advocare Invitational as Stanford and Seton Hall play a consolation game. Both teams lost in the first day of the event, Stanford to Miami FL and Seton Hall to Florida. Each bounced back yday. Stanford beat Indiana State 65-62, but failed to cover as six-point favorites. Seton Hall took on Quinnipiac and while they won 90-79, the too failed to cover (as lofty 22-point favorites). You may recall from a play earlier this year that I've identified the Cardinal as a 'play on' team for 2016. Meanwhile, as you may also recall, I just played against Seton Hall vs. Florida, citing the Pirates' ATS record from last season as a driving force to fade them more often than not this season. Take the points. Things started well this year for Stanford as they opened 4-0 SU, covering their first three lined games. I had them in the opener against Harvard, a game they won 80-70 as 3.5-point favorites. They followed that w/ dominating wins over CS-Northridge and Weber State. A 16-point spread proved to be too much against Colorado State, though they still won SU, 56-49. Poor shooting has hurt them here in Lake Buena Vista though. Against Miami, things started well w/ a nine-point first half lead. But after going into the break up by just four, they allowed Miami to shoot a ridiculous 62.5% after halftime. Stanford shot just 41.2% and was actually worse against Indiana State (36.5%) despite winning that one. It took a massive edge at the free throw line and a last second three to pull out the 65-62 win Friday, but I still liked what I saw enough to endorse the Cardinal here. Seton Hall, unlike Stanford, has shot the ball well this season. The one exception though was the game I went against them. They made only 42.9% from the floor against Florida, scoring a season-low 76 points. But while the Pirates can score, can they play defense? They've allowed an average of 81 points the L3 games, so as a favorite it's going to be tough to cover. While they were 22-10-1 at the betting window last year, Seton Hall is just 1-3 ATS this year, the lone cover being the upset at Iowa. Bad news (for them) is that Pirates starting forward Ismael Sanogo is a game-time decision due to a shoulder issue. Defensively, the Cardinal are the much better team here as they hold teams to just 36.9% shooting overall, including 26.7% from three-point range. 10* Stanford | |||||||
11-27-16 | Ottawa +10.5 v. Calgary | Top | 33-39 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
10* Ottawa (6:00 ET): The Stampeders are the overwhelming favorites here, but it is the REDBLACKS that are in this game for a second consecutive season. Obviously, there is no denying that the Stamps should be favored as they were - by far - the best team in the league this year. They come into the Grey Cup sporting a 15-2-1 SU record and have outscored opponents by over 200 pts over the course of the season. For the sake of comparison, Ottawa has actually been OUTSCORED this season. Calgary just rolled B.C. in the Western Final, 42-15, and led that game 32-0 at halftime. But let's not discount what Ottawa did, upsetting Edmonton 35-23 as two-point dogs in spite of a -3 turnover margin. I'm taking the points here. Since Ottawa returned to the league three years ago, these teams have met a total of six times. Calgary has four wins, all by double digits. But the other two games have seen Ottawa produce a win and a tie. The tie came earlier this year and while Calgary won the rematch in Alberta, 48-23, let's note the line. They were eight-point favorites at McMahon Stadium in September. Now they're laying more points at a neutral setting. For what it's worth, the Stamps two losses and tie all came away from home this year. With this game being played in Toronto, the REDBLACKS should "feel more at home" and have the edge in crowd support. As always, we can use public perception to our benefit. The CFL certainly isn't the most "public" sport, but overwhelmingly, everyone is picking the Stampeders to win here. Because of that, we have an inflated line. Because they clinched the Western Division, Calgary has played only one meaningful game in the L7 weeks (last week). For 7.5 quarters, Ottawa played them really tough in the regular season, not just in the tie, but the rematch in Calgary was actually an eight-point game w/ just five minutes remaining. The Stamps scored two late TD's there for somewhat of a misleading final. Ottawa has the best passing attack in the league (6,000+ yards!) and QB Henry Burris didn't even play in either regular season matchup w/ Calgary. Meanwhile, the Redblacks defense held Jerome Messam to just 128 yards total in the two games. I look for this to be a close and exciting Grey Cup! 10* Ottawa | |||||||
11-27-16 | Chargers -2.5 v. Texans | Top | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 4 h 40 m | Show |
10* San Diego (1:00 ET): While an early start time and bet to the role of favoritism, the reality is this is a great spot for the Chargers. They are coming off a bye while the Texans just played Monday night, in Mexico City no less. In all due respect, Houston is just not a very good team. Granted, a pretty clear case could be made that they deserved to beat the Raiders, but San Diego should have beaten the Raiders too. I've said it before, but it bears repeating that the Lightning Bolts are much better than their record shows. That take is reaffirmed by the fact they are +14 in scoring differential. Meanwhile, Houston has been outscored by 34 points so far, fourth worst in the AFC. So what I'm saying is that San Diego absolutely should be favored here. Lay the points. There have been multiple games this year that the Chargers lost that they probably should have won. Last time we saw them, they outgained Miami, only to be undone by four Philip Rivers INT's. That's a very uncharactertistic performance from the veteran signal-caller. That said, the team does lead the league in turnovers, something that can easily be rectified. The bye has allowed several injured players to return, one of them ILB Denzel Perryman. There's no denying which side has the better offense here; San Diego averages 29.2 points per game. Look for Rivers to use his tight ends and running backs out of the backfield w/ a great deal of success. Oakland's Derek Carr went 11 of 12 for 199 yds and two touchdowns on such pass attempts Monday night. The Texans come in averaging only 18.1 PPG and w/o question are one of the worst offenses in the league. They'd been held under 300 total yards in four of their five games previous to MNF. One would have to think that there's some serious "buyer's remorse" going on w/ QB Brock Osweiler right about now. Can you believe this offense has gone four straight games w/o a pass play of 25+ yards? Osweiler is completing only 54 percent of his pass attempts to talented WR DeAndre Hopkins. Yes, I know the Texans are unbeaten at home this year (5-0 SU/4-0-1 ATS), but they are just 1-4 SU/ATS L3 seasons as a home dog of three pts or less. The Chargers are a remarkable 27-4 ATS L31 games vs. the AFC South. 10* San Diego | |||||||
11-27-16 | Giants v. Browns +6.5 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -101 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The 0-11 Browns are rapidly running out of spots to pick up their 1st win. I realize that they probably are not the team that you want to see endorsed in this space, however, this just might be their best remaining spot to record the elusive SU win. My only concern is this is their 12th consecutive game w/o a bye. But that's mitigated by the fact that the Giants' 7-3 SU record is quite misleading. Big Blue has actually outscored its opponents by only four points ALL SEASON and unlike LY have generally been winning their games close. A close Giants win (as in less than 7 pts) is just fine by me here as I'll be taking the points. All seven NY wins this year have been by seven points or less, incuding a come from behind effort LW, at home, against the lowly Bears. Let's go back to last week, shall we? The G-Men fell behind 16-6 early in the second quarter, but the defense pitched a shutout from that point on and they were able to rally for a 22-16 win. However, it was a fourth straight pretty pedestrian effort from Eli Manning and the offense, which is currently thing along the offensive line. Going back to last month, they gained only 232 total yards in a 17-10 road win over the Rams. After that came a bye and then three consecutive home games. Eagles' QB Carson Wentz essentiallt gifted them a win w/ two early INT's. Then, on a Monday nighter, they were fortunate to convert a late fourth down gamble to get by the Bengals. Then came the Bears last week. The fact that every Giants win has been by a TD or less should give the Browns some hope here. Though 0-11 SU and 2-9 ATS, the Browns have made a habit of hanging tough most games. Last week, there were two plays that radically altered the result here at home vs. Pittsburgh. The first came on an untimed down at the end of the first half following a pretty bogus pass interference call. The Steelers took advantage w/ a TD + 2 pt conversion. The second was a strip sack in the end zone w/ just 3:36 remaining in the game, which was the Steelers only other TD. Take those two fluke plays away and it was a dead even game. The week prior, the Browns led Baltimore outright at the half! They also led the Jets big at the half, here at home, a few weeks ago. I don't think Josh McCown is any worse of an option under center than anything else HC Hue Jackson can choose from. No team wants to lose every game, obviously, so look for Cleveland to continue fighting. This is the most points that the Giants have had to lay in any game this year and it's on the road. 10* Cleveland |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |