Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-01-21 | Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson | Top | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 46 h 6 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (8:00 ET): Coming into this College Football season, it seemed as if three teams stood above the rest: Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State. Those names shouldn’t be too surprising seeing as those three schools have combined to win five of the six College Football Playoffs (LSU last year was the only exception). Sure enough all three schools are back in the CFP this year and #3 Ohio State will play #2 Clemson in the Sugar Bowl, a rematch of last year’s semi final, which took place in the Orange Bowl. You’re likely to hear a LOT about LY’s Orange Bowl in the build to this game. I know I remember it as the Buckeyes were my 10* Bowl Game of the Year and raced out to a 16-0 lead in less than 25 minutes. But they ended up losing 29-23 and not covering as 2.5-point underdogs, thus dropping to 0-4 SU all-time vs. Clemson, two of those losses coming in CFP semis. For this year’s rematch, it seems as if Ohio State is really being “written off.” I don’t understand that as this remains a supremely talented team and revenge is obviously a major factor. The Buckeyes didn’t exactly face a tough regular schedule this year, but they still won all six games by an average of more than three touchdowns per game. They were dealing with massive attrition from COVID-19 (22 players out) in the Big 10 Championship Game when they “only” beat Northwestern 22-10. HC Ryan Day has said he expects “a good number” of those players who sat out the Big 10 Champ Game to play here. Meanwhile, Clemson just announced it will be without OC Tony Elliott (COVID) for this game. Elliott is the play-caller. Look, I’m not going to say that the Tigers shouldn’t be favored here. But the line should not be more than a field goal. Take the points. 8* Ohio State | |||||||
01-01-21 | Wright State -7.5 v. Oakland | Top | 90-51 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
10* Wright State (7:00 ET): What a wild season Oakland (MI) has had. The Golden Grizzlies opened by losing their first nine games. But then they were fortunate enough to run into in-state rival Detroit Mercy right before the New Year. They won both games there, 77-75 as a 4-point underdog and 83-80 as a three-point underdog. Only one Oakland game this season has stayed Under (1st one vs. Detroit) and I had the Under in that one, which cashed despite the game going into overtime. Quietly, Oakland has covered seven of its last nine, though you should be aware that this very much remains a bad team. Wright State is one of the perennial favorites in the Horizon League and they come into the New Year riding a six-game win streak. They too swept Detroit Mercy on the road, winning those games by 23 and 13 points. Back home, the Raiders then swept Green Bay, winning both of those games by double digits as well. In fact, all six WSU wins this season have been of the double digit variety. Tonight certainly seems like quite the favorable matchup as they’ve won and covered seven straight against Oakland, six of those wins coming by 12 points or greater. Not sure if it’s the fact Oakland is off B2B wins or that they’ve been covering more often than not lately, but this line seems awfully low. My own power ratings project this to be yet another “safe” double digit victory for the Raiders. This is a team that’s been able to score at least 85 points in four of its last five contests. They are tops in the Horizon League in scoring. Oakland has not shot the ball well all year long and they don’t exactly play quality defense either. Prior to facing Detroit, the Grizzlies had not topped 73 (points) in any game. They are allowing an average of 85.5 PPG. 10* Wright State | |||||||
01-01-21 | Auburn +3.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 19-35 | Loss | -108 | 39 h 46 m | Show |
10* Auburn (1:00 ET): I believe the wrong team is favored in this year’s Citrus Bowl. Yes, I’m aware that Northwestern made it to the Big 10 Championship Game (where they led Ohio St at the half) while Auburn had a 4-loss regular season. But both were 6-win teams and you simply can’t discount the Big 10 vs. SEC factor here. Since 2015, Big 10 teams are just 4-11 ATS vs. the SEC in the bowls (and the struggles really go back longer than that). The last three times a Big 10 team has been favored against an SEC opponent, they have lost outright. The SEC is 7-1 SU L8 Citrus Bowls. I’m taking the points on New Year’s Day. N’western is 7-1 ATS this season, which is the 2nd best cover percentage in the nation (trailing only Indiana & San Jose St, both of whom didn’t have a single ATS loss). But this will mark just the third time in 15 bowl games that the Wildcats will be favored (they are 4-10 SU all-time in bowls). That one ATS loss this season came in an outright loss to Michigan State, who was not a good team. The majority of wins were both close and fortunate. The Wildcats were outgained on a per play in the regular season, so they were extremely fortunate to go 6-2 SU. They won three games in which they were outgained. In two of those three wins, they were outgained by 100+ yards! Auburn should be thrilled to get away from the SEC gauntlet as they are 6-1 ATS their L7 non-conference games. Of course, the biggest news here is that Gus Mahlzan was shockingly fired after the regular season and replaced with former Boise St HC Bryan Harsin. DC Kevin Steele will be the interim coach for the bowl game. Steele’s defense should have a strong game here against an anemic N’western offense that averages less than 300 YPG away from home. Three of Auburn’s four losses this year were to Alabama, Texas A&M and Georgia, all top 10 teams. I still consider the Tigers a top 25 team. They don’t turn the ball over (only 8 all season!) and that’s key vs. a N’western D that forced almost 2.0 TOs per game. 10* Auburn | |||||||
12-31-20 | Boise State -21 v. San Jose State | Top | 106-54 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
10* Boise State (8:30 ET): Those who have followed my picks through the years know it’s quite “unlike me” to play a road favorite of this size (in any sport). But there are always exceptions to be made and in this particular instance we will be going against one of the worst teams in all of College Basketball, San Jose State. Factoring out some of the smaller conferences you may not follow, it could be argued that SJSU is the worst team in a “major” conference. In terms of teams whose games are always lined, I’d say they ARE the worst. They are 0-4 SU/ATS so far vs. D-I teams with three of those losses coming by 33+ points. Boise State opened Mountain West play by sweeping a couple games from New Mexico. Neither game was close as the Broncos won by a combined 61 points! Overall, BSU has won six straight since suffering a 10-point loss in the opener to a very good Houston team. That includes an upset, on the road, of BYU where the Broncos were getting 3.5 from the oddsmakers. I expect tonight’s game to go very much along the lines of the pair vs UNM last week where Boise St shot almost 60% from the field! This really is a total mismatch. Boise State has won the previous seven meetings by an average of 22 PPG. The last five have all been decided by at least 18 points with four of them coming by 23 or more. The Broncos are #14 in the country in terms of points allowed per game, giving up only 58.0. San Jose State is allowing a frightening 88.4 PPG so far while averaging only 66.6 itself. Led by Derrick Alston Jr, the visitors can name the score tonight and they’ll head into 2021 off a very comfortable win (by the way, they get to play SJSU again on Saturday). 10* Boise State | |||||||
12-31-20 | Pelicans -5.5 v. Thunder | Top | 113-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
10* New Orleans (8:05 ET): Oklahoma City somewhat defied expectations last year, making the playoffs (as a 5-seed) and going a league-best 47-31-1 ATS. But I don’t see them doing that in 2020-21 as they project to be the worst team in the entire Western Conference. They opened with two close games, beating Charlotte (who is bad) by two and losing to Utah by one. Then came an 11-point home loss to Orlando two nights ago. Tonight marks the 2nd time in the last 3 games that the Thunder will host a team they swept last season. While they were fortunate enough to cover against Utah, I don’t see that happening here. New Orleans arrives in OKC on a 3-game ATS losing skid. They did defeat San Antonio by three during that time, but also suffered road losses to Miami and Phoenix and neither of those games were particularly close. But remember the Pelicans did open the season with a win “at Toronto” (game actually played in Tampa). I think the Pelicans, led by Zion Williamson, are going to be a top 7-8 team in the West this season and this is a game they really should win. When you consider that New Orleans has been favored only one time this year, their 2-2 start isn’t all that bad. Something I’m looking for tonight is the Pelicans to show improvement from behind the arc. They’ve made only 21 percent of their 3-point attempts in the L3 games, a big reason why they’ve failed to break 100 points every time. But thankfully OKC’s defensive numbers have worsened with each game and they let Utah and Orlando combine to shoot better than 50% from the floor. 10* New Orleans | |||||||
12-31-20 | Ball State +9 v. San Jose State | Top | 34-13 | Win | 100 | 208 h 5 m | Show |
10* Ball State (2:00 ET): So my biggest selection of the entire bowl season will be on Ball State. While their opponents (San Jose State) are undefeated (7-0 SU), the Cardinals happen to bring a 6-game win streak of their own into the Arizona Bowl. The last of those six wins was a big one as BSU upset Buffalo in the MAC Championship Game, as a two-touchdown underdog, 38-28. That they held Buffalo’s explosive offense to just 7 points in the 2H was every bit as impressive as scoring 35 pts of their own in the 1H. I had the Cardinals in that MAC Championship Game, so I know what they’re all about. You’ll want to be on them plus the points here. San Jose State also pulled an upset in the Mountain West Conference Championship Game, beating Boise State 34-20 as a 6.5-point dog. The Spartans are no worse than 6-0-1 ATS this season (7-0 for some) so they have clearly defied expectations in running the table thus far. You’ve got to give them credit, although the MWC was not particularly strong this season. Something else that jumps out is SJSU having been favored only three times previous to this. Those games were against New Mexico, UNLV and Hawaii, none of whom are in Ball State’s class. This is a lot of points to lay against a good team when you’re not accustomed to the favorite role. Ball State’s only loss came against Miami OH (season opener), a game which they led by DD in the 2H. While four of their six wins have been by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog as the Cardinals are here. I said the same thing going into the MAC Championship. The upset of Buffalo marked the 7th consecutive time Ball State has covered as an underdog. The program has NEVER won a bowl game (0-7 SU all-time) so they will be very hungry on New Year’s Eve. They beat Buffalo w/o RB Huntley, so they can certainly do it again here. San Jose State had just one offensive TD in the first three quarters vs. Boise after trailing at the half vs. Nevada. We saw what Ball State did in the 1H of the MAC Champ Game. My power ratings say this should only be a 2-point spread. 10* Ball State | |||||||
12-30-20 | Tennessee -3.5 v. Missouri | Top | 73-53 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (9:00 ET): I talk about my own personal power ratings a lot. Here they are quite instructive as they very much agree with the fact that Tennessee deserves to be ranked among the top seven teams in the country. However, they vehemently disagree with the pollsters assessment of Missouri (who is ranked #12) as I’ve got them comfortably OUTSIDE the top 25. Thus, it makes perfect sense to lay the short number with the Volunteers in this battle of unbeaten SEC teams Wednesday night. With conference play set to commence tonight, we’re going to learn a lot about the SEC in the coming weeks. Everyone knows about Kentucky’s struggles. But you’ve got three unbeaten teams (Arkansas, Georgia, Missouri) that are viewed as question marks. Personally, I think Arkansas is the 2nd best team in the conference, not Missouri. But there’s no disputing the fact that Tennessee looks every bit the part of the favorite to win the league in 2020-21. The Vols have smashed their first six opponents, winning by an average of 28.1 PPG. Tennessee has covered five of its six games, the lone exception being the last game when they were -33.5 vs. USC Upstate and won by 20. The competition has not exactly been “fierce” and critics will point to the fact Missouri has already beaten Illinois here in Columbia as a “sign” they can get it done tonight. But the Tigers’ wins have been a lot closer (than Tennessee’s) this season and they almost lost to Bradley (won 54-53) last week. A big key here is that UT doesn’t turn the ball over much while Mizzou forces very few turnovers. The Vols are also #2 in the country right now in scoring defense. 8* Tennessee | |||||||
12-30-20 | Lakers v. Spurs +6 | Top | 121-107 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (8:35 ET): Both the Lakers and Spurs are off losses here. In each instance, the loss came at home and was on the second night of a back to back. But because the Lakers have already successfully bounced back from one defeat this year, they are being priced as a comfortable favorite Weds night. (They’re also “the Lakers.”) But San Antonio has had one extra day off compared to the Lakers and I think they come out “ready to play” on their home floor. Take the points. The Lakers’ loss was to Portland Monday night, 115-107 as a six-point favorite. They led going into the 4Q but pretty much fell apart down the stretch. LeBron scored a team-high 29 points, but didn’t get much help outside of Anthony Davis and Dennis Schroder. Bench players tend to struggle more so on the road, so I’m not looking for a heavy increase in production there. I think it’s also imperative to note LA just won the NBA Finals two months ago and they are the team most affected by the unprecedented short turnaround between seasons. Even though they are off a 98-95 loss to New Orleans, the Spurs are 3-0 ATS so far. They covered as 4.5-point underdogs down in the Big Easy and had a chance to tie on the final shot of regulation. Previously they defeated Toronto and Memphis. I don’t think I can ever remember a San Antonio team with lower expectations than this one, at least during the Gregg Popovich era. That means we’re probably going to get some good value, at least early on in the season. They are 44-34 ATS as underdogs in the L3 seasons. 8* San Antonio | |||||||
12-30-20 | Arkansas -3 v. Auburn | Top | 97-85 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
10* Arkansas (7:00 ET): An unbeaten team playing its first “true” road game is normally something I would tend to fade, but not here as I feel 8-0 Arkansas is one of the more underrated teams in the country. The Razorbacks are not ranked, but my own personal power ratings say they are among the 20 best teams in the country right now. They’ve got double revenge on the mind tonight as they visit 6-2 Auburn, who won last season’s only meeting 79-76 in overtime (in Fayetteville). The Hogs aren’t ready to lose yet! Auburn has played well at home so far (4-0, +19.0 PPG) but they’ve hardly faced a “murderer’s row.” South Alabama, Texas Southern, Troy and Appalachian State were the victims and the Tigers came in as DD favorites for all four games. It’s quite the opposite here as they get ready for their toughest game since a blowout loss to Gonzaga last month. Auburn is a young team with three freshmen accounting for roughly half the team’s scoring this year. Turning the ball over has been an issue, though so far it’s been alleviated by an ability to clean up on the offensive glass. Arkansas is a much more veteran team than Auburn with four seniors doing the majority of their scoring. This is a better defensive team than Auburn as the Razorbacks are #32 in the country in defensive efficiency. Opponents have shot just 41.2% from INSIDE the arc and 27.5% from three-point range. Auburn shoots a high volume of threes, but does not make many (29.2%). Arkansas is also even better on the offensive glass than Auburn and doesn’t turn the ball over nearly as much (only 15.6% of total possessions). They are simply better and should be a bigger favorite here. 10* Arkansas | |||||||
12-29-20 | Colorado v. Texas -9 | Top | 23-55 | Win | 100 | 118 h 26 m | Show |
10* Texas (9:00 ET): Unless for some reason they are mentally checked out, I fully anticipate the Longhorns rolling in this year’s Alamo Bowl. UT has certainly gone through some “trials and tribulations” in 2020 (haven’t we all?!) with three losses and HC Tom Herman’s job security even being called into question. But the ‘Horns closed strong by winning four of five and ended up landing in the top 15 of my personal power ratings (higher than their #20 finish in CFP rankings). That this number came down a bit is great as Texas won all six of its games this year in which it was a 3.5 to 9.5-point favorite. Texas’ losses this year came either by three points or less (TCU, Iowa St) or after FOUR overtimes (Oklahoma). So they were really close to being undefeated despite three losses. The TCU loss was ridiculous as the offense was stopped on a goal line stand in the final minute after the defense gave up the go-ahead score in the final four minutes. The Iowa State game was another blown lead and they missed the potential tying FG as time expired. No one has really stayed close with Oklahoma since the Longhorns did. While there have been a few opt-outs for the bowl game, QB Ehlinger is still here and he had a 25-5 TD-INT ratio in the regular season. Colorado just doesn’t measure up here, in my opinion. The Buffaloes were a surprising 4-1 with that lone loss coming 17 days ago to Utah (38-31). They played no one the caliber of Texas. While CU can run the ball effectively w/ RB Broussard, the Longhorns’ defense ranks 30th in the country in stopping the run. The Buffs are also going to be w/o LB Nate Landman, who was the star of the defense. Of all the remaining bowl games, this is the one my power rating project to be the most lopsided (save for Notre Dame-Alabama, which has a MUCH higher spread). Lay the points. 10* Texas | |||||||
12-28-20 | Colorado +3 v. Arizona | Top | 74-88 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
10* Colorado (9:30 ET): We’ve got two 6-1 teams from the Pac 12 here, although recent form has been quite different for Colorado and Arizona. The Buffaloes, whose only loss came to Tennessee (a top 10 team), have won four in a row and all four wins have been by double digits. Arizona’s only loss came in the Pac 12 opener (78-75 at Stanford) and they’ve now failed to cover three straight following a closer than expected call last week vs. Montana (won by only 6 as 15-point chalk). This game was originally going to be played on December 2nd, but got postponed due to COVID. While neither of these teams come in ranked, my own personal power ratings say Colorado should be and that they are a top 15 team in the country! Even in Tucson, I feel the Buffaloes should be favored. Holding Tennessee (who averages over 80 PPG) to just 57 is a pretty significant achievement as far as I’m concerned. They are top 25 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency and are pretty good at forcing their opponents to turn the ball over. Arizona actually trailed Montana by seven at halftime last Tuesday. That’s not a good sign. While the Wildcats have always been a strong home team, they don’t have anything resembling a quality win this year and I barely consider them to be a top 50 team. They have lived at the FT line this season (9th most attempts in D-I), but Colorado doesn’t foul all that much and ranks 30th in keeping opponents OFF the FT line. Arizona has gotten 43% of its scoring this season from two freshmen and that seems unsustainable. Keep an eye on Colorado’s senior guard McKinley Wright IV. The home team has won 10 in a row in this Pac 12 rivalry (oddity!) but this is the Buffs’ chance to make a statement on the road. 10* Colorado | |||||||
12-28-20 | Bills v. Patriots +7 | Top | 38-9 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
10* New England (8:15 ET): There are two six-game streaks on the line coming into this game. Buffalo has covered six in a row. New England has gone Under in six in a row. I’ll be fading the former here as I just think that this is far too many points for the Bills to be laying. My own personal power ratings have this number much shorter. In fact, those ratings say this line should be under a field goal. So I’ll gladly take the points in this matchup as the Patriots are back in Foxboro for the 1st time in a month (they are 4-2 SU in home games this season). Assuming this line doesn’t close lower than -6.5, it will be the most points the Bills have laid to the Patriots since the glory days of Jim Kelly (1993). Quite frankly, being favored against New England is a position Buffalo is completely unaccustomed to being in. They were favored in the first meeting this season, but were just -4 at home. They won that game 24-21 when Cam Newton fumbled inside the red zone on the potential game tying/winning drive. That’s the last game the Bills failed to cover btw! It was the 1st time the Bills had been favored against the Pats since Week 1 of 2003! New England has not gotten at least seven points in an AFC East game since 2001 at Miami. It’s the first time they’ve been a home dog of 7 pts since that same 2001 season (vs. Peyton Manning and Indianapolis). That was Tom Brady’s rookie season. Getting a FG or more, New England is 22-11 ATS under Belichick and 10-3 ATS when getting at least seven. They are 14-3 ATS (12-5 SU) as a home dog under Belichick including 2-0 ATS this year. So it’s not all “ancient history.” Buffalo has been rolling, but a 7th straight cover when laying this many points on the division road seems unlikely. 10* New England | |||||||
12-28-20 | Jazz -8 v. Thunder | Top | 110-109 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
10* Utah (8:05 ET): The Jazz were embarrassed Saturday night on their home floor, losing outright (as 9.5-point chalk) to Minnesota. I remember the game well as I had the T’wolves plus the points. The Jazz trailed by as many as 17 before making a game of it late. Their inability to defend the three-point line in the 1st half is what did them in as they allowed Minnesota to shoot 55% from deep and make 11 3PA before halftime. It was a far cry from the Jazz’s first game when they went to Portland and won by 20. Now it’s back to divisional play as Utah heads to Oklahoma City. The Thunder have played only one game thus far and it was a 109-107 win at Charlotte as three-point underdogs. Their first game (vs. Houston) was called off due to COVID-19. As a reminder, the Hornets aren’t going to be very good this season. Nor will the Thunder, who have fully entered the rebuilding stage. In fact, I project them to finish with the worst record in the Western Conference this season. It’s a far cry from the Durant-Westbrook-Harden days. Now Utah has struggled w/ OKC the last couple years, going only 1-6 SU and ATS against them. But this is a much different Thunder team they’ll be facing, even compared to the one that beat them in the bubble (110-94) last August. The Thunder bring back just five players from last season and guard Ty Jerome is injured (day to day). Again, even though I faded them on Saturday, writing off Utah after one bad game would be a mistake. Winning by 20 in Portland was no small feat and I like how they are shooting more threes this season. They held Damian Lillard scoreless in the first half in the opener! 10* Utah | |||||||
12-28-20 | Drake v. Indiana State +4.5 | Top | 73-66 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
8* Indiana State (5:00 ET): The fact these teams are playing for the second time in as many days is something you’re going to see a lot more of this College Hoops season. Yesterday, Drake turned in a huge second half performance to win here in Terre Haute, 81-63 as a three-point favorite. The Bulldogs are now not only 10-0 SU, but a remarkable 8-0 ATS. Full disclosure - I had Indiana State yday, a rare misfire, but it’s certainly worth noting that it was a one-point game at halftime. In a unique “do-over” opportunity, I see Larry Bird’s alma mater ending Drake’s unbeaten run on Monday. Every one of Drake’s 10 victories this year has been by double digits. So give them credit. However, as I said in yday’s analysis, the schedule has been weak thus far with two non-DI opponents and just three “true” road games (yday being the 3rd). It was a tie game early in the 2H Sunday when the Bulldogs went on a 9-0 run to seize control. They scored 50 pts after halftime, which is somewhat ridiculous, and shot 54.1% for the game (including 9 of 18 from 3-pt range). Duplicating a performance like that, in the same place with no rest, seems unlikely. ISU was 3-0 SU at home this year before losing yday and 24-6 L30 home games overall. Their only two losses previous to Sunday came against Purdue and St. Louis, both of whom are very good. Not only are the Sycamores looking to exact some revenge for yesterday, but they are also 0-7 ATS L7 games vs. Drake. So some serious payback is in order tonight. ISU didn’t shoot well yday (38.8%) and truthfully has been pretty cold from the floor in the L4 games. But they are due to “heat up” at the same time Drake is due to cool off. Take the points. 8* Indiana State | |||||||
12-27-20 | Magic v. Wizards | Top | 120-113 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:05 ET): These teams just played last night (here in D.C.) and there was no shortage of points with the Magic prevailing by a score of 130-120. That makes it five straight wins for the Magic against the Wizards and they’ve covered the spread in each of the last four. Furthermore, Orlando has now opened its season with B2B “upsets” as they beat Miami 113-107 on Opening Night (that was at home). I can’t see these runs continuing though in what will eventually become a common spot this season (that being facing the same team B2B nights), but is still unusual as of right now. Washington is now 0-2, but they did cash for me - as 7.5 point underdogs - in the first game (against Philadelphia). That game saw them lead much of the way before fading late. They were actually up 10 - on the road - going into the 4Q. Last night saw another poor finish as they were outscored 39-28 over the final 12 minutes. The team is certainly getting “what it wanted” from Russell Westbrook as he’s now turned in a pair of triple doubles. Bradley Beal also scored a game-high 39 points last night. Bench scoring was huge for the Magic last night as they outscored the Wizards’ reserves 53-32. You don’t often see that kind of an advantage for the road team in a NBA game. Don’t count on it happening again. All that’s missing for the Wizards is that elusive win. They need to work on their defense (easier said than done), but given they had the lead going into the 4Q in both games so far, learning to finish is the most important thing. I think they do that Sunday night. 10* Washington | |||||||
12-27-20 | Colts v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
UPDATE: Liking this play even more now with the announcement BOTH Colts' starting tackles are out. 8* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Things have really “gone South” in a hurry for the Steelers, who were once 11-0 SU. They’ve now suffered three consecutive SU losses and have failed to cover all four games in December. Their only win this month came against a Ravens team that was severely depleted because of COVID (game was played on a Wednesday night). Starting with that less than stellar effort, the Black & Gold have averaged just 17 PPG the L4 weeks. A new nadir came Monday night when they lost outright - as a two touchdown underdog - to 2-win Cincinnati. Apologies (from players and coaches) have been issued ever since. I know Indianapolis commands a lot of respect in the marketplace. Did you know that the Colts have been underdogs in only one game all season? That was when they closed +1 at Cleveland in Week 5! But this sure feels like a “buy low” spot on the Steelers. The lookahead line for this game was Pittsburgh -3, but after the loss on MNF, it almost instantly “jumped the fence” to where now the Steelers are underdogs for the 1st time all season at home. This line move reminds me a little bit of when the Colts ended up favored against Baltimore and lost 24-10. But that game was played in Indianapolis. The Steelers’ offense has been held under 20 points in four straight games, something that hasn’t happened since Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie season. With fingers being pointed, I expect Big Ben and the offense to “get it going” here against a Colts’ pass defense that has given up three straight 300+ yard passing days. Indy was outgained at home by Houston last week, 425-350. Pittsburgh allowed just 230 total yards vs. Cincinnati, but was an unlucky -3 in turnover differential. Getting points, at home, with a team that started the year 11-0 is a value I simply cannot pass up. 8* Pittsburgh | |||||||
12-27-20 | Browns v. Jets +10 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets finally won a game last week as they stunned the Rams 23-20 as a two-touchdown underdog on the road. While it saved them from the potential embarrassment of going 0-16, the win ultimately may prove costly as the Jets are no longer in position to pick 1st in next spring’s Draft (Jacksonville is). Of course, HC Adam Gase probably doesn’t want to get fired (I would have never hired him), so the win may have bought him some time. I think the conventional wisdom here will be that the Jets “can’t possibly win two in a row.” While that may be true, I do see a ton of value with line. The Browns went 0-16 a few years ago, but that’s now a distant memory with Baker Mayfield leading a renaissance in Cleveland. The Browns are now 10-4 SU and barring a complete collapse will be in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. But this is a somewhat unprecedented spread for Cleveland. The last time they were favored by at least 9 points on the road was 1976 when they laid two touchdowns to the expansion Buccaneers. That was a long time ago! Mayfield is just 2-6 ATS in his career as a road favorite and the Browns are 3-10 ATS overall their L13 road games. You may recall that I successfully faded them a few weeks ago in Jacksonville when they were -6.5. They ended up winning that game by only two points. Since Week 5, the Browns have just one win by more than five points. It came last week in this stadium, against the Giants, 20-6. However, you should note the Giants failed to score on TWO drives that ended inside the 10-yard line. With half the Browns games this season being decided by one score, you really can’t justify laying this many points with them on the road. I know it’s the Jets and motivation could be an issue now that they’ve actually won, but my power ratings say this number should be under a touchdown. The Browns are only 3-6 ATS their L9 games and have failed to cover four of the six games where they’ve been favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take the points. 8* NY Jets | |||||||
12-27-20 | Drake v. Indiana State +3.5 | Top | 81-63 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
10* Indiana State (1:00 ET): Drake is not only 9-0 straight up, they are also 7-0 against the spread to start the season (two games vs. non-board teams). But the Bulldogs haven’t really beaten anyone of note since the season opener at Kansas State. Sunday afternoon finds them traveling to Terre Haute for the MVC opener. While this is a rivalry Drake has largely dominated at the betting window (8-1 ATS L9, 6-0 L6), ISU did win the most recent meeting, 58-56 back in January, on this floor. Close games have also been common with four of the past six head to head matchups being decided by six points or fewer. Indiana State has played just five games so far and is 3-2 SU. Both losses are quite excusable as they were on the road against Purdue and St. Louis. The Sycamores are 3-0 SU at home after their most recent game, a 72-66 win over SE Missouri State on Tuesday. While the final margin ended up being just six points, ISU started the game with a 9-0 run and never trailed. They were up double digits for most of the second half. Every one of Drake’s wins this season has been by double digits, so give them credit. But this will be just the third “true” road game of the season and only the second in the L30 days. Again, the schedule has been weak with two non-DI opponents, not to mention the likes of South Dakota, Chicago State and North Dakota. A side note: these teams are also playing tomorrow. I absolutely think Drake’s unbeaten run ends here in Terre Haute and Larry Bird’s alma mater is worth taking the points Sunday afternoon. They are 24-6 SU L30 home games. 10* Indiana State | |||||||
12-26-20 | Wolves +8 v. Jazz | Top | 116-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (9:05 ET): Not sure how good the T’wolves are going to be this season, but they did start the season with a win (admittedly, it was vs. Detroit) and are getting a decent amount of points tonight in Salt Lake City. The Jazz probably couldn’t have asked for a better start to their season as they blew out Portland on the road, winning by 20 points (120-100). It won’t be that easy every night, however. Look for this to be a close game Saturday night between two Northwest Division rivals. Take the points. Minnesota was NOT invited to the bubble, so the win against Detroit Wednesday night was the 1st time we got a chance to see them play since March. While Karl-Anthony Towns led the way with 22 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists, it was Malik Beasley that scored a team-high 23. That the T’wolves won by 10 is a little misleading in the sense they trailed by as many as 12 in the third quarter. They actually didn’t take their first lead until there were less than four minutes remaining in the game. Despite that, the underdog role should suit them well tonight against a Jazz team that won’t be able to replicate its Wednesday effort. They put up 50 three-point attempts, a potential sign of things to come. Five different players drained at least three 3-pointers and the team made 19 of those 50 attempts. Defensively, they held Damian Lillard scoreless (!) in the first half. Again though, this feels like a bit of a letdown spot. I look for the T’wolves to shoot better tonight than they did vs. Detroit (43.2%) and with games against the Lakers & Clippers looming in the next three days, they should play hard in this one. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
12-26-20 | 49ers +5 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-12 | Win | 100 | 50 h 52 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (4:30 ET): After “striking gold” as NFC Champs a season ago, the 49ers’ fortunes quickly soured in 2020. Injuries piled up early on, leaving them depleted on both sides of the ball. The end result is a 5-9 SU record and they are down to third string QB CJ Beathard as they get ready to face the Cardinals this week (Saturday). Arizona is a place the Niners should be quite familiar with at this point; it’s where they’ve been playing their “home games” due to local COVID-19 restrictions. While they’ve yet to win here (0-2), playing in the same stadium for the third time in four weeks is a bit of a “hidden advantage.” So I’m actually taking the points here. Both the 49ers and Cardinals scored 33 points last week and put up a ton of yards. The 49ers gained 458 against the Cowboys while the Cards finished with 526 against the Eagles. Interestingly, both also lost the turnover battle pretty badly (49ers -4, Cardinals -3). But while San Fran lost by 8, Arizona still managed to win by 7. That’s pretty much the way it’s gone for these two teams in 2020 as the Cardinals are now ascending in the NFC West. They need this game to move closer to their first playoff berth in five years. Meanwhile, there’s a very good chance the 49ers could be the only team in the division NOT to make the playoffs this year. While it’s “must win”, I feel Arizona is a little overvalued here. While they’ve had success against the 49ers in the past, including a 24-20 win back in Week 1, they’ve also been the underdog in each of the L5 meetings. When favored this year, the Cardinals are just 3-7 ATS with five outright losses.The 49ers really should have beaten Dallas last week (were +167 in total yards) but two early TO’s dug them into a 14-0 hole and they also allowed a kick return for TD. In relief, Beathard actually played pretty well, leading two scoring drives. Having outgained opponents on a per game and per play basis this season, the Niners are better than their record. They were actually favored each of the L3 wks, not to mention were -7 vs. Arizona in Wk 1. Good value here. 10* San Francisco. | |||||||
12-25-20 | Mavs +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 115-138 | Loss | -114 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:05 ET): It was a poor shooting night for Dallas in the opener as they made only 42.4% of their field goal attempts and were a woeful 9 of 37 from three-point range. Yet they only lost by four on the road to the Suns. I’m pretty high on the Mavs this year, feeling that they should finish third in the West (behind the two LA teams). They really underperformed last year considering they did finish 3rd (in the West) in point differential and led the entire league in offensive efficiency. Bottom line: I expect them to win more games this season. The Lakers are at a severe disadvantage at the start of the season, seeing as they’ve had just 71 days off since winning the NBA Finals in October. It showed in the opener as they were blitzed out of the gate by the Clippers, falling behind 39-19 at the end of the 1st quarter. While they quickly rallied to turn it into a competitive contest, the Lakers never led and ended up losing 116-109 as a two-point favorite. Personally, I cashed the Over. Dallas has to be getting sick of these close losses. They were a league-worst 2-11 SU in games decided by three points or less, prior to the season being suspended last year. They then suffered three more losses by 4 pts or less in the bubble. I expect some of those close losses to “become” wins this year. Throw in the fact they are likely to shoot the ball much better than they did in the opener and I see a live dog Christmas night. The Mavs should also start to improve defensively with Josh Richardson on board. They had the 4th most road wins (23) in the league last season. LeBron rolled his ankle in the opener. Take the points. 8* Dallas | |||||||
12-25-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 33-52 | Loss | -136 | 45 h 27 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (4:30 ET): Though last week’s 33-27 upset loss to the Bears (at home) effectively ended any chance they have to make the playoffs, I think there’s actually quite a bit to like about this Minnesota team moving forward (expect a bounce back in 2021). Yes, I know they are 0-5 ATS their L5 games. But four of those games have been decided by 6 pts or less. The only one that wasn’t, a 26-14 loss to Tampa Bay two weeks ago, saw them take an early lead. With New Orleans suddenly struggling (also off B2B losses), this feels like it will be closer than experts think. Half of the Saints’ victories this season have come by 6 pts or less. The Saints defense, which had a historically great 5-game stretch, has suddenly “sprung a leak.” Yes, they had to face Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City last week. But what about the week before when they got to go against a rookie QB making his 1st career start? Jalen Hurts and the Eagles not only scored 24 points in a shocking upset, but they also ran for 246 yards. In case you needed to be reminded, the Vikings have Dalvin Cook, the league’s leading rusher. The Saints’ D also allowed 179 yards rushing vs. the Chiefs. Overall, this Vikings offense averages a really solid 6.3 yards per play. They’ve scored 27+ pts five of the last seven weeks. They should put plenty of points on the board again here. Historically, Minnesota does well in this spot. The spot being “off B2B losses.” They are 3-0 ATS in that role this season and 6-0 ATS the L3 seasons! They’ve won five of those six games outright. Let us not forget that Minnesota came here to the Superdome in January and won outright, 26-20 with an almost identical pointspread. Drew Brees didn’t look like himself last week (returned too early?) and New Orleans is a lousy 1-5 ATS the last six times they’ve been a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 pts. Take the points. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
12-25-20 | Marshall +5 v. Buffalo | Top | 10-17 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 27 m | Show |
10* Marshall (2:30 ET): To quote the Hives “Hate to Say I Told You So,” (Buffalo fans). Last Friday I faded the heavily favored Bulls in the MAC Championship Game (-14 vs. Ball State), noting just how soft a schedule it had been for a team that came in at 5-0 SU. When 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I think an unbeaten record should be taken with a “grain of salt.” Sure enough, as I predicted Buffalo was not infallible. They lost outright to Ball State, 38-28, a result even better than I could have imagined. Motivation may now be an issue for the Bulls playing just one week later. I said the same thing about Marshall when I successfully faded them last Friday. The Thundering Herd just had their own unbeaten run (7-0) ended two weeks earlier with a shocking loss to Rice. I said that would greatly affect their motivation in the C-USA Champ Game (vs. UAB) where they were favored. They suffered the same fate as Buffalo did, losing outright. In their case, it had to do with an offense that could not get on track for a second straight game. After five turnovers led to a shutout loss to Rice (stunning!), the Herd could only manage 268 total yards against UAB. So after successful fades of both teams exactly one week ago, who do I go with in the Camellia Bowl? Well, this game likely comes down to Marshall’s excellent rush defense stopping Buffalo RB Jaret Patterson. Fortunately for them, Patterson suffered a knee injury LW vs. Ball State. The Bulls offense really slowed down after that injury. While “likely” to play here, he won’t be 100% effective, especially against a defense giving up only 2.7 yards per carry. A Buffalo defense that’s given up 30+ in half of its games should be the “elixir” for the Marshall offense. The Thundering Herd have had FAR more success in bowl games than Buffalo, so take the points here. 10* Marshall | |||||||
12-23-20 | Wizards +7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 107-113 | Win | 103 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10* Washington (7:35 ET): The Wizards probably shouldn’t have even been invited to the “bubble” back in July, but I suppose the NBA wanted to create the illusion of some sort of drama in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Things didn’t go well for the Wiz down in Orlando as they went a pretty miserable 1-7 SU (2-6 ATS), the lone SU win coming in a completely meaningless final game vs. Boston. On the flip side, the opportunity to play those games in the bubble did allow for Washington’s younger players to gain valuable time to develop. The Wizards team that will take the floor tonight won’t resemble what we saw a few months ago. Not only is Bradley Beal back (career-high 30.5 PPG LY) after he sat out the bubble, the team went out and traded for Russell Westbrook. That’s an obvious upgrade from John Wall, who they sent to Houston in the trade for Westbrook. Washington now has one of the best backcourts in the entire league, even if there’s some logistical hurdles to clear. The Wizards were not a good defensive team for much of last year, but did improve to 11th in efficiency from the time they traded away Isaiah Thomas until lockdown. Philadelphia was a dominant 29-2 SU on its home floor last season, but without the benefit of any home court advantage really limped to the finish after the restart. They were swept in the 1st round of the playoffs (by Boston), resulting in a coaching change (Doc Rivers now calling the shots). While this team definitely has plenty of talent, I feel they are coming into the season overvalued. Some of that is the home record from last season. Winning by what the oddsmakers are calling for here on Opening Night seems like a challenge too tall with their offensive flaws. Take the points. 10* Washington | |||||||
12-23-20 | Rutgers v. Ohio State -2 | Top | 68-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (4:30 ET): We’ve got a Top 25 matchup Wednesday afternoon in Columbus with #23 Ohio State hosting #11 Rutgers. My view is that these teams are much closer than those rankings indicate with the Buckeyes probably being better. So I see Rutgers’ (6-0) unbeaten run coming to an end here. The Scarlet Knights have managed to win two straight as underdogs, but the third time WON’T be the charm here as three consecutive SU dog wins is a difficult thing to pull off. Lay the very short number. Ohio State won 77-70 against UCLA its last time out. It was technically a “neutral court game,” though being in Cleveland, it was obviously an edge to the Buckeyes. Still they came in as 2-pt underdogs, so it was a nice win. It was also much-needed after a loss at Purdue last week and a less than stellar showing here at home vs. a terrible Cleveland State side 10 days ago (OSU won by only six). That being said, the Buckeyes are a top 10 team in offensive efficiency right now and 20-8 ATS their L28 home games. They’ve outscored visiting teams by 19 PPG this season in Columbus. Everyone’s going to lose at least one game this season and this just seems like a very logical spot for Rutgers to fall for the first time in 2020. The win over Illinois on Sunday was impressive, but also came at home. The Scarlet Knights had to overcome a DD deficit in the 1st half and 54% Illini shooting to get the 91-88 victory. I don’t think they can count on scoring that much on the road. Being able to attempt 36 free throws was also huge against Illinois and that’s something that almost certainly will NOT repeat itself Weds afternoon. Ohio State doesn’t turn the ball over much and will pick up its first Big 10 win of the season here. 10* Ohio State | |||||||
12-23-20 | Georgia Southern -6 v. Louisiana Tech | Top | 38-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
8* Georgia Southern (3:00 ET): Louisiana Tech actually brings a 6-year bowl win streak into this year’s New Orleans Bowl, all those wins coming under current HC Skip Holtz. However, there is little disputing that this is one of the weaker iterations during Holtz’s tenure. As far as this year’s crop of bowl teams go, the Bulldogs are among the very worst. Of their five wins this season, three were against terrible teams and another was a FCS school. The fifth was a 2OT game where they trailed by 14 going into the 4Q. Earlier in the year, they erased a 17-point 2H deficit and won. The bottom line is that this team, which was outscored this season, ought to feel very fortunate to have a 5-4 SU record. Georgia Southern was probably the best team in the Sun Belt this season after you get beyond the “big three” of Coastal Carolina, Louisiana and Appalachian State. To be clear, this year was the strongest the Sun Belt has been, perhaps ever. The Eagles played all three of those teams tough and its other two losses were by a combined 7 points, both on the road (including 28-27 at Army). It’s really just the opposite of La Tech, who probably should have had a worse regular season record. Ga Southern is definitely “better than 7-5 SU” in my eyes. This is Georgia Southern’s third straight bowl appearance, so they’re no stranger to the postseason under HC Chad Lunsford. Look for the Eagles’ offense to have plenty of success running the ball in this game as La Tech’s defense has given 330+ yards rushing in two of its last three games. Ga Southern comes in averaging 262 rush yards per game on the season. Louisiana Tech’s offense is just horrible as it averages only 2.8 YPC and 325 total YPG. The Eagles have the edge defensively in this one as well as they allow only 22.3 PPG. La Tech allows 34.3. This one should quickly turn into a blowout. 8* Georgia Southern | |||||||
12-22-20 | Tulane -2.5 v. Nevada | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -114 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
10* Tulane (3:30 ET): Of the 28 bowl games scheduled for 2020-21, this is the one where the line jumped out to me the most. I feel this number is WAY off as a Tulane team that my power ratings respect quite a bit should comfortably win this game by double digits. Both teams are in a bowl for the third consecutive year with Green Wave having won its prior two while Nevada lost LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, 30-21 to Ohio U. My power ratings haven’t liked the Wolf Pack all season and the way they finished the regular season really seemed to confirm that skepticism. Lay the points! Nevada started 5-0 (SU), but three of those five wins came by seven points or less. Also, they got to face three of the worst teams in the country - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - all in a row. It was when the Wolf Pack traveled to face Hawai (11/28) that I finally jumped in to fade. Sure enough, that ended up being an outright loss for Nevada (24-21 as 7.5-pt chalk) and a win for me. The following week, the Wolf Pack were very fortunate to beat Fresno State 37-26 as they gave up 600 total yards in the contest. They gave up 500 more to San Jose State the next week while the offense was shut out in the 2H. So it’s been almost a month since they played a “good game.” You may recall that I played against Nevada in LY’s Famous Idaho Potato Bowl and it was one of my stronger selections of the entire bowl season. The Wolf Pack have now lost 12 consecutive games at Albertsons Stadium (0-9 vs. Boise St, 0-3 in bowls), so do not be worried about any “geographical disadvantage” here for Tulane. The Green Wave, who are looking for a third straight 7-win season under Willie Fritz, are 6-1 SU/5-2 ATS as favorites this season and 17-4/14-7 in that role L3 seasons. They easily could have had a better regular season record, but lost three games in which they held a DD lead plus lost in OT to SMU. A 35-21 win over Memphis was a strong way to close the regular season. There’s tremendous depth at running back here and the defense led the AAC in sacks. 10* Tulane | |||||||
12-20-20 | St. Louis v. Minnesota +2.5 | Top | 82-90 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:30 ET): There are only 11 teams in the country that have won at least six games without a loss. St. Louis is one of them and perhaps even more impressive is the fact the Billikens have covered the spread in all six games as well. They’ve got two wins against “Power 5” teams (LSU, NC State), but are about to hit the road for the first time tonight against Minnesota. I like the fact St. Louis is favored in this one as it’s a great time to fade a team I didn’t really expect to still be undefeated. Take the points. Minnesota also began its season 6-0 SU. But the Golden Gophers just tasted defeat for the 1st time on Tuesday, getting blown out 95-62 by #13 Illinois. I think we all know that the Illini are one of the top teams in the country, so I’m not at all discouraged by that loss from the Gophers. It was on the road (their first road game) and they shot very poorly (27.5 FG%). Back at home, I expect Minnesota to be back in the 80s-90s (in terms of points scored), like we saw in the majority of their first six games this season. I think it’s a little telling that St. Louis isn’t even ranked despite its perfect record. Considering they just played two games in three days, with NC State a last minute addition to the schedule, this seems like the point where the inevitability of losing a game catches up with them. They trailed NC State at the half. This will now be their third game in six days. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants +6.5 | Top | 20-6 | Loss | -105 | 58 h 36 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:20 ET): Despite losing Monday night, the Browns remain tremendously overvalued in the marketplace. Yes, there is some uncertainty with the Giants’ QB situation as they may have to turn to Colt McCoy (a former Brown!) for this Sunday night game. But remember it was McCoy who helped engineer the shocking upset in Seattle two weeks ago. Calling the plays for the G-Men will be former Browns’ HC Freddie Kitchens. So there’s going to be PLENTY of motivation on that home sideline this week, in addition to the fact the Giants are trying to win the NFC East (currently tied for 1st w/ Washington at 5-7 SU). Cleveland is 9-4 SU, but six of its wins have been by seven points or less and the schedule has been relatively easy. Ironically, in defeat, they probably played one of their better games on MNF. I think the consensus coming off that wild 47-42 loss to the Ravens is that the Browns are “for real.” But beware of the fact they still have a negative point differential on the season and the defense has given up a total of 82 points the L2 weeks. As a favorite this season, the Browns are 7-1 SU, but just 3-5 ATS. As favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points, they are 5-0 SU, but 1-4 ATS. I just don’t this team should be this large of a road favorite. In fact, my own power ratings call this game a pick ‘em! The Giants are 8-3 ATS (though only 3-8 SU) as underdogs this season. They were on a 4-game win streak before getting blown out by Arizona (26-7) last week. That singular result seems to have greatly affected this spread and I’m not sure why. The Browns have not won a game by more than six points since October 11th. During that 4-game win streak, the G-Men were giving up an average of just 16.5 PPG. The 26 pts they allowed last week were the most in any game since Week 5. They’ve allowed more than 26 only twice all season. Take the points. 10* NY Giants | |||||||
12-20-20 | Chiefs v. Saints +3 | Top | 32-29 | Push | 0 | 54 h 41 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (4:25 ET): The Chiefs are living dangerously. They’ve won five consecutive one score games, but have not covered the spread in any of them. This reminds me of last year’s Super Bowl run where they fell behind by double digits in every playoff game, only to come out ahead every time. Of course, the difference is that they covered the spread in all those games. Normally, I might see a 5-game ATS losing streak as a time to “buy low,” but being a road favorite against the Saints seems to be the antithesis of “buying low.” Rather it’s the other side I want to invest in as this seems to be a steal. For the record, New Orleans was going to be an underdog in this game even before they were upset last week in Philadelphia. That shocking defeat to an Eagles team starting a rookie QB (1st career start) hasn’t seemed to affect this line much. Surprisingly, as of press time at least, nor has the impending return of Drew Brees. I just think this is an incredible value on a Saints team - with or without Brees in the lineup. They’d won nine in a row prior to last week and were widely considered to be the best team in the NFC. The Saints are 8-1 SU and ATS as underdogs since 2018 including a 38-3 win at Tampa Bay last month. That was the only time New Orleans has been a dog in 2020. Even with Taysom Hill as the starter, I would have loved this line. But now it’s the HOF Brees under center. We’re also getting arguably the league’s best defense. If there’s one defense I’d trust to slow down Patrick Mahomes, it would be this one as the Saints are allowing just 20.4 PPG this year. Going into last week’s game vs. Philly (where I cashed the Over), the Saints had allowed just two offensive touchdowns in their past five games. It’s almost unheard of to be getting a Brees-led Saints team as a home underdog. Take the points. 8* New Orleans | |||||||
12-20-20 | Bucs v. Falcons +6 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Atlanta has been a home dog only two other times this season. I took them the first time around and that ended up being a 43-6 thrashing of Las Vegas, their best performance of the 2020 season. The Dirty Birds weren’t as fortunate the following week (+3 in a 21-16 loss), but that was against the Saints. Tampa Bay is closer to New Orleans than they are to Las Vegas in terms of talent, but still I don’t see how Tom Brady and the Bucs deserve to be favored by more in Atlanta than New Orleans was. The current line is much higher than the look ahead line was and I’m seeing value on the Falcons here. The Bucs got a late season bye and really needed it as they were off B2B losses heading into LW’s game vs. Minnesota. The week off seemed to do them some good as they beat the Vikings 26-14 as six-point favorites. However, they were actually outgained in the contest (335-303) and had 10 fewer first downs than Minnesota. A potential major problem for TB this week is that all three specialists (kicker, punter, long-snapper) are on the COVID-19 list. Special teams miscues often end up costing a team wins (just ask the Chargers!) and don’t be surprised if the Bucs make one on Sunday. Also, the Bucs’ starting left tackle (Donovan Smith) won’t play here and RB Ronald Jones is questionable. A few things to keep in mind with the Falcons here. One is that despite a 4-9 SU record, they have actually outscored their opponents this season! Matt Ryan is 15-7 ATS all-time as a home dog. Interim HC Raheem Morris probably wants to keep this job on a permanent basis, so I don’t see this team quitting. They could have beaten the Chargers last week if not for TWO late Ryan interceptions. Atlanta is 4-4 SU under Morris. Take the points. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
12-20-20 | Patriots v. Dolphins -1 | Top | 12-22 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
9* Miami (1:00 ET): Is there something I’m missing here? Because I feel the Dolphins are being severely undervalued in this spot, a key AFC East clash. Not that I mind. I’ve cashed Miami multiple times in 2020, the most notable win was obviously my 10* Game of the Year when they upset the Rams 28-17 here at home. Since their bye week last season, Brian Flores’ team has gone a league-best 19-6 ATS. The ‘Fins are 10-3 ATS this season, have covered eight of their last nine and were a winner for me last week +7.5 against the best team in the league, Kansas City. I feel they should be about a touchdown favorite here. This clearly isn’t the same New England team we’ve grown accustomed to seeing under Bill Belichick. The Patriots are just 6-7 SU and while technically not out of the playoff race, their reign of dominance over the AFC East (won division 17 of the last 19 years, including 11 straight) figures to end, possibly as early as Sunday. Even if the Pats were to win their final three games, it’s highly doubtful they’ll make the playoffs. It’s been awhile, so let me remind you that the last time we saw this team, they were thoroughly dominated in a 24-3 loss to the Rams. So much has changed since these teams met in Week 1. New England won that first game 21-11, but Tua Tagovailoa is now the Miami QB and he’s led his team to a 4-2 WL record. The Dolphins are 4-1 SU/ATS as favorites this season and now they get to play host. The Patriots are just 2-5 SU/ATS on the road and one of those SU wins was by three against the Jets. I know all about Belchick’s record vs. rookie QBs (11-0 since 2012), but this isn’t the same NE team. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records and the Patriots are 0-3 ATS when playing with more than six days off between games. So much for rest. Miami is better and deserves to be favored. 9* Miami | |||||||
12-20-20 | Seahawks v. Washington Football Team +6 | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 50 h 17 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): So Washington is forced to start Dwayne Haskins this week as Alex Smith is injured. That’s a bit of a bummer for a team that has really come into its own of late with four consecutive wins and covers. I believe this is the team that will win the moribund NFC East. Were Smith starting here, I would make Washington the favorite here. They beat Pittsburgh (who was unbeaten at the time) on the road two weeks ago and it’s not like Seattle is immune from a shocking loss. Two weeks ago, they fell at home to the Giants, 17-12 as 12.5-point chalk. The Seahawks rebounded from that upset loss by smashing the Jets 40-3 last week. But that doesn’t really affect our view of Russell Wilson and company. Everybody beats the Jets. As good as Wilson and the Seahawks’ defense has looked this season, they’re up against a defense that’s allowed a total of just 57 points the last four games. That’s just over 14.0 per game as rookie Chase Young has looked phenomenal of late for the Football team. Seattle’s RT Brandon Snell has been in and out of the lineup recently, so protecting Wilson could be an issue here. Washington’s offense actually gained less than 200 total yards last week, but they still won 23-15 against San Francisco. While not a “true” road win (was played in Arizona), they’ll take it. Seattle is just 3-3 SU on the road this season and almost all of their games (save for LW) end up being close. Going back to the start of last season, 17 of the Seahawks’ 21 victories have been by one possession! They’ve been outgained this year. The Football Team’s defense will carry Haskins and keep this one closer than expected. The Seahawks have failed to cover four straight road games and are 0-3 ATS L3 as a road favorite. 8* Washington | |||||||
12-19-20 | Alabama v. Florida +17.5 | Top | 52-46 | Win | 100 | 75 h 54 m | Show |
8* Florida (8:00 ET): Fading Florida proved quite fruitful for me last week as the Gators went out and lost outright (as 23.5-point favorites) to LSU. Blame the ill-timed throwing of the shoe all you want, but it was not a great all-around effort by Dan Mullen’s team and the loss definitely took some of the “shine” off the SEC Championship Game vs. Alabama. But that’s precisely how I like it! Now, no one is giving Florida a chance, despite the fact they are the #7 ranked team in the country and their two losses this year have been by a combined six points. While I don’t anticipate another outright win here, I am definitely taking the points. Now we ought to give Alabama their due. The top-ranked Crimson Tide mowed their way through the regular season, winning all 10 games by an average of almost 33 PPG. Lost in the middle of the pandemic is the fact this team is probably one of Nick Saban’s most dominant EVER at Tuscaloosa. But this is a LOT of points to be laying when you’re facing a good team and everybody expects you to win. Florida has been an underdog only one other time this season and it was when they annihilated Georgia (on a neutral field) 44-28. The Gators have put up at least 31 points in every game this season. Furthermore, Florida is 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS off an SEC loss under Mullen. I mentioned a similar trend for LSU under Ed Orgeron last week. Look, there’s probably nothing I can say to convince you that the Gators have a chance of winning this game. But they certainly can keep it close. Other than Texas A&M, who they faced early in the season and at home, Bama played a fairly weak SEC schedule. After so many covers in a row (7-0 ATS L7), isn’t at least one close game in store? Both of Bama’s non-covers came away from home this year. They haven’t faced Florida since the 2016 SEC Title Game and Heisman frontrunner Kyle Trask is good enough to keep this one within striking distance. 8* Florida | |||||||
12-19-20 | Bills v. Broncos +6 | Top | 48-19 | Loss | -104 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
10* Denver (4:30 ET): I have to concede that the Broncos are NOT one of my favorite teams this season. They are the only team in the league that hasn’t been favored in a single game all year and they’ve got the 5th worst point differential. Only the Bengals, Cowboys, Jaguars and Jets - who are a collective 7-44-1 SU - have been outscored by a larger margin this season. That being said, this would seem like a prime opportunity to “sell high” on the Bills as they are coming off a win over the Steelers and 5-0 ATS their L5 games. Despite that ATS win streak, my power rankings indicate this line should be +3.5. I was NOT as high on Buffalo as most were coming into this season. I’ll admit that I was wrong in that regard as this very much looks like a legit contender in the AFC right now. But in terms of point differential, the Bills remain outside the top ten (in the league) and have benefited by going 5-1 SU in one-score games. They still don’t really have the statistical profile you’d expect from a 10-3 team. What they have done is handle their business at home (5-0 SU when favored). But on the road, they are just 1-3 ATS when favored. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS against the Bills since 2007, but this is the first time they’ll face them with Drew Lock as the starting QB. Lock is 10-5 ATS in his NFL career, leading Denver to cash in each of his L3 starts. After leading a near upset of Kansas City two weeks ago, Lock had his best game as a pro vs. Carolina last week as he had a 4-0 TD-INT ratio in the 32-27 victory. This team is simply much better with Lock under center. I know the Denver defense has some serious issues at CB right now, but they remain #1 in the league in red zone efficiency and should stymie Buffalo enough to keep this one within the number. 10* Denver | |||||||
12-19-20 | Missouri v. Mississippi State +2 | Top | 32-51 | Win | 100 | 70 h 15 m | Show |
10* Mississippi State (3:30 ET): It was back on October 10th that I wrote the following: “The fact that Mississippi State was able to upset LSU (down in Baton Rouge) in the season opener is going to carry a lot of weight in the marketplace moving forward.” It was time to fade the Bulldogs that day and sure enough they lost 24-2 to Kentucky. It’s been all downhill since in Starkville with the only victory coming against perennial SEC pasty Vanderbilt (who has fired its HC). Mike Leach’s first season is guaranteed to be a losing one (2-7 SU/3-6 ATS entering Saturday), but I would caution about writing them off Saturday at home vs. Missouri. Missouri was actually ranked in the Top 25 of the CFP Rankings last week, which I found to be quite curious. The Tigers barely crack my own Top 50 and sure enough they went out and got whipped 49-14 by Georgia last week. Now that’s a good team Mizzou was up against, but that’s precisely the point. The Tigers’ “best” win this season was probably LSU, same as Mississippi State. They have more wins than the Bulldogs, but (like Miss St) the only dominant one was against Vandy. Three have been by seven points or less. Mississippi State has had all sorts of problems on offense this year, but facing a Mizzou defense that has given up 35 or more points six times this season might be “what the doctor ordered.” The last two weeks have seen the Tigers give up a total of 97 points! Up front, the Mizzou defense has been decimated by injuries.While they did win the only other time they were road favorites, that was against a South Carolina team (17-10) playing for a lame duck head coach. This is the first time in four games that the Tigers are playing away from home. They’ve yet to score more than 17 in any of their three previous road games. 10* Mississippi State | |||||||
12-19-20 | Washington State +10.5 v. Utah | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -107 | 68 h 14 m | Show |
8* Washington State (1:30 ET): In any other College Football season, a matchup like this would likely go a long way in determining bowl assignments. But as you know, 2020 has been no normal year. There seems to be no shortage of “breaking news” these days in this sport, and on Friday, Utah announced that they would not be accepting any bowl bids. Washington State has already indicated the same thing. Thus, this will likely be the last time we see either of these teams this year. Utah laying double digits in a game where they may not be all that motivated seems highly questionable. I’ll take the points. Utah started out 0-2, but actually played pretty well in losing efforts vs. USC and Washington. They blew a 21-point lead against the latter. Turning the ball over a total of nine times in those two games also played a large role in losing. So I’m not surprised to see that the Utes have turned things around some with B2B wins, against Oregon State and Colorado. But they did get to face OSU w/o its star RB and starting QB. That seems like a pretty big advantage, yet the Utes won by only six in a game they returned a punt for a touchdown. Last week at Colorado, they trailed by 11 in the first half before turning it on after halftime for a 38-21 win and cover. Washington State has only gotten to take the field a total of three times this season. Last week’s game vs. Stanford was called off 90 minutes before kickoff. So the Cougars’ only game in the last month was an ugly 38-13 loss at USC, which was actually played on a Sunday. QB Jayden de Laura, who looked very sharp in the team’s first two games, did not play well against USC. I expect him to bounce back here. He’s completed 60% of his passes and the Wazzu rushing attack could be a lot better if Max Borghi is able to finally suit up. His replacement (Deon McIntosh) hasn’t been too shabby either, averaging 6.5 YPC vs. USC. 8* Washington State | |||||||
12-19-20 | Texas A&M v. Tennessee +14 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (12:00 ET): Texas A&M certainly has a lot at stake here. Currently #5 in the CFP rankings, the Aggies are first in line to move up if any of the top four stumble. If #2 Notre Dame were to defeat #3 Clemson later on Saturday, then the Tigers would almost certainly fall from the top four (would be their 2nd loss to ND). So the world is going to be on A&M here in Knoxville with the belief that “style points” matter. They really don’t though and a “dirty little secret” is that the Aggies have just ONE win by more than 13 points all season and that was against a South Carolina team that was eight days away from firing its HC. Two weeks ago, Tennessee gave me a nice win here at home vs. Florida, sliding right in through the backdoor. Though they were pretty thoroughly outplayed that day, the Volunteers hung in there with one of the better teams in the country. That coupled with last week’s 42-17 beatdown of Vanderbilt (snapped a six-game losing streak) MAY be enough to save HC Jeremy Pruitt’s job, but that’s far from certain. Pruitt definitely cannot afford a blowout loss here in the home finale. The “good news” is that the Vols’ last three losses have all come by 13 points or fewer. I know that A&M is perfect as a road favorite (5-0 ATS) under HC Jimbo Fisher and they’ve got something to play for here. But the number is definitely inflated and I’m taking the points. The Aggies have failed to cover all three times they’ve been double digit chalk this season and are a horrific 1-15 ATS off a bye (last week’s game vs. Ole Miss was cancelled). The Aggies’ offense has failed to impress me at times this season and the Tennessee defense has played a lot better of late, especially against the run as they’re giving up only 1.5 YPC the L2 weeks. 8* Tennessee | |||||||
12-18-20 | Ball State +14 v. Buffalo | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 9 m | Show |
8* Ball State (7:30 ET): Buffalo put the finishing touches on a perfect 5-0 regular season last Saturday with a 56-7 thrashing of Akron. The Bulls had already been declared MAC East Champs prior to that game, so it’s pretty impressive that they were able to go out and still dominate by such an overwhelming margin. Of course, it helps when you’re facing Akron. That’s kind of my view on Buffalo as a whole in 2020. Their resume looks really impressive, but when you consider they’ve faced Northern Illinois, Miami OH, Bowling Green, Kent St and Akron, 5-0 comes across more as “yeah, that BETTER be their WL record.” Ball State has played one more game than Buffalo, but also brings a 5-game win streak into Friday’s MAC Championship Game. The Cardinals lost the season opener to Miami OH (blew a DD lead in the 2H), but has been perfect ever since. While four of those wins were by seven points or less, that doesn’t matter when you’re the underdog like they are here. Ball State’s regular season schedule was much tougher than Buffalo’s as the last three weeks have seen the Cardinals defeat Toledo, Central Michigan and Western Michigan, two of those games coming on the road. The MAC Title Game, as per usual, is being played at Ford Field in Detroit. The conventional wisdom here seems to be that Buffalo is - by far - the best team in the MAC. But when 40% of your schedule was against two of the worst three teams in the country (Akron, Bowling Green), I’m not willing to co-sign that. Though Ball State will play without RB Caleb Huntley (opted out), they are more than capable of making a game of this. They have covered six straight as an underdog and I believe Buffalo is overvalued due to getting some national coverage for a 70-point game against Kent State a few weeks ago. Ball State is better than any team Buffalo has faced this season. 8* Ball State | |||||||
12-18-20 | UAB +5.5 v. Marshall | Top | 22-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 39 m | Show |
10* UAB (7:00 ET): Though this is the Conference USA Championship Game, it’s hardly a great “spot” for favored Marshall. Two week ago, the “bubble burst” in the Thundering Herd’s unbeaten season and it happened in one of the unlikeliest of ways, a 20-0 home loss to Rice. Ending up as the top “Group of 5” team is no longer in play, so motivation may be an issue here even though it's a Conference Championship Game. UAB is in its third straight C-USA Title Game (won ‘18, lost ‘19) and is arguably the better team here. Take the points. You’ve got two strong defenses here and on what’s going to be a chilly night in Huntington, points are likely to be at a premium. That makes the underdog all the more attractive in this scenario. Remember that Rice was without its starting QB when it upset Marshall. Of course, offense was the bigger issue for the Thundering Herd that day as they were shutout on the scoreboard and turned the ball over five times. It’s notable that a week later UAB beat Rice 21-16. UAB comes in at 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS. While they’ve been poor at the betting window, there are a couple things to keep in mind. One is that they played a number of games with a backup QB. Starter Tyler Johnston III is now back. Also, two of the Blazers’ three losses this season were by four points or less. The other was at Miami FL in a Thursday night game early in the season. Since then, the defense has allowed more than 24 points in just one game and that came in an OT loss where they blew a 2 TD lead in the 4Q. Not sure home field advantage means much in 2020 and then you’ve got the fact Marshall is just 6-13 ATS its L19 home games. 10* UAB | |||||||
12-17-20 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (8:25 ET): From the oddsmakers perspective, the Chargers “should” have a better won-loss record than the Raiders this year. LA has been favored in six games while Las Vegas has been the chalk in only four. The Chargers’ main problem, which is nothing new, has been a failure to win close games. They are just 3-7 SU in games decided by 7 points or less, though they did prevail in one last week 20-17 against Atlanta. While the Bolts have yet to win as an underdog this year and last won a division game in 2018, the close win last week gives me belief they can pull through here. Take the points. The Raiders’ recent form has been lousy with their only win in the L4 games coming by three points against the 0-13 Jets. If you recall, I faded them in that spot. They would have lost the game outright had it not been for the ineptitude of (now fired) Jets’ DC Gregg Williams. Speaking of bad defense, the Raiders have given up an average of 37.5 PPG these L4 weeks! Sunday marked the third time this season they allowed more than 40 points and the Colts also rolled up 200+ yards rushing AND passing. The Chargers have one of the league’s better offenses as they are top 10 in total yards and #4 in passing. Unlike the Raiders, the Chargers have outgained their opponents this season. The first time these AFC West rivals met very much embodied the kind of season it’s been for LA. They outgained the Raiders 440-320, yet lost on the scoreboard 31-26 when the potential GW TD was overturned. QB Justin Herbert threw for over 300 yards and should do so again here. The Chargers’ YTD point differential is quite comparable to the Raiders despite the disparate records. You have to figure that “elusive” division victory is coming soon for the Chargers and I say “why not here?” as this line should be read as a huge warning signal about the Raiders, who have failed to cover the L2 times they’ve been favored. 10* LA Chargers | |||||||
12-17-20 | Kansas v. Texas Tech -1.5 | Top | 58-57 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
10* Texas Tech (7:00 ET): It’s expected to be a very competitive game in Lubbock tonight as #14 Texas Tech hosts #5 Kansas. While KU has played the more challenging schedule of the two, this will be the Jayhawks’ first “true” road game of the season. The season in Lawrence began with a loss to Gonzaga. No shame there, especially with the Jayhawks winning six in a row since that lone loss. Texas Tech is also 6-1 and their only loss was to a very good Houston team on a neutral floor. Still doesn’t sound like much of an edge either way, right? Well, Kansas has had plenty of close calls during its six-game win streak, winning half those contests by four points or less. Wins over Kentucky, N Dakota St and Creighton have been by a total of eight points. The Jayhawks easily could have lost all three of those games as they trailed in the final minute against both N Dakota St and Creighton and then by nine at the half against a Kentucky team that has otherwise struggled in the early part of the season. The majority of Texas Tech’s wins so far have been blowouts as you’d expect given some of the opposition. Maybe that’s why my power rankings “like” the Red Raiders so much. I’ve got them as the higher rated team, safely in the Top 10 while Kansas is outside the Top 10. Kansas’ defense seems to have slipped this season, so I expect Texas Tech to turn around their recent shooting from 3-pt range. The Red Raiders are obviously again one of the nation’s best defensively as they already rank #1 in efficiency. 10* Texas Tech | |||||||
12-16-20 | TCU +5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 77-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
8* TCU (7:00 ET): Oklahoma State may have a nice, shiny 6-0 SU record, but they’ve covered the spread just twice and are unranked. That leads me to believe this isn’t a team you should place a ton of faith in moving forward. Tonight looks like a clear opportunity to fade as they open the Big 12 schedule against TCU. The Horned Frogs are now 5-2 SU on the year following an impressive 73-55 win against Texas A&M over the weekend. I would not be surprised if Jamie Dixon’s crew ended the Pokes’ unbeaten run here. Take the points. Oklahoma State’s last game was a close call at Wichita State where they won 67-64 as three-point road favorites. That was the Cowboys’ 4th win by eight points or less so far and second straight. They only managed to beat Oral Roberts by five last week here in Stillwater. I’m still not sure we know a ton about OK State right now, but we’re about to learn as they open the conference slate with this game, followed by trips to Texas and Texas Tech. What I can say with confidence is the Pokes won’t be unbeaten for much longer. TCU hasn’t had much success in Stillwater of late, losing eight of the last nine visits. This is their first true road game of 2020-21. But what we can lean on here is the Horned Frogs’ defense as they’ve given up an average of just 57.3 points in three neutral site games. With this likely to be a low-scoring game and OK State just 1-4 ATS when laying more than five points at the betting window, taking the dog is the way to go here. TCU covered against Oklahoma earlier in the year. 8* TCU | |||||||
12-15-20 | Western Carolina +15.5 v. VCU | Top | 68-93 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
10* Western Carolina (7:00 ET): Western Carolina has pulled off an incredible string of close victories this season in getting to 6-1. On Saturday, they downed North Carolina A&T 104-98 in overtime. However, that was a game they really “should have” finished off in regulation as they led by 13 with just over seven minutes remaining. As I already alluded to, winning close has been the norm for this WCU team as they have four wins by seven points or less. On the flip side, their only loss (to Troy) was by two. VCU has looked a little better than expected so far. Thanks to a couple of upsets over Utah State and Memphis in the first few games, the Rams are now 5-2 SU. They come into tonight riding a three-game winning streak, one of them by 36 over the same North Carolina A&T team that just took Western Carolina into OT. On Saturday, it was a 23-point victory over old CAA rival Old Dominion on Saturday. They’ve covered five in a row and are 6-1 ATS overall. The only non-cover was a 12-pt loss at a very good West Virginia team where they were 10.5-point underdogs. While VCU has been impressive in victory this year (all 5 wins by double digits), I don’t think they are going to be able to keep winning in such dominant fashion. With Western Carolina having played so many close games already, I expect another one tonight. The “Havoc” defense of VCU is going to be tested here by a Western Carolina team that shoots the ball very well (58.2% last game). The Catamounts have covered the last five times they’ve been a road underdog of 12.5 to 15 points. 10* Western Carolina | |||||||
12-14-20 | Ravens v. Browns +3 | Top | 47-42 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:15 ET): While I remain HIGHLY skeptical of the Browns’ long-term fortune, due to a -15 point differential and 6-0 SU record in games decided by 7 pts or less (lucky!), I’ve got them here as a home dog vs. the Ravens on MNF. Certainly many are going to point to the way Baltimore dismantled the Browns back in Week 1. However, that 38-6 win and cover (as 7-pt favorites) seems like “forever ago” and the Ravens simply have not been as dominant in 2020 as they were a season ago. You’ll want to take the points here. Baltimore had lost three in a row (all by 6 points or less) before beating a Dallas team that put up little effort on Tuesday. I don’t think we should put much stock in a win over the Cowboys at this point. The Browns aren’t the Cowboys, that’s for sure. Last week saw Baker Mayfield play perhaps the best half of his NFL career, leading his team to a ridiculous 38-7 halftime advantage. The final score of 41-35 is misleading to say the least as the Titans scored two touchdowns in the final two minutes. Mayfield had a career-high 4 TDs in the 1H last week. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Odell Beckham Jr was lost to a season-ending injury. That was six games ago and Mayfield had an 11-0 TD-INT ratio since the Beckham injury. The Browns have not trailed in three of their last four games and the one they did (Jacksonville) saw them down for only a brief time. This will be Baltimore’s third game in 12 days and second in a row on a short week. We saw how Pittsburgh looked last night in the same scenario. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
12-13-20 | Steelers +2.5 v. Bills | Top | 15-26 | Loss | -102 | 94 h 29 m | Show |
9* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): I view this as a tremendous “buy low” spot on the Steelers. That may sound strange considering this team has lost just one time all season. But that loss occurred last Monday, the same day Buffalo ended its long MNF losing streak with a 34-24 victory against San Francisco. The Steelers have certainly underwhelmed of late, not just with loss to Washington last Monday, but also with a less than stellar showing against what amounted to the Ravens’ backups two weeks ago. But they are 11-1, have one of the best defenses in football and should NOT be an underdog here. My power ratings were more in step with the lookahead line for this game, which had the Steelers as slight favorites. Shortly after the MNF results came in, the line quickly “jumped the fence” with the Bills now favored. I don’t buy it. Despite being 9-3, Buffalo doesn’t even have a top 10 point differential. Five of their wins have been in one-score games and remember that the 49ers team they just defeated was playing a lot of backups and the game WASN’T in San Francisco. The Bills are 1-7 ATS playing on a short week since 2016. Lots of other trends favor the road team here. Mike Tomlin is 17-5 ATS as a road dog against a team with a winning record. He is on a 10-2 ATS run as an underdog of any kind with eight outright wins. Pittsburgh is 8-4 ATS this season, the second best such record in the league. While Buffalo has covered four straight themselves, their pass-happy offense doesn’t figure to fare so well against what is probably the best pass defense in the entire league. The L3 weeks have seen the Steelers allow an average of just 247.7 YPG. 9* Pittsburgh | |||||||
12-13-20 | Portland State +10.5 v. Washington State | Top | 60-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
8* Portland State (5:00 ET): Washington State may be undefeated (4-0), but they have been living quite dangerously with all four wins coming by four points or fewer. All four wins have been here at the Palouse and save for a minor upset of Oregon State, the competition hasn’t exactly been fierce. The Cougars other three wins were against Texas Southern, Eastern Washington and Idaho. They went 0-3 ATS in those games. So there is hope here for a Portland State squad that may not be great, but was favored in its first road game of the season. Sadly for the Vikings, they lost that road game. It was the season opener vs. Portland and they fell 86-73 as 2.5-point chalk. Their only game since then was an 88-48 blowout of Northwestern College on Tuesday. Consider that to be a confidence builder as they go in to face a P5 foe on the road. Portland State held their opponent to 29.1% shooting on Tuesday, an encouraging sign seeing as Wazzu is shooting a paltry 35.9% on the season. While the Wazzu faithful are hoping that this can be the first dominant win of the season, I see a team ripe to be upset. Considering the Cougars’ four wins this year have been by a total of 14 points, the idea of them laying double digits to anybody seems questionable. They have had to rally from a double-digit deficit in each of the last three games! So they are a REALLY shaky 4-0. Furthermore, it looks as if they could be short-handed on Sunday. 8* Portland State | |||||||
12-13-20 | Cowboys v. Bengals +4 | Top | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 10 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): So the thought process here is pretty simple. Unless they’re playing the Jets, Dallas should not be a favorite against anybody, let alone on the road. America’s Team has really underperformed in Mike McCarthy’s first season, going a league-worst 2-10 ATS. Obviously, Cowboys’ fans can point a finger to the Dak Prescott injury, but the team was already struggling before the QB was lost for the season. McCarthy was a terrible hire and the Cowboys’ three wins this year have come by a combined seven points, none by more than a field goal. So yeah, take the points here. The Bengals also lost their starting QB to a season-ending injury and it may be a long-time before we see Joe Burrow again. That’s too bad because Cincinnati was pretty competitive with Burrow under center. While the immediate future may not be looking too rosy in Cincy, the team has remained competitive even without its rookie QB. Two weeks ago, I took them and they covered in a 2-point loss to the Giants. Last week saw them hang in against the 8-4 Dolphins, even taking a 7-6 lead into halftime. The team is 6-2 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss and now they are back home where they’ve covered four in a row. The big story of this game will be Andy Dalton returning to Cincinnati. But for me, it’s the opportunity to play against Dallas as a favorite. The ‘Boys have been favored five times this season and are 0-5 ATS in those games, losing three of those games outright. This is the just the 2nd time they’ve been favored since the Prescott injury (lost 41-16 to Washington on Thanksgiving). The run defense (167.8 YPG allowed) is the worst the league has seen in a decade and just gave up almost 300 yards to Baltimore last week. That game was on Tuesday and the Cowboys are 3-15 ATS since 2012 when playing w/ six or fewer days' rest. The Bengals defense has held 4 of the last 5 opponents to 20 points or less and the team has three losses by a FG or less. 8* Cincinnati | |||||||
12-13-20 | Texans v. Bears +1.5 | Top | 7-36 | Win | 100 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
8* Chicago (1:00 ET): That 5-1 start is a distant memory for the Bears, who have now lost six straight. The future of HC Matt Nagy in the Windy City is very much in doubt, even though he took this team to a division championship just two years ago. But at least he has Mitchell Trubisky! Wait, what? While Bears fans are probably still salty the team chose Trubisky instead of the opposing QB this week (DeShaun Watson), they can rest easy knowing the team has averaged a solid 25.8 PPG in Trubisky starts this season. As much as the Bears have struggled on the offensive side of the ball, they’re better with Trubisky under center and facing a terrible defense this week. Houston’s season has gone very differently than Chicago, though both now sport similar records. The Texans opened 0-4 with three of those losses coming to Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Kansas City. They’re 4-4 SU since the 0-4 start, but two of the wins were against Jacksonville. As I already mentioned, the Texans defense - even with JJ Watt - is abysmal. They are 30th in both yards allowed and efficiency. Losing a heartbreaker at home to Indianapolis last week (fumbled inside the Colts’ 5-yard line on the potential go-ahead drive) does this team no favors. I have these rated pretty evenly, so even with the Bears’ struggles over the last two months, I don’t think they should be an underdog at home this week. Houston isn’t just 4-8 SU, they are also 4-8 ATS. The Bears’ defense has been bad the L2 weeks, but the Texans offense just lost WR Will Fuller to a suspension and WR Brandin Cooks is questionable with foot and neck injuries. Four of the Bears’ last five games have been decided by one possession, so the fact they’ve lost all of them is a case of bad luck. This is a winnable game. 8* Chicago | |||||||
12-13-20 | Chiefs v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
8* Miami (1:00 ET): No one seems to take the Dolphins very seriously, despite their 8-4 SU record. Normally, I’d also be skeptical of a team with that record if they’ve been outgained on a per game/play basis like the ‘Fins have. But did you know that Miami has the FOURTH best point differential in the league this season (+91!)? They were my 10* NFL Game of the Year back on November 1st and that ended up being an outright 28-17 win as three-point dogs against the Rams. This spot feels eerily similar. Kansas City is one of three teams with a better YTD point differential than the Dolphins. But they’ve been far from dominant of late. Each of their last four wins have been by six points or less and they are 0-4 ATS in those games. Those four wins have been by a total of 15 points and they’ve trailed at halftime in three of them. Last week, as a double digit home favorite, they trailed a bad Denver team for much of the first three quarters and scored just one offensive TD. While Miami’s offense is hardly explosive, they can lean on a defense that has produced a turnover in 18 consecutive games (longest active streak in the league) and allowed the second fewest points in the league this season. They’ve allowed just 10 total points in the L2 games and 21 or less in six of the last seven contests. They’ve covered six of those seven games and are a league-best 18-6 ATS since their Week 5 bye last season. This is a game the Dolphins very much can win and really need for their playoff hopes. Take the points. 8* Miami | |||||||
12-12-20 | UNLV +20.5 v. Hawaii | Top | 21-38 | Win | 100 | 57 h 49 m | Show |
8* UNLV (11:00 ET): It certainly hasn’t been a good year for UNLV. In fact, last week’s game vs. Boise State was probably for the best as the Rebels were quite likely to take a beating in that one. This is a team that’s already 0-5 SU (0-4-1 ATS) with every loss coming by at least 13 points. Because of that, you know that they’re going to be getting a ton of points every Saturday. This week though, it’s too many as the opponent just isn’t deserving of this price range. Take the points. Two weeks ago, I took Hawaii. It was here at home, but they were GETTING points. The opponent was Nevada, undefeated at the time, and the Warriors ended up pulling off a 24-21 outright win (were +7.5). Unfortunately, they were unable to sustain that momentum last week against San Jose State. That despite being dealt a major advantage in that the game was moved from San Jose to Honolulu (COVID). Hawaii lost 35-24 to fall to 3-4 SU on the year. They’ve been favored only twice in 2020 and failed to cover both times. One time they lost outright (at Wyoming). The other, they could only beat a winless New Mexico team by six here on the Island. Hawaii’s three wins this season have been by a total of 24 points. So you can see why I’d be so skeptical of laying so many points with them here. UNLV doesn’t want to finish the season winless (who would?), thus I expect a solid effort out of the underdog. The Rebels can control this game in the trenches as Hawaii is not particularly strong on either side along the offensive or defensive lines. At the very least, a Hawaii defense allowing more than 6.0 yards per play will keep the backdoor open. 8* UNLV | |||||||
12-12-20 | Virginia v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 15-33 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
9* Virginia Tech (8:00 ET): Last year’s “Commonwealth Cup” was a rather sizable play for me. It was the day after Thanksgiving and my 10* College Football Game of the Year. I took Virginia, who had lost the previous 15 meetings, as a 2.5-point underdog. They won outright 39-30 thanks to a thrilling 4th quarter comeback (outscored Va Tech 19-3). Coming into this year, the two rivals are in much different form. Virginia is on a 4-game win streak and 5-0 ATS L5. Va Tech is on a 4-game losing streak while also going 0-4 ATS. For the first time in a LONG time, it “feels” like Virginia should be favored coming into this game. But it’s telling that they are not. Obviously, some of that has to do with the fact that the game is in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers have not won here since 1998 when they were ranked #16 in the country. Also, the entirety of UVA’s 4-game win streak has come in Charlottesville. One win was against a FCS foe. Last week they did beat Boston College for the 1st time ever, but the Eagles were without starting QB Phil Jurkovic and RB David Bailey. Despite this, the Hoos’ defense still allowed 32 points and 500+ yards. Almost all of those 500+ yards allowed came through the air. In fact, BC finished with -7 rush yards for the game after factoring in sack yardage. But Virginia Tech’s offense is #1 in the ACC in rushing yards, led by Khalil Herbert’s 7.6 yards per carry. Hokies HC Justin Fuente may very be coaching for his job Saturday night. Three of the Hokies’ six losses this year have been by a TD or less. They actually played Clemson pretty tough (for a half) last week despite losing the turnover battle and QB Hooker (he’s fine now). Virginia has not won a road game all year. Don’t be fooled by the records, Va Tech is better. 9* Virginia Tech | |||||||
12-12-20 | LSU +23.5 v. Florida | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 53 h 50 m | Show |
10* LSU (7:00 ET): LSU is once again “making history” in 2020, only unlike last season it’s a rather DUBIOUS history. Last week saw them close as a 28.5-point underdog at home vs. Alabama. That was the largest spread ever for a defending National Champion and the Tigers promptly got blown out 55-17. This week vs. Florida makes them the first team EVER to begin a season ranked in the Top 10 and end up being a 20+ point underdog in two separate games. Needless to say, it’s been a fairly ugly “fall from grace” for HC Ed Orgeron, who rode Joe Burrow to a National Championship 11 months ago. While I didn’t want to jump in front of the Alabama train last weekend, I do think this spread is far too high. My own power ratings say it should be closer to a 2 TD spread. That’s a lot of value. I successfully faded Florida last Saturday as I thought they were far too big of a favorite in Knoxville. While they did outgain Tennessee pretty substantially, it ended up being a 31-19 final due to a competitive first half and late Volunteers’ touchdown. This will be the 2nd largest Florida-LSU spread ever and largest since 1994 when Florida didn’t cover. By beating Tennessee last weekend, Florida has clinched a spot in next week’s SEC Championship Game where they’ll get their crack at top ranked Alabama. So this is a classic lookahead spot for the Gators. Obviously, the lookahead line for this game was a lot lower, not just at the start of the season, but even just a few weeks ago. This number is a product of recency bias and I just can’t see LSU getting blown out again. They’ve got too much talent and Orgeron is still on a 6-1 SU run after an SEC loss, not to mention 6-3 ATS as a dog despite last week’s result. Take the points. 10* LSU | |||||||
12-12-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Troy +14 | Top | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
8* Troy (3:00 ET): It’s not hyperbole to say last week’s 22-17 win over BYU was the biggest achievement in the history of Coastal Carolina football. The Chanticleers are now 10-0 SU and heading to the Sun Belt Championship Game (next week vs. Louisiana), not to mention maybe some place bigger if they win the next two games. That they were able to beat BYU, as a 10-pt underdog, on such short notice deserves a tip of the cap. But what about this week’s game? It sure feels like a “sandwich spot” and that’s dangerous when laying double digits on the road to a decent team. Troy is just 5-5 SU on the year and a money-burning 2-8 ATS. But they are off perhaps their most complete effort of the season, a 29-0 shutout of South Alabama where the defense allowed just 239 total yards. Back in the season opener, I took the Trojans when they rolled to a 47-14 win over Middle Tennessee. In my analysis, I stated I expected this team to improve from last season when it finished just 5-7 SU (three straight 10+ win seasons before that). That hasn’t really materialized, but there’s been some extenuating circumstances. QB Watson has missed time with a rib injury, COVID has interrupted the schedule and there have been three losses by seven points or less. I just think it is going to be very hard for Coastal Carolina to prevail here by double digits. In addition to the letdown/lookahead nature of the spot, they were actually outgained by BYU last week, 405-366. They needed a tackle at the goal line to win the game. Remember that the Chanticleers were not just picked to finish behind Troy this season, but also LAST in the entire Sun Belt. With Watson back in the lineup last week, Troy more closely resembled the team I expected at the start of this season. This game was originally supposed to be played on November 14th. It being moved to this week is more of an advantage to the home dog. Take the points. 8* Troy | |||||||
12-12-20 | Minnesota +11 v. Nebraska | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 46 h 54 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (12:00 ET): I fully understand that PJ Fleck’s Golden Gophers have fallen short of expectations this season. Furthermore, the team has been hit hard by COVID with 40+ players/staff testing positive and the last two games getting cancelled as a result. As if that wasn’t rough enough, WR Rashod Bateman - arguably the best player on the team - has decided to opt out in order to prepare for the NFL Draft. That all being said, I just feel the number this week at Nebraska is way too high. Nebraska has looked a lot better the last two weeks, particularly in last Saturday’s 37-27 win at Purdue. The week before, I took them and it was a pretty easy cover as double digit underdogs against Iowa. But this week will mark just the second time all season that the Cornhuskers have been favored to win a game. The first was three weeks ago vs. Illinois and they promptly lost that game - outright - as 17-point chalk. Given the ‘Huskers’ two wins this season are by a combined 17 points, and they were outgained substantially in one of those wins, this is not a good candidate to lay double digits with. The last four meetings of these Big 10 West rivals has seen the home team go 4-0. The last three years have all been decided victories. But Minnesota rarely gets blown out under Fleck. One of their three losses this year came by a single point. They too beat Purdue three weeks ago and save for the Iowa game, the offense has been quite productive (40+ pts in both road games). Even without Bateman, I expect the Gophers to score a decent amount here. They are 4-1 ATS L5 as a road underdog while Nebraska is just 1-5 ATS its L6 as a favorite. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
12-12-20 | Wake Forest +2.5 v. Louisville | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -103 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
8* Wake Forest (12:00 ET): Wake Forest boasts an impressive 6-1 ATS record and I’ve been fortunate to cash in on them multiple times. The first time was in a 37-13 LOSS to Clemson. As you probably ascertained, the line for that game (season opener) was quite high. The next time was “more like it” (especially if you’re from Winston-Salem) as the Demon Deacons pulled an outright upset over Virginia Tech, 23-16 as 10.5-point underdogs. Then I took them again vs. North Carolina, which ended up as a 59-53 loss, but they still covered +12.5. That North Carolina game seems like FOREVER ago, so I was surprised when I saw it’s the last game Wake Forest has played. It was nearly one month ago to the date. It’s actually the only game they’ve played since October! Despite the long layoff, I expect the team to play well here. The offense, led by QB Sam Hartman, is averaging 39.3 PPG this season. They’ve scored 40 or more four times. They led North Carolina by 21 in the second half. The only other loss besides that and Clemson was by three points to an 8-win NC State team. The Deacons could very easily be on a 6-game SU win streak heading into this game. Louisville has also been victimized by some close losses this season. They are 3-7 SU, but four of those losses have been by 7 points or less. Still that didn’t stop HC Scott Satterfield from exploring an offer to take the South Carolina job, which angered fans and I’m sure his players. Unlike Wake Forest, who hosts Florida State next week, this is Louisville’s final game. They are likely not going bowling and may not be too excited to play for a coach that just thought about leaving the program. All three L’ville wins this season have been against pretty bad teams. Don’t see them winning here against what I feel is one of the more underrated teams in the country. 8* Wake Forest | |||||||
12-11-20 | Nevada v. Grand Canyon +1 | Top | 77-87 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
8* Grand Canyon (9:00 ET): Grand Canyon University is off to a 3-0 start having waxed Mississippi Valley State by 39 points 10 days ago. That 88-49 win was the Antelopes’ third straight (victory) by double digits to open the 2020-21 season, though the level of competition hasn’t been particularly strong. Case in point; they were 32.5-pt favorites over MVSU. Still the fact that the Antelopes have been bet to the role of favorite tonight vs. Nevada should tell you “all you need to know” about the respect this team deserves. Nevada is off to a 4-1 SU start, having just defeated William Jessup 86-64 on Monday. Obviously, that wasn’t much of a test. Before that easy win, the Wolf Pack suffered a horrible 25-point loss to San Francisco on December 2nd, a game where they were 2.5-point home favorites. That result carries more weight for me when handicapping tonight’s matchup. Before Monday’s game, Nevada had not shot the ball particularly well this season. Though it’s been against weak competition, Grand Canyon looks great so far and deserves to be favored in this matchup. The Antelopes have revenge from an 8-point loss two years ago. That game was played on a neutral floor and you can bet the upperclassmen remember it. Nevada has been held below 40% shooting in two of its games thus far. They had to replace all five starters from last year, a problem for sure, so there are going to be growing pains like we saw vs. San Francisco. With Bryce Drew on the bench, GCU is going to improve a lot on the defensive end this year and three of last year’s four leading scorers are back. 8* Grand Canyon | |||||||
12-11-20 | Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25 v. VfL Wolfsburg | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 41 h 37 m | Show |
10* Eintracht Frankfurt (2:30 ET): Please note that this is a goal line selection where I’m taking Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25. Obviously, a win is what we’re looking for here. But by betting this way, we win even if the match is a draw. Given these two Bundesliga sides have drawn in 13 of their combined 20 league matches thus far, this seems like a savvy bet. The Bundesliga is shaping up to be an interesting league this season. You’ve got the three expected teams at the top - Bayern, RB Leipzig and Borussia Dortmund - but also two unbeaten clubs, Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg. But Die Wolf still only sits 5th in the table because they’ve won just 4 of their 10 matches. They’ve played to a draw in the other six. I thought they were a bit lucky to remain unbeaten on the campaign as last week’s saw them barely escape with the 2-2 draw against FC Koln. Twice they were down a goal. Eventually this club is going to lose. Why not today? Eintracht Frankfurt is a side I was hoping to see improve this year and move up the table. Maybe that still happens? They are currently 9th in the table and are actually on a five-match unbeaten streak. Now all five of those matches did result in a draw. The latest was last week vs. BVB 1-1. Frankfurt’s last Bundesliga win was actually back on October 3rd vs. Hoffenheim. But they’ve only been beaten once the entire campaign and that was by Bayern Munich. Take that fixture away and Frankfurt has a positive goal differential on the year. They are desperate for the three points here. Don’t be surprised if they get them. 10* Eintracht Frankfurt +0.25 | |||||||
12-10-20 | Portland v. Oregon State -13.5 | Top | 87-86 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
10* Oregon State (8:00 ET): Oregon State is off B2B outright losses at the hands of Wyoming and Washington State, but should get back on track tonight against a lowly in-state foe. Both OSU losses have been close. They lost by four at Wazzu, then by only three to Wyoming. That Wyoming loss really stung as the Beavers led by six with under two minutes to go. They led Washington State by double digits early in the second half of that game as well. Really, the Beavers easily could be coming into this game unbeaten at 4-0. Portland is 3-1 and on a three-game win streak, but two of those three wins came against non-board teams. They did just beat rival Portland State 86-73 as a 2.5-point home dog last Saturday. The fact the Pilots were home dogs to a team like Portland State should speak volumes. I’ve got Portland ranked outside my top 300. As a reminder, there are “only” 347 D-I College Hoops teams. The Pilots have never won more than 11 games in any of HC Terry Porter’s previous four seasons here and are a terrible 7-61 SU in conference play. Oregon State’s problems thus far have been turnovers and a bizarrely low FG% on 2-point attempts. We should see those issues rectified tonight in what shapes up to be a “get-well game” for them. Portland also has turnover issues and while they do a great job at getting to the free throw line, they are outside the top 300 in the country in offensive efficiency, which is very bad. Oregon State should have a significant edge on the boards in this matchup and will be looking for a “pound of flesh” after blowing 2H leads in the L2 games. 10* Oregon State | |||||||
12-09-20 | Boise State +5 v. BYU | Top | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
10* Boise State (9:00 ET): Boise State is going to look to exact some revenge here for what happened on the football field. In case you forgot, the Broncos’ football team suffered its only loss of the season at BYU earlier this year and it came in embarrassing fashion on the blue turf. The hoops team heads to Provo, looking to build off an 86-55 win over Sam Houston State that came all the way back on 11/29. The Broncos only other game this season was a 68-58 loss at Top 10 Houston. BYU has been much busier than Boise State thus far as they come with a 5-1 SU record on the year. They’re off B2B wins (against St. John’s and Utah State), the latter coming on the road by three points. The Cougars weren’t tested during a 3-0 start and then suffered a blowout loss at the hands of USC, 79-53 as 3.5-point chalk. Tonight will be the most points they’ve had to lay since that game and my power ratings say the number is too high. I’ve got these teams rated pretty evenly and home court advantage just doesn’t mean much right now. Boise State has really struggled from three-point range thus far, making only 21.5% of their attempts. I expect that number to start going up immediately. The Broncos do an excellent job at crashing the glass and getting to the free throw line. They also are excellent at forcing turnovers (20th in NCAA) and defending the three-point line (22.9%). Those numbers are significant as BYU has a high turnover percentage (22.1% of its offensive possessions) and struggles at the FT line. This is a good matchup for the underdog. Take the points. 10* Boise State | |||||||
12-09-20 | SIU-Edwardsville +12 v. Valparaiso | Top | 58-80 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
8* SIU Edwardsville (7:00 ET): I don’t think Valpo should be laying double digits to anybody right now, even a “lesser” opponent like SIU Edwardsville. The Crusaders opened the season with three straight road defeats, one of them as a favorite to old Horizon League foe IL-Chicago. (The other two were at Purdue and Vanderbilt, so to be fair a strong start was unlikely). An 85-45 win over Judson College on Sunday was pretty meaningless considering that the opponent was a non-DI team. SIU Edwardsville started with an ugly loss at Saint Louis, but has since been a competitive squad. It’s other two losses were to LSU (easily covered that game as 30-pt underdogs) and Saturday at home vs. Omaha (by just two points). The Cougars pulled an upset in their last road game, beating Northern Illinois (by 20!) as a nine-point underdog! Having lost each of the L2 seasons to Valpo (by a total of just 18 points), the Cougars will be looking for revenge. Valpo has struggled from distance so far, shooting just 28% from three-point range. Even if that number is set to improve (it probably will), it’s going to be tough to cover a large spread such as this one. SIU Edwardsville has shot better than 50% in three of its five games and is much more proficient from behind the arc (including an impressive 41.8% in four games away from home). A poor 1H cost the Cougars the game against Omaha on Saturday. They’ll come out sharper here. 8* SIU Edwardsville | |||||||
12-08-20 | Illinois +4 v. Duke | Top | 83-68 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
8* Illinois (9:30 ET): It was exactly one week ago that I took Michigan State plus the points here at Cameron Indoor and watched as the underdog pulled off the outright upset. Could Duke suffer another outright loss to a Big 10 opponent at home? Yes, I think so. I’ve got Illinois rated even higher than Michigan State, so this is a no brainer for me. I expect an outright win, but will take the points with the better team. Even after factoring in the minimal home court edge, I still think the Illini should be favored tonight. A young Duke team is off to an 0-3 ATS start. In addition to the outright loss to Michigan State last Tuesday, the Blue Devils did not cover against Coppin State in the opener or against Bellarmine on Friday. Now to be fair, they were favored by more than 30 in both games. But those spreads also reflect the fact Duke is overvalued right now. According to my own personal power ratings, they are not even a Top 25 team, let alone #10. Their current ranking is completely based on reputation. Coach K is also still trying to figure out his starting lineup. Eight different Blue Devils have found their way into the starting lineup in the first three games, which is a reflection of how young the squad is. Illinois is a veteran team looking to bounce back from a double digit loss to #2 Baylor. That was a close game for the first 30 minutes before Baylor pulled away. Note that while Duke lost by “only” 6 to Michigan State, they trailed by double digits much of the second half. 8* Illinois | |||||||
12-08-20 | Kent State +1.5 v. Detroit | Top | 80-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
10* Kent State (7:00 ET): I thought the oddsmakers made an error when they opened Detroit as the favorite for this game and it appears as if I wasn’t alone in that assessment given how the line has already moved. The Golden Flashes gave Virginia all they could handle over the weekend (in Charlottesville!), taking the Hoos into overtime and coming up only seven points short. They were 18.5-point underdogs, so they covered the spread easily. The only other game Kent State has played was a 90-41 win over Point Park. Detroit is 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS as they’ve covered the spread against Michigan State and Notre Dame. Both games have come in the last five days. The Titans were very fortunate to draw Michigan State just a few days after Sparty went to Cameron and upset Duke. The situation played out just as you might think as Detroit took advantage of MSU being in the letdown spot, staying even for most of the game before losing 83-76. On Sunday, the Titans lost by eight at Notre Dame, a game they were expected to lose by 12. Though Detroit has played two P5 teams tough thus far, they are the ones in a bit of a letdown spot Tuesday night. The team is probably somewhat discouraged by the fact they didn’t win either game and isn’t likely to “get up” as much for an opponent like Kent State. So look for the Golden Flashes to take full advantage as they are better rested and confident after taking Virginia to OT. Had it not been for FTs, they would have won that game. Another reason they should be confident is that they beat Detroit by 35 points last season. 10* Kent State | |||||||
12-07-20 | NC-Wilmington +9.5 v. East Carolina | Top | 78-88 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
8* UNC Wilmington (5:00 ET): UNC Wilmington is gunning for a third consecutive upset here as they travel to face 3-0 East Carolina. The Seahawks have previously beaten UNC Asheville and Troy, games where they were six and three-point dogs, respectively. All three of their games thus far were played in Asheville (which is a lovely place to visit) as part of a tournament to open the season. They are led by Jaylen Sims, who is coming off a career-high 29 pts vs. Troy and averaging 26.7 PPG (on 63% shooting) overall. East Carolina might be unbeaten, but that’s a byproduct of who they’ve played. A season-opening win over Charlotte was a decent resume builder, but since then it’s been victories over NC Wesleyan (non-DI opponent) and Radford. The Pirates’ defense has been pretty good so far as they are allowing just 56.3 PPG, but I don’t expect that to continue. UNC Wilmington has scored 73 or more points in all three games and shoots very well (40%) from three-point range. The Seahawks have two other double-digit scorers besides Sims. While UNCW did allow 98 points to Western Carolina in the season opener, they’ve been much better defensively in the last two games, particularly vs. Troy. They held the Trojans below 30% shooting for the game and allowed only 50 points. While not expected to make a ton of noise in the Colonial this season, the Seahawks deserve more respect than they’re getting here against a team that’s overrated simply because they have a “0” in the loss column. 8* UNC Wilmington | |||||||
12-06-20 | California +10.5 v. UCLA | Top | 56-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
10* California (8:00 ET): The university from Berkeley treated me so well yesterday on the football field (outright win over Oregon as my 10* NCAAF Game of the Week) that I thought I’d try the basketball team on Sunday. In all seriousness, me taking both programs on the same weekend is mere coincidence as this play is all about my skepticism over UCLA being ranked in the Top 25. I don’t see it. The Bruins’ season started with them losing outright (as a 3-pt favorite) to San Diego State. While it was a road game, they lost by 15 points and only managed to score 58 points on 39.5% shooting. From there, they did score 107 points the next game, but that was because of TRIPLE overtime. The Bruins were extremely fortunate to get the ATS win against Pepperdine (won 107-98) as they were NOT covering the 7-point spread for roughly 99% of the game. After a game with Long Beach State was postponed, UCLA finally got to play its home opener Thursday and it was their most complete effort to date. But that 78-52 win came against lowly Seattle, who was a 20-point underdog. Cal is 2-2 SU, but 0-2 in Pac 12 play. They’ve suffered losses to Oregon State and Arizona State, both coming by exactly eight points. The Bears didn’t shoot well in either game (just under 40% overall) and really struggled from 3-point range. But I didn’t exactly see great defense from UCLA in their first two games. Thus the Bears should see improved shooting tonight. The eight-point final margin against Arizona State was actually somewhat misleading as it was the largest they faced the entire game. It was a close game throughout. The same should end up being true here. Take the points. 10* California | |||||||
12-06-20 | Patriots v. Chargers +1 | Top | 45-0 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 31 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (4:25 ET): The Chargers were “spared” what would have been yet another close loss last week as QB Justin Herbert was stuffed at the goal line on the final play. That cost me a cover though (would have been a 6-0 Sunday!). Thus it ended up being a 24-14 loss in Buffalo (I did cash the Under), dropping the Chargers to 3-8 SU on the year. They did outgain the Bills (ever so slightly), 367-332. Seven of those eight losses have been by eight points or less with four of them seeing LA blow a double digit lead! I realize you could say this most years, but the Chargers really are better than their record. The Patriots really had no business winning last week. The offense gained only 179 total yards at a pathetic 3.5 yards per play. This offense - with Cam Newton at the helm - just isn’t very good. Over the L8 weeks, New England has scored more than 23 points only one time and that was against the winless Jets. Though the market continues to show them respect (Belichick factor?), I think it’s important to realize the Pats are simply a below average football team right now. They’ve been outgained on the year - both per game and per play - and been outscored by 26 points. Newton has a 4-9 TD-INT ratio and will be missing his left tackle. Home field advantage may not mean much to the Chargers, especially this year, but they really should be at least a three-point favorite in this spot. This is a team that led the Chiefs, Bucs and Saints by double digits! The one bright spot of the season has been the play of rookie QB Justin Herbert, who is averaging over 300 YPG. RB Austin Ekler returned last week and had 129 total yards. The Patriots defense is giving up 7.6 yards per attempt, which ranks 31st. “Now or never” (for the Chargers) might seem a bit hyperbolic, but after five straight ATS losses, they really should win here. 10* LA Chargers | |||||||
12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 11 m | Show |
9* Arizona (4:05 ET): When they were 5-2 SU, the Cardinals were looking like one of the real pleasant surprises in the league. I figured this would be an improved outfit in Kliff Kingsbury’s second season at the helm, but the last four weeks have been a bit concerning. The Cards have failed to cover four in a row and the lone SU win in that stretch came on a Hail Mary pass at home vs. Buffalo. Following a tough loss last week at New England, they return home this week and are underdogs in a key NFC West matchup. The Rams are 7-4 SU, one game ahead of Arizona for second place in the division. They too are off a loss as they fell 23-20 at home to San Francisco. In looking at the Rams’ home vs. road splits, the one thing that becomes apparent is that their defense seems to “fail to travel.” They are giving up 23.3 PPG on the road, not a bad number, but it’s a lot more than the 15.0 PPG they’re allowing at home. As a road favorite, the Rams are just 1-2 SU/ATS this season. They are 3-5 SU/ATS L8 games as a road fave of 3 pts or less. Also, take away the four games against the sorry NFC East and the Rams are just 3-3 SU overall this year. Arizona should have beaten New England last week, but missed the potential game-winning FG with under two minutes to go. That allowed the Patriots to go kick the GW. The Cardinals’ defense allowed just 179 yards. While both of these offenses have had success running the football, Arizona is 1st in yards per carry while the Rams are only 18th. I vehemently disagreed with the way the line moved in LA’s favor early in the week and think this is a great “buy low” spot on the Cardinals, who will be quite eager to beat Rams HC Sean McVay for the first time in seven tries. 9* Arizona | |||||||
12-06-20 | Raiders v. Jets +9 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 91 h 7 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): Yes, I’m taking the winless Jets (0-11) this week. My suspicions over Las Vegas were confirmed last week when they suffered an atrocious 43-6 loss in Atlanta. As someone who had the Falcons +3 and was quite confident about the bet, even I could not have fathomed that result. The game was never really competitive and the Raiders turning it over five times certainly didn’t help. Something I want to reiterate from last week is just how few times Las Vegas has been favored this season. This will be only the 4th time it's happened. They are lucky to be 6-5 SU considering they have a -27 pt differential. With so little positives emanating from the Jets’ side of things, this is obviously a clear fade on the Silver and Black. I just don’t think that the Raiders should be favored by this many points on the road, against anybody. This matchup is obviously the “litmus test” for that assessment, but it’s worth noting that my own personal power ratings say this spread should only be -2.5! This will be the first time the Raiders close as a road favorite of 7 pts or more since 2002, which was the year they went to the Super Bowl with Rich Gannon as the MVP. That was a LONG time ago. Let’s try and pick out SOME positives with the Jets, shall we? RB Frank Gore should have a big game this week facing a suspect Raiders’ run defense. QB Sam Darnold, who has not thrown a TD pass in his last 19 quarters of action, is due. Before losing 20-3 to Miami last week, New York had covered three of four with losses to Buffalo, New England and the Chargers all coming by 8 points or fewer. With just one home game left after this week, this may be the Jets’ best shot at avoiding a winless season. No one wants to go 0-16, so I expect effort. Take the points. 8* NY Jets | |||||||
12-05-20 | Fresno State +6.5 v. Nevada | Top | 26-37 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
8* Fresno State (9:00 ET): Gonna go ahead and fade Nevada in the late night spot again as the Wolf Pack showed last week they are not a good team to lay points with. They lost outright on “the Island” (Hawaii), 24-21, trailing for the entire second half. While it was their first loss of the season, three of Nevada’s five victories thus far have come in one possession games and they’ve hardly faced a daunting schedule. Despite the outright loss last week, my power ratings say the Wolf Pack remains overvalued. This will be Fresno State’s first game in three weeks. They come in as winners of three straight (also 3-0 ATS) as they’ve predictably bounced back a bit from LY’s disappointing 4-win campaign. (The previous two years saw the Bulldogs go 22-6 SU overall). Over the course of the current 3-game run, FSU has averaged 37.7 points and 486.7 yards. So them getting this many points seems like quite the ideal situation. They are on a 3-1 ATS run vs. Nevada and have won five of the last eight H2H meetings outright. Fresno has also played well on the road the last few years, going 9-6 SU and 10-5 ATS. They are 5-2 ATS the L7 times they’ve been an underdog, picking up three outright wins. These Mountain West rivals seem pretty evenly matched to me, so taking the points is a no brainer. Only two of Nevada’s games have been decided by more than two points and those were against UNLV and Utah State, who are a combined 1-10 SU. Something from last week’s analysis I’d like to reiterate is that Nevada’s third down conversion percentage and red zone efficiency are unlikely to be maintained. Fresno State’s defense does an excellent job at getting to the QB. 8* Fresno State | |||||||
12-05-20 | Baylor +22 v. Oklahoma | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
9* Baylor (8:00 ET): Since suffering B2B upset losses at the hands of Kansas State and Iowa State, #11 Oklahoma has really seized control of its destiny in the Big 12. The Sooners have rattled off five consecutive victories, averaging 50.2 PPG in the process. They’ve covered the spread in all five games as well. They were scheduled to go to Morgantown (West Virginia) last weekend, but that game had to be rescheduled for December 12th due to COVID. After such an impressive stretch, I’m not surprised to see OU a bit overvalued this week and don’t be surprised if they come out rusty after the unexpected week off. Baylor’s season has very much been the opposite of Oklahoma’s. They’ve won just one time since opening the season with a 47-14 win against lowly Kansas. But all five losses have been relatively close (by 11 pts or fewer) and the Bears did come from behind to down Kansas State last week, 32-31, as QB Charlie Brewer completed 80% of his pass attempts for 349 yards. Brewer also ran for 56 yards and was responsible for four touchdowns. One good sign for Baylor is that they’ve yet to lose the turnover battle in a single game this season and they’ve forced a total of eight turnovers in the L3 games. The Bears easily could have a better record than 2-5 SU as they’ve blown leads in three of their losses. That’s a far cry from last season when they were winning all the close games en route to an appearance in the Big 12 Championship Game … vs. Oklahoma. They played OU tough in both meetings last year, losing by a total of just 10 points. Last week’s comeback should give them some much needed confidence and as good as Oklahoma has looked recently, they can’t keep performing at that level every Saturday. Baylor is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games and is 11-5-1 ATS L17 games as the underdog. 9* Baylor | |||||||
12-05-20 | Oregon v. California +9 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* California (7:00 ET): Oregon was a big-time fade (-13.5 @ Oregon State) on this end last week. Sure enough, they lost outright in Corvallis by a score of 41-38. I think the initial belief most bettors have when looking at a line like this is “the Ducks aren’t going to lose twice in a row.” But that can be a dangerous mindset to have, especially seeing just how shaky Oregon has been to this point. California, who is 0-3, comes in desperate here. Maybe they don’t follow in Oregon State’s “footsteps” and pull off the outright upset. But they’ll keep it close and at least cover the spread. Take the points. Cal isn’t as bad as its record. While they were blown out by UCLA (34-10) in the season opener, go ahead and write that result off as they played that one “impromptu” with a limited roster on a Sunday morning. Since then they’ve lost close to both Oregon State and Stanford, by a combined five points. They had the total yardage edge in both games and last week’s one-point loss to Stanford was BRUTAL as the Bears had the potential game-tying extra point BLOCKED in the final minute. This is a good number to be catching seeing as how Cal is 18-8 ATS as a dog (11 outright wins) under HC Justin Wilcox including 7-3 ATS when taking double digits (four outright wins). To all thinking “bounce back” (for Oregon) this week, a Ducks’ defense that gave up 532 yards to Oregon State should give you pause. In their last three games, Oregon has allowed an average of 35.0 points and 471.7 yards. In last year’s 17-7 win at Berkeley, the Ducks faced a Cal team that didn’t have starting QB Chase Garbers (injured). Garbers was 7-0 SU as the starter in 2019 and should have a “big game” here against the porous Oregon defense. Cal could easily be 2-1 SU right now while Oregon is lucky it isn’t 2-2 (as they were +4 in turnovers in a 38-35 win over UCLA two weeks ago). 10* California | |||||||
12-05-20 | Florida v. Tennessee +17.5 | Top | 31-19 | Win | 100 | 49 h 54 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (3:30 ET): Tennessee comes into this game really “down in the dumps” as HC Jeremy Pruitt is firmly on the hot seat in Knoxville. An upset of #6 Florida would do wonders when it comes to saving Pruitt’s job. Not saying that’s going to happen Saturday, but taking the points is the way to go in this heated SEC rivalry where you can “throw records out the window.” If the Volunteers, losers of five in a row SU & ATS, can’t keep this one close at home and off a bye, then Pruitt is likely a “goner.” Since suffering its lone defeat of the season, 41-38 at Texas A&M, Florida has WON five in a row. So we’re looking at the complete opposite trajectory of Tennessee. However, with the exception of the big win over Georgia, the Gators have really been beating up on the dregs of the Southeastern Conference. The other four wins have been against: Kentucky, Vandy, Arkansas and Missouri. One more win gets the Gators into their first SEC Championship Game since 2016, likely against #1 Alabama. The thing is I don’t think HC Dan Mullen is looking for any “style points” at this juncture. He just wants the win. Tennessee led Auburn 10-0 two weeks ago, which was the last time we saw them. The game really swung on a 100-yard ‘pick-six’ thrown by Vols QB Jarrett Guarantano. There is some speculation that Guarantano is one of the several Tennessee players in quarantine. Because of the two week layoff, many are still expected to play Saturday. Even if Guarantano doesn’t play, look out for freshman QB Harrison Bailey to possibly provide a spark. I know things aren’t looking good in Knoxville and it’s tough to make a case, but look for UT to keep this one closer than expected. Note: Florida has been favored by 17 or more just two times against Tennessee. Both were in Gainesville and they went 0-2 ATS, even losing one outright (2001). Take the points. 8* Tennessee | |||||||
12-05-20 | Texas A&M v. Auburn +6.5 | Top | 31-20 | Loss | -106 | 46 h 30 m | Show |
8* Auburn (12:00 ET): Auburn was clearly outclassed last week in a 42-13 loss to Alabama. But the good news (for them) is that the “Iron Bowl” comes but only once a year. Now they are faced with yet another Top 5 opponent this week in Texas A&M. But the Aggies looked thoroughly unimpressive in a 20-7 win over LSU last weekend in College Station. Even Auburn was able to beat “those Tigers” 48-11. Key here is this game is at Jordan-Hare, which means Auburn QB Bo Nix should play well (he usually does at home). I disagree with the line move as well and think we’re now getting a real solid value on the home dog. Auburn has a really strong home vs. road dichotomy this season as they are 4-0 SU here at Jordan-Hare (winning by an average of 17.0 PPG), but just 1-3 SU on the road. Going back to 2016, this will be just the 7th time that the Tigers are catching points at home. They’ve gone 5-1 ATS previously with four outright wins. Despite having lost three times this season, I still consider Auburn a Top 25 team in the country and my own power ratings have this game as a near pick ‘em. Despite being ranked #5 by the committee, Texas A&M is no Alabama (remember they lost to the Crimson Tide by 28 points themselves. A&M has been just as inconsistent as Auburn this season and it's usually because of the offense. They only barely beat Vanderbilt in the season opener and then last week could only put up 20 on an LSU defense that had REALLY been struggling. Of the two touchdowns they scored, one was by the defense. So the offensive performance was even WORSE than you think as they put up less than 300 total yards and the lone TD scored came on a big 52-yard run. Off their last 10 SEC losses, Auburn is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS, so history says they are going to play a lot better this week. Take the points. 8* Auburn | |||||||
12-05-20 | Kansas +27.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 45 h 25 m | Show |
8* Kansas (12:00 ET): If you’ve been betting against Kansas this year, chances are you’ve done quite well for yourself. The Jayhawks currently check in with an 0-7-1 against the spread record and have yet to win a game straight up. The Over is 7-0-1 in their games as they’ve given up an average of 49.8 points. But a brief glimmer of hope appeared last week in the form of QB Miles Kendrick, who came in and completed 11 of 16 pass attempts for 166 yards and two touchdowns. We’d seen Kendrick previously this season, but that relief effort almost assuredly will earn him the starting gig for this Saturday’s game at Texas Tech. This is a dangerous number for Texas Tech to be laying this week. (Update: TT coach Matt Wells tested positive for COVID). Sure, Kansas isn’t good. But neither are the Red Raiders, who come in at 3-6 SU and ATS. They are off a narrow loss to Oklahoma State, 50-44, where they covered the 12.5-point spread due to a pair of late scores. While Kansas is universally recognized as the worst team in the Big 12, Texas Tech is definitely the second worst. Their three wins this season have come by a total of 10 points. One of them was against a FCS opponent (Houston Baptist) where they had to stop a 2-point conversion in the final minutes. This is the first time they’ve been favored since that game, which was the season opener. Thanks to Kendrick, KU matched its season high in scoring last week with 23 points (against TCU). This week they face a Red Raiders defense that just surrendered 50 points and 539 yards to an Oklahoma State team that was without its top two running backs. I predict the Jayhawks will achieve a new season-high in points this week as Texas Tech is giving up 39.3 points and 470.6 yards per game. As bad as Kansas has been in 2020, it seems improbable that they could go an entire season without covering a game. They allowed THREE non-offensive TDs last week, which won't happen again. Texas Tech doesn’t deserve to be favored by this many points against anybody and remember they are the last team to lose to Kansas (37-34 last season). My power rankings say this number is off by a full TD. Hold your nose and take the points! 8* Kansas | |||||||
12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette +2.5 v. Appalachian State | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 59 h 43 m | Show |
8* Louisiana (8:30 ET): Normally, with the Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. unbeaten Coastal Carolina) on deck, this might be considered a “look ahead” spot for Louisiana. But not with the Ragin Cajuns’ history against Appalachian State. This is a major revenge game for the Sun Belt West Champs as they have lost eight consecutive times to App State, including twice last season. But it “feels” like this is the 1st time Louisiana (who is ranked 24th in the country) is the better team and I’m taking them plus the points Friday night. Appalachian State just hasn’t been quite as strong in 2020 compared to past seasons. This will be the first time since 2017 that the Mountaineers WON’T be playing for the conference title. They are just 2-7 ATS this year, though that can be pinned on the large pointspreads they face on a weekly basis. The only two SU losses for ASU this season have come against a pair of unbeaten teams, Marshall and Coastal Carolina, both by double digits. While there’s no shame in either loss (both on the road), those were the only two decent teams the Mountaineers have faced to this point. Louisiana also lost to Coastal Carolina, 30-27, with the game decided on a last second field goal. They’ve won five in a row since and while there have been numerous close calls all year long (four wins by 7 pts or less), last week wasn’t one of them as they put up 70 against hideous LA Monroe. Also, the Ragin Cajuns hold a 31-14 win over Iowa State (on the road), which keeps looking better and better as the Cyclones continue their ascent in the Big 12 standings. Louisiana is going to be the more motivated side Friday night. 8* Louisiana | |||||||
12-04-20 | Texas-Arlington +6 v. Tulsa | Top | 64-79 | Loss | -109 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
8* UT Arlington (5:00 ET): UT Arlington is off to a 1-3 start (straight up), but that record doesn’t do justice to how competitive the Mavericks have been in those four games. Rather you should look to the fact they are a perfect 4-0 ATS. They only lost by 7 to Oklahoma State, by 5 at Louisiana Tech and by 12 at Arkansas. The Tulsa team that they are facing Friday is 0-2 SU and ATS and hasn’t done much in the way of scoring. When these teams met in Arlington last season, the Mavericks were 14 pt winners, holding Tulsa to just 59 points. This is a matchup where taking the points makes a lot of sense. Covering as underdogs is nothing new for UT Arlington. After all, they are a remarkable 70-38 ATS the L108 times taking points including 3-0 already this season. The fact they’ve been able to cover all of these games has been a testament to their defense as the Mavericks are shooting below 40% from the field thus far. They were able to hold Arkansas to just SIX points over the final 10 minutes on Wednesday, but it still wasn’t enough. You have to figure they’re going to start shooting better moving forward and I say that happens here. Tulsa’s season has started with losses to TCU and South Carolina, both of which were part of the Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City. Despite only losing by 5 to TCU, the Golden Hurricane never led in the second half. They jumped out to an early 9-0 against sloppy South Carolina, but after that were pretty much dominated and ended up losing by 11. This is the first time Tulsa has been favored and UT Arlington is on a 14-5 ATS run vs. teams with losing records. Tulsa’s three-point shooting has been dreadful and I smell upset here. Take the points. 8* UT ARLINGTON | |||||||
12-03-20 | Niagara +21 v. Syracuse | Top | 45-75 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
8* Niagara (8:00 ET): These two upstate New York teams have combined to play just ONE game thus far and it was Syracuse delivering a thoroughly unimpressive 85-84 win over Bryant. While you’ll always take a win, given the fact the Orange were favored in that game by 22 points, winning 85-84 is not what they had in mind. The fact they made only 40% of their field goal attempts against such a lesser foe is NOT a good sign moving forward and the Orange could be looking ahead to next week’s game vs. Rutgers, who is a Top 25 team. Take the points in this matchup. It would not be a shock to see Niagara keep this game close. After all, last year they lost by only 14 (71-57) here at the Carrier Dome and that was despite shooting just 32.4% from the field, including 6 of 27 from three-point range. You’d expect them to shoot better this time around. The 2019-20 season was not a good one for the Purple Eagles offensively, but they should be better at that end of the floor this season. They return LY’s leading scorer Marcus Hammond, who is one of the top players in the MAAC. The fact that Jim Boeheim’s son (Buddy) is the best player on the team is an insight into the relatively sad state of Syracuse basketball right now. No longer is this program a power on the national level. They are probably looking at a middle of the pack finish in the ACC. While they are likely to win tonight, their struggles in the season opener reiterate this is not a team you want to lay a ton of points with. Failing to cover against Bryant drops the Orange to 1-5 ATS the L6 times they’ve been a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. 8* Niagara | |||||||
12-03-20 | Connecticut v. USC +1.5 | Top | 61-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* USC (7:00 ET): Two unbeaten teams here meeting in the Mohegan Sun Arena for what is a de facto home game for UConn. It seems as if it’s been FOREVER since the Huskies were relevant on the national scene, but they are 2-0 right now and averaging 85.0 points/game. Still, neither win could be considered all that impressive as one was against Central Connecticut State and the other a non-cover vs. Hartford. Tonight is the Huskies’ stiffest test to date as they face a 3-0 USC team. Southern Cal has shot 50% or better in all three of its games thus far and played exceptional defense in the last two. After holding Montana to just 33.3% shooting last Saturday, the Trojans were even stingier vs. BYU, limiting the Cougars to a 27.5 FG% in what was termed an “upset” two nights ago. But you wouldn’t have known USC was a 3.5-point dog by the way they played Tuesday. They won by 26 (79-53) on this same floor. Both Mobley brothers finished with double-doubles and Drew Peterson led the scoring with 19 points. I’ve got USC rated as the better team here. If this were just a “one-off” at the Mohegan Sun, I’d be less inclined to back them, but that’s not the case. After watching the Trojans destroy BYU here two days ago, I’m comfortable in pretty much disregarding any advantage UConn might otherwise have by playing this game within the state border. It’s not as if fans are a factor in 2020. I’ve been very impressed with the USC defense the L2 games while UConn’s scoring average is inflated by one big game against a terrible opponent. UConn had its game (vs. Vanderbilt) scheduled for Tuesday cancelled and will struggle with USC’s size. The Trojans have won six straight going back to the end of last season. 10* USC | |||||||
12-03-20 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas +2 | Top | 42-31 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
10* North Texas (6:00 ET): This has been a College Football season like none other before it and few things embody that assessment more than the fact Louisiana Tech did not play a single game in November! The Bulldogs last played Halloween night when they “treated” backers to a 37-34 upset of UAB (in overtime) as 12.5-point home underdogs. North Texas can certainly empathize with La Tech’s recent plight as the Mean Green also went a full month without playing a game before getting to take the field each of the last two weeks. But they are the team in better “game shape” heading into this one and I’ll follow the money (line move). I should note that my own power ratings actually disagree with the line move here. But I’m disregarding those rankings in this instance as they are obviously unaware of the long layoff for Louisiana Tech. Also, my power rankings have overestimated the Bulldogs before. I made the mistake of taking them in an October home game vs. UTEP, which they won by only 4 points despite being a two touchdown favorite. Louisiana Tech has not outgained a single FBS opponent this season and had dropped four in a row ATS (1-3 SU) before the upset of UAB where they were outgained by 104 yards. The Bulldogs are bottom 20 in the country in total offense, which will be a welcome reprieve for a struggling North Texas defense. Believe it or not, but the Mean Green were considered a “sharp side” going into last Saturday’s tilt w/ UTSA, which they promptly lost 49-17 as 1-pt underdogs. Clearly taking sharp money again this week, they hope for a better result now that they’re back in Denton. Like North Texas, La Tech struggles defensively. The difference is they are going to have to contend with an offense that is top 5 in the country, averaging 536.9 YPG! The home team simply has a massive edge offensively in this one. You would not know that by watching North Texas’ last two games, but the last time I took them they put up 52 points and 768 total yards in a blowout win over Middle Tennessee. They are the right side here as LA Tech should not be favored on the road. 10* North Texas | |||||||
12-02-20 | Oregon State v. Washington State | Top | 55-59 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
8* Oregon State (10:00 ET): The Pac 12 has wasted little time getting conference play underway and here we have Oregon State travelling to Pullman to face Washington State. Both teams are 2-0, however Wazzu is 0-2 ATS as both wins were close. OSU is coming off a 114-point effort last Friday, albeit against a non-DI opponent (Northwest Col). But the Beavers also have already picked up a win over a conference opponent, beating Cal 71-63 in the season opener. Oregon State is hoping to avoid a repeat of what happened LY here in Pullan when they arrived as 3.5-point favorites and lost outright, 89-76. That was a bad shooting night for the Beavers, at least from three-point range where they finished just 2 of 13. That shouldn’t happen again here as the Beavers are deep and one of the most experienced teams in the entire country. Six players are averaging in double figures thus far, led by senior Ethan Thompson, who has started every game in his career. Washington State had to rally past both Texas Southern and Eastern Washington to win by four and three points, respectively. The Cougars shot poorly in the first game, then actually trailed 16-3 early against an Eastern Washington side that was down to just seven scholarship players (COVID). Looking at the injury report here, I see a lot of question marks for Wazzu and that’s not good for a team that simply isn’t very deep. They have the worst record in the Pac 12 over the past two seasons as well. 8* Oregon State | |||||||
12-02-20 | South Dakota State +3.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 71-68 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* South Dakota State (7:00 ET): The better team is getting points here, at least in my opinion. Even if you may not agree with that assessment, there certainly is no denying that the underdog is the more “battle-tested” of the two teams. South Dakota State has already played #11 West Virginia, Utah State & St. Mary’s. The Jackrabbits have emerged from that stretch with a 1-2 SU/2-1 ATS mark. Meanwhile, Iowa State has played only one game (Ark-Pine Bluff) and is without starter Tre Jackson. All three of South Dakota State’s games were a part of the Bad Boy Mowers Classic, which was held in nearby Sioux Falls. They were actually favored to beat St. Mary’s (-3), which shows this team is already respected in the marketplace. That line was probably also based on the fact the Jackrabbits had just clobbered Utah State by 24 points the day prior. Playing their third game in three days, SDSU had an “off-shooting” night vs. SMU (36.2 FG%), which included 2 of 12 from 3-pt range. They even missed 12 of 27 FT attempts. Keep in mind that the Summit League contingent was able to outrebound West Virginia in the season opener! Iowa State will miss Jackson as he was one of the team’s best three-point shooters. Though they ended up winning comfortably (80-63), the Cyclones actually trailed Arkansas Pine Bluff at halftime here in Ames in the season opener. South Dakota State returns the fourth most minutes in the entire country from last season, so this is a veteran team that won’t be intimidated by playing in a Big 12 building. (Home court advantage obviously doesn’t mean much right now anyway). They’ve been off since Friday, giving them plenty of time to recoup after the Bad Boy Mowers Classic. 10* South Dakota State | |||||||
12-01-20 | Michigan State +4.5 v. Duke | Top | 75-69 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
10* Michigan State (7:00 ET): Michigan State has had a curious lack of success against Duke through the years. Their only win in the L10 tries against the Blue Devils came in the Elite Eight of the last NCAA Tournament played (2019), a 68-67 “upset” as 2.5-pt underdogs. Sparty is 0-3 SU all-time vs. Duke when matched up in the Champions Classic, plus they lost outright to them LY in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge 87-75 as 6.5-pt chalk. Things are different this year, however. I’ve got MSU rated as the better team, so this is looking like a good value. Take the points. Michigan State is already 2-0 with wins over Eastern Michigan and Notre Dame. They defeated Eastern Michigan 83-67 as 22.5-pt favorites and then Notre Dame 80-70 as a 9.5-pt favorite. The Spartans shot better against Eastern Michigan, which is to be expected, but also played better defense vs Notre Dame. Joshua Langford is back after missing all of last season and the final 18 games of the year prior, which is a big boost. Also, don’t let that final score vs. ND fool you. Sparty led by as many as 28 in the 2H. After having its first game (vs. Gardner-Webb) cancelled, Duke finally opened its season on Saturday with an 81-71 win over Coppin State. They too opened a sizable lead (17 pts), but were unable to hold on to it. Still, the Blue Devils never even came close to covering the 39-point spread in that one. That was due to a combination of letting Coppin State make 10 three-pointers plus 22 turnovers. Duke is a young team and home court advantage doesn’t matter much in this scenario. MSU is 16-6 ATS after scoring 80+ points and I like them as a dog early in the season. 10* Michigan State | |||||||
11-30-20 | Seahawks v. Eagles +6 | Top | 23-17 | Push | 0 | 37 h 37 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (8:15 ET): I had tremendous success taking home dogs on Sunday and here’s another one where I see a ton of value. Seattle may be regarded as one of the league’s better teams, but they tend to be involved in a lot of close games. So far, seven of their 10 games have been decided by one score. This is a continuation from last season where they went an extremely fortunate 11-3 SU in one-score games. That good fortune has carried over to this year with a 5-2 SU record in those games. Bottom line: the Seahawks may be winning, but they usually win close. Normally, if a team was a 3-6-1, they’d already be thinking about next season. But because the Eagles (who have that record) play in the NFC East, they are very much still alive for a division title and playoff berth. This despite B2B “ugly” losses to the Giants and Browns. But both of those came on the road. Since losing to the Rams 39-17 back in Week 2, the Eagles are 2-1-1 SU here in Philly with the lone loss coming by two points against the Ravens. That loss to the Ravens was the only other time this season where they were a home dog and they covered the spread. Seattle is far from invincible when they hit the road. Their record away from home this season is just 2-3 straight up and against the spread. And let’s not forget just how awful the Seahawks’ pass defense has been. They are allowing 343.7 YPG through the air, most in the league. So I can see Eagles QB Carson Wentz, who has struggled, having his best game in a while here. Even though they are 7-3 SU, Seattle has been outgained by their opponents this season. The Eagles are actually even w/ theirs on a per play basis. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
11-30-20 | Texas -7 v. Davidson | Top | 78-76 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
8* Texas (12:30 ET): Both of these teams started the season with a win. However, Texas was clearly more impressive than Davidson. The Longhorns clobbered a clearly overmatched Texas Rio Grande Valley 91-57, easily covering the 21-point spread. Davidson won comfortably against High Point, 82-73, but didn’t come close to covering the 19-point spread. For both teams, it boiled down to defense. Texas held UTRGV to 26.1% shooting. Davidson let High Point shoot a far more respectable 46.6% overall. That impressive showing by the Longhorns in the season opener was a continuation of what we saw from this team last year in non-conference play. They gave up only 61.5 PPG in non-conference play in 2019-20, going 10-3 SU in those games. Meanwhile, Davidson was just 6-6 SU in non-conference play a year ago. This is a big step up in class for the Wildcats facing the #22 ranked team in the country. I’ve got Texas very high in my own power ratings and expect this to be a blowout win Monday. This game is part of the “Maui Invitational,” which is actually being held in Asheville, NC. Despite the in-state advantage for Davidson, I still feel this should be a double-digit spread. Texas shot 57% from the floor in the opener. While it probably won’t be that easy on Monday, Davidson did just allow High Point to make 11 three-pointers and shoot 40% from behind the arc. The Longhorns did struggle on the offensive end last year, so their shooting in the opening game was certainly a welcome sight. I think it carries over here. Lay the points. 8* Texas | |||||||
11-29-20 | Chiefs v. Bucs +3.5 | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (4:25 ET): The Bucs suffered another primetime loss on Monday, this one against the Rams 27-24. Primetime has accounted for three of the team’s four losses this season and they are 0-4 ATS in such games, the lone win being a nail-biter over the 3-7 Giants. So Tom Brady and company have to be pretty happy to be playing in the 4 PM (ET) window this week, even if the opponent is Kansas City. When NOT playing in primetime this year, Brady is 6-1 SU with the only loss coming back in Week 1 (at New Orleans). This will also be just the third time this season that Tampa Bay is an underdog. The first was that Week 1 loss in New Orleans. The other was an outright win against Green Bay here at home. Brady is 10-1 ATS with nine outright wins as a home dog in his illustrious career. That earlier win against the Packers marked just the 4th time in the last 15 seasons that Brady has been a home dog. He’s won outright all four times. Brady is also 15-8 ATS coming off a Monday night game. I think this is a great value as my power rankings still say TB should be a slight favorite here. Kansas City brings in a vaunted reputation as the defending Super Bowl champs. They are 9-1 SU this season and just avenged their only defeat by beating the Raiders last Sunday night. But they needed a last minute TD to get the win in Vegas and it was the second straight win by four points or less. The defense allowed 31 points to both the Panthers and Raiders. They’ve been particularly susceptible against the pass. The Bucs’ defense, which is outstanding against the run (#1 in the league), can make the Chiefs’ offense one-dimensional. Take the points. 10* Tampa Bay | |||||||
11-29-20 | Raiders v. Falcons +3 | Top | 6-43 | Win | 103 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (1:00 ET): After playing well in front of a national television audience, the Raiders were the recipients of some “early money” this week, getting bet up to the current price. We had ‘em last Sunday night when they covered against the Chiefs and almost took the game outright. But they lost, 35-31, and what’s interesting here is that this is just the third time all season Las Vegas has been favored! Atlanta has been a giant disappointment in 2020 (already fired their HC), but I don’t think they should be a dog here. The Falcons were off their bye last week and facing a QB making his first career start (Taysom Hill). But you can’t discount just how good the Saints are playing right now. Atlanta ended up losing 24-9, dropping them to 3-7 SU on the year. What was so disappointing about LW’s loss is that the Falcons had been playing better before the bye. They’d won three of four games with the only loss coming by 1 point. Looking at the remaining schedule, which is just brutal, this is probably the Falcons’ best shot at picking up another win for interim HC Raheem Morris. I firmly believe that bettors have overreacted to Las Vegas; close call vs. Kansas City last week. Remember that game was at home. That the Raiders have been favored only twice so far is a clear indication that they have overachieved. Factoring in the fact this game is in Atlanta, I’ve got it rated as a toss-up. The Falcons haven’t been a home dog this season. Matt Ryan, who was sacked eight times by the Saints, should have a much better game this week against the #28 rated pass defense. Also, Las Vegas has the 2nd fewest sacks in the league with 11. The Falcons are better than their record while the Raiders (who have been outgained by their opponents) aren’t as good as theirs. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
11-29-20 | Giants v. Bengals +6.5 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): Ok, so the Bengals’ season appears pretty much done. They are 2-7-1 SU and now have to go the rest of the way without starting QB Joe Burrow. They lost the #1 overall draft pick for the remainder of the season last week in Washington. Shell-shocked, they were shutout in the second half and lost 24-9. It should be pointed out that they were winning going into the break. This line has seen the most movement of any on the board this week as Cincinnnati was to be a short home favorite. With Burrow out and backup Brandon Allen to start in his place, the Giants are now a significant road favorite. The Giants should never be a road favorite of this size. Against anybody. I don’t care if Burrow is out; I don’t think he’s worth this much to the pointspread. While New York has been a covering machine on the road as of late (8-0 ATS L8), they haven’t been a road favorite of more than four points in almost four years. This is the 1st time since 2012 that a team with a win percentage of .333 or worse is a road favorite of more than a field goal. Since 1990, such teams are just 3-7 STRAIGHT UP! As a reminder, the Giants’ SU record is 3-7 with two of those wins coming by a combined four points against Washington. With Burrow, the Bengals were pretty good at keeping games close. Four of their seven losses have come by five points or less. Two of the exceptions came against the Steelers and Ravens. The other was last week, but the good news is that Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS off a loss this year. Allen at least has starting experience in this league and is probably an upgrade over the team’s other backup, Ryan Finley. The Giants have zero wins outside the division this year. They are the ONLY team in the league w/o a 3-game win streak the L4 seasons. Take the points. 8* Cincinnati | |||||||
11-29-20 | Browns v. Jaguars +7.5 | Top | 27-25 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): So this probably could go one of two ways for the Jaguars. Either they pull an outright upset, or they get blown out. At 1-9 SU (that one win came in Wk 1), the Jags are turning to Mike Glennon at QB this week. It will be Glennon’s first NFL start in more than three years. It’s not an ideal spot to return to the starting role as the Jags will be missing numerous players - on both sides of the ball - due to COVID. But make no mistake about it, this play is a clear fade on Cleveland, who also has COVID issues. The Browns are a surprising 7-3 SU this year, but they’ve taken advantage of a very weak schedule. Even more damning is the fact they have a -23 point differential. That’s worse than the 3-7 Chargers, who have a -13 point differential. Cleveland has also been fortunate to go 4-0 SU in one-score games this season. Two of those wins have come the L2 weeks, 10-7 over Houston and 22-17 against Philadelphia. The offense has scored 22 points or less in 4 of the last 5 games, scoring 10 or less three times! This will also be the Browns’ first time playing on the road in November! Their last three games were all at home. If they close at -7, it will mark the first time they’ve been favored by that many on the road since Bill Belichick was roaming the sidelines in 1995! Baker Mayfield, who I believe to be a below-average NFL QB, is just 7-11-2 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. That includes 1-5 on the road with four outright losses. By the way, the Browns are just 1-4 ATS their L5 games overall. They will be without five players, one of them Myles Garrett, and haven’t been able to practice together much this week. Hold your nose and take the points. 8* Jacksonville | |||||||
11-29-20 | Chargers +4.5 v. Bills | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
8* LA Chargers (1:00 ET): As I’ve harped on many times before, how a team performs in close games will largely dictate how the overall season goes. For further evidence of that, let’s look at the Chargers and Bills in 2020. Los Angeles has only been outscored by 13 points, but is 3-7 SU due to the fact they’ve lost 7 of 9 one-possession games. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 7-3 SU despite only a +7 point differential because they are 5-1 in one score games. The Chargers are better than their record while the reverse is true for the Bills. This is similar to the Raiders-Falcons game, so once again we’re taking the points. The Chargers are actually off a close WIN, though there was no reason for that game to be close. They held on to beat the winless Jets 34-28 after opening up a 31-13 lead in the second half. Holding leads has been a problem all season for the Lightning Bolts as they’ve lost four games in which they held a DD lead. That’s not good. But leading the likes of Kansas City, New Orleans and Tampa Bay by double digits shows this team has got talent. Rookie QB Justin Herbert has played great. The fact the team is a dog this week is appealing in that we’re “safe” were they to lose close again. But I expect them to win this week. Buffalo suffered its lone close loss of the season two weeks ago when Arizona completed a Hail Mary. They had a week off (bye) to reflect on letting that one get away. Bottom line though is that they were outgained by the Cardinals and gave up 453 yards. The Bills defense has taken a step back this season as it is giving up 6.1 yards per play. The Chargers rank 3rd (in the league!) in total offense. So far, Buffalo is just 2-2 SU when facing top five offenses. The Chargers are 9-4-2 ATS as a road underdog under HC Anthony Lynn and 46-21-5 ATS in the role since 2004. Herbert is 3-0 ATS as a dog of five or more points. This “smells” like an upset. 8* LA Chargers | |||||||
11-28-20 | Nevada v. Hawaii +7.5 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
8* Hawaii (11:00 ET): There are only eight teams in College Football currently 5-0 (straight up) or better. One of them is Nevada. Hats off to the Wolf Pack for this start and they are one of three Mountain West teams without a loss. But they really haven’t played anybody. Three of their five wins - UNLV, Utah State and New Mexico - are over teams in the bottom 10 of my personal power rankings (MWC has some BAD teams). They are also 3-0 in games decided by 7 points or less. This week is going to be their toughest test to date. Hawaii is just 2-3 SU thus far as they are coming off a home loss last week to Boise State. They did cover the 13-point spread against the Broncos, but the game wasn’t really as close as the final score indicated. The Warriors trailed 33-9 in the third quarter, only to then get things going with the game out of reach. Still, that was just their second game on the island in 2020. Typically, Hawaii has a pretty strong home field edge (13-6 SU L19 home games) and Nevada certainly isn’t as strong as Boise State. Nevada is just 6-13 ATS its L19 games when laying 3.5 to 7 points on the road. That includes eight outright losses. I think an outright upset is definitely ‘in play’ Saturday night considering the fact Hawaii won 54-3 in Reno last year! Thus far, the Hawaii offense has been a lot more potent at home than on the road. The defense leads the conference in interceptions. Nevada’s defense has had a really high success rate on third down, which very well may not continue. Take the points here. 8* Hawaii | |||||||
11-28-20 | Memphis v. Navy +13.5 | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
10* Navy (7:00 ET): This has been a down year so far in Annapolis. Some of that was to be expected after the Midshipmen jumped back up to a 11-2 SU record last season (from 3-11 SU in 2018). Let’s also be honest in saying that COVID-19 has affected their “ranks” more than most teams. There were two horrible, early season losses to BYU (55-3) and Air Force (40-7). But other than those, they’ve played pretty well. They’re 3-2 SU otherwise. This will be their first game in four weeks due to the pandemic as they are off three straight cancellations. One of those three is being made up here w/ a Sat night visit from Memphis. Memphis has also been affected by cancellations in a season where they too were expected to regress. The Tigers are 5-2 SU, which is still good, but consider this was a 12-2 team a season ago that won the American Conference. Their two losses, both on the road, were against SMU and Cincinnati. Since losing 49-10 at unbeaten Cincinnati, Memphis has escaped with a one-point victory over a bad USF team and beaten FCS Stephen F Austin 56-14. They were supposed to face Navy in between those two opponents, but again COVID-19 struck. The offense has been great so far, but you can’t say the same about the defense. Year in and year out, Navy usually has one of the nation’s premier rushing attacks. This year has been a little different as the triple-option wasn’t that effective early in the season. However, over the past four games the Middies have run for 251, 288, 166 and 191 yards. Memphis does not have a good run defense, even though the overall numbers say it isn’t that bad. But those numbers, specifically the rush defense, are skewed by LW’s game vs. a FCS team. UCF and Cincinnati were able to average 220+ RYPG. The Tigers have not won a road game all season and are just 2-8 ATS L10 games. Navy is 12-4 ATS its L16 conference games. Take the points. 10* Navy | |||||||
11-28-20 | Penn State +1 v. Michigan | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
8* Penn State (12:00 ET): Penn State and Michigan are a combined 1-9 ATS this season. Even more surprising is they are a combined 2-8 straight up! Both SU wins belong to Michigan, one of those coming last week in triple overtime against Rutgers. So this game has nowhere near the anticipation it normally does. Penn State is 0-5 SU and ATS, which is the worst start in program history (134 years and counting). As shocking as that is, the Nittany Lions are actually outgaining opponents on the season, which is something Michigan cannot claim. I remain less sold on the Wolverines despite them winning last week. Were it not for turnovers, we’d probably be talking about Penn State in a much different light. They outgained three of their first four opponents (Ohio State the exception), two of them by 200+ yards! They were only slightly outgained (19 yards) by Iowa last week in a 41-21 defeat, which was the second game in three weeks the Nittany Lions were -3 in turnover differential. I think it’s fair to say this is among the unluckiest teams in all of College Football. They should have at least a couple wins under their belt. The big story with Michigan is that they believe they’ve finally found their starting QB. It’s too little, too late to mean anything for 2020, but last week saw Cade McNamara come on in relief for the ineffective Joe Milton and lead the comeback win against Rutgers. But it’s a pretty sorry state of affairs in Ann Arbor when the faithful are celebrating a 3OT win over a team (Rutgers) that’s 1-25 SU its last 26 Big 10 games. The Wolverines were down double digits in the first half last week. Their secondary is just awful as three of the last four opponents have thrown for 323+ yards. 8* Penn State | |||||||
11-27-20 | Oregon v. Oregon State +13.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 51 m | Show |
10* Oregon State (7:30 ET): #15 Oregon heads to Corvallis with an undefeated record, but they were lucky to get by with a 38-35 win over UCLA last weekend. The Ducks got outgained but were the beneficiaries of four Bruins’ turnovers. Their defense definitely proved susceptible to run as it allowed 267 yards on the ground. They are giving up 5.2 yards per carry for the season. In case you didn’t know, Oregon State has one of the top RB’s in the Pac 12, if not the entire country, in Jermar Jefferson. Take the points here. Jefferson had 196 yards on just 18 carries in last week’s 31-27 win over Cal. That was the Beavers’ first win of the season, but they did cover the 13-point spread the week prior at Washington, losing only 27-21. Jefferson has gone over 100 yards in all three games so far and facing an Oregon defense that is giving up 188 rush yards per game, he should make it 4 for 4 this week. The Ducks have also surrendered a total of 64 points the last two weeks. OSU is 10-3 ATS as an underdog since the start of last season (2-0 this year). They’ve won outright five times as a dog the last two seasons and they are also 9-3 ATS L12 Pac 12 games, which is second only to Utah in that same stretch. It’s also the 4th best ATS conference record in the country. Oregon is really going to struggle to stop Jefferson and the Oregon State offense here and thus it’s difficult to see them covering a double digit spread on the road. With this being a rivalry game, it’s not like the home team is going to be lacking for motivation. 10* Oregon State | |||||||
11-27-20 | Arkansas-Little Rock v. NC-Greensboro -2.5 | Top | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
10* UNC Greensboro (7:00 ET): Little Rock and UNC Greensboro were both good teams last year. Little Rock went 21-10 SU and were regular season champs in the Sun Belt. (Conference Tournament was never played). UNC Greensboro won 23 games in 2019-20, finishing third in the always tough SoCon. The Spartans would not have made the NCAA Tournament though as they were upset in the 1st round of the conference tournament by Chattanooga. Arkansas Little Rock has already played a game this season while UNC Greensboro has not. Little Rock’s first game here in Louisville was far too close for comfort if you’re a Trojans fan as they could only beat a bad Prairie View A&M team 71-66 despite being 14-point favorites. Had they not enjoyed a massive edge at the free throw line (+25 in attempts, +19 in makes), they very well could have lost the game outright. The Trojans trailed at the half and let Prairie View A&M shoot nearly 50% for the game. That’s not a good sign when getting set to face a much superior team tonight. UNC Greensboro actually failed to cover the spread in its final five games last year. That has the Spartans undervalued coming into this 2020-21 season. This was a good defensive team last season as it held opposing teams to just 63.1 PPG. They return 11 players and have won 103 games the last four years (20+ wins every season). "I think this may be the deepest team I've ever coached," said HC Wes Miller. This looks like one of the better mid-majors in the country, so lay the short number. 10* UNC Greensboro | |||||||
11-27-20 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +6 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (3:30 ET): This boils down to the simple fact that North Carolina scores too many points to be catching this many at home. Two weeks ago, the Tar Heels hung 59 points and almost 750 total yards in a wild, come from behind win against underrated Wake Forest. You may recall I successfully faded UNC in that one, but I almost learned the “hard way” at just how explosive the offense is here in Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels scored touchdowns on five consecutive drives across the 3rd/4th quarters and almost covered. The Heels are averaging 43.1 PPG for the season and have gone over 55 in each of the last two games. They have more pass plays of 40+ yards (12) than every other ACC team. They also lead the conference in yards per play (7.7). While they’ve stumbled twice as favorites this season (to Florida State and Virginia), both of those losses were by just three points. This game will mark the first time in 2020 that Mack Brown’s team is an underdog and it comes at home where they are undefeated and averaging 48.5 PPG. Notre Dame’s defense has been super thus far as it leads the ACC in scoring. But they’ve yet to face an offense like North Carolina’s. Remember that they played Clemson w/o Trevor Lawrence and still gave up 40 points and almost 500 total yards. Other than that, it’s been Duke, USF, Florida State, Louisville, Pitt, Ga Tech and Boston College. North Carolina isn’t just 2-0 ATS as a home dog since HC Mack Brown returned, they are also 3-0 ATS vs. ranked teams. The Fighting Irish have lost outright four of the last five times they’ve been road chalk of six points or less. Take the points. 8* North Carolina | |||||||
11-27-20 | Nebraska +14 v. Iowa | Top | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 15 h 10 m | Show |
8* Nebraska (1:00 ET): It’s certainly been an interesting season thus far in Lincoln where Nebraska lost LW to Illinois by a score of 41-23. They were 17-pt favorites in that game. The week prior saw them beat Penn State despite buying outgained by over 200 yards. The week before that they outgained Northwestern (who is still unbeaten), but lost by eight points as SEVEN trips to the red zone yielded only 13 points! Scott Frost is very much on the “hot seat” right now and cannot afford another loss to Iowa. Maybe he does lose again here, but I’m banking on the Cornhuskers covering the spread. Take the points. Iowa is back in the Top 25 (currently #24) thanks to a three-game SU/ATS win streak where they’ve averaged 41.7 PPG. But they weren’t really as dominant as you might think in last week’s 41-21 win at Penn State. It was only a 362-343 edge in total yardage. The Hawkeyes not only lost to the same N’western team that got Nebraska earlier in the year, but they also fell here in Iowa City to Purdue. No Iowa team has covered four straight regular season games since the 2004 version. This is a lot of points to be laying in a rivalry game. Turnovers were a big key for both teams last week. Iowa scored 24 points off four Penn State TO’s while Nebraska coughed it up five times in its loss. Frost is being coy about his QB situation, but that works to our benefit as Iowa can’t be sure about what signal caller to prepare for. Nebraska has lost five straight years to Iowa, but the last two under Frost have both been three point games. I think we’re getting an inflated number here due to the respective results from last week. 8* Nebraska | |||||||
11-27-20 | UMass +38 v. Liberty | Top | 0-45 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
8* Massachusetts (12:00 ET): UMass could very well be the worst team in all of College Football, but this is just a terrible spot for Liberty to be laying such an extraordinary amount of points. The Flames had their undefeated season extinguished last Saturday at NC State in a gut-wrenching 15-14 loss. QB Malik Willis threw three picks and was 13 of 32 passing. But though they lost straight up, Liberty did keep alive its ATS win streak (now at 6 games) as they were four-point underdogs. That 6-0 ATS run is probably why this number is still so high, but I’m taking the points. Full disclosure - I’m not going to sell you that UMass is somehow “good.” They’re not. But the Minutemen should have enough pride to stay within the number. Having scored just 12 points through three games is not encouraging. But last week they were up against a very good Florida Atlantic defense. The week before they were facing undefeated Marshall. As ugly as the three losses have been this season, the Minutemen are now 6-2 ATS L8 times taking 31+ points. Having the bubble “burst” on their unbeaten season puts Liberty in a huge letdown spot this week. Furthermore, they face undefeated Coastal Carolina next week, so the ‘look ahead’ factor is in play as well. This is almost certainly the highest spread in Liberty football history. The Flames have just two wins by more than 21 points this year (one vs. FCS) and three by six points or less. One of those three close victories was against a terrible FIU team. I think UMass can hit double digits this week. 8* Massachusetts | |||||||
11-26-20 | New Mexico v. Utah State +6.5 | Top | 27-41 | Win | 100 | 59 h 40 m | Show |
10* Utah State (7:00 ET): OK, this is crazy. New Mexico, who has lost 13 straight games dating back to last year, is FAVORED on the ROAD even though Utah State is off its bye. Now Utah State obviously isn’t very good either. The Aggies are 0-4 SU/ATS thus far and haven’t stayed within 19 points of anybody. But I would argue that they’ve faced the four top teams in the Mountain West. If they are to avoid a winless season, this is their best shot. The same can be said of New Mexico, but there’s just no way the Lobos should be favored by this many against anybody right now. New Mexico, also 0-4 SU, has come relatively close to victory twice this season. They lost 39-33 out in Hawaii, covering as 13-pt dogs. Then they only lost by 7 (27-20) to Nevada as 17-pt home underdogs. Both games saw the Lobos grab the early lead only to ultimately fall short. But then there was major regression last week in a 28-0 loss to Air Force. In one of the most stunning sequences in the history of football, Air Force fumbled on three consecutive possessions. Every time New Mexico got the ball (in AFA territory), they’d go on to miss a field goal. Remember that the Lobos aren’t playing home games this year due to COVID-19. This will essentially be their 5th road game in 5 weeks. As for Utah State, they got an unexpected bye last week when their game vs. Wyoming got called off. Extra prep time is not something any team should need when facing this New Mexico defense, but the Aggies will take it. After giving up 340+ yards passing each of the first three games, the Lobos then surrendered 356 on the ground to Air Force last week. This will mark the 2nd week in a row I fade New Mexico (had Air Force) as it appears bettors are being lulled into thinking the Lobos are going to get that elusive win. But I must reiterate that when a team has not won in 14 months, they probably should not be favored -- on the road no less. Lots of turmoil at Utah State (coaching change, QB dismissal), but New Mexico is still 1-21 SU in its L22 games vs. FBS opponents! 10* Utah State | |||||||
11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -124 | 70 h 37 m | Show |
10* Dallas (4:30 ET): So the Cowboys came through in a major way on Sunday, winning outright at Minnesota, 31-28. In taking them plus the 7.5 points, I specifically cited the return of QB Andy Dalton as a reason for optimism. Dalton was pretty good as he threw three touchdowns including the game winner with 1:37 left. Now I’m wondering if these ‘Boys might actually have a shot at winning the NFC East. Everybody in this horrible division has just three victories, so all that’s happened to this point is irrelevant. “How ‘bout them Cowboys?” Of course, this game is equally important to Washington as they could end up being in first place by week’s end. They too are off a win, 20-9 over Cincinnati, and just like Dallas it was just their second in nine games. But when looking at the Football Team’s recent performances, some perspective needs to be added. While it was a close loss (30-27) at Detroit two weeks ago, they were actually down in that game 24-3. It was a similar story in a 20-19 loss to the Giants the week prior. There, they were down 20-3 at halftime. Then Sunday vs. the Bengals they were down at the half again (9-7), only to catch a HUGE break when Cincy QB Joe Burrow went down with a season-ending knee injury. The Bengals didn’t score again after Burrow left the game. Now this is a rematch from last month when Washington won 25-3 at home. Again though, some perspective needs to be provided. Dalton got hurt in that game and his replacement Ben DiNucci just wasn’t ready for “primetime.” I think it’s also interesting that the line for that game was a “pick ‘em.” Obviously, based on the final score, oddsmakers were going to adjust the number for this game. But I believe Dallas still needs to be a much bigger favorite. Washington is starting Alex Smith and has trailed by double digits in 8 of its 10 games this season! It’s amazing to say, but I think the Cowboys are underrated right now. 10* Dallas | |||||||
11-26-20 | Texans v. Lions +3 | Top | 41-25 | Loss | -115 | 66 h 32 m | Show |
8* Detroit (12:30 ET): On Sunday, the Lions failed in their attempt to win back to back games for a second time this season. They were shutout, 20-0, by a Carolina defense that had just given up 46 points and 500+ yards the previous week. Oh yeah, the Panthers were also forced to start PJ Walker at QB, a “refugee” from the XFL! As embarrassing as that loss reads, I like Detroit’s chances of bouncing back on Thanksgiving. Relative to the lookahead line, this is a good value getting them as a home dog. Meanwhile, Houston is off a win, their first of the season against a team other than Jacksonville. They came from behind to beat New England 27-20 as 2.5-pt home dogs. What’s interesting here is that from a pointspread perspective, the Texans are now in the exact opposite role from last week when they saw the early money go in the Patriots’ direction. That set them up to be a solid value as a home dog. Now they are road favorites for just the second time in 2020. The first was at Jacksonville and there they failed to cover the spread, winning only 27-25 after holding off a late 2-point try. Prior to covering each of the L2 wks, the Texans were just 1-7 ATS this season. My own power rankings indicate that the Lions should still be favored here, despite what happened last week. They aren’t nearly as bad as they played last week. One bright spot was the defense, which held Carolina to just 7 pts in the 1st half and 17 total before a 3-yard drive resulted in a late FG. Matt Stafford and the offense are likely to turn things around this week against a Texans defense that is 31st (2nd to last) in yards allowed. The Lions have lost three games this season in which they held a double digit lead, so their record could be significantly better than it is. Houston was still outgained by New England last week and is just 7-14-2 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons. Take the points. 8* Detroit |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |