Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-13-22 | Colorado v. Arizona -15 | Top | 55-76 | Win | 100 | 16 h 45 m | Show |
10* Arizona (11:00 ET): There are two other Pac 12 teams (#3 UCLA, #5 USC) ranked higher in the polls than #6 Arizona coming into tonight. But I believe the Wildcats are the best team in this conference. Assuming they handle their business the rest of this week, they will pass USC, who just suffered its first loss of the season. Tonight, ‘Zona faces a Colorado team that’s won five straight, but really isn’t a threat. The game is in Tucson where the Wildcats are a perfect 8-0 this season, winning by an average margin of nearly 35 points per game! Now Arizona has failed to cover each of its last four games. But three of those saw them favored by more than 24 points. Those three games saw them win by double digits each time, every win coming by 16 pts or greater. Mixed in was a four-point loss to a good Tennessee team (#22) on the road, their only defeat all season. So far the Wildcats have played two conference games and they defeated Oregon State by 25 and Washington by 16. This is one of just eight teams in the country to rank in the top 20 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Not only do they lead the country in scoring at 89.9 PPG, but they play VERY fast (third in adjusted tempo). There’s a pretty sizable gap between the top three and everyone else in the Pac 12. Colorado is about to find out that Arizona isn’t just one of the best in the conference, but in the entire country. The Buffaloes prefer to slow the game down, but for the reasons listed above, it’s going to be difficult to play that kind of game here. CU is 0-9 SU in Tucson since joining the Pac 12 a decade ago. While the Buffs may be on a five-game win streak, all those victories came in Boulder. Alarming is how they’ve shot just 22% from three-point range away from home this season. Their only “true” road game came at UCLA and they lost there by 12. This one promises to be even uglier. Lay the points. 10* Arizona | |||||||
01-13-22 | Blazers v. Nuggets -8 | Top | 108-140 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:05 ET): Portland is in a very bad spot here. They are now without both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum for an indefinite period of time. The starting backcourt is really the “heart and soul” of this team and truthfully the Blazers haven’t even been that strong this year when one or both plays. They have a 16-24 SU record, including 2-13 away from home where they are being beaten by an average of 12.2 PPG! The underdog role has not suited them well as their ATS record when getting points is just 5-14. I know they were able to stun Brooklyn the other night, but that was at home. For the record, Lillard is undergoing abdominal surgery and will be re-evaluated in 6-8 weeks time. McCollum has missed the previous 16 games due to a lung injury and paternity leave. Denver isn’t about to take it easy on the undermanned Blazers. Not after blowing a 25-point lead and losing 87-85 to the Clippers on Tuesday. Coach Michael Malone ripped his team after it was outscored 32-19 in the final quarter by LA. So the Nuggets should be motivated from the “get-go” here. Earlier in the year, they hosted Portland and won 124-95 as a 6.5-point favorite. Considering all the absences for the Blazers tonight, I’m really surprised the home team isn’t favored by more. It’s not just Lillard and McCollum that are out for Portland. They were without Norman Powell and Larry Nance Jr on Tuesday, making the win over the Nets all the more shocking. Neither of those two are expected to play tonight either. Nor is Cody Zeller or Anfernee Simmons. Playing with a “skeleton crew” couldn’t come at a worse time as the team is about to embark on a six-game road trip. Denver is top five in the league in PPG allowed at home. This should get ugly in a hurry, so lay the points. 10* Denver | |||||||
01-13-22 | Wolves +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 108-116 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): My only losing bet in the last three days came with the Timberwolves. It was on Tuesday and they were laying a short number, on the road, against New Orleans. The T’wolves were coming off their highest scoring game of the season, a 141-123 win in Houston, and had won four straight overall. It seemed like a prudent play. Unfortunately, by their own admission, the team came in overconfident and lost 128-125 with the game decided on a Brandon Ingram three-pointer with just 1.3 seconds remaining. "We acted like we were just going to walk in, get a win, and it's going to be sweet," Karl-Anthony Towns said. "I don't know if we thought, like, we're the Warriors all of a sudden. It’s not the Warriors that the T’wolves will be facing here, but it’s arguably the hottest team in the NBA as Memphis has won 10 straight and 20 of its last 24 games. This is a step up in class for Minnesota after the last three road games were all against bottom tier Western Conference teams. But the good news is that Minny has beaten Memphis this year and did so in emphatic fashion, 138-95, back on November 20th. While that was a home game, take note that the T’wolves also took the Grizzlies to overtime earlier in the year here in Memphis. While it’s a little risky to fade a team as hot as the Grizzlies are right now, I believe it’s an opportune time to “sell high” on them. They just beat the Warriors on Tuesday, and the Lakers before that, so a “lesser” team like the T’wolves may not command their full attention. Also, while Memphis is 9-1 ATS during the 10-game SU win streak, they’ve been underdogs in half the games. Only once, against Detroit, have they been favored by more than 5.5 at the betting window. Minnesota is #6 in the conference in point differential and net efficiency. With their starting five healthy, they are 9-3 SU this season. Take the points. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
01-12-22 | Nets +2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 138-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
01-12-22 | Magic +7.5 v. Wizards | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
10* Orlando (7:10 ET): The Magic are obviously not a great team. They’re not even a good team. They have their worst 41-game record in franchise history (7-34 SU) and have lost a season-high nine in a row. HOWEVER, they have been playing better recently and don’t have players currently in health & safety protocols. The Magic probably should have picked up a win (or two) in the L5 games, a stretch which has seen them lose four times by four points or less. They’ve led or been tied going into the 4Q in all but one of those five games as well. One of the close losses came Sunday at home to Washington, who the Magic have an immediate rematch with tonight. The Wizards had to play a game in between, which they won last night, 122-118 over Oklahoma City. The Wizards have thrived in close games this season, going 8-2 SU in those decided by three points or less. That’s how they’ve maintained a better than .500 record despite having the third worst point differential in the Eastern Conference. I think they’re due to tumble. While Orlando is relatively healthy, Washington saw leading scorer Bradley Beal have to re-enter health and safety protocol last night. The Wizards lost two of three games the last time Beal was in protocol. With this being the second night of a back to back, it’s a tough spot, and I cannot see the team matching its 54% shooting from last night nor can I see Kuzma or Dinwiddie matching their respective individual performances vs. the Thunder. Orlando is due for a win while Washington, whose L3 wins have been by a TOTAL of seven points, is due for a loss. Take the points. 10* Orlando | |||||||
01-12-22 | Minnesota +12.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 69-71 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (7:00 ET): Michigan State comes into this game ranked #10 in the country, which seems too high. My power rankings obviously still consider Sparty to be a Top 25 team, but Top 10 seems a “bit rich.” I was set to fade them on Saturday when they were scheduled to hit the road to face unranked Michigan, who was a slight favorite to win. But that game had to be postponed due to COVID. Might that interruption have an adverse effect on the Spartans tonight? I wouldn’t be surprised if it did. This is also a revenge game for underdog Minnesota, who was 7-0 SU back when they hosted MSU in the Big 10 opener back on 12/8. The Golden Gophers ended up losing that game 75-67, on what was a poor shooting night for them (just 26.1% from three), and falling into a 13-point halftime hole was the key. Even though they’re now on the road, and off back to back losses, look for a better start from the Gophers tonight. This is a critical game for them as they are off to a 1-3 start in Big 10 play. Back to the cancellation from Saturday, Michigan State is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times it has played with five or six days rest. This is a lot of points to lay in a conference game, especially considering the Spartans’ issues turning the ball over. They did not cover a similar spread vs. Nebraska last week. While 13-2 SU looks nice, MSU hasn’t exactly played a “murderers row” in the Big 10 thus far. Minnesota has had to face Illinois and Indiana and shot just 20% from three-point range in those two losses. Expect more shots to fall for them tonight and they’ll stay within the number as a result. Take the points. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
01-12-22 | Samford v. Wofford -10 | Top | 64-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* Wofford (7:00 ET): For those that even bother to dig “this deep” into the College Basketball card, there may be some sense of surprise that a 9-7 team is favored by so many points against an 11-4 team. But, with this number, oddsmakers are basically telling you what they think of Wofford and Samford and I agree that the disparity is wide. Wofford will be going for their ninth straight head to head win in this SoCon rivalry. The previous eight have been by an average of 10 points, which is what the line is currently (as of this writing). Safe to say that Samford won’t be able to match the performance they turned in for the last game. Facing one of the weaker teams in the league (Western Carolina), the Bulldogs shot 50% from the field while allowing just 33.9% en route to an 85-60 blowout. It was their largest MOV all season, even more than the two times they faced a non-DI foe. BUT, this is a team that has an incredible FIVE wins by two points or less. Two of those were against “power conference” teams (Ole Miss, Oregon St), but I believe tonight’s game will more closely resemble the Bulldogs’ recent trip to Furman, where they lost by 32 points. Wofford probably feels like they “let one get away” as on Monday they lost 58-54 to UNC Greensboro. The Terriers had a 10-point halftime lead (on the road) after holding UNCG to just 18 points! But the 2H was completely different as they were outscored 40-24. It was a game Wofford led most of the way. They are now just 1-3 SU in conference play (despite being favored all four times), so look for tonight to be a “statement” game of sorts. At home, the Terriers are averaging 81.7 PPG, but perhaps more telling is that they shoot 51.0% from the field. Samford is shooting just 40.7% on the road. Lay the points. 10* Wofford | |||||||
01-11-22 | Wolves -5 v. Pelicans | Top | 125-128 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (8:10 ET): The Timberwolves are on a four-game win streak here and coming off two of their highest scoring games of the entire season. After walloping OKC 135-105 last Friday, it was time to establish a new season-high in points on Sunday with a 141-123 beatdown at Houston. You may be thinking that this sounds like an apt time to “sell high” on the T’wolves, but think again. When this team has its starting five intact, they have been very impressive. They are 18-10 SU when just Towns and Russell are available. When the full starting five plays, their record is 9-2 (Beverley could return here). The T’wolves’ travels next take them to New Orleans as they continue the face the worst the Western Conference has to offer. This is the fourth straight game for them against the bottom three in the West as they got to face OKC twice before blowing out Houston on Sunday. Given the recent offensive numbers, it shouldn’t be a problem covering this short number tonight as the Pelicans haven’t had many answers for anyone of late. The Pelicans only win in the L5 games came against Golden State, who was extremely short-handed (no Curry, Green or Thompson) at the time. Minnesota now has the sixth best point differential in the West, so they seem to be legit. Having only made the playoffs once since 2004, this is a team that should be giving it “their all,” night in and night out. Surprisingly, the T’wolves are top 10 in the league in defensive efficiency and as I said prior to the last game (had the Over vs. Houston), their YTD FG% of 43.7 is due to improve dramatically with Towns and Russell back. I don’t see New Orleans being able to slow them down. The T’wolves have already taken two of the previous three meetings this season despite never shooting better than 40.6% from the field. They’ll shoot much better tonight. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
01-11-22 | Northeastern v. James Madison -3.5 | Top | 66-89 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* James Madison (7:00 ET): This is going to be the first time in at least six years that JMU is favored to beat Northeastern. The Dukes did take the last meeting, 79-72 back on January 24th of last year, but did so as 5.5-point dogs. Consider them being favored here as a “changing of the guard” in this rivalry, not to mention a “sign o’ the times” as N’eastern has lost four in a row to fall to 6-8 SU on the year while JMU, despite also being off a loss, is 9-3 SU. I’m laying the short number here. For both teams, this will be the second game in three days. As I already mentioned, N’eastern has lost four in a row. The last two defeats have been by a total of four points. They fell 70-67 at Towson on Sunday. While that game ended up being close, N’eastern only led briefly in the first half and never had the advantage after halftime. James Madison lost for the first time at home on Sunday, 87-80 to Hofstra, a game the Dukes led by one at halftime. For most of the second half, it was a one-possession game. JMU was on a four-game win streak prior to losing to Hofstra. I think having them having the home court edge for this one is a big deal as their record in Harrisonburg is still 6-1 SU and they are averaging 81.0 PPG while allowing only 59.6 PPG. Meanwhile, this will be Northeastern’s fourth straight road game, a stretch which goes back to before the New Year. The Huskies are only 2-7 SU away from home so far this season and 1-5 ATS in “true” road games. After dropping a couple of close calls, the tank could be "running on empty" for N'eastern. JMU has covered both times this year when it has been a favorite of 3.5 or more points. Last month, they defeated VIRGINIA here at home! 10* James Madison | |||||||
01-11-22 | Ball State v. Akron -8.5 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
8* Akron (7:00 ET): The MAC - as per usual - seems pretty wide open this season. Toledo, Ohio & Buffalo should be considered the favorites right now, but not far behind is Akron, who I believe will win 20+ games by the end of the year. The Zips are just 7-4 SU right now, so they’ve got a lot of work to do to “live up” to my projection. A 69-63 home loss last week to Ohio didn’t help matters, but having a full seven days to prepare for this game, a drop in class vs. Ball State, a bounce back should be in order. Now Ball State does come in on a four-game ATS win streak and they won on the road Saturday, 78-72 at Eastern Michigan. The Cardinals entered that game as one-point underdogs, but were able to pull the minor upset due to an edge at the FT line (+11 in makes, +18 in attempts) and hitting a much higher percentage of 3PA (50% to 25% for EMU). They also held EMU’s second leading scorer to only seven points on 3 of 10 shooting. It was a solid effort, but also just the second road win of the season for Ball State, whose four previous “true” road games all resulted in double digit defeats. Akron hadn’t lost at home before facing Ohio last Tuesday. They were also on a six-game win streak overall. Having had several extra days to prepare is obviously a huge edge for the Zips coming into tonight’s contest. This will be the first time this season that BSU is playing two “true” road games in a span of four days or less. Note the reason for Akron having been off for a week was COVID, which cancelled Saturday’s game vs. Miami and had them short-handed vs. Ohio. But it looks like they’ll have the full complement of players tonight. Ball State is giving up a ton of points per game (84.0 on the road!) while the Zips average 82.2 at home. 8* Akron | |||||||
01-11-22 | Bologna v. Cagliari | Top | 1-2 | Win | 107 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
8* Cagliari +0.5 (2:45 ET) - Take Cagliari +0.5 here (on the goal line). That way, you’re covered in case of a draw, which certainly is a possible result in this Tuesday Serie A clash, which had to be hastily rescheduled (because of COVID) after a Sunday postponement. Whereas my last Serie A play was a byproduct of projected mid-table reshuffling, this is a case where one side (Cagliari) is clearly in need of points so that it can escape the relegation zone. I think they’ll at least get one here, if not the full three. Cagliari is off a win as it returned from winter break with a huge 2-1 win over Sampdoria. That moved them past Genoa into 18th place with 13 points, but they are still four points adrift of safety and that’s why this fixture is so key. After hosting Bologna on Tuesday, the next four fixtures will all come against sides occupying spots in the top half of the table. So points will probably be few and far between in that stretch. Winning here is pretty key for survival, and given the visitors’ current circumstance, Cagliari’s chances of winning B2B matches looks pretty good. Prior to the postponement of this fixture, Bologna also had Thursday’s match vs. Inter Milan controversially waved off (at the last minute) due to a COVID outbreak in their ranks. They’ve been forced into isolation and unable to train for Cagliari. Throw in the fact that Bologna already felt like an overachieving side due to tumble (-4 YTD goal differential) and I don’t see how they win here. They’ve won just three times in nine chances away this season. 8* Cagliari +0.5 | |||||||
01-10-22 | Mississippi Valley State v. Texas Southern -18.5 | Top | 58-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
8* Texas Southern (8:30 ET): Mississippi Valley State, who is the worst team in all of College Basketball, actually won a game on Saturday. They beat Prairie View A&M 84-82 in overtime, as a 17-point underdog, for their first win of 2021-22. But make no mistake about it, the Delta Devils have a LONG way to go in order to escape the basement of my power ratings. There’s only ONE team in the country that they’d be favored against at home (Delaware State) and that’s not who they are facing tonight. And it’s also a road game. On the road, MVSU is getting outscored by more than 30 points per game this season! So this should be the easiest win of the year for a Texas Southern team that’s gotten to play just ONE game at home prior to this. That lone home game was on Saturday and the Tigers ran past Arkansas-Pine Bluff 90-71. Opening the season with 11 consecutive road games is a BRUTAL ask, so look past Texas Southern’s record for this one. My power ratings have them closer to a 30-point favorite over MVSU! I think that the “thrill” of picking up their first victory will cause an inevitable “letdown” here for Miss Valley State, whose numbers this season are absolutely hideous. They shoot only 28.8% from three-point range and 36.1% overall. They’re being outscored by 25.6 PPG as they let opponents score 88 PPG on 53.1% shooting. Texas Southern was a 16-point favorite against Ark-Pine Bluff, so they certainly should be a larger favorite here. Look for this to be a complete blowout. 8* Texas Southern | |||||||
01-10-22 | Georgia -2.5 v. Alabama | Top | 33-18 | Win | 100 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
10* Georgia (8:00 ET): When I took Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, I noted that it felt like the all-time “buy low” situation on Nick Saban as his Crimson Tide were underdogs for just the second time in 165 games. They needed the game more than Georgia did (to get into the CFP) and sure enough, at the end of the day it ended up being an outright 41-24 win by Bama as 6.5 point underdogs. The spread is shorter this time, predictably so, but I am pivoting to Georgia for the rematch. This time, the Bulldogs will be ready and the more motivated side. I had Georgia in CFP Semifinals as they laid waste to Michigan by a score of 34-11. The game was never in doubt as UGA rolled to a 14-0 lead at the end of the first quarter and was up 27-3 at halftime. Really, the final score could have been a lot worse. The Bulldogs’ top ranked defense, which had three shutouts and held nine teams to 10 points or less in the regular season, again showed up in a major way vs. the Wolverines. This group is allowing just 9.6 PPG for the season and excluding the SEC Championship, has held the other 12 opponents to only 94 points. Other than Alabama, nobody scored more than 17 points against Georgia all season. This is a team that led most of the way in virtually every other game besides the SEC Championship. To me, the key here is if the UGA defense looks like it did in every other game this year. I don’t think there’s any way that ‘Bama goes for 41 points again. The Tide won’t have WR John Metchie this time. Georgia has been the better team all year in my eyes as Bama had the close calls vs. Auburn, LSU and Arkansas down the stretch. I don’t see Bama upsetting Georgia twice. 10* Georgia | |||||||
01-09-22 | Chargers -3 v. Raiders | Top | 32-35 | Loss | -106 | 53 h 37 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (8:20 ET): In the name of point differential, the Chargers MUST win this game. They have outscored opponents by 18 points this season. That’s certainly nothing special, but it’s what you’d expect from a 9-7 SU team that’s trying to grab one of the final playoff spots in the AFC. It’s far more impressive than Las Vegas, who is also 9-7 SU but has been outscored this year by 68 points. It is my view that the Raiders do not belong in the playoffs. Look for the Chargers to win (and cover) the final game of the regular season. These teams met back in Week 4 and I had the foresight to get down on Los Angeles, who went on to win 28-14. It was 21-0 at halftime and the Chargers finished with a 380-213 edge in total yards and 25-13 edge in first downs. For this rematch, yes the game is in Vegas, but the Raiders haven’t shown much of a home field advantage at Allegiant Stadium (3-5 SU here this season) and it’s not like the Chargers benefited from any home field edge at So-Fi Stadium (they have the weakest home field advantage in the league). Assuming that the Colts win earlier in the day (to move to 10-7 SU), then this becomes a “winner take all” game for the final playoff spot. If the Colts somehow lost, which is unlikely as they are facing the Jaguars, then BOTH of these teams could make the playoffs with a tie. I think the idea of playing for a tie in today’s NFL seems absurd. So I’m banking on Justin Herbert, who has previously led his team to victories in Kansas City, Philadelphia and Cincinnati (all playoff teams). The Raiders are a very lucky 6-2 SU in one-score games. Their luck runs out here. 10* LA Chargers | |||||||
01-09-22 | 49ers +4.5 v. Rams | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
9* San Francisco (4:25 ET): The 49ers (9-7 SU) need to win this game to ensure they make the playoffs. They could also get in with a Saints loss, but given who the Saints are facing (Falcons), they shouldn’t count on that. The Rams (12-4 SU) need a win here to clinch the NFC West. So both teams are invested in this Week 18 matchup. But the stakes are clearly higher for San Francisco, who has already beaten the Rams once this season, 31-10. I’ll take them plus the points in the rematch. I was on the Niners the first time these teams met. It was on MNF and quickly turned into a blowout as it was 14-0 after the first quarter. For the entirety of the second half, the Niners would maintain a two touchdown advantage. That was the game that really turned their season around. SF was only 3-5 SU heading into the game. They’ve won six of eight since. The two losses, both on the road, were by seven points or less. They clearly should have won the game in Tennessee. Believe it or not, the 49ers now rank 3rd in the league in yards per play differential, a metric that I really value. Now the big story heading into Week 18 is who will play QB for San Francisco. HC Kyle Shanahan and his team obviously knows, but the Rams do not. I view this as an obvious edge for the underdog. Jimmy Garoppolo, who missed last week due to a right thumb injury, reportedly had a “good week of practice.” So he could be back in the starting lineup. Or it might be rookie Trey Lance, who guided the team to an easy 23-7 win over the Texans last week. Either way, I like the Niners plus the points over a Rams team that’s been a little lucky the last few weeks. 9* San Francisco | |||||||
01-09-22 | Steelers +5 v. Ravens | Top | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 26 m | Show |
9* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): Both teams are mathematically alive for the playoffs, but it’s going to take plenty of help. The Steelers obviously must win here, then have the Jaguars beat the Colts and hope Chargers-Raiders doesn’t end in a tie. The Ravens’ chances are even more bleak as they need to win and have the Colts, Dolphins and Chargers all lose. I don’t think much of Pittsburgh (-58 point differential), but Baltimore (five straight losses with four coming by two points or less!) is a sinking ship right now. So take the points. It was announced Friday that Lamar Jackson will miss his fourth straight game due to a right ankle injury. The Ravens haven’t won since their QB got hurt, although the two games started by Tyler Huntley were both one-point losses. But don’t forget they were dominated at home by the Packers before making things interesting late. Then they were dominated by the Bengals with Jackson and Huntley both out. Last week, with Huntley back, the Ravens blew a 16-7 4Q lead and lost to the Rams 20-19. I just don’t see this team “getting off the mat” after such a slew of close losses. Pittsburgh is off an emotional Monday night in what was likely Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game. They beat the Browns 26-14. It was the Steelers that began the Ravens’ downfall with a 20-19 win back on December 5th, the first of two times John Harbaugh infamous went for two and the win, only to fail and lose the game. While the Steelers have been shakier on the road of late, I like that their defense is giving up only 4.7 yards per play the last three weeks while the Ravens’ defense has allowed 7.4 YPP over the same time. The Steelers are 34-15-2 ATS L51 tries as an underdog. 9* Pittsburgh | |||||||
01-09-22 | Quinnipiac v. Niagara -3 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 5 h 60 m | Show |
10* Niagara (1:00 ET): These teams met nine days ago and haven’t played since. Quinnipiac took the first meeting, 77-68 as a 1.5-point home dog, for their fourth consecutive win and cover. The Bobcats shot 53.8% from the floor in that victory, which is well above their season average of 45.2%. They raced out to a big halftime lead and also got a season-high 20 points from Dezi Jones. Now on the road for Sunday’s rematch, I can’t see a repeat performance from Quinnipiac, so look for Niagara to get some revenge here. The Purple Eagles have yet to record a conference win this season (0-3 in the MAAC) so they come into today pretty desperate. The switch in home court advantage should prove to be significant for this rematch as Niagara is holding teams to just 63.3 PPG on 39% shooting here in their own gym. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac’s defense gets significantly worse on their travels; they allow 77.2 PPG on 48.3% shooting away from home. Three times during this four-game win streak, Quinnipiac has been the underdog. I can’t see a fourth upset taking place over a five-game stretch. Again, Niagara was the slight favorite to win on the road, so we’re getting a good value on them for the rematch. The Purple Eagles are 12-4-1 ATS their L17 home games. The home team has won and covered four of the previous five meetings between these two teams, including a 75-59 Niagara win the lone time they got to play host during that stretch. 10* Niagara | |||||||
01-09-22 | Sassuolo Calcio v. Empoli | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 40 h 3 m | Show |
7* Sassuolo +0.0 (6:30 AM ET): Take Sassuolo (on the goal line). That way, you’re covered in case of a draw, which certainly is a possible result in this early Sunday morning (EST) clash in Serie A. Both sides are in fact coming off draws mid-week: Sassuolo 1-1 with Genoa and Empoli 3-3 with Lazio. While they both feel like they left two points on the table, it’s Sassuolo that has the stronger claim and as I’m about to get into, I Neroverdi has actually been the stronger side this season (despite currently being three points adrift of Sunday’s opponent). Sassuolo fell behind just six minutes into its first fixture of 2022. Facing a bottom of the table side like Genoa, on home soil no less, that had to be a terrible feeling. But shortly after halftime, Sassuolo’s Domenico Berardi was able to strike with an equalizer, allowing his side to at least earn a share of the points. Sassuolo had an incredible 28 shot attempts in the match (compared to just 4 for Genoa!) and dominated possession (74% to 26%), so they really should have been victorious. Empoli probably feels the same way after blowing an early 2-0 against Lazio and letting in a stoppage time equalizer. But the fact of the matter is that Empoli lost the possession battle (62% to 38%), had 12 fewer shot attempts and benefited from a VAR reversal of a Lazio goal. I had Lazio on Thursday and as I said in the analysis, Empoli should feel very fortunate to be sitting ninth in the table. They are actually sitting below Sassuolo in both xPts and GD right now. The visitors have suffered only one defeat in their last eight fixtures. 7* Sassuolo | |||||||
01-08-22 | Knicks v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 75-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
10* Boston (7:40 ET): This is a huge revenge game for the Celtics, who blew a 25-point lead on Thursday and lost to the Knicks 108-105. That game was decided on a RJ Barrett three-pointer, which banked in at the buzzer. For Boston, it was a second straight loss that came down to the final shot. Earlier in the week, they lost 99-97 at home to San Antonio when Jaylen Brown’s driving layup rolled off the rim as time expired. I expect the Celtics to come out highly motivated on Saturday and win big. The Knicks probably can’t count on getting 41 points from Evan Fournier, which is what happened in Thursday’s game. While it was a nice come from behind win for NY, you can’t erase the fact that they were down 25 at one point. The Knicks have played a bit better of late, winning five of their last seven, however Thursday was the only game in that stretch where they topped 105 points. In addition to Fournier’s likely regression, I cannot see the team shooting 50% from three-point range again like they did last time out. Boston is now 11th in the Eastern Conference, one game back of the Knicks for what would be the final spot in the play-in round. So in addition to the revenge angle, there’s a real sense of urgency coming into tonight’s game. I’m expecting big games from both Brown and Jayson Tatum tonight. The Celtics SHOULD be a top eight team in the East according to most metrics. I can’t see them losing a third straight game as a favorite and they are 6-3 ATS this season off a SU loss as a favorite. 10* Boston | |||||||
01-08-22 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 19 h 55 m | Show |
8* Oklahoma (6:00 ET): In all due respect, Iowa State could be the most overrated team in the country right now. The Cyclones are ranked #11 in the country by the pollsters, but my own personal power ratings don’t have them in the Top 50 and they are underdogs here in Norman to an unranked Oklahoma squad. The Sooners have already knocked off a pair of Top 25 opponents this year, Florida and Arkansas. Let’s make it three on Saturday. Lay the points. What is most remarkable about Iowa State’s 13-1 SU start is that this team finished 2-22 SU last season, including 0-18 in Big 12 play! Yes, COVID-19 was a major reason for that, but this kind of improvement, in terms of the record, is almost unprecedented. They lost their top five scorers from last season and returned only three rotational players. While the Cyclones lone loss was to #1 Baylor (in a New Year’s showdown of unbeatens), I remain unsold. It was a VERY ugly four-point home win over Texas Tech on Wednesday, 51-47. The last two games have seen the Cyclones shoot just 8 of 39 from three-point range. They were 3 of 19 overall from the field in the 2H vs. TT. The last time ISU won a Big 12 road game was Feb ‘19. It’s a 21-game losing streak since. Oklahoma is also a program that’s surprising under a first year head coach. Porter Moser inherited just four scholarship players, but has made it work as the Sooners are 11-3 this year. They are coming off a loss at Baylor, but there’s no shame there as it was on the road. In Norman, the team is 8-1 SU and holding opponents to 56.6 PPG. Wednesday wasn’t even Iowa State’s lowest scoring game this year. They also beat Jackson State with just 47 points. This spread “really tells a story,” and I expect OU, the better team, to win convincingly. 8* Oklahoma | |||||||
01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos +11 | Top | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
10* Denver (4:35 ET): Last week’s loss to Cincinnati means Kansas City essentially blew its opportunity to gain home field advantage in the playoffs. They still have a chance at being the top seed, mind you, but that would require not just winning here, but also Tennessee losing to Houston on Sunday, which probably isn’t going to happen. Now the Chiefs still do have some motivation on Saturday. A win would guarantee them no lower than the two-seed, meaning the possibility of two home playoff games. But I don’t think that necessarily guarantees they will go out and win by double digits here. Take the points here. After a 3-0 start to the season, the Broncos are just 4-9 in their L13 games, leaving them at 19-29 SU in HC Vic Fangio’s three seasons here. There’s a lot more questions than answers for this team as it will miss the postseason for a sixth straight year. But Denver does have a great defense, one that is ninth overall in yards allowed, third in scoring, seventh against the pass and 14th against the run. They will be missing a few starters on that side of the ball for this final game, but recall that they were able to limit KC QB Mahomes to just 15 completions - and zero touchdown passes - in the first meeting, which was a very misleading 22-9 loss. In that loss, the Broncos actually outgained the Chiefs 404-267 and had seven more first downs for the game. But they were limited to just three field goals and turned it over three times, one of which was an interception returned for a TD. That was the 12th straight loss for Denver to KC and while I don’t see that streak ending Saturday, look for the Broncos - thanks to their defense - to keep this one close. I think it’s going to be tough for KC to “get up” for this game after blowing a 28-14 lead at Cincinnati last week. The Chiefs’ defense gave up 475 yards, so there’s hope for Drew Lock and the Denver offense. 10* Denver | |||||||
01-08-22 | Colorado State v. San Diego State -2.5 | Top | 49-79 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
10* San Diego State (4:00 ET): Colorado State is one of the three unbeatens left in College Basketball. Baylor (#1) and USC (#7) are the others. I think this is it for the Rams, who I successfully faded earlier in the week (as 19-point favorites) against Air Force. While CSU (obviously) won the game straight up, they never came close to covering as the game was actually tied with just over 10 minutes remaining. This despite Air Force being without six players due to COVID, three of them starters and one their leading scorer. It was Colorado State’s first game in over three weeks due to cancellations and postponements as well. It’s a much tougher test than Air Force on Saturday as CSU heads west to visit San Diego State, who is a perfect 7-0 SU on its home floor this season. The Aztecs, along with Boise State, figure to be the Rams’ top challengers in the Mountain West this season. The hosts come into Saturday on a four-game win streak, including a 62-55 victory at UNLV last Saturday to open the MWC slate. They held the Runnin’ Rebels to just 29.7% shooting for the game, representing the lowest FG% by any SDSU opponent this season. I think the few extra days to prepare (compared to CSU) is a nice edge for San Diego State coming into this important conference clash. The Aztecs’ only losses this year came to BYU, USC and Michigan. They have a 15-game win streak in conference play and remember blowing a 26-point (and losing) to CSU when they hosted them last season. Third-leading scorer Lamont Butler could return from a wrist injury here. This is Colorado State’s first “true” road game of the season and it’s only being played Saturday because both teams had to reschedule this week’s original opponent. Look for the Rams to lose their first game. 10* San Diego State | |||||||
01-08-22 | St. John's +4.5 v. Providence | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
8* St. John’s (12:00 ET): As I predicted, #16 Providence went down on Tuesday. But the Friars didn’t just go down, they went down HARD. It was their worst game of the season - an 88-56 loss at Marquette - which pretty much backed up my assessment that they are NOT a legit Top 25 team. In case you missed that 10* offering from me (on Marquette), allow me to reiterate that Providence isn’t even a Top 40 team in my own personal power ratings. I’m playing against them on Saturday. In fading Providence Tuesday night, I pegged that they were “due” for a poor effort at the defensive end and sure enough, it ended up being their worst defense effort so far this season. Marquette shot 52.5% from the field, which was the first time any opponent shot better than 50% against the Friars. Defending St. John’s won’t be easy either. The Red Storm, led by Julian Champagnie, average 83.2 PPG. That’s the 12th highest figure in the entire country. For the sake of comparison, Providence is averaging only 68.9 PPG, which is 211th in the nation. Champagnie had a career-high 34 points and 16 rebounds in an 89-84 win over DePaul on Wednesday. His teammate, Dylan Addae-Wusu, also had career-high in that game with 17 points. Posh Alexander, another double-digit scorer, added 16. So the Red Storm have plenty of options to attack this Providence defense. The Friars have massively overachieved thus far (10-5 ATS) and G AJ Reeves is still questionable with a finger injury. This is only the third time St. John’s has been an underdog this season. Take the points, but an outright upset is likely. 8* St. John’s | |||||||
01-07-22 | Wolves v. Thunder +5.5 | Top | 135-105 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma City (8:05 ET): This is the second game of a home and home between these Northwest Division rivals. Minnesota took Wednesday’s game, at home, by a score of 98-90. Both Karl-Anthony Towns and D’Angelo Russell returned to the lineup, however there was some obvious rust shown from that duo. I understand that the T’wolves have been much better in the select number of times their full starting five has been available (Weds was just the 11th time this year), but I’ve got to fade this team as a road favorite, which they’ve been in only one game prior to tonight all season. Oklahoma City is also getting back to full strength as four players made their returns to the lineup on Wednesday. One was Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who led the team in scoring with 19 points. The Thunder also have a rookie PG, Josh Giddey, that is averaging 12.4 points, 9.5 rebounds and 7.4 assists per game. Giddey recently became the youngest player in NBA history to record a triple double. He’s only shot 25% from three-point range in the L2 games though, a number I expect to improve tonight. I also think Gilgeous-Alexander is set to score more than he did in Wednesday’s game. Oklahoma City, despite its poor overall SU record, is one of the best teams at covering the spread. They are 24-13 ATS, which is second best in the league right now, trailing only surprising Cleveland. The Thunder are 9-2 ATS their L11 games overall and here’s a trend for you: the team is a perfect 9-0 ATS this season if they allowed 100 pts or fewer in their previous game. Again, they allowed only 98 on Wednesday. 10* Oklahoma City | |||||||
01-07-22 | Marquette -2 v. Georgetown | Top | 92-64 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
10* Marquette (6:30 ET): The Golden Eagles treated me so nicely in their last game (an 88-56 demolishing of #16 Providence) that I’ll come right back with them again for Friday, this time as an even stronger play. Actually, this play has more to do with what preceded that impressive win over Providence Tuesday night. Marquette had lost four in a row, mostly close games. As I said in the analysis for Providence-Marquette, the Golden Eagles are a team you’ll want to “buy low” on right now as they are better than their overall record. The opponent here is Georgetown, who has yet to play a conference game. The Hoyas last took the court on 12/18, so it’s basically been three weeks off for them due to COVID. "We've been shut down because we had a lot of guys with COVID," coach Patrick Ewing said. "There wasn't too much we could do.” Wednesday was the team’s first full practice in more than two weeks. The Hoyas’ record this season is 6-5 SU and they did lose their last game, 80-73 here at home to TCU. While it is highly unlikely that Marquette will be able to match its performance from Tuesday, they won’t have to, as all we are basically in need of is a straight up victory tonight. I like the Golden Eagles’ chances as they’ll have revenge on the mind from LY’s Big East Tournament. G’town has shot relatively well from three-point range this year, but so had Providence and Marquette held them to 26.3% from behind the arc. The “renaissance” continues here for Shaka Smart’s team. 10* Marquette | |||||||
01-06-22 | Warriors -3 v. Pelicans | Top | 96-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
10* Golden State (8:05 ET): Even though Steph Curry is unlikely to play Thursday, I’m still going to back the Warriors in this game. Beating New Orleans is something they can still do, even without their superstar. The team shot a season-worst 5 of 28 from three-point range last night in Dallas, where they lost 99-82. There will be a natural progression to the mean in that category, even if Curry is unavailable. New Orleans is in the midst of a brutal stretch of games as they’ve previously faced the Bucks, Jazz and Suns. They lost to all three and surrendered an average of 124.7 PPG in doing so. It would be an obvious break, facing the Warriors w/o Curry, but it’s something I don’t think the Pelicans will be able to take advantage of. This is just a bad team. The Pelicans are 13-25 and second to last in the West. With Curry suffering the injury last night and Klay Thompson not yet back, where will the scoring come from for Golden State? How about Andrew Wiggins, who had a team-high 17 points last night. I’m also looking for a bounce back here from Draymond Green, who only had TWO points against Dallas. The Warriors beat the Pelicans by 41 earlier this year and can still win here, even without Curry. New Orleans’ leading scorer Brandon Ingram has been struggling of late. 10* Golden State | |||||||
01-06-22 | Sam Houston State v. Tarleton St -3.5 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
8* Tarleton State (8:00 ET): Tarleton State is off an embarrassing 22-point loss to Utah Valley on New Year’s Day, but prior to that, the Texans had been playing rather well. They’d won five of six overall as well as covered six of their last eight lined games. Defensively, the last game was their worst effort since an early season meeting with Kansas. It should be noted that the loss to Utah Valley came on the road. For the season, Tarleton State only allows 56.3 PPG at home. So I look for them to bounce back. Sam Houston State arrives on a three-game win streak, but the road has been a challenge for the Bearkats this season. In “true” road games, they are 0-5 SU and all five losses have been by nine points or more. SHSU hasn’t played a road game since 12/14 when they lost at North Texas. Three of the five road losses have seen them fail to score 60 points. The most points scored in any road game is 66. So it shouldn’t take a big scoring effort for Tarleton State to win this one. Their scoring average at home is 70.5 PPG, which is way up from what they average on the road. After shooting a dreadful 29% from the floor against Utah Valley, the Texans should see dramatic improvement at the offensive end tonight. They shot 58% in their most recent home game, which was a 22-point win over Air Force. Not only had Tarleton State won three in a row prior to the loss on 1/1, all three wins were by double digits. 8* Tarleton State | |||||||
01-05-22 | Nets -8 v. Pacers | Top | 129-121 | Push | 0 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:35 ET): The Nets have shockingly lost all three games since Kevin Durant’s return to the lineup. Those losses, all of which saw the Nets favored, were to Philadelphia, the Clippers and Memphis. The first two saw them blow fourth quarter leads while Monday was just a case of being outplayed by the Grizzlies. Durant and James Harden combined to shoot just 13 of 38 from the field, including 4 for 15 from three-point range. Overall, it was just a bad shooting night for Brooklyn as they were 9 of 31 from behind the arc and 12 of 21 at the free throw line. Fortunately, tonight the Nets are facing an Indiana team that is both short-handed and struggling. Without leading scorer Malcolm Brogden, the Pacers have dropped five in a row and are now 10 games below .500. They probably deserve a better fate as they’ve lost 9 of 10 games that were decided by three points or less. But this is NOT the matchup for the Pacers to “get right” as Brooklyn will certainly be motivated to end its own losing skid and the last five head to head meetings have all gone to the Nets, three of those being decided by double digits. There’s a curious thing going on with Brooklyn as they are just 10-9 SU at home, but 13-3 SU on the road. They did beat the Pacers at home earlier this season, 105-98. The Nets have cleaned up against sub-.500 opposition, going 13-2 SU. Oh, by the way, Kyrie Irving is expected to make his season debut tonight. That comes at a time when Indiana has eight players still in health and safety protocols. Lay the points. 10* Brooklyn | |||||||
01-05-22 | VCU v. Dayton -2 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
10* Dayton (7:00 ET): So the A-10 seems to be a bit “down” this year. There’s no team worthy of the Top 25 nor is there a clear-cut favorite to win the league. Here we have two of the stalwarts, VCU and Dayton, ready to open their conference schedule. VCU has won four in a row to get to 7-4 SU on the season. While two of the Rams’ losses are to Baylor and UConn, the others were to Wagner and Chattanooga. They should be respected for their defense (3rd in efficiency), but VCU’s problem is that it can’t score consistently (just 60.5 PPG). I think that costs them here on the road. Dayton has only managed a 2-2 split in its last four games, however both losses (SMU, Ole Miss) did come on the road. The Flyers come in at 8-5 SU on the year. Their most impressive win of the season obviously was the one against Kansas, which took place the day after Thanksgiving, on a neutral floor. Since then, the Flyers have been a bit inconsistent, although they’ve won all four home games, one of them against Virginia Tech as a 2.5-point dog. VCU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog so far this season, but this is a short number and Dayton is playing with big-time revenge after losing all three head to head matchups last season. The Flyers can also defend (just 61.2 PPG allowed at home) and they are more consistent than VCU at the offensive end. They’re shooting 48% on the season and averaging 70.4 PPG. Tonight is also VCU’s first game in three weeks, so they are likely to come out quite rusty. 10* Dayton | |||||||
01-04-22 | Air Force +20.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 59-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
8* Air Force (9:00 ET): There are still three undefeated teams in College Basketball. One is #1 Baylor. The second is #7 USC, who I’d say is slightly overrated (but still a Top 20 team). The third is Colorado State. Because they are 10-0, the Rams are obviously ranked. But my power ratings consider them to be just barely one of the top 35 teams in America. While it’s unlikely that CSU’s first loss comes tonight, I do think that this is a lot of points to lay in what will be their first time taking the court in over three weeks. Air Force is 8-4 SU. They just pulled a massive upset in their game, beating Utah State 49-47 as 13-point dogs. That was actually the fourth straight game where the Flyboys did not score 50 points. The previous three were all double digit losses on the road. Let the record show that Utah State is one of the better Mountain West teams, so the AFA isn’t going to be intimidated heading into Fort Collins tonight. If anything, they should be supremely motivated facing an undefeated (and ranked) opponent. COVID is obviously the reason for Colorado State’s long layoff. They had three postponements in December and don’t be surprised if the conference’s best shooting team comes out a little “cold” tonight. Air Force has held six different opponents below 40% shooting this season, including Utah State last week. That the Falcons were able to win that game, while shooting just 1 of 19 from three-point range, was pretty remarkable. They’ll shoot better from deep tonight and because they play at such a slow tempo, should easily stay within the number. They’ve had fewer cancellations, thus will be in better “game shape.” 8* Air Force | |||||||
01-04-22 | Providence v. Marquette +2.5 | Top | 56-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* Marquette (9:00 ET): Providence comes into this game ranked #16 in the country. But despite the Friars being on an eight-game win streak, my own personal power ratings are unimpressed, saying that not only does this team NOT deserve to be in the Top 25, but they are not even a Top 40 team in the country right now! The defensive numbers have been solid, but let’s see how the Friars perform here when they are playing a second straight “true” road game, a first for them this season. Marquette is going to be desperate here as they have not won a home game since 11/30. Coming off a double overtime loss to Creighton on New Year’s Day, a game where they were down by as many as 17, Shaka Smart’s team is certainly due to turn things around. The Golden Eagles have now dropped their last three at home, shooting less than 40 percent in those losses. Again, you’ve got to figure that number will improve here, even if they are facing a team that has posted a very strong defensive FG% on the year. One thing I do not see happening for Providence tonight is them shooting 8 of 15 (53.3%) from three-point range again, like they did in Saturday’s win at DePaul. Incredibly, the Friars have held their three previous Big East opponents to 33.3% shooting, which is astronomically low. You almost have to figure that number is going to go up and with Marquette’s own shooting due to IMPROVE, tonight seems like a “perfect storm” of sorts for the home team to pull an “upset.” Providence is only averaging 61.4 PPG on 38.9% shooting away from home. 10* Marquette | |||||||
01-04-22 | LSU v. Kansas State -7 | Top | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* Kansas State (9:00 ET): LSU is going to have a non-scholarship QB taking snaps in this game. That sounds bad. The reason for the situation is because starter Max Johnson transferred to Texas A&M, backup Myles Brennan is hurt and freshman Garrett Nussmeier didn’t want to lose his redshirt by playing. In addition to this dire circumstance under center, LSU barely has enough players (reportedly only 44 on scholarship still available) to suit up for this game because of COVID. And they have an interim coaching staff that probably could care less about winning. You’ve absolutely got to fade the Tigers here. Meanwhile, Kansas State has no COVID issues and is dealing with zero opt-outs. The Wildcats are getting their starting QB (Skylar Thompson) back from injury and clearly will be the more motivated side in the Texas Bowl Tuesday night. This is a chance for KSU to beat a SEC school and end its season on a positive note. They lost the final two regular season games and were without Thompson in the finale vs. Texas (only lost 22-17). In the last three games that Thompson has finished, the Wildcats averaged 33.3 PPG. Even when they were at full strength, something they are not close to being tonight, LSU wasn’t all that good this year. It was a 6-6 regular season in Baton Rouge and the only teams the Tigers defeated by more than seven points were: McNeese State, Central Michigan and LA Monroe, all games where they were favored by at least 19.5 points. Tonight is setting up to be a real embarrassment for the LSU program, almost as embarrassing as incoming HC Brian Kelly faking a southern accent in his first public appearance in front of the fanbase. 10* Kansas State | |||||||
01-04-22 | Michigan -4 v. Rutgers | Top | 67-75 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
8* Michigan (7:05 ET): So both these teams are 7-5 straight up. That’s definitely surprising on the Michigan side as the Wolverines were once ranked as high as #4 in the country in the early part of the season. Juwan Howard’s team comes into Tuesday’s game off a pretty shocking 85-71 loss at UCF, a game they led at the half. But the Maize and Blue simply could not get stops in the second half of that game as their opponents shot a preposterous 72 percent, including 8 for 8 from three-point range. It’s highly unlikely that Rutgers - or any future Michigan opponent for that matter - is going to shoot the ball that well again this season. The Scarlet Knights do have an impressive win on their resume, beating then #1 Purdue at the buzzer back on December 9th. They’ve subsequently wrapped up non-conference play with easy wins over Maine and Central Conn State. While the Scarlet Knights are 7-1 at home so far (0-4 on the road), this is going to be a tough game for them. They have never beaten Michigan since joining the Big 10. I believe the Wolverines are set to turn things around now that conference play is in full effect. My power ratings still consider them to be among the Top 25 teams in the nation, despite their disappointing record. Note that they’ve won by double digits off each of their previous four losses. Rutgers isn’t even the top 100 in my power ratings and they have a lower efficiency rating both offensively and defensively compared to Michigan. Lay the points. 8* Michigan | |||||||
01-02-22 | Vikings v. Packers -13 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (8:25 ET): The Packers should destroy the Vikings Sunday Night as the road team will be without QB Kirk Cousins. This is a revenge game for Green Bay, which lost the first meeting in Minnesota, 34-31 on a last second field goal. While they lost, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense averaged an impressive 8.6 yards per play against the Vikings’ defense. At home, the Packers are 7-0 this season and averaging 29.7 PPG. The Vikings’ defensive numbers get much worse on the road. While Rodgers figures to lead the Packers’ offense to a big day, you can’t expect much here from the Minnesota offense. The loss of Cousins is huge as he threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns in the first meeting. It will be Sean Mannion making just his third career start on Sunday night and he won’t have WR Adam Thielen to throw to. It’s expected to be very cold in Lambeau, which will have an adverse effect on a Vikings team that plays its home games indoors. The defense gives up 26.9 PPG on the road. Green Bay is a perfect 4-0 ATS in primetime games this season and 12-4 ATS in them all-time under HC Matt LaFleur. Overall, they are 11-4 ATS this season, including 6-1 at home. Rodgers has been absolutely on fire of late with a 16-0 TD-INT ratio the last five games. He is 25-12 ATS at home vs. NFC North teams. The Packers are looking to lock down home field advantage for the NFC playoffs, which would be huge for them given their record at Lambeau. I am predicting this will easily be the Vikings’ biggest loss of the season. 8* Green Bay | |||||||
01-02-22 | Drake +4.5 v. Missouri State | Top | 56-61 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10* Drake (8:00 ET): Both Drake and Missouri State are off to winning starts this season. Drake is 10-4 while Missouri State is 9-5. But Drake is 1-0 in conference play, having picked up a win over Valparaiso back on December 2nd, while Missouri State lost its only Missouri Valley game, as a 6.5-point favorite at Illinois State on December 1st. Now, after both teams won big against non-DI teams earlier in the week, it’s a permanent return to conference play. I like the road team to at least cover here. Drake has struggled to cover games this season (just 3-9 ATS overall), especially on the road (0-5 ATS), but they have been an underdog to just two teams this season: Alabama and Clemson. Despite the ATS struggles, the Bulldogs are on a four-game SU win streak. The last five seasons have seen them really own Missouri State with an 8-2 SU head to head edge, including a 3-0 season sweep in 2020-21. Missouri State has a shorter turnaround between games as they last played on Thursday while Drake’s last game was on Tuesday. While the Bears “couldn’t miss” in their last game, consider the opposition and they are also 0-4 ATS the last four times they’ve been off a game where they scored 90 or more points. That includes two straight up losses this season. Drake is 7-3 ATS following a win by 20 or more points and I think they are a lot better than their ATS record. Grab the points. 10* Drake | |||||||
01-02-22 | Lions +7.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-51 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
10* Detroit (4:25 ET): The Lions obviously don’t win many games (they are 2-12-1 straight up), but they do cover regularly. I like them this week plus the points against what is likely to be an unmotivated Seattle side. The Lions’ 10-5 ATS record is third best in the league, only trailing the Packers and Cowboys. Five of their losses this season have come by four points or less, including last week’s (20-16) against Atlanta. Since the bye, they are 6-1 ATS with three of their four SU losses coming by four or less. They tied the Steelers and beat the Vikings and Cardinals during that time. For the season, the Lions are 9-2 ATS as an underdog of four or more points and they’ve covered four straight times off a loss. Seattle has only been outscored by a single point this year, but they are 5-10 SU and were officially eliminated from playoff contention with last week’s loss to the Bears. Again, I have to come back to the issue of motivation as the Seahawks are just the fourth team since 2018 to be at least a six-point favorites despite entering the game with at least 10 losses. The previous teams in this role all lost the game outright! Over the L11 games, Seattle is only 3-8 SU with two of the wins coming against Jacksonville and Houston. They are 2-5 SU at home this season and with nothing left to play for, them laying points seems a bit dicey. QB Jared Goff is doubtful to play here, but his impact is minimal. The return of RB D’Andre Swift is significant though as are the contributions of WR Amon-Ra St. Brown, who is just the second rookie to have 7+ receptions in four straight games. Russell Wilson has not been himself since returning from injury as he ranks just 22nd in QBR and has now failed to throw for 300 yards in 10 consecutive games, his longest stretch since his rookie year. The Seahawks’ offense is dead last in the league in third down conversion rate (33.7%), a massive problem. Take the points. 10* Detroit | |||||||
01-02-22 | Texans v. 49ers -12 | Top | 7-23 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): I know that the 49ers may not have Jimmy Garoppolo this week, but based on how the QB performed last week, that may not be a bad thing. Plus the Niners will be facing the Texans, one of the league’s worst teams. If Garoppolo can’t go (and it’s looking doubtful that he will), then it will be rookie Trey Lance getting the start. Lance is a first round draft pick, so he’s not “chopped liver.” San Francisco SHOULD have beaten Tennessee last week; they led 10-0 at halftime and ended up outgaining the Titans 389-278 (not to mention 6.7 to 4.8 yards per play). Houston has won back to back games, but is still just 4-11 SU on the year and has the third worst point differential (-153) in the NFL. Let us not forget that two of the Texans’ four wins came against the Jaguars. Last week’s 41-29 upset of the Chargers was certainly shocking as the offense gained over 400 yards for the first time since Week 1. The Texans also benefited from three Chargers’ turnovers, one of which was an interception returned for a touchdown. The bottom line is that I still consider them to be one of the very worst teams in this league. This will actually be the first time under HC Kyle Shanahan that San Francisco is favored by more than 10 points. The team has generally struggled to cover as home chalk during Shanahan’s tenure, but there is no doubt in my mind that they will win this game and likely move on to the playoffs. Houston won’t be able to run the ball in this matchup, not just because they are last in the league in rushing offense, but also due to the fact the SF defense is #2 in the league at stopping the run. Meanwhile, the Niners get their leading rusher (Elijah Mitchell) back from injury this week. Lay the points. 8* San Francisco | |||||||
01-02-22 | Eagles v. Washington Football Team +5 | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:00 ET): This is the Football Team’s second crack at the Eagles in three weeks as they lost 27-17 in Philadelphia (on a Tuesday) back in Week 15. That game had to be moved because of COVID and while that’s still an issue in the Washington locker room, they will have some key players back on Sunday that missed the first meeting. Pro Bowl guard Scherff, safety Curl and top tackler Holcomb are all set to return. Most importantly, the team won’t have to rely on third string QB Garrett Gilbert this time. (Taylor Heinicke and Kyle Allen reportedly will both take snaps). Despite being so short-handed in that first meeting with the Eagles, Washington was still tied at halftime on the road. Now, in between games vs. the Eagles, it was obviously a horrible effort last Sunday night from the Football Team as they were lambasted 56-14 by Dallas. That loss is fresh on everyone’s mind, so I don’t expect a lot of people rushing to the window to bet Washington this week. However, it’s important to note that Philadelphia has some serious injury issues at the running back position with Miles Sanders and perhaps Jordan Howard out. That’s a big deal for an offense that leads the league in rushing. I know that these are teams trending in different directions, but Washington should be motivated after taking such an embarrassing loss in front of a national TV audience last week. Technically, they are still alive in the playoff race. I see value on them getting this many points. What’s interesting about the Eagles is that they were underdogs in each of their first seven games and have been favored (or a pick ‘em) in the last eight. Before the last three weeks, they’d never been favored by more than four points. 8* Washington | |||||||
01-01-22 | Abilene Christian v. Dixie State +9.5 | Top | 64-50 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
10* Dixie State (9:00 ET): Abilene Christian won its final 10 games of 2021. They covered the spread in all seven that were lined. But it was a close call 48 hours ago when they won at Utah Valley State, 80-76 as 1.5-point favorites, in the WAC opener. Tonight marks the first time since opening the season with three straight road games that the Wildcats are playing consecutive games away from home. Given how many points they are laying here, I think it’s an appropriate time to fade. Dixie State will be looking to rebound from consecutive losses tonight. The Trail Blazers had previously won six in a row before this losing skid. After getting blown out at Southern Utah on 12/22, Dixie State suffered just its second home loss of the year on 12/30, 83-69 to Tarleton State. They were three-point dogs for that game. The fact Tarleton State shot 50% for the game from three-point range did not help. Also, Dixie State attempted only 11 free throws compared to 22 for TSU. Dixie State had been 6-1 SU at home, prior to losing Thursday. They average 89.1 PPG for the year here. I see them putting enough points on the board tonight to easily cover this number. Abilene Christian’s success at the betting window has had an obvious influence on this line for tonight and it’s too high. It was shocking that they were able to win their last games, despite allowing 58% shooting. The favorite is due for an “off night” while the home team is going to be desperate to avoid a third straight loss. Take the points. 10* Dixie State | |||||||
01-01-22 | Clippers v. Nets -11.5 | Top | 120-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
10* Brooklyn (7:30 ET): The Clippers have the unenviable task of playing on both New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. After losing last night in Toronto, 116-108 as a seven-point dog, it’s a brutal spot here having to go to Brooklyn. The Nets will take no mercy on their unrested visitors; they are looking to bounce back from a surprising loss on Thursday, 110-102 to Philadelphia where they were five-point home favorites. It’s a big number, but you’ll want to lay the points in this matchup. Now, if you recall, I faded the Nets in that outright loss to the 76ers. I did so, despite Kevin Durant being back for Brooklyn. Durant actually played better than I expected, scoring 33 points in his first game in two weeks. James Harden also had 33 points. But the Nets had no answers defensively for Joel Embiid and also struggled from three-point range where they were just 7 of 27. That three-point shooting will improve tonight and a second game with Durant back in the lineup should see the Nets looking like a well-oiled machine. Now the Clippers are not just in the second night of a back to back, they are also extremely short-handed as Paul George is out indefinitely with an elbow injury. LA is just 2-6 SU its last eight games and this will be the second time in less than a week that they’ve got to face the Nets w/o rest. Last week, at home, they lost to them 124-108 and the Nets didn’t even have Durant for that game. The Clippers are now 0-4 SU and ATS the last four meetings with Brooklyn and this could be the ugliest result yet. 10* Brooklyn | |||||||
01-01-22 | Utah v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 45-48 | Loss | -105 | 127 h 3 m | Show |
10* Ohio State (5:00 ET): So I am fully aware of the opt-outs for the Buckeyes. That coupled with the way their regular season ended (loss to Michigan) have many questioning OSU’s resolve for this Rose Bowl Game vs. Utah. But have we all forgotten that Ohio State is one of the best teams in the country? Power ratings will never determine the College Football Playoff, but it’s still worth mentioning that virtually every set of my power ratings (including my own) would label the Buckeyes as the third best team in the country. With this line coming down so much, we are getting an incredible value on the favorite for this one. My power ratings suggest the number should be close to TWO TOUCHDOWNS! Utah comes in as one of the “hottest teams in the country,” but they also hail from the Pac 12, which is probably the weakest of the five power conferences. The two wins over Oregon were impressive, but other than those, it’s a lot of weak opponents that they were able to take advantage of. Ohio State, even minus the opt-outs, is easily the best team the Utes will have faced all season. I also think the notion that Ohio State “doesn’t care” about this game is a bit premature. No Buckeyes team has lost B2B games since 2013. They will be eager to atone for the loss to Michigan. Ohio State had the #1 offense in the country this year, averaging 551.4 yards and 45.5 points per game. Not sure how Utah can compete with that. On the field for the Buckeyes on New Year’s Day will still be QB CJ Stroud, RB TreVeyon Henderson, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Marvin Harrison Jr. This offense is still going to put points on the board. This is the shortest spread for any OSU game all season, even lower than when they visited Ann Arbor. Again, I believe it to be the best value of not just the bowls, but the entire College Football season. 10* Ohio State | |||||||
01-01-22 | Creighton v. Marquette +1 | Top | 75-69 | Loss | -106 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
8* Marquette (12:00 ET): Creighton is obviously the hotter team heading into this Saturday Big East matchup, but I think it’s a great spot to jump on Marquette. The Golden Eagles (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) have lost their last three games and four of the last five. The lone win in that stretch was by a single point, 64-63, over Kansas State. Furthermore, Marquette has not won at home since November 30th. After a 5-0 start to the season at home, they lost two games here last month, both to strong teams - UCLA and UConn. The most recent loss was 78-71 to UConn on Dec 21 and the Eagles were without Darryl Morsell, their second leading scorer. Morsell is expected to be back in the lineup this afternoon. Regardless, I like the home team as essentially a “pick ‘em” in this matchup. Not only is Marquette desperate for a win, but Creighton is in a major “letdown spot.” Creighton is coming off a shocking performance, a 79-59 upset of Villanova where they were seven-point home underdogs. While the upset took place all the way back on December 17th, it will certainly be a near impossibility for the Blue Jays to match their performance and intensity from that day. Following a 7-1 start, Creighton alternated wins and losses in a 2-2 December. They’ve also played only one “true” road game all season. Marquette beat a very good Illinois team here earlier this year, so they are more than capable of winning this game. We’re getting a really solid value on the home side here. 8* Marquette | |||||||
12-31-21 | Blazers +5.5 v. Lakers | Top | 106-139 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 55 m | Show |
8* Portland (10:35 ET): The Lakers stink. They have just one win in the past seven games and that came against lowly Houston. While LeBron James is doing his part, including 37 points and 13 rebounds on Wednesday, it hasn’t nearly been enough for an old team that is really short-handed. The Lakers are without several players due to health and safety, plus Anthony Davis is out with a sprained MCL. There have been 20 different starting lineups for the Lakers this season and the bench contributed just 18 points in the 104-99 loss at Memphis two nights ago. Things aren’t exactly going great for Portland either. The Blazers are 2-10 their last 12 games and off three consecutive double digit defeats. They are dealing with even more absences on the health and safety front and CJ McCollum has missed the L3+ weeks due to a collapsed lung. The Blazers have really struggled on the road thus far (2-12 SU, 3-11 ATS) and are just 2-11 ATS as underdogs this season. But I believe tonight is a situation where you’ll want to take the points. The Lakers are 9-17 ATS as favorites with 12 outright losses. They are also just 6-14 ATS at home. Much like how the Lakers are leaning on LeBron, the Blazers still have Damian Lillard, who had 32 points on Wednesday. So did Norman Powell. But it wasn’t enough against a top tier team like the Jazz. But it’s not the Jazz that Portland is facing here tonight; it’s an old Lakers team that I can see being “disinterested” playing on New Year’s Eve. Portland beat the Lakers earlier this season by 15 points. 8* Portland | |||||||
12-31-21 | Georgia -7.5 v. Michigan | Top | 34-11 | Win | 100 | 106 h 43 m | Show |
8* Georgia (7:30 ET): Michigan is what I’d call a “trendy dog” heading into the second CFP semifinal, which will be played at the Orange Bowl down in Miami. I suppose that’s not a shock, given how the Wolverines and Georgia performed in their respective conference championship games. Michigan throttled Iowa 42-3 to win the Big 10 while Georgia suffered its first loss of the year, 41-24 at the hands of Alabama. But the Wolverines don’t have Bryce Young playing QB nor are they as dynamic offensively as the Crimson Tide. Look for UGA to reassert itself defensively here and remind everyone why they were the #1 ranked team in the country for most of this season. Even after the debacle vs. Alabama, the Georgia defense can still say it only allows 9.5 PPG for the season. Prior to the SEC Championship, the most points allowed by the Bulldogs in a game this season was 17 (against Tennessee). Georgia almost never trailed at any point during the regular season. Not to make excuses, but heading into the Alabama game, the Bulldogs knew that they would still make the CFP even with a loss. Conversely, the Crimson Tide HAD to win the game to get in the CFP. The way the game unfolded very much reflected those realities. Remember that Michigan was a 6.5-point home dog to Ohio State and no one was giving them much of a chance. HC Jim Harbaugh deserves a ton of credit for winning that game, but the approach used against the Buckeyes (41 carries for 297 yds rushing) will not work here. The Georgia defense allowed 10 points or less nine times and had three shutouts. They’d allowed just 83 total points in the first 11 games. After upsetting Ohio State, the Wolverines caught a huge break drawing an overrated Iowa team in the Big 10 Championship. I’ve still got Georgia ranked as the best team in the country, even after the loss to Bama. 8* Georgia | |||||||
12-31-21 | Cincinnati +13.5 v. Alabama | Top | 6-27 | Loss | -100 | 102 h 33 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (3:30 ET): I thought that the SEC Championship Game was the ultimate “buy low” spot on Nick Saban as Alabama was not just a 6.5-point underdog to Georgia, but was also seemingly being written off by just about everybody. So I hopped on board, taking the points, and the Crimson Tide ended up turning in one of the more impressive performances of the entire College Football season by beating the top-ranked ‘Dawgs 41-24. After a win like that, Bama is pretty popular again and has been installed as double digit favorites for their CFP semifinal vs. Cincinnati. It’s too many points. I get that the Crimson Tide looked incredible vs. Georgia while Cincinnati is the first non-Power 5 team to ever make the CFP. But the Bearcats are legit. They are certainly better than the Notre Dame team Alabama faced in LY’s CFP semifinal. That game saw Bama fail to cover, for the record. Cincy absolutely deserves to be here as the lone 12-0 team in the country. They went to South Bend and handled Notre Dame pretty easily. Do I think the Bearcats will win on New Year’s Eve? No. But this is the biggest game in program history and they aren't about to get blown out. Non-P5 teams have been very competitive in NY6 Bowl Games in years’ past. My own power ratings say this should be a single-digit spread. Led by Heisman Trophy winning QB Bryce Young, Alabama does average 42.5 PPG. Not even Georgia’s top-ranked defense could slow them down. But the Crimson Tide did lose WR John Metchie to a knee injury in the SEC Championship, which will hurt. Cincinnati has the second best pass defense in the country and has 18 interceptions. I think they can slow down this Alabama offense, at least by enough to stay within the spread. Then you have the Bearcats’ offense, which averages 39.2 PPG. Let’s not forget that Alabama’s defense has not been great in 2021. It allowed 41 pts in the loss to A&M. The Tide had four close wins this year, against Auburn, Arkansas, LSU and Florida, none of whom are as good as Cincinnati. I’m taking the points. 8* Cincinnati | |||||||
12-31-21 | Northeastern v. William & Mary +8.5 | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
10* William & Mary (2:00 ET): William & Mary is one of four College Basketball programs that’s been eligible for every NCAA Tournament and never gotten in. That’s pretty embarrassing. But I’m not sure it’s more embarrassing than how the Tribe started their 2021-22 season. Not only did they lose their first 12 games, they were also 0-12 ATS. But W&M finally picked up a win on Wednesday, stunning Hofstra 63-62 as 17.5-point home underdogs. I think they’re in line to cover another game here on New Year’s Eve. Northeastern enters this game off back to back losses. Those two defeats were sandwiched around a pair of cancellations as the Huskies fell 79-69 to Davidson and 79-62 at Elon. The loss to Elon was particularly embarrassing as N’eastern came into that game favored by three points. They are now 0-4 SU in “true” road games this season with three of the four losses coming by 17 points or more. Williamsburg is not a place where the Huskies have performed well in the past; they’ve lost 10 of their last 13 trips here. I know that William & Mary has endured a brutal start to the season, but given how untrustworthy Northeastern has been away from home thus far, you’ve got to take the points in this one. William & Mary’s ATS record is so poor that you have to think a turnaround is coming at the betting window. It’s the law of averages. The win on Wednesday, where the Tribe held Hofstra to 30.2% shooting, should inspire some much-needed confidence. Northeastern has only three wins by more than six points, so this game should come down to the wire. Take the points. 10* William & Mary | |||||||
12-30-21 | Utah v. Oregon State +4 | Top | 76-88 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
10* Oregon State (9:00 ET): This line will most definitely be viewed as “curious” by most as you’ve got a 2-10 Oregon State team as a short home dog, facing Utah. The Beavers’ only two wins came in their first - and most recent - games. The most recent win was nine days ago against Nicholls State, 83-61 as a nine-point favorite. I think it would be rather foolish to write this team off as it was only nine months ago that OSU made its incredible run to the Elite Eight of the NCAA Tournament. They’ve also beaten Utah four straight times. Utah concluded the non-conference portion of its schedule with a 55-50 win over Fresno State nine days ago. The Utes are now 8-4 straight up, but only 4-7-1 ATS. They’ve played just two “true” road games so far and lost them both, 93-73 at USC and 83-75 at Missouri. While Oregon State may not be as formidable as either of those two teams, it is notable that Utah has suffered three double digits on the season. In the two previous conference games, the Utes shot just 38.0% from the field. They’ve been short-handed of late, though leading scorer Branden Carlson could return here. Oregon State has three losses by three points or less this season, so factor that in when looking at their overall record. The Beavers should be “pumped up” for this game in Corvallis as conference play certainly affords them a “fresh start” to the season. Utah is only 6-18 ATS its L24 games away from home and they’ve lost by an average of 18.5 PPG their previous two trips here. The Utes are 4-10 ATS the L3 seasons after allowing 60 points or less the previous game, including 1-3 ATS this season alone. 10* Oregon State | |||||||
12-30-21 | 76ers +5 v. Nets | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
10* Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Both the 76ers and Nets are getting closer to full strength and it’s showing in the results. Brooklyn, thanks to James Harden, just went out to Los Angeles and beat both Lakers and Clippers in somewhat convincing fashion. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is looking to make it a perfect 3-0 road trip tonight after wins in Washington and Toronto following a Christmas break. The Sixers have won three of their last four overall, the only loss coming by two points. I know there’s a chance Kevin Durant may return tonight for the Nets, but it’s no guarantee that he will play well after a two-week absence. Brooklyn has not performed well this season when off a double-digit win. They are just 1-7 ATS in that situation, which presents itself again tonight as the Nets beat the Clippers 124-108 on Monday. Harden scored 39 points and the team shot 56.8% in that game. Even if Durant returns, there’s just no way they are going to match that kind of shooting tonight. Philly has done a good job defensively of late, holding two of its last three opponents below 100 points. Doing that again tonight might be asking a bit much, but it’s worth pointing out that the Nets “only” average 108.0 PPG at home. The 76ers, who are just 18-16 on the year and tied for 6th in the Eastern Conference, need this game more than the Nets. It’s also a double revenge game as they are 0-2 vs. Brooklyn this season. The first game saw them blow a halftime lead while the second saw them nearly rally back from a 20-point deficit, despite poor shooting (29.4% from three-point range). The 76ers were up by as many as 17 on Tuesday vs. Toronto as Joel Embiid turned in his sixth consecutive 30+ point game. This is an entirely different team when Embiid is in the lineup and they have actually been better on the road (than at home) this season. Take the points. 10* Philadelphia | |||||||
12-29-21 | Oregon +4.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 32-47 | Loss | -108 | 59 h 19 m | Show |
10* Oregon (9:15 ET): There was some concern earlier in the week on the Oregon side over players missing practice, but my view is this is too many points for a game where the favorite (Oklahoma) is dealing with numerous question marks itself. The Sooners’ lost HC Lincoln Riley right after a disappointing regular season concluded and Bob Stoops, who has spent the last several seasons as a TV commentator for FOX, will now be coaching the team for one night only. Stoops wearing the headset might be a fun “gimmick” for the talking heads, but I have my doubts as to how OU will play in this game. Of course, Oregon also lost its HC (Mario Cristobal) right after the regular season as he jumped to Miami. Like Oklahoma, the Ducks’ chosen replacement is a well-known defensive coordinator, but it will be Bryan McClendon coaching here on an interim basis. The bloom seems to be off Oregon right now after two late season losses to Utah, one in the Pac 12 Championship, but I see that as a case of the Utes being a bad matchup. The only other time the Ducks lost this year was an overtime game, when they were short-handed, against Stanford. I love them getting this many points in the bowl. Oklahoma’s DC followed Riley to USC. On the field, the Sooners will be missing their top tackler and top three guys in sacks! There’s just no way they should be laying this many points. Don’t forget Oregon went to Ohio State and won earlier in the season and did so without DE Thibodeaux, who will be out here. Look for the Ducks’ offense, which averaged over 31 PPG, to make enough plays here to at least keep them within a generous number Wednesday night. Oklahoma certainly appears to be an overwhelming public favorite and that level of support is simply not justified. 10* Oregon | |||||||
12-29-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -2.5 | Top | 116-108 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
10* Indiana (7:05 ET): The Pacers, statistically, have been better than the Hornets this season on a possession by possession basis. They’ve got a slightly higher net efficiency rating as well as a superior point differential. But Charlotte has the better overall record, 18-17 SU compared to 14-20 SU. How can that be? Well, Indiana has had the worst “luck” in the league in close games this season, going 1-8 SU when the final margin is three points or less. I think that tonight, it’s time for the Pacers to get a “little lucky.” The Pacers have a much better record at home (11-7 SU) than on the road (3-13). Fortunately for them, tonight’s game is at home. While the last two home wins came against lightweights Houston and Detroit, Indiana has won five of six overall here at Bankers Life Fieldhouse with the one loss coming by two points to Golden State. Indiana’s disparity in win percentage at home vs. the road is the largest in the league. They were a bit short-handed (no Malcolm Brogden) for Sunday’s loss at Chicago, but I think the home court edge is the key here, even if Brogden (listed as questionable for tonight) cannot return. While Indiana is clearly a better team at home, Charlotte is just 9-13 SU on the road. The Hornets are dead last in the league in points allowed (116.3 per game), giving up 5.5 more per game than every other team in the Eastern Conference. They had a brief stop back home on Monday - when they blew out Houston 123-99. But before that, they’d gone 1-5 SU on a six-game West Coast swing. I think the Pacers’ home court edge and the Hornets’ leaky defense prove to be the difference makers in this one. 10* Indiana | |||||||
12-29-21 | Seton Hall +1.5 v. Providence | Top | 65-70 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Seton Hall (7:00 ET): I think that it’s fair to say I was “ahead of the curve” on Seton Hall, whom I took early in the season in an upset win over Michigan. In my analysis for that play, I called the Pirates “one of the better teams in the country.” They’ve spent the bulk of the season ranked in the Top 25, though like a lot of squads, it’s been awhile since they took the court. Three straight cancellations, including their first two scheduled Big East games, have resulted in a 17-day gap between games for Seton Hall. Providence is a team I’m less sold on right now. Though also ranked in the Top 25, the Friars rate a lot lower than Seton Hall in my own personal power rankings. I do not even consider them to be a Top 45 team, let alone Top 25. But the Friars are 11-1, their only loss coming by 18 to Virginia back on Nov 23. They have gotten a Big East game in, a 57-53 win at UConn where the Friars were 7.5 point dogs and held their opponents to 31.1% shooting. What I would consider to be a second straight upset is unlikely, however. Seton Hall (9-1) is just plain better, in my eyes. Their only loss was by three points, on a neutral floor, to Ohio State back in November. In addition to the win over Michigan, the Pirates have beaten Texas. Providence’s best win - by far - was the one over UConn on Dec 18th. Obviously, both teams have had extended time off here, but I am simply going to trust my power rankings, which say Seton Hall is decidedly the better team here. 10* Seton Hall | |||||||
12-29-21 | Iowa State +2.5 v. Clemson | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
8* Iowa State (5:45 ET): I think this is one of the better December bowl matchups. We’ve got two teams that started the season ranked in the Top 10. While the perception is that Clemson (now #19) and Iowa State (now unranked) had disappointing years, the reality is that both squads are still in the Top 15 of my own personal power rankings. Iowa State, the preseason favorite to win the Big 12, suffered five losses by a total of 29 points and all four conference losses were decided on the final possession. I think, even without RB Breece Hall, the ‘Clones will be motivated to make it eight wins for the fourth time in Matt Campbell’s six seasons here in Ames. Take the points. I can’t say that I’m too confident in Clemson’s motivation here. This is the first time in a while that the Tigers find themselves in a December bowl. After six straight appearances in the College Football Playoffs, they had three regular season losses for the first time since 2014. This in a year where the ACC was really down. While no Clemson players are skipping the Cheez-It Bowl, Dabo Swinney’s coaching staff has taken a hit as he lost both coordinators in the last few weeks. While the Tigers did have a strong finish to the regular season, it was against a very soft schedule. Without Hall, Iowa State’s offense will be challenged going against a Clemson defense that, statistically, is among the best in the country. But I’m unconvinced that we’ll see the same level of defense from Clemson here in the bowl. The Tigers’ offense ranked just 96th in the FBS this year as QB DJ Uiagalelei really struggled, filling in for Trevor Lawrence. Iowa State’s defense should not be overlooked as it allowed just 309 YPG and ranks 13th against the pass. It all boils down to motivation and I think ISU is going to use this game to make a statement to the rest of the country. 8* Iowa State | |||||||
12-28-21 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
10* Denver (10:05 ET): Golden State got a huge win on Christmas, beating Phoenix 116-107 as 5.5-point dogs. But now they are set to be even more short-handed with Draymond Green joining four other teammates on the COVID-19 list. Tonight’s game, the front end of a home and home with the Nuggets, isn’t nearly as important to Golden State as the X-Mas Day game was. So I don’t like the idea of them laying this many points to a Denver team looking to solidify its own spot in the Western Conference pecking order. The Nuggets picked up a win on Sunday, beating the Clippers 103-100. But they were four-point favorites, so they failed to cover. It was the fourth straight time Denver failed to cover as chalk. They’d lost the previous three outright. But the last time they were a dog saw them turn in an outstanding effort, winning in Atlanta 133-115. Right now, reigning league MVP Nikola Jokic seems to be a man on a mission with back to back 20+ point & 20+ rebound games. It’s 55 points and 43 rebounds for him over the last two games. Obviously, Golden State should still be respected as they have the best record in the league. But this is basically going to be the “Steph Curry show” tonight due to all the absences. Green’s absence is the biggest of the five and will be felt. Curry had 33 points on Christmas, but even if he were to match that number here, I don’t see it being enough for the Warriors to cover the spread. The last time the Dubs were off a win over Phoenix, they lost the next game outright. 10* Denver | |||||||
12-28-21 | Texas Tech v. Mississippi State -9.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
8* Mississippi State (6:45 ET): The Liberty Bowl is a very interesting matchup as you have Mississippi State, coached by Mike Leach, taking on Texas Tech. Of course, once upon a time, Leach was the coach at Texas Tech (from 2000-09). In the build up for this game, Leach was quoted as saying, “They still owe me for 2009, the last time they won nine games. Maybe they’ll deliver the check.” So there’s still plenty of bad blood here. I think that MSU is going to want to win this game for their coach and they will win big. This is a bad matchup for the Texas Tech defense, which ranks 112th in the country against the pass. Opposing QBs completed 66.8% of their pass attempts against the Red Raider this season. It just so happens that no QB in the country had a higher completion percentage than Mississippi State’s Will Rogers, who is at 75.1%. Rogers threw for at least 294 yards in every game and finished with a SEC-leading 4,449 yards and a 35-8 TD-INT ratio. The Bulldogs average 30.9 PPG on offense. Texas Tech also averages 30.0 PPG, but you’ve got to wonder about their motivation for this game. They’re being led by an interim HC (Joey McGuire), who has already accepted a coaching job elsewhere (La Tech). The Red Raiders did not have a strong finish to the regular season, losing four of their last five games. That’s quite different from Mississippi State, who ended on a 4-2 SU/5-1 ATS run. The Bulldogs are better than their record as three of their five losses came by three points or less. 8* Mississippi State | |||||||
12-27-21 | Grizzlies +8.5 v. Suns | Top | 114-113 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
8* Memphis (9:05 ET): The 116-107 loss that Phoenix suffered on X-Mas Day was only their third defeat in the last 28 games. It also snapped a 15-game win streak here at home. There is no denying the pecking order in the Western Conference has a clear top three teams and the Suns are among the three. But of the three teams, I actually believe Phoenix is the “worst.” Their point differential and efficiency rating lags behind those of the Warriors and Jazz. What I’m saying is that I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team that’s been red hot, slip up a little bit in the coming weeks. Memphis is currently fourth in the West. While there’s a four-game gap between them and the top three, the Grizzlies are coming off a 127-102 win in Sacramento last night. That ended a three-game losing streak. They come into tonight as decided underdogs, but that’s okay considering their 11-5 ATS mark in that role this season. Six of the last seven times the Grizz have been getting points, they have covered the number. They are also 7-1 ATS L8 road games. This number is jacked up due to Memphis coming in without rest. I get their rotation is shortened because of COVID, but the same can be said for Phoenix. Losing to Golden State on X-Mas may result in a bit of a “hangover” here for the Suns, while the Grizzlies are definitely looking to avenge a 25-point loss they suffered at home last month. That previous meeting saw Phoenix lead wire to wire as Memphis shot poorly. Look for better shooting from a motivated dog tonight. Take the points. 8* Memphis | |||||||
12-26-21 | Broncos +1 v. Raiders | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
10* Denver (4:25 ET): Point differential. That’s what this play essentially boils down to for me. Both teams are 7-7. But the Broncos have a +42 YTD point differential. The Raiders are -77. That’s quite the difference. When a team is .500, you’d expect their number of points scored and allowed to be pretty close to even. Yet that’s not the case with either of these teams. Denver should have a better record. Las Vegas should have a much worse record. I’m taking the better team. The Broncos also have revenge here for a 34-24 loss in Week 6. Total yardage was basically even in that game (424-421), but Denver was -4 in turnovers. If you’re a long-term follower of mine, then you know I’m a big believer in scoring differential being a strong indicator of future outcomes, not just in NFL but for all sports. Looking at the Raiders’ point differential, I won’t be the least bit surprised to see them lose all of their remaining games. They could barely beat a COVID-ravaged Cleveland team last Monday. In six of the last seven games, this Raiders’ offense has scored 16 points or less. I just don’t think Las Vegas is a very good football team! 10* Denver | |||||||
12-26-21 | Jaguars +2 v. Jets | Top | 21-26 | Loss | -103 | 4 h 1 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): The Jaguars were actually a popular choice last week. They’d just fired the embarrassing Urban Meyer and were facing Houston. Unfortunately, it was “same old Jags” as they lost for a second time this season to the Texans, 30-16 as six-point chalk. I was one of those that made the mistake of taking Jacksonville in that spot. Call me stubborn, but I think *this* is now the week this struggling side “gets off the mat.” They are facing a Jets team that’s missing a lot of key personnel, including its head coach. The Jets have been just as miserable as the Jaguars this season. New York has one more win than Jacksonville, but also has a slightly worse YTD point differential. Last week saw the Jets suffer their third straight defeat, 31-24 at Miami. They’ve now been outscored by 178 points. The Jags have been outscored by 174. Those are the two worst point differentials in the sport. But the key is the Jets being without HC Robert Saleh as well as their three top receivers, a tight end and two guards. If the Jags, after a coaching change, can’t be the short-handed Jets, then I don’t know what to say. The Jets’ defense is the worst in the league by a pretty wide margin. It allows 30.6 points per game. So look for Jacksonville’s offense to score a season-high in points today. They have not scored more than 23 in any game all year. If they fail to score 24 against the Jets, they would be the first team since the 2010 Panthers to not score 24 points in their first 15 games of the season. The time is now for Jacksonville! 8* Jacksonville | |||||||
12-26-21 | Rams -3 v. Vikings | Top | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 3 h 55 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (1:00 ET): The Rams are now in first place in the NFC West following last night’s loss by Arizona. In order to stay there, they must defeat Minnesota here. Given what the Rams have done each of the last two weeks, it would be foolish to bet against them. Two weeks ago, despite being severely short-handed because of COVID, they were able to go on the road and beat the Cardinals 30-23 in front of a national TV audience. Then came Tuesday’s 20-10 win over Seattle. Lay the points here. An outbreak that once included 29 players is now down to four for the Rams and none of those four that remain on the COVID list are starters. Look for the Rams offense to have a big passing day here against a Vikings defense that is allowing 252.1 yards per game through the air. Rams’ WR Cooper Kupp now has 10 straight games with at least 90 yards receiving. Sean McVay’s defense turned in a fine effort Tuesday night, holding Seattle to not just 10 points, but only 214 total yards. Minnesota is also on a short week here. They won 17-9 in Chicago on Monday, but it was not a good performance as the offense gained less than 200 yards and went 5 of 17 on third down. They were outgained by the Bears 370-193. The Vikings were quite lucky to recover three fumbles in the game. WR Adam Thielen will be back this week, but RB Dalvin Cook has been ruled out and that is potentially more significant. 8* LA Rams | |||||||
12-26-21 | Bills +1 v. Patriots | Top | 33-21 | Win | 100 | 3 h 30 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): First place in the AFC East is on the line Sunday in New England. The Patriots won the first meeting with the Bills, a famously windy affair where QB Mac Jones attempted only three passes. That win is the difference in the standings right now as New England enters this game at 9-5 while Buffalo is 8-6. But Mother Nature is not expected to play such a key role in today’s rematch and I think the better team (Buffalo) will rise to the top. The Bills are 15-8-1 ATS as an underdog and 18-9-1 ATS as an underdog with Josh Allen as the QB. They are 10-4-1 ATS as road underdogs. In the first meeting, Buffalo was the team more adversely affected by the windy conditions as it severely limited what they could do in the passing game. Red zone inefficiency also played a role in the 14-10 loss. Late in the game, the Bills missed a field goal and turned it over on downs. Expect Allen to be a lot more effective this time around, even without receiver Cole Beasley (who is on the COVID-19 list). The Bills have averaged 29 points in the two games since losing to New England. Remember that the Patriots lost last week, 27-17 at Indianapolis. They were actually underdogs. The loss snapped a seven-game SU/ATS win streak. With Tennessee’s win on Thursday, the Pats have fallen into third place in the AFC playoff picture. This is an important game for them too, obviously. But the offense hasn’t been putting up big numbers and the defense won’t be able to slow down the Bills for a second time. 8* Buffalo | |||||||
12-25-21 | Colts v. Cardinals -1 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -120 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:00 ET): The Cardinals badly need to win this game. Not just because they’ve lost two straight and four of their last seven. The losing streak has resulted in them falling into a tie with Los Angeles for first place in the NFC West. Earlier in the year, when they were 7-0, the Cards had to figure they were a shoo-in for the top seed in the NFC. But now they are looking at possibly falling into a Wild Card spot as last week saw the “unthinkable” happen - a 30-12 loss in Detroit, a game that Arizona was favored to win by 13 points. The Cardinals’ opponents this week, Indianapolis, are trending in a much different direction. The Colts have won five of six, including a very impressive showing last Saturday (at home) vs. New England. But despite winning 27-17, QB Carson Wentz was abysmal against the Patriots, completing only 5 of 12 passes for 57 yards. The Colts were outgained in that game, not just on a per play basis, but also 365-275 overall. Interestingly enough, they are 0-5 ATS coming off a game where they had less than 150 passing yards. On Thursday night, we all saw how one team (Tennessee) that was seemingly trending in the wrong direction beat a hot team (San Francisco). I believe the same will hold true here. The Cardinals are still higher than the Colts in my power ratings. Factoring that in plus the home field, they should be a larger favorite in this spot. Obviously, they’re going to be motivated coming off their worst loss of the season. Meanwhile, Indy is off arguably its best win of the season and thus could be in store for a letdown. This is the first time Arizona has been off B2B losses this year. Indy is 3-9 ATS the L12 times it has been off B2B wins. 10* Arizona | |||||||
12-25-21 | Hawks v. Knicks -6 | Top | 87-101 | Win | 100 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
8* New York (12:05 ET): It seems as if EVERY team in the league is currently being hit hard by COVID-19 related absences, but the Hawks and Knicks are both dealing with some SERIOUS attrition heading into XMas Day. Atlanta was already without SEVEN players due to health & safety protocols before both Cam Reddish and Delon Wright suffered sprained ankles on Thursday. Somehow Atlanta still managed to upset Philadelphia, 98-96, as Joel Embiid missed a potential game-tying shot at the buzzer. But of the starting five from last year’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals, John Collins is the lone starter left for the Hawks right now. The most prominent absence is Trae Young, who is not expected to play here. Not to be outdone, the Knicks have five players in quarantine and Derrick Rose is out due to an ankle injury. While the Hawks managed to somehow win their last game, the Knicks were not as fortunate, losing 124-117 to Washington despite 44 points from Kemba Walker. It was an inability to get stops that doomed New York on Thursday night as they let the Wizards shoot 56% from the field. The loss was the Knicks’ ninth in the last 12 games as this continues to be a very disappointing season with the team now four games below .500 and outside of a play-in tournament spot. Remember that last year saw NY finish fourth in the Eastern Conference, only to be eliminated in the first round of the playoffs - by Atlanta. So neither team’s lineup on Saturday is going to resemble what we saw in last year’s playoffs. But that doesn’t mean that the Knicks won’t still be out for revenge. Yes, they already did beat the Hawks 99-90 (in Atlanta) last month. But a win on XMas would be an even bigger deal. Walker has shown himself to be capable of carrying the scoring load for New York. I don’t know who can do that now for the Hawks, who did beat the Sixers, but also lost to the Magic the previous day. In both games, the Hawks scored just 98 points. They are 0-3 SU/ATS this season coming off a SU win as an underdog. The Knicks should also defend better here than they did vs. the Wizards the other night. 8* New York | |||||||
12-23-21 | Central Florida v. Florida -7 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
10* Florida (7:00 ET): Call it a “hunch,” but the Gasparilla Bowl is probably NOT where either of these two once proud Floridian schools wanted to end their season. UCF, which went 35-4 SU from 2017-19 including a perfect 13-0 in ‘17, has now lost four games in each of the last two seasons. Losing QB Dillon Gabriel to a season-ending injury was the key “blow” this season, although it should be mentioned that the Golden Knights were 6-2 down the stretch without Gabriel. But the majority of those wins were racked up against the dregs of the AAC. Outside of Cincinnati, who blew UCF out 56-21, Florida will be the toughest opponent of the season. At 6-6, the Gators were probably one of the more disappointing teams in the country. It was only a year ago that they ranked sixth in the country under Dan Mullen. Mullen has been fired and the program will be “starting over” under Billy Napier, who was wooed away from Louisiana. Coaching the bowl game for Florida will be a mix of Mullen’s staff. I acknowledge not having QB Richardson and DE Carter hurts the Gators, but my power rankings still call this a Top 30 team in the country and they are simply way more talented than UCF is. I think it’s safe to say that a six-game ATS losing streak (for Florida) is what’s keeping this line so short. But again, UCF hasn’t beaten anyone of note since Boise State in the season opener. I think the fact that this is an “in-state rivalry game” will motivate the favorite as the players don’t want to head into a new regime having lost to a lesser Sunshine State school. QB Jones is going to enter the transfer portal. While he may not care about the future of football in Gainesville, he’s going to want to look good for whomever his next team will be. At the end of the day, the Gators are simply the much better team here and they are 6-2 ATS L8 as a bowl favorite. Thus, I’ll lay the points. 10* Florida | |||||||
12-22-21 | Missouri +7 v. Army | Top | 22-24 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
8* Missouri (8:00 ET): Well, there certainly seems like a lot of reasons to discount Missouri in this game. The Tigers aren’t very good at stopping the run (usually a problem when facing Army), their own starting running back (SEC’s leading rusher) is out and they’ll be breaking in a new starting QB. But, this is still a SEC team that has had ample time to prepare for what they’ll face on Wednesday night. As for Army, the disappointment of losing to Navy probably “soured” them on this game a bit. Take the points. If you look at who Army beat this year, it’s not exactly a “who’s who” of College Football. Liberty, UMass, Bucknell, Air Force, Miami OH, UConn, Western Kentucky and Georgia State were the victims. That list includes a FCS team and the two worst FBS teams. The Black Knights couldn’t run the ball vs. Navy, which was a surprise. I know that Navy runs the same offense, so they are uniquely suited to stop the triple option. But also think of the time Missouri has had to prepare to defend it. That’s key. Brady Cook will get his first career start tonight for the Tigers. Having just played 11 days ago, it’s going to be tough for Army to prepare for a new starting QB that they’ve never seen before. That brings me to my next point - Missouri has had far more time off to prepare for this game. They last took the field on Nov 26. They figure to come out a lot fresher in this Armed Forces Bowl and I think a hot start will - at the very least - result in an ATS win. With the line moving as much as it has, we’re getting good value on the dog. 8* Missouri | |||||||
12-22-21 | East Tennessee State v. Georgia -3.5 | Top | 86-84 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
8* Georgia (7:00 ET): Georgia is having a tough season. They’ve already lost two starters to season-ending injuries. The end result is a 5-6 SU record coming into Wednesday. But the Bulldogs did win earlier in the week, beating Western Carolina 85-79 on Monday. They failed to cover though as 11.5 point chalk. The pointspread has certainly been unkind to UGA so far this season as they are just 4-7 at the betting window and that includes a 2-0 start to the year. But it's a small number at home tonight and I’m laying it. East Tennessee State comes into Athens with a 7-5 overall record (straight up). But they are coming off a loss, 79-64 at UNC Asheville on Saturday. That was actually the second straight loss for the Buccaneers as they went down at the hands of North Carolina A&T (as 12-point favorites!) last week. And Saturday’s result also dropped them to 0-4 SU this year in “true” road games. It would certainly appear as if ETSU is getting a bit too much credit from oddsmakers here, probably due to the Georgia injuries. Again, those injuries didn’t prevent the Bulldogs from winning on Monday and they also put up 85 points in the process. East Tennessee State likes to play slow, so if Georgia can push the tempo, they should be in good shape tonight. There are still four players on the team averaging in double figures. The key here for Georgia will be improving their three-point shooting. They’re at just 30.7% for the season, which is bad enough that you have to figure they almost HAVE to improve. 8* Georgia | |||||||
12-21-21 | Wolves v. Mavs +1.5 | Top | 102-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:35 ET): This is an immediate revenge situation for Dallas, who lost to Minnesota 111-105 on Sunday night. Ironically enough, I had the T’wolves minus the points in that game. But now it’s time to go the “other way,” even though the Mavs look to be short-handed going into the rematch. Luka Doncic is expected to miss this game while Kristaps Porzingis is questionable. Several other players have made their way onto the COVID-19 list. But we’ve seen “strange things” (i.e. wins) all season from these teams dealing with absences. I look for the other players to step it up on Tuesday night. Minnesota has now won four in a row and passed Dallas in the Western Conference standings. With the West seemingly so depth-shy this season and the advent of a play-in round, this would seem to be an ideal year for the T’wolves to make a rare playoff appearance. But a couple things to keep in mind here - they are dealing with a couple players on the COVID list and even with Dallas being short-handed on Sunday, the T’wolves could only win by six at home. They trailed going into the fourth quarter. Poor shooting doomed the Mavericks in the 4Q and losing Porzingis to injury didn’t help matters. But at home, you’ve got to expect they’ll shoot better than 43.9% (including just 12 of 41 from 3-pt range) as they did on Sunday. The combo of Hardaway Jr, Finney-Smith and Brunson combined for 69 points last time out. Like I’ve said before, it also seems as if SOMEONE steps up in these situations. Minnesota has been a road favorite only one time previous to this all season. 10* Dallas | |||||||
12-21-21 | Seahawks v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
8* LA Rams (7:00 ET): Coming off their biggest win of the season - last Monday’s 30-23 triumph at Arizona - the Rams were thrown into disarray with 25 players having to be put into COVID-19 protocol as of Thursday. That resulted in this game with the Seahawks being pushed back until Tuesday. While it may seem risky to still lay points with Los Angeles in this spot, they’ll still have QB Matthew Stafford on the field tonight and I simply feel they are still much better than the 5-8 Seahawks, whom they defeated 26-17 back in Week 5 on a Thursday night. I took the Rams then and will play them again in the rematch. Russell Wilson’s return to the Seattle lineup has resulted in B2B wins, 30-23 over San Francisco and 33-13 over Houston. But this is not a good Seahawks team. They rank dead last in the league in yards per game allowed, making it almost improbable that they somehow have allowed the fifth fewest points. The offense is 28th in the league in yards gained and Wilson may not have WR Tyler Lockett (COVID) available to throw to. While Seattle has put up 30+ points in B2B games, let’s not forget how pathetic the offense had looked (even with Wilson back) in the three prior games. The Rams’ offense is first in the league in yards per play (6.2), fourth in scoring (28.2 PPG) and has scored 28 or more in six of the last eight games. Other than TE Higbee, it looks like HC Sean McVay will have his full complement of players on that side of the ball. Remember the Rams were short-handed when they went into Arizona and won last week. I consider them one of the top teams in the league and they’ve covered 23 of the last 35 conference games. 8* LA Rams | |||||||
12-21-21 | Albany v. Lehigh -3.5 | Top | 68-52 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* Lehigh (7:00 ET): It’s not been a positive start to the season for Lehigh as the Mountain Hawks have just one win, which came back on Nov 23 against Colombia. Yet they are still the favorites here, which should tell you all you “need to know” about Albany. Now Lehigh has failed each of their last four tries as chalk, losing three of those games outright. But I look for this one to “be the charm” as they’ve been off for 17 days while Albany just played on Saturday. Lay the points. Albany has not exactly been a “cash-cow” by any means. They are just 3-8 ATS, not to mention 3-8 straight up as well. The Great Danes just lost 66-58 to Niagara as 5.5 point dogs. That followed two wins, both of which were by four points or less. In fact, the team’s three wins this year have been by a total of just seven points! So this could pretty easily be an 0-11 team coming into tonight. They have just one road win all year. When breaking this matchup down, I simply *have* to come back to the massive edge in rest that Lehigh has. Since the Mountain Hawks last played, Albany has been on the court four different times, three of those coming over the previous 10 days. Scoring has been a real problem all season for the Great Danes, even more so than for Lehigh, as the visitors come in averaging a paltry 57.8 PPG on the season and even fewer than that over the L5 games. 10* Lehigh | |||||||
12-21-21 | Wyoming v. Kent State +3.5 | Top | 52-38 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
10* Kent State (3:30 ET): After a 1-3 SU start to the season (all three losses to P5 teams), Kent State was able to “dust itself off” and win the MAC East with a 6-2 conference record. They were favored in the Conference Championship Game over Northern Illinois (by 3.5) but were outclassed in that contest, almost from the start, and ended up losing 41-23. Thus the Golden Flashes’ landing spot for the bowls is in Boise, ID for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, an annual battle between the MAC and Mountain West. With just one bowl win in program history (2019), it’s not like Kent State won’t be motivated here. Wyoming’s season got off to a great start as they were 4-0 heading into October with a win over MAC Champion Northern Illinois. But the Cowboys really sputtered down the stretch, losing six of their last eight games (though they did defeat eventual MWC Champ Utah State). It should be noted that the Pokes were favored only twice over those last eight games, both times by double digits, and on each occasion they lost outright. One of those losses was to lowly New Mexico. (The other was the regular season finale vs. Hawaii). Overall, Wyoming was just 1-4-1 ATS as chalk during the regular season. They barely beat Montana State (FCS) and UConn, winning those games by a FG or less. People may point to the fact Wyoming is 2-0 vs. the MAC in 2021 and also defeated its own conference champ in the regular season. But Kent State plus the points seems like the right call here. Should be noted that the Golden Flashes also beat Northern Illinois in the regular season. The rematch in the MAC Championship was their lowest scoring effort in conference play all season. This team comes in averaging 32.6 PPG (compared to just 23.2 for Wyoming). With offense being the key in these early bowl games, I see the underdog having the edge here. They are 8-2 ATS their L10 games off an ATS loss. 10* Kent State | |||||||
12-20-21 | Hornets v. Jazz -12 | Top | 102-112 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
8* Utah (9:05 ET): The Jazz have now suffered back to back upset losses here at home, first to the Spurs (128-126) and then to the Wizards (109-103). Those games took place Friday and Saturday. I faded them against the Wizards as it was a large spread in the second night of a back to back. Still, it was a bit shocking to see the Jazz lose the game outright. This is a team that had previously won eight in a row before the B2B setbacks. They rank 1st overall in my power ratings, having outscored opponents by 10.5 points per game this season. Look for a strong statement to be made Monday against a road-weary opponent. Charlotte finds itself in the same situation Utah was in Saturday, that being the second game of a back to back. The only difference is that the Hornets are on the road. It’s not “just” the second night of a back to back either; it’s also the team’s fifth consecutive road game and third in four days. Of the Hornets’ first 32 games, 20 have come away from home where they are giving up 119.3 PPG. It was a blowout loss last night in Phoenix, 137-106, as the team has allowed an average of 124 points its last five games. For the season, Charlotte ranks dead last in the league in defensive efficiency and points allowed. That’s a problem when facing a Utah team that is #1 in offensive efficiency and points scored. Talk about a mismatch. The Jazz rested PG Mike Conley against the Wizards, which partially explains the loss. He’ll be back on the floor tonight and the team should shoot a lot better than it did on Saturday. The Jazz are 20-6 SU this season with Conley in the lineup. While this is a larger number than I typically lay in a NBA game, Charlotte is 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS when playing without rest and going from Phoenix to Utah is the toughest spot they’re likely to be in all season. Lay the number. 8* Utah | |||||||
12-20-21 | Western Michigan v. Notre Dame -20.5 | Top | 52-85 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
8* Notre Dame (8:00 ET): The Fighting Irish have not had much luck at the betting window this season (just 1-7 ATS), but a recent upset of Kentucky (lone ATS win) shows what they are capable of doing. The Irish gave a rude welcome to UK here in South Bend, winning 66-62 as a 4.5-point underdog. Sadly, they couldn’t follow up, losing 64-56 to Indiana (in Indianapolis) in the Crossroads Classic. But that was a close game most of the way and the final score wasn’t really indicative of how ND played. A much easier opponent here should result in a big win on Monday. Lay the points. Western Michigan has the same number of wins (4) as Notre Dame, but two of their wins have been against non-DI opponents, including the last game - a 67-56 win over Aquinas. The other two were against teams ranked outside the top 250 in my power ratings. Seemingly even more pertinent is the fact that all six of the Broncos’ losses have been by double digits and by an average of 25 PPG. They were absolutely hammered in losses to Michigan State (90-46) and Iowa (109-61), which isn’t all that surprising. But even the likes of Detroit (83-64) and Saginaw Valley (80-63) were able to hammer them. Saginaw Valley isn’t even a D-I school! Notre Dame has struggled to make shots this season, but that should change here against a WMU team that is one of the worst in the country defensively. The Broncos are 343rd in the country (out of 358 teams) in defensive efficiency. With ACC play looming, the Fighting Irish could really use a big win here and then Wednesday over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. I think they’ll take care of business tonight as the three-pointers will start to fall against a team that struggles to defend from behind the arc. ND only allows 58.3 PPG at home. WMU allows 86.8 PPG on the road. 8* Notre Dame | |||||||
12-20-21 | Raiders v. Browns -3 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 4 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (5:00 ET): This game was originally scheduled for Saturday, but a COVID-19 outbreak within the Browns organization pushed it back 48 hours. There are obviously some key players missing for Cleveland, not to mention HC Kevin Stefanski, but I still see them beating Las Vegas at home. Both these teams are desperate for a win to remain relevant in the AFC playoff hunt, but I’ve got little faith in a Raiders team that has been outscored by 77 points this year, the 4th worst differential in the conference. Lay the points. Las Vegas is coming off an ugly 48-9 loss to Kansas City, which was the second time in four weeks they got blown out by the Chiefs. Those two losses obviously had a major impact on the aforementioned point differential, but the Silver and Black have also dropped five of their last six overall. The only win came on Thanksgiving Day, in overtime, against the Cowboys. That win was the only time in the last six games that the offense was able to score more than 16 points. In more than half their games this season, the Raiders have been held to 16 or less. Third stringer Nick Mullens is likely to be the Browns’ starting QB in this one. From 2018-20, Mullens made 16 starts for the 49ers, so he’s not “new to this.” I don’t think that the Cleveland offense is going to need to put up many points here. The Browns’ defense has allowed 16 points or less in over half of its games this season and held the Ravens out of the end zone for three quarters last week. I already mentioned the Raiders’ offensive woes. Obviously, all the absences must be accounted for, but with the game being pushed back hopefully some of those Browns players that tested positive can return. I’m not a huge Baker Mayfield fan to begin with, so I don’t think he’ll be all that missed. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
12-20-21 | Valencia v. Levante | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
7* Levante (3:00 ET): Poor Levante. The Frogs are still winless this season and at the foot of the La Liga table (in last place) with only eight points taken from their first 17 matches. They are seven points adrift of safety (meaning getting out of the relegation zone), so wins are desperately needed at this point. But with more than half (9 of 17) of Levante’s results this season ending up as draws, I thought it would be a wise move to play them on the goal line. Underlying metrics suggest Levante should be much higher in the table as they actually rank 13th in xPts (22.08) with the number of goals conceded seemingly being a very unlucky number. Now the opposition is in good form as Valencia is undefeated in eight straight across all competitions, including victories in each of the last four. That includes a couple wins this month in the Copa del Rey. Los Che currently sit 8th in the La Liga table, only four points behind fourth place Atletico Madrid. But this side has been a bit lucky throughout the campaign. Not just in a 2-1 win over Elche last week (where they lost the possession battle), but also coming from behind to beat Celta Vigo by the same scoreline two weeks ago. There was also a crazy draw with Atletico earlier in the season where Valencia was able to rally back from a two-goal deficit. On the flip side, Levante seemed a bit unlucky to end up with a 4-3 loss to Espanyol last week. Twice the Frogs blew a one-goal advantage. That they’ve yet to win since a managerial change is a bit surprising as typically there is a “bounce” after such a move is made. Note that three of Valencia’s last five results in La Liga have been draws and they lost the corresponding fixture here in Levante 1-0 last season. I have a “feeling” that it’s time for the hosts to pick up their first win of the season, but the GL protects us in case of a draw. 7* Levante | |||||||
12-20-21 | Tulsa -8.5 v. Old Dominion | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
8* Tulsa (2:30 ET): Monday in Myrtle Beach is hardly the most “ideal” bowl destination, but both Tulsa and Old Dominion WANT to be here and not just because of the weather. Both teams finished the regular season strong; Tulsa with a three-game win streak and ODU with a five-game SU and ATS win streak. Those respective win streaks got both teams to 6-6 on the year, so making a bowl was clearly important to them. But while the finishes to the regular season may have been similar, I see a significant gap in talent between the two sides and will be laying the points with Tulsa. Now underdogs (and Overs) have clearly been the way to go so far in these early bowl matchups. But expect this one to be different, at least as far as the pointspread is concerned. Tulsa has outscored their opponents 98-54 during the three-game win streak. Four of their six losses this year came to Top 25 teams, including Ohio State and Oklahoma State, the latter of which they led (on the road!) in the 4Q. While it was somewhat of a disappointing regular season for the Golden Hurricane, after rallying to beat SMU 34-31 in the regular season finale, there’s no better way to cap things than with the program’s 1st bowl win since 2016. I do have to give credit to ODU for how they finished the regular season. But at one time, this was a 1-6 SU football team that looked to be going “nowhere fast.” Their five-game win streak saw them beat La Tech, FIU, Fla Atlantic, Middle Tennessee and Charlotte. Of that quintet of opponents, only one made a bowl (Middle Tennessee) and they were also a 6-6 team in the regular season. The Monarchs have no other wins over bowl eligible teams this season. Their run defense put up good numbers, but will struggle to stop Tulsa RB Shamari Brooks, who has more than 3600 rush yards in his career. 8* Tulsa | |||||||
12-19-21 | Mavs v. Wolves -3.5 | Top | 105-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
8* Minnesota (8:05 ET): The Timberwolves have made the playoffs just one time since 2004 (when Kevin Garnett skipped town!) and that was four years ago when they made a first round exit. The Western Conference is shaping up to be pretty weak this season (at least much weaker than usual) and with the play-in round now “being a thing,” 2021-22 seems like a real opportunity for the T’wolves to get into the postseason. They enter Sunday with a 14-15 SU record, good enough for ninth place in the Conference. While still a game below .500, the T’wolves have won three straight. They’ve beaten the Nuggets, Blazers and Lakers, all of whom were playoff teams a year ago. Friday was a somewhat convincing 110-92 win over the Lakers here at home. The Lakers were dealing with plenty of COVID-related absences, but still had LeBron James. Taking advantage of Anthony Davis’ absence, Minnesota dominated on the glass with a 61-36 rebounding edge, including 15-1 at the offensive end. The Mavericks’ last game was a loss to the Lakers (in overtime). They will again be without Luka Doncic tonight as well as several other players because of COVID. The Mavs just really haven’t impressed me this year and are deserved underdogs in this game. Only three teams - OKC, Orlando and Detroit - are averaging fewer points per game. Karl-Anthony Towns (24.0 PPG, 9.0 RPG) will be the best player in this game and he’s wearing a T’wolves jersey. 8* Minnesota | |||||||
12-19-21 | Spurs v. Kings +4.5 | Top | 114-121 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (6:05 ET): Off a huge win in Utah Friday night, San Antonio looks for just their second win streak of the season tonight in the capital city of California. From November 26th through December 4th, the Spurs won four consecutive games. But, as I just alluded to, that is their lone win streak of the season. At no other point have they won consecutive games. They’ve followed up recent wins over Denver and New Orleans with double digit losses to Denver and Charlotte. I’ll look for “usual form” to hold here as this is a rare time that the Spurs are favored on the road. Take the points. Sacramento is actually one game ahead of San Antonio in the Western Conference standings. This despite the Kings losing four of their previous five games, including a 124-105 setback at the hands of red-hot Memphis on Friday night. While playing extremely short-handed right now (COVID), Sacramento did open up a 15-point lead over the Grizzlies in the first half. They just couldn’t hold it, even though all five starters finished in double figures. The Spurs only have five road wins all year and tonight marks just the third time they will be favored away from home. Most will look at the Kings as “sitting ducks” here due to the abundance of unavailable players and their head coach also being out. But I don’t agree with them getting more than a couple points in this situation. San Antonio only won by two on Friday and has been outscored this season. Recently, we’ve seen a lot of short-handed teams win in the NBA. 8* Sacramento | |||||||
12-19-21 | Packers v. Ravens +7 | Top | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (4:25 ET): It is looking like a near certainty that Tyler Huntley will be the starting QB here for the Ravens. Lamar Jackson suffered a sprained ankle in last week’s 24-22 loss to the Browns and hasn’t practiced all week. While the loss of Jackson may make Baltimore a “less attractive option” in the minds of many bettors, I am seeing value here on the Ravens as a home dog. Huntley very nearly led his team back from a 24-6 halftime deficit last week. He also guided a 16-13 win at Chicago earlier in the season. Take the points! Now Green Bay is the top ATS team in the league. They’ve covered 11 of 13 games this year, including a come from behind effort last week against Chicago. Things were not looking good for Packers’ bettors early on last Sunday night as the team trailed at halftime. But they stormed back to win 45-30 and improbably cover the double digit spread. That was at Lambeau though. All three Packers’ losses this season have come on the road - where their scoring average dips to 20.6 PPG. Now GB’s road numbers are a little skewed due to a Week 1 loss to the Saints (an outlier performance) and the game they played at Kansas City without Aaron Rodgers. That being said, this is too many points for them to be laying here. This line is a classic overreaction to Jackson’s absence. Jackson is a great player, but the Ravens also have a great defense and special teams. John Harbaugh is 9-3 ATS his L12 games as a home underdog with eight outright wins. Baltimore is also 3-0 ATS as ‘dogs this season. Almost all of their games end up close with five of the last six decided by six points or less. Only two teams in history have ever started a NFL season 12-2 ATS. 10* Baltimore | |||||||
12-19-21 | Colgate +3.5 v. Monmouth | Top | 66-77 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 43 m | Show |
10* Colgate (2:00 ET): Here we go back to the well, playing against Monmouth. The Hawks are a positively stunning 11-0 ATS this season. They are obviously the top spread team in the country. Perhaps most impressive of all is that Monmouth is coming off a six-game stretch on the road where they went 5-1 straight up. They are 9-2 SU on the year, despite playing only two home games. But I view Sunday as a “tricky” spot for the favorites, who have been underdogs in most of their games this season. Take the points! Colgate has not been nearly as successful as Monmouth at the betting window. The Raiders are 1-5 SU and ATS their last six games and coming off an 82-64 loss at St. John’s last Sunday. A full week to prepare for this game should help, however. When comparing these two teams’ ATS records, something to be aware of is the fact Colgate has been favored in more games this season. This will be only the 4th time that Colgate has been taking points. They covered the first two times, including an outright win (as 11.5-pt dogs) at Syracuse. Last Sunday’s loss to St. John’s was the only time the Raiders didn’t cover as pups. Monmouth has played a lot of close games. Eventually, one of them has to not go their way, at least at the pay window. Having played six straight road games over the L3 weeks is something that you have to figure “catches up with them” at some point. The Hawks have failed to score 70 points in four of their last six games. As an underdog, that’s not a problem. But this will be just the third time that Monmouth is favored by more than three points. 10* Colgate | |||||||
12-19-21 | Texans v. Jaguars -4.5 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
9* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Urban Meyer’s firing had an interesting effect on this number as the Jaguars are now bigger favorites to beat the Texans without their disgraced former head coach. My view is that the Jags are going to come out highly motivated to win this game. Certainly they can’t be any worse than they were under Meyer, whose NFL coaching career will end with a 2-11 WL record. For this first game without Meyer, the Jags probably couldn’t have asked for a more ideal opponent. I’m laying the points! There are two teams that I have rated lower than Jacksonville in my own personal power ratings. One of them is the opponent here (the other is the Jets). Houston has a worse point differential than Jacksonville and the same 2-11 SU record. David Culley just feels like a lame-duck coach this season for the Texans, who are down to Davis Mills at QB. The team is 0-7 SU with Mills as the starter after losing 33-13 last week at home to Seattle. The Texans actually struck first in that game and then were thoroughly dominated after that. This is a revenge spot for Jacksonville, who lost 37-21 in Houston back in Week 1. It was their seventh straight loss to the Texans, which is quite embarrassing. It’s interesting to note that the Jaguars were favored in the Week 1 matchup. While that proved to be a “bad line,” it looks like we’re getting a bargain on them at home here. Houston has won just once since Week 1. You’ve got to believe the Jaguars’ players will want to win for interim HC Darrell Bevell to prove a point that they are better without Meyer. From the revenge angle to the new coach, lots of motivation here for the home side. 9* Jacksonville | |||||||
12-18-21 | Wizards +11.5 v. Jazz | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* Washington (9:05 ET): Utah is very clearly one of the top teams in the NBA right now. I’ve got them rated second in my own personal power rankings, only behind Golden State. But the team that finished first in the Western Conference a season ago saw its eight-game win streak come to an end last night with a 128-126 loss to San Antonio. Now the Jazz must immediately turn around and face the Wizards and they are being asked to lay a big number in the process. I’ll take the points in this one. Washington is clearly struggling right now as they’ve won just one of their last eight contests and that was by only three points, in overtime, against a terrible Detroit team. The Wiz did not cover the spread in that win, nor have they covered in any of their last seven losses. But this is still a .500 team (15-15 SU) that’s tied for seventh in the Eastern Conference. You’ve got to figure they’re going to be desperate for a win tonight and while they may not get it, keeping this one within single digits certainly seems like a reasonable goal. The situation clearly favors Washington as they were off last night. Now they were blown out, in Phoenix, two nights ago (lost 118-98 as nine-point dogs). But this season has seen the Wizards go 6-2 ATS when off a game where they failed to score 100 points. They are also 19-8 ATS in that very situation the L3 seasons. While the Wiz were blown out by 25 at home by the Jazz last week, they did beat them in BOTH meetings last season. 10* Washington | |||||||
12-18-21 | Patriots v. Colts -2 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* Indianapolis (8:20 ET): Two of the hottest teams in football meet Saturday night and both are coming off byes. I don’t think there’s any denying that the Colts are better than their 7-6 SU overall record. The team ranks seventh in the league in point differential, having outscored the opposition by 88 points. Now I am well aware that New England is not only #1 in the league in that department (+150 point differential), but is also on a 7-0 SU/ATS win streak. But the Colts have been a favorite of “sharp bettors” all season and this is a case where it’s right to fade what is likely to be a very “public dog” (that being the Patriots). Remember that Indianapolis started the year at 0-3 SU. Since then, they’ve gone 7-3 with two of the losses coming in overtime (both after blowing big leads) and the other coming by only seven points to the Super Bowl Champion Buccaneers. Still fresh in everyone’s mind is New England’s win at Buffalo two weeks ago where QB Mac Jones only attempted three passes due to insanely windy conditions. But don’t forget that the Colts went to Buffalo a few weeks ago and absolutely trounced the Bills, 41-15 (as a seven-point underdog). As good as the Patriots have looked over the last two months, you’ve got to figure they are “due” to drop at least one game down the stretch. Looking at the remaining four games, this and next week’s home date with Buffalo are easily the two toughest matchups Bill Belichick’s team has left. New England is 6-0 SU on the road this year, but three of those wins came by four points or less. This game means A LOT more to the Colts, who trail the Titans by two games in the AFC South and really cannot afford another loss. The last time we saw them, they beat the Texans 31-0 and allowed only 141 total yards. The Texans are admittedly a horrible team, but a Colts offense (led by RB Taylor) that has struck for 30 or more points in seven of the last eight games will test this Patriots’ defense. 10* Indianapolis | |||||||
12-18-21 | Buffalo v. Canisius +15.5 | Top | 64-65 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
10* Canisius (5:00 ET): Canisius is just 2-9 straight up entering this game, but it’s notable that they are getting double digits here. The reason that’s notable is because the only two games the Golden Griffins have covered this season came as DD dogs. Those covers came at Miami (FL) and St. Bonaventure. This evening marks the first time all season that Canisius is a DD dog at home. They are 0-7 ATS L7 lined games and 0-8 ATS overall this season when NOT getting double digits. But due to the poor ATS record, the oddsmakers are being too generous here. Take the points. The team Canisius is hosting, Buffalo, is 6-1 ATS and has just one loss by more than three points (and that was to Michigan). But off a 10-day layoff, the Bulls could be prone for a letdown Saturday afternoon. Prior to the extended time off, UB pulled a minor upset, going to Western Kentucky and winning 77-67 as a three-point dog. Tonight marks the first time that the Bulls are laying points in a “true” road game. Previously, they were favored at neutral sites against SF Austin St (and lost outright) and Illinois State (covered, but also allowed 90 points). I realize that, on paper, Buffalo looks to have a rather sizable edge in this matchup. But again, don’t discount the fact that this is a large spread for the Bulls to be laying after such an extended layoff. They are just 3-3 SU away from home this season. This is a local rivalry, which likely means more to Canisius, who has beaten Buffalo just one time since 2014. But none of the previous six meetings were decided by more than 15 points and two of the games went into overtime. 10* Canisius | |||||||
12-18-21 | UAB +7 v. BYU | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 90 h 16 m | Show |
8* UAB (3:30 ET): I think a lot of people may get caught up in the fact that BYU is ranked #13 in the country. But that ranking is a little generous to say the least. In all due respect to the contingent from Provo, I don’t consider the Cougars to be among the top 40 teams in the country! The SP+ rankings agree with me and also actually have BYU’s Independence Day Bowl opponent, UAB, rated higher! I’m not quite as high on the Blazers, who were champions of C-USA last season, but I do believe they are a live dog and capable of pulling the outright upset here. Take the points. UAB is no stranger to bowl games as this will be their fourth consecutive season in one. Remember that the football program did not exist the two years prior! Looking at this past regular season, the Blazers very nearly defeated UTSA (who was undefeated at the time) and finished 8-4 SU overall. One of the losses was to Georgia. Their defense is really strong, giving up only 22.4 PPG.and it allowed 14 points or less on five different occasions. It’s hard to run on UAB as they give up only 104 rush yards per game. Much will be made of the fact that BYU went 5-0 SU against the Pac 12 during the regular season, including a 26-17 win over Rose Bowl participant Utah (early in the year). But two of those five wins were by four points or less. The Cougars were a little lucky in 2021 to go 4-0 SU in one-score games. UAB has a great running back in DeWayne McBride, but look for the defense is going to keep them in this one. The Blazers have covered four straight and six of their last seven games. 8* UAB | |||||||
12-18-21 | UTEP v. Fresno State -11 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 55 m | Show |
10* Fresno State (2:15 ET): I know that there won’t be a lack of motivation with UTEP, who is making its first bowl appearance since 2014. The Miners have been quite the story here in 2021, going 7-5, just their second winning season since 2005! They won only five games total in Dana Dimel’s first three seasons here and were 0-12 the year before his arrival. But of the 80 teams playing in bowls this year, UTEP is my lowest rated. Not only are they 0-5 SU/ATS L5 bowl appearances, but they went 1-4 SU/ATS vs. bowl teams this season with three of those losses coming by 17 points or more. I just don’t “see it” with this team. Now Fresno State does have some issues heading into the New Mexico Bowl, which is probably why the Bulldogs aren’t as large of a favorite here as my power ratings say they ought to be. After not making the Mountain West Conference Championship, they saw HC Kalen DeBoer bolt for the Washington job. Initially, it looked as if QB Jake Haener was going to follow DeBoer, but Haener changed his mind and withdrew from the transfer portal. But he may not get the start Saturday. Interim HC Lee Marks (who was the RB coach under DeBoer) has been “mum” on who the starting QB will be here. I think the uncertainty over who will start at QB for Fresno State will end up benefiting the Bulldogs. They obviously know who the starter is. But UTEP is “in the dark.” FSU defeated its final two regular season opponents by a combined score of 74-16. They have wins over San Diego State and UCLA and only lost by seven at Oregon. While we aren’t sure what (or who) we’re getting at QB, we do know the Bulldogs’ run defense gives up just 127 yards per game and that the offensive line is very good. UTEP’s offense relies heavily on “the big play” and I don’t see them making enough of those here. 10* Fresno State | |||||||
12-18-21 | Pittsburgh v. St. John's -13.5 | Top | 59-57 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 49 m | Show |
8* St. John’s (12:00 ET): The Johnnies snapped a six-game ATS losing streak last Sunday, beating Colgate 82-64 as 7.5-point home chalk. They allowed just 29 points in the 2H, which was Colgate’s season-low for a half. But it’s the offense that usually makes the headlines for the Red Storm. Led by Julian Champagnie, the team comes in averaging 85.2 PPG and that number is way too much for an offensively inept Pitt team to compete here. I’m laying the points in this matchup of former conference rivals. These programs have not met since 2012-13, when Pitt left the Big East for the ACC. St. John’s probably wishes they could face Pitt more often, at least in recent times. Going back to last year, the Panthers are just 5-15 SU their L20 games. That includes a 3-7 start to this season as they’ve suffered double digit losses to the likes of The Citadel and UMBC. Last time out, the Panthers fell at home to Monmouth, 56-52 as a 1-point home dog. They trailed in that game by as many as 17 points. With the start of conference play looming, normally I might be a bit “gun-shy” about laying so many points. But St. John’s full focus will be on this game after it was announced Monday’s Big East opener (vs. Seton Hall) has been cancelled due to COVID (outbreak is with SH) and the Red Storm will be awarded a win via forfeit! The Red Storm are simply too strong at the offensive end for a team like Pitt that is last in the ACC in both scoring (60.5 PPG) and FG% (41.7). St. John’s likes to play fast (9th in adjusted tempo), which is also a problem for Pitt. 8* St. John’s | |||||||
12-17-21 | Grizzlies v. Kings +4 | Top | 124-105 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
10* Sacramento (10:05 ET): The Kings pulled off a much-needed win on Wednesday, beating the slumping Wizards by a score of 119-105. Sacramento shot better than they have in awhile, making 54.9% of their FG attempts. Despite being short-handed and without their coach (COVID protocols), the Kings used a big 4Q (outscored the Wiz 35-19) to pull away. There is a concern that this game may not get played due to the Kings’ COVID outbreak. But if it is played, I like them plus the points. I have been positively STUNNED over how Memphis has played without Ja Morant. They’ve won 9 of 10 games without their superstar. On Wednesday, the Grizzlies went to Portland and held the Blazers to 37.8% shooting in a 113-103 win. Their first game without Morant was, ironically enough, against Sacramento. The Grizz won 128-101 as a four-point favorite, but that was at home. The Kings were also coming off a triple overtime win over the Lakers, so it was a bad spot. Certainly, I acknowledge that the COVID outbreak doesn’t exactly make this the most desirable spot to take Sacramento. But they are at home where they’ve won three straight and - generally speaking - are a much better team. Memphis, despite a 7-5 SU record on the road, has been outscored in those games. I just can’t see them continuing to win like this without Morant. The Kings had a horrible shooting night when they last faced Memphis. Expect them to shoot a whole lot better tonight. 10* Sacramento | |||||||
12-17-21 | St. Mary's v. San Diego State +1.5 | Top | 53-63 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
10* San Diego State (10:00 ET): Let’s head to the West Coast for tonight’s 10* offering. This game between St. Mary’s and San Diego State is being played in Phoenix, AZ as part of the Jerry Colangelo Classic. I like the spot for SDSU; not just because they’re getting points, but also because they come in well-rested. The last time they took the court was 12/8 when they defeated CS-Fullerton by a score of 66-56. These are two defensive-minded teams. St. Mary’s gives up only 57.6 PPG while SDSU isn’t too far behind that, allowing only 59.2 PPG. The Aztecs have lost only three times this season - to BYU, USC and Michigan. All three of those teams have spent time in the Top 25 this year. I just don’t see St. Mary’s as being quite at that level. Something to keep in mind is that the defensive numbers would be even more even if you exclude the Gaels holding Stanislaus State, a non-board team, to 39 points on Tuesday. St. Mary’s has actually played two games since SDSU last took the court. Besides beating up on a “little guy” earlier this week, the Gaels also crushed UCSB 80-59 last weekend. But that was at home. Note the previous two games, both on the road, saw SMU struggle. They barely got by Utah State (won by 2) and then lost by 16 to Colorado State. Notable is that both of those teams hail from the Mountain West. I look for the Aztecs to win a low-scoring game on Friday. 10* San Diego State | |||||||
12-17-21 | Richmond v. NC State +2.5 | Top | 83-74 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 33 m | Show |
8* NC State (6:30 ET): This is a neutral site game, being played in Charlotte, NC. Taking a look at NC State, whose three losses have been to Oklahoma State, Louisville and Purdue, I’m not sure they should be the underdog here. I realize they are just 2-8 ATS, but the Wolfpack have gone off as the favorite for most of those games. They are 1-6 ATS as a favorite so far this season, including 0-6 when laying seven or more. But this time, we don’t have to worry about laying any points, do we? Richmond is on a three-game win streak, having beaten Wofford, Northern Iowa and Toledo. Prior to that though, the Spiders had lost four of six. It was a narrow win on Sunday at home over Toledo, 72-69, where the Spiders did not cover the 9.5-point spread. In fact, they scored a season-low 24 points in the 1st half and found themselves trailing by 17! Honestly, I have no idea how Richmond was able to come back and win that game. As for NC State, they took Purdue to OT on Sunday. It was a crushing defeat considering the Wolfpack never trailed in regulation to a team that was ranked #1 in the country at the time. NC State’s only other two losses were both by six points or less, so they’ve really yet to play a “bad game” all season. This despite not shooting the ball all that well. But the Wolfpack are top five in the country in FT attempts (23.9 per game) and are an excellent offensive rebounding team. Considering that NC State probably should have won its last game while Richmond should have probably lost theirs, I’ll call for things to “even out” here on Friday. Take the points. 8* NC State | |||||||
12-16-21 | Chiefs v. Chargers +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -101 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (8:20 ET): A win tonight would give the Chargers a season sweep of the Chiefs and thus a “leg up” in the race for the division title. A Chargers win would also mean both teams are 9-5 SU. So you can see how important this one is. Either LA falls two games back with a split of the season series, or they are even with a season sweep. I know that the Chiefs - 6-0 SU L6 games and 4-0 ATS L4 - have been playing well of late. But so have the Chargers, who have scored 37 or more points in three of the last four games. Those offensive numbers will certainly be tested tonight by a Chiefs defense that has allowed exactly nine points in three consecutive games. But KC has not exactly been facing the top offensive teams during this stretch. Twice they’ve beaten the Raiders and other wins came against the Broncos, Giants and Rodgers-less Packers. Holding Dallas to just nine points WAS impressive. But I can’t see a similar defensive effort taking place against these Chargers, which has Justin Herbert and two receivers that will go over 1,000 yards this season. The Chiefs are surprisingly still being outgained this season on a per play basis. While it was back in Week 3 and Kansas City turned it over four times, the Chargers scored 30 in the first meeting and that was when they weren’t playing as well. The Chargers’ last three wins have been by an average of 13 PPG, but even that’s misleading as they led by as many as 17, 24 and 30 in those respective games. LA is 4-1 ATS its L5 games as a dog. 10* LA Chargers | |||||||
12-16-21 | Alcorn State v. Tulsa -13.5 | Top | 62-83 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
8* Tulsa (8:00 ET): What a strange season it’s been so far for Alcorn State. The Braves are 1-8 straight up but 8-1 against the spread. So while they're losing, it’s almost never by as much as the oddsmakers anticipate. I think that interesting dichotomy ends tonight with a visit to Tulsa. Note that there have been only two spreads shorter than this one in Alcorn State games this season. One of those was the lone game they failed to cover, an 85-64 loss at Tulane as 13-point underdogs. By the way, this will also be the 10th consecutive “true” road game for Alcorn State and they aren’t even close to being done with their “travels.” Alcorn State’s last three games have resulted in losses by 21, 32 and 19 points. So they’re losing by an average of 24 PPG. The alma mater of the late, great Steve “Air” McNair averages only 60 PPG and they haven’t topped 64 in any of their last eight contests. In terms of efficiency, they are in the bottom 30 in the country at the offensive end. Earlier, I mentioned the cacophony of road games that the Braves have been playing this season. They’ve still got SIX more to go after this one, including a visit to #1 Baylor next Monday, which may have the player’s attention more so than this game does. Tulsa isn’t going to pass up this opportunity to beat up on a road-weary opponent. The Golden Hurricane just ended a three-game losing streak last Saturday, beating Southern Illinois 69-65 as a three-point favorite. I know there have been some disappointing showings as a favorite previously, but Tulsa also has pulled upset wins over Oregon State and Rhode Island. They hold teams to a very respectable average (63.3 PPG) here at home and with Alcorn State shooting just 38.0% on the year, I feel that this is going to be one of the Golden Hurricane’s better defensive efforts all season. Thus, lay the points. 8* Tulsa | |||||||
12-15-21 | Pacers -2 v. Bucks | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
8* Indiana (8:00 ET): The Pacers need this game more than the Bucks. Indiana (despite a positive point differential for the year) currently sits in 13th place in the East with a 12-15 overall record. There are six teams ahead of them with worse YTD point differentials. A case can definitely be made that the Pacers "ought" to be higher in the standings right now. Milwaukee is doing well (18-11, 3rd in the East) but they will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo tonight (COVID-19). Giannis isn't the only unavailable player. Six Bucks players have been ruled out for this game and that doesn't even include Kris Middleton (knee), who is listed as questionable. It's going to be a real "skeleton crew" out there tonight for the Bucks. This just seems like the perfect opportunity for Indiana to end its 0-6 ATS run in Milwaukee? 8* Indiana | |||||||
12-14-21 | Suns v. Blazers +3.5 | Top | 111-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): This game is on TNT. Phoenix comes in off a loss, just its second in the last 22 games, as they fell 111-95 at the Clippers last night. It should be noted that it was also the Suns’ second loss in the last four games (after a franchise-record 18-game win streak) and second straight loss on the road. (They were beaten 118-96 at Golden State on 12/3). The Suns should obviously be respected, but I think they’re “due” to drop another one tonight in Portland. It should be noted that the loss to the Warriors was the last time Phoenix found itself in the second night of a back to back. The same situation is a whole lot worse tonight because the team is without both Devin Booker and DeAndre Ayton. Without rest, the Suns have NOT performed well this season, going 1-4 ATS and being outscored by 7.6 PPG. While the Suns are a top three team in my power ratings, I don’t think they’re quite as good as either the Warriors or Jazz. Point differential & net efficiency backs my assertion up, so look for the Suns to fall behind those two aforementioned Western Conference powers in the coming days/weeks. The Blazers are hoping to avoid what would be a fifth consecutive home loss here. Such a streak is rather odd considering they were 10-1 SU to start the year at the Moda Center. Damian Lillard is back and had 24 points with a season-high 11 rebounds in Sunday’s 116-111 loss to Minnesota. I expect Lillard to shoot better tonight than he did vs. the T’wolves (5 of 17). But the most convincing thing here about Portland is that they’ve already wiped the court with Phoenix once this season, winning 134-105 back on Oct 23rd. That was here at home. It won’t be that lopsided this time, but take the points. 10* Portland | |||||||
12-14-21 | UL - Lafayette v. Houston -21 | Top | 56-71 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:00 ET): The 14th ranked Cougars are coming off a one-point loss at Alabama (who is now the #6 ranked team in the country), but I still believe Kelvin Sampson’s team to be one of the finest in the entire country. Remember that this was a Final Four team last season. My power ratings still consider them to be a top four team right now. Houston’s only two losses have been by a combined three points and it could certainly be argued they were the victim of a bad call in Tuscaloosa Saturday night. On the final possession, it looked as if Alabama got away with goaltending. So now the Cougars return home to face Louisiana. Expect them to take no mercy on their visitors. The Ragin Cajuns enter this game with a 5-4 SU record and are also off a loss, 78-69 to Louisiana Tech. That loss came despite a career game from Jordan Brown (30 points) and La Tech shooting just 19% from three-point range. I think it also bears mentioning that Louisiana lost outright (as a 14.5-point favorite) earlier in the year to Jackson State. They’ve been outscored by an average of 18.3 points in the L3 road games and none of those three opponents were as strong as this one is. Look for Houston to feast off turnovers in this game. The defense forces a TO on 25.2% of all possessions, which is top 25 in the country. Meanwhile, Louisiana is among the sloppiest teams in the country, turning it over on 22 percent of all offensive possessions. The Cougars are 6-0 SU at home, winning by an average of 33.5 PPG. Off the loss to Alabama, where they shot poorly, Houston will have a “take no prisoners” approach to this game. Lay the points. 8* Houston | |||||||
12-14-21 | Louisiana-Monroe +12 v. Stephen F Austin | Top | 82-69 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
8* LA Monroe (7:30 ET): Kind of “scratching my head” here as to why LA Monroe is getting double digits here. I’m assuming that the blowout losses the Warhawks suffered early in the season are still on the oddsmakers’ mind. But those were to the likes of LSU and Auburn, two of the best teams in the entire country. Here they are facing a SF Austin team that has fallen off a bit from the years (2014-18) where they were an NCAA Tournament regular. Even though they are 7-2 SU, the Lumberjacks shouldn’t be laying this many points tonight. This is a significant season in Nacogdoches as SFA (along with three other Texas schools) moved from the Southland Conference to the WAC. The move came on the heels of the program having to vacate some 100+ wins from its “heyday” due to eligibility errors. As the season moves on, it will be interesting to see how the Lumberjacks perform in their new conference. They’ve yet to play a single WAC game and the majority of their opponents have been “also-rans” (including three non-DI opponents). SFA did just beat Liberty 61-53, as 2.5-point dog, over the weekend. But I think that minor upset should result in a bit of a letdown tonight. SFA was able to defeat Liberty thanks to much better shooting from three-point range (53.3% to 22.2%) and a significant edge in FT attempts. They can’t count on that happening again. LA Monroe has built up some confidence with three consecutive wins and the Warhawks now average 81.3 PPG, tied for 32nd most in the country! My power ratings indicate this number should be a LOT lower and I’ll trust those numbers by taking the points. 8* LA Monroe | |||||||
12-14-21 | Monmouth v. Yale +2 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* Yale (7:00 ET): The big “story” coming into this game is that Monmouth is a perfect 10-0 against the spread to start the season. What makes that start all the more remarkable is that all but two of the contests have been “true” road games. Only twice have the Hawks lost straight up - by two at Charlotte and by five at St. John’s. So, no matter what way you slice it, it’s been an incredible start by the MAAC contingent. But you know that eventually they are going to fail to cover a spread. I believe tonight is that night. This will be Monmouth’s sixth straight game on the road (second in three days) and they are facing a team that was the preseason favorite to win its conference. Take the points here. Now, with a 6-6 SU record, Yale has failed to live up to its advanced billing. The Bulldogs have dropped a couple close ones, losing by three to Southern Utah and by four to Stony Brook, but in their five games as underdogs they’ve lost four times. Now some of those were against Top 25 teams, like Seton Hall and Auburn. Yale also had to travel to face a good Vermont team. In the most recent game, the Bulldogs faced Iona (another MAAC team) and lost 91-77. Nevertheless, I still think this team is better than its record and will show why they were the preseason choice to win the Ivy League. With Monmouth, there has to be a concern about them “running out of gas” at some point. Again, tonight marks their sixth straight game on the road, a stretch which goes all the way back to the end of November. They outlasted Pitt on Sunday, winning 56-52, thanks to a huge first half. Pitt missed all seven of its three point attempts in the 1H and finished the game with a 34.0 overall FG%. Yale will shoot better than that as they are 46.6% for the season at home, including 38.5% from three. The Bulldogs, who are 7-1 ATS after allowing 80+ points in their last game, also average 82.6 PPG on their own court. They’ve lost B2B games just one time this year. 10* Yale | |||||||
12-13-21 | Cleveland State v. Oklahoma State -12.5 | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma State (8:00 ET): After a 6-1 start to their season, Oklahoma State has dropped two straight games, both as home favorites. They lost 60-51 to Wichita State and 77-71 to Xavier. In both instances, the Cowboys inability to make shots doomed them. They missed their final nine FG attempts vs. Wichita State, ending up at just 37.5% for the game. Against Xavier, the Pokes ran into a 2-3 matchup zone and that really slowed them down. The L2 games have seen OSU go a combined 13 of 47 (27.6%) from three-point range. Having had more than a week off, look for them to shoot better tonight against Cleveland State here in Stillwater. Lay the points. Now I know it may seem risky to lay double digits to a Cleveland State team that has won its last six games. But the Vikings, co-regular season champs in the Horizon League last season, haven’t had to leave campus in quite a while. They’ve played just one “true” road game all season and that was the opener, a 69-59 loss to BYU. CSU then lost its next game, 67-56 to Ohio U, giving them an 0-2 start to the year. They’ve since managed to beat up on some lesser competition, but this will easily be their toughest opponent to date. In four of the last five games, Cleveland State has managed to shoot 50% or better from the field. Don’t look for that to happen tonight. OSU has held opponents to 37.3% for the year so far and is 13th in the country (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. Both teams have big upcoming games (CSU plays Duke next, OSU plays Houston). But the home team, coming off B2B losses, should be more focused tonight and will shoot the basketball a lot better than they have of late. Look for a “statement game” from the Cowboys. 10* Oklahoma State | |||||||
12-12-21 | Wolves v. Blazers | Top | 116-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* Portland (9:05 ET): Both these teams have been struggling mightily as of late. The Blazers have lost four in a row, all by double digits, while Minnesota has lost five in a row with the last three defeats coming by an average of 20 PPG. So something is going to have to give Sunday night in the Pacific Northwest. Injuries aside, my power ratings say Portland should be a solid favorite in this spot. With the chance that Damian Lillard could return to the lineup tonight, my money is on the home team. Portland has lost its last three home games. However, there’s no denying the fact this is a much better team at home than on the road. The Blazers fell to 1-11 SU away from home with a 104-94 loss at Golden State on Wednesday. But they are still 10-4 SU here at the Moda Center where their number of points scored rises to 111.7 PPG and their number of points allowed drops to 106.9 PPG. The home court advantage seems especially valuable for tonight as Minnesota has dropped eight straight here in Portland. Lillard could return and the Blazers are at home. That’s two reasons to like them. Another is the amount of time off they’ve had between games. For the first time this year, Portland will be taking the court with three days of rest. Minnesota last played on Friday when they trailed by as many as 30 at home vs. Cleveland. Defensively, the T’wolves are a mess right now having allowed 110 or more points in seven of their last eight games. Their last three losses were all at home. On the road, they allow even more PPG. 10* Portland | |||||||
12-12-21 | Bears +12 v. Packers | Top | 30-45 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
9* Chicago (8:20 ET): Going total contrarian on this one as Green Bay is the first double digit favorite in a Sunday Night game this season. It’s somewhat rare to see a DD fave in these primetime matchups, at least on SNF where it’s happened only eight times the previous decade. Those eight favorites went just 2-6 ATS. As bad as the Bears have looked this season, I can’t help but think this is an inflated number. At least Justin Fields is back at QB. Yes, I’m taking the points here. There’s always a sense of “pride” in these division games and I don’t see Chicago just “rolling over” in this one. Aaron Rodgers was not afraid to make his feelings known in the last meeting between these teams. “I own you” is what Rodgers told the Soldier Field faithful following a 24-14 win back in Week 6. First off, note that win was “only” by 10 points (less than the spread here). Secondly, might Rodgers’ comments come back to bite him? You’ve got to think the Bears will at least be motivated after being disrespected like that. Total yardage and first downs were actually pretty close in Chicago back October 17th. The Bears have just one win since losing to the Packers two months ago, but last week they actually outgained Arizona only to be undone by four turnovers. They also finished with a 26-14 edge in first downs! Fields definitely has a higher ceiling than “turnover machine” Andy Dalton. The Packers may be 10-2 ATS overall (including 5-0 at Lambeau), but they are due to drop a game at the betting window. 9* Chicago | |||||||
12-12-21 | Giants +10 v. Chargers | Top | 21-37 | Loss | -122 | 18 h 41 m | Show |
8* NY Giants (4:05 ET): A change in playcallers has failed to provide any kind of spark for the struggling Giants’ offense - at least so far. Freddie Kitchens replaced Jason Garrett as the new OC two weeks ago, but the G-Men have scored a grand total of 22 points (including just one TD) since the change. They were held to season lows in points, total yards and time of possession last week against Miami. It doesn’t help that Daniel Jones is out because of a neck injury. But I think New York may surprise you this week, even with backup Mike Glennon at QB. This team has typically been reliable in the role of underdog. Take the points. The Chargers are off an impressive 41-22 win at Cincinnati, but they strike me as the kind of team that should never be laying this many points. Note that they nearly blew all of a 24-0 lead last week before pulling away late. Prior to that, the team had covered just one of five games with the two SU wins coming by three and four points. QB Justin Herbert will be without his top receiver this week as Keenan Allen has landed on the COVID-19 list. Coming off the surprisingly big win over the Bengals and with a huge division showdown vs. the Chiefs on deck, this is a tricky spot for Los Angeles. The Giants, as alluded to above, have done well in the past as a road underdog. They are 9-4 ATS in that role under HC Joe Judge and 19-7 ATS L26 going back further than that. The Chargers aren’t just 1-4 ATS L5 as favorites; they’ve never been more than a 6.5-point favorite in any game this season. They’ve got the worst homefield advantage in the league and are 5-13-1 ATS L19 as home chalk. LA’s YTD point differential is still negative while the Giants are outscored by only 5.2 PPG. I think the Giants’ offense can find success here as the Chargers’ D still ranks 31st against the run and 31st on third downs. 8* NY Giants | |||||||
12-12-21 | UMKC -1 v. SIU-Edwardsville | Top | 56-60 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
8* UMKC (3:00 ET): It would seem as if the oddsmakers are underrating UMKC right now. I had them on Friday, as my *10* Game of the Week, when they held off Green Bay for a 64-55 win and cover as 8.5-point favorites. I definitely had to sweat the cover, but let it be known that the Roos were up by as many as 17 points in the second half. The fact that the game ended up being closer “than it should have been” actually works in our favor here as we can again grab UMKC at a discounted price. Here, the Roos are facing a SIU-Edwardsville team that is 3-6 SU and has not won B2B games at any point this season. The fact SIU-Edwardsville is off a win here makes them an attractive fade on Sunday. The Cougars played arguably their best game on Wednesday, beating IPFW 80-59 as a 2-point home underdog. They jumped on the Mastodons from the start, taking a 46-29 lead. But SIU Edwardsville has yet to play two good games in a row. After their previous two wins, they’ve gone out and lost by double digits both times. One of those losses was to St. Thomas, a non-DI school! The other was a 25-point loss at Bradley last Saturday. This issue of not being able to follow up on a win has persisted for a while now with SIU-Edwardsville as they are 0-7 ATS off their previous seven SU win! As for UMKC, they are now a perfect 5-0 ATS their L5 games as a favorite and 6-0 ATS their last six games vs. teams that have losing records. A reminder that the Roos have already gone to Missouri and won this year. 8* UMKC | |||||||
12-12-21 | Falcons v. Panthers -2.5 | Top | 29-21 | Loss | -113 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
10* Carolina (1:00 ET): The Panthers’ 3-0 SU/ATS start is now a distant memory as they are 5-7 SU/ATS coming out of the bye. This is a team that’s finished with just five wins each of the last two seasons. If they want to beat that number in 2021, this might be their last chance to do so. That’s because the final four weeks of the season will see Carolina face Buffalo, Tampa Bay twice and New Orleans. Three of those games are on the road. Given that upcoming schedule and the fact that (now former) OC Joe Brady was dismissed during the bye week, I’m expecting an “inspired effort” here from the Panthers. Atlanta may have the same 5-7 SU record as Carolina, but I’d argue the Falcons are a significantly worse football team. Point differential certainly paints that picture as Atlanta has been outscored this season by 116 points. Carolina is only -17 in point differential. While the Panthers are fresh off a bye, the Falcons are playing for an eighth straight week. Last week marked the Dirty Birds’ fifth double digit loss of the season. This team is actually ranked dead last in the league in DVOA and struggles in all three phases of the game. The bottom line is that my power ratings say Carolina should be laying closer to SIX points on Sunday. I took the Panthers in the first meeting of the season, which they won 19-13 in Atlanta as 2.5-point dogs. They ended up outgaining the Falcons 332-213 thanks to a substantial edge in the ground game. Carolina ran for 200+ yards that day. While they no longer have RB Christian McCaffery (out for year) at their disposal, that’s okay. McCaffery didn’t play in that first matchup either. It was Chubba Hubbard leading the way. From Weeks 4-8, Hubbard was second in the NFL in rush attempts and ninth in yards. The Panthers also now have Cam Newton playing QB. The Falcons’ offense doesn’t run the ball well and the Panthers are fifth in the league in pass defense. Specifically, they’re very good at defending tight ends, so I’d expect Kyle Pitts (two catches, 13 yards in 1st meeting) to not have a big day. Lay the short number. 10* Carolina |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |