Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
08-28-17 | Braves +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -155 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
8* Run Line Atlanta (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Braves +1.5. While theoretically this is a battle of NL East also-rans, things have played out in extraordinarily one-sided fashion between the Braves and Phillies in 2017. Philadelphia has taken 11 of the 13 head to head meetings, including all six since the All-Star Break, and they're a perfect 7-0 vs. Atlanta here at home. On paper, this makes little sense. Philly has the worst record in baseball (48-81) and is 9.5 games back of the Braves in the standings. The market has taken notice though and this will be the 1st time this year that the Phillies are substantial ML favorites to beat the Braves. That opens up an opportunity to play the run line at a decent price and getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with against the team w/ the worst record in baseball is not only rare, but seems like a great value to boot! Note no team has played more one-run games this year than have the Phils (47). Four of those six wins over Atlanta since the Break have come by a one-run margin. The Phillies are probably feeling confident for a number of reasons coming into this series. One, they won yday, 6-3 over the Cubs. Two, is the head to head dominance of the Braves that we already spoke of. Three, they have Aaron Nola (their best pitcher) on the hill tonight. However, Nola has been rocked in B2B outings, giving up 12 runs in 11 1/3 IP. Prior to that, he'd been in fine form, so Phillies' fans are probably thinking "bounce back," especially with the way the team has handled Atlanta this year. But Nola has faced the Braves only one time in 2017. Furthermore, this really isn't a good price to be taking the Phillies. Not only have they been favored a NL low 29 times this season (only White Sox have been favored fewer times on the ML this yr), but they are likely to close higher on the ML here than for any other game this season. The previous high of -150 was set back on 7.8 w/ Nola on the mound facing San Diego. The Phillies lost that game 2-1. Note that the Phillies are a stunning 6-0 in one-run games vs. Atlanta this year. In all other one-run games, their record is 10-31! Atlanta was shut out yday, 3-0 by the Rockies. But that was after taking the opener of that series and losing the second game ... by only one run. Starter Lucas Sims joined the starting rotation this month and is coming off his best outing to date, one where he tossed six shutout innings of three-hit ball against Seattle. Opponents have yet to record a single hit w/ RISP against him (0 for 11). Perhaps most impressive about the Braves is that they are 6-1 this year immediately following a shutout loss. Philly did take two of three from the Cubs over the weekend, but remember they lost the middle game by a score of 17-2. They are unworthy of this price range and Atlanta sure seems "due" to beat them at least once here. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5) | |||||||
08-27-17 | Bengals v. Redskins -3 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
8* Washington (4:30 ET): The Redskins have opened the preseason at 0-2 SU/ATS, but after a somewhat disastrous opener at Baltimore (lost 23-3), they looked a lot better last week at home vs. Green Bay. They actually outgained the Pack 335-266, but gave up the GW TD w/ 6:16 to go when the backups were all in. Now I'm well aware that QB Kirk Cousins failed to impress. He and the 'Skins' first-teamers actually played the entire first half, yet didn't produce a touchdown until the sixth drive when they were facing the Packers' backups. Heck, they didn't even gain a single first down until the final play of the 1st quarter! As a result, I expect a very motivated team on Sunday. Cincinnati (1-1) has been outgained in both games so far and looked suspect on defense. I'm laying the points. Consider that the Redskins were actually bet to the role of favorite at Baltimore for the 1st preseason game! By comparison, this line offers tremendous value as they're at home. It would appear as if the consensus prognostication for this team is not all that rosy in 2017, but I think they're not bad (should finish at or around .500). You can debate Cousins' fair market value all you want, but he's a good QB by 2017 standards. The Redskins actually had one of the most efficient offenses in the league a year ago as only the Falcons and Saints gained more yards. The team was actually tied for second in YPP (yards per play) differential! Starters are again expected to play the entire first half (at least) here and with this being the final chance to impress the home fans before the regular season, I look for Washington to score a lot more points Sunday. It also helps that they're facing a Cincinnati defense that has looked suspect so far in the preseason. That they gave up only 12 points in the opener to Tampa Bay is misleading as the Bucs' first team offense had their way w/ them. Last week, they gave up 30 points to Kansas City, allowing them to score on each of the first five drives. Three different Chiefs' QB's threw touchdown passes against what remains a short-handed Bengals stop unit. Meanwhile, the Cincy offense could only manage four field goals and no touchdowns. Their only two TD's scored this preseason both came in the third quarter of the first game w/ Jeff Driskel under center. In many ways, this franchise finds itself at a crossroads entering 2017 as they are coming off a 6-9-1 season after making the playoffs each of the previous four years. 8* Washington | |||||||
08-26-17 | Conor McGregor v. Floyd Mayweather Jr | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
8* Floyd Mayweather (11:00 ET): Note that the bet here is for Mayweather to win inside of 12 rounds. This is one where I had to step in as a result of the ridiculous amt of public betting on the underdog McGregor. Yes, we're all constantly looking for that big "payday," but you might have had a better shot buying a bunch of Powerball tickets rather than firing on Conor McGregor here. This is a boxing match. Floyd Mayweather is arguably one of the greatest fighters in the history of that particular sport, certainly the best of his generation. McGregor has never boxed professionally in his career. He will not be able to employ any MMA tactics here. Rather, he's going to have to stand and attempt to trade punches w/ Mayweather. He doesn't stand a chance. I have Mayweather finishing McGregor inside of the 12 rounds, which is a far better value as opposed to simply taking him to win. Reports are that McGregor's punching hardly would qualify him as a boxer. Yes, he's an accomplished mixed martial artist, but that's a totally different "game." I said earlier that Mayweather is the best of his generation and possibly all-time. You can't even say that about McGregor in MMA. He's an excellent hype man, the best ever possibly, but that's not going to help him once he gets in the ring. McGregor has lost three times in the Octagon, most recently to Nate Diaz in March of last year. Mayweather has never lost a boxing match in his career. The idea he would lose to a novice, even at 41 years of age, is just ludicrous. Would you bet on a football team if Michael Jordan was the quarterback? I hope not. What I expect to see here is McGregor start disciplined, get frustrated, and then go swinging for the fences. That's not a winning strategy and will play right into the hands of Mayweather, who will be far more accurate here. Shockingly, McGregor is being priced lower than some of Mayweather's recent boxing opponents. That's ludicrous. Yes, his critics will point out that it's been a while since Floyd knocked out an opponent. But a KO isn't requred for a stoppage here, remember. He can simply pound McGregor into oblivion causing the referee to step in. That seems like a logical conclusion to a fight that I can't see going more than 10 rounds. With no kicking, no takedowns and no submissions, McGregor has no chance. 8* Floyd Mayweather | |||||||
08-26-17 | Toronto +10 v. Calgary | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 32 m | Show |
10* Toronto (9:00 ET): The Argos are off one of the most impressive performances of this CFL season. It was certainly their most complete game. I had them, in a revenge spot from the previous week against Montreal, and they rolled to a 38-6 win and cover. With the Als losing again Thursday, Toronto now finds itself all alone in first place in the weak Eastern Division. The task is certainly tougher this week, but the spread is also larger, as they face the Stampeders on the road. As per usual, Calgary is the class of this league. They too are off an impressive win, 21-17 at B.C., though the margin of victory was nowhere near what Toronto's was last week. The Stamps' four-game SU and ATS win streak does include a 41-24 victory at Toronto. But, armed w/ revenge for a 2nd straight week, I believe the Argos plus the points are the way to go again. Earlier, I said that last week was - easily - Toronto's most complete performance of the season. I wasn't joking. They outgained Montreal 466-140 in the 38-6 win. Clearly, the key was the return of QB Ricky Ray, who threw for 377 yards and four TD's, all in first half. The game was over by halftime as the Argos were up 35-0. However, let us not discount the job the defense is doing here. Not only do they lead the league in yards per game allowed (305.9), but sacks (30) as well. That's despite being w/o several key players. They're now closer to full strength on that side of the ball and thus I expect the results we've seen to continue. Of course, Ray is healthy now too and that's the biggest difference for this team. While Toronto has the league's best defense, Calgary has the top offense. They are rolling up almost 400 yards per game. This team rarely loses at home. In fact, they've won 13 straight at McMahon Stadium. But might the pointspread catch up with them finally? They are 2 for 2 ATS as a double digit favorite so far. But those games were against Saskatchewan and Hamilton, the league's two last place teams and the latter being - easily - the worst team in the league. The Stampeders have hardly played the hardest schedule in the league to this point. Last week was their toughest matchup to date as they won only 21-17 at British Columbia. Winning in B.C. is not easy, but QB Bo Levi Mitchell completed only 48 percent of his passes, which is worrisome. Also, you have to wonder if this will be a lookahead for Calgary as they have the annual home and home against rival Edmonton looming. Toronto is undervalued here, plain and simple. 10* Toronto | |||||||
08-26-17 | South Florida v. San Jose State +22 | Top | 42-22 | Win | 100 | 80 h 55 m | Show |
8* San Jose State (7:30 ET): #19 USF rides into 2017 w/ plenty of fanfare. They are one of the favorites to represent the "group of 5" in a "New Year's Six" bowl game, coming off an 11-2 SU season (and one of those losses was at Florida State). Over the last two years, the team is 17-8-1 ATS. But with success comes new challenges. First off, HC Willie Taggart was lured away by Oregon. Charlie Strong takes over and while Taggart by no means left the cupboard empty, Strong certainly "won less w/ more" at his previous stop, Texas. The Bulls will also have to deal w/ inflated expectations. Case in point; this matchup at San Jose State where they're being asked to lay three touchdowns. Taggart's teams were only asked to lay more than two touchdowns one time on the road and that was the '15 finale against what was a winless UCF squad! Yes, there's a talent gap here, but I'll gladly grab the "bushel" of points with home dog San Jose State. Two years ago, San Jose State won a bowl game. But they dipped to 4-8 SU last year and Ron Caragher was shown the door as a result. His replacement, Brent Brennan, has never even been a coordinator at the FBS level. But he knows the program (assistant here from 2005-10). The last six years he worked as the WR coach at Oregon State. His two coordinators are both first-timers as well, one of them (OC Andrew Sowder) they youngest in FBS (only 28). With the new and inexperienced coaching staff, expectations are down this year. But I see the Spartans as likely being highly motivated for this game, which could be their lone visit this year from a ranked opponent (San Diego St on 11.4?). Brennan does inherit 15 returning starters and I have the offense improving after averaging only 24.4 PPG a year ago. USF figures to be favored in every game this year. Though the consensus favorite to win the AAC, note that they only outgained conference foes by an average of 14.6 PPG despite going 7-1 SU. I remember that at this time - last year- we were talking about a different AAC team (Houston) as likely to run the table. Guess what? They finished w/ four losses and didn't even win their division. One major issue I see with these Bulls is that the seniors will be playing under their fourth different coordinator in as many years. They did give up 31.6 PPG in 2016, not much fewer than SJ State allowed, and that's obviously problematic when laying this large of a number. On offense, they must find a way to replace the lost production of RB Marlon Mack. Yes, dual threat QB Quinton Flowers is awesome and USF is very likely to win this game. But I'll gladly fade what is likely to be a very "public" side here. 8* San Jose State | |||||||
08-26-17 | Bills +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 9-13 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 49 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): Few coaches have been more profitable this time of year (meaning the preseason) than Baltimore's John Harbaugh. With a 2-0 ATS (also 2-0 SU) start this year, he's now 25-13 against the number in his career. The Ravens have won all six preseason games the L2 seasons, the only team that can claim to be unbeaten during that time frame. If this all sounds like an endorsement for them this week, well, think again! As impressive as the resume may be, I'm not a huge fan of this team heading into 2017. QB Joe Flacco's ornerous contract has really hindered GM Ozzie Newsome's ability to construct a deep roster. Making matters worse, Flacco has yet to play this preseason ... or even practice. His status for the reg season opener remains questionable. Now the Ravens haven't needed Flacco in the preseason as their defense has been incredible, holding Washington and Miami to 10 points and 258 yards - total. This Ravens' defense was very stout last year, particularly against the run, but they did slip late in the year and that played a role in the team missing the playoffs. Buffalo, very quietly, had the league's top rushing offense a year ago. So that's something to keep in mind here. I do not think the Ravens' defense will be as good as it was last year and certainly not as good as it's been the first two weeks of the preseason. Last week, they got to face a depleted Miami team that was breaking in Jay Cutler (came out of a retirement) for the first time. With no Flacco, the Ravens will have to lean heavily here on Ryan Mallett, who has been his usual horrible self in the preseason. His passer rating is 53.2, which ranks 93rd among all QB's that have seen action. He threw two INT's last week. Baltimore's offense does not impress me, nor should it impress anyone. Buffalo is 0-2 SU/ATS this preseason, but has actually outgained both opponents. Last week saw them outgain the Eagles (in Philly), putting up over 400 total yds. But they couldn't get out of their own way (four turnovers) in a 20-16 loss. Full disclosure, despite trading away Sammy Watkins and the retirement of Anquan Boldin, I'm higher on this team than most. I think they were better than LY's 7-9 SU record. The problem is they were poorly coached (Rex Ryan). Ryan is gone (thankfully) and Sean McDermott is a 1st year HC still looking for a win. That should be a motivational edge here. QB Tyrod Taylor is better than he looked last week and backup Nathan Peterman (rookie) looked good in Week 1. In limited duty, RB LeSean McCoy looked explosive last week. Baltimore will be a popular play here, but taking the points is the way to go. 10* Buffalo | |||||||
08-26-17 | Hawaii v. UMass | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 28 m | Show |
8* Massachusetts (6:00 ET): By any objective standard, UMass was not a good football team last season. The Minutemen went 2-10 SU for HC Mark Whipple (his 2nd stint here in Amherst) w/ one of the wins coming against FCS Wagner. Their season unceremoniously ended with a 46-40 loss out in Hawaii where they did cover as seven-point underdogs. Wouldn't you know it; Hawaii is also the opponent for TY's season opener! Last year's meeting meant "the world" to the Warriors as they needed a win to secure a bowl bid (which they did), but this year we're starting w/ an even slate and there won't be that clear motivational edge for one side. Saturday's game also takes place in Amherst, a big difference when you're talking a cross-country trip. While Hawaii managed to split its six road games LY, they had won just 1 of 24 under the previous regime! It was a very even game last November (tied 40-40 w/ under four minutes to go and after giving up the go-ahead score, UMass was then stopped on downs at the UH 21). With UMass set to be much improved in '17, I'll call for them to win and gain revenge for last year's defeat. UMass has yet to win a home opener since moving up to the FBS level five years ago. So that's some motivation, if you're looking for it. Note though all five previous years saw them open up against a Power 5 foe. Last year was set up for failure as they went from 19 returning starters in '15 (most in FBS) to only nine (#120) and became an Independent. The schedule was much tougher than being in the MAC as they played three SEC schools and ended the year w/ three true road games. This year, the Minutemen have nine returning starters on the defensive side of the ball alone. Six starters are back on offense and QB Andrew Ford, now a junior, will be in his second year at the helm. Ford has a quality target to throw to in TE Adam Breneman, who is on the Mackey Award watch list. Also indicating better times are ahead: the team is likely to improve upon LY's ugly -10 turnover margin and an 0-3 SU record in games decided by seven points or less. Conversely, Hawaii was a pretty lucky team in 2016. They overachieved in Nick Rolovich's 1st year, jumping from 3-10 to 7-7. Keep in mind that at one point, they were 4-7 SU. They were both outscored (-9.0 PPG!) and outgained (71 YPG) despite the .500 finish. Back to the struggles on the road; the program has lost its last six road openers - by an average of 23 points per game. This is a LONNNNG road trip and I wouldn't be surprised if Hawaii forgets to "pack" its defense. 8* Massachusetts | |||||||
08-25-17 | Tigers v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi White Sox (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the White Sox +1.5. The last two days saw the Southsiders beat the Twins top two pitchers (here at home), so I've got no fear here in fading the Tigers' Justin Verlander, who has been woeful on the road anyway. Wednesday saw Chicago beat Ervin Santana, 4-3, as James Shields and three relievers held the Twins to just three hits, enabling a late-inning come from behind effort. Yesterday was far easier as they prevailed 5-1, again holding the Twins bats in check. Maybe Minnesota is overrated, but there's no disputing that Detroit is inferior, making the current price range questionable at best. In fact, this will be just the fifth time all season that the Tigers are priced between -125 and -175 on the road. They've gone 1-3 in the previous four instances. Even though Verlander has a 0.682 WHIP over the course of the last three starts, he was hammered in his lone road start during that time, giving up three home runs (five runs total) in a loss at Texas. Detroit is not a good road team at all; in fact, they've been outscored this year by an average of 1.3 rpg outside of Comerica Park. Verlander's TSR is 3-10 away from home as he has a 5.24 ERA and 1.461 WHIP. While they did win yday, the Tigers have been giving up runs in bunches lately. Over the last eight games, they've allowed an average of nearly 8.0 rpg and four times during that stretch they've allowed 10+ runs. While they did sweep the White Sox the last time they faced them, that was back in June and in Detroit. The White Sox had taken 9 of the first 15 meetings as well. Miguel Gonzalez will start here for Chicago and like Verlander, he's been enjoying a strong stretch. Tonight marks the fourth time he will have faced the Tigers this season. The one time he got to face them at home, the White Sox won, 7-3. Over his L3 starts, Gonzalez has a 0.90 ERA and 1.100 WHIP. Last time out, he tossed six scoreless innings, which resulted in a 3-2 win at Texas as +182 underdogs. What's really impressive about this recent stretch for Gonzalez is that he was a +182, +300 and +190 dog on the money line and the team has won two of the three starts. He's had to face a lot of the "big boys" here in the second half (Dodgers twice, Indians, Cubs, Red Sox and Houston), so facing the Tigers should be a "walk in the park" by comparison. I haven't even mentioned the wild brawl that Detroit was involved in (w/ the Yankees) yday and there could be repercussions from that. Home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5) | |||||||
08-25-17 | Patriots -2 v. Lions | Top | 30-28 | Push | 0 | 56 h 31 m | Show |
10* New England (7:00 ET): The Lions have opened the preseason 2-0 SU, also covering both games. But they've also had the good fortune of playing both the Colts (traditionally one of the worst preseason teams and w/o Andrew Luck) and the Jets (the consensus worst team in the league this year). Furthemore, while both victories came by double digit margins, neither was particularly impressive. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 0-2. That means nothing in the grand scheme of things, but you can bet it has Bill Belichick at least a tad bit more ornery than usual. With this being the week that most resembles regular season action (starters seeing most action), I give a huge edge to the Patriots, obviously a far more talented team than Detroit. Lay the short number. Despite Tom Brady playing only two series so far, the Patriots have put up 47 points, which is more than the Lions. Brady completed six of nine pass attempts last week, his first game action since the Super Bowl, and directed a touchdown drive. That bodes well for this week. The Pats' offense has severely out-first downed its two opponents thus far (50 total) and even w/o Brady put up 426 total yds of offense against Jacksonville in Wk 1 (lost 31-24). Last week, they outgained the Texans (339-281) w/ a 24-13 first down edge, but were undone by a -3 turnover ratio. After Brady inevitably leaves this game, he'll give way to Jimmy Garoppolo, who is a more than capable backup. Rob Gronkowski will also play here. One thing I can also guarantee is that after two sub-optimal efforts, Belichick will have his defense better prepared for Week 3. While New England enters the 2017 season as the Super Bowl favorite (what else is new?), I have Detroit regressing rather severely. Yes, the Lions did make the playoffs a season ago (at 9-7), but they had zero wins over fellow playoff teams. They were outscored by 32 points (including 26-6 playoff loss to Seattle) and the defense actually allowed the highest completion percentage in NFL history (Brady and Garoppolo have to be salivating!). Were it not for a record EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks, no way would this team have made the playoffs. This year, I believe they will end up as one of the worst teams in the NFC. Were this game to be played in the regular season, the line would clearly be far greater and thus there's some value considering New England's starters will see extended time plus they are the deeper team overall. 10* New England | |||||||
08-24-17 | Nationals +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
8* Run Line Washington (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Nationals at +1.5. Stephen Strasburg, plus an additional 1.5 runs? Thank you, very much! Now obviously there's a reason for this and that reason is he'll be opposed by Dallas Keuchel this evening. Keuchel has dropped only two decisions this year for the Astros (11-2 in 16 starts) and as per usual has been outstanding here at home (1.35 ERA, 0.857 WHIP). But Strasburg is every bit his equal (if not better) and certainly arrives in better form for tonight's series finale between division leaders. Whereas Strasburg has a 1.80 ERA and 0.933 WHIP his L3 starts, Keuchel is at 4.58 and 1.471 respectively. Runs figure to be at a premium here and let's be sure to note that Houston actually has a losing record since the All-Star Break (17-20). Washington is 23-13 its L36 games despite the loss last night. The run line makes a ton of sense here. The Nats have actually owned this Interleague matchup through the years, going 13-2 head to head w/ the Astros. They'd beaten them nine straight times after Tuesday's 4-3 victory. But Houston was able to bounce back last night, winning 6-1, thanks to hitting three homers. Strasburg doesn't allow many of those, however, so that offensive weapon could be out the door tonight. Strasburg did allow one HR his last time out, his only mistake, in a shocking and hard-luck 3-1 loss to the Padres. After the 1st inning HR, he allowed just two more hits over six innings and finished w/ an 8-1 KW ratio. Notable is that was Strasburg's return from a stint on the DL. His last four starts that have NOT been cut short by injury have all been quality ones. For the record, the Nats own the best road record in baseball (40-24) and are 29-17 off a loss this season. Keuchel had his own stint on the DL recently. He was roughed up right before that, giving up eight runs as a -250 ML favorite against the White Sox. But since returning, he's been back to his usual dominant self. Still, he has a 5.73 ERA in two career starts vs. Washington and let's not forget the NL team benefits here from the addition of the DH to their lineup. Even w/o the DH, the Nationals rank fourth in runs scored, third in batting average, sixth in OBP and 2nd in slugging. Curiously, Houston has been a better team on the road this season as they've actually lost money here at Minute Maid Park. 8* Run Line Washington (+1.5) | |||||||
08-21-17 | Giants v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:00 ET): Saying last season was "bad" for the Browns would be an understatement of epic proportions. Not only were they 1-15 SU in the regular season, they lost all four preseason games as well (0-4 ATS!). In fact, prior to last week, this moribund franchise had lost 10 of its previous 12 exhibition contests. But led by rookie QB DeShone Kizer, they were able to beat the Saints, 20-14 as three-point home favorites. Cleveland gets to stay in the "Dawg Pound" this week for a nationally televised affair against the Giants, who lost their preseason opener 20-12, as 3.5-pt chalk, to Pittsburgh. Right now, it is the Browns that - clearly - have more to prove and I look for that to translate onto the field tonight as they win their second consecutive preseason game. The Giants are in store for some major regression in 2017, at least from where I sit. Last year saw them go 8-3 SU in one-score games and finish w/ a point differential of just +26, which is more indicative of a 9-win team than an 11-win one. I've got them falling back to 7-9 (SU) for 2017 due to a variety of reasons. As I just made note of, they exceeded their Pythagorean win expectation (8.8) by over two games last year. So they were quite fortunate to go 11-5 SU. Only Houston had a larger difference between actual and Pythagorean wins last year. The defense made a massive jump from 30th in DVOA to 2nd, so that unit will regress. QB Eli Manning is now getting up there in years (he's 36!) and is in decline. Manning did not play last week and figures to only be on the field for a few series (at most) tonight. The QB's that did see time last week - Geno Smith, Davis Webb and Josh Johnson - hardly strike fear into my heart. The Browns do not yet know who will be their starting QB come Wk 1 of the regular season. Brock Osweiler (brought over from Houston via trade) is being given every opportunity, but he stinks and isn't long for the job anyway. Cody Kessler saw significant time under center LY, but was outplayed last week by the rookie Kizer, who finished up w/ 184 yds passing (including the GW TD). The organization probably doesn't want Kizer to be the starter just yet, but that doesn't mean he won't play well again. I also liked what I saw from the Browns defense LW as the two rookies - Myles Garrett and Jabril Peppers - both looked good. The Browns have also had an extra day to prepare for this game and like I said earlier, this being a national TV affair should only further motivate the team in front of its own fans. Unlike most teams in the league, Cleveland SHOULD care about winning in the preseason. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
08-21-17 | Diamondbacks v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
8* Run Line NY Mets (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Mets +1.5. Even after dropping five of their last six (were just swept in Minnesota), the D'backs are still in Wild Card position in the National League, though their margin for error is now growing slimmer by the day. Expect "the world" to be on them tonight as they visit the Mets, who have lost six of their last seven games. But this road trip has made clear that Arizona is simply NOT the same team on the road as their runs per game average dips by nearly a run and a half compared to what they score at Chase Field. As a result, their record away from home is only 28-33 and that includes a 3-6 mark when favored in the -125 to -175 range. I think the Mets will do no worse than a one-run loss here, so take the +1.5. In the interest of full disclosure, the Mets let me down yday, losing 6-4 to the Marlins. That was w/ Jacob deGrom pitching. They did at least make things interesting late - by scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth, but alas, it was not enough. The key play in the game was Miami's Dee Gordon reaching base on an infield single as Giancarlo Stanton quickly followed w/ a 3-run HR. This has obviously become a "lost" season in Queens, but that doesn't mean you won't still find some value on the Metropolitans from time to time. Here, they'll send Robert Gsellman to the mound. This will be just his second start since coming off the DL. The first came at Yankee Stadium, which was a tough spot, and he only allowed four hits in 5 1/3 IP. He did allow three runs - one unearned - and generall speaking when he's not facing one of the "big boys" (like a Los Angeles or Washington), he's pitched okay. Arizona will send Taijuan Walker to the bump and he hasn't won in two months. Lately, he's simply been pretty bad as his ERA is 5.62 and his WHIP is 1.562 the L3 starts. Overall, the team has lost the last SEVEN times he's pitched. That's not good, nor is the team's hitting over the previous week. They're averaging just 2.9 rpg w/ a collective .217 batting average. While they did sweep the Mets back in May (at Chase Field), two of those games were decided by one run. Arizona has played the third-most one-run games in all of baseball w/ 39. The way in which they got dominated over the weekend (by Minnesota!) is an ominous sign as they were outscored 27-8 in the three games. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5) | |||||||
08-19-17 | Broncos v. 49ers -2.5 | Top | 33-14 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
10* San Francisco (10:00 ET): This will be the first home game for the 49ers new coaching staff, led by Kyle Shanahan, the architect of the great Falcons offense we saw a year ago. Anyone who thinks Shanahan can come even remotely close to that kind of production w/ the personnel he inherits here ought to have their head examined. That beind said, the Niners gained an impressive 434 total yards in last week's 27-17 win over Kansas City, the most of any team in Week 1! And starting QB Brian Hoyer played only one series. So maybe Shanahan is onto something here. Certainly, he'll be "out for victory" again tonight as the Niners are in desperate need of impressing a fanbase that hasn't had much to cheer about since Jim Harbaugh left for Michigan. Lay the short number. Denver was also victorious in their first preseason game, 24-17, but they were outgained 363-281 and made a rookie (Mitchell Trubisky) look like the greatest Bears QB in multiple generations. This Broncos team has been carried the L2 years by an awesome defense, including to a win in Super Bowl 50 even as Peyton Manning's skills were deterioriating at a rapid rate. But I don't see that defense performing at the same level this year (DC Wade Phillips has left) and the team still has no answer at QB as neither Paxton Lynch nor Trevor Siemian has impressed. In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Broncos finish in last place in the AFC West. They too have a 1st year HC, Vance Joseph, but he's likely more concerned w/ next week's home debut (against Green Bay) than he is w/ this game. While it was not the first team Denver defense that got torched by Trubisky last week, it's nevertheless concerning here. A rookie was able to come in and in his 1st NFL action complete 18 of 25 pass attempts for 166 yards and rush three times for 38 yards. Those numbers don't even tell the full story of how good the UNC product looked. So there's hope for the San Francisco QB's here. I also like how Shanahan stayed committed to running the ball last week as the offense finished w/ 188 yds on 36 carries. He should do the same again here as the Broncos defensive front is thin right now. The 49ers defense also kept the Chiefs under 200 total yds and forced a pair of turnovers. This time of year, it's the bad teams from the previous season that have more to prove and thus they tend to show more effort. The Broncos were lucky to even win last week as they scored two TD's late and got another (early) from the defense. 10* San Francisco | |||||||
08-19-17 | Montreal v. Toronto -1.5 | Top | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
10* Toronto (4:00 ET): For the second week in a row, these Eastern Division rivals meet. Last week, it was in Montreal and the Alouettes prevailed 21-9 as 7.5-pt favorites. As you can tell from that final score, it was a game dominated by the Als defense, which is giving up the fewest number of points per game in the East (2nd overall, behind Calgary). But something else that needs to be mentioned here is that Argos' QB Ricky Ray didn't play last week. He'll return Saturday and this time the game will be played at BMO Field in Toronto. Ray's return is critical, as you can tell from how the line has swung for this rematch. Despite not playing at all last wk, Ray is still 2nd in the the league in passing yards and has thrown for 300+ in every game he's finished so far. He is # 1 in the league w/ 25 pass completions of 20+ yards. Lay the very short number here. Ray went down two weeks ago, in the second half vs. Calgary, a game the Argos lost 41-24. Thus last week marked the end of a very consistent stretch for this offense, one that had seen them score between 24 and 27 points for five consecutive weeks. The Eastern Division, as per usual, seems to be weak with Montreal currently leading Toronto by one-half game in the standings. Both teams are currently below .500. So a win here would actually put the Argos in first place despite them being w/o their starting QB for the last game and a half. Also adding to the importance is the fact Toronto has failed to cover the spread in five consecutive games. They desperately need some momentum and I think Ray's return provides that. The Montreal defense is strong, but it's the team's strong suit almost by default as the offense has scored 21 pts or fewer in five of seven games this year. As Saskatchewan showed last week, exacting revenge can sometimes be easy. One week after losing at B.C. 30-15, the Rough Riders whipped the Leos 41-8 at home. That's the blueprint I'm following here and it should be pointed out that the Als are just 3-8 ATS their L11 times off a SU win. 10* Toronto | |||||||
08-18-17 | Vikings v. Seahawks -3.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
8* Seattle (10:00 ET): Minnesota HC Mike Zimmer has found great success this time of year. Not only did his Vikings win LW, 17-10 at Buffalo, but they swept all four preseason games LY as well. He now carries a 12-2 SU/ATS record in preseason affairs into tonight's date w/ Seattle, but may have met his match in Seahawks HC Pete Carroll, who is now 19-9 ATS in the preseason after his team destroyed the Chargers LW, 48-17. Tonight is the Seahawks home debut, which always carries at least a little extra motivation and last week's performance - even w/ the backups in - showed me that Carroll's team isn't messing around. Lay the points. Thanks in large part to the backups, the Seahawks rolled to a 48-17 win last week w/ a 458-322 edge in total yards. They also forced four turnovers. The backups being able to score so much is certainly encouraging. While the overall depth here might not be what it was in the team's Super Bowl season, Seattle remains one of the "teams to beat" in the NFC coming into 2017 and they certainly are in the position Minnesota wishes it was. I was encouraged by what I saw from Seahawks backup QB Trevone Boykin, who threw for 189 yards. We're likely to see more of RB Eddie Lacy tonight as Thomas Rawls suffered a "minor" ankle injury last week. Chris Carson has also looked good in training camp. Minnesota may have won last week, but did so despite being outgained by 67 yards. They managed just a field goal in the 1st half, a far cry from the 34 points Seattle put on the board in the 1H against the Chargers. To me, this Vikings team will continue to remain "average at best" as long as Sam Bradford remains the QB. I think replacing Adrian Peterson w/ rookie Dalvin Cook will end up as a net positive, but still the team barely gained 3.0 YPC last week against Buffalo. Finishing w/ only 152 yds passing isn't very impressive either, especially considering the majority of it came w/ third stringer Case Keenum in the game. I expect the Vikings offense to struggle again here and Zimmer to suffer a rare preseason defeat. 8* Seattle | |||||||
08-18-17 | Cardinals v. Pirates +1.5 | Top | 11-10 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
8* Run Line Pittsburgh (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Pirates +1.5. The Bucs really let me down last night by blowing a 5-1 lead and losing 11-7. The blame - pretty clearly - lies at the feet of the bullpen for that one, specifically Joaquin Benoit, who has really struggled here since coming over from Philadelphia via trade. Note that Pittsburgh had the same # of hits as the Cards did yday (15), but did themselves no favors leaving the bases loaded in the sixth and then two RISP in the seventh. Perhaps predictably, the ML has "flipped" for tonight's game as the home team now finds itself as the underdog after drawing some serious action for yday's series opener. I'll take advantage of that by going w/ the RL as I see the Bucs doing no worse than a one-run loss here. Remember that St. Louis came into this series as losers of three straight. They'll have Carlos Martinez on the hill tonight and while he does rank in the Top 10 in ERA, strikeouts and opposing batting average among all NL starters, note that the team has gone only 12-12 in his 24 starts. Though he's off B2B quality outings, those came against Kansas City and Atlanta, two light-hitting teams. Martinez is also particularly susceptible to 1st inning meltdowns as he's allowed 18 ER in the first frame this season. He's faced Pittsburgh once this year, and while he pitched well (allowed just 2 ER in 7 IP), the team lost - by a single run. The Cardinals have played 41 one-run games this year, 2nd most overall, so that's yet another reason to gravitate towards the RL tonight. Pittsburgh has now lost five in a row and finds themselves four games back of the Cards plus 5.5 back of the first place Cubs. They had gotten back to .500 before this losing streak began. But after a seven-game road trip, they're back home now and that should suit Friday starter Trevor Williams well as he's posted a 3.48 ERA and 1.064 WHIP here at PNC Park. His last time pitching here, he allowed just a single hit in seven innings of shutout ball. Another thing to like about Williams is that he is not very prone to giving up home runs. He's allowed just two in his previous 11 starts. Williams was actually the one who beat Martinez back on 7.16, allowing only two runs. He's never lost to the Cardinals in four all-time appearances, posting a solid 3.50 ERA. 8* Run Line Pittsburgh (+1.5) | |||||||
08-14-17 | Giants +1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -180 | 23 h 54 m | Show |
8* Run Line San Francisco (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. San Francisco split a doubleheader yday, losing the nightcap, which went 11 innings. Thus, you may think that having to go down to Miami on Monday is a bad spot, but the run line could end up being the great equalizer here. Furthermore, I think this is an excellent spot to fade the Marlins, who are off a surprising sweep of the Rockies over the weekend. The Giants have revenge here for a three-game sweep that took place (at home) right before the All-Star Break. The Marlins aren't really a team to be feared and they're just 2-8 this year when on a win streak of three games or more. They've been outscored at home. Yes, the Nationals were w/o Bryce Harper, but I thought the Giants' pitching staff turned in somewhat of a yeoman's effort Sunday. They held MLB's top offense to only four runs in 19 innings before losing on a walk-off grand slam. In the first game, Washington didn't even get a runner into scoring position until the seventh inning. Certainly, skipper Bruce Bochy is hoping for a repeat of that w/ today's starter, Ty Blach, who has been one of the few positive surprises in this lost season by the Bay. Blach has made three consecutive quality starts (2.45 ERA), allowing only six runs in 22 IP. The team has won each of his L2 starts, one as a +175 dog against the Cubs. Going back further, Blach has a 5-2 TSR his L7 starts (2.98 ERA), six of those being quality. One of the two losses was certainly excusable as he was a +255 ML dog against the Dodgers. That game was decided by only one run as well, one of the Giants' 35 games decided by one run this season (5th most in MLB). Miami counters w/ Adam Conley, who is off B2B bad outings. Last time out, he gave up five runs and 11 hits - in just 5 IP - which was his worst performance since rejoining the rotation after the All-Star Break. Conley has not pitched particularly well at home as he has an 8.28 ERA and 1.599 WHIP here in five starts. The Marlins' sweep of Colorado over the weekend was a bit surprising, but consider the Rockies are just 35-64 all-time here on South Beach. Giancarlo Stanton continues to be ridiculous, but has to slow down at some point, right? The visitors do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5) | |||||||
08-13-17 | Seahawks v. Chargers -1.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
10* LA Chargers (8:00 ET): We all know the NFL preseason carries little importance, but from the Chargers' perspective, this 1st game probably has some meaning. It's their first game in their new market and thus the first chance for HC Anthony Lynn (1st year HC!) to impress the fanbase. We saw a 1st year HC win his home debut last night (Rams' Sean McVay). I believe we'll see the same here. The Lightning Bolts have a lot to prove coming into 2017. Meanwhile, the same cannot be said for Seattle, a perennial contender that just wants to get the regular season healthy. Lay the short number. I'm going on the record right now, stating the Chargers will be vastly improved this year. Yes, I said the same last year and while they technically improved (4 to 5 wins), it was quite neglible. But now with a new coach and in a new market, a far larger jump in the standings could be forthcoming. Really, how could it not? Over the last two seasons, they have a mind-numbing 11 blown fourth quarter leads while ranking among the most injured teams in the sport. They were 1-8 SU in games decided by seven points or less last season. Their Pythagorean win expectation for last year was actually 7.7. All of the above factors clearly point to upward mobility this year because, if anything, we know these metrics will tend to always regress/progress to the mean. QB Philip Rivers is set to play one series tonight while the rest of the team's starters may play two. One key for Rivers is that - despite a new head coach - there is some continuity on the coaching staff as Ken Whisenhunt was retained as the OC. On the Seattle side, there's a number of injuries, mostly at wide receiver w/ Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett both out tonight. I just think this is a very important spot for a 1st year HC, in front of a new fanbase, and the line move seems to agree with me. This game means nothing to Seattle; the Chargers need to get the season started on a positive note. 10* LA Chargers | |||||||
08-12-17 | Raiders v. Cardinals -3 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
8* Arizona (10:00 ET): This will be preseason game #2 for the Cardinals, who lost the Hall of Fame Game 20-18 to Dallas. While a loss, there's little takeaway from that game as none of the starters played. Honestly, if there was a takeaway, it was a positive one as QB Blaine Gabbert (much maligned most of his career) played well, engineering a pair of touchdown drives which got the Cards out to an early 15-0 lead (successful 2-pt conversion). Traditionally, coming off the H.O.F. Game has been an advantage in Game #2 as you're (obviously) playing an opponent that is only seeing "real" game action for the first time. There's been a sharp line move here and I agree w/ it. Lay the points. Spoiler alert: I will NOT be as high on Oakland as everyone else this season. Derek Carr leading a Silver and Black renaissance last year was a really nice story, but the team was extremely fortunate to go 8-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less while finishing tied (w/ KC) for the league's best turnover margin (+16). Carr is not as good as his fans would like you to believe. Of course, we shouldn't expect to see much of Carr tonight anyway. While Raiders' fans will be happy that their franchise signal caller is not in harm's way, they can also tell you how severe the drop off is beyond Carr at the position. Look no further than LY's Wild Card game at Houston where they were forced to start Connor Cook. Cook is still in the fold this year and figures to get the majority of the snaps tonight before giving way to the disaster that is EJ Manuel. Raiders HC Jack Del Rio (one of the game's best) is already on the record as saying he "isn't concerned" w/ seeing his front line players take the field tonight. That happens to include new RB Marshawn Lynch, who I believe will prove to be an overrated acquisition. Speaking of good coaches, Arizona's Bruce Arians is going to cede control of the playcalling in this game to QB coach Byron Leftwich, who is actually younger than starting QB Carson Palmer. People forget that at this time last season, Arizona was being talked about as a possible Super Bowl contender. They had a very disappointing 7-8-1 SU season, but I expect them to bounce back into playoff contention here in 2017. 8* Arizona | |||||||
08-12-17 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton +2.5 | Top | 39-12 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 29 m | Show |
10* Hamilton (7:30 ET): Oh those poor Taibbis. Hamilton, still the league's only winless team, dropped to 0-6 last week w/ a 33-28 loss at Edmonton, who happens to be the league's only unbeaten. Mind you, it was a game effort (as the final score indicates) and the second time in three weeks that they've played the Eskimoes tough. Of course, everyone still remembers how the Ti-Cats got crushed two weeks ago at Calgary (lost 60-1!) and that loss combined w/ the winless record all but ensured they'd be a home dog in this spot. I said taking the points was the way to go last week (easily covered as DD dogs) and the same holds true here as Winnipeg is a team certanly unaccustomed to the role of road chalk. This should be Hamilton's 1st win of the season. Winnipeg is coming off B2B close wins, first over Montreal (41-40) and then LW at Ottawa (33-30). The defense has surrendered 40+ pts three times this season, yet the Bombers are somewhat surprisingly 4-2 SU w/ one of those losses coming against B.C., a game where they blew a huge lead. But the L2 wks it has been them pulling the rabbit out of the hat. First, they rallied back from a 40-28 deficit against the Als (w/ less than two minutes to go!) to win by one. Last week was more of the same as they found a way to score twice in the final five minutes at Ottawa, including a GW FG w/ no time remaining. Eventually, all the good fortune will catch up w/ them however and I can't see a team allowing 34.8 PPG continuing to win at this rate. They've actually been outscored in their six games. This will be just the third time this year that the Bombers have been favored. They're 1-1 ATS in that role so far, both games coming at home. While Hamilton is the only team allowing more points per game than Winnipeg, their number is skewed due to that one disastrous performance at Calgary two weeks ago. Keep in mind that the L4 wks have seen the Ti-Cats have to play the three top teams in the league, including Edmonton twice. QB Zach Collaros threw for a season-high 3 TD's last week (against a much better defense than he'll face here) and he's 3-0 SU all-time vs. the Bombers. Tonight marks just the third home game for Hamilton and they just changed defensive coordinators, so expect that unit to play w/ some fire. 10* Hamilton | |||||||
08-10-17 | Jaguars +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (7:35 ET): Expectations are through the roof for the Patriots this year (when aren't they?) as oddsmakers have installed their season win total at a lofty 12.5 w/ some even going so far as to call for another perfect regular season (did so back in '07). To me, the idea of them running the table again seems unlikely, but regardless, the majority of the key components that make this team so good won't be a factor in Thursday night's preseason opener against Jacksonville. These teams have been practicing against one another the last couple days, so they should be somewhat familiar w/ one another at this point. There's been a sharp line move in the direction of the underdog here and that's a big reason why I'm taking the points. Jacksonville was a "chic" breakout pick for 2016, but they wound up being favored in only three games and finished 3-13 SU (wouldn't you know it?). Believe it or not, I believe they'll improve markedly this season under Doug Marrone, who has shed the interim tag. Predecessor Gus Bradley could never win here, but he quietly built a pretty decent defense, one that I feel will outperform expectations this season. The ceiling for this team though remains tied to QB Blake Bortles, who took a major step BACK last season. I loved the drafting of RB Leonard Fournette (LSU), which will take pressure off the mistake prone Bortles. Veteran QB Chad Henne figures to get a bulk of the snaps tonight. The Pats did go 3-1 in the preseason last year (while the Jags were 1-3), but there is no denying which team should view the game as more important. Hint: It's not the perennial Super Bowl contender. The spread obviously opened too high and sharps jumped all over it. While I wish I would have acted quicker than I did, the bottom line is taking more than a field goal seems like a good value with what should be the more motivated side. 8* Jacksonville | |||||||
08-10-17 | Vikings v. Bills +2 | Top | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): The "vaunted" preseason reputation of the Vikings appears to have preceded itself here as the betting public - likely aware of the team's 12-1 SU record this time of year - has moved them to the role of favorite. But that's in spite of one my own personal favorite preseason angles, that being taking a 1st year HC in his home debut. This is our first shot at seeing Sean McDermott's Buffalo Bills, a team I will likely be much higher on than most in 2017. The Bills were a better team than they showed throughout the failed tenure of predecessor Rex Ryan and w/ this being McDermott's initial shot at being able to impress the fanbase, I expect him to go for the win. Not a fan of road favorites in the preseason. Minnesota started out last year 5-0 SU/ATS and did so despite being w/o their starting QB, Teddy Bridgewater. Sam Bradford would go on to set a NFL record for completion percentage in 2016, but don't put much stock into that as completion percentage is way up across the board in the modern NFL plus Bradford is a checkdown machine who too often fails to get the ball downfield. The Vikings would close the season by winning only 3 of their final 11 games. Most unfortunate for them is the severity of the Bridgewater injury as he's unlikely to play much, if at all, this season. That means the underwhelming Bradford will again the run the show on offense, but for tonight's purposes, that will be for only a few snaps. The Vikings' backups at the QB position are Case Keenum and Taylor Heinicke, neither of whom I'd want to put my money on. I know HC Mike Zimmer has shown a propensity to take these games seriously, but we've reached the point in his tenure where that is likely to lessen. Meanwhile, McDermott is inheriting a Bills team that went 7-9 SU last year and hasn't made the playoffs since 1999 (longest active streak in the league!). But they have a great shot at finishing in second in the AFC East this year as both the Dolphins and Jets figure to be among the worst teams in the league and that could result in four wins right there. (Note: Buffalo was 0-4 against the Dolphins & Jets LY). The team just signed veteran WR Anquan Boldin to bolster the offense, but the player to keep an eye on both here and moving forward is Zay Jones, who set a NCAA record for receptions at East Carolina. Offensive starters are expected to play about a quarter tonight, which is a fair amt of time for the 1st preseason game, a signal to me that McDermott really wants to win his 1st try as a pro coach. 10* Buffalo | |||||||
08-09-17 | Texans v. Panthers -1 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
8* Carolina (7:30 ET): Houston was very fortunate to not only win the AFC South last year, but even finish at 9-7 SU. They were outscored by 49 points, a differential indicative of a 6.5 win team. Their average loss came by an average of nearly two touchdowns per game (three by 18+ pts) and their lone win that came by more than a TD was by nine points over a bad Bears team. Now the return of JJ Watt to the fold as well as the drafting of QB DeShaun Watson may lead you to believe that the team's overall level of play may improve in 2017. That may be true, but expect them to win fewer games. Carolina went from 15-1 SU and a Super Bowl appearance in '15 all the way down to 6-10 SU and out of the playoffs last year. But despite that record, they actually owned a slightly better point differential (-33) than the Texans. The Panthers are all but assured of improving in the win column this year and don't be surprised if they challenge Atlanta for the NFC South title. I liked the drafting of RB Christian McCaffery, which gives QB Cam Newton a new weapon to work with, plus the team will likely perform better in close games than last year's ugly 2-6 record in games decided by a field goal or less. Houston won all four of its preseason games last year, but I don't think for a second that they'll be matching that record here in 2017. All three of their QB's - Tom Savage, Watson and Brandon Weeden - are expected to play tonight w/ Savage starting. Savage and Weeden are both lost causes at this stage of their respective careers and I think it would be foolish to expect much from Watson in his first NFL game. As for Carolina, Cam Newton won't play at all, but McCaffery and many other offensive regulars will. Coming off a season like the Panthers had last year, I think it's important to win the first one in front of the home crowd and I can't understand why this line has moved in the direction it has. 8* Carolina | |||||||
08-09-17 | Orioles v. Angels +1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
8* Run Line LA Angels (3:37 ET): These teams have split the first two games of this three-game set, but for today's rubber match the Orioles have curiously been installed as favorites for the first time in the series. That makes little sense to me given their season-long struggles on the road. They're just 20-34 outside of Camden Yards in 2017 while getting outscored by a pretty ugly margin (-1.1 rpg). Speaking of run differential, something I've harped on previously is the fact the O's are fortunate to even be "sniffing" .500 given they're now -50 in runs scored vs. allowed for the season. Were it not for a very fortunate 9-2 record in one-run games (unsustainable!), I have to think their record would be a whole lot worse. The Angels are one-half game behind Baltimore in the Wild Card chase, but are actually only -17 in run differential following last night's 3-2 win. Furthermore, the current price range is somewhat foreign to Baltimore as they are rarely ML favorites on the road. Therefore, getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with - at this price- seems to be a great value on the home team. I sense that it is the recent peformances of Orioles' starter Kevin Gausman that has him and his team favored Wednesday. But while Gausman may have a 0.42 ERA and 1.015 WHIP his L3 starts, that string of showings certainly is NOT in line w/ what we've seen from him most of this season. He has a 5.15 ERA and 1.621 WHIP in 24 starts overall and predictably those numbers worsen on the road. Consider Baltimore's pitching staff has the highest ERA in the American League and has also given up the second most runs (Oakland). Pitching today for the Halos will be Troy Scribner. This will be just his second big league start and while he allowed five runs in the first (three unearned), the team did win (8-6 over Oakland). The Angels promptly lost their next three games after that, but I feel last night's win could be a turning point as I view this club as a far more serious playoff contender than I do the Orioles. I'll call for Mike Trout and the offense to have their biggest game of the series as well, which will obviously helpd Scribner, who should - at the very worst - keep his team in this one. Remember the difference in Monday's 6-2 win by Baltimore was a grand slam. I see the Angels doing no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line LA Angels (+1.5) | |||||||
08-08-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
8* Run Line Arizona (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the D'backs +1.5. These two NL West rivals met seven times in April w/ Arizona winning four of those games. Since then, they've played just one series and that was at Chavez Ravine (in early July) where the Dodgers swept the three games, winning by exactly one run every time. While certainly not the main reason, that last series certainly played a role in the Dodgers now having opened up a monstrous lead in the NL West as they are 15.5 games up on the Rockies and 16 up on the D'backs. But now they must venture into Chase Field where the D'backs are a much stronger team (36-18 record w/ 5.8 rpg scored!) and the home team may actually have the edge in starting pitching for Tuesday's opener. Yes, the Dodgers have been just plain ridiculous (44-7 L51 games!), but the RL provides a nice "added insurance" here. Arizona will do no worse than a one-run loss. Zack Godley will toe the rubber tonight for Arizona. He's just 5-4 in his 15 starts, but the team is 10-5. He owns a 2.86 ERA and 0.996 WHIP and is currently working on a 13-inning scoreless streak after shutting out the Cardinals and Cubs in B2B starts. So he comes into this start certainly displaying fine form. When he faced the Dodgers last month, he gave up only one run and three hits in 5 1/3 IP, but sadly took a hard-luck 1-0 loss. Of course, that result would be fine here given how we're playing this one. It should be pointed out that Godley has allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but two of his 15 starts this season (0.895 WHIP at home!) and even in those two, he put forth an excellent 19-4 KW ratio. This is a very good pitcher in what is an underrated D'backs rotation. Kenta Maeda goes here for the smoking-hot Dodgers. He threw seven shutout innings himself his last time out, but that came against the lowly Braves. When at home, the Dodgers are by far and away #1 in the league in run suppression (allow only 3.1 rpg!), but here at Chase Field, I expect the staff to struggle somewhat. Only Colorado (Coors Field!) averages more runs per game at home than Arizona does. Maeda has a 4.74 ERA and 1.282 WHIP on the road. I realize it's quite scary to step in front of this Dodgers' "runaway train" right now, but this price on Arizona w/ Godley pitching is quite remarkable and we're getting an additional 1.5 runs to work with. Consider Arizona has outscored its opponents at home this year by an average of 1.7 rpg. This team has the fourth best run differential in all of baseball at +114. 8* Run Line Arizona (+1.5) | |||||||
08-07-17 | Marlins v. Nationals -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
8* Run Line Washington (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Nationals -1.5. Obviously, there's always a risk in taking the money line favorite on the RL in that they could win by just a one-run margin. (Both of my wins Sunday were actually of the one-run variety). But, at least on paper, this matchup looks to be as lopsided as it gets as Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer goes for revenge against the team he faced in his last start. Of course, that start lasted all of one inning. Ironically, Scherzer had already "helped himself" at the plate in that game, by hitting his 1st career HR, but unfortunately he had to exit early due to a sore neck (reportedly due to "sleeping funny"). With an extra day of rest between starts, Scherzer should dominate here and I'll call for the Nats to win big. I think Washington is in a great spot right now. They just took two of three from the Cubs (at Wrigley) despite not starting Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg or Gio Gonzalez. By most objective measures, this is the third best team in baseball (behind the Dodgers and Astros) and as hot as LA has been, I'm not ruling out a World Series run by the team from the Nation's Capital. Now they give the baseball to a rested Scherzer who is having himself another unbelievable year. That 14-8 TSR is quite misleading when you consider he ranks 1st in the NL in both strikeouts (201) and WHIP (0.841) as well as 2nd in ERA (2.21). Scherzer actually has a case of double revenge against the Marlins, who not only benefited from his early exit last time out, but were able to beat him (2-1) back on 6.21 despite Scherzer taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning! Scherzer has also recorded at least 9 K's in every start but one dating back to Memorial Day. The pitcher Scherzer will face off against tonight is the same one he faced off with in the abbreviated outing back on 8.1. That would be Chris O'Grady, who was about as undeserving of a win as undeserving can be that day. O'Grady lasted only three innings and gave up six runs (2 HR's), but somehow Miami was able to claw its way back to a 7-6 victory. The Marlins are 4-1 in O'Grady's five starts so far, but his ERA (5.40) and WHIP (1.600) indicate that record is quite lucky. The Marlins' offense has also been pretty non-existent of late (.210 BA L7 games), so facing Scherzer, support for O'Grady is likely to be minimal, if not completely non-existent. The Nats should win this one "going away." 8* Run Line Washington (-1.5) | |||||||
08-06-17 | Dodgers v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
8* Run Line NY Mets (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Mets +1.5. With another loss yday (7-4), the Mets are now 0-5 head to head w/ the Dodgers in 2017. That record isn't terribly surprising given where the two teams currently reside in the standings. The Dodgers have the best overall record in MLB (78-32) and have won an astounding 43 of their past 50 games. The Mets, meanwhile, have dropped 8 of 10 to fall 10 games below the "Mendoza Line" (.500). But sweeping the same team twice is becoming less and less commonplace in today's game (parity!) and tonight marks the Mets' FINAL chance in '17 to beat LA. I did play them yday as the pitching matchup was far too slanted in the Dodgers' favor. However, that's not the case tonight. I realize I said the same thing back on Friday, but who could have imagined Yu Darvish's National League debut going as well it di? I do not anticipate the same level of effectiveness tonight from Hyun-Jin Ryu. Consider that the Dodgers have NEVER swept a season series from the Mets in their history. The team's 43-7 pace is the best mark over a 50-game span since ... 1912! At some point, there will have to be some semblence of regression. The team has certainly benefited from a number of career years from various players and their record in one-run games is a fortuitous 19-10. Playing tonight's game the way we are (Mets +1.5) can at least counteract that good fortune. The Mets actually led 3-0 last night, scoring all three of those runs in the first inning, an advantage they held all the way until the sixth. But then they allowed LA to score seven straight times over the final four frames. All seven runs scored were the product of a home run. Ryu is coming off one of his better outings of the season as he held the Giants scoreless over seven innings. But that's a bottom two offense in all of baseball he was up against. His start previous to that one came at home against an AL team (Minnesota) that had to adjust to not having a DH. Ryu rarely goes deep into games anymore. In fact, that last start marked the first time he went at least six innings since June 5th. Eight of his last 10 outings have seen him last six innings or fewer. As for Mets' starter Steven Matz, yes, he's struggling but at least he's 2-0 all-time vs. LA (in the regular season) w/ a 2.51 ERA. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5) | |||||||
08-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
10* Run Line San Francisco (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. San Fran suffered yet another excruciating loss w/ Madison Bumgarner on the hill last night, 2-1 here at home to Arizona. It was their second time in less than a week that they lost by one run w/ "MadBum" on the hill. There can be no sugarcoating what a "nightmare" season that has been for the Giants, who are -31.6 units at the betting window, thanks to 69 losses, 17 of which have been by one run (three in the last seven days!). In fact, only three teams in all of baseball have played more one-run games this season than the Giants' 34. One of them is Arizona, who has played 37. So given that and what happened last night, the RL seems like a very logical option to me for tonight. The Giants were ML favorites w/ Bumgarner (1-8 TSR) on the hill last night, but now that he's been beaten the script has been predictably "flipped" for tonight and very well could be for tomorrow as well. The starter going tonight is Chris Stratton, who is making just his 2nd career start. His 1st came all the way back on July 6th (at Detroit) and while he allowed five runs (in 6 IP), note that he was summoned to start just 20 minutes before the scheduled first pitch due to Johnny Cueto (who was supposed to go) having an inner ear infection. That obviously made it a tough spot, especially consider it was an AL park to boot, meaning he had to deal w/ a DH. Here, it will be an Arizona team that doesn't score nearly as much on the road as it does at home (saw that last night!). In fact, on the current road trip (we're eight games in so far), the D'backs have been held to four or fewer runs six times and they're batting just .218. Their scoring average dips a full run and a half per game compared to at home and as a result they have a losing record (27-28) outside of Chase Field. The D'backs will start Taijuan Walker in this game. His last four starts have all resulted in team losses, even though he's actually pitched pretty well. But the offense has failed to support him, averaging just 2.0 rpg in the four starts. Arizona has been quite profitable to bet on this season, but rarely are they in this price range on the road. In fact, it's just the EIGHTH time all year that they find themselves above -125 on the ML on the raod. Their 20 one-run wins are the MOST in all of MLB this season and I see the Giants doing no worse than a one-run loss here. 10* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5) | |||||||
08-04-17 | Hamilton +10.5 v. Edmonton | Top | 28-33 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
10* Hamilton (9:30 ET): This line is a direct result of what happened last week when the Ti-Cats were humiliated in Calgary, losing 60-1. The loss drops them to 0-5 SU (CFL's only winless team) and they're now a real ugly 7-20-2 ATS their last 29 games overall (1-8 ATS L9 road games). So, needless to say they're not being given much of a shot here (on the road) against the league's lone unbeaten, Edmonton, who moved to 5-0 last week w/ an impressive 37-26 home win over B.C. But it sure does appear as if the "sharp money" hasn't "taken the bait" in this one as the line has come down - rather significantly - despite the majority of bets actually being placed on the Eskimos. I'll take the points w/ the "unpopular" side here as well as there's no way Hamilton can be as bad as they were last week. They should come out highly motivated for this encounter. In terms of the value we're getting here, look no further than the previous meeting for a point of reference. These teams met just two weeks ago, in Ontario, and Edmonton checked in as only a three-point favorite for that game. They won, but only by a score of 31-28. So you can see how much influence last week had on the oddsmakers here. We're now able to get several extra points of value that we wouldn't have otherwise. Note that Hamilton actually led that first meeting, 25-13, before succumbing to a fourth quarter comeback. They still led 28-23 w/ two minutes remaining and Edmonton did not take its first lead of the game until the GW TD was scored w/ 23 seconds to go. Close games have been the rule and not the exception in CFL this year, so taking points (especially this many) onlky seems natural. Edmonton may be the league's lone unbeaten, but they are nowhere close to having the best scoring differential. That belongs to the rival Stampeders (+109). In fact, the Eskimos have only outscored their five opponents this year by a cumulative 23 points, or an average of LESS than 5.0 per game. They were nine-point favorites here at home back in Week 2, but failed to cover against Montreal in a 23-19 win. In fact, last week's win over B.C. was the team's first this year by more than four points. This is a classic "buy low" scenario as Hamilton is not as bad as it looked last week. 10* Hamilton | |||||||
08-04-17 | Dodgers v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
8* Run Line NY Mets (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Mets +1.5. Yes, it's a bit scary to try and fade the Dodgers right now (21-3 since July 4th!) and tonight's game bears significance in that it is Yu Darvish's debut wearing "the Blue." But at this price, getting Jacob deGrom and an additional 1.5 runs to work with (at home!) is simply too good to pass up. Plus, I'm not sold that there eventually won't be some "buyer's remorse" w/ Darvish as his Texas tenure ended in somewhat disastrous fashion w/ him giving up 10 runs in just 3 2/3 IP against a Miami team that is certainly not to be feared. The Mets lineup is capable of scoring and should give deGrom enough here that they do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. Take the 1.5. The Mets just dropped two of three in Colorado (tough place to play) w/ both losses coming by one run. They lost Thursday on a bases loaded walk. Tuesday's loss, also by a 5-4 score, also came in the final at-bat. So, the reality is that the Mets came very close to handing Colorado its first losing home series in over a month. (The win came by a score of 10-5 Wednesday, so they actually scored more runs than they gave up in the series). Again, I'm not too concerned w/ the runs allowed side of the ledger this evening, not w/ deGrom on the bump. He had won eight straight starts prior to taking the loss his last time out, a one-run decision. He's still allowed 2 ER or less in eight of his last nine starts. He comes in w/ a 2.27 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in 10 home starts this year. While he's never beaten LA in five career regular season tries, deGrom has posted in a 2.94 ERA in those starts. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball (76-32) and have outscored the opposition by 187 runs over the course of the year. Impressive as that sounds, the club has certainly enjoyed some good fortune in '17, getting career years from a number of players and going 19-10 in one-run games. Sure, the last time they lost a game to a team other than the Braves was July 2nd! They are an insane 41-7 their L48 games overall, but I'll point out that exactly half (7) of their last 14 wins have come by a one-run margin. Also, they aren't nearly as dominant on the road as they are at home. There's going to be a lot of pressure here on Darvish, whose TSR w/ Texas was only 9-13 this year. Let's also note that there is some fanfare here on the Mets side w/ top prospect Amed Rosario making his Citi Field debut tonight. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5) | |||||||
08-03-17 | Cowboys -1 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-18 | Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
8* Dallas (8:00 ET): The Cowboys were a lock to improve last year, no matter who the QB was. Now the initial thought is that a returning Tony Romo (missed most of '15) would be an obvious improvement over the terrible play the team got under center from Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel. However, enthusiam quickly had to be tempered when Romo was lost (again) in the preseason. But what no one foresaw was rookie Dak Prescott coming in and leading the team to a 13-3 SU record (top record in NFC). Now there is no doubt Dallas will win FEWER games in 2017 (what a difference a year makes!), but that doesn't matter here in the preseason. I do like them to win (and cover) tonight's HOF Game in Canton, Ohio. Arizona is a team that regressed in 2016. Ironically, it was they (and not the Cowboys) that were supposed to be one of the top teams in the NFC last year. They were coming off their own 13-3 SU finish in '15 when they made it to (and got crushed in) the NFC Champ Game. Instead, they slipped down to 7-8-1, even though they actually outscored the opposition by 56 pts over the course of the season. Expect them to win more games this year. Long-term, an heir apparent for Carson Palmer must be found. I'll tell you who is NOT the man for that job - Blaine Gabbert - who will start this HOF Game. Gabbert is expected to play the entirety of the first half here, not a good sign considering he has been one of the worst QB's since coming into the league back in '11. According to HC Bruce Arians, no starters will even suit up here for the Cardinals. Even backup QB Drew Stanton isn't expected to play. After Gabbert, it will be undrafted rookie Trevor Knight coming in under center. Even against what will likely be a pretty "vanilla" defense, I can't see the Cardinals scoring many points tonight. Reportedly, it was just a few days ago that the Cardinals had an "awful" practice (Arians' words). Now Dallas isn't going to play any of its starters either, but Kellen Moore is probably a more serviceable QB than Gabbert at this point. The Cowboys are also the deeper of these two teams right now. Were this a regular season game, I'd consider the Cardinals, but it's preseason and I'll side w/ "America's Team." 8* Dallas | |||||||
08-03-17 | Calgary v. Toronto +5.5 | Top | 41-24 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:35 ET): Calgary has been the class of this league for the last several years and if you had any doubt that would continue into 2017, they sent a message "loud and clear" last Saturday w/ a 60-1 beatdown of Hamilton. But as good as the Stamps have been, I can't help but think this is a classic overlay as they now have hit to hit the road for the first time in three weeks. Their last road game, at Montreal, resulted in an outright 30-23 loss as four-point favorites. You can bet Toronto will be fired up for this one as the Argos are off a 37-28 loss at Saskatchewan, which also took place last Saturday. I'm always leery of laying points on the road, no matter the sport, and CFL is no different. Take the points here. Toronto did not fare well against Calgary last season, as they were swept in the season series. They lost by 18 and 28 points respectively and going back further have actually dropped six in a row to the Stamps (last win was in '13). But even though they lost LW, the Argos are a better team this year than last. QB Ricky Ray has thrown for at least 300 yards in every game this season and as a result the offense is averaging an impressive 404 YPG. Their scoring average is "just" 25.3 points per game, but they've topped that in every game but one, a disappointing Week 2 effort where they lost to B.C., 32-15. The defense is allowing just 342 yards per game, so this team is a lot better than the 3-3 SU record shows. Meanwhile, all of Calgary's statistics are going to be skewed because of last week. It is interesting to note however, that the Stamps (4-1-1) are still "just" +66 YPG compared to their opponents while the Argos are +62 YPG, a very comparable number. In terms of yards per game gained, these are the top two offenses in the league right now. Tip your cap to the pivot Ray, who is on pace to break the legendary Doug Flutie's single-season passing mark of 6,619 yards. His fewest number of passing yards in a game this season is 323 and he's averaging 363 YPG. He's completing 69.2% of his pass attempts as well. That Toronto defense also happens to lead the league in sacks w/ 19, so don't be surprised if they make life for Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell quite uncomfortable. 10* Toronto | |||||||
08-02-17 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
8* Run Line St. Louis (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Cards +1.5. St. Louis was my only loss yday, but they only lost by one run, so in that regard this play certainly makes a lot of sense. The loss was a "double whammy" of sorts for the Redbirds, who are now not only 3.5 games back of the Brew Crew, but also 5.5 behind the first place Cubs (who also won Tuesday) in the NL Central. The Wild Card, at this point, looks like an unrealistic goal. So the division is their only shot to make the playoffs and thus this series takes on an added importance. Yes, I realize the same holds true for Milwaukee, but as discussed in yday's analysis, these two clubs rate virtually even (almost identical run differentials). Therefore, the "added insurance" that the RL provides seems to be a nice luxury to have in this one. Note that all three runs that the Brewers scored off of Carlos Martinez last night came in the first inning. That three-run inning held as St. Louis could only muster a pair of runs, although they dd outhit the Brewers for the game, 7-5. After that 1st inning, all Milwaukee's lineup could manage was a pair of infield singles. While losing like that w/ (arguablly) your best starter on the hill is tough, it also bodes well for tonight's starter Luke Weaver, who makes his second start replacing the injured Adam Wainwright in the rotation. Weaver's first start was not great as he allowed four runs in 5 IP, but it also didn't help that his offense was shutout. His only mistake was a grand slam, which obviously accounted for all the runs allowed. "I thought Luke did a terrific job," manager Mike Matheny said. "His stuff looked sharp. It was one rough inning there." I'd agree w/ that assement and look for better overall results tonight. Milwaukee will counter w/ Brent Suter, a pitcher that has all of a sudden caught fire. He hasn't lost over his L5 turns and has a 1.50 ERA. He was dominant his last time out, holding the Cubs w/o a run for seven innings of four-hit ball. But that kind of performance will be difficult to replicate. The Cards actually saw Suter in his first start of the year and were able to scored three times off him in only 4 2/3 IP. For the record, only the Phillies have played more one-run games this season than the Cardinals' 36. Three of their last four games have been decided by one run as have five of their L10. Three of Milwaukee's last four games have also been decided by one run. No worse than a one-run loss here for the road team. 8* Run Line St. Louis (+1.5) | |||||||
07-31-17 | Royals v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Orioles +1.5. Back in early May, these two teams faced off (in Kansas City) and the Royals swept the three-game set, which in retrospect was the beginning of their turnaround. Here in Baltimore this week, I do NOT anticipating the Royals having the same level of success they did over two months ago. Sure, they arrive in Camden Yards having won 10 of 11 (only loss in extra innings) and are now a season-best seven games above .500. But the numbers show that this club is the definition of average as they've scored and allowed an identical number of runs over the course of the season. Baltimore may own one of the AL's worst run differentials, but they're a better team at home where their record is 30-21. They also just won B2B games in Texas. No worse than a one-run loss here for the home team. The Royals remain fairly "offensively challenged" as they rank 22nd in runs scored and 28th in OBP. Yesterday's victory could be considered somewhat "fortunate" as they trailed 3-1 heading into the 8th, which is when Alex Gordon's two-run triple proved to be the difference in a four-run rally. Save for 16-2 and 16-4 wins over the Tigers, KC has hardly been dominating opponents during this 10-1 stretch of theirs. Something to keep an eye on is that while they've "cleaned up" as underdogs this season (+22.6 units), they have lost money as ML favorite (-8.7). This will also be just the second time ALL SEASON that they've been listed higher than -125 on the ML in a road game! So, oddsmakers have taken notice and we should react accordingly. Note that all three games these teams played at Kauffman Stadium back in May were decided by one run! A big key for the Orioles moving forward is the return of closer Zach Britton to his regular closing role. For the first time since April, he worked consecutive games (Sat-Sun) and it's no coincidence that Baltimore won both. Ubaldo Jimenez will be starting things off tonight and in order to get to Britton, he'll have to pitch similar to how he did his last time out when he held the Rays to just two runs on three hits over 6 IP. I was also impressed by his season-high 9 K's in that start. Kansas City will be going w/ lefty Danny Duffy here. Mirroring his team's overall results, Duffy struggles a bit more on the road w/ a 4.09 ERA and 1.364 WHIP. He also remains a fairly low volume pitcher in terms of strikeouts. I think it's time the Royals started "giving some back." 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5) | |||||||
07-30-17 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
8* Run Line San Francisco (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am backing the Giants +1.5. Madison Bumgarner is now the starter for San Fran as they try and avoid a sweep. Bumgarner used to be a somewhat "automatic" play, but this year (cut short by injury), he has a 1-6 team start record w/ that one win coming his last time out. That's somewhat emblematic of this "lost" season for the Giants, who are now 40-65 and have the second worst record and run differential in all of baseball. They enter tonight trailing the rival Dodgers by an astounding 33.5 games! Los Angeles has been on a remarkable roll not just of late (won 7 straight!), but for the last couple months as they are a stunning 38-6 their L44 games! But I still believe Bumgarner being on the hill "means something" and in this case, I feel the Giants will do no worse than a one-run loss and the big lefty does give them their best shot at a win in this series. While he does have the 1-6 team start record, it should be pointed out that only one of MadBum's seven starts this year has not been quality. Last time out, he went only five innings, but gave up just one run (on six hits) as the Giants got the win, 11-3 over Pittsburgh. It was a much needed result for him and hopefully a turning point, at least for him individually. On the road this year, Bumgarner has a 2.89 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, so it's not as if he's pitched poorly. Nor has he pitched poorly in his career vs. LA as he owns a 14-9 record and 2.70 ERA in 27 career appearances. The Giants lost by just a run yday (2-1) and let's note they have played the third highest number of one-run games in all of baseball (32). The Dodgers are 73-31 overall and have the best record in baseball for a variety of reasons. Chief among them is that they are getting career years from a number of key players. I do not believe their current pace is anywhere near sustainable and whether it's in the final two months of the regular season, or the playoffs, I believe some regression is inevitable. Furthermore, tonight are able to go against the one member of the starting rotation that has a losing record, that being Hyun-Jin Ryu, whose TSR is 6-8 and he has a 4.40 ERA and 1.452 WHIP. Rarely does Ryu go deep into games and he lasted just five innings in his own return from the DL, last time out. Bumgarner is the better starter in this one and that makes this one of the few times the Giants have a real fighting chance against their rival in 2017. By the way, the teams are 6-6 head to head this season w/ half of the games decided by one run! 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5) | |||||||
07-27-17 | Reds +1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Reds +1.5. This will be the second series between these two teams (both of whom are going nowhere) in the last week. Miami took two of three last weekend at Great American Ballpark, though I cashed in on the Reds the one time they were victorious (Sunday). I'll again back them here as we have a situation where the same two starting pitchers are squaring off for a second straight time. Not from the Sunday game mind you, but from a 5-4 win by the Marlins on Saturday. That game saw both starters - Chris O'Grady for Miami and Robert Stephenson for Cincy - turn in less than stellar performance. But b/c O'Grady's side won, he comes in overvalued and it helps that the Marlins are off a stunning 22 run effort last night in Texas. I say the Reds do no worse than a one-run loss in this one. Lost in Miami's shocking offensive peformance Weds night is the fact their own pitching staff has surrendered a total of 20 runs the L2 games. This makes them quite the shaky ML favorite, even against a bottom-feeder like Cincinnati. O'Grady lasted only 4 2/3 innings and gave up three runs last Saturday, so he actually didn't even factor into the decision as the game was tied when he exited. He also issued SIX walks. Another troubling sign is that O'Grady is going less deep into games w/ each passing start. He went 5 1/3 his first start, then 5 his second and then just 4 2/3 last time out. He has a 5.40 ERA and 1.600 WHIP overall and his inability to go deep into games means trouble when you consider the bullpen has both been overworked and ineffective recently. Opponents are batting .316 against Marlins' pitching the L7 games with three different games of 10 runs. Quite simply, yesterday's performance by the Marlins was an aberration, not a sign of things to come. The Reds, admittedly, have had a terrible start to the second half. They've won just twice in 13 tries. This week has seen them go 0-3 against a pair of American League teams as they dropped a make-up game in Cleveland on Monday, then a pair of games in New York. They've also had to deal w/ both Washington and Arizona since the All-Star Break, so it's not like the schedule has been easy. Miami represents a clear drop in class compared to other recent opponents and it should be noted the previous series saw each team finish w/ exactly 11 runs. The Marlins come into this series w/o some key performers, such as Justin Bour and J.T. Riddle, both of whom are on the DL, plus reliever David Phelps was just sent to Seattle. Stephenson is making just his second start of the year here for the Reds and I'm willing to bank that it goes better than the first one. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5) | |||||||
07-24-17 | Ottawa v. Toronto -3 | Top | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 32 h 22 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:30 ET): What a terrible spot this is for Ottawa, who is playing for the second time in less than a week. Technically, this is still considered a Week 5 matchup, but the reality is that Toronto essentially has had a bye (last played on 7.13) while Ottawa is playing its sixth game of the season and doing so w/ only four days to prepare. Considering the Argos are at home, this price looks especially cheap. Already this season, they've gone to Ottawa and upset the Redblacks, 26-25 as 4.5-pt dogs. That's actually the lone game of the year that the defending Grey Cup Champs haven't covered, but I anticipate a far more lopsided result this time around. I took the points last time around w/ the Argos and this time will lay 'em! Ottawa did win last Wednesday, beating Montreal 24-19 in what was their first win of the campaign. But it was greatly aided by the Als turning the ball over four times, thereby nullifying a 493-420 edge they had in total yards. Also, take note that the Als were driving w/ a chance to win before being stopped on downs (inside the Redblacks' 20-yd line) w/ less than three minutes remaining. I look for Toronto QB Ricky Ray to take advantage of what should be a tired Redblacks defense here as Ray is the lone CFL pivot to throw for 300+ yards in every game this season. He's closing in on Doug Flutie's career CFL record. I give Toronto a big edge on special teams in this matchup as return man Martese Jackson recorded 339 yards in the previous game. While the Argos still lost to Winnipeg, 33-25, they did so despite having an edge in total yardage. Turnovers were again the story there as a -2 ratio doomed them. This is Toronto's first home game since 6.30, so you have to figure they'll be highly motivated to go out and perform well in front of the fanbase. But again, I have to go back to handicapping the situation here and the fact the Argos have had so much more time to prepare cannot be understated. If you recall my analysis from the first matchup of the year between these teams, I stated that the Redblacks would regress severely in 2017 and that they have (and will continue to do). 10* Toronto | |||||||
07-23-17 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -145 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
8* Run Line St. Louis (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Cardinals +1.5. After taking Friday's opener (a day game), the Cards lost yday here in the Windy City, 3-2. Though held to only three hits - total - for the entire game, the visitors still were in position to win before blowing a 2-0 lead in the bottom of the eighth. The loss marked the 20th time this year that the Cards lost a game in which they held a two-run lead, most in all of MLB. All five runs in yday's game were actually scored in the 8th. Despite the disappointing result Saturday and the lack of hitting, the Cards would have still been a RL winner. That's how I'll play them tonight as they do no worse than a one-run loss here. In my analysis for Friday's matchup, I talked about how there really is little difference between these teams' overall performances in 2017. Sure, the Cubs have a 3.5 game edge in the NL Central standings, but despite being under .500, not only have the Cards outscored their opponents this year, they also have a slightly better YTD run differential (+22 vs. +21) compared to their rivals. I have more faith in their pitching than the Cubs and that goes for tonight where Michael Wacha will toe the rubber. Wacha comes in rocking fine form as he 3-0 w/ a 0.87 ERA and 0.822 WHIP his L3 starts. Last time out, he tossed a complete game shutout, allowing just three hits w/ an 8-1 KW ratio against the Mets. In his last 26 2/3 IP, Wacha has allowed just THREE runs total. Overall, the team has won the last five times he's taken the mound. I feel comfortable putting my money on Wacha here. He hasn't lost a decision since May 30th. Cubs starter Jose Quintana will be making his Wrigley debut tonight, so the spotlight will be on him. Like Wacha, Quintana has a 3-0 TSR his L3 starts, which goes back to his tenure w/ the cross-town White Sox. Obviously, he's pitched at Wrigley before, but not as a member of the home team. As devastating as he looked in his Cubs debut last Sunday at Baltimore (seven scoreless innnings, struck out 12), he's facing a better - and less familiar - opponent here. The Cubs have been big money losers this season (-15.5 units) and have actually been outscored here at Wrigley Field. 8* Run Line St. Louis (+1.5) | |||||||
07-22-17 | Astros v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Orioles +1.5. I was aggressive in playing the O's on the money line last night (were +130) and very quickly that looked like a bad bet as they quickly fell down 5-0 after just two innings. Truthfully, they were never really "in it," but a five-run ninth at least satisfied run line bettors as the final score was 8-7. Given that result, I'll be a little more conservative today and grab the added insurance at what appears to be a great price. Admittedly, the starting pitching situation - from the Baltimore perspective - isn't a ton more desirable today compared to yesterday. But I feel Houston's starter won't be nearly as strong and thus I'm confident in saying the home team does no worse than a one-run loss here. Remember that the O's are still 29-20 at Camden Yards this year. Tonight will mark the season debut for Astros starter Colin McHugh. Elbow issues are what has kept him out. After a breakthrough 2015, McHugh regressed some LY, finishing just 13-10 w/ a 4.34 ERA. He's never pitched particularly well against Baltimore w/ a 6.08 ERA in five career starts. I sense he may struggle some in his first start of the year. The Orioles have a fairly potent lineup, one which has averaged 6.3 runs per game over the last week and 4.8 rpg for the year at home. They've now scored seven or more runs in four consecutive contests. Let us not forget about the absences the Astros are dealing w/ right now. Carlos Correa is out as is relief man Will Harris. We saw the impact Harris' absence had on the team last night. Correa is obviously irreplaceable. Before losing last night, the Orioles had won four in a row as they'd swept the Rangers, here at home. Chris Tillman, like his counterpart McHugh, missed substantial time this year. He was out for the first month, but won his first start back (White Sox), tossing five scoreless innings on 5.3. He has not won since, a span of 11 starts, though the TSR is 4-7. Admittedly, he has not pitched well and that's reflected in the numbers. But he did look good his last time out, allowing just one run and two hits in 6 IP vs. Texas. This year's results are in stark contrast to 2016 where Tillman finished as one of the big money-earners in all of MLB (3rd in net units!). Again, I believe the O's can win here and they'll do no worse than a one run loss. 10* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5) | |||||||
07-21-17 | Winnipeg v. BC -4 | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
10* British Columbia (10:00 ET): Prior to the season commencing, the Leos were getting plenty of "Grey Cup love." We're starting to see why. After dropping the season opener in disappointing fashion (30-27 to Edmonton), they've won three in a row, all on the road. Now they return home to face a Winnipeg team that's off to a somewhat surprising 2-1 start. Normally, I might be unwilling to "touch" a game like this, but b/c of the chance B.C. may be w/o its starting QB, we are able to get an incredible value on them here. In case you are unaware, backup Travis Lulay came in last week and threw for 436 yards in the 41-26 win at Hamilton. That set the record for most yards passing by a QB that did not start the game in CFL history! Lay the points here. Moving forward, B.C. will obviously want Jonathon Jennings back at the pivot position. But last week showed there isn't any kind of significant drop off w/ Lulay in there. He completed over 80% of his passes w/ three TD's in the win. Winnipeg is hardly any kind of defensive stalwart as in their lone road game to date, they gave up 40 points and that was against Saskatchewan. Lulay is no newcomer to this league either; he's won 40 games in his CFL career and was voted Most Outstanding Player back in 2011. I have to say that I was a bit shocked to find that the Bombers have covered the L5 meetings between these Western Division rivals. They'd even won four in a row - straight up - before a one-point win by the Leos last November. But the tides have turned and now B.C. is the better team - by far. Quite simply, it's time for some payback. While B.C. soundly beat Hamilton last week, even overcoming four turnovers, Winnipeg was a little fortunate to beat Toronto as they were actually outgained in the contest (354-336). Meanwhile, B.C. outgained Hamilton 507-424. The Bombers clearly benefited last week from a +2 turnover margin. Don't look for that to happen again Friday as the Leos had only three TO's in the first three games before more than doubling that number last week. Also, despite giving up over 400 yds LW, the Leos defense has proven itself to be stout. They'd allowed just 31 pts total the previous two games. 10* British Columbia | |||||||
07-18-17 | Phillies +1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
8* Run Line Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. The Phils cashed for me on the RL last night, but the 6-5 loss (in 10 innings) means the revenge angle is still in play here as they've now lost four in a row to the Marlins (were swept here back in late May). In yesterday's analysis I mentioned that no team has played more one-run games this year than has Philly (36) and it's not even close. The fact that they are 11-25 in those contests certainly has a large hand in the team owning the worst overall record in MLB (30-61). But be aware that their YTD run differential remains better than those of the Padres and Giants. I'll continue to take advantage of the rare occurrence of Miami being in this price range Monday's starter for Marlins was Tom Koehler. He entered in w/ a terrible 13.03 ERA and 2.689 WHIP His previous three starts. The Phillies were able to get to him early w/ four runs in the second, but sadly were unable to do much else the rest of the game. Incredibly though, the Marlins have a starter going tonight whose 2017 performance has been even WORSE compared to Koehler! Like Koehler, Adam Conley had been demoted earlier in the year because of it. Tonight wil be Conley's first start at the big league level in over two months and for good reason ... in his L3 starts, he posted a 15.18 ERA and 2.343 WHIP! He is 0-3 at home this season. He has not faced the Phillies in 2017. His minor league resume was hardly impressive either as he finished 3-3 w/ a 5.49 ERA. Making this matchup somewhat interesting is the fact that Phillies starter Vincent Velasquez has also been persona non grata for the last month or so. But in his case, it was injury, not ineffectivenees, that caused him to miss time. Velasquez has been out w/ an elbow injury since May 30th, ironically suffered against these Marlins. Earlier in the year (back in April), Velasquez had pitched quite well against the Fish, holding them to just three runs in 6 1/3 IP at Citizens Bank Park, a game the Phils won 7-4. Unlike Conley, Velasquez's rehab starts went relatively well. I'll call for no worse than a one-run loss by the visitors here. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5) | |||||||
07-17-17 | Phillies +1.5 v. Marlins | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 12 m | Show |
8* Run Line Philadelphia (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Phillies +1.5. Plays on the Phillies have been few and far between this season and figure to grow even more infrequent as the season winds down. The club enters Monday w/ the worst overall record in baseball (30-60) and that's after winning Sunday (5-2 at Milwaukee). I would like to point out, however, that both the Giants and Padres have worse run differentials over the course of the season. The Phils also come into this series w/ revenge on their minds after being swept by the Marlins here in Miami, back in late May. Speaking of getting swept, that's what happened to the Fish (at the hands of the Dodgers) over the weekend. Based on the starting pitching matchup, the home team is clearly overvalued in this one and I feel confident in saying Philly will do no worse than a one-run loss here. Marlins starter Tom Koehler simply should never be in this price range, no matter the opponent. He enters Monday w/ a 7.20 ERA and 1.733 WHIP in 10 starts, seven of those resulting in team losses. Recently, the numbers have only gotten worse. While this includes one start that predates a demotion to the minors, his L3 big-league starts have seen him produce a 13.03 ERA and 2.689 WHIP, truly wretched numbers indeed. This will be his first time pitching at home since 5.16 when he allowed eight runs in just three innings against Houston. Since returning to the big leagues, Koehler has allowed 10 runs in 6 2/3 innings, although four of those were unearned. Still, Miami lost both games and Koehler isn't likely to turn things around any time soon. Nor are the Marlins as a whole. Koehler did not pitch in the last series w/ the Phillies. Meanwhile, I like what I saw out of Phillies' starter Jack Eickhoff his last time out as he blanked the Padres for five innings, that coming on the heels of another impressive performance, that being holding Arizona to just one run in six innings. Both starts did come at home, but while his TSR is 0-7 on the road, this will be one of the weaker opponents he's had to face outside of Miami. The Marlins are averaging just 4.2 rpg at home this season. As was the case w/ Koehler, Eickhoff did not pitch in the previous series between these two teams. There have been four different times this season that the Phillies have lost an Eickhoff start by exactly one run. Their last loss (Saturday) was also of the one-run variety. Overall, no team has played more one-run games this season than the Phils (35!) and it's not even close. (Arizona is the only other team w/ more than 27). The fact they've gone 11-24 in those 35 games makes the RL more valuable here and they're probably "due" to win one of these one-run affairs sometime soon anyway. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5) | |||||||
07-16-17 | Rangers v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 4 m | Show |
8* Run Line Kansas City (2:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Royals +1.5. Six times the Rangers and Royals have met this season and all six times the combo of Rangers & Under has hit. Today marks the final time KC can achieve victory at Texas' expense in 2017. They've taken two hard luck losses to begin this series, first blowing a 3-0 lead on Friday, then losing 1-0 last night w/ the game's only run scored in the top of the ninth. The irony here is that for much of the year it has been the Rangers who have experienced the hard luck, which some (myself included!) would say was "deserved" after LY's unsustainable blueprint that saw 36 of their 95 wins come by one run. Thanks to the L2 days and the fact Yu Darvish is pitching for the Rangers today, we are now able to get some added insurance on the Royals, which was NOT the case either Friday or Saturday. We should not be too intimidated by the fact Darvish is pitching here however, as the Rangers have lost his L5 starts w/ him turning in a 5.61 ERA and 1.472 WHIP the last three. Granted, he was a bit of a hard luck loser in his final start before the All-Star Break (allowed just two runs on three hits in 7 1/3 IP), but note he did also walk four batters there. That was after getting hammered by Boston in his previous start. He was sharp against the Royals back in April, but did allow 2 HR's. I've said this in my analysis each of the last two days (and it hasn't mattered), but the Rangers' bullpen is not good on the road as their ERA/WHIP is 6.17/1.730. The Royals have wasted two perfectly good starts from Jason Hammel and Danny Duffy so far in this series. Today, Ian Kennedy goes. Kennedy can probably empathize w/ Darvish's winless stretch as he too went a long period w/o a win. In fact, he was winless over his first 11 starts of 2017. But since that time, he's 3-0 w/ a 2.67 ERA. Incredibly, the Royals have lost 12 straight times to the Rangers. You just don't see streaks like that very often. I'm a firm believer in the revenge angle (for a previous sweep of three or more games), but given how the first two games of this series have gone, I'll be a little more conservative and say the home team won't do any worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5) | |||||||
07-14-17 | Calgary -4.5 v. Montreal | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
8* Calgary (7:00 ET): Calgary, who has been the CFL's best team over the past three seasons (despite winning only one Grey Cup), is off to yet another strong start here in 2017. They are w/o a loss (2-0-1) and have won B2B in impressive fashion after opening the campaign w/ a tie against Ottawa (Grey Cup rematch). At 34.3 PPG, they are - easily - the league's highest scoring team. Montreal is somewhat at the opposite end of the spectrum. Their games - on average - are the lowest scoring in the league right now at just 38.0 points per game and that's largely due to an offense that is averaging a league-low 17.3 PPG. While that number is likely to start going up, I feel the Als are severely outclassed here. Lay the short number. Close games have generally been the rule this year in CFL, but the Stampeders are off an easy 29-10 win last week, on the road, over Winnipeg. They forced three turnovers and shut the Blue Bombers out in the second half. Something curious when examining past head to head matchups between these two is that the Stamps have failed to cover any of the past five meetings. They've actually lost three of them outright, including LY's lone visit to Molson Stadium, by a score of 17-8 as nine-point chalk. Considering the respective trajectories of the two franchises during this time, Montreal holding a 3-2 series edge makes little sense. But what it has done is create a ton of value on the road favorite here. One would have to go all the way back to 2013 to find the last time the Stamps were favored by fewer than five points in a game against the Als. Montreal has yet to score more than 20 points in a game this season. Calgary's 29 pts last week were their fewest scored in any game to date this year. That right there should tell you what the Als are up against here. Montreal is just 3-11 ATS its L11 home games and keep in mind it's one win this year came by a single point over Saskatchewan, who was the worst team in the league last year. Calgary has covered 8 of its last 11 road games. I just can't understand why the line would be so low here as the Stamps are clearly the better team and probably due to cover against the Als anyway. 8* Calgary | |||||||
07-08-17 | Hamilton +2 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
10* Hamilton (10:00 ET): For the second consecutive week, whatever homefield advantage Saskatchewan might hope to enjoy is mitigated by the fact they'll be facing a team off a bye. I played against the Rough Riders in this same spot last week and sure enough they fell to Winnipeg, 43-40 in overtime. Defenders will point out that the Riders held a 10-0 advantage after the first quarter, but they also trailed 34-23 entering the fourth. Being that it was the first ever regular season game played at the new Mosiac Stadium, that will be a tough loss to get over. Meanwhile, the Ti-Cats have had more than two full weeks to stew over an embarrassing 32-15 loss at Toronto in Week 1 where they were actually 3.5-pt favorites. That's the most lopsided single-game result of the CFL season to date and as a result, I think Hamilton is primed for a bounce back. The Ti-Cats did not end 2016 well, dropping six of their final seven games w/ the lone win coming in OT (against eventual Grey Cup Champ Ottawa!). They also haven't had much luck at the betting window either, going just 1-8-1 ATS their L10 games. I say that latter record signals a market correction is forthcoming. Note that last year, they were favored against the Riders in both matchups and beat them 53-7 at home. They were 5.5-pt favorites here in Regina, although they did lose that game 20-18. But now that the market has shifted to them being an underdog, they are where the value lies. Saskatchewan, as I said last week, is somewhat unaccustomed to the role of favorite. They were chalk all of three times last season, two of those coming in the first three games. After last week, they have now lost outright each of the last four times they have been favored. Going back to the start of the 2015 season, the Riders have been favored nine times and lost outright EIGHT of them! The last time they won and covered as chalk was September of '15. I'm 2-0 ATS in Saskatchewan games this season and plan on making it 3-0 ATS here. 10* Hamilton | |||||||
07-08-17 | Tigers +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
8* Run Line Detroit (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Tigers +1.5. While they've struggled at home all season long (MLB worst, by far and away, at -21.8 units), Cleveland has won big each of the L2 days here at Progressive Field. I was on them Thursday when they routed lowly San Diego, 11-2. But, despite being large ML favorites last night, I thought the situation dictated an appropriate time to fade them as Carlos Carrasco and Jordan Zimmerman were facing off for a second straight start and the latter had revenge. But it was not to be as the Tigers lost 11-2. Tonight, the same situation presents itself w/ Justin Verlander again facing off against Mike Clevinger. The odds are not nearly as dramatically in the Indians favor this time around and I don't see Clevinger beating Verlander for a second straight time. But for a little "added insurance," we'll play the run line here. Last Sunday saw the Indians win a wild 11-8 game w/ both of tonight's starters on the mound. Verlander, admittedly, turned in a poor effort as he allowed seven runs in just 3 1/3 innings. That paved the way for what appeared to be an easy Cleveland win as Clevinger allowed just one run on two hits through six. But the usually strong Indians' bullpen allowed the game to get a lot closer than it should have been as the final score was "only" 11-8 in their favor. That said, I look for a reversal of fortune on Saturday. While it's true that Clevenger has allowed 2 ER or less in four straight starts, he's also never lasted more than six innings in any of them. Also note that last September, Verlander and the Tigers beat Clevinger and the Indians 12-0 w/ Clevinger giving up five runs in only two innings. In only two of his 10 starts has Clevinger lasted longer than six innings. He's also winless at home (0-4 TSR) w/ a 4.50 ERA. History also supports a Detroit bounce back in this spot as they have gone 6-1 this season after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. Also, Cleveland is still w/o skipper Terry Francona, who is recovering from a minor procedure for an irregular heartbeat. As for Verlander, while he's had two bad starts against the Indians this year, he also had one good one, that coming back on 5.2 where he allowed just two runs and four hits in 7 IP. Prior to the bad outing his last time out, he'd given up 3 ER or fewer in six straight starts. No worse than a one-run loss here for the Tigers. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5) | |||||||
07-08-17 | Toronto +4.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 26-25 | Win | 100 | 51 h 15 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:00 ET): Two full weeks of CFL action are in the books and once again close games have been the "rule" and not the exception. Six of the first eight games have been decided by four points or less. Interestingly enough, the two games that have not both involved Toronto. The Argos opened the year by thrashing Hamilton, 32-15, as 3.5-pt home dogs. I was fortunate enough to be on them there. Last week, however, they came out on the short end of the stick as this time they were blown out, 28-15 by B.C. (I was not on that game). Now they hit the road for the 1st time in 2017 and anticipating a close game, I'll again back them in this spot. The opponent is the defending Grey Cup Champion Ottawa, but the Redblacks have struggled in the defense of their title, opening 0-1-1. At least Redblacks' backers have profited this year as the team is 2-0 ATS. The first two weeks were both rematches of LY's Grey Cup against Calgary. In Week 1, here at home, it was a 31-31 tie as the Redblacks blew a 14-point lead. The following week, in Calgary, their defense let them down in a 43-39 loss. While the Stampeders are arguably the class of the CFL, you have to be a little concerned over the Redblacks' defense, or rather lack of it, as they've allowed an average of 418 YPG so far. Compare that to Toronto, who has outgained their first two foes by 121 YPG. Granted, that's due to the one dominant performance against Hamilton, but I certainly believe the Argos are more than capable of keeping this one close, if not take the game outright. The number of sacks, league-wide, continue to decline. But don't tell that to the Argos' defense, which leads the league w/ nine. No other team has more than five. On offense, QB Ricky Ray threw for 500+ yards in Week 1 before predictably coming down to Earth last week against B.C. I look for a bounce back here. What's key to keep in mind here is that Ottawa was a very fortunate Grey Cup winner in 2016. They won the East Division w/ a losing record (8-9-1) and negative point differential (-12) before getting hot in the playoffs. They are due for some major regression in 2017. They are just 2-7 ATS their L9 games as a favorite. Meanwhile, the Argos are due to reverse LY's poor finish at the betting window where they closed on an 0-7 ATS run. Take the points. 10* Toronto | |||||||
07-07-17 | Tigers +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
10* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Tigers +1.5. It's been awhile since we've seen the situation that presents itself here in this battle of AL Central rivals. We have an "immediate revenge" situation as the two starting pitchers are facing off for a second straight time. Last Saturday saw Carlos Carrasco and Cleveland beat Jordan Zimmerman and Detroit w/ the former starter tossing seven strong innings where he allowed just one run on four hits. Obviously, the odds are not in Zimmerman's favor here in Cleveland, but history shows that in spots such as this it's best to take the pitcher who lost the previous matchup. Because of the price and the "added insurance" it provides, I'll be playing the Tigers on the Run Line. Carrasco has mostly been sharp of late as the Indians have won his L5 starts. But he's not been immune to a poor outing by any stretch of the imagination. Two starts ago, he picked up one of the more extraordinary no-decisions of the entire MLB season as the team rallied to beat Texas 15-9 after Carrasco had allowed eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings! Also, something to keep in mind is that Cleveland has been a huge money-loser at home this year as their 19-23 record has them down a MLB-worst 22.8 units. No other team in baseball is down more than 13.3 units in home games this year. Yes, I played the Tribe as big favorites last night, but that was against a terrible Padres team that had shockingly taken the first two games of the series. Detroit comes off a 5-4 homestand where they alternated wins and losses throughout. That pattern has them "due" to lose here, but as big of underdogs as they are on the ML here, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them defy the odds. They are 5-4 against Cleveland this year, including 2-1 at Progressive Field. Zimmerman was a bit unlucky to have allowed four runs last Saturday as he only gave up five hits in 5 2/3 IP. I think he's in line for a quality start tonight. Remember Cleveland is w/o their manager, Terry Francona, right now. They are also just 3-7 as home favorites of -175 to -250 on the money line, which helps explain those massive losses at the betting window. The Tigers do no worse than a one run loss here. 10* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET) | |||||||
07-06-17 | Orioles +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
10* Run Line Baltimore (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Orioles +1.5. Baltimore and Minnesota are perhaps the American League's two most difficult teams to evaluate as we approach the All-Star Break. The O's 40-44 record doesn't sound all that bad, but when you consider they were playing .667 baseball through the first 33 games (22-11), clearly this is a team that appears to be in decline. Also, a -83 YTD run differential that is tied for the fourth worst in all of baseball paints an ugly portrait. But then there's the Twins, who have been outscored by 55 runs themselves, yet are somehow two games OVER .500! So while Baltimore's "market correction" has already taken hold, I anticipate the same to happen to Minnesota in the second half. Here, just to be safe, I'll take the "added insurance" that the RL provides. Baltimore certainly is not a good road team. Their record away from Camden Yards is 15-28. But, thankfully, Minnesota isn't a good home team. In fact, the Twins' 18-26 record at Target Field is currently the worst home mark of any team in baseball! To put that record in its proper perspective, note only four other teams are more than two games below .500 at home this season. Something to watch for in this series is offensive improvement from the road team. The Orioles just got swept in Milwaukee, scoring only three runs in three games, but that's a National League park where they were w/o the designated hitter. Tonight's pitching matchup looks like a good one as it's Baltimore's best pitcher, Dylan Bundy, going up against Minnesota's second best pitcher, Jose Berrios. Berrios has been the one Twins' starter unaffected by the teams' woes at home, but lately he's also shown signs of regression w/ a 5.12 ERA and 1.345 WHIP his L3 turns overall. He gave up three home runs in his last outing, albeit on the road. Of course, so too did Bundy (allow 3 HR's his last start) and that was at home. However, there's been only one time all season where Bundy delivered consecutive non-quality outings. Another key is that the O's now have Zach Britton back in the bullpen. Hopefully, they'll be able to use him some tonight. Something I have yet to even mention - and this is arguably the key to the play - is that Baltimore has revenge here for a three-game sweep suffered at home back in late May. As any regular of mine will tell you, this is one of my favorite angles in handicapping MLB. I'll say the Orioles do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. 10* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5). | |||||||
07-03-17 | White Sox +1.5 v. A's | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 32 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi White Sox (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the White Sox +1.5. Chicago was a fortunate winner Sunday as they rallied in the bottom of the eighth for a 6-5 win over Texas. It was their second rally in three days at the Rangers' expense and they've now won four of the last six games overall. While all four wins have been by one-run margins, here I feel safe in saying they'll be doing no worse than a one-run loss. This series w/ Oakland marks a revenge spot for the Pale Hose as last week saw them drop all three games at home to the A's. I feel that the rotation sets up a little better for them this go-around however, starting w/ Carlos Rodon tonight. Rodon made his return to the rotation last week. His first start of the year did not go all that well due to control issues. Six walks contributed to him allowing three runs (all unearned) in 5 IP and the Sox lost 12-3 to the Yankees. But it should be noted that Rodon also only allowed two hits in his time out on the mound. Also, he was facing the Yankees. This is the A's, the consensus worst team in the American League, a notion backed up both by record and run differential. Not only does Oakland come into this series as losers of five in a row overall, but they've also dropped seven consecutive home games as well! This home losing streak doesn't surprise me in the least as the A's are being outscored here by more than one-half run per game despite a 22-19 record. Starting opposite Rodon will be Jarrell Cotton, who shut the White Sox out (for five innings) his last time out. That start was cut short due to a blister on his right thumb, which in turn caused him to miss his last turn in the rotation. So he's working on more than 10 days rest here, which isn't always a good thing. More over, this is the first time in his career that Cotton has won B2B starts. Given that and the fact the A's swept the White Sox last time around, I'd say that Cotton and Oakland are almost "due" to lose here. It certainly doesn't help Cotton's cause that this start comes at home where he has a 7.09 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in six starts. Something tells me that the White Sox hitters will be better prepared for him this go-around and it should also be pointed out that Cotton had only three strikeouts the last time. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5) 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (9:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the White Sox +1.5. Chicago was a fortunate winner Sunday as they rallied in the bottom of the eighth for a 6-5 win over Texas. It was their second rally in three days at the Rangers' expense and they've now won four of the last six games overall. While all four wins have been by one-run margins, here I feel safe in saying they'll be doing no worse than a one-run loss. This series w/ Oakland marks a revenge spot for the Pale Hose as last week saw them drop all three games at home to the A's. I feel that the rotation sets up a little better for them this go-around however, starting w/ Carlos Rodon tonight. Rodon made his return to the rotation last week. His first start of the year did not go all that well due to control issues. Six walks contributed to him allowing three runs (all unearned) in 5 IP and the Sox lost 12-3 to the Yankees. But it should be noted that Rodon also only allowed two hits in his time out on the mound. Also, he was facing the Yankees. This is the A's, the consensus worst team in the American League, a notion backed up both by record and run differential. Not only does Oakland come into this series as losers of five in a row overall, but they've also dropped seven consecutive home games as well! This home losing streak doesn't surprise me in the least as the A's are being outscored here by more than one-half run per game despite a 22-19 record. Starting opposite Rodon will be Jarrell Cotton, who shut the White Sox out (for five innings) his last time out. That start was cut short due to a blister on his right thumb, which in turn caused him to miss his last turn in the rotation. So he's working on more than 10 days rest here, which isn't always a good thing. More over, this is the first time in his career that Cotton has won B2B starts. Given that and the fact the A's swept the White Sox last time around, I'd say that Cotton and Oakland are almost "due" to lose here. It certainly doesn't help Cotton's cause that this start comes at home where he has a 7.09 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in six starts. Something tells me that the White Sox hitters will be better prepared for him this go-around and it should also be pointed out that Cotton had only three strikeouts the last time. 8* Run Line Chi White Sox (+1.5) | |||||||
07-03-17 | Marlins +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-14 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
8* Run Line Miami (7:15 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Marlins +1.5. For the second week in a row, St. Louis finds itself starting a new week in the same spot, that being coming off the Sunday Night Game. But whereas they were coming off a win last week (8-4 over Pittsburgh, thus avoiding a sweep), here, they are off a 7-2 loss to Washington that denied them a chance at a sweep. Yes, same as last week, the Redbirds get to stay home here. But I'll be playing against them for the same reason I was ON them last Monday. The reason being, revenge, as in they had it last Monday hosting Cincinnati. Now Miami has it for a prior three-game sweep that took place back in early May. Marlins do no worse than a one-run loss here. Miami had lost four in a row going into yday, but avoided a sweep in Milwaukee w/ a 10-3 win. They pounded out 17 hits, their most in a game in nearly a month, and also got a strong start from Dan Straily. I'll be hoping for a similar complete performance tonight. As far as the bats go, I like their chances against Cards' starter Adam Wainwright, who has begun to regress big time. Wainwright still has a 7.20 ERA his L3 starts even after B2B quality efforts. That should tell you how bad the other one was and, in fact, he's twice allowed NINE runs over the course of his previous five starts. Both times were on the road, but a 1.301 WHIP at Busch Stadium tells me that he's a little bit fortunate to have a 5-1 record in his eight starts here (5-3 TSR). Speaking of fortunate, Wainwright managed to come away w/ a win over the Marlins (back on May 9th) despite allowing four runs in 5 1/3 innings. So Miami has gotten to him before. As for the pitching side of the ledger, the Marlins will turn to Jeff Locke, who is still winless after six turns in the rotation. All were in June, but I believe it's critical to note that Locke rarely got any run support as five of the six starts saw his offense "back him up" w/ two or fewer runs. It's tough to win games that way. Outside of two blowout losses to the Cubs, however, Locke has pitched relatively well. Two of the losses have been by one run, a result which would do us just fine tonight. The Cardinals have done little in the way of hitting the past two games, totaling only four runs on nine hits w/ 25 strikeouts. 8* Run Line Miami (+1.5) | |||||||
07-01-17 | Winnipeg +1.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 43-40 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
8* Winnipeg (9:00 ET): Being that the CFL is a nine-team league, one team is off every week. In Week 1, that was the Blue Bombers, who are eager to build off LY's pretty decent 11-7 SU campaign that saw them qualify for the postseason. Their first opponent will be Saskatchewan, a team I played in Week 1. Catching a generous number, the Rough Riders stayed within the number throughout and eventually lost by just a single point at Montreal. The Riders did outgain the Als in that one, ever so slightly (395-332), but it still wasn't enough as a late FG miss sealed their fate. Here, there's been a change in who's favored, which is always a bit of an interesting proposition. To me, the value resides w/ the rested Blue Bombers. The Riders will not be lacking for motivation in this, their home opener. Tonight should be special in Regina as the doors are officially opened at brand new Mosiac Stadium. But, something we see across all sports (especially NFL) is that often times, home teams tend to struggle in new stadiums. Might the "pomp and circumstance" tonight in Regina serve as a distraction for the home team? Remember that this was the worst team in the CFL last year at 5-13 straight up and they were outscored by 180 points over the course of the year. They were swept by Winnipeg and while they still did manage to go 2-0 ATS, such as SU/ATS split is no longer possible here now that they're the slight favorite Sat night. Note that they were 4.5-pt dogs for LY's annual visit from the Bombers. Winnipeg has reason for optimism entering '17. They were 10-3 SU w/ Matt Nichols at the helm and the starting QB is more than ready to go for tonight's season opener. The Bombers also had the best road record in the league LY at 7-2 straight up. I give them the edge at the all-important "pivot" (QB) position w/ Nichols over the wildly inconsistent Kevin Glenn. Glenn did not throw an INT last week, but let's see if that's still the case after this week when he faces the defense that led the league in turnovers last year w/ 59. In its lone game off the bye last year w/ Nichols at the helm, the Bombers went into Montreal and won 32-18. 8* Winnipeg | |||||||
06-30-17 | Montreal +8.5 v. Edmonton | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 59 h 37 m | Show |
10* Montreal (10:00 ET): Right off the bat, this seems like a heavy "tax" to lay in a battle of 1-0 teams. Granted, Montreal only won its game by a single point at home, 17-16, over a Saskatchewan side that was generally considered the weakest in the entire CFL last year. But it took a last second FG for Edmonton to prevail in B.C. in Week 1, 30-27, after blowing all of a double digit lead. Coming home is obviously big for the Eskimos and they have to feel confident here knowing that they've won and covered seven straight meetings w/ the Als. But back in their customary role of underdog, Montreal is offering a ton of value in Week 2 as I don't expect them to go down easy, if they even go down at all! Take the points. The Alouettes were not favored many times in 2016 (just THREE times total and never by more than a field goal!). So I had no problem fading them as seven-point chalk in the opener last week. While that ticket cashed wire-to-wire, I have to admit that I came away impressed w/ the Als defense, which - for a second straight year - appears set to dominate. Last year, they allowed the fewest number of points per game in the Eastern Division and second fewest in the entire league (behind only Calgary, obviously). Allowing only 16 pts in the opener was certainly a good sign, especially when juxtaposed w/ the Edmonton defense which struggled last year and gave up 27 pts in Wk 1. Close games have been the rule and not the exception so far this year in the CFL. Four of the five games have been decided by one score (the exception being my 10* Game of the Week for Week 1 - Toronto 32-15 over Hamilton). So that's another reason to want to grab the points here. Last year did see the Eskimos win both meetings by double digits, but I anticipate a far closer affair here. QB Darian Durant didn't post blowaway numbers in the Week 1 victory over the Rough Riders, but he did manage to complete 20 of 31 pass attempts and he wasn't sacked nor did he throw an interception. Expect the Als to be a gritty underdog in this one, keep the game low scoring and as was the case w/ their opponent last week, keep the game within the number throughout. 10* Montreal | |||||||
06-30-17 | Cubs v. Reds +1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Reds +1.5. With all new series set to begin Friday in MLB, we can again begin to explore the "revenge option," which has treated us so well, not just throughout the year, but this week especially. It's really simple. You just look for teams that have revenge for a prior series sweep of at least three games. Here, the Reds happen to owe the Cubs quite a bit of payback, but in particular for a three-game sweep that occurred at Wrigley back in mid-May. Since the resurrection of the Cubs' franchise under GM Theo Epstein/Manager Joe Maddon began to hold, they have completely dominated the Reds, going 33-11 against them since the start of the 2015 season, including 20-5 since the start of last year and 5-1 here in '17. But this has hardly been the same dominant Cubs team we've become accustomed to seeing in recent years. Therefore, I feel confident in saying the Reds will do no worse than a one-run loss here. Cincy had some "momentum" (hate that word!) going into yday as they'd beaten the first place Brewers back to back games. It was their first time winning B2B games since a sweep of the Cardinals back on June 5th-8th, believe it or not. Since then, the team has proceeded to go just 5-14 its L19 games, but at least they're at home here where their record is 21-19, resulting in a net gain of 6.9 units at the betting window. Last year, the Reds were the biggest money-loser in all of baseball, so it makes sense that they've been a better return on investment this year (progression to the mean!), even if it's only at home. Coming off B2B quality outings, Scott Feldman gets the start today. His last time starting at Great American Ballpark saw him toss seven scoreless innings of four-hit ball. Yes, the Reds did lose 11-3 yesterday to Milwaukee, costing them a sweep. But I don't think even the most pessimisstic Cubs prognosticator could have predicted the reigning World Series Champs would be entering the final day of June just one game over .500 and only 6.5 games ahead of the Reds. The Cubs are actually fortunate to be above the Mendoza Line entering tonight as they needed a three-run rally to beat the Nationals last night. They still have a losing road record (18-23) for the season, however, not to mention 28th in net units in all of MLB (-16.3). The starting rotation is nowhere near as strong this year as it was last and that's evident by the likes of Mike Montgomery getting regular work. Granted, Montgomery certainly hasn't pitched poorly by any means (1.71 ERA in four starts!). But the team has actually found a way to lose three of those four starts and that's against a pretty weak slate of opponents. The Cubs are among the MLB leaders in # of one-run games played w/ 24. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5) | |||||||
06-27-17 | A's +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
8* Run Line Oakland (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the A's +1.5. As is the case w/ the Reds elsewhere in this package, I don't have a ton of positive things to say about the A's right now. But like Cincinnati, they have revenge for a prior sweep here. They are now just 1-8 head to head vs. the division rival Astros, not too surprising considering the massive gap between the two in the standings. But last week, Oakland suffered the rare four-game sweep at home. They weren't all that competitive either. But not only does the team have revenge here, so does starting pitching Sean Manaea (one of their best) against Michael Fiers as these two opposed each other in the third of the four games last week. It would not surprise me in the least to see the A's pull off a massive upset here, but just to be "safe," I'll take them on the run line. One positive thing we can say about the A's is their weekend performance. After getting swept at home by the Astros, they hit the road and took all three games from the White Sox. Now, there's obviously a big difference between facing one of the American League's best and one of its worst. But the A's were pretty dominant in the Windy City over the weekend, outscoring the White Sox 18-5. That sets them up pretty well here. Yes, they had previously struggled - badly - on the road all year. But, curiously, Houston has not played worse at home than they have on the road! While their 29-9 road record is MLB's best, they're "only" 23-16 here at Minute Maid Park, including 9-10 their L19 games. They've only won two of their previous six home series. A major reason for this is they seem to get on base w/ far less frequency. Their OBP drops .048 at home and as a result they've scored 78 fewer runs here. That all sounds promising for Manaea, who pitched well against Houston his last time out. He allowed only three runs and seven hits in 6 IP last Wednesday w/ eight strikeouts. He's working on ample rest here and has a 2.23 ERA in six career starts vs. the Astros. Manaea's 0.990 WHIP on the road (six starts) this year is also encouraging. Yes, Fiers has been red hot for Houston. But can he keep it up? Entering June, his numbers weren't that great. Eventually, the Athletics HAVE to beat the Astros and looking at the series as a whole, tonight looks like the best opportunity. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5) | |||||||
06-27-17 | Rangers +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
Cleveland had been swept over the weekend by Minnesota and entered Monday w/ a 15-20 record at home, which is actually second worst in the entire American League (ahead of only Minnesota). Obviously, there will be a perception of last night being a "breakthrough," but I'd still be concerned that the team fell behind so big w/ one of its better pitchers on the mound. Certainly, the offense was due to pick it up after going 1 for 23 w/ RISP in the Twins' series. But nights like last night don't happen very often. True to the overall team form, tonight's starter Mike Clevinger has an 0-3 TSR at Progressive Field this season w/ a 5.62 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. This will be his first time starting here in awhile as his L3 turns have all been on the road. He didn't last more than five innings in any of them, which is another problem. The Rangers will give the baseball to Tyson Ross, who isn't exactly Cy Young himself. He's off a bad start against Toronto last week in just his 2nd outing of 2017. But he's had Cleveland's number somewhat through the years, turning in a 1.77 ERA in four appearances against them, three of those being starts. Ross can also probably expect ample run support here given that the Rangers' offense comes into tonight averaging 6.7 rpg its last seven contests. While "only" .500, Texas has outscored its opponents by 23 runs this year. Cleveland may again be w/o manager Terry Francona (sick) here and that should have some effect, right? 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5) | |||||||
06-26-17 | Rangers +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 9-15 | Loss | -125 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
8* Run Line Texas (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rangers +1.5. This would also be Cole Hamels' long-awaited return from a two-month stint on the DL (strained right oblique). He looked good in two rehab assignments, turning in a 1.04 ERA. Considering the Rangers have been able to maintain a .500 record w/o their top pitcher, one could make the case here that they're in pretty good shape moving forward. Hamels and Yu Darvish, both of whom will pitch in this series, are a formidable 1-2 combo at the front end of the rotation. The team, now 11-5 overall since June 9th, has actually outscored its opponents (+29 run differential) by a wider margin this year than they did in LY's 95-win campaign (only +8). A key to that has been their record in one-run games as LY they were a record-setting 36-11 while 2017 has seen them go just 5-12. But that's where the added insurance of the RL comes into play as I'll say Texas does no worse here than one-run defeat in Hamels' return. Cleveland's curious struggles at home continued over the weekend as they were swept by the Minnesota Twins and shut out twice (outscored 13-2 overall!). That came on the heels of a 7-1 road trip, so there's no denying as to just how disappointing the weekend result was. For the year, the reigning AL Champs are 24-15 on the road, but only 15-20 here at Progressive Field. At -19.5 units YTD, no team has lost more money at the betting window than the Indians and it's really not even close. Another troubling sign here is the Tribe's 0-3 record this year after being shut out the previous game. Sunday saw them finish w/ nine hits, but no runs as they were 1 for 23 w/ RISP for the series. Starting tonight will be Carlos Carrasco, who certainly gives the team a "fighting chance," but note his 1.246 WHIP his L3 starts is a bit of a warning sign that the 1.53 ERA is a little misleading. He is 2-3 lifetime vs. Texas w/ a 5.95 ERA. The Rangers are coming off a one-run win Sunday, 7-6 over the Yankees, that saw them have to hold on after taking a 7-0 lead. The bullpen may continue to be a bit of a concern, but I certainly don't think Hamels is and at this price, he's too good to pass up. His five starts in April saw him turn in "the usual" numbers (3.03 ERA, 1.133 WHIP) and while strikeouts were down, he never allowed more than 3 ER in any start. He did lose to Cleveland, 9-6, in his first start of the year. But note that he was actually in line for the win before the bullpen allowed a Francisco Lindor grand-slam in the top half of the ninth. That capped a three-game sweep for the Tribe in Arlington, but now the revenge angle kicks in and given how the home team has struggled all year at Progressive Field, I'll gladly take the +1.5 here. 8* Run Line Texas (+1.5) | |||||||
06-25-17 | Hamilton v. Toronto +3.5 | Top | 15-32 | Win | 100 | 8 h 11 m | Show |
10* Toronto (4:00 ET): These two provincial (Ontario) rivals play the final game of the Week 1 CFL slate. Thus far, every game this season has been close w/ last night's 30-27 win by Edmonton at BC being the largest margin of victory by any team this year. That right there leads to automatic consideration of the underdog for this one, especially w/ the dog being at home. The Argos are off a very disappointing 2016 where they went both 5-13 straight up and against the spread. But they did manage to beat the rival Ti-Cats here at BMO Field, 33-21 as a 6.5-point dog. That win and cover happened to snap an 8-game ATS losing streak in the rivalry and I believe there's more to come and the rivalry starts to shift the Argos' way. Take the way. As you might expect, a last place finish brought a lot of changes for Toronto this year. There's a new GM, Jim Popp, who for two decades was the architect over in Montreal. He brought over a familiar name to be head coach, that being Marc Trestman, who won a Grey Cup for the Als, not to mention coached in the NFL w/ the Chicago Bears. Trestman should work well w/ veteran QB Ricky Ray, who enters 2017 w/ the fourth most passing yards in the history of the CFL. Furthermore, the Argos were able to reach out to Montreal for another key addition, this one coming on the defensive side of the ball. Shockingly, the 2016 Most Outstanding Defensive Player in the East Division, Bear Woods, was released by the Als. Toronto wasted little time in picking him up and that should lead to immediate dividends on that side of the ball. Hamilton has a veteran pivot (QB) of its own, Henry Burris, but it's the Ti-Cats' defense that I'm worried about entering the season. Two key members of what was supposed to be an outstanding secondary - Emanuel Davis and Abdul Kanneh - are both starting the year on the injured list. Look for the experience Ray to exploit those absences. Not only that, but three former Ti-Cats defenders now line up for the Argos. 10* Toronto | |||||||
06-24-17 | Edmonton v. BC -3.5 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
8* British Columbia (10:00 ET): I've seen the Leos get some "Grey Cup love" this offseason. Were those prognostications to be anywhere near accurate, one would certainly have to think laying this short number. Last season was a big bounce back campaign in B.C. as HC Wally Bueno's return to the sidelines led to a big improvement in the team's win total from 7 (in 2015) to 12. The Lions' season officially ended in the Western Final w/ a loss to their rival, Calgary, by a lopsided score of 42-15. Of course, you don't need to ask B.C.'s Week 1 opponent, Edmonton, about how tough the Stampeders are. They were swept by the Stamps last season, part of a disappointing 10-8 SU regular season, after taking the Grey Cup home in 2015. These Western Division rivals split LY's two meetings, the home team winning both times. They also have a history of close matchups w/ the last five meetings, again all won by the home team, decided by seven points or less (one in OT). But I've got reason to believe the Leos roll here in the season opener. The hype coming out of Western Canada certainly seems justified as QB Jonathon Jennings appears ready to break out. This will be his second year starting at the pivot position and he has possibly the best receiving duo in the league at his disposal, Emmanuel Arcenaux and Bryan Burnham, plus the team added Chris Williams via free agency. The Lions should have no problem scoring in 2017 and that should leave an Eskimos defense that regressed badly LY w/ a uneasy feeling. On their own defensive side of the ball, B.C. returns largely all of LY's top talent including a very talented secondary group. Edmonton lost Derel Walker to the NFL and one of it's major FA signings this past offseason (LB Corey Greenwood) was lost to injury in training camp. This defense is simply nowhere near as stout as the group that brought home the Grey Cup in 2015. Greenwood was brought in to replace the already departed Deon Lacey. QB Mike Reilly admitted that the loss of his top receiver, Walker, will be tough. I expect the Esks to struggle in this one. 8* British Columbia | |||||||
06-23-17 | Phillies +1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
8* Run Line Philadelphia (9:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. Here we go again. The Phils treated me to win yday, beating St. Louis 5-1. That happened to be just their second win in the last 15 games overall and they do (still) own the worst record in all of baseball. But, recently at least, they've been a lot more competitive than their record indicates. Before finally breaking through yday afternoon, they'd lost three straight extra inning games. Six of their last nine losses have come by the dreaded one-run margin. That doesn't even include a misleading 7-1 loss Tuesday (in 11 innings). So I feel comfortable here in saying that they'll do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. Arizona has to feeling pretty good about itself right now. They return home after taking two of three from Colorado, scoring 26 runs the last two days. Overall, they've now won 9 of 10 and 12 of the last 14. Their current record (46-27) is the best in franchise history at this juncture of the season. They've won 11 of 12 here at Chase Field where they are 26-9 for the year, averaging 6.5 runs per game. However, coming off the strong showing in Colorado and a strong road trip overall, I feel they're ripe to be upset here. Starter Pat Corbin is arguably the weak link in the rotation as his ERA is 5.31 and his WHIP is 1.56. With matchups against Robbie Ray and Zack Greinke the next two days, this is - on paper - Philly's most "winnable" game of the series. The reason this line came out so late is that there's been a pitching change for the Phillies. Rookie Mark Leiter, Jr will be making his first big league start in tonight's series opener. He's worked out of the bullpen previously for the Phils and made three starts at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Starting pitching has not been the issue for the Phillies this year as the rotation has delivered five consecutive quality starts. If the offense were able to get going - and against Corbin, I believe they will - they'll compete here and have a chance at pulling the big upset. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5) | |||||||
06-23-17 | Twins +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
8* Run Line Minnesota (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm backing the Twins +1.5. Last week at this time, I wrote that it was "about time" for Cleveland to assert itself in the AL Central. The consensus top team in the division had gotten off to a pretty mediocre start to 2017 and as a result, trailed the surprising Twins for first place. But after a four-game sweep in Minnesota, the Tribe comes into this weekend w/ a 2.5-game edge in the standings. One thing that these two division foes have in common is that they each have played much better on the road than at home. In fact, both have sub-.500 home records. The revenge angle is obviously in play here and certainly the Twins are eager to reverse a 2-8 record vs. the Indians this season. I say they'll do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. Minnesota had to sit out a record-setting five-hour rain delay yday and all they got for their trouble was a 9-0 loss to the White Sox. But note they did take the first two games of that particular series, which was at home. While they've now lost 25 times this season at Target Field, they've tasted defeat only NINE times on the road! Only Houston can claim a better win percentage on the road throughout baseball. Clearly, the delay had an effect on them, starter Nik Turley in particular, last night as they allowed seven runs in the first three innings. With a taxed bullpen, the pressure is on tonight's starter Adaleberto Mejia, who is 0-3 his L3 starts. But outside of one poor showing at home vs. Seattle, Mejia has been fine this year. Last weekend, he allowed just two runs (both coming on solo HR's) to Cleveland in 4 2/3 IP. Despite having just 3-6 team start record overall, Mejia's numbers are remarkably similar to those of Indians' starter Trevor Bauer, who has managed a 7-7 TSR. The respective ERA's are virtually identical while Bauer only has a small edge in WHIP. Something to note here is that last night marked the 1st time all season that Minnesota was shut out. They average a healthy 4.8 rpg on the road. This will be their fourth time facing Bauer already this year and they've lost each of the first three matchups. However, that's odd considering Bauer was just 1-5 in 11 career starts against them coming into the year. His ERA remains 4.84 all-time against them. As alluded to above, Cleveland has a losing record here at Progressive Field (15-17) including a 2-6 mark as in the -175 to -250 range on the money line. 8* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5) | |||||||
06-22-17 | Saskatchewan +7 v. Montreal | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 59 m | Show |
8* Saskatchewan (7:30 ET): Our 2017 CFL opener features two teams coming off losing campaigns in 2016. In fact, the Rough Riders finished a league-worst 5-13 straight up. Montreal wasn't much better (7-11 SU) and didn't make the playoffs either, losing a tiebreaker w/ Hamilton for the final spot. The Als did sweep the season series last year against the Riders, winning 41-3 here at home and 19-14 (as 6.5-pt dogs) on the road. But for a team that was outscored over the course of the season, this price range seems a bit "rich." Consider this; only TWICE last season were the Alouettes favored to win a game! Take the points in this Week 1 matchup. Now, Saskatchewan is already dealing w/ some early season attrition as two receivers - Chad Owens and Rob Bagg - won't be suiting up here in Week 1. But that's alright. Naaman Roosevelt (1,000+ yards) and Ricky Collins Jr (48 catches last year) are still around. I've also seen some consternation over the fact the Riders only wrapped up their preseason slate five days ago in B.C. That, I feel, has only served to drive this line up much higher than it should be. The other big storyline here is that pivot (QB) Darian Durant is now suiting up for the Als opposed to the Rough Riders. Again, just another reason the line is too high. On defence, the Riders will be led by Willie Jefferson, who is a strong contender to lead the CFL in sacks this season. Expect Jefferson to make life uncomfortable for former teammate and now opponent, Durant. Last season was the first since '12 that the Als swept the season series, so history is on the Rough Riders side here as it's been a LONG time since they dropped three in row to this particular opponent. The Riders also made a GREAT signing in the offseason, bringing in top offensive lineman Derek Dennis over from Calgary. Last season, Dennis was the top OL in the entire league. I see Montreal's D taking a step back this year. 8* Saskatchewan | |||||||
06-22-17 | Astros v. A's +1.5 | Top | 12-9 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
8* Run Line Oakland (3:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the A's +1.5. It probably shouldn't be considered a shock that Houston has come into Oakland this week and dominated the home team, taking the first three games of the series by a cummulative score of 17-6. After all, the Astros have the best record in all of baseball while the A's are the American League's worst team. Right now, 17.5 games separate the two clubs in the West. But, in this day and age, it has become increasingly harder to sweep a four-game series as the road team. That's my initial read on this matchup and for once, it also looks like Oakland may have the edge in starting pitching as well. Just to be "safe," I'll be taking the added insurance that the RL provides here. Remember that in the series prior to this one, the A's actually swept the Yankees! That included a start from today's starter Jesse Hahn, who went five innings, allowing only two runs on three hits on Saturday. Hahn now has a 2.81 ERA his L3 starts overall. Though he hasn't always pitched deep into games, there's been only one time all year that he's conceded more than 3 ER in a start. He had the unfortunate task of facing Dallas Keuchel the last time he saw the Astros, but thankfully today he's only being opposed by David Paulino, who has a 5.03 ERA in just four starts (none of them longer than six innings) this season. While Houston continues to win at an extraordinary rate on the road (26-8!), Oakland actually has a winning record at home (22-16) and that record was obviously a lot better before this series got underway. Note that coming into this series, it had been a long time since Houston strung togther consecutive victories. They'd actually gone nearly two full weeks w/o doing it. Now, they have won NINE straight times here in Oakland, which is their longest win streak at any stadium (besides their own) since they were a still a member of the National League and won 11 straight times at Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark from 2007-09. All streaks must come to an end, however. Last night's victory saw a lot of "cluster luck" as basically one big inning drove the victory. I'm willing to bank that the A's do no worse than a one-run loss today. 8* Run Line Oakland (+1.5) | |||||||
06-22-17 | Cardinals v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
8* Run Line Philadelphia (1:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. Here we go again, one last time. The Phils came into this series w/ revenge for a three-game sweep they suffered earlier this month in St. Louis. That triggers one of my favorite angles, which is to simply take the team playing w/ revenge for the prior sweep. As a bit of "added insurance," I've played Philly on the RL (+1.5) both games here. The fact I've only managed to walk away w/ a split and that the Phils didn't win either game is a miscarraige of justice in my book. Tuesday saw the teams tied (1-1) going into extra innings, which is when the "dam broke" and the Cardinals wound up scoring seven times in the top of the 11th! Last night, while I did cash my ticket, was even more painful for the few remaining Phillies' fans. They blew a 5-0 lead and again lost in extra innings, this time by a score of 7-6. Thankfully, them allowing two runs in the top of the 10th didn't burn me as they at least managed to score one in the bottom half of that inning. The Phillies were one out away from snapping this losing streak of theirs when they surrendered the game-tying run in the top of the ninth. It marked the first time in over 50 tries that the Cards were able to erase a deficit of five or more runs and come back to win. The poor Phillies. They've now lost three straight extra inning games and six of their last nine losses have come by the dreaded one-run margin. They outhit the Cardinals yday, 16-9. Yes, they now have the worst record in baseball after dropping 13 of 14 overall and 39 of their last 50 (yikes!). But St. Louis still has a losing road record and factoring out the Phillies, their record is just 3-12 in June. Both teams will be sending out their strongest pitchers Thursday afternoon. For the Redbirds, Carlos Martinez has been sharp of late, posting an 0.844 WHIP his L3 turns. That includes a CG effort against these Phillies where he struck out 11 batters and allowed only four hits. But like his team, Martinez tends to struggle far more on the road where his ERA is 4.50 and his WHIP is 1.361. For the Phils, Aaron Nola's numbers may not "knock your socks off," but one thing that I've noticed is he rarely turns in B2B subpar efforts. Last time out, against a fierce Arizona offense, he allowed five runs. I expect him to pitch MUCH better today. 8* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5) | |||||||
06-21-17 | Cardinals v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
8* Run Line Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. Last night's final score, which was 8-1 in favor of the Cardinals, is as misleading as it gets. The game was tied 1-1 heading into the 11th inning, which is when the Philly bullpen faltered and gave the game away. For someone who had the Phils +1.5, extra innings was certainly a "worst case scenario" for yours truly. The end result is that the home team still has revenge for not just last night, but also a prior three-game sweep that happened down in St. Louis earlier in the month. Bad teams have gotten me into a bit of trouble w/ this time-tested angle recently, but I still believe strongly in it and thus I'm comfortable in saying the Phillies will do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. | |||||||
06-20-17 | Cardinals v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
10* Run Line Philadelphia (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Phillies +1.5. Earlier this month, the Cardinals swept a three-game set from the Phillies (at home), setting up this revenge angle. Going into that last series, St. Louis had actually dropped seven in a row, all on the road. Though they would go on to sweep the Phils, things really haven't turned around in the Gateway City as the club has now lost five of six coming into tonight. Now, Philly has never recovered from being swept in St. Louis as they have lost 11 of 12 (lone win was 1-0 over Chris Sale!). Performances from both the Reds and Giants this past weekend showed that blindly taking the revenge angle doesn't always work, but I still believe in it and feel the Phils will do no worse than a one-run loss tonight. As a 13-19 record suggests, the Cardinals aren't a good team on the road. They allow 5.3 runs per game and are also just 1-4 in the -125 to -175 range on the money line. Yes, the Phillies now own the worst record in all of MLB and have been swept a total of eight times already this season. But, let's note that two of the three losses in St. Louis earlier this month came by one run margins. That was also the case in the series against Boston and Arizona. In sum, seven of the team's last 10 games have been decided by one run, six of those being losses. No team can claim to have played more one run games this year than the Phillies (27), though the Cardinals (22) aren't too far behind themselves. Neither pitcher that will be toeing the rubber this evening comes in displaying fine form. At one point, the Cards' Mike Leake was 5-2 w/ a 1.91 ERA this season. But he's since regressed badly, dropping four consecutive starts, his last one being the ugliest as he allowed six runs over six innings. Interestingly enough, Leake's career 5.40 ERA vs. Philadelphia is his worst against any opponent he's made at least four starts against. Now, right now, it may similarly be difficult to praise Phillies' starter Jeremy Hellickson. He too allowed six runs in his last outing, giving him an 0-4 record (7.57 ERA) his L5 turns. That's probably a "market correction" after Hellickson began the year w/ a very surprising 8-1 TSR (six of those wins coming by one run!). Maybe he loses this one by a one run margin, or maybe the Phils pull the upset. 10* Run Line Philadelphia (+1.5) | |||||||
06-20-17 | Indians v. Orioles +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
8* Run Line Baltimore (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Orioles +1.5. Last night's series opener saw the O's get whitewashed (lost 12-0!) by Cleveland, dropping them to an ugly 12-25 their 37 games overall including 3-9 their last 12. It was an all-around ugly performance Monday night as the Tribe's Corey Kluber silenced the Baltimore bats, allowing just three hits in a complete game shutout. It was somewhat reminiscint of another ugly loss for Baltimore, an 11-2 setback against St. Louis last Friday. Of course, I would jump on the Baltimore bandwagon the next day and they would reward me w/ a 15-7 beatdown of the Cards. Same strategy here and just for a little "added insurance," I'll grab the +1.5 to boot. Last season saw Chris Tillman post one of the best ROI's (return on investments) in all of baseball as he was top four in net units earned. I felt he was fortunate to do so as his ERA and WHIP were not indicative of dominating performances. Sure enough, the O's starter has regressed badly in 2017, particularly of late. The team has lost each of the last five times he's started w/ him posting a 12.09 ERA and 2.528 WHIP his last three. As awful as that all sounds, it's largely all tied to one disastrous showing at Yankee Stadium ten days ago. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to now see Tillman turn things around somewhat, at least here at Camden Yards where the Orioles are still 23-12 this season. Cleveland is just 2-5 this year when off a shut out victory, so again, there's some real value in fading them in this spot. Especially because there's obviously no Kluber here. Instead, it will be Josh Tomlin on the mound and like Tillman, he's been struggling. His L3 starts have resulted in a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. He got away w/ allowing two home runs his last time out due to his own offense scoring 12 times for him. But as good as the Indians' offense has looked recently, that amount of support simply cannot be counted upon on a nightly basis, so don't be surprised if Cleveland were to have an "off night" at the plate here. Over the course of the season, this hasn't been a top 10 offense, whether you're talking runs scored (14th), team batting average (12th) or OBP (11th). 8* Run Line Baltimore (+1.5) | |||||||
06-19-17 | Padres v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
10* Run Line Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Cubs MINUS 1.5 runs. The reigning World Series Champs enter the day at .500, a record that obviously is considered a massive disappointment at this juncture of the season. But, without question, the nadir of the team's 2017 (so far) was getting swept out in San Diego back at the end of May. The team immediately followed that w/ a five-game win streak (all here at home), but has again regressed by playing below .500 ball (4-7) its last 11 games. Those who follow me regularly know I'm keen on the revenge angle (for a prior series sweep). Over the weekend, we were afforded the opportunity to take teams playing w/ revenge PLUS the 1.5 on the RL. Here, it is the opposite as the money line is (predictably) high on the Cubs. But I have no problem calling for a blowout here as San Diego is the worst team in all of baseball (-113 run differential). A .500 finish was a pipedream for these Padres coming into 2017 as they were widely expected to be the worst team in all of baseball this year and that's what they are. Their aforementioned run differential is 23 runs worse than the second worst team (Philadelphia). On the road is where things get really ugly. They are 11-24 away from Petco Park and being outscored - on average - by 1.8 runs per game. Only Oakland has been outscored by more on the road this season. The team arrives in the Windy City actually having won four of six w/ both losses coming by one run, so they're probably "due" to get blown out here anyway. Starter Clayton Richard has a 4.29 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and when he gets beat, like a 15-3 loss at Arizona in his last road start, it's often very badly. Meanwhile, Cubs starter Jon Lester is off a very big win his last time out, 14-3 over the Mets. He struck out 10 while allowing just one run on five hits over 7 IP. Here at home, he has a 2.65 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The team won two of three over the weekend in Pittsburgh, both wins coming by margins of four runs or greater. The offense has picked up w/ Anthony Rizzo hitting leadoff as he alone is 9 for 22 w/ three home runs since the change was made. Overall, Rizzo comes into tonight on a 12-game hit streak (.409 BA). The Cubs should have no problem winning this game by a margin of two runs or greater and in all likelihood will go on to dominate this series as a whole. 10* Run Line Chi Cubs (-1.5) | |||||||
06-18-17 | Giants +1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
8* Run Line San Francisco (3:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. Similar to the Reds, the Giants have put my strategy of (blindly) taking teams w/ revenge for a prior sweep (of three games or more) to the test this weekend. Note that they did cash via the RL on Thursday. But now it's Sunday and they still haven't beaten the Rockies this weekend. In fact, they've now lost to them EIGHT consecutive times. This head to head record is largely responsible for the massive 18.5 game gap that now exists between the two clubs in the NL West standings. But earlier in the weekend (Thursday) we saw the Tigers gain revenge for a previous sweep (against the Rays) and last night the Angels did the same to the Royals. I believe the Giants will do no worse than a one-run loss today. The first two games of this series were certainly competitive w/ a late rally pulling San Fran even going into the bottom of the ninth Thursday (lost on a walkoff). Then, they jumped out to an early 4-1 lead in Friday's game. But since then, it's been "all Colorado" w/ them outcoring SF 14-5. Giants' skipper Bruce Bochy pretty much summed it all up when he said, "We're not doing enough to win the ballgames. We score 17 runs in the first two games and we can't get a win, and we get a pretty good pitching job and we get one run today. That's kind of how it's gone for us." Bochy's team certainly had its chances yday as they had 10 hits, one in every inning against Rockies starter Kyle Freeland, but they just couldn't get the runners home. Denver native Ty Blach will get the baseball today for the G-Men. Yes, he did get charged w/ allowing seven runs his last time out, but that was a tad bit misleading as a bloop hit w/ the bases loaded did him in. He started June w/ a CG effort at Philadelphia and had allowed 3 ER or less in his final four starts of May. I expect Blach to bounce back today. He has only faced the Rockies in relief (four times) in his young career, but has turned in six scoreless innings. Tyler Chatwood will oppose him and this game being at Coors Field is, ironically, not good for the home pitcher. That's because Chatwood's numbers, are much worse at home than on the road. Yes, that's a bit predictable, but for Chatwood the dichotomy is striking. In six home starts, he has a 7.03 ERA and 1.751 WHIP. His road ERA is 2.41. If you're looking at only recent numbers, note that each of Chatwood's last three starts were on the road. His last start at Coors saw him allow six runs in 4 1/3 innings and that was to Seattle team that uncharacteristically had to send the pitcher up to bat. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5) | |||||||
06-18-17 | Dodgers v. Reds +1.5 | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
8* Run Line Cincinnati (1:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm playing the Reds +1.5. My typically "foolproof" strategy of taking teams playing with revenge for a previous sweep (of three games or more) has admittedly been put to the test this weekend, by not only Cincinnati, but San Francisco as well. Today represents the Reds final shot at beating the Dodgers not just this weekend, but for all of 2017. They are 0-5 against them so far this season as they were also swept last weekend at Chavez Ravine. In retrospect, there was a danger in backing the Reds "blindly" as they are clearly the inferior club, which shows not just in the YTD record, but also the fact they are just 3-16 vs. LA the last three seasons, one of the worst head to head marks in the league during that time. But still, at least cashing on the RL is something they should be able to do, especially here at home. I believe in the revenge angle and will try one final time here w/ the Reds. Four of the five losses to the Dodgers this year have been by at least two runs. Yesterday was the most lopsided of the bunch as the Reds fell 10-2 w/ LA homering four times on a day meant to honor Pete Rose. It was the Reds' eighth loss in a row overall, five of those to the Dodgers. These are the ugly truths we are up against here. But they are getting a big break Sunday w/ Kenta Maeda being reinserted into the starting rotation in what was originally scheduled for a Clayton Kershaw start. (I probably wouldn't have taken Cincy here were Kershaw on the mound). Maeda made his first career relief appearance back on June 9th against the Reds and actually got the save. But as a starter, his ERA is 5.10 this year and his WHIP is 1.28. The numbers get worse on the road (6.26, 1.478) and Maeda's been remarkably inefficient all year, only twice making it past the fifth inning while at the same time averaging around 92 pitchers per start. Bronson Arroyo will be getting the baseball for Cincy's last stand against the Dodgers. The veteran certainly can't be any worse here than he was his last time out, when he allowed nine runs (in 4 2/3 IP) to San Diego. But the team is 5-2 this year when he starts at Great American Ballpark, contributing to their overall winning record here. Something else to note is the Reds are a strong 7-2 after allowing 10+ runs the previous game. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5) | |||||||
06-17-17 | Dodgers v. Reds +1.5 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
10* Run Line Cincinnati (4:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I taking the Reds +1.5. I understand that this is probably considered another "unpopular" side today (theme of this 3-Game report?), but I remain firm in my belief in the revenge angle here. Cincinnati got the pitching it needed last night, but the offense wasn't there to support it in a 3-1 loss. It was their seventh loss in a row, four of those coming to the Dodgers. But I don't think that they'll lose them all to LA this weekend, not at home. The Reds actually have a winning record (19-16) here at Great American Ballpark thanks in large part to averaging 5.5 runs per game here. If they can get to that average, starter Asher Wojciechowski should handle the rest and I don't see the team doing any worse than a one-run loss here. This will be Wojciechowski's seventh start of the year. In the interest of full disclosure, he has allowed four or more runs in five of the previous six. Last weekend at Dodger Stadium, he allowed four runs and six hits in five innings (no walks). But the end result only ended up being a one-run loss, a result that we will obviously accept here. That last start also came opposite Alex Wood, who shut down the Reds again last night. Here, he'll be facing Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has allowed 4 runs in B2B starts, including one vs. Cincy. The Reds actually tagged Ryu for three home runs Sunday, so they were very fortunate to come out ahead in that one. Ryu has actually not won on the road this season, going 0-4 in five starts (0-5 TSR). His ERA (4.62) and WHIP (1.539 WHIP) are very poor outside of Chavez Ravine. In four career starts vs. the Reds, Ryu's ERA is 4.44. It's not as if the Dodgers' offense did much last night either. They finished w/ just three runs on seven hits. I expect the Reds' bats to wake back up as they have homered in 22 of the past 25 games. Additionally, they the lead the league in stolen bases. 10* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5) | |||||||
06-17-17 | Giants +1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -125 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
10* Run Line San Francisco (3:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. After cashing them on the RL Thursday, the Giants let me down on the money line last night. Ironically, it was a late rally that enabled me to cash + the 1.5 Thursday, but last night a 4-1 lead quickly evaporated into a 10-8 defeat. That drops the Giants to 1-8 head to head w/ the Rockies this season, including SEVEN straight losses! Can this Colorado domination continue? Despite what the NL standings say, I'm going to continue to count on "no" being the answer to that question. Revenge for a prior sweep (of three games or more) remains one of my favorite handicapping angles in MLB and I'm not about to "deviate from the script." You obviously won't be hearing Matt Cain's name being mentioned for Cy Young consideration in 2017. The Giants starter comes into today having allowed 5 ER in B2B outings. But Colorado's Kyle Freeland hardly is in fine form either after allowing five runs himself his last time out. Certainly, offense has not been a problem for the visitors in this series. They've scored 17 runs in the first two games. The problem is that they've allowed 20. So Cain's job here is to work on bringing that second number down. He is certainly familiar w/ the Rockies and pitching here at Coors Field as this will be his 39th career start against them (most of any pitcher) and 19th in Denver. He is 17-10 w/ a 3.52 ERA all-time against them. Interestingly, he has not faced the Rockies yet in 2017, so don't blame him for the poor head to head record. Colorado, despite having the best overall record in the National League, has actually been better on the road than at home this season. I'm still skeptical of their long-term prospects as they're a fortunate 10-2 in one-run games. The starting rotation remains young and unproven. Freeland does have a win over the Giants earlier in the year, but he's a low strikeout pitcher w/ a 47-30 KW rate for the year. He's also allowed at least one home run in six consecutive outings. As we've seen in each of the first two games of this series, the Rockies' bullpen is hardly impressive either (5.45 ERA, 1.46 WHIP). I realize it may not be a popular opinion right now, but I do believe the Giants can beat the Rockies. They'll do no worse than a one-run loss here. 10* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5) | |||||||
06-16-17 | Dodgers v. Reds +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
8* Run Line Cincinnati (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Reds +1.5. The value of the run line was on display last night when I took the Giants +1.5 against the Rockies (they lost by 1). Check out the analysis on today's game (elsewhere in this report) for more on that. Like the Giants yday, the Reds would certainly appear to be "up against it" in this matchup as the Dodgers come to town. But unlike SF yday, the Reds have two advantages, those being: a) they had Thursday off (Dodgers were in Cleveland) and b) they are at home. Furthermore, as was the case with the play on the Giants yday, revenge is in the air tonight. Just last weekend, Cincy was swept in ugly fashion out at Chavez Ravine. This revenge angle is one of my favorites as beating the same opponent, game after game, is tough to do. Just as a little "added insurance" though, I'm grabbing the +1.5. Tonight's opener was set to be a pitching rematch between Asher Wojciechowski and Alex Wood. But Wojciechowski's spot in the rotation was flipped w/ Tim Adleman, who gets the start tonight instead. (Wojciechowski is scheduled for tomorrow). That's fine by me as Adleman's numbers are slightly better anyway. He actually pitched admirably against the Dodgers on Sunday, allowing only three runs (two earned) in 5 IP, and was in line for the win. But, sadly, the bullpen failed him by giving up six runs in the bottom of the eighth (Reds lost 9-7). Nevertheless, that performance by Adleman came on the heels of three consecutive quality outings. One of them saw him throw eight innings of one-hit ball. His last home start saw him beat Adam Wainwright and St. Louis by allowing just one run on three hits in 7 IP. Something else to consider here is that the Reds have a winning record here at home (19-15). Coming off a terrible 0-6 road trip which saw them get swept not only by the Dodgers, but the Padres as well, they'll be happy to be back in Great American Ballpark, even if it's only for this weekend. They average a very impressive 5.6 rpg here for the year. Meanwhile, the Dodgers are just a .500 team on the road this year (16-16). They saw their six-game win streak snapped yday afternoon in Cleveland as they allowed 12 runs. Tonight's starter Alex Wood has been very good so far (yet to lose a decision!), but the Reds did get to him for three runs last Saturday (in only five innings), something that no other team had been able to do since May 2nd. While the odds may not suggest the Reds having much of a shot here, I think they do as they're 6-2 this season when playing w/ a day off. 8* Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5) | |||||||
06-15-17 | Giants +1.5 v. Rockies | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
8* Run Line San Francisco (8:40 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. San Francisco has had its troubles against Colorado this season, going just 1-6 head to head, including them suffering a three-game sweep in their last visit to Coors Field, back in April. That would help to explain the massive and somewhat shocking discrepancy between these two clubs in the NL West standings as the Rockies, tied for 1st in the division, currently lead SF by 15.5 games. Colorado is returning home here after a seven-game road trip, but is that a good thing? Similar to the Twins over in the American League, the Rockies have managed to be a massive surprise IN SPITE of their home record, which is just 17-13. The revenge angle (for the prior sweep) superseeds all and is the main reason I'm backing the Giants in this one. However, given the odds, I'm willing to step back and take the added insurance that the +1.5 (runs) provides. Certainly, this is looking like a bit of a lost season by the Bay. The Giants just dropped a pair of games (at home) to the Royals, scoring all of three runs in the process. They've now dropped six of eight overall and have a -73 run differential (4th worst in MLB) for the year. But, the last four times they've been off B2B losses, they've managed to win the next time out. Getting back to the run line, the Giants have played among the most (20) one-run games in all of baseball. Colorado's 9-2 record in such affairs is a big reason why they're where they're at and we're now protected from that. The Rockies had actually dropped three in a row prior to last night's 5-1 win in Pittsburgh. Their rotation is latent w/ rookies and another will start here, that being Jeff Hoffman, who has been red hot (1.33 ERA, 0.541 WHIP L3 starts) filling in for the injured Tyler Anderson. But this will be just the second time pitching at Coors Field for Hoffman and the first time did not go all that well as he allowed three runs and six hits in 5 1/3. Perhaps the hitter-friendly nature of this ballpark will help San Francisco's struggling snap out of its year-long funk. Yesterday did see them undone by stranding 11 runners and going 2 for 10 w/ RISP. It's certainly been a tough year for starter Matt Moore as well, but since the second start of May he's been a lot better. I look for the Giants to do no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5) | |||||||
06-12-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 120-129 | Push | 0 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): So it turns out that the Warriors will not finish the postseason a perfect 16-0 SU as they lost to the Cavs in Game 4, 137-116, thereby preventing them from pulling off the sweep. Despite still holding a commanding 3-1 series lead and returning home for Game 5 tonight, there's a curious amount of pressure on the Dubs, of course due to the fact that LY saw them blow a 3-1 series lead (first time in NBA Finals history) to these Cavs. Of the four games so far, only one hasn't been decided by double digits, but I'll call for a closer affair tonight as Cleveland appeared to have rediscovered its lost shooting touch Friday night. Take the points. Surprisingly, the Warriors are only 1-5 ATS this season following a double digit loss. They are 5-1 straight up in those same games, thus high pointspreads like the one we have here have generally come into play. Their defense was absolutely carved up in Game 4 as they allowed the Cavs not only to make a Finals record 24 three-pointers, but do so at an astounding 53.3% clip. For all the complaining about the officiating GSW did after the game, they actually attempted more free throws in the game than did the Cavs. A huge start to Game 4 was key for Cleveland and it should be noted the defending World Champs played the Warriors tough for much of Games 1 and 2 here in Oakland. Game 3 saw a blown six-point lead in the final three minutes at home and the Cavs were -12 in the two minutes LeBron James was off the court. If either of those two things had been rectified, the discussion of this series would be much different now. James averages 32.5 points per game in elimination contests, so expect another big game from him here. He's already averaging a triple double in these Finals. While the Cavs' record as an underdog is far from great this season, note that the majority of the games have come w/ James out of the lineup. I feel the pressure is on the Warriors here as another loss would bring up the ghosts of last season. I'm not saying the Cavs will win outright and extend the series tonight, but I certainly expect a close game. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +4 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 14 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (9:05 ET): The defending World Champs appear to be in major trouble, down 0-2 to the Warriors. But let us not forget that the same scenario took place in LY's Finals, only for the Cavs to come back and take four of the next five games in (somewhat) improbable fashion. In fact, the results of the first two games last year, when the Warriors did NOT have Kevin Durant, were even more lopsided (combined 48 pt margin of victory) than what we've seen so far in this series (41 pts). So, Cleveland should not give up all hope - yet. Things now shift to Quicken Loans Arena, where they've been far stronger all year long, and notable is the fact that prior to the start of the series, they were to be favored here at home. After what transpired in the first two games, the oddsmakers have shifted from Cavs -2 to them now being a small home dog. Value! Take the points. Cleveland as a home dog is rare, provided LeBron James is in the lineup. He obviously will be for Game 3. James quietly turned in a triple double in Game 2 w/ 29 pts, 11 rebounds and 14 assists. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving also contributed a combined 46 points. But what about the rest of the roster? How about just 38 total pts on 13 of 36 shooting. Those players have to give the team SOMETHING as it was more of the same in Game 1 as well. What we typically see from a "supporting cast" is better play at home, thankfully. Note the Cavs are 36-11 SU at home this year (including playoffs), winning by an average margin of 8.2 points per game. Virtually every player on the roster sees their shooting improve here, which is evident by a 48.6 overall FG% including 39.5% from three-point range. I mentioned earlier that Cleveland is rarely a home dog w/ James in the lineup. One such time came on Christmas Day (+3.5) against these Warriors as they came from behind to win outright, 109-108. Clearly, the Cavs also need to work on their defense and slowing the pace down. Easier said than done, but going back to LY's Finals, their five wins (including X-Mas) over GSW have seen them allow no more than 108 points every time. They can't win a game in the 130's. Good news is that they are 5-1 SU/ATS after allowing 130+ pts the previous game. I know the Dubs look invincible right now, but will they really "run the table" and go 16-0 (SU) in the playoffs? I'm still thinking "no!" 10* Cleveland | |||||||
06-04-17 | Cavs +8.5 v. Warriors | Top | 113-132 | Loss | -102 | 59 h 34 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Shortly after a humbling 113-91 loss in Game 1, both LeBron James and Cavs HC Ty Lue were quick to remark that they "know" their team is capable of playing better. Certainly, it would be difficult to imagine the Cavaliers playing any worse. Thursday saw them shoot just 34.9% from the floor and turn the ball over 20 times (compared to just 4 TO's for GSW). Additionally, they were dominated early on the offensive glass. It goes w/o saying that you can't beat the Warriors when you allow them to attempt 20 more shots than you. Golden State wound up attempting 106 field goal attempts in Game 1, which is just insane. Another key here is that the public was largely on the underdog Cavs in Game 1. With the lopsided result, it appears as they (the public) have "abandoned ship" so-to-speak and now we're able to get a better number. Take the points in Game 2. James and Kyrie Irving certainly did their part for the Cavs in Game 1. The duo scored or assisted on 73 points on 58 shots w/ LeBron attempting a playoff-high number of field goals in the paint. Unfortunately, the rest of the team was just dreadful and that's putting it mildly. The Cavs players w/o the names "James" or "Irving" on the back of their uniforms combined for just 18 points on 3 of 28 shooting, including 1 of 10 from three-point range when neither of the two assisted. Considering the offensive efficiency we saw from the Cavs as a whole in the first three rounds (#1 overall, even ahead of GSW), it goes w/o saying that we should see marked improvement for Game 2. Tristan Thompson had 0 points and 4 rebounds. Whatever happened to Kyle Korver? On the defensive end, we also need some improvement from the Cavaliers. There were far too many easy layups from the Warriors in Game 1. Kevin Durant, in particular, had a field day en route to a game-high 38 points. What's crazy is that Klay Thompson was just 1 of 12 from the field and Draymond Green had only nine points. The Warriors actually only shot 42.5% as a team, but the key was the volume of attempts. They still had two quarters of 33+ points. For a frame of reference, in no other playoff game has GSW taken more than 91 FG attempts. Yes, the Dubs remain unbeaten in the playoffs and there's a certain "air" of invincibility surrounding this team right now. But, to me, that marks a good "go against" opportunity as you have to remember Cleveland held a double digit lead in each of its previous 10 games. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
06-01-17 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -105 | 85 h 26 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (9:05 ET): Much is being made of the fact that favorites have gone 11-1 ATS the last 12 years in the NBA Finals. This includes the Warriors winning and covering each of the last two years at the Cavs' expense. For the third year in a row (an NBA first!), these teams meet again to determine to who is the best the league has to offer. Though Golden State has Kevin Durant for the rubber match and has yet to lose this postseason (12-0 SU), I'm a bit surprised how little respect the defending league champs are getting, not just for Game 1, but the series as a whole. Clearly, regular season numbers (particularly at the defensive end) were not up to LY's standard. But that had a lot to do w/ an 0-9 SU record when LeBron James was out of the lineup. Contrary to conventional wisdom, James and company have "flipped a switch" here in the playoffs, turning in the third best defensive efficiency rating (GSW is 1st) while being #1 (by a wide margin) in offensive efficiency. Cleveland has lost only one time in the playoffs and that came in a game they led by as many as 21 points. Take the points in Game 1. People like to criticize the East, but Golden State had about as easy a path through the West as one could imagine. First round opponent Portland was hardly an equal. The same could be said for second round opponent Utah. In the Conference Finals, San Antonio led them by 25 pts in Game (here in Oakland!) before Kwahi Leonard got hurt, which changed the entire complexion of that series. There has been one game in each round where the Dubs have had to overcome a deficit of at least nine points. So while there have been some impressive performances along the way, it hasn't been flawless. Note the Cavs have enjoyed a double digit lead in 10 consecutive games going back to the close out game of the 1st round. That's pretty impressive considering they are the underdog here. A key weapon here for the Cavs (besides the obvious answer of LeBron) is the three-point shot. Golden State is thought of as "three-point shooting team," but in the playoffs Cleveland has been better. In fact, the Cavs are connecting at a historical pace. They are averaging a stunning 14.6 three pointers made per game, which if it holds, would be a playoff record. They're shooting at a 43.5% clip and that's including a 4 of 12 mark from Richard Jefferson & James Jones, who don't figure to shoot much in these finals. Something not even being considered here is the fact that Golden State HC Steve Kerr is likely to miss Game 1. That HAS to matter some, right? 8* Cleveland | |||||||
05-23-17 | Celtics +15.5 v. Cavs | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
8* Boston (8:35 ET): Going into Sunday night, it was considered a formality that both the Cavaliers and Warriors would sweep their way into a third straight NBA Finals matchup. Golden State has since held up its end of the bargain, but something funny happened in Cleveland. The Cavs lost Game 3, at home, despite holding a 21-point lead in the second half. It appeared as if they completely "shut it down" far too early, thereby enabling the Boston comeback. Keep in mind that the Celtics were w/o their best player, Isaiah Thomas, and that will continue to be the case the rest of the way. Despite the shocking win Sunday night, the oddsmakers have made no real adjustment for Game 4 and I believe that to be a mistake. Take the points here as the Cavs' level of dominance in the first two games continues to skew the number far too much in their favor. Obviously, I would be stunned at another outright win by the Celtics here. LeBron James is highly unlikely to go "M.I.A." again like he did in the second half of Game 3. But we finally did start to see some regression from the Cleveland side when it comes to three-point shooting. Currently, the team is on pace to set a new NBA record for # of three-pointers made per game. They're over 15.0 per game right now and eventually that number is going to drop. They also obviously are not going to continue shooting at a near 60% clip from two-point range, something they did in Games 1 and 2 in Boston. Let's also not forget about the Cavs' defensive issues from the regular season where they finished just 22nd in efficiency. Without Thomas, Boston got a number of key contributions in Game 3. Front and center was Marcus Smart, who made seven three-pointers and finished w/ 27 points. Avery Bradley hit the game-winner and finished w/ 20 points. Kelly Olynyk and Jonas Jerebko were both key contributors off the bench. Obviously, not all these players will be able to perform at the level we saw Sunday. But I also don't think all are going to regress either. As long as someone can step up for the Celtics, they should be more than capable of staying within this very generous number. 8* Boston | |||||||
05-22-17 | Pirates v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
8* Run Line Atlanta (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Braves +1.5. I had success w/ Atlanta in their last series, going 2-0 on or against them. I played them (on the RL) Friday when they sought revenge for a prior three-game sweep at the hands of the Nationals and they ended up winning that game "outright," 7-4. In position to "return the favor" (sweep) on Sunday, I then played AGAINST them as they fell 3-2. This is yet another series where they'll be looking to avenge an early season sweep. The Pirates won all three games against the Braves at PNC Park in early April, two of them coming by a one-run margin. But the Bucs not a good ballclub by any means, so I see Atlanta doing no worse than a one-run loss tonight. Pittsburgh is favored on the money line here for just one reason and that reason is Gerrit Cole is starting. In fairness, it's pretty criminal that he comes in w/ only a 4-5 team start record given his 2.84 ERA and 1.018 WHIP. He's made eight consecutive quality starts. But the issue for Cole has been a lack of run support; prior to his last outing (6-1 win over Washington), the offense had scored three runs or less for him five straight times. This Pittsburgh team is no longer to be feared as they actually check in w/ a worse run differential (-32) than Atlanta (-23) and the offensive numbers have been downright brutal. Only the Giants and Padres have scored fewer runs among NL teams and they are 29th in both team batting average and slugging as well. The Braves are still adjusting to life in their new home park, but are now at least 8-10 here. Pittsburgh has an 8-15 record on the road this season, so again they're shaky with the minus in front of them on the ML. They're also 0-6 on Mondays this year, for whatever that's worth. Back to back home wins (over the Phillies) really doesn't impress me and yday's 1-0 win is a result that would equal a win for us w/ how we're playing this one. The Braves have still won 7 of 10 overall and will give them baseball to Mike Foltynewicz, who is off B2B quality starts himself. Going back further, we find Foltynewicz has allowed 3 ER or less in six of his past seven starts. He is more than capable of keeping this one close. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5) | |||||||
05-22-17 | Royals +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
8* Run Line Kansas City (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Royals +1.5. Admittedly, it's not the greatest spot for KC here. They come off a doubleheader Sunday (split w/ Twins) and are facing a Yankees team that sports the American League's second best run differential. But the Yanks were on the verge of getting swept before yday's win in Tampa Bay and this is a revenge spot for Royals starter Jason Vargas, who goes against Michael Pineda a second straight time tonight. Last week, New York took two of three at Kansas City w/ Vargas really struggling in his outing. But despite that, he still has better YTD numbers compared to Pineda (surprised?) and I don't see him and his team doing worse than a one-run loss here. Last Wednesday at Kauffman Stadium vs. the Yanks, Vargas allowed six runs in just four innings of work, easily his worst outing of the season so far. In fact, he came into that start having allowed just one run in his previous 19 IP (15 inning scoreless streak)! In four different starts this year, Vargas has gone at least six innings w/o allowing a single earned run. The six runs allowed in last week's start more than doubled the number he'd allowed in his previous seven starts combined (5) yet his ERA still remains the second best among all AL starters. Yes, I'm well aware that the last start was a continuation of some poor career numbers against New York, but the team in Pinstripes comes into the series having dropped 7 of its last 11, so this is a good time to fade them. The revenge angle in play here is also one of my favorites. It's hard to beat the same pitcher two times in a row. It's not like Pineda pitched all that great last Wednesday either; he allowed four runs and gave up two home runs. His career numbers against the Royals include a 4-5 record and 3.95 ERA. The triumvirate of Salvador Perez, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer are a combined 22 of 58 against him w/ four home runs. I'll call for the Royals, Vargas in particular, to do a lot better this go around. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5) | |||||||
05-21-17 | Rangers v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
8* Run Line Detroit (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Tigers +1.5. They snapped the Rangers' 10-game win streak yday (won 9-3) behind a dominant effort from Justin Verlander, who allowed just four hits over seven innings (did allow three runs). In reality, the game was over after the home half of the 1st inning when the Tigers connected on back to back to back solo HR's to take a 3-0 lead. They do have to face Yu Darvish tonight, but that creates an opportunity where the run line is now in play. Texas may have just won 10 in a row, but all that's gotten them to is two games above the proverbial Mendoza Line (.500) and I maintain that this is a regression team in 2017. Expect the home team to do no worse than a one-run loss Sunday night. Starting here for Detroit is Matt Boyd, who admittedly has not pitched well of late. Well, to be specific, he's coming off a very rough outing, one where he allowed seven runs in just 2 1/3 innings against Baltimore. Prior to that, he'd tossed three consecutive quality starts and had not allowed more than 3 ER in any of his previous six starts. Keep in mind that the Rangers are still only 7-13 on the road w/ a paltry .205 team batting average. After being favored in the first two games of this series, this is a good value tonight on the Tigers. Darvish has been mostly dominant this season, his last start in particular. But he's also gotten to face both Philadelphia and San Diego, two terrible National League teams, in his home park the L2 starts. If there is an issue I see w/ Darvish, it's the question of durability. Just two years removed from Tommy John surgery, he's at 58 2/3 IP already in 2017 after throwing just 100 1/3 innings in '16. He's thrown at least 95 pitches in all but one start this year w/ a high of 125 (!). How long can he keep this pace up? The Tigers are a team that can put plenty of runs on the board (5.3 per game at home) and they project to be a lot more prolific as long as J.D. Martinez stays in the lineup. He's now homered in six of the eight games he's played this year, including yday. Something else to remember here is that the Texas bullpen has generally been terrible, especially on the road. As maligned as Detroit's pen has been this year, Rangers' relievers have a higher WHIP and the numbers on the road are far worse than the Tigers' at home. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5) | |||||||
05-19-17 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
8* Run Line Kansas City (8:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Royals +1.5. The theme of this three-pack will be revenge as in every team I'm taking has it for a prior sweep at the hands of tonight's opponent. In this instance, KC is actually 0-5 head to head this season w/ Minnesota having dropped a pair of games at home late last month. What makes this such an opportune time to take them though is that the Twins had to play a doubleheader against the Rockies. While Minny was able to salvage a split of the two games yday (won Game 2, 2-0). you have to wonder what kind of effect playing that much baseball in one day and then starting a new series w/o rest will have. My guess is the Royals will do no worse than a one-run loss here. The Twins came up to bat 17 times yday, yet scored only three runs total. This is the continuation of a trend which has seen the offense held to four runs or less in six consecutive games. Only once in the L10 games have they finished w/ 10+ hits and they're batting only .219 this last week. This all has to be "music to the ears" of Royals starter Nate Karns, who already comes in w/ a 2.08 ERA and 0.923 WHIP his last three starts (3-0 TSR). Karns has been racking up the strikeouts as well as he has 22 in his last two starts and a 29-4 KW rate during the three-game win streak. The Twins have NOT faced him this year. It hasn't been a great start to the season for the Royals, but they did win yday, thus avoiding what would have been a sweep by the Yankees. They've also won 7 of their last 10 overall. Minnesota, a 100+ loss team a year ago, got off to a surprisingly good start but seems primed to start heading in the opposite direction. They have a losing record at home so far and the rotation is not set up well in this series as Erwin Santana and Jose Berrios both went yday. Hector Santiago is on the mound tonight as his L3 starts have gone very different from Karns' as he has a 6.45 ERA and 1.565 WHIP. That's mainly due to a terrible last outing where he allowed six runs (three HR's) in just 2 2/3 IP at Cleveland. Santiago did beat the Royals in his first start of '17, but has a 3.82 ERA against them in 16 career starts. 8* Run Line Kansas City (+1.5) | |||||||
05-19-17 | Nationals v. Braves +1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
8* Run Line Atlanta (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Braves +1.5. The theme of this three-pack will be revenge as in every team I'm taking has it for a prior three-game sweep by tonight's opponent. In this instance, Atlanta is seeking revenge for a three-game sweep that took place here at home last month. Admittedly, this shapes up as a pretty daunting series for them, even though they are again the home team. They will be w/o Freddie Freeman (their best hitter), not just for this series, but for the next eight weeks. Yesterday saw them get crushed 9-0 (here at home) by Toronto. But, prior to that they had won three in a row and five of six. I see them doing no worse than a one-run loss in tonight's series opener. Washington isn't exactly in fine form either right now after B2B blowout losses at the hands of Pittsburgh. Run differential indicates that the Pirates have played worse than the Braves this season, so there is hope. The Nats allowed 10 runs themselves yday afternoon, most of that damage coming off four home runs. Tonight's starter Gio Gonzalez has pitched relatively well this year, but the number of pitches being thrown by Nationals' starters is a bit of a concern for me. Gonzalez has now thrown 100+ pitches in seven consecutive starts. This is a direct result of the Nats' disastrous bullpen, which has a 6.39 ERA and 1.630 WHIP on the road. That major weakness is something that can give Braves' fans some hope here as I'm banking on the home team being able to score in the late innings here. Thus far, SunTrust Park hasn't been too kind to the home team. The Braves are just 6-9 in their new stadium, but they've also played the fewest number of home games in all of MLB, so it's still a small sample size. They do need to (obviously) decrease the number of runs they're allowing here (6.3 per game so far!). Charged with that task tonight is knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who has generally been effective this year in limiting runs. Perhaps his best start came against these Nationals back on April 20th as he allowed just three runs on three hits in 7 IP. It was a game the Braves lost by one run (3-2), a result which would be just fine tonight given how we're playing the game. 8* Run Line Atlanta (+1.5) | |||||||
05-19-17 | Yankees v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
8* Run Line Tampa Bay (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Rays +1.5. The theme of this three-pack will be revenge as in every team I'm taking has it for a prior three-game sweep by tonight's opponent. In this instance, the Yankees swept Tampa Bay back in early April. But that was in the Bronx. The Rays had previously taken two of three from their AL East rival here at Tropicana Field in the first series of 2017. They have been a superior team at home so far this season, going 12-10 here as opposed to 9-12 on the road. The Yanks have been formidable in most settings so far, racing out to the American League's 2nd best record. But I believe the Rays are better than their overall record and will do no worse than a one-run loss here. While TB has been better at home this year, they come into tonight off a pair of impressive road wins over Cleveland. They have an edge over their opponents tonight in that they were off yday while the Yankees were wrapping up a series in Kansas City. After those two wins in Cleveland, the Rays have now outscored opponents over the course of the first 43 games. Tonight, they turn to a spot starter, but one that has come through for them in the past. That would be Erasmo Ramirez, who on April 20th came in and held the Tigers to just one run on two hits (solo HR) over five innings. He also struck out five in an easy 8-1 win for the team. On Sunday, he threw 28 pitches in relief and didn't allow a hit w/ four strikeouts in two innings. That was at Boston, another series that the Rays won. The Yankees might be known as "The Bronx Bombers," but Tampa Bay's lineup has been as prolific as any when it comes to hitting home runs this year. They had 10 in the series vs. Cleveland, a franchise record for a three-game set. That ties them w/ the Yankees for the overall American League (59) this year. I bring this up b/c in all but two starts this season, NY starter Luis Severino has allowed a HR. One of the two he didn't came his last time out, but even then he lasted just 2 1/3 innings and had more walks than strikeouts. He also allowed three runs and it took him 44 pitches to get the first three outs. When he was mercifully pulled, he had already thrown 77 pitches while recording only seven outs. That's highly inefficient. At the plate, the Yanks have been completely "feast or famine" in a 3-5 stretch, getting held to three runs or less in half of those games. 8* Run Line Tampa Bay (+1.5) | |||||||
05-15-17 | Wizards +5 v. Celtics | Top | 105-115 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 23 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:05 ET): Admittedly, I'm bucking a lot of history here. Washington is 0-8 SU/ATS its last nine visits to Boston. The home team has won ALL 10 head to head meetings between these two teams this season. And home teams have historically dominated Game 7's in the NBA playoffs, winning 23 of the previous 30 straight up, though Utah did win in LA in Round 1 this year. As a whole, this series has been very even w/ the Wiz outscoring the Celtics by just a single point. Therefore, my natural inclination is to take the points. Throw in the fact that the Wiz raced out to double digit leads in each of the first two games here in Boston and one could make the arguement that they've been the better team. Actually, they've led by double digits in four of the six games so far. Take the points. Game 6 was Washington's turn to come from behind as they erased a five-point fourth quarter deficit and won on a John Wall three-pointer in the closing seconds. Now, that's by no means a large come back, so again, it somewhat plays into the fact that the Wizards have been the better team in this series. There is likely to be a ton of focus here on a "clock error," at the end of Game 6, which cost the Celtics some time to win the game. But that's all "water under the bridge now." Somewhat shocking is the fact that home teams were 0-10 straight up in these playoffs when facing elimination prior to the Washington win Friday night! So that's a trend that clearly now favors the Wizards. Being able to win a game while shooting 5 of 24 from three-point range was huge for the Wiz. You have to think they'll shoot better here, even on the road. Overall, Washington has not shot well in B2B games. They're just over 40% overall from the field and are an awful 12 of 53 from three-point range. Again, you have to think those numbers are going to improve here. That means trouble for Boston, who is actually worse defensively at home to begin with. Keys for Washington defensively are to force the Celtics into driving (just 7 of 31 L3 games, including an awful 1 of 13 from Isaiah Thomas) and focus on Al Horford, not Marcus Smart. Smart has been a borderline disaster in this series, shooting just 32 percent from the floor and below 50 percent from the free throw line. Yes, home court advantage is powerful in these Game 7's. But I simply do not believe the Celtics are any better than the Wizards, which makes the points look attractive. 10* Washington | |||||||
05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 91-92 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:05 ET): The first quarter has typically belonged to the Wizards in this series, but that certainly was NOT the case in Game 5 at Boston as they were outscored 33-21 and never really recovered (lost 123-101). But all that did was square away the two teams' scoring in the series. The 22-pt win doubled the Celtics' margin of victory from Games 1 and 2 combined while the Wizards won Games 3 and 4 (here at home) by a total of 44 pts. The home team has now won all nine H2H meetings this season, so right there is a natural lean to Washington. Throw in the fact that they held a double digit lead in each of the first four games of the series and the fact they're still dead even with Boston in point differential despite being down a game, I'm laying the short number here. Save for Game 5, the pattern of Washington beating Boston by a larger margin than the other way around goes back to the regular season. In the Celtics' four trips to the Nation's Capital this season, they have lost by margins of 25, 15, 27 and 19! That's an average of 21.5 points per game! While the Wiz sport a losing record on the road, they are 35-11 SU at home and average 110.7 PPG. More importantly, they also allow about 5.5 PPG fewer at home compared to the road. Boston, who is only 8-15 SU as a 'dog this year, scores roughly four points per game less on the road. Since '05, NBA playoff teams off a double digit road loss and returning home cover at a 56% ATS rate. Again, it bears mentioning that Washington held a double digit lead in each of the first four games of this series. They'd outscored Boston by 22 points over those four games, so the series being "even" at that point was certainly misleading. I know the Celtics then dominated Game 5, but I see no way they repeat their 53% shooting (65% in 1st quarter!) or go 16 of 33 on three-point attempts again. Washington shot just 38.5% overall in Game 5 (series worst), including 7 of 29 from three-point range. This is a classic "zig zag" game. Look for this series to go to a Game 7. 8* Washington | |||||||
05-12-17 | Twins +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
8* Run Line Minnesota (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Twins +1.5. Any disadvantage Minnesota might have here by virtue of Cleveland being off yday is mitigated by two factors. One, they themselves got an "extra" off day when Tuesday's game at Chicago was rained out. Two, they have Ervin Santana on the bump. Save for his last start, Santana has been spectacular this year. And even after allowing six runs to Boston on Sunday, his ERA and WHIP are still 1.72 and 0.787, respectively. That tells you right there just how good the first six starts were (more on those in a bit!). Minnesota also has revenge here as they got swept at home by Cleveland last month. With Santana pitching, I see them doing no worse than a one-run loss tonight. Santana did pitch against Cleveland in last month's series. He allowed only one run and four hits in six innings, leaving w/ a 2-1 lead. Sadly, the bullpen failed to protect that lead and the end result was a 6-2 loss. But, clearly, not Santana's fault. Outside of the last start, that's the only other time the Twins have lost this year w/ Santana pitching. He was 6 for 6 in terms of quality starts heading into Sunday, allowing 1 or 0 ER every time out. All told, he allowed just three runs in 41 IP, which is obviously phenomenal. It's not like Cleveland has been hitting well of late either; they are batting a collective .227 the L7 games and that's even after scoring a total of 13 runs in their previous two games. Before that, they'd been held to three runs or fewer seven consecutive times. So this is an ideal matchup for Santana, who is only allowing 4.02 hits per nine innings already. Opponents are batting just .135 against him, an AL best. It's not just Santana, the entire Twins team is surprising. They got me last night, beating the White Sox 7-6, and have now won 9 of 13. An offense led by Miguel Sano has scored a total of 20 runs in the L3 games alone and that means trouble for embattled Indians starter Josh Tomlin, who comes in w/ an unsightly 9.94 ERA and 2.052 WHIP at home. Cleveland is coming off a disappointing 4-5 road trip here and only managed a split against the two worst teams in the American League, Kansas City and Toronto. Their lineup has been hit by injuries and there's the possibility as many as three regulars will miss tonight's game. 8* Run Line Minnesota (+1.5) | |||||||
05-10-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -108 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:05 ET): The home team has yet to lose in this series, so after four games we're all squared away at two games apiece. That may give the impression that it's been an even battle so far between the Wizards and Celtics, but a deeper investigation reveals that is simply not the case. In fact, the top seed should feel very fortunate not to be eliminated already. Boston has not just trailed by double digits in every game in this series, but has allowed Washington to go on individual runs of 16-0, 22-0 and 26-0 at various points. I believe that the Wiz are the better team here and if you look at the individual game lines, it would appear the oddsmakers agree w/ that assertion. Yes, they're 0-7 SU/ATS their last seven visits to Boston, but they scored 80 first quarter points in Games 1 and 2 and led at the half both times. That 0-7 streak seems due to end. If not now, when? After blowing those double digit leads (17 in Gm 1, 13 in Gm 2) in Boston, Washington easily could have folded their tent. But instead they blew the Celtics out in both home games. Game 3, like Games 1 and 2, saw them get off to a blistering start. This time, however, they were able to maintain the advantage and won 116-89. Game 4 marked the first time in the series that the Wizards did NOT score at least 38 pts in the 1Q and the Celtics actually led early in the second half. But, thanks to an insane 26-0 run, the Wizards put together another huge quarter (42 in 3Q) and won 121-102. Washington has now scored at least 111 pts in every game in ths series. Remember that the loss in Game 2 came in overtime. I can't overstate enough how the Wiz have mostly outplayed the Celtics over the course of the first four games. If not for Isaiah Thomas, Boston might very well be sitting at home right now. Let's also not forget that Boston dropped Games 1 and 2 at home in their 1st rd series against a pretty pedestrian Bulls team. That series swung on a key injury to Chicago PG Rajon Rondo. So that's two series where you can say the Celtics have had the "luck of the Irish." In each of the first three games, Washington scored at least 63 pts by halftime. They won Game 4 w/out Kelly Oubre, Jr and now get him back from a one-game suspension. What does the extra day off between games mean? Well, historically speaking, good things for the Wizards. They are 9-5 ATS, 10-4 SU when playing w/ exactly two days' rest. Meanwhile, Boston is just 5-11 ATS, 6-10 SU. Yes, the home team has won all eight times these teams have met this year. But the games here in Boston have been much closer. Take the points. 10* Washington | |||||||
05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
10* Houston (9:05 ET): The Rockets opened this series w/ an impressive 126-99 win and cover as six-point chalk. Despite then getting blown out themselves in Game 2, their series' prospects were nevertheless looking pretty good as they were returning home and the Spurs are now w/o Tony Parker for the rest of the season. But, things have a funny way of working out sometimes as it was San Antonio taking care of business in Game 3 w/ a surprise 102-93 win and cover. Holding Houston below 100 pts in consecutive contests is no small achievement, but then again San Antonio was #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Still, I anticipate the Rockets bouncing back offensively tonight and squaring this series up at two games apiece. Lay the points. Game 3 actually marked the lowest scoring game for the Rockets ALL YEAR! That was after Game 2 marked their second lowest scoring game of the season. This is a team that had been held below 100 pts in only FIVE games during the regular season. Remember, they shot 22 of 50 from three-point range in Game 1 en route to scoring an impressive 126 points. So we know they're capable of exceeding their average PPG against San Antonio. Certainly, we should expect some sort of bounce back tonight. They average 116.3 PPG at home and James Harden did get back on track in Game 3 w/ 43 points. The problem was the bench totaling only 10 pts and nine of those came from one player, Eric Gordon. A team's supporting cast and reserves tend to play much better at home and in this department, I expect a huge upgrade for Houston in Game 4. The loss of Parker has yet to be felt by the Spurs, but it should soon take hold. LaMarcus Aldridge scored 26 pts in Game 3, but I would not expect a repeat of that tonight. He's averaged less than 15 PPG so far in the postseason and had just 19 pts total in the first two games. Again, this is unprecented territory w/ Houston coming off consecutive games where they were held under 100 pts. That did not happen a single time in the regular season! Following a SU Loss this season, the Rockets are 23-6 SU and 18-10-1 ATS, winning by an average of 9.3 points per game. This is a "must-win" game for them as they can't afford to go down 3-1 in the series w/ just one more game (at most) at home. 10* Houston | |||||||
05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +3.5 | Top | 115-94 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): It goes w/o saying that the Raptors have to be thrilled to be out of Cleveland. Going back to last year's Eastern Conference Finals, they are 0-5 SU/ATS in the playoffs there, losing by an average of nearly THIRTY points per game! Game 1 of this series was bad (lost 116-105), but Game 2 was even worse (lost 125-103) and Toronto basically trailed the entire time in both games. DeMar DeRozan was downright awful Wednesday night as he was just 2 for 11 from the field and scored only five points. Plus, he's now resorting to (facetiously) offering $100 to anyone who knows how to stop LeBron James! Even worse is that Kyle Lowry now has a sprained ankle. The good news is that DeRozan can't be any worse than he was in Game 2 and I have to believe Lowry is going to try and at least give it a "go" here. I view teams like stocks and tonight clearly marks an opportunity to "buy low" on the Raptors. Take the points. Let us not forget what happened in LY's Eastern Conference Finals. As they did in this series, the Raptors got blown out in Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland. But then they came back to take the next two here at home. There's some real value here considering Cleveland was only a seven-point home favorite for Game 2. Plus, I anticipate the public continuing to bet this number up, so I'd probably wait as long as possible to get the best available number. Toronto is 30-14 SU at home this year, outscoring visitors by 7.6 points per game. Their scoring average jumps to 110.3 PPG (only 101.7 PPG on the road). Cleveland actually finished w/ a losing road record in the regular season (20-21 SU) and has been outscored away from home over the course of the year. They trailed Indiana by as many as 25 in Game 3 of the 1st round before a miraculous comeback. The Cavs have been on fire in the first two games, particularly from three point range. They are now averaging over 14 makes per game from behind the arc and shooting 42.3% there for the entire playoffs. That's a clip that probably cannot be sustained. Let's not let the offensive outbursts from the first two games mask the fact that the defending World Champs are questionable at best on the defensive end where they ranked 22nd in efficiency (lowest among all playoff teams!) during the regular season. Toronto, who was just 5 of 17 from three-point range in Game 2, should be the ones "getting it going" from distance tonight. The Raptors, not Cleveland or Boston, were the team that had the best net efficiency rating and point differential in the Eastern Conference this year. 8* Toronto | |||||||
05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
8* Washington (8:05 ET): There's two ways to look at the Wizards' performance in Boston in Games 1 and 2. The pessimist would say that they blew two golden opportunties to "steal" a game on the road and take away the Celtics' home court advantage in the series. The pessimist certainly has a point. When you score a combined 80 pts in the first quarter and still end up 0-2 ATS, well, that's pretty inexcusable. But the optimist would point to the fact that the Wiz could easily be up 2-0 in the series, having held double digit leads in both games. We also know they are a significantly better team at home (33-11 SU here). Sure, the line might "turn some off" (Washington now favored by more here than Boston was in either Games 1 or 2!), but not I. I'll lay the points w/ the Wizards in a "must-win" game. In the regular season, Boston was 2-15 ATS when on a win streak of at least three games. But they now come into tonight on a six-game SU and ATS win streak. An emotional Isaiah Thomas, still dealing w/ the tragic death of his sister, has been borderline unstoppable so far. Especially in Game 2 where he went for 53 points. But nor he or his team can keep up the production we saw in the first two games of this series. In averaging 126 points per game, the Celtics have shot 51.1% against the Wizards. But history now says it is Washington's turn to break out offensively. Their three-point shooting percentage in particular goes way up when at home (to 39.8%). They were only 10 of 34 in Game 2 w/ Bradley Beal being the biggest offender at 1 of 9. Of course, it's not as if Washington has had much problem scoring against the Celtics. They've gotten off to ridiculous starts both games (again, 80 pts in the 1Q!) and averaged 115 PPG. As the underdog, you would have figured they would have covered at least once, if not taken a game outright. Game 2, which ended up going into overtime, saw Boston take its first lead halfway through the fourth quarter! The Wizards led by as many as 13 late in the third quarter. That was after also holding a DD lead in Game 1. Remember that the Celtics also caught a massive break in Rd 1 in that Bulls' starting PG Rajon Rondo got hurt, which totally changed the complexion of that series. This is a weak top seed that lost two home games to an 8-seed and has trailed by double digits in two others. Washington won both regular season meetings at home, by 15 and 25 points. 8* Washington | |||||||
05-03-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5 | Top | 96-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
8* San Antonio (9:35 ET): The Cavs and Warriors are the only teams yet to lose a game this postseason, but don't sleep on the Rockets, who have only dropped one and just ran the Spurs out of the gym Monday night. In a real shocker, Houston came into San Antonio and took Game 1 w/ incredible ease, rolling up 126 points on what was the #1 rated team in defensive efficiency during the regular season. The Rockets are now 12-4 ATS as underdogs this season, a role which they find themselves in yet again for Game 2. However, not to expect a bounce back from the Spurs would be foolish. When off a SU loss this year, the team has outscored its opponents by an impressive margin of 11.6 points per game. With the series set to move to Houston for the next two games, this is basically a "must win" for San Antonio and I see them getting the job done. As mentioned already, the Spurs were #1 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. They allow only 97.5 PPG at home. So the 126 they allowed to Houston was definitely a surprise to most. Given that no team was better at defending the three-point line this year, one would think the Spurs were uniquely suited to stop the Rockets, a team that very much "lives and dies" behind the arc. But instead, Game 1 saw Houston go 22 of 50 from three-point range, a rather stunning performance. I'm willing to bet on that NOT happening again. Furthermore, we should see improvement from San Antonio's offense as well, which was held under 100 pts (9 of 29 from 3-pt range) by a subpar defensive team. Perhaps the biggest surprise of all from Game 1 was the incredible amount of support James Harden received from his supporting cast. The four other starters combined for 64 points on 21 of 43 shooting, including 11 of 25 from three-point range. Trevor Ariza scored 23 and Clint Capela added 20. I just can't see a repeat of that taking place here. Meanwhile, the Spurs' LaMarcus Aldridge was a disaster w/ a -36 plus-minus, the worst ever turned in by a Greg Popovich coached player in the postseason. He'll be better tonight. It's way too early to write off the Spurs. They shot just 36.9% from the floor in Game 1, a percentage which should easily be topped here tonight. Expect much better play - on both ends of the court - for Game 2. 8* San Antonio | |||||||
05-03-17 | Raptors +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
8* Toronto (7:05 ET): The Cavs and Warriors are the only teams yet to lose this postseason, so let the inevitable discussion about a potential NBA Finals "rubber match" commence. Never before in league history have the same two teams met three consecutive years in the Finals, by the way. While Cleveland swept Indiana in the 1st round, it was hardly an impressive four-game stretch as they won by an average of only four points per game while giving up an average of 108.7 points per game. Defense was a real issue for the defending World Champs down the stretch and they finished 22nd in the league in efficiency, which actually ranks LAST among all playoff teams. However, they were seemingly able to "turn it on" in Game 1 of this series, beating Toronto 116-105 as 6.5-pt chalk. They never trailed. The Raptors did take the Cavaliers to six games in LY's Eastern Conference Finals, but their four losses were by an average of 28.5 PPG and they dropped all three games here in Cleveland. So what must the underdog do to reverse the course of history here? Well, shooting better would be a good start. They finished Game 1 at just 43.8% from the field, which won't get it done against the Cavs. Considering Indiana, an inferior offensive team, was able to shoot 46.6% in Rd 1, I expect better from Toronto here. Digging themselves an early hole doomed them Monday. It should be pointed out that the Cavs' penchant for blowing large leads again reared its ugly head though as the Raptors were able to cut the deficit to seven in the third quarter. It should be noted Toronto is 7-3 STRAIGHT UP following a double digit loss this year. Until further notice, I'll maintain that Cleveland's defense (or lack there of) remains a problem. Remember that they actually trailed by 25 in Game 3 of the opening round and also were fortunate that the Pacers missed a wide-open shot that would have won Game 1. With three or more days rest, the Cavs are a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS this year. But in all other games, they're just 34-45-4 ATS. The Raptors were 14-8 ATS as a road dog this year prior to the Game 1 loss. Really, I can't see them playing any worse than they did Monday and note they were essentially dead even w/ the Cavs over the final three quarters. 8* Toronto | |||||||
05-01-17 | Raptors +7 v. Cavs | Top | 105-116 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
10* Toronto (7:05 ET): Believe it or not, but of these two teams, it was the Raptors that finished the regular season w/ the better point differential and net efficiency rating. Yes, this is "the playoffs," but Cleveland was hardly impressive in Round 1, even in sweeping the far less talented Pacers. They won the four games by an average of only four points per game w/ largest MOV in any game being just six. They were fortunate in that Indiana missed potential GW shots in Games 1 and 4, plus blew a 25-point halftime lead in Game 3. Unlike Indiana (Paul George), Toronto has more than just one reliable option and the Cavs defense remains worrisome. The road team won three of the four regular season matchups and I'll gladly take the points here. Among playoff teams, Cleveland posted the worst defensive efficiency rating in the regular season. They rank 22nd overall in that department, a far cry from the 10th place ranking they had in LY's Title run. Against Indiana, the defending World Champs conceded an average of 108.7 points per game on 46.6% shooting. They gave up no fewer than 102 pts every game and could never seemingly put the Pacers away in any game. That's worrisome as they prepare to face a far better offensive opponent. I'm also a tad bit concerned over the heavy usage rate of LeBron James. Right now, he's averaging a playoff-high 43.8 minutes per game. Three of the four regular season matchups w/ the Raptors were decided by four points or less, the other was a Raptors win where the Cavs rested starters (reg season finale). Toronto wound up needing six games to eliminate a pesky Milwaukee team in Round 1, but they won that series despite averaging only 93.8 points per game. That means, unlike Cleveland, they played some defense. In fact, they were #2 in defensive efficiency in Round 1, trailing only Golden State. Meanwhile, the Cavs were actually WORSE defensively in the series vs. Indiana than they were in the regular season. If it's not become patently obvious to you yet, let me be clear that I expect the Raptors to break out offensively in this game and this series. Will it be enough to win? Not sure, but they are a better team now compared to the one that took the Cavs to six games in LY's Eastern Conference Finals. 10* Toronto | |||||||
04-30-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 111-123 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 29 m | Show |
8* Washington (1:05 ET): Both of these teams won their respective first round series in six games. The Wizards ousted the Hawks while the Celtics took care of the Bulls. However, as recently as 10 days ago, one might find it hard to believe that both teams would finish off their opponents in the same time. Washington jumped out to a 2-0 series lead on the Hawks, before dropping both games in Atlanta. But, on the road in Game 6, they wound up playing their "best" game of the series, finishing things off w/ a 115-99 win and cover. While they did led the Hawks get back into the game, the Wiz led by as many as 22 - again, on the road. Meanwhile, it's easy to forget, but Boston once trailed the 8th seeded Bulls two games to none before storming back to win and cover four straight. That series clearly turned on the (Rajon) Rondo injury. I'm not sure Washington isn't the better team here, so I'll gladly grab the points. These teams split the regular season series with the home team winning all four meetings. Washington has actually lost and failed to cover five in a row here in Boston. But both regular season matchups here were close (decided by single digits), something that was NOT the case in D.C. Something to consider is that prior to the Game 6 closeout of Chicago, Boston was just 2-15 ATS this season when on a win streak of three or more games. Again, they were quite lucky that Rondo got hurt as a middling Bulls team was a lot worse off w/o him. The Celtics' own star player, Isaiah Thomas, has some question marks coming into this series as well. He just attended the funeral for his sister, who was tragically killed in an auto accident, yesterday. The quick turnaround between series certainly does him no favors. I believe the best player in this series has "Wizards" on the front of his jersey. That would be John Wall, who went for 42 pts in the closeout game of Atlanta. Now Wall's 17.8 PPG average vs. Boston in the reg season was his lowest vs. any Eastern Conference opponent this year. But, Bradley Beal more than helped pick up the slack by averaging 28.3 PPG in the three matchups he played. Offensively, the Wizards will present a far greater challenge to the Celtics than the inept Bulls (30th in eff FG%) did. For the sake of comparison, the Wiz are sixth in eff FG%. Note they are also 8-3 ATS off a SU win as a dog this season. 8* Washington | |||||||
04-28-17 | Mets +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
8* Run Line NY Mets (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Mets +1.5. New York is in a terrible way right now, having dropped six straight - all at home. So, perhaps leaving Queens might do them some good. What will eventually be a seven-game trek starts in the Nation's capital as they look to avenge a sweep at the hands of the Nationals from last weekend. I realize that there aren't a whole lot of positives to write about the Mets right now, but getting a pitcher the caliber of Jacob deGrom plus additonal run and a half to work with is a nice value. Taking teams in this revenge spot (if swept in previous series) is also something I do often as it's quite difficult to continually beat the same team on a regular basis, particulary if it's a division rival. The Mets do no worse than a one-run loss here. deGrom has yet to win this season, but he's pitched well in his four starts thus far. He has a 2.55 ERA overall and a 1.00 WHIP on the road. Last time out, he was a single out away from making it four consecutive quality starts to open 2017. It was certainly a strange outing LW vs. Washington as deGrom not only struck out 10, but also walked six batters. That latter number is what cost him the quality start as he had to be pulled earlier than expected. But despite all those free passes and allowing eight hits, deGrom only allowed three runners to score. In his first three starts combined, he allowed just four runs in 19 innings. He's recorded a total of 23 K's in his last two starts, which is impressive as well. The control issues which plagued him in his last start are uncommon and I wound not expect a repeat of that here. In eight career starts vs. Washington, deGrom has an ERA of 3.33. Washington, on the other hand, comes into the series on fire. They've won 9 of 10 and just scored an insane 42 runs in three wins at Colorado. But that level of offensive firepower simply cannot be maintained and one must consider the environment they were playing in (Coors Field). The Mets have generally been competitive, even while losing, as just one game during the streak has been decided by more than three runs. They also have as many wins on the road (4) in seven games as they do in 14 home games. I realize that facing Max Scherzer is certainly not something that seems ideal, but note that the Nats' ace was beaten in his lone home start so far and one of his wins came by a one-run margin. Last time out, when he faced the Mets, he allowed a season high 3 ER. 8* Run Line NY Mets (+1.5) | |||||||
04-27-17 | Raptors v. Bucks -1.5 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 49 m | Show |
10* Milwaukee (7:05 ET): For the 1st time, the Bucks trail in the series and now they face a "must-win" to stay alive in Game 6. Thankfully, they get the contest at home. The reason that they are in this position is that they lost in Toronto, 118-93 on Monday. It was their second straight double digit loss to the Raptors and I continue to be astounded at how few points Milwaukee is scoring. But, as alluded to earlier, I like the home team in this spot as Toronto is just 1-6 ATS all-time when leading in a playoff series, including 0-4 the L3 years. Not only that, but the Raptors were red hot from the field in Game #5 (57.7% overall) and probably will be unable to match that. The Bucks need more than just 63 total points outside of Giannia Antetoukounmpo, which is what they got in the last game. Fortunately, at home, "The Greek Freak" should have more support. Lay the very short number. Milwaukee won both Games 1 and 3 of this series. Game 3, which was here at home, saw them completely dominate en route to an easy 104-77 win and cover as two-point chalk. While they didn't shoot the ball well at all in Game 4, Game 5 they did as they finished 50% from the floor. They were even 10 of 22 from three-point range. Missing 11 free throws certainly hurt, but the bottom line is that Toronto simply found a way to get even hotter. Fortunately, the Bucks are 6-2 straight up this year following a game where they allowed 115+ points. Earlier, I briefly touched upon Toronto's past playoff failures at the betting window. Well, they've also NEVER won three consecutive playoff games in their franchise history. So they have that working against them tonight. One player to monitor here is Bucks' guard Khris Middleton. He obviously wasn't feeling well in the last game and it showed w/ him shooting just 3 of 8 and going for only eight points. He sat out Wednesday's practice, but will set to go for the game. He's averaged 13.6 points, 4.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game for the series. Coming off a blowout loss, I feel that the Bucks are being written off a bit too much considering that this has been a relatively even series (Raptors have only outscored Bucks by a single point). 10* Milwaukee | |||||||
04-26-17 | Mariners v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -130 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
8* Run Line Detroit (7:10 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I'm taking the Tigers +1.5. Not sure why you wouldn't want to grab the additional 1.5 runs here w/ the team that has scored an impressive 32 runs in its last two games, including 19 yday at the Mariners' expense. Those two performances have taken the Tigers' run differential from an ugly -24 to -4 rather quickly and while that's still not necessarily what you want to see from a division leader (Tigers now lead Cleveland by 1 game), it's something you can work with. I played Detroit on the RL yday and obviously did not even need the +1.5 as Felix Hernandez left early for Seattle and the Tigers lineup - sans Miguel Cabrera, J.D. Martinez and Jose Iglesias - put the game "to bed" early w/ a nine-run fifth that gave them a 16-4 lead at the time. Given Seattle's road woes, I can't see the home team doing any worse than a one-run loss here. Seattle's struggles away from Safeco Field were a primary reason for me playing against them yday. They're now just 2-10 in road games so far. They've been outscored by an average of 1.4 rpg and even after their own strong offensive output Tuesday, they still are hitting only a collective .225 outside the Pacific Northwest. The club's road woes have even extended to tonight's starter James Paxton, who allowed five runs in just 4 2/3 innings his last time out, at Oakland. Prior to that, Paxton had tossed 21 scoreless innings to start the year. But I'm not buying much into that and the Tigers have never been too freindly to him either. The last time Paxton pitched here at Comerica Park, he allowed a career-worst 11 hits. Detroit is 5-1 this season against LH starters. Starting opposite Paxton will be Daniel Norris, who will be looking to rebound from one of his own worst efforts in recent memory. Last Thursday in Tampa Bay, he allowed five runs (four earned) in just 4 2/3 innings. The Tigers lost 8-1 and it was the most runs allowed by Norris in 22 starts. In fact, he hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in any of the previous 21 starts! Like Detroit, Seattle's lineup is down some key pieces. Kyle Seager (missed L3 games) may be back tonight, but RF Mitch Haniger (who manager Scott Servias called his "most consistent, hottest hitter") left yday's game w/ a strained oblique. He's expected to hit the DL. Given what happened yday and Seattle's overall play on the road, I'm playing this one the same way. 8* Run Line Detroit (+1.5) | |||||||
04-25-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -3 | Top | 96-92 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
10* LA Clippers (10:35 ET): Injuries have taken their toll in this series. While tied at two games apiece, one could argue that the Jazz have been the team to adjust better. Granted, it helped that Rudy Gobert made a surprising return for Game 4, which resulted in a 105-98 win. Meanwhile, the Clippers are still figuring out how to deal w/ the loss of Blake Griffin. But considering the difference in the line here compared to the last time the Clips hosted a game (Gm 2), it seems to me as if the oddsmakers may be overvaluing the loss of Griffin. Is he really worth approximately six points to the spread? That seems like a lot to me when a team still has Chris Paul. Utah, as noted by me previously, has been lousy as an underdog this year (6-19 straight up). Conversely, the Clips are 28-8 SU when priced as a home favorite. I'll lay the short number for Game 5. It was an interesting split of the two games in Utah as both saw come from behind efforts. Utah had what appeared to be a commanding double digit lead early in Game 3 before wilting late. Then, the Clippers "returned the favor" in Game 4, blowing an 87-80 fourth quarter advantage. The Jazz shot well in both games (53% overall!), so they are the ones that have to feel they may have let one "slip away." I still think not having the home court edge for the series is a major detriment to them. In the two games here in LA, they averaged only 94 points on roughly 47% shooting. That was despite going 18 of 44 from three-point range, a relatively good percentage. It's a good thing that Gobert came back for Game 4 as All-Star Gordon Hayward missed the entire 2H due to being sick. He's listed as probable for tonight, but I question how effective he'll be. Gobert probably isn't going 6 for 6 from the field again either, nor do I see Joe Johnson continuing his surprising strong play either. The Clippers clearly need Paul to step up as he did in Game 3. Though the team only turned it over nine times in Game 4, they didn't shoot the ball nearly as well as Utah did (54% to 44%) and that ultinately was the difference. Defensively, the Clips are a much better team at home, allowing just 44% shooting for the year and about 100 PPG. Something else to keep in mind is that they have not lost B2B games since St. Patrick's Day. That's over a month. For the year, they are outscoring opponents by an impressive 11.1 points per game as a home favorite. They've played w/o Griffin before and I think will get the job done here. 10* LA Clippers |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |