Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-22-18 | Redskins +12 v. Titans | Top | 16-25 | Win | 100 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
10* Washington (4:30 ET): I admit that this is a bit of an "ugly" play, but I'm going to stick with my numbers here. The numbers say Tennessee is way overvalued here and that's likely due to the combination of the "must-win" nature of the game for them (to stay viable in the playoff hunt) and the fact the Redskins are starting third-string QB Josh Johnson. But Johnson did lead the 'Skins to a victory last week, 16-13 over the Jaguars, in his first NFL start in seven seasons. Also, just because Tennessee "must win" here, doesn't mean they will cover. Washington, believe it or not, is also still alive in the playoff hunt. Take the points. Tennessee is not built to cover a spread this large. They average only 19.1 PPG and while it was shutout win last week (17-0 over the Giants), we usually don't see them win by that kind of margin. The Titans have only been favored in 4 of 13 games this season. Three of those instances are the last three weeks! While they beat the Giants and Jags by a combined 47-9 margin the L2 wks, remember they were also "tooth and nail" w/ the Jets here at home three weeks ago. Five of their eight wins this season have been by four points or less. This figures to be a low-scoring game and that makes taking the points an attractive option. Obviously, the focus for the Redskins defense here will be stopping RB Derrick Henry, who ran over both the Giants and Jags. But consider that the number of rushing yards Henry has the L2 wks (408) accounts for nearly half his season total. Titans QB Marcus Mariota did not thrown a TD pass in either game. Johnson actually looked fairly competent for Washington LW, completing 16 of 25 passes in a come from behind effort to beat Jacksonville. The Redskins have a good defense that can keep them in this one. Meanwhile, Tennessee's defense just lost a key piece w/ CB Logan Ryan suffering a broken leg. The only time the Titans have been favored by more than a TD this year was the Jets game when they won by only four. Oddsmakers are making you pay a premium on them here. 10* Washington | |||||||
12-22-18 | William & Mary v. Virginia -21.5 | Top | 40-72 | Win | 100 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
8* Virginia (2:00 ET): Two more teams (Buffalo, Furman) fell from the ranks of the unbeaten last night, leaving just six left in the country. Counted among them is #5 Virginia, a team that has won 41 of its last 44 games overall. While it it going to take a LONG time to wash away the stench of that historic loss in LY's NCAA Tournament (first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16), the bottom line is that Tony Bennett's Cavaliers remain one of the premier teams in the country. William & Mary won't be any match for them this afternoon in Charlottesville. Lay the points. So far, the Hoos are 10-0 and outscoring teams by 21.1 PPG. That average margin of victory is basically what we're looking for here and we should get it (and then some) due to the combination of Virginia's own defense and W&M's lack of it. The Hoos are #1 in the country in scoring defense (as per usual), giving up just 51.3 points per game. They're even stingier here at home where they are allowing only 46.6 PPG! The only team to crack 60 against them so far was Maryland and that was a "true" road game. Four of their five visitors have not scored 50. William & Mary can score. They come in averaging 77.3 PPG. But that's also skewed due to games against lesser competition, like their last one against William Peace College where they scored 106. Note that the Tribe has faced one top 20 defense in efficiency this year (Old Dominion) and was held to 53 points on the road. This is very likely to be worse. Then you have the fact that William & Mary comes in allowing 81.3 PPG. So in addition to their usual brand of defense, UVA should score plenty Saturday afternoon, giving this the potential to be one of the bigger blowouts on today's card. 8* Virginia | |||||||
12-22-18 | Temple v. Drexel +10.5 | Top | 82-64 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
8* Drexel (1:00 ET): This battle of Philly schools may not be as lopsided as it appears. Temple, while 9-2 SU, has won a LOT of close games so far. Already, they have four wins by four points or less. Only three of their nine wins have come by a margin greater than eight points. While it's nice to have such wins "in the bag," it's also not sustainable and doesn't make for being a great favorite. Sure enough, the Owls are 1-6 ATS as chalk this season. Coming off B2B two-point victories (over UMass and Davidson), I see Temple as being ripe for an upset. Take the points here. Admittedly, Drexel has a couple bad losses this year (NJ Tech, MD-Baltimore County). They were also just blown out by 32 at UConn earlier in the week. But getting this game at home is going to be a big motivating factor for the Dragons, who also come in w/ revenge for a three-point loss to Temple last year. They easily covered the 16-point spot there as neither team shot the ball well. One thing that makes this Drexel team attractive as an underdog in they can score. They average more than 80 PPG on the season while shooting 39.2% from three-point range. That'll go a long way in keeping this one close. Now they did shoot only 3 of 16 from behind the arc against UConn. But remember that was on the road. The Dragons had scored at least 76 points in each of their four games previous to the loss to UConn. Unlike the Huskies, Temple really does not have the kind of elite offense that can blow teams out w/ regularity. The Owls needed OT to get by Davidson last Saturday, scoring the GW basket on a lucky turnover. That came on the heels of rallying back from being down 10 at the half to UMass. Really, the Owls should feel fortunate to have that 9-2 SU record as three of their last four wins have come by exactly two points. The underdog will keep this closer than expected. 8* Drexel | |||||||
12-21-18 | Buffalo v. Marquette -2.5 | Top | 85-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* Marquette (8:30 ET): I admit Buffalo got me earlier in the week (winning at Syracuse), but this is a pretty brutal spot for the still-undefeated Bulls, who are playing as a short road underdog for a second straight time. With Texas Tech losing last night (to Duke), only eight teams remain unbeaten in College Basketball. Sooner than later, all will fall at least once and for Buffalo, tonight is that time. Marquette is a stronger team than Syracuse, despite the oddsmakers suggesting otherwise, and they're a perfect 8-0 SU here at home. Lay the short number here as Buffalo takes its first loss of the year. Buffalo is a nice story, but I'll continue to maintain that they are nowhere even close to being a top 15 team in the country, which is where the pollsters have them. Now, this is an experienced group that did win a NCAA Tournament game (upset Arizona) last March. Nate Oats' team is expected to repeat as MAC Champions, but the Bulls have clearly surpassed expectations so far w/ a 7-1 ATS mark. I concede that they do own impressive road wins over West Virginia and Syracuse. But this four-game road trip that they're on (takes them through the New Year) figures to provide them their first loss as this is pretty clearly the most challenging spot of the three remaining games. Marquette has won six straight, a streak which includes wins over Louisville, Kansas State and Wisconsin. They too are in the Top 25 (currently 20th) following a 26-point over North Dakota their last time out, a blowout win which came in spite of 22 turnovers. The Golden Eagles only losses this year came at Indiana and to Kansas at a neutral setting. Their eight home wins have come by an average of 18.5 PPG (opponents shooting just 36.0%). Eventually, Buffalo has to lose and this figures to be the last time they are an underdog for awhile. 10* Marquette | |||||||
12-21-18 | Coastal Carolina +11.5 v. College of Charleston | Top | 71-73 | Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
8* Coastal Carolina (7:00 ET): Charleston comes into this game pretty red hot, as winners of seven straight. They are 10-2 SU overall, but I don't see them being worthy of this price range against this opponent tonight. Coastal Carolina might only be 6-5 SU, but they've taken only one DD loss on the year and it was by 11 to a Wofford team that is substantially better than Charleston. Other than that, the Chanticleers' other four losses have all been by six points or less. I look for them to take the favored Cougars down to the wire in this one, which should be tight from start to finish. This is also a revenge game for Coastal Carolina as they lost by two to Charleston at home last year. It was a dreadful shooting night for the Chanticleers last year, particularly from three-point range where they went 1 for 16. This year's edition is a pretty strong shooting team (46.7% overall) and especially from behind the three-point arc where they are nearly 39% for the season. So Charleston won't be able to count on the same poor shooting tonight. Coastal Carolina is off a nice 69-65 win over NC Central on Sunday (led by as many as 14) and has played plenty of "true" road games so far. In other words, they'll be ready for this one. College of Charleston is nowhere near the three-point shooting team that Coastal Carolina is, so that's a big edge for the underdog right there. In fact, Charleston is shooting below 30% from behind the arc at home this year. Coming off B2B road wins, one of them an upset of Virginia Commowealth, I think this sets up as a letdown game for the favorite tonight. The Cougars are coming off a commanding 83-58 win over Siena their last time out (where they shot 61.5% overall!), a performance they won't soon be repeating. Overall, the Cougars' recent shooting simply is not sustainable. Coastal Carolina is a perfect 3-0 ATS as a dog so far this year while Charleston is just 1-3 ATS at home. 8* Coastal Carolina | |||||||
12-21-18 | BYU v. Western Michigan +13 | Top | 49-18 | Loss | -113 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
8* Western Michigan (4:00 ET): The big story here is WMU lost its starting QB (Jon Wassnick) late in the regular season. They went 1-2 SU w/ backup Kaleb Eleby (true frosh) as the starter, but that one win came in the regular season finale, as 6.5-pt underdogs, against MAC Champ Northern Illinois. With all the added prep time that comes w/ a bowl game, I'm not worried at all about Eleby coming in as the starter as he's posted solid numbers (917 yds passing, 6 TDs and 64.5 completion percentage). The Broncos should be highly motivated here by being such big underdogs and I think the oddsmakers have overadjusted as BYU is a pretty mediocre team this year. Take the points. BYU experienced a much different finish to its regular season as it lost to rival Utah in the latest installment of the "Holy War." It was their eighth consecutive loss to the Utes and perhaps the most painful one yet. That's because the Cougars blew a 20-0 halftime lead in Salt Lake City. Despite that game taking place weeks ago, my guess is that BYU still isn't over what happened. So, emotionally, the two teams in this year's Idaho Potato Bowl come in w/ very different mindsets. Western Michigan is off a big upset that gave them plenty of confidence while BYU is off the most deflating loss possible. BYU also starts a true freshman at QB, so it's not like they enjoy tremendous experience at that position either. I simply can't envision them covering this double digit spread, which seems to be based on name recognition only. The Cougars did have that big win at Wisconsin early in the year, but otherwise did not perform well against bowl teams and finished the regular season just 6-6 SU. I just don't see them being worthy of laying double digits on a neutral field. While it's true they have plenty of experience playing on the blue turf (game is in Boise), none of that experience is good as they're 0-5 SU all-time here. Last year saw a 6-6 Western Michigan team get snubbed from playing in a bowl, so the players should be highly motivated Friday afternoon. 8* Western Michigan | |||||||
12-19-18 | Ohio -2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 30 h 3 m | Show |
10* Ohio (8:00 ET): San Diego State really hit the skids late in the season, losing four of its last five games and the lone win was a come from behind effort against a bad New Mexico team. This is simply not the same Aztecs team that we're used to seeing under HC Rocky Long. I played against them a couple of times down the stretch, once when they failed to cover at New Mexico (were -12.5) and then again the following week when they lost outright (as 24-pt favorites) at home to UNLV. The Aztecs' biggest problem is they simply don't score. Even when they put 30 on the board in the regular season finale vs. Hawaii, they still lost. For the year, they're averaging just 19.6 PPG away from home! They finished the year 7-5 SU, but 3-9 ATS. To me, they are one of the easiest fades this entire bowl season. I'll be laying the points here. Ohio was probably the best team in the MAC this year, even though they did not get a chance to play for a Conference Championship. This was also the case last season and the Bobcats went out and crushed UAB 41-6 in the Bahamas Bowl. Now they are in position to win B2B bowls for just the second time in program history, which woud be a nice treat for HC Frank Solich, who is now the oldest active coach in the country after the retirement of Kansas State's Bill Snyder. Unlike SDSU, the Bobcats can score. They average 41.2 PPG (10th in FBS) and are led by QB O'Rourke, who accounted for over 3,000 total yds (passing + rushing) and 35 touchdowns in the regular season. Ohio finished strong down the stretch. They come in having won five of six, scoring 49 or more pts in all five victories. The one loss, 30-28 at rival Miami, is what cost them the MAC East. Three of their four losses this year were by four points or less. After losing to Miami, the Bobcats then destroyed division champ Buffalo 52-17. Their strength of schedule was very comparable to San Diego State this season, so there's no edge there. I put little stock in the fact the Aztecs are 13-0-1 all-time against the MAC as Long has struggled in bowl games. Ohio is 6-2 ATS in its last eight games where the spread is three points or less (either way) and I like them to roll in the Frisco Bowl. 10* Ohio | |||||||
12-19-18 | Arkansas-Little Rock +15 v. Memphis | Top | 89-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
8* Ark-Little Rock (8:00 ET): Memphis is no longer the power that it once was under John Calipari. Really, it was a pretty fast decline under Coach Cal's understudy Josh Pastner, who would bolt for Georgia Tech. Tubby Smith replaced him an did a terrible job for two years. Famous alum Penny Hardaway is now in his first season at the helm and the Tigers are 5-5 SU, coming off an emotional loss to in-state rival Tennessee where they scored 92 points at home and still didn't even cover the spread. I believe they are "ripe for the picking" tonight and laying far too many points. Little Rock had a far easier time in its last games as they played Miles College and won easily, 67-47. That kind of opponent was a welcome sight for the Trojans, who had just experienced two back-breaking losses in a row. They blew a halftime lead at home to Bradley at home, then lost on a half-court heave to Central Arkansas, also at home. (That was actually their 2nd loss to Central Arkansas in two weeks). While the road has generally been unkind to Little Rock, they did cover here in Memphis last year in a similar price range, losing by only eight points. They are 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings w/ the Tigers. Memphis is not good defensively and their struggles extend way beyond giving up 102 pts to Tennessee on Saturday. They're allowing over 80 PPG on the season. The only two teams not to score at least 76 against them were Tennessee Tech and Canisius. Obviously when you are giving up that many points, it's pretty difficult to cover as double digit favorites. Speaking of that, the Tigers have not been DD favorites since the season opener, when they played Tennessee Tech, and they failed to cover in that spot. While Memphis played Saturday, Little Rock has been off for eight days, giving them a bit of an edge there. The Tigers' tempo, which often leads to them not getting the best shot offensively, will be their undoing here. 8* Ark Little Rock | |||||||
12-19-18 | Suns v. Celtics -11.5 | Top | 111-103 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
8* Boston (7:35 ET): While these teams definitely reside at opposite ends of the NBA spectrum, recent results have the favorite undervalued coming into this one. For the first time in more than a year, Phoenix comes in on a three-game win streak. They've beaten the Mavs, T'wolves and Knicks, the former two at home. They got the Knicks playing in the second half of a back to back. Here, it's a Boston team coming off a surprise loss in Detroit on Saturday. But before that, the Celtics had won and covered eight straight games. It's a big number tonight, but lay it. While the number is big, consider that the Celtics were 10-point favorites in Phoenix a little over a month ago. Now they didn't cover mind you, but they also shot just 40.2% on the road and still won by seven. They actually trailed the Suns by as many as 22 before rallying back and taking the game in overtime. Boston then made a hard-charge up my own personal power rankings w/ a series of blowout wins during the 8-0 SU/ATS streak. Five times they won by double digits. Most of the teams they blew out had losing records. No one has a worse record in the Western Conference than Phoenix, who is 7-22 SU for the season. The Suns do have their top two scorers back, Devin Booker and TJ Warren. Their absences were the reason the team hit the skids in late November, at one point losing 10 straight games. The team also just made a trade, shipping Trevor Ariza off and getting Kelly Oubre Jr in return. I don't think that will make much difference. Monday's win over the Knicks marked just the second time all year that Phoenix prevailed in a road game. Boston is outscoring teams by 11 PPG here at home. A giant gap exists between these two teams when it comes to defensive efficiency as the Celtics rank third in the league while the Suns are 27th. This should end up being a pretty sizable blowout. 8* Boston | |||||||
12-19-18 | Old Dominion v. Richmond +5.5 | Top | 63-54 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
10* Richmond (7:00 ET): This is a total letdown spot for Old Dominion, who comes in off an upset of Syracuse at the Carrier Dome this past weekend. The Monarchs were able to rally from a double digit deficit to win by six, outscoring the Orange by 16 in the 2H. ODU is definitely a hot team right now as they've won six straight (5-1 ATS) and they can certainly play some defense (top 20 in defensive efficiency). But I'm not sure I see them going on the road for a second time in five days and coming away w/ a "W." It's their first time playing B2B road games this year and they're favored in this one. Take the points. While it will be difficult for ODU to match its intensity from the last game, Richmond is likely be very motivated tonight, playing at home. First off, they are in off an embarrassing loss from over the weekend as they fell 59-52 here at home to Oral Roberts as 11-pt favorites. In the loss, the Spiders shot below 30% from the field. This after shooting 50% or better in three consecutive games. Adding to the Spiders' motivation here is the fact they have legit revenge from a 19-point loss to ODU last year down in Norfolk. They didn't shoot the ball particularly well there either. It should be a different story tonight. It was a season-low in pts scored (52) for Richmond on Saturday. This is a team that averages 72.2 PPG on 47.8% shooting. This does figure to be a pretty low-scoring game, but that favors the underdog. Old Dominion is just 1-6 ATS its last seven time as a road fave of 6.5 to 9 points. They are shooting just 41% for the year and are below 40% away from home while averaging just 61.2 PPG. Meanwhile, Richmond is 6-1 ATS as a home dog in that 6.5 to 9 point range. This is just a bad spot for ODU, especially to be laying points. 10* Richmond | |||||||
12-18-18 | Mavs v. Nuggets -5 | Top | 118-126 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Denver (9:05 ET): Coming into the year, the Nuggets were lauded as one of the deepest teams in the league. We're seeing that depth currently pay off. Despite being w/o three Opneing Night starters right now (Will Barton, Paul Milsap and Gary Harris), the team continues to win and has the best win percentage in the Western Conference (.690). They are 10-2 SU and ATS the L12 games, including B2B impressive wins over OKC and Toronto here at home. Tonight, they look to close out a four-game homestand w/ a perfect record as Dallas comes calling. Denver isn't laying nearly enough here. I thought the Mavs might improve this season and they have. But the improvement has been even more pronounced than expected (team's record is 15-13 SU) and a lot of that is owed to rookie Luka Doncic. However, Dallas has dropped B2B games and clearly isn't the same team on the road. While they sport a 12-3 SU home record, they're just 2-10 SU away from American Airlines Center. Their most recent road loss came last Thursday ... at Phoenix (scored only 89 pts). Their home record also took a hit over the weekend w/ a loss to Sacramento. The Mavs aren't exactly at full strength here either as they could be w/o two guards, Dennis Smith Jr and J.J. Barea. As has already been well-established, this team simply isn't very good on the road (outscored by 7.5 PPG) and the Pepsi Center here in Denver is one of the more challenging venues in the league for opposing teams. The Nuggets have some major revenge to exact on the Mavs when it comes to the pointspread as they were 0-4 ATS against them last season (did win both home games SU). Denver is 12-3 SU at home this year, outscoring opponents by double digits. 10* Denver | |||||||
12-18-18 | Buffalo v. Syracuse -3 | Top | 71-59 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
8* Syracuse (8:00 ET): Entering Tuesday, there are still nine unbeatens left in College Basketball. Eight of them are ranked (St. John's being the exception), but only five truly deserve to be. Those five would be: Virginia, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada & Texas Tech, all of whom I believe are top 10 teams in the country. Another unbeaten is Furman, who did beat Villanova, but should still be considered well below all the other remaining unbeatens. That leaves us two more to hit on, Houston and Buffalo, both of whom are in the Top 25, but don't deserve to be. We've got a chance to play against Buffalo here, on the road against a "name" program, at an extraordinary price. I'm laying the points here. Syracuse dropped from the Top 25 due to a loss to another strong mid-major (Old Dominion) on Saturday. The Orange were nine-point favorites and lost to the Monarchs 68-62 as they shot a woeful 33.3% from the floor. Losing to ODU here at the Carrier Dome is clearly "something that shouldn't happen," but it did and not to make excuses, but there is an important caveat. Like Syracuse, ODU ranks pretty high nationally in defensive efficiency. In fact, the Monarchs are top 20 in that category. Syracuse, who is #16 in the country in defensive efficiency itself, won't have to worry about that same kind of suffocating opponent here as Buffalo ranks 54th in def efficiency. Among the unbeatens, only St. John's and Furman are lower. Buffalo is a tremendous story at 10-0 and ranked #14 in the country. But there is simply no way that Nate Oats' team is one of the 15 best in the country. Their "best" wins came at West Virginia and on a neutral court vs. San Francisco. Both were narrow victories (by 5 pts or less) and neither opponent is as good as Syracuse. Note Syracuse led ODU by double digits on Saturday before a poor second half. Also note that Buffalo really struggled against a zone defense vs. Southern Illinois Saturday. The SIU zone caused Buffalo to lose a 19-pt lead. We know what kind of defense Syracuse plays (Hint: it's a 2-3 zone) and they've beaten Buffalo 18 straight times dating back to 1963. 8* Syracuse | |||||||
12-17-18 | Grizzlies +12 v. Warriors | Top | 93-110 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
8* Memphis (10:35 ET): Unlike the other two games in this package, I don't believe the underdog is the better team here, nor do I give them a great shot at pulling off an outright upset. However, the Grizzlies are getting way too many points here against Golden State, who has simply NOT been the same dominant team as they've been the last four seasons. On Friday night, the Warriors found themselves down in the fourth quarter at Sacramento before going on a 17-2 run to win the game by five points. Even on the road, the Grizzlies are worthy of more respect than what they're getting from the oddsmakers here. Take the points. One thing worth being concerned about here is that Memphis has been held under 100 pts for five consecutive games as well as seven of their last eight. That's almost unheard of in today's NBA. You just don't see too many teams scoring only 94.6 PPG over a five-game stretch anymore. But what we don't have to concern ourselves with here is the Grizzlies defense. They lead the Western Conference in points allowed (102.1 PPG) and have held 26 of their 29 opponents below their season scoring average. As for the offense, look for a bounce back tonight as Golden State has slipped tremendously on defense and gives up 111.1 PPG. Like most teams, the Grizzlies have struggled the past few years against the Warriors. They've lost 13 of the last 17 meetings, including a 117-101 loss here in Oakland last month. Golden State shot well in that game, but that may not be the case again here. They were 14-pt favorites in that last meeting and did cover, but needed a huge 34-15 third quarter advantage to do so. Memphis is due to start shooting the ball better and is good enough defensively to hang within the number here. 8* Memphis | |||||||
12-17-18 | Saints v. Panthers +7 | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
10* Carolina (8:20 ET): This is essentially a "do-or-die" spot for the Panthers. Not only in terms of their current playoff standing, but also w/ their poor history against the Saints. Carolina comes into Monday night having dropped five in a row. That's the longest losing skid in the league right now. If there is one silver lining, they've generally been losing close games. Their last four losses have all been by a TD or less (been favored in every game). But there's no sugarcoating the rivalry w/ the Saints, which has seen the Panthers fail to cover six of the last seven meetings. They say "it's hard to beat the same time THREE times in the same season," but don't tell that to Carolina as they lost three times to New Orleans last year. They did cover in the playoff loss after going 0-2 ATS in the regular season. I think everyone considers the Saints to be the best team in the league right now, or they at least ought to. They've got the best record (11-2 SU), the best point differential (+164) and are 10-3 vs. the number. But there have been some signs that their dominance has waned. Two weeks ago, they went to Dallas and played - easily - their worst game of the season, getting beat 13-10. Then last week saw them have to rally back from a 14-3 second half hole against Tampa Bay. Total yardage was basically even in that game and the key was a blocked punt that swung the game. It was the second straight week that the Saints' vaunted offense was held below 300 total yards. This is a tricky spot for New Orleans as they're playing on the road for a third straight week. The sense of urgency is no longer there for them w/ the Rams losing last night. That Rams loss gives the Saints a very good chance of earning homefield advantage in the NFC half of the playoff draw. Meanwhile, Carolina should come out very inspired here. They're a much better team at home (5-1 SU) and this is just the second time all year they'll be a home dog (1st was a 36-21 win over Baltimore). They also have triple revenge against the Saints. The underdog has cashed seven of the past eight times in this NFC South rivarly. The Panthers are also 3-0 ATS their L3x as a home dog. 10* Carolina | |||||||
12-17-18 | Kings +8 v. Wolves | Top | 105-132 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (8:05 ET): The Kings continue to be a surprise team as they won last night in Dallas, 120-113. That victory was no small feat. The Mavs had won their previous 11 home games. Sacramento is now three games above .500, something that no one foresaw for this point in the season. While tonight is the second game of a back to back, the oddsmakers sure are being generous considering the Kings just beat the T'wolves 141-130 last week. Dave Joeger's team has covered seven of its last eight games overall and is a very respectable 9-7 SU on the road. Take the points. The T'wolves are coming off an 0-4 road trip that included that aforementioned stop in Sacramento. The road has been unkind to this team so far as they're 2-12 SU this season. It's been a different story at home though where they have gone 11-4 SU. However, rarely is Minnesota this large of a favorite. They were 7.5-pt favorites on the road to Phoenix Sat night and lost that game outright. They were also three point favorites last week at Sacramento where they allowed 141 pts in regulation. I don't think a simple switch in venue is enough to overcome the swing in point differential that the oddsmakers seem to be calling for here. Minnesota has had lay eight or more at home two times previous to this and ended up 1-1 ATS. But those games came against Chicago and Cleveland. In its last three games, Sacramento has scored 141, 125 and 120 points. They are 4th in the league in points per game. On Friday, they led the Warriors by 10 points in the fourth quarter before succumbing to a better team. I'm not sure Minnesota is a better team that Sacramento as the T'wolves definitely have their issues defensively. They just allowed an average of nearly 120 PPG on the 0-4 road trip w/ opponents shooting 40% from three-point range. These teams are dead even in defensive efficiency rating, but the Kings are significantly higher on offense. 8* Sacramento | |||||||
12-17-18 | Jazz +5.5 v. Rockets | Top | 97-102 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
8* Utah (8:05 ET): Here's yet another game where I believe the road dog is the better team overall and not getting the proper amount of respect from the oddsmakers. We've all been waiting on Houston to "get it going" and while lately there have been signs that is taking place, I'm still not convinced that they're significantly better than Utah, even playing at home. The Jazz are another team off to a disappointing start as - like Houston - they currently sit outside the top eight in the Western Conference. The Jazz have also already beaten the Rockets - twice - this season. Take the points. Now Utah does come into tonight having dropped three of four, including a stop in Mexico City where they fell as six-point favorites to Orlando, by a score of 96-89. Houston, meanwhile, has won and covered three straight. But the Jazz were one-point favorites for each of the first two meetings w/ the Rockets, one of them here in H-town. Now the Rockets played that home game w/o the services of Chris Paul (was suspended) and James Harden left w/ an injury in the 4Q. But there was no such "excuse" when they lost out in Utah earlier this month as they were at full strength. In fact, Utah was w/o one of its top players, Rudy Gobert, who was ejected early in the convincing 118-91 victory. In the two wins this year, the Jazz have held the Rockets to an average of 90 points. They haven't been that prolific otherwise this season, but the defensive numbers should improve considering this team was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency last season. Houston continues to rely too much on Harden, who has had triple doubles in each of the last two games. In my eyes, this is a pretty even matchup w/ the Jazz being the slightly better team. The homecourt edge is being overvalued as the Rockets are just 7-5 SU here this season. 8* Utah | |||||||
12-17-18 | Suns v. Knicks -1 | Top | 128-110 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 8 m | Show |
10* New York (7:35 ET): For the first time in over a year, the Phoenix Suns have won B2B games. Both wins came at home. The first was against a Minnesota team that isn't very good on the road. Then they beat another team w/ a drastic home vs. road split, that being Dallas, on Saturday night. The Suns now have TJ Warren and Devin Booker back in the lineup. Their absences certainly played a role in the team losing 10 straight games from 11/25 to 12/11. But just because both are back doesn't mean the Suns should be getting this much respect on the road. I know the Knicks are banged up, but Phoenix is a league-worst 1-13 SU on the road and last produced a three-game win streak back in March of 2017. Lay the short number here. New York did play last night. They lost 110-99 to Indiana, a game where I played the Over. The Over wasn't a winning bet as the Knicks shot just 41.6% from the field. But it was a close game most of the way and still tied 81-81 w/ just under nine minutes remaining. It was down the stretch where the Knicks wilted. Though short-handed and only 2-8 SU the L10 games, this is one of the few matchups tailor-made for NY to win. They've played only 13 of their 31 games at home, so they should be happy to be back at MSG tonight. Again, Phoenix is only 1-13 SU on the road, getting outscored by almost 16 PPG. The Suns may be a little short-handed here as well. They finally were able to trade Trevor Ariza (following a comedy of errors) in a three-team deal that netted them Kelly Oubre Jr and Austin Rivers. But there's a good chance neither will play tonight. Even if one or both did, I wouldn't expect very much in the first game w/ a whole new set of teammates. I just think that the Suns being listed as a near pick 'em is pretty unfathomable, especially when you consider they're only 3-11 ATS on the road. After playing three consecutive road games, the Knicks are 2-0 ATS this year. 10* New York | |||||||
12-16-18 | Patriots v. Steelers +2.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 7 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): We all know the story here. New England has been a real nemesis for the Steelers through the year. The Patriots have won and covered the L5 meetings, which includes an AFC Championship Game (2016). All-time against Tom Brady, the Black & Gold are a horrible 2-11 SU and ATS. All but two of those games have come w/ Ben Roethlisberger at QB. Of course, the poor history vs. the Pats is only secondary to what's going on presently in Pittsburgh. After a 7-2-1 start, the Steelers have lost three in a row, putting their playoff status in precarious position. Another Big Ben nemesis, Oakland, stunned the Steelers last week. Roethlisberger was injured and missed most of the 2nd half, but did come back to lead a TD drive late. But the defense couldn't hold and Pittsburgh has still never won in Oakland during Big Ben's career. That followed a pair of frustrating, one-score losses to the Chargers (blew 23-7 halftime lead) and Broncos (had 527-308 edge in total yds, but were -4 in turnovers). Though the postseason is no longer guaranteed, this is still a good team. They average 34.5 PPG at home and IMO, still deserve to be favored here. New England is off its own stunning loss. Their came in the most improbable fashion possible as they gave up a multi-lateral TD on the final play at Miami last week. I'm sure you've seen it by this point. Laying a short number and off a SU loss, one can only assume the Patriots will be an attractive wager this week. But the reality of the matter is this team is only 3-4 SU on the road this year w/ losses to Jacksonville, Detroit, Tennessee and Miami. No doubt, head to head history played a role in where the oddsmakers set this line, but the Patriots are no longer what they once were. Putting pressure on Brady is key to beating him and the Steelers' D leads the league in sacks w/ 45. 8* Pittsburgh | |||||||
12-16-18 | Dolphins v. Vikings -6.5 | Top | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 87 h 43 m | Show |
10* Minnesota (1:00 ET): Fresh off the heels off a Monday night loss to Seattle, the Vikings decided to fire OC John DeFilippo. Anyone who watched the telecast probably wasn't surprised. The offense looked impotent as the announcers buried DeFilippo to no end. But truthfully, Minnesota didn't play nearly as poorly as the 21-7 final suggests. They actually had a slight edge in total yards in a game they trailed only 3-0 heading into the fourth quarter. When it was a 6-0 game, the Vikings had two chances to score, but were stopped on downs at the goal line, then later had a FG blocked in controversial fashion (Seattle's Bobby Wagner should have been called for "leaping.") To make matters worse, the Seahawks got a late defensive TD to ice the game. After the coordinator change, I expect the Vikings to respond well and deliver one of their best games of the year, at home, this week. Miami is 7-6 SU and anyone that has a TV knows how their game last week ended. Down 33-27 to the Patriots, they pulled off an all-time miracle on the final play of the game. My congrats to them for a season highlight worth celebrating. But here's the reality: the Dolphins are not a very good football team and extremely lucky to have a winning record. They've been outscored by 55 pts this year, a differential that's slightly worse than the Jaguars & Falcons, both of whom are 4-9 SU. This kind of overachieving has gone on throughout Adam Gase's tenure here. Over the last three seasons, Miami has been outscored by 184 points despite a 23-22 SU record. Every Dolphins win this year has been by eight points or less. Five of their six losses have come by double digits. The overachieving ends Sunday. Both teams desperately need to win here to stay in playoff hunt in their respective conferences. But Minnesota is at home, where they're 4-2 SU/ATS, including a perfect 3-0 as chalk in the -3.5 to -7 range. QB Kirk Cousins really is better than he's given credit for; he's just operating behind a questionable offensive line. With this line hovering around a TD, the Vikings are a great value (were -9.5 on the lookahead line). Not only did it take a miracle to win last week, but the previous week saw Miami outgained 415-175, yet come away w/ a 21-17 victory @ Buffalo when Bills QB Allen missed a wide open WR on the game's final play. What this play boils down to is my lack of respect for the Dolphins and their phony record. They've lost five in a row on the road. 10* Minnesota | |||||||
12-16-18 | Lions +3 v. Bills | Top | 13-14 | Win | 100 | 87 h 42 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
12-15-18 | LSU v. St. Mary's +3 | Top | 78-74 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 12 m | Show |
10* St. Mary's (11:00 PM ET): In addition to the wrong team being favored here, this is a horrendous spot for LSU to fly out to Vegas and play a red hot team. You may recall that earlier in the week I was on the Tigers as they went to Houston. They were underdogs against an unbeaten team and I took the points, giving them a great shot at pulling the outright upset. For most of the game, they looked to be the better team, building a lead as high as 15 early in the 2nd half. They still had a double digit lead w/ just under 15 mins to go. But that's when the wheels fell off and they ended up losing by six (covered by 1/2 pt). I don't like LSU at all in this quick turnaround. Especially when they're laying points to such a hot team. St. Mary's has won and covered four straight and should be the betting favorite here. All four wins have been by double digits, though against competition far weaker than what they'll see here. It's been a nice turnaround for the Gaels after losing four in a row, which I think is still weighing on the oddsmakers' minds here. Tuesday vs. CS-Fullerton, they led by 19 at halftime and never looked back. Jordan Ford scored all 19 of his pts in the 1st half and three other starters would join him in double figures. The Gaels shoot the ball very well (49.7 FG%) and that's going to mean trouble for a LSU side that really doesn't, especially away from Baton Rouge. The Tigers have won just 1 of 4 away from campus so far, including an outright loss as favorite to Oklahoma State last month. Three-point shooting, as if often is, may prove key in this contest. St. Mary's is shooting 39.1% from behind the arc so far this season. They are allowing just 29.6% shooting. With the way LSU struggles to shoot away from home, I wouldn't be too confident in them being able to "keep up" in this late night showdown. 10* St. Mary's | |||||||
12-15-18 | Browns v. Broncos -3 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -103 | 99 h 8 m | Show |
10* Denver (8:20 ET): The lookahead line for this Saturday night matchup was Denver laying six points. So last week's respective results certainly had a significant impact on the oddsmakers. Cleveland beat Carolina, 26-20, at home while Denver went out and lost to lowly San Francisco, 20-14 as three-point chalk. The oddsmakers are now saying these teams are basically even, giving Denver the token number for homefield advantage. But I still believe that a gap does exist between these two teams. Lest we forget that the Broncos had won and covered three straight before taking the "L" last week. They've been hit hard by some injuries, but should still be able to defeat a team that is just 1-26 SU its last 27 road games. Lay the short number here. Let us also not forget the last time Cleveland was off a win. They'd just beaten the Bengals (snapping a 25-game road losing streak) and headed to Houston where they were completely outclassed by the Texans in a 29-13 loss (shutout in the 1H). Last week saw the Browns bounce back, at home, over a slumping Carolina team. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield has brought alot of excitement to this downtrodden organization, but I can't help but think expectations are a little TOO high right now w/ actual talk of running the table and making the playoffs. It'll be interesting to see how Mayfield operates, on the road (and in primetime) against a defense that has allowed 22 pts or fewer in five straight games. The Browns' defense remains pretty poor as it ranks 31st in yards allowed. These teams have a history against one another that goes back to the late 1980's when they were the top two teams in the AFC. But that was long ago. Since returning to the league in 1999, the Browns are 0-7 SU vs. the Broncos. I think Denver's stock was a little too high going into last week's game vs. San Francisco, but now it's a "buy low" situation off the loss. This is a team that holds recent wins over both the Chargers and Steelers. Granted that was before losing CB Chris Harris and WR Emmanuel Sanders. Those injuries definitely played a role in losing to the 49ers, but I think the team was also overconfident heading into last week. That will no longer be the case here. The Broncos are still the better team here and getting a home game on a short week is always an advantage. 10* Denver | |||||||
12-15-18 | Rockets v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 105-97 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
10* Memphis (8:05 ET): Houston may have some again believing that a turnaround is forthcoming and Memphis is the second night of a back to back. But I feel the Grizzlies are still an outstanding value tonight as a home dog. Last night's 100-97 loss to Miami aside, the Grizz have been one of the league's top defensive teams this year. They've held 25 of 28 opponents below their season average in scoring and are second overall in points allowed. The Rockets aren't the same explosive team on offense that they were a season ago. Therefore, I'll take the points here. Memphis found itself slightly behind for most of the way last night against Miami. They simply did not shoot the ball very well, especially from three-point range where they were only 8 of 29. However, I suspect a nice bounce-back takes place tonight. The Grizzlies have shockingly been held under 100 pts in six of their last seven games, which you don't really see in this league anymore. But they shoot the ball well at home (46.5 FG%) where they are 9-5 SU and ATS. Houston is just 9-12 ATS as a favorite (10 outright losses) and 5-10 ATS on the road. They've lost six of their last seven road games straight up, even though James Harden has gone for 33 or more points four times in that stretch. Although these teams are division foes, it's been more than a year since they actually faced off. Memphis earned a season split LY, taking the first two matchups, which was before they fell apart (due to injuries) and Houston really took off. I mentioned earlier that Houston is not the same team offensively this year and they're down to 106.6 PPG on the road. If Memphis can hold them below their season average, which history suggests that they will, then I sense a very easy cover here. The Rockets have still allowed more points than they've scored this year, making them one of just five teams in the Western Conference that can say that. 10* Memphis | |||||||
12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State -4.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 236 h 21 m | Show |
10* Fresno State (3:30 ET): Even though Fresno State (#23) is ranked, I think that a lot of people are going to do a double take when they seem them favored here over a Pac 12 team w/ a "name" head coach, Herm Edwards' Arizona State Sun Devils. But the Bulldogs deserve to be favored here and I believe will handle their business. To me, they are the BEST non-P5 team in America. (Yes, I'm including UCF in that discussion). FSU went 11-2 SU in the regular season and plays tremendous defense. They allow just 13.7 points per game, which was tied w/ Clemson for the second fewest in the entire country. Though bowl games aren't typically noted for their defense, I believe this Bulldogs team has enough pride to pack its D for Vegas as it looks to win its 22nd game in the L2 seasons. Lay the short number. Herm Edwards proved all the critics wrong in his 1st season in Tempe. He led the Sun Devils to a 7-5 SU record and they were never blown out. All five losses were by 7 points or less, four of them coming exactly by a seven-point margin, plus they lost by only two at Oregon. But they also won four games by a field goal or less. Having played so many close games, you might think playing ASU as an underdog would be ideal. After all, they did go 5-2 ATS when taking points in the regular season. But playing this game w/o WR N'keal Harry (skipping it to prepare for the NFL Draft) is not only the harsh reality of College Football, but just plain problematic. Harry had 73 catches for 1,000+ yards and nine touchdowns this year. That's a ton of production that ASU simply won't be able to replace in this game and going against one of the top defenses in the country makes things even tougher. Fresno State has been one of the top ATS teams in the country the L2 seasons under Jeff Tedford, going 19-6-2 ATS overall. So having to lay such a short number w/ them is pretty nice. Yes, they're facing a Pac 12 school, but the Bulldogs just beat Boise State in the Mt West Champ Game (on the blue turf!) and won't be intimidated. This game is being played at MWC venue, the Sam Boyd Silver Bowl, home of UNLV. So that's another advantage for Fresno State. They won here just last month. Granted, it won't be as easy as 48-3 (destroyed UNLV), but it's still an edge. These teams had one common opponent during the regular season, San Diego State, and while Fresno State dominated the Aztecs (won 24-13), Arizona State lost to them 28-21. 10* Fresno State | |||||||
12-15-18 | Penn State v. NC State -3.5 | Top | 78-89 | Win | 100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
8* NC State (2:00 ET): Every week, when the new NCAAB rankings come out, I like to compare them to my own personal top 25. There's not as much discrepancy as you might think, but there's a always at least a couple teams not ranked by the pollsters that I think deserve to be. One such team is North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have started 8-1 this year, the only loss coming at Wisconsin (by just 4 pts) in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. Other than that, the competition hasn't exactly been fierce, but it's worth noting that NC State is outscoring teams by 26.9 PPG this year! This is a neutral site game w/ Penn State, another Big 10 team. The Wolfpack are obviously hoping for a better result than what they got in Madison. They should. Last year in Raleigh, they beat the Nittany Lions 85-78 as a three-point home dog. Both teams are better this season. Penn State is actually top 10 in the country in defensive efficiency right now (per KenPom), but really struggles shooting the ball sometimes. Not in the last game, mind you, when Rasir Bolton's career-high 27 pts led a 76-65 win over Colgate. The team shot 10 of 27 from three-point range as well. But the issue is that the Nittany Lions have shot just 40.7% from the field outside of Happy Valley this year, including a dreadful 29.5% from three-point range. NC State is 6th in the country in scoring and 14th in offensive efficiency. Defensively, they're not too shabby either, ranking 21st in points allowed. Again, I recognize they haven't taken on the toughest non-conference schedule, but that doesn't change the fact that this is a very good basketball team. They've scored 180 pts the L2 games and are 7-2 ATS overall. The only two times they failed to cover were as big favorites. The Wolfpack shoot the ball very well; better than 50% overall and better than 40% from three-point range. That's too much for Penn State to keep up with, so lay the short number. 8* NC State | |||||||
12-14-18 | Warriors v. Kings +8.5 | Top | 130-125 | Win | 100 | 21 h 21 m | Show |
8* Sacramento (10:05 ET): In an ultra-deep Western Conference, no one thought the Kings would be able to do much. Virtually all projections before the season had them and the Suns as the bottom two. But here we are in mid-December and they're right in the mix! Back to back wins have them at 15-12 SU and in eighth place in the Confererence. At the same time, Golden State no longer is the infalliable team of the last four years. They're still tied for first, but have already lost 10 times. This line is still based on preseason projections and not where each team is currently at. Take the points. Facing a Toronto team that was w/o Kwahi Leonard, the Warriors got embarrassed Wednesday night - at home - losing 113-93. I suspect this line is based on the expectation that it will be an angry Golden State team taking the floor tonight, looking to exact some revenge. But even w/ the team healthier than its been, I don't see it. They escaped w/ a one-point win over the Kings last month. Granted, there was no Steph Curry or Draymond Green. But Kevin Durant did go for 44 points in the game and the Dubs probably won't be getting that kind of individual performance tonight. Sacramento is 5-1 SU and ATS in December. Admittedly, that includes wins over Phoenix, Cleveland and Chicago, three of the four worst teams in the league. But they also just dropped 141 pts in regulation in their last game, shooting almost 59%, in a double digit win over Minnesota. The Kings are now 7-5 SU at home this year and 8-4 ATS as they've been a dog in every game. Yes, I'm with you in that this team is going to eventually fall off (won't make the playoffs). But they are better than they've been the last couple seasons and no longer a team that's going to get blown out regularly. 8* Sacramento | |||||||
12-14-18 | Green Bay +18.5 v. Creighton | Top | 65-86 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
10* Green Bay (9:00 ET): WI-Green Bay has been a covering machine this year. An underdog in all but one lined game, the Phoenix are 6-2 ATS on the year, 6-1 when in the underdog role. They've stepped up in class a couple times, playing the likes of Iowa and Oregon on the road, so they certainly shouldn't be intimidated by tonight's visit to Creighton. Outside of an ugly loss at Bowling Green last week, there's nothing to indicate the Phoenix can't hang w/ the heavily favored Blue Jays here. They average 87.2 PPG (13th in the country), so take the double digit spread. Creighton also isn't shy about scoring as they are averaging 83.6 PPG. But they do come in off B2B losses. Now those losses came against Gonzaga and Nebraska, two very good teams, one of them top five in the country. But w/ another more "high-profile" game (at Oklahoma) looming next week, I think it will be easy for the Blue Jays to overlook tonight's game, which is obviously dangerous when laying double digits. Creighton has not covered either time it was a DD favorite this year, winning those games by only 11 and 6 points and they were playing Western Illinois and East Tennessee State. Green Bay plays at one of the fastest tempos in the country (9th in possessions per game) and have scored 100+ pts in two of their last three games. Yes, one of those games was against a non-DI school, but the other came on the road against Belmont, a game where they were 7-pt underdogs. As for the oddsmakers, they are giving Creighton basically the same level of respect they gave Iowa and Oregon against the Phoenix. I don't think that's right. Creighton is highly suspect defensively as it ranks 301st in points allowed & is 128th in efficiency. They were just shredded by Nebraska for 94 pts after giving up 103 to Gonzaga. Giving up a lot of points here will obviously make it difficult to cover such a large spread. 10* Green Bay | |||||||
12-13-18 | Bulls v. Magic -4.5 | Top | 91-97 | Win | 100 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
8* Orlando (9:35 ET): In the writeup for the total, I didn't talk much about the fact this game is being played in Mexico City. While I think it's going to adversely affect both teams on the defensive end, look for the Magic to be less affected and ultimately pull out an easy win. Chicago is a complete mess right now w/ the Boylen situation and players threatening to boycott practice. Overall, the Bulls have dropped 13 of their last 15 games w/ one of the wins coming at home over Phoenix. This is easily one of the worst teams in the league and it's either them and it's hard to fathom taking them getting such a short number. I'll lay the points. Orlando has lost its last three games, the last two in blowout fashion. The streak began w/ a tough loss in overtime to Denver, at home. Maybe getting away to Mexico City is what this young team needed. As mentioned in the writeup on the total, the Magic weren't at full strength for the Dallas game and they shot the ball terribly. But, save for Jonathan Simmons, they're back to a full compliment of players here and should shoot the ball a lot better. Despite the three-game losing streak, the Magic are still in 8th place in the East. If they want to be a playoff team, then they need to win games like this. For the year, the Magic are 12-6 ATS vs. teams allowing at least 106 PPG. 8* Orlando | |||||||
12-13-18 | Chargers v. Chiefs -3 | Top | 29-28 | Loss | -126 | 54 h 6 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (8:20 ET): This one is for "all the marbles" in the AFC West. Well, perhaps that statement is a bit premature. After Thursday night, both the Chargers and Chiefs have two games to go. If Los Angeles were to win Thursday night, then they'd be tied w/ KC atop the division at 11-3 and we'd have to see how things play out. But if the Chiefs win here, they clinch the division as they'll have a two-game lead on the Bolts and own the tiebreaker. One of the major stories going into this showdown is how KC has absolutely OWNED the rivalry. Head to head, they've beaten the Chargers NINE consecutive times (last loss was 2013). The most recent win was Week 1, 38-28, as a 3-point dog. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS during that nine-game SU win streak. When the Chiefs beat the Chargers back in Week 1, little did any of us know the kind of trans-formative season that QB Patrick Mahomes was set to have. Mahomes is rewriting the record books, becoming just the third 1st or 2nd year QB to throw for over 4,000 yds and 40 TD passes in the same season. Dan Marino and Kurt Warner are the two others. Mahomes, now the betting favorite to win NFL MVP, has thrown for 4,300 yds and 43 touchdowns. Both Marino and Warner made it to the Super Bowl in their 4000+ yard, 40+ TD seasons. Under Mahomes direction, the Chiefs have the top offense in the league, averaging 36.2 PPG. They are unbeaten at home and getting this game on a short week is a huge advantage. You might recall that I played against KC last week as they squeaked by Baltimore, 27-24 in overtime. I was a winner as the Ravens were +7. Why the quick switch to the Chiefs, especially in light of how critical I was of their defense in last week's analysis? Well, I don't think LA is going to be able to replicate the kind of pressure Baltimore's top ranked defense got on Mahomes. Also, the Chargers have a major injury concern at RB w/ Melvin Gordon and possibly Austin Eckler both out. Without Gordon, they were able to beat both the Steelers and Bengals. But remember they were down 23-7 at the half in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati is a bad team they only beat by five points. While I'm a fan of what the Chargers have done this season, they've really beaten up on a lot of bad teams. They are just 3-7 SU the L10 times they've been an underdog of a field goal or more. 10* Kansas City | |||||||
12-12-18 | LSU +6 v. Houston | Top | 76-82 | Push | 0 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
8* LSU (9:00 ET): Nine teams are still unbeaten in College Basketball and you can predictably find most of them in the latest Top 25 poll. Even a schools as small as Furman finds itself at #23 in the AP due to the "0" in the loss column. But, make no mistake about it, not all of these unbeatens SHOULD be in the Top 25. Take Houston, for example. The Cougars are 8-0 SU, but I don't believe they're one of the 25 best teams in the country. LSU has been a real "problem opponent" for them the L2 years and I would not be surprised to see the Tigers end UH's unbeaten run for a second time in the last three seasons. Take the points. Each of the last two years have seen Houston go down to Baton Rouge and suffer an outright loss to LSU as favorites. Two years ago, the Cougars were 5-0 SU and laying 4.5 points. They lost 84-65. Last season, they were 8-2 SU and 2.5-pt favorites as they paid a visit. They lost 80-77. This time, they're hoping the "third time is the charm" at home. Houston does have a few nice wins this year. They beat Oregon here at home, plus they went to BYU and Oklahoma State and prevailed. That OK State win came over the weekend as they held the Pokes to 35.1% shooting in a 63-53 win. They shot 12 of 34 from three-point range themselves. LSU is playing its first "true" road game here. They lost - by 13 - to Oklahoma State on a neutral floor. So between that, UH being at home and still unbeaten, it's easy to see why LSU is the underdog here. But the Bayou Bengals have four players averaging double figures and leading rebounder Emmitt Williams is expected back tonight after he missed the 91-50 beatdown of Incarnate Word on Sunday. This team is averaging an impressive 82.1 PPG on 49.7% shooting. So they're very attractive in the underdog role, which they're in for only the second time this year. They covered the first - as 3.5-pt dogs - vs. Florida State. 8* LSU | |||||||
12-12-18 | Portland State +17 v. BYU | Top | 66-85 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
8* Portland State (9:00 ET): Portland State just got done beating Portland Bible College (really!) and Portland U. I suppose they ran out of teams within the city limits to beat so they'll venture to Provo Wednesday to meet a BYU team that has been taking care of business in its own state. The Cougars hold wins over both Utah State and Utah in the last week, a nice recovery from a three-game slide. It was a really nice win Saturday over the rival Utes, but I look at this matchup as a letdown spot for BYU. It certainly isn't a great situation to be laying this many points. I'll admit that Portland State's numbers are a bit skewed due to three huge wins over non-board teams. They beat Portland Bible College 123-40, outscoring them 65-18 in the 1st half. Last Thursday's game vs. Portland was obviously a much bigger test and it was one that the Vikings passed w/ "flying colors." They led the Pilots by as many as 19 in the 2H and improved to 4-0 SU at home. This will be just their second "true" road game of the season, the first being a 12-point loss at Stanford. The Vikings have covered 15 of their last 20 non-conference games. Two of BYU's four losses have come against teams that are still unbeaten, Nevada & Houston. But they've also lost to Illinois State and Weber State, games in which they were favored to win. They gave up 92 and 113 points respectively in those two losses. One did go to overtime, but it's not the one you think as the Cougars really did give up 113 pts in regulation to Weber State. They lost despite shooting 59.4% from the floor as they gave up 66 2nd half points. That's not necessarily indicative of how BYU plays defense; they just held Utah to 59 pts, for example. But I look for them to give up enough tonight that it costs them the cover. 8* Portland State | |||||||
12-12-18 | Knicks v. Cavs +2 | Top | 106-113 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:05 ET): For the second time in eight years, the Cavs are having a really tough time in a post-LeBron world. Things aren't quite as bad now as they got in 2010, but still. The team's record is 6-21 SU and they are definitely one of the four worst (but not THE worst) teams in the league right now. Injuries have played a role w/ Kevin Love missing a ton of time and now Tristan Thompson, the other frontcourt stalwart from the four Finals teams, may miss up to a month as well. But despite all that, I still believe Cleveland deserves to be a slight favorite on its home court vs. a New York team I'd also rank in my bottom five. The Knicks have many of the same issues the Cavs do and have lost four straight, also going 0-4 ATS. Take the points here. New York has lost six of seven overall, the one win coming in overtime against Milwaukee of all opponents. This is a team that does very little well and the good news here for Cleveland is that the Knicks are one of the few teams as defensively inept as they are. Cleveland is 30th (i.e. last) in defensive efficiency. But the Knicks are 28th and have given up an average of 120.6 points the L5 games. This obviously has the potential to be a really high-scoring game and I simply wouldn't trust NY as a road favorite, a role which they've been in only one other time all year (at Atlanta). The Knicks are just 4-11 SU in all road games, losing by an average of nearly 10 PPG. Four of the Cavs' six wins this year have come here at home. They won here at the Quicken Loans Arena on Saturday, beating another bad team (the Wizards) 116-101 as 7.5-pt dog. Rookie Collin Sexton had a career-best 29 pts in that game, but unfortunately followed it up w/ a bad shooting night against Milwaukee, a game the Cavs lost 108-92. Expect Sexton and the Cavs to shoot a whole lot better tonight and there's no reason to believe they can't beat the Knicks (who are also w/o their best player, Kristaps Porzingis) at home. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
12-12-18 | Columbia +15.5 v. Boston College | Top | 73-82 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
10* Columbia (7:00 ET): Columbia got off to a terrible start to the year, losing six of its first seven games. But the Lions have kept a busy schedule here in December and won their last two games, the most recent one being a minor upset of Iona at MSG on Sunday. Now they're set to play a string of road games that will take them through the New Year. Up first is a venture to Chesnut Hill to face Boston College. B.C. has certainly had a tumultuous last week or so. It began w/ an overtime loss, 100-95, to Providence last Tuesday. Then, last weekend's game vs. Texas A&M was cancelled due to mechanical issues w/ the Eagles' plane. Now they have to lay a big number. It's not a good spot and I'll be taking the points in this matchup. While B.C. is 6-2 SU, they've hardly taken on a challenging schedule. In fact, they've yet to even play a "true" road game. Their "best" win came in the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge over Minnesota. However, they've hardly been blowing teams out. Since opening the season w/ a 20-pt win over Milwaukee, they've yet to win another game by more than 15 pts. That's key considering the number here. And an outright loss wouldn't be unprecedented considering the Eagles did lose to IUPUI as 16-pt chalk last month. Against Providence, they didn't shoot the ball well, but the bigger problem was giving up 87 pts in regulation. Leading scorer Ky Bowman has been in a slump, shooting less than 37% from the floor in three straight games. Columbia was able to defeat Iona despite not having its leading scorer Mike Smith. It appears as if he will suit up on Wednesday. Note that this is a revenge game for the Lions as they lost here LY, 81-66. That was despite attempting only TWO free throws the entire game! Something else to consider here is that Columbia's record could easily be a whole lot better. They have suffered three losses by a total of 4 pts (all by 2 pts or less). They have yet to lose any game by more than 11 points. So just like B.C. really hasn't been blown out, Columbia really hasn't been blown out. 10* Columbia | |||||||
12-11-18 | Blazers +6.5 v. Rockets | Top | 103-111 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
10* Portland (8:05 ET): Houston continues to be vastly overrated in the marketplace. It's easy to understand why. They won 65 games last year and it was them, not the Warriors, who went into the playoffs as the #1 seed in the Western Conference. They even took the Warriors to a deciding 7th game in the WCF and even had a big lead w/o Chris Paul. But something is very different this year. While Paul and James Harden are still here, much of the supporting cast has been stripped away. What's left is a below .500 club that is second from the bottom in the Conference and they might as well be "last" considering that Phoenix is the one team below them. The Rockets simply should NOT be favored by this many over a Portland team that is just plain better than them. Take the points. Truthfully, neither of these teams has played very well of late. While Houston is just 2-7 SU and ATS in its last nine games, Portland went through its own ATS "dry spell," failing to cover in eight straight games at one point. But they've recovered somewhat w/ B2B wins at home, both of which saw them cover the spread easily. The first was against lowly Phoenix, a game which the Blazers got out to a 36-9 lead. Then came a 113-105 win over Minnesota on Saturday. CJ McCollum is now back in the lineup, so Portland is at full strength here. They've already won here in Houston once this year, doing so by a score of 105-84 back on October 30th. Admittedly, James Harden did not play in that game. When the Rockets won five in a row heading into Thanksgiving, it looked as if they'd righted the ship and the early season struggles had passed. But, now they've gone just 2-7 SU and ATS the L9 games and it's pretty clear that there are some significant issues w/ this team. They've never been known for defense, but last year saw them finish the regular season ranked 6th in efficiency. This year, they're down all the way to 25th. Defensive rebounding is another issue as they're 29th in that category. Chris Paul is shooting only 43.1% from the floor, his lowest percentage since he was a rookie. And the team's bench is last in the league in scoring. Overall, it's just not hard to see why this team is 7-12 ATS as a favorite this season w/ 10 outright losses. 10* Portland | |||||||
12-11-18 | Villanova v. Pennsylvania +7 | Top | 75-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
8* Pennsylvania (7:00 ET): Two of Philly's Big 5 meet up Tuesday night at The Palestra. Both Villanova and Penn are 8-2. Villanova is the defending National Champions, yet this season got off to a bit of a dicey start. They were 2-2 after suffering B2B embarrassing losses to Michigan and Furman (both at home). Losing to Michigan isn't that embarrassing, but losing by 27 certainly was. The Wildcats were 16-pt favorites agianst Furman. However, six wins later (the last three all coming against the other Philly area rivals) and Nova is back in the top 25. They deserve to be, but this won't be an easy game against Penn. I'm taking the points. Villanova is obviously Philly's finest, but a case can be made that Penn is #2. The Quakers have won four in a row, including an 89-75 victory in this gym over Miami FL. So they certainly won't be intimidated. They too are off a win over a city rival, in their case a bad LaSalle team, whom they defeated 83-65 as 5.5-pt chalk. Note Nova was a 17-pt fave @ LaSalle, yet only won by seven. That was their only other "true" road game as well. Subsequent wins over Temple and St. Joe's (at home) have made it 25 straight Big 5 victories. This team is now 29-14 ATS its last 43 games overall. But I stand by my earlier assertion that this will not be an easy game for the favored Wildcats. Early in the year, Penn lost Ryan Betley, a 3-pt specialist and all-Ivy League Player. But the team hasn't missed a beat. Freshman Michael Wang has picked up the slack, shooting a ridiculous 57.4% from the field. Penn is a very good shooting team overall, making nearly 50% of its shots, including almost 40% from three-point range. That will go a long way when taking points. The Quakers are 4-0 at home, averaging a ridiculous 96 PPG on 56.3% shooting. Obviously, they won't approach those numbers tonight, but they should still score enough to cover. Villanova did not shoot well in its last game (37.5%). 8* Pennsylvania | |||||||
12-10-18 | Clippers v. Suns +11 | Top | 123-119 | Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
8* Phoenix (9:05 ET): The Suns have been beyond atrocious recently, but that has a lot to do w/ the fact they've been without their top two scorers, TJ Warren and Devin Bookier. Warren is expected back tonight and while there's no disputing just how ugly it's been in Phoenix this year, I think the team is more than capable of staying inside a double digit number at home. The Clippers, are one of the bigger surprises in the league so far, but they've been held 100 pts in B2B losses. They just lost as 9.5-pt home favorites to Miami and are only 7-7 SU on the road. The Suns are off to the worst start in franchise history at 4-22 SU. They've lost eight in a row, also going 0-8 ATS. Their last loss was also at home to Miami, although they were 8.5-pt dogs and the final score was 115-98. Still, I can't harp enough on the fact that they've been down their top two scorers. Warren will only play limited minutes tonight, but his 17.2 PPG scoring average will be welcomed. I just have to think that this team is due to - at the very worst - play a close game tonight. The Clippers beat the Suns at home a couple weeks ago, 115-99. But it was a tie game at halftime. That also happens to be the last time both Warren and Booker suited up for the Suns. I realize that this is a team with very little going for it right now, but they're still a group of professionals w/ some pride. Losing a seventh straight time by double digits is almost unheard of, even for the worst teams in this league. I just have the feeling that the oddsmakers are being a little bit too generous in this one. 8* Phoenix | |||||||
12-10-18 | Magic +4.5 v. Mavs | Top | 76-101 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
8* Orlando (8:35 ET): Dallas has won 9 in a row at home and their last win here was special for me as it was a *10* Top Division Play that saw them upset Houston. Overall, the Mavs have won 11 of their last 13 games as they look to be one of the more improved teams in the league this year. But as good as they've been at home so far, they're a team that still isn't favored all that often. Tonight will mark just the 4th time they've been favored to win a game by more than three points. Likely w/o starting PG Dennis Smith Jr for a third straight game, I see them as a ripe for a letdown tonight. Orlando is also improved this year, though you wouldn't know it from the result of their last game. They lost by 22 at home to Indiana, who was w/o Victor Oladipo. It was the Magic's second straight loss as Denver also beat them at home last Wednesday. But prior to those consecutive setbacks, the Magic were on a real roll at the betting window, covering 11 of 13 games. They are 9-2 ATS on the road this year and 13-7 ATS overall when taking points. Leading scorer Nikola Vucevic is going to play despite suffering an ankle injury in the game vs. Indiana Friday night. The Magic are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS this season when coming off B2B losses. As well as the Mavericks have played at home this year, I simply do not like them laying this many points. The Magic have actually played significantly better defense on the road than at home. They are allowing just 104.7 PPG as a visitor as opposed to 111.1 PPG at home. I just see this as a game where is Dallas is likely to have a letdown. 8* Orlando | |||||||
12-10-18 | Pistons +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 102-116 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
8* Detroit (7:05 ET): The Pistons are 0-4 SU/ATS their L4 games, including a loss at home last night to New Orleans. Their rotation is rather thin due to injuries, so few will give them a chance this evening against a Philadelphia team that is 13-1 SU at home (only loss is to Cleveland!). Plus, the Sixers just beat them in Detroit, 117-111 Friday night. While the Pistons had to play last night, Philly hasn't had to play since. But I believe the Pistons will keep this one close, even having a chance at possibly stealing the game outright! Take the points. In that game Friday night in the Motor City, the Pistons were 2.5-point favorites. They lost, so there has to be some adjustment by the oddsmakers, but they've shifted their respective views of the teams too far, in my opinion. Granted, the Sixers won that last meeting despite Joel Embiid not even suiting up. But they actually trailed by 12 at halftime. The Pistons wound up having an off-shooting night at 41.6% from the field and they missed 28 of 35 three-point attempts. This is a better team than what they've shown the L4 games. They're also 2-0 ATS when playing the second night of a back to back this year. Philadelphia is 0-3 ATS when its off a SU win as a dog this season. Having just beaten the Pistons w/o Embiid, I can see them being overconfident coming into tonight. This is actually the 4th time these teams have met this season. Detroit took the first meeting, 133-132, in overtime. But they not only lost Friday, but here in Philly last month by 10 points. Still, I expect a focus effort from the road dog tonight. This is a team desperate for a win and they're not about to get blown out. Seven of Philadelphia's previous nine wins have come by single digits. 8* Detroit | |||||||
12-09-18 | Montana State v. Washington State -11 | Top | 95-90 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* Washington State (7:00 ET): This should be an extremely easy game for Wazzu at home. Both of the Cougars losses this year have been on the road. Here in Pullman, they're already 5-0 SU and averaging 89.2 PPG. They've covered the spread in all five games as well. Now the competition hasn't exactly been the stingiest, but it's not like we should expect much here from a bad Montana State side that has won only two games so far. The Bobcats have had to play most of their games on the road so far and are 0-5 SU outside of Bozeman, losing by an average of almost 23 PPG. I'll lay the points here. In its last game, Washington State won by 20 over Idaho. They were laying a similar number to what they are here and scored 90 points. They've now scored at least 80 in every home game. That kind of offensive prowess is going to put a lot of pressure on Montana State here as the Bobcats have topped 70 in only one road game so far (at Colorado State) and were held to just 35 by Indiana. A big key here (as it usually is) will be shooting from behind the arc. Wazzu is taking nearly 30 three-point shots per game, which is top 10 in the country. That high volume is going to be problematic for their opponent tonight, who often struggles to defend the 3-pt line. Montana State has not played in 11 days, so don't be surprised if they come out rusty. Furthermore, they're off a rare win as well. They beat North Dakota in a close game, one that saw them rally back from a halftime deficit. The 81-76 win marked MSU's second fewest points allowed in a game this season, which is kind of frightening. The only opponent to score less against them was Presentation College, a NAIA school who went for 68. The Bobcats are allowing 84.1 PPG, which is bottom 15 in the country right now. I don't think the long layoff is going to be a benefit, rather it's more likely to be a hindrance. Washington State has covered 10 of its last 11 games against teams allowing 77 or more points per game. 10* Washington State | |||||||
12-09-18 | Ravens +7 v. Chiefs | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 90 h 53 m | Show |
10* Baltimore (1:00 ET): While all the talk in Baltimore right now centers around the QB position, the Ravens have a significant edge defensively in this matchup and that will be what carries them this week in Kansas City. Currently, the Ravens stop unit is #1 in the league in both scoring and total defense, giving up just 17.8 points and 281.7 yards per game. That makes them extremely attractive to me as an underdog, especially one of this size. Compare those defensive numbers to Kansas City, who 31st in yards allowed (417.0 per game) and 27th in points allowed (27.3). I feel the road dog easily stays within the number here and I give them a great shot at the outright upset. Now the Chiefs do have the league's top scoring offense (ridiculous 37.0 PPG) and are #3 in yards (437.2). But they did give up 33 points to a hideous Raiders team last week (ATS win for me!). That's an Oakland offense that averages only 18.3 PPG. The Chiefs' defensive numbers have been significantly better at home, but that's because they've also drawn some of the weaker opponents on the schedule here. It also remains to be seen how this offense performs w/o RB Kareem Hunt. You know the story there. Hunt's services certainly weren't needed to get by the lowly Raiders. But the ferocious Ravens defense will be a different story altogether. Baltimore is 3-0 since Lamar Jackson took over as the starting QB for an injured Joe Flacco. To me, it would be crazy to go back to Flacco. The offense has been able to run the ball far more effectively w/ Jackson in the game (239 YPG) due to Jackson being a threat to run himself (265 yds). The Ravens do have a greater sense of urgency than the Chiefs, whose inclusion in the playoffs is all but assured at this point. Baltimore is fighting for its playoff life, trying to get in either as a Wild Card or the AFC North winner. Only two offenses have topped 24 points against the Ravens defense this year. In his three starts so far, Jackson has benefited from that defense allowing an average of just 211 YPG. They'll keep this one close. 10* Baltimore | |||||||
12-09-18 | Falcons +6 v. Packers | Top | 20-34 | Loss | -120 | 90 h 53 m | Show |
10* Atlanta (1:00 ET): Green Bay is a total mess right now. They've lost five of their six last games, including at home to Arizona last week, which cost Mike McCarthy his job. I think the notion that they'll receive some sort of "boost" in the wake of the firing of their head coach is "wishful thinking" on the part of the Cheeseheads. Of course, the Falcons have been every bit as disappointing as the Packers this year as they're 4-8 SU (GB is 4-7-1) and have lost four in a row (also 0-4 ATS). But they at least have a stable coaching staff, plus they're getting nearly a touchdown this week at Lambeau Field. I had this line closer to a field goal. Take the points. Now four of Green Bay's last five losses have come by seven points or less. It would be unfair to pin the whole demise on McCarthy, but it was probably time for him to go, especially if he wasn't getting along w/ Aaron Rodgers. Joe Philbin takes over on an interim basis. You may remember him from the non-descript job he did in three-plus seasons as the HC down in Miami. (He had previously served as OC in GB during the Super Bowl season). Philbin is a lame-duck coach as the Packers are simply playing out the string. Despite having Rodgers, this team simply isn't very good. The offense has only managed 17 pts in B2B games and the defense has totally fallen off a cliff. It's a somewhat similar story w/ the Falcons, who haven't even scored 20 points in a game since Week 9 when they were coming out of their bye. Last week was a new low as they were held to 131 total yards - at home - in a 26-16 loss to Baltimore. Now it should be pointed out that the Ravens have the #1 defense in football. So it should be easier sledding for Matt Ryan and company this week, even though they are on the road. Pretty clearly, there's enough disappointment to go around in this matchup, but I just don't see the Packers as being seven points better than the Falcons right now, even at home. 10* Atlanta | |||||||
12-09-18 | Saints v. Bucs +9.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -125 | 74 h 19 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): Here's the other game where I was a winner in the first meeting. Like Colts-Texans, boy, has a lot changed since then. In this case, New Orleans was a 10-pt favorite at home against Tampa Bay. That doesn't sound out of the ordinary, but the fact that the Bucs won 48-40 sure was shocking at the time. It's even more shocking in retrospect considering the kind of season the Saints have had. They didn't lose again until last week, another time I happened to play against them. Obviously, with the revenge angle in full effect, the Saints are going to be a popular choice this week. But for a second time this season, they are overvalued against the Bucs. Take the points. Not only did the Saints win 10 in a row after losing to the Bucs, they were a covering machine too. A nine-game ATS win streak was also snapped last week in Dallas. The Cowboys' defense shockingly shut down Drew Brees and company to the tune of just 10 points and 176 total yards. That was easily a season-low in total yardage, but also the fewest points scored by the Saints in any game in three years. Now they're going up against a significantly worse defense here in Tampa. But they'll have to contend w/ an offense that has the ability to trade points w/ them. This is also another road game and outdoors to boot. The Bucs, not the Saints or Chiefs, lead the league in total yardage. Now some of that has to do w/ always being in shootouts because of the defense. But whether its been Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston at QB, this offense has moved the ball. It was Fitzpatrick at the helm in the Week 1 upset of the Saints, but Winston hardly represents a downrgrade from the ultimately turnover-prone Fitzpatrick. Winston has guided the team to wins the L2 weeks, over the 49ers and Panthers, both here at home. The defense also showed up in both wins, giving up just 26 points total. Will they possibly give up that many (or more) in this game? There's a good chance. But the Bucs are getting a lot of points at home and I'll take 'em. Something I mentioned in last week's analysis is that the Saints had not been favored by more than a TD on the road since 2013 (didn't cover). Now it's happening in B2B weeks. Tampa Bay has not been a home dog of a TD or more since 2014. 8* Tampa Bay | |||||||
12-09-18 | Jets +3.5 v. Bills | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 74 h 19 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): The Jets are a better team than Buffalo. That may not be saying much, but it's true. I know the Flyboys have one fewer win than the Bills (3 vs. 4) and were destroyed 41-10 at home by the Bills just a few weeks ago. However, despite the respective records and the destruction that occurred in the first meeting, the Jets still have a far better YTD point differential (-64 vs. -115). In fact, the Bills have the third worst point differential in all of football. For that first meeting, the Jets were seven-point favorites. Now they're getting about a field goal. I know it was a blowout, but the line shift has been too significant. Take the points. This is the first time Buffalo will be favored this year. Every other team in the league has been favored at least twice. You've got a Bills' offense averaging an AFC-low 14.8 PPG. Expect them to win by a comfortable margin - against anyone - seems to be wishful thinking from my vantage point. I realize that they've played a little bit better of late. But they're coming in off a crushing defeat LW in Miami where rookie QB Josh Allen failed to hit a wide open receiver (who was in the end zone) on the final play. I still have serious doubts about Allen as a potential leader of this franchise. Also, might the recent uptick in performance lead to a - gasp - sense of overconfidence w/ the Bills (along w/ being favored for the first time). The Jets are also off a crushing loss, theirs coming at Tennessee. They led 16-0, but lost 26-22, giving up the GW TD in the final minute of a game they'd never trailed in previously. It was their sixth loss in a row overall and HC Todd Bowles is definitely coaching for his job at this point. It looks like rookie QB Sam Darnold will return this week, which is good. Josh McCown just didn't have it anymore. The Jets have lost 7 out of the last 10 meetings vs. the Bills, so the players and coaching staff should be out for revenge. I just don't think I could ever endorse Buffalo as a favorite. 8* NY Jets | |||||||
12-08-18 | San Diego State -4 v. California | Top | 83-89 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 40 m | Show |
8* San Diego State (10:30 ET): Both teams are off a loss here. San Diego State's was more shocking as they fell as six-point favorites to San Diego. Cal's loss also occurred at home, but they were seven-point dogs to a good San Francisco team. I don't know if the Bears are thinking about switching conferences (only kidding!), but they've actually taken on three straight West Coast Conference teams. While they did beat a bad Santa Clara squad, the Bears not only lost to USF, but at St. Mary's as well. Of course, the team SDSU just lost to also hails from the WCC. While it may seem like a relatively even matchup Sat night, I still believe the Aztecs have a significant edge and thus I'll lay the short number. These schools have met each of the last two seasons, right around this time of year. It was a neutral site game that San Diego State won back in 2016, 77-65 as 6.5-pt underdogs. Last year, Cal won on the road, 63-62 as 16.5-pt dogs. So it's a big revenge game for the Aztecs. Lucky for them, Cal has won just two of its eight games this season w/ five of those losses coming by double digits. It's a real bad scene in Berkeley right now as both wins came against teams outside my top 200. This team does not defend well as they've given up at least 76 points in all six losses. I mentioned earlier that SDSU suffered an outright loss in their last game, to San Diego. Looking at the second half of that game, it's pretty stunning how the Aztecs fell apart. They led by seven at halftime, but were outscored 47-28 in the second half. That kind of defensive collapse just doesn't happen w/ this team very often as opponents are shooting less than 40% against the Aztecs for the season. Fortunately, SDSU is not only 26-9-4 ATS off an ATS loss, but also 5-1 ATS off their previous six SU losses. This year has already seen them respond from a couple blowout losses (to Duke and Iowa State) w/ nice wins and covers over Xavier and Jackson State. Make no mistake about it, the Aztecs are the significantly better team here. 8* San Diego State | |||||||
12-08-18 | Rockets v. Mavs +3 | Top | 104-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
10* Dallas (6:05 ET): At this point, I think it's safe to say "Houston, we have a problem" as the Rockets continue to struggle at the outset of the 2018-19 season. Thursday's 27-point loss in Utah marked not only the second straight game where the team failed to score 100 points, but it was also their sixth loss in the last eight games overall. They've been even worse at the pay window recently, going 2-7 ATS their L9. Tonight, they're matched up w/ a Dallas team that has been absolutely sensational at home this year (10-2 SU AND ATS), yet still laying points. I'll go w/ the Mavs as home underdogs in this one as they recently beat the Rockets - in Houston - by 20 pts. That 20 pt win in H-town saw Dallas shoot a blistering 54.1% for the game, including 17 of 34 three-pointers. They scored 74 pts in the 1H and it was never close after that. As you can probably tell, this is a much improved team this year after the 24-win disaster of a season ago. They are already half way to that win total this year and we've played only a quarter of the games. The team is coming off their own blowout loss (26 pts), to New Orleans, but that was on the road where the improvement hasn't really translated. At home, they've won eight in a row, beating the likes of Oklahoma City, Golden State, Boston, the Clippers and Portland. They average 115.2 PPG here. Meanwhile, a Houston team that led the league w/ 65 regular season wins last year has fallen off rather dramatically. They've been held under 100 pts seven times, which is more than double the number of times that happened over the course of 82 games LY. James Harden & Chris Paul went a combined 10 for 27 against Utah and the supporting cast simply is not as strong this year. Right now, the Rockets are one of only four teams in the Western Conference that have been outscored on the season. That puts them in a rather precarious position as the only team below them in the standings is Phoenix! The Rockets have not fared well on the road this year, going just 5-9 ATS, including 3-6 as the favorite. They're also 2-7 ATS after allowing 115+ pts in their last game. 10* Dallas | |||||||
12-08-18 | Loyola-Chicago +9.5 v. Maryland | Top | 41-55 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
10* Loyola Chi (4:00 ET): With all due respect to Sister Jean, we all knew Loyola Chicago would take a step back this year. I mean, how could they not after that incredible Final Four run last March? The Ramblers went an amazing 32-6 SU last season en route to San Antonio, but knew they wouldn't be sneaking up on anyone this year and have already dropped four games. One of them, I was against them in what was a huge revenge game for their opponent (Nevada). The Ramblers now come into this game as losers of three of their last four, having lost outright as a 5-pt home favorite to Ball State on Wednesday. Maryland is one of EIGHT Big 10 teams currently ranked in the top 25. That conference is absolutely loaded this year as there's a 9th team - Indiana - probably worthy of Top 25 consideration as well. While I just said that Loyola Chi "wouldn't be sneaking up on anyone" this year, don't be surprised if the Terps aren't taking them as seriously as they should. Maryland is coming off a series of high-profile games, all of them going down to the wire, and may not have as much "left in the tank" as they'd like. They just lost at Purdue on Thursday by two. It was their second loss in three games as they fell by five to Virginia as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. This is a young team. Seven of the top eight players in the rotation are either freshman or sophomores. Note this is technically a neutral site game, taking place in Baltimore. I think that's a big break for Loyola not having to go into College Park. As for those eight ranked Big 10 teams, I happen to think Maryland is the weakest of the lot and probably shouldn't even be ranked. Missing eight of its final nine shots, the Terps shot less than 30% in the second half vs. Purdue and that loss will be hard to shake. Meanwhile, Loyola is an underdog for only the 2nd time this year (first was vs. Nevada) and should be motivated back in a more comfortable role. Ball State shot 57% against them, which isn't happening again here. The Ramblers are 15-7 ATS when taking points the L3 seasons. They are also 4-2 SU L6 vs. the Top 25 and 10-2 SU L12 on a neutral court. Take the points. 10* Loyola Chi | |||||||
12-08-18 | Navy v. Army -7 | Top | 10-17 | Push | 0 | 67 h 29 m | Show |
10* Army (3:00 ET): For the first time since 2001, Army is favored to win this game. They should be. The Knights are 9-2 SU, reigning C-in-C Trophy winners and simply a much better team than Navy this season. Pardon the terrible pun, but the Midshipmen have been somewhat "lost at sea" in 2018. They won't be going to a bowl game this year, the first time that's been the case since 2002, which was the year they started their historic 14-year win streak over Army. That came to an end two years ago in Baltimore. I was on Army that day, as 5.5-pt underdogs, as they won 21-17. Last year was another Army win, this time 14-13 as 2.5 pt dogs. Lay the points as the Knight deserve to be double-digit favorites in this one. Navy enters this game w/ a 3-9 record, their worst SU mark in any season since ... 2002. That was Paul Johnson's first year in Annapolis and he just retired from the Georgia Tech job. This particular Navy team is very bad defensively. They allow almost 35 points per game while also giving up 6.65 yards per play, the 11th worst mark in the entire country. While any matchup of two service academies (including Air Force) is typically low-scoring, I believe Army will still be able to do plenty of scoring in this one. Since winning a game in a driving rainstorm vs. Memphis in Week 2, only one FBS opponent (Temple) has failed to score more than 29 points against the Midshipmen. Navy has regularly blown out this season w/ six of its nine losses coming by double digits. The Memphis win was fortunate (weather). Since beating FCS Lehigh the following week, the Middies are just 1-8 SU the L9 games w/ that one win coming against a 3-9 Tulsa team, at home. Army gives up only 18.7 PPG (17th in FBS) and 15.5 first downs per game (6th), giving them a huge edge on the defensive side of the ball. Their only two losses this year were to Oklahoma and Duke, both on the road, and they took the Sooners into overtime! Since that OT loss in Norman, the Black Knights are 7-0 SU, winning five of those games by at least two touchdowns. We know these teams run similar, if not identical, offenses. But Navy has posted its worst rushing season in a decade, averaging just 5.0 yards per carry. Meanwhile, Army can actually turn to the pass as they average 10.5 yards per attempt through the air. Third downs are also key here w/ Army leading the country at a 57% conversion rate. Navy is only 39%. 10* Army | |||||||
12-06-18 | Pepperdine v. UC Riverside +7.5 | Top | 71-75 | Win | 100 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
10* UC Riverside (10:00 ET): UC Riverside isn't having the best start to the season (just 2-7 SU). But here's the thing: that was to be expected. They haven't been favored in a single game and they've played just twice at home. Once was a win against non-DI team UC Merced. The other was a 10-pt loss to Cal Baptist. The Highlanders' only other win was an upset (as 5.5-pt dogs) of Elon in a Holiday Tournament. They're finally back home Thursday, hosting a Pepperdine team that is laying WAY too many points considering they aren't very good either. Take the points in this one. The Waves of Pepperdine do own a mark of 5-1 ATS. They're also 5-3 straight up. But they just dropped a non-lined game to CS-Northridge, at home, 90-83. Pepperdine blew a double-digit lead as defense continues to be a problem for them. They're allowing 77.6 PPG so far, which is just awful, and one of their wins (Miami OH) saw them miraculously rally back from an 18-point deficit in the second half to win 88-80. Something that you may not be aware of is that the Waves won all of six games LY. So Lorenzo Romar has the program at least pointed in the right direction in his second stint coaching the team. But this is just the second "true" road game for the Waves w/ the first being an 88-80 loss to Northern Colorado. It'll also mark the first time they've been a "true" road favorite since the 2015-16 season! They've won a total of just 15 games the past two seasons and are 1-27 SU their last 28 road games! So you can see where I'd be of the belief that this is far too many points for them to lay. UC Riverside isn't exactly Duke, but they are sufficient enough to cover this generous spread. The Highlanders also have revenge here for an 11-pt loss LY at Pepperdine where the Waves took and made 13 more free throws. Pepperdine does deserve to be favored here, but not by this much. 10* UC Riverside | |||||||
12-05-18 | Nebraska -2.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 78-85 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
10* Nebraska (9:00 ET): I'm alot higher on this Cornhuskers team than most people. They finally cracked the Top 25 this week, but probably should be a lot higher. They're 7-1 SU w/ the only loss coming to a very good Texas Tech team, at a neutral site, on a poor shooting night. I took them when they went to Clemson and won as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. They followed that up by beating Illinois 75-60 in the Big 10 opener. They jumped all over the Illini, racing out to a 13-2 lead and never trailed. They never led by less than nine points the entire second half. The biggest key was the frequency w/ which they got to the FT line. They went 25 of 30 from the line for the game. For the year, Nebraska is now outscoring teams by 23.8 points per game. Minnesota is a team I faded in their Big 10 opener. The Gophers had to go to Columbus to face Ohio State and lost 79-59. The game played out similarly to Nebraska-Illinois, only w/ the Gophers playing the role of the Illini. The score was 26-7 a little over 10 minutes in and never really got close after that. Perhaps the most incredible thing of all is that Minnesota missed all 13 three-point attempts it took. At home, that's highly unlikely to be repeated, but note Nebraska can be just as effective defensively as Ohio State. In fact, the Cornuskers rank slightly higher than the Buckeyes in defensive efficiency (17th vs. 21st) and scoring (4th vs. 17th). Nebraska is 6-1-1 ATS on the season. Thus, you'd think they'd carry more respect in the marketplace. Yet they're only a small favorite against an inferior foe that just got blown out. I realize it's a "true" road game, in conference, but the Cornhuskers already went to Clemson (ranked at the time) and won. Minnesota has been dreadful in its two road games while going 6-0 SU at home or neutral sites. But even the home court can't save them here as Nebraska will own a substantial edge on the glass and their smothering defense figures to turn the Gophers over w/ great regularity. Something to keep in mind is that the 'Huskers won here LY, 91-85 as a 3.5-pt dog. 10* Nebraska | |||||||
12-05-18 | Nuggets v. Magic +5 | Top | 124-118 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:05 ET): Something is going to have to give in this battle of hot teams. Denver just might be the best team in the West right now as they've won and covered six straight, many of them against top tier teams. They just beat Toronto, on the road, 106-103 as seven-point underdogs. Not to be outdone, Orlando has been on quite the ATS role itself. Last night's outright win in Miami puts them at 11-1-1 ATS their L13 games. They are 8-5 straight up during that same stretch. Coincidentally, the only game they lost ATS was against Denver back on November 23rd. That was the start of the six-game road trip that just concluded last night. I look for a much better result in tonight's rematch as the Magic are back home. Take the points. Even in a weak Eastern Conference, Orlando has not made the playoffs since Dwight Howard left town. That's a long time. It's been six years and only Sacramento and Phoenix have longer active droughts. But w/ LeBron James out West, the East is more wide open this year and the Magic have a legit shot at finishing in the top eight. Last night's win got them to .500 and they're currently in seventh place (actually lead the Southeast Division!). They beat the Heat by allowing just 90 points, their second straight strong defensive performance, although the other one was against a short-handed and downtrodden Suns team. It also helped they shot 50% from three-point range last night. For a third time, they turned in a quarter w/ a point differential of +18 or better. Denver obviously presents a greater challenge. The Nuggets have won and covered the L5 meetings w/ the Magic, including the 25-point beatdown in the Mile High City two weeks ago. That game was relatively close until the 4th quarter. But this one occurs smack dab in the middle of a five-game road trip for the Nuggets. While they have been on a roll, do note that four of the six wins in this Denver win streak have come by single digits and 6 of the team's 16 wins this season have been by five points or fewer. Also, they won't have leading scorer Gary Harris Jr in the lineup tonight as he left the Toronto game Monday w/ a hip injury. Though they failed to cover against Denver the first time, Orlando is 12-5 ATS as an underdog this season otherwise. All signs point to this rematch being a lot closer w/ the Magic having a great shot at pulling the outright upset. 8* Orlando | |||||||
12-04-18 | Northeastern +11 v. Syracuse | Top | 49-72 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
8* Northeastern (6:45 ET): N'eastern might be down some bodies, but give the Huskies a ton of credit for still competing. They're actually missing three starters from LY's team, not because of graduation mind you, but rather due to injuries. This includes their top two scorers, Vasa Pusica and Shawn Occeus. You'd think that they'd be struggling in light of this rash of injuries, but instead they're off B2B wins, both coming by double digits! They won at Bucknell by 18 on November 28th, then returned home to down Eastern Michigan by 14 on Saturday. The task will obviously be far greater tonight in the Carrier Dome, but Northeastern is getting too many points here. Syracuse is 5-2 SU. Given "brand recognition," it's not a surprise they drew votes for the latest Top 25 poll, though they didn't quite make it in. I don't think they belong there anyway, even though they did go to Ohio State and record an impressive 72-62 road win last week (part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge). That was followed up w/ a 63-55 win against Cornell over the weekend. But be wary of the Orange in this spot as they have a lookahead to long-time rival Georgetown this weekend. That game has always carried significant meaning throughout the tenure of Jim Boeheim, who is now in his 42nd year at the helm (incredible!). Also, last week's efforts were not exactly indicative of what we saw from this team in the first four games, which included losses to both UConn and Oregon. Syracuse came nowhere close to covering the 21.5-pt spread against Cornell on Saturday. They are now just 2-4 ATS as favorites. Now, one of Boeheim's sons plays for Cornell (the other plays for him!), so you could argue the coach may have taken it easy. I don't think that's the case, however. The 'Cuse shot 50% overall for the game, yet still couldn't manage to pull away. Normally, this is not a great shooting team. They are just 41.9% overall for the year, including a woeful 29.1% from 3-pt range. Meanwhile, six of Northeastern's top seven scorers can shoot the three and they are 41.1% from behind the arc. Three-point shooting can play a huge role w/ a double digit spread and I think the underdog easily stays within the number here. 8* Northeastern | |||||||
12-04-18 | Senators +1.5 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -170 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Ottawa (7:35 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I'm taking the Senators at +1.5. Ottawa got off to a dreadful start to the year, but has somewhat turned things around recently w/ a three-game win streak. Meanwhile, Montreal's season has gone the opposite way. They started 4-1-1, but have begun to fade, losing six of their last seven games. The last three losses have all taken place here at home. So I certainly don't support the notion that they're likely to win here by more than one goal. These Canadian rivals share common opponents their last two games. Both beat the Rangers at home. But while Ottawa dominated San Jose on 12/1 (won 6-2), the Habs lost to the Sharks the following night by a score of 3-1. Again, take the +1.5. Tonight's game marks the front end of a home and home between these teams. Ottawa has admittedly not been sharp on the road this year where it is just 3-8-1 SU overall and giving up a frightening average of 5.1 goals per game. The Sens' biggest problem is that they allow far too many shots on goal. They are allowing the most per game in the league right now (37.9) and as a result are giving up the most goals per game (4.04) as well. But lately, they've been a lot better, giving up just five goals total in the L3 games. Credit is due to goalie Craig Anderson, who has made 63 saves on 65 shots the L2 games, including a shutout of the Rangers. He has a .933 save percentage his L4 starts as well. Montreal lost the first matchup w/ Ottawa this season, 4-3, twice blowing a two-goal advantage. That was on the road, but I'm not expecting any better from them at home. This is a team that's been held to two goals or fewer in five of its last six contests. Against San Jose on Sunday, they fell behind quickly and never recovered. Goaltending has been an issue for the Canadiens all season long w/ a collective save percentage of just .895. Not only have the Habs dropped 20 of their past 27 division games, but they have also lost four straight times when playing for a third time in a four-day span. That's the situation they find themselves in tonight. 8* Puck Line Ottawa (+1.5) | |||||||
12-03-18 | Redskins +6 v. Eagles | Top | 13-28 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 37 m | Show |
10* Washington (8:20 ET): Just a little over a week ago, the Eagles seemed to be dead and buried. They were coming off a humiliating 48-7 loss to the Saints (biggest lost EVER for reigning SB champ!) and down 19-3 at home to the last place Giants. But then, they "woke up," rallying for a 25-22 win despite getting outgained by the G-Men. Now, things appear to be looking up in Philly. Sure, the team is only 5-6 SU, a far cry from LY's record. But they're favored Monday night and a win would keep them within just one game of first place Dallas, who they'll play next week. At the very worst, the second Wild Card in the NFC is still in play as only five teams in the conference currently have more than six victories. But are we THAT sure the Eagles are back? Washington's season seems to be trending in the opposite direction as Philly. They were in first place just two weeks ago, at 6-3 SU. But two losses later and there are more questions than answers. The biggest one is at the quarterback position where the team is still trying to get over the shock of losing Alex Smith for the rest of the season. I think veteran Colt McCoy has come in and played admirably though despite little time to prepare. He led two scoring drives in a 23-21 loss to Houston, then last week (on a very short turnaround) he completed 24 of 38 passes for 268 yards against Dallas (did have 3 INT's). I'm not convinced that this team is more than marginally worse w/ McCoy at QB than they were with Smith. Remember that Dallas defense just held Drew Brees in check! Though it gave up 31 pts to a surging Cowboys team on Thanksgiving, the Redskins still have a pretty good defense. That defense seems to travel well too as it gives up just 19.2 PPG on the road. I would not be surprised if this is a low-scoring game, which obviously then favors the underdog. The Eagles have not been good in the favorite role this season, going just 2-7 ATS w/ five outright losses. They have also failed to cover five straight home games. The Redskins are 6-2 ATS as underdogs this year w/ five outright wins. So the respective roles seem to suit Washington much better. The Eagles did sweep the season series LY, but it's pretty clear they aren't as strong a team in 2018. Remember they are decimated by injuries in the secondary. The defense is also allowing a league worst 6.03 yards per rush the L6 wks. McCoy and Washington have also had plenty of time to prepare here, having not played since Thanksgiving. Take the points. 10* Washington | |||||||
12-02-18 | Chargers v. Steelers -3 | Top | 33-30 | Loss | -130 | 123 h 22 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (8:20 ET): Though slightly favored and at home, I get the sense that in the minds of the public, the Steelers are almost "underdogs" here. They lost last week, 24-17 at Denver. That loss came on the heels of what should be considered a very fortunate win at Jacksonville the week prior. However, investigating the box score from last week shows that the Steelers actually played well. They outgained the Broncos 527-308. The problem was they - specifically QB Ben Roethlisberger - could not protect the football and finished -4 in turnovers. It was a similar story w/ the escape in Jacksonville where they had a clear edge in total yds nearly undone by three TO's. Back at home Sunday night, I suspect the giveaways will cease. I'm going to lay the short number. Looking at the Chargers season, a pretty clear pattern emerges. They've beaten up on a lot of bad teams: Wins have come against the Cardinals, Raiders twice, Titans, Browns, 49ers and Bills. They did win at Seattle, but also lost at home to Denver. Their other two losses were to the Rams and Chiefs, two of the best teams in the league. The Steelers are stronger on paper than any team LA has beaten all year. Here, the Chargers will be going into a hostile environment w/o their top running back, Melvin Gordon. This is a big deal. The Steelers defense has been very good this year, the last six games in particular. The 24 pts allowed LW were the most since September. But they barely allowed over 300 total yds. They allowed fewer than 300 total yds each of the previous five games! For the year, the Steelers rank 6th in total defense. The Chargers are 9th, but have given up slightly less points (and done so against a far less challenging schedule). The Steelers give up slightly less yardage on a per play basis. The offenses are basically dead even in this matchup, but the Chargers take a major hit w/o RB Gordon. Remember that the last time the Steelers played at home, they absolutely destroyed Carolina, 52-21, and Big Ben had a near perfect passer rating. My call is that Roethlisberger cuts way down on the turnovers Sunday night and leads his team to a comfortable victory. Don't be surprised if he and fellow '04 Draft class alum Philip Rivers see each other again in the playoffs. 8* Pittsburgh | |||||||
12-02-18 | Minnesota v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 59-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
8* Ohio State (7:00 ET): The mood this morning in Columbus may be one of resignation as the fate of Ohio State's football program seems destined NOT for the College Football playoff. But the Buckeyes' basketball program, not bad in its own right, can certainly lift the campus' spirits w/ a big win tonight. Over the last week, you may have heard about the NCAA's much maligned new rating system, NET (replacing RPI), which had Ohio State as the #1 team in the land. That ranking was met w/ almost universal mockery and it certainly didn't help that the Buckeyes lost their first game after the rankings were released. Wednesday, here in Columbus, they went down to Syracuse 72-62 as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. But foolish rankings aside, OSU remains a strong team ready to do damage as Big 10 play gets underway Sunday. I'll lay the points here. The Buckeyes started the season 6-0 w/ a couple of impressive road wins over Cincinnati and Creighton. Considering Creighton just took #1 Gonzaga to the limit yday (led by double digits) and Cincy's rep, there's no denying those are two quality wins. Against Syracuse, a good team, things kind of fell apart in the second half. The Orange finished the game at 46% from three-point range (11 of 24), a far cry from what previous Buckeyes' opponents had shot from behind the arc. Consider that - for the season - OSU is still allowing only 28.7% shooting from three-point range. So we'll just consider what the 'Cuse did to be an aberration. It was also the just the school's ninth loss in the L42 home games. Minnesota also comes in at 6-1 SU on the year. The Golden Gophers lost their Big 10-ACC Challenge game, 68-56 at Boston College, which was their first and only "true" road game thus far. They've also played a game since, vs. Oklahoma State, which they won 83-76. But might that extra game be a "detriment" when it comes to preparing for this Big 10 opener? I think it may. Ohio State has been off since Wednesday while its just a 48-hour turnaround for the Gophers. Minny played OK State at U.S. Bank Stadium (home of the NFL's Vikings) and caught a break w/ their opponent going just 12 of 24 from the FT line. They still allowed the Pokes to shoot 10 of 19 from three-point range, which could be a problem here. In that one "true" road game so far, the Gophers shot a horrific 29.2% from the field. They've played a challenging schedule, but figure to come up short again here. 8* Ohio State | |||||||
12-02-18 | Chiefs v. Raiders +15.5 | Top | 40-33 | Win | 100 | 119 h 0 m | Show |
8* Oakland (4:05 ET): This is obviously a real "hold your nose" and take the points kind of situation. Because of that, my analysis will be a little more brief than usual. That doesn't mean I like the play any less compared to any other normal selection, because I do like it quite a bit. It's just that there's little the Raiders or Chiefs have done this year that would convince rational minds that the former is the right side here. But this one is all about the number; testing the limits of how many points the public is willing to lay w/ a good team against a bad one, even if it is on the road. For me, this is an overlay. Take the points. Over the last 30 seasons, Kansas City has been a double-digit road favorite just twice. Once was back in 1992 against a historically bad Seahawks team. The other time was LY against the Giants (who finished 3-13). They did not cover either game. In fact, they lost outright to the Giants, 12-9 in overtime! The spread for this matchup against the Raiders is almost unprecedented in nature, at least for the Chiefs. They've never been favored by two touchdowns on the road as far back as I have data (1989). Oakland has been a double digit home dog six times in the last 10 seasons. The last time was just three weeks ago and they lost to the Chargers 20-6. They were only 10-pt dogs then and even got out to an early lead. Total yardage was basically even in that game, the difference was the Raiders turning it over twice in the red zone. The Raiders have never been a home dog of more than two touchdowns, so again, this line is somewhat unprecedented. Note ALL double digit home dogs have gone 82-65-5 ATS over the L30 seasons. There have only been 25 instances of a home team getting 14 or more points the L30 seasons and only one of those came since 2012. Kansas City is not w/o issue heading into this game. They will be w/o WR Sammy Watkins and RB Kareem Hunt finds himself embroiled in controversy after TMZ released video of him kicking and shoving a woman. Thus, his status for this game could be in doubt. Then you have a Chiefs defense that is surrendering 34.3 points and 457 yards per game on the road. They are allowing 6.7 yards per play. All those numbers rank near the bottom of the league. Oakland did win a game two weeks ago. So much for "brief analysis" ... I like this one! 8* Oakland | |||||||
12-02-18 | Rams v. Lions +11 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -128 | 116 h 2 m | Show |
10* Detroit (1:00 ET): The Rams are one of the top teams in the league and coming off their bye. Those two factors alone guarantee a large spread. But remember that the last time we saw them, they were winning perhaps the greatest NFL regular season game ever played, 54-51 over the Chiefs. So it's really not a surprise to see them so heavily favored this week in Detroit. But, to me, the oddsmakers know what the public likes and this looks like a classic overlay. Just two weeks ago, Detroit was my *10* Game of the Week and upset a Carolina team that had won five of its previous seven games. The Lions are also off a bit of a "mini-bye" here having last played a game on Thanksgiving. They're too good to be getting double digits at home. Take the points. Somewhat lost in the Rams' impressive 10-1 start to the season is that their heavily-hyped defense has been a clear disappointment. Twice in the last three weeks they've given up 45 or more points. Now those games were against the Saints & Chiefs, the two top offenses in the league. But they've also allowed 27 or more points in six of the last eight games. They allow a frightening 6.5 yards per play for the year and that number gets even higher when you factor out the first two teams they faced, Oakland and Arizona. So my point is that Detroit is going to be able to score plenty of points in this game. Add in what the oddsmakers are giving them & the Rams' offense will have to be at its best to cover this spread. The Lions had to withstand a failed two-point attempt to beat Carolina two weeks ago, 20-19. Well, they also could have easily upset Chicago Thanksgiving. But Matt Stafford threw a pick-six in the 4Q to lose the game, 23-16. Now that was against an offense led by backup QB Chase Daniel. I realize the Lions offense is no longer the same w/o WR Golden Tate (traded) and RB Kerryon Johnson (questionable to play here). But Matt Patricia's defense turned in multiple strong efforts in November and I think will be highly motivated here. The Rams have been favored by double digits only one other time this year - Week 2 at home vs. Arizona. The last time they closed as DD road favorites was the "Greatest Show on Turf" days. Detroit has not been a DD home dog since '09, Matt Stafford's rookie season (year after they went 0-16 SU). 10* Detroit | |||||||
12-01-18 | Raptors v. Cavs +13.5 | Top | 106-95 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (8:05 ET): Teams at opposite ends of the Eastern Conference spectrum meet tonight in Cleveland. The Raptors lead the East w/ a 19-4 SU record (best in the league) after beating Golden State Thursday night. The Cavs are now 4-17 SU after losing big (128-95) in Boston last night. Things have come full circle here as these teams opened the season against one another w/ Toronto winning 116-104. They just missed out on the cover as 12.5-pt chalk. While things went south in Cleveland in hurry, post-LeBron, I don't think the Cavs deserve to be this large an underdog tonight. Take the points. Last week, the Cavs were kind to me, cashing two different times as a premium release. Most impressive of all is that they covered both games wire to wire for the full 96 minutes. One was the heavily-hyped game vs. LeBron and the Lakers. The other was vs. Houston, which was an outright upset as a 10-point dog. Both games were at home. This number is even larger. Granted, that's because the Raptors are a stronger foe, but it's still an overlay. Cleveland has been far more competitive at home this year as opposed to the road where they're just 1-10 SU. The last time they dropped a game by double digits here at the Quicken Loans Arena was November 1st. With LeBron on its roster, Cleveland was a long-time nemesis for Toronto, so expect no sympathy from the favorite tonight. Still, the number is just too large. The Raptors have won seven in a row, the win over Golden State arguably being the high point of the season so far. So don't be surprised if the Raptors take the Cavs a little lightly here. After all, they've already beaten them once. That was that game where they were going to take out any remaining angst against the post-LeBron Cavaliers. Being a road favorite of more than 12.5 points is almost unprecedented for Toronto. They're 0-2 ATS in the role all-time. On the flip side, the Cavs are 2-0 ATS as home dogs of 12.5 or more. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
12-01-18 | Butler -3.5 v. St. Louis | Top | 52-64 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
10* Butler (5:00 ET): We'll probably always associate Butler w/ the back to back runs to the National Title Game under former HC Brad Stevens in 2010-11. But, seven years later, the program remains quite strong. I believe the Bulldogs are worthy of Top 25 consideration right now as they've started 5-1 SU w/ a win over Florida last week. Remember that this is a team that made it to the Round of 32 in LY's NCAA Tournament where it bowed out to second-seeded Purdue by just two points. Today is their first "true" road game of the season and we find them only laying a small number to a St. Louis squad it defeated by 30 points last year. I realize it's now a road game, but Butler should handle its business w/ relative ease Saturday. Lay the points. Butler had been favored in all of its games before facing Florida (pick 'em). They did drop a disappointing decision to Dayton, 69-64 as seven-point chalk, back on November 21st. But they quickly responded w/ a 31-point win over Middle Tennessee, then came the big win over Florida. All those games took place down in Atlantis. It was an off-shooting night in the loss to Dayton, but a much different story vs. MTSU. Against Florida, it was a dominant 2nd half w/ the Bulldogs shooting 50% from the floor while "tightening the screws" on the Gators, holding them to just 29% overall, including 1 of 12 on three-point attempts. Butler is top 20 in the country in offensive efficiency right now and a solid 41st defensively, per KenPom. St. Louis has the same 5-1 SU record as Butler, so it's a little surprising that they're only 1-5 ATS. Then again, they've been double digit favorites in four of the ATS losses and gone 0-4 vs. the number. That tells me that this is not a dominant team, even against lesser competition. The Billikens do hold an upset over Seton Hall, on the road, a rare instance of the visitor drastically outshooting its host from behind the arc. But they followed that up w/ an outright loss to Pitt (as a 4-pt favorite) in yet another hard-fought game that was decided by just two points. Last weekend, they beat Central Arkansas by only 12 points. A St. Louis team that ranks 137th in offensive efficiency is going to have issues scoring today and I just don't see them keeping up w/ their sharpshooting opponent. 10* Butler | |||||||
12-01-18 | Georgia +13.5 v. Alabama | Top | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 120 h 27 m | Show |
10* Georgia (4:00 ET): Alabama is in a bit of a unique position as they go for a 4th SEC Championship Game victory in the last five seasons (remember, they didn't play in LY's game despite going onto win the CFP). They really don't need to win this game to ensure a spot in the top four of the CFP rankings. Now, obviously they'll WANT to win the game (especially after not being involved last year) and Nick Saban doesn't allow for lookaheads, letdowns or anything else of that nature. But Georgia, easily the best team Bama has faced this year, does have to win Saturday to make the CFP. This is obviously a rematch of last year's National Title Game, which was won by Bama 26-23 in overtime. Now UGA will have to face QB Tua Tagovailoa for a full game and not just a half. The Tide are better this year, but I'm not sure they're 13 pts better than Georgia in what should be a very hostile environment (game played in Atlanta). I'll take the points! Alabama is a perfect 4-0 SU vs. Georgia over the last decade, despite none of those games taking place in Tuscaloosa. Last year's win was obviously the most memorable of the quartet, given what was at stake. The game saw Bama spot UGA a 13-0 halftime led, but then came Tua and the rest is history. This Alabama team is probably Saban's best (which is saying something), but Georgia will also be its toughest opponent. I'm a contrarian by nature, but have stepped in front of this Bama train only once this season. It was w/ Mississippi State, who covered despite not scoring a single point. Since suffering its only loss of the season (36-16 at LSU), Georgia has won all of its games by at least 17 points. The big story in that LSU loss was them being -4 in turnovers. This Georgia team isn't quite as strong as last year, but that's been accounted for by the oddsmakers. Last year's National Title Game had a 3.5-point spread. A 10-pt adjustment just seems like too much even after factoring in Bama being better and UGA being slightly worse. The key here is - unlike most of Bama's opponents this year - Georgia actually has an offense. The Dawgs average more than 40 PPG and while it's highly unlikely they'll get to that number Saturday afternoon, I believe they are certainly capable of scoring enough to cover this generous spread, which I did NOT expect to be in the double digits. If Bama was able to get up by more than the spread, I could certainly envision a "backdoor" scenario for the underdog. Either way, Georgia covers. 10* Georgia | |||||||
12-01-18 | Kansas State v. Marquette -2.5 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 5 h 6 m | Show |
8* Marquette (2:30 ET): As we continue to look to "pick off" teams from the dwindling list of remaining unbeatens, Kansas State will be our next target. The 6-0 Wildcats certainly aren't a fraudulent team by any means, but they're certainly overrated at #12 in the polls. Despite that ranking, they check in as slight underdogs on Saturday to an unranked Marquette team. This is the oddsmakers essentially "tipping their hand" and I'll call for the Wildcats to fall for the 1st time this season. This will be their first "true" road game and despite winning the Paradise Jam, it's hardly been a daunting schedule thus far for Bruce Weber's team. Meanwhile, Marquette won't be intimidated here having already faced the likes of Indiana, Kansas & Louisville. Lay the short number here. Marquette played two of those three teams tough, even beating Louisville (who just upset Michigan State) in overtime. That came two days after losing to Kansas 77-68 as 8.5-pt dogs. Both those games came at a neutral setting (New York City) as part of the NIT Tipoff. The only game the Golden Eagles played poorly this year was when they traveled to Indiana for their lone "true" road game to date. After "upsetting" L'ville (actually favored), Marquette returned home to play Charleston Southern on Tuesday. They won that game easily, 76-55 as 18.5-pt chalk. It was the fourth time this season the Golden Eagles held an opponent below 60 points. The fact that this team was favored over Louisville I think is pretty instructive as to the caliber of team we're getting here. If Marquette does struggle in one area, it's taking care of the basketball. They've turned it over on 20% of their possessions this year and I can see where that would be a problem vs. a team like Kansas State. But, at home, I suspect protecting the basketball will be priority #1. Remember that KSU has not had to play in a hostile environment all year. Marquette is 31-10 SU its last 41 home games and is #26 nationally in offensive efficiency. Aside from the Indiana game, they've played good defense as well. In four home games, they've allowed just 52.5 PPG. No one is going undefeated this season and for Kansas State, they'll taste defeat for the first time Saturday afternoon. 8* Marquette | |||||||
12-01-18 | Texas v. Oklahoma -7.5 | Top | 27-39 | Win | 100 | 118 h 40 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma (12:00 ET): In the build for this game, you're likely to hear two trends spouted quite a bit. One, Texas has covered six straight times against Oklahoma, including a 48-45 upset as 7-pt underdogs earlier this year. Two, Longhorns HC Tom Herman is 12-1 ATS as a dog in his coaching career (including at Houston) w/ NINE outright upsets. So I expect UT to be quite the popular underdog this week. But it is Oklahoma w/ more to play for here as a win could (and should!) send the Sooners to the College Football Playoff. Then there is the revenge angle as they have a shot at avenging their lone regular season defeat. If they do so, that should impress the committee enough to ensure their place in the top four. I'll take it a step further and say that if OU wins big here (and I obviously think they can), then they deserve to jump Notre Dame for the #3 spot (won't happen though). There is no doubt that Texas will enter this game w/ plenty of confidence. It is again at a neutral field and the L5 RRR's have all been decided by seven points or less. Instead of the traditional meeting place of the Cotton Bowl in Dallas (1st Saturday of every October), this time the rivals will play in nearby Arlington, in Cowboys Stadium. Given the stakes, a case can be made for this being one of the most important OU-Texas games EVER. It's a spot I'm not sure the Longhorns are ready for. Sure, they almost always play close games (9 of their 12 reg season games decided by less than 7 pts, went 6-3 SU). But this is a team that lost to both Oklahoma State and Maryland. Though they did score a season-high 48 pts in the upset of OU back in October, I'm just not convinced that the Longhorns can must up the type of offensive performance necessary to keep pace here. The fast track of "Jerry World" will definitely favor Oklahoma. Oklahoma leads the country w/ 50.3 points and 584 yards per game. They've scored at least 45 pts in every game but two, one of which was Army basically playing "keep away." They've scored more than 50 five of the last six weeks. Both teams had close calls last week w/ OU outlasting WVU 59-56 and Texas only beating Kansas 24-17. In the regular season meeting, note that while the Sooners did fall behind by as many as 21 points, they were -3 in turnovers and still rallied to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. Led by sensational QB Kyler Murray, they are definitely the better team here and actually undervalued. "Boomer Sooner" should pull off a "statement win" for the committee. Lay the points. 10* Oklahoma | |||||||
12-01-18 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State -17.5 | Top | 19-30 | Loss | -107 | 117 h 27 m | Show |
8* Appalachian State (12:00 ET): App State is one of the larger favorites on Conference Championship Saturday, but the spread was actually higher when they face Louisiana in the regular season. A lot higher. In fact, the Mountaineers were bet all the way up to -26 against the Ragin Cajuns, a game they only won by 10 points (27-17). This rematch also takes place in Boone w/ the Sun Belt title now on the line. To me, App State has clearly been the class of the SBC all season long, losing only one conference game and it was Thursday night, on the road. I can't help but think that the oddsmakers have overadjusted their line for this Title Game as I don't think Louisiana is eight points better now than they were a month ago nor is App State eight points worse. The spread shouldn't have been near four touchdowns again, but three (meaning a 21-pt spread) certainly would have been appropriate. The value is on the favorite here. This is the first ever Sun Belt Conference Championship Game as the league split into two divisions for the 1st time this year. Appalachian State was expected to be here and largely handled its business during the regular season. They went 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS. Besides the Thursday night loss at Georgia Southern, the only other SU loss was an overtime game against Penn State all the way back in the season opener. Louisiana is a bit of a surprise entrant, having won the more wide open West Division w/ a 5-3 SU conference record (went 7-5 SU overall). They clinched their spot here w/ a 31-28 upset of LA Monroe last Saturday. While App State outscored Sun Belt teams by 147 points this year, Louisiana was only +24. In fact, the Ragin Cajuns were actually outscored over the course of their entire 2018 season. They are - pretty easily - the worst team playing in a Conference Title Game this weekend. Both of these offenses can score and certainly run the ball effectively. App State paces only slightly ahead of Louisiana in both metrics, averaging 37.3 points and 242 rush yds per contest (compared to Louisana's 33.7 and 230). But the key to this game lies on the defensive side of the ball. In eight conference games, ASU surrendered only 108 total points. They've allowed an average of just 15.4 PPG this year and didn't allow more than 17 in any of their nine wins. Louisiana allows 34.0 PPG for the season. When it comes to stopping the run (will be very important in this game!), ASU has allowed only 11 rushing TD's this year compared to 30 for Louisiana. Then there is the homefield advantage. ASU is 5-0 SU in Boone, winning by an average of 31.8 PPG! It should be noted that they led the Ragin Cajuns 27-10 in the regular season meeting before giving up a TD w/ just over a minute to go. This one won't be nearly as close. 8* Appalachian State | |||||||
11-30-18 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo -3.5 | Top | 30-29 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
10* Northern Illinois (7:00 ET): Northern Illinois is no stranger to the MAC Title Game. This will be their seventh appearance in the last nine years and they've won three of the previous six times here. It didn't always look like a clear path for the Huskies to arrive again in 2018 and a poor finish to the regular season (upset in each of last two games) undeniably affected their stock heading into this game. But this is a team that took on a challenging non-conference sked w/ games against Utah, Florida State, Iowa and BYU. So that helps explain the difference in overall records with them and MAC East Champ Buffalo. The NIU offense is by no means pretty, but the defense is the MAC's best and allows only 2.6 yards per carry. In what shapes up as a low-scoring Championship Game, taking the points only seems logical. While Northern Illinois went 7-5 SU and 6-6 ATS in the regular season, Buffalo was 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS. HC Lance Leipold has engineered a tremendous turnaround here with a team that won only two games two years ago. While improvement was expected here '18, few expected the Bulls to get this far. Most of their games this season were not close affairs w/ only two (both wins) decided by 7 pts or fewer. Both times Buffalo lost this year, they were beaten badly. Once was to Army, 42-13 as a seven-point home favorite. The other was one of my favorite plays of the season - when I took Ohio as a 2-pt dog to beat them and beat them the Bobcats did, 52-17. Buffalo is making just its second MAC Title Game appearance ever, the last one coming in 2008. Both teams sport outstanding defenses and while UB looks to have a decided edge on offense, I still give the dog an excellent job at pulling off the outright upset. Northern Illinois played - by far - the tougher schedule. Other than Toledo, Buffalo's resume contains little to no "quality" wins. While these teams didn't meet in the regular season, NIU did win at Buffalo last year. When looking at NIU's two game losing streak, be aware that they had nothing to play for in either game, having already sewn up the MAC West. I think Buffalo's two losses were more telling as the offense was contained both games, something I believe NIU can do here. The Huskies allowed 17 pts or fewer in half their games. One final thing to watch out for: no team has had more field goals (7) or punts (3) blocked than Buffalo. Northern Illinois is one of the top teams in the country at blocking kicks. 8* Northern Illinois | |||||||
11-30-18 | Wisconsin -1 v. Iowa | Top | 72-66 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* Wisconsin (8:00 ET): There were still 18 teams without a loss in College Basketball entering yday. We targeted one of them, Sacramento State, who happened to be the weakest of the lot. They went down pretty easily (75-58), leaving us w/ 17 teams still w/ a "0" in the loss column. It's very likely that most of these teams are going to suffer that first loss soon, so I'd make a note of who's on "the list." Now the "elite" teams are less likely to lose, but those not defined by that label are easy targets. Such as this Iowa team I'll be playing against tonight. The Hawkeyes were lucky to escape at home vs. Pitt Tuesday, winning by just a single point as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge (which ended in a 7-7 tie). Wisconsin was similarly fortunate to win its game, but as the oddsmakers are clearly letting you know here, they're the better team. Not all unbeaten records are created equal and in this case of Iowa, it's been a pretty weak slate of opponents thus far. They did beat Oregon (ranked #13 at the time) in the semis of the 2K Classic on what was a cold-shooting night for the Ducks. The Hawkeyes have yet to play a "true" road game, something that will change next week when they visit East Lansing to play Michigan State. So we're probably going to learn a lot about this Hawkeyes team in the next two games. What we do know is they allowed Pitt to shoot a stunning 61.3% from the floor in the 1H Tuesday. They put the clamps down in the 2H, allowing just 22 pts and rallying back from a seven-point deficit at the break. Tonight will be Iowa's toughest test to date. Wisconsin has played three straight top 40 teams, all of whom I'd say are at least at the level - if not better - than the Oregon team that constitutes Iowa's best win. The Badgers have had to face Oklahoma, Virginia and NC State in the last week, losing only to Virginia, who is a top five team. They lost 53-46 to the Hoos and seemed poised to be headed for a second straight defeat on Tuesday, before rallying late to get by previously unbeaten NC State. Like Iowa, the Badgers trailed by seven at the half - at home. But a 50-pt 2H saved them and now they can knock off a second straight unbeaten opponent. This is a double revenge spot for Wisconsin too as they're 0-2 SU/ATS vs. the Hawkeyes the L2 seasons, including an 18-pt loss here in Iowa City LY. But remember that was one of the weakest Badgers' teams in recent memory (missed NCAA Tournament for first time in 19 years) and they're much improved for 2018-19, led by one of the top players in the country, Ethan Happ. I haven't even mentioned yet that due to injuries, Iowa is down to just nine scholarship players! Their unbeaten run ends tonight. 10* Wisconsin | |||||||
11-29-18 | CS Sacramento v. UC-Santa Barbara -8 | Top | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
10* Cal Santa Barbara (10:00 ET): Entering play on Thursday, there are still 18 unbeaten teams in College Hoops. Of those 18, Sacramento State is definitely the weakest and also happens to have the fewest number of wins (3). It's only inevitable that the Hornets drop a game and tonight appears to be the night as they visit an old "friend" of mine in UCSB. The Gauchos came through for me, big-time, in their season opener. They walloped a bad Wyoming team 76-66 in Laramie and are now 5-1 SU, 4-1 ATS on the year and enter tonight on a three-game win streak. There is some question over whether or not G Max Heidegger plays here (concussion), but his status has been upgraded and I actually don't think the Gauchos even need him to cover this spread. Lay the points. I mentioned earlier that Sacramento State has played only three games. Two of the wins have been by five points or less, one of them coming in OT, and the other was over a NAIA school. So, yes, it's not a stretch to call this the weakest of the remaining unbeaten teams in the country - by a pretty substantial margin. One player (Marcus Graves) is carrying the Hornets right now. He's posted a triple-double (season opener) and made the game-winner in a 58-55 win over UC Davis on November 20th. Saturday vs. Cal State Fullerton, the Hornets did lead by as many as 18 pts in the 2H, but needed OT - plus 22-12-8 from Graves - to get the win. The Hornets were slight underdogs in the last two games and tonight is their 1st "true" roadie of 2018-19. UCSB beat Sacramento State last year, on the road, 82-72 as an 8.5-pt favorite. A year later, the spread is roughly the same, even a little lower, at home. So I see value on a side that has won four straight while covering the three lined contests. Saturday against Idaho, UCSB didn't even shoot that well (36.7%), yet still won comfortably due to another outstanding effort on the defensive end. Thus far, the Gauchos have held their opponents to a ridiculous 35.6% from the floor, including just 22% from three-point range. They've played only two home games and won them by a combined 75 points. In addition to playing on this team at Wyoming, I also won w/ them in the last home game (vs. Montana State). They've been able to win w/o Heidegger before and would be able to do so again tonight. Sacramento State is way overvalued due to the "0" in the loss column. 10* Cal Santa Barbara | |||||||
11-29-18 | Saints v. Cowboys +8 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 51 h 22 m | Show |
10* Dallas (8:20 ET): Anyone who has chosen to step in front of this Saints' train has been unsuccessful at the end of the day. Well, that's technically not true. I successfully played against them back in Week 1 when they lost outright, as 10-pt home favorites, 48-40 to Tampa Bay. But since then, they're a perfect 10-0 SU and ATS, ascending to the top of everyone's power rankings. If we're being honest, I've played against them the L2 wks, thinking they were laying too many points. Last week against Atlanta, they covered by a single point in a 31-17 victory. It should be pointed out that the Falcons lost THREE fumbles inside the red zone, which was basically the difference in the game. A game where they actually outgained the Saints, 366-312. At the very least, the -3 turnover margin cost Atlanta the cover. All of a sudden, Dallas appears to be in the drivers seat in the NFC East. They are 6-5 SU, tied w/ Washington (who they just beat) and one game up on Philadelphia (who they beat three weeks ago). They are my favorite to win the division as of now. Three straight wins have totally turned this team's season around. You have to be careful about too much stock into a relatively small sample size, but there is no denying that the Cowboys are peaking at the right time. Two of the team's three best offensive performances (in terms of points scored) have come in the last three games. Key has been the addition of WR Amari Cooper, who had 180 yds receiving last week. QB Dak Prescott has completed 70% of his passes during the win streak w/ no interceptions. It's a big break for Dallas getting the Saints outside of New Orleans. Yes, the Saints are unbeaten on the road, but the Cowboys are 4-1 SU at home, outscoring opponents by more than a TD per game. The Dallas defense has actually played well all season, giving up just 19.4 PPG. They'll obviously be tested severely by the Saints' offense here, but I think the 'Boys can limit them as the most pts they've allowed all season is 28. Just like the last couple weeks, I believe this is an overlay w/ New Orleans, who is due to play a close game. Expect a steady dose of Ezekiel Elliott from Dallas to control the clock. The Cowboys have not been a home dog of more than seven points since facing the Patriots in 2015. Meanwhile, New Orleans has actually not been favored on the road by more than a TD since 2013 (did not cover). 10* Dallas | |||||||
11-28-18 | North Carolina +3 v. Michigan | Top | 67-84 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
8* North Carolina (9:30 ET): Whenever I see these two teams matched up, I automatically think of the famous 1993 Title Game where Chris Webber called that infamous timeout he didn't have, costing Michigan a National Championship. That loss is one of four Title Game losses for the Wolverines in the last 26 years, the most recent coming last March to Villanova. But the Maize and Blue seem pretty determined to finally cut down the nets this year, starting 6-0 SU and they've already exacted revenge over 'Nova in a stunning 73-46 beatdown that took place IN PHILLY. But this game vs. North Carolina, part of the Big 10-ACC Challenge, is Michigan's toughest to date. At the start of the season, I don't think many would have expected the Wolverines to be favored in this spot, even in Ann Arbor. UNC is still the better team IMO and I'll gladly take the points. The ACC has typically owned this annual event with their Big 10 counterparts. Last year, they won 11 of the 14 games. So far this year, things have been a lot more even at four wins apiece. But all four wins by the Big 10 have been by four points or less, three of them by two pts or less, which is really incredible when you think about it. Overall, this has been a very tightly contested event as the ACC pulled out a couple close ones itself last night w/ Notre Dame beating Illinois 76-74 and Louisville upsetting #9 Michigan State in overtime. Of course, the majority of these results don't have a huge bearing on our play tonight, but I do think they're instructive as to how valuable taking points w/ the ACC side is. Especially when it's North Carolina, who is rarely an underdog and still #2 overall in my own personal power ratings (behind only Duke). The Tar Heels did drop a game last week, losing to Texas 92-89 as nine-point chalk. Sadly, I had the Heels in that one as the allowed the Longhorns to shoot the lights out in Vegas. Coby White did have 33 points for UNC, the most by any freshman since Harrison Barnes went for 40 back in 2011. The team did bounce back in the consolation game vs. UCLA, winning 94-78. The Heels have now scored at least 89 points in six straight games. This should be a fascinating battle between the #4 offensive team in the country (UNC) against the top defensive team (Michigan). But at the end of the day, North Carolina is way underrated at #11 in the Top 25. They are the better team here. 8* North Carolina | |||||||
11-28-18 | Knicks +12.5 v. 76ers | Top | 91-117 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
10* New York (7:05 ET): The Knicks played last night and lost 115-108 to the Pistons. But they did cover (were +7.5), which makes it 5 straight ATS wins for this moribund franchise. They'd actually pulled three consecutive upsets prior to last night, beating Boston, New Orleans and Memphis. So even though this is the second night of a back to back (and third road game in four nights), there's no reason NY can't compete here against a Philly side that has consistently been overvalued in the early going this season. The Sixers have failed to cover each of their last four games, including an outright loss here at home to Cleveland last week as 13-pt favorites. I'm taking the points. After suffering that embarrassing loss to Cleveland last week, the Sixers were able to bounce back w/ a win in Brooklyn on Sunday. But the win came by only two points as they trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. In fact, they needed 38 4Q points to overcome the deficit they were facing (trailed by as many as 20 pts) as the Nets shot an incredible 57 percent from the floor in that game, including 46% from three-point range. I don't expect the Knicks to shoot that well tonight, but they shouldn't have to in order to gain the cover. The Sixers have failed to cover three of the last four times they've been a DD favorite. They're also 1-8 ATS this season after scoring 115+ points in the previous game. I know that the Sixers are 10-1 SU at home (just 4-7 SU on the road) and itching to play after losing their last time here to Cleveland. But falling into that 20-pt hole against Brooklyn shows me this team still has much to work on. Defensively, they've really begun to slip, giving up an average of 119.8 points the L5 games. They're actually averaging the same number of PPG that they allow for the season. So, because they're at home and the Knicks played last night, the Sixers look to be really overvalued in this spot. I know NY fell behind pretty big itself last night. But a variety of players are actually contributing now and that helps alleviate playing w/o rest. The Knicks are 9-6 ATS when taking points this year. 10* New York | |||||||
11-28-18 | Richmond +13 v. Georgetown | Top | 82-90 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* Richmond (7:00 ET): Georgetown looks to be way overvalued in this spot, which seems odd given that they've failed to cover the number in five of their first six games. Now they've won five of the six games straight up, but only one by double digits and that was the first game vs. MD-Eastern Shore (68-53) where they were 30.5-pt favorites. After a Jamaican trip that saw them lose to Loyola Marymount and then barely squeak by USF (needed OT), the Hoyas returned home over the weekend and again played a close game, this time beating Campbell by only eight points. They did lead by as many as 22, but that advantage had shrunk to as few as 4 pts in the final minute. Richmond is having a bit of a disappointing start to the season. The Spiders are 2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS and enter Wednesday on a three-game losing streak. Two of the losses were blowouts. Down in Ft. Myers, they lost by 16 to Loyola Chicago, then followed that up by blowing a late lead against Wyoming. A return home over the weekend seemed like it would get this team back on track, but instead they lost outright to Hampton, 86-66, as 11-point favorites. That huge misfire has obviously influenced tonight's spread pretty severely and I think we're getting a ton of value (at least several points) w/ the dog here. Richmond led Wyoming by as many as 11 in the second half before blowing the game and losing by two. I suspect the disappointment of that result contributed to what we saw Sunday against Hampton as the Spiders fell behind 18-4 and never led. Richmond has been favored in five of their six games, so the fact that they're 2-4 SU has to be viewed as a massive disappointment. But here's where they can at least gain some confidence by standing toe to toe w/ a "better-known" school. Richmond has revenge for a 6-pt home loss to G'town last year where the Hoyas shot the lights out (53.2% for the game). Even though the rematch is in D.C., I don't envision the Hoyas shooting that well again. The Spiders did lose third leading scorer Nick Sherod in the last game, but the team is almost guaranteed to improve its three-point shooting (went 3 of 21 vs. Hampton) even w/o him. Take the points. 10* Richmond | |||||||
11-27-18 | Nevada -5.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | Top | 79-65 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
10* Nevada (9:00 ET): This is a colossal revenge game for the 5th ranked team in the country. As soon I saw this matchup for Tuesday, I instantly went back to last March when these teams met in the Sweet 16. Nevada, the 7-seed, led by as many as 12 early, but could not hold the lead and eventually found itself down double digits in the 2H. The final score was 69-68 as Loyola-Chicago would go on to make an improbable Final Four run. It's been awhile, so I can only assume my analysis of that game is long since forgotten. I'll briefly rehash here by reminding you I was on Loyola (+1.5) as Nevada's poor defensive efficiency stuck out like a "sore thumb" last year. But the Wolf Pack are much improved in that area this year, not to mention #1 in the country in offensive efficiency (per KenPom). Playing for major revenge, I'll lay the points w/ Nevada in this rematch. For some, it will probably take some getting used to seeing Nevada so high in the national rankings. I'm here to say "get used to it." As it stands now, I have the Wolf Pack set to win more games this year than any other team in the country besides Gonzaga. (BTW, shame on the Pac 12 for not even having a team in the discussion for superiority out West). As I said earlier, this is the top offensive team in the country right now as they average 92.0 PPG and have won all six games by double digits. They just dropped 110 pts on UMass in the Final of the Las Vegas Holiday Invitational on Friday, shooting an incredible 67.4% from two-point range while also making 11 of 22 three-pointers. This team is as deep as any in the country right now. But the big difference between this Nevada team and last year is the defensive end of the floor. This year, they are allowing just under 70 PPG and rank a respectable 48th in defensive efficiency and are holding opponents to just 22.8% shooting from three-point range, which is key. Back in March, they allowed Loyola to shoot 55% for the game. That won't be happening again. The Ramblers aren't as strong a team this year as they lost three starters from the Final Four squad and have not played the most challenging of schedules either. Not only did they just lose to Boston College in Fort Myers, earlier in the year they dropped a home game to Furman. Nevada will - easily - be their toughest opponent to date. While the Wolf Pack don't force a lot of turnovers defensively, that issue is mitigated by them not turning it over much themselves and defending the 3-pt line well. 10* Nevada | |||||||
11-27-18 | Virginia Tech -1.5 v. Penn State | Top | 62-63 | Loss | -112 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
8* Virginia Tech (7:00 ET): Last night, I won w/ a road team (Nebraska) that I thought should be favored in this Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. Tonight, the road team I like is favored, only it's not by nearly enough. I'm also pivoting to the ACC school here as Va Tech comes in unbeaten and ranked #13 in the country. I suspect that many are suspicious of the Hokies, given we're not used to seeing them among the "blue bloods" of the sport. But Buzz Williams' team is most definitely "for real" as they've covered all five games so far and rank 7th nationally in offensive efficiency. I'll gladly lay the short number on the road here. Penn State has already dropped a couple of games, admittedly both of them very close decisions. They lost by two @ DePaul and by three to Bradley on a neutral court. Still, those results don't exactly bode well when getting set to face the #13 team in the country. Against Bradley, junior Lamar Stevens led the way w/ 27 points, his 5th consecutive 20+ pt effort. However, he got little help from his teammates, who combined to score just 29 points on 10 of 39 shooting. The depth issue in Happy Valley will soon be alleviated when Mike Watkins returns to the team. Watkins has yet to play this season due to an ongoing mental health issue. HC Patrick Chambers has said Watkins might play tonight, but he won't be enough to turn the tide in this Big 10 vs. ACC matchup. Va Tech has already beaten one Big 10 team this year, that being #19 Purdue, on their way to winning the Cancun Classic two weekends ago. They've since clobbered St. Francis (PA) 75-37. But even though they won by 38, that was actually only an 11-point game at halftime. But the Hokies were completely dominant over the final 20 minutes, holding the Red Flash to just 15 points. Tonight marks the Hokies' first "true" road game of the season, but I think they'll be up to the task. This team is legit as I've got them right around the same national ranking the pollsters do in my own personal power ratings. Penn State simply lacks the offensive firepower necessary to keep pace here. 8* Virginia Tech | |||||||
11-26-18 | Titans v. Texans -3.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:20 ET): Back in Week 2, these teams met and the Titans won 20-17 in Nashville. But a lot has changed since then. Houston actually started 0-3, but is now 7-3 SU and leads the division. I've got them favored in all but one of their remaining games (Week 16 at Philadelphia), so there's a pretty clear path for them to win the AFC South. But the first order of business is exacting some revenge on Tennessee. The Texans actually outgained the Titans 437-238 in that first meeting, so a case could be made that they were the better team that day. The game was decided by a Ryan Succop 31-yard field goal w/ one minute remaining. I don't see the Texans' seven-game win streak getting snapped Monday night. Lay the short number. It was two weeks ago that the Titans treated me quite nicely. They upset the Patriots, 34-10 as 6.5-pt underdogs. But that was at home. It was also the third straight Titans game I'd cashed a winning ticket. I had them plus the points in a cover vs. the Chargers (over in London) and also the Over when they appeared on MNF vs. Dallas two weeks ago. They beat the Cowboys 28-14 and then came another upset (over the Patriots). But just as the team seemed to be hitting its stride under 1st year HC Mike Vrabel, they laid a complete egg last week in a 38-10 loss at Indianapolis. This offense hasn't been particularly effective this year (28th in scoring) and only averages 16.3 PPG on the road. For me, the status of QB Marcus Mariota (elbow) is largely irrelevant to this play. (Though it would be nice to go against Blaine Gabbert. Houston hasn't exactly beaten a "murderer's row" during this 7-game win streak of theirs and all but two wins have been by 7 pts or less. But I think this has the potential to be one of their bigger wins - in terms of margin of victory - all year. This Titans offense really shouldn't scare anyone (check numbers above), but especially a Texans defense which is giving up just 19.7 PPG at home and has a top 10 pass rush. While both of these defenses are top six in yards per game allowed, Houston has a huge edge offensively. I realize that the Titans beat the Texans w/o Mariota back in Week 2, but with or w/o him here, I can't see them pulling off what would be their first season sweep of the Texans in a decade. 8* Houston | |||||||
11-26-18 | Wolves v. Cavs +6 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (7:05 ET): The Cavs have been kind to me twice in the past week, covering the entire 96 minutes against a pair of supposed heavyweights, Los Angeles and Houston. They lost the Lakers game, LeBron's much hyped return to Cleveland, but easily covered a drastically inflated number (+9) in a 109-105 final. I also had them Saturday night in a huge upset of Houston (were 10-pt dogs) here at home. In between, they pulled another upset, perhaps one of the biggest you'll see this entire NBA season. They entered Philly on Friday as 13-point dogs and one of the three teams in the league w/o a road win. The Sixers were undefeated at home. All the Cavs did was pull a 121-112 upset where they led by as many 15 in the 4th quarter. This is an undervalued team right now! Ironically, Minnesota was one of the other two teams w/o a road win heading into Friday night. All three teams (these two + Phoenix) got the job done that night, however. Minnesota won in Brooklyn, 112-102, but that's a team missing its leading scorer. The T'wolves then won again Saturday, 111-96 over lowly Chicago. But that was at home. I get that the Cavs have experienced their fair share of issues, but laying this many points w/ a Minnesota team that has just one road win seems like a classic case of putting the "cart before the horse." The T'wolves have just two wins this year by more than 10 points. When these teams met in the Twin Cities earlier this year, the Cavs were only 8.5-pt dogs and covered (ever so slightly) in a 131-123 loss. So you can see the value here. Now Cleveland have Kevin Love (former T'wolf!) for that first meeting. He led the team w/ 25 points. But Minnesota also still had Jimmy Butler (since traded to Philadelphia), who led his squad w/ 33 points. That was the second game of the year for both teams. The Cavs now lean on rookie Collin Sexton, who just scored a career-high 29 points Saturday vs. Houston. Minnesota is 5-2 SU since dealing Butler, including a 4-1 SU/ATS mark as a favorite. But they've never been asked to lay more than 2.5 pts on the road this year and Cleveland isn't substantially worse than most prior T'wolves' opponents. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
11-26-18 | Nebraska +4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 68-66 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
8* Nebraska (7:00 ET): This is the first game of the annual "Big 10-ACC Challenge" and these schools met in LY's event as well. The 2017 meeting also took place here in Death Valley w/ Clemson holding serve 60-58, though they did not come close to covering the 10.5-point spot. This year, the Cornhuskers are a much stronger team, one more than capable of pulling the upset here. In fact, my numbers say they should be favored here and are also a top 20 team in the country. Nebraska will be a player in the Big 10 this year, mark my words, and they'll help the conference here w/ a win in an event usually owned by the ACC. Take the points. This will be Nebraska's first "true" road game. They do have a loss already, to Texas Tech in the Hall of Fame Classic at Kansas City. But the Red Raiders are really good right now and ranked #3 in the country (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. I'm really not sure how the Red Raiders aren't in the Top 25 (should be after Monday). Clemson is (#16 as of this writing), but off a loss to another Nebraska school, that being Creighton. It was an 87-82 loss on Wednesday. The Tigers haven't played since. Meanwhile, Nebraska did get a chance to bounce back from its lone loss. In Lincoln, they clobbered Western Carolina over the weekend (Saturday), 73-49. In a two-point loss LY on this court, Nebraska missed 14 of 18 three-point attempts. That was essentially the difference in a game where neither side shot well overall. Clemson also had a massive edge in free throws (+15 in attempts, +13 in makes). Not so sure the Tigers can count on those same advantages being present this time around. Nebraska is averaging 80.5 PPG so far this season, but it's real strength is its defense, which ranks 4th nationally in scoring (51.7 PPG allowed). I realize that Clemson lost only one game on its home court this season, but it is 0-3 ATS here in Death Valley so far this season. Being left out of the NCAA Tournament (despite 22 wins) last year has this Cornhuskers team highly motivated coming into 2018-19. I'm higher on this team than most and look for them to justify my faith Monday night. 8* Nebraska | |||||||
11-26-18 | Wofford +9 v. South Carolina | Top | 81-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
10* Wofford (7:00 ET): For already the third time this season, Wofford gets a crack at a Power 5 school. They're 0-2 so far, but have taken on North Carolina and Oklahome. They actually got the Tar Heels at home (season opener!), but that's obviously one of the top teams in the country. Still, the Terriers only lost by 11. They lost by that same margin down in Norman, Oklahoma. South Carolina certainly isn't on the level of a UNC and I don't even have them at OU's level. Therefore, this number looks inflated. Wofford has topped 90 points in three games vs. lesser competition while South Carolina is 1-4 ATS w/ two SU losses. Take the points. Wofford got to host the Gamecocks LY and came up well short, 73-52 as 6.5-pt dogs. They shot poorly (34.7% overall!) while South Carolina went 11 of 23 from behind the arc. To call this a huge week in the history of the Wofford basketball program would be putting it mildly. After this game, they'll host East Tenn State in the SoCon opener (East Tenn St won Conf Tourney last season). Then it's a date w/ current #1 Kansas. But don't think for a second that Wofford is going to overlook South Carolina, an in-state opponent, as this represents a golden opportunity to knock off a P5 school. The Gamecocks did not play at all the week of Thanksgiving. Last time we saw them, they turned in easily their best performance to date, a 90-55 whitewashing of George Washington. The Gamecocks were 11.5-pt favorites, so it was a game they were expected to win comfortably. But I think that final margin of victory has had some unnecessary influence on this line. You do have to tip your cap to the way South Carolina defended against GW. They limited the Colonials to 28% shooting overall, including 4 of 27 in the 1H. They went into halftime w/ an incredible 56-18 lead. Things won't come that easy again the rest of this season and certainly not tonight against a mid-major that shoots the ball very well. South Carolina is just 5-15 ATS when playing w/ 7 or more days of rest. 10* Wofford | |||||||
11-25-18 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 27-13 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 49 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (1:00 ET): With the Patriots off both a loss (a bad one to the Titans) and a bye, the expection here will be for them to win in a blowout. The 3-7 Jets have little to play for, though they too are off their bye and a bad loss before it. Their offense is averaging less than 11 PPG during a four game losing streak. Before the bye, they were crushed 41-10 by a Bills team starting Matt Barkley at QB, as a 7-pt home favorite no less. Then again, the Patriots certainly didn't look the part of a 6.5-pt road favorite when they were soundly beaten by Tennessee, 34-10, two weeks ago. This line has all the makings of an overlay as New England has struggled away from home this year and this rivalry has a history of close games. Take the points. The past five meetings here at MetLife Stadium have all been decided by seven points or less w/ the Jets winning outright twice. Despite winning only two of the past 10 meetings overall, the Jets have managed to go 8-2 ATS, so the Patriots are consistently overvalued in this rivalry. New England is 0-5 ATS the L5 visits here and has certainly struggled on the road this year w/ bad losses to Jacksonville, Detroit and Tennessee. The only road win this year that came by more than seven points was against the hapless Bills and even that game saw the offense get held to just four field goals through three quarters. Down 18-6, Buffalo was driving late in the fourth quarter to make it a one-score game. But the Patriots got a fortunate pick-six from Derek Anderson to seal the game. The Titans provided a nice blueprint for how to beat New England. Clearly, it involves forcing Tom Brady out of the pocket and making him uncomfortable. This Jets defense should be able to do that, although it hasn't forced a single turnover the L4 weeks. The key will be whether or not the Jets can score enough points. It looks like Josh McCown may start at QB as rookie Sam Darnold is still hurt. I wouldn't mind the move anyway considering Darnold's stuggles so far. But what I most lean on is the fact that my power rankings have this spread at 7.5, making the Jets the biggest value bet on the board this season. 10* NY Jets | |||||||
11-25-18 | 49ers v. Bucs -2.5 | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 38 h 48 m | Show |
8* Tampa Bay (1:00 ET): The Bucs' offense has managed to gain more than 1,000 yds the last two weeks, yet somehow managed to lose both games. That "somehow" can be directly traced to eight turnovers and a QB carousel that has reached almost preposterous proportions. For those keeping score at home, it will be Jameis Winston starting this week. Winston was suspended for the first four games this season and Ryan Fitzpatrick did pretty well in his place. Well, at least for two games. Then Fitzmagic ran out of tricks, which happened to be the first game Winston was eligible to return. Unfortunately, "Famous Jameis" was no better than a struggling Fitzpatrick so Dirk Koetter (a desperate HC, if there ever was one) went back to Fitzpatrick. That didn't last long as Fitzpatrick was bad last week and was removed for Winston, who ALMOST led a big comeback against the Giants. As sad as this all sounds, I expect the Winston-led Bucs to play well this week. We know the offense can move the ball (and even sometimes score). Two weeks ago, TB had one of the more confounding box scores in recent memory as they outgained Washington 501-286, yet lost 16-3. (They were -4 in turnovers). Last week, they outgained the Giants 510-359, yet were again -4 in TO's and lost 38-35 (at one point, trailed by 17). But with Winston under center, the offense scored touchdowns on four consecutive drives. Winston completed 12 of 16 passes for 199 yards. He did throw one INT, but w/ 23 seconds remaining. Bottom line is that Winston is going to be the more consistent option for the Bucs QB, at least for the rest of 2018. I think San Francisco, specifically QB Nick Mullens, is still getting too much residual credit for one performance against the terrible Raiders. The follow-up act wasn't very good as the Niners lost at home to the Giants, 27-23. Mullens wasn't nearly as good the second time around, throwing a couple of picks. Mullens is of course the third different starting QB for San Fran after both Garoppolo and Beatherd were lost to season-ending injuries. The Niners have yet to win a road game this year, largely due to giving up over 28 PPG. Two things really work in Tampa Bay's favor here. One is the game is at home where they're a more respectable 2-2 SU this year. Number two is while the Bucs have the most TO's in the league, San Fran has the fewest takeaways. 8* Tampa Bay | |||||||
11-24-18 | Rockets v. Cavs +10.5 | Top | 108-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
10* Cleveland (7:35 ET): Interestingly enough, there were three NBA teams that hadn't won a single road game going into yday. All three (Minnesota, Cleveland, Phoenix) won on the road Friday! It's a debate as to which was the bigger shocker: Phoenix winning at Milwaukee, or Cleveland winning in Philly. The Cavs were facing a Sixers team that was unbeaten at home and looked like the hungrier team, jumping out to a 22-8 lead early in the game and shooting 52.7% overall, including 11 of 22 from three-point range. Perhaps you could make the case Philly was still a little "full" from Thanksgiving, but tip your cap to Cleveland for what was their most impressive peformance of the season to date. Houston also played last night, but they lost in Detroit, 116-111 in OT. The fact that the game went to overtime is a bit of a "sore subject" for me as it allowed the game to go Over the total and I had Under (was 98-98 at the end of regulation). For the Rockets, the loss snapped a five-game win streak. Four of the wins had come at home, however, including one over those same Pistons (by 2) on Wednesday. With Carmelo Anthony persona non grata, the Rockets have been playing a lot better of late, but they're being asked to lay a big number on the road here and they've actually still been outscored this season. You also have to factor in the back to back. While Cleveland is definitely not a playoff team, I've been impressed w/ how they've looked the L2 games. I had them here at home against the Lakers Weds night. That was LeBron's much hyped return and the Cavs easily covered that one. The fact that this team has led the Lakers and Sixers for almost all of the 96 minutes (they did wilt late vs. LA) has to be taken into consideration. So does the number, which is huge. As bad as Cleveland has looked at times this year, they've only been a double-digit dog three times and all were on the road. I think we have to be a little careful in pronouncing "Houston's back" after all the trouble they had at the start of the season. 10* Cleveland | |||||||
11-24-18 | Kansas State +13.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 38-42 | Win | 100 | 30 h 19 m | Show |
10* Kansas State (7:00 ET): I think it might shock a lot of people to find out that Kansas State has beaten Iowa State 10 straight times. However, during that win streak it's been the Cyclones covering the majority of the games. The team from Ames has covered each of the last four meetings, which have been decided by a total of 13 points. With the setup here being so contradictory to past history, I suspect the result will be too. The most likely result here is an Iowa State win, but failure to cover. Both of these teams are better suited when in the underdog role. For Iowa State, they are in an emotional letdown spot after losing at home to Texas last week. That defeat ended any hope of the Cyclones playing for a Big XII Championship. Even last season when Iowa State was overachieving to get to 8-5 SU, they lost in Manhattan, 20-19 as a 2-pt dog. Now, they did lose RB Montgomery to an injury and gave up the game-winning TD w/ no time remaining on the clock. Certainly, they'll be out for revenge, but it's tough to like this team as such an overwhelming favorite. They are just 1-2 ATS so far when laying points in Ames and that one cover was a bit of a lucky one as they got a garbage-time TD against Texas Tech. The 26-14 loss to Texas last Saturday night could certainly have put a "damper" on the Cyclones' collective spirits as I think playing for a Big XII Championship was far more important to this group than getting revenge against Kansas State. Another reason to like the points here is that the game figures to be so low-scoring. Just look at the O/U line. Both teams come in w/ top 25 defenses. Kansas State has been blown out three times this year, but only by top 15 teams (Miss St, WVU, Oklahoma). They are 5-0 ATS as a dog otherwise, including two outright wins, one of them coming last week against Texas Tech. The Wildcats have done a good job getting to the cusp of bowl eligibility and need a win here to get to the postseason. So they won't go down w/o a fight for HC Snyder. The last three games have seen this Wildcats' defense allow an average of just 12.3 PPG. Iowa State is only outscoring its opponents by 4.5 PPG this season. The dog should be the more motivated side and has history on its side, knowing that it has dominated this rivalry. 10* Kansas State | |||||||
11-24-18 | St. Joe's v. William & Mary +4.5 | Top | 85-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
8* William & Mary (4:00 ET): W&M comes into this game on a four-game losing streak, including a home defeat at the hands of Radford Tuesday. That last loss sounds worse than it really is as not only Radford is going to be a player in the Big South this year (top team), but W&M was incredibly short-handed for the contest, down three starters. Still, oddsmakers had the game listed as pick 'em even though the Tribe were starting three freshman. Now it isn't good that W&M allowed Radford to shoot 58% for the contest or that they rank outside the top 300 (per KenPom) in defensive efficiency. But, the Tribe can score as is evident by placing in the Top 60 (per KenPom) on the offensive end. Last year's team averaged 85.0 PPG, which was 4th best in the country. St. Joe's is coming off a loss in the third place game of the Myrtle Beach Invitational last weekend. After clobbering Wake Forest in the first game (won by 20 pts), the Hawks went down in the next two, losing to UCF and WVU. The West Virginia loss is certainly excusable, but losing by to 20 UCF wasn't the best of looks. Also, there has to be a concern over the Hawks lack of defense in those two games as they face a William & Mary team that will definitely want to pick up the pace. Not only did St. Joe's give up 97 points to West Virginia, but they also let UCF shoot 55% from the field. William & Mary's health is obviously important to this game, but it looks as if at least two of the three starters that missed the Radford game will return here. This is a young team, but the freshman getting so much playing time against Radford will be beneficial for the future. The loss to Radford snapped a 23-game home non-conference win streak for the Tribe. This is an explosive team that should thrive in the underdog role Saturday afternoon. They were also short-handed against Notre Dame last week and still managed to cover that game. Besides Radford, the Tribe's other three losses all came in "true" road games and one (to UIC) was by just five points. Don't be surprised at an upset here. 8* William & Mary | |||||||
11-24-18 | Pittsburgh v. Miami-FL -5.5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 91 h 53 m | Show |
10* Miami FL (3:30 ET): All signs point towards "the U" getting the job done here. Sure, they'd lost four in a row before last week's convincing 38-14 over Virginia Tech. And they were on a 5-game ATS losing streak as well. Opponent Pitt arrives in the Coral Gables finale riding a four-game (SU) win streak and has covered five in a row. But let's look at the situation as opposed to recent form. The situation will call for some major revenge to be exacted as the Canes, ranked #2 in the entire country at the time, were upended 24-14 LY at Heinz Field (at Pittsburgh), ending their own 10-game unbeaten run (it was their 1st loss of the season and the start of a three-game slide to end the year). Just like Pitt here, Miami knew it was already ACC Championship Game bound. They were also severely beat up and down multiple key offensive playmakers. Miami gets its revenge (and them some) Saturday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium. So Pitt has the disadvantage of coming into this game knowing full well it has a huge date set w/ #2 (and unbeaten) Clemson (sound familiar?) next week in the ACC Championship Game. They clinched that spot by going on the road last Saturday and beating Wake Forest, 34-13 as 5.5-pt chalk. They were down at the half, 10-6, but outscored the Demon Deacons 28-3 after that w/ QB Kenny Pickett throwing three touchdowns and a career-best 316 yards. It was just the second road win of the year for the Panthers as this is still the only FBS team to lose to North Carolina this season. That loss seems like its "eons ago" as Pat Narduzzi's team has "circled the wagons" to win 5 of its last 6 games. Just to illustrate how no one saw Pitt coming; last week was just the second time they'd been favored since September. They're back to the more customary role of dog here, as they should be. Miami has been favored in every game this season, so they've been a disappointment. But it doesn't mean that the Hurricanes still aren't the better team here. I have them, not Pitt, ranked as the top team in the Coastal and the 2nd best team in the ACC overall. In fact, I don't have Pitt ranked in my top 40 teams in the country! After four straight tough losses, we finally saw what Miami was capable of last week in a 38-14 destruction of Va Tech, in Blacksburg no less. The defense shut the Hokies out completely in the 2nd half and QB Perry was responsible for 3 TDs. Remembering what Pitt did to them in 2017, Miami will be ready this year, particularly their defense which is giving up only 14.8 PPG at home. 10* Miami | |||||||
11-24-18 | SMU v. Tulsa +3 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 27 h 49 m | Show |
8* Tulsa (3:30 ET): This line absolutely reeks and it's almost as if the oddsmakers are begging you to lay the points w/ SMU. The Ponies were kind to us a few weeks ago when - as a two touchdown UNDERDOG - they beat Houston by 14 points. At the time, I noted in the analysis that this was a team on the rise and sure enough they followed that win up w/ a 62-point effort against hapless UConn. But things didn't go nearly as well when I packed them last week as they lost at home to Memphis, 28-18. That leaves SMU needing a win here against 2-win Tulsa to become bowl eligible. Laying a field goal or less sounds like an ideal situation, but this has all the makings of a trap game and I'm going to call for the Golden Hurricane to pull the upset! Take the points. Tulsa's only conference win came against UConn. It's also their only win against a FBS opponent all year. But it's not as if the Golden Hurricane haven't been competitive at times this year. They lost at Texas by only a touchdown. I've played them only once and it was an easy cover on a Friday night vs. USF, a game they led most of the way and probably should have won. Since losing that game, it's been a downhill slide, but believe it or not, Tulsa has actually been outscored by fewer points per game than SMU has this season. Last week against Navy, they had trouble stopping the triple option, but it's a very different type of offense that they'll be going up against this week. At home, Tulsa has been far more competitive this year, having both the edge in scoring and total yardage over the opposition. I believe the Golden Hurricane will be able to run the ball effectively in this matchup. They already run for over 200 yards per game and as we saw last week, the SMU defense is very shaky against the run. They're giving up over 200 YPG on the ground, which is 102nd in the country. Tulsa's run defense is actually worse, but SMU doesn't like to run the ball that much, so that won't be that big of an issue Saturday afternoon. SMU's defense gives up 36.0 PPG for the year and 42.4 PPG on the road. The home team has won three straight in this conference rivalry and SMU has not covered either time it was a favorite this year. Look for Tulsa to treat this is as "their bowl game" and shock a lot of people. 8* Tulsa | |||||||
11-24-18 | Wyoming v. New Mexico +7 | Top | 31-3 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
8* New Mexico (2:30 ET): Wyoming pulled off an improbable cover last Saturday, scoring three late touchdowns (all in the final 4:32) to win 35-27 as 2.5-point home favorites. As far as the betting window was concerned, the decisive TD came with 45 seconds left after an Air Forxe turnover. Full disclosure: I had Air Force. So there's obviously an emotional component to me wanting to fade Wyoming a second straight week. But there's also a lot of numbers-based logic as this is still a bad team, one that has problems scoring (19.7 PPG) and they are barely inside my top 100 teams in the country. I realize that they need this game to become bowl eligible, but so do the oddsmakers and as a result we have an inflated number. Take the points w/ New Mexico here. The Lobos are only playing for pride in this final regular season game. Bob Davie's team comes into Saturday's last home game as losers of six in a row and at 4-7 SU overall. But if you recall, earlier this month, I cashed them plus the points here in Albuquerque against San Diego State. They actually led the Aztecs much of the way before wilting late in the fourth quarter. This is a much weaker foe that they're getting this week and there should be some level of motivation based on it being the final home game for the outgoing Senior Class. Over the L6 games, New Mexico has had to play the top four teams in the Mountain West - Utah State, Fresno State, San Diego State and last week, Boise State. So the losing skid doesn't really bother me. I still believe this line ought to be closer to a pick 'em. Wyoming was a much better team last year when they beat New Mexico 42-3. That game was also in Laramie and they had Josh Allen at QB. The last time they visited New Mexico, their defense allowed a school-record 568 yards rushing. This is a defense that still doesn't have suspended DT Youhanna Ghaifan and gave up 362 yards rushing to Air Force. The offense's inability to score will catch up with it here. The late flurry against Air Force is not indicative of Wyoming's season. They also lost their starting QB and RB to injury last week! The Cowboys' three-game win streak has come exclusively against teams w/ losing records and while New Mexico fits that same bill, they should be competitive in this spot and cover the spread in a low-scoring affair. 8* New Mexico | |||||||
11-23-18 | Cal Poly +9 v. Portland | Top | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
8* Cal Poly (10:00 ET): Portland is the host team in this tourney and won its first game, 73-56 over USC Upstate. It was their third win in a row and fourth of the season. But most of the wins haven't been all that impressive. Two were against non-board teams and they allowed over 100 pts in the season opener vs. Multnomah Bible College, a NAIA school that went 22 of 50 from three-point range. There was another close call at Cal State Northridge, whom the Pilots downed 80-77, but only after trailing by as many as 18 pts. So what I'm saying is that I really don't trust this team laying this many points, even if they are the tourney hosts. Cal Poly is a conference rival of Cal State Northridge. So maybe they had a chance to dial up the Matadors' coaching staff for a scouting report. Even if they didn't, look for the Mustangs to keep up in this game. They've lost three in a row, so motivation should be high here. Two of those three losses were to Pac 12 schools, Arizona and Wazzu, so no shame there. The most recent one came here in Portland in an ugly 54-42 game w/ Texas State. The Mustangs actually led the game at the half, 23-16, but went scoreless for nine minutes in the 2H and that was the difference in the game. Cal Poly has not been a good ATS team the last three seasons, going just 18-39 vs. the number overall. That includes a hideous 1-14 mark after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game. But I'll call for them to buck the trend here. The issues against Texas State were a) getting dominated on the boards and b) shooting only 3 of 16 from three-point range. Both of those issues are easily correctable facing Portland. First off, the Pilots aren't a great rebounding team. Two, we already talked about their issues defending the three-point line. Take the points here. 8* Cal Poly | |||||||
11-23-18 | Canucks +1.5 v. Sharks | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Vancouver (9:05 ET): The Canucks are in a pretty bad way right now as they've dropped seven in a row. But four of those seven losses have come by just one goal, opening up the opportunity to exploit the puck line tonight. Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking Vancouver +1.5. I actually think there's a pretty good chance they pull the upset tonight in San Jose, but just to be careful we'll go w/ the added insurance of the PL. Six of the seven losses during Vancouver's current slide have come in regulation. But this was a team that also started the season a solid 10-6-1. They've had to play a lot on the road recently, many of the games coming out East. It's not like San Jose has been a favorite destination of theirs as they've lost five in a row here and are just 1-9 vs. the Sharks overall the L3 seasons. But San Jose has its own set of struggles going on right now. Coming out of the Thanksgiving holiday, I think this sets up as the perfect ambush spot for Vancouver. Remember, all we need is for them to be tied at the end of regulation. San Jose lost here at home to Edmonton Wednesday, 4-3. The Sharks might be closer to the top of the Pacific Division than the Canucks are, but the gap between the two teams is just four points. San Jose has given up at least four goals in three of its last four games. So expecting them to win by more than one goal seems like putting the "cart before the horse." The Sharks have just one win by more than one goal this month. They are 3-4 SU against teams w/ a losing record this year. 8* Puck Line Vancouver (+1.5) | |||||||
11-23-18 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -19 | Top | 6-56 | Win | 100 | 72 h 2 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (3:30 ET): Each team here experienced a result last week that they're not very used to. For East Carolina, it was a win and a definitive one at that, 55-21 over sorry UConn (Pirates were -17.5). Consider ECU had been favored only one other time against a FBS foe this season and they didn't cover, beating Old Dominion by just two points. Cincinnati, meanwhile, is off a humbling setback at the hands of unbeaten UCF. Luke Fickell's Bearcats were in the wrong place at the wrong time Saturday night as ESPN College Gameday was in Orlando and it was a raucous atmosphere, leading to a 38-13 defeat. Still, it was just Cincy's second loss of the season and for East Carolina, last week was only their third win of the season. So that's the backdrop heading into this regular season finale. East Carolina has nothing left to play for as bowl eligibilty is out the window. They did give the Seniors a nice win in the final home game, so I can just assume that this game will carry little priority for the Pirates, who have played better than the record shows, but that's of little consequence as they head to a third straight three-win season under HC Scottie Montgomery. The road has been unkind to the Pirates as they're 0-3 SU away from Greenville, averaging only 12.3 PPG. This looks like a total mismatch facing a Bearcats team that is 5-0 SU at home, winning by an average margin of 26 PPG. Cincy has a very good defense (they allow only 17.0 PPG) and I just don't see how East Carolina is going to score very much in this game. Though they lost by 25 pts on the scoreboard, I thought Cincinnati played a lot better against UCF than the final score showed. Total yardage was relatively even and while one of the Bearcats two scores came from the defense, it was their own three turnovers that killed any chance of winning. While it might sound tough to recoup from a loss like that, playing for a 10-win season is certainly a big enough deal. The Bearcats also have some payback on the mind after they suffered a humiliating defeat LY in Greenville, 48-20 as three-point favorites. But that was when the Pirates had Gardner Minshew at QB and he's now plying his trade in greener pastures for Wazzu. Minshew threw for 444 yds in LY's meeting, at the time a career-high for him. He's not around anymore to save ECU. 8* Cincinnati | |||||||
11-23-18 | Nebraska v. Iowa -9.5 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 33 m | Show |
10* Iowa (12:00 ET): The Scott Frost era obviously got off to a dubious beginning w/ the first ever 0-6 start in Lincoln. Tip your cap for the way Frost has been able to right the Nebraska ship over the last month w/ the Cornhuskers winning four of their last five games, the only loss coming at Ohio State. They are also now on a seven-game ATS win streak. Truthfully, things were never as bad as they looked w/ four of the team's seven losses this year coming by five points or less. Next year, Nebraska will be able to make waves in the Big 10 West. But it's still 2018 and my power rankings aren't quite that impressed with this Cornhuskers team. Meanwhile, they (meaning power rankings) love Iowa, who also happens to be far better than its record shows. I have zero hesitation about laying the points Friday afternoon in Iowa City in what is my favorite spot of the year! Outside the top 6-7 teams in the country, it's a real "crapshoot" ranking who the best teams are in College Football this year. I think there are a number of 4-loss teams deserving of being called one of the top 15 in the country and I happen to count Iowa among them. Three of the Hawkeyes' four losses have been in one-score games, the exception being a Sat night home game vs. Wisconsin where they actually led going into the 4th quarter and gave up a "meaningless" TD in the final 30 seconds to lose by 11. Last weekend, the Hawkeyes snapped a three-game losing streak in resounding fashion by handing Illinois its worst defeat in program history, 63-0. That was on the road, mind you. While Iowa was busy winning 63-0, Nebraska squeaked out a very ugly 9-6 win over Michigan State. All three field goals came in the 4th quarter on drives that never exceeded 36 yards or seven plays. Thus, it's pretty difficult to imagine this Cornhuskers' offense doing much of anything against an even stingier Iowa defense. (More on that in a second). This game is in Iowa City and the home folk should be fired up. The Hawkeyes have beaten the Cornhuskers three straight years, the last two wins both coming by double digits. Nebraska has not won a road game all season, going 0-4 and allowing 41.7 PPG. While Iowa has somehow lost twice this year in Kinnick Stadium, they're giving up an average of just 11.0 points in six games here. Take away that late Wisconsin TD and no visitor has scored more than 21 pts here with five being held to 14 points or less. An impressive win here could land the Hawkeyes in a more marquee bowl game next month. As a favorite this year, Iowa is 7-1 SU and ATS. Plus they have covered six of the last eight times they've been a 3.5 to 10 pt favorite. To me, Iowa is definitely the best team in the Big 10 West this year. 10* Iowa | |||||||
11-22-18 | Falcons +13.5 v. Saints | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 35 m | Show |
8* Atlanta (8:20 ET): Playing against the Saints can be hazardous to one's health these days and I found that out the hard way on Sunday as I made the big-time mistake of taking the Eagles. New Orleans beat the Super Bowl Champs 48-7 (game did stay Under!) as seven-point favorites to improve to 9-1 SU/8-2 ATS on the season. They've covered eight in a row, a streak that probably has them on top of everyone's power rankings (I know they're #1 in mine). But as great as the Saints are, this is a pretty insane number for them to be laying against the division rival Falcons. Obviously an adjustment had to be made by the oddsmakers after last week's result, but I don't think for a second that Atlanta is six points worse than Philly. In fact, they're a better team at the stage of the game. I can say the Falcons are better than the Eagles, but the reality is both teams are 4-6 SU. That said, the Falcons are better and have the benefit of already playing the Saints earlier in the year. Now they lost, 43-37, but were actually 1.5-pt favorites in that game and it went to overtime. Atlanta even had the lead late before Drew Brees tied the game up w/ a 7-yd TD run w/ just over a minute to go in regulation, capping an 81-yard drive. That was in Week 3 and the Saints haven't lost or failed to cover a game since. But I don't think the Falcons should be considered a full touchdown worse now than they were in September. Sure, they've lost six games, but four of those were by six points or fewer. Sunday's 22-19 home loss to Dallas was pretty brutal for the Falcons as they now probably have to win out to have any shot at making the playoffs. I certainly don't think the team is just going to roll over and quit, not after coming back from a 19-9 deficit to tie the game against the Cowboys and not against their biggest division rival in a national TV game. Losing each of the last two weeks (as favorites) has definitely inflated this number along w/ the Saints winning ways. But this Falcons team is rarely an underdog (happened only twice this season) and they've never been getting more than 3.5 pts against any other opponent. There have been only four times in the Matt Ryan era (2008-) where they've been a double digit dog and they've covered every time. 8* Atlanta | |||||||
11-22-18 | Texas v. North Carolina -7 | Top | 92-89 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
10* North Carolina (7:30 ET): This game is part of the Continental Tire Las Vegas Invitational in Vegas and the Tar Heels are forced to make the trip w/o starting PG Seventh Woods as he sustained a concussion in practice on Tuesday. But it's important to note that HC Roy Williams has five players averaging double figures so far and Woods isn't one of them. Yes, he's an important piece, but he only averages 2.8 PPG, which is 11th best on the team. As per usual, this is a deep team coming from Chapel Hill and they've already topped 100 pts three times, albeit against much lesser competition. You'd think a team like UNC might be overvalued heading into its first real test of the season, but the opposite actually holds true here due to the Woods' injury. Lay the points. Texas, like North Carolina, comes to Las Vegas unbeaten. The Longhorns are 4-0, having already survived an overtime test from Arkansas earlier in the year. Shaka Smart's team is not nationally ranked and my own power rankings confirm they shouldn't be as I've got them just on the outskirts of the top 40. I've already played against them one time already, that being a horrible spot vs. LA Monroe, which was the game after they beat Arkansas in OT. The 'Horns never came close to covering the 19-point spot there, winning only 65-55. They've since recorded their first ATS win of the season as they destroyed The Citadel 97-69 last Friday. The long layoff coming into this Tournament doesn't look like a good thing for Texas, however. They're 0-6 ATS the L6 times playing w/ five or six days rest. Strangely, Texas has had UNC's number through the years. Roy Williams is just 1-6 SU/ATS vs. the Longhorns as the coach of the Tar Heels, but that record should change for the better after tonight. Were Woods healthy, I would guess this line would be double digits. Missing your starting PG is a big deal, but I think the oddsmakers have overadjusted. While Texas is 1-3 ATS, UNC is 3-1-1 ATS despite being favored by double digits in every game. Their only ATS loss came last time out in a 101-76 win over St. Francis (PA) where they were 27-pt chalk. I've got the Tar Heels ranked right behind rival Duke as the #2 team in the country. Too much scoring for Texas to keep up, in my opinion. 10* North Carolina | |||||||
11-22-18 | Redskins +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 23-31 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
10* Washington (4:30 ET): In the span of roughly one hour last Sunday, the entire landscape of the NFC East changed. The Redskins, who came into the day w/ a 6-3 SU record and in first place, lost starting QB Alex Smith for the rest of the season due to a gruesome leg injury. That's not all they lost on Sunday though as they also dropped a game to the Houston Texans, 23-21 at home. While that was taking place, the Cowboys came from behind to beat the Falcons (in Atlanta), 22-19, for a second straight HUGE road win (won at Philly the week prior). Now the perception is that the division is Dallas' to lose and because of the Smith injury, they're big favorites on Thanksgiving Day. I think this line is a classic overreaction to an injury and will grab the points w/ Washington. My own power rankings indicate this should be about a 4-point spread. I don't think that going from Smith to Colt McCoy at QB should move the line much, if at all, and certainly not by more than a field goal. I thought McCoy came in and played well against the Texans, considering the circumstances. TE Jordan Reed became a bigger part of the passing game w/ McCoy under center. McCoy entered when Washington was down 10 and engineered two scoring drives to get his team the lead for a brief time. You also have to remember that Washington has a pretty good defense, one that allows just 19.8 PPG. The only teams to score more than 23 pts against the Redskins this year are the Saints & Falcons. Dallas lost the first meeting w/ Washington, 20-17, thanks to the usual Jason Garrett ineptitude and a missed FG on the final play. I am very interested to see how the Cowboys perform here on the heels of two big upset wins on the road. They've failed to cover each of the last three times they've been favored, losing two of the games outright. This will be the most points they've been asked to lay in any game so far this season and it comes against a division rival that's already beaten them once before. The Cowboys offense is only averaging 20.3 PPG, so in what should be a low-scoring division game, taking the points sure seems like the way to go. The Redskins are a money-making 6-1 ATS as underdogs already this season. 10* Washington | |||||||
11-22-18 | Colorado State v. Air Force -14 | Top | 19-27 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 3 m | Show |
10* Air Force (3:30 ET): The Flyboys fell victim to one of the worst beats of the year Saturday in Laramie. Since I was on them, allow me to recount the tale of woe. Up 27-14 on Wyoming (w/ just under five minutes remaining), the Falcons were getting 2.5 and managed to blow the cover. They allowed three touchdowns to a Wyoming offense that had lost BOTH its starting QB and RB early in the game. The final score (27 yard run) came with less than a minute to go in a situation where a simple tackle would have ended the game (and there should have been holding called on Wyoming anyway). That loss cost the AFA any shot of being bowl eligible, putting them in a pretty tough spot Thanksgiving afternoon. But fortunately for them, the opponent is in just as bad a situation, if not worse. Colorado State almost pulled off what would have been a shocking upset of #23 Utah State Saturday night. At home, they came from behind and scored what appeared to be the game-winning TD w/ no time left on a 34-yard throw from QB Collin Hill to WR Preston Williams. Unfortuantely, upon further review, the touchdown was negated when it was ruled Williams had stepped out of bounds before catching the ball. For the Rams, playing their final home game, a win would have been the highlight of a lost season. Instead, it just became their fourth straight loss and eighth defeat of this season. This was a team I played against multiple times early in the year as I felt this would be a down year in Ft. Collins. Now I'll look to conclude by fading them in the final regular season game. To me, this spread needs to be closer to three touchdowns rather than two. Air Force has won the L2 battles for the Ram-Falcon Trophy, including a 45-28 upset (as 10-pt dogs) in Ft. Collins LY. As you can tell from the spread, Colo State is a significantly weaker team in 2018. While the Rams did outgain Utah State LW, 506-310, that was at home. On the road, CSU has been a disaster, giving up 45.6 PPG and I'm just going to assume their defense will want no part of the AFA rushing attack in a meaningless game. Air Force has run for over 800 yds in the L2 games and is +14.2 PPG in Colorado Springs this year. While bowl eligibility is off the table, at least they can send the Seniors out w/ a win in the final home game. 10* Air Force | |||||||
11-21-18 | Lakers v. Cavs +9.5 | Top | 109-105 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (8:05 ET): For the second time in less than a decade, LeBron James has left Cleveland's hoops scene a barren wasteland as the Cavaliers come into this much-hyped showdown w/ the worst record in the league at 2-13 straight up. However, unlike when he bolted for Miami in 2010, don't expect James to be winning NBA titles anytime soon w/ this current Lakers squad. While there are certainly signs of progress in LA (they've won 5 of their last 6 games), they remain a money-draining 6-10 ATS on the year and this is a big number that they're laying out on the road. Right now, I do NOT project the Lakers to be a playoff team in the Western Conference. The Cavs should definitely be ready for this game. Not only is it a much-hyped game with the franchise's best ever player returning, but they haven't really played much over the last week. In the last six days, Cleveland has had to play only once. That was Monday and while they lost to Detroit, 113-102, they very nearly rallied to "steal" the cover (were +9.5) in the end. One can only assume that the team's full focus has been on this game for awhile now. They've been playing short-handed, but I also expect LeBron to "take it easy" on his former mates. For the 13th time in his career, James scored 50+ points on Sunday, finishing w/ 51 in a 113-97 rout of his "other" former team, Miami. While Cleveland hasn't played much recently, the Lakers have. This will be LA's third road game in five nights, all out East. They were upset in Orlando over the weekend, giving up 130 points. Sunday's win over Miami aside, the Lakers are generally not blowing teams out this season as they have four wins by four points or less and just three by double digits. This number is inflated because of the hype surrounding James and the perception of Cleveland. The Lakers will most likely win here, but not by as much as the oddsmakers are expecting. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
11-21-18 | Richmond -4 v. Wyoming | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
10* Richmond (5:00 ET): Wyoming is a team that I've already targeted multiple times this season and I've been successful on every occasion. The first was the season opener vs. UC-Santa Barbara when they lost by 10 as six-point favorites. That may end up as one of the worst lines set by the oddsmakers all year. The next time I faded the Cowboys was last Friday, again at home, facing Niagara. The Pokes lost outright yet again, this time falling 72-67 as 7.5-pt chalk. They're now 0-5 ATS on the season after losing 88-76 to Boston College on Monday, a game they were NOT "supposed" to win as they came in as eight-point underdogs. This game takes place in Ft. Myers, Florida and will be the second game for both Richmond and Wyoming here. I already mentioned that Wyoming lost to BC on Monday, well, that same night saw Richmond fall to Loyola-Chicago by 16 points. We all remember the Ramblers making it to the Final Four last Spring, but that was still a disappointing setback for Richmond as they were just seven-point underdogs in the contest. The Spiders come into today's game at 2-2 SU overall, having also lost to Longwood in the season opener. But they've shot well since that defeat, making almost 55% of their field goal attempts the L3 games! The problem against Loyola was the defense as they permitted the Ramblers to shoot a ridiculous 61% from the field. Wyoming won't be shooting that well Wednesday as their field goal percentage for the year is just 40.2. The Cowboys were picked to finish 7th in the 11-team Mt West before the season and look to be worse than projected as they are already short-handed (two players injured) in addition to losing four of the top five scorers from last year's team. The Pokes are also incredibly deficient on the defensive end, which is bad news against a Richmond squad that is shooting the ball very well right now. Look for the Spiders to run away with this one as Wyoming looks even worse on the defensive end than they were a season ago. 10* Richmond | |||||||
11-20-18 | Green Bay +21.5 v. Oregon | Top | 72-83 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
8* WI-Green Bay (10:00 ET): It's been an impressive run so far out on the West Coast for Green Bay w/ them upsetting Eastern Washington and then taking care of Morehead State. Tonight, the task is far tougher as they head down to Oregon, but I think the Phoenix will be up for it. They're getting a lot of points here against a team in prime letdown mode following a big win. This is the end of the non-bracketed 2K Empire Classic, an event which has seen GB play two "true" road games already and go a perfect 2-0 ATS in them. The last game (vs. Morehead State) may have been the most impressive performance to date as the Phoenix led by double digits most of the second half in a game where they were a slight underdog. I'll take the points here. Oregon is nationally ranked (#21) and I'm not going to disagree w/ the pollsters on that. But this 2K Empire Classic Event has not been all "wine and roses." They lost to Iowa in Madison Square Garden last week, 77-69, a game in which the Ducks shot just 37.1% from the floor. They never led and were down 11 at halftime. Now compare that to Green Bay's performance against the Hawkeyes, which came in Iowa City, where the Phoenix were down by only one point entering halftime. After losing to Iowa, Oregon has since rebounded w/ an 80-65 win over Syracuse, also in MSG. They were better in all facets in that game, namely holding the Orange to just 35.3% shooting. But don't think for a second that result didn't affect this line, which now looks to be inflated. Both of these teams have beaten Eastern Washington, Oregon doing so in much more lopsided fashion, but for them it was a home game while Green Bay had to go to Cheney to get the win. The Phoenix are 3-0 ATS their last three games and the two SU losses they have suffered so far have come by a total of 15 pts. The Ducks will be their toughest opponent to date and this is a third consecutive game out West in a five-day span. The win over Eastern Washington was an overtime game as well. But this is just too many points to lay if you're Oregon, which will have to deal w/ a full-court press that forced Iowa into 17 turnovers. Also, Green Bay has topped 80 points in three straight games, so it's going to be really tough to score enough to cover a big number like this against them. 8* WI-Green Bay | |||||||
11-20-18 | Clippers +1 v. Wizards | Top | 118-125 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
8* LA Clippers (7:05 ET): The Wizards are such a dumpster fire right now that I'm more than willing to look past the fact the Clippers are in the second night of a back to back here. Reports are coming in that everyone is on trade block in Washington and it's already been confirmed that John Wall and Bradley Beal have had to be reprimanded for verbally berating the team's coach and general manager in a public setting. Another report surfaced that the players on the team simply "don't like each other." So that's the backdrop for Tuesday night's game as the Wizards come in at a very disappointing 5-11 SU on the season while also owning the league's worst ATS record (4-11-1). While the Wizards have been a massive disappointment, the Clippers have been a pleasant surprise so far. Last night's come from behind effort in Atlanta was the Clips' fifth straight victory, giving them an 11-5 SU mark on the year. This current five-game run has seen them cover the spread every time while the Over is also a perfect 5-0. Last night, they did have to rally from a 15-point second half deficit to beat Atlanta 127-119. Obviously, that requires a lot of energy, but the key here is that this team is deep. Four reserves scored in double digits last night, led by Montrezl Harrell's 25 pts. The Clips are a top five team in offensive efficiency right now and should have no problems scoring on a Wizards team that is 27th in defensive efficiency and 29th in points allowed. While the Clippers have won five in a row as well as seven of its last eight, Washington has dropped B2B games, both here at home. The last one was even worse than it looked as they trailed Portland by 19 entering the 4th quarter, which is when beleaguered HC Scott Brooks benched his starters for the rest of the game. Not that it matters much, but Dwight Howard continues to be limited due to an ongoing glute injury. The Wizards are not shooting well from three-point range (32.7%), which is a problem in today's NBA. The only other time the Clippers have had to play a back to back this season, they won the second game, 116-110 in Miami. Even w/o second-leading scorer Gallinari and w/o rest, they deserve to be favored tonight. 8* LA Clippers | |||||||
11-20-18 | Ball State +17.5 v. Miami-OH | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
8* Ball State (7:00 ET): Miami, Ohio has done a nice job working its way not only to the cusp of bowl eligibility, but also into the race for the MAC East. When the RedHawks were 3-6 SU, their postseason hopes looked bleak. But a couple of upsets later, they're now in the discussion for the MAC Championship Game. Granted, it's unlikely they can get to Detroit (would require not only a win Tuesday, but a Buffalo loss to Bowling Green on Friday). But the RedHawks certainly have "everything to play for" this week, namely bowl eligibility. They're at home facing a bad Ball State team, but I think this number is inflated. Take the points. Ball State pulled an upset of its own last Wednesday, theirs coming over Western Michigan on Senior Night, an emotional game in Muncie that went to overtime. The final score was 42-41 and the Cardinals were a 9.5-point underdog. They won by stopping what would have been a game-winning 2-pt conversion. In addition to it being Senior Night, the Cardinals were also off a bye last week, so the situation was definitely favorable. It's obviously less so here, but I was very impressed w/ the job done by QB Drew Plitt against Western Michigan as he threw three touchdowns and only five incompletions in just his second career start (but sixth appearance this year). Miami might have everything to play for here, but let's see how they perform as a favorite and a large one at that. The RedHawks are 7-1 ATS the L8 games, the lone non-cover coming by a single point against Buffalo. But they've been a favorite only twice during that stretch and never by anywhere close to this many points. Then you have the fact they were a bit of a lucky winner last week, pulling the 13-7 upset at Northern Illinois despite just 201 total yds of offense. The winning score was a pick-six. The RedHawks averaged just 2.3 yards per carry on offense while NIU averaged 5.7. It was a game Miami should feel lucky to have won. In yet another game where points should be at a premium, backing the big underdog seems logical. 8* Ball State | |||||||
11-19-18 | Chiefs v. Rams -3 | Top | 51-54 | Push | 0 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
10* LA Rams (8:20 ET): I have to say that I'm kind of shocked to see how "trendy" an underdog Kansas City is in this spot. I understand that the Chiefs are one of the league's top teams and they are a perfect 3-0 ATS as underdogs this year. Overall, they've covered 8 of 10 games this season, giving them the best ATS record in the league. But have we forgotten how good the Rams are? The Rams have been favored in every game this season and while they've shown some "cracks" defensively in recent weeks, that's nothing compared to the issues on that side of the ball for Kansas City. The Chiefs rank 30th in the league in yards per game and eventually that's going to catch up with them. Facing a top three scoring offense seems like a likely place. Lay the points. The Rams also get a break here in that this game was originally set to take place in Mexico City, but had to be moved to LA due to poor field conditions. So the Rams now get an added game at home where they are already 5-0 and outscoring opponents by 12 PPG. Unlike most Chiefs' opponents, the Rams have an offense that can trade points here. The respective scoring averages from the two offenses here are very similar. Remember that the only team to beat the Rams was insanely hot New Orleans and that was a 45-35 game in the Superdome. The Rams have played a much tougher slate of games than the Chiefs recently and the one loss, coupled with some close calls, have contributed to the public perception that they're not as "hot" right now. While they're 1-5 ATS the L6 games, I think that's nonsense. Since losing to the Patriots, Kansas City has played: Cincinnati, Denver, Cleveland and Arizona - all teams w/ losing records and only the Cleveland game was on the road. The Chiefs' offense was surprisingly held to a season-low 26 points last week, by the Cardinals of all teams. While Kansas City has been pretty lethal as an underdog (8-2 ATS w/ seven outright wins L10 times), this is their toughest game of the season. The Rams played theirs two weeks ago and while they came up short, I still have them rated as the better team here. Thus, now at home, I'll gladly lay a short number. Kansas City's defensive issues will catch up with them here. 10* LA Rams | |||||||
11-19-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Rutgers -4 | Top | 36-63 | Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
10* Rutgers (7:00 ET): Playing at home, I think Rutgers deserves more than being just a "token favorite." Sure, Eastern Michigan will be a player in the MAC this season, but all the Eagles have done so far is roll up some wins against unimpressive teams and also get annihilated by Duke. Now that latter component won't exactly put them in exclusive company by season's end. But it's the wins that have been less impressive to me, particularly one that they share over a common opponent w/ Rutgers. That would be Drexel, who EMU beat by only four points up in Ypsilanti back on November 9th. Just two days later, the Scarlet Knights rolled the Dragons by 29 in this very building. Those two results against the same opponent tell me that the favorite is undervalued in this one. Eastern Michigan is 4-1 so far. But their first three wins weren't all that impressive as they had the close call w/ Drexel and then two others against non-DI teams. The Eagles knew they'd be up against it facing Duke, but things went even worse than expected as they trailed 48-13 at the half and would go on to lose 84-46. Saturday saw the Eagles turn in - easily - their best performance so far as they beat Boston U 80-62 as 7.5-pt chalk and shot 52.5% overall. Senior Eliajh Minnie led the way w/ 28 pts, including 5 of 9 from three-point land. But I question the Eagles' ability to sustain that kind of three-point shooting. They were just 31% as a team from behind the arc including Minnie's 1 of 13. On the road, I think their struggles from deep are likely to reappear. While Rutgers is hardly a "flagship" Big 10 program, they're still a Power 5 school and Eastern Michigan has not done well in such spots. Since beating Michigan 45-42 back in 2014, the Eagles have lost nine straight to Power 5 schools and are just 5-43 SU in such games the L20 years. This includes a 3-23 SU record vs. the Big 10. The Scarlet Knights are off their first loss of the season, which was a wake-up call, as they fell by 19 here at home to St. John's on Friday. After averaging 92.5 PPG on roughly 53% shooting in the first two games, Rutgers shot just 34.9% in the loss to St. John's while at the same time allowing the Johnnie's to shoot 16 of 32 from three-point range. I suspect tonight will be a big-time bounce back from that loss. 10* Rutgers | |||||||
11-18-18 | Vikings v. Bears -1 | Top | 20-25 | Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:20 ET): I think it would be fair to say that there's a sense a skepticism concerning the pro football team from the Windy City. The Bears are 6-3 SU and lead the NFC North, but they've gotten to three games above .500 by beating the Jets, Bills and Lions. Still, all three wins did come in pretty convincing fashion (all by 12 or more pts) and the Bears now own a point differential (+94) that's better than all but three other teams in the league (Chiefs, Rams and Saints). Sunday night will most certainly be labeled as a "prove it" game to the national audience and I think they pass the test at home. They've got revenge for a pair of losses to the Vikings last season and have generally been just the better team here in 2018. I'm going to lay the short number. Minnesota also has a top five defense and beat Detroit in their last game. Their win over the Lions, 24-9, came two weeks ago as they're coming off a bye here. So a lot of people are going to love the situation from their perspective. But under Mike Zimmer, the team is just 1-3 ATS off a bye, including playoffs. The Vikings would be ahead of the Bears in the division if not for that embarrassing loss to Buffalo (at home) back in Week 3. Their only other two defeats came against the Rams and Saints. The only reason that people might seem "down" on this team is because they went 13-3 SU a year ago and added Kirk Cousins. They're a good team, but when it comes to the division, I just think this is going to be the Bears' year. Remember that early in the season, I called for Chicago to be a sleeper playoff team. The key was finally firing John Fox and replacing him w/ an offensive mind like Matt Nagy. A relatively soft schedule has helped. But since Week 4, this Bears offense has led the league in points per game at 34.3. QB Mitchell Trubisky has 19 TD passes during that time and is coming off a career-best performance LW vs. the Lions. While both defenses here are top five in yards allowed, the Bears are allowing fewer points per game and overall have been the better unit. This is the biggest game for the Bears in years and its at home on a Sunday night. Doubted on a national level, they'll show up and deliver. 8* Chicago |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |