Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-29-16 | Magic +12 v. Cavs | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
8* Orlando (7:35 ET): Cleveland's defense of its first ever NBA Championship has gone well so far as they destroyed the Knicks on Opening Night, then won at Toronto last night (by 3). Though they return home tonight (while much of the city will be focused on the World Series), laying double digits w/o rest is a tough spot, even this early in the season. Orlando is 0-2 SU/ATS and thus going to be a pretty desperate team on Saturday night. The Magic are 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS vs. the Cavaliers the L3 seasons, but this is a steep price tag, the largest we have seen attached to any of those seven matchups. Take the points. Now it certainly deserves to be pointed out the Cleveland is 14-0 the L14 meetings vs. Orlando with the average margin of victory coming by 21 points per game! But despite what the early returns may seem to indicate, this year's edition of the Magic should be a lot better than what we've seen the last few seasons. Yes, they lost at home to Miami and then were blown out at Detroit last night. They allowed 50.5% shooting and lost by 26, so clearly this is a "buy low" situation. With Frank Vogel now serving as HC, I expected this team to be a little more stout defensively. Of course, it would also help if the started to shoot a lttle better. They were only 34.7% from the floor last night and 36.6% for the season so far. Even against a top-flight team like Cleveland, I expect that number to go up. Cleveland has had an issue w/ turnovers as they have 31 of them the first two games. That's been mitigated by their first two opponents shooting only 37.85% from the floor thus far, but that percentage is unsustainable. LeBron James actually played center last night as the team is short-handed w/o Channing Frye (death in the family). Orlando, by comparison, has only turned it over 20 times in two games. This is obviously a huge early season number and note that the Magic are 9-4 ATS the L3 seasons as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points. They are also 20-16 ATS playing in the second of back to backs. Cleveland is just 17-21 ATS w/o rest. I can't see the Cavs wining by this big a margin. 8* Orlando | |||||||
10-29-16 | Auburn v. Ole Miss +5 | Top | 40-29 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
10* Ole Miss (7:15 ET): I'm just one week removed from playing Auburn, who rewarded me greatly w/ a 56-3 beatdown of Arkansas that was just about as perfect a game as we've seen them play in the Gus Malzahn era. The Tigers outgained the Hogs 632-215 w/ all but 89 of those yards coming over land. On paper, that seems problematic for an Ole Miss side, which has had plenty of difficulty stopping the run to this point. The Rebels have allowed an average of 227 yards rushing per game to this point, but to me, this is still the best four loss team in the country and it should be a strong finish to the season here in Oxford. Note their four losses have been to Florida State, Alabama, Arkansas and LSU. Only the Arkansas game saw them favored. Auburn is a little "too hot" right now and overvalued coming off LW's beatdown. They're 6-1 ATS and due to start giving some back. This is a rare time we find Mississippi as a home dog. They're 5-2 ATS in that role under Hugh Freeze. Take the points. Key in analyzing Auburn's fast start is the fact they've played only one "true" road game to this point. That came at Mississippi State, who is the worst team in the SEC West. Remember that this team was one play away from a 1-3 SU start. The offense has been firing on all cylinders the L3 games, but was held to 18 pts or fewer in each of its first three games vs. FBS competition. Coming into the year, I would not have thought the Tigers would be favored in this spot. They are just 2-2 ATS as road favorites the L3 seasons w/ the two covers coming at the expense of Kentucky and Mississippi State. The road team is just 3-6 SU the L9 years in this rivalry, though that includes wins each of the L2 years. Last year, Ole Miss prevailed 27-19 at Auburn, a game they were seven-point road favorites. Now, one year later, they're getting points at home! Auburn is clearly improved while the Rebels have regressed some, but still, this is an overadjustment by the linesmakers. Over the L3 seasons, Ole Miss is 15-3 SU/13-5 ATS at Vaught-Hemmingway Stadium. Though they have struggled in the second half each of the L2 weeks (both road games), the Rebels remain the SEC's second highest scoring offense at 37.0 PPG. That's ahead of Auburn's offensive average! 10* Ole Miss | |||||||
10-29-16 | North Texas v. Texas-San Antonio -3.5 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
10* UTSA (7:00 ET): This is a game that few will be paying attention to, but it offers us a tremendous opportunity to go against a North Texas team that's off one of the phoniest wins of this, or any other, season. Hats off to the Mean Green for improving to 4-3 SU for 1st year HC Seth Littrell via a 35-18 win at Army LW (as 17.5-pt dogs, no less). But looking at the box score, it's easy to discern what the key to the game was and that's SEVEN Army turnovers. Believe it or not, but that was North Texas' second consecutive outright win as a DD dog. Before the bye, they beat Marshall at home, 38-21, getting 13.5. Those are two massive covers and the team has also won at Rice earlier in the year, 42-35 (+6.5). But their 5-0-1 ATS run ends here as UTSA looks to atone for an ugly 52-49 home loss (as 10-pt favorites) LW to UTEP. Lay the short number. It was only two weeks ago that I had a big play going AGAINST UTSA. That was as a road favorite against a desperate (at the time, winless) Rice squad. They themselves were off massive upset the week prior, 55-32 over Southern Miss, as 17-pt home dogs. So both of these teams have been giving oddsmakers fits all season. It should be pointed out that I took the Roadrunners earlier in the year, when they hosted Arizona State in a national TV game. They never were out of the money as 21-pt dogs, even leading a majority of that game outright. This marks the third consecutive week they're favored and while 0-2 ATS so far, I think the third time will be the charm. Last week, they outgained UTEP 525-434 (29-19 FD edge). That game went to FOUR overtimes & UTSA never trailed in regulation! In fact, the only time they trailed was in the second OT and they quickly responded w/ a game-tying TD. In the third OT, they not only scored first, but made the 2 pt conversion. Unfortunately, the defense then allowed UTEP to do the same. Still though, that's 104 pts scored in the L2 home games (83 in regulation). Oh, by the way, this is also a revenge game for UTSA. Last year, as a seven-point favorite, they dropped a game in Denton as seven-point favorites. The final score there was 30-23 and it was North Texas' ONLY win of the season. I'm sure the ignominy of that defeat is still remembered by the UTSA players. Prior to the upsets of Rice and Army, the Mean Green had lost 14 consecutive road games (3-11 ATS)! That game LY saw UTSA up 23-21 when the XP was blocked and returned for a game-tying 2 pt conversion. On the ensuing drive, UNT scored the GW TD. Revenge will be sweet here. 10* UTSA | |||||||
10-29-16 | Georgia State v. South Alabama -5 | Top | 10-13 | Loss | -102 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
10* South Alabama (5:00 ET): Let's start w/ the bad news. South Alabama lost four starters in its 28-21 home loss (as nine-point dogs) to Troy last week. One of them was DB Kalen Jackson, who is now likely done for the season. The defensive line is already very thin. It's been a very bizarre season thus far in Mobile. The Jaguars have SU wins over both Mississippi State (on the road) and San Diego State, but their only other win came by a single point (in overtime) over Nicholls State, who is a FCS school. It should be pointed out, however, that was the lone game to this point that they have been favored in. Therefore, it's pretty telling to find them in the chalk role here, all things considered, and even more intriguing to see how the line has moved subsequently. Lay the points. Another key in handicapping this game is the fact this will be South Alabama's last home game until the season finale against New Mexico State on December 3rd! That's right; the Jags won't be playing in Mobile a single time in November (three road games and a bye). Therefore, before the bid adieu to campus, I'll be expecting a pretty focused effort Saturday evening. This game marks a revenge spot for USA as they lost 24-10 LY in Atlanta (were two-point dogs) despite jumping out to an early 10-0 advantage. The home team has now won four of five all-time meetings between them and Georgia State. A team that was able to go into Starkville and win, not to mention hand San Diego State its only loss of the campaign, should certainly be good enough to beat Georgia State here at home. Georgia State did not make the jump to the FBS level until 2013. Their first two years in the Sun Belt, or anywhere else for that matter, did not go well as they went a combined 1-23 straight up w/ the one win coming at the expense of Abilene Christian. The Panthers' first win over a FBS team was Week 2 of last year, 34-32 at New Mexico State. That was the catalyst to a surprising 6-7 SU finish w/ all but one win coming in league play. I already mentioned that they beat South Alabama. This year, they arrive in Mobile riding a 5-game ATS win streak. But they are only 2-5 SU w/ one of the wins coming LW against FCS Tenn Martin. They were getting double digits in three of the ATS wins and favored in the other (over Texas State). Road games have not gone well for the Panthers as they're 0-4 SU, getting outscored by 16 PPG. 10* South Alabama | |||||||
10-29-16 | Arizona State v. Oregon -9.5 | Top | 35-54 | Win | 100 | 27 h 33 m | Show |
8* Oregon (5:00 ET): Eugene was once the envy of the College Football universe, but it's all come crashing down under the "guidance" of Mark Helfrich in the two seasons post Marcus Mariota. The Ducks have dropped an almost unfathomable five consecutive games coming into this week, though it should be pointed out that two of those have come against teams that are still unbeaten, Nebraska and Washington. Three of the five losses have been by exactly a field goal. The 35-32 loss in Lincoln (Nebraska) is the only game the Ducks MAY have covered for you as they spent a portion of that week at +3.5. But other than that, it's been all ATS losses, though I pushed w/ them as three-point dogs in LW's 52-49 double OT loss at Cal. They are the ONLY team in the country yet to have covered a single game using closing lines. Shocking as it may seem, I'll call for that streak to end Saturday, even though they are laying more than one score! Ever since pulling out a somewhat miraculuous come from behind win and cover over Cal on 9.24, it's been pretty much all downhill for Arizona State. They've dropped three of four w/ the lone win coming by three (at home) against UCLA, who was w/o Josh Rosen. They prevailed there despite a 443-275 deficit in total yardage and have since lost to Colorado and Washington State the L2 weeks. In neither of those two games did the Sun Devils gain more 280 yards of total offense. The problem for them has been the health, or lack of it, of QB Manny Wilkins. After missing the win over UCLA, he returned against Colorado, but was pretty dreadful (13 of 35 for 149 yards). He then exited early LW vs. Wazzu after just six attempts. That game saw ASU fall behind 37-21 early in the fourth quarter before scoring two late TD's. But for the game, Wazzu had a 2:1 edge in first downs. With Wikins listed as questionable here, I wouldn't want to rely on this Sun Devils defense which is allowing 34.4 points and 486 yards per game. There have actually been two WINS this year where the D gave up 41 or more points. Oregon's issues also clearly reside on the defensive side of the ball as they've allowed a ghastly 57.7 PPG the L3 weeks! That's a ridiculoulsly high bar to set when laying points, but I'm going to go ahead and call for the Ducks' best game on BOTH sides of the football here. Clearly, we've established they should be able to move the ball. Defensively, they'll benefit from the unsettled ASU QB situation. ASU, while 2-3 SU in Pac 12 play, is being outgained by 200 YPG. Like most conference rivals, Oregon has enjoyed an extended run of dominance over ASU (won 9 straight). We've seen comeuppance be served each of the L4 weeks, but not here. Lay the ponts. 8* Oregon | |||||||
10-29-16 | Texas Tech v. TCU -9 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 14 m | Show |
8* TCU (3:30 ET): One of these teams was kind to me last week, the other was not. But as a handicapper, one must avoid "loyalty" to teams at all costs and that's the situation that presents itself here. Some may have found LW's NFL game between the Seahawks and Cardinals to be the least aesthetically pleasing of the weekend, but personally, I found Texas Tech's 66-59 home loss to Oklahoma to be far more grossly offensive. I say that as someone who cashed a winning ticket on the Red Raiders (+14), keep in mind. Meanwhile, TCU may have let me down in Morgantown, but suffice to say the Mountaineers are a lot better than everyone (myself included) thought this year. A return to Ft. Worth to face a team that plays no defense whatsoever is just what "the doctor ordered" for the Horned Frogs. Lay the points. Consider that Texas Tech put up a "video game like" 854 yards of total offense last week and still LOST the game! Not only that, but they only led for 20 seconds of gametime and trailed by double digits for a large portion of the second half. That should give you an idea of the kind of defense we are dealing w/ here as the Red Raiders also allowed 854 total yards. That came on the heels of allowing 650 to West Virginia the week prior and both of those games were at HOME! In my analysis for last week's game, I harped on the fact that the WVU game was the only time in its last 10 (now 11) home games that the TT offense failed to score at least 50 points. But take this group out of Lubbock and the production tends to drop while the defense gets no better. The Red Raiders' only two previous "true" road games this year both resulted in losses where they've allowed an average of 56 PPG. FCS Stephen F Austin and Kansas (one of the worst Power 5 schools) are the only two opponents that have not scored at least 44 pts against this team. TCU's offense was definitely held in check LW at Morgantown (only 10 pts and 300 total yds), but some self-inflicted wounds (i.e. three turnovers) certainly did not help their cause either. It's certainly been a disappointing season thus far for the Horned Frogs, including in the eyes of the oddsmakers as they're just 1-6 ATS so far. But the only three SU losses have come to Arkansas, Oklahoma and WVU. While two of those (not WVU) were shootouts here in Ft. Worth, the defense they face here will allow them to prevail this time and by a comfortable margin to boot. Four home games have seen TCU average 46 points and 557 yards to begin with and the last time Texas Tech came here, they infamously put up 82 points and 785 total yards! Last year was a 55-52 win in Lubbock where they gained 750 total yds. So, clearly, this should be the Horned Frogs best offensive game of the season. By the way, they are a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS all-time at home when the total is 70+ points. 8* TCU | |||||||
10-29-16 | Miami (OH) +7.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 28-15 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
8* Miami OH (3:30 ET): There have been some real "lean" years in Oxford, Ohio of late (23-51 SU L10 years w/ nine losing seasons). But for whatever reason, the RedHawks have always seemed to have Eastern Michigan's number. They've beaten the Eagles eight straight times and done so by an average of 12 PPG. Granted, that win streak goes back to the Ben Roethlisberger era, but last year they won 28-13, which was one of just two MAC victories in 2015. With EMU seemingly on the "road to recovery" this year (5-3 SU), many will be quick to call for them to put an end to this losing skid. But I'd advise laying points w/ an outfit unaccustomed to the chalk role. This will be the first time EMU has given at least a TD to a FBS opponent in the Chris Creighton era. In fact, it's the first time laying this many to a FBS opponent since 2011 when they pushed against Akron as eight-point favorites. Take the points. Eastern Michigan is one of 22 current FBS members never to have been ranked. Considering a good portion of the other 21 are relative "newbies" to this level of play, that's a pretty dubious distinction to have. The school's last bowl appearance came all the way back in 1987 in the now defunct California Raisin Bowl. But HC Creighton has certainly turned this program around as all they need is one more win to become bowl eligible this year! The Eagles' only three losses this year came to Missouri, Toledo and Western Michigan, that's two conference heavyweights + a SEC team. They've also covered seven in a row ATS for the nation's second longest active win streak at the betting window (Colorado). But last week was a tough 14-pt loss to rival Western Michigan and I see a letdown taking place here in the unfamiliar role of fave. The Eagles' defense remains leaky (422 YPG allowed) and ranks 112th nationally against the pass. At the very worst, that means the backdoor will be open here. Meanwhile, Miami actually brings the league's best defense into Ypsilanti. They've allowed an average of just 301 YPG in MAC play and are now 2-2 SU after B2B wins over Kent State and Bowling Green the past two weeks. Last week, BG was the first conference opponent to gain more than 300 yds against them, but surprisingly the RedHawks offense showed up w/ both 200+ yards passing and rushing! Even in a 17-7 loss to rival Ohio U, they gave up only 197 total yards. EMU is a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points for just the fourth time (ever!) and their L3 wins have come by a combined 13 pts, none by more than seven. 8* MIami (OH). | |||||||
10-29-16 | Kentucky v. Missouri -5.5 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -115 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
8* Missouri (12:00 ET): I'm well aware that Kentucky dominated Mississippi State far more than the scoreboard showed last Saturday (outgained the Bulldogs by nearly 200 yds in 40-38 win), but a tenent of this week's handicapping philosophy is going to be taking home teams, off a loss and playing with revenge. Enter Missouri, who is in the midst of a very disappointing season thus far. The Tigers are 0-3 SU/ATS in October, but there is no doubt that it is last week's loss, 51-48 to Middle Tennessee (on homecoming weekend, no less) that stings the most. Mizzou was a team earmarked for improvement this year, but if they were to lose this game, B2B seasons w/o a bowl is a very real possibility. Fortunately, they are in Columbia, a place where UK has never won. Lay the points. A 4-1 stretch - both SU and ATS - has Kentucky thinking postseason. But the Wildcats have had to play only two road games thus far - at Florida and at Alabama. As you might have guessed, neither went well. They were outscored 79-13 and only covered against 'Bama due to the oddsmakers' generosity (were getting 37 pts). While the opponent isn't even close to as strong this week, note UK has lost its two previous visits to Columbia - both by double digits. In fact, in the four times these teams have played (Missouri joined the SEC in 2012), the home team is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS. Last time here, they trailed the entire way en route to a 20-10 loss. Last year in Lexington, Mizzou turned in the best performance by a visitor in the four year history of this rivalry, but ultimately gave away the lead in the second half. While Kentucky was able to gain 554 total yards of offense last week, it was an ideal spot coming off a bye. Meanwhile, Missouri was flat, hosting a non-conf opponent off B2B SEC road games. The Tigers actually put up more offense than UK last week (629 yards!) as well as their opponent (allowed 584), but ultimately lost due to a pair of turnovers, which were converted into 10 MTSU points and that was the difference in the ballgame. I'm pretty shocked to see Mizzou sitting at only 2-5 SU right now, but they have had to travel to West Virginia, LSU and Florida and most teams will go 0-3 against that gauntlet. As a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 pts, UK is just 3-17 SU and 5-15 ATS its L20. Despite the 4-3 SU record, the Wildcats have been outgained this year by 51.6 yards per game. That's due to the two road games where they are -371 YPG! Meanwhile, Mizzou is outgaining its opponents by about 50 YPG this season and gaining over 600 YPG in the four home games. 8* Missouri | |||||||
10-28-16 | Warriors v. Pelicans +10 | Top | 122-114 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
8* New Orleans (9:35 ET): The world figures to be on Golden State here as the Warriors were flat out embarrassed on Opening Night, losing 129-100 (at home!) to the Spurs. But, I'm of the belief that the Dubs will consistently be overpriced on a game by game basis this season and thus the value is typically going to come fading them. Here, they are being asked to lay double digits, on the road. I realize that the Pelicans failed to win a game where Anthony Davis went for 50 points, 16 rebounds, 5 assists, 7 steals and 4 blocks! But the team also combined to go a horrific 3 for 19 from three-point range, a number that all but HAS to improve tonight. Look for Davis to carry his team to a cover. Take the boatload of points. While the key core returns, there are many new faces on board. The most notable is obviously Kevin Durant, who did play well in the opener. He made 11 of 18 shots, finishing w/ 27 points. Steph Curry had 26, but was only 3 for 10 from behind the three-point line as it's highly unlikely that LY's other-worldly numbers will be repeated. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green were also in double figures. But no one else on the team scored more than five points and that's where the problem lies. The top four is as strong as any top four on any team in league history, but the dropoff after Curry, Durant, Thompson, Green is severe and you have to wonder just who will be able to contribute consistently. Don't discount the fact that HC Steve Kerr has lost his top assistant each of the last two years. Complacency may also set in w/ a team still disappointed about LY's Finals loss. The Warriors were also awful defensively against San Antonio, giving up 30+ points in EVERY quarter. Lost in LY's incredible run is that this was one of the top FG% defenses in the entire league. I expect them to regress in that department this year. Interesting is that not only is the team 5-4 ATS as a road favorite of 9.5 to 12 pts the L3 seasons, those four ATS losses have also all resulte in outright losses. New Orleans may be shorthanded here, but they have Davis and figure to be highly motivated playing the league's best team. When they hosted Golden State last year (granted very early in the season), they were only 5.5-pt dogs. It took 53 points from Curry for the GSW win. 8* New Orleans | |||||||
10-28-16 | Rockets +2 v. Mavs | Top | 106-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:35 ET): The Rockets really let me down Wednesday night, losing their first game to the Lakers. Coming into the year, offense was not thought to be an issue for this team under new HC Mike D'Antoni and it wasn't in LA as they went for 114 points. But defense was another matter as they let dreadful opponent shoot better than 50 percent from the floor en route to scoring 120. Houston also failed to shoot well from three-point range (24.1%), something that I do not anticipate being the case moving forward. Were it not for a -15 pt discrepancy from behind the arc, I just don't see how the Rockets lose that game Wednesday. I'll come back w/ them here. Take the points. Dallas has made the playoffs every year this century save for one time (2012-13). They have not had a losing record since 1999-00 (went 40-42) and you'd have to go back to 97-98 to find the last time they didn't win at least 40 games in a full 82-game season. But this year, I expect the Mavs to take a pretty significant step back. They lost a tough one in the opener, 130-121 at Indiana, a game that went to overtime. They had trailed earlier by as many as 14. Dirk Nowitzki simply isn't getting any younger and the supporting cast around him has crumbled. Had it not been for a Harrison Barnes' three-pointer w/ 2.3 seconds remaining in regulation, then the team would have lost in OT. They let the Pacers shoot 52.6% from three-point range and 50.5% overall for the game. Getting back to Houston's three-point shooting from the first game, they missed 15 of 16 attempts in the second half. That can't happen again. While Dallas has taken 29 of the last 43 head to head matchups in this Southwest Division rivalry, note Houston has won six of the last nine. They split four last year. Given the Mavericks' inability to defend Indiana, I think that they are in for a rough outing here against a Houston team that can absolutely pour it on. Look for the road team to come in and take this front end of a home and home. 8* Houston | |||||||
10-28-16 | Hornets +2 v. Heat | Top | 97-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
8* Charlotte (8:05 ET): Similar to their season opener vs. Milwaukee, the line has moved in the direction of the Hornets here. Miami may have also won its season opener, 108-96 at Orlando (+3), but I'd caution about expecting much from the Heat in 2016-17. This team is a shell of its former self w/ all of the "Big 3" (LeBron, Wade, Bosh) all departed as have Luol Deng and Joe Johnson. As you might expect, Hassan Whiteside led the way against the Magic w/ 18 points and 14 rebounds. Goran Dragic contributed 16 pts in a game the Heat basically led for the entirety of the second half. While Miami has dominated Charlotte through the years here at home (25-5 SU L30), I would expect that to change this season. This is of course a revenge spot for the Hornets as they were eliminated in seven games LY by Miami in the 1st round of the playoffs. Game 7 was here in Miami and saw the Heat prevail by a score of 106-73, one of the largest margins of victory ever in a Game 7. This year, I anticipate only Charlotte making it back to the playoffs. They get a full season of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who was limited to only seven games in 2015-16. He scored 23 pts and added 14 rebounds in the team's opening night victory over Milwaukee. That was a really dominant performance by the Hornets as they led by as many as 24 in the 107-96 SU win and cover. Roy Hibbert was also solid Wednesday night. Not only did he score 15 pts, but so too did his backup Cody Zeller. Miami probably can't rely on another opponent shooting just 38.6% from the field like Orlando did Wednesday. Nor should they rely on the likes of new starters Dion Waiters and Luke Babbit. Both Josh Richardson and Wayne Ellington remain out. Charlotte was a strong defensive team to begin with under Steve Clifford; with Hibbert in the fold, they are even stronger. Don't forget about Kemba Walker either; he should be the best player on the floor Friday night. These teams finished even in the standings LY, but I thought Charlotte was better as they outscored teams by a full point more per game than did Miami. The Hornets are as good or better than last season while the Heat are significantly worse. 8* Charlotte | |||||||
10-28-16 | San Diego State v. Utah State +6 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
8* Utah State (8:00 ET): This is the second straight Friday game for San Diego State, who coming into the year was considered as the co-favorite (along w/ Boise St) to win the Mountain West. Those teams don't meet in the regular season and according to the oddsmakers a potential MWC Championship Game would see both teams come in w/o a conference loss. But SDSU has dropped a game this year, that being at South Alabama, 42-24 as 19.5-pt chalk back on Oct 1. Since then, the Aztecs D has led the way to three consecutive wins, allowing just 13 pts total! But they can expect a far stiffer challenge this week as they visit Logan to take on a Utah State squad that doesn't lose at home very often. This is a big revenge spot for the host Aggies as they were actually five point road favorites in a 48-14 loss to SDSU (another Fri game) last year. Take the points. Since 2014, USU is 14-2 SU at home. One of those losses did come earlier this year, 27-20 as 5.5-pt pups to Air Force. The only other came at the expense of BYU in LY's regular season finale. Last week as big 21-pt favorites against Fresno State, the Aggies won, but only 38-20. While only 3-4 SU for the year, two of USU's losses came by 7 pts and the other two were against USC and Boise State. They've played a far more challenging schedule to this point than has San Diego State. The Aggies have won three times by two touchdowns or more at home this year. Their one home loss saw the opponent (Air Force) come in off a bye. Getting a Friday night home in Logan is a pretty big deal and I expect the crowd to be amped up here. San Diego State seems due for an "off week" here after thumping San Jose State last Friday, 42-3. That game saw RB Pumphrey gain 135 yards as he continues to lead the nation in rushing. But Pumphrey's workload is worrisome. He's averaged 31 carries the last three games. While series history is troubling from our perspective (SDSU has won nine straight, by an average of 20 PPG), I come back to the fact that the Aztecs already dumped one road game to an inferior opponent. While the defense has been great each of the L3 weeks, take note they did give up 40+ pts twice in the first four games. 8* Utah State | |||||||
10-28-16 | Navy v. South Florida -6.5 | Top | 45-52 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
10* South Florida (7:00 ET): I don't think that I've seen a more publicly endorsed underdog all year. Well, maybe, Arkansas last week and we saw how that turned out. Here, Navy is drawing heavy action, but I think the value is all on the other side. It is telling that the Midshipmen come in ranked but are the clear dog in this matchup. They've been fortunate in that they've had two bye weeks thus far. A scheduled date w/ East Carolina two weeks ago had to be postponed because of Hurricane Matthew. The Middies took full advantage of that by beating Memphis last week, 42-28 as a 1.5-pt favorite. This program has historically performed very well in the underdog role (90-55 ATS). But I do not like their chances here. Lay the points. USF had a breakout year in 2015. They went 8-5 SU and 10-3 ATS. That's continued here in Willie Taggart's fourth year in Tampa as the Bulls are 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS. But they are off a rare SU loss, 46-30 at Temple last week, a game where the offense gained a season-low 352 total yds. Expect a bounce back in this return home. This is a revenge spot as well for a 29-17 loss in Annapolis last year. That was one of just two AAC losses for USF last year. They actually led 17-13 in the second half before falling apart late. While Navy has been quite profitable as a dog through the years, the same holds true for USF in the chalk role. They are 13-1 SU, 10-4 ATS laying points the L3 seasons. Overall, this team has won 13 of its last 17 games. Off their only previous loss this season (55-35 vs. Florida St), they came back to down Cincinnati (on the road), 45-20 as seven-point favorites. I mentioned earlier that USF is off a season-low in total yards. This is a group that averages 42.4 points and 487 yards per game for the season. QB Quinton Flowers leads the way w/ nearly 2500 total yards as he is the team's leading rusher as well. Pivoting to Navy, they just beat their two main rivals in the AAC West (Houston and Memphis) the L2 weeks. But both games took place at home. I had them in the big upset (as 16-pt dogs) over Houston, but note the Midshipmen benefited from a +3 turnover edge in that one and were actually outgained by over 100 yards. Last week, as I already mentioned, they were off a bye. Two previous road games have resulted in a push (at Tulane where the trailed much of the way) and a two touchdown loss at Air Force. 10* South Florida | |||||||
10-27-16 | California v. USC -16 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 34 h 7 m | Show |
10* USC (10:30 ET): Southern Cal is finally starting to hit its stride. The Trojans are one of a number of teams nationally who right now I'd say are definitely better than their won-loss record. Though it came in very ugly fashion (52-6!), you can probably excuse them for losing to Alabama in the opener. (If you're a regular, remember I took 'Bama there). After rebounding w/ a dominating 45-7 win over Utah State here at the Coliseum, they then lost B2B road games to Stanford and Utah to open Pac 12 play. But I thought they certainly outplayed the Utes, who have proven to be a formidable team. They have since won three straight, including 48-14 over Arizona their last time out. That game was on October 15th, so Coach O's team will certainly be well rested when it takes the field Thursday night. I say lay the points here. Cal is also 4-3 SU, but as you can see the oddsmakers feel these teams' respective won-loss records are anything but identical. The Bears have really surprised me in staying relevant after the departure of QB Jared Goff to the pros. Their last six games have all been close and come down to the wire. None have been decided by more than 10 points and they are 3-3 straight up in those. The one that was decided by the largest margin (10 pts) was only because the opponent (Arizona St) returned an onside kick for TD in the final minute. So you might be surprised to find the Bears getting so many points. But, don't make the mistake of being tempted. They have lost 12 straight times to USC, by an average of 18 points per game. Their last win was in '03 w/ Aaron Rodgers as the quarterback. Last year, it was only 27-21 in Berkeley, but it was a 13-point game pretty deep into the fourth quarter. These teams have played two common opponents. One was Utah, who as I already mentioned beat USC. Well, Call beat the Utes, 28-23, but only after a goal-line stand to end the game. The second common opponent is Arizona State, who USC beat and Cal did not. The Trojans didn't just beat ASU, they dominated them, 41-20 as nine-point chalk w/ a 523-303 edge in total yards. That was actually a 41-6 game heading into the fourth quarter. USC also should have beaten a very good Colorado team by more than the 21-17 final as they ran out the clock inside the CU five-yard line. That was a game where they were +177 in total yards and were it not for four turnovers, it definitely would have been a blowout. In the last game, they outgained Arizona 574-343. This is clearly a team hitting its stride since the change at QB. Also, this is an absolutely brutal scheduling spot for Cal. They're working on a short week (played last Friday), off a double OT win over Oregon, while USC is rested (been off 11 days). Cal is also 0-3 SU in "true" road games including an outright loss to Oregon State. 10* USC | |||||||
10-27-16 | Wizards +3.5 v. Hawks | Top | 99-114 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
8* Washington (7:35 ET): The Southeast Division is wide open this year. Miami finished in first place last year, but we know they are set to take a rather significant step back in 2016-17. That leaves a void that needs to be filled. I believe the Wizards are the team most likely to step up. Though they failed to even make the playoffs LY, they still possess one of the top starting backcourts in this league w/ John Wall and Bradley Beal. Health was an issue for the Wiz early on last season, but once the got their full compliment of players back, it was a strong 18-13 SU finish to the campaign. This was definitely the best team in the East not to make the playoffs (faint praise, I know!) & if they can continue to feast on below .500 competition (23-9 SU LY), then I project a big jump in the standings. Atlanta has undergone a significant makeover in an attempt to get them out of the perpetual mediocrity they've resided in for the past decade. Jeff Teague and Al Horford are both gone. They have been replaced with Dennis Schroeder and Dwight Howard. Schroeder is an "in-house promotion" as he was the backup to Teague at the PG position last year. It will be interesting to watch how he handles the significant increase in minutes that comes w/ being in starting lineup. Howard is an interesting call. He is no longer the dominant force he was in Orlando, but has something to prove after awful tenures in LA and Houston. Personally, I feel Schroeder and Howard are both downgrades from the respective predecessors. The only clear sign of improvement for the Hawks this year is that they probably won't go 0-5 SU in overtime games again. I favor the Wiz here and believe the better team is getting points. New HC Scott Brooks is looking to make an impact in his first game at the helm. These teams played four times last year and all were decided by double digits. Expect a more competitive affair here where the points are worth taking. Also key is regression/progression to the mean on the defensive end. Even w/ Howard, don't look for the Hawks to repeat last year's performance where they ranked #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, I expect Washington to improve upon its 104.6 PPG allowed from LY. 8* Washington | |||||||
10-27-16 | Appalachian State v. Georgia Southern +5.5 | Top | 34-10 | Loss | -102 | 31 h 8 m | Show |
8* Georgia Southern (7:30 ET): While the official homecoming weekend in Statesboro isn't until November 10th, this week could certainly be considered a homecoming of sorts. That's because the host Eagles are back in Allen E. Paulson Stadium for the first time since a 23-21 win over Sun Belt rival LA Monroe all the way back on September 17th! Since that time, they've had to play four consecutive road dates and predictably the trip did not go well. The lone win came last Saturday, against a weak New Mexico State team, and even then it was just a 22-19 final as 13.5-pt favorites. It should be pointed out, however, that the Eagles had to go to both Western Michigan and Georgia Tech during that four-game, five-week trip. They'll be at Ole Miss next week! This is a team that beat South Alabama (who beat Miss St), thus they will not be intimidated by a visit from SBC power Appalachian State. I say take the points. Appalachian State's only losses have come to Tennessee and Miami. Other than a 45-38 win at Akron, every Mountaineers' victory has been by double digits. That includes Saturday's 37-19 win over Idaho. The App State defense has really been playing well of late, giving up an average of just 7.3 points and 288.3 yards over the L3 games. But Georgia State, UL Lafayette and Idaho isn't exactly a challenging gauntlet, particularly w/ two of the games taking place in Boone. Three interceptions were key last week, but given the fact that Ga Southern won't throw it much, they should not count on such good fortune here. All told, the offense hasn't been that impressive as it's averaging only 25.3 PPG this year. They've been held under that number in four of seven games. Former (Southern) conference rivals at the FCS level, these teams have played every year since '93. The home team has won the last three meetings including both here at the FBS level. Last year, it was App State 31-13 (as six-point chalk) in Boone, which of course makes this a revenge spot for Ga Southern. They are 17-3 SU in conference play as a member of the Sun Belt and 12-1 SU their last 13 home games! You have to think a 1-6 ATS record (this year) is due to improve. They were a home dog only once last year and won that game, 43-17, over Western Michigan. This is only the third time they've been a dog, period, this season. Defensively, they've allowed 21 pts or less in four of seven games. I smell an upset. 8* Ga Southern | |||||||
10-27-16 | Akron v. Buffalo +17.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (7:30 ET): Buffalo is not a good football team. In fact, the Bulls currently grade out as one of the worst teams in the entire country. But Akron is hardly worthy of the hefty price tag they're carrying in this Thursday night tilt, on the road no less. That should certainly balance things out in what is a revenge game for the home team. Buffalo lost 42-21 at Akron last year, but only as a 4.5-pt dog, and I personally don't believe the Zips are anywhere near as strong in 2016 as they were in 2015 when they made just their second bowl game in program history. This shapes up as a letdown spot for Akron off a win at Ball St last week (as 3.5-pt pups) and the line has been bet up across the key number of 17 to boot. Take the points. Going into LY, Akron was a pathetic 2-24 SU its L26 MAC road games. They have since turned things around w/ a 5-1 SU mark the L2 seasons. Key though is that two of those seven wins came at the expense of UMass, who is no longer in the conference. Another point worth nothing is they are not only favored, but favored significantly. If you're a regular client of mine, then perhaps you recall a few weeks back when I played against the Zips laying more than a TD at rival Kent. They won that game, but only 31-27 and needed a TD in the final minute to pull out the SU victory, a game they were actually outgained 423-378. Two weeks ago saw them get absolutely crushed by Western Michigan (lost 41-0). But then LW came a come from behind, 35-25 win at Ball State. They trailed until late in the third quarter and it was only a three-point game when they scored an insurance TD w/ just 2:22 remaining. This was the least experienced team in the country coming into the season! Without question, this is probably the first time Akron has been a DD road favorite in what I'll call the "database era." I defy someone to find the last time this happened, at least in MAC play. Admittedly, Buffalo is off a pretty humiliating loss here (44-7 at Northern Illinois), but four turnovers certainly did them no favors there. I could find only five instances of the Bulls ever being a home dog in the +17.5 to +21 range and they are 4-1 ATS in those games! They did beat Army here as 13.5-pt dogs earlier this season, for their only SU win. The home team has won seven of the last eight meetings between these two, including the last five. Look for the Bulls to keep this one closer than expected. 8* Buffalo | |||||||
10-26-16 | Rockets -6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
8* Houston (10:35 ET): I spent a majority of last season ripping the Lakers as a young team that stood idly by and watched Kobe Bryant take an inordinate amount of FG attempts. The result was a horrible 17-65 SU finish, second worst in the league, ahead of only the 76ers. But now that it's "Mamba Out," my projection for this team gets no rosier. They still figure to be one of the three worst teams in the league. I saw a recent transaction for the club that included the names "Metta World Peace" and "Yi Jianlin." That should tell you all about where this once proud franchise currently stands. While there's good young pieces, it's going to take a lot of time to gel and LY's Kobe victory lap really stunted a lot of potential growth. Lay the points here. Houston had its own issues last year as they barely made the playoffs despite being one year removed from an appearance in the Western Conference Finals. After leading the league at the betting window in 2014-15 at 59.2% ATS (58-40-1, a record that was better than anyone last year), they dropped all the way down to 43.7% ATS (38-49), which was WORST in the league. How about that? Where I come from, that's called "regression to the mean," but expect the team to finish somewhere in the middle during this campaign. The Rockets have thankfully rid themselves of Dwight Howard, who did not have a good tenure here. I expect a bounce back year from James Harden and w/ Mike D'Antoni now running the show, I would not be shocked if this team led the league in points per game. I think you can certainly expect Houston to score plenty of points tonight as they face the team that ranked 30th (ie last) in defensive efficiency a year ago. The Lakers allowed a dreadful 1.09 points per possession in 2015-16 and in a game that figures to turn into a track meet, that's bad news. Over the L3 seasons, Houston has gone 6-1 SU and ATS vs. the Lakers, including a perfect 4-0 here in LA. Every game last year was decided by at least 17 points w/ three coming by 20+, so yeah this is a bad matchup for the home team. 8* Houston | |||||||
10-26-16 | Kings v. Suns -2.5 | Top | 113-94 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Phoenix (10:05 ET): The Suns were not a good team last year. Actually, that's putting things quite mildly. They went 23-59 SU, getting outscored by 6.7 points per game. Only Brooklyn, Philadelphia and the Lakers were worse in my own personal power rankings. I was actually a bit surprised to find that the Suns were favored a total of 26 times last season (went 11-15 ATS). But only five of those times came after January 1st and two of them were in the meaningless two final games. Therefore, you might be a bit shocked to see me calling to lay the short number here. Don't be. I feel Sacramento is wildly overrated and getting too much respect from the oddsmakers here. This is a rare time when the favorite isn't getting the majority of bets. The Kings have gone 3-1 - both SU and ATS - each of the L2 seasons against the Suns. After losing the first matchup here in Phoenix LY, they won the next three. Interestingly, Phoenix was favored in both home games last year - by six and 10 points respectively. Some are thinking Sacramento can possibly compete for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, but I don't buy it. This continues to be a dysfunctional franchise as it's difficult to build around Boogie Cousins, even as talented as he is. PG Darren Collison is suspended for the first eight games (domestic abuse) and starting in his place will be Ty Lawson, who has his own set of issues, one of them being he's not a very good point guard at this stage of the game. That's problematic b/c the team doesn't have another true point guard on the roster! The Kings were just 15-26 SU on the road last season and were a terrible defensive team, giving up a league-worst 109.1 PPG. 1st year HC Dave Joeger has a lot of work to do here. Of course, so too does Suns HC Earl Watson. But I like how his roster is progressing. Will this be a playoff contender in 2016-17? Obviously, not. But can they beat Sacramento at home, laying only a short number? Yes. Keep in mind that this team suffered a ton of injuries last season. Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker is your starting backcourt w/ Brandon Knight coming off the bench as the sixth man. That's a solid foundation. Up front you have Jared Dudley, Tyson Chandler and some good young talent that will be enough to aid in winning this game "going away." 10* Phoenix | |||||||
10-25-16 | Jazz v. Blazers -5.5 | Top | 104-113 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
10* Portland (10:05 ET): In my initial NBA Power Rankings column, I have these teams basically rated as being even. Based on that, one might surmise that I'd feel the Blazers are a tad bit overvalued here on Opening Night. That assertion would be wrong. Utah is a team that I feel will make a leap into the middle of the playoff pack in 2016-17, but they are the ones a tad bit overvalued coming into this season. Calls for 50+ wins or a Northwest Division Title seem to be a case of putting the "cart before the horse" to me. Portland has always been a very strong home team. They were 32-14 SU here last year and that included a pair of wins over the Jazz. Overall, they took three of four head to head last season. Utah is not exactly healthy to start the season w/ Gordon Hayward definitely MIA and Derrick Favors + Alec Burke also possibly out. Lay the points. It's difficult to fathom now, but Portland was actually projected to win fewer than 30 games last season. That was due to them losing FOUR starters from the previous campaign, one of them being All-Star LaMarcus Aldridge. But credit HC Terry Stotts for doing a tremendous job here. There's no such attrition to suffer through coming into this season as the nucleus of LY's playoff team is all back. Most notable is Damian Lillard, the only player in the league besides LeBron James, Steph Curry and Russell Westbrook in the Top 10 in both points and assists. This is a deep roster too; they added Evan Turner for depth in the offeseason. CJ McCollum, alongside Lillard, makes for one of the better starting backcourts in this league. Folks, this team has been in the second round of the playoffs each of the L2 seasons. They averaged a whopping 108.2 PPG at home last year. Utah was not a good road team LY as their record was only 16-25 SU and averaged only 96.8 points per game. Pretty short-handed, I see them struggling to match Portland on the offensive end. I also don't expect them to be in "mid-season form" when it comes to the defensive end. There are some new pieces as well, such as PG George Hill, Joe Johnson and Boris Diaw, that will require time to gel. As a home favorite of 3.5 to 6.5 points, the Blazers went 12-6 ATS last year. 10* Portland | |||||||
10-24-16 | Texans +9 v. Broncos | Top | 9-27 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
10* Houston (8:30 ET): Last Sunday night saw Houston "steal one" at home against Indianapolis. I had the Texans, but must say that even I had written that one off as a loss early in the fourth quarter. They trailed 23-9 w/ seven minutes to go and QB Brock Osweiler was looking quite horrible. But then all of a sudden, Osweiler threw two late TD passes (Colts defense is not good) and the game went to overtime. A field goal later and Houston now finds itself at 4-2 and in first place of the moribund AFC South. All four wins have come at home and the two losses have been on the road. Thus, on paper, it certainly doesn't appear to be a great spot this week visiting Denver and its top-flight defense. The big story here will be Osweiler facing his former team, but for me, the key has been a significant line move. The value here is now on the Texans. After starting the year 4-0 SU, the Broncos have dropped B2B games. They were favored in both losses and the offense has sputtered. Rookie Paxton Lynch getting called into duty clearly hurt the team at home vs. Atlanta two weeks ago. But then last week at San Diego, they were outplayed w/ Trevor Siemian back under center. It was a 21-3 game midway through the fourth quarter when the Chargers let them back in as the Chargers are wont to do. Remember that Denver was expected to regress here in 2016; last year saw them go a remarkable 11-3 SU in "close games" (defined as those decided by 8 pts or less). This is the most points they have been asked to lay in any game so far this season. For the sake of comparison, they were only asked to lay six points here at home to the Indianapolis team Houston just beat. The Broncos only covered against the Colts due to a pair of defensive scores. Texans RB Lamar Miller had a breakout game vs. the Colts (149 yards). It would probably be wrong to expect him to duplicate that production against the much better Broncos defense, but expect to see him featured here. Denver has had 10 days off between games here, seemingly an advantage, but again I point to this inflated number. Not only is this the most points Denver has had to lay in any game this year, it's the most Houston has gotten. Only four times since 2012 have the Texans been a dog of a TD or more. Last year, it happened just one time, on a Monday night, and they went to Cincinnati and won outright. Not saying they'll win SU here, but they'll certainly keep it close. Denver is 1-8 ATS off a division game the L3 seasons. 10* Houston | |||||||
10-23-16 | Seahawks v. Cardinals -2 | Top | 6-6 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 47 m | Show |
10* Arizona (8:25 ET): It seems as if no one is really giving the Cardinals a shot here, which seems odd, because at the start of the season there is simply no way this line would have been below -3. I see a ton of value on the home team in this spot. Not only does Arizona have the better point differential (compared to Seattle) at this point (+49), they are actually sixth in the league in that department! That's on the strength of two blowout wins, one coming in their last game, which was a 28-3 Monday night massacre of the Jets. Furthermore, Arizona also is #1 in the league in YPG differential right now at +73.7 (Seattle is #2 at +69). It's not as if the Seahawks weren't lucky to survive Atlanta last week, a game they were at home and off a bye. Seattle has covered each of their last three visits to University of Phoenix Stadium. But that's a little bit misleading in the sense that the hideous Ryan Lindley started one of those games. Also, they lost last year's regular season finale, where the result was meaningless to them and Carson Palmer was pulled at halftime. It should be pointed out that turnovers are what doomed the Cardinals in two of their three losses this year. Against Buffalo and the Rams, they turned the ball over five times each. Take better care of the football and they should be just fine here. Note that in the other four games, the Cards haven't turned the ball over at all! In games where the line is three points or less, this team is on a 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS run. Furthermore, they've shown no ill-effects when on a short week, winning and covering both times the week after they've played on MNF the L3 years. Seattle is averaging only 89 yards rushing per game and remember that QB Russell Wilson is not 100 percent. As alluded to above, they were very fortunate to escape w/ a win last week against Atlanta. They won only 26-24, a home game where they were off a bye. Richard Sherman got away w/ a somewhat egregious pass interference in the waning moments against Julio Jones. The Falcons outgained them in the contest as well. In four home games, Arizona's defense has given up an average of just 12.5 PPG. With Seattle's defense, there's a chance Kam Chancellor will not play. 10* Arizona | |||||||
10-23-16 | Patriots v. Steelers +7.5 | Top | 27-16 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 42 m | Show |
10* Pittsburgh (4:25 ET): The "world" figures to be on New England here as not only are the Patriots rolling, but the Steelers are w/o Ben Roethlisberger. That seemingly puts the Black & Gold at a decisive disadvantage, BUT as valuable as Big Ben is, this seems to be a bit of an overadjustment by the oddsmakers. This game was set to be a pick 'em, pre-Roethlisberger injury. For all his own personal exploits, New England QB Tom Brady is only 7-9 ATS as a road favorite of a TD or more in his career. That included a woeful 2-7 ATS mark going back to Week 16 of the 2012 season! They did cover at Cleveland a few weeks ago, but that's the Browns. Even w/ Landry Jones at the helm here, Pittsburgh will be a far more formidable challenge. Take the points. How rare is it to find the Steelers in this price range, at home? The last time they were getting at least a touchdown, in Pittsburgh, was the 2000 season vs. Tennessee. They covered that game, for the record, losing only 23-20. Even getting a FG or more is rare for this team at Heinz Field. They are 5-1-2 ATS the L8 times that's happened including an outright victory LY over Arizona, 25-13, which was w/ Landry Jones starting at QB! They were also a home dog two week prior w/ Mike Vick and pushed against Baltimore, a game they lost by three in overtime. Four of the last seven times they've been a home dog of at least three points, they've won the game outright. Jones proved he could do this last year and he has a tremendous group of skill position players around him to help get the job done. New England is giving up only 15.2 PPG, which is tops in the league right now. But that's also very misleading as they are only 12th in yards per game allowed. As alluded to above, the Steelers have quite the set of skill position players to test this defense. A case could be made that Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown are each the best at their respective positions. Pittsburgh has won all three home games this season. Predictably, the Patriots are the most popular side of the week. This is a chance to buy low, really low, on Pittsburgh. 10* Pittsburgh | |||||||
10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 74 h 32 m | Show |
10* San Diego (4:05 ET): I would think at this point that it's been established that the Chargers are better than their record. I had them last Thursday, as a home dog, when they beat Denver outright. That was a much needed result as the team had started 1-4 SU, but the four losses had come by a TOTAL of 14 points (all by six or less). Every one of those four losses was decided in the final minute. They led Kansas City 27-10 (on the road) entering the 4th quarter, but lost 33-27 in overtime. They gave up a long TD pass late in a 26-22 loss at Indianapolis. Two fourth quarter fumbles were converted into touchdowns by New Orleans in a 35-34 game in Week 4. A 34-31 loss at Oakland saw them blow another lead and botch the potential game-tying FG. Despite the now 2-4 SU record, San Diego has the league's 11th best point differential at +18. I love the way the schedule sets up for the Chargers here. They've been off for 10 days while Atlanta had a tough game in Seattle last week. While the Falcons certainly earned some respect in covering the 7-point spread (lost 26-24), we've consistently seen teams struggle the week after playing the Seahawks. They're the "new Steelers" in that regard. I think it's logical to expect a bit of an Atlanta letdown the week after playing such a tough, physical game. Another break for San Diego here is that this is a late game and not a 1:00 ET start. Also, let us not forget how the Falcons started 5-0 SU last year and went just 3-8 SU the rest of the way. Maybe the win their weak division (NFC South) by default, but I'm still not entirely sold on this team. This game has all the makings of a shootout. I know San Diego gained only 265 total yards last week, but that was against Denver. For the season, Philip Rivers and the offense are averaging 28.8 PPG. They shouldn't have problems moving the ball against an Atlanta defense that is 24th in yards and 26th in points allowed. I love rookie TE Hunter Henry. Were it not for a fluky-good rate on third downs, the Falcons defensive numbers might look even worse. They have six starters either in their first or second year. The Chargers have covered six straight times as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points. Atlanta is just 2-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points the L3 seasons. San Diego has not won - or covered - against Atlanta dating all the way back to 1988! That has to change, right? 10* San Diego | |||||||
10-23-16 | Bucs v. 49ers +1 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -108 | 63 h 16 m | Show |
8* San Francisco (4:05 ET): Tampa Bay opened as a road favorite in this game. How rare is that? Well, the Bucs haven't been a road favorite since Week 1 of the 2013 season! They are just 2-7 SU and ATS the L9 times in the chalk role, period, including an outright loss at home to the Rams a couple of weeks ago. Now the 49ers will rarely receive my endorsement, but this happens to be one of the select times I think they should be favored this season. It's been an ugly stretch of football for Chip Kelly's team which has lost five in a row, failing to cover every time in the process. Note they have a YTD point differential of -58, which includes a 28-0 win in the opener against the Rams. However, Tampa Bay isn't too far ahead of that, having been outscored by 48 pts thus far, in one less game. As mentioned before, they lost to the Rams. Some sharp money has shown up on the Niners here and I agree w/ the line move. Tampa is off its bye. They've already won twice on the road, over Atlanta and Carolina, but those are both division opponents (i.e. they are familiar with those venues). Making this team unattractive in this price range is the fact they have been held to 17 pts or fewer three times in five games. Twice they've been held to only seven! Though they upset Carolina two weeks ago on Monday Night Football, they were outgained in that contest 414-315. What enabled them to prevail 17-14 as six-point dogs was a +4 turnover margin. Keep in mind that they faced Derek Anderson and not Cam Newton as well. Colin Kaepernick is once again for the 49ers. Controversy aside, he should be. Blaine Gabbert is not a NFL-caliber QB. Not sure what Kelly was thinking there. For a half at least, San Fran looked competent offensively w/ Kaepernick at the helm LW vs. Buffalo. This offense has yet to gain more than 320 total yds in a game this year, which is mind-blowing when you think about it. Thankfully, TB allows over 400 per game on the road. The Niners defense catches a break in that the Bucs' offense will be w/o both Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson. Even with that +4 margin in the last game, TB remains 28th in the league in TO differential. QB Winston is mistake prone. This will be a rare win for the 49ers. 8* San Francisco | |||||||
10-23-16 | Vikings v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 70 h 29 m | Show |
8* Philadelphia (1:00 ET): Oh, how quickly the pendulum has swung on the Eagles. Rookie QB Carson Wentz was the "toast of the town" in Philly after a surprising 3-0 SU start, but the team has come back down to earth following B2B losses to Detroit and Washington. Note that the Eagles were road favorites in both of those SU defeats, but here they are back in a more comfortable role of underdog (at home) where they have already pulled multiple upsets this year (at Chicago, vs. Pittsburgh). Yes, Minnesota is unbeaten and off a bye, not to mention an almost unfathomable 18-3 against the spread since the start of last season. But I expect the sportsbooks to start to "get some back" at the Vikings' expense now that the public has decided to throw its collective support behind them, on the road no less. Take the points. I tip my cap to HC Mike Zimmer and the rest of this Vikings' staff. They have overcome a ton of adversity in getting this team off to a 5-0 SU/ATS start. QB Teddy Bridgewater was lost for the season before it even started. Adrian Peterson hasn't played since Week 2. Sam Bradford is getting a ton of credit right now, but the offense is averaging only a pedestrian 303 YPG. The key has been the defense, which is second in the league in yards allowed and first in points. Ironically, in Philadelphia, it was Wentz getting too much of the credit when it was the defense that was really carrying the Eagles' load. Minnesota is averaging only 71 YPG rushing through five weeks and I see them struggling to move the ball against a defense which is tied for third in points allowed (15.6) and sixth in yards. In a game expected to be low-scoring like this one, a home underdog becomes very attractive. Minnesota has been a road favorite only three times in this 18-3 ATS run of theirs. Those three games have resulted in an outright loss, a three-point win and a game earlier this year (against Tennessee) where they failed to score an offensive touchdown, but somehow managed to pull out a cover. Such inefficiencies will almost assuredly result in an outright loss here. The Eagles haven't played at home in a month, so I expect a real inspired effort from them - on both sides of the ball. One final point that I'd like to make is that Minnesota is a very fortunate +11 in the turnover department so far. That can't be sustained. 8* Philadelphia | |||||||
10-23-16 | Raiders v. Jaguars | Top | 33-16 | Loss | -125 | 70 h 29 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): These were two of the real "trendy" teams coming into 2016. So far, only Oakland (4-2 SU) has lived up to advanced billing, but the Raiders have also been outscored by 11 pts (a division worst) to this point. I faded them last week as they hosted Kansas City and Andy Reid again proved adept at coming off bye as the Chiefs won that one going away, 26-10. Meanwhile, after an 0-3 start, Jacksonville has posted B2B wins. They were off their bye last week and despite falling into a seemingly insurmountable hole, they came away w/ a 17-16 win at Chicago. Long-term, I don't have a ton of faith in either of these two squads, but here I like the value on the Jags as Oakland is receiving far too much support as the short road underdog in an early start time. Oakland's four wins this year have come by 1, 7, 1 and 3 points. They are 3-0 SU on the road, with every win coming out East. That's surprising as historically the Silver and Black have been very bad in these early start times. Even more surprising is what a public team the Raiders have become this year. But they're lucky not to have a losing record. In Week 1, they won at New Orleans on a two-point conversion. After being beaten outright at home by Atlanta in Week 2, they were outgained in both road wins over Tennessee and Baltimore. The win over the Ravens saw them on the wrong end of a rather massive 412-261 discrepancy in total yards. Incredibly, the Raiders have actually been outgained in ALL SIX games this year! When the beat Baltimore, it was courtesy of a last second TD. San Diego botched a potential game-tying field goal the following week. Last week, they were pretty much dominated by the Chiefs and didn't score a single point in the second half. Jacksonville's offense has been tabbed as "disappointing" to this point, but they are only five touchdowns off LY's pace. I can see them making that up here. Expect a big game from QB Blake Bortles going against the league's worst ranked defense in terms of total yards (445 YPG). The Raiders are a bit fortunate that they're giving up "only" 27.2 PPG given that total yardage. Meanwhile, Jacksonville's defense has been much improved this year (8th in yards allowed). Oakland's offense struggles to run the ball and Jacksonville hasn't given up 100 yds rushing in four of five games. 8* Jacksonville | |||||||
10-22-16 | Wyoming v. Nevada +4.5 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 9 m | Show |
10* Nevada (10:30 ET): Both of these teams are off bye weeks. Wyoming is a program that appears to be ascending as they've pulled B2B upsets, first over Colorado State, then unbeaten Air Force. I was on the one over Colorado State, which was a dominant 38-17 victory on the road, so I was a bit surprised to see that the Rams outgained them 481-434. A big difference there was a +2 turnover margin for the Pokes. Turnovers again lent a helping hand in the win over Air Force (were +3) as they won 35-26 (as 13-pt dogs) despite a meager 362-337 edge in total yds. That game was also in Laramie where the Coyboys are now a respectable 12-9 SU since the start of the 2013 campaign. But the road has been a different story as they are 2-13 SU under Craig Bohl and they're actually favored here. We saw how well that worked out last month when they went to Ypsilanti and lost outright to Eastern Michigan 27-24 as six-point chalk. I think you have to fade this team laying points on the road. Meanwhile, Nevada appears to be trending in the wrong direction in the the fourth year under HC Brian Polian. The Wolfpack were coming off B2B 7-6 seasons, but have already lost SU four times this year and are 1-6 ATS. Before the bye, they lost an ugly 14-10 decision at San Jose State where they were 2.5-pt pups. Interesting though is that all three wins this season have come here in Reno (0-4 SU on the road). So homefield advantage definitely plays a significant role in handicapping this matchup. This is homecoming weekend on campus, by the way. It's also a revenge game as Nevada lost LY in Laramie, 28-21 as a six-point favorite. Now, a year later, they find themselves basically in the same price range at home! One thing Nevada does well is protect the football. They've turned it over only four times all season! Wyoming has forced 14 TO's, so keep an eye on that battle during this game. Presuming Nevada can continue to protect the ball, they should be in good shape. Back to Wyoming's difficulty winning games on the road. They've given up an average of 510 YPG in visits to Nebraska, Eastern Michigan and Colorado State thus far. That outright loss at EMU was the first and only time they've been favored in a road game under Bohl. Meanwhile, this is just the fourth time in the L2 years that Nevada has been a home dog. The previous three times were to Boise State & a pair of Pac 12 teams. Super value here. 10* Nevada | |||||||
10-22-16 | Dodgers v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
8* Run Line Chi Cubs (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Cubs +1.5. There is no denying Clayton Kershaw's exploits or value to the Dodgers. The team is 4-0 this postseason in games that he pitches (including his save in Gm 5 of the LDS) and just 1-5 otherwise. But with the Cubs now favored to take this series and back at home for Game 6, being able to get an additional run and a half seems like a real bargain to me. It's not like the Cubs don't have a strong pitcher going in this spot in their own right. Kyle Hendricks has a 1.41 ERA and 0.889 WHIP at the Friendly Confines this season and though he took the loss opposite Kershaw in Game 2, it was 1-0. I had the Under in that matchup, but here I see the Cubs again doing no worse than a one-run loss and the possibility of them moving on to their first World Series since 1945. Take the +1.5. The Cubs offense, or rather lack of it, had been the focal point of this series before they took Games 4 and 5. I was on them in both of those spots (won 10-2 and 8-4) and made mention that the Dodgers offense hadn't exactly been hitting the cover off the ball either. This postseason has seen LA average only 3.6 runs per game w/ a .228 team batting average. Like the Cubs, all offensive numbers are down from the regular season. Now they must go to the venue where visitors scored the fewest runs in the regular season. Save for a late inning outburst against Aroldis Chapman in Gm 1, the LA lineup did very little in the first two games of the series. Of course, the Cubs gave up only 3.0 rpg in the reg season here at home and Hendricks was a major reason for that. Though he hasn't gone particularly deep in either postseason start thus far, Hendricks did allow only three hits in 5 1/3 IP in Game 2. Since August 1st, he's allowed 2 ER or less in 12 of 13 starts. Kershaw's exploits are well-known, but take note that all three of his postseason victories have come by exactly one run! In fact, half of his starts this year (12 of 24) have been ended up being one-run games! So, the run line really seems like the right way to go here. Also, let us not forget about the fact the Cubs are 60-25 this season at home. They're also 16-5 when taking the field w/ a day off. I would not be the least bit surprised to see the Cubs finish off the Dodgers tonight. 8* Run Line Chi Cubs (+1.5) | |||||||
10-22-16 | Oklahoma v. Texas Tech +14 | Top | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 54 h 30 m | Show |
10* Texas Tech (8:00 ET): The Red Raiders are off one of the poorest offensive performances of the Kliff Kingsbury era last week as they were held to "only" 379 yards total by West Virginia (almost all of them passing obviously). That's 280 YPG fewer than what they came in averaging for the season, not to mention 33 pts under their season average. Furthermore, they were held to just 1.55 yards per drive and 4.9 yards per play, their lowest averages in any game in the past two seasons. Things won't get any easier this week as Oklahoma comes calling to Lubbock, but I simply don't see any way that Texas Tech doesn't improve upon LW's offensive disappointment and this is certainly a ton of points to be catching here at home. It's important to note that West Virginia was off a bye last week. Meanwhile, Texas Tech was coming off a crushing 44-38 loss at Kansas State where they had a massive 592-335 edge in total yards. It was obviously going to be very tough for the Red Raiders to get back up "off the mat" for that WVU game. But here, emotions should be high as Baker Mayfield returns to campus, now quarterbacking the enemy. This figures to be the big storyline Saturday night. When Mayfield returned here in 2014, simply as an OU transfer that was sitting out & not playing, he was run out of a local restaurant (not making this up!) and booed vociferously on the sidelines. While Mayfield has had a lot of success in Norman, Tech has a more than capable signal caller of their own, that being Patrick Mahomes, who currently leads the nation in passing yardage (2,579). His 21 TD passes are also tops among Big 12 QB's. Mahomes did not appear to be at 100% LW vs. West Virginia, which probably played a big role in the team failing to score 50 pts for the first time in its last TEN home games. So Oklahoma's defense certainly figures to have its hands full Saturday night. While the Sooners have won three straight, two of those wins came by six points or less (TCU, Texas) and then last week was a favorable spot at home vs. Kansas State. This three-game win streak should not mask the fact that Bob Stoops' team has been a major disappointment in 2016, already having suffered crushing losses to Houston and Ohio State, neither of which was a "true" road game. TCU was the only "true" road game so far and they gave up 46 points there, part of a three-game stretch where they allowed 40+ points every time out. In what figures to be a high-scoring affair, Texas Tech will get enough to stay within this generous number. 10* Texas Tech | |||||||
10-22-16 | Arkansas v. Auburn -9.5 | Top | 3-56 | Win | 100 | 53 h 40 m | Show |
8* Auburn (6:00 ET): This is a very interesting line, isn't it? Both teams come in ranked in the Top 25 (Auburn 21st, Arkansas 17th) and the Hogs have a slightly better overall record (5-2 SU, 4-2 SU), yet come in as a pretty sizable underdog here in Jordan-Hare. Brett Bielema's Razorbacks already have a couple of SU dog wins to their credit, one at TCU and then last week at home over Ole Miss. But, of course, the reason Arkansas has one more win than Auburn does at the moment is due to the fact the latter had LW off. I think the bye week is a huge advantage as the Tigers have had two full weeks to prepare while it's absolutely fair to question what Arkansas will have left in the tank following a brutal gauntlet that has included A&M, Bama and Ole Miss in the L4 weeks. Lay the points here. I should have probably mentioned this in the UNC writeup as well, but there's something to be said about a team not yet having had its bye at this point in the season. Like North Carolina, Arkansas now finds itself playing for an eighth consecutive week. (Both teams are off next week). That can catch up w/ you, especially in this rugged SEC West. Meanwhile, Auburn is off a bye and at home, giving them significant edges. Interestingly, when these teams met LY, the opposite held true. Arkansas was off a bye and that probably played a significant role in them being able to pull out a 54-46 win in four overtimes. While that game may have been close, 11 of the past 15 Arkansas-Auburn meetings have been decided by 17+ points! Two years ago here in Jordan-Hare, it was 45-21 Auburn w/ a 595-328 edge in total yards. Auburn is 5-0 SU under HC Gus Malzahn w/ an extra week to prepare, including three victories over Top 25 teams! Auburn just might be the strongest two-loss team in the country right now. Those two losses have been to Clemson and Texas A&M, both of whom are unbeaten. Now Arkansas probably would scream "what about us?" as their two losses have been to A&M and Alabama. But the Hogs defense has looked very bad in the three games it has played against top level competition, giving up 572 yards to TCU, 591 yards against A&M and 517 yards to Alabama. Before the bye, Auburn was very impressive as they went to Starkville and thrashed Mississippi State 38-14 in the team's first "true" road game of the season. This defense has looked very impressive this year in giving up only 10 touchdowns total. So far, A&M is the only team to get to 20 points against them. The Tigers average 263 yards rushing per game, and that includes gaining only 83 vs. Clemson, so I expect them to gash this Arkansas defense. 8* Auburn | |||||||
10-22-16 | TCU +6.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 49 h 24 m | Show |
10* TCU (3:30 ET): As we approach the second to last Saturday in October, there are only 11 FBS teams still undefeated. One is 5-0 West Virginia, but in all due respect, the Mountaineers may be the weakest of the bunch, at least among the Power 5 schools. Now, I say that fully aware of what they did to Texas Tech last weekend. The Mounties went to Lubbock and destroyed the Red Raiders, 48-17 in a game the oddsmakers rated as a virtual pick 'em. But that was somewhat of an ideal setup for Dana Holgerson's team as they were coming off a bye and Texas Tech was off a brutal 44-38 loss to Kansas State (where it had a 592-335 edge in total yds). Here, WVU returns home but coming in will be a rested TCU squad (had last wk off) that I believe is their toughest opponent to date. Take the points as Gary Patterson teams are usually a great value as a dog. Coming off an impressive 11-2 SU campaign in 2015, TCU already has two losses on its resume this year, but those came against Arkansas and Oklahoma. While both losses took place in Ft. Worth, they came by a total of nine points (Arkansas game went to OT). Also, I'd consider those teams to be stronger than WVU despite what the records might say. The Horned Frogs somewhat sleepwalked their way to a 24-23 win at Kansas two weeks ago, but every other game has seen them score at least 33 points. That makes them an ideal underdog call, especially considering they were a perfect 5 for 5 ATS in that role prior to coming up just short at home vs. Oklahoma a few weeks ago. The Horned Frogs are outgaining opponents by a healthy 107 YPG this year and still gained 1100+ yards in the two losses. Last year, they destroyed West Virginia 40-10 as 14-point favorites. West Virginia still being unbeaten isn't that big of a surprise considering LW was the first time they had to play a "true" road game. As already noted, they did so w/ an extra week to prepare. Plus, Texas Tech QB Patrick Mahomes was not 100%. That probably explains why the Mountaineers were able to hold the Red Raiders to 280 yards and 38 points below their respective season averages. It is surprising to see a defense that lost NINE starters from a year ago be this productive as the odd 3-3-5 alignment seems to be working. But despite allowing only 19.4 PPG, WVU is still allowing 411 YPG and I look for them to struggle against QB Kenny Hill and the TCU offense. The Mountaineers have two close wins to their credit this year, 17-16 over Kansas State and 35-32 over BYU. Furthermore, they are just 3-6 ATS the L3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 10* TCU | |||||||
10-22-16 | Colorado v. Stanford -1.5 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -115 | 50 h 41 m | Show |
8* Stanford (3:00 ET): At the beginning of this season, or even a a month ago for that matter, who would have thought Stanford would barely be favored to beat Colorado here in Palo Alto? And, furthermore, as a small dog the Buffs seem to be getting the lions' share of the money. That's all due to the fact they are a perfect 7-0 against the spread to this point (nation's lone unbeaten ATS team) after another blowout win last week, 40-16 over Arizona State. But that was in Boulder. Both CU SU losses this year (Michigan, USC) have taken place on the road and their one "true" road win came against Oregon by only three points. I feel the market has shifted too far in favor of Mike MacIntyre's team and too far against David Shaw's. I'll gladly lay the very short number. It's easy to forget now, but Stanford came into this season ranked #8 in the country and was thought to be a legit CFP contender. That all changed w/ the 44-6 whitewashing at the hands of Washington (I had the Huskies there!) and then came a stunning 42-16 loss to Washington State here at home the following week. Even during the team's 3-0 SU start, they were not particularly impressive. We all know about the extreme fortune involved in them covering at UCLA (who is another Pac 12 disappointment). But the offense was also held under 300 total yds by Kansas State and to 109 yds passing against USC in the first two games. It took a yeoman's effort by the defense in LW's 17-10 upset of Notre Dame (D scored BOTH TD's), but they got the job done even w/o star RB Christian McCaffery. There is a chance that McCaffery may miss this game as well. Regardless, the play stands. The key here will be the Stanford defense. In the team's four wins this season, they have allowed 13 pts or less. In the two losses, they've allowed 44 and 42 points. Colorado has topped 40 in each of its three Pac 12 wins, but those were against Oregon, Oregon State and Arizona State, all at home. They were held to only 17 pts at USC and the 28 pts scored against Michigan came w/ a special teams TD as the offense was held to only 325 yds in that game, gaining roughly one-third of that on two pass plays. USC outgained them 539-371 two weeks ago and that probably "should have" been a bigger loss considering USC was inside CU 5-yd line when they decided to run out the clock and also turned the ball over four times. Stanford has taken on the harder schedule to this point, has a significant edge on special teams (especially if McCaffery is back) and we saw last week what CB Quenton Meeks means to this defense (he returned an INT for a TD) after missing several games. 8* Stanford | |||||||
10-22-16 | North Carolina v. Virginia +9.5 | Top | 35-14 | Loss | -102 | 50 h 40 m | Show |
8* Virginia (3:00 ET): The "sharp" money that came in on Virginia last week turned out be not all that sharp as the Hoos fell here in Charlottesville, 45-31 to Pitt. But they get another home game this week, this one against North Carolina in what is billed as "the oldest rivalry in the South" (game played every year since 1919!). The Tar Heels have owned the rivalry of late, winning six straight by an average of 19 points per game, and come in "flying high" off a 20-13 win over Miami that was far more dominant than the final score lets on. But laying this many points in the second of B2B road games can be tricky, especially when UNC has two wins by two points or less already this year. Take the points here and an outright upset is a distinct possibility. The Bronco Mendenhall era certainly got off to a rather auspicious start as UVA stood at 0-3 w/ a loss to FCS Richmond in the season opener. Losing at Oregon, even though the Ducks are in a down year, is still excusable and a three-point loss at UConn saw the Cavaliers finish w/ a 381-277 edge in total yards (blew 10-3 fourth quarter lead). The season turned around when the offense put up 569 total yards and 49 points in a blowout win over Central Michigan here at home. Then came a 34-20 win at Duke that made it four consecutive covers. But last week was a tough one as a defense which had been solid against the run the previous three weeks got gashed for 200+ yds by a strong Pitt run game. However, it should be noted that UVA led that game 28-21 very late in the first half before Pitt scored two TDs, one an INT return w/ just four seconds to go before halftime, which really swung the game. Despite that non-cover, the Cavaliers remain one of the best underdog bets in the entire country at 17-4 ATS the L3 seasons! North Carolina's three ACC wins have come by a total of 10 points, so that certainly makes them appear to be a shaky favorite, especially in this price range. The defense really stepped up LW in Coral Gables vs. Miami, but let us not forget what happened to this team the previous week, at home. They were destroyed 34-3 by Va Tech and held to just 131 total yds of offense! The week before that was a very lucky win against Florida State on a long FG w/ no time remaining. The week before that, they rallied back from a 13-point fourth quarter deficit against Pitt. Not all the news was good LW either as top WR Mack Hollins was lost to a season-ending collarbone injury. 8* Virginia | |||||||
10-22-16 | Syracuse v. Boston College -4.5 | Top | 28-20 | Loss | -106 | 47 h 11 m | Show |
10* Boston College (12:30 ET): Initially, it might seem odd to find a team that's lost its last 11 ACC games favored in conference play. But let's examine that 11-game losing streak, shall we? Five of the losses have been by three points or less. That certainly doesn't include the last two where BC has been bludgeoned by Va Tech and Clemson to the tune of 105-10. But they've had more than two full weeks to recover from the embarrassing 56-10 setback to the latter here in Chesnut Hill. This week, the Eagles are catching Syracuse in a prime letdown spot, that being a week removed from a somewhat stunning 31-17 upset of Va Tech (as 22.5-pt dogs!) in the Carrier Dome. This is also a revenge spot for the home team, who lost to the Orange in LY's finale, 20-17 as a three-point road choice. A better BC team is now being asked to lay a near identical number on its home field. Their last ACC win did come against this opponent, 28-7 in 2014's season finale, here at home. Lay the points. Boston College had the #1 defense in the country last year as they allowed just 17.2 points and 276 yards per game. As a result, their coordinator on that side of the ball, Don Brown, was hired away by Michigan. Save for the two aforementioned losses to Va Tech & Clemson, the stop unit has remained strong, having allowed 17 pts or less in the other four games. The offense was ranked third worst in FBS last year and remains a work in progress, but has been able to put up good numbers against the weaker opponents so far. Syracuse does not have a good defense as they allow 474 yds per game and was infamously shredded by Louisville to the tune of 847 yards! The three games in which BC has been favored thus far have seen them win by an average of 27.7 PPG! Going into LW, Syracuse had just one win over a FBS foe (UConn) and was 1-4 SU/ATS its last five games. Shockingly, they put up 561 yards against a very good Virginia Tech defense. But that was in the Carrier Dome. This is a program w/ just one ACC road win the L3 seasons, that being against Wake Forest in 2014. Since then, they've lost eight straight on the conference road by an average of more than 17 PPG. Their only ACC win LY was against BC, 20-17, and as mentioned earlier they were actually three-point home dogs in that one. I look for the revenge angle to be strong here and love the setup w/ BC having the extra week to prepare while Syracuse is off its biggest win in some time and thus prone to a letdown. Looking at the rest of BC's schedule, they have to figure this is their best shot at ending the ACC losing streak. I expect perhaps their best game of the season. 10* Boston College | |||||||
10-21-16 | Oregon +3 v. California | Top | 49-52 | Push | 0 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
10* Oregon (10:30 ET): This game features quite possibly the highest total I have ever tracked and could close above 90 points (currently 89.5). So, certainly, we should expect a lot of scoring when Oregon and Cal take the field Friday night in Berkeley. We should also expect a desperate Ducks team as HC Mark Helfrich finds himself coaching for his job, despite being only two years removed from an appearance in the National Title Game. The season so far has been a disaster in Eugene w/ UO having lost four straight coming into tonight while allowing an almost unspeakable 49.25 points per game. But, having had last week off to recoup, I feel we're likely to see a far better showing Friday night. Like most Pac 12 rivals, Oregon has owned Cal through the years. While the Ducks' last three opponents have all been able to reverse the trends, the difference here is that the Bears are not a program on the upswing. Take the points. Oregon has taken 15 of the previous 19 head to head meetings including seven straight by an average of 26 points per game. Last year was a 44-28 drubbing in Eugene (UO was favored by four points) and that was w/ Cal having Jared Goff under center. Certainly, the Oregon programs seems to be trending in the wrong direction, but it's difficult to ignore some numbers. They are 9-2 SU L11 weekday games, 27-3 SU L30 Pac 12 road games and 4-1 ATS the L3 seasons as an underdog. Prior to the start of the year, no one would have thought the Ducks would be the dog in this game. Furthermore, they are getting almost no public support here. Needless to say, it has been a very long time since an Oregon football team has lost four straight games. Note that two of the losses have come by a field goal and those were against better teams than Cal (Nebraska, Colorado). Cal is a team as inept defensively as Oregon, so that helps. The Bears last five games have all been decided by a TD or less and you might recall that I went against them two weeks ago at Oregon State when they lost outright, as 13-pt favorites, 47-44. It was a game they never led, gave up 559 yds (to the worst team in the conference) and trailed by 17 in the fourth quarter. They too had last week off. Prior to losing outright in Corvallis, Cal was lucky to beat Utah here at home as they needed a goal line stand to close the game. Prior to that, they allowed 51 pts in a loss to Arizona State. Oregon has been rightfully mocked for giving up 41.8 PPG this year, but Cal is right there with them at 40.0. Something to take note of w/ the Bears is the injury situation. QB Davis Webb hurt his hand vs. OSU and HC Sonny Dykes said that had the team played last week, Webb would have sat out. Also, RB Vic Enwere is done for the season after breaking his foot vs. OSU. Look for the underdog to simply outscore the favorite in this one, a game Helfrich must have. 10* Oregon | |||||||
10-21-16 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Islanders | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
8* Puck Line Arizona (7:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Coyotes +1.5. The Yotes opened their season w/ a 4-3 win on home ice over Philadelphia. But since embarking on what will be a six-game East Coast swing, things have not gone so well. They've dropped the first two games on the trip, at Ottawa and Montreal, giving up 12 goals in the process. Now they return Stateside to take on an Islanders club that has had its own set of issues out of the box. You may have noticed that it took awhile for the oddsmakers to act here as there was no line until this morning. That's because it took awhile for Arizona to decide who would be starting between the pipes. Turns out that honor falls to Luis Domingue. It has not been a good start to the season for Domingue as he was pulled early last night in Montreal after giving up four goals on just 19 shots. That came on the heels of a poor relief effort in the Ottawa game where he allowed three goals on just 11 shots in less than 12 minutes of ice time. A woeful .767 save percentage won't keep you in this league for long, but I expect the young goaltender to bounce back tonight. In last year's rookie season, he looked good at time, especially in January where he posted six wins, including a shutout, and a 2.20 GAA. That played a major role in the club signing him to a two-year deal. Domingue's first career shutout, ironically, came at the Islanders' expense. It was a 1-0 win in the desert last December. You may think that the Coyotes are at a big disadvantage here playing w/o rest, but take note of the fact that NY's last opponent (San Jose) also came to Brooklyn w/o rest and wound up pulling out a 3-2 victory. That was after the Sharks had given up seven goals the previous night. It was the Isles that looked flat in that one as they managed only four shots on goal in the first period and 23 total. This is a team that has scored only nine goals in four games, so getting an additional 1.5 to go against them seems like a nice luxury to have. 8* Puck Line Arizona (+1.5) | |||||||
10-20-16 | BYU +7.5 v. Boise State | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
10* BYU (10:15 ET): BYU, now an independent, has taken on quite the daunting schedule to this point. They were a go against for me last Friday as they were caught laying a season-high 7.5 points to Mississippi State (won by seven in double OT). Except for a 31-14 win over Michigan State (in East Lansing), every BYU game has been close this year as in decided by seven points or less. Thus, with them now back in the more comfortable underdog role this week, I'm on them and taking the points. Boise State comes in undefeated, but even w/ this game taking on the blue turf, they seem overvalued. Two of their wins have been by five points or less including last Saturday night here vs. Colorado State. The competition they've faced thus far is much weaker than what BYU has seen. Take the points. This is the first time all year that Boise State isn't being asked to lay double digits. Supporters of the Broncos may want to point to that and say "value," but to me, it speaks to the relatively low level of competition BSU has faced so far. Their most impressive win was against Washington State (think about that statement for a second!), 31-28 as 13-pt chalk. Including that non-cover, they're only 1-4 ATS the L5 weeks. While it's true the defense made things more interesting than they should have vs. Colorado State (allowed 20 4Q points), it's also true that the offense was held to only one TD in the first half. This will be the toughest opponent that Boise faces during the regular season and they're doing so on a short week. These teams have met each of the last four years w/ the home team winning SU every time. But BYU did lose by only one point (7-6!) in a visit back in 2012. Last year in Provo, they won 35-23 as three-point favorites, so using that line as a barometer, it would appear to be some value in taking the points here. Boise State's record is what's inflated this line for sure and it should be pointed out BYU is 9-4 ATS its L13 road games. I keep coming back to the schedule, which has seen BYU take on Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, Toledo, Michigan State and Mississippi State. That's got to be the toughest schedule any team in the country has faced and the Cougars' three losses have come by a TOTAL of seven points. 10* BYU | |||||||
10-20-16 | Bears +8.5 v. Packers | Top | 10-26 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:25 ET): With the Cubs fighting for their playoff lives out in LA, little attention is likely to be paid to Chicago's football team this evening, but I feel they're a good value getting more than a touchdown against a Green Bay team that no longer has the look of a Super Bowl contender. As dire as things may look for the Bears right now at 1-5 (both SU and ATS), they've actually outgained each of their L2 opponents (Indianapolis & Jacksonville) only to come up just short on the scoreboard in both instances. For an uninspired a choice as Brian Hoyer may seem to be for this team, he's actually the first Bears QB in HISTORY to throw for 300+ yards in four consecutive games. I'm taking the points here. Though they're being outscored by exactly one touchdown per game, the Bears have actually outgained their opponents this year (by roughly 30 yards per game). Moving the ball has not really been an issue as two weeks ago, they gained over 500 total yds against an admittedly shoddy Colts defense. That's actually the only game though that they've scored more than 20 pts this season. But that's a little unfair as they are actually dead last in yards per point (22.3), a highly unsustainable number and a sign that increased scoring should be on the horizon. In that 29-23 loss to the Colts, they finished w/ a +126 edge in total yards, but gave up 10 points late to lose the game. Last week hosting Jacksonville was even more painful as they blew a 13-0 lead in the fourth quarter, again giving up 10 pts in the final five minutes, including the GW TD on a 51-yd TD pass w/ just 2:49 remaining. This team is better than its record, in my opinion. Meanwhile, there's major trouble w/ this Packers offense. Last week's 30-16 home loss to Dallas was a real "eye-opener" for me as GB was thoroughly dominated. This offense, once considered a juggernaut, has really struggled as well and that includes QB Aaron Rodgers. The Pack scored only one TD in four red zone opportunities LW and Rodgers turned it over twice himself. Running the ball has been a problem as injuries have decimated their backfield to the point they had to bring in Knile Davis from the Chiefs. Last week saw GB run for only 78 yds on 24 carries. Speaking of injuries, their defense may be w/o their three top cornerbacks in this game. The Bears will score more than anticipated and keep this one close throughout. 8* Chicago | |||||||
10-20-16 | Maple Leafs +1.5 v. Wild | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
6* Puck Line Toronto (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a puck line play only where I am taking the Maple Leafs +1.5. As you probably know, the Leafs have been down in the proverbial dumps the L2 seasons. Last year's 69-point finish had them last in the league. But that gave them the opportunity to select Auston Matthews and already we're starting to see signs of improvement. Much of that is attributable to Matthews himself as the rookie scored four goals on Opening Night. (Granted, the team still lost 5-4 in OT). It was another overtime loss last night, this one in Winnipeg, a game where I easily cashed the Over. The final score there was also 5-4. Given the Leafs have scored exactly four goals in every game and have yet to be beaten in regulation, I feel the PL is a solid choice here. Minnesota opened its year by losing 3-2 at St. Louis. They've since posted B2B wins here at home, the most recent coming by a 6-3 margin over the Quick-less Kings Tuesday night. The other win was of the one-goal variety (4-3) against Winnipeg on Saturday. That was the only game of the three that the Wild have had the edge in shots as they actually gave up 30 to the Kings two nights ago. While the penalty kill is a perfect 13 for 13 so far, the power play is just 2 for 13. Though Wild fans will point to a five-game winning streak over the Leafs as some sort of sign of dominance, note that four of those games were decided by a one-goal margin! Goaltender Devan Dubnyk hasn't been that impressive yet, allowing six goals on 48 shots for an .875 save percentage. He allowed four goals on just 17 shots in his last start. Toronto actually led Winnipeg 4-0 last night. So while it would be easy to write them off in this second game of a back to back, I feel this young team will be quite hungry to take the ice tonight. Matthews may have only one point (an assist last night) in the L2 games, but given the brilliance that we saw in that opening game, I wouldn't expect him to be down for long. Again, both losses this season have come in OT and such a scenario would be fine here. The Leafs are doing a great job at getting the puck on net (34 shots/game). In goal, we're likely to see Jhonas Enroth for the first time this season. I see the Leafs doing no worse than a one-goal loss here. 6* Puck Line Toronto (+1.5). | |||||||
10-20-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech -6 | Top | 16-37 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
8* Virginia Tech (7:00 ET): The Hokies were stunned last week, losing outright as 22.5-pt favorites in the Carrier Dome, to Syracuse. That came on the heels of three consecutive victories where they'd outscored the opposition 137-20, including 34-3 over North Carolina, which looks all the more impressive given what UNC did to Miami last week (more on that momentarily). Prior to last week, Va Tech's only other SU loss this season came at a neutral setting (Bristol, TN) against a Tennessee team they outgained rather significantly (but a -4 TO margin ended up being the difference). After allowing 561 yards to Syracuse, I look for the Hokies defense to bounce back here in Blacksburg, which is one of the toughest places to play at in the entire ACC, especially at night. Lay the points. Miami is off B2B outright losses following a 4-0 SU start. Both losses came at home, which isn't the best sign. This team had not really been tested in its first four games w/ wins over Florida Atlantic, Florida A&M, Applachian State and Georgia Tech. Despite beating Ga Tech 35-21, the edge in total yards was slightly in favor of the Yellow Jackets. The difference for Miami ended up being TWO "scoop and scores" (fumble returns for TDs). Special teams were not as kind the following week vs. Florida State as the 'Canes lost 20-19 due to a blocked XP. The offense also gained a season-low 276 total yds in that loss. Last week, it was the defense's turn to take the blame as they gave up a season-worst 461 total yds in a 20-13 loss to North Carolina. Don't be fooled by the "closeness" of that final score either; it was a 20-3 game at halftime. Miami has beaten Va Tech B2B years and never trailed in either game. But they haven't won three straight over the Hokies since 2000-02. I look for that to stay the case for a number of reasons. One, as I said earlier, the Hokies defense should bounce back. It was just two weeks ago that they held North Carolina to only 131 total yds (in Chapel Hill). That performance against the same team that just dominated Miami's defense should count for something in handicapping this matchup. Two, is the Blacksburg factor. In three home games thus far, Va Tech is outscoring opponents by 36.3 PPG. Three, is that Miami could be w/o as many as three key defensive linemen here, which will be a problem against the tempo of the Va Tech offense. Both of these programs have had success in the past on Thursday nights, but I'll side w/ the Hokies 22-12 ATS mark. 8* Virginia Tech | |||||||
10-17-16 | Jets +8.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-28 | Loss | -130 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
10* NY Jets (8:25 ET): The Jets "fly" into Arizona a desperate team. They're 1-4 SU w/ three losses in a row coming by double digits. The schedule has been quite unforgiving thus far as they've had to play four playoff teams from a year ago and those four opponents account for the losses. The Jets themselves were probably the best team NOT to make the playoffs last year (finished 10-6), but already the playoffs are looking like a pipe dream here in 2016. Thankfully, Arizona also seems to be regressing this year. They did manage to beat the 49ers last time out (11 days ago!) w/o Carson Palmer (who returns tonight), but this team is still only 2-3 SU and has already dropped a pair of home games. While an outright win by the Jets would surprise me somewhat, I think this is simply too many points for a struggling Cardinals team to lay. Last week, the Jets lost to the Steelers by a score of 31-13. But that game was closer than the final score indicates and New York actually led 13-7 late in the first half. The previous two games saw them doomed by turnovers, which essentially all falls on struggling QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. He threw six INT's in the 24-3 loss to the Chiefs and then the team was -3 in TO's in its 27-17 loss to Seattle. Strange as this may seem to write, I think this visit to Arizona actually represents a drop in class from the Jets' previous two opponents. Key is that HC Todd Bowles knows the Cardinals' system having previously served there as the DC. I expect him to bring a lot of pressure against an embattled Arizona offense line, which is likely to be w/o both Evan Mathis and Mike Iupati. Palmer hasn't looked the same this year nor has the Arizona offense. Without their starting QB, the Cards did ring up 33 points against the Niners (which was good for me as I had the Over), but they did so despite only gaining 288 total yards! Note that 17 pts came off turnovers as those three scoring drives totaled only 41 yards! There was a safety as well. Turnovers had been an issue in the previous two games that Palmer has started as the team has TEN of them. I expect them to struggle w/ the Jets strength here, which is the defensive line. In what figures to be a relatively low scoring games, look for the road dog to stay within the number. Not only is Arizona 2-8 ATS its L10 appearances on Monday Night Football, they are 1-11 ATS L12 times they've been a home fave of 7.5 to 10 pts. Don't discount the look ahead factor to Seattle (next Sun night) either. 10* NY Jets | |||||||
10-16-16 | Colts v. Texans -2.5 | Top | 23-26 | Win | 100 | 54 h 29 m | Show |
8* Houston (8:25 ET): The AFC South is once again shaping up as the worst division in the sport. Leading the way currently is Houston at 3-2, but their offense has generally been very bad and they've been outscored by 22 points in those five games. However, I have little respect for an Indianapolis side that has given up 148 points through five games, tied for the worst average in the AFC (alongside the winless Browns). The Colts were outgained LW, 522-396 by Chicago, despite winning 29-23. That was the second time in three weeks they had to rally from a 4th quarter deficit to win. Those happen to be their only wins. I feel that GM Ryan Grigson has done an atrocious job w/ this roster as Andrew Luck is surrounded by a lot of garbage. Even though they are w/o JJ Watt, the Texans defense is still allowing just 20.8 points per game. Here at home, that average drops down to 15.3 PPG. All three teams that have visited NRG Stadium this year have been held to 20 pts or fewer. Even in that embarrassing road loss to New England, the defense allowed only 282 total yards! Last week at Minnesota was the worst performance of the year in giving up 31 pts and 351 yards to an unbeaten team. This will be a far better matchup for Houston as the Indianapolis' offensive line is just putrid, having given up the most sacks in the league. As for the Texans offense, QB Brock Osweiler has really struggled so far. But I think he should lean on Lamar Miller here as the RB is top 10 in rush yardage. So it's only a matter of time before Miller gets into the end zone for the first time. The history of this divisional rivalry has been all Colts w/ them holding a 23-5 SU all-time advantage. But Houston finally snapped a six-game SU and ATS slide w/ a 16-10 win and cover in the second meeting last year. Colts defenders will point to the absence of Andrew Luck in that game. But, as noted above, this is perhaps the worst supporting cast Luck has ever had. The Colts defense ranks 30th in the league in yards allowed (only Saints and Raiders are worse). Not only are they giving up 410.6 YPG, a Pagano era worst, they are allowing 29.6 PPG. I'm calling for Houston's best offensive performance to date and a cover. Lay the points. 8* Houston | |||||||
10-16-16 | Cowboys v. Packers -4 | Top | 30-16 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 25 m | Show |
8* Green Bay (4:25 ET): This looks like a good value on the favorite, which is something I don't often say in this league. But the lookahead line here was Packers -7. In addition to being a public team to begin with, Dallas is off to a somewhat surprising 4-1 SU start. Those two factors have colluded to drop this number somewhat significantly. I think this "Dak Prescott vs. Tony Romo" debate is nonsense and overlooks the simple fact that when the Cowboys win, it's typically because of the vaunted run game. Unfortunately though, America's Team will be going up against the league's toughest defense to run on here as the Pack are allowing just 43 rush yds per game! No opponent has gained more than 50 yards over land against them through four games! The longest run from scrimmage that they've allowed all year is 14 yards! Lay the points here. Green Bay probably deserved to win by a larger margin than 23-16 last week over the Giants. Here at Lambeau, they really took it to the G-Men, outgaining them 406-221. But they gave up a late, relatively meaningless TD in the final 2:30 of the fourth quarter to blow the cover. It was the only time they weren't covering since halfway through the second quarter. One also has to think the final score there would have been worse had Aaron Rodgers not uncharacteristically thrown two interceptions. You could also, pretty easily, make an argument that the Pack should have beaten the Lions by a wider margin than 34-27. That was game they led 31-3 in the first half. This would be their third straight home game, wrapped around a bye week. It's a good spot for Mike McCarthy's team. Dallas is off a very impressive showing as they crushed Cincinnati at home, 28-14. It was their fourth consecutive win and cover after dropping the season opener (to the Giants) by a single point. Note their offense gained only 328 yds against the Giants' defense (Packers were at 406) while the defense gave up 315 yds (Pack allowed only 221). To me, with the home field advantage, Green Bay is a real bargain here. Dallas hasn't beaten many good teams during this run. Two of the four wins came against Chicago and San Francisco. It was a somewhat lucky win at Washington where they were three-point dogs. By comparison, this line looks like a real bargain considering the Packers are significantly better than the Redskins. The Cowboys have lost five in a row overall to the Pack and in their L4 visits to Lambeau, they've been outscored by an average of 18.5 PPG. Green Bay is 16-3 SU its L19 home games, including 8-0 as a fave in the -3.5 to -7 range where they're also 6-1-1 ATS. 8* Green Bay | |||||||
10-16-16 | Chiefs -1 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 50 h 5 m | Show |
10* Kansas City (4:05 ET): Handicapping this matchup is almost identical to last week's GOW selection, Buffalo over the Rams. As was the case last week, we have a team whose record does not properly reflect their true level of play. The idea of the Raiders being 5-1 SU is just as foreign to me as was the potential of a 4-1 SU start for the Rams. Consider that Oakland's four wins this season have come by 12 points - total - and one of those (by seven) was at the expense of Tennessee. Twice they've won games by a single point. Last week, they benefited from more San Diego ineptitude as the Lightning Bolts screwed up the potential game-tying field goal. Given they are just 1-2 ATS as favorites so far, perhaps it should not be a shock to find there's been a change in favoritism for this matchup. But such was the case last week w/ the Bills and the Rams. Normally, I shy away from such moves, but there are exceptions and for a second straight week we have one. The proverbial "cherry on top" here is that we are getting Andy Reid off a bye. Perhaps there is no situation in his long NFL coaching career where he has been more profitable. Reid is 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS his L17 times coming off the bye week. Here, his Chiefs have had two weeks to "stew" over an embarrassing defeat that took place on a Sunday night, 43-14, at the hands of the Steelers. I anticipate we'll see a much different team here. Save for the 4th quarter against San Diego in the opener, we haven't seen much from Alex Smith and the rest of the offense this season. But I'll call for a breakout performance here against one of the league's weakest defenses. Oakland ranks 25th in points (27.4) and are last (32nd) in yards (452.6) per game. They are actually allowing roughly 30 YPG more than the next worst team. The Chiefs look to be getting RB Jamaal Charles back for this critical AFC West matchup. Meanwhile, the Raiders are going to be w/o their starting RB - Latavius Murray - for a second straight game. Also missing will be pair of right tackles, Vadal Alexander and Menelik Watson. Rain is expected for this game and that may limit what Oakland can do offensively. Again, this is a team that has been very lucky to pull out wins over New Orleans (2-pt conversion), Baltimore (-151 in total yds, -12 in first downs) and San Diego (botched FG). Despite the 4-1 SU record, the Raiders are actually -61 in YPG differential and only +5 in point differential. KC is 4-2 SU/ATS as a road fave of three points or less the L2 seasons. 10* Kansas City | |||||||
10-16-16 | Bengals +9 v. Patriots | Top | 17-35 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 33 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (1:00 ET): If you're like me and view teams like stocks, then this is a supremely "buy low" situation on the Bengals. Marvin Lewis' team really got hammered last week, losing 28-14 in Dallas, a game they actually closed as a 2.5-pt favorite. The loss dropped them to 2-3 straight up and now the market has predictably moved against them for this trip to Foxboro. Of course, that's also due to the performance we saw LW from Tom Brady in his much publicized return from a four-game suspension. He completed 28 of his 40 pass attempts for 400+ yards and three touchdowns. But that came at the expense of the winless Browns. Safe to say, we won't find a bigger spread for Cincinnati all season. Take the points. The Bengals have made the playoffs each of the last five seasons. Their Wild Card flameouts in each of those five years are well known. To make it back for a sixth straight year and gain that elusive first postseason victory under HC Lewis will now take some work. But it should be noted that they have taken on quite the challenging schedule thus far. Their three losses have come against Pittsburgh, Denver and Dallas, who are a collective 12-4 SU. They were favored against two of those teams and were only getting three points in Pittsburgh (lost by eight). I have the Steelers rated a bit better than the Patriots for the record. I understand why the line is this high, but it's a classic overadjustment. This will be just the FIFTH time since the start of the 2011 season that Cincy is getting seven points or more at the betting window. The last time was 2014 and they went to New Orleans and won outright, 27-10. Again, I'm not going to go tout the Patriots too much for what they did last week. They were facing a Cleveland team that was already the worst in the league, down numerous players, and during the course of the game the Browns lost TWO QB's to injury! The lookahead line for this game (posted in the preseason) had New England laying only four points. So again, there's been a seismic shift in public perception on the Bengals. Andy Dalton, for the record, is 22-10 ATS all-time as a dog. It's not as if the Bengals are playing that poorly. They are 10th in yards per game on offense and 11th in yards allowed on defense. New England is among the most public of plays this week and I'll fade them. 10* Cincinnati | |||||||
10-16-16 | Browns +7.5 v. Titans | Top | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 98 h 33 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): It was a near unprecedented comedy of errors for the Browns LW vs. New England. They were obviously big underdogs coming into the game, but making matters worse was that Tom Brady looked like he was in "mid-season form" (400+ yds) in his first start of 2016. Then, to add injury to insult, the Browns lost not one (Cody Kessler), but two (Charlie Whitehurst) quarterbacks of their own. Kessler will start for a fourth straight time this week. Save for the debacle hosting the Patriots, Cleveland has generally been a competitive team despite their winless record.They led Baltimore 20-0 in Week 2 (lost 25-20 w/ an INT thrown at the goal line on the final play). They took Miami to overtime (I had them +10 there). Washington, they led going into the fourth quarter as well. I'm taking the points here against a team unaccustomed to laying them. The favorite here is Tennessee and this price range is certainly uncharted waters in the Mike Mularkey era. While I concede it might be a tad bit difficult to make a case for the Browns, this is more of a play AGAINST the Titans anyway. I have stumped for the Titans previously, but that's only when taking points. Last week, as a small road dog, they smashed Miami 30-17 w/ a 2:1 edge in total yards. It was arguably the best performance by this football team in many years. I had them in their only other win this year, which was 17-16 over Detroit as six-point dogs. Since the start of the 2014 season, the Titans are an incredibly awful 11-26 ATS overall. Not only will this be the first time they are favored in 2016, it is just the fifth time they are favored in the L38 games! They are just 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS the previous four occasions w/ both SU wins coming over the Jaguars by a combined five points! This will be just the second time since 2011 that they are being asked to lay seven points to an opponent! It's rare to find a team playing w/ revenge against the Browns, but the Titans have a double dose of it here, believe it or not. Because of the respective "last place schedules," these teams have met each of the past two seasons. Cleveland has won both games w/ the line as pick 'em each time. So, that actually makes Tennessee 1-5 ATS as a dog or pick the L3 seasons. Now do I expect the Titans to win this game? Yes. But Cleveland has generally been competitive thus far and this is their weakest opponent to date. A total overlay here w/ a bad team being favored by too many points. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
10-16-16 | Steelers v. Dolphins +7.5 | Top | 15-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 32 m | Show |
10* Miami (1:00 ET): Things are going South rather quickly for Miami in year one under Adam Gase. The team's lone win came against Cleveland and required overtime. They did not cover that game (were 10-pt favorites and I went against them), nor did they in bad losses to Cincinnati (22-7) and Tennessee (30-17) the L2 weeks. Particularly embarrassing is how they were pretty much dominated here at home vs. the Titans last Sunday. They were outgained basically 2:1 by a fellow one-win team. Really, one would have to go all the way back to Week 1 to find Miami's "best" performance, that being a 12-10 loss at Seattle, a game they probably should have won SU as 10.5 pt dogs. Remember, they were down big at the half against New England. This all being said, I'm going to advocate taking the points here, as it's a lot of them w/ a desperate side. While Miami is 1-4 SU/ATS, Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU/ATS. Their lone loss was that headscratcher, on the road, to Philadelphia 34-3. Three of the four wins have come by double digits, including last week's over the Jets, 31-13. But note that they actually trailed in the 1H of that game (13-7) before scoring a TD in the final minute before halftime. (The second half was "all them.") I think most people will view this as an "easy win" for Pittsburgh, but a few things are working against them. One is WR Sammie Coates has a fractured finger. Two, they are officially the most public side of the week (as of Saturday). Under Mike Tomlin, the Black and Gold are just 3-10 ATS as road faves of 7 pts or more. In the final week of last season, they snapped a nine-game ATS skid (four outright losses!) in the role w/ a win over the hapless Browns. This is also a lookahead for Pittsburgh as they host New England next week. Meanwhile, there's no such thing as a lookahead for a 1-4 SU team. This is the second of what will be four consecutive home games for Miami. Typically, they haven't been very strong at home off a home loss, but this is a new regime. The offense has been quite disappointing, QB Ryan Tannehill in particular, but note this will be the first time all season that the team's top two offensive lineman (Branden Albert & Mike Pouncey) will play together. Pittsburgh's defense is only 25th in yards per game allowed and was bailed out somewhat LW by the Jets going 2 for 12 on third and fourth down. That unit will be w/o Cam Heyward here as the DE is missing a game for the 1st time in his career. 10* Miami | |||||||
10-15-16 | UCLA +7.5 v. Washington State | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 59 m | Show |
8* UCLA (10:30 ET): These two Pac 12 rivals come off very different results last week. UCLA, despite a 444-275 edge in total yards, lost 23-20 (as seven-point favorites) at Arizona State. Even worse, Jim Mora may have lost superstar QB Josh Rosen. The sophomore is listed as questionable for this game, but regardless I like the Bruins in this spot as they're more than capable of pulling the upset with or without Rosen. This is a big revenge game for them as LY they lost to Washington State, 31-27 (nine-point favorites) at the Rose Bowl. Wazzu has won three in a row, by a combined score of 149-55, after a shockingly dominant upset of Stanford LW (42-16 as seven-point pups). But they are somewhat unaccustomed to this level of favoritism in Pac 12 play under HC Mike Price. Take the points. UCLA's 3-3 SU record shocks me. This is a team I had doing quite well this year. They were my pick to win the Pac 12 South. All three losses have been particularly brutal. They dropped the opener to Texas A&M in overtime and we all know about the debacle vs. Stanford, which by season's end will most certainly be the "worst beat" of the year in College Football. Last week, however, may have been a new low as they rushed for -1 yard (445 yds passing). The defense played well at least, holding ASU to just 275 total yards. I know things look dire now due to Rosen's status, but to me this is an outstanding "buy low" opportunity. A 1-9 ATS record over the L10 games can only improve. I already mentioned the revenge angle that is in play here. They actually outgained Wazzu 554-426 in LY's 31-27 loss, which was decided on a TD pass w/ three seconds remaining. Suffice to say, the L2 weeks have arguably been the finest B2B games during Price's five year tenure here in Pullman. They have destroyed the two perennial Pac 12 North powers, Oregon and Stanford, putting over 1,000 yards of total offense on the board (93 points scored!). But this will be a better and hungrier defense they are facing here. It is definitely worth noting that Oregon and Stanford are definitely in the midst of down years. The Cougars did go 3-0 ATS as Pac 12 favorites as year ago, but those games were against Oregon State, Arizona State and Colorado. Colorado, who up until this year had been very bad in conference play, is the only team that Wazzu has previously been asked to lay a TD or more to in Pac 12 play under Price! 8* UCLA | |||||||
10-15-16 | Arizona State +13.5 v. Colorado | Top | 16-40 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 3 m | Show |
10* Arizona State (8:00 ET): Early in the week, we saw a sizable shift in the line for this Pac 12 matchup. Colorado, who is the only perfect ATS team (6-0!) left in the entire country, quickly moved from a single digit fave to almost a two-touchdown choice. Maybe that's because the Buffs are still perfect at the betting window, or maybe it has something to do w/ Arizona State's uncertain situation at QB. Regardless of the reason, there is now plenty of value on the Sun Devils as DD underdogs in this situation. For the record, HC Todd Graham has stated that he expects starter Manny Wilkins to play here. If for some reason he doesn't, or even sees limited time, that's okay because ASU was still able to upset UCLA last week w/o him. His backup Brady White did a season-ending foot injury in that upset, but freshman Dillon Sterling-Cole is waiting in the wings if need be. I simply feel this is a massive overlay. Take the points. Colorado was actually a large favorite against Oregon State (-17) two weeks ago and destroyed the Beavers by a score of 47-6. That number was pretty much unprecedented territory for the Buffs under HC Mike MacIntyre, who is doing a great job here in Boulder. But last week, they should have probably lost by a larger margin to USC. I say that not as a bitter bettor that had the Trojans -4.5 (final score was 21-17), but as someone looking at the total yardage battle (539-371). Four USC turnovers absolutely kept CU in that game. Also, it should be pointed out they kicked a late FG to get within the number. USC then drove the ball inside the Colorado 5-yd line on the final drive, but kneeled to end the game. ASU was also on the wrong end of the total yardage count in their 23-20 win over UCLA late last Saturday. But they actually never trailed in the game despite starting a backup QB. It should be pointed out that the Sun Devils have beaten the Buffaloes seven straight times by an average of 26 points per game. All seven games have been won by at least a two touchdown margin. In retrospect, I can see why CU was favored by so many points against an Oregon State team that was so far behind the rest of the Pac 12 pack LY. But this number is a bit absurd. ASU has a huge special teams edge thanks to the NCAA's all-time scoring leader, kicker Zane Gonzalez. The Sun Devils have lost just one time this year (at USC) and are 2-0 SU and ATS the L3 seasons as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 pts. 10* Arizona State | |||||||
10-15-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. Rice +3.5 | Top | 14-13 | Win | 100 | 101 h 3 m | Show |
10* Rice (7:00 ET): What a disaster this season has been thus far for Rice. The Owls, who were projected to improve this year, are instead one of only two teams in the entire country (Miami OH is the other) currently w/o a SU victory to their credit. To be fair though, they have been a dog in every game but one. Here, David Baliff's team is off a bye and I think a tremendous value taking points against a UTSA team ripe for a letdown after pulling off a shocking 55-32 upset of Southern Miss (as 17-pt underdogs) last week. This is also a big revenge game for Rice as LY's 34-24 loss (as three-point road dogs) cost them a shot a bowl eligibility. Here at Rice Stadium, the Owls are a strong 23-10 SU in C-USA home games over the last eight seasons. Take the points. Last year, a lot of things went wrong for Rice. For instance, they were -12 in turnover margin. They are -3 so far in 2016 and that's after finishing +3 in their last game (against Southern Miss) where they still lost 44-28 as they allowed 700+ yards. That all sounds very bad, but again, being at home and off the bye is pretty huge here. The team should clearly be motivated to get that first win. Their last home game was a tough 42-35 loss to North Texas in double overtime. On the final play there, they were stuffed on a 4th and 1. The offense did gain an impressive 491 yards in that game. Rice is 3-1 SU all-time vs. UTSA w/ the lone loss coming LY, but the Owls led that game in the first half. Again, considering they were three-point dogs on the road LY, they look like a great value at home this year. I've already cashed this team once in 2016, when they were catching a huge number here at home vs. Baylor. UTSA beating Southern Miss LW was a real shocker. It was the Roadrunners' first win over a FBS foe this season. I've also cashed in on them previously, not vs. Southern Miss, but rather in a Friday night home game vs. Arizona State. But it should be pointed out that they followed up that performance, their best of the season prior to LW, by losing at 33-19 at Old Dominion the following week. In two road games, UTSA has scored a grand total of 33 points. The defense still surrendered 557 yards to Southern Miss LW, so I'll calll for Rice's best offensive performance to date as they likely win this game straight up. Somewhat surprisingly, UTSA was actually favored on the road three times last year, but they failed to cover twice and lost one of the games (at North Texas) outright. They have just three road wins total the L3 seasons! 10* Rice | |||||||
10-15-16 | Alabama v. Tennessee +12.5 | Top | 49-10 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 0 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (3:30 ET): Many times, you'll see that the favorite is the one undervalued in a battle of top ranked teams, but that is most certainly not the case Saturday afternoon here in Knoxville. Yes, Tennessee lost for the first time in 2016 last week (take a drink every time Verne Lundqvist or Gary Danielson says "pixie dust!"). But, on the road, they actually outgained Texas A&M 684-592. Seven turnovers, the final one coming on the deciding play in double OT, are what ultimately doomed them in College Station. I really like their chances at keeping this one close, however, as it's the second of B2B road games for Alabama. The Tide gave up a lot of yards LW at Arkansas. Honestly, an outright win by the Vols seems more likely here than a blowout loss. Take the points. The big story here is of course the fact UT has lost nine straight times to Alabama (by an average of 21 PPG). But this is clearly Butch Jones' best team yet. Yes, there have been a lot of close wins thus far ("pixie dust!") and they were outgained by Va Tech in Bristol. But close wins are long overdue in Knoxville as LY all four of the team's losses came by seven points or less. One of them was to 'Bama, 19-14 (as 15-pt dogs) in Tuscaloosa. The Vols were off a bye in that game (while the Tide were playing an eighth straight week) and they led 14-13 w/ five minutes to go before giving up the GW drive. While not off a bye this year, I do believe the situation still favors the Vols as Bama is playing on the road for a second straight week. Also, what a value on them as a home dog considering what the line was last year! In two SEC road games thus far, Alabama's defense has been very shaky. They've allowed an average of 36.5 points and 500 yards per game to Ole Miss and Arkansas. That's really troubling, especially considering this could perhaps be the best offense they will face all season. Tennessee QB Joshua Dobbs has been outstanding this year. I think the running game might be better w/ Alvin Kamara in the backfield and Jalen Hurd should be back for this game. The Vols defense could me in much better shape if LB Darrin Kirkland, Jr (gametime decision) is back. Getting back to Alabama's defense, they allowed 400 yards passing and 25 first downs last week to a Brett Bielema team! Yes, they still won by 19, but that was w/ the defense scoring twice, something that simply cannot be counted upon on a weekly basis. One of those defensive TD's was a 100-yd INT return which really swung the game. So far, the Tide have scored NINE non-offensive touchdowns, which sure seems like an unsustainable way to put points on the road. I look for this game to be decided by less than one score. 8* Tennessee | |||||||
10-14-16 | Mississippi State +7.5 v. BYU | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 80 h 22 m | Show |
10* Mississippi State (10:15 ET): This line "jumped off" the proverbial board for me. Note that over the summer, the Golden Nugget had this game listed as a "Pick Em." The "look ahead" line, posted last week at BetOnline, had BYU as a four-point favorite. That adjustment was somewhat reasonable as MSU has somewhat failed to live up to expectations this year, particularly in an embarrassing 21-20 home loss to South Alabama (were -28!) in the season opener. But w/ them losing LW in Starkville to Auburn, 38-14, and BYU going to Michigan State and winning outright (31-14 as 3.5-pt pups), the spread for this game has now taken on "a life of its own." BYU might be 5-1 ATS thus far, but w/ all of their games - save for LW - decided by a field goal or less, fading them is the way to go here. Take the points. Mississippi State is just 2-3 SU, but two of those three losses have come by a total of four points. They missed the potential GW field goal vs. South Alabama and then they played LSU tough in Death Valley (lost 23-20) on September 17th. They've beaten both South Carolina and UMass, gaining nearly 500 and 600 total yards in the process, so even though Dak Prescott's absence is being felt, the offense can still move the ball. Last week was a disaster as they trailed 35-0 at the half, but Auburn seems to be a team on the rise. The team that BYU beat last week, Michigan State, is a team in decline. What makes MSU's loss last week such a disappointment is that they were coming off a bye. Meanwhile, this is BYU's seventh consecutive w/o a bye and they'll be on a short week next week when they visit Boise State for a Thursday game. It has absolutely been a daunting schedule thus far for BYU w/ games against Arizona, Utah, UCLA, West Virginia, Toledo and Michigan State. Last week's result certainly caught a lot of people by surprise, but Michigan State simply is not that good this year. This is only the third time BYU has been favored and the first time by more than a field goal this year. They were lucky to escape Arizona w/ a two-point victory (were -1) in the opener, then again needed a last second field goal to escape Toledo (55-53 as three-point chalk). Covers against Utah (forced six turnovers) and UCLA (trailed 17-0) should both be considered pretty fortunate. In that Toledo game, the defense gave up nearly 700 total yards. The points are very attractive here. 10* Mississippi State | |||||||
10-14-16 | Memphis v. Tulane +11.5 | Top | 24-14 | Win | 100 | 57 h 32 m | Show |
8* Tulane (8:00 ET): The Green Wave of Tulane have lost just two games in this first season under HC Willie Fritz. Both were close as they lost the season opener at improved Wake Forest (7-3!) and then a home game to Navy (who just upset Houston), 21-14, after leading entering the 4Q. Since that loss to Navy, they've come back to win a pair of close games. The first came here in New Orleans, 41-39 over LA Lafayette. That was a bit of a fortunate decision considering they were outgained and benefited from four Ragin Cajun turnovers. Thus, I was impressed that they were able to avoid any kind of letdown traveling out to UMass on October 1st where they prevailed 31-24. They really controlled the game in the second half there. Last week's scheduled game at UCF was cancelled, so I think that gives Fritz a bit of an edge here, hosting Memphis. Take the points. Memphis is 4-1 SU, their lone loss coming at Ole Miss. Some might take a look at LW's 34-27 win, but non-cover, against Temple as a "bad beat." But note the Tigers were pretty fortunate to even win that one as they were outgained 531-323! They trailed early, 13-0, before kicking a field goal w/ no time remaining in the first half. From there, they scored the game's next 21 points and took a two touchdown lead after a kickoff return midway through the fourth quarter. But Temple was able to find the end zone late to "steal" the cover as 9.5-pt pups. But again, "steal" is a misleading word considering Memphis scored a pair of non-offensive TD's in the game. A +2 edge in turnovers, plus the special teams TD, was enough to negate a pretty severe 27-15 deficit in first downs compared to the Owls. All of Memphis wins this season have come at home and the first three were all against terrible competition. Being +10 in TO's vs. Kansas and Bowling Green certainly helped as well! Meanwhile, Tulane has a strong defense (not a surprise) that has allowed more than 24 pts only one time all season. The Green Wave offense has let them down in both SU losses, but they should be able to move the ball here against a defense which has permitted over 1,100 yards the L2 games. The week off should be another advantage, like I mentioned earlier. Memphis has won nine straight over Tulane, but LY at the Liberty Bowl did see the Green Wave jump out to a 13-0 lead w/ a 100+ yd edge in total yards. I can absolutely see the home dog taking this game outright! 8* Tulane | |||||||
10-13-16 | Broncos v. Chargers +3.5 | Top | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 33 h 58 m | Show |
10* San Diego (8:25 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, I had strong opinions on both of these teams season win totals. As of right now, my respective opinions aren't looking so good. I was very high on San Diego finishing Over 7.0 wins as I deemed it reasonable to assume the team's fortune in terms of injuries and luck in close games would take a turn for the better. Sadly, they've managed to somehow get even worse in both departments. Denver, meanwhile, is a team I bet to finish Under 9.5 wins. They jumped out to a 4-0 SU start on the back of a defense that remains very strong. However, last week we saw the Broncos lose for the 1st time as Atlanta came to their house and pulled off a 23-16 upset as 3.5-pt underdogs. Now, the defending Super Bowl champs have to hit the road, on a short week, w/o their head coach and possibly w/o their starting QB. I'm not ready to rip up that Chargers bet quite yet. They have lost six in a row to the Broncos and 10 straight AFC West games overall. But I see both streaks likely coming to an end here. Take the points. While they've lost 10 straight division games straight up, the Lightning Bolts have actually covered the number in each of the last five. That reflects the kind of fortune they've experienced in close games the L2 seasons. In Week 1, they led the Chiefs (on the road) 27-10 entering the fourth quarter. They ended up losing 33-27 in overtime, still covering the 6.5-point spot. Last week in Oakland was almost comical as they blew another lead and then missed what would have been a game-tying field goal at the end of regulation. But they covered (+3.5) in the 34-31 loss. In between, they have given games away late to both Indianapolis and New Orleans in the final minute. Yet, the team still has a positive point differential due to a 38-14 blowout of Jacksonville here at home in Week 2! Their four losses have come by a total of 14 points w/ one of them a coming by six in overtime. This team's fortune HAS to change! It is safe to say that there isn't a team in this league "better" than its actual record than San Diego. This is the first time this year they'll be a home dog. We already know that Denver will travel w/o HC Gary Kubiak for this game. That's a tough situation for interim HC Joe DeCamillis on a short week, especially if he will be starting rookie Paxton Lynch at QB again. Quite frankly, Lynch did not look very good vs. the Falcons w/ only 183 yds passing on 35 attempts. This would obviously be his first road start. Even if Trevor Siemian is able to go here, this play stands. A real key is that the Broncos' offensive line was terrible against Atlanta (allowed six sacks) and that's a team not known for a pass rush. One bright spot in San Diego's loss LW was the debut of 1st round pick Joey Bosa, who had two sacks. Also, the Chargers' own offensive line has actually been much improved. Turnovers, particularly fumbles, have killed the SD offense. If they can take better care of the football, then I see no reason why the home dog doesn't take this game outright. 10* San Diego | |||||||
10-13-16 | Dodgers +1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
8* Run Line LA Dodgers (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Dodgers +1.5. To me, the Dodgers are pretty close to a 50/50 proposition to win this game. Thus, taking the RL is a pretty attractive option. I've had great success playing the RL thus far in the playoffs, cashing the Indians (won "outright" in Game 1) and the Giants (lost by 1 in Gm 4) of their respective series. In this best of five, we've seen two of the previous four games decided by exactly one run. Both, Games 1 and 4, were Dodger wins. While they've been outscored in the series (21-15), they do hold an 11-5 head to head edge against the Nationals since the start of last season, including 7-3 here in 2016. Both Game 5 starters lost their respective first starts in this series. The stakes couldn't be higher and I'm thinking runs will be at a premium here. I certainly would not be shocked to see LA win and I'll call for them to do no worse than a one-run loss. The Dodgers will give the baseball to Rich Hill on Thursday. While he hasn't pitched particularly well of late, neither has Washington starter Max Scherzer (more on him in a moment). Hill allowed four runs (in 4 1/3) in the Game 2 loss and has a 4.40 ERA/1.535 WHIP his L3 starts. His TSR (0-3) reflects how he's pitched over that time, but I feel it is important to remember that since coming over to the National League, Hill has allowed 2 ER or less in five of seven starts. He has a 0.905 WHIP in the Senior Circuit and on the road this year his ERA and WHIP are 2.31 and 0.95 respectively, which has translated into an 8-3 TSR. Hill was actually a ML favorite in that Game 2 start, so this is looking like a pretty strong value here. I also wouldn't be surprised to see some of Julio Urias here and though they were shaky in both Games 3 & 4, I have to think the Dodgers' bullpen will be more reliable overall. Scherzer has a 5.82 ERA and 1.412 WHIP in his L3 starts, similar numbers to Hill. But the difference is that Scherzer has managed a misleading 2-1 TSR. He's allowed a total of 9 runs in his L11 IP w/ both starts coming here at home. I know the Dodgers haven't been hitting particularly well in this series, but they did get to Scherzer for four runs in six innings in Game 1. There is going to be a lot of pressure on the Nats here as they have never won a postseason series. Scherzer hardly has the greatest postseason ERA (3.98) and his lifetime TSR vs. the Dodgers is 2-7 w/ the last win coming back in 2014. One last thing worth mentioning is the so-called "Circadian Advantage" West Coast teams have over their East Coast counterparts in primetime affairs. This game will be the first non-daytime affair of the series. 8* Run Line LA Dodgers (+1.5) | |||||||
10-12-16 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette +10 | Top | 24-0 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
8* UL Lafayette (8:00 ET): Both teams obviously had last week off. The Ragin Cajuns, save for an opening week loss at home to Boise State (45-10), have been competitive all season. But they are off B2B losses, the last one coming at New Mexico State where they were favored by five. The week previous, it was a two-point loss at Tulane (covered as three-point dogs). That makes it four consecutive games for them decided by eight points or less. So it is curious to see them getting this little respect at home. Yes, they've lost each of the L2 years to Appalachian State, but the Mountaineers are down a bit in 2016. ASU's two losses may have come to Power 5 teams (Tennessee, Miami), but they are overvalued here. Take the points. App State has gone 13-3 SU in Sun Belt play the L2 seasons, but has not won a conference championship. They did finish with the best YPG differential (+144.4) in conference play last season. But with the more challenging non-conference schedule, it's not much of a surprise that they've already matched the number of losses they had all of last year. Also note that there were three times in 2015 that the Mountaineers won a game by a touchdown or less. They had another such win in their last road game as they had to hold on to beat Akron 45-38. On October 1st, they held Georgia State to only three points. Note, however, that they benefitted from four turnovers in that 17-3 win and it was a scoreless tie at half (7-0 after 3Q). Laying this many points on the road is somewhat unprecedented for the Mountaineers as previously they have not been a road fave of -7.5 to -10 pts since moving up to the FBS level. As mentioned before, this is a double revenge spot for ULL. They are 0-2 vs. ASU as SBC members including a 28-7 loss in Boone last season. But they did cover there, taking 22.5 pts from the oddsmakers. App State's only visit to Lafayette was in 2014 and while they won outright as nine-point pups, 35-16, it was actually a 21-16 game heading into the 4Q. Including a 28-23 win over South Alabama (who beat Miss State) on 9.17, the Ragin Cajuns are 16-5 SU L21 SBC home games. That makes them look like a tremendous value in this spot. In fact, this will be just the FOURTH time in HC Mark Hudspeth's tenure here (six years) that his team is a home dog. Other than the loss to Boise State in this year's opener, they are 2-0 ATS previously, taking BOTH games outright! 8* UL Lafayette | |||||||
10-11-16 | Cubs v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
8* Run Line San Francisco (8:35 ET): Please note that this is a run line play only where I am taking the Giants +1.5. For a 10th consecutive time, the Giants staved off elimination Monday night. The manner in which they did it was quite shocking as Madison Bumgarner, thought to be their "great equalizer" gave up a three-run homer to counterpart Jake Arrieta in the second inning. One would have thought that 3-0 lead would have held up for the Cubs, but it did not as an improbable eighth inning rally took place, keyed by Conor Gillaspie's triple. I was happy as I had the Over, which was a winner before the game was even decided. I'm now a perfect 3-0 in this series (had Cubs in both Games 1 and 2). Thanks to some predictable line movement, we can now grab the home team (Giants) w/ a little insurance (i.e. +1.5) at a relatively inexpensive price. One issue that the seemingly invincible Cubs have in this series is that Giants hitters don't strike out much, especially here at home. Perhaps AT&T is a "pitcher's park," but its expansive nature somewhat mitigates the Cubs advantage defensively. Whereas Cubs hitters have struck out a total of 28 times in this series, Giants hitters have done so only 19 times. Two of the three games have been decided by one run and San Fran now has more hits in the series. Incredibly, seven of the last eight head to head meetings between these two teams have been decided by one run! The pressure will be immense on the heavily favored Cubs tonight and I think the situation does favor the Giants at home as this organization has consistently proven it can win when facing elimination. Lefty Matt Moore gets the baseball tonight for the Giants. A mid-season acquisition, he was sharp down the stretch, allowing 2 ER or less in six of his last eight starts. One of the exceptions came at Coors Field, which is basically a "write off." The Cubs have never faced Moore before, which I believe is an edge for the pitcher. In his L2 starts, Moore allowed just two runs in 15 2/3 IP w/ a 17-2 KW rate. Both outings took place here at home. Much will be made of the fact that Cubs' Game 4 starter John Lackey is the last pitcher to beat the Giants in an elimination game, but that took place 14 years ago and has no real bearing to tonight. The Cubs are just 3-7 their L10 games at AT&T Park and w/ Giants pitching having allowed an .177 average the L7 games (2.1 rpg), I see the home team doing no worse than a one-run loss here. 8* Run Line San Francisco (+1.5). | |||||||
10-09-16 | Bills +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 30-19 | Win | 102 | 98 h 16 m | Show |
10* Buffalo (4:25 ET): The wrong team is favored here in my estimation. Despite a 3-1 record, the Rams still have been outscored this year - by 13 points - as they were shutout in the opener (28-0) by San Francisco of all opponents. Since then, they've somehow managed to beat both the Seahawks and Cardinals despite scoring all of TWO offensive touchdown in those two victories. The 9-3 win, here at home, over Seattle was obviously all field goals and probably would have been a loss if not for a late Seahawks' fumble in LA territory. Last week, a big special teams play (47-yd punt return) was the difference in a 17-13 road win over Arizona. It also helped that Carson Palmer was knocked out of that game w/ a concussion because on the Cardinals' final two drives, backup Drew Stanton threw INTs in Rams territory. It should be noted that LA was actually outgained, 420-288, an Arizona had more than double the number of first downs (26-12). Buffalo was seemingly left for dead at 0-2, but things have taken a real turn here the L2 weeks. The big focus was on Rex Ryan firing OC Greg Roman after the Jets loss, but it has been Ryan's defense that has keyed the turnaround. I had the Bills when they beat Arizona two weeks ago, 33-18, thanks to creating five turnovers. Last week may have been the "high water" mark of the Ryan era here in upstate NY as the team shut out New England, on the road, 16-0. Granted, they were facing an injured, third-string rookie QB in Jacoby Brissett, but is the Rams' Case Keenum really someone they should be fearing? I think not. The Rams' offense has failed to gain even 300 total yards in three of their games this season and w/ RB Todd Gurley struggling to get going (2.6 YPC), I see another strong effort from Ryan's defense. Los Angeles actually ranks dead last in the league in total offense right now at 269 YPG. Earlier I mentioned that the Rams actually have a negative point differential (-13) despite their 3-1 SU record. That point differential actually ranks 21st in the league right now. Buffalo is in the top 9 at +19. So again, I believe the wrong team is favored here. Furthermore, it's expected to be a low-scoring affair, so taking the points is always a prudent move in that situation. The Rams are a bad offensive team that's not favored often. Thus, they are excellent fade material. Buffalo is 13-6-1 ATS the L20 times it has been an underdog, winning 12 of those games straight up. 10* Buffalo | |||||||
10-09-16 | Chargers +3.5 v. Raiders | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 98 h 7 m | Show |
10* San Diego (4:25 ET): In the interest of full disclosure, when it comes to season win totals, the Chargers (7.0) were my top Over bet. Needless to say, it has been an infuriating start to the year w/ the team now 1-3 SU and having blown three fourth quarter leads. Last week, though I was not on them, was the most painful of the lot as they went from being ahead 34-21 w/ just under three minutes to go, to a 35-34 loss due to two ill-time fumbles. This against the previously winless Saints, at home. Don't even get me started on the Week 1 disaster at Kansas City that saw San Diego blow a 17-pt 4Q lead and lose in OT (thankfully, they still covered). There was also a four-point loss at Indy (allowed long TD pass late). Though they've now lost FOUR starters to season-ending injuries, I'm calling for an end to this madness. Take the points and the Chargers. Oakland is 3-1, but overrated. Note they have a point differential of just +2. San Diego, meanwhile, is 1-3 SU but has a +13 point differential. The Raiders have a pair of one-point wins, one over New Orleans and then last week at Baltimore, to their credit. Their other win came by a touchdown over Tennessee. Give this team credit for three road wins (all out East!), but every game could have gone "either way." The one time they were at home, they were favored and lost outright to Atlanta, 35-28. The problem w/ the Silver and Black is a defense giving up an average of 460 YPG. Last week, they were outgained by Baltimore 412-261 and had 12 fewer first downs (25-13!). Talk about a phony win! The Raiders are now being outgained, on average, by 68 yards per game. They allowed 500+ yards to both the Saints & Falcons. Oakland actually swept the season series from San Diego LY, doing so for the first time since 2010. From 2011 through 2014, the Chargers won seven of eight overall matchups. This is just the third time since '03 that the Raiders have been favored over the Lightning Bolts. All three games were at home and the Silver and Black are 0-3 ATS. That includes last year, when they won 23-20 laying four points. True to form, San Diego led that game going into the 4Q. Regardless of what the records say, the better team is getting points here. 10* San Diego | |||||||
10-09-16 | Patriots v. Browns +10.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -108 | 95 h 54 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): The Browns, I assure you, promise to be the least "popular" side among the public here in Week 5. They draw the Patriots, who get Tom Brady back following a four-game suspension and coming off a shutout loss at the hands of the Bills, the expectation will be a New England blowout. But even though Cleveland is 0-4 SU (1-3 ATS), as expected, that doesn't necessarily reflect how competitive they've been. Last week, on the road, they led Washington in the fourth quarter. All of a sudden, they were then unable to hang onto the football w/ THREE fourth quarter turnovers (one ruled fumble was a VERY questionable call by the officials) and also a turnover on downs. They actually outgained the Redskins, 380-301. Two weeks ago, they took Miami into overtime, also the road. They had the edge in total yards there as well in what was an automatic cover for me once the game went into OT. Then, three weeks ago, the Browns were up 20-0 on Baltimore, yet those stuck w/ the closing line of 4.5 did not cover as the Ravens rallied for a 25-20 victory, stopping Cleveland w/ a goal line INT. Again, the Browns had the edge in total yards there. Take the points. New England was shutout last week, at home no less, 16-0 by Buffalo. I realize the Pats were starting an injured, rookie third string QB (Jacoby Brissett). But Cleveland is also down to a rookie third-stringer (Cody Kessler) and he fared much better. The week prior, the Pats offense gained only 282 yds in a shutout that happened to go their way, 27-0 over Houston (Thurs night game). Miami, they had to hold on to beat 31-24. Week 1 was a bit of a stunning upset, as nine-point dogs, but that no longer looks as impressive given the Cardinals' 1-3 start. It is very rare to find a road team favored by double digits in this league. It happened just four times all of last season and twice was in the meaningless final week. Since 2011, DD road chalk is just 8-13 ATS (w/ four outright losses). Even the Patriots have only been in this role four times throughout Bill Belichick's tenure. In fact, as a road favorite of a TD or more, NE is just 1-7 ATS dating back to Week 16 of the 2012 season! This line, which should be only about a touchdown in my estimation, is all about the expectation of Tom Brady coming in and being in "mid-season" form. There is no guarantee that he will play that well. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
10-09-16 | Eagles v. Lions +3 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
8* Detroit (1:00 ET): 3-0 and off a bye, Carson Wentz & the Eagles are the "toast of the town" right now in Philly (Phillies & Sixers both stink anyway). Shame on me, I projected this team to win only three games all season! Obviously, that was a bad call, but what I never could have anticipated was the Eagles actually being asked to lay points in a road game this year. Yet, that's the situation this week in Detroit and the public seems willing to throw their support behind the unbeaten team. The Lions were a team that I played AGAINST LW and that proved to be a prudent maneuver as they (as road favorites!) lost outright to the previously winless Bears! I'll call for "the script to be flipped" Sunday afternoon and I would not be at all surprised to see Detroit take this one outright. But take the points. Wentz has received the "lions-share" of the attention (pun intended!) for his team's 3-0 start, but really it's been more about the defense. Wins over Cleveland and Chicago really aren't that impressive when you think about it (notwithstanding this week's play on the Browns or last week's on the Bears!). Now the shocking Week 3 dismantling of the Steelers obviously was quite impressive, but I'm going to simply write that one off as an outlier. On the road, Philly was actually outgained by Chicago, but aided greatly by Jay Cutler turnovers. Provided Detroit can take care of the football here, things can go their way. The Eagles are +6 in the turnover department so far, but have actually fumbled three times themselves, only to come up w/ the ball every time. Lucky! I was pretty shocked to find that the Eagles are 24-5 SU coming off a bye since 1993. But that's pretty meaningless given it's a whole new reigme here. If anything, that record is due to regress. Then again, might the fact that the team is 1-7 ATS laying a FG or more on the road (since 2012) mean a little bit more? Detroit opened this season by going to Indianapolis and beating the Colts outright, 39-35, as three-point dogs. I've since bet against them both times that they were favored, at home vs. Tennessee and LW at Chicago, getting a perfect result. In between those two outright losses was a rally that fell short at Green Bay. As bad as things look right now in the Motor City, this team finds itself playing for its season and I expect an inspired effort Sunday. I wouldn't trust the Eagles CB's against these Lions' WR's plus LB Nigel Bradham was arrested last weekend. There is a chance that OL Lane Johnson could be out (suspension) as well for the road team. 8* Detroit | |||||||
10-09-16 | Jets +7 v. Steelers | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -102 | 95 h 53 m | Show |
8* NY Jets (1:00 ET): I'll complete these trio of what are sure to be "unpopular" sides this week w/ the Jets, who are coming off a 27-17 humbling at the hands of the Seahawks. Going from facing Seattle to Pittsburgh may seem like a brutal spot for this fledgling team, but this is a classic instance of fading a team coming off an impressive win in a nationally televised game. The Steelers looked like "the Steelers" again in a 43-14 beatdown of the Chiefs last Sunday night, so everyone is likely to be back on their bandwagon. Especially since that's the same Chiefs team that beat the Jets 24-3 the week prior, forcing EIGHT turnovers in the process. But just because A > B and B > C, does not make A > C in this league. I'm going to take the points and rely on the Jets' defense keeping them in this one. So far, the line for every Jets game has been a field goal or less. Three games were basically pick 'ems. Three more turnovers (forced none) were killers LW vs. Seattle, a game they were in until the fourth quarter. Remember that the team's first loss, at home to Cincinnati, came by one point and was decided on a last second FG. Even the 8 TO disaster at Kansas City was not out of reach when the 4Q began. The key is the defense, which would have a lot better numbers if not for the offense turning the ball over so much. I realize the offense is down a couple of receivers, one of them Eric Decker, but if Ryan Fitzpatrick can just complete the ball to a player wearing green, they'll be okay. Remember that the Steelers are just two weeks removed from a 34-3 blowout at the hands of the Eagles. The biggest key here will be the Jets' defensive line going against a suspect Steelers' offensive line. Pittsburgh could again be w/o starting LG Ramon Foster this week. On the other side, RT Marcus Gilbert is questionable at best and his backup Ryan Harris also got hurt last week. That means Mike Tomlin may be forced to start a practice squad member along the offensive front. The Jets' defense is allowing just 70 yards rushing per game so far and no opponent has gained more than 86 yards over land against them. That's #3 in the league right now. The pass rush, a bit of a disappointment LW (only 2 sacks) should do a better job at getting home here. 8* NY Jets | |||||||
10-09-16 | Texans +7 v. Vikings | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 40 m | Show |
8* Houston (1:00 ET): Admittedly, I don't have much of an affinity for the Texans. Their offense is fairly dreadful and they were lucky to escape w/ a win LW at home vs. Tennessee (won 27-20 w/ the difference being a punt return for a TD). But the defense, even sans JJ Watt, must be still be respected. This Week 5 battle w/ Minnesota promises to be low-scoring (one of the lowest totals on the board) and thus taking the points seems like a wise decision here. What's interesting here is that the Vikings are in the unusual spot of actually receiving the public's support in this one. Typically, the public fades them (and I made the mistake of doing so Monday as well), which is why they've been able to amass a remarkable 18-3 ATS record (4-0 ATS in 2016) since the start of last year. But this is a bit of a bad spot considering it's a short week and they have to play a 1 PM ET game. Take the points. The Vikings actually rank 31st in the league in total offense (290 YPG) coming into this game. In the first three weeks of the season, they scored all of three offensive touchdowns. So let's "pump the brakes" a bit on all this Sam Bradford talk, shall we? Week 1 was a fortunate win over a bad Tennessee team as the defense scored twice in the second half. It was an upset of Green Bay (were +1.5), at home, in Week 2 as they prevailed by just a field goal. Week 3 saw them go to Carolina and win 22-10, but again it was the defense supplying both a touchdown and a safety. That's a somewhat unsustainable way to win games. Monday night against the Giants, two of their scoring drives (resulting in 10 pts, the difference in the game) started in opposing territory. Without Adrian Peterson, the Vikings just can't run the ball as they are averaging only 64 YPG for the year, which is dead last. It looks as if there is a good chance that this will be the first time in the Zimmer era that the Vikes will be asked to lay more than seven points. Conversely, the Texans rarely find themselves catching this many points. There was only one game all of last season where they got more than a touchdown from the oddsmakers (were +10 at Cincinnati on MNF) and they wound up winning that game outright. Note that the advanced line for this game was only Minnesota -4, so there's now some real solid value on the other side. Remember, the Vikings have not scored more than 25 pts in any game this season and that high-water mark only came as a result of two defensive scores. 8* Houston | |||||||
10-08-16 | California v. Oregon State +13.5 | Top | 44-47 | Win | 100 | 44 h 40 m | Show |
8* Oregon State (9:00 ET): Cal has been involved in almost nothing but wild games this year. Perhaps that is apropos for a team that opened its season in Austrailia. That was a 51-31 win over Hawaii, but since then it has been nothing but close games for HC Sonny Dykes. They went to San Diego State and lost 45-40 as 5.5-point dogs. That's a game they never led (despite 600+ total yds on offense) and allowed Aztecs RB Donnel Pumphrey to run wild (281 yds, 3 TDs). Then, back in Berkeley, they stunned Texas 50-43 despite giving up almost 600 yards. A 51-41 loss to Arizona State may have been the wildest of the bunch as they blew a two TD halftime lead and the cover when they allowed an onside kick return for TD. Last week's 28-23 win over Utah required a goal line stand on the final possession. As you can tell from some of those Cal scores, they do not have a stout defense, last week's goal line stand notwithstanding. They're allowing an average of 38.6 PPG, making them a less than ideal candidate to be laying double digits on the road. Last week, which was at home, was their best defensive performance and even still they allowed 443 total yards. I've admittedly been quite impressed with Dykes' offense, especially considering it lost #1 overall NFL DC Jared Goff. But considering the Bears have yet to post B2B SU victories this year, they are excellent fade material in this spot. Note that from 1999-2013, the Bears were just 3-12 SU vs. Oregon State, but have now posted B2B victories against them. Rarely, if ever, during this time have they been favored in Corvallis. Last year was a rebuilding campaign for OSU in their first year under Gary Andersen. The team went 2-10 SU overall and 0-9 SU vs. the Pac 12, getting outgained by over 200 YPG in conference play. They are a far more experienced team this season, though that did them no favors LW in Colorado where they were hammered 47-6. But that result has also created this situation where we can grab a ton points with the home dog. Earlier in the year, the Beavers played both Minnesota and Boise State tough. I'll call for this to be their best offensive game vs. a FBS foe under Andersen. This is the first time that Cal has been favored in a "true" road game since facing Washington State in 2012. Take the points. 8* Oregon State | |||||||
10-08-16 | Washington v. Oregon +9 | Top | 70-21 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
8* Oregon (7:30 ET): This is a classic letdown spot for Washington, who I had last Friday as the home team in a 44-6 demolition of Stanford. That win announced the Huskies' presence on the national scene as Chris Petersen has his team in position to compete for one of the four spots in the CFP. But, it will be highly difficult (if not match) the emotion from last week's win. If either team should be emotional here, it should be a desperate Oregon side that has shocking lost three in a row. Two of those losses were by just a field goal and then last week brought perhaps the nadir of the Mark Helfrich era as they lost 51-33 at Washington State. I couldn't tell you the last time the Ducks lost two straight, let alone three straight. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS as underdogs the L3 seasons and 46-6 SU L52 games here at Autzen Stadium. I don't believe they'll win straight up, but this is a remarkable value. Certainly "times they are a changin'" in the Pac 12, but it's worth pointing out that Oregon has beaten Washington 12 straight times, 11 of those wins coming by 17+ points. So, yes, this has been quite the one-sided rivalry. Washington did just vanquish some recent poor history against Stanford, but again, that was in Seattle. So far, the Huskies have played just one "true" road game. The result of it was an overtime win over a severely depleted Arizona team (missing starting QB and RB). Little can be derived from the Huskies' first three games as they beat Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State at home. It has been uncommon to find this program laying more than a TD on the road the last several seasons. Washington was actually favored to beat the Ducks last year. But they lost outright, 26-20 as three-point chalk. That would be the lone time in the last dozen years that they haven't lost to them by 17 or more points. Earlier, I mentioned Oregon being perfect ATS as a dog the L3 seasons. They did cover by one-half point at Nebraska earlier this year, a game they finished w/ the edge in total yards (479-430) and led at halftime. They gave up the GW TD in the final 2:30. A non-existent defense has killed them the L2 weeks, but the offense has scored at least 32 pts in every game this year and this will be the first time they are a home dog since 2009, the first year under HC Chip Kelly. 8* Oregon | |||||||
10-08-16 | Michigan v. Rutgers +30 | Top | 78-0 | Loss | -106 | 42 h 39 m | Show |
8* Rutgers (7:00 ET): Laying this many points, on the road, in a conference game is pretty rarefied air. It obviously has a lot to do w/ the Michigan pedigree, but also b/c Rutgers is off a humiliating loss LW at Ohio State, 58-0 where they were outgained 669-116! Just burn the tape of that one, though. It was a terrible situation for the Scarlet Knights, who were on the road and playing a rested foe (OSU was off a bye). Rutgers has also just played Iowa really tough the week prior, losing just 14-7 here at home (easily covered 15-pt spread). Michigan will be their THIRD top six opponent in the first six games, but the Scarlet Knights are getting more points at home this week, then they were at Washington in the season opener. Take the points. Michigan was part of my successful teaser package last week (also had the Under in their game vs. Wisconsin). It's a good thing I teased them though as they were never covering the full game spread (11.5 points), needing a late TD just to pull out the SU victory. (Note: The Under was never in doubt). The win leaves puts the Wolverines at 5-0 SU and it's almost a given they'll be 7-0 when they head to East Lansing to face Michigan State on October 29th. But last week's victory did not come w/o a cost. Starting LT Grant Newsome is now out for the year w/ a serious knee injury. Another issue for Jim Harbaugh is the kicking game. Part of the reason that LW's game vs. Wisconsin stayed so close (despite a 349-159 edge in total yds) is that Wolverines kickers missed three field goals! Obviously, Rutgers won't score much here and has the most miniscule chance of winning. So, I'm counting on a defense that has been mostly solid to keep them in this one. Again, the last home game saw the Scarlet Knight hold Iowa (LY's Big 10 West Champs) to just 14 points. It was a 7-0 game going into the fourth quarter and Rutgers finished w/ the edge in both total yards and first downs for the game. Pre-Harbaugh, Michigan actually lost here in New Brunswick back in 2014. Last year was a 49-16 win in the Big House, but they were only 24-point favorites there. Rutgers is a better team this year and finds itself taking more points at home. 8* Rutgers | |||||||
10-08-16 | Colorado v. USC -4.5 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -105 | 41 h 39 m | Show |
10* USC (4:00 ET): A classic set up here. We have the unranked team favored. Colorado, yes Colorado, finds itself in the Top 25 (#21) following a 47-6 dismantling of Oregon State last week in Boulder. That win and cover kept the Buffs perfect ATS (5-0) as their lone SU loss was at the hands of Michigan, 45-28 at the Big House (were getting 18 pts there). They've come back from that to open Pac 12 play at 2-0 SU with wins over both Oregon schools. But it appears as if the linesmakers aren't buying it, nor am I. USC had a rough start to the season, drawing Alabama and Stanford (both away from home) in the first three weeks. A narrow loss at Utah had their stock real low, but then the sharps loved them LW at home vs. Arizona State and they delivered w/ a 41-20 win and cover as eight-point chalk. Lay the points. In Mike MacIntyre's first three years here, Colorado was just 2-25 SU in Pac 12 play, so this is quite the turnaround he's engineered here in Boulder. But save for Michigan, this will be the toughest test yet. They are 0-10 SU all-time vs. the Trojans w/ the average margin of defeat coming by 23 points per game. They were close last year, losing 26-23 (+18), but that was at Folsom Field. USC has proven to be a much tougher "out" here at the Coliseum where they are 2-0 SU this year w/ the two wins coming by 21 and 38 points. USC also "should have" beaten Utah two weeks ago as they led the majority of the way in Salt Lake City and had a 466-456 edge in total yards. I don't have the "lookahead line" available for this matchup, but I can't imagine that USC would have been considered this tenuous a favorite over the summer. A key in handicapping this matchup is looking at the QB position. Colorado has a bit of a mini-controversy on its hands as Steven Montez has come in and played well in place of the injured Sefo Liufau. MacIntyre not only must deal with managing that situation, but the expectations that come with being a ranked team. Simply put, if Colorado football was a stock, I'd be looking to "sell high" right now. USC seems to have settled on its QB w/ Sam Darnold, who threw for 352 yds last week. The Trojans are 8-1 SU/7-2 ATS the L3 seasons as a fave of 3.5 to 10 pts and 12-3 SU/10-5 ATS at home. 10* USC | |||||||
10-08-16 | Houston v. Navy +17 | Top | 40-46 | Win | 100 | 38 h 40 m | Show |
8* Navy (3:00 ET): I don't think I'm alone in saying that 2016 figured to be a 'down year' in Annapolis. The Midshipmen returned just ONE starter on the offensive side of the ball. Four year-starting QB Keenan Reynolds, the program's best player since Roger Staubach, left big shoes to fill and things look very ominous when new starter Tago Smith went down w/ a season-ending injury. But Will Worth has come in and righted the ship, so to speak. Yes, the Middies lost at Air Force LW, 28-14 as seven-point pups. But, historically, they have been a very good play as an underdog. We're talking 89-55 ATS in that role since 1992! This is a big revenge game for the service academy, who lost a de facto AAC West Title Game LY at Houston (as three-point favorites!), 51-32. I'm taking the points. Houston has no issues at QB as Greg Ward, Jr leads a team w/ legit playoff aspirations. The Cougars announced their presence on the national scene last year w/ a 13-1 SU campaign where the lone loss (at UConn) came w/ Ward out of the starting lineup. They won their bowl game over Florida State and opened this year w/ a win over Oklahoma. Last week, they avenged said loss to UConn w/ a 42-14 win, but got backdoored late. I had the Huskies, thank you very much ;). It should be pointed out that the Cougars did struggle some in their first "true" road game of 2016, trailing Cincinnati outright going into the fourth quarter. Yes, this team is now 10-1 ATS its L11 road games, including 7-1 when favored. But, with the profile raised, they are starting to carry a much heavier price tag. The only teams they've previously had to lay more than two touchdowns to on the road are Tulane, UCF and Texas State, all of whom would be classified as very bad teams at the time of kickoff. The biggest shocker from LW's loss to Air Force is that Navy ran for only 57 yards on 38 carries! There were only three games all of last season where they failed to gain at least 270 over land. But, on the flip side, QB Worth did complete 17 of 31 pass attempts for 260 yards. He has five rushing touchdowns thus far and overall the offense does still rank in the top 15 nationally in rush offense. The Middies have also won 12 straight here in Annapolis, so they will be a tough out. 8* Navy | |||||||
10-08-16 | Toledo v. Eastern Michigan +18 | Top | 35-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 23 m | Show |
8* Eastern Michigan (3:00 ET): This MAC West "rivalry" has been quite one-sided w/ Toledo winning 15 of 16 all-time matchups including nine straight. Eastern Michigan has not covered since 2012 when they lost by only five (52-47 as 14-pt pups) here in Ypsilanti. Since then, it's been three consecutive losses by an average of 39.3 PPG. The last two have come with Chris Creighton at the helm, but this is w/o question his best team during that time. The Eagles won just seven games - total - over the last four years, but are well on their way to matching that number here in 2016. They enter this game 4-1 SU and ATS and have already pulled off an outright dog win here at Rynearson Stadium, beating Wyoming two week ago. I'm taking the points here. After their upset of Wyoming, EMU found themselves in the unusual role of road favorite LW vs. Bowling Green. That was a role no Eagles team had found itself in the L10 seasons! They won 28-25, their second straight win by a field goal, taking the lead for good after TD midway through the third quarter. This offense has now rolled up nearly 1,000 total yards in the L2 games (500 vs. Wyoming, 484 vs. Bowling Green). The defense has allowed 25 pts or less in the four wins. Obviously, they and the team were a bit exposed in a 61-21 loss at Missouri. But that was in Columbia and I don't put much stock into that result. Yes, three of the Eagles four wins have come against either FCS competition (Miss Valley St) or the two worst FBS teams (BG, Charlotte). But, trust me when I say this is a much improved team in 2016. Toledo is 4-0 ATS this year. But the Rockets come off their 1st loss of the campaign and a tough one at that. They fell 55-53 at BYU. After taking the lead w/ a late TD + 2pt conversion (w/ 1:11 to go), the defense allowed BYU to move down the field, setting up a GW 19-yard field goal. That will be a tough one to get over. Next week is the real rivalry game for the Rockets (at home vs. Bowling Green) and their three wins can certainly be called into question as well. Arkansas State was winless before Wednesday. Maine is a FCS squad. Fresno State is not good. I don't think for a second that UT could lose here, but I can't see them covering this massive spread. 8* Eastern Michigan | |||||||
10-08-16 | Maryland v. Penn State +2 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
10* Penn State (12:00 ET): There's been a change in favorite for this Big 10 matchup, I assume due to the fact Maryland is a somewhat surprising 4-0 straight up. But is it really that surprising to see the Terps still unbeaten? They have been a double digit favorite in every game to this point, including last week when they were off a bye and clobbered Purdue 50-7 in College Park. Meanwhile, there's not much "happiness" in the valley at State College w/ bettors and fans alike seemingly selling James Franklin stock. An 0-4-1 ATS record seems to indicate Penn State is falling short of expectations, but both SU losses came as road dogs, one to Michigan. I look for the Nittany Lions to surprise here and end Maryland's unbeaten run. Take the points. The one comfortable win that PSU earned this year came in the opener, 33-13 over Kent State. Since then, it's been all close games save for the one at The Big House. It was a back and forth affair against in-state rival Pitt, on the road, in Week 2. Four turnovers were the primary culprit in that loss as the actually had one more first down (20-19) than Pitt in the contest. I actually faded the Nittany Lions the following week when hosting Temple. But that was a fortunate cover on my end. They outgained the Owls 403-324, but got "backdoored" thanks to a pair of late turnovers that led to Temple scoring drives that started inside the PSU 10-yd line. It was a late Temple field goal that resulted in the cash changing hands. Obviously, the Michigan game was a disaster, but they were missing three linebackers there. Last week's game vs. Minnesota went to overtime, this time seeing Penn State perhaps be a little fortunate. But I'll call for a little "carryover" here against an opponent they should be favored against. Maryland has already exceeded LY's win total. 1st year HC DJ Durkin (former DC at Michigan) has come in and made an impact, but the competition so far has been relatively weak. Howard is a FCS school. Florida International is one of the worst teams in the country. UCF didn't win a single game last year and that was a six-point game (on the road). As mentioned above, the team was coming off a bye LW hosting Purdue. (The Boilermakers were also off a tough win the wk prior vs. Nevada). The Terps have yet to cover B2B conference games since joining the Big 10. They won't pass for much (just 223 yds TOTAL L2 games) and the L2 meetings w/ PSU have each been decided by one point (each team has won once). I look for Franklin to cover for the first time against Maryland in what has turned into a pretty important conference game. 10* Penn State | |||||||
10-07-16 | Boise State v. New Mexico +17 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -104 | 56 h 50 m | Show |
THIS PLAY IS AN ERROR. INTENDED TO BE THE UNDER! | |||||||
10-07-16 | Clemson v. Boston College +17 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 21 m | Show |
8* Boston College (7:30 ET): This is a classic "trap spot" for unbeaten and third-ranked Clemson, who is on the road and just six days removed from a huge win (at home) over Louisville. While 9-1 SU as a road favorite the L3 seasons, the Tigers are just 3-7 against the spread in those same games. This is a much better BC team that they'll be facing here in Chesnut Hill compared to the one they beat 34-17 LY (as 17-pt favorites) in Death Valley. The Eagles have already matched their 2015 win total (3) and the key to this game will be their defense. Save for a one-week disaster at Virginia Tech (lost 49-0), they've allowed 17 pts or less in every other game. Not saying they'll be that stingy here, but that stop unit keeps them in this one until the finish here. Take the points. Clemson has been very impressive the L3 weeks, so it's easy to forget that they did not look particularly good in either of the first two games. I faded them in the opener, on the road, against Auburn. The home opener against Troy saw them struggle far more than expected as they didn't even score enough points (30) to cover the spread (-34.5) in a narrow six-point victory. Little can be derived from the 59-0 result over South Carolina State other than that's where Dabo Swinney's team seems to have turned the corner. They dominated Georgia Tech on a Thursday night, 26-7 w/ 442-124 edge in total yards. Then last week came the wild win over Louisville. Note though that they needed a stop inside their own 10-yd line to preserve that 42-36 victory and did turn the ball over five times.The defense gave up nearly 600 total yards (568 to be exact). It's absolutely fair to question what they'll have left in the tank here. Meanwhile, BC had little difficulty beating Buffalo here at home LW. In the last two games, this Eagles defense has allowed 174 yards - TOTAL! They held Buffalo UNDER 100 (67 to be exact) for the game! Had they not given up a late TD vs. Georgia Tech (in Ireland), this team would be 4-1 SU. Buffalo had just 25 first half yards and five first downs for the game! Most encouraging of all though is Eagles QB Patrick Towles had perhaps his best game w/ 234 yards and two touchdowns. Clemson has not been particularly strong in the second half this year, the last two games in particular, so the backdoor could always be open. 8* Boston College | |||||||
10-06-16 | Red Sox v. Indians +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 31 h 57 m | Show |
10* Run Line Cleveland (8:05 ET): Please note that this is a RL play only where I am taking the Indians +1.5. This would seem to be an ideal matchup for Boston. Despite being the lower seed, they are the favorite due to Cleveland's starting rotation being in shambles (no Danny Salazar, no Carlos Carrasco). That leaves Trevor Bauer to be the Game 1 starter for the home side here. But despite the fact that the Tribe seems "up against it" in this series, I think they are a tremendous value here at home, particularly only having to lay a short price to get the additional 1.5 runs. This team was 53-28 here at Progressive Field during the regular season. Seven of those losses (25%) were by one run. Go w/ the run line here. Boston led the league in offense during the regular season (878 runs), but this is the playoffs when runs tend to be at a premium. They didn't exactly close the regular season strong at the plate w/ just a .204 average the L7 games while scoring 2.9 rpg. That's a good sign for Bauer, who has an 11-5 team start record here at home (solid 1.259 WHIP). Bauer didn't fare that well in his lone start vs. the Red Sox this year (gave up 4 ER in 5 IP), but that was at Fenway Park and all the way back in May. Bauer's last start, in Kansas City on October 1st, went well as he allowed only three runs in six innings of work. He also finished w/ nine strikeouts, his most in a start since 8.19. The Indians did sweep their final series of the regular season, at Kansas City, so they come in w/ "momentum" (hate that word!). Another key here is that Cleveland's offense is significantly better at home than on the road. Here at Progressive Field, they average a strong 5.6 rpg (.287 team batting average). Only the Red Sox and Rockies (of course) averaged more runs per game at home than did the Indians. So the surprising Rick Porcello, a 22-game winner, best beware. The Indians' lineup is almost all lefties and switch-hitters. Porcello's 2016 renaissance was downright shocking and I'm not sure I buy him here in October, a month where the Red Sox have not won a game in three years. They are also just 2-7 here in Cleveland since the start of the 2014 regular season. Cleveland has the better bullpen and defense, which could prove to be more beneficial than Boston's offense here. 10* Run Line Cleveland (+1.5) | |||||||
10-05-16 | Georgia Southern v. Arkansas State +7.5 | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 20 m | Show |
10* Arkansas State (8:00 ET): The Red Wolves come into their conference (Sun Belt) opener as one of only five teams in the entire country that has yet to cover a single pointspread this season. They are also 0-4 SU having opened w/ Toledo (were actually favored in that one) and Auburn. The last 2 weeks have been especially frustrating as they've outgained both opponents only to come up short on the scoreboard. On both occasions, turnovers doomed them. They've given the ball away seven times and taken it away only once. Last time out was the most frustrating result of all as they lost to a FCS school (Central Arkansas) despite 469-382 edge in total yards (were -4 in TO's). But now the market has moved against them, quite severely in fact, and there's a ton of value in grabbing the points here in Jonesboro. Georgia Southern is also off a loss where it lost the TO battle 4-0. They fell to a very good Western Michigan squad, 49-31, but were outgained 407-370. It was their first SU loss of the season, but they'd opened w/ a much lighter slate than Arkansas State. The Eagles are in the midst of a brutal scheduling stretch as this is the second of what will be four consecutive road games. Next week, they're at Georgia Tech and that's a matchup they might be "peeking ahead" to. This is the team's first year under Tyson Summers as previous HC Willie Fritz departed to Tulane. The triple-option offense remains the same, but it's been a little less effective so far under Summers. They're down about 1.5 YPC from 2015. The ASU defense should benefit from the extra time to prepare. The strength of the Red Wolves is their front seven. Georgia Southern joined the SBC in 2014. Interestingly, they have yet to play Arkansas State. These are the last two conference champions with each turning in an unbeaten campaign. Last year was ASU's turn, so this fall to 0-4 is pretty stunning. But considering a 20-4 SU mark in SBC home games, this shapes up to be a pretty incredible price. Two of those four home conference losses came to Western Kentucky, who is no longer even in the Sun Belt. ASU has been a home dog just one time in the last two years and that was last season vs. Missouri, a game they covered (lost by a touchdown). I love this value. 10* Arkansas State | |||||||
10-03-16 | Giants +4 v. Vikings | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
10* NY Giants (8:30 ET): After Sunday, there are just three undefeated teams left: Denver, Philadelphia ... and Minnesota. Those three teams are also a combined 10-0 ATS. The Vikings are in action Monday, hosting a Giants team that has sought to "reverse the math" from the previous campaign. Whereas last season saw the team go just 3-8 SU in one-score games, they opened 2016 w/ a pair of narrow wins over the Cowboys and Saints. But then last week, the G-Men lost at home, 29-27 to the Redskins. With the NFC East better than advertised so far, they cannot afford to drop another game. Believe it or not, but Minnesota is an insane 17-3 ATS since the start of last season. I have to believe that record will begin to regress. Take the points. Remember that Minnesota is w/o both QB Teddy Bridgewater and RB Adrian Peterson. Sam Bradford has done noble work as the starter the L2 weeks (helped immensely by emerging WR Stefon Diggs), but I have no reason to believe that will continue. Bradford's entire career has been plagued by inconsistencies. These L2 weeks have seen the Vikings win outright as underdogs. First, it was over Green Bay (+1.5) here at home, 17-14. Then, last week they went to Carolina and prevailed 22-10 despite being outgained 306-211. That's hardly impressive offensive production. In three games, the Vikings offense has scored a grand total of three touchdowns. The defense/special teams has just as many, plus a safety last week for "good measure." This is simply an unsustainable model for success. Through three games, they have the fewest rushing yards (153) EVER for a 3-0 team! The Giants' offense has started surprisingly slow (21.0 PPG). But I do not anticipate that lasting. QB Eli Manning has a receiving corps as talented as any in the league: Odell Beckham, Jr, Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard. The defense has been a major surprise though, in a positive manner. While not as good as the Vikings, they're still allowing only 20.3 PPG. Note that this is the first time the G-Men are getting more than a point from the oddsmakers this season, so there's value there. I also believe playing indoors won't affect them as much as the road team. Studies have shown that NFL teams typically see a minor loss in homefield advantage the first two years of a new stadium. 10* NY Giants | |||||||
10-02-16 | Broncos v. Bucs +3 | Top | 27-7 | Loss | -109 | 46 h 45 m | Show |
10* Tampa Bay (4:05 ET): I look at this line and here's what I think. The books are essentially "inviting" a slew of public money. I will not take the bait. It sure makes sense as to why the Broncos shape up as the most public side of Week 4. The defending Super Bowl Champs come in at 3-0 SU and off an outright win, on the road, over a good Cincinnati team. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is off B2B bad losses, the last one coming here at home, to the LA Rams. But winning B2B road games in this league is hard to do as is failing to cover two straight at home. Tampa Bay was a much better team last year than it's 6-10 SU record. They actually finished third offensively in yards per play (5.9) and eighth defensively (5.2). It's more of the same in 2016 as they're outgaining opponents despite a 1-2 SU record. Home dogs are 7-4-3 ATS so far. Take the points. Last week saw the Bucs outgain the Rams 472-320 w/ a 30-18 first down edge! Yet, they still lost straight up as 3.5-pt favorites. Needless to say, you won't find a SU loser from the Week 3 slate that had a bigger advantage in total yardage. It was a game the Bucs led 20-10 in the second quarter. There was a long lightning delay that interrupted the game. Week 2, while a blowout loss, did see them lose the turnover battle by five, essentially guaranteeing defeat. They have not been a home dog since Week 9 of last season. Too many times in the last few years this team has lost a close game. Meanwhile, Denver has enjoyed incredible success in such affairs, going 12-3 SU in games decided by seven points or less since the start of last season. It's "high time" that TB won one of these games. Broncos QB Trevor Siemian had a breakout game LW in Cincinnati, throwing for 300+ yards and four touchdowns. I just can't see him duplicating those numbers here. It should be pointed out that Denver has trailed in the fourth quarter in two of its games. The other, a 34-20 win over Indianapolis, saw them score two defensive touchdowns. So, they're pretty fortunate to be 3-0. A 5-0 ATS win streak that dates back to LY's Super Bowl run is tied for the longest active in NFL. It's due to end. This line reminds me of the Arizona-Buffalo matchup last week where I cashed the home dog. 10* Tampa Bay. | |||||||
10-02-16 | Lions v. Bears +3 | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 73 h 34 m | Show |
10* Chicago (1:00 ET): Following B2B "duds" in primetime (lost to Eagles on MNF & Cowboys on SNF), the Bears have clearly fallen out of favor w/ the public. But I think this is a good opportunity to buy low on a desperate 0-3 SU team. Yes, the Monsters of the Midway have the worst point differential in the league through three weeks. But I don't think they should be a home dog to the division rival Lions. Granted, the team is just 1-8 SU, 1-7-1 ATS at Soldier Field since the start of last season, which is borderline unacceptable. They've also covered only one of their last eight games overall, going back to last season. Detroit is 6-0 SU the L3 years in this NFC North rivalry, but they are also a terrible 5-16 ATS as a road favorite since the start of the 2000 season. Take the points here. This is more of a play against the Lions, than a play on the Bears. I had a similar mentality in Week 2 when I took the points w/ Tennessee and they went into the Motor City and took the game outright, 16-15. Last week was a "back door cover" (for some) against Green Bay after trailing 31-3 in the first half. It's looking pretty clear at this point that the team's only win so far, 39-35 at Indianapolis in Wk 1, was a byproduct of facing a bad & banged up defense. Again, I personally just wouldn't want to be laying points w/ this group, especially on the road. We know that their defense is going to be w/o two key contributors, again, here. Those would be DE Ezekial Ansah and LB DeAndre Levy. Chicago is w/o QB Jay Cutler and RB Jeremy Langford. But, so what? It's not as if they had proven to be difference makers to this point. Brian Hoyer is far from ideal as a starting QB in this league, but at least he has experience. Don't be surprised if we see a big game here from rookie RB Jordan Howard in this spot. I say that because the L2 weeks have seen the Lions defense surrender 262 yds rushing at a ghastly 5.46 yards per pop. But, let's go back to the home futility the Bears are facing here. Six straight home losses in this league is hard to do. In franchise history, they have never lost seven straight home games. Both games vs. Detroit LY were decided by four points or less. Even if the Bears only win a few games in 2016, this figures to be one of them. 10* Chicago | |||||||
10-02-16 | Titans +5 v. Texans | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 33 m | Show |
8* Tennessee (1:00 ET): This is another of those division rivalries that has been totally one-sided in recent years. Houston has swept Tennessee each of the L2 years, both straight up and against the spread. All four games were decided by double digits. But, these young Titans are a bit improved so far in 2016 despite being 1-2 SU. On the defensive side of the ball is where the real improvement has come. Through three games, they're allowing an average of just 19 PPG. One of their losses (Minnesota in Wk 1) saw them not allow a single offensive touchdown. Since then, they've allowed just 16 and 17 points. Houston's defense, of course, has been severely weakened by the loss of JJ Watt (on IR) and their offense has simply not been very good so far. Take the points. Very few defensive players have an effect on the pointspread. Watt is certainly one of them and I don't think there's been a big enough adjustment here. The Texans defense is the reason the team is 2-1 SU, but the loss of Watt looms large. Keep in mind they have NEVER been w/o Watt since he came into the league. Linebacker Brian Cushing hasn't played since the first series of the opener. He could be back here, but won't be 100% if he is. Meanwhile, as alluded to above, this Texans offense stinks. They were shut out LW in New England, gaining less than 300 total yards. Their season high in yardage gained thus far is only 351. Questions remain w/ Brock Osweiler. Averaging only 14 PPG is not something you want to see out of a favorite, particularly when facing a much improved defense. In games that project to be low-scoring (like this one!), it's often a good idea to take the points. I realize Tennessee has not been one of the league's better bets the L2 years (5-13-1 ATS overall), but I look for that record to improve. The return of wide receiver Kendall Wright should help the offense. Turnovers (-5 margin through three weeks) are what has hurt this team more than anything else. The defense, facing what has been one of the worst offenses in the league, will keep them in the game throughout. For whatever reason, the Titans tend to play better on the road as was evident by when they went to Detroit in Week 2 and won outright (had 'em). 8* Tennessee | |||||||
10-01-16 | Wyoming +7 v. Colorado State | Top | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 49 m | Show |
8* Wyoming (10:15 ET): The annual "Border War" has not gone very well for the contingent from Laramie of late. The Pokes have lost three straight years to Colorado State, all by double digits. But the 2016 edition of Wyoming football still projects to be the strongest under Craig Bohl (HC since 2014). The team is much more experienced than last year (had just 7 seniors!) as they returned 17 starters. They have failed to cover three in a row, including an outright loss at Eastern Michigan LW (27-24, -6). That game wasn't decided until the final 90 seconds when EMU ran in a touchdown to take the lead. The Cowboys blew a 17-3 first half lead. Colorado State, off a close call LW at Minnesota, is getting a bit too much respect, IMO. Remember they were destroyed by Colorado (a 10* play on the Buffs for me), 44-7. Take the points. Wyoming's season opened up in impressive fashion as they beat Northern Illinois, 40-34 as seven-point home underdogs. They followed that up w/ a 52-17 loss in Nebraska, but that final score wouldn't have been so bad had it not been for six turnovers. Note that was a 24-17 game heading into the fourth quarter, in Lincoln! While 2-0 SU at home and 0-2 SU on the road, this is a good price range for the Cowboys. Being favored LW was pretty rare, but CSU certainly isn't on the same plane as Nebraska. Again, this is a pretty experienced group Bohl has back. Junior RB Brian Hill is the go to guy on offense w/ 463 yards already on 97 carries, six of those for touchdowns. CSU has already used three different quarterbacks in four games, which is not a great sign. Freshman Collin Hill has played relatively well the L2 wks, but I'm not sure if he should be trusted moving forward. The Rams have far less experience than the Cowboys (only 10 returning starters back from last year). Hill will face a talented Wyoming secondary, which already has five interceptions. Do not be surprised if the famed "Bronze Boot" goes to the road dog in this one. 8* Wyoming | |||||||
10-01-16 | Michigan State v. Indiana +7 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
10* Indiana (8:00 ET): Both teams are off outright losses as favorites last week. Michigan State lost, at home, to Wisconsin 30-6. The game wasn't nearly as lopsided as that score indicates, but it also should be pointed out that Sparty isn't nearly as strong as last year. All signs were pointing down for 2016 as last year's team was quite fortunate to finish 12-2 SU as half of those wins came by a TD or less. This season opened w/ an unimpressive win over Furman (FCS) and then the 36-28 road win over Notre Dame no longer looks as impressive considering the depths that the Fighting Irish have fallen to. Indiana was off a bye and at home in its 33-28 loss to Wake Forest last week, but it should be pointed out that the Hoosiers owned a decided 611-352 edge in total yardage, only to be undone by a -5 turnover margin. Take the points here. Another reason I like Indiana in this spot is the misleading final scores we've seen in the prior two meetings. To the "untrained eye," those games appear to be "ho-hum" blowouts in favor of Michigan State (56-17 and 52-26). Sparty was a 16-pt favorite both times. But note that two years ago, here in Bloomington, they trailed at the half (17-14) and didn't pull away until a 21-point 4Q. Last year was even more frustrating for Hoosiers backers. It was only a 28-26 game entering the 4Q in East Lansing, but MSU scored three TDs late (final 5:00) to steal the cover. Sparty wasn't the only top team IU played tough in 2015. They also hung tough w/ both Ohio State and Michigan, losing those games by only seven points apiece. HC Kevin Wilson has this program on an upward trajectory and it's only a matter of time that they end a 23-game losing skid to ranked Big 10 opponents. For the first time since 2010, Michigan State failed to score a touchdown in a conference game last week. They clearly miss 4-year starter Connor Cook as Tyler O'Connor was not effective last week nor was redshirt freshman Brian Lewerke. Now, IU QB Richard Lagow tossed five interceptions last week (only one called his "fault" by HC Wilson), but I like his chances of a bounce back performance this wk considering the offense still gained 600+ yds LW and also MSU could be w/o two starting linebackers here. The Hoosiers' defense is also improved this year. Sparty is just 1-5 ATS the L3 seasons as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. IU has been close many times the last couple years; here I can see them pulling an outright upset. 10* Indiana | |||||||
10-01-16 | South Florida v. Cincinnati +5.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -106 | 55 h 34 m | Show |
10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): The Bearcats sure aren't getting much respect at home this week, are they? Yes, QB Hayden Moore is listed as questionable. But the team has enough depth at the position to survive if he doesn't play here. Yes, the Bearcats were "blown out" 40-16 by Houston on national television a couple weeks ago. But they actually were ahead in that game early in the fourth quarter and were covering the spread until the final minutes.Yes, it was 65-27 USF last year. But that was in Tampa and saw Cincy turn the ball over six times. It makes this a huge revenge spot for the home team. I feel USF is still reeling after what happened last week, at home, against Florida State. The 55-35 loss where the defense appeared powerless to stop the 'Noles should be an eye-opener and I'm taking the points in a game I expect an outright win by the dog. I expected Cincinnati to be one of the most improved teams in the country this year. Last year's 7-6 squad was much better than its record. Note that they were +167.4 YPG in conference play, which was better than all other American teams, Houston included. Three of their losses came by eight points or less. This year hasn't gotten off to a great start, but they did win at Purdue and the defense has been better than I expected. Remember that the fourth quarter meltdown against Houston included two interception returns for TDs. Entering the fourth quarter, they'd allowed only 12 points to the high powered Cougars. In every other game, they've allowed 20 pts or less. I wouldn't worry too much about LW's close call vs. Miami (OH), who always plays Cincy tough. The Bearcats still were +148 in total yds and 29-14 in first downs. Redshirt freshman QB Ross Trail completed 25 of 38 passes for 276 yards. I believe the Bearcats offense will get it going against a USF defense that was absolutely run over last week to the tune of 55 points and 647 yards allowed. OK, Cincy may not be Florida State, but the week prior saw USF give up another 550 yards to Syracuse, a game they managed to win 45-20 thanks to a +3 turnover margin. That was just the fourth game that Willie Taggart has been favored on the road. This will be #5. I just think that this is a terrible line and after covering 13 of their previous 16 games, LW's loss to FSU should be the beginning of some good old regression to the mean for USF. 10* Cincinnati | |||||||
10-01-16 | Akron v. Kent State +7.5 | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 5 m | Show |
8* Kent State (3:30 ET): It didn't matter who Kent State played this week; automatically it would qualify as a drop in class. That's because last week the Golden Flashes had to travel to Tuscaloosa to take on top ranked Alabama. Things went about as well as you'd expect, which is to say "not well at all" as even the oddsmakers' generosity (were +42) was not enough. The 48-0 loss is "what it is," however, just one loss to a team they had no chance of beating. This game, however, is a much different story as they host rival Akron (schools just 12 miles apart) in the "Battle for the Wagon Wheel." It's a big revenge spot too for KSU as LY saw them shutout by Akron for the 1st time since '85 (20-0). The home team is now 9-2 SU the L11 years including four straight wins. I'll take the points! I will concede that it has not been a great start to the season for Kent State. The road losses to both Penn State and Alabama are certainly understandable. They, in fact, covered against Penn State (were getting 24 in 33-13 loss) and were down by just a field goal at the half. Last week, all they needed was one TD and they could have covered. But Nick Saban was not in a giving mood with his alma mater. The real "black eye" for the Golden Flashes though is a 39-36 home loss to North Carolina A&T in Week 2, which was a 4 OT game. They shouldn't be losing to FCS schools. But, with this being homecoming and a rivalry game, I expect this is the most motivated KSU will be for any game all season. Coinciding w/ the fact the Flashes are getting almost no public support here, I think they're a great value. Yes, I'm well aware KSU has already lost two QB's this season, but both were only freshman (one a redshirt). I expect sophomore George Bollas to make the most of this opportunity and he'll likely lean on another freshman, RB Justin Rankin, who leads all 1st year players in the MAC in rushing w/ 275 yds so far. The Flashes should be able to take advantage of an Akron defense that has been quite kind to opposing offenses thus far. The Zips have given up over 500 yards in three straight games and were in not for a stunning 65-38 win at Marshall two weeks ago (were 17.5-pt dogs), there's no way Terry Bowden's team would be getting this much respect here. Last week saw Akron lose by 7 at home to Appalachian State, a game they trailed by 17 at the half and gave up nearly 600 total yards. The Zips came into 2016 as one of the least experienced teams in the country (just seven returning starters) and are due for a "down year" following LY's breakthrough 8-5 SU campaign, in my opinion. The team is just 2-5-1 ATS as a road favorite under HC Bowden, losing four of those games outright, including the 2014 season finale here at Dix Stadium. 8* Kent State | |||||||
10-01-16 | Miami (Fla) v. Georgia Tech +7.5 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 35 m | Show |
8* Georgia Tech (12:00 ET): Typically, I'd be inclined to say that an off-week is a benefit for a team. But for 3-0 Miami this week, I do not think that's the case. The 14th ranked Hurricanes have now had two weeks to hear "how good they are" in year one under HC Mark Richt and have a big date with Florida State looming next Saturday. Thus, there's a decent chance they may be overlooking Georgia Tech here. That would be a mistake considering the Yellow Jackets not only have revenge for a 38-21 loss in Coral Gables LY (were 2-pt favorites there!), but they are also looking to atone for last Thursday's debacle here at Bobby Dodd Stadium against Clemson. This line has been bet up far too much, IMO, and there's significant value now on the dog. Take the points. The Georgia Tech faithful had to be pretty demoralized after the poor showing vs. Clemson. As someone who had the Jackets in the first half, I know that I certainly was. They wound up getting outgained 442-124 in the 26-7 loss (were +10.5), which was a national TV game, thus explaining the lack of public support here. But I think that what makes that result all the more disappointing is GT was coming off a sound 38-7 thumping of an SEC school (Vanderbilt) the week prior (outgained Vandy 511-275). Coming off LY's somewhat "worst case scenario" 3-9 finish (five losses by 7 pts or less), this was a team expected to improve in 2016 and improve they have, already matching LY's season win total. They have a nice win over a similarly improved BC squad in the opener. It is last week's poor showing influencing the line, I think. Again, remember GT was favored at Miami late last season! Though Miami comes off the bye week, GT has had a couple extra days to prepare here as well. The U hasn't really been tested yet as they've played two terrible in-state foes (Florida A&M, FAU) and Appalachian State. That App State game was a real "Pros vs. Joes" type affair w/ the public all over the 'Canes and the sharps all on the dog. The fact that the result was 45-10 actually works to our advantage here, though, as again it's all about the line value. GT has been the favorite against Miami three of the past four times these teams have played. This is Miami's first road game of the season and the visitor has dropped three straight in this ACC Coastal rivalry. Meanwhile, this is GT's fourth straight home game. 8* Georgia Tech | |||||||
10-01-16 | Notre Dame -10.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 50-33 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
8* Notre Dame (12:00 ET): I will readily concede that sharp money appears to be "lining up against" the Fighting Irish here. By kickoff, I expect them to be laying single digits at the betting window. But that's just fine by me. This happens to be the ONLY matchup on Saturday's NCAAF card pitting a favorite that lost its last game SU as a favorite against an underdog who won its previous game outright as a dog. Notre Dame has actually lost B2B games outright as a favorite. First, it was to Michigan State, 36-28 as 7.5-pt chalk. Then, last week, at home again they lost to Duke 38-35 as 21.5-pt chalk. Syracuse is off a 31-24 win at UConn as 2.5-pt dogs following B2B blowout losses at the Carrier Dome. This is a neutral site affair. I'm going to buy low on the Golden Domers and lay the points. For all the talk about how "bad" Notre Dame is right now, the team's three losses have come by a total of 14 points. The opener at Texas went to overtime and saw the offense score 47 points. They rebounded with a dominant 39-10 win over Nevada in South Bend. Turnovers have hurt them the L2 weeks as they were -2 against both Michigan State and Duke. There has not been a single game where this offense did not gain at least 400 total yards this year. Last week, they outgained Duke 534-498, but blew an early 14-0 lead starting when they allowed a kickoff return for a TD. I know that HC Brian Kelly got on his "pulpit," claiming all starting spots are up for grabs; look for that to really motivate the team, which is not nearly as bad as its record. Syracuse is not stout defensively. They have allowed 400+ yards to every FBS opponent they have faced so far. That includes UConn last week. Louisville gained an incredible 845 total yards on them. (Not a misprint!). The Orange often struggle to bring pressure and that's a big reason why their pass defense stinks. Look for Irish QB DeShone Kizer to take advantage. Kizer has already thrown for 1100 yards and has 16 touchdown. His offensive line does a good job at keeping him clean. Thus, the Irish's only issue here lies on the defensive end, but I expect them to play better here after coordinator Brian VanGorder was let go. Syracuse QB Eric Dungey is also not 100 percent and may not even play here. 8* Notre Dame | |||||||
09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington -3 | Top | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 33 h 36 m | Show |
8* Washington (9:00 ET): By now, you almost certainly are aware of last week's all-time "bad beat" involving Stanford. In the interest of full disclosure, I was on UCLA +3 (at home). Nevermind the fact that the Bruins led outright virtually the entire way, only to give up a late TD (to cap a 70-yd drive) to fall behind 16-13 w/ just 24 seconds to go. I could have settled for the push, I suppose. But no man should have to endure what happened next. On the game's final play, UCLA QB Josh Rosen was hit from behind, fumbled, and it was picked up and returned for a TD. Stanford 22, UCLA 13. No cover for me. I put that on the "Mt Rushmore" of bad beats, alongside Duke-Cincinnati (infamous Belk Bowl) and a similar Ohio St-Northwestern finish from 2013. Perhaps, I could be accused of "vengeful handicapping," but I'll be fading the Cardinal again this week. Here, they are a dog against a Washington team that I feel in the Pac 12's best. The 10th ranked Huskies are 4-0 straight up and prior to last week (at Arizona) had not been tested. Their first three wins came by an average of 39.3 points per game. Arizona, playing w/o its starting QB & RB took them to OT, but it was a game UW finished w/ a 512-475 edge in total yardage. Note that they were stopped on a fourth and 1 inside Arizona territory plus missed two field goals, so it's a game the Huskies probably should have finished off in regulation. Before allowing a pair of late touchdowns in the fourth quarter, I thought the Washington defense really dominated the second half. This unit leads the nation in takeaways, by the way. Though they're 3-0, I have not been that impressed w/ Stanford thus far. We've already been through LW's fortunate cover. The week prior, off a bye, they only needed to throw for 109 yds in a 27-10 win over USC. The season opener saw them fail to cover at home vs. Kansas State, a game they actually were outgained 335-272. Give Washington a big edge on offense in this matchup. Stanford is averaging just 25 PPG. UW QB Jake Browning, who missed LY's game vs. the Cardinal, is far more advanced at this stage than counterpart Ryan Burns. Look for Browning and a talented set of skill position players to take advantage of the fact that Stanford will be w/o BOTH starting corners Friday night. Washington has played Stanford tough recently w/ a win on a Thursday night here at home in 2012 and then two close losses in '13 and '14. As mentioned above, Browning did not play last year in Palo Alto. This is the Huskies year to emerge as the top team in the Pac 12, in my opinion. Their home field is one of the loudest in the conference, if not the nation. 8* Washington | |||||||
09-29-16 | Dolphins v. Bengals -7.5 | Top | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
8* Cincinnati (8:25 ET): In handicapping this game, I was shocked to find that it has been Miami that's both won and covered each of the L3 meetings. The last took place Halloween night (a Thursday) in 2013 and had the unusual finish of the Dolphins winning on a "walkoff" safety in overtime, 22-20. Like their previous two victories over Cincy, it was decided by one score. Miami is actually 8-2 SU/ATS the L10 head to head meetings. But many of those took place during a time when the Bengals were not competitive. Now, they are the perennial playoff contender while Miami is one of the worst run franchises in the sport. It's been a bit of a disappointing 1-2 start for Cincinnati so far, but I can't see them losing at home in B2B weeks considering an outstanding 20-5-1 SU mark at Paul Brown Stadium (reg season only) since 2013. Lay the points. The Bengals were a dominant team against the spread LY, going 12-3-2. But they are 0-3 at the betting window so far in 2016 and off B2B losses for just the third time in the L3 seasons. It should be noted that they are 2-0 SU/ATS in this situation. Last year, they destroyed St. Louis in this spot, 31-7. In 2013, they crushed Cleveland 41-20. Both of those games were at home and saw them laying more than a touchdown. It should also be noted that the two teams they've lost to are Pittsburgh and Denver, two of the AFC's best. Miami will easily be their weakest opponent so far this season. I think that many of the "issues" that have plagued the Bengals to this point can be alleviated by facing the Dolphins. Miami had a tough start to the season, drawing Seattle and New England right out of the gate. They covered, and probably should have won, against the Seahawks. But they fell behind big at New England and only made a game out of it once Jimmy Garoppolo exited. I faded them LW as they were laying a big number and barely survived in overtime. This defense is bad as is evident by them giving up 430 total yards to a Browns team that was starting a rookie, third-string QB. Bengals QB Andy Dalton comes in leading the league in passing. I expect Cincy's run game to have a big day as well. They gained 143 yds LW against one of the top defenses in the league. Miami has allowed 160+ rush yards in B2B games. As for the Miami offense, they have clear issues running the ball and there are multiple injuries along the offensive line. They could be starting a third string center. I expect QB Tannehill to be under duress throughout this game as the Bengals' D gets Vontaze Burfict back from suspension. The Dolphins' offense is 25th in rushing and 26th on third down. 8* Cincinnati | |||||||
09-29-16 | Connecticut +30 v. Houston | Top | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
10* UConn (8:00 ET): A number of factors have conspired to get this number so high. The most notable, of course, is that this is a revenge spot for Houston. The Cougars lone loss last season came at the hands of UConn, playing on the road w/o QB Greg Ward, Jr. They were still 10-pt favorites in Storrs, but fell 20-17, which was easily a season low in points scored and their 318 total yds also marked a season low. UH comes into this year's matchup w/ Ward and ranked #6 in the country. It doesn't help UConn's cause that they are 0-4 ATS, having played nothing but close games. Well, except for the fact that's created some value here w/ them now taking more than four touchdowns. I'm taking the points in what, to me, looks like a clear overlay. The latest UConn nailbiter saw them lose 31-24 to Syracuse last Saturday, at home. They came in as slight favorites there, but the sharp money was against them. They dominated the TOP (38:29-21:31), # of plays (91-66) and rushing yardage (144-62) battles. Tied 17-17 late in the third quarter, that game swung on a pick-six. Syracuse then put the game away late w/ a 99-yard drive. Of course, considering UConn had just survived a missed 20 yd FG the week prior (vs. Virginia), some may view last Saturday's result as a bit of comeuppance. But the fact remains, every UConn game this season has been decided by one score. Their defense remains strong under HC Bob Diaco. Last year, the Huskies allowed fewer than 20 PPG. This year, thanks to 10 returning starters, the offensive side of the ball has been a bit better as they are up to 354.4 YPG. This team is 7-2 ATS its last nine Thursday games. Houston obviously is rolling. It started w/ the impressive win over Oklahoma in the opener. Last week saw them absolutely humiliate Texas State, 64-3, finishing w/ a 565-142 edge in total yards (429-82 in 1st half!). This is a legit CFP contender, but they did have a misleading 40-16 final against Cincinnati on a Thurs night two weeks ago as they actually trailed outright heading into the fourth quarter. I get that the knee-jerk reaction is to call for revenge, but this is just far too many points to lay in a conference game. With a total just a shade over 50 pts, little is being expected from UConn. They'll score enough to stay within the number. 10* UConn | |||||||
09-26-16 | Falcons v. Saints -2.5 | Top | 45-32 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
8* 1st Half New Orleans (8:30 ET): Atlanta was a nice winner for me LW as they went to Oakland and prevailed, outright, 35-28 as a four-point dog. I think that's the reason that some of the sharper money has come in on them for Monday night. But, let us not forget that this is the same team that lost outright, at home, to Tampa Bay in Week 1. For all the valid criticisms that exist regarding the Saints' defense, much of the same applies to Dan Quinn's group, which has surrendered 59 points in two games. Back to back road wins seem unlikely for this team, especially considering they were swept by New Orleans last year. Early on, the Superdome should be rocking as this is the 10-year anniversary of the building reopening after Hurricane Katrina. It will be difficult for the Falcons to match the home team's intensity. While it may seem a little "unscientific" to cite emotional reasons for taking the Saints in the 1H, note that I made the mistake of fading this team 10 years ago in the famous game vs. Atlanta where the Superdome reopened. Looking at present times, New Orleans certainly needs no extra motivation as they return home at 0-2 SU and know another loss puts them in a severe hole. Last week saw them lose 16-13 to the Giants despite a +3 turnover margin. But we all know this is a much better team at home. Even though they lost here in Week 1, 35-34 to the Raiders, the offense rolled up over 500 yds total offense in that game and only lost when Oakland converted a two-point conversion in the final minute. So, that's two losses by a total of four points thus far. The much maligned defense actually didn't give up a TD last week! As I already mentioned, the Saints swept the Falcons last year, including a 31-21 win here at home in primetime (Thursday night game). This is a team that's gone 6-2 ATS the previous two seasons off B2B losses. Remember when the Saints never lost a home, primetime game? HC Sean Payton has owned Atlanta during his tenure here, going 15-5 SU against them. Furthermore, that includes an 8-2 mark at home with him covering four of the last five times. A second straight strong performance from Atlanta on the road just seems unlikely, especially in this environment. This is a good value only needing a halftime lead. 8* 1st Half New Orleans | |||||||
09-25-16 | Bears +7.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -127 | 50 h 0 m | Show |
8* Chicago (8:25 ET): Certainly I can't see the public showing "much love" to an 0-2 Bears team that was just embarrassed LW at home on MNF. Not to mention, they lost starting QB Jay Cutler in that 29-14 loss to the Eagles and thus are forced to turn to Brian Hoyer here. Despite that, I feel the linesmakers have made a classic overadjustment with the spread, which was set to be -4.5 prior to the MNF debacle. Dallas is fortunate not to be 0-2 themselves as they took advantage a Kirk Cousins INT in the end zone LW and went down to score the GW TD in a 27-23 win over the Redskins. Remember they are starting a rookie QB (Dak Prescott) themselves. I anticipate a close game here. Take the points. The Cowboys were outgained last week, 432-380. Week 1 saw the offense put only 19 points on the board. This is the first time that this team will have been substantially favored (were -1 vs. NYG). We all know how poorly HC Jason Garrett has been in the chalk role throughout his career. They are just 7-11 ATS laying points the L3 seasons, including 1-3 at home if laying more than a field goal, but less than a touchdown. and let's not forget about a terrible 4-13 ATS home record either that includes an outright loss to the Giants. They are 8-24 ATS as a home favorite under Garrett and have actually now lost EIGHT straight home games dating back to last year and their last home win w/o Tony Romo as the QB was all the way back in 2010! There are injuries along the offensive line, which is the strength of this team. The running game has yet to really get going. The good news for Chicago is that Alshon Jeffrey will play. That makes life easier on Hoyer. Note that the Bears defense only allowed 280 total yards last week. What killed them was a -3 turnover margin. Clean that up and things can be just fine. Hoyer, while not ideal, has won games in this league before, certainly more than Prescott. I just don't think Dallas should be laying this many points - to any opponent right now. 8* Chicago | |||||||
09-25-16 | Browns +10 v. Dolphins | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 70 h 6 m | Show |
8* Cleveland (1:00 ET): Things are quickly going from "bad to worse" in Cleveland w/ the Browns turning to their third starting QB in as many games. It will be Cody Kessler (USC) going here in Week 3 and making his job more difficult is the fact fellow rookie Corey Coleman, the receiver out of Baylor, is out w/ a broken hand. Little to nothing was expected from the Browns, but their 0-2 start is making you wonder where & when the wins will come this season. They clearly grade out as the worst team in the league right now. That all being said, I don't believe that their opponents, the Miami Dolphins, deserve to be in this price range against anybody right now. They too are 0-2 and coming off tough road games vs. Seattle and New England, I don't think a simple return home equals a blowout. Take the points here. Miami was in position to upset Seattle in Week 1, but allowed a late TD to lose that one, 12-10. Things did not get off to a good start LW in New England as they fell behind 31-3 and only rallied to make a game out of it once Pats QB Jimmy Garoppolo left w/ an injury. QB Ryan Tannehill was able to pile up some meaningless passing stats facing a vanilla New England defense that was basically playing a prevent for much of the 2H. Of greater concern w/ the Dolphins offense is that Tannehill leads the team in rushing through two games w/ 52 yards! The team's running backs are averaging just 3.3 YPC and Arian Foster has been ruled out for this week. Up front, center Mike Pouncey seems doubtful as he hasn't practiced all week. Yes, it's a real "motley crew" for the Browns on offense here. But I think they'll still be able to move the ball here on a Miami defense that is not good. Consider that the Dolphns are allowing 136.5 rush YPG so far and gave up 465 total to a Patriots team that was playing w/ a second and then third string QB. Cleveland did show some life LW at home vs. Baltimore, jumping out to a 20-0 lead before blowing it and losing 25-20. They did outgain the Ravens, 387-382. Again though, this one boils down to a bad team laying a lot of points. Consider that this is the FIRST time since the final week of the 2013 season where they have been asked to lay a TD or more. The last time they closed as a DD favorite was 2009! The oddsmakers have adjusted far too much for a QB change (McCown to Kessler) that is largely irrelevant. Take the points. 8* Cleveland | |||||||
09-25-16 | Ravens v. Jaguars +1.5 | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -102 | 70 h 5 m | Show |
8* Jacksonville (1:00 ET): Is 0-2 Jacksonville this bad and 2-0 Baltimore this good? I'm banking on the answer to both questions being "no." The winless Jaguars had a relatively strong Week 1 showing as they took favored Green Bay to the limit, losing 27-23. At the time, holding Aaron Rodgers and the Packers under 300 total yds seemed really impressive. But then Gus Bradley's defense was torched by San Diego last week in a 38-14 loss that was never close. I laid the points w/ the Chargers in that game, mind you. Baltimore's 2-0 SU/ATS start has come at the expense of a pair of bad teams - Buffalo and Cleveland - and the games were decided by a total of 11 pts. The Ravens lost their fair share of close games last year, so it's nice to see fortune going their way in 2016. However, I see this being their first loss of 2016. In Week 1 against Buffalo, the Ravens scored only 13 points. Last week, on the road, they had to squeak by a Cleveland team that happens to be the worst in the league. They trailed early, 20-0 in fact, before rallying to win by five. They were slightly outgained by the Browns. Even after that win, the Ravens are still just 9-16 SU on the road the L4 seasons. Therefore, I don't like the idea of them winning B2B weeks away from home. As a matter of fact, they haven't pulled off B2B road wins since 2012! Were it not for three long Justin Tucker FG's last week and a blocked PAT return for safety, Baltimore would have lost to the Browns. I think it's fair to say Jacksonville is their toughest opponent to date. The Jags should be motivated here after the dismal showing last week against a good San Diego team. While Jacksonville is the toughest opponent Baltimore will have faced to this point, a case could be made that the Ravens are the Jaguars' weakest opponent so far. I realize that Blake Bortles and the offense have disappointed so far, but w/ RB Chris Ivory set to play for the first time, the run game should be better here. I think that the maligned defense will step up against a Baltimore offense that has scored all of three touchdowns this year. Again, two weeks ago, the Jags held the Packers under 300 total yds here at home. Over the past two years, the Ravens are 1-6 SU off B2B SU wins. 8* Jacksonville | |||||||
09-25-16 | Cardinals v. Bills +4 | Top | 18-33 | Win | 100 | 70 h 2 m | Show |
8* Buffalo (1:00 ET): This certainly shapes up as a classic "pros vs. joes" spot as on paper, there's no real reason to believe in the 0-2 Bills here against a Cardinals team that just won its last game, 40-7. But it is an early start time for Arizona and the line has done some "curious" things over the course of the week. The Cards opened as roughly 5.5-pt favorites and have received the bulk of the tickets (over 80%) for this Week 3 matchup. Yet, the number has come DOWN. This is a real "must-win" spot for Buffalo HC Rex Ryan, who just fired his OFFENSIVE coordinator after losing a game 37-31 (to the Jets). That loss did occur on a Thursday night, so there's been added time to prepare here. Remember that the Cardinals did lose at home in Week 1 to the Jimmy Garoppolo-led Patriots. To quote Chris Berman (ugh!), I'll call for Buffalo to "circle the wagons." Take the points. Arizona really benefited from a +5 turnover margin LW against Tampa Bay. Granted, there's no point in picking apart a 40-7 win, but any team will win in this league if they're +5 in TO's. A key thing to watch with this Cardinals defense is that Tyronn Mathieu is still attempting to get over LY's ACL injury and is not ready to assume his normal role. Instead, he's been relegated to the simple role of free safety. Also, there are injuries along the offensive line. LT Jared Veldheer was added to the injury list during the week and RG Evan Mathis had a foot that looked "purple" according to QB Carson Palmer. I'll reiterate that we've seen "West Coast" teams struggle when coming out East for these early start times. Incredibly, this is only the second time Arizona has played at Buffalo since 1990! Injuries and disarray have led to the Bills falling out of favor with the public. But I find it hard to believe that the defense is as bad as it looked LW vs. the Jets. This is, after all, still a Rex Ryan defense. They held Baltimore to only 13 pts here at home in Week 1. Last week, the offense woke up. Although Sammy Watkins may not play here, they should be used to playing w/o him at this point. Again, Ryan's back is against the wall here. He needs this game badly. I expect an "all-out effort" here from the Bills, who are 5-2 ATS getting a FG or more at home since the start of the 2013 season. Arizona won too many close games LY - they are due to drop one. 8* Buffalo | |||||||
09-25-16 | Redskins +3.5 v. Giants | Top | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 43 h 31 m | Show |
10* Washington (1:00 ET): The Redskins are off to an 0-2 start, both losses coming at home. In Week 1, on Monday Night Football, they were embarrassed by Pittsburgh (lost 38-16). But they probably should have won LW vs. Dallas. They outgained the Cowboys 432-380, but a terrible Kirk Cousins INT (in the end zone) really swung that game. Now, last year's NFC East leaders are in a desperate spot, facing a division rival that's 2-0. The Giants, who lost a ton of close games LY, have won their two games this year by a total of four points. So that's certainly a reversal of fortune. Last week against the Saints, they won despite not scoring an offensive TD. A decision to kick a FG and not go in the end zone at the end of the game cost bettors a cover. What I see here is a desperate 0-2 underdog in a division tilt. I'm going to take the points as the G-Men are a little lucky to be 2-0. I'd like to see Washington run the ball a bit more here w/ Matt Jones. Granted, New York is conceding just 3.3 YPC so far, but that's because they just faced a Saints team that ran the ball only 13 times for 41 yards. It was definitely Cousins that blew the game LW as w/ his team up 23-20 he threw a terrible INT in the end zone. Dallas wound up driving for the GW TD on the subsequent drive. There were also two Redskins drives that started inside the Cowboys' 40-yd line, but only resulted in field goals. I have to believe the 'Skins offense is better than its shown so far. I also don't believe the Giants' defense is as good as it's looked. Though New York has allowed only 32 points in two games, they haven't forced any turnovers and have just two sacks. MetLife Stadium has been a house of horrors for the Redskins the L3 seasons as they've lost by double digits every time. But I can't see that scenario playing out a fourth straight time. The L3 seasons have seen the Giants go just 3-3 straight up and 2-4 ATS following B2B SU wins. Again, I have to see Washington's third down conversion rate and red zone efficiency improving. WR DeSean Jackson is on track to play here. The whole Odell Beckham Jr vs. Josh Norman situation is overhyped and irrelevant to me here. The Giants have a big hole along the offensive line entering this game w/ RT Marshall Newhouse out. I expect the Redskins D-line to take advantage and lead the team to no worse than a cover (possible outright win). 10* Washington | |||||||
09-24-16 | Bowling Green +17.5 v. Memphis | Top | 3-77 | Loss | -115 | 53 h 8 m | Show |
10* Bowling Green (8:00 ET): Dino Babers left for Syracuse and it's been tough sledding for Bowling Green in year one under Mike Jinks. An 0-3 ATS record isn't about to get them any love from the oddsmakers here, especially w/ their only SU win coming by a single point over North Dakota. But I'll call for the best BGSU performance to date here in a revenge spot at Memphis. They're big dogs. Last year, as three-point home dogs, they lost a wild one to the Tigers, 44-41. But Memphis is a team set to decline in 2016 as well as they lost QB Paxton Lynch to the NFL. They haven't even been remotely tested yet as their first two opponents were SE Missouri State (FCS) and maybe the worst Power 5 team, Kansas, off a bye. Take the points in what I anticipate will be a close game. When Memphis beat BGSU last year, it was the first of three consecutive wins by seven points or less. They were actually outgained in that game 579-541, but won in large part to forcing four turnovers. They trailed by a TD with just over seven minutes to go. Turnovers were also the story LW vs. Kansas as the Tigers forced SIX in the 43-7 triumph. They only outgained the Jayhawks 394-314, so the lopsided final doesn't seem fair. There has also been a big loss on this Tigers defense as senior OLB Jackson Dillon is officially done for the year. After two offseason knee procedures, Dillon tried to give it a go in the opener vs. SE Missouri State, but to no avail (played only eight snaps). Dillon started 31 games the past three seasons, registering 109 tackles including 20.5 for loss. He'll obviously be missed. Bowling Green took on Ohio State in their season opener and that went as well as you'd expect. Then came the one-point win over North Dakota, which saw them overcome three turnovers. Last week, they turned it over FOUR times against Middle Tennessee, resulting in a 41-21 loss. Total yardage was basically even (436-433) and BG actually had more first downs (24-20). The problem was that they "forgot" to score in the second half. Twice the offense turned the ball over on downs after 50+ yard drives inside the red zone. One of the two second half INT's was thrown in the red zone, so that was three trips inside the MT 20-yd line that resulted in zero points. Another INT took place at midfield. Take away those turnovers and it was a much different game LW. It will be a much different Falcons team this week. 10* Bowling Green | |||||||
09-24-16 | Stanford v. UCLA +3 | Top | 22-13 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 7 m | Show |
10* UCLA (8:00 ET): The Bruins have lost eight straight times to Stanford, but it all sets up for them to break the losing streak this year. For starters, they're seemingly not drawing much support despite being at home Saturday night. The lookahead line for this game was UCLA -1, but w/ them already having dropped a game (at Texas A&M in overtime) and Stanford off an impressive win over USC last week, the role of favoritism has flipped. I like that as we're now able to grab some value. By the way, that loss to A&M no longer looks bad (Aggies are 3-0 SU), especially because it was in College Station. While 0-3 ATS, the Bruins got backdoored LW at BYU, a game they led 17-0, but gave up a late TD to win only 17-14. Take the points. UCLA actually outgained A&M in that season opener, 468-442 w/ a 28-23 first down edge. Despite trailing 24-9 late in the third quarter, they had a chance to win the game in regulation. But they didn't and we know how that one turned out. Week 2 was a 42-21 victory over an improved UNLV squad where the Bruins offense racked up nearly 500 total yds (499) and 30 first downs. Then, like I said, last week saw they jump out to a 17-0 advantage on the road vs. BYU. Again, they finished w/ the edge in total yardage, 357-273. This defense, which returned nine starters, has been pretty solid in not allowing a single opponent to top 24 pts in regulation this year. I don't think there can be any dispute as to which side has the edge at QB in this matchup. Josh Rosen, though only a sophomore, certainly is the better option compared to Stanford's first year starter Ryan Burns. Stanford is probably a program deserving of more respect. They won 12 games LY and destroyed Iowa in the Rose Bowl. But the schedule has been favorable so far as they drew a bye before hosting USC last week. Burns was asked to throw only 15 times in that game. A season opening win over Kansas State wasn't quite as dominant as the 26-13 final (covered as 11.5-pt favorites) suggests as the Cardinal offense failed to gain 300 total yards (only 272!). Kansas State had 335. Turnovers have been a huge story in the L7 Stanford-UCLA matchups w/ a +11 margin in favor of the Cardinal. But Stanford won't have the usual edge over UCLA at QB or in the trenches in this game. I'll call for HC Jim Mora to get his "signature" win in Westwood. 10* UCLA | |||||||
09-24-16 | Florida v. Tennessee -6.5 | Top | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 49 h 43 m | Show |
10* Tennessee (3:30 ET): Yes, I'm well aware that Tennessee has not looked all that impressive so far. Hence, they've fallen from #9 to #14 in the rankings despite remaining unbeaten. There have been two uninspired wins, over Appalachian State and Ohio, that don't inspire a ton of confidence. In between, there was a 45-24 win over Virginia Tech, but they were actually outgained by the Hokies, 400-330, and probably only won because of forcing five turnovers. But motivation should be no issue here as the Vols look to snap the dreaded 11-game losing streak to Florida. Last year's loss was perhaps the most painful of the bunch as they outrushed the Gators 254-109 and led 27-14 w/ just over 10 minutes to go. But they then gave up two touchdowns, one of them a 63-yarder on a 4th down. As time expired, they missed a 55-yard FG. With this line now inside of a touchdown, I like UT to finally exact revenge. Florida is w/o its starting QB, Luke Del Rio, here. Reportedly, it's a strained MCL, which means he'll be out 2-4 weeks probably. That's a really crushing blow to the Gators. Del Rio had completed over 61% of his pass attempts for 762 yards and six TD's so far. His replacement will be Purdue graduate transfer Austin Appleby. While Appleby has starting experience (11 games), much of it is not good as his record is just 2-9 SU in those games. He completed only 57.4% of his pass attempts last year and more concerning was the eight interceptions he tossed in 207 total pass attempts. I know Tennessee is down a few players on defense, most notably CB Cameron Sutton, but they are still a top 15 unit nationally. I see Florida really struggling to put points on the board Saturday afternoon in Neyland Stadium. Much is being made of the Gators' defense here. They've allowed just 14 points in three games, but that's come at the expense of three pretty terrible offenses - UMass, Kentucky and North Texas. All three games also took place in Gainesville. I think UT QB Joshua Dobbs is going to have a good game here. Last week saw the Vols' offense gain a season-high 404 total yards. The last two years have seen Florida win by a combined two points. This is the biggest game of the Butch Jones' era so far. If there is one game that I would bet on Tennessee this year, it would be this one. 10* Tennessee | |||||||
09-24-16 | Pittsburgh +7 v. North Carolina | Top | 36-37 | Win | 100 | 49 h 40 m | Show |
8* Pittsburgh (3:30 ET): Pitt is coming off its first loss of the season. It was a bit of an odd situation in Stillwater against Oklahoma State as there was a near two-hour weather delay in the fourth quarter w/ the score tied 38-38. OSU would go on to score the lone TD of the quarter, with just 1:28 to take the game. That result should certainly have the Panthers motivated, not that they needed any extra as this is a triple revenge spot vs. UNC. The Tar Heels are also 2-1 SU, but opened their season w/ a loss (33-24 to Georgia) only to come back and score a total of 104 points in wins over Illinois and James Madison. But they too have defensive issues, namely giving up nearly 500 total yds to JMU last week. Take the points here in what profiles as a pretty even matchup where an outright upset is a distinct possibility. A big key here is the Pitt running game going against a very soft UNC run defense. Going back to the final three games of LY, the Tar Heels are giving up a stunning average of 325 rushing YPG. Obviously, a lot of that has to do w/ the embarrassing bowl performance against Baylor (625), but still they did just give up the fourth most rush yards to a FCS opponent this season (by an FBS foe). Pitt has RB James Conner back on the field this year after he was diagnosed w/ Lymphoma less than a year ago. His return is one of the great stories right now in College Football. Led by Conner (225 YPG), Pitt has run for more than 600 yards its last two games! So, suffice to say, I think we know what they'll try and do offensively here. Given UNC's inability to stop the run, they should have little difficulty. I mentioned earlier that this is a triple revenge spot for Pitt. As ACC opponents, they've yet to beat the Tar Heels w/ all three losses coming by seven points or less. Two years ago, here in Chapel Hill, they actually took an early 14-0 and led most of the way. But UNC scored a TD in the final minute to take the game 40-35 as a two-point favorite. Last year, was a 26-19 game on a Thursday night. I never thought Gene Chizik's defense was as "improved" as it was made it out to be LY and we're starting to see that this year. The Panthers are 8-4 SU in ACC road games all-time w/ the average win coming by more than a touchdown. They absolutely can win this game outright. 8* Pittsburgh | |||||||
09-24-16 | Nevada v. Purdue -6 | Top | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 11 m | Show |
8* Purdue (12:00 ET): It goes w/o saying that this is a huge game in the tenure of Darell Hazell at West Lafayette. This is Hazell's fourth year here and so far he has only seven wins to his name. Four of those, including this year's season opener against Eastern Kentucky (45-21), have come against FCS foes. So, at home and coming off a bye here, the Boilermakers absolutely must take advantage of a Nevada team that's flying East for an uncharacteristic early start time. Purdue actually received the bulk of the dollars wagered in their last game, a 38-20 loss to Cincinnati. But that was a bit of a misleading final there as they actually were virtually even w/ the Bearcats in terms of total yardage (512-504), only to be undone by a -5 turnover ratio. The importance of this game will not be lost on Hazell and the staff. All but one of Hazell's wins here at Purdue have been in home games. Lay the points. Nevada's season got off to a bit of a dicey start as they first allowed 27 pts in a close call against Cal Poly SLO (FCS team) and then 39 in a blowout loss at Notre Dame. That's not surprising considering the Wolfpack lost its entire front seven from a year ago! On the offensive side, they lost coordinator Nick Rolovich, who they'll see again next week as he's the new HC in Hawaii (that's another road game where the Wolfpack will be facing a rested foe). The team did bounce back LW w/ a dominating 38-14 over Buffalo in Reno (were 12-pt favorites). But I still look to the fact the offense ran for only 99 yds against Notre Dame and was actually outgained by Cal Poly SLO 445-363! I mentioned earlier how this is a RARE trip East for the program. It's actually just the fourth in the L6 years, but second in three weeks! Notre Dame didn't go well, nor did a 62-7 loss to Florida State in 2013. They did win at Buffalo, by three, last year. Five turnovers will almost automatically lead to a loss in College Football. For Purdue two weeks ago, three INT's led to Cincinnati TD's. There was also a missed 28 yd FG. It has to be tough for Boilermaker fans to see two transfers currently starting for SEC teams at QB. But David Blough is someone who threw 5 TD's in an upset of Nebraska last year. This team also played Michigan State tough, on the road, last year. Purdue could be a dog in every Big 10 game this year, so this is a must-win. This team has experience (16 returning starters), rest, the schedule in their favor and should be supremely motivated. Dating back pre-Hazell (2003), Purdue has won 67% of its non-conf home games (26-13). Two defensive starters that missed the first two games - CB Da'Wan Hunte and DE Austin Larkin - are set to make their 2016 debuts here. The Boilermakers should win here - big. 8* Purdue | |||||||
09-23-16 | USC +3 v. Utah | Top | 27-31 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
10* USC (9:00 ET): The "bloom is off the rose" at USC and I understand this is NOT a good spot for Clay Helton's Trojans, at least on paper. Remember, this was a team I faded in the opener when they got humiliated 52-6 by Alabama. A 45-7 win at the Coliseum (over Utah State) proved to be nothing more than a "one-week mirage" as last week saw them get whipped again, this time 27-10 by Stanford. But I think it's important to note that USC's two losses have come against top five caliber opponents. From here on out, everything will be a drop in class. Yes, this is a revenge spot for Utah (USC won 42-24 LY as three-point home favorites, ending Utah's perfect season). Yes, this will be the first career start for Trojans QB Sam Darnold, a redshirt freshman, and it's a road game + a short week. But I look for USC to rally behind Darnold and take this game. Take the points. Utah is 3-0 SU w/ a scare against rival BYU. They won that game 20-19 despite SIX turnovers. Last week, they avoided the dreaded "sandwich spot" by besting San Jose State 34-17 as 13.5-pt chalk. The key there was 10 sacks, a bit of a surprise considering the defense had just lost starting DE Kyle Fitts earlier in the week. Fitts is done for the season and I expect his absence to be felt moving forward. I also don't really trust this Utah offense, which has a first year starter at QB (transfer Troy Williams). Already, the Utes have fumbled the ball nine times (lost five) and Williams has thrown 4 INTs. If one was to look at USC as a stock, this is clearly a "buy low" scenario. The offense can't be any worse than it was against either 'Bama or Stanford. Darnold is a "dual threat" QB, meaning he can run, and that should add another dimension to the Trojans' attack. The key, as it is in almost any CFB game, will be not turning the ball over. Defensively, I think USC will be all right here as long as they don't give up any big plays. LW, they held Stanford to just 109 passing yards. Because Utah has cracked the top 25, we've seen this line bet up during the week and that's created some value. I expect this to be a relatively low-scoring affair, so that's yet another reason to back the underdog. 10* USC |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
William Burns | $516 |
Ricky Tran | $412 |
Sean Higgs | $152 |
Dan Kaiser | $151 |
Will Rogers | $131 |
Ray Monohan | $58 |
Jimmy Boyd | $47 |
Sean Murphy | $21 |
Joey Tron | $11 |