Frank Sawyer - Betting Expert

FRANK’S CUTTING ROOM FLOOR FOR SUNDAY, 4/27:

My “Cutting Room Floor” plays are the situations I considered the closest to being worthy of investment but did not make the “final cut” for my official plays today for subscribers. The last play I cut for Sunday is with Under the Total in the game between the Boston Celtics and the Orlando Magic. Boston (63-22) had won four games in a row before their 95-93 upset loss on the road against the Magic as a 5.5-point underdog on Friday. The Celtics have played 7 of their last 10 games Under the Total after a loss by six points or less. They have also played 9 of their last 10 games Under the Total when playing with revenge. Orlando (43-43) made this a 2-1 series with their first win against Boston in these playoffs. The Magic have played 16 of their last 23 games Under the Total after a straight-up win at home. They have also played 11 of their last 15 games at home Under the Total as an underdog. Take the Under. Best of luck — Frank.

Frank Sawyer’s Hollywood Sports is still on an 11 of 16 (69%) NBA Game of the Month/Year Playoff run despite losing with Houston last night! Frank remains on a 10 of 15 (67%) NBA Game of the Month/Year sides run — and now he furthers his 5 of 7 (71%) NBA Game of the Month/Year Playoff mark with a SUPER SIDE SITUATION for his 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Month tonight! DO NOT MISS OUT!

At 7:05 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the Boston Celtics (573) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (574) in Game Four of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinals series. THE SITUATION: Boston (63-22) had won four games in a row before their 95-93 upset loss on the road against the Magic as a 5.5-point favorite on Friday. Orlando (43-43) trails in this series by a 2-1 margin.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CELTICS MINUS THE POINTS: Jrue Holiday is out for Boston tonight as he deals with a hamstring injury — but Jayson Tatum is probable despite his wrist injury and Jaylen Brown is expected to play despite being officially listed as questionable because of his knee. Tatum scored 36 points in Game Three while Brown added 19 points. The Celtics only made 44.6% of their shots on Friday which was the worst shooting effort for them in this series. But Boston has covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after failing to score more than 100 points in their last game. They have also covered the point spread in 14 of their last 18 games after suffering an upset loss in their last game including all seven of those games played on the road. They have covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games after a loss by six points or less including all four of those games played on the road. Additionally, the Celtics have covered the point spread in 11 of their last 18 games on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 12 of their last 17 road games when favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points. Orlando pulled off the upset despite only making 41.0% of their shots. They are only making 43.5% of their shots in this series which is resulting in a mere 93.7 Points-Per-Game. Scoring is the Achilles’ heel of this season since they only make 44.5% of their shots this season which has produced only 105.2 PPG. They rank 27th in the NBA in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency. The Magic have failed to cover the point spread in 7 of their last 10 games after pulling off an upset victory. They have also failed to cover the point spread in 8 of their last 12 games after a win by six points or less. And in their last 21 games as an underdog getting 3.5 to 9.5 points, they have failed to cover the point spread in 13 of those games.

FINAL TAKE: Boston has covered the point spread in 14 of their last 19 games when playing with revenge. They have also covered the point spread in 8 of their last 10 games when avenging a loss on the road — and they have covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games when playing with revenge from a loss on the road. 25* NBA Sunday TNT Game of the Month is with the Boston Celtics (573) minus the points versus the Orlando Magic (574). Best of luck for us — Frank.

At 7:10 PM ET on Sunday, we will be playing the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (962) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (961) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Aaron Nola. THE SITUATION: Chicago (17-10) had won three games in a row before their 10-4 loss at home against the Phillies on Saturday. Philadelphia (13-13) snapped a five-game losing streak with the win.

REASONS TO TAKE THE CUBS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Chicago should bounce back tonight as they have won 8 of their last 10 games after a loss this season. They have also won 10 of their last 14 games after allowing 10 or more runs in their last contest. They have still won 19 of their last 26 games at home in April. Taillon gets the ball tonight as he looks to build on his 1-1 record along with a 4.73 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in five starts so far this season. The deeper sabermetrics are encouraging with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 3.89 and 3.76 moving forward. The right-hander got hit hard for six earned runs in 4 1/3 innings in his first start of the season on the road in Arizona back in March. In his two starts at home this season, Taillon has a 3.27 ERA along with a 1.00 WHIP and a .195 opponent’s batting average. Last season, Taillon enjoyed a 2.18 ERA along with a 1.06 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .224 in 15 starts at home at Wrigley Field. He faces a Phillies team that ranks just 16th and 19th in MLB on the road against right-handed pitchers in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created. Philadelphia has lost 6 of their last 8 games after winning their last game. They have also lost 8 of their last 11 games on the road. Additionally, the Phillies have lost 28 of their last 46 games on the road with the Total set in the 8-8.5 range. They have also lost 19 of their last 31 road games as a money-line underdog priced up to +150. They have also lost 6 straight games on the road when priced in the +/- 125 range. They counter with Nola who has a 0-5 record along with a 6.43 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP this season. There were warning signs last year of the right-hander’s decline as his 8.9 strikeouts per nine innings rate was the lowest since his rookie season. He was more effective at home last year where he sported a 3.29 ERA along with a 1.10 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .223 — but in his 16 starts on the road, he was saddled with a 3.87 ERA along with a 1.31 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .273. He faces a Cubs lineup that ranks second and sixth in MLB against right-handed pitchers in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created.

FINAL TAKE: The Cubs have won 9 of their last 13 games when priced as a money-line favorite up to -150 — and they have won 5 of their last 6 games at home when priced in the +/- 125 range. 8* MLB Sunday Night Discounted Deal with the money-line on the Chicago Cubs (962) versus the Philadelphia Phillies (961) listing both starting pitchers Jameson Taillon and Aaron Nola. Best of luck for us — Frank.