Frank Sawyer - Betting Expert

At 8:10 PM ET on Friday, we will be playing the money-line on the Houston Astros (918) versus the Texas Rangers (917) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers Jr. and Jack Leiter. THE SITUATION: Houston (55-38) has lost three games in a row after their 4-2 loss at home against Cleveland on Wednesday. Texas (46-48) has won two of their last three games after their 11-4 victory on the road against the Los Angeles Angels last night.

REASONS TO TAKE THE ASTROS WITH THE MONEY-LINE: Houston closed out last weekend riding high by sweeping the Dodgers in Los Angeles by a combined 29-6 score in those three contests. But their starting pitcher let them down to begin the week by getting swept in three games against the Guardians. The Astros should bounce back tonight as they have won 5 of their last 7 games at home after an off-day. They have also won 27 of their last 37 games after losing their last game including 13 of those 18 games played at home. Houston has won 32 of their 49 games at home this season — and they have won 16 of their 25 home games with the Total set in the 8 to 8.5 range. They have also won 7 of their last 9 home games against teams with a losing record — and they have won 17 of their 28 games at home this year when the oddsmakers installed them as a money-line favorite up to a -150 price. McCullers gets the ball tonight looking to build on his 2-3 record along with a 5.82 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in nine starts. The right-hander has predictably been up-and-down in his return from arm surgery, which kept him on the shelf for all of 2023 and 2024. He comes off a great start last Friday on the road against the Dodgers when he scattered four hits and gave up just one run in six innings of work. The deeper sabermetrics indicate he should get giving up at least one run less per start with both his SIERA and xFIP projecting an ERA of 4.47 and 4.59 moving forward. His expected ERA (xERA) from Statcast, which incorporates exit velocity and hard-hit rate into the otherwise fielding independent data, sits at 4.67. McCullers has historically been more effective when pitching at home at Minute Maid Park. In his career 70 starts at home, he enjoys a 3.08 ERA along with a 1.15 WHIP and an opponent’s batting average of .184 as opposed to his 4.21 ERA, a 1.40 WHIP, and a .261 opponent’s batting average in 69 appearances (66 starts) on the road. The Astros have won 18 of their 25 games at home in McCullers career when he is making the start and priced as a money-line favorite up to -150. They have also won 16 of their 24 games at home when McCullers is on the mound assigned to stop a team losing streak. He should pitch well against this Rangers team that ranks 25th in MLB in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created against right-handed pitchers. Texas has lost 5 of their last 6 games following a win — and they have lost 4 of their last 5 games after not allowing more than four runs in their last game. The Rangers have lost 29 of their 49 games on the road this season — and they have lost 7 of their 10 games on the road against fellow AL West rivals. They have lost 14 of their last 21 road games against teams with a winning record. Furthermore, they have lost 19 of their last 28 road games when priced as a money-line underdog up to +150 — and they have lost 11 of their last 14 games as a dog priced in the +125 to +175 range. They counter with Leiter who has a 4-6 record along with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP in 15 starts. The sabermetrics call for regression even from those meager numbers. Both his SIERA and xFIP project an ERA of 4.71 and 4.70 moving forward. His xERA sits at 5.02. Additionally, he has been more effective at home where he has a 4.08 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP in seven starts — but in his seven starts on the road, he has a 4.58 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. Texas has lost 6 of their 7 games on the road as an underdog when Leiter is their starting pitcher (all priced no higher than +150).

FINAL TAKE: The Astros rank eighth in MLB since May 1st in weighted On-Base Average and weighted Runs Created — and they rank ninth in both those categories since June 1st. 25* MLB American League West Game of the Month with the money-line on the money-line on the Houston Astros (918) versus the Texas Rangers (917) listing both starting pitchers Lance McCullers Jr. and Jack Leiter. Best of luck for us — Frank.