Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-12-20 | USC v. UCLA +3.5 | Top | 43-38 | Loss | -118 | 102 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 9* on UCLA Southern Cal looked especially good on Sunday (we had them!) as a big passing day from QB Slovis (5 TD passes!) allowed them to overwhelm Washington State 38-13. A win this week, against a UCLA team they’ve now been favored against 18 of the last 19 seasons, sends the Trojans through to the Pac 12 Championship. But this game is a lot more tricky than it seems. USC is playing on short rest. UCLA is 3-2 with both losses occurring on the road in one-possession games. The Bruins are 4-0 ATS the last four games and the only straight up loss they’ve suffered during that time was by three at Oregon, a game which they outgained the opponent only to be undone by four turnovers. The Bruins come into Saturday as winners of two in a row, having beaten Arizona and Arizona State. USC could not run the ball last week, gaining just 5 yards on the ground, and we don’t expect them to have much success in that department this week either. Home team is 12-5 ATS the last 17 meetings and USC is just 1-5-1 ATS its last seven as a road favorite. Play on UCLA AAA | |||||||
12-12-20 | Houston v. Memphis +4.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 98 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MEMPHIS The start time for this game was bumped back a few hours, but we assure you things will be worth the wait as Memphis looks to upset Houston. Memphis getting points at the Liberty Bowl is not something you’ll see very often. There’s a reason for that. They’ve won 14 straight home games, a win streak that stretches back to October 2018. The Tigers last home loss was by one point to a UCF team that finished the regular season 12-0. While not as good as they were last season, Memphis is still 5-0 at home where they are averaging 43.9 points and giving up only 29.8. They beat UCF here earlier this season. They’ve defeated Houston four years in a row, scoring at least 42 points in all four wins. Houston has never really been able to get on track in 2020 due to COVID-19 and contact tracing. They’ve played only six games with the most recent being over a month ago. This is a tough ask to lay points on the road against a team that’s been so dominant on its home field. The Cougars are 4-10 ATS as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points, losing eight of those games outright. They are also 0-3 SU and ATS the L3 times playing with 2 or more weeks rest. Play on MEMPHIS AAA | |||||||
12-12-20 | Coastal Carolina -12.5 v. Troy | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA For Coastal Carolina, the plan for last week was always to “make a statement.” At first they thought it would be at the expense of Liberty, a fellow non-P5 school with an excellent record. But when Liberty had to bail due to COVID, undefeated BYU stepped up and took their place. Few gave the Chanticleers a chance on such short notice (they were 10.5-point underdogs), but all they ended up doing was pull off the biggest win in school history, defeating BYU 22-17. Now 10-0, Coastal Carolina looks to finish the regular season undefeated by winning at Troy. The Sun Belt Championship Game (vs. Louisiana) awaits the Chanticleers next weekend. But don’t expect any kind of “look ahead” given that CC is looking to stay undefeated. Troy, who may be without their starting QB, simply doesn’t score enough to keep pace with a team like the Chanticleers. Before shutting out South Alabama 29-0 last week, the Trojans had scored just 13, 17 and 10 points their previous three games, all losses. Coastal Carolina is winning by an average of almost three touchdowns per game this season. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
12-12-20 | Florida v. Florida State -2.5 | Top | 71-83 | Win | 100 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE It’s Florida and Florida State starting your Saturday in College Basketball. The two Sunshine State rivals have combined to go 5-0 thus far. Florida (3-0) has not been seriously tested while FSU did just defeat Indiana 69-67 here in Tallahassee, as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge. The Seminoles won that game despite poor shooting, but their defense stepped up to hold IU to 36% from the field. In Florida’s last game, their opponent shot just 19.6%! But that was Stetson, not Florida State, who comes in as the #20 ranked team in the country. The ‘Noles are looking for a 7th straight win over the Gators. The previous six have been by an average of 10 points. So we’ll gladly lay the short number in this one. FSU does a great job on the glass, collecting 18 offensive rebounds per game and they are 6th in the country in offensive rebound percentage. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA | |||||||
12-11-20 | Nevada v. San Jose State -2.5 | Top | 20-30 | Win | 100 | 80 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN JOSE STATE The number of unbeaten teams across College Football has dwindled down to nine with five of those teams having played five or less games. San Jose State is one of the big surprises on that list. Last week the Spartans were supposed to host Hawaii but were instead forced to head out to Honolulu. They won anyway, 35-24, to improve to 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS. Once again they’ve “lost” a home game this week as they’ll face Nevada in Las Vegas (at least it’s not Reno) at Sam Boyd Stadium. Still we expect this nice story to continue with SJSU picking up another victory. Nevada was lucky to defeat Fresno State 37-26 last week as the defense gave up almost 600 yards! Turnovers really bailed them out, but that’s not a reliable blueprint for success. San Jose State has a pretty good defense and the team is 14-5 ATS its last 19 Mountain West games. Play on SAN JOSE STATE AAA | |||||||
12-11-20 | Georgia Southern v. Davidson -14.5 | Top | 45-77 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DAVIDSON We don’t envision Davidson having much trouble in this non-conference home game. The Wildcats have actually owned Georgia Southern through the years, posting an 18-7 ATS head to head mark, which includes 9-2 at home. Georgia Southern comes into Friday still sporting an unblemished won-loss record (3-0), but they haven’t played anybody of note and almost lost to USC Upstate last week. Davidson is 2-2 but those two losses were by a combined three points and on a neutral court to Texas and Providence. The Wildcats beat UNLV in their last game and have had more than a week off to prepare for this first home game in nearly three weeks. That USC Upstate team that Georgia Southern barely beat is 0-4. Yet they led the Eagles by as many as nine points in the second half. The game was decided on a three-point play in the final second. Lay the points with confidence in this one. Play on DAVIDSON AAA | |||||||
12-11-20 | St. John's v. Seton Hall -5.5 | Top | 68-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SETON HALL Big East play commences Friday with Seton Hall hosting St. John’s. The hosts are 3-3 on the year and coming off an easy 33-point win against Wagner. They lost by 1 at Louisville in the first game of the season. Both home games have been blowouts as they also beat Iona by 22. St. John’s is a more difficult opponent compared to Wagner and Iona, however the Red Storm seem to be getting a bit too much respect from the oddsmakers and bettors for this conference road game. The Red Storm could barely beat Rider at home three days ago (won by only three) and have two other victories so far by four points or less. So while 5-1, the Johnnies could easily have a worse record right now. Seton Hall has dominated this Big East rivalry when hosting, going 14-2 SU and 13-3 ATS. They swept the season series last year, which included a 16-point win at home. They’ve won 8 of 10 overall against St. John’s and played a harder non-conference schedule. St. John’s was only 5-13 in Big East play last season. Play on SETON HALL AAA | |||||||
12-10-20 | Long Beach State v. San Francisco -16 | Top | 62-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN FRANCISCO With the NCAA Tournament being cancelled in March, one of the teams you felt for the most was San Francisco. The Dons had a breakout season in 2019-20, going 22-12 and there was a decent shot they were going to get an at-large bid. Keep in mind this program has been to the Big Dance just ONE time since 1982 and that was in 1998. This year, the Dons already have two losses, one of them a real “head-scratcher” to UMass-Lowell in the first game of the season. But they’ve also shown what they are capable of by beating then #4 Virginia on a neutral floor. The Dons have had a few extra days off to prepare here as Sunday’s game vs. Nevada was cancelled because of COVID. We ran with Long Beach State on Sunday and they covered against Seattle, but that was a much weaker opponent. The 49ers have really struggled shooting the ball in their first two games and were blown out by another WCC team (Loyola Marymount) in their first game (lost by 24). San Francisco is a better team than Loyola Marymount. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA | |||||||
12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams -5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA RAMS As we learned (the hard way) on Sunday, this Rams team is pretty good. They went into Arizona and beat the Cardinals 38-28. But really it wasn’t even that close as the Rams put up 463 total yards while allowing just 232. In terms of outgaining opponents on a per play basis, Los Angeles is one of the best teams in the league. They are now 8-4, tied with Seattle atop the NFC West standings. We like them to handle their business here against the Patriots. The Rams’ defense has allowed an average of just 15.0 points in five home games. No team has been stingier at home this season. While New England is off a 45-0 win against the Chargers, that point total was greatly aided by two special teams touchdowns. The Patriots offense is averaging only 235 yards the last two weeks despite winning both games. You may remember that the Rams beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl back in 2002. Well, they have not beaten them since, losing five straight times! That streak is put to bed here as the home team shows off its superiority Thursday night. Play on LA RAMS AAA | |||||||
12-10-20 | Pittsburgh -6.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 54 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PITT Pittsburgh (5-5) looks to wrap up the regular season with an above-.500 record as they play at Georgia Tech Thursday night. This should be a big offensive night for the Panthers as QB Kenny Pickett is back in the fold and will be facing a defense that’s giving up an ugly 42.6 points at home this year. With Pickett in the starting lineup, the Panthers are 5-3 this season. One of those losses was to Clemson two weeks ago. The other two were by a combined two points. So far Pickett has thrown for more than 2200 yards with 12 TD passes. Half of his interceptions came against Clemson. He’s completing 62% of his passes. Georgia Tech, who will wrap up its season next week in Miami, is a pretty lousy 3-6 after losing by 10 at NC State Saturday. The Yellow Jackets have been remarkably inconsistent in 2020 and there’s no reason to believe they’ll “show up” here. The offense has a horrible turnover problem and it should be “tough sledding” against a Pitt defense that’s allowing only 2.8 yards/rush and leads the country in sacks. As a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, Pitt is 6-3 SU and ATS its L9. As an underdog of 3.5 to 10 pts, Ga Tech is 1-7 SU and ATS L8. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA | |||||||
12-09-20 | SE Missouri State v. Lipscomb -6.5 | Top | 74-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIPSCOMB Lipscomb is looking to snap a four-game losing skid on Wednesday as it hosts SE Missouri State. In an interesting twist, these teams just played Monday. SE Missouri State won 82-77 as a 4-point home underdog despite Lipscomb shooting an impressive 55% from the field. One might think the Bisons could be in some trouble here given how hard it is to duplicate that kind of shooting. But we don’t see them taking 11 fewer shots than SE Missouri State again. This is Lipscomb’s first home game so a 1-4 start really isn’t that concerning. Two of the losses were close and the other two were at Cincinnati and Arkansas. It’s tough to beat the same opponent twice in a row and it’s not as if SE Missouri State is a good team. This will be the 4th straight game they’re underdogs and we see some value here as Lipscomb went off as the favorite, on the road, in that first meeting. Expect a double digit win by the home team Wednesday. Play on LIPSCOMB AAA | |||||||
12-09-20 | Chattanooga v. Bellarmine +2.5 | Top | 77-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BELLARMINE Don’t feel bad if you’ve never heard of Bellarmine. The University, located in Louisville, KY, is new to Division I this season. They just picked up their first ever DI victory two days ago, beating Howard 84-63. This will be their first ever home game as a DI school, so it’s a pretty big deal (even without fans present). They host Chattanooga, who has opened 4-0. Besides Howard, the Knights’ only other game thus far was against Duke and they were actually competitive in the first half of that game. Despite being unbeaten, Chattanooga is in a bit of a tough situation here playing its second road game in three days. They won at Middle Tennessee Monday 80-70 as two-point pups. That victory seems to have influenced this line greatly, but we see value on what should be a fired up Bellarmine team. Play on BELLARMINE AAA | |||||||
12-08-20 | Illinois +4 v. Duke | Top | 83-68 | Win | 100 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ILLINOIS #6 Illinois takes on #10 Duke as part of the Big 10 vs. ACC Challenge on Tuesday. This is also one of two matchups of Top 10 opponents on tonight’s card (Creighton-Kansas). The Illini will be looking to bounce back from an ugly 89-62 defeat they suffered at the hands of #2 Baylor last week. Duke also knows what it’s like to taste defeat as they fell last Tuesday to Michigan State. That game was played in Cameron and while the Blue Devils have since bounced back (76-54 win over Bellarmine), that win really proves nothing. Duke is 0-3 ATS and seemingly overrated at #10 in the polls. A second home loss to a top 10 Big 10 opponent is certainly not out of the realm of possibility here as Illinois is 4-1 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points. We like what we saw from the Illini in the first few games and believe them to be a legit Top 10 team. We don’t feel the same about Duke right now as they’ve used eight different players in the starting five so far and had just two double digit scorers in the last game. They’re young. Play on ILLINOIS AAA | |||||||
12-08-20 | Morgan State v. Iona -8 | Top | 83-72 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IONA Iona and Morgan State are both 1-1 having lost their respective openers and then coming back to win the second time out. But while the records are the same, the paths were very different. Iona has played Seton Hall and Hofstra, both on the road. Morgan State has faced Mt. St. Marys and Lincoln PA, both at home. Before you go writing off Hofstra as a strong opponent, Iona was an 8.5-point underdog against them. By the way, the Gaels are now being coached by Rick Pitino. Now he’s favored for the first time in almost three years. Given that Morgan State just allowed 94 to Lincoln PA after scoring only 55 vs. MSM, this should be an easy one for Pitino’s team. Iona leads all MAAC teams, scoring 73 points/game. They have three players that account for 67 percent of the scoring. Isaiah Ross is their best player as he’s shooting 52% from three and 99% from the free throw line. Iona is 4-0 all-time vs. Morgan State and should take advantage of a Bears team that is 0 for its last 5 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest. Play on IONA AAA | |||||||
12-07-20 | Fairfield v. Hartford -3.5 | Top | 54-67 | Win | 100 | 7 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HARTFORD After starting 0-2 (losses to UConn and Villanova), Hartford has started to gain some momentum with back to back wins. One of those was against Fairfield, who they’ll play again tonight. Fairfield is 0-3 and while they’ve been “in” the last two games (lost 66-61 to Hartford), it’s tough to imagine the Stags winning on the road tonight after the lost to Hartford at home. Neither team shot well in the first meeting, although Fairfield did make 7 of its 18 three-point attempts while Hartford was just 8 of 28. We don’t see them shooting that much better from distance now that they’re the road team nor do we believe they’ll hold a +9 edge in free throw attempts like they enjoyed last week. Really, the fact Fairfield couldn’t beat this Hartford team at home is a bad sign. The Stags have lost 45 of their last 66 games overall including 8-23 on the road. Play on HARTFORD AAA | |||||||
12-06-20 | Broncos v. Chiefs -13.5 | Top | 16-22 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 19 m | Show |
Ths is a 9* on KC Kansas City has won three straight close games. They beat Carolina by 2, Las Vegas by 4 and Tampa Bay by 3. But really the only game they were in danger of losing was the one in Vegas. They never trailed in Tampa last week and failed to cover only because of a garbage time TD. We see the Chiefs having no problems beating a TERRIBLE Denver team this week. The Broncos infamously had “no QB” last week vs. the Saints and that went as well you’d expect. They lost 31-3 at home. Just to illustrate how far apart these two AFC West sides are - Kansas City has been favored in 10 of 11 games this year while Denver has been an underdog in all 11. The Chiefs have also beaten the Broncos 10 straight times including 43-16 earlier in the year. That was the third straight win by at least 20 in this division rivalry. KC is 8-1-1 ATS in those 10 meetings. It really doesn’t matter who plays QB for Denver this week, they simply are incapable of scoring enough to stay within the spread against the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes vs. Drew Lock is a major mismatch in favor of the home team. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA | |||||||
12-06-20 | Washington State v. USC -11 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
analysis to follow | |||||||
12-06-20 | Seattle University v. Long Beach State -4.5 | Top | 75-80 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LBSU Long Beach State’s season didn’t get off to a good start as they lost by 24 at Loyola Marymount on Friday. But the 49ers have what looks to be their easiest game of the non-conference slate here on Sunday as they host a Seattle team that’s coming off two straight double digit losses, the more recent coming by 26 against UCLA. Coach Dan Monson has been known for challenging his team with tough non-conference schedules ever since he arrived here in Long Beach back in 2007. The 49ers didn’t “show up” for the season opener, but they will for what is their lone home game between now and the 1st of the year. This is a shockingly low spread in our eyes, but we’ll take it as LBSU is 5-0 (straight up) the past three seasons as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points. They’ve won over two-thirds of the time in that role. Seattle is shooting below 30% from three-point range so far. LBSU has revenge for an ugly 22-point loss up the coast from last season. Play on LONG BEACH STATE AAA | |||||||
12-06-20 | Rams v. Cardinals +3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -115 | 94 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA Arizona is 6-5. But if not for a Hail Mary against Buffalo three weeks ago, they’d be below .500 and on a four-game losing streak entering this week. The Cardinals have struggled when favored this season, going just 2-5 ATS as chalk. So we were quite pleased at the early line movement for this NFC West showdown with the Rams. This is the first of two meetings between these teams. The Rams are 7-4, but they too suffered an upset loss last week - 23-20 to San Francisco. The Rams defense hasn’t been as good on the road (23.3 PPG allowed vs. 15.0 at home), which is good news for Kyler Murray and the Arizona offense. Back to the spread, the Cardinals are 12-6-1 ATS as an underdog for coach Kingsbury. We look for Arizona to snap its four-game ATS losing streak this week and probably its six-game (straight up) losing streak to the Rams. We don’t think that LA should be favored in this game. Play on ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
12-06-20 | Browns v. Titans -5.5 | Top | 41-35 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TENNESSEE Cleveland is an exceptionally weak 8-3 team. Let’s start with the fact they’ve given up more points than they’ve scored. Not even 4-7 Atlanta can say that! What the Browns have been doing is winning the games “they should” (i.e. when favored) and usually close. They are 7-1 SU as favorites in 2020. However their last four wins, which were against Jacksonville, Houston, Philadelphia and Cincinnati (all teams with losing records) have come by a combined 13 points (none by more than five points). The Browns are not favored this week against a fellow 8-3 team in Tennessee. They lost by 32 at Baltimore and 31 at Pittsburgh. That’s something that jumps out to us, as the Titans played both teams tough, even defeating the Ravens (with Lamar Jackson) on the road. The Titans looked GREAT last week in putting up 45 points on a short-handed Colts defense. Ryan Tannehill has proven himself to be a very good NFL QB (certainly better than Baker Mayfield) and a key to his success is not turning the ball over. Tennessee has the fewest number of giveaways in the league right now. They’ll win comfortably on Sunday. Play on TENNESSEE AAA | |||||||
12-06-20 | Bengals +11.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 7-19 | Loss | -103 | 91 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati’s straight up record is just 2-8-1. But this is a team that competes. They are 7-4 ATS with two of the non-covers coming vs. league heavyweights Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Just look at what they did last week. Playing for the first time without Joe Burrow (OFY), they were able to stay within the 6.5-point spread against the Giants, losing only 19-17. Now it took a special teams touchdown to do that, but give credit to a defense that has allowed 20 points or fewer in three of its last four games. We laid the points with Miami last week but did so against a completely inept (and winless) Jets team. This week’s spread is higher and we just don’t see the Dolphins as a team you’d want to lay double digits with. It’s only the fifth time Miami has been favored all season. Other than against the Jets, they have not had to lay more than four to any opponent. This is the first game where they’ve had to lay 10 or more in over a decade! We don’t know who the starting QB will be for the Dolphins, but will take the points anyway in what figures to be another close loss for Cincinnati. Play on CINCINNATI AAA | |||||||
12-05-20 | Boston College v. Virginia -6 | Top | 32-43 | Win | 100 | 99 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 9* on VIRGINIA We think it's fair to say that both Boston College and Virginia have surpassed expectations in 2020. Boston College is 6-4, pulling some upsets along the way. First year coach Jeff Hafley has done a good job as has his QB Phil Jurkovec. But Jurkovec and top rusher David Bailey suffered injuries in last week’s win over Louisville. While both are listed atop their respective depth charts, the injuries are something worth monitoring. Virginia is going to be highly motivated for this game as they have never beaten BC in six all-time matchups. Getting back to this season, the Cavaliers have covered four straight, winning the last three straight up and should be fresh off a bye week. They were supposed to have faced Florida State last week, but that didn’t happen. Before that they face Abilene Christian so it’s been several weeks since they’ve been tested. The fact the Cavs beat North Carolina here at home carries a lot of weight with us as does their 16-2 SU record in the last 18 home games (12-5-1 ATS). When playing with at least two weeks rest, Virginia is 5-0 ATS the past three seasons. Play on VIRGINIA AAA | |||||||
12-05-20 | Penn State v. Rutgers +11.5 | Top | 23-7 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on RUTGERS Penn State finally broke into the win column as it defeated another struggling “blue blood” (Michigan) 27-17 on the road. That was also the first time all season that the Nittany Lions covered the spread. While not as bad as their record indicates, last week’s performance didn’t say to us that PSU was anywhere close to deserving of its Top 15 preseason ranking. It’s back to laying double digits this week, on the road, against a Rutgers team that’s been competitive in 2020. The Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS as underdogs so far and just pulled their second upset of the season, beating Purdue 37-30 last week in West Lafayette. Before that, Rutgers had suffered close losses to Michigan (49-43) and Illinois (23-20), the former being a multi-overtime affair. So we don’t see the Scarlet Knights getting blown out at home here. After getting the proverbial “monkey off their back” last week, there’s going to be a tendency for Penn State to “ease up” this week. They’ve covered just one of the last five times they’ve been a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. You’d have to go back to September 2018 to find the last time the Nittany Lions covered the spread in two straight games. Play on RUTGERS AAA | |||||||
12-05-20 | Oklahoma State -2.5 v. TCU | Top | 22-29 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OK State Oklahoma State is set to meet TCU this week as the Cowboys look to further distance themselves from the beating they took from rival Oklahoma in Bedlam two weeks ago. Minus their top two running backs, the Pokes still were able to put up 50 points and over 500 yards last week in a win over Texas Tech. They didn’t cover, but that’s because they were laying double digits and gave up two late touchdowns to the Red Raiders to make it a 50-44 final. TCU, who is just 5-11 ATS its last 16 home games, doesn’t have the kind of firepower to keep pace here. Though they did score 59 last week, that was against Kansas, so it really “doesn’t count.” They also scored three non-offensive touchdowns in that contest. Oklahoma State is certainly better than the last three teams TCU has beaten and the Cowboys have won 10 of their last 12 games when the line is a field goal or less either way. The Horned Frogs have been hit hard by COVID and were missing upwards of 30 players last week. That’s not good. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA | |||||||
12-05-20 | Rice v. Marshall -23 | Top | 20-0 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MARSHALL Marshall is still undefeated (7-0) and ranked 21st in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. They’re not getting much respect nationwide (they are 15th in both AP & Coaches Polls), but they could probably care less. The Thundering Herd are winning by an average of 27.3 points/game and have covered all but two times. One of those two ATS losses was as a 44-point favorite vs. UMass, a game they won 51-10. The other was a 20-9 win over an FAU team that has a really good defense. Rice does not have a good defense nor are they getting 44 points this week in Huntington. This will be just game #4 for the Owls, whose season did not get underway until October 24th. They played just one game in November and lost 27-17 to North Texas. The three teams Rice has played - Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss and North Texas - are all terrible and in no way prepares them for this huge step up in class. Marshall has been off for 21 days and looking to beat up on somebody. Rice will oblige. Play on MARSHALL AAA | |||||||
12-04-20 | North Dakota v. Minnesota -21.5 | Top | 67-76 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA Big time mismatch here as Minnesota is 3-0 while North Dakota State is 0-2. You might be thinking that the large point spread could be of “assistance” to the Fighting Hawks on Friday, but you’d be wrong as they are 0-6 ATS their past six chances as a road underdog of at least 12.5 points. Not only did ND suffer a double digit loss in the season opener at Miami (OH), they lost to a team named Dixie State just two days ago. That’s a brand new team to Division I and the fact ND was just a three-point favorite to begin with speaks volumes about the state of this program. Meanwhile, Minnesota is averaging 84.7 points in three games. They just beat Loyola Marymount twice. While they didn’t cover the second time, they held LMU below 25% shooting from three-point range. That coupled with an explosive offense should result in an easy win Friday. The Gophers got called for a lot of fouls in their last game, which is why that game stayed so close. Don’t see them getting whistled as much tonight at home and against a really bad team, that means a blowout is coming. Play on MINNESOTA AAA | |||||||
12-03-20 | Air Force v. Utah State +10.5 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH STATE Utah State is now 1-4 on the season as they recorded their first win of the season last Thursday, beating New Mexico by a score of 41-24. The Aggies get another home game this week, this time against an Air Force team that was supposed to play last Thursday as well, but didn’t. Their game vs. Colorado State was one of many games cancelled/postponed because of COVID-19. That means the Falcons played just one game in November. They made it count with a 28-0 shutout of the same New Mexico team that Utah State just defeated. Now that both Mountain West sides have proven they can dominate a winless team, let’s see what they can do against one another. The spread just seems too high for an Air Force team playing on the road with just four games under its belt. While it’s true that Utah State has played only five games, they haven’t had much interruption since their season began. For Air Force, this is only the second game in five weeks. Historically, they haven’t been good as road favorites (2-4 ATS L6) or on Thursdays (7-13 SU/ATS). Last week’s win should give Utah State some confidence that they can keep this one close. Play on UTAH STATE AAA | |||||||
12-03-20 | Montana v. Southern Utah +1 | Top | 63-64 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH Perhaps you’re watching “Big Sky” (on ABC) but we expect no real surprises here in the conference that bears that show’s namesake. Southern Utah should be able to defeat Montana at home as the Golden Grizzlies appear to be a bit shorthanded for their conference opener and did not look good against USC on Saturday, which is the only game that they have played. Montana was held to 62 points on 33.9% shooting and then got torched on the defensive end, allowing USC to shoot 50%. They really struggled to defend the three-point line in that game. Look for that to be a problem here against a Southern Utah outfit that has shot the lights out in two games, making almost 42% of their 3PA. The Thunderbirds have scored 83 and 95 points in their two games. These Big Sky rivals played two close games last season with the road team winning both times. But Southern Utah has won 21 of its past 30 at home and seems like a good value tonight. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH AAA | |||||||
12-03-20 | VMI v. Virginia Tech -21.5 | Top | 57-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VA TECH Virginia Tech should not encounter much resistance tonight when it goes up against VMI, a team that traditionally gives up a lot of points. In their lone game thus far against meaningful competition, the Keydets gave up 86 points to Penn State. They won their other two contests, but those were against St. Andrews and Longwood. Virginia Tech is a legit Top 25 team right now (ranked #16) that has already beaten Villanova 81-73 as a nine-point underdog. The Hokies have also beaten VMI each of the past two seasons, both times by double digits. The Hokies followed their big upset of Villanova with a 75-68 win over South Florida on Sunday and haven’t played since, so they should be well rested. VMI played two nights ago, which won’t do them any favors tonight. That they lost by 30 to Penn State is particularly instructive when handicapping this matchup. This is a team predicted to finish 9th in the 10-team Southern Conference. The Hokies are shooting almost 50% through three games and should score at will in this one. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA | |||||||
12-02-20 | North Florida v. Florida State -25.5 | Top | 58-86 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE Another game that won’t be close on Wednesday’s NCAAB slate is when Florida State hosts North Florida. The 22nd ranked Seminoles will be opening their season tonight while North Florida is already 0-3. All three losses for the Ospreys have been blowouts with them going down to Eastern Kentucky by 13, NC State by 35 and Miami by 18. That middle result is what sticks out to us. Florida State is better than all three teams North Florida has faced so far and thus this figures to turn into another long night. While the ‘Noles did lose a couple of lottery picks to the NBA, they did bring in Scottie Barnes, the highest rated recruit ever to come to Tallahassee. FSU typically defends very well and has scored 98 and 95 points the last two years on North Florida. This is precisely the kind of opponent you want to open your season against. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA | |||||||
12-02-20 | Morehead State v. Ohio State -24 | Top | 44-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO STATE We expect Ohio State to have little difficulty here blowing out Morehead State. The 23rd ranked Buckeyes are 2-0 and won both games by double digits. Admittedly, it was just a 10-point win over UMass-Lowell where they trailed in the second half. But they’d previously beaten Illinois State by 27 in the season opener. The closer than expected call against Mass-Lowell seems to have influenced this line and we say it’s time to take advantage. While Morehead State is off an upset win against Arkansas State, 69-61 as a three point home underdog, they’d previously lost to Kentucky by 36 and Richmond by 18. That’s the caliber of competition they are up against here. In those two defeats, the Eagles allowed the opponents to shoot almost 56% overall while averaging 81.5 points. Ohio State scored 94 in the season opener, so it should be another big offensive night for them in Columbus. Play on OHIO STATE AAA | |||||||
12-02-20 | Ravens +10.5 v. Steelers | Top | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
THIS IS AN 8* ON BALTIMORE All hell has broken loose in Baltimore as the Ravens' COVID-19 outbreak began on Monday. All told, 12 players have been affected. The most notable being QB Lamar Jackson. This game has been moved twice, from Thursday to Sunday and then Sunday to Tuesday. This seemingly could not have come at a worse time for the Ravens as the team has dropped three of its last four games including back to back losses for the first time since early last season. Now they face the 10-0 Steelers who won 28-24 in Baltimore earlier this month. But we’re looking at this as a “buy low” situation on the Ravens. They led a good Tennessee team 21-10 in the third quarter last week before losing in overtime. The Ravens are 4-0 ATS the last four times they’ve been an underdog. The underdog is 19-7-3 ATS the past 29 meetings between Baltimore and Pittsburgh and the road team has covered six of the last eight. This is the first time in a long while that the public seems “down” on the Ravens. An interesting tidbit on the Steelers is that only three teams have punted more times: the Jets, Bears & Eagles. So it’s been a real “boom or bust” for Big Ben and that group. Other than the 4-point win over Baltimore and a 3-point win over Tennessee, Pittsburgh has faced only one other team with a winning record (Cleveland). They struggled to beat Dallas a couple weeks ago. Remember that all this has been just as disruptive to them. Take the points. Play on BALTIMORE AAA | |||||||
12-01-20 | Valparaiso v. Illinois-Chicago +2 | Top | 50-66 | Win | 100 | 19 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UIC Former Horizon League enemies meeting here. Even though Valparaiso is now in the Missouri Valley Conference, there should still be a sense of “rivalry” when they meet Illinois-Chicago on Tuesday, particularly on the UIC side of things. UIC has lost 10 straight times to Valpo. Though it’s a whole new group of players, they should come out highly motivated to end that win streak. The Flames are 2-0 thus far, both close wins. They beat Northern Illinois by four and Central Michigan by two, so it’s too bad they aren’t in the MAC! Valpo lost its only game, 77-71 at Vanderbilt, as they blew a five-point lead with just under six minutes to go. UIC did lead Central Michigan by double digits at halftime, so they were in control throughout, even if the final score doesn’t really indicate that. Both teams have done a good job defensively so far, but winning on the road might be too great of an ask for a young Valpo team right now. They may also be looking forward to a date with Purdue later this week. UIC has won 24 of its last 35 home games while Valpo has lost 19 of its last 28 away from home. Play on UIC AAA | |||||||
12-01-20 | Nebraska-Omaha v. Creighton -19 | Top | 67-94 | Win | 100 | 17 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CREIGHTON City pride is at stake here with Omaha taking on Creighton. Omaha comes in as the decided underdog - and for good reason. The Mavericks are 1-2 so far this year and have failed to cover seven straight times against teams with winning records. Creighton is off a win, 69-58 over North Dakota State, which is their only game played to date. Nebraska-Omaha’s only win to this point was by a single point, 60-59 over Middle Tennessee. That came on the heels of a six-point loss to Austin Peay and right before a 12-point loss to Abilene Christian. Despite the questionable status of Creighton’s Denzel Mahoney (COVID-19), we think the Bluejays win this one going away as they are the #9 ranked team in the country right now. Preseason Big East Player of the Year Marcus Zegarowski shot just 2 of 11 against North Dakota State. He should have a much better shooting night here. Omaha has made just 18.2% of its three-point attempts thus far, which is horrendous. Play on CREIGHTON AAA | |||||||
11-30-20 | Seahawks -5.5 v. Eagles | Top | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE The Seahawks and Eagles are very much “birds of a different feather” as the former comes with a 7-3 mark on the season while the latter is 3-6-1. But true to the insanity that is 2020, both could end up being division champs when all is said and done! That said, Seattle is so much better and should easily be able to take advantage of a wounded (and struggling) Philly team tonight. The Eagles just found out they’ll be without Lane Johnson for the rest of the year, which is a major loss. It’s not as if they were playing all that well with their top offensive lineman on the field anyway. This is an offense that struggles to score and Wentz seems to have really regressed. Completion percentage and passer rating are both career lows right now while he leads the league with 18 turnovers. Seattle’s defense, which had been a sore spot for them, has recently improved thanks to the return of Jamal Adams and the arrival of Carlos Dunlap. They just held the Rams and Cardinals to a combined 44 points. One group having no problems is the Seattle offense, which averages 31.8 points/game. Not only is Russell Wilson 5-0 all-time vs. Philly, the Seahawks have covered every game. Wilson is 23-12-1 ATS in his career in primetime games. Play on SEATTLE AAA | |||||||
11-30-20 | Eastern Kentucky v. Xavier -15.5 | Top | 96-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on XAVIER Xavier opened its season with a convincing 101-49 win against Oakland. Since then, the Musketeers have had two close calls against Bradley and Toledo. They were able to win both - but only by a combined four points - and thus it was 0-2 ATS. Eastern Kentucky is off to a 2-0 start and has covered both of its games, but there’s a big difference from those first two opponents (N Florida, Charleston So) to the team they face today. The Colonels are just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been a road underdog of 12.5 or more points. Concerning for EKU is the fact they’ve shot 35% in both games so far. Xavier is allowing a 31.2 field goal percentage thus far, so it figures to be a very low-scoring game for the underdogs here. Xavier opponents are shooting less than 30% on 2-pt attempts, which ranks 4th in the country, and EKU is shooting just 16% from three-point range. Should be an easy one for the Musketeers. Play on XAVIER AAA | |||||||
11-30-20 | Chattanooga -6 v. Tennessee Tech | Top | 62-54 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHATTANOOGA We’ve got an in-state battle from the Volunteer State with Chattanooga opening its season proper against 0-1 Tennessee Tech. Tennessee Tech had little chance of winning their first game. They were big underdogs against Indiana and did even worse than expected, losing by 30. Chattanooga’s first game was a glorified exhibition as they defeated Lander College 99-63 a few days ago. The Mocs are 21-8 ATS on the road the previous two seasons so we believe the SoCon representation should perform well tonight. The last time these schools played, it was an 11-point home victory for Chattanooga. This was a 20-win team last season. They have eight guys back plus added some good-looking transfers. Tennessee Tech won only 9 games in 2019-20 and four of those came late in the year. Of the last 51 times that the Golden Eagles have been an underdog, they’ve won just nine times. So we will lay a short number. Play on CHATTANOOGA AAA | |||||||
11-29-20 | Bears v. Packers -8.5 | Top | 25-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY The Bears are one of several NFL teams this week really hurting at the QB position. Truth be told, it hasn’t mattered all season who they’ve had under center. Both Nick Foles and Mitch Trubisky have really stunk up the joint. Now Foles is hurt so Trubisky is being called back into duty this week. Trubisky has had his own injury issues as well. Really, it’s a minor miracle that Chicago is 5-5 entering this game. They have lost four straight while averaging less than 16 points/game. In case you needed to be reminded, Green Bay does not have any issues at quarterback. Aaron Rodgers, who has a 16-2 TD-INT ratio the last five weeks, has dominated the Bears throughout his career. He’s 19-5 against them. With the Packers 5-0 ATS off a loss under Matt LaFleur, expect them to get off to a fast start Sunday night. Play on GREEN BAY AAA | |||||||
11-29-20 | Saints -6 v. Broncos | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 45 h 16 m | Show |
Note: This play was released and written up prior to the announcement on Denver's QB situation. Play still stands. This is a 10* on NO Taysom Hill is 1-0 as a starter after leading the Saints to a 24-9 victory over Atlanta last week. The offense gained 378 total yards, which is right on the team’s season average with Drew Brees at quarterback. Now the Falcons defense is pretty bad. But the Saints defense is REALLY good. The last three games they’ve allowed just 25 points. We don’t see them giving up very many this week against a Denver offense that is averaging just 18.2 points/game at home. The Broncos still have yet to be favored in a game all year. Obviously they’re not going to be favored here, even though they are off a 20-13 upset over Miami last week. But the Saints aren’t the Dolphins. When Denver hosted Kansas City earlier in the year, they lost 43-16. That’s what we’re looking at here. Hill showed us last week he can be winning quarterback in this league as he completed 78% of his passes. But the real strength of the Saints right now is the defense. By the way, lots of injuries on the Denver defense. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA | |||||||
11-29-20 | Cardinals -1 v. Patriots | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -114 | 42 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA Arizona is 6-4 but off a 28-21 loss to Seattle. New England is also off a 7-point loss, 27-20 to Houston, but they are just 4-6. It is looking more and more likely that we are about to have an NFL Playoffs that doesn’t include the Patriots for just the second time since 2003. The sense of urgency for the Cardinals here is going to be greater due to the fact they have a much more realistic path to the playoffs. A loss here would not be good. An early start doesn’t seem to bother the Cards as they are 5-2 ATS in 1 PM ET games since Kliff Kingsbury took over. A key advantage for them this week is they’ve had a couple extra days to prepare as they played on Thursday last week. New England has covered the spread in just two of its previous seven games. Against the Jets was the only time in that stretch where they topped 23 points. Arizona averages 28.7 points/game and had hit 30 in each of the five games before facing Seattle. The Patriots allow 6.2 yards/play (30th) and 8.4 yards per pass play (last). Cardinals QB Kyler Murray will have a field day here. Play on ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
11-29-20 | Giants -6 v. Bengals | Top | 19-17 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the GIANTS The Giants should consider themselves quite fortunate. They play in the NFC East where no team has more than four wins. Now they get to face Cincinnati a week after Joe Burrow suffered a season-ending knee injury. The Bengals just aren’t going to do much offensively in this game with Brandon Allen or Ryan Finley at QB (Allen expected to start). Cincinnati has scored just 19 points its last two games and didn’t score at all after Burrow left last week. That was against a Washington team that the Giants have beaten twice in 2020. While the G-Men are just 1-7 SU in their other eight games, they are 7-3 ATS overall including 5-0 on the road. They’ve been one of the best teams to bet on this NFL season. Coming off a bye and facing a wounded opponent, we expect them to play their finest game of the season here. You could argue they played their best game two weeks ago when they beat Philadelphia 27-17. More bad news for the Bengals: Not only is Burrow out, their top two running backs are injured as well! Play on NY GIANTS AAA | |||||||
11-29-20 | Dolphins -6.5 v. Jets | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 42 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MIAMI Miami’s run ended last week with a disappointing loss in Denver. Before suffering the 20-13 loss, they’d won and covered five in a row. While Tua Tagovailoa is questionable to start here (because of a thumb injury), Ryan Fitzpatrick has certainly proven himself to be a capable starter in this league. The team is 3-2 this year with Fitzpatrick as the starter and the two losses were to New England and Seattle. No matter who ends up playing QB for the Dolphins this week, we like them to win big. That’s because they are facing the winless Jets. At 0-10, it’s only a matter of time before Adam Gase gets fired. New York is a total dumpster fire right now. Sam Darnold is set to return, but that hardly matters at this point. The Dolphins shut the Jets out 24-0 earlier this year in the last game Fitzpatrick started. While the Jets have stayed within eight points of three of their last four opponents, they won’t do so here. Miami has a really good defense that will keep the Jets under its YTD scoring average of 14.9 points/game. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
11-28-20 | Montana v. USC -11.5 | Top | 62-76 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on USC USC already has a game under its belt and it didn’t really go as well as expected. They were still victorious mind you, but needed overtime to defeat Cal Baptist by a score of 95-87. They didn’t even come close to covering the number, which was -18.5. But what that close call does for us here is provide some value. We certainly expected the Trojans to be favored by more against Montana, who has yet to play in 2020. What hurt USC Wednesday night was the fact Cal Baptist went 20 of 41 from three-point range. The Trojans were just 5 of 19 from distance. That kind of discrepancy shouldn’t exist again tonight. You’d expect USC to be the better three-point shooting team. Or maybe they don’t have to be considering they made 32 of 47 two-point attempts in that first game! Montana is just 3-12 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Grizzlies lost almost all of their offensive production from last season and are really going to struggle early on. Play on USC AAA | |||||||
11-28-20 | Auburn +24.5 v. Alabama | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 27 m | Show |
analysis soon | |||||||
11-28-20 | North Texas v. UTSA -2 | Top | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 9* on UTSA UTSA has gotten in a lot more games than North Texas. This will be the Roadrunners’ 11th game of the season. Entering this weekend, only Texas State has played more. North Texas has played only six games including just one over the last month. That one was played last week and was a 27-17 win over Rice. It was their second straight win after three straight losses. Besides Rice, they’ve beaten a very bad Middle Tennessee team and Houston Baptist, a FCS program. UTSA is 6-4 on the year and has won three of four. They are off a 23-20 win at Southern Miss and now return home where they’ve gone 4-1 SU. Another pertinent trend is that UTSA has won the last seven times it has been favored, four of those games coming this year. North Texas, who trailed 10-0 last week, has a poor defense. The Mean Green are giving up 520.5 yards/game. That is a LOT. They did a good job stopping the run against Rice last week, but UTSA has 521 yards rushing in its last two games. The North Texas secondary was also shredded for 327 yards last week. UTSA always gets it done as a favorite so we’ll happily lay this short number. Play on UTSA AAA | |||||||
11-28-20 | Maryland +12 v. Indiana | Top | 11-27 | Loss | -104 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MARYLAND Indiana is the only 5-0 ATS team in the country. But they are coming off their first loss of the year, in a high-profile situation, to #3 Ohio State. Considering they were almost three touchdown underdogs in Columbus, we’d say the Hoosiers played well in a 42-35 loss. Well, except for the run game, which produced -1 yard. The bottom line though is IU’s “bubble” was burst and this looks like a classic hangover spot against a Maryland team that already has two upset wins to its credit. The Terrapins have beaten Minnesota as a 17.5 point underdog and then Penn State as a 27.5 point underdog. So an outright win Saturday definitely isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Unlike Indiana, who is one week removed from a loss to Ohio State, Maryland has been off for two weeks. So the schedule really favors them here. The reason for having those last two weeks off - cancellations vs. Michigan State and Ohio State - should be obvious at this point (COVID). But even though he’s been forced to coach virtually these last two weeks, coach Locksley feels his team is ready. Indiana was down 28 last week and this is just the third time they’ve been favored in 2020. Play on MARYLAND AAA | |||||||
11-27-20 | Notre Dame -4.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is 8-0 and #2 in the initial College Football Playoff rankings. They’ve already beaten Clemson, so they are really in the driver’s seat right now. North Carolina is going to be the toughest remaining test before the ACC Championship Game, however we think the Tar Heels are getting too much respect in this Top 25 battle. While UNC can put up a ton of points (they average 43.1 per game), so can Notre Dame (37.6 PPG). The difference is the Tar Heels defense also gives up a ton. They are allowing over 30 points/game and the last time we saw them they gave up 53, not to mention almost 750 total yards, to Wake Forest. The Heels were behind by as much as three touchdowns in that game, which was at home. Considering how the Fighting Irish have put up at least 42 points in four of the last six games, Ian Book and the offense should have a big game Friday. Notre Dame’s defense is #1 in the ACC at stopping the run. North Carolina’s defense has allowed more than 200 yards rushing in three different games! Uh oh. Here’s the kicker(s): ND has won its last 10 games as a road favorite (6-3-1 ATS) plus they are 10-0 SU the L10 times they’ve been a favorite (home or away) of 3.5 to 10 points, also going 8-1-1 ATS. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA | |||||||
11-27-20 | Iowa State v. Texas +1.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas is the play here as the Lonnghorns face Iowa State in a ranked showdown. Although only 2-4-1 ATS, UT is 5-2 SU with one of those two losses coming to Oklahoma in overtime. Incredibly, three of the ‘Horns’ seven games have gone to OT. They have not played in three weeks due to a scheduled bye (last week) and an unscheduled bye two weeks ago (Kansas game postponed due to COVID). So they should be well rested and prepared for an Iowa State team that’s coming off a 45-0 win over Kansas State last weekend. The size of that victory has obviously influenced bettors' perception of the Cyclones, but before we go giving them too much credit, be aware that Kansas State has devolved into a total mess since losing QB Thompson for the season. They are also a team that’s been severely impacted, in a negative way, by COVID. We really like the fact that this line has “jumped the fence” and that Texas is now a slight home dog. That’s great value for a game where we projected them to be a field goal favorite. Iowa State is 2-5 ATS its last seven chances as a road favorite of three points or less. The Cyclones lost at home to Louisiana, never led at Oklahoma State and while they did beat Oklahoma, they trailed almost the entire game. Play on TEXAS AAA | |||||||
11-26-20 | Auburn -7.5 v. St. Joe's | Top | 96-91 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on AUBURN This game is in Fort Myers, very much on the “undercard” of Gonzaga-Kansas. Auburn went 25-6 a year ago. St. Joe’s was 6-26. Auburn is very much a program in “turmoil” right now. Not only did they lose their top six players from last season, but they are also a part of an ongoing FBI investigation. Still, we see no reason why we shouldn’t lay the points in this matchup. They are still a long and athletic team. St. Joe’s returns a lot more from last year, but that was a bad team (see record above). The Hawks are being picked to finish near the bottom of the Atlantic 10 again and aren’t going to be that improved in 2020-21. Because of the self-imposed postseason ban that was imposed earlier this week, we’re getting value on Auburn as bettors are seemingly willing to write this team off. That’s a mistake in our eyes. They are 7-1 ATS L8 neutral site games while St. Joseph’s is 1-3-1 ATS its last five. This number has come down much too far and Auburn is now a 10* play for us. Play on AUBURN AAA | |||||||
11-26-20 | Texans -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 41-25 | Win | 100 | 45 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Detroit was just putrid last week in a 20-0 loss to Carolina. The offense was held below 200 yards as it gained just 3.4 yards per play. They had only 10 first downs for the game! There has to be some real doubt about Matt Patricia’s future as the head coach. That’s going to have an effect on the team’s motivation down the stretch. The Lions are 13-28-1 SU since he took over. The Panthers team that shut them out on Sunday was without its starting QB Teddy Bridgewater and star RB Christian McCaffery. PJ Walker, making his first ever NFL start, threw for 258 yards against the Lions defense. Injuries and COVID-19 have left the Lions short-handed on both sides of the ball. So look for the Texans to take advantage in this early Thanksgiving Day battle. We cashed Houston in a 27-20 win over the Patriots on Sunday as they improved to 3-7 on the year. With the likes of Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt, the Texans certainly look more formidable than the Panthers team that just embarrassed the Lions. Watson threw for 344 yards against the Patriots, his 5th 300-plus yard game of the season, and has a 11-0 TD-INT ratio the last five weeks. The Lions’ pass defense, as we saw last week against a 1st time starter, is poor. They rank 25th in the league, giving up 258.4 yards/game. Watt and the Texans defense were solid last week in allowing just 86 yards rushing. The Lions are just 4-12 on Thanksgiving since 2004 with eight losses by 10 or more. They are also on a 1-4 SU/ATS run as home underdogs of three points or less. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
11-25-20 | Clemson -4 v. Mississippi State | Top | 53-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON When you think Clemson and Mississippi State, College FOOTBALL is probably what comes to mind. But these Power 5 schools will open the NCAAB season against each other on Wednesday. This is part of the Space Coast Challenge in Melbourne, FL. It replaces the cancelled Cancun Classic. Clemson is the more experienced side coming into the year, but it’s the arrival of highly touted freshman PJ Hall that has Tigers fans most excited. Hall was the #1 high school player in the state of South Carolina, so he was a huge “get” for the program. Though Miss State has put together three consecutive 20+ win seasons, they bring back just four players and one of them didn’t see significant minutes last season. Clemson actually allowed fewer points per game a year ago and has revenge for a loss two years ago to the Bulldogs on a neutral floor. Take Clemson to win. Play on CLEMSON AAA | |||||||
11-25-20 | St. Mary's +8 v. Memphis | Top | 56-73 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ST MARYS St. Mary’s and Memphis are two “mid-major” programs accustomed to success, but there’s a lot of new faces on both rosters to start the 2020-21 campaign. Memphis saw two of its standouts from last year get taken in the Top 20 picks of the NBA Draft last week. They return just four upperclassmen, none of them seniors. St. Mary’s also loses the bulk of its production (72% of scoring) from last year’s squad. But we’re more confident in the Gaels “figuring things out” in this first game in South Dakota, part of the Bad Boy Mowers Crossover Classic. It seems as if every year St. Mary’s wins more than 20 games and last year was no exception as they finished 26-8 and would have made the NCAA Tournament. Memphis has a player out because of COVID contact tracing and another transfer has yet to be ruled eligible. The Tigers are too young to trust laying this many points in the early going. Last year’s team had a losing record away from home and averaged just 64.5 points in those games. Play on ST. MARYS AAA | |||||||
11-25-20 | North Dakota v. Miami-OH -6 | Top | 67-81 | Win | 100 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH Miami Ohio opens its season with a visit from North Dakota and we see this being an easy cover for the RedHawks, who played well in Oxford a season ago. Especially on the defensive end where they limited opponents to 40.7% shooting. North Dakota could not claim the same sort of defensive prowess. The Fighting Hawks gave up 75.5 points/game last year and an even higher number on the road. The season ended in ugly fashion with an 89-53 defeat at the hands of North Dakota State in the Summit League Tournament. Never did the Fighting Hawks win more than two straight games during the 2019-20 campaign. They're not about to start this year with a win either. Both teams lost their star guard, but Miami returns four starters. Play on MIAMI OHIO AAA | |||||||
11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TB We’ve got a big game in the NFC Monday night with the 7-3 Bucs hosting the 6-3 Rams. Both teams had impressive wins last week. Tampa Bay pummeled poor Carolina 46-23 and finished with a substantial 544-187 edge in total yardage. Just as impressive was the Rams defense which held Seattle to only 16 points. When handicapping this matchup, it’s important to remember that the Bucs are 7-1 against everybody besides the Saints. That other loss was by a single point at Chicago and they probably should have won that game. The Rams are 4-0 against the horrible NFC East and 2-3 vs.everyone else. As impressive as beating Seattle was, that was a familiar foe at home. The Rams are 4-0 at home, but just 2-3 on the road (sense a pattern?). Left tackle Andre Whitworth got hurt last week and is going to miss the last six weeks. That’s a big loss for the Rams. Their offense has scored 24 points or less four of the last five games. Tom Brady and the Bucs have scored 38 or more in four of their last seven. Though 0-3 ATS in primetime this season, this one sets up well for Tampa Bay. The Rams defense forced three turnovers vs. Seattle. Don’t see that happening again. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
11-22-20 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 108 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS CITY This is a big revenge game for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Back in Week 5 they lost to the Raiders 40-32. Going by the pointspread (KC was -10 in that game), that’s the biggest upset of the NFL season so far. Chiefs coach Andy Reid clearly hasn’t forgotten, going so far as to point out the fact the Raiders took a “victory lap” (in their team bus) around the stadium following the upset. Though it has won and covered three in a row, Las Vegas is not well positioned for this rematch as 10 of the 11 players currently on the reserve/COVID-19 list are from the defensive side of the ball. Mahomes should have a big night as the Raiders are already giving up nearly 28 points/game at home. Reid is 14-7 ATS in his coaching career coming out of a bye week and Mahomes is 11-5 ATS in division games. So it’s a good spot for the favorite that has already covered 22 of the last 32 times they’ve been asked to lay points on the road. The Raiders, despite their 6-3 SU record, have been outgained this season. Over the past 20 seasons, if a double digit division dog wins the first meeting of the season outright, they are just 5-9 ATS the second time around. The Chiefs have won six games by at least nine points so far and their average margin of victory is 11.5 points/game. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA | |||||||
11-22-20 | Packers +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -120 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY Like New England-Houston, this Green Bay-Indianapolis line also flipped. The Packers were favored on the look ahead line, but not anymore after they struggled to beat Jacksonville last week while the Colts beat the Titans 34-17. We’ll take advantage of the value we’re now getting with the Packers, who are 4-1 ATS on the road this season. That’s the second best cover percentage in the league. Under Matt LaFleur the Pack have gone 5-1 ATS as a regular season road underdog and all five covers were also outright wins. Green Bay is also the first team in NFL history to average more than 30 points through nine games while turning it over five or fewer times. They haven’t failed to cover back to back games all season either. Aaron Rodgers has averaged almost 300 yards passing his last four games indoors and won them all. Play on GREEN BAY AAA | |||||||
11-22-20 | Patriots v. Texans +2.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 45 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON This is one of a few games that saw the line “flip” early in the week. The look ahead line had Houston favored by 2.5, but things quickly changed once New England upset Baltimore last Saturday night. Now the Patriots are favored, a role they are quite accustomed to, but this isn’t your normal Bill Belichick team. Remember that they struggled to beat the winless Jets on the road and are just 4-5 SU on the season. They are 0-3 ATS this season against teams that have a losing record. They are also 0-4 ATS as a favorite of three points or fewer, losing all four games outright. That one goes back to last season. Houston hasn’t been very good this season and is just 2-7 ATS. But they are now a really good value compared to what the look ahead line for this game was. DeShaun Watson has not thrown an interception since Week 5. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
11-21-20 | Liberty +5.5 v. NC State | Top | 14-15 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY Liberty can’t get any respect. The Flames are 7-0 and ranked 21st in the country. But they are still underdogs to a 5-3 North Carolina State team this week. This despite having already beaten another ACC team, Virginia Tech, as a 17-point dog two weeks ago. We took Liberty plus the points there and will do the same here. NC State is lucky to even be 5-3. They got outgained in road wins against Pitt and Virginia. Two weeks ago they faced Miami and while that ended up being a close loss (44-41), the Wolfpack gave up over 600 total yards and were outgained severely. Oh yeah, they also lost to Virginia Tech -- by 21! NC State’s defense has already allowed 40+ points four different times. Liberty averages 42.3 points/game and while some of that can be attributed to weaker competition, they did score 38 against Va Tech. They are 7-2 ATS L9 vs. the ACC. We just don’t see them as the underdog in this matchup. NC State has failed to cover five of the last seven times it has been favored. Play on LIBERTY AAA | |||||||
11-21-20 | Missouri -6 v. South Carolina | Top | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MISSOURI South Carolina has a lot of problems right now. They just fired Will Muschamp. That drastic move came after three straight losses, all of which saw the Gamecocks give up 48+ points. Last week’s 59-42 loss at Ole Miss was apparently the “straw that broke the camel’s back.” The defense gave up over 700 yards! So Missouri, who is playing for the first time in three weeks, has to like its chances this week. The Tigers last game didn’t go so well either. They were beaten 41-17 by Florida on Halloween. But facing a team that has given up 159 points in three games and just fired its coach is what we call a “get-well” game. There’s way too much turmoil going on at South Carolina for interim coach Mike Bobo to have a successful debut. Bobo was the offensive coordinator under Muschamp, so he’s not going to get this defense fixed anytime soon. Look for Mizzou to achieve a season-high in points and earn itself a comfortable cover this week. Play on MISSOURI AAA | |||||||
11-21-20 | Wisconsin -7.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WISCONSIN #10 Wisconsin being a road favorite here against #19 Northwestern says a lot. Since 2018, teams ranked in the top 15 have done very well (16-5 ATS) against opponents that are ranked, but outside the Top 15. That includes 5-0 ATS if the Top 15 team is on the road, which Wisconsin is here. That the Badgers are favored by this many points, despite being 1-5 ATS the L6 years vs. Northwestern with three outright losses, tells you what the oddsmakers think of this year’s matchup. Northwestern might be 4-0 in the Big 10 for the first time since ‘96, but three of their wins have been by single digits and they’ve been outgained twice. It’s a “phony” 4-0 record. Wisconsin just handed Michigan its worst home loss since 1935, 49-11, outgaining the Wolverines by nearly 250 total yards. We’re proud to say we had the Badgers last week in Ann Arbor. Despite being 2-0, the Badgers are still being underrated by the public, likely because they had two games called off because of COVID. But in the two games they have played they have put up 45 and 49 points, winning by 38 each time. We expect Wisconsin’s superiority to be on full display Saturday afternoon at Ryan Field as they once again roll to an easy win and cover. Play on WISCONSIN AAA | |||||||
11-21-20 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina -4 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina has been a favorite of ours for weeks now. They have treated us to multiple ATS wins, a 30-27 upset of Louisiana and 51-0 beatdown of Georgia State to name a couple. The Chanticleers deserve everyone’s respect as they are now 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS on the season and ranked #15 in the country. This week they face perhaps the biggest remaining hurdle to an undefeated regular season, that being Appalachian State. But we’ll gladly lay the points again with CC as the game is in Conway and the home team is off a bye. Coastal Carolina wasn’t supposed to be off a bye here, but last week’s game vs. Troy got called off because of COVID. The extra week to prepare for a tough opponent is a big break for the Chanticleers. Meanwhile the situation for Appalachian State is not good. They are 0-3 ATS the L3 weeks and haven’t beaten a ranked opponent since their famous upset of Michigan back in 2007 (0-7 SU since then). Making things even worse is the uncertain status of QB Zac Thomas. Thomas left last week’s 17-13 win over Georgia State with an apparent case of whiplash. Even if Thomas were to play Saturday, it’s tough to like the Mountaineers here considering they trailed Georgia State when Thomas got hurt. This is Coastal Carolina’s year. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
11-21-20 | LSU +1 v. Arkansas | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LSU Arkansas’ unbeaten ATS run ended last week in emphatic fashion. They were thumped 63-35 by Florida, which was a reminder just how large of a gap still exists between the Razorbacks and the SEC’s elite. For the record, the Hogs were 6-0 ATS this year prior to facing Florida and had covered eight in a row going back to the end of 2019. That eight win streak started with a cover vs. LSU - but they were 39.5 point underdogs last season. LSU obviously isn’t the same team this year, but they should still be able to defeat Arkansas for a fifth straight time. The Tigers were spared a beating at the hands of Alabama last week as that game was claimed by COVID. They haven’t played since an ugly 48-11 loss to Auburn Halloween night. All that time to prepare should lead to a focused effort this week and hopefully the players affected by COVID will return. They are 7-1 ATS following an ATS loss. Arkansas has its own COVID-related issues with Sam Pittman forced to coach remotely. That will affect a team’s preparation as we saw last week when the Razorbacks defense gave up almost 600 total yards against Florida. LSU isn’t Florida, but they are still better than the Hogs. LSU scored at least 34 points in every game before losing to Auburn. Play on LSU AAA | |||||||
11-20-20 | Purdue -3 v. Minnesota | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -106 | 59 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PURDUE Purdue is 2-1 but just suffered its first loss last Saturday. They came up short against Northwestern, losing 27-20 as 3.5-point home underdogs. That was painful for us as we had the Boilermakers. An inability to run the ball is what cost them. Running the ball here vs. Minnesota shouldn’t be a problem. The Golden Gophers have given up 181+ yards rushing in all four games and the 235 they allowed last week in a 35-7 loss to Iowa was only the THIRD most allowed in a game this season. So you shouldn’t be shocked to learn Minnesota is 1-3 on the year. Their lone win was against a bad Illinois team. They just haven’t looked right since the season started. Michigan, who obviously isn’t very good, blew them out. Then the Gophers lost as big favorites to a Maryland team that was off a 43-3 loss. Then came the 41-14 win over Illinois, which PJ Fleck hoped was the start of a turnaround. It wasn’t. Losing 35-7 at home to Iowa was a massive step back and the Golden Gophers have been outscored 84-31 in two games at TCF Bank Stadium. They’ve allowed 35+ points in all three losses this season. Purdue is 17-7 ATS off an ATS loss and has double revenge. They win. Play on PURDUE AAA | |||||||
11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 36 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE We’ve got a three-way tie atop the NFC West with the Cardinals, Rams and Seahawks all 6-3. Seattle is trending in the wrong direction right now as they’ve lost back to back games for the first time this season. They are 1-4 ATS their L5 games. Arizona has already beaten Seattle once, in primetime no less (it was a Sunday night game), and comes off a thrilling 32-30 win over Buffalo where they completed a Hail Mary on the final play. They were obviously pretty lucky to win Sunday and truthfully were lucky to beat the Seahawks the first time too. They had to score at the end of regulation just to force OT. Seattle outgained them in that first contest 572-519 and never trailed until the game went final. Considering the Seahawks went off as the favorite at Arizona, they are looking like a really good value in the rematch. We’ll take them to win. Seattle hasn’t lost three in a row since the 2011 season. Arizona has trailed by at least 7 points each of the last three weeks. They were down 14 against Buffalo. It wasn’t too long ago that some considered the Seahawks the best team in the league. We’re not panicking over the recent results. Don’t see them losing again in an obvious revenge spot. Play on SEATTLE AAA | |||||||
11-19-20 | Tulane v. Tulsa -6 | Top | 24-30 | Push | 0 | 35 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TULSA Tulane will arrive in Tulsa Thursday night on a 3-game SU win streak and a 5-game ATS win streak. But the teams they’ve been beating aren’t very good. Tulsa is now ranked #25 in the country, ending a decade-long absence from the polls. Their only loss this season was to Oklahoma State and they led that game going into the fourth quarter. They’ve since won four in a row including an upset of UCF. So we’ve got two hot teams from the American on the field Thursday night. We side with the Golden Hurricane as they are at home and have a defense that can stop the run. That latter part is huge when facing Tulane, who is 4-1 when rushing for 200+ yards this season. But Tulsa has yet to give up more than 151 yards rushing to any opponent. This is also a triple revenge spot for the Golden Hurricane, who has lost to Tulane three straight years. But none of those Tulsa teams won more than four games. This one is 4-1 SU. Tulane is 2-5 ATS the last seven times as a road underdog. One of those two covers was earlier this year (at UCF) as a 21-point dog (lost by 17). Tulsa has already beaten two teams (UCF, Houston) that beat Tulane by 17+. Play on TULSA AAA | |||||||
11-17-20 | Akron v. Kent State -25 | Top | 35-69 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KENT STATE Akron did play better than expected last week.They “only” lost by 14 to Ohio U. That a two-touchdown loss could be spun as a “success” (Zips easily covered the 27-point spread) should be a clear indication that this team is not good. They are probably one of the worst teams in the entire country. The loss to Ohio last Tuesday was their 19th straight, a streak which goes back to 2018. They were 0-12 SU a season ago. The Zips have failed to score more than 17 points in any of the last nine games. Such offensive (and overall) ineptitude is going to be a major problem facing rival Kent State this week.The Golden Flashes went just 2-10 SU in 2018. But unlike Akron, this program has turned things around. After winning five straight at the end of last year (including bowl), it’s a 2-0 start to 2020 that has seen the Flashes offense average 254 yards rushing and 295 yards passing! They put up 62 points last week on Bowling Green, a comparable team to Akron, and that was on the road. Akron’s defense has given up over 400 yards rushing in its two games.Last year, the Kent State defense held the Zips to three points in a 23-point win. This year’s matchup figures to be even more lopsided. It’s a team that’s 7-0 SU/6-1 ATS hosting a team that’s 0-19 SU/4-15 ATS its L19. A complete mismatch here. Play on KENT STATE AAA | |||||||
11-16-20 | Vikings -2.5 v. Bears | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 164 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA The Vikings have a real shot at erasing a poor 1-5 start to the season. They’re now 3-5 following wins over the Packers and Lions and after this week, they SHOULD be favored to win three consecutive home games (Dallas, Carolina, Jacksonville). The Bears are headed in the opposite direction as they were once 5-1, but have now lost three in a row. They have averaged just 16.7 points during the losing skid while the defense has given up 24.7. No longer can the defense carry this miserable offense in Chicago. Mitchell Trubisky wasn’t the answer at QB and Nick Foles isn’t either. There aren’t any other options right now. The big storyline for this game will be Kirk Cousins’ 0-9 record on Monday Night Football, but he’s better than what the Bears have at QB. Plus, Cousins has the luxury handing the ball off to Dalvin Cook, who has run for 369 yards the last two weeks with five touchdowns. The Bears rushing attack averages just 82 yards/game and they are 31st in third down success rate. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS L6 games and 40-22-1 ATS as favorites under Mike Zimmer. They continue their march back to .500. Play on MINNESOTA AAA | |||||||
11-15-20 | Ravens -7 v. Patriots | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -105 | 132 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BALTIMORE New England picked up an U-G-L-Y win Monday night against the Jets. The fact that they were trailing the Jets - by double digits - going into the 4th quarter should tell you all you need to know about the current state of the Patriots. Now on a short week they must turn around and play host to Baltimore, a team at the opposite end of the league’s spectrum. A 24-10 win over the Colts last week was hardly the Ravens “finest hour,” but they really dominated the second half which saw the defense pitch a shutout. That made it a 10-game road winning streak in which Lamar Jackson and the offense have averaged a very impressive 32.3 points/game. Remember that the Ravens destroyed a much better Patriots team around this time last season, 37-20. At the time, the Patriots were 8-0. Since then they’ve gone just 7-11 straight up. Their vaunted record as a home underdog is no longer really that applicable now that Tom Brady is in Tampa Bay. Baltimore has scored at least 20 points in 31 straight games and forced a turnover in 21 straight games. Play on BALTIMORE AAA | |||||||
11-15-20 | Seahawks +2 v. Rams | Top | 16-23 | Loss | -102 | 128 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 9* on SEATTLE Seattle suffered its second loss of the season last week, 44-34 at the hands of Buffalo. That result surprised us as did the fact Bills QB Josh Allen threw for more than 400 yards against the Seahawks defense. Now it's not as if we were under the impression the Seahawks defense is one of the league’s best (far from it), but still it was jarring to see them give up 44 points. Now they face the Rams, who are off a bye, in a very important NFC West matchup. Look for Russell Wilson to lead the bounce back. Since Wilson was drafted, Seattle is 23-10-2 ATS as an underdog, the best such record in the league during that time. The last time the Seahawks were getting points was … last season. The Rams’ defense is second in the league in points allowed, but they’ve faced a slew of poor offenses. When they faced Buffalo, they gave up 35 points and were down big in the 1st half. The Seahawks offense leads the league in scoring at 34.3 points/game. The Rams are 5-3, but that includes 4-0 against the terrible NFC East. Take that away and their only win was against a Chicago team whose offensive capabilities couldn’t be further from Seattle’s. Play on LA RAMS AAA | |||||||
11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Buffalo picked up a big win last week. They beat Seattle 44-34 to move to 7-2 on the year. But that was at home. They are just 1-4 ATS L5 road games and hadn’t covered in four straight overall before last week’s upset of the Seahawks. Arizona is off a loss to Buffalo’s AFC East rival Miami, dropping them to 1-5 ATS as a home favorite since 2018. But the Cardinals are a good team and we don’t see them losing two in a row on their home field. Remember that they are the only other team (besides Buffalo) to defeat Seattle this year. Kyler Murray is putting up some really impressive numbers and the offense posted more total yards than Miami last week (442 to 312) despite losing last week. It was a three-point loss where the Dolphins scored a defensive TD. The Bills were able to beat the Seahawks largely because of a +4 turnover differential. They really don’t have the statistical profile of a typical 7-2 team. Besides two wins over the Jets, they have three wins by a field goal and another by a touchdown. They were dominated by two of the AFC’s better teams, Tennessee and Kansas City. This number is too short. Play on ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
11-15-20 | Texans v. Browns -3 | Top | 7-10 | Push | 0 | 124 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CLEVELAND This seems to be a bit of a curious line as Houston is getting a lot of respect despite being 2-6 straight up and 1-7 against the spread. Both Texans wins have come against Jacksonville, the second one last week by a score of 27-25. Cleveland was off last week (bye) and has failed to cover three in a row themselves. But the Browns are in a much better spot than the Texans right now, 5-3 and in the playoff hunt for the first time in over a decade. They get RB Nick Chubb back this week, which is a big deal. When Chubb got hurt, the Browns were leading the NFL in rushing yards -- averaging more than 200 per game. They’ve since “slipped” a bit (to 5th) but with Chubb back in the fold should find little resistance against a terrible Houston defense that gives up the most rushing yards per game in the league. The Texans haven’t covered a single road game this year (0-4 ATS) nor have they covered a single time as an underdog (0-5). There were COVID-19 concerns midweek for the Browns, but those all seem to be in the rear view mirror now. This is a game they HAVE to win if they want to end the league’s longest playoff drought. Play on CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
11-14-20 | Wisconsin -4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 49-11 | Win | 100 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WISCONSIN Michigan has not played well as an underdog for Jim Harbaugh. They have lost all 10 games where they have been getting points and covered only twice. This will be the first time under Harbaugh that they’ve been a home dog to anyone besides Ohio State. It’s against a Wisconsin team that’s been forced to cancel its last two games because of COVID. While that is certainly a distraction no team wants to have to deal with, the Badgers were projected to be a Top 5 (ish) team (in the country) this season and were 45-7 winners (against Illinois) in the one game they did play. The Badgers could have QB Graham Mertz on the field this Saturday in Ann Arbor. Regardless whether or not he suits up, look for Wisconsin to take advantage of a terrible Wolverines secondary that has been picked apart in losses to Michigan State and Indiana. Michigan has missed covering the spread by a combined 45 points the last two weeks. They look to be vastly overrated and Harbaugh’s future is now very much in doubt. The team just isn’t very good. Wisconsin has won four of the last six against Michigan. Not only were they favored in all four wins, those four wins were all by double digits. While it was two weeks ago, the Badgers are 4-0 ATS the L4 times they’ve been off a 40+ point game. They’ve also covered 13 of 17 as road favorites. Play on WISCONSIN AAA | |||||||
11-14-20 | Oregon -10 v. Washington State | Top | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 69 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON You could pick apart Oregon’s 35-14 win over Stanford win last Saturday. The Cardinal didn’t have their starting QB or top receiver and still moved the ball pretty well. Had their kicker not missed FOUR field goals, it’s obviously a much closer game. But be careful about discounting what the Ducks did. Their offense, in the first game without Justin Herbert, gained almost 500 yards. Washington State’s defense isn’t good so we’re expecting plenty of points and yards from Oregon yet again this week. The big story (from a betting perspective) is that the Ducks are 0-10 ATS the L10 meetings with Wazzu. That is quite the crazy streak. Oregon did snap a 4-game SU losing streak to Wazzu with a 37-35 win in Eugene last year. Now it’s time for the ATS streak to end. We know lots of people are falling in love with last week’s performance by the Cougars new starting QB, Jayden de Laura. But remember that it came against Oregon State. You have to go back to the WSU defense, which gave up a lot of yards (451) and should be picked apart by Tyler Shough and the Ducks offense. Washington State is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times they’ve been off a SU win. Play on OREGON AAA | |||||||
11-14-20 | Northwestern v. Purdue +3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 67 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 9* on PURDUE Northwestern is 3-0 but has been pretty lucky to win each of the last two weeks. They trailed Iowa 17-0 before coming back, thanks to three Hawkeyes’ turnovers. They gained just 273 yards in that 21-20 victory. Then the Wildcats were -125 in total yards to Nebraska in a 21-13 win last week where again turnovers were the story. The Cornhuskers gave it away twice in the second half, both times deep inside Northwestern territory. In three games, Northwestern has forced nine turnovers. They probably can’t count on that saving them every week. Nebraska was in the red zone EIGHT times last week, yet came away with only 13 points. This week they go to Purdue to face a Boilermakers team that is also unbeaten (2-0). Purdue had an unexpected bye last Saturday as they were supposed to face Wisconsin, but that game was cancelled due to the Badgers’ COVID outbreak. The Boilermakers have looked good on offense even without All-American WR Rondale Moore. David Bell has 22 catches for 243 yards so far and Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald called HIM “the best receiver in the country.” The Wildcats are just 2-8-2 ATS the L12 times they’ve been favored. Purdue is on a 19-7 ATS run as underdogs. Play on PURDUE AAA | |||||||
11-14-20 | Colorado v. Stanford -6.5 | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* on STANFORD UPDATE: The following writeup was completed BEFORE the Pac 12 was forced to apologize to Stanford for the inconclusive testing that resulted in last week's COVID-related absences. All of those Cardinal players are now available for Saturday and we're liking this play even more! COVID issues and an opening week loss to Oregon will have many doubting Stanford this week, but not us. The Cardinal will be hosting a Colorado team that is off a 48-42 win over UCLA last Saturday. The Buffaloes were up big in that win (by 28 points), but had to hold off a furious second half rally by the Bruins. The biggest contributing factor to the win was a +4 turnover margin. The defense still gave up 7.0 yards per rush attempt and almost 500 total yards. Stanford should be able to move the ball here, even if it has to go with a backup QB again. Not having starter Davis Mills (COVID) versus a team as good as Oregon was a really tough blow for the Cardinal last week But they still gained over 400 yards with backup Jack West. The problem was that their kicker missed FOUR field goals! If called back into duty, West can again lean on RB Austin Jones, who just had a 100+ yard day against a defense that’s much better than the one he’ll face this week. Speaking of field goal issues, Colorado’s kicker just retired! The Buffs are 0-4 ATS their last four road games and they were the underdog in all four. Play on STANFORD AAA | |||||||
11-14-20 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette -15.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 64 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LOUISIANA The last two weeks have seen South Alabama fall short against Ga Southern and Coastal Carolina - by scores of 24-17 and 23-6. Now they have to play a third consecutive road game against who we still consider to be the top team in the Sun Belt, Louisiana. The Jaguars have just one road win in their last 16 tries and are 2-23 SU its L25 games as an underdog. While the Ragin Cajuns also lost to Coastal Carolina this year, they would probably still be favored in a rematch. They can potentially earn that rematch by winning Saturday as that would clinch the Sun Belt’s Western Division. (Coastal Carolina leads the East). Coastal Carolina is Louisiana’s only loss of 2020. The Ragin Cajuns have beaten Iowa State and since the CC loss are 3-0 and averaging 446.7 yards of offense. The defense is in the Top 20 in the country in passing yards allowed. Louisiana has beaten S Alabama four years in a row and was actually favored by 27.5 on the ROAD last season. While they didn’t cover the spot, this number is far more manageable and they’re at home this time. While all of Louisiana’s conference games so far have been decided by 10 points or less, they’ve been facing some of the better teams. This is their easiest game to date. Play on LOUISIANA AAA | |||||||
11-13-20 | East Carolina v. Cincinnati -27.5 | Top | 17-55 | Win | 100 | 55 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI Cincinnati is one of seven teams in the country that’s 6-0 or better. Other than Notre Dame and Alabama, some of the names on that list might surprise you. But the Bearcats are no joke. This is a legit top 10 team in the country right now that has absolutely been destroying its opponents. They’ve averaged 43 points the previous three games and that was against SMU, Memphis and Houston, three of the better teams in the American Athletic Conference. The defense is allowing just 11.7 points/game for the season and hasn’t given up more than 13 since allowing a season-high 20 in the opener vs. Austin Peay. While laying this many points presents a bit of a challenge, we just can’t see Cincy having any difficulty with a 1-5 East Carolina team that’s giving up 37.3 points/game. The Pirates ran for only 35 yards on 29 attempts in a 38-21 loss to Tulane last week, which was at home. They shouldn’t expect to be able to run the ball here either as the Bearcats’ defense is 10th best in the country at stopping the run. This should be a very easy win for the favorite. Lay it! Play on CINCINNATI AAA | |||||||
11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WESTERN MICHIGAN These are probably the best two teams in the MAC’s West Division and if one thing is for certain, it’s that this game is going to be a lot tougher than it was for either side in Week 1. Behind 310 yards rushing, Toledo smoked Bowling Green 38-3 last week. Western Michigan was just as unkind to Akron in a 58-13 blowout. We’ve got some concerns about Toledo though as the Rockets lost all 4 MAC road games last year and did so by an average of 28 points/game. Furthermore, their only two wins in the last six games of 2019 were by a total of five points and came about as a result of the opponents missing on a field goal & two-point conversion. Western Michigan was arguably as talented as any MAC team in 2019 and won all six of its home games. Five of those six wins were by double digits. With this game taking place in Kalamazoo, that’s an edge for the slightly favored Broncos. Also, having lost to Toledo three straight years, this is a big revenge game. We liked what we saw from WMU quarterback Eleby last week and the backs and receivers looked great as well. Toledo QB Peters has some accuracy issues, so be on the lookout for that. Both of these teams are off blowout wins, but the home team is more likely to keep it rolling. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN AAA | |||||||
11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan +9.5 v. Ball State | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 34 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EASTERN MICHIGAN You had both Eastern Michigan coming out on the wrong end of close games last week. They both blew second half leads, so you’ll have two teams ready to go Wednesday. Eastern Michigan lost 27-23 at Kent State and now hits the road for a second straight week to face a Ball State team that lost 38-31 at Miami, Ohio. Ball State won this matchup last season, but by just points, and before that it had been Eastern Michigan prevailing three straight years. This just looks like too many points in a pretty even matchup. Eastern Michigan is 21-6-1 ATS its last 28 games as a road underdog. So this is a spot they usually do well in. They covered the 5.5-point number last week at Kent State. Ball State did not cover against Miami as they were only 1-point underdogs. If you think that playing at home might help the Cardinals here, know that they are just 12-25 ATS their last 37 games here. Eastern Michigan has pulled 12 outright upsets the last four seasons and that actually includes three against Power 5 teams. Knowing that, a simple cover in this matchup doesn’t seem too challenging. Play on EASTERN MICHIGAN AAA | |||||||
11-10-20 | Miami-OH v. Buffalo -9.5 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BUFFALO Both Miami and Buffalo opened 2020 by winning. But both might feel a little fortunate to prevail by the margins that they did. Buffalo’s 49-30 win over Northern Illinois was a byproduct of five Huskies turnovers more than anything else, but at least they still won by 19 points. Miami was only a 38-31 winner over Ball State and had to come back from a double digit deficit (21-10) to do so. Now we had the RedHawks so that comeback made us quite happy. But we recognize a shaky start when we see one. Though they came back and won last week, losing starting QB Brett Gabbert wasn’t ideal. (As of press time, it’s unclear whether Gabbert will return this week). Buffalo might be the best team in the MAC this year. They were picked by many to win the conference last year, but a loss to Miami played a significant role in the Redhawks going on to capture the crown. The Bulls had 133 more yards than the Redhawks in last year’s game and the defense allowed just 2.6 yards per rush attempt. Being -4 in turnovers is what cost them. Buffalo’s defense was tops in scoring among MAC teams in 2019 and seven starters are back from that group. They scored THREE touchdowns last week and will be the difference in this revenge spot. Play on BUFFALO AAA | |||||||
11-08-20 | Dolphins v. Cardinals -4.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Two of the league’s surprises meet here as 4-3 Miami goes to 5-2 Arizona. Off their bye, the Dolphins beat the Rams last week 28-17. It was a nice win, but one that saw very little offense. With Tua Tagovailoa starting for the first time, the Dolphins offense gained just 145 total yards. They beat the Rams because they had a defensive touchdown, a punt return for touchdown and forced four turnovers, one of which led to a drive that started goal to go. It was the Rams that gained 471 yards. So Miami was outgained more than 3:1 and still won. The offense will have to be better this week against an Arizona team off its bye. Last we saw Kyler Murray, he was leading his team to an upset of Seattle two weeks ago. The Cardinals are the only team to beat the Seahawks. The offense has scored at least three touchdowns in 10 consecutive games. The defense ranks Top 10 against the pass, so look for Tua to have another rough day. The Dolphins have been favored in just one game all year, so its a real surprise they have a winning record. Play on ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
11-08-20 | Seahawks -2.5 v. Bills | Top | 34-44 | Loss | -116 | 122 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SEATTLE (money line) This looks to be a good game on paper with the 6-1 Seahawks taking on the 6-2 Bills. But even though both lead their respective divisions, we feel one side is clearly better than the other. Buffalo has actually been pretty mediocre in spite of its good record. They were a bit lucky to get by the Patriots last week as a 24-21 win needed a late Cam Newton fumble. It was the Bills’ 5th win by one score this season. Seattle, it could be argued, is in discussion for the league’s best team. They’re only loss this year came in overtime. They too have some close wins, but they’ve also scored at least 31 points in all but one game. Russell Wilson is on pace for what would be a record-setting season of 4900 yards passing and 600 yards rushing. His two leading receivers - Metcalf and Lockett - both already have 500+ yards and seven touchdowns! The defense has its issues, but Jamal Adams is set to come back. Buffalo has failed to cover four in a row. Seattle is 12-4-2 ATS in its last 18 games with a spread of three points or less. Plus they are 11-4-1 ATS L16 on the road. They will win this game. Play on SEATTLE (MONEYLINE) AAA | |||||||
11-08-20 | Texans -6.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Houston has just one win in 2020. It was against Jacksonville. That’s who the Texans face again this week. This time the Jaguars will be starting a rookie quarterback named Jake Luton, a sixth round choice out of Oregon State. The Jags have lost their last six games and haven’t covered the spread in any of the last five. This is one of the worst teams in the league. Houston hasn’t played well and has the same 1-6 SU record as well as being 1-6 against the spread. But they have more talent than Jacksonville. Who would you rather have - Luton or DeShaun Watson? Watson is undefeated in five career starts vs. the Jaguars. It was 30-14 earlier this year as the Texans offense put up a season-most 487 yards. The Jaguars are 28th in rushing yards allowed. They’ve also given up 30 or more points in six straight games. The Texans are 11-2 L13 vs. Jacksonville and 16-4 L20. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
11-07-20 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina -18 | Top | 6-23 | Loss | -109 | 106 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COASTAL CAROLINA Coastal Carolina is 6-0 and we had them last week when they absolutely bludgeoned Georgia State 51-0. QB Grayson McCall returned (from an injury) and threw for four touchdowns and ran for another. The Chanticleers are now the #15 ranked team in the country. After being a short favorite each of the last two weeks, they turn around to host a South Alabama team that simply isn’t on the same level. The Jaguars started their campaign with an upset of Southern Miss on the road. But the only road game they’ve played since was a 24-17 loss at Georgia Southern last Thursday. The win against Southern Miss, not a good team by the way, is the Jaguars only road win in their last 15 tries. Let’s not forget they are 2-22 SU the last 24 games as an underdog. Coastal Carolina has covered every game but one this year. They’ve won five straight against the Sun Belt and already beaten some of the conference’s best this year. Certainly, they should have little difficulty winning Saturday. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
11-07-20 | Florida +3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 102 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA We’ve got a showdown in the SEC East this weekend with Florida taking on Georgia in what we can safely say will NOT be a “Cocktail Party.” Florida lost earlier this year to Texas A&M, but losing by three on the road to that opponent shouldn’t be considered bad at all. It was considered “bad” at the time, only because Florida was favored and in hindsight they should not have been. (A&M was off a bad loss to Alabama and hadn’t really looked good). But after a two-week hiatus (COVID), the Gators responded with a 41-17 thumping of Mizzou last week. Now they are underdogs for the 1st time. Their offense has been fantastic so far, scoring at least 38 in every game. QB Trask has at least 4 TD passes in every game as well. Remember that Georgia’s defense gave up 41 to Alabama and is now banged up minus star safety LeCounte and DL Rochester. Georgia’s QB Stetson Bennett has not looked all that impressive. Give us the better offensive team taking points. The Dawgs have scored just 38 points total the last two games. Play on FLORIDA AAA | |||||||
11-07-20 | Texas Tech v. TCU -8 | Top | 18-34 | Win | 100 | 102 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TCU TCU got their act together in a 33-23 win against Baylor last Saturday. Now they return to Fort Worth to play a Texas Tech that hasn’t really been able to get it together all season. The Red Raiders just gave up 62 points in a loss to Oklahoma last week. It was their second time losing while giving up 60+ this season. Their only Big 12 win was against West Virginia, a game where they got outgained by nearly 100 yards. But a late defensive TD put them over the top there. The only other win this season was against FCS Houston Baptist and even then they allowed 600 yards and had to fend off a late 2-point try. TCU is 2-0 on the road, but 0-3 at home. It's just a matter of time until they rectify that discrepancy. The Horned Frogs were up 30-0 last week on Baylor. Meanwhile, Texas Tech gave up 48 in the first half to Oklahoma. These are teams going in opposite directions. The Red Raiders are 2-8 ATS L10 road games. Play on TCU AAA | |||||||
11-07-20 | Liberty +15 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY You may not know it, but Liberty has one of the best records in the country. The 25th ranked Flames are 5-0, though they haven’t really beaten anyone of substance. The expectation this week is clearly that they’ll suffer their first loss. But might the oddsmakers be writing them off too much? We think so. While this is the first time since 2002 that a team at 5-0 or better has been a double digit dog to a team with two or more losses, that last instance saw the underdog (Notre Dame) pull an outright upset. Liberty averages 40 points/game, so it’s going to be hard for Virginia Tech to score enough to cover the number in this one. Sure, the Hokies will probably hold the Flames under their season scoring average, but they are still going to have to score a lot of points. Liberty is going to put up a fair number here as Va Tech has allowed at least 31 points in half of its games. The Hokies gave up almost 550 total yards last week to Louisville. They allowed well over 600 to North Carolina. Liberty may not be UNC but they are good enough to cover the spot. Play on LIBERTY AAA | |||||||
11-07-20 | West Virginia v. Texas -6.5 | Top | 13-17 | Loss | -107 | 98 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS Texas was overrated at the start of the season, but now we’re getting a pretty good value on the Longhorns as they prepare to host West Virginia this Saturday. The ‘Horns have lost twice but easily could have won both of those games. The Oklahoma game went to four overtimes while the TCU game saw UT fumble at the goal line. Now UT has won twice in overtime so far, including last week’s 41-34 upset of Oklahoma State. But we don’t think you can trust a WVU side that has lost both of its road games thus far. The Mountaineers are off their best win so far, 37-10 over Kansas State, but the Wildcats were playing with a backup QB. Texas went to Morgantown last year and won easily, 42-31. Based on that, you’d think they should easily win in Austin. QB Sam Ehlinger hasn’t played as well as some would hope, but the Longhorns offense still averages 44.3 points/game, which is 10th best in the entire country right now. WVU just isn’t very good on the road and getting this number on the “right side” of 7 seems ideal. Play on TEXAS AAA | |||||||
11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State +3 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -105 | 84 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOISE STATE Undefeated BYU (7-0) is set for its toughest test of 2020 when they hit the blue turf in Boise Friday night. Boise State is also undefeated, although just 2-0 (both straight up and against the spread). BYU is 6-1 ATS but it’s really important to look at who they’ve played. Other than Houston, most of the opponents can be found near the bottom of the FBS power rankings. They have been a two touchdown favorite (or more) in five games and a 24 (or more) point favorite in four games. The last two weeks they were favored by 29 and 30.5 points at home vs. Texas State and Western Kentucky. Boise State is the best team they will play all season. The Broncos are not used to being home underdogs. This is only the second time it’s happened in the regular season in the last 15 years. The other time was two years ago vs. Fresno State and they won that game outright, 24-17, getting 2.5 points. Not only is this a chance for Boise State to knock off a 7-0 team, it’s a revenge spot too. BYU gave them their only regular season loss last year 28-25 in Provo. The Cougars are 0-5 all-time here in Boise though. Play on BOISE STATE AAA | |||||||
11-05-20 | Packers -4 v. 49ers | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GREEN BAY This is a significant revenge game on the Green Bay side. They lost twice to San Francisco last season. Neither game was really competitive either with final scores of 37-8 and 37-20. But it will be a much different 49ers team they face Thursday night. It won’t at all resemble the 2019 version. Really, it’s going to be quite the “skeleton crew.” Not only are there injuries to QB Garoppolo and TE Kittle, but the team is now dealing with a COVID outbreak that claimed the likes of WR Aiyuk (who had been playing well) and OL Trent Williams. The 49ers just don’t have much to offer here on a short week. The Packers won’t have much sympathy though. Coming out of a 28-22 loss to the Vikings last week, they know they can’t afford to lose this game. Wouldn’t you know the Packers are a perfect 6-0 ATS off their previous six losses. We took them in this exact spot against Houston two weeks ago, a game they won 35-20. They may be thin at running back, but Aaron Rodgers is still taking snaps and this offense put up 400+ yards in a loss last week. Don’t see Green Bay losing for a third time in four weeks as a favorite. Play on GREEN BAY AAA | |||||||
11-05-20 | Utah State v. Nevada -15.5 | Top | 9-34 | Win | 100 | 57 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEVADA Nevada should run wild in this Thursday night matchup. They are 2-0 and up against a Utah State team that hasn’t been able to stop anyone so far. The winless Aggies are allowing 40 points/game. Nevada has scored 37 points in both of its wins. The Wolf Pack defense should also get a chance to “show off” Thursday as the Utah State offense has only been able to manage 20 points in two games. Nevada is a team that has been able to cover six of its last seven games (going back to last season) including both so far in 2020. They are led by QB Strong who is completing 75% of his passes with zero interceptions. He has 770 yards passing in two games. Last week vs. UNLV, Strong and this Nevada offense gained 9.2 yards/play! The Wolf Pack have revenge for a 36-10 loss on the road to Utah State last season. That was a much stronger Utah State team, however. This year should be a Nevada blowout. Utah State is only 7-19 ATS its last 26 times as an underdog. Play on NEVADA AAA | |||||||
11-04-20 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -2 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI OH In case you forgot, Miami won the MAC last year. They are on a 23-8 SU run in conference play and have won eight in a row at home, which is where they open the season. The RedHawks had a lead in every game in 2019 and will return a bulk of the players from that team. The season opens with Ball State visiting Oxford and Miami certainly remembers how it lost to the Cardinals in last year’s regular season finale. With the MAC East already clinched, they led 27-14 at halftime and decided to pull starters. From that point on, Ball State had a 17-1 edge in first downs and won 41-27. Ball State had plenty of offense last year, but also gave up 31.4 points/game. They did not have a good record in close games (while Miami did). Still, even if you think that was a case of “bad luck,” this line seems short given the offensive talent Miami returns. They are 8-2 ATS the L10 home games and 14-4 ATS L18 conference games. Play on MIAMI OHIO AAA | |||||||
11-04-20 | Western Michigan v. Akron +18 | Top | 58-13 | Loss | -107 | 32 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on AKRON Since going 13-1 in 2016 under PJ Fleck, Western Michigan has lost six games each of its three seasons under Tim Lester. The team was probably better than 7-6 a season ago, but the Broncos probably shouldn't be expected to win big Wednesday even though the opponent is Akron. The Zips did not win a single game in 2019 (0-12) under Tim Arth, but should be a lot more competitive this year. They are certainly more experienced. Kato Nelson is a good QB with a solid receiving corps to throw to. The defense has 11 of its top 16 tacklers back. Western Michigan is breaking in a new starting QB and RB. This most unusual offseason and the fact they open on the road have us believing the Broncos may struggle more than expected in this one. They are just 1-7 ATS their last eight road games and 1-5 ATS their last six times as a road favorite. Play on AKRON AAA | |||||||
11-01-20 | 49ers v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 7* on SEA Seattle lost last week, the first time all season that’s happened, but it took overtime. We don’t think this line should have dropped as far as it has, based on one loss. The Seahawks offense is still as good as any in the league. They’ll be facing a good 49ers defense here. But the issue for the Niners is their offense, which just won’t be able to keep up. Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t Kyler Murray, the quarterback that beat Seattle last week. The Seahawks defense is most susceptible to the pass, but we don’t see Garoppolo and the Niners taking full advantage of that. Despite the third shortest average pass distance, “Jimmy G” has the fifth highest interception rate since the start of last year. Making that many mistakes while playing it conservative is pretty rare. This is a home game for Seattle. They are 31-8 straight up the week after a loss and have covered 13 of the last 17 games with San Francisco. Play on SEATTLE AAA | |||||||
11-01-20 | Chargers -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAC The Chargers didn’t win any division games last year. They appeared well on their way to winning one earlier this year when they led the Chiefs by 11 in the second half of Week 2. But they lost that game in overtime. Close losses have haunted this franchise in recent years but the Bolts left nothing to chance last week when they defeated Jacksonville 39-29. While just their second win of the season, we think it’s the start of what looks to be a favorable stretch for the team. They are 4-1-1 ATS and this week are in Denver to face a Broncos team that has scored more than 21 points in only one game all year and that was vs. the Jets. Justin Herbert may be a rookie, but he’s already surpassed Denver’s Drew Lock, who has the league’s third worst QBR over the past two weeks. Since the start of 2017, LA is 7-2-1 ATS as an away favorite. The Broncos lost by 27 last week and while that was to the Chiefs, they are now 0-3 at home with two of those losses by 18 or more. They also have the league’s second worst turnover differential, so be on the look out for that. Play on LA CHARGERS AAA | |||||||
11-01-20 | Titans -5.5 v. Bengals | Top | 20-31 | Loss | -109 | 123 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEN Tennessee is off its first loss of the season, but it came by just three points (27-24) to a team that also came into last week unbeaten (Pittsburgh). The Titans are 16-7-2 ATS the past 25 times they’ve been off a loss. Our expectation here is they are going to put up a lot of points on a Cincinnati team that always seems to be close, but can’t get over the hump. The Bengals’ record is 1-5-1 after a 37-34 home loss to Cleveland last week where they gave up the game winning touchdown late. It was their fourth loss by five points or fewer this season. While the Bengals are 5-1 ATS the last 6 weeks (only loss to Baltimore), one of the league’s worst defenses is really going to struggle to contain Ryan Tannehill and a very good Titans offense that is averaging 36 points/game over the last three weeks. The Cincinnati offensive line does not do a good job at protecting rookie Joe Burrow and he figures to be running for his life in this one. The Bengals have allowed the most sacks in the league while the Titans lead in takeaways. The Bengals defense is now worse after trading its best pass rusher, Carlos Dunlap. Play on TENNESSEE AAA | |||||||
10-31-20 | LSU -2.5 v. Auburn | Top | 11-48 | Loss | -118 | 101 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LSU LSU is still being penalized for its two early season losses. The defensive showings vs. Mississippi State and Missouri were definitely both bad, but let’s not forget the extenuating circumstances of that game vs. Mizzou, which was moved from Baton Rouge to Columbia because of the hurricane. Even without starting QB Myles Brennan, the Tigers looked great last week in demolishing South Carolina 52-24. That performance was closer to what you should expect from the Tigers as opposed to those two losses. LSU definitely can score no matter who the QB is. Freshman TJ Finley looked great last week, so if he’s called on again, we expect him to answer the bell. The Tigers are averaging 42.0 points/game and have scored at least 41 each of the last three games. Auburn has not been impressive so far as they are lucky to even be 3-2. They could have easily lost games vs. Arkansas and Ole Miss and have been outgained on the season. QB Bo Nix is inconsistent and will be facing a defense that has already forced 10 turnovers in four games. Auburn has zero turnovers in its three wins, but we are expecting them to give it away multiple times here. Play on LSU AAA | |||||||
10-31-20 | Coastal Carolina -2.5 v. Georgia State | Top | 51-0 | Win | 100 | 97 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CC #20 Coastal Carolina stayed unbeaten last week with a 28-14 win over Georgia Southern. The defense certainly did its job in shutting the Eagles out in the second half while holding them to just 218 total yards for the game. The Chanticleers won despite not having QB Grayson McCall. You’ll want to note that his backup, Fred Payton, threw three touchdown passes last week. That’s really not too surprising as Payton has started 10 games over the previous two seasons. Coach Jamey Chadwell is “cautiously optimistic” that McCall will return this week, but either way we’re in on the Chanticleers to get the victory over Georgia State. The Panthers have lost 7 of 10 to teams with winning records and already have suffered close losses to Louisiana and Arkansas State this season. They were also outgained 447-379 by Troy last week in a 36-34 win. The defense has given up nearly 1,000 passing yards its last two games! The offense is missing a starting receiver. Georgia State has never beaten a ranked team before while CC has won 5 of its last 6 games where the line is three points or less. Play on COASTAL CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
10-31-20 | Temple +4.5 v. Tulane | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEMPLE Tulane is just 2-4 thus far so we don’t think they are a very strong candidate to be laying points right now. They have blown big leads in two of those losses, to Navy and Houston, but also had a big rally of their own to defeat South Alabama. Half of their games have been decided by a field goal. They’ve also lost three in a row, two of those coming by at least 17 points. The defense is giving up a lot of points, 35.3 per game to be exact, so Temple should be able to score enough to stay within the number this week. Now the Owls could easily be 0-3 if not for their own rally vs. South Florida. But they only lost by two at Navy and then were more competitive than the scoreboard showed vs. Memphis last week. They had the yardage edge and more first downs. They actually gained 500 yards for the game. The problem was they turned the ball over four times. We mentioned the Tulane defense is giving up a lot of points. Well, they are also giving up lots of yards. Over the last three games, they’ve allowed 1,746 total yards! They gave up 689 to UCF last week. This is a game where you’ll want to take the points. Play on TEMPLE AAA | |||||||
10-31-20 | Purdue -6.5 v. Illinois | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PURDUE Purdue opened its season with a bit of an upset. They beat Iowa 24-20 as a 3.5-point home dog, scoring a late TD to get the win. Consider that they were without their best player (WR Rondale Moore) and head coach Jeff Brohm due to COVID-19. While it remains unclear if Moore is going to be back this week, Brohm is planning on being back on the sidelines. The Boilermakers certainly have enough pieces to dominate lowly Illinois, who lost 45-7 to Wisconsin last week. The only Illini touchdown came from the defense and now they go up against a team that allowed just three points in the second half last week. This is also a revenge game for Purdue as they shockingly lost to Illinois, 24-6, last season. They haven’t beaten the Boilermakers back to back years since 2001-02. Not only was the offense non-existent for the Illini last week, the defense was also bad. They forced just one incompletion on 21 attempts! Play on PURDUE AAA |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ray Monohan | $759 |
Joey Tron | $580 |
William Burns | $483 |
Ross Benjamin | $475 |
Tom Macrina | $468 |
Jesse Schule | $466 |
Matt Fargo | $398 |
Big Al McMordie | $324 |
Ricky Tran | $258 |
AAA Sports | $229 |