Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-28-19 | Washington State v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 100 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UTAH Both Washington State and Utah suffered crushing defeats last week. Utah's came first and was not all that out of the ordinary. It's the kind of upset we see at least once a week. While having a 27-16 edge in first downs over your opponent and still losing is disappointing, there's no shame in losing to USC at the Coliseum. In fact, it's been over 100 years since Utah last won there. One thing is for certain and that's it won't be another 100 years until they finally win at the Coliseum. What happened to Washington State late Saturday though was something you'll rarely, if ever, see again. Despite 63 points, 750 yards of total offense and NINE touchdown passes from QB Gordon, the Cougars LOST to UCLA - at home. They blew a 32-point lead in the second half in what was the third largest comeback (in terms of point margin) in NCAA history. Washington State was the first team to allow 50 points in a second half in 15 seasons. Only one team can bounce back from these two horrible defeats. We think it will be Utah and that they'll cover the spread to boot. The Utes have lost four in a row to Wazzu - by an average of 6 points/game. But this year's team is better irregardless of what we saw last Friday night in LA. And they are still the better team here even if RB Moss can't suit up. Washington State was a pointspread juggernaut last season, but has now failed to cover three straight games. Playing on the road after allowing 50 points in 19 minutes is hardly ideal. Lay it! Play on UTAH AAA | |||||||
09-28-19 | NC State v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE It took four tries, but Florida State finally looked impressive for an entire game in 2019. They jumped on Louisville last week, racing out to a 21-0 lead by the end of the first quarter. They held on to win 35-24 and cover as a 6.5-point favorites. Of course, starting well hasn't actually been an issue this year for the Seminoles. They led Boise State 31-13 (lost 36-31), UL Monroe 21-0 (won 45-44) and Virginia 24-17 (lost 31-24). They easily could be 4-0 and the narrative surrounding the program and coach Taggart would certainly be a whole lot different, wouldn't it? We're going to call for the turnaround to continue this week, facing North Carolina State, who is a suspect 3-1 team. They've beaten East Carolina, Western Carolina and Ball State. But the only time they've ventured off campus, they were beaten 44-27 by West Virginia, a game they were actually expected to win by seven. The Wolfpack are only 1-5 ATS their last six road games and 1-7 ATS following a straight up win. The home team has won this game 9 of the past 13 times. Florida State has big-time revenge after losing 47-28 in Raleigh. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA | |||||||
09-28-19 | Kansas State +5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -109 | 97 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on KANSAS STATE Under normal circumstances, this would set up as a very even affair between two teams looking to move up the Big 12 pecking order. But the circumstances are not normal this week in Stillwater as Oklahoma State is off a tough loss (to Texas) and visiting Kansas State is off a bye. The latter certainly seems to be underrated right now. Kansas State has already beaten Mississippi State on the road and is 3-0 ATS. Oklahoma State not only lost in Austin last week, they also struggled (for a half) in Tulsa the week before. The underdog brings the better defense, giving up 12.7 points/game to OSU's 26.8. Also, the Wildcats are 7-3 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points while the Cowboys are 2-7 ATS as favorites of -3.5 to -10 with five outright losses. Kansas State is also 11-4 ATS as a single digit road underdog since 2016. Though the home team has won 13 of the previous 16 meetings, Kansas State has won the last two - as a 20-point underdog and as an eight-point underdog. It may say something that the unranked team (Oklahoma State) is favored here, but they are at home. Or it may mean the oddsmakers simply haven't caught onto the fact that Kansas State is a lot better than expected for first year coach Chris Kleiman, who built an empire at the FCS level with North Dakota State and is translating well (so far) to the FBS level. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA | |||||||
09-28-19 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -1 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 90 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI (OH) Miami of Ohio did not fare well in the non-conference portion of the schedule, winning just one of four games and that one victory came against a FCS opponent. But the three losses were to: Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State, all games where they were an underdog of at least 17 points. So really, we can't say we're all that surprised to see the RedHawks coming into Saturday with a 1-3 record. But what we are surprised about is that Buffalo beat Temple last week, 38-22, as a two-touchdown underdog. Over was our call in that game, but we certainly didn't expect the Bulls to win it on field. Then again, the week before they lost at Liberty as a 5.5-point favorite. Because most of the country saw Miami lose 76-5 to Ohio State last week, there certainly won't be a rush to bet the RedHawks this week. But we love the spot. Over its last 22 MAC games, Miami is actually 16-6 straight up AND against the spread. Buffalo has not played nearly the kind of schedule that Miami has and averaged just 15 points in two road games. Miami has gotten to play just once at home and scored 48 on Tennessee Tech. Buffalo had only 279 total yards of offense last week, but Temple turned it over four times, so that's how the Bulls won that one. One touchdown came from the defense and two more came on drives that started in the red zone. Miami will take better care of the football and win this one. Play MIAMI OH AAA | |||||||
09-27-19 | Hamilton +5.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HAMILTON We still have several weeks left in the CFL regular season, but three teams have already clinched playoff spots and these are two of them. Winnipeg is tied with Calgary a top the Western Division with matching 9-4 records. Hamilton is 10-3 and is running away from the rest of the East. The last time these division leaders met was Week 7. The Blue Bombers entered that game undefeated (5-0), but the Ti-Cats dealt them their first defeat, 23-15 as a 1-pt home dog. Hamilton won that game despite losing QB Jeremiah Masoli in the first quarter. Simple math reveals that Winnipeg has gone just 4-4 its last eight games, but three of the losses have come by a total of four points. The Ti-Cats are the only team to beat them by more than a two-point margin all year. One of those Winnipeg losses came last week, 38-37 at Montreal, as they blew a 24-point lead. Interestingly, Hamilton's three losses this year have been by a total of 13 points. So we have every reason to expect a close one here, which makes taking the points logical. Both teams have had to turn to backup quarterbacks this year with the starters injured, so it's impressive that they are still leading their respective divisions. But Dane Evans (Hamilton) seems to have played better than Chris Streveler (Winnipeg). Streveler is a much different type QB than Matt Nichols. The Bombers are undefeated at home, but the Ti-Cats have the best inter-division record in the league. Gotta take the points in this one. Play on HAMILTON AAA | |||||||
09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -118 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on VA TECH While you may not yet be sold on Virginia Tech this year, don't be surprised if Friday in Blacksburg proves to be the Hokies "coming out party." They turned it over five times in their only loss, which was on the road. But they have won 15 of the last 21 games at Lane Stadium. With 10 starters back from last year, the defense should be solid in Bud Foster's final season as coordinator. This team won 19 games in Justin Fuente's first two years. They dropped to six wins in 2018, but that included one over a Duke team that had a future NFL starting quarterback in Daniel Jones. The game was in Durham and not close as VT won 31-14 as a three-point dog. The Blue Devils aren't as good this year despite easily defeating their last two opponents. (They lost 42-3 to Alabama in the opener). Virginia Tech has won 16 of the last 18 meetings overall including three straight. The last two wins have been by a combined 38 points. The Hokies have covered their last five Friday night games. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA | |||||||
09-26-19 | Eagles +5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA The Eagles are 1-2, not to mention a banged up football team right now. Down both starting receivers last week, they lost at home to the Lions 27-24. But as you can see from that score, offense wasn't really the problem. Even with DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery out, the Eagles had more first downs than the Lions did and outgained them on the day. The problems were special teams and turnovers. Detroit returned a kickoff for a TD early in the game and would not have won without it. Philly also fumbled twice and both times it led to a Lions field goal. Then there was the Eagles failure to take advantage of a Lions special teams miscue. Late in the game, they blocked a Matt Prater field goal attempt. Despite starting at midfield, Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense could not move the ball into scoring position, instead turning it over on downs. Jeffery is expected back this week as is TE Dallas Goebert, who was limited to just nine snaps against the Lions. Green Bay is a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread, but a little lucky to be in this position considering they have been outgained in every game. Key for them is being +6 in turnovers as the defense has been much better than expected. But we don't see the Pack covering for a third straight time as home favorites. As an underdog, the Eagles are 9-4 ATS the last two seasons with eight outright victories. We'll take the points. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA | |||||||
09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MEMPHIS Memphis quickly established itself as the potential "Group of 5" team to get a New Year's Day Bowl slot when they beat Ole Miss in Week 1. The Tigers are now 3-0 and surprisingly it's been the defensive side of the ball that's been more impressive. Sure, the offense scored a combined 97 points against Southern and South Alabama the last two games. But the defense has given up only 40 points all year, thereby reducing the total PPG scored in Memphis' games to just under 51, which is down from 75 a year ago. This Thursday they welcome in Navy for a key AAC West showdown. Navy has played only two games, both against lesser competition (Holy Cross, East Carolina). As you would expect, the Midshipmen didn't struggle to win either game. They beat Holy Cross by 38 and ECU by 32. After a down year last season (finished 3-10 SU!), Navy is back to running the ball effectively as they're averaging 371 yards/game on the ground. But we look for them to get slowed down here by this vastly improved Memphis defense. This group held Ole Miss, an SEC team, to 10 points and 173 yards. The most yards gained by any Memphis opponent so far is 258 and that was, surprisingly, Southern. But even there, the Tigers defense performed better than you think. Southern gained 58 yards on its first two snaps, than only 200 the rest of the game on 3.6 yards per play. Southern also scored a defensive TD in that game. While conference play will ultimately determine if this Memphis' D is the "real deal" or not, we think it is and the Tigers closed last year by covering six of their last seven games against American opposition. They are simply the much better team here. Play on MEMPHIS AAA | |||||||
09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON The Redskins will look to reverse the franchise's "curse" on Monday Night Football. Of all the things that have plagued this franchise in recent years, an 0-6 SU/ATS mark in the NFL's marquee primetime game is definitely one of them. This year, the team comes into its MNF appearance at 0-2 with a couple of division losses to Philadelphia and Dallas and in desperate need of a spark. Getting points against a Chicago team that struggles to score may be just what they need. The Bears are lucky not to be 0-2 themselves as they got a last second 50+ yard field goal to beat Denver 16-14 last week. That was after losing the season opener 10-3 to the rival Packers. After going 12-5 ATS last season (including playoff loss), the Bears are 0-2 ATS to start 2019. They were favored in both games. A second straight game as a road favorite seems dicey for a team with a struggling quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky has been very bad so far this year, ranking 32nd in both yards per pass attempt and passer rating. He's completing only 58.3% of his passes. As we saw in multiple games yesterday, 0-2 teams often show up in these situations and are good bets when taking points. Not sure if it means anything, but the Redskins have beaten the Bears seven straight times dating back to the 2003 season. They are 13-2 SU head to head since 1989. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +4 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND Doesn't seem like there's many takers on the Browns this week, but they look like the right side to us Sunday night. Take away one bad quarter against the Titans and this defense has played really well so far. While it's certainly a big step up facing Jared Goff and the Rams, they'll have a fired up crowd rooting them on as this is the first Sunday night game in Cleveland in 11 years. The Rams had a close win (3 points) over Carolina in Week 1, then knocked Drew Brees out last week, turning a game with the Saints into an noncompetitive affair. Believe it or not, the Browns offense is actually averaging more yards per play (6.3) than the Rams are (5.7) through two games. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS as a home dog since last year began. After being such a popular team with the public to start the year, the Browns don't seem to have much support this week. But we think that's the perfect time to take them as we can smell a potential upset in this one. Grab the points. Play on CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
09-22-19 | Giants v. Bucs -6.5 | Top | 32-31 | Loss | -109 | 122 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY Obviously, the big story here is the Giants moving on from Eli Manning and going with rookie Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback. Does it even matter though? The Giants are a bad team that has beaten by double digits in both games. Also, have we forgotten just how divisive of a draft choice Jones was? Many respected minds thought he was a HUGE reach at #6 overall. Two good preseason performances aren't enough to sway us. Something else not helping the Giants case here is that Tampa Bay is on extra rest. The Buccaneers picked up their first win of the season last Thursday by going to Carolina and upsetting the Panthers. Unlike the Giants, the Bucs defense seems a lot better this year. Credit goes to new coordinator Todd Bowles. Tampa is allowing 1.5 yards less per play compared to last year. They've also given up only 31 points in two games. The Giants have scored just 31 points in two games. New York has also lost 13 of 17 road games and is just 1-8 SU in the month of September (2-7 ATS). This is the 6th time in 7 seasons they've started 0-2. Jones alone isn't enough to save this Giants team, if he is even capable of saving anything. One could argue that the Giants may not even be salvageable. Lay the points. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
09-22-19 | Ravens v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KANSAS CITY We used both of these teams in Week 1. The Ravens crushed the Dolphins 59-10. The Chiefs had no problem beating the Jaguars 40-26. Both are now 2-0. This will be hyped as an early season showdown in the AFC with the winner probably deemed as the conference's top challenger to the Patriots. But there is a reason to still be a little skeptical of Baltimore. They have played two poor teams to get to 2-0. Obviously, Miami is the worst team in the league. Arizona, who they barely beat last week, isn't far ahead and has a rookie QB. Had the Cardinals not settled for three field goals inside the Ravens' five-yard line last week, they easily could have pulled the upset. The Chiefs two victims, Jacksonville and Oakland, aren't exactly great either. But we know the Chiefs can beat the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. They did it last year. Now that took overtime, but they did win. We expect a larger margin of victory this year. Strangely, the Chiefs scored all four touchdowns last week in the second quarter. They scored 68 points in the first six quarters of the year before shockingly hanging a "goose egg" in the second half vs. the Raiders. But one positive was the defensive pitching a shutout in the final three quarters. They held the Raiders to 5.2 yards per pass attempt The Chiefs are on a 9-0 ATS run in September and 16-5-1 ATS in Week 3. This is their home opener. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA | |||||||
09-21-19 | Notre Dame +15 v. Georgia | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is taking on a top five opponent (Georgia) here and we know what happens when that's the case. The Fighting Irish, more often than not, fold like a cheap tent in this situation as they are 4-13 ATS. The last 19 times the Irish faced a top five foe that is outscoring its opponents by at least 20.6 points/game, they've lost 18 of those games. All but four of those 18 losses have been by double digits. Ten of them have come by at least 20 points. Four of the losses have come during the Brian Kelly regime and three were by two touchdowns or more. We all remember that CFP semifinal game last January against Clemson right? The Irish lost that 30-3. So the Irish might as well not even leave South Bend right? Wrong! Because of that poor reputation in these kind of games, this number is inflated this week. Notre Dame catching two touchdowns, even on the road, is a bargain as this spread should be no higher than 10 points in our estimation. Georgia will likely come in overconfident and struggle early. The Dawgs have yet to be tested this year and say what you will about Notre Dame, they're a whole heck of a lot better than Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. The Irish have only played twice, so they're the fresher of the two teams. Two years ago, they lost by only a point in South Bend to UGA. It'll be another close one Saturday night. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA | |||||||
09-21-19 | Nebraska v. Illinois +13.5 | Top | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ILLINOIS Saturday night finds Illinois looking to do what Big 10 rival Nebraska did only a week ago. That being bounce back from an outright loss as a favorite. Two weeks ago, Nebraska suffered a shocking defeat at the hands of Colorado, 34-31 as a four-point favorite. The Cornhuskers came into 2019 with a ton of hype and that loss shattered it a bit as they blew a 17-point lead and lost in overtime. They did bounce back last week by trouncing Northern Illinois 44-8. They'll stay in the Land of Lincoln this week, moving from DeKalb to Champaign and open up conference play. Illinois lost last week to Eastern Michigan, 34-31 (sound familiar?) as a seven-point favorite here at home. The good news here is they don't have to win like Nebraska did last week. The Illini only need to cover and the oddsmakers have obliged with a generous spread that we've seen the public already bet up. This number shows us that the hype train is still moving a bit too fast with Nebraska. Can't say we're huge fans of what Lovie Smith has done here at Illinois, who has not been to a bowl since 2014. Smith has had a young team each of his first three seasons here, but this is easily his most experienced - and best - group yet. They should be highly motivated following last week's loss while Nebraska could be prone for another letdown. By the way, Scott Frost is 0-6 in road games as the 'Huskers coach. Play on ILLINOIS AAA | |||||||
09-21-19 | Oregon v. Stanford +10.5 | Top | 21-6 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on STANFORD Already with two losses, Stanford would seem to have its back against the wall here vs. Oregon, a game in which few, if any, will expect the Cardinal to win. The defenses in Palo Alto have usually been very solid under David Shaw, but the last two games have seen them shredded for 90 points as they've given up 45 to both USC and UCF. Now Oregon comes to town. Despite what many perceive as being a mismatch, Stanford has always given the Ducks fits and we expect that to be the case again this year. They are 5-2 the previous seven matchups and 0-3 the last three. While that run involves teams a lot more talented than this one, the same can be said for the Oregon side as well. Winning by double digits on the conference road is difficult. After two straight blowouts over Nevada and Montana, it's easy to see the Ducks coming into this one too overconfident. As for that Cardinals defense, they allowed just seven points in the lone home game, which was a win over Northwestern. After taking on two talented teams the past two weeks, the Cardinal will be more battle tested and prepared to give Oregon another fight to the end. Play on STANFORD AAA | |||||||
09-21-19 | Michigan State -8.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on MICHIGAN STATE This is a rare situation where everyone is piling on the underdog. That's because, admittedly, Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald has been excellent in the role. His Wildcats teams have gone 13-4-1 ATS the last 18 times they've gotten points and won 10 of the game straight up. Last year alone, they were an amazing 7-1-1 ATS getting points and won six of the games straight up. One of those upsets came against Michigan State, 29-19 (+11). Yet despite all of what you just read, a curious thing has happened here and that's the line has moved up (by several points) even though the majority of bets have come in on the Wildcats. We trust Mark Dantonio, off a loss last week to Arizona State, to get the job done here in this revenge spot. His Spartans actually have triple revenge here as they've been upset by Northwestern each of the last three seasons. Northwestern can't do it again, can they? This Wildcats team is nowhere near as strong as the one that pulled the upset last year in East Lansing. This Michigan State team is also much stronger than the one that lost its last trip into Evanston two years ago. Sparty's defense should rule the day in this one as they've given up just 34 points in three games. Northwestern was off a bye last week when it beat UNLV 30-14. In the first game, they could score only 7 points in a loss at Stanford, which now looks even worse. The road team is 12-4 SU and 14-2 ATS the last 16 meetings. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA | |||||||
09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State -7.5 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOISE STATE Boise State is back in the top 20 of the polls, but doesn't feel like its getting the respect it deserves here vs. Air Force. This is a home game, remember. The Broncos are 59-7 SU their L66 games on the blue turf. Maybe the win over Florida State that opened the season isn't as impressive now, considering how bleak things look down in Tallahassee. But you can bet Boise won't be taking Air Force lightly. While they've beaten the Flyboys each of the last two seasons, before that they'd actually lost three straight times to them. One of those was among the seven home losses that have occurred on this field in the past decade. This is going to be a tough spot for Air Force as they played an overtime game last week in Colorado, which saw them upset the favored Buffaloes. Boise State, meanwhile, had a virtual layup against Portland State. Air Force is obviously going to look to run the ball in this game, but so far the Boise State run defense has been very good. We like what we've seen from true freshman QB Hank Bachmeier as well. He's thrown 13 touchdown passes in three games while averaging 343 yards per game through the air. Rough spot on a short week for the underdog here and they are just 7-18-1 ATS their last 26 Mountain West games. Play on BOISE STATE AAA | |||||||
09-20-19 | White Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TIGERS +1.5 The Tigers made a bit of history last night and it's not the kind they should be proud of as they lost to the Indians for an 18th time this year. No team had ever lost 18 times to a single opponent in a given year before this (Tigers beat the Indians just once). There's the potential for a lot more infamous history to be made here as Detroit has been outscored by 306 runs over the course of the season. Taking them, in any situation, is tough to advise. But we will today as you can grab the +1.5 at a relatively decent price going against a White Sox team that is also among the worst in the league. Sure, the White Sox aren't as bad as the Tigers. But their own -141 scoring differential is bottom six in baseball and the idea of them winning a road game by multiple runs is not something you should ever bank on, even when matched up with the Tigers. They're sending a pitcher (Dylan Cease) with a 6.04 ERA and 1.58 WHIP to the mound tonight. Normally, that would be an easy fade on the money line, but we do have to be cautious about who Detroit has pitching too as Jordan Zimmerman is 1-11. But Zimmerman has pitched pretty decent for someone with that kind of record, at least in the second half, as he has a 1.11 WHIP his last seven starts. Play DETROIT on the RUN LINE (+1.5) AAA | |||||||
09-17-19 | Aces +8 v. Mystics | Top | 95-97 | Win | 102 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS In case you haven't been paying any attention, the WNBA playoffs have reached the semifinal round. Most experts agree that a Connecticut vs. Washington final is inevitable, but that also makes the underdogs in the two respective series somewhat valuable as they're going to be getting a lot of points. Case in point here with Las Vegas in Game 1 of the best of five series with top seeded Washington. The Aces got here thanks to a miraculous last second shot from Dearica Hamby, which gave them a 93-92 win over Chicago on Sunday. But they also have a 22-12 record. There aren't a ton of good teams in this league, but Las Vegas is one of them. So the Mystics laying so many points, after a long layoff, is trickier than it sounds. Might the team who finished the regular season with the best overall record come out a bit rusty? It's certainly possible. . Note that the Mystics are 0-4-1 ATS the last five times they've played on three or more days rest. Las Vegas did beat Washington earlier this year. It was with Elena Delle Donne out of the Mystics lineup, but that game was also here in Washington. The Aces are 7-3 ATS the last 10 meetings. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA | |||||||
09-16-19 | Browns -6 v. Jets | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND After a disastrous Week 1 performance, Cleveland has caught a major break here with Jets quarterback Sam Darnold being out due to mono. In his place, the Jets turn to Trevor Siemian, who was last seen guiding an anemic offense in Denver last season. It's not that Darnold is any kind of All-Pro, it's just that we think Siemian is that bad. But perhaps more concerning are the injuries on the defensive side of the ball for the Jets as LB CJ Mosley and DL Quennin Williams are both going to miss tonight's game. While it's true the Jets blew a 16-0 lead to the Bills last week, they were actually quite fortunate to even be in that position as Bills quarterback Josh Allen accounted for four first half turnovers. The Browns got a ton of offseason hype and know that another loss could mean the wheels will start coming off for rookie coach Freddie Kitchens. While the Jets may not have been as "unlucky" as you think they were last week, the Browns weren't as outclassed by the Titans as you might think in a 43-13 loss. It was still a two-point game very late in the third quarter. If they are able to cut down on their own mistakes (namely penalties!), we've seen how little a Darnold-led Jets offense can do. Now just imagine how poor they'll be with Siemian taking snaps. The Browns beat the Jets last year, thanks to Baker Mayfield coming in and leading a comeback. With him now fully embedded as the starter, look for a fast start by the Browns Monday night. Play CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
09-15-19 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Texans | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on JACKSONVILLE With a game that has such a low total, this sure is a lot of points for the Texans to be laying. Sure, disaster struck Jacksonville with quarterback Nick Foles going down with a collarbone injury in Week 1. Foles, the team's key free agent signing in the offseason, was supposed to help transform an offense that wasn't very good in 2018. Now it's rookie Gardner Minshew (Wash St) calling the shots. Still, it's a lot points. Houston is on working on a short week as they played Monday night in New Orleans. They lost that game in heartbreaking fashion after Saints QB Drew Brees drove his team down for the winning field goal. That came right after DeShaun Watson drove the Texans down the field for a temporary lead. Given the situation, this is too many points to lay with Houston. What if Minshew turns out not to be a liability? Against Kansas City, he actually completed 22 of his 25 pass attempts for 275 yards. That was in an emergency situation. The road team is on an 11-4-1 ATS run in this AFC rivalry, so we'll take the points. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA | |||||||
09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins +19.5 | Top | 43-0 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MIAMI It's only Week 2, but Miami already finds itself in a position where they are taking 18.5 points at home. If that seems preposterous, then you obviously missed last week's performance where they were clobbered 59-10 by Baltimore - at home. Getting matched up here with the Patriots, who looked as good as ever in wiping the mat with Pittsburgh last week (33-3 win), and it's no wonder Miami is one of the biggest single game underdogs we've seen in recent years. But they still are a professional team and this is way too many points NOT to take in the NFL. It was a few years ago that Jacksonville was getting even more points on the road against Peyton Manning and Denver. They easily covered the spread. Then there's this tidbit. New England has actually LOST five of the last six games in Miami (straight up) including each of the last two years. This is the biggest home dog we've seen since 2007 ... when New England failed to cover at Baltimore. The only larger September spread - of any kind - in NFL history was 1968 and the Jets (-20) actually the lost the game on the field to the Bills. You have to take the points in this situation. It's very hard to win on the road in this league, let alone by 20 points. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
09-14-19 | Oklahoma v. UCLA +24 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCLA The vultures are circling Chip Kelly right now as UCLA is 0-2 and the school is reportedly having to give tickets away for this home game, even though it's nationally televised and against Oklahoma. Now the matchup all but guarantees the Bruins will be 0-3. But while their fans may have given up on them, we will not. This is a lot of points, at home, for a team that many thought would be 2-0. Oklahoma might be a top five team, but they have a suspect defense that has really yet to be tested. In this situation, Kelly has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Expect him to go deep into his bag of tricks. The Sooners might have won the last seven games where they were road favorites. But they are also just 1-5-1 against the spread in those seven games. Before last week's loss to San Diego State, UCLA could usually be counted on for a solid performance in the Rose Bowl. This is an experienced team that Kelly brought back with more of his recruits. It's been incredible to see UCLA getting so many points when they were "only" getting 29 last year in Norman. They covered in that loss by a single point. Here they are at home, desperate, and should play better than we've seen the last two weeks, even though they are facing a superior side. Last year, the Bruins were getting 3 touchdowns at home against Top 10 Washington and only lost by seven points. Maybe its not that close here, but UCLA will stay within the number. Play on UCLA AAA | |||||||
09-14-19 | San Diego State v. New Mexico State +16 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NEW MEXICO STATE A week after a completely unimpressive 6-0 win over Weber State, San Diego State went to the Rose Bowl and upset UCLA 23-14 as 7.5-point underdogs. Explain that. It's tough to, though UCLA repeatedly shot itself in the foot. This week, the Aztecs will be the favorite, on the road. That's tricky for a team that scores so few points. It's a big number too. In its last 15 games, San Diego State has scored more than 24 points just four times and never more than 31. A big home game vs. Utah State next week promises to divert the Aztecs attention from this week's opponent. New Mexico State may not bring in a stellar resume, but after playing Washington State and Alabama to start its season, they definitely won't be intimidated. This is the home opener as well. The Aggies are a respectable 5-5 SU in Las Cruces the last two years. Even after last week's win, San Diego State is still just 4-8 its last 12 non-conference road games and that's straight up! Being -6 in turnovers vs. Alabama and Washington State did New Mexico State no favors. Let's assume they clean that up a bit and it's easy to see them being more competitive this week. Play on NEW MEXICO STATE AAA | |||||||
09-14-19 | East Carolina v. Navy -7 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 72 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NAVY Navy had an uncharacteristic season last year. They went 3-10, its worst record since 2002. You have to think the Midshipmen are shoo-ins to improve in 2019 and they've already gotten the season off to a positive start with a 45-7 win over Holy Cross. In that game, they ran for 428 yards. But perhaps more promising with them throwing for 103 yards. That's nothing for most teams. But Navy, who has run the triple option for years, was last in the country at 72.8 passs yards/game last year. They've promised to add elements of a run-and-shoot offense this year. Ken Niumatalolo totally retooled his coaching staff this year. Having a bye last week is another nice early season edge. East Carolina is a program in transition with a first year coach in Mike Houston. The Pirates also won three games last year, just like Navy, but there's no real history here of winning, at least recently. They've won just three games each of the last three years. They've gone 1-16 SU on the road, so this line being so short is a definite surprise. ECU has covered just 6 of the last 22 times it has been an underdog. They were beaten 34-6 at NC State in the opener. A 48-9 win last week over Gardner-Webb means little in the grand scheme. They've lost by an average of 24.5 points/game the last two times they played Navy. Play on NAVY AAA | |||||||
09-14-19 | Ohio State v. Indiana +17 | Top | 51-10 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on INDIANA So much for Urban Meyer. Ryan Day has Ohio State rolling at 2-0 with wins over Florida Atlantic (45-21) and Cincinnati (42-0). The Buckeyes defense obviously played better than the second game and QB Justin Fields, a transfer from Georgia, has looked great. But consider the talent gap between the Buckeyes and those first two opponents. Now OSU opens Big 10 play. Sure, it's against Indiana, but it's also on the road. The Hoosiers were actually more competitive in last year's game at Ohio Stadium than the final score shows. They did cover as 26-point dogs (final score was 49-26), but it was only an eight-point game at half and IU led in the second quarter. The Hoosiers are also off a shutout, 52-0 over Eastern Illinois, and beat Ball State 34-24 in the opener. So their offense is humming too. Last week was Indiana's biggest margin of victory in 25 years. After missing out on a bowl the last two years, you know this team is going to be motivated. They've come close to pulling a major upset in Big 10 play the last few years, but never finished the job. They have lost 10 times by seven points or less the four years in Big 10 play. Every year, at least one of those losses was to a Top 20 team. We're taking the points, especially with new starting quarterback Michael Penix, a freshman, looking so good. Play on INDIANA AAA | |||||||
09-13-19 | Kansas +21.5 v. Boston College | Top | 48-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KANSAS Les Miles knew it would be a tall mountain to climb when he took on the job at Kansas. After all, this is a program that had suffered through a miserable 6-42 record the previous four years under David Beatty. Through two games, Miles is 1-1 in Lawrence. The Jayhawks first game saw them rally (after blowing a double-digit lead) to beat an FCS opponent, Indiana State. Last week, they were competitive, but ultimately lost 12-7 to Coastal Carolina. Interestingly, KU scored on its opening drive, but never again. While there's obviously still a ton of room for growth here, no longer look for the Jayhawks to be the pushover they once were. Miles will have them playing hard. That's what makes this week's line at BC so interesting. The Eagles have scored more than anticipated the first two games. They hung 35 on Va Tech in a bit of an upset, then 45 more on Richmond last week. But the defense hasn't been as sound as it usually is. They allowed 442 yards vs. Va Tech, but got the benefit of five Hokies turnovers. Last week, even Richmond was able to attain 364 total yards. Yes, BC will be able to run the ball with the best of 'em. But so can Kansas with Pooka Williams Jr (99 yards last week) now back from suspension. With that BC defense, it's worth mentioning they have only three returning starters from last year. The Eagles have not been favored by more than three touchdown over a FBS team in the last five years. Play on KANSAS AAA | |||||||
09-12-19 | Brewers v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MIAMI +1.5 The Marlins have not won a game in this series, which wraps up early Thursday afternoon. We played Milwaukee in one of the previous three games (Tuesday), but that was before they lost Christian Yelich to a season-ending injury. Last night, they were able to win the first game without Yelich, but it wasn't easy as they needed a tie-breaking 2-run home run from Mike Moustakas in the top of the ninth. It was the Brewers sixth victory in a row. But coming back and winning a day game is going to be tough, even though their opponent is having a poor season. The good news here for Miami is that starter Caleb Smith pitches a lot better at home. He has a 3.19 ERA in 12 starts at Marlins Park and the team's record is 7-5! His last start was a great one as he tossed six shutout innings of four-hit ball. Despite what's gone down in this series so far, Milwaukee has not been a particularly good road team this year. They have a losing record away from Miller Park and have swept only two road series all year. One was back in April vs. Cincinnati, the other last month in Pittsburgh. But both series were only three games. Gio Gonzalez has a 5.54 ERA and 1.62 WHIP for Milwaukee his last three starts. Play MIAMI on the RUN LINE +1.5 AAA | |||||||
09-09-19 | Texans v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW ORLEANS The Saints laying less than a touchdown at home, in primetime? We'll take it! As you'll likely hear from many places, New Orleans has excelled in that very situation through the years. They almost never lose in primetime here at the Superdome and no matter what the line is they almost always cover. In fact, they are 24-11 in all primetime games since 2006, 22-8 when you exclude Thursday nights. Now you'll also hear about how the Saints are just 1-9 SU/ATS the first two weeks of the season the last five years, including 0-5 SU/ATS in season openers. They did lose outright as a big favorite last year to Tampa Bay, here at home. But look for that streak to get snapped in a major way Monday night. The Texans are just 4-10 ATS all-time on Monday Night Football. Having just traded Jadeveon Clowney, there are questions with this Houston defense. Drew Brees isn't about to let them figure it out either. Brees even got a new target this year in TE Jared Cook, who is coming off a career year in Oakland. Expect the Saints to be highly motivated for this game after the way last season ended. Houston isn't exactly known for starting the season well. They opened 0-3 last year. Winning in this building is hard and we just don't see the Texans being able to do it. They are just 3-7-1 ATS their last 11 road games while the home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times these teams have met. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA | |||||||
09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on the Steelers (FIRST HALF) Think the Steelers miss Antonio Brown at this point? Ha! Lost in last year's disappointing season was the fact the Black and Gold earned a rare win over the Patriots. They beat them 17-10 at home in Week 15. The win snapped a five-game losing streak to the Patriots. Having rid themselves of Brown's antics, the Steelers should be a more focused and better team this year. We look for them to cover the first half line here. Pittsburgh is the last time to beat New England. More worrisome then Ben Roethlisberger losing Brown is Tom Brady losing Rob Gronkowski. New England's offense just wasn't as productive the last couple years when Gronk was out. On defense, the Steelers may finally have found a replacement for Ryan Shazier by drafting Devin Bush. By the way, they were a perfect 5-0 ATS as underdogs last season, winning four of the games straight up. Among the areas Pittsburgh will be improved in is turnover margin. They were -11 last year. Teams with a bad turnover margin usually see that number improve the following season. Expect the Steelers defense to be better this year and the Patriots defense to be worse. We expect the Steelers to be ahead at halftime, or at least covering. Play PITTSBURGH 1st Half AAA | |||||||
09-08-19 | Ravens -6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 59-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BALTIMORE Probably the easiest call on the first Sunday of the NFL season would be taking the Ravens to beat the Dolphins. Now there's a pointspread in play here obviously and that number has come up (by several points) since it opener. But Miami is going to be so bad that this year that the line move hardly scares us. Remember what happened in Week 1 last year? Baltimore was facing a Buffalo team that - at the time - many thought could be the worst in the league. The Ravens won that game 47-3! Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting for the Dolphins, which doesn't sound very promising. This team is clearly tanking this year, which is why it recently traded away Laremy Tunsil, Kiko Alonso and Kenny Stills despite not having adequate replacements. If all goes according to plan in Miami, they will end up with the first pick in the Draft next April. If all goes according to plan in Baltimore, they will be back in the playoffs. Lamar Jackson took over at QB in the middle of last season and that's when the Ravens went on their run. Jackson should have a big game here - both running and throwing - against a Miami defense that will struggle to stop anybody this year. Baltimore is on an 8-3 SU/ATS run in Week 1 games where it has allowed an average of just 14.9 points. Play on BALTIMORE AAA | |||||||
09-07-19 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -6 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OLE MISS Ole Miss takes on Arkansas here in the SEC opener for the both teams. The way each team chose to open its season was very different. Ole Miss went on the road to play a Memphis team that may be as good as any in the Group of Five. They lost, 15-10, but looked a lot better in the second half. Arkansas, fresh off a 2-10 year, opened against Portland State and only won 20-13. So despite winning, the Razorbacks were probably the less impressive side in Week 1. That's certainly affected our read on this Week 2 matchup, which takes place in Oxford and that's not a good deal for the Hogs. They have lost their last eight SEC openers by an average of three touchdowns. They didn't win a single time on the road last year and lost to Ole Miss 37-33 at home. They've lost eight of their last nine road games as well. Despite only gaining 173 yards of offense last week, the Rebels need not hang their heads as the defense pitched a shutout in the second half. The offense got the ball back down 13-10, but got hit with a safety and never saw the ball again. Don't expect them to take Arkansas lightly here. Before last year, the Rebels had lost four straight times to the Hogs and they've lost the last three times to them at home. Not this year. We believe in the new coordinators in Oxford (Rich Rodriguez, Mike MacIntyre) and they'll get their first win this week. Play on OLE MISS AAA | |||||||
09-07-19 | Southern Miss v. Mississippi State -16.5 | Top | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MISSISSIPPI STATE Mississippi State is expected to take a step back this season. They lost a lot of talent (to the NFL) from a defense that allowed just 13.2 points/game a year ago. It doesn't help that they have two holdovers currently suspended as well. Last week, they gave up 28 points to a Louisiana Lafayette team that quite frankly isn't very good. 28 points was the most allowed in any game by MSU last year. They allowed more than 20 just two times. But on the bright side, the defense forced five turnovers last week, the offense scored 38 points and the team won. We look for the defense to play a lot better this week against Southern Miss. Something to consider is that last week's game was played in New Orleans. Mississippi State is 11-3 ATS its last 14 games in Starkville. Southern Miss played a tune-up game against Alcorn State, but that will hardly have them ready for this step up in class. The Golden Eagles only could run for 96 yards on 31 carries and thus actually lost the time of possession battle. If they can't push around an FCS opponent, how are they going to get a surge against a SEC defense? The answer is "they won't." Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE AAA | |||||||
09-07-19 | Ohio v. Pittsburgh -4 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PITT Ohio might not be a program you pay much attention to, but the Bobcats have achieved plenty of success in the 15 years Frank Solich has been here in Athens. Solich is actually the third longest tenured head coach in College Football, trailing only Gary Patterson (19 years) at TCU and Kirk Ferentz (21 years). The Bobcats have actually gotten some run as the team to come out of the Group of Five this year, but this week's game is one of two where they'll definitely be the underdog (the other is next week's game at Marshall). The key to this team is QB Nathan Rourke. The offense averaged 40 points/game with him at the helm last year. But only three other starters from that offense are back. Despite losing 30-14 to Virginia last week, Pitt is going to be an improved team this year. The Panthers led that game at halftime, only to get shutout in the 2nd half. It was a sloppy effort, one that saw them turn the ball over twice, get a punt blocked and not protect the QB well. We look for Pat Narduzzi's team to clean things up a bit as they can't afford to start the year with consecutive losses at home as there's game at Penn State looming next weekend. Ohio won't be able to pressure Pitt QB Pickett as much as Virginia did and thus it'll be a lot better day for the Panthers offense. Play on PITT AAA | |||||||
09-06-19 | Wake Forest v. Rice +19.5 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on RICE Wake Forest came into the year with some hype and made good on it to some degree by winning its season opener 38-35 over Utah State. The spread closed at -4.5, so the Demon Deacons ended up not covering the number and now they find themselves in even rarer territory. It's three scores that they are laying to the Rice Owls Friday night, on the road. Wake Forest has only been a road favorite three times for current coach Dave Clawson, who is in his sixth-year at Winston-Salem. Their ATS record in those games is 0-3. This will be the first time they are laying double digits on the road since the 2008 season opener against Baylor, who went into that game with a first year starter named Robert Griffin III. So it's been awhile. Rice obviously isn't very good, but they held their own last week against Army, losing only 14-7 as a 23-point underdog. They did give up 231 yards rushing, but that came on 56 carries. Wake Forest ran for 178 yards last week, on 58 carries, or just 3.1 yards per attempt. That's not very good. If Rice was able to defend Army's triple option, then they should stymie Wake Forest's ground game too and stay well within the number. Play on RICE AAA | |||||||
09-05-19 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON -1.5 (Run Line) Believe it or not, but there was a time early in the season when Seattle was ahead of Houston in the American League West standings. The Mariners started 13-2 out of the gate while Houston was only 10-5 through its first 15 games. Things have obviously gone quite differently since then. Seattle is just 45-80 since while Houston has gone 80-45, leading to a 32 game gap in the standings entering this series. We expect things to go very well on Friday for the Astros, so much so that we'll gladly lay the -1.5 on the run line here. Wade Miley, who has a 20-8 team start record, gets the nod tonight. He has a 3.86 ERA in four starts vs. Seattle this year which includes a win the last time he faced them. Miley has won seven straight decisions coming into tonight. Remember that Houston still has a lot to play for, namely home field advantage. Seattle has nothing left to play for and is an abysmal 1-12 vs. the Astros this year. Their starter for Friday, Marco Gonzales, has really struggled against Houston in his career. He's 0-4 with a 7.50 ERA. Houston is 51-17 at home and 16-3 after an off day. The Mariners a 4-12 as road dogs of +175 to +250. Should be a very easy win for the home team in this one. Play HOUSTON -1.5 on the RUN LINE AAA | |||||||
09-03-19 | Mystics v. Liberty +15 | Top | 93-77 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW YORK The Liberty are catching a ton of points Tuesday and are at home against the Mystics. Yes, we fully realize where each team is at in the standings right now, but it's just too many points to lay on the road. Even with the best record in the league, Washington is only outscoring teams by 11.8 points/game this year. They've won eight of nine and did beat the Liberty by 29 a little over a week ago. As for the Liberty, they've lost four in a row and went 1-11 in August. But still ... you just don't see WNBA team asked to lay this many points on the road very often. The Mystics scoring differential shrinks to +4.3 points per game on the road as they give up 80 PPG. So they are nowhere near as dominant on the road. This is their second road game in four days. They're short-handed with starter Kristi Toliver and backup PG Ariel Atkins both injured. As bad as things have gotten for the Liberty, they'll show up today. Play on NEW YORK AAA | |||||||
09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville +18.5 | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOUISVILLE Notre Dame is laying a lot of points in this season opener, but based on how they and Louisville performed in 2018, that's no surprise. The Fighting Irish finished 12-1, the only defeat coming at the hands of Clemson in the CFP. Louisville won just two games (lost 10!) with one of those coming against a FCS program. The other was by three over Western Kentucky, a game that they were favored to win by 17 points. Nine straight losses to end the season means there's a new coach on campus as Scott Satterfield comes over from Appalachian State. Perhaps the biggest indictment on Louisville's 2018 season is that they finished 1-11 ATS, the worst such mark in the country. They'll obviously be better in 2019 as Sattefield has a lot of returning talent to work with, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but also at quarterback. Meanwhile, you should look for Notre Dame to slip a bit this year. They had a really lucky record in close games last year, going 7-0 in those decided by eight points or less. While we would be shocked if Louisville won this game, it is a hefty number the Cardinals are getting due mainly to last year's poor effort. But it's a new coach, a new season and we expect them to perform a lot better at the betting window. The Irish were never asked to lay more than 11 points away from South Bend last year. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA | |||||||
09-02-19 | Edmonton +3.5 v. Calgary | Top | 9-25 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on EDMONTON Edmonton has revenge on the mind as they lost the first "Battle of Alberta" of 2019. It took place four weeks ago as they came to Calgary actually slightly favored and lost 24-18. The Eskimos defense, as per usual, did its job in allowing just 227 yards. No defense is allowing less yards/game in the league this year. But the difference in that prior meeting was a 103-yard kickoff return by Calgary's Terry Williams. The Edmonton offense was also held scoreless for the first half. We don't expect that to happen again and look for the Eskimos to shore the special teams up as well. The big story coming into this game is the return of QB Bo Levi Mitchell for the Stampeders. Calgary has lost two in a row going into last week's bye and the time off made Mitchell returning here a logical landing point. But will he be the same Bo Levi Mitchell that we're accustomed to seeing? Don't think so. Not against this defense. Edmonton lost last week despite holding a substantial edge in yards, so don't look for them to roll out the welcome mat for Mitchell. The Eskimos have covered 4 of the last 5 times that they've been off an ATS loss. As for the Stampeders, they are 0-4 ATS the last four times they've been off a straight up loss. Bottom line is that recent history shows Edmonton is more likely to bounce back and don't expect Mitchell to come in and dominate in his return. Play on EDMONTON AAA | |||||||
08-31-19 | Oregon v. Auburn -3 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on AUBURN The lone battle of ranked teams this weekend pits #11 Oregon against #16 Auburn in Arlington, Texas. Typically, these Pac 12 vs. SEC matchups have not gone well for the former conference and that's a trend we expect to continue Saturday night. Auburn seems like it's being slightly underrated coming into the year. It was just the opposite last year and they still opened by beating Washington in the first game. Washington was regarded as being the Pac 12's best last year and now that distinction probably falls on Oregon. But we're not convinced the Ducks are the 11th best team in the country, despite QB Justin Herbert and almost the rest of the offense returning. Consider this: Oregon has lost 13 of its last 18 games away from Autzen Stadium. Auburn is probably being underrated because of its five losses last year, but three of those were upsets and the other two against Georgia and Alabama. The season ended on a high note with a 63-14 demolition of Purdue in the bowl game. The Tigers have won six straight neutral site games vs. the Pac 12 including the 2010 National Championship vs. Oregon. Not as much on the line this time, but it'll be the same result with the SEC reigning surpreme. Play on AUBURN AAA | |||||||
08-31-19 | Virginia Tech -4 v. Boston College | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on VIRGINIA TECH The ACC didn't waste anytime getting the conference play going as this is one of three games on the slate this weekend. The conference is considered to be "Clemson and everyone else" this year and we saw that Thursday with the Tigers thumping Georgia Tech as expected. But Saturday's two games are expected to be a lot closer. This one, we think might not end up being so close. Virginia Tech is a team that should be better in 2019 after slipping to 6-7 last year. Boston College, not so much, even though they return both QB Brown and RB Dillon. The key to us in this game is on the defensive side of the ball. For his 23rd and final season as the defensive coordinator in Blacksburg, Bud Foster has 10 starters back from last year. After allowing 31 points/game last year, the Hokies defense should get back to business in 2019. On the flip side, Boston College has just three defensive starters back. This is a revenge game for VT as they lost 31-21 last year to the Eagles. Boston College scored 28 unanswered points to end the game. ACC road openers have gone well for the Hokies as they've won 13 of their past 15 as well as three consecutive season openers. The road team is actually on a 4-1 run in this rivalry. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA | |||||||
08-30-19 | Oklahoma State v. Oregon State +16 | Top | 52-36 | Push | 0 | 657 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OREGON STATE Oregon State isn't exactly well-regarded, so the fact they are taking more than two touchdowns from Oklahoma State can't be too surprising. But this could be the year the Beavers at least make some sort of "mini-leap" forward after winning a total of just three games the previous two seasons. This is the second season for coach Smith in Corvallis. The Beavers are one of the 10 most experienced teams in the country coming into 2019. Not that we think Oregon State wins here, but OK State probably isn't as good as they're being made out to be. The Cowboys slipped to seven wins in 2018 as they were upset five different times. Laying this many to a Power 5 opponent from a different conference seems tricky. In fact, the last time OK State traveled to face a Pac 12 team was 2012 and they lost 59-38 at Arizona. Again, there are probably going to be a lot of points scored in this game. OK State's defensive line is a concern, so that's something the Beaver offense should take full advantage of. The Cowboys offense has no experience at QB with a freshman (Spencer Sanders) likely starting, on the road no less. Jake Luton is back in his second year starting for Oregon State. This game will end up being close. Play on OREGON STATE AAA | |||||||
08-29-19 | Cardinals v. Broncos -1 | Top | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER The Broncos won the Hall of Fame Game, coming from behind to defeat Atlanta 14-10. But they haven't won since. It's been three straight losses and they haven't scored more than 15 points in game. While that may not sound like a rousing endorsement, luckily they'll face a downtrodden Arizona team here. The Cardinals haven't done much in the preseason either nor should they be expected to do much in the regular season. Like Denver, the Cards won their first preseason game, but haven't won since. Last week they could manage only nine points in a loss to Minnesota. Rookie Kyler Murray has struggled. But the defense could be a greater concern as it has given up 366 yards/game including 166 on the ground, which is the most any team has allowed. They've sustained some injuries too; on both sides of the ball. Denver has an ongoing battle for the backup QB job, which means there's motivation. Drew Lock will get the start, followed by Brett Rypien and Kevin Hogan. With a rookie head coach (Vic Fangio) looking to impress the home crowd, that's another reason the Broncos will care more. Play on DENVER AAA | |||||||
08-29-19 | Dolphins v. Saints -3.5 | Top | 16-13 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NEW ORLEANS Were these teams to play in the regular season, the line would obviously be a lot higher. While we're not getting nearly the same Saints team here, we'll still gladly lay the points. The Saints' backups looked pretty impressive in last week's 28-13 win over the Jets. Miami is very likely to be the worst team in the league this year. So a game featuring nothing but their reserves figures to be a very unimpressive performance. The Dolphins have yet to decide on a starting QB for the regular season. It will end up being either Josh Rosen or Ryan Fitzpatrick, neither of whom figures to perform well for a bad team. The Saints backup QBs - Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater - figure to do a better job here than their Miami counterparts. The Saints ran for over 300 yards in the first two preseason games and should be effective doing that again here. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA | |||||||
08-29-19 | UCLA +3.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -115 | 629 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on UCLA You may be surprised by how short this line is, not to mention the way it has been bet, but don't be. Yes, UCLA won just three games in year one under Chip Kelly. But Kelly can take solace in the job his colleague Luke Fickell did last year with Cincinnati, taking them from 4 to 11 wins. No one saw that coming from the Bearcats and while they look good on paper entering 2019, UCLA has the most returning starters in the country (19) and should be a whole lot better in Kelly's 2nd year. The Bruins have had problems winning away from the Rose Bowl in recent season, but look for that to change this year. Something to keep in mind is that these teams opened last season against one another as well. Cincinnati won 26-17, as a 14-point underdog. A couple key differences here for UCLA is that Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the starting QB (wasn't the case last year) and the emergence of RB Joshua Kelley. Look for the Bruins to put up a lot more points in this year's meeting. Similarly, their defense is better than it was a year ago now that 10 starters are back. Cincinnati's offensive line is down two starters from last season. The Bearcats have failed to cover six of the last seven times they've been a home favorite of three points or less. Play on UCLA AAA | |||||||
08-29-19 | Steelers v. Panthers +4 | Top | 19-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CAROLINA Carolina has been bet from favorite to underdog in this final preseason matchup and we don't have the foggiest idea why. It's not like Pittsburgh has any special motivation to win tonight. Sure, a win tonight would mean a perfect 4-0 preseason for the Black & Gold, but it's not like that means anything. The last two weeks have brought low-scoring victories over Kansas City (17-7) and Tennessee (18-6). We don't expect much more in the way of scoring from Pittsburgh here, so laying points with them isn't a great idea. They haven't been favored since failing to cover against Tampa Bay in the first preseason game. The Panthers got a scare last week with Cam Newton hurting his ankle in an ugly 10-3 loss to New England. Newton should still be good to go for the regular season opener, but the rest of the team will be motivated here to erase the memory of last week's poor effort. Play on CAROLINA AAA | |||||||
08-25-19 | Steelers v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 18-6 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on Tennessee Look for the Titans to handle their business at home in this preseason affair. This will be their last home game before the regular season. Last week they lost to New England 22-17 as three-point favorites. There's a very real QB competition here in Tennessee with Marcus Mariota trying to hold off Ryan Tannehill. Both will be motivated to look good in this dress rehearsal game. Pittsburgh is 2-0, coming off two wins at home. They beat Tampa 30-28 and Kansas City 17-7. They're feeling pretty comfortable heading into the regular season and really have nothing to prove here. The Titans did win the preseason opener, 27-10 over the Eagles, and should have a performance more closely resembling that one with starters playing longer this week. Look for Tennessee to move to 14-6-1 ATS their L21 preseason home games. Play on TENNESSEE AAA | |||||||
08-24-19 | Hamilton v. BC +3.5 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 98 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BRITISH COLUMBIA British Columbia is having a rough year. The Lions are 1-8 and in last place in the Western Division. Their only win was 18-17 over Toronto, thanks to a rouge. The Argos were winless at the time and sport the same 1-8 record as the Lions. While things won't get any easier for B.C. (hosting East-leading Hamilton) this week, we believe they're up for the challenge. Just two weeks ago, they only lost by one point to the Ti-Cats and that was in Ontario. B.C. outgained Hamilton in the contest, 437-355 and even led 34-19 at the start of the 4th quarter. But it was not to be as the Ti-Cats mounted a tremendous comeback. That was Hamilton's first game without QB Masoli and the offense didn't look too good last week in a 21-7 win at Ottawa. It didn't help British Columbia that they were -3 in turnovers in that last game vs. Hamilton. Look for them to play a cleaner game at home with the revenge angle still fresh in their minds. Hamilton is just 1-4 ATS its last five visits to British Columbia. Grab the points! Play on BRITISH COLUMBIA AAA | |||||||
08-24-19 | Saints v. Jets +3 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -105 | 77 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the JETS Given how the Saints tend to treat these preseason affairs, we're not sure why they are now road favorites against the Jets. New Orleans did win last week's game, 19-17 over the Chargers, but it was hardly an impressive effort as they had to rally late from a 17-3 second half deficit. Needless to say, the Chargers best defensive players weren't on the field when the comeback took place. Now the Jets' first-teamers won't be out their late either, but whomever is should at least be able to hold a lead. This is the Jets' first official home game under Adam Gase, though they did play the Giants here at the Meadowlands in Week 1 and lost 31-22. Things went better last week in a 22-10 win over Atlanta, but Gase is still probably focused on getting that first win in front of the Jets faithful. New Orleans is on a much shorter week here with two less days to prepare. Though the Jets offense hasn't looked great thus far, starters are going to play more this week. That includes center Ryan Kalil, who will be making his debut. The Saints were lucky to win last week. They won't be so lucky here as they drop to 0-6 ATS their last six preseason affairs. Play on the JETS AAA | |||||||
08-23-19 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -140 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ARIZONA +1.5 We'll grab Arizona on the run line here as they'd won three in a row prior to Wednesday's home loss to Colorado. Meanwhile, Milwaukee had lost three in a row prior to winning Wednesday in a rain-shortened game. The Diamondbacks actually play better on the road as their scoring average jumps to 5.5 runs/game from 4.9 at home. This is a huge series with both teams desperately trying to get into Wild Card position. Run differential says - that despite an inferior record - Arizona has played better this year as they have outscored opponents by 64 runs. Milwaukee has a -35 run differential. Brewers starter Lyles has a 7.23 ERA in 20 previous appearances vs. Arizona. Merrill Kelly was quite decent in his last start for the Dbax, pitching five-plus innings and allowing only one run. Play ARIZONA +1.5 AAA | |||||||
08-23-19 | Browns v. Bucs +3 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 56 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY As if it weren't already patently obvious, the Browns are officially now this year's "trendy" team with their appearance on this week's cover of Sports Illustrated. Bettors have actually lined up to bet against the Browns in each of the first two weeks of preseason, but both times that proved to be ill-advised. Cleveland is 2-0 with wins over Indianapolis and Washington. The public has taken notice, betting the Browns to road favorites for this week's tilt with Tampa Bay, who won but did not cover last week in Bruce Arians' home debut. Interestingly enough, the Bucs rallied late in both games so far. The first week, they did not win, but did steal the cover in Pittsburgh. Starters see their most action in the third game, which may seem to favor the Browns here, but don't disregard how hard Tampa Bay has been playing late in these games. They've ended up outgaining both previous opponents, something that the Browns can't say as they were outgained last week. Four turnovers aided them in the Washington game as well. Look for the Bucs to play cleaner and harder and to move to 6-1-1 ATS their last eight preseason contests. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
08-21-19 | Indians +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND +1.5 Don't be fooled by the Indians losing 9-2 to the Mets on Tuesday. An embarrassing error (aren't they all?) in the outfield turned out to open the flood gates for Mets in the sixth innings and they took complete advantage. With the game tied 2-2, Cleveland's Oscar Mercado dropped a fly ball. The next at-bat saw Michael Conforto homer and from there, the Mets would tack on five more runs. Who knows how last night's game would have turned out had Mercado simply made the routine play. It's water under the bridge now, but don't expect Cleveland to forget easily. We can't endorse the Mets going from underdogs last night to favorites here as the price change simply doesn't make sense to us. Marcus Stroman has a 3-0 TSR for the Mets, but his ERA and WHIP in those three starts are 5.17 and 1.85. So it's not like Stroman has pitched well for his new team. Here's a tidbit for you: the Indians have not lost consecutive games by multiple runs this month. With Adam Plutko on the mound Wednesday night, look for that streak to continue as the Tribe either win or lose by just a single run. The offense was just 1 for 10 with runners in scoring position last night and should fare better in that situation tonight as well. Play CLEVELAND (+1.5) on the RUN LINE AAA | |||||||
08-20-19 | Liberty +5 v. Fever | Top | 82-76 | Win | 100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW YORK New York lost its eighth straight game on Sunday, falling to the short-handed Phoenix Mercury by a score of 78-72. Equally as bad is that they just missed out on getting the cash as five-point underdogs. It was a similar story two nights prior when they lost in Dallas by six and were getting four from the oddsmakers. The last game saw the Liberty fall apart in the fourth quarter, getting outscored 28-18. But that's nothing compared to what happened to the Indiana Fever on Sunday. The Fever lost 107-68 to the Mystics, allowing a WNBA record 18 made three-pointers. It was the latest disastrous defensive effort for a team that has dropped 7 of 10 overall. We don't like the notion of Indiana laying this many points, given the recent defensive ineptitude. Also, what happened defensively in that last game also masks the fact the Fever scored only 68 points. Play on NEW YORK AAA | |||||||
08-18-19 | Liberty +5.5 v. Mercury | Top | 72-78 | Loss | -103 | 8 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW YORK The Liberty have the second worst record in the league right now. They are 8-17 after taking seven straight losses. They're 0-6 ATS in August. They're 1-10 straight up since beating Phoenix 80-76 on July 5th as 7.5-point underdogs. The Mercury are a short-handed bunch right now with Brittney Griner still suspended and Diana Taurasi still injured. If not for an 18-4 second half run Friday, they probably would not have beaten the Atlanta Dream, who have the worst record in the league. The Mercury have not won back to back games in over a month. They'd dropped three in a row before the win over Atlanta. Only one day of rest between games isn't an idea situation for Phoenix either. They are just 3-7 ATS the last 10 times in that role. The Liberty are in the same spot, with just one day of rest between games, but they should come out more desperate. Play on NEW YORK AAA | |||||||
08-17-19 | Cowboys v. Rams +3.5 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the RAMS We know the Rams basically showed up to Oakland only because they had to last week, turning in a non-existent effort in a 14-3 loss to the Raiders. But the line for this week's game with Dallas (in Hawaii) has jumped the fence and moved dramatically more than what you typically see for any NFL contest - regular season or preseason. It's opened up some nice value on the Rams as their opponents this week, the Cowboys, haven't won a preseason game since 2017. Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has a 12-22 SU record in the preseason, so him being bet to the role of favorite seems confusing. Rams coach Sean McVay didn't play a single starter last week. Because of the poor effort, we're likely to see some this week, even if it's not the Pro Bowlers. Dallas didn't score a touchdown in its preseason opener. QB Dak Prescott may be limited here due to injuries on the offensive line. Ezekiel Elliott remains a hold out and WR Amari Cooper is injured. Take advantage of this line move, which makes no sense. Play on LA RAMS AAA | |||||||
08-16-19 | Bears v. Giants -2 | Top | 13-32 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the GIANTS The Giants certainly looked impressive in the first preseason game. They racked up over 400 yards in the annual tussle with the Jets, which they won 31-22. Perhaps most notable was rookie QB Daniel Jones leading the offense into the end zone on his only drive. If not for a weather delay, Jones very well may have stayed in the game longer. Regardless, it was still a much better showing than what the Bears delivered in their preseason opener. They lost to Carolina 23-13 at home. QB Mitchell Trubisky also played just a series, but accomplished nothing as it was a three-and-out with all handoffs. Trubisky isn't likely to see a ton of action in Friday's game either. Jones will likely play more for the Giants. For Chicago, there just aren't many positional battles (outside of kicker!) and thus the reserves won't be as motivated. Going into the regular season as healthy as possible is priority #1 in the Windy City. The Giants will want this one more. They are 5-2-1 ATS their last eight preseason games. Play on NEW YORK AAA | |||||||
08-15-19 | Jets v. Falcons -1 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA The Falcons have played two games, but have zero wins as they dropped the Hall of Fame Game to Denver, 14-10, and then lost 34-27 to Miami last week in a sloppy effort. That makes it 10 straight preseason losses under Dan Quinn, which might seem to demonstrate a whole new level of apathy towards these preseason affairs. However, with Matt Ryan scheduled to take a few snaps this week (his 1st action of the preseason), we are expecting a more inspired effort as the Falcons play at home for the first time. They led the HOF Game with under two minutes to play, but a Matt Schaub interception led to the game winning score for Denver. Last week, it was tied going into the final two minutes. So both games have seen Atlanta lose late. Schaub looked better last week (172 yards), which is important seeing as Ryan won't be on the field long. The Jets lost last week as the defense gave up 31 points and over 400 yards to the Giants. Adam Gase chose to rest a number of his starters and the same should hold true again this week. We believe that the Falcons are really eager to snap this preseason losing streak of theirs. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
08-14-19 | Sun v. Mercury +5.5 | Top | 78-71 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHOENIX Connecticut has the second best record in the league right now at 16-8 straight up, but they're caught laying a pretty big number in Phoenix tonight. Now the Mercury will be without leading scorer Brittney Griner (suspended), a big loss, but it's not something they can't overcome with a little help here from the oddsmakers. While only 11-12 SU overall, Phoenix is 7-3 SU at home. Connecticut has dropped two in a row and this will be their 4th straight road game. This trip began 10 days ago in New York and ends tonight in Phoenix and the last two games have each seen the Sun give up 89 points, the most they've allowed in any game all year. Note that Phoenix played the Sun tough earlier this month, with Griner missing the entire second half and only lost by six points. That was up in Connecticut. It should be a more competitive game tonight in the desert as the Mercury have covered four straight against the Eastern Conference (including that game in Connecticut) and are 7-1 ATS their last eight games vs. the Sun. Connecticut is 2-8 ATS its last 10 road games. Play on PHOENIX AAA | |||||||
08-13-19 | Cubs v. Phillies +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* Run Line play on PHILLIES +1.5 This is a great price to grab an extra 1.5 runs against the Cubs, who have proven to be not very good on the road. They could only manage a split with the feisty Reds over the weekend and were actually outscored over the four games. They're only 23-35 for the year on the road and have a losing record (5-6) as a favorite of -125 to -175. As for the Phillies, they are badly in need of a victory after dropping five of their last six. This slide has them down in fourth place in their own division, but they're still only two back of the Wild Card. They'll be going up against Jose Quintana tonight and he has a 5.29 ERA in three previous starts in Philadelphia. His ERA (surprise, surprise) is higher on the road than it is at home. Jason Vargas will be making his third start for the Phillies since being traded from the Mets and he is 3-0 lifetime vs. the Cubs. The Cubs have not won any of their last 11 road series, by the way. Play PHILADELPHIA +1.5 AAA | |||||||
08-09-19 | Ottawa +9.5 v. Edmonton | Top | 12-16 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on OTTAWA The Redblacks got a much needed win last week by going into Montreal and coming out ahead 28-27 as 6.5 point underdogs. That snapped a four-game losing streak. We believe that it's critical to point out that three of those four losses came at the hands of Winnipeg or Calgary, arguably the two best teams in the league right now. All three Ottawa wins this seasons have come by four points or less, but they're underdogs again this week and that's a role that has suited them quite well. The Redblacks are 3-1 ATS as dogs this season and won two of the games outright. Here they'll be catching Edmonton one week removed from losing to provincial rival Calgary in a hard fought game. Could this be a "letdown" spot for the Eskimos? We're willing to bank that it will be. Three of Edmonton's four wins this year have come against Toronto and B.C., who are a combined 2-12 straight up and the other was in Week 1 against a Montreal team that was the worst in the league last year. Grab the points in this one. Play on OTTAWA AAA | |||||||
08-09-19 | Vikings +2.5 v. Saints | Top | 34-25 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MINNESOTA The Vikings will never forget their 2017 playoff win over the Saints. A Google search of "The Miracle of Minneapolis" will quickly remind you of what transpired there. The Saints did gain a measure of revenge by coming here last year and winning a regular season game 30-20, but once again their season ended in heartbreak thanks to some questionable officiating in the NFC Championship Game. New Orleans plays host to the latest Vikings-Saints tussle and far less is on the line compared to two years ago as it's only preseason. That means no Drew Brees for the Saints (hasn't taken a preseason snap since 2016) and little of Kirk Cousins for the Vikings. But we look for the Purple People Eaters to get the job done Friday as the Saints are unlikely to take this game very seriously. NO has failed to cover all four preseason home games the last two years. The two years before that saw them go a combined 0-8 in preseason games. Play on MINNESOTA AAA | |||||||
08-08-19 | Broncos v. Seahawks +3 | Top | 14-22 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SEATTLE Our favorite play on the Thursday NFLX card is Seattle, who is now GETTING points at most shops for some reason. Denver did win the Hall of Fame Game, but was largely unimpressive in doing so. They got a late turnover and converted it into a game-winning touchdown with less than 90 seconds left. Prior to that, the Broncos offense had gained just 150 total yards. Seattle was winless in the preseason last year, so expect them to be motivated. Last year aside, Pete Carroll has been a great bet in these preseason games, going 22-14 SU including three perfect years, the most recent coming in 2017. This game is in Seattle, so the Seahawks ought to be more motivated to win one in front of the fans. We just don't think the Denver QB situation is very good right now behind Joe Flacco and quite honestly, we're not sure Flacco is any good. The Seahawks have strong group of running backs, which means they should be able to move the ball throughout the game, no matter whom is in at quarterback. Play on SEATTLE AAA | |||||||
08-08-19 | Mercury v. Sparks -6 | Top | 74-84 | Win | 100 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LOS ANGELES The Sparks (LA) come into this one on a three-game win streak. They've covered in all three wins as well. The last two have come at home where they'll play again Thursday, hosting Phoenix. The visiting Mercury come in on a 5-game ATS win streak. They've lost two of those games though, both on the road. Phoenix has lost eight straight here at the Staples Center, a terrible sign for tonight. They did play their best game of the season over the weekend, beating Washington 103-82. But don't look for the Mercury to be that hot again as they shot 58.2% from the field in that easy victory. For the year, they shoot barely 40% on the road. This is a revenge spot for the Sparks after losing by 10 early in the season at Phoenix. They've gone 8-3 ATS the last 11 games and are 22-8-1 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA | |||||||
08-08-19 | Redskins v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 19 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND Few teams come into the 2019 season with more hype than the Browns. When's the last time anyone said that? But given how the team improved over the 2nd half of the 2018 season and the addition of Odell Beckham Jr (plus several key additions on the defensive side of the ball), the optimism surrounding the team is probably justified. Freddie Kitchens was largely credited with the improvement we saw from QB Baker Mayfield throughout his rookie season and that earned him the head coaching job. Tonight is Kitchens' 1st home game as Browns coach. It comes against a Redskins team that has more questions than answers right now. We're not sure what the reason is for the substantial swing in the line here, but there's definitely value on the Browns now. Washington doesn't really have a starting QB right now as the job will go to either Colt McCoy or Case Keenum before rookie Dwayne Haskins eventually takes over. The Browns have won 7 of their 8 preseason games the last two years and will be motivated to win this one for Kitchens. Play on CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
08-07-19 | Liberty +8 v. Sky | Top | 92-101 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW YORK The Liberty have lost six of their last seven coming into tonight, so they're big underdogs in Chicago. This is a revenge game as the lost here in the Windy City, 99-83, last month. But they were only 3.5 point underdogs for that game. The line is much higher now. Why? Well, they did lose by 16 in that last meeting and also lost to the Sky by eight at home earlier in the season. Then you have the losing streak. Chicago has won five of its last six, the only loss coming at Connecticut as seven-point underdogs. However, we feel this is an inflated number. The Sky actually trailed by double digits in the first half of their last game, which ended up being an 87-75 win over a bad Atlanta team. But laying this many points to a desperate NY team seems like a bad idea. Play NEW YORK AAA | |||||||
08-07-19 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ST. LOUIS +1.5 Needless to say, this series has gone a lot differently for the Cardinals than the one where they hosted the Dodgers back in April. We can't say we're surprised by that. After all, we did win with the Dodgers on Monday. Tuesday's game was another win for LA, this time 3-1, as they improved to 76-40 overall and 45-15 at home. When these clubs met back in April, the series was in St. Louis and the Cards won all four games. Now they are just trying to avoid getting swept. Taking them +1.5 on the run line today seems like a good call to us. The Dodgers are great, but they've got a weak starter going this afternoon in Dustin May, who has made just one prior start (last week) and it didn't go too well with the team losing 5-2 to San Diego. Jack Flaherty threw seven shutout innings of one-hit ball his last start as he continues to be lights out for the Cardinals. Flaherty's last five starts have seen him give up a total of just four runs in 31 1/3 innings on only 15 hits. He hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of the five starts and four of them have seen him allow 0 or 1. So getting an extra run and a half here seems like a nice deal. Play ST. LOUIS +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA | |||||||
08-06-19 | Angels +1.5 v. Reds | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -143 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on LA +1.5 The Angels tasted defeat at the hands of the Reds last night in Cincinnati, losing the opener 7-4. If you look up the definition of "mediocrity" in the dictionary, there might very well be a picture of the Angels logo next to it as this team perennially hovers around the .500 mark. They've now lost five in a row coming into Tuesday. While not the worst stretch of the season, one more loss and it will match it (they lost six in a row back in April). We like them getting 1.5 runs tonight at Great American Ballpark as the Reds have struggled to put together win streaks this year in spite of being a pretty underrated team. They are only 22-31 off a win. Part of the problem is they don't score a ton of runs. Only eight teams have scored fewer. The Angels rotation may not be in good shape overall, but Jose Suarez is likely to pitch better than you might think tonight. For Cincy, DeSclafani still has pretty mediocre numbers, including a 2-6 team start record at home. Play LOS ANGELES +1.5 AAA | |||||||
08-02-19 | Brewers +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -160 | 4 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE +1.5 The Cubs have lost ground in the NL Central by dropping six of nine on the just completed road trip, which had them make stops in both Milwaukee and St. Louis. They now trail the Cardinals by a game in the race for first place and are just a game up on the Brewers entering this weekend's all-important rematch. The series starts with a day game Friday and we like Milwaukee getting the +1.5 here as Chicago has really struggled to score runs of late, averaging only 3.3 the last seven games while batting .187. Zach Davies did not fare well against them this past Sunday, but we like his chances this afternoon given those Cubs struggles at the plate. Davies has had great stretches this year, like when he went 5-0 with a 1.54 ERA through his first nine starts and when he allowed just one run in his first three starts of July. Chicago's Jose Quintana was hardly sharp when he beat Davies Sunday and he's actually posted a 5.68 ERA his previous seven starts. The Brewers won't do any worse than a one-run loss today. Play MILWAUKEE +1.5 AAA | |||||||
08-01-19 | Hamilton +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -113 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on HAMILTON Hamilton picked up a huge win last week, beating Winnipeg 23-15. That was a 10* winner for us on the Ti-Cats and the first straight up loss of the year for the Blue Bombers. But it came with a cost as QB Masoli was injured and now out. Backup Dane Evans may not have looked all that great in relief last week, but he was facing an undefeated team with little prep. The Ti-Cats defense was able to slow down the Bombers, which is no small feat, and thus can carry the team moving forward. Evans should also play better with a week of prep. The Roughriders are coming off back to back wins over a bad British Columbia team and are playing on only five days rest here. Given how good Hamilton has looked this year, we think they absolutely should still be looked as the favorite going into this one, even on the road. The last time Saskatchewan played on a short week like this was Week 4 vs. Calgary and they lost 37-10, at home. The QB situation has "over-influenced" this line in our opinion as the Ti-Cats are 5-1 and have the best point differential in the league so far. Grab the points! Play on HAMILTON AAA | |||||||
08-01-19 | Broncos v. Falcons +3 | Top | 14-10 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ATLANTA As per usual, the NFL season kicks off in Canton with the Hall of Fame Game. This year's participants are Denver and Atlanta, two teams coming off losing seasons and hoping for better things in 2019. The Broncos made several major changes in the offseason with Vic Fangio replacing Vance Joseph as head coach and QB Joe Flacco being signed in free agency. The Falcons largely bring back the same group as last season. It's a pretty talented roster, one that should have better results this season. Being that the Falcons are 0-8 in the preseason the last two years, we expect them to be a little more motivated than the Broncos Thursday night. Starters won't see the field much, if at all, for either team. But Denver is still trying to figure things out under a new regime. With the line move, we're getting a good value on Atlanta, who top to bottom has a better roster. Denver did not tear it up in the preseason last either, going 0-4 ATS. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
08-01-19 | Winnipeg v. Toronto +14.5 | Top | 27-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Being the league's only winless team, 0-6 Toronto had to make a move. They did just that by bringing back QB Zach Collaros in a trade that was announced Wednesday afternoon. Collaros began his career with the Argonauts before stints with both Hamilton and Saskatchewan. Unfortunately, his time spent in Regina was limited to less than a game as Collaros got injured in the Roughriders' Week 1 game against Hamilton and he's been on the injured list ever since. That allowed for the emergence of Cody Fajardo for the Riders and thus Collaros became expendable. The Argos will take anything at this point, but most of all a win. They are getting two touchdowns at home this week against Winnipeg, who just lost for the first time this year, last week to the Ti-Cats. Kind of a letdown spot for the Bombers, who are dealing with injuries. We definitely wouldn't want to lay the points in this one and in fact will take 'em as the Double Blue were "only" as 16-point dog when they visited Manitoba less than two weeks ago. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
07-31-19 | Astros v. Indians +1.5 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND +1.5 (run line) The Indians made headlines yesterday by trading Trevor Bauer to the Reds, which may seem strange for a team in playoff position, but Bauer was highly unlikely to stick around Cleveland anyway and truthfully hadn't been as effective as he was in 2018. They got multiple players in return, one of them being Yasiel Puig, who was ironically involved in that wild Pirates-Reds brawl yesterday when news of the trade broke. All this was far more exciting than the performance the Indians put forth on the diamond last night as they lost 2-0 to Houston. The Astros represent a lot "stiffer" competition than what Cleveland has generally seen recently, but given that the Indians have only lost six times all month, backing them at home +1.5 (run line) seems to be a wise decision. Zach Plesac will now get the start, taking Adam Plutko's spot, and that's just fine by us. Plesac has a 1.12 ERA and 0.94 WHIP his last three times out. Houston will go with Urquidy, who has looked good his last two outings after struggling some in the first two. The Indians are a perfect 7-0 at home this season in games where the total is 10 or 10.5. We think they'll do no worse than a one-run loss here and probably win. Solid value! Play CLEVELAND +1.5 (Run Line) AAA | |||||||
07-26-19 | Winnipeg -2 v. Hamilton | Top | 15-23 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HAMILTON This is an early season showdown between the top team in the West (Winnipeg) and top team from the East (Hamilton). The line has "jumped the fence," meaning Winnipeg is now favored after opening as the slight dog. With the Blue Bombers unbeaten it's understandable that bettors would want to side with them, but this is a road game and the Ti-Cats have been really good in their own right to start the year. They're 4-1 with an explosive offense that has scored no fewer than 29 points each of the last four games. Furthermore, they are coming off a bye here! Thus, it's pretty shocking to see them now getting points. Winnipeg has not started a season 6-0 since 1960 and since the turn of this century, only seven CFL teams have done it. Hamilton has won all three of its home games, doing so by an average of almost 21 points per game. This isn't your average dog. Play on HAMILTON AAA | |||||||
07-25-19 | Calgary v. Ottawa +6 | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OTTAWA This is obviously a very big revenge spot for Calgary. Not only were they upset by the Redblacks in last year's Grey Cup, they also lost to them 32-28 in Week 1 of this season. But this number is inflated. Ottawa is 0-4 ATS since that Week 1 upset, which required a fourth quarter comeback. The last two weeks have been grim with a 17-point loss to Montreal and a 30-point loss to Winnipeg. But Calgary is also just 1-4 ATS this year, the lone cover coming as an underdog. Both teams are dealing with injuries at the QB position. The Stampeders actually struggled to get by winless Toronto last week, so Ottawa definitely has hope here. They were nine-point underdogs when they pulled the upset in Week 1. Getting this many at home seems like a steal by comparison. Play on OTTAWA AAA | |||||||
07-24-19 | Rangers v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* run line play on SEATTLE +1.5
AAA | |||||||
07-23-19 | Storm v. Aces -5 | Top | 62-79 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on LAS VEGAS Revenge spot! Las Vegas just lost up in Seattle 69-66 on Friday. But it should be a different result Tuesday night in Sin City. The Aces have already beaten the Storm once this year at home, holding them to a season-low 56 points. We continue to be astounded at how Seattle has persevered this season in the wake of such heavy attrition. They are down three starters, their head coach is dealing with a cancer diagnosis and the latest hit is the distraction surrounding forward Natasha Howard, who was accused of spousal abuse. Eventually, this will all catch up with them. We'll call for the four game SU and ATS win streak to end here. LV beat Minnesota 79-74 here at home Sunday and should win this one by a larger margin. The three-point loss in Seattle last week is the only loss the Aces have taken in their last seven games. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA | |||||||
07-21-19 | Lynx v. Aces -5.5 | Top | 74-79 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAS VEGAS Las Vegas is off a very disappointing loss to Seattle. Disappointing in the sense that it snapped the Aces' five-game win streak and Seattle was really shorthanded. But for the second time this year, LV failed to score 70 points against the Storm. Perhaps they can swap stories about losing to Seattle with tonight's opponent as Minnesota also lost to the Storm in their last game. Their loss came Wednesday and saw them allow 90 points, a troubling sign. Las Vegas was a five-point winner up in Minnesota last month, so beating the Lynx here in Sin City shouldn't prove too difficult. Yes, forward A'ja Wilson was injured in the loss to Seattle. But we like how the Aces held the Storm to 27% shooting. They may not have won, but that kind of defense is what you like to see. The Lynx are 3-7 ATS their last 10 road games. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA | |||||||
07-20-19 | Edmonton v. Montreal +6 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MONTREAL Montreal is going for its first three-game win streak since the end of the 2016 season here. The oddsmakers don't like their chances, installing them as underdogs at home vs. Edmonton. That's certainly understandable given what the expectations were for the Als coming into the season. But in their only home game so far, the Als pulled what is probably the biggest upset of this CFL season to date, handing Hamilton its only loss and doing so as 12.5-point underdogs. We took them in that game and then they followed with a second straight 36-point effort, this time beating Ottawa. We like them plus the points again here as Edmonton is highly unlikely to play as well as they did last week vs. B.C. That was a spirited game when they faced former QB Mike Reilly and emotions were running high. Two of the Eskimos three wins this have been at BC's expense. The other was an opening week win over the Als, 32-25. Montreal covered the eight-point spot in that game and is now getting a similar number at home. An easy call here. Play on MONTREAL AAA | |||||||
07-19-19 | Aces -2.5 v. Storm | Top | 66-69 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS (10*) Seattle has survived a bevy of turmoil to win three straight, their longest win streak of the season. They're now 11-8 overall and 7-3 at home and tonight finds them hosting Las Vegas, the first of two meetings that will take place between the teams over the next five days. Las Vegas is even hotter though as they've ripped off five straight wins and have been off since Saturday. Seattle just played two nights ago in Minnesota where they won 90-79. But with the ongoing off-court distractions involving Natasha Howard (domestic violence allegations) as well as already being out three starters, we can't see this run continuing for the Storm. Las Vegas already beat Seattle once this season, holding them to a season-low 56 points, and is now in an excellent spot to beat them again. The Aces are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've taken the court on three or more days rest. There's a reason they are the favorite here. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA | |||||||
07-18-19 | Toronto +12.5 v. Calgary | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TORONTO Toronto is the only team in the CFL yet to taste victory this season as they're 0-4 and really reeling. Three of their four losses have been by 25 points or more and the one that wasn't was a heart-breaking one-point defeat to B.C. on a rare walkoff rouge. Calgary figures to be in an ornery mood this evening as they are off a 30-23 loss to Hamilton last week. Three of the Stampeders four games so far have been decided by a TD or less. So while we understand why the line is as large as it is, we wouldn't want to lay it. Calgary has failed to cover four of the last five times it has been off a SU loss. Remember that starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell is still on the injured list. Argos quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw for 388 yards last week vs Winnipeg last week, in addition to three touchdowns. The underdog will not go down quietly in this one as they are desperate for a win. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
07-18-19 | Wings v. Sparks -7.5 | Top | 64-69 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA The Sparks are playing short-handed here due to the 10-game suspension of Riquna Williams. In the games that Williams has started, LA has gone 5-1. They are just 4-6 with her not in the starting five. But we believe they'll have little difficulty defeating Dallas by a wide margin Thursday as the Wings have not only yet to win on the road this season (0-8), they're being outscored by 11.6 points in those games. The Wings have lost three straight and five of six, the only win coming as a five-point home underdog against LA. So the Sparks are out for revenge here and thus won't be lacking for any motivation in the wake of the Williams suspension. Ironically, the Sparks only loss in their last six games was the one at Dallas. They've won three straight home games, averaging almost 93 points/game in the process. The home team is undervalued here. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA | |||||||
07-12-19 | Toronto +15 v. Winnipeg | Top | 21-48 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO The Argos are the only winless team in the CFL, but at least they were able to play a competitive game last week. We said that would be the case and took the points with them at home against B.C. The result was a wire to wire cover with the Argos losing by just a single point, 18-17 as 7.5-point pups. That was a far cry from what happened the first two weeks as they lost 64-14 to Hamilton and 32-7 to Saskatchewan. It'll be another hard game this week as they head to Manitoba to play the Bombers. Winnipeg is the only unbeaten team in the league, but the oddsmakers are being more than generous here. The Bombers have not won by more than 15 this year and have not been favored by more than five points in any game. It's unlikely they'll win big here considering QB Matt Nichols isn't 100 percent (will start though) and neither is top defensive player Adam Bighill (status is questionable). The Argos are still hungry for that first win and thus won't be throwing in the towel here. We'll grab the big number. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
07-12-19 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PITTSBURGH +1.5 Taking Pittsburgh on the run line (+1.5) here as they were just able to defeat the Cubs three times in a four-game set played right before the All Star Break. Given that, we see no reason why they couldn't win here, even though the Cubs have proven to be a much better team at home. The last three starts for Yu Darvish have not been good as the Cubs have lost all of them with the Japanese native posting a 6.62 ERA. He has a very similar ERA for the year here at Wrigley (6.23), so that's another poor sign. Meanwhile, the Pirates have won the last four times Chris Archer has started, including a 6-5 decision against Darvish and the Cubs back on July 3rd. In the final week before the break, Pittsburgh went 5-2 and averaged 8.0 runs/game. We think they'll score enough here that the worst-case result for them is a one-run loss. Play PITTSBURGH on the run line (+1.5) AAA | |||||||
07-06-19 | BC v. Toronto +8 | Top | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TORONTO The Argos are 0-2 and haven't looked good in either game, losing 64-14 to Hamilton and 32-7 to Saskatchewan. But they're getting a more than generous number tonight at home against a B.C. team that also comes in winless on the year. The Lions are 0-3, so laying more than a score on the road with them doesn't sound like the best idea right now. This will be their third road game in as many weeks and we worry about the team's psyche after blowing a double digit lead last week to a backup QB in Calgary. The Lions have given up an average of 36 points through three games so don't be surprised if Toronto gets on track on offense here. While it's due to injury, we think the change at the QB position will prove fruitful for the Argos as Opening Day starter James Franklin simply was not getting the job done. It'll be only the 8th career start for McLeod Bethel-Thompson, but that's more experience than Franklin had. Bethel-Thompson led two come from behind wins in limited action last season. British Columbia will be without its top receiver tonight as Bryan Burnham (280 yards) is hurt. Look for the Argos to grab the cash tonight at BMO Field. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
07-06-19 | Lynx v. Sun -8 | Top | 74-71 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CONNECTICUT A quick note if you're wondering about last night's WNBA selection: It was suspended due to the earthquake felt in Vegas and thus obviously "no action." We expect no such problems this afternoon in Connecticut where the Sun host the Lynx on ESPN2. Connecticut is a perfect 6-0 at home this year and happy to be back at the Mohegan Sun Arena after being absolutely humiliated in their most recent game, a 102-59 loss to Conference-leading Washington. Look for the Sun to take their frustrations out on the Lynx, who are not the same team they once were. Connecticut has actually lost three in a row, obviously all on the road, but they're a much different team at home where they average 85.2 points/game and are outscoring teams by nearly 12 points/game. The Sun have had a full week to recover from the debacle in D.C. while the Lynx played earlier in the week. While the Lynx won by 17, it was at home against the team with the worst record in the league (Atlanta). We have no hesitation laying the number here as Connecticut has won six straight times over Minnesota, including one on the road last month. The Lynx are 1-6 ATS their last 7 road games. Play on CONNECTICUT AAA | |||||||
07-05-19 | Mystics v. Aces -1 | Top | 51-36 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS The pointspread has treated these two teams quite differently of late. Washington has not only won, but also covered, five straight games. This has them on top of the WNBA standings and they are leading the league with 86.8 points/game. Over in the West, you'll find Las Vegas in first place despite the Aces failing to cover four in a row. They did win on Tuesday, 90-82 over Chicago, but were nine-point favorites in that game. This is a big revenge spot for LV as they lost by 23 here at home to Washington late last month. You can bet that result hasn't been forgotten. This now looks to be a great value play on the Aces in Sin City as they certainly deserve to be the betting favorite here as they've won the last four at home since the blowout loss to the Mystics. Washington can't possibly play as well as it did in a 102-59 beatdown of Connecticut last Saturday. We're laying the small number. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA | |||||||
07-05-19 | Winnipeg v. Ottawa -3.5 | Top | 29-14 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 10* play on OTTAWA We are guaranteed at least one unbeaten team left in the CFL after Week 4 as both Winnipeg and Ottawa are 2-0 heading into this cross-division showdown. The Bombers have beaten both British Columbia (33-23 in Week 1) and Edmonton (28-21 in last week's home opener). This will be the first time they're playing without a bye. Ottawa happens to be coming off a bye here after downing Calgary and Saskatchewan by a combined seven points. A win here would give them an impressive 3-0 mark against the West, which would be very impressive considering it's perceived to be the league's stronger division. The Redblacks have put up 76 points in two games. That 38.0 point per game average is #1 in the league and a full 7.5 PPG more than #3 Winnipeg. QB Davis looked much better in his second start with three touchdowns and zero interceptions. Plus, he connected on 6 of 9 deep throws for 176 yards. Ottawa didn't cover last week, but they are 13-6 ATS following an ATS loss and should prove to be too tough at home this week. We'll lay the short number. Play on OTTAWA AAA | |||||||
07-04-19 | Hamilton v. Montreal +12.5 | Top | 29-36 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MONTREAL "Hamilton is humming" they say and it's tough to disagree at this point as the Ti-Cats have started the year 3-0 and have outscored those three opponents 128-41. They're 3-0 ATS in those games as well. After an underwhelming performance in Week 1 where they scored only 23 points, the Taibbis have put up 105 points in just the last two games, beating Toronto 64-14 and Montreal 41-10. The Als are again the opponents this week and after they lost by 31 last week, this may seem like a "tough sell." But this is way too high of a number for Hamilton to lay on the road. They were only -3.5 in Toronto and last week's number was very similar, only that was at home. There's value to be had here, even though Montreal is 0-2. Hamilton is 0-6-1 ATS their last 7 July games. Play on MONTREAL AAA | |||||||
07-02-19 | Sky v. Aces -9 | Top | 82-90 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS With Seattle losing on Sunday, that means Las Vegas has moved into first place in the Western Conference. The Aces are 7-5 and just percentage points ahead of the Storm, who are eventually going to succumb to all the absences from their lineup. So LV is in a good spot right now. Something definitely worth mentioning here is that the Aces have been favored in all 12 games this season. Make it 13 here as they draw a Chicago team that has lost three straight, including a 25-point defeat out in LA on Sunday. Las Vegas needed OT to get by Indiana on Saturday, winning 102-97, and thus didn't cover as huge 13.5-point favorites. The Aces are now just 1-5 ATS their past six games. But the number isn't nearly as high as it should be for this tilt as LV has won six of eight overall and three in a row at home (straight up). Play on LAS VEGAS AAA | |||||||
07-01-19 | Giants +1.5 v. Padres | Top | 13-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on San Fran +1.5 Both of these teams have excelled in one-run games this year with the Padres going 18-9 and Giants at 17-9. Those are actually the two best records in the league in one-run affairs, so both teams have to be a little upset with where they stand currently. We won't be upset if this is a one-run game though as either way it would be a win for us as we're playing the run line. San Diego had a four-game win streak stopped yesterday by St. Louis. San Francisco won its game Sunday, 10-4 over Arizona. While Padres starting pitcher Allen has accounted well for himself in his first two starts, we're not ready to put our money on him. Jeff Samardzija has an 8-3 career record vs. the Padres with some of the best starts coming here in Petco. He's held the Padres to a .197 batting average in nine previous outings here. San Diego doesn't score enough at home (just 3.9 runs/game) to be trusted to win by multiple runs here. The Giants could very well take this game outright considering they have won six of their last eight series openers. Play San Francisco +1.5 on the RUN LINE AAA | |||||||
07-01-19 | Toronto +11 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 7-32 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the ARGOS The Argos lost their opening game 64-14, so oddsmakers set the line high for this first away matchup, which takes place at Saskatchewan Moday. It's actually comes down some though, showing that most CFL bettors feel the 50-point loss to Hamilton was more "blip" than "trend." We're inclined to agree. While it's never good to lose by that many points, especially after getting a Week 1 bye, we expect Toronto to play a lot better this week. The Roughriders have also yet to taste victory this season, losing their first two games by a combined nine points. So they'll take a win any way they can get it and we don't see this turning into a blowout. Recall that the Riders are without their starting QB Zach Collaros. A repeat of last week's 41 point effort seems unlikely today as WR Emmanuel Arceneaux is still not ready to return from an ACL injury. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
06-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -130 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on San Fran RUN LINE (+1.5) The Giants evened up this series with a 4-2 win yesterday, getting a strong outing from Madison Bumgarner. It's been a low scoring series so far and armed with an extra run and a half in their pocket, I think the home team is the right call here. The last time Jeff Samardzija faced the Rockies, he shut them out for seven innings and the Giants won that game 1-0. Now the last time German Marquez (today's starter for Colorado) faced the Giants, he shut them out as well (it was the same series). But Colorado just isn't as potent at the plate when they're on the road and we don't see them scoring too many runs in this game. Then there is the matter that they are 5-14 the L19 times they've been off a game where they score two runs or fewer. They are also only 6-15 the L21 games at San Francisco, including 1-4 when Marquez is on the mound. Play SAN FRANCISCO +1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA | |||||||
06-26-19 | White Sox v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -167 | 4 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Boston Run Line (-1.5) This should be a very easy win for Boston, so we're not hesitating to lay the -1.5, even at the unusually high price. The Red Sox have taken the first two games, 6-5 and 6-3, and now send out Chris Sale to finish the sweep. While one of the two prior wins did come by just one run, this should be the most lopsided game of the series. The last time Sale faced his former team, he shut them out for six innings in what ended up being a 6-1 Boston victory. It takes a heck of a pitching effort to beat Sale and quite frankly we don't think Chicago's Reynaldo Lopez is up to the challenge. He comes in with a 6.23 ERA and 1.57 WHIP, the kind of numbers you never see from Sale. Also, in addition to being 1-5 vs. the Red Sox this season, the White Sox are just 12-23 in day games. Sale has 106 strikeouts in his last 10 starts, a span of 65 1/3 innings. Chicago lost Tim Anderson to a sprained ankle in yesterday's game and he'd been one of the team's top hitters. No chance for the White Sox in this one. Play on BOSTON -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA | |||||||
06-15-19 | Winnipeg v. BC -1 | Top | 33-23 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BRITISH COLUMBIA British Columbia is hosting Winnipeg in the final matchup of CFL Week 1, an all Western Division battle. B.C. is looking to improve upon last season's .500 record while Winnipeg feels like it can win the division after going 10-8 and winning its first round playoff game. But the Lions are a strong home team (went 7-2 here last season) and should take this season opener. The home team captured both meetings in 2018. B.C. definitely improved in the offseason. We like the coaching change and nabbing QB Mike Reilly away from Edmonton was the biggest free agent move in the division. Reilly is now the highest paid player in the entire CFL, making $725K annually. The Blue Bombers seem a little overhyped to us as we don't see the ground game being quite as effective as it was last year. Again, B.C. is a much better team at home. Play on BRITISH COLUMBIA AAA | |||||||
06-15-19 | Dream v. Wings +3 | Top | 61-71 | Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DALLAS Dallas plus the points represents our only loss of the WNBA season and it came by just half of a point! The loss took place Thursday and kept the Wings as the league's only winless team (0-5). This is a team certainly playing shorthanded right now as its two best players - Skylar Diggins (maternity leave) and rookie Arike Ogunbowale (sprained ankle) - have missed time. But those absences haven't kept the Wings from being competitive. Three of the five losses, including Thursday's, have been by four points or less. This is as favorable a matchup as any they can ask for as they suit up Saturday to take on Atlanta. The Dream have just one win on the season and are the only team with a worse point differential than Dallas. That lone win did come at the Wings' expense, back in the season opener, but was also at home and saw them have to rally late (outscored Dallas 29-17 in 4th quarter). Not that Dallas needed the added motivation, but we'll take the revenge angle. Reports are that Ogunbowale could return here as well. Play on DALLAS AAA | |||||||
06-15-19 | Blue Jays v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Houston -1.5 The Astros absolutely trashed the Blue Jays Friday night (won 15-2!) and should be able to do it again this afternoon. The Blue Jays are pretty much one of the worst teams in baseball right now. Only two teams have been outscored more runs over the course of the season: Baltimore and Detroit. The only real reason to follow the team, Vlad Guerrero Jr, has been a disappointment (thus far) and had to leave last night's game after taking a fastball to the hand. His status for Saturday is unclear, but even with him in the lineup, Toronto has the worst batting average in all of MLB. They probably won't be getting good pitching today either as Clayton Richard has a 7.04 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in his four starts. He gave up seven runs in only 2 2/3 innings in the last one. The Jays' closer (Ken Giles) is also on the DL. Houston has injuries up and down its lineup right now, but last night proved that hardly matters. Framber Valdez looked good in his first start even though the Astros lost the game. He went seven innings and allowed just a run. Play Houston -1.5 on the Run Line. AAA | |||||||
06-14-19 | Montreal v. Edmonton -10 | Top | 25-32 | Loss | -104 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on EDMONTON Edmonton kicks off the 2019 season with a home game against Montreal. Last season was not a good one for the visitors as it included a failed experiment with Johnny Football (imagine that!) and a 5-13 record. The Eskimos may have finished last in the Western Division with a 9-9 record, but that was a better record than all but one team in the Eastern Division. The fact that they were the only Western team not to make the Grey Cup Playoffs will have them motivated in this season opener. We look for the Eskimos to roll here as Montreal is just 1-4 ATS its last five season openers. The Alouettes also have so many question marks with the league having to take over ownership of the team and a new head coach just named six days ago. Edmonton has no such issues and far more stability. They beat Montreal by 16 and 19 points in the two games played last season. Play on EDMONTON AAA | |||||||
06-11-19 | Padres v. Giants +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SF -1.5 If any two teams were "destined" to play a one-run game today it would be these two. Both have done quite well for themselves in one-run games this year with the Padres at 16-6 and the Giants 14-6. All we need is a one-run game and it's a win for us either way as we'll be playing the run line (Giants +1.5) in this one. Chris Paddack has started to slow down for the Padres, giving up 10 runs in his last two starts. He's only 4-4 on the year. The Padres have only two wins in the last six games overall and both came by one run. Four of the seven times they've won with Paddack on the mound this year have been one run affairs. The Giants could very well win this game as well. Beede is starting for the first time at home. Play San Francisco RUN LINE (+1.5) AAA | |||||||
06-10-19 | Warriors +3.5 v. Raptors | Top | 106-105 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GOLDEN STATE It's do or die time for the Warriors on Monday. They hope to accomplish what the Bruins did last in NHL; that's stay alive by winning on the road. Of course, they're task is a whole lot tougher than the Bruins as they trail in this series 3 games to 1. In the entire history of the NBA Finals, only one team has ever come back to win after trailing 3-1. Golden State knows this very well as it happened to them back in 2016 against Cleveland. The big news is that Kevin Durant has practiced and is listed as questionable for Game #5. Even if he doesn't end up playing, we're still taking the Warriors. They're too good to go down without a fight. Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney both returned for Game 4. Before the last two games, they'd never lost two in a row at home in the playoffs under Kerr. Their only three-game playoff losing streak under Kerr came in that 2016 Finals vs. LeBron and the Cavs. Could Toronto be too "amped up" for this? We look for this to be a big bounce back game offensively for Golden State with or without Durant. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA | |||||||
06-10-19 | Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -119 | 19 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON using the Run Line (-1.5) We don't see Texas being any match for Chris Sale and Boston Monday night. Sale has pitched much better than a 4-9 team start record shows. He has a sub 1.00 WHIP, including 0.76 the last three times he's started. His last start was a gem as he tossed a complete game shutout with 12 strikeouts, giving up only three hits along the way. In his last seven starts, he's struck out 10+ six times. Somehow Sale has yet to win a decision this year at Fenway, but look for that to change here - in a major way - as the Red Sox should win this game by multiple runs. Texas lost yesterday - as they ended up splitting a four game series against Oakland. They have Mike Minor pitching today and he has pitched well. But we're looking for the Boston offense (5th in scoring) to break out against him. The Red Sox are 11-2 vs. the Rangers since 2017, winning six of the last seven meetings. Sale is 7-2 with a 2.82 ERA in 14 career starts vs. Texas. Play on TEXAS AAA |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |