12-09-15 |
Temple v. Pennsylvania +9.5 | Top | 77-73 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Pennsylvania.
Temple opens up its Philadelphia Big 5 schedule against Pennsylvania at The Palestra, it had won back-to-back games before a 76-60 loss at 2015 NCAA runner-up Wisconsin in its first true road game last time out. This is a revenge game for Penn though, the Quakers have lost eight straight in the series, including 76-67 at Temple last year. The Owls other three losses have all come against ranked teams this season and it marks the first year that they've played three ranked teams over their first four games; and now the team hits the road again to play lowly Pennsylvania, suffice it to say we definitely feel that this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for Temple today. And from a trend based stand point, they simply don't get much stronger than this as the Owls are in a fact a poor 6-11 ATS in their last 17 after scoring 60 points or less and just 14-15 ATS in their last 29 non-conference games. And note that Pennsylvania has in fact done very well in this spot for bettors, going 9-4 ATS in its last 13 after three or more consecutive SU losses and 8-7 ATS in its last 15 vs. teams with losing records. Grab as many points as you can with PENNSYLVANIA.
AAA Sports |
12-07-15 |
Northeastern v. Western Michigan +1 | Top | 86-87 |
Win | 100 | 29 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Michigan.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for the home side to find a way to get the job done. WMU is off to a 3-5 start, most recently a 63-57 setback at James Madison on Thursday. Note that all five losses have been by eight points or less. Western Michigan though is 2-0 at home, defeating San Diego and Rochester College; suffice it to say, we can't understate how important we feel that home court advantage will be once again for the Broncos: since Steve Hawkins was named head coach at the start of the 2003-04 season, University Arena has been a brutal road trip for visiting teams, especially conference foes. Overall, WMU is 133-33 (.801) against opponents in Kalamazoo under Hawkins, including an 80-21 (.790) mark against conference opposition and a 53-12 (.815) record against non-conference opponents. Northeastern is 6-2, opening the season by going 4-0 before then going 2-2 over its last four, most recently a 76-73 setback at Detroit on Saturday. Note though that the Huskies are just 15-25 ATS in their last 40 when playing the role of favorite and just 13-17 ATS in their last 30 non-conference games, while WMU is 6-3 ATS in its last nine after scoring 60 points or less and 3-2 its last five non-conference games. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN.
AAA Sports |
12-06-15 |
Panthers v. Saints +7 | Top | 41-38 |
Win | 100 | 150 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New Orleans Saints.
While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do think the home side keeps this one competitive enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Carolina is primed for a letdown here after hammering the Dallas Cowboys 33-14 on Thanksgiving Day. Conversely, with rumors now swirling around the Super Dome that head coach Sean Payton and QB Drew Brees could be hurting the team, there's no question that the home side comes in desperate, hungry and with a chip on its shoulder, ready to play spoiler and prove the nay-sayers wrong. Indeed, do you think Brees has something to prove today? Last week's listless 24-6 loss to the Texans was the first time in 45 games that the veteran had failed to find the end zone. Note that Carolina is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven "dome" games, while New Orleans is already 3-0 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, 5-2 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive losses and 8-6 ATS in its last 14 when playing the role of underdog. Play on NEW ORLEANS.
AAA Sports |
12-06-15 |
Texans v. Bills -3 | Top | 21-30 |
Win | 100 | 146 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo is 5-6 and will look to bounce back here off a 30-22 loss to Kansas City last week, while Houston is surging, winner of four straight, it's now at 6-5. Most of those wins came at home though against some pretty weak competition and now the team hits the road to play in frigid Buffalo in the middle of December. Suffice it to say, as primarily a situationally based handicapping service, these are exactly the types of contests that we're constantly on the look out for. This is a do-or-die game for Buffalo, another loss will put the final nail in the coffin for its season, but a victory still gives Rex Ryan some hope. The Texans have been dominating defensively, but the offense is definitely no "World Beater," which means that the Bills beleaguered defensive unit will have a big opportunity at some redemption today (despite being banged up). Texans' QB Brian Hoyer isn't anything to write home about, expect the home side to isolate DeAndre Hopkins and to turn the visitors' already one dimensional offense, even more so. We're not saying this is going to be easy, obviously Houston's defense is one of the best in the league and Bills' QB Tyrod Taylor will have to be on top of his game, but we simply feel that the situation clearly favors the hungry home side. Also note that Houston is just 2-3 ATS on the road this year and 10-14 ATS in its last 24 when playing the role of underdog, while Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive losses and 12-8 ATS in its last 20 home games. Play on the BILLS.
AAA Sports |
12-06-15 |
Falcons +2.5 v. Bucs | Top | 19-23 |
Loss | -110 | 146 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Atlanta Falcons.
After dropping four in a row, this is a must win game for the Atlanta Falcons if they hope to keep their playoff hopes alive. Tampa is 5-6 and just beat the Falcons last month, making this an immediate revenge scenario which we can take advantage of today as well. With two dates vs. 11-0 Carolina still on the horizon, as well as arch rival New Orleans, which has already beaten the Falcons once this year, there's no question that the visitors will be risking life and limb to try and secure a victory today. We didn't jump on the Atlanta bandwagon when it started 5-0 and we also don't think the team is as bad as it looks right now after losing five of its last six. The situational factors working in favor of the Falcons are enormous here. Also note that from an ATS trend based stand point, they simply don't get much stronger than this as Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and already 3-0 ATS this season when playing the role of underdog, while Tampa is just 2-3 ATS at home this season. Grab as many points as you can with ATLANTA.
AAA Sports |
12-05-15 |
Michigan State v. Iowa +3.5 | Top | 16-13 |
Win | 100 | 149 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Iowa.
These teams are very evenly matched as evidenced by the point spread and in a contest which we envision coming down to the wire, all signs do indeed point to the points as the savvy move in this contest. MSU is 11-1, while Iowa is 12-0. Look at the injury reports: Iowa: DE Drew Ott (knee), out for season. One player. Look at MSU: LB Ed Davis (knee), out for season; CB Vayante Copeland (fractured vertebra), out for season; OT Dennis Finley (leg), out for season; S Jalen Watts-Jackson (hip), out for season; S RJ Williamson (biceps), doubtful; FB Trevon Pendleton (leg), questionable. Both teams will be risking life and limb today, the winner is assured a spot in the second College Football Playoff. Spartans' QB Connor Cook has been as solid as the team could possibly ask for this year, but so to has Iowa pivot CJ Beathard, we're calling these two a "wash." The Hawkeyes defensive unit is a difference maker for us though, it has a Big Ten-best 17 INT's. Conversely, the Spartans' defense has been consistently inconsistent this year, which doesn't bode well vs. the Hawkeyes ground and pound run game. Note that MSU is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a favorite, while Iowa is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as an underdog. Play on the HAWKEYES.
AAA Sports |
12-05-15 |
USC v. Stanford -4 | Top | 22-41 |
Win | 100 | 148 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Stanford.
Many believe Stanford will be invited to the Final Four of College Football with a victory today and after already hammering the Trojans 41-31 on September 19th, snapping a two-game losing skid in the series, we believe the Cardinal will once again lay the law down in the PAC-12 Championship game and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Trojans have never played in the PAC-12 Championship Game, when the program last won a league title back in 2008, most of the players on the current roster were in elementary or middle school and we don't think this bodes well for newly crowned head coach Clay Helton and company. For Stanford, a victory means it will almost assuredly be playing in the College Football Championship. USC is just happy to be here and is definitely playing with "house money" at this point of the season. The mind set between the two teams is completely different and it's a factor which we feel that the oddsmakers have not properly quantified into this line. We also think Stanford is the more complete team on both sides of the ball and note, USC is just 1-4 ATS this year off a win vs. a conference rival, while Stanford is 5-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season and 3-0 ATS its last three games played on a neutral field. Play on the CARDINAL.
AAA Sports |
12-05-15 |
Florida +17.5 v. Alabama | Top | 15-29 |
Win | 100 | 144 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida.
Most are expecting a lop-sided destruction, but we are not, as we look for the Gators to keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the large spread that's been afforded to them. Florida is 10-2, while the Tide are 11-1. Gators' QB Treon Harris will be looking for his special teams and defense to set him up with good field position today, the pivot won't be expected to do too much, rather just manage the offense, while also leaning heavily upon RB Kelvin Taylor who leads a unit which averages 137 yards per contest. While the Gators will surely be tested by the Alabama offense, note that Florida ranks among the best in the nation on that side of the ball, giving up a paltry 15.5 points and a mere 283.6 yards per game. We actually picked Alabama to win the SEC this year, but we simply feel this spread is a little large. The Crimson Tide are led by QB Jake Coker, who has four passing TD's in his last four games. The Tide will be looking to the ground game though obviously as Derrick Henry leads an attack which averages 206.1 yards per game. Note that Florida is 4-0 ATS in its last four games played on a neutral field, while Alabama is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven in the same position. We think Florida's defense and special teams play a major factor and keep this on a lot closer than that the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, play on the GATORS.
AAA Sports |
12-05-15 |
Temple v. Wisconsin -8 | Top | 60-76 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Wisconsin.
Wisconsin is coming off a big upset win over Syracuse and we like the Badgers to carry that momentum over into this one vs. the Owls. Some may think of this as a classic letdown spot, but Wisconsin has already identified and exposed the trap, says assistant coach Gary Close: "They're good enough to come in here and beat us," Close assessed. "No question." Of the three losses for Temple, all have come against Top 25 opponents. This does however also set up as a letdown spot for the Owls after back-to-back cream puff wins at home over Delaware and Fairleigh Dickinson. The Badgers would outscore the Orange 30-14 in the paint and its an area of weakness for Temple as well. Wisconsin also won handily on the boards vs. Syracuse, 51-25. Note that Temple is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range, while Wisconsin is 26-17 ATS the last two seasons following a non-conference contest. Play on WISCONSIN.
AAA Sports |
12-04-15 |
Northern Illinois v. Bowling Green -8 | Top | 14-34 |
Win | 100 | 127 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Bowling Green.
This is the third straight year that these two teams have met to play for the MAC Title. Last year NIU won 51-17. The year before that the Falcons won 47-27. This season however, we have a hard time imagining the Huskies matching pace with Bowling Green's high-powered offense and look for the Falcons to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Bowling Green ranks third in the nation in passing offense and third in total offense with an attack that's scored 41 points or more in eight of its last 11 games, a unit which is led by QB Matt Johnson. The Huskies are not the same team they were a year ago, especially after losing QB Drew Hare for the season, but somehow they managed to string together six straight wins and get a break right at the end, as Toledo blew its shot at the title game in the final week of the season. Bowling Green's defense is hardly a "World Beater," but it's good enough against both the run and the pass. Northern Illinois is going to have its hands full with this diverse Falcons offense though, which is now also getting significant contributions on the ground (236 yards vs. WMU and 337 vs. Ball State). Ohio gave the Falcons the blue print to slow down the Huskies attack last week and we look for the favorites to take heed. Note that NIU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four games played on a neutral field and 1-2 ATS in its last three off a loss vs. a conference rival, while BG is 5-1 ATS its last six as a fav of 10.5 to 21 points and 11-7 ATS in its last 18 off a win vs. a conference rival. Play on BOWLING GREEN.
AAA Sports |
12-03-15 |
Kentucky -5 v. UCLA | Top | 77-87 |
Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Kentucky.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for the visitors to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The top ranked Kentucky Wildcats are 7-0, most recently defeating the Illinois State Redbirds 75-63 on Monday. It was closer than it should have been, but Kentucky dominated the second half, especially on the defensive end, holding the Redbirds to 29% shooting to secure the victory; we believe this momentum gets carried over here. Kentucky was led by Marcus Lee who had a double-double with 13 points, 12 rebounds, and 2 blocks. The Bruins are 4-3 and snapped a two-game losing streak to beat CS Northridge 77-45 on Sunday. Note though that Kentucky is 5-3 ATS in its last eight after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, while UCLA is already 2-5 ATS this year in all non-conference games. Play on KENTUCKY.
AAA Sports |
12-01-15 |
Virginia v. Ohio State +8 | Top | 64-58 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Ohio State.
We think the Buckeyes will take this one down to the wire and keep this contest a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Note that Ohio State has won five of the last seven Big Ten/ACC Challenge games. Virginia is 5-1, it's lone loss was a road setback to George Washington, 73-68 on November 16th. The Cavaliers have won four-straight, but we think come in a bit complacent here; note that Virginia is in fact a brutal 0-4 ATS their last four when playing with five or six days rest and just 2-4 ATS their last six after scoring 80 points or more. Ohio State is just 2-3 so far this year, but matches up very well against the Cavaliers and we think this is a crucial factor obviously. Also note that the Buckeyes are 8-6 ATS their last 14 vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest. Play on OHIO STATE.
AAA Sports |
11-30-15 |
Warriors v. Jazz +7 | Top | 106-103 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Utah Jazz.
We're going to recommend a sprinkling a little on the money line today as well, this one has all the makings of a classic letdown spot for the visitors as we look for the home side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is the opening game of a seven-game road trip for the Warriors. From a situational stand point, this one sets up perfectly. Golden State is clearly the cream of the crop in the NBA this year, but Utah has quietly been dominating as well, it will be gunning for its first three-game win streak of the season, falling short on three previous tries. Note that the Jazz are in fact one of the best defensive clubs in the league, allowing 93.2 PPG, while also allowing the fewest field-goal attempts at 75.6 per contest. Most recently Utah is coming off a 101-87 victory over New Orleans. Grab as many points as you can with the JAZZ.
AAA Sports |
11-30-15 |
Clemson v. Minnesota | Top | 83-89 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we like the Golden Gophers to find a way to get the job done. Clemson comes in off a 76-58 win over Rutgers on Wednesday, moving to 4-1 on the season, but now faces much stiffer competition. The Golden Gophers played Rutgers in the Big Ten Tournament on March 11th, 2015 and beat it 80-68. Ultimately though we feel that Minnesota will present major matchup issues for the Tigers; and note that Clemson is a poor 9-12 ATS in its last 21 on the road and just 11-12 ATS in its last 23 following a non-conference game, while the Gophers are 3-0 ATS their last three as a home dog of three points or less or a pick and 12-8 ATS in their last 20 after scoring 80 points or more. Play on MINNESOTA.
AAA Sports |
11-29-15 |
Cardinals v. 49ers +10.5 | Top | 19-13 |
Win | 100 | 100 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the San Francisco 49ers.
While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset in this one, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the home side to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. It's not too hard to imagine the streaking Cardinals coming into this one a bit complacent as well after winning four straight. To win this game outright, the 49ers will be looking to create turnovers, so far the team has only forced eight total. Note though that San Francisco has only committed nine total turnovers itself, so this is a team which knows how to protect the ball. This is also a big time revenge game for the 49ers after they were annihilated 47-7 in the first meeting between the teams. Note that the Cards defense is banged up, especially on the line as starter Frostee Rucker and backup Cory Redding will both be sitting. Ed Stinson is injured as well. CB Patrick Peterson is also injured. Note that Arizona is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 3.5 to 11.5 points range, while San Francisco is already 3-2 ATS at home this season. We think the Cards come in a bit complacent and come out a bit flat, leaving the back door open just enough for the 49'ERS to sneak through.
AAA Sports |
11-29-15 |
Saints +3 v. Texans | Top | 6-24 |
Loss | -110 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the New Orleans Saints.
While we obviously wouldn't be shocked by the minor outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The Saints are horrible on the defensive side of the ball, ranking dead last in many statistical categories, but the unit catches a major break this week in having to face the anemic Texans offense. Offensively though, Drew Brees and New Orleans are firing on all cylinders and will be looking to take advantage of a Texans defense which we think can best be described as: "inconsistent." Brees ranks first in completion percentage this season, fifth in QB rating and fifth in yards per attempt when facing pressure. Note that New Orleans is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog and 2-0 ATS the last two season's following its bye week, while Houston is 8-9 ATS in its last 17 as a favorite and just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests. Play on the SAINTS.
AAA Sports |
11-29-15 |
Vikings v. Falcons -2 | Top | 20-10 |
Loss | -100 | 97 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Atlanta Falcons.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for the home side to find a way to get the job done. The 7-3 Vikings vs. the 6-4 Falcons. The Vikes offense has stalled, RB Adrian Peterson has been awesome this year, but Teddy Bridgewater has just two TD passes over his last three games. Defensively the visitors have been good, allowing 18.4 points on 334.9 yards per game, but the Vikes now face a desperate Falcons team which has lost four of its last five. QB Matt Ryan continues to be a bright spot, he's posted six TD passes in his last three games. Defensively the team allows 21.4 points off 335.7 yards per game average. Atlanta is on the cusp, its last three losses have been decided by three points or less. Minnesota can only go so far as its QB will take it and Bridgewater and company looked pretty horrible at home vs. the Packers last week. The FALCONS are the better overall team in this one and they are playing with desperation; that's good enough for us.
AAA Sports |
11-28-15 |
Notre Dame v. Stanford -3.5 | Top | 36-38 |
Loss | -106 | 80 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* PAC-12 ASSASSIN on Stanford.
This is a big game for both teams, but we simply can't understate how important we feel that the home field advantage will be and expect it to be the difference between these two very evenly matched opponents. Note that the home team has won the last four games in this matchup. While Notre Dame has enjoyed success against the Cardinal in Stanford Stadium for bettors in the past, it's important to note that the Irish are just 1-5 ATS in their last six after winning the previous game in a matchup, while the Cardinal are 16-6 SU in the same scenario. Also note that in the Fighting Irish's victory over Boston College last week, the team lost 1,000 yard rusher CJ Prosise and senior CB KeiVarae Russel to injury. Stanford's offensive line is a significant factor today as well, because its ability to control the line of scrimmage and win the time of possession battle invariably leads to leaving good offenses, like Notre Dame's, sitting on the sidelines. Also note that Notre Dame is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road and 0-2 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, while Stanford is already 5-1 ATS at home this season and 7-3 ATS when playing the role of favorite. Play on the CARDINAL.
AAA Sports |
11-28-15 |
Cleveland State +21 v. Maryland | Top | 63-80 |
Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-SHOCKER on Cleveland State.
While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as this play definitely sets up as a top rated "spot wager." Sometimes we feel that it's necessary to completely dissect a contest, looking at situational, motivational and trend based factors as well as scheduling and even other components. Other times we feel that a more "common sense" approach is the best way to handicap a matchup and that's definitely the case here. There is a huge talent discrepancy between these two teams, hence the large spread. However, Maryland has a massive non-conference showdown at North Carolina on Tuesday night, the team's toughest matchup of the entire season. Simply put, there is no way the Terps won't be caught "looking ahead" to that one and it's the perfect situational factor that we can take advantage of. And note that Cleveland State is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last two season as an underdog of 12.5 points or more and 17-9 ATS in its last 26 when playing the role of underdog, while Maryland is 1-9 ATS in its last ten as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more and just 10-15 ATS in its last 25 non-conference contests (also just 18-20 ATS in its last 38 when playing the role of favorite). Play on CLEVELAND STATE.
AAA Sports |
11-28-15 |
Ohio State +1.5 v. Michigan | Top | 42-13 |
Win | 100 | 73 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State.
After a perfect season a year ago which culminated in a College Football Playoff Championship, the Buckeyes finally suffered a setback last week. With the pressure of being undefeated now off their shoulders, we like the defending champs to bounce back in convincing style this afternoon. If history is any precedence, then Ohio State has to be liking its chances today, it's 4-1 SU/ATS in its last five visits to Michigan Stadium for "The Game." The Buckeyes fell apart down the stretch vs. Michigan State last week, but note that they're 12-0 SU after an ATS loss, as well as 10-3 ATS in their last 13 following a setback. Obviously it's not going to be a cake-walk, Michigan allows the second-fewest yards in the FBS, but the Wolverines come in having already exceeded expectations to this point at 9-2 in Jim Harbaugh's first season as head coach. QB Jake Ruddock has been as solid as Michigan could possibly ask for, but he now faces one of the better defenses that he's seen this season. These teams are indeed very evenly matched on both sides of the ball and each is under the direction of a future hall of fame coach, but the difference is in the strong ATS trends listed above, and here: Note that Ohio State is 4-0 ATS its last four as an underdog and 9-5 ATS in its last 14 on the road, while Michigan is 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a win vs. a conference rival and 5-6 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories. We're backing OHIO STATE in this one.
AAA Sports |
11-27-15 |
Nebraska v. Cincinnati -13 | Top | 61-65 |
Loss | -115 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Cincinnati.
The Bearcats are rolling, winners of five straight by an average margin of 36.8 points. Cincinnati has averaged 89.8 points thus far, but had to hold on by the skin of its teeth to beat lowly Southeastern Louisiana on Tuesday night. And because of that near "brain fart," we are expecting the Bearcats to come out highly focused from start to finish in this one and look for the team to pull away comfortably down the stretch. Cincinnati faces Nebraska at the Barclays Center Classic in Brooklyn. The winner moves on to face either George Washington or Tennessee on Saturday. Nebraska is 4-1 and its only loss of the year cam to No. 8 Villanova. The Huskers were just 13-18 last year, but look much better this season by averaging 78.8 PPG. But take note that this is a big revenge game for Cincinnati after it fell 56-55 in double OT at Nebraska last December. This is simply a bad matchup for the Cornhuskers, the BEARCATS are much bigger and we ultimately feel this will prove to be the difference in the end.
AAA Sports |
11-26-15 |
Bears v. Packers -8 | Top | 17-13 |
Loss | -110 | 85 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.
We like the Packers to build off their best overall performance in weeks and bury the back-and-forth Bears once and for all on Thursday night. The 7-3 Packers ended a three-game slide with a big win over the Vikings last week; all three phases looked sharp, including QB Aaron Rodgers. The last time these team's met, note that Green Bay would pull away for the 31-23 victory in Week 1. Green Bay RB Eddie Lacy is coming off his best game of the season, breaking the 100 yard mark for the first time in 2015. Chicago gets back RB Matt Forte and WR Alshon Jeffrey, but the team is coming off a heartbreaking 17-15 loss to the Broncos and with a chance to put the final nail in the coffin, we love the home side to kick the Bears while they're down. Chicago though is dealing with many other injuries, up and down the line and on both sides of the ball, while the Packers come into this one healthier than they've been all year. Chicago ranks 22nd in the league in rushing the QB, suffice it to say, we think Rodgers will put up some huge numbers today. Note that the Bears are just 4-8 ATS in their last 12 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while the Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a home favorite of 7.5 to ten points and 5-2 ATS off a win vs. a division rival. A focused GREEN BAY team is the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports |
11-26-15 |
Texas Tech v. Texas -2 | Top | 48-45 |
Loss | -110 | 97 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Texas.
We played this one the moment the lines came out and got -2 and that number has since swung the other way as of writing this, but regardless, we like the desperate Longhorns to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Red Raiders have already clinched their bowl berth after a 59-44 win over K-State on November 14th. Texas on the other hand needs two wins to reach the postseason in head coach Charlie Strong's second year. With a date on the road vs. Baylor next week, this is a do-or-die game for the 'Horns. Desperation breeds motivation. Even if Texas doesn't make the postseason, finishing the season strong is still paramount for Strong and his staff moving into the 2016 campaign. The Longhorns have many issues on both sides of the ball, but the situational and motivational factors are simply too strong to turn down in our opinion. The Red Raiders dominate offensively, but as good as they are on that side of the ball, is as brutal as they are on the defensive side. Texas is going to have its opportunities to put points on the board and the defense catches a break vs. a complacent Red Raiders team. Also note that the Longhorns have looked a lot better against the pass of late, not allowing an opponent to throw for more than 234 yards in each of the last five games. And note that Texas Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last eight off a win vs. a conference rival and just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 on the road, while Texas is 3-1 ATS in front of the home town crowd this season and 2-1 ATS off a loss vs. a conference foe. Play on the LONGHORNS.
AAA Sports |
11-26-15 |
Panthers v. Cowboys | Top | 33-14 |
Loss | -113 | 81 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
Tony Romo and the Cowboys are coming off a solid 24-17 win over the Dolphins and we believe they'll find a way to get the job done at the end of the night vs. the 10-0 Panthers. This is a do-or-die game for Dallas, who basically needs to win out to secure a spot in the playoffs. This is definitely not do-or-die for Carolina though, the team is already assured a playoff spot and it's not too hard to imagine the visitors finally having a letdown on the short-week. This is a fantastic situational factor that we're taking advantage of here and one which we believe the oddsmakers are not properly taking into account. Dallas possesses what many believe to be the best offensive line in the league and it also has the eighth-ranked rush unit. And now Romo is back. And the Cowboys have the advantage of playing at home as well. Additionally, it's not too hard to imagine the Panthers "looking ahead" to their game vs. division rival New Orleans next week. Desperation vs. contentedness. In our opinion, all signs do indeed point to DALLAS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports |
11-22-15 |
Raptors v. Clippers -6 | Top | 91-80 |
Loss | -110 | 22 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE DESTRUCTION on the LA Clippers.
LA has lost six of eight, making this contest almost a "must win" scenario and because of that, we fully expect the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. The Clippers catch a huge break here as well in not having to face Raptor center Jonas Valanciunas, who broke his hand in Friday's 102-91 win over the Lakers. LA is coming off back-to-back losses and also plays with the double revenge factor after dropping both to Toronto last year. Note that the Raptors are in fact a poor 5-13 ATS in their last 18 after playing three consecutive road games and just 27-31 ATS the last three season's after a victory by ten points or more. And note that LA has dominated in this spot for bettors, 22-17 ATS in its last 39 off an upset loss as a favorite. The loss of Valanciunas will prove fatal for Toronto today, expect the hungry CLIPPERS to put the foot on the gas early and never let up.
AAA Sports |
11-22-15 |
Colts v. Falcons -4 | Top | 24-21 |
Loss | -110 | 162 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on the Atlanta Falcons
We think the bye week was the best thing that could have happened for the Falcons and look for them to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. After opening the season at 5-0, Atlanta has gone on to lose three of its last four, but comes out of its break rested and ready to take on a Colts team which will be without its starting QB. Indianapolis beat the Broncos before its bye week, but learned that Andrew Luck was lost to a lacerated kidney; note only that but the Colts also lost impressive rookie DE Henry Anderson for the season with an ACL tear. The Falcons though come back a lot healthier, the expected return of WR Leonard Hankerson will provide an immediate spark. Conversely, the Colts are once again forced to turn to 40-year old backup QB Matt Hasselbeck again this week, and while he's 2-0 in that role so far this year, he now faces his stiffest test, as note that those two victories came against struggling teams with losing records. And note that Indianapolis is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games, while Atlanta is 6-5 ATS in its last 11 after two or more consecutive SU losses. Play on the FALCONS.
AAA Sports |
11-22-15 |
Broncos v. Bears +2 | Top | 17-15 |
Push | 0 | 148 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Chicago Bears.
It's true that Denver has played well despite the fact that Peyton Manning hasn't been at his best, but with their starting QB sitting this one out, we believe that his backup, Brock Osweiler, who is making his first career start, will stumble terribly. Manning has been diagnosed with a torn plantar fascia, which resulted in a 29-13 loss to KC last week. The problem for Osweiler is that the Broncos have no running game whatsoever, the unit is ranked 29th in the league in averaging 86 yards and has totalled 104 in the losses to the Colts and Chiefs. And now Denver faces a surging 4-5 Chicago team which is looking for its first three-game win streak in two seasons. The Bears also have an advantage with head coach John Fox and offensive coordinator Adam Gase, both who were together in Denver the last four seasons. Chicago's defense has looked much improved, after allowing an average of 35 points during an 0-3 start, the Bears are yielding just 21.5 since. QB Jay Cutler threw for three TD's last week and no INT's, while rookie Jeremy Langford has 145 rushing yards, caught ten passes for 179 yards and scored three TD's while replacing RB Matt Forte. Denver's vaunted defensive unit is still banged up, DeMarcus Ware is expected to sit this one out as well; note that the Broncos have been gashed for 668 yards, including 226 on the ground, over the last two games. We're expecting a rout from start to finish, play on CHICAGO.
AAA Sports |
11-21-15 |
Nevada v. Pacific | Top | 85-82 |
Loss | -115 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Pacific.
Simply put, we think that home court advantage can't be overlooked in this game between very evenly matched teams and expect Pacific to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Tigers have won the last three meetings in a row with Nevada and are 7-3 the last ten in the series. Most recently Pacific beat the Wolf Pack 69-65 in Stockton back on December 18th. The Tigers will be extra motivated here as well after falling 77-76 to Cal State Fullerton in the team's home opener on Tuesday. Pacific is now 0-2. Nevada on the other hand comes in complacent in our opinion, it's 2-1 SU an 3-0 ATS after falling 76-75 as a five point underdog at Hawaii last time out. Note that Nevada is just 11-12 ATS in its last 23 when playing the role of favorite, while Pacific is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. the Mountain West. Play on the TIGERS.
AAA Sports |
11-20-15 |
Air Force v. Boise State -12.5 | Top | 37-30 |
Loss | -106 | 105 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Boise State.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Boise State is coming off a 31-24 loss to New Mexico. Suffice it to say, we're expecting a big bounce back for the Broncos, despite the loss QB Bretty Rypien passed for 503 yards, two TD's, but also had a costly three INT's. Note that Boise State averages 38.3 PPG and gives up just 19.6 PPG. The Falcons come to town complacent, they're coming off their fourth straight victory, this time a 35-28 win over Utah State, QB Karson Roberts threw for 271 yards and a TD. Note that Air Force averages 34.1 PPG and gives up 19.8. This is a revenge game for Boise State though, the Falcons at home defeated the Broncos by a 28-14 score on September 27th, 2014. Note that Air Force is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 on the road, while Boise State is 12-9 ATS in its last 21 when playing with six days of rest. Play on BOISE STATE.
AAA Sports |
11-17-15 |
DePaul v. Penn State -4.5 | Top | 62-68 |
Win | 100 | 26 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Penn State.
1-0 DePaul travels to the Bryce Jordan Center to take on 1-0 Penn State and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we look for the home side to find a way to get the job done. The Nittany Lions downed VMI 62-50 in their 2015/16 home-opener on Saturday, while the Blue Demons beat Western Michigan 69-63 on Saturday. Note though that Penn State has won each of its last 13 non-conference games in the Bryce Jordan Center dating back to November 2013. And note that DePaul is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 3.5 to 6 points range, while Penn State is 10-8 ATS in its last 18 after allowing 60 points or less. Play on the NITTANY LIONS.
AAA Sports |
11-16-15 |
Texans v. Bengals -10.5 | Top | 10-6 |
Loss | -115 | 58 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* ASSASSIN on the Cincinnati Bengals.
We believe the 8-0 Bengals come in focused on the task at hand and look for the team to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. It's true that the Texans still have a shot in the horrible AFC South race, trailing the Colts by just a half-game, but don't be mistaken, this is a horrible team. Cincinnati is too deep and too talented for the banged up visitors to compete with for a full four quarters; note that the Bengals dominate on both sides of the ball, averaging 28.6 PPG, they also possess the No. 4 ranked scoring defense, a unit which has allowed 20 total points in their last two contests. Texans' QB Brian Hoyer is one of the most inconsistent pivots in recent history and is completely outclassed in every department by his counterpart Andy Dalton today. Houston is completely one dimensional on offense as well as the running game is in shambles after the team lost RB Arian Foster for the season to injury, which puts added pressure onto an already swamped Hoyer. Ultimately we look for Dalton to shred this suspect Texans secondary and without enough weapons to match pace, all signs do indeed point to a long night for the visitors. Play on the BENGALS.
AAA Sports |
11-15-15 |
BC +9.5 v. Calgary | Top | 9-35 |
Loss | -115 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the BC Lions.
Not many are giving the Lions a chance here, but we think they'll keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the generous amount of points afforded to them in the 2015 CFL Western Conference Semi-Final. BC is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS the vs. the Stamps this year, so the "revenge" factor is legitimate in this one. We are a situationally based handicapping service, so for the most part it doesn't matter who is on the field of play, we base our plays on external factors. And that's the case here. Note that the Lions are already 3-1 ATS this season as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Calgary is just 3-8 ATS as a favorite in the same points range. The double revenge factor, combined with these strong ATS trends make the LIONS the correct call in this one.
AAA Sports |
11-15-15 |
Chiefs +7.5 v. Broncos | Top | 29-13 |
Win | 100 | 148 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs.
We played this one the moment the lines first came out and got +7.5 and it's since dropped, but regardless, we love the visitors to take this one down to the wire and to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points they've been afforded. This is a revenge game for Kansas City after it let a late lead slip away in a 31-24 setback to the Broncos back in Week 2. And now it appears that the two teams are indeed moving in opposite directions, as KC has won two straight, while the injured and aging Broncos are coming off their first loss of the season. The reason Denver has been so good is because of its defense, as QB Peyton Manning has thrown a league-high 13 INT's as part of an offense which is ranked 22nd in the NFL based on yards per game. And now Denver's vaunted defensive unit comes into this one severely injured, as key components Aqib Talib and LB DeMarcus Ware are both sidelined. And that's good news for the Chiefs offensive unit, QB Alex Smith has 4 TD passes in his last two games, while RB Charcandrick West has a combined 207 yards on the ground with two TD's. Note that Kansas City is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 vs. division opponents and 12-9 ATS in its last 21 on the road, while Denver is 1-3 ATS in its last four following a loss after giving up 27 points or more. Play on the CHIEFS.
AAA Sports |
11-15-15 |
Fairfield +24.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 65-92 |
Loss | -110 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Fairfield.
We think that UNC comes in a bit complacent today and leaves the backdoor open just enough for the Stags to sneak in through. Despite receiving solid play from all four classes in its season debut, Fairfield is coming off a season-opening setback against Yale University at the Connecticut 6 Classic. Curtis Cobb, Marcus Gilbert and Matjia Milin each scored eight points to pace the offense. Defensively the Stags looked pretty good as well, as the team held Yale under 40 percent from the floor, under 30 percent from behind the arc and would also go on to block seven shots. UNC comes in off a 91-67 victory over Temple, Kennedy Meeks led the way with 25 points and 11 boards. Note though that the Tar Heels are just 15-17 ATS in their last 32 in front of the home town crowd and only 12-19 ATS in their last 31 after scoring 80 points or more. And note that Fairfield has performed admirably in this position, going 10-9 ATS its last 19 when playing with one or less days rest and 17-8 ATS in its last 25 on the road. In our professional opinion, this is a few too many points, play on the STAGS.
AAA Sports |
11-13-15 |
Rice v. California -16 | Top | 65-97 |
Win | 100 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on California.
We expect the 14th ranked Golden Bears to make an example of a Rice team which returns just five letterwinners from last year's squad that finished 12-20. Cal returns eight letterwinners off of last year's team, including two starters. Keep your eyes on senior Tyrone Wallace, who averaged 17.1 PPG and 4.0 APG a year ago. The blend of new faces and veterans is the reason why the Golden Bears are picked to finish 2nd in the Pac-12 this year. Note that Rice is just 11-12 ATS in its last 23 on the road, while California is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. Play on the GOLDEN BEARS.
AAA Sports |
11-13-15 |
Texas -10 v. Washington | Top | 71-77 |
Loss | -110 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Texas.
These teams open the season in China. Both universities took drastically different approaches to sending their teams to China and it's because of this that we like the Longhorns to find a way to get the job done once the final horn blares. With a revamped roster featuring 10 newcomers, nine of which are eligible this season, Husky fans will have a lot of new faces to get used to. These new faces all took a special course to help them on this trip to China, the school has gone "all in" to make this an unbelievable all around experience for the young players. Texas though is all business, it did nothing extra other than get ready for the plane ride over and to play this game and come home. The Huskies are also a very small team, which works great in the Pac-12, but the Longhorns are going to have a significant advantage today. This is a strong situational play to open the season, play on TEXAS.
AAA Sports |
11-13-15 |
Cavs -5.5 v. Knicks | Top | 90-84 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Cavaliers are rolling to open the season, sitting at 7-1 and most recently stormed from behind to take a 118-114 home win over Utah on Tuesday. LeBron James had 31 points, including 17 in the fourth quarter. Cleveland now starts a three-game trip vs. New York, a team that it beat 96-86 at home back at the start of the season. The Knicks come in off a deflating 95-93 loss at Charlotte on Wednesday, getting outscored 26-14 in the fourth quarter in which they shot a dismal 27.3 percent. Cleveland is starting to get healthier, which is more bad news for the Knicks as guard JR Smith is back in the line-up after missing three games with a bruised right knee. Note that Cleveland is 17-10 ATS in its last 27 when playing with two days of rest, while New York is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range. Play on the CAVALIERS.
AAA Sports |
11-10-15 |
Coyotes v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 3-2 |
Loss | -100 | 33 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings.
No need to overanalyze this one, we're expecting a lop-sided destruction as the home side takes advantage of a tired Coyotes team which is coming off a 4-3 OT win in Anaheim just last night, while also avenging an earlier loss at the same time. LA is rolling, with its 4-1 win over Florida on Saturday, it improved to 9-2-0 since losing its first three games by a 12-2 total. Goaltender Jon Quick is 7-2-0 with a 1.77 GAA and .935 save percentage in that span. Arizona will be gassed here, and note that the Coyotes are a poor 6-12 (-5 units) in their last 18 after scoring four goals or more in their previous contest, while the Kings are already 2-0 this season in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. Play on LA on the PUCK-LINE.
AAA Sports |
11-08-15 |
Redskins +14 v. Patriots | Top | 10-27 |
Loss | -110 | 146 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Washington Redskins.
While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to keep this one closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Obviously we won't try to convince you that the Redskins are a great team which has gotten some unlucky breaks and that the Patriots are over-rated, we simply feel this is a great spot bet: after lowly Washington, New England has a prime-time game in New York next week, followed by a divisional contest vs. Buffalo and then a big game in Denver the week after that. It's not too hard to imagine the home side finally having a small mental letdown today as it looks ahead to the more gruelling part of its schedule (and note that the Patriots are 1-2 ATS their last three as a home favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range). Washington on the other hand is coming out of its bye week focused on the task at hand and with some momentum of its own after beating Tampa Bay 31-30 in its last outing. Play on the REDSKINS.
AAA Sports |
11-07-15 |
Arizona State +1 v. Washington State | Top | 24-38 |
Loss | -106 | 125 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Arizona State.
We expect the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Washington State has so far been a big surprise this year, but it's coming off a heartbreaking loss to Stanford last week. ASU is also coming off a heartbreaker, losing a triple OT decision to Oregon, the Sun Devils still need two more victories to go bowling though. Ultimately we have a hard time seeing the Cougars containing Arizona State's potent run attack, which posted 344 yards on 55 carries last week. QB Mike Bercovici had 58 yards rushing and a massive night passing, completing 32 of 53 for 398 yards and five TD's. And that's bad news for the Cougars, who run defense is ranked 106th nationally, giving up an average of 5.5 YPC. Washington State QB Luke Falk had a poor outing vs. Stanford, who had a chance to lead a game-winning drive, only to be intercepted on a tough pass under pressure. The Cougars have also struggled on special teams, having already given up two kickoff returns for scores this year and they now face one of the countries most electrifying returners in ASU's Tim White. Washington State has been a nice mid-season story, but the loss to Stanford is a turning point in our opinion, whereas Arizona State will be risking life and limb today to try and earn a way to the postseason after last year's disappointing 3-9 finish. Note that Arizona State is 4-3 ATS in its last seven off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Washington State is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 in front of the home town crowd. Play on ARIZONA STATE.
AAA Sports |
11-06-15 |
Hawks v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 121-115 |
Loss | -108 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the New Orleans Pelicans.
The Pelicans will be looking to get off the schneid and end the team's worst start in 11 years and take advantage of what we believe will be a complacent Hawks side which has won five straight. Desperation vs. contentedness. Is Anthony Davis and company really as bad as their 0-4 record would indicate? We definitely think the answer is: no way! "I've just got to find the (open) guy, try to make the right play, which I'm trying to do," Davis assessed last night. "Then it's on the guys to knock down the shots. Once they do that, then (the defense) can't double and triple team as much, because we have guys who can shoot the ball. I just want to be the best I can be to help the team win. I feel I'm not doing it right now." A date vs. Atlanta is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though, note that Davis is averaging 26.0 points and 11.3 boards while shooting 52.9 percent in the last four in the series. With a game at home vs. division rival Washington tomorrow night, it's definitely not too hard to envision the visitors getting caught "looking ahead" to that contest. Note that Atlanta is just 43-48 ATS the last two seasons vs. teams with losing records, while New Orleans is 15-11 ATS in its last 26 off an upset loss as a favorite, 15-13 ATS in its last 28 after three or more consecutive SU losses and 15-14 ATS in its last 29 when playing with two days of rest. We expect the home side to finally hit a couple shots and to at the very least, keep this one close enough to escape with the ATS victory; play on the PELICANS.
AAA Sports |
11-06-15 |
Temple v. SMU +11.5 | Top | 60-40 |
Loss | -110 | 125 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on SMU.
While we won't be so bold as to predict the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we expect the home side to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. SMU won't be playing in a bowl this year, but it will still be looking to score an upset here at home vs. a ranked opponent. Temple is ranked in the 90's in both rushing and passing yards per game. Sure, the Mustangs are ranked 124th nationally on the defensive side of the ball, but there's no question that the unit catches a big break today vs. the underwhelming Owls offensive unit. SMU will have to play with passion to keep this one close, Temple is an all around better team, but the conditions are now right for that to happen. Also note that the Owls are just 5-6 ATS their last 11 as a favorite, while SMU is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 off a loss vs. a conference rival and 10-9 ATS in its last 19 vs. conference opponents. Play on the MUSTANGS.
AAA Sports |
11-05-15 |
Browns +10.5 v. Bengals | Top | 10-31 |
Loss | -118 | 82 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Cleveland Browns.
When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we're expecting the visitors to keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor with the large spread they've been afforded. Note, not since 1990, before any of its current players were even born, has Cincinnati covered ATS while being favored by 11 points or more. QB Andy Dalton and the Bengals have looked great to this point, but this one has "letdown" written all over it. Note that the Bengals run game is averaging just 3.9 YPC with Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Josh McCown or Johnny Manziel, as primarily a situationally based handicapping service, it doesn't matter who is under center for Cleveland as far as we're concerned tonight, it's the same thing. Note though that the Browns have dominated in this spot for bettors for quite some time, going 7-3 ATS in their last ten as road underdogs and 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 as dogs to the Bengals. Cincinnati has been decent against the run, but has injury concerns in its front seven; the pass defense has been poor this year, Cleveland TE Gary Barnridge and WR Travis Benjamin will have some opportunities to make some plays today. Grab as many points as you can with the BROWNS.
AAA Sports |
11-05-15 |
Thunder v. Bulls +2 | Top | 98-104 |
Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Chicago Bulls.
Both teams are coming in off losses, but the Thunder played just last night. No need to overanalyse this pick, we look for the hungry home side to finally step up and to take advantage of this matchup. Chicago is coming off a humiliating 130-105 loss at previously winless Charlotte on Tuesday, surrendering its highest point total in regulation since 2010. We had the Hornets in that one and it was just a bad spot for the Bulls, as Charlotte was going to be risking life and limb in that game to secure the victory. But now the situational tables have turned in favor of the now equally as desperate Bulls, who have lost two of their last three. The Thunder have averaged 114.2 points so far this season, but struggled down the stretch in Wednesday's 103-98 home loss to unbeaten Toronto. And to say this is a "revenge" spot for Chicago would be a bit of an understatement as well, as the Thunder have won six of the last seven meetings, including a 109-100 effort at home in the latest back on March 15th. Note that Oklahoma City is just 51-54 ATS vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99 plus points per contest, while Chicago is 20-15 ATS in its last 35 after allowing 105 points or more. Play on the BULLS.
AAA Sports |
11-04-15 |
Clippers +8 v. Warriors | Top | 108-112 |
Win | 100 | 34 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the LA Clippers.
Both teams come in without a loss and while the home side may ultimately gut out the victory in this one tonight, we feel that the visitors can at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Golden State most recently annihilated Memphis 119-69 on Monday. Note, all three teams that Golden State has beaten this year, New Orleans twice, Houston and Memphis are the same ones in which it eliminated en route to the NBA title. LA is off to a 4-0 start as well, most recently a 102-96 victory over the Suns on Monday. So far it's been a cake-walk for the Warriors, but the team now faces its stiffest test to date, and note that Golden State is in fact just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 after allowing 85 points or less, while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 6.5 to 9 points range and 53-41 ATS in its last 94 on the road. Play on the CLIPPERS.
AAA Sports |
11-03-15 |
Pacers +3.5 v. Pistons | Top | 94-82 |
Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Indiana Pacers.
We jumped on this line early and only got +3.5. It's since moved closer to +5.5 in most places, but we still love this selection and while we obviously would not be shocked by the outright upset victory, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the desperate and hungry visitors to take this one down to the wire. Detroit has yet to lose a game, while Indiana has yet to win. Contentedness vs. desperation. Divisional contests are always the most important, this is doubly so for the winless Pacers in this spot obviously. Detroit has looked great to this point, but in our opinion this definitely sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the home side, which is coming off an extremely satisfying 98-94 OT win over the Bulls on Friday. Also note that Indiana is 22-19 ATS in its last 41 after a loss by ten points or more and 17-13 ATS in its last 30 when playing with two days of rest, while Detroit is just 5-14 ATS in its last 19 as a home fav in the 3.5 to 6 points range and only 4-8 ATS in its last 12 when playing with three or more days rest. Play on the PACERS.
AAA Sports |
11-02-15 |
Colts +6.5 v. Panthers | Top | 26-29 |
Win | 100 | 175 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Indianapolis Colts.
We think the visitors will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and while we wouldn't be completely shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Carolina is the hottest team in the league, but enters its toughest part of the schedule right now, with a game vs. the Packers next week. Conversely, the Colts are in trouble at 3-4 and desperately need a win to keep pace for a playoff spot. And with a date vs. the red hot Broncos next week, Indianapolis can ill afford to "look past" Carolina in this spot. Take a look at Carolina's victories thus far: Jacksonville, Houston, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Seattle and Philadelphia. Winning in the NFL is never easy, but none of the teams that the Panthers have beaten this year have played with any type of consistency from week to week whatsoever. Indianapolis was predicted by many to surpass the Patriots this year, but despite its 3-4 start, this is still a very good team and we think the real Andrew Luck and company finally show up tonight. If the Colts win this game outright and parlay that momentum to another victory next week at home vs. Denver, suddenly the team is in the drivers seat heading into its bye week. Conversely, if the Panthers lose tonight, it's certainly not a "do-or-die" scenario, they'll be able to move on and prepare for Green Bay next week without any worries or concerns. Desperation vs. contentedness. Note that Indianapolis is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, while Carolina is 5-6 ATS its last 11 as a favorite in the same points range. Play on the COLTS.
AAA Sports |
11-02-15 |
Cavs v. 76ers +12 | Top | 107-100 |
Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* EAST-COAST EXPRESS on the Philadelphia 76ers.
We think the home side comes out firing tonight and keeps this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is a perfect situational play as the Cavaliers are injured and enter a stretch in which they play six games against non-playoff teams from a year ago; it's a classic "letdown" spot. Cleveland has already opened 2-1 with three tough games vs. Chicago, Memphis and Miami; LeBron James' back is ailing and Kyrie Irving is still out due to injury. Kevin Love is also feeling sore after surgery to his shoulder in the offseason. Philadelphia is 0-2, most recently coming off a listless 99-71 loss to Utah on Friday. The 76ers are a young team, but need no more motivation today than taking on the Eastern Conference defending champions and with some of the Cavs' stars seeing reduced time, this is indeed a fantastic situational play for us to take advantage of. Note that Cleveland is just 10-11 ATS in its last 21 after a victory by ten points or more, while Philadelphia is 16-11 ATS in its last 27 after scoring 85 points or less and 8-2 ATS in its last ten as a home dog of 12 points or more; play on the 76ER's.
AAA Sports |
10-28-15 |
Pacers +5.5 v. Raptors | Top | 99-106 |
Loss | -105 | 48 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Indiana Pacers.
Indiana won 56 games in 2013/15, but only 38 last year, due in part to several injuries over the courts of the season, most notably to leading scorer and heart of the team Paul George, who returns to 2015 at full health: "With the talent we have, this should be the most prolific offense we've had here," said coach Frank Vogel. Complimenting George will be Monta Ellis and center Myles Turner. Toronto won't be surprising anyone this season, after back-to-back trips to the playoffs, the team will obviously be looking to make a deeper run after getting bounced in the first round on both occasions. The Raptors look pretty good, DeMarre Carroll is a defensive specialist who has a nice touch from the outside, he's been tasked to fill the void left by Louis Williams (the 2015 Sixth Man of the Year) and Greivis Vasquez. Toronto finished among the league leaders in scoring average, but lacked considerably on the defensive end of the court, which would ultimately prove to be their downfall in the playoff series loss to Washington. Note that Indiana is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 as a road dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range, while Toronto is just 6-13 ATS in its last 19 as a home fav in the 3.5 to 6 points range. While we wouldn't be shocked by the outright SU victory, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on the PACERS.
AAA Sports |
10-26-15 |
Baltimore Ravens +7.5 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 18-26 |
Loss | -114 | 178 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Baltimore Ravens.
AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time. |
10-25-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Kansas City Chiefs -2 | Top | 13-23 |
Win | 100 | 46 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Steelers have done extremely well without Ben Roethlisberger under center, but the team now clearly faces its toughest challenge thus far in facing this desperate home side and in what is considered one of the toughest venues in the league to play in. Pittsburgh is 4-2. Surprising because Roethlisberger has been out with injury since Week 2. Backup Mike Vick was injured last week as well, which means that Landry Jones is likely to get his very first start today. NOTE: There is a chance that Roethlisberger will get the nod in this one, head coach Mike Tomlin is waiting an hour or so before game time to 100% confirm this, but if he is playing, we still love this selection. Whether it's Jones, Vick or a less than 100% Roethlisberger under center, we expect whoever it is to have his hands full today. So far the Steelers defense has been a strength for the team, looking sharp in slowing down gunslingers in Philip Rivers and Carson Palmer the past two weeks respectively, but that's about to change this week. On the other side of the field, the Chiefs are 1-5. Also surprising considering the way the team looked in the preseason (4-0), but note, the offense took a major hit with the loss of RB Jamaal Charles last week. Obviously that's not a good thing, but with the return of top WR Jeremy Maclin, we're looking for the struggling Alex Smith to have a big day today as we finally expect head coach Andy Reid to give his veteran pivot the green light to air things out. Also note, it's not too hard to imagine the Steelers getting caught "looking ahead" to their matchup at home vs. division leading Cincinnati next week, while conversely, both Smith and Reid are playing for their future careers today. From a situational standpoint, they don't get much stronger than this,and it's the reason why this play has been stamped with "RD" status, play on the CHIEFS.
AAA Sports |
10-24-15 |
Toronto Maple Leafs +1.5 v. Montreal Canadiens | Top | 3-5 |
Loss | -150 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Montreal has been unstoppable, it's yet to lose a single game this season and is coming off a 7-2 beatdown in Buffalo just last night. It also beat the Leafs just last week. Toronto has had three whole days off to prepare for this contest as it looks to exact a little revenge. It's a perfect set of situational factors that the Leafs (and us!) can take advantage of and while we wouldn't be completely shocked by an outright victory, we will in the end recommend laying what we deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurances. With a gruelling three game Western Road swing on the horizon after a two day break, it's definitely not hard to imagine the Habs finally having a small letdown in this spot. Make no mistake out it, this play is not based whatsoever about any of the players on the ice, this is a situationally based selection. Also note that Montreal is starting its backup goaltender today in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, another huge factor working in our favor. Play on TORONTO on the PUCK-LINE.
AAA Sports |
10-18-15 |
New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts +7.5 | Top | 34-27 |
Win | 100 | 164 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on the Indianapolis Colts.
Andrew Luck is back and he'll look to keep the momentum rolling for an Indianapolis team which has won two in a row in his absence. Matt Hasselbeck and the offense looked great last week vs. the Texans and we expect that chemistry to be carried over with the team's true leader under center. Remember, Luck has been the top fantasy QB the last three years and while that's not been the case so far this season, we're expecting the hungry pivot to be at his best this evening. Every facet of Indianapolis' game has improved after a couple of duds to open the season and we think that the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing that fact, instead everyone is focusing on Luck and the QB issues. But with the rest of the team coming together, the table is now finally set for Luck to dominate. What more can be said about the Patriots which hasn't literally been said a thousand times at this point. The team comes out of its bye week ready to continue the onslaught, but we feel that rest and complacency are a legitimate factor to open this game, issues which we believe will leave the back door open wide enough for the home side to sneak in through down the stretch. Note that the Patriots are in fact just 8-11 ATS in their last 19 on the road, while the Colts are 12-7 ATS in their last 19 in front of the home town crowd and 9-5 ATS in their last 14 off a win vs. a division rival. While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do definitely expect this one to be a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and will ultimately recommend grabbing as many points as you can with INDIANAPOLIS.
AAA Sports |
10-17-15 |
Carolina Hurricanes v. Washington Capitals -1.5 | Top | 1-4 |
Win | 140 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Washington Capitals.
We look for Washington to take advantage of this favorable situation. The Capitals are 2-1-0 to open the season and will be closing a four-game homestand before then hitting the road for a three-game Western Canada swing. This is an important early game for Washington. Conversely, this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors, who are coming off their first win of the season, a convincing 5-3 victory at Detroit just last night. After losing 5-0 to the Sharks on Tuesday, the Capitals bounced back with a 4-1 win over Chicago on Thursday. Note that the home side will get a big boost today as well with the expected return of center Nicklas Backstrom, who led the NHL with 60 assists last year. Carolina is ending a road trip after a satisfying win just last night, while Washington finishes a homestead before leaving town for a very tough road trip; it's a perfect storm of situational factors that all point to an epic lop-sided beatdown, lay the 1.5 goals for the healthy return on the CAPITALS.
AAA Sports |
10-17-15 |
Michigan State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 27-23 |
Win | 100 | 142 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State.
While we wouldn't be shocked by an outright straight up victory, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to at the very least, keep this one close to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines are the current flavor of the month and while we'll be the first to admit that the team has looked extremely good over the last three games, we haven't completely bought into the hype yet. And while MSU has struggled a bit over its last couple of games, it still comes into this one with one more win than the home side (6-0 compared to 5-1); and note that the Spartans looked very good in their win over Oregon earlier in year, this is a unit which has already proven that it can step up in the big moments. Will this be a cake walk for Michigan State? Obviously not, there's no question that the Wolverines' defense is playing at an extremely high level and its offense continues to make strides seemingly with every outing. But will this be a cake walk for Michigan? In our opinion, the answer is clearly: of course not! This will be Michigan's toughest opponent by far and in our opinion, Jake Rudock is nowhere close to Connor Cook's equal and that definitely counts for something. Note that Michigan State is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with winning records, while Michigan is 2-5 ATS in its last seven off a win vs. a conference rival. Grab as many points as you can with MICHIGAN STATE.
AAA Sports |
10-16-15 |
UNLV v. Fresno State +3 | Top | 28-31 |
Win | 100 | 126 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Fresno State.
We wait every week for the "Football" lines to come out and often make our selections within minutes of their release. Sometimes this works favorably for us and other times, like last night where we had North Texas at +28, lucky to get the cover with the final line closing at +34.5 in some places, it works against us. And the latter is the case unfortunately here, we took the home side at +3 and that's since gone up to +7 in most places, but regardless, we still love this selection as we expect the Bulldogs to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. UNLV is just 2-4 and is coming off a deflating 33-27 OT loss to visiting San Jose State last week; the Rebels were led by QB Kurt Palendech in that one, he'd go 15 of 30 with two TD's and a pair of costly INT's though. The Bulldogs have nothing to lose today, the team wasn't expected to dominate this season and it'll be especially eager to pull off an upset after five straight losses, including last week's 56-14 setback to visiting Utah State. Both teams are equally horrible, we just feel that UNLV's issues at QB are something the home side can take advantage of, also note that this is a spot in which the Rebels have struggled in for bettors recently, going just 1-2 ATS in their last three as a road favorite in the 3 to 10 points range. And note that this is actually a position in which Fresno State has performed well in, going 4-3 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a conference rival. Grab as many points as you can with the BULLDOGS.
AAA Sports |
10-15-15 |
Western Kentucky v. North Texas +28 | Top | 55-28 |
Win | 110 | 100 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* "ASSASSIN" on North Texas.
We watch the lines each week the very second they're released and often jump on one if we think the value is right. Sometimes this works for us and other times it works against us. The latter scenario is the case this week, but regardless, we still love this selection. We're on North Texas at +28. Some/most of you will be able to get +33 or possibly even better by kick-off. WKU's offense is firing on all cylinders, but we feel this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the visitors and look for this complacency to ultimately prove to be the difference in the end. The Mean Green come in under the direction of interim coach Mike Canales after UNT cut ties with Dan McCarney following a 66-7 home loss to FCS top-25 team Portland State; coaching changes in the middle of the season can rally a team and that's exactly what we're expecting here. We look for Brandon Doughty to come out firing, to jump out to an early insurmountable lead and then to take the foot off the gas, leaving the backdoor open just enough for the now motivated home side to sneak through down the stretch: “We are going to try to bring some excitement and fun back,” Canales said. So not only does this set up as a letdown spot for the visitors in our opinion, but it's also no doubt a classic "look ahead" position as well with a game at LSU next Saturday. We're grabbing the points, play on NORTH TEXAS.
AAA Sports |
10-15-15 |
Auburn -1 v. Kentucky | Top | 30-27 |
Win | 100 | 100 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Auburn.
Kentucky has the advantage at QB tonight, as Patrick Towles is fifth in the SEC in passing yards. Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson was supposed to be the new Cam Newton, but he was benched after three games for redshirt freshman Sean White, who has done well as a manager the past two games. Johnson is expected to get the start here. One big advantage that Auburn does have offensively is in the RB department, Kentucky's Boom Williams ran for 135 yards vs. Louisiana Lafayette and 107 at South Carolina, but the Tigers' Peyton Barber already has four 115-yards-plus games and is fourth in the SEC in rushing (111.6 yards per game), running for an amazing five TD's vs. San Jose State. We'll call the WR department a "wash," neither team has a significant advantage over the other. Both teams have big and bruising lines on both sides of the ball, but from a trend based stand point, there's no question that the visitors have a major advantage tonight, as note that Auburn is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 vs. conference opponents and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 vs. teams with winning records, while Kentucky is 7-12 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog, 8-10 ATS in its last 18 in front of the home town crowd and just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 vs. teams with winning records. Play on AUBURN.
AAA Sports |
10-12-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. San Diego Chargers -3 | Top | 24-20 |
Loss | -120 | 155 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the San Diego Chargers.
Both teams are 2-2 and two games back of the 4-0 division leaders. The big difference of course is that the Steelers are without their No. 1 QB for at least a few more weeks, while Philip Rivers and the Chargers are returning to full strength and will be looking to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Pittsburgh backup Mike Vick is averaging just 5.1 yards per attempt and has yet to complete a pass past 20 yards, clearly he'll once again be leaning heavily upon RB Le'Veon Bell. Note that Vick has fumbled twice on 87 snaps and has already been sacked six times on 44 dropbacks, his sack rate of 15.8 is the highest in the league. The Chargers rank third in the NFL with 21 gains of 20 yards or more, while Rivers is on pace to finish with a career-high 8.9 yards per attempt, which spells trouble for a Steelers defense which ranked in the bottom ten in football with 83 missed tackles last year and suffered a ton of losses in the offseason. We have a hard time seeing the visitors slowing down San Diego's dynamic TE's, Ladarius Green who is now complimented by Antonio Gates. who makes his season debut tonight. Also note that the Steelers have not won on the West Coast since 2005. This is essentially a do-or-die game for the home side who can't afford to look past its potentially dangerous opponent, we're laying the points and expecting a lop-sided destruction; play on the CHARGERS.
AAA Sports |
10-11-15 |
San Francisco 49ers +7 v. NY Giants | Top | 27-30 |
Win | 100 | 167 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Francisco 49ers.
We feel that the home side is set up for a letdown here after back-to-back victories, including a convincing win at Buffalo last week. The 49ers have had a rough start to the year, but the team had no delusions coming into the season, everyone knowing that this was going to be a rebuilding process. San Francisco QB Colin Kaepernick is playing for his career this year, and while he's struggled at time this season, he does have the very competent Carlos Hyde to hand off to, who is averaging 4.5 YPC. Giants' QB Eli Manning has looked a lot better of late, but New York is already famous this season for a couple of fourth quarter meltdowns. Also, with a game at division rival Philadelphia next Monday night, it's not too hard to imagine the home side looking ahead to that one. And note that San Francisco is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 on the road, while New York is only 8-10 ATS in its last 18 in front of the home town crowd. While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do feel that the 49'ERS can keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
AAA Sports |
10-11-15 |
Jacksonville Jaguars v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 | Top | 31-38 |
Win | 102 | 159 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
We like the home side to bounce back and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. It's hard to win on the road. It's hard to play on the road period, just ask the Jaguars, who will be playing their third straight away from friendly confines. Last week the Jags blew a golden opportunity to beat the Colts in the 16-13 OT setback and suffice it to say, we feel this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visiting side today. In the loss to Carolina, Bucs' QB Jameis Winston threw four INT's, but did finish 26 of 43 for 287 yards and two TD's as well. There's no question that Winston catches a break facing Jacksonville's secondary this week, and note, for the most part he's actually been pretty impressive this season having already thrown for 965 yards and six TD's. And despite the team's 1-3 record, the Buccaneers defense has given up an average of just 107.3 yards so far this year, which is the 16th best run defense in the league (bad news for Jags' rookie phenom RB TY Yeldon!). But not to be outdone, note that Tampa's pass defense is tied for second in the NFL with the Jets at 185.5 per game. The Bucs are also tied for ninth in the league with nine sacks. We think the Jags are deflated, while the Bucs are motivated, all signs do indeed point to a lop-sided blowout; lay the points with confidence on TAMPA BAY.
AAA Sports |
10-11-15 |
Washington Redskins +9 v. Atlanta Falcons | Top | 19-25 |
Win | 100 | 159 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Washington Redskins.
We think that the red hot Falcons come into this one a bit complacent and leave the backdoor open just enough for the Redskins to sneak through. Washington sits atop the NFC East in a three way tie with the Giants and Cowboys, and could actually be 3-1 if not for one poor play. We primarily base our picks on "situations," and it's not too hard to imagine the Falcons, who are coming off a 48-21 annihilation of the Texans, having letdown in this spot (also note that this is also a "look ahead" scenario for the home side, which has a quick turnaround with a Thursday night game at division rival New Orleans). The Redskins have been getting the job done with their No. 1 ranked run game, led by Alfred Morris, Matt Jones and Chris Thompson, which is bad news for a Falcons unit which has yet to be really tested this year. This will be all about controlling the clock for the visitors as they look to keep the home side's potent offense off the field of play. Clearly the Redskins can't get into a shootout with Julio Jones and the high-flying Falcons, but note that Washington's secondary has been surprisingly resilient considering some of the injury issues. While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do think this one will be a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, play on WASHINGTON.
AAA Sports |
10-10-15 |
Michigan State -17 v. Rutgers | Top | 31-24 |
Loss | -110 | 148 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TEN GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State.
The Spartans are 5-0 SU but 0-5 ATS. Other than the victory over the Ducks, none of the Spartans wins have looked overly impressive. It's time to put up or shut up this weekend though, MSU has the the perfect opponent to get untracked against as Rutgers is banged up. When you dig a little deeper into Rutgers numbers, they are in fact misleading, with games vs. lightweights Norfolk State, Kansas and Washington State. QB Connor Cook and the offense have a big opportunity today, the Scarlet Knights' defense has major injury issues and has already been prone to giving up the big play this season; and note that the MSU run game has really developed over the last couple of outings, keep your eyes on RB's Madre London, who is averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and LJ Scott who had two scores and 146 rushing yards in last week's win over Purdue. Don't let the win over inept Kansas fool you, this is a Rutgers team that has more questions than answers still. Offensively the Scarlet Knights are led by Chris Laviano, who has already thrown five INT's and while the MSU secondary has given up a few plays, we feel the advantage still lies with the visitors. And note, the Spartans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight as a road favorite and 13-4 ATS after playing a conference game. Conversely, this is a spot in which Rutgers has struggled in for bettors, just 6-10 ATS in its last 16 vs. conference opponents, only 6-9 ATS in its last 15 in front of the home town crowd and a poor 3-4 ATS in its last seven when playing with two weeks or more of rest. We got in early and have a very unfavorable line (-17), but regardless, we love this selection and are expecting a wire-to-wire rout, unload with confidence on MICHIGAN STATE.
AAA Sports |
10-04-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Washington Redskins +3 | Top | 20-23 |
Win | 110 | 100 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* RIVALRY BLOWOUT on the Washington Redskins.
We played the Eagles last week and they'd barely hold on for the 24-17 win over the Jets, scoring all 24 points in the first half. Washington should have won in Week 1, but fell 17-10 at home to the Fish, before then trouncing the Rams 24-10 in Week 2, only to then fall 32-21 in New York last Sunday. Philadelphia looked poor offensively last Sunday, most of its points came from special teams and defensive play, we have a hard time seeing the Eagles getting a similar effort today vs. a Redskins team which plays much better in front of the home town crowd. This is essentially a do-or-die game for Washington as well and while we obviously wouldn't be surprised by an outright straight-up victory, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. And note that from an ATS trend based stand point, this play is very strong as Philadelphia is a poor 12-14 ATS in its last 26 when playing the role of favorite and just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 vs. division opponents, while Washington is 5-3 ATS in its last eight as a home dog of three points or less. Play on the REDSKINS.
AAA Sports |
10-04-15 |
NY Jets v. Miami Dolphins +1 | Top | 27-14 |
Loss | -105 | 158 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on the Miami Dolphins.
Unbelievably just four weeks into the 2015 NFL campaign and Dolphins' head coach Joe Philbin is on the hot seat, if he doesn't deliver the goods in London this morning, it's possible he won't even have a job by the time he touches back on home soil. It's do-or-die for the Fish after they squeaked by the Redskins in Week 1 and then suffering disturbing losses to the Jags and Bills respectively. The Jets looked pretty good in their first two games, but definitely came back down to Earth in last week's 24-17 home loss to the Eagles. While it's true that New York is 5-1 ATS in its last six, it's just 5-13 SU in its last 18. The Jets looked horrible last weekend and we believe will suffer another classic letdown here; note that New York is a poor 5-6 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite, while Miami is 9-8 ATS in its last 17 when playing the role of underdog. Simply put, we don't think that the Jets are as good as their record would indicate and we definitely don't feel that the Fish are as horrible as they've shown to this point. Desperation breeds motivation, we expect the determination/focus in which the DOLPHINS play with today to ultimately prove to be the difference.
AAA Sports |
10-03-15 |
Purdue v. Michigan State -24 | Top | 21-24 |
Loss | -110 | 137 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State.
MSU is 4-0 SU but 0-4 ATS to open the year. The Boilermakers come to town fresh off a home loss to Bowling Green and are obviously going to be in tough today on homecoming weekend at Spartan Stadium. The Spartans are ranked No. 2 in the country, while Purdue comes in on the opposite side of the spectrum as one of the worst teams in the conference. Suffice it to say, we're finally expecting MSU to lay the hammer down and to play a full four quarters with its foot on the gas today. It's the first conference game of the season for the Spartans and they'll clearly be looking to make a statement to the rest of the league after their inconsistent play through the non-conference slate. Expect Connor Cook and company to air the ball out and then to concentrate on the run game after securing a big lead. Note that Purdue is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 after two or more consecutive SU losses, while MSU is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 vs. conference opponents. Lay the points with confidence on the SPARTANS.
AAA Sports |
10-03-15 |
Minnesota +7 v. Northwestern | Top | 0-27 |
Loss | -110 | 137 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Minnesota.
After opening the year at 4-0 SU, we feel that Northwestern is going to have a bit of a letdown here, enough of one for Minnesota to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the handful of points that it's been afforded. The Golden Gophers are bit banged up in the secondary and will be tested by Northwestern's talented group, but the visitors also have plenty of offensive weapons, including QB Mitch Leidner, who threw for a career-high 264 yards in last week's 27-24 win over Ohio, the team racked up 468 total yards, 204 rushing and 264 passing. The Wildcats got good production from junior QB Clayton Thorson, who threw for three TD's in last week's 24-19 win over Ball State, but note that the Golden Gophers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 vs. conference opponents. Northwestern has got the job done with tough defensive play, but faces a stiff test today vs. Minnesota's balanced attack. While we wouldn't be shocked by an outright SU victory, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can (note that Northwestern is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite); play on the GOLDEN GOPHERS.
AAA Sports |
10-01-15 |
Baltimore Ravens -2 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 23-20 |
Win | 100 | 97 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Baltimore Ravens.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any single handicapping methodology and believe that being flexible with one's approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. With some selections we like to completely dissect it, looking at situation, motivation, scheduling, ATS trends and individual player matchups, but in some instances we feel that a more common sense approach is the best way to handicap a contest and that's the case here. Revenge is a powerful motivating factor, but some times it can be over rated. And once again, that's the case here in our professional opinion. While it's true that the Ravens beat the Steelers 30-17 in last years AFC Wildcard game, the situation is such that that factor now becomes irrelevant in this case. Big Ben Roethlisberger is not suiting up for the home side, instead it will be journeymen Michael Vick under center. Also, Baltimore comes into this game at 0-3 SU/ATS and while history has shown that only a few teams have ever even made it to the playoffs after starting the season with that record, Baltimore clearly won't have thrown in the towel yet, this is a team which will be risking life and limb and leaving everything on the field as it battles tooth and nail for its first win of the season. Pittsburgh still has dangerous offensive weapons, but without Roethlisberger, who many feel is a Top 3 QB, it's simply not the same unit. We'll take Joe Flacco and the hungry RAVENS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
AAA Sports |
09-28-15 |
Cincinnati Reds v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | Top | 1-5 |
Win | 105 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Washington Nationals on the RUN-LINE.
We feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound in this matchup absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return. This is the Nationals home finale and Max Scherzer will look to close the season strong despite the team having been eliminated from playoff contention. The Nats will especially be motivated to bounce back after yesterday's 12-5 loss to the Phillies. Scherzer (12-12, 2.98 ERA) has struggled down the stretch, going just 1-4 with a 4.85 ERA over his last nine starts but has a big opportunity today to reverse his fortunes vs. a Reds team which is in the midst of one of its longest losing streaks of 2015, yesterday's 8-1 setback to the Mets was its eighth in a row. The Nationals have motivation here as well as they've lost all six games vs. the Reds this year and that's bad news for Brandon Finnegan (1-1, 4.97 ERA) who gave up six runs over five innings in a 10-2 loss in St. Louis on Wednesday. We're giving Scherzer the big nod on the bump and the NATIONALS the big nod in the motivation department and with those two factors clearly working for us today, the RUN-LINE becomes the savvy move in this particular contest.
AAA Sports |
09-27-15 |
Chicago Bears v. Seattle Seahawks -14.5 | Top | 0-26 |
Win | 100 | 114 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Seattle Seahawks.
No need to overanalyse this one, Seattle is obviously a popular wager among the general betting public and for good reason as the conditions are definitely right for a lop-sided beatdown of epic proportions. The Seahawks are 0-2 SU/ATS, losing 34-31 in OT at St. Louis and 27-17 at Green Bay in Week 2. Two incredibly tough games to open the season, Seattle now returns home with something to prove. And it couldn't have asked for a better opponent to take its frustrations out on as the wounded Bears come to town, also 0-2 SU/ATS, but without their starting QB and a few other key pieces on both sides of the ball. The Seahawks were favored to win the Super Bowl this year and that goal is still attainable, but the team needs to make a statement this week, a close victory over this pathetic Chicago team simply won't cut it, Seattle needs a signature victory, not just winning, but annihilating its opponent from start to finish. Note that the Hawks are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 home games, while Chicago is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 away from friendly confines. We have a hard time seeing Chicago mounting any sort of offensive attack and look for SEATTLE to dominate in all three phases this afternoon, lay the points with confidence.
AAA Sports |
09-27-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 v. NY Jets | Top | 24-17 |
Win | 100 | 100 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Philadelphia Eagles.
We don't believe the New York Jets are as good as their 2-0 SU/ATS would indicate. We also don't think that the Eagles are as horrible as their 0-2 SU/ATS record is leading us to believe. With a game at division rival Miami next week, there is no question in our minds that this one sets up as a classic "look ahead/letdown" spot for the over-achieving Jets. Conversely, this is obviously a do-or-die game for the Eagles, only a tiny percentage of teams throughout NFL history have ever even made the playoffs after opening the season 0-3. And with another road contest at division rival Washington next Sunday, this week's contest becomes even more important for the visiting side. Now throw in the fact that the Eagles are 3-0 ATS their last three as a road dog of three points or less, 5-3 ATS their last eight non-conference games and 3-2 ATS after two or more consecutive losses, while the Jets are 1-3 ATS their last four after playing on Monday Night Football, then you understand why we designated this selection with top rated 10* status; all signs do indeed point to PHILADELPHIA as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports |
09-26-15 |
Ball State +18 v. Northwestern | Top | 19-24 |
Win | 100 | 149 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Ball State.
Sometimes we feel it's necessary to completely dissect a contest, looking at situational and motivational factors, ATS trends, scheduling and other external issues which may effect the game and other times we feel that a more common sense approach is the best way to handicap, and that's the case here. In our professional opinion, this sets up as a classic "look ahead/letdown" spot for Northwestern, which has opened the season with three straight SU/ATS victories, over Stanford, EIU and at Duke last week. Now the team is being asked to play lowly Ball State, before a game at home vs. conference rival Minnesota. It's a classic spot bet. The Cardinals can take advantage, they're 2-1 SU to open the season, coming off a convincing 28-17 win at EMU last week; also note that Ball State has performed well in this position for bettors, going 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a win vs. a division rival and 9-5 ATS in its last 14 on the road. And note that this is a spot in which Northwestern has struggled in, going just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite, just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 at home and only 2-5 ATS in its last seven after two or more consecutive SU wins. Grab as many points as you can with BALL STATE.
AAA Sports |
09-26-15 |
BYU v. Michigan -4 | Top | 0-31 |
Win | 100 | 141 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan.
Both teams come into this contest at 2-1, BYU has surprisingly gone 3-0 ATS to this point, winning at Nebraska, beating No. 20 Boise State and losing to No. 10 UCLA by a single point. Backup QB Tanner Mangum was 30 of 47 with 344 yards, a TD and an INT in last week's 24-23 setback at UCLA, he'll be tested by UM CB Jourdan Lewis, who has a Big Ten-best six pass breakups. Michigan QB Jake Rudock won't be forcing the issue, he already has five INT's for the season, but note that the Wolverines have come away with points every time they've had the ball inside the 20 yard line, scoring eight TD's and two FG's. This is a tough spot for BYU, which has played at an extremely high-level up to this point but which is definitely set up for a big letdown on the national stage in our professional opinion (note that BYU is 4-7-1 against teams currently in the Big Ten). Also note that the Cougars are just 5-7 ATS in their last 12 vs. teams with winning records, while Michigan is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points and expect the WOLVERINES to control from start to finish.
AAA Sports |
09-26-15 |
Central Michigan v. Michigan State -28.5 | Top | 10-30 |
Loss | -110 | 141 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan State.
MSU is 3-0 SU and 0-3 ATS, but with one last chance at a tune-up before the meat of the conference schedule, we finally expect the Spartans to dominate from start to finish and to comfortably pull away down the stretch vs. the the lowly Chippewas. Michigan State can ill afford to "look past" UCM, especially after the scare that top-ranked Ohio State suffered vs. Northern Illinois last week. The Spartans obviously have plenty of weapons on both sides of the ball, we have a hard time seeing the Chips secondary contending with MSU WR Aaron Burbridge, who already has 20 receptions this year, QB Connor Cook is in line for another productive day. The bottom line, CMU will not be able to contain the Michigan State attack, a unit which has scored at least 30 points in a school-record 11 consecutive games. It's important to note as well the Central Michigan is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while MSU is interestingly 11-6 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive SU victories. We got down early and have an unfavorable line (-28.5), but regardless, we're expecting an epic one sided rout, play on MICHIGAN STATE.
AAA Sports |
09-25-15 |
Stanford v. Oregon State +16.5 | Top | 42-24 |
Loss | -110 | 127 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* SCORPION on Oregon State.
With some selections, we completely dissect the game, looking at situational and motivational factors, assessing relevant ATS and O/U trends as well as taking into account lop-sided trends and numbers, while also breaking down scheduling and other external issues. Other times we feel that a more "common sense" approach is the best way to handicap a contest and that's definitely the case here, it's a great/classic spot wager that we can take advantage of: after losing to Northwestern in its opener, Stanford has bounced back nicely to beat UCF and USC respectively, winning 41-31 vs. the Trojans as 9.5 point underdogs last week; can anyone say "letdown" spot? The Beavers are 2-1 and have to be loving this situation as they'll enjoy their bye next week and are going to be able to leave everything on the field tonight. Also note, that from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for as Stanford is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine when playing the role of road favorite and just 5-8 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival. And note that this is in fact a position in which Oregon State has done well in for bettors, going 11-7 ATS in its last 18 when playing with six or less days rest. While we won't be so bold as to call for the outright upset, we do believe this is a great spot for the home side, grab as many points as you can with OREGON STATE.
AAA Sports |
09-25-15 |
Tampa Bay Rays v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-5 |
Win | 120 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Blue Jays.
The Rays are coming off a series with fellow cellar dweller Boston and had to then immediately hit the road and head North of the border to face the playoff bound Toronto Blue Jays, who will look to continue to distance themselves from the Yanks in the race for the AL East crown. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi (8-8, 3.38 ERA) who despite getting shelled for four runs off eight hits over 5 2/3's innings vs. the Orioles on Sunday, somehow managed to escape with a no-decision; Odorizzi had just three K's, his lowest amount all season. The home side counters with RA Dickey (10-11, 4.05 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings while striking out three in an unfortunate no-decision; note that it was the knuckle-ballers fourth quality start out of his last five and the veteran has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling this evening as he's a very respectable 8-3 with a 3.15 ERA in front of the home town crowd so far this season. The Yanks also have a favorable matchup at home vs. the White Sox over the weekend, putting pressure on Toronto to finish strong down the stretch; in our professional opinion, all signs are pointing to a lop-sided rout, lay the 1.5 runs for the small return with confidence.
AAA Sports |
09-21-15 |
Los Angeles Angels v. Houston Astros -1.5 | Top | 3-6 |
Win | 130 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Houston Astros on the RUN-LINE.
The visitors hand the ball to Jered Weaver (7-11, 4.74 ERA) who was ejected from his last start after hitting Kyle Seager of the Mariners in the fourth inning; note that Weaver looked horrible up to that point anyways, allowing three runs off six hits over 4 2/3's. Weaver has been a "Jekyll and Hyde" hurler all season, while he's a very respectable 4-2 with a 2.87 ERA at home, he's a deplorable 3-9 with a ballooned 6.91 ERA on the road. The home side counters with ace Dallas Keuchel (17-8, 2.56 ERA) who was shelled for nine runs off 11 hits over just 4 2/3's vs. the Rangers on Wednesday; he walked no one, struck out five and served up three homers. Clearly it was the southpaw's worst game of the year, but the good news is, this is a spot in which he's dominated in throughout the season, going a perfect 13-0 with a minuscule 1.49 ERA in front of the home town crowd. We're banking on Keuchel and the home side to come in razor focused after his disastrous last outing, in our opinion the massive talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the nice plus-money return; play on the ASTROS on the RUN-LINE.
AAA Sports |
09-20-15 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 | Top | 18-43 |
Win | 100 | 123 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
For the most part we base our picks on "situations." Unless it's a Top 3 player, like a Peyton Manning or Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady etc, it doesn't matter to us whatsoever who is on the field of play that day, we make our picks based on situations, motivation and on lop-sided trends and numbers. This particular selection is a real beauty and deservedly gets our top ranked 10* rating for a number of great motivational and situational reasons. So here we go! San Francisco is coming off a hugely satisfying upset win on Monday night at home and now has to travel across the country on a short week to play an early EST game; also note that the 49ers have a tough divisional contest on the road in Arizona next week. Can anyone say classic "look ahead/let down spot?!" And for the Steelers, who come into this one on nine days rest after their opening day loss in New England, this has essentially become a "do-or-die" scenario, with super tough games upcoming at St. Louis next week, at home vs. Baltimore and then one the road at San Diego. It's as simple as that for us, it's a perfect storm of factors working in favor of PITTSBURGH this afternoon.
AAA Sports |
09-17-15 |
Clemson v. Louisville +5.5 | Top | 20-17 |
Win | 100 | 95 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Louisville.
Louisville is 0-2, while Clemson is 2-0. Desperation breeds motivation and suffice it to say, while we would obviously not be shocked at all if the Cardinals won this game outright, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. If you dig a little deeper into each team's situation at the moment, we find that Louisville has lost to a couple of really good teams in Auburn and Houston. Clemson is one of the favorites in the ACC, but its victories came over Wofford and Appalachian State. There's no question that the Tigers now face their toughest opponent of the season, a Cardinals team which will be hungry to get off the schneid and which has a number of favorable ATS trends working on its side: note that Louisville is 3-2 ATS in its last five as an underdog, while Clemson is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a road favorite. As primarily a situational handicapping service, it does not matter to us who is on the field of play (unless of course it's a Top 3 player, like LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc), and for us, this play is a perfect storm of situational, motivational and trend based factors colliding together. Throw in the short week which always favors the home side, then the Cardinals become an even stronger pick. So while it's only Week 3, this is a critical showdown in the ACC Atlantic and so because of that, we're expecting a highly competitive affair which will go down to the wire; play on LOUISVILLE.
AAA Sports |
09-14-15 |
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 3-20 |
Loss | -105 | 221 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Minnesota Vikings.
We played this game the moment we could and got a very favorable line, but if you can get -3 or better, we still love this selection. The Vikes looked fantastic in the preseason, finishing 4-1 SU/ATS, easily handling Pittsburgh 14-3 in the Hall of Fame Game, going into Dallas in the all important Week 3 "dress rehearsal" and beating the 'Boys 28-14 and only losing the finale, 24-17 in Tennessee against a then winless Titans team. Minnesota fans have a lot to feel good about this year, QB Teddy Bridgewater seemingly has gotten better after every game that he's played and now teamed with star RB Adrian Peterson, expectations are high to say the least for the Vikes. Bridgewater now has legitimate deep threats in Jarius Wright, Mike Wallace and Charles Johnson. The defense is expected to be much better as well, keep your eyes on LB Anthony Barr, who was a Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate last year. And that's bad news for the 49ers who allowed 52 sacks last season and who lost coach Jim Harbaugh and many key players on both sides of the ball. Beleagured QB Colin Kaepernick will once again be under center, he'll be running for his life today because of his porous offensive line. Reggie Bush and Carlos Hyde round out a pretty mediocre offensive unit, while the defense is in shambles after the mass exit in the offseason. All signs do indeed point to a beatdown, play on the VIKINGS.
AAA Sports |
09-14-15 |
Colorado Rockies v. Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-4 |
Win | 100 | 26 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Dodgers on the RUN-LINE.
We feel that that massive talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price in this matchup as we obviously expect a lop-sided result once the smoke clears at the end of the night. Clayton Kershaw (13-6, 2.15 ERA) has won eight straight decisions and he'll be looking to help his team win for a 16th time in its last 20 games. Kershaw has been particularly effective of late as well, going 8-0 with a minuscule 0.96 ERA over his past 12 starts, he won his third straight outing Tuesday, giving up one earned run over seven innings in his teams 6-4 victory over the Angels. And a date vs. the Rockies is just what the doctor ordered for Kershaw to keep the momentum rolling as he's 8-0 with a 2.62 ERA over his last nine meetings with Colorado and 8-2 with a tiny 1.60 ERA in 13 career matchups at Chavez Ravine. The visitors counter with Jon Gray (0-0, 5.17 ERA) who is still looking for his first big-league victory in his eighth start, most recently he gave up two hits over five shutout innings in Tuesday's 2-1 loss at San Diego. Gray has been consistently inconsistent this year though, while Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher in the league once again; play on the DODGERS on the RUN-LINE.
AAA Sports |
09-13-15 |
Miami Dolphins -3.5 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 17-10 |
Win | 100 | 196 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Dolphins.
Washington has been embroiled in controversy throughout the off-season, while Miami has quietly and methodically gone about constructing a serious playoff contender. Suffice it to say, when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we're expecting the visitors to find a way to get the job done. Washington made a late preseason decision to bench RG III as starting QB and instead go with Kirk Cousins. It wouldn't matter who got the start today though in our opinion as we're expecting Miami's improved defensive unit, which is now anchored by Ndamukong Suh, to have a big day against this suspect Redskins offensive line. With Suh drawing double teams, it will open things up for Miami's talented pass rushers like Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon to inflict as much damage as possible on Cousins (note that the Redskins' offensive line would allow a deplorable 58 sacks last year, second-worst in the NFL). The Fish also have plenty to be excited about with steadily improving QB Ryan Tannehill and his revamped receiving corps. It obviously won't be a cake walk though, Washington has plenty to prove and Cousins does have threats in the form of DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, but this one ultimately boils down to the Redskins' poor offensive line and defensive unit. Miami can ill afford to look past its Week 1 opponent, with playoff aspirations going in, getting started on the "right foot" becomes paramount and we expect the team to take that first step today; play on the DOLPHINS.
AAA Sports |
09-13-15 |
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 v. St Louis Rams | Top | 31-34 |
Loss | -110 | 196 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Seattle Seahawks.
We chose the Seahawks to win the NFC this season in a futures wager. Here is that analysis:
So in the last two Super Bowls the Seahawks have outplayed their opponents for more than 119 of 120 minutes and have only one title and a lot of angst to show for it. This coming February they’ll get a shot at atoning for last season's mental boo-boo. Basically the same cast of characters is back, and adding TE Jimmy Graham to the mix only spikes the punch a bit. There really isn’t much standing in the way of another deep playoff run. Green Bay, maybe, if the Packers can finagle a title game in Wisconsin. Dallas, if the Boys can stop patting themselves in the back for a moment. And when the Seahawks do get in position to win the Super Bowl back, don’t write Marshawn Lynch out of the offense. Seahawks appear to be a bargain at +250.
Seattle will be looking to make a statement in this opening game, not only to the Rams and the rest of the NFC West, but also to the rest of the league. Surely the bitter defeat in Super Bowl XLIX has weighed heavily on the organization throughout the preseason and they'll now finally be able to take out their frustrations on a real opponent Sunday. And here's the perfect team to beat up on, the Rams looked horrible in the preseason and start new QB Nick Foles, whom they traded Sam Bradford for, from the Eagles. St. Louis is going to have a hell of a time slowing down the combination of QB Russell Wilson, RB Marshawn Lynch and TE Jimmy Graham (note that the 'Hawks are 3-0 SU/ATS in their last three away from friendly confines). And remember, the last time these team's met, Seattle walked away with the 20-6 victory, holding the Rams to just 245 total yards. St. Louis would allow 47 sacks, eighth most in the NFL last year and we predict this unit having their hands full today as well. While some may look at this as some sort of divisional "trap game" for the visitors, we don't see it that way at all; there's no Super Bowl hangover for SEATTLE, we like this team to come in focused and prepared on the task at hand and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
AAA Sports |
09-12-15 |
Oregon +2.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 28-31 |
Loss | -110 | 146 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Oregon.
Oregon is susceptible on the defensive side of the ball, but the offense will once again be one of the best in the nation at season's end. MSU got gassed in the second half against the Ducks last year and we feel will struggle to match pace again this season. While we obviously feel the outright victory is the likely outcome of this one, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Oregon's defensive front will have its hands full in trying to slow down Michigan State's running attack. The Ducks will also be trying to get pressure onto QB Connor Cook, who struggles at times when forced out of his comfort zone. Good news for Oregon fans, senior transfer QB Vernon Adams, who took a big hit in the opener which knocked him out, is 100% ready to go in Week 2 and he'll need to keep his high-flying offense moving in top gear vs. this tough Spartans defensive unit. Note that Oregon had zero punts in Week 1, while also racking up 485 rushing yards against Eastern Washington. This is a classic matchup of different dominating styles, the Ducks incredible offense vs. the Spartans dominating defense. As this game wares on, we simply feel that Oregon's athleticism will be too much for Michigan State to handle; also note that the Ducks are 6-3 ATS their last nine on the road, while the Spartans are just 1-2 ATS in their last three as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. Play on OREGON.
AAA Sports |
09-12-15 |
South Florida v. Florida State -28.5 | Top | 14-34 |
Loss | -110 | 137 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida State.
We look for Jimbo Fisher and the Florida State Seminoles to lay the hammer down on Saturday morning. Fisher actually scheduled scrimmages for 11:30 AM throughout the preseason, so there's no question that his team is already in a routine for this contest: "Everything we did was 11:30. Be up and have a pregame meal at 7:30 (a.m.) and everything else. That was part of it because I knew it would be something different," Fisher said. USF has seen better days, once a program that could slay the larger schools, the Bulls have lost seven straight vs. ranked teams, including 30-17 to Florida State in Tampa in 2012. FSU QB Everett Golson looked sharp in last week's 59-16 destruction of Texas State, throwing for 302 yards and four TD's, completing passes to nine different receivers. The Bulls turn to Quinton Flowers who will be making his third start, he looked pretty good in a 51-3 defeat of Florida A&M, throwing for 141 yards, rushing for 63 more, to go along with three total TD's. Ultimately though, we simply can't see SFU's defensive unit being able to slow down the FSU run attack, one player to keep your eyes on is Seminoles' RB Dalvin Cook who had 156 yards in the opener, including 122 in the first half (note that Cook has four straight 100-yard games and is averaging 6.5 YPC). Also note that from a trend based stand point, this play is about as strong as you could possibly ask for, as USF is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and 0-2 ATS the last two season vs. ACC opponents, while FSU is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range and 8-7 ATS in its last 15 in front of the home town crowd. The situation, the numbers and the trends do indeed point to the SEMINOLES as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports |
09-10-15 |
Louisiana Tech +1.5 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 38-41 |
Loss | -110 | 99 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Louisiana Tech.
We played and cashed with Western Kentucky in Week 1, but we feel that the Hilltoppers will come up short here and look for Louisiana Tech to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Bulldogs actually beat the Tops by 49 points in 2014 and while this will hardly be a cake-walk, we believe that LT has all the pieces in place to gut out a SU and ATS victory today as well. The Bulldogs looked sharp in last week's destruction of the Jaguars, dropping 52 first-half points and resting their starters the rest of the way. WKU barely pulled off the victory vs. Vandy last week, the fact that the Bulldogs' starters rested the second half is a huge situational factor which we can take advantage of. Some times the revenge factor is something that can be completely over-rated, and that's the case here we feel; note that Tech QB Jeff Driskel wasn't even a part of the 2014 win: “We know that this team is probably going to be the best team we’re going to play all year so we have to come ready to play,” WKU safety Marcus Ward said yesterday. What some may have forgotten about last year's blowout was how good the Bulldogs looked defensively, they'd force four INT's and register three sacks in WKU's most lopsided loss of the season. If this was late October, the short turn around would be a factor that we could not ignore, but because it's just Week 2 and the fact that Tech has known all summer long that they'd have to deal with this situation, we don't foresee this being an issue whatsoever. Also note that from a trend based stand point, they simply don't get much stronger than this as Louisiana Tech is 11-6 ATS in its last 17 when playing with six of less days of rest and 4-1 ATS its last five when playing as a road favorite, while Western Kentucky is 7-9 ATS in its last 16 when playing with six or less days rest. Play on LOUISIANA TECH.
AAA Sports |
09-07-15 |
Ohio State v. Virginia Tech +11 | Top | 42-24 |
Loss | -110 | 792 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Virginia Tech.
Ohio State opens the year as the favorite to repeat as national champion, but winning back-to-back titles is obviously easier said than done. Urban Meyer's team is loaded with talent and has all the tools in place to make a serious run at another championship, but we think the team will suffer a small hang-over in the opener and will leave the back door open just enough for the home side to sneak through.
A 6-6 campaign saved Virginia Tech from missing the postseason for the first time since 1992 last year and a bowl victory kept alive a streak of 22 consecutive winning seasons. That said, it's going to once again be a tough season for the Hokies, who will be doing everything in their power to keep their opener within striking distance down the stretch.
The Buckeyes:
Ohio State has three different experienced QB's to choose from this year, as well as star RB Ezekiel Elliot and four returning starters along the offensive line. The team also has plenty of weapons at the WR position. This is a unit which will once again put points on the board at a prodigious rate. The Buckeyes defense was good last year, not great. Opponents actually averaged 5 yards per play, but the unit should once again be one of the best in the country, with Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Joey Bosa leading the way.
The Hokies:
There is some room for optimism if you're a VT fan though, offensive coordinator Scot Loeffler had to deal with youth and injuries last year, but enters his third season with all of his major pieces back, including QB Michael Brewer, who threw for 18 TD's and 2,692 yards in 2014. Brewer is clearly more experienced now and he does have some talented players around him, including receivers Isaiah Ford and Cam Philips, who combined for 96 catches, 1,207 yards and nine TD's in 2014. More good news for the Hokies, 2013 leading rusher Trey Edmunds is healthy again, he'll be teamed with JC Coleman, who rushed for 468 yards in the final four games last season. A big question mark last year was the offensive line, but the five man unit is rounding into shape this spring, particularly LG Wyatt Teller. The defense is a strength, the Hokies have four starting DL who have earned All-ACC recognition in their careers. Keep your eyes on Dadi Nicolas and Ken Ekanem, who combined for 18.5 sacks and 33 tackles for a loss last year, the most productive combo in the ACC. The secondary has some holes to fill, but freak athletes like Kendall Fuller play at an All-American level. VT likes to rush the passer and the team is set to once again bring the heat.
The bottom line:
For the first time in the last three years, the Hokies really do have a legitimate shot at competing in the Coastal Division again, coach Frank Beamer has a fully functioning offense and his defense should be even better this season from last.
What more can we say about Ohio State which hasn't literally been said a thousand times at this point by every expert in the country, the team is stacked from top to bottom and its main obstacle this year will be to try and maintain a competitive edge from week to week.
While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the national champs, all signs do indeed point to a comfortable back door cover for the HOKIES.
AAA Sports |
09-06-15 |
Purdue v. Marshall -7 | Top | 31-41 |
Win | 100 | 744 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Marshall.
The Thundering Herd would lose 67-66 to WKU in overtime for their only loss in 2014 and with a favorable schedule and many skilled players returning, the team will look to duplicate that success in 2015/16.
The Thundering Herd:
Marshall welcomes in transfer Michael Birdsong at QB to replace Rakeem Cato; Birdsong is 6'5" and 242 pounds and has a big arm, along with starting experience from James Madison. Birdsong benefits greatly from having a veteran group of athletic players around him, including senior RB Devon Johnson, who rushed for 1,767 yards and 17 TD's last year. Birdsong will also lean heavily on WR's Angelo Jean-Louis, Davonte Allen and Deon-Tay McManus, all serious threats to go deep. Three of four starters return to the offensive line and its expected to once again be a strength of the unit. The Thundering Herd turned the corner on the defensive side of the ball last year, finishing No. 18 in the country, but the team once again is expected to have its hands full this season as many key positions will need to be filled. Defensive coordinator Chuck Heater will be relying on players to quickly grasp his concepts, but regardless of that, the biggest concern for the team will be trying to establish a proven pass rusher.
The Boilermakers:
In Darrell Hazell's second year as coach, Purdue showed some marked improvement in 2014/15, but the end result was still just four wins overall and none at home in Big Ten play. But with 16 starters returning, there is some room for optimism. That said, it's still going to be tough for the Boilermakers to climb out of the cellar in the tough Big Ten West Division. QB Austin Appleby is back, he started the final seven games of 2014 and completed at least 50 percent of his passes in only two of four games. Appleby will have a short leash this year, with hopefuls David Blough and Elijah Sindelar waiting on the side lines. Purdue also needs to replace its top two RB's and turns to promising freshmen Markell Jones and partner Keyante Green. Purdue's defense was a weak point last year, 12 opponents would score 30 points or more, but the unit does return some experienced players in key positions, including MLB Ja'Whaun Bentley, who made 76 tackles as a freshman. You'll also want to track Frankie Williams, who made 74 tackles and who had three INT's as a junior, earning All-Big Ten second-team honors.
The bottom line:
A Conference USA Championship and a potential New Year's Six bowl berth is absolutely in the cards for the Thundering Herd this year, Birdsong would seem to be the perfect fit for an offense that has averaged over 500 yards per game over the last three seasons and if the defense is able to bring anything to the table, and combined with their soft schedule, these lofty dreams could very well become a reality.
Purdue simply has too many question marks on both sides of the ball and draws an incredibly tough road contest to open the year here, we simply can't see the Boilermakers keeping pace with Marshall's high-flying offense and expect the THUNDERING HERD to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
AAA Sports |
09-05-15 |
Arkansas State v. USC -28 | Top | 6-55 |
Win | 100 | 733 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on USC.
14 starters return from last season's 9-4 team for USC, the unit would average 35.8 PPG in 2014. No big surprise, the Trojan's offensive unit will once again be the team's main strength this year. If the defense can catch up to the offense, then USC has the potential to make some noise in 2015/16.
The Trojans:
USC's dynamic offense is led by QB Cody Kessler, who benefits greatly in being surrounded by one of the Pac-12's top offensive lines and receiving units. Kessler was brilliant last year, he'd complete 69.7 percent of his passes while throwing for 39 TD's and only five INT's. Kessler's main weapons this year will be Nelson Agholor, along with JuJu Smith and Steven Mitchell. Javorious Allen is gone from RB, but Justin Davis is expected to step in without a hitch. And as mentioned off the top, the offensive line is one of the best in the nation, led by Max Turek at center, it's a relentless and physical group. The defense will be out to fill the big void left by All-American Leonard Williams, he was possibly the best defensive end in the country. That said however, the defensive unit has plenty of talent, keep your eyes on Su'a Cravens, who led the Trojans in INT's and tackles for a loss last year. The rest of the unit benefits from experienced players at all key positions.
The Red Wolves:
Under rookie head coach Blake Anderson, Arkansas State would go 7-6 last year. The Red Wolves have finished with a winning record in four straight seasons and each has ended with a game in the GoDaddy Bowl. Anderson is hoping to take the team to the next level in 2015/16 though and has to be feeling optimistic with nine starters returning on offense, including senior QB Fredi Knighten, who completed 62 percent of his pass and accounted for 4,000 plus yards of offensive production. The RB's will battle it out for the No. 1 spot, but the receiving corp is where the unit's strength truly lies, it returns six starters, led by Tres Houston, Dijon Paschal and JD McKissic. The main weakness on the offensive side of the ball is the line, it struggled to move the ball effectively in short-yardage situations last year. Arkansas State also struggled defensively in the second half last year, opponents would score 28 rushing TD's over the final seven games, while averaging 283 rushing yards during that span. The Red Wolves are hoping transfers Waylon Roberson, Robert Mondie and Jake Swalley will help the unit turn the corner this year though. The secondary returns two safeties, but that group did suffer significant losses from last year to this.
The bottom line:
The Trojans will clearly not have any issues putting points on the board, the team will however only go so far as its defense can take it this season. So here's the perfect opponent to work out some of the kinks against! We're expecting the home side to come out throwing and look for its determined defensive unit to try and make a statement as well, all the ingredients are indeed in place for a massive lop-sided rout. Play on USC.
AAA Sports |
09-05-15 |
BYU v. Nebraska -4.5 | Top | 33-28 |
Loss | -110 | 725 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Nebraska.
Bo Pelini is out and Mike Riley is in, Nebraska needed to make some changes heading into 2015 and with Riley the team has that. Pelini would routinely achieve nine and ten win seasons, so despite having a lot to work with, Riley will definitely have his work cut out for him.
The Cornhuskers:
QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. returns and he'll be running Riley's pro-style offense, Armstrong is expected to be more of a pocket-passer this year, but is a legitimate dual threat after finishing as the team's second-leading rusher last season. Armstrong will be sharing the load with RB's Terrell Newby and Imani Cross, both who will see a lot of time in this game and throughout the season as they look to fill the void left by All-American Ameer Abudullah. All of these players benefit from playing in front of a solid offensive line which is built around LT Alex Lewis. Maliek Collins led the team in tackles for a loss last year and while there are a few holes to fill, the unit as a whole looks solid and seems ready to transition to new defensive coordinators Mark Banker's system without a hitch.
The Cougars:
BYU has a tough schedule, but will once again be led by superstar athlete Taysom Hill; last year the Cougars would open 4-0 and ranked No. 18 before QB Hill broke his leg vs. Utah State. After that tragedy the team would predictably lose four straight before then recovering to finish 8-5. Hill is a Heisman trophy candidate and is one of the nation's biggest dual threats. Jamaal Williams needs just 930 yards to become BYU's all-time leading rusher. The one weakness to the offensive unit is the depth on the line. The biggest weakness heading into the 2015 season will once again be on the defensive side of the ball, the Cougar's 55-48 double-OT loss to Memphis in the Miami Beach Bowl prompted coach Bronco Mendenhall to take over the defense again. Still, there are many holes to fill and big question marks in the secondary.
The bottom line:
Both teams will be hungry for a win, but Nebraska's non-conference schedule is crucial to its success this year with a game at Miami two weeks from now. We like the overall team depth that the HUSKERS bring to the table and can't see how BYU's defense will be able to slow down Armstrong and company, lay the short points.
AAA Sports |
09-03-15 |
Michigan +6 v. Utah | Top | 17-24 |
Loss | -105 | 683 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Michigan.
Jim Harbaugh's first season as head coach of the Michigan Wolverines gets underway on opening night of the 2015/16 NCAAF season and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, we expect the crafty bench boss to find a way to get the job done and while we would not at all be surprised by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
The Wolverines:
Harbaugh is out to better a 5-7 season in which Michigan missed playing a bowl game. The visitors come to town hungry as well, there's no doubt that the Wolverine's won't have forgotten the embarrassing 26-10 setback to Utah in Ann Arbor a year ago. Harbaugh will have a firm game plan in place to open the season, but it will take some time to hash out the true No. 1 QB, as Alex Malzone, Shane Morris, Jake Rudock and Zach Gentry are all expected to battle it out. The backs and offensive line will also be a work in progress, with many talented players duking it out for a permanent position.
The Utes:
Can you say letdown spot anyone? For us, this sets up as a classic spot wager as Utah comes in off its best season as a Pac-12 member, notching nine wins for the first time since 2010 and finishing with a winning conference record for the first time since moving over from the Mountain West. However, despite the optimism heading into the 2015/16 season, there's also some room for worry as both defensive coordinator Kalani Sitake and offensive coordinator Dave Christensen left in lateral moves. Travis Wilson will be back under center this year, he lost the job to Kendal Thompson half way through the season in 2014, but regained it after Thompson went down with injury. Wilson will once again be leaning heavily on RB Devontae Booker. The biggest concern for Utah though is on the defensive side of the ball as the team has to replace Nate Orchard, who had 18.5 sacks a season ago.
The Bottom Line:
Let's face it, Michigan would be very lucky to go 8-4 this year, but a 7-5 or even 6-6 season is more likely. And that means that every game is ultra-important for Harbaugh who will at the very least be looking to reach a bowl in his first year. We don't expect Michigan to run away with this game, but we feel that the Wolverines will be able to take advantage of a somewhat complacent Utah team that has a lack of experience at receiver and in the secondary and think that the level of intensity that the visitors will be playing with will be the difference; look for the WOLVERINES to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch.
AAA Sports |
09-03-15 |
Western Kentucky +2.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 14-12 |
Win | 100 | 682 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Western Kentucky.
Vanderbilt has opened its season at home on a Thursday night for three consecutive years and all three have resulted in a loss. We don't agree with the oddsmakers whatsoever in this one though, as in our opinion, Western Kentucky is vastly superior in every facet of the game.
The Hilltoppers:
WKU possessed one of the nations top offensive units, but it failed miserably on the defensive side last season. Still, the team would finish 8-5 overall and would go on to beat Central Michigan 49-48 in the Popeyes Bahamas Bowl. No big surprise here, the offense is once again going to be the team's strength in 2015/16 and the defense is expected to be much better after Head Coach Jeff Brohm focused primarily on that side of the ball in the Spring. The offense will once again be directed by QB Brandon Doughty who was granted a sixth-year of eligibility by the NCAA and who is the reigning Conference USA player of the year after leading the country with 4,344 passing yards and 44 TD's in 2014. The Hilltoppers also had more good news in the offseason when UAB decided to shutdown its football program at the end of last year, making its players available for transfer and immediate eligibility. WKU would quickly grab senior Jontavious Morris, who immediately upgrades the defensive line and the defensive unit as a whole.
The Commodores:
Derek Mason's start as Head Coach got off to a rocky start in 2014/15 as Vanderbilt would win just three games overall, while going a miserable 0-8 in the SEC. While the team should definitely show improvement from this year to last, it won't happen over night or in one game as the offense was one of the worst in the nation in 2014, finishing dead last in both total offense and scoring offense by a wide margin in the SEC. In fact, Vandy would score only nine offensive TD's in its eight SEC games overall. The biggest issue for the team last year will once again be its biggest issue this season: the QB position. New Offensive Coordinator Andy Ludwig is still trying to decide who will start as neither Wade Freebeck or Johnny McCrary have played well enough to stake a claim as the No. 1 guy. The offensive line was atrocious, as the team averaged a league-worst 3.4 YPC, while also struggling to protect the QB. Vanderbilt also struggled in pass defense, giving up a league-high 7.6 yards per attempt and intercepting only six passes. The Commodores will benefit from more experience on both sides of the ball in 2014/15, but all signs once again point to a long and frustrating season.
The Bottom Line:
Even in the stacked SEC, Doughty is one of the top quarterbacks that Vandy will face all year. We simply can't see the Commodores matching pace with the Tops high-octane offense and while we obviously wouldn't be surprised by an outright victory, we feel that the savvy move is to grab the points. Play on WESTERN KENTUCKY.
AAA Sports |
09-03-15 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. St Louis Rams -2 | Top | 24-17 |
Loss | -110 | 79 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on the St. Louis Rams.
We have played on the Chiefs in Weeks 1, 2 and 3 of the preseason, they're 3-0 SU and ATS (KC would beat the Seahawks 14-13 in Week 2, which was a win for us as we played early and got a "pick."). This week however we're fading the Chiefs as we expect the visitors to simply go through the motions and to hopefully escape without any significant injuries. Conversely, St. Louis can not be feeling comfortable with its performance so far in the preseason, it's 0-3 SU/ATS, including losing 24-14 at home as a 2.5 point favorite to the Colts last week. While the starters will see little to no time whatsoever, clearly the Rams still have a lot to work on this week, we expect the team to make the most of the familiar surroundings and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night; play on ST. LOUIS.
AAA Sports |
09-03-15 |
Houston Texans v. Dallas Cowboys +3.5 | Top | 14-21 |
Win | 100 | 79 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Dallas Cowboys.
For almost every team, the fourth week of the preseason is a "throw away" contest, starters see little to no time whatsoever, leaving the backups and wannabe's to fight for any remaining spots. For some teams though that have struggled with consistency over the first three weeks, the fourth week can still be an important one, especially for morale as it looks to build on something positive before heading into the regular season. And that's the case here as the Dallas Cowboys come into this game having gone 0-3 SU/ATS so far in the preseason, including a humbling 28-14 defeat at home to the Vikings as 2-point favorites last week. Conversely, the Texans have to be feeling pretty confident with the way they've performed thus far, we look for the visitors to simply go through the motions this evening after going 2-1 SU/ATS to this point, including a convincing 27-13 annihilation in New Orleans last week as a 3.5-point underdog. It's as simple as that, this game will clearly "mean" more to the home side and we look for the COWBOYS to make the most of it.
AAA Sports |
09-03-15 |
Carolina Panthers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -1 | Top | 23-6 |
Loss | -110 | 79 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL ASSASSIN on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
For almost every team, the fourth week of the preseason is a "throw away" contest, starters see little to no time whatsoever, leaving the backups and wannabe's to fight for any remaining spots. For some teams though that have struggled with consistency over the first three weeks, the fourth week can still be an important one, especially for morale as the it looks to build on something positive before heading into the regular season. And that's the case here, for the most part the Pittsburgh Steelers have looked pretty inept in the preseason, a 14-3 loss to Minnesota in the Hall of Fame game was followed by a 23-21 setback in Week 1 in Jacksonville. Week 2 saw the Steelers blow out a vanilla Green Bay team at home, while the all important Week 3 "dress rehearsal" was a blowout 43-19 loss at Buffalo last Saturday. Carolina certainly has nothing to hang its head about with its performance so far in the preseason though, a 25-24 win at Buffalo in Week 1 was followed up with a 31-30 victory at home over Miami. And then last week Carolina would go blow for blow with New England, finally succumbing 17-16 to the defending Super Bowl champions. It's as simple as that, we feel that all signs point to this game meaning a lot more to the home side. Play on the STEELERS.
AAA Sports |
09-03-15 |
South Carolina -3 v. North Carolina | Top | 17-13 |
Win | 100 | 724 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on South Carolina.
After an up and down 2014/15, we think Steve Spurrier and South Carolina come in with a definite game-plan today and we expect this team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night (note that this is a neutral field game, being played in Charlotte).
The Gamecocks:
The defense took a predictable downward turn last year after losing Jadeveon Clowney and Kelcy Quarles. The offense held up though with an experienced backup QB and a star RB, but the team still finished just 7-6. Note that South Carolina let four SEC games slip away in the fourth quarter. Spurrier was busy in the offseason of course and while the defense still has a long way to go, it has the potential to be a Top 40 unit, he signed a load of JUCO linemen and brought in old friend Jon Hoke who spent the last 13 seasons as an NFL defensive backs coach; so combined with the eight members of last year's 10-man rotation, we expect a significant up-turn in 2015/16. And we don't predict any drop off in offensive production either, the Gamecocks haven't averaged less than 30 points per game since 2009, sophomore Connor Mitch and freshman Lorenzo Nunez will each be given plenty of opportunity this season. Seven SC wideouts and TE's were targeted at least ten times last fall, Pharaoh Cooper can expect 100-plus targets again this year.
The Tar Heels:
North Carolina is almost always predicted to be the winner of the ACC and almost every year it falls short. Last season UNC finished with a 6-7 record, 4-4 in conference and got hammered by Rutgers in the Quick Lane Bowl. QB Marquise Williams is back, he led the team in rushing with 783 yards last year, but RB TJ Logan, who had just 600 yards and three rushing TD's, will be leaned upon as the main back this season. The offensive line was a joke in 2014/15 allowing 26 sacks, but it does return eight players with experience. Like South Carolina, the biggest weakness for the Tar Heels last year was their poor defensive play, the unit would give up an average of 497.8 YPG, ranking it 9th worst in the entire country. The rushing defense gave up 240.5 yards per game, ranking it 120th in the NCAA. The defense will once again be a work in progress this season.
The Bottom Line:
What North Carolina can rely on though is a weak schedule, the team avoids the major powerhouses like Clemson, Florida State and Louisville, the only two tough contests it has to worry about is this one and a road game against Georgia Tech. Win or lose this game, UNC is almost assuredly heading to another bowl game.
Digging a little deeper into South Carolina's numbers from last year sees that it was just 18 points from finishing the regular season at 10-2 and six points from 4-8 (including the bowl game, the Gamecocks played in eight contests decided by ten points or fewer). South Carolina dropped its first game last year (which ended up being one of its worst of the season), so this is a great situational factor that we can take advantage of as Spurrier will be out to make a statement in this one as to get the new campaign off on the right foot.
In our opinion, SOUTH CAROLINA is the better team and it has much more to play for tonight, and with those two factors working in our favor, all signs do indeed point to a comfortable cover.
AAA Sports |
08-30-15 |
Arizona Cardinals v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 30-23 |
Loss | -120 | 106 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Oakland Raiders.
The Cards are 0-2 in the preseason, while the Raiders are 1-1. Arizona's offensive line struggled to move the ball against Kansas City last week and it failed miserably in protecting the QB vs. the Chargers. The Cardinals are also decimated in the linebacking unit and we feel they'll once again have their hands full with Derek Carr and the healthier home side. Both teams starters are expected to play the entire first half. Oakland's lone loss this year came last week in a hard-fought 20-12 setback to the surging Vikings, who including the HOF Game, are now 4-0 in the preseason after dispatching the Cowboys in Dallas yesterday. Carr and Amari Cooper have already hooked up on a couple of dazzling plays, while Michael Crabtree will also be leaned upon heavily this year. We can also expect to see another big dose of RB Latavius Murray, who had 20 yards on four carries including a 2-yard TD run in the setback to the Vikes. The bottom line is, we think the Raiders offense will be too much for the banged up Arizona defense. Simple as that. Play on OAKLAND.
AAA Sports |
08-30-15 |
Detroit Tigers v. Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 2-9 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Toronto Blue Jays.
A massive pitching mismatch combined with a red hot home side lineup adds up to a lop-sided destruction today, it's time to pull the trigger on a run-line selection. The visitors hand the ball to confirmed "gas can" Alfredo Simon (11-8, 4.89 ERA) who was shelled for eight runs off nine hits over 4 1/3's innings in an 8-7 loss to the Angels on Thursday. Simon has been horrible on the road this year as well, posting a ballooned 5.77 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with Mark Buehrle (13-5, 3.31 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs in a no-decision vs. the Rangers on Tuesday. Poor outings have been few and far between for the veteran southpaw though and he the Jays have to be feeling pretty confident in this position as Buehrle is a near-perfect 7-1 with a respectable 3.11 ERA in front of the home town crowd this year. With a chance to distance themselves further from the Yanks, we like Buehrle to bounce back from his worst effort of the season and for the JAYS to continue the mashing.
AAA Sports |
08-28-15 |
Tennessee Titans v. Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 | Top | 10-34 |
Win | 100 | 59 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* FRIDAY NIGHT SCORPION on the Kansas City Chiefs.
AAA Sports will have their full analysis for this selection posted shortly. No later than 6 hours before game time. |
08-24-15 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1 | Top | 11-25 |
Win | 100 | 172 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* M.N.F. GAME OF THE MONTH on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Sometimes we feel that it's necessary to completely dissect a game, looking at trends, motivational and situational factors as well as individual player matchups and weather reports etc. And in other contests we believe a more common sense approach is the best way to handicap a game and that's the case here. Which of these team's "wants" this one more? It's a fair question. In our opinion, this is a fantastic situational play as the Bengals come to town off a satisfying 23-10 win at home over the Giants in Week 1, making this Week 2 matchup a contest which wouldn't be too hard to envision the visitors "looking past" with a game at home vs. Chicago in the all important "dress rehearsal" in Week 3 next week. Conversely, Tampa Bay will be eager to perform in its first game in front of the home town crowd, a spirited effort in Week 1 resulted in a 26-16 loss to Minnesota in Week 1, but it was just a late TD away from covering with the 3.5 points it was afforded in that one. And for us, it's as simple as that for this GAME OF THE MONTH pick, the situation is overwhelmingly working in favor of the home side in our opinion, play on the BUCCANEERS.
AAA Sports |