02-28-16 |
Blazers v. Pacers -4.5 | Top | 111-102 |
Loss | -105 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
This is 10* COAST-TO-COAST EXPRESS on the Indiana Pacers. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Scheduling and motivation levels: No need to overanalyze this one, as good as Damian Lillard has been and despite the Blazers having won 12 of their last 14, Portland comes into this one off a very satisfying 103-95 victory at Chicago just last night. For the Pacers though, this is an ultra-important game as they hit the road tomorrow for a five game trip, starting off in Cleveland. Not only will they be looking to take advantage of home floor, but they’re also out for revenge after falling 123-111 to Portland on December 3rd. It also wouldn’t be too hard to imagine the Blazers getting caught looking ahead to two whole days off after tonight’s game before continuing their marathon road trip at New York, Boston, Toronto and Detroit respectively. ATS statistics: Note that Portland is a poor 4-8 ATS this season when playing on back-to-back days, while Indiana is 19-8 ATS vs. teams with winning records and 8-5 ATS this year as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range. The bottom line: The situational, motivational and trend based factors all point to the PACERS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
02-28-16 |
Hornets v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 76-87 |
Win | 100 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* Southeast Division GAME OF THE YEAR on the Atlanta Hawks. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: History is against them: There’s no question that the Hornets have been playing great of late, but note that they’ve never posted five wins on a six-game road trip in franchise history. This one definitely sets up as a letdown spot for the home side after its thrilling 96-95 victory over Indiana on Friday, where Kemba Walker scored a layup with just 2.4 seconds left. If history is any precedence: Atlanta has to be loving its chances for a victory today as it’s gone 15-2 in the series in front of the home town crowd since 2007. Revenge factor: Charlotte beat the Hawks 107-84 on January 13th. ATS statistics: Note that the Hornets are just 17-18 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest, while Atlanta is 20-17 ATS in the same position. The bottom line: Charlotte has been playing extremely well, while the Hawks for the most part have been struggling with offensive consistency. And that’s why we love this selection, it’s a great situational play as we expect the visitors to come in a tiny bit complacent, while the home side will be risking life and limb to try and string a couple wins together. Play on ATLANTA. AAA Sports |
02-26-16 |
Columbia +9.5 v. Princeton | Top | 83-88 |
Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Columbia. We don't subscribe to any single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors: Revenge: Two of the top teams in the Ivy League go head to head tonight, The Columbia Lions have won two straight and four of five, while Princeton has won six straight. So where’s the advantage you ask? We think the “revenge factor” is a major one today, the Tigers have won four straight and nine of the last ten in the series, including an 88-83 OT victory in Columbia on February 13th. ATS statistics: Note that Columbia is already 2-1 ATS this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and 4-2 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival, while Princeton is just 2-3 ATS at home this season and only 2-3 ATS off a win vs. a conference rival. The bottom line: These teams are very evenly matched on both ends of the floor, but the revenge factor and these strong and relevant ATS trends, combined with what we feel to be a very healthy spread afforded to it, all do indeed make COLUMBIA the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
02-22-16 |
Coyotes v. Capitals -1.5 | Top | 2-3 |
Loss | -100 | 9 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Washington Capitals. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Alexander Ovechkin: The Capitals’ super star has nine goals in his last seven games and 24 of his 38 goals over the last 26 contests. He’s also fared extremely well against Arizona throughout his career, posting four goals and eight assists in ten career meetings, including a goal and three helpers in this most recent home matchup. Arizona road woes: The Coyotes have lost three straight away from friendly confines, getting outscored 14-5 in the process. A sub-par power play is definitely to blame as Arizona is just 1 for 16 with the man advantage over its last four on the road. ATS statistics: Note that Arizona is just 8-12 (-1.6 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest and only 8-15 (-5.6 units) in all non-conference games, while Washington is 11-5 (+4.4 units) in all non-conference games and 22-7 (+10 units) vs. teams with losing records. The bottom line: All signs point to an epic lop-sided destruction, play on the CAPITALS on the PUCK-LINE. AAA Sports |
02-21-16 |
Lakers v. Bulls -7.5 | Top | 115-126 |
Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* TNT SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Chicago Bulls. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Injured legend: The Lakers have looked a lot more competitive of late, especially for bettors as they’ve covered in six straight games. A big reason has been the improved play of Kobe Bryant, who has averaged 24.9 over his last seven. Note though that Bryant would dislocate his right middle finger in Friday’s 119-113 loss to San Antonio and while the aging super star will get the start today, we don’t expect him to be nearly as effective. With their main weapon and offensive focal point relegated as a second or third option tonight, we have a hard time seeing the overachieving visitors keeping pace with this hungry home side. Rising Bulls?: Chicago stumbled into the break, but looked great on both ends of the floor in a 116-106 home over Toronto on Friday that ended a five-game skid. Pau Gasol, who played 6.5 years with Bryant in LA, would barely miss posting a triple-double with 18 points, 11 boards and nine assists. Gasol dominated his former team on January 28th as well with 21 points, 12 boards and seven assists in the Bulls’ 114-91 victory. If history is any precedence: The Bulls have to like their chances today in being able to string together a couple of convincing victories as they’ve won seven of the last nine in the series, including the last four on their home floor. ATS statistics: Note that LA is just 5-7 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more, while Chicago is 12-9 ATS in all non-conference contests. The bottom line: With their leader injured, we expect the Lakers to come out flat tonight, it’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the BULLS, lay the points. AAA Sports |
02-21-16 |
Pelicans v. Pistons -5 | Top | 111-106 |
Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Detroit Pistons. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Uphill battle: Despite beating the 76er’s 121-114 on Friday and going 10-7 since January 13th, the Pelicans face a daunting task in their quest for a second-straight playoff appearance, right now they’re 12th in the Western Conference, six games behind Houston and Utah for eighth place. On the cusp: Conversely, despite a brutal stretch in which they’ve lost four straight and seven of their last ten overall, the Pistons still sit just 1.5 games back of Charlotte and Chicago for the final two spots in the East. Detroit got a much needed boost via trades before the deadline, acquiring Tobias Harris from the Magic for Brandon Jennings and Erlan Ilyasova, while also getting Donatas Motiejunas and veteran guard Marcus Thornton from the Rockets: "You're going to have to take some risk in order to get better," Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy said. "There are no deals where there's no risk and we feel like this was a risk we could handle." Revenge factor: Detroit will be looking to atone for a lacklustre 115-99 setback at New Orleans on January 21st. In fact, the Pelicans have won three straight in Detroit and haven’t lost to the Pistons whatsoever since February 2012. ATS statistics: Note that New Orleans is just 5-13 ATS in non-conference games this season and only 9-12 ATS after scoring 105 points or more, while Detroit is 4-3 ATS this year as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range and in 16-9 ATS in all home games. The bottom line: With a game tomorrow night at Cleveland, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the home side and we expect this determined play to ultimately prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest. Lay the points on the PISTONS. AAA Sports |
02-20-16 |
Oregon State v. Oregon -10.5 | Top | 81-91 |
Loss | -105 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Oregon. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: It’s payback time: Oregon State beat the Ducks 70-57 in Corvallis on January 3rd, Oregon had come into that game having won four straight and seven of eight in the series previous to that. Oregon is 88th in the nation in averaging 77.3 PPG. Letdown spot: After winning three straight, the Beavers got spanked 83-71 at Cal last Saturday. Momentum is hard to gain, but it’s even harder to get it back once lost. Note that Oregon State is ranked 235th in the nation in putting up an average of 71 PPG. ATS statistics: Oregon State is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 on the road vs. teams with a home winning percentage of at least .600 and only 2-10 ATS in their last 12 on the road vs. teams with winning home records, while Oregon is 8-1 ATS in its last nine at home vs. teams with a road winning percentage of below .400, 8-1 ATS in its last nine at home vs. teams with a losing road record and 6-1 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records overall. The bottom line: Oregon is 15-0 in Eugene this season, while Oregon State is just 3-5 on the road. With a chance to avenge the earlier loss to their arch-rival, we look for the DUCKS to put the pedal to the metal from start to finish. AAA Sports |
02-20-16 |
Florida v. South Carolina -2.5 | Top | 69-73 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on South Carolina. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Motivation: The Gators are 17-9 and have won four of their last six. The Gamecocks are 21-5, but have lost two straight and three of their last five. For us, this sets up nicely, it’s a natural letdown spot for the visitors, while the home side will be desperate to prove that it’s opening season surge was no fluke. Look deeper into the numbers: If you look a little closer at Florida’s 17-9 record, you realize that it’s just 1-5 vs. ranked teams this season, a lone victory came over WVU in January. ATS statistics: Note that Florida is just 3-4 ATS this year off a win vs. a conference rival and only 1-4 ATS in February, while South Carolina is 8-3 ATS at home and 14-6 ATS when playing the role of favorite. The bottom line: There’s no way this game means more to the Gators than it does to the GAMECOCKS, we’re backing the hungry and desperate home side. AAA Sports |
02-19-16 |
Harvard +7.5 v. Columbia | Top | 76-90 |
Loss | -110 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Harvard. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Desperation breeds motivation: The Crimson will be eager to break out of their funk, having dropped six of their last seven. Revenge factor: Harvard had won five straight in this series before Columbia took the first meeting of this season, 57-55 on the road on January 30th. Tough defensive play: Harvard has been all over the map as far as its consistency on the offensive end of the floor, but one constant has been its defensive play, it allows an average of just 66 points a game, ranked 48th in the country. Classic letdown spot: The Lions are 6-2 in Ivy League play, but come in off a tough loss to Princeton last time out. It’s hard to gain momentum and once lost, it’s even harder to get it back. ATS statistics: Note that Harvard is 2-1 ATS in its last three in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Columbia is just 3-4 ATS vs. conference opponents and only 2-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd this season. The bottom line: A hungry HARVARD team catches Columbia complacent and while we won’t be so bold as to call for the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. AAA Sports |
02-18-16 |
Spurs v. Clippers +3.5 | Top | 86-105 |
Win | 100 | 32 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the LA Clippers. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Significant injuries: The Spurs will once again be without the services of big man Tim Duncan and veteran Manu Ginobili tonight. Home court advantage: The Spurs are 28-0 at home, but a mere 17-8 on the road. Obviously that’s still a great record, but it’s definitely been more of an adventure for San Antonio whenever it’s played away from friendly confines. LA is 17-8 at home and with a game vs. the Warriors on deck next, we’re expecting the team to leave everything it has on the floor tonight in trying to secure the upset. Revenge factor: San Antonio won the first matchup of the year, a 115-107 victory on December 18th. ATS statistics: Note that the Spurs are interestingly just 4-5 ATS in their last nine vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while the Clippers are 9-7 ATS in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and 6-3 ATS in their last nine vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per game. The bottom line: Even without Blake Griffin in the lineup tonight, we love the CLIPPERS in this spot, there are a bunch of different situational and strong trend based factors working in their favor today and while we obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. AAA Sports |
02-16-16 |
Buffalo +7.5 v. Akron | Top | 70-80 |
Loss | -110 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Buffalo. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few simple common sense factors: Revenge: Buffalo fell to Akron 75-71 on January 5th. Motivation: After back-to-back SU/ATS losses, the Bulls will be hungry here to break back into the win column. Conversely, after surging to seven straight SU/ATS victories, Akron is coming off an 80-79 loss at Northern Illinois as a 2-point favorite. Once momentum has been lost, there’s no question that it’s difficult to get it back. Look ahead spot: On top of this being a prime letdown spot, it also sets up as a classic look-ahead scenario with a game at Kent State on Friday. ATS statistics: Note that Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent and 4-1 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more, while Akron is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home fav in the 6.5 to nine points range and already 0-2 ATS this year off a loss vs. a conference rival. The bottom line: While we won’t be so bold as to call for the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AAA Sports |
02-15-16 |
Maple Leafs v. Blackhawks -1.5 | Top | 2-7 |
Win | 106 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Blackhawks. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Motivation: After losing three straight at home, do you think the Blackhawks will “look past” the Leafs tonight, or look to take advantage of their transitioning opponent? Obviously the latter, it’ll be all hands on deck as Chicago looks to cap a frustrating home stand before then hitting the road. Leafs injury woes: Toronto comes in off a hugely satisfying 5-2 win at Vancouver on Saturday and with injuries to top forward James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri, Joffrey Lupul and with captain Dion Phaneuf having been shipped over to Ottawa on Tuesday, there’s no question in our minds that this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors. Woeful power play: The Leafs possess the league’s worst power play at 14.6 percent and they’re just 2 for 49 in their last 15 games. If history is any precedence: The Hawks have to be loving their chances today, they’ve won 10 of 12 in the series and five straight matches at the United Center. ATS statistics: Note that Toronto is just 4-7 (-2.1 units) after a win by two goals or more this year, while Chicago is 21-7 (+10 units) vs. teams with losing records and 5-1 (+3.9 units) after playing three consecutive home games. The bottom line: The Leafs are catching this hungry BLACKHAWKS team at the most inopportune time, all signs do indeed point to an epic lop-sided destruction. AAA Sports |
02-13-16 |
Texas v. Iowa State -6 | Top | 75-85 |
Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Iowa State. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Desperation breeds motivation: Iowa State is ranked 15th in the Nation, but has lost three of its last four. Not only will it be looking to break the slide, but it’ll also be out to avenge a 94-91 OT loss to the Longhorns back on January 12th. Suffice it to say, we believe the determination and focus that the home side plays with today will result in production on the court: "We had great chances to win down the stretch. We were up. We just didn't finish the game. That's the bottom line,” said Cyclones coach Steve Prohm about his team’s recent slide. The numbers don’t lie: Texas has been on quite a role of late, but we feel it is primed for a letdown here finally in facing this revenge minded home side and the numbers back up that assumption as the Longhorns are just 9-13 ATS their last 22 off a loss vs. a conference rival and just 4-5 ATS in their last nine as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range. ATS statistics: Note that Iowa State has dominated in this spot for bettors this season, going 4-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more and a perfect 2-0 ATS in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line: All of the factors listed absolutely make IOWA STATE the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
02-13-16 |
Oregon v. Stanford +6 | Top | 72-76 |
Win | 100 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Stanford. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Desperation breeds motivation: There is no doubt that the Cardinal will be playing with desperation today, they’ve lost four straight, both SU and ATS, most recently a 62-50 setback to Oregon State on Thursday. Conversely, we absolutely feel that this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Ducks, who after winning both SU and ATS in six straight games, would finally fall 83-63 at Cal as 1.5 points favs last time out. It’s hard to gain momentum back after losing it and suffice it to say, this one definitely sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors in our professional opinion. Revenge: Stanford has lost two straight in the series, both SU and ATS, most recently a 71-58 setback at Oregon on January 10th. ATS statistics: Note that the Cardinal are 17-3 SU the last 20 in this series when playing in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: It’s not too hard to imagine the 20-5 Ducks coming into this one a bit complacent as they hit a “vanilla” part of their schedule, with a game vs. the hapless Beavers next week and while we won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on STANFORD. AAA Sports |
02-11-16 |
Wizards v. Bucks -1 | Top | 92-99 |
Win | 100 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Milwaukee Bucks. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge: The Bucks fell 106-101 to Washington on January 13th and will be highly motivated to avoid the season series sweep, losing the first three meetings of the year. Momentum: Milwaukee played like a desperate team in its 112-111 win over the Celtics on Tuesday, breaking a stretch of five-straight losses. The Bucks would allow the C’s to battle back from 19 down in the fourth quarter, but were able to finally find a way to pull out the victory. If the team had lost that one, we’d likely be going the other way on this selection, but with the victory, we like Milwaukee to come in focused and confident tonight. ATS statistics: Note that Washington is just 1-3 ATS this year as a road dog of three points or less and only 13-15 ATS vs. poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while Milwaukee is 18-15 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and 13-9 ATS in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: With the All-Star break looming, we think the visitors get caught looking ahead to that time off, while the hungrier BUCKS take advantage and build off their latest victory. AAA Sports |
02-10-16 |
Kings -4 v. 76ers | Top | 114-110 |
Push | 0 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Sacramento Kings. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: “The Brain” stays: There were reports that coach George Karl was on his way out of Sacramento, but GM Vlade Divac has given him a second chance and with one last opportunity to secure a win after eight losses out of their last nine, we look for the “The Brain” and his team to rise to the occasion. Revenge: The hungry Kings will be eager to atone for a particularly low-spot of their season when they fell 110-105 to the 76ers at home on December 30th. DeMarcus Cousins: Keep your eyes on the big man, he’s averaging 31.0 points and 17.3 boards in his last three vs. Philadelphia. ATS statistics: Note that Sacramento is 5-3 ATS this year after three or more consecutive losses and 4-3 ATS after playing three consecutive road games, while Philadelphia is a horrible 11-13 ATS at home this season and only 2-3 ATS this year as a home dog of 3.5 to six points. The bottom line: We think a motivated and highly focused KINGS team finally comes to play a full four quarters and comfortably pulls away down the stretch for the ATS cover. AAA Sports |
02-09-16 |
Celtics v. Bucks +5.5 | Top | 111-112 |
Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Milwaukee Bucks. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Motivation levels: Boston is rolling, it’s won nine of its last ten, most recently a 128-119 victory over Sacramento on Sunday. That also included a hugely satisfying victory over Cleveland on Friday. The Bucks on the other hand will be playing with extreme desperation as they look to break a season-high five-game slide. Desperation breeds motivation while winning leads to contentedness. Revenge factor: The Bucks play with revenge today, they fell 99-83 at home to Boston on November 10th. Note that Milwaukee has in fact dropped two straight and seven of their last ten to the C’s in front of the home town crowd. Getting healthier: The home side expects a big boost today with the return from OJ Mayo, who has been sitting for 11 games with a hamstring injury (one other players to keep your eyes on today is Bucks’ centre Greg Monroe, who is averaging 20.5 points on 56.3 percent shooting over his last eight games). ATS statistics: Note that Boston is just 3-5 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories, while Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. The bottom line: The situational, motivational, personnel and trend based factors do all indeed point to the BUCKS as the sharp move in this contest. AAA Sports |
02-09-16 |
Michigan State v. Purdue -1.5 | Top | 81-82 |
Loss | -110 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG-TIGER on Purdue. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge factor: To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as MSU has won seven-straight in the series. Rebounding battle: These are a couple of the leagues best on the glass, as MSU leads the country at plus 12.8. Purdue has been dominant down low all year as well and we feel this will play a major factor in the outcome of this contest as the Boilermakers are third in the nation in rebounding differential at plus-11.8 and have been the only team to yet be out rebounded in a game. This negates the Spartans strength and tips the scales in favor of the home side. Even defensively: These teams are also a “wash” defensively, MSU leads the conference in almost every category, while Purdue is right behind in second. ATS statistics: Note that Michigan State is just 2-5 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while Purdue is 6-4 ATS in the same position. The bottom line: It’s hard to imagine Michigan State “looking past” Purdue today, but with a game vs. Indiana next Saturday, the team sitting just one spot ahead of it in the league standings, it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility. And combined with the other situational, motivational and trend based factors listed above, all signs do indeed point to the BOILERMAKERS as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
02-08-16 |
Notre Dame v. Clemson -1.5 | Top | 89-83 |
Loss | -115 | 32 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Clemson. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: A classic letdown spot: The Irish are coming off a huge 80-76 win over North Carolina and suffice it to say, all signs do indeed point to a classic letdown for the visitors. Revenge: Notre Dame is a perfect 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS in the series dating back to 2014, including an 81-67 victory March 7th, 2015. Hungry home side: The Tigers are coming off a loss to Virginia Tech and will be hungry to get back into the win column and finally break their run of futility to the Irish (note that Clemson does have good conference wins over Duke, Miami and Louisville this year). ATS statistics: Note that Notre Dame is just 1-3 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest and just 3-7 ATS after scoring 80 points or more, while Clemson is 9-2 ATS this season vs. the conference and 2-0 ATS when playing with one or less days rest. The bottom line: Behind their trademark tough defensive play, we look for the TIGERS to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. AAA Sports |
02-08-16 |
Bulls +4.5 v. Hornets | Top | 91-108 |
Loss | -110 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago Bulls. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different basic factors: Revenge: Charlotte has won two of three over Chicago, most recently a 102-96 victory on December 5th. Derek Rose: Chicago star Jimmy Butler won’t be playing in this one, but D-Rose has picked up the slack by averaging 19.5 points and 9.5 assists the last two games. ATS statistics: This is in fact a spot in which the Bulls have dominated in for bettors, going 12-8 ATS last 20 after allowing 105 points or more, while Charlotte has struggled in this spot by going just 14-17 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest and just 6-10 ATS after scoring 105 points or more. The bottom line: With a five game road trip which starts on Wednesday, we think the home side comes into this one a bit complacent and despite being down a key player, we ultimately feel that the level of desperation in which the BULLS play with today will prove to be the difference. Play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports |
02-07-16 |
Panthers v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 10-24 |
Win | 100 | 320 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Denver Broncos.
Sometimes keeping it simple is the best way to handicap a game and that's the approach we're taking in Super Bowl 50. This top rated 10* GAME OF THE MONTH selection is based on what we feel to be a couple of key factors.
Experience: Cam Newton has experience playing Football, he's been doing it his entire life at the highest level possible. From high school, to College and now as one of the elite in the NFL, there's very little at this point that the Panthers' pivot hasn't experienced in his "Football" career. However, there is one thing that he has yet to experience and that's the weight of expectations in playing in the Super Bowl. Newton has risen to every occasion to this point, but nothing can prepare him for the media blitz the next two weeks and all of the hype surrounding this game. Peyton Manning on the other hand has been here and done that, one Super Bowl victory, one Super Bowl loss. As gifted as Newton is physically, we're giving Manning the big mental edge in this matchup. This alone would be reason enough for us to make this selection, but there is one other key factor working in our favor as well. ADVANTAGE Manning.
Defense: They say defense wins championships. Both teams have excellent defenses, but we think the Broncos' unit is something special and believe it will ultimately prove to be the difference maker in Super Bowl 50. After jumping out to a 31-0 lead over the Seahawks in the divisional round, Carolina had to hold on for dear life in the second to pull off the 31-24 victory. Carolina of course looked a lot better against Carson Palmer and the Cards in the conference championship, but we think it'll once again have its hands full with Manning and company. Manning doesn't scramble like Russell Wilson, but they are both very much alike when moving the ball in no the huddle, with plenty of short crossing passes, combined with a steady dose of hard running. While they were able to get to Palmer, who is always looking to air it out down-field at almost every opportunity, the Panthers' defense has looked pretty ordinary vs. offensive units like the Seahawks and Broncos. Denver on the other hand has a defensive unit which can adapt to any style, the Broncos just shut down Tom Brady and the high flying Patriots and suffice it to say, we're expecting a similar type of smothering performance in this one as well. ADVANTAGE Broncos.
The bottom line: And that's it. Manning having more experience in these situations, combined with what we feel to be a better overall defensive unit are the reasons why we're taking the BRONCOS to win Super Bowl 50.
AAA Sports |
02-06-16 |
Florida State v. Wake Forest +4 | Top | 91-71 |
Loss | -110 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Wake Forest. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Desperation breeds motivation: The Demon Deacons will desperately be trying to snap a season-long seven-game losing streak before hitting the road for three-straight away from friendly confines. Suffice it to say, we expect a big time effort from the home side this afternoon. Note though that the Deac’s strength of schedule is ranked No. 1 nationally in the Sagarin Ratings and the ESPN BPI, having already played nine ranked opponents. Classic look ahead spot: FSU next plays Syracuse next week, a team which it lost to twice last year. Revenge factor: Wake plays with revenge after falling 82-76 to the Seminoles on January 28th, 2015. Home court advantage: The Deacons are 14-6 SU their last 20 vs. FSU in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: The situation and the trends do indeed point to WAKE FOREST as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
02-05-16 |
Bucks +7.5 v. Jazz | Top | 81-84 |
Win | 100 | 31 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Milwaukee Bucks. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Letdown/look-ahead spot: We feel this sets up as a classic spot bet against the Jazz, they’ve won four straight, but had to hold on for dear life in an 85-81 win over Denver on Wednesday, unable to cover the 8-point spread. And with a three game road trip starting tomorrow night in Phoenix, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine the home side looking past their Eastern Conference opponent this evening. Revenge: The Bucks have dropped 13 straight in Utah. Desperation breeds motivation: While the Jazz are flying high, the Bucks come in having lost four straight and five in a row on the road. There’s no question in our minds who will be the more motivated side in this one. ATS statistics: Note that Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS vs. Northwest division opponents this season and 5-1 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses, while Utah is only 1-3 ATS after scoring 85 points or less and just 2-4 ATS after playing three consecutive home games. The bottom line: While we wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the BUCKS to risk life and limb to secure a victory today and expect them to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AAA Sports |
02-05-16 |
Dartmouth v. Pennsylvania -2 | Top | 64-71 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Pennsylvania. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Desperation breeds motivation: The Quakers are looking to end a four-game slide and to take advantage of a Big Green team which had won three in a row before back to back setbacks at the hands of Columbia and Cornell. Moving in the right direction: Pennsylvania will desperately be trying to secure its first conference win, but it’s come very close, surrounding a blowout loss to Yale, the Quakers would drop an OT game vs. Princeton on January 9th, while also falling at Brown 89-83 last weekend: “Against Brown, I think we did a lot of good things for long stretches,” head coach Steve Donahue assessed. “We played solid offense. The guys are getting better, there’s good growth, they’re all in, they keep competing. Now we just gotta put it together for 40 minutes,. One thing that really hurt us was [our shooting] at the foul line.” ATS statistics: Note that Darmouth is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road and only 6-17-1 ATS in its last 24 games following a SU loss, while Pennsylvania is 5-2 ATS its last seven in front of the home town crowd and 6-2 ATS in its last eight at home vs. teams with losing road records. The bottom line: Despite injuries, the QUAKERS are definitely knocking on the door for their first conference victory, note that Big Green has won just four games at the Palestra since 1959. AAA Sports |
02-03-16 |
Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech -6 | Top | 61-63 |
Loss | -110 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Texas Tech. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Motivation levels: We’ll argue that Texas Tech will be the much more motivated team tonight, while the Red Raiders are still 12-8 and 8th overall in the Big 12, they come into this one having lost three straight. Oklahoma State on the other hand is 11-10 and 9th in the conference, but has won two of its last four, most recently a very satisfying 74-63 win over Auburn. ATS statistics: The Red Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last ten at home and 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs. a team with a losing road record, while the Cowboys are just 3-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more and only 4-8 ATS vs. teams with winning records. The bottom line: The situation and the trends both suggest that TEXAS TECH is indeed the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
02-03-16 |
Heat v. Mavs -4 | Top | 93-90 |
Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Dallas Mavericks. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge factor: Dallas suffered a 106-82 setback to the Heat on New Years Day, a loss which still represents the team’s second lowest point total of the season. The Mavericks have in fact lost eight of the last nine in the series. Letdown spot: It’s hard to gain back momentum and after having their four-game win streak halted in a 115-102 loss at Houston just last night, suffice it to say we think the Heat come in with “heavy legs” this evening. ATS statistics: Note that Miami is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine when playing on back-to-back days and just 2-6 ATS after allowing 105 points or more, while Dallas is 14-7 ATS after allowing 105 points or more and 12-10 ATS this season in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent. The bottom line: Both teams have injury concerns, so that area is a “wash,” DALLAS though clearly has the situational, motivational and trend based factors all working in its favor today. AAA Sports |
02-03-16 |
Magic +13.5 v. Thunder | Top | 114-117 |
Win | 100 | 31 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Orlando Magic. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Classic letdown/look-ahead spot: This is as big as it gets with this angle, the Thunder have won nine of their last ten, including four straight and after playing the lowly Eastern Conference Magic tonight, have a battle at defending champion Golden State on Saturday. Suffice it to say, it’s obviously not too hard to imagine OKC looking past Orlando this evening. Revenge: The Magic fell 139-136 in double OT at home to the Thunder on November 30th. Orlando has also lost six straight in OKC. Road warriors: The Magic are 10-7 SU against the Western conference with six of those setbacks decided by six points or less, including three in the extra frame. ATS statistics: Note that Orlando is 12-4 ATS in non-conference game this year, while OKC is just 8-13 ATS in non-conference contests and only 7-18 ATS vs. teams with losing records. The bottom line: We won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, but with the situational and trend based factors working in their favor, we look for the MAGIC to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. AAA Sports |
02-03-16 |
Notre Dame v. Miami (Fla) -7 | Top | 70-79 |
Win | 100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Miami Florida. We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a few different factors: Revenge factor: ND took both games vs. Miami last year. Home court advantage: The Hurricanes have won eight straight at home. It’s averaged a 12.9 points margin in its last four ACC home games. Experience advantage: Notre Dame had an experience edge last year, but not so this season as Miami boasts a starting lineup of seniors. Classic lookahead spot: It’s hard not to imagine the Fighting Irish not getting caught looking ahead to their game at home vs. UNC on Saturday. ATS statistics: Note that Notre Dame is just 1-2 ATS as an underdog this year, while Miami is 11-7 ATS as the favorite and 7-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd. The bottom line: The situational, motivational and trend based factors do all indeed point to MIAMI as the savvy move in this contest. AAA Sports |
02-01-16 |
North Carolina v. Louisville -2 | Top | 65-71 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Louisville.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivation: When it comes to good teams, we have always felt that losing breeds motivation, while winning will more often than not lead to complacency. The Tar Heels come to town riding a 12-game winning streak. The Cardinals have lost back-to-back games for the first time since early last season. So not only will Louisville be looking to snap out of its recent funk, but it will also be eager to avenge a 70-60 setback to the Tar Heels back on March 12th, 2015.
ATS statistics: Note that UNC is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven vs. teams with a winning SU record and 1-4 ATS in their last five following an ATS victory, while Louisville is 11-7 ATS in its last 18 after three or more straight ATS setbacks.
The bottom line: After a listless effort in their setback to Virginia at home, we expect the CARDINALS to take full advantage of the many factors working in their favor and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
AAA Sports |
01-30-16 |
Kings +3 v. Grizzlies | Top | 117-121 |
Loss | -105 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE ASSASSIN on the Sacramento Kings.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivated and revenge minded: Sacramento is likely to be without head coach George Karl for this one, but there won't be any lack of motivation as the visitors desperately try to avoid a fourth straight loss, while also looking to snap a ten-game losing streak in Memphis.
ATS statistics: Note that Sacramento has dominated in this spot for bettors all season long, going 12-10 ATS on the road, 4-2 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses and 14-7 ATS vs. teams with winning records. And note, despite their recent surge the Grizzlies have been brutal in this position, going just 7-11 ATS following a non-conference game, only 3-6 ATS following a victory by ten points or more and a poor 13-16 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest.
The bottom line: From a situational and trend based stand point, all signs do indeed point to the KINGS as the savvy move in this one.
AAA Sport |
01-30-16 |
Kentucky v. Kansas -6 | Top | 84-90 |
Push | 0 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Kansas.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivation levels: Both teams are 16-4, but Kentucky has won five of its last six, while Kansas has lost two of three. With their backs seemingly against the wall and after going 0-3 SU/ATS vs. the Wildcats in the last three in the series, we're giving a huge nod to the Jayhawks in the motivation department tonight.
ATS statistics: Note that Kentucky is 8-4 ATS in non-conference games this season and 2-3 ATS off a win vs. a league rival, while Kansas is 7-2 ATS in all non-conference games this year and 9-7 ATS when playing the role of favorite.
The bottom line: Kansas will be playing with desperation and with the "revenge" factor and combined with these extremely strong ATS trends, all signs do indeed point to the JAYHAWKS as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports |
01-30-16 |
Washington v. USC -7 | Top | 88-98 |
Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* Pac-12 ASSASSIN on USC.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Home court advantage: After an 81-71 win over Washington State on Thursday, USC has won its first 12 in front of the home town crowd.
Revenge factor: These teams played on January 3rd and Washington would leave that one with an 87-85 victory.
ATS statistics: Note that Washington is 11-17 ATS in its last 28 after allowing 80 points or more, while USC is 9-3 ATS at home this season.
The bottom line: The situation and the trends do indeed point to USC as the savvy move in this contest.
AAA Sports |
01-30-16 |
Fordham +2.5 v. Massachusetts | Top | 78-72 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Fordham.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Revenge: The Minutemen swept the series last year, winning by eight in Amherst.
Best Rams team in a decade?" Fordham is 11-8 SU (UMass is 8-11), already posting its most overall wins in eight years. In fact the Rams scoring average of 72.4 PPG is the school's best in over 15 seasons.
Downward spiral: It's true that Fordham has lost two straight, but the Minutemen have dropped six in a row, most recently a 78-70 setback at St. Joe's on Wednesday. The good news for UMass though was it was the closest setback during its slide and the fewest points allowed as well. Note that only one Minuteman even reached double figures in scoring.
ATS statistics: Note that Fordham is not surprisingly, a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three vs. poor defensive teams which allow 77-plus points per contest, while UMass is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. teams with winning records.
The bottom line: While we obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the under the radar RAMS to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch.
AAA Sports |
01-29-16 |
Pennsylvania +14 v. Yale | Top | 58-81 |
Loss | -110 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Pennsylvania.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a couple of different factors:
Classic look-ahead spot: It's almost impossible to imagine the Bulldogs not getting caught "looking-ahead" to their matchup vs. Princeton tomorrow night.
Revenge factor: To say this is a "revenge" game would be a bit of an understatement, the Quakers have lost seven of the last ten in the series, including six straight.
The bottom line: This one does indeed set up as a letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side and it's because of this fact that we'll pull the trigger on this top rated 10* selection; play on PENNSYLVANIA.
AAA Sports |
01-29-16 |
Princeton v. Brown +8 | Top | 83-59 |
Loss | -110 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Brown.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivation levels: There's no question that this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the visitors, the Tigers have won four straight and seven of the last eight in this series. Not only will the Bears be looking to avenge those setbacks, they'll also be desperate to break a two-game slide, while also notching their first league victory.
Even Steven: These teams' offenses are very similar, Princeton averages 76.8 PPG, while Brown averages 73.8. They're also not that far apart defensively, as the Tigers give up 69.2, the Bears 76.6.
Classic look ahead spot: It's almost impossible not to imagine the visitors not looking ahead to their game vs. Yale tomorrow.
The bottom line: The situation and motivational factors are definitely working in favor of BROWN in our professional opinion.
AAA Sports |
01-27-16 |
Hornets v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 73-102 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* REVENGE ASSASSIN on the Utah Jazz.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
If history is any precedence: Then the home side has to be loving it chances today, Charlotte has lost eight straight in Salt Lake City, while averaging 84.0 points and 40.3 percent shooting.
Motivation: Charlotte has won three straight, while Utah has lost five of seven. We definitely feel this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the contented Hornets, while the Jazz will be risking life and limb as they look to break the slide. And note that home side also plays with revenge after falling 124-119 in double OT to Charlotte just last week.
ATS statistics: Note that Charlotte is just 6-13 ATS after a non-conference game and just 6-8 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, while Utah is 6-0 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite and 11-6 ATS this season in revenging a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: The situations and trends do all indeed point to the JAZZ as the sharp wager in this one.
AAA Sports |
01-27-16 |
DePaul v. Butler -13.5 | Top | 53-67 |
Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* MID-MAJOR MAULING on Butler.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Desperation breeds motivation: The home side we figure will be especially pumped to break a recent string of sluggish play, after being ranked as high as 24th in the nation as little as two weeks ago, the Bulldogs' 2-5 start in conference play has the team hungry to atone tonight.
Slumping visitors: The Blue Demons are struggling, they've lost six of their last seven, all in conference play. And now the team comes to Butler in a "letdown" situation as well after a hugely satisfying 57-56 win over Marquette in Milwaukee.
ATS statistics: Note that DePaul is already just 1-2 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent and only 1-2 ATS after scoring 60 points or less, while Butler is 5-2 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season and 5-3 ATS as a home fav of 12.5 points or more.
The bottom line: The BULLDOGS have not been playing their best basketball of late, but that trend of futility ends today as they jump out to an early lead and never look back.
AAA Sports |
01-25-16 |
Kansas +1 v. Iowa State | Top | 72-85 |
Loss | -105 | 30 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Kansas.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivation: Clearly both teams will be amped for this one, but we think that Kansas has more motivational factors working in its favor. A victory will move the Jayhawks into sole possession of the Big 12 lead, while the team will also be looking to avoid a third straight road loss
Revenge: Since taking 18 of 19 in the series, Kansas has lost three of the last four, including an 86-81 setback in its last trip to Ames on January 17th, 2015. And then Iowa State would rally from 17 down to secure its second straight Big 12 tournament title with a 70-66 victory over the Jayhawks on March 14th.
ATS statistics: Note that Kansas is already 2-1 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest and 7-5 ATS vs. teams with winning records, while Iowa State is just 3-4 ATS this season following a conference game.
The bottom line: We feel there are enough situational and strong trend based factors working in favor of the visitors to pull the trigger on this one; play on KANSAS.
AAA Sports |
01-25-16 |
Detroit +7 v. Green Bay | Top | 108-115 |
Push | 0 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* Horizon League GAME OF THE YEAR on Detroit.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't subscribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Desperation breeds motivation: Detroit comes into this one on a four-game losing streak after falling 83-80 at UW Milwaukee on Saturday. It's a bit of a surprise, as the Titans haven't lost four straight in two seasons, and note that the team actually ranks third in the league in scoring (83.7) and second in field-goal percentage (46.1 percent).
Sloppy defensive play from the Phoenix: Green Bay has alternated wins and losses and comes in off a 111-95 setback to Oakland, a season high in points allowed. It was also the fourth time this year that the Phoenix have allowed their opposition to reach the century mark. Green Bay is second in league scoring at 84.8, but is seventh defensively in giving up 79.9.
The revenge factor: The Titans have lost five straight in the series, including three straight at Green Bay.
ATS statistics: Note that Detroit is 5-3 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more and 2-1 ATS off a loss vs. a conference rival, while Green Bay is just 3-4 ATS vs. the conference and only 4-6 ATS after scoring 80 points or more.
The bottom line: While we wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for DETROIT to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.
AAA Sports |
01-24-16 |
Patriots -3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 18-20 |
Loss | -100 | 163 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New England Patriots.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Quarterbacks: We love both of these veteran and proven pivots, but one is playing at the very top of his game, while the other can barely stand on his own two feet. Tom Brady threw 36 TD's to just seven INT's this season behind an offensive unit which was patched together for most of the year. That Patriots unit though is now almost back to 100% health. Peyton Manning had a tough season and missed a large chunk of it due to an injury; Manning looked particularly feeble vs. a wounded Steelers team in the divisional round, throwing for just 222 yards.
Offense vs. defense: Manning's shortcomings in the pocket were largely masked by the league's top defensive units and while the team obviously benefits from playing in front of the home town crowd, this strength is neutralized by the visitors truly dynamic offense, led by Brady, TE Rob Gronkowski and WT Julian Edelman.
Revenge: The Pats lost to the Broncos in Week 12, despite Brady tossing three TD's and with Edelman watching from the sideline with injury.
The bottom line: Brady and the Patriots are just too experienced to be overwhelmed by this situation. In the loss earlier in the season, the Broncos were able to run the ball, but we look for the visiting side to come out much more prepared today and when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, we do indeed look for NEW ENGLAND to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the ATS cover.
AAA Sports |
01-22-16 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois | Top | 49-58 |
Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* MAC GAME OF THE WEEK on Toledo.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Momentum: The visitors come in with a ton of it after winning six of their last nine. On the season the Rockets are averaging 79.5 PPG on 47.1 percent shootings, while giving up an average of 72.5 on 43.5 percent. Also note that Toledo has won ten of its last 16 on the road SU.
Point discrepancy: The Huskies are 15-3 this year, but average just 72.4 points on 42.9 percent shooting, while allowing an average of 67.7 on 40.9 percent shooting. As good as Northern Illinois has been this season, we have a hard time seeing the Huskies matching pace with this high-flying Rockets offense right now.
ATS statistics: Note that Toledo is 5-3 ATS on the road this year and 3-1 ATS following a conference game, while NIU is only 1-2 ATS this season off a win vs. a conference rival.
The bottom line: While we wouldn't be shocked by an outright victory obviously, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as all signs point this one coming down to the wire for TOLEDO.
AAA Sports |
01-21-16 |
Kentucky -1 v. Arkansas | Top | 80-66 |
Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Kentucky.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivation: John Calipari's squad was ranked No. 1 in the nation on November 23rd, but has since fallen to No. 23 in the rankings, most recently losing 75-70 at Auburn on Saturday.
Revenge: The last time Kentucky visited Fayetteville in 2014, Arkansas won 87-85 in OT on a buzzer-beating dunk. Arkansas has taken three straight in the series in front of the home town crowd.
Letdown spot: After winning three straight, the Razorbacks fell 76-74 at LSU on Saturday. Gaining that momentum back after that heart-breaking setback, especially against this focused and hungry/determined Wildcats team, is easier said than done.
ATS statistics: Note that Kentucky is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a loss vs. a conference rival and 5-3 ATS this season vs. teams with winning records, while Arkansas is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 off a loss vs. a conference rival.
The bottom line: In our professional opinion, this one sets up perfectly for KENTUCKY.
AAA Sports |
01-18-16 |
Warriors v. Cavs -1 | Top | 132-98 |
Loss | -110 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Cleveland Cavaliers.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Revenge: This is an obvious one and is what this pick is almost 100% based upon. The last time the Warriors were in Cleveland, they'd leave the city with the Larry O'Brien Trophy. Golden State also beat the Cavs at at home on Christmas day.
Coming back down to Earth: After starting the season 24-0, the Warriors have lost two of their last three.
Momentum: The Cavs come in hot, their only loss in the last three weeks was Thursday's 99-95 loss at San Antonio, Cleveland had won eight straight prior to that and would follow up the setback with a commanding 91-77 victory at Houston to wrap up a 5-1 road trip.
Home court advantage: Cleveland has to be liking its chances today, it plays five of its next six at Quicken Loans Arena, where it's won six straight and is 15-1 overall.
ATS statistics: Note that Golden State is just 5-9 ATS in non-conference games this year, while Cleveland is 4-1 ATS after playing three consecutive road games and 11-4 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
The bottom line: This is personal. This is their home turf. We expect an all out war, but look for the CAVALIERS to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.
AAA Sports |
01-18-16 |
Syracuse v. Duke -11.5 | Top | 64-62 |
Loss | -110 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on Duke.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivated home side: The Blue Devils may be 14-4 this season, but they've lost their last two games including a setback at home to Notre Dame last time out. Still, Duke has to be feeling extremely confident it can bounce back today, it's averaging 86.9 points off 48.3 percent shooting, while allowing 70.7 PPG off 43.3 percent shooting.
Classic letdown spot: The Orange are 12-7, but come in off back-to-back blowout wins. Note that Syracuse averages 71.1 PPG, while allowing 64.4.
ATS statistics: Duke is 7-3 its last ten vs. the ACC, 4-1-1 ATS at home vs. a team with a losing road record, while Syracuse is just 7-23-2 ATS vs. the ACC and 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road.
The bottom line: It's a perfect storm of factors for the BLUE DEVILS.
AAA Sports |
01-17-16 |
Steelers v. Broncos -6 | Top | 16-23 |
Win | 100 | 174 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Denver Broncos.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Rested and healthy: No need to overanalyze this one, while the health of starting QB Peyton Manning may be a bit in question, there's no doubt that both he and his team come into this one well rested and prepared after the crucial bye-week in the Wildcard round. Pittsburgh barely made it past the Bengals last week and the win cost them No. 1 receiver Antonio Brown because of a concussion. QB Ben Roethlisberger also sustained a shoulder injury.
Revenge factor: Pittsburgh just beat the Broncos 34-27 less than a month ago, there's no question that the home side will be looking to avenge that setback.
Home field advantage and superior defense: The Broncos finished amongst the league leaders in most statistical defensive categories and they'll have a major advantage of playing at home in these blustery conditions.
ATS statistics: Note that Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS this year already after two or more consecutive victories and 3-5 ATS in its last eight off a win over a division rival, while Denver is 4-2 ATS in its last six after two weeks or more of rest.
The bottom line: The stage is set for Manning to return to form and take advantage of this banged up Steelers team, we're expecting perhaps the biggest lop-sided rout of the entire postseason to date as we simply can't see the wounded visitors matching pace down the stretch. Play on the BRONCOS.
AAA Sports |
01-15-16 |
Heat -3 v. Nuggets | Top | 98-95 |
Push | 0 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Miami Heat.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Classic "letdown" spot for the Nuggets: No need to overanalyze this play in our opinion, overachieving Denver has won three of its last four, including a 112-110 victory over Golden State on Wednesday.
Desperation factor for Miami: The Heat have been playing sloppily of late, they'd open their six-game road trip with a win in Phoenix, but have since lost three-straight. But desperation breeds motivation and the ATS stats are backing us up today as well.
ATS statistics: Note that Miami is 9-6 ATS in non-conference games this year and 5-3 ATS after a loss by ten points or more, while Denver is 3-7 ATS this season off an upset win as an underdog and 5-10 ATS after scoring 105 points or more.
The bottom line: Both teams are dealing with injuries, but one is coming off an epic win, while the other will be playing with desperation. Lay the short points with confidence on the hungry, hungry HEAT.
AAA Sports |
01-15-16 |
George Washington v. Dayton -5 | Top | 70-77 |
Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Dayton.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Momentum carries over: Dayton recovered from a rare setback at La Salle to beat Davidson 80-74 on Tuesday, but it was the way the team closed the second half which leads us to believe the Flyers will be in for another big performance today. The Wildcats were a tough opponent, but a 19-1 run in the second half pushed Dayton to the six-point victory.
Charles Cooke expected to play: Cooke is the leading scorer on the Flyers, the team prevailed without him in the line-up vs. Davidson, as Scoochie Smith filled the void with 18 points. Cooke was hopeful to return to that game and is expected to be in this one (note, whether Cooke plays or not, we still love this selection as we feel that home court advantage can not be overlooked here).
Revenge factor: The last time these team's met, George Washington pulled off the 65-64 OT victory on February 6th, 2015.
ATS statistics: Note that the Colonials are a poor 2-3 ATS on the road already this year and just 2-3 ATS after scoring 80 points or more, while the Flyers are 11-7 ATS their last 18 after scoring 80 points or more and 20-17 ATS in their last 37 in front of the home town crowd.
The bottom line: As listed above, a bunch of favorable factors collide for DAYTON in this one.
AAA Sports |
01-14-16 |
California v. Stanford +2.5 | Top | 71-77 |
Win | 100 | 32 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Stanford.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Evenly matched, so home court advantage becomes a factor: These two teams are very evenly matched, the Cardinal average 69.9 points and give up 67.7, while The Bears average 75.8 and give up 65.3. We'll call the discrepancy in numbers a "wash" here because of the home court advantage.
ATS statistics: This play is however mainly based on some very strong ATS stats, as note that California is just 7-8 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite and a horrible 5-15 ATS in its last 20 following a loss vs. a conference rival, while Stanford is already 2-0 ATS this season after scoring 60 points or less and is 23-17 ATS in its last 41 in front of the home town crowd.
The bottom line: The oddsmakers agree that these teams are evenly matched, but all of the strong ATS stats do indeed point to the points as the savvy move in this contest, grab as many as you can with the STANFORD CARDINAL.
AAA Sports |
01-13-16 |
Oklahoma v. Oklahoma State +8.5 | Top | 74-72 |
Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OKLAHOMA STATE.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Classic look ahead spot: Oklahoma is 13-1, it bounced back off its first loss of the year by beating Kansas State last time out. Oklahoma State is 9-6, the Cowboys have lost their last two games. It's definitely not too hard to imagine the Sooners getting caught "looking ahead" to their game vs. West Virginia on Saturday, the Mountaineers currently lead the Big 12 standings at 15-1.
Revenge: The last time these teams met, Oklahoma pulled away in the second half of a 64-49 win and cover on March 12th, 2015.
ATS statistics: Note that Oklahoma is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after scoring 80 points or more and only 1-2 ATS vs. the conference, while OKS is 19-12 ATS in its last 31 in front of the home town crowd.
The bottom line: Two strong situational factors are backed by a bunch of strong ATS trends, in our opinion this is a few too many points to be giving up in this spot, grab as many as you can with OKLAHOMA STATE.
AAA Sports |
01-13-16 |
Hawks v. Hornets +2.5 | Top | 84-107 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on the Charlotte Hornets.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Revenge factor: Charlotte has dropped both meetings to Atlanta already this year (note that neither was a blowout, a 97-94 on October 30th and 94-92 two days later).
Letdown spot: This is a classic letdown spot for the visitors after they ended Chicago's six-game win streak with a 120-105 victory on Saturday.
Desperation leads to motivation: Despite being down big man Al Jefferson, the Hornets will be risking life and limb today in trying to snap a seven-game slide: "It's the defense, obviously," coach Steve Clifford said. "We've got to get back to, in the games 12 through 23, we were the second-best defensive team in the league against a good schedule so we're capable of much better."
ATS statistics: Note that Atlanta has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors, just 4-5 ATS after a victory by ten points or more, only 6-9 ATS after scoring 105 points or more and 7-9 ATS vs. teams with losing records. And not that this is a position in which Charlotte has performed extremely well in, going 3-1 ATS this season as a home dog of three points or less and 4-2 ATS when playing with two days of rest.
The bottom line: With a game tomorrow night in Milwaukee, we think the Hawks come in a bit distracted, leaving the door open for CHARLOTTE to finally break its slide.
AAA Sports |
01-11-16 |
Spurs v. Nets +12.5 | Top | 106-79 |
Loss | -110 | 30 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Brooklyn Nets.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
New coach for Brooklyn: When a team fires a head coach in the middle of a season to shake things up, it can have one of two effects: either the team responds and dominates, or it continues to slide as if nothing happened. While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do think the firing of Lionel Hollins and the assigning of GM Billy King will light enough of a fire under the home side to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe.
ATS statistics: And the stats back up our line of reasoning as well as note that San Antonio has in fact struggled in this spot over the last few seasons, going just 13-18 ATS in its last 31 when playing with two days of rest, while Brooklyn has excelled in this spot for bettors already this year, going 9-4 ATS in all non-conference games, 13-9 ATS vs. teams with winning records, 16-12 ATS vs. good offensive clubs which average 99-plus points per contest, interestingly it's also 4-1 ATS vs. the Southwest division (the entire Southwest just can't help itself in "looking past" the lowly Nets it would seem), and 9-7 ATS in revenging a loss vs. an opponent.
Look ahead spot: It's not like the Spurs will have it marked down on their calendar, but this does indeed set up as a bit of a look ahead spot for the visitors with a game in Detroit tomorrow night.
The bottom line: A new coach, a new direction. Strong ATS stats backed by an equally as important "spot" circumstance. This is a lot of points, too many in our opinion, grab as many as you can with the NETS.
AAA Sports |
01-09-16 |
Warriors v. Kings +7.5 | Top | 128-116 |
Loss | -110 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the LA Kings.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS statistics:
Note that St. Louis is just 2-7 (-6.7 units) this year in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent and only 3-4 (-2.4 units) when playing on back-to-back days.
And note that LA is 9-2 (+6.4 units) vs. teams with winning records this season.
Play on the KINGS.
AAA Sports |
01-09-16 |
Steelers v. Bengals +2.5 | Top | 18-16 |
Win | 100 | 127 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bengals.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
AJ McCarron: Obviously the QB has a big opportunity to finally break the Bengals playoff curse and since Andy Dalton went down, he has in fact been pretty sharp, completing 76 of 115 passes for 832 yards with six TD's, two INT's and a 97.4 passer rating.
DeAngelo Williams: The RB is out for the Steelers, which is massive to an offense which depends so strongly on the run to open up the passing game. The Bengals are tough against the pass AND the run, this turns the Steelers offense extremely one dimensional and thus, predictable. Note that Williams had a major impact vs. the Bengals this year, rushing for 201 total yards and two scores in the two games the team's split.
ATS statistics: Note that Pittsburgh is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight off a win vs. a division rival, while Cincinnati is a perfect 4-0 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog.
The bottom line: We can't understate how important we feel that home field advantage will be today and while we obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on the BENGALS.
AAA Sports |
01-09-16 |
Arizona State +5.5 v. UCLA | Top | 74-81 |
Loss | -110 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Arizona State.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Revenge factor: Despite ASU winning last season's meeting 68-66 in February, this must still be considered a "revenge" game for the Sun Devils, as UCLA holds a 64-19 all-time edge, including having won seven of the last nine in the series.
Desperation breeds motivation: ASU won its final four non-conference contests, but has opened league play by dropping its first two. The Sun Devils will now look to take advantage of a complacent Bruins team which opened league play 0-2, but who come in off a huge 87-84 win over seventh-ranked Arizona last time out (we had the Bruins in that one). There's no question that this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side.
ATS Statistics: Note that Arizona State is already 6-3 ATS vs. teams with winning records this year, while UCLA is 3-7 ATS in the same position and 0-4 ATS when playing with one or less days rest.
The bottom line: A bunch of great situational factors collide and while we wouldn't be shocked by the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for ARIZONA STATE to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch.
AAA Sports |
01-09-16 |
Chiefs -3 v. Texans | Top | 30-0 |
Win | 100 | 124 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Andy Reid and Alex Smith: Just like in our play on the OVER in this same contest, these two are a big reason behind our reasoning for this play as well. The Chiefs started the season 1-5 due in large part to the injury to starting RB Jamaal Charles. A stout defense and the improved play from Smith turned the campaign around. Smith has 3,486 yards, 20 TD's and 7 INT's. And note, Smith would throw for more than 300 yards and had three TD's in Week 1 vs. Houston.
ATS statistics: Note that Kansas City is 3-1 ATS this year off a win vs. a division rival and 5-3 ATS on the road, while Houston is just 2-3 ATS in its last five in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent and only 2-3 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
The bottom line: Hats off to Houston for turning its season around under such trying circumstances, but there's no question that it benefitted greatly from playing in the weak division. KC made early season adjustments and comes into the playoffs as arguably the hottest team in the league. And certainly we're giving the nod to Smith over Brian Hoyer. We look for the visitors to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night, play on the CHIEFS.
AAA Sports |
01-09-16 |
Texas A&M v. Tennessee +5.5 | Top | 92-88 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Tennessee.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Home side run and gun offense: The Vols have the firepower to match Texas A&M, the Aggies average 79.2 points, while Tennessee averages 79.6. Where they fall short is clearly on the defensive end of the floor, Texas A&M allows 64.3 points, while the Volunteers give up an average of 75. However, the home side catches a break as we feel this one sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors.
A letdown in the making: The Aggies have won five straight, but come in off a harrowing 61-60 road win over Mississippi State on Wednesday night and they're now being asked to cover another handful of points away from friendly confines against an equally as hungry and talented Tennessee team. The Vols just bounce back from a loss to Auburn in their conference opener to roll past Florida 83-69 at home on Wednesday, momentum is on their side.
ATS statistics: Note that Texas A&M is just 2-3 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records and 0-2 ATS in true road games, while Tennessee is 5-1 ATS this season as an underdog and 6-0 ATS after scoring 80 points or more.
The bottom line: While we wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the home side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire and comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; play on TENNESSEE.
AAA Sports |
01-09-16 |
DePaul +10 v. Georgetown | Top | 63-74 |
Loss | -110 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on DePaul.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Immediate revenge factor: DePaul enters the nation's capital to face Georgetown, a team it lost 70-58 to just ten days ago.
Better than record indicates: The Blue Demons will no doubt be desperate, they've lost six of their last seven and are tied for last place in the Big East with an 0-3 record. As we like to say, desperation breeds motivation. DePaul's one win in that stretch was a 21-point blowout victory over then 20th-ranked George Washington. We think that the Blue Demons are better than what their record indicates though, for the most part their conference battles have been extremely competitive, last time out they'd take No. 18 Butler down to the wire in the eventual 77-72 setback.
Up and down Georgetown: The Hoyas have been all over the map with their consistency, the opened the season 1-3, then rebounded with eight victories in their next ten (although the losses were to featherweights Monmouth and UNC-Ashville). Georgetown though does have some big wins, including over Wisconsin, Syracuse and Marquette, but comes in off a listless 79-66 setback at Creighton.
ATS statistics: Georgetown is just 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a straight-up losing record, just 1-8 ATS in its last nine home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and only 1-9 ATS in its last ten home games vs. a team with a losing record. And note that DePaul is 5-1 ATS in its last six vs. the Hoyas, while the road team is 5-1 ATS the last six in this series.
The bottom line: DePaul has clearly been playing better than what its record would indicate and with a second crack at Georgetown this season, we look for the BLUE DEMONS to give the home side everything it can handle.
AAA Sports |
01-08-16 |
Western Michigan +13 v. Akron | Top | 53-62 |
Win | 100 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG TIGER on Western Michigan.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Desperation vs. complacency: WMU is just 6-8 on the season and lost its opening MAC game against Kent State on Tuesday, a very tough 87-84 setback in OT vs. Kent State. There's no question the Broncos will be eager to take out their frustrations on an Akron team which is 12-2 overall and which has won nine straight.
The bottom line: And it's as simple as that for us, we feel this sets up as a classic "letdown" spot for the home side, a perfect opportunity for us to take advantage of, this is definitely a few too many points. Play on WESTERN MICHIGAN.
AAA Sports |
01-07-16 |
Maple Leafs v. Kings -1.5 | Top | 1-2 |
Loss | -100 | 32 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the LA Kings.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Classic "letdown" spot: There's no question that this one sets up as letdown spot for the visitors, they've won three straight, including a dominating 4-0 win at Anaheim just last night. Are the Leafs really this good? We definitely do not think so and look for the home side to come out aggressive tonight and take advantage of this extremely favorable spot.
The Kings smothering defensive play: LA has given up the third-fewest goals in the league this year and has been particularly dominant at home, having permitted just 1.93 per game while winning 12 of 15 at the Staples Center.
Jonathan Quick: The Kings' goaltender is white hot, he's given up just four goals over his last four games, most recently making 29 saves in his team's 2-1 win over Philadelphia on Saturday.
Special teams: Toronto is just 1 of 19 on the power play the last five games. LA has scored a power play goal in six straight, going 7 of 20 over that stretch.
Depth: The Kings just added Vincent Lecavalier and Luke Schenn from Philadelphia.
Strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Toronto is already 1-8 (-6.4 units) when playing on back-to-back days, while LA is already 7-3 (+1.4 units) when playing with two days of rest and 14-5 (+5.6 units) when trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: We think the visitors get punched in the mouth early and fold up the tents and go through the motions the rest of the way, all signs do indeed point to a lop-sided destruction, play on the KINGS on the PUCK-LINE.
AAA Sports |
01-07-16 |
Arizona v. UCLA +3 | Top | 84-87 |
Win | 100 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on UCLA.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivation: The Bruins clearly aren't overly thrilled with their 9-6 record, sitting 12th in the Pac-12. UCLA has lost its last two, most recently an 85-78 setback vs. Washington State. Conversely, the Wildcats are ranked 7th and enter this contest at 13-1, sitting in third in the Pac-12. It's not too hard to imagine Arizona coming in a bit complacent today, while we also expect the home side to play with desperation as it looks to score the upset.
Classic look ahead spot: It's also not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught looking ahead to their game vs. 12-3 USC on Saturday, the Trojans are currently 9-0 at home to open the year.
Strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Arizona has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors this season, going just 2-3 ATS vs. good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while UCLA has done extremely well by going 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off a loss vs. a conference rival.
The bottom line: The conditions are certainly right for an outright upset and while we obviously wouldn't be shocked if the BRUINS win this one in front of the home town crowd, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can.
AAA Sports |
01-07-16 |
Jazz v. Rockets -9 | Top | 94-103 |
Push | 0 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Houston Rockets.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
James Harden: The Rockets super star is finally starting to fire on all cylinders, he's averaging 28.1 PPG, which is second best in the league. Harden had 30 points in a 93-91 win at Utah on Monday.
Motivation: Houston has started to play much better of late, but there's no question it still has a long way to go and something to prove today as it looks to avoid a third straight home loss (following a seven-game win streak there). The Rockets play the next seven at home: "It's a great opportunity for us to take care of home-court advantage," Harden assessed last night. "We gotta focus on things we can control; our defensive togetherness, rebounding the basketball and limiting the turnovers."
If history is any precedence: Then Houston has to be loving its chances to continue its surge, it's won nine of the last 11 meetings with Utah and has swept all five at home by an average of almost 19 points.
Trending the other way: The Jazz's vaunted defense is starting to come unravelled, they're most recently coming off a 123-98 setback at San Antonio on Wednesday, the most points the team has allowed all year. They'd go on to allow the Spurs to shoot a massive 60.5 percent from the floor.
Injuries: Utah has been hit by a rash of injuries and will once again be without the services of Rudy Gobert, Dante Exum, Derrick Favors and Alec Burks.
ATS statistics: Note that Utah is just 11-12 ATS this season vs. good offensive teams which score 99-plus points per contest, while Houston is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 when playing with two days of rest.
The bottom line: The Rockets are getting healthier and have found their swagger, while the Jazz are reeling from injury and loss of identity. When taking into account all of the factors listed above, there's no question in our minds that a lop-sided destruction is in the cards tonight; play on HOUSTON.
AAA Sports |
01-07-16 |
Florida Atlantic +9 v. Marshall | Top | 67-90 |
Loss | -110 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida Atlantic.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivation: The Owls will be playing with desperation today as they look to try and break a seven-game slide. FAU is just 1-7 on the road this year, but did pick up a quality 75-69 victory at Miami (Ohio) on November 21st. Not surprisingly either, the Owls play with revenge after dropping the last contest between the team's, a 79-63 setback on February 28th, 2015.
Strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Florida Atlantic is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 9 to 12 points range and 7-5 ATS in its last 12 vs. good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest, while Marshall is a poor 2-3 ATS at home already this season, just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 vs. teams with losing records, only 7-8 ATS in its last 15 after scoring 80 points or more and a pathetic 16-22 ATS in its last 38 vs. conference opponents.
The bottom line: Desperation breeds motivation, while we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do definitely feel there are enough situational and motivational factors working in favor of the visitors today and look for them to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe; grab as many points as you can with FLORIDA ATLANTIC.
AAA Sports |
01-06-16 |
La Salle +11 v. Fordham | Top | 61-66 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on La Salle.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a couple of different factors:
Motivation: The La Salle Explorers will be desperate today, they're trying to end a six-game losing streak. La Salle won four of its first five games, and looks to take advantage of a Fordham team which has now dropped two a row.
Strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that La Salle is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest and 6-4 ATS in its last ten after three or more consecutive SU losses, while Fordham is just 13-15 ATS in its last 28 after a loss vs. a conference rival.
The bottom line: It's not too hard to imagine the Rams getting caught looking past the lowly Explorers today, while we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we feel that the intensity in which the visitors play with today will ultimately keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on LA SALLE.
AAA Sports |
01-05-16 |
Marquette +9 v. Providence | Top | 65-64 |
Win | 100 | 29 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Marquette.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Motivation: We feel this sets up as a letdown spot for the home side, the Friars have won eight straight and are ranked in the Top 10. The Golden Eagles on the other hand have lost both of their opening games to start Big East play and will be desperate for a victory today.
Strong and relevant ATS statistics: note that Marquette is 3-1 ATS in its last four as road dog in the 9 to 12 points range and 4-2 ATS in its last six after allowing 80 points or more, while Providence is just 4-5 ATS at home this year and just 10-16 ATS in its last 26 off a win vs. a conference rival.
The bottom line: The desperation level in which the Golden Eagles play with today keep this one A LOT closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe, grab as many points as you can with MARQUETTE.
AAA Sports |
01-03-16 |
Suns v. Lakers +1 | Top | 77-97 |
Win | 100 | 30 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the LA Lakers.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Scheduling: The Suns have lost eight straight and are coming off a 142-119 setback at Sacramento just last night.
- Brutal defensive play: Phoenix was allowed opponents to average 109.3 points per game shoot 48.6 percent, both league worsts in that span.
- LA trending in opposite direction: Lakers just yielded their fewest points this year, limiting Philadelphia to 36.9 percent shooting in Friday's 93-84 victory: "We're starting to play off each other, and guys are just being comfortable in their own skin," guard Lou Williams said. "These past few games we've played with a lot of confidence and played at a better pace."
- Revenge: LA plays with revenge after falling 120-101 in Phoenix in mid November.
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: note that Phoenix is just 5-10 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more, while LA is 9-7 ATS this season vs. teams with losing records.
The bottom line: We feel the home side should be a much bigger favorite, the LAKERS have improved dramatically over the last few weeks, while the Suns are spiralling down the proverbial crapper due to injury.
AAA Sports |
01-03-16 |
Vikings +3.5 v. Packers | Top | 20-13 |
Win | 100 | 129 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Adrian Peterson: the veteran back for the Vikings has been running roughshod over the league once again this year and that's not good news at all for Packers' backers today as Green Bay ranked 21st in the league in terms of rushing yards allowed per game.
- Dominant pass defense: the home side will clearly be leaning on QB Aaron Rodgers and his arm, but that strategy plays directly into the Vikings strength, who rank third in that regard for most of the year.
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: note that Minnesota is 6-1 ATS on the road and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent, while Green Bay is just 1-3 ATS this year vs. teams with winning records.
The bottom line: We think the combination of the Vikings superior defense and run will prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest and while we clearly wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on MINNESOTA.
AAA Sports |
01-03-16 |
Bucs +11 v. Panthers | Top | 10-38 |
Loss | -110 | 125 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Feeling the pressure: Carolina looked horrible in its loss to Atlanta last week, dropping the team to 14-1 and making this a must-win as far as securing home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The pressure is clearly on the home side, while Tampa Bay will have nothing to lose and would love nothing more than to play spoiler today.
- Redemption: Tampa has a shot at revenge today as well after losing an ugly game to the Panthers in Week 4.
- Motivation: Both teams are motivated, Tampa sits at 6-9 so a high playoff spot is not on the line; the Bucs will be just as hungry for a win today after dropping three straight and four of its last five.
- Doug Martin: The Bucs are 5-1 when their dynamic back has 20 or more carries and he's already proven that he can run against the Panthers, he's just one of two players to rush for more than 100 yards against Carolina all year.
- Deceptively good defense: Tampa would allow Carolina to score 37 points in Week 4, but the Bucs did manage to limit the Panthers offense to just 244 total yards, while also holding Cam Newton to his lowest passing total of the season.
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: note that Tampa is 4-3 ATS on the road this year and 3-2 ATS vs. the division, while Carolina is 0-2 ATS its last two off a loss vs. a division rival.
The bottom line: While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we do think there are enough significant motivational, situational and ATS statistics working in the visitors favor to warrant pulling the trigger on this one; play on the BUCCANEERS.
AAA Sports |
01-03-16 |
Jets v. Bills +3.5 | Top | 17-22 |
Win | 100 | 122 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Motivation: While his team won't be making the postseason and the entire campaign has to be viewed as a failure, Rex Ryan still has one last shot to cement a solid victory in front of the home town crowd, while also dealing a crippling blow to his old team at the same time. Buffalo will also be eager to stick it to former QB Ryan Fitzpatrick.
- Letdown Spot: As crazy as it sounds with a playoff berth on the line, we feel this does indeed set up as a classic letdown spot for the surging Jets, who have been lucky though to win five in a row: note that New York is just 1-2 ATS already this year off a divisional contest. Also just 1-2 ATS on the road this year.
Strong and relevant ATS stats for Buffalo: Despite some injuries on both sides of the ball, the Bills have performed extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 4-3 ATS at home this year, 3-1 vs. the division and 12-8 ATS in their last 20 vs. teams with winning records.
The bottom line: We think the wheels finally fall off the bus for New York, while Buffalo seizes the moment to play spoiler and take out its frustrations after another disappointing season. Play on the BILLS.
AAA Sports |
01-03-16 |
Saints v. Falcons -4 | Top | 20-17 |
Loss | -105 | 122 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Motivation: Who is the more motivated team today? Neither will be playing in the postseason. We think the Saints will have a letdown here after beating the Jaguars 38-27 last week though. Conversely, the Falcons will be eager to post a victory for the home town crowd and to avenge a 31-21 loss to New Orleans at the Superdome earlier in the season.
- Injury: Mark Ingram was a huge part of the Saints success in the early victory, but the power back will be sitting this one out with injury.
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: All signs point to this one being a blowout for the home side, as note that New Orleans is just 10-15 ATS in its last 25 on the road and is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. While note that Atlanta has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 10-5 ATS in its last 15 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: This one opened at -2 and has since gone closer to -5.5 (we have -4), but regardless, the situational/motivational edges clearly favor the home side in our opinion, lay the points with confidence on the FALCONS!
AAA Sports |
01-03-16 |
Steelers v. Browns +10 | Top | 28-12 |
Loss | -110 | 122 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Cleveland Browns.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Pressure: The Steelers choked last weekend in falling to lowly Baltimore and even if they win this game, they may still not make the playoffs now, as they'll need the Jets to lose in Buffalo today as well.
- Relish The Spoiler Role: While the Browns have nothing to play for today and a loss would actually help them as far as the draft is concerned, we still think Cleveland's backups come to play today; note that even though Big Ben torched the Browns through the air earlier in the year, Cleveland's run defense was stout in holding DeAngelo Williams to 54 yards on 17 carries. Cleveland's own run game has actually been impressive down the stretch as well, as Isaiah Crowell has 56 carries and 318 yards in that span (may come as a surprise to learn that Cleveland is the 19th ranked run team in the NFL and 15th in YPC).
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: All signs do indeed point to a Steelers letdown here, as note that Pittsburgh is just 1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season and just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 off a divisional contest, while Cleveland is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 in revenging a loss vs. a divisional opponent.
The bottom line: A mountain of pressure and off-field distractions for the visitors leaves the back door open just enough for the home team to sneak through; play on CLEVELAND.
AAA Sports |
01-02-16 |
Gonzaga v. San Francisco +12 | Top | 102-94 |
Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on San Francisco.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
For this particular selection, we're keeping it simple and focusing completely on strong and relevant ATS statistics:
- Note that Gonzaga is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a road fav of 12 points or more.
- Note that Gonzaga is also just 3-5 ATS vs. teams with winning records this season annoy 4-7 ATS when playing the role of favorite.
- And note that San Francisco has performed well in this spot for bettors, already 3-1 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more and interestingly, a perfect 3-0 ATS following a conference game.
The Bottom Line: In our professional opinion, this is a few too many points, so grab as many as you can on SAN FRANCISCO.
AAA Sports |
01-02-16 |
TCU v. Oregon -7 | Top | 47-41 |
Loss | -102 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Oregon.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- TCU will have to play this one without the services of QB Trevone Boykin and star WR Josh Doctson. Boykin was suspended after getting arrested last week, while Doctson has a wrist injury. Suffice it to say, we find it next to impossible for TCU to replace these two key pieces, especially Boykin, who is the backbone of the offense and the leader of the team.
- Also note though that TCU is just 1-2 ATS in its last three games played on a neutral field, while Oregon is 4-1 ATS its last five in the same position.
The Bottom Line: No need to overanalyze this one, the loss of Doctson and Boykin will prove to be too much for TCU to overcome, look for OREGON to take full advantage and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
AAA Sports |
01-02-16 |
Suns v. Kings -6.5 | Top | 119-142 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Sacramento Kings.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a couple of different factors:
- Motivation: we like the Kings to come out fired up here, after losing 122-103 at Golden State, the team would then be humbled in a 110-105 home loss to the lowly 76ers.
- DeMarcus Cousins: The Kings' big man has been playing really well of late, he had 21 points, 11 boards and three blocks before fouling out in the setback to Philadelphia. Note that Cousins averages 27.9 PPG at home as well. And finally note that Cousins has dominated the Suns throughout his career with averages of 23.2 points and 13.8 boards in his last nine vs. them.
- Revenge Factor: Cousins did not play in a 118-97 road loss to Phoenix back on November 4th.
- Poor defense: The Suns have lost seven straight and have given up an average of 108 points on 49.2 percent shooting in that span.
- ATS Stats: Note that Phoenix is just 5-9 ATS after scoring 105 points or more, while Sacramento is already 4-2 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU losses.
Play on SACRAMENTO.
AAA Sports |
01-01-16 |
Iowa v. Stanford -6 | Top | 16-45 |
Win | 100 | 78 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Stanford.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- The favorite is 6-2 SU in the last eight Rose Bowls
- Iowa is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight vs. the Pac-12
- Cardinal RB Christian McCaffrey has a FBS record 3,496 all purpose yards; note that Stanford is one of just 13 teams in the nation that averages more than nine yards per pass attempt as well.
- Stanford is 5-1 ATS in its last six bowl games.
The Bottom Line: We like the experience on Stanford and think rest leads to rust for the Hawkyes.
Play on the CARDINAL.
AAA Sports |
01-01-16 |
Notre Dame v. Ohio State -6.5 | Top | 28-44 |
Win | 100 | 74 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Ohio State.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Note that Ohio State Coach Urban Meyer is an amazing 42-3 with more then a week to prepare for an opponent and is 9-2 in bowl games, including last season's victory over Alabama and Oregon to take the first College Football Playoff title.
- Note that Ohio State junior Ezekiel Elliot has already said he's going to the NFL early, so here is his final chance to prove himself. He'll also be especially motivated after getting busted driving the other day without a licence.
- Ohio State's defense is awesome, it's second nationally in scoring defense in giving up just 14 points per game and over the last six games that's gone down to an average of just 10.7, which is lowest in the country over that span.
- Notre Dame has significant injuries, including to its starting QB Malike Zaire and RB Tarean Folston.
- The Irish are ranked No. 99 nationally in turnover margin with just 13 takeaways and 18 turnovers.
The Bottom Line: We think that Ohio State's 42-13 victory over Michigan a week after its chances of defending its national title were ended proves that the Buckeyes have not given up on this season. Notre Dame's injury issues finally catch up to it here.
Play on OHIO STATE.
|
12-31-15 |
Michigan State v. Alabama -9.5 | Top | 0-38 |
Win | 100 | 508 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Alabama.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Michigan State has struggled with teams outside of its conference for years, not only is it 0-4 ATS this year in non-conference games, but it's also just 6-8 ATS it last 14 over the last three. And note that Alabama is 3-1 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range.
The bottom line: Michigan State won a couple of games it shouldn't have this year, while Alabama has gotten progressively better with each game this season. MSU has been good agains the run, but now faces the nation's No. 1 back in Derrick Henry. We think the Spartans "luck" runs out in this one and that the "better" team pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Play on ALABAMA.
AAA Sports |
12-31-15 |
Oklahoma -3.5 v. Clemson | Top | 17-37 |
Loss | -110 | 504 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER Oklahoma.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics: Note that Oklahoma is 5-3 ATS in its last eight after playing with two or more weeks of rest and a perfect 3-0 ATS this season as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Clemson is already 0-1 ATS this year when playing with two weeks or more of rest and just 9-14 ATS in its last 23 after two or more consecutive SU wins.
And one injury to note: Clemson of course will be without the services of WR Mike Williams in this one.
The bottom line: We think Oklahoma's offense will be just too much for Clemson's defense to handle in the end. Play on OKLAHOMA.
AAA Sports |
12-30-15 |
Wisconsin v. USC -3.5 | Top | 23-21 |
Loss | -100 | 37 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on USC.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics: note that Wisconsin is just 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral field games, while USC is 8-1 ATS in its last nine following a loss vs. a conference rival and 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing with two weeks or more of rest. Play on SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AAA Sports |
12-30-15 |
Memphis v. Auburn -3 | Top | 10-31 |
Win | 100 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Auburn.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on strong and relevant ATS statistics, as well as some late line movement: Auburn opened as a -2.5 point favorite and has been steadily climbing, we got in at -3 and as of writing, the line has now moved to -4.5; regardless, we think the value is definitely still on the Tigers, and note that they have in fact performed well in this spot for bettors, going 4-2 ATS in their last six when playing with two weeks or more of rest, while Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four off a win vs. a conference rival. Lay the short points on AUBURN.
AAA Sports |
12-29-15 |
St. Louis +14 v. Kansas State | Top | 47-75 |
Loss | -110 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Saint Louis.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a scheduling factor and strong and relevant ATS statistics: it's not too hard to imagine the 9-2 Wildcats looking past the lowly Billikens today to their first conference game of the year vs. 10-1 WVU on January 2nd. And note that Saint Louis is 6-4 ATS in its last ten after three or more consecutive losses, while K-State is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. Play on SAINT LOUIS.
AAA Sports |
12-28-15 |
IUPU-Indianapolis +23 v. Butler | Top | 54-92 |
Loss | -110 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on IUPUI.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. This particular play is based on a scheduling factor and strong and relevant ATS stats: it's not too hard to imagine Butler looking past lowly IUPUI today to its first Big East matchup of the year vs. 12-1 Providence on New Years Eve. And note that IUPUI is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a road dog in the 18.5 to 24 points range, while Butler is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 after scoring 80 points or more. Play on IUPUI.
AAA Sports |
12-27-15 |
Texas Southern +17 v. Syracuse | Top | 67-80 |
Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Texas Southern.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation and scheduling. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they without question help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. And that's the case with this play, which is based on strong and relevant ATS stats and a big scheduling factor: note that after this game, Syracuse finally gets into its conference schedule and first out of the gates is a date at 6-1 Pittsburgh on Wednesday, before a game at Miami on January 2nd; suffice it to say, it's not too hard imagining the Orange "looking past" the lowly Tigers today. And note that Texas Southern has performed extremely well for bettors in this spot, going 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog of 12.5 points or more and 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 80 points or more in its previous contest, while Syracuse has in fact struggled in this position, going 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 80 points or more and just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. Play on TEXAS SOUTHERN.
AAA Sports |
12-27-15 |
Texans v. Titans +5 | Top | 34-6 |
Loss | -110 | 48 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Tennessee Titans.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation and scheduling. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they without question help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. And that's the case with this play, which is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS stats: note that Houston is just 3-4 ATS on the road this season and only 2-3 ATS in its last five off a win vs. a division rival, while Tennessee is 3-2 ATS this season as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. While we wouldn't be shocked by the outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with the TITANS.
AAA Sports |
12-26-15 |
Tulsa v. Virginia Tech -13.5 | Top | 52-55 |
Loss | -115 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Virginia Tech.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profit over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation and scheduling. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they without question help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. And that's the case with this play, which is based entirely on strong and relevant ATS stats: note that Tulsa is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games and just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog, while Virginia Tech is 6-4 ATS last ten as a favorite and 3-2 ATS last five non-conference contests. Play on VIRGINIA TECH.
AAA Sports |
12-24-15 |
Chargers +5.5 v. Raiders | Top | 20-23 |
Win | 100 | 80 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the San Diego Chargers.
Both of these teams are poor. The Chargers are 4-10, while the Raiders are 6-8. Each will miss the postseason. This is a revenge game for the Chargers though, who will look to take out their frustrations on their division rival after falling to them, 37-29 in Week 7. San Diego's secondary hasn't been horrible and we believe will have an opportunity to make some plays against the Raiders, who oddly enough have played much better on the road than at home this year. While San Diego's season has been an overall bigger disappointment, we actually think these teams are very evenly matched, but for this pick we're going to concentrate on the starting QB's and we'll give Philip Rivers the nod in this matchup over his younger counterpart Derek Carr. Also note that from an Against The Spread stand point, they simply don't get much stronger than this as the Chargers are 4-0 ATS the last two seasons as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range and already 4-2 ATS on the road this season, while Oakland is just 1-3 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite and just 2-5 ATS in front of the home town crowd. Grab as many points as you can with SAN DIEGO.
AAA Sports |
12-24-15 |
Cincinnati v. San Diego State -1.5 | Top | 7-42 |
Win | 100 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on San Diego State.
The Aztecs are making their sixth consecutive bowl appearance, while the Bearcats have gone bowling 13 times since 2000. The Bearcats season though has been a big disappointment and we think the team will simply go through the motions today. Cincinnati was picked by many to win the AAC, but it would stumble to a 7-5 record, snapping a streak of four consecutive seasons with at least nine wins. The Bearcats posted a minus-16 turnover margin in 12 games and there were also poor defensively, giving up an average of 5.8 yards per play and 30.3 points per contest. SDSU may not have faced the quality of opponents that Cincinnati did this year, but the team can tie a school record for the most victories in a season with a win over Cincinnati today. The Aztecs started 1-3, but finished 2015 by winning nine consecutive games, including the Mountain West Championship over Air Force. SDSU RB Donnel Pumphrey rushed for 1,554 yards and 16 scores this year; he also leads the team with 27 catches. Pumphrey though is joined by a stable of competent backs, including Chase Price and Rashaad Penny. Freshman QB Christian Chapman filled in for the injured Maxwell Smith in the win over Air Force and was an efficient 9 of 14 for 203 yards. Chapman will once again only be asked to manage this game, SDSU will be attacking on the ground, an area that the Bearcats struggled in mightily this year, ranking ninth in the AAC in giving up an average of 190.8 yards per game. Also note that Cincinnati would surrender at least 200 yards on the ground in four of its last five games to end the regular season. Cincinnati is also dealing with QB issues, Gunner Kiel won't be starting because of a personal matter, leaving Hayden Moore to carry the load today; Moore is not the same caliber of QB as Kiel is, while he did have four TD's vs. Memphis, he'd also throw eight INT's on 195 attempts. And that doesn't bode well vs. this tough Aztecs defensive unit which allowed only 4.68 yards per play, gave up only 17.2 PPG overall, generated 33 sacks while also forcing 31 takeaways. The Bearcats strength on offense is its receivers, but SDSU's strength on the defensive side of the ball is against the pass, anchored by Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Damontae Kazee. Too many question marks surrounding the Bearcats, our money is on the more complete team, play on SAN DIEGO STATE.
AAA Sports |
12-23-15 |
Boise State v. Northern Illinois +8.5 | Top | 55-7 |
Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Northern Illinois.
Both teams started the season strong, but faltered down the stretch, their reward is still a respectable spot in this year's Poinsettia Bowl. We took Western Kentucky on Monday, we thought the Hilltoppers dynamic offense would prove to be the difference vs. New Mexico and it was. Yesterday we also took an offensive minded school in Toledo, which proved to be too much for what seemed to be a disinterested Temple team. Both teams suffered injuries and both paid the price this year. Boise State opened the year with a big victory over Washington, but back-to-back losses to New Mexico and Air Force in the middle of November de-railed any hopes the team had at being a New Year's Six representative. NIU won the MAC West but was then blown out by Bowling Green, 34-14 in the Championship game. This game is going to feature a lot of running from both sides to set up the pass, NIU leans on Joel Bouagnon, who led the MAC with 1,270 rushing yards along with 18 rushing TD's, while Boise State hands off to Jeremy McNichols, who led the Mountain West with 18 rushing TD's off 1,244 rushing yards. Some may think that Boise State has a small advantage at QB, but note that the Huskies have just as many INT's (21) as TD passes allowed (22). Ultimately though, we don't think either team has too much of an advantage over one another and feel that field position will prove to be the difference in this "chess match." All signs point to the points as the savvy move in this contest, play on NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AAA Sports
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12-22-15 |
South Florida +16 v. Seton Hall | Top | 49-66 |
Loss | -110 | 24 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on South Florida.
While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the large spread they've been afforded tonight. USF is 3-9, while Seton Hall is 9-2. It was only four years ago that these team's were both members of the Big East Conference until the AAC formed in 2013. Last year they met and the Pirates pulled away for the 89-69 victory, making the "revenge factor" a real one today. USF looked pretty good in its 79-68 loss to defending Conference USA champion UAB on Saturday, it was a second consecutive game that the Bulls shot well, going almost 50 percent from the floor, led by senior Angel Nunez with 18 points. USF can play defense with the best in the nation as well, it's third in the conference and 14th in the NCAA in averaging 6.3 blocks per game. Also note that the Bulls are starting to heat up from behind the arc, making 15 three-point bombs over the last two games, after making 15 in their previous seven contests. And finally note that USC has a +9.5 rebounding advantage in its last four games, outrebounding three of its last four opponents. This sets up as a classic "look ahead/letdown" spot for the home side, which has won four straight and seven of its last eight and which enjoys a big Christmas Break after tonight's game, before a huge Big East battle with Marquette on the 30th. Note that South Florida is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 15.5 to 18 points range, while Seton Hall is 3-6 ATS in its last nine as a home favorite of 12.5 points or more. Play on SOUTH FLORIDA.
AAA Sports |
12-21-15 |
San Francisco +17.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 52-74 |
Loss | -110 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single handicapping methodology and believe that being flexible with one's approach is the best way to secure profits over the long-term. We routinely look at many factors, including motivation, scheduling, other external factors along with line price/movement and one thing we always take into consideration are strong and relevant Against The Spread statistics and they're what we're basing this pick on entirely, as note: USF is already 3-1 ATS in true road games this year and 23-16 ATS vs. the conference over the last two, while Saint Mary's is 10-13 ATS in its last 23 after allowing 60 points or less. Play on SAN FRANCISCO.
AAA Sports |
12-21-15 |
Western Kentucky -2.5 v. South Florida | Top | 45-35 |
Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Western Kentucky.
South Florida posted a 6-18 record over the previous two season's before going 8-4 in 2015, thanks in part to strong recruiting from head coach Willie Taggart. Western Kentucky is 19-7 in Jeff Brohm's first two years as head coach and the Hilltoppers have done very well against Power 5 competition, securing a win over Vanderbilt in their season opener, while also taking Indiana and LSU to the brink. With a full two weeks off to prepare for this one, we simply can't see how South Florida can match pace with WKU's high-flying offense, led by QB Brandon Doughty, the unit averaged 44.2 PPG and a large 7.19 yards per play. Doughty finished with 45 TD's and led the nation by completing 71.8 percent of his passes. Doughty is surrounded by talent, the Hilltoppers would be held to under 30 points only once this season. The Bulls strength lies on the defensive side of the ball where they held the opposition to just 21.1 PPG, but we definitely feel that the unit will have its hands full with this explosive Western Kentucky offense. The Bulls offense relies on its powerful run game, but WKU has held its last five opponents under 200 yards rushing. We're giving WKU the advantage across the board and look for the team to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover.
AAA Sports |
12-20-15 |
Browns +14.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 13-30 |
Loss | -107 | 164 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Browns.
Can anyone say "letdown" spot? After four straight victories, including back to back blowouts on the road, the Seahawks finally return home to play the lowly Browns, before finishing the season with games vs. St. Louis and at Arizona. Russell Wilson has been absolutely dominating over that stretch, but the big question exactly is: how has he been doing it? WR Doug Baldwin is on a torrid stretch for the Seahawks, but the team was already without the services of TE Jimmy Graham and has now also lost both of its starting RB's to injury. Cleveland actually matches up very well across the board with Seattle and we think that Johnny Manziel does indeed have more weaponry around him to utilize. Clearly Seattle has the defensive and home field advantages, but these are somewhat negated due to the above mentioned classic letdown/look ahead spot. Also note that from an Against The Spread stand point, this one sets up fantastically as well as Cleveland is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 non-conference games, while Seattle is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 in the same position. This is just a few too many points, so grab as many as you can with the BROWNS.
AAA Sports |
12-19-15 |
Kentucky -10 v. Ohio State | Top | 67-74 |
Loss | -110 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Kentucky.
Kentucky has stumbled for bettors against the spread to open the season, but we expect the Wildcats to make a statement today as they look to finish strong before the Christmas break. Kentucky is 9-1 SU and and is coming off a good win over a veteran Arizona State team last time out. The Wildcats also took out Duke a month ago. Ohio State is 5-5 SU and comes in having won three of its last five, including a 67-54 win over Northern Illinois last time out. This is simply a bad matchup for Ohio State though, which has struggled against athletic and talented big men; and note that from a trend based stand point, they don't get much stronger than this as Ohio State is already 0-3 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less and just 2-3 ATS vs. teams with winning records, while Kentucky is 14-9 ATS in its last 23 neutral court contests. Play on the WILDCATS.
AAA Sports |
12-16-15 |
Northern Arizona +24 v. Arizona | Top | 37-92 |
Loss | -110 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on Northern Arizona.
Northern Arizona is just 2-6, while Arizona is 9-1. While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the Lumberjacks to do just enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. We won't try to convince you that Northern Arizona is a great team which has just caught some unlucky breaks, or that the Wildcats are over-rated and lucky to be where they are, that's not the case obviously. NAU is a poor team, while Arizona is a great team. However, this is simply a bad "spot" for the home side and one which we can definitely take advantage of: after winning five of their last six, it's not too hard to imagine the Wildcats "looking past" lowly Northern Arizona today to their matchup at UNLV on Saturday, a team which they lost 71-67 to last season. And note that from a trend based stand point, they simply don't get much stronger than this, as NAU is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 after scoring 60 points or less and 17-12 ATS in its last 29 vs. teams with winning records, while Arizona is already 0-2 ATS this year vs. teams with losing records and interestingly, only 1-2 ATS in its last three vs. poor defensive teams which allow 77-plus points per game. Play on NORTHERN ARIZONA.
AAA Sports |
12-14-15 |
Southern Miss v. South Alabama -6 | Top | 57-54 |
Loss | -110 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on South Alabama.
The South Alabama Jaguars are 3-5 and are coming off a 68-55 loss at MTSU last time out, but with nine whole days off between games for exams, we look for the well rested and now focused home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover: "I think the break has been really good," USA head coach Matthew Graves assessed on Saturday. "It's given us a chance to reevaluate some things that we're doing offensive and defensively. It's allowed a couple of guys to get healed up a little bit. We have a three-game mini-season before we head into Christmas break and the conference season, so I'm looking forward to it." The Jaguars have been particularly sharp on the defensive end of the floor and we look for that momentum to get carried over here, note that South Alabama has forced 19.3 turnovers with 10.3 steals in its last three contests. Southern Miss is just 1-6 this season, opening the campaign with six consecutive setbacks, before breaking the slide with a 74-62 win over NDSU on Monday. Note though that USM is last in Conference USA in scoring offense and we definitely have a hard time seeing the visitors mounting much of an attack vs. this aggressive Jaguars defense. Also note that Southern Miss is 0-2 ATS in its last two when playing with seven or more days rest, while South Alabama is 2-0 in the same position (and finally note that the Jaguars are 10-5 ATS their last 15 when playing the role of favorite); play on SOUTH ALABAMA.
AAA Sports |
12-13-15 |
Falcons +7.5 v. Panthers | Top | 0-38 |
Loss | -115 | 144 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Atlanta Falcons.
While we won't be so bold as to call for the outright, straight-up victory, we do think that the weight of an undefeated season, combined with what we believe to be a classic "look-ahead/letdown" spot, will be enough of a distraction for the home side to let the visitors slip in through the back door down the stretch. Carolina gutted out a victory over a struggling Saints team last week, but only by the skin of its teeth. Things couldn't be more dire in Atlanta, a fifth straight loss against Tampa Bay last weekend means that the team is now in a do-or-die scenario every weekend, another loss and it'll be the nail in the coffin for Atlanta. Desperation breeds motivation. After opening the season 5-0, the Falcons have imploded; but that said, we think that Matt Rayan and company have a big opportunity today, as note that New Orleans' offense looked unstoppable last week, after being held to just six points in a 24-6 setback at Houston the week before. And with two road games, before a date at home vs. Tampa Bay at the end of the season, it's not too big a stretch to picture the home side "looking past" the lowly Falcons in some small way to the final part of its schedule. Also note that Atlanta is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, while Carolina is just 1-2 ATS vs. division opponents this year. Grab as many points as you can with the FALCONS.
AAA Sports |
12-13-15 |
Chargers +10 v. Chiefs | Top | 3-10 |
Win | 100 | 144 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Diego Chargers.
While we won't be so bold as to call for an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to keep this one more competitive than what the oddsmakers would lead us to believe. The Chargers play for pride at this point, they'll also be looking to avoid being swept by the Chiefs for a second straight season. San Diego was just embarrassed 33-3 at home to Kansas City in Week 11. Philip Rivers and the offense looked pretty horrible in last week's 17-3 loss to the Broncos, but so do many offenses obviously, Denver possesses the No. 1 overall defensive unit in the league. And on the flip-side, the Bolts did look decent defensively. And for us, there's no question that this sets up as a classic "trap game," for the suddenly surging home side, which comes in off six-straight victories, including a 34-20 decision over the Raiders last week. The Chiefs remaining schedule is extremely weak, and while surely the team will be looking to take advantage, with games at Baltimore, and at home vs. Cleveland and Oakland to finish the season, it's not too hard to imagine them "looking ahead" to what the future could hold. From a situational stand point, this one sets up perfectly for us; also note that San Diego is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 7.5 to 12 points range and 13-9 ATS in its last 22 on the road, while Kansas City is just 10-11 ATS in its last 21 at home and already 0-1 ATS this season as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 12 points range. Play on the CHARGERS.
AAA Sports |
12-13-15 |
49ers v. Browns -1 | Top | 10-24 |
Win | 100 | 144 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Cleveland Browns.
We think that Johnny Manziel and the home side do just enough to slow down the suddenly surging Blaine Gabbert and the San Francisco 49ers. These teams are horrible, San Francisco is ranked 32nd overall on offense this year and 28th overall on the defensive side, while Cleveland ranks 26th overall on offense and 29th overall on defense. Manziel and Gabbert are playing for their future careers, so there's still a lot at stake for each pivot, despite their team's being out of the playoff picture. This sets up as a huge letdown spot for San Francisco in our professional opinion, which got a super-human effort out of Gabbert to snap a five-game road losing streak last week. Manziel is the better QB, he'll be plenty focused after being benched for two games for disciplinary reasons, the last time he suited up he had 372 yards vs. a vastly superior Pittsburgh defense back on November 15th. Also note that Cleveland will surely be looking to take out some frustrations after suffering its worst loss last week to the Bengals since 2005. Note that San Francisco is 2-4 ATS on the road this season and just 9-10 ATS its last 19 as an underdog, while Cleveland is 6-4 ATS in its last ten non-conference contests. Lay the short points on the BROWNS.
AAA Sports |
12-13-15 |
Titans +7.5 v. Jets | Top | 8-30 |
Loss | -124 | 144 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Tennessee Titans.
We are not entirely convinced of the suddenly surging Ryan Fitzpatrick and the New York Jets and think the visitors can keep this one a lot more competitive that what the oddsmaker are leading us to believe. Tennessee has the offense to match Fitzpatrick and WR's Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall. After back-to-back victories, there's no question that this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the home side, and with games at Dallas, vs. New England and at Buffalo to end the year, there's also no doubt whatsoever that this sets up as a classic look ahead spot for the Jets as well. Two classic betting spots that are clearly working in our favor. Tennessee has been getting progressively better over the last few weeks, culminating in a break-out 42-39 victory over Jacksonville last week. Marcus Mariota and company will be looking to play spoiler down the stretch, with games at New England next week and vs. Houston and at Indianapolis to end the season. Note that Tennessee is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while New York is just 4-5 ATS as a favorite this season and already 0-1 ATS after two or more consecutive SU victories. Play on the TITANS.
AAA Sports |
12-11-15 |
North Dakota State -6 v. North Dakota | Top | 69-67 |
Loss | -110 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* RED DRAGON on North Dakota State.
NDSU beat UND 71-42 on December 14th, 2014, but the last time these teams played at Betty Engelstad Sioux Center, North Dakota would win 95-77. It was a rough game too, as both teams were whistled for a combined 77 fouls. The Bison have not won in Grand Forks since 2003: "That's a long time," said Bison head coach Dave Richman. "We want to right that." North Dakota State is 5-3, while the Fighting Warhawks are 4-4. We think this sets up as a letdown spot for the home side, which is coming off a thrilling 65-59 double-OT win at Bradley on Saturday. Conversely, NDSU comes in off two straight losses, suffice it to say we expect the visitors to be extremely focused today. And from a trend based stand point, they simply don't get much stronger than this as North Dakota State is 2-0 ATS in its last two after playing three consecutive road games and 16-13 ATS in its last 29 non-conference games, while North Dakota is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven when playing with five or six days of rest and just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 in front of the home town crowd. Play on the BISON.
AAA Sports |
12-09-15 |
Bulls +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 100-105 |
Loss | -110 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 10* ASSASSIN on the Chicago Bulls.
While we obviously wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as we look for the visitors to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch with the handful of points that have been afforded to them. The C's return home after a successful 3-2 road trip and suffice it to say, we believe this does now indeed set up as a classic letdown spot for them. Conversely, the Bulls will be extra focused tonight to stop a two-game slide, but have to be feeling pretty confident in this matchup as they've won three straight and 13 of the last 17 in the series. The Bulls had been playing well up to their recent slide: "I don't know what it is," guard Jimmy Butler assessed last night. "Can't close teams out; have a lead, don't finish, lose games ... We keep talking about it, yadda, yadda, yadda, but eventually we're going to have to fix it or we're going to keep finding ourselves on the losing end of ball games." Note that Chicago is 3-2 ATS in its last five off an upset loss as a favorite, while Boston is just 17-18 ATS in its last 35 following a victory by ten points or more. Play on the BULLS.
AAA Sports |