Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-30-14 | California v. Fresno State +7.5 | Top | 64-57 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG TOP PLAY on Fresno State. Frenso State has just one win this year and it came on its home floor. The Bulldogs return to Fresno State to play in front of the home town crowd off an 0-4 road trip and I think will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This is a revenge game as well, California beat Fresno State 67-56 back on December 14th, 2013 in Berkeley. The Bulldogs are led by junior guard Marvelle Harris with 14.3 PPG; Julien Lewis is averaging 16.0 PPG. The Bears are 4-1 on the year, with wins over Syracuse, Cal Poly and a loss to then No. 10 Texas most recently. In my opinion, a little home cooking is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, with 16 home games last year, Fresno State went 11-5 at the Save Mart Center. Note that California is 10-12 ATS in its last 22 after allowing 60 points or less and just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 vs. teams with losing records. And note that Fresno State is 3-2 ATS its last five as a home dog of 6.5 to 9 points and 13-7 ATS in its last 20 vs. good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. Grab as many points as you can, play on FRESNO STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-30-14 | Hamilton Tiger-Cats v. Calgary Stampeders -8 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* DESTROYER on the Calgary Stampeders. Calgary has been an elite team in the CFL for a few seasons but it does not have much to show for it. However, after destroying the Eskimos last weekend, I think the Stamps continue to roll behind their plethora of offensive and defensive weapons. Note that Calgary beat Hamilton twice this year without star RB Jon Cornish in the lineup; Cornish though is a beast and I think will run roughshod over the Tigercats today. The Stampeders are a veteran, playoff-tested team and are coached by one of the best in John Hufnagel. Stampeders QB Bo Levi Mitchell is on fire right now, Hamilton does have a stout run defense, but with its attention on Cornish, expect Calgary’s dynamic pivot to also have a big game today. With Calgary controlling the time of possession, I simply can’t see Hamilton keeping pace and look for the STAMPEDERS to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-30-14 | San Diego Chargers +4.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 34-33 | Win | 100 | 130 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the San Diego Chargers. The visitors come into this game as a large underdog and I feel they are getting well undervalued despite a good chance to win this game outright. In a close game, I recommend taking as many points as you can. The Chargers come in hot off two straight home wins over Oakland and St. Louis. The offense has struggled for the Chargers over the past few games but is starting to show some signs of life after putting up 27 points against a good Jeff Fisher led defense in the Rams. Philip Rivers was 29 of 35 for 291 yards, but it was the rushing attack that experienced the greatest awakening. Ryan Matthews led the way with 105 yards rushing on just 12 carries in his second game back. The Chargers team is starting to resemble the team we saw last season make a run at the end to earn a wild card spot thanks to good efforts as underdogs. I expect them to continue their run of good play here. Meanwhile, the home side Baltimore is also coming off two wins in row. The most recent was an impressive road win under the lights of Monday Night Football in New Orleans. Suffice to say, I am anticipating a letdown after winning on the big national stage. The Ravens will also have the disadvantage of a short work week to prepare for the Chargers in this spot. Philip Rivers really is the key in this game and I anticipate a big game from him as he goes up against a Ravens defense that ranks just 29th (264.6) against the pass in the entire league. We can’t forget a 16-13 game between these two teams last season in southern California that the Ravens managed to pull out. The Chargers will go for revenge as the underdog. Keep in mind they have been a profitable 14-10 as the underdog the past three seasons. With a close heavily contested game very likely here, all signs point to the CHARGERS as the smart move here. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-29-14 | San Jose State +13.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* MOUNTAIN WEST SIDE DESTRUCTION on San Jose State. San Diego State is 6-5 and is bowl eligible. At 3-8, the Spartans will just be playing for pride today. The last time these teams met, SDSU would have to hold on for a 34-30 victory and I firmly believe that we’ll see a similar outcome in this one and will therefore recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Spartans have lost five straight, but with QB Mitch Ravizza set to make his first collegiate start, I think the visitors come to play today; this is Ravizza’s audition for him to earn a role next year. Ravizza’s playbook should be a bit bigger this week as well and I think can catch the Aztecs off guard (note that San Jose State is actually fifth in the conference in total offense). The chances of SDSU advancing to the Mountain West championship game are pretty slim, not only does it have to win today, but it also has to hope that Hawaii upsets Fresno State. From a situational stand point, this selection is as solid as it gets. And from a trend based angle, the play gets even stronger as note that San Jose State is 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while SDSU is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the same points range. In my opinion, this is a few too many points to be giving up, play on SAN JOSE STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-28-14 | Golden State Warriors v. Charlotte Hornets +8.5 | Top | 106-101 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Charlotte Hornets. This is a great situationally based selection. Desperation breeds motivation and I think the Hornets will keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded tonight. I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the surging Warriors, they’ve won seven straight. Conversely, Charlotte already has its back against the wall at this point of the season as it’s lost seven straight. This is also a “revenge” game for the home side after it fell 112-87 in Golden State on November 15th. Note that the Hornets weren’t overly horrible in their 105-97 setback to red-hot Portland on Wednesday as Brian Roberts come off the bench to score a career-high 24, while big man Al Jefferson added 21 points and 14 boards. Interestingly, the Warriors have dropped 13 of the last 15 in Charlotte and are just 28-31 ATS the last two seasons after a victory by ten points or more. And note that Charlotte has been money in this spot for bettors, 5-3 ATS in its last eight following a non-conference contest. While I won’t go so far as to call for the outright upset, I do definitely feel that the conditions are right for a highly competitive affair and will ultimately recommend in grabbing as many points as you can; play on the HORNETS. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-27-14 | San Jose State v. Washington -10.5 | Top | 56-78 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT on Washington. The Huskies head out of State for the first time this year to participate in the 2014 DirecTV Wooden Legacy Tournament held in Anaheim Califorinia and open with San Jose State at Titan Gym on the campus of Cal State Fullerton. This contest is the night cap and will be televised nationally on ESPN 2 and suffice it to say, I like Washington to make an example of the Spartans today. The dogs certainly come in with momentum, they’re 3-0 SU to start the year for the first time since 2011-12 and have three players averaging in double figures, including Shawn Kemp Jr (15.7), Andrew Andrews (13.7) and Nigel Williams-Goss (12.7). Washington is a big team and I simply can’t see San Jose State keeping pace down the stretch; note that the groups winspan is 4.5 inches longer than their actual height. The Huskies can get the job done at both ends of the court as well, they’re currently first in the conference and 46th in the country in fewest turnovers and are second in the Pac-12 and 45th nationally in fewest fouls. The Spartans have lost three-straight SU and have really struggled to find any offensive consistency; note that San Jose State is averaging just 59.3 points on 38.2 percent shooting, while giving up 68.7 points on 39.9 percent shooting. Frank Rogers leads San Jose State with 11.7 points and 7.7 boards. Also note that that Spartans are turning the ball over 18 times per game; and note that San Jose State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five neautral site games. This is a completely lop-sided matchup, I think Washington comes in focused in its first game away from friendly confines and pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on the HUSKIES. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-27-14 | TCU -6.5 v. Texas | Top | 48-10 | Win | 100 | 64 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on TCU. No. 6 TCU is coming off a close victory against lowly Kansas before its bye week and must win and win big to impress for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The 9-1 Horned Frogs dropped from No. 4 to No. 5 in the CFP rankings after having to rally from a 10-point deficit vs. the Jayhawks for a 34-30 win on November 15th. So, barring a string of major upsets, TCU needs to close the regular season in dominant form to have a chance to get back into the top four (after today’s game it plays Iowa in its finale on December 6th): "Our job is to keep our nose down and to finish the journey. That's what we're trying to get accomplished," coach Gary Patterson assessed earlier in the week. TCU is also gunning for a Big 12 title, competing with Baylor and K-State and to keep its five game win skein in tact, it will have to end Texas’ three-game win streak. Texas comes in off a 28-7 win over Oklahoma State on November 15th, becoming bowl eligible under first year head coach Charlie Strong. The Longhorns have certainly looked pretty good over the last month, but I think will run into a buzzsaw here, the Horned Frogs have one of the Big 12’s most dynamic offensive units, led by Trevone Boykin. In fact, TCU’s 45.9 PPG trail only Baylor’s 50.0 in the FBS, and its whopping 541.6 YPG ranks it in the Top five. Note that this also sets up as a revenge game for TCU after it had to deal with poor weather conditions, which caused a delay of almost four-hours, in a 30-7 home loss to the Longhorns back on October 26th, 2013. As good as Texas has been in November, the situational factors are clearly working in TCU’s favor; note that the Horned Frogs are 5-2 ATS vs. conference opponents this year and 5-1 ATS in their last six following a bye week. And note that Texas is just 2-3 ATS at home this season and a poor 6-9 ATS in its last 15 off a win vs. a conference rival. In my opinion, all signs point to a blowout, play on TCU. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-25-14 | Ohio -2 v. Miami (OH) | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Ohio. The Battle of The Bricks gets ready to renew tonight, the Miami RedHawks are going to be honoring 13 seniors, but when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I look for the Bobcats to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. If history is any precedence, then Ohio has to be loving its chances today as it’s won seven of the last eight in the series. The ramifactions of these two teams meeting this year is not overly consequential, but at 5-6, the Bobcats still desperately need one more win to become bowl eligible for the sixth straight season. The RedHawks would love to play spoiler obviously, but I simply can’t see the team being able to handle OU’s running attack, AJ Ouellette leads Ohio with seven TD’s and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts. QB Derrius Vick is a dual threat and that spells bad news for Miami Ohio, which has struggled all season with mobile pivots. In fact, the RedHawks have gotten progressively worse as the season has worn on, allowing an average of 245 rushing yards in November. Miami is a tough team at home and has a dangerous passing attack, but the situational edge still definitely lies with the visitors. From a trend based stand point, the Bobcats also get the nod; note that Ohio is already 3-1 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite, while Miami Ohio is just 2-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd. I’m laying the short points, play on the BOBCATS. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-24-14 | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE MNF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Baltimore Ravens. I think the visitors are getting severely undervalued in this spot and while I do believe the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Home field advantage has been anything but for the Saints this year, they come into tonight’s game having lost two straight in New Orleans. Two weeks ago it was a 27-24 OT setback to San Fran, last week was a 27-10 loss to Cincinnati. Note that the home side will be down two starters today in receiver Brandin Crooks and safety Rafael Bush as well. Baltimore, like New Orleans, is in a divisional race of its own and ended a two-game slide with a 21-7 victory over Tennessee on November 9th, its bye-week coming at a fantastic time as the team has been able to heal up and focus for the final push: “Players took some time off and kind of emotionally and physically recharged a little bit," Ravens’ coach John Harbaugh said earlier in the week. "You don't realize how exhausted you are until you get a chance to take a deep breath and relax." RB Justin Forsett had a big game vs. the Titans, he rushed for 112 yards and two TD’s on 20 carries; and that doesn’t bode well for New Orleans as it is allowing 4.8 YPC and 146.3 RYP game over the last three weeks. Also note that the Saints have struggled against the pass virtually all year, ranking 24th at 255.2 YPG and they’re also tied for the fifth-fewest takeaways. The Ravens are equally as inept against the pass, but note that Baltimore is 3-0 ATS in non-conference games this year and 3-0 ATS vs. teams with losing records. And note that the Saints are already 0-2 ATS this year in non-conference games and just 2-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd. All signs point to the RAVENS as the sharp move here. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-24-14 | NY Jets +3 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 3-38 | Loss | -125 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the New York Jets. A great situational play as the Jets are finally coming off a convincing win and don’t even have to play the Bills in Buffalo; this is also a “revenge spot” after Buffalo annihilated New York earlier in the season. While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The storm in Buffalo forced the Bills to miss practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. Note that Buffalo had last weekend off following a listless 22-9 loss at Miami on November 13th, the second straight setback has all but eliminated the team from playoff contention. Buffalo QB Kyle Orton was shaky in the game, completing 22 of 39 passes for 193 yards, failing to get the Bills into the endzone and also suffering a toe injury in the process. The Jets have a “new” QB under center as well as Mike Vick will once again get the start here, New York posted 275 total yards of offense in beating Pittsburgh 20-13 in Week 10 before entering its bye. Note that the Jets are 6-5 ATS in their last 11 in revenging a loss vs. an opponent, while Buffalo is already 1-4 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite. All signs do indeed point to NEW YORK as the savvy move here. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-23-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Seattle Seahawks -7 | Top | 3-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Seattle Seahawks. Here’s a huge divisional battle, Arizona is the best team not only in the competitive NFC West, but also in the NFL. The defending champions have struggled for the most part this year, but when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I look for the home side to take care of business and send the Cardinals a resounding message. This is also a revenge game for Seattle after Arizona handed the Seahawks their only home loss in 2013. Arizona has won six straight since losing to Denver in Week 5 and has continued its success despite some offensive issues, most notably in losing QB Carson Palmer to season-ending knee injury in Week 10; so far Drew Stanton has been decent, he’s now 3-1 as a starter this year. The Cards are coming off a 14-6 win over Detroit last week. Note that star WR Larry Fitzgerald suffered a sprained MCL on Sunday. I think that Arizona is going to be overwhelmed today though, the one two running punch of Marshawn Lynch and QB Russell Wilson is a formidable one. From a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this is a sound play as well, note that Arizona is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9 points range, while Seattle is a perfect 7-0 ATS its last seven as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. I think the Cardinals numerous injuries on the offensive side of the ball finally catch up to them here and the home side pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on SEATTLE. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-22-14 | Eastern Washington v. SMU -14.5 | Top | 68-77 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* PLATINUM CLUB on SMU. For a number of different motivational, situational and trend based resaons, I expect SMU to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover today. Mustangs’ coach Larry Brown said that he was “sick to his stomach” after the 23rd-ranked team lost for the second time in their first three games this year: "I'm looking at this as an opportunity for other people to step up," said Brown yesterday. "I saw some kids making progress and moving in the right direction. We don't have a leader right now. Everybody is worrying about playing time and different things that really don't matter. But we'll get it straightened out." Eastern Washington is coming off three straight blowout wins and I think comes in a bit complacent here and runs into a buzzsaw, a focused and determined home side looking to take out its frustrations on someone. And note that despite being a heavily sized underdog today, this in fact sets up as a lookahead spot for the visitors with Indiana on deck on Monday. Note that it’s interesting to note that the Eagles don’t have any seniors on their roster. And note that Eastern Washington is 0-3 ATS the last two seasons as a road dog in the 12.5 to 15 points range, while SMU is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. All signs point to Browns’ team focusing on the task at hand and pulling off the convincing victory; play ont he MUSTANGS. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-22-14 | Colorado +32.5 v. Oregon | Top | 10-44 | Loss | -106 | 22 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on Colorado. I think the Buffs can keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor with what I feel is a healthy amount of points they’ve been afforded here. Marcus Mariota and the Oregon Ducks are inching their way closer in reaching the College Football Playoffs, but I think come in a bit complacent as the team enjoys senior day and all the festivities and hype surrounding the event. Note that Oregon has already clinched a spot in the Pac-12 title game and is currently ranked No. 2 in the College Football Playoff rankings. I’m not going to try and convince you that Colorado is a good team, obviously it’s horrible, but I do think this a prime situational play and this is way too many points to be giving up. Note that Mariota is likely going to be forced to work with a new center today as Hroniss Grasu suffered a leg injury in the Ducks’ 51-27 win at then No. 20 Utah on November 8th. Also note that Oregon will be without the services of TE Pharaoh Brown, who was injured in the Utah win as well. Colorado is unsure at this point who will get the start under center, but one man to keep your eyes on is Nelson Spruce, the WR is tied for fourth in the country with 11 TD receptions and is seventh overall with 1,091 yards. One thing we can count on today from the Buffs while they’re on offesnse is a steady dose of the run game, not only because they are averaging 172.9 yards per contest in Pac-12 contests (good enough for third in the conference), but also so as to limit Oregon’s time of possession. Note, already 4-3 ATS this year as an underdog, Colorado is also 4-3 ATS vs. conference opponents. And note that Oregon is already 0-2 ATS this year as a favorite of 31 points or more this season and just 5-6 ATS in the same position over the last two. In my opinion, all signs point to COLORADO as the sharp move here. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-20-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders +9 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oakland Raiders. While I won’t go so far as to call for its first win of the season, I do think that Oakland will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and like the Raiders to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel is a healthy amount of points afforded to them here. Talk about two teams moving in opposite directions. The Chiefs have postseason aspirations and can ill afford a letdown here as they look to notch their sixth straight win. The Raiders are looking to avoid a 17th straight loss. KC is coming off a 24-20 win over Seattle and I think is primed for a letdown here. A short week on national television after beating the defending champs, I think Oakland can take advantage. Also note, this is a “look ahead” spot as well as Kansas City will play the Broncos in a revenge scenario under the lights in front of the home town crowd next week. KC is not unaware of the fact that this is a “trap” game, but despite how much teams say they are prepared for these types of contests, invariably they’re not. Think about it. You just beat the defending champs, a few days later you have to play the absolute dregs of the league while looking ahead to a prime time matchup vs. an arch nemesis. From a situational standpoint, it doesn’t get much better than this. It hasn’t been all doom and gloom for Oakland either, it’s actually allowed just 12 sacks this year, which ranks second fewest in the league. And that’s good news for the continued development of rookie Derek Carr, who has shown flashes of his College brilliance at times this year. Last week Carr was 16 of 24 for 172 yards in a chess match loss with San Diego. And to say this is a “revenge” game for Oakland would obviously be a massive understatement. A fantastic situational dual spot wager, play on OAKLAND. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-19-14 | Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 v. Orlando Magic | Top | 114-90 | Win | 100 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the LA Clippers. This is a big game for the Clippers who play the first of seven on the road and suffice it to say, I like this underachieving visiting side to take control of this contest from the outset and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. LA will be extra motivated here as it looks to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time this year, most recently coming off a listless 105-89 setback to Chicago on Monday. It was a pathetic effort, it was the second time in three games that the Clippers were held to under 90 points, already matching their total from last year. Orlando has actually played the Clippers tough recently, they’d split both meetings in each of the last two seasons. Orlando has played better than expected at 5-7, living and dying with the 3-ball, knocking down a season-high 13 in 26 attempts in Monday’s 107-93 win at Detroit. However, take note that Orlando has struggled in this spot for bettors for a LONG time, it’s a deplorable 36-48 ATS the last two seasons in front of the home town crowd and oddly enough, just 29-44 ATS in the same time frame vs. poor defensive teams which give up 99-plus points per game. Conversely, this is a position that the Clippers have been money in, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points and 24-15 ATS in their last 39 off an upset loss as a favorite. As I said off the top, this is a very important game for LA, while I also think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Magic; play on the CLIPPERS. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-18-14 | UMass v. Akron -7 | Top | 6-30 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Akron. This is a must-win game for Akron as it stil has bowl hopes, it’s coming off four straight SU losses and six straight ATS setbacks. Suffice it to say, I think the Zips take care of business at home tonight. Conversely, Massachusetts will not be going to a bowl game unless it sweeps out and gets some help, and while it’s won three of its last four SU, it’s been a covering machine all year, it comes into this contest having covered six-straight games. While Akron would secure the 14-13 win over UMass last season, it failed to cover the 7 point spread and this fact makes today’s play even stronger in my opinion. For the most part I am a situational handicapper, but one of the other main factors that I like to take advantage of are lop-sided trends and numbers and in this case, there’s no question that all signs point to Akron has the savvy move here. And from a trend based stand point, this play is super strong as well, not that Massachusetts is 12-14 ATS in its last 26 when playing with six or less days rest, while Akron is 8-7 ATS in its last 15 after two or more consecutive SU losses. As I’ve mentioned many times already, I think this is a great situational play on AKRON. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-15-14 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Duke | Top | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 109 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* ACC SUPER-BLOWOUT on Virginia Tech. Duke is 8-1 overall and 4-1 in league play, while Virginia Tech is 4-5 overall and 1-4 in conference action. While the Hokies will not be competing for the conference crown, they are still bowl hopeful, meaning that every game from this point on is almost a must win and it’s because of this fact that I think they’ll keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I think this will be a one possession game in the end, this sets up perfectly as a letdown spot for Duke I think. This is the opener of a three-game home stand for the Blue Devils vs. teams that are a combined 10-17 right now. "They're for real," Virginia Tech coach Frank Beamer said yesterday. "Certainly for real." But as I like to say, desperation breeds motivation and this also sets up as a revenge game for the Hokies after Duke came into Lane Stadium to win 13-10 last year. I also think that Duke gets caught looking ahead to rival North Carolina on Thursday night, which will end the run of three games in a 13-day span for the home side. The visitors have something to build off, VT would outscore BC 21-10 in the final frame on November 1st, but it would not be enough in the 33-31 finale (you’ll remember that I had the OVER in that contest). Note that the Hokies have not dropped four straight in the ACC since joining the confernece in 2004 and have never lost five ACC games in a single season: “I hate losing," VT senior wide receiver Willie Byrn said earlier in the week. "The way it will be salvaged is if we learn something from it. I hate hearing people saying we're going to be great next year. The seniors put so much work into it." And note that Virginia Tech is 2-1 ATS in its last three as a road underdog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. I think the conditions are definitely right for the HOKIES to escape with at least an ATS cover today. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-13-14 | East Carolina -1 v. Cincinnati | Top | 46-54 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on East Carolina. I played this game the moment it came out and got a favorable -1 line, it’s climbed since then, however I still love it. East Carolina will look to move back atop the AAC on Friday after its five-game winning streak was snapped to Temple on November 1st, losing five fumbles and committing 12 penalties in a sloppy, windy and rainy 20-10 road setback. It was a freak loss, if we dig a little deeper we see that there is some definite room to read between the lines as the Pirates would outgain the Owls by 293 yards and collect 30 first downs compared to Temple’s 10. Cincinnati on the other hand would trash Tulane 38-14 on October 31st and has three straight wins of at least 17 points (note though that it’s come over teams in the bottom half of the conference). Ultimately though, I think after their last debacle that the Pirates come to play today, QB Shane Carden was held to a season-low 217 yards and was held without a TD throw for the first time since last year’s regular-season finale. For the home side, starting QB Gunner Kiel is still injured, meaning that Munchie Legaux will earn another start today. Legaux likes to get out of the pocket and run when he can, but note that East Carolina ranks eighth in the FBS in run defense and has held its last six opponents to fewer than 100 yards rushing. Note that East Carolina is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last two seasons off a loss vs. a conference foe, while Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last six when playing the role of underdog. I look for Carden and company to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover, play on EAST CAROLINA. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-11-14 | Toledo +4 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Toledo. These teams are pretty evenly matched, I think it’s going to come down to a one score outcome and therefore definitely feel that the value lies in grabbing the points. Toledo is bowl eligible at 6-3 but will look to keep the momentum rolling, seeking a third straight victory today. While the Rockets have been winning, note they haven’t been covering; suffice it to say, I think that changes this week. Toledo is coming off a 7 point win over Massachusetts and a 10 point victory over Kent State. NIU is 7-2 and has won three-straight. The Huskies employ a run-first offense, Cameron Stingily has 625 yards on the ground with eight TD’s. QB Drew Hare can also get out of the pocket. NIU is one dimensional on offense, while Toledo is much more balanced, the team averages 250 on the ground and another 250 through the air, averaging a whopping 34 PPG. The Rockets are led by QB Logan Woodside who has 1,700 yards and 14 major score. Toledo has faced some incredibily stiff competition out of conference, which makes them that much more dangerous in MAC play in my opinion. From a trend based stand point, this is definitely a solid play, note that Toledo is 6-4 ATS in its last ten vs. teams with winning records, while Northern Illinois is already 1-2 ATS this year off a win vs. a conference rival. Obviously I feel that the outright win isn’t out of the question here, but in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can with TOLEDO. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-10-14 | San Antonio Spurs v. Los Angeles Clippers -2.5 | Top | 89-85 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LA Clippers. I think the home side will do just enough here to escape with the SU and subsequent ATS victory. LA would love nothing more than to kick the defending champs while they’re down. The Spurs are just 2-3 and hardly resemble the squad that won the title last year, most recently losing 100-99 to New Orleans on Saturday. San Antonio simply can’t score right now, it ranks in the NBA’s bottom third in scoring, field-goal percentage, 3-point percentage and turnovers per game. Key injuries aren’t helping matters as the team will once again be without the services of Tiago Splitter, Marco Belinelli and Patty Mills. The Clippers are 4-2, but have yet to cover the spread, they beat Portland 106-102 on Saturday, unable to cover on the closing line. This plays gets stronger when taking into account the revenge factor, San Antonio took two of three in last season’s series, including the last two by double digits. Note that the Spurs are just 21-22 ATS the last two seasons following a divisional contest, while the Clippers are 43-32 ATS the last two years vs. teams with losing records. In my opinion, this line should be a little larger, all signs point to LA as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-10-14 | Carolina Panthers +7.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -135 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on the Carolina Panthers. For a number of different reasons I believe the Panthers can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Philadelphia Eagles would beat Houston 31-21 last Sunday and that victory coupled with the Cowboys 28-17 home loss to Arizona catupulted them into first place in the NFC East. But note, the win came at a big price as starting QB Nick Foles was lost with a broken clavicle. That means that oft-maligned Mark Sanchez will be under center for the home side; he’d finish 15 of 22 for 202 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s in place of Foles. The Eagles will also have to play without MLB DeMeco Ryans for the rest of the year after he tore his achilles on Sunday. Also note that RG Todd Herremans is also gone for the year with injury. Carolina has an opportunity to regain the division lead with an outright upset win today after the Saints lost in OT to the San Francisco 49ers. The 3-5-1 Panthers are still very optimistic: "I've been in a race like this before, we all have," coach Ron Rivera said earlier in the week. "It ends up being the team that comes back, that gets up and keeps fighting. The next thing you know, you're right in the thick of things." Note that the Panthers benefit from the expected return of linemen Amini Silatholu, Trai Turner and Byron Bell after all three sat with injuries to the Saints; and that’s obviously great news for QB Cam Newton, who is coming off a career-worst effort in the setback to New Orleans. Note though that Newton threw for 306 yards and two TD’s and ran for 52 with a pair of scores in a 30-22 win at Philadelphia back in 2012. Also note that Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range and 5-3 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses, while the Eagles are just 7-8 ATS their last 15 vs. teams with losing records and only 2-4 ATS their last six as a home fav in the 3.5 to 7.5 points range. You may want to also consider “sprinkling a little” on the money line as well, in my opinion all signs point to the PANTHERS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-09-14 | Charlotte Hornets v. Los Angeles Lakers +3.5 | Top | 92-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the LA Lakers. If you didn’t know, Charles Barkley has vowed not to eat another meal until the LA Lakers can get a win. Chuck must know something though, we all know how much he enjoys eating. While the oddsmakers have the Lakers as the underdog here, I think they have a very legitimate shot at winning this one outright, ultimately though I will recommend grabbing as many points as you can. A big advantage I think for LA today is the fact that it’s had four whole days off to refocus and prepare for this one. Kobe Bryant had 39 points in a 112-106 home loss to Phoenix on Tuesday: "Just get a damn win," Kobe said yesterday. "You can't listen to what everybody says. You can't listen to people. You've got to be stubborn as a mule. You've got to keep chipping away. Got to keep competing and going after it, and this thing will turn around. Just as easily as we lost five in a row, we can turn around and win five in a row." "It's good to have a few days to home in on a few things, and work on stuff that needs to be done," coach Byron Scott said. "There's a good vibe. Our guys understand that it's the start of the season and not the end." Charlotte is 3-3 and has won two straight, but note that it’s already 0-2 on the road this season, a place that it’s struggled in for a long time. Note that Charlotte is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, while LA is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as a home dog in the 3.5 to 6 points range. Consider “sprinkling a little” on the money line as well, play on the LAKERS. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-09-14 | San Francisco 49ers +5 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 132 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the San Francisco 49ers. Desperation breeds motivation, San Francisco has looked brilliant at times this year and pretty pedestrian at others, but I think has a real shot at winning this one outright. Both teams are at 4-4. New Orleans though comes in a bit complacent I think today, its back to back wins have propelled it into first in the week division. San Francisco on the other hand has dropped two straight and finds itself three games behind West-leading Arizona and a game back of Seattle. The visitors will be especially motivated here after last week’s ugly 13-10 home loss to division rival St. Louis. QB Colin Kaepernick was sacked eight times last week after being sacked just six times in the first seven games; Kaepernick definitely catches a break this week though vs. this suspect Saints unit. New Orleans comes in off a 28-10 win over Carolina but the victory came at a cost; already down RB’s Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson, FB Austin Johnson was lost due to an injury. San Francisco gets a bit healthier defensively this week though with the expected return of LB Patrick Willis. Note that San Francisco is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last two seasons after two or more consecutive SU losses, while New Orleans is just 5-6 ATS the last two years after two or more consecutive SU victories. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to SAN FRANCISCO as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-08-14 | Portland Trail Blazers v. Los Angeles Clippers -4 | Top | 102-106 | Push | 0 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the LA Clippers. The Clippers have not covered the spread once yet this season, but I think will finally pull away down the stretch in this one for the comfortable ATS cover. And certainly LA will be ultra motivated here after a humbling 121-104 setback to the Warriors last time out: "For me, I need to do a better job," head coach Doc Rivers said afterwards. "I told the guys that. This is not their fault." But the home side needs no more motivation than simply looking at its upcoming competition (Portland, San Antonio, Phoenix and Chicago); suffice it to say, I think it’s all hands on deck this afternoon. Portland is coming off back to back satisfying wins, a 101-82 victory over Cleveland and then a 108-87 victory over Dallas on Thursday. Both teams are loaded with offensive talent and I don’t need to get into individual player matchups, this is a great situational play in my opinion; Portland is already 0-1 SU on the road this year and will get caught “looking ahead” to its game at home vs. Denver tomorrow night. And note, despite the ATS struggles this season, this is in fact a spot that LA has dominated in over the last two years for bettors, a superb 37-24 ATS after allowing 105 points or more. I think LA takes this one personally and pushes the tempo from the outset; all signs point to the CLIPPERS as the sharp move in this one. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-08-14 | Michigan v. Northwestern -1 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -106 | 139 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on Northwestern. Both teams come in struggling, they have a combined seven total wins and four Big Ten victories. Each is still bowl eligible though and I think the home side comes to play today. While Michigan has won two if its last three, note that both of those victories came at home against weak opponents. The home side definitely comes in desperate, it’s off three straight losses, including a 41-point blowout defeat at Iowa last weekend. Michigan actually has a decent defense, but Northwestern’s offense will benefit greatly today in playing in front of the home town crowd, a place where it’s played well at times this year. Neither of these teams is very good, in fact, they are very evenly matched, but from a trend based angle, this is definitely a solid selection; note that Michigan is already 1-2 ATS on the road this year and 5-8 ATS in the same position over the last two; and note that Northwestern is 12-10 ATS in its last 22 vs. conference opponents. All signs point to a one possession game with NORTHWESTERN coming out on top. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-08-14 | Texas-San Antonio +11 v. Rice | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 134 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS SUPER BLOWOUT on UTSA. While I won’t call for an outright win here, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up and look for the Roadrunners to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. I think the red hot Rice Owls have a letdown here, just enough of one for the hungry Roadrunners to take advantage of. UTSA is coming off an embarrassing 34-0 setback at home to UTEP. After three straight losses, Rice has now won five straight, most recently a 31-17 decision on the road against FIU. Desperation breeds motivation though and this also sets up as a revenge game after Rice beat UTSA 27-21 in San Antonio last year. I won’t try to convince you that the Roadrunners are a good team, obviously they aren’t, offensively they’ve been a train wreck of late, but I simply feel this is a great situational play. Defensively though UTSA has been stellar, it’s fourth in the conference in total yards and scoring offense (and that is despite losing 34-0 to UTEP last week, still managing to hold the Miners to 351 yards of total offense). And the Owls aren’t one of the best offensive teams in the conference, they average 31.4 PPG, ranking sixth. Defensively the Owls are sound, ranked fifth in the league, but as I said, I think the conditions are right for a mental lapse this weekend; note that UTSA is a perfect 6-0 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10 points range, while Rice is 0-1 ATS as a home fave in the same price range. Grab as many point as you can in this one. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-03-14 | Utah Jazz v. Los Angeles Clippers -8.5 | Top | 101-107 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the LA Clippers. The Clippers are 2-1 but 0-3 ATS; suffice it to say I think the home side comes out focused and fired up after yesterday’s listless 98-92 setback to visiting Sacramento. The Clippers finished with a season-low 37.5 percent shooting and were just 9 of 31 from 3-point range: “Luckily, we've got 79 chances to get better. In the locker room after the game, I said, 'It finally caught up to us,'" Clippers point guard Chris Paul said half jokingly last night. "We've been in here the past other two games and made it ugly but still won. Tonight it caught up to us." A date vs. the 1-2 Jazz is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked, LA has shot nearly 50 percent in winning the last nine straight in the series. I also think this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Jazz after their one sided beatdown 118-91 win over Phoenix on Saturday. Note that Utah had given up a combined 224 points in its first two games and has allowed an average of 104.8 in the last nine with Los Angeles. I look for a highly motivated and focused CLIPPERS team to take its frustrations out on the lowly Jazz. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-01-14 | Oklahoma State +14 v. Kansas State | Top | 14-48 | Loss | -115 | 143 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma State. What’s happened to the Cowboys? Oklahoma State opened the year at No. 15 and has since fallen to an unranked position in the polls after back to back losses. K-State comes into this contest as No. 9 in the College Football Playoff Rankings. So can OK State rally here, find a way to get the job done and pull off the upset?! I’m not going to go out on a limb and call for the outright upset here, but I do definitely feel that the Cowboys will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I jumped on the line when it first came out at +14, it’s since dropped, but I still do love this selection. The Cowboys have obviously been struggling, but I think there is room to read between the lines; note that OK State’s defense has in fact been better than anticipated. Creating turnovers, something the team excelled at last year in forcing 2.5 per contest, will be crucial for the visitors to keep this one close. If the Cowboys can force two or three, I feel they do in fact have a very legitimate shot at winning this one outright. Obviously it’s not going to be easy, K-State QB Jake Waters is on a big roll right now. But, the Cowboys have some weapons of their own, receiver James Washington is a game-changer. From a motivational standpoint, this is definitely a big game for OK State; obviously an outright victory would be a huge mental boost for the university, but it would also mean that the team would be come bowl eligible with games vs. Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma remaining. I also believe that this sets up as a bit of a “lookahead” spot for the home side, the team is already bowl eligible and still has to play three ranked teams, ALL of which are on the road. Note Okahoma State is a perfect 3-0 ATS the last two years as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while K-State is just 2-4 ATS as a home favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points ranges. Grab as many points as you can, all signs point to a comfortable cover for the COWBOYS. AAA Sports | |||||||
11-01-14 | Florida +13 v. Georgia | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 138 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida. I think the Gators keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door for the comfortable ATS cover. This is a revenge scenario, the Bulldogs have won three straight in the series after last year’s 23-20 victory. The Bulldogs will be without the services of RB Todd Gurley of course, it hasn’t mattered of late though as Georgia has rallied for back-to-back victories behind an opportunistic defense. The Gators are reeling, but I think come to play here today, Florida coach Will Muschamp’s job is on the line and desperation often brings out the best in teams and that will be the case today I feel. “It’s a critical game,” Muschamp said earlier in the week. “It’s an East rival. It’s an SEC rival. It’s a rival of the University of Florida. And it’s very important to our university.” The Gators will have to deal with Bulldogs’ QB Hutson Mason, who has been effecient this year with 10 TD’s and three INT’s. RB Nick Chubb has filled in decently for Gurley, averaging 172.5 yards per game in two starts in replacement. The visitors of course will be going with QB Treon Harris, in three career games he’s 12 of 18 for 263 yards and three TD’s with one INT. Harris will be looking early and often to WR Demarcus Robinson who has a team-high 34 catches, 524 receiving yards and four TDs. One other Gators’ player to keep your eyes on today is DE Alex McCalister, who has five tackles for a loss and a team-high four sacks. Note that Florida is 3-2 the last two seasons following a bye week, while Georgia is 1-5 ATS in its last six after two weeks or more of rest. Grab as many points as you can, play on FLORIDA. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-30-14 | Florida State -5.5 v. Louisville | Top | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 96 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Florida State. I played the game early and got -5.5. It’s since come down to -3.5. Regardless, I still really love this play and look for FSU to punch one into the ATS win column tonight. It appears as if RB Karlos Williams will be available for this game, which is good news for the No. 2 Seminoles as they get ready to face the nation’s best defense. Williams leads the Seminoles with 82 carries, 378 rushing yards and seven TDs and he’s still 100% eligible to play in this one. So will this be a distraction for FSU? Hardly in my opinion. This program is used to this type of thing now after Jameis Winston’s issues last year, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner has had multiple off-field issues, this team isn’t going to be phased whatsoever. In fact, I think it will be a rallying point this week and think Winston could have one of his most productive contests of the year so far. Louisville is a stout defense, it leads the nation in giving up just 245.8 YPG, but I think will have its hands full with Winston and company. FSU is playing for the first time since its thrilling 31-27 win over then No. 5 Notre Dame on October 18th. "We don't have anything to prove to anybody," said Winston, who is third in the country in completion percentage at 70.6. "We've just got to keep playing and hopefully things will go our way. But one thing we are consistently proving is that we are winners." Louisville has some talent on offense as well in WR DeVante Parker and RB Michael Dyer, but I think they’ll falter today against what I think is an underrated Seminoles defensive unit. I’m laying the points on FLORIDA STATE. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-29-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Portland Trail Blazers -8 | Top | 89-106 | Win | 100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Portland Trailblazers. “Revenge” is a powerful motivating factor. Throw in the “opening night” in front of the home town crowd angle and that fact that the leagues leading scorer is sitting this one out with injury for the visiting side and all signs point to an epic one-sided rout in my opinion. The Thunder will have to make some major adjustments to start the year, but the Blazers are fully healthy and ready to go. OKC’s Russell Westbrook certainly has the talent to carry the load, but the Thunder will now become much more one dimensional. With teams being able to double team Westbrook without fear of getting burned by KD, I think he’s going to have some trouble, and especially tonight. KD isn’t the only injured Thunder player though, note that Reggie Jackson is out with an ankle injury, so to is guard Jeremy Lamb; Anthony Morrow, Mitch McGary and Perry Jones are also all out as well. This OKC team is ripe for the picking, LaMarcus Aldridge, Damien Lillard, Nicolas Batum, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez are 100% for the Blazers. Note that Portland also added big man Chris Kaman and veteran guard Steve Blake to bolster a bench which was the leauge’s lowest-scoring last year. In my opinion, this line should be a lot higher, play on PORTLAND. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 190 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Redskins. For a number of different reasons, I like the visitors to keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded. Dallas is 6-1 and is one of the best team’s in the league. Hmm? Even at 6-1, do you feel like the Cowboys are in fact one of the league’s elite? I certainly don’t. RB DeMarco Murray and Tony Romo have been excellent thus far, but I think will finally take a step back here against a determined and hungry Washington team. The league’s top run game has obviously helped the oft-maligned Romo who has an NFL-high 69.2 completion percentage to date. But as I said off the top, I think the Redskins can surprise the home side today, they broke a four-game slide last week with a 19-17 win over Tennesee, backup QB Colt McCoy was inserted in relief of an ineffective Kirk Cousins and was 11 for 13 for 128 yards and a TD. Note, RG III could make an appearance today as well: “I’ve already made the decision. I've said it's going to be Colt," coach Jay Gruden said earlier in the week. "I've said Robert will be the wild card, possibly, if he's ready to go, and that still hasn't been decided yet." This is also a double revenge game after the Cowboys took both divisional contests in 2013. Note that Washington is in fact 8-6 ATS in its last 14 vs. divisional opponents, while Dallas is 0-2 ATS the last two years on MNF and just 8-12 ATS in its last 20 in front of the home town crowd. It’s true that Washington has dropped eight straight to NFC East foes, but streaks (both good and bad), were made to be broken; while I won’t call for an outright upset, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up to the undervalued visiting side; play on WASHINGTON. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-26-14 | Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets -3 | Top | 43-23 | Loss | -100 | 157 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Jets. While they continue to lose, the Jets are looking much better on both sides of the ball and I think can put it all together today and take advantage of a Bills team which is now trending in the opposite direction; when the final whistle sounds, I like New York to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Buffalo comes in injured on the offensive side of the ball and I think that will be too much for it overcome. Buffalo actually ranked second with 144.2 rushing YPG last year, but the club has dropped to 19th in 2014 and the situation got a lot worst with co-starters Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller both going down in last week’s 17-16 home win over the Vikings on Sunday. This is going to put an inordinate amount of pressure on QB Kyle Orton and I like New York to finally take advantage today. After losing 31-0 at San Diego on October 5th and 31-17 to Denver the following week, the Jets took New England down to the wire last week and racked up 423 yards in the process. RB Chris Ivory had 107 rushing yards and a TD and had 98 yards and a second in the most recent meeting with Buffalo, a 37-14 road loss back on November 17th. QB Geno Smith is coming off his best outing of the season, he was 20 of 34 for 225 yards and a TD with zero INT’s. And now Smith has a new target to throw to in Percy Harvin. Note that Buffalo is 0-6 ATS the last two seasons as a road dog of 3 points or less, while New York is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 vs. division opponents. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to the JETS as the savvy move in this one. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-24-14 | South Florida v. Cincinnati -10.5 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 119 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on Cincinnati. Neither of these teams are that good, but I think the home side’s passing offense will prove to be too much for the Bulls in the end and look for it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. USF is 3-4, Cincinnati is 3-3. The Bulls are 2-1 in conference while the Bearcarts are 1-1 in league play. This is a “revenge” game as well for Cinncy though as USF pulled off the 26-20 upset last year. USF is coming off a 38-30 road win over Tulsa last week, it was a huge come from behind effort as it trailed 24-7 at halftime. The Bearcats are coming off a 41-3 road win over SMU last week, a victory which snapped a three-game slide. Offensively the Bulls are averageing just 311 yards per game, QB Mike White has completed only 47.6% of his passes for six TD’s and five INT’s. RB Marlon Mack is the focus of the offense, he has 727 yards and eight major scores so far. Note that four defensive players are questionable or out for the Bulls though. And that’s bad news for the visitors I think today; while Cincinnati’s defense is poor, it’s offense is ranked #38 in scoring. QB Gunner Kiel has completed almost 60% of his passes so far for 19 major scores and 6 INT’s. From a trend based angle, this is definitely a solid play as well, note that the Bearcats are 6-3 ATS in their last nine vs. teams with losing records. I think this one turns into a track meet and the pass-happy home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night; play on CINCINNATI. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-22-14 | Buffalo Sabres v. Anaheim Ducks -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Anaheim Ducks. After losing their season opener, the Ducks have won five straight, most recently a 3-0 victory over St. Louis on Sunday. Goaltender Frederik Anderson had 28 saves vs. a club that scored six goals vs. Arizona a night earlier. Keep your eyes on Anaheim defenseman Sami Vatanen who had two power-play goals for his first two scores of the season, becoming the sixth defenseman in franchise history to do so. Ducks’ captain Ryan Getzlaf had two assists and now leads the team with eight points. Anaheim has continued to excel on the power play, it’s scored six times on 24 opportunities. And all of that spells trouble for the offensively inept Sabres who have been blanked in back to back games, a 1-0 loss to Florida, followed by a 4-0 loss to Boston. Buffalo is now 0 for 22 with the man advantage this year. Not surprisingly, the Sabres have been outscored 22-7 thus far and are being outshot by a NHL-worst 14.3 SPG. The Ducks already hammered the hapless Sabres 5-1 on October 13th, outshooting the team 44-12; I think an even more lop-sided result is in order tonight. The Ducks are rested and don’t play again until Saturday, so they have no reason or excuse to “look ahead” or “past” this team; I’m laying the 1.5 goals for then near pick-em price. Play on ANAHEIM on the PUCK LINE. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-19-14 | New Orleans Saints +3 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 110 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New Orleans Saints. The Lions own the league’s best defensive unit, but I think are going to come back down to Earth today vs. a determined Drew Brees and company; while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. And I think the Saints’ defense comes to play today, Detroit’s offense is stalled right now and I think will once again have its hands full this afternoon. Note that Brees is 4-0 as a starter vs. Detroit, completing 75.2 percent of his passes for an average of 379.3 yards with 14 TDs and one INT for a stellar 133.8 rating. While his 7.2 yards per attempt is his lowest mark in four years this season, note that Brees still ranks second in the NFL in averaging 314.8 YPG, not surprisingly then the Saints come in as the No. 2 offense at 442.8. Detroit amassed just 255 yards of offense last week but would still beat the hapless Vikings 17-3 last Sunday. Situationally, this is also a great play for us as New Orleans is coming off its bye following a momentum and confidence building 37-31 home win over the Bucs on October 5th. While New Orleans will likely be without the services of star TE Jimmy Graham again this week, note that they still put a season high for points and yards with 511 in the win over the Bucs without him as well. So while the Saints defense hasn’t been setting any records this year, there’s no question that it catches a break in facing the anemic Lions unit. Note that Detroit is likely to once again be without the services of star receiver Calvin Johnson because of an ankle injury; also note that RB Reggie Bush is still dealing with ankle injury as well. Note that New Orleans is 2-0 ATS the last two seasons following its bye week, while Detroit is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory over a division rival. I think Brees has one of his most productive games and his defense follows suit; play on the SAINTS. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-12-14 | San Diego Chargers v. Oakland Raiders +8 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 156 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Oakland Raiders. If you are a long time follower or client of mine, you know that I am primarily a situational handicapper which also likes to take advantage of lop-sided trends and numbers. Yesterday I had a play on North Carolina which was 0-5 ATS vs. Notre Dame which was 4-1 ATS; that was a great cover for me. Here is another such situation, this time on the pro gridiron: San Diego is 5-0 ATS while Oakland is 0-4 SU (just 2-2 ATS). With a week off to prepare for this game, I think the home side comes in focused and catches a complacent Chargers team off-guard, ultimately coming away with at least the ATS cover. San Diego comes in banged up, it’s going to have to start its fourth center after Doug Legursky went down with a knee injury in last Sunday’s 31-0 home win over the Jets. Note that the Bolts also lost backup RB Donald Brown to a concussion (starter Ryan Mathews has been out since Week 2). Slowing down red hot Philip Rivers will be top priority for Raiders’ interim head coach Tony Sporano, the Chargers pivot has thrown for an average of 345.8 yards in his last four road games vs. the Raiders. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game today for the home side to help in trying to limit the time that Rivers is on the field, Sporano has already said he’ll make it a point of emphasis for his team which ranks last in the league. Rookie QB Derek Carr will once again be under center, he was an effecient 16 for 25 for 146 yards, one TD and one INT in the London game. Note that San Diego is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven “October” games, while Oakland is 2-0 ATS the last two season following its bye week. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to OAKLAND as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-12-14 | Denver Broncos v. NY Jets +8.5 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -130 | 153 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the New York Jets. The panic button has officially been “hit” in New York, I think the desperate Jets keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This is a classic case of “David vs. Goliath” as Peyton Manning faces a New York defense which is tied with Jacksonville for the second-most TD’s through the air allowed. The Jets have also managed just one pick so far. Manning posted 479 yards in last week’s 41-20 win over Arizona. New York though does have some positives on the defensive side of the ball, as it’s tied with Buffalo for the league’s most sacks and has allowed just 320.8 YPG, including only 83 on the ground. Of course, that turns the one dimensional Bronco offense even more so; note that Denver ranks 29th in the league in rushing with an average of just 79.5. And note that starting RB Montee Ball has now been lost for a few weeks because of a groin injury. Jets’ coach Rex Ryan knows his job is on the line: "You're right, if that's the case and we don't get this thing on the right track, I don't think for a minute I'll be here," he said on a radio show this week. "I know I won't, but I believe this team will right itself and we'll find a way." Embattled QB Geno Smith will once again get the start despite his horrid first half vs. the Chargers (backup Mike Vick wasn’t much better). Note that Smith will definitely benefit from the expected return of receiver Eric Decker who missed last week with a hamstring issue. It’s important to note, already 0-1 ATS this year in games played on “turf”, Manning and company are just 2-7 ATS their last nine in the same position. And note that New York is 7-6 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 10.5 points range. I am not calling for an outright upset, but do expect the JETS to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-11-14 | North Carolina +17 v. Notre Dame | Top | 43-50 | Win | 100 | 108 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on North Carolina. I think UNC can catch Notre Dame a bit complacent here and like it to keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Irish come into this game at 5-0 SU. UNC is just 2-3 and will have to start winning some games in a hurry if it has any shot at becoming bowl eligible. Long time clients and followers know that I am primarily a situational handicapper, but that I also like to exploit lop-sided trends and numbers, expecting these anomolies to “naturally correct” themselves. Therefore, it’s important to note that UNC is 0-5 ATS to open the year, while Notre Dame is 4-1 ATS. UNC’s biggest issue has clearly been on the defensive side, but it catches a break here as the Fighting Irish are far from offensive juggernauts. UNC can put some points on the board, it will need to bring it’s “A” game today though vs. the stingy home side’s defensive unit. This also sets up as a classic “look ahead/letdown” spot for the Irish, who won’t be able to help themselves in thinking about next week’s matchup with top-ranked Florida State; this is definitely a crucial situational factor working on our side today as well. I think UNC does keep this one close, its dual-threat QB Marquise Williams will be a difference maker and while I won’t call for an outright upset, I do clearly believe this is way too many points to be giving up; play on NORTH CAROLINA. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-09-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans +3 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -115 | 70 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Houston Texans. While the outright win isn’t out of the question in this game, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can on what I feel is an undervalued home side. This is a big game for both teams, but obviously Houston will be the hungrier; the Texans are coming off a dreadful 2013/14 season, but with a win tonight can take over sole possession of the AFC South and avoid a fourth consecutive loss in this series. The Texans will once again be leaning heavily on RB Arian Foster who had 157 yards and two TD’s in Sunday’s 20-17 OT loss at Dallas; Foster is second in the league in averaging 101.0 YPG thus far. Note that Foster has been money on the short week of work as well, he’s averaged 5.3 yards per carry while rushing for 343 yards and four TD’s in three “Thursday Night” contests: “It's a huge game for us," Texans’ offensive tackle Duane Brown said last night. "The good thing about the Colts is that we're very familiar with them. Of course you have a different game plan than we've had in years past, but as far as the personnel and things like that we kind of know what to expect. So that makes it a little bit easier, but it's never easy." Indianapolis has won seven straight “Thursday night” games, but I think runs into a buzzsaw today against this talented and revenge minded Texans’ defensive unit. If ever the Colts were going to have a letdown, I think this week qualifies, they’ve been playing at an extremely high level, they’ve outscored their last three opponents 105-47; a quick turn around on the road and a nationally televised divisional contest is asking a lot, even for QB Andrew Luck. Note, the Colts offense has taken a hit as well, as starting guards Hugh Thornton and Jack Mewhort will miss the game with injuries. One other player to keep your eyes on today is the home side’s Andre Johnson who has averaged 158.3 yards while totaling 27 receptions and five TD’s in his last three home games against the Colts. I think the situation favors the home side; play on the TEXANS. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-09-14 | Florida Panthers v. Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE GAME OF THE MONTH on the Tampa Bay Lightning. I think the home side is going to steam roll the visitors and definitely feel the value is in laying the 1.5 goals for the sizeable return. A big reason why is because Steven Stamkos is back and ready to do some damage once again. Of course, Stamkos would miss 45 games after a broken leg in November, but he dominated previous to that and also afterwards. Tampa still made the playoffs even with Stamkos sidelined for most of the year, rookies Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat would pick up the slack. Ryan Callahan came over from the Rangers in the Martin St. Louis deal and is expected to produce after signing a six year, $34.8 million deal in the offseason. Also note that goaltender Ben Bishop is healthy and ready to go, he’d set a franchise record for wins (37), save percentage (.924) and GAA (2.23) last year. And despite a couple of pickups in the offseason, I think it’s going to be another long year for the Panthers who were 29-45-8 in 2013/14. New acquistions include Dave Bolland from TO and 37-year old defenseman Willie Mitchell. Roberto Luongo will be back in net for Florida, Bobby Lu of course can look pretty brilliant at times and rather pedestrian in others. Obviously the additions that the visitors made are nothing to write home about, note that the Panthers finished last in power-play percentage (10.0) and on the penatly kill (76) last season. Also note that Stamkos has dominated the Panthers throughout his career in posting 15 goals and eight assists in his last 13 in the series. All signs point to an epic one-sided rout in my opinion, which leads to a PUCK LINE play on the LIGHTNING. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-05-14 | NY Jets +7.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 0-31 | Loss | -140 | 134 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR on the New York Jets. I jumped on this line when it first hit the board and was able to get 7.5. Most everyone would be able to at least get 7 though. Regardless, I beileve the hungry Jets will keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the backdoor once the final whistle sounds. San Diego is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS so far and I think will come in a little complacent here. If QB Philip Rivers is going to lead his team to a fourth-straight victory, he’ll have to do it by sending the Jets to their longest losing streak in seven years. Note that New York is 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS thus far. The Jets lone victory came in Week 1, a 19-14 effort over the Raiders. Obviously New York is going to be the “hungrier” team in this matchup, its season is on the line today, another loss and the Jets will be starting to plan for next year already. The Jets defense has actually been a bright spot and has kept the team in games so far, the unit will have its hands full today with Philip Rivers who owns a league-best 114.5 QB rating; Rivers is coming off his best start of the year in a 33-14 victory over Jacksonville last Sunday. Note though, Rivers got the job done against one of the worst units in the league and covered up for an anemic run game which will once again be without the services of Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead; I simply can’t see the home side getting away with that this week vs. this capable Jets front line and secondary which allow a league-low 63.3 rushing yards per game and which rank third in total defense at 291.2. This is also a “do or die” game for New York QB Geno Smith as the fan base has grown restless and would welcome the shift to backup Michael Vick; Smith was 17 of 33 for 209 yards and one TD and one INT in last week’s 24-17 loss to Detroit. Coach Rex Ryan is sticking with his man: "Because I believe in him," Ryan said of his beleagured pivot. "I believe that we're going to get it done and I believe that he's going to be one of the main reasons we get it done and get it turned. I don't anticipate us as a team continuing to struggle. I think this team needs a win in the worst way, and I think that will help us more than anything. We have guys that believe in each other and I think, to a man, that our team believes in Geno." The schedule ahead is an absolute beast as well for the visitors, with games vs. Denver and New England on the horizon, a step in the “right” direction starting this week is a necessity. Is a date on the road against lowly Oakland a reason to “look ahead” this week for San Diego? Probably not, but with a couple of cream puffs back to back, I can’t see how it won’t be a bit complacent today, in my opinion the savvy move is in grabbing as many points as you can in this one; play on the JETS. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-05-14 | Arizona Cardinals v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 134 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on the Denver Broncos. Arizona is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS, including having won the last two in a row (both SU and ATS). Denver is 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS. The Broncos have had a week off after falling short in a 26-20 OT setback in Seattle two weeks ago. When taking everything into consideration, in my opinion, one of these clubs is over achieving and one is under performing. Suffice it to say, when the smoke finally clears at the end of this one, I look for the home side to have pulled away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Note that Arizona is also coming off its bye week. Arizona has been getting the job done with a stout defense which has held the opposition to an average of just 15 PPG, but I think it will finally be exposed today vs. a confident, rested and hungry Peyton Manning. In fact, it’s hard to believe that the Cards are on the verge of a 4-0 start to the season as they’ve been playing with backup QB Drew Stanton who has completed only 51.6 percent of his passes. Denver doesn’t run the ball much, which is good as that’s a strength of the Cardinals. The home side finally gets a boost on the defensive side of the ball with the expected return of Danny Trevathan; Trevathan was the team’s leading tackler last season and has missed the first three games with injury. Manning has dominated at Mile High, he’s thrown 55 TD’s to just eight INT’s in 18 regular-season home games while going 16-2 in the procees. The thin air has been the Cardinals nemesis, they are 0-4 in Denver while getting outscored 106-32. Rejoice Bronco’s fans, this is the break out game you’ve been waiting for this year, look for the home side to lay the hammer down; play on DENVER. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-04-14 | Pittsburgh +4.5 v. Virginia | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -103 | 135 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Pittsburgh. Virginia has covered the spread in every game so far this year but I think will finally come up short here vs. the hungry visiting side; while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can in this one. The Cavaliers are in position to make an early claim as division front-runners after an earlier upset of Louisville and close setbacks to No. 1 UCLA and No. 18 BYU. Virginia is 3-2 SU, including 1-0 in the ACC. Pittsburgh is 3-2 and 1-0 as well. But this sets up as a natural letdown/look ahead spot for Virginia with its bye week on the horizon. Pittsburgh is surely the “hungrier” team as well, it’s coming off back to back loss to Iowa and Akron which dampened its 3-0 start. Note that Virginia is hosting its first “night game” since 2012 here; also note that Pittsburgh beat Virgina 14-3 last season. I simply feel that the opportunistic Cavs defense will finally have its hands full today with Pitt RB James Conner; Conner is second in the nation with 791 rushing yards and leads the country with 135 carries. Another big question mark for Virginia is at QB; note, as of writing the team still has Greyson Lambert listed as questionable because of an ankle injury he suffered vs. BYU two weeks ago. Lambert wasn’t used in last week’s victory against Kent State, as sophomore Matt Johns stepped in and did an adequate job (finished 17 of 28 for 227 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s); in my opinion though, “adequate” won’t cut it today vs. Pittsburgh and if Lambert is able to go, I believe his injury will render him far less than 100%. I’m playing PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports | |||||||
10-04-14 | Kent State +24.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 90 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Kent State. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for Northern Illinois and like the winless Golden Flashes to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddmakers are leading us to believe. The Huskies return home after a long three game road trip and a bye week. Kent State is is 0-4 and will definitely be the “hungrier” team in this matchup. NIU was embarressed in its last game as well as Arkansas hammered it 52-14. Kent State’s run game is a weak point on offense, meaning it will have to throw the ball today to have any shot at the outright upset. That actually works in our favor, NIU is pretty good against the rush in allowing just 114 YPG. That means we can expect to see a lot of redshirt sophomore QB Colin Reardon who admittedly has been pretty mediocre to this point; Reardon will need some big plays from his receivers, namely James Brooks; Brooks and company have a big opportunity today though as NIU’s weakness on defense is definitely in the secondary, a unit which has already been beaten deep on several occasions this year. Kent State will have to run every now and then to keep the defense honest, look for Reardon to throw the ball to RB Nick Holley on some screens and dump offs. The Huskies definitely looked bad two weeks ago, QB Drew Hare was constantly under pressure and while he did finish with a decent QB rating, he failed to make any big or significant plays when they were needed. However, the entire team looked out of sorts. The Huskies will try to establish the run early and often, but the Golden Flashes are actually pretty good in stopping it. I’m not calling for the outright win today, but this is way too many points to be giving up in my opinion; all signs point to KENT STATE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-29-14 | New England Patriots v. Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 | Top | 14-41 | Win | 100 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Patriots offense is stagnant and I expect this team to falter on the road in this hostile environment; while the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can with the home side. The Pats defense has been uncharacteristically carrying the load so far this year, but it will now have to deal with the Chiefs starting RB Jamaal Charles. What’s up with Tom Brady and company? The Pats offense has failed to go over 300 yards in two of three games. Not surprisingly then, Brady ranks 30th in the league with a 5.54 yards per attempt and his poor 82.9 passer rating is 23rd. And get this…Brady is just 1 of 13 attempts of 21 yards or longer downfield thus far. How can the Pats be 3 to 3.5 point favorites in this spot?! It can’t be blamed entirely on the veteran though, his supporting cast is pretty weak, top receiver Julian Edelman leads the team in receptions, TE Rob Gronkowski has been a shell of his former self; also note that Brady’s patchwork offensive line has been a seive thus far in giving up seven sacks. The run game has also failed Brady, it’s averaging just 3.5 yards per carry, which ranks near the bottom of the NFL. As mentioned off the top, New England’s offense has definitely picked up the slack, but I think will have its hands full here with a suddently confident and under the radar Chiefs team. QB Alex Smith was 19 for 25 for 186 yards and three TD’s in a 34-15 win at Miami last week. Charles didn’t even play, Knile Davis would go for 132 yards on a career high 32 carries. This game means a lot more to Kansas City as it has to play at San Francisco and then San Diego after this home contest. Note that New England is 7-10 ATS in its last 17 on the road, while KC is already 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year. The situation, the trends and the numbers all point to KANSAS CITY as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-28-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars +15 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 14-33 | Loss | -130 | 157 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH on the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Blake Bortles era has arrived in Jacksonville, I think the rookie can do enough to keep this one competitive and look for his team to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. While it won’t be an easy task, I think this does set up as a letdown/look ahead spot for the home side; after a tough 18-17 loss in Arizona to open the season, San Diego would beat Seattle 30-21 in Week 2 and then would hold on for another upset win in Buffalo last Sunday in a 22-10 victory. Dating back to last season the Chargers have now covered five straight. Jacksonville on the other hand has lost six straight, both SU and ATS since last year. Bortles was inserted into last week’s 44-17 loss at Indianapolis at halftime when his team trailed 30-0 and would finish 14 of 24 for 223 yards and two TD’s, as well as 30 yards on two carries. Let’s face it, Jacksonville is a poor team, it had scored one TD in its last 10 quarters before Bortles was forced into action: “It was definitely good to get some game action before you go into the week of practice," Bortles said afterwards. "So I mean kind of taking it one day at a time, try to learn from everything, every experience, situation you get put in and move on." Not surprisingly, this sets up as a revenge game for the visitors who would fall 24-6 at home to San Diego last year. I played the Chargers last week, so far veteran QB Philip Rivers has been pretty good this year, he has five TD’s, no INT’s and a 74.2 completion percentage over his last two games. The visitors catch a break though in facing a depleted Chargers backfield; already without the services of starting RB Ryan Mathews, San Diego lost Danny Woodhead for the year after he suffered a broken leg in the win over Buffalo. That means that Donald Brown, who had 31 carries for just 62 yards last week, and undrafted rookie Branden Oliver will shoulder the load. Also note that Bortles and the offense also catch a break in not having to face LB Manti Te’o, who leads the team in tackles but who fractured his foot last Sunday. Note that Jacksonville is 3-2 ATS in its last five after a loss vs. a division rival and 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog of 10 points or more. And note that San Diego is 6-7 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite, 0-1 ATS the last two years as a favorite of 10 points or more, just 8-9 ATS its last 17 in front of the home town crowd and a sub-par 6-8 ATS its last 14 vs. teams with losing records. I feel that the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to JACKSONVILLE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-28-14 | Tennessee Titans +7 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 154 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* AFC SOUTH ART OF WAR on the Tennessee Titans. Indianapolis started the year 0-2, but QB Andrew Luck put together arguably the best outing of his career in a 44-17 win over Jacksonville last week, he matched a career-high with four TD’s to go along with 370 yards to help his team avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. Luck has been helped with a strong run game, the Colts have totaled 313 yards on the ground thus far. Conversely, Tennessee looked shell shocked in last week’s 33-7 loss in Cincinnati on Sunday, but note that the club had heard about former kicker Rob Bironas’ death just a few hours before hand. That said, after a nice 26-10 win over Kansas City to open the year, the Titans have been outscored 59-17 in back-to-back defeats. Last week though it was clear that the team was collectively thinking about other things, it committed 11 penalties for 99 yards (note that Tennessee has been flagged 28 times in total this year for 239 yards). QB Jake Locker will be a game time decision, he hurt his wrist last week: "It was encouraging that we got to see Jake to a little bit, but that's what we anticipated," coach Whisenhunt said mid week. "Hopefully, it will progress more, and we'll see what we can do tomorrow and that will determine a lot." If Locker can’t go, it’s next man up in Charlie Whitehurst or sixth round pick Zach Mettenberger. The Titans know they are in tough, but if history is any precedence, the defense has to be liking its chances for a bounceback performance here, Luck has topped 240 yards in just one of his four career starts against Tennessee and has four INT’s to two TD’s in those matchups. Note that the Titans are 6-2 ATS in their last eight after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Indianapolis is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten off a win vs. a division rival. This is a pivotal division matchup, Tennessee’s season is basically on the line here, I think the visitors come to play and keep it close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on the TITANS. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-27-14 | Kent State +21.5 v. Virginia | Top | 13-45 | Loss | -106 | 134 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BEATDOWN on Kent State. Virginia may be off a loss to BYU, but the team has covered each week so far this season and suffice it to say, I believe that streak ends today. I think this sets up as a natural letdown sport for the home side as lowly Kent State comes to town for its final non-conference tilt. The ACC schedule is one littered with much stronger competition, I simply can’t see the Cavaliers not looking ahead this week. When this line opened, I jumped on it at 21.5. It’s since gone closer to 27. Regardless, I still really like this pick and think the Flashes can keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded here. MAC teams have a history of giving Virginia difficulty, you only have to go back to last year when it lost 48-27 to Ball State in Charlottesville as an example. Kent State will be looking to bounce back after two home losses and then an embarrasing 66-0 loss at Ohio State. Offensively the Golden Flashes haven’t been spectacular, but certainly not horrible either, Colin Reardon has 553 yards and five TDs. Defensively the teams runs a 4-2-5, Cover 4 scheme which is led by athletic safety Nate Holley, who is top in the MAC with 13.7 tackles per game. Viriginia’s offense has been pretty good, the rotation of QB’s Greyson Lambert and Matt Johns has been pretty effective; defensively though the Cavs sure looked susceptible last week, they did not register a sack or create a turnover vs. BYU. I think this is a great spot for Kent State to come in under the radar, after the beat down by the Buckeyes, the team had last weekend off to focus and prepare: "Virginia is a very talented football team," said Coach Paul Haynes. "They’ve had a very tough schedule, playing 3 out of 4 ranked opponents and playing them well. So we’ll have a huge challenge this week, but our guys have a great attitude, we went back to a good worth ethic and our guys are looking forward to an ACC opponent." Note that Kent State is in fact 10-5 ATS its last 15 on the road, while Virginia is just 2-7 ATS its last nine as a favorite and a sub-par 7-11 ATS its last 18 in front of the home town crowd. I feel that the situation, the numbers and the trends all point to KENT STATE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-27-14 | Northwestern +10.5 v. Penn State | Top | 29-6 | Win | 100 | 130 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* SUPER BLOWOUT on Northwestern. I think 1-2 Northwestern keeps this one close enough to escape with a comfortable ATS cover. Penn State’s defense is its major strength, but other than that, this is a team with a lot of questions in all other facets and it’s these ineffeciencies which I feel the Wildcats can take advantage of this week. The Wildcats weakness is their run game. The Nittany Lions though will be susceptible to the pass I think, Northwestern senior QB Trevor Siemian will be given the green light today to air it out, so far he’s connected with 13 different receivers on the season, led by Cameraon Dickson, who has seven receptions for 129 yards. Defense is the one area where Penn State has a big advantage, and that’s why this spread is so large. However, that’s the only one; while the Nitanny Lions possess a strong run game, Northwestern is very solid against it in allowing just 139.7 yards per game on average thus far. The Wildcats front seven will be looking to take advantage of a very young Penn State offensive line, which will eleviate some of the pressure off the secondary. However, Northwestern catches a break here as Penn State QB Christian Hackenberg has been all over the map as far as his performance so far this year, he struggled against UMass last week and he’ll have to keep his eyes on DE Dean Lowry who has collected 2.5 sackes on the season; you’ll also want to track Wildcats DE Ifeadi Odengibo, who has two sacks and three forced fumbles. Penn State is vulnerable for a letdown here I think, it has a struggling offensive line and a weak run game and I believe will have its hands full vs. Pat Fitzgerald, who is known for getting his teams to overacheive in these spots. Note that Northwestern is 6-4 ATS its last ten on the road and 4-3 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to 11 points range; and note that Penn State is already 0-1 ATS this year as a favorite of 3.5 to 11 points and just 2-6 ATS in the same position over the last two. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to NORTHWESTERN as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-25-14 | Minnesota Twins v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Detroit Tigers. This is a big game for the Tigers and their ace Max Scherzer, when the smoke does finally clear at the end of this one, I expect the home side to walk away with a convincing victory and feel the value is this contest is in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Detroit wrapped up a playoff spot last night, but is still seeking a fourth consecutive Central title and Scherzer will be looking to make a statement in his final regular-season start: “The goal is to win the division," manager Brad Ausmus said after his team’s 6-1 win over the White Sox. Scherzer (17-5, 3.19 ERA) is in the final year of his contract and could test the free agency market after this season; Scherzer comes in with momentum after giving up one run over seven innings in a 3-2 win over the Royals on Saturday. Note that despite owning a 5.00 ERA in two starts vs. Minnesota this year, Scherzer is 2-0 in those contests and is 8-1 with a very respectable 2.97 ERA in his last 11 outings in this divisional series. Minnesota looks to close out a losing season and will do so without the services of slugger Trevor Plouffe who broke his arm in yesterday’s 2-1 win over Arizona on Wednesday. The visitors counter with confirmed gas can Trevor May (3-5, 8.39 ERA) who was shelled for seven runs over 4 2/3’s innings in his team’s 7-3 loss to the Tribe on Saturday. May has been all over the map with his performances this year, I think he’ll be in for a long day and he’d better be careful of Tigers outfielder JD Martinez who is hitting a whopping .429 over his last 10 games vs. the twins and .500 over his last ten overall. A massive pitching mismatch; a massive offensive mismatch; a massive motviational and situational mismatch; all of these factors collide making the TIGERS on the RUN LINE the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-22-14 | Chicago Bears v. NY Jets | Top | 27-19 | Loss | -120 | 168 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the New York Jets. From a situational stand point, this play is as solid as you could possibly ask for, for a number off different reasons/factors I feel that the home side offers tremendous value in this spot. Let’s start off with the Bears: Chicago lost a heart breaker at home to the Bills in its opener, only to rally in the second half last Sunday night to beat the 49ers 28-20 as a 7.5 point underdog (I had Chicago in that one). The Bears would avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole and have to be feeling pretty good about that obviously. It’s tough playing on the road in the NFL, and it’s tough playing back to back contests away from friendly confines, not to mention two Nationally televised games in a row; I simply feel that it’s asking too much for this team to once again gut out a victory in another hostile environment and it will be especially tough I think against what I feel is a vastly under-rated home side. The Jets come into this game at 1-1 as well, they’d hold on for a 19-14 win over Oakland in Week 1, before letting a lead slip away in a hard-fought 31-24 setback to the Packers last weekend. Taking a closer look at tonight’s starting QB’s, Jay Cutler of Chicago has a 61.6 completion percentage, 14 TDs and three INTs in a 6-1 run on Monday nights. Geno Smith of New York was great in his lone Monday Night start as well, passing for 199 yards and three TDs while also compiling a career best 147.7 passer rating in a 30-28 win over Atlanta on October 7th. There is a possibility that Smith will not have the services of WR Eric Decker who will be a game time decision. However, the injury bug is much worse on the other side of the field, the Bears were unsure if top receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery would even play last week (both did, both are still ailing this week). But defensively is where Chicago really got pummeled, it was already playing without center Roberto Garza and LG Matt Slauson before also losing CB Charles Tillman, safety Chris Conte and tackle Jeremiah Ratliff in last week’s win; if any play tonight, don’t expect to see much production. Another weak point for Chicago was the run game, Matt Forte finished with 21 yards on 12 attempts, which is bad news as New York is giving up a league-low 52.5 yards and 2.8 per attempt. When Cutler is forced to pass and unable to rely on a run game to keep defenses honest is when he’s at his worst, I’m predicting a long night for the oft-maligned pivot who has a reputation of looking brilliant one week and absurdly horrible the next. Chicago looked pretty good on defense last week and it will once again have its hands full with a Jets run unit which ranks first in the NFL in averaging 179 YPG; one player you’ll want to keep your eyes on is RB Chris Ivory who has rushed for 145 yards and two major scores on a 6.3 per attempt average (note that the Bears are giving up a poor 5.4 YPC). Note that Chicago is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog, while the Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven as a home favorite of 3 points or less. There are a plethora of factors working against the visitors, all signs point to NEW YORK as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-21-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 37-19 | Win | 100 | 161 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* SLUG-FEST on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Carolina is 2-0, it would beat Tampa Bay 20-14 on the road, before then beatting Detroit 24-7 last week. After opening Week 1 with a win, the Steelers will be looking to rebound here after a listless 26-6 loss at Baltimore on Thursday; Ben Roethlisberger was 22 of 37 for 217 yards. The Steelers defense will will be looking to take advantage of a Panthers team which is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry, which is down significantly from last season’s 4.2 mark. So why the drop off you ask? A big reason why is because DeAngelo Williams has been out due to a thigh injury, Jonathan Stewart carried the ball 15 times for just 37 yards last week; note that Williams is likely going to play today, but certainly he won’t be at 100%. It’s a daunting task for any team in facing the stout Panthers defense, but the Steelers will hammer and test that front seven, RB Le’Veon Bell has proved to be a bright spot for the team in averaging 5.3 yards per carry and his 304 yards from scrimmage ranks second in the NFL. From a statistical standpoint, it’s important to note that Pittsburgh is 6-5 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Carolina is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests. There was a lot of hype surrounding the upgrades to the Steelers offense in the offseason and so far they haven’t performed, but I think this is the perfect stage. I’m expecting a battle down to the end, and as such, will grab as many points as I can get; play on PITTSBURGH. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-21-14 | Oakland Raiders +16 v. New England Patriots | Top | 9-16 | Win | 100 | 153 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on the Oakland Raiders. It’s do or die for the Raiders, an 0-3 start and they’ll be looking ahead to next season. And unfortunately for them, that’s going to be reality, while I don’t foresee the visitors being able to take this game outright, I do think they’ll make it a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and look for them to sneak in through the back door with the large spread they’ve been afforded on Sunday. After losing their opener to Miami, the Patriots would bounce back with a 30-7 win over the Vikings last Sunday. There are things to be concerned about though if you’re a New England fan, the offense is stagnant, Tom Brady and company would finish with a total of 292 yards, the team was fortunate to get a blocked FG for a TD as well as four INT’s to avoid the 0-2 start to the season. Brady finished with a sub-par 149 yards and ranks 28th in the league in QB rating at 78.8, the lowest of his career. New England is in fact 25th or lower in a number of offensive categories, including yards per game. The Patriots have also been uncharacteristically sloppy, they have 24 infractions accepted against them for a league-high 263 yards so far. I’m not going to sit here and try to convince you that Oakland is a great team that just hasn’t lived up to expectations yet, that’s definitely not the case. But I do think that it’s better than what it’s shown so far. Certainly the Raiders will look to tighten up with their run defense, they gave up 188 yards to Houston last week and will be leaning heavily upon former Pro Bowlers LaMarr Woodley, Justin Tuck and Antonio Smith. The offense looked inept in its first game as rookie Derek Carr had just 158 yards in the Raiders opening loss to the Jets, but looked much better against Houston’s tough defensive unit, finishing with 364 last week. It’s significant to note that Oakland is a perfect 2-0 ATS the last two years as a road underdog of 10 points or more, while New England is 1-5 ATS in the same time frame as a favorite of 10 points or more. Simply too many points to be giving up to this desperate team in my opinion, play on OAKLAND. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-21-14 | Washington Redskins +7 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 106 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* ASSASSIN on the Washington Redskins. The Washington Redskins (1-1) got back on track last week with the insertion of Kirk Cousins and I think they do enough to at least cover the spread in Philadelphia. The Redskins may have lost Robert Griffin in the 41-10 win over Jacksonville in Week 2 but the offense looked even better with backup Kirk Cousins under center. Cousins completed his first 12 passes and finished 22 of 33 for 250 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the woeful Jaguars. Alfred Morris ran for 85 yards, including two scores while Niles Paul had 99 yards to lead the team in receiving. Washington struggled in Week 1 vs. Houston’s dominant defensive play, but had no problems with the inept Jaguars in piling up 485 yards of total offense. The Philadelphia Eagles (2-0) are riding high after a come from behind 30-27 win on Monday night football over Indianapolis. Darren Sproles had seven receptions for 152 yards to go along with a touchdown run. The Eagles became the fourth team in 30 years to win consecutive games in which it trailed in the second half by 14 or more points. There is a lot of hype surrounding the Eagles right now, but I think this is a few too many points for them to lay in this situation; this definitely sets up as a classic letdown spot in my opinion. I am not the only one who thinks RG3’s injury is a blessing in disguise for Washington as Cousins is a far better fit for head coach Jay Gruden’s offense: "He's handled being a backup like a pro,” Gruden remarked of Cousins earlier in the week. "He's waited patiently, and now his time is going to come to really take this thing and run with it." The Redskins come into this contest with double revenge on their minds as well after losing both tilts to their division rivals last year (both SU and ATS). Keep in mind the Eagles are just 4-13 ATS in home games the last two seasons and only 1-3 ATS as home favorites of more than 3.5 points in the same span. Philadelphia will also be working on a short work week after the Monday Night game on the road. I think Washington has a lot to prove here and will play more desperately than a 2-0 Eagles team that has gotten away with some sloppy defensive play over the first two weeks. All signs point to a comfortable cover for WASHINGTON. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-20-14 | North Carolina +3 v. East Carolina | Top | 41-70 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on North Carolina. North Carolina is 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS this year. It’s had a week off after beating SDSU 31-27 as a 14.5 point favorite on September 6th. So with a week off to prepare and focus, I think the visitors will at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door. East Carolina is 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS and I think is primed for a letdown here after last week’s emotional 28-21 outright win over Virginia Tech as a 10 point underdog. This is also a “revenge” scenario for the visitors who would fall 55-31 at home to ECU last year as 12.5 point favorites. So while the Pirates are 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall, I definitely feel this sets up as a natural letdown spot, which is bad news vs. this confident Tar Heels team. UNC entered the season ranked No. 23 in the AP Top 25 and has won its two games by a combined 31 points, but has since dropped out of the national rankings. The offense looks great, the defense needs some work though after giving up 29 and 27 points respectively. But as mentioned, the NC’s offense looks fantastic, it’s posted 87 total points so far behind a very balanced pass/rush attack. Tar Heels QB Marquise Williams has already thrown for 424 yards and four TDs behind a 67.2 percent pass completion. Williams though has also been deadly with his feet, he’s rushed for 115 yards and two major scores on 18 attempts. Pirates’ QB Shane Carden has also been great so far, he has 1,031 yards passing in three games, as well as thrown for seven scoring TD’s while completing 63.3 percent of his throws; that said, I think he’ll be in tough today vs. this revenge minded UNC unit. So not only do I feel this sets up as a letdown spot for ECU after its big upset last week, but I also believe that it’s a “look ahead” spot for it, as well as it won’t be able to help itself in looking ahead to next week’s bye. Conversely, this is an ultra important game for the Tar Heels who are in No. 22 Clemson next week, then Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Miami, Pittsburgh, Duke and NC State to finish the season; in my opinion, this is a must-win contest for the visitors. Play on NORTH CAROLINA. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-20-14 | Virginia v. BYU -14.5 | Top | 33-41 | Loss | -106 | 107 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF THE GAME on BYU. Virginia beat the Cougars last year and comes into this contest filled with confidence after it took #7 ranked UCLA down to the wire and then upset #21 ranked Louisville at home last week. However, for a number of different reasons, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the visitors and will prove that when we dig a little deeper and look at some of Virginia’s numbers a little more closely, that the team is actually getting the job done with “smoke and mirrors.” The Cavaliers opportunistic defensive play has carried the load for an inconsistent offense; I’ll give credit where credit is due, Virginia actually leads the nation with 13 forced turnovers, but as I mentioned, when we dig a little deeper, we find that that number is inflated because of the seven turnover game against FCS Richmond. And it hasn’t been perfect either, LB Henry Coley nearly cost his team the game with two crucial penalties that led to Louisville TD’s last week. Virginia QB Greyson Lambert has thrown three INT’s in as many games, in all the Cavs have given up eight turnovers; note that in two games vs. FBS competition, Lambert has a pedestrian 274 passing yards, a horrible -13 rushing yards and an unremarkable two total TDs. I think Lambert is going to get rocked today, he’s not put any fear into any opposing defense that he’s faced, BYU’s unit is known for its hard hits and I think will rattle the Cavs’ pivot early and often. So not only do I think the Cavs passing game will suffer today, so to will its running game in my opinion; RB Kevin Parks leads Virginia with 173 yards on 52 attempts and one TD. Conversely, the home side’s run game is definitely something to be feared, Taysom Hill has 356 yards on 62 carries and six TD’s while Jamaal Williams (in just two games), has 228 yards and two TD’s. When the Cavs run game fails, we can expect Lambert to be forced into throwing when he doesn’t want to, which is bad news for him as BYU has given up an average of just 258.3 YPG through the air. I think I’ve proven so far that Virginia has been a little “lucky” this year, especially when its numbers are put under the microscope, so suffice it to say, I think that “luck” runs out today. BYU plays with revenge; the Cougars clearly have the better offensive and defensive units as well. BYU also definitely gets the nod in the Special Teams department; note that Cougar punter Scott Arellano is one of the best in the country, he’s averaging 43.3 yards per kick, and five of them have already landed inside the 20 yard line. This is a deadly weapon for BYU, combined with a superior defense and a talented offense, I think Virginia is going to be overwhelmed in this game. BYU is going to pound the ball on the ground, it has a stable of bruising backs which is going to wear down Virginia’s tough front seven; it’s on the backend however which the Cavs are weak, Hill is in line for a productive day. Rewind to last year’s game, a contest which was delayed because of a down pour, where Hill would throw below 35% in his first contest with a new offense. Fast forward to Saturday, Hill now has a ton of experience and his offense is running like a well-oiled machine. While I do in fact think Virginia is better than it was last year as well, I believe this is a bad spot for it, look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on BYU. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-14-14 | Chicago Bears +7.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 161 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* ART OF WAR on the Chicago Bears. Chicago comes into this game down a few pieces, but I think in the end can keep this one close enough to at the very least sneak in through the back door once the final whistle sounds. Chicago suffered a bad beat at home in a 23-20 OT loss to the Bills last week and will be desperate to avoid an 0-2 start to the season; also note that there will be added incentive for a big effort here today as Chicago begins a stretch with six of its next eight away from friendly confines: “It's hard to win on the road in this league, so you want to start off the season with a win at home," said Bears’ RB Matt Forte afterwards. "It's just as simple as taking care of the ball a little better, and in the red zone scoring more points when we get down there." As mentioned off the top, Chicago may have to deal with the absence of receivers Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery. However, both are listed as game time decisions, each got in some minor work in Friday’s practice. Regardless, the Bears are still dangerous on the offensive side of the ball with the likes of receiver Santonio Holmes, TE Martellus Bennett and the ever dangerous Forte. And note, San Francisco comes into this contest with injuries on the defensive side of the ball as CB’s Tramaine Brock and Chris Culliver are out indefinitely after ailments suffered in last week’s win. Cutler though will clearly need to be careful with the ball, all he has to do is look at Tony Romo’s three INT’s last week; Culter though looked pretty solid in last Sunday’s loss, while he had two INT’s, he’d finish with 349 yards and two TD’s. Defensively the Bears know they have to be better: "You know San Fran is going to come out and run some of that zone-read," Chicago DE Willie Young said earlier in the week. "I wouldn't be surprised if we get that for the rest of the year. That's not just singling us out. It's across the league. Everybody's buying stock in that particular play so we're just going to have to be sound for stopping that zone read." From a situational stand point, could this be a “look ahead” spot for San Francisco? Perhaps, it’s definitely worth noting that the 49ers hit the road for their first divisional contest of the year in Arizona against a 1-0 Cardinals team which is favored in New York today. I won’t call for the outright upset, but do think that all of the strong situational and motivational factors I listed above are definitely working in favor of the visitors today, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on CHICAGO. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-14-14 | Jacksonville Jaguars v. Washington Redskins -5.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 133 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on the Washington Redskins. It’s only Week 2, but this has to be considered an almost a do-or-die game for the Redskins. A loss to the lowly Jaguars and an 0-2 record would be devastating and as such, I think it will be all hands on deck in the Nation’s capital and look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Jacksonville looked decent in jumping out to an early 17-0 lead in Philadelphia but would then characteristically fall apart and ultimately get crushed 34-17. Washington didn’t look much better, but drew a tough opening game on the road with an equally as determined Houston team which would win win 17-6 in front of the home town crowd. Jacksonville comes in with some injury issues as well as top WR’s Marquise Lee and Cecil Shorts III are limited or unable to go with hamstring problems. There were a lot of expectations for the Redskins last year, but QB Robert Griffin III would take a major step back and the team would finish 3-13 SU, including losing its final eight in a row. It wasn’t all doom and gloom for Griffin and Co. last week though, the unit would generate 372 total yards; note that Griffin himself went 29 of 37 overall. The run unit looked great too and will look to take advantage of the Jaguars suspect line; note that Alfred Morris and Roy Helu would finish with a respectable 137 yards on 18 carries. I think Griffin can bounce back here, Houston’s front 7 is dangerous, while the Jags showed some life in the first half last week, the unit looked inept in the second. Conversely, I think Jags’ QB Chad Henne will have his hands full today with Washignton’s dynamic pass-rushing duo in Ryan Kerrigan and Brian Orakpo. Ultimately, I think WASHINGTON can come up with enough big plays like the Eagles did last week and look for the home side to take care of business. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-13-14 | USC v. Boston College +20 | Top | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 143 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* PLATINUM CLUB on Boston College. Many different factors collide for the home side here, I look for Boston College to keep this one close enough to come away with the comfortable ATS cover. USC has won two straight, both SU and ATS but I think will come in a bit complacent here, leaving the back door open for the home side to sneak through. The Trojans are coming off an emotional win at Stanford and I think the Eagles and coach Steve Addazio can take advantage of this letdown spot and keep it much more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Note that combined with this non-conference road game, that USC won’t be able to help itself in looking ahead to its bye next week, and then its important game at home vs. Oregon State on the 27th. I think the Trojans will be in for a bit of a surprise here, BC has a potent rush attack and will be able to control the ball for stretches while on offense; in fact, QB Tyler Murphy has been the team’s leading rusher with 210 yards and two TD’s in two games. Murphy will be a hand full today, he’s 27 of 52 for 307 yards so far and averages 7.2 yards per carry. USC looked great in its series opening win vs. a discombobulated Fresno State team, but I think will have difficulties in moving the ball so proficiently vs. this more sound Eagles defensive unit. Note that USC is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite, while BC is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 in front of the home town crowd. The situation, the numbers and the trends all point to BOSTON COLLEGE as the sharp wager in this one. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-13-14 | UCLA -7 v. Texas | Top | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* BAIL-OUT on UCLA. This game is being played in Texas, but in a neutral location, I think the “vistors” have a big opportunity to shake off a somewhat lacklustre start and take advantage of this discombobulated Longhorns team. Texas is simply in free fall, coach Charlie Strong must wonder what the heck he got himself into after 34-point losses at home. A big reason why, starting QB David Ash is now out indefinitely with a concussion and so far backup Tyrone Swoops has been extremely inconsistent; it’s hardly been all Swoopes fault though as he is playing behind a severely depleted line. Those offensive line issues aren’t going to magically resolve themselves and its a point of weakness that the Bruins can attack. UCLA has been anything but impressive year as it has won two, one-possession games over Memphis and Virginia. The Bruins secondary has a big opportunity to redeem itself vs. the Longhorns backup this weekend. So while UCLA has looked pretty mediocre so far, there’s no question in my mind that Texas’ issues are much deeper. Note that UCLA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten non-conference games, while Texas is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as an underdog; play on UCLA. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-08-14 | NY Giants v. Detroit Lions -4.5 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 203 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* MNF GAME OF THE MONTH on the Detroit Lions. I think the home side and new coach Jim Caldwell find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Giants would open 2013/14 by going an NFL-worst 0-6 out of the gates, but then would go 7-3 the rest of the way. It’s a little surprising to me that New York recovered the way it did, especially when you dig a little deeper and take a look at some of the numbers, the Giants finished 28th in the league in scoring and had an NFL-high 44 turnovers. New York would bring in former Green Bay assistant Ben McAdoo at offensive coordinator, his job is to instal the up-tempo West Coast offense, something that veteran QB Eli Manning had difficulties with in the preseason: Don't get me wrong, we're ready for Week 1," Manning explained over the weekend. "But I think as a season goes on, you're always looking to improve, whether you've been in a system for 10 years or whether you have young guys and need guys to step up or you have new players, there's always room for improvement." That certainly doesn’t sound like a person that is 100% confident with what is going on. Detroit’s major issue the last few years has been consistency; both sides of the football are loaded with talent, but something has gone wrong as the group has severely under-performed. That said, Caldwell adopts a team which ranked third in the NFL in passing yards last season; Caldwell has been brought in to properly harness the talents of oft-maligned pivot Matt Stafford: “You can tell he has worked at it even during the summer," Caldwell said of his QB. "In every facet, I can see improvement. Footwork, accuracy, timing, command of the offense, all of those things. So now we get a chance to see if he can put it all together." To me, that sounds like a real assessment, Caldwell isn’t just blowing smoke up the media’s butts for a good soundbite in my opinion. Stafford’s favorite target will once again be star receiver Calvin Johnson, but will also welcome ex Seattle receiver Golden Tate. While New York did make some upgrades along its atrocious offensive line, I think the unit will have its hands full with Detroit’s opportunistic line and secondary; and that’s bad news for the declining Manning who again led the league in turnovers last year (and note that the Giants run game put up the worst numbers for the franchise in almost 70 years). Unfortunately for Manning and his patchwork run unit, they’ll once again be behind a poor offensive line; note that veteran Chris Snee retired in July, while guard Geoff Schwartz went down with a dislocated toe. New York also got hit on the defensive side of the ball when MLB Jon Beason was injured in OTAs. That’s bad news for the visitors, Stafford is coming off his third straight season of more than 4,500 yards passing and can turn to an electric run game which is led by Reggie Bush who had 1,006 yards on the ground in 2013. While the Giants have taken the last three meetings between the teams (2007, 2010 and last year), I think the conditions are finally right for Stafford and look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover; play on DETROIT. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-07-14 | Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 180 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos. Peyton Manning came up short against his old team last year but I think the prolific pivot will get his revenge tonight and guide the home side to a convincing victory once the final whistle sounds. Since being let go by the Colts, Manning has dominated in Denver, he’s led his team to back-to-back 13 win seasons and last year he’d set an NFL record with 55 TD passes and 5,477 yards. For the most part the Broncos rolled through the 2013 regular season, but their first loss came on Manning’s first visit to Indianapolis as an opponent, a 39-33 setback on October 20th. Both teams comes in with having to deal with some off-field non-sense, Denver will have to overcome the absence of Wes Welker for four games due to violating the league’s drug policy, while the Colts issues’ lie with owner Jim Irsay and his suspension due to a DWI; we’ll call this area a “wash” then. Manning still has plenty of weapons to utilize, including Emmanuel Sanders, Demaryius Thomas and TD Julius Thomas. The Colts are coming off back-to-back 11 win seasons under the guidance of Andrew Luck who is going to have his hands full I think in this nationally televised contest, the Broncos upgraded their defense significantly in the offseason by acquiring DB’s Aqib Talib and TJ Ward as well as lineman DeMarcus Ware. After the way the Broncos lost in the Super Bowl, do you think the home side has something to prove tonight? You’d better believe it:”"Season opener, it doesn't get much bigger than this except for the postseason," Manning said. "I've always said that opening day is a playoff-type atmosphere." I like Manning to outduel his counterpart tonight; play on DENVER. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-06-14 | USC v. Stanford -3 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -115 | 128 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* BLOCKBUSTER on Stanford. I had a big play on USC last week and it would pull away down the stretch for a convincing 52-13 win over Fresno State. Suffice it to say, I think the Trojan’s will have their hands full today though with this deep and well rested Stanford team and look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is a big game, the winner takes and early edge in the Pac-12 standings and the inaugural College Football Playoff race. “Revenge” definitely comes into play here as well, USC held off the Cardinal 20-17 at home last season as a 3.5 point underdog. Sure the Trojans looked good at home vs. Fresno State, but hitting the road for a divisional contest next time out is a tall task I believe, especially considering that Stanford is 13-1 SU at home vs. ranked opponents over the last five years. This is also a great situational play because Stanford was able to rest almost all of its starters in the second half of its 45-0 destruction of UC Davis. Cardinal QB Kevin Hogan will certainly be motivated and focused today, he had the worst game of his career in the loss to USC last year, he threw two critical INTs in the fourth quarter and was just 14 of 25 for 127 yards overall. No doubt Hogan was loving the performance of Ty Montgomery last week, who returned his first career punt for a TD while also catching five passes for 77 and another score. Both teams looked pretty good defensively vs. the weaker competition, we’ll call this area a “wash.” So while this contest is obviously crucial for both sides, I simply feel it means more to Stanford: as mentioned off the top, there is the revenge factor which must be taken into consideration, but also note that with road games at Oregon, UCLA and Arizona State coming up, this early divisional home contest almost becomes a “must win” scenario for the Cardinal. In my opinion, all signs point to STANFORD as the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
09-01-14 | Miami (Fla) +2.5 v. Louisville | Top | 13-31 | Loss | -105 | 1181 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* “ASSASSIN” on Miami. Here’s a great opportunity for Miami to avenge last season’s 36-9 setback in the 2013 Russell Athletic Bowl. Miami gets its shot in the opening game of the season against a Louisville team making its debut in the ACC. Note that star QB Teddy Bridgewater, coach Charlie Strong and playmaker Marcus Smith are all gone for the Cardinals. While the Cardinals still possess a strong defensive unit, they’re going to be asked to do too much today vs. a revenge minded Hurricanes team which has some scary good offensive weapons in Stacy Coley and Duke Johnson, who I believe will be difference makers in the outcome of this contest. As primarily a situational handicapper, these are the types of gems I always keep my eyes open for and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can; play on MIAMI. AAA Sports | |||||||
08-30-14 | Clemson v. Georgia -9 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 1131 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on Georgia. As a situational handicapper, “revenge” is a big factor I take into account when studying College Football opportunties and there’s no question that this selection falls into that category. When you throw in the fact that Clemson is without perhaps the best offensive player in the league from 2013, I think that the writing is on the wall and look for Georgia to avenge last season’s thriller. The Tigers lost Tajh Boyd to the NFL, meaning Cole Stoudt will be making his first career start in this game. Stoudt has experience with the offense, but this is an entirely different situation with all of the expectations now heaped on his shoulders and he’s going to have a hell of a time playing in such a hostile environment. Clemson was unable to slow down RB Todd Gurley last year, who ran for 154 yards against it. With so much pressure on the defensive unit to carry the load, I’m predicting a classic letdown here. Georgia lost by a heart-breaking three-point margin last season, 38-35, but will benefit greatly here in playing in friendly confines. While Georgia will also be starting a new QB, overall the unit has had much less turnover and I don’t expect much of a drop off. Note that beyond Boyd, the Tigers will also be looking to replace playmakers Sammy Watkins, who was their second-best receiver, Martavius Bryand and leading rusher Roderick McDowell. The Bulldgos also return almost their entire defensive unit. I’m expecting GEORGIA to pull away down the stretch; lay the points. AAA Sports | |||||||
08-28-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Oakland Raiders +5.5 | Top | 31-41 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* ATS BLOWOUT on the Oakland Raiders. Week 4 of the preseason is considered to be the “trickiest” one of all to handicap, however there’s no question which team will be more motivated here; all signs point to a comfortable cover for the home side. It’s safe to say that coach Pete Carrol is happy with what he’s seen out of the ‘Hawks first team offense over the last two games, two weeks ago Russell Wilson and company racked up 260 yards and 24 points in the first half vs. the Chargers, before then gaining 250 yards while scoring 31 points vs. Chicago last week. Starters for the visitors will see very little time (if any) today, meaning that we have a clear opportunity to take advantage of as the Raiders are still working out some serious issues with their first units on both sides of the ball. There is a legitimate QB battle going on in Oakland for the No. 1 spot as Matt Schaub and Derek Carr will be looking to impress in an effort to seal the deal. I don’t think we need to overanalyze this one, I expect the defending champs to simply go through the motions today and look for the hungry and determined home side to ride its talent to at least the cover; play on the RAIDERS. AAA Sports | |||||||
08-28-14 | Tulane +4 v. Tulsa | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 1086 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* EARLY AAC LINE-MOVER SPECIAL on Tulane. I am a situational handicapper at heart. When it comes to ATS sports and O/U’s, I mainly look at past statistics and numbers to base my selections, rarley do individual player match-ups play a role in my process (unless of course it involves a star player like Peyton Manning or Tom Brady etc). Tulsa has not gotten much better over the offseason, while Tulane comes into the 2014/15 campaign filled with confidence after its best effort in the last decade. The Green Wave had lost eight straight to the Golden Hurricane, both SU and ATS until they finally came out on top with the 14-7 victory as 3-point underdogs last year. It’s been a long hard road for Tulane, from 2003 to 2012 it won just a total of 33 games, an average of justt 3.3 wins per season during the 10-year span. Things changed when Curtis Johnson took over head coaching duties. Johnson had been the New Orleans Saints WR coach for six years before taking over in 2012. The Green Wave won just two games that season before Johnson would then lead them to a Bowl game for the first time in a decade last year. It’s true that Tulane clinched a bowl bid early and went just 1-4 down the stretch, but note that three of those came by a total of just 10 points. But with winning comes confidence, and also money; the Green Wave have an entirely new stadium ready to go this year. It will be a difficult switch from the Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference, but Tulane catches a break in facing a familiar face in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane also come over from Conference USA. Tulsa dominated the conference for the better part of a decade before finally coming back down to Earth in 2013/14, finishing just 3-9. The biggest difference was clearly on offense, finishing No. 102 in the nation with just 21.1 points per game, six of its nine losses by 17 or more points. Tulsa is now in full rebuilding mode, it has a ton of new faces on both sides of the ball, several freshmen and sophomores will be playing a lot of minutes. Tulane is focused and has an identity, it played tough defense last year and while it will surely have its hands full in moving to the new conference, this first game sets up beautifully for it. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. AAA Sports | |||||||
08-26-14 | Chicago Cubs v. Cincinnati Reds -1.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Cincinnati Reds. I think this is a good spot to pull the trigger on a strategic “run line” selection and believe that the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return. The struggling home side turns to ace Johnny Cueto (15-7, 2.20 ERA) to get it back on track; Cueto (15-7, 2.20 ERA) will be hungry here, he had his five-start win streak snapped in his team’s 7-3 loss at St. Louis last week, the hard-throwing right-hander was shelled for five runs off a season high-tying seven hits over just five innings of work. A date at home is just what the doctor ordered for Cueto to get untracked though, he’s posted a very respectable 1.74 ERA over a six-start win streak in Cincinnati. And while past success guarantees nothing in the future, note that Cueto has dominated the Cubbies throughout his career in going a perfect 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA in his last seven vs. them. Cueto’s team will be looking to build off its 10 hit peformance in Sunday’s 5-3 win over Atlanta on Sunday, which is bad news for inconsistent Chicago starter Travis Wood (7-11, 4.91 ERA); Wood has been the very definition of a “gas can” of late, in his last 12 starts he’s 0-6 with a ballooned 5.45 ERA. And unforutnatley for Wood, he can’t be looking forward to seeing Cincinnati, he’s 1-5 with a pedestrian 3.68 ERA in eight career starts vs. it. The Cubs are one of the worst on the road they’re just 26-39 away from friendly confines, while of course the Reds for the most part have been successful in front of the home town crowd in 2014, coming into this contest at 34-31 in Cincinnati. I think Chicago comes in complacent, it’s coming off a very satisfying three game sweep at home over the Orioles, while the Reds are fighting for their playoff lives; play on the REDS on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports | |||||||
08-11-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Seattle Mariners -1.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 115 | 26 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* RUN-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Seattle Mariners. As a situational handicapper, these are exactly the types of games that I’m constantly looking to take advantage of, for a number of different reasons I feel that the home side is well worth laying the 1.5 runs for the small return in this particular matchup. Toronto just took two of three from the Tigers at home, including yesterday’s 6-5, 19-inning win, the longest game in franchise history. Immediately following the game the weary club boarded a plane for the West Coast, where it must play a late PST game: game time is at 10:10 PST, which is 1:10 AM EST. This is simply a horrible spot for Toronto and a beautiful one for Felix Hernandez (12-3, 1.97 ERA) and the Seattle Mariners. Hernandez is on fire, he’s gone 15 straight starts of at least seven innings or more with two runs or fewer; note that Hernandez is 8-2 with a 1.42 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and .168 opponents’ batting average in that span. Most recently Hernandez beat the Braves 4-2, giving up a run and four hits while striking out eight over eight frames. While Hernandez has struggled against the Jays in the past, I think that only adds fire and motivation for tonight’s game. It all falls on Toronto starter Drew Hutchinson (8-9, 4.39 ERA) who will have pressure to throw into the latter frames as his bullpen is drained after last night’s marathon. As good as “Hutch” has been, I’m giving Hernandez the big nod on the mound and the M’s the big advantage at the plate, those two deciding factors make the sharp play in this matchup the home side on the RUN-LINE. AAA Sports | |||||||
06-30-14 | Colorado Rockies v. Washington Nationals -1.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 107 | 22 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Washington Nationals. The clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the small return here. Good news for Nats fans (and us!), is the expected return of slugger Bryce Harper to the Washington lineup. Harper has recovered from a broken left thumb by hitting three home runs in a rehab game at Double-A Harrisburg on Saturday, the all-star sat out Sunday, which is signalling his return to action tonight. The home side sends Jordan Zimmermann (5-4, 2.95 ERA) to the mound; Zimmermann is 2-2 with a minuscule 1.18 ERA in five outings this month, most recently giving up two runs, while striking out nine over six innings in his latest outing on Tuesday in Milwaukee. The Nationals come in with plenty of momentum as well after sweeping a Saturday doubleheader vs. the Cubbies and also come in rested after having Sunday off. Note that Zimmermann is 4-0 with a very respectable 1.42 ERA in six career starts vs. Colorado, including 2-0 with a minute 0.42 record in three matchups in front of the home town crowd. The Rockies come to town having won just twice in their last 13 games, but off a 10-4 victory over Milwaukee last night; suffice it to say, I expect an immediate return to mediocrity this evening. The visitors counter with Yohan Flande (0-0, 7.20 ERA) who will make his second major league start; note that Flande gave up four runs, six hits and a walk over five frames in a 9-6 loss to the Cards on Wednesday. A plehtora of different factors have collided, making the Nationals on the RUN-LINE the sharp wager in this contest. AAA Sports | |||||||
06-29-14 | Cleveland Indians v. Seattle Mariners -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 115 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Seattle Mariners. The clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the “pick-em” price. Seattle will be eager to get untracked after yesterday’s listless 5-0 loss to the Indians in which Kyle Seager managed only a single. Note though that the M’s had totaled 27 runs while hitting .314 with eight home runs over their previous four games. Seattle has to be liking its chances for a bounce back by sending ace Felix Hernandez (9-2, 2.24 ERA) to the hill; Hernandez has gone 5-1 with a 1.48 ERA in his last eight starts and has set a franchise record over that stretch for consecutive starts of at least seven frames while giving up two earned runs or less. It comes as no surprise to learn that Hernandez ranks among the league’s leaders in several categories, including ERA, strikeouts, and innings. Most recently “The King” gave up two runs and six hits over seven innings in his team’s 12-3 win over Boston on Monday. Note that Hernandez is 6-5 with a respectable 3.25 ERA in 14 career starts vs. the Tribe, but he’s 3-0 with a tiny 1.47 ERA in five meetings vs. them at Safeco. The visitors counter with TJ House (0-1, 4.88 ERA) who is filling in for Justin Masterson; this will be House’s first MLB appearance since June 14th when he gave up two runs over 5 1/3’s innings, not factoring into a 3-2 win at Boston. House is 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA in his five starts. The combination of looking to atone for yesterday’s poor overall effort and having Hernandez on the hill makes the value play the Mariners on the RUN LINE. AAA Sports | |||||||
06-26-14 | Toronto Argonauts -5 v. Winnipeg Blue Bombers | Top | 21-45 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* “SUPER ATS BLOWOUT” on the Toronto Argonauts. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers secondary is down men to start the season and ultimately I believe this factor will prove to be the difference in the outcome of this contest. Winnipeg made a lot of changes between seasons; so too did the Argos. The major difference for both teams though is that Toronto’s offense is pretty much the same dynamic unit from last year.: “Our expectations are pretty high, we've got a lot of players returning," said Argonauts’ QB Ricky Ray. Defensively Toronto needs some work, but catches a break here vs. Winnipeg. As mentioned off the top, the Blue Bombers have some holes to fill, today’s depth chart includes six players at middle linebacker, where they lost Henoc Muamba to the NFL. The Bombers start rookie QB Drew Willy, who is clearly outmatched by Ray; Ray has thrown for 3.780 completed passes for 251 TD’s and three Grey Cups over 11 seasons. Willy on the other hand has completed just 101 passes for nine TD’s and has only four starts while a backup in Regina. Toronto was 11-7 last year and fell to Hamilton in the East final. Winnipeg was 3-15 and lost to Toronto all three times last season. This isn’t the NFL, and I’m not going to read too much into the revenge factor today, the Blue Bombers still have more questions than answers and I look for Ray and company to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Play on TORONTO. AAA Sports | |||||||
06-12-14 | Atlanta Braves -1.5 v. Colorado Rockies | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Atlanta Braves. I played the Braves yesterday and unforutnately Julio Teheran was unable to deliver the goods. I think the visitors can bounce back today though and am expecting a convincing effort. Atlanta sends Ervin Santana (5-2, 3.69 ERA) to the hill; Santana started the season strong, fell off for a bit, but is coming off a resurgent outing, giving up one unearned run over seven innings, getting saddled with a no-decision when his team lost 4-3 in 11 innings in Arizona on Saturday. Santana is 2-0 with a 5.59 ERA in three career starts vs. Colorado. The Rockies haven’t won back to back games in over three weeks, they’ve lost 13 of 16 and have been hit hard by the injury bug. And that’s bad news for Jhoulys Chacin (0-4, 5.35 ERA) who gave up three runs over seven innings in his team’s eventual 5-4 win over the Dodgers in 10 frames in his last start. Note that Chacin has been particularly inept vs. Atlanta in three career starts, he’s 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA. I like the Braves to bounce back in this matchup and will lay the 1.5 runs for the healthy return. Play on Atlanta “run line”. AAA Sports | |||||||
06-09-14 | Seattle Mariners v. Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Tampa Bay Rays. Tampa Bay is in a huge hole in the AL East, but with its ace coming to the mound, I think the struggling Rays are going to win big in this favorable pitching match-up. Mariners’ ace Felix Hernandez struck out 15 in yesterday’s 5-0 win. As good as they’ve been, both at the plate and on the mound, I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the Mariners, especially facing a determined David Price (4-5, 4.03 ERA) who is 1-0 with a very respectable 2.81 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in two career starts vs. them. The visitors counter with Erasmo Ramirez (1-4, 6.82 ERA) who has been the very definition of a “gas can’ since returning from Triple-A Tacoma, most recently giving up five runs and eight hits over three innings in his team’s eventual 7-5 win in Atlanta (note that Ramirez is allowing opponents a .304 average). The clear talent discrepancy on the mound, coupled with the desperation that Tampa will be playing with, in my opinion abolustely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-26-14 | Indiana Pacers +6.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 90-102 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* “EASTERN CONFERENCE FINALS GAME OF THE YEAR” on the Indiana Pacers. AAA Sports Has: +6.5 Worst Case Scenario Line: +6 So far I’m a perfect 3-0 in this series. I had the Pacers in Game 1, the “under” in Game 2 and the Heat in Game 3. With its back against the wall, I look for Indiana to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with what I believe to be a healthy amount of points that it’s been afforded. Remember, the Pacers took the Heat to 7 games last year and have won in Miami each of the last two postseasons. This is a do or die game for Indiana, a 3-1 deficit would be just too big of a hole to climb out of in my opinion. Momentum, motivational and situational factors and many other things have to be taken into account from game to game in the postseason. During the regular season, I primarily base my selections more on numbers and lopsided trends and statistics, but in the Playoffs, it’s a much more fluid process for myself. Indiana jumped out to a huge lead in Game 3, but would slow its attack and ultimately flail horribly down the stretch; I do firmly believe it’ll be much sharper today (note that Indiana had 19 turnovers which led to 26 Heat points): “The little brother (his team the Pacers) spends his whole life getting beat up by the big brother, getting beaten in sports, sporting events, 1-on-1 basketball and what-not," Indiana coach Frank Vogel assessed yesterday. "All those years of getting beat up builds him up to the point where he ultimately takes on the big brother." Note that the Pacers have actually led for 99 of the 144 minutes played so far in this series which equates to about 69 percent of the time. Miami could easily be in a 3-0 hole at this point but has used some epic rallying to save itself in each of its two victories. I expect another nail-biter and am grabbing as many points as I can. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-24-14 | Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 87-99 | Win | 100 | 71 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Miami Heat. AAA Sports Has: -7 Worst Case Scenario Line: -7 After getting blown out in Game 1, the Heat fought hard in Game 2 and in the final few minutes would pull away for the comfortable ATS cover. LeBron James and company “found their groove” and I look for that momentum at the end to be carried over here as I expect the home side to jump out to an early lead to and to never look back. Tied 1-1 and going back home for Game 3, I believe the pressure is on the Heat tonight. Note that Miami big man Greg Oden has been cleared to play: "If coach needs me, I'm ready to play," Oden said yesterday. "I'm definitely ready whenever he needs me." Miami is fully aware that the Pacers have won five straight away from friendly confines: “I don't know if the home court really matters right now in the playoffs," Heat coach Eric Spoelstra assessed last night. "It's more about your collective disposition, and you're imposing that identity on the other team. I think either team could win home or away." Note that the Heat are 5-0 at home in the playoffs this year, winning by an average of 10 points per game and shooting almost 50 percent from the field collectively: “Both teams can win on each other's floor. We've proven that the last couple years," James said. "We have to protect our home, but we can't go out there saying that just because we're back home we get automatic wins. We've got to play." I couldn’t agree more; play on the Heat. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-15-14 | Oklahoma City Thunder v. Los Angeles Clippers -4.5 | Top | 104-98 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the LA Clippers. AAA Sports Has: -4.5 Worst Case Scenario Line: -5 I believe we’re going to a Game 7 and expect the Clippers to put forth their best overall effort of this series. I took the Clippers in Game 1, the “under” in Game 2, the Thunder in Game 3 and then the “under” in both Game’s 4 and 5. LA actually had Game 5 in the bag before an unreal set of blunders committed by the usually sound Chris Paul; LA would blow a 13-point lead with just over four minutes to play. So does Paul dwell on the major “brain-fart”, or does the blunder galvanize him to lead his team to redemption in Game 6? I believe the latter. Paul’s teammates quickly came to his defense and will be unbelievably charged today to help their brother get some vindication tonight. Did you watch Game 5? Do you think Paul fouled the Thunder’s Russell Westbrook on that final 3-point shot? Pretty damn ticky-tacky in my opinion. Remember, OKC just blew a 16-point lead with nine minutes left in Game 4 at the Staples Center. These teams are now even. Ultimately though I believe the difference will be two factors: I believe the team rallies around Paul and that determination combined with home floor advantage leads to a comfortable cover for the Clippers. Lay the short points. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-13-14 | Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cardinals got destroyed 17-5 in Monday’s series opener vs. the Cubbies and suffice it to say, with what I believe to be one of top hurlers in all of baseball on the mound for it today, expect the home side to return the favor with a convincing wire-to-wire victory. Let’s not crown Chicago quite yet, remember that it had lost seven of eight, scoring three or fewer runs in six of its last seven previous to yesterday’s abnormal offensive outburst. Enter Adam Wainwright (6-2, 2.02 ERA) to exact some revenge; Wainwright has had issues vs. the Cubs this year, giving up 10 runs over 12 innings in splitting two match-ups, but has posted an almost non-existent 0.59 ERA in his other six starts. Wainwright comes in with momentum, he held Atlanta to a run and six hits over eight innings in a 7-1 win. The Cardinals line-up will look to bounce back today against the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta (0-0, 2.89 ERA) who gave up four runs off nine hits over four innings in his team’s eventual 12-5 win over the White Sox on Thursday. No need to overanalyze this pick, the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price. Play on St. Louis on the RUN LINE. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-12-14 | MIAMI GM4 v. BROOKLYN GM4 +2.5 | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -103 | 44 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* “EASTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH” on the Brooklyn Nets. AAA Sports Has: +2.5 Worst Case Scenario Line: +2.5 I took the Heat in Game 1 and won. I took the Nets in Game 2 and lost. I then took Brooklyn in Game 3 and won. After going 6-1 with the Nets in their first round match-up with the Raptors, I am now 2-1 with them in their second-round match-up with Miami. So here we are with Game 4; when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect Brooklyn to once again keep it close enough to at the very least escape with the ATS cover. In reality, the Nets very well could have easily won Game 2 as well, they were within 2-points of the Heat late in the fourth quarter, but the team collectively had its worst shooting performance all year. I like the home side to build of its last effort, and think it will look even sharper this time around; note that Brooklyn hit 15 of 25 from behind the arc and outrebounded Miami 43-27 in Game 3. The Nets have done a superb job in slowing down LeBron James, who is now averaging just over 20 PPG in this series after scoring just 20 in Game 3: “We just had a little success against them during the regular season. We played them well and we feel like we match up well with them," Nets star guard Deron Williams assessed afterwards. "And if we're on top of our game, we're playing defense the way we're capable of playing, like we did the last game, we put ourselves in a good position to win." Miami has been excellent in bouncing back after a loss in the Playoffs during its back-to-back titles, but I think that trend gets bucked tonight; the Nets are loaded with experience as well and I like them to get the job done in front of the home town crowd. Grab the points. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-10-14 | MIAMI GM3 v. BROOKLYN GM3 +1.5 | Top | 90-104 | Win | 100 | 25 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Brooklyn Nets. AAA Sports Has: +2.5 Worst Case Scenario Line: +1.5 It’s do or die time for the Brooklyn Nets. Time to put up or shut up. The four regular season victories over Miami will be flushed down the proverbial crapper with another lacklustre effort. I played the Nets in Game 2 and they looked fantastic for 3.5 quarters, and then would implode down the stretch, we’d miss the cover by a bucket. I believe this is finally the spot that the Heat have a let down in the Playoffs, Brooklyn isn’t going to get swept and this is a prime situation to back this highly motivated home side. There’s no way that Nets’ star point-guard Deron Williams is going to go 0 for 9 again; the same can be said for the veteran Kevin Garnett who finished just 2 of 8: “We have a lot of confidence in ourselves," Garnett said. "We just have to go home and defend our home court." Brooklyn has done a very good job in defending LeBron James, he’s averaging just 22 points; all the Nets had to do was to hit a few open shots and there’s no question in my mind that they could have taken Game 2, coming home to Brooklyn all tied up. Despite all of the shooting woes Brooklyn endured, it was within just two points midway through the fourth quarter; with just a tiny bit of improvement, the Nets can win this one outright: “We need a win. It's a must-win," Williams commented. "We can't afford to go down 3-0. We need to get these at home starting with the one on Saturday." I think the writing is on the wall; the Nets’ finally play a full four quarters and at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door once the final horn sounds. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-06-14 | Brooklyn Nets v. Miami Heat -7 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 47 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Miami Heat. AAA Sports Has: -7 Worst Case Scenario Line: -7 Brooklyn managed to gut out a seven game series over the Raptors in its Opening round, while the Heat have been off after sweeping the Bobcats in four. Brooklyn took all four games off Miami this year, winning three by a single point and the other in double over time. Suffice it to say, unlike what Indiana did yesterday, I look for the higher seeded two-time defending champions to take advantage of the older and extremely tired Nets, to send a clear message in this opening game and to avenge the earlier setbacks at the same time: “They figured out a way to beat us four times and that hasn't happened," said Heat star Dwayne Wade yesterday. "So we've got to crack that code." For me this selection is simple, it’s situationally based; Brooklyn barely got by Toronto and now hits the road to play arguably the best team on the planet that’s rested and ready to do some damage. I’m expecting Miami to jump out to an early lead and to never look back; play on the Heat. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-05-14 | Washington Wizards v. Indiana Pacers -4.5 | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -105 | 40 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* “2ND RND GAME OF THE YEAR” on the Indiana Pacers. AAA Sports Has: -4.5 Worst Case Scenario Line: -4.5 I played on Indiana in Games 6 and 7 in its opening round series vs. the Hawks. No doubt about it, that was a super interesting 7 games. Atlanta took the No. 1 seed to the brink, but the Pacers would “find” themselves in those two final games and I look for that confidence and momentum to get carried over into this contest. Washington is a very similar team to Atlanta and Indiana now has a blueprint in which to attack it: “I think (Atlanta) helped us in terms of understanding how to be in gaps, being there for one another, rotating, so we're ready for the next round," the Pacers’ Paul George said yesterday. Washington though also looks to establish its big men, its pivotal in its game plan to keep defenders honest and it opens up stuff from the outside for it sharp-shooters. However, Marcin Gortat and Nene will have their hands full on both ends of the court with the bigger and more athletic David West and Roy Hibbert. Indiana will also comes in sharp to this first contest, while the Wizards have had a full five days off; I think the visitors will be a little flat-footed and rusty to start. And finally, Washington has simply struggled in Indiana for years now, it’s lost 12 straight there including both times this year. I look for Indiana to send an early message with a convincing effort; play on Indiana. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-04-14 | Brooklyn Nets +3 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* “SUPER BLOCKBUSTER” on the Brooklyn Nets. AAA Sports Has: +3 Worst Case Scenario Line: +3 It’s all come down to this. I took the “under” in Game 1, the Raptors in Games 2, 3 and 4, the Nets in Game 5 and then finally lost in this series by taking the Raptors in Game 6. I’ve won with both teams so far in this series, but think that Toronto wasted a huge opportunity in putting way this dangerous Nets squad. Brooklyn was finally able to dictate the pace and flow of the game on both ends of the court and I expect this veteran laden club to at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door with the handful of points it’s been afforded. Brooklyn came up just short in Game 5, erasing a 26-point deficit to score 44 points in the final frame, and that momentum was clearly carried over into Game 6: I think our momentum will carry over," the Nets’ Andray Blatche said yesterday. "I think we found the recipe." Let’s not forget, Brooklyn beat the Raptors in Toronto in Game 1. Toronto is stumbling, it barely held on for the win in Game 5 and was dominated thoroughly in all facets in Game 6. I believe the savvy experience the Nets bring to this contest can not be overlooked; the Raptors’ entire roster has played in a combined seven Game 7’s, which is one less than Brooklyn’s Paul Pierce alone. Here’s an interesting tid-bit which the oddsmakers were likely unaware of when setting this line; Toronto is just 3-7 SU this year in games which start before 6 PM EST. I believe the pressure is on Toronto, it was the higher seed which had a golden shot at putting away Brooklyn in Game 6, but stumbled horribly. Look for Brooklyn to employ an identical game-plan as what it used in Game 6 and grab those points. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-03-14 | Atlanta Hawks v. Indiana Pacers -6 | Top | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 39 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Indiana Pacers. AAA Sports Has: -5.5 Worst Case Scenario Line: I played on the Pacers in Game 6 and I look for the oft-criticized No. 1 seed to once again find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this one. Indiana All-Star Paul George has averaged more than 20 points in all six games and has double-doubles in five of them. George has also been the teams best defender, he’s done a much better job of slowing down Atlanta’s prolific scoring guard Jeff Teague. "My thing is that three of the last four times we've played these guys (in Indy), they built 20-point leads and beat us pretty good," Pacers coach Frank Vogel said yesterday. "So I don't think anyone from this team can think we're going to be OK just because we're back home." Atlanta has to be feeling pretty shaky coming off the Game 5 setback, it battled back from that nine-point deficit, even took a five-point lead late in the fourth quarter yet it still lost both SU and ATS. Vogel finally found a defensive match-up that was effective in slowing down the Hawks spread offense, a smaller line-up was the key. With what will be a wild crowd backing them, I like the home side to play its most complete game of this series and wrap it up with a resounding effort. Lay the points. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-03-14 | Tampa Bay Rays v. New York Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 110 | 16 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the New York Yankees. Tampa has won four straight, but I look for it to finally stumble here vs. Yankees’ rookie Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka is 3-0 with a 2.27 ERA so far this year, he’s given up a total of nine runs while limiting his opposition to a .205 batting average over his first 35 2/3’s innings in the big leagues (note that Tanaka also has 46 K’s as well). Most recently Tanaka gave up two runs off five hits over 6 1/3’s innings, not factoring into his team’s eventual 3-2 home win over the Angels; he did however finish with a season-best 11 strikeouts. The Yanks come in motivated, they’ve now lost three straight, including yesterday’s 10-5, 14-inning setback to Tampa. A date vs. Jake Odorizzi (1-3, 6.85 ERA) is just what the doctor ordered for the home side to get untracked; Odorizzi is 0-3 with a 9.17 ERA over his last four starts, giving up four runs off eight hits over 4 1/3’s innings in a 7-3 road loss to the White Sox on Monday. The clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolute justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Play on New York on the run line. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-02-14 | Toronto Raptors +5.5 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 83-97 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Toronto Raptors. AAA Sports Has: +5.5 Worst Case Scenario line: 5 This has been a roller-coaster series, of my five-straight victories, none have been easy, all have been close and each has come down to the wire. In Game 1 I had the “under”, in Games 2, 3 and 4 I took the Raptors, I then took the Nets in Game 5, and their improbable fourth-quarter comeback would produce winner No. 5. In Game 6, while I do think the visitors have a legitimate shot at winning outright, I will in the end grab as many points as I can. "We have no doubt. We're very confident," Toronto guard Greivis Vasquez said yesterday. "We're not going to underestimate them, but we're going to go there with the mentality that we're going to fight and we're going to do whatever it takes to get this win. We're very humble, but at the same time we're very hungry. We need to leave it all on the court. We've got to win Friday. It's not going to be easy but that's what we're looking for." Brooklyn rookie coach Jason Kidd has his hands full now with a couple of disgruntled players in Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce. Pierce had just 10 points in Wednesday’s setback and his team would get outscored by a whopping 31 points while he was on the floor. The younger Raptors have the elder statesman just where they want them, they will be pushing the pace of this contest from the outset, a major advantage for sure. In another highly competitive contest, I’m grabbing the points. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-01-14 | Indiana Pacers -1 v. Atlanta Hawks | Top | 95-88 | Win | 100 | 45 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Indiana Pacers. AAA Sports Has: -1 Worst Case Scenario Line: -1 With its back against the wall, I look for the beleagured No. 1 seed to play its most complete game of this series and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Atlanta has looked good. I wouldn’t go so far as to say great though. Indiana’s issues stem all the way back to when it traded Danny Granger, which is strange, because the sharp-shooter hardly played this year (or last), and the player that the Pacers picked up in Evan Turner is arguably as good, or better. But since that move, the Pacers have not been the “same” club. That said, I still believe they’re the better team; it’s better coached, it’s deeper and has more talented players. The Pacers won a pivotal Game 4 in Atlanta, holding the Hawks without a field goals over the final 4.5 minutes, Indiana will be playing with the extra confidence in that fact. All of my playoff selections are situationaly based picks, and that’s the case here. I think we’re getting great value on this line, Indiana has looked shaky but in this pressure packed situation, I like the No. 1 seed to rally on the road and to push this to a decisive Game 7; lay the short point/s. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-30-14 | Brooklyn Nets +3.5 v. Toronto Raptors | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 46 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Brooklyn Nets. These two teams battled tooth and nail in the regular season and so far it’s been an all out war in the playoffs. Toronto came out on top 87-79 in Game 4 on Sunday. I had the “under” in Game 1 and have taken the Raptors in Games 2, 3 and 4. Toronto covered the spread by a single bucket in Games 2 and 3, before pulling off the outright upset in Game 4. With their backs against the wall, I look for the venerable visitors to keep this one competitive down the stretch and to come away with at least the ATS cover at the end. The Raptors and the media can talk all they want about being the underdog, but the Nets will be playing with the extra motivation of being the dog tonight. It’s safe to say that we’re going to see a heavy dose of the Nets’ Deron Williams who scored 22 and 25 points in Brooklyn’s two victories. We can also expect the Nets to press early; Brooklyn ranked fourth in the league with 8.6 steals per game is No. 2 so far in the playoffs with 9 per contest. And that’s bad news for the Raptors who had a whopping 59 turnovers through the first three games. The scheduling has also greatly favored the older Nets in this series, this is now the third time that they’ve had two whole days off between games. After taking all of the above factors into consideration, I’m grabbing as many points as I can. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-29-14 | Toronto Blue Jays v. Kansas City Royals -1.5 | Top | 7-10 | Win | 151 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Kansas City Royals. No need to overanalyze this one, the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the return in my opinion. Jason Vargas (2-0, 1.54 ERA) gets the call for the home side; Vargas is looking to open 3-0 as a starter for the first time in his career, he’s allowed just two earned runs or fewer in each of his first five outings. So far the southpaw is holding his opposition to a .214 average (note that Vargas has walked just eight in 35 innings). Most recently Vargas gave up three runs over six innings in his teams 5-3 loss at Cleveland. The Jays counter with Dustin McGowan (1-1, 6.88 ERA) who earned his first win since 2008 in a 2-0 win at Baltimore on April 11, but who has since gone on to allow 13 runs over his other three starts spanning just 10 2/3’s innings of work. Most recently McGowan gave up six runs over four-plus innings in Wednesday’s 10-8 loss to the Orioles. Let’s not read too much into the Jays 7-1 win over Boston on Sunday, they’d lost four straight previous to that. The Royals return to Kansas City after taking two of three from the Orioles, Omar Infante had a career high six RBIs in Sunday’s 9-3 win. I like Vargas to go deep and expect McGowan to get chased early. Play the Royals on the RUN LINE for the healthy plus-money return. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-27-14 | Toronto Raptors +4 v. Brooklyn Nets | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 35 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the Toronto Raptors. AAA Sports Has: +4 Worst Case Scenario Line: +4 New Jersey has played better than I had originally thought it would in this series. I had the “under” in Game 1 and the Raptors in Games 2 and 3, narrowly getting the cover in both. There’s defnitely no reason to think that Game 5 won’t follow suit; I fully expect it to come down to the wire again. Brooklyn won 102-98 last time out, Toronto got into some early foul trouble and was never able to really mount the comeback. In particular Kyle Lowry was roughed up pretty good, he had 15 points and four assists in 38 minutes and then fouled out: "They're paying so much attention to me, sometimes they're playing 4-on-4," Lowry assessed afterwards. "And honestly, it's one of those things where we as a team make an adjustment, but personally I've got to find a way to get the ball and get more aggressive." Keep your eyes on the visitors’ DeMar DeRozan who had his second-straight 30-point game. Also note that Toronto big man Jonas Valanciunas was also in early foul trouble and took just four shots. You could see Brooklyn starting to get tired in that fourth quarter, the Raptors battled back from a 15-point deficit with just 5.5 minutes left; this is a major opportunity for Toronto which can finally take advantage of a tired/old Nets side. As stated off the top, the outright win is obviously not out of the question, but I’ll grab the points in the end just to be safe; play on Toronto. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-25-14 | Cleveland Indians v. San Francisco Giants -1.5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 139 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* “RUN LINE DESTRUCTION” on the San Francisco Giants. San Francisco was horrible in interleague action last year. This is its first game vs. a team from the American League this season and I expect Tim Hudson and company to take advantage of a favorable match-up on the mound. The Giants are swinging a hot bat and I believe that continues today. Most recently San Francisco is coming off a 12-10, 11-inning victory at Colorado on Wednesday in which it homered a season-high six times. And that’s bad news for the Indians’ Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 7.31 ERA), who is 0-11 with a ghastly 8.25 ERA in 16 starts since he last won in 2011. Hudson (2-1, 2.40 ERA) is having a resurgent start and gave up two runs over seven innings in a 3-1 setback to the Friars on Saturday. San Francisco has won five of nine match-ups vs. the Tribe in interleague action, and with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill, who is backed by an incredibly hot offense right now, look for this strong trend to continue here; lay the 1.5 runs for the big return in a game which will prove to be a never in double laugher. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-24-14 | Chicago White Sox v. Detroit Tigers -1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 101 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* “RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the Detroit Tigers.
The home side sends its ace to the mound to even this series; suffice it to say, when the dust does finally settle at the end of this one, I look for the Tigers to have pulled away for a decisive victory. If history is any precedence, then Max Scherzer and the Tigers are loving their chances as the reigning Cy Young winner has won three straight over Chicago in front of the home town crowd. Detroit will be eager to atone for yesterday’s setback as Chicago would hit a grand slam in the seventh to secure the 6-4 win. I believe the hard-hitting White Sox finally get shut down here though; Scherzer has been dominant in the series, he’s 5-1 with a minuscule 1.05 ERA in his last seven starts vs. the White Sox at Comerica Park, giving up only six runs over 51 2/3’s innings in that span. Most recently Scherzer allowed one run and three hits over seven innings in his team’s 5-2 win vs. the Angels on Saturday. The visitors counter with Jose Quintana who gave up five runs off nine hits while striking out one over five innings in his team’s 6-3 setback at Texas. No need to overanalyze this one, I think the clear talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Play on the Tigers run line.
AAA Sports | |||||||
04-23-14 | Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 v. Miami Heat | Top | 97-101 | Win | 100 | 63 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* “OPENING ROUND SIDE OF THE YEAR” on the Charlotte Bobcats.
AAA Sports Has: +10.5 -105
Worst Case Scenario Line: +10.5 -130
Charlotte failed to cover the spread by a single bucket in Game 1. I think the Bobcats can duplicate or even better that mark in Game 2 and will therefore grab as many points as I can. Al Jefferson’s availability is in question, but I seriously don’t think it will matter here for the Bobcats, who for the most part played without Jefferson in the first game. The Charlotte big man was injured in the first quarter and then would hobble through the final three-quarters, completely ineffective. Note that the Heat also have a major injury concern, starting point guard Mario Chalmers was held out of practice yesterday with deep shin bruise. We can expect the visitors to get Michael Kidd-Gilchrist involved as much as possible, Charlotte would actually outscore the Heat by eight when he was playing in Game 1; Kidd-Gilchrist will need to be careful though as he was on the floor for a season-low 15 minutes because of early foul trouble. And that greatly effected the Bobcats on both end of the floor, as Kidd-Gilchrist was tasked to primiarly stop LeBron James. History though is definitely on our side, it was just the 14th time this enitre season that Kidd-Gilchrist had at least four fouls in a game. Miami’s Dwayne Wade was highly effective in Game 1, but he’s always a question mark from game to game, which also plays into our hands here; note that Charlotte was 13-4 in its last 17 such situations in the game immediately following a setback, which means that they’re a highly resilient bunch. In my opinion, a great situational play, all signs point to a comfortable cover for the Bobcats. Grab the points.
AAA Sports | |||||||
04-14-14 | Memphis Grizzlies v. Phoenix Suns -3.5 | Top | 97-91 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* “WESTERN-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH” on the Phoenix Suns. The Suns will need some help to make the post-season and the team they’re battling for the final spot comes to town off the second game of a back to back. Phoenix also plays with triple revenge here as the Grizzlies have taken the other three meetings this season. The Grizzlies are coming off a 12-point win at the Lakers last night and need to win one of their last two games to clinch a playoff berth. Obviously it won’t be easy, especially in tonight’s hostile environment just 24 hours after playing. Phoenix will be extra motivated here, coming off back-to-back losses, most recently a 101-98 setback to Dallas on Saturday. The Suns trail Memphis by one game for the final playoff spot and the Grizz hold the tiebreaker. In order for Phoenix to leap-frog the Grizzlies it needs to win tonight, win again in its season finale vs. the Kings, and then have Memphis fall in its last game vs. the Mavericks (note that Memphis is just 13-17 ATS this year when playing the role of underdog). The Suns have lost the last two meetings with Memphis after winning 11 of the previous 13, but a plethora of motivationl and situational factors are aligning for it and I look for the home side to step up and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night (note that Phoenix is 24-15 ATS this year in revenging a loss vs. an opponent and 7-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road contests). Lay the short points. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-13-14 | Chicago Cubs v. St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* “SITUATIONAL RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION” on the St. Louis Cardinals. The home side will look to build off one of its best offensive performances in the finale of this three-game set. St. Louis would actually hit just .212 over its first 10 games and scored three runs or fewer in six of those contests. The Cards certainly have looked better of late though as they had seven hits in a 6-3 loss in 11 innings in Friday’s series opener, before then recovering to smash the Cubbies 10-4 yesterday: “It was nice to get some runs," Cardinals manager Mike Matheny assessed last night. "We took some good at-bats right from the top." St. Louis has won six of its last seven vs. Chicago including five of six in front of the home town crowd. A match-up vs. the Cubs’ Edwin Jackson is just what the doctor ordered for the Cards’ to keep their winning ways rolling. Jackson is 0-0 with a 6.30 ERA this season and is a brutal 1-5 with a 7.52 ERA in his last seven vs. St. Louis. Keep your eyes on the Cards’ Yadier Molina who is 12 for 23 (.522) lifetime vs. Jackson; also note that St. Louis’ Allen Craig is 7 for 15 (.467) off of him. St. Louis hands the ball to Michael Wacha who is 1-0 with a minuscule 0.71 ERA this year; Wacha has won back to back starts and gave up just one run over six frames in Monday’s win over the Reds. I think the momemtum that the Cards’ created at the plate yesterday gets carried over here and that Wacha continues to build on his stellar start. The clear talent discrepancy on the mound justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. Play on the Cards “run line”. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-09-14 | Miami Heat v. Memphis Grizzlies | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* “NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR on the Memphis Grizzlies. The Grizzlies have been off for a couple days as they prepare for the final push to end the season, needing to make up a little ground before they get invited to the postseason. Memphis is most recently coming a listless 112-92 loss to San Antonio on Sunday. So not only will Memphis be eager to atone for that setback, but it also plays with revenge after a 91-86 setback in Miami on February 21st. While the Grizzlies have failed to cover the spread in seven straight games, I think this is a prime opportunity for them to buck all of these trends (note that Memphis is 9-4 ATS this season when playing with two days of rest and 6-4 ATS after allowing 105 points or more). Miami comes in distracted, it’s coming off an 88-87 loss at home to the Nets. Brooklyn would sweep the season series over Miami, and the press is really blowing it out of proportion right; ultimately, I think it will be a distraction tonight for the visitors (and note that Miami is already a poor 13-15 ATS in all non-conference games). Memphis ranks third in the league in scoring defense, allowing just 94.4 PPG. "We've had to work very hard to get back to where we are right now, to even be in this position," said the Grizzlies’ Mike Conley last night. "It's the end of the year. Everybody's legs are tired. You're going to hit that wall here and there. We have to fight through it just like every other team." Another distraction for Miami, with a short day off tomorrow it will then host Indiana on Friday night, there’s no question that this is a “look ahead” spot for the Heat as well. Miami has been shaky on the road all year, before winning its last two away from friendly confines it had dropped six of seven as the visitor. Also note that this is a place that Miami has struggled in for some time now, it’s dropped four of its last five in Memphis. A great situational play, I’m backing the home side. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-07-14 | Kentucky v. Connecticut +2.5 | Top | 54-60 | Win | 100 | 40 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* “ASSASSIN” on Connecticut. I played the Huskies in their win over the Gators in the Final Four and I believe that they’re once again getting little respect here. UConn’s tough defensive play, especially against some of the nation’s top back-courts will once again prove to be the difference in the outcome of this game in my opinion. "Hopefully we have an opportunity to fall back on our defense," Huskie’s second-year coach Kevin Ollie assessed yesterday. "We have been doing that the whole year." Kentucky once again needed a bit of “luck” to advance into the Championship round as guard Aaron Harrison nailed a 26 foot 3-pointer with just 5.7 seconds left to lift the Wildcats to the 74-73 win over Wisconsin; remember, Harrison hit the almost exact same shot with just 2.3 seconds left vs. Michigan for the 75-72 win in the Elite Eight. Suffice it to say, I believe that “luck” runs out tonight. UConn was dominant in all phases vs. the Gators and will not be intimidated by size or supposed athleticism. Huskies’ sharp-shooter Shabazz Napier has been unstoppable and leads the team in almost every single statistical category. His backcourt teammate Ryan Boatright has been almost as impressive, but it’s been Boatright’s defensive play which has turned the most heads as he’s dominated the likes of Scottie Wilbekin of Florida and Keith Appling of Michigan State. "Defense is the biggest thing for me. The points will come," Boatright said yesterday. "I want to make him uncomfortable, don't let him get in a rhythm or flow. Their guards, God blessed them with height and they will try to take advantage of smaller guys like us but I've been the smaller guy my whole life and I've never backed down." Not many would have had these two playing for the National Championship game in their Brackets three weeks ago, but here we are. If this Tournament has taught us anything, it’s that we should expect the unexpected and that grabbing the points is a good thing. I’m riding the defensive juggernaut, and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I’ll ultimately recommend grabbing the points. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-05-14 | Kentucky -1.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 74-73 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on Kentucky. Kentucky (28-10) booked its way into the Final Four with a 75-72 win over Michigan in the Elite 8. Aaron Harrison hit a cold blooded three pointer with the game tied with seconds to go in the game. Julius Randle was a beast all game with 16 points and 11 rebounds and the freshmen starters prevailed yet again for the Wildcats. Wisconsin (30-7) booked a trip to Texas with a 64-63 OT win over Arizona. Frank Kaminsky carried his team with 28 points and 11 rebounds all the way through the extra period. I have obviously been impressed with both these teams but I think the Wildcats are the better all round team right as John Calipari has his freshmen stars playing together as a cohesive unit right now. The Badgers have had one consistent scorer in Kaminsky and its’ highly likely he is not as effective in this game having to deal with the bruising Julius Randle in this game. The Wildcats have had a tough road to get this point, beating out undefeated Wichita State, defending champ Louisville before taking out the hot shooting Wolverines team last game. With all due respect to the Badgers, their road hasn’t quite been as hard and Kentucky has been playing these close games for quite some time now. Kentucky is 7-0 ATS in tournament games this season. Lay the short points with the well rounded Wildcats team. AAA | |||||||
04-05-14 | Connecticut +6.5 v. Florida | Top | 63-53 | Win | 100 | 132 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* “BLOCKBUSTER” on Connecticut. Connecticut (30-8) is coming off a 60-54 upset win over Michigan State. Shabezz Naiper was all-world in this contest with a vintage 25 point performance. The Huskies held the Spartans to 39.7 percent field goal shooting with a ton of the looks coming from outside. Florida (36-2) booked a trip to the Final Four with a 62-52 win over Cinderella Dayton. Scottie Wilbekin scored 23 points, Patric Young scored 12 points, and Michael Frazier II added 10 for Florida. The Huskies beat the Gators earlier this season with Napier scoring 26 points including the game winner shot at the buzzer. I think we see another highly contested game here. Shabazz Napier is willing his team to victories and there is no reason he can’t do it again here in the Final Four against a Florida team that really is comparable to the loaded Michigan State team. The Gators got a nice win over Dayton but it should be noted that Florida allowed the Flyers to hang around all game. The Huskies have been fantastic ATS in this tourney and in all tournaments this season held on neutral courts. Don’t expect the underdog team here to be “star struck” by the overall number one seed in Florida. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Huskies pull out the outright win here. Grab the points. AAA |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,395 |
Joey Tron | $617 |
Ray Monohan | $607 |
Ross Benjamin | $583 |
Big Al McMordie | $401 |
Matt Fargo | $327 |
Ricky Tran | $297 |
Sean Higgs | $140 |
Jesse Schule | $98 |
Kyle Hunter | $66 |