11-15-15 |
Vikings v. Raiders -150 | | 30-14 |
Loss | -150 | 88 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oakland Raiders.
The Raiders are coming off a 38-35 loss on the road at Pittsburgh, but it was a pretty impressive performance from this young team. Derek Carr threw for 301 yards with four TDs and one INT on 24-of-44 passing. He's putting up some incredible numbers for a guy in just his second season, with 19 TD passes and just four picks on the season.
The 4-4 Raiders will be hosting a Vikings team that is tied with Green Bay at the top of the NFC North with a 6-2 record. The Vikes though have had a really soft schedule, with not one of their six wins coming against a team with a winning record. Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of last week's win over St. Louis with a concussion, but the Vikes are expecting him back this afternoon.
He's not exactly lighting it up, with just six TD passes this season, along with six INTs. Last week he through for 144 yards and an INT on 13-of-21 passing. He's passed concussion protocol, but he could be one hit away from an early exit in this game.
As always, the Vikes offense will likely revolve around Adrian Peterson. He's drawing a tough matchup though, on the road against the league's 5th ranked run defense that has held opponents to just 96.9 rushing yards per game.
Take OAK.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-15-15 |
Panthers -4 v. Titans | | 27-10 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on the Carolina #Panthers. Despite the fact that the Panthers are undefeated, they still don't get a lot of respect from the public or the bookmakers. When the Panthers were 4-0, people said they hadn't played anybody, and they weren't that good. Then they went into Seattle and upset the Seahawks. They followed that up with a home win over Philly, but still people said: "they aren't that good". Last week they beat the Green Bay Packers at home, moving to 8-0 on the season, and still people are looking for reasons to say: "they aren't that good". I'll tell you what, they look pretty damn good to me! Now Tennessee might look like a good bet as a home dog in this spot, as the Titans are coming off a big road win at New Orleans, and they've played some close games at home against Indianapolis, Buffalo and Atlanta. I think that's fools gold though, and with public money driving this number down to just four points, I'm tempted to take the value bet with the Panthers. After all, the Titans have only two wins this year, and the two teams they beat are both ranked near the bottom of the league in scoring defense, allowing opponents to average roughly 30 points per game. The Panthers have one of the league's best defenses, and they rank 4th in the NFL in quarterback sacks. As much as like Marcus Mariota, I really don't like his chances of having a big game against this defense. The Panthers are a team that has proven to find a way to win, while you have to say that the Titans more often than not find a way to lose. Call me crazy, but I'll take an 8-0 team as a short favorite against a team that has won just one of it's seven on most days. Take CAR. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-14-15 |
Washington State +11.5 v. UCLA | Top | 31-27 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington State Cougars. The Washington State Cougars will be a double digit dog at UCLA tonight, but I am not sure how you can justify that line based on how the two teams have played so far this season. Perhaps the name "UCLA" comes with a big reputation, but I wouldn't feel to comfortable with a team asked to cover a bunch of points based on what it did in years, rather that how it is playing in the current season. These teams are both 4-2 withing the conference, and they have a few common opponents. The Cougars are coming off a win over Arizona State, a team that upset the Bruins in Los Angeles. They both loss to Stanford, but UCLA was crushed by 20 points, while Washington State lost on a field goal inside two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. The Cougars did lose on the road at Cal, but only by a margin of six points. In fact all three of their losses this season have come in close games. History certainly favors Washington State as an underdog to UCLA, as the Cougars are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. The Bruins will have their hands full trying to stop Luke Faulk, who ranks second in the FBS in passing yards, and first in yards per game. He's averaged over 500 yards and five TDs in the Cougars last five wins. Take WSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-14-15 |
Oklahoma +3.5 v. Baylor | Top | 44-34 |
Win | 100 | 144 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma Sooners.
Critics have said that Baylor hasn't played anybody, and last week's 31-24 win at Kansas State didn't silence any of the doubters. That same Kansas State team lost 55-0 at home to Oklahoma two weeks previously, and the Bears host the Sooners this week. The Sooners aren't out of the playoff race yet. They have won four straight by an average margin of 45.5 points since their loss to Texas in the Red River Rivalry game.
Baker Mayfield is putting up huge numbers in his first season at quarterback for Oklahoma, with 2812 passing yards, 28 TDs and just four INTs. He's thrown 14 TD passes and just one INT in his last four games. Baylor has beaten the Sooners by a combined 63 points in the last two meetings, largely because the Sooners were unable to keep up offensively with Trevor Knight at quarterback.
I expect it to be a different story here this weekend, as you have to give Oklahoma the edge at quarterback with Baylor turning to freshman Jarrett Stidham who makes just his second career start. He's looked great so far, but has yet to face a defense of the caliber of Oklahoma. The Sooners boast one of the nation's top defenses, allowing opponents to average just over 18 points per game. That's pretty impressive when you consider some of the teams they've played: (Tennessee, Texas Tech, Texas, West Virginia, K-State).
The Bears glaring weakness is on the defensive side of the ball, as they've given up a ton of points despite a soft schedule. Baylor ranks 60th nationally, allowing an average of 25 points per game. Bears fans should be pretty concerned about the fact that their team has given up 20+ points to the likes of Lamar, SMU and Iowa State.
Take Oklahoma.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-14-15 |
Memphis +7 v. Houston | Top | 34-35 |
Win | 100 | 91 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Memphis Tigers. The Tigers suffered a shocking upset at home to Navy last week, but perhaps that result shouldn't be all that surprising. Navy is a lot better than some people realize. After all, the Midshipmen are 7-1, and their only loss came on the road at Notre Dame, and they weren't really out-classed in the loss to the Nation's 4th ranked team. Memphis will need to pick up the pieces and try to get back on track this week at Houston, facing an undefeated Cougars team. I've been saying for a while that the Cougars are overrated, and this is what I said prior to last week's game versus Cincinnati: "The Cougars are having their way with the minnows of their conference, but let’s face it, their schedule is a bit of a joke. Last week they cruised to 59-10 win over Central Florida, a team that is now 0-7 on the season. It wasn’t their first win against a team with a losing record, in fact all seven of Houston’s wins have come against teams that are currently below .500. They are 4-0 against AAC teams, but those four opponents have a combined conference record of 1-13. They gave up a combined 52 points in their wins over SMU and Tulsa, who are both 0-3 in conference play. Their schedule will get a whole lot tougher real quick, facing Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Memphis over the next three weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they drop at least two of those three games." They did beat Cincinnati, but it was a close game decided by just a field goal. I think Memphis will be a lot tougher than the Bearcats, and I am not convinced that Houston deserves to be favored at all, let alone by as many as seven points. Take Memphis. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-14-15 |
Washington v. Arizona State -140 | | 17-27 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona State Sun Devils. It's been a brutal season so far for the Sun Devils, who have failed to live up to expectations. They come into tonight's game off three straight losses, but those were games against the top three teams in the PAC12 North. They probably deserved better in an overtime loss to Oregon at home, and the way the Cougars have played there's no shame in losing a close game on the road at Washington State. They return home for a huge game here against the Washington Huskies, needing a win to remain on track to qualify for a bowl game. The Huskies are a scrappy team, and they are more than capable of covering a big spread as a road underdog. They don't often win outright on the road in spots like this though, and I think the bookmakers are not giving Arizona State enough credit. After all, the Sun Devils are 9-0 straight up, and 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings. Take ARZST. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-12-15 |
Bills v. Jets -134 | | 22-17 |
Loss | -134 | 45 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the New York Jets.
Rex Ryan returns to New York for the first time as the head coach of the Buffalo Bills, and there is no love lost between Ryan and his former team. Ryan has ruffled some feathers by naming IK Enemkpali as one of the team captains for tonight's game. Enemkpali was released by the Jets earlier this season after he broke Geno Smith's jaw.
The Bills had lost three straight before beating Miami on Sunday, and it was their running game that was the recipe for success against the Fish. They ran for 266 yards and three TDs, with both LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams running for over 100 yards. They aren't going to be able to do that against the Jets, who own the league's top run defense allowing opponents to average just 80.6 yards per game. The Jets have allowed a league low 2 rushing TDs so far this season.
Ryan Fitzpatrick played versus the Jaguars despite an injury to his non-throwing hand, and he was very effective throwing for 272 yards and a pair of TDs. He's facing a Bills secondary that has struggled against the pass, allowing opponents to average 260 passing yards per game.
Both teams are dealing with injuries, with several players expected to play through various ailments. I expect the Jets to have a little more success airing it out, and stuff the Bills run game. The home team has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings between these two teams, and the price is right to back the Jets at home.
Take NYJ.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-12-15 |
Virginia Tech +3.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 23-21 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Virginia Tech Hokies.
One might wonder what this season could have been like for the Hokies if their starting quarterback wasn't lost on opening night. Michael Brewer threw for 156 yards and a pair of TDs on 11-of-16 passing Virginia Tech's opening night game against the Buckeyes. The Hokies led 17-14 at the half, and the offense was moving the ball well until Brewer suffered a serious shoulder injury that forced him out of the game early in the second half. He missed the next five games, and didn't make his next start until October 24th versus Duke. He threw for 270 yards and three TDs in that game, but the Hokies lost in overtime.
Georgia Tech has also failed to live up to expectations, losing six of their last seven games. Injuries have taken their toll on this team, and we could see as many as eight freshman start tonight's game. They will be without starting WR Michael Summers, who abruptly quit without providing an explanation last week. This could make life even more difficult for the Yellow Jackets struggling quarterback. Justin Thomas is completing just 43% of his pass attempts this season, and he's also been less effective running the ball.
The Hokies have won four of their last five versus Georgia Tech, and the one loss came by a score of 27-24. They still have plenty to play for as they need two more wins to become bowl eligible, and I like their chances of winning outright here.
Take VT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-15 |
Eagles -170 v. Cowboys | | 33-27 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Cowboys lost a close game to Seattle last week, but I think the final score in that game was a little deceiving. Dallas only managed 220 yards of total offense, and were held to just four field goals. Matt Cassel was brutal once again, throwing for just 97 yards on 13-of-25 passing. Dez Bryant was a non factor, with just two catches for 12 yards. The running game wasn't all that effective either, with Darren McFadden gaining 64 yards on 20 carries.
They host the Eagles on Sunday night, and this is a well rested team that has an opportunity to avenge a 20-10 home loss to Dallas earlier this season. Philly has underachieved so far, but still come in with one more win than Dallas. It's also the first time DeMarco Murray returns to Dallas, after the Cowboys let him go in the off-season. This is a tough spot for Dallas, with so many issues on and off the field. They released running back Joseph Randle during the week, and Greg Hardy is making headlines for all the wrong reasons. Dez Bryant has also been involved in some controversy, and he's not likely to be much of a threat until Tony Romo returns.
Take PHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-15 |
Giants -133 v. Bucs | Top | 32-18 |
Win | 100 | 137 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New York Giants.
The Giants lost on the road at New Orleans last week, and everyone is down on this team coming into this week. I've heard so much talk about how bad their defense is, how they can't stop the pass, and look at how many points they give up. All that is true ... but I am not hearing any talk about the fact that Eli Manning threw for 360 yards and six TDs, or Odell Beckham Jr pulling in eight catches for 130 yards and three TDs.
The Giants defense is bad, and I won't argue about that. I will point out though that they are going into to Tampa to face a rookie quarterback that might be the least likely candidate to take advantage of their defensive shortcomings. I mean .. Jameis Winston is NOT Drew Brees. Famous Jameis only threw for 177 yards on 16-of-29 passing in the win over Atlanta last week. If this game turns into an offensive shootout, I really don't like Winston's chances of keeping pace with Eli and the Giants.
The Giants pass rush has been so bad, the return of Jason Pierre Paul isn't going to hurt. If he is completely ineffective, then they haven't lost or gained anything. He may well prove that he can still be an effective player despite his mangled hand.
I like the Giants to win this one by simply out-scoring the Bucs.
Take NYG.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-15 |
Rams +3 v. Vikings | Top | 18-21 |
Push | 0 | 134 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the St. Louis Rams.
The Minnesota Vikings host the St. Louis Rams this Sunday, and I think the bookmakers have the wrong team favored in this one. The Vikes are asked to cover a handful of points, perhaps because they have an impressive 5-2 record. A closer look at their schedule though reveals that none of those five wins have come against a team with a winning record, and in fact they've played the last place Lions twice. Their other three wins have come against the Chargers, Chiefs and Bears.
The Rams on the other hand have been testing themselves against the elite teams in the NFC West, and while they lost to the Packers, they did beat Seattle at home and won on the road at Arizona. Rookie running back Todd Gurley is already considered by some to be the league's top running back, coming off four straight games with over 125+ yards. He's averaging a league best 6.1 yards per carry this season, even more impressive when you look at the teams that he's faced.
Teddy Bridgewater still appears to have a long way to go as a quarterback in this league, and he threw for just 187 yards with a TD and an INT against the Bears. He's struggled against some of the league's weaker defenses, and I think he's going to be facing his toughest challenge of the season here this week. While the Rams and Vikes rank 5th and 6th respectively in total defense, the Vikings stats are a little skewed by an extremely soft schedule.
Take STL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-07-15 |
California v. Oregon -5.5 | Top | 28-44 |
Win | 100 | 151 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks.
The Ducks came into the season as the favorite to win the PAC12, and a legitimate playoff contender. They suffered a tough loss on the road at East Lansing, falling to Michigan State by a score of 31-28. Starting quarterback Vernon Adams played with a broken finger in that game, and he threw for 309 yards with a TD and two INTs on 22-of-39 passing. He would sit out the Ducks next game, a win over minnows Georgia State.
Things began to get ugly for the Ducks the following week, when they lost at home to Utah by a whopping 42 points. Adams re-injured his finger in that game, only attempting seven passes before giving way to Jeff Lockie. He sat out the next two games, and didn't return until October 17th in a win on the road at Washington. He threw for 272 yards and a pair of TDs in a 26-20 victory. Last week he went off for 315 yards and four TDs with one INT in a thrilling 61-55 win over Arizona State.
California on the other hand is coming off three straight losses, after starting the season 5-0. Starting quarterback Jared Goff has thrown as many INTs (7) as touchdowns during that span. The Bears have lost six straight to Oregon since 2007, and they've failed to cover in the last four of those games. Oregon was favored by a minimum of three scores in each contest, but they averaged well over 50 points and won in a blowout on all four occasions.
The Bears rank 63rd nationally allowing opponents to average over 163 rushing yards per game, and they are likely to struggle to stop Oregon's elite running game. When these teams met in California last year, the Ducks ran for 264 yards and a pair of TDs. We should expect a similar result here in Eugene.
Take ORE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-07-15 |
Michigan State -195 v. Nebraska | Top | 38-39 |
Loss | -195 | 107 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MSU straightup. The Spartans didn’t get any respect from the Playoff Committee, ranking in the 7th slot behind Baylor. They might not have the strongest schedule of the Playoff contenders, but their two signature wins over Oregon and Michigan are better than any game Ohio State has played so far. At the time they played the Spartans, Oregon was ranked 7th, and Michigan was ranked 12th. The Buckeyes have yet to face a Top 25 team. TCU is also ranked ahead of Michigan State, without a single win against a ranked team. Spartans fans don’t have to worry though, they were always going to have to run the table to make the playoffs, and if they knock off Ohio State they’ll be a sure bet to be in the Top 4. They are on the road at Nebraska this week, again getting very little respect from the bookmakers. The Cornhuskers have been downright awful this year, losing four of their five games in conference play. Their only win came against Minnesota, when the Gophers had so many injuries they could barely field a team. After watching them give up 55 points to Purdue last week, I am not sure how anyone could think they could hang with the Spartans. Take MSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-07-15 |
Cincinnati +9 v. Houston | Top | 30-33 |
Win | 100 | 123 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bearcats. When Houston hosts Cincinnati this weekend, it will be the first time this season they face a team with a winning record. Despite the fact that they have been padding their stats against weak teams, they are still a big favorite in this game. I've been saying for weeks that Houston is overrated, and this is what I had to say about them before last Saturday: "The Cougars are having their way with the minnows of their conference, but let’s face it, their schedule is a bit of a joke. Last week they cruised to 59-10 win over Central Florida, a team that is now 0-7 on the season. It wasn’t their first win against a team with a losing record, in fact all seven of Houston’s wins have come against teams that are currently below .500. They are 4-0 against AAC teams, but those four opponents have a combined conference record of 1-13. They gave up a combined 52 points in their wins over SMU and Tulsa, who are both 0-3 in conference play. Their schedule will get a whole lot tougher real quick, facing Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Memphis over the next three weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they drop at least two of those three games." The Bearcats have won five straight versus Houston since 1999, and they were the favorite in four of those five games. This is a different caliber of opponent for the Cougars, and I really think the bookmakers have the wrong team favored here. Take CINCI. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-07-15 |
Notre Dame v. Pittsburgh +10 | Top | 42-30 |
Loss | -115 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Panthers. The College Football Playoff Committee came out with their first Top 10 Ranking this week, and the results were a little shocking. They have the Irish ranked above undefeated BIG12 teams Baylor and TCU in the #5 slot. Notre Dame just barely escaped from Philly with a 24-20 win over Temple on Saturday, in a game that they trailed for most of the fourth quarter. Clemson somehow ended up in the #1 slot, and perhaps that also works in favor of the Irish, who’s only loss was on the road versus the Tigers. That game was nowhere near as close as the 24-22 score would indicate, as the Irish trailed 21-3 heading into the fourth quarter, but rallied to score 19 points. They’ve only played three games on the road so far, and both of their wins were of the “come from behind” variety. They still have two more tough road games at Pittsburgh and Stanford, and it seems highly unlikely that they’ll be able to run the table with that schedule. Take PIT. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-05-15 |
Browns v. Bengals -10 | | 10-31 |
Win | 100 | 87 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Cleveland Browns are coming off consecutive double digit losses, and last Sunday's home loss to Arizona was particularly disturbing for Browns fans. They opened up a 20-7 lead on the Cardinals, only to surrender 31 unanswered points. They were shutout in the second half, and I think it's going to be tough to put that performance behind them just a few days later on the road.
There's really nothing left to play for in Cleveland, and already rumors are swirling about several star players that are likely to be traded to contending teams. They have announced they will go with Johnny Football at quarterback, and he comes in with a completion percentage of just 56%, with 393 yards, three TDs and an INT in four appearances. This is a tough spot for a struggling young quarterback to try to prove himself, against an undefeated team with a strong defense.
The Bengals have won two of the last three in this rivalry, and those two victories were both blowouts, by a combined margin of 51 points. This year's Bengals team looks a whole lot sharper than previous versions, including the 2013-14 team that was 8-0 at home. They beat the Browns 41-20 at home that season, and a similar result should be expected tonight.
Take CINCI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-05-15 |
Baylor v. Kansas State +17.5 | | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the K-State #Wildcats. The College Football Playoff Committee didn't show any love to BIG12 teams in their first edition of this season's rankings. Despite the fact that Baylor, Oklahoma State and TCU remain undefeated, Oklahoma State didn't crack the Top 10, while Baylor and TCU were ranked outside the Top 5 behind Alabama and Notre Dame who each have one loss.
Strength of schedule was one of the concerns the committee saw with Baylor, and that's a fair point when you consider it's opponents have a combined 2-17 record in conference play. The fact that Baylor has played so many inferior teams, and for the most part at home, makes it even more concerning that it ranks 59th nationally in scoring defense allowing over 25 points per game.
They head into Manhattan as an enormous road favorite against a bitter conference rival who has given them tough games in recent years. Since 2011 these teams have played four times, with the home team covering each game. The Wildcats won at home by a score of 36-35 four years ago, and lost at home by 10 points two years later. Last year they played at Waco and the Bears won by a score of 38-27. K-State has played some competitive games against the other two undefeated teams in the conference, with losses to Oklahoma State and TCU both coming in games decided by single digits.
So there's ample evidence to suggest that Baylor is overvalued here, even before we touch on the fact that they just lost the nation's top rated quarterback. Seth Russell is out for the season after having surgery to repair an injured neck, and that means freshman Jarrett Stidham will be making his first career start. Now he's put up impressive numbers while mopping up games this year, but you can't read much into how he's played in games that were already over. He's facing a ton of pressure on the road in a hostile environment, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him face some growing pains.
Take K-State.
GL, Jesse Schule |
11-02-15 |
Colts +7.5 v. Panthers | | 26-29 |
Win | 100 | 112 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts have struggled so far this season, while the Panthers are still undefeated. Carolina has been impressive, but I am not sure this team should be asked to cover such a big spread against a team that was favored to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl before the season started.
Andrew Luck has been banged up early in the year, and recent reports indicate that the Colts weren't forthcoming about the severity of his injuries. This is old news as far as I'm concerned, here is what I said about it before last Sunday's game: "Andrew Luck threw for a season high 312 yards and three TDs, and finally looks healthy. In hindsight, I believe his poor play earlier in the season was likely due to a shoulder injury that was bothering him long before anyone was aware of it."
He didn't look to bad throwing for 333 yards and three TDs against the Saints, but a second half rally came up short in a 27-21 loss. He threw for 312 yards and three TDs in the loss to New England the previous Sunday.
While their records might suggest otherwise, I think these two teams are actually quite close when it comes to talent. I don't think the Colts are as bad as they looked in losses to Buffalo and New York in the first two weeks of the season, and I think Indy should be able to cover an inflated number on Monday night.
Take INDY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-01-15 |
Packers v. Broncos +3.5 | Top | 10-29 |
Win | 100 | 90 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
Have you heard the news? Peyton Manning is a has been, all washed up they say. Well I'll tell you right now that I'm not buying it. At the end of the day, his team is undefeated, and he's a big reason why. While his numbers don't show it, he's done just enough to put his team in position to win games, and that includes a 4th quarter comeback in Kansas City.
Manning threw for 256 yards and three TDs in that game, including an 80 yard drive that ended with a game-tying touchdown with 32 seconds on the clock. That allowed the Broncos to win the game with a fumble recovery for a TD on the next series.
It comes as no surprise to me that Manning's numbers are down this year, here is what I said before their home opener versus Baltimore: " I think this Denver team is going to have a different look in 2015. Rather than depending on Peyton Manning to carry the offense with an all out air attack, I expect more of an emphasis on the running game. I also believe they will have one of the league's best defenses with a healthy Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. The Broncos had a whopping 20 sacks on opposing quarterbacks this pre-season."
You can also blame poor offensive line play for much of his struggles, but coming off a bye week might be just what they needed to rejuvenate. The Packers rank first in the NFL in points allowed, but they were lit up for 503 yards and two TDs by Phillip Rivers in their last game.
Green Bay's prolific offense has never been quite as potent away from Lambeau Field, and they totaled just 17 points in San Francisco in their last road game. Rodgers has averaged just 206 passing yards in two road games this season, and a trip to Denver is a tougher test than the previous two.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-01-15 |
Seahawks -5.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 13-12 |
Loss | -107 | 161 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
After going to back to back Superbowls, and winning their division two years in a row, the Seahawks are flying under the radar this year with a record of just 3-4. They've lost three of four on the road, but lets have a look at those games. The St. Louis Rams, Green Bay Packers, and Cincinnati Bengals boast a combined record of 15-3. Seattle actually led in the fourth quarter of all three of those games.
If Cowboys fans relish the fact that Seattle has blown late leads, I would be quick to ask: "Do you really think Matt Cassel can engineer a fourth quarter comeback against this defense?"
The Cowboys lost to the Giants last week, and Cassel looked terrible throwing for 227 yards with a TD and three INTs on 17-of-27 passing. That was against a New York defense that came into that game ranking near last in the NFL against the pass.
The Seahawks lead the league in rushing, averaging over 143 yards per game. Dallas couldn't stop the Giants last week, as New York ran for 132 yards and a TD on just 25 attempts. This figures to be a tough matchup for the Cowboys who are likely going to struggle to run the ball, putting more pressure on their struggling backup quarterback.
Dez Bryant may return from injury, but he isn't likely to be as much of a factor as you might think. Tony Romo only missed one game last year, and Bryant caught just two passes for 15 yards in that game, with Brandon Weeden at quarterback in a 28-17 loss at Arizona.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-01-15 |
Giants v. Saints OVER 49 | | 49-52 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a Free play on NYG@NO to go OVER the total. New Orleans is coming off back to back upset wins over the Falcons and the Colts. Drew Brees has looked sharp since returning from injury, and he could be in for a big night against the Giants 31st ranked pass defense at home in the Superdome. Keep an eye on running back Mark Ingram as well, the 25 year old out of Alabama ran for a season high 143 yards and a TD against the Colts last week. Brees may have the luxury of having plenty of time to drop back in the pocket, as the Giants are really struggling to get to the quarterback. Just how bad is their pass rush? Well they've been using their backup fullback to fill in with so many injuries on defense. They also just signed Jason Pierre Paul to a contract despite the fact that he only has half of his right hand (the other half was blown off in a fireworks accident).
These teams have played three times since 2009, and they have combined to score more than 70 points in all three of those games. Only two teams in the NFL rank worse than the Saints in total defense, who rank 30th allowing opponents to score an average of 26.4 points per game. The Giants are not much better, ranking 29th, and they are likely going to struggle to stop this Saints offense in the Superdome. Brees threw for 319 yards on 30-of-39 passing in a 31-21 win over the Falcons in his last home game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-01-15 |
49ers v. Rams -7 | Top | 6-27 |
Win | 100 | 160 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the St. Louis Rams.
The San Francisco 49ers were embarrassed at home in a loss to Seattle on Thursday night. They can expect more of the same as they head out on the road to face a St. Louis team that has a similar defense. The Rams are coming off a big home win over the Browns, limiting Cleveland to a pair of field goals in a 24-6 victory. Todd Gurley was the star once again, he ran for 128 yards and a pair of TDs on just 19 carries. The rookie has averaged 144 yards per game, on better than six yards per carry over the last three games. Gurley will try to do what Marshawn Lynch did to this 49ers defense, as Beast Mode ran for 122 yards and a TD in Seattle's win last Thursday. Making matters even worse for San Francisco, they will be without their starting running back Carlos Hyde, who is battling a foot injury. Rugby League star Jarryd Hayne will be filling in, but this is a tough spot for the Aussie to try to make a name for himself. Colin Kaepernick was sacked six times last week, while throwing for just 124 yards and no scores. He's facing a Rams defense that ranks second on the NFL in sacks, so you can expect him to spend plenty of time picking himself up off the turf here today.
Take STL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-01-15 |
Giants v. Saints -168 | Top | 49-52 |
Win | 100 | 82 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Saints.
New Orleans is coming off back to back upset wins over the Falcons and the Colts. Drew Brees has looked sharp since returning from injury, and he could be in for a big night against the Giants 31st ranked pass defense at home in the Superdome. Keep an eye on running back Mark Ingram as well, the 25 year old out of Alabama ran for a season high 143 yards and a TD against the Colts last week. Brees may have the luxury of having plenty of time to drop back in the pocket, as the Giants are really struggling to get to the quarterback. Just how bad is their pass rush? Well they've been using their backup fullback to fill in with so many injuries on defense. They also just signed Jason Pierre Paul to a contract despite the fact that he only has half of his right hand (the other half was blown off in a fireworks accident). The Saints have won three straight home meetings with the Giants, scoring an average of 47 points in those victories. We should expect another blowout in the Big Easy here on Sunday.
Take N.O.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-31-15 |
Vanderbilt +12.5 v. Houston | Top | 0-34 |
Loss | -110 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Vanderbilt Commodores.
The Cougars are having their way with the minnows of their conference, but let’s face it, their schedule is a bit of a joke. Last week they cruised to 59-10 win over Central Florida, a team that is now 0-8 on the season. It wasn’t their first win against a team with a losing record, in fact all seven of Houston’s wins have come against teams that are currently below .500. They are 4-0 against AAC teams, but those four opponents have a combined conference record of 1-13. They gave up a combined 52 points in their wins over SMU and Tulsa, who are both 0-3 in conference play. Their schedule will get a whole lot tougher real quick, facing Vanderbilt, Cincinnati and Memphis over the next three weeks. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they drop at least two of those three games.
Vanderbilt is just 3-4, but the Commodores have played a far tougher schedule, losing to Georgia, Ole Miss and South Carolina. They did beat Missouri at home last week by a score of 10-3. The last time these two teams met was in the Compass Bowl in 2014, and the Commodores won by a score of 41-24.
Houston has run all over weaker teams, ranking sixth nationally averaging almost 300 yards rushing per game. They aren't likely to have as much success against an SEC defense that ranks 12th nationally against the run, allowing opponents to average just 109.9 rushing yards per game. When you factor in the strength of schedule, things look even more favorable for Vanderbilt.
Take the points.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-31-15 |
Oklahoma State -135 v. Texas Tech | | 70-53 |
Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Cowboys will travel to Lubbock to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who have a prolific offense and score a heck of a lot of points. They weren't all that prolific last week against Oklahoma though, losing by a score of 63-27. In fact Texas Tech ranks among the worst in the nation on defense, allowing over 40 points per game this season. The Cowboys on the other hand rank near the top of the country allowing fewer than 20 points per game so far. These teams face each other every year, and the Cowboys have dominated the series by winning six straight. They covered the spread in in five of those six games, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.. The Red Raiders are 48-19 in their last 67 home games, but they are just 1-14 against the top six teams in the BIG12 over the last three years. Take OKST. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-31-15 |
Georgia v. Florida -3 | Top | 3-27 |
Win | 100 | 144 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Florida Gators.
The Gators will take on the Georgia Bulldogs in Jacksonville on Saturday, and Florida is just a small favorite here. The Bulldogs are struggling, coming in as losers of two of their last three, and barely beating Missouri by a score of 9-6 at home last week. Junior quarterback Greyson Lambert has not been very impressive during that span, completing just 54 percent of his passes, with two TDs and a pair of INTs.
The Gators have only one loss, and that came on the road in Baton Rouge, with LSU scoring the game winning TD on a trick play late in the fourth quarter. They lost their starting quarterback Will Grier who was suspended for using PEDs, but Treon Harris came in and looked very sharp against LSU. He threw for 271 yards and a pair of TDs in a losing effort, and he has thrown four TDs with no picks so far this season.
The Bulldogs would match up a lot better with Florida if Nick Chubb was healthy, but since his gruesome injury against Tennessee, they haven't scored a rushing TD. Backup Sonny Michel ran for 87 yards on 27 carries at home against the Tigers last week. He's facing a Florida defense that has had plenty of success stuffing the run, so I don't expect him to have much success in Jacksonville.
Take FLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-31-15 |
Central Florida +27 v. Cincinnati | | 7-52 |
Loss | -110 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is Free #NCAAF play on the Central Florida #Knights. Anytime time you have a team like Cincinnati facing an opponent that is 0-8, you know which way the money is going to go. Of course everyone is lining up to bet the Bearcats as an enormous favorite at home this week. I think it's pretty naive to write off this Knights team though, and I think they can make a game of it. They have played some tough teams during their 0-8 start, and for the most part they have managed to avoid blowout losses. Last week they they were blown out at home by the undefeated Houston Cougars, but prior to that they lost a close game to Temple, blowing a late lead. The Bearcats can score points, but their defense ranks last in the AAC in sacks as well as takeaways. It was turnovers that killed the Knights last week, as they drove the length of the field on their opening possession, looked like they would score, but a UCF fumble was returned for a TD the other way. They finished the game with a -4 turnover ratio. The Knights have a new coach as assistant Danny Barrett will take over after George O'Leary stepped down following the loss to Houston. His mission will be to find a way to win at least one of the team's four remaining games, which isn't likely to happen hear in Cincinnati. I expect the Knights to come to play though, and they should be able to cover a grossly inflated number. Take UCF. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-31-15 |
Nebraska v. Purdue UNDER 54 | Top | 45-55 |
Loss | -110 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEB@PUR to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Cornhuskers versus the Boilermakers in Indiana. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 70% chance of rain, with winds as high as 24 km/h.
- Tommy Armstrong has been the Huskers biggest weapon on offense, both with his arm as well as his legs. He's thrown for over 2000 yards and 16 TDs this season, but he will not suit up here against Purdue as he's sidelined by a foot injury. - The under is 20-9 in Cornhuskers last 29 games on grass. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-29-15 |
Dolphins v. Patriots OVER 50.5 | | 7-36 |
Loss | -100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 2-Team (7-Point) Teaser with NE + OVER.
The Patriots continue to roll, coming off a 30-23 win over the Jets on Sunday. So what did we learn from that game? Most people would say that if the Patriots can score 30 points against the Jets defense, they can do it against anybody. The one thing that I noticed about that game was how the Patriots played with a lead in the fourth quarter. New England was in front 23-20, deep inside Jets territory with under two minutes to play. The book says you run the ball three times, burn up as much clock as possible, and if you can get a first down the game is over. That's exactly what we would have seen from any other NFL team in that situation, because the worst case scenario (barring a turnover) would be that you kick a chip shot FG to go up by six, and hand the ball back with just seconds on the clock forcing the other team to drive the length of the field for a TD.
The Pats did the unthinkable, allowing Tom Brady to drop back in the shotgun, and throw on every down. Not surprisingly they ended up tacking on another TD and went up by 10. While they increased their lead, the game was still far from over. The Jets then marched down the field and kicked a 55 yard field goal, and then executed a successful onside kick. This meant that New York still had a chance, whereas the game would have been over if the Pats could have just picked up 10 yards with three running plays.
Keep in mind, the Miami defense they are facing tonight is nowhere near as good statistically as the Jets. Miami is coming off consecutive wins, giving them a bit of swagger in their step. Those wins came against two of the league's bottom feeders though, and even in last week's blowout win over the Texans, Brian Hoyer lit them up for 273 yards, and three second half TDs.
The Dolphins have been out-scored 96-30 losing three straight in their last three trips to Foxboro, and going back further, they have lost 12 of their last 14 to the Pats.
Take NE+OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-29-15 |
Dolphins v. Patriots -7.5 | | 7-36 |
Win | 100 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 2-Team (7-Point) Teaser with NE + OVER.
The Patriots continue to roll, coming off a 30-23 win over the Jets on Sunday. So what did we learn from that game? Most people would say that if the Patriots can score 30 points against the Jets defense, they can do it against anybody. The one thing that I noticed about that game was how the Patriots played with a lead in the fourth quarter. New England was in front 23-20, deep inside Jets territory with under two minutes to play. The book says you run the ball three times, burn up as much clock as possible, and if you can get a first down the game is over. That's exactly what we would have seen from any other NFL team in that situation, because the worst case scenario (barring a turnover) would be that you kick a chip shot FG to go up by six, and hand the ball back with just seconds on the clock forcing the other team to drive the length of the field for a TD.
The Pats did the unthinkable, allowing Tom Brady to drop back in the shotgun, and throw on every down. Not surprisingly they ended up tacking on another TD and went up by 10. While they increased their lead, the game was still far from over. The Jets then marched down the field and kicked a 55 yard field goal, and then executed a successful onside kick. This meant that New York still had a chance, whereas the game would have been over if the Pats could have just picked up 10 yards with three running plays.
Keep in mind, the Miami defense they are facing tonight is nowhere near as good statistically as the Jets. Miami is coming off consecutive wins, giving them a bit of swagger in their step. Those wins came against two of the league's bottom feeders though, and even in last week's blowout win over the Texans, Brian Hoyer lit them up for 273 yards, and three second half TDs.
The Dolphins have been out-scored 96-30 losing three straight in their last three trips to Foxboro, and going back further, they have lost 12 of their last 14 to the Pats.
Take NE+OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-29-15 |
West Virginia v. TCU -14 | | 10-40 |
Win | 100 | 90 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the TCU Horned Frogs.
The Horned Frogs host West Virginia on Thursday night, and they are 2-touchdown favorite. I'm not a big fan of TCU as a playoff contender, and I don't think they deserve to be ranked as highly as they are. That being said, their weakness is on the road, and they don't seem to have any problem at all blowing out inferior opponents at home. West Virginia hasn't shown any ability to keep up with the elite teams in the BIG12, especially on the road.
The Mountaineers lost by 20 points at Oklahoma, and 24 points at Baylor. There has been a history of close games between the two schools, with two of the last three being decided by a single point, and the other an overtime win for WVU by a score of 30-27. Those were different Mountaineers teams though, and two of those games were at Morgantown.
The Horned Frogs are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, and they've out-scored opponents 176-51 in their three home wins this year. Trevone Boykin is among the favorites for the Heisman, and he threw for 332 yards and five TDs in a 50-7 win over Texas in his last start at home. The Mountaineers are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games in October.
Take TCU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-29-15 |
North Carolina v. Pittsburgh +3 | | 26-19 |
Loss | -109 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a free #NCAAF play on the Pittsburgh #Panthers. The Panthers sit in first place in the ACC Coastal with a 6-1 overall record and a conference mark of 4-0. Their only defeat came by just a three point margin on the road at Iowa, against a Hawkeyes team that remains undefeated at 7-0. The bookmakers don’t appear to be impressed with Pittsburgh’s 6-1 record, as they are listed a three-point dog at home to North Carolina on Thursday night. Both teams have the same overall record, and they have played several common opponents with similar results. The one thing that stands out to me though is that Pittsburgh has played five of it’s seven games on the road, while North Carolina has played six of it’s seven games at home. Previous games between the two teams have been close, with the Tar Heels winning three of four dating back to 2009. All four of those games were decided by seven points or less, and two of the three meetings in Pittsburgh were decided by three points or less. The Tar Heels are the sexy pick here because they've scored more points, winning games by a wider margin. The Panthers though have played tougher games, and are more battle tested.
Take the points.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-26-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Arizona Cardinals -7.5 | Top | 18-26 |
Win | 100 | 130 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Ravens come into Arizona with a 1-5 record, and their one victory came in overtime in Pittsburgh against a Steelers team that was without it's starting quarterback. They lost badly at San Francisco last week, and lost to the Cleveland Browns at home a week earlier. The Cardinals have had little trouble running up the score against the league's weaker teams, with double digit wins over New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit and San Francisco.
Carson Palmer is having a big year, throwing for 1737 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs so far. He's likely to have a big game hear against a banged up Baltimore defense that allowed Colin Kaepernick to throw for a season high 340 yards last week.
Joe Flacco was picked off twice in the loss to the 49ers, and he's simply being asked to do too much with very little help. He isn't surrounded by a lot of talent, with a depleted receiving corps, and a backup running back in Justin Forsett who only became the starter after Ray Rice was cut. Forsett was not very effective last week against San Francisco, running for 62 yards on 17 carries. He isn't likely to have any more success against an Arizona defense that is particularly strong against the run.
The Cardinals have been very tough at home, going 15-4 under Bruce Arians. They've also won 16 of 20 with Carson Palmer at quarterback.
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-25-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Carolina Panthers -175 | | 16-27 |
Win | 100 | 106 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Carolina Panthers.
Despite a perfect 5-0 record, the Panthers are just a slight favorite at home against the Eagles. Philly didn't look particularly convincing in any of their wins, as all three of those games were sloppy, filled with penalties, turnovers and a ton of mistakes.
Chip Kelly doesn't seem to be fooling anybody with his schemes, and the moves he made this off-season are still looking highly questionable. DeMarco Murray was able to run for over 100 yards for the first time this season last week against the Giants, but he's unlikely to find as much room to run against this Panthers defense. Carolina ranks 5th in the NFL in run defense, allowing opponents to average just 96 yards per game.
Sam Bradford has failed to impress, even against the league's worst defenses. He's thrown just three touchdowns and five picks the last two weeks, against the Saints and the Giants. The Saints rank second to last in the league in pass defense, while the Giants rank 28th. New York actually improved it's averages after holding Bradford to 280 yards with a TD and an INT on 24-of-38 passing.
Cam Newton is having an MVP caliber season so far, and he's in a good spot here at home against a banged up Eagles defense playing on a short week. Philly lost LB DeMeco Ryans and WR Riley Cooper on Monday night, and both are questionable to play in Carolina. The Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four games coming off a Monday Night Football appearance. Take CAR. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-25-15 |
New Orleans Saints v. Indianapolis Colts -4 | Top | 27-21 |
Loss | -115 | 87 h 9 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on the Indianapolis #Colts.
The Colts came into this season as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl, but after starting the season with back to back losses, their stock dropped significantly. Chuck Pagano made a colossal blunder on a fake punt late in last week's loss to New England, but overall the Colts looked pretty impressive in that game. Andrew Luck threw for a season high 312 yards and three TDs, and finally looks healthy.
In hindsight, I believe his poor play earlier in the season was likely due to a shoulder injury that was bothering him long before anyone was aware of it. He should be in for a big day against this Saints defense that ranks 25th in the NFL against the pass. New Orleans is 0-3 on the road so far, surrendering a total of 97 points in those three losses.
Drew Brees is still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, but his numbers are always better at the Super Dome than they are on the road. He's completed 74% of his passes for 926 yards, four TDs and one INT in three home games. His completion percentage drops to 61% on the road, throwing for 690 yards, three TDs and two INTs.
The Colts are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 home games, and the Saints have lost 10 of their last 14 road games. I think the number here should be a lot higher in favor of the Colts.
Take IND.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-25-15 |
NY Jets v. New England Patriots UNDER 48 | Top | 23-30 |
Loss | -105 | 62 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NYJ@NE to go UNDER the total. The Patriots are coming off a big win over the Colts in Indianapolis last week, but I think that sets them up for a let down here at home versus the Jets. This is by far the best team they have faced so far, and yet they are still being asked to cover a fair sized number. The Jets rank 1st overall in total defense, and they have allowed opponents to average just 187 yards passing per game. They went into Indianapolis in Week 2 and dismantled the Colts, winning by a score of 20-7. They picked off Andrew Luck three times in that game. Tom Brady certainly isn't expecting this game to be an easy one, and here is what he was saying during the week: "We've had a lot of close games with them over the years," he said. "A lot of situational football has come into play, a lot of two-minute drives and stopping them at the end, overtime games. Not too many games have really gotten out of hand." Nobody has been able to stop Brady this season, and the Jets will want to keep the ball out of his hands by holding possession with long clock killing drives handing off to Chris Ivory. The Jets star running back is averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season, and he's run for over 300 yards in his last two games. The Patriots defense hasn't had much success against the run, allowing opponents to average 114 yards per game. The weather could also be a factor here in Foxboro, as the weatherman is calling for a cold and windy day with a strong possibility of rain. That should play right into the hands of the Jets, who would be more than happy to grind it out in the trenches. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-25-15 |
Houston Texans v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 45 | Top | 26-44 |
Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
|
10-24-15 |
Texas A&M v. Ole Miss -4.5 | Top | 3-23 |
Win | 100 | 135 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
The Texas A&M Aggies started last season by going 5-0, but they fell apart when the schedule got a little tougher, losing five of their final seven games. They opened this season with five straight wins as well, but they came crashing down to earth last week in a 41-23 home loss to Alabama. Last year they played their second game of October at home against Ole Miss, and they lost that game by a score of 35-20. This year they travel to Oxford, where the Rebels are even tougher.
This will be the Aggies first true road game, and they have failed to cover in five of their last seven on the road. The Rebels are as tough a team as any to play on their own field, just ask Alabama. The Crimson Tide have dropped consecutive games to Ole Miss, including a loss at Oxford last year. That same Alabama team terrorized the Aggies quarterbacks last week, forcing Kyler Murray and Kyle Allen to throw four interceptions while completing just half of their passes.
The Rebels defense isn't going to be any easier, in fact Mississippi finished first in the country in total defense last season. So far this year they have allowed an average of 11.5 points per game at home. They picked off Alabama's quarterbacks three times in the win at Tuscaloosa, and Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly threw for 341 yards and three TDs without an INT in that game. Kelly has thrown for more yards, more touchdowns, with a higher completion percentage than his counterpart Kyle Allen.
Laremy Tunsil returns from suspension this week, shoring up the Rebels offensive line. His return could be key as they try to contain superstar pass rusher Myles Garrett. Both teams come into this game needing to win to keep their season alive, but I think the Aggies are going to come up short in Oxford.
Take MISS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-24-15 |
Connecticut v. Cincinnati UNDER 58 | Top | 13-37 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UCONN@CIN to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Huskies versus the Bearcats in Cincinnati. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain, with winds as high as 24 km/h.
- The total for Saturday's game is far higher than it was in any of the previous 10 meetings between these two teams.
- Cincinnati has played six straight unders versus teams with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-24-15 |
Wisconsin -5 v. Illinois | | 24-13 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on Wisconsin
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Badgers versus the Illini in Champaigne Illinois. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- While there is just a 20% chance of rain, the forecast calls for high winds of up to 31 km/h.
- Wisconsin ranks 12th nationally in total defense, and has held opponents to an average of 10.9 points per game.
- Taking the passing game away from Illinois will only favor the Badgers, who have a superior defense and should dominante in a game of field position.
Take Wisky.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-24-15 |
Indiana v. Michigan State UNDER 61.5 | Top | 26-52 |
Loss | -106 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@MSU to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Hoosiers versus the Spartans in East Lansing. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 60% chance of rain, with winds as high as 29 km/h. - Michigan State ranks 70th nationally rushing for an average of 156 yards per game. They rely heavily on Connor Cook's arm, which could be neutralized by the wind here today. - The Under is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 home games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-24-15 |
Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 53.5 | Top | 17-41 |
Loss | -109 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on OHIO@BUFF to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Bobcats versus the Bulls in Buffalo. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 70% chance of rain, with winds as high as 34 km/h.
- The Under is 15-7-1 in Bobcats last 23 road games.
- The Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Wisconsin v. Illinois UNDER 45.5 | Top | 24-13 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WISC@ILL to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Badgers versus the Illini in Champaigne Illinois. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- While there is just a 20% chance of rain, the forecast calls for high winds of up to 31 km/h.
- Wisconsin ranks 12th nationally in total defense, and has held opponents to an average of 10.9 points per game.
- The Badgers have played five straight unders, and Illinois has gone under in six of it's last seven home games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-24-15 |
Miami (OH) v. Western Michigan UNDER 56 | Top | 13-35 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on M-OH@WMU to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Red Birds versus the Broncos in Kalamazoo. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of rain, with winds as high as 31 km/h. - The Under is 30-13 in Redhawks last 43 games in October. - Miami-OH ranks 125th nationally in total offense. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Bowling Green v. Kent State UNDER 59 | Top | 48-0 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BGSU@KENT to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Falcons versus the Golden Flashes in Kent. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The weather forecast calls for an 70% chance of rain, with winds as high as 24 km/h. - Falcons quarterback Matt Johnson has thrown for 10 TDs the last two weeks, but that was at home. He had thrown just two TD passes in his last two road games. - The Under is 13-3-1 in Golden Flashes last 17 conference games. Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-24-15 |
Houston v. Central Florida +22 | Top | 59-10 |
Loss | -105 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
This is 10* play on the Central Florida Knights. Anytime time you have an undefeated Top 25 team facing an opponent that is 0-7, you know which way the money is going to go. Of course everyone is lining up to bet the Houston Cougars as an enormous favorite on the road this week. I think it's pretty naive to write off this Knights team though, and I think they can make a game of it. They have played some tough teams during their 0-7 start, and for the most part they have managed to avoid blowout losses. Last week they went on the road at Temple, and held a lead at halftime. Houston on the other hand has been beating up on inferior opponents, in fact their last three wins came against teams with just one conference win between them. They did blow out Tulane, but the margin of victory in wins over SMU and Tulsa wasn't as great as the number for this game. In order to win on the road by four scores, you need to be pretty efficient on both sides of the ball. That's going to be a challenge for the Cougars with so many injuries on both their offensive and defensive lines. After losing three starters for the remainder of the season, the Cougars are holding walk-on tryouts for offensive and defensive linemen this week to plug the holes. Cougars head coach Tom Herman knows he can't take this team lightly, and here is what he was saying earlier in the week: "This is a team that's two years removed from winning the Fiesta Bowl last I checked. They done an excellent job of recruiting throughout the years, have an excellent staff and excellent head coach. "I don't know why they're 0-7. That's not for me to figure out. They also went into (Temple) and had a lead against one of the best teams in our conference." Take UCF. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-24-15 |
Northwestern v. Nebraska UNDER 49.5 | Top | 30-28 |
Loss | -110 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NW@NEB to go UNDER the total.
Paying close attention to the weather is just one of many tools at a handicapper's disposal, and this week it looks like several college football games will be effected by inclement weather. I won't bet on a game based on weather alone, so I am looking for games where several factors combine to give me a significant edge versus the bookmaker.
One of those games will feature the Wildcats versus the Cornhuskers in Lincoln Nebraska. Here are a few things that caught my attention about this game:
- The Wildcats have scored a grand total of 10 points in their last two games, and they rank outside the Top 100 in passing yards as well as points scored.
- Nebraska ranks in the Top 10 nationally in run defense, allowing opponents to average fewer than 100 yards per game on the ground.
- The wind is likely to put a damper on the passing game, as the forecast calls for winds up to 24 km/h.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-22-15 |
California +3.5 v. UCLA | Top | 24-40 |
Loss | -115 | 21 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the California Golden Bears.
The Bears come into tonight's game off a bye week, giving them extra time to rest and prepare coming off an ugly loss to Utah. Jared Goff had the worst game of his career in the loss to the Utes, throwing five picks. They were still right in that game though, trailing by just three points heading into the fourth quarter, eventually losing 30-24.
The Bruins on the other hand were blown off the field in Stanford, losing by a score of 56-35 last Thursday night. They are really banged up on defense, with tackle Eddie Vanderdoes, linebacker Myles Jack and cornerback Fabian Moreau all sidelined by injury.
When these teams played last year, the Bruins won on a late field goal by a score of 36-34. While that was a home game for Cal, it was also Brett Hundley at quarterback for UCLA, and not freshman Josh Rosen. After impressing in his debut, Rosen has really struggled since. He's thrown more interceptions (4) than TDs (3) in his last two home games.
One of those was a 38-23 loss to Arizona State, and the other a 24-23 win over BYU. The Bears have beaten a couple tough opponents on the road already this season, winning at Texas and at Washington. I see the Cal as a team that is healthier, well rested, with a far better quarterback, and I'll take the Bears getting points against a struggling Bruins team.
Take CAL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-22-15 |
Seattle Seahawks -5.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | | 20-3 |
Win | 100 | 67 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
Both the Seahawks and the 49ers are 2-4 heading into this Thursday Night game at Levi's Stadium. While it comes as no surprise that San Francisco has struggled this season, few would have guessed that Seattle would be sitting in this position. The Seahawks have held a lead in the fourth quarter of all four of their losses, but they've been unable to close out games.
It's important to put things in perspective though, as they have lost to three undefeated teams (Green Bay, Cincinnati and Carolina). If they play anything like they did in either of those three games, this game isn't likely to be close. Recent games between these two teams have been pretty one-sided in favor of the Seahawks, who won 19-3 in San Francisco, and 17-7 at home last year.
Colin Kaepernick really struggled in both those games, throwing for a combined 262 yards with no TDs and a pair of INTs. Seattle's defense hasn't been quite as dominant this season as it has in year's past, but they are likely to have a lot more success containing Colin Kaepernick than they were against the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton and Cam Newton.
Jimmy Graham caught a season high eight catches for 140 yards against the Panthers, and that's a good sign moving forward for Seattle's offense. The 49ers are ranked dead last in the NFL in pass defense, and they are the only team in the league allowing over 300 yards per game in the air.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-19-15 |
NY Giants +3.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 7-27 |
Loss | -110 | 179 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New York Giants.
The Eagles are getting a lot of love from the public here at home on Monday night. They are a pretty big favorite when you consider they still have a losing record, and both their wins were aided by turnovers. Last week they beat a pretty bad Saints team, and Drew Brees threw and interception and lot two fumbles. Their only other win came against the Jets, and New York tuned the ball over four times in that game.
Chip Kelly isn't really fooling anybody with this offense, and DeMarco Murray and Sam Bradford have both failed to live up to expectations. Bradford ranks 30th in the NFL with a passer rating of 83.7, while Murray has averaged just 2.7 yards per carry, and has failed to rush for 100 yards in any of his games this season.
Eli Manning is having a great season so far, and he threw for a season high 441 yards and three TDs in a home win over San Francisco last Sunday. He's fortunate to have one of the best receivers in the game in Odell Beckham Jr., who caught 11 passes for 121 yards and a TD in the win over the Niners. He's still listed as questionable for this game with a sore hamstring, but he'll more than likely be able to go.
The Giants own the leagues' top run defense so far this season, allowing only 80 rushing yards per game and a total of just three rushing TDs. If they can stop the Eagles running game, I don't think Philly will be able to take advantage of a below average New York secondary. The Eagles don't exactly have the most talented receiving corps, and they've been plagued by penalties and poor play on the offensive line.
This line looks incredibly inflated, and I like New York's chances of keeping it close, if not winning outright.
Take NYG.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-15 |
New England Patriots v. Indianapolis Colts +10.5 | | 34-27 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Patriots have had their way with the opposition so far this season, and people are starting to believe this team is invincible. As good as they have looked, I don't think it's realistic to expect them to come into Indianapolis and beat the Colts by double digits. While it's true that the Patriots have won each of the last four meetings, and covered the spread in all four of those games, only one of those wins came at Indianapolis.
The Colts came into this season with high expectations, but got off to a terrible start losing their first two games. They've since bounced back to win three straight, and Andrew Luck is back under center after sitting out the last two games with a shoulder injury.
The Pats have a few key injuries, with left tackle Nate Solder done for the season with an elbow injury, and Dante Hightower doubtful with sore ribs. The Colts are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 home games, and I just don't think the Colts are getting enough respect as a home dog in this spot.
Take IND.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. San Francisco 49ers +2 | | 20-25 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on the San Francisco #49ers. The 49ers are not a good football team, and they've lost four straight. At the end of the season, you'll likely be able to count their wins on one hand, but a home game against Baltimore looks like a good spot to back the Niners.
The Ravens are coming off a home loss to Cleveland, and their only win this season came gift-wrapped by the Steelers who shot themselves in the foot in a game that wasn't really even close. The Ravens rallied from a 20-7 third quarter deficit to force overtime, and Justin Tucker won it with a 52 yard field goal.
Le'Veon Bell had a huge game, running for 129 yards and a TD on 22 carries. The Ravens rank 25th in the NFL in total defense, allowing opponents to gain an average of 378 yards per game. San Francisco will likely have similar success pounding the rock with Carlos Hyde, and that might open up some holes for Colin Kaepernick who is coming off his best game of the season. He threw for 262 yards and a pair of TDs, without throwing an INT in a 30-27 loss at New York.
While both teams have lost four of their first five games, the Ravens have lost to Cleveland and Oakland, two teams with losing records. The Niners four losses have all come against teams with a winning record, in fact those four teams have a combined record of 15-5.
Justin Forsett has carried the Ravens offense the last two weeks, running for 271 yards on 48 carries. He injured his ankle against the Browns, and hasn't been able to practice during the week. This is a tough matchup for Forsett, facing a 49ers defense that held Adrian Peterson to just 31 yards in Week 1.
Take SF.
GL, Jesse Schule |
10-18-15 |
Carolina Panthers +7.5 v. Seattle Seahawks | Top | 27-23 |
Win | 100 | 145 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Carolina Panthers.
The Seahawks are a team with a big reputation, but with a record that doesn't match up. They've won only two games this season, and those two opponents have a combined record of 2-8. Even in the games they won, their offense has failed to impress. Russell Wilson isn't getting any pass protection, and he's on pace to be sacked 70 times this season.
Seattle is asked to cover a big number at home against an undefeated Carolina team, and I think they are getting way too much respect from the bookmakers here. The Panthers own the league's best defense against the run, allowing opponents to average just 92 rushing yards per game.
Andy Dalton carved up the Seattle secondary last week, throwing for 331 yards and a pair of TDs on 30-of-44 passing. His top target was TE Tyler Eifert, who caught eight passes for 90 yards and two TDs. Cam Newton knows a thing or two about hooking up with his TE, as Greg Olsen leads the team with 243 receiving yards and a pair of TDs.
With Seattle coming off a tough loss on the road at Cincinnati, and Carolina coming in well rested off their bye week, I expect to see another close game between these two teams.
Take CAR.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-15 |
Arizona Cardinals -165 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | | 13-25 |
Loss | -165 | 121 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals waxed the Lions in Detroit last week, winning 42-17. The Steelers stole a victory on the road at San Diego, but I think they'll struggle at home this week with Mike Vick facing one of the NFL's top defenses.
Vick threw for 203 yards with one TD and an INT on 13-of-26 passing, but LeV'eon Bell picked up the slack running for 111 yards and a TD. Bell might not find many holes in this Arizona defense, that ranks among the best in the NFL versus the run. They are holding opponents to an average of 97 yards rushing per game, and have only allowed two rushing touchdowns so far.
Carson Palmer leads the NFL with 13 TD passes so far, and he's facing a Steelers defense that has been below average this year. Chris Johnson ran for 103 yards on just 11 carries last week, his second game with 100+ yards so far this season. This looks like a tough spot for the Steelers who are coming off a short week following Monday night's game in San Diego.
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-15 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Minnesota Vikings -195 | | 10-16 |
Win | 100 | 83 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The Chiefs have been brutal during a 1-4 start to the season, and things have gone from bad to worse with the news that Jamaal Charles will miss the remainder of the season with a torn ACL. This puts even more pressure on Alex Smith, who has been taking a beating all year behind a struggling offensive line. He threw for 180 yards and a TD on 16-of-30 passing last week, and it wasn't good enough as the Chiefs lost at home to the Bears.
The Vikings are 2-0 at home, and Adrian Peterson ran for 260 yards and a pair of TDs in those two games. Peterson and the Vikings are coming off a bye week, so they should be well rested and well prepared for this banged up Chiefs team.
Minnesota quarterback Teddy Bridgewater threw for a season high 269 yards in a 23-20 loss at Denver in his last start, and he might have a big day this week, facing a Chiefs secondary that ranks 26th in the NFL against the pass. The Vikings defense has been very solid, ranking 4th in the NFL against the pass, allowing just five TDs while picking off opposing quarterbacks four times during a 2-2 start.
Take MIN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-15 |
Cincinnati Bengals -128 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 34-21 |
Win | 100 | 142 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals rallied to score 17 points in the fourth quarter at home versus the Seahawks last week, winning 27-24 in overtime. Andy Dalton was sharp, throwing for 331 yards and a pair of TDs on 30-of-44 passing. Dalton is having a breakout season for the Bengals, who have been been firing on all cylinders. They catch Buffalo at a good time, as the Bills are banged up, and will be without their starting quarterback.
E.J. Manuel is expected to start in place of Tyrod Taylor, and he hasn't started a game since September of last year, when he threw for 225 yards with a pair of TDs and two INTs in a 23-17 loss to Houston. Sammy Watkins, LeSean McCoy and Percy Harvin are all expected to play despite nagging injuries, but it remains to be seen if they will be effective.
Buffalo's defense has looked vulnerable against the pass, getting lit up by the likes of Tom Brady and Eli Manning already this season. It doesn't get any easier with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green coming to town. Dalton threw for 327 yards and three TDs in a win at Buffalo in 2013, and I expect to see the Bengals offense run away with this game here on Sunday.
Take CIN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-15 |
Miami Dolphins v. Tennessee Titans -133 | Top | 38-10 |
Loss | -133 | 142 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Tennessee Titans.
The Dolphins come into Tennessee with a new coach, and off a bye week after their loss to the Jets in London two weeks ago. The Titans blew a 10-point lead at home against Buffalo last week, and they really need a win here at home against Miami.
While they have lost three in a row, there is still a lot of things to be positive about for the Titans. Marcus Mariota has played well, ranking in the top 10 in the NFL in passer rating as a rookie, and the defense has been solid. Tennessee owns the league's top defense against the pass, allowing opponents to average just 167 yards per game in the air.
To say the Dolphins have struggled to run the ball would be an understatement of epic proportions, as they rank 31st in the NFL averaging just 69 yards rushing per game. Only Detroit is worse, but at least the Lions have a pair of rushing TDs. The Dolphins haven't been able to punch one in yet this season.
Relying on Ryan Tannehill's arm for offense would appear to be a risky proposition, as he's thrown five INTs in his last two starts. He was picked off three times in a 37-3 loss the last time he faced these Titans.
Take TEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-17-15 |
Arizona State v. Utah -5 | | 18-34 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Utah Utes.
The Utah Utes have done what no other team in the country have come anywhere close to doing, and that is beating Michigan. At the time it didn't seem very significant, but at this point it's a signature win that could put them in the playoff picture. They host conference rivals Arizona State on Saturday night, in a game that has revenge written all over it. The Utes lost last season at Arizona State by a score of 19-16 in overtime.
With windy and rainy conditions on the forecast for Saturday night in Salt Lake City, we could see another defensive battle here this time around. That would seem to play into the hands of the home team, who have one of the top running backs in the country. Devontae Booker ran for 222 yards and two TDs at home versus California last week.
Utah also picked off California's stud quarterback Jared Goff five times, giving them 12 interceptions total this season, tied for second in the country. The Sun Devils are 0-9 all time on the road versus Top 5 teams, and they've gone under in five of their last six overall.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-17-15 |
Arizona State v. Utah UNDER 56 | Top | 18-34 |
Win | 100 | 46 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on AZST@UTAH to go UNDER the total.
The Utah Utes have done what no other team in the country have come anywhere close to doing, and that is beating Michigan. At the time it didn't seem very significant, but at this point it's a signature win that could put them in the playoff picture. They host conference rivals Arizona State on Saturday night, in a game that has revenge written all over it. The Utes lost last season at Arizona State by a score of 19-16 in overtime.
With windy and rainy conditions on the forecast for Saturday night in Salt Lake City, we could see another defensive battle here this time around. That would seem to play into the hands of the home team, who have one of the top running backs in the country. Devontae Booker ran for 222 yards and two TDs at home versus California last week.
Utah also picked off California's stud quarterback Jared Goff five times, giving them 12 interceptions total this season, tied for second in the country. The Sun Devils are 0-9 all time on the road versus Top 5 teams, and they've gone under in five of their last six overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-17-15 |
USC +7 v. Notre Dame | Top | 31-41 |
Loss | -120 | 90 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the USC Trojans.
The Trojans are in a familiar spot heading into this week's game at South Bend, with an interim head coach replacing Steve Sarkasian. They fired Lane Kiffin after a 3-2 start in 2013, and then went on to win six of their next seven games. The one loss during that span came at Notre Dame by a score of 14-10. With public money fading the Trojans after the Sarkasian firing, I think there is value on the dog here.
Notre Dame has already lost several key players to injury, most notably starting quarterback Malik Zaire. They lost 49-14 at USC last year, and the Trojans piled up 577 total yards in the victory. Cody Kessler threw six TD passes in that game, and he's been pretty darn good so far this season, throwing for just shy of 1500 yards with 15 TDs and three picks in five games.
Sark was an alcoholic, who wasn't doing his job to the best of his abilities. It's highly likely that cutting him loose will only help this team that came into the season as the favorite to win the PAC12. I think the Irish will be lucky to win this game outright, never mind cover a bunch of points.
Take USC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-17-15 |
Florida +9.5 v. LSU | Top | 28-35 |
Win | 100 | 90 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Florida Gators.
The Gators are a big underdog on the road at Baton Rouge this week, and I think there has been a bit of an overreaction to the suspension of starting quarterback Will Grier. There is no doubt that Grier was having a fantastic season, and he will be missed. It's not like they are handing the ball to an inexperienced quarterback though, as Treon Harris threw for 225 yards and a pair of TDs in a victory in Week 1, and he threw for over 1000 yards with nine TDs and four INTs as a starter last year. He's likely the better of the two quarterbacks who share the same last name, as Brandon Harris has just four TD passes this season for LSU.
The glaring fact that stands out to me... is that the Tigers haven't played anybody. They've beaten South Carolina, Auburn and Mississippi State, and those teams have a combined record of 2-8 in conference play. Leonard Fournette has been running wild, but we'll see how he fares against an elite defense in this game. The Gators have only allowed three rushing TDs all year, holding the opposition to an SEC best 3.1 yards per carry.
The Gators have covered the spread in five of their last seven trips to Baton Rouge, and I think LSU is going to struggle to cover this inflated number.
Take FLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-17-15 |
Michigan State +7 v. Michigan | Top | 27-23 |
Win | 100 | 125 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Michigan State Spartans.
The Wolverines are coming off three straight shutout wins, out-scoring opponents 97-0 in those games. Due to their recent success, they come into this Saturday's home game versus the Spartans as a big favorite. Michigan State has won six of the last seven meetings between the two teams, and they covered the spread in all seven of those games.
The visitors have a huge edge when it comes to the quarterback position, with senior Connor Cook who has thrown for 1334 yards and a dozen TDs with just two picks. Michigan's quarterback Jake Rudock has been picked off six times while throwing just five TD passes this season.
The Wolverines will likely lean on their running game, but their leading rusher DeV'eon Smith only ran for 59 yards on eight carries last week, playing with an ankle injury. Smith struggled in last year's loss to the Spartans, managing just 39 yards on 11 carries.
Coming off a string of uninspiring wins over inferior opponents, the Spartans feel they have something to prove here in this game: "Really doesn't take much to have a chip on our shoulder," Cook said. "Doesn't matter if we're the favorite, if we're the underdog, if we're favored by three touchdowns or we're underestimated by three touchdowns."
Take MSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-17-15 |
Alabama v. Texas A&M +4 | Top | 41-23 |
Loss | -102 | 33 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The undefeated Aggies are a home dog to Alabama on Saturday, and this looks like a very dangerous spot for Nick Saban's squad. The Crimson Tide secondary was already exposed in a home loss to Ole Miss, allowing Chad Kelly to throw for 341 yards and three TDs.
The other glaring weakness for Alabama is at quarterback, where Jake Coker has really struggled. He threw a pair of interceptions in a 27-14 home win over Arkansas last week, and he's going to be under fire all day here at College Station.
The Aggies have the SEC's best pass rush, with 19 sacks in just five games. They also lead the SEC in total offense averaging over 480 yards per game. Kevin Sumlin has the advantage of coming off a bye week, giving him extra time to prepare for what could be the game that makes or break the Aggies season.
Alabama really struggled on offense last week against the Razorbacks, scoring just three points in the first half. Kicker Adam Griffith missed a pair of chip shot field goals, and he's only converted on 6-of-12 attempts this season.
The Aggies look great getting points at home.
Take TAM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-15-15 |
UCLA v. Stanford -5.5 | | 35-56 |
Win | 100 | 85 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
The UCLA Bruins are in pretty rough shape coming into this road game versus Stanford, with a struggling freshman quarterback and their star linebacker sidelined for the remainder of the season. Josh Rosen impressed in his season debut, throwing for 351 yards and three TDs in a win over Virginia. He's since thrown six touchdown passes and five interceptions while averaging 223 yards over his next four starts. This will be by far his toughest test, on the road against one of the PAC12's toughest defenses, against a team that UCLA has lost seven in a row against since 2009. The Cardinal have been dominant in wins over Oregon State, Arizona and USC, winning those games by an average margin of 22 points. It's been nine years since UCLA last won at Stanford, and I don't like their chances tonight.
Take STAN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-15-15 |
Atlanta Falcons -185 v. New Orleans Saints | | 21-31 |
Loss | -185 | 66 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons needed a little luck to get past the Redskins last week, but a pick six in overtime helped them escape with a 25-19 win, moving to 5-0. Devonta Freeman had a big game, running for 153 yards and a TD on 27 carries. He should find plenty of running room here tonight, facing a Saints defense that ranks second to last in the NFL, allowing 135 rushing yards per game.
New Orleans is coming off a blowout loss at Philly, losing by a score of 39-17. Perhaps even more concerning than the final score, was the inability to protect Drew Brees, as he was sacked five times in the loss. Brees has already missed a game after taking a big hit against Tampa, which caused him to suffer a shoulder injury.
Matt Ryan didn't look sharp against the Redskins, but he should have more success against this leaky Saints secondary. He threw for 322 yards and a TD on 30-of-40 passing in a win at New Orleans last December. He really lit up the Saints at home last year, throwing for 448 yards and three TDs in a 37-34 win.
The Saints have failed to cover in six of their last seven home games, and an upset seems unlikely here on Thursday night.
Take ATL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-12-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. San Diego Chargers -170 | | 24-20 |
Loss | -170 | 140 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the San Diego Chargers.
The Steelers are coming off a disturbing loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week, blowing a late lead after they failed to run out the clock. Mike Vick wasn't asked to do much, throwing for 124 yards and a TD on 19-of-26 passing. He was sacked four times, and he missed a few open targets. Pittsburgh leaned on LeVeon Bell, who ran for 129 yards and a TD.
The Chargers moved to 2-2 with a 30-27 win over the Browns, and Phillip Rivers threw for 358 yards and three TDs. Rivers is having a phenomenal season so far, and Vick is going to have a hell of a time trying to match serves with one of the league's better quarterbacks. Rivers will have another weapon at his disposal this week, with TE Antonio Gates returning from suspension.
The Chargers haven't had as much success with their running game, but Melvin Gordon should find plenty of room against this leaky Steelers defense. Justin Forsett ran for 150 yards last week in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers have allowed opponents to average 113 yards rushing per game. I expect San Diego to get it's fair share of points at home, and it's going to be asking too much of Michael Vick to keep up with Phillip Rivers.
Take SD.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-11-15 |
San Francisco 49ers v. NY Giants -6.5 | | 27-30 |
Loss | -110 | 68 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the New York Giants. In case you haven't heard, they are saying the sharp money is on San Francisco plus the points. Well.. if the sharps were always right, the casinos wouldn't be so big and fancy would they. I don't think there is anything sharp about betting on a team that has lost three straight games by a combined 89 points when your getting less than a TD on the road. Now the Niners aren't going to lose by 40 every week, but its hard to imagine them actually winning many games with the team in the situation it is. Colin Kaepernick was sacked six times last week in a home loss to Green Bay, and he's thrown five picks and no touchdowns the last two weeks. If the 49ers could run the ball, that might take some pressure of their struggling quarterback, but their production has declined since Carlos Hyde ran for 168 yards in Week 1. He was held to 20 yards on just eight carries last week. Can he bounce back tonight against a Giants team that currently leads the NFL in run defense allowing just 68 rushing yards per game? Can San Francisco stop Manning and Odell Beckham Jr.? Well it seems like a long shot. No Vernon Davis .. No Ahamad Brooks... might mean No Chance for the 49ers. Take NYG. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-11-15 |
Arizona Cardinals -150 v. Detroit Lions | Top | 42-17 |
Win | 100 | 122 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals suffered their first loss of the season last week at home to the St. Louis Rams, in a game where the bounces didn't go their way. The Cardinals fumbled the opening kickoff, allowing St. Louis to score early, and they were on the back foot for the remainder of the game. They now head out on the road to face the winless Detroit Lions, who got screwed in Seattle.
Carson Palmer has thrown for 300+ yards in three of his four starts this season, with 10 TDs and three INTs. Four of those TDs came in a 48-23 win on the road at Chicago. He threw for 248 yards and a TD in a 25-21 home win over Detroit the last time these teams faced each other, and Arizona has won six straight versus the Lions since 2006.
Matthew Stafford is struggling this season, with just five touchdown passes to go along with five picks. Detroit's inability to run the ball (ranked last in the league in rushing), isn't helping his cause.
The Lions one-dimensional offense is really going to have a tough time moving the ball against an Arizona team that ranks among the best in the NFL in total defense. Only the Carolina Panthers have more interceptions (8) than Arizona (7).
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-11-15 |
Chicago Bears +10.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | | 18-17 |
Win | 100 | 126 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Bears.
The Chiefs are coming off three straight ugly losses, and still they are a double digit favorite at home this week. The Bears on the other hand have a little momentum on their side, as they beat Oakland at home last Sunday. I was also impressed with Chicago's defense in a loss to the Seahawks in Seattle the previous week, as that game was much closer than the scored would suggest.
Jay Cutler isn't a great quarterback, and over the years I have made a small fortune betting against him. He's still capable of lighting up the scoreboard though, and this Chiefs secondary hasn't been able to stop anybody. Kansas City ranks 27th in the NFL, allowing opponents to average 298 passing yards per game.
Alex Smith was sacked five times in last week's loss at Cincinnati, and he's thrown for just one TD and three picks during the Chiefs three game losing streak. He hasn't gotten a lot of help from his offensive line, and that could be an issue here in today's game, as Kansas City has allowed an NFL worst 19 sacks.
Don't be surprised to see the Bears hang around here, keeping this game close.
Take CHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-11-15 |
Cleveland Browns v. Baltimore Ravens -6.5 | | 33-30 |
Loss | -106 | 109 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 3* play on the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens ended a three game losing streak in Pittsburgh last Thursday, and they return home to host the Browns. They've had a few extra days to rest up and prepare for this one, and I think this is a good spot for the home team. Justin Forsett ran the ball 27 times for 150 yards in the win over the Steelers, and he should see plenty of touches at home this week. The Browns have been particularly vulnerable against the run, allowing opponents to average 141 rushing yards per game. Only the Dolphins rank worse. This is nothing new, in fact the Browns ranked dead last in run defense last season, allowing 141.5 rushing yards per game. They have also struggled to contain the Ravens quarterback, as Flacco has thrown 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions in going 13-1 against Cleveland in his career. Take BAL. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-11-15 |
New Orleans Saints v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 49.5 | | 17-39 |
Loss | -108 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on NO@PHI to go UNDER the total. The Saints finally picked up their first win of the season at home to Dallas last week, when Drew Brees found a wide open C.J. Spiller for a game winning touchdown in overtime. Brees has been taking a beating this season behind a banged up offensive line, and those issues are still a great concern heading into this game in Philly. He was sacked three times last week, and he was forced to sit out the previous week after suffering a shoulder injury.
The Eagles offense hasn't been able to get off the ground, and poor play on the offensive line has been largely to blame. Sam Bradford was sacked five times for a loss of 37 yards in the loss to the Redskins last week, and they were also backed up 72 yards by penalties.
This game features one of the highest totals on the board this week, and with both of these offenses decimated by injury, I am not sure where all the points are going to come from. Chip Kelly has been on the hot seat after a rough start, and his handling of DeMarco Murray has been one of the more prominent issues. Kelly is as stubborn as they come, but he might just be tempted to lean on the run this week, as New Orleans ranks among the worst in the league in run defense.
Establishing the run would also be a good idea for the Saints, who can't afford to have Drew Brees take any more unnecessary hits. Mark Ingram ran for 77 yards on 17 carries last week, and he and C.J. Spiller could get plenty of touches here on the road.
The Eagles haven't gone over the total yet this season, and yet bettors are still lining up to bet the over, resulting in an inflated number.
Take UNDER.
GL
Jesse Schule |
10-11-15 |
Seattle Seahawks v. Cincinnati Bengals -145 | Top | 24-27 |
Win | 100 | 119 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Seahawks were only one botched call away from starting the season 1-3. If the referees had of correctly ruled the "intentional bat" in the endzone in the dying seconds of Monday Night's game, the Lions would have had 1st and goal at the 1 yard line, and would have most likely won the game.
Now the Seahawks are still considered a contender, and their defense has played well in back to back wins. They aren't going to go very far unless they can turn around their struggling offense though, and missing their go-to guy Marshawn Lynch isn't going to help this week. Russell Wilson can't get anything going behind this leaky offensive line, and he was sacked six times against the Lions.
The Hawks are facing a Cincinnati team that is still undefeated, and has a record of 16-2-1 in it's last 19 home games. Only the New England Patriots are averaging more yards per game than the Bengals, who also rank among the league leaders in total defense.
Andy Dalton has thrown for 1,187 yards with nine TDs and just one INT, and he's having a real breakout year. The Bengals are 17-5-1 ATS in their last 23 home games, and they should be able to beat a Seattle team that is still winless on the road.
Take CIN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-10-15 |
Miami (Fla) v. Florida State -7 | Top | 24-29 |
Loss | -105 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on FSU 1st Half. The Seminoles host a struggling Miami Hurricanes team this Saturday, and Florida State is only asked to cover a seven point spread. While these teams are bitter rivals, I just don't see Miami coming away with a positive result on the road against a superior team with a solid defense. The Canes are coming off a double digit loss at Cincinnati, and they nearly blew a big lead at home against a pretty average Nebraska team. They've lost five straight against Florida State, and they were a double digit dog in each of their last two visits to Talahassee. Everett Golson has thrown for a modest 786 yards during a 4-0 start, but he has thrown for seven touchdowns and hasn't turned the ball over once. If he can continue to protect the football, the Noles will be in good shape at home against the Canes. Take FSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-10-15 |
Florida -195 v. Missouri | | 21-3 |
Win | 100 | 128 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Florida Gators.
The Gators didn't just beat Ole Miss last week, they dominated the Rebels holding them to just three points in the first three quarters in a 38-10 win in The Swamp. They are on the road at Missouri this Saturday, taking on a Tigers team that hasn't impressed during a 4-1 start. The Tigers lost to Kentucky, and wins over Arkansas State and Connecticut came by a combined 10 points. They will try to slow down the red hot Will Grier, who had his coming out party last week throwing for 271 yards and four TDs against the SEC's best defense. The Tigers benched starting quarterback Maty Mauk at home against South Carolina last week, but freshman Drew Lock had a decent game throwing for a modest 136 yards and two TDs. He's going to be under a considerable amount of pressure against this Florida defense, and I wouldn't want to have my money the Tigers with a freshman quarterback under center. The Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games, and I like Florida to edge out a pretty average Missouri team here.
Take FLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-10-15 |
Oklahoma State +7 v. West Virginia | | 33-26 |
Win | 100 | 88 h 6 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Oklahoma State #Cowboys. The Cowboys are sitting at the top of the BIG12 Conference with a 5-0 record, coming off back to back wins over Kansas State and Texas. They still don’t get a lot of respect, coming into this week’s game at West Virginia as a seven point dog. Quarterback Mason Rudolph threw for a season high 437 yards with three TDs in the win over Kansas State, and he should get some help with a couple of key players returning to the lineup this week. Junior running backs Chris Carson and Rennie Childs didn’t play last week against the Wildcats, and they were missed, as the Cowboys ran for only 49 yards. They are both ready to return for this week’s game at Morgantown.
West Virginia's unbeaten run came to an end in Oklahoma, and quarterback Skyler Howard had a rough game, throwing for 171 yards with one TD and three INTs on 17-of-32 passing. They might be expected to bounce back at home, but I am not convinced they should be asked to cover a seven point spread against an opponent that currently owns the top defense in the BIG12 Conference. Historically they have been a bad bet at home against tough opposition, going 5-18 ATS in their last 23 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Take OKST.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-10-15 |
Arkansas v. Alabama -16 | | 14-27 |
Loss | -110 | 112 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Alabama Crimson Tide.
Alabama shocked the home favorite Georgia in Athens last week, beating the Bulldogs by a score of 38-10. They return home to host the Arkansas Razorbacks this Saturday, and having already been beaten at home this season, I expect to see no complacency from the Tide here this week. If either team is to suffer a let down, I would suggest that it's the visitors who are the more likely of the two. The Razorbacks upset the Vols in Tennessee last week, ending a three game losing streak. They ran for 275 yards and a pair of TDs against Tennessee, but it's unlikely they'll be able to run the ball with the same success in Tuscaloosa. The Razorbacks were shutout, losing 52-0 in their last game at Alabama, and they've been out-scored 118-13 while losing their last three versus the Tide.
Take BAMA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-10-15 |
Georgia -145 v. Tennessee | | 31-38 |
Loss | -145 | 124 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Georgia Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs appeared to be on the fast track to an SEC title, all they had to do was beat Alabama at home last Saturday. It proved to be too much to ask, and that game was over before it even got started. They try to bounce back this week on the road against Tennessee, and I like their chances against a young team that has been a big bust in 2015. While Georgia is still a contender, the Vols have already lost three games, two of those defeats coming at home. The Razorbacks ripped through the Tennessee defense, running for 275 yards and a pair of TDs. The Vols will have their hands full trying to contain Nick Chubb this week. The Heisman candidate has run for 745 yards and seven TDs so far this season, and he still managed to pick up a respectable 146 yards an a TD in a losing effort versus Alabama last week. The Bulldogs have won five straight versus Tennessee since 2010, and the Volunteers are 5-18-1 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Take UGA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-10-15 |
Georgia Tech v. Clemson -6.5 | | 24-43 |
Win | 100 | 103 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Clemson Tigers.
The 24-22 win over Notre Dame was far more impressive that it looks at first glance. The Tigers shut down the Irish through the first three quarters, and they held running back C.J. Prosise to 50 yards on 15 carries. They eventually stopped the Irish on a two-point conversion try that ended a furious 4th quarter rally.
Clemson will host the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets this week, and coming off a big win over the Irish, some might think this is a let down spot. I don't think we'll see any such thing from Clemson though, as they've had this game circled on the calendar since the pre-season. The Yellow Jackets beat them badly last year, setting up an opportunity for a bit of revenge this time around.
With Deshaun Watson battling injury, it was Cole Stoudt that started at quarterback in last year's loss, and he completed just 3-of-11 attempts, throwing three picks. Watson is healthy this time around, and he's had a solid season so far, throwing for 738 yards and nine TDs. He also poses a dual threat in the running game, and he ran in a touchdown in last week's game against the Irish.
Clemson finished last season with the top ranked defense in the country, and they aren't far off so far this year. I don't like the Yellow Jackets chances of running their Triple-Option on the road here in Clemson. They didn't have a single rushing TD in last year's game, and half of their points came on INT returns. Clemson has won and covered three straight at home versus Georgia Tech.
Take CLEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-10-15 |
Wisconsin +2.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 23-21 |
Win | 100 | 124 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Wisconsin Badgers.
It's easy to be down on the Badgers after they lost at home to Iowa last week, and Joel Stave is taking a lot of heat after a terrible performance. The Badgers senior quarterback had his worst game of the season, throwing a pair of interceptions and failing to throw a TD pass for the first time this season. He had played pretty well this season before he ran into the Hawkeyes stingy defense that ranks 15th nationally in points allowed. He should be able to bounce back this week against a Nebraska defense that has the worst pass defense in the FBS, allowing 354 yards per game.
The Cornhuskers are coming off another brutal last second loss at Illinois, as they gave up a last second Hail Mary touchdown for the second time this season. The Badgers have won three of four versus Nebraska since 2011, and all of those victories were blowouts. Nebraska has played three Power 5 teams, losing all three of those games. Two of those losses came at home, and they looked pretty bad in all three games. Wisconsin's two losses came to opponents with a combined record of 9-1.
Take WISC.
GL,
Jesse Schule. |
10-10-15 |
Iowa State +12 v. Texas Tech | Top | 31-66 |
Loss | -106 | 124 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Iowa State Cyclones.
The Texas Tech Red Raiders nearly shocked the country with an upset win over the TCU Horned Frogs two weeks ago, but a last minute touchdown allowed TCU to escape with the victory. They were blown out by Baylor last week, and now they return home to host conference rivals Iowa State.
I don't think Texas Tech has any business being a double-digit favorite here, even though they can score points in a hurry. Their defense is brutal, and they are likely going to struggle to stop the Cyclones from scoring.
The Red Raiders have won three straight meetings in this series, but the average margin of victory in those games was just seven points. That includes a home win by a score of 42-35 back in 2013.
The Cyclones have an experienced senior quarterback in Sam Richardson, and Kliff Kingsbury knows it will be a challenge to contain him: "Anytime you have a senior quarterback that's played a lot, that's going to give you problems," the third-year coach said. "He can run well, he throws well, so it'll be a good challenge for us."
Richardson has thrown for over 1000 yards with seven TDs and three picks while going 2-2 to start the season. Their two losses came against teams with a combined record of 9-0 (Toldedo and Iowa).
Take ISU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-10-15 |
Northwestern +8 v. Michigan | Top | 0-38 |
Loss | -105 | 103 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Northwestern Wildcats.
There is a ton of hype surrounding Jim Harbaugh's Michigan Wolverines, and to their credit they are coming off back to back shutouts, and they have won four straight. I still think you would have to be certifiable to take them as a double-digit dog against an undefeated Northwestern team this week, especially after they lost their best player on defense (Mario Ojemudia).
This game features the two top scoring defenses in the country, and the total for this game is going to be one of the lowest we will see all year. In a game that's expected to see such few points scored, I think Michigan's backers are a little over optimistic that it's going to be their team doing the scoring. After all, if they can score on these Wildcats, they would be doing what the likes of Stanford, Duke and Minnesota all failed to do, as those teams scored a combined 16 points in losses to Northwestern.
The Wolverines have won four straight in this series since 2011, but last year's game was decided by a single point, with Michigan winning 10-9 at Evanston. It really wouldn't surprise anyone to see a similar score in today's game.
Take NW.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-08-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans UNDER 45 | | 27-20 |
Loss | -110 | 32 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on IND@HOU to go UNDER the total.
With or without Andrew Luck, the Colts are likely going to struggle in Houston on Thursday night. The Colts star quarterback has been terrorized by opponents this season, throwing more INTs (7) than touchdowns (5). He was unable to go at home versus the Jaguars, and Matt Hasselbeck threw for 282 yards and a TD in a 16-13 overtime win. Hasselbeck missed practice Tuesday due to illness, and it's still unclear if Luck can shake off a shoulder injury.
The Texans quarterback situation is no better, with Ryan Mallett completing just 12-of-27 passes for 150 yards and an INT in the loss to Atlanta last week. He is expected to start versus the Colts, despite his poor play so far this season. The Texans were hoping to have one of the best defenses in the NFL with stars like J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, but they've struggled to stop the run.
Given the Colts quarterback situation, they might be better off looking to exploit the Texans poor run defense, that is allowing opponents to average over 115 yards per game. The Colts haven't had any success running the ball this season, but Frank Gore might their best option here in Houston.
These two teams have a history of playing low scoring defensive games, with seven of the last nine head to head meetings falling short of the total. The Colts won the most recent meeting by a score of 17-10 last December.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-05-15 |
Detroit Lions v. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 43.5 | | 10-13 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on DET@SEA to go UNDER the total.
The Seahawks shutout Chicago 26-0 last week, and despite their 1-2 record, people still consider this team a legitimate contender. I wasn't impressed with the win over the Bears, as once again the offense was limited by poor play by the offensive line. The Bears sacked Russell Wilson four times, and the Seattle offense only scored one touchdown. They kicked four field goals, and Tyler Lockett had a 105 yard kickoff return for a touchdown.
The return of Kam Chancellor seemed to pay immediate dividends, as they held Jimmy Claussen to just 63 yards on 9-of-17 passing last week. The Lions have really struggled on offense during an 0-3 start, and they were held to just 28 rushing yards in a 24-12 home loss to Denver last week. Matthew Stafford has been picked off five times while throwing for five touchdowns in three straight losses.
The Lions have a history of playing low scoring games away from Ford Field, with 10 of their last 12 road games falling short of the number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-15 |
Minnesota Vikings v. Denver Broncos -6.5 | Top | 20-23 |
Loss | -105 | 132 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
After running for 260 yards and two TDs in consecutive home wins, Adrian Peterson comes into this week's game at Denver surrounded by plenty of hype. Peterson poured a little gas on the fire by telling reporters he felt like he could have played in the NFL as a junior in high school. Well I think the Broncos defense is going to make him look like a high school junior this week.
Here is what I said about Denver before Week 1: "I think this Denver team is going to have a different look in 2015. Rather than depending on Peyton Manning to carry the offense with an all out air attack, I expect more of an emphasis on the running game. I also believe they will have one of the league's best defenses with a healthy Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. The Broncos had a whopping 20 sacks on opposing quarterbacks this pre-season." So far Denver's defense has lived up to expectations, ranking 1st overall in the NFL in total defense, limiting opponents to 16.3 points per game. They are allowing an average of just 83 rushing yards per game, and they have 11 sacks during a 3-0 start.
Peyton Manning might be on the downside of his career, but the Hall of Famer still managed to complete 31-of-42 passes for 324 yards and two TDs on the road in Detroit last week. Teddy Bridgewater on the other hand has thrown more INTs (2) than TDs (1). He threw for just 121 yards and an INT on 12-of-23 passing at home against the Chargers last week.
The only thing Denver hasn't done well this year is run the ball, and they might be able to break out at home today against the Vikings 25th ranked run defense.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-15 |
St Louis Rams v. Arizona Cardinals -6.5 | Top | 24-22 |
Loss | -123 | 98 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals are big favorite at home to division rivals St. Louis on Sunday, and at first glance it might look like too many points. I think the Cardinals are for real though, and if they play anything like they have in the first three week, I don't think this game will be all that close. Their defense picked off Colin Kaepernick four times and sacked him twice, while holding the 49ers to a total of 170 yards in a 47-7 blowout win last Sunday. The Rams have dropped two in a row since upsetting the Seahawks in Week 1, and Nick Foles has struggled in those games. The former Eagle threw for 150 yards and a TD on 17-of-32 passing in a loss at Washington in his only start on the road this season. The Cardinals struggled after they lost Carson Palmer in a game against the Rams last year, but the veteran says he's in the best shape of his life, and his numbers back that up. He's thrown for 803 yards with nine TDs and two picks, helping the Cardinals go 3-0 and lead the NFL in scoring. Arizona has won 14 of it's last 16 home games with Palmer at quarterback. The Rams aren't a great road team, and they've struggled against Arizona failing to cover in four straight, and six of their last eight at Glendale. Take Arizona. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-04-15 |
Carolina Panthers -165 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | | 37-23 |
Win | 100 | 143 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Carolina Panthers.
I've never been a fan of Cam Newton, but the Panthers quarterback looks as though he's matured, and he's developed into a real leader for this football team. Nobody is more surprised by the Panthers 3-0 start than me, but watching them play.. I think this team is the real deal.
There's been nothing surprising about the Buccaneers 1-2 start to the season. Here is what I had to say about Jameis Winston before the Bucs Week 1 loss: " They say he only lost one game in his two year career at Florida State, and that would be a lot more impressive if he played in the SEC. The fact is most of those wins came against cupcakes, making his stats in 2014 even more concerning. Winston threw 18 picks last year, the most of any quarterback ranked in the top 40 in passing yards in the FBS."
He completed just 17-of-36 pass attempts for 261 yards with a TD and an INT in the loss to Houston last week. He threw a pair of INTs and fumbled twice in the Bucs Week 1 loss to Tennessee. He's going to be in a tough spot against a Carolina defense that has allowed an NFL best 16 points per game so far.
Winston owns the NFL's worst completion percentage (52.2) and the Bucs were just 1-of-12 on third down last week. Their only win was more the result of blind luck, as New Orleans turned the ball over three times, while Drew Brees played through a shoulder injury.
Take CAR.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-15 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Cincinnati Bengals -192 | | 21-36 |
Win | 100 | 106 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Bengals. The Chiefs looked terrible in a loss to Green Bay on Monday night, and they are in a tough spot heading into Cincinnati to play the 3-0 Bengals on short rest. The Packers exposed the inexperienced Kansas City secondary, and the Bengals are certainly a team that can pile up the yards with their passing game. Andy Dalton threw for 383 yards and three TDs on the road at Baltimore last week. The Bengals are 13-2-1 in their last 16 home games, and they have won three straight against Kansas City dating back to 2008. The Chiefs have allowed an NFL worst 10 TDs on 861 passing yards, and it won't get any easier this Sunday. The return of suspended corner Sean Smith will help, but they lost another starter with Phillip Gaines tearing his ACL last week in Green Bay. Alex Smith has not played well, but his offensive line hasn't done him any favors. He's been sacked 11 times so far this season. The strength of the Kansas City offense is the running game with Jamaal Charles, but Cincinnati's defense has been tough against the run, allowing opponents to average 76 rushing yards per game so far. Take CIN. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-04-15 |
Oakland Raiders -2.5 v. Chicago Bears | | 20-22 |
Loss | -130 | 105 h 27 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on the Oakland #Raiders. The young Raiders have won two of their first three heading into Sunday's game in Chicago, and they will be a slight favorite in this one. The Bears were shutout in Seattle last week, and backup quarterback Jimmy Claussen threw for just 63 yards on 7-of-19 passing. After opening the season with three straight losses, it looks like the Bears are already thinking about a rebuild. They dealt veteran defenders Jon Bostic and Jared Allen this week, and that has people speculating about pending free agents Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery.
I think it's only a matter of time before this Chicago team starts drawing comparisons to a heavy armored fighting vehicle carrying guns and moving on a continuous articulated metal track. In other words, their motivation to actually win games moving forward may be a little dubious.
Oakland on the other hand has an exciting offense led by Derek Carr, who has passed for 726 yards with five TDs and just one INT during a 2-1 start. He has a talented young receiving corps with rookie Amari Cooper opposite Michael Crabtree. Latavius Murray ran for 139 yards and a TD in last weeks win over Cleveland, and he's averaging just under five yards per carry on the season.
The defense is still a work in progress, allowing opponents to average an NFL worst 28.7 points on 414 yards per game. Their strength is a ferocious pass rush, and they sacked Josh McCown five times in Cleveland last week. That's bad news for Jimmy Claussen, as Bears quarterbacks haven't enjoyed much in the way of pass protection in recent seasons.
Take OAK.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-15 |
Oakland Raiders v. Chicago Bears OVER 44 | Top | 20-22 |
Loss | -110 | 129 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OAK@CHI to go OVER the total. The young Raiders have won two of their first three heading into Sunday's game in Chicago, and they will be a slight favorite in this one. The Bears were shutout in Seattle last week, and backup quarterback Jimmy Claussen threw for just 63 yards on 7-of-19 passing. After opening the season with three straight losses, it looks like the Bears are already thinking about a rebuild. They dealt veteran defenders Jon Bostic and Jared Allen this week, and that has people speculating about pending free agents Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery. I think it's only a matter of time before this Chicago team starts drawing comparisons to a heavy armored fighting vehicle carrying guns and moving on a continuous articulated metal track. In other words, their motivation to actually win games moving forward may be a little dubious. Oakland on the other hand has an exciting offense led by Derek Carr, who has passed for 726 yards with five TDs and just one INT during a 2-1 start. He has a talented young receiving corps with rookie Amari Cooper opposite Michael Crabtree. Latavius Murray ran for 139 yards and a TD in last weeks win over Cleveland, and he's averaging just under five yards per carry on the season. The defense is still a work in progress, allowing opponents to average an NFL worst 28.7 points on 414 yards per game. Their strength is a ferocious pass rush, and they sacked Josh McCown five times in Cleveland last week. That's bad news for Jimmy Claussen, as Bears quarterbacks haven't enjoyed much in the way of pass protection in recent seasons. The Bears have gone over in eight of their last nine versus teams with a winning record.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-15 |
NY Jets v. Miami Dolphins UNDER 42 | Top | 27-14 |
Win | 100 | 140 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NYJ@MIA to go UNDER the total.
The Jets have won two of three heading into this week's game in London, and their loss to the Eagles last week was a result of a combination of bad luck and poor execution on offense. They face a Miami team that is coming off back to back embarrassing losses. These teams are similar is style, as they both play a conservative style leaning on their defense. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games, with seven of the last nine in this series falling short of the total. Both these teams were terrible on offense last week, as Ryan Fitzpatrick and Ryan Tannehill each threw three picks. I'm expecting both teams to continue to struggle moving the ball here in England, and we should see another defensive battle at Wembley.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-15 |
Notre Dame v. Clemson -2 | Top | 22-24 |
Push | 0 | 134 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Clemson Tigers.
The Irish have managed to remain undefeated and stay ranked in the Top 10 despite losing their starting quarterback Malik Zaire and running back Tarean Folston. This will be their toughest test by far, and I can't seem them hanging with the Tigers at Death Valley.
After finishing first in the country in total defense in 2014, the Tigers are currently ranked 4th in yards allowed this season. Clemson has the advantage of additional rest coming off a Thursday night game last week at Louisville. The Tigers should be well rested and well prepared for this "must win" game for both teams. The winner will be a playoff contender, while the loser will likely drop out of the playoff picture.
Notre Dame is 2-5 on the road versus ranked opponents during the Brian Kelly era, and they narrowly avoided suffering a sixth straight road loss at Virginia two weeks ago. The Tigers are 41-6 at home in seven seasons under Dabo Swinney, winning 11 straight. Deshaun Watson has completed 77 percent of his passes for 442 yards with five TDs and just one pick in two home games this year. The Irish have been doing a lot of talking on Twitter ahead of this game, and Clemson safety Jaron Kearse took exception: "They obviously don't know what we do down here in Death Valley," Kearse said.
Take CLEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-15 |
Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 53.5 | Top | 22-24 |
Win | 100 | 34 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ND@CLEM to go UNDER the total.
The Irish have managed to remain undefeated and stay ranked in the Top 10 despite losing their starting quarterback Malik Zaire and running back Tarean Folston. This will be their toughest test by far, and it won't be easy hanging with the Tigers at Death Valley.
After finishing first in the country in total defense in 2014, the Tigers are currently ranked 4th in yards allowed this season. Clemson has the advantage of additional rest coming off a Thursday night game last week at Louisville. The Tigers should be well rested and well prepared for this "must win" game for both teams. The winner will be a playoff contender, while the loser will likely drop out of the playoff picture.
The weather conditions could play a role in this game, as the forecast is for heavy rain and wind in Clemson on Saturday night. That will limit both teams in the passing game, forcing them to lean on the run.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-15 |
Mississippi State v. Texas A&M -5.5 | | 17-30 |
Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies are 4-0, and they host the 3-1 Mississippi State Bulldogs at College Station on Saturday. The Bulldogs are likely going to struggle against the SEC's toughest pass rush, and I expect to see the Aggies avenge last year's loss at Mississippi State. Kyle Allen is playing well at quarterback for A&M, and Christian Kirk is leading the SEC with 442 receiving yards and four TDs so far. He's also dangerous on special teams, and the Bulldogs are going to have a tough time containing him. While the Bulldogs managed to win on the road at Auburn last week, a second consecutive road win versus a conference rival seems extremely unlikely here against much stiffer competition.
Take A&M.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-15 |
Arkansas v. Tennessee -6.5 | Top | 24-20 |
Loss | -110 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Tennessee Volunteers.
The Vols are 2-2, and they've made some costly errors blowing leads in each of their two losses. Let's be realistic though, both teams they lost two are undefeated, and ranked in the Top 25. They led Oklahoma by a score of 17-0 at halftime, before Baker Mayfield led an impressive comeback for the Sooners. The Arkansas Razorbacks aren't in the same league as Florida and Oklahoma, and Brando Allen isn't likely to engineer any game winning drives on the road in conference play. The home team has covered the spread in five of the last six meetings between these two teams, and I expect that trend to continue here on Saturday.
Take TENN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-15 |
Bowling Green v. Buffalo UNDER 67.5 | | 28-22 |
Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BGRN@BUFF to go UNDER the total.
The 2-2 Buffalo Bulls will be a big underdog at home to Bowling Green this Saturday, mostly because the Falcons quarterback leads the nation in passing with 1760 yards. Matt Johnson may not be able to air it out as often this week, with the weather forecast in Buffalo calling for heavy rain and wind during the game. The Falcons have won four straight versus Buffalo, but the last three of those game fell well short of the total. Neither of these two teams have played a lot of high scoring games in October, with the Falcons going under in 14 of 17, and the Bulls falling short of the number in seven of their last 10 in October.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule. |
10-03-15 |
Alabama v. Georgia -130 | Top | 38-10 |
Loss | -130 | 84 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Georgia Bulldogs.
Greyson Lambert had himself a day in the win over South Carolina two weeks ago, completing 24-of-25 passes for 330 yards and three TDs. His 96 percent completion percentage set a new NCAA single game record. He followed that up by completing 90 percent of his passes for 146 yards and two TDs last week.
The Bulldogs had an easy game this week against the Southern Jaguars, before a marquee clash at home with Alabama this Saturday. Georgia is still outside of the playoff picture in all the polls, but a win at home over Alabama could propel them all the way to the top. If they can get past the Tide, the rest of their schedule looks very manageable.
Alabama has looked vulnerable, with a couple of struggling quarterbacks and a secondary that has been exposed. Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave threw for 228 yards and a pair of TDs in a loss at Tuscaloosa in Week 1, more than he totaled in wins over Troy and Hawaii the last two weeks. Chad Kelly lit up the Alabama secondary for 341 yards and three TDs.
Jake Coker has had trouble protecting the football, throwing a pair of INTs in the loss to Ole Miss, and four over the last three weeks. Playing on the road at Georgia is no easy task, and the Tide have failed to cover in four of their last five against the Bulldogs.
The last time these teams met was the SEC Championship Game in 2012, and Alabama rallied to score a late TD to come from behind and win 32-28. That was a much better Alabama team with a much better quarterback. I don't like Jake Coker's chances of engineering a game winning drive on the road in Athens.
Take UGA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-15 |
Texas Tech v. Baylor UNDER 89 | Top | 35-63 |
Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TTU@BAY to go UNDER the total.
The bookmakers are expecting a shootout in Texas this Saturday, as the total in the Texas Tech versus Baylor game is said to be the highest in college football history. Both these teams play a fast pace offensive style, and they have a history of playing high scoring games. Each of the last five meetings have gone over the total, with both teams scoring a ridiculous amount of points. That has caused the bookmakers to open with a total of 85.5, which the public has already bet up significantly. The last time I saw a total with this much hype was when Baylor played Oklahoma State in December of 2012, and that game ended with Baylor winning 41-34 (well below the expected total).
In order for these teams to combine to score 90+ points, we need a lot of things to go right for both of these offenses. It doesn't take much to slow the pace down. It could be penalties, injuries, turnovers, and all of a sudden 10-15 minutes has gone by and there haven't been any points scored. The Red Raiders starting quarterback Pat Mahomes was injured in the loss to TCU, and he wore a brace on his knee while finishing that game. The injury limited his mobility, and the Red Raiders were forced into running the ball a little more than they usually do. The word on the street is that Mahomes will be able to play, but if he's not able to do everything he normally does, that has the potential to slow the pace of the Texas Tech offense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-15 |
Ohio -140 v. Akron | | 14-12 |
Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Ohio Bobcats.
The 3-1 Bobcats will be on the road at 2-2 Akron, and I like the visitors to bounce back after a tough road loss to Minnesota. They lost last week's game in the finale minute when the Gophers scored a TD with 30 seconds left on the clock to go ahead 27-24. Derrius Vick threw for 194 yards and a pair of TDs in the loss, and A.J. Oullette ran for 59 yards and a TD on just 12 carries. Ohio has won seven straight versus the Zips, covering the spread in six of those seven games. The Bobcats are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, while the Zips are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Take Ohio.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-15 |
Texas +15 v. TCU | | 7-50 |
Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Texas Longhorns.
I've been saying it since Week 1 ... "TCU is a Fraud!" - The Horned Frogs narrowly escaped with a 55-52 win over Texas Tech last week, needing a miraculous TD catch on a tipped pass with 23 seconds left on the clock. A week earlier they beat the SMU Mustangs by a score of 56-37 at home. Their defense is in complete disarray with several starters sidelined. In fact they don't have a single player left from the defense they fielded in last year's Bowl Game win over Ole Miss.
Texas hasn't exactly impressed either, losing back to back games to California and Oklahoma State. The margin of victory in those games was slim though, only a combined four points. The Longhorns have showed the ability to put points on the board, with freshman quarterback Jerrod Heard running the offense. He ran for 163 yards and three TDs, and threw for 364 yards in the loss to Cal.
The Longhorns haven't likely forgotten that TCU handed them a 48-10 loss at home last year, and they'll relish this opportunity to get a little revenge on a more vulnerable Horned Frogs team here this Saturday.
Take TEX.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-15 |
West Virginia v. Oklahoma -6.5 | Top | 24-44 |
Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
|