10-25-14 |
Mississippi State -13.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 45-31 |
Win | 100 | 107 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on Mississippi State.
The Kentucky Wildcats were steamrolled on the road at Baton Rouge last week, and they return home to face the #1 ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are 7-0, and one of those wins was a convincing victory at Louisiana State. The Wildcats are 5-0 at home, but none of those wins came against ranked opponents.
So far this season nobody has been able to stop Dak Prescot, and it's hard to imagine that Kentucky will succeed where LSU, Auburn and Texas A&M have failed. Mississippi State has won five straight in this series, covering the spread in four of those five games.
The Wildcats haven't been a good bet coming off a loss, failing to cover in four straight such situations. Making matters tougher this week, the Bulldogs are coming off a bye, giving them added rest and time to prepare for their first game as the nation's #1 ranked team.
The Tigers ran for 333 yards on this Kentucky defense last week, and regardless of home field advantage, it's going to be a tough ask to slow this Bulldogs running game behind a powerful offensive line.
Take MISST
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-24-14 |
BYU v. Boise State UNDER 58 | Top | 30-55 |
Loss | -110 | 16 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BYU@BSU to go UNDER the total.
Last week the Cougars played three solid quarters of football against Nevada, but suffered a complete collapse in the fourth. The Wolfpack rallied for 22 points, winning by a score of 42-35. It was their third straight loss since losing star QB Taysom Hill to a broken leg. The Cougars are expected to get Jamaal Williams back from an ankle injury, and that should be a boost to their running game.
BYU will be on the road at Boise State Friday night, and these two teams have a history of playing closely contested games. Each of the last three meetings have gone under the total, and the last time they played on the Blue Turf, Boise State won 7-6 in September of 2012.
Neither team is as good defensively as they were back in 2012, but the total for tonight's game is much higher than it was then. BYU hasn't gone over the total in any of it's three road games this year, and I expect that trend to continue tonight. Going back even further, they've seen eight of their last 11 road games go under.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-23-14 |
San Diego Chargers v. Denver Broncos OVER 51 | Top | 21-35 |
Win | 100 | 42 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on SD@DEN to go OVER the total.
The Broncos will be looking to avenge a home loss to San Diego in a Thursday night game in Denver last December. The way Peyton Manning has been playing, it's no surprise that most of the money is on the Broncos here. The line opened at -6.5, but closer to game time we see a number of -8.5 at most books.
I think the better bet tonight is on the total, as I expect both these to be airing it out with their passing game. Denver only runs the ball enough to keep opponents honest, while the Chargers might not have a choice. San Diego is without Ryan Matthews and Donald Brown, leaving them with third stringer Branden Oliver. The rookie has had some success, but he might find it tough sledding against Denver's 3rd ranked run defense.
The last three meetings between these two teams have all fallen short of the total. Tonight's total though is at least five points lower than it was in any of those games. The Broncos offense has put up at awful lot of points against some top defenses, scoring 40+ against Arizona an San Francisco in their last two home games.
Denver has seen the total go over in 11 of it's last 13 home games versus teams with a winning record.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-20-14 |
Houston Texans +4 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 23-30 |
Loss | -105 | 186 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans.
The Texans come into Steel Town tonight off back to back losses, but both came in close games against tough opponents. The Steelers have the same 3-3 record as Houston, but their losses have come against the likes of Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Baltimore. None of their three wins this year have come against teams with a winning record (Cleveland, Carolina and Jacksonville).
The Steel Curtain isn't what it used to be, as Pittsburgh's defense ranks in the bottom half of the league allowing opponents to average 111 yards per game. These stats could be a lot worse if they hadn't played such a soft schedule. Of their six games so far, only one of those came against a team that currently has a winning record.
Ben Roethlisberger really struggled in a 31-10 loss to Cleveland last Sunday, completing just 21-of-42 passes for 228 yards with just one TD and an INT. He could be under even more pressure tonight with Jadeveon Clowney is set to make his return to the lineup.
Arian Foster has run for 266 yards and four TDs in his last two games, and he could have a big night against a struggling Steelers defense. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been pretty brutal honestly, but he was able to throw for 212 yards and a TD without any INTs in the loss to the Colts last Thursday, and if he can do that again tonight the Texans will be in good shape.
I wouldn't be surprised if this game comes right down to the wire, but I'll take the visitors getting the points.
Take HOU.
GL, Jesse Schule |
10-19-14 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Denver Broncos -6.5 | Top | 17-42 |
Win | 100 | 114 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Denver Broncos. So the 49ers come into Denver riding a three game winning streak, and they are getting a TD against the spread. That's enough to tempt a lot of people to back San Fran as the dog, but this is a terrible spot for the San Francisco. They come off a Monday night game on the road, only to play again on the road six days later. This isn't just any road game though, it's at Mile High in Denver, against the mighty Broncos. Peyton Manning threw for a career high 479 yards in his last start at home, and that was against a tough Arizona defense. Note that San Francisco's last loss came at the hands of Arizona. Colin Kaepernick had a big game against the Rams, throwing for 343 yards and three TDs, but Denver's defense isn't going to let him sit back in the pocket and pass. He's going to be running for his life, trying to escape from Von Miller (2nd in the NFL in sacks). The 49ers have overcome adversity in recent weeks, playing without several key players on both sides of the ball. This week's game on short rest is a spot where a lack of depth could prove to be costly. I like Denver to win big, with Peyton breaking the TD record. Take DEN. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-19-14 |
NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys -5.5 | Top | 21-31 |
Win | 100 | 146 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. You might think that Dallas is due to suffer a let down after upsetting the Seahawks in Seattle last week, but I don't buy into that theory. If you're worried about a team getting up for this game, it might be the Giants that struggle to recover from a humbling defeat in Philly last Sunday night. Just when you thought Eli Manning was back, the Eagles terrorized the Giants QB, sacking him six times in a 27-0 loss. The New York defense was also shredded for over 200 yards on the ground, with Shady McCoy running for a 149 yards on 22 carries. It doesn't get any easier for the Giants this week, as they'll try to slow the NFL's leading rusher DeMarco Murray. On offense, you have to think the loss of Victor Cruz (gone for the year) is going to take a lot of wind out of their sails. Their running game will also suffer with Rashad Jennings out indefinitely. The recipe for success for this Cowboys team is simple, and until somebody can stop DeMarco Murray, the Ws will continue to pile up in the win column. Take DAL, GL, Jesse Schule |
10-19-14 |
New Orleans Saints v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 23-24 |
Loss | -123 | 142 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Detroit Lions.
With both Jimmy Graham and Calvin Johnson likely to miss this week's game, those injuries sort of cancel each other out. The Lions though haven't been relying on their offense to win football games, it's their defense that ranks #1 against the pass and #2 against the run.
The Saints defense has been well below average all year, and Detroit still has a well balanced attack, even without Megatron. Joique Bell has been a beast in the backfield, and he ran for 74 yards and a TD on 18 carries last week. He'll be splitting snaps with Reggie Bush, who will also pose a threat in the passing game.
The Saints are a much stronger team at home, although they sure didn't look good in a 37-31 OT win over Tampa in their last game. Drew Brees was picked off three times, with just two TDs. Brees threw 39 TD passes last year, but only 12 of those came on the road.
New Orleans has lost six straight on the road in the regular season, and there is absolutely nothing to suggest that they can end that streak this week against a superior Lions team.
Take DET.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-19-14 |
Tennessee Titans v. Washington Redskins -4.5 | Top | 17-19 |
Loss | -110 | 142 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins. Washington will host the struggling Tennessee Titans this Sunday, and the visitors come in with a record of 2-4. That's twice as many wins as the 1-5 Redskins, but let's not read too much into that. The fact is, Washington has been very competitive in four of those five losses, and when they had a chance to face an inferior opponents, they beat the daylights out of Jacksonville, winning 41-10.
This is the same Jacksonville team that the Titans played last week, barely hanging on for a 16-14 win at home. Tennessee isn't sure if starting QB Jake Locker will be healthy enough to play, but it's a bit of a stretch to say he's much better than backup Charlie Whitehurst. In fact Whitehurst has a much better TD to INT ratio at 3-1 opposed to 4-4.
Tennessee has failed to cover the points in six straight versus opponents with a losing record, and they are only getting a handful of points in Washington tonight.
Kirk Cousins has played poorly at times, but he's thrown for over 1500 yards and 10 TDs, that's got the Titans quarterbacks beat by a country mile. Facing a suspect defense, he could have a field day with all his weapons at home this week. I expect the likes of Jackson, Garcon and Morris to put up big numbers. The Skins should win big here.
Take WAS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-19-14 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 0-27 |
Win | 100 | 142 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Colts are on a roll, winners of four in a row. They host the Bengals this Sunday, and Cincy is trending in the other direction. They opened the season 4-0, but have since dropped back to back games to New England and Carolina.
This Bengals team doesn't play well on the road at the best of times, but with Andy Dalton missing two of his top receivers (A.J. Green and Marvin Jones). It's likely to be tough sledding against this Colts defense, that has been far better than anyone expected.
Indianapolis is particularly tough on 3rd down, ranking first in the NFL in opponents conversion rate, completion percentage, QBR etc. They have three INTs and seven sacks on opposing quarterbacks in their last two home games.
The Colts have covered the spread in five straight home games versus teams with a winning record, while Cincy is 1-4 ATS in it's last five road games versus winning teams. All the signs point toward a big win for the home team here in this one.
Take INDY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-14 |
Stanford -162 v. Arizona State | Top | 10-26 |
Loss | -162 | 8 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Stanford Cardinal. The Sun Devils trailed USC by two scores in the final minutes of the fourth quarter in Los Angeles, but a 73 yard TD pass from Mike Bercovici pulled them within two points with just over two minutes to play. They would end up getting the ball back, and on the final play of the game Bercovici converted on a Hail Mary pass to give AZST the 38-34 victory. They could suffer a let down here a couple weeks later, hosting a Stanford team that beat them twice last year. The Cardinal still have the best defense in the country, allowing opponents to average just 10 points per game. "What makes them difficult is they're one of the best teams in the league, one of the most physical and most disciplined," coach Todd Graham said. "They're not going to beat themselves." Both USC and UCLA ran all over the Arizona State defense, with each team racking up more than 220 rushing yards. That doesn't bode well against Stanford, as the Cardinal will try to pound away with the run, and shut them down with their defense. History tells us to back the visitors. Take STAN. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-18-14 |
Notre Dame +11.5 v. Florida State | Top | 27-31 |
Win | 100 | 136 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
I've been waiting all year for a good spot to really unload on a bet against the Seminoles, and tonight's game against Notre Dame sets up a perfect spot to back the underdog. The Irish have played far better football than the Noles all season long, albeit against pretty average opposition. A win at home against Stanford was an impressive result for Notre Dame though, and prior to last week's game versus the Tar Heels, they hadn't allowed an opponent to score 20 points.
It's been a tough week for Famous Jameis, but as of Saturday morning it appears that he's dodged another bullet, and will suit up in spite of the fact that he has a pending hearing regarding an alleged sexual assault, and an investigation into thousands of autographed memorabilia. All this has to take it's toll on the young man, and it's becoming very clear that he's walking on thin ice.
His numbers this season are nowhere near what they were last year, with 11 TDs and five INTs. Notre Dame QB Everett Golson has thrown for five more TDs, and one fewer pick.
The Seminoles have won 22 straight, but three times this year they were close to being upset. They needed a little luck to sneak past Oklahoma State, NC State and Clemson. The Irish should give them at least as much trouble as those three teams, and there's no doubt in my mind that this line is way higher than it should be. Look for a close game here in Tallahassee.
Take ND.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-14 |
Rutgers v. Ohio State -19 | Top | 17-56 |
Win | 100 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 5-1, and they travel to Columbus to take on the 4-1 Buckeyes this week. Should be a close game right? I don't think so!
The Buckeyes are back baby! J.T. Barrett has the Ohio State offense firing on all cylinders. He completed 18-of-23 attempts for 267 yards and four TDs on the road, helping the Buckeyes win by 28 points at Maryland. It was the third straight week that Ohio State scored 50+ points, making it the 5th highest scoring team in the country.
Rutgers has been padding it's record against cupcakes, with unimpressive wins over Howard, Tulane and Michigan. QB Gary Nova really had a rough time at the end of last season, throwing 10 picks in his last five starts. He's only faced one decent defense so far this year, and he was picked of FIVE TIMES in a home loss to Penn State.
Rutgers has lost six straight versus Top 25 times, and they will likely be in way over their heads in Ohio this week.
Take OSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-14 |
Kansas State +8 v. Oklahoma | Top | 31-30 |
Win | 100 | 117 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas State Wildcats.
The Wildcats are 4-1, with their only loss coming in a tight game at home against Auburn by a score of 20-14. They face a tough challenge on the road this week at Oklahoma, but the Sooners offense has been sputtering in recent weeks.
Oklahoma narrowly escaped with a 31-26 home win over Texas last week, and they're being asked to cover a greater number here this week. The Oklahoma defense has been exposed since the beginning of conference play, allowing opponents to average over 342 yards passing per game.
Wildcats QB Jake Waters might be able to take advantage of their struggling secondary, as he's coming off a stellar performance against Texas Tech. Waters completed 24-of-31 passes for 290 yards and four TDs, and added 100+ yards and another TD on the ground. Tyler Lockett also had a big game, catching 12 passes for 125 yards a pair of TDs. The Sooners are going to struggle to silence this dynamic duo, perhaps the most potent 1-2 punch in the Big-12.
While Oklahoma has won five of the last six meetings straight up, they've only covered the spread once during that span. The Wildcats are a stellar 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games versus teams with a winning record.
Take KSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-18-14 |
Iowa +5 v. Maryland | Top | 31-38 |
Loss | -109 | 82 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Maryland will try to pick up the pieces after getting worked over by by the Buckeyes in their last game. It's not going to be easy, hosting the rough and tumble Iowa Hawkeyes. Iowa boasts a Top 20 defense, holding opponents to an average of less than 20 points per game.
It was the Iowa offense that was on full display last week though, as they racked up 207 yards and three TDs on the ground, jumping out to a 28-7 lead in the first quarter. The defense did it's part, picking off Indiana's quarterbacks three times.
The plan was for Iowa to use two quarterbacks, but Jake Rudock had a standout performance throwing for 207 yards and a pair of TDs on 19-27 passing.
Maryland hasn't shown anything to convince me that they should be giving up a handful of points in this game. The Hawkeyes are a strong team on the road, in fact they have covered the spread in eight straight away from home.
Take Iowa.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-16-14 |
NY Jets v. New England Patriots UNDER 45 | Top | 25-27 |
Loss | -115 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NYJ@NE to go UNDER the total.
The Patriots host the Jets on Thursday Night Football, and most would expect this game to be a blowout. A few key injuries for the home team, combined with a forecast calling for wet and windy weather might slow down these offenses though.
The Pats lost their leading rusher Stevan Ridley to a season ending knee injury in the win over Buffalo last week. The defense was really impressive in Buffalo, sacking Bills QB Kyle Orton five times and forcing three turnovers.
It's hard to imagine that Geno Smith and the Jets will have any success offensively here against the Patriots. You get bet that Darelle Revis is going to want to stick it to his former coach, and Smith would be a man man if he attempts any passes in his direction.
New England ranks third overall against the pass, allowing opponents to average just over 200 yards passing per game. We could see both teams forced to run if the rain and wind arrives as forecasted.
We've seen a lot of high scoring games on TNF this season, but I am going to buck that trend here tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-16-14 |
Virginia Tech -1.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 16-21 |
Loss | -110 | 77 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Virginia Tech Hokies.
The Hokies are 4-2, and both their losses came at home in close games that went right down to the wire. They have won both their road games so far, including an upset of the Buckeyes in Ohio. Tonight they will take on the Pittsburgh Panthers at Heinz Field. The Panthers have lost three straight to Iowa, Akron and Virginia.
The line has moved significantly in this game with the news that star RB Marshawn Williams will miss the game with a leg injury. This comes after they lost Shai Mckenzie for the remainder of the season just a week earlier.
Trey Edmunds picked up the slack in the win over North Carolina though, running for 54 yards on just 12 carries. He will likely be their first option tonight, and I see no reason why he can't be successful against a mediocre Pitt defense.
It's the defense that is the Hokies Strength though, and if they play as they did in the win over the Buckeyes, the Panthers will be in big trouble. Pitt's QB Chad Voytik has struggled lately, and he was just 16-of-30 passing for 195 yards with a pair of TDs and an INT in the loss to Virginia.
Take VT.
GL, Jesse Schule |
10-13-14 |
San Francisco 49ers -165 v. St. Louis Rams | Top | 31-17 |
Win | 100 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the San Francisco 49ers. I am no 49ers fan, and I really don't think much of their quarterback Colin Kaepernick, but I have to give credit where credit is due. San Francisco has overcome adversity and injuries on both sides of the ball to win back to back games against very good teams in Philly and Kansas City. They play a Rams team tonight that has a third string quarterback under center, and a defense that ranks 31st overall against the run. San Francisco has had plenty of success running the football, so it seems very likely that they will be able to run all over the Rams who have allowed opponents to average over 150 rushing yards per game. This Rams team isn't a talented squad that can rely on finesse, and they need to dominate with their defense and running game to be successful. Neither of those have been a strong point so far this year though, as they rank last in the NFL with just one sack, and RB Zack Stacy has averaged just 55 yards per game. He's not likely to improve on those numbers tonight, with San Francisco's defense one of the best in the NFL at stopping the run. The 49ers rank 5th overall allowing 77 yards rushing per game. That sounds pretty impressive right? Well it's a lot more impressive when you consider who they have played: DeMarco Murray (leads the NFL in rushing), Lesean McCoy (last season's leading rusher), Jamaal Charles and Matt Forte who finished 2nd and 3rd in rushing last year. I know that these two teams have a spirited history of competitive games as division rivals, but St. Louis lost both meetings last year by double-digits, and there's every reason to expect a similar result this year. Take SF. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-12-14 |
NY Giants +3 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 0-27 |
Loss | -110 | 111 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New York Giants. Before this season started, I bet on the Eagles to win the NFC East. They are currently in a first place tie with the Cowboys, who play on the road in Seattle this week. So I should be pretty pleaded about that bet? Not so much. To be totally honest Philly looks a total fraud. They trailed by double-digits in each of their first three wins, then their offense failed to score a single point on the road in a loss to San Francisco. Last week they opened up a big lead on the Rams, but their defense allowed the rams to score 21 unanswered points to make it interesting in the final minutes. The Giants really seem to have their swagger back, and I think Eli Manning is going to have no trouble marching his offense up and down the field today. Philly's offensive line is banged up, and the pass protection and running game has suffered. These problems aren't going to fix themselves against the Giants, and I think New York will run away with this game. Take NYG. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-12-14 |
Chicago Bears v. Atlanta Falcons -3 | Top | 27-13 |
Loss | -120 | 154 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta played well on the road in New York last week, but came up short in a 30-20 loss to the Giants. The Bears on the other hand didn't play particularly well in a loss to Carolina. Jay Cutler threw for 289 yards and a pair of TDs, but he was picked off twice by the Panthers defense. The Falcons are a Jekyll & Hyde team, dominant at home but not so great on the road. So it comes as no surprise that they are 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road. There are a variety of reasons why this trend should continue here today. The Bears will see a familiar face returning kicks for the Falcons, as former Bear Devin Hester will look to pad his numbers as the leadin kicking returner in the history of the NFL. The Bears have said they play plan to challenge Hester, instead of trying to kick away from him. It could prove to be a fatal mistake. The home team has won and covered four straight in this series, and with Matt Ryan facing off against Jay Cutler, I think the Falcons are in better hands. Take ATL. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-12-14 |
Washington Redskins v. Arizona Cardinals -175 | Top | 20-30 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona went into Denver undefeated, and despite the fact that the final score looked like a blowout, they trailed 24-20 after three quarters. This is one of the NFL's best defenses, and they should be able to hold off the struggling Redskins today. Washington seemed pretty content with losing the Seahawks last week, and head coach Jay Gruden wasn't happy to hear players joking in the locker room after the game. Drew Stanton was knocked out of last week's game in Denver with a concussion, but he's expected to start here against the Redskins. He's facing a Washington defense that has struggled in recent weeks, and they are also a little banged up. Alfred Morris has only picked up 92 yards on 25 carries the last two weeks, and he's got his work cut out for him against Arizona's #4 ranked run defense that is allowing opponents to average just 76 yards per game. The Cardinals have covered four straight against teams with a losing record, and they are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a loss. Take ARI. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-12-14 |
New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +3.5 | Top | 37-22 |
Loss | -123 | 151 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills. It was just a week ago that people were saying New England is finished, Brady doesn't have it anymore, etc. After a big win over the Bengals at Foxboro last Sunday night, it seems that people have forgotten how many problems this team still has. Sure they were able to pull off a victory at home against an overrated Bengals team, but this week they head out on the road to face Buffalo's fierce defense. Tom Brady is apparently hampered by a sprained ankle, although one has to wonder if Bill Belichick is just playing games with the media. I'm sure Brady will start, but whether or not he will finish might be another story. His offensive line hasn't provided much in the way of protection, and the Bills have welcomed opposing QBs with 17 sacks, tied for first in the NFL. Kyle Orton led the Bills to an upset win on the road at Detroit last week, and he completed 30-of-43 attempts for 308 yards and a TD. He'll be back under center today, and at this point he gives Buffalo the best chance to win. The Pats have struggled to defend the run, and I'd expect the Bills to have a big day on the ground with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Take BUF. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-12-14 |
Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins +3.5 | Top | 27-24 |
Win | 100 | 151 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Miami Dolphins. Packer fans have stopped panicking, as Green Bay is coming off consecutive blowout wins the last two weeks. This is no time to R-E-L-A-X though, as a road game at Miami isn't going to be easy. The Packers still rank dead last in the NFL against the run, allowing an average of 163 rushing yards per game. That could be a recipe disaster against a Dolphins team with a power running game coming off a bye week. They could get a boost if Knowshon Moreno returns as expected this Sunday. They are also expecting center Mike Pouncey and safety Reshad Jones to make their season debuts this week. Miami's defense is only allowing 208 yards passing per game, so they might have a shot at cooling off the red hot Aaron Rodgers. Eddie Lacy had a big game against the Vikings, but one game doesn't make a season. He came into last week's game averaging 40 yards per game and just three yards per carry. Most people seem to think that this game is going to be a breeze for the visitors, but it's just not that easy to win on the road in the NFL. This is a particularly tough spot based on Miami coming off the bye and getting healthier than they have been all year. I'll take the points. Take MIA. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-12-14 |
Baltimore Ravens -175 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Top | 48-17 |
Win | 100 | 131 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens couldn't get anything going offensively in a loss to the Colts last week. I expect a better showing from Joe Flacco and Baltimore's offense when they play the Bucs in Tampa today. The Bucs have been brutal, with their only win this season coming in Pittsburgh in a game that they trailed until the final play of the game. Tampa ranks 30th in the NFL against the pass, allowing over 292 yards per game, and their run defense is well below average as well. Tampa is winless at home, with losses to Carolina and St. Louis. If you can't beat the Rams at home, then you know times are tough. Mike Glennon has been far more successful than Josh McCown, but this Baltimore defense figures to be the best he's seen to date. Only the Eagles have turn the ball over more than Tampa, and such sloppy play isn't going to cut it against the Ravens. Take BAL. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-11-14 |
USC -145 v. Arizona | Top | 28-26 |
Win | 100 | 114 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the USC Trojans.
The Arizona Wildcats shocked the college football world with another upset win over Oregon last Thursday. This sets them up for a let down spot at home against USC this week. They beat the Ducks last November, but then went on to lose 58-21 to the Arizona State the following week.
While Arizona is the only undefeated team remaining in the Pac-12, they have had some incredible luck in a few of those games. Their game winning drive against the ducks was stopped with a sack on third-and-8, but a very controversial call for unsportsmanlike conduct game the Wildcats a first down.
Two weeks earlier they trailed 31-13 heading into the fourth quarter versus Cal, but scored 36 points in the final frame, winning on a Hail Mary as time expired. You can't count on getting lucky every week, and this is just a terrible spot for the Wildcats who should be in over their heads against an elite opponent that's hungry to get back into the race for the conference title.
Take USC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-11-14 |
Ole Miss +3.5 v. Texas A&M | Top | 35-20 |
Win | 100 | 104 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
Texas A&M didn't come into this season expecting to be a contender in the SEC, but after a thrilling performance by QB Kenny Hill in an upset win over South Carolina, this team was thrust into the spotlight. The bloom has come off the rose in recent weeks though, as it turns out the Gamecocks no longer represent the elite of the SEC.
The Aggies have struggled the last two weeks against two of the better teams in the conference, but this week they face a Rebels team that might just be the best of the bunch. Mississippi is coming off a home win over Alabama, keeping Blake Sims and Amari Cooper out of the endzone and limiting the Crimson Tide to just 17 points.
This Rebels defense is ranked #2 nationally just behind Stanford, but given the strength of schedule it's no stretch to say that the Rebels own the best defense in the country.
Kenny Hill didn't get a lot of help from his receivers last week, as there were several big drops that killed drives. He's had trouble protecting the ball though, tossing up three picks in the loss to the Bulldogs.
I like the Rebels getting points.
Take MISS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-11-14 |
LSU -1 v. Florida | Top | 30-27 |
Win | 100 | 60 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LSU Tigers.
It's been a tough week for the Florida Gators, with their quarterback Treon Harris accused of sexual assault, suspended, then cleared and reinstated. After his accuser withdrew her complaint, he has been cleared to rejoin the team, but Will Muschamp has said he will not play this Saturday. This is not good news for Florida, as it was Harris that sparks a late comeback versus Tennessee last week.
Jeff Driskel has not performed well in his last two starts, completing 20-of-51 passes for 152 yards with one TD and five picks. He's matching up against a dangerous LSU defense tonight, and there's every reason to expect his struggles to continue.
The Tigers were blown out on the road at Auburn last week, but I think they can bounce back against a lesser opponent here tonight.
LSU has won three of the last four in this series, including a 33-19 win at Florida in 2010. The Gators needed overtime to beat Kentucky at home in Week 2, and LSU should be a tougher opponent.
Take LSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-11-14 |
Duke v. Georgia Tech -4.5 | Top | 31-25 |
Loss | -106 | 104 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.
Georgia Tech is undefeated at 5-0, but after seeing so many undefeated teams fall victim to upsets the last two weeks, it seems like the trendy thing to do is fade the favorite in this spot. I'm not going to fall into that trap here though, as I think the home team is a well deserved favorite today.
Duke did not look impressive in a loss at Miami two weeks ago, and that same Miami team came into Atlanta and took a beating last Saturday. "We're getting better every week," coach Paul Johnson said. "That's what you hope that you can do."
The Blue Devils exceeded all expectations last year, winning 10 games and a division title. They still lost at home to Georgia Tech by a score of 38-14 though. The Yellow Jackets ran wild in that game, picking up 344 yards on the ground. After seeing Miami punish them on the ground in their last game, there's every indication that it's going to be a similar story here this time around.
The Yellow Jackets are 10-0 straight up, and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Take GT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-11-14 |
West Virginia -185 v. Texas Tech | Top | 37-34 |
Win | 100 | 103 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on the West Virginia Mountaineers.
The Mountaineers are 3-2 on the season, but those two losses came in close games against Top 5 ranked teams. They lost 33-23 at #2 Alabama in Week 1, then lost 45-33 at home to #4 Oklahoma two weeks ago. They head out on the road to face Big-12 rivals Texas Tech this week, and one might expect this to be a high scoring affair.
I'm not so sure the Red Raiders can hold up their end of the bargain though, with plenty of questions at QB. Davis Webb has taken a pounding the last few weeks, and he's thrown as many picks (6) as he has TDs the last two weeks.
There are no questions about WVU QB Clint Trickett, who ranks among the nation's top passers with 1902 yards and 10 TDS. He should have no trouble marching his offense down the field all day, after all he threw for a ton of yards against Oklahoma and Alabama. The Red Raiders defense is not nearly of the same caliber as those two Top 5 teams, not even in the same universe.
Texas Tech has allowed an average of 40 points per game, one of the worst ranked scoring defenses in the nation.
Take WVU. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-11-14 |
Georgia -145 v. Missouri | Top | 34-0 |
Win | 100 | 103 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Georgia Bulldogs.
The big news in college football this week is that Heisman favorite Todd Gurley has been suspended for violating NCAA rules. While it's a big blow to Georgia, by no means does it mean that they can't win on the road in Missouri this week.
Nick Chubb comes in at running back, and he's averaging a healthy 7.2 yards per carry while backing up Gurley. Don't be surprised if Chubb rips off a monster game against this Missouri defense that has really struggled against the run. Give the offensive line of Georgia a little credit.
It wouldn't be the first time we've seen a backup running back put up big numbers when the starter goes down with an injury. Georgia can also open thing up with their passing game, and they get a pair of dangerous receivers back this week. Malcolm Mitchell missed the first four games of the season, but he return last week and had one reception for 11 yards. He should play a bigger role here on Saturday.
Missouri's QB Maty Mauk has cooled off after a hot start, and he threw for just 132 yards on 12-of-34 passing in the "lucky" win over South Carolina in his last game. It won't get any easier against another solid SEC defense this afternoon.
Take UGA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-10-14 |
Washington State +17.5 v. Stanford | Top | 17-34 |
Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington State Cougars.
When the Washington State Cougars take on Stanford at The Farm Friday night, we'll see the nation's leading passer matched up against the Cardinal's top ranked defense. Last week Halliday threw for an FBS record 734 yards, and the Cougars still lost at home to Cal. As good as the Cougars are on offense, they simply can't stop opponents from scoring. That was the case when these teams played in Washington last season as the Cardinal won 55-17. The score was a lot closer the last time the Cougars traveled to Palo Alto, and I expect Halliday to put a few points on the board here on Friday. The Cougars are just 1-2 during a three game stretch that has seen them score 118 points. They upset the Utes in Utah two weeks ago, proving they have what it takes to compete on the road.
Kevin Hogan had a big game in last year's meeting, throwing for 286 yards and three TDs. He's been limited in practice all week suffering a leg injury, but is expected to start tonight. He's coming off consecutive underwhelming performances, throwing for just 336 yards with one TD and three INTs at Washington and Notre Dame.
Keep an eye on River Cracraft, the Cougars WR caught 11 passes for 172 yards and three TDs on Saturday. It's not like they can put a double team on him, with senior Vince Mayle on the other side, the team leader with 703 yards and six TDs.
Stanford might have the best defense in the country, but their strength is in stopping the run. That's not going to help them against the Cougars, who don't have much of a running game anyway.
Take WSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-09-14 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Houston Texans UNDER 45.5 | Top | 33-28 |
Loss | -100 | 86 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@HOU to go UNDER the total. We've seen a trend of high scoring games on Thursday nights, but I think that trend will come to an end tonight in Houston. The Colts offense couldn't protect the football on Sunday, committing four turnovers against the Ravens. Their defense got the job done though in a 20-13 win over Baltimore. The Texans offense continued struggle in Dallas, and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for just 154 yards and an INT. He's thrown six picks and just two TDs in his last three starts, and he and Andrew Luck share the league lead with six interceptions. Luck was picked off twice last week against the Ravens, and it won't get any easier here in Houston. He's faced the Texans four times in his career, completing just 50% of his passes while averaging just over 200 yards per game. The public has been betting heavily on the over here, driving the number up a few points after opening at 45. These teams have seen the total fall short of the number in six of the last seven head to head meetings, and the only exception was a stunning second half comeback by the Colts here in Houston last year. The Texans have also played five straight unders coming off a loss in their last game. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-06-14 |
Seattle Seahawks -7 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 27-17 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
Seattle is coming off a bye week, and that's not good news for Washington, a team that is in disarray with their starting quarterback sidelined with an injury. Kirk Cousins played well coming in for RGIII in Jacksonville, and he threw for 427 yards and three TDs against Philly. But last week against the Giants he was picked off four times in a 45-14 home loss.
The Legion of Boom isn't going to make life easy for Cousins tonight, and you can expect another poor performance from the Washington backup.
Russell Wilson isn't just a game manager anymore, and in the win over Denver he engineered a very impressive game winning drive in overtime. A healthy Percy Harvin adds another weapon to this offense, and the Seahawks are putting up plenty of points so far in 2014.
This is just a terrible spot of the Redskins, playing the defending champs who have had an addition week to rest and prepare for this nationally televised game. Cousins has got to be rattled after a terrible game against the Giants, and this Seahawks defense is particularly good at forcing turnovers.
I think the Redskins can with Cousins, just not this week.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-05-14 |
Kansas City Chiefs +7 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 17-22 |
Win | 100 | 111 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
There are big problems in San Fransciso, and after watching them shoot themselves in the foot repeatedly so far this season, I don't think they should be giving up points, even at home.
The Eagles were terrible last week, with their offense failing to score a single point. Still, after several breakdowns on special teams, and an INT returned for a TD, Philly still had a chance to win the game in the final minute.
Colin Kaepernick was brutal, taking several delay of game penalties letting the play clock expire. He held on to the ball for too long in the pocket, taking several unnecessary sacks. Coach Jim Harbaugh was not impressed, and there was a nasty exchange on the sidelines halfway threw the 3rd quarter.
The more I watch Colin Kaepernick play, the more I think that the 49ers made a big mistake getting rid of Alex Smith. The former 49er was impressive in a win over the Pats last week, and you can bet he's looking forward to facing his former team here today.
With injuries to the defense, the offensive line, and their most dangerous weapon on offense (Vernon Davis) unlikely to play, the 49ers are in big trouble.
Take KC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-05-14 |
Arizona Cardinals v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | Top | 20-41 |
Win | 100 | 63 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.
The Arizona Cardinals come into Denver with a 3-0 record, but catching the Broncos after a bye week isn't a good spot for the visitors. While they lost to the Seahawks in Seattle in Week 3, Denver proved that their defense is greatly improved, and they really did look like the second best team in the NFL.
Carson Palmer will ride the pine again this week, and that leaves Drew Stanton to to try match serves with Peyton Manning. Stanton has been solid so far, but he's only completed 51% of his passes. If Denver drives down the field early putting TDs on the board (as they are known to do), it will put a lot of pressure on the Cardinals offense, and that could spell disaster for Stanton.
The Cardinals are pretty thin in the backfield, with Jonathan Dwyer sitting out due to his legal troubles, and Andre Ellington slowed by a foot injury.
The Broncos have won four straight home games versus Arizona by a combined score of 106-32. I don't expect any different result here today.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-05-14 |
Houston Texans v. Dallas Cowboys -3 | Top | 17-20 |
Push | 0 | 142 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas is off a surprising 3-1 start, and I can't see any reason why they would take a step back at home today against Houston. The Texans defense has forced it's fair of turnovers, but the offense has been a complete nightmare. Houston QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has thrown as many picks (5) as he has touchdowns. All five of those INTS have come in the last two weeks, and he has just a pair of TDs in those games.
Tony Romo didn't look sharp at home against the 49ers in Week 1, and perhaps he was a little rusty coming off surgery in the off-season. He's looked sharper as the season has progressed, and last week he threw for 262 yards and three TDs against the Saints. He looks more comfortable in the pocket, and has shown the ability to be more mobile and avoid the sack.
DeMarco Murray leads the league in rushing, with 534 yards. That's 156 more yards than Le'Veon Bell, who ranks second with 378 yards. Murray has run for at least 100 yards with at least one TD in all four of the Cowboy's games, including the season opener against the 49ers. If he can run on the San Francisco defense, he should be able to have success against the Texans.
The Cowboys defense is their biggest concern, but with Fitzpatrick under center for the Texans, I don't think they'll be able to take advantage of the Cowboy's defensive shortcomings.
Take Dallas.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-05-14 |
Chicago Bears v. Carolina Panthers -150 | Top | 24-31 |
Win | 100 | 142 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Carolina Panthers.
The Bears were finally exposed by the Packers in a blowout loss in Chicago last week. They had been extremely lucky to beat the 49ers and Jets, as they were significantly out-gained in both those games. The injuries on the defensive side of the ball have continued to pile up for Chicago, and Green Bay was able to take full advantage of that scoring on seven of their eight possessions in last week's 38-17 win.
Jay Cutler did not have a good game against Green Bay, throwing a pair of interceptions. Injuries to Roberto Garza at center and Matt Slauson at left guard, have not helped. Cutler could be under heavy pressure again here this week, as the offensive line is still banged up.
The Chicago secondary is also pretty thin, with Charles Tillman gone for the season and Chris Conte and Sherrick McManis dealing with injuries.
I've heard a lot of people say that the Bears have been better on the road (they are 2-0). But when you take a close look at those games, you see they should have lost them both. They were trailing the 49ers 20-7 heading into the fourth quarter in San Francisco, before rallying to score 21 points in the final period. In New York they allowed the Jets to rack up 414 yards of offense, but Geno Smith handed them the game turning the ball over three times.
I think the Panthers find a way to win this game at home.
Take CAR. GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-05-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -10.5 | Top | 31-37 |
Loss | -105 | 142 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints return home after yet another loss on the road, getting blown out in Dallas by a score of 38-17. We shouldn't be too surprised though, as struggling on the road is nothing new for this dome team. They are back at the Superdome to host the Tampa Bucs this Sunday, and I think we should see vintage Drew Brees here in this one.
Brees threw 39 touchdown passes in 2013, and 27 of those came at home. He'll be matched against a Buccaneers team that ranks 29th against the pass, allowing 272 yards per game so far. You look at what Atlanta did against the Bucs in Week 3, and it might be a similar story here in New Orleans.
The Bucs are just 1-3, and last week they trailed the Steelers with under two minutes remaining, without the ball. The Steelers couldn't pick up a first down to run out the clock, and Tampa got the ball back and marched down the field for a game winning score as time expired.
The Saints have won their last two home games versus Tampa by a combined score of 83-17. This game isn't likely to be close, I expect it to be a nightmare for the visitors.
Take NO.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-05-14 |
St Louis Rams v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 28-34 |
Loss | -110 | 107 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on STL@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Philadelphia Eagles are known to have one of the NFL's most prolific offenses, but Chip Kelly's team didn't do a lot offensively last week in San Francisco. In fact all of the Eagles points came via the defense and special teams, with the offense failing to put a single point on the board.
LeSean McCoy led the league in rushing in 2013, but he's going backwards so far this year. He's run for a total of just 192 yards with one TD, and he's average fewer than three yards per carry. Injuries to the offensive line have not helped matters, and a failure to protect the quarterback has also taken it's toll on Nick Foles.
The Rams will try to take advantage of a banged up Eagles team today, and I expect a healthy dose of Zac Stacy. Philly is allowing opponents to average over 130 yards per game on the ground, and that doesn't bode well for the Eagles today.
The Rams have played four straight unders on the road, and four of the last five meetings between these two teams have fallen below the number. The only game that went over the total saw a combined 46 points, not quite enough to reach today's total.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-14 |
Nebraska v. Michigan State -9.5 | Top | 22-27 |
Loss | -110 | 134 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Michigan State Spartans.
The Spartans playoff hopes were put in serious jeopardy when they lost to Oregon in Week 2, and then again Thursday when Oregon lost to Arizona. Michigan State can still win the Big-10, but they'll need to beat Nebraska at home today.
Nebraska is a popular pick as an underdog here, as they come in with a 5-0 record. The Cornhuskers haven't played anybody though, and Armstrong and Abdullah have been putting up big numbers against weak teams. Playing on the road at East Lansing isn't quite the same as beating up on the likes of Illinois, and Frenso State.
The Spartans won convincingly at Nebraska last year, as as much as many claim that the Cornhuskers have improved, the Spartans are also a better team this year.
Last year's team was winning games in spite of it's offense, whereas this season the offense is a strength. Connor Cook hasn't looked back since throwing for a career high 332 yards in a win over Stanford in the Rose Bowl. He's been at his best against top opposition, he also threw for over 300 yards and three TDs at Ohio State in last year's Big-10 Championship Game.
I'm expecting Michigan State to win this game by double digits.
Take MSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-14 |
LSU v. Auburn UNDER 58.5 | Top | 7-41 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LSU@AUB to go UNDER the total.
Two weeks after being shocked by Mississippi State in a 34-29 loss, the Tigers head out on the road to face last year’s SEC champions Auburn. LSU will start freshman QB Brandon Harris this week, and he’s been impressive in limited action so far. Harris has completed 73% of his passes and thrown six TDs and just one pick. “Harris has some ad-lib to his game which is very, very positive,” Miles said. “He is really fast and can really throw the ball. He can extend a play so really good things can happen.” LSU defeated Auburn by a score 35-21 at Baton Rouge last year, and it’s won six of the last seven meetings outright. The lone loss came by a score of 24-17 at Auburn in 2010, and the bookmakers are giving LSU more than a TD to work with here on the road this week. Auburn’s offense has sputtered the last two weeks, sneaking away with a victory in a close game at Kansas State, and failing to cover at home against the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs last Saturday. It took a whole lot of luck for Auburn to make it to the SEC Championship Game last year. Along the way there were home wins over Washington State, Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama, and all of those games were decided by seven points or less. Three of the last five head to head meetings between these two teams have gone under the total. Tonight's number is much higher that it was in those previous contests, in fact it's higher than the combined total in all five of those games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-04-14 |
Alabama v. Ole Miss OVER 51 | Top | 17-23 |
Loss | -110 | 63 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ALA@MISS to go OVER the total.
It was only a few weeks ago that people were saying Alabama was in trouble, and that Blake Sims wasn't the answer at quarterback. I have been saying all along that Sims doesn't have to be great to replace a pretty average A.J. McCarron. He's coming off a huge game against Florida, throwing for 445 yards and four TDs.
Sims is definitely on the same page with wideout Amari Cooper, who caught 10 passes for 201 yards and three TDs against the Gators. While the offense is exceeding all expectations for Nick Saban's squad, the defense still looks a little suspect. The gave up 21 points against Florida, and 23 points against West Virginia.
Slowing down Bo Wallace should prove to be an even bigger challenge, he's thrown for 1271 yards and 11 TDs so far. I expect this year's contest to be more competitive than it has been in recent meetings between these two teams, and a close game with both teams scoring points could push the total over a pretty low number.
The total has gone over in six of Alabama's last seven games versus SEC opponents.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-14 |
Stanford v. Notre Dame UNDER 47.5 | Top | 14-17 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on STAN@ND to go UNDER the total.
Coming into the 2014 season, most expected Stanford to regress. The Cardinal had to replace their entire offensive line, but so far the new personnel has been equal to the task. The defense has picked up right where it left off in 2013, and after five weeks Stanford ranks 1st in the nation allowing fewer than seven points per game.
The Cardinal travel to South Bend to take on the Irish this week, and Notre Dame also owns one of the nation's top defenses. The Irish though have been padding their stats against some pretty weak teams. Their 31-0 win over Michigan looked pretty impressive at the time, but the Wolverines have looked brutal since. Wins over Syracuse and Purdue don't impress much, and today's game will be a much stiffer challenge.
The Cardinal have won four of the last five meetings in this series, and Notre Dame's lone win (2012) comes with a big asterisk. Stepfan Taylor got in the endzone with a game tying TD run, but the officials had prematurely whistled the play dead before the RB had been brought to the ground. The Irish escaped, and enjoyed an incredible run of luck for the rest of the season that saw them go all the way to the National Championship Game. The party was over though when Alabama rolled to victory by a score of 42-14.
Four of those five meetings went under the total, and with two of the top defenses in the country playing in cold and windy weather, we should expect another low scoring battle today.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-04-14 |
Stanford -140 v. Notre Dame | Top | 14-17 |
Loss | -140 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
Coming into the 2014 season, most expected Stanford to regress. The Cardinal had to replace their entire offensive line, but so far the new personnel has been equal to the task. The defense has picked up right where it left off in 2013, and after five weeks Stanford ranks 1st in the nation allowing fewer than seven points per game.
The Cardinal travel to South Bend to take on the Irish this week, and Notre Dame also owns one of the nation's top defenses. The Irish though have been padding their stats against some pretty weak teams. Their 31-0 win over Michigan looked pretty impressive at the time, but the Wolverines have looked brutal since. Wins over Syracuse and Purdue don't impress much, and today's game will be a much stiffer challenge.
The Cardinal have won four of the last five meetings in this series, and Notre Dame's lone win (2012) comes with a big asterisk. Stepfan Taylor got in the endzone with a game tying TD run, but the officials had prematurely whistled the play dead before the RB had been brought to the ground. The Irish escaped, and enjoyed an incredible run of luck for the rest of the season that saw them go all the way to the National Championship Game. The party was over though when Alabama rolled to victory by a score of 42-14.
The Cardinal have proved they can win on the road (last week at Washington), and they proved they can compete with the top teams in the country (USC), but as of yet the Irish have proven nothing. Take STAN.
GL,
Jesse Schule
|
10-03-14 |
San Diego State v. Fresno State | Top | 13-24 |
Loss | -110 | 106 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Diego State Aztecs.
The Aztecs will not have starting quarterback Quinn Kaehler tonight as they take on the Fresno State Bulldogs on the road. Kaehler hadn't impressed so far this season though, throwing four more picks (6) than TDs (2). The Aztecs have managed to be quite competitive even with a struggling quarterback. They lost a close game on the road at North Carolina, and then at Oregon State they lost 28-7 but kept Sean Mannion out of the endzone with no TDs and a pick.
The Bulldogs on the other hand opened the season with three straight losses, surrendering 50+ points in all three of those games. They were thumped by Nebraska at home a few weeks ago, and the Cornhuskers ran all over them in a 55-19 blowout. Nebraska racked up 280 rushing yards in that game. Fresno State hasn't been able to stop the run at all, and they no longer have a blue chip quarterback to bail them out like they did last year.
Junior Brian Burrell has done an admirable job replacing Derek Carr, but he's still a long ways off the pace of the 50 TDs that Carr had last year. The Bulldogs two wins both came against bottom feeders, and I don't think they'll be able to stop the Aztecs here tonight.
Take SDSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-14 |
Louisville -165 v. Syracuse | Top | 28-6 |
Win | 100 | 109 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Louisville Cardinals.
Louisville already suffered a tough loss on the road at Virginia, but I don't think they're going to have quite as much trouble with Syracuse. The Orange haven't impressed so far at home, losing to Maryland and needing overtime to beat Villanova. Quarterback Terrel Hunt completed just 50% of his pass attempts for 219 yards with no TDs and an INT in the loss to the Terrapins.
It won't get any easier for Hunt tonight, with Louisville's defense ranking 9th in the country allowing opponents an average of just 14 points per game. The Cardinals 20-10 win over Wake Forest doesn't look that impressive, but a closer look reveals that Wake Forest only managed 100 yards of total offense in that game.
Louisville's freshman quarterback hasn't impressed so far, with just 357 passing yards and one TD in the three games he's played. They haven't asked him to do a lot though, and the good news is, he hasn't thrown any picks. As long as they continue to be conservative and lean on their defense and running game, the Cardinal should have little trouble with Syracuse.
The Orange have only covered the points once in their last five home games, and I expect them to come up well short tonight.
Take LOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-03-14 |
Louisville v. Syracuse UNDER 46.5 | Top | 28-6 |
Win | 100 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOU@SYR to go UNDER the total. Louisville already suffered a tough loss on the road at Virginia, but I don't think they're going to have quite as much trouble with Syracuse. The Orange haven't impressed so far at home, losing to Maryland and needing overtime to beat Villanova. Quarterback Terrel Hunt completed just 50% of his pass attempts for 219 yards with no TDs and an INT in the loss to the Terrapins.
It won't get any easier for Hunt tonight, with Louisville's defense ranking 9th in the country allowing opponents an average of just 14 points per game. The Cardinals 20-10 win over Wake Forest doesn't look that impressive, but a closer look reveals that Wake Forest only managed 100 yards of total offense in that game.
Louisville's freshman quarterback hasn't impressed so far, with just 357 passing yards and one TD in the three games he's played. They haven't asked him to do a lot though, and the good news is, he hasn't thrown any picks. As long as they continue to be conservative and lean on their defense and running game, the Cardinal should have little trouble with Syracuse. Louisville has seen the total go under in six of it's last seven road games, and with their struggling offense, that trend should continue tonight. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-02-14 |
Arizona +23.5 v. Oregon | Top | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 44 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 10* play on the Arizona Wildcats.
These two Pac-12 rivals will meet for the first time since the Wildcats upset the Ducks in Arizona last year. The loss cost Oregon a trip to the Rose Bowl, and revenge could indeed be a factor here in Eugene tonight. There is no doubt that this is a game that Oregon needs, wants, and almost surely will win. That being said, the Ducks are asked to cover an awful lot of points against a team that has averaged more yardage on offense so far than they have.
Arizona scored 36 points in the fourth quarter of a stunning comeback win over Cal on September 20th. The Wildcats freshman quarterback threw for 520 yards and five TDs in the victory. The Ducks defense has looked vulnerable to the pass so far, especially at Washington State. Connor Halliday threw for 434 yards and four TDs, in a game that wasn't decided until late the fourth quarter.
As good as Marcus Mariota has been for the Ducks, they've got to keep him upright. He took a career high seven sacks against the Cougars. The Oregon offensive line is a little banged up, and the new faces haven't been getting the job done.
The Wildcats have covered the spread in six of the last nine meetings, and tonight's number is several points higher than it was in any of those previous contests.
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-02-14 |
Minnesota Vikings v. Green Bay Packers OVER 47 | Top | 10-42 |
Win | 100 | 42 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIN@GB to go OVER the total.
The Packers put on a show with their offense last week, scoring on all but one of their offensive possessions in a 38-17 road win at Chicago. They should be able to light up the scoreboard at home tonight against a Vikings team that will be without it's best defensive player Chad Greenway.
The defense though remains a sore spot for Green Bay, as they've conceded a league worst 176 rushing yards per game. That's of particular concern against Minnesota's revamped running game that picked up a healthy 235 yards on the ground in last week's win over the Falcons.
These teams have a long history of playing high scoring games, as the total has gone over at a rate of 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings. The court of public opinion seems to have decided that if Teddy Bridgewater doesn't play (he still may) that the Vikes are screwed. I would point out that Christian Ponder completed 21-of-30 attempts for 233 yards and a TD in a 26-26 tie at Green Bay last year.
The Packers have seen the total go over in six of their last eight overall, and I expect that trend to continue at Lambeau tonight.
Take OVER.
GL, Jesse Schule |
09-29-14 |
New England Patriots v. Kansas City Chiefs UNDER 47 | Top | 14-41 |
Loss | -105 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NE@KC to go UNDER the total. The Pats will be at Arrowhead on Monday night, taking on Jamaal Charles and the Chiefs. I expect to see a low scoring game here, as both teams are likely to focus heavily on the the run. New England no longer looks like an offensive juggernaut, and they've been winning games with their defense. The Pats lead the league in pass defense, limiting opponents to an average of 168 yards passing per game. The Chiefs haven't had any success in their passing game, and Alex Smith ranks 25th among NFL quarterbacks with a passer rating of 81.5. Tom Brady hasn't had a lot of success either so far this year, as the offensive line hasn't been able to give him time to drop back and pass. Bill Belichick has been able to put together a game plan that has allowed his team to be successful despite such poor pass protection. The total has fallen well short of the number in each of the last four meetings between these two teams, and the total for tonight's game looks a little higher than it should be all things considered. Kansas City rarely plays high scoring games at home, with the total going under in 23 of their last 31 home games. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-28-14 |
New Orleans Saints v. Dallas Cowboys UNDER 53 | Top | 17-38 |
Loss | -105 | 130 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NO@DAL to go UNDER the total.
The Saints are a popular pick here in Dallas tonight, but I think it's important to remember that New Orleans isn't the same team on the road. The Saints have seen the total go under in six of their last eight road games, and nine of their last 12 overall.
Drew Brees threw 39 TD passes in 2013, and only 12 of those came outside the Superdome. He's torched the Cowboys in Dallas before though, and that's something that the Dallas coaching staff will be aware of.
This year's Cowboy's team isn't quite the same as it was in previous seasons. They aren't relying on Tony Romo to win games with his arm, instead they have been riding DeMarco Murray, who is currently the league's leading rusher.
Success running the football will also keep the ball out of the hands of Drew Brees, so you can bet your bottom dollar that Dallas is going to run early and often in tonight's game.
The Defense has struggled at times, and last week the Cowboys gave up a lot of points to a Rams third string QB. They did however hold San Francisco scoreless in the second half of their only home game this season.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-28-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. San Francisco 49ers -4 | Top | 21-26 |
Win | 100 | 155 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco 49ers.
San Francisco will host the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, and Philly has come from behind after trailing by double digits three weeks in a row. I think their luck runs out this week though, facing a desperate 49ers team, and coming off a tough battle with Washington last week.
This Eagles defense hasn't impressed so far, ranking 30th in the NFL against the pass. That's pretty bad when you consider one of their three games came at home against Jacksonville. Philly will also have to make due with an offensive line decimated by injuries to center Jason Kelce, right tackle Lane Johnson, and left guard Evan Mathis. Replacing players on the offensive line is difficult for any team, but perhaps more so for a team running such an up tempo offense.
QB Nick Foles also took a beating in last weeks win over Washington, and he's in a tough spot here on the road a week later. Foles and the Eagles might not be able to lean on their running game, as the 49ers have been pretty tough against the run allowing an average of just 85 yards per game (6th in NFL). Shady McCoy failed to get anything going against Washington last week, picking up just 22 yards on 19 carries. He also took several big shots that saw him slow to get up, at one point looking like he might have suffered a concussion.
The game against the Redskins was a nasty one, and it clearly took a lot out of Washington as they came out flat on Thursday night in a loss to New York. I think we should see a similar story for the Eagles here in San Francisco.
Vernon Davis is listed as a game time decision, but I'm expecting him to play. I'm not a Niners fan, but this looks like a good spot for San Francisco at home.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-28-14 |
Buffalo Bills +3.5 v. Houston Texans | Top | 17-23 |
Loss | -118 | 151 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills had no answer for Philip Rivers last week, but this week's game at Houston should be a different story. Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was terrible in a loss to the Giants last week, throwing three picks. Houston relies mostly on it's running game for offense, and that's not a good thing facing the Bills.
Buffalo ranks 5th overall in the NFL in run defense, with opponents averaging just 83 yards per game. Arian Foster is set to return today, but I wouldn't suggest playing him in your fantasy leagues.
C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson might be a little more successful though, as Houston hasn't had as much success stopping the run as one would expect. Bills QB E.J. Manuel has been solid but not brilliant, throwing for 613 yards, three TDs and one pick.
The Bills defense should be good enough to keep them in this game, especially going up against former Buffalo QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. This game is likely to be a close one, and I'll take the Bills + the points.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-28-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Pittsburgh Steelers UNDER 44.5 | Top | 27-24 |
Loss | -105 | 123 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TB@PIT to go UNDER the total.
The Buccaneers were embarrassed on the road at Atlanta last Thursday, but having an extra few days to prepare for this Sunday's game at Pittsburgh might allow them to show some improvement. I don't think the Bucs are quite as bad as they looked last week, and nor do I believe the Steelers are as good as they appeared to be in a win at Carolina.
The Steelers lead the league in rushing, averaging 163 yards per game so far. I expect them to come in to this game focused on the ground and pound, chewing up the clock with every possession.
The Bucs rank dead last in the NFL in passing, averaging just 163 yards per game. Their running game could get a boost with the return of RB Doug Martin.
Four of the last five head to head meetings between these teams have resulted in the total going under. Today's total is a little higher than in any of those previous contests. The Steelers have seen the total go under in 12 of their last 15 home games versus teams with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-28-14 |
Detroit Lions v. NY Jets UNDER 45 | Top | 24-17 |
Win | 100 | 81 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DET@NYJ to go UNDER the total.
The Jets defense has played very well so far this season, leading the league in opponent's rushing average, allowing just 55 yards per game. The offense on the other hand has been unimpressive, and Geno Smith has really struggled at quarterback.
Last week the Jets defense held Chicago to just 257 yards of total offense, but a pair of Geno Smith interceptions proved to be their undoing. The Lions defense held the Packers and Aaron Rodgers to just seven points.
I'm expecting to see a low scoring tilt between two teams that are more than capable defensively. The Lions do have a prolific offense, but perhaps not so much on the road. They didn't get much going offensively in a loss to the Bengals in Cincy in Week 2.
The total has gone over in three of the last six head to head meetings between these two teams, but today's total is higher than it was in any of those previous contests. Five of the Lions last six games overall have fallen short of the number.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-27-14 |
Notre Dame v. Syracuse UNDER 51.5 | Top | 31-15 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SYR@ND to go UNDER the total. The Irish played in an NFL stadium in their last game, a 30-14 win over Purdue. They will take on the Syracuse Orange at the Meadowlands tonight, and I expect to see another low scoring tilt. The Irish defense has been dominant so far, pitching a shutout against Michigan, and they rank 3rd nationally allowing just 10 points per game. Syracuse QB Terrel Hunt has been a dual threat, and he ran for 156 yards and two TDs against Maryland last week. Notre Dame isn't likely to let Hunt run freely here tonight, and he hasn't been quite so efficient as a passer. He's completed just 58% of his passes for 488 yards with only 1 TD so far this season. He'll be without his top target, Ashton Broyld is sidelined by a leg injury. He leads the team with 11 catches for 125 yards. Notre Dame's ability to run up the score may be hampered by poor pass protection. The Boilermakers managed to get to Everett Golson, sacking him four times. The Irish are also missing one of their top receivers, as Amir Carlisle is out with a knee injury. The Irish have seen the total go under in 15 of their last 18 against teams from the ACC. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-27-14 |
Duke +7 v. Miami (Fla) | Top | 10-22 |
Loss | -120 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Duke Blue Devils. The Duke Blue Devils will be at Miami this week, looking to remain undefeated. The Blue Devils upset the Hurricanes at home last year, and finished the season as ACC Coastal Division champs. They haven't shown any signs of letting up this year, while the Hurricanes have already suffered a pair of losses to Louisville and Nebraska.
Miami's freshman QB Brad Kaaya threw a pair of INTs in the loss to Nebraska last week, and he's been picked off seven times in four games so far. The Canes running game was not at all effective, totaling just 76 yards on 23 carries.
Duke comes in as the team with more experience, and head coach David Cutcliffe has the offense firing on all cylinders. They racked up a whopping 543 yards in a 48-30 win over Miami last year, and so far this year's Hurricanes team looks worse than it did in 2013.
Anthony Boone has been very solid at QB for Duke, throwing for 876 yards with seven TDs and just one pick. He's also picked up 99 yards and three TDs on the ground. The most important thing is that he has been able to protect the football.
I'll take the points, but I really think Duke should win this game outright.
Take Duke.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-27-14 |
Missouri v. South Carolina -205 | Top | 21-20 |
Loss | -205 | 18 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the South Carolina Gamecocks.
Steve Spurrier was not impressed with his team's effort on the road at Vanderbilt last week, and you can bet he'll have them ready for a home game against division rivals Missouri tonight. The Tigers are also coming off a poor showing, but unlike the Gamecocks they failed to walk away with a victory, losing outright at home to the Indiana Hoosiers.
The Tigers appear to be a complete mess on defense, not only last week but also on the road at Toledo in Week 2. Tevin Coleman ran for 139 yards and a TD for Indiana last week, and Kareem Hunt ran for 148 yards and three TDs in Toledo.
The Gamecocks beat the Tigers in Missouri last year, and this years squad doesn't look anything like last year's team that won 11 games before losing to Auburn in the SEC Championship Game.
The last time the Tigers played at Williams-Brice, they lost by a score of 31-10. I expect a similar score here tonight.
Take the Gamecocks.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-27-14 |
Stanford -6.5 v. Washington | Top | 20-13 |
Win | 100 | 123 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Stanford Cardinal.
The Huskies very nearly upset Stanford at The Farm last season, and they won outright as a 7-point dog at home in 2012. That was then, and this is now. Gone are head coach Steve Sarkisian, QB Keith Price, RB Bishop Sankey and TE Austin Sefarian Jenkins. The Huskies defense was ranked among the nation's best at this time last year, but they have allowed over 25 points per game so far, all of those games coming against unranked teams. They gave up 52 points against Eastern Washington at home in Week 2, and that doesn't bode well as they get to face one of the Pac-12's elite teams.
The skeptics will be quick to point out the inexperience on the Cardinal offensive line. So far that hasn't stopped Kevin Hogan from throwing for over 700 yards, 7 TDs and just one pick over the first three games. Oh, and the defense? The #1 defense in the country, allowing a total of just 13 points in three games, all of those coming in the loss to USC.
Prior to the Huskies upset win in 2012, the Cardinal won and covered four straight in this series, twice winning by at least a TD on the road. There has been a changing of the guard in Washington, with new faces at several key positions, and head coach Chris Peterson know's not to expect things to fall into place in his first year with the school: "I don't know if we're ready for it or not, but we've got four games, some good experience and this whole thing is a work in progress and I really mean that," said Petersen
The Huskies may also be without top wideout John Ross, who leads the team with 224 yards and three TDs. He sat out last week with a leg injury. I like Stanford to win this game by double digits.
Take STAN.
GL, Jesse Schule |
09-25-14 |
UCLA -4 v. Arizona State | Top | 62-27 |
Win | 100 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the UCLA Bruins.
The Bruins are a road favorite against a Pac-12 rival here on Thursday, and they've played close games against Arizona State in recent seasons. The Sun Devils have won two of the last four head to head meetings, and both losses during that span came in games decided by less than a field goal. Even though UCLA hasn't impressed in it's first three games, I still like the Bruins to pull out a victory on the road versus an overrated Arizona State team with a backup QB under center.
Taylor Kelly will not play after suffering an injury in the win at Colorado on September 13. Mike Bercovici will be his replacement, and he'll have his hands full against a very talented Bruins defense. Kelly ran the ball for 99 yards and a TD in last year's game, and that proved the the difference in a 33-38 upset.
Jim Mora won't say one way or the other if Brett Hundley will return to action after leaving with an injury to his non-throwing arm in the win at Texas, but I expect the Bruins QB to play.
We've seen the Bruins dominate both offensively and defensively at times so far this season, but they have yet to put it all together in one game. If they can do that tonight, it should spell trouble for the Sun Devils, who have really struggled against weak opposition. They were quite fortunate to have escaped with a victory at Colorado, as the Buffaloes out-gained them 545-426 in total yards.
Take UCLA.
GL, Jesse Schule |
09-25-14 |
NY Giants v. Washington Redskins -3.5 | Top | 45-14 |
Loss | -100 | 45 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on the Washington Redskins.
The Redskins are coming off a tough loss on the road at Philadelphia, and they are a little banged up as they get ready to host the Giants on Thursday Night Football. New York is coming off it's first win of the season, and Rashad Jennings ran all over the Texans picking up 176 yards on the ground.
Jennings might not find as many holes in this Washington defense, that currently ranks 3rd overall in the NFL allowing just 64 yards rushing per game. The Redskins held Shady McCoy to just 22 yards on Sunday, but couldn't hold on to a double digit lead.
Eli Manning finally had a game without throwing an INT, but it could be a little early to say he's turned things around. He's up against a ferocious Washington pass rush that leads the NFL in sacks, so don't be surprised if he struggles here on the road.
Kirk Cousins has impressed since filling in for the injured RGIII, he's thrown for 677 yards and five TDs with just one INT in two games. He could be in for a big night against a Giants secondary that hasn't been impressive, allowing over 250 yards passing per game.
Take WAS,
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-25-14 |
Texas Tech v. Oklahoma State -13.5 | Top | 35-45 |
Loss | -109 | 44 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
The Cowboys have owned Big-12 rivals Texas Tech in recent seasons, winning five straight meetings in this series. Last season Oklahoma State won in Lubbock by a score of 52-34. I see no reason why tonight's game would be any closer, as this has all the signs of a complete mismatch.
The Red Raiders normally potent offense hasn't yet gotten off the ground this year, and they've struggled against lesser teams like Central Arkansas and UTEP. The Arkansas Razorbacks went into Lubbock last week and ran all over them, running for 438 yards and seven TDs.
Davis Webb was only able to throw for 252 yards, and he was intercepted twice in the loss to Arkansas. It won't get any easier against Cowboys defense that is probably stronger than that of the Razorbacks.
The two TDs that Oklahoma State is asked to cover here, is exactly half of the average margin of victory during their five game winning streak in this series. The Cowboys are also 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games at Stillwater.
Too good to be true? Or maybe just too easy? I think it's the later.
Take OKST.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-22-14 |
Chicago Bears v. NY Jets OVER 44 | Top | 27-19 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on CHI@NJY to go OVER the total. The Jets defense hasn't given up anything on the ground, leading the NFL allowing opponents to average just 52 yards per game. They haven't been nearly as effective stopping the pass though, and Aaron Rodgers lite them up for 346 yards and three TDs last week. The Jets host the Bears on Monday Night Football, and Chicago's QB Jay Cutler can put points on the board in a hurry. He did just that last week, scoring three fourth quarter TDs to come from behind and beat the 49ers in San Francisco. Chicago has failed miserably trying to stop the run, and that doesn't bode well facing a Jets offense that leads the NFL in rushing. I expect the Jets to run all over the Bears with Chris Johnson, Chris Ivory as well as QB Geno Smith. These teams last met in 2010, and the Bears won that game by a score of 38-34. Chicago doesn't often play low scoring games on the road, in fact 13 of their last 16 games away from home have gone over the total. Public money has pushed this total down a few points from a number that was already quite low. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-21-14 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Carolina Panthers -177 | Top | 37-19 |
Loss | -177 | 89 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Carolina Panthers ML.
The Steelers appear to have been exposed after two weeks. Not only did they nearly blow a 27-3 lead at home to the Browns in Week 1, but they had their butts served to them on the road in Baltimore last week. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown more INTs (2) than TDs (1), and he's having trouble establishing any chemistry with his new corps of receivers. They lost a lot of talent when Emanuel Sanders and Jericho Cotchery left town, and his replacements haven't been able to fill the void.
Scoring won't come easy on the road in Carolina, as this Panther's defense is one of the league's best, ranking second overall in points allowed. Big Ben has been sacked five times over the first two weeks, and he'll have to be on his toes tonight, as the Panthers pass rush has been tough on opposing QBs. Carolina's seven sacks are the fourth most in the NFL.
I'm not a fan of Cam Newton, or any other dual-threat QB in the NFL for that matter, but I'll give him credit for his play last week. Newton completed 22-of-34 passes for 281 yards and TD against the Lions, and only attempted to run the ball four times for 19 yards.
The Panthers have won eight straight home games, and 13-of-14 overall. I can't see the Steelers ending that run here tonight.
Take CAR.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-21-14 |
Denver Broncos v. Seattle Seahawks -210 | Top | 20-26 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Seattle Seahawks. It has taken Pete Carrol four years to put together a championship team in Seattle. He took over in 2010, and that team finished 7-9, sneaking into the post season and upsetting the Saints in the Wildcard Game, before losing to the Bears. The 2011 season saw them again finish 7-9, missing the post-season. Russell Wilson burst onto the scene in 2012, and that's when things really started to change in the Emerald City. Wilson led the Hawks to an 11-5 record as a rookie, and the team's defense earned a reputation as the best in football. Wilson was even better in his second season in the league, and last year's Seahawks team went 13-3, and of course defeated Denver 43-8 in the Superbowl. So should we expect them to take a step backward? I don't think so, Wilson should only get better with more experience, and he fits perfectly with this coach in this system. He should have the benefit of having Percy Harvin as a target, a luxury that he didn't enjoy most of last season.
The Broncos might have revenge on the brain, but Russell Wilson has won 18-of-19 in Seattle during his career, and today's game is just onther example of a situation where I expect "History To Repeat Itself".
Take SEA.
GL, Jesse Schule |
09-21-14 |
Minnesota Vikings v. New Orleans Saints -9.5 | Top | 9-20 |
Win | 100 | 153 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints host the Vikings in a must win game in New Orleans this Sunday, and this game was always going to be a blowout. New Orleans has lost back to back games on the road at Atlanta and Cleveland, and they need a win here at home in order to keep their season alive.
The Saints (much like Seattle) are a different team at home. Last season they were 8-0 at the Superdome, and all but one of those victories came by double digits.
Drew Brees threw 39 TD passes in 2013, 27 of those came at home in New Orleans. His completion percentage at home (73.6%) was almost 10 percentage points higher than it was on the road.
The Vikings have more problems other than the loss of Peterson, their QB Matt Cassel was picked off four times in the loss to New England last week, completing just 52% of his passes. The Vikings probably know they are better off handing over the reigns to Teddy Bridgewater, but this week's game isn't the best spot for them to make such a move. They'll let Cassel take his lumps today, and unless he does something special, expect to see Bridgewater at home verusus Atlanta next week.
Take the Saints.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-21-14 |
Houston Texans -2.5 v. NY Giants | Top | 17-30 |
Loss | -105 | 153 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans.
I played the Texans in both their previous two wins the last two weeks, and seeing them play on the road against a sloppy New York Giants team has me licking my chops at a chance to bet on them again this week. The Giants simply can't hold on to the football, and that doesn't bode well against a very strong Texans team with a fierce pass rush and an opportunistic secondary.
Even when Houston was losing games last year, the defense was still playing well. The Texans owned the #1 ranked defense against the pass for most of the season, until they completely collapsed in the final four weeks. I don't expect this year's team to fall apart, as long as Ryan Fitzpatrick can continue to make good decisions.
Fitzpatrick has a bit of a shady history when it comes to turnovers, but not as much so as Eli Manning. The Giants QB threw a whopping 27 picks last year, and he's already tossed four INTs in losses to Detroit and Arizona. Those of you who know me will have heard me say it before "HISTORY REPEATS ITSELF", and this sums up how I feel about Eli these days. After seeing him stink for the better part of the last two year, it's tough to expect any different result here this week.
The recipe for success for Houston should be pretty simple, just keep doing what they have been doing in the first two weeks. They don't need to take any chances. Hand the ball off to Arian Foster and pound away with the run. Foster was quite effective on the road last week, running for 138 yards and a TD.
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-21-14 |
San Diego Chargers v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 45 | Top | 22-10 |
Win | 100 | 82 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SD@BUF to go UNDER the total.
The San Diego Chargers will be on the road at Buffalo this afternoon, and both these teams have impressed on defense so far this season. The Bills are 2-0, and they completely shut down Miami last week, defeating the Dolphins by a score of 29-10.
The Chargers lost to Arizona in Week 1, but bounced back last week with an impressive home win over the Seahawks. San Diego won't have RB Ryan Matthews here this Sunday, and running the ball won't be easy against a stout defensive front of Buffalo. The Bills have allowed opponents an average of just 83 yards rushing per game so far.
Buffalo will continue to work their own power running game, and they've had plenty of success with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson both averaging 4.5 yards per carry. If their success continues at home this week, we should see plenty of long clock killing drives.
The Chargers have played five straight low scoring games on the road, with the total going under in all five of those contests. They have also seen an overwhelming trend of low scoring games against AFC opponents, with 11 of their last 13 such games going under.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-14 |
Northern Illinois v. Arkansas -14 | Top | 14-52 |
Win | 100 | 108 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arkansas Razorbacks.
Since losing to Auburn in their season opener, the Razorbacks have won consecutive games in convincing fashion. They host Northern Illinois tonight, and the Huskies come in undefeated with a record of 3-0. The Huskies defeated UNLV by a score of 48-34, hardly impressive considering the opponent.
The betting public is still in love with the Huskies, who have put together back to back 12 win seasons. This isn't the same team though, gone is dual threat quarterback Jordan Lynch. His replacement Drew Hare has been decent, but it's asking a lot to fill Lynch's shoes.
It's rare to see the Huskies play a quality opponent, as they've made a name for themselves by beating up on the minnows of the MAC. They closed out last season with a 47-27 loss to Bowling Green in the MAC Championship Game, and a 21-14 loss to Utah State in the Poinsettia Bowl. Playing an upstart SEC team on the road, should be even more challenging that either of those contests.
Take ARK.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-14 |
North Carolina v. East Carolina -2 | Top | 41-70 |
Win | 100 | 79 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the East Carolina Pirates.
After the Pirates upset the Hokies last week, you'll hear a lot of people saying that they are looking at a "let down" at home against North Carolina. I'm not buying it! This is a team that has a chance to make some noise this season, and hey aren't just going to take a week off because they won on the road last week. Last year they won five of six at home, with the only loss coming to Virginia Tech by a score of 15-10.
The Pirates responded to that loss by going into Chapel Hill and spanking the Tar Heels by a score of 55-31. Shane Carden threw for 376 yards and three TDs in that game, and he's been impressive again this season. He threw for a whopping 427 yards and three TDs last week against the Hokies, and he engineered a game winning drive in the final minute of play on the road against one of the toughest defenses in the ACC.
The Tar Heels on the other hand struggled at home versus a rather average San Diego State team last week, and they failed to impress in their season opener against Liberty.
Take ECU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-14 |
Florida v. Alabama OVER 50 | Top | 21-42 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on FLA@ALA to go OVER the total.
Word on the street is that Alabama has lost it's air of invincibility. The Tide finished up last season with a loss to Auburn, and then they were embarrassed in a 45-31 loss to Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. We'll find out just how good the Crimson Tide are (or aren't), when they host SEC rivals Florida this afternoon.
The Gators are coming off a 36-30 OT win over Kentucky, that saw QB Jeff Driskel set a career high with 295 passing yards, and three TDs. He connected with Demarcus Robinson for 15 receptions for 216 yards and a pair of TDs. Driskel could continue to be successful against this Alabama defense that will be without safety Nick Perry, who will have to sit for the first half after being ejected in last week's game.
West Virginia was able to hang with Alabama in Week 1, and Clint Trickett totaled 365 passing yards in the 33-23 loss. I don't believe that either of these two teams are as strong defensively as they have been in past seasons, and the total for today's game looks a little low.
Alabama has seen six of it's last eight home games go over the total, and that is a trend that should continue today.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-14 |
Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech UNDER 52.5 | Top | 27-24 |
Win | 100 | 76 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GT@VT to go UNDER the total.
The Hokies were stunned by the air attack of the East Carolina Pirates, going down 21-0 in the first quarter, before they even knew what hit them. They buckled down after that though, holding the Pirates scoreless, and answering with three TDs of their own to tie the score at 21-21. Shane Carden only needed one minute to engineer the game winning drive that handed Virginia Tech a 28-21 loss.
Don't expect a repeat of that scenario this week against the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. First of all, the Yellow Jackets are one-dimensional team that will try to pound away with the run, so whatever problems the Hokies had defending the pass shouldn't be an issue here today. A slow start last week might have been a product of over-confidence after upsetting the Buckeyes, but they should be ready to play from the opening kickoff tonight.
Virginia Tech's defense looked pretty solid against the run when they played Ohio State, limiting the buckeyes to less than three yards per carry. The Hokies have won six of the last seven meetings with Georgia Tech, and six of those seven games went under the total. Last year's meeting saw the Hokies win by a score of 17-10. Taking that into consideration, today's total looks way too high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-18-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Atlanta Falcons -6 | Top | 14-56 |
Win | 100 | 88 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
It shouldn't really surprise anyone that the Falcons struggled on the road at Cincinnati last Sunday. Sure they looked pretty darn good a week prior, defeating Drew Brees and the Saints, but that's expected from a dome team. You can expect Matty Ice to bounce back tonight as he faces a struggling Buccaneers defense that has allowed 465 passing yards in consecutive losses at home. That might not sound like a whole lot of yardage, but keep in mind that the two opponents they have faced so far have been playing their backup quarterbacks.
Who is Austin Davis? Well he's not exactly a household name, but he threw for 235 yards for the Rams in their Week 2 upset at Tampa. The Week before it was Derek Anderson filling in for Cam Newton, and the 31 year old backup threw for 230 yards and a pair of TDs. You can only imagine how much tougher it will be to stop Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Roddy White in the dome tonight.
The Bucs thought they had solved their quarterback problems when they brought in Josh McCown from the Bears in the off-season. After the first two weeks, McCown has not impressed, coming into tonight's game with the 31st overall passer rating among NFL quarterbacks. McCown put up some impressive numbers throwing to the likes of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery last season, but Tampa's receiving corps doesn't quite measure up to that of the Bears.
These teams met twice last year, with the home team winning each game. The Falcons won by a score of 31-23 at the Georgia Dome, and there is every reason to expect a similar scoreline tonight.
Take ATL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-18-14 |
Auburn v. Kansas State +9 | Top | 20-14 |
Win | 100 | 60 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas State Wildcats.
The Auburn Tigers are trying to repeat as SEC champions, but a brutal schedule could prove to be their undoing. It starts to get a bit tougher for the Tigers here in Manhattan tonight, as they play their first road game of the season against the #20 ranked Kansas State Wildcats.
Auburn won three of it's four road games last year, two of those coming against Top 25 teams. The Tigers lost to LSU by a score of 35-21 in Baton Rouge, and they came back from a double digit deficit in the fourth quarter to upset Texas A&M at College Station 45-41. The visitors are asked to cover an awful lot of points against a very tough Kansas State team tonight, and I expect the Wildcats to keep this game close.
Kansas State finished last season strong, winning five of it's final six games of the regular season, and then beating Michigan by a score of 30-14 in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl. The offense should only be stronger this season, with daul threat QB Jake Waters and top wideout Tyler Lockett back for their senior year. Waters had a big game at Iowa State last week, passing for 239 yards, and running the ball for 138 yards and a pair of TDs. Lockett caught six passes for 139 yards.
If the Wildcats defense can have reasonable success stopping the run tonight, they could win this game outright. Kansas State is 22-1 over the last two seasons when limiting opponents to less than 200 yards rushing. They didn't give up much on the ground last week, holding the Cyclones to an average of just 2.8 yards per carry (105 yards total). Granted it will be a lot more challenging to stop Nick Marshall and Cameron Artis-Payne, but I still think that Auburn is going to have problems playing on the road, not just tonight, but as their schedule gets tougher in the coming weeks.
Take KSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-15-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 30-27 |
Win | 100 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles got off to a terrible start last week, getting out-scored 17-0 by the Jaguars. Nick Foles fumbled three times, and threw an interception. They sorted things out though in the second half, scoring 34 unanswered points. Foles finished with 322 passing yards and a pair of TDs, and Shady McCoy and Darren Sproles picked up 145 yards on the ground. If the Eagles can pick up where they left off, Indianapolis is going to be in big trouble.
Last week's loss to Denver wasn't really as close as the score would indicate. The Broncos led 31-10 in the fourth quarter, until Indianapolis staged one of their classic late rallies. Last year the Colts stunned the Chiefs in the playoffs, coming back from a 21-point halftime deficit to win 45-44. It wasn't the only miracle comeback we saw from Indy, they did the same thing in Houston and Tennessee during the regular season. Indy wasn't able to get anything going with the running game last week, gaining only 54 yards. They aren't likely to have much more success tonight, as the Eagles effectively shut down Jacksonville's running game last week. Trent Richardson has been a huge bust, and his backups aren't scaring anyone either. This will be the third time Chip Kelly faces Andrew Luck, with Kelly's team winning both the previous two meetings (Oregon vs. Stanford).
Take PHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule. |
09-14-14 |
Chicago Bears +7.5 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 28-20 |
Win | 100 | 161 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Chicago Bears.
I picked Dallas to cover against San Francisco last week, and unfortunately on that rare occasion I missed the mark. It wasn't really a matter of San Francisco being the better team though, instead it was three interceptions thrown by Tony Romo, and a DeMarco Murray fumble that cost the Cowboys the game. As ugly as the game was, there are a few things that shouldn't go unnoticed. Like Dallas out-scoring the 49ers 14-0 in the second half, owning an advantage in total yards, first downs as well as time of possession.
I still believe that San Francisco is overrated, and it's only a matter of time before holes start to appear in this defense that is without Aldon Smith and NaVorro Bowman. Granted the Bears have their own injury concerns, but Chicago is getting a bunch of points here.
Jay Culter can certainly pick apart a defense, and for the most part that's what he did in Week 1, throwing for 349 yards and a pair of TDs. If he can just hang on to the football, and avoid costly INTs and fumbles, the Bears should be able to hang with the Niners tonight.
Take CHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-14-14 |
Houston Texans -3 v. Oakland Raiders | Top | 30-14 |
Win | 111 | 157 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans.
Ladies and gentlemen, these are not the 2013 Houston Texans. This year's defense is mean and nasty, and if you're a starting QB in the NFL, the last thing you want to see in front of you is J.J. Watt on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Watt had one of three sacks on RGIII in the Texans Week 1 win over the Redskins. Houston is on the road in Oakland this week, and Watt and company will be looking to zero in on rookie QB Derek Carr.
The Raiders didn't impress in a loss to the Jets, managing just 158 yards of total offense while allowing the Jets to gain over 400 yards. Any attempt to run the ball was futile, gaining just 25 yards on 15 carries. They also showed a complete inability to stop the run, as the Jets reeled off over 200 yards on the ground.
Don't expect the Raiders to have much success offensively here today against a fierce Houston defense, and we should see the visitors grind out a win on the road. Only asked to cover a couple points, the value lies with the Texans.
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-14-14 |
Seattle Seahawks -5.5 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 21-30 |
Loss | -110 | 156 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks. Even after winning the Super Bowl last season, there are still plenty of skeptics when it comes to Russell Wilson. He hasn't really given anyone any reason to doubt him though, and now that he has a healthy Percy Harvin to throw to, I expect his numbers to increase significantly in 2014. He completed 69% of his passes for 191 yards and a pair of TDs in Week 1, and that was against a pretty solid Packers defense. The Chargers are coming off a short week, while Seattle has had nine days to prepare a game plan for today's contest. Despite the fact that this game is in San Diego, it still looks like a good spot for Wilson and the Hawks. Phillip Rivers looked out of sorts against Arizona last week, and the Chargers blew an 11 point fourth quarter lead. It won't get any easier against the defending champs just six days later. Take SEA. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-14-14 |
Jacksonville Jaguars v. Washington Redskins -5.5 | Top | 10-41 |
Win | 100 | 153 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins. I'm expecting a big game from former Eagle DeSean Jackson today - not even three turnovers in the first half was enough to stop his former team from defeating the Jaguars by a score of 34-17 in Week 1. Jackson meanwhile had eight catches for 62 yards against a tough Houston defense last week. He should find more room at home this week against a Jaguars that still looks like they have trouble defending the pass. There is a lot of talk about how much Jacksonville has improved, but surrendering 34 unanswered points in the second half last week proves that they still have a long way to go. The Redskins however sure showed signs that this defense is going to be greatly improved after ranking near worst in the NFL a year ago. Washington hung around in Houston last week, only conceding 17 points in a loss. Getting the Skins at home favored by less than a TD seems like quite a bargain to me. Take WASH. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-14-14 |
New England Patriots -225 v. Minnesota Vikings | Top | 30-7 |
Win | 100 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New England Patriots ML.
With the news that Adrian Peterson will miss today's home game versus the Patriots, Minnesota will turn to backup Matt Asiata to carry the load. Fantasy owners will take note that when Peterson last missed a game, Asiata scored three rushing TDs. He still only had 50 yards on over 30 carries in that game though, so don't think for a second that the Vikes won't miss Peterson.
The situation with Peterson also has the potential to cause a toxic atmosphere in the locker room, as different players may have varying opinions on whether or not to support their teammate. This comes at a terrible time for Minnesota, as Matt Cassel is still trying to establish himself as a bonafide starter. Losing the safety net of handing off to a former MVP puts Cassel in a precarious position.
The Pats offensive line made plenty of mistakes in the loss to Miami in Week 1, but I'm expecting Bill Belichick to have worked out most of those issues, getting everyone on the same page for this weeks game. Ultimately the loss of their best player should prove to be too much for the Vikings to overcome. Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-14 |
Penn State -175 v. Rutgers | Top | 13-10 |
Win | 100 | 113 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Penn State Nittany Lions.
The Nittany Lions QB appears to have a dream match-up this week against a Rutgers team than can't stop the pass. Hackenberg is fourth in the nation in passing yards, despite the fact that he played a pretty solid UCF team overseas in Week 1, and then flew back stateside to play at home versus Akron a week later. He wasn't quite as sharp last week as he was in the opener, but perhaps there was a little lingering jet-lag. We already saw Connar Halliday light it up against Rutgers in Week 1, throwing for 532 yards and five TDs. Don't be surprised to see Hackenberg put up similar numbers this week.
The Scarlet Knights are 2-0, but their Week 1 victory over Washington State doesn't look quite as impressive after the Cougars lost to Nevada the following week. Last week they won at home by a score of 38-25, but allowing 25 points doesn't look so hot. This is the same Howard team that lost to Akron 41-0 in Week 1, and the Nittany Lions spanked the Zips at Happy Valley last Saturday.
Take PSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-14 |
UCLA -7.5 v. Texas | Top | 20-17 |
Loss | -110 | 113 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UCLA Bruins.
Don't mess with Texas? Well this Texas team is a complete mess at the moment, and they had their butts served to them at home last week in a 41-7 loss to BYU. They host UCLA this week, and the Bruins haven't impressed much either so far. That being said, the Bruins have shown signs of being close to where they want to be, while the same can not be said for Texas.
Longhorns QB David Ash is out indefinitely with a concussion, and backup Tyrone Swoopes doesn't look ready to replace him. The 6'4 sophomore threw for 176 yards with a TD and an INT against BYU last week, and he was sacked three times. Coach Strong blamed some of his struggles on poor play by the offensive line, but the fact that they couldn't run the ball didn't help either. Jonathan Gray and Malcom Brown were unable to muster 100 yards between them, gaining just 82 yards on 35 carries.
It was a dual threat QB in Taysom Hill that gave the Longhorns fits last week, running for 99 yards and three TDs. That doesn't bode well for Texas as they get set to defend Brett Hundley, who is considered one of the premier dual threat QBs in college football. Hundley was on his game last week, throwing for 396 yards and three TDs in a win over Memphis.
Take UCLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-14 |
Purdue v. Notre Dame UNDER 59 | Top | 14-30 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PUR@ND to go UNDER the total.
The Irish might be due for a let down after such an emotional win last week, shutting out rivals Michigan 31-0 in the final scheduled meeting between the two schools. They host another Big-10 team this Saturday, and the Irish are a 29 point favorite versus Purdue. There is no doubt that the Irish should win this game, after all.. they have won six straight against the Boilermakers since 2008. Most of those games were very close though, and four of the six went under the total. The two games that went over ... still didn't see enough points to go over tonight's total.
The line opened in the mid fifties, and has been bet up several points since. Notre Dame doesn't look like they are going to surrender many points to an inferior opponent, and the Irish have a history of playing low scoring games at home. The under is 34-16-1 in Fighting Irish last 51 games overall. I expect the Irish to punish the Boilermakers with the run, while shutting them down completely.
My Prediction: Notre Dame wins 41-10.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-14 |
Georgia -5.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 35-38 |
Loss | -112 | 108 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Georgia Bulldogs.
Coming off a rather pedestrian performance against Clemson (131 yards, no TDs), not a lot of fantasy owners are going to get excited about the Bulldogs quarterback this week. Todd Gurley did it all offensively for Georgia in their opening day win over the Tigers, running for 198 yards and three TDs. This won't go unnoticed by the Gamecocks, who desperately need to win this game in order to salvage their season. Steve Spurrier is likely going to gamble, stacking up against the run in an effort to stop Gurley, which could open things up for Mason in the passing game. Daring him to throw the ball could result in a disaster for South Carolina, as they have been lit up for over 800 yards passing and four TDs in the first two weeks of the season. While Mason wasn't flashy in his debut as a starter, a 69% completion rate without an interception gives plenty of reason for optimism.
The Gamecocks have been particularly vulnerable against the pass, but it's not as if they have stopped the run either. East Carolina averaged over six yards per carry at William Bryce Stadium last week, and Texas A&M scored four rushing TDs the week before. When these teams played in Georgia last year, Gurley ran for 132 yards and a TD, and the Bulldogs won by double-digits. I expect a similar scoreline this week, as the Gamecocks have shown no signs of being a contender in the SEC.
Take UGA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-14 |
Arkansas +100 v. Texas Tech | Top | 49-28 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arkansas Razorbacks. The Razorbacks have shown signs of being far better in 2014 than they were last season. In Week 1 they lost 45-21 at Auburn, but that game was a lot closer than the score would indicate. After going to the locker room tied 21-21 at halftime, Arkansas let the game get away from them in the second half. The Razorbacks bounced right back last week, blowing out Nichol State by a score of 73-7. They will take on Texas Tech in Lubbock this week, and the Red Raiders have looked terrible so far. QB Davis Webb was picked off twice in Week 1, and he completed less than 55% of his passes against UTEP last week. Both of their first two games have been too close comfort, despite playing inferior opposition. UTEP ran all over the Red Raiders defense last week, picking up 277 yards and three rushing TDs. Arkansas came very close to running for 500 yards last week, punching in six TDs on the ground. The Razorbacks should be able to punish Texas Tech with their running attack here on Saturday. My Prediction: Arkansas wins 41-33 Take ARK GL, Jesse Schule |
09-12-14 |
Toledo +10 v. Cincinnati | Top | 34-58 |
Loss | -110 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Toledo Rockets.
In Cincinnati we will see the long anticipated debut of former five star recruit Gunner Kiel, who will start at quarterback for the Bearcats. Coming out of highschool he was garnering comparisons to Peyton Manning, but he sat out last year after transferring from Notre Dame. The Bearcats bring back plenty of talent, and there is every reason to think they will be good again this year, but it appears to be just a little overly optimistic asking them to cover double digits against a quality opponent.
Toledo lost on the road to the Missouri Tigers on Saturday, but the game was a lot closer than the 49-24 score would indicate. Kareem Hunt had a big day, running for 148 yards and three TDs against a stout SEC defense. He could find even more holes here tonight against a Cincinnati team playing it's first game of the season.
With a QB that hasn't played a competitive game in over three years, this Bearcats offense may just take a while to get it's groove on. The Rockets limited Missouri to an average of just 3.8 yards per rushing attempt, and they picked off QB Maty Mauk twice. The most recent meeting between these two teams was a 29-23 Rockets win in Toledo.
Toledo is a good bet when coming off a loss, the Rockets are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Take TOL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-11-14 |
Houston v. BYU UNDER 57 | Top | 25-33 |
Loss | -110 | 66 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOU@BYU to go UNDER the total.
The Houston Cougars scored 46 points in a home loss to BYU last season, but I don't expect Houston to have any success offensively here in Provo. BYU is coming off consecutive road wins, allowing a total of 17 points. Last week they held the Texas Longhorns to just seven points in Texas.
Houston meanwhile hasn't looked nearly as good offensively as they were a year ago, despite a 47-0 win over Grambling State last week. Cougars QB John O'Korn turned in a pretty pedestrian effort against an inferior opponent at home, completing 14-of-24 attempts for just 200 yards and one TD. This comes after he was picked off four times in the home opener versus UTSA.
On the defensive side of the ball though, Houston hasn't been too bad. They pitched a shutout last week, and UTSA only had 263 yards of total offense in Week 1. They aren't going to stop BYU, but they might be able to stop the Cougars from running up the score.
Houston has seen the total go under in six of it's last seven overall, while BYU has seen the total fall below the number in nine of it's last 10 games coming off a game with 200+ rushing yards. The home team should have no shortage of success running the ball tonight, burning up the clock as they do so.
My prediction: BYU wins 37-13
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-11-14 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +3 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 6-26 |
Loss | -125 | 35 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
I'm betting on the Steelers tonight, and it has absolutely nothing to do with Ray Rice. I don't know about you, but I am sick to death of hearing about the guy. The media just beats this story to death. At the end of the day, he was never going to play tonight, so the recent scandal shouldn't have any impact on this game.
That being said, Baltimore's two running backs Justin Forsett and Bernard Pierce don't exactly strike fear into opposing defenses. Pierce was completely ineffective in Week 1, and while Forsett had a good game, he doesn't have the size to carry the load at 5'8 197 lbs.
The Steelers on the other hand didn't have any trouble running the ball against a pretty solid Browns defense, with Le'Veon Bell running for 109 yards on 21 carries. Bell was also a threat in the passing game, with six receptions for 88 yards.
Ben Roethlisberger had a good game against the Browns, throwing for a career high 275 yards in the first half, and eventually leading a game winning drive in the fourth quarter. The same can't be said for Joe Flacco, who didn't look particularly sharp.
My prediction: Steelers win 23-17
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-11-14 |
Louisiana Tech v. North Texas -165 | Top | 42-21 |
Loss | -165 | 34 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 2* play on the North Texas Mean Green.
I don't normally get too excited about a Thursday game between a couple of average teams hailing from the C-USA, but after seeing such significant line movement, I decided to take a closer look at this one. The Mean Green opened as a favorite of more than a TD, but that line has come all the way down as low as a field goal.
So why all the money on LA-Tech? Well the Aggies are coming off a 48-20 upset win on the road versus the ULL Ragin' Cajuns, who are supposed to be a powerhouse in this conference. Further investigation reveals that this win was aided by three ULL turnovers, and a 99 yard TD run to open the scoring for Aggies.
While they got all the bounces last week, I think it's a little premature to think they are going to come into Texas and compete with the Mean Green, a team that defeated them 28-13 in Louisiana last year.
North Texas beat up on SMU last week, winning at home by a score of 43-6. The Mean Green defense had SMU going backwards when they tried to run the ball, and the Mustangs totaled 10 yards on 14 attempts.
My Prediction: North Texas wins 27-21
Take UNT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-08-14 |
San Diego Chargers +3 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 17-18 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the San Diego Chargers.
The Cardinals open the 2014 season at home in a Monday night game versus the San Diego Chargers. Arizona is a favorite here, despite the fact that they are a little banged up. Running back Andre Ellington is suffering from a foot injury that could keep him out tonight, if he is able to start, he will be playing through pain and will likely see limited touches. Backups Stepfan Taylor and Jonathan Dwyer don't inspire a lot of confidence, and running the ball could be a tough task for the home team here.
The same can not be said for the Chargers, who have plenty of depth at the running back position, with Danny Woodhead, Ryan Matthews and Donald Brown. They have also shored up the defense with the addition of Pro Bowl corner Brandon Flowers.
"We're a stronger team than last year," said Dwight Freeney, who returns after missing most of last season. "Ithink we have a pretty good feel of each other, all we have to do is go out and execute. We have all the pieces."
The Cardinals had all the pieces last year, with the NFL's #1 defense against the run (6th in total defense). They lost a Pro Bowl DT during the pre-season though, and safety Tyrann Mathieu is questionable with a knee injury.
This game could be decided by San Diego's pass rush, and if Dwight Freeney can get to Carson Palmer, the Chargers should win this game outright. You gotta like his chances when you consider that Palmer was sacked 41 times and threw the second-most interceptions (22) last season.
My Prediction: Chargers win 23-21
Take SD.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-07-14 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7.5 | Top | 24-31 |
Loss | -105 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos The Colts were 5-3 on the road last year, but they probably should have been 3-5. Why? Because they were blown out in the first half at Houston, and then staged an improbable comeback in the second half to steal a game that appeared to already be lost. They went on to do the same thing two weeks later at Tennessee, and then they did it again in the playoffs at home against the Chiefs. It took a whole lot of Luck (pun definitely intended) for the Colts to win 11 games last year, and I don't like their chances of repeating that success here in 2014. They have a tough match-up in Week 1, on the road at Denver, and this game has blowout written all over it. Peyton Manning rewrote the record books last year, throwing for nearly 5,500 yards and 55 TDs. He won't have Wes Welker in Week 1, but that's unlikely to slow him in the slightest bit. Demarius and Julius Thomas, along with Emanuel Sanders will certainly give him enough targets to choose from . Denver will be looking to avenge a loss at Indianapolis last year, and with a greatly improved defense and the advantage of playing at Mile High Stadium, they shouldn't have any trouble executing their revenge. The Broncos won last year's season opener by a score of 49-27 against the Ravens, and I expect a similar scoreline tonight. Take DEN, GL, Jesse Schule |
09-07-14 |
Carolina Panthers v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -139 | Top | 20-14 |
Loss | -139 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Tampa Bucs.
The Panthers are in a tough spot in Week 1, playing on the road in Tampa with Cam Newton's status uncertain as he suffered cracked ribs in the pre-season. The Bucs should be vastly improved with Lovie Smith as coach, and a veteran quarterback in Josh McCown coming over from Chicago.
I think the Panthers overachieved last year, and they should come crashing back down to earth here in 2014. Cam Newton will need to give them leadership in the absence of Steve Smith, and he will also need to get on the same page with a receiving corps that has several new faces. At less than 100%, I don't like his chances of figuring all this out in Tampa.
It remains to be seen just how well Josh McCown will fit in the Tampa offense, and few expect him to be as successful as he was last year with the Bears. He won't have to do anything special to improve on the performances of last year's starters though. Over the last 11 seasons, Carolina has covered the spread just twice in their season opener.
My prediction: Tampa wins 24-13
Take TB,
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-07-14 |
Washington Redskins v. Houston Texans -140 | Top | 6-17 |
Win | 100 | 249 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans.
Houston is coming off a terrible 2-14 season, but they might just be the best team in history to finish with just two wins. Nine of those 14 losses came in games decided by seven points or less, and five of those games were decided by three points or fewer. Despite their losing record, their defense ranked #1 overall against the pass until the final few weeks of the season when they were blown out by Denver.
The Texans host Washington in Week 1, and I expect this to be a one sided contest in favor of the home team. With J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney on defense for the Texans, it could be a long day for Robert Griffin.
The Redskins (Oh yeah, I'm calling them the Redskins) will hope that the addition of DeSean Jackson will make a difference, but offense wasn't really the problem last year. The defense is still a serious question mark for the visitors, and I expect Houston put up a lot of points here at home. Ryan Fitzpatrick steps in to replace Matt Schuab at quarterback, and he's fortunate to be coming into a favorable situation. He won't be asked to do too much, and this is a role he should thrive in.
My Prediction: Houston wins 31-17
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-07-14 |
Jacksonville Jaguars v. Philadelphia Eagles -10 | Top | 17-34 |
Win | 100 | 249 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Jaguars have been the laughing stock of the NFL for several years now, but pundits are predicting serious improvement this year. Oh yeah? I'll believe it when I see it, but I think these cats have bitten off more than they can chew in Week 1.
Chip Kelly had his ups and downs last season, introducing one of the most radical offensive systems the NFL has every seen, but his NFL coaching debut was an overwhelming success overall. I expect things to be a lot smoother here in year 2 under the former Oregon boss, as the players have had plenty of time to get comfortable in this high octane offensive scheme.
The offense certainly looked good in the pre-season, as they averaged 33 points per game, and won both their home games by a combined 40 point margin. Nick Foles stepped in last year and threw for 27 TDs and just 2 INTs, winning nine of the 11 games he started.
Jacksonville was always going to struggle to keep up offensively, but losing Cecil Shorts and Justin Blackmon only adds insult to injury. Chad Henne threw more INTs (14) than he did TDs (13) last year.
My Prediction: Eagles win 38-20
Take PHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-07-14 |
New England Patriots -4.5 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 20-33 |
Loss | -105 | 249 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New England Patriots.
The Pats come in as road favorites, despite the fact that they lost here in Miami a year ago. This year's squad has a lot more going for it than the Patriots of 2013, fresh off Aaron Hernandez murder scandal. They brought in Darrelle Revis on defense, and a healthy Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola should make a world of difference for New England.
The Fish don't give us much reason to be optimistic about their offense, it's the same old quarterback with most of the same faces. Ryan Tannehill is an average quarterback at best, and with Brandon Browner and Revis camped out in the Pats secondary, it should be a "no fly zone' on Sunday.
Tannehill had a pretty pedestrian pre-season, throwing for just one TD and one INT, posting a quarterback rating of 86.5. I wouldn't even think of picking Gronkowski in my fantasy pool, but I like his chances of having a big game in Week 1.
My Prediction: Pats win 27-17
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-06-14 |
Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | Top | 24-37 |
Loss | -110 | 75 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CSU@BSU to go UNDER the total.
The Broncos lost to Ole Miss in Week 1 by a score of 35-14, but the game was actually a lot closer than the score would indicate. The Rebels took a 7-6 lead into the fourth quarter, before scoring three quick TDs, putting the game out of reach. Boise State QB Grant Hedrick completed 36-of-46 attempts for 264 yards and a TD, but he was picked off four times. Of course he was up against a strong defense hailing from the SEC, but don't think it's going to be a cakewalk against CSU.
The Rams defense turned in a solid effort last week, limited the Buffaloes to just 17 points. Colorado State used a power running game to defeat rivals Colorado, and they ran for 266 yards on 45 carries. Both Dee Hart and Tre Darells ran for over 100 yards, and the dynamic duo had three TDs between them. Life should be a little tougher here on the Blue Turf tonight though, the Broncos didn't give up much on the ground against Ole Miss. The Rebels only averaged 2.1 yards per carry, with 71 yards rushing total.
The Broncos have seen the total go under in four of their last five overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jess Schule |
09-06-14 |
Michigan v. Notre Dame UNDER 56 | Top | 0-31 |
Win | 100 | 72 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MICH@ND to go Under the total. The Michigan Wolverines will travel to South Bend for the final scheduled meeting against rivals Notre Dame. Both these teams are coming off blowout wins over cupcakes in Week 1, but we should see a spirited battle here this week, and I expect points to be few and far between.
The Irish will try to avenge a 41-30 loss at Michigan last year, and they should have more success stopping the Wolverines at home. The last time Michigan played at South Bend, we saw the home team prevail by a score of 13-6. In fact low scoring games are the norm in South Bend, with the Irish seeing the total go under in 25 of their last 36 home games.
Everett Golson threw for 292 yards and a pair of TDs in the win over Rice last week, but he was just 3-of-8 for 30 yards and was picked off twice versus Michigan in the last meeting here at South Bend. He did not play in last year's loss at Michigan.
Seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams have had a total below 50, yet the total in this game is far higher than usual.
Take the UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-06-14 |
BYU -115 v. Texas | Top | 41-7 |
Win | 100 | 40 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the BYU Cougars.
Texas looked pretty bad in a loss to BYU last year, and that was with David Ash at quarterback. Ash will miss this game due to another concussion, while starting center Dominic Espinosa is out with an ankle injury.
Charlie Strong will turn to Tyrone Swoopes who makes his first career start. The coach's comments don't exactly exude confidence: "There's enough around him. I told him, 'I don't need a great player, I just need you to manage. You have two good running backs behind you. You put that ball in Brown and Gray's hands and let that offensive line come off."
Even before the injuries, this was always going to be a tough game for Texas, who had no answer for Taysom Hill in the last meeting. It doesn't figure to be any easier this time around, as he's coming off of a road win in which he was responsible for 405 of 513 total yards and 30 of 35 total points.
Running back Jamaal Williams did not play against the Huskies in Week 1, serving a suspension for violating team rules. He's expected back this week, and that's not good news for the Longhorns, as he ripped through the Texas defense for 182 yards in the last meeting.
Take BYU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-06-14 |
Northern Illinois v. Northwestern -7 | Top | 23-15 |
Loss | -106 | 68 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Northwestern Wildcats.
The Wildcats lost their home opener to California, in what was considered to be quite an upset. I think that it would be a mistake though to overreact, as the Golden Bears are a decent team hailing from the powerful Pac-12 Conference. Northwestern will host the Northern Illinois Huskies this week, and I spent all of last season telling everyone who would listen that the Huskies are grossly overrated.
Finally the Huskies were exposed as frauds in the MAC Championship game last December, losing by 20 points to the Bowling Green Falcons. They lose star QB Jordan Lynch, who was mentioned as a Heisman contender leading the team to a 12-0 record during the regular season.
A 55-3 win over Presbyterian last week doesn't really help us learn anything about this team, but the fact that they split the snaps between two quarterbacks tell you that they are sure to miss Lynch.
The Wildcats got off to an ugly start against Cal, but they outscored the Bears 17-7 in the second half. I think they'll get off to a much better start against an inferior opponent today, and I can't see this team from the MAC hanging in there on the road against a Big-10 opponent like Northwestern. The line here is a little off, the Wildcats should be favored by double-digits.
Take NW.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-06-14 |
USC v. Stanford -140 | Top | 13-10 |
Loss | -140 | 68 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Stanford Cardinal. The USC Trojans are a sexy pick in the Pac-12 this year, and everyone is expecting them to be greatly improved under new coach Steve Sarkisian. I think it's asking a little too much of the Trojans to come into Palo Alto and upset the Cardinal this week though. Stanford has been dominant at home during the David Shaw era, going undefeated since a 53-30 loss to Oregon back in 2011. Of course they executed revenge for that loss by defeating the Ducks at home last year by a score of 26-20.
Skeptics will say that losses on the offensive line will lead to the Cardinal taking a step back this year, but so far that hasn't been the case. "They play with a chip on their shoulder," said quarterback Kevin Hogan about his offensive line. "They know that we lost all those great guys on the offensive line the past couple years. They want to prove that they're that next elite group, which I think they are. It helps motivate them."
The Cardinal defense pitched a shutout in Week 1, albeit against an inferior opponent. There's still every reason to expect this defense to be tough, and we should see another closely contested, low scoring battle between these two Pac-12 rivals. I'll take the home team as the slight favorite, as they look to extend their nation-best 17 game home win streak.
Take STAN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-05-14 |
Washington State -175 v. Nevada | Top | 13-24 |
Loss | -175 | 51 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Washington State Cougars.
The Cougars put up plenty of points in their home opener, but fell to Rutgers by a score of 41-38. You can't put any of the blame on starting QB Connor Halliday, who completed 71% of his passes for 532 yards and five TDs. It was the Washington State defense than failed to stop Rutgers from running the ball. The Scarlet Knights gained 215 yards and three TDs on 43 carries. I think they can turn in a better effort against a Nevada team that plays in a far weaker conference, and has a much less talented offensive line.
The Wolfpack are basically a poor man's version of the Cougars, they score a lot of points but are pretty hopeless on defense. Fajardo isn't half the QB that Halliday is though, and there is a lot less talent on both sides of the ball.
The Cougars have covered the points in 13 of their last 16 games when coming off a loss, and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. The superior team is just a small favorite here, and the value lies with a play on the visitors.
Take WSU.
GL, Jesse Schule |