12-14-14 |
Dallas Cowboys +3.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 38-27 |
Win | 100 | 163 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys. The NFC East is up for grabs tonight in Philadelphia, as the Eagles will host the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles crushed the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas, but tonight's game is a completely different situation.
The Cowboys were playing on short rest in the last meeting, a situation that is particularly tough with a veteran QB playing through injuries, and a back that leads the league in rushing, and has a heavy workload.
Tony Romo and DeMarco Murray should be in better shape here in Philly tonight, as the Cowboys last played 10 days ago at Chicago, beating the Bears by a score of 41-28.
This time it could be the Eagles that are worse for wear, coming off a hard fought loss at home to the Seahawks last Sunday.
Eagles defensive coordinator Bill Davis says it best: "That game on Thanksgiving means nothing to this game right now,"
"Every team that has beat us so far this year, we'd love to have another shot at, because we believe if we play better we can beat anybody. "And they believe the same thing coming into this game." With the Cowboys on the right side of a key number, I like Dallas as a dog. Take DAL. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-14-14 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks OVER 37.5 | Top | 7-17 |
Loss | -111 | 110 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SF@SEA to go OVER the total.
The Seahawks will host the Niners in Seattle this Sunday, but this matchup doesn't come with as much hype as it had in previous seasons. These two teams were expected to be battling for first place in the NFC West, but San Francisco is now in danger of missing the playoffs all together.
The Seahawks however have turned things around after a rough start, and they have their destiny in their own hands. If Seattle wins it's final three games, it will clinch another division title. The Hawks have won three straight, and one of those games was a 19-3 victory at San Francisco. Colin Kaepernick was sacked four times, throwing a pair of interceptions and completing just 16-of-29 pass attempts for 121 yards.
He's not going to find it any easier this week, as he has really struggled in previous trips to the Pacific Northwest. The Niners have been blown out in Seattle in each of the last two seasons, and Kaepernick has thrown four picks and just one TD in those games.
The last four meetings between these two teams have seen the total go under, and Seattle has won three of those games. The total for today's game is much lower than it was in any of those previous contests, and this 49ers team is not nearly as good as it was in previous seasons.
Seattle should be able to run up the score a little on this beat up defense of San Francisco, as injuries have been piling up for the Niners.
Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-14-14 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Seattle Seahawks -9.5 | Top | 7-17 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks will host the Niners in Seattle this Sunday, but this matchup doesn't come with as much hype as it had in previous seasons. These two teams were expected to be battling for first place in the NFC West, but San Francisco is now in danger of missing the playoffs all together.
The Seahawks however have turned things around after a rough start, and they have their destiny in their own hands. If Seattle wins it's final three games, it will clinch another division title. The Hawks have won three straight, and one of those games was a 19-3 victory at San Francisco. Colin Kaepernick was sacked four times, throwing a pair of interceptions and completing just 16-of-29 pass attempts for 121 yards.
He's not going to find it any easier this week, as he has really struggled in previous trips to the Pacific Northwest. The Niners have been blown out in Seattle in each of the last two seasons, and Kaepernick has thrown four picks and just one TD in those games.
The last four meetings between these two teams have seen the total go under, and Seattle has won three of those games. The total for today's game is much lower than it was in any of those previous contests, and this 49ers team is not nearly as good as it was in previous seasons.
Seattle should be able to run up the score a little on this beat up defense of San Francisco, as injuries have been piling up for the Niners.
Take SEA. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-14-14 |
Miami Dolphins v. New England Patriots -7 | Top | 13-41 |
Win | 100 | 155 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New England Patriots.
New England can clinch another division title with a win over the Miami Dolphins Sunday, and they look to extend a 15-game winning streak at Foxboro. The Pats are coming off consecutive home wins by a 20+ point margin, over teams that each have a better record than Miami. They beat the Broncos 43-21, and they defeated the Detroit Lions by a score of 34-9.
There is a revenge factor here as well, as the Dolphins rallied to beat New England in Miami in Week 1. The Dolphins have lost three of their last five, and two of their last three on the road. During that span, they beat the Bills in a game that was influenced by a phantom pass interference call, and escaped from New York with a win over the Jets in a game they trailed right up until the final minutes of the game.
The Pats have outscored Miami 51-17 winning their last two home meetings with the Dolphins, and New England is 7-0 ATS in it's last seven home games versus a team with a winning record.
The Dolphins defense has allowed 407.7 yards per game over their last three, and we can't expect them to improve on those numbers here at Foxboro.
Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-14-14 |
Oakland Raiders +11.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 13-31 |
Loss | -125 | 153 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oakland Raiders.
The Kansas City Chiefs are a double digit favorite this week against the Raiders, a team that they lost to in Oakland just a few weeks ago. That was the Raider first win of the season, and Oakland has gone 1-1 since. Last week they upset the San Francisco 49ers, winning 24-23.
The Chiefs haven't shown any indication that they deserve to be such a heavy favorite here, as they haven't been able to stop the run at all in recent games. They've allowed third string running backs to go over 100 yards in three straight losses. Oakland's Latavius Murray only needed four carries to gain 112 yards and two TDs in the win over Kansas City on November 20. Denver's C.J. Anderson and Arizona's Kerwynn Williams have shredded them the last two weeks.
Murray did not play in Oakland's ugly loss at St. Louis, but he returned last week running for 76 yards on 23 carries in the win over the 49ers. You can expect him to go over 100 again against a much weaker Chiefs run defense.
Oakland's defense looked pretty good last week against the run, stuffing Frank Gore limiting him to just 63 yards. I like the Raiders to hang on and cover an inflated spread here in KC.
Take OAK.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-11-14 |
Arizona Cardinals v. St. Louis Rams -185 | Top | 12-6 |
Loss | -185 | 79 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Rams.
To say that the Rams defense is on a roll, would be an understatement of epic proportions. St. Louis is coming off consecutive shutout wins, outscoring the Raiders and the Redskins 76-0.
The Rams host the Arizona Cardinals on Thursday Night, and the Cardinals are 10-3, still in first place in the NFC West. Starting QB Carson Palmer is done for the year though, and backup Drew Stanton has not played well in recent games. He completed just 15-of-30 attempts for 239 yards and a TD against the Chiefs last week, but he's thrown for just one TD and three picks so far in his four starts on the road.
Stanton is going to have a tough time staying upright as he faces a Rams pass rush that has 13 sacks in it's last two games. "Guys are playing lights-out right now," said Quinn, who has 10 1/2 sacks on the season. "Hopefully, we just keep it going."
Shaun Hill did a decent job filling in at QB for the Rams last week, throwing for 183 yards and a pair of TDs on 13-of-22 passing. It was the running game that accounted for most of the offense though, rushing for 172 yards and averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Tre Mason has been the workhorse, and he has 183 yards and a pair of TDs the last two weeks.
This Arizona defense has played well all year, but injuries threaten to derail their season. They are likely to be without CB Antonio Cromartie and safety Tyrann Mathieu against the Rams.
Take STL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-08-14 |
Atlanta Falcons v. Green Bay Packers -11 | Top | 37-43 |
Loss | -115 | 180 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.
Most of the time, betting on sports is a lot more difficult than it looks. Sometimes though, the obvious choice is the correct choice, and the public lays a beating on the bookmakers. I think tonight's game in Green Bay will prove to be a classic example of a "no brainer".
Never mind the fact that the Packers are undefeated at home (6-0), while Atlanta is just 2-4 on the road. The Falcons are a dome team, playing outdoors on the road on grass in December. Their two road wins came at Carolina and Tampa Bay, not exactly comparable to the bitter cold Wisconsin weather they are sure to see at Lambeau.
The Packers have crushed the opposition at home this year, winning all six of their games by an average margin of over 23 points. Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 32 TDs and just three INTs this season, and 20 of those touchdown passes have come in his six home games. He hasn't thrown an interception at home since the 2012 season.
The Falcons pass defense ranks dead last in the NFL, allowing over 284 passing yards per game so far. Rodgers and the Packers are likely looking at another blowout win at Lambeau.
Take GB.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-07-14 |
Seattle Seahawks +2 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 24-14 |
Win | 100 | 160 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is putting the rest of the league on notice.. The Legion of Boom is back! The Seahawks are coming off consecutve dominant victories, allowing a total of six points in those games. It's no coincidence that they've recently got a few key players back on defense, and they are starting to look as dominant as they did last year. The Eagles are still undefeated at home, and they've won 10 in row in Philly dating back to last season. Before you get too exited about the home field advantage, consider that they lost 10 straight home games between 2012 and the middle of last season.
Philly is coming off back to back wins over Tennessee and Dallas, but they were crushed in Green Bay by the packers three weeks ago. This Seattle team will be the best they've seen so far, and I don't think playing at home is going to make much difference.
Even though the Eagles have won three of four with Sanchez as a starter, he's still thrown as many interceptions as he has TDs in his last three starts.
Russell Wilson has been great for the Seahawks all year, and he's one of the best in the business at taking care of the football. He completed 15-of-22 attempts for 236 yards and a TD last week on the road at San Francisco.
Success on the road is nothing new for Seattle, as they have covered the spread in nine of their last 12 road games versus teams with a winning record.
Take SEA. GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-07-14 |
Seattle Seahawks v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 48.5 | Top | 24-14 |
Win | 100 | 52 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the SEA@PHI to go UNDER thre total. Seattle is putting the rest of the league on notice.. The Legion of Boom is back! The Seahawks are coming off consecutve dominant victories, allowing a total of six points in those games. It's no coincidence that they've recently got a few key players back on defense, and they are starting to look as dominant as they did last year. The Eagles are still undefeated at home, and they've won 10 in row in Philly dating back to last season. Before you get too exited about the home field advantage, consider that they lost 10 straight home games between 2012 and the middle of last season. I expect Mark Sanchez and the Eagles offense to have trouble taking flight tonight, and Seattle is likely to pound away with the running game. While the Eagles have piled on the points against inferior opponents, they've seen the total go under in five of the last six versus teams with a winning record. The total in today's game appears to far too high.
Take UNDER. GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-07-14 |
Buffalo Bills v. Denver Broncos -9 | Top | 17-24 |
Loss | -110 | 154 h 30 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Denver Broncos.
Denver returns home after a dominant display in Kansas City, spanking the Chiefs by a score of 29-16. The Broncos host Buffalo today, and I find it hard to imagine that the Bills can come into Mile High and compete.
Denver's offense has a new weapon, as rookie RB C.J. Anderson has picked up 335 yards and a TD in wins over Miami and Kansas City. He's thrived behind a rejuvenated offensive line, and the Chiefs only recorded one sack on Manning last Sunday. Manning has thrown 21 TD passes and just two INTs while leading the Broncos to a perfect 6-0 home record.
Buffalo's defense has been impressive against inferior opposition, but top tier QBs have exposed this secondary. Both the Chargers and Patriots beat the Bills by double digits in Buffalo. The Bills cornerbacks have also taken some untimely pass interference penalties, so don't be surprised to see flags flying in the Buffalo secondary today.
Denver could get back TE Julius Thomas back, and he leads the NFL with a dozen receiving TDs. The Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-07-14 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Cincinnati Bengals -155 | Top | 42-21 |
Loss | -155 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Pittsburgh Steelers will travel to Cincy to take on the Bengals, and these two teams have been rather hit and miss. That being said, the Bengals have been far better at home, and so have the Steelers.
Pittsburgh has lost on the road at Baltimore, Cleveland and New York. Ben Roethlisberger is having a pretty big year with 3,705 yards, 26 TDs and 8 INTS. Only six of those touchdowns came on the road though, and he's thrown five picks in those games. He's likely to play today despite suffering a pretty serious hand injury last week. At one point he was forced to hand the ball off with his left hand, due to numbness in his right hand.
The Bengals 14 game unbeaten streak at home came to an end in Week 10 when they were embarrassed by the Cleveland Browns. They've since won three straight on the road, and I like their chances here at home today. They are still 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 home games, and the Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on artificial turf.
The last time the Steelers came to Cincy the Bengals handed them a 20-10 loss. I expect a similar story here in this contest.
Take CINCY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-14 |
Wisconsin v. Ohio State +155 | Top | 0-59 |
Win | 155 | 135 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ohio State Buckeyes.
The Buckeyes are down to their third string QB as they get set to face Wisconsin in the Big-10 Championship Game. J.T. Barrett exceeded all expectations filling in for Braxton Miller, but he suffered a season ending broken ankle in last week's win over Michigan. Cardale Jones has only made a couple of brief appearances this season, completing 19-of-17 attempts for 118 yards and a pair of TDs.
I think it would be naive to assume that Jones isn't capable of running this offense. He's surrounded by a talented group of wide receivers, an explosive running back in Ezekiel Elliot.
Wisconisn leans heavily on it's running game, and if the Buckeyes defense can contain Mevlin Gordon, it will put pressure on Badgers QB Joel Stave. He hasn't exactly been lighting it up, with 8TDs and 4 INTs on the season. Ohio State is just a better team than Wisconsin, and they shouldn't need Cardale Jones to do anything spectacular. I think the Buckeyes can win with a conservative game plan and solid defense.
Take OSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-14 |
Kansas State v. Baylor -7 | Top | 27-38 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Baylor Bears. The Baylor Bears are undefeated at home with a 6-0 record, and with the exception of a 61-58 win over TCU, the rest of those games were blowouts. The Bears offense is averaging almost 50 points per game, more than any other team in the country.
The Wildcats are 3-1 on the road, with an ugly loss to TCU by a score of 41-20. They also failed to impress in a close win at Iowa State, winning by just four points (32-28).
Baylor beat the Wildcats on their own turf by a score of 35-25 last season, and hammered them 52-24 in Waco the year before. This Baylor offense is almost impossible to stop at home, and I expect to see them outscore K-State again tonight.
How good are the Bears at home? They are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 home games, and they aren't asked to cover too big a number here all things considered.
Take Baylor.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-06-14 |
Missouri v. Alabama OVER 48.5 | Top | 13-42 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MIZZ@BAMA to go OVER the total.
The Crimson Tide are coming off a wild 55-44 win over Auburn in the Iron Bowl, and they are heavily favored in the SEC Championship game at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.
Missouri has won six straight, and the Tigers defense is ranked 13th in the nation with opponent's averaging under 20 points per game. They've struggled against elite running backs though, allowing Toledo's Kareem Hunt to run for 143 yards and a TD in Week 2, Indiana's Tevin Coleman to run for 132 yards and a TD in Week 4, and Georgia's Nick Chubb to run for 143 yards and a TD in Week 6.
Alabama's T.J. Yeldon ran for 127 yards and a pair of TDs in the Iron Bowl, and I expect him to have a big game here in Atlanta. Success running the ball should open things up for Blake Sims and Amari Cooper in the passing game.
Before you get too impressed with Missouri's six game win streak and it's 10-2 record, let's look at their schedule. Only one of their 12 opponents is currently ranked in the Top 25, and was a 34-0 home loss to the Georgia Bulldogs. They also lost at home to unranked Indiana, an embarrassing defeat for an SEC team.
I'm expecting Alabama to pile on the points here, and the over is 10-1-1 in the Tide's last 12 neutral site games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-05-14 |
Arizona v. Oregon -13.5 | Top | 13-51 |
Win | 100 | 111 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks.
The Arizona Wildcats upset the The Ducks in Oregon back in October, but I think Oregon will execute it's revenge here in the Pac-12 Championship Game tonight. The Ducks have won seven straight since, and all of those wins came by a margin greater than the spread they are asked to cover tonight.
Marcus Mariota threw for 367 yards and four TDs, in last week's Civil War game, and he also ran for 39 yards and a pair of TDs in the 47-19 win over the Beavers. The Ducks struggled to protect Mariota with a banged up offensive line in the last meeting, but now that they are healthy, I expect to see a different game here in Santa Clara.
"We're just going to play our game. Arizona did a great job setting and dictating tempo in the last meeting," said Mariota. "If we go out and execute to the best of our abilities and execute the game plans that are put in front of us, we should hopefully be successful."
Take ORE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-05-14 |
Northern Illinois -6.5 v. Bowling Green | Top | 51-17 |
Win | 101 | 17 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.
The Falcons upset the Huskies in last year's MAC Championship Game, but the Falcons come into the rematch off back to back losses. Northern Illinois on the other hand has been on top form, winning six in a row.
Falcons QB James Knapke has thrown for just 211 yards on 25-of-51 passing with no TDs in losses to Toledo and Ball State. He's only thrown two TD passes over his last five starts, and such a one-dimensional offense might play into the hands of the opponent tonight.
The Huskies own one of the nation's top running offenses, averaging over 246 rushing yards per game. Cameron Stingily has been the workhorse in the back field, running for 779 yards and 11 TDs.
The Huskies are also a one-dimensional team that leans heavily on the run, but NIU QB Drew Hare has been very accurate when he does throw. He has 11 TDs and just one INT so far this season, throwing for 527 yards and five TDs in his last three starts.
Take NIU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-04-14 |
Dallas Cowboys -3.5 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 41-28 |
Win | 100 | 33 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
Both the Cowboys and the Bears are coming off ugly Thanksgiving day losses, but Dallas still has plenty to play for trailing the Eagles by just one game in the NFC East. The Bears on the other hand have already started thinking ahead to next year, as this season has turned into another lost cause.
Perhaps Chicago needs to seriously reconsider Jay Cutler as it's starting quarterback. He comes into tonight's game with 22 turnovers, the most of any player in the NFL. Cutler was picked off twice, throwing for 280 yards and a pair of TDs in a 34-17 loss to Detroit on Thanksgiving Day.
DeMarco Murray is coming off his worst performance of the season, with just 73 yards and a TD on 20 carries in the loss to the Eagles. He was playing on short rest though, against a very good Philly defense. Tonight he faces a soft Chicago defense off a full week of rest, so expect another 100+ yard performance for the league's leading rusher.
The Bears have a losing record at home, while Dallas is 5-0 on the road. Chicago's defense ranks dead last in the NFL in points allowed, and I don't see them improving on those numbers against the Cowboys Thursday.
Take DAL.
GL, Jesse Schule |
12-04-14 |
Central Florida v. East Carolina -5.5 | Top | 32-30 |
Loss | -106 | 86 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the East Carolina Pirates.
The Pirates will host the Central Florida Knights on Thursday night, and East Carolina is 5-0 at home this season, with all five of those victories coming by a double digit margin. The Knights boast a solid 8-3 record, but they've split their four road games so far.
While the Knights have been very good defensively, the offense has really suffered without Blake Bortles, who was drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars. Justin Holman has taken over at QB for the Knights, and he's really struggled on the road, tossing seven INTs in four starts.
Pirates QB Shane Carden has had no such issues at home, throwing for 14 TDs and just a pair of interceptions in five starts at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. He threw for 338 yards and four TDs in a road win at Tulsa last week, and the Knights are going to have their hands full trying to stop this high octane offensive attack tonight led by the nation's #3 ranked quarterback (passing yards).
The home team has won and covered in five of the last six meetings between these two teams, and I think we get a fair price to back the Pirates at home tonight.
Take ECU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-01-14 |
Miami Dolphins v. NY Jets OVER 41.5 | Top | 16-13 |
Loss | -105 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 2* play MIA@NYJ to go OVER the total.
The Jets put an end to their ugly eight game losing streak with a 20-13 home win over the Steelers before the bye week, but then followed that up with another one-sided loss to Buffalo last Monday night. They are back home tonight to host the Dolphins, and they might be catching The Fish at a good time.
The Dolphins are coming off a tough loss in Denver, with Peyton Manning lighting them up for 257 yards and four TDs. This team ranks among the best in the league against the pass, but key injuries in the secondary could leave them a lot more vulnerable to big plays. They also struggled against the run in Denver, allowing the Broncos to pick up over 200 yards rushing.
I bet against the Dolphins two weeks ago when they hosted the Bills, and Miami ended up getting quite lucky in that game. They trailed at the half, before rallying in the third quarter, aided by a couple of very controversial penalties that went against Buffalo.
These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games, and because of that we see a really low total tonight. The Jets though have played five straight overs at home against teams with a winning record, and I don't see either of these defenses playing particularly well tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-30-14 |
Denver Broncos -108 v. Kansas City Chiefs | Top | 29-16 |
Win | 100 | 57 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos. Denver has a losing record on the road so far, but their losses include an overtime defeat at Seattle, and a loss to the Patriots at Foxboro. The Broncos face a tough challenge playing the Chiefs in Arrowhead tonight, and they catch the Chiefs off a loss to Oakland.
Denver has dominated this series, winning five straight and seven of nine versus the Chiefs since 2010. The emergence of C.J. Anderson could help them continue their dominance against Kansas City. The 23 year old ran for a career high 167 yards in last week's win over Miami, and he has 473 all purpose yards over the last three weeks. The Chiefs have really struggled against the run, ranking 26th overall allowing an average of 129 rushing yards per game.
They do own the league's stingiest pass defense, but I wouldn't count on them slowing down Peyton Manning. The Broncos have faced elite defenses before, and they scored more than 80 points in wins over San Francisco and Arizona.
The loss of safety Eric Berry certainly will be a huge blow to the Chiefs, he's out indefinitely after being diagnoses with cancer.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-30-14 |
New England Patriots v. Green Bay Packers -160 | Top | 21-26 |
Win | 100 | 53 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Green Bay Packers.
The Patriots have won seven straight, but five of those seven wins have come at Foxboro. They face their toughest test so far this season on the road at Green Bay this Sunday, and the Packers are still undefeated at home.
Green Bay's offense has put up over 100 points in it's last two home games, wins over the Bears and Eagles. Their defense has also tightened up, especially against the run. The Packers still rank 30th in the NFL allowing an average of 136 rushing per game. They have been far better since moving Clay Mathews to inside linebacker, and they haven't had an opposing running back run for 100 yards since the bye week.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 30 TDs and just three INTs this season, and 18 of those touchdown passes have come in his five home games. He hasn't thrown an interception at home since the 2012 season.
New England has won back to back games on the road, but they did lose badly at Kansas City earlier in the year. Brandon LaFell had nine catches for 98 yards last week, but injured his shoulder late in the win over the Lions. He's just one of eight players for New England listed as questionable for today's game.
Take GB.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-30-14 |
New Orleans Saints v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | Top | 35-32 |
Loss | -110 | 109 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Saints are coming off another terrible home loss, this time making Justin Forsett of the Ravens look like the reincarnation of Barry Saunders. Their inability to stop the run has plagued them all season, and now they face the league's second leading rusher on the road at Steel Town.
Le'Veon Bell went off for 204 yards and a TD on 33 carries in a win over the Titans on November 17th. He and the Steelers have since had time to rest and prepare for this home game versus the Saints.
The Saints haven't been any better against the pass, and Ben Roethlisberger has thrown 12 TD passes in his last two home games.
Drew Brees simply isn't the same quarterback on the road, and last season only 12 of his 39 TD passes came away from home. Jimmy Graham has struggled all year playing through injuries, and the Saints offense simply hasn't been able to get off the ground.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-30-14 |
San Diego Chargers +5.5 v. Baltimore Ravens | Top | 34-33 |
Win | 100 | 109 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Diego Chargers. The Baltimore Ravens looked pretty good in a win on the road over New Orleans last week, but I think they are getting perhaps a little too much credit for exposing a very weak Saints run defense. The Ravens host the Chargers on Sunday, and they aren't likely to find as much success on the ground against a solid San Diego defense.
The Chargers did a good job stopping Tre Mason and the Rams last week, limiting St. Louis to 107 yards on 24 carries. They won that game by a score of 27-24, holding off a late rally by the Rams.
Ryan Matthews is back for San Diego, and he had a big game, running for 105 yards and a TD on 12 carries. The Chargers might be more successful with Philip Rivers passing the ball though, and Baltimore's secondary has really struggled. The Ravens rank 29th in the league allowing over 264 yards per game in the air.
Chargers wideout Keenan Allen had 104 receiving yards and a TD in last week's win over the Rams, and I am expecting him to have another big game here in Baltimore.
Take SD.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-30-14 |
Cleveland Browns v. Buffalo Bills -145 | Top | 10-26 |
Win | 100 | 104 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills are coming off a blowout win over the Jets on Monday Night Football, and I cashed in a winner on that game. Here is what I had to say before kickoff:
"The Bills might cause all sorts of problems for Vick tonight, as their defense leads the NFL with 39 sacks. Four of those came in a 43-23 win at New York in October, and Vick had a terrible game, throwing for 153 yards on 18-of-36 passing. Kyle Orton picked apart the New York secondary, throwing for 238 yards and four TDs in that game.
With Buffalo coming off back to back losses, they are just a slight favorite here tonight. The Bills probably feel they deserved better in Miami last week, as a couple highly controversial calls really appeared to change the outcome of that game.
Buffalo has played well all year long, even in games that it has lost. The same can't be said for the Jets, who have lost six games by a double digit margin."
They are back at home this Sunday to host Cleveland, and they are just a slight favorite. Cleveland has a better record at 7-4, but they've had a pretty soft schedule. The Browns have one of the worst run defenses in football, and Buffalo should be able to take advanatage with Fred Jackson and Anthony Dixon, who both found the endzone last week.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-29-14 |
Auburn v. Alabama -8.5 | Top | 44-55 |
Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
This is a FREE #NCAAF play on the Alabama #CrimsonTide.
Auburn has been one of college football's elite teams over the last two seasons. The Tigers have gotten lucky on numerous occasions though, with wins coming in games that they could have, and maybe should have lost. One of those games was in last year's Iron Bowl at home against Alabama. The Tigers upset the Tide on a 100 yard return on a missed field goal attempt to win the game.
A year later, and Alabama will have a chance to avenge that loss, and this time the game will be played on their home turf. Auburn scheduled a soft opponent last week, and a 31-7 win over Samford doesn't impress much. Prior to that the Tigers went 2-3 during a five game stretch where they could have easily lost all five of those games.
They barely survived in a 42-35 win over the Gamecocks, and then Ole Miss had the game winning TD come off the board with a video review ruling the play a fumble prior to crossing the line.
It was just a few weeks ago that Texas A&M upset Auburn, and that same Aggies team lost 59-0 at Alabama. I bet against the Tigers in that game, as well as their loss to Georgia. I just don't think this team is as good it's cracked up to be, and I can't see them hanging with the Tide here in Alabama.
Take BAMA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-29-14 |
Florida +10 v. Florida State | Top | 19-24 |
Win | 100 | 132 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Florida Gators.
The Seminoles have been flirting with disaster all season long, yet every week they do just enough to win. Last week they beat the Boston College Eagles 20-17. It was the fifth time this season they've won by less than a TD, and they've also trailed at halftime five times this season.
The Gators have a 6-4 record, but their losses have come against the likes of SEC powerhouses LSU, Alabama and Missouri. They also beat a very good Georgia team at the beginning of November by a score of 38-20 at Jacksonville. Florida ran for 418 yards in that game, and they are likely to have success running the ball against Florida State today. The Seminoles defense allowed Boston College to rack up 240 yards last week, averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Jameis Winston has thrown more picks than he has TDs over his last four starts, and going up against an SEC defense could prove to be his undoing.
The Gators should be all fired up, playing their final game under head coach Will Muschamp, against a bitter rival. Don't be shocked to see an upset in Tallahassee.
Take FLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-29-14 |
Notre Dame v. USC -6.5 | Top | 14-49 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the USC Trojans.
The Trojans are coming off a loss on the road against rivals UCLA, but they had won four of five prior to that. They will host Notre Dame Saturday, and the Irish have lost four of five. Their only win during that span came in a close game against Navy, and their defense has really struggled without senior linebacker Joe Schmidt. They've allowed at least 30 points in all of their last five games.
Injuries have continued to pile up for Notre Dame, who lost defensive lineman Jaron Jones and cornerback Cody Riggs in the loss to Louisville. You would have to expect this unit to struggle against a Trojans offense that has plenty of weapons.
Trojans QB Cody Kessler has had a very solid season, throwing for over 3,000 yards with 30 TDs and just four INTs. He's thrown for 17 TDs and just one pick while winning four of his five starts at home.
Everett Golson hasn't had nearly as much success protecting the football, throwing at least one pick in eight straight starts (13 total).
Take USC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-29-14 |
West Virginia v. Iowa State +13 | Top | 37-24 |
Push | 0 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Iowa State Cyclones. Iowa State has just two wins this season, and they are 0-7 versus Big-12 teams. They've actually been far more competitive than those record indicate though, as losses to Kansas State, Texas and Texas Tech all came by less than five points. The Cyclones host West Virginia Saturday, and the Mountaineers have lost three straight.
WVU quarterback Clint Trickett left last Thursday's game with a concussion, and he's listed as doubtful to play here this week. Backup Skyler Howard played well in relief though, throwing for 198 yards and a TD on 15-of-23 passing. He's only seen action in one other game this season though, failing to complete a pass in a brief appearance against Kansas.
The Cyclones beat West Virginia in Morgantown last year by a score of 52-44, and they lost in a close game the previous season 31-24. It seems like quite a bargain getting ISU as a home dog of more than a TD, as this is a game that they could easily win outright.
Take ISU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-28-14 |
Arizona State v. Arizona UNDER 62.5 | Top | 35-42 |
Loss | -106 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ARZST@ARIZ to go UNDER the total.
The Wildcats host the Sun Devils in Tuscon on Friday, and both teams are tied with a 9-2 record. This is a huge game for both teams, who are gunning for first in the Pac-12 South, along with UCLA who is also sitting at 9-2. Arizona's defense has been impressive lately, allowing an average of just 18 points over their last four games.
They might need the defense to come up big if starting QB Anu Solomon is unable to go, he left lat week's game with a foot injury and has since been seen wearing a walking boot. The Wildcats opted to lean on the run with backup Jesse Scroggins in the game, as he only attempted five passes, completing three of those four 64 yards.
Nick Wilson ran for 218 yards and three TDs against a strong Utah defense last week, and I see no reason why they wouldn't continue to feed the hot hand.
While both teams are capable of putting points on the board in a hurry, I find that in big divisional battles like this, often it's the defenses that shine. Public money appears to be on the over, but there are some long standing trends that point toward a low scoring game. The Wildcats have only seen the total go over in two of their last 10 home games, and going back further reveals that 20 of their last 27 home games versus teams with a winning record have gone under the total. All things considered, this number looks a little high.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-28-14 |
Navy -9.5 v. South Alabama | Top | 42-40 |
Loss | -110 | 63 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Navy Midshipmen.
The Midshipmen are coming off a 52-19 blowout win over the Georgia Southern Eagles. I bet on Navy in that game, and here is what I said prior to kickoff: "The Georgia Southern Eagles boast an 8-2 record, giving them twice as many wins as Navy, but don't let that fool you. Georgia Southern has been beating up on the minnows of the Sun Belt, and when they've stepped up in competition they've failed the test, losing to N.C. State and Georgia Tech. The Midshipmen play with the big boys though, competing with the likes of Ohio State, Rutgers and Notre Dame. Navy gave the Irish all they could handle two weeks ago at Fedex Field, but the Midshipmen came up short losing 49-39. They've had a bye week to rest and prepare for today's game, and they should come out and steamroll this pretender out of the Sun Belt."
One again they face an inferior opponent from the Sun Belt conference, only this time it's a much weaker team. They are on the road, but I don't think that's going to stop them from winning by double-digits against a Jaguars team that they beat last year by 28 points.
Take NAVY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-27-14 |
Seattle Seahawks +110 v. San Francisco 49ers | Top | 19-3 |
Win | 110 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Seattle Seahawks. I predicted that Seattle would win the NFC West before the season started, and while things haven't gone as smoothly as I'd hoped, I stand by that prediction. This game against San Francisco is a must win, if Seattle hopes to capture another division title. While Seattle has had the upper hand, winning three of the last four in this series, all of those wins have come at home. The Niners though haven't looked like the same team this year, and they appear to be ripe for the picking. Colin Kaepernick has not been impressive this season at all, and a date with the Seahawks isn't likely to help. The San Francisco QB completed less than 50% of his passes with one TD and four INTs in last year's meetings with Seattle. The Hawks also sacked him five times in those games. Bobby Wagner is back at linebacker for Seattle, and the defense looked sharp in a blowout win over Arizona last week. Take SEA. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-27-14 |
TCU v. Texas +7 | Top | 48-10 |
Loss | -115 | 44 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Longhorns.
The Horned Frogs have really struggle away from home in their last two road games, winning by a combined five points at West Virginia and Kansas. They take on the Longhorns in Texas on Thanksgiving Day, and Texas has been on a roll of late. Charlie Strong's team has won three straight (all blowouts) against Texas Tech, West Virginia, and Oklahoma State.
The Longhorns defense limited the Cowboys to just 192 yards of total offense in a 28-7 home win on November 15. QB Tyrone Swoopes threw for 305 yards and a pair of TDs on 24-of-33 passing. He's only thrown one interception in his last four starts, and he has 12 TDs and just six INTs on the season.
Trevone Boykin threw 21 TD passes in his first seven games, but has just three in his last three starts. He's also been picked off twice in those games. He's had to make due without leading rusher B.J. Catalon, who is listed as questionable to return for this game.
This looks like a tough spot for TCU, and asking them to cover points on the road just doesn't seem that realistic.
Take TEX.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-27-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles +3 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 33-10 |
Win | 112 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles and the Cowboys will battle it out on Thanksgiving Day, and the winner will walk away with sole possession of first place in the NFC East. The Eagles have been flying, other than an ugly loss on the road at Green Bay. We have to give them a mulligan for that, as everyone is getting blown out at Lambeau these days. Dallas though has been consistently inconsistent, and last week Eli Manning lit them up for 338 yards and three TDs. This Dallas defense has some issues, and I think we've seen the Cowboys hide a lot of those flaws by controlling the clock, and running the ball with DeMarco Murray. Mark Sanchez has for more than 300 yards in each of his starts so far, and he bounced back last week after looking pretty bad in Green Bay. I think the Eagles can win this game outright, but I like getting them as a dog here in a game that could easily be decided by three points or less.
Take PHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-27-14 |
Chicago Bears v. Detroit Lions OVER 47 | Top | 17-34 |
Win | 100 | 60 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on CHI@DET to go OVER the total. The Lions defense has played very well this season, and they have been particularly tough against the run. Their secondary could be tested against this high flying Bears passing attack though, and they were lit up by Tom Brady last week in New England. Brady three for 349 yards and a pair of TDs, and the Patriots piled on 34 points.
The Bears defense hasn't impressed much though, and they've given up over 100 points in their last two road games. Chicago ranks 28th in the league allowing over 260 passing yards per game, and they face the league's best receiver in Calvin Johnson on Thanksgiving day.
These two teams combined to score 72 points in last year's meeting at Ford Field, and 50 points the previous season at Detroit. Four of the last five meetings in Detroit have gone over, and the Bears have played five straight overs versus teams with a winning record.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-24-14 |
Baltimore Ravens v. New Orleans Saints -144 | Top | 34-27 |
Loss | -144 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New Orleans Saints. Over the last few seasons, the question was not if the Saints would win at home, but by how great a margin would the win by? Their air of invincibility at the Superdome has taken a big hit though, coming off consecutive losses to the 49ers and Bengals. They will try to avoid a third straight defeat as they host the Ravens tonight, and the Ravens might be just the right opponent.
I don't think this Ravens team is nearly as good as it's record indicates. Lets take a look at where their wins have come from.. they beat the Titans, Falcons, Panthers, Bucs and Browns, leaving them with just one win against a team with a winning record (Pittsburgh).
The Steelers avenged that loss a couple of weeks ago, as Big Ben lit up the Ravens secondary for 340 yards and six TDs. They could be in for another long night facing Drew Breese at the Superdome.
Drew Brees threw 39 TD passes last year, and 27 of those came at home. The Ravens have seen the total go over in five of their last six road games, losing four of those.
Take NO
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-24-14 |
Baltimore Ravens v. New Orleans Saints OVER 50.5 | Top | 34-27 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 5* play on BAL@NO to go OVER the total. Over the last few seasons, the question was not if the Saints would win at home, but by how great a margin would the win by? Their air of invincibility at the Superdome has taken a big hit though, coming off consecutive losses to the 49ers and Bengals. They will try to avoid a third straight defeat as they host the Ravens tonight, and the Ravens might be just the right opponent.
I don't think this Ravens team is nearly as good as it's record indicates. Lets take a look at where their wins have come from.. they beat the Titans, Falcons, Panthers, Bucs and Browns, leaving them with just one win against a team with a winning record (Pittsburgh).
The Steelers avenged that loss a couple of weeks ago, as Big Ben lit up the Ravens secondary for 340 yards and six TDs. They could be in for another long night facing Drew Breese at the Superdome.
Drew Brees threw 39 TD passes last year, and 27 of those came at home. The Ravens have seen the total go over in five of their last six road games, losing four of those.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-24-14 |
NY Jets v. Buffalo Bills -130 | Top | 3-38 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills and the Jets will meet in Detroit tonight, after their scheduled game for Sunday was postponed due to heavy snow in Buffalo. The Jets ended an eight game losing skid with a home win over Pittsburgh two weeks ago, and Michael Vick threw for a pretty pedestrian 132 yards with a pair of TDs on 10-of-18 passing.
The Bills might cause all sorts of problems for Vick tonight, as their defense leads the NFL with 39 sacks. Four of those came in a 43-23 win at New York in October, and Vick had a terrible game, throwing for 153 yards on 18-of-36 passing. Kyle Orton picked apart the New York secondary, throwing for 238 yards and four TDs in that game.
With Buffalo coming off back to back losses, they are just a slight favorite here tonight. The Bills probably feel they deserved better in Miami last week, as a couple highly controversial calls really appeared to change the outcome of that game.
Buffalo has played well all year long, even in games that it has lost. The same can't be said for the Jets, who have lost six games by a double digit margin.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-23-14 |
St. Louis Rams +6 v. San Diego Chargers | Top | 24-27 |
Win | 100 | 161 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on the St. Louis Rams.
The Chargers went into their bye week off three straight losses, and they came out last week and struggled to beat the Oakland Raiders by a score of 13-6. A date with the Rams is the last thing San Diego needs right now, St. Louis has beaten Denver, Seattle and San Francisco during a five game stretch where they are 3-2.
St. Louis has sacked opposing quarterbacks 18 times over the last four weeks, and six of those belong to Robert Quinn, who finished second in the league with 19 sacks last season.
That's a scary thought for Phillip Rivers, who has really struggled lately, and there were rumors that he was nursing a rib injury. He threw for 193 yards and a TD on 22-of-34 passing last week against Oakland, and the Rams are likely to be a lot tougher on him.
Rookie RB Tre Mason has also coming off a career high 113 yards on 29 carries in the win over Denver. This Rams team is all fired up, and nobody wants to be playing St. Louis right now.
Take STL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-23-14 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Houston Texans -1 | Top | 22-13 |
Loss | -125 | 158 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans.
Ryan Mallet came in to lead the Texans to a victory on the road in Cleveland in his debut as a starter last week, and he's back under center in Houston today as the Texans host the Bengals. Cincinnati is coming off a stunning upset win at New Orleans, just a week after an embarrassing home loss to Cleveland.
Mallet was solid in the win over the Browns, throwing for 211 yards, a pair of TDs and one INT. Houston's defense completely shut down the Cleveland running game, limiting them to a total of 58 yards on 24 carries.
The Texans lead the league in forced turnovers, and that doesn't bode well for Andy Dalton and the Bengals, who have been known to struggle on the road.
Rookie RB Alfred Blue shredded a weak Browns defense for 156 yards on a record 36 carries last week, and if Arian Foster can't go today, he should be in for another big day against a Bengals defense that also struggles to stop the run. The Bengals rank 28th in the NFL allowing opponents to average over 136 yards per game.
Take HOU.
GL, Jesse Schuke |
11-23-14 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Chicago Bears -5.5 | Top | 13-21 |
Win | 100 | 158 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Chicago Bears.
The Bears bounced back from back to back blowout losses at New England and Green Bay with a solid home win over the Vikings last week. They host Tampa this week, and I'm expecting Chicago to build on a little momentum here at home.
The Bucs are just 2-7, and they had lost five straight before winning at Washington last week. Tampa has real problems defending the pass, ranking 30th in the NFL allowing over 266 passing yards per game. Jay Cutler should have a field day here at home.
Matt Forte could also be in for a big day, as he goes up a Bucs defense that is allowing an average of 118 rushing yards per game (22nd in the NFL). Forte is third in the league in rushing behind DeMarco Murray and Le'Veon Bell. He ran for 117 yards and picked up 58 more with six receptions against the Vikes.
Both these teams have struggled on defense, but Chicago has more weapons, and they have home field. This should be a comfortable win for the Bears.
Take CHI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-23-14 |
Tennessee Titans +12.5 v. Philadelphia Eagles | Top | 24-43 |
Loss | -130 | 74 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Tennessee Titans.
The Eagles are undefeated at home this year, boasting a 5-0 record in at Lincoln Financial Field. They have backup Mark Sanchez under center with starter Nick Foles sidelined by an injury. The jury is still out on Sanchez, who looked great against Carolina, but then stunk it up in a loss to the Packers last week.
What to expect from Sanchez this week? Probably somewhere in the middle, an average performance at best. He's been picked off four times over the last three weeks, throwing for six TDs.
The Titans defense hasn't been that bad against the pass, ranking 9th in the NFL allowing opponents to average just 226 yards per game in the air. They pushed the Steelers to the brink on Monday night, coming up just short in a 27-24 loss.
Zack Mettenberger delivered another solid performance, throwing for 263 yards, a pair of TDs and an INT. While he hasn't picked up a win yet, he has completed better than 60% of his passes with five TDs in three starts. Those kind of numbers look pretty good with the Titans getting a double digit cushion.
Take TEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 53.5 | Top | 13-37 |
Win | 100 | 59 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OSU@WASH to go UNDER the total.
The Huskies host Oregon State Saturday night, and the Beavers are a dangerous team right now. They ended a four game losing skid with an upset win over Arizona State last week, and need just one more win to become bowl eligible. They will likely need to get that win here in Washington, because their final game comes at home against Oregon.
It's not going to be easy against a Washington defense that plays particularly well at home. The Huskies limited Stanford to 20 points, and held the Sun Devils to 24 in home losses. Washington has also taken three of the last four meetings, but the key trend here is that the total has gone under in five of the last six meetings at Husky Stadium.
The Weather is also a potential factor that could slow down both teams on offense, with rain and wind expected in Seattle tonight.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
USC v. UCLA UNDER 61 | Top | 20-38 |
Win | 100 | 57 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on USC@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The Trojans will take on the Bruins in Pasadena, and this is a game with plenty at stake. Both teams are trying to win the Pac-12 South, and earn a shot at playing in the Conference Championship game. Both these teams have a load of talent on the defensive side of the ball, and I expect this game to be a tight one.
That's certainly been the case when these two teams have played each other over the past decade, with seven of the last eight head to head meetings going under. Only one of those eight games saw a total as high as 60, and tonight's game has a total that's sky high. That hasn't stopped the public from betting on the over, and I think were getting great value, with a number that appears to be rather inflated.
The news that USC has reinstated star DB Josh Shaw certainly won't hurt the Trojans defense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
Vanderbilt +30.5 v. Mississippi State | Top | 0-51 |
Loss | -102 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Vanderbilt Commodores.
The Mississippi State Bulldogs are coming off their first loss of the season, and it was a tough one in a close game at Alabama. They host the 3-7 Commodores a week later, a game that looks pretty easy on paper. Vanderbilt has been terrible all year, still looking for their first win in conference play. It's not likely to come here as a 30+ point dog, but I like their chances of making a game of it.
This is a actually a tough spot for the home team, as they could get caught looking ahead to the Egg Bowl against rivals Ole Miss. The Commodores have shown signs of life in recent weeks, and losses to Missouri and South Carolina came by just 10 points.
A 34-10 loss to the Gators in their last game was closer than the score would indicate, as they trailed by just 10 points in the fourth quarter before Florida piled on 17 points late. They've had an extra week to prepare for this game, so expect them to come to play.
Take VANDY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
Colorado +32.5 v. Oregon | Top | 10-44 |
Loss | -106 | 15 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Colorado Buffaloes. The Oregon Ducks are flying, there's no doubt about that. They went into Utah and laid a whuppin' on the Utes, but that game actually could have played out a lot differently. Oregon won by a score of 51-27, but the Utes dominated the game in the first quarter, and they had appeared to have jumped out to a 14-0 lead, when a premature TD celebration turned into a fumble that was returned for a TD the other way. The Ducks are in line for a Pac-12 Championship, and a playoff birth. You better believe if they build up a sizable lead, the starters will not see a lot of time in the second half. They have been known to blow teams out at home, and on the road for that matter, but they haven't beaten any Pac-12 teams by a margin as great as the spread in this game (this season). Colorado also has the type of team that is capable of a late rally to narrow the gap in garbage time. They scored 17 points in the fourth quarter to force OT in a loss to UCLA last month. Take COL. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
Louisville v. Notre Dame UNDER 53 | Top | 31-28 |
Loss | -106 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOU@ND to go UNDER the toal.
The Irish were a playoff contender before losing to Florida State last month. They could have easily won that game, but they've since lost three of four, with the only win coming against Navy in a game that could have gone either way. The Cardinal also lost a heartbreaker to the Seminoles, but unlike Notre Dame they bounced back with a convincing road win at Boston College.
The Cardinals defense ranks 10th in the nation, allowing opponents to average just over 17 points per game. That unit could get a boost with the return of senior linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin and defensive lineman Pio Vatuvei.
The Irish had ranked near the top of the country on defense, but they've struggled to stop anyone in recent games. The good news for the Irish is that starting QB Will Gardner is out of the Cardinal, and his backup Reggie Bonnafon hasn't impressed much.
The weather conditions for this game are expected to be less than ideal for both offenses though, with rain and freezing cold temperatures in the forecast. Winds are expected to exceed 25 KM/H, and mixed with rain that could make it tough in the passing game.
The Cardinals have played six straight unders on grass, and the Irish have seen the total go under in 17 of their last 21 versus the ACC. In a low scoring game dominated by defense, you have to like the chances of failing to reach a total over 50.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-22-14 |
Louisville +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 31-28 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Louisville #Cardinals.
The Irish were a playoff contender before losing to Florida State last month. They could have easily won that game, but they've since lost three of four, with the only win coming against Navy in a game that could have gone either way. The Cardinal also lost a heartbreaker to the Seminoles, but unlike Notre Dame they bounced back with a convincing road win at Boston College.
The Cardinals defense ranks 10th in the nation, allowing opponents to average just over 17 points per game. That unit could get a boost with the return of senior linebacker Lorenzo Mauldin and defensive lineman Pio Vatuvei.
The Irish had ranked near the top of the country on defense, but they've struggled to stop anyone in recent games. The good news for the Irish is that starting QB Will Gardner is out of the Cardinal, and his backup Reggie Bonnafon hasn't impressed much.
The weather conditions for this game are expected to be less than ideal for both offenses though, with rain and freezing cold temperatures in the forecast. Winds are expected to exceed 25 KM/H, and mixed with rain that could make it tough in the passing game.
The Cardinals have played six straight unders on grass, and the Irish have seen the total go under in 17 of their last 21 versus the ACC. In a low scoring game dominated by defense, you have to like L'Ville getting more than a FG.
Take L'Ville.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-21-14 |
Air Force +6 v. San Diego State | Top | 14-30 |
Loss | -104 | 22 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Air Force Falcons.
The Falcons will be on the road at San Diego State taking on the Aztecs on Friday, and the visitors boast a record of 8-2. It's not exactly like they've been playing cupcakes either, as those wins have come against the likes of Boise State, Army, Navy and Nevada.
The Aztecs lost to both Boise State and Nevada, and QB Quinn Kaehler threw for 362 yards and a pair of TDs, getting picked off twice in those games. When the line opened with San Diego State as a two point favorite, it seemed reasonable enough given the venue. We've seen public money come in on the Aztecs though, and I don't think it's realistic to ask them to cover a big spread here.
This is not the same San Diego State team that won 17 games over the last two seasons, they've regressed quite a bit this year. Kaehler has really struggled, throwing fewer TDs (8) than he has INTs (9).
I've heard that one of the reason's for line movement here is that the Falcons will be without their leading rusher Jacobi Owens. That doesn't bother me in the slightest, as a team that runs the triple option they have serious depth in the backfield. In fact they had four players average more yard per carry than Owens in last week's win over Nevada.
Take AFA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-20-14 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Oakland Raiders OVER 42 | Top | 20-24 |
Win | 100 | 44 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on KC@OAK to go OVER the total.
We saw the Chiefs grind out another win over the Seahawks on Sunday, and it was an "old school" gritty down and dirty game dominated be defense and smash-mouth football. Still they scored a combined 44 points, going over the listed number. Tonight's total is even lower, and I think we should see enough offense from both teams to cash a ticket with the over.
The Chiefs are a big favorite on the road, and that makes plenty of sense given Oakland's 0-10 record. History tells us though that no matter how bad a team is, they eventually manage to get a win somewhere throughout the season. The Raiders have come close on numerous occasions, and they even put up 24 points on the road at Seattle earlier this month.
I think it's going to be tough for the Chiefs to come out on a short week on the road, with the same intensity as they normally bring on Sundays. They have a big game against Denver looming large, and they could get caught overlooking the Raiders here.
Oakland has seen the total go over in four of it's last five home games.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-20-14 |
Kansas State +2.5 v. West Virginia | Top | 26-20 |
Win | 100 | 42 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas State Wildcats.
The Wildcats are coming off a bye week, giving them time to lick their wounds after getting whupped by TCU. Prior to that they had won five straight though, and one of those was an impressive upset over the Sooners in Oklahoma. Given the extra time to regroup and prepare for tonight game in West Virginia, I expect to see the Wildcats respond with another impressive road win.
The Mountaineers have been great at times this season, but cracks are starting to appear. They come off consecutive losses at home to TCU and on the road at Texas. West Virginia is also coming off a bye week, and normally you expect that to work to a team's advantage. It hasn't been the case for Holgorsen and his Mountaineers though, who have failed to cover off their bye week in seven straight seasons.
The Wildcats have completely out-classes WVU in previous meetings, winning last year at home by a score of 35-12, and the previous year at Morgantown by a score of 55-14.
The Mountaineers had no answer for big physical teams such as Oklahoma and Texas, and I expect a date with the Wildcats to prove to be the same story.
Take KSU
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-17-14 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. Tennessee Titans UNDER 46 | Top | 27-24 |
Loss | -110 | 17 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on PIT@TEN to go UNDER the total.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been a classic example of a Jekyll & Hyde team this year. Their offense has looked unstoppable at times, but they've also lost to the Jets, Bucs and Browns. They've certainly been better at home than they have been on the road, and that's good news for Titans fans.Tennessee continues to struggle, losing last week by a score of 21-7 at Baltimore. After winning at Kansas City in Week 1, the Titans have lost seven of eight since. Six of those games have failed to reach the listed total.
Ben Roethlisberger was coming off back to back games with six TDs, but then last week in New York he threw for 343 yards and just one TD with a pair of INTS in a loss to the Jets.
That poor performance was not an isolated incident, he's struggled on the road all year. He has a total of 23 TD passes this year, but only five of those have come on the road.
He likely won't have to be spectacular against the Titans though, as Tennessee has been one of the league's worst at stopping the run. Pittsburgh should be coming into this game with the intention of handing off to Bell and Blount early and often. As they concentrate on their ground game, the clock will be ticking.
Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule |
11-16-14 |
New England Patriots +3 v. Indianapolis Colts | Top | 42-20 |
Win | 100 | 91 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots.
The Patriots are coming off a bye week, taking a well deserved break after rattling off five straight wins. Their latest win was the most impressive of the bunch, knocking off Peyton Manning and the Broncos in a 43-21 blowout. Manning threw for 438 yards, but he was picked off twice, with just two TDs.
The Colts beat up on the Giants last week, but who doesn't beat the Giants these days. It was just two weeks ago that they were lit up in Pittsburgh in a 51-34 loss. Ben Roethlisberger threw for a whopping 522 yards and six TDs in that game.
There is no doubt that this is a big game with massive playoff implications. Exactly the type of game where Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are normally at their best. The same can't be said for Andrew Luck, who hasn't proven that he can handle the pressure when it matters the most.
Luck is 1-2 in his three post-season starts, with six TDs and eight INTs in those games. He's also 0-2 against Brady and Belichick, with a 51% completion percentage, and seven INTs in those losses.
Giving Belichick an extra week to prepare a game plan, I don't see how you can bet against the Pats getting points. Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-16-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Green Bay Packers -5.5 | Top | 20-53 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on the Green Bay #Packers.
The Eagles didn't miss a beat with backup Mark Sanchez taking over at quarterback for the injured Nick Foles, but a home game against an injury plagued Panthers team isn't quite the same as a road game at Green Bay.
The Packers have won four of their last five, and they are undefeated at home, winning all four games at Lambeau by at least seven points. Last week they smoked the Bears winning 55-14.
The Eagles have looked vulnerable on defense even during their winning streak, and Philly ranks 22nd in the NFL against the pass allowing over 250 yards per game. That stat is more alarming than it sounds, as their schedule isn't that impressive with wins over Jacksonville, Washington, St. Louis, NYG and Carolina.
Aaron Rogers has thrown for 570 yards and nine TDs in his last two home starts, and he hasn't thrown an INT at home since 2012. I simply can't see Mark Sanchez keeping up with this Packers offense.
Take GB
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-16-14 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. New Orleans Saints -6.5 | Top | 27-10 |
Loss | -110 | 152 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints haven't quite been as invincible at home this season as we've seen them be in previous years. They lost to the 49ers last week, ending a 14 game home winning streak. This week's opponent should prove to be a lot easier for the Saints to handle, and I think we'll see another blowout in the Big Easy.
Andy Dalton is coming off the worst game of his career, throwing for 86 yards, no TDs and three INTs on 10-of-33 passing against the Browns. He now has more picks than he does touchdowns this season, and he's never had a lot of success on the road. He's thrown for just two TDs and six picks over his last four starts, with a league low completion percentage during that span.
Drew Brees threw 39 TD passes last year, and 27 of those came at home. Jimmy Graham was on the receiving end of 16 of those TDs last season, and he had 10 receptions for 72 yards and a pair of TDs last week. With their superstar TE back near 100%, I can't see the Cincy defense stopping the Saints from lighting up the scoreboard.
The Bengals are 3-8-1 ATS in the last 12 road games, and this is a tough spot for a team that doesn't travel well.
Take NO.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-16-14 |
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 v. NY Giants | Top | 16-10 |
Win | 100 | 152 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the San Francisco 49ers.
San Francisco is coming off an impressive road win at New Orleans, ending a 14 game home win streak of the Saints. They got the running game going last week, racking up 144 yards and a pair of TDs. They should be looking at bigger numbers here in New York, facing a Giants defense that ranks dead last against the run, allowing opponents to average over 144 yards per game.
The Giants are coming off four straight losses, and they know there isn't a lot left to fight for this season. Injuries have taken their toll on this team, with Prince Amukamara the latest casualty in a decimated secondary. Victor Cruz is gone for the year, and RB Rashad Jenning has missed the last four games. He could come back this week, but it's not exactly a favorable matchup against a stout San Francisco defense.
The loss of Patrick Willis will hurt, but welcoming Aldon Smith back from suspension should soften the blow. San Francisco has had it's fair share of injuries on defense this year, but it hasn't stopped them from remaining among the NFL's elite. The Niners rank 5th overall against the run, and 7th against the pass. They have 11 interceptions, just three fewer than Arizona who lead the league with 14.
The Giants have lost four straight by double digits, and there's not a lot of reason to expect a better result this week.
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-16-14 |
Houston Texans +3.5 v. Cleveland Browns | Top | 23-7 |
Win | 100 | 152 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Houston Texans. **This play has been downgraded to a 5* with the news that Arian Foster will not start**
The Texans have finally pulled the plug on the Ryan Fitzpatrick experiment, choosing to replace him with unproven backup Ryan Mallet. I'll take an unproven backup over a veteran that has proven to be ineffective anytime. This could be exactly what the Texans needed, as Fitzpatrick simply wasn't getting it done.
Cleveland is getting a lot of respect coming off three straight wins, but prior to that they actually lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars. I don't think the Browns are as good as their record would indicate, and I think they will struggle to contain a Houston team that is coming off a bye week. The Texans have had plenty of time to prepare for this game, and with Jadeveon Clowney healthy, their defense should create all kinds of trouble for the Browns.
Cleveland has been terrible at stopping the run, and I expect the Texans to come out and run the ball with authority. They shouldn't ask Mallet to be much more than a game manager, and a conservative game plan should be a good thing with Houston getting points.
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-15-14 |
Missouri v. Texas A&M -4 | Top | 34-27 |
Loss | -106 | 31 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies shocked Auburn last week, winning outright on the road as a 29 point dog. Here is what I had to say prior to the game:
"The Tigers are being asked to cover an awful large spread here against a Texas A&M team that has the ability to score points in a hurry. Of course Kenny Hill will be riding the pine, serving a suspension, but backup Kyle Allen should be better as he's had more time to work with the starting offense. Keep in mind that Hill just barely beat out Allen for the starting job during training camp, and many consider him to be the QB of the future at College Station."
Allen went on to have a monster game, throwing for 277 yards and four TDs. Kenny Hill will suit up this week, but he'll be backing up Allen who has taken over as the #QB.
Missouri has won three straight since getting blown out 34-0 at home to Georgia, but their home wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt were not all that impressive.
The Tigers will be without starting safety Braylon Webb and corner Aarion Penton, and that's a scary thought against the air assault of Texas A&M.
Take TAM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-15-14 |
Georgia Southern v. Navy -145 | Top | 19-52 |
Win | 100 | 62 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Navy Midshipmen. The Georgia Southern Eagles boast an 8-2 record, giving them twice as many wins as Navy, but don't let that fool you. Georgia Southern has been beating up on the minnows of the Sun Belt, and when they've stepped up in competition they've failed the test, losing to N.C. State and Georgia Tech.
The Midshipmen play with the big boys though, competing with the likes of Ohio State, Rutgers and Notre Dame. Navy gave the Irish all they could handle two weeks ago at Fedex Field, but the Midshipmen came up short losing 49-39. They've had a bye week to rest and prepare for today's game, and they should come out and steamroll this pretender out of the Sun Belt.
Take NAVY.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-15-14 |
TCU v. Kansas +29 | Top | 34-30 |
Win | 100 | 62 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas Jayhawks.
The Horned Frogs stock is at an all time high, but I think it's time to sell. TCU has bumped Alabama out of the fourth and final playoff spot, and it's ranked three spots ahead of a Baylor team that already beat them. They are being asked to cover an awfully big spread on the road this week at Kansas, especially when you consider that they barely avoided defeat at West Virginia in their last road game.
You might say "well West Virginia is a hell of a lot better than Kansas", and you might be right. But perhaps the gap is not as big as you think? Kansas lost 33-14 to the Mountaineers in Morgantown, and they also played relatively close games at home against Oklahoma State, and on the road at Texas Tech.
The Jayhawks won big over a very good Iowa State team at home last week, and they should be full of confidence heading into today's home game. The weather forecast in Lawrence Kansas is also calling for snow, and subzero temperatures, which might make it that much harder for TCU to run up the score.
Take KU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-15-14 |
Clemson -153 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 6-28 |
Loss | -153 | 59 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Clemson Tigers.
Clemson's offense has been stuck in neutral since QB Deshaun Watson went down with a broken bone in his hand. He's set to return this afternoon in Atlanta, and that's not good news for Georgia Tech.
The Tigers defense ranks 12th nationally, holding opponents to an average of just over 18 points per game. They lead the nation in third down defense, while the Yellow Jackets are the top offense on third down. Something's got to give, but after seeing the Tigers hold Louisville and Florida State to a combined 30 points in regulation, I think Clemson's defense wins this battle.
The Tigers have lost just twice this season, and those defeats came against Georgia and FSU. Georgia Tech's two losses both come against unranked teams, at home versus Duke and on the road at North Carolina.
Tar Heels QB Marquise Williams lit up the Yellow Jackets defense for 390 yards and four TDs in the air, and another 73 yards with a TD on the ground. That bodes well for the talented Watson who should be more than capable of delivering a similar performance.
Take CLEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-13-14 |
Buffalo Bills +6 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 9-22 |
Loss | -115 | 60 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Buffalo Bills.
Buffalo lost a thriller at home last week to Kansas City, but I like their chances of bouncing back on the road tonight at Miami. Both teams are 5-4, but the Bills road record of 3-1 is better than Miami's home record of 2-2.
The Dolphins are a pretty big favorite given that their last four wins have come against opponents with a combined 9-28 record. Among the teams they have defeated include the 1-9 Jags and the 0-9 Raiders.
These two teams played earlier in the season at Buffalo, and the Bills defense dominated that game. They sacked Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill four times, and forced an INT. Tannehill is playing hurt, with shoulder and ankle injuries limiting his mobility. He was sacked three times in the loss at Detroit last week, and wasn't able to pick up any (zero) yards on the ground.
The Bills lead the NFL in sacks, and they could make life difficult for a Miami offensive line that is forced to mix and match to replace LT Brandon Albert. Keep in mind they have to figure this out on a short week, with limited time to practice.
Kyle Orton has thrown for 10 TDs and just three picks since winning the starting job, while Tannehill is 1-4 with a 67.0 passer rating in his career against Buffalo. He might not get a lot of help from the running game either, with an injured Lamar Miller in the backfield, going up against a stout Bills line.
Is Miami the favorite in this game? Really .. you gotta be sh###ing me! Take BUF,
GL, Jesse Schule |
11-11-14 |
Toledo v. Northern Illinois UNDER 59 | Top | 24-27 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TOL@NIU to go UNDER the total.
Last week I bet the under when the Huskies played Ball State. Here is what I had to say prior to kickoff: "The total for this game looks a little high in my opinion, but I guess these two teams have a history of playing high scoring games. You can forget about that history though, because in all those previous games the Huskies offense was pretty close to unstoppable with dual threat QB Jordan Lynch. Northern Illinois has a different look on offense this season, averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. They fell well short of that average in their last game, throwing for a total of just 54 yards in a 28-17 win over Eastern Michigan."
The Huskies host Toledo tonight, and weather conditions at Huskie Stadium are expected to be cold with heavy rain and wind. This should force both teams to lean heavily on the run, and that should help keep it a low scoring game. Toledo could be without it's starting quarterback who is dealing with a leg injury.
Only one of the last five meetings in Illinois have gone over the total, and given the conditions, we should expect another low scoring affair here.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-10-14 |
Carolina Panthers v. Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 | Top | 21-45 |
Win | 100 | 188 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles will turn to backup QB Mark Sanchez as they host the Panthers on Monday Night Football. The 27 year old completed 15-of-22 attempts for 202 yards with two TDs in relief of Nick Foles last week, but he also threw a pair of interceptions.
Tonight's game is a golden opportunity for Sanchez, coming off a full week of practice with the starting offense, and taking on a struggling Carolina defense. The Panthers are coming off three straight losses, and they've allowed an average of 38 points over their last three road games.
Last season's leading rusher LeSean McCoy is starting to turn things around after a slow start to the season. He ran for 117 yards on 24 carries against the Texans last week, and he should put up big numbers against a Panthers defense than ranks 27th in the NFL against the run.
Cam Newton is coming off one of the worst games of his career, completing just 10-of-28 passes for 151 yards and an INT in the loss to the Saints.
Philadelphia is riding an eight game winning streak at home, and their last home game was a 27-0 shutout win over the Giants.
Take PHI.
GL, Jesse Schule |
11-09-14 |
Chicago Bears v. Green Bay Packers -7 | | 14-55 |
Win | 100 | 93 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Green Bay Packers.
The Bears will travel to Green Bay to play the Packers at Lambeau. To say that this has been a tough place to play for Jay Cutler, wouldn't even scratch the surface of it. The Bears QB has thrown 19 interceptions while losing nine of his last 10 versus Green Bay. He's committed nine turnovers while losing four of his last five starts heading into tonight's game.
Aaron Rodgers on the other hasn't had any trouble lighting up the Chicago defense, throwing for 302 yards and four TDs on 22-of-28 passing in a 38-17 win in Chicago earlier this season.
Playing at Lambeau Field isn't easy at the best of times, but with snow and freezing temperatures forecast for tonight, the visitors may be battling mother nature as well.
The Packers are 8-1 in the last nine meetings in this series, and wideouts Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson both caught two TD passes with over 100 yards receiving in the last meeting between these two teams.
Take GB.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-09-14 |
NY Giants v. Seattle Seahawks -9 | Top | 17-38 |
Win | 100 | 137 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
Last week the Seahawks beat the Raiders by a score of 30-24, but that game wasn't nearly as close as the score would indicate. Seattle led 24-3 at halftime, and Oakland rallied to make it close late.
The Giants might not have the fight left in them to battle back if they fall behind early. New York is coming off three straight double digit losses, losing several key players in the process. Already without their top wide receiver and starting running back, last week they lost corner Prince Amukamara, who leads the team with three interceptions.
Seattle is getting healthier, with several of it's players set to return from injury. The offensive line should get a boost with center Max Unger coming back, while Cam Chancellor and Jeremy Lane return on defense.
"It's a big turn," Carroll said. "It depends on how much good fortune we have. We'll have four guys back that weren't ready for us this week and we could have eight. It's amazing that it could be like that, but we're on the verge of getting some guys back."
Eli Manning threw for 156 yards on 18-of-31 passing with five picks in a 23-0 home loss to the Seahawks last year. Watching him play recently doesn't inspire a lot of confidence that he can turn things around on the road in Seattle.
Expect the Hawks to win, and make a statement here today.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-09-14 |
Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | Top | 16-20 |
Win | 100 | 158 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Detroit Lions. There is plenty of hype surrounding the Miami Dolphins, coming off three straight wins. Keep in mind that while their 37-0 home win over San Diego was impressive, previous wins came against Jacksonville and Chicago, who have a combined record of 4-13. The Lions are also coming off three straight wins, and they come off a bye week giving them extra time to prepare for today's home game versus Miami.
The Lions will get Calvin Johnson back this week, after he sat out the last three games with an ankle injury. Golden Tate has really stepped up, with 55 catches for 800 yards and three TDs. He could make the Dolphins pay if they leave him open to double up on Megatron.
Detroit's defense has been lights out this year, ranking in the top 5 both against the run as well as the pass. Opponents are averaging just 74 rushing yards per game, and if the Dolphins can't run, it should take a lot of wind out of their sails. It won't help matters that leading rusher Lamar Miller is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, and the word out of the Dolphins camp is that if he's able to play, he'll see limited snaps.
Ryan Tannehill has had a good run, but let's not forget that it was only a few weeks ago that his coach was talking about benching him. I don't it's realistic to expect him to come into Detroit and put up big numbers against a tough Lions defense.
Take DET.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-09-14 |
Kansas City Chiefs -1 v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 17-13 |
Win | 100 | 158 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas City Chiefs. The Buffalo Bills have won back to back games, neither of which should really impress anybody. They came from behind to cap an 80-yard game winning drive with the winning TD with 0:01 second remaining on the clock at home against the Vikes, and then a week later they took advantage of a struggling New York Jets team. Aided by six New York turnovers, they won by a score of 43-23.
The Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday, and this should prove to be a giant step up in competition. The Chiefs own the NFL's top pass defense, allowing opponents to average fewer than 200 yards passing per game.
Buffalo's normally potent power running game will have to make due without C.J. Spiller, and Fred Jackson is questionable. Star wideout Sammy Watkins is also listed as questionable with a strained hammy.
Kyle Orton has been successful beating up on weak teams in recent weeks, but I remember seeing him get sacked five times in a home loss to the Patriots a few weeks back, and I think the Chiefs are going to terrorize him today. Kansas City is tied for 3rd in the NFL with 27 sacks.
Take KC.
GL, Jesse Schule |
11-09-14 |
San Francisco 49ers v. New Orleans Saints -200 | Top | 27-24 |
Loss | -200 | 132 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the New Orleans Saints. Things are starting to really fall apart in San Francisco, and traveling to New Orleans to take on the Saints is likely to add insult to injury. Last week's home loss to St. Louis saw Kaepernick sacked eight times, and he fumbled on the goal line in an attempt to score what would have been the game winning TD in the final minute.
Injuries on the offensive line have left the San Francisco quarterback scrambling for his life, with little time to throw the ball. He's struggled under pressure all year, making poor decisions when faced with pressure. The running game wasn't very effective last week, as the Niners picked up just 80 yards on 21 carries. Frank Gore has been limited by a hip injury, and at the age of 31, he's got a lot of mileage on those legs.
The Saints have also had an additional three days to rest and prepare for this game, coming off a win over the Panthers last Thursday night. Drew Brees threw 39 TD passes last year, and 27 of those came at home. Jimmy Graham was on the receiving end of 16 of those TDs last season, but he's been limited by a shoulder injury for most of the season. He's caught 12 passes for 142 yards and a pair of TDs over the last 2 weeks, and he looks like he's back near 100%. That's not good news for the visiting 49ers.
Take NO.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
Oregon v. Utah +9 | Top | 51-27 |
Loss | -115 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Utah Utes. The high flyin' mighty Ducks of Oregon will be on the road in Utah this Saturday. This could be a potential problem game for the Ducks, as they are once again dealing with injuries to their offensive line. We've already seen them struggle earlier is season, playing a close game at Washington State, and losing outright at home to Arizona.
The Utes aren't exactly an ideal opponent, considering that they lead the nation with 39 sacks so far this season. Utah's two losses this season have come by a combined four points, and all three of their games versus ranked opponents have been close, low scoring games.
Utah will rely on running back Devontae Booker to have a big game, he's coming off five straight games with over 100 yards. Utes QB Travis Wilson is coming off a poor performance at Arizona State, throwing for just 57 yards on 12-of-22 passing.
These teams have failed to score a combined 60 points in seven of the last eight head to head meetings, and the one exception was a home win for the Ducks. I expect Oregon to struggle offensively on the road in Utah, and this game should be close.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
Ohio State v. Michigan State -3 | Top | 49-37 |
Loss | -115 | 115 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Michigan State Spartans.
The Spartans are the defending conference champions, defeating the Buckeyes by a score of 34-24 in the Big-10 Title Game last season. The Buckeyes will have to try to avenge that loss on the road at East Lansing this week, a daunting task to say the least.
The fact that the Spartans are coming off a bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for this big game, is just one more reason to back the home team. The Buckeyes really struggled on the road two weeks ago at Penn State, and rookie QB J.T. Barrett threw a pair of interceptions.
It doesn't get any easier against the Spartans, who's defense has terrorized opposing QBs with 28 total sacks. They did a pretty good job of neutralizing Braxton Miller in last year's game, limiting him to 101 yards on 8-of-21 passing. I don't expect Barrett to have a lot of time to drop back and pass here, and it could be a long night for the rookie.
Aside from home field advantage for the Spartans, one of the biggest differences between now and last season, is a vastly improved MSU offense. QB Connor Cook has really settled in at QB, throwing of 1878 yards and 17 TDs, with just 5 picks.
The Spartans haven't really showed any weakness this season, with their only loss coming on the road at Oregon in a game that they were leading in the third quarter. The Buckeyes were upended at home against a pretty average VT team, and nearly lost on the road to Penn State.
Take MSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
Kansas State +215 v. TCU | Top | 20-41 |
Loss | -100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Kansas State Wildcats ML. The Horned Frogs are getting a lot of love from the public with their high flying offense, but I am convinced that the Wildcats are a more complete team. TCU came from behind to win 31-30 at Morgantown last week, but they lost their leading rusher B.J Catalon to a shoulder injury. They own the second highest scoring offense in the country averaging 48 points per game, but they have been a little fortunate to catch some inferior opponents at the right time.
When they hosted the Oklahoma Sooners in October, they found themselves involved in a back and forth game that was decided by just four points (37-33). Of course the Wildcats upset those sames Sooners in Oklahoma.
Kansas State's only loss came at the hands of Auburn, last year's SEC champion and the current #3 ranked team in the country. At 7-1 the Widcats aren't exactly flying under the radar anymore, but I still think they aren't getting as much credit as they deserve. I also think that TCU is getting far too much credit for beating up on the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
The Wildcats have beat the Horned Frogs in each of the last two seasons, and both of those wins came by double digits. I expect them to make it three straight with an upset win here in Fort Worth.
Take KSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
Notre Dame v. Arizona State -1.5 | Top | 31-55 |
Win | 100 | 136 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona State Sun Devils.
On paper, this looks like it should be a close game. Both teams are 7-1, and they come in ranked #9 and #10 respectively. If you look at their schedules though, you'll see that Arizona State has played far superior opposition.
The Sun Devils are 3-1 versus ranked opponents, with wins over Stanford, USC and Utah. The Irish have played just two Top 25 teams, winning one of those at home to Stanford. They were a little fortunate in that game though, converting on a 4th and long to score the game winning TD with 1:01 left on the clock.
Notre Dame has not been playing it's best football recently, allowing 30+ points in each of it's last three games. Wins over North Carolina and Navy were unimpressive, and they will certainly have to play much better to avoid being embarrassed in Arizona this weekend.
Losing senior LB Joe Schmidt to a season ending ankle injury against the Midshipmen last week isn't going to help a defensive unit that has already been struggling. "We've got a couple things we're going to experiment with today, and then we'll get a better feel," Kelly said Tuesday. "We haven't practiced yet, so we have a system that we'll employ today, and I think we'll get a better feel over the next couple days."
The Sun Devils defense has limited it's last three opponents to an average of just 12 points, and I think Arizona is catching Notre Dame at an ideal time. They should avenge last season's 37-34 loss to the Irish at Arlington Texas.
Take ARZST.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
Iowa State -215 v. Kansas | Top | 10-34 |
Loss | -215 | 126 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the Iowa State Cyclones.
We will see two of the bottom feeders of the Big-12 face off in Kansas this week, but while both teams have identical 2-6 records, I think there is no doubt that the Cyclones are the better team.
Iowa State has won four straight in this series since 2010, by an average margin of 19 points. Last season they shut out the Jayhawks in a 34-0 home victory. The Cyclones struggled last week on the road at Oklahoma, but they have played some close games against top opponents on the road this season.
They upset rivals Iowa at Kinnick Stadium by a score of 20-17, and losses at Kansas State and Texas came by a combined seven points.
The visiting team has covered the spread in four of the last five meetings between these two conference rivals, and Iowa State has covered four straight versus teams with a losing record.
Take ISU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
Texas A&M +22 v. Auburn | Top | 41-38 |
Win | 100 | 126 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
Auburn survived a scare from the visiting South Carolina Gamecocks two weeks ago, holding on for a 42-35 victory. Last week it appeared that Ole Miss had scored the go-ahead TD in the final minute, but after video review the TD was reversed, ruled a fumble and the Tigers ran out the clock to win 35-31.
The Tigers are being asked to cover an awful large spread here against a Texas A&M team that has the ability to score points in a hurry. Of course Kenny Hill will be riding the pine, serving a suspension, but backup Kyle Allen should be better as he's had more time to work with the starting offense.
Keep in mind that Hill just barely beat out Allen for the starting job during training camp, and many consider him to be the QB of the future at College Station.
While the Aggies have lost three straight versus SEC opponents, only one of those was a blowout, an ugly 59-0 loss at Alabama. I expect head coach Kevin Sumlin to be well prepared to give the Tigers a run for their money.
This game should be a lot closer than many think.
Take TAM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-08-14 |
West Virginia v. Texas +3.5 | Top | 16-33 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Longhorns. Charlie Strong has his team playing pretty good football in recent weeks, and I don't see any reason why they should be getting points at home today against West Virginia. Keep in mind the Mountaineers have won all three of their road games, but wins over Texas Tech and Maryland came by just three points.
The Longhorns have won two of their last three, beating Iowa State and Texas Tech. The Mountaineers know that they will have their work cut out for them: "It's not a good matchup for us," defensive coordinator Tony Gibson said. "They're big and powerful, and they're going to try and run the ball and wear us down a little bit. We are going to have our work cut out for us."
Texas ran for 246 yards and three TDs in a home win over the Red Raiders last week. Tyrone Swoopes has seemingly settled in at QB for the Longhorns, throwing for 549 yards with two TDs and one INT in his last two home starts.
The Texas defense has been hard on opposing QBs, with 27 sacks and a dozen picks. It could be a long night for Clint Trickett.
Take Texas.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-06-14 |
Cleveland Browns v. Cincinnati Bengals -6 | Top | 24-3 |
Loss | -110 | 33 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Cincinnati Bengals. Cleveland fans are excited about a 5-3 start, but I would caution that they may not be quite as good as that record indicates. They've only played three games on the road, losing two of the three. Their wins have come against the likes of Tampa Bay, Oakland and Tennessee, and their last road game was a loss to Jacksonville. Cincinnati isn't exactly a friendly place to visit, as the Bengals are undefeated in their last 14 home games. The Browns aren't exactly catching them a good time, with star wideout A.J. Green back from injury, and rookie running back Jeremy Hill coming off a season high 154 yards and two TDs against Jacksonville. The Bengals have covered six straight at home versus teams with a winning record, and they beat the Browns by 21 points in Cincinnati last year. Cleveland's leading rusher Ben Tate has run for a total of just 65 yards over his last three starts. The loss of their Pro Bowl center Alex Mack seems to have put a damper on this Cleveland running game. Take CINCY. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-05-14 |
Northern Illinois v. Ball State UNDER 63 | Top | 35-21 |
Win | 100 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NIU@BALL to go UNDER the total.
The total for this game looks a little high in my opinion, but I guess these two teams have a history of playing high scoring games. You can forget about that history though, because in all those previous games the Huskies offense was pretty close to unstoppable with dual threat QB Jordan Lynch.
Northern Illinois has a different look on offense this season, averaging less than 200 passing yards per game. They fell well short of that average in their last game, throwing for a total of just 54 yards in a 28-17 win over Eastern Michigan.
Ball State is also adjusting to life after a prolific QB, as they lost Keith Wenning to the NFL draft. Sophomore Jack Milas threw for 225 yards on 18-of-36 passing for no TDs and no INTS in a 35-21 win over Akron in his last start.
The home team has seen the total go under in nine of it's last 13 when coming off a bye week, while the Huskies have failed to go over the total in all but on of their last five versus a team with a losing record.
Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule |
11-04-14 |
Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 58 | Top | 27-10 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BG@AKR to go Under the total.
The Zips are coming off back to back losses on the road, but they return home to host Bowling Green on Tuesday night. They have won 3-of-4 at home, and the only loss was to undefeated Marshall. Their defense limited opponents to a total of just 25 points in those three victories, and they rank 22nd overall in the nation allowing just over 20 points per game.
Starting QB Kyle Pohl has missed the last two games, and his status for tonight's game remains unclear as he recovers from a concussion. The Falcons lost their starting quarterback in Week 1, and backup James Knapke has thrown almost as many picks (9) as TDs (10).
The Falcons have won five straight in this series, and each of the last two seasons the games have been low scoring, failing to go over 45 total points. Tonight's total is actually higher than it was in five of the last six meetings between these two teams.
With two struggling offenses playing each other, I can't see these teams putting up a lot of points. Weather is also likely to play a role, as conditions at Akron appear to be less than optimal. The forecast is calling for 50% chance of rain with winds at 29 KM/H.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-03-14 |
Indianapolis Colts v. NY Giants OVER 50 | Top | 40-24 |
Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on IND@NYG to go OVER the total.
The Colts defense looked pretty good during a five game winning streak, but three of those five games were at home, and the others were at Jacksonville and Houston. Their resume on the road this season isn't so impressive, going 2-2 and allowing an average of 33 points in those four games. The good news for Andrew Luck and the Colts is that New York might be a friendly place to visit with the way the Giants have been playing. New York's defense ranks near the bottom of the NFL against the pass as well as the run, and it's going to be a tough challenge trying to slow down Andrew Luck. The Colts QB leads the NFL with 2731 passing yards, and he threw for 400 yards and three TDs in a losing effort last week. The Colts have seen the total go over in five straight road games, and three of the previous four meetings between these two teams have also gone over the number.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-02-14 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 47.5 | Top | 23-43 |
Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on BAL@PIT to go OVER the total. Prior to last week's game against the Colts, I said this about the Steelers: "The Steelers on the other hand were trailing 13-0 in the second quarter against the Texans on Monday, but scored 24 points in less than three minutes to take a 24-13 lead into the half." "There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about this Pittsburgh team, as they aren't going to be handed 24 points every week. We've already seen them lose at home to the Bucs, and the Cleveland Browns scored 58 points in their two games against this Steelers defense." I guess it doesn't matter how bad your defense is when Big Ben throws for 500+ yards and six TDs. They spanked the Colts, but previously their wins came against the likes of the Browns, Panthers, Jaguars and Texans, not one of those teams has a winning record. All four of the Steelers home games have gone over the total this year, while the Ravens have seen the total go over the number in six of seven on the road versus teams with a winning record. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-02-14 |
Denver Broncos -155 v. New England Patriots | Top | 21-43 |
Loss | -155 | 50 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Denver Broncos. So the Broncos are in New England on Sunday to take on the Patriots at Foxboro, and everyone is talking about Manning vs. Brady. Some might even throw out stats that would suggest Brady has had the edge in past meetings. If you are one of those, I suggest your "give your freakin head a shake". How anyone can tell me that previous games between the Patriots and the Colts, when New England had the likes of Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Aqib Talib and Teddy Brusci, have any bearing on today's game between the Broncos and a very different New England team. In fact, I'm even going to toss out last year's meetings, because this Denver team is an entirely different monster. The previously mentioned Aqib Talib shores up a vastly improved defense, while another former Patriot Wes Welker is just one of many weapons on offense. The Broncos have demolished the opposition this year, with some convincing wins over elite teams. They spanked the Niners, Cardinals and Chargers, and their only loss came on the road to the defending champs (in overtime). Take a look at New England's schedule, and you will see that while they are 4-0 at home, those four opponents have a combined record of 8-21. Here they are:
0-7 Raiders
4-2 Bengals 1-7 Jets
3-5 Bears Take DEN. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-02-14 |
Arizona Cardinals +4 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 28-17 |
Win | 100 | 60 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals are definitely catching the Cowboys at a good time here in Dallas in Week 9. Carson Palmer is back under center for the visitors, and he threw for 329 yards and a pair of TDs in a win over Philly last Sunday. The Cowoboys don't yet know if Tony Romo will start, and even if he does he's not going to be anywhere close to 100% with a fractured back.
At least the Cowboys can count on their running game with DeMarco Murray though right? Maybe not, Arizona ranks 3rd in the NFL against the run, allowing opponents to average just 77 yards per game.
The Cardinals have only lost once this season, on the road at Denver with a third string QB playing almost the entire second half. This game wasn't going to easy even at the best of times for Dallas, and these are far from the best of times.
Backup QB Brandon Weeden has thrown 26 INTS in his career, two more than he has TDs.
Take ARZ.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-02-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Houston Texans +2 | Top | 31-21 |
Loss | -100 | 60 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Houston Texans.
The Philadelphia Eagles will be looking to bounce back from a loss on the road at Arizona last week, but they might be catching Houston at a bad time. The Texans looked pretty good on the road at Tennessee last week, especially Arian Foster who ran for 151 yards and a pair of TDs on just 20 carries. Ryan Fitzpatrick finally managed to do a better job of protecting the football, throwing for 227 yards and a TD with not INTS.
Fitzpatrick isn't the only QB in this game that has struggled though, Nick Foles has thrown more picks than TDs over his past four starts. He threw for 411 yards against Arizona, but was picked off twice along with a pair of TDs. The Eagles have turned the ball over 12 times in their last four games, and Houston is ranked second in the NFL at forcing turnovers.
The Eagles have simply been making too many mistakes in this hurry up offense, and a lack of consistency in the running game has plagued them all year. Philly has lost 2-of-3 on the road this season, and I am not convinced they deserve to be a favorite here in Houston.
Take HOU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-02-14 |
Jacksonville Jaguars v. Cincinnati Bengals -11 | Top | 23-33 |
Loss | -100 | 60 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals are back in business coming off a win at home over Baltimore last Sunday. Their home winning streak now sits at 12-0-1 over their last 13 games at Paul Brown Stadium. The Bengals host the hapless Jags this week, and Jacksonville is 0-4 on the road, with an average margin of defeat over 17 points.
A.J. Green is officially listed as questionable, but it sure sounds like he is going to play: "A.J. has looked fine," coach Marvin Lewis said Friday. "He wants to play. He's telling everybody he wants to play. If everything stays the way it is, he'll play."
The Bengals defense picked of Joe Flacco twice last week, limiting the former Superbowl champ to 195 yards and zero TDs on 17-of-34 passing. They could make life very difficult for Blake Bortles, who leads the NFL with 12 INTs. He completed 17-of-31 attempts for 159 yards with a TD and three INTs in a win over Cleveland in his last start.
The Bengals are one of just two NFL teams that have more INTS (9) than passing TDs allowed (7). That doesn't bode well for the boys from the Sunshine State.
Take CINCY.
GL, Jesse Schule |
11-01-14 |
Utah v. Arizona State -220 | Top | 16-19 |
Win | 100 | 104 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on the Arizona State Sun Devils.
The Arizona State Sun Devils host the Utah Utes tonight, and Utah is missing it's leading receiver Dres Anderson. The Utes offense was already one-dimensional prior to the injury, and the passing game figures to really struggle against a tough Sun Devils defense tonight. The Utes have won three straight, once in overtime and the others by three points or less. The bounces have gone their way, but eventually the luck is sure to even out, and playing on the road against a superior opponent tonight should prove to be a daunting task. The Sun Devils have #1 QB Taylor Kelly back, and their defense has held opponents to just 20 points the last two weeks.
Take AZST.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
11-01-14 |
Utah State -150 v. Hawaii | Top | 35-14 |
Win | 100 | 104 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Utah State Aggies. The Aggies have overcome injuries at the quarterback position to win three of their last four games. Last week third stringer Craig Harrison came in to throw for 221 yards and three TDs on 13-of-23 passing. Normally I wouldn't be so confident in a third string QB on the road against a conference rival, but Hawaii just isn't very good. Warriors QB Ikaika Woosley threw for 201 yards on 18-of-32 passing with 1 TD and an INT in a loss to Nevada last week. Hawaii has just two wins so far, and both of those have come against pretty weak opposition. I think Utah State should be in good shape just leaning on it's superior defense and running game. The Aggies beat Hawaii by a score of 47-10 at home last year, and won 35-31 at Hawaii in 2011. Take USU. GL, Jesse Schule |
11-01-14 |
Auburn v. Ole Miss -125 | Top | 35-31 |
Loss | -125 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
The Rebels suffered their first loss of the season on the road at Louisiana State last week, and it was a game they probably should have won. They host the 6-1 Auburn Tigers this week, in a game with everything at stake for both teams. A loss would all but crush either team's hopes of playing for the Sec Championship, as well as a potential playoff spot.
Five of Auburn's six wins this season have come at home, and the Tigers haven't looked impressive in either of their road games, losing to Mississippi State, and just barely avoiding defeat versus the Kansas State Wildcats. They only managed 231 yards of total offense in the 20-14 win at Manhattan.
It's not going to get any easier against the nation's #1 defense this week, the Rebels have allowed opponents to average just 10.5 points per game. Auburn will have to be much better than it was last week at home against South Carolina, allowing the Gamecocks to amass 535 yards of total offense, with 416 yards in the air. The only thing stopping South Carolina from winning outright, was a the three INTs thrown by Dylan Thompson.
Bo Wallace could have a big game against a Tigers secondary that appears to be struggling.
Take MISS.
GL, Jesse Schule |
10-30-14 |
New Orleans Saints -145 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 28-10 |
Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the New Orleans Saints.
Normally the last thing I would want to do is bet on the Saints as a road favorite, but I don't think very highly of the Carolina Panthers even at home. Last week they only manged to gain a total of 266 yards in a home loss to the Seahawks, and Cam Newton was sacked three times while throwing for 172 yards and an INT on 12-of-22 passing.
Stopping the run has been a big issue for Carolina, ranking 28th in the NFL allowing opponents to average over 150 rushing yards per game. The Saints ground game is starting to pick up some steam, and last week against the Packers Mark Ingram ran for 172 yards and a TD on just 24 carries.
Even better news for the Saints was that TE Jimmy Graham caught five passes for 59 yards and a TD. Graham has struggled through a shoulder injury for most of the season, but appears to be close to fully healthy heading into this week's game in Carolina.
If you were to look at previous history, all the stats would tell you that Carolina looks good at home here. Those numbers don't tell the whole story though, and I think New Orleans is catching the Panthers at a good time. The Saints played very well on the road against Detroit two weeks ago, and they deserved a win there. This appears to be a team that has sorted things out, really finding it's stride. The Panthers on the other hand have been struggling on both sides of the ball, and I don't like their chances tonight.
Take NO.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-27-14 |
Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-17 |
Win | 100 | 184 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Washington Redskins.
Washington comes into Dallas looking to win back to back games for the first time this season. The Cowboys though have won six in a row, and they are expected to cover a double digit spread tonight.
The Redskins are still without starting quarterback Robert Griffin, and last week they benched backup Kirk Cousins in favor of third stringer Colt McCoy. The 28 year old is in his fifth season in the NFL, with plenty of experience as a starter in Cleveland for two seasons. He looked pretty sharp coming in last week completing 11-of-12 passes for 128 yards and a TD.
Of course playing on the road at Dallas could prove to be a lot tougher than a home game against the Titans. These teams have a history of playing close games though, and the Redskins are 7-1 ATS in the last eight head to head meetings. Five of those games were decided by three points or less.
Washington is 0-3 on the road, but all three of those losses came in close games. The Redskins have covered the points in six of their last seven trips to Big "D", and I think the line for tonight's game is a little inflated for a rivalry match.
Take WAS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-26-14 |
Green Bay Packers +3 v. New Orleans Saints | Top | 23-44 |
Loss | -125 | 18 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.
In recent seasons, the Saints have been money at home in situations such as this. In fact, they are 22-1 SU and 20-3 ATS in their last twenty-three home games under Sean Payton. All the computer models, trends and data you can come up with would suggest that the Sainst are the best bet at home on Sunday night ... but that's not how I roll!
The Packers have won four straight, two of those on the road, and Aaron Rodgers is playing perhaps the best football of his career. Their defense has been great against the pass, but vulnerable against the run. Can New Orleans take advantage of a Green Bay's weak run defense? Maybe not, their leading rusher Khiry Robinson will not play, and Pierre Thomas is also sidelined by injury.
I've been hearing people say all week: "The Saints don't lose at home". My answer to that is simple! Their last two home games were against the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Buccaneers, and neither of those two victories were at all convincing. They trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter against the Bucs, and were fortunate to come back and win in overtime.
The bottom line is, you can take all those stats that show New Orleans as being invincible at home, and just toss them aside. This isn't that Saints team.
Take Green Bay.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-26-14 |
Indianapolis Colts -1.5 v. Pittsburgh Steelers | Top | 34-51 |
Loss | -110 | 156 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts have won five straight, and their defense has been dominant during that span. Last week they pitched a shutout against the Bengals, and at this point I think you have to say that this team is for real. The Steelers on the other hand were trailing 13-0 in the second quarter against the Texans on Monday, but scored 24 points in less than three minutes to take a 24-13 lead into the half. There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical about this Pittsburgh team, as they aren't going to be handed 24 points every week. We've already seen them lose at home to the Bucs, and the Cleveland Browns scored 58 points in their two games against this Steelers defense. The Steelers wins come over the Browns, Panthers, Jaguars and Texans, not one of those teams has a winning record. Now they face one of the league's elite quarterbacks on a short week. The Steelers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night. Take INDY. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-26-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Arizona Cardinals -145 | Top | 20-24 |
Win | 100 | 143 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona will host the Eagles this Sunday, and the Cardinals are 5-1 with the only loss coming on the road at Denver. The Eagles are also off to an impressive start to the season, but while the record is the same, the quality of opponents certainly isn't. Only one of Philadelphia's five wins has come against a team with a winning record. The Eagles might not have much success trying to run on this Arizona defense, as the Cardinals rank 2nd overall allowing opponents to average just 72 yards per game. If they can't run, that puts more pressure on Nick Foles who has thrown more interceptions than has TDs the last three weeks. Carson Palmer is back for Arizona, and he threw for 253 yards a pair of TDs last week. He has good numbers over his three starts this season, with 807 yards and six TDs with just one INT. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings in this series, and they have won three straight home games versus Philadelphia. Take ARZ. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-26-14 |
St. Louis Rams v. Kansas City Chiefs -6 | Top | 7-34 |
Win | 100 | 153 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Cheifs. The Chiefs are coming off an upset win over the Chargers in San Diego, while the Rams shocked the Seahawks last Sunday. This is a let down spot for the Rams, who used smoke and mirrors to sneak past Seattle. Jeff Fisher went deep into the bag of tricks, with a couple of classics, helping St. Louis steal a win even though they were out-gained 463-272. Kansas City isn't likely to get caught napping today, and I expect them to pound away with the run. The Rams defense doesn't rank well in any category, but they have really struggled against the run, allowing opponents to average over 145 yards per game (28th). The Chiefs have one of the most potent ground attacks in the NFL, and they ran for 154 yards last week against a very good Chargers defense. Jamaal Charles was banged up early in the season, but he's starting to pick up steam heading into Week 8. Charles ran for 95 yards and a TD on just 22 carries last week. Kansas City has won and covered five straight versus the Rams, and I can't see this team hanging in there with this soft defense and a rookie QB on the road in the loudest stadium in the NFL. Take KC. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-26-14 |
Buffalo Bills v. NY Jets -155 | Top | 43-23 |
Loss | -155 | 140 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New York Jets. The Jets have lost six straight, but for the most part they have battled hard and have been close in all of those games. The one exception was a 31-0 loss at San Diego. Turnovers have killed New York, and much of that falls on the shoulders of Geno Smith, who has thrown as many picks as he has TDs (7). Smith has been much better recently though, throwing for 416 yards and three TDs with just one INT the last two weeks. He has a new target this week with Percy Harvin coming over from Seattle, and his presence alone should make a big difference. With Harvin on the field, at the very least it should keep opposing defenses honest, making them think twice about stacking up the line of scrimmage to stop the run. The Bills are 2-1 since bringing in veteran Kyle Orton to replace E.J. Manuel, but they were quite fortunate in both of those wins. Last week they scored with one second left on the clock to come from behind and beat the Vikings at home, and two weeks earlier they erased a 14-3 deficit to beat the Lions with a FG as time expired. Buffalo will be without Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, and that could put even more pressure on Orton. Home field advantage has been huge in this series, with the hosts winning each of the last five. The Bills are just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games, and I think they will struggle to overcome injuries here in New York today. Take NYJ. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
Nevada -155 v. Hawaii | Top | 26-18 |
Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Nevada Wolfpack. The Wofpack will take on the Warriors in Hawaii in the late game Saturday, and they've won the annual meeting in each of the last three seasons. The most one-sided of those games was their last visit to the Aloha State, as Nevada won by a score of 69-24 in 2012. Cody Fajardo threw for 220 yards and a pair of TDs in that game, and he led Nevada to an upset win over BYU last week. The Warriors are coming off a 20-10 loss at San Diego State last week, and QB Ikaika Woolsey was picked of twice throwing for 174 yards and a TD on 17-of-31 passing. Hawaii has covered the points in five straight home games, but have failed to cover in four straight against teams with a winning record. The Warriors offense really struggles, averaging just 21 points per game, ranking 112th nationally. I think the Wolfpack should be able to control the clock with their running game, and will have no trouble picking up their fourth straight win against Hawaii. Take NEV. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
Arizona State -160 v. Washington | Top | 24-10 |
Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona State Sun Devils. The Sun Devils are coming off consecutive wins over Top 25 teams, upsetting the Trojans in California and beating Stanford 26-10 at home last week. They travel to Seattle to take on the Huskies tonight, and they have owned Washington in recent seasons. Arizona State has won eight straight meetings in this series, and it has covered the points in all eight of those games. A loss last week at Oregon leaves the Huskies a little banged up, with a couple of key players less than 100%. Leading rusher Lavon Coleman is expected to play with a shoulder injury, while starting QB C.J. Miles is listed as questionable with a concussion. The Sun Devils get Taylor Kelly back from injury, but the way backup QB Mike Bercovici has played the last few weeks, it's going to be tough for coach Todd Graham to keep him on the bench. Kelly threw for 271 yards, ran for 84 and totaled four touchdowns in a 53-24 win over the Huskies last year. Washington is a tough place to play, and the Huskies aren't going to go down without a fight, but Arizona State should have too many weapons. Take ASU. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
USC +1 v. Utah | Top | 21-24 |
Loss | -110 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the USC Trojans.
Th 5-1 Utes will host the 5-2 Trojans in Utah tonight, and this game is roughly a pickem. I like the visitors, as I feel that Utah has been cruising through a soft schedule so far. Sure they upset the Bruins, but they also lost at home to unranked Washington State. The Trojans have played the Utes in each of the last three seasons, and won all three of those games. That includes a 38-28 win at Utah in 2012.
Utah's quarterback Travis Wilson has thrown seven TD passes this year, while UCS's Cody Kessler threw for seven TDs last week.
The Utes were held to a season low 201 yards in last year's loss to the Trojans, and USC leads the Pac-12 with nine interceptions. They have already gone out on the road and beat Stanford at The Farm, and they defeated the Wildcats in Arizona.
If you look at some of Utah's defensive stats, it looks pretty scary with 33 sacks on the season, and seven picks the last three weeks. Keep in mind that they put up those numbers mostly against lesser opposition, with only one game against a ranked opponent so far.
USC has covered the spread in four of their last five conference games, and I think they'll prove to be the better team here in Salt Lake City.
Take USC
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
Ole Miss -170 v. LSU | Top | 7-10 |
Loss | -170 | 111 h 14 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
There are few places tougher to play than in Baton Rouge, but the LSU Tigers have already lost at home once this year, falling to Mississippi State by a score of 34-29. They could be in tough again this week with another Mississippi team coming to The Swamp.
Ole Miss comes in with a 7-0 record and the nation's #1 ranked defense allowing an average of just over 10 points per game. Bo Wallace is having a great year at QB for the Rebels, and it was just a few weeks ago that he threw for 251 yards and three TDs in at upset win over Alabama.
The Tigers on the other hand have a rookie under center in Anthony Jennings, who only has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in all but one of his starts this season. He appeared to be shell shocked in a 41-7 loss to Auburn a few weeks ago, completing just 5-of-10 attempts for 84 yards. He's going to have his work cut out for him tonight against the best defense in the country.
History favors the visitors, who have covered the spread in seven straight trips to Tiger Stadium. I expect this game to be close, but with Ole Miss having the experienced quarterback and superior offense, I think the Rebels find a way to win.
Take MISS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
Michigan v. Michigan State -16.5 | Top | 11-35 |
Win | 100 | 118 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Michigan State Spartans.
The Spartans are a big favorite at home this week against Michigan, and you will hear a lot of a rivalry between these two teams. I don't think the Wolverines are good enough to hold up their end of the bargain this year though. The Spartans won this game by a score of 29-6 last year, and their offense has greatly improved this season.
The Wolverines on the other hand are 0-2 on the road, including a 31-0 loss at Notre Dame. Their leading rusher Derrick Green is gone for the year with a broken clavicle, and QB Devon Gardner has struggled. He threw for 210 yards on 14-of-27 passing with no TDs and an INT in last season's loss at East Lansing.
Connor Cook is having a great year for the Spartans, and he has thrown for eight TDs and just one pick at home this season.
Michigan's offense has been prone to turnovers all season long, and that's not likely to change on the road against the Spartans opportunistic defense. The Spartans have covered the spread in six straight meetings in this series, and I can't see any reason why this game would be close.
Take MSU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
10-25-14 |
Texas Tech +22.5 v. TCU | Top | 27-82 |
Loss | -110 | 107 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
The Horned Frogs have won their last two home games against #4 ranked Oklahoma and #15 Oklahoma State. The TCU defense terrorized Daxx Garman last week, picking him off twice and holding him to 132 yards passing with no TDs. The Red Raiders on the other hand snapped a four game losing skid with a win over Kansas last week.
Texas Tech is an enormous underdog here in Fort Worth, but I like their chances of hanging with the Horned Frogs. This Texas Tech offense can put up points in a hurry, and they've already been involved in some shootouts versus ranked teams. They lost to Arkansas, West Virginia and Oklahoma State, but all of those games were close.
Last week's win over Oklahoma State was aided by turnovers, and potentially sets up the Horned Frogs for a let down here a week later. The Red Raiders beat TCU 20-10 at home last year, and they've won and covered four of their last five meetings with the Horned Frogs.
Davis Webb has thrown 22 TD passes on the season, six more than Trevon Boykin. I think TCU is going to have trouble shutting down the Raiders passing game, allowing Texas Tech to hang around and get a cover.
Take TTU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |