10-02-15 |
Memphis -7 v. South Florida | | 24-17 |
Push | 0 | 4 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Memphis Tigers. Memphis is 4-0 with impressive victories over Bowling Green, Cincinnati and Kansas. They will be on the road in South Florida tonight, and they should prove to be too much to handle for the 1-2 bulls. Memphis quarterback Paxton Lynch threw for 412 yards and two TDs in a home win over Cinci last week, and he's thrown for over 1200 yards with eight TDs and not a single pick during a 4-0 start. As impressive as those stats are, the Tigers real strenght is in the running game, with an average of 227 yards per game and 16 rushing TDs. The Bulls rank dead last in the conference in red zone defense, and that's likely to spell trouble against the Tigers. Memphis has won the last two meetings in this series by a comined 24 points, and the Tigers won 23-10 in their last visit to Florida. Take MEM. GL, Jesse Schule |
10-01-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers +3 | | 23-20 |
Push | 0 | 64 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Ravens fell to 0-3 after a home loss to the Bengals last week, and still they come into Pittsburgh as a road favorite on Thursday. The Steelers aren't getting a lot of respect with Ben Roethlisberger sidelined by injury, and I like Pittsburgh as a home dog with an experienced backup quarterback.
Mike Vick didn't look great last year with the Jets, but that was a completely different situation than he finds himself in here in Pittsburgh. He will have a safety net in running back Le'Veon Bell who totaled 132 yards and a TD in his first game back from suspension last week. The Ravens running game won't give Joe Flacco much confidence, as Justin Forsett looks like a backup playing starter's minutes (that's what he is really).
The Ravens defense has struggled without Terrell Suggs, and they rank 29th in the NFL allowing opponents to average 292 passing yards per game. A.J Green shredded the Baltimore secondary for 227 yards and a pair of TDs on 10 catches last week. They will have their hands full trying to slow down Antonio Brown this week.
Vick doesn't need to win this game for the Steelers, and I think Mike Tomlin will draw up a conservative game plan that won't ask too much of his #2 quarterback on a short week. On the whole, I think the Steelers have much more going for them than Baltimore does.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-28-15 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 49.5 | | 28-38 |
Loss | -110 | 16 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on KC@GB to go UNDER the total.
We've seen the Packers put up some impressive point totals on Monday Night Football over the years, but I think the total in tonight's game looks a little too high. Green Bay isn't exactly at 100%, with Eddie Lacy banged up, and an offensive line that has struggled since Bryan Bulaga went down. Top receiver Jordy Nelson is out for the season, and the Packers are facing a fierce Kansas City defense that has eight quarterback sacks in it's first two games.
Aaron Rodgers isn't likely to have too much time in the pocket with Justin Houston and Tamba Hali breathing down his neck. Rodgers struggled the last time he faced the Chiefs, completing just 17-of-35 pass attempts and taking four sacks in a 19-13 loss back in 2011.
The Chiefs are likely to focus on establishing the run with Jamaal Charles, burning up a lot of clock in the process. They've gone under in five of their last seven road games, and with wind and rain in the forecast at Lambeau tonight, expect that trend to continue.
I'll add a rather BOLD PREDICTION... Rodgers hasn't thrown an interception at home since 2012, but I think there's a strong chance that this streak ends here tonight as he faces heavy pressure from one of the league's best pass rushers.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-27-15 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Arizona Cardinals -6 | Top | 7-47 |
Win | 100 | 159 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The San Francisco 49ers had a rough off-season, losing several key players as well as their head coach. They proved in Week 1 that they can still be competitive, beating the Vikings by a score of 20-3 at home. They looked a lot more like the team everyone expected them to be when they lost 43-18 to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. It won't get an easier this week, facing an Arizona team that owns on of the league's best defenses.
San Francisco needs to run the ball to be successful, and the Cardinals defense specializes in stopping the run. Two years ago Arizona boasted the league's #1 run defense allowing opponents to average just 84 yards per game. They took a step back last year due to injuries, but this season they're allowing an average of just 81 yards during a 2-0 start.
Carson Palmer is back healthy, and he's tied with Tom Brady for the league lead with seven TD passes. I don't give Colin Kaepernick a "Snowball's Chance in Hell" of keeping up with Palmer in a shootout.
The 49ers lost 24-13 at Arizona last year, and they only managed 82 yards on 23 rushing attempts. Palmer didn't even play in that game, but Drew Stanton threw for 244 yards and a pair of TDs, while Kaepernick found the endzone just once.
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-27-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Jets +1 | | 24-17 |
Loss | -100 | 131 h 31 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on the New York #J-E-T-S . The Eagles offense looked unstoppable in the pre-season, but they've had their wings clipped in the first two games of the regular season. It won't get any easier this week on the road in New York, facing the 2-0 Jets.
New York has terrorized opposing quarterbacks so far, picking off Andrew Luck three times on Monday night, and forcing an interception and four fumbles in Week 1 versus Cleveland. They are the first team in over 20 years to have five takeaways in each of their first two games to start a season.
That certainly doesn't bode well for the Eagles, who haven't been able to get anything going with their running game. Despite signing last year's leading rusher DeMarco Murrary in the off-season, the Eagles have run for an NFL worst 70 yards in the first two weeks. The offensive line has struggled, taking a ton of holding penalties and giving Sam Bradford very little time to get rid of the ball. Bradford has thrown four interceptions and just two TD passes during an 0-2 start.
One of the lone bright spots for Philly had been the play of linebacker Kiko Alonso, but he suffered a knee injury last week and might be done for the season. Veteran quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has been incredibly efficient so far, throwing for 423 yards with four TDs and just two picks, completing percent of his passes in the first two weeks.
Chip Kelly's nightmares are likely to continue here in New York.
Take NYJ.
GL, Jesse Schule |
09-27-15 |
Jacksonville Jaguars v. New England Patriots OVER 47 | Top | 17-51 |
Win | 100 | 156 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on JAX@NE to go OVER the total.
The Patriots offense is firing on all cylinders heading into Sunday's home game versus Jacksonville. The same can't be said for their defense, that has allowed opponents to average over 400 yards through their first two games. The Jags are coming into this game off a home win versus Miami, and Blake Bortles threw for 273 yards and a pair of TDs in that game.
Tom Brady leads the NFL with 754 yards and seven TDs through the first two games of the season, and he's likely to put up big numbers here at home against this Jags defense. The total for this game looks a little too low when you consider New England's history of running up the score at home. They've gone over the total in 35 of their last 51 home games.
The Jags will have their work cut out for them trying to slow Rob Gronkowski, who has 207 yards and four TDs so far. I don't like their chances of doing what Seattle failed to do in the Super Bowl, and what Buffalo failed to do at home last week.
With a lack of depth at the running back position, New England only attempted 15 running plays last week. We should expect more of the same this week, and leaning on the passing game should result in another high scoring game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-27-15 |
Oakland Raiders v. Cleveland Browns OVER 41.5 | Top | 27-20 |
Win | 100 | 156 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OAK@CLE to go OVER the total.
The Oakland Raiders flashed an impressive offense in a 36-33 home win over Baltimore last week, but it was the second week in a row they gave up 33 points. We see a low number here in Cleveland, and I am not convinced that either of these two defenses is going to be successful.
Derek Carr has some new weapons at wide receiver, and it payed off last week to the tune of 351 yards and three TDs. Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper each went over 100 yards, with 16 catches between them. Latavius Murray provides enough of a running game to keep teams honest, and this Raiders offense appears to be the real deal.
Cleveland got a big game from Johnny Foobtall last week, but for some reason the Browns are choosing to go back to Josh McCown here on Sunday. The Browns should get their share of points facing an Oakland team that ranks dead last in total defense.
The Raiders have gone over in six straight versus opponents from the AFC, and in four of their last five on the road.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-27-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Jets UNDER 47 | Top | 24-17 |
Win | 100 | 117 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHI@NYJ to go UNDER the total.
The Eagles offense looked unstoppable in the pre-season, but they've had their wings clipped in the first two games of the regular season. It won't get any easier this week on the road in New York, facing the 2-0 Jets.
New York has terrorized opposing quarterbacks so far, picking off Andrew Luck three times on Monday night, and forcing an interception and four fumbles in Week 1 versus Cleveland. They are the first team in over 20 years to have five takeaways in each of their first two games to start a season.
That certainly doesn't bode well for the Eagles, who haven't been able to get anything going with their running game. Despite signing last year's leading rusher DeMarco Murrary in the off-season, the Eagles have run for an NFL worst 70 yards in the first two weeks. The offensive line has struggled, taking a ton of holding penalties and giving Sam Bradford very little time to get rid of the ball. Bradford has thrown four interceptions and just two TD passes during an 0-2 start.
Despite the fact that the Jets have been dominant on defense, we see a really high number in this game. I don't see Philly scoring enough points to push the total over here, and New York has a pretty conservative approach on offense.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-26-15 |
Utah v. Oregon -13.5 | | 62-20 |
Loss | -110 | 89 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oregon Ducks.
The Ducks are ranked outside the Top 10 after losing at Michigan State in Week 2, but they still look like the team to beat in the PAC-12. They host the Utah Utes this Saturday, and they are favored by roughly two TDs. Oregon won 51-27 at Utah last season, and the Utes will be hard pressed to earn a better result on the road this week with their starting quarterback banged up.
The Utes are being quiet about the status of Travis Wilson, who missed last week's game with a shoulder injury. He threw for 297 yards for two TDs and a pair of INTs in the home loss to Oregon last year, and he has thrown for just 286 yards an an INT in two games this season.
Vernon Adams could have played last week, but the Ducks didn't need him in a 61-28 win over Georgia State. Jeff Lockie threw for 228 yards and a pair of TDs on 23-of-31 passing in the victory. All signs are that Adams will get the start here, but I think this game will be a blowout regardless of who plays quarterback for Oregon.
The Ducks have too many weapons, and I just don't see the Utes scoring enough to keep this one close.
Take ORE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-26-15 |
UCLA v. Arizona +3.5 | | 56-30 |
Loss | -115 | 60 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Wildcats.
The Bruins narrowly escaped with a come from behind win at home over BYU on Saturday. For the second straight week freshman quarterback Josh Rosen struggled, throwing for just 106 yards with a TD and three picks on 11-of-23 passing. The Associated Press still has the Bruins ranked in the Top 10, ahead of teams like Oregon, Texas A&M and Alabama. With tough road games against Arizona and Stanford in the next three weeks, they appear to be vulnerable to an upset. The Wildcats gave them all sorts of trouble last season, limiting them to just three points in the first half of a 17-7 home victory. Arizona has knocked off Top 10 teams in each of Rich Rodriguez’s three seasons as head coach, and I like their chances of making it four in a row here this week. The Bruins will have to replace Myles Jack, while Arizona is expected to get Scooby Wright back after he missed a couple games with a knee injury.
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-26-15 |
UCLA v. Arizona UNDER 64 | Top | 56-30 |
Loss | -106 | 100 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UCLA@ARI to go UNDER the total. The Bruins narrowly escaped with a come from behind win at home over BYU on Saturday. For the second straight week freshman quarterback Josh Rosen struggled, throwing for just 106 yards with a TD and three picks on 11-of-23 passing. The Associated Press still has the Bruins ranked in the Top 10, ahead of teams like Oregon, Texas A&M and Alabama. With tough road games against Arizona and Stanford in the next three weeks, they appear to be vulnerable to an upset. The Wildcats gave them all sorts of trouble last season, limiting them to just three points in the first half of a 17-7 home victory. Arizona has knocked off Top 10 teams in each of Rich Rodriguez’s three seasons as head coach, and I like their chances of making it four in a row here this week. The Bruins will have to replace Myles Jack, while Arizona is expected to get Scooby Wright back after he missed a couple games with a knee injury. With Rosen struggling, expect UCLA to lean on it's running game, burning up the clock in the process. These teams only scored 10 points in the first half of last year's game, and I see no reason for a sky high total here this week. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-26-15 |
Texas A&M -6.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 28-21 |
Win | 100 | 131 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies defense dominated in a Week 1 win over Arizona State, and the man everyone is talking about is Myles Garrett. Some are calling him the next Jadeveon Clowney, while others are saying that he could be better than 2013 #1 overall pick. He sacked the Arizona State quarterback (Mike Bercovici) twice, and terrorized him the entire game. We already expected the Aggies to be an offensive powerhouse, but if their defense can continue to play like it did in Week 1, this team will be a legitimate contender.
The 3-0 Aggies are in great shape with Kyle Allen at quarterback. He's thrown for 594 yards with nine TDs and just two picks. They take on the Razorbacks at AT&T Stadium, and Arkansas is coming off an embarrassing home loss to Texas Tech. That comes a week after they lost at home to Toledo, and Brett Bielema's team appears to be in complete disarray.
The Aggies have won three straight versus Arkansas since 2012, by an average margin of more than 20 points.
Take A&M. GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-26-15 |
TCU v. Texas Tech +8 | Top | 55-52 |
Win | 100 | 129 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
TCU is on UPSET ALERT! They scored 56 points in a win over SMU on Saturday, but the Horned Frogs are a mess on defense. They gave up 37 points at home against the Mustangs, and since they defeated Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl, they've had to replace their entire defense, with not one starter remaining. DE Mike Tuaua was suspended indefinitely on Monday after his arrest for assault and robbery.
They've struggled on the road dating back to last year, failing to cover in a 23-17 win at Minnesota in their season opener, and beating unranked Kansas and West Virginia by a combined four points in the second half of last season. They did score a record 82 points in a blowout win at home over the Red Raiders last year, which sets up a classic revenge spot here for Kliff Kingsbury's team.
The Red Raiders are also 3-0, coming off an upset win on the road against the Razorbacks. While Arkansas is struggling, a double digit win on the road versus an SEC opponent is something that should raise a few eyebrows. Texas Tech has the ability to score enough points to keep up with TCU, with the offense in the hands of sophomore quarterback Patrick Mahomes. He's thrown for over 1000 yards with nine TDs and three picks so far in 2015.
We should see a shootout here in Texas, and when the smoke clears, I wouldn't be surprised if the home team pulls off the outright upset win
Take Texas Tech.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-26-15 |
BYU +4.5 v. Michigan | Top | 0-31 |
Loss | -106 | 127 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the BYU Cougars.
The Cougars nearly shocked the UCLA Bruins in California last Saturday, but they allowed a last minute TD, falling to 2-1 on the season. They have another tough road game this Saturday in Michigan, facing the 2-1 Wolverines. This looks like a very tough matchup for offensively anemic Wolverines though, with their struggling quarterback going up against a defense that has picked off opposing quarterbacks six times in the last two weeks, despite the fact that both games came against ranked teams. They are tied for the FBS lead with seven total picks.
Jake Rudock has been picked off five times in three games, and he only threw for 123 yards against the UNLV Rebels at home last week. The Cougars are in great shape with freshman quarterback Tanner Mangum, who has the highest completion percentage for a BYU quarterback since Max Hall in 2009. "He's amazing," coach Bronco Mendenhall said. "Road games are not too big. Different stadiums, different teams -- he's showing a lot of command for a true freshman."
Michigan hasn't been kind to bettors lately, failing to cover in six of their last seven non-conference games, and eight of their last nine in September. I think they continue to be overrated, and I can't see any reason why they should be laying points here against a ranked opponent.
Take BYU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-24-15 |
Washington Redskins v. NY Giants -185 | | 21-32 |
Win | 100 | 33 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the New York Giants ML.
Amazingly the Giants head into Week 3 with an 0-2 record, when they should likely be 2-0. They opened up early leads in both of their first two games of the season, but they saw a couple of elite quarterbacks engineer late comeback wins. The good news for the Giants is, after getting burned by Tony Romo and Matty Ice, they only have to worry about Kirk Cousins tonight.
Cousins didn't play well at all in 2014, and by far his worst game came against the Giants. He threw for 257 yards with a TD and four picks on 19-of-33 passing in a 45-14 home loss. He's looked a little better so far after two home games in 2015, but his numbers a pretty pedestrian with a pair of TDs and two INTs during a 1-1 start.
Most of Washington's early success has come with the running game, and that could change here tonight. The Giants defense has been quite successful stopping the run, ranking third overall in the NFL allowing just 136 yards so far. The Giants held Alfred Morris in check last year, holding the star running back to 112 yards on 26 carries in two games.
Odell Beckham Jr. had a big game last Sunday, and he caught a dozen passes for 143 yards and three TDs the last time these two teams faced each other. I don't think the Redskins can stop Beckham Jr., and I don't like their chances here on the road.
Take NYG.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-24-15 |
Cincinnati v. Memphis -9.5 | Top | 46-53 |
Loss | -110 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Memphis Tigers.
Memphis is off to a 3-0 start to the season, and the Tigers have scored an average of over 50 points per game so far. They host the Cincinnati Bearcats tonight, a team that they really had their way with last year. Memphis went into Cincinnati and beat the Cats by a score of 41-14, and Gunner Kiel struggled, completing just 11-of-27 passes for 216 yards with a TD and an INT.
Kiel might not even play tonight after suffering a head injury against Miami-OH on Saturday. If he can't go, it would be a huge blow to the Bear-Kittens. His backup Hayden Moore completed 7-of-14 passes for 118 yards and a pair of INTs last week. If Kiel plays at less than 100 percent, we could see Moore come in to replace him at some point.
Who starts at quarterback could be the least of their worries though, as the Bear-Kittens were steamrolled for 220 rushing yards against one of the minnows of the MAC last week. Miami-OH averaged 4.4 yards per carry in a losing effort. They have their hands full tonight, facing one of the most potent rushing attacks in the country. Memphis ranks in the Top 10, with 753 yards and 12 TDs on the ground in three games so far. Combine that with a potent passing game led by Paxton Lynch who has thrown for 816 yards and six TDs so far, and he's yet to throw an INT.
I expect the Tigers to tame the Cats here in Memphis.
Take MEMPHIS.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-21-15 |
NY Jets v. Indianapolis Colts OVER 46.5 | | 20-7 |
Loss | -105 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NYJ@IND to go OVER the total.
While it's only Week 2, this game already feels like a must win for the Colts. They were embarrassed in a 27-14 loss at Buffalo last week, but I like their chances of getting the offense going here at home against the Jets. They are hoping to have wide receiver T.Y. Hilton back, he was limited in practice on Saturday and is listed as a game time decision.
Both teams have some key injuries on defense, especially at corner. Antonio Cromartie is questionable with a knee injury, while the Colts secondary is really banged up. The Jets didn't score a lot of points last year, but they've got a different look on offense this year with Brandon Marshall, coming over from the Bears to play opposite Eric Decker. Ryan Fitzpatrick hooked up with both wideouts for TDs in a 31-10 win over Cleveland last Sunday.
The Jets ran for 154 yards in the win over the Browns, and the Colts run defense is likely to struggle again here tonight. Five of the last six head to head meetings between these two teams have gone over the total, and tonight's number looks a little on the low side.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-15 |
Dallas Cowboys v. Philadelphia Eagles UNDER 55.5 | Top | 20-10 |
Win | 100 | 86 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DAL@PHI to go UNDER the total.
The Cowboys needs a miraculous rally to beat the Giants at home in Week 1, but that game really should never have been as close as it was. The Dallas defense actually did a great job shutting down Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. Manning threw for just 193 yards with no scores on 20-of-36 passing. Beckham Jr. was held to five catches for 44 yards.
The Eagles came into this season with a hyped up offense that was supposed to score at will, but they managed just three points in the first half against the Falcons. Sam Bradford didn't look sharp overall, throwing a couple of picks and missing a couple of open targets that should have been easy touchdowns. DeMarco Murray was a non factor carrying the ball just eight times for a total of nine yards.
We see the total is sky high once again this week, despite the fact that the Eagles were grounded by the Falcons, and Dallas comes in to Philly without Dez Bryant. I expect to see both these teams try to establish the run in this divisional contest, and I don't think either defense is going to be giving up easy yards.
Philly's defense actually looked pretty good in Atlanta, picking off Matt Ryan twice, and holding the Falcons to 105 yards rushing on 35 carries (three yards per carry). The Cowboys have failed to go over the total in seven of their last nine overall, and none of those games saw a number as high as we see today.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-15 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -10 | | 26-19 |
Loss | -100 | 76 h 38 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on the New Orleans #Saints. It came as no surprise to me that the Buccaneers were blown out at home in a 42-14 loss to Tennessee in Week 1. Here is what I said prior to the game: "If Bucs fans were hoping Jameis Winston would save the day, they are about to be sadly disappointed. I've never been a fan of Famous Jameis, who I think has always been overrated. They say he only lost one game in his two year career at Florida State, and that would be a lot more impressive if he played in the SEC. The fact is most of those wins came against cupcakes, making his stats in 2014 even more concerning. Winston threw 18 picks last year, the most of any quarterback ranked in the top 40 in passing yards in the FBS."
I expect the rookie to continue to struggle on the road in a hostile environment in New Orleans. He may have his moments though, as the Saints defense struggled in a Week 1 loss to Arizona, and they ranked among the worst in the NFL against the pass last season.
The Buccaneers defense made a rookie quarterback on a poor team look like a Hall of Famer last week, and this week they will face a legitimate Hall of Famer in Drew Brees. The Saints star quarterback led the league in passing yards last season, and he threw for 355 yards and a TD with one INT against a very strong Arizona defense on the road in Week 1.
He should be able to shred up this terrible Tampa secondary, and we should see a blowout in the Big Easy.
Take New Orleans.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-15 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints OVER 47 | Top | 26-19 |
Loss | -108 | 156 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TB@NO to go OVER the total.
It came as no surprise to me that the Buccaneers were blown out at home in a 42-14 loss to Tennessee in Week 1. Here is what I said prior to the game: "If Bucs fans were hoping Jameis Winston would save the day, they are about to be sadly disappointed. I've never been a fan of Famous Jameis, who I think has always been overrated. They say he only lost one game in his two year career at Florida State, and that would be a lot more impressive if he played in the SEC. The fact is most of those wins came against cupcakes, making his stats in 2014 even more concerning. Winston threw 18 picks last year, the most of any quarterback ranked in the top 40 in passing yards in the FBS."
I expect the rookie to continue to struggle on the road in a hostile environment in New Orleans. He may have his moments though, as the Saints defense struggled in a Week 1 loss to Arizona, and they ranked among the worst in the NFL against the pass last season.
The Buccaneers defense made a rookie quarterback on a poor team look like a Hall of Famer last week, and this week they will face a legitimate Hall of Famer in Drew Brees. The Saints star quarterback led the league in passing yards last season, and he threw for 355 yards and a TD with one INT against a very strong Arizona defense on the road in Week 1.
He should be able to shred up this terrible Tampa secondary, and we should see a blowout in the Big Easy. The Saints have scored an average of 40 points in their last three home games versus Tampa.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-15 |
Arizona Cardinals -1 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 48-23 |
Win | 100 | 156 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Cardinals were one of the NFL's best teams last season, until Carson Palmer went down with an injury. The Cardinals won eight of their first nine games, and went into Week 10 with the league's top rated defense. "We're as talented as anybody in this league," Palmer said. "I think if you're to put our roster up against anybody's roster and just kind of look at all the intangibles of each guy and the backups, I would put our roster up against everybody." I have to agree with the veteran quarterback. This team is loaded with talent and depth, and should be a contender in the NFC West.
They certainly looked the part in Week 1, defeating the Saints by a score of 31-19. Palmer threw for 307 yards and three TDs on 19-of-32 passing. The defense did a good job against last year's passing leader, limiting Drew Brees to one TD and an INT.
The Bears lost to the Packers in Week 1, and that was quite a predictable result. Jay Cutler completed 50 percent of his passes for 225 yards with a TD and an INT. The Bears had success with the running game last week, but it could be a lot more difficult to pick up yards on the ground against the Cardinals, who only gave up 54 rushing yards last week.
Take Arizona.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-15 |
New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills | Top | 40-32 |
Loss | -104 | 146 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.
The Bills didn't just upset the heavily favored Colts in Week 1, they demolished Indianapolis by a score of 27-14. Their defense terrorized Andrew Luck, forcing him into two interceptions, and sacking him twice. Rookie quarterback Tyrod Taylor was extremely efficient, throwing for 195 yards and a TD on 14-of-19 passing. Karlos Williams led the team with 55 yards and a TD on just six carries. He might be asked to do more this week as Shady McCoy is a little banged up.
The Patriots had all sorts of defensive issues in their win over the Steelers, and they let a 32 year old backup running back go for 127 yards on 21 carries. The fact of the matter is, if the Steelers didn't continue to shoot themselves in the foot, they should have had a chance to win that game. Without Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the Pats secondary really struggled. Antonio Brown caught nine passes for 133 yards and a TD.
Brady had a big game, but playing on the road in Buffalo is a whole different monster in comparison to picking apart the Steelers at home. The lack of a running game didn't hurt them in Week 1, but a one-dimensional offense could be in trouble on the road against one of the NFL's best defenses.
Take BUF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-20-15 |
San Francisco 49ers v. Pittsburgh Steelers -6.5 | Top | 18-43 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots had all sorts of defensive issues in their win over the Steelers, and they let a 32 year old backup running back go for 127 yards on 21 carries. The fact of the matter is, if the Steelers didn't continue to shoot themselves in the foot, they should have had a chance to win that game. Without Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner, the Pats secondary really struggled. Antonio Brown caught nine passes for 133 yards and a TD. The Niners come in to Pittsburgh on short rest after a Monday night game, while the Steelers have had plenty of time to plan and prepare since Thursday. This advantage should be even more evident in the first half, and I expect Pittsburgh to run up the score before halftime. Take PIT. GL, Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
BYU v. UCLA UNDER 60 | Top | 23-24 |
Win | 100 | 44 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BYU@UCLA to go UNDER the total.
The Cougars upset Nebraska with a Hail Mary pass in the dying seconds in Week 1, and then they did it again at home against Boise State on Saturday. These two victories have propelled BYU into the Top 25, and some are even calling the Cougars a dark horse playoff contender. It might be a little premature for BYU fans to start celebrating though, as they have a tough game coming up on the road at UCLA, and surely they can’t expect to execute a Hail Mary this time around. With a healthy Taysom Hill I might have believed this was a game they had a shot at winning, but I can’t see Tanner Mangum pulling another miracle out of his hat here in California.
The Bruins beat UNLV last week, but Josh Rosen and Jerry Neuheisel combined to throw for just one TD and three picks, completing less than half of their attempts. They face a Cougars defense that has looked pretty solid during a 2-0 start, with a total of four INTs on opposing quarterbacks so far.
Six of the last eight meetings between these two teams have gone under, and the Bruins have trended under at a rate of 5-1-1 in their last seven home games.
Take UNDER,
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
Ole Miss +7 v. Alabama | Top | 43-37 |
Win | 100 | 130 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Ole Miss Rebels.
The Rebels scored a potential game winning TD at home against Auburn last year, that would have put them at 8-1 through their first nine games, and still on track to win the conference. The go-ahead score was overturned after video review however, and Mississippi would lose to Auburn by a score of 35-31. They also lost star wideout Laquon Treadwell who suffered a broken leg on the play, which caused him to fumble the ball in the endzone.
That's how close this team came to appearing in the SEC Championship game against an Alabama team that they defeated earlier in the season. The Rebels ranked #1 nationally in scoring defense in 2014, and they return eight starters on both sides of the ball here this season.
The Rebels held Derrick Henry to just 37 yards on 17 carries in last year's game, and Blake Sims threw for 228 yards on 19-of-31 passing with no TDs and an INT. Nick Saban has yet to decide on a replacement for Sims, as Jake Coker and Cooper Bateman have split the workload so far. Neither has impressed, and last week they each threw interceptions at home against Middle Tennessee.
Mississippi's quarterback Chad Kelly threw for 346 yards and four TDs in a win over Fresno State last week. The Rebels have scored 149 points in the first two weeks, and that's a great sign for a team that owns the SEC's best defense. I think Kelly may be able to take advantage of an inexperienced Alabama secondary, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Rebels win this game outright. Take Ole Miss. GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
Nebraska v. Miami (Fla) -160 | | 33-36 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Miami Hurricanes.
Nebraska beat up on South Alabama last Saturday, winning by a score of 48-9. That came after a shocking home loss to BYU, losing on a Haily Mary as time expired. This will be their first road game of the season, and they won last year's meeting by a score of 41-31. Brad Kaaya threw a pair of INTs in that game, and Ameer Abdullah ran for 229 yards and a pair of TDs.
Kaaya is more experienced here this season, coming in with 460 yards with three TDs and no interceptions. He finished last season strong, with 12 TDs and just two picks in his final six games. The Canes won't have to worry about Abdullah this time around, as he's moved on to the NFL, and Nebraska's running game hasn't looked the same without him.
The Cornhuskers defense has allowed it's first two opponents to throw for a combined 692 yards, and it's a tough ask to slow down Kaaya at home in Miami. He's 6-2 with 20 TDs and four INTs in his eight career starts at Sun Life Stadium.
I like the Canes to avenge last year's loss in Lincoln.
Take MIA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
Northwestern v. Duke UNDER 49 | Top | 19-10 |
Win | 100 | 93 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NW@DUKE to go UNDER the total.
After a 2-0 start that included a shocking upset win over Stanford in their season opener, the Wildcats have moved into the Top 25. Their defense has not surrendered a touchdown in the first two weeks, and they are on the road at Duke this Saturday. They have won six of their last seven versus Duke, and they’ve won five straight at Durham. The Wildcats are a 3.5 point underdog on Saturday. Northwestern DE Ifeadi Odenigbo told the Chicago Tribune after the Wildcats’ shutout win Saturday he expects them to do the same to Duke. In a game that I expect to be a hard fought defensive battle, it’s awful tempting to take the points.
Rather than pick a side though, I think the better play is on the total. Neither team is prolific on offense, and both teams take pride in playing strong defense. They have played four times since 2002, and not one of those games came close to reaching the total here for today's game. The Wildcats have seen the total go under in seven of their last eight non-conference games, and seven straight in September. Duke has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 11 overall.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-19-15 |
UNLV v. Michigan UNDER 48 | Top | 7-28 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNLV@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines won big at home against Oregon State last week, and their defense continues to impress. I'm still a little hesitant to back this Michigan team as a big favorite though, as it's not going to be easy to run up the score without any serious threat in the passing game. Jake Ruddock didn't get into the endzone in the home opener, throwing for just 180 yards and an INT on 18-of-26 passing. He's now throwing twice as many picks (4) as TDs (2).
The Rebels are coming off a home loss to UCLA, but their defense gave the Bruins quarterbacks a bit of a tough time. Josh Rosen and Jerry Neuheisel combined to throw for just one TD and three picks, completing less than half of their attempts. The Rebels chose to run the ball 43 times, picking up 181 yards but only managing a late field goal to avoid being shutout.
UNLV is likely at risk of being shutout again here in the Big House, where the Wolverines have seen the total go under in four straight. Michigan has also failed to reach the total in five straight non-conference games.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-17-15 |
Denver Broncos v. Kansas City Chiefs OVER 41.5 | | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 82 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on DEN@KC to go OVER the total.
The Broncos are coming off a home win over the Ravens that didn't see much in the way of offense. This has people pretty down on Peyton Manning, who struggled at the end of last season and throughout the pre-season. I think it may be a little too early to count out one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the game. To be fair, Denver jumped out to an early lead in that game, and they were never playing from behind.
Also, the Bronco's conservative approach came as no surprise to me, here is what I said prior to the game: "I think this Denver team is going to have a different look in 2015. Rather than depending on Peyton Manning to carry the offense with an all out air attack, I expect more of an emphasis on the running game."
The total in this game seems far to low considering the short turnaround off a late game on Sunday. Traditionally we have seen teams struggle to execute on defense with less time to prepare for an upcoming opponent.
The Chiefs offense showed flashes of greatness in the pre-season, and they executed well in a 27-20 win over the Texans in Houston in Week 1. Alex Smith threw for 243 yards and three touchdowns on 22-of-33 passing.
These teams have gone under in three of the last four head to head meetings, but the total was at least a touchdown higher in all four of those games. They scored 40+ points in all four of those games, and only once did they fail to score more than the listed total for tonight's game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-17-15 |
Clemson -5.5 v. Louisville | | 20-17 |
Loss | -105 | 17 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Clemson Tigers.
At first glance, a 31-24 loss to an SEC team in Week 1 doesn't look too bad, but Louisville looks significantly worse after a home loss to Houston in Week 2. It's also worth noting that Auburn needed overtime to avoid being upset by an FCS team. The Week 1 loss to Auburn wasn't as close as the score would indicate, as the Cardinal scored two TDs in garbage time in the finale 6 1/2 minutes.
Reggie Bonnafon and Lamar Jackson combined to throw for 167 yards and an INT on 17-of-33 passing against Auburn. Jackson got another chance against Houston, but was replaced by third stringer Kyle Bolin after throwing a pair of INTs. Louisville coach Bo Pelini has already announced that Bolin will start tonight.
So the Cardinal will send their third string quarterback in to face a tough Clemson defense that ranked first nationally in scoring defense in 2014. The Tigers are in good shape at the quarterback position with a healthy Deshaun Watson. The sophomore was injured in the win over Louisville last year, and Clemson's offense sputtered in his absence. He's completed 77 percent of his passes with five TDs in two games so far in 2015.
Take CLEM.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-14-15 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 53 | Top | 24-26 |
Loss | -110 | 677 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHI@ATL to go OVER the total.
The Falcons will host the Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 1, and we should expect plenty of scoring in this one. These two teams are both explosive on offense, but a little suspect on the defensive side of the ball. The Falcons ranked dead last in the NFL in total defense last season, and I don't like their chances of slowing down these Eagles here tonight.
Chip Kelly comes into this season with a new quarterback, and Sam Bradford looked great in the pre-season. He threw for 121 yards and three TDs on 10-of-10 passing in the Eagles Week 3 "dress rehearsal" game in Green Bay.
Matt Ryan threw for 448 yards and three TDs in the Falcons home opener against the Saints last year, winning by a score of 37-34. When Julio Jones is healthy, he's been impossible to stop. He's averaged more receiving yards per game than any other player in the NFL over the last two seasons. We can expect Jones to have a big day here against a Philly defense that struggled against the pass last season. Philly ranked 31st in the league against the pass, only Atlanta ranked worse.
The Eagles have seen the total go over in four of their last five road games, and I expect that trend to continue here in the dome in Atlanta tonight.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-15 |
NY Giants v. Dallas Cowboys -6 | Top | 26-27 |
Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Dallas Cowboys.
In 2014, Eli Manning nearly doubled his TD total, while reducing the number of interceptions thrown to nearly 50% from the previous season. Will he be able to do it again in 2015, that's something that remains to be seen. It starts with the offensive line, which has been a sore spot in recent seasons. This unit is still a big question mark, coming into the season banged up, lacking depth. The Giants ranked 29th in the NFL in total defense last year, and that cost coordinator Perry Fewell his job. They turn to a familiar face in 2015, with Steve Spagnuolo coming back. His job may be a lot more difficult after Jason Pierre-Paul lost a finger in a fireworks accident this summer. When all is said and done, I don't trust Eli Manning, and I think Odell Beckham Jr. is going to have a tough time living up to all the hype.
The Cowboys lost the NFL's leading rusher when DeMarco Murray bolted to Philly, and that has people wondering how much the Cowboys are going to miss him. I think a better question is how much is Murray going to miss running behind the best offensive line in the NFL? There's no doubt in my mind that Joseph Randle and the rest of the Cowboy's deep backfield will thrive this season.
The Giants have lost four straight to the Cowboys, and I don't like their chances on the road here without Victor Cruz and Jason Pierre-Paul.
Take Dallas.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-15 |
Tennessee Titans +3 v. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | | 42-14 |
Win | 100 | 103 h 2 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on the Tennessee #Titans. If Bucs fans were hoping Jameis Winston would save the day, they are about to be sadly disappointed. I've never been a fan of Famous Jameis, who I think has always been overrated. They say he only lost one game in his two year career at Florida State, and that would be a lot more impressive if he played in the SEC. The fact is most of those wins came against cupcakes, making his stats in 2014 even more concerning. Winston threw 18 picks last year, the most of any quarterback ranked in the top 40 in passing yards in the FBS. Mariota threw just four picks despite a more difficult schedule.
While the Titans only won two games in 2014, four of their losses came in games decided by five points or less. The future looks bright with Marcus Mariota stepping in at quarterback, and the rookie is coming off a very positive pre-season. He would finish with a passer rating of 102.9, throwing for 326 yards with a TD and and INT on 21-of-30 passing. Winston was wildly inconsistent this pre-season, and in the Bucs Week 3 "dress rehearsal" game, he threw for just 90 yards and an INT on 6-of-15 passing.
The Bucs won just two games last season, both of those victories coming on the road. They are asked to cover a three point spread in Week 1, and I like the visitors to record the upset.
Take TEN.
GL, Jesse Schule |
09-13-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Denver Broncos UNDER 49.5 | Top | 13-19 |
Win | 100 | 171 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BAL@DEN to go UNDER the total.
The Broncos will begin the season at home against Baltimore, and I think this Denver team is going to have a different look in 2015. Rather than depending on Peyton Manning to carry the offense with an all out air attack, I expect more of an emphasis on the running game. I also believe they will have one of the league's best defenses with a healthy Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. The Broncos had a whopping 20 sacks on opposing quarterbacks this pre-season.
"It's going to be a work in progress through the year, too," vice president of football operations John Elway said. "We're not going to be kicking on all cylinders. We'd like to, but it's still going to be a work in progress with this offense and people are going to continue to get more and more comfortable with it, even after we start the regular season."
The Ravens have a revamped secondary with a healthy Jimmy Smith and newly acquired Kyle Arrington at the corners. "I think we're going to be a pretty darn good football team," Harbaugh told the Ravens' official website. "We're excited about where we're at, and I can't wait to see what we do when the games are for real."
While these teams have gone over the total in four straight meetings, the number in this game is higher than it was in any of those contests.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-15 |
New Orleans Saints v. Arizona Cardinals -129 | Top | 19-31 |
Win | 100 | 297 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.
The Saints are coming off a brutal 2014 season, finishing with a 7-9 record and missing the playoffs. They lost tight end Jimmy Graham, wide receiver Kenny Stills and DE Junior Galette in the off-season, and they are coming off an 0-4 pre-season. Still the betting public seems to have faith in the Saints, as they are just a slight favorite on the road in Arizona in Week 1.
The Cardinals were one of the NFL's best teams last season, until Carson Palmer went down with an injury. The Cardinals won eight of their first nine games, and went into Week 10 with the league's top rated defense. "We're as talented as anybody in this league," Palmer said. "I think if you're to put our roster up against anybody's roster and just kind of look at all the intangibles of each guy and the backups, I would put our roster up against everybody."
I have to agree with the veteran quarterback. This team is loaded with talent and depth, and should be a contender in the NFC West. The Saints defense was terrible last year, only the Atlanta Falcons surrendered more yards per game. They didn't give us any reason to expect an improvement this pre-season, and Carson Palmer should be in line for a big day in the Cardinals home opener.
Palmer was 6-0 as a starter last year with 1,626 yards, 11 TDs and just three interceptions.
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-15 |
Seattle Seahawks -180 v. St Louis Rams | | 31-34 |
Loss | -180 | 313 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Seahawks.
The Seahawks will be without Kam Chancellor in St. Louis on Sunday, but make no mistake about it, this is still the best defense in the league. The Rams upset Seattle last year, but the Seahawks have still won four of the last five meetings between these two teams, including a 14-9 win at St. Louis in October of 2013. I don't like the Rams chances here with a new quarterback, and their third and fourth string running backs.
Tre Mason and Todd Gurley are both sidelined by injuries, leaving Benny Cunningham and Isaiah Pead to carry the load. It's a tough ask against Seattle's run defense that allowed opponents to average just 81.4 yards per game last season. They held St. Louis to just 42 yards in a 20-6 home win the last time these teams faced each other.
While the offensive line is a bit of a concern for Seattle, they do come into the 2015 season with some new offensive weapons. Jimmy Graham gives Russell Wilson a dependable target at tight end, and Fred Jackson gives them depth in the backfield. Rookie wide receiver Tyler Lockett looked dangerous on special teams this pre-season, returning a kick for a 103 yard TD in Week 1.
I just don't think the Rams will be able to do enough offensively to win this game.
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-15 |
Kansas City Chiefs v. Houston Texans UNDER 41 | Top | 27-20 |
Loss | -105 | 577 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KC@HOU to go UNDER the total.
The Chiefs begin the season on the road in Houston, and I am expecting both these teams to dominate defensively. Kansas City has failed to reach the total in five of it's last six road games, and the Texans have seen the total go under in five of their last seven overall.
Both J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney are healthy and ready to go for Houston, and that's not good news for a Chiefs team that failed to throw a touchdown pass to a wide receiver last season. The good news for Kansas City fans is that they have Jamaal Charles (self proclaimed LeBron James of football). Houston's defense ranked in the Top 10 in the NFL against the run last season, and that was without Clowney. They could be even tougher this season, and as bad as they look offensively they will have to be.
The Texans quarterback situation has been an absolute nightmare in recent seasons, and it's tough to believe that Brian Hoyer is going to be the answer. He completed just 55% of his passes, throwing for a dozen TDs and 13 picks with the Browns last season. Arian Foster won't play, leaving him without a safety net in the backfield. Alfred Blue didn't inspire much confidence filling in for Foster last year, averaging just 3.1 yards per carry and totaling just two TDs.
The Under is 42-19-1 in Chiefs last 62 games on grass.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-13-15 |
Miami Dolphins -170 v. Washington Redskins | Top | 17-10 |
Win | 100 | 373 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Miami Dolphins.
The Redskins are the laughing stock of the NFL, and their continued mismanagement of quarterback RGIII was front and center again this pre-season. Griffin will start this game on the bench after suffering a concussion in theWa pre-season. Kirk Cousins has been named the starter, and the Redskins have lost seven of nine with Cousins at quarterback. The 27 year old has more interceptions (19) in his career than he does touchdowns (18).
To be fair, the poor play of Washington's offensive line is probably to blame for much of his struggles. They Skins will have their work cut out for them trying to hold off a fierce Miami pass rush and newly acquired Ndamukong Suh. "It's Suh, it's Wake, it's Vernon, they have a great front," Gruden said. "(Defensive tackle Earl) Mitchell is doing a great job so I think just trying to keep them off balance (is key)."
Washington lost seven of it's final eight games last year, and this downward spiral appears to have no end in sight.
Take MIA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Boise State v. BYU UNDER 55 | Top | 24-35 |
Loss | -110 | 115 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BSU@BYU to go UNDER the total.
It was a bitter-sweet beginning to the season for the Cougars, who upset Nebraska with a Hail Mary pass, but lost start quarterback Taysom Hill for the rest of the season. The Cougars host Boise State on Saturday night, and the Broncos looked rather lackluster in a home win over the Washington Huskies.
New quarterback Ryan Finley looked pretty shaky, completing 16-of-26 passes for 129 yards and an interception. The defense did all the heavy lifting though, limiting the Huskies to just 179 total yards.
These two teams have a history of playing low scoring defensive battles, and prior to last year's meeting they had gone under in the previous three meetings dating back to 2004. One of those games was the most epic defensive battle I have every seen in college football, when the Broncos won 7-6 on the Blue Turf in 2012.
Tanner Mangum was the hero for BYU last week, throwing for 111 yards and a TD on 7-of-11 passing. He threw a 42 yard strike to Mitch Matthews with one second left on the clock giving the Cougars the win. The freshman has his work cut out for him here this week against a stout Boise State defense, and the Cougars are surely going to miss Taysom Hill.
These teams scored a ton of points in last year's meeting, but both teams have since had to replace their quarterbacks as well as their leading rusher. With both offenses missing that firepower, I think we'll see a far more defensive battle this time around.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Rice v. Texas -14 | Top | 28-42 |
Push | 0 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Longhorns.
So everybody is pretty down on Texas after that shellacking at South Bend last weekend, but I think people are reading too much into that one game. After all, it was a road game against a team that is considered by many to be a legitimate playoff contender.
Looking back to last season, most of us will remember that Texas suffered a similar defeat at the hands of BYU in Week 2. What you might not remember is that the following week, they came so very close to upsetting the #12 ranked UCLA Bruins in a neutral site game (albeit in Arlington Texas). In their next game they shutout the Jayhawks in Kansas, winning 23-0.
Returning home with a bee in their bonnet, I expect the Horns to have little trouble punishing a minnow out of the C-USA here on Saturday. They've played Rice 10 times since 1998, winning each game, and covering the spread in five of the last six. They were favored by an average margin of more than four TDs in those games, and here this week they are asked to cover a number less than half that size.
The Owls are 4-10 in their last 14 versus the BIG12, and Texas is 10-3 ATS in it's last 13 versus the C-USA.
Hook 'em Horns.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Oklahoma +1 v. Tennessee | Top | 31-24 |
Win | 100 | 138 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oklahoma Sooners.
This is what I said about the Sooners in my pre-season Power Rankings column: "You might remember that Oklahoma beat Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, and went into last season as one of the favorites to win the National Championship. They were 8-4 last year, with two losses by just a single point. Quarterback Trevor Knight completed just 56% of his passes for 2300 yards with 14 TDs and 12 INTs. It was a disappointing season for Knight, who had thrown for 348 yards and four TDs in the win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. While most people think the BIG12 is a two horse race between Baylor and TCU, the Sooners have a new quarterback in Baker Mayfield, and he could be the missing piece to the puzzle in Norman"
Oklahoma looked impressive in a Week 1 win over Akron, and Mayfield threw for 388 yards with three TDs and no INTs. The defense allowed the Zips to gain just 88 yards in the air, limiting them to just three points. They are on the road at Tennessee this week, and I wasn't impressed with the Vols in Week 1.
While they beat Bowling Green by a score of 59-30, their defense looked pretty damn shaky. Falcons quarterback Matt Johnson threw for 433 yards and a pair of TDs, and the Vols gave up more than 500 total yards to an opponent out of the MAC.
People are high on Tennessee this year, but I think this team is still too young to compete with elite opponents such as Oklahoma, a team that they lost to by 24 points last season.
Take OKLA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Oregon State +15.5 v. Michigan | Top | 7-35 |
Loss | -110 | 137 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Oregon State Beavers.
The Wolverines lost on the road at Utah in Week 1, and they return home to host another Pac-12 team in Oregon State this Saturday. The Beavers are adjusting to life without the PAC-12 All Time passing leader Sean Mannion, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams. They focused on running the football in a 26-7 win over Weber State, and they ran for 281 yards in the victory.
We should see a defensive battle here in Michigan, as the Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the country, and the Beavers only allowed 178 total yards last week. Neither team showed much promise in the passing game, Jake Ruddock was picked off three times in Week 1, and Seth Collins threw for less than 100 yards for the Beavers.
Michigan is asked to cover an enormous spread when you consider it has failed to cover in nine straight against opponents from the PAC12. I think bookmakers aren't giving enough respect to this Oregon State defense, and I expect to see a closely contested defensive battle here.
The Wolverines have seen five of their last six home games fall short of the total, and they've gone under in four of their last five versus PAC12 teams.
Take ORST.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Oregon State v. Michigan UNDER 48 | Top | 7-35 |
Win | 100 | 83 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ORST@MICH to go UNDER the total.
The Wolverines lost on the road at Utah in Week 1, and they return home to host another Pac-12 team in Oregon State this Saturday. The Beavers are adjusting to life without the PAC-12 All Time passing leader Sean Mannion, who was drafted by the St. Louis Rams. They focused on running the football in a 26-7 win over Weber State, and they ran for 281 yards in the victory.
We should see a defensive battle here in Michigan, as the Wolverines have one of the best defenses in the country, and the Beavers only allowed 178 total yards last week. Neither team showed much promise in the passing game, Jake Ruddock was picked off three times in Week 1, and Seth Collins threw for less than 100 yards for the Beavers.
Michigan is asked to cover an enormous spread when you consider it has failed to cover in nine straight against opponents from the PAC12. I think bookmakers aren't giving enough respect to this Oregon State defense, and I expect to see a closely contested defensive battle here.
The Wolverines have seen five of their last six home games fall short of the total, and they've gone under in four of their last five versus PAC12 teams.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-12-15 |
Houston v. Louisville UNDER 54 | Top | 34-31 |
Loss | -110 | 105 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOU@LOU to go UNDER the total.
Louisville lost 31-24 to Auburn in Week 1, but came away from that game with plenty of positives. They picked off Tigers quarterback Jeremy Johnson three times, limiting him to 131 yards on 11-of-21 passing. Their own offense didn't impress much though, with Reggie Bonnafon and Lamar Jackson combining to throw for just 167 yards on 17-of-33 passing.
The last meeting between these two teams was a 20-13 home win for the Cardinals, and I expect a similar result here this time around. Houston has failed to reach the total in eight of it's last 11 games versus a team with a losing record, and seven of it's last nine games in September.
The Cardinals have trended under at home at a rate of 20-9-1 in their last 30 home games. I don't think Houston is going to have much success here in Louisville, and I think these teams will struggled to score a combined 50 points. With a total in the mid fifties, I think the boomakers have made a mistake.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-11-15 |
Utah State v. Utah OVER 44 | | 14-24 |
Loss | -106 | 90 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on USU@UTAH to go OVER the total.
The Utes won a defensive battle at home against Michigan in Week 1 by a score of 24-17. The bookmakers are calling for another low scoring battle here on Friday night against rivals Utah State, but I think the number here is a little too low.
Since 2008 these teams have met four times, and the Utes have won three of those four games. The total in all of those games was set at 50 or higher, and three of those four games went over. The exception was a 27-20 Aggies win in 2012, which is still more points than the total for this game.
Chuckie Keeton did not look sharp at quarterback for the Aggies last week, throwing for just 110 yards and an INT on 16-of-33 passing. He threw for 314 yards and a pair of TDs against Utah the last time these teams met. He also ran the ball for 85 yards and a TD .
The total has gone over in five of the last six meetings in this series, and I'll take a stab at the over with an extremely low total here in this game.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-10-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers v. New England Patriots UNDER 52 | | 21-28 |
Win | 100 | 38 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on PIT@NE to go UNDER the total. The Patriots are defending Super Bowl champions, and they open the 2015 season at home versus Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football. Tom Brady has won his appeal against the NFL, and his suspension was overturned, allowing him to start here in Week 1. So everything is fine and dandy in New England? Well .. not exactly. Tom Brady has had a rough pre-season, on and off the field. Let's not worry about his personal life, and all the rumors regarding his marriage, and just focus on the fact that he didn't play very well at all in limited action in three pre-season games. Then you take a look at New England's offense without Brandon LaFell and LeGarrette Blount, and possibly Julian Edelman, it would be no surprise to see the 38 year old struggle here in Week 1. The Steelers aren't anywhere near full strength either, with Le'veon Bell and Martavis Bryant serving suspensions, and starting center Maurkice Pouncey sidlined with a broken ankle. Unlike New England though, they have decent backups at running back with Dri Archer and DeAngelo Williams. They also have more depth at wide receiver, with Markus Wheaton and Antonio Brown. I think Pittsburgh's offense will be good enough to keep this game close, not good enough to run up the score. Take UNDER . GL, Jesse Schule |
09-10-15 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +7.5 v. New England Patriots | Top | 21-28 |
Win | 100 | 48 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Patriots are defending Super Bowl champions, and they open the 2015 season at home versus Pittsburgh on Thursday Night Football. Tom Brady has won his appeal against the NFL, and his suspension was overturned, allowing him to start here in Week 1.
So everything is fine and dandy in New England? Well .. not exactly. Tom Brady has had a rough pre-season, on and off the field. Let's not worry about his personal life, and all the rumors regarding his marriage, and just focus on the fact that he didn't play very well at all in limited action in three pre-season games. Then you take a look at New England's offense without Brandon LaFell and LeGarrette Blount, and possibly Julian Edelman, it would be no surprise to see the 38 year old struggle here in Week 1.
The Steelers aren't anywhere near full strength either, with Le'veon Bell and Martavis Bryant serving suspensions, and starting center Maurkice Pouncey sidlined with a broken ankle. Unlike New England though, they have decent backups at running back with Dri Archer and DeAngelo Williams. They also have more depth at wide receiver, with Markus Wheaton and Antonio Brown.
I think Pittsburgh's offense will be good enough to keep this game close.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-07-15 |
Ohio State v. Virginia Tech UNDER 53 | | 42-24 |
Loss | -109 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on OSU@VT to go UNDER the total. The Buckeyes come into the 2015 season as a unanimous #1 in all the polls, and I think they are every bit as good as they are cracked up to be. They should be all fired up here in Week 1, with a chance to avenge their only loss of last season. The Hokies upset Ohio State in Columbus by a score of 35-21, and J.T. Barrett had his worst game of the season throwing three INTs. J.T. Barrett wasn't the only quarterback that struggled in last year's game, as the Buckeyes also picked off Michael Brewer twice.
That game went way over the total of 46, but we see a much higher number here in Blacksburg tonight. I think the value lies with a play on the under, as I think the defenses of both teams should dominate here in Week 1. The Hokies have seen the total go under in 14 of their last 20 games on grass, and 11 of their 13 games last season failed to reach the number that is listed here tonight. Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule |
09-07-15 |
Ohio State v. Virginia Tech +14.5 | Top | 42-24 |
Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on Virginia Tech.
The Buckeyes come into the 2015 season as a unanimous #1 in all the polls, and I think they are every bit as good as they are cracked up to be. They should be all fired up here in Week 1, with a chance to avenge their only loss of last season. The Hokies upset Ohio State in Columbus by a score of 35-21, and J.T. Barrett had his worst game of the season throwing three INTs. J.T. Barrett wasn't the only quarterback that struggled in last year's game, as the Buckeyes also picked off Michael Brewer twice.
That game went way over the total of 46, but we see a much higher number here in Blacksburg tonight. I think the value lies with a play on the under, as I think the defenses of both teams should dominate here in Week 1. The Hokies have seen the total go under in 14 of their last 20 games on grass, and 11 of their 13 games last season failed to reach the number that is listed here tonight.
The Buckeyes opened as a double digit favorite here, which is already a tough ask on the road in a tough environment. Now public money has pushed that number up a few points, and now they are asked to cover two TDs. Keep in mind, this team needed double overtime to get past Penn State at Happy Valley, and just barely slipped past the Gophers 31-24 in Minnesota last season. This Hokies defense is a whole different animal, and should not be taken lightly.
The OSU offense could also be slowed by the absence of suspended wide receiver Corey Smith, and injured Noah Brown. Their biggest loss though is defensive end Joey Bosa, who is serving a suspension for violating team rules. Take VT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-05-15 |
Texas v. Notre Dame UNDER 54.5 | Top | 3-38 |
Win | 100 | 392 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEX@ND to go UNDER the total.
The Irish will host the Texas Longhorns in their season opener, and Notre Dame is a double digit favorite. I don't think Texas is getting enough respect though, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a close, low scoring game decided by just a few points.
While this is just the second season under Charlie Strong, I think the Longhorns are far better than people are giving them credit for. They were 6-6 last season, and five of their six losses came against Top 25 teams. The only exception was a home loss to BYU, a team that probably should have been ranked at the time, and would find it's way into the Top 25 shortly after.
They lost to #12 UCLA by just three points, and they came very close to upsetting #11 ranked Oklahoma in Dallas, losing 31-26. The Texas defense was quite good last year, while the offense was their weakness. Tyrone Swoopes returns at quarterback, after throwing for 2409 yards with 13 TDs and 11 TDs in 2014.
Malik Zaire will take over at quarterback for the Irish, after Everett Golson transferred to Florida State. He's got plenty of skills, but he lacks experience and this could be a tough opponent all things considered.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-05-15 |
Texas +10 v. Notre Dame | Top | 3-38 |
Loss | -110 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Longhorns.
The Irish will host the Texas Longhorns in their season opener, and Notre Dame is a double digit favorite. I don't think Texas is getting enough respect though, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a close, low scoring game decided by just a few points.
While this is just the second season under Charlie Strong, I think the Longhorns are far better than people are giving them credit for. They were 6-6 last season, and five of their six losses came against Top 25 teams. The only exception was a home loss to BYU, a team that probably should have been ranked at the time, and would find it's way into the Top 25 shortly after.
They lost to #12 UCLA by just three points, and they came very close to upsetting #11 ranked Oklahoma in Dallas, losing 31-26. The Texas defense was quite good last year, while the offense was their weakness. Tyrone Swoopes returns at quarterback, after throwing for 2409 yards with 13 TDs and 11 TDs in 2014.
Malik Zaire will take over at quarterback for the Irish, after Everett Golson transferred to Florida State. He's got plenty of skills, but he lacks experience and this could be a tough opponent all things considered.
Take TEX.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-05-15 |
Arizona State v. Texas A&M -160 | | 17-38 |
Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Texas A&M Aggies. The Aggies came out of the gates winning five straight in 2014, but went on to lose five of their next seven. Keep in mind though that all of those five losses came to SEC powerhouse teams like Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU. They open the 2015 season with a neutral site game versus the Arizona State Sun Devils, who have been one of the better teams in the PAC12 over the last few years.
The Sun Devils had two fewer losses than the Aggies, but all three losses were pretty ugly. They lost at home by a 35 point margin versus UCLA, and then on the road at unranked Oregon State. In the final week of the season they came up short, losing by double-digits at Arizona . I believe this Aggies offense is superior to to all three of those teams, by a country mile.
Defense was a sore spot for the Aggies last year, but there is reason to be optimistic that they will show improvements under new coordinator John Chavis. Kevin Sumlin showed us last year just how well he could draw up a game plan when given unlimited time to scheme away. I think we're going to see Speedy Noil and Kyle Allen hook run a clinic on this Arizona State defense.
Take the Aggies.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-04-15 |
Baylor v. SMU UNDER 74.5 | Top | 56-21 |
Loss | -110 | 84 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BAY@SMU to go UNDER the total.
The Baylor Bears have scored more points than any other team in the country over the last two seasons, and that's why we see such a big number here tonight against an inferior opponent. There's no question that this is going to be a blowout, but I think that the bookmakers are being a little too optimistic about just how many points these teams can score in their season opener.
These two teams met in Week 1 last season, and the Bears shutout SMU winning 45-0. That was in Waco, and this time they will travel to Dallas. I don't expect the Mustangs to have much success scoring on Baylor's defense, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bear's offense show signs of rust with a new starting quarterback here in Week 1.
These teams have played each other 10 times since 1990, and Baylor has won every time. All but one of those games were blowouts, but only once did they combine to score more than 75 points.
Take UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
09-03-15 |
Michigan v. Utah -5.5 | Top | 17-24 |
Win | 100 | 345 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Utah Utes.
Jim Harbaugh will make his coaching debut at Michigan on Thursday night, and he's trying to turn around a program that won just five games last year. One of their losses came at home by a score of 26-10 to Utah. The Wolverines may be hard pressed to see a better result here on the road in Week 1.
The first order of business for Harbaugh will be a focus on protecting the football, as the Wolverines turned the ball over 26 times last year, ranking 101st nationally. He's not tipping his hat as to who will start at quarterback, but neither Jake Ruddock or Shane Morris inspire a lot of confidence (likely why he's keeping it quiet).
The Utes only lost four games last season, and three of those four losses came against ranked teams. They recorded impressive wins against UCLA, USC and Stanford. Utah ranked second in the PAC12 in total defense, allowing an average of just 393 yards per game. They have an experienced quarterback in senior Travis Wilson, who threw for 172 yards and a TD on 14-of-20 passing in the win over Michigan last year. Morris was 4-for-13 for 32 yards and an INT for the Wolverines in that game.
While I don't doubt that Michigan will improve in 2015, I don't expect it to happen in Week 1 on the road against an experience Utah team that beat them handily at home last year.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
02-01-15 |
Seattle Seahawks v. New England Patriots OVER 48 | Top | 24-28 |
Win | 100 | 318 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER for Super Bowl XLIX. It seems that the overwhelming majority of the pundits expect this game to be close. ESPN's writers and radio hosts released their Super Bowl picks today, and of 40 predicted scores, only three people predicted a margin of victory greater than a TD. I think it might be wishful thinking to expect such a close game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see this game turn into a blowout. If Seattle's #1 ranked defense shuts down the Patriots, we should see a low scoring game right? Well not necessarily.. just look at what happened last year against the Broncos, or in each of their two previous playoff games. If the Seahawks defense isn't able to stop Brady, then the Patriots are likely to run away with this game. The addition of LeGarrette Blount gives the Pats another deadly weapon on offense, making them that much harder to stop. These teams have met three times over the last 10 years, and all three of those games saw the total go over. Seattle has seen the total go over in nine of it's last 12 playoff games. Take OVER. GL, Jesse Schule |
02-01-15 |
Seattle Seahawks -110 v. New England Patriots | Top | 24-28 |
Loss | -110 | 63 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks. I like the Seahawks to repeat as Super Bowl champs. They own the league's best defense, as well as the #1 ranked rushing offense. They actually matchup quite well against New England, and we all know they have a history of shutting down elite quarterbacks.
Their come from behind win against the Packers was no exception, they held Aaron Rodgers to just 178 yards on 19-of-34 passing, with one TD and a pair of INTs.
The Patriots have been in cruise control since October, but lets not forget that Monday Night Football game in Kansas City on September 29. The Chiefs dominated the game from start to finish, running all over the New England defense. The final score was 41-14, and Tom Brady finished the game on the bench after throwing for 159 yards and two INTs.
The Pats didn't matchup well against the Chiefs, and the reality is .. Seattle can do everything the Chiefs can do, only better.
Marshawn Lynch went off in the NFC Championship Game, running for 157 yards and a TD in Seattle’s 28-22 come from behind win. Russell Wilson did not look sharp, especially in the first half against the Packers. With Wilson coming off possibly the worst performance of his career (4 INTs), Pete Carroll should look to establish the run early in the Super Bowl.
While he didn’t put up big numbers in last year’s Super Bowl win over the Broncos, he did get in the end zone for a second quarter TD. Lynch scored four TDs in Seattle’s final three games of the season, against the elite defenses of San Francisco, Arizona and St. Louis.
I expect Lynch to have a big game here in the "Big Game".
Take SEA.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-18-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots -6 | Top | 7-45 |
Win | 100 | 86 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New England Patriots.
The Patriots host the Colts in the AFC Championship Game Sunday, and we see a high total in a game that is expected to be a shootout. The Colts though have allowed an average of just 11.5 points in back to back playoff wins.
The Patriots needed to rally to come from behind and beat the Ravens last week, winning by a score of 35-31. I expect to see a much better effort from the Pats this week, against a Colts team that they have owned in recent seasons.
New England has won five straight in this series, covering the points in each of the last three. We saw the Patriots lean heavily on the running game when these teams met in last year's playoffs. LaGarrette Blount ran for 166 yards and four TDs in that game, and he's back in New England after playing for Pittsburgh for most of the season. The Pats are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games versus an opponent with a winning record.
Take NE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-18-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. New England Patriots UNDER 54 | Top | 7-45 |
Win | 100 | 79 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@NE to go Under the total. The Patriots host the Colts in the AFC Championship Game Sunday, and we see a high total in a game that is expected to be a shootout. The Colts though have allowed an average of just 11.5 points in back to back playoff wins. Last week's upset win at Denver was their sixth straight game that went under the total. The Patriots needed to rally to come from behind and beat the Ravens last week, winning by a score of 35-31. I expect to see a much better effort from the Pats this week, against a Colts team that they have owned in recent seasons. New England has won five straight in this series, covering the points in each of the last three. We saw the Patriots lean heavily on the running game when these teams met in last year's playoffs. LaGarrette Blount ran for 166 yards and four TDs in that game, and he's back in New England after playing for Pittsburgh for most of the season. Between these two teams they've seen just two of their last 13 games go over the total. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-12-15 |
Ohio State v. Oregon -6 | Top | 42-20 |
Loss | -110 | 130 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Oregon Ducks. I actually have a pending futures bet on the Ducks at 10-1 to win the National Championship, and that pick was published on my Facebook page back in July: AS PUBLISHED JULY 14, 2014 This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks to with the National Championship. The new playoff format should be a huge benefit to a team like Oregon. Remember that Alabama was our national championship team in 2013, finishing the season with the exact same record as Oregon. The Tide played Notre Dame in the Championship Game, despite the fact that the Irish were nowhere near the second best team in the country. The Ducks played K-State in the Fiesta Bowl, winning easily by a score of 35-17. After a disappointing 2013-2014 season that ended with quarterback Marcus Mariota playing hurt with a knee injury, the Ducks look stronger than ever heading into the 2014-2015 season. Mariota is back, and he’s one of the Heisman favorites. He will be joined by All-American center Hroniss Grasu, and junior Byron Marshall who led the Pac-12 in rushing last year. The Ducks have an embarrassment of riches with talent on both sides of the ball, and coach Mark Helfrich should have a good handle on things in his second season since taking over for Chip Kelly. Of the handful of elite teams in college football, I think Oregon has the fewest potential question marks. You never know what you’re going to get from Famous Jameis (he could be in jail before season’s end). Nick Marshall was arrested on drug charges over the summer, while Alabama needs to replace A.J. McCarron. Take OREGON. GL, Jesse Schule Also Published July 14:
This is a 10* play on Marcus Mariota to win the Heisman. In my mind there is no doubt that it’s Mariota and not Jamies Winston that is the best quarterback in the country, and I believe the Ducks are a far better team than Florida State. The Ducks also have a schedule loaded with cupcakes that will allow Mariota to put up some big numbers against the likes of California, Oregon State, Colorado and Arizona. Of course it’s not just a two horse race, but with Mariota likely to put up “video game” type numbers, he’s the clear favorite in my mind. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-11-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos UNDER 54 | Top | 24-13 |
Win | 100 | 57 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on IND@DEN to go UNDER the total. Peyton Manning has thrown twice as many INTS (6) as he has TDs (3) over his last three starts. Denver though has won three of those games, including the season finale against Oakland. It appears that the Broncos have got their running game going in time for the playoffs, and we can expect them to lean heavily on the run here on Sunday. The Colts didn't impress at home against Bengals last week, and a similar effort here against the Broncos won't get it done. Watching the game, one thing that stood out to me was just how balls were dropped by the Indy receivers. This is a not a new issue for the Colts, as they led the league in drops during the regular season. Denver's defense is healthier than it has been for most of the season, and I expect them to make life very tough for Andrew Luck. The Broncos have forced 13 turnovers while winning five of their last six games, and they finished 8-0 at home outscoring the opposition by more than 14 points in those games. These teams met in Week 1, and Denver took a 17 point lead into the locker room at the half. We could see a more conservative approach here in the playoffs, and I think these teams will have trouble scoring enough points to push the total over. Take Under. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-11-15 |
Indianapolis Colts v. Denver Broncos -7 | Top | 24-13 |
Loss | -100 | 57 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on the Denver Broncos. Peyton Manning has thrown twice as many INTS (6) as he has TDs (3) over his last three starts. Denver though has won three of those games, including the season finale against Oakland. It appears that the Broncos have got their running game going in time for the playoffs, and we can expect them to lean heavily on the run here on Sunday. The Colts didn't impress at home against Bengals last week, and a similar effort here against the Broncos won't get it done. Watching the game, one thing that stood out to me was just how balls were dropped by the Indy receivers. This is a not a new issue for the Colts, as they led the league in drops during the regular season. Denver's defense is healthier than it has been for most of the season, and I expect them to make life very tough for Andrew Luck. The Broncos have forced 13 turnovers while winning five of their last six games, and they finished 8-0 at home outscoring the opposition by more than 14 points in those games. These teams met in Week 1, and Denver took a 17 point lead into the locker room at the half. We could see a more conservative approach here in the playoffs, but I think we'll see the same team prevail. Take DEN. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-11-15 |
Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers -6.5 | Top | 21-26 |
Loss | -100 | 155 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers. The Cowboys will play the Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday, despite the fact that many feel they didn't deserve to beat the Lions last week. The Cowboys come from behind victory was aided by bad calls, non calls, and reversed calls that allowed them to erase a 14 point deficit. It wasn't pretty for the Cowboys, as Tony Romo was sacked a season high six times, Dex Bryant was held to three catches for 48 yards and DeMarco Murray ran for just 75 yards on 19 carries. Now they face a Packers team that boasts an undefeated 8-0 home record, and the forecast is calling for freezing cold temperatures with wind and snow. Aaron Rogers is dealing with a calf injury, but that didn't stop him from leading the Packers to a 30-20 win over Detroit two weeks ago, throwing for a pair of TDs and running in another. He's thrown 25 TD passes and NO interceptions at home this season, and hasn't thrown an INT at home since midway through the 2012 season. Take GB. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-11-15 |
Dallas Cowboys v. Green Bay Packers UNDER 53 | Top | 21-26 |
Win | 100 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DAL@GB to go UNDER the total. The Cowboys will play the Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday, despite the fact that many feel they didn't deserve to beat the Lions last week. The Cowboys come from behind victory was aided by bad calls, non calls, and reversed calls that allowed them to erase a 14 point deficit. It wasn't pretty for the Cowboys, as Tony Romo was sacked a season high six times, Dex Bryant was held to three catches for 48 yards and DeMarco Murray ran for just 75 yards on 19 carries. Now they face a Packers team that boasts an undefeated 8-0 home record, and the forecast is calling for freezing cold temperatures with wind and snow. Dallas is surely going to try to keep the ball out of Rodgers' hands by running the ball and burning up the clock. The Cowboys have seen the total go under in four of their last five playoff games, and the number for this game looks a little high. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-10-15 |
Carolina Panthers v. Seattle Seahawks -11 | Top | 17-31 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 2-Team (7-point) teaser with Seattle + Under.
The Carolina Panthers are coming off a home win over Arizona on Wildcard Weekend, and they held the Cardinals to a record low 78 total yards. It's not going to be so easy on the road at Seattle this week though, facing a Seattle offense that leads the NFL in rushing averaging 172 yards per game.
The Seahawks come in as winners of six straight, all six of those wins coming by double digits. Their #1 ranked defense has allowed opponents to score an average of just 6.5 points in those games. Five of those six games fell short of the total, and the only exception was a 35-6 win at Arizona.
The Seahawks have won four straight versus Cam Newton and the Panthers since 2010, and they covered the spread in three of those four contests. Three of those games went under, with the only exception being Seattle's 31-14 win at home in December of 2010.
Cam Newton threw for 172 yards with no TDs on 12-of-22 passing in the home loss to Seattle in October of this season.
Take SEA+UNDER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-10-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. New England Patriots UNDER 48 | | 31-35 |
Loss | -110 | 33 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Under. The Pats have a record of 12-3 over their last 15 home playoff games, but two of those three losses came to Baltimore. I don't think that past success should provide any comfort to Ravens fans though, as they have a daunting task ahead of them at Foxboro this Saturday. New England's defense is vastly improved since losing to Baltimore in January of 2013. They were undefeated at home this season prior to losing their season finale to Buffalo, with Tom Brady on the bench in the second half of a meaningless game. The Ravens were rather fortunate to have upset the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week, as they were out-gained 387-299 in total yards. The Steelers turned the ball over three times, including a pair of INTs thrown by Ben Roethlisberger. The Ravens secondary has struggled for the most part this season, and even last week Ben Roethlisberger 334 yards on 31-of-45 passing. The Weather is expected to be a factor in this game, with a bitter cold snap sweeping the country. The forecast is calling for subzero temperatures as well as wind. This could force both teams to lean more on the run, and keep the score down. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-04-15 |
Detroit Lions +8 v. Dallas Cowboys | Top | 20-24 |
Win | 100 | 123 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Lions.
The Lions QB Matthew Stafford has a reputation as a guy who doesn’t perform well on the road, but last week he threw for 217 yards and three TDs in a snow storm at Green Bay. He has a far more favorable matchup against Dallas on Sunday. The Cowboys defense is their Achilles Heel, but they’ve been so successful running the ball that they’ve been able to keep their defense off the field. That could prove more challenging against the NFL’s #1 ranked run defense, and #2 ranked overall defense. I expect Stafford and the Lions to have plenty of opportunities on offense this week.
Tony Romo has emerged as an MVP candidate, and it seems that everyone has forgotten all the big game meltdowns in past seasons. He's going to have his work cut out for him this week, up against Ndamukong Suh and a Lions defense that had 20 INTs during the season (3rd in the NFL).
Megatron has had an off year, but he’s still the best receiver in the league, and he appears to be reasonably healthy heading into this Wild Card game. This looks like a favorable matchup, as Dallas has really struggled against the pass (26h in the NFL). We saw DeSean Jackson burn the Cowboys secondary for an 80 yard strike last week.
I think the Lions will find enough holes in this shaky Dallas defense to keep this game close.
Take DET.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-04-15 |
Detroit Lions v. Dallas Cowboys OVER 48 | Top | 20-24 |
Loss | -110 | 123 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on DET@DAL to go OVER the total.
The Lions QB Matthew Stafford has a reputation as a guy who doesn’t perform well on the road, but last week he threw for 217 yards and three TDs in a snow storm at Green Bay. He has a far more favorable matchup against Dallas on Sunday. The Cowboys defense is their Achilles Heel, but they’ve been so successful running the ball that they’ve been able to keep their defense off the field. That could prove more challenging against the NFL’s #1 ranked run defense, and #2 ranked overall defense. I expect Stafford and the Lions to have plenty of opportunities on offense this week.
Tony Romo has emerged as an MVP candidate, and it seems that everyone has forgotten all the big game meltdowns in past seasons. He's going to have his work cut out for him this week, up against Ndamukong Suh and a Lions defense that had 20 INTs during the season (3rd in the NFL).
Megatron has had an off year, but he’s still the best receiver in the league, and he appears to be reasonably healthy heading into this Wild Card game. This looks like a favorable matchup, as Dallas has really struggled against the pass (26h in the NFL). We saw DeSean Jackson burn the Cowboys secondary for an 80 yard strike last week.
I think the Lions will find enough holes in this shaky Dallas defense to keep this game close. These teams have seen the total sail over the number in five straight meetings.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-04-15 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | Top | 10-26 |
Win | 100 | 120 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts.
The Cincinnati Bengals come limping into Indianapolis without their two best receivers, and a starting quarterback that has thrown more than his fair share of interceptions in recent weeks. Dalton was picked off twice in the loss to the Steelers last week, and A.J. Green suffered a concussion that will keep him out of today's game versus the Colts.
TE Jermaine Gresham is also banged up with a sore back, and several players are recovering from a flu bug that forced the team to wear masks on their flight to Pittsburgh last week.
The Bengals were shutout in a 27-0 loss at Indianapolis in October, and Andy Dalton was brutal in that game. He threw for just 126 yards on 18-of-38 passing.
The Colts closed out the season with a win at Tennessee, and their defense limited the Titans to just 192 total yards. It's going to be tough for the Bengals to win on the road with a depleted lineup against the leagues top passing offense. Cincinnati hasn't had much luck stopping opposing QBs this season, ranking 20th in the NFL against the pass, allowing 243 yards per game.
Take IND.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-04-15 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts UNDER 49.5 | Top | 10-26 |
Win | 100 | 120 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on CIN@IND to go UNDER the total. The Cincinnati Bengals come limping into Indianapolis without their two best receivers, and a starting quarterback that has thrown more than his fair share of interceptions in recent weeks. Dalton was picked off twice in the loss to the Steelers last week, and A.J. Green suffered a concussion that will keep him out of today's game versus the Colts.TE Jermaine Gresham is also banged up with a sore back, and several players are recovering from a flu bug that forced the team to wear masks on their flight to Pittsburgh last week.
The Bengals were shutout in a 27-0 loss at Indianapolis in October, and Andy Dalton was brutal in that game. He threw for just 126 yards on 18-of-38 passing.
The Colts closed out the season with a win at Tennessee, and their defense limited the Titans to just 192 total yards. The Bengals have seen the total fall short of the number in six straight road games, and four straight visits to Indianapolis.
Take UNDER.
GL, Jesse Schule |
01-03-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 46.5 | Top | 30-17 |
Win | 100 | 103 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BAL@PIT to go OVER the total.
The last time Big Ben saw the Ravens defense, he lit them up for 340 yards and six TDs in a 43-23 home win. The Ravens are back in Steel Town, and I am not sure they'll be able to do anything to slow this high octane offense this time around. Baltimore's defense did not perform well against the pass, ranking 23rd in the NFL, allowing an average of 248 yards per game. In a loss to the Texans in Week 16, the Ravens only managed 213 yards of total offense. Joe Flacco should be able to put up bigger numbers against the Steelers, who's pass defense ranks even worse than Baltimore's. The Over is 11-4-1 in the last 16 meetings in Pittsburgh. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-03-15 |
Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers -152 | Top | 30-17 |
Loss | -152 | 103 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The last time Big Ben saw the Ravens defense, he lit them up for 340 yards and six TDs in a 43-23 home win. The Ravens are back in Steel Town, and I am not sure they'll be able to do anything to slow this high octane offense this time around. Baltimore's defense did not perform well against the pass, ranking 23rd in the NFL, allowing an average of 248 yards per game. In a loss to the Texans in Week 16, the Ravens only managed 213 yards of total offense. Joe Flacco should be able to put up bigger numbers against the Steelers, who's pass defense ranks even worse than Baltimore's. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS in their last six home playoff games, and they have never lost to the Ravens in the playoffs. I think Pittsburgh should find a way to out-score the Ravens at Heinz Field Saturday, even if Bell can't play. Take PIT. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-03-15 |
Arizona Cardinals v. Carolina Panthers UNDER 38 | Top | 16-27 |
Loss | -105 | 99 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 5* play on ARI@CAR to go UNDER the total. The Carolina Panthers get a home game in the playoffs even though they finished with a losing record during the regular season. Carolina comes in hot, winning their final four games. They are asked to cover quite a few points here against the Cardinals, and I think it's not very realistic to expect them to blowout a team with an elite defense. Only one of the Panthers seven wins this year came against a team with a winning record, and their last two home wins came in games decided by four points or less (to Tampa and Cleveland). The Cardinals were in line to finish first in the NFC West until they lost both their starting QB Carson Palmer, and backup Drew Stanton. Nobody seems to have much faith in third stringer Ryan Lindley, who threw for 316 yards and a pair of TDs last week in a 20-17 loss to San Francisco. What I find the most interesting about this matchup, is the Cardinals defense versus a run happy Carolina offense. The Panthers have found a lot of running room against weak opposition in the NFC South, but things might be a lot tougher here on Saturday. With bad weather expected on game day, this could be a game won in the trenches.The Under is 19-7 in Panthers last 26 games on grass. Take UNDER. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-03-15 |
Arizona Cardinals +6 v. Carolina Panthers | Top | 16-27 |
Loss | -115 | 99 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Cardinals. The Carolina Panthers get a home game in the playoffs even though they finished with a losing record during the regular season. Carolina comes in hot, winning their final four games. They are asked to cover quite a few points here against the Cardinals, and I think it's not very realistic to expect them to blowout a team with an elite defense. Only one of the Panthers seven wins this year came against a team with a winning record, and their last two home wins came in games decided by four points or less (to Tampa and Cleveland). The Cardinals were in line to finish first in the NFC West until they lost both their starting QB Carson Palmer, and backup Drew Stanton. Nobody seems to have much faith in third stringer Ryan Lindley, who threw for 316 yards and a pair of TDs last week in a 20-17 loss to San Francisco. What I find the most interesting about this matchup, is the Cardinals defense versus a run happy Carolina offense. The Panthers have found a lot of running room against weak opposition in the NFC South, but things might be a lot tougher here on Saturday. Take ARI. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-01-15 |
Florida State v. Oregon -7.5 | Top | 20-59 |
Win | 100 | 590 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Oregon Ducks.
While the Seminoles have won 25 straight games dating back three seasons, they haven't been anywhere near the same team this year that they were in previous years. This team has been flirting with disaster since Week 1, when it needed a late rally to beat Oklahoma State 37-31.
Jameis Winston was picked off twice in that game, throwing for 370 yards and a TD on 25-of-40 passing. He was plagued by interceptions all year long, finishing with 17 total. He threw four interceptions against the Gators in a 24-19 win on November 29.
The Ducks QB situation is quite different, the Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota threw for 313 yards and two TDs, with three rushing TDs in a 51-13 win in the Pac-12 Championship Game. He’s matched up against a Florida State defense that has allowed a lot of points against mediocre teams this season. I expect Mariota to have another monster game in the Rose Bowl.
He did a much better job protecting the football, throwing for 38 TDs and just two INTs. He doesn't steal crab legs, he hasn't been accused of sexual assault, and doesn't get suspended for shouting sexually explicit comments (while still under investigation for sexual assault). In simple terms, Marcus Mariota makes better decisions than Jameis Winston, and playing QB is all about making good decisions.
The Ducks out-classed the likes of Stanford, Michigan State, UCLA and Arizona during the regular season, and Florida State didn't really out-class anybody. I expect to see the Seminoles win streak come to an end in the Rose Bowl.
Take ORE.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
01-01-15 |
Michigan State +3 v. Baylor | Top | 42-41 |
Win | 100 | 171 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Michigan State Spartans. The Baylor Bears were the highest scoring team in the country, and they very nearly qualified for the first ever NCAA Football Playoffs. The selection committee ultimately decided that Ohio State was more deserving than either Baylor or TCU from the Pac-12. While it was a controversial decision, I actually think they made the right call. One of the reasons why I think Baylor didn't get the nod, was their struggles again big, physical teams, and their lackluster play away from home. We also saw this Baylor team lay an egg in their bowl game versus UCF last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them deliver another stinker here in the Cotton Bowl. Another reason why I like the Spartans, is that they actually have a good enough offense to win this game in a shootout. Connor Cook had a big year after making a name for himself in last year's Rose Bowl win over Stanford. Take MSU. GL, Jesse Schule |
01-01-15 |
Wisconsin v. Auburn -6 | Top | 34-31 |
Loss | -115 | 497 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Auburn Tigers.
Auburn will face the Wisconsin Badgers in the Outback Bowl on New Years Day, and the Badgers are coming off an ugly blowout loss to Ohio State in the Big-10 Championship Game. Wisconsin's head coach has since moved on, and star RB Melvin Gordon has declared his intention to enter the NFL Draft.
I can't see the Badgers getting up for this game, and I don't think their preparation for the Outback Bowl has been taken all that seriously.
Wisconsin's QB Joel Stave really struggled against OSU, completing just 39% of his passes for 187 yards with no TDs and three INTs.
Auburn's offense was firing on all cylinders against Alabama, but they blew a lead and went on to lose 55-44. I don't think the Badgers offense can hurt them the way Alabama did, and if they play well offensively, the Badgers aren't going to be able to keep up.
Take AUB.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-31-14 |
Georgia Tech v. Mississippi State -6.5 | Top | 49-34 |
Loss | -110 | 155 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Mississippi State Bulldogs. The Yellow Jackets managed to win 10 games during the regular season, going all the way to the ACC Championship Game. Opponents were baffled by their triple option offense, but that was when they had just one week to prepare. The Bulldogs have had more than a month to study this offense, so they aren't likely going to be taken by surprise.
Georgia Tech on the other hand will have to try to contain Dak Prescott, and I don't think that all the practice in the world is going to make much difference against the Heisman candidate.
The Bulldogs were the #1 ranked team in the country for several weeks during the regular season, and when it was all said and done, their only two losses came on the road at Alabama and Ole Miss. Georgia Tech isn't anywhere near the caliber of those two teams, and I think we'll see the Yellow Jackets take a beating tonight.
Take MISST.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-31-14 |
Boise State v. Arizona -150 | Top | 38-30 |
Loss | -150 | 151 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona Wildcats.
The Wildcats ended their season on a sour note, getting shellacked by the Oregon Ducks in the Pac-12 Championship Game. This is the same Ducks team that they had upset in Oregon earlier in the season though, and they did well to win 10 games with such a tough schedule. Their only other loss came on the road at #22 ranked UCLA.
The Boise State Broncos played only one Top 25 team during the regular season, losing 35-17 to Ole Miss in their season opener. QB Grant Hedrick threw for 3,387 yards with 22 TDs and 13 INTs, but he saw a lot average defenses. He was picked off four times in the loss to Ole Miss.
Hedrick could struggle against an Arizona defense that boasts one of the countries top linebackers in Scooby Wright, who had 14 sacks during the regular season.
If the game turns into an offensive display, Arizona's QB Anu Solomon is more than capable of keeping up. He threw for 520 yards and five TDs in a win over Cal in September.
Take ARI.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-29-14 |
Texas +7 v. Arkansas | Top | 7-31 |
Loss | -115 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas Longhorns. The Arkansas Razorbacks will take on the Texas Longhorns in the Texas Bowl in Houston tonight. The Longhorns are a sizable dog here, and I don't think Arkansas deserves to be giving up so many points in at a neutral site against a Texas team with a very solid defense.
Arkansas lost it's regular season finale at Missouri, and QB Brandon Allen threw for just 133 yards on 13-of-30 passing in that game. The Tigers out-gained the Razorbacks 423-228, winning the game by a score of 21-14.
Arkansas strength is it's defense that ranked 17th nationally allowing an average 20.3 points per game. That defense is going to be shorthanded here in Texas, as two key players in the secondary have been suspended for violating team rules (CB Carroll Washington and S Rohan Gaines).
Texas played ranked opponents at neutral sites twice this season, losing both those game. Neither of those two games were decided by more than five points though, losing 20-17 to UCLA, and 31-26 versus Oklahoma.
A 48-10 home loss to #5 TCU in their season finale looks pretty ugly, but putting it in perspective, the Horned Frogs piled on 28 points in the fourth quarter. Arkansas doesn't have the offensive weapons to do that, and I expect this game to be a struggle for the Razorbacks.
Take TEX.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-29-14 |
West Virginia v. Texas A&M +2.5 | Top | 37-45 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Texas A&M Aggies.
The Aggies began their season on the road at South Carolina, and they were a double digit underdog in that game. They would win by a score of 52-28, and Kenny Hill threw for a record 511 yards and three TDs. After throwing for 2649 yards and 23 TDs in the first eight games of the season, Hill was benched for violating team rules.
Freshman Kyle Allen came in and threw for 764 yards and nine TDs in the final four games of the season. His best game came on the road at Auburn, throwing for 277 yards and four TDs in a 41-38 upset win over the Tigers.
I think facing the West Virginia Mountaineers in a bowl game is a great match-up for Allen and the Aggies. This looks like it should be an offensive slugfest, with both team airing out early and often.
WVU QB Clint Trickett had a phenomenal year, but he's retired from football after suffering five concussions over the last 14 months. Backup Skyler Howard played well in the final two games of the season, but the chemistry within the offense is likely not going to be the same.
Both teams finished with a 7-5 record, but all of the Aggies losses came against SEC powerhouse teams. West Virginia simply isn't cut from the same cloth as the likes of LSU, Alabama, Mississippi State and Ole Miss.
Take A&M.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-28-14 |
Cincinnati Bengals v. Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | Top | 17-27 |
Win | 100 | 89 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Bengals finally won in prime time, upsetting the Broncos on Monday Night Football last week. Now they play the Steelers on Sunday night on short rest in their final game of the regular season.
While beating the Broncos is an impressive result, it's important to put that game into perspective. They got plenty of help with Peyton Manning throwing four picks, helping them make up for the fact that Denver had more total yards (385-353).
Andy Dalton certainly didn't impress, throwing for 146 yards with two TDs and an INT on 17-of-26 passing. It was Jeremy Hill and the Cincy running game that was responsible for most of the offense, but playing on the road on short rest against a Steelers team that has been very tough against the run isn't going to be easy.
Ben Roethlisberger for 350 yards and three TDs in a 42-21 win at Cincy a few weeks ago, and there is every reason to expect him to deliver a repeat performance here at home in a must win game.
Take PIT.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-28-14 |
Carolina Panthers v. Atlanta Falcons -3.5 | Top | 34-3 |
Loss | -115 | 125 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons.
The Falcons are coming off a big win on the road at New Orleans, and they can clinch the NFC South with a win at home over Carolina on Sunday. The defense has really tightened up, and last week against the Saints they allowed just 57 rushing yards, and picked off Drew Brees twice.
The Panthers are coming off back to back home wins over Tampa and Cleveland. Both those games were close, and Carolina didn't really impress offensively against inferior opposition. Cam Newton threw for 292 yards in a home loss to the Falcons earlier this season, but he was also picked off twice in that game.
It's likely going to be difficult for the Panthers to keep up with Matt Ryan and Julio Jones, who have been lighting up the opposition all year long. Ryan threw for 322 yards on 30-of-40 passing in the win over the Saints, and he's thrown for more than 300 yards in four straight.
At home in the dome, the Falcons are still a very tough team to beat, especially when Julio Jones is healthy. Remember they beat the Bucs 56-14 here in Week 2, and I wouldn't be surprised if this is another blowout home win for Atlanta.
Take ATL.
GL, Jesse Schule |
12-28-14 |
Detroit Lions v. Green Bay Packers -7 | Top | 20-30 |
Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
This is a Free #NFL play on the Green Bay #Packers.
It's winner takes all in the NFC North when the Packers host the Lions at Lambeau on Sunday. The Lions come in riding a four game winning streak, although they've failed to score more than 20 points in their last two. That's not going to cut it here in Green Bay, as the Packers have scored an average of 41 points while winning all seven of their home games this season.
Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 36 TDs and just five INTs this season, and 23 of those touchdown passes have come in his seven home games. He hasn't thrown an interception at home since the 2012 season.
Lions QB Matthew Stafford has trended the other way on the road, with a rating of 78.9, and no touchdowns and four INTs in his last three starts outside the dome in Detroit.
Detroit will be without starting center Dominic Raiola, who serves a suspension for stomping on Bears defensive tackle Ego Ferguson. Stafford was sacked four times last week in Chicago, and he could find himself running for his life with Clay Matthews in hot pursuit.
I like Green Bay to win big at home.
Take GB,
GL, Jesse Schule |
12-28-14 |
Philadelphia Eagles v. NY Giants -145 | Top | 34-26 |
Loss | -145 | 59 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the New York Giants.
The Giants are one of the hottest teams in the NFL, coming into this game riding a three game winning streak. They host division rivals Philly, looking to avenge a loss at Philadelphia earlier in the season.
A lot has changed since then though, as the Eagles are coming off three straight losses, and they have Mark Sanchez and not Nick Foles at QB. Sanchez has had his moments, but he's thrown more picks than TDs during this losing skid.
Philadelphia's defense has really struggled against the pass, and they will have to try to contain the league's most prolific wide receiver in Odell Beckham Jr. The rookie out of LSU has caught 31 passes for 421 yards and six TDs during the Giants three game winning streak.
It would only be natural to expect a let down after the Eagles were eliminated from the playoffs last week by the Redskins. It was a late mistake by Mark Sanchez that opened the door for the Redskins, and he's turned the ball over 14 times in his eight starts.
I expect the home team to win big here in this revenge spot.
Take NYG.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-28-14 |
San Diego Chargers v. Kansas City Chiefs -160 | Top | 7-19 |
Win | 100 | 59 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.
The San Diego Chargers will need to win on the road at Arrowhead in their final game of the season, if they are to have any hope of making the playoffs. We've seen the money coming in on the visitors since we learned that Chase Daniel will start at QB for the Chiefs.
This is a similar situation as we saw last year, with the Chargers playing at the Chiefs in a must win game in Week 17. It was Chase Daniel at QB in that game as well, but this time around it's a completely different situation for the Chiefs. While their hopes are slim, the Chiefs still need a win here to have any chance of sneaking into the post-season themselves.
They rested their starters in last year's game, and still the Chargers needed a late rally to win in overtime. Daniel threw for 200 yards and a TD on 21-of-30 passing, adding seven carries for 59 yards. Knile Davis got the nod instead of Jamaal Charles, and he ran for 81 yards and a pair of TDs.
Charles is expected to play this week, and he could put up big numbers against a Chargers defense that allowed Frank Gore to run for 158 yards last week.
Philip Rivers got rocked in the first half of that game, and the Chargers trailed by 21 points at the half. We saw Rivers pull out a miracle though, rallying to win in overtime. He's still suffering from a bulging disc that will require surgery, and I don't think we'll see another miracle against a Chiefs defense that ranks 2nd in the NFL against the pass.
Take KC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-27-14 |
Nebraska v. USC -6.5 | Top | 42-45 |
Loss | -107 | 272 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the USC Trojans.
Nebraska heads West to play the Trojans in San Diego in the Holiday Bowl this Saturday. The Cornhuskers will be without their head coach Bo Pelini, who was fired after the season. This is a team that won nine games in the Big-10, but they played just three ranked teams, losing all three of those games.
A loss to Wisconsin in mid November exposed just how vulnerable this defense is when matched up against elite talent. Melvin Gordon ran for a record setting 408 yards and four TDs on 25 carries, and the Badgers won by a score of 59-24.
The Trojans finished with a record of 8-4, however they had a far more challenging schedule. Three of their four losses came against ranked opponents, but they also recorded a pair of road wins against Top 25 teams. They upset Stanford at The Farm, and beat the Wildcats in Arizona.
The Trojans wrapped up the regular season with an impressive blowout win over Notre Dame, and QB Cody Kessler threw for 372 yards and six TDs in that game. Nebraska is unlikely to fare much better than the Irish here in the Holiday Bowl.
Take USC.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-27-14 |
Duke v. Arizona State -7 | Top | 31-36 |
Loss | -108 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Arizona State Sun Devils.
The Duke Blue Devils finished the regular season with nine wins, but most of those came against inferior teams in the ACC. They lost two of their last three games, with home losses to Virginia Tech and North Carolina. I think the Blue Devils are likely to be over-matched when they meet the Sun Devils in the Sun Bowl on Saturday.
Arizona State also finished with a record of 9-3, but four of those wins came against ranked opponents. They beat Notre Dame and Stanford by double digits.
Duke's defense is likely to struggled to contain D.J. Foster, who ran for 1002 yards during the season. Foster ran for 120 yards on 21 carries in a win over Notre Dame on November 8th, but failed to reach the century mark in his final three games. He's well rested ahead of this game though, and Duke's defense has had trouble stopping the run.
Duke hasn't won a bowl game since 1961, and hasn't defeated a non conference Top 25 team since beating Stanford in 1971. I don't think either of those streaks are going to end here today.
Take ASU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-26-14 |
North Carolina State v. Central Florida -130 | Top | 34-27 |
Loss | -130 | 107 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UCF Knights. It was never going to be easy to replace Blake Bortles, and naturally the Knights struggled early on this season. After losing their first two games, Central Florida went on to win nine of 10, and closed out the regular season on a four game winning streak. Sophomore QB Justin Holman threw for 274 yards and a TD in a 32-30 upset win at East Carolina in the final game of the season.
This team's strength is in it's defense though, a unit that ranked 8th overall nationally allowing just 17.9 points per game. They are particularly strong against the run, holding the opposition to an average of 97.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks fifth in the country. They held East Carolina and South Florida to a combined 19 yards on the ground in their last two games.
The Knights will play N.C. State in the St. Petersburg Bowl, and the Wolfpack have been piling up the yardage with their running game of late. They ran for more than 300 yards in each of their last two games, wins over Wake Forest and North Carolina. I don't think they'll find it so easy here in Florida tonight.
The Wolfpack were one of the worst defensive teams in the ACC, and I don't like their chances of out-scoring the Knights here in Florida.
Take UCF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-23-14 |
Northern Illinois +10 v. Marshall | Top | 23-52 |
Loss | -106 | 42 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Northern Illinois Huskies.
For most of this season people have been asking just how good is this Marshall team that was undefeated through it's first 11 games. The answer in my mind came when they lost to Western Kentucky in overtime in their 12th game of the season. They followed that up with another lackluster showing in the C-USA Championship Game, trailing LA Tech 26-13 heading into the fourth quarter, but scoring the game winning TD in the final two minutes.
They face an accomplished Northern Illinois Huskies team, that won it's final seven games of the season, including a 51-17 thrashing of Bowling Green in the MAC Championship Game. NIU RB Cameron Stingily has been a big part of their success, and he ran for 116 yards and a pair of TDs in the win over the Falcons.
Stingily is likely to find a ton of running room against a very soft Marshall defense. The Thundering Herd have allowed an average of 207.7 rushing yards in their last three games. QB Drew Hare also poses a threat with his legs, and he's picked up 615 yards with six rushing TDs during the season. He's also been good at protecting the football, with 17 TDs and just two picks.
An injury to RB Devon Johnson threatens to hurt Marshall's chances, he's been limited to just seven carries in his last two starts. He's still rumored to be bothered by various ailments, but will try to play against the Huskies.
Take NIU. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-22-14 |
Denver Broncos -3.5 v. Cincinnati Bengals | Top | 28-37 |
Loss | -105 | 21 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the Denver Broncos.
The Broncos come into Cincy tonight looking for a fifth consecutive win, and I like their chances against a pretty average Bengals team. Peyton Manning has played pretty poorly in his last three games, battling lingering injuries and illness. Still Denver has leaned on it's defense and running game in wins over Kansas City, Buffalo and San Diego.
I wouldn't count on Manning stinking it up again here this week, as he's had time to rest up and prepare for a Bengals defense that isn't nearly as tough as the three previous opponents that he struggled against.
If I were a Bengals fan, I'd be pretty concerned about Andy Dalton going up against this Denver defense. Dalton only threw for 117 yards on 14-of-24 passing in last week's win over Cleveland, and he's been picked off five times in his last four starts. Denver has a ferocious pass rush and some ball hawks in the secondary, and I expect to see them terrorize the Bengals QB tonight.
Cincy has been very successful running the ball lately, but Denver owns the league's #2 run defense, allowing an average of just 71.6 rushing yards per game. You add it all up, and it doesn't look pretty for the home team.
Take DEN.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-22-14 |
BYU +2 v. Memphis | Top | 48-55 |
Loss | -109 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the BYU Cougars.
The Cougars were in the discussion as a potential long shot playoff contender after winning their first four games. They lost QB Taysom Hill to a broken leg in their fifth game of the season, and that started a downward spiral that saw them lose their next four games. Backup Christian Stewart found his stride in the final month of the season, and he would lead the Cougars to four straight wins in their final four games.
Stewart threw 14 touchdown passes and just one interception in those games, and his best game might have been on the road at Cal. He threw for 433 yards and five TDs, eliminating the Bears from bowl eligibility.
Memphis gets a lot of respect for it's 5th ranked defense that allowed only 17.1 points per game during the regular season, but they had a pretty soft schedule. They closed out the season on a six game winning streak, but not one of those opposing teams had a winning record.
One of their three losses came against the Houston Cougars, a team that BYU was able to defeat by a score of 33-25 in Provo. I like what I saw from the Cougars at the end of the season, and I think Memphis is just a bit overrated.
Take BYU.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-21-14 |
Seattle Seahawks -8 v. Arizona Cardinals | Top | 35-6 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks defense is back! The Legion of Boom has terrorized the opposition over the last four weeks, surrendering just 27 total points. It all started with a 19-3 win over the Cardinals on November 23. Arizona has home field advantage this time around, but they also need to rely on their third string quarterback. Ryan Lindley was 4-of-10 for 30 yards in relief of Drew Stanton last week, and he's never thrown at TD pass in the NFL. He's also thrown seven interceptions in his four career starts. In situations like this, normally a team would lean on the running game in an attempt to take some pressure off an inexperienced QB. That's an unlikely solution for the Cardinals, who rank near the bottom in the NFL in rushing yards. Seattle boasts one of the league's top run defenses, allowing just 88.1 rushing yards per game. The Cardinals only managed 64 yards on 20 carries in the loss at Seattle, but 23 of those were courtesy of the injured Drew Stanton. Richard Sherman has six interceptions in his last six meetings with Arizona, and it wouldn't be a surprise if he adds to that total tonight. Take SEA. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-21-14 |
NY Giants v. St. Louis Rams -4.5 | Top | 37-27 |
Loss | -105 | 136 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the St. Louis Rams.
The Rams were red hot heading into last Thursday's home game against Arizona, but they fell by a score of 12-6 to the 11-3 Cardinals. They've since had 10 days to recover, and prepare a game plan for a home meeting with the Giants this Sunday.
The St. Louis defense has been nothing short of dominant during the second half of the season, and that was the case again last week against the Cardinals. They knocked Arizona QB Drew Stanton out for the rest of the season with a knee injury, and their ferocious pass rush should cause all sorts of problems for Eli Manning today.
The Giants have big problems defending the run, allowing over 135 yards rushing per game. New York is coming off consecutive victories, but those wins came against two of the worst teams in the league (Washington and Tennessee). The Rams boast an elite defense, and this game is a whole different kettle of fish.
This Giants team is 2-5 on the road, and four of those five losses came in games decided by double digits.
Take STL.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-21-14 |
Detroit Lions -4.5 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 20-14 |
Win | 100 | 134 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Detroit Lions. The Lions are in a dog fight with Green Bay for first place in the NFC North, and they aren't going to pull any punches in Chicago against a Bears team that has lost three straight by double digits. The Bears have decided to bench Jay Cutler, but throwing an inexperienced Jimmy Clausen into the fire against one of the league's top defenses might not help matters. The Lions rank 1st overall against the run, allowing opponents to average just 63.8 yards per game on the ground. They also have a ferocious pass rush, with 39 sacks (6th in the NFL). Forget about all Chicago's injuries, their terrible defensive numbers and the fact that they lost to the Lions 34-17 just a few weeks ago. The Bears biggest problem is the fact that the players and the coaching staff are not on the same page. Head coach Marc Trestman has lost the support of his players, as well as his assistants, and it looks as if several players have given up, and are just going through the motions. There doesn't appear to be any fight left in this Bears team, and I expect to see another blowout in Chicago. Take DET. GL, Jesse Schule |
12-21-14 |
Minnesota Vikings +7.5 v. Miami Dolphins | Top | 35-37 |
Win | 100 | 99 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Minnesota Vikings. The 7-7 Dolphins will host the 6-8 Vikings this Sunday, and the Fish are a big favorite at home. Miami is coming off consecutive losses, and it's home record of 3-3 isn't all that impressive. The Vikings went into Detroit last week and came very close to pulling off the upset in a 16-14 loss to the Lions. In fact the Vikes are 4-4 in their last eight games, and three of those four losses have come in games decided by three points or less.
Teddy Bridgewater has been getting better as the season progresses, and he's put together a very impressive rookie campaign. He's completed better than 70% of his pass attempts for 762 yards and five TDs over his last three starts. Ryan Tannehill has thrown more picks (3) than he has TDs (2) over his last three starts.
Miami might struggle offensively against a Minnesota defense that held Detroit to a season low 233 yards last Sunday. The Dolphins have averaged just 14 points over their last three games, and I don't think they should be asked to cover a big spread here against a pretty decent Minnesota team.
Take MINNY.
GL, Jesse Schule |
12-20-14 |
San Diego Chargers v. San Francisco 49ers -120 | Top | 38-35 |
Loss | -120 | 82 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Francisco 49ers.
The Niners have been eliminated from the playoffs, and head coach Jim Harbaugh appears to be on his way out of town. The Chargers are still in the hunt for the post-season, but I don't think that means they can stroll into San Francisco and pick up an easy win this Saturday. The Niners have showed a lot of character despite losing three straight, and they gave the defending champions quite a battle in Seattle last week.
The Chargers are coming off back to back losses, and Philip Rivers has struggled while playing hurt. He isn't likely to much help from his running game, especially with Ryan Matthews sidelined by injury. San Diego has really struggled to get anything going on the ground, ranking 31st in the NFL in rushing, averaging 82.6 yards per game.
Some might say that San Francisco has nothing to play for, but I would say that they have nothing to lose. "Regardless of the situation, we're going out to win," Kaepernick said. "There's no one on this team that's going to step on that field and say, 'Hey, our season is over. We're not going out to compete.' We're going to compete until the end."
Take SF.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-20-14 |
Utah -157 v. Colorado State | Top | 45-10 |
Win | 100 | 99 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the Utah Utes.
The Utes will play the Colorado State Rams in the Las Vegas Bowl on Saturday, and this game will feature one of the great defensive teams from the Pac-12 against an offensive juggernaut from the Mountain West. Utah's 8-4 record includes wins over #8 UCLA, #20 USC, and last year's Pac-12 champions Stanford.
The Rams didn't face any ranked teams this year, and they've lost 15 straight against Top 25 teams. Their QB put up big numbers, but you have to consider the teams he was up against. Utah's defense is going to be by far the best he's seen, with DE Nate Orchard who's 17.5 sacks were the most in the country (per 12 games).
RB Devontae Booker could have a monster game against a Rams defense that allowed an average of 187.6 rushing yards per game. That was against inferior teams in their weak conference. Trying to stop a guy who ran for 140+ against both Arizona and Arizona State, well that's a tough ask. Booker could easily go for 200 yards in this game.
Take UTAH.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-18-14 |
Tennessee Titans v. Jacksonville Jaguars -150 | Top | 13-21 |
Win | 100 | 69 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
It's fair to say that both the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars are in a "rebuilding" stage. With a potential #1 pick in the draft possibly on the line for both teams, many would question how motivated these teams will be to win this game. The Jags have been here before though, and at this point I think a win at home would do a lot more for this franchise that another high draft pick.
If you watched the Jags play in Baltimore last week, it would be pretty hard to accuse them of tanking. They gave the Ravens all that they could handle, and actually held a lead in that game until midway through the third quarter.
The Titans will have third string QB Charlie Whitehurst under center again this week, and he failed to impress last week. The 32 year old threw for 203 yards on 10-of-24 passing in the 16-11 loss to the Jets.
Tennessee is just 1-6-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams, and I don't think we'll see much of a spirited effort from the Titans here in Jacksonville tonight.
Take JAC.
GL, Jesse Schule |
12-15-14 |
New Orleans Saints v. Chicago Bears OVER 53.5 | Top | 31-15 |
Loss | -115 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on NO@CHI to go OVER the total.
The New Orleans Saints have not been able to find any consistency, and just a week after upsetting the Steelers in Pittsburgh, they lost at home to Carolina by a score of 41-10. The good news for the Saints is, they are playing a Chicago team that has been consistently terrible, and the playoffs are still within reach.
The Bears are coming off a 41-28 loss to the Cowboys, and only the Atlanta Falcons rank worse in pass defense. Drew Brees will try to cut into a Bears secondary that has allowed an average of 265.5 yards passing per game. The Saints defense ranks just ahead of Chicago allowing 265.2 yards passing per game, but New Orleans has been even worse against the run.
These teams have seen the total go over in five of the last six meetings in Chicago, and the Saints have been a good bet to go over all year, with 10 of their 13 games going over the number.
Take OVER.
GL,
Jesse Schule |
12-15-14 |
New Orleans Saints -164 v. Chicago Bears | Top | 31-15 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 5* play on the New Orleans Saints.
The New Orleans Saints have not been able to find any consistency, and just a week after upsetting the Steelers in Pittsburgh, they lost at home to Carolina by a score of 41-10. The good news for the Saints is, they are playing a Chicago team that has been consistently terrible, and the playoffs are still within reach.
The Bears are coming off a 41-28 loss to the Cowboys, and only the Atlanta Falcons rank worse in pass defense. Drew Brees will try to cut into a Bears secondary that has allowed an average of 265.5 yards passing per game. Chicago's defense has been decimated by injuries, and kicker Robbie Gould is also questionable to play tonight.
It's wideout Brandon Marshall that they are likely to miss the most though, leaving Jay Cutler without his preferred target. Cutler is losing the support of his teammates and coaches, and this Chicago team is complete mess. Watching them play in recent weeks it seems quite obvious that they have already thrown in the towel.
Take NO. GL,
Jesse Schule |