Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-23-21 | BYU -4 v. Washington State | Top | 21-19 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on BYU at 3:30 ET. BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and opened 5-0 in 2021, including notable wins 26-17 over then-No. 21 Utah (ending a 9-game losing streak in "The Holy War") and 27-17 over then-No. 21 Arizona St. However, the Cougars come to Pullman off back-to-back losses, 26-17 at home to Boise St and 38-24 at Baylor. Washington St played just four games in 2020's COVID season, winning its opener and then going 0-3 SU and ATS, while allowing 42.0 PPG. It was Nick Rolovich's first season at Washington St, after he led his alma mater (Hawaii) to a 28-27 record in four years but with three Hawaii Bowl berths (2-1). Rolovich is a former QB, well-liked and the Cougars expected him to revive the program. Wash St opened just 1-3 but then beat Cal (21-16), Oregon St (31-24) and Stanford (34-31) to reach 4-3 (is on a 4-0 ATS streak0. However, as all have to know by now, he was dismissed from his head coaching position, along with four assistants (more later). Washington St QB deLaura has completed 62.6% for 1,476 yards with 15 TDs and 5 INTs. He also has some 'sweet' WRs in Harris (44 catches / 5 TDs), Jackson (37 catches / 4 TDs) and Stribling (24 catches / 4 TDs). However, the Washington St running game averages just 111.7 YPG (114th) on 3.7 YPC with the lone notable contributor being Borghi (421 yards on 5.1 YPC / 5 TDs). The Cougars are scoring 25.7 PPG and allowing 25.7 PPG. | |||||||
10-23-21 | Clemson +3.5 v. Pittsburgh | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 57 m | Show | |
The first play of my STP is an 8* on Clemson at 3:30 ET. Clemson began the season ranked No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll but opened with a 10-3 loss to then-No. 5 Georgia. The way the Bulldogs have played here in 2021 (now a unanimous No. 1), that loss is nothing to be ashamed of. However, when the Tigers visit Pittsburgh for the first time in program history on Saturday, Clemson will come in 4-2 and unranked, while the Panthers are 5-1 and ranked 23rd in the latest AP poll. The last time Pitt won 10 games was back in 2009, while Clemson came into the current season having won 10-plus games in every season since going 6-7 in 2010. | |||||||
10-23-21 | Kansas State +1 v. Texas Tech | Top | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Kansas St at 12:00 ET. Chris Kleiman led Kansas St to an 8-5 season in his first year at Kansas St but fell to 4-6 last year. Kansas St opened the 2021 season 3-0, including solid wins over Stanford 24-7 at a neutral site) and 38-17 at Nevada. However, the Wildcats have opened Big 12 play 0-3, allowing 101 points (33.7 PPG) , in losing to Oklahoma St, Oklahoma and Iowa St. Texas Tech began with a 38-21 over Houston (neutral site) and was 3-0 when it got pounded 70-35 by Texas. The Red Raiders rebounded with a 23-20 win at West Va but then lost 52-31 at home to TCU, before beating Big 12 'punching bag' Kansas, 41-14. Head coach Matt Wells is in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. The Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons but this year's team is 5-2. Wildcats QB Skylar Thompson is 44 of 64 for 526 yards with five touchdowns and one interception in two games since returning from a knee injury. For him to be effective, he needs balance and the running has shown promise (162.5 YPG ranks 69th), with RB Deuce Vaughn rushing for 543 rushing yards on 5.0 YPC and 5 TDs (he's also the team's leading receiver with 23 catches, adding two more TDs). The defense is allowing 24.7 PPG (60th) on 355.2 YPG (52nd), despite struggling against big 12 opponents. The Red Raiders average 168.6 YPG on the ground (63rd) with Thompson (314 yards on 5.0 YPC and 6 TDs) plus Brooks (284 yards on 8.1 YPC with 4 TDs). QB Tyler Shough averaged 218 passing yards per game before breaking his collarbone in the Sept 25 loss to Texas but backup Henry Colombi has stepped right in, averaging 264.5 YPG over the past four games. The Texas Tech defense is allowing 31.4 PPG (102nd) on 386.4 YPG (75th). Kansas St is on a three-game slide but note Oklahoma St and Oklahoma are both unbeaten, while Iowa St was ranked No. 7 in the preseason (pretty tough three-game stretch). For one, Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells is not buying the fact that Kansas State is struggling. "K-State has beat us (five) years in a row," Wells said. "They're tough; they're physical. I have a lot of respect for Chris Kleiman. I think Skylar Thompson is gritty and tough. He has a lot of moxie. Deuce Vaughn is one of the best in the country, and they've got some guys in the special teams that keep you up at night." Great situation for Kansas St to get back in the win column after a rough three-game stretch. Kansas St has gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS against Texas Tech since 2011. What changes here? Nothing. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-22-21 | Jazz v. Kings +6 | Top | 110-101 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Sac Kings at ET. The Utah Jazz compiled the best record in the league last season (52-20) but suffered the disappointment of a second-round playoff exit. As for the Sacramento Kings, they finished 31-41 last season, extending the team's almost unfathomable 15-year playoff drought (longest active in the NBA). The Jazz opened with a 107-86 home victory over the Oklahoma City Thunder (held the Thunder to just 37.4% shooting), while the Kings opened their season with an impressive 124-121 road win over the Portland Trail Blazers (both played on Wednesday). Naturally, the Jazz are a better team than the Kings (duh!) and series history points to Utah (Jazz have won 13 of the past 15 meetings) but I've got a feeling the Kings will be much more competitive in the 2021-22 season. Utah had six players in double digits against the Thunder, led by Bogdanovich's 22. Gobert had a double-double (16 & 21) but Mitchell (26.4 PPG last season) had a modest 16 on 6 of 17 shooting (including 3 of 10 on threes). The Kings' Harrison Barnes carried the Kings with career highs of 36 points and eight 3-pointers. PG De'Aaron Fox added 27 points and eight assists plus center Richaun Holmes had 21 points and 11 rebounds (Buddy Hield scored 17 points off the bench). Here's the rub. As noted above, the Jazz have won 13 of the last 15 against the Kings and that includes all three last season, with an average winning margin of 29 points. In fact, Utah set a franchise record for points when it demolished the Kings 154-105 in Sacramento on April 28. My bet? The Kings 'sneak up' on the Jazz, who could be forgiven for taking Sacramento lightly in only the second game of the season. Take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-22-21 | Spurs +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the SA Spurs at 9:05 ET. The San Antonio Spurs and the Denver Nuggets each opened the new season with wins. The Spurs destroyed the Magic 123-97 at home in their opener, while the Nuggets beat the Suns 110-98 in Phoenix, getting a measure of revenge after Suns swept the injury-depleted Nuggets in the second round of the playoffs last June. San Antonio lost the "play-in" game last year and finished as the 10th seed in the West with a 33-39 record. Life gets tougher for the Spurs tonight in Denver. The Spurs saw the departures of DeMar DeRozan (21.6-4.2-6.9), Rudy Gay (11.4 & 4.8) and Patty Mills (10.8) this past offseason, leaving a group of supporting players playing in a free-flowing offense. Dejounte Murray (15.7-7.1-5.4 in 2020-21) is now the "go-to" guy in San Antonio and with DeMar DeRozan gone, Derrick White (15.4 last season) is expected to take on a much bigger role this season for Greg Popovich. All five SA starters scored in double digits vs the Magic, while Vassell (19) and Walker (17) were the top-two scorers for the Spurs, coming off the bench. Denver is much healthier than it was at the end of last season but Jamal Murray is still rehabbing from his ACL tear suffered in April. Forward Aaron Gordon, who came over in a trade with the Magic in March, looks 100 percent and Will Barton has his legs back after struggling with knee and ankle injuries in the spring. Most significant is the health of reigning MVP Nikola Jokic. He is the key to the Nuggets' offense, which he showed in Wednesday's win by finishing with 27 points and 13 rebounds. Michael Porter Jr. signed an extension before the season and had 15 points plus Gordon, who also signed an extension, had 12 points and a huge block in the fourth quarter that helped the Nuggets keep the lead. Denver has the depth and talent to step up over the first half of the season until star guard Jamal Murray finally returns from injury. However, as noted above, Popovich has a roster of players to run his free-flowing offense. Case in point, SEVEN players scored in double digits vs Orlando. The Spurs got a 'breather' vs the Magic but now play their next three games against the Nuggets, Bucks and Lakers. San Antonio's depth could be the difference here (ATS), as Denver's reserves struggled in the preseason against Phoenix. Collectively the bench was a minus-52 but played better in the second half when Malone kept one or two starters in the game with reserves. The starters were a plus-112. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-22-21 | Red Sox -101 v. Astros | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Red Sox at 8:08 ET. Before I start, this is an "action" play on the Boston Red Sox, so no need to use listed pitchers! One more reminder before I go. This is an "action" play on the Boston Red Sox. Who knows if Garcia could be ruled out right before the first pitch? See you for Game 7 on Saturday. | |||||||
10-22-21 | Raptors +6.5 v. Celtics | Top | 115-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Raptors at 7:40 ET. The Toronto Raptors are coming off a 98-83 home loss to Washington, while Boston has to be feeling a little "gassed," after an opening 138-134 setback in two OTs at Madison Square Garden vs the Knicks, The Raptors struggled offensively in their first game (leading scorer Siakam recently returned to practice in a limited capacity after undergoing offseason surgery to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder) but the defense was good in holding the high-scoring Wizards to just 98 points. Fred VanVleet had 12 points, three rebounds, four assists, and two steals, while OG Anunoby had 11 points, 10 rebounds, and two steals. Toronto shot 30.9% overall, including 20.6% on threes. While Toronto's first game saw both teams score under 100 points, the Celtics and Knicks each topped 130 points, albeit in two overtimes. Jaylen Brown went off for a career-high 46 points in Wednesday's season opener at the New York Knicks (grabbed nine rebounds and dished out six assists) but fellow All Star Jayson Tatum struggled with 20 points on 7-of-30 shooting, making just TWO of 15 shots from long distance. Toronto had been one of the NBA's best teams for FIVE straight seasons, but dropped off last season in going just 27-45. Similarly, the Celtics made the Eastern Conference Finals in THREE of four seasons, before going just 36-36 and losing in the playoffs' first round last season. Head coaching 'savior' Brad Stevens is now in the front office and Friday's game will mark the regular season home debut for Celtics new head coach Ime Udoka. Toronto's Nick Nurse, NBA coach-of-the-year in the 2019-20 season, may just have a trick or two up his sleeve for Udoka. Take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-22-21 | Memphis v. Central Florida -1.5 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 82 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* AAC Game of the Year is on UCF at 7:00 ET. Ryan Silverfield was hired by Mike Norvell as an assistant at Memphis to begin the 2016 season. He was elevated to assistant head coach in 2019, and was named interim head coach when Norvell left to take the head coach position at Florida State. he promoted to head coach on December 13 and debuted in his first college game as head coach against Penn State in the 2019 Cotton Bowl Classic (lost 53-39). He led the Tigers to an 8-3 season in 2020 (first as a head coach), including a 25-10 win over FAU in the Montgomery Bowl, which marked Memphis' 7th straight bowl appearance. Gus Malzahn's team has been bombarded with injuries in the early going but this guy is a quality coach and I don't expect last week's 56-21 loss at now-No. 2 Cincinnati to keep this team down. QB Dillon Gabriel is sidelined by an injury and is missed but freshman Mikey Keene is capable. RBs Richardson (317 yards / 6.1 YPC / one TD) and Bowser (295 yards / 4.6 YPC / 6 TDs) lead a strong running game averaging 204.2 YPG (129th). Like Memphis, the UCF defense leaves much to be desired, allowing 32.2 PPG (107th0. I'm a fan of Malzahn. During his eight seasons at Auburn, he was 68-35, including THREE wins over Alabama plus made a trip to the 2013 national championship game where the Tigers lost 34-31 to FSU when the Seminoles scored with 13 seconds Neither team is going to beat you with its defense, but the Tigers' inconsistencies from one week to the next makes them untrustworthy here. What does matter is, series history and the home field advantage. UCF had won 13 straight over Memphis before losing 50-49 at Memphis in 2020. Methinks, UCF remembers. UCF was 21-0 SU at home from 2017-19, before going just 2-2 last season. Throw in UCF's 3-0 home record in 2021 and that's 26-2 SU at home since the start of the 2017 season. At this price, UCF is a HUGE play! | |||||||
10-21-21 | Clippers +4 v. Warriors | Top | 113-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* TNT game of the Month is on the LA Clippers at 10:00 ET. The Warriors looked great in beating the Lakers 121-114 in Los Angeles on Opening night. The Warriors return to the Bay Area tonight to host the LA Clippers, who will be the last team to take the court for the 2021-22 NBA season. Stephen Curry opened the season with a triple-double (21-10-10) and the Golden St bench outscored LA's 55 to 29, which would turn out to be the difference in the end. The Clippers, who finished EIGHT wins ahead of the Warriors last season. Of note, they will tip off their new campaign without two of their top players, Kawhi Leonard (24.8-6.5-5.2) and Serge Ibaka (11.1 & 6.7). Leonard is coming off an ACL surgery that could cost him the entire season, while Ibaka is being brought along slowly after back surgery. Clippers forward Paul George (23.3-6.6-5.2) was impressed that Golden State could take down the preseason Western Conference favorite on a night when star Stephen Curry shot just 5-for-21. "They move the ball. It's scary," George said. "Steph didn't shoot it well, and they still win." George was fantastic in last year's postseason after Kawhi went down and he's the clear leader this season. PG Jackson played excellently down the stretch and throughout the postseason and is joined in the backcourt by the newly acquired Eric Bledose (14.0-3.9-4.3 in his career). The Clippers also picked up Justice Winslow, who if healthy, is a talented player. The Clippers lost 14 of their last 15 games at Oracle Arena in Oakland but have won THREE of four since the Warriors moved into the Chase Center across the bay in San Francisco. In fact, the Clippers won the very first game played in this building two years ago, running away with a 141-122 victory. Ivica Zubac, who is expected to get the starting call tonight in Ibaka's place, recorded the first double-double in Chase Center history that night with 16 points and 10 rebounds. Golden State has a lot of young faces, and it's still playing without Klay Thompson as well. I see a SU win by the Clippers but will of course, take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-21-21 | Broncos +3.5 v. Browns | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 51 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* AFC Game of the Week is on the Den Broncos at 8:20 ET. The Denver Broncos surprised most by opening 3-0 but the team 'limps' into Cleveland Thursday night on a three-game slide, after a 34-24 home loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last Sunday. The Browns made the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and opened the season by almost beating the Chiefs in KC. The Browns led throughout but gave way in the 4th quarter. Cleveland responded with three straight wins but enters this contest off a 47-42 shootout loss in LA vs the Chargers and a humbling 37-14 to the now 6-0 Cardinals! | |||||||
10-21-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* NLCS Showdown is on the the LA Dodgers at 8:08 ET. The Braves fought through injuries all season, most notably losing Acuna (24 HRs in 82 games) for the entire season right before the All Star break and starter Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA in 2019), who hasn't pitched since early 2020 because of Achilles surgery. Atlanta captured its fourth straight NL East title in 2021 and then eliminated the Brewers 3-1 in the NLDS. Waiting for the Braves in the NLCS was the LA Dodgers, who saw their eight-year run of winning the NL West end when they fell ONE game short of the Giants. The Dodgers survived a 3-1 win over the Cards in the NL wild card game (2-run walk-off HR in the 9ath) and then overcame a 2-1 deficit against the Giants to win Games 4 and 5 to advance to the NLCS.
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10-21-21 | Hurricanes v. Canadiens +119 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* NHL Game of the Month is on the Mon Canadiens at 7:08 ET. Enough is ENOUGH as far as Canadiens fans are concerned after an 0-4 start! Yes, Montreal's star goaltender Carey Price is still sidelined with personal issues and won't be playing here, but I like the winless (0-4) home side to dig deep and to finally post a victory on Friday night. Carolina comes in riding high after a 2-0 start. It beat the Islanders 6-3 at home, and then it won 3-2 at Nashville. The Hurricane's Jordan Staal has two assists over the first two games, while goaltender Frederick Andersen is 2-0-0 with a 2.50 goals-against average and .926 save percentage. However, Carolina's last win came FIVE days ago! That's an eternity as far as momentum is concerned in sports like the NHL or NBA. The Canadiens made it all the way to the Stanley Cup Final last year, but they've struggled to find that same spark so far this season. That includes a 5-0 loss here to the Sharks two nights ago (note that the Canadiens are 8-2 in their last 10 after a shutout home loss off three or more goals.) It's interesting to note that this is the first time in 26 years that the Habs have started the season 0-4. Jonathan Drouin has scored two of Montreal's three goals this season. Jake Allen is 0-3-0 with a 3.05 goals-against average and .885 save percentage. An 0-3-0 record isn't good, but Allen hasn't been terrible at all. He's just received little support to this point. Carolina's extended break between games sets up for them to come out flat, especially against an 0-4 opponent. The panic button has absolutely been smashed in Montreal and I expect this now desperate team to respond. Look for the hungry Canadiens to finally earn their first victory of the season on Thursday night. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-21 | 76ers v. Pelicans +3.5 | Top | 117-97 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the NO Pelicans at 8:10 ET. The Philadelphia 76ers had the East's best record last season (49-23) but again flopped in the playoffs, As for the New Orleans Pelicans, they were a HUGE disappointment, finishing 31-41 (two games below the playoff 'cut line') despite the presence of 'King Zion.' The two teams opener their respective seasons tonight in New Orleans with BOTH playing without a marque player. Ben Simmons (14.3-7.2-6.9) took most of the blame for Philly's playoff loss to Atlanta but backed off his holdout and reported to Philadelphia for a mandatory COVID test Oct 11, then passed through the NBA protocols and returned to practice Sunday. However, Sixers head coach Doc Rivers suspended Simmons for one game because of "conduct detrimental to the team" on Tuesday. Moving back to New Orleans, forward Zion Williamson (27.0 & 7.2) remains out indefinitely as he works his way back from offseason foot surgery. "I just thought he was a distraction today," Rivers said Tuesday after practice. "I didn't think he wanted to do what everybody else was doing. It was early. It wasn't a big deal. I just told him he should leave. We went on with practice." The Sixers were the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference last season, but were knocked out of the playoffs at home when the Atlanta Hawks prevailed 103-96 in Game 7 of a conference semifinal series. Simmons averaged just 9.9 points in the series, made one-third of his free throws and passed up a layup down the stretch of the decisive game. He later demanded a trade. And the saga continues. However, Philadelphia is expected to be one of the top teams in the NBA again, with returning starters Joel Embiid (28.5 & 10.6), Seth Curry, Tobias Harris (19.5 & 6.8) and Danny Green. New Orleans' starting lineup also is uncertain as first-year coach Willie Green evaluates his roster and prepares to go without Williamson. "We've got a ton of guys who can play," Green said. "I have some decisions to make." The Pelicans fired Stan Van Gundy after the team finished 31-41 in his only season. In addition to the coaching change, the Pelicans overhauled their roster, trading Lonzo Ball, Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe and bringing in Jonas Valanciunas (Memphis), Devonte' Graham (Charlotte) and Tomas Satoransky and Garrett Temple (both Chicago). Ingram (23.8-4.9-4.9) has developed into an outstanding small forward and will be the "go-to guy" until Williamson returns. Josh Hart (9.0 & 8.2) is also a very UNDERVALUED contributor. Philly's been a terrific home team the last few seasons but has been vulnerable on the road. I believe Valanciunas (15.0 & 9.8 LY with Memphis) will make a big difference this season for the Pelicans plus Simmons' offseason contract dispute has been a huge distraction for the 76ers. I think they'll struggle with consistency to begin the season. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-21 | Rockets +6.5 v. Wolves | Top | 106-124 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Season Opener is on the Hou Rockets at 8:10 ET. Houston was a Western Conference-worst 17-55 last year, while Minnesota wasn't much better at 23-59. The Rockets initiated a full rebuild following the early-season trade of James Harden and will open the new season with an exciting, albeit overwhelmingly youthful, roster. As for the T-wolves, they missed the playoffs for a third consecutive season and posted a losing record for the 15th time in 16 years! Minnesota fired its lead basketball executive (Gersson Rosas) just prior to the start of training camp and head coach Chris Finch will enter his first full season on the bench trying to steer a long wayward ship on course (Finch is Houston' FIFTH coach in just seven years!). The Rockets had a great haul in the recent draft with SG Jalen Green (No. 2 overall pick bypassed college to play in last year's G-League) plus the 6-10 Alperen Sengun (Turkey), the 6-8 Usman Garuba (Spain), and guard Josh Christopher (ASU). 2nd-year head coach Stephen Silas needs to blend that youth with veterans like Wall, Gordon, Augustin and Theis. A real player to watch will be Christian Wood, who averaged 21.0 PPG and 9.6 RPG in 41 games before getting hurt. The good news? Wood comes into this season with a clean bill of health. Karl-Anthony Towns is a force to be reckoned with, coming off a season in which averaged 24.9 PPG and 10.6 RPG. SG Edwards (19.3 & 4.9) and PG Russell (19.0 & 5.8 APG) are both quality players. Minnesota didn't have a lot of room under its current salary structure to do much in the offseason but the potential for growth might come defensively (Minnesota allowed 117.3 PPG last season). Offseason additions of Patrick Beverley and Taurean Prince to Jaden McDaniels, Josh Okogie and Jarred Vanderbilt could help elevate Minnesota in the defensive rankings. Taking it all in, I see this game as a coin flip and in a scenario like that, I'm going to grab the points. Excluding only the Sacramento Kings, the Timberwolves have become the NBA's picture of dysfunction and discord. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-21 | Cavs +7.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 121-132 | Loss | -103 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Non-Conference Game of the Week is on the Cle Cavaliers at 7:05 ET. LBJ 'flew the coop' for a second time in Cleveland, after the 2017-198 season. The Cavs have gone 19-63, 19-46 and 22-50 in the three years since. However, "The Evan Mobley Era" in Cleveland Cavaliers history tips off Wednesday night when the Cavs visit the Grizzlies in Memphis. The 6-11 Mobley had a five-star high school career and then burst onto the national scene by leading USC into the NCAA Tournament Elite Eight last March (averaged 16.4 PPG on 57.8% shooting while grabbing 8.7 RPG ). Memphis finished last season 38-34 (42-30 ATS record was among the best in the NBA) and ended a three-year playoff drought (note: that drought was preceded by a seven-year postseason run!) Mobley was the third overall pick was kept under wraps most of the preseason, averaging just 25.5 minutes per game, but nonetheless still found time to lead the Cavaliers in rebounds (7.6) and blocks (1.6). Jarrett Allen (13.2 & 9.9) was retained on a long-term deal to serve as Mobley's 'bodyguard' plus the 6-11 Markkanen was acquired in a trade in August after having spent his first four seasons in Chicago, averaging 15.6 & & 7.1. Veteran PG Ricky Rubio (4th team, averaging 11.0 PPG and 7.6 APG in his career) has been imported to help inspire a young backcourt. That backcourt is led by Sexton (24.3 & 4.4) and Garland (17.4 & 6.1 APG). The Grizzlies' Jaren Jackson Jr. came into the league with much the same hype as Mobley when Memphis made him the No. 4 pick in 2018. The former Michigan State star has averaged 15.4 points in his first three seasons. Jackson missed the Grizzlies' first 56 games last year while rehabbing a knee injury suffered the previous season. He wound up taking the court just 16 times, the last two of which being arguably his best, when he averaged 18.0 points in losses to Utah in Games 4 and 5 of their first-round playoff series PG Ja Morant (19.1 & 7.4 APG) is terrific plus Dillon Brooks (17.2) and Kyle Anderson (12.4 & 5.7) are also back. A big change is the addition of center Steven Adams (just 7.6 & 8.9), who was swapped for Jonas Valanciunas (17.1 & 12.5) in a trade with the Pelicans, which I feel is a downgrade. Cleveland made some nice moves in the offseason and I expect it to compete on Opening Night. Yes, the Grizzlies still have their key pieces in place, but I think there'll be an adjustment period with Valanciunas out of the picture. Interestingly, the Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games played in this building. Take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-21 | Astros +118 v. Red Sox | Top | 9-2 | Win | 118 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET. The Astros were able to win Game 1 of the ALCS 5-4 but Houston pitching has been PULVERIZED the last two games, losing 9-5 and 12-3. Houston fell behind 8-0 by the second inning in Game 2 and then 9-0 by the third inning of Game 3, as the Red Sox became the first team ever with THREE grand slams in the same postseason series. J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers each hit one in the Red Sox's Game 2 win and then Kyle Schwarber's second-inning grand slam Monday punctuated Boston's six-run second inning. Boston has hit 20 HRs this postseason, with Kike Hernandez accounted for FIVE of them en route to posting a slugging percentage of 1.028. Truth be told, this is starting to feel like a "MUST-WIN" game for the Astros. Houston manager Dusty Baker told reporters on Sunday that he was considering four different pitchers to start Game 4 after a wrath of injuries left Houston's mound corps depleted. He chose Urquidy and that didn't go too well. Now in Game 4, it's veteran Zach Greinke. Greinke won a Cy Young while at KC back in 2011 plus became an elite pitcher with stops in Milwaukee, the Angels, the Dodgers ,the D'backs and now in Houston. The veteran right-hander has pitched only once this postseason, allowing two hits during a scoreless inning of relief in the Astros' 12-6 loss to the Chicago White Sox in Game 3 of the AL Division Series. The 37-year-old was shipped to the bullpen following a mediocre regular season in which he went 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA over 30 games (29 starts). Nick Pivetta goes for Boston. He entered the season with a 21-30 career record (94 appearances / 73 starts) with a 5.40 ERA. I guess one can say this was his best season, as he was 9-8 with a 4.53 ERA in 31 appearances (30 starts) in the regular season. Pivetta has pitched out of the bullpen twice during the Red Sox's postseason run. He tossed four scoreless innings and registered seven strikeouts to pick up the win in Boston's 6-4, 13-inning victory against the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 3 of the ALDS. However, this marks his first career playoff start. Will the Boston bats ever 'cool off?' One would think Greinke will be out to prove something here and I'm predicting the veteran will do just that. Note that his 3.45 road ERA was about 1 1/2-runs lower than his home ERA (4.87) and that his mound opponent is entering 'uncharted waters' with this playoff start. I'll add that Pivetta's home ERA in 2021 was 5.40, 1.65 runs higher than his away ERA of 3.75. Houston ties things up here with a "W" and it's the best two-of-three the rest of the way! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-21 | Braves v. Dodgers -170 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers at 5:08 ET. The Braves fought through injuries all season, most notably losing Acuna (24 HRs in 82 games) for the entire season right before the All Star break and starter Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.68 ERA in 2019), who hasn't pitched since early 2020 because of Achilles surgery. Atlanta captured its fourth straight NL East title in 2021 and then eliminated the Brewers 3-1 in the NLDS. Waiting for the Braves in the NLCS was the LA Dodgers, who saw their eight-year run of winning the NL West end when they fell ONE game short of the Giants. The Dodgers survived a 3-1 win over the Cards in the NL wild card game (2-run walk-off HR in the 9ath) and then overcame a 2-1 deficit against the Giants to win Games 4 and 5 to advance to the NLCS. The first two games of this series have been in Atlanta and the Braves have won 3-2 and 6-5, each in walk off fashion. As the series moves to Dodger Stadium, are the Braves in control of the National League Championship Series? Don't be too sure. One only has to look back to the 2020 NLCS in which the Braves led the Dodgers 3-1 (neutral-site series, played in Arlington, Texas) but saw the Dodgers rally by taking the final three games and then go on to capture their first World Series title since 1988. Then again, Atlanta got Austin Riley's game-ending RBI single in the ninth inning of Game 1 on Saturday and then topped that effort in Game 2 on Sunday: They rallied for two runs in the eighth inning off LA's 20-game-winner Julio Urias and then won it in the ninth on a RBI single off LA closer Kenley Jansen. The starting pitching matchup for Game 3 is Charlie Morton (14-6, 3.34 ERA in the regular season) and Walker Buehler (16-4, 2.47 ERA). Morton has made four regular-season starts against the Dodgers, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in 22 innings. That includes him going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA vs LA in 2021. He allowed four runs (two earned) in five innings during a 5-2 victory in June and then on Aug 31 game at Dodger Stadium, left with a 2-1 lead after six innings, only to have the home team get to the Braves' bullpen to win 3-2. Morton is 7-4 with a 3.44 ERA in 15 postseason appearances (14 starts). Buehler's 2.47 ERA was the third-best ERA in all of baseball (also owned a 0.97 WHIP and .199 BAA during the regular season). Buehler lasted 6.1 innings in Game 1 and allowed three ERs in a 4-0 loss. The Dodgers then brought Buehler back on short rest in Game 4 (down 2-1), for the first time in his career. He delivered 4.1 innings and allowed just one run. The Dodgers would win 7-2 and then beat the Giants 2-1 in Game 5. Buehler is 2-0 with a 2.79 ERA in three lifetime starts in the regular season against the Braves and has faced them three times in the playoffs. In last year's NLCS, he gave up just one run over two starts (11 innings / 0.82 ERA), with the Braves beating the Dodgers' bullpen 5-1 in Game 1 and Buehler pitching six shutout innings in a 3-1 victory in Game 3. LA pitchers owned MLB's lowest ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.10) during the regular season and LA won 106 games to Atlanta's 88. LA led all of MLB in run differential (plus-269 runs), while the Braves owned a differential of plus-134. The Dodgers ARE the better team. I haven't used this big of a favorite all season (average lay price on the year is about -112) but this IS the Dodgers' game to win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-18-21 | Bills v. Titans +6.5 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Magic play is on the Ten Titans at 8:15 ET. Buffalo went 13-3 last season and made the AFC championship game where they lost to KC. big things were expected in 2021 but the Bills fell apart in the 4th quarter of Week 1 in a 23-16 loss to Pittsburgh. However, the Bills have brushed aside that loss by winning FOUR in a row, going 4-0 ATS. The Bills lead the NFL with a scoring average at 34.4 PPG, while allowing a league-low 12.8 PPG. That gives them a NFL-best point differential of 21.6 PPG. Last Monday, the Bills avenged their AFC championship game loss at KC with a dominating 38-20 win over the Chiefs and now play a second straight primetime game looking to avenge a 42-16 loss at Tennessee in Week 5 of 2020. Tennessee opened the 2021 season by getting humbled at home 38-17 by Arizona, a loss that looked shocking at the time. Of course, now that Arizona is 6-0, he doesn't look so bad. The Titans have won THREE of four since Week 1 but the lone loss was a 'UGLY' one, falling 27-24 in OT to the Jets (New York's lone win of the 2021 season). The Bills defense has been dominant all season, ranking No. 1 in points allowed (12.8 PGG) and in total defense (251.8 YPG). QB Josh Allen developed into an elite QB in 2020 and hasn't let up this season, completing 62.3% for 1,370 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs (102.5 QB rating). He also has 188 yards rushing (5.4 YPC / 2 TDs), to contribute to a running game averaging 140.4 YPG (5th). Singletary (284 yards / 5.2 YPC) and Moss (184 yards / 4.0 YPC) are a solid RB duo. Buffalo's receiving depth is impressive, led by WRs Diggs (28 catches), the ageless Sanders (19 catches / 16.9 YPC / 4 TDs) and Beasley (26 catches), plus TE Knox (18 catches / 14.5 YPC / 5 TDs). Tennessee's Ryan Tannehill is no Allen but he's a quality QB, he enters completing 63.6% for 1,251 yards with six TDs and three INTs. The second-ranked rushing attack (167.8 YPG) is led by Henry, who has run for 640 yards on 4.5 YPC with seven TDs. The Titans' receiving corps pales in comparison to Buffalo's and the defense has allowed 26.0 PPG (24th) on 377.4 YPG (23rd). On paper, the Bills are clearly the better team but this is the NFL. The Bills are primed for a letdown in this difficult road venue, especially after smashing the Chiefs 38-20 in Kansas City in primetime last weekend. Let me add that the Bills also have their bye week next week, followed by a favorable home matchup against the Dolphins and road contests at Jacksonville and the Jets. QB Ryan Tannehill says the team's offense is trending in the right direction. The Titans are starting to heal up, especially some key players. Seven-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Julio Jones is practicing after missing two straight games with an injured hamstring and while A.J. Brown isn't yet at 100 percent, he played last week despite a hamstring problem. Of course, Henry is the key. He has already tied his career-long streak rushing for at least 100 yards in four straight games and another would tie Eddie George's string of five in 1998. Henry also has run for at least 50 yards in 30 straight games, the third-longest streak in the NFL since 1960, trailing only Priest Holmes (38 in 2001-03) and Chris Carson (31 in 1993-95). Tennessee owns a comfortable two-game lead in the pathetic AFC South and should have more than a little bit of confidence after last year's beatdown of Buffalo. Upset alert? Maybe but taking the points is the way to go. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-18-21 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | 3-12 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 14 m | Show | |
My ALCS 10* O/U Game of the Year is on Hou/Bos Under at 8:08 ET. J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers became the first pair of teammates in postseason history to hit grand slams in the same game, doing so in the first and second innings respectively of Boston's decisive 9-5 win in Game 2 on Saturday at Houston that tied the ALCS at one-all. The Red Sox will return home to Fenway Park with momentum on their side as they host the Astros for a pivotal Game 3 in their best-of-seven showdown on Monday night. The Astros fought back out of a 9-0 hole on Saturday to make it a four-run game after scoring three in the fourth and two in the ninth. Houston also scored five runs in its series-opening 5-4 win over Boston in Game 1 Friday. "We've got to try to figure it out," Houston manager Dusty Baker said. "We won the seventh, eighth and ninth, but those two innings in the beginning -- that's a tremendous mountain to climb." Houston Game 3 starter is Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.62 ERA over 20 regular starts / team was 14-6), who is set to make his postseason debut. Urquidy was in line to start Game 4 of the team's ALDS against the Chicago White Sox before it was rained out. He is 1-1 with a 2.81 ERA in eight appearances (four starts) in his postseason career. Rodriguez went winless in two playoff starts against Tampa Bay in the ALDS and is 0-1 with a 7.02 ERA in 10 career postseason games (three starts). However, after allowing two runs in the first inning of that Game 1 start at Tampa Bay (was removed after getting just two in the second inning), he gave a very solid effort in Boston's 6-5 series-clinching Game 4 win, pitching 5.1 innings at home, allowing only three hits and two ERs. Boston has seen the total go over the number in SIX of seven so far in the postseason, including in its first two games here against the Astros, losing 5-4 in Game 1 and then bouncing back with a 9-5 victory in Game 2. As for Houston, it has seen the total eclipse the posted number in FIVE of six in the playoffs, including in five straight. Each of these hard-hitting sides have played their fair share of "overs" to start the postseason but I think the value has now finally swung the other way. This is NOT a classic pitchers duel but I expect strong outings from each starter. Go UNDER! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-21 | Seahawks v. Steelers -5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Pit Steelers at 8:20 ET. Russell Wilson underwent surgery Oct 8 on his right middle finger because of an injury sustained the previous night in a 26-17 loss to the Los Angeles Rams. He had started all 165 games (regular season and playoffs) since arriving as a rookie in 2012 but suffered a ruptured tendon in what is often referred to as mallet finger and a fracture/dislocation of the joint at the top of the finger. Wilson is almost certain to miss the Sunday Night game at Pittsburgh, meaning Geno Smith will make his first start since 2017. Wilson was completing 72.0% with 10 TDs and a QB rating of 125.3. According to Pete Carroll, there's NOT much to worry about. "Everybody believes that (Smith is) going to come through and do a great job, just like he showed the other night," Carroll said. "So we need to support him and give him the help he needs by playing good ball around him and coaching real well around him and be really excited to see what the outcome is. I think there's a lot of things that change in a young guy's mind when he gets this opportunity, but (Smith has) been there a lot. It's just been awhile. ... He loves the fact that he's got this chance to help his team. That's why he's been here. He's been here for this opportunity when it does arise." OK, Pete. Smith has played in 42 NFL games, making 31 starts (teams are 12-19). He's completing just 57.9% (that's close to 72%, right) with a TD-to-INT ratio of 30/37 and a QB rating of 73.0 (just barely below 125.0, right?). Wilson has led Seattle to playoff appearances in EIGHT of his first nine years in the league but at 2-3, the Seahawks are in some trouble here in 2021, as Arizona (5-0) is the NFL's lone unbeaten and the Rams are 4-1, having already beaten Seattle (Rams also have given Tampa Bay its lone loss). RB Carson had run for 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDS but missed the previous game (neck injury). He has missed practice time this week, but Carroll said he was encouraged by Carson's progress. Have to give it to Pete, he's an optimist. WRs Lockett (15.6 YPC / 3 TDs and Metcalf (145.3 YPC / 5 TDs0 have each caught 25 passes but are they still "Lockett and Metcalf" without Wilson? Then there is the Seattle defense, which allows 145.2 YPG on the ground to rank 31st and 305.6 YPG through the air to rank 30th. Add it up and Seattle allows a league-high 450.8 YPG. The Steelers are also 2-3 as they welcome Seattle to Heinz Field and also find some tough competition in their own division. Baltimore is 4-1, while Cincinnati and Cleveland are both 3-2. The Steelers outscored the Bills 17-6 in the 4th quarter of their season-opening 23-16 win in Buffalo but then lost THREE in a row. Pittsburgh may have 'saved' its season with last week's 27-19 home win over Denver. Alabama rookie RB Harris had a "breakout game," running for 122 yards on 5.3 YPC with a TD. He's got 307 yards on the season and is the team's leading receiver with 28 receptions. Big Ben is still around (63.6%, averaging 259.0 YPG with 6 TDs and 4 INTs) but he's NOT the same player these days. He had three very good WRs but JuJu Smith-Schuster sustained a dislocated shoulder last Sunday and underwent season-ending surgery Wednesday. Claypool has 20 catches on 17.0 YPC plus Johnson has 25 catches with three TDs. The Pittsburgh D is no longer called "The Steel Curtain" but it is allowing 22.4 PPG, which ranks 10th. I see this as a fantastic opportunity for the Steelers to build off last week's 29-17 win over the Broncos. Pittsburgh will be able to "leave everything on the field" Sunday night, as it will go into its bye next weekend (followed by a very tough road game in Cleveland). A win here and Pittsburgh can reasonably think playoffs. A loss and I'm not so sure. I have found that sometimes a "common sense" approach to handicapping a game works best, and that's the case here for me with Seattle. No Wilson, BIG problem (sorry Geno!). Meanwhile, it's a great chance for Big Ben to "turn back the clock" against Seattle's sieve-like defense and keep his team in playoff contention (consideration, at least). I expect him to make the most of this opportunity and note that Seattle is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine road games and that's WITH Russell! Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-21 | Raiders v. Broncos OVER 43 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 63 h 50 m | Show |
My NFL 9* Featured Sunday O/U is on LV/Den Over at 4:25 ET. Las Vegas opened the season with three straight victories, beating the Ravens 33-27 in overtime, the Steelers 26-17 and the Dolphins 31-28 in overtime as well. However, the Raiders then lost a Monday Nighter 28-14 at the LA Chargers, before last week's 20-9 home loss to the Bears. The Raiders travel to Denver on Sunday to take on the Broncos, who have had a similar start to the season. The Broncos also won their first three games, beating the Giants 27-13, the Jaguars 23-13, and the Jets 26-0. However, Denver has struggled the last two weeks, falling 23-7 to the Ravens and 27-19 to the Steelers. Both teams are 3-2, ONE game behind the 4-1 Chargers and ONE game up on the Chiefs 9KC has won the AFC West FIVE straight years!). | |||||||
10-17-21 | Cardinals v. Browns -3 | Top | 37-14 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" 38-Club Play is on the Cle Browns at 4:05 ET. Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield won the 2017 Heisman Trophy as Oklahoma's QB and was then the No. 1 pick in the 2018 draft. The following season, Kyler Murray stepped in as Oklahoma's QB and won the 2018 Heisman and then became the 2019 NFL Draft's No.1 pick. The former No. 1 overall draft picks and college teammates square off for the second time in three years when the 5-0 Arizona Cardinals visit Cleveland to take on the 3-2 Browns on Sunday. Murray's been the key to Arizona's first 5-0 start since 1974 (team was located in St Louis back then), while Mayfield led the browns into the playoffs last season (ending a 17-year drought) and has helped position them as a division contender again in 2021 in the AFC North. | |||||||
10-17-21 | Chargers v. Ravens -2.5 | Top | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 75 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. A pair of 4-1 teams square off in Baltimore on Sunday, as the Chargers take on the Ravens. It's no surprise that the Ravens are 4-1 and atop the AFC Central but the Chargers leading the AFC West IS a surprise. MUCH has happened in the AFC West since last Sunday, as while the Chargers outscored the Browns 47-42 (to get to 4-1), the Broncos and Raiders each lost for the second straight week (both are now 3-2), plus the five-time defending AFC West champs (KC) were humbled 38-20 by the Bills, falling into last-place at 2-3. Then earlier this week, Jon Gruden resigned as head coach of the Raiders to join the 'Mel Gibson Club!' After just five games, Brandon Staley looks to be the best of all the first year head coaches in the NFL this season and is at least a HUGE upgrade from Anthony Lynn. QB Justin Herbert had a superb rookie season and has made the term 'sophomore jinx' irrelevant, completing 67.2% for 1,576 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He enters off back-to-back games in which he's thrown five TD passes without an interception. RB Austin Ekeler has developed into a terrific all-purpose player, rushing for 349 yards on 5.2 YPC with four TDs, while adding 23 catches for three more TDs. Herbert has a duo of excellent WRs in Williams (31 catches on 15.2 YC with 6 TDs) and Allen, who has a team-high 34 catches (he has caught 403 passes the last four seasons!). TE Cook is solid, with 17 receptions and a 12.4 YPC average. LA's defensive numbers don't look too bad on paper (23.2 PPG allowed ranks 12th on 371.8 YPG that ranks 189th) but I'm not sold. The Chargers D will have to try to slow down former MVP Lamar Jackson, who has completed 67.1% and thrown for almost as many yards as Herbert (1,519). He has an 8-3 TD/INT ratio plus adds a dimension no other QB can. He's run for 341 yards on 6.1 YPC with four TDs. Despite losing Dobbins and Edwards before the start of the season, Baltimore is still averaging 148.8 YPG (4th). TE Andrews leads the team with 29 catches (13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) and WR Brown has 28 (16.1 YPC and 5 TDs). Fellow WR Watkins (18 catches / 13.8 YPC / 2 TDs) did not practice on Wednesday, after leaving in the first half of Monday's game due to a thigh injury. The Baltimore D is not the dominant unit of years past but ranks 11th (not bad), allowing 23.4 PPG. and did not return. No doubt that the Chargers are greatly improved and that Brandon Staley looks like a quality NFL head coach but it's not exactly John Harbaugh's 'first rodeo.' The Ravens 'gave away' their Week 1 game at Las Vegas (lost in OT to the Raiders) but Baltimore has won four in a row since, including wins over AFC West teams the Chiefs and Broncos. While the Chargers were winning a 47-42 shootout with the Browns last Sunday, Jackson led the Ravens back from a 25-9 deficit against the Colts by directing two, 4th-quarter TD drives of 78 and 75 yards, converting BOTH two-point conversions. Jackson then led the Ravens on a 68-yard TD drive to win 31-25 in OT. I'm taking not only Jackson over Herbert but more importantly, Harbaugh over Staley. The Ravens are 20-6 SU at home under Jackson and at this price, a win VERY likely will earn a cover! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-21 | Chiefs v. Washington Football Team +7 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Was FB Team at 1:00 ET. The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West each of the last FIVE seasons but here in Week 6, find themselves 2-3 and in last-place in the division they've recently dominated. Both the Broncos and Raiders are 3-2, while the Chargers sit atop the division at 4-1. KC is off a humbling 38-20 home loss to the Bills last Sunday night and will visit Washington on Sunday. Washington won the NFC East last season with a 7-9 record but here in 2021, the team will need to do MUCH better than that to keep pace with the Cowboys, who are 4-1 and their ATS record of 5-0 seems to prove this year's Dallas team is no fluke. | |||||||
10-16-21 | UCLA v. Washington -1.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Pac 12 Game of the Week is on Washington at 8:30 ET. Chip Kelly was a coaching 'genius' at Oregon from 2009-12, going 46-7 and finishing 3, 4 and 2 in the AP's final poll his last three seasons. He then moved on to conquer the NFL but in three seasons with the Eagles and one with the 49ers, went 28-35 (move over Bill Belichick). He was then hired at UCLA and went 3-9, 4-8 and 3-4 from 2018-20. UCLA opened with a 44-10 win over Hawaii and kept the momentum rolling in Week 2 with a 38-27 victory over then-No. 16 LSU. The Bruins then took a step back in a 40-37 loss to Fresno State, before beating Stanford 34-24 on road. UCLA then lost to Arizona State 42-23, before last week's 34-16 win over Arizona. | |||||||
10-16-21 | Colorado State v. New Mexico +11 | Top | 36-7 | Loss | -110 | 103 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* MWC "Best of the Best" is on New Mexico at 7:00 ET. Steve Addazio is in his second season at Fort Collins, after leading Boston College to six bowls in seven seasons. The problem. BC never won more than SEVEN games in any season! CSU played just four games last year (1-3) and began the 2021 season with two home losses (42-23 to South Dakota State and then 24-21 to Vanderbilt), before winning 22-6 at Toledo. CSU led No. 5 Iowa 14-7 at the half back on Sep 25 but scored zero points in the second half for a 24-14. Was that a 'good' loss? Maybe but the Rams had just 12 FDs and 250 yards. CSU doesn't need good losses, it needs wins. The Rams did take care of San Jose St rather easily 32-14, and will head to Albuquerque at 2-3 Saturday to take on the 2-4 Lobos. However, the days of Sonny Lubick, who led them to nine bowls in a 15-year span (from 1993-2007) seem like 50 years ago, not half that! | |||||||
10-16-21 | Toledo v. Central Michigan OVER 51.5 | Top | 23-26 | Loss | -112 | 96 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Featured Saturday O/U is on Toledo/Central Michigan Over at 3:30 ET Toledo and Central Michigan are both 3-3 (1-1 in the MAC), as both teams meet Saturday in Mount Pleasant hungry for a win. Toledo smashed Norfolk in its opener 49-10, but then it suffered back-to-back losses, falling 32-29 at Notre Dame (excellent effort) and then 22-6 to Colorado State. The Rockets then bounced-back with victories over Ball State and UMass, before last week's 22-20 loss to NIU (a 'killer,' as the Huskies kicked the game-winning FG with 26 seconds remaining). CMU lost 34-24 to Missouri in its opener, before hammering Robert Morris 45-0. The Chips then lost to LSU 49-21, beat FIU 31-27 and lost 28-7 to Miami Ohio. Last Saturday's 30-27 win over Ohio came with CMU scoring the game's final 10 points.
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10-16-21 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech +5 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Va Tech at 3:30 ET. 4-1 Pittsburgh will visit Blacksburg to take on 3-2 Va Tech on Saturday. The Coastal Division's representative in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game may come closer to being decided based on the outcome of this game. The Panthers and Hokies each enter with a 1-0 conference record and with FOUR of the other five teams in the division having at least two losses (the only one that doesn't is 0-1 Miami), the winner of Saturday's game will have the inside track toward an appearance in the conference title game. | |||||||
10-16-21 | Michigan State v. Indiana +5 | Top | 20-15 | Push | 0 | 76 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Indiana at 12:00 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 6-0 start, the Spartans are now one of FIVE Big Ten teams in the AP's top-10. Michigan St checks in at No. 10 but the question for some (me?) is, are the Spartans really a top-10 team? Michigan State has been one of the biggest surprises in the Big Ten season, as the Spartans were picked to finish as low as last in the Big Ten East in some national publications. Meanwhile, the Indiana Hoosiers are one of the Big Ten's most disappointing teams. Tom Allen made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2007 and 2018, he led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana QB Michael Penix Jr was back healthy for the opening of the 2021 season, after missing the Hoosiers' last two games of 2020 because of a torn ACL in his right knee. He had 14 TDPs and just four INTs last season and let me point out that Indiana is 10-2 the last two seasons when Penix starts at QB and 4-5 when other QBs start. However, Indiana is just 2-3, including 0-2 in Big Ten in which the Hoosiers have yet to score a TD.
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10-16-21 | Rutgers v. Northwestern +2.5 | Top | 7-21 | Win | 100 | 6 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Northwestern at 12:00 ET. Rutgers and Northwestern have each failed to win a Big Ten game in 2021, as Rutgers visits Evanston for a game with Northwestern. Rutgers (3-3, 0-3 Big 10) currently sits at the bottom of the Big Ten East, while Northwestern (2-3, 0-2) is last in the West Division. Rutgers opened with three non-conference wins but has then been outscored 103-39 in losses to now-No. 10 Michigan State, No. 6 Ohio State and No. 8 Michigan. Northwestern has won two of three non-conference games but was crushed in its season opener 38-21 at home by Michigan St and then on Oct 2, suffered a 56-7 loss at Nebraska (second-largest margin of defeat under coach Pat Fitzgerald). Northwestern has been outscored 94-28 in its two conference games. To add insult to injury last week vs Michigan St, leading receiver Bo Melton (24 catches / 2 TDs) did not play due to a shoulder injury, and Aron Cruickshank, whose 244 receiving yards are second on the team, exited in the second half with a shoulder injury. QB Vedral has completed 63.9% for 1,122 yards with six TDs and three INTs. He's also the team's second-leading rusher, with RB Pacheco checking in with 314 yards but a YPC average of only 3.8. Rutgers runs for 141.8YPG (85th) on 3.5 YPC. The defense is allowing 22.8 PPG (51) which is pretty good considering Rutgers has played THREE teams currently in the AP's top-10. Northwestern allowed 427 rushing yards and 28 first downs at Nebraska, so the defense will be glad to see a mediocre Rutgers rushing attack. QB Hunter Johnson has 424 passing yards, four touchdowns, and four interceptions, but has been replaced by Ryan Hlinski. He made a decent jump in his second start, as the South Carolina transfer completed 25 of 39 passes against Nebraska for 256 yards and his first touchdown this season. Hilinski had 88 yards in the win over Ohio the previous week. Northwestern's best offensive player of Evan Hull, who has run for 509 yards on 7.3 yPC with four TDs. Fitzgerald's teams have always been known for playing excellent defense but the 2021 team allows 27.2 PPG (80th) on 451.6 PPG (113th). Since joining the Big Ten in 2014, Rutgers has played in every stadium in the conference, except one. That ends Saturday when the Scarlet Knights visit Ryan Field. However, I believe Northwestern has some edges in this game, one being having had last weekend off after getting humbled in Lincoln. Northwestern was 4-0 SU at home last season and is 2-1 here in 2021 plus Fitzgerald is going to see some old friends (and get some much-needed support) when Northwestern honors the 1995 and 1996 Big Ten championship teams. The Wildcats' coach was a star linebacker back then. The 1995 team went on a fairytale run to the Rose Bowl and ended a string of 23 losing seasons. Any points are a bonus. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-15-21 | San Diego State v. San Jose State +9.5 | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 78 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on San Jose St at 10:30 ET. Brady Hoke coached SD State in 2009 and 2010, leading the Aztecs to a 9-4 season in 2010, including a Poinsettia Bowl win over Navy. He left for Michigan but after an 11-2 season in 2011, things fell apart quickly. He was fired after four seasons, going 6-10 in the Big Ten his last two seasons. He would wind up back at SD State as an assistant under Rocky Long and took over for Long when he retired after the 2019 season. Hoke's first season back was 2020's COVID season and the Aztecs went just 4-4, ending a run of 10 straight bowl appearances that had started with Hoke's 2010 team. SD State was expected to contend for the MWC title in 2021 but the team's 5-0 start (entered top-25 two weeks ag0) is somewhat of a surprise. The Aztecs will play on the road the next two weeks, at San Jose St this Friday and at Air Force on Oct 23. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC in 2020, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. SJSU opened the season with a 45-14 win over Southern Utah, but then fell 30-7 to USC in Week 2. The Spartans bounced back with a 17-13 victory over Hawaii, before falling 23-3 to Western Michigan. A 37-31 win over New Mexico State followed but last Saturday, the Spartans fell behind early at Colorado St and was never really in the game in a 32-14 loss. SD St is led offensively by a running game that averages 241.4 YPG (13th) on 5.3 YPC. Greg Bell has 520 yards rushing (5.5 YPC and five TDs). Both Brookshire (47.4% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) and Johnson (53.7% with 2 TDs and 1 INT) have played at QB. Neither has been effective, as SD St averages 128.8 YPG passing to rank 125th in the nation. The team's leading receiver (Bellinger) has seven catches, although he is averaging 23.3 YPC. Running the ball and a stout defense has been the key for SD State, with the Aztecs allowing 16.6 PPG (16th) on 270.4 YPG (6th). Spartans QB Starkel played very well in 2020 (17 TDs / 7 INTs) but has flopped in 2021 (50.4% with 6 TDs and 5 INTs). Sophomore Nick Nash replaced him against New Mexico St and helped lead the Spartans to the win, completing 15 of 18 for 193 yards with three TDs (0 INTs). He was just 11 of 22 for 154 yards vs CSU but did have two TD passes (one INT). He looks like the best choice now. RB Tyler Nevens ran for 515 yards on 7.8 YPC in eight games last season and has 406 on 5.5 YPC after six games in 2020. The San Jose St defense is allowing 23.8 PPG on 369.5 PPG (rank 63rd in each category). I believe that SD St is getting a little too much credit here and as noted above, has a 'testing' two-game stretch in which the Aztecs will have to be cautious to not get caught "looking ahead" to their game at Air Force next weekend (5-1 as of this writing). Sure SD State is the better defensive team but I will note that the Spartans did force CSU into settling for SIX field goals last weekend. This is just SD State's SECOND road game this season, winning 38-14 at Arizona. FYI...The Wildcats are 0-5 in 2021 and are currently on a 17-game losing streak! Maybe not a SU win but the TD or more in points sure looks 'juicy!' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-15-21 | Red Sox v. Astros -135 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* ALCS Opener is on the Hou Astros at 8:07 ET. It's Boston vs Houston in the ALCS. Ironically, Boston manager Alex Cora serves as "the tie that binds" the Red Sox and Astros. He was the Astros' bench coach for their World Series title-winning team in 2017 and the Red Sox's manager during their championship-winning season the following year. His involvement in the cheating scandal saw him suspended for the 2020 season. Houston manager AJ Hinch was fired at Houston and veteran Dusty Baker was brought in. Cora has won all EIGHT postseason series in which he's been involved, 3-0 as Houston's bench coach in 2017 and now 5-0 with Boston. Baker has had a long and storied managerial career (he ranks 12th in all-time wins) but he's the ONLY manager in that top-12, who has NEVER won a World Series title.
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10-14-21 | Dodgers v. Giants -104 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -104 | 35 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout-Part 4 is on the SF Giants at 9:07 ET. The San Francisco Giants set a franchise record with 107 wins in 2021, while the Dodgers tied their franchise-high with 106 wins. San Fran's one-game edge in the NL West not only snapped LA's eight-year run as division champs but also allowed the Giants to have the home field advantage in this NLCS matchup. By the way, the Dodgers and Giants are going head-to-head in the postseason for the first time in the 131-year history of their New York-born rivalry. This matchup only came about when the Dodgers' Chris Taylor hit a walk-off two-run HR last Wednesday in the bottom of the 9th to allow LA to edge the red-hot Cardinals, 3-1.
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10-14-21 | Bucs v. Eagles +7 | Top | 28-22 | Win | 100 | 37 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Game of the Week is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. Tom Brady led the Bucs to his SEVENTH and Tampa Bay's second Super Bowl title in the 2020 season. What's more, the Bucs returned all 22 starters from that team for the 2021 season. The 44-year-old QB is like the "Energizer Bunny," as he is still accomplishing new feats. Brady is fresh off a performance against the Miami Dolphins in which he passed for 411 yards and five TDs during a 45-17 victory. It marked the first time the 22-year veteran passed for 400 yards and five TDs in the same game. The 4-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 2-3 Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win against Atlanta in Week 1 but didn't win again until Week 5, when they won 21-18 in Carolina. | |||||||
10-12-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -154 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout-Part 3 is on the LA Dodgers at 9:07 ET. Starting in Brooklyn's Ebbets Field & Upper Manhattan's Polo Grounds before moving to "The City of Angels" & the "City by the Bay," the Dodgers/Giants rivalry ranks with the best in ANY sport. The San Francisco Giants set a franchise record with 107 wins in 2021, while the Dodgers tied their franchise-high with 106 wins. San Fran's one-game edge in the NL West not only snapped LA's eight-year run as division champs but also allowed the Giants to have the home field advantage in this NLCS matchup. By the way, the Dodgers and Giants go head-to-head in the postseason for the first time in the 131-year history of their New York-born rivalry. This matchup only came about when the Dodgers' Chris Taylor hit a walk-off two-run HR Wednesday in the bottom of the 9th to allow LA to edge the red-hot Cardinals, 3-1. The Giants drew 'first blood' with a 1-0 win in Game 1 (I had the Giants) but the Dodgers rebounded with a 9-2 win in Game 2. (I had the Dodgers). I sat out Game 3, as the Giants won a second game in the series by a 1-0 score and now the defending champs need to win Game 4 (at home) and Game 5 in San Francisco, to keep their chances of repeating alive! The Giants will send Anthony DeSclafani to the mound on Tuesday, while Tony Gonsolin (4-1, 3.23 ERA) was listed as the Dodgers' Game 4 starter but LA manager Dave Roberts said all options would be considered for this win-or-go-home contest. In the late afternoon, he switched to Walker Buehler, coming back on short rest. DeSclafani had a "career year" in 2021 for the Giants. He began the season (his 7th in MLB) with a 37-39 record and 4.29 ERA) but won 13 games (just seven losses) with a 3.17 ERA (a full run lower than his career ERA) and a 1.09 WHIP. The Giants went 21-10 in his starts, giving him a +$923 moneyline mark (7th-best). LA pitchers owned MLB's lowest ERA (3.01) and WHIP (1.10) during the regular season plus LA's bullpen has a 1.46 ERA in four playoff games! Buehler lasted 6.1 innings in Game 1 and allowed three ERs entered that contest with a 7-1 (2.49 ERA) career record over the Dodgers in 11 starts (LA is 8-3). Buehler was 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .199 BAA during the regular season. DeSclafani was 0-3 with a 7.33 ERA in six starts against the Dodgers in 2021. Note, SF did win all three of his no-decisions but his career record of 1-8 with a 5.84 ERA in 12 starts against LA hardly inspires confidence. Nor does the fact that this marks DeSclafani's first-ever postseason start. We are headed back to San Francisco for Game 5 on Thursday. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-21 | Brewers v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* O/U of the Week is on Mil/Atl Over at 5:15 ET. Full, detailed analysis Tuesday by 12 noon ET. | |||||||
10-11-21 | Brewers +100 v. Braves | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Game 3 Series Tie-Breaker is on the Mil Brewers at 1:07 ET. The Atlanta Braves fought through key injuries to offensive stars and starting pitchers to win their FOURTH consecutive NL East crown with a record of 88-73 (6 1/2-games clear of the Phillies). The Braves were in third place, 2 1/2 games under .500 on Aug 1 but Atlanta clinched the NL East with a sweep of second-place Philadelphia in the next-to-last series. Meanwhile, the Brewers clinched their FOURTH consecutive playoff berth on Sep 18, but went 4-10 the rest of the way. Three of those victories were in a Central-clinching home sweep of the Mets. 95-67 Milwaukee dropped FIVE of six in a season-ending road trip against the Cardinals and Dodgers to finish, weighing rest against momentum. | |||||||
10-10-21 | Bills v. Chiefs -2.5 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -120 | 129 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic (AFC Champ Game Rematch) is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. The 3-1 Buffalo Bills visit the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs for Sunday Night Football in what will be a rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game. Buffalo led 9-0 after the first quarter in that one but KC pulled away for a 38-24 win. The Bills stumbled in Week 1 at home vs the Steelers, getting outscored in the 4th quarter 16-7 in a loss. However, Buffalo won 35-0 (at Miami), then 43-10 and 40-0 in home games against Washington and Houston, respectively. As for the Chiefs, they trailed most of the way in Week 1 at home vs Cleveland, before winning 33-29. KC then lost 36-35 at Baltimore (SNF) and 30-24 at home to the Chargers. Last week's 42-30 win at Philly prevented Patrick Mahomes from losing a third straight game for the first in his career plus also ended an 0-10-1 ATS regular season losing run by the Chiefs!
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10-10-21 | Astros v. White Sox -115 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi White Sox at 8:07 ET. The Chicago White Sox broke an 11-year playoff drought in 2020 (35-25) and this season won the AL Central with a 93-69 record, giving the team its first division title since 2008. Chicago's opponent in this ALDS is the Houston Astros, the team everyone now loves to hate. Houston won 101, 103 and 107 games from 2017-19 but a sign-stealing scandal changed the way the team's accomplishments were viewed. The Astros snuck into the 2020 postseason at 29-31 but then made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, before losing to the Rays. The Astros are back in their FIFTH straight postseason, after going 95-67. This best of five series opened Thursday, with Houston winning handily, 6-1, a game I passed. However, I didn't miss out on Houston's 9-4 Game 2 win, which puts the team ONE win away from an ALDS sweep and a FIFTH straight berth in the ALCS. Houston will visit the Chicago White Sox on Sunday night for Game 3 of the teams' ALDS with a 2-0 lead, clicking on the mound and at the plate. Houston pitchers have allowed just five runs and all 18 hits given up have been SINGLES. The Astros have plated 15 runs, while batting .308, including .421 (8 of 19) with RISP. The two playoff wins makes Houston 6-0 in six games at Minute Maid Park in 2021, as the Astros have outscored the White Sox 42-13! However, as Chicago shortstop Tim Anderson said, "Ain't nothing like being at home!" The White Sox expect to be buoyed by a fan base awaiting the franchise's first home playoff game since 2008 but they also know they need more than singles to turn the series around. Luis Garcia (11-8, 3.30 ERA) takes the mound for Houston and Dylan Cease (13-7, 3.91 ERA) for Chicago. Looking a little closer at Garcia's numbers we find that in 15 home appearances (13 starts), he's got a 2.39 ERA, folding opponents to a .210 BAA. However in 15 road appearances (all starts), his ERA is 4.24 and opponents are batting .252. That should give Chicago batters some hope and let me note that the White Sox owned the AL's best home record (53-8) during 2021's regular season. Cease was just 9-11 over 26 starts in 2019 and 2020, so his 13-7 mark in 2021 surely qualifies as a 'breakout' year. Cease's season has 'flown under the radar' when one considers that over his last 15 starts, he's held opponents to three ERs or less 14 times. The exception being him allowing seven ERs at Boston on Sep 11. However, over his final three starts after than one, he allowed just one ER over 14.1 innings (0.63 ERA) with 24 strikeouts against ONE walk. This series will move to a Game 4 on Monday. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-10-21 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 46 | Top | 42-47 | Win | 100 | 100 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* "Featured" Sunday O/U is on Cle/LAC Over at 4:05 ET. A pair of 3-1 teams meet Sunday in Los Angeles, as the Browns take on the Chargers. Kevin Stefanski took over as Cleveland's head coach last season and led them to an 11-5 record, the team's first winning record since 2007 (ending a 12-year drought of sub-.500 seasons). More importantly, the Browns made the postseason, ending a 17-year drought. The Browns then CRUSHED the Steelers in the wild card round, before falling to the Chiefs in the Divisional Round. Cleveland opened 2021 with a hard-luck 33-29 loss at KC but has won three in a row since to put them in a three-way tie atop the AFC North with Baltimore and Cincinnati (all 3-1). The Chargers dumped head coach Anthony Lynn after last season (12-20 in 2109 and 2020) and hired Brandon Staley. He's made a BIG difference already, as the Chargers are also off to a 3-1 (currently are in a three-way tie atop the AFC West with the Broncos and Raiders). Los Angeles won 20-16 at Washington in Week 1, before falling 20-17 at home to Dallas in Week 2 (game-winning FG on the game's final play!). However, the Chargers have been 'cooking' with an impressive 30-24 victory at KC in Week 3 and then a 28-14 Week 4 MNF win at home against the previously unbeaten Raiders! Both teams are 'hungry' for a win, playing in highly competitive divisions. Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield really stepped up last season, completing 62.8% for 3,356 yards He's completing 65.5% this season for 935 yards, which is an average of 233.8 YPG (last year's average was 222.7 YPG). However, he had a 26-8 TD-to-INT ratio last season but it's just 2-2 after four games in 2021. The offense has relied more on the one-two RB duo of Chubb (362 yards on 5.2 YPC) and Hunt (234 yards on 5.4 YPC). Cleveland enters No. 1 in the NFL by averaging 177.0 YPG. 'Flying under the radar' is the Cleveland D, allowing 16.8 PPG (4th) on 250.3 YPG (2nd). Justin Herbert of LA outplayed Derek Carr Monday night, completing 25 of 38 for 222 yards with three TDs and no INTs. He's completing 68.9% on the season for 1,178 yards with nine TDs and three INTs. RB Ekeler ran for 117 yards (one TD) plus caught a TD pass. This all-purpose back has run for 283 yards on 5.7 YPC with four TDs plus has 18 receptions and one TD. WRs Allen (28) and Williams (23) are All-Pro caliber plus TE Cook (12 catches) is solid. The LA defense is not quite in Cleveland's class but is allowing just 18.5 PPG (7th) on 332.0 YPG (9th). So why go over? The Browns are on the road for a second straight week and are coming off their worst offensive effort of the season, a 14-7 win at Minnesota. Cleveland gained a season-low 327 yards vs the Vikings, after averaging 410.0 YPG while scoring 28.7 PPG its first three games! Mayfield is way OVERDUE for a big game and up against Herbert (who is "the REAL deal"), should rise to the challenge. Could we see two "gun-slingers" go toe-to-toe in this one? My bet says, "Yes we can!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-10-21 | Bears v. Raiders -5.5 | Top | 20-9 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET, The Chicago Bears beat the Detroit Lions 24-14 at home in Week 4, evening their record at 2-2. Rookie Justin Fields got the start at QB for the injured Dalton and he looked better than his previous game (11 of 17 for 209 yards with no TDs and one INT) but most feel he's NOT ready for primetime. Chicago's running game produced 188 yards and accounted for all three TDs. The Bears visit Las Vegas on Sunday to take on the Raiders, who lost for the first time in Week 4's MNF contest 28-14 to the Chargers. Las Vegas beat Baltimore at home in an OT thriller in Week 1, then it pulled away for a 26-17 victory at Pittsburgh, before securing a second OT victory at home over Miami, 31-28. That marked the Raiders 1st 3-0 start since 2002. However, the Raiders fell behind the Chargers 21-0 last Monday and lost 28-14. As noted above, no one is quite sure about Fields' viability as a starting QB. RB Montgomery ran for 106 yards and two TDs in the win over the Lions and has 309 yards on the season (4.5 YPC / 3 TDs). Robinson caught 102 passes last season and 98 in 2019 but is off to a slower start in 2021 with 13 catches. Mooney caught 61 passes as a rookie and has 17 this year. A quality QB would help. The Chicago defense is solid, allowing 22.8 PPG (10th) on 350.0 YPG (12th). Carr was outplayed by Herbert on MNF but is completing 64.1% for 1,399 yards with 8 TDs and 3 INTs on the season. The problem for the Las Vegas offense is that RB Jacobs has not been healthy. He returned Monday night and had just 40 yards on 13 carries. He's coming off seasons of 1,065 and 1,150 yards. The Raiders are averaging just 80.5 PPG (27th), which is about 40 yards less per game than the last two seasons. TE Waller (24 catches) is "big time" plus Carr has three WRs that make contributions. Renfro leads with 22 catches, Ruggs has 14 while averaging 21.2 YPC and Edwards has only 11 catches but averages 19.5 YPC. The Las Vegas defense is no better than mediocre, allowing 25.0 PPG on 36.1 YPG (both ranks 19th). Excellent bounce-back spot for Las Vegas, who sits in a three-way tie atop the AFC West with the Broncos and Chargers. Meanwhile, it's hard to ignore that Chicago is 0-2 on the road, having scored just 20 points, while allowing 60 points. Lay it with the Ray-Dahs. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-10-21 | Saints -1 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 33-22 | Win | 100 | 121 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas insider is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. Drew Brees finally retired after a Hall of Fame career with the New Orleans. Brees led the Saints to their lone Super Bowl title (after the 2009 season) and even though his arm strength had noticeably dropped off, he still led New Orleans to first-place finishes in the NFC South in each of his final four seasons (winning 11, 13 , 13 and 12 games). The Saints opened the season with a 38-3 win over Green Bay in Week 1 (moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida), handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. New Orleans then lost 26-17 at Carolina and won 28-13 at New England, before losing its delayed home opener last Sunday, 27-21 to the Giants in OT. The Saints are back on the road in Week 5, playing at 2-2 Washington. Washington won the NFC 'Least' in 2020 with a 7-9 record but the Football Team will have to do better than that here in 2021, as 3-1 Dallas looks pretty good. In truth, Washington is lucky NOT to be 1-3, as Heinicke rallied them with two late TD passes, the game-winner coming with about 30 seconds to go was honestly, a 'miracle.' Let me add that the team's first win against the Giants, came when the Giants committed an incredibly stupid offsides penalty on a FG attempt that missed, with Washington winning when it got a second-chance reprieve. The New Orleans passing offense 'left town' with Brees, as while Winston is completing 64.0% with eight TDs and just two INTs (106.4 QB rating), Washington ranks 31st of 32 NFL teams with 144.0 YPG game passing. All-everything RB Alvin Kamara has not looked anything like the player who ran for 932 yards (5.0 YPC / 16 TDs) and caught 83 passes for another five TDs in 2020. However, the Saints D has played well, allowing 17.3 PPG (5th) on 349.3 YPG (11th). The QB from Old Dominion, Taylor Heinicke, has proven he belongs in the NFL, He's completing 69.5% for 960 yards with nine TDs and just three INTs (QB rating of 105.9). However, he gets little help from a running game averaging 103.3 YPG (19th). Washington's defense carried the team to the divisional title and a playoff game last season but this year's unit is GREATLY underachieving. Washington allowed just 304.6 YPG (2nd) in 2020 but has allowed 417.5 YPG (29th) after four games of 2021. What's more, after allowing 20.6 PPG last season, Washington is allowing right at 10 PPG more here in 2021 (30.5 PPG to rank 30th). The Saints are down a notch but are still more than capable. The Saints enter on an impressive 16-7 ATS run as a road favorite and we are getting a bargain here (imagine what the line would be if Washington was 0-4?). Expect New Orleans to treat this as a HUGE game, as the Bucs and Panthers have both opened 3-1 and the Saints catch their bye next weekend, after paying FOUR of their first five away from home. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-10-21 | Packers v. Bengals +3 | Top | 25-22 | Push | 0 | 60 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The Packers and Bengals in a showdown of two 3-1 teams in Week 5 seems like a misprint! However, that's EXACTLY what we have on Sunday. Green Bay got blasted 38-3 in Week 1 by the Saints (game played in Jacksonville due to Hurricane Ida), as Aaron Rodgers suffered the worst loss of his professional career (was just 15 of 28 for 133 yards with two INTs!). However, the Packers have responded with three consecutive wins and covers, with Rodgers completing 67.7% for 764 yards with 8 TDs and zero INTs in 96 attempts. As for the Bengals, second-year QB Joe Burrow has led the Bengals to a 3-1 start as well, completing 72.9% for 988 yards with 9 TDs and 4 INTs. The Packers have rebounded from a season-opening loss to New Orleans by remaining aggressive and confident on both sides of the ball. Rodgers is back to being his 'old self' plus RB Jones is coming around. He has 206 rushing yards (2 TDs) plus 13 catches with 3 TDs. WR Adams has 31 catches and fellow WR Cobb is back healthy. He caught just four passes in his first three games but had five receptions and two TDs in last Sunday's win. The Green Bay defense has come back with a vengeance after the New Orleans' debacle and is allowing a modest 311.5 YPG (6th). The Packers are allowing 25.0 PPG but just 20.7 PPG since that Week 1 loss. Burrow is finally getting some help from his running game, as Joe Mixon has begun fulfilling his potential by running for 353 yards on 4.3 YPC with two TDs. WR Boyd leads with 23 receptions but Chase is the team's "big play" receiver, averaging 17.5 YPC with four TDs on his 17 grabs. MAJOR improvement is being shown by Cincy's D, as after allowing 26.6, 26.3 and 28.4 PPG the previous three seasons, the Bengals stop unit is actually stopping opponents. Cincinnati enters allowing 323.0 YPG (7th) and 18.8 PPG (8th). Cincy's schedule up until now hasn't been much of a 'tester' but here's an opportunity to prove that the team is a legitimate division and playoff contender against a quality opponent. Is it possible that Green Bay is 'fat' and happy having reeled off three consecutive victories? Could be? The Packers also travel to Chicago next week to renew the NFL's oldest-running rivalry. Cincinnati leads the all-time series 7-6 and boasts victories in THREE of the last four meetings, as the Bengals are 2-0 against the Packers at Paul Brown Stadium in that stretch. Does it matter that the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series? It certainly doesn't hurt! The Bengals are in a fantastic ambush spot as a home ‘dog. 'Bow Wow!' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-09-21 | Dodgers -107 v. Giants | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
My 10* Rivalry Rout-Part 2 is on the LA Dodgers at 9:07 ET.
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10-09-21 | Utah +3 v. USC | Top | 42-26 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Pac-12 Game of the Year is on Utah at 8:00 ET. A pair of teams with disappointing starts to their respective 2021 seasons square off in the LA Coliseum on Saturday night, as the 2-2 Utah Utes visit the 3-2 USC Trojans. Utah was ranked 24th in the AP's preseason poll and USC was ranked 15th. However, Utah has lost to both of the quality teams it has played in the early going, falling 26-17 at BYU (snapped a nine-game winning streak over its longtime rival) and 33-31 in OT at San Diego St. Yes, BYU is ranked 10th and SD State just moved into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday but there is NO overlooking that the Utes check in at 0-4 ATS. USC comes in 3-2 after last weekend's 37-14 victory at Colorado as a 9.5 point favorite. However, the Trojans have surely had their ups and downs in 2021. They lost 42-28 at home vs Stanford as an 18-point favorite, a loss that cost Clay Helton his job. Taking over is Donte Williams (first-ever head coaching job) and he lost his second game, 45-27 against Oregon St, again at home and again as a sizeable favorite of 10 points. Something tells me Williams will be 'looking over his shoulder' all season, as rumors abound that USC is looking for a "big name" head coach. Can you say Urban Meyer. Utah had hoped for big things from Charlie Brewer, who came from Baylor where he had 65 TDs and 28 INTs. However, he was benched during the SD St loss, with Cameron Rising going 19 of 32 for 153 yards with three TDs and no INTs. Rising started in the 24-13 win over Washington St but was just a modest 13 of 23 for 137 yards. However, he didn't throw a TD pass and he's thrown 55 passes without an INT the last two games. He's the better choice these days and the Utah defense is solid, allowing 302.3 YPG (25th) and 22.3 PPG. Utah's defensive strength is its pass D, allowing 163.5 YPG to rank 13th. USC is no longer called "Tailback U," as the Trojans are now a passing team. That's the case again in 2021 with Kedon Slovis completing 64.6% for 1,118 yards but he has a modest seven TD passes with four INTs. WR London leads the nation with 48 catches, grabbing four TDs. RB Ingram is solid (359 yards on 5.8 YPC) but the team's average of 137.4 YPG on the ground ranks only 91st. The USC defense allows 24.4 PPG (70th) on 361.4 YPG (61st). Utah is in a very good spot here, having last week off and despite its 2-2 start, is 1-0 in Pac 12 play. USC has lost its last two home games (SU as big double-digit favorites), while allowing a combined 87 points! USC is off next weekend and then plays Notre Dame in one of the nation's biggest (if not THE biggest) intersectional rivalries. Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham has led Utah to 13 bowls in 15 years (10-3), before the school declined to play in a bowl last year (COVID). He squares off against a VERY inexperienced head coach plus brings a 12-2 ATS record as a road dog into this contest going back to 2014. Meanwhile, USC comes in 8-14 as a home favorite since 2017. I'm calling for the SU win but of course, take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-09-21 | LSU +3.5 v. Kentucky | Top | 21-42 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 13 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on LSU at 7:30 ET. Joe Burrow elevated Ed Orgeron to the status coaching 'genius' in 2019, leading LSU to one of CFB's best-ever single seasons. The 2019 Tigers would go 15-0 (11-4 ATS), outscoring opponents 48.4 PPG-to-21.9 PPG. However, LSU fell to 5-5 in COVID's 2020 season, while averaging 32.0 PPG and allowing 34.9 PPG. LSU opened the current season with a 38-27 loss at UCLA, before winning home games over McNeese ST (34-7) and Central Michigan (49-21). LSU picked up an impressive 28-25 win at Miss St on the final Saturday of September (lead 28-10 in the mid-4th quarter) but then blew a 13-point lead at home in a 24-19 loss to Auburn this past Saturday. The Tigers are now on the road this Saturday at Kentucky. How 'bout dem Wildcats! Kentucky held off then-No. 10 Florida last Saturday, winning 20-13 at home. It marked Kentucky's first home win over the Gators since 1986 and catapulted the Wildcats into the AP top-25 for the first time this year at No. 16. Kentucky has started 5-0 for just the third time in its last 35 years, with two of those perfect starts coming under head coach Mark Stoops. Stoops led Kentucky to a 5-0 start in 2018 and the Wildcats finished 10-3, including a 27-24 Citrus Bowl win over No. 13 Penn St. QB Max Johnson has thrown for 1,469 yards (62.45 completions / 16 TDs and 4 INTs) but gets almost NO help from an LS+U running game producing a pathetic 70.8 YPG (128th) on 2.4 YPC. Johnson has one of the nation's best WRs in Boutte, who has 30 receptions and an FBS-high nine TD grabs! The LSU defense is about average, allowing 23.0 PPG (59th) on 369.6 YPG (67th). However, it's quite an improvement over last year's unit which allowed 34.9 PPG on 492.0 YPG! Kentucky QB Will Levis completes 61.2% for 989 yards with eight TDs but also six INTs. The running game ranks 36th, averaging 191.0 YPG, led by Rodriguez (612 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). However, it's the Kentucky defense that leads the way, allowing 16.8 PPG (21st) on 284.6 YPG (12th). That Wildcat D came up HUGE last Saturday, as Florida had 1st and goal opportunities two times and failed to tie it up EIGHT in eight tries! Here's the 'dope.' The Kentucky offense left MUCH to be desired vs Florida, converting just one of nine third downs, gaining just 224 yards, as Levis completed just seven passes in 17 attempts for 87 yards. At 3-2, this is a HUGE game for LSU. These two haven’t met since 2014 and LSU has won SIX of the last seven meetings. LSU is 10-3 SU & ATS vs the SEC East while Kentucky is just 1-9 SU against SEC West foes, excluding Miss St (annual Egg Bowl opponent). Take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-09-21 | TCU -1.5 v. Texas Tech | Top | 52-31 | Win | 100 | 76 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Big 12 Game of the Week is on TCU at 7:00 ET. 2-2 TCU takes on 4-1 Texas Tech Saturday in Lubbock. TCU head coach Garry Patterson is in his 21st season with the Horned Frogs and has accrued some legacy. He's led TCU to 16 bowls in his first 20 seasons (a 17th appearance was canceled in 2020) and he's posted 11 seasons of 10-plus wins. From 2008-11 (a four-year span), TCU went 47-5, including 13-0 in 2010. TCU had 12-1 seasons in 2009 and 2014. However, the team entered this season on a three-year run of just 18-17. Texas Tech's Matt Wells ins in his third season in Lubbock, after leading Utah St to bowls in five of his six seasons. However, the Red Raiders have gone 4-8 and 4-6 in his first two seasons. That's changed in 2021, as Tech has opened 4-1. The Horned Frogs opened 2-0 but then lost 42-34 to rival SMU on Sep 25 and followed with a hard-fought 32-27 last Saturday against Texas (note: TT lost 70-35 to Texas!). QB Max Duggan (63.2% for 899 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs plus 143 rushing yards and two TDs) leads a well-balanced offense. TCU is averaging 197.0 YPG rushing, led by Zach Evans (443 yards on 7.8 YPC with 3 TDs). The offense is averaging 35.0 PPG (33rd) but the defense is not a strength like in years past, allowing 27.3 PPG (85th) on 397.3 YPG (83rd). Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough will be out for several more weeks with a broken collarbone, so Henry Colombi, who has filled in the last two games, will again get the start. He entered in the 70-35 loss to Texas and passed for 324 yards with three TDs (one INT). He was 23 of 34 for 266 yards (0 TDs / 0 INTs) in last Saturday's 23-20 upset at West Va. Texas Tech's defense struggles much like TCU's (that 70 points vs Texas won't go away), allowing 30.8 PPG (102nd). Tech's 23-20 victory at West Virginia last week helped Texas Tech chase away the aftertaste of a 70-35 loss at Texas the week before, while TCU is in a different kind of mood after its comeback bid against the Longhorns fizzled in a 32-27 setback last week. "We can't feel sorry for ourselves," Max Duggan said. "Going in two weeks straight with a loss is going to suck, but nobody is going to feel bad for us. Texas Tech isn't going to feel sorry for us." After their big road win in West Virginia, I think a bit of a letdown is in order here for the Red Raiders, while conversely, after back-to-back losses, this one absolutely "means more" to the hungry Horned Frogs. Note that TCU last lost THREE games in a row back in 2018, while Texas Tech is on a 1-6 ATS slide off an ATS win. This showdown is dubbed "The Battle for the Saddle" and expect for TCU to 'ride away' with it on Saturday. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-09-21 | UTEP v. Southern Miss +2.5 | 26-13 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 26 m | Show | |
The third play of my STP is an 8* on Southern Miss at 7:00 ET. Remember the days when Southern Miss went to 11 bowls from 1997-2008, winning SEVEN? More recently, the Golden Eagles went 12-0 in 2011 but then 0-12 in 2012, followed by 1-11 and 3-9 seasons. From 2015 through 2019 the school went 'bowling' FOUR times but then went 3-7 in 2021. That's the situation Will Hall stepped into in 2021, getting his first head coaching gig. Southern Miss has opened 1-4 this season, with the lone win coming 37-0 over Grambling. | |||||||
10-09-21 | San Jose State +3 v. Colorado State | 14-32 | Loss | -111 | 34 h 11 m | Show | |
The 1st play of my STP is an 8* on San Jose St at 3:30 ET. San Jose St shocked almost all by going 7-0 SU and ATS to win the MWC, beating Boise St in the championship game, 34-20 (as a 7-point underdog). However, the Spartans then lost (as a 9-point favorite) 34-13 to Ball St in the Arizona Bowl. Still, with 19 returning starters, Brent Brennan's team entered the current season with high expectations. SJSU opened the season with a 45-14 win over Southern Utah, but then fell 30-7 to USC in Week 2. The Spartans then bounced back with a 17-13 victory over Hawaii, before falling 23-3 to Western Michigan. Last weekend against New Mexico State, SJSU earned a 37-31 win, led by 193 yards passing and three TDs from QB Nick Nash, while RB Tyler Nevens had 22 carries for 115 yards and a TD. | |||||||
10-09-21 | Connecticut v. UMass +3.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show | |
The 2nd play of my STP is an 8* on UMass at 3:30 ET. Connecticut was 1-11 in 2018 and 2-10 in 2019, before deciding not to play in 2020. The Huskies returned for 2021 and have opened 0-6 SU but one could argue they are improving, UConn opened 0-3 ATS but has gone 3-0 ATS its last three games, including a 24-22 loss to Wyoming (as a 31.5-point dog) and 30-28 to Vandy (as a 14.5-point dog). | |||||||
10-09-21 | Michigan State v. Rutgers +6 | Top | 31-13 | Loss | -111 | 47 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Rutgers at 12:00 ET. The "Mel Tucker Era" began in 2020 with the Spartans going 2-5. Michigan State entered the season as an afterthought but after a 5-0 start, the Spartans are now knocking at the door for a top-10 ranking (moved up to No. 11 in the AP's poll last Sunday). Michigan St visits Piscataway, NJ at "high noon" on Saturday, taking on 3-2 Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights' head coach is Greg Schiano, who is in his second stint with the school. Schiano led Rutgers to SIX bowls in a seven-year span (2005-2011), winning his last five bowls, before taking over the Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFL. He went 7-9 and 4-12 and THAT was THAT. He returned to Rutgers in the COVID year of 2020 and went 3-6. The question looms, is Mich St really a top-10 team? QB Payton Thorne is completing 63.1% for 1,236 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. the running game is averaging 210.8 YPG (24th), led by the nation's leading rusher Kenneth Walker III, who has 680 yards on 6.8 YPC (136.0 YPG). He's got nine TDs, eight rushing. WR Jayden Reed has 20 catches for 468 yards (23.1 YPC) and five TDs. Reed leads all major-college players in all-purpose yardage, with 176.6 per game. He has caught at least one TD pass in the last four games and he's returned a punt for a touchdown in two consecutive games. Throw in a Michigan St defense that's allowing just 20.6 PPG (39th) and maybe the answer is yes, the Spartans are that good! That said, beware of Rutgers. If one just looks at last Saturday's 52-13 loss last Saturday at Ohio St, you could be missing something. Rutgers' defense was shredded for 541 yards and failed to produce a takeaway for the third straight game. Ohio State led 45-6 at halftime. Yes, Rutgers can't play with Ohio St (Buckeyes have scored at least 49 points in EIGHT straight wins) but look at the team's first four games. Rutgers opened 3-0 and then played Michigan (5-0 start and has NEVER trailed all season) even in a 20-13 loss. The defense held Michigan to just 275 total yards, including 112 rushing yards (Wolverines have averaged 255.0 YPG on the ground for the season). Rutgers doesn't have the skill position players on offense that Michigan St does but I believe Rutgers has the BETTER defense. A closer look at the Spartans' D shows that while it has allowed 20.3 PPG, it has also allowed 428.8 YPG (101st). Maybe Rutgers' QB Vedral (66.7% for 914 yards) with six TDs and three INTs (all three picks came vs Ohio St!) plus RB Pacheco (267 yards on 3.8 YPC with 3 TDs) can have success here at home. Getting back to the Rutgers' D, despite the horrific effort vs Ohio St, Rutgers is still allowing 21.2 PPG (42nd) on 320.2 YPG (40th). Prior to the Ohio St contest and INCLUDING the game vs Michigan, Rutgers had allowed 13.5 PPG on 265.0 YPG. Referring to the Ohio St game, Greg Schiano said he wants that loss to sting. "I hope we can't put it behind us that quickly," he said. "That wasn't a great outing, so we have to get to work and that's what we did. Hopefully, those kinds of things fuel you a little bit and get you cranking here early in the week." The Scarlet Knights took the Wolverines "down to the wire," and this is exactly the same sort of competitive affair that I expect to see from Rutgers here as well, after the back-to-back losses. Upset Alert? I think so but of course, take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-08-21 | Dodgers v. Giants +109 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 109 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout is on the SF Giants at 9:37 ET. The San Francisco Giants set a franchise record with 107 wins in 2021, while the Dodgers tied their franchise-high with 106 wins. San Fran's one-game edge in the NL West not only snapped LA's eight-year run as division champs but also allowed the Giants to have the home field advantage in this NLCS matchup. By the way, the Dodgers and Giants will go head-to-head in the postseason for the first time in the 131-year history of their New York-born rivalry. This matchup only came about when the Dodgers' Chris Taylor hit a walk-off two-run HR Wednesday in the bottom of the 9th to allow LA to edge the red-hot Cardinals, 3-1. The starters for Game 1 are quite a duo. Walker Buehler of the Dodgers (16-4, 2.47 ERA) sports the third-best ERA in all of baseball and owns a 7-1 (2.49 ERA) career record over the Dodgers in 11 starts (LA is 8-3). Then there is Logan Webb (11-3, 3.03 ERA) of the Giants. Webb's last loss came way back on May 5, as over his last 20 starts, he's 10-0 with the Giants going 18-2. The Giants went 21-5 in Webb's starts this season, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark (+$1,283) among starters. Walker is an elite pitcher but do you really want to go against Webb? Could the Dodgers have a small mental letdown here? After all, they won 18 of their final 21 games in 2021 games (seven in a row to close the regular season) but still fell ONE game shy of catching the Giants. That forced this 106-win team into a "winner-take-all" one-game wild card contest vs the Cards, a game that wasn't decided until the bottom of the 9th (see above). Let me add that after the Dodgers beat the Giants in their first four meetings this season, they dropped 10 of the last 15. As for Buehler, he conceded 14 ERs over his final three road starts (lasting just 12.2 innings for a 9.95 ERA), including getting shelled for six runs in his last start at Oracle Park on Sep 5 (lasted three innings). Getting back to Webb, he's faced the Dodgers three times in 2021 (matched up against 20-game winner Urias in each one) with the Giants winning all THREE, as Webb allowed four ERs over 16 innings for a 2.25 ERA. Giants take Game 1. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-08-21 | Braves v. Brewers -145 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Brewers at 4:37 ET. The Atlanta Braves fought through key injuries to offensive stars and starting pitchers to win their FOURTH consecutive NL East crown with a record of 88-73 (6 1/2-games clear of the Phillies). The Braves were in third place, 2 1/2 games under .500 on Aug 1 but Atlanta clinched the NL East with a sweep of second-place Philadelphia in the next-to-last series. Meanwhile, the Brewers clinched their FOURTH consecutive playoff berth on Sep 18, but went 4-10 the rest of the way. Three of those victories were in a Central-clinching home sweep of the Mets. 95-67 Milwaukee dropped FIVE of six in a season-ending road trip against the Cardinals and Dodgers to finish, weighing rest against momentum. | |||||||
10-08-21 | White Sox v. Astros -122 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* "1st Pitch" is on the Hou Astros at 2:07 ET. The Chicago White Sox broke an 11-year playoff drought in 2020 (35-25) and this season won the AL Central with a 93-69 record, giving the team its first division title since 2008. Chicago's opponent in this ALDS is the Houston Astros, the team everyone now loves to hate. Houston won 101, 103 and 107 games from 2017-19 but a sign-stealing scandal changed the way the team's accomplishments were viewed. The Astros snuck into the 2020 postseason at 29-31 but then made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS, before losing to the Rays. The Astros are back in their FIFTH straight postseason, after going 95-67. | |||||||
10-07-21 | Rams -1 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* NFC West Game of the Week is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. Matthew Stafford was traded to the Rams in a package involving Jared Goff and made his Rams debut during Sunday Night Football against the Chicago Bears. He threw for 321 yards and three TDs with a career-best 156.1 passer rating as the Rams won 34–14. In Week 2 against the Indianapolis Colts, Stafford led the Rams to a 27-24 win while throwing for 278 yards, two TDs, and one interception. Then, against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Stafford threw for 343 yards and four TDs as the Rams won 34–24. Stafford's and the Rams' luck ran out last Sunday, falling 37-20 at Arizona. Note, the Cards are the NFL's lone 4-0 team. Fellow NFC West rival, the Seattle Seahawks, have been all over the map in the consistency department. Seattle opened with a 28-16 win at Indianapolis before back-to-back losses at home 33-30 to the Titans and on the road 30-17 at Minnesota. Seattle got a much-needed road win 28-21 in San Francisco last Sunday. Talking about QB play, Russell Wilson is completing 72.5% for 1,044 yards with nine TDs and not a single interception in 109 attempts, giving him a QB rating of 129.9. Stafford is completing 68.1% for 1,222 with 11 TDs and two INTs for a 117.8 rating. He is blessed with two vet WRs in Kupp (30 catches and five TDs) and Woods (15 catches with two TDs). Let me note that both Kupp and Woods have each caught 90 passes or more the last two seasons. TE Higbee (15 catches) is solid and second-year WR Jefferson has 13 catches, after catching just 19 all of last season. Wilson earned his 100th win Sunday (this is his 10th season) and also has two quality WRs in Locket and Metcalf. Both have caught 30 balls with three TDs apiece. RB Carson 232 yards on 4.3 YPC with three TDs gives Seattle a slight advantage in the running game. A HUGE problem has been Seattle's OL issues, which has allowed 11 sacks (Rams' D has 12 sacks). Both defenses have struggled but Seattle has the BIGGER issues! Seattle is last in total defense (444.5 YPG) and its pass D has made just one INT in 157 attempts, while allowing eight TD passes. It's hard to find a flaw in Wilson but Stafford has found a 'home' in LA under head coach Sean McVay and his numbers are very comparable to Wilson after four games. McVay is in his fifth season with the Rams, winning 10-plus games in THREE of his first four. McVay owns an excellent record on the road since 2017, going an impressive 22-11 SU. I had the Seahawks over San Francisco last Sunday but Thursday, my NFC West Game of the Week play is on the Rams! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-05-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Wild Card Total of the Year is on NYY/Bos Over at 8:08 ET. The wild card race in the AL came down to the 162nd game, as the Yankees, Red Sox, Glue Jays and Mariners could have all ended the regular season with a 91-71 record, IF New York and Boston had both lost, while Toronto and Seattle had both won. As it turned out, the Yankees scored in the bottom of the 9th to beat the Rays 1-0 and the Red Sox overcame a 5-0 deficit to the Nats (in DC) to win 7-5, on a two-run HR in the 9th. Toronto did win on Sunday but fell ONE game shy of New York and Boston at 91-71 (Seattle lost to come up two games short). Not for nothing but the AL East is the first division with four 90-win teams since MLB split each league into three divisions (1994).
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10-04-21 | Raiders v. Chargers -3 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Rivalry Game of the Month is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET. The Chargers and Raiders were "original members" of the AFL back in 1960. The Chargers began in LA, spent most of their history in San Diego but recently find themselves back in "The City of Angels." The Raiders began in Oakland, 'escaped' to LA, returned to Oakland and now reside in "Sin City." The KC Chiefs have won the AFC West in each of the last FIVE seasons but currently reside in last-place at 2-2. Oakland leads the division at 3-0, the Broncos are 3-1 and the Chargers 2-1. The set-up is simple, the Raiders move to 4-0 with a win, while if the Chargers win, that will make it a three-way tie atop the division (Broncos, Chargers and Raiders would all be 3-1). However, a Chargers loss drops them into last-place at 2-2 with the Chiefs. Las Vegas beat Baltimore at home in an OT thriller in Week 1, then it pulled away for a 26-17 victory at Pittsburgh, before securing a second OT victory at home over Miami, 31-28. Los Angeles got to 2-1 with a 20-16 Week 1 win at Washington, before then falling 20-17 at home to Dallas in Week 2 (game-winning FG on the game's final play!), The Chargers were 'cooking' in Week 3 on the road and they left Kansas City with an impressive 30-24 victory. QB Derek Carr leads the NFL in passing yards while guiding the Las Vegas Raiders to the franchise's first 3-0 start since 2002. Carr has passed for over 4,000 in each of the last three seasons but he's on pace for a very special season in 2021. He's completing 64.7% for 1,203 yards with six TDs and two INTs (101.4 QB rating. He's got a terrific TE in Waller (20 catches) and two quality WRs in Ruggs (21.5 YPC) and Edwards (21.0 YPC). RB Jacobs has been hobbled with an ankle injury (questionable again here) and the running game isn't helping Carr very much (91.2 YPG to rank 24th). The Las Vegas defense has been average but one interesting aspect is that first-year Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley ran the Chargers' defense last season, so he saw a lot of Justin Herbert on the practice field as well as in games. QB Herbert had a big 'freshman' season in 2020 and is completing 69.8% for 956 yards with six TDs and three INTs (Chargers rank 3rd in passing yards at 307.3 YPG). Like Carr, Herbert has quality 'targets' in WRs Williams (22 catches / 13.4 YPC and 4 TDs) and Allen (21 catches on 12.3 YPC) Note: Allen has 100-plus catches in THREE of the last four seasons, missing with 97 in the other year. RB Ekeler (166 yards on 4.7 YPC), is also a big part of the passing offense with 15 catches. The key matchup here is the LA pass D (201.7 YPG ranks 8th) vs Carr, as this will be the best pass D he has faced in 2021. The Chargers have the talent to challenge for the AFC West title and/or a wild card spot but NEED to start winning home games, as they are just 19-22 SU at home since returning to LA. I think the Raiders are absolutely primed for some regression here and I'm backing LA at this price. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-03-21 | Bucs v. Patriots +7 | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 99 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic ('Brady Bowl') is on the NE Patriots at 8:20 ET. Tom Brady is returning to his NFL home of 20 seasons on Sunday night when the 2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers visit the 1-2 New England Patriots in Foxborough. Brady won six Super Bowl titles with the Patriots and head coach Bill Belichick, before capturing his seventh last season in his first season with the Buccaneers. While Brady was adding to his legacy, Belichick's Brady-less Patriots finished 7-9, just the team's second losing record since Belichick went 5-11 in his first season as the franchise's head coach (2000). It's not really original, but I've dubbed this game 'The Brady Bowl!'
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10-03-21 | Steelers +7 v. Packers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* AFC/NFC Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 4:25 ET. The Packers opened with a 38-3 loss to the Saints in Week 1, a contest moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida. The loss was Aaron Rodgers' worst as a pro, as he completed 15 of 28 passes for 133 yards with no TDs and two INTs (36.8 QB rating). However, Rodgers and the Packers have rebounded with a 35-17 home win over the Lions and last Sunday night, won 30-28 at San Francisco on a FG as time expired. The Steelers shocked the Bills in Week 1 at Buffalo, outscoring them 17-6 in the fourth-quarter for a 23-16 win. However, Pittsburgh has lost its last two games (BOTH a home!), 26-17 to the Raiders and 24-10 vs the Bengals.
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10-03-21 | Seahawks +3 v. 49ers | Top | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 79 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* NFC West Game of the Week is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:05 ET. Full, detailed analysis Thursday afternoon by 3:00 ET. | |||||||
10-03-21 | Colts v. Dolphins -1.5 | Top | 27-17 | Loss | -114 | 113 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET. The Indianapolis Colts went 11-5 in 2020 with Rivers at QB and 'scared' the Bills in the wild card round, losing 27-24 in Buffalo. However, with Rivers retired, the Colts have opened 0-3, the team's worst start in 10 years!. Indy will be in Miami to take on the Dolphins, who got outplayed by the Pats at New England in Week 1 but somehow managed to win 17-16. The Dolphins then got clobbered at home 35-0 by Buffalo, before losing just 31-28 in Las Vegas last Sunday to the Raiders (overtime FG with 0:00 on the clock!). Both teams are "on the ropes" as they collide in Hard Rock Stadium this Sunday. QB Carson Wentz does not look like Indy's 'answer' at QB, playing on two bum ankles with a struggling offensive line plus he has very little talent at the receiver positions. RB Jonathan Taylor, who finished so strong in the second half of the 2020 season, has 171 yards (4.1 YPC / 0 TDs) after three games. The Indy running game averages 103.0 YPG to rank 19th (OL woes don't help!). The defense is allowing 26.7 PPG (22nd). The Dolphins don't run the ball well either, averaging only 92.7 YPG (23rd) but Myles Gaskin gained 65 yards against the Raiders last Sunday and is averaging 5.1 YPC on the season (he was terrific in college at Washington!). Tua got hurt early in the Buffalo game but as I noted in taking Miami last week vs the Raiders, Jacoby Brissett isn't really a drop-off in production. With a full week to prepare, was 32-49 for a modest 215 yards but didn't throw an INT plus added 37 yards rushing with a TD. Most importantly, he drove the Colts 82 yards in under 3 1/2-minutes to a score and a two-point conversion that sent the game to OT. Also of note last Sunday for Miami was TE Gesicki's 10 catches and rookie WR Waddle's 12 (he has 22 thru three games!). Brissett will surely be motivated against his ex-team and while Miami was no match for Buffalo in Week 2 (Bills were coming off a Week 1 home upset to the Steelers), let's NOT forget that the Dolphins ended last season with ATS wins in their final five home games (4-1 SU, losing only to KC). It's safe to say that the Colts are NOT the Chiefs! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-03-21 | Panthers v. Cowboys UNDER 51 | Top | 28-36 | Loss | -108 | 74 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Car/Dal Under at 1:00 ET. This Week 4 matchup between the Panthers and Cowboys features a contest between two FIRST-PLACE teams. The 3-0 Panthers sit atop the NFC South (take that TB 12), while the 2-1 Cowboys lead the NFC 'Least,' as its only winning team. BOTH are a perfect 3-0 ATS. The Carolina Panthers are surely one of the NFL's biggest surprises, while the Cowboys lone loss came at Tampa Bay (on a FG in the closing second). Dallas followed that tough loss with back-to-back wins, receiving kudos after defeating the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles. | |||||||
10-03-21 | Giants +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. Daniel Jones is just looking for a break. He's played well in 2021, completing 65.4% for 782 yards and while he's thrown for just a modest two TD passes, he has not thrown an interception in 104 attempts. With RB Barkley still looking nothing like the player who topped 1,000-yards rushing in his first two years, Jones is also the team's leading rusher with 161 yards (7.0 YPC and two TDs). The bottom line? The 0-3 Giants are still trying to figure out how to win a game. They have lost their last two games on last-second field goals by Washington (30-29) and Atlanta (17-14). The 2-1 Saints have had a rollercoaster start to their first season without Drew Brees in what seems like two decades! The team's home opener against the Packers was moved to Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida, but the Saints won 38-3, handing Aaron Rodgers his worst loss as a pro. Brees' replacement, Jameis Winston, threw five TD passes against Green Bay but threw for only 148 yards. The Saints lost 26-7 at Carolina in Week 2, with Winston throwing two INTs and no INTs plus with only 111 passing yards. In last Sunday's 28-13 win at New England, Winston threw two TDs without an interception but again, passed for only 128 yards. RB Kamara has been quiet so far as well but the defense has been excellent. New Orleans is holding opponents to 14.0 PPG (3rd) on 304.0 YPG (6th). Yes, this will be the Saints' first home game but covering a TD or more pointspread will NOT be easy. Who would ever think that Drew Brees' former team ranks 31st in total offense (234.0 YPG) and 1st in passing yards (113.7 YPG). Yes, the Giants have trouble finishing games but I will NOT ignore the fact that the Giants are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 as an away underdog. "Close isn't good enough," Giants coach Joe Judge said, adding that the last-second field goals didn't tell the whole story. However, close is good enough for me, Joe. 'Bow-Wow!' Take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-02-21 | Mississippi State +9.5 v. Texas A&M | 26-22 | Win | 100 | 78 h 50 m | Show | |
The third play of my STP is an 8* on Mississippi State at 7:00 ET Texas A&M had won NINE straight over Arkansas but head coach Jimbo Fisher's Aggies are licking their wounds after being pushed around in a 20-10 loss to Arkansas last Saturday. A&M had opened 3-0 but the school's first loss dropped them to No. 15 in the AP poll. "We did not play well, consistently," Fisher said this week about the loss to the Razorbacks. "As I always try to say, it's doing ordinary things better, becoming more fundamentally sound in how we do things and becoming much more consistent." A&M is back home on Saturday and set to host 2-2 Mississippi St, led by head coach Mike Leach. The Bulldogs have played some tough competition already. They managed a 35-34 win over Louisiana Tech in its opener, by scoring the game's final 21 points. They then won at home 24-10 over NC State, before a tough 31-29 loss at Memphis. A 28-25 home loss to LSU last weekend has Miss St at 2-2. A Mike Leach offense always centers around its QB and Will Rogers is filling the bill. He's completing 75.1% for 1,454 yards with 11 TDs and just two INTs. However, the running game adds just just 62.8 YPG (129th) on 3.3 YPC. On the A&M side, backup QB Zach Calzada took over for injured starter Haynes King (broken right leg) earlier this season and the sophomore signal caller struggled against the physical Arkansas defense, finishing with just 151 passing yards and an interception in the loss. One way for Fisher to protect Calzada is to run the football more effectively with RBs Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane. The two combined to average 5.3 yards a carry against Arkansas. On the season, A&M is averaging 169.3 YPG (57th). Defense is A&M's strength though, as the Aggies are allowing only 9.3 PPG (9th) on 291.5 YPG (23rd). The Bulldogs had a 29-14 FD edge last week vs LSU but gave up two long pass TDs, falling behind 21-3 (lost by just a FG). The schools have met 14 times and while A&M has won two straight, the series is tied 7-7. Mississippi State has twice knocked off a ranked Texas A&M team in recent years, beating No. 16 Texas A&M in 2018 and the No. 7 Aggies in 2016, although both games were played in Starkville. A&M figures to bounce back from last week's loss but don't be too sure. I like the Bulldogs to keep this one competitive, keeping the score much closer than expected. Grab the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-02-21 | Liberty v. UAB -1.5 | Top | 36-12 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on UAB at 7:00 ET. Hugh Freeze was 10-2 in a one-year stint at Arkansas St, which he used as a springboard to get the job at Ole miss. However, his stay ended amid recruiting and academic violations. He resurfaced at Liberty in 2019 and led the Flames to a 8-5 season, including a Cure Bowl win. Then came last year's 10-1 team that capped its season with a second straight Cure Bowl win over an 11-0 Coastal Carolina team. Liberty opened the current season 3-0 and were on the cusp of breaking into the AP top-25 but lost 24-21 at Syracuse last Saturday. The Orange kicked the game-winning 35-yard field goal with no time on the clock, using a late turnover to set up the game-winner.
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10-02-21 | Washington State +7.5 v. California | 21-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 50 m | Show | |
The second play of my STP is an 8* on Washington State a t ET. A couple of 1-3 teams collide here with Cal coming in as a solid home favorite over Washington St (more in a bit). Both teams have struggled defensively, with the Cougars allowing 29.8 PPG (99th) and Cal allowing 29.3 PPG (93rd). The Washington St defense allows 415.0 YPG (94th) and the Cal defense 417.8 YPG (96th) Both teams saw potential Pac-12 victories slip through their grasp last weekend. Cal was down seven points in OT in the extra session and drove to the Washington two-yard line, where Damien Moore fumbled at the goal line, preventing the Golden Bears from potentially either tying the score with a PAT or going for the road win with a two-pointer. As for Washington St, the Cougars held a 13-10 lead into the final five minutes at Utah before giving up two late scores in a 24-13 defeat. The home team has won the last five meetings in the 102-year-old rivalry and Cal may be slightly the better team on paper but Cal is just 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 as a home favorite and more notably, 1-10-1 ATS as a home favorite under head coach Justin Wilcox. Give the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-02-21 | Army v. Ball State +7.5 | Top | 16-28 | Win | 100 | 58 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference Game of the Month is on Ball State at 5:00 ET. Army, under head coach Jeff Monken, has been 'bowling' in FOUR of the last five seasons (won 10 games in 2017, 11 in 2018 and went 9-3 in last year's pandemic-shortened season, after losing 24-21 to West Va in the Liberty Bowl (covered at plus-7). The Black Knights have opened 4-0 here in 2021 but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that their four opponents are a combined 3-13 (.188) SU to open the current season. Ball St has opened 1-3, which is somewhat of a head-scratcher, as the Cardinals are coming off a 7-1 season in 2020. The Cardinals lost their delayed season-opener but then won FIVE in a row to reach the MAC title games against Buffalo which had gone 5-0, while averaging 43.4 PPG. However, as a 13-point underdog, Ball St beat Buffalo 38-28 and then went on to beat a then-7-0 San Jose St team (also 7-0 ATS) 34-13 in the Arizona Bowl. Entering this season, 10 starters returned on both offense and defense and I read more than a few places that this year's team was shaping up as head coach Mike Neu's best (this marks his 6th season at Muncie). It's no surprise that Army comes in averaging 344.5 YPG rushing (No. 2 in the nation, averaging 5.2 YPC with 17 rushing TDs. QB Anderson is the team's leading rusher 431 yards on 7.4 YPC and 5 TDs) with Robinson being the most productive RB (215 yards on 11.3 YPC). Anderson has attempted just 15 passes with three TDs and zero INTs (for only 187 yards). The best thing Army's defense has is that the offense controls the clock by 'eating' yards and time off the clock, while 'coughing up' just one turnover. The Army D checks in allowing 19.0 PPG (38th) on 277.8 YPG (16th). The 'trick' for Ball St will be to move the ball and keep Army from dominating the game with its rushing attack. Easier said than done but I think Ball St is capable of a breakout performance in this one. QB Plitt is completing 61.2% but for only 614 yards in four games (two TDs / three INTs). That compares to him throwing for 2,164 yards with 17 TDs and six INTs in just eight games last season. In 2019, he threw for 2,918 yards with 24 TDs and seven INTs. He's WAAY better than he's looked so far. I noted Army's recent success up top but being favored on the road is not something Army has seen much of. The Black Knights have been a road favorite just SEVEN times in the last five seasons, going 4-3 SU and ATS. Army has next weekend off and then plays three straight important opponents, Wisconsin, Wake Forest (off to a 4-0 start) and Air Force (3-1 start). Upset alert? Just maybe but be sure to take the points, remembering Army's opponents so far are a combined 3-13! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-02-21 | Texas Tech +8 v. West Virginia | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 49 h 45 m | Show | |
The first play of my STP is an 8* on Texas Tech at 3:30 ET. Texas Tech opened the season 3-0 but then allowed 70 points (on 639 yards) in a 70-35 loss at Texas last Saturday. Starting QB Tyler Slough (an Oregon transfer) broke his left collarbone last week and will be out for at least six week. Stepping in was Henri Colombi, who threw for 324 yards with TD throws of 40, 69 and 75 yards. Columbi will get his first start of 2021 in this contest and will surely be confident, after he made a start in 2020 at home against West Va last season, completing 22 of 28 for 169 yards with a TD pass, a TD run and no INTs in a 34-37 win. West Va won five straight in this series from 2014-2018 but Texas Tech has won and covered the last two. West Va has a vet QB in Doege (62.4% for 889 yards with a 6-4 ratio) and a quality RB in Brown (321 yards on 4.9 YPC with 5 TDs) and does come in having gone 7-0 SU at home since the start of the 2020 season. West Va does have a HUGE defensive edge, allowing 16.8 PPG to Tech's 33.5 but last week's results, set up an interesting situation. While Tech was blown out by Texas, West Va took highly-ranked Oklahoma to the wire in a 16-13 loss. The Sooners won the contest on a game-winning FG on the game's final play. The Sooners haven't come close to looking like a top-10 team and I believe are overrated. Meanwhile, despite losing by five TDs, Tech gained 520 yards on Texas. The Red Raiders are just 1-10 SU on the road since the start of the 2019 season but I'm expecting a let down by West Va off the Oklahoma game and WANT the points with Texas Tech. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-02-21 | Rays v. Yankees -125 | Top | 12-2 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 1:05 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays could view this weekend series as a rehearsal for what they hope is a deep postseason run but the Rays and Yankees have developed a real dislike for each other the last decade and 'making life tough' on New York as it looks to clinch the No. 1 wild card spot, sure is playing on the minds of all associated with the franchise. That was the case last night, as the Rays opened the series by holding on for a 4-3 victory. The 99-61 Rays are 6-2 in the Bronx this season and 11-3 there since the start of last season. The loss dropped the Yankees to 91-69 but they lead the AL wild-card race, ONE game ahead of the 90-70 Boston Red Sox and two in front of the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners, who are both 89-71. Full disclosure, I played and lost on the New York Yankees in the opener of this season-ending series with the Tampa Bay Rays last night but while that one came up short, I absolutely expect the home side to bounce back on Saturday. The Yankees have been streaky all year, as they are 8-2 in their last 10 games (counting last night's loss) and that run comes on the heels of them losing 15 of 22. They nearly pulled off a comeback against Tampa Bay's Andrew Kittredge in the ninth inning, but Gary Sanchez and Rougned Odor struck out with two on after Joey Gallo and Brett Gardner hit RBI singles. "We want to clinch, that'd be nice, but we have two more games to do that," Gallo said. "We control our own destiny, but that's up to us." New York's Giancarlo Stanton had two hits, including an RBI single, and he has driven in 14 runs in his past seven games. The starters for Saturday are rookie Shane Baz (2-0, 1.69 ERA) for Tampa Bay and Jordan Montgomery (6-6, 3.49 ERA) for New York. The Pirates selected Baz with the 12th overall pick of the 2017 Major League Baseball draft. He was acquired by Tampa Bay from the Pittsburgh Pirates (2018) in the trade that also landed Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows in exchange for Chris Archer (pretty big haul for the Rays, right?). He was promoted to the major leagues until September 20, 2021, to make his debut that same night at Tropicana Field. He started against the Toronto Blue Jays and threw five innings in which he gave up two earned runs on two hits (both were home runs) while striking out five. He followed with 5.2 scoreless innings against Miami in a 3-2 win. Montgomery is 1-0 with a tiny 1.65 ERA over his past three starts and has now given up one earned run or less in 15 of his 29 starts (Yanks are 17-12 in those starts). That includes each of his last three starts vs Tampa Bay, when he's allowed just two ERs over 17.1 innings for a 1.04 ERA (Yanks have won ALL three). Baz has been great in his first two MLB starts (14-1 KW ratio / 0.56 WHIP and .135 BAA) but this is his first road start and it comes in 'The House that Ruth Built." Tough assignment for the young pitcher. Yanks win (note: they are 8-4 in Montgomery's home starts) and clinch a wildcard spot. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-02-21 | Michigan +2.5 v. Wisconsin | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 96 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye Opener is on Michigan (12:00 EST). Wisconsin opened the season ranked No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll but by the end of September, the Badgers have already lost TWICE, and fallen out of the top-25. Wisconsin is NOT alone. In fact, the list is pretty long of preseason top-25 teams no longer in the latest rankings (Sep 26). No. 7 Iowa St, No. 10 North Carolina, No. 14 Miami-Fl, No. 15 USC, No. 16 LSU, No. 17 Indiana, No. 20 Washington, No. 21 Texas, No. 23 ULL, No. 24 Utah and No. 26 ASU, also join Wisconsin. That's a "baker's dozen" of 13 teams! Meanwhile, coming off a 2-4 COVID-19 shortened season in which Michigan was just 2-4, many were surprised that Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh survived. In fact, he's done more than just survive, as his Wolverines have opened 4-0 and are currently ranked No. 14. How about this for a stat. Michigan has opened 4-0 (and has yet to be behind in any game so far), for the first time since 1973! Michigan gained 789 rushing yards in 2020's six games (131.5 YPG on 4.0 YPC) but has already run for 1,163 through its first four games of 2021, an average of 290.8 YPG on 6.3 YPC). RB Corum has 475 yards (6.9 YPC and 7 TDs) and fellow RB Haskins has 322 yards (5.3 YPC and 6 TDs). QB McNamara has thrown for a modest 534 yards and three TDs but has yet to be intercepted in 53 attempts. Michigan's D is allowing just 11.8 PPG (4th) on 303.3 YPG (32nd). Wisconsin's 41-13 loss at Soldier Field last Saturday against Notre Dame was deceiving, as the Badgers led 13-10 in the early 4th quarter, before the Irish scored the game's final 31 points (one score came a 96-yard KO return and two more on INT returns). However, what's not deceiving is that in its two 'tests' in September, the Badgers have scored just THREE points in the 4th quarter of each game. Remember QB Graham Mertz completing 20 of 21 for 248 yards with 5 TDs in his first-ever start (Oct 27 of 2020)? Metz is unrecognizable these days, throwing FOUR interceptions against Notre Dame. The Wisconsin offense has scored just 23 points vs Penn St and Notre Dame and as noted, Michigan's D has been terrific. Wisconsin imploded in the fourth quarter last weekend, finishing just 1 of 14 overall on third downs while also posting a whopping five turnovers. Wisconsin's D has been excellent, as Notre Dame's defense and special teams scored 21 of the 41 points last Saturday and is allowing just 210.3 YPG, ranking 2nd in the nation. However, Wisconsin will need to bring its "A game" vs Michigan and I don't see that happening against a rejuvenated Michigan team. Could this be the year Harbaugh finally beats Ohio St? I'm getting ahead of myself. Go Big Blue! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-02-21 | Minnesota +2.5 v. Purdue | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 6 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Minnesota at 12:00 ET. Minnesota hired PJ Fleck off his excellent run at Western Michigan (remember the 'Row the Boat' team of 2017 that went 12-0 before losing in the Cotton Bowl?).In his second season with the gophers, Minnesota went 7-6 after a bowl win and then in 2019, went 11-2 with a bowl win that left them 10th in the final polls. 2020 was a tough year for all (3-4) and Minnesota has opened just 2-2 here in 2021. The Gophers visit Purdue, coming off the worst FBS over FBS upset since 2012 last week, losing 14-10 as a 31-point favorite to Bowling Green. Things CAN'T get worse from here, right? Jeff Brohm became a 'hot' coaching commodity by leading Western Ky to a 30-10 record in three seasons and moved to Purdue. The Boilermakers went 6-6 in each of his first two seasons, winning a bowl game the first season (7-6) and losing the following season (6-7). Purdue fell to 4-6 in 2019 and was 2-4 in "The Year of COVID" in 2020. Purdue takes a 3-1 record into this game, losing only 27-13 at now-No. 9 Notre Dame. Tanner Morgan has played well at times for the Gophers the last few seasons but was just PUTRID vs Bowling Green, completing 5 of 13 for 59 yards with two INTs and a lost fumble. However, RB Treyson Potts, ran for 141 yards and has 474 yards on the season (4.9 YPC / five TDs). The defense has held its own, allowing 21.3 PPG (55th) on 272.8 YPG (14th). However, winning the defensive battle against Purdue won't be easy, as the Boilermakers are allowing 14.3 PPPG (8th) on 301.0 YPG (29th). QB Plummer has completed 69.5% for 840 yards with seven TDs and no INTs but Brohm benched him one series into the third quarter last week. Aidan O'Connell entered and later guided the team 94 yards on 10 plays to score the game's lone touchdown in the fourth quarter of an unimpressive 13-9 win over Illinois. O'Connell completed 6 of 8 passes for 89 yards on the game-winning drive, including a 14-yard TD pass with 5:44 left. Brohm has declined to name a starter for Saturday. The Boilermakers are off to their best start since 2012 and are on the cusp of going 2-0 in league play for the first time since 2010. All this, despite losing their top-two running RBs to injuries along with their top receiver, David Bell (21 catches with three TDs), who was in concussion protocol against Illinois and his status here is up in the air. Getting back to that running game, Purdue is averaging 92.5 YPG on 2.9 YPC! Here's the bottom line. I like Minnesota to bounce back off that humbling loss to Bowling Green and why not? After all, the Gophers have won SEVEN of the last eight against Purdue, including the last time the team met here at Purdue (2019), when Morgan completed 21 of 22 for 396 yards and four TDs (how's that for a confidence-builder). This seems like a GREAT spot to take Minnesota, as Purdue has gone 0-6 ATS in its last six Ben Ten games. Minnesota gets the outright win. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-01-21 | BYU -7.5 v. Utah State | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 80 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on BYU at 9:00 ET. BYU surprised all by going 11-1 (9-3 ATS) in 2020 (finished 11th in the final coaches' poll) and are making a strong case that the Cougars are going to be pretty good in 2021, as well. Jaren Hall beat out Baylor Romney for the starting QB job and had BIG shoes to fill (Zach Wilson). Hall led the Cougars to a 3-0 start, passing for 561 yards (7 TDs / 2 INTs) plus ran for 166 yards (8.3 YPC). However, Hall took a hit with about a minute remaining in BYU's win over ASU and it was more serious than at first reported. Romney got the start last Saturday vs USF and threw for 305 yards and three TDs. At 4-0, BYU is now ranked 13th in the current AP poll. Utah St opened 3-0 (also 3-0 ATS), starting with three straight wins for the first time since 1978. QB Logan Bonner (959 passing yards / 7 TDs / 5 INTs) helps lead an offense averaging 533.3 YPG (10th), and is aided by a strong running game (213.5 YPG). However, the Aggies' defense is a liability, allowing 463.3 YPG (121st) and 29.8 PPG (101st). Whether it's Hall or Romney at QB, I like BYU and its defense, which is allowing 19.3 PPG. The BYU defense got overlooked last year as well, with Wilson leading an offense that averaged 43.5 PPG (Note: the Cougars' D allowed just 15.3 PPG in 2020). BYU is 16-4 SU vs Utah St since 1994 and when the Aggies 'stepped up in class' last week vs Boise St, the offense managed just THREE points, with Bonner completing only 11 of 25 for 173 yards with two INTs. Yes, Utah St is at home vs BYU (played at Boise St), but the Aggies are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 as a home dog. Cougars roll. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-01-21 | Indians -116 v. Rangers | Top | 9-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cle Indians at 7:00 ET. Neither the 78-81 Cleveland Indians nor the 59-100 Texas Rangers are headed to the playoffs. However, while the Indians are barely under .500 and own a run-differential of minus-14, the Rangers are 41 games under .500 with the fourth-worst run differential in MLB at minus-186. The Indians will send rookie right-hander Eli Morgan (4-7, 5.27 ERA) to the hill, who has quietly turned the corner with his performance of late. He was 2-1 with a 3.27 ERA in September. The Rangers counter with Spencer Howard (0-4, 7.04 ERA), who hasn't even come close to logging enough innings to even qualify for a win this season in seven starts. The Indians have posted their first non-winning season in NINE years, but Cleveland made five playoff appearances in that span, including losing the World Series to the Cubs in seven games back in 2016. Meanwhile, the Rangers have now missed the postseason for a fifth straight year, going 97 games under .500 in that span. Let's go Guardians. Get used to the new nickname! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees -118 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -118 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. Tampa Bay has secured the AL East Crown for the second straight season, as well as its position as the AL's top-seed throughout the playoffs. The only thing it can do in this final series of the year against the Yankees is to try and play spoiler. 91-68 New York welcomes the Rays to the Bronx with a two-game lead over the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners for the No. 1 wild card spot. The Yankees are 8-1 in their last nine after losing 15 of 22 and capped a 5-1 road trip with a 6-2 win at Toronto on Thursday. I'm NOT saying this ranks with the Red Sox/Yankees but these two teams have developed quite a rivalry in a relatively short time. The visitors hand the ball to Shane McClanahan (10-6, 3.44 ERA), who is 7-3 with a 2.83 ERA in 11 starts since the All-Star Break and leads Tampa Bay's traditional starters in wins. The home side counters with Nestor Cortes (2-2, 2.85), who will make his 14th start of 2021 and is 2-2 with a 3.01 ERA as a starting pitcher this year.McClanahan is 0-2 with a 6.75 ERA (seven earned runs in 9.1 innings) in two career starts against the Yankees, including his lone start at Yankee Stadium on June 2, when he allowed a career-high-tying four runs in 3.1 innings. Cortes started against the Rays in Tampa Bay back on July 28, when he allowed one run on three hits in five innings of New York's 3-1 victory. He does not have a decision and owns a 4.41 ERA in six career appearances (one start) against the Rays. Sure, the Rays would love to play the role of spoiler against the Yankees but the Rays could just as easily decide to rest some starters in preparation for a deep playoff run. I'm laying the very reasonable price here with a surging Yankees team! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-30-21 | Virginia +5 v. Miami-FL | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 55 h 51 m | Show | |
My 9* CFB Game of the Week is on Virginia at 7:30 ET. Virginia and Miami are both 2-2 but this is the ACC opener for Miami, UVA has beaten William and Mary 43-0 and Illinois 42-14, while losing to ACC rivals North Carolina 59-39 (allowed 699 yards!) and 37-17 to Wake Forest (Demon Deacons are 4-0). As for Miami, the 'Canes have lost 44-13 to Alabama at a neutral site and 38-17 to Mich St at home. Miami 'escaped; at home 25-23 over Appalachian St (on a FG with about two minutes left) and then routed Central Connecticut St 69-0 (should that even count?). Bronco Mendenhall led BYU to 11 bowls in 11 seasons and after a 2-10 season in his first year at UVA, led the Cavs to three straight bowls before 2020's 5-5 finish. The ACC Coastal was considered wide-open in 2021 but the Cavs are pretty much out of it, after an 0-2 start. UVA has a very talented QB in Brennan Armstrong, who has thrown for 1,705 yards, 13 TDs and three INTs (UVA is No. 1 in the nation, averaging 403.5 YPG). However, the ground game is averaging only 114.8 YPG (110th) and the team doesn't have a RB with 100 yards on the season, after FOUR games. Unlike UVA, Miami was ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll but has joined 12 other preseason top-25 teams that are no longer ranked, before October. The 'Canes have a talented dual-threat QB in D'Eriq King. He has passed for 767 yards (3 TDs / 4 INTs) but has just 96 yards rushing. He has greatly underachieved, as Miami was able to score just 30 points (15.0 PPG) in games vs Alabama and Mich St. King missed Miami’s win over Central Connecticut State, an FCS program, last Saturday due to a shoulder injury he sustained during the Hurricanes’ loss Michigan State the previous weekend. He is among multiple starters who are questionable for UM’s ACC-opener versus Virginia on Thursday at Hard Rock Stadium. Second-year freshman QB Tyler Van Dyke started against Central Connecticut State while splitting reps with true freshman Jake Garcia. Van Dyke went 10 of 11 for 270 yards and three TDs in his first start at the collegiate level, while Garcia went 11 of 14 for 147 yards and two TDs, and had a 45-yard run in his first college game. “First we’re trying to see D’Eriq’s availability,” head coach Manny Diaz said when asked about UM’s quarterback situation versus the Cavaliers. “I mean he’s improving and feeling better every day and was able to move around a little bit [on Monday] so we’ll see where he’s at with that.” King or no King, I want no part of Miami. I believe UVA behind QB Brennan Armstrong can give Miami's defense fits (it has allowed 41.0 PPG against Alabama and Mich St, while its offense has scored just 15.0 PPG against that duo). Miami is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games and not counting last Saturday's game vs an FCS school. Miami's been a HUGE underachiever. How did Miami 'earn' a No. 14 preseason ranking? Upset alert! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-21 | Brewers +110 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 110 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Brewers at 7:45 ET.
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09-29-21 | Nationals v. Rockies -109 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Getaway Day Game of the Week is on the Col Rockies at 3:10 ET. The Rockies and Nationals have long ago been eliminated from postseason consideration and will play the "rubber match" of their three-game series this afternoon at Coors Field. The Rockies broke a five-game slide with last night's 3-1 victory, moving to 47-33 at home (Note: Rockies' home moneyline record of +$1,629 is the best in MLB!). NOTHING about the Nats' 2021 season can be described by the word best. Washington is 65-93 overall, including 30-50 on the road. The visitors hand the ball to Paolo Espino, who is 5-5 with a 4.01 ERA. He entered this season with just 30 innings of work in his MLB career, posting a 5.10 ERA. He's made 34 appearances in 2021, including 18 starts but while his home ERA is a respectable 3.36, his road ERA is an 'ugly' 5.23. Welcome to Coors Field, Paolo. The home side counters with Peter Lambert (0-0, 4.91 ERA). Lambert was promoted to the major leagues by Colorado on June 6, 2019. He made his debut that same day at Wrigley Field vs the Chicago Cubs, giving up one run over seven innings while striking out nine, leading the Rockies to a 3-1 win. In 19 starts for Colorado, Lambert finished with a 3-7 record. In late July 2020, Lambert underwent Tommy John surgery and would miss the 2020 season. Lambert gave up two runs over four innings against the hard-hitting Giants on Friday. It was his first big league start since Tommy John surgery. "I felt good," Lambert said. "I wasn't exactly as sharp as I would've liked to have been. A few badly located fastballs in fastball counts, and they took advantage." I expect Lambert to go deeper in today's start and see no reason to expect that Espino's 5.23 road ERA will improve here in his first-ever start at hitter-friendly Coors Field. It's my read that there is GREAT value on Colorado, which is playing its final game of 2021 in front of its fans. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-28-21 | Rays v. Astros -130 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout is on the Hou Astros at 8:10 ET. The 95-59 Tampa Bay Rays have now clinched the AL East for the second season in a row and now set their sights on clinching the Al's No. 1 seed, as they open a three-game series over the 91-65 Houston Astros. All the Rays need to clinch the AL's best record is ONE win here vs the Astros. The Rays know the Astros well, as they opened a 3-0 lead over Houston in last year's ALCS, only to see Houston, despite its 29-31 regular season record, extend the Rays to a Game 7. The visitors hand the ball to Michael Wacha (3-5, 5.49 ERA). Wacha is coming off his first relief stint following 12 consecutive starts during which he went 2-3 with a 5.82 ERA. Wacha's days as a quality starter are over. Jose Urquidy (8-3, 3.56 ERA) has the starting assignment for the Astros and is 2-0 with a 4.34 ERA over four starts (Astros are 3-1) since his return from a two-month stint on the injured list with right shoulder discomfort. | |||||||
09-28-21 | Phillies +116 v. Braves | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 the NL East is on the Phi Phillies at 7:20 ET. We hear a lot lately about Seattle's push to end MLB's longest playoff drought (19 years since 2001) but the second-longest active playoff drought belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies, who own a NINE-year drought. The current NL East standings look like this. The Braves, winners of the division in each of the last three seasons, are 83-72 and the Phillies are 81-75, 2 1/2-games back. Philadelphia's best (only?) shot of closing in on the Braves will be in this three-game series.
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09-28-21 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -120 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:07 ET. There is "no rest for the weary" in this last week of the regular season. The Yankees swept the hated-Red Sox at Fenway Friday thru Sunday, as 89-67 New York took over the No. 1 wild card spot, one game ahead of the 88-68 Red Sox. However, after taking Monday off, the Yankees visit Toronto for the opener of a three-game series tonight. The 87-69 Blue jays are just TWO games behind the Yankees and ONE game behind the Red Sox. The Yankees lost seven straight from Sep 4-10, went 5-4 over their next nine games but now enter on a six-game winning streak. As for the Jays, they are 20-8 since Aug 28, including winning all FOUR at Yankee Stadium from Sep 6-9. The Yankees will start Jameson Taillon (8-6, 4.41 ERA) tonight, who has been on the injured list since Sep 7 (right ankle tendon). He took the loss Sep. 6 against Toronto after allowing three runs and four hits in seven innings. It was his second straight loss after going undefeated in a career-high 15 straight starts from June 5-Aug 26 (he was 7-0 and the team 11-4). The Blue Jays will go with Hyun Jin Ryu (13-9, 4.34 ERA), who has been on the IL since Sept. 18 (tight neck). Ryu is just 2-4 with a 8.10 ERA in his last eight starts (Jays are 4-4). Ryu was not in great form prior to going on the IL but he is 2-0, 1.88 ERA, in four starts this season against the Yankees (Jays are 3-1). Getting Ryu from the Dodgers prior to the 2020 season was a great move. He's their 'go-to' guy and I expect him to come up big here, catching the Yankees off that three-game sweep at Fenway. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-27-21 | Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-41 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 8:15 ET. The Eagles opened with a 32-6 road win over Atlanta in Week 1 and then lost a 17-11 home game to the 49ers. As for the Cowboys, they lost 31-29 on a FG with two seconds left at Tampa Bay in 2021's first game and then beat the Chargers 20-17 in LA on a 56-yard FG on that game's final play. The two longtime rivals meet tonight in Dallas and with both at 1-1, the winner will take over 1st-place in the NFC 'Least,' as Washington has opened 1-2 and the NY Giants 0-3.
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09-26-21 | Packers +3 v. 49ers | Top | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET. The Packers were embarrassed 38-3 in Week 1 vs New Orleans (played in Jacksonville because of Hurricane Ida). Aaron Rodgers threw for just 133 yards with two INTs and zero TDs (QB rating of 36.8!) in what was the worst loss of his career. No one should have been surprised that Rodgers bounced back this past Monday Night, especially against the Lions. The Packers pulled away for a 35-17 win (won send-half 21-0) with Rodgers completing 22 of 27 for 255 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 145.8). The Packers travel to San Francisco Sunday night for a game vs the 2-0 49ers, who have opened with road wins of 41-33 at Detroit and 17-11 at Philadelphia. Jimmy G threw for 314 vs the Lions but only 189 vs the Eagles. The good news is that he has not thrown an INT in 55 attempts. RB Mitchell ran for 104 yards (5.5 YPC) against Detroit but then only 42 yards on 17 carries (2.5 YPC) vs Philly. San Francisco is averaging just 69.5 YPG on the ground (23.0 YPC) but expect Aaron Jones to "get going" and solve that 'problem. Jones is off back-to-back 1,000 rushing season (25 TDs) plus has caught 96 passes for five more TDs. Jones caught three short TD passes from Rodgers Monday night and added a fourth on the ground. Don't worry about the Green Bay running game. Turning to San Francisco's running game, "Houston (San Francisco), we have a problem!" After losing starter Raheem Mostert to a season-ending knee injury during its opener at Detroit, San Francisco then saw JaMycal Hasty go down with a high ankle sprain in last week's 17-11 win at Philadelphia. Hasty is likely to wind up on short-term injured reserve, which would require him to miss at least three weeks. What's more, rookies Elijah Mitchell (shoulder) and Trey Sermon (head) were also dinged up last week. Head coach Kyle Shanahan said Mitchell is day-to-day, while Sermon is in concussion protocol but could play Sunday. The 49ers have opened 2-0 but this game with Green Bay opens a brutal three-game stretch in which San Francisco hosts Seattle and then plays at Arizona. Who do you want at QB, Rodgers or Jimmy G? Green Bay is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while San Francisco is a bank account draining 10-25-1 ATS in its last 36 games as a favorite. San Francisco returns home for the first time this year and I think, 'lays an egg!' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Sunday Night Game of the Mont is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:08 ET. The Yankees won 8-3 Friday night at Fenway but trailed 2-1 in the eighth inning of Saturday's contest before Giancarlo Stanton crushed a grand slam over the Green Monster, giving the Yanks a 5-3 win and moving them into a tie with the Red Sox at the top of the AL's wild card standings at 88-67. The No. 1 team gets to host the No. 2 team in a one-game, winner-take-all playoff for the chance to move on to the AL Division Series, where the Tampa Bay Rays will be waiting. Cleary, tonight's result is HUGE but not just for the Yanks and Red Sox, but also for Toronto (two games back) and Seattle (three games back). Handicapping the race, the Red Sox have a MUCH easier road in the season's last week, as they embark on a six-game road trip against cellar dwellers in the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals. Meanwhile, the Yankees will visit the Blue Jays after Sunday's series finale before ending their season hosting the first-place Tampa Bay Rays. The Yanks probably need the game more but the LAST thing that Boston wants is to get swept at home against New York this slate in the season. Jordan Montgomery (6-6, 3.55 ERA) gets the nod for the Yankees, while Eduardo Rodriguez (11-8, 4.97 ERA) gets the call for the Red Sox. Montgomery gave up one run and struck out six over six innings in a 7-1 victory over the lowly Rangers on Tuesday. However, it was just his SECOND win since July 27th. Over his last EIGHT starts, he's posted a 2.93 ERA but the Yanks are just 4-4 in those games. Rodriguez was a big MONEY-MAKER for the Red Sox in 2018 and 2019 (team was 45-12, +$1,712 in his starts) but he sat out in 2020. He's back to 'making money' for backers here in 2021, going 18-11, +$540. E-Rod is EXACTLY the starting pitcher the Red Sox want on the mound tonight in trying to salvage the series finale. He is 8-6 with a 3.73 ERA in 22 games (20 starts) lifetime against New York, including going 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in four starts versus the Yankees this year. Meanwhile, Montgomery is 0-2 with a 3.63 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox this season and 1-2 with a 3.91 ERA in 10 starts (Yanks are 4-6) for his career. Boston avoids the home sweep and sets its sights on clinching the No. 1 wild card sp0t at Baltimore and Washington! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-21 | Seahawks v. Vikings UNDER 56 | Top | 17-30 | Win | 100 | 118 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* Featured NFL Sunday O/U is on Sea/Min Under at 4:25 ET. 1-1 Seattle pulled away for a 28-16 win at Indianapolis in Week 1 but then blew a 14-point 4th quarter lead at home last Sunday in a 33-30 OT loss to Tennessee. Minnesota is 0-2 but is just two plays away from being 2-0. The Vikings lost 27-24 in OT at Cincy in Week 1 and at Arizona last Sunday, missed a 37-yard FG on the game's final play. The Vikings are at home for the first time in 2021 this Sunday against Seattle. QBs Russell Wilson and Kirk Cousins are both off to great starts with Wilson completing 74.1% for 597 yards with six TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 146.9 is No. 1). Cousins is completing 71.6% for 595 yards with five TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 112.9. The duo has combined to attempt 135 passes through the season's first two weeks and neither has thrown a SINGLE interception. Considering Seattle's defense ranks 30th in allowing 434.0 YPG and Minnesota is allowing 420.0 YPG (28th), maybe this is a 'dead-nuts' Over! Then again, maybe the Over is not such an easy call. The Seahawks have won SIX straight regular-season games against the Vikings, including a 27-26 victory last year in Seattle on a 6-yard TD pass from Russell Wilson to DK Metcalf with six seconds remaining. In fact, I think we'll witness another tight battle here as well, but I also expect a lower final combined score. The Vikings have played two consecutive games decided by a FG attempt on the game's final play, with the Vikings coming out on the 'wrong' side of the make and miss. An 0-3 start all but ends any playoff hopes Minnesota brought into the season and Seattle sure wants/needs to move to 2-1, as the other three teams in the NFC West have all opened 2-0. Seattle is at the 49ers next week and the is home to the Rams the following week. Expect a competitive game and a final score that stays Under the total. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-21 | Mariners +133 v. Angels | Top | 5-1 | Win | 133 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Mariners at 4:07 ET. The 86-59 Seattle Mariners are three games behind the AL's second wild card spot and with just SEVEN games left to their season, will need a STRONG finish (and get some help) to reach the postseason for first since 2001. As for the Angels, despite owning two of MLB's marquee stars (Trout and Ohtani), they will sit out the postseason for the SEVENTH straight year and for the 11th time in the last 12! Seattle can only take it "one game at a time" and Sunday, the Mariners send Marco Gonzales (9-5, 4.14 ERA) to the mound to oppose the aforementioned Shohei Ohtani (9-2, 3.28 ERA). Seattle's Chris Flexen owns MLB's best moneyline mark (+$1,458) but Gonzales could be the team's hottest starter. His last loss came back on July 3, with him going 8-0 over his last 13 stars (team is 10-3). In that span, got a 2.95 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP spanning 79.1 innings (he's posted a quality start in EIGHT of his last 10 trips to the mound). There was talk the Angels were going shut down Ohtani for the last two weeks of the season, after he allowed nine hits and six ERs over 3.1 innings at Houston on Sep 10. However, he was back on the mound Sep 19, pitching eight innings and allowing just two ERs with 10 Ks. Ohtani is a MAJOR talent at bat and on the mound but his 9-2 W/L mark is somewhat deceiving, as the Angels are a more modest 13-9, +$57 in his 22 starts Getting back to Gonzales, he's 8-1 with a 3.62 ERA in 16 career starts vs the Angels (team is 12-4). Then there is Seattle's +$3,419 moneyline record, which trails only the 101-win Giants' by $27! Note, the Giants are 16 games BETTER than Seattle in the standings. Compare that to LA's -$517 moneyline mark and we see an almost $4,000 difference. GREAT value with Gonzales and Seattle! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-21 | Dolphins +4.5 v. Raiders | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 4:05 ET. The RAY-DAHs are 2-0 SU & ATS, while the FISH are 1-1 SU/ATS. Las Vegas won Week 1's MNF game 33-27 over Baltimore in an OT thriller and then posted an impressive 26-17 road win at Pittsburgh in Week 2. Miami was outplayed at New England in Week 1 but came away with a 17-16 win but then returned home to host the Bills and got humbled in a 35-0 loss.
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09-26-21 | Rangers v. Orioles -119 | 7-4 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* "1st Pitch" is on the Bal Orioles at 1:05 ET. The 56-99 Texas Rangers and the host Baltimore Orioles (50-105) wrap up a four-game series Sunday afternoon. One can see by their respective records, that there is NOTHING on the line in this contest. However, there is a 'winner in EVERY game' and here I believe it's Baltimore.
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09-26-21 | Saints v. Patriots -2.5 | Top | 28-13 | Loss | -118 | 105 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* "Signature" LEGEND Play is on the NE Patriots at 1:00 ET. Non-conference matchups are always interesting and this particular one in New England on Sunday definitely is. The Saints looked brilliant in their 38-3 win in Week 1 over the Packers in Jacksonville (moved because of the hurricane) but fell flat in their 26-7 Week 2 loss at Carolina. Welcome to Jameis Winston's 'world.' The 2013 Heisman winner completed 14 of 20 for a modest 148 yards vs Green Bay but threw five TD passes (QB rating was 130.8!). However, last Sunday in Carolina, Winston completed 11 of 21 for a puny 111 yards without a TD pass and two INTs (QB rating of 26.9!). The Tampa Bay ground game isn't much (109.5 YPG to rank 17th) plus the defense that was so brilliant against Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 (handed Rodgers his worst loss as a pro), showed NONE of that form against the legendary Sam Darnold, who led Carolina to 28 FDs and threw for 305 yards with two TDs.
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09-26-21 | Falcons v. Giants -2.5 | Top | 17-14 | Loss | -120 | 68 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* 'Losers Night Out' play is on the NYG at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and Giants have both opened 0-2 and likely both believe this is a "game they can win!" The Falcons have lost 32-6 at home to the Eagles and then 48-25 at Tampa Bay. It doesn't take a degree from MIT to figure out that the Falcons are allowing 40.0 PPG, which is the most of any team. The Giants opened with a 27-13 home loss to the Broncos and then lost in Week 2's Thursday night game at Washington, 30-29. I'm sure ALL remember that the Giants offsides penalty at the end, gave Washington a second attempt at the game-winning FG and you know the rest. "Matty Ice" began 2021 having passed for 4,000-plus yards the previous 10 seasons but with WR Julio Jones now longer around and a running game that averages 89.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC, it figures to be a L-O-N-G season. Ryan is completing 69.1% but he's thrown just two TD passes and a QB rating of 76.4 (offense is averaging just 15.5 PPG, ranking 30th of 32 teams). One week after getting clobbered at home by the Eagles, the Falcons got smashed last weekend in Tampa, giving up 20 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. Giants QB Daniel Jones is a 'tough cookie.' He's completing 63.8% for 516 yards with two TDs and not a single INT in 70 attempts. He's run for 122 yards (8.1 YPC) and two TDs. Like Ryan, his running game hardly gives him any cover, as Barkley (36 attempts for 83 yards after two games, despite a 41-yard scamper vs Washington) seems to have gotten 'old' VERY quickly. Jones completed 22 of 32 for 249 yards with a TD pass, while also rushing for a career-high 95 yards against Washington and has scored a rushing TD in each of his first two games. Jones DESERVED to get a "W." Expect that "W' to come right here! OK, I realize that the Giants have lost more games than any team during the last FIVE years but the Falcons are a 'bottom-five' NFL team. Atlanta was 4-12 last season and now 0-2 to begin 2021. Let me also bring out the fact that the Falcons lost all three of their preseason games by a combined 49 points, despite trying to win! Did Atlanta really lead New England 28-3 in Super Bowl 51? The Falcons are the perfect opponent to get untracked against. It's time to open up the playbook in New York this weekend and get that 'W!" Here's a supporting trend. The Giants are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 vs clubs with losing records. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-21 | Washington Football Team +7.5 v. Bills | 21-43 | Loss | -114 | 22 h 26 m | Show | |
My 8* Super 26 Rematch is on the Was FB Team at 1:00 ET. This is not exactly a rematch of Super Bowl 26, when Washington bested Buffalo 37-24. Washington has opened with back-to-back home games, losing 20-16 to the LA Chargers and then beating the Giants 30-29 in Week 2 (Thursday Night Football). Most will remember that Washington got a "second chance" to kick the game-winning FG as time expired, when the Giants went offside on the first try (a miss). The second time was a charm! Washington is on the road Sunday to face the Bills, who are off a 13-3 season in 2020 in which they made it all the way to the AFC championship game where they lost to the Chiefs. Buffalo led Pittsburgh 10-0 into the 4th quarter in Week 1 but allowed 17 points, losing 27-16 to the Steelers. However, Buffalo handed the Dolphins a 35-0 beatdown in Miami in Week 2. QB Taylor Heinicke had to come in early in Week 1's game, replacing an injured Ryan Fitzpatrick, and he just wasn't able to get the job done. However, he completed 34 of 46 for 336 yards (two TDs / one INT) in the win over the Giants. RB Antonio Gibson has run for 159 yards on 4.8 YPC. Washington's defense led the NFL in allowing 18.5 PPG and also allowed the fewest YPG (281.9) last season. Expectations ran high for the team's D in 2021 (led by an imposing front-four) but so far, the unit has underachieved. Josh Allen had a career season in 2020, completing 69.2% for 4,544 yards with 37 TDs with just 10 INTs (107.2 rating). However, while he threw 51 passes in Week 1, he led the Bills to just 16 points. In Buffalo's 35-0 domination at Miami in Week 2, he was more of a bystander (17 of 33 for 179 yards with two TDs and one INT), as Buffalo's D held the Dolphins to 216 total yards, 13 FDs and ZERO points. Buffalo welcomes Washington to town allowing 11.5 PPG on 234.0 YPG (both figures rank 2nd in 2021). My feeling here is that Washington comes in under the radar. Ron Rivera's defense bent, but didn't break vs the Giants, who threw everything they had at their NFC East rivals. I'm a big Josh Allen fan but Old Dominion's Taylor Heinicke just may be MUCH better than anyone ever anticipated. Don't give up on Washington's D just yet plus note that Washington is on a 10-5-1 run as a road dog. Grab the TD or more. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-25-21 | Florida Atlantic v. Air Force -4 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 82 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Group of 5 Game of the Week is on Air Force at 8:00 ET. FAU lost 35-14 at Florida to open the season ('backdoor' cover) but has rebounded with two wins, 38-6 over Ga Southern and 45-14 over Fordham. The Owls are back on the road this Saturday at Colorado Springs to take on Air Force. The Falcons rolled to back-to-back victories at home against Lafayette (35-14) and 23-3 at Navy to open the season. However, Air Force is in bounce-back mode here after falling 49-45 to Utah State last weekend when RB Calvin Tyler Jr. raced 61 yards for the go-ahead TD with just under four minutes to play to lift Utah State to the win over in the Mountain West Conference opener for both teams. FAU head coach Willie Taggert is in his second season with FAU and his career has mirrored a ping pong game. He starred at Western KY as a QB and began his coaching career at Western Ky in 2010. He's since made stops at USF (four years), Oregon (one year) and two years at FSU. The good news is he has a good QB in N’Kosi Perry has 871 passing yards with 7 TDs and zero INTs. He's a Miami-Fl transfer and seems to like being a BIG 'fish' in 'small' pound. However, the running game averages about 150 YPG less than that of Air Force. It's no surprise that Air Force averages 327.7 YPG (4th-best in the nation) on 5.2 YPC. QB Daniels showed some passing ability in the loss to Utah St (6 of 12 for 182 yards and one TD) plus is part of variety of players who contribute to the running game. Three players topped 100 yards rushing last Saturday (including Daniels) and on the season, WR Davis has run for 146 yards (10.7 YPC) with three rushing TDs. In stark contrast to Taggert, Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun is in his 15th season since following the legendary Fisher DeBerry (23 years). He led Air Force to 10 bowl games in his first 13 seasons, before the team went 2-2 in 2020's COVID-shortened season. Tough spot for FAU traveling cross-country to play in altitude, facing a strong home team coming off a late-game loss last Saturday. Air Force comes in 22-8 ATS in its last 30 non-conference games. Lay the points and EXPECT a decisive Air Force victory! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-25-21 | Indiana -9 v. Western Kentucky | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Indiana at 8:00 ET. Indiana head coach Tom Allen has made a HUGE difference to the football program, as after back-to-back 5-7 (2-7 in Big Ten play) seasons in 2010 and 2018, he's led the Hoosiers to back-to-back bowl games. Indiana went 8-5 in 2019 and 6-2 in 2020's pandemic-shortened season. The Hoosiers were 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in Big Ten play but then lost to a 4-5 Ole Miss team 26-20 (as a 9 1/2-point favorite) in the Outback Bowl. Indiana opened the season ranked 17th (the school's first top-25 preseason appearance since 1968), However, Indiana hasn't gotten off to the start it wanted in 2021. That said, Indiana's two losses have come against No. 5 Iowa (34-6) and No. 8 Cincinnati (38-24). In between, the Hoosiers hammered Idaho 56-14.
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09-25-21 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -5.5 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 101 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 7:00 ET. Kansas St and Oklahoma St meet Saturday in Stillwater in the Big 12 opener for each school. Both a 3-0 with the Wildcats looking a little bit better than the Cowboys so far. Kansas State is off a 38-17 home win over Nevada last Saturday, after opening with a neutral site win over Stanford (24-7) and an unimpressive home win over Southern Illinois (31-23). Neither of Kansas St's two QBs, Skyar Thompson or Will Howard have looked overly impressive, However, RB Vaughn has run for 371 yards on 8.0 YPC with five TDs (he rushed for a career-best 218 yards in last Saturday). Oklahoma AB Spencer Sanders is well thought of but so far has underachieved. He missed the season opener and in two games back has been nothing special He was just 6 of 13 for 82 yards at Boise St but he has run for 102 yards in his two games, scoring a rushing TD at Boise. Mike Gundy starred at Stillwater as a QB and returned to coach his alma mater in 2005. He went just 4-7 (1-7 in Big 12 play) in his 'freshman year' but has led Okie St to 15 straight bowl appearances since then (10-5). His 2011 team was 12-1 (No. 3 finish in the AP poll) and he's produce five other season of 10-plus wins. Chris Klieman had the unenviable task of taking over for the legendary Bill Snyder and after an 8-5 first season, was 4-6 in 2020. This will be K-Sate's first true road game and Kieman has yet to beat the Cowboys, falling 26-13 in 2019 and 20-18 in Manhattan last year. Kansas St has home games vs Oklahoma (No. 4) and Iowa St (No. 14) up next. Could the visitors get caught looking ahead? Oklahoma St is 3-0 but hasn't yet but together an "A effort," as the Cowboys have won their first three games by a total of just 13 points. However, I see one coming. Going back to OSU's 'magical' season of 2011 (see above), the Cowboys are 50-15 SU at Boone Pickens Stadium and they are currently on a 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 against teams with winning records, Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-25-21 | Royals v. Tigers -122 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Det Tigers at 6:10 ET. Two teams that won't be in the playoffs collide on Saturday, when the Royals play the Tigers on Saturday. The KC Royals have faded since a surprising 16-9 start and at 70-83, will miss the playoffs for the SIXTH straight season. KC won the series opener 3-1 last night, dropping the Tigers to 74-79. That said, Detroit fans have to be happy that the Tigers are MUCH more respectable this season, after losing 98, 98 and 114 games from 2017 thru 2019, then going 23-35 (.397) in 2020's COVID-shortened season. The team's .487 win percentage is a big improvement plus the team's moneyline mark of plus-$2,435 is the THIRD-best in MLB! The Royals will hand the ball to Jon Heasley (0-1, 9.00 ERA), who gave up four runs off six hits (including two HRs) over four innings in his big league debut against the Mariners a week ago Friday (9/17). He was a late replacement for Brady Singer When Heasley delivered his first pitch, he became the FIFTH Royals pitcher selected in the 2018 draft to pitch for the big league club. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2021 Royals are the first team in MLB history to have five pitchers from the same draft class start a game in one season. The Tigers will counter with Tarik Skubal (8-12, 4.25 ERA) who has posted 162 strikeouts over 142 innings this year. His record belies how well he's pitched since Aug 1. He's made eight starts and while he's 2-2 and the team just 4-4, here is a 'deeper' look. He allowed six ERs in an 8/31 start vs the A's but in his other seven starts since Aug 1, he's allowed two ERs or less in EACH one (2.27 ERA!). The Royals have won all four of their meetings with the Tigers since the All-Star break but I'll back Skubal (owns a 3.72 home ERA), as the Tigers stop their recent slide against the Royals. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-25-21 | Astros v. A's +111 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 111 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET. Oakland broke a FOUR-game slide with a big 14-2 win in yesterday's series opener against the Astros. It was a much-needed win, after Oakland lost all four games (at home!) to Seattle to open the week. The A's won the AL West last season but have fallen EIGHT games behind the division-leading Astros, who own a seemingly safe six-game lead over the Mariners with just nine days left in the regular season. Oakland's only hope of playing baseball after Oct 3 is to somehow earn a wild card spot. However, that too seems unlikely, as the A's are FIVE back of the Red Sox (No. 1) and FOUR back of the NY Yankees (No. 2). Houston was just 29-31 last season (yet made it all the way to Game 7 of the ALCS before losing) and would surely like to clinch the AL's No. 2 seed, so the Astros could host the White Sox.The visiting side hands the ball to Framber Valdez (11-5, 3.07 ERA), who is off a good start over the Angels, going seven scoreless and striking out six. Previous to that, Valdez had posted two straight starts in which he surrendered four ERs in each outing. The Astros are 13-7 in his 20 starts in 2021 but in his lone start vs the A's, he allowed six runs (five earned) on 10 hits ERs over five innings! Oakland goes with Sean Manaea (10-10, 4.05 ERA), who is coming off an outing to forget against the Mariners on Monday (allowed four runs over three innings). The A's think highly of this lefty, who won 12 games in both 2017 and 2018. In September of 2018 he was ruled out for the season and for the 2019 season as well, due to shoulder surgery. Manaea did spend the majority of the 2019 season rehabbing his shoulder but made his season debut on September 5 and was 4-0 with 1.21 ERA over five starts (team was 4-1). Manaea does not have a good lifetime record vs Houston but does own a highly respectable 3.60 ERA inn 17 lifetime starts against the hard-hitting Astros Did Oakland 'shoot its wad' with 14 runs in Friday's win? Not according to this stat. Oakland is a near-perfect 7-1 in its last eight after a 10 runs or greater victory in its previous outing! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-25-21 | Iowa State -6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 29-31 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Iowa St at 3:30 ET. Matt Campbell has led Iowa St to FOUR straight bowls. He led Iowa St to its first regular-season first-place finish of any sort in 119 years in 2020 and then the Cyclones were selected for the 2021 Fiesta Bowl, the first major-bowl appearance in school history, defeating Oregon 34-17 (BTW...It was CFB Game of the Year!). Iowa St finished ninth in both major bowls, the highest final ranking in school history. Iowa St was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll but was 'lucky to escape 16-10 over Northern Iowa in its opener and then lost its Cy-Hawk showdown vs Iowa (27-7), before routing a non-competitive UNLV team 48-3. Matt Rhule led Baylor to an 11-3 season in 2019 but then left for the NFL (Carolina Panthers). Getting his first-ever head coaching job was Dave Aranda, known as a defensive specialist. However, his first season went poorly in 2020's "Season of COVID," as the Bears would go just 2-7 (3-6). However, while 2-1 Iowa St is the ranked team in this matchup (14th), Baylor is the 3-0 team. Then again, the Bears' wins have come over Texas St, Texas Southern and 45-7 over Kansas, which is now a hard-to-believe 5-85 over its last 90 Big 12 games. Iowa St's two best offensive players are both off to slow starts. QB Brock Purdy (46-18 TD.INT ratio the last two seasons) may be completing 71.4% but he's thrown for a modest 625 yards with three TDs and three INTs. RB Breece Hall, who led the nation in rushing last season with 1,572 yards, while scoring 21 TDs, has run for just 238 yards (4.0 YPC) and four scores. However, the Iowa St defense has been terrific, allowing just 194.0 YPG (No. 1) and 13.3 PPG (14th) The Baylor defense is allowing 235.0 YPG (8th) and 11.3 PPG (10th) but as noted above, the competition lacks any quality opponents. The offense is averaging 46.7 PPG (5th) on 559.3 YPG (3rd) but again, consider the competition. QB Boharian has thrown for 664 yards with five TDs and zero INTs in 70 attempts. The Bears feature a strong running game (322.3 YPG ranks 5th) with Smith gaining 366 yards (7.8 YPC) and Ebner (317 yards (7.5 YPC). Baylor dominated this series going 7-2 from 2005-2016 but Iowa St has won THREE of the last four. Some may feel that Iowa St should NOT be this big of a favorite on the road but I disagree. This is Baylor's first real test of 2021 and I say its final grade by game's end will be an "F!" Lay it. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-25-21 | Clemson -9.5 v. NC State | 21-27 | Loss | -111 | 74 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Clemson at 3:30 ET.
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09-25-21 | LSU v. Mississippi State +2.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Mississippi State at 12:00 ET). LSU opened the season ranked 16th in the AP's preseason poll, despite coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-5 season in 2020. That came on the heels of LSU's magical 2019 season win in which the Tigers went 15-0 and won the national championship. The Tigers lost 38-27 at UCLA in their first game but LSU has bounced back with home wins of 34-7 over McNeese St and 49-21 over Central Michigan.
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09-24-21 | Mets v. Brewers -135 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET. Paul Goldschmidt homered twice and the Cardinals rallied from FIVE runs down for an 8-5 victory Thursday to extend their winning streak to 12 games. The Brewers jumped out to a 5-0 lead but the bullpen failed to hold it, wasting a quality start by Adrian Houser (allowed one run on five hits in six innings). The four-game sweep at the hands of the Cardinals means the Brewers have lost five in a row and seven of nine. Yes, the Brewers led the Central by 14 games back on Sep 12 but Milwaukee has already clinched a playoff spot and its magic number for clinching the division title is just three. Milwaukee needs to quickly regroup, refocus and get back on track to lock down the division crown. The Mets visit Milwaukee for three games this weekend and should play the perfect foil. New York was 48-40 at the All Star break but have lost SEVEN of eight to go just 25-39 since the break. That leaves them 7 1/2 games back of the Braves in the NL East and a whopping 10 games back in the wild card race (bye-bye). Rookie right-hander Tylor Megill (3-5, 4.57 ERA) takes the mound for the Mets, while Eric Lauer (6-5, 3.03 ERA) goes for Milwaukee. Megill made his MLB debut July 23 and by the end of July had made seven starts. He was just 100 but his ERA of 2.04 allowed the Mets to go 6-1. However, since that strong start, he's made nine starts, going 2-5 (team is 3-6) while posting a 6.55 ERA. Lauer is in his fourth season and it's the best of his career. He has a .216 BAA to go along with his solid 3.03 ERA and over his last 13 appearances (12 starts), he owns a 1.83 ERA. Milwaukee gets a MUCH-needed "W" in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-24-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry O/U Game of the Year is on the NYY/Bos Under at 7:10 ET. MLB's greatest rivalry adds to its legacy this weekend as the NY Yankees visit the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Part for a three-game series starting tonight. Here's the set-up. Only two games separate these teams in the wildcard race, as Boston is 88-65 and New York 86-67. However, Toronto lurks just ONE game back and Seattle, which last made the postseason in 2001), sits only two games back. And the Yankees have won three straight (7 of 10) but Boston has won SEVEN in a row (8 of 10). The Yankees hand the ball to ace Gerrit Cole (15-8, 3.03), who is coming off one of the worst outings this season, allowing seven runs off 10 hits over six innings. Meanwhile, Boston counters with Nathan Eovaldi (10-8, 3.58 ERA) who enters off an unfortunate no-decision to the Orioles on Sunday, striking out eight and allowing three runs off seven hits over five innings. Cole has worked 169.1 innings and comes down the stretch of the regular season with an elite 231/38 KW ratio and note that he's been at his best on the road this season, going 9-4 with a 2.96 ERA. Eovaldi was 9-5 at the All Star break but has earned just ONE win over his last 12 starts. However, he's posted a 2.27 ERA and 48/6 KW ratio over his last six starts plus owns a 2.99 ERA at Fenway, compared to a 4.62 ERA on the road. Tonight is a pivotal opener of this three-game series and it's my opinion that these two hurlers will garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. These teams have played under the total in SIX of their last seven meetings and everything points to that trend continuing here. This number is high and the play is on the under. Good luck...Larry |
Service | Profit |
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William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |