03-11-20 |
Georgia +4 v. Ole Miss | Top | 81-63 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Georgia at 7:00 ET.
Georgia and Ole Miss have each endured disappointing seasons, as both enter their first-round matchup in the SEC tournament Wednesday in Nashville at 15-16 on the season. Ole Miss went 6-12 in the SEC, so the Bulldogs enter the tourney as the no. 12 seed, while the Bulldogs' 5-13 record makes them the 13th-seed. Georgia closed February by winning three of its final four games but has dropped its final two contests, getting blown out 94-64 at LSU to end the regular season. Ole Miss knows a little about getting blown out themselves, losing 69-44 at in-state rival Miss St on Saturday, snapping a modest two-game winning streak.
Tom Crean had success at Marquette (five NCAAs, including a Final 4) and Indiana (four NCAAs, including three Sweet 16s) but his first season at Georgia (2018-19) produced an 11-21 record, including 2-16 in SEC play. This year's team went 10-3 in non-conference play as noted above, the SEC portion of its schedule went only slightly better than last year. 6-5 guard Anthony Edwards enters the postseason leading all freshmen nationally in scoring (19.5) and is 42 points shy of matching Jacky Dorsey’s school record for most points by a freshman (646). The 6-5 guard, who is a projected NBA lottery pick this summer, has scored 20-plus points 13 times and 30-plus points on three occasions. 6-9 Junior forward/center Rayshaun Hammonds averages 12.6 points and 7.3 rebounds and over his last four games is averaging 14.8 points and nine rebounds on 51.2 percent shooting. Freshman PG Wheeler, adds 8.8 & 4.4 APG plus senior guard Crump is averaging 6.9 PPG, while 6-8 freshman forward Camara chips in 6.5 & 4.4.
Kermit Davis spent 16 seasons at Middle Tenn St and led the Blue Raiders into the postseason in SEVEN of his final nine seasons at Murfreesboro. That included THREE trips to the Big Dance and his 2017 team won 31 games. He took over at Oxford last season and the Rebels were able to 'sneak' into the NCAA tourney but lost their first game, finishing 20-13. However, Year 2 has NOT gone as planned. Like Georgia, Ole Miss has a terrific guard in Breein Tyree, who comes in averaging 19.7 PPG (he landed on the All-SEC first team). Shuler (11.5-4.5-3.3) and Hinson (10.2 & 4.7) join Tyree in the backcourt, while the 6-7 Buffen (10.1 & 6.1) and the 6-10 Sy (9.1 & 5.4) are the team's top frontcourt producers.
Georgia will play without senior guard Tyree Crump (mononucleosis) but I still believe Georgia is the better team on a neutral court. Ole Miss went 1-8 SU on the SEC road and that LONE win came back on Jan 25 in Athens, 70-60. The Bulldogs will REMEMBER plus we are getting points!
Good luck...Larry
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03-11-20 |
St. John's -2.5 v. Georgetown | Top | 75-62 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Conference Rivalry Game of the Year is on St John's at 7:00 ET.
Georgetown and St. John's were once 'giants' in the Big East but when the two schools meet Wednesday in the first round Wednesday of the Big East Tournament, the longtime rivals will check in as the tourney's 8th and 9th seeds, respectively. Both teams enjoyed success out of conference this season as the Hoyas went 10-3 and the Red Storm were 11-2. However, that success didn't carry over to conference play, as each went 5-13.
Chris Mullin resigned after last season, ending a disappointing four-year run at his alma mater. The Red Storm posted losing records in his first three seasons but last year's team went 21-13 and did make an NCAA appearance (no small deal, as it was just this once-proud basketball program's THIRD Big Dance appearance in 17 years!). Taking over was Mike Anderson, who came to renown at UAB and Missouri, before returning to Arkansas. His eight-year run with the Razorbacks didn't go as planned, as the school made just three NCAA appearances. At the end of last year he was fired, marking the end of a 25-year association with Arkansas as both an assistant and head basketball coach. Anderson is 59-years-old and had NO connection to NYC, so he was a surprise choice. This is Patrick Ewing's third season at Georgetown and after a 15-15 'rookie' year, his Hoyas won 19 games last season but lost in the first round of the NIT. The good news entering the current season was, FOUR starters returned. Losing Jessie Govan (17.5 & 7.5) from last year was a big deal but what was NOT expected was that returning guard Akinjo played just seven games before deciding to transfer (he was averaging 13.4 & 4.4 APG) plus the 6-7 LeBlanc (averaging 7.2) also decided to transfer.
Julian Champagnie is a 6-7 freshman who has made an immediate impact. He comes in averaging 10.0 PPG and a team-high 6.5 RPG. He became the first St. John's player to be named to the All-Big East freshman team since Shamorie Ponds and Marcus Lovett in 2017. He enters the tourney having scored in double digits in SEVEN straight games and has averaged 19 points and 7.7 rebounds while shooting 52.5 percent from the floor in three March games. 6-6 sophomore forward Marcellus Earlington (8.7 & 4.5) has also produced when given enough minutes. 6-6 junior Figueroa (14.3 & 4.5) and 6-5 senior Heron (13.8) returned in the backcourt plus PG Dunn has delivered a solid season (12.0-3.7-3.8) after being given the OK to play (was a transfer from Cleveland St). However, Heron won't play here due to an ankle injury.
As for the Hoyas, they lost three quality players to transfer early in the season and have been without leading scorers Omer Yurtseven and Mac McClung for six and nine games, respectively, since early February. The 7-0 Omer Yurtseven was averaging 15.8 & 10.0 and guard McClung, 15.5 PPG. 'Carrying' Georgetown these days are guards Jahvon Blair (10.9 & 3.0), Terrell Allen (9.1 & 4.0 APG) and Jagan Mosely (8.4 & 4.5) in the backcourt plus the 6-8 Jamorko Pickett (10.1 & 6.2) and the 6-11 Qudus Wahab (5.4 & 4.2), up front. Blair has been the team's best player since McClung went out, averaging 17.6 points in the last 10 games
The Hoyas and the Red Storm have met on 115 occasions, including NINE times in the Big East Tournament. These two storied programs combined to win EIGHT of the first 10 Big East Tournament titles (six by Georgetown) but just ONE, since (by St. John's). It's safe to say the NEITHER will be around very long this week but Georgetown is a mere 'shell' of the team that opened the season back in November. The Hoyas are 2-0 vs St John's this season, including a win on Super Bowl Sunday here at MSG, when they overcame a 17-point second-half deficit to win, 73-72. St John's gets out to a lead tonight and DOESN'T 'let go!"
Good luck...Larry
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03-11-20 |
Washington v. Arizona -5 | Top | 70-77 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Arizona at 5:30 ET.
Sean Miller began his 10th season as the Arizona head coach during the 2018–2019 season but Arizona ended the season 17−15, missing the NCAA tournament for only the SECOND time in the previous 34 seasons. Miller's 11th season at Arizona featured a top-5 recruiting class and the Wildcats were ranked No. 21 in the AP's preseason. The Wildcats opened the season 9-0 and had the look of a team that could go far in the NCAA Tournament but inconsistent play has resulted in an 11-11 record since. Arizona finished 10-8 in Pac 12 play and enter the tourney as the No. 5 seed.
Mike Hopkins spent more than 20 years as an assistant to Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, before taking the job at Washington for the 2017-18 season. His first team won 21 games and an NIT berth but last year's team won 27 games and earned an NCAA bid. However, FOUR starters are gone from that team, including three NBA draft picks. That's never good but Hopkins recruited a pair of McDonald's All-Americans (big men Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels) plus added a third with the transfer of guard Quade Green from Kentucky. However, after a 10-2 start, the Huskies' season imploded. Quade Green was ruled academically ineligible after a Jan 5 win against USC and Washington has gone 4-12 without him.
The Huskies lost NINE straight from Jan 18-Feb 20 but they won their first two conference road games of the season last weekend in Arizona (over the Sun Devils and Wildcats) and have won three of four since that nine-game losing streak. 6-9 freshman Stewart (16.6 & 8.7) and McDaniels (13.1 & 5.8) have been as good as advertised. Stewart was named to the Pac-12 first team on Monday and McDaniels is the Pac-12 Freshman of the Week after he averaged 18 points, six rebounds, 2.5 blocks and a steal in last weekend's state of Arizona sweep. Senior guard Carter (12.5 & 5.0) is the team's third double digit scorer plus sophomore guard Jamal Bey went 16-for-17 from the free-throw line and totaled 23 points in the sweep of the Arizona schools, although his season average is just 5.8 PPG.
Arizona's 6-11 Zeke Nnaji was named Pac-12 Freshman of the Year after leading the conference with 14 double-doubles and leading the club in scoring (16.3) and rebounding (8.6). PG Nico Mannion, a 6-3 guard from Italy, was a second-team and all-freshmen team selection after averaging 14.0 PPG and 5.4 APG. He's already said he'll leave school after the season and he's projected to be an NBA lottery pick this summer. Josh Green, a 6-6 freshman guard, scored a total of 20 points in two games since missing two with a back injury, and enters the tourney averaging 11.7 & 4.6. That trio of freshman have led the way for Arizona but senior guard Smith (8.5) and 6-9 senior Gettings (6.7 & 4.2) have been regular contributors. 6-10 senior Jeter (6.8 & 4.3) is supposedly eligible to return from his suspension, but who really knows.
Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind' here but I just can't see Arizona NOT putting forth an excellent effort off Saturday's 'ugly' home loss to Washington, in which the Wildcats shot 35.1% and scored 63 points. Arizona sis shooting 44.8% on the season and averaging 76.4 PPG.
Good luck...Larry
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03-11-20 |
Fordham v. George Washington -2.5 | Top | 72-52 |
Loss | -115 | 23 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on George Washington at 3:30 ET.
The 8-22 Fordham Rams enter the A-10 conference tournament as the No. 14-seed, after finishing dead-last in the conference standings at 2-16. Awaiting the Rams at Barclays Center on Wednesday afternoon will be the 12-19 George Washington Colonials, who own the No. 11-seed after going 6-12 in conference play. The 'kicker' is, BOTH of Fordham's A-10 wins have come over GW.
The Rams lost the 6-9 Ohams (11.0 & 8.2) was lost for the season after just 13 games with a knee injury and then the 6-9 Eyisi (6.5 & 5.6) went down im mid-Feb with a foot injury. Fordham head coach Jeff Neubauer will start four guards and 6-11 freshman Soriano (4.5 & 6.4). Guards Portley (10.4 & 3.7) and Cobb (10.2) are now the team's lone double digits scorers for a team averaging only 58.1 PPG (349th).
Head coach Jamion Christian led Mount St Mary's to two NCAA berths in six years and then led Siena to a NINE-game turnaround in his only year at Loudonville, NY (2018-19). This is his first season at GW and last year's team was just 9-24. This year's team is better but has NOT had the success the school had hoped for. GW was 10-11 entering Feb but has finished the season in a complete 'free-fall,' losing EIGHT of its final 10 games. Not sure one can explain it, as the Colonials own four double digitscorers. Senior PG Potter (14.3-3.2-5.9) leads the way, followed by junior guard Jackson (11.8), freshman guard Nelson (10.4) and 6-7 freshman forward Battle (11.9 & 5.3).
How does a team lose TWICE to sad-sack Fordham. My bet says GW won't lose THREE times this season to the Rams.
Good luck...Larry
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03-11-20 |
Utah v. Oregon State -3.5 | Top | 69-71 |
Loss | -109 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Afternoon Delight is on Oregon St at 3:00 ET.
16-14 Utah and 17-13 Oregon St tip off the festivities in Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Arena on Wednesday afternoon as they meet in the 8-9 game of the Pac-12 tournament (both were 7-11 in league play). The winner will advance to Thursday's quarterfinals to face top-seeded Oregon. The Runnin’ Utes played just one game during the final week of the regular season, but it produced an emotional win as Utah rallied to stun rival Colorado 74-72 in overtime and secure the ninth seed. Meanwhile, the Beavers swept their regular season-ending homestand against Stanford and California to garner the eighth seed. Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak and his Oregon State counterpart (Wayne Tinkle), were teammates at Montana during the 1985 and ’86 seasons. The former teammates will meet for the 10th time as opposing head coaches (Krystkowiak owns a modest 5-4 advantage).
6-6 forward Timmy Allen is the team’s leading scorer (17.5) and rebounder (7.3), while Gach (11.0) and PG Jones (9.6 & 4.5 APG) give the Utes a solid backcourt duo. Gach led the way in last Saturday’s home win over the Buffaloes, scoring a career-high 28 points, to garner his first career Pac-12 Player of the Week award. However, freshman PG Jones suffered a concussion Feb 29 against California. He missed the Colorado game and is NOT expected to play in this one. Utah does have solid depth though, as four other players are chipping in between 7.0 and 7.8 PPG.
Tinkle’s son Tres, a 6-7 senior forward, leads the team in scoring (18.4) and rebounding (7.0), while guard Ethan Thompson (14.9-4.2-4.5) and the 7-0 Kylor Kelley (11.1 & 5.7) also average double digits for the Beavers (note: Kelley's 3.5 blocks per game rank second nationally). Guard Reichle (7.9) and 6-6 forward Hollins (5.2 & 3.1) round out the Beavers' main contributors. Seniors Tinkle and Kelley lead the Beavers into the conference tourney after combining for 43 points, 14 rebounds, five assists and four blocks in a 74-56 Senior Day win over California on Saturday.
Yes, this is a neutral-site contest but note that Utah lost all NINE of its Pac-12 road games, averaging 68.9 points while allowing 78.0. Utah's 6-6 Allen will have a tough time matching up with OSU's Tinkle (Utah has no one to match OSU center Kelley) plus Thompson will be the best backcourt player on the floor. Ore St advances easily for another game with Civil War rival Oregon on Thursday.
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
Suns v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 105-121 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on the Por Blazers at 10:05 ET.
The 26-38 Phoenix Suns will visit the 28-37 Portland Trailblazers tonight. The Suns record is not much of a surprise but the Blazers, who last season reached the Western Conference Finals, have been a HUGE disappointment. Portland lost 123-11 last Saturday at home to the Sacramento Kings, its EIGHTH in the last 11 games. The Blazers are currently 4 1/2 game back of the West's No. 8 seed (Memphis), with New Orleans and Sacramento a half-game ahead of them. The Suns last made the playoffs in 2010 and have averaged 21.8 wins the previous four seasons.
The Suns beat the Blazers 127-117 in Phoenix last Friday and then toppled the Giannis-less Bucks 140-131 on Sunday. Aron Baynes (11.6 & 5.7) started both games in place of center Deandre Ayton (19.0 & 12.0), who is out with an ankle injury. He had 37 points and 16 rebounds in Friday's game with Portland and followed with 24 & 7 vs the Bucks. Both SG Booker (26.1-4.1-6.5) and PG Rubio (12.9-4.6-8.9) are healthy and each had great games vs the Bucks. Booker registered 36 points and eight assists, while Rubio had 25 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists for his seventh career triple double. However, SF Oubre, who's having a breakout season at 18.7 & 6.4, is out until April with a knee injury.
The Blazers own the outstanding backcourt duo of Lillard (29.0-4.3-7.8) and McCollum (22.5-4.1-4.3) plus center Whiteside (16.3 & 14.3) has done all that could have been expected of him. I'm NO big fan of 'Melo but the even he's been better than expected, chipping in 15.1 & 6.3. Recently acquired Ariza is a terrific defender and is averaging 10.5 & 4.7 in his 20 games with Portland. Why the Blazers continue to struggle is a mystery to me.
As noted above, the Suns just beat the Blazers last Friday and have now won two straight games against Portland but that's after losing the previous 11! With the Blazers off a home loss to the Kings and the Suns off an impressive win over the Bucks, I'm going "all in" on Portland in this one! After all, prior to beating the Blazers and Bucks, the Suns had gone just 3-12 ATS their previous 15 games.
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
Magic v. Grizzlies -2 | Top | 120-115 |
Loss | -110 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mem Grizzlies at 8:05 ET.
The Orlando Magic lost EIGHT of nine from Jan 22 through Feb 8 but Sunday's 126-106 win at Houston gave the Magic their SEVENTH win in their last 11 games. The Magic wrap up their four-game road trip tonight at Memphis with a 29-35 record, closing within just a half-game of the Nets for the East's No. 7 seed. maybe more importantly, the Magic are now 5 1/2 games clear of the East's playoff 'cut line.' Like the Magic in the East, the 32-32 Memphis Grizzlies are currently the No. 8 seed in the West. The Grizzlies took an 8-2 run into the All Star break but retuned from the break and promptly lost FIVE in a row. However, the Grizzlies welcome the Magic to the FedExForum having won FOUR of their last five.
The Magic are averaging a modest 106.2 PPG (28th) on the season but they have averaged 120.8 points during their last 11 games, reaching at least 120 on five occasions in that run. Center Nikola Vucevic (19.5 & 11.0) and PF Aaron Gordon (14.4 & 7.6) both produced double-doubles against Houston's "small-ball" lineup. It was Gordon's SIXTH double-double in his last eight games. SGs Fournier (19.8) and Ross (14.6) have produced all season (note: Ross has played in 62 of 64 games without a single start), while the PG position has been ably manned by Fultz (12.0 & 5.2 APG) and Augustine (10.3 & 4.6 APG).
Grizzlies center Jonas Valanciunas (14.7 & 11.1) scored 27 points and pulled down 17 rebounds for his sixth double-double in the last seven games on Saturday, as the Grizzlies beat the Hawks, 118-101. He's one of SIX Memphis players averaging in double digits on the season but TWO of those players are currently sidelined. 6-11 PF Jarren Jackson (16.9 & 4.7) and 6-8 SF Brandon Clarke (12.0 & 5.8) are both out and are not expected to return to late-March. Rookie PG Ja Morant (17.6-3.5-7.0), SG Brooks (15.6), Valanciunas and SG Josh Jackson (10.2 & 3.4) are the "healthy four" averaging double digits. Josh Jackson was the 4th overall pick of the 2017 Draft (Phoenix) but was traded to Memphis over the summer. He's spent most of the season in the G-League and has played in just 17 games since joining the team. However, he's averaged 17 points over the last four games, while the 6-10 Dieng (acquired from Minnesota) is averaging 7.5 & 6.7 in 20 minutes in his 11 games with Memphis.
The Magic are off a HUGE upset win over Houston and now play their FOURTH road game in the last seven days/ Memphis was just 33-49 last season but a victory tonight will match its win total from all of last season. "The Price is Right" for Memphis to get that 33rd win and COVER "with room to spare!"
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
Bruins -110 v. Flyers | Top | 2-0 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Bruins at 7:08 ET.
The 43-14-12 (98 points) Boston Bruins have enjoyed season-long dominance and can become the first NHL team to reach triple digits in points with a victory tonight at red-hot Philadelphia. The Bruins are 0-2 vs the Flyers this season, including a 6-5 shootout loss at Philadelphia back on Jan 13. That contest is best remembered for Brad Marchand overskating the puck in what proved to be the final round to end the game. That victory sparked an 18-4-3 run for the Flyers, who are now 41-20-7 (89) and have closed within ONE point of the Washington Capitals in the Metropolitan Division.
The Bruins are coming off a rare loss, a 5-3 home setback against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Saturday. David Pastrnak did manage to score his league-high 48th goal of the season (his 94 points lead the team and rank 3rd-best in the NHL) while defenseman Charlie McAvoy added one goal and one assist. However, Boston gave up two short-handed goals in a game filled by numerous penalties (26 in all) and skirmishes. Boston's No. 1 line is once-again a dominant force, as Marchand (86 points) and Bergeron (59 points / he's missed nine games) team with Pastrnak. Marchand has collected five goals and 12 assists during a 12-game point streak. Troubling for Boston is that the Bruins are beat up on the blue-line, so much so that coach Bruce Cassidy wasted little time in ruling out defensemen Torey Krug (49 points) and Brandon Carlo with upper-body injuries for Tuesday's contest, while naming Connor Clifton as a replacement.
The Flyers welcome the Bruins to Philadelphia having won a season-best NINE in a row overall and SEVEN straight at home, following Saturday's 3-1 win over Buffalo. Goalie Carter Hart has played a starring role in Philadelphia's ascent in the Metropolitan Division, posting a 9-1-0 record in 10 starts since returning from injury and a 20-2-2 mark at home this season. The Flyers can't match Boston's scoring 'punch,' as center Travis Konecny leads the team in goals (24) and points (61), well short the numbers of Pastrnak. RW Jakub Voracek set up a pair of goals against Buffalo to give him 10 of his club-best 44 assists during his last five games. He has 56 points, just behind center Sean Couturier, who has 22 goals and 59 points.
The Bruins had won four in a row before their Saturday loss to the Lightning but it's noteworthy that yet showed their mettle by coming back from an early three-goal deficit, before falling short. Nott sure if it will be Raask (25-8-6, 2.18 GAA / .926 SP) or Halak (18-6-6, 2.39 GAA / .919) in goal but either one would be fine. After two shootout losses to the Flyers this season, the THIRD time will be the CHARM for the NHL's best team!
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
North Carolina -3.5 v. Virginia Tech | Top | 78-56 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on North Carolina at 7:00 ET. Roy Williams' Tar Heels were ranked No. 9 in the AP's preseason poll but when "all the dust had settled" in the ACC's regular season, North Carolina owned a 13-18 overall record, including 6-14 in the ACC (tied with Pitt and Wake for the league's worst mark). It would be hard to make this up! Te Tar Heels open ACC tourney paly against the Va Tech Hokies, who are 16-15, including 7-13 in the ACC. Mike Young spent 17 years at Wofford, where he led the Terriers to five NCAA appearances, including last season. Wofford defeated Seton Hall 84-68 in LY's Big Dance, giving him the first NCAA Tournament win of his career. He took over at Va Tech, when Buzz Williams used Tech's Sweet 16 appearance last season to take the Texas A&M job. Young lost Va Tech's leading scorer from last year (Alexander-Walker at 16.2) to the NBA and couldn't convince the 6-10 Blackshear (14.9 & 7.5) to stay (he's a graduate transfer at Florida). The Hokies surprised by opening 6-0 and after a two-OT win over UNC on Jan 22, were14-5 (5-3 in the ACC). However, 'the bottom fell out' for Va Tech, as the Hokies went 2-10 SU and ATS over their final 12 regular season games.
Losing streaks of four, five and seven games have already made this a forgettable season in Chapel Hill, but North Carolina had won three in a row before losing 89-76 at Duke on Saturday. UNC freshman guard Cole Anthony began his college career with a bang by scoring 34 points in his debut. North Carolina opened the season 5-0 but Anthony went down with a knee injury in early December and didn't return until the beginning of February. He's played well since his return and checks in with a line of 19.6-5.7-4.1. Fellow freshman, the 6-10 Bacot, has averaged 9.6 & 8.2, while junior forward Garrison Brooks has had a strong season, averaging 16.7 & 8.8. Senior guard Robinson went down with an ankle injury just as Anthony returned but he's been back in the lineup the last SIX games and checks in at 11.9 PPG.
SEVEN of Va Tech's top-eight scorers are guards. Two freshman lead the way, Landers Nolley II (15.6 & 5.9) and Tyrece Radford (10.4 & 6.4). Guards Alleyene (9.0) and Bede (5.2-3.6-5.5) plus 6-5 SF Horne (7.6 & 4.2) complete the starting-five. Horne is the lone frontcourt player of note but note that Va Tech's two freshman guards are the team's top rebounders (see above).
One of North Carolina's MANY frustrating losses came at Virginia Tech back on Jan 22, when Tyrece Radford hit the game-winning shot with 0.4 seconds left in overtime. As noted, Va Tech's imploded since then (see above) and enters this contest with many (most?) of its best players struggling. Horne snapped out of a four-game slump in which he totaled 16 points on 6-of-24 shooting with 17 points on 6-of-10 from the floor in Wednesday's victory over Clemson and paced the Hokies in scoring again with 14 points on 5-of-9 shooting vs Notre Dame. However, freshman guards Nolley and Radford (team's top scorers and rebounders) have both failed to score 10 points in THREE of the team's last four games! The Tar heels may not last past Wednesday's second round but expect UNC to earn a "revenge win" and COVER vs Va Tech, as the Hokies are 0-15 ATS in their 15 losses this season!
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
St Francis PA -1 v. Robert Morris | Top | 67-77 |
Loss | -115 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* NEC Tourney Game of the Year is on St Francis (Pa) at 7:00 ET.
Merrimack (14-4) was the regular-season champion of the Northeast Conference in its first Division I season. In fact, Merrimack became the first school ever to win 20 games in its first Division I season, going 20-11. However, the school is ineligible for postseason play as it transitions to Division I. The St. Francis (Pa.) Red Flash and the Robert Morris Colonials both finished 13-5 in conference play but the Colonials' 76-658 home win over the Red Flash in the regular season finale (Feb 29) earned Robert Morris the No. 1 seed. That came with a HUGE bonus, as 19-14 Robert Morris gets to host 22-9 St Francis (Pa) in the championship game.
Colonials head coach Andy Toole has Robert Morris a win away from clinching a berth in the NCAA Tournament, an event he has experienced as a player, assistant and head coach. Toole played in back-to-back NCAA Tournaments as a PG at Penn in 2002 and ’03. He coached in back-to-back NCAA tourneys as a Robert Morris assistant to Mike Rice in ’09 and ’10, plus Toole guided the Colonials there as head coach in 2015. St Francis head coach Rob Krimmel has nowhere-near the success Toole has experienced. St Francis was his first-ever head coaching gig and he wasn't able to produce a winning season in any of his first FIVE. He entered this season off 18-13 and 18-15 years and while the Red Flash expected another winning season, this year's 22-9 mark is quite a surprise. Can Krimmel lead the Red Flash to a win here, giving the school just its second-ever NCAA berth (made it back in 1991)?
Robert Morris has the homecourt edge but St Francis is the better team. The Colonials own a nice guard trio in Williams (13.5 & 4.4), Bramah (13.0 & 7.9) and Treacy (8.5-2.8-4.5) plus the 6-8 Mendy (8.5 & 4.7) is their best frontcourt performer. However, the Red Flash counter with the dynamic guard duo of Isaiah Blackmon, the 2019-20 NEC Player of the Year, and Keith Braxton, the 2018-19 NEC Player of the Year. Blackmon is averaging 18.9 & 5.4 and Braxton 17.5-7.4-3.8. 6-6 forward Thompson (10.5 & 5.) is a third double digit scorer.
St Francis has scored 87 and 84 points in its two NEC tourney wins and won't let playing away from home stand in its way of the school's second-ever NCAA berth (see above). After all, the Red Flash are a MONEY-MAKING 11-3 ATS (79%) in road and neutral-site games this season! Party like it's 1991!
Good luck...Larry
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03-10-20 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Northern Kentucky -4 | Top | 62-71 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Northern Kentucky at 7:00 ET.
The 18-16 UIC Flames and the 22-9 Northern Kentucky Norse meet in the Horizon League championship game from the Indiana Farmers Coliseum (Indianapolis) on Tuesday night. The Flames were just 10-8 in the regular season and entered the tourney as the No. 4 seed but after winning twice at home (93-59 over IUPUI on March 3 and 67-61 over Youngstown St on Mar 5), they took down No. 1 seed Wright St last night, 73-56 as a six-point underdog (note: Wright St made just 28.3% of its shots!). John Brannen led the Northern Kentucky Norse to three straight 20-plus winning seasons the previous three years and to the "Big Dance" in two of those three seasons. However, he left for the 'greener pastures' of Cincinnati after the conclusion of last season. Darrin Horn, who and excellent head coaching success at Western Kentucky but flopped at South Carolina, took over. Horn's team finished second in the regular season (13-5) and had a bye into the semifinals. The Norse punched their ticket to the title game with an 80-69 win over Green Bay last night.
UIC owns depth in the backcourt, as four players contribute. PG Ferguson (14.5-5.8-4.8), followed by Ottey (11.7 & 3.1), Boahen (10.4 & 4.1) and Ahale (5.4). The frontcourt trio consists of the 6-8 Diggins (9.2 & 4.9), the 6-10 Bridges (8.5 & 5.0) and the 6-8 Blount (6.1 & 4.0). Ferguson tied his career high with 25 points, as Illinois-Chicago advanced to its first Horizon League championship game since 2004.
6-6 senior forward Dantez Walton was lost to an arm injury in December but returned on Jan 31. He's the team's top scorer (16.5) and rebounder (7.2) and is joined in the starting lineup by guards Sharpe (15.1), Tate (13.9 & 5.4) and Faulkner (11.9 & 4.2), plus the 6-5 Adheke (3.7 & 4.9). Sharpe led the Norse with 20 points against Green Bay, while Walton scored 19 and grabbed 11 rebounds.
This is the Flames' FOURTH game in eight days and they are coming off upsetting the Horizon's top-seed. Meanwhile, Northern Kentucky enters this game having won 14 of its last 17 games. TWO of those losses came at the hands of Wright St and other??….It came against these very same Flames, who won at Northern Kentucky 73-43, as 9 1/2-point underdogs! In that game, the Norse shot just 22.0% from the floor, including an abysmal 4 of 32 on threes! That WON'T happen here! Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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03-09-20 |
St. Mary's +4.5 v. BYU | Top | 51-50 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on St Mary's at 11:30 ET.
Gonzaga ha dominated the WCC regular season ands the conference tourney for two decades but both fifteenth-ranked BYU and Saint Mary's are hoping for a chance to take down the Bulldogs in Tuesday title game (assumption being that Gonzaga, a two 'TD' favorite, beats San Francisco). The 25-7 Gaels and 24-7 Cougars have already played a couple nail-biters this season, with the Gaels winning 87-84 at home in OT on Jan 9 and the Cougars prevailing 81-79 at home on Feb 1, when T.J. Haws hit a three-pointer with 8.5 seconds left. The Cougars ended the regular season on a NINE-game winning streak (included a 91-78 home win over Gonzaga) and received a bye into the semifinals. St Mary's was the league's No. 3 seed and needed two OTs to put away Pepperdine 89-82 in Saturday's quarterfinals.
St Mary's is led by senior guard Ford (21.8) and 6-8 junior forward Fitts (16.7 & 7.0). Krebs (9.7 & 4.1) and PG Kuhse (5.8-3.3-3.8) surround Ford in the backcourt but Fitts only gets help up front from the 6-7 Fotu (6.3 & 3.5). The 6-10 Tass (6.6 & 3.6) was lost for the season with a knee injury back in late-December. BYU has the deeper team. led by 6-7 senior Childs (22.2 & 8.9), who gets help up front from Nixon and Lee (combined 14.5 PPG and 7.5 RPG). Toolson )(15.3-4.7-4.0), Haws (14.3 & 5.8 APG) and Barcello (9.5) give BYU an excellent guard trio.
BYU is a better team 'on paper,' but it's hard to ignore the two regular season meetings. BYU hasn't won a conference tourney title in 19 years, while St Mary's shocked Gonzaga in last year's WCC title game. I want NO part of St Mary's against Gonzaga but for tonight, I want the points as I see another tightly-contested game. Ford scored a career-high 42 points on Saturday while playing all 50 minutes. this tournament St Mary's is considered an NCAA Tournament at-large team by prognosticators no matter how it fares in the tournament, but Ford hasn't forgotten that the Gaels were 28-5 on Selection Sunday two years ago and got passed over by the NCAA selection committee. Again, take the points.
Good luck...Larry
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03-09-20 |
Raptors v. Jazz -3.5 | Top | 101-92 |
Loss | -110 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET.
The Toronto Raptors made a magical run to the NBA title last spring but when the team's main 'magician' (Kawhi) left for LA, the Raptors were expected to struggle. However, that has NOT been the case, despite the fact that the Raptors have seen all of their best players miss double digit games to injury. Toronto won 15 straight (Jan 15-Feb 10) before losing its final game before the break at Brooklyn. The Raptors returned from the break to win two straight but the dropped back-to-back home games to the Milwaukee Bucks and Charlotte Hornets, before embarking on a FIVE-game road trip. Toronto lost at Denver to open the trip but have won THREE in a row as it visits Salt Lake City on the final stop of that trip.
The Utah Jazz won 19 of 21 games (16-4-1 ATS) from Dec 11 through Jan 25 but then lost FIVE in a row. Utah rebounded to go 4-0 right before the All Star break but returned from the break to lose FOUR in a row. A Feb 28th home win over the Wizards snapped that four-game slide and the Jazz then went out and won all FOUR games of a road trip, at Cleveland, New York, Boston and Detroit. The 41-22 Jazz currently hold down the West's No. 4 seed but they are just TWO games back of the 2nd-seeded Clippers. Getting back to Toronto, the 45-18 Raptors are still 7 1/2 games back of the Bucks for the East's top-seed but have opened a three-game lead on the 3rd-seeded Celtics and are 4 1/2 games ahead of the 4th-seeded Heat.
The Raptors received all but SEVEN of their points from the team's starting-five on Sunday, as they won 118-113 at Sacramento. Norman Powell (16.8) scored 31 points, Kyle Lowry (19.7-4.8-7.7) added 30 and Pascal Siakam (23.6 & 7.5) finished with 23 in the win over the Kings to lead the solid play of the first unit, while FIVE reserves continued a downward trend with a combined 2-of-14 shooting. The team has became a bit deeper with the return of center Marc Gasol (7.6 & 6.3), who missed the previous 15 games with a hamstring injury, plus guard Fred VanVleet (17.6-3.8-6.6) is expected back from a shoulder issue this week. Powell has strted in place of VanVleet, Ibaka (15.8 7 8.2) for Gasol and the team's fifth starter is SF Anunoby (10.8 & 5.4)
Bojan Bogdanovic followed up a rough game Friday at Boston by scoring 32 points on 12-of-18 shooting at Detroit, where Utah lost all of an early 22-point lead before surviving the stretch run. Donovan Mitchell added 25 points and is averaging 25.1 since the All-Star. Mitchell (24.4-4.4-4.2), Bogdanocvic (20.5 & 4.2) and center Rudy Gobert, a double-double 'machine' at 15.2 & 13.9, are the 'heart' of the jazz. PG Conley (13.9 & 4.3 APG) has NOT been as good as advertised but unsung players like swingman Ingles (9.6-4.0-5.2) SF O'Neale (6.1 & 5.2) have both played in all 63 games. Then there is Jordan Clarkson, who is averaging 15.8 PPG in 33 games since being 'rescued' from Cleveland.
The Raptors won 130-110 in Toronto back on Dec 1 but Raptors arrive in Salt Lake City off a game in Sacramento last night and will be playing their FIFTH road contest in a nine-day span. The Raptors led the jazz 77-37 in that Dec 1 game in Toronto and I have a 'feeling' the Jazz will remember. I'm "all over' the home team.
Good luck...Larry
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03-09-20 |
Oral Roberts v. North Dakota State -1 | Top | 69-75 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* Summit League Tourney Game of the Year is on North Dakota St at 7:00 ET.
The Oral Roberts Golden Eagles and the North Dakota State Bison meet in a Summit League conference tournament semi-final matchup from the Denny Sanford Premier Center in Sioux Falls, SD. Oral Roberts was just 9-7 in league play but moved to 17-13 on the season after winning last night, 79-52 over Omaha. It sure helped that Omaha shot an abysmal 27.1% from the floor (including 4 of 19 on threes) but don't minimize that fact that Oral Roberts' four digit scorers played well. Senior PG Burns (15.3-3.9-4.2) and freshman guard Abmas (14.9) for an excellent guard duo, while a pair of 6-8 forwards form an impressive frontcourt. Nzwkwesi leads the team in scoring (16.9) and rebounding (10.1) and gets solid help from Obanor (11.8 & 16.7). Abmas led last night with 20 points (Burns had 17), while Nzwkwesi added 13 & 9 and Obanor 13 & 11.
The North Dakota State Bison tied South Dakota St fir first with a 13-3 record but won the tiebreaker, giving them the No. 1 seed. However, the Bison barely edged No. 8 seed Denver (just 3-13 in league play), 'escaping with a 71-69 win on Friday (note: South Dakota St lost Friday night to IPFW!). The Bison are led by a pair of senior guards, PG Sahid (18.3-3.2-3.0) and the 6-6 Ward, who is the team's second-best scorer (16.6) and its top rebounder (7.1). 6-10 junior Kreuser (10.3 & 5.9) is the team's best frontcourt play. Sahid had 22 points and Ward 20 in edging Denver but the big surprise was sophomore guard Griesel (6.5 &n 5.6), who had 10 points and 13 rebounds.
North Dakota St survived despite shooting only 38.6%, while Denver shot 50.0%. North Dakota St was a surprise winner of this tourney last year (entered the tourney 15-15, including 9-7 in league play but then won THREE games in three days!) but this year was a co-favorite with South Dakota St. The Jackrabbits are out and after a HUGE scare Saturday night vs Denver, I expect the Bison to be fully focused in this one. "The Price is Right" for a HUGE play on North Dakota St!
Good luck...Larry
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03-09-20 |
Coastal Carolina v. Appalachian State -4 | Top | 65-70 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Appalachian St at 7:00 ET.
It's second round Sun Belt conference tournament action as the Appalachian State Mountaineers (17-14 / 11-9 Sun Belt) host the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (16-16 / 8-12 Sun Belt from the Holmes Convocation Center in Boone, NC. Cliff Ellis owns more tha 850 career wins as a head coach but it's been awhile since he and his Chanticleers shocked CBB with back-to-back NCAA appearances in 2014 and 2015. Coastal Carolina entered this season off 14-18 and 17-17 years and as noted above, are just 16-16 entering play tonight. Over in Boone, NC, the Appalachian State football program has made major 'waves' but the same can't be said for the basketball program. However, head coach Dustin Kerns (in his third season) has turned things around this season. His Mountaineers won just 15 games in his first year and entered this season off an 11-21 year in 2018-19. A 17-14 record may not seem like a big deal to some but the fans are looking forward to the school advancing in this tourney.
Appalachian State comes into the tournament as them No.6 seed, finishing with an 11-9 mark in conference play. The Mountaineers have a solid backcourt led by PG Forrest (17.3-3.4-2.9) plus Williams (12.8 & 4.2) and Delph (9.3 & 3.8). The 6-9 Johnson (11.0 & 7.7) is joined by the 6-7 Lewis (7.3 & 4.2) and the 6-9 Seacat (6.6 & 5.0). Coastal Carolina can match Appalachian St in the backcourt, as PG Jones (17.0-5.7-5.7) is joined by Brewton (14.5), Gumbs-Frater (11.2) and Green (8.54 & 5.0). However, the lone frontcourt player of note is the 6-8 Burton (11.8 & 7.4).
Appalachian St hasn't played since March 3 plus will NO doubt remember losing 84-77 at home to Coastal Carolina on Feb 29, when the Chanticleers shot 57.1% from the floor. The Chanticleers are looking for another upset win, after eking out a 63-62 victory at UT-Arlington in their first round matchup on Saturday. However, this marks the team's FOURTH straight road game (began with that Feb 29 win at App St) and I believe that's asking "too much" of a 16-16 team. The well-rested Mountaineers get the win and COVER!
Good luck...Larry
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03-09-20 |
Illinois-Chicago v. Wright State -6 | | 73-56 |
Loss | -105 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Wright St at 7:00 ET.
The UIC Flames and the Wright State Raiders meet in Horizon League tourney action from Indiana Farmers Coliseum at Indianapolis on Monday. The Flames were just 10-8 in the regular season and entered the tourney as the No. 4 seed. They've won twice so far (both at home), 93-59 over IUPUI on March 3 and 67-61 over Youngstown St on Mar 5. The now 17-16 (overall) Flames square off against the Horizon's No. 1 seed, the Wright St Raiders (25-6 / 15-3 in Horizon), who haven't played since winning 64-62 at Northern Kentucky on Feb 28.
UIC owns depth in the backcourt, as four players contribute. PG Ferguson (14.1-5.9-4.9), followed by Otley (11.6), Boahen (10.4 & 4.0) and Ahale (5.6). the frontcourt trio consists of the 6-8 Diggins (9.3 & 4.9), the 6-10 Bridges (8.4 & 5.0) and the 6-8 Blount (6.2 & 4.0). The Raiders own a STRONG starting-five, led by the 6-8 Love (16.3 & 975) and the 6-6 Wampler (15.6 & 4.6). A trio of guards join them in the starting lineup, Holden (12.1 & 6.5), Gentry (11.0) and Hall (7.8). The Raiders are one of the nation's highest scoring teams (81.4 PPG ranks 5th).
Head coach Scott Nagy had a long run of success at South Dakota St and has now won 20-plus games in each of his first four seasons at Wright St. He led the Raiders to an NCAA appearance in 2018 and anything less than that would be a HUGE disappointment. Wright St is 11-4 SU in road and neutral games this season and I don't see a Flames team which averages just 68.3 PPG, 'hanging' with the Raiders, who average 81.4 on this neutral court. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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03-08-20 |
Iowa v. Illinois -3.5 | Top | 76-78 |
Loss | -108 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Illinois at 4:00 ET.
No. 18 Iowa (20-10) and No. 23 Illinois (20-10) are both safely are safely in the NCAA Tourney field but each has motivation for this game. Illinois dropped to fourth place in the Big Ten Conference (12-7) with its Thursday home loss to the Buckeyes but a win would give the Illini a double bye in the Big Ten Tournament. Meanwhile, Iowa suffered its first home defeat since early November when it lost 77-68 to Purdue on Tuesday. However, if the Hawkeyes beat the Illini, they hold the tiebreaker for the No. 4 spot over Illinois, Ohio State and Penn State.
Iowa's 6-11 Luka Garza (23.7 & 9.9) has a chance to win national Player of the Year. Garza scored 26 points and grabbed 12 rebounds in the loss to Purdue to register his team-leading 15th double-double of the season (note: he's scored 20 or more points in 15 straight Big Ten games). Guard Joe Wieskamp (14.3 & 6.1) and freshman guard CJ Fredrick (10.5) are the team's other two double digit scorers. The 6-10 Ryan Kriener (7.9 & 4.2) starts up front with Garza, while Toussaint (6.2) and McCaffrey (6.1-4.0-3.9) give Iowa an excellent perimeter group.
The Illini are led PG Ayo Dosunmu (16.6-4.2-3.2). 6-9 freshman Cockburn (13.4 & 8.8) and guard Feliz (10.9 & 5.2) join him in double figures, while guards Griffin (9.1 & 4.6) and Frazier (9.1), just miss. The 6-9 Bezhanishvili (6.8 & 4.8) works alongside of Cockburn, up front. Dosunmu scored a game-high 21 points and dished out five assists, but the Fighting Illini couldn’t hold on to a seven-point halftime lead in the loss to Ohio State. Feliz added 11 points and 11 rebounds to register his third double-double of the season, However, Cockburn was limited to six points and three rebounds due to foul trouble.
The Hawkeyes defeated the Illini 72-65 back on Feb 2 at home, with Garza leading the way with 25 points and 10 rebounds. However, allowing 11 PPG more on the road than at home. Cockburn is surely capable of playing Garza even (he NEEDS to) but don't be surprised if it's Illinois' Ayo Dosunmu (he's averaging 20 points over his last five outings!) who plays the starring role in this one, especially come "crunch time." Iowa has beaten Illinois FIVE in a row but home court rules' in this one, as the Illini win convincingly, which means the team is off until Friday!
Good luck...Larry
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03-08-20 |
Lakers +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 112-103 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Year (Pacific) is on the LA Lakers at 3:35 ET.
The LA Lakers are 48-13, 5 1/2 games better than the 43-19 LA Clippers. However, the Clippers are 2-0 against their Staples Center co-tenants, posted a 112-102 victory in the season opener on Oct 22 and a 111-106 win on Christmas Day. The Clippers have recorded an average margin of victory of 17.0 points in winning SIX in a row (longest active streak in the NBA) but the Lakers have won 10 of their last 11, after beating the NBA-best Milwaukee Bucks Friday night at Staples, 113-103.
The Lakers go as Davis and James go. A.D. (26.6 & 9.5) and LBJ (25.6-7.8-10.7) combined for 67 points in the win over the Bucks and on the season, only Kuzma (12.5 & 4.4) averages in double digits. The Clippers have their own "Dynamic Duo: in Kawhi (26.9-7.5-5.1) and Paul George (20.9-5.9-3.9). However, they also have two of the NBA's best bench players in guard Williams (18.8 & 5.8 APG) and PF Harrell (18.7 & 7.1). What's more, the Clippers recently added forward Marcus Morris at the trade deadline and PG Reggie Jackson on the buyout market. Morris has averaged 10.4 points in 10 games and Jackson 8.7 points and 3.6 assists in seven game.
The Clippers have the better all-around team but SO did Milwaukee on Friday. LBY and A.D. have carried the Lakers to the second-best record in the NBA and as noted, lead the Clippers by 5 1/2 games for the West's best record. Like on Friday, the Lakers find a way!
Good luck...Larry
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03-08-20 |
Valparaiso v. Bradley -3 | Top | 66-80 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* MVC Champ Game is on Bradley at 2:05 ET.
Matt Lottich's first season at Valpo saw the Crusaders go 24-9 (2016-17) but the next two seasons saw them finish 15-17 and 15-18. The Crusaders ended their regular season just 16-15 (9-9 in the MVC) but have now won three games in three days in St Louis (Arch Madness) to reach the MVC championship game as the 7th-seed (10-team league). Brian Wardle took the Bradley head coaching job in 2015-16, after having no success at Green Bay. That first season was a disaster (5-27) but in his fourth season (last year), Wardle led the Braves to the NCAA Tournament by winning The Missouri Valley’s “Arch Madness” Tournament (first MVC title for Bradley since 1988), as the Braves overcame an 18-point deficit to beat Northern Iowa 57-54. The win led to Bradley's first NCAA Tourney appearance since 2006. Bradley finished this year 11-7 in MVC play (tied with Ind St for third), although the Braves were the 4th-seed. However, Bradley's back in the title game with wins over Southern Illinois and Drake.
The Crusaders are led by freshman PG Freeman-Liberty (18.9-5.9-3.3), who gets help from a trio of guards combining for just under 18 PPG. The 6-8 Ryan Fazekas, a graduate transfer from Marquette, was lost early on to an ankle injury but he returned in late January. He checks in as the team's only other double digit scoer at 10.8 PPG. However, like the backcourt, Valp has depth up front, as four others chip in between 6.4 and 9.4 PPG, with 6-7 freshman Clay being the top scorer (9.4) and rebounder (4.7) of that group. Freeman-Liberty scored 29 points with nine rebounds and five assists, as Valparaiso beat Missouri State 89-82 Saturday to advance to the championship game.
Bradley's a veteran team, led by returning guards Brown (14.3 & 4.6 APG) at the point and Kennell (12.5 & 4.4). LSU transfer Kingsby (7.4) starts with the aforementioned duo in the backcourt, with the 6-7 Childs (14.7 & 8.7) and the 6-11 Bar (6.4 & 7.) starting up front. The 6-6 Henry (9.3 & 5.9) is also a frontcourt contributor. Darrell Brown scored 25 points to lead FIVE players in double-figure scoring as No. 4 seed Bradley beat eighth-seeded Drake 76-66 on Saturday to advance to a second straight Missouri Valley Conference tournament championship.
FOUR wins in four days? I'm not convinced (even a little) that Valpo's up to that task. The No. 7 seed Crusaders beat 10th-seed Evansville Thursday by just THREE points (note: Purple Aces lost all 19 MVC games this season) and then upset No. 2 seed Loyola Chicago on Friday in OT. Saturday's win over Missouri St came over a team that like Valpo finished 9-9 in conference play and sees its season end with a 16-17 record. Playing off back-to-back outright wins as an underdog makes me believe the THIRD time WON'T be the charm for Valpo. For Bradley, it will be "deja vu all over again," as the Braves capture a SECOND-straight MVC Tourney title and make a SECOND-straight trip to the Big Dance.
Good luck...Larry
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03-08-20 |
Michigan v. Maryland -4 | Top | 70-83 |
Win | 100 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Maryland at 1:00 ET.
John Beilein left Michigan to take the head coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers (that went well, didn't it?), after leading the Wolverines to NINE NCAA tourneys in his 12 years (twice lost in the national championship game). Taking over was former Fab Fiver Juwan Howard, who had to replace forward Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 & 5.4) plus guards Jordan Poole (12.8) and Charles Matthews (12.2 & 5.0). Michigan opened the season unranked but began 7-0, after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis (Thanksgiving week). The Wolverines shocked then-No. 6 North Carolina (73-64) and now-No. 2 Gonzaga in the championship game. When "the dust had settled," Michigan wound up No. 4 in the AP poll on Dec 4. However, the Wolverines then went 4-9 over their next 13 games to fall to 11-8, including 2-6 in the Big Ten. Michigan to win SEVEN of eight but then dropped two in a row. The Wolverines ended that mini two-game skid with an 82-58 rout of Nebraska on Thursday to virtually punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament.
Mark Turgeon's Maryland team was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll and the Terps opened 10-0. They were ranked No. 4 when they lost Dec 10 at Penn St, a defeat started a 3-4 run. However, Maryland then won NINE in a row from Jan 18-Feb 18. Heading into their final five games, the ninth-ranked Terrapins were in excellent position to claim the regular-season title outright, but they've stumbled toward the finish line. Maryland has lost to Ohio State, Michigan State and Rutgers, with its lone victory during that span coming in a one-point win over Minnesota.
The Wolverines scored 50 points in the second half of their win over Nebraska, capping off an emotional Senior Night in Ann Arbor, which saw PG Zavier Simpson (12.9-4.4-7.9) and 7-1 center Jon Teske (11.7 & 6.9) play their final home game. The return to health of the 6-7 Isaiah Livers has been huge for Michigan. He leads the team in scoring at 13.3 PPG, which give Michigan FIVE players in double digits. Guards Wagner (11.4 & 5.7) and Brooks (10.8) round out that group. With "all hands on deck," Michigan has regained its swagger.
Maryland lost the 6-10 Fernando and his double-double average (13.6 & 10.6) from last year's 23-11 NCAA team (lost in the 2nd round) but FOUR starters returned. PG Anthony Cowan Jr. (16.2 & 4.6 APG) is the team's leading scorer, closely followed by the 6-10 Jalen Smith (15.4 & 10.5). Guards Aaron Wiggins (10.2 & 4.1), Morsell (8.6 & 4.8) and Ayala (8.2) plus 6-8 freshman Donta Scott (6.0 & 3.8) round out Maryland's main contributors.
One can't ignore that Maryland enters its final regular-season game a bit shaken but the Terrapins can still claim at least a share of the Big Ten title with a victory over No. 25 Michigan on Sunday. PG Cowan and the 6-10 Smith are an outstanding 'one-two punch,' with Smith leading the Big Ten with 20 double-doubles (has double-doubles in 12 of his last 13). Michigan lost the previous week to both Wisconsin and Ohio St and I'm not sure a win over hapless Nebraska means much. This stat may surprise some (it did me), as Maryland has won a Big Ten-best 45 home games since the start of the 2017-18 season. A 46th home win here and the Terps earn a share of the Big Ten regular season title for the first time since joining the conference.
Good luck...Larry
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03-07-20 |
Stanford v. Oregon -7.5 | Top | 67-80 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* West Coast Crusher is on Oregon at 11:00 ET.
No. 13 Oregon (20-7 / 12-5 Pac 12) can finish with no worse than a share of the Pac-12 Conference title if it can beat Stanford (20-10 / 9-8 Pac 12) on Saturday in Eugene, in the regular-season finale for both teams. Oregon pulled into a tie atop the conference (with UCLA) on Thursday with its 90-56 blowout of visiting Cal. Meanwhile, Stanford battled back from a 10-point deficit in the second half to take a one-point lead with less than a minute remaining at Oregon St, only to lose 68-65.
The loss dropped Stanford behind Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and USC, all of which are tied at 10-7 heading into the final day of regular-season competition. The four-team logjam ahead of the Cardinal make it unlikely that Stanford could secure one of the four byes in the Pac-12 tournament. Stanford features the inside/outside duo of 6-10 da Silva (16.1 & 6.3) and PG Terry (15.2-4.6-3.2) plus the Cardinal lead the Pac-12 in scoring defense at 61.9 PPG.
Oregon is led by senior PG Payton Pritchard (20.2-4.3-5.6). He's a leading candidate for Pac-12 player of the year and the ONLY player in the nation averaging at least 20 points, four rebounds and five assists per game. The Chris Duarte, the team’s second leading scorer (12.9) and rebounder (5.6), is out indefinitely due to a broken finger. However, he's been replaced in the starting lineup by Mathis (8.3), who has averaged 13.7 points in his last three games. Guard Richardson (10.9) and 6-7 forward Juiston (8.0 & 6.20 have been solid contributors all season.
An Oregon win would guarantee the Ducks the tournament's top seed by virtue of having won its lone meeting with UCLA and considering the Ducks have won 21 consecutive home games, including all 16 this season, I like Oregon's chances to do just that. However, the Ducks have to cover to 'ca$h' but I like their chances to do that as well. Oregon's romp over Cal was its widest margin of victory in a Pac-12 game this season and the Ducks will well-remember losing 70-60 at Stanford back on Feb 1. The Cardinal opened Pac 12 play 4-0 but are just 5-8, since. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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03-07-20 |
Washington v. Arizona OVER 139 | Top | 69-63 |
Loss | -110 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Washington/Arizona Over at 10:00 ET.
Mike Hopkins spent more than 20 years as an assistant to Jim Boeheim at Syracuse, before taking the job at Washington for the 2017-18 season. His first team won 21 games and an NIT berth but last year's team won 27 games and earned an NCAA bid. However, FOUR starters are gone from that team, including three NBA draft picks. That's never good but Hopkins recruited a pair of McDonald's All-Americans (big men Isaiah Stewart and Jaden McDaniels) plus added a third with the transfer of guard Quade Green from Kentucky. However, after a 10-2 start, the Huskies' season imploded. Quade Green was ruled academically ineligible after a Jan 5 win against USC and Washington has gone 3-12 without him (lost NINE straight from Jan 18-Feb 20).
Sean Miller began his 10th season as the Arizona head coach during the 2018–2019 season but Arizona ended the season 17−15, missing the NCAA tournament for only the SECOND time in the previous 34 seasons. Miller's 11th season at Arizona featured a top-5 recruiting class and the Wildcats were ranked No. 21 in the AP's preseason. Arizona has been in and out of the top-15 all season but is currently unranked (20-10 / 10-7 in Pac 120 as it host Washington in its regular season finale.
Freshman "big men" Stewart (16.6 & 8.7) and McDaniels (12.8 & 5.8) have been as good as advertised, but the loss of Green was just "too much." Washington is locked into last place after winning the Pac-12 regular-season title by three games a year ago but it did spring a 90-83 upset at Arizona State on Thursday night. The Huskies shot 50.8 percent in notching their first conference road victory of the season. Guard Nahziah Carter (12.8 & 5.0) matched his career high with 23 points, while Jaden McDaniels added 16 points off the bench and Isaiah Stewart finished with 14 points and 12 rebounds, the 13th double-double of his standout freshman season.
Arizona entered Thursday’s contest against Washington St with a season-long three-game losing streak and proceeded to fall behind the Cougars 31-29 at the half. However, the Wildcats took charge with a 26-0 run and wound up shooting 58.9 percent over the final 20 minutes, in the 83-62 win. Freshman PG Nico Mannion (14.1 & 5.4 APG) scored a game-high 23 points and also dished out seven assists. Fellow freshmen, the 6-11 Zeke Nnaji (16.4 & 8.5) had 21 points and guard Josh Green (11.9 & 4.6) also finished in double figures (12 points). Green returned to action after a two-game absence due to a back sprain. However, was without 6-10 center Chase Jeter (6.8 & 4.3, who has been suspended for the final two regular-season contests due to a violation of team rules and guard Max Hazard (5/3, who didn’t play for the second time in three games due to unspecified personal reasons.
Here's where we are. Thursday's win lifted Arizona into a four-way tie for third place in the Pac-12 with Colorado, USC and Arizona State. A win here just could help the Wildcats secure a top-four finish and the corresponding first-round bye in next week’s conference tournament in Las Vegas. Mike Hopkins "Boeheim-like zone" has been routinely shredded and I expect Arizona to score in the 80s, as the Wildcats scored 75 points in a three-point win in Seattle back on Jan 30. That said, don't be so sure Washington won't "stay close" and that means the game could go WAY over this number. Yes, Washington is 4-13 in the Pac-12, but the Huskies have OUTSCORED the opposition by six total points in conference play!! Washington has made a habit out of dropping the close ones, going 0-7 in league games decided by four points or fewer. Both teams were in the 70s in the first meeting and both are coming off excellent shooting games on Thursday (see above). This one flies over the total.
Good luck...Larry
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03-07-20 |
Jazz v. Pistons OVER 214 | Top | 111-105 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Ut/Det Over at 7:05 ET.
The Utah Jazz won 19 of 21 games (16-4-1 ATS) from Dec 11 through Jan 25 but then lost FIVE in a row. Utah rebounded to go 4-0 right before the All Star break but returned from the break to lose FOUR in a row. A Feb 28th home win over the Wizards snapped that four-game slide and the Jazz are in Detroit on Saturday, looking to extend their winning streak to FIVE row and to cap the team's a four-game road trip at 4-0. The Jazz are 40-22, which currently gives them the West's No. 4 seed, However, the West's No. 2 through No. 7 seeds are separated by just 5 1/2 games. There are NO playoff considerations for Detroit, which has lost NINE of 10 and checks in a 20-43.
Detroit's lineup has been decimated by injuries and the trade of center Drummond, who was sent packing along with his 17.8 PPG and 15.8 RPG. PG Derrick Rose was recently diagnosed with a Grade 2 ankle sprain and likely won't play again this season. Griffin (15.5 PPG) managed just 18 appearances before being lost for the season and Kennard (15.8) hasn't played since before Christmas. Those four make up Detroit's top scorers this season. Head coach Dwane Casey said he's encouraged by the effort he is receiving from the players. "That's one thing I love about this group, they compete and they are playing hard," Casey told reporters after Wednesday's 114-107 loss against the Oklahoma City Thunder. "We have a lot of growing up to do, and we have a lot of men in a lot of situations they have not been in before." Detroit erased a double-digit deficit in the second half, but Oklahoma City scored the last eight points. The Thunder shot 69 percent in the first half. "Our defense was probably the worst it's been since I've been here," Pistons coach Dwane Casey said. "The first three quarters were terrible. The fourth quarter, we made a muscle, came out and put our will into the game and played much better." Let me note here that Detroit has allowed an average of 113.6 PPG over its last seven games.
Switching to Utah, the Jazz have 20-point scorers in SG Mitchell (24.4-4.4-4.3) and SF Bogdanovic (20.3) plus a double-double 'machine' in center Gobert (15.3 & 13.9). They also have 'tons' of depth. In particular, Clarkson has averaged 15.8 PPG in 32 games since coming from Cleveland and will enter this game having reached double digits in 14 of the past 16 games. Mitchell and Bogdanovic shot a combined 5-for-24 from the floor in last night's 99-94 win at Boston, so EXPECT a bounce-back here.
Speaking of Boston, the Jazz have played the Celtics twice over their last six games. The other four games have been against the 19-44 Knicks, 17-45 Cavs, 23-39 Wizards and 25-38 Suns. That quartet closely resembles the 20-43 and let me note that those four finals averaged 236.3 PPG, more than 'THREE TDs' higher than the opening over/under number on tonight's contest! It's Goin' Over!
Good luck...Larry
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03-07-20 |
Ole Miss v. Mississippi State -6 | Top | 44-69 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* CBB Rivalry Game of the Year is on Mississippi St at 6:30 ET.
Ole Miss (15-15 / 6-11 SEC) visits Starkville for the regular season finale for both the Rebels and their longtime Rivals, the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Ole Miss will be very lucky to play in any of the this season's postseason tourneys and while 19-11 Mississippi St (10-7 SEC) will surely continue to play after the SEC tourney, the Bulldogs will likely need to make some 'noise' in the conference tourney to have any chance of earning an at-large bid to the Big Dance.
Kermit Davis made quite any name for himself at Middle Tenn St and took Ole Miss to last year's NCAA tourney (finished 20-13). However, he's no such success this season. However, the Rebels have won their last two. Ole Miss owns a good backcourt, led by senior guard Breein Tyree (20.3) He is joined by Shuler (11.4-4.7-3.4) and Hinson (10.6 & 4.7). The 6-7 Buffen (10.7 & 6.1) and the 6-10 Sy (9. 1& 5.5) give the Rebels a decent frontcourt duo.
Ben Howland knows more than just a little about coaching and his Miss St team has put together back-to-back seasons of 25 and 23 wins in the tough SEC. This year's team will sure misses Qiunndary Witherspoon (18.5 PPG) but FOUR starters returned plus he added freshman guards Stewart and Molinar. The 6-10 Perry (17.2 & 9.9) leads in scoring and rebounding plus the Bulldogs are 'loaded' on the perimeter. Carter (14.1) leads the way, joined by vets Weatherspoon (11.7-3.6-4.0) & Woodard (11.4 & 6.7) plus freshman Stewart (8.6) and Molinar (6.0).
Miss St had won FOUR of five but saw a big opportunity for a win go by the board with an 83-71 loss at South Carolina on Tuesday (Gamecocks are another bubble team). However, the Bulldogs still have a chance to gain one of the top-four seeds and a double bye in the SEC tourney if they get some help elsewhere and they defeat the Rebels. Miss St can only control this game and a dominating win over its bitter rival (Ole Miss is 1-9 SU in true road games) is EXACTLY what I expect from the Bulldogs.
Good luck...Larry
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03-07-20 |
Wisconsin v. Indiana -2 | Top | 60-56 |
Loss | -109 | 6 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Indiana at 12:00 ET.
Wisconsin has been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and as the 24th-ranked Badgers visit Indiana for tehri regular season finale, they are the hottest team in the Big Ten. Wisconsin has won SEVEN in a row (20-10 / 13-6 Big Ten) and claim at least a share of the Big Ten championship for the first time since 2015 with a win Saturday over the 19-11 (9-10 Big Ten) Hoosiers. Archie Miller began his third season as Indiana's head coach in 2019-20 and KNEW he had better improve on the 16 and 19-win seasons the Hoosiers delivered in his first two seasons at Bloomington. Indiana was 10-1 in non-conference play but it's been 'tough sledding' in Big Ten. The schools met Dec 7 in Madison and Wisconsin came away with an 84-64 victory over Indiana
The Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ (17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team but the Badgers returned a solid core. The 6-11 Reuvers (12.9 & 4.4) may not be Happ but he's a quality man. Wisconsin owns a 'DEEP' backcourt, even though King left the team (he was averaging 10.0 PPG but his last game was Jan 24 and he's headed to Nebraska?). In fact, the Badgers are 10-2 without him. Trice (10.0-4.0-4.2), Davison (9.8 & 4.4) and Pritzl (8.2) are a quality trio on the perimeter. The 6-10 Micah Potter, an Ohio St transfer who became eligible in December, has averaged 9.9 & 6.0 since joining the team (he's played 19 games) and along with the 6-8 Ford (8.5 & 4.4), support Reuvers up front.
Indiana lost two NBA players from last year's team, guard Langford (16.5 & 5.4) and the 6-7 Morgan (15.5 & 8.2), but highly-touted 6-9 freshman Jackson-Davis (13.9 & 8.1) has been as good as advertised. He's joined up front by returning 6-7 forward Smith (10.5 & 5.3) and 6-11 Butler graduate transfer Brunk (7.0 & 5.3). The backcourt has depth in Green (10.6), Durham (9.7) and Phinisee (7.3).
The Badgers find themselves in position to secure the top seed in the Big Ten Tournament based on tiebreakers with Maryland and Michigan State if they can win here. However, while the Badgers have lost only once since Feb 1, SIX of their eight wins since have come at home. Indiana comes into this contest having snapped a two-game losing streak with a 72-67 home win over Minnesota on Wednesday night, as all five starters scored in double figures in the win, led by freshman forward Trayce Jackson-Davis, who had 18 points and 9 rebounds, despite playing through a foot sprain. Indiana is 15-3 at home this season and more notably, has gone 5-1 against ranked teams this season with the lone loss coming 77-76 to Maryland. The Hoosiers have beaten ranked teams Florida State, Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Iowa at Assembly Hall. Wisconsin would love to win the Big Ten regular season title but the badgers have clinched a "double-bye" in the tourney, as the school gets set of its 21st NCAA appearance in the last 22 season. Meanwhile, Indiana is vying for a return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2016 and has played excellent defense lately, holding their last five opponents to 65.4 PPG. A win here could greatly help the school's at-large resume.
Good luck...Larry
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03-06-20 |
Santa Clara +3 v. Pepperdine | Top | 73-84 |
Loss | -109 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* WCC Tourney Game of the Year is on Santa Clara at 11:30 ET.
Herb Sendek has taken schools like Miami-Fl, NC State and Arizona St to the "Big Dance." He was fired on March 24, 2015 by Arizona State, after an 18–16 record, losing to USC in the Pac-12 Tournament and a trip to the NIT. Sendek accepted the head coaching job at Santa Clara on March 28, 2016, replacing recently fired coach, Kerry Keating. After seasons of 17, 11 and 16 wins, Sendek's Broncos earned their 20th win of the 2019-20 season last night, beating Portland 76-62. The Broncos will take on the 15-15 Pepperdine Waves in the second round of the WCC Tourney in Las Vegas (Orleans Arena). While Pepperdine was just 15-15, the Waves' 9-9 league mark gave them a first-round bye, as the Broncos went just 6-10 in MCC play during the regular season.
Wertz (12.0-3.5-4.0) and Eddy (8.9) are a solid backcourt duo plus Sendek has real depth and SIZE in his frontcourt. The group includes the 6-9 Vrankic (12.3 & 5.5), the 6-8 Mitchell (10.6 & 5.2), the 6-11 Caruso (9.7 & 4.40 and the 6-10 Bediako (6.6 & 5.3). Pepperdine PG Ross (19.8-4.4-7.2) will be the best player on the court and Chavez (10.1) is a solid backcourt partner. Up front, the Waves feature the Edwards brothers, 6-6 senior Kameron adds 16.5 & 7.1, while 6-8 sophomore Kessler adds 13.7 & 7.6.
Pepperdine has underachieved all season (7-7 in non-conference action / 8-8 in WCC play), yet beat Santa Clara both times during the regular season, 90-86 (OT) on the road and 91-77 at home. That 91-77 result at Pepperdine was the FIRST of SIX straight losses for Santa Clara (Broncos had been 18-6). However, back-to-back wins over Portland has Santa Clara back in the winning column and I believe the Broncos are headed to Saturday's quarterfinals, as "the THIRD time will be the charm" in this meeting with the Waves.
Good luck...Larry
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03-06-20 |
Bucks v. Lakers +1 | Top | 103-113 |
Win | 100 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* "Best vs the Best Showdown Play is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET.
Reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.6-13.8-5.8) has led the Bucks to the NBA's best record (53-9) and he'll lead his team into tonight's game at Staples Center against the LBJ (25.4-7.8-10.7) and A.D. (26.6 & 9.5)-led LA Lakers. The Lakers own the West's best record at 47-13 and enter having won NINE of their last 10 games. The Bucks enter having won SEVEN of eight and won the first meeting between the two teams 111-104 back on Dec. 19 in Milwaukee.
Antetokounmpo recorded 34 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists in Milwaukee's 111-104 home victory over the Lakers on Dec 19 and the Bucks are expecting the Lakers to be in "revenge mode!" Milwaukee PG Eric Bledsoe told reporters, "We beat 'em pretty bad. They're gonna try to come out strong, so we just gotta match their intensity." Bledsoe (15.3-4.7-5.4) and SF Middleton (20.9-6.3-4.1) make up Milwaukee's "Core 3" but the Bucks have many more regular contributors than the Lakers.
Outside of LBJ and A.D, the only other Laker in double digits is reserve forward Kuzma (12.6). LBJ had 21 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists in the first contest against Milwaukee, while Davis posted 36 points and 10 rebounds. However, LA's center duo of McGee (6.9 & 5.1) and Howard (7.8 & 7.6) combined for only six points and seven rebounds!
I will NOT argue against the fact that the Bucks are the NBA's most complete team but as noted above, the Lakers have won NINE of 10 and have ben been able to put the tragedy of Kobe's shocking death, behind them. This could be a preview of the NBA Finals and LA could surely use a confidence-building win. That's my bet!
Good luck...Larry
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03-06-20 |
Missouri State v. Indiana State +2 | Top | 78-51 |
Loss | -109 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Indiana St at 9:35 ET.
It's Arch Madness in the MVC, as the third-seeded Indiana State Sycamores (18-11 / 11-7) take on the sixth-seed Missouri State Bears (15-16 / 9-9) Friday night at the Enterprise Center in St Louis. Missouri State won a tiebreaker with Valparaiso, earning a first round bye into the quarterfinals (FYI...Valpo was able to edge winless Evansville on Thursday and will play on Friday, as well).
The Bears hired Dana Ford as their head coach in 2018, after he was an unimpressive 57-65 in four years at Tennessee St. Not sure the school should have been too surprised with last year's 16-16 and not much has changed this season, either. The Bears are led by guard Cook (14.6 & 4.6) but the loss of PG Dixon (7.2-4.0-3.6) to season-ending shoulder surgery (last played Jan 11), has left the team with a shortage of quality perimeter players. The frontcourt is rotating five players, chipping in between 5.3 and 13.6 PPG. The top performers are 6-8 forwards Prim (13.6 & 4.8) and Da Silva (9.8 & 7.0).
Greg Lansing is in his 10th season as Indiana St's head coach. He burst onto the national scene as a rookie head coach with the Sycamore basketball program in 2010-11, as he became just the second-ever Indiana State head coach to lead the team to the NCAA Tournament in his first season (The first was Bill Hodges and the 1979 NCAA Final 4 team led by Larry Bird). However, he's never matched that success since. The Sycamores went to the CBI in his second season and then back-to-back NITs but ISU entered the current season off FIVE straight sub-.500 seasons. That's changed with this year's 18-11 team. This year's team owns an excellent guard duo in Key (15.8 & 4.7) and Barnes (12.6-3.7-3.7) and I think that gives them an edge in this tournament setting.
I can't think of SINGLE reason why a 15-16 team would be favored (at a neutral site) over an 18-11 team. Let me note that ISU opened 0-4, so that means the Sycamores are 18-7 their last 25 games. ISU's last loss was at home to tonight's opponent on Feb 16 (note: ISU won at Mo St on Feb 1), with the Sycamores winning FOUR in a row to end the regular season, after that defeat. ISU's winning streak began with a home upset of Northern Iowa (MVC's No. 1 seed) and also included TWO road wins. Any 'FREE' points are a bonus.
Good luck...Larry
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03-06-20 |
VCU v. Davidson -4 | Top | 65-75 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Davidson at 9:00 ET.
Mike Rhoads took over at VCU for Will Wade when he left for LSU and after the Rams won a disappointing 18 games in his first season, went 25-8 last season as VCU earned an NCAA bid for the NINTH time in the last 11 seasons. The Rams returned all four of their double-figure scorers from last season’s team, as the lone starter lost from the 2018-19 team was the 6-8 Mobley (no real loss). Bob McKillop is in his 31st season as Davidson's head coach and he's had quite a run (578-350 overall with nine NCAA teams entering the current season). His best-known team was the 2007-08 edition, when Steph Curry led the Wildcats into the Elite 8. Davidson came into this season off a 24-10 year, while returning all five starters. Both schools had high expectations but as they meet in the regular-season final for each, VCU is 18-12 (8-9 in A-10 play) and Davidson just 1`5-14 (9-8 in A-10).
Th 6-7 Santos-Silva (12.8 & 9.1) is VCU's top scorer and rebounder but starting guards Jenkins (10.7 & 4.2) and Evans (9.9) have each recently been sidelined. Jenkins because of a personal health matter(?) and Evans to an MCL knee sprain. Those losses partly explain the team's recent collapse, one in which VCU has gone 1-6 SU and ATS its last seven. VCU's lone double digit scorer now is Santos-Silva.
Davidson's season turned very early on, as the 6-6 Pritchett's knee injury saw him lost for the season before it started plus SG Frampton left for personal reasons after FIVE games. That's TWO of last year's five returning starters. PG Jon Axel Gudmundsson was the A-10s P-O-Y last season and is averaging 14.4-7.2-4.4. Fellow guard Grady led the team in scoring last season and has done so again this year, checking in at 17.1 & 4.2. The 6-10 Luka Drogkovic (10.3 & 4.9) is the third starter back from last season, while returning guard Collins (10.0 & 3.9) and a pair of freshman, round out Davidson's main contributors. The freshman are the 6-7 Lee (8.4 & 3.2) and guard Jones (5.7)
VCU's current slide began right after it won 73-62 at home over Davidson back on Feb 7. However, Jenkins and Evans played in that one (combining for 34 points) and NEITHER are available in this one. "Revenge" will be sweet for Davidson in this one, particularly for Gudmundsson, who scored just four points in the first meeting, making just ONE of eight FG. This marks Gudmundsson's final home game and I expect a big effort from him here, as the injury-riddled Rams go 'quietly.'
Good luck...Larry
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03-06-20 |
Heat v. Pelicans -1.5 | Top | 104-110 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the NO Pelicans at 8:05 ET.
Zion Williamson has only played 17 games but he's already one of the league's marquee attractions, averaging 24.0 & 6.8 (is shooting 58.2% from the floor, including 41.7% on threes). However, the Pelicans are just 8-9 in Zion's 17 games, and welcome Miami to New Orleans on a three-game slide. The 26-26 Pelicans have fallen FIVE games back of the Wst's No. 8 seed (Memphis is 31-31), plus THREE teams are between the Pelicans and Grizzlies. The Miami Heat lost to Minnesota to open a five-game homestand but the Heat rebounded to win the next four games. The Heat are now 40-22 and own the No. 4 seed in the East, 2 1/2 games up on Philly and three up on Indiana last in the tightly bunched Eastern Conference playoff race (Miami is 2 1/2 games back of third-seeded Boston).
Miami's big offseason acquisition was swingman Jimmy Butler and he's delivered, posting a line of 20.3-6.8-6.7. However, the Heat would not be where they are without the emergence of the 6-9 Adebayo (16.1-10.5-5.0), as well as the surprising contributions of undrafted rookie guard Nunn (15.7) and 6-7 second-year player Robinson (13.0). Also, the late addition of SF Crowder (13.2 & 6.0 in 11 games) has proven to be an excellent move.
The Pelicans got a quality 'haul' from the Lakers in the A.D. trade in Ingram (24.6-6.2-4.3), Ball (12.7-6.2-7.0) and Hart (10.2 & 6.4). Williamson joins that trio plus Jrue Holiday (19.7-4.8-6.9) and a solid group of role players. However, the Pelicans have struggled defensively during their three-game slide, allowing 129.3 PPG (does include an OT loss to Dallas).
The Heat own one of the NBA's best home record (27-4) but it's NOT good news that they needed to drain a franchise-record 22 three-pointers to edge 27-35 Orlando just 116-113 on Wednesday. Miami opens a quick two-game road trip tonight in New Orleans, having lost SIX of its last seven road games (1-6 ATS, as well). The LONE win and cover in that span came at NBA-worst Golden St (14-49). Pelicans badly need to win here and Miami should play the perfect foil.
Good luck...Larry
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03-05-20 |
76ers v. Kings -5 | Top | 125-108 |
Loss | -103 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Sac Kings at 10:05 ET.
The Philadelphia 76ers own the best home record in the NBA at 28-2 but fell to 9-23 on the road with losses in the first two of their four-game trip, losing at Staples Center to the Clippers 136-130 on Sunday and to the Lakers 120-107 on Tuesday. Philly now takes a NINE-game road losing into Sacramento on Thursday to face a Kings team which has returned from the break to go 6-1 SU &ATS. The 76ers are losing touch with the top teams in the East but at 37-25, own the East's No. 6 seed, ( 1/2 games clear of the 7th-seeded Nets. As for the 27-34 Kings, they are in a virtual tie with the 28-35 Blazers, 3 1/2 games back of the West's No. 8 seed (Memphis). Lurking closely behind Sacramento are San Antonio and New Orleans.
Philadelphia is playing shorthanded on the trip with All-Stars Joel Embiid (23.3 & 11.8) and Ben Simmons (16.7-7.8-8.2) out with shoulder and back issues, respectively. What's more, SG Josh Richardson (13.9) sat out Tuesday with a concussion and is listed day-to-day. Sacramento is short two important big men in Holmes (13.1 & 8.5) and Bagley (14.2 & 7.5) but Sacramento in Tuesday's 133-126 win over Washington on Tuesday, SEVEN players scored in double figures, while the Kings shot 56.2 percent from the floor. PG De'Aaron Fox (20.4-4.0-6.7) and SG Buddy Hield (19.9-4.9-3.1) comprise a dominant backcourt, while SF Barnes (14.7 & 4.8), swingman Bogdanovich (14.4) and PF Bjelica (11.9 & 6.5) remain solid contributors. Let me also note that PF Harry Giles III (7.1 & 4.2) is averaging 14.5 points on 60 percent shooting over the last six games.
Philly is a current 'mess' away from home and comes into this game seriously, shorthanded (76ers are just 1-8 ATS during their nine-game road slide). The Kings squandered a 28-point lead before turning Washington away in a 133-126 final on Tuesday. Expect Sacramento to pull away for an easy win and cover in this one.
Good luck...Larry
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03-05-20 |
Oakland v. Green Bay -4 | Top | 63-78 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Horizon League Tourney Game of the Year is on Wisconsin-Green Bay at 8:00 ET. The Horizon League tourney opened Tuesday and Oakland advanced with an 80-59 home win over Cleveland St. The now 14-18 Golden Grizzlies will travel to Green Bay to take on the 16-15 Phoenix, who earned the league's No. 3 seed by going 11-7 in league' play (Oakland was just 8-10). Oakland owns a excellent 'one-two punch' in guard Williams (19.8) and the 6-7 Hill-Mais (17.0 & 8.3). Williams, who didn't become eligible until mid-January, had 14 points in the win over Cleveland St, while Hill-Mais had a double-double (26 & 12). Oakland shot 49.1% at home, while Cleveland St made just 38.7%, including a woeful 2 of 11 on threes.
The Golden Grizzlies can't expect that kind of poor shooting here, as Green Bay is averaging 82.2 PPG (4-th best in the nation). Green Bay has excellent depth, as EIGHT players are seeing 15-plus minutes of "PT," led by PG McCloud (17.4-5.1-4.6) plus fellow guards Davis (15.8) and Hankerson (11.3). Green Bay was forced to play FIVE consecutive road games from Feb 6 through Feb 23, before ending the regular season with back-to-back home wins. The final stop on that five-game road trip was at Oakland, which 'escaped' with a 92-88 double-OT win over Green Bay. Some revenge and home cookin' gets Green Bay the win and cover, here!
Good luck...Larry
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03-05-20 |
Illinois State v. Drake -2.5 | Top | 65-75 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* MVC Tourney Game of the Year is on Drake at 7:00 ET. First Round play begins tonight in the MVC Tourney in St Louis. It's been dubbed "Arch Madness" but neither Illinois St (10-20 / 5-13) nor Drake (18-13 / 8-10) is expected to be around by the weekend. Dan Muller served for 12 years as an assistant coach at Vanderbilt University under head coach Kevin Stallings, whom he played for at Illinois State from in the late-90s. He was named head coach at his alma mater for the 2012-13 season and after SEVEN consecutive winning season (including a 28-7 record in 2016-17), his eight season will NOT end well (see above).
Darian DeVries played collegiately at Northern Iowa. He was named assistant coach at Creighton in 2001. He stayed with Creighton following the departure of Dana Altman and the hire of Greg McDermott but became a head coach for the first time when he accepted the job at former conference rival Drake in March 2018. The Bulldogs went 24-10 last season, including 12-6 in MVC play (T-1st) but they have not built on that success this season (again, see record above)
However, Drake is a MUCH better team than Illinois St and "at this price," is a STRONG play. SIX players have played in all 31 games (all have averaged 21-plus minutes), led by the 7-0 Robbins (13.8 & 6.9) and PG Penn (11.7-4.5-5.5), who was a Siena transfer who sat out last season. Guard Copeland (14.6) is the lone double digit scorer for the Redbirds, although FIVE more players chip in between 6.3 & 9.5 PPG. The best of that group is the team's lone frontcourt player of note, the 6-8 Fisher (9.5 & 5.9).
Drake was 2-10 on the road but did win TWO of three neutral-site contests. Meanwhile, not only was Illinois St 1-11 in true road games (lone win at Evansville which went 0-18 in the MVC) but the Redbirds lost all THREE neutral-site games as well. Drake owns the best big man on the floor (Robbins) plus a solid lead-guard in Penn. Drake may not survive a Friday meeting with the No. 2 seed (Loyola-Chi) but a victory gets them to 19 wins, with a chance for back-to-back 20-win seasons for the first time since winning 26, 21 and 22 games from 1969-71 (only 20-win season since 1970-71 was a 28-win season in 2007-08). Bulldogs are the play!
Good luck...Larry
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03-04-20 |
Dayton v. Rhode Island +4.5 | Top | 84-57 |
Loss | -110 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Rhode Island at 9:00 ET.
Anthony Grant had success at both VCU and Alabama, before taking Dayton job for the 2017-18 season (he had a successful four-year playing career as a Flyer). Grant's first two seasons saw the Flyers go a modest 35-29 but his current Dayton team is ranked No. 3 in the latest AP poll, the school's highest ranking since being No. 2 in the 1955-56 season. Dayton is 27-2, with its two losses coming in OT to Kansas (current No. 1) and Colorado. The Flyers have already clinched the Atlantic 10 Conference regular-season title (16-0) and will put their 18-game winning streak on the line tonight when they visit Rhode Island on Wednesday.
Rhode Island head coach David Cox went 18-15 in his 'rookie year' at Rhode Island last season but had all FIVE starters back to open the current season. The Rams are 20-8 and at 12-4 in A-10 play, sit just ONE game back of second-place Richmond in the league standings. The Rams need one win in their last two games to earn a double-bye in the Atlantic 10 Tournament.
Dayton ranks FIRST in the nation by shooting 52.6% from the floor plus allows 65.2 PPG (pretty good when one is scoring 80.0 PPG). Leading the way is 6-9 All-America candidate Obi Toppin (also a P-O-Y candidate), who is a certain NBA first-round pick if he decides to forgo his final two seasons. Toppin leads the team in scoring (19.7) and rebounding (7.8), while a trio of guards join him in double digits. That group includes PG Jalen Crutcher (14.8 & 4.9 APG), Trey Landers (10.7 & 6.5) and Ibi Watson (10.2). Toppin is joined up front by 6-7 senior Mikesell, who adds 8.7 & 4.9.
PG Fatts Russell (19.5-3.4-4.6) leads the team in scoring plus is joined by two other guards in double digits, Dowtin (14.0-3.6-3.2) and Martin (13.0 & 7.0). 6-8 senior Cyril Langevine (10.2-10.4) is one of just a handful of players averaging a double-double for the entire season plus a trio of frontcourt players combine to chip in about 16 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.
The Rams lost 81-67 at Dayton back on Feb 11 but actually pretty much played Dayton even, after falling behind 17-0! That loss ended a 10-game Rhode Island winning streak and leaves the Rams just 2-3 their last five. Sunday's 72-62 loss to Saint Louis placed Rhode Island squarely on the NCAA Tournament bubble, as the Rams are currently projected by ESPN to be one of the first four teams out of the tournament. That said, a victory over the Flyers could change all that! A win secures a double-bye into the upcoming A-10 tourney and could just secure an at-large NCAA bid. That would be a pretty 'sweet daily-double.' That's my bet.
Good luck...Larry
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03-04-20 |
Virginia v. Miami-FL OVER 117.5 | Top | 46-44 |
Loss | -111 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* play is on UVA/Mia-Fl Over at 9:00 ET.
Virginia won the school's first-ever national championship last season but gone from that team are its top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). The Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it lost 60-53 at BC on Jan 4. That defeat was the start of UVA losing FOUR of five. However, the surging Cavs have now won SIX straight and NINE of 10 to reach 21.7. They are 13-5 and tied with Duke for third in the ACC. Virginia climbed back into AP top-25 at No. 22 on Monday and there is no longer ANY talk of missing the "Big Dance."
Jim Larranga famously led George Mason to the Final Four back in 2006 and has been at Miami since the 2011-12 season. He won 20-plus games in SIX of his first seven years at Miami (four NCAA teams) but the team was just 14-18 last year and now 14-12 this season, including 6-12 in ACC play. The Hurricanes are returning home from a disappointing 1-2 road swing, which included a miserable showing Saturday in a 63-57 loss at Georgia Tech (note: Miami scored a season-low 24 points in the first half).
The 6-9 Diakite and 5-9 PG Clark are the returning starters from last year's defending champs and Diatke leads in scoring at 13.6 PPG, while adding 6.6 RPG. Clark naturally leads the team in assists (6.0) and adds 10.7 PPG. The 6-8 Key joins him in the backcourt and he adds 10.2 PPG and a team-high 7.4 RPG. Woldetensae is fairly new to the starting lineup and while he's been 'quiet' the last two games (only a combined five points), he had 13.3 PPG his previous eight. 7-1 junior center Jay Huff (8.1 & 6.1) had one of the best games of his career on Saturday in a 52-50 home win over then-No. 7 Duke. He nearly had a triple-double, finishing with 15 points, 10 blocks and nine rebounds.
The Hurricanes are close to full strength with Chris Lykes, Kameron McGusty and Rodney Miller all back from injuries. Lykes (15.2) leads a solid guard trio that also includes Vasiljevic (13.2 & 4.2) and McGusty (13.0 & 4.1). However, freshman guard Isaiah Wong (7.6) had his streak of NINE straight games with double-digit scoring halted with a six-point effort against Georgia Tech. Rodney Miller Jr., Miami's 7-foot, 255-pound redshirt junior center, provides some scoring from the post as well as rebounding, averaging 7.6 points and 5.8 rebounds. He is joined up front by the 6-10 Waardenburg (6.2 & 5.9).
Jim Larranaga (now 70-years-old) is in danger of having his SECOND straight losing season, which would mark the first time that's happened to him since 1991-93, when he coached at Bowling Green. Not sure Miami can best UVA but I do believe the 'Canes will bounce-back from their 'ugly' effort at Ga Tech. Yes, UVA allows just 52.6 PPG (1st) but Miami averages 72.5 PPG. It's another low total for UVA and the Cavs should not have trouble against a Miami D allowing 74.6 PPG, 301st in the nation. Go Over!
Good lucky...Larry
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03-04-20 |
Virginia -2 v. Miami-FL | Top | 46-44 |
Push | 0 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Conference Crusher (ACC) is on UVA at 9:00 ET. Virginia won the school's first-ever national championship last season but gone from that team are its top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). The Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it lost 60-53 at BC on Jan 4. That defeat was the start of UVA losing FOUR of five. However, the surging Cavs have now won SIX straight and NINE of 10 to reach 21.7. They are 13-5 and tied with Duke for third in the ACC. Virginia climbed back into AP top-25 at No. 22 on Monday and there is no longer ANY talk of missing the "Big Dance."
Jim Larranga famously led George Mason to the Final Four back in 2006 and has been at Miami since the 2011-12 season. He won 20-plus games in SIX of his first seven years at Miami (four NCAA teams) but the team was just 14-18 last year and now 14-12 this season, including 6-12 in ACC play. The Hurricanes are returning home from a disappointing 1-2 road swing, which included a miserable showing Saturday in a 63-57 loss at Georgia Tech (note: Miami scored a season-low 24 points in the first half).
The 6-9 Diakite and 5-9 PG Clark are the returning starters from last year's defending champs and Diatke leads in scoring at 13.6 PPG, while adding 6.6 RPG. Clark naturally leads the team in assists (6.0) and adds 10.7 PPG. The 6-8 Key joins him in the backcourt and he adds 10.2 PPG and a team-high 7.4 RPG. Woldetensae is fairly new to the starting lineup and while he's been 'quiet' the last two games (only a combined five points), he had 13.3 PPG his previous eight. 7-1 junior center Jay Huff (8.1 & 6.1) had one of the best games of his career on Saturday in a 52-50 home win over then-No. 7 Duke. He nearly had a triple-double, finishing with 15 points, 10 blocks and nine rebounds.
The Hurricanes are close to full strength with Chris Lykes, Kameron McGusty and Rodney Miller all back from injuries. Lykes (15.2) leads a solid guard trio that also includes Vasiljevic (13.2 & 4.2) and McGusty (13.0 & 4.1). However, freshman guard Isaiah Wong (7.6) had his streak of NINE straight games with double-digit scoring halted with a six-point effort against Georgia Tech. Rodney Miller Jr., Miami's 7-foot, 255-pound redshirt junior center, provides some scoring from the post as well as rebounding, averaging 7.6 points and 5.8 rebounds. He is joined up front by the 6-10 Waardenburg (6.2 & 5.9).
Jim Larranaga (now 70-years-old) is in danger of having his SECOND straight losing season, which would mark the first time that's happened to him since 1991-93, when he coached at Bowling Green. Miami will surely look to bounce-back from its 'ugly' effort at Ga Tech but UVA allows just 52.6 PPG (1st). What's more, the Cavs should not have trouble against a Miami D allowing 74.6 PPG, 301st in the nation. Cavs continue their climb up the ACC standings and in the AP poll.
Good lucky...Larry |
03-04-20 |
LSU v. Arkansas -2.5 | Top | 90-99 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Arkanasa at 7:00 ET.
LSU burst of the SEC gates at 8-0 but has since gone 3-5 (Tigers are 20-9 overall). LSU tied for second in the conference with No. 17 Auburn after a 64-50 victory over Texas A&M on Saturday and is on the verge of earning a double-bye in the SEC tourney. Mike Anderson never fulfilled his promise at Arkansas and was let go after eight seasons (just three NCAA bids). To the rescue has come Eric Mussleman, who led Nevada to the CBI title in his first season at Reno (2015-16) and then to three consecutive NCAA tourneys the last three years (won 28, 29 and 29 games!). Four starters returned for Arkansas but Mussleman added FIVE transfers in his first five months on the job. The Razorbacks were coming off a 18-16 season but enter this contest 18-11 but just 6-10 in SEC play.
All five of LSU's starters are in double digits, led by guard Skylar Mays (16.2 & 5.0). He's joined by Javonte Sn]mart (12.4-3.3-4.1) in the backcourt, while the 6-9 Watkins (13.6 & 7.1), the 6-6 Williams (13.4 & 6.7) and the 6-6 Days (11.7 & 7.2) make up the frontcourt. Arkansas is led by PG Jones (21.3-5.7-3.4), who is joined in double digits by 6-5 SF Joe (16.9 & 4.1), plus guards Whitt (13.8 & 4.7) and Sills (10.4 & 3.1). The best frontcourt player is the 6-6 Bailey (6.9 & 4.5)
LSU hasn't won back-to-back games since opening SEC play at 8-0 and after beating A&M the last time out, I wouldn't trust them here. The Razorbacks lost Joe for a few games but he's returned the last three to average 23.0 PPG. This would count as a valued Quad 1 win for Razorbacks, who could move to the "safe side" of the Big Dance 'cut-line' with a victory. That's my bet.
Good luck...Larry
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03-04-20 |
Tulsa v. Temple -2.5 | Top | 61-51 |
Loss | -108 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Temple at 7:00 ET.
Tulsa head coach Frank Haith has had stops at Miami-Fl and Missouri before coming to Tulsa, where he led the Golden Hurricane to back-to-back 20-win seasons in his first two seasons at the school. However, Tulsa entered this season on a three-year postseason drought, so the team's 20-9 record so far, is "big news" in Tulsa. The Golden are 12-4 in AAC play, tied with No. 21 Houston for first place. Temple has a first-year head coach in Aaron McKie, but he's hardly "new." McKie played three years at Temple (he was the 1993 Atlantic 10 Conference Player of the Year as a junior) and then after a 15-year NBA career, returned to Temple as Dunphy's assistant from 2014-19. Temple was picked to finish seventh in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll and the Owls are currently 8th (6-10), with an overall record of 14-15.
The Golden Hurricane are led by the trio of guard Rachal (12.4 & 5.7) plus forwards Igbanu (13.2 & 5.1) and Horne (11.1 & 5.2) (11.1 & 5.1). Three more guards all play 25-plus minutes, combining for about 23 PPG. Temple is led by senior guard Quinton Rose (16.2-4.9-3.5) and junior guard Nate Pierre-Louis (11.5 & 8.4). The Owls have excellent depth in the backcourt with Moore (8.5) and Scott (7.4). Up front, it's the 6-8 Forrest (8.0 & 4.1), the 6-7 Perry (5.9 & 2.7) and the 6-7 Moorman (5.8 & 5.1).
Tulsa's been terrific at home (15-2) but can be had on the road. It's Senior Night for Temple, as Quinton Rose plays his last home game. The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between these two schools and I'm taking the Owls.
Good luck...Larry
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03-03-20 |
Purdue v. Iowa -5 | Top | 77-68 |
Loss | -106 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Game of the Year is on Iowa at 9:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Tuesday morning. |
03-03-20 |
Predators v. Wild -125 | Top | 1-3 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* NHL Game of the Week is on the Min Wild at 8:08 ET.
The Nashville Predators were tied with Edmonton entering the third period on Monday, before the Oilers exploded for five goals in a 5:13 span to prevail 8-3, leaving the 32-25-8 Predators in a three-way tie for the final wild-card spot (72 points) and just ONE point ahead of the 32-26-7 Minnesota Wild. The Wild had their three-game winning streak snapped with a 4-3 loss to Washington on Sunday and now will try to halt a SEVEN-game slide against Nashville.
Nick Bonino scored his 18th goal of the season, matching Filip Forsberg for the club lead, to tie Monday's game 3-3 before the wheels came off. However, defenseman Roman Josi leads the team in points with 61 (16 G / 45 assists). Note his point total is 18 more than any other Nashville play. Goalie Juuse Saros, who is 3-1-0 with a .932 save percentage in his last four games, will likely be in goal Tuesday after relieving Pekka Rinne, who allowed EIGHT goals versus Edmonton.
The Wild's Kevin Fiala was named the NHL's First Star of the Week after becoming the third player in franchise history to record four consecutive multi-point games, scoring in each of those contests to raise his team-leading and career-high point total to 49. Zach Parise (42 points) scored his team-leading 23rd goal Sunday and has two goals and three assists in his last three games. Alex Stalock (18-10-4, 2.64 FGAA / .909 SP) saw his four-game winning streak end Sunday but has a 2.27 goals-against average while starting the last four for Minnesota. However, he's 0-5-1 with a 3.00 GAA in his career vs. Nashville. Devan Dubnyk (11-15-2, 3.34 GAA / .892 SP), who last started on Feb 23, has lost four in a row vs Nashville, but owns a lifetime 2.24 GAA over 26 career games against the Predators.
Not sure who be in goal tonight but I like Minnesota here. The Wild haven't been in postseason position since early December but are 12-6-1 over their past 19 games and had won three in a row before Sunday's 4-3 home loss to Washington. Remember the TV show, Eight is Enough? Well, after SEVEN straight losses to Nashville, Minnesota breaks through.
Good luck...Larry
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03-03-20 |
Maryland v. Rutgers -1 | Top | 67-78 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Rutgers at 7:00 ET.
Rutgers head coach Steve Pikiell is in his fourth season at the school, having gone 44-54 in his first three. Coming off a 14-17 season a year ago, Rutgers was picked 12th (of 14 schools) in the Big Ten preseason polls but the Scarlet Knights got off to their best start since the 1996-97 season and earned an AP ranking for the first time since the end of the 1978-79 season back on Jan 20. However, the Scarlet Knights are just 4-7 since losing at Iowa on Jan 22, including their first home loss of the season 60-52 to Michigan on Feb 19. Rutgers ha s followed the loss to the Wolverines with back-to-back road losses at Wisconsin and Penn St and welcome Maryland to New Jersey 18-11 overall, including 9-9 in the Big Ten. Mark Turgeon's team was ranked 7th in the AP's preseason poll and the Terps opened 10-0. They were ranked No. 4 when they lost Dec 10 at Penn St, a defeat started a 3-4 run. However, Maryland then won NINE in a row from Jan 18-Feb 18. Maryland is 23-6 overall and despite TWO losses in its last three, is atop the Big Ten at 13-5 (ONE game up on three schools).
Maryland lost the 6-10 Fernando and his double-double average (13.6 & 10.6) from last year's 23-11 NCAA team (lost in the 2nd round) but FOUR starters returned. PG Anthony Cowan Jr. (16.1-3.6-4.7) is the team's leading scorer, closely followed by the 6-10 Jalen Smith (15.3 & 10.5). Guards Aaron Wiggins (10.4 & 5.1), Morsell (8.6 & 4.8) and Ayala (8.2) plus 6-8 freshman Donta Scott (6.2 & 3.1) round out Maryland's main contributors.
Pikiel took his team to Spain in August and Rutgers went 4-0, while jelling as a unit. The "breakout star" of that trip was guard Ron Harper, who averaged 17.0 PPG on 53 percent shooting. He's currently Rutgers' leading scorer, averaging 12.1 PPG and adds 5.7 RPG. PG Baker (10.6 & 3.5 APG) plus a trio of other of guards combine to add 22.4 PPG. Up front, the 6-6 Yeboah (9.8 & 4.7) and the 6-10 Johnson (7.9 & 8.0) are the biggest contributors.
Ninth-ranked Maryland can clinch at least a share of its first Big Ten regular-season title since joining the conference in 2014 when it visits Rutgers on Tuesday. The Terrapins missed a chance to seal the deal on Saturday, losing 78-66 at home to Michigan State. Martyland two previous games saw thenm lost at Ohio St and edge Minnesota 74-73, when Morsell hit a three-pointer with 1.9 seconds to go in the game. Maryland beat Rutgers just 56-51 back on Feb 4 in College Park, overcoming a five-point halftime deficit. Maryland's 56 points was the team's lowest output in its last 12 games and now must beat Rutgers at "The RAC" (Rutgers Athletic Center), where the Scarlet Knights are 17-1 (most home wins of any school, so far!). This will be Senior Night in Piscataway, N.J., and the RAC will be packed with fans to cheer the squad still enjoying its first winning season in 14 years, and hoping for its first NCAA Tournament bid in 29 seasons. Sounds like PERFECT STORM to me!
Good luck...Larry
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03-03-20 |
Wake Forest v. North Carolina -7.5 | Top | 83-93 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on North Carolina at 7:00 ET.
Wake Forest visits Chapel Hill Tuesday night. Danny Manning is now in his sixth year as Wake's head coach and he entered the current season with just ONE winning season in his first five (65-93, .411 overall). Meanwhile, Roy Williams' Tar Heels were ranked No. 9 in the AP's preseason poll. However, as the teams meet in h=this final week of regular season play, Wake is 13-15 (6-12 ACC) and UNC just 12-17 (5-13). It would be hard to "make this up!"
Wake Forest enters having won two straight, defeating Duke in double overtime 113-101 on Feb 25 and then beating Notre Dame 84-73 on Feb 29. Wake features THREE double digit scorers in veteran guards Childress (15.1 & 4.6 APG) and Brown (12.7 & 6.5) plus 7-0 junior center Sarr (13.6 & 8.8). Senior guard White (9.4), just misses. UNC freshman guard Cole Anthony began his college career with a bang by scoring 34 points in his debut. North Carolina opened the season 5-0 but has lost 17 of 24 since that start. Anthony went down with a knee injury in early December and just returned at the beginning of February. However, he's looked good and leads the etam with a line of 19.7-5.9-3.9. Fellow freshman, the 6-10 Bacot, has averaged 9.5 & 8.1, while junior forward Garrison Brooks has added 16.1 & 8.7. The team's fourth double digit scorer is senior guard Robinson (11.7). However, just as Anthony returned, he went down with an ankle injury. The good news is, he's been back for the last four games.
North Carolina has shown some life in its last two outings, following a seven-game losing streak by seven by knocking off North Carolina State on Tuesday and shooting 51.6 percent to win at Syracuse 92-79 on Saturday. The Tar Heels look to extend their winning streak to three games, for the first time since opening the season with five straight victories. It's been a "season to forget" for Roy Williams but he and his Tar Heels WON'T forget losing for the first time in six years to Wake Forest back on Feb 11. Wake won 74-57, as North Carolina went 1 of 16 on three-pointers. It was the worst display seen at Chapel Hill since the days Matt Doherty was on the bench almost two decades ago. Wake is just 1-9 SU on the road, so lay the points!
Good luck...Larry
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03-02-20 |
Grizzlies v. Hawks -2 | Top | 127-88 |
Loss | -106 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atl Hawks at 7:35 ET.
The Memphis Grizzlies won 15 of 19 before the All Star Game but returned from the break to go 0-4 SU & ATS in a four-game West Coast swing. The Grizzlies then lost at home to the Kings this past Friday, before snapped out of their post All-Star break 0-5 SU & ATS malaise in a big way on Saturday. Memphis had allowed 122.8 points in those five consecutive losses but held the best-in-the West Lakers to 40.9 percent shooting, in a 105-88 victory on Saturday. Memphis is back on the road tonight, as the 29-31 Grizzlies take of the 19043 Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks beat the Nets 141-118 on Friday and then the Blazers 129-117 on Saturday. It marked the first time in 12 tries this season that Atlanta won both ends of a back-to-back.
Memphis rookie Ja Morant (17.7-3.4-7.0) leads the team in scoring, followed by SF Jackson (16.9 & 4.7). SG Brooks adds 15.8 PPG, veteran center Valanciunas adds 14.6 & 10.9 and rookie SF Clarke adds 12.0 & 5.8. However, both Jackson and Clarke are currently sidelined until mid-March. Memphis has drafted well in the last three (Morant and Clarke in 2019, Jackson in 2018 and Brooks in 2017) but so has Atlanta. Young was the Hawks' top pick in 2018 and he's averaging 29.8-4.3-9.4. The 6-9 Collins was the team's first-round pick in 2017 and after missing all of November and most of December, he's now healthy and averaging 21.4 & 10.3. Hunter (12.6 & 4.3) and Reddish (10.0 & 3.7) were first-round picks in 2019. Hunter and Reddish are starting to live up to their potential. Reddish had a season-high 26 points on Friday against Brooklyn and Hunter scored 22 on Saturday against Portland.
Memphis is trying to hang onto the West's final playoff spot and enters Monday THREE games up over New Orleans, Sacramento and San Antonio, while Portland trails by four games. There are NO playoff aspirations in Atlanta but the Hawks enter this contest 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at State Farm Arena. The Hawks own home wins over playoff-bound teams the Clippers, 76ers, Heat and Mavs in this current run and I'm 'all over' them in this one.
Good luck...Larry
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03-01-20 |
Minnesota v. Wisconsin -5.5 | Top | 69-71 |
Loss | -107 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout in on Wisconsin at 6:30 ET.
Richard Pitino has had a roller-coaster run at Minnesota, capturing the NIT (25 wins) in his first season but then falling to 18 wins and just EIGHT wins the next two seasons. The last three seasons have seen 24 and 22-win NCAA teams sandwiched around a 15-win season. Pitino opened the current season without guards Coffey (16.6) and McBrayer (8.9) plus big man Murphy (14.4 & 11.0), who gave the Minnesota program a combined 11 seasons. Minnesota comes into this game off blowing a 17-point lead in a 74-73 loss to Maryland on Wednesday. The Golden Gophers imploded down the stretch and at 13-14 (7-10 Big Ten), even their NIT hopes are on 'life support.'
Meanwhile, Wisconsin has been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and the Badgers will take a five-game winning streak into this contest, looking to earn a top-four finish in the Big Ten, while taking another step towards securing an NCAA Tournament bid. After Saturday's results, Maryland leads the Big Ten at 13-5, with 12-6 Michigan St in second at 12-6. Wisconsin and Illinois (Illini host Indiana today) are both 11-6, while Penn St and Iowa are 11-7. A reminder, a top-four Big Ten finish earns a double-bye in the conference tournament.
Minnesota's 6-10 sophomore center Daniel Oturu iss averaging 20.0 & 11.4, while fellow sophomore, PG Marcus Carr, is averaging 15.5-5.6-6.7. Guards Kalscheur (11.4) Willis (9.2) plus the 6-9 Demir (7.0 & 4.) round out Minnesota's starting-five (Gophers don't have much depth). Oturu scored 28 points on 10-of-13 shooting from the floor and pulled down 11 rebounds against Maryland to register his fifth double-double in his last six games. Marcus Carr added 19 points and seven assists to give him 182, which broke the single-season assist record.
The Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ (17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team but the Badgers have a solid returning core. The 6-11 Reuvers (13.3 & 4.6) may not be Happ but he's a quality man. Wisconsin owns a 'DEEP' backcourt, even though King (10.0) left the team (last game was Jan 24). Trice (10.3-4.0-4.1), Davison (9.5 & 4.2) and Pritzl (7.9 & 3.7) are a quality trio. The 6-10 Micah Potter, an Ohio St transfer who became eligible in December, has averaged 9.9 & 6.1 since joining the team and along with the 6-8 Ford (8.4 & 4.3), support Reuvers up front. Trice went 5-of-6 from the three-point line en route to a game-high 28 points and dished out four assists as the Badgers finished 11-of-23 from beyond the arc in winning 81-74 at Michigan at No. 19 Michigan on Thursday. Aleem Ford added 18 points and eight rebounds, while Micah Potter produced 18 points and seven rebounds.
Wisconsin's last loss was at Minnesota (Feb 5), when the Badfgers fell 70-52. Wisconsin shot 28.4% in that contest but have won FIVE in a row since, averaging 76.0 PPG. Wiscionsin's 81-74 win at Michigan saw the Badgers top the 80-point mark in back-to-back road games for the first time since 1993-94! The Kohl Center has been a "House of Horrors" for visiting teams for two decades and the current season is NO different, with the Badgers going 13-1 (lone loss was 71-70 to Illinois). Lay the points!
Good luck...Larry
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03-01-20 |
Raptors v. Nuggets -4 | Top | 118-133 |
Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Den Nuggets at 6:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors made a magical run to the NBA title last spring but when the team's main 'magician' (Kawhi) left for LA, the Raptors were expected to struggle. However, that has NOT been the case, despite the fact that the Raptors have seen all of their best players miss from 11 to 20 games due to injury (more later). Tronto won 15 straight from Jan 15 through Feb 10, before losing at Brooklyn right before the All Star break. The Raptors returned from the break to win two straight but head to Denver after dropping back-to-back home games to the Milwaukee Bucks and Charlotte Hornets. The 40-19 Nuggets have been near the top of the Western Conference all season but have lost three of their last five games, including Friday's 132-103 loss at the Los Angeles Clippers. Denver never led, and the game wasn't competitive in the second half, prompting head coach Michael Malone to call his team's play 'soft!'
Toronto is 17-3 over its last 20 but at 42-17, still trail the 51-8 Bucks by NINE games in the East. There will be no catching Milwaukee, as the Raptors embark on a five-game road trip through the Western Conference. However, staying at No. 2 in the East is a "big deal" (Toronto is just one game up on Boston). The Raptors are on their first losing streak in over two months and look to avoid their first three-game slide since early December. Toronto features SIX double digit scorers and all but Anunoby (10.3 & 5.4) has double digut games (he's missed just one). Siakam (23.7-7.5-3.4) has missed 11 games, Lowry (19.2-4.8-7.7) has missed 12, VanVleet (17.6-3.8-6.6) has missed 11, Ibaka (15.9 & 8.) has missed 12 and Powell (15.5) has missed 20. Toronto got one player back but lost two more on Friday. Norman Powell reentered the lineup for the first time since suffering a broken finger on Jan 31 but guard Fred VanVleet sat out to rest a sore shoulder and forward Serge Ibaka missed the game with knee soreness (both players are listed as day-to-day). Center Marc Gasol (7.8 & 6.5) hasn't played since Jan 30 because of his left hamstring injury.
Denver has had its fair share of nagging injuries but currently, all hands are on deck. However, one couldn't tell by its Friday effort. Center Jokic is again leading the etam in scoring (20.8), rebounding (10.0) and assists (6.7). PG Murray (18.7-3.9-4.8), SF Barton (14.8-6.4-3.8), PF Millsap (11.8 & 5.8) and SG Harris (10.1) round out the starting lineup. Grant (11.7 & 3.6), Porter (7.8 & 4.3) and Plumlee (7.3 & 5.5) are the frontcourt reserves, while PG Morris (8.5 & 3.6 APG) helps out Murray and Harris in the backcourt. Jokic (25.5 & 10.0) and Murray (23.6) have both been outstanding in February and when healthy (that's the current status), the Nuggets' depth matches ANY team in the league.
Friday's effort was abysmal (I had the Clippers as my Game of the Month) but off that 'ugly' performance, I see them bouncing back in a big way. Denver proved it could handle the defending champs last season, winning both meetings vs the Kawhi version of the Raptors, as the Nuggets finished with the NBA's best home record (34-7). Denver has a 23-7 SU mark at the Pepsi Center this season and has covered SEVEN of its last 10 at home. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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03-01-20 |
Wichita State v. SMU -1 | Top | 66-62 |
Loss | -109 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* play is on SMU at 4:00 ET.
The Wichita State Shockers are traveling to the Moody Coliseum in Dallas, Texas to face off against the SMU Mustangs. The Shockers are 21-7 on the year and the Mustangs 19-8, with both teams checking in at 9-6 in conference play. Gregg Marshall led Winthrop to seven NCAA appearances in nine seasons and since taking over in Wichita, entered this season with a string of 10 consecutive seasons of 22 or more wins, including FOUR, 30-win seasons. In that 10-year span, the Shockers have been to seven NCAA tourneys (including a Final 4 appearance in 2013) and in three NITs (won title in 2011). Wichita St opened 15-1 (3-0 in AAC) and was ranked 16th in mid-January but is just 6-6 since that time (2-4 on the road). Tim Jankovich won 20-plus games in four of his five seasons at Illinois St, making four NIT appearances. He was announced as SMU's Associate Head Coach and coach-in-waiting in April of 2016 and then as head coach on July 8, 2016. He's had to bear the full force of NCAA sanctions due to Larry Brown's tenure but things are looking up this season. SMU breezed through a not-so-difficult non-conference schedule and few are complaining in Dallas with the Mustangs' 19-8 record.
Marshall's team goes eight-deep, led by sophomore guard Erik Stevenson (1 & 1.64.9). 6-10 senior center Echenique (11.4 & 7.0) comes in right behind Stevenson and just ahead of a quartet of guards, Burton (10.1-3.4-3.4), Etienne (9.9), Dennis (8.5 & 4.8) and Sherfeld (8.8). The 6-6 Wade (7.6 & 5.7), a transfer from UTEP. starts up front plus the 6-8 Udeze (4.4 & 2.9) provides depth.
Jankovich has two guards and two forwards making most of the contributions for his SMU team this season. PG Kendric Davis (a TCU transfer) owns a line of 15.0-4.4-6.9 and is joined in the backcourt by JC transfer Tyson Jolly (14.8 & 6.3). Then there are two 6-8 forwards, Isiaha Mike (13.8 & 6.3) and Feron Hunt (11.3 & 6.1). The 6-9 Chargois, who averaged 12.4 & 6.2 last season, continues to under-perform (6.8 & 3.7).
SMU has been sensational at Moody Coliseum, going 15-1 (lone loss back on Dec 7 to Georgetown?) and while the early-season Shockers might have won a game like this, the current version is NOT up to the task. Home team is the play.
Good luck...Larry
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03-01-20 |
Indiana v. Illinois -5.5 | Top | 66-67 |
Loss | -106 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Illinois at 2:00 ET.
Indiana is 18-10 (8-9 Big Ten) and will visit 18-10 Illinois (11-6 Big Ten) on Sunday, as the Big Ten concludes its second-to-last week of the regular season. Archie Miller began his third season as Indiana's head coach in 2019-20 and KNEW he had better improve on the 16 and 19-win seasons the Hoosiers delivered in his first two seasons at Bloomington. Indiana lost two NBA players from last year's team, guard Langford (16.5 & 5.4) and the 6-7 Morgan (15.5 & 8.2), but this year's team got off to an 11-1 start. The Hoosiers moved to 15-4 with a home win over Michigan St on Jan 23 but they then lost FOUR in a row. Indiana split its next four games but comes into this one off a loss 57-49 at Purdue, with its NCAA at-large hopes taking a big hit.
Brad Underwood was a head coach at Stephen F Austin and Oklahoma St before being hired at Illinois back on March 18, 2017. He signed a six-year contract through 2023 worth $18 million but after two seasons in Champaign, his Fighting Illini were just 26-39 (11-27 in Big Ten play). However, as Underwood entered the current season, he returned FOUR starters from last season's team plus added 6-9 freshman center Kofi Cockburn. Illinois can reach 20 wins for the first time since the 2016-17 season when it hosts Indiana on Sunday. The Fighting Illini have won three straight games, including a 74-66 victory over Northwestern on Thursday. After Saturday's results, Illinois and Wisconsin are both 11-6, behind only Michigan St (12-6) and Maryland (13-5) in the tightly contested Big Ten.
Highly-touted 6-9 freshman Jackson-Davis (13.8 & 8.0) has been as good as advertised plus he's joined up front by returning 6-7 forward Smith (10.6 & 5.4) and 6-11 Butler graduate transfer Brunk (7.0 & 5.4). The backcourt has depth in Green (10.6), Durham (9.6) and Phinisee (7.0 & 3.1 APG). Devonte Green scored 11 points and grabbed four rebounds, but was the only Hoosier player to finish in double figures in the loss to Purdue. Trayce Jackson-Davis, who is the reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Week, was limited to six points on 2-of-7 shooting from the floor, after averaging 20 points and 13 rebounds over his previous two games.
The Illini are led PG Ayo Dosunmu (16.4-4.3-3.2)/ 6-9 freshman Cockburn (13.6 *& 9.1) and guard Feliz (10.8-4.9-3.0) join him in double figures, while guards Frazier (9.4) and Griffin (9.4 & 4.8), just miss. The 6-9 Bezhanishvili (8.4 & 4.3) works alongside of Cockburn, up front. Griffin had a career-high 24 points to help the Fighting Illini beat Northwestern for the fourth consecutive time, while Dosunmu added 21 points, six rebounds and four assists, to notch his third 20-point game in his last four outings. Kofi Cockburn produced 12 points and a game-high 14 rebounds to register his 12th double-double of the season.
Thursday's win guarantees Illinois will finish over .500 in Big Ten play for the first time since 2010 but Underwood's team wants more. First, would be securing a top-four finish in the Big Ten which gives them a double-bye in the conference tournament. This is the ONLY meeting between the two schools this season and while Illinois is 13-3 at home, Indiana is just 2-7 on the road, including 2-6 in the Big Ten, winning only at sad-sack Nebraska and sub-.500 Minnesota. Indiana is 5-14 on the road in Big Ten play since the start of the 2018-19 season and DOESN'T improve on that record here. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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03-01-20 |
Western Kentucky v. North Texas -6.5 | Top | 72-78 |
Loss | -109 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* play is on North Texas at 2:00 ET.
The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are on the road for a game with the North Texas Mean Green. Both schools own 19 wins but the Hilltoppers trail the Mean Green in the race for the C-USA regular season title. Western Ky is 12-4, while North Texas is 13-3. Both schools have one more game remaining but since Western Ky won the first meeting (93-84 at home back on Jan 2), a win here would give the Hilltoppers the tiebreaker in case the team's finish with the same record.
Western Kentucky lost the 6-11 Bassey (15.3 & 9.2) back in December for the season and now relies on five guards plus 6-5 forward Williams (13.3 & 6.4), who plays bigger than his height. Hollingsworth.(16 & 4.3) is the team's leading scorer and is joined by four more guards in Savage (11.9 & 7.2), Justice (10.1), Anderson (9.9 & 4.0) and Rawls (7.9). The 6-5 Savage is the team's leading rebounder. North Texas owns a strong trio of guards, led by Gibson (14.9), PG Hamlet (14.2 & 4.7 APG) and Reese (8.9). SF Simms (9.0 & 5.1), the 6-8 Geu (7.6 & 5.6) and the 6-6 Bell (6.1 & 5.8) round out the main frontcourt contributors.
Here's the situation. Western Ky's Jan 2 home win over North Texas was its 10th straight in the series and dropped North Texas to 6-8 on the season (0-1 in C-USA). However, the Mean Green have gone 13-2 (all in league play) since that time and can now clinch the regular season title with a win. Despite the team's 10-game losing streak to Western Ky, you'll note that North Texas is a solid favorite in this game. I agree with the oddsmakers. North Texas says ENOUGH is ENOUGH and wins with room to spare!
Good luck...Larry
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02-29-20 |
Rockets v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 111-110 |
Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Bos Celtics at 8:35 ET.
The Boston Celtics lost SIX of eight from Jan 6-18 but a 139-107 home rout of the Lakers on MLK Day jump-started a 14-3 run, a surge which has the 41-17 Celtics within a half-game of the Raptors for the East's No. 2 seed. The Celtics welcome the 38-20 Houston Rockets to the TD Garden Saturday night (ABC is on hand), looking to avenge one of three loses in their current 14-3 run. The Rockets beat the Celtics 116-105 at home on Feb 11, a victory that jump-started Houston's current five-game winning streak. The Rockets currently own the West's No. 4 seed but are within just 1 1/2 games of the Nuggets and Clippers, who are tied for the No. 2 seed (all three teams want that No. 2, thereby avoiding the Lakers until the conference finals.
When center Clint Capela got hurt (he's since been traded), head coach Mike D’Antoni went to a "small ball" lineup and it has worked well. James Harden (35.3-6.4-7.3) had 42 points, while Russell Westbrook (27.3-7.9-7.2) had 36 in that Feb 11 home win over Boston. These two former MVPs just a combined for 63 points on 24-of-40 shooting, 16 rebounds, 11 assists and five steals in a 140-112 drubbing of the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday. The switch to full-time small ball has had the most impact on Westbrook, who is averaging 33.2 points on 53.6 percent shooting since Jan 9 and is up to 47 percent shooting on the season, the best mark of his career. Eric Gordon (15.2) has only played in two of the team's last eight games (knee) and did not play on Wednesday (questionable, at best, for this one).
Boston features a trio of 20-point scorers in Tatum (23.3 & 7.0), Walker (21.8-4.1-5.0) and Brown (20.4 & 6.4). Hayward (17.1-6.6-4.1) seems fully healthy plus guard Smart (12.6-3.7-4.9) has developed into a team-leader plus is a terrific perimeter defender. The odd center combo of Theis (9.0 & 6.5 in 23 minutes) and Kanter (8.6 & 8.0 in 19 minutes) is working! Boston returned from the break with a four-game road trip and went 3-1 (4-0 ATS) without All-Star PG Kemba Walker, who is questionable for Saturday with a knee injury. Marcus Smart averaged 13.3 points and 6.3 assists while starting in Walker's place and has recorded multiple steals in each of the last three contests. Then there is Jayson Tatum, who is developing into a superstar. He averaged 34.5 points on 56.6 percent shooting on the team's four-game western swing.
The Celtics are on a 14-3 run and take the court having won SEVEN straight at home. That Feb 11 loss is fairly recent and while Harden and Westbrook combined for 78 points in that one, Walker and Tatum combined to make just 10 of 32 shots, including a miserable 1-of-13 night from beyond the arc. Walker is out but as noted above, Boston has "missed a beat." At this price, I'm "all in" on the Celtics in this one!
Good luck...Larry
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02-29-20 |
San Diego State v. Nevada +6 | Top | 83-76 |
Loss | -110 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* CBB Underdog of the Month is on Nevada at 8:00 ET.
San Diego State clinched the Mountain West regular-season championship back on Feb 11 with a win over New Mexico. The fifth-ranked Aztecs now will set their sights on posting the best record in the 21-year history of the conference when they travel to Reno on Saturday to face Nevada in their regular-season finale. The 2004-05 Utah Utes, led by national player of the year and eventual No. 1 overall NBA Draft pick Andrew Bogut, compiled the best mark in Mountain West history with a 13-1 record (.929). However, the 27-1 Aztecs can top that by finishing 17-1 (.944) in league play with a victory over the 19-10 Nevada Wolf Pack who enter the contest with a season-high six-game win streak and in a tie for second place in the MWC with Utah State at 12-5.
The Aztecs bounced back from their lone loss of the season (66-63 at home to UNLV last Saturday) with a 66-60 Senior Night win over Colorado State on Tuesday, using a late 13-0 run to rally from a seven-point second-half deficit. Guard Malachi Flynn led the way, scoring 10 of San Diego State's final 17 points and finishing with 17 points, six rebounds and four assists, while forward Matt Mitchell added 15 points. FIVE Aztec players have played in all 28 games, averaging at lead 26-plus minutes. PG Flynn (16.9-4.4-5.1) leads the team in scoring and assists and is joined in the starting lineup by fellow guards Schakel (10.1) and Feagin (8.5-3.1-3.0). Two 6-10 players, Wetzell (11.7 & 6.5) and Mensah (6.9 & 6.8), plus SF Mitchell (12.5 PPG & 4.9), are the frontcourt contributors. SDSU has been known for its defense since Fisher arrived in San Diego and current head coach Brian Dutcher (he was on Fisher's staff in Michigan and SDSU), preaches the same 'sermon.' The Aztecs are allowing 58.6 PPG, 3rd-best in the NCAA.
Eric Mussleman led Nevada to the CBI title in his first season (2015-16) and then to three straight NCAA appearances with win totals of 28, 29 and 29. However, Musselman left for Arkansas and was replaced by Steve Alford. The former Indiana star had coaching success at Missouri St and New Mexico but was generally viewed as a 'flop' at UCLA, where he was fired during last season. He took over a Nevada team that lost all FIVE starters but Alford's done a good job, as the Wolf Pack are headed for a 20-win season. Jalen Harris, a La Tech transfer, leads the way averaging 21.8-6.5-3.9. He's joined by returning guards Johnson (16.0), Drew (11.6-6.7-4.2) and Zouzoua (9.8). No frontcourt player averages more than 20 minutes per game but a "group of four" combine to add 18.9 PPG and 16.3 RPG. Two 6-10 big men, freshman Meeks (6.7 & 3.9) and senior Reyes (4.7 & 4.3), are the best of the bunch.
I'm sure SDSU would like to finish 17-1 in MWC play but I don;7't see that a much of a motivating factor. A perfect regular season is another thing but that 'dream' was smashed last Saturday by UNLV. As for Nevada, Alford has done quite a job at Reno and the Wolf Pack would 'LOVE' to win here, giving the Aztecs something to think about if the schools meet in the MWC tourney. Nevada is riding a 20-game conference homecourt winning streak (dating back to Feb 7, 2018) so I'm taking the points with this 'live' home underdog!
Good luck...Larry
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02-29-20 |
Arizona State v. USC -3 | Top | 61-71 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* play is on USC at 8:00 ET.
Bobby Hurley won two national titles as Duke's PG (1991 and 1992) but was always destined to get into the 'family business,' as his father is Bob Hurley, Sr, the legendary high school coach of St Anthony's (NJ). Hurley's first job was at Buffalo and in his second season, led the Bulls to an NCAA berth. He used that as springboard to take the Arizona St job in 2015-16. However, he opened with back-to-back losing seasons (15 wins each year). Hurley's 2017-18 squad snuck into the "Big Dance" as a First Four team and the Sun Devils were back 'dancing' again last season, losing in the Round of 64 to finish 23-11. ASU was just 10-7 (1-3 in the Pac 12) in mid-January but the Sun Devils came to visit the Pac-12's two LA schools (UCLA and USC) this weekend in sole possession of first place in the conference at 10-4. It's the first time the Sun Devils have led the league this late in a season since joining the conference in 1978-79. However, despite a 30-point performance from point guard Remy Martin (19.5) and 23 points from senior guard Rob Edwards (11.3), ASU lost 75-52 at UCLA on Thursday (the game featured eight ties and 12 lead changes).
Andy Enfield came to USC with unlimited fanfare. He led Florida Gold Coast to 26 wins and a Sweet 16 appearance back in the 2012-13 season and used that as a springboard to come to LA. He also brought along stock in a company he helped manage to more than $100 million in net worth plus a beautiful former model of a wife (the perfect fit for California). However, he's had three winning and three losing seasons at USC. Last year's team was just 16-17 but this year team (now 20-9 / 9-7 in the Pac 12) took another step closer toward securing an NCAA Tournament at-large berth and a coveted top-four finish in the congested Pac-12 on Thursday night when it grinded out a 57-48 victory over visiting Arizona. 6-9 freshman forward Onyeka Okongwu recorded his 11th double-double with 11 points and 10 rebounds to go with four blocks in the win (he's averaging team highs in points at 16.5 and rebounds at 8.9). Senior guard Jonah Mathews (12.9) and 6-11 senior Nick Rakocevic (10.6 & 8.7) became the 41st and 42nd players in school history to reach the 1,000-point mark, early this season.
When all the dust had settled from Thursday, Oregon and UCLA sat atop the Pac 12 at 11-5, ASU was next at 10-5, Colorado at 10-6, Arizona at 9-6 and USC at 8-7. ASU is trying to avoid a 'lost' weekend in LA but that's exactly what I see happening. USC lost just 66-64 at Tempe (Feb 8) and is 12-2 at home this season, including going 8-1 its last nine.
Good luck...Larry
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02-29-20 |
Duke v. Virginia OVER 123.5 | Top | 50-52 |
Loss | -114 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Duke/UVA Over at 6:00 ET.
Virginia won the school's first-ever national championship last season but gone from that team are its top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). The Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it lost 60-53 at BC on Jan 4. That defeat was the start of UVA losing FOUR of five. However, the surging Cavs have now won FIVE straight and EIGHT of nine to reach 20.7. They are 12-5 and solidly in 4th-place in the ACC (no more wavering NCAA Tourney worries). Meanwhile, the Duke Blue Devils have lost TWO of their last three, one being a 22-point setback at North Carolina State and the most recent a double-overtime defeat at Wake Forest on Tuesday in which the sub-.500 Demon Deacons scored 113 points. Duke is ranked No. 7 in the latest AP poll at 23-5 (13-4 ACC) but all of sudden, UVA can tie Duke for 3rd in the ACC with a home win on Saturday.
"I'm disappointed in our group," Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski told reporters Tuesday. "I didn't think we came the way we should and the way we've practiced. We show our youth so much. ... This is our 28th game. You'd hope that we'd be older by now, but we were not tonight." In contrast, the Cavaliers are showing plenty of maturity by surviving a string of close games, as SEVEN of their victories during the 8-1 surge have come by seven points or fewer. I'm no big fan of this Duke team but I won't play against them off that embarrassing loss to Wake. However, Duke averages 83.8 PPG (2nd) and just FOUR of its 28 games ha seen a total close at less than 140 points (note: all FOUR have gone Over!). The over/under here opened 123!!! I'm Goin' Over!
Good luck...Larry
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02-29-20 |
Utah v. California +1.5 | Top | 79-86 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* play is on California.
Mark Fox had a terrific run at Nevada, winning 20-plus games in each of his five seasons at Reno, making three NCAA tourneys. He used that as a 'springboard' to coach in the SEC at Georgia but his nine-year stay in Athens was a huge disappointment, with just four, 20-win seasons and only TWO appearances in the "Big Dance." This is his first season at Berkeley and while Cal may be just 12-16, that's quite an improvement after recording EIGHT victories in each of the last two seasons. Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak is in his ninth season at Utah but after back-to-back NCAA teams in 2014-15 (26 wins) and 2015-16 (27 wins), the Utes began this season off three straight non-NCAA seasons. The Utes did go 9-3 in non-conference play but enter this game 15-13, including 6-10 in Pac 12 play.
Utah is led by 6-6 sophomore Timmy Allen (17.8 & 5.1) and he scored 17 points in Wednesday’s 70-62 loss at Stanford. Meanwhile. Cal's sophomore guard Matt Bradley (17.8) made five 3-pointers and matched his career high with 26 points in Thursday’s 76-62 win over No. 20 Colorado, as Cal ended a five-game losing streak against the Buffaloes. This has been a nice turnaround season for Cal and the Bears are 11-5 at Haas Pavilion this season, going 7-1 ATS at home in Pac 12 play. As for Utah, the Utes are 1-9 SU on the road this season, including 0-8 in Pac 12 play. Why should Utah win here?
Good luck...Larry
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02-29-20 |
Florida v. Tennessee OVER 130.5 | Top | 58-63 |
Loss | -109 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on Florida/Tennessee Over at 2:00 ET.
Expectations were high for Florida entering this season, as the Gators were able to get the most sought after graduate transfer on the market in the 6-10 Kerry Blackshear. The Orlando native played at Va Tech but when Tech head coach Buzz Williams left for A&M, Blackshear decided to 'come home.' The Gators were ranked 6th in both preseason polls but disappointed early on. However, the Gators are coming off one of their most impressive victories of the season, 15-point victory at home over LSU on Wednesday. Florida is now 18-10 and in a three-way tie for 3rd in the SEC at 10-5 (just ONE game back of 11-4 Auburn, the SEC's No. 2 seed). Rick Barnes lost plenty from last year's team, most notably, two-time SEC player of the year, Grant Williams. He then lost senior PG Lamonte Turner (12.3-3.5-7.1) for the season after 11 games to shoulder surgery. The Volunteers get set to host the Gators at just 15-13 overall, including 7-8 in SEC play.
Sophomore SF Keyontae Johnson had a career-high 25 points and 11 rebounds in the win over LSU and now leads the Gators in scoring (14.3 PPG), while adding 7.2 PPG. The 6-10 Blackshera is right behind him at 13.1 PPG and just a little bit ahead of him with 7.5 RPG. PG Andrew Nembhard (11.8 & 5.4 APG) leads an excellent guard trio that also includes Locke (10.1) and Lewis (8.20.
The loss of Turner hurt but the good news was freshman guard Santiago Vescovi surprisingly became eligible in December and he's averaged 11.0-3.4-3.9 in 16 games since joining the team. Veteran guards Bowden (13.8 & 4.0) and Pons (11.0 & 5.4) are both in double figures, as is the 6-9 Fulkerson (12.8 & 6.0). 6-6 freshman Jordan-Jones (7.0 & 5.5) has also been a solid addition.
The Volunteers set themselves up for failure by falling behind 14-1 less than five minutes into the game at Arkansas on Wednesday (lost 86-69). "I am troubled (by it) because it's the same old record. We keep talking about it," head coach Rick Barnes told the media of the slow starts. "It's just guys that aren't doing what they need to do. Just not executing." The Vols should start better here vs Florida (could they start worse?) but slowing the Gators will not be easy. Florida has won FOUR of five (lone loss at now-No. 8 Kentucky) and has averaged 77.0 PPG in those four wins. This over/under is a little low, considering the way Florida's offense is clicking plus noting that SEVEN of Tennessee's last 10 games have gone over. This one is Goin' Over!
Good luck...Larry
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02-29-20 |
Penn State v. Iowa -4 | Top | 68-77 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 17 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Iowa at 12 noon ET. Maryland (13-4) leads the Big Ten, with four schools tied for second at 10-6. 21-7 Penn St is one of those four teams and at 12 noon ET will play in Iowa City against the 19-9 Iowa Hawkeyes, who are ranked 18th in the latest AP poll but find themselves at just 10-7 in Big Ten play. The key being, the top-four teams in next month's Big Ten tournament receive an automatic bye to the quarterfinals, avoiding the extra game that comes with finishing fifth through 10th, or two extra games, finishing No. 11 or worse. These schools met back on Jan 4, with Penn St winning 89-86 in a game played NOT at the Nittany Lions' on-campus Bryce Jordan Center but rather at the Palestra in Philadelphia.
Penn St won the NIT back in 2018 (26 wins) but fell off badly last season, finishing 14-18 (7-13 in the Big Ten). However, the Nittany Lions returned FOUR starters and have impressed so far this season. The Nittany Lions are currently ranked but they entered the AP poll back on Dec 16 (at No. 23). That gave the school its first top-25 ranking since March of 1996. Sounds impressive, right? It's even more so when one realizes that Penn St's previous top-25 ranking (to 1996) came back in 1954! Penn State climbed to No. 9 in the poll last week (matching the school's best-ever ranking) but then lost two in a row. However, Penn State kept its Big Ten regular-season title hopes alive with a 65-64 victory over Rutgers on Wednesday. The Nittany Lions had led by as many as 18 points before escaping with a last-minute victory, and they aim to take another step towards securing a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament by sweeping the season series with the Hawkeyes. Izaiah Brockington (8.9) scored a game-high 16 points (off the bench). The 6-8 Lamar Stevens (17.6 & 6.8) is Penn State's best player but was limited to nine points to see his streak of games scoring in double figures end at 41 in a row. Worrisome these days for Penn St is guard Myreon Jones (14.1), who hasn't played since Feb 4, missing SIX games with an undisclosed illness.
The Hawkeyes are coming off a 78-70 setback at 24th-ranked Michigan State on Tuesday. The 6-11 Luka Garza scored a team-best 20 points and pulled down nine rebounds against Michigan State to record his 13th straight 20-point game in conference play. He's the Big Ten's best "big man," averaging 23.6 & 9.6 on the season. The 6-10 Ryan Kriener (7.9 & 4.) also had a big game, adding 18 points and seven rebounds, while Connor McCaffery (6.1-4.1-6.1). Good news seems to be coming Iowa's way, as freshman guard CJ Fredrick, who is averaging 10.7 points, is expected to return to the lineup after missing the last three games with a sprained ankle. He'll join Wieskamp (14.5 & 6.1) and Toussaint (6.5) and McCaffrey on the perimeter.
Iowa lost to Pent St in early January, despite Garza scoring 34 and Weiskamp adding 23. Expect a different outcome here, especially with Penn St missing Jones. The Hawkeyes are one of SIX teams with 10 or more Big Ten victories and getting a top-four seed in the Big Ten tourney is HUGE (see above). Carver-Hawkeye Arena is known for its hostile crowds and is ONE a tough venue. Iowa has won 12 consecutive home games since a loss to DePaul back on Nov 11 and takes a 13-1 record this season into this game, as well as a 31-5 SU the last two seasons at home. Expect the Hawkeyes to make it a "lucky" 13 straight home wins here, "with room to spare!"
Good luck...Larry
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02-28-20 |
Nuggets v. Clippers -5.5 | Top | 103-132 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the LA Clippers at 10:35 ET.
The 45-12 Lakers continue to hold onto the West's No. 1 seed. Tonight in Staples Center, the Lakers' two-closest competitors, the 40-18 Denver Nuggets (5 1/2 back) will take on the LA Clippers (6 1/2 back). Injuries have hampered both teams throughout the season but that hasn't prevented them from being among the leaders in the Western Conference standings. The Nuggets and Clippers both expect to be at full strength for their Friday night showdown in Los Angeles. The Nuggets have played without Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, Jamal Murray, Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr. for time this season but all are expected to play on Friday. The Clippers have been without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley for stretches this season as well, but that trio is "set to go," as are recently acquired Marcus Morris (from the NYK) and backup PG Reggie Jackson (from the Pistons).
Just like last season, center Nikola Jokic leads the team in scoring (20.8), rebounding (6.8) and assists (6.8). Joining him in a now-heathy starting lineup are PF Milsap (12.1 & 5.9) and SF Barton (14.8-6.4-3.8) up front, plus PG Murray (18.9-3.9-4.8) and SG Harris (10.2) in the backcourt. Depth is a team strength with frontcourt players Grant (11.5 & 3.6), Porter (7.9 & 4.4) and Plumlee (7.3 & 5.5) plus guard Morris (8.5 & 3.6 APG). Guard Patrick Beverley (8.5-5.7-3.9) is back from injury (he’s also back up to his full minutes allotment) plus fellow guard Shamet (10.4) has proven himself to be a solid NBA player. PF Morris has averaged 11.7 PPG in his six games with LA and scored 18 points, his most in six games since being acquired by the Clippers, in LA's last game. PG Reggie Jackson scored 12 points in 16 minutes in his third game with Los Angeles, as the team showed off its new depth.
These teams met back in Denver on Jan 12, with the Nuggets prevailing 114-104. However, George missed that game plus LA had yet to acquire Morris and Jackson. Gaining the No. 2 seed is huge, as that means avoiding the Lakers until the conference finals. Leonard and George 'drive the engine' but the Clippers now have the surrounding pieces to "state their case." Expect a 'BIG' statement, here!
Good luck...Larry
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02-28-20 |
Kings v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 104-101 |
Loss | -110 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Mem Grizzlies at 8:05 ET.
The Memphis Grizzlies embarked on a four-game Western swing right after the All Star break and 'limp' home after going 0-4 SU and ATS. The now 28-30 Grizzlies have fallen 7 1/2 games back of Dallas (No. 7) but still lead the race for the No. 8 seed (final playoff spot), THREE games clear of Portland and New Orleans. Memphis hosts the Kings tonight and the Lakers on Saturday but then are back out on the road for SIX of its next eight games. The Kings opened Memphis four-game road trip by beating The Grizz 119-115 back on Feb 20 in Sacramento but saw a three-game winning streak end last night in a 112-108 loss at OKC. The Kings are 24-34, leaving them FOUR games back of the Grizzlies for the West's final playoff spot.
PG De'Aaron Fox (19.9-4.1-6.9) missed Thursday's game due to lower abdominal tightness, although he indicated postgame that he hopes to be in the lineup against the Grizzlies. Veteran Cory Joseph (6.4) started in Fox's place and handed out 11 assists, his second-best total this season. A healthy Fox and Hield (20.1-4.9-3.2) give Sacramento an impressive young backcourt duo, while Bogdanvich (14.4) can be counted on to provise consistent scoring on the perimeter. With Marvin Bagley III (14.2 & 7.5) and Richard Holmes (13.1 & 8.5) out of action, Harrison Barnes has helped take up the scoring slack for the Kings. He's proven to be a consistent scorer since leaving Golden St, first for Dallas and now for Sacramento (15.0 & 4.7). He had 32 points, including seven 3-pointers, in the win over the Grizzlies last week, then contributed 21 points to the win over Golden State on Tuesday and had another 21-point effort in Thursday's loss to Oklahoma City. Big men Alex Len (4.7 & 7.7), Harry Giles III (6.4 & 4.0) and Nemanja Bjelica (12.1 & 6.4) combined for 48 points and 28 rebounds while shooting a collective 18-of-27 from the floor in last night's loss.
Rookie PG Ja Morant (team's No. 1 pick in 2019 draft) is averaging 17.5 & 6.8 APG. Memphis chose the 6-11 Jarren Jackson in the 1st round of the 2018 draft and he averages 16.9 & 4.7. SG Dillon Brooks (15.3 PPG), while SF Clarke (also a 1st round pick from 2019, 21st overall) is averaging 12.0 & & 5.8. Veteran center Valanciunas (14.5 & 10.5) has really turned out to be a valuable addition. However, here's the rub. Jackson Jr. (knee) missed his second straight game and is still about 10 days away from being re-evaluated. Valuable reserve Brandon Clarke was lost to a strained right quad on the recent road trip and he is out indefinitely.
Both teams are 'hurting' to some extent (we are not sure Fox will play tonight) but this feels like a "must-win" for the Grizzlies, who will host the "Best in the West" Lakers, Saturday night (then play six of their next eight on the road). Memphis has been nearly unbeatable at the FedExForum since mid-December, going 13-2 SU and 12-3 ATS (80%). I'm backing the home team.
Good luck...Larry
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02-28-20 |
Wright State v. Northern Kentucky -3 | Top | 64-62 |
Loss | -107 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Northern Kentucky at 7:00 ET. Wright St and Northern Kentucky tied for first in the Horizon League last season but the Norse beat the Raiders in the Horizon title game to advance to the "Big Dance." The two schools meet tonight in the regular season finale for each, with 24-6 Wright St owning 14-3 league record, while 21-8 Northern Kentucky checks in at 13-4. A win by the home team would mean a first place tie again but the raiders own the tie-breaker, meaning they will enter the conference tourney as the No. 1 seed, giving then the home court edge if the team's meet in the title game, again.
Scott Nagy had a long run of success at South Dakota St and has now won 20-plus games in each of his first four seasons at Wright St. The Raiders own a STRONG starting-five, led by the 6-8 Love (16.1 & 9.5) and the 6-6 Wampler (15.9 & 4.3). A trio of guards join them in the starting lineup, Holden (12.3 & 6.6), Gentry (11.0) and Hall (7.8-3.7-3.0). The Raiders are one of the nation's highest scoring teams (82.0 PPG ranks 5th) and have gone 10-4 SU in road and neutral games this season.
John Brannen led the Northern Kentucky Norse to three straight 20-plus winning seasons the previous three years and to the "Big Dance" in two of those three seasons. However, he left for the 'greener pastures' of Cincinnati after the conclusion of last season. Darrin Horn, who and excellent head coaching success at Western Kentucky but flopped at South Carolina, took over. Horn had recently been an assistant for Shaka Smart at Texas and his Norse can tie for the regular season title with a win in this one. 6-7 senior swingman Dantez Walton was lost to an arm injury in December but returned on Jan 31. He's the team's top scorer (16.4) and rebounder (6.9) and is joined in the starting lineup by guards Sharpe (15.2), Tate (12.8-5.2-3.7) and Faulkner (12.2 & 4.1), plus the 6-5 Adheke (3.9 & 4.9).
Northern Kentucky was no match Wright St back on Jan 24, as the Raiders routed the Norse 95-63. Wright St shot 61% (including 12 of 22 on threes), as all five starters were in double digits. The Norse were not just awful on the defense end of that game but shot just 39.4% from the floor, including 4 of 22 on threes. However, Walton was NOT available for that contest and the Norse have won SEVEN of eight since that contest. Wright St has the No. 1 seed locked up (win or lose) and this is the team's THIRD straight road game, although the Raiders have had SIX days off since their last contest. Still, I see Northern Kentucky wanting this game VERY badly, as after losing by 30-plus points at Wright St in the first meeting, a home loss to the Raiders here would leave them with little confidence in a likely THIRD meeting this season in the conference title game, which would be played in the Nutter Center in Dayton, Wright St's homecourt. I'm on the Norse.
Good luck...Larry
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02-27-20 |
Arizona State v. UCLA -3.5 | Top | 72-75 |
Loss | -109 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* West Coast Crusher is on UCLA at 11:00 ET. Bobby Hurley won two national titles as Duke's PG (1991 and 1992) but was always destined to get into the 'family business,' as his father is Bob Hurley, Sr, the legendary high school coach of St Anthony's (NJ). Hurley's first job was at Buffalo and in his second season, led the Bulls to an NCAA berth. He used that as springboard to take the Arizona St job in 2015-16. However, he opened with back-to-back losing seasons (15 wins each year). Hurley's 2017-18 squad snuck into the "Big Dance" as a First Four team and the Sun Devils were back 'dancing' again last season, losing in the Round of 64 to finish 23-11. ASU was just 10-7 (1-3 in the Pac 12) in mid-January but the Sun Devils visit the Pac-12's two LA schools (UCLA and USC) this weekend in sole possession of first place in the conference at 10-4. It's the first time the Sun Devils have led the league this late in a season since joining the conference in 1978-79. Mick Cronin started his career by leading Murray St to two NCAA tourneys in his three seasons at the school and then took over at Cincinnati for Bob Huggins. He didn't get the Bearcats to the "Big Dance" until his FIFTH season (2010-11) but that began a run of NINE consecutive NCAA appearances. He took the UCLA job before the start of the current season but the Bruins got off to a slow Pac-12 start, winning only one of their first four contests. However, "The Mick Cronin lessons" have begun to click, as the Bruins have won NINE of their last 11 (all in Pac 12 play) and at 10-5, are in a three-way tie with No. 14 Oregon and No. 21 Colorado, just a half-game back of ASU. The Sun Devils are the hottest team in the conference with a SEVEN-game win streak but the Bruins aren't far behind with a FIVE-game streak. A key to the Sun Devils' recent surge has been the play of junior guard Alonzo Verge Jr. (14.6 & 3.5), who averaged 21.5 points in last weekend's home sweep of the Oregon schools, including a game-high 26 points in a 77-72 upset of No. 14 Oregon. He is averaging 20.7 points off the bench during the team's seven-game win streak. However, it's junior PG Remy Martin who is second in the Pac-12 in scoring (19.1) plus also leads the team in assists (4.0) and steals (1.6) while Verge, the frontrunner for conference Sixth Man of the Year, is second in scoring (14.6). Senior guard Rob Edwards (10.9) and 6-8 junior forward Romello White (10.5) also are averaging double figures, with White also grabbing a conference-best 9.2 RPG. However, NO other player aveages more than 5.0 PPG for the Sun Devils. UCLA was just 8-9 after a 74-59 home loss to Stanford on Jan 15 but has gone 9-2 since then to move within a half-game of first place, plus has also put themselves in a position to be considered " in the conversation" for a potential NCAA Tournament at-large berth. 6-9 swingman Chris Smith is the only UCLA player averaging double figures with 13.2 PPG (also 5.4 RPG) and he’s stepped things up of late, averaging 16.2 points during UCLA's FIVE-game winning streak. Unlike Arizona St, UCLA has the kind of depth that sees SEVEN more UCLA players are averaging 16 minutes or more. The 6-10 Jalen Hill tops that group at 9.2 PPG plus also owns a team-best 6.9 RPG. The 6-9 Cody Riley averages 8.5 & 4.5 plus a group of five guards combine to add 34.1 PPG. ASU's win streak has been dominated by "close wins," except the team's 18-point blowout of UCLA back on Feb 6 (ASU's other six wins have come by a combined 22 points!). However, it shouldn't go unmentioned that Jalen Hill missed that game with a sprained right knee. The Bruins know the school's past domination will NEVER be matched in the current 'culture' of college hoops but Cronin is a "winner" and this is the type of game he was brought in to win. Cronin joked when asked about Thursday night's first-place showdown saying, "It's great. Obviously, we all saw this coming five weeks ago. Everybody on the outside, the sky was falling and now it's all -- well, it is beautiful and sunny, we're in Westwood. If you're a recruit, that's how it is here -- everything's rosy." I'm backing UCLA. Good luck...Larry |
02-27-20 |
Youngstown State v. Green Bay -4 | Top | 92-102 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Green Bay at 8:00 ET.
The Youngstown State Penguins and Green Bay Phoenix meet Thursday in Horizon League action. Both schools are 9-7 in conference play, with no chance of catching the Horizon's top-two schools, 14-3 Wright St and 13-4 Northern Kentucky. Green Bay has the greater depth, as EIGHT players are seeing 15-plus minutes of "PT," led by PG McCloud (17.3-4.9-4.5) plus fellow guards Davis (16.1) and Hankerson (10.9). Youngstown PG Quisenberry (16.2-3.7-4.1) doesn't gets the kind of help McCloud (his counterpart) gets at Green Bay on the perimeter but in the 6-6 Bohannon (10.9 & 8.8) and the 6-8 Akuchie (8.8 &n 6.1), Youngstown has an advantage up front.
Youngstown St has played just five road games in 2020, going 1-4 SU. In stark contrast, Green Bay returns home here, after FIVE consecutive road games! This is a tough spot for Youngstown, which just hosted the Horizon's top-two teams, upsetting Wright St and then losing by just TWO points to Northern Kentucky. Meanwhile, Green Bay has to 'LOVE' being back home and will be eager to avenge a 98-94 OT loss at Youngstown back on Jan 25. The last home game for Green Bay was back on Feb 2, when the Phoenix upset Wright St, 92-89. Lay the points with team averaging 81.5 PPG (5th-best in the nation).
Good luck...Larry
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02-27-20 |
Drexel v. NC-Wilmington | | 65-76 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
My 8* play is on NC-Wilmington at 7:00 ET.
The Drexel Dragons and the UNC-Wilmington Seahawks meet in CAA college basketball action from the Trask Coliseum on Thursday night. Drexel is 13-16 (6-10 CAA) and Wilmington 9-20 (4-12 CAA). However, while Drexel owns a better record, the Dragons 'limp in' off FIVE straight losses, as well as EIGHT in their last nine games. The Seahawks hardly enter on a roll, although they did beat Charleston 68-55 in their last game.
Drexel is led by PG Wynter (16.1-3.9-5.3), the 6-8 Butler (13.5 & 11.6) and guard Walton (12.1 & 4.1), although no other player averages as much as 6.0 PPG. Wilmington owns some nice balance, as FIVE palmers score between 9.0 and 12.6 PPG. Guards Sims (12.6 & 5.5) and Gadsden (10.5) plus the 6-8 Linssen (10.0 & 4.6) lead the way. The bottom line is this. Wilmington may be just 7-7 at home but the Seahawks surely have enough to beat a Drexel team which is just 1-11 SU on the road this season (lone win at James Madison, which is 2-14 in the CAA).
Good luck...Larry
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02-27-20 |
Wisconsin v. Michigan -6.5 | Top | 81-74 |
Loss | -100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Big Ten Showdown is on Michigan at 7:00 ET.
17-10 Wisconsin (10-6 in the Big Ten) will be in Ann Arbor Thursday night to take on 18-9 Michigan (9-7 in the Big Ten). Wisconsin has been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and the Badgers take a four-game winning streak into this contest looking to earn a top-four finish in the Big Ten, while taking another step towards securing an NCAA Tournament bid. The Wolverines have won five consecutive games, including a 71-63 road victory over Purdue on Sunday, to climb back into the top-25 (at No. 22) after a five-week absence. Like Wisconsin, Michigan hopes for a top-four finish in the Big Ten plus add to its at-large resume.
The Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ (17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team but the Badgers have a solid returning core. The 6-11 Reuvers (13.7 & 4.7) may not be Happ but he's a quality man. Wisconsin owns a 'DEEP' backcourt, even though King (10.0) left the team (last game was Jan 24). Trice (9.7-4.1-4.1), Davison (9.6 & 4.2) and Pritzl (8.1 & 3.7) are a quality trio. The 6-10 Micah Potter, an Ohio St transfer who became eligible in December, has averaged 9.5 & 6.0 since joining the team and along with the 6-8 Ford (8.1 & 4.1), support Reuvers up front. Potter matched a career high with four 3-pointers en route to a team-leading 18 points and nine rebounds off the bench in Sunday's 79-71 home win over Rutgers. Pritzl added 17 points on 7-of-10 shooting from the floor while Nate Reuvers scored eight of his 17 points from the free throw line. Davison scored 15 points against the Scarlet Knights to become the 43rd player in program history to reach 1,000 career points.
John Beilein left Michigan to take the head coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers (that went well, didn't it?), after leading the Wolverines to NINE NCAA tourneys in his 12 years (twice lost in the national championship game). Taking over was former Fab Fiver Juwan Howard, who had to replace forward Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 & 5.4) plus guards Jordan Poole (12.8) and Charles Matthews (12.2 & 5.0). Michigan opened the season unranked but began 7-0, after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis (Thanksgiving week). The Wolverines shocked then-No. 6 North Carolina (73-64) and now-No. 2 Gonzaga in the championship game. When "the dust had settled," Michigan wound up No. 4 in the AP poll on Dec 4. However, the Wolverines then went 4-9 over their next 13 games to fall to 11-8, including 2-6 in the Big Ten. Michigan has rebounded though, to win SEVEN of eight, including FIVE straight. The return of the 6-7 Isaiah Livers has been huge, as he's averaged 15.5 PPG over the last four games and leads Michigan in scoring (13.6 PPG). He went 8-of-8 from the charity stripe in the final 90 seconds en route to 19 points, six rebounds and two blocked shots (note: Livers has made 31 straight free throws!). PG Zavier Simpson (12.3-4.4-8.0) ], 7-1 center Jon Teske (12.0 & 7.3) plus guards Brooks (11.0 & 3.7) and Wagner (10.9 & 5.5), round out a group of FIVE double digit scorers. Wagner continued his recent stellar play as he scored a career-high 22 points to go along with five rebounds, three assists and a pair of steals in the win over Purdue.
Michigan has regained its swagger and has held NINE straight opponents to 68 points or less. That's notable considering that Wisconsin averages a modest 66.9 PPG and before scoring 81 points in a Feb 15th win at Nebraska (Huskers are 2-14 in Big Ten play), the Badgers had averaged 57.8 PPG in their first seven Big Ten road games. Wisconsin hasn’t beaten the Wolverines in Ann Arbor since 2015 and WON'T get a win here, or even a cover!
Good luck...Larry
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02-27-20 |
Delaware +4 v. College of Charleston | | 71-80 |
Loss | -102 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
My 8* play is on Delaware at 6:00 ET.
The Delaware Blue Hens are 20-9 (10-6 in CAA), as they look to avenge a 75-63 home loss (back on Dec 30) to the College of Charleston Cougars (15-13 / 9-7 CAA) on Thursday night. The Blue Hens feature a trio of guards in double digits, led by Darling (21.5 & 3.9), who is surrounded by Allen (12.2) and PG Anderson (11.6-3.9-3.7). The frontcourt features big men like the 6-10 Painter (9.5 & 5.7) and the 6-11 Goss (6.4 & 4.4), although the 6-6 Mutts leads the group in scoring (11.9) and rebounding (8.4). Charleston's Riller (21.5-5.4-3.1) has a solid backcourt partner in Galloway (11.3) but the 6-7 McManus (8.4 & 4.4) and the 6-9 Miller (8.1 & 5.8) will have some trouble matching Delaware's trio in the frontcourt.
Charleston will NOT see the same team it did back on Dec 30, as Delaware enters this contest having won EIGHT of its last 10, while Charleston has lost FOUR in a row. Delaware's Martin Ingelsby is a head coach "on the rise," while the Blue Hens’ Nate Darling, is the league's 'hottest' scorer. He's averaging 28.0 points over his last eight games, failing to score 20 or more points just ONCE. Take the points,. No upset here!
Good luck...Larry
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02-26-20 |
Celtics v. Jazz -4.5 | Top | 114-103 |
Loss | -105 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ut Jazz at 10:35 ET.
The 40-17 Boston Celtics will likely never catch the Bucks in the East but the Celtics would 'LOVE' to earn the East's No. 2 seed and they enter this contest just 1 1/2 games back of the defending champion Raptors for that No. 2 spot. The Celtics conclude their post-All Star break four-game road trip with a visit to Salt Lake City tonight to face the 36-21 Utah Jazz. The Jazz have returned from the break to lose THREE straight games (all at home), coting themselves a spot in the West's top-four. The Jazz are currently the No. 5 seed and are just a half-game up on OKC (No. 6 seed) and 1 1/2 games up on Dallas (No. 7 seed).
The Celtics feature three-20-point scorers in Tatum (23.1 & 6.9), Walker (21.8-4.1-5.0) and Brown (20.4 & 6.4), with Haywood (the former Jazz player) close behind at 17.3-6.7-4.2. Marcus Smart (12.5-3.7-4.8) has become an important cog for this team, while Boston has made the center duo of the 6-8 Theis (8.8 & 6.5) and the 6-10 Kanter (8.6 & 8.0) work. Tatum takes the court averaging 36.0 PPG over his last five games, as he's matched his career high of 41 points and also had a 39-point outing during the stretch). However, All-Star PG Kemba Walker (knee) has missed the last three contests. Boston would love to get Walker back in the lineup for the first time on the trip in Utah, but head coach Brad Stevens noted Monday that his title-contending club would rather err on the side of caution with the veteran's sore knee.
The Jazz won 19 of 21 games (16-4-1 ATS) from Dec 11 through Jan 25 but then lost FIVE in a row. Monday's 131-111 loss to the struggling Phoenix Suns drew the following comment from SF Joe Ingles. "When you play the way we've been playing, there's a lot more bad than good right now," he said after the loss. "It's draining. ... It's just embarrassing." Hard to argue. All-Star SG Donovan Mitchell (24.3-4.3-4.3) scored 38 points against Phoenix but was lacking for answers after the latest subpar performance by his team. The 131 points allowed was the second-worst of the season by the Jazz, who compounded their issues by committing 20 turnovers. Utah, which began the season by holding its first five opponents under 100 points, has now allowed 12 of its last 13 foes to score in triple figures, including the last seven in a row.
Ok, so why the Jazz, here? We've seen this team go 19-2, 0-5, 4-0 and now 0-3 since Dec 11. Utah just has too much talent with Bogdanovich (20.6 & 4.2) and Gobert (15.5 & 14.3), not to mention Clarkson (16.3 PPG in 27 games with the Jazz), Conley (13.4 & 4.1 APG), Ingles (9.9-3.9-4.2) and O'Neale (6.0 & 5.2). Boston is playing its FOURTH game in six days and this one is "at altitude," off a game last night in Portland. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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02-26-20 |
Utah v. Stanford -7.5 | Top | 62-70 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* West Coast Crusher is on Stanford at 10:00 ET.
The Utah Utes are 15-12 (6-9 Pac 12) and travel to Palo Alto Wednesday night to take on the 18-9 Stanford Cardinal (7-7 in Pac 12). Stanford looks to avenge an earlier loss to Utah (Utes won 64-56 in OT at Salt Lake City on Feb 6), after ending a four-game slide by sweeping the Washington schools last weekend. Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak is in his ninth season at Utah but after back-to-back NCAA teams in 2014-15 (26 wins) and 2015-16 (27 wins), the Utes began this season off three straight non-NCAA seasons. The Utes did go 9-3 in non-conference play but as noted above, are just 6-9 in Pac 12 play.
The Utes snapped a three-game losing streak with last Sunday’s 79-65 win over USC behind strong outing from junior guard Alfonso Plummer (just 6.4 PPG on the season), who matched his career high with 18 points on five 3-pointers. Coach Larry Krystkowiak has also been pleased by the development of 6-8 freshman Mikael Jantunen (7.1 & 4.4), who is averaging 9.7 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.3 assists in his last three games while shooting 75 percent from the floor. However, the Utes have been led all season by 6-6 sophomore Timmy Allen (17.4 & 7.3) and freshman PG Rylan Jones (10.2-3.0-4.7). The bad news is, Jones is listed as questionable after leaving the USC contest with a leg injury.
Many think that Stanford has a chance to make some 'noise' in the Pac 12 tourney and that's because of the potent duo of 6-9 forward Oscar da Silva (16.0 & 6.5) and freshman PG Tyrell Terry (15.0-4.6-3.2). Five other players chip in between 4.8 and 9.2 PPG, led by 6-7 freshman Jones (9.2. & 3.4) plus guards Davis (8.6 -3.1-3.4) and Wills (7.1 & 4.2). Da Silva suffered a head injury Feb 8 in a loss to Colorado and then missed one game before returning. However, he played 30-plus minutes last week when Stanford swept Washington and Washington St, scoring 35 points, while pulling down 19 rebounds. He's "good to go!"
Here's the bottom line. Utah won 79-74 at Nevada on Nov 15 but has lost all EIGHT road games since, going 1-7 ATS (that's an 88% "go-against"). The Utes needed OT to win at home over the Cardinal and I see little reason to think Stanford will have much trouble avenging that loss, here. Stanford has won NINE of the 12 meetings at Maples Pavilion since Utah joined the Pac 12 and checks in 12-4 SU (10-6 ATS) at home this season. Stanford leads the Pac-12 in scoring defense (allows 61.6 PPG, 13th-best in the nation), while the Utes are 0-7 on the Pac 12 road, being held under 60 points in FOUR of those seven losses. Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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02-26-20 |
Indiana State v. Southern Illinois -2.5 | Top | 77-68 |
Loss | -109 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Southern Illinois at 8:00 ET.
The Indiana State Sycamores and the Southern Illinois Salukis each own 16 wins. The Sycamores won the first meeting (68-56 at home back on Dec 30) but the Salukis enter this contest 10-6 in MVC play, one game better than Indiana St's 9-7 mark. Indiana St has a veteran guard duo in junior Tyreke Key, who leads the Sycamores in scoring at 16.0 PPG. Senior Jordan Barnes also averages in double digits (12.4 PPG) and adds a team-high 3.7 APG. A pair of freshman are the top frontcourt performers, the 6-9 Jake Laravia (9.2 & 5.9) and the 6-7 Christian Williams (7.4 & 4.1). Marcus Domask is a 6-6 freshman swingman and he is the leading scorer for Southern Illinois with an average of 14.3 PPG (also adds 5.6 RPG). Senior guard McGill (11.3 & 4.4) and freshman guard Jones (8.1) are the team's top-producing guards but SIU has depth on the perimeter, as four other guards are combining for 15.4 PPG. The 6-10 Barret Benson joins Domask and McGill in double digits at 10.7 PPG (adds 5.5 RPG).
Here's the bottom line. Indiana St is just 3-8 SU on the road, including 2-6 in MVC play (1-6-1 ATS). Meanwhile, Southern Ilinois is 12-2 SU at home, including a MONEY-MAKING 10-3 ATS. A little in-season "payback" works here, as SIU keeps itself in the MVC's top-four (coveted spot for Arch Madness) in this final week of the regular season. "The Price is Right" for an easy cover!
Good luck...Larry
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02-26-20 |
Virginia v. Virginia Tech OVER 111 | Top | 56-53 |
Loss | -107 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on UVA/Va Tech Over at 7:00 ET.
Virginia won the school's first-ever national championship last season but gone from that team are its top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). The Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it lost and is now 19-7 and at 11-5, is solidly in 4th-place in the ACC. Mike Young spent 17 years at Wofford, where he led the Terriers to five NCAA appearances, including last season. Wofford defeated Seton Hall 84-68 in LY's Big Dance, giving him the first NCAA Tournament win of his career. He took over at Va Tech, when Buzz Williams used Tech's Sweet 16 appearance last season to take the Texas A&M job. Young lost Va Tech's leading scorer from last year (Alexander-Walker at 16.2) to the NBA and couldn't convince the 6-10 Blackshear (14.9 & 7.5) to stay (he's a graduate transfer at Florida). The Hokies surprised by opening 6-0 and after a two-OT win over UNC on Jan 22, were 14-5 (5-3 in the ACC). However, 'the bottom has fallen out' for Va Tech, with SEVEN losses in its last eight games.
UVA's "Core 4" this season has been its unique guard duo of 5-9 PG Clark (10.8-4.2-6.0) and the 6-8 Key (10.0 & 7.2), teamed with the 6-9 Diatke (13.4 & 6.7) and the 7-1 Huff (8.1 & 6.0). However, after a poor start to the season, Tomas Woldentensae (a 6-5 junior guard from Italy) has emerged as the offensive wild card the Cavaliers have been seeking. He's now 30 of 67 (44.8%) from three-point range over his last eight games, while averaging 13.3 PPG. Virginia has found some nice offensive balance in winning SEVEN of eight (lone 'clunker' was a 50-49 OT win over Notre Dame) and has had a different player lead in scoring in each of its last four games.
While UVA has won seven of eight, Va Tech enters this contest having lost seven of eight. The Hokies dropped an 88-64 decision to then-No. 6 Duke the last time out, sinking to 11th in the ACC (15-12 / 6-10). SEVEN of Va Tech's top-eight scorers are guards. Two freshman lead the way, Landers Nolley II (16.7 & 6.1) and Tyrece Radford (10.4 & 6.3). However, Nolley is mired in a dismal shooting slump that has seen him make just 8-of-44 shots, including 2-of-17 from three-point range, in a three-game stretch. Radford is trending in the other direction and after leading the Hokies with 16 points in the loss to Duke, is averaging 16.3 points over a seven-game span on 57.1 percent shooting. 6-5 SF Horne (7.1 & 4.3) is the lone frontcourt player of note but note that Va Tech's two freshman guards are the team's top rebounders (see above).
UVA has a HUGE edge inside with Diatke and Huff plus while the Cavs are surging, the Hokies' season is slipping away. When these teams met back on Jan 4, UVA won 65-39, as Va Tech was a HORRIFIC 13 of 48 from the floor (27.1%), including 4 of 25 on threes. The Hokies CAN'T shoot that poorly again, plus the Cavs have found, at least for them, an offensive 'groove.' Va Tech averages 70.6 PPG and allows 66.8 PPG on the season, so a LOW over/under like this (total opened 113 and immediately, fell) is VERY tempting. A look at Va Tech's entire schedule finds just THREE over/under numbers (of 27 games) closing at less than 130 points. Va Tech has averaged 75,4 PPG at home this season and will bring its "A-game" against the defending champs, after that 'ugly' 39-point effort Jan 4 in Charlottesville. FOUR of UVA's last five games have gone "over the total,' including the last three. Make it FOUR straight 'overs' here!
Good luck...Larry
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02-25-20 |
Missouri State v. Valparaiso -2 | Top | 74-89 |
Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Valparaiso at 8:00 ET. The 14-15 Missouri State Bears and the 15-14 Valparaiso Crusaders meet Tuesday in MVC action (both schools are 8-8) at Valpo's Athletics-Recreation Center. The Bears hired Dana Ford as their head coach in 2018, after he was an unimpressive 57-65 in four years at Tennessee St. Not sure the school should have been too surprised with last year's 16-16 and not much has changed this season, either. Matt Lottich's first season at Valpo saw the Crusaders go 24-9 (2016-17) but the next two seasons saw them finish 15-17 and 15-18. Not much has changed this season for the Crusaders, either.
The Bears are led by guard Cook (14.8 & 4.8) but the loss of PG Dixon (7.2-4.0-3.6) to season-ending shoulder surgery (last played Jan 11), has left the team with a shortage of quality perimeter players. The frontcourt is rotating five players, chipping in between 5.4 and 13.5 PPG. The top performers are 6-8 forwards Prim (13.5 & 4.8) and Da Silva (9.8 & 7.0). The Crusaders are led by freshman PG Freeman-Liberty (19.3-6.0-3.2), who gets help from a trio of guards combining for 17.5 PPG. The 6-8 Ryan Fazekas, a graduate transfer from Marquette, was lost in early January to an ankle injury but he returned in late January. He's played 38 and 37 minutes the last two games, scoring 31 points and is now the team's second-leading scorer at 11.8 PPG. Four other frontcourt players chip in between 5.9 and 9.4 PPG, led by McMillan (9.4 & 3.2) and Clay (8.7 & 4.4).
Missouri St is just 3-9 SU on the road. Two of those wins have come at Illinois St (4-12 in MVC play) and Evansville (0-16). Meanwhile, Valpo is 10-2 SU at home this season, posting a MONEY-MAKING 8-2-1 ATS mark. Valpo is a MUCH-improved team with Fazekas back on the court, giving us great value at this price.
Good luck...Larry
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02-25-20 |
Drake v. Loyola-Chicago -7 | Top | 60-64 |
Loss | -107 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Rout is on Loyola-Chi at 8:00 ET.
Drake hired Darian DeVries, a longtime assistant at Creighton, as its new head coach a year ago. It was DeVries' first head coaching job and he led the Bulldogs to a 24-10 season. Drake returned four starters from that team but while the Bulldogs are 18-11 overall, they are just 8-8 in MVC play. Porter Moser's Loyola-Chicago Ramblers made that great run to the Final 4 in 2018, finishing with 32 wins. Last year's team won a more modest 20 games, after losing in the NIT. The Ramblers welcome the Bulldogs to Chicago at 19-10 overall, including 11-5 in MVC play (just ONE game back of conference-leader Northern Iowa, which is 12-4).
Drake is led by 7-0 sophomore Liam Robbins, who tops the team in scoring (14.0) and rebounding (6.7). The rest of the major contributors are all guards, with a bevy of six perimeter players chipping in between 6.0 and 11.7 PPG. That group is led by PG Penn, who averages 11.7-4.6-5.7. Three starters returned for Loyola this season and are contributing as expected. 6-9 center Krutwig leads in scoring (15.2), rebounding (8.1) and assists (4.3). FOUR guards play 20-plus minutes, chipping in between 8.9 and 13.2 PPG, led by Hall (13.2 & 4.0) and Clemons (10.0). The 6-7 Uguak (5.4 & 3.4) helps Krutwig up front.
Drake is an excellent home team (14-1) but is just 2-9 on the road, including 1-7 on the MVC road (note: lone win came at Evansville, which is 0-16 in conference play). Loyola is 13-2 at home, losing only to Coppin St back on Nov 12 as a three 'TD' favorite (?) and by three points to Davidson on Dec 22. Loyola has NOT lost at home since, winning EIGHT in a row while going 6-2 ATS. The Ramblers are an excellent defensive team (allow 62.3 PPG to rank 21st in the nation) and while they score a modest 68.8 PPG, the team shoots an impressive 50.1% from the floor (4th-best in the nation). Loyola lost at Drake just 65-62 back on Jam 7 and gets some revenge here with a convincing win that keeps them "right there" with Northern Iowa. Lay the points!
Good luck...Larry
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02-25-20 |
Rangers v. Islanders -137 | Top | 4-3 |
Loss | -137 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the NY Islanders at 7:05 ET.
The NY Rangers and NY Islanders developed an "instant rivalry" when the Islanders joined the NHL for the 1972-73 season. The Rangers are one of the NHL's "Original Six," beginning in the 1926-27 season but when the Islanders joined the NHL, the Rangers had won just two Stanley Cups, the most recent being in 1940. It wasn't long before the Islander rose to the top of the NHL with FOUR consecutive Cup titles from 1980-83. The Rangers finally earned the franchise's third-ever Cup in 1994 but neither franchise has added to their respective 'trophy cases.' The Islanders haven't won a Cup since that 1983 season, while the Rangers are 'cup-less' since 1994. However, games between the Rangers and Islanders at the Islanders' longtime on-and-off-again home, the Nassau Coliseum, are never ordinary affairs. That won't change tonight, when the Metropolitan Division rivals meet at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum. A significant trade, a pair of big-money contracts and a car accident highlighted the two teams' recent off-days, have added to some extra 'juice' to tonight's contest.
Artemi Panarin leads the Rangers in goals (31), assists (52) and points (83) but the big news was the Rangers agreeing to terms with Chris Kreider (24 goals / 45 points) on a seven-year contract to keep the former first-round forward with them for the foreseeable future. Team president John Davidson said of the contract for the 28-year-old Kreider, "Both sides worked hard on this. Both sides are very happy with the deal we've been able to put together." However, his Monday news conference took a different tone after he announced that rookie goaltender Igor Shesterkin and forward Pavel Buchnevich were involved in a car accident in Brooklyn on Sunday night. Shesterkin, who has posted a 9-1-0 record with a 2.23 GAA and .940 save percentage with the Rangers, sustained a rib fracture that is non-displaced and will be reassessed in a couple of weeks. The Rangers have won SEVEN of their last eight to claw their way back into the postseason discussion but with 70 points, remain SIX points out of the last wild card spot.
The Islanders and Blue Jackets hold down the two wild card spots with 76 points, although the Rangers have "three games "in hand" (note: both New York teams have played 61 games). The Islanders showed they are serious in their bid for the playoffs by acquiring Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Ottawa for three draft picks and he promptly signed a six-year contract with his new team. Pageau's 24 goals are two more than the Islanders' leading goal-scorer, Brock Nelson. Mat Barzal leads the Islanders in assists (34) and points (52), after setting up a pair of goals in Sunday's 4-1 victory over San Jose.
The Rangers come in a roll but the goaltender situation is now "in flux." Rookie sensation Shesterkin had become the Rangers' No. 1 goalie by winning NINE of his first 10 NHL starts and his emergence has relegated future Hall of Famer Henrik Lundqvist to third-stringer duties. Lundqvist (10-11-3, 3.12 GAA & .907 SP) will sit in favor of Alexandar Georgiev (14-12-1, 2.98 GAA & .912 SP) on Tuesday night. The Islanders have used both Greiss (16-18-2, 2.65 GAA & .916 SP) and Varlamov (19-12-4, 2.47 GAA & .920 SP) in goal, although Varlamov has started the last FIVE. He ended a three-game losing streak with back-to-back 4-1 wins, stopping 50 of 52 shots (.962). However, it should be noted that during his (the team's) three-game slide, he had stopped 98 of 104 (.942) shots on goal. The Islanders have split their home schedule between the Coliseum and Barclays Center in Brooklyn the last two seasons, while their new arena is built at Belmont Park along the Nassau/Queens border. That arena is expected to be concluded in time for the 2021-22 season, but no announcement has been made yet regarding where the Islanders will play next season. For tonight, I'll back the Islanders in the boisterous arena known as "The Barn!"
Good luck...Larry
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02-24-20 |
Magic v. Nets -3 | Top | 115-113 |
Loss | -104 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Brk Nets at 7:35 ET.
The 24-32 Orlando Magic own the 8th and final playoff seed in the East, 3 1/2 games clear of the Washington Wizards. The Magic travel to Brooklyn Monday night to take on the 26-29 Nets, who own the East's 7th-seed, 2 1/2 games ahead of Orlando. The Magic easily handled the Nets 101-89 back on Jan 6 in Orlando but this contest marks the first of THREE meetings down the stretch between these two teams (note: Nets trail the 6th-seeded Pacers by 6 1/2 games).
The Magic turned their season around last year by going 20-9 down the stretch to earn an Eastern Conference playoff spot for the first time in seven years. Do NOT expect a similar finish from the Magic this season but as just noted, the Magic are currently inside the playoff 'cut line' with 26 games remaining. However, Orlando is trending in the wrong direction. The Magic were 20-21 in mid-January but entered the break having lost 10 of 14 and in the team's lone game since returning from the break, lost 122-106 at home to Dallas. Center Nikola Vucevic leads the team in scoring (19.1) and rebounding (10.8). Along with forwards Gordon (14.1 & 7.4) and Isaac (12.0 & 6.9), the Magic featured a strong frontcourt. However, Isaac has been ruled out for the remainder of the season (has not played since Jan 1). Fournier (18.8) has been the leading scorer on the perimeter and SG Ross has added 13.5 PPG, despite not starting any of the 54 contests he has played. A pair of solid PGs are former overall No. 1 pick Fultz (11.9 & 5.0 APG) and Augustin (10.4 & 4.6).
While the Magic are struggling (4-11 their last 15), the Nets are playing well despite the fact that PG Kyrie Irving (27.4-5.2-6.4) has been ruled out for the remainder of the season to undergo shoulder surgery. Kyrie last played on Feb 1 but the Nets have gone 5-2, since. Dinwiddie (20.8-3.5-6.7), LeVert (15.6-3.7-3.6) and Temple (10.2) make up a strong backcourt trio, while SFs Harris (13.8 & 4.3) and Prince (12.4 & 6.21) are solid NBA players. Allen (10.9 & 9.6) and Jordan (8.3 & 9.9) form an underrated center combo, as both are nearly pulling down 10 RPG despite only playing around 26 minutes and 22 minutes, respectively. Then there is guard Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, who led EIGHT players in double figures with a season-high 21 points at Charlotte on Friday, as Brooklyn posted its third win of at least 22 points since Irving left the lineup for good earlier this month (Nets routed the Hornets, 115-86!).
The Magic are just 4-11 since getting within one game of .500 on Jan 15 and own one of the league's worst offenses (104.9 PPG ranks 29th on the season), while averaging 103.5 points in those last 15 games. This contest begins a stretch in which the Magic will play SEVEN of their next nine on the road (Orlando is just 9-18 SU on the road, so far), while the Nets have won EIGHT of 12 since losing five straight games from Jan 14-23 (note that five-game stretch came against elite teams like the Jazz, the 76ers twice, Bucks and Lakers!). Looking more closely at the team's recent 12-game stretch, we find that the Nets have six wins over sub-.500 teams in this span and SEVEN victories by double digits! Brooklyn wins this one "with room to spare!"
Good luck...Larry
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02-23-20 |
Pistons v. Blazers -4.5 | Top | 104-107 |
Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Por Blazers at 9:05 ET.
The Portland Trail Blazers advanced to the Western Conference Finals last season but the current season has, to say the least, NOT gone well. The Blazers came out of the All Star break 3 1/2 games back of the final playoff spot in the West and lost Friday night 128-115 at home to New Orleans. All-Star PG Damian Lillard (29.5-4.4-7.9) suffered a groin injury in a loss at Memphis in the final game before the All-Star break and expects to miss a few more after sitting out Friday night. Portland has dropped its last three games overall and remains 3 1/2 games behind eighth-place Memphis in the West, as the Blazers welcome the Pistons to Moda Center. Detroit is sliding toward the bottom of the standings in the East with losses in FIVE straight and 11 of its last 13 (19-39 Pistons are 19-39, just THREE game better than the East-worst Cavs) and begins a four-game West Coast trip with this visit to Portland.
Detroit is in the process of a full roster rebuild. Detroit traded away former franchise center Andre Drummond (17.8 & 15.8) prior to the All-Star break and reached a buyout agreements with veteran PG Reggie Jackson (14.9 & 5.1 APG) during the break plus reached a buyout agreement with SF Markieff Morris (11.0 & 3.9) on Friday. PG Griffin (15.5 & 4.&) is out for the season and SG Kennard (15.8 & 4.1 APG) hasn't played since before Christmas and remains "a ways away" from a return, although he has progressed to taking some contact in practice, according reports in The Detroit News. That leaves Derrick Rose, John Henson, Tony Snell and Langston Galloway as the only healthy veterans drawing regular minutes.
With Lillard sidelined on Friday, Portland got at least 13 points from all FIVE of its starters, led by CJ McCollum's 27 points and 10 assists. However, the Blazers allowed the Pelicans to shoot 53.6 percent from the floor. Gary Trent Jr. (7.0) started in place of Lillard and contributed 15 points The other starters are McCollum (21.4-3.9-3.9), Whiteside (15.8 & 14.0), Anthony (15.2 & 6.6) and Ariza. Portland traded for Ariza (Sacramento) and he's been a solid addition, averaging 10.3 & 4.8 in 12 games (he's also an excellent defender).
Portland's goal is to stay afloat while Lillard recovers from a groin injury and if the blazers can't handle the Piston's talent-challenged lineup at home, the team may as well just as well 'wave a white flag.' The "Price is Right" even without Lillard against this Detroit 'JV' team.
Good luck...Larry
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02-23-20 |
Butler v. Creighton -5.5 | Top | 59-81 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on Creighton at 4:00 ET.
Creighton jumped from No. 23 to No. 15 in Monday's AP poll and then won 73-65 at No. 19 Marquette on Tuesday. That comes after winning at then-No. 8 Villanova on Feb 1 and at then-No. 10 Seton Hall on Feb 12. The 15th-ranked Bluejays, who were picked to finish seventh in the 10-team Big East prior to the season, will attempt to earn four wins against ranked opponents in the same month for the first time in school history on Sunday, when they host No. 21 Butler. The Bulldogs made six NCAA trips from 1997-2007, before Brad Stevens took them to FIVE tourneys in six years, including back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2010 and 2011. Chris Holtmann led Butler to three straight NCAA appearances from 2015-17 and LaVell Jordan followed with an NCAA berth in 2018 but the Bulldogs finished just 16-17 last season. Butler opened the season 7-0 and on Dec 2 entered the AP poll at No. 24, ending a span of 43 consecutive polls on "the outside, looking in!' Butler sat at 15-1 through mid-January and rose as No. 5 in the AP poll (highest rating in school history) but will enter this contest 19-8 (7-7 Big East), having gone just 4-7 its last 11 (all conference games).
Butler's frustrating stretch continued Wednesday when Seton Hall's Sandro Mamukelashvili hit an off-balance shot in the lane as time expired to send Butler to a 74-72 defeat. All-American candidate Kamar Baldwin (16.3-4.5-3.3) led the Bulldogs in scoring for the 11th time in the last 14 games Wednesday with 20 points and ranks third in the conference with 18.4 points per game during league play. 6=6 senior Sean McDermott (11.9 & 6.0) is the only other player on the team averaging in double digits. Playing up front with him are Nze (9.3 & 6.5), Tucker (9.0 & 3.9) and Golden (8.5 & 3.7). PG Thompson (6.8 & 4.9 APG) returned from a one-game absence due to a concussion and contributed 12 points in the loss to Seton Hall.
Creighton opened the season starting a trio of guards in Ty-Shon Alexander, Marcus Zegarowski and Mitch Ballock (12.3 & 5.5). However, highly touted 6-5 guard Denzel Mahoney became eligible in mid-December and Creighton now goes with a four-guard lineup. Alexander (16.9 & 5.3) poured in 22 points Tuesday and is averaging 18.5 points while shooting 32-for-80 beyond the arc in his last 11 games (he also owns a 32:9 assist-to-turnover ratio and has accumulated 15 steals, over that same stretch). Zegarowski (15.8-3.7-5.1), Mahoney (12.4 & 3.5) and Ballock (12.1 & 5,4) join Alexander to give Creighton an awesome perimeter group. The 6-5 SF Jefferson (9.6 & 5.5) and the 6-7 Bishop (8.4 & 5.3) are the team's top frontcourt performers.
Greg McDermott is in his 10th season as head coach of Creighton. He arrived in 2010-11 and led the Bluejays to a runner-up finish in the CBI. Three straight NCAA teams followed, as Creighton won 29, 28 and 27 games. His lone losing season came in 2014-15 but Creighton's now won 20-plus games the last five years. Butler is one victory shy of reaching 20 wins for the 20th time in the last 24 seasons but win No. 20 WON'T come here. Creighton can tie a single-season program record with a FIFTH straight regular-season Big East victory with a win on Sunday and that "W" comes "with room to spare," avenging a 71-54 Jan 4 loss at Hinkle Fieldhouse. Lay the points!
Good luck...Larry
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02-23-20 |
Celtics v. Lakers -6 | Top | 112-114 |
Loss | -115 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 3:35 ET.
The NBA's two most decorated franchises renew their historic rivalry Sunday at Staples Center when the Los Angeles Lakers host the Boston Celtics. Boston and Los Angeles have 33 NBA championships between them and have met in the Finals a record 12 times. Both are once again title contenders, with the 39-16 Celtics sitting third in the Eastern Conference and the 42-12 Lakers leading the Western Conference. The Celtics hosted the Lakers back on Jan 20 (MLK Day) and broke out of slump that had seen them lose SIX of eight with a dominating 139-107 victory. The victory jump-started Boston's current 12-2 stretch, in which the Celtics have gone 10-4 ATS. Los Angeles has bounced back just fine from that loss and got back into action following the All-Star break with a 117-105 win over Memphis at home Friday night.
Boston's 127-117 win at Minnesota on Friday came without All-Star PG Kemba Walker (21.8-4.1-5.0), who recently received an injection in his ailing knee and had it drained (he will miss this one, as well). Gordon Hayward picked up plenty of the slack with 29 points while Daniel Theis broke out for career highs of 25 points and 16 rebounds. Tatum (22.5 & 7.0) and Brown (20.3 & 6.4) join Walker as 20-point scorers, while Hayward (17.6-6.7-4.1) is close to playing at "peak-level." Smart (12.5-3.6-4.8) has developed into a team leader, while Kanter (9.0 & 8.2) and Theis (8.7 & 6.4) have developed into a solid center duo.
Anthony Davis (26.7 & 9.3) has a calf issue but led LA with 28 points and seven blocks on Friday night. LBJ (25.1-7.7-10.7) ain't bad either (he had 32 vs the Grizzlies) but only Kuzma (12.5 & 4.4) joins that Dynamic Duo in double digits. That said, SIX Lakers are averaging between 7.0 and 9.6 PPG, including the solid center duo of Howard (7.7 & 7.8) and McGee (7.0 & 5.8) plus defensive specialist Bradley (8.7), who has reached double digits in FIVE consecutive games.
Four Celtics, Brown, Tatum, Hayward and Theis, each scored at least 25 points in Friday's 127-117 win at Minnesota, marking the first time since 1960 that four Boston players hit that mark in the same game. However, Minnesota is the NBA's worst ATS team 21-36-1 and has lost 16 of its last 17 SU. The Lakers are NOT the T-wolves and will surely want some "payback" from that 139-107 'spanking' back in Boston on Jan 20. Tatum, Walker and Jaylen Brown all scored 20-plus points in that one but as noted above, Walker will not play in this one. The Celtics held the Lakers to 43.8 percent shooting from the floor, 26.9 percent from three-point range, and forced 15 turnovers. LBJ was limited to 15 points (more than 10 below his season average) and A.D. had just NINE points, almost 18 fewer than his season average. Think those two are looking forward to this one? Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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02-23-20 |
Rutgers v. Wisconsin -4.5 | Top | 71-79 |
Win | 100 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Wisconsin at 1:00 ET.
Rutgers head coach Steve Pikiell is in his fourth season at the school, having gone 44-54 in his first three. Coming off a 14-17 season a year ago, Rutgers was picked 12th (of 14 schools) in the Big Ten preseason polls but the Scarlet Knights got off to their best start since the 1996-97 season and earned an AP ranking for the first time since the end of the 1978-79 season back on Jan 20. However, the Scarlet Knights are just 4-5 since losing at Iowa on Jan 23, including its first home loss of the season, 60-52 to Michigan on Wednesday. Wisconsin has been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and Sunday, the Badgers look to take another step towards securing an NCAA Tournament bid when they hosts Rutgers. Wisconsin (16-10 / 9-6 Big Ten) has won three consecutive games, including a 69-65 victory over Purdue on Tuesday, to move within a game of reaching double-digit wins in Big Ten play the 13th time in the last 14 seasons. Wisconsin lost 72-65 to the Scarlet Knights back on Dec 11 at "The RAC" (Rutgers Athletic Center).
Pikiel took his team to Spain in August and Rutgers went 4-0, while jelling as a unit. The "breakout star" of that trip was guard Ron Harper, who averaged 17.0 PPG on 53 percent shooting. He's currently Rutgers' leading scorer, averaging 11.9 PPG and adding 5.6 RPG. PG Baker (10.25& 3.5 APG) plus a trio of other of guards combine to add 22.4 PPG. Up front, the 6-6 Yeboah (10.1 & 4.8) and the 6-10 Johnson (8.0 & 7.9) are the biggest contributors. Baker scored a team-high 16 points against Michigan to finish in double figures for the 13th time this season. Harper scored 13 points and Yeboah added 10 points and five rebounds, but the Scarlet Knights were doomed by an 0-of-10 performance from three-point range in the final 20 minutes.
The Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ (17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team but the Badgers have a solid returning core. The 6-11 Reuvers (13.5 & 4.8) may not be Happ but he's a quality man. Wisconsin owns a 'DEEP' backcourt in King (10.0), Trice (9.7-4.2-4.0), Davison (9.4 & 4.7) and Pritzl (7.7 & 3.7). King left the team four games ago, but Wisconsin is 4-1 without him. The 6-10 Micah Potter, an Ohio St transfer who became eligible in December, has averaged 8.9 & 5.8 since joining the team and along with the 6-8 Ford (8.3 & 4.1), support Reuvers up front. In fact, Ford knocked down five 3-pointers en route to a career-high 19 points and pulled down seven rebounds as the Badgers hit EIGHT straight free throws down the stretch to stave off a late rally by Purdue. Pritzl scored eight of his 13 points from the FT line and grabbed six rebounds while Brad Davison also tallied 13 points as Wisconsin finished 19-of-20 from the foul line. Reuvers chipped in 12 points, six rebounds and a pair of blocked shots. Wisconsin is a VERY disciplined team, ranking fifth nationally in fewest turnovers per game (10.3).
Kudos to Rutgers for its excellent season but The Kohl Center has been a "House of Horrors" for visiting teams for two decades and the current season is NO different, with the Badgers going 12-1 (lone loss was 71-70 to Illinois). Wisconsin has beaten Maryland, Michigan St, Ohio St and Purdue (all four have been ranked at some time this season) at this venue already, so why won't the Badgers add a "revenge win" here vs Rutgers? After all, Rutgers is 1-6 SU away from "The RAC" in Big Ten play, winning only at Nebraska (7-19 / 2-13 Big Ten).
Good luck...Larry
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02-22-20 |
Fresno State v. Nevada -6.5 | Top | 76-78 |
Loss | -110 | 16 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* CBB Game of the Year is on Nevada at 10:00 ET. Justin Hutson spent two 'tours' as an assistant at SD St, sandwiched around a stint as an assistant at UNLV, before getting his first head coaching job at Fresno St for the 2018-19 season. He took over a program that had won 20-plus games the previous three seasons and continued that success by leading last year's Bulldogs to a 23-9 season, including a 3rd-place finish in the MWC (13-5). However, he lost THREE starters off that team, including his two highest scorers, guards Huggins (18.5 & 4.3) and Taylor (17.9-3.7-5.0). Fresno has struggled in Hutson's second season, entering this contest 10-17, including 6-10 in league play.
Eric Mussleman led Nevada to the CBI title in his first season (2015-16) and then to three straight NCAA appearances with win totals of 28, 29 and 29. However, Musselman left for Arkansas and was replaced by Steve Alford. The former Indiana star had coaching success at Missouri St and New Mexico but was generally viewed as a 'flop' at UCLA, where he was fired during last season. He took over a Nevada team that lost all FIVE starters but Alford's done a good job, as the Woolf Pack enter this game 17-10 overall, including 10-5 in the MWC (currently 3rd). ALL schools are "looking up" at SD St but 2nd-place and sixth-place in the MWC finds teams bunched with in 1 1/2 games of each other.
Fresno St beat Air Force 71-62 at home on Thursday, as guard senior Blackwell (9.7-3.1-3.1) matched a career high with 25 points and is joined in the backcourt by fellow senior Williams (11.9). 6-10 freshman Robinson (12.7 & 6.8) and 6-8 senior Grimes (11.6 & 10.0) are Fresno's top frontcourt players. Nevada is led by a deep backcourt. Jalen Harris, a La Tech transfer, leads the way averaging 21.8-6.5-4.0. He's joined by returning guards Johnson (16.2 & 3.4), Drew (11.1-6.7-4.3) and Zouzoua (9.6). No frontcourt player averages more than 20 minutes per game but a "group of four" combine to add 18.6 PPG and 16.5 RPG. Two 6-10 big men, freshman Meeks (6.9 & 4.0) and senior Reyes (4.7 & 4.4), are the best of the bunch.
Beating Air Force at home is no big deal (Falcons are 4-1 in MWC play) and I'll note that FSU entered that contest on a 2-6 ATS run. This marks Fresno’s final road game and it's being played at elevation like at Colorado St, where the Bulldogs lost by 18 points! Meanwhile, Nevada comes in on 4-0 SU & ATS run (not to mention the school's 8-1 ATS mark since mid-January). Nevada is in "prime" position to finish among the top-5 in the Mountain West, thereby earning a first-round bye (note: Wolf Pack are just a HALF-GAME behind second-place Utah St). Lay the points!
Good luck...Larry
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02-22-20 |
Alabama v. Ole Miss -2 | | 103-78 |
Loss | -109 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Ole Miss at 8:30 ET.
Alabama takes a 14-12 overall record (6-7 in the SEC) into a game Saturday night in Oxford against the 13-13 Ole Miss Rebels (4-9 SEC). The Crimson Tide have been competitive against the best in the SEC but come to Mississippi losers of FIVE of seven, after an 'ugly' 74-68 home loss to a 13-12 Texas A&M team. Any more losses like the one suffered Wednesday and Alabama can probably 'kiss an at-large NCAA berth goodbye!" Ole Miss won three straight from Feb 5-11 but enters this contest off back-to-back road losses, 67-62 at Kentucky and 71-68 at Missouri. Ole Miss is now 1-6 in games decided by fewer than six points, including 0-5 in the SEC.
Alabama owns a deep backcourt, with three in double digits. Lewis (17.5-5.1-5.0) leads the way, along with Petty (15.0 & 7.0) and Shackelford (14.7 & 4.3). The 6-9 Reese (9.4 & 4.6) and the 6-7 Jones (8.9 & 6.6) are the top frontcourt performers. Ole Miss counters with a deep backcourt, as well. Tyree (20.3) is outstanding and is joined by Shuler (11.2-4.7-3.5) and Hinson (10.3 & 5.0). The 6-67 Buffen (9.9 & 6.1) and the 6-10 Sy (9.4 & 5.5) give the Rebels a small edge up front.
Senior guard Breein Tyree has been on a tear, averaging 29.8 points in the last five contests, including games of 38 points and a career-high 40. The worst Ole Miss home-floor performance has been a four-point loss to then-No. 18 LSU and I'll take them here vs an Alabama team that opened 15-3 ATS but enters this contest just 3-5 ATS over its last eight.
Good luck...Larry
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02-22-20 |
Florida State -1 v. NC State | Top | 67-61 |
Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Florida St at 4:00 ET.
22-4 Florida St is 12-3 in the ACC (tied with Duke, right behind 13-3 Louisville) and the No. 8 Seminoles, who have been ranked in the top-10 for a school-record seven straight weeks, will visit the 17-9 North Carolina St Woflpack on Saturday. NC State came up huge its last time out, taking down No. 6 Duke 88-66 at home, handing the Blue Devils' their largest margin of defeat to an unranked opponent in 40 seasons under Mike Krzyzewski. The win gives NC State an 8-7 record in ACC play (5th) but the Wolfpack are just one game in front of FOUR 7-8 teams!
Leonard Hamilton-coached teams are always known for playing excellent defense but his teams have shown more offensive 'punch' the last few seasons. That's continued in the 2019-20 season, as the Seminoles are holding opponents to 65.6 PPG, but are also scoring 75.6 PPG,.The Seminoles wear down teams with their depth and balance on offense, as the top-four scorers produce between 9.2 and 13.0 PPG. Sophomore guard Devin Vassell leads the team at 13.0 PPG (also leads with 5.3 RPG), just ahead of senior guard Trent Forrest (11.6-4.4-4.3). Junior guard M.J. Walker (10.5) is the third double digit scorer, while fellow guard Polite (9.2) just misses. A trio of forwards combine for 21.2 PPG and 12.0 RPG plus 7-1 freshman center Kuprivica adds 5.1 & 2.7.
PG Markell Johnson (13.2-4.6-6.4) led NC State with 28 points against Duke and fellow guard Daniels (12.6 & 5.2) added 25 points (both were career highs!). C.J. Bryce, is the team's leading scorer (13.7) and rebounder (6.3) but had an off night with just seven points on 3-of-10 shooting. However, he led the team with 10 rebounds. The 6-10 Funderburk (12.6 & 6.0) and the 6-7 Hellems (9.5 & 3.6) are NC State's top frontcourt players.
FSU won 26 games in the 2016-17 season and 29 games last year but while the 2017-18 team won "only" 23 games, it reached the Elite 8. Some feel that this is arguably Hamilton's best team at Tallahassee (time will tell). As for NC State, the Wolfpack are in a classic "let down" situation, as the 22-point win over Duke was NC State's largest margin of victory over a top-10 foe since 1965. "Right TIME & PLACE" for FSU to be visiting Raleigh.
Good luck...Larry
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02-22-20 |
SMU v. Tulsa -1 | Top | 57-79 |
Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Tulsa at 3:00 ET.
It's 18-7 SMU at 17-9 Tulsa on Saturday in AAC play. Both schools come off losses on Wednesday, as SMU fell 80-72 at Tulane (now 8-5 in league play), while Tulsa lost 76-43 at No. 22 Houston (now 9-4 in league play). Losing at ranked at Houston (Cougars sit atop the AAC at 11-3) is understandable but losing at Tulane (Green Wave entered on a NINE-game losing streak and is just 3-11 in AAC), is another thing altogether.
Tim Jankovich won 20-plus games in four of his five seasons at Illinois St, making four NIT appearances. He was announced as SMU's Associate Head Coach and coach-in-waiting in April of 2016 and then as head coach on July 8, 2016.. He's had to bear the full force of NCAA sanctions due to Larry Brown's tenure but things are looking up this season. SMU breezed through a not-so-difficult non-conference schedule and few are complaining in Dallas with the Mustangs' 18-7 record. Jankovich has two guards and two forwards making most of the contributions for his SMU team this season. PG Kendric Davis (a TCU transfer) owns a line of 15.3-4.5-7.0 and is joined in the backcourt by JC transfer Tyson Jolly (14.7 & 6.2). Then there are two 6-8 forwards, Isiaha Mike (14.2 & 6.4) and Feron Hunt (12.0 & 6.8). The 6-9 Chargois, who averaged 12.4 & 6.2 last season, continues to under-performed (6.8 & 3.8
Tulsa head coach Frank Haith has had stops at Miami-Fl and Missouri before coming to Tulsa, where he led the Golden Hurricane to back-to-back 20-win seasons in his first two seasons at the school. However, Tulsa entered this season on a three-year postseason drought, so the team's 17-9 record so far, is "big news" in Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane are led by the trio of guard Rachal (19.9 & 6.1) plus forwards Igbanu (12.9 & 4.8) and Hunt (11.1 & 5.1). Four more guards all play 20-plus minutes, combining for 26.3 PPG.
SMU has been sensational at Moody Coliseum (14-1) but have managed just a ONE victory in SIX opportunities on the road during league play (an upset of Memphis on Jan 25). Tulsa 'fell apart' Wednesday at Houston (got outscored 50-23 after the break) but has been tough here at home, going 12-3. The team's 'resume' includes home wins over now-No. 22 Houston (63-61), then-No. 20 Memphis (80-40!) and then-No. 23 Wichita St (54-51). Not sure why a team 1-6 in league play is 'priced' this way on Tulsa's homecourt? I guess we'll find out who is right. I've got the home team.
Good luck...Larry
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02-22-20 |
Virginia v. Pittsburgh OVER 108 | Top | 59-56 |
Win | 100 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Eye-Opener is on UVA/Pitt Over at 12 noon ET.
Virginia lost FOUR of five games from Jan 7 thru Jan 20 and that slide began talk that the reigning national champions might not even make the NCAA Tournament, as the Cavs were just 126, including 4-4 in ACC play. However, Virginia appears to finally have found some answers to its season-long search for offensive weapons, as the Cavs cored a season-high 78 points in a 13-point win over Boston College on Wednesday in reaching 10 ACC wins for a school-record eighth straight season (18-7 overall / 10-5 in ACC). UVA looks for its SEVENTH win in its last eight games at Pittsburgh on Saturday, in the only game between the teams this season. Jeff Capel's team lost its SIXTH game in its last eight in Tuesday's 82-67 home loss to No. 8 Florida State, but the head coach Jeff Capel was quick to point out that the team has already surpassed last season's win total and has more ACC wins then the last two years combined.
UVA's "Core 4" this season has been its unique guard duo of 5-9 PG Clark (10.6-4.2-6.6) and the 6-8 Key (10.0 & 7.2), teamed with the 6-9 Diatke (13.5 & 6.6) and 7-1 Huff (8.2 & 6.2). However, after a poor start to the season, Tomas Woldentensae (a 6-5 junior guard from Italy) has emerged as the offensive wild card the Cavaliers have been seeking. In THREE of his previous six games, he'd made six or more three-pointers, and in Wednesday win made four of eight on his way to 14 points. He's now 28 for 60 (46.7%) over his last seven games, averaging 13.7 PPG. Pittsburgh has FIVE guards all playing 28-plus minutes per game, chipping in between 8.9 and 12.4 PPG. Freshman Champagnie leads in scoring (12.4) and rebounding (7.2), while sophomores McGowens (12.1-3.5-3.6) and Johnson (11.8-3.8-5.1) join him in double digits.
Virginia has won four straight in the series and 11 of 12.The Cavs come in off their beat offensive game of the season and the Panthers have struggled on defense, ranking last in ACC games in effective field-goal percentage (51.9) and defensive rebound percentage (66.3). On the season, Pitt scores 65.9 PPG and allows 64.6. Looking at Pitt's entire schedule, this is the lowest over/under number posted on a Pittsburgh game (opened 109). One has to go back to neutral-site games vs Kansas St on Nov 25 (total closed 117.5) and Northwestern on Nov 27 (120) to see anything close to this low. FYI...Both of those games went over, as will this one!
Good luck...Larry
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02-21-20 |
Spurs v. Jazz -7 | Top | 113-104 |
Loss | -105 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ut Jazz at 9:05 ET.
The San Antonio Spurs' 23-31 record is their worst at the All-Star break since the 1996-97 season, which just happens to be the last time they failed to make the playoffs. Pop's Spurs have made 22 consecutive postseason appearances (it's the longest active streak in any major North American pro sports league), winning FIVE titles but this year's team is clearly NOT "your father's Spurs!" San Antonio resides in 10th place in the Western Conference, 4 1/2 games behind the eighth-place Memphis Grizzlies, with the 9th-place Blazers one game up on the Spurs. San Antonio visits Salt Lake City Friday night to take on the 36-18 Utah Jazz. The Jazz are currently the West's No. 4 seed but sit just 1 1/2 games back of Denver, the West's No. 2 seed. The Jazz won 19 of 21 games (16-4-1 ATS) from Dec 11 through Jan 25 but then lost FIVE in a row. However, they rebounded right before the break with FOUR straight wins.
San Antonio has been led all season by guard DeMar DeRozan (23.0-5.7-5.2) and PF LaMarcus Aldridge (19.1 & 7.6). The Spurs don't feature the great depth of past San Antonio teams but guards Mills (11.7), Forbes (11.1), Murray (10.4-5.8-4.0) and White (10.2) plus SF Gay (9.5 & 5.3) are all solid NBA players. DeRozan missed the final two games before the All-Star break due to back spasms but practiced on Wednesday and indicated he was fine afterward. DeRozan has scored 20 or more in 22 of his last 25 games. PG Murray is averaging 18.7 points, eight rebounds and seven assists over his last three games.
While the Spurs didn't feature an All Star in Sunday's game, Utah SG Donovan Mitchell (24.3-4.3-4.3) and center Rudy Gobert (15.6 & 14.6) were both worthy participants. Bogdanovic (21.0 & 4.1) is having an excellent season, while role players Ingles (10.0-4.0-5.2) and O'Neale (5.9 & 5.2) are undervalued league-wide but NOT by the Jazz. Free agent PG Conley (13.5 & 4.2 APG) has been a disappointment but when Conley went down with an injury, Utah traded for Jordan Clarkson. He's been a HUGE addition, averaging 16.2 PPG in 24 games (think he misses Cleveland?).
Both teams have been San Antonio off since Feb 11 but while the Jazz resume play at home, the Spurs continue their annual "Rodeo Road Trip" in Salt Lake city, before completing the stretch of EIGHT straight road games in Oklahoma City on Sunday. The Jazz had won SIX of their past eight matchups but the host Spurs prevailed 127-120 on Jan 29, when Utah was in that five-game slide. The Jazz have been OUTSTANDING on the offensive end of the court, scoring 119.3 points per 100 possessions and face a San Antonio team that Popovich has described as being "defensively challenged." Spurs are allowing 114.5 PPG (2nd), reminding all again, this is NOT "your father's Spurs." Lay the points.
Good luck...Larry
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02-21-20 |
Pacers v. Knicks OVER 211.5 | Top | 106-98 |
Loss | -109 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Ind/NYK Over at 7:35 ET.
The Indiana Pacers knew Oladipo was not going to get back on the court until right before the All Star break. Oladipo finally returned on Jan 29 and the Pacers beat the Bulls 115-106 in OT, giving them a 31-17 record. However, the Pacers then lost their 1st SIX games in Feb, before ending that skid with an 118-11 win over Milwaukee on Feb 12 (note: Giannis didn’t play!). Indian comes out of the break at 32-23, 15 games back of the NBA-best Bucks. The No. 6-seeded Pacers are hoping to carry the momentum of beating Milwaukee into their final 27 games of the regular season but realistically, Indiana's best hope is to inch past No. 5 seed Philly (35-21) and No. 4 seed Miami (35-20) to earn a first-round bye. The Pacers visit MSG on Friday to face the NY Knicks, a team which has LONG ago shelved any postseason aspirations. It's true that the 17-38 Knicks have gone 13-20 SU since Mike Miller took over on an interim basis for David Fizdale in December (Knicks were 4-18 under Fizdale), but the rest of the season is more about player development and finding out if R.J. Barrett is the piece the team wants to build around for the future.
Here's the latest update on the Indiana star. Oladipo will be playing in his eighth game since missing a little more than a year with a ruptured quadriceps injury. In his first seven games, he averaged 25 minutes and did not play more than 29 minutes in any game (11.1 PPG on just 32.9% shooting). However, head coach Nate McMillan recently told reporters that doctors cleared Oladipo to start playing 32 to 34 minutes, which is on par with his career average of 33.1 minutes per game. Oladipo averaged 31.9 minutes and 18.8 points before getting hurt last season and two years ago, in his first season with the Pacers, averaged 23.1 points while playing 34 minutes. Also arriving with Oladipo from OKC in the trade for Paul George was PF Sabonis, who has developed into an All Star (18.3-12.5-4.8). The Pacers have OUTSTANDING depth with SF Warren (18.5) and PG Brogdon (16.6-4.7-7.3) playing a high levels. Then there are SG Lamb (12.9 & 4.4), center Turner (119. & 6.1) and SF McDermott (10.40 also averaging in double digits.
The Knicks traded away one of their top-two performers this season in SF Morris (19.6 & 5.4) at the deadline, leaving PF Randle (19.3 & 9.60 as the team's lone marquee plyers (and that's a stretch). As noted above, Barrett was the third overall pick of the 2019 draft and management will be;\looking closely at his performance the rest of the way (he starts the second-half averaging 13.6 & 5.1. Reggie Bullock signed with the Knicks in July of 2019 and underwent successful surgery on the next day for a cervical disc herniation. He debuted with the Knicks on January 1, 2020 and is averaging 9.8 PPG. PG Payton (9.7-4.7-6.9) has been decent plus PF Portis (9.4 & 5.3) and center Robinson (9.2 & ) have had their moments.
Indiana's six-game slide began back on Feb 1 with an 'ugly' 92-85 home loss to the Knicks, who were 11-point 'dogs. That defeat snapped a SEVEN-game Indiana winning streak in the series. The Pacers will play SEVEN of their next nine on the road and the team can't afford NOT to win road games against highly beatable teams like the Knicks. I like Indiana in the game but 'LOVE' the total to go over. The Pacers have gone over in EIGHT of their last 10 contests, averaging 115.6 PPG in NINE of the 10. The exception was that 85-point effort on Feb 1 vs the sad-sack Knicks. What's more, the Pacers have allowed 116.7 PPG in NINE of the last 10 games, with the anomaly again being the 92 points allowed against the Knicks on Feb 1. This one is Goin' Over!
Good luck...Larry
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02-20-20 |
UCLA v. Utah -3 | Top | 69-58 |
Loss | -109 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Utah at 10:30 ET.
Mick Cronin started his career by leading Murray St to two NCAA tourneys in his three seasons at the school and then took over at Cincinnati for Bob Huggins. He didn't get the Bearcats to the "Big Dance" until his FIFTH season (2010-11) but that began a run of NINE consecutive NCAA appearances. He took the UCLA job before the start of the current season but the 15-11 Bruins got off to a slow Pac-12 start, winning only one of their first four contests. However, UCLA has gone 7-2 since, and will bring a three-game win streak into Salt Lake City to take on the Utah Utes. Utah head coach Larry Krystkowiak is in his ninth season at Utah but after back-to-back NCAA teams in 2014-15 (26 wins) and 2015-16 (27 wins), the Utes began this season off three straight non-NCAA seasons. The Utes were 9-3 in non-conference action but are just 5-8 in Pac 12 play. Utah has dropped four of six entering this contest, falling into a three-way tie for eighth place in the conference at 5-8.
6-9 swingman Chris Smith is the only UCLA player averaging double figures with 13.3 PPG (also 5.5 RPG) and he’s stepped things up of late, averaging 19.3 points, seven rebounds and three assists during UCLA's three-game winning streak. SEVEN more UCLA players are averaging 15 minutes or more and chip in between 4.3 PPG. The 6-10 Jalen Hill tops that group at 9.5 PPG plus also owns a team-best 7.0 RPG. Freshman PG Campbell leads the way with 4.4 assists for the Bruins, while adding 7.8 PPG.
6-6 forward Timmy Allen (17.6 & 7.2) and guards Rylan Jones (10.5 points) and Both Gach (10.1) are the team's double digit scorers but Allen needs to bounce back from a poor two-game trip to Oregon where he totaled just 16 points on 5-of-16 shooting while making nine turnovers. Joining Allen up front are the 6-9 Battin (9.2 & 5.2) and the 6-8 Jantunen (6.9 & 4.4) and the 7-0 Carlson (6.9 & 4.0).
The Bruins won Feb 2 in LA by the score of 73-57 but the Utes are 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS here at home. At this price, the Utes are the play.
Good luck...Larry
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02-20-20 |
Stanford v. Washington -2 | | 72-64 |
Loss | -112 | 15 h 51 m | Show |
My 8* play is on Washington at 10:00 ET.
Stanford was coming off a 15-16 season but opened the 2019-20 season 11-2 in non-conference play and then went 4-0 to begin Pac 12 play. However, Stanford is clearly trending in the wrong direction with SEVEN losses in its last eight games. The Cardinal are 16-9 (5-7 in the Pac 12) as they visit Seattle to take on the Washington Huskies. Washington knows "all about" trending in the wrong direction, as they were 10-2 and ranked 21st in the AP poll when they coughed up a lead and lost 75-71 to Houston in the title game of the Diamond Head Classic on Christmas Day. Not much of anything has gone right, since. Washington welcomes Stanford to Hec Edmundson Pavilion on a NINE-game losing streak. The Huskies are now 12-14 overall, including a Pac 12 -worst 2-11.
Some think that Stanford has a chance to make some 'noise' in the Pac 12 tourney and that's because of the potent duo of 6-9 forward Oscar da Silva (15.9 & 6.3) and freshman PG Tyrell Terry (15.2-4.7-3.1). Five other chip in between 4.9 and 9.1 PPG, led by 6-7 freshman Jones (9.1 & 3.6) and guards Davis (8.2 & 3.1) and Wills (7.2 & 4.3). Washington won 27 games and earned an NCAA bid last season but FOUR starters from that team are gone, including three NBA draft picks. That's never good but head coach Mike Hopkins (a long-time Boeheim assistant) recruited a pair of McDonald's All-Americans plus added a third with the transfer guard Quade Green from Kentucky. 6-9 freshmen Isaiah Stewart (17.1 & 8.8) and Jaden McDaniels (12.8 & 6.0) have played well but when Green (11.6 points and 5.3 assists per game) was ruled academically ineligible, the team has fallen apart (1-10 without him). Hopkins needs more production from guard Nahziah Carter (12.3 & 5.0) and 6-9 forward Hameir Wright (5.4 & 4.5) but the duo combined on 7-of-27 shooting in back-to-back losses to the Los Angeles schools last weekend.
Yes, Washington is in a 'free-fall' but Stanford can be had on the road and isn't NINE straight losses, enough?
Good luck...Larry
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02-20-20 |
Oregon v. Arizona State +2 | Top | 72-77 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Arizona St 9:00 ET.
No. 14 Oregon is 20-6 and 9-4 in the Pac 12, tied with Colorado for first-place . However, 17-8 Arizona State has positioned itself firmly in the Pac-12 title race discussion thanks to a league-best FIVE-game winning streak that included a road sweep of the Bay Area schools last weekend. The Sun Devils, tied with in-state rival Arizona (both 8-4) for third place just a half-game out of first, as they return home to host conference co-leader Oregon on Thursday.
Dana Altman has led Kansas St, Creighton and Oregon to multiple NCAA tourneys and 2019-20 Ducks opened this season No. 15 in the AP's preseason poll. Oregon wrapped up non-conference play at 11-2 and as 2020 dawned, was ranked No. 4, the first time the Ducks had been in the AP top-5 since the 2016-17 team made the Final 4. A four-game win. It hasn't been 'smooth sailing' in Pac 12 play, though. Bobby Hurley won two national titles as Duke's PG (1991 and 1992) but was always destined to get into the 'family business,' as his father is Bob Hurley, Sr, the legendary high school coach of St Anthony's (NJ). Hurley's first job was at Buffalo and in his second season, led the Bulls to an NCAA berth. He used that as springboard to take the Arizona St job in 2015-16. However, he opened with back-to-back losing seasons (15 wins each year). Hurley's 2017-18 squad snuck into the "Big Dance" as a First Four team and the Sun Devils were back 'dancing' again last season, losing in the Round of 64 to finish 23-11. As noted above, this year's team is making a strong surge.
Senior PG Payton Pritchard (lone holdover from Oregon's Final 4 team) earned national player of the week honors for the third time this season on Monday when the Naismith Trophy recognized his efforts in the wins over the Buffaloes (15 points, career-high 11 rebounds) and the Utes (25 points, 5-of-9 three -pointers). He's averaging 19.5-4.3-5.8 on the season and is joined by Duarte (13.4 & 5.5), Richardson (10.7) and Mathis (7.9) in the backcourt. The Ducks’ frontcourt has been minus 6-11 center N’Faly Dante (6.2 & 2.7) due to a knee injury and 6-9 forward Francis Okoro (3.5 & 4.5) went back to Nigeria for the funeral service for his father (he's played the last two games but has scored only six points). However, freshmen like the 6-8 C.J. Walker (4.7 & 2.6) and the 6-8 Chandler Lawson (4.7 & 4.0) have seen more playing time, joining 6-7 UNLV transfer Juiston (7.7 & 6.5).
While Pritchard was claiming national player of the week honors, Sun Devil junior PG Remy Martin picked up Pac-12 player of the week honors for the second time this season after averaging 23 points on 67 percent shooting (16-of-24), including 5-of-6 three-pointers, and 3.5 assists in ASU's weekend sweep in the Bay Area. Martin leads the Pac-12 in scoring (19.6) and also tops the team in assists (4.0) and steals (1.6) while guard Alonzo Verge Jr. (14.0), 6-8 forward Romello White (10.5 & 9.3) and guard Rob Edwards (10.4) are also averaging double digits.
Oregon has been no better than mediocre on the Pac 12 road, while Arizona St is 10-2 SU at home on the season, losing to only Creighton (now-No. 15) and Colorado (now-No. 18). Is Oregon comparable to those schools? Yes, but ASU is hitting on all cylinders now, having won SEVEN of eight and has averaged 78.2 PPG during its current five-game winning streak. Home team earns the win.
Good luck...Larry
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02-20-20 |
Connecticut v. Temple | | 89-93 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Temple at 7:00 ET.
Connecticut is playing its final season in the American Athletic Conference and all indications are that the Huskies "can't wait" to return to the Big East. UConn is 14-11 overall, including 5-7 in AAC play as it travels to Philadelphia on Thursday for a matchup with the Temple Owls, who are 13-12 (5-7 in the AAC). The teams look to break a tie for seventh in the league.
Danny Hurley is in his second season at Storrs and his first (16-17) didn't go any better than UConn's two previous seasons (16 and 14 wins). The Huskies have been through an up-and-down campaign thus far. UConn had lost four in a row and six of seven entering its first matchup with Temple (Jan 29), which the Huskies won 78-63 behind six double-digit scorers. The Huskies have won FOUR of six since. Senior guard Christian Vital (14.5 & 6.4) has reached double figures in each of the last 11 contests plus leads the AAC in steals per game (2.4) and free-throw percentage (90.7). Freshman guard James Bouknight (12.5) has come into his own lately, averaging 18.3 points over the last seven games. Fellow guards Gilbert (9.0 & 4.1 APG) and Adams (7.2) give the backcourt excellent depth. However, UConn lost the 6-9 Polley (9.5 & 3.2) to a torn ACL back in mid-January (out for the season) and Sunday, 6-9 freshman Akok (5.8 & 5.5) tore his Achilles' tendon and will miss the rest of the season. That leaves UConn with only the 6-11 Carlton (8.2 & 6.6) up front.
Temple has a first-year head coach in Aaron McKie, but he's hardly "new." McKie played three years at Temple (he was the 1993 Atlantic 10 Conference Player of the Year as a junior) and then after a 15-year NBA career, returned to Temple as Dunphy's assistant from 2014-19. Temple was picked to finish seventh in the American Athletic Conference preseason poll and that's where the Owls currently reside. Senior guard Quinton Rose (16.4-4.9-3.6) and junior guard Nate Pierre-Louis (11.4-8.2-3.0) lead the way. Fellow guards Moore (8.5) and Scott (6.1) in a four-guard rotation, joined by the 6-8 Forrester (8.4 & 4.1). The 6-7 Perry (6.1) and ty=the 6-7 Moorman (5.8 & 5.2) bot get significant minutes, up front.
UConn is off THREE highly-competitive games, winning 72-71 in OT vs Cincy, losing by four at SMU and then edging Memphis by three at home. Games like that wear on a team. I DON'T like the Huskies' chances here at Temple, as UConn is just 1-6 SU in true road games this year and needs to win to cover this contest. The home team IS the play!
Good luck...Larry
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02-20-20 |
Ohio State v. Iowa -2.5 | Top | 76-85 |
Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Iowa at 7:00 ET.
17-8 Ohio State (7-7 in the Big Ten) and 18-8 Iowa (9-6) square off for the only time this season Thursday night in a Big Ten matchup of top-25 teams in Iowa City. Ohio State had climbed to No. 2 in the polls (at 9-0) before suffering its first loss Dec 15 at Minnesota. Ohio St sat 11-1 after beating then-No. 6 Kentucky on Dec 21 but then lost SIX of seven. Ironically, Ohio State has won FIVE of its last six games since freshman guard D.J. Carton (10.4) announced in late January that he was taking time away to deal with mental health issues. The Buckeyes re-entered the ranking Monday at No. 25. Iowa enters the game ranked 20th in the latest AP poll and return home after a two-game road trip ended with a come-from-behind 58-55 win at Minnesota on Sunday. Tonight's matchup is the only regular-season meeting between the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes and it could be an especially important one for conference tournament seeding. The top-four teams in next month's Big Ten tournament receive an automatic bye to the quarterfinals, avoiding the extra game that comes with finishing fifth through 10th , or two extra games, finishing No. 11 or worse.
The 6-9 Kaleb Wesson (14.1 & 9.4) is the centerpiece of Ohio St's team this season (was a preseason All-Big Ten pick) but Chris Holtmann's team has great depth, as SIX more players (not counting Carton) chip in between 5.9 and 10.6 PPG. Guard Duane Washington (10.6) joins Wesson in double digits but Wesson's 6-6 brother Andre adds 9.0 & 4.1. Underappreciated floor general C.J. Walker (Florida State transfer) is chipping in 7.6 PPG and 3.2 APG plus 6-8 junior Kyle Young (7.7 & 5.8) gave the Buckeyes a significant boost in their 68-52 victory over Purdue on Saturday, scoring a career-high 16 points while adding seven rebounds. When Young is effective, he provides a second inside presence to supplement Kaleb Wesson.
The 6-11 Luka Garza scored 24 points in Iowa's Sunday win at Minnesota. He's a national player of the year contender, averaging 23.7 PPG (4th-most in the nation) and 9.7 RPG He can score both inside, shooting 59.8 percent from inside the three-point arc, and from long range with 38.8 percent accuracy (33 of 85) behind the arc. Sophomore guard Joe Wieskamp (14.9 & 6.2) is an excellent "second option" on offense for Iowa but freshman guard CJ Fredrick (10.7) is the only other double-digit scorer. Guards Toussaint (6.4) and Connor McCaffrey (6.0-4.3-3.8) help give Iowa a strong perimeter group, while the 6-10 Ryan Kriener (7.7 & 4.1) helps Garza up front. The bad news is, Fredrick has a bum ankle is NOT expected to play in this one. Then again, McCaffrey (the coach's son), leads the country in assist-to-turnover ratio at 4.26 with 96 assists and 23 turnovers in 26 games.
As noted, this is the ONLY meeting this regular-season between the two schools and it holds SIGNIFICANT importance (review above). The Buckeyes are just 3-5 in true road games and Carver-Hawkeye Arena is known for its hostile crowds and is ONE a tough venue. Iowa has won 11 consecutive home games since a loss to DePaul back on Nov 11, taking a 12-1 home record this season into this game, as well as a 30-5 SU the last two seasons at home. Lay the small points!
Good luck...Larry
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02-19-20 |
California v. Washington State -5.5 | Top | 66-57 |
Loss | -105 | 11 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Washington St at 10:00 ET.
Mark Fox had a terrific run at Nevada, winning 20-plus games in each of his five seasons at Reno, making three NCAA tourneys. He used that as a 'springboard' to coach in the SEC at Georgia but his nine-year stay in Athens was a huge disappointment, with just four, 20-win seasons and only TWO appearances in the "Big Dance." This is his first season at Berkeley and Cal enters this contest 10-15, including 4-8 in Pac 12 play. However, Cal has already reached double-digits in wins, after recording EIGHT victories in each of the last two seasons. Kyle Smith began his coaching career at Columbia, then moved to San Francisco, where he won 20-plus games in three straight season (Dons finished second in the CBI in 2018). This is his first season at Pullman and Washington State is 14-12, although just 5-8 in Pac-12 play. However, considering the Cougars have averaged 11.6 wins per season the previous five years, NO ONE is complaining in Pullman.
Cal's offense revolves around sophomore guard Matt Bradley, who averages 17.8 PPG (also adds 5.1 RPG). Two senior guards join him on the perimeter in South (9.1) and Austin (8.3). Bradley scored 22 points before fouling out against the Sun Devils in Sunday's 80-75 home loss, while senior PG Paris Austin contributed 17 points, five assists and five rebounds. The Bears were hoping to jump-start their offense by starting freshman guard Joel Brown in place of Kareem South, but the two combined for just eight points on 3-of-9 shooting. A pair of 6-8 forwards, Anticevich (8.4 & 5.6) and Kelly (7.4 & 5.2), are the team's top frontcourt performers. Anticevich had 18 points and eight rebounds against Arizona State, while Kelly is averaging 8.7 rebounds over his last three games.
6-6 sophomore forward CJ Elleby leads Washington St the team in scoring (18.7) and rebounding (7.5). Guard Isaac Bonton, a Montana St transfer, adds 14.8 PPG and a team-high 4.0 APG. However, a hip injury caused him to miss Saturday’s 70-51 loss at USC. Elleby continued to impress with 22 points and 13 rebounds against the Trojans .but Bonton’s injury forced Smith to rely heavily on freshmen Noah Williams and Ryan Rapp, who combined for 14 points on just 6-of-19 shooting. Williams (6.0 & 3.5) and senior guard Robinson (4.8 & 2.8) will need to play better in this one. The 6-9 Pollard (9.1 & 4.3) just misses averaging in double digits, while 6-8 senior Kunc averages 5.3 & 3.5.
Here's the bottom line. Washington St will miss Bonton but Cal is winless in 10 games away from Haas Pavilion this season. The Bears are 0-5 on the Pac-12 road, averaging a pathetic 51.6 PPG in those contests, losing by an average margin of 15.8 points! The Cougars have recorded noteworthy wins over UCLA, Arizona State, Washington and both Oregon schools this season, so why won't they avenge a 73-66 loss at Cal back on Jan 9 against a team that has yet to win a SINGLE game away from home, while losing all five Pac-12 road games by about 16 PPG? Cougars win "with room to spare."
Good luck...Larry
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02-19-20 |
Boston College v. Virginia OVER 114 | Top | 65-78 |
Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on BC/UVA Over at 8:00 ET. Virginia won its first-ever NCAA basketball championship last season but the Cavs opened at just No. 11 in the preseason AP poll. Gone from last year's champs are the team's top-three scorers, guards Guy (15.4 & 4.5), Hunter (15.2 & 5.1) and Jerome (13.6 & 4.2). However, the Cavs opened 7-0 and were ranked 5th when they lost 69-40 at Purdue on Dec 4. UVA was 11-2 (3-0 ACC) and ranked 18th when it visited Chestnut Hill on Jan 7 to take on Boston College. The Eagles upset UVA 60-53 in that contest and that loss began a midseason slump for the Cavs, as UVA lost three straight and FOUR of five. However, the defending champs have managed to rebound of late with a series of close wins, going 5-1 since that 1-4 stretch.
BC head coach Jim Christian has had success in the MAC with Kent St and Ohio but he's struggled at TCU (56-73) and now at BC (entered this season with a 62-100 record). BC knew it would really miss Jerome Robinson (20.7) but the Eagles got off to a 4-1 start. However, the team has been exchanging wins and losses for about a month and enters this contest 13-13, including 7-8 in ACC play. Case in point being, losing 85-58 at Miami (Fla) last Wednesday, only to knock off North Carolina State 71-68 on Sunday at home. FYI...BC's seven ACC wins matches its best ACC win total under Christian.
Senior guard Derryck Thornton, USC grad transfer, has been a big addition. He scored 22 points in BC's win over NC St and averages a team-high 13.1 PPG. Freshman guard Jay Heath contributed 16 points in Sunday's win and is second on the team in averaging 12.6 PPG. The 6-11 Popovic (10.5 & 5.2) is the team's third double digit scorer plus the Hamilton brothers, 6-8 sophomore Jairus (9.7 & 4.4) and senior guard Jared (8.1), are quality players. The 6-8 Mitchell (7.2 & 8.4) is the team's leading rebounder plus 6-7 freshman Felder (5.8 & 4.0) has had a nice season.
The Cavaliers' recent surge gives them a 17-7 record (9-5 in the ACC) and has greatly improved their NCAA Tournament resume. This season's UVA team has been led for most of the season by its unique guard duo of 5-9 PG Clark (10.3-4.3-6.1) and the 6-8 Key (9.7 & 7.2). Up front, it's the 6-9 Diakite (13.7 & 6.5) and the 7-1 Huff (8.0 & 6.2). Those players have been UVA's "Core 4" but recently, junior guard Tomas Woldetensae (6.9) has been the team's breakout star. He scored 27 points in an 80-73 loss at Louisville on (73 points scored are a season-high for UVA this season) and then his three-pointer with 0.8 second remaining was the difference in UVA's 64-62 win Saturday at North Carolina. Also, freshman guard Casey Morsell (4.3 PPG) scored 10 points - more than twice his season average - and collected a career-high three steals at North Carolina.
Revenge should work well for UVA here but note that all FIVE of the team's wins over this current six-game stretch have come by single digits, including two in overtime plus that last-second 64-62 triumph at North Carolina. However, I'm expecting Braxton Key to break out of a three-game slump in which he has produced a total of 12 points on 5-of-19. BC's leading scorer, Thornton, missed the first matchup while Heath led the Eagles to a 60-53 win with 17 points on 6-of-8 shooting. Virginia has won five straight meetings at home vs BC and makes it SIX straight but Goin' Over this VERY low total is "the play!"
Good luck...Larry
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02-19-20 |
Michigan v. Rutgers -1 | Top | 60-52 |
Loss | -115 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Conference Crusher (Big Ten) is on Rutgers at 7:00 ET.
John Beilein left Michigan to take the head coaching job with the Cleveland Cavaliers (that went well, didn't it?), after leading the Wolverines to NINE NCAA tourneys in his 12 years (twice lost in the national championship game). Taking over was former Fab Fiver Juwan Howard, who had to replace forward Ignas Brazdeikis (14.8 & 5.4) plus guards Jordan Poole (12.8) and Charles Matthews (12.2 & 5.0). Michigan opened the season unranked but began 7-0, after winning the Battle 4 Atlantis (Thanksgiving week). The Wolverines shocked then-No. 6 North Carolina (73-64) and now-No. 2 Gonzaga in the championship game. When "the dust had settled," Michigan wound up No. 4 in the AP poll on Dec 4. However, the Wolverines then went 4-9 over their next 13 games to fall to 11-8, including 2-6 in the Big Ten. Michigan has rebounded though, to win FIVE of six, including THREE straight by an average margin of 19 points.
Rutgers head coach Steve Pikiell is in his fourth season at the school, having gone 44-54 in his first three. Coming off a 14-17 season a year ago, Rutgers was picked 12th (of 14 schools) in the Big Ten preseason polls but the Scarlet Knights got off to their best start since the 1996-97 season and earned an AP ranking for the first time since the end of the 1978-79 season back on Jan 20. However, Rutgers fell out of the top-25 by losing THREE of four, before besting then-No. 22 Illinois 72-57 last Saturday. The Scarlet Knights welcome the Wolverines to The RAC (Rutgers Athletic Center) on Tuesday, having lost all 11 games it has played against Michigan in program history. However, Rutgers is a PERFECT 17-0 at home this season. Something has to give!
Michigan's woes coincided with an injury to the 6-7 Livers in mid-December. Livers scored 43 points and grabbed 14 rebounds the last two games (leads all Michigan players by averaging 13.0 PPG) rolled his ankle in the second half of Sunday's 89-65 rout of Indiana and will be a game-time decision on Wednesday. PG Zavier Simpson (12.5-4.3-8.2) registered 12 points and 11 assists to become the winningest player in program history (105 career victories), along with 7-1 center Jon Teske (12.3 & 7.6), who had six points, seven rebounds and four blocks against Indiana. Guards Brooks (11.4 & 3.8) and Wagner (10.3 & 5.4) have also contributed regularly for Michigan this season.
Pikiel took his team to Spain in August and Rutgers went 4-0, while jelling as a unit. The "breakout star" of that trip was guard Ron Harper, who averaged 17.0 PPG on 53 percent shooting. He's currently Rutgers' leading scorer, averaging 11.8 PPG and adding 5.7 RPG. PG Baker (10.2 & 3.6 APG) plus a quartet of other of guards combine to add right around 23 PPG and 10.5 RPG. Up front, the 6-6 Yeboah (10.1 & 4.8) and the 6-10 Johnson (8.3 & 8.0) are the biggest contributors.
The Wolverines played the Scarlet Knights as part of the Big Ten’s Super Saturday series at Madison Square Garden on Feb 1 and won, 69-63. However, this rematch will be played at The RAC, where Rutgers is 17-0. Livers could miss (he didn't play in the Feb 1 game, either) but more notably, the Scarlets Knights lost by just FOUR points at MSG, despite their top-two players (Harper & Baker) combining to shoot 2 of 19 from the floor. That's NOT happening at this venue!
Good luck...Larry
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02-18-20 |
Creighton v. Marquette -2.5 | Top | 73-65 |
Loss | -112 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Marquette at 8:30 ET.
Creighton jumped from No. 23 to No. 15 in Monday's AP poll and the 20-6 Bluejays have won SEVEN of eight (now 9-4 in the Big East, ) as they visit 17-7 Marquette tonight, which saw a four-game winning streak end with a 72-71 loss at Villanova on Saturday. The Bluejays' 9-4 record leaves them just ONE game back of 10-3 Seton Hall in the Big East, the Golden Eagles are only 7-5, 2 1.2 games back of the Pirates.
Greg McDermott is in his 10th season as head coach of Creighton. He arrived in 2010-11 and led the Bluejays to a runner-up finish in the CBI. Three straight NCAA teams followed, as Creighton won 29, 28 and 27 games. His lone losing season came in 2014-15 but Creighton's now won 20-plus games the last five years. Creighton opened the season starting a trio of guards in Ty-Shon Alexander (16.7 & 5.3), Marcus Zegarowski (15.8 & 5.2 APG) and Mitch Ballock (12.3 & 5.5). Highly touted 6-5 guard Denzel Mahoney became eligible in mid-December and is averaging 12.6 & 3.4 PPG. The 6-5 SF Jefferson (9.5 & 5.4) and the 6-7 Bishop (8.5 & 5.4) are the team's top frontcourt performers.
Marquette went 24-10 last season but lost in the NCAA's first round. In the off-season, head coach Steve Wojciechowski got great news as Markus Howard, the Big East player-of-the-year, would return for his senior year. However, three days later, the Hauser brothers, Sam (14.9 & 7.2( and Joey (9.7 & 5.3), announced that they were transferring. That said, the Golden Eagles are headed for another 20-win season and a likely NCAA at-large bid. Howard leads the team and the nation in scoring (27.3) and is joined in the backcourt by fellow senior guard Sacar Anim (13.1 & 4.0) and junior guard Koby McEwen (10.7-5.4-3.3 & 5.2). The 6-8 Bailey (7.8 & 5.5) is Marquette's top frontcourt producer but three others (forwards John and Cain plus the 7-0 Johnson) combine for 17. PPG and 15.0 RPG.
Marquette flopped in a 92-75 loss at Creighton back on Jan 1 but the team has won SIX of eight since Jan 15, going 7-1 ATS in that stretch (team's lone loses were in OT at Butler and by ONE point at 'Nova). No doubt Creighton is playing well and talented but note that the Bluejays closed 2 1/2-point road underdogs at Providence (4-12), at DePaul (13-12 / 1-11 in Big East play) and at Georgetown (15-10 / 5-7 in Big East). Here, the number is "about the same" against a 17-7 team that is 12-1 SU at home and owns the nation's leading scorer.
Good luck...Larry
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02-18-20 |
Kings v. Jets -155 | Top | 3-6 |
Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Win Jets at 8:08 ET.
The 21-33-5 Los Angeles Kings have just 47 points, leaving them 8th in the Pacific Division and 'light years away' (21 points to be exact) from the final wild card berth in the West. The Kings have won just FOUR times in 17 games since Jan 1 and visit the 30-25-5 Winnipeg Jets on Tuesday. The Jets have 65 points (4th in the Central Division), which has them within striking s]distance (three points) of the final wild card berth in the West.
It's been a L-O-N-G season for the Kings but Los Angeles beat Colorado 3-1 at the Air Force Academy, giving the last-place team in the Western Conference its second consecutive victory after a five-game losing streak. Tyler Toffoli recorded the first hat trick in an outdoor game in NHL history, scoring twice in the final minute. Toffoli (team leader with 18 goals) was named the NHL's third star of the week on Monday, after scoring four goals in two games last week. He is two shy of reaching 20 for the fourth time in his career but the Kings struggle offensively, as Anze Kopitar leads the team in assists (34) and with a modest 51 points. That total is 16 more than Iafallo's 35 points. Goaltender Jonathan Quick made 15 saves in the first period Saturday and turned away 32-of-33 shots overall to snap an eight-game winless streak and earn his first win since Dec 31. However, Quick is FAR from the goalie he was in leading the Kings to Stanley Cup win sin 2012 and 2014, as he's 12-22-3 with a 2.99 GAA and .897 SP on the season.
The Jets are 5-2-1 over their last eight games, after Sunday’s 3-2 home victory over Chicago. While the Kings have just ONE player with more than 50 points (see above), the Jets have FOUR. Connor leads with 29 goals and 60 points, while Scheifele has a team-high 36 assists and 59 points. Laine (54) and Wheelers (51) are the team's other 50-point players. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck had surrendered seven goals in losing his previous two outings but made 31 saves in Sunday's win. He's 25-18-5 with a 2.70 GAA and .919 SP on the season.
The Kings play 14 of their next 16 games at home but first travel to Winnipeg to face a Jets. The Jets are 9-21-4 on the road, one of just FOUR teams with less than 10 road wins. The Jets are "right in" the hunt for a wild card berth and after losing BOTH previous games to the Kings this season (3-2 and 2-1), should have NO trouble winning here. That's the bet!
Good luck...Larry
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02-18-20 |
Purdue v. Wisconsin -4 | Top | 65-69 |
Push | 0 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Wisconsin at 7:00 ET.
Purdue is coming off a 26-win season, after reaching the Elite 8 last year (lost in OT to eventual champ UVA), but Purdue lost outstanding guard Edwards (24.3) from that team, as well as the team's second-leading scorer Cline (12.0). The Boilermakers opened the season ranked 23rd in the AP preseason poll but Purdue takes the court tonight 14-12 overall, including just 7-8 in the Big Ten. Wisconsin has been to the "Big Dance" in 20 of the last 21 seasons and while the Badgers lost the 6-10 Happ (17.3 & 10.1) and a solid guard in Iverson (6.9 & 4.5) from last season's 23-win NCAA team, the Badgers had a solid returning core. However, Wisconsin enters tonight's game 15-10, including 8-6 in the Big Ten. Purdue enters off back-to-back losses, while Wisconsin is looking for a THIRD straight win.
Purdue has nice balance, as FIVE players average between 8.8 and 11.0 PPG. The 6-9 Williams leads in scoring (11.0) and rebounding (7.4) and is joined up front by the 7-3 Haarms (9.3 & 4.7). A trio of guards follow, including Hunter (10.4), Proctor (9.8) and Stefanovic (8.8) and Filling out the roster are guards Thompson (5.5) and Eastern (4.9 & 4.1), while the 6-8 Boudreaux (5.2 & 3.5) and the 6-9 Wheeler (3.8 & 4.5) help out Williams and Haarms up front.
Wisconsin's 6-11 Reuvers (14.0 & 5.4) may not be Happ but he's a quality man. Wisconsin owns a 'DEEP' backcourt in King (10.0), Trice (9.8-4.3-3.9), Davison (9.3 & 4.7) and Pritzl (7.5 & 3.6). King left the team four games ago, but Wisconsin is 3-1 without him. The 6-10 Micah Potter, an Ohio St transfer who became eligible in December, has averaged 9.5 & 6.1 since joining the team and along with the 6-8 Ford (7.9 & 4.), support Reuvers up front.
Purdue is an excellent home team but the Boilermakers have dropped SEVEN of their 10 road games this season, going, 0-6 as a road dog (100% "go-against"). The Kohl Center has been a "House of Horrors" for visiting teams for two decades and the current season is NO different, with the Badgers going 11-1 (lone loss was 71-70 to Illinois). Wisconsin has beaten Maryland, Michigan St and Ohio St at this venue already, so why not the poor-traveling Boilermakers?
Good luck...Larry
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02-16-20 |
Arizona State v. California +5 | Top | 80-75 |
Push | 0 | 9 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Cal at 6:00 ET.
Bobby Hurley won two national titles as Duke's PG (1991 and 1992) but was always destined to get into the 'family business,' as his father is Bob Hurley, Sr, the legendary high school coach of St Anthony's (NJ). Hurley's first job was at Buffalo and in his second season, led the Bulls to an NCAA berth. He used that as springboard to take the Arizona St job in 2015-16. However, he opened with back-to-back losing seasons (15 wins each year). Hurley's 2017-18 squad snuck into the "Big Dance" as a First Four team and the Sun Devils were back 'dancing' again last season, losing in the Round of 64 to finish 23-11. The Sun Devils, who have won SIX of their last seven games to reach 16-8, including 7-4 in Pac 12 play. That leaves them ONE game back of 1st-place Colorado (9-4) and a half-game back of Arizona and Oregon (both 8-4).
Mark Fox had a terrific run at Nevada, winning 20-plus games in each of his five seasons at Reno, making three NCAA tourneys. He used that as a 'springboard' to coach in the SEC at Georgia but his nine-year stay in Athens was a huge disappointment, with just four, 20-win seasons and only TWO appearances in the "Big Dance." This is his first season at Berkeley and Cal enters this contest 10-14, including 4-7 in Pac 12 play.
ASU has four, double digit scorers but no other player chips in as much as 5.0 PPG. PG Remy Martin (19.5-3.4-3.9) leads the way, while fellow guards Verge (13.6 & 3.5) & and Edwards (10.5 & 3.4) make for a strong perimeter trio. The 6-8 White (10.5) is the fourth double-digit scorer and the team's top rebounder (9.2). Verge has emerged as a difference-maker over the last five games, averaging 17.2 points while shooting 55.4 percent from the floor, including 53.8 percent from three-point range.
Sophomore guard Matt Bradley scored 19 points in Thursday’s 68-52 loss to Arizona and is the team's LONE double-digit scorer at 17.7 PPG (adds 5.2 RPG). Senior guards South (9.2) and Austin (7.9) are solid contributors, while a pair of 6-8 players, Anticevich (8.0 & 5.5) and Kelly (7.3 & 5.1) while sophomore forward Andre Kelly added eight points and nine rebounds. Bradley is the only player scoring in double figures for the Bears (17.7 per game), and work up front. Cal was picked to finish last in the Pac-12 preseason poll and while Cal's 4-7 league mark leaves them ahead of only 2-11 Washington, a win here would vault them into a tie for sixth in the conference.
ASU is on a roll but be careful. The team has won four straight Pac 12 games for the first time since the 2009-10 season. Cal has shown improvement under first-year coach Mark Fox and checks in 10-4 SU at home, going 5-1 ATS in Pac 12 home games. What's more, the home team is 9-2 ATS (82%) in Cal's 11 conference games this season. The home team is my bet, here. Take the points.
Good luck...Larry
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02-16-20 |
San Diego State v. Boise State +6 | Top | 72-55 |
Loss | -115 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
My 9* Underdog Shocker is on Boise st at 4:00 ET.
No. 4 San Diego State (25-0 / 14-0 in the MWC) has already clinched its seventh regular-season title. "The hardest thing in basketball, obviously other than winning the Final Four, is winning a regular-season conference title because you have to do it over the whole season," Aztecs head coach Brian Dutcher said in his postgame press conference after Tuesday’s 82-59 victory at New Mexico. The Aztecs look to maintain their perfect record on Sunday against Boise State at ExtraMile Arena, where the Broncos are 12-1 this season, after Tuesday’s 74-57 victory over Air Force. Leon Rice is in his 10th season as Boise's head coach and while his teams have won 20-plus games in SEVEN of his first nine, the Broncos are coming off a 13-20 season in 2018-19. Boise's head for another 20-win season this year at 17-9 and at 9-5 in MWC play, are just a half-game back of second-place Utah St in league play.
The Aztecs are led by likely Mountain West player of the year Malachi Flynn (16.4-4.1-5.1), who is averaging 17.6 points, five rebounds and five assists over his past 10 games. The Aztecs rely on basically five players, as guards Schakel (10.0 & 3.4) and Feagin (8.7-3.1-3.2) join Flynn on the perimeter, while the 6-6 Mitchell (12.5 & 4.8) and the 6-10 players Wetzell (12.0 & 6.5) start up front. Dutcher was on Fisher's staff in Michigan and SDSU, and like his mentor, 'preaches' defense. The Aztecs are allowing just 58.4 PPG (4th) on 37.6% shooting (6th).
Boise St features the "big" backcourt duo of the 6-9 Alston (18.4 & 5.2) and the 6-7 Jessup (15.7 & 4.3). Senior Hobbs (8.6) is a more traditional guard plus the 6-6 Kigab (12.4 & 4)3.6and the 6-7 Williams (11.5 & 8.2) have proven to be solid frontcourt players. Kigab was an Oregon transfer who became eligible in December and he's really helped this team in 14 games (team is 10-4). Jessup scored 18 points and Williams posted his eighth double-double of the season with 16 points and 12 rebounds in Tuesday’s 74-57 victory over Air Force. Boise St also received a welcome boost from forward Abu Kigab, who returned after missing two games with a hip pointer and had six points, two rebounds, an assist and a blocked shot in 15 minutes off the bench.
The Aztecs raced to a 23-point lead at the half and cruised to an 83-65 victory at Viejas Arena over Boise back on Jan 11 but as noted, the Broncos are 12-1 SU at home this season (lone loss way back on Nov 15 vs UC-Irvine). San Diego State has lost its last three games against the Broncos at ExtraMile Arena (lost by 22 points last season) and Boise owns a 122-29 record at home in ExtraMile Arena under Rice. Take the points but I'm calling for the OUTRIGHT win.
Good luck...Larry
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02-16-20 |
Memphis v. Connecticut -3.5 | Top | 61-64 |
Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on UConn at 3:00 ET.
Penny Hardaway's first season as head coach of his alma mater (Memphis) resulted in a 22-win season. The Tigers lost all FIVE starters from that team but they were replaced by what most considered the best recruiting class of the 2019-20 season. However, the 'jewel' of that class, the 7-1 James Wiseman, was the center of an NCAA investigation and after just three games (19.7 & 10.7), Wiseman was 'done.' He decided to NOT fight anymore and is currently preparing for the next NBA Draft. Memphis went 11-1 in non-conference play Memphis was ranked and looked like a surefire NCAA Tournament team but now appears to be "sitting on the outside looking in," after two straight losses, The Tigers are 17-7 overall but just 6-5 in AAC play.
Danny Hurley is in his second season at Storrs and his first (16-17) didn't go any better than UConn's two previous seasons (16 and 14 wins). The Huskies have been through an up-and-down campaign thus far, going 13-11 (4-7 in the AAC) and the conventional wisdom is, the Huskies can't wait to return to their former home, the Big East (that happens next season). However, UConn does own home wins over then-No. 15 Florida and Cincinnati (last Sunday) plus has lost in OT at home to two of the AAC's best teams, Wichita St and Tulsa.
Since James Wiseman left the program after playing three games, the 6-9 Precious Achiuwa has established himself as the best freshman in the AAC, averaging 15.0 PPG and 10.1 RPG. Fellow freshmen, the 6-7 Jeffries checks in at 10.8 & 4.3, while guard Lester Quinones adds 11.1 PPG and 3.6 APG. Four more guards check in averaging between 4.5 and 8.5 PPG. Jerffries is out with a knee injury (hasn't played in Feb) but while Achiuwa was injured late in the South Florida contest, he managed to play against Cincinnati, scoring 22 points to go with a career-high 17 rebounds, his 13th double-double of the season. Freshman guard Lester Quinones has stepped up since D.J. Jeffries went down, reaching double figures in all four contests and shooting nearly 53 percent from the floor in that span.
Senior guard Christian Vital is averaging team highs of 14. p2oints and 6.3 rebounds. The only other player in double digits is freshman guard James Bouknight (12.0 & 3.3), who has elevated his level of play in two victories last week, by scoring 45 points to earn conference player of the week honors. Fellow guards Gilbert (9.3 & 4.2 APG) and Adams (7.1) typically come off the bench, The loss of the 6-9 Polley (9.5 & 3.2) to a torn ACL (out for the season) has hurt, leaving UConn with only the 6-11 Carlton (8.3 & 6.3) and 6-9 freshman Akok (6.0 & 5.9), up front.
The Tigers want to stay on the safe side of the Big Dance cut line but a loss here in Storrs would hardly help that effort. UCon comes in 7-2 ATS (or 6-2-1) over its last nine games and recent home wins over Temple and Cincy suggest UConn is more than capable of winning here. The Huskies lost 70-63 at Memphis back on Feb 1 but that game was tied inside of three minutes to play. James Bouknight has emerged as the best player on the Huskies, averaging 18.5 points over the last six games, eclipsing the 20-point mark in his last three. Fellow freshman and backcourt mate Jalen Gaffney (just 3.4 PPG on the season) experienced growing pains after entering the starting lineup, but scored a career-high 13 points on 62.5 percent shooting against SMU this past Wednesday. Leading scorer Christian Vital has reached double figures in each of the last 10 contests plus leads the AAC in steals per game (2.5) and free-throw percentage (89.8). Memphis is VERY beatable and UConn 'gets the job done!"
Good luck...Larry
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02-16-20 |
Iowa v. Minnesota -4.5 | Top | 58-55 |
Loss | -109 | 6 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Minnesota at 1:00 ET.
No. 17 Iowa (17-7) was hoping to stay in the hunt for its first Big Ten regular-season championship since 1979 when it visited Indiana on Thursday. The Hawkeyes had won SEVEN of their last nine contests but Iowa delivered another lackluster defensive performance away from home in an 89-77 loss. The defeat drops Iowa to 17-8, including just 8-6 in the Big Ten (Maryland's win at Mich St on Saturday gives the Terps an 11-3 Big Ten mark). The Golden Gophers haven't played since a week ago Saturday, when trailed by as many as 19 points with just under 14 minutes remaining, before closing the gap in an 83-77 loss at now-No. 13 Penn State. Minnesota is just 12-11 on the season, including 6-7 in the Big Ten.
Iowa lost at Indiana, despite a 38-point performance from 6-11 senior Luka Garza. The Big Ten has yet to find a way to contain Luka Garza, who is averaging 23.7 PPG and 9.8 RPG. Garza is one of only two players nationally to average at least 23.5 points and nine rebounds, and he owns the two highest single-game point totals in the Big Ten this season (38 points against Indiana and 44 vs Michigan on Dec 6). Sophomore guard Joe Wieskamp (15.4 & 6.1) is an excellent "second option" on offense for Iowa but freshman guard CJ Fredrick (10.7) is the only other double-digit scorer. Guards Toussaint (6.6) and Connor McCaffrey (6.0-4.3-3.6) help give Iowa a strong perimeter group., while the 6-10 Ryan Kriener (7.2 & 4.0) helps Garza up front. Note that McCaffrey is the only player in Division I with at least 90 assists and fewer than 25 turnovers, allowing him to lead the country in assist-to-turnover ratio (3.96)
Richard Pitino has had a roller-coaster run at Minnesota, capturing the NIT (25 wins) in his first season but then falling to 18 wins and just EIGHT wins the next two seasons. The last three seasons have seen 24 and 22-win NCAA teams sandwiched around a 15-win season. Pitino opened the current season without guards Coffey (16.6) and McBrayer (8.9) plus big man Murphy (14.4 & 11.0), who gave the Minnesota program a combined 11 seasons. 6-10 sophomore center Daniel Oturu hasn't quite been able to match Garza's gaudy offensive production but he is coming off a 32-point, 16-rebound effort Feb 8 in an 83-77 defeat at Penn State. He is averaging 20.1 points and 11.5 rebounds per game to go along with 2.7 blocked shots. Fellow sophomore, PG Marcus Carr, is averaging 15.7-5.8-6.7.(15.7 points, 5.8 boards, 6.7 assists). Gabe Kalscheur (11.7) has knocked down a conference-high 56 three-pointers, while guard Willis (9.2 & 3.5) and the 6-9 Demir (7.4 & 4.7) round out Minnesota's starting-five (Gophers don't have much depth).
Iowa's loss at Indiana on Thursday marked its third straight double-digit loss on the road, with the team surrendering an average of 91.7 points during its road skid to a trio of teams (Maryland, Purdue and Indiana) that rank no higher than 129th in the country in scoring offense. Garza is terrific but Oturu is hardly 'chopped liver,' so I expect Iowa's road woes to continue. Iowa's D just doesn’t travel well, allowing 80 PPG away from home, compared to a 66 at home. Its NOT good news for Iowa that CJ Fredrick exited Thursday's contest late in the first half with a sprained right ankle, and coach Fran McCaffery didn't sound overly optimistic about his status for Sunday when asked about his freshman guard following the game. Minnesota's 72-52 setback at Iowa on Dec 9 was its most lopsided loss of the season (Carr was 1 of 10 from the floor in that one), so expect "payback" to be in play in this one and note that Pitino's Gophers are 8-2 as a hone favorite this season. Minnesota wins "with room to spare.
Good luck...Larry
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02-15-20 |
Virginia v. North Carolina OVER 118 | Top | 64-62 |
Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Virginia/North Carolina Over at 8:00 ET.
North Carolina is already aware it will need to win the ACC Tournament if it wants to make the NCAA Tournament (fat chance!) but defending champion Virginia still has hope that a strong finish will help it avoid a similar fate. The Cavaliers held on for a 50-49 overtime home victory Tuesday over Notre Dame, prevailing despite making only one FG over the final 6 1/2 minutes of regulation and settling for just THREE free throws in the extra period. As for the Tar Heels, they hit a new low on Tuesday, falling into last place in the ACC following a 74-57 loss at Wake Forest three days after nearly upsetting No. 7 Duke. North Carolina is in the midst of its third losing streak of at least four games in 2019-20, something that had never happened in program history prior to this season.
I'm just "cutting to the chase" for this one. Virginia's 'ugly' performance against Notre Dame (just 50 points in a 45-minute OT win), followed UVA's best offensive effort of the season in the Cavs' previous game. UVA lost 80-73 at Louisville (a good defensive team!), shooting 53.1% overall, including 11 of 22 on threes (went just 5 of 20 on threes vs ND!). As for the Tar Heels, they shot 33.3% for the game, including an abysmal 1 of 16 on threes against Wake (a notably poor defensive team), coming off a 98-96 OT loss vs Duke. Against Coach K's team, North Carolina shot 52.2% for the game and had 84 points in regulation.
As Vince Lombardi one famously cried out, "What the hell is going on out there!" When these two schools met at Charlottesville back on Dec 8, they combined to shoot 22.6% on threes in a 56-47 UVA win. With both coming off horrendous shooting efforts on Tuesday, my bet is we'll see some 'real' basketball played. Go OVER!
Good luck...Larry
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02-15-20 |
UNLV v. New Mexico -2.5 | Top | 78-73 |
Loss | -116 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on New Mexico at 6:00 ET.
The UNLV Rebels (12-14) and the New Mexico Lobos (17-9) meet in Mountain West Conference college action from the Dreamstyle Arena in Las Cruses on Saturday. The Rebels are sub-.500 overall but are 7-6 in MWC play, a game better than the Lobos, who despite that 17-9 overall mark, have gone just 6-7 in league play. That said, NEITHER team has nor will make any 'waves' in a conference dominated by No. 4 SD State (25-0, including 14-0 in league play). The Rebels had little patience with Marvin Menzies, who was fired after just three seasons. Taking over has been TJ Otzelberger, who in three seasons at South Dakota St, went 70-33 with two NCAA teams. However, as UNLV's record indicates, it's been a tough first season for Otzelberger. New Mexico's Paul Weir is in his third season at Las Cruses and after 19-and 14-win seasons, he's headed for his "best year" at New Mexico.
Now that Mitrou-Long is back healthy, the Rebels have a trio of guard scoring in double digits. Hamilton (15.2 & 5.2) leads the way, followed by Hardy (14.1) and Mitrou-Long (10.9-3.2-3.5). Up front, it's the 6-7 Tillman (10.1 & 4.7) and the 6-11 Diong (7.9 & 8.3).The suspension of the 6-10 Bragg (12.6 & 10.3 after playing 15 games) was NOT good news for the Lobos but they've survived. FOUR players still average in double digits. PG Lyle (16.1-4.2-4.7) leads the way, followed by the 6-9 Manigault (12.7 & 5.0), plus guards Martin (11.2) and Hendrix (10.1 & 4.0). Just under 10 PPG are Jackson (9.6 & 4.7) and Maluach (9.,3 & 4.1).
UNLV is just 2-7 SU in true road games third season and is not getting NEARLY enough points to draw ANY interest here against a Lobo team 14-1 SU at home in "The Pit," with its lone loss coming against unbeaten SD State! Here's "payback" for that 99-78 loss in Las Vegas!
Good luck...Larry
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02-15-20 |
Tennessee v. South Carolina -3.5 | | 61-63 |
Loss | -104 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
My 8* play is on South Carolina at 6:00 ET. No analysis available. |