Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-27-21 | White Sox -143 v. Royals | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
The 3rd pick of my STP is a 7* on the Chi White Sox at 8:10 ET. The White Sox come in highly motivated here. They did break their three-game slide with a 3-1 win at Milwaukee, but they then returned to the losers circle after a 4-3 defeat here in yesterday's series opener. Enough is eough for the White Sox, who have now dropped four of their last five. The Royals are playing their best baseball of the season, but I expect this to be the spot where the "letdown" happens. Chicago hands the ball to Dylan Cease (7-6, 4.21 ERA) who gave up three runs and struck out five over five innings in a loss to the Twins on Wednesday. Cease has been better at home than on the road, but I still say he's the correct call in this bounce-back revenge spot for the White Sox. Brad Keller (7-9, 5.84) is coming off awin over the Brewers last week for the Royals, allowing three runs over six innings, but outings like that have been few and far between for the Royals' Opening Day starter. KC is still just 17-36 in its last 53 vs. right-handed starters, while Chicago is 51-19 in its last 70 vs. teams with losing records (and 6-2 in its last eight on the road.) I like Cease to go deep and for the White Sox to get back into the winners circle. Lay the price, the play is Chicago. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-27-21 | Marlins -118 v. Orioles | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Game of the Week is on the Mia Marlins at 7:05 ET. This is the opener of a brief two-game interleague series. The Marlins are off back-to-back wins at home over the Padres and I expect them to keep the momentum rolling here. Both teams are out of the playoff picture, but each is competing. Baltimore has been playing well of late also, but after a series sweep at home over the Nationals this weekend, I believe a letdown is in order here for the Orioles. The visitors hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara (5-9, 3.23 ERA), who hasn't pitched since July 16th, as he's been on the bereavement list. That's significant to note, because in 12 appearances that Alcantara has pitched with at least six days of rest between starts, he owns a sharp 2.60 ERA. Spenser Watkins (2-0, 1.65) has looked great in his limited time for the Orioles. He's conceded one run or fewer in his first three major league starts. Watkins looks primed for regression at some point though, and in my estimation, that time is now. Yes, the Fish are a poor 19-34 on the road, but the Orioles are a terrible 16-30 at home. Miami is 9-3 though in its last 12 interleague road games. I say Watkins takes a step back and the well rested Alcantara steps up and takes advantage. Lay the reasonable price, the play is Miami. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-27-21 | Brewers -132 v. Pirates | 9-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show | |
The 1st pick of my STP is on the Mil Brewers at 7:05 ET. The Brewers have had a night off after falling 3-1 at home to the White Sox in the finale of a three-game series. Milwaukee won the series 2-1. I believe the Brew Crew bounces back here though in this favorable position. Milwaukee turns to Brett Anderson (2-5, 4.26 ERA), who is coming off a strong outing against the Royals on Tuesday, allowing two runs and striking out three over five innings. Anderson has to be feeling confident here, as his team has won seven of ten in this season series so far. Slugger Lorenzo Cain is also expected back in the line-up tonight for Milwaukee. Tyler Anderson is just 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA in four career starts against the Brewers. Brett Anderson is 4-1 with a 2.82 ERA in seven career outings against Pittsburgh. I think the Brewers are well worth the price of admission in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-26-21 | Reds +118 v. Cubs | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Cin Reds at 8:05 ET. This is the opener of an important four-game series for each club. As of Monday morning, the majority of the public money is on Chicago in this one, and that's likely going to get even more lop-sided as the first-pitch approaches. But I say this one sets up well for Cincinnati. The visitors took two of three from the Cardinals at home over the weekend, but they're out to bounce-back after yesterday's 10-6 defeat. The Cubs took two of three from the Diamondbacks here over the weekend, including yesterday's 5-1 victory. The Reds roll with Wade Miley (8-4, 2.72 ERA) to open things up, and he most recently allowed one run while striking out eight over seven innings in a win over the Mets. It was the 11th time this season that he's gone into the sixth inning or beyond (and note, Miley's been at his best on the road, going 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA at home, and 3-2 with a 2.52 ERA away from friendly confines.) The home side counters with Kyle Hendicks (12-4, 3.61), who gave up two runs over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against the Cardinals. Hendricks has been a bright spot for the Cubs this year. Interestingly, his home ERA (3.92), is slightly higher than his road (3.34). Miley is 2-1 with a 4.88 ERA on four career starts at Wrigley, and 7-4 with a 4.29 ERA in 13 career matchups vs. the Cubs. Hendricks is 6-5 with a 4.24 ERA in 20 career outings against Cincinnati. The starters are a "wash." The trade deadline is quickly approaching and the Cubs are sellers. The Reds though are still pushing for a spot. Chicago is out of contention and after yesterday's victory, I say a letdown here is imminent. I like Miley to match Hendricks inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the under valued underdog. The play is the Reds. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-25-21 | White Sox +126 v. Brewers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 126 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* MLB Sunday Night "GAME OF THE Month" play is on the Chi White Sox at 7:08 ET. The White Sox have lost six of their last ten, including three in a row. With their ace on the mound, I think they finally get off the schneid. Lance Lynn (9-3, 1.94 ERA), is coming off a no-decision to the Twins on Monday, unforutnate because he conceded just a single run and struck out four over seven innings. He's 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA on the road. Brandon Woodruff (7-4, 2.04) gets the nod for the Brewers. He gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to Cincinnati on Saturday. It's hard to say anything negative about Woodruff, as like his counterpart, he's enjoying a resurgent season. I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. With a night off before a three-game series at lowly Pittsburgh, I think the home side gets caught looking ahead. The White Sox can't afford to look past anyone right now. Look for Lynn to "right the ship" in the finale of this interleague series. The play is the White Sox. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-25-21 | A's -122 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
The 3rd pick of my STP is on the Oak A's at 4:10 ET. Oakland won the opener of this series, but since then it's been all Mariners. After back-to-back losses, I expect the A's to dig deep here and find a way to post a "W" in the finale. Note that Oakland 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge two straight losses to an opponent. The visitors hand the ball to Cole Irvin (7-9, 3.42 ERA), who went seven scoreless in a win over the Angels on Monday. Over 113 innings he owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP and 81/20 K/W. The home side counters with the volatile Marco Gonzalez (2-5, 5.69), who gave up two runs over vive innings in a win over the Rockies in his last outing. Starts like that have been few and far between for the third-year pro though this season, and note that he's 0-2 with a 5.34 ERA at home. For all the reasons listed above, lay the reasonable price on the revenge-minded Athletics. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-25-21 | Yankees +131 v. Red Sox | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
The 2nd pick of my STP is an 8* on the NY Yankees at 1:10 ET. New York will be hungry here to win the final game of this four game series. I think the Yanks will indeed do just that, as they face a starting pitcher that they've enjoyed plenty of success against in the past. New York hands the ball to Domingo German (4-5, 4.71 ERA), who enters off a no-decision to the Phillies on Tuesday, allowing two runs and striking out five over four innings. While he's 0-2 with a 4.91 ERA at home, he's 4-3 with a 4.39 ERA on the road. Boston counters with Martin Perez (7-6, 4.16), who lost to these very Yankees last weekend, allowing three runs over four innings. Perez is 2-4 with a 7.04 ERA in nine career outings against the Yankees. German is a more respectable 2-2 with a 4.58 ERA in nine appearances against the Red Sox. Look for German to outduel his inconsistent counterpart and for the Yankees to leave town with a series split. Great value here on New York. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-25-21 | Nationals v. Orioles -126 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 36 m | Show | |
The 1st pick of my STP is an 8* on the Bal Orioles at 1:05 ET. Baltimore has looked decent since coming out of the All Star break, as it's won five of its last six, including two in a row. That includes taking the first two games of this series. I say the the Orioles keep the foot on the gas for one more game with their ace on the mound as they go for the rare series sweep. The Nationals are sliding down the proverbial crapper, as they've lost seven of ten, inluding three straight. With Paolo Espino (2-2, 3.00 ERA) taking the hill for the Nationals, things aren't going to get any easier today either in my opinion. Espino went five scoreless against the Mets in his last outing. It was a step in the right direction, but he's still has a poor 5.28 ERA in 15.1 innings, across four appearances this month. The home side counters with John Means (4-3, 2.72), who is out to atone for a poor outing in his last trip to the hill, allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to the Rays. Over 76 innings though Means has a 0.87 WHIP and 71/13 K/W and he's been fantastic in all day games this year, going 3-2 with a 1.54 ERA. Look for Means and the home side to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Great price, the play is Baltimore. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-24-21 | A's v. Mariners +1.5 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Run-Line Division Dominator (AL West) is on the Sea Mariners at 10:10 ET. Oakland won the opener of this series 4-1, but the Mariners bounced back with a 4-3 victory yesterday. I expect another really tight affair here as well, and because of that I'm going to lay what I deem to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Oakland hands the ball to Chris Bassitt (10-3, 3.31 ERA) who gave up three runs over seven innings in what turned out to be loss to the Indians on Sunday. It's difficult to say too many negative things about Bassitt, so I'm not even going to bother to try. I just think that Logan Gilbert (4-2, 3.50) for the Mariners can match his counterpart inning for inning this evening. Gilbert comes in off a tough road win over the Angels on Sunday, allowing two runs over six innings and striking out a career high nine in the process. Over his first 11 big league starts, Logan is getting progressively better. Not only does he sport the sharp 3.50 ERA over 54 innings of work, but also a tiny 0.98 WHIP and 62/12 K/W. In a contest which I see being decided late or in extra's, I'm laying the price for the runline option on the Mariners. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-24-21 | Blue Jays -114 v. Mets | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on the Tor Blue Jays at 7:10 ET. I had a play on the Mets last night. It was my Interleague Game of the Month. After back-to-back losses though, as Toronto lost 13-4 in its final game in Boston before coming here, I expect the Jays to bounce back on Saturday night. And Toronto has to be feeling confident here in handing the ball to ace Hyun-Jin Ryu (9-5, 3.32 ERA) who went seven scoreless in a win over the Rangers in his last outing. Ryu is 5-1 with a 1.23 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets. New York has issues with its offense at the best of times, and it definitely has issues with elite level pitching. Taijuan Walker (7-3, 2.99) was shelled for six runs over just one-third of an inning in what turned out to be fortunate no-decision against the Padres last Sunday. It was the shortest outing of his career. Walker is 0-3 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts fo the Jays. Toronto has an opportunity here to do what the Mets did to Steven Matz yesterday, and that's score some runs against their former teammate. And that's exactly what I'm expecting Toronto to finally do here. Note that the Jays are a strong 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a shutout road loss to an opponent. All things considered, I think we're getting a great price in this one. The play is Toronto. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-24-21 | Tigers v. Royals -115 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Royals at 7:10 ET. I like the Royals to keep the foot on the gas and build on their three-game win streak. That includes a 5-3 victory in the opener here against the Tigers, who are primed for a letdown in my opinion after their seven-game win streak was snapped in yesterday's setback. Detroit's Casey Mize (5-5, 3.44 ERA) went four scoreless against the Rangers on Monday, in what turned out to be a no-decision. Mize though hasn't gone past the fourth inning in any of his last three starts and I think he'll have his hands full here with this focussed home side. Which counters with Carlos Hernandez (1-1, 4.91), who enters off a strong outing against the Orioles on Sunday, allowing two runs over four innings. While he's 0-0 with a 6.55 ERA on the road, he's 1-1 with a 3.80 ERA at home. Look for home field to prove to be a big difference-maker today between these two rookie starting hurlers. The play is Kansas City. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-23-21 | Angels v. Twins OVER 10 | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
The 3rd pick of my STP is an 8* on the LAA/Min Over at 8:10 ET. We don't have to look any further than these starting pitchers to base our play on the over tonight. I think they are both terrible and ultimatley I believe this will be the contributing factor for this total eclipsing the posted number. Alex Cobb (7-3, 3.96 ERA) is coming off a good start against the lowly Mariners, allowing one run over six innings. Cobb's been on a little hot streak, but note that while he's a great 5-1 with a 2.30 ERA at home, he's a disastrous 2-2 with a 6.47 ERA on the road. The home side counters with the volatile JA Happ (5-5, 6.15), who was shelled for seven runs off 11 hits over seven innings in a loss to the Tigers on Sunday. Happ has been more "miss" than "hit" this year and note that he's only 2-4 with a 7.50 ERA in all night contests this season. While yesterday's game stayed under in the Angels 3-2 win, everything points to this one soaring over the posted number sooner, rather than later. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-23-21 | Cardinals v. Reds -147 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The 2nd pick of my STP is a 7* on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET. The Reds lost here 7-0 to the Mets two nights ago, but I think they'll bounce back in the opener of this one. It's been a poor re-start for Cincinnati, as it's lost five of six since the All Star break. Clearly, the Reds won't be lacking for motivation tonight. They face a contented Cards team that has won five of seven since the All Star game, including two in a row over the Cubs. Both were tight 3-2 victories. St. Louis is 28-20 at home, but it's just 21-28 on the road. The Reds are only 24-25 at home, but everything points to a comfortable victory today. St. Louis hands the ball to Wade LeBlanc (0-2, 4.31 ERA), who has struggled for the most part over four starts this season, posting a poor 9/8 K/W spanning 18 frames of action. The Reds counter with Tyler Mahle (7-3, 3.93), who is coming off an outing to forget against the Brewers on Friday, allowing fiver runs over six innings. He did strikeout eight. Over 100.2 innings of work Mahle owns a sharp 126/38 K/W. His home and away records are disproportional. I think Mahle is the correct call here. This one sets up great for both the Reds and their hungry starting pitcher throwing with a chip on his shoulder. Lay the price, the play is Cincinnati. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-23-21 | Yankees -102 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET. Off a 5-4 loss here in ten innings yesterday and with its ace on the mound, I like New York to bounce back in Bean Town on Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to Gerritt Cole (10-4, 2.63 ERA) who is coming off a win over Boston on the 18th, allowing one run and striking out 11 over six innings. Over his last 15 innings of work Cole has conceded just one run and eight hits. And he has to be feeling confident here, as he's been at his best on the road, going 6-2 with a 2.55 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with the volatile Eduardo Rodriguez (7-5, 5.19), who comes in off a decent start against the Yanks, allowing zero runs over 5.2 innings and striking out eight in the victory last Friday. Rodriguez though has struggled with game-to-game consistency and despite his strong showing last week, I think he's completely overmatched here. Cole isn't getting enough respect in my opinion. The play is New York. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-23-21 | Blue Jays v. Mets -102 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* IL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The New York Mets are hungry for a win here agasint their former teammate. The Mets have won three of their last four, including a 7-0 win at Cincinnati two days ago. The Jays are off back-to-back home losses to the Red Sox, falling 13-4 and 7-4 respectively. Steven Matz (8-4, 4.43 ERA) is coming off a strong outing against the lowly Rangers in Game 3 of Sunday's doubleheader, allowing three hits over five scoreless innings. He's yet to go six innings in any start since May 25th though and note that he owns a poor 5.69 ERA in all night contests this season. The home side counters with Tylor Megill (0-0, 2.63) who will be hungry for his first win. Most recently he went six scoreless against the Pirates. Over 24 innings of work Megill has a sharp 28/9 K/W. The Jays could be caught looking ahead here as well to a crucial four-game series at the Red Sox after this. Matz has struggled with consistency from game-to-game and facing your former team, especially on the road, is never an easy task. I like Megill to build off his recent performance and to finally get off the schneid with a victory here. A great situational play here in my opinion and the price is great as well. The play is the Mets. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-23-21 | Braves v. Phillies -144 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show | |
The 1st pick of my STP is a 7* on the Phil Phillies at 7:05 ET. I like the Phillies to bounce back from yesterday's 7-2 defeat. Philadelphia is hungry now to break a three-game slide. The Braves have alternated wins/losses over their last six games and I expect this pattern to continue here. The visitors hand the ball to Max Fried (7-5, 4.29 ERA) who went seven scoreless in a victory over Tampa last Saturday. If Fried has had one knock against him this season though, it's definitely been his play on the road where he's a poor 2-2 with a ballooned 6.43 ERA. Zach Wheeler (7-5, 2.44) toes the rubber for the home side and he most recently allowed four runs over six innings and struck out seven in a hard-fought win over the Marlins. Over his last 43.1 innings of work Wheeler has a 2.28 ERA and 1.11 WHIP (he has to be feeling confident here as well as he's 4-2 with a 2.16 ERA at home.) I love the revenge-minded home side in this spot. Lay the price with confidence. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-22-21 | Angels v. Twins -135 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. I think Kenta Maeda and the hungry home side are well worth the price of admission in this one. The Angels have lost three straight and I expect that slide to continue. At least one more game anyways. Minnesota won't be lacking for motivation here. It's played six games since the break and it's gone just 2-4. It's off a 7-2 win at Chicago yesterday and I expect them to build off that peformance with another victory here at home. The Angels hand the ball to Andrew Heaney (5-7, 5.56 ERA), who enters in terrible form, as over his last five starts he's gone 1-4 with a ballooned 8.49 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. I can't see Heaney suddenly "flipping a switch" and correcting all of his issues. This is his worst statistical campaign of his career by far and I think he'll struggle to keep pace with Maeda (4-3, 4.71), who most recently conceded three runs and struck out eight over five innings in the second game of a double-header against Detroit, not factoring into the decision. Maeda has struggled this year as well, but he's been getting progressively better with each outing over the last month, as his latest victory saw him top at least seven strikeouts for a third straight time. Over 72.2 innings of work this year Maeda now owns a respectable 79/24 K/W and everything points to his continued progression this evening. Considering the current form of these starting pitchers, I say we're getting great value on the home side. Lay the price, the play is Minnesota. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-22-21 | Cubs v. Cardinals -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout-Part 2 is on the StL Cardinals at 7:15 ET. As soon as I saw this starting pitching matchup, I loved it. I would have probably made this a top-rated 10* release if St. Louis lost yesterday, but regardless, I still think this is fantastic value on a great in-form hurler. St. Louis hands the ball to Kwang Hyun Kim (5-5, 2.87 ERA), who looked strong in his first start out of the break, going five scoreless against the hard-hitting Giants on Saturday. Kim has now posted 19 straight scoreless innings over his last three starts and he's won his last four straight trips to the hill. Chicago sees Adbert Alzolay (4-9, 4.59) take the hill, and he enters off a decent outing, giving up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Alzolay is a respectable 3-3 with a 4.18 ERA, but a pedestrian/poor 1-6 with a 5.12 ERA on the road. Kim is 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in two previous starts against the Cubs, while Alzolay is 0-4 with a 5.84 ERA in five starts since returning from the IL on June 21st. These starters are moving in opposite directions and all signs point to those trends continuing here. Great value on the home side in this one. The play is St. Louis. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-22-21 | Rays v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* AL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on TB/Cle Under at 7:10 ET. Neither team is really known for its offensive power, but both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring affairs of late, with Tampa having seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five, including in its 5-4 win at home over Baltimore yesterday. This is the opener of an important four-game series for the Indians, who broke a two game slide to the Astros with a 5-4 win in Houston yesteday in the finale. After seeing the total go under in three straight, the Tribe have now seen it soar over in back-to-back contests. But the opener of this one in my opinion sets up well as more of a lower-scoring "duel." The Rays hand the ball to Luis Patino (1-2, 4.87 ERA) will be given a chance to remain in the rotation with a decent outing today. Over six appearances and four starts he owns a very respectable 1.18 WHIP. The home side counters with Cal Quantrill (2-2, 4.05), who looked sharp in his first start after the break, allowing one run with five strikeouts over five innings in a victory over the A's on Saturday. It was a big step in the right direction for Quantrill and I see no reason why he can't build off that performance. Note as well, while he's 1-2 with 4.44 ERA on the road, he's 1-0 with a 3.71 ERA at home. Cleveland has seen the total go under in seven of its last nine as well after playing to two or more straight overs as well. Look for these two hungry starting pitchers to garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's re-caps of this contest. This number is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-21-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the White Sox. This is the finale of a four-game series. Minnesota took the first game by a score of 3-2, but Chicago has taken the next two, winning 5-3 and 9-5. I think the White Sox will find a way to secure the 3-1 series victory on Wednesday night. The Twins hand the ball to Michael Pineda (3-5, 4.11 ERA), and he gave up five runs off 12 hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to these very White Sox in his final start before the break. Pineda has now conceded three or more runs in three of his last four outings and a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get things turned around, as he's just 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. Dylan Cease (7-5, 4.15) is coming off a loss to the Astros on Friday, allowing three runs and striking out ten over six innings. Cease pitched well enough to win, but didn't. He'll be feeling confident here though, as while he's a poor 3-4 with a 6.31 ERA on the road this season, he's a "lights out" 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA at home. Cease is the correct call here. The Twins bullpen is questionable as well. I'm laying the price, and expecting a decisive home victory. The play is the White Sox. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-21-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* RUN LINE Las Vegas Insider is on the Jays. Whoever gets the start for the Red Sox tonight, I like Robbie Ray and the Blue Jays to win by a decisive margin. And that's why I like the home side on the runline option this evening. Garrett Richards (5-5, 4.91 ERA) is scheduled right now to start for the Red Sox. He's 1-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three starts against the Jays this year and he's 3-5 with a 5.26 ERA in 11 career outings against them. The home side counters with the red hot Ray (8-4, 2.93), who won his only start against the Red Sox this season back in early June, allowing three runs and striking out ten over six innings. Ray has gotten stronger as the season has prorgressed and he gave up no runs over seven innings and struck out ten in a win over the Rangers in his last outing. He has to be feeling confident here as well as he's 5-2 with a 2.70 ERA in all home contests this year. Look for the hard-hitting Jays to take full advantage of their AL East rival, who sits nine games ahead of them in the standings. Toronto not only wins tonight, it wins BIG. The play is the Jays on the runline. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-21-21 | Mets -128 v. Reds | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* Getaway Day game is on the NY Mets at 12:35 ET. The Mets have lost three of their first five games since the All Star Break, including yestreday's contest here 4-3. With its ace on the mound though, I think that New York will find a way to get the job done in the finale. Marcus Stroman (6-8, 2.78 ERA) is off a loss Friday against the Pirates, allowing two runs over five innings. Stroman's been a bright spot in the Mets rotation and he has to be feeling confident here as he's a solid 4-3 with a 3.20 ERA in all day games. The home side hands the ball to Jeff Hoffman (3-4, 4.61), who will move back to the bullpen when others return from the injured list. Hoffman has been decent in his limited time, but h hasn't appeared in a game since May 26th due to a sore shoulder. Over six appearances and four career starts against the Mets though, Hoffman is 1-1 with a 7.43 ERA> Stroman is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two career outings against the Reds. Look for the Mets to respond after yesterday's narrow defeat. The play is New York. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-20-21 | Suns +5 v. Bucks | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -107 | 38 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Suns. I had a play on the Suns in Game 5 and while that pick obviously fell flat, I think that Phoenix will at the very least, take Game 6 right down to the wire. Many felt that the Suns were going to sweep the Bucks in four straight in this series and it definitely appeared as if that could happen after Phoenix took the early 2-0 lead. But it's been all Milwaukee since, as the Bucks have a golden opportunity to close out and win the title this evening. It's difficult to beat a team in three straight games. No matter who the opponent is. I think Milwaukee is going to struggle to put away this talented and desperate Suns side. One constant throughout for Phoenix has been the steady play of Devin Booker, who has 82 combined points over his last two games. The Suns bench only produced 15 points last time out, but I don't expect that to happen twice. Phoenix is also 8-2 ATS in its last ten in trying to revenge two straight SU/ATS losses to an opponent as well. Look for Chris Paul to bounce back with a big game here and for the Suns to fight tooth and nail until the final buzzer. While the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. The play is Phoenix. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-20-21 | Phillies v. Yankees +112 | 4-6 | Win | 112 | 12 h 46 m | Show | |
The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Yankees. New York took two of three from the Red Sox over the weekend and I like them to find a way to take Game 1 of this interleague series on Tuesday night as well. Philadelphia took three of four at home from the Marlins, but I believe a predictable letdown is in order here now that the Phillies hit the road. Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.53 ERA) was placed on the COVID IL before the break, but he's off and back in the rotation. While Nola is 3-2 with a 3.56 ERA at home this season, he's just 3-3 with a 5.42 ERA on the road. Nola is having a "down" year for his lofty standards, but he's always pitched much better at home than on the road throughout his career. New York counters with Domingo German (4-5, 4.72), who pitched a scoreless relief inning during a loss to the Red Sox last Friday. German is just 1-3 with a 6.56 ERA in all "day" games, but a solid 3-2 with a 3.50 ERA in all "night" contests. Look for New York to build off its series win over the Red Sox with a victory in this opener. Great value on the Yankees on Tuesday night. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-20-21 | Marlins -113 v. Nationals | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Marlins. The Marlins have now lost three in a row after yesterday's humbling series opening 18-1 loss to the Nationals. With their bona-fide ace on the mound though, I like the Fish to bounce back finally. The Nationals are in trouble with their starting rotation, and I say that comes back to bite them tonight. Miami hands the ball to Trevor Rogers (7-6, 2.31 ERA) who plays with revenge here after losing his only other start against the Nats earlier thi syear, allowing three runs over five innings. Rogers has a significant advantage over counterpart Paolo Espino (2-2, 3.33) who is 0-0 with an 11.25 ERA in two career meetings against Miami. Espino is being pressed into service out of neccessity here and I definitely think he's outclassed. And the fact that the Marlins are 7-1 in their last eight in tryihng to revene a road loss of ten or more runs doesn't hurt either obviously. I look for a rested Rogers to bounce back and deliver a victory here for the hungry visiting side. The play is the Marlins. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-20-21 | Royals v. Brewers -165 | 5-2 | Loss | -165 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Brewers. Kansas City has lost eight of its last ten and I believe it's in over its head here as well in the opener of this interleague series on Tuesday afternoon. The Royals hand the ball to Mike Minor (6-8, 5.67 ERA), who was shelled for six runs off nine hits over four innings in a loss to the Tribe in his final outing before the break. Minor had lost four in a row and posted a poor 11/8 K/W over those 20 innings of work. Minor has struggled in every facet, as note that he's conceded a home in seven of his last eight starts. The Brewers come in confident after crushing the Reds oveer the weekend in three straight games. Milwaukee hands the ball to Brett Anderson (2-5, 4.33), who will be eager to return to the winners circle after an unfortunate no-decision back on July 8th, going four scoreless against the Mets in the first game of a double-header. Note, while he's 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA on the road, Anderson is 1-1 with a 2.86 ERA at home. Look for Anderson to continue his sharp play at home and for the Brewers to make the most of their inconsistent opposing starting pitcher. Lay the price with confidence, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-20-21 | Angels v. A's -137 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Athletics. After two straight losses, the A's bounced back and won the opener of this series 4-1 yesterday. I think they make it two in a row here in what I believe to be a very favorable starting pitching matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Suarez (4-2, 2.04 ERA), who gave up one run over five innings in a win over the light-hitting Mariners on July 13th. The rookie has been sharp early with a 33/15 K/W over 35.1 innings, but I expect regression to happen sooner, rather than later. The A's counter with James Kaprielian (4-3, 2.90), who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Rangers back on July 10th. Kaprielian has for sure been at his best at home this year as well, going 2-2 with a tiny 1.38 ERA. Kaprielian could/should in fact be a much larger favorite in this spot in my opinion and that swings the value to the home side. Lay the price, the play is Oakland Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-19-21 | Giants +114 v. Dodgers | 7-2 | Win | 114 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
My 9* BEST BET Rivalry Rout is on the Giants. Off back-to-back losses in which their offense was held to one run in each, I like the Giants to find a way to get the job done on the road and pull off the slight upset here against the defending champs. San Fran beat St. Louis 7-2 in the opener, but then lost 3-1 and 2-1. The Dodgers failed to sweep at Colorado yesterday, falling apart in the latter frames of yesterday's 6-5 defeat. Here's a great spot for the Giants to bounce-back in as they catch the Dodgers off a road loss and returning home. Kevin Gausman (9-3, 1.73 ERA) has been the Giants' ace all season and this is his first start of the second half. He has to be feeling confident despite the tough road start, as note that he's 5-2 with a minuscule 1.36 ERA away from friendly confines this season. Tony Gonsolin (1-0, 2.13) has excelled in his time in the Dodgers' rotation and it's difficult to say too many negative things about him, so I won't bother. I do just think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time though, facing a Giants team which is 8-3 in its last 11 after back-to-back road losses. I like a rested Gausman to get the better of Gonsolin and for the Giants to bounce back here after consecutive poor outings. The play is San Francisco. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-19-21 | Pirates v. Diamondbacks -120 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show | |
The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Arizona Diamondbacks. Pittsburgh opened up the second half with consecutive wins over the Mets, but New York rallied late in last night's 7-6 Pirates' loss. I think Pittsburgh takes another predictable step-back here as well in this difficult road venue. Arizona comes in on the other end of the spectrum, as it lost its first two opening gamees at home to the Cubs, before than rallying for a 6-4 victory here last night. I like the D-Backs to carry that momentum over here. The Pirates hand the ball to Chase De Jong (1-3, 5.59 ERA), who was shelled for five runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Mets about two weeks ago. Over 38.2 innings De Jong owns an unimpressive 33/17 K/W. Caleb Smith (2-5, 4.54) was annihilated in his final outing before the break, allowing nine runs to the Dodgers over one inning. Smith looks to reverse his fortunes here at home in this favorable matchup. Note that he's 1-4 with a 5.55 ERA on the road, while going 1-2 with a 3.93 ERA at home. Expect Arizona to build off last night's win and for the Pirates to stumble in the opener of this road series. The play is the Diamondbacks. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-19-21 | Mets v. Reds -119 | Top | 15-11 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDERS is on the Reds. The Mets bounced back from a pair of losses at Pittsburgh to avoid the three-game sweep with a late 7-6 come-from-behind victory against the Pirates last night, but I think they'll stumble again here. The Reds certainly won't be lacking for motivation though after three straight losses at home to Milwaukee to kick off the secondhalf. That included an 8-0 setback yesterday. This though is a starting pitching matchup which favors the home side and it's the primary reason I like the Reds here. That and the price. Also note that Cincinnati is 7-1 in its last eight after three or more straight home losses in a row. The vistors hand the ball to Jerad Eickhoff (0-1, 4.97 ERA), who has made three appearances in 2021 for the Mets spanning 12.2 innings and he's posted the unspectacular ERA to go along with a poor 1.66 WHIP. The home side counters with Vladimir Gutierrez (4-3, 4.29), who gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision to the Brewers in his last outing. Of the nine starts he's made this year, five of them have been quality. I like Gutierrez over Eickhoff. I think the Reds find a way to get back into the winners circle after getting swept and in this favorable spot. And as mentioned, the price is great too. The play is Cincinnati. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-19-21 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 20 m | Show | |
The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Red Sox on the runline. Obviously the Jays are a great hitting team. But the Red Sox are pretty good too. This is a pitching matchup which favors the visiting side as well. While I do think the outright is very possible, in a game which I think will be decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Jays just beat Texas twice, winning 10-2 and 10-0. Boston comes in as the hungrier team here for sure, as it dropped two of three in the Big Apple over the weekend, including yesterday's 9-1 setback. Nick Pivetta (7-4, 4.30 ERA) faltered over the final couple of week of the first half, but the extra time off will be beneficial here in my opinion. Note that Pivetta is 4-2 with a 2.92 ERA on the road this season. Ross Stripling (3-5, 4.34) also stumbled over the first half, most recently allowing four runs over three innings in a loss to the Rays. I think it's significant to note that Stripling is 3-2 with 3.27 ERA in all "day" games, while going 0-3 with a 5.96 ERA in all "night" games this season. Look for Boston to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The play is the Red Sox on the runline. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-19-21 | Twins v. White Sox -1.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the White Sox on runline. The Twins just lost three in a row in Detroit over the weekend, and I think they're overmatched here as well. In fact in my opinion, the talent discrepancy on the mound today between starting pitchers absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the much better price for Lance Lynn and the home side. Lynn (9-3, 1.99 ERA) just signed a two-year extension to stay with Chicago. Lynn has been fantastic no matter where he's been this year, but particularly effective at home by going 6-2 with a 1.53 ERA. The Twins counter with Griffin Jax (1-1, 8.66) who is being asked to make this spot start on a call up from Triple-A St. Paul. Over 17.2 innings this year not only does Jax have the atrocious 8.66 ERA, but he also sports a terrible 1.70 WHIP. No need to overthink this one, the play is Chicago on the runline. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-18-21 | Indians v. A's -161 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -161 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* AL BLOWOUT OF THE MONTH is on the A's. Oakland took the opener of this series by a score of 5-4, but then Cleveland bounced back with the big upset 3-2 victory on Saturday. The A's though are poised to win this series on Sunday with the superior starting pitcher on the hill though. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Plesac (4-3, 4.31), who came off the injured list to make a final start before the break, and he'd go four innings against the Royals and concede three runs. Note that despite a 3-2 record on the road, Plesac's ERA balloons to 4.98 away from friendly confines. Oakland counters with ace Chris Bassitt (10-2, 3.28), who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the Rangers in his last outing on July 12th. While he's 6-0 with a 3.88 ERA on the road, he's 4-2 with a 2.55 ERA at home. One final note of interest sees the A's having gone 7-1 in their last eight in trying to revenge a one run home loss to an opponent in which they were held to two or less runs in. Expect Bassitt to easily get the better of Plesac and lay this price with confidence. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-18-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies +1.5 | 5-6 | Win | 105 | 7 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* RUNLINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Rockies. Colorado has gotten smashed in the first two games of this series, falling 10-4 in the opener and then 9-2 yesterday. However, I think this is a starting pitching matchup which favors the home side. In a contest which I seeing being much tighter than the first two, my strongest play on this one will be to play the home side on the runline option. David Price (4-0, 3.23 ERA) has been working out of the bullpen all year for the Dodgers, but with Trevor Bauer on the shelf, he's been pressed into a starters role. Price clearly isn't in unchartered territory, but he draws a tough matchup here in a very difficult road venue. Regression does seem imminent for the 35 year veteran in my opinion. Colorado counters with Jon Gray (6-6, 3.77) who comes in off a gem over the Padres, allowing one run with seven strikeouts over six innings. Gray enters on top form, having posted three straight quality starts and note that he's been at his best at home this season, going 5-2 with a 3.23 ERA at Coors so far. I say Price takes a step back here. The play is Colorado on the runline. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-18-21 | Astros v. White Sox -124 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Chicago White Sox. I had a play on Chicago yesterday in its big 10-1 victory and I think it's going to carry that momentum over here. The Astros go with Framber Valdez (5-1, 2.98 ERA), who was a bit shaky in his final start before the break, allowing three runs and six walks off six hits in a no-decision to the Yankees. In fact, Valdez's numbers are "smoke and mirrors" for the most part now, as the 27-year old southpaw has now conceded 14 earned runs with a pedestrian 28/15 K/W over his last five outings. Chicago counters with Carlos Rodon (7-3, 2.31) who threw a gem in his final start before the All star game, allowing one run and striking out six over six innings in a victory over Minnesota on Tuesday. Rodon has now struck out at least eight batters in nine consecutive starts and to go along with his tiny ERA, he also sports a sharp 0.96 WHIP. I love Chicago in this spot and don't think that Rodon is getting nearly enough respect. In my opinion, this is the very definition of "great line value." The play is Chicago. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-18-21 | Orioles v. Royals -128 | 5-0 | Loss | -128 | 5 h 57 m | Show | |
The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Royals. After yesterday's 8-4 defeat, I like the home side to bounce back and to deliver a series victory on Sunday afternoon. The Orioles hand the ball to the volatile Matt Harvey (3-10, 7.70 ERA), who gave up six runs off nine hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Blue Jays in his final outing before the break. Harvey has been down right terrible no matter where he's thrown and I don't expect that trend to change here. The home side counters with Carlos Hernandez (1-0, 4.98), who has a decent 30/15 K/W over 21.2 innings of work. Hernandez has made 12 appearances this year, and none have been starts. Until today. I think the 6'4", 250 pound rookie is the correct call here against "gas can" Harvey. Finally, note that the Royals are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded nine or more runs in. Great value on the hungry home side. The play is KC. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-18-21 | Mets -145 v. Pirates | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 46 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the New York Mets. There was an overnight pitching change for the Mets, as Jacob deGrom has been replaced by Taijuan Walker. I liked New York with deGrom going on the runline option, and I also like the Mets and Walker here as well, but in this case I believe the visiting side is well worth the price of admission on the money line. Walker (7-3, 2.50 ERA) gave up two runs off four hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Pirates in his last start back on July 9th. Walker is putting together the best season of his career, as he enters the second half with a highly respectable 1.03 WHIP and impressive 89/30 K/W over 90 innings. The home side counters with the volatile JT Brubaker (4-9, 4.47), who comes into this one with zero momentum, having lost four straight now after allowing six runs over five innings to these very Metropolitans back on July 10th. Over his last 23.2 innings of work, Brubaker has now conceded a ghastly 16 runs. Look for Walker to fill in nicely here and deliver with another solid performance. Lay the price, the play is New York. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-17-21 | Bucks v. Suns -4 | Top | 123-119 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* NBA GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Suns. I've been riding the Bucks the last couple of games, but here I'm going the other way in Game 5. So far home court advantage has proven to be the difference-maker for these teams, with the Suns winning Game's 1 and 2 handily, before the Bucks responding in kind in Milwaukee in Game's 3 and 4. Khris Middleton had his biggest game of the Finals so far for the Bucks in Game 4, scoring 40 points, grabbing six boards and dishing out four assists. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 26 points, 14 boards and eight assists. Antetokounmpo has been unbelievable so far in the Finals, but other than his big Game 4 appearance, Middleton hasn't been a very big factor in this series. The same thing can be said for the struggling Jrue Holiday, who was just 4 of 20 for 17 points in Game 4 for the Bucks. Clearly, Phoenix has to be happy its back home. That includes Chris Paul, who uncharacteristically struggled in back-to-back games in Milwaukee. Suffice it to say, I don't expect lightning to strike a third time tonight. I say Paul bounces back here at home. Devin Booker led the way in a losing cause for the Suns in Game 4 with 42 points. Paul and Booker have to be feeling confident here though finally, as note that Phoenix is 36-16 ATS in its last 52 home games and 46-19-1 ATS in its last 66 against teams with winning records. After back-to-back victories, a letdown is imminent here for Milwaukee, which is in fact a poor 3-11 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog. I look for this home court trend to continue in Game 5. And if this keeps up, we're heading for a Game 7 before you know it! Lay the points, the play is Phoenix. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-17-21 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-9 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Mariners/Angels. While yesterday's game flew over the number in the Mariners 6-5 upset win, I believe Saturday's contest definitely sets up as more of a pitchers duel. Seattle looks to post back-to-back victories by handing the ball to Yusei Kikuchi (6-4, 3.48 ERA), who missed the All Star game due to COVID protocol. Kikuchi is now fine and cleared to play though and he has to be feeling confident in this spot, as note that he's 4-1 with a 2.71 ERA on the road, compared to 2-3 with a 4.48 ERA at home. The Angels counter with Alex Cobb (6-3, 4.23), who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to these very Mariners back on July 10th. Cobb has quietly turned the corner for a while now, as he's allowed only one earned run over his last 13 innings of work. Also note, while Cobb is 2-2 with a 6.47 ERA on the road, he's 4-1 with a 2.49 ERA at home. I think the stage is set for a good old fashioned "duel" on Saturday night. This number is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-17-21 | Astros v. White Sox -104 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago White Sox. I had a play on the White Sox yesterday, and while that pick came up short, I expect the home side to bounce back here on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi (3-4, 3.61 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in what turned out to be a loss to the Yankees in his last start back on July 10th. Over 47.1 innings of work, Odorizzi sports a respectable 44/12 K/W, but I think he's in over his head here against the White Sox' Lucas Giolito (7-6, 4.15) who gave up two runs over 5.1 innings in an 8-3 win over the Orioles on Saturday. The Astros have the best overall offense in the league right now, but the White Sox aren't far behind at fourth. I think regression is in order for Odorizzi, and I believe the break came at the wrong time for the veteran. Who entered on a roll, but who I expect will indeed take a step back finally. Giolito continues to grind out wins. He's been better at home than on the road. The White Sox play with revenge here. It's a PERFECT STORM of factors working in favor of the White Sox in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-17-21 | Padres v. Nationals +120 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Nationals. I had a play on Washington last night, and it obviously came up short in its 24-8 loss to the Padres. After that humbling setback, I think that the Nationals dig deep and find a way to respond on Saturday night against Blake Snell, who has been a disaster on the road this year. Washington's losing streak has now been extended to five games after yesterday's beatdown. Snell (3-3, 4.99 ERA) went on the ten day IL just before the break, so this will be his first start in 13 days. He could be on a short leash. As I mentioned above though, while he's 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA at home, he's a terrible 0-3 with a 9.22 ERA on the road. That leaves the door open here for the hungry Patrick Corbin (6-7, 5.40), who is coming off a victory in his final start befor the All Star game, allowing two runs over six innings vs. the Padres. Note that Corbin has been better at home than on the road as well, going 1-4 with a 6.32 ERA away from friendly confines, and 5-3 with a 4.72 ERA in the Nation's capital. Coming into that contest, the Padres offense had been inconsistent. I say San Diego comes back down to Earth here on Saturday. I like Corbin in this spot. Great value on the hungry home side. The play is the Nationals. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-16-21 | Mariners v. Angels -157 | 6-5 | Loss | -157 | 15 h 41 m | Show | |
The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Angels. I've won a few times with Chris Flexen and the Mariners this season, but I think Andrew Heaney can, at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning tonight. But this is a hitting matchup which favors the home side in my opinion, and it's worth laying the price in the end. Flexen (8-3, 3.51 ERA) went seven scoreless against these very Angels in his final outing before the break. Flexen has been unbelievable over his last four starts, but if he's had one clear weakness, it's been his play on the road this year. Despite a winning 2-1 win/loss record, Flexen sports an atrocious 6.97 ERA away from friendly confines this season. Heaney (5-6, 5.38) is coming off a much needed victory over the Red Sox in his final start before the break, giving up three runs with five strikeouts over six innings. Over 77 innings of work Heaney owns a 94:26 K:BB and I think he can build off his latest victory. The Angels' David Fletcher has a 24-game hitting streak going. Last Sunday against the Mariners he was 4 of 5 with four RBI's. Look for Fletcher and the home side to deliver another victory here to open up the second half. Lay the price, the play is LA. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-16-21 | Astros v. White Sox +127 | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 11 m | Show | |
My 8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the White Sox. I think these starting pitchers are more evenly matched than what this line is suggesting, and to me, that swings the value to the undervalued home underdog then. And to say this is a "revenge" game/series would be an understatement, as the Astros took all four games at home over the ChiSox in June, winning by a combined margin of 27-8. The Astros see Lance McCullers (6-2, 2.94 ERA) take the hill. He's had success against the White Sox in the past, going 3-1 with a 2.37 ERA. Dylan Cease (7-4, 4.11) counters for the home side. Cease has struggled in two career outings against the Astros (0-2, 7.71 ERA), but off a great final outing to end the first half (allowing two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Orioles), I like Cease in this spot. Finally note, while Cease is a poor 3-4 with a 6.31 ERA on the road this year, he's an amazing 4-0 with a 1.83 ERA at home. The White Sox have won five in a row and I expect them to deliver in the second half opener at home. Great value here on Chicago. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-16-21 | Rays v. Braves -124 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Braves. This is a very intriguing opening interleague series to kick things off in the second half, but I think that this opening contest is one which favors the home side. The Rays see Michael Wacha (2-2, 4.87 ERA), gave up one run over six innings in Game 1 of a double-header vs. the Indians last Wednesday. Wacha though has been consistently inconsistent all year, as he's allowed at least five runs in two of his last four appearances (note as well that he's just 1-2 with a ballooned 5.86 ERA on the road this season.) The Braves counter with Charlie Morton (8-3, 3.64), who enters the second half on top form, most recently posting eight strikeouts over seven scoreless in a win over the Marlins in his final outing before the break. Over 99 innings of work, Morton owns an elite 114/33 K/W, and he's 8-2 with a 2.91 ERA in all "night" contests this season. Ronald Acuna Jr. is out of the lineup for the Braves after suffering and ACL tear on Saturday for the Marlins, but now it's just "next man up" for the Braves. Freddie Freeman has a .274 average, along with 19 home runs and 50 RBI's for the Braves over the first half and I expect the veteran slugger to pick up the slack in the second for his fallen teammate. Finally, note that Wacha is 0-4 with a 4.91 ERA in seven career appearances against the Braves. I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. Great value here on Atlanta at home to open up the second half. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-16-21 | Rangers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Blue Jays on the run-line. Jordan Lyles (5-5, 4.86 ERA) closed the first half strong. Can the veteran hurler keep that momentum rolling in the second half? He draws a tough opponent to open things up and I believe the answer is in fact "no," he can't. Lyles posted four straight quality starts to close out the first half, but note the he's just 3-4 with a ballooned 5.36 ERA in all "night" games this year (he's 1-0 with a 6.08 ERA in three career games against the Jays.) Robbie Ray (7-4, 3.13) enters the second half on top form and I don't see any reason not to believe that he can't keep the good times rolling here. Ray gave up one hit and struck out 11 over seven innings in a win over the Rays on Sunday. Ray has been particularly effective at home this season as well, going 4-2 with a 3.03 ERA. The Blue Jays welcome back their team of All Star sluggers to the line-up, including MVP Vlad Guerrero Jr. Look for Ray to go deep and for Lyles to get the hook early. In this case, I'm going to lay the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The play is Toronto on the runline option. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-16-21 | Padres v. Nationals +127 | 24-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Nationals. I like Erik Fedde and the Nationals to pull off the minor upset to open up the second half. The visitors see Chris Paddack (4-6, 5.40 ERA) toe the rubber tonight. Paddack actually lost to Washington in his last outing before the break, getting shelled for nine runs off nine hits over two innings. Paddack has actually been better on the road than at home, but he's still a poor 2-3 with a ballooned 6.23 ERA in all "night" games this season. Fedde (4-6, 4.59) struggled against the Padres last week as well, allowing six runs over five innings. But I trust this Washington bullpen more right now. The Padres were struggling at the plate over the final month of the first half, and they were playing sloppy defense as well. In my opinion, the stage is set for a minor upset in the Nation's capital on Friday night. The play is the Nationals. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Game 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the Bucks. Gentlemen. I had a play on the Bucks in Game 3, a blowout winner and if you didn't get to read that analysis, I'm going to share it now, as the logic and reasoning behind that pick, for the most part also directly apply to my Game 4 selection on Milwaukee as well: GAME 3 ANALYSIS I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1. I then had a play on the Bucks in Game 2. I'm going back to the well here in Game 3, as I do finally expect Giannis Antetokounmpo's teammates to show up tonight. Antetokounmpo exploded for 42 points, 12 boards and four assists in Game 2, but it wasn't enough to avoid the 0-2 hole. But now that this series is shifting back to Milwaukee, I think the momentum will shift in favor of the Bucks here. The Suns are a better team at home and they took advantage of a tired Milwaukee club in Game 1. Game 2 wasn't nearly as easy, and Antetokounmpo almost pulled off the upset with little help. Khris Middleton hasn't been effective to this point, but I don't expect that trend to continue here on his own floor. This is it for Milwaukee. A 3-0 hole will be too much to climb out of (just ask the Montreal Canadiens!). Phoenix will likely win this series. I think they're the better overall team. But the Suns haven't been perfect either. Phoenix might not even be in the Finals if Kawhi Leonard was playing for LA, as Paul George and company gave Phoenix a real test. Milwaukee shut down the Nets and I think it can bounce back here in this crucial moment. So that's my read on this one gentlemen, I say the Bucks do indeed bounce back in Game 3. I'll further add here in Game 4, that the Suns are now going to be forced to double and triple-team Antetokounmpo after his back-to-back historic performances, which will finally give Middleton and Holiday a golden opportunity to break out of their respective funks with a huge game. I say the momentum has now swung back in favor of Milwaukee and I believe the "home court" advantage will once again prove to be a difference-maker as well. Lay the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 52 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Milwaukee Bucks. I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1. I then had a play on the Bucks in Game 2. I'm going back to the well here in Game 3, as I do finally expect Giannis Antetokounmpo's teammates to show up tonight. Antetokounmpo exploded for 42 points, 12 boards and four assists in Game 2, but it wasn't enough to avoid the 0-2 hole. But now that this series is shifting back to Milwaukee, I think the momentum will shift in favor of the Bucks here. The Suns are a better team at home and they took advantage of a tired Milwaukee club in Game 1. Game 2 wasn't nearly as easy, and Antetokounmpo almost pulled off the upset with little help. Khris Middleton hasn't been effective to this point, but I don't expect that trend to continue here on his own floor. This is it for Milwaukee. A 3-0 hole will be too much to climb out of (just ask the Montreal Canadiens!). Phoenix will likely win this series. I think they're the better overall team. But the Suns haven't been perfect either. Phoenix might not even be in the Finals if Kawhi Leonard was playing for LA, as Paul George and company gave Phoenix a real test. Milwaukee shut down the Nets and I think it can bounce back here in this crucial moment. So that's my read on this one gentlemen, I say the Bucks do indeed bounce-back in Game 3. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-11-21 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -118 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* NL WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the UNDER D-Backs/Dodgers. The Dodgers blew out the Diamondbacks here by a score of 22-1 yesterday. Lop-sided contests like that happen a few times over the course of every season, but after that huge offensive explosion, I'm anticipating much more of a "duel" in Sunday's finale. Arizona goes with Merrill Kelly (5-7, 4.60 ERA) who has slowly improved with each start over the last month. He posted three straight victories, before than taking a no-decision against the Rockies on Tuesday, despite allowing two runs over six innings. Note that since June 21st, Kelly hasn't conceded more than three earned runs and he's recored a 2.13 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 18/2 K/W in that span. He'll be opposed by Tony Gonsolin (1-0, 2.11), who is also off a no-decision despite allowing no runs over 5.1 innings against the Marlins. Gonsolin has been making spot starts and working out of the bullpen as he nears full strength after a stint on the injured list. Over 21.1 frames of work he has the 2.11 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. Finally, note that Arizona has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last ten in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which it conceded ten or more runs in. I think the stage is set for a defensive battle between these clubs on Sunday afternoon. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-11-21 | Yankees v. Astros -130 | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 20 m | Show | |
My 9* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Astros. I had a play on the Yankees yesterday (my lone winner, as I finished 1-2 overall.) New York held on for the 1-0 victory with ace Gerritt Cole on the mound. The Yanks took two of three from Seattle in their previous series as well, before laying an egg in the finale with 4-0 loss. With the All Star break on the horizon, and having alreday won this series, I think the Yanks get clasically caught "looking ahead" here. The Astros though won't be taking this game so lightly. After a six-game win streak, Houston enters having lost three straight. I say the home side "comes to play" today as it looks to avoid the series sweep. This is a starting pitching matchup which favors the home side as well in my opinion. New York goes with Jameson Taillon (4-4, 5.05 ERA), who earned a win over Seattle in his last outing, giving up one run and striking ou nine over seven innings. Taillon has been satisfactory this year for New York, but one thing is for certain, he's been much better at home than on the road (is 3-1 with a 3.62 ERA in New York, compared to a terrible 1-3 with a ballooned 8.25 ERA away from friendly confines.) Framber Valdez (5-1, 2.86) is coming off an outing to forget for the Astros, allowing six runs over five innings in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision to the A's on Tuesday. Valdez has been a bit shaky over his last two starts, but he's still 2-0 with a 3.52 ERA at home. I say he settles down here and rises to the occassion. The Astros are also still 11-4 in their last 15 home games as a favorite in the -115 to -145 range. Great value here on the revenge-minded home side. The play is Houston. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-10-21 | Angels -110 v. Mariners | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Angels. I like the Angels to bounce back after their 7-3 loss here last night. And after back-to-back victories, I expect the Mariners to take a predictable step back here. Despite their win/loss records, these starting pitchers are pretty evenly matched. The Angels go with Patrick Sandoval (2-2, 3.86 ERA), who gave up two runs and struck out seven over five innings in a no-decision to the Orioles on Sunday. Over 49 innings Sandoval owns a respectable 53/22 K/W. The Mariners turn to Chris Flexen (7-3, 3.80), who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Rangers on Sunday. Flexen has posted five straight quality starts. He's been much better at home than on the road, but as I say, for arguments sakes, I'm going to call the starters a "wash" today. Neither has that big of an advantage over the other. LA though has still won five of its last seven games. It's also 4-0 in its last four vs. a right-handed starter and 4-0 in Sandoval's last four starts. The Mariners on the other hand are just 2-6 in their last eight after back-to-back victories as underdogs. Look for the big bats of LA to rebound and for Sandoval to do the rest. The play is the Angels. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-10-21 | Yankees +100 v. Astros | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
My 9* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the New York Yankees. I like the Yanks to build off their 4-0 win here yesterday. New York has now won four of its last five. Garrett Cole (8-4, 2.91 ERA) will look to get the better of his former teams here. Cole is coming off an outing to forget against the Mets, allowing four runs over 3.1 innings ni Game 1 of Sunday's doubleheader. This is a big game and moment for Cole in my estimation. Since MLB started cracking down on pitchers, Cole has actually struggled. He's given up 21 runs over his last 34.1 innings of work. His early sparkling numbers were unrealistic, but so too is this scuffling patch in my opinion. With one last opportunity to impress before the break, I think Cole steps up and delivers in this spot (he's 5-2 with 3.00 ERA on the road.) It won't be a walk in the park facing Zach Greinke (8-2, 3.64), who is 6-1 with a 3.24 ERA over his last ten starts. One thing I'll point out though, is that Grienke's numbers are deceiving, as note that he's 5-0 with a 2.25 ERA on the road, while 3-2 with a ballooned 5.28 ERA at home. New York has ground to make up and in my opinion, this one just means a lot more to it. I'll take Cole at this price vs. his former team and expecting the visiting side to build off its solid victory yesterday here. The play is New York. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-10-21 | Braves v. Marlins +100 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Marlins. I like the Marlins to bounce back after their 5-0 loss here to the Braves yesterday. After three straight wins, Miami enters having lost two straight, but with its ace on the mound, it has to be feeling confident this afternoon. The Braves hand the ball to Max Fried (5-5, 4.66 ERA), who comes in off a loss to the lowly Pirates last Monday, allowing six runs off seven hits over five innings. Fried had an unrealistic 2.63 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over his previous our starts, before then finally coming back down to Earth in that last outing. Unfortunately for Fried as well, things aren't going to get any easier here, as he's a poor 1-2 with a ballooned 6.65 ERA on the road this season. Trevor Rogers (7-5, 2.22 ERA), posted eight strikeouts and gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers on Monday. Over 97.1 innings of work he now has an impressive 118/32 K/W. I think further regression is in the cards for Fried, while all signs point to Miami bouncing back from yesterday's shutout with the superior starter on the mound. Great value on the revenge-minded home side. The play is Miami. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-09-21 | Rockies +1.5 v. Padres | 2-4 | Loss | -101 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
My 9* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Rockies on the RUN-LINE. I had a play on Colorado in its outright win in Arizona last night, and while I do think it can carry that momentum over here and take advantage of a less than 100% in form Blake Snell, in the end my strongest play on this game will be to take the Rockies on the runline option. The Padres haven't been playing particularly well of late, as they've dropped six of their last ten. Off a wild 9-8 win at home last night over Washington though, I think this sets up as a letdown, as SD has in fact traded wins/losses now over its last six games. Kyle Freeland (1-2, 5.50 ERA) hasn't had the greatest season obviously for the Rockies, but there's also no question that he enters playing his best baseball of the season, as he's posted a 0.58 ERA, 17 strikeouts and allowed no runs over his last two starts. Snell (3-3, 4.99) returned from the COVID 19 injured list and threw four scoreless against the Phillies, but he's expected to see limited time tonight as well, as he still tries to recover from the sickness. The bottom line is, I don't trust this Padres bullpen anymore. As I stated off the top, I think this is a prime letdown spot again for San Diego. Freeland has been unbelievable for the Rockies of late and I expect him to continue his progression. The play is Colorado on the runline. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-09-21 | Angels v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* AL WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Angels/Mariners. The Angels took two of three from Boston this week at home. All three contests went under the number. Seattle lost two of three to New York in its lastest home series. Two of the three games in that series went over the number, but off the Mariners lower-scoring 4-1 victory in Thursday's series finale, I expect a much higher-scoring affair on Friday. LA hands the ball to Alex Cobb (6-3, 4.60 ERA), who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over the lowly Orioles on Saturday. Cobb though has been inconsistent of late if we dig a little deeper, as he's given up just one earned run or less in three of his past six starts, while allowing a total of 16 earned runs over the other three. He's also been money in the bank at home by going 4-1 with a 2.49 ERA, compared to a terrible 2-2 with a ballooned 7.84 ERA on the road. Seattle goes with Marco Gonzalez (1-5, 5.82), who was shelled for seven runs off seven hits over three innings in a loss to Texas on Saturday. Gonzalez has been consistently inconsistent all season. Note, he's 0-2 with a 5.19 ERA at home. On a warm Friday night in the Pacific Northwest, look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game gets into the latter frames. This number is low, the play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-09-21 | Reds -104 v. Brewers | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds have been playing well of late, but they'll be out to finish the first half strong and to bounce back after losing two of their last three, including yesterday's series opener here 5-3. The Brewers have won seven of their last ten, including two in a row, but I think the visiting side has the starting pitching advantage and that ultimately swings the odds in the visitors favor in my opinion. Cincinnati hands the ball to Wade Miley (6-4, 3.06 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Sunday. Over 88.1 innings of work Miley has a sharp 72/23 K/W, a 1.15 WHIP and note he's been great on the road with a current 3.00 ERA away from friendly confines. Eric Lauer (3-3, 4.11) is coming off a win over the lowly Pirates on Saturday, giving up one run over six innings. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Lauer of late though, who still owns a 5.40 ERA over six June starts. The Reds are also 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a two runs or greater road loss to an opponent. That's all I need to know. I like Miley here. I like the Reds in this bounce-back revenge spot. Great value on Cincinnati on Friday night. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-09-21 | A's -130 v. Rangers | 2-3 | Loss | -130 | 27 h 49 m | Show | |
The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Oakland A's. Oakland hasn't been playing well lately, so it won't be taking anything for granted here. The A's have lost six of their last ten, but the come in off a much-needed 2-1 win at Houston in last night's three-game series finale and I think they'll carry that momentum over here in this favorable starting pitching matchup. The Rangers were playing better, but that stretch is now in the rear-view mirror again, as Texas has lost six of its last ten, including a 5-3 defeat here to the lowly Tigers two nights ago. The A's see Cole Irvin (6-7, 3.56 ERA) toe the slab, and he'll be out to return to the winners circle after receiving a no-decision against the Red Sox last time out, allowing four runs over seven innings. The rookie continues to impress, especially on the road where he's 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA. Jordan Lyles (4-5, 4.98) counters for the Rangers, and he's off a win over the Mariners on Saturday, allowing two runs over six innings. Lyles has been decent of late, but I'll caution and expect a letdown here, as he owns a poor 5.14 ERA at home, despite a 2-1 record. The Rangers are 21-23 at home. The A's are 23-17 on the road. After a shaky stretch, look for Oakland to build off yesterday's win and to keep the foot on the gas until the All Star break. The play is Oakland. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-09-21 | White Sox -136 v. Orioles | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Chicago White Sox. Dallas Keuchel hasn't been perfect this year, but I still think he'll get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. The White Sox have won seven their last ten, including two in a row at Minnesota most recently, while Baltimore enters this series having lost six of ten, including a 10-2 setback here two nights ago to the Blue Jays. Keuchel (6-3, 4.48 ERA) comes in off an uncharacteristically poor start against the Tigers, allowing seven runs over four innings. With a chance to close out the first half of the season strong, I think that Keuchel gets back on track here in his final outing before the All Star game and in this favorable matchup. The home side counters with Jorge Lopez (2-11, 6.02) who gave up four runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to the Angels on Saturday. He's walked four batters in each of his last two starts and he's 1-4 with a 5.59 ERA at home. Give me Keuchel to go deep and for the White Sox to strike first in this series. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-08-21 | Bucks +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 2 SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Bucks. I had a play on Milwaukee in Game 1 and while that play came up short, I think the Bucks will make the necessary adjustments to be much more competitive in Game 2. Phoenix had significant advantages in Game 1, which it won't have here. It had a few days of rest between series to focus and regroup. The Bucks finished their series with the Hawks and almost immediately got on a plane to Phoenix. Giannis Antetokounmpo was also a huge question mark going into Game 1. The Bucks had to have two games plans, with or without their super star in the line-up. He played, he was decent and his injury is now behind him. Now Milwaukee can properly focus with its full line-up and I say that's a huge difference here in Game 3. The Suns haven't been perfect during the playoffs, with big lapses in form from game-to-game throughout the Clippers series. This Bucks team is better than Los Angeles in my opinion. Especially with Antetokounmpo now back to full health. I'm not trying to take away how great Chris Paul, Devin Booker and De'Andre Ayton are and have been leading up to this moment, but there's no way the Suns are sweeping this series. While I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last. I'm grabbing the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-08-21 | Tigers v. Twins -121 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Twins. Minnesota won't be lacking for motivation here as it's lost seven of its last ten, including two straight. I think the home side finds a way to get the job done in the opener of this series against the Tigers, who come to town having won four of their last five, including a 5-3 road victory in Texas just yesterday afternoon. The visitors go with Tarik Skubal (5-7, 4.35 ERA), who earned a win over the White Sox last week, despite allowing five runs over five innings. Skubal has been decent in his rookie year, but while he's 2-4 with a 3.75 ERA at home, he's just 3-3 with a 5.67 ERA on the road. JA Happ (4-4, 6.09) won't be lacking for motivation either. Happ gave up six runs to the Royals on Friday over just four innings. Happ has the track record and pedigree to return to form and note that he still owns a respectable 29/10 K/W over his last 34 innings of work. He's also 1-3 with an 8.40 ERA on the road, compared to 3-1 with a 4.37 ERA at home. I like Happ over Skubal at home and considering the circumstances that each side finds itself coming into this one, Minnesota is for sure the correct call in my opinion. Lay the price, the play is the Twins. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-08-21 | Rockies +128 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-3 | Win | 128 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* GETAWAY GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Rockies. Colorado has dropped the first two games of this series, but I expect it to finally bounce back here in the get-a-way game. The Rockies came into this series having won six of their previous seven, but I think they'll indeed get the job done here with Chi Chi Gonzalez (2-5, 5.52 ERA) on the hill, who comes in off a no-decision agains the Cardinals despite allowing just two runs off seven hits over seven innings. Gonzalez has actually been better at home than on the road, but the bottom line is his recent form is promising and I think he'll build off that performance here against this "on again, off again" Diamondbacks offense. The home side counters with the volatile Jake Faria (0-0, 5.25), who was fortunate to earn a no-decision last time out against the Giants, allowing four runs over four innings. Arizona has now lost all five games in which Faria has made an appearance and I expect that string of futility to continue here as well (he's 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA at home as well.) I think Gonzalez and the Rockies bounce-back and take full advantage of this favorable spot. Colorado should in fact be the favorite here, great line value. The play is the Rockies. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-07-21 | Phillies -137 v. Cubs | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -137 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Phillies. I had a play on Philadelphia yesterday and I think it'll find a way to get the job done here again as well against the hapless Cubs, who have now dropped 11 in a row. No one likes going on extended losing streaks, and clearly the Cubs are desperate to "bounce back" here and get off the schneid, but the Phillies can't afford to take the foot off the gas either after a choppy and less than impressive first half. MLB is an interesting sport, as every single game has to be looked at individually, because of the starting pitchers. And in my opinion, Zack Wheeler is the correct call today. Wheeler (6-4, 2.05 ERA) is the best kept secret in the National League, he most recently went 7.2 scoreless against the Padres on Friday. He struck out nine. Over his last two games he's posted an impressive 17/2 K/W. Wheeler is 3-2 with a 2.40 ERA on the road. His counterpart today is Alec Mills (3-2, 4.85), who gave up two runs over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate loss to the Reds on Friday. Mills has only 42 innnings under his belt this season, posting a 35/15 K/W in the process. The Cubs losing streak is going to end. Just not today. This is a great price on arguably the hottest pitcher in the league over the first half. I'm banking on Wheeler continuing his recent dominance. Lay the short price, the play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-07-21 | Reds -138 v. Royals | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 52 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Reds. The Royals scored two in the bottom of the eighth and four in the bottom of the ninth yesterday to take a 7-6 victory, snapping a two-game slide. The Reds had won five in a row coming into that game, but I think they can easily bounce back here in this favorable spot. The visitors hand the ball to Sonny Gray (1-4, 3.27 ERA), who was limited to 86 pitches on his return from a groin injury. He threw 53 for strikes over five innings, allowing a single run and posting eight strikeouts. Despite his win/loss record, Gray has once again been solid this season, as evidenced by his 73/21 K/W over 55 innings of work. The home side counters with Brady Singer (3-6, 4.74) who earned a no-decision vs. the Twins on Friday after allowing three runs over three innings. Singer has a decent 83/35 K/W over 79.2 innings, but I think he's overmatched here against the "fresh" and in form Gray. Cincinnati is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss in which it allowed seven or more runs in as well. I think Gray is the correct call here. Good price, the play is Cincinnati. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-07-21 | Tigers v. Rangers -145 | 5-3 | Loss | -145 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Rangers. Texas pulled away for a 10-5 victory over the Tigers yesterday and I believe it'll find a way to "do it again" on Wednesday afternoon as well. Detroit hands the ball to Casey Mize (5-5, 3.55 ERA), who has been a consistent bright spot for the Tigers all season, but who I think will be overmatched in this difficult road venue. The Detroit rookie gave up two runs over three innings in a loss to the White Sox on Friday. As I said, Mize has been great, he has a decent 75/27 K/W over 91.1 innnings. But the Rangers Kyle Gibson (6-0, 1.98) is in the midst of a career best campaign right now. Gibson most recently allowed one run and struck out seven over six innings in a no-decision to Seattle on Friday. Gibson has been unstoppable at home this year as well, going 5-0 with a minuscule 1.10 ERA. I'll be the first to admit, clearly, at some point, Gibson is due for a major letdown. That letdown is for sure on the horizon, but this is an extremely favorable matchup and it's one which I expect the veteran to make the most of. I believe that Texas should in fact be a much larger favorite considering the talent discrepancy between these starting pitchers. Lay it, the play is the Rangers. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-06-21 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -115 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 3 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Diamondbacks. Both Jon Gray of the Rockies and Merril Kelly of the Diamondbacks have been decent of late. But Kelly's been better and I think he has a major advantage here on home soil. Gray (5-6, 3.89 ERA) gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the lowly Pirates in his last outing. He also gave up four walks. Gray's struggled on the road though, going 0-4 with a ballooned 5.43 ERA away from friendly confines. Kelly (5-7, 4.67 ERA) beat San Francisco on Thursday, allowing three runs with seven strikeouts over seven innings. Kelly has won three straight starts, giving up only four runs spanning his last 20 innings of work (to go along with 17 strikeouts.) Note that he's also been at his best at home, going 3-2 with a 3.66 ERA. At this price and considering his opponents road struggles, Kelly is the correct call here in my opinion. Lay it, the play is Arizona. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-06-21 | Red Sox v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* 37-CLUB PLAY TOTAL is on the under Red Sox/Angels. Yesterday's game snuck under the total of 10 in Boston's 5-4 series opening victory. I think we'll have much more of a duel here on our hands on Tuesday though, as I once again expect this total to fall under the number once it's all said and done. The Red Sox hand the ball to Nathan Eovaldi (9-4, 3.41 ERA) who allowed five hits and no walks while striking out six over seven innings in a win over the Royals on Thursday. Eovaldi has 90 strikeouts over 97.2 frames of work and he's been at his best on the road, going 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA so far. The Angels look to rebound from last night's loss by handing the ball to Shoei Ohtani (3-1, 3.60), who is coming off an uncharacteristically poor start by allowing seven runs to the Yankees, lucky to escape with a no-decision. Starts like that have been few and far between for Ohtani though, and I expect the Japanese hurler to return to form here in his final start before the Mid-Summer Classic. These are two potent line-ups, but this particular contest is going to be dominated by these two capable starters in my opinion. One last factor is the vastly improved Boston bullpen, anchored by closer Matt Barnes. I say we have a classic "duel" on our hands here on the West Coast on Tuesday night. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-06-21 | Bucks +6 v. Suns | Top | 105-118 | Loss | -106 | 30 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Milwaukee Bucks. I think there's value to be had here on the undermanned and underdog Milwaukee Bucks. The Suns had a hell of a time putting away Paul George and the Clippers, who had to play without star Kawhi Leonard, arguably a top 3 player on the planet. Giannis Antetokounmpo is out. Clearly, that's a huge issue for the Bucks. But I say it's more of an issue over the long-term. Milwaukee will throw its best possible shot here in an attempt to pull off an upset. The Bucks are deep and aren't going to be afraid of Devin Booker whatsoever. Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez have the talent and experience here to pull off an outright upset. That's easier said than done though obviously. The Suns are 33-11 at home. Milwaukee is 25-20 on the road. These teams played twice in the regular season. The Suns won both. Both by a single point. It's double-revenge time here for Milwaukee. With Giannis in the line-up, this line drops to right around +2.5 for the Bucks likely. The Bucks are sitting pretty heading into Game 2 if they can somehow pull off the outright here, as Antetokounmpo would be expected to then return. I say Milwaukee fights tooth and nail and at the very least, takes this one right down to the wire. Grab the points, the play is the Bucks. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-06-21 | Tigers v. Rangers -162 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show | |
The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Texas Rangers. Detroit's won four of its last five and three in a row. I say the Tigers finally stumble here. The Rangers are looking to get back on track here, as they've lost three of four, including two in a row. The visitors see Jose Urena (2-8, 6.22 ERA) toe the slab. Urena most recently was shelled for four runs over 3.1 innings in a no-decision in Game 1 of a double-header vs. Cleveland on Wednesday. He gave up four solo home runs in the setback and he's now conceded 11 on the season. He's actually been better on the road than at home, but he's still overmatched here facing Dane Dunning (3-6, 4.38), who enters off consecutive decent outings, most recently going four scoreless against Oakland on Thursday. Over 74 innings of work Dunning has a sharp 79/27 K/W and I believe he'll be the difference-maker for the Rangers this evening. Considering the talent discrepancy of these starting pitchers, I think this line should/could in fact be much larger. I'm laying the price and expecting a decisive outcome. The play is Texas. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-06-21 | Phillies +122 v. Cubs | 15-10 | Win | 122 | 28 h 34 m | Show | |
The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies smashed the Cubs 13-3 here yesterday and I expect a similar style beatdown tonight as well. The visitors see ace Aaron Nola (5-5, 4.44 ERA) take the mound tonight and he'll be out to rebound after allowing seven runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Marlins on Wednesday. The silver-lining was that he'd strike out 11. Over 95.1 innings of work, Nola owns a great 118/22 K/W and that includes a 23/1 mark over his last two starts. I say Nola gets right back on track after that embarrassing effort last time out. The Cubs counter with the volatile Jake Arrieta (5-8, 5.57), who was shelled for six runs off four hits over just 1.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Brewers on Wednesday. He's been better at home than on the road, but Arrieta is still just 3-4 with a ballooned 6.98 ERA in all "night" games this season. I'm banking on the big bats of the Phillies to continue the "hit parade" on Tuesday night and I expect Nola to settle back down and to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the short price, the play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-05-21 | Tigers v. Rangers -150 | 7-3 | Loss | -150 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
My 9* WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER is on the Rangers. I played against Texas last night in Seattle's 4-1 win, but now that the Rangers have returned home, I love their chances to get back on track in what I deem to be a very favorable matchup. The Tigers have been playing better of late, but off a 6-5 win over the White Sox at home and a series victory over their rival, a letdown is imminent on the road in my opinion, a place where they're just 17-24 so far. Texas is 13-30 on the road, and 20-21 at home. The Tigers hand the ball to Wily Peralta (1-1, 3.21 ERA), who has 14 innings under his belt so far this season. The book is out on the veteran, as the sample size is still too small. I say Peralta struggles in a starters role on the road though against this hungry Rangers home side. Texas goes with Kolby Allard (2-4, 3.46), who has a great 1.08 WHIP and 49/11 K/W over 52 innings of work this year. He's off a loss to the A's despite allowing three runs and striking out five over six innings. Allard has to be feeling confident he can bounce back here, as he sports a very respectable 3.19 ERA at home this season. I think this line could/should in fact be larger, and that's why the value swings to the Rangers in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-05-21 | Brewers v. Mets +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Mets on the runline. Brandon Woodruff has been unbelievable this year for the Brewers, but regression is imminent in my opinion. I think this is a good spot wager. The Brewers just had their nine-game win streak snapped last time out in a 2-0 setback at Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon, and now that the wind is out of their sails, I expect New York to take advantage. As I say, Woodruff (7-3, 1.87 ERA) has been great. It's basically impossible to say anything negative about him, so I won't bother trying. This one simply comes down to the fact that I think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time today. So Tyler Megill (0-0, 4.82) will look to match pace today for the home side. He most recently allowed three runs and struck out eight over five innings in a no-decison to the Braves. The rookie won't be lacking for motivation, he now owns a respectable 12/4 K/W over 9.1 innings of work. Milwaukee is likely going to be a popular wager here for the public, and the bookmakers know it. This price is elevated and it swings the value to the under-valued underdog in my opinion. But here, I'm going to grab the Mets on the runline at this really great price. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-05-21 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -101 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER White Sox/Twins. The White Sox have seen the total go over the numbe rin seven straight and in eight of their last ten, but everything points to more of a duel here in the opener of this series. Chicago turns to Dylan Cease (7-3, 3.75 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits while striking out seven over six innings vs. these very Twins last Wednesday. It was his second straight win and his fourth in his last five starts. The White Sox blasted out six home runs in that game and plated 13 overall. Suffice it to say, I don't expect that to happen again today. The home side counters with Bailey Ober (0-1, 5.84), who is out for redepemtion here, as he threw opposite Cease last week. It was his first career loss. The rookie has struggled in some areas (allowing seven home runs already), but been exceptional in others (26/6 K/W). One thing to note here is that the Twins have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 as a home dog in the +101 to +115 range. I think Ober will bounce back here in his second try against the White Sox and there's no reason not to believe that Cease can't carry his momentum over here. This number is high in my opinion, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-04-21 | Giants -147 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* NL WEST GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Giants. The Giants won here 6-5 last night and I think they'll find a way to get the job done here as well. San Franisco hands the ball to Anthony DeSclafani (8-3, 2.91 ERA), who enters off a loss despite allowing three runs with six strikeouts, his first setback in over a month. DeSclafani though has exceeded expectations to this point in San Francisco, as he's allowed three runs or less in six straight starts. Note as well that he's 4-2 with a tiny 2.16 ERA on the road this season. The home side will see Caleb Smith (2-4, 3.08) take the hill, he most recently is coming off a loss to the Cardinals on Tuesday, allowing two runs over five innings. Smith has been decent overall, but he's struggled with command of late, posting a 4.9 K/9 over his last three starts. The Diamondbacks have been poor in this spot for bettors as well, going just 19-43 this season vs. right-handed starters, while also going only 12-33 this year vs. clubs with winning records. The Giants on the other hand are 27-15 this year vs. teams with losing records. I like DeSclafani to coninue his hot hurling on the road and all things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." The play is San Francisco. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-04-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -128 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH is on the Mariners. Seattle had won three in a row before yestreday's 7-3 setback to the Rangers. With a chance for a series victory and with the superior starting pitcher on the hill for them in my opinion, I like the Mariners to bounce-back on Sunday. The Rangers hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (2-7, 5.17 ERA), who gave up two runs over seven innings in a win over Oakland on Tuesday. He's allowed 19 home runs this year, which ranks second in the majors. Foltynewicz has also been terrible on the road this year, going just 1-3 with a ballooned 6.37 ERA thus far. The home side goes with Chris Flexen (6-3, 3.97), who posted a no-decision in his last outing, allowing three runs off seven hits over five innings vs. the Blue Jays on Tuesday. The rookie has been great this year for Seattle, especially at home where he's 4-2 with a 2.06 ERA. Look for Flexen to keep flexin' and for the Mariners to bounce-back from yesterday's defeat. The play is Seattle. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-04-21 | Twins -127 v. Royals | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Minnesota Twins. The Twins come in desperate to break a five-game slide. They've lost the first two games of this series, but I believe they'll finally get off the schneid here with a victory. The vistors go with Kenta Maeda (3-3, 5.56 ERA), who comes in off a loss to the White Sox on Tuesday, allowing seven runs over 4.2 innings. Maeda has been better at home than on the road this season, but I still trust him over his counterpart Brad Keller this afternoon. Keller (6-8, 6.67), gave up six runs off ten hits over five innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Red Sox on Tuesday. Keller owns the highest ERA and WHIP (1.88) among qualified pitchers and considering how hungry Minnesota is here today, I believe those struggles continue for him. The Twins are also 7-2 in their last nine after a five games or longer losing streak. All things considered, a great price here on Minnesota. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-04-21 | White Sox -1.5 v. Tigers | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 5 m | Show | |
The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the White Sox on the run line. Chicago won the opener of this three-game series by a score of 8-2, and then the Tigers responded with an 11-5 victory yesterday. I had a play on the Tigers on the runline in that one, but in the end we didn't even need the extra run-and-half associated with that type of wager. Today though, I'm going the other way. I think that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound today between these starting pitchers, justifies laying the 1.5 runs for near "pick em" price. Lucas Giolito (6-5, 3.84 ERA), earned a win over the Twins on Tuesday, allowing three runs off six hits over six innings. It was his fourth straight quality start and he now owns a respectable 1.10 WHIP and huge 111/30 K/W over 93.2 innings of work. He'll be opposed by confirmed "gas can" Matt Manning (1-2, 8.16), who was shelled for nine runs off nine hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to Cleveland on Monday. Over 14.1 big league innings he has just six strikeouts. Clearly the sample size is still too small to draw any firm conclusions about Manning, but the bottom line here is I believe he's in well over his head here facing the "in form" Giolito. And so that's my read on this one. Chicago is set to bounce back here, not only winning, but winning in blowout fashion. The play is on Gioltio and the White Sox on the runline. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-04-21 | Padres v. Phillies +116 | 11-1 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies won 4-2 yesterday and I think the offer great value in the small upset role here on Sunday as well. The Padres send Blake Snell (3-3, 5.29 ERA) to the hill. Snell was placed on the COVID IL out of a precautionary measure last week, but he never tested postitive. Snell has been "hit or miss" this year, that's for sure. He's been great at home (3-0, 1.45 ERA), but a disaster on the road (0-3, 10.53). The home side sends veteran Vince Velasquez (3-2, 4.22) to counter, and he's off a strong start agaisnt the Mariners, holding them scoreless over seven innings. Velasquez has been inconsistent as well this year, but he's consistently been at his best at home, coming in with a solid 2-0, 3.99 ERA record here so far. Philadelphia has its foot on the gas here at home before the All Star break and with a chance at a rare series sweep, I look for it to find a way to deliver on Sunday. The play is San Diego. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-03-21 | Bucks +2.5 v. Hawks | Top | 118-107 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 6 SHOWDOWN is on the Bucks. Whether Trae Young plays here or not, I like the Bucks to dig deep and find a way to end this series here and now. They'll be doing that without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who hyper-extended his knee. But Milwaukee was able to win Game 5 handily without its super star as well. The Hawks managed a Game 4 victory at home without Trae Young, but his absesnce was definitely felt in Game 5. Young is listed as a "GAME TIME DECISION" for Game 6. Clearly, if Young does play, he's not going to be at 100% health. Khris Middleton is averaging 22.7 points and 4.7 assists in the playoffs, and he and Jrue Holiday, who is the third double-digit scorer, definitely stepped up and filled the void last time out. Brook Lopez was also key. I think this group has what it takes to end this series, whether Young plays or not. Bobby Portis was another player who stepped up big for Milwaukee, and with group contributions like that, I can't see Atlanta keeping pace down the stretch. While clearly the outright win is very possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. The play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-03-21 | Red Sox v. A's -115 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Oakland Atheltics. The Red Sox managed a 3-2 win here yesterday, but I like the A's to bounce-back and find a way to deliver in this revenge spot on Saturday. The visitors go with the volatile Garrett Richards (4-5, 4.96 ERA), who was rocked for five runs off 11 hits over just 5.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Royals on Monday. Richards got out to a decent start to the season, but he's been trending in the other direction over the last month, as he's now been crushed for 20 runs over his last 16.2 innings of work. Cole Irvin (6-7, 3.64) has been better than anyone could have expected in his first year for the A's. I think he'll carry his recent momentum over here, as he most recently earned a strong win over a dangerous Giants' team in interleague action last Sunday, going eight scoreless and striking out eight. Over five June starts Irvin owns a sharp 2.64 ERA and I don't see any reason why he can't continue his recent form of elite play at home. The A's are also 7-3 in their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to two or less runs in. I'm banking on this 70% trend improving after tonight. Great value on a red hot hurler and the revenge-minded home side. The play is the A's. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-03-21 | Cubs v. Reds -130 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Cincinnati Reds. Cincinnati beat the Cubs 2-1 yesterday and I believe it'll find a way to deliver on Saturday afternoon as well. Tyler Mahle has been better on the road than at home for the Reds, but I still trust him over the Cubs' volatile starter today in Adbert Alzolay. Mahle (7-3, 3.74 ERA), gave up four runs and struck out seven over six innings in a loss to the Braves in his last outing. Over 84.1 innings of work Mahle now owns a sharp 105/27 K/W. Alzolay (4-7, 4.55) most recently got rocked for six runs off five hits over just three innings in a loss to the Dodgers. It was probably his worst start of the season. Overall he's just 1-5 with a 5.38 ERA on the road. These teams are trending in opposite directions. The Cubs have lost seven in a row, while the Reds have won six of ten, including two straight. With what I believe to be the vastly superior starting pitcher on the hill today for them, I expect the Reds to take advantage. Lay the price, the play is Cincinnati. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-03-21 | Marlins v. Braves -150 | 3-2 | Loss | -150 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
The third pick of my STP (a 9*) is on the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta won 1-0 yesterday and I think it'll find a way to secure a victory here as well. The Marlins hand the ball to Sandy Alcantara (4-7, 3.12), who gave up five earned runs over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Nationals in his last outing. He's just 3-4 with a 3.75 ERA on the road. The home side counters with rookie phenom Kyle Muller (1-1, 2.70), who comes in off a win over the Reds on Sunday, holding them to zero runs over five innings to go along with nine strikeouts. Over ten innings the 6 foot 7 rookie owns a 13/4 K/W. The Braves can't afford to take the foot off the gas just before the All Star break. They've won three in a row and I say they take advantage of this favorable spot. Lay the price, the play is Atlanta. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-03-21 | White Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show | |
The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the Tigers on the runline. I like the Tigers to bounce back here after yesterday's 8-2 defeat to the White Sox. That said, in a game which could very well be decided late or in extra innings, my best play on this one will be to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Dallas Keuchel (6-2, 3.96 ERA) gave up two runs off six hits in a no-decision to the Mariners in Game 1 of last Sunday's double-header. He'll be opposed by Tarik Skubal (4-7, 4.06) who gave up one run and struck out nine over seven innings in an unfortate no-decision vs. the Astros last weekend. Over 77.2 innings he now owns a sharp 94/36 K/W. And note, despite a 1-4 record in Detroit, he owns a very respectable 3.23 ERA there. Finally note that the Tigers are 6-2 in their last eight in trying to revenge a five runs or greater loss to an opponent. For all the reasons I've listed above, lay the price on the Tigers on the runline option in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-02-21 | Rangers -105 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* AL WEST GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Rangers. Texas was the laughing-stock of the league over the first month and a half, but it's playing it best ball of the season right now. I think that trend continues here. The Rangers have won five of their last six, including yesterday's contest at the A's by a score of 8-3. And now they send their ace to the mound in Kyle Gibson (6-0, 2.00 ERA), who earned a win over the Royals in his last outing, going seven scorless and striking out ten. Gibson has now allowed two or fewer runs in his last eight starts, posting a 1.68 ERA in that span. He's also 1-0 with a 3.14 ERA on the road and 4-0 with a 1.79 ERA in all "night" games. The Mariners also got off to a terrible start, and they've also been playing much better of late, entering having won seven of their last ten, including two in a row. They counter with Logan Gilbert (2-2, 4.25), who's last start was suspended in the third inning vs. the White Sox due to a rain-out. Gilbert has exceeded expectations for the Mariners this year, but note that the rookie is a poor 0-2 with a ballooned 6.46 ERA at home. At this price, I love Gibson and the red hot Rangers. The play is Texas. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-02-21 | Red Sox v. A's OVER 8.5 | 3-2 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 57 m | Show | |
My 9* AL SUPER TOTAL is on the over Red Sox/Athletics. Both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs in their last outings. Boston destroyed Kansas City 15-1, while the A's were busy losing 8-3 at home to the Rangers. Both of those contests went over the number, and I expect the opener of this series to follow suit. The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (6-4, 5.83 ERA), who is coming off a good win over the Yanks Sunday, allowing two runs over six innings. Rodriguez though has struggled on the road this season, going just 3-3 with a ballooned 6.24 ERA. The Athletics go with Frankie Montas (7-7, 4.72), who comes in off a no-decision to the Giants on Saturday. Previous to that he allowed eight runs in a loss. As I said, Montas has struggled with consistency from game-to-game this year and note that he's just 4-5 with a 4.67 ERA at home. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. I think these two suspect starters get chased early. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-02-21 | Lightning v. Canadiens +120 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 3 GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Canadiens. I have played on Montreal over the first two games on the puckline and come up short. I can't lay the price on the Habs on the puckline in Game 3, but I don't think we're going to need that extra goal and a half anyways. With a line like this, the oddsmakers agree that this is going to be an evenly matched game. But Montreal does have the advantage, in that this is the first time that Tampa has travelled out of the country to play this season. The subtle differences in dealing with travel and all the rest of it is going to throw a proverbial "monkey-wrench" into Tampa's series sweep hopes in my opinion. The Lightning have been exceptional defensively over the first two games, but Tampa has definitely shown inconsistencies throughout these playoffs. Clearly, Montreal has to get something going offensively, or this series is going to be over. The Habs though are 7-1 in their last eight in trying to revenge two losses against an opponent. The Canadiens won't be panicking here, as they had to come from behind to knock off the Leafs in the first round after dropping to 1-3 in that series. Montreal is also 10-2 in its last 12 when playing on one days rest and 4-1 in its last five after scoring two or less goals in its previous game. I say this series gets a lot more interseting after tonight. The stage is set for a letdown here for Tampa, and nice payout for Montreal as a straight-up Game 3 winner. The play is the Canadiens. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-02-21 | Padres v. Phillies -120 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
My 9* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Phillies. The Philles' game got postponed yesterday. They most recently lost 11-6 to Miami. The Padres lost 5-4 at the Reds yesterday, breaking a three-game win streak. I think the better rested home side is the correct call in the opener of this one though. Chris Paddack (4-5, 4.64 ERA) gave up five runs off eight hits over 2.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the D-Backs last Friday. Paddack has struggled with consistency from gaem-to-game and I believe that pattern continues here in this difficult road venue. The home side counters with the steady Zach Wheeler (6-4, 2.20) who went seven shutout innings in a win over the Mets on Sunday. To go along with his great ERA, Wheeler also sports a tiny 0.97 WHIP and a massive 130/25 K/W over 106.1 innings. And note, he's been particularly tough at home this year, going 3-2 with a 2.06 ERA in Philadelphia. Wheeler is the most "under the radar" starting pitcher in the National League and I think we're getting fantastic value on him here. The play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-02-21 | Spain v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* EURO-CUP QUARTER-FINAL TOTAL OF YEAR is on the OVER Switzerland/Spain. Switzerland is off a wild, high-scoring shootout win over the French in the round of 16. Spain beat Croatia 5-3 to advance. Switzerland though has to be feeling confident after coming back from a 3-1 deficit to France to send it into extra time, and then eventually win on penalty kicks. A win for Switzerland today would see it go farther than in any other major tournament, having reached the quarterfinals of the World Cup in 1934, 1938 and 1954. Spain had a 3-1 lead going into the 77th minute with Croatia before almost throwing its lead away. Spain will be wary here to mess around, as it's actually not had the best Tournament to this point, drawing its first two fixtures. It then put five goals past Slovakia in its final group match, and just had five in their last one as well. There's no reason to believe that Spain won't continue to find the back of the net here either. You may want to consider the "BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE" prop as well. But here I'm expecting a faster-paced affair, one which flies over this number in regulation. And that's the play, the over in regulation between Spain and Switzerland. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-01-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -3 | Top | 112-123 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Bucks. The Hawks managed a win at home without Trae Young in the lineup in Game 4, but I think the Bucks will bounce-back and take advantage of familiar surroundings on Thursday night. Young will almost assuredly being play tonight, but even if he does suit up, one has to wonder about his health/form? Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.2 PPG for Milwaukee, but he's out in this one most likely because of a knee injury he suffered last time out. Expect Khris Middleton to pick up the slack here. Much like Atlanta winning without its star in Game 4, I believe Milwaukee can rally here and do the same here on its own floor. Note that Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 90 points or less in. These are two tired and banged up teams. I say though that it's Atlanta which is primed for a letdown here after its upset win in Game 4. The Bucks are 5-1 ATS in their last six when playing on one days rest as well. With its leader sidelined with injury, look for the home side to dig deep and to post a solid SU/ATS victory on Thursday night. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-01-21 | Mets v. Braves +151 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 151 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* NL DOG OF THE MONTH is on the Braves. Do I think that Atlanta can match its 20-2 win here yesterday over the Mets? I don't at all. But I do think the Braves are going to find a way to build off yesterday's victory with another one here. The Mets send ace Jacob deGrom (7-2, 0.69 ERA), who comes in off a no-decision to the Phillies in his last outing, allowing two runs over six innings. Clearly, deGrom is having a great year. He's been one of MLB's best over the last five years and it's basically impossible to say anything negative about him. So I'm not going to bother to try to. I simply feel he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. I don't trust the Mets' bullpen on the road either and the bottom line is, I think that Braves' starter Ian Anderson can match deGrom inning for inning. Anderson (5-4, 3.42) will be hungry to return to the winners circle here after allowing three runs and striking out nine in an unfortunate loss to the Reds on Saturday. Over 81.2 innings of work Anderson owns a great 88/29 K/W. Andreson faced the Mets two weeks ago and he conceded no runs over five innings in what turned out to be a 1-0 victory. As I stated up top, I don't trust the Mets as a big road favorite here, despite deGrom getting the start. This one has "u-p-s-e-t" written all over it. The play is Atlanta. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
07-01-21 | Twins v. White Sox -135 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH is on the White Sox. I had a play on the White Sox last night and they won big. I think they're going to roll again here on Sunday in the getaway game. The Twins go with Jose Berrios (7-2, 3.41 ERA) who gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the the Rangers on Friday. Berrios has been a consistent bright spot for this struggling Twins' rotation this season, but I think he's just in the wrong place at the wrong time today. The home side counters with Carlos Rodon (6-3, 2.06) who will be eager to get back on track after a loss to the Mariners in his last outing, allowing three runs with eight strikeouts over five innings. Over 78.2 innings of work this season Rodon now owns a tiny 0.90 WHIP and sharp 113/24 K/W over 78.2 innings of work. Chicago is also 7-3 in its last ten after scoring ten or more runs in a home victory in its last outing. I like the home side to keep the foot on the gas this afternoon. The price is right here, the play is the White Sox. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-30-21 | Twins v. White Sox -123 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* MLB Division Game of the Year (AL Central) is on the White Sox. The Twins won the AL Central last season for the second straight season, making it three playoff appearances for Minnesota in the previous four seasons. Meanwhile, the White Sox went 35-25 and grabbed a postseason spot in 2020's expanded playoff field, ending an 11-year postseason drought for Chicago. Entering 2021, Chicago, Cleveland and Minnesota (all made the playoffs in 2020) were expected to contend for the division title or for one of the AL's two wild card spots. That's been the case for the first-place White Sox (46-32) and the second-place Indians (42-33) but the Twins have seen their season "get away from them," as they sit 33-44, 12 1/2 games back of Chicago and 10 back of Cleveland. Dylan Cease is in his third season, going 9-11 with a 5.00 ERA over 26 starts in 2019 and 2020. He's made 15 starts in 2021 but note that the White Sox are 9-3 in his last 12. What's more notable is his home and away dichotomy. Cease owns a 6.08 ERA in eight road starts (team is 3-5) but a 1.63 ERA and .196 BAA in seven home starts, with Chicago going 6-1. Cease and the White Sox are the play. | |||||||
06-30-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 2 STANLEY CUP FINALS TOP-PLAY is on the Canadiens. Montreal was down 1-3 to Toronto in the first round, before then winning three straight. The Canadiens then took care of the Winnipeg Jets in four straight, before then needing six games to get past the Golden Knights. In every series, the Canadiens have been the underdog and they're obviously once again a big underdog in this game and in this series. Especially after losing 5-1 in Game 1. I think at this price range, that we're getting great value by getting the extra goal and a half in Game 2. I'll caution in over-reacting to one loss by Montreal, as it's been fantastic at making adjustments from game to game throughout these playoffs. I'm not trying to diminish how great the Lightning really are, and their road back to a second Stanley Cup hasn't been any easier than Montreal's. But at the same time, the Lightning sure haven't been perfect in this playoffs. They barely got by the Islanders in seven games and they've been susceptible to letdowns. I think that's going to be the case here. The outright upset is definitely possible. I'm not counting out Carey Price and this under-the-radar Canadiens team ever anymore. The bottom line is I expect Game 2 to be much more competitive, so in a contest that I see being decided late, I'm going to lay the mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals. The play is Montreal on the puck-line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-29-21 | Giants v. Dodgers -141 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
The third pick in my STP (a 10*) is on the Dodgers. The Dodgers have won four in a row. They beat the Giants 3-2 here last night in the opener and I expect them to find a way to another victory on Tuesday. Clearly, this is a much-anticipated starting pitching matchup. Kevin Gausman (8-1, 1.49 ERA) of the Giants and Walker Buehler (7-1, 2.51) of the Dodgers are for all intents and purposes, completely even in this matchup. Buehler has a 0.92 WHIP and Gausman has a 0.77. Both teams have done really well, both at home and on the road, but the Dodgers are 7-1 in their last eight as a home favorite in the -135 to -155 range. The Giants managed 11 hits yesterday to the Dodgers 5, and still lost 3-2. I can't see San Francisco getting nearly that many today off of Buehler. Look for the "small ball" Dodgers to do what they do best and to get another victory at the end of the night. The play is LA. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 221 | Top | 88-110 | Loss | -101 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Hawks/Bucks. Even without Trae Young playing (he could), I think Game 4 sets up as more of an offensive affair, than a defensive one. Young is obviously a big part of this Hawks offense, but this is a feisty Atlanta team which won't be going down without a fight. John Collins, Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic will be pressed to fill the void. And for Milwaukee, it can obviously smell the blood in the water now. The Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.2 points and 13 rebounds while Khris Middleton is averaging 23.1 points and 4.7 assists. Jrue Holiday is a third double-digit scoring threat for Milwaukee. Young will do everything in his power to play tonight (obviously), but as I stated above, whether he does or not, this one has the feel of a wide-open "shootout," rather than a tight defensive "chess match." This number is low, the play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-29-21 | Twins v. White Sox -130 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
The second pick in my STP (an 8*) is on the White Sox. I had a play on this game yesterday, and it got postponed. But all of the analysis on the pick, directly applies to this one, as it's the exact same situation and pitchers going here: Chicago has lost seven of its last ten games, so it won't be taking anything for granted in this series, especially against an improving Twins side that's also out to gain ground after a terrible start to the season. The White Sox come in off a much needed 7-5 home win over the Mariners after dropping the first two games of their weekend series, and I expect them to build off that effort here in what I believe to be a favorable starting pitching matchup. The vistors go with Kenta Maeda (3-2, 4.85 ERA) who earned a win over the lowly Rangers on Sunday, allowing two runs over five innings. Maeda has been decent, not great this season. And while he does own a 2-1 record on the road, his ERA away from friendly confines climbs to a poor 5.43. The home side counters with Lucas Giolito (5-5, 3.80) who comes in off a strong performance against the Pirates, allowing two runs and striking out seven over six innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Giolito has gotten progressively stronger with each start and he's now posted a 23/5 K/W over his last 18 innings of work. He also has 110 strikeouts over 87.2 frames this season (he also owns a 3.35 ERA at home, compared to 5.58 on the road.) I like Giolito to get the better of Maeda, who I believe will continue to struggle with his road starts. Lay the reasonable price, the play is Chicago. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-29-21 | Padres -147 v. Reds | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
The first pick in my STP (an 8*), is on the Padres. The Padres held on for a 5-4 win over the Diamondbacks two nights ago. They've won nine of their last ten and I think they can keep the good times rolling here in what shapes up to be a favorable starting pitching matchup for them. San Diego goes with Blake Snell (3-3, 5.29 ERA), who went five scoreless against the Dodgers on Tuesday, striking out five in the process. Snell's home and away records are disproportionate. He's 3-0 with a 1.45 ERA at home and 0-3 with a 10.53 ERA on the road. He's not nearly as good as his home record, nor nearly as poor as his road record. The Reds are off a big 12-4 win over Philadelphia yesterday, but I think they'll take a step back with rookie Tony Santillan on the mound. Santillan (1-1, 3.29), gave up one run and struck out eight over six innings in a win over Atlanta in his last outing for his first career victory. Clearly the book is still out on the rookie. I think Snell is the correct call here. Look for San Diego to give their "ace" enough support to pull off a solid victory as the road favorite on Tuesday night. The play is the Padres. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-29-21 | Germany v. England OVER 2.25 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -55.5 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* EURO-CUP TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER England/Germany. England has struggled to find the back of the net so far in this tournament, but I expect the Three Lions to finally get things rolling here against a Germany team which has been susceptible on the backend. England has two 1-nil victories and a scoreless draw. It hasn't allowed a goal in 450 minutes of football, but now it faces its most daunting task here in Germany's attack. Joachim Low and Germany will be out to push the pace and get the Three Lions on their heels. If England has to play from behind, it's going to be out of its comfort zone and that's something that Low wants to see happen here. Neither team has any significant injuries to deal with either. But if England is going to get by this offensive juggernaut, it's going to need its captain Harry Kane to rediscover his golden form. Germany's attack is the most efficient that England has seen and I think it's defense will finally get cracked here. Look for this total to fly well over in regulation before the final whistle sounds. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-28-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | Top | 116-102 | Win | 100 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 5 SHOW-DOWN is on the Clippers (analysis posted shortly). Kawhi Leonard will not be playing in this contest, but I think that Paul George and this veteran Clippers team won't be going down without a fight. George had 23 points and 16 boards in his team's 84-80 Game 4 loss. Reggie Jackson added 20 points. George though had an uncharacteristically poor shooting night, finishing just five of 20 from the floor and only one of nine from range. Suffice it to say, I don't expect that to happen twice, especially with elimination on the line. The Suns have been fantastic, exceeding everyone's expectations all year. There's also no question that they're in unchartered territory here. I think Phoenix is going to struggle to put away this desperate LA side. The Clippers earn a win here, and they have nothing to lose heading back home for a Game 6. Also note that the Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 95 points or less in. In what I expect to be another really tight game, I'm grabbing the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Habs/Bolts. Montreal's Carey Price is only allowing an average of 2.04 GPG in the playoffs, while the Lightning's Andrei Vasilevskiy is conceding just 1.9 in the postseason. The main reason these two clubs are here right now is because of their tough defensive play, and unbelievable goaltending. We know these teams can play defense. We know these goaltenders have the ability to "steal" a game on "any given Sunday." We don't have to question these team's defensive game-plans or mentality. But the winner of this series is going to be the one that can generate offense. Tampa would seemingly have the upper-hand in that department, as it finished the regular season among the best in almost all offensive statistical categories. The Habs? Not so much. But with a few extra days off to prepare for this one and to get their "legs" back underneath them after a gruelling journey to this point, I think it will indeed be these offenses which garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. So that's my read/call in Game 1. I expect a faster-paced, more wide-open affair, one which sees the total fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks +4 | Top | 113-102 | Loss | -103 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 3 TIE-BREAKER is on the Hawks. I think this is going to be a war until the final bucket. Whichever of these hungry teams has its hands on the ball last is going to be the winner in my estimation, so because of that, I'm going to grab the points. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 28.9 points and 13.2 rebounds for the Bucks in this series, while Trae Young is averaging 29.4 points and 9.9 assists for the Hawks. Milwaukee was much better at home than on the road this year. It's 32-11 ATS at home, and a mediocre 23-19 on the road. Atlanta is better at home too than on the road, going 22-23 away from friendly confines and 28-13 ATS on its own floor. In fact note, the Hawks are 20-6 ATS their last 26 here. Atlanta hasn't lost back-to-back games since May 1st and it's done a great job in making adjustments after a setback each time during the playoffs. I look for that trend to continue here from Nate McMillan, who would have also been a great candidate for Coach Of The Year honors. Grab the points, but don't be shocked if it's outright. Good luck...Larry |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,056 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Ricky Tran | $501 |
Dan Kaiser | $445 |
Sean Murphy | $296 |
Jimmy Boyd | $286 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Ray Monohan | $36 |