Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles +1.5 | Top | 37-19 | Loss | -116 | 93 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET. The LA Rams eked out a 20-17 Week 1 win over the Cowboys last Sunday night, when they opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium. On the other side of the country, the Philadelphia Eagles jumped out to a 17-0 in the nation's capital against the Washington Football Team, before Washington scored the game's final 27 points in a 10-point Philly loss. As the Rams visit Philly to take on the Eagles in this Week 2 contest, all eyes will be on the QB matchup between Jared Goff and Carson Wentz. Some quick history. Two QBs have been selected Nos. 1-2 in the NFL draft only SEVEN times since 1967. However, it NEVER worked out for both teams until Goff (Rams) and Wentz (Eagles) went 1-2 in the 2016 draft. Wentz finished third in MVP voting his sophomore season (2017) when the Eagles won their first Super Bowl title, although they would win without him after he tore two knee ligaments late in the season (threw for 3,296 yards with a 33-7 ratio in 13 games), Goff followed by leading the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance the following season (201*0, where they lost 13-3 to New England (Goff threw for 4,688 yards with a 32-12 ratio). The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. Goff was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys, completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but McVay went into the game expecting to give more playing time to rookie Cam Akers, who started and ran for 39 yards. McVay is likely to give more work to Akers and second-year pro Darrell Henderson against the Eagles, The defense did a VERY good job vs Dallas, holding the Cowboys to just three points in the second half, on SIX possessions. Wentz (270 yards with two TDs and two INTs) had two TD passes as the Eagles took a 17-0 lead at Washington in the second quarter but a non-existent running game (17 for 57 yards / 3.4 YPC), an injury-depleted offensive line that allowed eight sacks and three TOs, "did in" Philadelphia. The bright spot was the Philly D, which allowed just 80 rushing yards (2.2 YPC) and 159 passing yards. The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 20-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games. However, the Eagles have won SIS straight against the Rams (6-0 ATS, as well), including their most recent meeting in 2018, when the Eagles won 30-23 at LA in Week 15 as a 13 1/2-point underdog. Philly RB Miles Sanders is expected to return for the Eagles after missing the opener with a hamstring injury. His addition is no small deal, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Eagles bounce back with a win and avoid an 0-2 start. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-19-20 | Wake Forest v. NC State -2 | Top | 42-45 | Win | 100 | 58 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* ACC Game of the Year is on NC State at 8:00 ET. Dave Clawson is in his seventh season at Wake Forest. He opened with back-to-back season of 3-9 but has led Wake to four straight bowls the last four years 30-22 overall0, winning three bowls in a row before last year's 27-21 loss to Michigan St. A fifth straight winning season (and bowl trip) may be asking "too much" for the Demon Deacons in 2020, as Clawson unexpectedly had to replace QB Jamie Newman (2,868 passing yards with 26 TDs and 574 rushing yards with 6 TDs), who is a graduate-transfer at Georgia. The multi-tool QB salvaged Wake's 2018 season and led Wake to a 7-1 start in 2019, before injuries set in. The Demon Deacons routed NC State 44-10 on Nov 2 and at 7-1, were ranked 19th in the AP poll. However, Wake stumbled to a 1-4 finish. Wake was originally expected to open at Old Dominion and follow with home games against Appalachian St and Villanova but COVID-19 had other ideas. Wake instead opened against No. 1 Clemson last Saturday and offered little resistance in a 37-13 loss. Clemson 'called off the dogs' with a 37-3 lead and 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points allowed Wake to earn (?) a 'backdoor cover!' Wake travels to Raleigh on Saturday night to take on NC State, which has yet to play a game. The Wolfpack's original September schedule had them playing at Louisville and Troy, with home games against Miss St and Delaware. NONE of the schools are on NC St's current 2020 schedule. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-20. NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters return on offense, so expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18). Sam Hartman replaces Newman at QB for Wake but he was just 11 of 21 for 182 yards against Clemson and when he was in, Wake accounted for just THREE points. Wake's running game gained just 37 yards on 34 attempts and the passing game was severely hampered when WR Sage Surratt (66 catches for 9 TDs before getting hurt in the team's ninth game and winding up with shoulder surgery), "opted out" prior to the season. True, NC State St is "no Clemson" but the home team has dominated this series the last two-plus decades, going with a 19-4 SU and 18-5 ATS. Last year's game was a "no contest," as Wake won at home, 44-10. However, Newman had 307 yards passing and rushing, while accounting for five TDs (3 TDP and two rushing scores). As noted above, he's now at Georgia. NC St opened last season 4-0 at home but was never the same after that 44-10 loss at Wake. The Wolfpack lost their final three home games but all came vs bowl-bound opponents Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina. Prior to NC St's home loss to Clemson on Nov 16 of 2019, the Wolfpack were on a 15-2 SU run at home, Note that the last time NC St hosted Wake was in 2018 and the Wolfpack were 19 1/2-point favorites. That makes Saturday's pointspread (I got NC St minus-2) look pretty tempting. "Big Play" here on the Wolfpack! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville -2.5 | Top | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Revenge Game of the Month is on Louisville at 7:30 ET. Mark Richt's first season at Miami was 2016 .The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after a 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Richt abruptly resigned after Miami's 35-3 Pinstripe Bowl loss to Wisconsin in 2018. His DC Manny Diaz had already moved on to Temple as the new Owls' head coach but he returned to Miami. Pretty convoluted, right? Miami struggled for most of 2019, going just 6-6 in the regular season. The 'Canes then lost 14-0 to La Tech in the Independence Bowl, as the Bulldogs became the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. Pretty sure Miami hasn't included that factoid on its resume.Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. Both schools have opened 1-0, as Miami won its 14th straight home opener 31-14 over UAB and Louisville won at home over Western Ky, 35-21.The Hurricanes lost several players to either graduation, the NFL or opting out due to coronavirus concerns. That group included leading rusher Deejay Dallas, leading receiver K.J. Osborn, leading tackler Shaq Quarterman, top cornerback Trajan Bandy and the leader in sacks Greg Rousseau, with 15.5. However, in D'Eriq King (a Houston graduate transfer), the 'Canes have an electric dual-threat QB, King passed for 144 yards and one TD and added 83 rushing yards and another TD. That performance extended his active NCAA-record streak of 16 consecutive games with at least one TD pass and one TD run. Carson stepped in as the team's featured back and gained 134 yards (7.9 YPC) while scoring two TDs. Miami's known for its "D" and the team's "stop-unit" didn't disappoint, holding the Blazers to 14 points of 285 yards. Speaking of "playing defense," Louisville allowed three TDs in its win over Western Ky but one needs to look MUCH deeper than the final score to objectively judge the team's defensive effort. The Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western KY's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. Offensively, the Cardinals had a nice effort. They had four plays of more than 40 yards and junior QB Micale Cunningham completed 19 of 34 passes for 343 yards with three TDs and just one interception. WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards. However, with extra attention being paid to Atwell, fellow WRs Dez Fitzpatrick and Braden Smith each had 110 yards in receptions (four catches each, averaging 27.5 per!). RBs Hawkins and Hall combined for 137 yards on the ground, averaging 5.5 YPC. Miami rolled at home last year 52-27 over Louisville but the Cards' 2019 defense allowed 33.4 PPG (109) on 439.9 YPG (102nd). This season's D was terrific last week (see above) and while Miami's "O," led by King will be a tougher assignment, I 'love' the "revenge angle" in this matchup. After all, Miami is just 4-10 SU in road and neutral site games the last two seasons (including 0-2 in bowls, losing by a combined scores of 49-3). Miami will basically have to win here to cover and I'll take Satterfield over Diaz ANYTIME on the sidelines! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-19-20 | Stars v. Lightning -145 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Year is on the TB Lightning at 7:35 ET. The Dallas Stars and Tampa Bay Lightning meet in the 2020 Stanley Cup Final, with Game 1 set for Saturday night in Edmonton. Dallas is in its first Finals since 2000, the year after the Stars won the franchise's lone Stanley Cup (1998-99 season). Tampa Bay returns to the Finals for the first time since 2015 and like Dallas, the Lightning own just one title in franchise history (2003-04 season). Tampa Bay being here is hardly a surprise, as the Lightning went 62-16-4 (128 points) in the 2018-19 season, tying the record for most wins in a single season in NHL history. However, the Lightning then got swept in four games by Columbus in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Tampa Bay had a very good regular season and this year's playoff run has been billed as the team's "Redemption Tour." The 'story' behind the Stars' run to the Stanley Cup Final is more of a 'Cinderella' one. Dallas had lost SIX straight prior to the March shutdown and then went 1-2 in the round robin seeding round, losing 5-3 to Vegas and 4-0 to Colorado, before winning a 2-1 shootout against St Louis. The Stars were then seconds away from falling behind 3-1 lead in Game 4 of their best-of-seven series with the Flames. However, the Stars scored at 19:48 of the third period and then won 5-4 in OT. Dallas won Games 5 and 6 to take the series. However, the Star then found themselves up 3-1 vs Colorado in the next round but got extended to a Game 7. Dallas trailed 4-3 in Game 7 but tied it with 3 1/2 minutes left, then won in OT. Then came the Western Conference finals against favored Vegas, where despite being outshot and outplayed by wide margins throughout the series, the Stars won it in just FIVE games (4-1). No. 1 goaltender Ben Bishop was injured early in the postseason and has started just three games (1-2, 5.43 GAA and .844 SP). To the rescue has been Anton Khudobin. He's played in 19 games (18 starts) this postseason, going 12-6 with a 2.62 GAA and .920 SP. Against Vegas, he 'carried' the team on his back. He stopped 153 of 161 shots for a .950 save percentage in the five games, including stopping 104 of 109 shots (.954 SP) as the Stars closed out the Golden Knights by winning THREE in a row after a 3-0 Game 2 loss. Speaking of goalies, Tampa Bay's Andrei Vasilevskiy has started all 19 games for the Lightning since the Aug 1 restart, going 14-5 with a 1.82 GAA and .931 SP. His GAA in the regular season (that's an improvement of 0.74!) and his SP was .917, After the Islanders won Game 3 by the score of 5-3 (when they down 0-2 in the series), Vasilevskiy stopped 74 of 78 shots (.949 SP!) as the Lightning won game 4 (4-1), lost Game 5 (2-1 in 2OTs) and then closed out New York with a 2-1 OT win in Game 6. Tampa Bay defeated the Columbus Blue Jackets (revenge for that 4-0 sweep last postseason) and Boston Bruins in five games (Boston's 100 points were an NHL-best this season, before beating the New York Islanders in six games in the Eastern Conference final. Tampa's high-octane attack was too much for the defense-first Islanders. Clearly, Dallas' play in the postseason has Tampa Bay's full attention but if that was not enough, the Lightning can't possibly forget Dallas won both regular-season meetings against Tampa Bay (each one went into OT!). NO overtime needed here, as the Lightning take a 1-0 lead with a comfortable win. It's my GAME of the YEAR! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-19-20 | Louisiana Tech v. Southern Miss -5 | Top | 31-30 | Loss | -115 | 76 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Southern Miss at 7:30 ET. La Tech has had stability on the coaching sidelines, as Skip Holtz is entering his eighth season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2019 marked the SIXTH consecutive season in which he'd led the Bulldogs to a bowl game. What's more, his Bulldogs have won EACH one. In last season's Independence Bowl, La Tech beat Miami-Florida 14-0, becoming the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. La Tech was supposed to open at Baylor last Saturday but that game was postponed due to COVID-19. That makes this Sep 19 game at Southern Miss the school's 2020 opener. Southern Miss opened its season at home back on Sep 3 against South Alabama and the Golden Eagles lost 32-21 as almost two-TD favorites. It was no fluke, as the Jaguars ran up 526 years (363 passing / 163 rushing), as South Alabama snapped a 15-game road losing streak (last won 19-8 at Troy back on 10/11/17). Jay Hopson began his fifth season in Hattiesburg and he had produced a winning season in each of his first four, three times getting Southern Miss to a bowl game (team was 6-5 in 2018 and fell short of bowl-eligibility due to a canceled game with App St due to a hurricane). However, he resigned following the South Alabama loss. Interim head coach Scotty Walden was previously co-OC and is now the youngest head coach in the FBS at 30 years old. La Tech reached 10 wins in 2019 for the first time since 1983 and went 6-0 at home for the first time since 1973. Coming anywhere near 10 wins this year will be near-impossible, as the Bulldogs are currently scheduled to play just 11 games, assuming there are no more COVID issues. QB J'Mar Smith will be sorely missed, as he threw for 2,977 yards (18/5 ratio) and ran for 4 TDs as a senior. He ended his career winning his final 10 starts. His replacement will be either sophomore Aaron Allen or Abilene Christian transfer, Luke Anthony. FIVE of the team's top-six pass catchers return but none had more than Smoke Harris' 47 catches and he averaged just 7.4 YPC. Senior RB Henderson is back and he ran for 1,062 yards (5.6 YPC) and 15 TDs last season. However, the defense returns just TWO starters (nine of top-12 tacklers are gone) from a unit that allowed 21.8 PPG (30th) on 377.7 YPG (53rd). The bright spot in Southern Miss' season-opening loss was QB Jack Abraham, who completed 69% of his passes and threw for 314 yards in 32 attempts without an INT (also didn't throw a TD). The running game remains a mess, as the team averaged just 117.5 YPG (121st) last season and was able to garner only 95 yards (2.6 YPC) against South Alabama. The defense can't be as bad as it showed vs South Alabama and I expect a big bounce-back effort by the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss has been to 18 bowls from 1997-through 2019 (a 23-year span) and while I wouldn't typically play a team right after its head coach resigned, I almost have to believe that the players will rally around the 30-year-old Walden. Abraham had a good game passing back on Sep 3 (see above) and should 'love' going up against a La Tech defense that returns just two starters, having lost all four starting DBs. Southern Miss has had two-weeks-plus to 'stew' over that loss to South Alabama and I expect at least a two-TD margin of victory over La Tech, playing its first game of 2020. Lay it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-19-20 | Blue Jays -130 v. Phillies | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Tor Blue Jays at 6:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies swept Friday's doubleheader against the Toronto Blue Jays, 7-0 and 8-. It was the team's first doubleheader sweep since Sep 9, 2012 against the Colorado Rockies (That's quite a long stretch). The twin bill win moved the Phillies above .500 at 26-25, leaving them just a half-game back of the Marlins for second [place in the NL East. ALL 2nd-place teams get into the postseason plus two wild card spots are also available. That current race is a mad scramble, with FIVE teams hovering at just above .500 or right at .500. The doubleheader loss was Toronto's FIFTH consecutive defeat (Blue Jays were swept by the New York Yankees from Tuesday-Thursday). Suddenly, the Blue Jays have seen their record dip to 26-25.Toronto opened the week a season-best SIX games over .500 (26-20) and back on the morning of Sep 8, sat 24-18, three games ahead of the 21-21 Yankees for second-place in the AL East. However, the Yankees beat Toronto 7-3 on Sep 9, the first of NINE straight wins. The Jays are 2-7 during that same span and are now FOUR games back of New York. Toronto has just NINE games left and its wild card hopes are good but the Jays NEED to get back on the winning track. The Blue Jays will hand the ball to Hyun Jin Ryu (4-1, 3.00 ERA) while the Phillies counter with Vince Velasquez (0-1 with a 6.46 ERA). Ryu went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with the Dodgers last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with LA that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but since Aug 1, the Jays are 7-1 in his eight starts (Toronto is 8-2 in his 10 starts, overall). He allowed five ERs in a Sep 7 start vs the Yankees but Toronto came back to win that game, 12-5. In his other SEVEN starts since Aug 1, he's allowed only FIVE earned runs in 40 innings for a 1.13 ERA and a 46-8 KW ratio. Yes, his FA signing was a "good one!" In stark contrast, Velasquez is still searching for his first win of 2020, in his EIGHTH start of the season. Just a thought, he could hardly expect to pick up too many "Ws" when he owns a 6.46 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .292 BAA over his first seven starts of 2020. Fact is, the Phillies have gone 0-7 in his 2020 starts. Bottom line is, Velasquez is no more than a journeyman. He's made 129 career appearances (104 starts) with a 4.74 ERA , 1.38 WHIP and .259 BAA. How bad has 2020 been. His ERA is 1.72 HIGHER than his career average, his WHIP is .31 higher and his BAA .33 points higher. What's NOT to like about Ryu over Velasquez in this one? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-18-20 | Twins v. Cubs -125 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Chi Cubs at 8:15 ET. The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central title in 2019 with a 101-61 record, the franchise's first 100-win season since the 1965 season (lost a seven-game World Series to the Dodgers and Sandy Koufax). The Twins opened the current season 10-2 but a 10-14 stretch left them a modest 20-16 at the end of August. Minnesota opened September 10-2 but lost THREE of four to open the week in Chicago against the White Sox (note: White Sox clinched a playoff berth with Thursday's win). The 31-21 Twins remain in excellent shape for a playoff berth as they travel about eight miles north to Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). Chicago hardly looks like a team ready to 'IMPLODE' down the stretch in 2020. The Cubs hired David Ross on October 24, 2019,as their manager to replace Joe Maddon, signing him to a three-year contract. It's his first major league managing gig and Ross has done an excellent job. The Cubs come to the park Friday night looking for their FIFTH straight win. 30-20 Chicago enters this series with a 5 1/2-game lead atop the NL Central. Getting the start in Friday's opener will be Rich Hill (2-1, 3.81 ERA) for the Twins and Kyle Hendricks (5-4, 3.29 ERA) for the Cubs. Hill's been "around the block," as this is his 16th season. He owns a 63-43 career record with a 3.82 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He had a pretty good stint with the Dodgers from 2016-19, going 30-16 with his ERAs ranging from 1.83-to-3.66 and his WHIPs from 0.79-to-1.13. He battled arm woes for most of 2019 and he signed a one-year deal with Minnesota in the offseason. He was outstanding in his Minnesota debut back on July 29, holding the visiting Cardinals to two hits and a walk over five innings in a 3-0 victory. He threw 68 pitches, 41 for strikes. However, he then went on the IL for three weeks, He returned on Aug 19 and the Twins lost his next FOUR starts (5.06 ERA). His most recent start was a MAJOR improvement, as he allowed just two ERs in five innings of an 8-4 home win over Cleveland last Saturday. It seems hard to believe that Kyle Hendricks has already been with the Cubs for five-plus seasons. He's accomplished quite a bit in his time with Chicago, starting Game 7 of the World Series in 2016, a season in which he owned the lowest ERA in all of MLB (2.13). He has never finished a season with a WHIP higher than 1.19. Hendricks made his first-ever Opening Day start back on July 24 and threw a CG, three-hitter in a 3-0 victory over Milwaukee (9-0 KW ratio). That said, the 2020 season has NOT been smooth sailing (he was just 3-4 with a 4.09 ERA through August) for Hendricks. However, he enters this game in terrific form, going 2-0 with a 1.66 ERA and 17-2 KW ratio in three September starts (Cubs are 3-0)! I'm "all over" Hendricks and Cubs in this one, as Chicago comes in off back-to-back, walk-off wins against the Cleveland Indians, which followed consecutive victories against the Milwaukee Brewers by a combined score of 16-2. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 76 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Battle 4 Ohio play is on the Cin Bengals at 8:20 ET. The Browns opened the 2020 season with a new head coach, as Freddie Kitchens lasted just ONE season. Kevin Stefanski signed a five-year contract to become the 18th head coach of the Cleveland Browns on January 13, 2020 (was Minnesota's OC in 2019 and this marks his first head coaching job). QB Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). Marvin Lewis took over at Cincinnati and had just ONE playoff appearance in his first six seasons. However, he then led the Bengals to SIX postseason appearances over a seven-year stretch (2009-15) but the Bengals always lost their first playoff game. Three straight losing years followed (2016-18) and he was finally fired. Zac Taylor got the job (his first head coaching gig) in 2019 and the Bengals were just 2-14. However, Cincy was pinning its 2020 hopes on Heisman-winner Jeff Burrow out of LSU, fresh off one of CFB's most prolific seasons. Joe Burrow's NFL debut (he was the only rookie QB to start the first week of the season) was a mixed bag. He ran 23 yards for a TD but was a modest 22 of 36 for 193 yards without a TD pass. He put the Bengals in range for a dramatic, late-game win but threw an interception on a shovel pass to thwart one late scoring chance and then watched as Randy Bullock missed a 31-yard field goal with two seconds left, clinching the Chargers' 16-13 win. The good news was that the Cincy "D," which allowed 26.3 PPG in 2019, held the Chargers to just 16 points. The Browns have won just ONE game on Opening Day since returning to the NFL in 1999 and last Sunday was no different. The Cleveland D had no answer for Lamar Jackson, who completed 20 of 25 for 275 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (152.1 QB rating). Jackson also added 45 yards rushing. As for Mayfield, he was a non-factor, going 21 of 39 for 189 yards with one TD and one INT. The offense converted just 3 of 12 third downs and was 0 for 3 on 4th downs These are two sad-sack franchises but while I think the Browns 'whiffed' with Mayfield, I believe the Bengals "have a keeper" in Burrow. I'm taking the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-17-20 | Heat v. Celtics -2.5 | Top | 106-101 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Bos Celtics at 7:00 ET. No team had played better this NBA postseason than the East's No. 5 seed, the Miami Heat. The Heat were dominant through the first two rounds, going 8-1 SU & ATS. Miami's lone loss was 118-115 (OT) vs Milwaukee in Game 4, when the Heat had the Bucks 'buried' in an 0-3 'hole.' The Heat's team defense has been OUTSTANDING, as Miami has held opponents in its eight wins to an average of just 101.9 PPG. The Celtics are the East's No. 3 seed (won 48 regular season games to Miami's 44) and swept the 76ers in the first round. However, after going up 2-0 vs the Raptors in the second round, they were extended to seven games by the defending champs. The Celtics won Game 7 but only by a 'hair,' when Marcus Smart made what was a game-deciding block with just under one minute left (Boston would win, 92-87). Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals was an excellent one, as the teams made the statement, who needs the No. 1 and 2 seeds for excitement. The Celtics led the Heat by 12 points entering the final quarter and were up 14 early in the 4th. However, the Heat made a dramatic comeback and in OT, Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo were the heroes. Butler completed the game-winning three-point play with 12 seconds remaining but it was Adebayo's block to deny Jayson Tatum the chance to tie with 3.7 seconds left that garnered the most attention postgame. PG Dragic continued his outstanding postseason play with 29 points and SF Crowder added 22. Butler had 20-5-5 and Adebayo 18-6-9. Let's NOT ignore the performance of rookie guard Tyler Herro (Kentucky), who fell an assist shy of his first career triple-double (12 points, 11 rebounds, nine assists) in 40 minutes off the bench. Boston's Tatum led the Celtics with 30 & 14 plus Smart continued his strong playoffs with 26 points in the loss. However, another poor showing by All-Star point guard Kemba Walker really hurt Boston, Walker needed 19 shots (he made just six) to get to 19 points. It was his THIRD straight game failing to reach 20 points while shooting worse than 32 percent. He was 1 of 9 from three-point range. "I'm just playing terrible, to be honest," Walker said. "Not much I can say, but I have to be better. I have to do better for this team on both ends of the floor. I have to make better decisions. I just have to make shots overall." It's only Game 2 but doesn't it feel like a "Make or Break" one for Boston. Reading the Game 1 recap on ESPN.com, it was reported that the Celtics had been 156-1 since the shot-clock era started 65 years ago -- winners of 92 straight -- when leading by 12 or more points going into the fourth quarter of a playoff game. They're now 156-2. There's no real 'gap' between these two teams but n\my bet says Boston ties it up at one-all. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-17-20 | Mets v. Phillies -118 | Top | 10-6 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies played SEVEN games over a five-day span (Sep 10-14) with the Miami Marlins, losing FIVE of the seven games. That left 23-23 Philly and 1 1/2 games back of the 24-21 Marlins for second-place in the NL East as of Tuesday morning. However, despite playing without outfielder Jay Bruce, first baseman Rhys Hoskins and catcher J.T. Realmuto, the Phils beat the Mets 4-1 Tuesday night (note: starter Jake Arrieta suffered an apparent hamstring injury on Tuesday). Coupled with Miami's 2-0 home loss to Boston, the 24-23 Phils were now just a half-game back of the 24-22 Marlins. Philly's three-game series with the Mets continued Wednesday evening, with the 21-27 Mets hoping to avoid a FOURTH straight loss. Jacob deGrom's balky hamstring forced an untimely exit Wednesday night after just two innings (three runs allowed on four hits). The New York Mets fell behind 4-0 but erased that four-run deficit to rally for a 5-4 victory. That Philly loss coupled with Miami's 8-4 win over Boston, means the 25-22 Marlins are back to a 1 1/2 game lead over the 24-24 Phillies for second place in the NL East. New York is not officially eliminated from the playoff field but with just 11 games remaining, the Mets' season remains on 'life-support.' The 'rubber match' of the three-game series is set for Wednesday, with Seth Lugo (2-3, 2.63 ERA) taking the mound for the Mets and Aaron Nola (5-3, 2.40 ERA) getting the nod for Philly. Lugo made all 61 of his 2019 appearances out of the bullpen, posting a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .192 BAA (he had six saves and 21 holds). He's made 164 appearances but just 35 starts but this marks his fifth start of 2020. He's lasted a modest 17 innings in those four starts and while his ERA is 2.65, the Mets are just 1-3. Nola is considered Philly's 'ace.' Throw in the fact that he's 7-1 with a 3.13 ERA in 13 career starts vs the Mets (Phils are 9-4) and Nola over Matz is the logical play. Now, let's win it! He's made nine starts in 2020 and in September, posting a 1.33 ERA with a 29-4 KW ratio. Nola is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA against the Mets this season but in his career is 8-2 (team is 10-5 in his 15 starts), posting a 3.00 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. The Phillies have four games with Toronto coming up Fri-sun (doubleheader tomorrow) and the 26-22 Jays are a tough opponent fighting for a postseason spot. Last thing Philly needs is a loss here (heading into that series), after blowing a four-run lead last night. I'm backing Nola in a "big way!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-16-20 | Mets -130 v. Phillies | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the NY Mets at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies played SEVEN games over a five-day span (Sep 10-14) with the Miami Marlins, losing FIVE of the seven games. That left 23-23 Philly 1 1/2 games back of the 24-21 Marlins for second-place in the NL East as of Tuesday morning. However, despite playing without outfielder Jay Bruce, first baseman Rhys Hoskins and catcher J.T. Realmuto, the Phils beat the Mets 4-1 Tuesday night (note: starter Jake Arrieta suffered an apparent hamstring injury on Tuesday). Coupled with Miami's 2-0 home loss to Boston, the 24-23 Phils are now just a half-game back of the 24-22 Marlins. Philly's three-game series with the Mets continues Wednesday evening, with the 21-27 Mets hoping to avoid a FOURTH straight loss. New York is not officially eliminated from the playoff field but with just 12 games remaining, the Mets' season is currently on 'life-support.' The Mets will hand the ball to Jacob deGrom (4-1, 167 ERA), while the Phillies counter with ex-Met Zack Wheeler (4-0, 2.47 ERA). DeGrom is trying to become just the third pitcher, after Hall of Famers Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson, to win three straight Cy Young Awards. This marks his 10th start of 2020 and his current 1.67 ERA is lower than in each of his last two Cy Young-winning seasons and that goes the same for his 0.87 WHIP and .173 BBA, as well. The difference in 2020 has been deGrom has gotten run-support in his starts this season, with the Mets going 7-2 in his starts (they were under .500 in each of his last two seasons). Wheeler signed a $118 million free-agent contract after completing last season with the Mets and is living up to the high expectations expected of him. He's 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA in eight starts (Phils are 6-2), having allowed two ERs or less in SIX of his eight starts this season, allowing a modest three ERs in each of the other two. Wheeler takes the mound after missing several extra days with a torn fingernail on the middle finger of his pitching hand. Wheeler suffered the bizarre injury putting his pants on. "You can't make this stuff up," Phillies manager Joe Girardi said. Hard to argue with that. Wheeler's faced his ex-teammates twice so far in 2020 and the Phillies have won both games (he's 1-0 with a 3.46 ERA). However, the third time will NOT be the charm, as deGrom has dominated the Phillies In his career, going 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 16 starts (Mets are 13-3), Blowout Alert. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-16-20 | Cardinals +143 v. Brewers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 143 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the StL Cards at 5:10 ET (Game 1). Milwaukee welcomed the Cards to Miller Park for a Monday doubleheader, as the teams began a five-games series over three days. For the Cards, Monday kicked off a 13-game road trip over the next 10 days (three scheduled doubleheaders). By the end of the trip, the Cards' pitching staff will surely be tested. The Cards lost Game 1 of Monday's doubleheader (2-1 in eight innings) but won 3-2 in nine innings in the nightcap. However, after two low-scoring one-run contests, it was all Milwaukee in Tuesday's single game, as the Brewers won 18-3. As the teams get set for a second doubleheader in three days, the 21-22 Cards are barely holding on to second-place in the NL Central, a half-game up on the Reds and one game up on the Brewers. The division's second-place team gets a playoff berth but the other two teams are right in the mix for the NL's two wild card spots. The Game 1 starters are Adam Wainwright (4-1, 2.91 ERA) for St Louis and Brandon Woodruff (2-3, 3.40 ERA) for Milwaukee. St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. Wainwright's been excellent this season, allowing three ERs or less in SIX of his seven starts (Cards are 5-2). He's pitched at least six innings in all but one start, the exception being a five-inning effort in a doubleheader game (7 innings). Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note is, the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. The Brewers are just 5-5 in Woodruff's 10 starts in 2020, despite the fact that he's allowed three ERs or less in NINE of those 10 starts. Woodruff has only c-faced the Cards twice in his career (he is 2-0 with a 3,37 ERA) but Wainwright has made 37 career starts vs Milwaukee, going 17-10 with 2,51 ERA (teams is 23-12 in his starts). He's been very good at Milwaukee, going 7-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 20 career games (16 starts) and since 2014, he is 3-0 with a 2.02 ERA in six starts at Miller Park. Want more "good stuff" on Wainwright. The 39-year old's 2020 ERA is 2.91 (career in 3.38), his 2020 WHIP is 1.01 (career is 1.23) and his 2020 BAA is .212 (career is .252). HUGE game here for the Cards, as the pitching staff will really be stretched out the next seven days. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-16-20 | A's +112 v. Rockies | Top | 3-1 | Win | 112 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Oak A's at 3:10 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Wednesday morning. | |||||||
09-15-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -7.5 | Top | 104-89 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Game 7 Decider is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. The entire NBA 'world' is anticipating a Western Conference showdown between the Lakers and Clippers. Both LA teams took 3-1 leads in their respective semifinal series and the 'Battle 4 LA' seemed all but set in the Orlando 'bubble.' However, the Nuggets have so far, put that 'party' on hold. The Lakers finished off the Rockets handily in Game 5 of their series (119-96) but the Clippers have now blown back-to-back double digit leads in Games 5 and 6 of their series with Denver The Nuggets trailed by 16 points at the half in Game 5 but went on the win 111-105 and "did it again" in Game 6.The Clippers led Denver by 19 points with 22 minutes to go, only to see Denver pull away for a 111-98 victory. Denver won the third quarter 30-16 and the 4th, 34-19. LA head coach Doc Rivers was blunt after the team's Game 6 loss, saying there was 'no secret' to his team's collapses. "There's no secret like potion that something happened," Rivers said on Monday about the Clippers' two blown leads in a row. "The two things that we didn't do, clearly defensively, they shot almost 60% in the second half. The one thing that did stand out, they went to the free throw line like on every play." Denver center Jokic (26.1-9.9-5.5) and PG Murray (26.1-5.1-6.5) have led the Nuggets during the playoffs, as only PF Porter (11.8 & 6.9) joins them in double digits this postseason. In Sunday's contest, Jokic had 34 points, 14 rebounds and seven assists, while Murray had 21 points, Gary Harris added 16 and Michael Porter Jr. chipped in with 13. The Nuggets outscored the Clippers 64-35 in the second half. "It was just amazing," Denver head coach Michael Malone told the media after the game. "We had 11 straight stops at one point. Coming into this round they were the No. 1 offense in the playoffs, so I'm running out of adjectives, superlatives, whatever you want to call it to speak on our team because that is a tough, resilient group of you know what. I love our team." Paul George has had an uneven postseason for the Clippers but had 33 points, six rebounds and five steals in Game 6 for the Clippers. Kawhi Leonard contributed 25 points, eight boards and five assists but those numbers were below his playoff averages of 29.4-9.6-5.5. "Just gave up the lead again, pretty much," said Kawhi, who made 8 of 18 shots and 3 of 5 three-pointers. "They came down and either scored or got fouled in the third quarter, and we couldn't buy a basket. That's how they came back." So here we are in the FOURTH Game 7 of the 2020 playoffs and naturally, the Nuggets are again part of the story. Denver played two seven-game series in the 2019 playoffs (1-1) and came back from a 3-1 deficit in their first round series to oust the Jazz. The Nuggets will be trying to become the first NBA team to rally from a 3-1 deficit in back-to-back series. As Nuggets center Nikola Jokic said, "To us, Game 7 is just another game. Truthfully, the 'weight' of a Game 7 contest will weigh more heavily on the Los Angeles Clippers. They are attempting to advance to their first-ever Western Conference final and they are 0-7 in franchise history in previous attempts to get there. The "difference" this time around? The Clippers never had a player like Kawhi Leonard before. He was the Finals MVP for the Spurs in 2014 and then repeated that performance last year in leading Toronto to that franchise's first-ever NBA title. Can he lead the Clipps to the 2020 title? That's NOT the question here. However, my bet says he helps the Ciphers erase the above-mentioned 0-7 record by leading them to a double-digit win in Game 7. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-20 | Dodgers v. Padres +117 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SD Padres at 9:10 ET. The LA Dodgers entered 2020's 60-game MLB season having won the NL West the previous SEVEN years. They were overwhelming favorites to do so again and were expected to be the NL's representative in the World Series. LA has not disappointed, as despite losing FIVE of their last eight, the Dodgers still own MLB's best record (33-15), as well as MLB's best run-differential (plus-98). That said, the Dodgers now find themselves in a 'dogfight' with NL West rival San Diego, which has won EIGHT straight, as well as 21 of its last 26. The teams opened a three-game series at Petco Park last night, with the Padres winning 7-2. They handed three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw (three ERs allowed in 6.1 IP) only his SEVENTH loss in 28 career decisions against San Diego plus also got four runs on five hits in a span of just 11 batters against the Dodgers' top-ranked, NL bullpen. San Diego's Dinelson Lamet outdueled Kershaw on Monday (allowed one run in seven innings with 11 Ks) and r-the Padres hand the ball to their best starter for tonight's game, Zach Davies (7-2, 2.48 ERA). The Dodgers counter Tony Gonsolin (0-1, 1.57 ERA). Gonsolin has thrust into a key role in the Dodgers' injury-riddled rotation. He has yet to earn a win but in six appearances (five starts / Dodgers are 3-2), has given up six runs (five earned) on 18 hits and six walks with 28 strikeouts over 28.2 innings for a 0.84 WHIP and .178 BAA to go along with his sub-.2.00 ERA. As for Davies, his best season was back in 2017 with Milwaukee (17-9, 3.90 ERA) but he went just 12-14 over 44 starts in 2018 and 2019. He was traded to San Diego this past offseason and the Padres are VERY happy. Davies has a decision in all NINE of his starts (7-2), never allowing more than three ERs in any outing. Along with his excellent ERA (2.48), he owns a superb 0.96 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .191 BAA. Gonsolin and Davies squared off against each other back on Aug 12 at Dodger Stadium in a game won by the Dodgers 6-0. It was one of the TWO losses suffered by Davies, who gave up just two runs on four hits and two walks with five strikeouts in seven innings. Gonsolin allowed three hits and a walk with eight strikeouts over 4.2 innings but took a no-decision. Since that loss to LA, Davies has ripped off FIVE straight wins, allowing just eight ERs over 31.2 innings for a 2.27 ERA. I woke up this morning to this tweet from ESPN' Alden Gonzalez, " The Padres have won 8 in a row and are 1 1/2 games behind one of the greatest Dodgers teams in history for first place in the National League West. Amazing." Well put Alden. I'll 'ride' Davies in this one as a small home underdog. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-20 | Cardinals -141 v. Brewers | Top | 3-18 | Loss | -141 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (NL) is on the StL Cards at 7:40 ET. The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and were off the field for 17 days. However, they open the new week (two weeks to the end of the regular season) 20-20 and in second place in the NL Central, FOUR games behind the division-leading Chicago Cubs and two games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers won the NL Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) and then won 89 games last year to earn a wild card spot, where they blew a 3-0 lead in losing to the Nats. Milwaukee welcomed the Cards to Miller Park for a Monday doubleheader, as the teams began a five-games series over three days (Weds doubleheader on tap, as well). For the Cards, Monday kicked off a 13-game road trip over the next 10 days (three doubleheaders are scheduled). By the end of the trip, the Cards' pitching staff will surely be tested. I played the Cards in Game 1 yesterday and got an excellent effort from Kim (seven scoreless innings) but after the Cards took a 1-0 in the 8th, the Brewers won it with two runs in the bottom of the innings. Game 2 went 'extra-innings' as well (remember, doubleheaders are 7-innings TY), with the Cards prevailing 3-2 in nine innings. The top two teams in each division earn a spot in the postseason and despite winning just four games in their last 10 and trailing the first-place Chicago Cubs by four games, the 21-21 Cardinals still find themselves in decent position to make the postseason. Milwaukee's loss in the second game dropped them to , the team's SIXTH loss in its last nine contests. Since a 19-0 win at Detroit on Sep 9, the Brewers have scored a total of just SEVEN runs in five games! Jack Flaherty (3-1, 3.08 ERA) takes the mound for the Cards and the Brewers will counter with Brett Anderson (2-3, 4.64 ERA). Flaherty is off a VERY good season (11-8, 2.75 ERA / 0.97 WHIP / .192 BAA) and in six starts (Cards 4-2) in 2020, owns a 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .196 BAA (second verse, same as the first). Anderson was scratched from a scheduled start this past Saturday against the Cubs due to a right hip issue but is said to be fine. The problem for Milwaukee is, he's really just a journeyman. He's made 195 appearances (183 starts) in his 12 years (for six teams), going 61-64 with a 4.07 ERA. Flaherty's getting his arm strength back from the team's 17-day COVID-forced 'hiatus' and he's my bet here. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-20 | Heat v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 117-114 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Game 1 Series Opener is on the Bos Celtics at 6:30 ET. No team has played better this NBA postseason than the East's No. 5 seed, the Miami Heat. The Heat have been dominant through the first two rounds, going 8-1 SU & ATS. Miami's lone loss was 118-115 (OT) vs Milwaukee in Game 4, when the Heat had the Bucks 'buried' in an 0-3 'hole.' The Heat's team defense has been OUTSTANDING, as Miami has held opponents in its eight wins to an average if just 10.19 PPG. The Celtics are the East's No. 3 seed (won 48 regular season games to Miami's 44) and swept the 76ers in the first round. However, after going up 2-0 vs the Raptors in the second round, they were extended to seven games by the defending champs. The Celtics won Game 7 but only by a 'hair,' when Marcus Smart made what was a game-deciding block with just under one minute left (Boston would win, 92-87). All five Miami starters are averaging in double digits, led by swingman Butler (21.8-5.6-4.2), PG Dragic (21.1-4.4-4.8) and PF Adebayo (16.2-11.7-4.8), who is shooting a team-best 54.1% among the Miami's six double-digit scorers. Kentucky rookie Herro chips in 14.7 PPG off the bench. Boston hasn't "missed a beat" after Gordon Hayward went out with an injury in the team's first playoff game. Marcus Smart has started in his place and is averaging 13.1-5.5-4.2 this postseason. The team's "Big 3" of Tatum (25.3 & 10.1), Brown (21.0 & 7.6) and Walker (19.6 & 5.3) has been excellent (Note: Walker's had his ups and down). The Celtics 'rode' their stars hard down the stretch of their semifinal series with Toronto, with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart each playing north of 40 minutes in the final two contests. However, the Celtics haven't played since Friday, so fatigue should NOT be ANY factor. As for Miami, the Heat have been idle since Sep 8. Could the layoff 'cool' them off (couldn't resist that one!)? I'm on Boston in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos +3 | Top | 16-14 | Win | 104 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the Den Broncos at 10:20 ET. The Tennessee Titans opened the 2019 season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Tannehill and Derrick Henry, the NFL's leading rusher with 1,540, then took control of the Titans' offense. The Titans would go 7-3 the rest of the way, averaging 30.4 PPG. They qualified as a wild card and then beat the Pats 23-10 on the road, followed by a shocking upset over the AFC's No. 1 seed, a 28-12 win in Baltimore. Henry ran for 182 and 195 yards (5.9 YPC) in those two wins, while Tannehill basically 'watched' (15 of 29 for just 160 yards in the two wins). Tennessee's 'Cinderella' run ended in the AFC championship game, when the Chiefs won, 35-24 (Tenn led 17-7 but KC then scored the game's next 28 points!). The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013. Tennessee visits Denver for the second-half of the NFL's Monday Night doubleheader, as the Broncos host the Titans in an empty Empower Field at Mile High. I'm not even REMOTELY sold on Tannehill at QB and while Henry's a DOMINATING force in the backfield, he has struggled in two games against Denver in his career. He ran 12 times for 42 yards backing up DeMarco Murray as a rookie in a Titans' win on Dec 11, 2016 (no big deal there) but he was held to 28 yards on 15 rushes in a 16-0 loss in Denver last October. That EASILY was Henry's worst game last season. Tennessee added two "big names" on defense, Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley Jr. However, Clowney didn't sign his contract until Sep 7 and Beasley didn't pass his physical until Sep 5, after spending training camp on the non-football injury list. Beasley is out and playing in the altitude of Denver could limit the number of reps Clowney gets. Fangio's defense was not great last year but Denver still held opponents to 19.8 PPG, one of 10 teams under 20.0 PPG . Star linebacker Von Miller suffered a serious ankle injury and is out but five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey was traded by Tennessee to Denver in the off season in a salary dump (cleared $11 million in cap space). "It's going to be a little bit more juice," Casey said as his Denver debut approached. Signing Joe Flacco was a big mistake and I wouldn't underestimate Drew Lock. The Broncos went 4-1 with him as a starter, losing only to KC (Super Bowl champs). Denver averaged 26.0 PPG in his four wins. Philip Lindsay ran for 1,011 yards (4.5 YPC) last season but will be pushed by the acquisition of Melvin Gordon. He's always been overrated as a runner but he's an outstanding pass-catcher and fits well in OC Pat Schurmer's offense. The Broncos are appearing on "Monday Night Football" for an NFL-best 29th consecutive season and I want the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-14-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -168 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -168 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Vegas Golden Knights at 8:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Monday morning. | |||||||
09-14-20 | Twins -134 v. White Sox | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. The Indians won the AL Central from 2016-18 but despite 93 wins in 2019, lost out to the Twins, who won 101 games for the first time since they won 102 games on their way to the 1965 World Series (lost that one in seven games to Sandy Koufax and the Dodgers). Cleveland and Minnesota were expected to vie for the AL Central title again in 2020 but there were some who warned, "Watch out for the White Sox!" At first glance that seems silly, as since winning the 2005 World Series, the White Sox have made just ONE postseason appearance (2008) and over the previous three seasons (2017-19), had finished 35, 29 and 28.5 games out of first-place, respectively. However, a quick check of the AL Central standings Monday morning reveals the 30-16 White Sox atop the division with the 30-18 Twins just one game back. As for the Indians, they are 26-21, 4 1/2 back of Chicago. The first and second place teams in each division make the playoffs, so it's fair to say that as the Twins and White Sox open a four-games series in Chicago on Monday night, "it's a big deal!' The Twins own a 4-2 edge against the White Sox this season but Chicago is surely 'feeling the love' and momentum from going 20-5 since the team was just 10-11 back on the morning of Aug 16.Chicago has outscored opponents 164-79 during its recent tear. The Twins opened 10-2 but were only 20-16 through the end of August. However, they head to Chicago having won 10 of 12. Getting the starts in this opening game will be Jose Berrios (4-3, 4.40 ERA) of Minnesota and Dylan Cease (5-2, 3.33 ERA) of Chicago. Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, his 2020 season has been so-so. The Twins are just 5-4 in his nine starts but there is good news. The first piece of good news is that he's won his last two outings (3.27 ERA) and the second piece is his career DOMINATION of the White Sox. This will be his third starts of 2020 against Chicago (both Minnesota wins) and he'll enter this game 12-2 with a 2.69 ERA in 16 starts against the White Sox (109 Ks in 103.2 innings), with the Twins winning 14 of those 16 starts (that's an 88% winning situation). Cease made 14 starts last season for Chicago (rookie year), going 4-7 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP (team was 6-8 in his starts). He struggled in his first start of 2020 (2.1 IP / 7 hits / 4 ERs) but in SIX August starts, looked pretty good. He allowed a modest eight ERs over 33.2 innings in that span, posting a 2.14 ERA. He's made two September starts, going 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA. I like Cease but while he hasn't started against Minnesota this season, he's 0-2 with a WHOPPING 16.71 ERA in two career starts against the Twins. Considering Berrios' career mark against Chicago, the Twins are the 'easy' pick. Now, let's win it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-14-20 | Cardinals -106 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -106 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the StL Cardinals at 5:10 ET. The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and were off the field for 17 days. However, they open the new week (two weeks to the end of the regular season) 20-20 and in second place in the NL Central, FOUR games behind the division-leading Chicago Cubs and two games ahead of the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers won the NL Central title in 2018 (swept Colorado 3-0 in the NLDS before losing the NLCS to the Dodgers in seven games) and then won 89 games last year to earn a wild card spot, where they blew a 3-0 lead in losing to the Nats. Milwaukee welcomes the Cards to Miller Park for a Monday doubleheader, as the team begins a five-games series over three days (Weds doubleheader on tap, as well). For the Cards, Monday kicks off a 13-game road trip over the next 10 days (three doubleheaders are scheduled. By the end of the trip, the Cards' pitching staff will surely be tested. Getting the nod in Game 1 on Monday will be the Cards' Kwang Hyun Kim (2-0, 0.83 ERA) and the Brewers' Josh Lindblom (1-3, 6.06 ERA). Kim played in the KBO from 2007-2019, winning MVP honors in 2008 and was part of four championship teams (2007, '08, '10 and '18). He signed a two-year contract worth $11 million on December 17, 2019 with St Louis. Kim will make the fifth start of his first season in the majors, with his last outing coming when he pitched five scoreless innings on Sep 1 against the Cincinnati Reds. In his four starts, he's 2-0 (team is 3-1) with an 0.87 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Lindblom has quite a story. He was drafted by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 2nd round of the 2008 MLB draft and made his major league debut in relief on June 1, 2011. He then spent time with Philly, Texas and Oakland through 2014, before playing in the KBO in 2015 and '16. He signed with Pittsburgh in 2017 but pitched just four games, before returning to the KBO. He went 15-4 (2.98 ERA) in 2018 and 20-3 (2.50 ERA) in 2019, winning the MVP. That was enough for him to sign a three-year deal with the Milwaukee Brewers. He opened the season making seven straight starts but his last two appearances were out of the bullpen. The Brewers were 3-1 in his first four starts but 0-3 in his last three, as he allowed 15 hits and nine ERs over just 13 innings (6.23 ERA). The St Louis pitching staff may be 'gassed' by the end of this 13-game, 10-day road trip but in today's first game of the doubleheader, I'm "all over" Kim and the Cards. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams +3 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 72 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The Los Angeles Rams open their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, on Sunday night and their opponents will be Jerry Jones' Dallas Cowboys (Jones knows a little about building a spectacular venue. Obviously, the absence of fans because of the coronavirus pandemic puts a massive asterisk on what should have been a triumphant occasion for the league and two of its most important owners, Jones and LA's Stan Kroenke. The Cowboys come to LA with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) takes over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. Sean McVay was 30-years-old when he was hired by the Rams in 2017 at the age of 30, becoming the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. The Rams went 11-5 and earned a wild card berth in his first year and then in 2018. McVay led the Rams to Super Bowl LIII, becoming the youngest coach ever to do so and earning him the NFL Coach of the Year award. The Rams finished 9-7 in 2019, missing the playoffs. The Cowboys were a disappointing 8-8 last season and FINALLY, Jones gave Garrett the boot. QBB Dak Prescott (4,902 passing yards / 30-11 TD/INT ratio), RB Zeke Elliot (1,357 yards rushing with 12 TDs and 54 catches) and WR Omari Cooper (79 catches / 15.1 YPC / 8 TDs) are Dallas' current version of "The Triplets" (note: Don't tell that to Troy, Emmitt and Michael). Gallup caught 66 passes last season (16.8 YPC and 6 TDs) and joining Cooper and Gallup on the outside is Oklahoma star WR CeeDee Lamb. There is little doubt that the Cowboys have an offense that can match ANY in the league but that was the case last season too, and the team finished 8-8. was one of the NFL's best last season. The Cowboys are a popular pick to be an immediate Super Bowl contender under McCarthy. Well see. The outlook is far murkier for the Rams, Their roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks. Top to pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton are also gone. QB Jared Goff was drafted 134 picks before Prescott in 2016, but Prescott has passed for more yards (15,778 to 14,219) and TDs (97 to 87) with a higher completion rate (65.8% to 62.4%) and fewer interceptions (36 to 42). However, after McVay's arrival, Goff's played in FOUR playoff games (including A Super Bowl), while Prescott's Cowboys have missed the playoffs TWICE in his four years, winning just ONE postseason game. These teams met in Week 15 last season in Dallas, as the Rams suffered a thorough beatdown, with the Cowboys winning 44-21 and finishing with a 475-289 yard advantage. However, it's notable that Dallas was one-point dog in that contest while here in LA for Week 1, Dallas opened as a three-point road favorite. The Cowboys were just 3-5 on the road last season, winning games at Washington, at the NY Giants and at Detroit. Those teams combined for a 10-37-1 (.219) record in 2019. Dallas lost at playoffs teams New I=Orleans, New England and Philly, with the team's 'revered' offense averaging a pathetic 9.3 PPG. BTW...The Cowboys also lost at the Jets and Bears, who were both 7-9. The home dog 'BARKS' in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-13-20 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
My NFL Week 1 Marquee Play is on the NO Saints at 4:25 ET. This Week 1 contest between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints features the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that's hardly the ONLY storyline, as these particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees is the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady is second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. Brady's won a record SIX Super Bowl titles but for the first time in his career, he will line up under center for a team other than the Patriots. Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp are that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He's brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). WR Mike Evans has averaged 77 catches per season over his first six years, topping 1,000 yards each time plus has 48 TD receptions. RB Jones had a solid second season in 2019, rushing for 724 yards on 4.2 YPG. Tampa has added six-time Pro Bowl selection LeSean McCoy and two-time 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to the backfield mix. There's NO debate that Brady is an upgrade over Winston (5,109 yards with 33 TDs but also 30 INTs) and I expect the Bucs to have an excellent offense in 2020. However, defense IS an issue, as the Bucs allowed 28.1 PPG. More troubling is Tampa Bay's pass D, which allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs. The Saints stumbled out of the Blocks last season (it's become a ritual, lately) but then finished on a 12-2 SU run, going 11-3 ATS. Brees was great (see above) and the Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. He's backed up by Murray, who added 637 yards on 4.4 YPC (note: Murray ran for 1,066 for Oakland in 2015 and scored 12 rushing TDs for the Raiders in 2016). Most 'talk' revolves around Brady and can he lead the Bucs to their first postseason since 2006. However, this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). I'm laying the points with Brees over Brady in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-13-20 | Mets v. Blue Jays -140 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Blue Jays at 3:07 ET. The Mets pounded the Blue Jays 18-1 on Friday but Toronto bounced back Saturday to win 3-2. That sets up the "rubber" match of this three-game series on Sunday afternoon. The regular season ends in two weeks (Sunday, Sep 27) and both teams are fighting for a postseason berth. Toronto's Saturday win allowed the Blue Jays (25-20) to maintain a half-game lead for second place in the AL East (third-place New York Yankees are). As for the 21-25 Mets, they are two games out of a National League wild-card spot. New York sends rookie David Peterson (4-1, 4.26 ERA) to the mound, while Toronto counters with veteran Hyun Jin Ryu (3-1, 3.19 ERA). Peterson had some shoulder inflammation in mid-August and spent the minimum 10 days on the injured list. He's returned to make three appearances, earning a win as a reliever over the Baltimore Orioles Sep 2, pitching four scoreless innings. However, in his two starts, he's lasted just six innings while allowing eight ERs (12.00 ERA). Ryu went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with the Dodgers last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with LA that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but had a red-hot August. He allowed one run or less in all five of his August starts, posting a 1.29 ERA, with Toronto going 4-1. He took a no-decision in that lone team loss, a game the Rays won 2-1 in 10 innings. He open2d Sep with another no-decision but again pitched well (6 IP / 1 ER) and Toronto won 2-1. He tool the mound on :Labor Day the Yankees and allowed six hits (3 HRs) and five ERs in five innings but the Jays came back to win 12-7. The Jays are a MONEY-MAKING 7-2 in his nine starts and Toronto got more good news on Saturday, as shortstop Bo Bichette (sprained right knee) returned to Toronto's lineup from the injured list. He went 1-for-4 in his first game since Aug 15.Bichette missed 27 games, and his return should help a team that recently lost Teoscar Hernandez (oblique strain) and Rowdy Tellez (knee strain). Bichette is batting .354/.382/.646 with 5 HRs and 13 RBI. I'm backing Toronto and RYU. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-13-20 | A's v. Rangers +129 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 129 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Tex Rangers at 2:35 ET. Oakland and Texas wrap up a three-day, four-game series on Sunday afternoon. The first-place A's (29-16) have moved closer to the AL West title with two wins in the first three games of the series, making them 4-2 this season at the Rangers' new home. Meanwhile, the 16-30 Rangers reside in last place in the division and as the saying goes, "they're playoff chances are slim and none, with Slim having just left town!" However, as far as this game is concerned, the pitching matchup favors the Rangers, as Oakland's Frankie Montas (3-3, 5.73 ERA) goes up against Texas ace Lance Lynn (5-2, 2.52 ERA).The Dodgers traded Montas to the Oakland Athletics prior to the 2016 season but he did not get a call to the majors in 2016. He then appeared in 23 games for the A's in 2017 (all in relief). Montas reverted to being a starter, beginning the season at the AAA level. He appeared in 13 games (11 starts) with the A's during the season, compiling a 5–4 record with a 3.88 ERA. However, he started the 2019 season 9–2 with a 2.70 ERA in 15 games (all starts), but was then suspended 80 games without pay for testing positive for a banned substance. Montas opened the current season 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA but after dealing with some back tightness, returned to the rotation to make his first start in nine days back on Aug 18. It's fair to say he showed a little 'rust,' allowing nine ERs on six hits (two HRs) in just 1.2 innings of a 10-1 loss. His next two starts were also 'ugly,' as he allowed 13 hits, five walks and nine ERs in eight innings. That gave him a 16.76 ERA over a three-start run. Montas did bounce back this past Tuesday, winning 4-2 (7 innings) at Houston, allowing two ERs in five innings. Lance Lynn is a nine-year veteran, who has logged 1,400=plus innings over 257 appearances (233 starts) with a 103-70 record (3.54 ERA) in his career. Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. However, after allowing just eight ERs in his first seven starts (with an 0.86 WHIP and .156 BAA against to go along with a 1.59 ERA), he struggled in his next two outings. He lost BOTH games, allowing nine ERs over 12 innings (6.75 ERA). However, Lyn was "back in form" this past Tuesday, beating the Angels 7-1 (7 IP / 4 hits / 1 ER). Look closely at Lynn's 2020 numbers, compared to his lifetime ones. His 2.52 ERA is a FULL run lower (3.54), his WHIP is 0.98 (1.29 LT) and his BAA is .182, 61 points better than his LT mark (.243). went 10-1 (3.50 ERA) at home last season and is 4-1 (2.00 ERA) at home here in 2020. This home dog 'BARKS' loudly in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-13-20 | Browns v. Ravens -8 | 6-38 | Win | 100 | 443 h 21 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. The Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens will be forever be linked in NFL history. Cleveland owner Art Modell announced he was relocating the Browns to Baltimore and after negotiations and legal battles, an agreement was reached where Modell would be allowed to take his personnel to Baltimore as an expansion franchise (Ravens) but would leave Cleveland the Browns' colors, logos and heritage for a reactivated Browns franchise that would take the field no later than 1999. The Browns were reactivated in 1999 but the Browns have produced just TWO winning seasons in these last 21 years, with ONE postseason appearance (2002). Meanwhile, the Ravens were able to post their first winning season in 2000 (team's fifth year), capping the season by winning Super Bowl XXXV. John Harbaugh was given his first-ever NFL head coaching job in 2008 and led the Ravens to the postseason in each of his first five seasons. The number five was again 'magic,' as Baltimore won its second Super Bowl in the 2012 season (SB XLVII). The Browns open the 2020 season with a new head coach, as Freddie Kitchens lasted just ONE season. Kevin Stefanski signed a five-year contract to become the 18th head coach of the Cleveland Browns on January 13, 2020 (was Minnesota's OC in 2019 and this marks his first head coaching job). As for the Ravens, Harbaugh is still around, entering his 13th season as Baltimore's head coach. QB Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looking promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPA / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). The Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites. Jackson passed for 365 yards (59 attempts!) and ran for 143 yards but his three TOs (two INTs) was the 'story' of the game (along with Tennessee RB Henry shredding the Baltimore D for 195 rushing yards). I expect the Ravens to be highly motivated in Week 1 and the Ravens should also well-remember that the Browns won here in Baltimore 40-25 (as 7.5-point dogs) in Week 4 of the 2019 season. That was Baltimore's LAST loss of the regular season, as the Ravens won their final 12 games, including a Week 16 rematch in Cleveland by the score of 31-15 (as 9.5-point favorites). DO NOT ignore the fact that the Browns last won a Week 1 game back in 2004, losing 13 in a row before playing a 21-21 tie in 2018, but then resuming their losing ways with a 43-13 home loss in Week 1 of 2019 against the Titans. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-13-20 | Jets v. Bills OVER 39.5 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "Featured" Total of the Week is on NYJ/Buf Over at 1:00 ET. Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoff again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East. The Jets last made the postseason in 2010 and have posted just ONE winning season (10-6 in 2015) in that nine-year span. Adam Gase went 7-9 in his first season as the Jets' head coach but he seems to think the jets "are close." So does Le'Veon Bell. He says he's "night and day" ahead of last season in terms of his grasp of the offense. He believes the same is true for every player, especially QB Sam Darnold. It's getting to that "now or never" point of Darnold's career and many still believe he can be a quality starting QB in the NFL (we'll see). We KNOW what Bell can do at his best. He had 1,361 rushing yards and 85 catches in 2014, 1,268 rushing yards and 94 catches in 2015 (12 games) and 1,291 rushing yards and 107 catches in 2017 (all for Pittsburgh). He was limited to just six games in 2016 and then sat out all of 2018, before signing with the Jets, I believe New York's offense will be greatly improved in 2020 but the defense some key players on defense with safety Adams being traded to Seattle and LB Mosley choosing to opt out. Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen, like Darnold, was part of the same 2017 NHL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round. He's not a prolific passer but he's a real leader and has produced (unlike Darnold). Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made excellent strides and has become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. A real bonus this year for the offense is the addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs. The ageless Frank Gore is gone at RB (actually, he's on the Jets) but FAU rookie Devin Singletary was the "featured back" down the stretch, finishing with 751 yards on 5.1 YPC. The buffalo offense averaged only PPG in 2019 but watch that average 'soar' here in 2020. Buffalo is 11-4 ATS in openers and the Jets have failed to cover 10 of their last 13 against AFC East opponents. Lay the points? Maybe an OK idea but this is the lowest over/under of Week 1, opening at 39.5 (second-lowest opened at 42. I expect Darnold to want to "show well" against Allen plus I'm 'buying' Bell's optimism about his team. As for the Bills, don't be surprised if this year's offense averages 5-7 points higher than the 19.6 PPG Buffalo averaged in 2019. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings -1 | Top | 43-34 | Loss | -128 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC Central) is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikes to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. He knows a non-postseason year in 2020 will NOT be acceptable. Green Bay head coach Matt LeFleur had quite a 'rookie year' with the Packers in 2019 (first-ever head coaching job), as he led the Packers to a 13-3 record and a spot in the NFC championship game (forgettable 37-20 loss at San Francisco in a contest that was NOT as close as the final score). The Packers beat the Vikings in BOTH 2019 meetings, 21-16 in Week 2 at Green Bay and 23-10 at Minnesota in Week 16. The two NFC Central rivals open their respective 2020 seasons on Sunday in Minnesota. Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th). Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. RB Dalvin Cook had a breakout season in 2019 (1,135 yards with 13 TDs plus 63 catches), despite missing the last two regular season contests. Minnesota loses outstanding WR Stefon Diggs (traded to Buffalo) but Adam Thielen is back healthy and don't forget, he had 91 catches in 2017 and 113 in 2018. Also, expect a big season from TE Kyle Rudolph (39 catches / 6 TDs). Zimmer's 'baby' has been the Minnesota defense but wholesale changes have been made with both DL and DB positions. Cousins was terrific in 2019 BUT was just terrible in his two meetings with Green Bay, as he had his two-lowest passer ratings of the year at 52.9 and 58.8.Let n]me add that Dalvin Cook was not able to play in that Week 16 loss. However, here's the rub. How badly do you think Minnesota wants this game? Consider this. For the first time in the franchise's 60 seasons, the Vikings have their opener scheduled at home against the rival Packers, an immediate opportunity to avenge their decisive defeat at U.S. Bank Stadium on Dec. 23, 2019, that clinched the NFC North for Green Bay (Vikings were held to 7 FDs and 139 yards!). Rodgers is Rodgers but he's just 6-6 in his career at Minnesota plus the Vikings are on a 22-8-1 ATS run as a home favorite. Lay the 'small' number! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-12-20 | Coastal Carolina v. Kansas -3.5 | Top | 38-23 | Loss | -113 | 150 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on Kansas at 10:00 ET. Coastal Carolina visited Lawrence last season on Sep 7 (2nd of the season for both schools) with the Chanticleers upsetting the Jayhawks, 12-7 as a seven-point underdog. It was hardly a classic, as neither team gained 300 yards (Coastal outgained Kansas 291-280). Kansas took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter on a 41-yard TD run but NEVER scored again. CJ Marable caught a 20-yard TD pass in the second quarter for Coast Carolina (miss PAT) and then added a short TD run midway into the 3rd quarter (failed two-point conversion). Marable finished with 148 rushing and scored both TDs for the Chanticleers. There was no scoring the rest of the way, as Coastal Carolina held on for the five-point win, despite THREE missed FGs by PK Massimo Biscardi. Coastal Carolina was scheduled to host Kansas on Sep 26 of 2020 but COVID-19 has played havoc with the schedules of schools that are playing this season. The two schools kept the meeting but Coastal Carolina has to return to Lawrence again, for this meeting. That HAS to be an advantage for Kansas, which has suffered through a decade of mediocracy fostered by David Beaty, Charlie Weis, and Turner Gill. Les Miles went 112-32 (.778) in 11 full seasons as LSU's head coach (was fired after a 2-2 start in his 12th year), leading the Tigers to 11 bowls and two national championship games (won it all in 2007 but his 13-0 team lost to Alabama in 2011). Miles is tasked with changing the losing culture at Lawrence and said after last year's loss to Coastal Carolina that it was a game the Jayhawks should have won. "I'm not happy," Miles said. "This is not how I saw it going. This is not how our team saw it going. Our guys played with their hearts on their sleeves and did everything they could possibly do to win this game." RB C.J. Marable (1085 YR on 5.3 YPC with 11 TDs / 38 catches with three TDs) will again be the focal point of the Chanticleers' offense plus benefits from four OL returning. Payton and Carpenter both made starts at QB last season and while both return, redshirt freshman McCall may push for a starting job. Coastal Carolina allowed 30.5 PPG (85th) and the defense may not be any better in 2020. Kansas sure has its weaknesses but junior RB Pooka Williams (1,061 YR / 5.3 YPC) is KU's first offensive player to earn 1st-team All-Big 12 status in back-to-back seasons. QB Carter Stanley (24 TDs / 11 INTs) graduated and senior MacVittle (who red-shirted LY) is expected to play. The good news is that the team's top-two receivers return in Parchment (65 catches / 7 TDs) and Robinson (45 catches / 8 TDs).The Kansas D ranked 120th in scoring D (36.1 PPG) and 122nd in total D (475.2 YPG), which is fairly typical of that unit's performance the last decade. Most close to program say that Kansas is probably two recruiting classes away from respectability but "The Hat" knows how to coach and knows more than a little about "revenge games." The Jayhawks will play only 10 games in 2020 and the school's nine-game conference schedule begins in two weeks (Sep 26). A loss here would be a devastating way to open. I'm laying the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-12-20 | Reds v. Cardinals -125 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET. There were more than a few that tabbed the Cincinnati Reds as a 'dark horse' to challenge for the NL Central title in 2020 and at least, be a STRONG contender in the expanded playoff-field. However, the 20-25 Reds sit in fourth-place in the NL Central, 5 1/2 games back of the division-leading Cubs. The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and we're off the field for 17 days. However, the Cards have kept their postseason hopes alive, as they currently find themselves three games off the division pace but also right in the thick of the playoff field. St Louis is currently in second-place in the NL Central and ALL three 2nd-place teams get a postseason berth, plus the two teams with the next best records (winning percentage!) earn wild card spots. The Reds took last night's game 3-1, as Luis Castillo suddenly found his 2019 form, pitching a two-hit CG. Cincy manager David Bell has opted to schedule rookie Tejay Antone (0-1, 2.49 ERA) for the start on Saturday, skipping over Anthony DeSclafani, who has failed to last more than 4.1 innings in his past four starts. That CAN"T be a bad idea, as DeSclafani (1-2, 7.20 ERA) is 0-1 with a 10.13 ERA in two starts against the Cardinals this season. As for Antone, he's made eight appearances (three starts) in 2020, allowing just one ER in each of his three starts (2.03 ERA / team is 1-2). Getting the nod for St Louis is Dakota Hudson (2-2, 3.19 ERA). He made 26 relief appearances for the Cards in 2018 but 32 of his 33 appearances in 2019 came in a starting role. He and Flaherty help lead the Cards to the NL Central title, with Hudson going 16-7 with a 3.35 ERA. A closer look reveals that the Cards went just 3-5 in his first eight stars but then with 19-5 over his last 24! The Cards lost Hudson's first three starts of 2020, despite him posting a 1.84 ERA. However, they've won his last three, even though his ERA in that span is 3,71. However, the bottom line is that he owns a 0.77 ERA in two starts against the Reds this season (13-2 KW ratio) and is 4-0 with a 2.82 ERA in seven career appearances (six starts / Cards are 5-1) against the Reds. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-12-20 | Angels v. Rockies -122 | 5-2 | Loss | -122 | 12 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Col Rockies at 8:10 ET. The Los Angeles Angels may have MLB's best player in Mike Trout but they will almost assuredly be sitting out the postseason again, even with an expanded 16-team field. LA owned the AL's worst record on the morning of Sep 3 at 12-25 but suddenly ripped off FIVE straight wins. However, the 'euphoria' hasn't lasted, as after Friday night's 8-4 loss at Coors Field, LA checks in at 18-28, 6 1/2 games back of the AL's final wild card spot. The Colorado Rockies are 21-23 and have no chance to catch the first-place Dodgers and little chance to catch the second-place Padres but the NL wild card race in a mad-dash and the Rockies are 'still breathing,' as of now. The Angels will hand the ball to Jaime Barria (0-0, 3.38 ERA) and the Rockies counter with Kyle Freeland (2-1, 3.60 ERA). Barria made 26 starts for LA in 2018 and went 10-9 with a 3.412 ERA (he led the team in wins that season). However, he split time between the minors and majors in 2019, making a more modest 19 appearances (just 13 starts) with "the big club." He was AWFUL, going 4-10 with a 6.42 ER and 1.44 WHIP. He wasn't in the starting rotation at the beginning of this season but found an opening thanks to the club's pitching problems. He's only made four appearances (two starts), with the Angels being the losing team in THREE of his four appearances. Freeland went 11-11 (4.10 ERA) as a rookie in 2017 and then had a breakout 2018 season. He was 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA, as the Rockies went 23-10 in his 33 starts. However, he was AWFUL in 2019, going 3-11 with a 6.73 ERA & 1.58 WHIP with Colorado going 8-14 in his 22 starts. So what's up in 2020? Freeland has pitched at least six innings in SEVEN of his nine starts, allowing no more than three runs in each of those seven. Freeland comes in off an excellent start his last time out (Labor Day), pitching six scoreless innings vs the Padres. However, he took a no-decision in a game Colorado lost 1-0. Freeland is the more steady pitcher and as noted, Colorado can still see a 'light at the end of the tunnel.' That's a luxury the Angels don't have, as Mike Trout is just over two weeks away from becoming a "full-time father!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-12-20 | Astros v. Dodgers -142 | 7-5 | Loss | -142 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Dodgers at 8:15 ET. After a rare Friday off day for both teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Houston Astros for a brief two-game series starting in the first meeting between the teams since an emotionally-charged matchup on July 29.The Astros beat the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series but when Houston's sign-stealing was revealed, in quite naturally left the Dodgers (and Yankees) with some bitter feelings. That led to July 29th's flare-up. Now on to Saturday's contest. The Houston Astros visit Dodger Stadium "in a funk." The Astros opened the 2020 season having won THREE straight AL West titles, while winning 101, 103 and 107 games, respectively from 2017-2019. However, the Astros ;limp' into LA having lost 13 of their last 20 games. They are 22-23 overall, SEVEN games back of the first-place A's and barely holding on to a postseason berth. Meanwhile, the Dodgers own MLB's best record (32-13) and also own the best run-differential of any team at plus-98. However, the Dodgers are facing some starting pitching concerns. Walker Buehler went on the 10-day injured list because of recurring blister issues and fellow right-hander Dustin May left Thursday's outing with a left foot contusion after he was hit by a line drive. Considering that the Dodgers also shipped right-hander Ross Stripling to the Toronto Blue Jays at the Aug 31 trade deadline, they are suddenly short some arms with the stretch drive to the regular season having already arrived. Taking the mound tonight will be a pair of left-handers, Framber Valdez (3-3, 3.61 ERA) of Houston and Julio Urias (3-0, 3.86 ERA) of LA. Valdez had looked solid this season, BEFORE his last outing on Se6 at the Angels. He pitched seven innings but allowed EIGHT earned runs in the 9-5 loss. Valdez gave up three runs on four hits over 4.1 innings to the Dodgers on July 28 and took the loss. It's his only career appearance vs LA. Urais is making his ninth start of 2020 and is 3-3 (team is 4-4). A closer look reveals that in his three road starts, his ERA is 5.40 and opponents are batting .300. However, in his five starts in Dodger Stadium, his ERA is 3.16 and his BAA is .229. He has never faced the Astros. "Grudges" aside, LA is just the WAY better team right now, as Houston's slumping and after being MLB best road team over the last three seasons (157-86, .646), Houston owns one of MLB's worst road record at 6-17 (.261). Why would Houston's 'luck' change here in LA, where the Dodgers are 15-7, after going 59-22 at home in 2019. Dodgers win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-12-20 | Western Kentucky +12.5 v. Louisville | Top | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Western Ky at 8:00 ET. Western Ky began the transition to NCAA Division I FBS as an Independents, in 2007 and was considered a reclassifying school for both the 2007 and 2008 seasons due to NCAA rules. Western Ky QB legend Willie Taggart returned to his alma mater as head football coach in 2010. The Hilltoppers went 2-10 in their first year under Taggart but he is credited with getting WKU's football program back on track after posting back to back 7–5 regular seasons in 2011 and 2012. The school wasn't invited to a bowl in 20011 but in 2012 the school's first FBS-level bowl game invite came the Little Caesar's Bowl. Taggart left WKU to accept the head football coach position at South Florida, prior to that bowl contest. Bobby Petrino stayed for one season but then Jeff Brohm posted an outstanding 30–10 record from 2014-16. He left for Purdue and Mike Sanford would last two disappointing seasons. Tyson Helton got the job for 2019 and he won C-USA Coach of the Year (9-4 season, including a bowl win). Louisville has rich FB tradition but after Lamar Jackson left for the NFL, the team flopped to 2-10 in 2018. However, Scott Satterfield left Appalachian St and restored some glory to program, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St..15 starters return, including QB MicaIe Cunningham (2,065 passing yards & 22-5 ratio plus 482 YR / 6 TDs), leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 RY / 5.8 YPC / 9 TDs) and WR Tutu Atwal (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs). The defense HAS to get better, as Louisville allowed 33.4 PPG (109th) on 439.9 YPG (102nd). Western Ky has 16 starters back including NINE from a defense that allowed just 20.1 PPG (22nd) on 335,5 YPG (24th). The unit's top-6 top tacklers are back. RB Gaej Walker is back after gaining 1,208 yards on 5.0 YPC with eight TDs. Starting at QB will be Maryland transfer Tyrell Pigrome (7 career starts). These teams met in Nashville last season, with Louisville winning handily, 38-21. However, Western KY finished the season on an 8-2 run after that loss, including a 23-20 bowl win over Western Michigan. What has me playing on the Hilltoppers here is that they went 4-0 ATS as a road underdog last season, giving them a two-year run of 8-1-1 as road underdogs. That's an 89% winning situation. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-12-20 | Charlotte v. Appalachian State OVER 59 | Top | 20-35 | Loss | -105 | 74 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Charlotte/App St Over at 12:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 8:00 ET Wednesday evening. | |||||||
09-11-20 | Celtics -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* 2nd Round Game of the Year is on the Bos Celtics at 9:00 ET. The Toronto Raptors won the franchise's first-ever NBA title behind the spectacular play AND leadership of Kawhi Leonard. However, Kawhi left for the Clippers and starting SG Danny Green left for the Lakers. The cupboard was hardly left bare though, plus Nick Nurse won Coach of the Year honors in 2019, his FIRST as an NBA head coach. The Raptors finished this year's interrupted regular season with a 53-19 record, giving them the East's second-seed (note: Toronto owned a better regular season record than ALL Western Conference teams. The Raptors drew a tough second round matchup in the third-seed Celtics, who have given Toronto "more trouble" this season than ANY other team. Toronto promptly fell behind 0-2 in its best-of-seven Eastern Conference semifinal against Boston and few would have imagined the series going seven games. However, that's EXACTLY where we are as of Friday. Toronto 'stole' Game 3 with a winning three-pointer at the buzzer and then took Game 4, 100-93. An angered Boston team routed the Raptors111-89 in Game 5 but Toronto stayed 'alive' with a thrilling 125-122 double-OT win in Game 6. Reserve SG Norman Powell scored 15 of his 23 points in the OT periods. His three-point play with 38.8 seconds left gave the Raptors a four-point lead and his free throws with 5.0 seconds remaining helped Toronto hold on. Kyle Lowry was brilliant in scoring 33 points in 53 minutes. Joining Lowry in playing 50-plus minutes in Game 6 were Siakam (54 minutes), VanVleet (51) and OG Anunoby (50). FOUR of Boston's five starters also logged 50-plus minutes, with Brown adding 31 & 16, Tatum 29-14-9 and Smart (23-11-10), who recorded his second-career triple-double. A name you just didn't read was that of PG Kemba Walker. He played 52 minutes but was just AWFUL, scoring only FIVE points on 2 of 11 shooting. "Just a bad offensive night for me, terrible offensive night for me," Walker said. You think? I'm a big fan of the Raptors and with the top-seeded Bucks KO'd already, Toronto may just think its path to a return trip to the NBA Finals is wide-open (note: The winner of this series better be VERY afraid of the red-hot Heat). However, in watching and reviewing this series, I have concluded that Boston IS the better team. The Raptors are 7-0 in Orlando against all other opponents but just 3-4 vs the Celtics. In fact, after Boston's 111-89 Game 5 win, the Celtics owned FOUR wins over the Raptors by 15 or more points this season while the rest of the NBA, combined, has ONE! Lowry (36.9& overall / 30.0% on threes) and VanVleet (33.7% / 29.8%) have NOT shot well most of this series and I wouldn't want to rely on them here. One could argue that Tatum (23.5-10.0-5.0) and Brown (20.7 & 8.8) have been the two-best players in the series plus Smart (12.8-5.4-5.8) has started the last nine games (for Hayward), including posting a line of 15.7-6.7-5.0 vs Toronto. As for Walker, after a subpar showing in Game 4, he responded with 21 points on 8-of-15 shooting in the blowout victory in Game 5. Want a bonus prop bet? Take the OVER in Walker's posted point total for Game 7. More importantly, make a "Big Play" on the Celtics in this Game 7. Not for nothing, the Celtics are 23-9 all-time in Game 7s. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-11-20 | Reds v. Cardinals +106 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET. There were more than a few that tabbed the Cincinnati Reds as a 'dark horse' to challenge for the NL Central title in 2020 and at least, be a STRONG contender in the expanded playoff-field. However, after the Reds lost to the Chicago Cubs 8-5 last night (in a game that dragged past midnight because of a rain delay at the outset), the 19-25 Reds sit in fourth-place in the NL Central, 6 1/2 games back of the decision-leading Cubs. The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and we're off the field for 17 days. However, the Cards have kept their postseason hopes alive and coming off of a doubleheader split against the Detroit Tigers on Thursday, find themselves three games off the division pace but also right in the thick of the playoff field. St Louis is currently in second-place in the NL Central and ALL there 2nd-place teams get a postseason berth, plus the two teams with the next best records (winning percentage!) earn wild card spots. The Cards host the Reds for this three-game weekend series, which begins a 13-game stretch against NL Central foes. FIVE games in three days against Milwaukee (two DHs) comes next (Mon-Wed) and then FIVE games in four days with Pittsburgh (1 DH) follows Thu-Sun. The Reds will send Luis Castillo (1-5, 3.95 ERA) to the mound tonight, while the Cards will counter with Adam Wainwright (4-0, 2.68 ERA). Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo will be getting his first start against the Tigers. Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, Sorry Luis! He FINALLY got his FIRST win of 2020 in his last outing, in his EIGHTH start of the season. Castillo allowed two runs on seven hits while striking out eight in six innings as the Reds beat the Pittsburgh Pirates 4-2. He had posted a 4.09 ERA through his first seven starts of 2020, with the Reds losing SIX of those seven. St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. The Cards won Wainwright's first three starts of 2020 (2.00 ERA) but he then took a no-decision in a 5-4 StL loss (7 IP / 4 ERs) on Aug 25. Wainwright turned back the clock with a complete game on his 39th birthday as the Cardinals beat the Cleveland Indians 7-2 on Aug 30 (Wainwright threw a four-hitter for his 23rd career complete game and first in four years)! He then held the Cubs to two runs on six hits and one walk in 6.1 innings of a 4-2 victory last Saturday (Aug 5). I have NO idea why this is basically a pick'em game! Castillo has been a bust, while Wainwright has built off his strong September finish of 2019 (Cards are 10-2 in his regular season starts since Sep 1 of 2019). Also of note, the Cards own a plus-27 run differential on the season, while the Reds are minus-27. This game is rated a toss-up? I just DON'T get it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-10-20 | Reds -132 v. Cubs | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -132 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 8:15 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Thursday morning. | |||||||
09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets +5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Hou Rockets at 7:00 ET. Houston's "small ball" won out in Game 1 of this series, as the team's excellent trio of guards dominated the game. Harden scored 36 points, Westbrook 24-9-6 and Gordon 23. Here's the 'autopsy.' Houston pulled away in Game 1, outscoring the Lakers 27-18 in the fourth quarter to lead by as many as 19 points in a comfortable 112-97 victory. Houston held the Lakers to 97 points, 42.2 percent shooting from the floor, including 11-of-38 from three-point range (28.9%). The rebounding numbers were even (41-41), a big win considering the Rockets are so undersized plus shot 27 FTs to LA's 19, the result of being more aggressive. The Rockets also scored 27 points off of 15 Lakers TOs. "I think it's the speed," LBJ said after the game. "They play with a lot of speed both offensively and defensively. And you can watch it on film and you can see it on film; until you get out there and get a feel for it [you cannot comprehend it]. That's what we did tonight. We got a feel for their speed, and we should be fully aware of that going into Game 2." LA took a 67-51 lead at half in Game 2 but Houston won the 3rd quarter 41023 to take a two-point lead into the 4th. LA prevailed by holding the Rockets to 17 points in the final period to win (AND cover), 117-109. The Lakers shot 56,6% as a team in Game 2. Game 3 was again close, as the teams were tied entering the 4th, However, the Lakers again won the decisive final period (30-20) to win 112-102. Again, LA shot 55.1% as a team, overcoming Harden's 33 points and Westbrook's 30. The Rockets haven't been able to beat the Lakers or Warriors come playoff time in recent years and losing Game 4 to fall behind 3-1 in this series, will surely be a 'death nell.' The Rockets played extremely well offensively for lengthy stretches this series but momentum has turned in the fourth quarter in each of the last two games, as the Lakers' defense has held Houston to just 17 and 20 points, respectively. Here's the two key stretches in those games. Trailing 92-90 entering the final period in Game 2, the Lakers held Houston to 2-for-8 shooting and forced two turnovers during a 14-4 run to take the lead. Then, with the score tied at 82 at the close of the third quarter of Game 3, the Rockets missed 4 of 6 shot attempts while committing three turnovers during the decisive stretch that fueled a 17-5 Lakers rally. Houston needs Harden, Westbrook and Gordon to reprise their Game 1 efforts offensively and for the entire Houston team to play defensively like it did in Game 1, as well. LBJ and LBY make one fabulous duo but the rest of the Lakers can easily 'go in the tank. NOT sure Houston can win THREE of the next four and take this series but Game 4 is clearly a "MUST-WIN" situation for them. I'm taking the points but predict a SU Houston win. Remember, LA's three starters (other than AD and LBJ) scored a combined 14 points in Game 2 and just EIGHT points in Game 3. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-10-20 | Astros v. A's -134 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Oak A's at 3:40 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 'unique' 2020 season (60-game schedule) having won THREE straight AL West tiles (101, 103 & 107 wins) and two World Series appearances (win in 2017 and lost in 2019). The Oakland Athletics had won 97 games in both 2018 and 2019 but each time, lost in the winner-take-all wild card game. Here's where the AL situation as of Thursday morning, Sep 10. Houston opened just 7-10 but an EIGHT-game winning streak got them to 15-10. Houston was six games over .500 through games played Sep 3 (21-15) but then suffered a four-game sweep at the Angels over Labor Day weekend and have lost THREE of the first four here in Oakland in this five-game series, The 22-22 Astros are now 5 1/2 games back of the A's as the teams meet Thursday afternoon in Oakland. The A's opened 22-10 but then saw SIX games postponed from Aug 27 through Sep 3, losing both ends of a doubleheader to the Astros on Aug 29, the only games the team played during the above-mentioned eight-day span. Oakland returned to the field on Sep 4 and lost TWO of three to San Diego, before taking THREE of four vs Houston, with Thursday's series final going today. Houston and Oakland square off today at 3:40 ET in the series finale, with the 26-15 A's leading the 22-22 Astros by 5 1/2 games. Both teams know that if the A's win, the Astros will be 6 1/2 games back of the A's with just 18 to play. Houston wasted a big-time effort from rookie Luis Garcia in his first big-league start on Wednesday (five scoreless innings while allowing just ONE hit) but the A's would come back from a 2-0 deficit to win 3-2 on a walk-off single in the 9th. Houston is hoping for a similar effort from another young right-hander tonight, Jose Urquidy (0-0, 4.91 ERA). That may be asking "too much," as Urquidy has made just 10 career appearances (eight starts), with a 4.03 ERA. Seam Manea win 12 games in back-to-back seasons for Oakland in 2017 and 2018 (no-hit the Red Sox on 4/21/18) but was limited to just FIVE starts in 2019 after rehabbing from shoulder surgery that took place in Sep of 2018. However, he made his 2019 season debut in September and went 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP (30 Ks in 29 .2 innings. Big things were expected in 2020 but he flopped in his first four starts, going 0-2 (team was 1-3) with a 9.00 ERA. However, the late 2019 Manaea has emerged in his last four starts, going 3-0 (team is 40-0) with a 2.21 ERA. Manaea has not had much luck vs Houston in his 12 career starts (he's 2-5 and the A's are 3-9) but note his ERA of 3.48 points to the fact that the Astros have not exactly 'lit him up!' The Astros were MLB's best road team from 2017-2019, going 157-86 (.646) but that was THEN and this is NOW. Houston is 6-16 (.273) on the road in 2020, ranking them among MLB's worst road teams this season. Meanwhile, the A's opened the current season having gone 102-60 (.630) in home games the last two seasons and are playing even better (percentage-wise) here at home in 2020, going 17-7 (.708). More road woes again here for Houston. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-09-20 | Yankees -130 v. Blue Jays | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the NY Yankees at 6:37 ET. Before the start of the 2020 season was postponed in March, the Dodgers and Yankees were favored to meet in the 2020 World Series. Following the announcement of a 60-game season, the World Series title odds were released by various sportsbooks. At Bovada, the Dodgers and Yankees were co-favorites at +375. The adjusted season win totals for the 60-game season (teams must play 59 games) had the Dodgers at 37 wins and the Yankees at 36.5. So where do we stand as of the morning of Sep 9? The Dodgers own MLB's best record (31-12) and lead the NL West by 4 1/2 games, with their .721 winning percentage putting them on pace to win 43 games. As for the Yankees, they are a hard-to-believe 21-21, 6 1/2 games out of first and barely holding on to the AL's final wild card spot. The team's .500 record naturally projects to a 30-win season. Who'da thunk it! The Yankees opened 9-2 and were 16-6 through Aug 17, before losing SEVEN in a row. a 4-1 stretch followed but New York has now lost SEVEN of eight, including FIVE straight. Doing the math, since the team's 16-6 start, the Yankees are 5-15. Meanwhile, The Blue Jays were not allowed to play their home games in Toronto, so they relocated to Buffalo for their home games. Coming off a 67-95 (.414) season in 2019 (36 games behind the first-place Yankees), NOTHING was expected of Toronto in 2020. However, the Blue Jays were 7-11 around the same time the Yankees were 16-6 but have gone 17-7 since Aug 17. The Jays have won the first two contests of this three-game series and look to complete a sweep tonight. Toronto is currently 24-18, just 3 1/2 games back of the Rays and THREE games up on the Yankees) Taking the mound on Wednesday will be New York rookie Deivi Garcia (0-1, 338 ERA) and Toronto veteran Tanner Roark (2-1, 5.74 ERA). Garcia made his major-league debut on Aug 30 with six innings in a no-decision against the New York Mets in which he allowed four hits and one unearned run while striking out six (Yankees won 5-2). He then allowed four runs and five hits on Friday in 4.2 innings to take the loss against the Baltimore Orioles. Roark spent his first six seasons in Washington before being traded prior to the 2019 season. He split last year between Cincinnati and Oakland while reaching double digits in victories for the FOURTH time in the last six seasons. He's made seven starts in 2020 and while he's just 2-1, it should be noted that the Jays have won SIX of his seven starts. However, the question to be asked is why? Roark entered the current season 74-64 in his career with a 3.71 ERA. Here in 2020, his ERA is 5.74, his WHIP 1.79 and his BAA is an 'ugly' .317. Comparing his 2020 stats to his career numbers find that his 2020 ERA is about TWO full runs higher than his career ERA (3.76), his 2020 WHIP is 0.54 higher than his career (1.25) and that brutal .317 BAA is 64 points higher than his career BAA. Yes, Judge and Stanton remain out but I see the remaining Yankee bats should have little trouble getting to Roark, whose current 2020 season has been a 'mirage." Take the rook! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -160 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Vegas Golden Knights at 8:10 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Tuesday morning. | |||||||
09-08-20 | Angels v. Rangers +118 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 118 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The Texas Rangers welcome the LA Angels to Arlington Tuesday night for the opener of a three-game series. Texas enters on a SIX-game losing streak and at 13-27, pretty much has resigned itself that its season will end in late September (currently sits 7 1/2 games out of a playoff position). The Angels may have felt the same way back on the morning of Sep3, as they were just 12-25. However, LA has won FIVE in a row since Sep e, including a four-game home sweep of the Astros. The Angels are now 17-25 and are 4 1/2 games back in the postseason race. Tuesday's pitching matchup features LA's Andrew Heaney (3-2, 3.89 ERA) squaring off against the Rangers' Lance Lynn (4-2, 2.67 ERA). Heaney was the Angels' Opening Day starter but had failed to last at least six innings in any of his first six starts, with an ERA of 5.52 (Angels went 1-5 in those starts). However, he's turned things around his last two outings with back-to-back wins in which he's allowed just one ER over 14.2 innings (0.61 ERA). His ERA on the season has dropped from 5.52 in those first six starts to 3.89. Lance Lynn is a nine-year veteran, who has logged EXACTLY 1,400 innings over 256 appearances (232 starts) with a 102-70 record (3.55 ERA) in his career. Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. However, after allowing just eight ERs in his first seven starts (with an 0.86 WHIP and .156 BAA against to go along with a 1.59 ERA), he's struggled in his last two outings. He's lost BOTH games, allowing nine ERs over 12 innings (6.75 ERA). The Angels enter on a five-game winning streak with Heaney posting an 0.61 ERA in his last two starts, while the Rangers come in on a six-game slide, with their ONLY pitcher of note struggling in his last two (6.75 ERA). Is the obvious play on LA? Maybe but I have little faith in Heaney recent two-game surge plus the Rangers have hit him well, as Heaney owns a 5.28 ERA in 11 career starts vs Texas, including a loss this season when he allowed five runs and eight hits in just 3.2 innings back on Aug 9. Lynn went 10-1 (3.50 ERA) at home last season and is 3-1 (2.17 ERA) at home here in 2020. This home dog 'BARKS' loudly in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-20 | Heat v. Bucks +3 | Top | 103-94 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Bucks at 6:30 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks owned the NBA's best regular season record in the 2019-20 season (56-17) for the second straight year (went 60-22 last season). The Bucks fell in the Eastern Conference finals last season to Toronto, losing FOUR straight after taking a 2-0 lead. The Bucks looked disinterested in the Orlando bubble, as they finished their eight-game schedule 3-5 and were then shocked by the eighth-seed Magic in Game 1 of their first round series. However, the Magic really never had the talent to stay with the Bucks, who promptly won FOUR in a row with an average margin of victory of 14.0 PPG. The Miami Heat, who finished 12 games worse (44-29) than Milwaukee in the regular season, swept the Pacers 4-0 in the first round and then shocked the Bucks in Game 1 of this series. Many (most?) felt like it would be no more than a blip, with Milwaukee 'righting the ship' much like they did vs the Magic. That was NOT the case though, as Miami won Games 2 and 3 as well, taking a 3-0 lead. All are aware that no NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 playoff series deficit to win but the Bucks 'gutted out' a 1118-115 OT win in Game 4, to extend the series at least ONE more game. Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo injured his ankle in Game 3 and his status was uncertain entering Game 4. Giannis would score 19 points in just 11 minutes but he re-injured the ankle and never returned after leaving in the second quarter. Milwaukee prevailed behind Khris Middleton's 36 points (8 rebounds and 8 assists), who played 48 minutes. Milwaukee starters Lopez (42) and Bledsoe (40) also reached the 40-minutes of playing time mark, while Miami players felt as if they 'let their guard down' after Giannis left the game. That sets the stage for Game 5. Miami is well-coached by Erik Spoelstra (he's VERY under-appreciated) and all five starters are averaging in double digits, while rookie Herro comes off the bench to chip in 14.8-4.5-3.0. Swingman Butler (22.4-5.0-4.0) and PG Dragic (21.6-4.5-6.0) have been superb, while the ever-improving PF Adebayo(16.6-12.4-5.1) leads the team in rebounding AND assists. Make no mistake, this Miami team is for real. However, I'm still NOT ready to concede the series to the Heat. If Giannis can go, Miami also has five double-digit scorers (four starters plus backup Hill off the bench) and solid depth off the bench. Obviously, the health of Antetokounmpo remains the primary storyline. The Bucks have listed him as questionable for Game 5 and it will almost assuredly be a game-time decision. "We know he's laying it on the line out there for us," Middleton said of Antetokounmpo after his terrific Game 4 effort. "His ankle's already in bad shape. ...Hopefully, we'll have him back again for the next game. But, if not, we still have to play as hard as we can. We've got to fight every night to keep on playing." I'm clearly hoping that Giannis plays but I'm on the Bucks, either way. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-20 | Twins -128 v. Cardinals | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Min Twins at 3:15 ET. The 17-16 St Louis Cardinals host the 26-17 Minnesota Twins in an interleague doubleheader on Tuesday. Both teams won their respective Central Division titles last season, St Louis in the NL and Minnesota in the AL. Both are currently in second-place in those divisions, St Louis 2 1/2 games off the pace in the NL Central while Minnesota is just ONE game back in the AL Central. The Cards opened 2-3 but a COVID-19 outbreak sidelined the team for 17 days. The Cards' schedule will be jammed-packed down the stretch but enter this three-game series having won SIX of nine. The Twins opened the season 10-2 and were still 20-12 the morning of Aug 25, when they went on a SIX-game losing streak. However, Minnesota is back on track entering this contest, having won SIX of its last seven. The Starting pitchers for Game 1 of this twin-bill will be Jose Berrios (3-3, 4.29 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (0-1, 14.73 ERA). Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, he's had a disappointing current season, as the Twins are just 4-4 in his eight starts. That said, Berrios looked like his "old self" in his last outing, recording an 8-1 victory over the Chicago White Sox. He allowed just one run on three hits in six innings, while striking out EIGHT batters. Carlos Martinez is yet another example of St Louis turning a reliever into an effective starter. From 2015 through 2017 Martinez had seasons of 14-7 (3.01 ERA), 16-9 (3.04 ERA) and 12-11 (3.64 ERA), while making 92 starts. However, he was in and out of the starting rotation in 2018, going 8-6 with a 3.11 ERA in 33 appearances (18 starts). He returned to the bullpen full-time in 2019 (all 48 appearances were in relief), going 4-2 (3.17 ERA) with 24 saves. He was back in the starting rotation at the start of this season but was HAMMERED in his season debut, allowing six ERs on seven hits in just 3.2 innings in a July 28 start at Minnesota. Here's the rub. Martinez was one of the StL players to be sidelined with COVID-19 at the end of July and this marks his first start since recovering. He returns to the club after training at the team's alternate training site in Springfield, Mo., under the guidance of minor league pitching coordinator Tim Leveque and longtime Cardinals coach Jose Oquendo. How will he do? He can't be worse than his only other start this year, against these same Twins (see above for a reminder). I sure wouldn't want to trust him here, as the Twins have recovered nicely from their six-game slide and I expect them to ruin Martinez's return debut. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-20 | Clippers -9 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-107 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. The Denver Nuggets came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Utah Jazz in the first round and then with ONE day off between that grueling series and Game 1 of their second round series with the LA Clippers, got manhandled 120-97. Denver shot an abysmal 9 of 36 on threes (25%) and the team's two stars, center Nikola Jokic and PG Jamal Murray both fizzled. Jokic was held to a line of 15-3-3 and Murray scored only 12 points, shooting 5 of 15 from the floor (2 of 8 from three-point range). Kawhi led LA with 29 points, while George (19), Morris (18) and Harrell (15) all added solid support. However, Denver has a knack of getting its opponents out of their comfort zone and did just that in Game 2. Murray (27) and Jokic (260 bounced back with excellent games but more importantly, the Nuggets adjusted their defense to collapse inside and block the passing lanes back outside. The change resulted in the Clippers' Kawhi Leonard delivering his worst performance of the playoffs so far. Kawhi just missed a triple-double (13-10-8) but was an AWFUL 4 of 17 from the floor. His teammates didn't fare very well either, as after shooting 57.1% as a team in Game 1 (including 41.7% on threes), the Clippers shot just 40.9%, including 28.1% (9 of 32). The series is tied at one-all as it resumes Labor Day evening. The Nuggets have been in three previous playoff series the last two postseason and all three have gone SEVEN games. Are we headed for another seven-game series in this one? Some worrisome news for Denver is that it announced Sunday night that Jokic was listed as questionable for Game 3 with a sprained right wrist. The Clippers twice had a one-game lead on the Dallas Mavericks only to see their opponent even the series. However, LA bounced back from a Game to loss to Dallas to win 130-122 and after a Game 4 loss, routed the Mavs 154-11 to go up 3-2 (closed out the series in Game 6. "We will be better for Game 3," George told reporters. "There's no pep talk for it. It's the playoffs. We got to be ready. We've got to come out a lot stronger and we'll be up for the fight." Leonard's run of scoring at least 29 points in each game of the playoffs ended Saturday in Game 2. Anyone really NOT think he'll be a 'MONSTER' in Game 3? Lay it. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy | Top | 55-3 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Navy at 8:00 ET. The 2020 college football season will surely be "unlike any other." Just ask BYU, as NINE of the 12 schools on its original schedule have decided to NOT play in 2020. BYU plays football as an Independent and has scrambled to patch together a 2020 schedule that at the moment contains just EIGHT games, only two of which were on the school's original schedule (Houston and North Alabama, an FCS school). The first two games on BYU's 2020 schedule are contests against two of the nation's three service academies. The Cougars open Labor Day evening at Navy and play their second game Sep 16 at Army. BYU's current head coach is Kalani Sitake, who took over in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6, again. Would BYU 'take back' that contract extension if it could? Navy's Ken Niumatalolo took over for Paul Johnson back in 2008 and has led the Midshipmen to 10 winning seasons (and bowls) in his 12 years at the school. However, he and Navy entered the 2019 season off a brutal 3-10 year in 2018. The school's losing streak didn't last long, as the Midshipmen authored one of the finest single-season turnarounds in FBS history by going from 3-10 to 11-2, after beating Kansas St 20-17 (OT) in the Liberty Bowl. Navy's Malcolm Perry set a FBS record for rushing yards by a QB with 2,017, averaging 6.8 YPC while scoring 21 rushing TDs. Navy led the nation with 360.5 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.1 YPC while scoring 52 rushing TDs. Perry is gone but senior Dalen Morris takes over triple-option and had a strong preseason camp after appearing briefly in four games over the past two seasons. Navy returns its top-three RBs, including FB Jamlae Carothers (734 yards on 6.6 YPC and 14 TDs) and will once again feature a 'deep' group of RBs. Defensively, Navy was greatly improved last season, as after allowing 33.5 PPG on 426 YPG in 2018, the team allowed just 22.3 PPG last season (skewered by allowing 52 in a loss at Notre Dame) on 314 YPG (ranked 16th among FBS schools). Getting back to BYU, the Cougars dealt with numerous injuries to last season's offense, including to starting QB Zach Wilson. Wilson was recovering from shoulder surgery early in the 2019 season but is healthy and set to go. All five OL starters return but no RB ran for more than 359 yards in 2019 (team averaged just 159.1 YPG on the ground). Three standout WRs all graduated. but the good news is that TE Mark Bushman decided to return for his senior year. He had 44 catches last season with four TDs (has 125 catches in his career). BYU's defense allowed a credible 25.5 PPG last season and will return seven starters. BYU's 'patchwork' 2020 schedule opens this cross-country trip to Annapolis and the game was not announced until August 6th, the Cougars have not had a lot of time to prep for Navy’s triple option. As MTSU learned on Saturday at Army, that can be 'deadly!' Now BYU is a MUCH better team than MTSU but also, Navy is a MUCH better team than Army. no 42-0 blowout here but at this 'price,' Navy is my Game of the Week! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-20 | Diamondbacks -104 v. Giants | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arz D'backs at 8:05 ET. The San Francisco Giant began the 2020 season off years of 64-98, 73-89 and 77-85 from 2017 through 2019. They finished 29 games back of the Dodgers last season and the Giants' three World Series titles (in 2010, 2012 and 2014) felt more like 20 years ago, not 6-10 years ago. The Arizona D'backs went 85-77 in 2019 and while no one expected the D'backs to contend with LA for the NL West title (after all, Arizona finished 21 games back of the Dodgers in 2019), an expanded playoff field in 2020 gave the Arizona faithful hope in this shortened 60-game schedule. However, after opening 13-11, Arizona lost EIGHT in a row (from Aug 19-26), before snapping its losing skid with a 7-4 win at home against the Giants on Aug 27. The D'backs then promptly lost FIVE in a row, before winning 6-5 in San Francisco on Friday. However, the D'backs lost Saturday and Sunday and enter Monday's series finale just 15-26, a WHOPPING 14 1/2 games back of the division-leading Dodgers. As for the Giants, they were only 8-16 on the morning of Aug 17 but they've won 12 of 17 since. They are now 20-21 and FIVE games better than the D'backs but more importantly are 4 1/2 games back of the second-place Padres. ALL second-place teams earn a playoff spot and while the Giants probably can't catch San Diego, they are certainly capable of earning one of the NL's two wild card spots. Taking the mound Labor Day evening will be Zac Gallen (1-0, 1.80 ERA) of Arizona and Kevin Gausman (2-2, 4.43 ERA). Yes, Gallen has just that one decision in EIGHT starts here in 2020 but a closer look reveals that he's been Arizona's most effective starter all season. He's NOT allowed more than two ERs in ANY of his eight starts this season (team is 5-3 in those starts), posting an 0.94 WHIP and .182 BAA against to go along with his sub-.2.00 ERA. Gausman is in his eighth big league season and the Giants are his FOURTH team (career record of 49-65, with a 4.30 ERA). He's made eight appearances so far in 2020 (seven starts), with the Giants going 2-5 in his seven starts. He has no real history to speak of vs the D'backs, going 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in four games (three starts / teams are 1-2 & his ERA is 3.57). This is the final meeting of the season between these two NL west rivals, with the Giants having won SEVEN of the first nine. Add to that, the fact that the Diamondbacks have lost 15 of their last 17 games and one may ask, "Why play Arizona?" The reason is Zac Gallen who owns the major league record with 23 starts allowing three or fewer ERs to begin a career. Not bad, huh? D'backs are WAY better than their record and get the "W" in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -5.5 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Lakers at 8:30 ET. Here's what I wrote in my Game 1 analysis of Hou/LA on Friday. The Blazers were a 'sexy' pick to upset the Lakers at the start of the playoffs and after Game 1, 'tongues were wagging!' The Lakers shot just 35.1 percent from the floor, including 15.6 percent from three-point range (5 of 32!) in Game 1 but then won FOUR straight from Portland. It sure didn't hurt the Lakers that Lillard dislocated the index finger on his left hand in Game 2 and was never the same. However, LA averaged 123.3 PPG in the four straight wins, while shooting 52.2% from the floor in that span. A.D. averaged 29.8-9.4-4.2 in the series, while LBJ chipped in 27.4-10.2-10.2. Is LA's 'dynamic duo' enough to lead the Lakers to the title this postseason? LA is well-rested (last played on Aug 29) as the team gets set to meet the Houston Rockets. The Rockets needed all SEVEN games to get past OKC and just finished off the Thunder on Wednesday, edging them 104-102. Harden led Houston in scoring vs OKC, averaging 29.7-6.3-8.0 but his three-point shooting was way off most of the series (31.3%). Fellow superstar Russell Westbrook finally returned for Game 5 of the team's first round series and averaged just 14.7 PPG, about HALF his regular season average of 27.2 PPG. Without center Capela (13.9 & 13.3) since late January, the Rockets have turned to a 'small ball' philosophy and have gone 19-13 (team was 29-18 when Capela was lost for the season). FOUR more Rockets average in double digits in support of Harden and Westbrook, while starting PF Tucker chips in 8.6 & 7.7 and some VERY tough defense. We saw last night with the Clippers routing the Nuggets (LAC were my Las Vegas Insider play), a team coming off a tough seven-game series with just one day before facing a well-rested formidable opponent can get 'steamrolled!'. One team got steamrolled alright but it was the Lakers, NOT the Rockets. Houston's "small ball" won out, as the team's excellent trio of guards dominated the game. Harden scored 36 points, Westbrook 24-9-6 and Gordon 23. Here's the 'autopsy.' Houston pulled away in Friday night's Game 1, outscoring the Lakers 27-18 in the fourth quarter to lead by as many as 19 points in a comfortable 112-97 victory. Houston held the Lakers to 97 points, 42.2 percent shooting from the floor, including 11-of-38 from three-point range (28.9%). The rebounding numbers were even (41-41), a big win considering the Rockets are so undersized plus shot 27 FTs to LA's 19, the result of being more aggressive. The Rockets also scored 27 points off of 15 Lakers TOs. "I think it's the speed," James said after the game. "They play with a lot of speed both offensively and defensively. And you can watch it on film and you can see it on film; until you get out there and get a feel for it [you cannot comprehend it]. That's what we did tonight. We got a feel for their speed, and we should be fully aware of that going into Game 2." I have my doubts regarding LA's title hopes (will A.D. and LBJ be enough) but I won't hesitate to lay the points in this classic bounce-back spot for the Lakers. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-06-20 | Astros -145 v. Angels | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Hou Astros at 4:10 ET. The Houston Astros came to Anaheim on Friday with a modest 21-15 record. After all, the Astros had won THREE straight AL West titles, while winning 101, 103 and 107 games, respectively from 2017-2019. However, the Astros were two games back of the A's in 2020 and hoped to pick up some ground against the Angels, with a FIVE-game series at Oakland looming Monday-Thursday. And why shouldn't the Astros have been thinking that way? The Angels entered 2020 off FIVE straight non-playoff seasons, with 2019 being the worst of the bunch, as LA finished 72-90 (.444), a WHOPPING 35 games back of the Astros. In fact, that .444 'winning' percentage was looking pretty good to the 2020 Angels on Friday morning, as they sat 13-25 (.342), 11 games back of the division-leading A's. So where are we as of Sunday morning? The Angels take the field on Sunday looking for a FOUR-game sweep of the Astros. LA won Friday night 6-5 in 11 innings and then in Saturday's doubleheader, came from behind twice in their last at-bats to win 10-9 and 7-6 in those seven-inning contests. As Vince Lombardi once famously yelled, "What the hell is going on out there?" Taking the mound for Sunday's series finale will be Houston's Framber Valdez (3-2, 2.58 ERA) and LA's Jaime Barria (0-0, 2.63 ERA). Neither pitcher has much MLB experience but Valdez has looked solid this season, making seven appearances, including six starts. The lone relief appearance turned into a 6.1-inning effort at LA back on Aug 2, when he allowed just one unearned run in the game the Astros won 6-5 in 11 innings. He faced the Angels again on Aug 24 (in Houston) and allowed four ERs over seven innings but easily got the win in an 11-4 Houston victory. Barria made 26 starts for LA in 2018 and went 10-9 with a 3.412 ERA. However, he made a more modest 19 appearances in 2019 (just 13 starts) and was awful, going 4-10 with a 6.42 ER and 1.44 WHIP. He's made just three appearances in 2020, the first two in relief. His first start came on Aug 31 at home vs Seattle, when he took a no-decision (4.1 IP / 5 hits / 1 ER) in a 2-1 Mariners win. This play really isn't about the starters, although I do believe Valdez ( gives Houston the edge over Barria. Note that Valdez is 4-2 in his career against Los Angeles with a 3.20 ERA in eight appearances, including four starts (Astros are 3-1 and his ERA is 2.74). With FIVE games in four days with the A's looming Monday-Thursday, the LAST thing Houston needs is to get swept by the Angels. After THREE straight one-run losses, Houston gets off the schneid and wins here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-06-20 | Padres v. A's +110 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Oak A's at 4:10 ET. The Padres won Game 1 of this three-game series against the A's in Oakland 7-0 on Friday night but the A's rebounded nicely on Saturday, winning 8-4. The rubber match is set for Sunday. The 24-17 Padres know it's VERY unlikely they'll catch the 30-11 Dodgers in the NL West (sit SIX games back) but with ALL second-place teams in each division assured of a playoff spot (plus two wild cards), the Padres are almost a 'lock' to be playing postseason baseball for the first time since 2006. As for the A's, they lead the Astros by 3 1/2 games in the AL West and barring a total collapse, are headed to the postseason for the THIRD straight season. Squaring off in Sunday's contest will be LA's Garrett Richards (1-2, 4.63 ERA) and Oakland's Mike Fiers (4-1, 4.86 ERA). Richards spent eight years with the Angels, before signing a two-year deal with San Diego. However, Tommy John surgery caused him to miss almost ALL of 2019 (made just three September appearances). Here in 2020, he's been AWFUL at home (7.82 ERA / team is 1-3) but very good on the road (2,82 ERA / team is 3-1). However, it's hard for Richards to match Fiers' numbers since coming to Oakland. His overall numbers are off in 2020 (1.43 WHIP and .282 BAA to go along with his 4.86 ERA), after he set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. However, the A's are 6-1 in his seven 2020 starts. Should we be surprised? Here's the rub. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 50 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 37-13 (.740) in those contests! Want more? The A's are 22-4 in Fiers' 26 home starts at Oakland Coliseum (that's an 85% winning percentage), where the A's have gone 14-5 (.737) in 2020, after going 52-29 and 50-31 the previous two seasons. With that record, just how are the A's an underdog (or pick'em) in this situation? The A's have the Astros coming to town for FIVE games in four days beginning on Labor Day and a win here would be a nice way to lead into that VERY important series. Once again, Fiers "gets the CA$H!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-06-20 | Bucks v. Heat OVER 218.5 | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year is on Mil/Mia Over at 3:30 ET. Here's what I wrote in support of the Bucks in Games 2 and 3 vs the Heat. Milwaukee went an NBA-best 56-17 on the season, 12 games better than Miami's 44-29 record. The Bucks have been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. The Bucks showed no interest in their eight regular season games in the bubble but after a Game 1 'hiccup' vs Orlando in this is the playoffs, the Bucks won FOUR straight by an average margin of 14.5 PPG. The Bucks lost Game 1, even though they led by 11 points after the first quarter, as the Heat controlled the rest of the game to win by 11. The Heat were the team to get off to a quick start in Game 2, leading 38-29 at the end of the first quarter. Miami's lead was 90-86 entering the fourth but Milwaukee had the lead back on the very first possession of the final quarter. Middleton was fouled on a three-point try, He made the first two free throws and the rebound of the third was controlled by the Bucks. Kyle Korver made a three-pointer off that rebound to cap a five-point possession for Milwaukee, which had the lead again at 91-90 for the first time since 14-13. However, the Heat then scored 13 of the next 15 points to not only reclaim the lead but push it to 103-93 with 7:50 left. Miami led by SIX with 27 seconds left but almost let it slip away. I'm sure everyone saw the frantic few seconds but in the end, Miami won 116-114 (and deservedly so). Then in Game 3, Milwaukee led by 12 points entering the fourth quarter and ultimately lost by 15!! The Bucks were outscored in the fourth quarter by 27 (40-13), which was the largest points differential in a fourth quarter of a playoff game in the shot clock era (since 1955), according to ESPN Stats & Information research. Miami ended the game on a 17-1 run. History says the Bucks are 'dead.' No NBA team ever has come back from an 0-3 deficit to win a series in 139 attempts in NBA playoff history! The Bucks have confounded me and MANY others as well. History says they are 'dead' but as the saying goes, "all things are true until they aren't!" Giannis Antetokounmpo finished Game 3 with 21 points, 16 rebounds and nine assists but he missed all SEVEN three-point attempts and made only 7 of 12 free throws (he made just 4 of 12 FTs in Game 1). Antetokounmpo was dealing with a twisted right ankle in Game 3, an ailment he sustained in the first quarter on a drive to the basket. It's unclear whether it will limit him in Game 4. He didn't say much about it after Game 3. Will Giannis even suit up with Milwaukee in an 0-3 'hole?' Giannis is hardly the problem for the Bucks in this series, as Milwaukee has averaged 14.3 turnovers per game and shot 35.1 percent from three-point range so far in the series, including just 20.8 percent in the fourth quarter. The fact that Miami is averaging 31.0 free-throw attempts per game, is a HUGE problem for the Bucks, as is containing Jimmy Butler. He had 40 points in Game 1 (career playoff-high), hit the game-winning free throws with no time on the clock in Game 2 and scored 30 points in Game 3, including 17 in the decisive fourth quarter! Butler's getting plenty of help from the team's other four starters this postseason (all are averaging between 10.4 and 22.3 PPG) plus rookie Herro has averaged 15.3 PPG off the bench in this year's playoffs. The Bucks no longer have ANY pressure on them (the team's 'obit' has already been written) and what I see (Giannis limited or not) is Milwaukee playing loose and for this game to 'fly' over the total. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-05-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the SF Giants at 9:15 ET. The San Francisco Giant began the 2020 season off years of 64-98, 73-89 and 77-85 from 2017 through 2019. They finished 29 games of the Dodgers last season and the Giants' three World Series titles (in 2010, 2012 and 2014) felt more like 20 years ago, not 6-10 years ago. The Arizona D'backs went 85-77 in 2019 and while no one expected the D'backs to contend with LA for the NL West title (after all, Arizona finished 21 games back of the Dodgers), an expanded playoff field in 2020 gave the Arizona faithful hope in this shortened 60-game schedule. However, after opening 13-11, Arizona lost EIGHT in a row (from Aug 19-26), before snapping its losing skid with a 7-4 win at home against the Giants on Aug 27. The D'backs then promptly lost FIVE in a row as they opened a four-game series in San Francisco last night. While the D'backs sat 14-24 prior to last night's game, the Giants could actually 'sniff' a possible playoff berth at 18-20. The D'backs beat the Giants 6-5 last night and the two teams continue their four-game series tonight at Oracle Park, as Madison Bumgarner (0-3, 9.35 ERA) takes on Trevor Cahill (0-0, 2.51 ERA). Bumgarner needs no introduction, as he opened the 2020 season with a 119-92 record (3.13 ERA) in 11 seasons (286 starts) with the Giants. He also owns three World Series rings (2010, 2012 & 2014), along with a World Series MVP in 2014 (two wins and one save / 0.43 ERA, 0.48 WHIP and 17-1 KW ratio). Bumgarner went 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA in 2019 for the Giants. He signed a five-year contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks, worth $85 million back on December 17, 2019, Things haven't gone well for the former World Series MVP. He made his Diamondbacks debut as a Opening Day starting pitcher and after going 0-3 in four starts (team was 0-4 and he owned a 1.56 WHIP and .282 BAA to go along with his near-10.00 ERA), was placed on the disabled list on August 10, 2020. Trevor Cahill began his career with Oakland, where he pitched from 2009-11. He was terrific in 2010 (18-8, 2.97 ERA) but from 2012 through 2019, he pitched for SEVEN different teams (including a second stint with Oakland) with VERY little success. Cahill signed a one-year, $9 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels prior to the 2019 season and had a career worst 5.98 ERA while being demoted to the bullpen. He signed a major league contract with the San Francisco Giants on Feb 26, 2020. He began the season sidelined with a fingernail injury but was put on the major league roster right before a game with Houston on Aug 21. He was only expected to throw about 50 pitches and was pulled after 55, walking four in just 1.2 innings. However, he's remained in the starting rotation and while he hasn't pitched 'deep into any of his last three starts (3.1 innings to 5.1 innings), he's allowed just four ERs on seven hits over 12.2 innings for a 2.84 ERA. Let me note that the Giants have won all THREE of Cahill's last three starts and his teams have won THREE of his four career starts vs the Giants. Meanwhile, Bumgarner comes off the IL to face the team he starred for from 2009-2019. His fastball has lost its zip (topped out at 85-87 MPH) in his last outing vs the Padres back on Aug 9, when he allowed four HRs and six ERs in just two innings. In his previous start (Aug 4 vs Houston), he allowed EIGHT runs (seven earned) on seven hits (two HRs) in just 4.1 innings. The saying is, "You can't go home" and Bumgarner learns that lesson tonight. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-05-20 | Islanders -125 v. Flyers | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the NY Islanders at 7:30 ET. There is something special about a Game 7, a winner-take-all situation that players in all sports have been dreaming about since they were kids! The New York Islanders took a 3-1 lead in their series against the Philadelphia Flyers when Jean-Gabriel Pageau (a trade deadline addition) scored the tie-breaking goal in the third period of a 3-2 win on Sunday night. The Islanders entered the NHL's 24-team expanded playoff as the Eastern Conference's seventh seed and advanced past the 10th-seeded Florida Panthers 3-1 in the qualifying round. They then KO'D the Metropolitan Division champion Capitals 4-1. When the Isles took the ice on Tuesday against the Philadelphia Flyers, they were ONE win away from reaching the conference finals for the first time since 1993! However, the Flyers have extended this series in a Game 7 with a 4-3 OT win on Tuesday and then a 5-4 2-OT win on Thursday. The Flyers went with Brian Elliott in goal last Sunday when they fell behind 3-1 in the series but head coach Alain Vigneault put the second-year pro Carter Hart back in goal for Game 5. Hart stopped 29 of 32 shots in that 4-3 OT win, making some spectacular saves in overtime. He then made a career-high 49 saves (on 53 shots) in Thursday's double-OT win. That's 78 saves on 85 shots these last two games, as Hart is now 9-4 with a 2.17 GAA and a .929 SP in 13 games since the restart (Aug 1). New York head coach Barry Trotz used both Varlamov and Greiss during the regular season but it's been almost ALL Varlamov in Toronto. He's been excellent (2.00 GAA and .921 SP) but the last two games, he's HARDLY been at his best. He had a SP of just .875 (28 of 32) in Game 5 and only .839 (26 of 31) in Game 5. Could Trotz turn to Greiss, who in two games since the restart, owns a .1.68 GAA and .949 (?). Trotz said after Game 6, "This is a very good hockey team that we're playing. We're pretty evenly matched. It's probably fitting that it is a Game 7." Hard to argue with that . Philly head coach Alain Vigneault has directed comebacks from down 3-1, before. He guided the New York Rangers back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Penguins in the 2014 second round and his Rangers did it again in 2015, when a 3-1 deficit didn't stop New York from beating the Washington Capitals in the second round. Is a THIRD comeback from down 3-1 in the cards? Here's the rub. Teams don't often come back from 3-1 deficits to win but teams that forced a Game 7 after being down 3-1 were 29-28 in the decisive game entering Friday's two Game 7s. However, NEITHER Colorado nor Vancouver were able to win their Game 7s last night and my bet says the Flyers will suffer a similar fate tonight The Islanders certainly would have taken a Game 7 opportunity when the regular season ended due to the pandemic on Mar. 12, as they were mired in a seven-game losing streak and one point out of the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. The team's STRONG late-summer run has them on the doorstep of the franchise's first trip to the conference finals in 27. Whether it's Varlamov or Greiss in net, the Islanders 'knock that door down' in this Game 7. One last thing. All three of Philly's wins in this series have come in OT and the Isles are 10-5 in the playoffs, with all FIVE losses coming by just ONE goal. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-05-20 | Cardinals +101 v. Cubs | Top | 4-2 | Win | 101 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the StL Cards at 5:10 ET (Game 1 of doubleheader). The Brewers, Cards and Cubs have been "the usual suspects" in the NL Central in recent years. The Brewers won the division in 2018 (made it to NLCS but lost in seven games to LA) and in 2019 earned a wild card berth. The Cubs had a late-season collapse in 2019, ending a four-year postseason run (2015-18) which included division titles in 2016 and 2017, when the Cubs won their first World series title since 1908! St Louis is well-familiar with winning, as the Cards captured a World Series title in 2006 and then again in 2011. That 2011 season was the first of FIVE straight playoff appearances for the Cards but while the team posted winning seasons in each year from 2016-18, St Louis failed to reach the postseason. That changed in 2019, as the Cards won the NL Central with a 91-71 record and advanced to the NLCS where they ran into the red-hot Nationals and got swept. The Yankees/Red Sox and Dodgers/Giants have to be considered MLB's top-two rivalries but don't tell that to Midwest fans, who know all about rivalry series when the Cards and Cubs square off. These two longtime and bitter rivals are playing a five-game series at Wrigley Field this Labor Day weekend (Fri-Mon). The series opened last night with Chicago winning 4-1, as the 23-15 Cubs opened a 4 1/2 game lead in the NL Central over the 14-15 Cardinals and 18-19 Brewers (18-19). The series continues with a Saturday doubleheader, with the Cardinals serving as the home team for the second half of the twin-bill. In fact, the Cubs and Cardinals are playing their entire 10-game season series in Chicago this season due to the rescheduling of COVID-19 postponements." Addressing that situation, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt told reporters, "That's just one of those deals. I just look at the games as a game. It's clearly an anomaly that I'm sure -- well, I'm not sure of anything some days. Be careful what you say will never happen again because as soon as you think something won't happen, it will pop up. So it's obviously very different." That quote pretty much sums up the state of sports here in 2020. The Game 1 pitching matchup features St Louis veteran Adam Wainwright (3-0, 2.65 ERA) going up against Chicago rookie Adbert Alzolay (0-0, 0.00 ERA). St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. The Cards won Wainwright's first three starts of 2020 (2.00 ERA) but he then took a no-decision in a 5-4 StL loss (7 IP / 4 ERs) on Aug 25. Then this past Sunday, Wainwright turned back the clock with a complete game on his 39th birthday as the Cardinals beat the Cleveland Indians 7-2 Sunday, snapping a four-game skid. Wainwright threw a four-hitter for his 23rd career complete game and first in four years! Cubs manager David Ross has had to improvise with starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood shelved by forearm strain, The Cubs had hoped to plug Jose Quintana into his rotation slot but Quintana went on the 10-day injured list with a left lat muscle strain. Instead, the Cubs promoted top pitching prospect Adbert Alzolay to start the first half of Saturday's doubleheader (note: Ross expects to use a series of relievers to get through Game 2). Alzolay faced the Cardinals on Aug 19 and held them to one unearned run on two hits in five innings of a doubleheader game. He struck out six batters and walked only one in a 4-2 victory. Wainwright is 16-13 with a 4.15 ERA in 50 career outings against the Cubs, including 41 starts (team is 24-17). Meanwhile, Alzolay has six career appearances (three starts) with 12.1 innings pitched "under his belt." I had Wainwright last Sunday and will back him again in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 93 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* NCAAF 2020 Opener is on Army at 1:30 ET. Middle Tenn St was expected to open its season Sep 5 at Duke, coming off a 4-8 season. 2019 was an aberration for the Blue Raiders, as MTSU had been bowl-eligible in NINE of the last 10 seasons. However, in the era of COVID-19, plans tend to change more often than not. The Blue Raiders will instead open their 2020 season by traveling to West Point to take on the Black Knights at Michie Stadium. Army is coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-8 season in 2019 (more later) but talk about changing plans! Of the first SEVEN schools on Army's original 2020 schedule (from Sep 4 through Oct 24) the Black Knights won't play a SINGLE one. The biggest 'loss' being Oklahoma's first visit to Michie Stadium (on Sep 26) since 1946 being canceled. And so it goes. Army does have a 12-game season scheduled, beginning with a first-ever meeting with MTSU. MTSU's Rick Stockstill enters his 15the season in Murfreesboro and he's led the Blue Raiders to EIGHT bowl games, although the school has gone just 2-6 SU and ATS. QB Asher O’Hara was an adequate passer last season (62.7% / 2,616 YP / 20-8 ratio) and he was also MTSU's best runner. He gained 1,00 yards on the ground, averaging 5.2 YPC while scoring nine TDs. The problem was, NO other RB reached 300 yards rushing. MTSU added two Power-5 transfers at the RB position but both opted out. Defense has never been a MTSU strength and after allowing 29.9 PPG last season, maybe it's a good thing that only THREE starters return. Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, left the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018. However, much like MTSU, 2019 was a HUGE disappointment for the Cadets of West Point. Army opened last season with a 'shaky' 14-7 win over Rice (as 23.5 favorites), extending its winning streak to 10 in a row. That streak was snapped the next week at Michigan but a 24-21 loss in OT at The "Big House" was hardly cause for concern. Army would win its next two games over UTSA (31-21) and Morgan St (52-21) but then the 'wheels came off.' Army would lose SEVEN of its final nine games, beating only sad-sack UMass (1-11 in 2019) and VMI, an FCS school. A crushing 31-7 to Navy was a fitting end to a dismal season. Army has 13 starters back, including SEVEN from a defense that allowed 23.0 PPG on 342.0 YPG. Starting QB Hopkins is gone but both Jabari Lewis and Christian Anderson made starts last year. Lewis is the likely starter, after making five starts. Army's rushing attack averaged 297.2 YPG last season on 5.2 YPC and should give the MTSU defense fits, as Stockstill's "D" hasn’t faced the option since a 24-6 loss to Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl (note" Navy ran for 366 yards on 5.5 YPC). Making matters worse, this trip to West Points wasn’t added to MTSU's schedule until August 10. With COVID-19 limiting all teams prep time last spring and this summer, properly preparing for the option seems like 'a bridge too far.' Don't forget, MTSU went 0-6 SU on the road last season, losing on average by 16.8 PPG. I'm expecting a COMFORTABLE Army win. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-04-20 | Padres +133 v. A's | Top | 7-0 | Win | 133 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the SD Padres at 9:40 ET. The Oakland A's were 22-10 on the morning of Aug 27th but sat out that Thursday game with the Rangers. They then moved to Houston for an important three-game series with the Astros but the two teams sat out Friday's game in protest, forcing a Saturday doubleheader. The A;s would lose both ends of that doubleheader and then pitcher Daniel Mengden tested positive for the coronavirus, forcing a postponement of Sunday's final. The A's then postponed a three-game series with Seattle Mon-Thu but are now "safe to return to play." However, as they welcome the Padres to Oakland on Friday, the team begins a stretch of 14 games in 11 days! Oakland is 22-12, two games up on Houston in the AL West. The 23-16 Padres come to Oakland with a whole new cast of characters, including starter Mike Clevinger, reliever Trevor Rosenthal, catchers Jason Castro and Austin Nola, designated hitter Mitch Moreland and outfielder Greg Allen, all acquired via trade in the days leading up to the Aug 31 deadline. Clevinger started last night for San Diego at the LAA and took a hard-luck 2-0 loss, although he pitched well (6 IP / 2 ERs). "It's the most exciting team in baseball right now," Clevinger gushed of the new-look Padres shortly after joining the club. "It's kind of the place to be right now." Zach Davies (5-2, 2.61 ERA) gets the ball for San Diego, while Oakland counters with Jesus Luzardo (2-1, 3.74 ERA).Davies' best season was back in 2017 with Milwaukee (17-9, 3.90 ERA) but he went just 12-14 over 44 starts in 2018 and 2019. He was traded to San Diego this past offseason and the Padres are VERY happy with the way he's pitched. Davies has a decision in all SEVEN of his starts (5-2) and along with his excellent ERA (2.61), he owns a superb 0.90 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .189 BAA. Luzardo pitched just 12 innings (six relief appearances) in 2019 but this season has made seven appearances, including five starts. He is far from outstanding but he's been solid, as the A's are 4-1 in his starts. However, he hasn't pitched in 11 days since suffering his first loss of the season, 3-2 at Texas last Monday. Meanwhile, the A's haven't played since losing both ends of a doubleheader at Houston last Saturday. That's NOT a great 'daily double' when facing Davies and a San Diego team 'smelling' a playoff berth for the first time since the 2006 season. I'm taking the 'juicy' price with Davies. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-04-20 | Rockets v. Lakers -6 | 112-97 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Blazers went 6-2 in the Orlando 'bubble' and then secured the No. 8 seed in the West by beating the Grizzlies 126-122 in the Play-In game. Portland has been led by Bubble MVP Damian Lillard, who has averaged 36.9 PPG in Portland's nine-game surge to capture the West's No. 8 seed. He then scored 34 points in Game 1 vs the Lakers, as Portland won 100-93. The Blazers were a 'sexy' pick to upset the Lakers at the start of the playoffs and after Game 1, 'tongues were wagging!' The Lakers shot just 35.1 percent from the floor, including 15.6 percent from three-point range (5 of 32!) in Game 1 but then won FOUR straight from Portland. It sure didn't hurt the Lakers that Lillard dislocated the index finger on his left hand in Game 2 and was never the same. However, LA averaged 123.3 PPG in the four straight wins, while shooting 52.2% from the floor in that span. A.D. averaged 29.8-9.4-4.2 in the series, while LBJ chipped in 27.4-10.2-10.2. Is LA's 'dynamic duo' enough to lead the Lakers to the title this postseason? LA is well-rested (last played on Aug 29) as the team gets set to meet the Houston Rockets. The Rockets needed all SEVEN games to get past OKC and just finished off the Thunder on Wednesday, edging them 104-102. Harden led Houston in scoring vs OKC, averaging 29.7-6.3-8.0 but his three-point shooting was way off most of the series (31.3%). Fellow superstar Russell Westbrook finally returned for Game 5 of the team's first round series and averaged just 14.7 PPG, about HALF his regular season average of 27.2 PPG. Without center Capela (13.9 & 13.3) since late January, the Rockets have turned to a 'small ball' philosophy and have gone 19-13 (team was 29-18 when Capela was lost for the season). FOUR more Rockets average in double digits in support of Harden and Westbrook, while starting PF Tucker chips in 8.6 & 7.7 and some VERY tough defense. We saw last night with the Clippers routing the Nuggets (LAC were my Las Vegas Insider play), a team coming off a tough seven-game series with just one day before facing a well-rested formidable opponent can get 'steamrolled!' Second verse, same as the first." Lakers roll. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-04-20 | Brewers v. Indians -135 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cle Indians at 7:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians won THREE straight AL Central titles from 2016-18 but despite winning 90-plus games for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, the Indians' 93 wins left them EIGHT games behind the AL Central champion 101-61. The Indians opened the current season just 5-6 and sat 10-9 through Aug 12. However, Cleveland has won 13 of 18 since and currently leads the AL Central by a half-game over the White Sox and 1 1/2 over the Twins. The Brewers, Cards and Cubs were "the usual suspects" heading into this year's 60-game schedule. Milwaukee won the division in 2018 (lost the NLCS to LA in seven games) and last year earned the NL's second wild card spot but blew a three-run lead at Washington in losing that winner-take-all game, 4-3 The Brewers have not been over .500 ALL season and currently are 17-19, leaving then in third-place in the division, 4 1/2 games out of first. The Cleveland Indians hope to create some breathing room in the top-heavy AL Central on Friday when they begin a three-game series against the visiting Milwaukee The Brewers have won FOUR of their last six contests heading into this opener of a five-game road trip. Friday's game continues a stretch of seven straight interleague contests for Milwaukee. Taking the mound will be Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes (1-0, 2.78 ERA) and Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 3.75). Burness was a rookie in 2018 and went 7-0 with 2.61 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 300 appearances (middle reliever). However, he made 32 appearances last year (four starts) going 1-5 with his ERA and WHIP ballooning to 8.82 and 1.84, respectively. He's regained his 2018 form in the first half of this season, as in seven appearances (4 starts), he's 1-0 with a 2.78 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Burnes, struck out a career-high 10 batters and scattered three hits over six scoreless innings in a 9-1 win over Pittsburgh last Friday (team is 2-2 in his four starts). Carrasco was coming off back-to-back strong seasons entering 2019, having gone 18-6, 3.29 ERA and 17-10, 3,38 ERA, respectively. He took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but only days later, was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2 on July 27 of this season, as he won his first start in 423 days! His first three starts of 2020 went well, as he allowed just five ERs over 18 innings (6 IP in each), for a 2.50 ERA and had 23 Ks in those 18 innings. As for his next three starts? NOT so good. He has lasted more than 4.1 innings in any of them, allowing 10 ERs over 12 innings for a 7.50 ERA. He has 16 Ks in those 12 innings but he's also allowed NINE walks! However, Carrasco scattered two hits and struck out six in six scoreless innings of a 2-1 (12 inn.) victory for Cleveland at St. Louis last Saturday. That's the kind of pitching the Indians need from Carrasco, with Clevinger traded to San Diego. Some good news here is that he has won both of his career starts vs the Brewers, posting a 1.69 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. The Brewers are just NOT the same team in 2020 that they were in 2018 and 2019. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-04-20 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | Top | 100-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Mil Bucks at 6:30 ET. The Milwaukee Bucks finished the regular season with the best record in the NBA at 56-17, TWELVE games better than the Miami Heat. However, the Bucks are in REAL danger of getting bounced out of the playoffs during the Eastern Conference semifinals, as the Heat have won both Games 1 and 2. Milwaukee jumped out to a 40-29 lead at the end of the first quarter on Monday but it was ALL Miami after that, as the Heat turned that 11-point deficit into an 11-point victory (115-104). The Heat were the team to get off to a quick start in Game 2, leading 38-29 at the end of the first quarter. Miami's lead was 90-86 entering the fourth but Milwaukee had the lead back on the very first possession of the final quarter. Middleton was fouled on a three-point try, He made the first two free throws and the rebound of the third was controlled by the Bucks. Kyle Korver made a three-pointer off that rebound to cap a five-point possession for Milwaukee, which had the lead again at 91-90 for the first time since 14-13. However, the Heat then scored 13 of the next 15 points to not only reclaim the lead but push it to 103-93 with 7:50 left. Miami led by SIX with 27 seconds left but almost let it slip away. I'm sure everyone saw the frantic few seconds but in the end, Miami won 116-114 (and deservedly so). Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 23.5 points, 12.0 rebounds and 6.0 assists vs Miami, after averaging 31.8-16.0-6.0 in the first round. Teammate Khris Middleton is averaging 25.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 6.5 assists, an improvement over his first round performance when he averaged just 15.0 PPG on 33.5% shooting. Speaking of shooting performances, the Bucks shot 28.0 percent (7 of 25) in Game 2. If they DON'T improve, they'll NEVER get back in the series. Miami's Jimmy Butler scored 40 points in Game 1 (a career playoff-high), while PG Dragic scored 27 and PF Adebayo added 12-17-6. Butler had just 13 points in Game 2 but his final two points (two FTs with 0:00 on the clock), secured the victory. All five Miami starters scored in double digits on Wednesday, led by PG Dragic's 23 points. He's scored at least 20 points in all six playoff games to lead Miami's SIX double-digit scorers this postseason with a line of 23.5-4.5-4.8. That balance has Miami 6-0 SU & ATS in the 2020 postseason. Milwaukee went an NBA-best 56-17 on the season. The Bucks have been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. The Bucks showed no interest in their eight regular season games in the bubble but after a Game 1 'hiccup' vs Orlando in this is the playoffs, the Bucks won FOUR straight by an average margin of 14.5 PPG. The Bucks are in an 0-2 'hole' vs Miami and they've 'earned' that position. Maybe I'm 'spitting into the wind,' but I will NOT dismiss the NBA's best team over the last two seasons. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-03-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers -8.5 | 97-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. The Denver Nuggets edged the Utah Jazz in Game 1 of their first round series in OT but then lost THREE in a row, as the Jazz ripped Denver's defense by shooting 54.5% from the floor, including 47.3% on threes in that span. Denver never really 'cooled off; the Jazz in Games 5 and 6 but the Nuggets but won back-to-back games to send the series to a Game 7. In that one on Tuesday, Denver let a 19-point lead slip away but held on for an 80-78 win. In the process, Denver became just the 12th team in NBA playoff history to comeback and win a series after trailing 3-1. No. 3 Denver now takes on the LA Clippers (No. 2 seed), who needed six games to put away the Luka Doncic-led Mavericks. Denver center Nikola Jokic has been the team's best player the last two seasons, leading Denver in points, rebounds and assists in each of the last two regular seasons. He was somewhat overshadowed by Jamal Murray against Utah, as Denver's PG averaged 31.6-5.6-6.3, including averaging 47.3 PPG from Games 4 through 6. However, in Tuesday's deciding Game 7, while Murray shot just 7 of 21 (1 of 6 on threes) with 17 points, Jokic scored 30 points (added 14 rebounds), including making the game-winning shot with 27 seconds left! The Clippers really struggled with Dallas and the remarkable Doncic, who averaged 31.0-9.8-8.7 in his first-ever playoff series. However, Porzingis missed the final two games and Dallas couldn't keep up as LA outscored 154 points the Mavs 265-208 in winning Games 5 and 6. Kawhi Leonard averaged 32.8-10.2-5.2 (shot 53.8%) against Dallas and closed out the first round in style, becoming the seventh player in NBA history to record 30 points (33), 10 rebounds (14), 5 assists (7) and 5 steals (5) in a playoff game and the first to do so since Gary Payton 20 years ago. No one in LA is concerned about Kawhi but there is worry surrounding Paul George. He averaged just 18.5-6.9-4.0 in the series, shooting 35.8% (27.5% on threes), after shooting 43.9% on the season (including 41.2% on threes). The Clippers can't afford George to shoot a combined 10-for-47 (21.3%) in Games 2, 3 and 4, including going 4-for-25 (16.0%) from three-point, again. I'm pretty sure that George will NOT continue to struggle plus the Clippers should expect MUCH more from PF Harrell, who after averaging 18.6 & 7.1 in the regular season, has seen limited minutes while averaging 9.0 & 3.3, so far. The Clippers are well-rested, having last played on Aug 30 and that game was their ONLY contest since Aug 27. The Clippers take the floor tonight, for just the SECOND time in NINE days! Denver has had just ONE day to get over their great comeback and dramatic Game 7 win over Utah plus Murray seemed to be slowed in the second half of Game 7 after taking a knee to his thigh from Utah's Joe Ingles. SF Barton (15.1-6.3-3.7) has yet to play a game in Orlando plus SGF Harris, the team's best perimeter defender, has just come back the last two games. TOUGH spot for Denver, Lay the points with LA. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-03-20 | White Sox -135 v. Royals | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Chi White Sox at 8:05 ET. The Indians won the AL Central from 2016-18 but despite 93 wins in 2019, lost out to the Twins, who won 101 games for the first time since they won 102 games on their way to the 1965 World Series (lost that one in seven games to Sandy Koufax and the Dodgers). Cleveland and Minnesota were expected to vie for the AL Central title again in 2020 but there were some who warned, "Watch out for the White Sox!" At first glance that seems silly, as since winning the 2005 World Series, the White Sox have made just ONE postseason experience (2008) and over the previous three seasons (2017-19), had finished 35, 29 and 28.5 games out of first-place, respectively. However, a quick check of the AL Central standings Thursday morning reveals the Indians (23-14), White Sox (22-15) and the Twins (22-16) are all bunched together at the top of the division, separated by just 1 1/2 games. As for the Royals, who welcome the White Sox to KC for a four-game series beginning tonight, you'll find them in last-place at 14-23. That's NINE games back of Cleveland, which just beat KC Tuesday and Wednesday (10-1 & 5-1), after the Royals took the opener of that series 2-1 on Monday. The Royals were just in Chicago last weekend, losing TWO of three to the White Sox, dropping them to 1-5 against them on the season. This four-game series will complete the season series between the two teams. Taking the mound will be Chicago's Dylan Cease (4-2, 3.00 ERA), going up against KC's Danny Duffy (2-2, 4.11 ERA). Cease made 14 starts last season for Chicago (rookie year), going 4-7 with a 5.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP (team was 6-8 in his starts). He struggled in his first start of 2020 (2.1 IP / 7 hits / 4 ERs) but in SIX August starts, has looked pretty good. He's allowed a modest eight ERs over 33.2 innings in that span, posting a 2.14 ERA. Cease started last Saturday against the Royals in Chicago and while he allowed just one ER and one hit, he walked SIX batters and after 93 pitches was removed after 4.1 innings (Chicago would lose, 9-6). However, back on Aug 2 in KC, he allowed just two ERs over six innings of a 9-2 White Sox win over the Royals. KC's Danny Duffy is in his 10th season with the Royals. He made his debut in 2011 when the Royals lost 91 games but he was there when they went to back-to-back World Series in 2014 and 2015, winning it the second time. However, he's now a part of another rebuild. KC lost the first three times he took the mound in 2020 (Duffy was 0-2 with a 4.11 ERA) but the Royals then won his next three starts (Duffy was 2-0 with 3.86 ERA). Duffy also pitched (like Cease) in last weekend's series between the two teams, lasting 5.2 innings while allowing four runs (three earned) on seven hits in a 6-6 KC loss (he took a no-decision). Duffy's seen plenty of the White Sox over his career, making 24 starts against Chicago while going 10-6 with 4.12 ERA (KC is 15-9). Duffy has started 188 of his 216 career appearances but checks in 62-63 for his career. He's made 20-plus starts in SEVEN of his previous nine seasons but has produced just ONE winning record in that span, going 12-3 with a 3.51 ERA in 42 appearances (26 starts). However, even in that season (his best as a major-leaguer, he poste a 5.50 ERA in six September starts, as the Royals went 1-5!) He's really nothing more than a journeyman and he's facing a young pitcher with real potential in Cease, who also owns the advantage of pitching for the MUCH better team! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-03-20 | Padres -137 v. Angels | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -137 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the SD Padres at 7:10 ET. Mike Clevinger was the biggest name to change teams at the trade deadline, as the Cleveland Indians sent him to the San Diego Padres this past Monday. He'll make his San Diego debut tonight in Anaheim against the Angels, the team that selected Clevinger in the fourth round of the 2011 Major League Baseball draft (more later). The 23-15 Padres are FIVE games back of the LA Dodgers in the NL West but with an expanded postseason field, the Padres are "looking good" for reaching the playoffs for the first time since the 2006 season. Meanwhile, the LA Angels are currently 12-25, the owners of the AL's worst record. Mike Trout is now less than a month away from being a full-time father. Clevinger never reached the big leagues with the Angels and had elbow reconstruction surgery in 2013. He was traded to the Cleveland Indians on May 18, 2016. He made 17 appearances (10 starts) for Cleveland in 2016 but went just 3-3 with a 5.220 ERA. However, from 2017-19, he was 38-18 with a 2.96 ERA. Big things were expected for him in 2019 but he made just four starts (1-1, 3.18 ERA) for the Indians in 2020, as his season was interrupted because he was placed on the restricted list by the Indians for breaking COVID-19 protocols in early August. Taking the mound for the Angels will be Andrew Heaney (2-2, 4.62 ERA). He is coming off his best performance of 2020in his last outing, allowing just one run on four hits over 7.2 innings with 10 Ks in LA;s 3-2 win last Friday vs the Mariners. Heaney was the Angels' Opening Day starter but had failed to last at least six innings in any of his first six starts, with an ERA of 5.52 (Angels went 1-5 in those starts). The Angels are a 'MESS' and Heaney is nothing more than a journeyman pitcher (22-28 with a 4.45 ERA in 88 career appearances / 84 starts). Meanwhile, the Padres are a playoff-caliber team in 2020 , as the team's plus-50 run differential ranks SECOND to only the Dodgers among NL teams (it's 3rd-best among all 30 MLB teams!). Clevinger HAS to be excited about his opportunity for a fresh start with a new team and his debut comes against the team that originally drafted him. The fact that Clevinger is 4-0 with a 2.94 ERA in six career starts (team is 5-1) is just "icing on the cake!" Late-Breaker on the Padres. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-03-20 | Raptors -1 v. Celtics | Top | 104-103 | Push | 0 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tor Raptors at 6:30 ET. The Raptors shot poorly in Game 1 vs the Celtics (36.9% overall, including 25% on threes in going 10 of 40). Boston jumped out to a 39-23 lead at the end of the first quarter and cruised to a 112-94 win. The Raptors NEEDED to improve their play (AND shooting) in Game 2 and while Toronto struggled again (especially from three-point range), the Raptors had a 12-point lead in the late third quarter and took an eight-point lead into the final period. However, Boston DOMINATED the fourth quarter and outscored Toronto 32-21 to earn a 102-99 win and take a 2-0 lead in the series. Marcus Smart made FIVE 3-pointers in just a span of 3:04 in that final period, totaling 16 of his 19 points for the game in that span. "We're pretty pissed right now," Raptors guard Kyle Lowry said after the defeat "We're down 0-2. But we have to go back and look at the film and understand what we've done wrong and look at what we can do better." Lowry shouldn't need to look at the film, as the box score tells us that he and VanVleet have combined to shoot a 'DISGUSTING' 6 of 35 (17.1%) from three-point range in the first two games!! Smart has filled in for the injured Hayward and has averaged 14.4 & 5.2 in his five starts (20.0 PPG in two games vs Toronto), while the trio of Tatum (27.2 & 9.3), Walker (22.-4.3-4.8) and Brown (19.8 & 6.0) just keep on keepin' on! I guess one could just 'close the book' on Toronto in this series by noting that Boston has had Toronto's number all season, winning FIVE of the six matchups. In the bubble, Toronto is 0-3 against Boston and 11-0 against everyone else. However, call me stubborn (that would be fair), but I like this Toronto team and its head coach Nick Nurse. The Raptors lost the first two games against the Bucks in the conference finals last postseason but won FOUR straight on their way to an eventual NBA championship. Yeah, Kawhi is now a Clipper but Toronto took Boston 'to the wire' last time, despite another HORRIFIC shooting performance, My bet says "the THIRD time's the CHARM!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-02-20 | White Sox v. Twins -142 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. The Minnesota Twins entered last night's game with the White Sox on a SIX-game losing streak. After opening 10-2, the Twins had fallen to 20-16, 2 1/2 games back of the first-place Whit Sox and 1 1/2 back of the second-place Indians. However, after falling behind 2-0 in the top of the first last night, the Twins shut out Chicago over the final eight innings to snap their six-game slide, 3-2. It was just Chicago's THIRD loss in its last 15 but coupled with Cleveland's 10-1 on Tuesday, the White Sox woke up this morning tied with the Indians for the AL Central lead, with the Twins 1 1/2 games back. The rubber game of this three-game series is set for tonight, as Jose Berrios (2-3, 4.75 ERA) takes on Reynaldo Lopez (0-1, 9.00 ERA). Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, he's had a disappointing start to the current season, as the Twins are just 3-4 in his starts, while he's got a 1.47 WHIP to go along with his near-5.00 ERA. Lopez has made just three starts in 2020 but while the White Sox have won two of them, it's HARD to ignore that the one loss came vs Minnesota back on July 26 when he got just TWO outs before being pulled after allowing FOUR runs. That 'ugly' effort v]can hardly be seen as a surprise, as Lopez is 1-5 with a 6.48 ERA in eight career starts vs Minnesota (team is 2-6). In STARK contrast, Berrios has dominated the White Sox in his career, going 11-2 with a 2.76 ERA in 15 career starts (Twins are 13-2, making this an 87% winning situation). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-02-20 | Nationals -114 v. Phillies | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Was Nationals at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies have opened this four-game series with the Washington Nationals with a pair of wins. The Phils won 8-6 on Monday and then 6-0 on Tuesday, a victory that moved them above .500 at 16-15. They continue this series again tonight tied with the Marlins, THREE games back of the division-leading Atlanta Braves. As for the defending champs, the Nationals have now lost EIGHT of 10 and find themselves in last-place in the NL East (12-21), EIGHT games back of the Braves. Taking the mound tonight will be Max Scherzer (3-1, 3.86 ERA) for the Nats, while the Phils counter with Zach Wheeler (3-0, 2.58 ERA). comes off his best outing of 2020, allowing six hits and one run over six innings with an 11-0 KW ratio. Scherzer said he adjusted his mechanics. "Made a tweak," he said about Friday's effort. "I saw some video where my hands were lower. I raised my hands and kind of squared up my shoulders and kept my left shoulder from rolling forward. And I felt like I was in a better direction. And I felt like that really allowed me to really just be able to execute high fastballs with a lot more ease." As for Wheeler, he is living up to the high expectations that came when he signed as a free agent in the offseason. He showed plenty of promise with the Mets these last few years and so far has opened 3-0 with a 2.85 ERA in six starts (Phils are 4-2). He's allowed two ERs or less in FIVE of his six starts this season, allowing a modest three ERs in the other one. The Phils are playing better ball at the moment but Wheeler hasn't fared well against the Nationals in his career, going 5-10 with a 5.01 ERA in 18 starts (team is 7-11). In STARK comparison, Scherzer is 11-3 with a 2.62 ERA in 20 career starts against the Phillies, with his teams going 16-4 (note: he's 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA at Citizens Bank Park). Washington, behind Scherzer, is the play! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-02-20 | Blue Jays -130 v. Marlins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Tor Blue Jays at 6:40 ET. The Miami Marlins were the first team to have a major COVID-19 outbreak and did not play a game from June 27 through August 4. Miami has since had THREE more games postponed due to the virus on other teams, yet currently find themselves at 16-15, just THREE games back of NL East leaders Atlanta (not bad for a team which was an NL-worst 57-105 in 2019). As for the Blue Jays, they lost a three-game series in Philadelphia due to COVID-19 concerns on the Phillies and then joined the Red Sox in protesting an August 27th game. The Blue Jays were not allowed to play their home games in Canada and didn't begin 'hosting' games at Buffalo's Sahlen Field until August 11, Through it all, Toronto is a respectable 18-16 but the Jays are stuck in the AL East, which features the 25-12 Rays and 20-14 Yankees. Wednesday's pitching matchup features Toronto left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-1, 2.92 ERA) going up against Miami rookie right-hander Sixto Sanchez (1-0, 2.25 ERA).Ryu went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with LA last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with the Dodgers that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but had a red-hot August. He allowed one run or less in all five of his August starts, posting a 1.29 ERA, with Toronto going 4-1. He took a no-decision in that lone team loss, a game the Rays won 2-1 in 10 innings. Sanchez is a 22-year-old rookie who has pitched in two major league games (none against Toronto), and he has been impressive both times. His four-seam fastball averages 98.6 and his sinker averages 97.6 mph. That said, we still know little about Sanchez, while Ryu has a 56-34 career record and a 2.98 ERA since arriving in the majors back in 2013. He also has had excellent success vs Miami, going 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA in five career starts (teams are 4-1). Greta spot for Toronto to win, as the Jays get the sad-sack Red Sox for FIVE games from Thursday through Sunday. 12-24 Boston is tied with the LAA Angels for the AL's worst record and the Blue Jays have a GREAT opportunity to close the gap in the AL East this week. First things first. Toronto wins tonight! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks -5 | Top | 116-114 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Mil Bucks at 6:30 ET. he Milwaukee Bucks knew the Heat would be a tough opponent, as Miami had won TWO of three regular season meetings between the two teams plus the Heat were coming off an impressive 4-0 sweep of the Pacers (also 4-0 ATS), in which they held Indiana to just 100.8 PPG. The Bucks sure didn't want a repeat of their Game 1 opener against Orlando in the first round, when the 14-point underdog Magic shocked the Bucks, 122-110. Milwaukee jumped out to a 40-29 lead at the end of the first quarter on Monday but it was ALL Miami after that, as the Bucks turned that 11-point deficit into an 11-point victory (115-104). Milwaukee needs to 'hit reset' here in Game 2, much like the Bucks did in immediately turning the tables on the Magic, romping 111-96 in Game 2 of that series (the first of FOUR straight double-digit wins). Miami's Jimmy Butler scored 40 points in Game 1 (a career playoff-high), while PG Dragic scored 27 and PF Adebayo added 12-17-6. Giannis just missed a triple-double (18-10-9) but made just 4 of 12 FTs, contributing to Miami outscoring Milwaukee 25-14 from the line (note: Giannis had averaged 30.6-16.0-6.0 vs Orlando. The good news was Middleton played his best game of the playoffs with 28 points and Brook Lopez chipped in 24 points. Here's the rub, "short & sweet!" Milwaukee went an NBA-best 56-17 on the season, while Miami was a much more modest 44-29. Milwaukee's been the NBA's best team in each of the last two seasons (went 60-22 last year) and losing streaks have been RARE! How rare? Beginning at the start of the 2018-19 season, the Bucks had gone a remarkable 29-1 SU and 23-7 ATS after a loss, BEFORE losing three straight right before the shutdown. The Bucks showed no interest in their eight regular season games in the bubble but this is the playoffs. As noted, off that Game 1 loss to Orlando, the Bucks won by 15. Here, there is no double-digit pointspread to cover, so expect the Bucks to win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-01-20 | White Sox -109 v. Twins | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chi White Sox at 8:10 ET. The Indians won the AL Central from 2016-18 but despite 93 wins in 2019, lost out to the Twins, who won 101 games for the first time since they won 102 games on their way to the 1965 World Series (lost that one in seven games to Sandy Koufax and the Dodgers). Cleveland and Minnesota were expected to vie for the AL Central title again in 2020 but there were some who warned, "Watch out for the White Sox!" On first glance that seems silly, as since winning the 2005 World Series, the White Sox have made just ONE postseason experience (2008) and over the previous three seasons (2017-19), had finished 35, 29 and 28.5 games out of first-place, respectively. However, a check of the AL standings on the morning of Sep 1 finds the 22-13 White Sox atop the division, one game up on the Indians and 2 1/2 games up on the Twins. Chicago beat Minnesota 8-5 last night, giving the White Sox 12 wins in their last 14 games (Chicago was just 10-11 in game played through ). In stark contrast, the Twins opened the current season 10-2, before going a modest 10-8 over their next 18 games. The Twins seemed 'stuck in neutral' during that span (Aug 6-24) but things have fallen apart for Minnesota, recently. Last night's defeat made it SIX consecutive losses for the Twins. The teams play the second contest of this three-game series tonight, as Michael Pineda (0-0, 0.00 ERA) takes on Dallas Keuchel (5-2, 2.70 ERA). Pineda will make his 2020 debut on Tuesday night. Pineda made his MLB debut with Seattle back in 2011 but was traded to the Yankees in 2012. Injuries kept him sidelined until 2014 when he made 14 starts, going 5-5 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. However, from 2015-17, he was just 26-26 with an ERA of 4.56. Tommy John surgery sidelined him in July of 2017. Pineda signed a two-year, $10 million contract with the Minnesota Twins in December of 2017 but would not pitch at all in 2018 due to a torn meniscus in his right knee.. He was 11-5 (4.01 ERA) for Minnesota in 2019 but his season was cut short when he received a 60-game suspension for testing positive for hydrochlorothiazide. This marks ho=is first start since Sep 6 of last season. What to expect? Who knows? Keuchel won the Cy Young award in the AL during the 2015 season (20-8, 2.48 ERA) but over the next three seasons was a modest 35-28 (3.99 ERA) for an outstanding Houston team. He was a free agent in 2019 but couldn't find a taker until Atlanta signed him on June 7, 2019 him to a one year $13 million deal. Was he worth it? You make the call! He went 8-8 with a 3,75 ERA in 19 regular season starts (team was 10-9). Atlanta then lost BOTH of his postseason starts. I was skeptical of Keuchel coming into 2020 but he's proved me wrong. He has a decision in each of his seven starts (see above) and enters this contest off THREE straight wins during which he's posted a 2.29 ERA. I'll back him here against the 'free-falling' Twins, who start can only counter with Pineda, who HAS to be considered an unknown quantity at this time. Keuchel owns a 1.04 WHIP in 2020 (best WHIP came in his Cy Young-winning season of 2015 at 1.02) and his BAA of .204 is a career-low! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-01-20 | Islanders v. Flyers +108 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 108 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Phi Flyers at 7:00 ET. The New York Islanders took a 3-1 lead in their series against the Philadelphia Flyers when Jean-Gabriel Pageau (a trade deadline addition) scored the tie-breaking goal in the third period of a 3-2 win on Sunday night. The Islanders entered the NHL's 24-team expanded playoff as the Eastern Conference's seventh seed and advanced past the 10th-seeded Florida Panthers 3-1 in the qualifying round. They the KO'D the Metropolitan Division champion Capitals 4-1. Now, the Isles are ONE win away from reaching the conference finals for the first time since 1993! The Flyers had 89 points in the regular season (NYI had 80) but went 3-0 in the seeding round, giving them the East's No. 1 seed. Philly got past Montreal 4-2 but now find themselves in a position in which they must win THREE in a row vs the red-hot Islanders to 'stay alive.' History says three straight wins are unlikely, as teams trailing 3-1 are 29-284 (9.3 percent) in winning a best-of-7 Stanley Cup Playoff series, including 0-6 in the first round this season! However, while coming back to win this series is CLEARLY a longshot, winning Game 5 is NOT! The Flyers went with Brian Elliott in goal on Sunday and he allowed three goals on 30 shots (.909). I'd be really surprised if Philadelphia head coach Alain Vigneault didn't turn back to Carter Hart in goal. The second-year pro went 24-13-3 (2.42 GAA & .914) in the regular season and improved on those numbers since the Aug 1 restart, allowing 2.08 GAA with a .931 SP in 11 games (7-4-0). Getting back to Alain Vigneault, he has directed comebacks from down 3-1, before. He guided the New York Rangers back from a 3-1 deficit to defeat the Penguins in the 2014 second round and his Rangers did it again in 2015, when a 3-1 deficit didn't stop New York from beating the Washington Capitals in the second round. Is a THIRD comeback from down 3-1 in the cards? That may be a 'bridge too far' but a Game 5 win is my bet. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-01-20 | Cardinals v. Reds -148 | Top | 16-2 | Loss | -148 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (NL Central) is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 10:00 ET Tuesday morning. | |||||||
09-01-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -1 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Tor Raptors at 5:30 ET. The Toronto Raptors were DOMINATED by the Boston Celtics in Game 1 of their second round series, 112-94. All five Boston starters finished in double digits, with Tatum and Smart leading the way with 21 points apiece. Meanwhile, Toronto starters shot a combined 4 of 25 from three-point range, including 3 of 16 by VanVleet and Lowry. Raptors head coach Nick Nurse summed up the defeat saying, "Tough day for us, right? Nothing was much fun out there today. They were great. We weren't very good. So we're going to have to bounce back." I guess maybe this was no surprise. Boston has now won seven consecutive Game 1s, the longest such streak for the Celtics since taking 11 consecutive 1-0 series leads between the start of the 1985 playoffs and the 1987 NBA Finals. As for Toronto, the Raptors have lost Game 1 in 14 of their last 18 series! Want more? Toronto is 0-2 against Boston at Disney, losing by a combined 40 points and not leading for a SINGLE moment in those two games. BTW...The Raptors are 11-0 at Disney against everybody else! I 'bit' on Toronto in Game 1 and 'got burned' but I will NOT shy away from playing them here in Game 2. The Raptors' starting-five against the Nets consisted of guards VanVleet (21.3-4.0-7.8) and Lowry (12.5-7.0-4.8), SF Anunoby (9.0 & 5.5), PF Siakam (20.8-7.8-4.8) and center Gasol (6.3 & 4.5). PF Ibaka (19.8 7 10.3) and SG Powell (17.5-4.-4.5) both had HUGE series coming off the bench. I noted how poorly Van Vleet and Lowry shot in Game 1 and I'll add Siakam's poor effort (13 points on 5 of 16 shooting plus only 3 rebounds and 2 assists) here. Ibaka had 15 & 9 and Powell 10 points but combined to shoot just 8 of 22 from the floor (36.4%). Boston did EVERYTHING right in Game 1 plus got a HUGE game from undersized center Theis, who 13 points and 15 rebounds. Can they possibly play that well again and can Toronto possibly play that poorly again? The Celtics are now 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the postseason but my bet is that we see the Toronto team we've seen for most of this season in this one, the team that was 57-19 SU and 44-31-1 ATS prior to Sunday's Game 1. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-31-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +6 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the OKC Thunder at 9:00 ET. The Rockets and the Thunder were each 44-28 in the regular season and met in this first round series as the West's No. 4 (Hou) and No. 5 (OKC) seeds, respectively. Houston won Games 1 and 2 easily but OKC rebounded with a 119-107 OT win and then a 117-114 victory. The Rockets had excellent opportunities to win in each of those two games but were eventually done in by poor three-point shooting and the terrific play of OKC's PGs Schroder and Paul (duo combined for 111 points in the back-to-back wins). Game 5 was played Saturday and the good news for Houston was that Russell Westbrook made his first appearance in the series. Westbrook was NOT a big factor with a line of 7-6-7 in 24 minutes. The key was Harden breaking out of a shooting slump by making 11 of 15 shots (31 points), while Covington scored 22 points (he had averaged just 8.0 PPG the first four games). As for OKC, the Thunder starters shot 1 of 21 on threes, while the entire team made only 7 of 46 (15.2%). Paul was "off his game" (16-6-3), while Schroder was tossed after playing just 21 minutes (he did have 19 points). OK, has Houston re-established itself with Game 5's 114-80 rout? Was Game 5's 'ugly' shooting performance by OKC due to Houston's D or did OKC just 'stink out the joint?' Not only did Paul and Schroder under perform but rookie Luguentz Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Danilo Gallinari were all "worse than AWFUL.' Dort, whose defense has contained Harden for the first three games of this series, made just 3 of 16 shots. Gilgeous-Alexander was 2-for-8 for four points and Gallinari missed all five points while scoring ONE point. Note that Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 17.0 PPG on the season, while Gallinari averaged 15.2. I believe OKC bounces back in a big way here and remember that while both teams went 44-28 during the regular season, OKC was also an NBA-best 44-28 ATS, while Houston was only 33-39. Take the points and don't be surprised if we are headed for a Game 7. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-31-20 | Rays v. Yankees -140 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -140 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Game of the Month is on the NY Yankees at 7:05 ET. The NY Yankees were the clear favorite to represent the AL in the 2020 World Series before this 60-game season began on July 23, while the LA Dodgers held a similar position in the NL. As the month of August comes to a close, the Dodgers have "held up their end" with a MLB-best 26-10 record, FIVE games better than any NL team (note: LA's plus-90 run-differential is 48 runs better than any MLB team). As for the Yankees, they opened 8-1 and were 16-6 in games played through Aug 17 but suddenly lost SEVEN in a row. New York has rebounded to win THREE in a row over the weekend, edging the Mets on Saturday when the Yankees won 2-1 on a wild pitch in the 9th and then sweeping a doubleheader on Sunday (both games were won in the 8th-inning of scheduled seven-inning games). Coming to the Bronx on Monday for a three-game series are the Tampa Bay Rays. The 24-11 Rays currently own the AL's best record and enter this series having won 18 of their last 21 contests, giving them a 3 1/2 lead over New York in the AL East. The two division rivals have already played SEVEN times, with the Rays taking SIX of them (won 3 of 4 at Tropicana Field from Aug 7-9 and swept a 3-game series at Yankee Stadium from Aug 18-20). Taking the mound in the first contest of this three-game series will be Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow (1-1, 5.14 ERA) and New York's Gerrit Cole (4-1, 3.51 ERA). Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of The Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). However, he made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. He's made six starts in 2020 and his ERA has ballooned to 5.14 and his WHIP is up to 1.36 (Rays are 4-2). Cole was brilliant in his two seasons with the Astros (208 and 2019), going 35-10 with 602 Ks in 412.2 innings. His WHIP in 2018 was 1.03 and in 2019 was 0.89 (BAA was .198 in 2018 and .186 in 2019). He famously signed a $324 million contract with the Yankees on December 16, 2019, the largest contract in major league history for a pitcher. Cole has continued his excellent pitching in 2020 with the Yankees (0.95 WHIP with a 53-8 KW ratio and a .204 BAA). However, Cole entered his last start (Aug 26 in Atlanta) trying to become the first AL pitcher to win 21 straight regular-season decisions. The all-time record is 24 by Carl Hubbell, followed by Roy Face (22). Cole, Roger Clemens, Jake Arrieta and Rube Marquard were tied at 20. Cole allowed five ERs in five innings, taking a 5-1 loss. He also saw his streak of 28 consecutive regular-season starts with a loss end (Clemens holds the record with 30 straight!). In this COVID-19 shortened season of 60 games, division rivals play each other 10 times. With SEVEN meetings already in the books (remember, Rays lead the series 6-1), this three-game series will be the final regular season games between the Rays and Yanks. Pretty safe to say that this is a "must-win" series for the Yankees and which pitcher would you want on the mound if you were facing this scenario? Key Yankee regulars are getting back on the field and who better to take the mound in Game 1 of this series than Cole? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-30-20 | Indians v. Cardinals +113 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 113 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET. The Cleveland Indians won THREE straight AL Central titles from 2016-18 but despite winning 90-plus games for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, the Indians' 93 wins left them EIGHT games behind the AL Central champion 101-61 Minnesota Twins (101-61). The Indians opened the current season just 5-6 but Cleveland's won 11 of its last 14 and at 21-12 now sit atop the AL Central. The Twins opened the current season 10-2 but have gone just 10-12 after that hot start and at 20-14, now find themselves 1 1/2 games back of the Indians (don't forget the White Sox, who are 20-13). The St Louis franchise is well-familiar with winning, as the Cards captured a World Series title in 2006 and then again in 2011.That 2011 season was the first of FIVE straight playoff appearances for the Cards but while the team posted winning season in each year from 2016-18, St Louis failed to reach the postseason. That changed in 2019, as the Cards won the NL Central with a 91-71 record and advanced to the NLCS where they ran into the red-hot Nationals and got swept. A COVID-19 outbreak had the Cardinals away from the playing field from July 31 through Aug 14. The Cards returned to play on Aug 14 and went 8-5 through their first 13 games but enter this contest having lost FIVE of six, including FOUR straight (Cards sit 11-13). The teams conclude their three-game series this afternoon, after the Indians won 14-2 on Friday (20 hits) and then with the two teams accounting for only NINE hits (Cleveland had five), the Indians eked out a second straight win in St Louis 2-1 in 12 innings. Taking the mound on Sunday will be Aaron Civale (3-3, 3.15 ERA) for Cleveland and Adam Wainwright (2-0, 2.88 ERA) for St Louis. Civale made 10 starts for Cleveland in 2019 (his first) and posted a 2.34 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. However, he had little to show for it, going 3-4 (Indians went 5-5). Civale has pitched well again in 2020, posting a 3.15 ERA and 1,03 WHIP but still checks in at only 3-3. St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. The Cards won Wainwright's first three starts of 2020 (2.00 ERA) but he took a no-decision in his last outing, a 5-4 StL loss (7 IP / 4 ERs). I like the veteran Wainwright to keep the Cards from getting swept at home by the Indians, going up against the 25-year-old Civale. The Indians have surged into first-place in the AL Central but the teams' hitting woes remain an issue. Cleveland was hitting just .217 as a team entering this series and while the Indians explode for 14 runs on 20 hits in Friday's romp, it was 'back to usual Saturday, getting just FIVE hits in 37 ABs (.137), The TWO runs were enough to beat St Louis yesterday, although the Cards missed some great scoring opportunities in extra-innings to score. "PERFECT" spot for the veteran Wainwright to lead the Cards to a win. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -2 | Top | 112-94 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Series Opener (Bos/Tor) is on the Tor Raptors at 1:00 ET. I first posted this back on Wednesday (a scheduled Thursday tip-off) but as EVERYONE knows all games scheduled from Wed-Fri were postponed due to a protest by NBA players. This Game 1 is now slated to be the first of THREE games played on Sunday. NOTHING about my game analysis has changed! The Celtics and Raptors are BOTH coming off 4-0 sweeps, Boston taking down longtime rival Philadelphia, while the Raptors cruised past the over-matched Nets. PF Tatum (27.0 & 9.8) is just 22 and SG Jaylen Brown (21.5 & 5.8) only 23. That duo, along with vet PG Kemba Walker (24.3-4.3-3.8), have led the way for Boston. The loss of SF Gordon Hayward (17.5-6.7-4.1 in the regular season) was lost after an injury in Game 1 and remains out for this series. Marcus Smart was inserted into the starting lineup for Hayward and averaged 12.0-4.0-3.0. The Celtics used their center combo of Theis (8.5 & 3.8) and Kanter (5.5 & 6.0) successfully against Philly. The Raptors' starting-five consists of guards VanVleet (21.3-4.0-7.8) and Lowry (12.5-7.0-4.8), SF Anunoby (9.0 & 5.5), PF Siakam (20.8-7.8-4.8) and center Gasol (6.3 & 4.5). PF Ibaka (19.8 7 10.3) and SG Powell (17.5-4.-4.5) both had HUGE series coming off the bench. Lowry is battling an injury (he's listed as day-to-day) and as his above numbers indicate, they are down from his season averages of 19.4-5.0-7.5. Boston has won THREE of the four meetings with Toronto during the regular season, including a 122-100 rout on Aug 7. However, I believe that only serves as extra-motivation for the defending champs. Obviously, a 100%-healthy Lowry would be preferred (maybe the extra rest will help?) but VanVleet has become an elite player and is a more consistent shooter than Lowry. The Celtics didn't miss Hayward vs the Sixers but his absence will be felt against this foe. The Raptors, led by Kawhi, won the franchise's first-ever title last season but sans Kawhi (as well as Danny Green), this year's Toronto team looks every bit a contender for back-to-back titles. I will back them in a big way in this Game 1. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-30-20 | Twins -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -124 | 5 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is a run-line play on the Min Twins at 1:10 ET. Minnesota won the AL Central in 2019, finishing 101-61. It was the franchise's first 100-win season since 1965, a year the Twins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. In stark contrast to Minnesota's 2019 season, the Detroit Tigers were a MLB-worst 47-114 in 2019. Minnesota opened the current season 10-2 but after losing both ends of Saturday's doubleheader in Detroit, has now gone just 10-12 over its last 22 games. At 20-14, the Twins have not only fallen behind the 21-12 Indians for first-place in the AL Central (by 1 1/2 games) but the 20-13 White Sox have also caught and passed them. Detroit surprised by opening the current season 9-5 but the Tigers then lost NINE in a row from Aug 11-20. However, after yesterday's doubleheader sweep, the Tigers have suddenly won SIX of their last eight (Detroit is currently 15-16). Detroit will try to complete a sweep of a three-game home series against Minnesota Twins on Sunday, sending rookie Casey Mize (0-1, 7.04 ERA) to the hill to face Minnesota's Kenta Maeda (4-0, 2.21 ERA). Minnesota's acquisition of Kenta Maeda from the Los Angeles Dodgers in February has turned into one of the better offseason moves by any MLB team. Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games), but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief in last year's run to the World Series but the trade to Minnesota gave Maeda the opportunity to return to a full-time starting role. He made that clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. So far, so good. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his six starts, with Minnesota going 5-1. The lone loss came at Pittsburgh on when Maeda left with a 5-3 lead, only to see the bullpen allow THREE runs in the final two innings (no-decision for Maeda). The Detroit Tigers selected Mize with the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft back on June 25, 2018. He inked a deal with the Tigers that featured a $7.5 million signing bonus. He began 2019 in Lakeland and was the Opening Day starter. After making four starts for Lakeland with an 0.35 ERA, the Tigers promoted Mize to the Erie SeaWolves of the Class AA & in his first start for Erie, he tossed a no-hitter. He began the current season in the minors but was promoted to the major league on August 19 and made his MLB debut that evening against the Chicago White Sox. He lasted just 4.1 innings in his debut (allowed three ERs on seven hits) and got a no-decision in a 5-3 Detroit loss. He wasn't any better in his second start this past Monday, going 3.1 innings while allowing four runs (three earned) on five hits, taking the first loss of his career (Chicago won 9-3). Yes, it's just two starts but a 7.04 ERA, a 1.83 WHIP and a .333 BAA makes one say 'O-U-C-H!' Maeda has taken on the role Minnesota's 'ace' and what ace's do is 'stop the bleeding." I'm laying the 1 1/2 runs. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-29-20 | Dodgers v. Rangers +140 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month (IL) is on the Tex Rangers at 7:05 ET. The LA Dodgers arrived in Arlington, Tx with MLB's best record (24-9) and its best run-differential plus-86). I read Friday morning on ESPN.com (Buster Olney) that those numbers translated into a 117-win season and a plus-422 run differential over a 162-game schedule. However, the Rangers, who entered last night just 11-19, came away with a 6-2 win. It's Game 2 of this three-game set and a win tonight (or Sunday) would give the Rangers their first series win since they took TWO of three from Colorado (Aug 14-16). The 24-10 Dodgers and 12-19 Rangers are hardly comparable teams but I'm backing the Rangers tonight because of the pitching matchup (or should I say, pitching mismatch). LA's Ross Stripling (3-1, 5.46 ERA) will take the mound going up against Lance Lynn (4-0, 1.59 ERA) of Texas. This is Stripling's fifth season with the Dodgers and he entered 2020 with a 20-24 record (3.51 ERA) over 136 appearances (52 starts). He's been a regular part of LA's starting rotation so far and the Dodgers have won FIVE of his six starts, despite his 5.46 ERA and 1,42 WHIP. I guess it helps when one pitches for a team leading all of MLB in runs scored (190) and HRs (63). Moving over to the Texas side of tonight's pitching matchup, we find nine-year veteran Lance Lynn. He's logged almost 1400 innings over 254 appearances (230 starts) with a 102-68 record (3.52 ERA in his career). Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. He's only allowed just eight ERs in his seven starts with an 0.86 WHIP and .156 BAA against to go along with that 1.59 ERA. Note that in his career, opponents have batted ,243 against Lynn, so he's nearly 100 points below that here in 2020! The Rangers were 10-1 in Lynn's home starts in 2019 and 3-0 in his four home starts here in 202 (team is 4-0). Texas enters this game 15-5 in Lynn's 20 home starts since he became a Ranger. What is notable about this particular start? It just might be the last for Lynn in a Rangers' uniform. He is rumored to be one the most likely players to be traded by Texas before Monday's deadline (Texas currently sits five games out of a playoff position). "No team wants to be dismantled as we get going here," Lynn said, according to MLB.com, after he beat Oakland 3-2 this past Monday. "We played well for a stretch, and then we played really bad. We didn't all come here to lose and not make a run at the playoffs. That's what we are all about." I will NOT pass on Lynn at this 'juicy' price! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-29-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -4.5 | Top | 80-114 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the Hou Rockets at 6:30 ET. The OKC Thunder had to like their chances against the Houston Rockets heading into this first round series, as former Thunder star Russell Westbrook (27.2-7.9-7.0) was expected to be sidelined for the entire series with a quad injury (more later). However, the Rockets would dominate the first two games of the series, winning 123-108 and 111-98. Harden (29.0-8.0-6.0) led the way but FIVE other Houston players averaged double digits in the first two contests. Meanwhile, the Thunder shot just 44.2 percent as a team. Veteran Chris Paul just missed a triple-double in Game 1 (20-10-9) but he recorded an 'ugly' minus-36 rating in Game 2 (14-6-2), the WORST of anyone on the court! Another big key to OKC's lack of success was the play of backup PG Dennis Schroder, who missed the first six of OKC's first eight games in Orlando. He was back for this series but he averaged just 9.5 PPG and 4.5 APG the first two games (he averaged 18.9 & 4.0 in the regular season). However, as the series resumes on Saturday for Game 5, it's all tied at two and Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder are two of the biggest reasons behind the Thunder making this a best-of-three series. Paul and Schroder, the Thunder's starting and backup PGs, were not often on the floor together for most of this season. However, Oklahoma City head coach Billy Donovan has elected to go to a small lineup, with those two being the primary beneficiaries. Paul and Schroder combined to average 26.5 points and shoot 39.7 percent from the floor as OKC fell behind 0-2 but in the last two games, the duo has combined to average 55.5 points, while shooting 52.6 percent (Paul's had 26 points in both Games 3 & 4, while Schroder chipped in 29 and 30 points, respectively. Houston has leaned heavily on a small lineup since the trade deadline, making up for what it lost in rim protection by switching relentlessly on "D" and wearing opponents down on the perimeter. It worked perfectly in Games 1 and 2. However, in the OT of Game 3, Donovan took out center Steven Adams and went with a lineup where 6-foot-10 Danilo Gallinari, the best three-point shooter on the Thunder, was their biggest man on the floor. Speaking of three-point shots, the Rockets have set a playoff record this series for most three-point attempts. They 58 from behind the arc in Monday's loss to break the record they had set with 56 tries in Game 2. Harden remains Houston's leader, averaging 32.0-7.8-8.8 but with this Game 5 being pushed back from Wednesday to Saturday because of the protests, Russell Westbrook is expected to play. Westbrook went through full-speed, 5-on-5 action on Thursday and looked "as explosive as ever." All reports are, he WILL play. Plus, as noted above, FOUR others are averaging in double digits. The big surprise has been 12-year veteran Jeff Green. he was signed by the Houston Rockets to a 10-day contract on Feb 18, 20202, after being waived by Utah. The Rockets announced that they had signed Green for the remainder of the season in late February and he's been Houston's second-best player this series, averaging 19.3 PPG. Yes, OKC has won back-to-back games but Houston could have won either one. Houston led by four points into the 4th-quarter in Game 3 and led by FIVE (102-97) with less than one minute to go. House tied the game at 104-104 with 9.5 seconds left but missed the second free throw. The game went to OT, where the Thunder outscored the Rockets 15-3. In Game 4, Houston led by one with about 1 1/2 minutes left (108-107) but lost 117-114. In the end, the Rockets need Harden to "come up big." He went 6-for-13 from behind the arc in the opener but he's lust 11-for-39 (28.2 percent) from behind the three-point line over the last three games. I expect "just that." The bonus is the likely return of Westbrook. How much he actually contributes is unknown but either way, expect the Rockets to make it a convincing win in Game 5. NO late-game missteps in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-29-20 | Indians v. Cardinals -115 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the StL Cardinals at 1:15 ET. The Cleveland Indians won THREE straight AL Central titles from 2016-18 but despite winning 90-plus games for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, the Indians' 93 wins left them EIGHT games behind the AL Central champion 101-61 Minnesota Twins (101-61). The Twins opened the current season 10-2 but have gone just 10-10, since. The Indians opened 5-6 but after a 14-2 win at St Louis on Friday night, have caught the Twins atop the AL Central at 20-12 (Cleveland's won 10 of its last 13). The St Louis franchise is well-familiar with winning, as the Cards captured a World Series title in 2006 and then again in 2011.That 2011 season was the first of FIVE straight playoff appearances for the Cards but while the team posted winning season in each year from 2016-18, St Louis failed to reach the postseason. That changed in 2019, as the Cards won the NL Central with a 91-71 record and advanced to the NLCS where they ran into the red-hot Nationals and got swept. A COVID-19 outbreak had the Cardinals away from the playing field from July 31 through Aug 14. The Cards returned to play on Aug 14 and went 8-5 through their first 13 games but enter this contest having lost FOUR of five, including THREE straight (Cards sit 11-12). Saturday's starting pitchers will be Cleveland's Carrasco (2-3, 4.50 ERA) and the St Louis' Jack Flaherty (2-0, 1.98 ERA). Carrasco was coming off back-to-back strong seasons entering 2019, having gone 18-6, 3.29 ERA and 17-10, 3,38 ERA, respectively. Carrasco took the mound back on May 30, 2019 against the Chicago White Sox but only days later, was diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, a blood disorder that threatened his life. He spent the next three months battling leukemia before returning in September to pitch out of the bullpen. He made 11 appearances, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs in 15 innings (6.60 ERA). However, Carrasco and the Indians beat KC 9-2 on July 27, as he won his first start in 423 days! His first three starts of 2020 went well, as he allowed just five ERs over 18 innings (6 IP in each), for a 2.50 ERA and had 23 Ks in those 18 innings. As for his last three starts? NOT so good. He has lasted more than 4.1 innings in any of them, allowing 10 ERs over 12 innings for a 7.50 ERA. He has 16 Ks in those 12 innings but he's also allowed NINE walks! The Cards' Flaherty made just six appearances (five starts) back in 2017 but joined the rotation full-time in 2018, going 8-9 with a solid ERA (3.34) and WHIP (1.11). He was superb in 2019, despite a modest 11-8 record over 39 appearances (33 starts). His ERA was 2.75, his WHIP 0.97 and his BAA was .192. Like most (all?) St Louis starters, Flaherty is still building arm strength since the team's 17-day COVID-19 shutdown. However, he's 2-0 in three starts (Cards are 3-0) in 202, posting a 1.98 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and .160 BAA. Neither starter has a history against their opponent (one start for each pitcher), so I'm going with "current form." Carrasco may just not be back to 100% (he sure hasn't looked that way his last three), while arm strength or not, Flaherty's numbers are TERRIFIC. My bet says Carrasco wishes those Cleveland bats had saved some of those runs (14) and hits (20) from last night's game. Sorry, it doesn't work that way. The Cards are the play. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-29-20 | Lightning v. Bruins +102 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Afternoon Delight is on the Bos Bruins at 12:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 8:00 ET Saturday morning. | |||||||
08-28-20 | Padres -108 v. Rockies | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 8:40 ET. The San Diego Padres are coming off a 70-92 season in 2019 (36 games back of LA) but they are hoping that a shortened 60-game season (and an expanded playoff format) would allow them to break a drought of 13 consecutive non-playoff years, as well as NINE straight losing seasons. San Diego opened 6-2, went 5-5 in its next 10 but then lost FIVE in a row. However, the Padres have rebounded to win EIGHT of their last 10 and are back in "playoff position" at 19-14. The Colorado Rockies were just 71-91 in 2019 (35 games back of the Dodgers) but surprised all by opening 11-3, However, at 12-5, Colorado would lose 10 of its next 11 games, including SEVEN in a row from Aug 17-23. The Rockies welcome the Padres to Coors Field having won THREE in a row at Arizona, missing a chance at a four-game sweep when Thursday's game was postponed due to the many protests all sports are dealing with. Colorado is back above .500 (16-15) but will be tested in this four-game home series with San Diego. Friday's pitching matchup features two starters that have each pitched VERY well in 2020, Zach Davies (4-2, 3.03 ERA) of San Diego and Kyle Freeland (2-1, 2.87 ERA) of Colorado. Davies' best season was back in 2017 with Milwaukee (17-9, 3.90 ERA) but he went just 12-14 over 44 starts in 2018 and 2019. He was traded to San Diego this past offseason and the Padres are VERY happy with the way he's pitched. Davies has allowed more than two ERs in just two of his six starts (both times he allowed only three ERs) plus owns a superb 0.84 WHIP, while holding opponents to a .183 average. Freeland went 11-11 (4.10 ERA) as a rookie in 2017 and then had a breakout 2018 season. He was 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA, as the Rockies went 23-10 in his 33 starts. However, he was AWFUL in 2019, going 3-11 with a 6.73 ERA & 1.58 WHIP with Colorado going 8-14 in his 22 starts. So what's up in 2020? Freeland has pitched at least six innings and allowed no more than three runs in each of his SIX starts this season. Colorado won his first four starts but have lost his last two (3.75 ERA in those two team losses). I feel as if Davies owns a slight edge over Freeland but what is more important to me here is, the overall play of the two teams. While the Padres come in having won EIGHT of their last 10, the Rockies had lost SEVEN straight before winning three in a row over an Arizona team that currently owns an EIGHT-game losing streak. Note: Colorado's three wins over the D'backs in Arizona all came by just ONE run! "The Price is Right" on San Diego in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-28-20 | Braves v. Phillies -140 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Phillies decided not to play the finale of their three-game series against the Nationals on Thursday, just a few hours before the first pitch. After the unexpected day off, the Phillies will begin a three-game series against the visiting Atlanta Braves on Friday, looking for a FOURTH straight win. This marks the final regular-season series between the two NL East rivals, with the Braves owning a 4-3 edge in the series so far. Atlanta has won the NL East in each of the last two seasons and is coming off an impressive sweep of a doubleheader against the NY Yankees, 2-1 and 5-1 on Wednesday. The Braves had a regularly scheduled day off on Thursday and enter Friday looking for their third straight win and fifth in six games. The Braves are currently 18-12, two games up on the 14-12 Marlins and four up on the 12-14 Phillies. Tonight's starting pitching matchup is a 're-hook' from last Friday night, when Philly's Zack Wheeler (3-0, 2.76 ERA) squares off against Atlanta's Robbie Erlin (0-0, 5.14 ERA). Neither pitcher earned a decision last Friday in Atlanta's 6-5 win. Wheeler is living up to the high expectations that came when he signed as a free agent in the offseason. He's pitched into at least the sixth inning in ALL five of his 2020 starts, including a seven-inning effort (allowed five hits and two ERs) last Friday in Atlanta. Erlin's in his 7th season and has made a modest 111 appearances (just 40 starts) and will take a 13-20 career mark (4.60 ERA) into this contest. Erlin was released by the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates three weeks ago and selected off waivers by Atlanta on Aug 7. After one relief appearance, he's made back-to-back starts, pitching four scoreless innings against Miami on Aug 16, before going four innings again vs Philly last Friday (allowed two ERs). Wheeler seems poised to fulfill his high expectations, while Erlin is the VERY definition of a journeyman. I REALLY like Wheeler in this quick turnaround! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-27-20 | Reds -129 v. Brewers | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cin Reds at 5:10 ET (Game 1). The Brewers, Cards and Cubs are typically "the usual suspects" in the NL Central but more than a few were touting the Reds as a 'sexy' pick in that division in the shortened 2020 MLB season. However, the Cubs have been atop the division since Opening Day and at 18-11, are three games up on the 10-9- Cards, who have missed so many games due to a COVID-19 outbreak. The Brewers and Reds were each 11-15 when they opened this four-game series at Miller Park on Monday but Milwaukee has won 4-2 (Mon) and 3-2 (Tue), moving to 13-15 (4 1/2 games back of the Cubs), while the Reds have dropped to 11-17, 6 1/2 games back of Chicago. These division rivals meet in the third contest of this four-game series tonight with the Reds now just 2-6 on their 10-game road trip, while the Brewers come in off consecutive home victories for the first time in the 2020 season (opened the series on a season-high FOUR-game losing streak). Gray (4-1, 2.21 ERA) gets the nod for Cincy and Milwaukee counters with Adrian Houser (1-2, 3.72 ERA). Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yankees going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray has done a nice job in 2020, considering the fact that the Reds are floundering at 11-17. To go along with his 2.21 ERA, he owns an 0.98 WHIP (51-13 KW ratio) and an opponent's BAA of .176. Milwaukee's Houser opened the season with just 44 career appearances (18 starts) and a record of 6-7 (3.63 ERA). He allowed just ONE run over 12 innings while going 1-0 in his first two 2020 starts (0.75 ERA) but in his three starts since, has allowed 11 ERs on 20 hits over 17 innings (5.82 ERA). Gray's shortest outing of 2020 came at Milwaukee back on Aug 9 when he lasted 5.1 innings, allowing four runs, six hits and three walks during a 9-3 loss to the Brewers. It's the only blemish on his record and I 'LOVE' him to bounce back here, against the struggling Houser. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-26-20 | A's -140 v. Rangers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout is on the Oak A's at 8:05 ET. The Texas Rangers snapped an eight-game losing streak with their 3-2 win over the Oakland A's on Monday (BTW...Texas with Lynn was my Ultimate Underdog Play). However, the A's made it NINE losses in their last 10 games for the Rangers last night, with a 10-3 rout of Texas. The teams play the third game of this four-game series on Wednesday, with Oakland owning the AL's best record (21-10) and Texas 'limping along' at 11-18. Oakland owns a four-game lead over the three-time defending division champion Astros, while the Rangers are already NINE games back at the season's mid-point. It seems like 'light years' ago that Texas played in back-to-back World Series but actually it was 2010 & 2011. The Rangers entered this 60-game season off THREE straight losing seasons (223-263, .486) and will likely finish even worse this season, as their 11-18 mark gives them a winning percentage of only .379. Taking the mound tonight will be Oakland's Mike Fiers (3-1, 5.81 ERA), opposed by Texas lefty Kolby Allard (0-2, 7.82 ERA). Fiers is making his seventh start of the year and even though his numbers are off from 2019, the A's are 5-1 in his six starts (more in a bit). He set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland but his ERA is too high in 2020 (5.81), as is his WHIP (1.55) and BAA (.305). However, he faces a VERY poor Texas team, while pitching for the team with the AL's best record. His mound opponent is the untested Allard, who in four starts has lasted just 12.2 innings while allowing 11 ERs on 17 hits. To go along with his 'ugly' 7.00-plus ERA, he has a 1.82 WHIP and an opponent's BAA of .315. Allard didn't make it out of the first inning in Seattle last Friday, allowing four runs in a 7-4 loss. He will either open the game on the mound or be the bulk pitcher in an opener strategy. Want more? When Fiers takes the mound, the A's usually win. Here's the rub. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), Fiers has made 49 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 36-13 (.735) in those contests! Any reason NOT to play the A's and Fiers? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-26-20 | Twins +100 v. Indians | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 10:00 ET Wednesday morning. | |||||||
08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 111-154 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the LA Clippers at 9:00 ET. The seventh-seeded Dallas Mavericks were considered a long shot to get past the second-seeded Los Angeles Clippers in this best-of-seven series. However, despite injuries and ejections, the Mavs find themselves tied at two-all with the Clippers, turning this into a best-of-three series. Luka Doncic put the Mavericks on his shoulders in Game 4, despite playing on a tender left angle and with Kristaps Porzingis (averaged 20.4 & 9. 5 during the regular season) out with a sore right knee. He led Dallas back from a 21-point first-half deficit and capped a 43-17-13 triple-double by hitting a game-winning three-pointer at the overtime buzzer in a 135-133 Maverick victory. In the process, he became the youngest player in NBA history with a 40-point triple-double during the playoffs. LA's Kawhi Leonard had 32 & 9 for the Clippers and has been his usual dominant self this series, averaging 33.0-10.0-5.0, while connecting on 50 percent of his shots. However, LA's other superstar (Paul George), has seemingly 'lost his cape!' George is averaging a modest 15.3-7.3-3.8 through four games, while shooting an abysmal 29.0 percent, including 22.2% on threes. The Clippers would likely be on the verge of closing out the series, if George had played to expectations. Instead, the Clippers are faced with a HUGE Game 5. However, let's NOT forget that even with an under-performing George, LA built a 21-point lead in Game 4 vs Dallas. The good news for Dallas is Porzingis had an MRI following the game on Sunday and the results were negative. However, Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle said Monday that he is still a game-time decision for Game 5. The NBA playoffs rarely produce a "surprise champion" and there were (are) very few who didn't believe that this year's champion would come from a 'pool' of just four teams. Those being Milwaukee and Toronto in the East and the two LA teams in the West. The Raptors have already swept their first round opponent, while the Bucks and Lakers (the league's two No. 1 seeds) both lead their respective opponents, 3-1. OK Clippers, it's your turn to "turn it up a notch." I'm laying the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-25-20 | Reds v. Brewers -109 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Mil Brewers at 8:10 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Tuesday morning. | |||||||
08-25-20 | Bruins v. Lightning -104 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the TB Lightning at 7:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Tuesday morning. | |||||||
08-24-20 | Lakers v. Blazers +7.5 | Top | 135-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Por Blazers at 9:00 ET. The Blazers went 6-2 in the Orlando 'bubble' and then secured the No. 8 seed in the West by beating the Grizzlies 126-122 in the Play-In game. Portland has been led by Bubble MVP Damian Lillard. Talk was, the Lakers could be had, after some lackluster play in their eight games in Orlando, pre-playoffs. The Lakers clinched the West's No. 1 seed back on Aug 3 and then went just 1-4 (0-5 ATS) the rest of the way, needing a Kyle Kuzma shot at the buzzer to capture their lone win. Lillard had 34 points in Game 1 vs the Lakers, leading a balanced attack that saw McCollum score 21 points while center Jusuf Nurkic (17.9 & 11.8 in Orlando) added 16 & 15. Nurkic's backup, Hassan Whiteside, chipped in 7 & 8, with his plus/minus of plus-13 ranking 2nd to only Lillard's plus-19 for the game. Defensively, Portland held the Lakers to 35.1 percent shooting from the floor, including 15.6 percent from three-point range (5 of 32!). A.D. had 28 & 11 and LBJ added his 24th career playoff triple-double (23-17-16) but LA's dynamic duo combined to shoot 1 of 10 on threes. LA's starters shot a combined 3 of 23 on threes. Kuzma, LA's only other consistent scorer during the regular season, added 14. LA's center combo of McGee and Howard (10 points / 13 rebounds) was outplayed by Nuric alone, not even adding in Whiteside's contributions. All of a sudden, the Lakers DID look very vulnerable, while Lillard and the Blazers were becoming 'the story' of Orlando. However, things can turn on a dime in the world of sports. I made a HUGE play on the Lakers in Game 2 and they responded with an 111-88 win. LBJ had a modest line of 10-6-7 but A.D. had 31 & 11 plus the Lakers shot 47.8% as a team. Nurkic contributed just 9 & 8, while Lillard and McCollum combined for only 31 points and shot 2 of 12 on threes. The big story entering Game 3 was Lillard's health, as he had dislocated the index finger on his left hand in the third quarter. Lillard had 34 points in Game 3, while McCollum added 28 but Nurkic was again a non-factor (10 & 7). Meanwhile, LBJ bounced back with a line of 38-12-8 and A.D. wasn't far behind (29-11-8). Overall, LA shot 50.0% as a team in the 116-108 win. So here we are in Game 4, where the Blazers can square it at two-all, or LA can open up a commanding 3-1 lead. I'm not sure that Portland can even the series but taking the points looks very 'juicy.' Lillard can still "make the plays" with his injured left hand but the Blazers will NEED Nurkic to play MUCH better plus the bench CAN'T contribute just EIGHT points again, like it did in Game 3. When LBJ and A.D. play like they did in Game 3, the Lakers "two-man" team looks good enough to win a championship but I still see the Lakers as having way too many 'holes.' After all, even with 'monster' games from their two superstars AND a 28-18 edge in made FTs, the Lakers only won Game 3 by EIGHT points. I expect this contest to come "right down to the wire," taking more than a 'TD' seems HUGE! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-24-20 | Reds -135 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch of the Month is on the Cin Reds at 8:10 ET. The Brewers, Cards and Cubs are typically "the usual suspects" in the NL Central but more than a few were touting the Reds as a 'sexy' pick in that division in the shortened 2020 MLB season. The Cubs have been atop the division since Opening Day and at 17-10, are three games up on the 9-8 Cards, who have missed so many games due to a COVID-19 outbreak. The Brewers are 11-15, as are the Reds, Both sit 5 1/2 games back of Chicago, as the division rivals open a four-game series at Miller Park on Monday night. Cincinnati has gone 2-4 to start a 10-game road stretch, while Milwaukee returns home trying to halt a season-high FOUR-game losing streak Taking the mound for the Reds will be Trevor Bauer (3-0, 0.68 ERA), while the Brewers counter with Brett Anderson (1-2, 3.71 ERA). Let me cut right to the chase! Anderson's in his 12th season and sports a 60-63 record with a 4.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and .274 BAA. Can you say journeyman? He pitched rather poorly in his first three starts of 2020 (team was 0-3 and he posted a 4.91 ERA) but he's off his first win of the season last Wednesday, allowing just one run over six innings of a 9-3 win at Minnesota. Turning to Bauer, he had a decent run with Cleveland from 2016-18, going 41-23 with a 3.57 ERA but his 'bark' has always been bigger than his 'bite!' He was traded from Cleveland to Cincy last season and in 10 starts went 2-5 with a 6.39 ERA (Reds were 3-7). That said, Bauer's big mouth was at it again, as he talked about how eager he was to begin the 2020 season for the Cincinnati Reds. Well, so far, he's backed up his words. He leads all of MLB in ERA (0.68), owns an 0.57 WHIP (41-7 KW ratio) and has held opponents to an .093 BA. I'm "all over" Bauer here up against Anderson! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-24-20 | A's v. Rangers +130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 130 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog at 8:05 ET. The Oakland Athletics just completed a brief five-game homestand 4-1 and now sit 20-9 overall, giving them the AL's best record (A's have won 10 of their last 11 at home). However, the A's take to the road on Monday to begin a 10-game road swing, starting with four games at Globe Life Field in Arlington against the Rangers. As for the Rangers, they return home after a disastrous five-game road losing trip to San Diego and Seattle, extending what is now a season-worst EIGHT-game losing slide. Texas sits 10-17 and already find themselves NINE games back of the first-place A's in the AL West. Then again, considering Texas finished 29 games behind the division-winning Astros in 2019 (as well as 19 games behind second-place Oakland), it wasn't as if the Rangers were expecting to be playing postseason baseball this October. The ONLY thing favoring the Rangers in this contest is the pitching matchup, as Oakland's Jesus Luzardo (2-0, 3.67 ERA) squares off against Lance Lynn (3-0, 1.37 ERA) of Texas. Luzardo made six relief appearances for Oakland last season and in 12 innings posted a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP. He's made four starts for the A's in 2020 and the A's have won all four. he's had just one poor start, allowing six ERs in just 3.1 innings at San Francisco on Aug but Oakland won that game 8-7 (10 innings), In his other three starts, he's allowed just two ERs over 17 innings (1.06 ERA). Luzardo's been pretty good but he's only pitched 39 innings in his career. In stark contrast, Lance Lynn is in his 9th season, logging almost 1400 innings over 253 appearances (229 starts) with a 101-68 record (3.52 ERA). Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. He's only allowed six ERs in his six starts with an 0.81 WHIP and .146 BAA against to go along with that 1.37 ERA. Note that in his career, opponents have batted ,243 against Lynn, so he's nearly 100 points below that here in 2020! OK, it's still Oakland (an excellent team) vs Texas (a poor one0 but in three home starts, the rangers are 23-0 with Lynn owning a .106 ERA and .123 BAA. That may sound familiar? He went 10-1 at home for the Rangers in 2019. I'm backing Lyn n and 'taking the price,' as I expect Texas to snap that EIGHT-game losing streak tonight. You with me? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-24-20 | Twins -103 v. Indians | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians won THREE straight AL Central titles from 2016-18 but despite winning 90-plus games for the fourth consecutive season in 2019, the Indians' 93 wins left them EIGHT games behind the 101-61 Twins. Minnesota won the AL Central in 2019, finishing 101-61. It was the franchise's first 100-win season since 1965, a year the Twins lost a seven-game World Series to Sandy Koufax and the LA Dodgers. Minnesota's lineup scored the second-highest run total in the majors (939), while leading all teams in HRs (307 represented a major league record!) and RBI. The Twins opened 10-2 in 2020 (including taking three of four in Minnesota vs the Indians) but were a more modest 13-8 by Aug 15. However, the Twins have won SIX of eight as they head to Cleveland for this three-game series with the Indians. Cleveland was just 10-9 through Aug 12 but will take a 17-11 record into this series, just 1 1/2 games back of first-place Minnesota. The Twins and Indians have had two of the best pitching staffs in all of baseball so far during this abbreviated season. The Indians entered Sunday second in MLB with a team ERA of 2.73, while Minnesota was fourth with a 3.46 team ERA. Taking the mound tonight will be Minnesota's Kenta Maeda (3-0, 2.27 ERA), while Cleveland will counter with Aaron Civale (3-2, 2.91 ERA). Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games), but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief in last year's run to the World Series but the trade to Minnesota gives Maeda the opportunity to return to a full-time starting role. Maeda made his main mark with the Dodgers in the bullpen in the playoffs. Only former teammate Kenley Jansen has made more postseason appearances over the last four seasons and Washington closer Sean Doolittle is the only pitcher with more than 10 postseason games to have a better ERA than Maeda's bullpen ERA of 1.64. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. He's been proving his point in five starts this season, going 3-0 (team is 4-1, with that lone loss coming when Maeda left with a 5-3 lead but the bullpen coughed up three runs in the 8th and 9th). Maeda takes the mound with not only a 2.27 ERA but an 0.63 WHIP (33-6 KW ratio) and a .128 BAA. Civale made 10 starts for Cleveland in 2019, going 3-4 with a 2.34 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .216 BAA (Indians were just 5-5 in his starts). His numbers are strong again this season, with a 2.91 ERA, an 0.97 WHIP and a .236 BAA. However, I'm not sure he's up to matching the red-hot Maeda, plus the Indians are a modest 7-6 at Progressive field so far this season. I'll 'ride' Maeda again in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-24-20 | Pacers +6.5 v. Heat | Top | 87-99 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Pacers at 6:30 ET. Miami recorded its THIRD straight win over Indiana with a 114-92 rout on Aug 10 in Orlando but the Pacers finally bested the Heat with a 109-92 on Aug 15. That broke a tie for fourth place in the Eastern Conference. However, all games are being played in Orlando, there IS no home court edge to go along with that No. 4 seed. The Heat controlled most of the play in each of the first two games of this series, winning 113-101 and 109-100. Miami then did so again in Saturday's 124-115 Game 3 on Saturday, a contest that was heavily impacted by free-throw shooting. The Heat went to the line 52 times and made 43, whereas the Pacers attempted just 28 foul shots and made 21. Miami has successfully held T.J. Warren to 19.7 PPG, after he averaged 31.0 PPG in the eight games prior to the start of the playoffs. The Pacers remain without their best player, Sabonis (out for the year), who averaged 18.5-12.4-5.0 before getting hurt. However, Malcom Brogdon has shined, averaging a team-best 24.3 PPG in the series, while also leads all clubs in assists with 33 through three games. Oladipo has also looked "more like himself" the last two games, scoring 22 and 20 points, respectively. Miami's basically gone to a seven-man rotation and the Heat have ridden balanced scoring to take a 3-0 lead. FIVE players are all averaging 15-plus points. The group includes starters Butler (24.3-6.0-4.7), Dragic (22.7-5.7 APG), Adebayo (15.3-8.7-5.0) and Duncan Robinson (15.0), plus Kentucky rookie Herro (16.7), who comes off the bench. NO way the Pacers come back to win this series but four-game sweeps are rare when featuring comparable opponents. The third-seeded Celtics completed a sweep over the sixth-seeded 76ers on Sunday but failed to cover. This is a 4 vs 5 matchup (remember, Indiana is the 4-seed) and I see the Pacers bringing their "A-game" to this win or go home contest. Upset alert? I wouldn't call an Indiana win here an upset. Take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-23-20 | Nuggets +3.5 v. Jazz | Top | 127-129 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Den Nuggets at 9:00 ET. Utah missed a great opportunity to 'steal' Game 1 against the Nuggets (lost in OT), when even Donovan Mitchell's 57 points weren't enough. However, everything has clicked for the Utah Jazz on offense and defense these last two games. The Jazz have overwhelmed the Nuggets on both ends of the court in back-to-back games, averaging 18 made three-pointers per game, while shooting 45 percent or better from behind the arc in both Game 2 and Game 3 wins. The Nuggets are a mess on defense (have allowed 124.3 PPG in the series) plus have struggled to find a consistent rhythm on offense the last two contests. After scoring 135 points in Game 1's OT victory, Denver has been held to 96.0 PPG in the two losses (Nuggets averaged 111.3 PPG during the regular season). Denver continues to miss two starters, SF Barton (15.1-6.3-3.7) and SG Harris (10.4), who happens to be the team's best perimeter defender. Are those losses too much to overcome? I am NOT ready to concede that. Jokic was his usual self in the first two games (28.5-10.4-4.5) but he had just 15 points in Game 3. Jokic had a breakout postseason last year and I expect a HUGE game from him here. PG Murray and the ever-improving Michael Porter Jr. should also be MUCH better in Game 4. Mitchell had those 57 points in the Game 1 loss but in Utah's two wins, scored 30 and 20 points. Center Rudy Gobert (20.0 & 9.3) has at least played Jokic to a draw so far and PG Mike Conley had a HUGE game on Friday. Conley led Utah with 27 points in its Game 3 romp (returned from a two-game absence), shooting a career-best 7-of-8 from three-point range. However, Conley has been erratic all season, shooting only 40.9% during the regular season, including 37.5% on threes. It's my bet that Utah will NOT replicate its performance from the last two games, when the team shot 51,7% (20-of-44 on threes) and 51.2% (18-of-37 on threes), respectively. Denver gained valuable playoff experience by playing in two, seven-game series in the 2019 postseason (beat the Spurs / lost to the Blazers) and I expect them to lean on that here. Expect Jokic and Murray to be "at their best" as the Nuggets tie this series at two-all. Take ANY points available. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-23-20 | Angels v. A's -124 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Oak A's at 4:10 ET. The Oak A's opened the 2020 season by hosting AL West rival, the LA Angels. The A's won three of the four games but then lost THREE in a row. However, the A's quickly turned things around and had gone 15-4 since ending that three-game slide. The A's were 18-8 on the season when they welcomed the Angels to Oracle Park for a three-game series on Friday night. The Angels have taken quite a different path than A's in the 2020 season. The Angels entered this weekend series having lost SEVEN of their last eight and a "check in the mirror" revealed their record to be the exact inverse of the A's, at 8-18. Oakland won 5-3 on Friday but the Angels earned a 4-3 victory at Oakland on Saturday, snapping their four-game losing streak plus ending Oakland's nine-game home winning streak (more in a bit). The teams get set to play the rubber match of this three-game series on Sunday and the A's are 19-9, while the Angels again check in with the EXACT inverse record at 9-19. The Angels will send right-hander Dylan Bundy (3-2, 2.48 ERA) to the mound, while the A's will counter with right-hander Frankie Montas (2-2, 4.74 ERA). I'm not sure what to make of Bundy, who's looked decent in 2020. However, I well-remember the pitcher who has gone 8-16 with a 5.45 ERA and 7-17 with 4.79 ERA in 2018 and 2019, respectively (pitching for the Orioles). The Dodgers traded Montas to the Oakland Athletics prior to the 2016 season but he did not get a call to the majors in 2016. He then appeared in 23 games for the A's in 2017 (all in relief). Montas reverted to being a starter, beginning the season at the AAA level. He appeared in 13 games (11 starts) with the A's during the season, compiling a 5–4 record with a 3.88 ERA. However, he after started the 2019 season 9–2 with a 2.70 ERA in 15 games (all starts), before being suspended 80 games without pay for testing positive for a banned substance. Montas opened the current season 3-1 with a 1.57 ERA but after dealing with some back tightness, returned to the rotation to make his first start in nine days back on Aug 18. It's fair to say he showed a little 'rust,' allowing nine ERs on six hits (two HRs) in just 1.2 innings of a 10-1 loss. However, reports are that Montas is just fine. I noted above that the A's had their nine-game home winning streak snapped on Saturday but that still give s them a 12-4 home mark in 2020. No surprise there, after going 52-29 and 50-31 the previous two seasons at home. As for the Angels, they are 4-10 (.286) away from Anaheim, on pace to do even worse than last year's 34-47 (.419) road mark. A's get back to winning at home, taking this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-23-20 | Astros -110 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Hou Astros at 4:10 ET. The Houston Astros came to San Diego's Petco Park on an EIGHT-game winning streak but the Padres welcomed Houston to town having followed a five-game slide with a four-game winning streak of their own. Something had to give and entering Sunday, it's the Astros who have 'broken.' The Padres ended Houston's eight-game winning streak Friday night with a 4-3 win and then clobbered the Astros 13-2 Saturday night, homering SIX times (note: Padres have become the only team in history with five grand slams in a six-game span!). The Padres go for the three-game sweep and a 7th straight win in Sunday's finale, while the Astros look to regroup off last night's shellacking. Zach Greinke is 1-0 this season after FIVE starts. He deserves much better, as he has a 1.84 ERA, an 0.89 WHIP and a .208 BAA. He has allowed only six runs on 22 hits over 29.1 innings with a KW ratio of 25-4. How is it that Houston is just 2-3 in his starts? The Padres counter with the 21-year-old Adrian Morejon, who will be making just his second start this season. He made his first appearance of 2020 this past Tuesday in Texas, throwing three scoreless innings. The Padres will likely use at least three relievers Sunday because Morejon is not stretched out. Yes, the Padres are POUNDING' the ball but Greinke surely won't back down. He owns a 13-3 career record against the Padres with a 2.37 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP (161-32 KW ratio) in 25 starts (teams are 18-7). The Padres have a career .202 batting average with a .244 on-base percentage and a .319 slugging percentage in those Greinke starts. He's been even tougher against the Padres at Petco Park, where he owns a 2.24 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP and a .198 opponents batting average in 15 starts. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-23-20 | Celtics v. 76ers OVER 213 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* 1st Round Total of the Year is on Bos/Phi Over at 1:00 ET. The third-seeded Boston Celtics hope to complete a playoff-series sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers (No. 6 seed) in Game 4 of their best-of-seven series on Sunday afternoon. Boston scored Game 3's final 10 points on Friday, walking away with a 102-94 win. Here's how the game turned down the stretch. Embiid gave the 76ers their last lead of Game 3 at 94-92 on two free throws with 2:14 remaining but with the 76ers having a chance to add to their lead, he attempted a cross-court pass out of a double-team. The ball was intercepted by Marcus Smart and turned into a three-point play by Jaylen Brown for a 95-94 advantage for the Celtic. Philly had a chance to retake the lead on their next possession but Embiid's off-balance jumper was blocked by Jayson Tatum, who was then fouled in the open court, resulting in a clear-path infraction and two free throws. He made one and when Kemba Walker buried a 20-footer with 1:05 left on the Celtics' ensuing possession, Boston was up four and headed to a commanding series lead. And so it goes. Boston's Hayward was lost for the series in Game 1 but Boston has produced a trio of 20-point scorers in this series, Tatum (26.7 & 8.0), Brown (23.3 & 6.0) and Walker (21.7-4.3-3.7). Smart has replaced Hayward in the starting lineup the last two games and has averaged 12.0-6.0-2.5. Philly began the series with Simmons and Embiid has been the 'big dog,' averaging 30.0 & 13.0. Regular starters Richardson (17.7 & 4.0) and Harris (14.3 & 11.0) have played well enough, as has Milton (14.7), who has replaced Simmons. Philly was counting on Horford to step up his game come playoff time but that hasn't been the case. He's averaging 30.7 MPG (has started two of the three) but is averaging just 5.3 & 6.3 (averaged 11.9 & 6.8 in the regular season. Many feel as if the 76ers are 'toast' and that head coach Brett Brown "is as good as gone." However, the 76ers have had real chances to win in BOTH Games 1 and 2. Philly had a chance to win Game 1, leading 79-75 into the 4th quarter and trailed by just THREE with under a minute to go in the game. I've also detailed the team's late-game collapse in Game 3, above. Embiid was dominant in the first half during Game 3, racking up 22 points and 10 rebounds while going 6-for-11 from the floor. However, he would shoot just 1-for-9 from the floor in the second half, finishing with 30 points and 13 rebounds. Here's the rub. Embiid's been the MVP of the series in the first halves, averaging 19.0 points on 59.4-percent shooting while adding 8.7 rebounds. However, he's been held to 29.2-percent shooting in the second halves, scoring 11.0 and grabbing a modest 4.3 rebounds. Boston/Philly is the league's oldest rivalry (the franchises are meeting for the 21st time in the postseason) and the simple fact is that the Celtics last swept the 76ers in a playoff series was back in the 1957Eastern Finals, when the franchise played as played as the Syracuse Nationals. I 'm NOT predicting that the 76ers can come back and win but I don't see them going down without a fight in this one. For that to happen, the 76ers will HAVE to score more than the pathetic 98/7 PPG they've averaged through the first three games of the series. That's NOT a stretch, as Philly averaged 110.7 PPG during the regular season. In this "win-or-go-home" game, expect Philly to at least reach that season average which means, this one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-23-20 | Celtics v. 76ers +8 | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (Atlantic) is on the Phi 76ers at 1:00 ET. The third-seeded Boston Celtics hope to complete a playoff-series sweep of the Philadelphia 76ers (No. 6 seed) Game 4 of their best-of-seven series on Sunday afternoon. he Boston scored Game 3's final 10 points on Friday, walking away with a 102-94 win. Here's how the game turned down the stretch. Embiid gave the 76ers their last lead of Game 3 at 94-92 on two free throws with 2:14 remaining but with the 76ers having a chance to add to their lead, he attempted a cross-court pass out of a double-team. The ball was intercepted by Marcus Smart and turned into a three-point play by Jaylen Brown for a 95-94 advantage for the Celtic. Philly had a chance to retake the lead on their next possession but Embiid's off-balance jumper was blocked by Jayson Tatum, who was then fouled in the open court, resulting in a clear-path infraction and two free throws. He made one and when Kemba Walker buried a 20-footer with 1:05 left on the Celtics' ensuing possession, Boston was up four and headed to a commanding series lead. And so it goes. Boston's Hayward was lost for the series in Game 1 but Boston has produced a trio of 20-point scorers in this series, Tatum (26.7 & 8.0), Brown (23.3 & 6.0) and Walker (21.7-4.3-3.7). Smart has replaced Hayward in the starting lineup the last two games and has averaged 12.0-6.0-2.5. Philly began the series with Simmons and Embiid has been the 'big dog,' averaging 30.0 & 13.0. Regular starters Richardson (17.7 & 4.0) and Harris (14.3 & 11.0) have played well enough, as has Milton (14.7), who has replaced Simmons. Phily was counting on Horford to step up his game come playoff time but that hasn';t been the case. He's averaging 30.7 MPG (has started two of the three) but is averaging just 5.3 & 6.3 (averaged 11.9 & 6.8 in the regular season. Many feel as if the 76ers are 'toast' and that head coach Brett Brown "is as good as gone." However, the 76ers have had real chances to win in BOTH Games 1 and 2. Philly had a chance to win Game 1, leading 79-75 into the 4th quarter and trailed by just THREE with under a minute to go in the game. I've also detailed the team's late-game collapse in Game 3, above..Embiid was dominant in the first half during Game 3, racking up 22 points and 10 rebounds while going 6-for-11 from the floor. However, he would shoot just 1-for-9 from the floo in the second half, finishing with 30 points and 13 rebounds. Here's the rub. Embiid's been the MVP of the series in the first halves, averaging 19.0 points on 59.4-percent shooting while adding 8.7 rebounds. However, he's been held to 29.2-percent shooting in the second halves, scoring 11.0 and grabbing a modest 4.3 rebounds.Boston/Philly is the league's oldest rivalry (the franchises are meeting for the 21st time in the postseason) and the simple fact is that the Celtics last swept the 76ers in a playoff series was back in the 1957Eastern Finals, when the franchise played as played as the Syracuse Nationals. I 'm NOT predicting that the 76ers can come back and win the series but I will NOT count them out of salvaging a pride-saving win in Game 4. I want ALL those points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-22-20 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Goin' Over Total is on Tex/Sea Over at 9:10 ET. The Seattle Mariners beat the Texas Rangers 7-4 last night and the two AL West also-rans meet again tonight in the middle contest of a three-game series. Texas sits 10-15 (eight games back of the A's in the AL West), while Seattle's win gets them to 9-19, 10 1/2 games back of the A's but a half-game better than the last-place Angels. Neither team has much of an offense but BOTH pitching staffs have struggled in 2020. The Rangers are allowing 5.32 RPG (team ERA of 5.02) and the Mariners are allowing 5.71 RPG (5.61 team ERA). Getting right to tonight's pitching matchup, it's Jordan Lyles (1-2, 7.52) for Texas and Justus Sheffield (1-2, 4.12 ERA) for Seattle. Lyles has pitched for SIX teams since beginning his career in 2011. He was just 5-7 with a 5.36 ERA for Pittsburgh in 2019, when he was traded to Milwaukee. Why would the Brewers want him? After all, at the time of the trade, his career record was 36-59 (5.29 ERA). However, Lyles was brilliant down the stretch for the Brewers, going 7-1 with a 2.45 ERA in 11 starts (Milwaukee was 10-1). In the 'world' of baseball these days, he used the brief stretch to get a two-year, $16 million deal with the Rangers. Should we really be surprised that he's got a 7.52 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in five appearances (four starts) for Texas, so far? As for Sheffield, he's "on a roll!" After going winless in his first NINE major-league starts, he finally got untracked with a victory against Colorado on Aug 9, pitching six scoreless innings without walking a batter and striking out seven. He followed that with a no-decision in Houston but allowed just two runs (one earned) on six hits in six innings, with one walk and four strikeouts. Move over Gerrit Cole! This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-22-20 | Phillies -114 v. Braves | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Phi Phillies at 7:10 ET. The Atlanta Braves have won the NL East in each of the last two seasons and despite some SIGNIFICANT injuries here in 2020, enter Saturday 15-11 and atop the division once again. We are approaching the halfway point of his shortened 60-game season and as Yogi once said, "it gets late early out there." The Phillies are 9-13 and while they are just four games back, they should heed Yogi's advice. Atlanta regulars Acuna, Albies and Markakis are all on IL, while key starters Soroka and Hamels are out for the season (so is "King Felix"). Atlanta used its best starter in Friday's 11-2 win, as Fried pitched five innings of one-run ball to move to 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA (0.97 WHIP and .188 BAA). However, the Braves will hand the ball to Robbie Erlin for tonight's game. Erlin's in his 7th season and has made a modest 110 appearances (just 39 starts) and will take a 13-20 career mark (4.60 ERA) into this contest. Erlin (0-0, 5.40 ERA) was released by the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates three weeks ago and selected off waivers by Atlanta on Aug 7. After one relief appearance, he started against Miami this past Sunday and threw four scoreless innings, striking out five and allowing only one hit in a 4-0 win. Anyone really expecting a similar outing? Philadelphia counters with Zach Wheeler, who is living up to the high expectations that came when he signed as a free agent in the offseason. He showed plenty of promise with the Mets these last few years and so far has opened 3-0 with a 2.81 ERA in four starts (Phils are 3-1). Wheeler defeated the Mets this past Sunday, his team for the previous seven seasons. He went seven innings, allowing two runs on six hits, one walk and four strikeouts in the win. He's pitched into at least the sixth inning in ALL four of his 2020 starts for the Phillies. Wheeler over Erlin sets up my Game of the Week play on the Phillies. Good luck...Larry |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |