Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-10-20 | San Diego State v. Arizona State -2.5 | Top | 80-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* play is on Arizona St at 10:00 ET. No. 23 Arizona St (3-1) will host No. 24 San Diego St (4-0) Thursday night in Tempe. The Aztecs visit Desert Financial Arena having entered the AP poll for the first time this season on Monday, after opening unranked despite the fact that last season's team opened 26-0 and was 30-2 when the season was shut down for the virus. ASU was ranked 18th in the preseason poll. Brian Dutcher spent 18 seasons as an assistant to Steve Fisher (first at Michigan and then at San Diego St) and won 22 and 21 games in his first two seasons as SDSU's head coach, before last year's 30-win one. However, while he likely couldn't be "picked out of a lineup," that's NOT the case for ASU head coach Bobby Hurley, who starred for a Duke team which won back-to-back national championships (1991 and 1992) and is part of the Hurley legacy of coaches. This is Hurley's sixth season at ASU and he's led the team to an overall 93-69 (.574) record in his first five with two NCAA appearances which have produced ZERO tourney win Dutcher brought in transfers Malachi Flynn, Yanni Wetzell, K.J. Feagin, and Trey Pulliam, to mesh with returnees Matt Mitchell, Jordan Shackel, Nathan Mensah, and Adam Sieko, as the Aztecs put together one of their best seasons in program history last year. However, the Aztecs lost MWC player-of-the-year Malachi Flynn (17.6-4.5-3.1) to the NBA while Yanni Wetzell (11.6 & 6.5) transferred to Vandy and Feagin (9.1) has finished up his time with the program. The good news for Dutcher is that Matt Mitchell (12.2 & 4.8) flirted with the NBA draft but returned and is averaging 12.3 & 3.8. Jordan Schakel leads the team with 12.8 PPG, as NINE players are averaging between 6.0 and 12.8 PPG. The 6-6 Arop (7.3 & 5.0) and the 6-10 Mensah (7.0 & & 6.3) have been the top frontcourt contributors. Arizona State freshman Josh Christopher is averaging 17.5 & 4.3 has scored in double figures in all four games. Senior guard Martin is not far behind, averaging 17.3-3.0-4.0. Fellow senior Verge, who averaged 14.6 PPG last season, has missed two straight games because of COVID but returned to practice last Saturday and is expected to return to action against San Diego State. He averaged 15.0 & 5.5 in his first two games. Then there is 6-6 freshman Bagley, who has averaged 13.0 & 5.8 but suffered a lower-left leg injury in the Sun Devils' 70-62 victory at California last Thursday. "I'm very happy with where Marcus is and we've been very blessed and fortunate to get the medical (information) back that we did get back," Hurley said. "His Achilles (injury) is completely clean. It's intact. There were no strains or sprains or tears or anything to that area and that was my first initial thought when I saw him go down." This is the Aztecs' first road game and in their last outing, trailed Pepperdine by 16 points with 16:16 remaining, before eking out a 65-60. I don't expect them to be that lucky here at ASU. "The Price is Right" on the Sun Devils. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams -5 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Ls Vegas Insider Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The New England Patriots have won FOUR of their last five, including a 45-0 'spanking' over the Chargers last Sunday. That game was played SoFi Stadium and New England head coach Bill Belichick and his team celebrated that triumph by staying in Los Angeles and working out at UCLA as opposed to making a pair of cross-country flights, as the Pats are right back in SoFi Stadium on Thursday night to face the Los Angeles Rams. Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11 but as Week 14 dawns, the Rams and Seahawks are tied at 8-4 (Rams currently own the tiebreaker), while the Cards have fallen off the pace at 6-6. That Pats won 45-0 last Sunday in a game in which they gained just 291 of total offense. QB Cam Newton passed for only 69 yards but did have 48 rushing yards with two TDs. The Pats became the seventh team in league history to have a punt returned for a TD (70 yards) and a blocked field goal returned for a TD (44 yards) in the same game. New England did run for 165 yards and for the season have averaged 150.9 YPG on the ground (3rd in the NFL). However, Newton has been just AWFUL as a passer with just five TDs and nine INTs and a QB rating of 80.3 (among the worst of all QBs). The team's top-two pass catchers (Byrd and Meyers) have a combined 75 receptions and just one TD! New England's defense ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (14.1 PPG) and total defense (275.0 YPG) last season but even after last week's shutout, is allowing 21.3 PPG (NINE points per game more than LY) on 344.6 YPG (about 70 YPG more). Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for around 4,500 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 17-10 (QB rating of 93.7). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.2 YPG (ranks 9th) this season. Henderson, Brown and recently Akers have shared the ball carrying duties. Cam Akers ran 21 times for 72 yards and a TD in LA;s 38-28 win over the Cards but he has an ailing shoulder. Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown will fill in just fine if he's not 100 percent. While New England's top-two receivers have combined for just 75 catches, LA's Kupp has 74 catches and Woods 71. The TE duo of Higbee and Everett have a combined 66 catches with five TDs. As for defense, led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks fifth in scoring defense (20.3 PPG) and second in total defense (295.3 YPG). An important matchup will be New England's running game (150.9 YPG ranks 3rd) against LA's rush D, which allows 93.1 YPG (3rd-best). The Pats were just 1-4 SU on the road before last Sunday's 45-0 blowout, with their LONE win coming against the still-winless Jets, game game the Pats trailed 27-17 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-27 on a 51-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. A quick turnaround here vs a VERY good Rams team is NOT a good spot for the Pats. The Rams own impressive wins over Seattle and at Tampa Bay plus last week's 10-point win at Arizona over their last four games (loss came on a FG by the Niners on the final play of the game). Rams are the play! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-09-20 | Indiana v. Florida State -3 | Top | 67-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the week is on Florida St at 7:15 ET. The No. 20 Seminoles have played just one game but get tested tonight when 3-1 Indiana comes to Tallahassee as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge on Wednesday night for their first big test of the season. The Seminoles only game so far was an 86-58 home win over North Florida, which has opened 0-6. As for the Hoosiers, they are 3-1 but that loss was 'ugly,' falling 66-44 to current-No. 13 Texas. Archie Miller spent six years at Dayton, winning 20-plus games in five seasons. Over his final four at the school, the Flyers averaged 25.5 wins per season and went to four straight NCAA tourneys. He got the Indiana job beginning with the 2017-18 season and was just 16-15 and 19-16. However, last year's team was 2012 before the season was "called off!" Devontae Green (13.5 & 8.4) graduated and the 6-7 Justin Smith (10.4 & 5.2) transferred to Arkansas. This year's team is led by the 6-9 Jackson-Davis (21.5 & 7.0), senior guard Durham (12.0-4.7-3.0) and the 6-8 Thompson (11.5 & 7.5). Indiana is looking to build off its third-place finish in the Maui event at Asheville, N.C, which included wins over Providence and Stanford plus a loss to then-No. 17 Texas. The Hoosiers have been solid defensively so far this season, holding opponents to 61.5 PPG (50th) on 31.8 percent shooting (60th). Leonard is now in his 19th season with FSU and he's been greatly underappreciated (more later). Florida State was 26-5 and poised to make a Final Four run before the postseason was curtailed due to the COVID-19 pandemic but entered this season losing three key players from a team.PG Forrest (11.6-4.4-4.0), SG Vassell (12.7 & 5.1) and 6-7 swingman Williams (9.7 & 4.0) were all chosen in the NBA draft. MJ Walker is back (opened with 17 points) and is surrounded by a talented group. Frontcourt veterans like the 7-1 Koprivica had 13 & 5, the 6-8 Gray (8 & 5), the 6-9 Osborne (6 & 3) all 'warmed up' against North Florida plus returning guard Polite (7 points) and 6-9 freshman Braun (8 & 6) will be solid contributors. Here's the bottom line. Hamilton has built a championship-caliber program at Florida St, one that has produced the THIRD most victories among ACC schools behind Duke and Virginia since 2016. How many knew that? Indiana shot a putrid 23.9% against Texas (2 of 10 on threes) in its biggest test so far and if there is ONE thing Hamilton does get credit for it's his team DEFENSE! The Seminoles may just also remember losing last year's battle when the Hoosiers won 80-64 in Indiana behind a career-high 30 points from Devonte Green. No Green here and FSU wins "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-09-20 | Furman v. Cincinnati -3 | Top | 73-78 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* "It's 5 O'Clock Somewhere" Play is on Cincinnati at 5:00 ET. The Cincinnati Bearcats welcome the Furman Paladins to Fifth Third Arena for a 5:00 ET tipoff. The Bearcats lost the 88th meeting of what's known as the "Crosstown Shootout" on Sunday 77-69 to Xavier, giving them a 1-1 start to the current season. Meanwhile, Furman has opened 4-0 and the Bearcats are well aware that the Paladins are MUCH more than an early season non-conference foe. Bob Richey's team is favored by many to win the Southern Conference and have opened with victories by 33, 28, 40 and 24 points. He won 23 games in his first two seasons at Furman and then 25 in each of the last two, as his 73-26 record represents the best three-year run in school history. Last season's leading scorer was Jordan Lyons (16.4) and while he graduated, the other four starters returned. Starting for the Paladins this season are guards Bothwell (21.8-5.-4.0) and Hunter (11.0-3.5-3.3) plus the frontcourt features the 6-7 Mounce (12.8 & 5.5), the 6-9 Slawson (11.8-6.5-5.0) and the 6-8 Gurley (11.5 & 4.8). Add in two freshmen, the 6-9 Hien (8.0 & 4.3) and guard Foster (4.8 & 5.5) coming off the bench and Richey has another quality team. John Brannen led Northern Kentucky to a 72-30 record in his final three seasons, leading the Norse to the "Big Dance" in two of those three years. He was hired at Cincy on April 14, 2019 when Mick Cronin left for UCLA. The Bearcats went 20-10 in last year's pandemic-shortened season. Cincy is missing guards Jarron Cumberland (15.5) and Jaevin Cumberland (8.8) plus forward Tre Scott (11.4 & 10.5). The Bearcats were one of the last teams in Division I to start their season, not taking the floor until last Wednesday, beating Lipscomb 67-55. Guard Keith Williams (12.5-3.0-2.5) is Cincy's top scorer after two games but shaky shooting and two crucial missed free throws down the stretch prompted him to shoulder the blame for the 77-69 loss to crosstown rival Xavier on Sunday. "I came back to lead this team, so everything is on me," said Williams, who explored NBA draft possibilities after last season. "Defensively, offensively. I'll take this loss. I'll take this on the chin as a veteran." The Bearcats have great balance with five players in double digits. After Williams there is Michigan transfer DeJulius (12.0-5.5-5.0), 6-10 Ivanauskas (a Colgate transfer) averaging 10.5 & 6.0, returning guard Adams-Woods (10.5) and the 7-1 Vogt (10. & 4.0). John Brannen didn't 'pull punches' after the Xavier loss saying, "We gotta get better. Just as a whole, we gotta get better!" He emphasized his hopes for more steady leadership from Williams, as well as Chris Vogt. Vogt struggled to capitalize on his size advantage against the Musketeers, contributing six of his eight points in the first half while snagging just one rebound in 32 minutes. "I mean, Chris is 7-1, 260 pounds," Brannen said. "For him to have one rebound, that can't happen." Furman's a quality team but Cincy is a 'tough out' at home and I expect then to bounce back after that loss to Xavier! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-08-20 | Syracuse v. Rutgers -3.5 | Top | 69-79 | Win | 100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Rutgers at 9:30 ET. Rutgers and Syracuse play Tuesday night in the first meeting in almost seven years between the two schools. Both enter with identical 3-0 records, after Rutgers led wire-to-wire in a 70-56 non-conference win over visiting Hofstra, while Syracuse tied a school record by making 15 three-pointers in a 87-52 win over Rider. The difference in this meeting, from that one in 2013, is that Rutgers is the ranked team (at No. 21), not Syracuse. At least three Syracuse team members - two players and head coach Jim Boeheim - have tested positive for the coronavirus this season. Buddy Boeheim (Jim's son) averaged 15.3 PPG and scored 21 points in the team's season-opening win over Bryant but he hasn't played since and will NOT be eligible to return for this one. Throw in the fact that the 6-10 Bourama Sidibe continues to recover from meniscus surgery and Syracuse will be without two of its original starting five. SF Griffin (16.7-7.0-4.0), the 6-7 Guerrier (16.3 & 11.0) and the 6-10 Dolezag (10.3 & 6.7) will lead the Orange into this game with the Scarlet Knights. Steve Pikiell spent 11 years at Stony Brook, winning 20-plus games in his final five seasons. He led the Seawolves to an NCAA berth in 2015-16 and a 26-7 record. His first three seasons at Rutgers saw the Scarlet Knights go just 15-18, 15-19 and 14-17, before going 20-11 last season before the year was shut down. This year's team looks REALLY good, led by senior guards Harper (21.0 & 7.7) and Young (15.3 & 5.7 APG). Junior guard Mathis adds 15.3 & 4.0 plus two 6-11 centers, Omoruyi (8.7 & 7.3) and Johnson (7.3 & 5.7) give Rutgers a strong inside presence. Rutgers was ranked in the preseason (No. 24) for the first time since 1978 and has opened with three wins by double digits. Syracuse will be a tougher test but as noted, come to town less than 100%. This would be a confidence-building win for the Scarlet Knights and the team's record at the RAC (Rutgers Athletic Center) is a 'sweet' 21-2 SU since the start of last season. Lay the reasonable price! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-08-20 | Illinois v. Duke -3.5 | Top | 83-68 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Duke at 9:30 ET. In yet another ACC/Big Ten Challenge game on Tuesday, No. 5 Illinois will play at Cameron Indoor Stadium against No. 10 Duke. Both schools lost last week, as the Fighting Illinois fell 82-69 to No. 2 Baylor in Indianapolis, while Duke lost at home 75-69 to now-No. 4 Michigan State. Illinois head coach Brad Underwood made a big 'splash' at S.F. Austin and then made a one year 'pit stop' at Oklahoma St, before landing in Champaign-Urbana. The Fighting Illini were just 14-18 and 12-21 in his first two seasons but had a breakout year in going 21-10 before last season was shut down. I'd list Coach K's accomplishments but we'd be here all day. 6-5 junior Dosunmu is the Fighting Illini's best player, averaging 23.8-7.3-6.3 and is joined in the backcourt by freshman Miller (14.5). 7-0 center Cockburn had a terrific freshman season (13.3 & 8.1) and checks in at 13.8 & 9.8 through four games. Guards Curbelo (10.0), Frazier (9.0) and Williams (7.0 & 7.8) plus the 6-9 Bezhanishvili (7.5) complete the main contributors. Coach K lost his top-two players to the NBA, the 6-10 Carey (17.8 & 8.8) will play this season for the Hornets and PG Jones (16.2-4.7-6.4) was taken by the Spurs. Coach K has seamlessly transitioned into the One-and-Done era and freshman guard Stewart has opened averaging 11.3-4.7-3.3, while 6-9 freshman Johnson is averaging 13.0 & 8.7. The 6-9 Hurt (9.7 & 3.8 last season) leads the team this season with 19.0 PPG and 8.7 RPG. Guards Goldwire and Roach plus SF Moore are combining for 18.0 PPG, plus 6-8 freshman Brakefield is averaging 8.0 & 3.7 in just 12 minutes! Here's the rub. Duke has been the dominant school in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge, going 19-2. The Blue Devils have won EIGHT straight games as part of the series, while going 9-0 at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Speaking of Duke's record at Cameron, note that the Blue Devils' home loss to Michigan St on Dec 1 was just Duke's THIRD non-conference home loss since 2000. The pointspread is more than reasonable and I expect Coach K to win this one fairly comfortably. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-08-20 | Creighton v. Kansas -3.5 | Top | 72-73 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Kansas at 5:00 ET. Creighton was ranked No. 11 in the AP's preseason poll (the highest in school history) and after a 3-0 start is up to No. 8 as the Bluejays visit No. 7 Kansas, which is 4-1. Greg McDermott is now in his 11th season at Creighton and after tying for the Big East title last season and finishing 24-7, Creighton was picked to finish second behind Villanova in a preseason poll of league coaches. The Bluejays have used an eight-man rotation in the early going led by two juniors, the 6-7 Bishop (15.0 & 5.3) and 6-2 PG Zegarowski (12.3-3.0-7.0). SIX others chip in between 6.0 and 10.7 PPG. Note that 7-0 freshman Ryan Kalkbrenner (10.7 & 4.0) and 6-6 sophomore Antwann Jones (10.7-6.0-3.3) have both made big contributions off the bench. Key losses for Kansas entering this season were PG Devon Dotson (18.1-4.9-4.0) and the seven-foot Udoka Azubuike (13.7 & 10.5). However, two 6-5 guards are back, junior Ochai Agbaji (16.2) and senior Marcus Garrett (9.2 & 4.6), who is one of the nation's top defenders. 6-10 junior David McCormack has opened averaging 9.4 & 4.4 and 6-8 Justin Wilson, who has bounced back after suffering a broken ankle as a freshman last season, has been excellent (15.0 & 8.8). Kansas couldn't quite handle No. 1 Gonzaga (lost) but did beat then-No. 20 Kentucky, although with the Wildcats losing THREE in a row, that win doesn't seem like all that much. Bill Self is grateful for 6-7 JC transfer Tyon Grant-Foster, who had seen limited action until adding eight points and eight rebounds as Kansas avoided an embarrassing homecourt upset by North Dakota State on Saturday, winning just 65-61. To say the least, this visit to Allen Fieldhouse will be a competitive upgrade for the Bluejays after being favored by between 21 and 32 1/2-points over North Dakota State, Omaha and Kennesaw State. The Jayhawks got a real 'scare' by North Dakota St (Creighton was not all that much better in beating the Bison just 69-58) and should be primed for a matchup with the highly-ranked Bluejays. Top-10 matchups are nothing new for Kansas and I expect a win with "room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-07-20 | Bills +1 v. 49ers | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Buf Bills at 8:15 ET. The 8-3 Buffalo Bills and 5-6 San Francisco 49ers meet MNF at the home of the Arizona Cardinals, State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Az. The 49ers' home field is Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Ca and due to new COVID-related restrictions in Santa Clara County San Francisco's "home" games in Week 13 (Buffalo) and Week 14 (Washington) have been relocated to the Cardinals' home stadium. The Bills sit atop the AFC East but Miami's win on Sunday means that Buffalo needs to win here to stay one game up on the Dolphins. As for San Francisco, the defending NFC champs are currently in last place in the NFC West, although a win here would move them to 6-6 and into a tie with Arizona and Minnesota, just ONE game behind 7-5 Tampa Bay, which currently holds the NFC's final wild card spot. Buffalo enters the contest having won FOUR of five, with the lone loss having come at Arizona in Week 10 with what was an almost UNBELIEVABLE ending! The Bills got a much-needed bye in Week 11 Bills and returned in Week 12 with a 27-17 home win over Los Angeles Chargers behind a running and a passing TD from QB Josh Allen and a trick-play score on a 20-yard pass from Cole Beasley to fellow WR Gabriel Davis. Josh Allen is in his third season. He made great strides in his second season (2019) and began the current season as just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. He's come into his own in 2020, completing 68.8% for 3,028 yards with 22 TDs and eight INTs, while rushing for 311 yards with six TDs. His QB rating was 67.9 in his rookie season, 85.3 in 2019 and it's up to 102.3 in 2020. More importantly, he has the Bills at 8-3, putting them in position to capture their first division title since 1995. Allen doesn't get much support from his running game either, as the Bills are averaging just 10.4 YPG on the ground (21st). However, the addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE, as he leads the team with 80 catches (four TDs). Fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 57 through 11 games (on pace for 83). Buffalo's defense allowed just 16.2 PPG last season (2nd to only New England) on 298.3 YPG (3rd) but this season is allowing 25.6 PPG (about 10 points higher), on 373.1 YPG (about 75 yards more per game). The 49ers have struggled all season with significant injuries and Nick Mullens (67.5% for 1,642 yards with six TDs and seven INTs) will again get the start at QB with Jimmy G still sidelined. RB Mostert (772 yards on 5.6 YPC with eight TDs) has played just five games (346 yards), leaving McKinnon as the "best of the rest" with 315 yards on 3.9 YPC but does have five TDs and 27 catches. San Francisco upset the Rams 23-20 last Sunday and the good news was Mostert returned and WR Samuel returned to catch 11 passes for 133 yards but TE Kittle (37 catches leads the team despite him playing just six games) remains sidelined. The 49ers are averaging only 112.0 YPG on the ground (averaged 141.0 LY) and with Mullens and injuries to their receiving corps, are averaging only 23.7 PPG, down from 29.9 PPG last season. The Bills have steadily improved under head coach Sean McDermott and want to make sure they DON'T repeat last season 2-3 finish, when they were also 8-3 through 11 games. Buffalo controls its own destiny in the AFC East and after this game, has only one "sure win" in its four remaining games (Denver). The other three are against Pittsburgh (11-0), New England (has won FIVE of six) and Miami. "Big game" for the Bills and a win would be "just desserts" coming in the same stadium they lost that heartbreaker to the Cardinals! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-06-20 | Patriots v. Chargers -1.5 | Top | 45-0 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* AFC Game of the Year is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET. The 5-6 New England Patriots have won the AFC East 11 straight years (17 of the last 19) and last had a losing season back in 2000, going 5-11 in Bill Belichick's first season as the Pats' head coach. The Patriots visit LA on Sunday for a game with the 3-8 LA Chargers, having won THREE of their last four to get them to within one game of .500. The contest marks the first of a three-game road trip beginning with Chargers, then staying in LA for a Thursday night game with Rams in Week 14 and finishing up with a game at Miami in Week 15. "We are not where we need to be or want to be," said Belichick. "[A fast start] will be important this week. It's important every week." The Chargers will take the field having lost FOUR of their last five to fall to 3-8 in what was expected to be a rebuilding year. In fact, the matchup will be the first between the Patriots and Chargers NOT to feature either Tom Brady or Philip Rivers at QB since 1997. Brady famously left New England after 20 years and Rivers left the Chargers after 16 year to sign with the Colts. New England was counting on former MVP Cam Newton to lead the offense but has just FOUR touchdown passes in 266 attempts with nine INTs. He does have 387 rushing yards (9 TDs) for a running game that ranks fifth by averaging 149.6 YPG on the ground. However, the team's receiving corps is a pathetic group. Edleman is out with an injury (had just 21 catches after six games), while WRs Byrd and Meyers have 71 combined catches and just one TD reception. New England's defense ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (14.1 PPG) and total defense (275.0 YPG) but this season the Pats are allowing 23.2 PPG (that's NINE more per game) on 352.5 YPG. The Chargers lost Rivers but have found a "franchise" QB in Justin Herbert. He's completing 66.9% for 3,015 yards with 23 TDs and seven TDs (110.9 QB rating). WR Allen is having another brilliant season with 85 catches and seven TDs plus TE Henry has 48 catches with three TDs. The running game is no better than average (117.2 YPG ranks 11th) but the return of Austin Ekeler last week is GREAT news. He ran for 557 yards (3 TDs) and caught 92 passes (8 TDs) last season and last Sunday at Buffalo ran for 44 yards and caught 11 passes for 85 yards. The Chargers are allowing 27.3 PPG (25th) but a more modest 342.9 YPG (12th). The Chargers have blown double digit leads on a regular basis but I like them here vs the Pats. Yes, the Pats have won three of four but in five road games in 2020, they are 1-4 SU with their LONE win coming against 0-11 Jets, game game the Pats trailed 27-17 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-27 on a 51-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. Methinks the Pats have a VERY good chance of a losing season! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-06-20 | Eagles +9.5 v. Packers | Top | 16-30 | Loss | -119 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Phi Eagles at 4:25 ET. The Green Bay Packers are 8-3 and chasing the 9-2 Saints for the NFC's No. 1 seed. In stark contrast the Philadelphia Eagles are 3-7-1 but in the NFC 'Least,' they are just a half-game back of first place, as New York (Giants) and Washington are both just 4-7. Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers is having an impressive season (in a HOF career), throwing for 3,100 passing yards with 33 TDs and just four INTs (his QB rating of 117.5 is an NFL-best). As for Philly QB Carson Wentz is struggling. He entered this season having thrown EXACTLY seven INTs in each of the previous three years, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he's completing just 58.1% in 2020 with almost as many INTs (15) as TD passes (16). Philly got some good news this week, as the Eagles activated Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz, who has missed the past five games with an ankle injury. Ertz has caught 431 passes the last five seasons, an average of 86 per. He joins fellow TEs Rodgers (24 catches / 2 TDs) and Goedert (30 catches (3 TDs). He has just one touchdown catch this season after being the team's leading receiver for the past four seasons. RB Sanders has missed some time but he's run for 600 yards on 5.6 YPC with three TDs. The defense has been mediocre, allowing 25.2 PPG (16th) on 338.9 YPG (9th). Rodgers leads an offense scoring 31.7 PPG (1st) and gets plenty of help for WR Adams (74 catches and 11 TDs in nine games), TE Tonyan (37 catches / 7 TDs) and RB Jones, who has 634 yards rushing (4.8 YPC / 6 TDs) plus 33 catches for three TDs. The problem has been a defense allowing 25.7 PPG (19th). The Eagles will have their work cut out for themselves in trying to win at Lambeau but a win could find them back in first place. New York is at 8-3 Seattle (10 1/2-point dogs) and Washington is at 11-0 Pittsburgh (7-point underdogs). I will NOT be surprised to see Wentz have a good game and getting this many points has me taking the Eagles. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-06-20 | Rams -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC West) is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET. Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11. Seattle is currently 8-3 but the Rams (7-4) and the Cards (6-5) have fallen off the pace, as they square off in a critical game at Glendale, Az on Sunday. The Rams fell out of a first-place tie with the Seahawks on Sunday after a last-second 23-20 home defeat to the San Francisco 49ers, while the Cardinals fell two games off the pace after they lost 20-17 at the New England Patriots, also on a last-second FG. Catching Seattle will be tough (Seahawks have a very easy schedule ahead) but the loser of this game will really hurt its wild card chances. Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for around 4,400 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 16-10 (QB rating of 92.7). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.6 YPG (ranks 9th) this season. Henderson (510 yards on 4.3 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (371 yards on 4.3 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. WRs Kupp (66 catches) and Woods (61) plus the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 56 catches and four TDs. Led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks fourth in scoring defense (19.5 PPG) and second in total defense (296.7 YPG). Kyler Murray has thrown for 2,814 yards with 19 TDs and nine INTs. He's also run for 650 yards (6.7 YPC) with 10 TDs. RB Kenyan Drake is turning into a solid player, rushing for 719 yards (4.3 YPC) and seven TDs. Future HOF Fitzgerald may have 43 catches but he's averaging only 7.8 YPC without a TD. Hopkins is now the team's "go-to" WR with 77 catches, with Kirk catching 34 passes with six TDs. However, here's the rub. The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and are a successful Hail Mary pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins away from being on a four-game losing streak. Opponents have started to contain Murray's passing ability with blitzes and have stifled his running ability by focusing on him rather than the backs on handoff zone-reads. The Rams defense is surely capable of doing the same. Speaking of defense, when the Cards beat the 49ers back on Oct 25, they entered that game with their defense allowing just 18.7 PPG. However, including that 34-31 win in OT, the Arizona defense has allowed 29.2 PPG over its last five games. Jared Goff lost a fumble in Sunday's defeat to the 49ers and threw TWO interceptions, one which was returned for a TD. After the game, head coach Sean McVay said his quarterback has to take better care of the football. As for Goff, he responded, "I'm a big boy," he said. "I can handle it." Goff shouldn't lack for confidence, as this series has clearly been one-sided over the last three years with the Rams going a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS. Why not a 'Lucky 7' in a row? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-06-20 | Xavier +1.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 77-69 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Xavier at 3:00 ET. The Xavier Musketeers will visit Cincinnati's Fifth Third Arena to take on the Bearcats in the 88th meeting of what's known as the "Crosstown Shootout," the tow schools are just THREE miles apart and the rivalry features as much animosity as ANY in college hoops (Google the 2011 game!). Travis Steele was hired by Sean Miller at Xavier for the 2008-09 season and retained by Chris Mack after Miller accepted the Arizona head coaching position. Steele was promoted to head coach on March 31, 2018 when Mack left for Louisville. He has been a part of a program that has been to eight NCAA tournaments, including an Elite Eight run in 2017, as well as being part of two Atlantic 10 regular season titles, and one Big East regular season title. John Brannen led Northern Kentucky to a 72-30 record in his final three season, leading the Norse to the "Big Dance" in two of those three years. He was hired at Cincy on April 14, 2019 when Mick Cronin left for UCLA. The Bearcats went 20-10 in last year's pandemic-shortened season. Xavier's leading scorer Marshall (16.8) is gone, as is big man Jones (14.0 & 11.1) but Steele has plenty of talent on this season's squad. The Musketeers have been one of the busiest teams in the country so far, fitting their first five games into eight days and have gone 5-0!. The 6-9 Freemantle (17.4 & 8.4) is off to a strong start and is joined up front by 6-11 graduate transfer Johnson (11.8 & 4.4) plus 6-9 returning senior Carter (8.2 & 10.6) Senior guard Scruggs checks in with 12.4 PPG and 7.4 APG, while sophomore guard Tandy is averaging 14.8 PPG. Xavier averaged just 70.7 PPG last season but is scoring 81.2 PPG through five games, plus after shooting only 43.6% from the floor last year, the Musketeers are making 49.7% (44th) this season. Cincy is missing guards Jarron Cumberland (15.5) and Jaevin Cumberland (8.8) plus forward Tre Scott (11.4 & 10.5). It's hard to judge Cincy's team this season as unlike the busy Musketeers, the Bearcats were one of the last teams in Division I to start their season. They did so Wednesday night at home with a 67-55 defeat of Lipscomb. Mika Adams-Woods tallied a career-high 16 points (he averaged just 5.0 PPG last season in 21 minutes) and the 7-1 Chris Vogt added 12 & 8. The 6-10 Ivanauskas is a Colgate transfer and chipped in 11 & 6, plus Michigan transfer DeJulius had 8-6-4 while playing the point. Having a FIVE games to one advantage this early is a HUGE advantage for Xavier plus the record book shows the Musketeers have won FIVE of the last seven and NINE of the last 13 meetings. Xavier gets the win and let's hope for NO fights! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-06-20 | Saints v. Falcons +3 | 21-16 | Loss | -115 | 72 h 0 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET. The New Orleans Saints opened the 2020 season with a 34-23 home win over Tom Brady and the Bucs but then lost in Las Vegas to the Raiders and at home to the Packers to fall to 1-2. However, the Saints have won EIGHT in a row since, including the last two with Taysom Hill filling at QB for the injured Drew Brees. The Saints now own a 2 1/2-game lead over Tampa Bay atop the NFC South and a one-game lead over Green Bay atop the NFC. The Falcons opened the season 0-5, which led to the firing of head coach Dan Quinn. Raheem Morris has been named interim head coach and the Falcons have gone 4-2, after routing the Raiders 43-3 last Sunday. | |||||||
12-06-20 | Colts -3 v. Texans | Top | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET. The Indianapolis Colts won a huge game 34-17 in Tennessee against the Titans back in Week 10 and followed in Week 11 with a 34-31 OT win at home over the Packers (trailed 28-14 at the half) but 'ran out of gas' last Sunday at home, when the Titans (behind Henry's 178 rushing yards and three TDs) crushed the Colt 45-26. The 7-4 Colts now trail the 8-3 Titans in the AFC South as they visit Houston to take on the Texans. The Texans entered the season having won FOUR of the previous five AFC titles but not much has gone right for Houston this season. The Texans crushed the sad-sack Lions 41-25 on Thanksgiving but Houston is just 4-7 on the season and the playoffs are hardly a serious likelihood. The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA and he's been solid. Rivers took over as the Chargers' starting QB in 2006 and over the next 14 seasons, started EVERY game, topping 3,000 passing yards in every one, including passing for over 4,000 yards 11 times (he's topped 4,000 in his last SEVEN seasons). He's on pace for another 4,000-yard season in 2020, as through 11 games he's got 2,978 yards. His completion rate of 67.3% is slightly above his career mark (64.8) and his QB rating of 93.9 is just below his career mark (95.0). Rookie RB Taylor (518 rushing yards / 3.8 YPC) has been a disappointment but fellow RB Hines leads the team with 44 catches. WRs Hilton (33 catches) and Pascal (32) are hardly special but the Indy defense, despite some recent issues, has been strong. The Colts are allowing 23.0 PPG (9th) and 311.8 YPG (5th). Houston signed QB Deshaun Watson to a huge contract before the season and it's hard to blame the team's poor season on him. He's completing 68.9% for 3,2101 yards with 24 TDs and just five INTs. He enters this game without an interception in SIX straight games but the Texans are just 3-3 in those contests. No one really expected that Houston could play its way into the playoff picture but with WR Will Fuller V and cornerback Bradley Roby earning season-ending suspensions based on violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs, the Texan's slim hopes have 'left town!' Fuller was having the most productive season of his five-year career with 53 receptions, 879 yards and eight touchdowns. Replacing him will be all but impossible on the heels of the Texans losing WR Randall Cobb (38 catches / 3 TDs) to injury. The team's prospects are not helped by a defense allowing 27.0 PPG (23rd) on 409.5 YPG (30th). These teams will meet again in Week 15 but I'm taking the Colts here, as they've covered SIX of their last seven matchups with the Texans, who have very little left to play for in 2020. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-05-20 | Wyoming v. New Mexico OVER 51.5 | 16-17 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on Wyoming/New Mexico Over at 1):30 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 8:00 ET Saturday morning. | |||||||
12-05-20 | Fresno State v. Nevada -6.5 | 26-37 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on Nevada at 10:30 ET. Jeff Tedford did a great job at Fresno St, taking over a program that had gone 1-11 in 2016 by going 10-4 and 12-2 in his first two seasons. However, the Bulldogs fell to 4-8 last season and Tedford resigned for health concerns. Getting his first head coaching job at the FBS level was Kalen DeBoer, who had a truly amazing run at NAIA school Sioux Falls. He left with a 67-3 five-year run of 67-3,, including going 56-1 over his last four years while winning THREE of four NAIA national championships. The Bulldogs opened the 2020 season by getting upset 34-19 at home by Hawaii but have since won THREE in a row SU and ATS. The offense is averaging 33.0 PPG (39th) on 467.3 YPG (23rd), and while the defense allows 417.3 YPG (72nd), it's holding opponents to 23.5 PPG (32nd) Jay Norvell enters his fourth season in Reno and after going 3-9 in his first season, he's led the Wolf Pack to back-to-back winnings season and two bowl bids. Nevada opened the 2020 season 5-0 (4-1 ATS) but then lost 24-21 at Hawaii (ask Fresno about the Rainbow Warriors). Nevada's offense averages 30.3 PPG (58th) on 446.5 YPG (32nd) and its defense has been strong all season, allowing 21.2 PPG (21st) on 321.5 YPG (15th). Fresno St has not played since Nov 14 (last two games have been canceled) and will catch an 'angry' Wolf Pack team which just had its 5-0 season spoiled last Saturday in 'paradise!' The difference in this game will be the play of Nevada QB Carson Strong (71.3% with 16 TDs and just two INTs) and WR Doubs, who averages 21.3 YPC with nine TD grabs in just six games. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-05-20 | UNLV v. Kansas State -2 | Top | 68-58 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Kansas St at 8:00 ET. UNLV has opened 0-4 (lost three games in three days at the Maui Invitational, which was held in Asheville, NC) and will travel to Manhattan, Ks to take on 1-2 Kansas State. UNLV returns just three players who played significant minutes from last season's 17-15 team and Bruce Weber's Wildcats lost their top-three scorers from a team that went just 11-21 last season, after winning 25 games in the previous two campaigns. UNLV head coach T.J. Otzelberger is in his second season in Las Vegas has watched his team lose 91-78 to Montana State at home and then lose three straight in Asheville. That said, he claims to be "encouraged" heading into this contest. I'm NOT sure why? Junior guard Hamilton (21.5-5.8-3.5) is a quality player who is joined in the backcourt by Grill (14.0 & 4.) and graduate transfer Jenkins (10.3). | |||||||
12-05-20 | Colorado State v. San Diego State -7 | Top | 17-29 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show |
My 9* play is on San Diego St at 7:00 ET. Colorado St went to FIVE consecutive bowl games from 2013 through 2017 but back-to-back 39 and 4-8 seasons followed in 2018 and 2019. Calls for head coach Mike Bobo's firing gained steam throughout last season. Just over 12,000 people attended the final home game against Boise State, one of the Rams' worst home crowds since before Sonny Lubick's arrival with Bobo and CSU mutually agreeing to part ways just days later. Steve Addazio got the job, after being fired at BC. He did lead BC to SIX bowl appearances in his seven-year tenure but his teams never won more than seven games in a season and his career mark at the school ended at 44-44. The Rams have seen their last two games canceled and have played just THREE games to-date. Colorado St won 34-24 at home vs Wyoming but in two road games, has lost 38-17 at Fresno St and 52-21 at Boise St. Brady Hoke is back coaching the Aztecs after Rocky Long retired after the 2019 season. He took over a program that had won 10-plus games in FOUR of the previous five years and has been to 10 consecutive bowl games! The Aztecs opened 3-1 but then lost 26-21 at Nevada on Nov 21. The team's game with Fresno St on Nov 27 was canceled early in the week and SDSU hastily arranged a game in Boulder against Colorado. The Buffs are a good team and the Aztecs lost 20-10. The defense was great last season, allowing 12.7 PPG on only 288.0 YPG and it hasn't been too far off those numbers in 2020 (16.2 PPG ranks 9th and 270.3 YPG ranks 3rd). This marks SDSU's final home game of the season, as the Aztecs finish next Saturday at BYU (good luck in that one!). Lay the points here with the Aztecs. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-05-20 | Florida Atlantic v. Georgia Southern -2 | Top | 3-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Georgia Southern at 6:00 ET. | |||||||
12-05-20 | BYU v. Coastal Carolina +10.5 | Top | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Coastal Carolina at 5:30 ET. | |||||||
12-05-20 | Georgia Tech v. NC State -6.5 | Top | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 47 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on NC State at 4:00 ET. 7-3 North Carolina State (6-3 ACC) plays its final game of the season on Saturday against 3-5 Georgia Tech (3-4 ACC). NC State is still smarting from last year's 28-26 defeat to the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta, when an injury-depleted Wolfpack team fell behind 21-3 and saw their comeback fall short when a final two-point conversion failed. Surprisingly, NC State has not beaten Ga Tech in Raleigh since 2000! Georgia Tech took the field last Saturday having not played since Oct 31 and ended a three-game losing streak with a 56-33 win over Duke. QB Sims set career highs for rushing yard (108) and TD passes (three) becoming the first freshman in the country to run for at least 100 yards and pass for at least three TDs in a game this season. That outstanding effort still leaves Sims with a modest 58.8% completion rate, just 1,492 passing yards and with as many INTs (11) as TD passes (11) on the season. He's added 385 rushing yards with four TDs. The Yellow Jackets average 193.6 YPG on the ground (39th) but the team's leading rusher (Gibbs) has just 460 yards. He also leads the team with 24 catches (12.6 YPC / 3 TDs). WR Camp has 22 catches for 14.5 YPC with three TDs and fellow wide-out Carter has 17 catches (14.4 YPC / 3 TDs). The Ga Tech defense is allowing 38.9 PPG which remains an issue. Last year's starting QB Leary has been replaced by Bailey Hochman, who has thrown for 1,511 yards and 12 touchdowns in eight games. He passed for a career-high 313 yards and four TDs in the Wolfpack's most recent win, 36-29 at Syracuse. NC State has not run the ball as well as Ga Tech but does have two solid RBs in Knight (698 yards / 5.6 YPC / 8 TDs) and Person (576 yards / 4.6 YPC / 3 TDs). WRs Emezie and Thomas each have 36 catches, combining for 11 TDs. TE Angeline has 25 catches for 15.5 YPC with six TD catches. Like Ga Tech, the NC State defense is a negative, allowing 31.4 PPG. NC State sits at 7-3, with ALL of its losses coming against ranked opponents. NC State has played FIVE ranked opponents in all, winning two of those games. NC State enters on a three-game winning streak with Hockman settling in at QB with seven TDs and three INTs during the streak. As for Ga Tech, let's note that all five of the team's losses have come by 17 or more points and here's a stat head coach Geoff Collins doesn't want you to hear. He was just 3-9 in his first season (2019) and has followed by going 3-5 in 2020. That's just SIX wins and following his first five wins (his sixth was last week vs Duke), Ga Tech has not just lost all FIVE but has also gone 0-5 ATS with an average margin of defeat of 30.4 PPG. Good enough for me! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-05-20 | Boston College v. Virginia -4 | Top | 32-43 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Revenge Game of the Year is on Virginia at 3:30 ET. Steve Addazio coached Boston College to SIX bowl appearances in his seven seasons but never won more than SEVEN games in any season. On December 1, 2019 following the conclusion of a 6-6 regular season, Boston College fired him (career record at BC was 44-44). Jeff Hafley was hired to be the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State and quickly established himself as one of the best recruiters in the country and was hired to be the head coach at Boston College after the firing of Addazio. Boston College is 6-4 (5-4 in the ACC) in Hafley's first season and The Eagles will play their final regular season game of the year Saturday at Virginia. Bronco Mendenhall spent 11 years as BYU head coach, leading the Cougars to 11 bowls during his tenure. He took the Virginia job in 2016 and flopped,' going 2-10 his first season. However, he righted the ship quickly, by following with THREE straight bowl berths. The 2019 season was special, as he led the Cavs to their first victory over Virginia Tech after fifteen consecutive losses in their rivalry, capping a 9–3 regular season and that secured the program's first Coastal Division title and a berth in the 2019 ACC Championship Game and 2019 Orange Bowl. It was the program's first Orange Bowl bid since turning down an invite 68 years earlier (for the 1952 Orange Bowl) and only the third New Year's Six appearance of any Coastal Division member. It was also the Cavaliers' most prestigious bowl appearance since George Welsh led the 1990 team to the Sugar Bowl. Boston College is off a 34-27 victory at home over Louisville last Saturday, despite starting QB Phil Jurkovec (left knee) and No. 1 RB David Bailey (upper body) to injuries. Backup QB Dennis Grosel came on and threw two fourth-quarter TDs in the win. Jurkovec is a Notre Dame transfer and has completed 61 percent of his passes for 2,558 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs. As for Grosel, who started seven games in 2019, he said "It's kind of like riding a bike. I did it last year, so I hopped right on and held on for the ride." Bailey leads BC's running game with a modest 503 yards and the Eagles only average 112.6 YPG on the ground (113th), averaging a pathetic 3.3 YPC. WR Flowers has 48 catches with seven TDs and TE Long 49 catches with four TDs. The BC defense allows 26.9 PPG, just under what the team's offense scores (27.4. Armstrong has taken over at QB for Virginia and has thrown 15 TDs and eight INTs, while also leading the team in rushing with 399 yards (4 TDs). The Cavs' running game is not bad, averaging 163.8 YPG (50 YPG more than BC) plus RB Kemp is the team's top receiver (52 catches). TE Poljan has 30 catches and five TDs plus WR Davis, who has played in just five games, averages 26.7 YPC on his 14 receptions with five TDs. The Cavaliers are 0-6 all-time against the Eagles heading into Saturday's home finale in Charlottesville, including an 0-2 record at home and an 0-4 mark since Boston College joined the Atlantic Coast Conference in 2005. So why should UVa win here? Boston College has alternated wins and losses over its last nine games and is coming off a win last Saturday (see above). The status QB Jurkovec and RB Bailey is not clear but I'm 'ON' Virginia, regardless. Armstrong has led UVa to three straight wins, throwing eight TD passes and just two INTs (also added three rushing TDs plus 178 yards), as the Cavs have averaged 43.3 PPG. Virginia is 16-2 SU at Scott Stadium dating back to the start of the 2018 season. Revenge works well in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-04-20 | Oregon -3 v. Seton Hall | Top | 83-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Oregon at 9:00 ET. No. 21 Oregon (opened No. 20 in the preseason poll) has played just once so far, an 83-75 loss to Missouri on Wednesday. The Ducks will look to rebound Friday night in Omaha against Seton Hall, which has opened 1-2. Tonight's contest is a rematch of Oregon's 71-69 win last November in the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas. Both schools lost their best player from last season, Payton Pritchard (20.5-4.3-5.5) of Oregon and Myles Powell (21.0 & 4.3) of Seton Hall. Dana Altman spent 16 seasons at Creighton and took the school to seven NCAA tourneys in his last 12 years at the school. He came to Oregon for the 2010-11 season and won the CBI championship in his first season. He begins his 11th season in Eugene having won 20-plus games in each of his first 10, averaging 25.9 wins per year. Oregon has played in SIX of the last eight NCAA tourneys and it would have been seven if last season's year was not cut short (Ducks were 24-7). Seton Hall believed it could have made a run to the Final Four behind All-American guard Myles Powell last season, before COVID-19 shut things down. The Pirates were 21-9 and ranked 15th in the country after finishing tied for first in the Big East with a 13-5 record. Head coach Kevin Willard began his stint at Seton Hall in 2010-11 and struggled in his first five but he entered this season off FIVE straight 20-win or more seasons, each ending in an NCAA berth, not including last year in which the Pirates would have received a bid. Along with Pritchard, Altman lost SG Mathis (8.5) and 6-7 SF Juiston (7.9 & 6.3). However, to the rescue come two transfers. The 6-6 Eugene Omoruyi, who sat out last year as a transfer from Rutgers and the 6-6 Eric Williams who transferred from Duquesne. Omoruyi wasted no time making his presence felt, scoring 31 points (the most ever scored by a Duck in his debut for the school) and grabbing 11 rebounds. Williams added 13 & 9 plus returning 6-6 senior Duarte had 22-4-3. Oregon's problem was the Ducks got a total of just FOUR points off the bench. Willard will miss Powell but likes his team. Seton Hall PG Shavar Reynolds averaged just 4.2 PPG playing limited minutes last season behind Powell but Willard is counting on Reynolds to "run the show," First-team All-Big East selection Sandro Mamukelashvili is back as are wings Jared Rhoden and Myles Cale, plus 7-foot-2 center Ike Obiagu. Mamukelashvili has averaged 21.7 & 9.0 and Rhoden joins him in double digits at 15.7 & 7.3. Reynolds (7.0 & 4.7 APG) is off to a decent start, with Cale averaging 9.7 & 3.7. Molson 7.0 & 4.3 and Obiagu 3.7 & 6.3. Seton Hall lost by just ONE at Louisville in its season opener, then won 86-64 over Iona but fell 76-63 to Rhode Island. I'm a HUGE fan of Altman and I expect the Ducks to bounce back from that unexpected loss to Missouri with Omoruyi leading the way. With ANY support off the bench, Oregon should win comfortably. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-04-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State -2 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Appalachian St at 7:00 ET. No. 20 ULL (8-1 / 6-1 SBC) visits Appalachian St (7-2, 5-1) on Friday night. Louisiana has already secured a spot in the conference championship game as the SBC-East champs, while Appalachian St's loss to Coastal Carolina (9-0 / 7-0) means it will not have a chance to defend its back-to-back SBC title game wins over ULL in 2018 and 2019. Billy Napier accepted the head coaching job of the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns back on Dec 15, 2017, giving him his first job as a head coach of a college football team. His first season resulted with the Rajin' Cajuns winning the SBC-West and making a Cure Bowl appearance (lost to Tulane to finish 7-7). ULL won the West again last season and gave Appalachian St all it wanted in the SBC championship game (lost 45-38),before capping its season with a 27-17 bowl win over Miami-Ohio to finish 11-3. ULL opened the 2020 season by winning 31-14 at Iowa St as a two-TD underdog. That victory is arguably the biggest win in school history, as ULL beat a top-25 opponent on the road for the first time, having gone 0-26 against ranked foes away from home. ULL's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. ULL is fresh off last Saturday's 70-20 pounding of UL-Monroe, improving to 5-0 in road games. Appalachian State will be forever-linked to its upset of Michigan back in 2007. There was no official pointspread on the game but App St's 34-32 win has been called the greatest upset in college football history. Appalachian State moved up to the FBS level in 2014 and has made quite an impression. Beginning in 2015, the Mountaineers have gone 54-12 (.818) and been to five straight bowls, winning all five. Scott Satterfield led App St through 2018 but then left for Louisville. Eliah Drinkwitz led the Mountaineers to a 12-1 record in 2019 and a second straight SBC championship but bolted to Missouri before the school's 31-17 win over UAB in the New Orleans Bowl. Shawn Clark coached App St in the bowl win and became the school's THIRD head coach in three seasons. ULL has outstanding balance on offense, passing for 227.0 YPG and rushing for 217.3. QB Levi Lewis has thrown for 2,027 yards with 16 TDs and seven INTs, even though no player has more than 23 receptions. The running game is shared by Mitchell (656 yards / 6.0 YPC / 7 TDs) and Ragas (617 yards / 5.9 YPC / 7 TDs). The defense is solid, allowing 21.9 PPG (23rd) on 354.2 YPG (32nd). QB Zach Thomas is completing 66.7% for App St, throwing for 1,775 yards with 17 TDs and eight INTs, down from last year's numbers (2,718 yards with 28 TDs and six INTs). The Mountaineers are averaging 256.6 YPG on the ground (7th) on 5.6 YPC. Five players have more than 250 yards, led by Peoples (639 yards / 6.0 YPC / 6 TDs) and Harrington (595 yards / 5.6 YPC / 7 TDs). Like ULL, the team's receiving corps is very mediocre. However, the defense is VERY good, allowing just 18.0 PPG (15th) on 320.0 YPG (13th). Here's the rub. ULL has had the better season but has already clinched a spot in the SBC championship game and will get a shot at Coastal Carolina, which is currently unbeaten. What's more, the Ragin' Cajuns are trying to avoid the distraction of Billy Napier's name surfacing as a potential candidate for higher-profile head coaching jobs. It's also impossible to ignore that as SBC foes, Appalachian St is 8-0 SU vs ULL. This marks Appalachian State's final home game of the season (has avoided COVID postponements) and would surely love to continue its domination of ULL. How about this? With ULL coming in as the AP's 20th-ranked team (No. 25 in the CFP), this marks the first time in school history that a top-25 team will come to Boone, North Carolina's Kidd Brewer Stadium. The Mountaineers are the small favorite and win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-03-20 | Connecticut v. USC +1.5 | Top | 61-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on USC at 7:00 ET. UConn moved to the AAC for the 2013-14 season and made an improbable run to the Final Four and won a national championship. However, it has spent the last six seasons going just 110-90, with just two seasons of 20-plus wins and one NCAA tourney appearance. The Huskies have fallen out of the national 'picture' but hope a return to the Big East this season, along with the hiring of Dan Hurley as its head coach, will change that. Hurley spent six seasons at Rhode Island, winning 25 and 26 games in his final two years, ending with NCAA bids. However, he went 14 -19 and 16-17 in his first two seasons with UConn, before going 19-12 in last season's pandemic-shortened one. Andy Enfield led Florida Gulf Coast to a 26-11 season in his second at the school, making a Sweet 16 appearance. That gave him the chance to "move on up" to USC but his first two seasons were HUGE disappointments (11-21 and 12-20). However, the Trojans have won 21-plus games in FOUR of the last five seasons, including a 22-9 mark last season before the shut down. The Huskies have opened 2-0 and the Trojans 3-0 ahead of tonight's in the Mohegan Sun "Bubbleville." Vital (16.4 & 6.3) was UConn's best player but he graduated and Gilbert (8.5 & 3.5 APG) transferred to Wichita St. However, hopes are high for Connecticut this year, as the Huskies return to their natural habitat in the Big East after seven years in the American Athletic Conference. The 6-5 Bouknight is averaging 19.0 & 6.5 and is surrounded by fellow guards Cole (13.5 & 3.5 APG), Gaffney (10.5) and Martin, a Rhode Island transfer who made a nice impression in his Huskies debut against Hartford with six points and 10 rebounds in 25 minutes. Up front, it's three 6-9 players, Whaley (11.0 & 8.5), freshman Sanogo (8.0 & 4.5) and a now healthy Polley (played just 15 games LY), who has contributed 7.0 & 4.5. USC saw its top-five scorers leave after the 2020 season. Onyeka Okongwu left for the NBA, Elijah Weaver transferred to University of Dayton plus seniors Jonah Mathews, Nick Rakocevic, and Daniel Utomi all graduated. However, Enfield recruited a "super frosh" in 7-0 freshman Evan Mobley plus brought in SIX transfers. Evan Mobley has wasted little time in showing his value, averaging 16.3 & 9.0. He joins his brother Isaiah (a 6-10 sophomore), who has added 10.3 & 11.3. Peterson is a 6-8 swingman from Rice and leads a perimeter group with 14.7 & 4.7. Fellow guards are Eaddy (Santa Clara) and White, a grad transfer from Utah Valley St. Eaddy is averaging 12.7 PPG and White 8.3. The 6-9 Goodwin, a grad transfer from Wofford adds 6.7 & 5.3. UConn has yet to play a quality opponent (Central Connecticut State and Hartford) and hardly looked "ready for primetime" in blowing a 19-point lead and sending Hartford to the line 27 times. Meanwhile, USC held a normally potent BYU attack to 27.5 percent from the floor in a 79-53 rout. Note that Cougars are off to a 4-1 start, averaging 87.5 PPG in those four wins. At "pick-em," USC is a STRONG play! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-02-20 | Illinois v. Baylor -5 | Top | 69-82 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Baylor at 10:00 ET. No. 5 Illinois and No. 2 Baylor meet in the nightcap of the Jimmy V Classic at Indianapolis giving college basketball fans the first top-5 matchup of the young season. Baylor opened No. 2 (to Gonzaga) in the AP's preseason poll, while Illinois began at No. 8 Illinois. head coach Brad Underwood made a big 'splash' at S.F. Austin and then made a one year 'pit stop' at Oklahoma St, before landing in Champaign-Urbana. The Fighting Illini were just 14-18 and 12-21 in his first two seasons but had a breakout year in going 21-10 before last season was shut down. As for Baylor's Scott Drew, he took over a devastated Baylor program in the 2003-4 season and since 2007-08, has turned the Bears into one of the better programs in the country. Baylor won the NIT in 2013 and has made eight NCAA tourney appearances (26-4 last season would have made nine). The Illini routed North Carolina A&T and Chicago State by a combined 121 points but nearly lost to Ohio U last Friday. However, junior guard Ayo Dosunmu sank the tying and go-ahead free throws with two seconds left to save Illinois, 77-75. Dosunmu is averaging 25.7-7.7-6.7 and is joined in the backcourt by freshman Miller (18.0). 7-0 center Cockburn had a terrific freshman season (13.3 & 8.1) and checks in at 15.0 & 11.7 through three games. Guard Feliz (11.0 & 5.0) and SF Griffin (8.9 & 4.5) are gone but a trio of guards (Curbelo, Frazier and Williams) are combining for 26-plus PPG! Baylor lost 6-9 center Gillespie (9.6 & 9.0) but Tchatchoua is a 6-8 transfer from UNLV and he's averaged 9.0 & 8.0. The 6-5 Vital plays like a power forward, averaging 6.5 & 8.5 and is considered one of the best defensive players in the nation. The strength of Baylor's team is centered around its four guards, all scoring in double digits. Butler's (18.5-3.0-4.5) the best of the group but don't look past Teague (18.0 & 6.5), Flagler (14.5-3.0-4.0) or Mitchell (12.0-4.0-6.5) Illinois entered the top-5 for the first time since losing to North Carolina in the 2005 NCAA championship game but the team's stay may not last long. Baylor is expected to regain the services of head coach Scott Drew, who missed Baylor's impressive wins over Louisiana and Washington over the weekend in Las Vegas while completing his quarantine after contracting COVID-19. He used Zoom to participate in the Bears' scout sessions and pregame locker room discussions, but mostly volunteered to stand aside and let associate head coach Jerome Tang run the show. Baylor wins by double digits! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-02-20 | St. John's +1.5 v. BYU | 68-74 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on St John's at 5:00 ET. St. John's is 3-0 and takes on 3-1 BYU in a "Bubbleville" game at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Ct (part of the Legends Classic). The Red Storm eked out a 97-93 win over Boston College on Monday night, while BYU suffered its first loss last night, when the Cougars fell to USC, 79-53, in the Legends Classic opener. For St John's, its win over BC was its second nail-biter in three games. The Red Storm needed a go-ahead three-pointer from Vince Cole with nine seconds left to edge Saint Peter's 76-75 in their season opener on Nov 25 and Monday, led by as many as 20 and almost squandered a 13-point lead in the final 2:39. BYU hosted its first three games against weak opponents over Thanksgiving weekend and won by a combined 96 points. However, reality set in last night vs USC, when the Trojans ended the first half on a 10-0 run to take a 31-20 lead and expanded the lead to as many as 30 points in the second half, before winning 79-53! St John's is coached by Mike Anderson, who is in his second season in Queens. He's had success wherever he's been, going 89-41 in four years at UAB, 111-57 in five years at Missouri and 169-102 in eight years at Arkansas. Anderson took over a recently struggling St John's program last season and went 17-15, giving him his 18th consecutive winning season as a head coach (zero losing seasons). Anderson lost LJ Figueroa (14.5 & 4.5) to Oregon but THREE newcomers have already made HUGE contributions in the team's 2-0 start. Vince Cole is a 6-5 two-time junior-college All-American and is averaging 16.0 PPG. Freshman guard Posh Alexander is off to a strong start with a line of 12.0-4.7-3.7 and 6-10 JC transfer Isaih Moore (but with a 7-6 wingspan) has chipped in 9.3 PPG and 7.3 RPG. There's all sorts of depth in the backcourt with Williams (12.0-3.3-3.7) and freshman Addae-Wusu (8.3). The 6-6 Earlington has opened adding 8.0 & 4.7 plus Anderson got 6-8 wing Julian Champagnie (9.9 & 6.5 last season) back vs BC (he missed the first two) and he not only scored 29 points with 10 rebounds but blocked a potential game-tying three-pointer with 17 seconds left. Mark Pope had an excellent first season at BYU (came from Utah Valley St), going 24-8. However, gone are PF Childs (22.2 & 9.0) plus guards Toolson (15.2-4.8-3.9) and Haws (14.0 & 5.8 APG). Guard Barcello (9.3 PPG last season) is leading the way in averaging 18.0-5.8-3.3) and the 7-3 Haarms (Purdue graduate transfer) has chipped in 10.5 & 3.5 the last two games. BYU has a ton of depth, as EIGHT more players are averaging between 16 and 26 MPG. Guard Averette leads in scoring (9.8) in that group, while 6-9 Lohner (6.3) and the 6-11 Harvard (5.8) are the best rebounders. These schools last met almost 30 year ago, when St John's beat BYU 67-62, in Provo back on Dec 8 1990. 30 years later, St John's wins again. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-02-20 | Texas v. North Carolina +1 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 17 m | Show |
My 9* play is on North Carolina at 4:00 ET. No. 14 North Carolina and No. 17 Texas will meet late Wednesday afternoon (4:00 ET tip) in the championship game of the Maui Invitational. However, in the "Year of COVID," the tournament has been relocated to snowy Asheville, a western North Carolina mountain city instead of its normal location in 'paradise' (or Hawaii, if you will). Shaka Smart was a 'genius' at VCU, winning the CBI championship in his first season and then taking the Rams to the Final Four in his second season. He took the Texas job after six seasons at VCU where he was 163-56, an average of 27.2 wins per season. However, in his first five seasons in Austin, he's had one 'nightmare' season (11-22 in his second year) and four more in which the Longhorns have won a total of just 79 games (just under 20 per) with just two NCAA appearances (lost first game each time). North Carolina's legendary head coach Roy Williams is coming off a 14-19 season in which North Carolina players lost 99 games to injury. However, the Tar Heels opened No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll (Texas opened at No. 19). Texas returned all FIVE starters plus added the 6-9 Brown, an impressive freshman. The Longhorns have opened 3-0, with their trio of veteran guards leading the way. Ramey is averaging 15.7-3.3-3.7, Coleman 14.3 & 5.7 APG and Andrew Jones 12.5 PPG. Up front, the 6-11 Kai Jones adds 10.7 & 5.0, the 6-10 Sims 8.0 & 7.7 and SF Cunningham 4.7 & 6.7. Freshman Brown is chipping in 8.0 & 7.3. Last year's super frosh Anthony lost time to injury last season (played 22 games) but averaged 18.5-5.7-4.0 and as expected was a "One and Done!" Also gone is senior guard Robinson and his 11.8 PPG. Freshman guard Caleb Lowe (13.0) leads the team in scoring early on, paired with sophomore Davis (12.7 & 4.7). A pair of 6-10 big men are back, with Bacot averaging 11.3 & 6.3 (9.6 & 8.3 LY) and Brooks 10.0 & 9.0 (16.8 & 8.5 LY) plus 6-8 swingman Black averages 6.3 & 6.3. Texas has more depth and is looking for its first Maui Invitational title in five all-time appearances in the event. Meanwhile, North Carolina has trailed in the second half in two of its three games this season. "I feel like we're battle-tested going through the things we went through last year," Leaky Black said. "We feel like we've got some guys willing to learn and to fight when the going gets tough" Consider this. North Carolina is going for its FIFTH Maui Invitational title with its seventh appearance in the tournament final. What's more, it sure DOESN'T hurt that instead of playing in Maui, the Tar Heels are playing in North Carolina, although it's Asheville, not Chapel Hill. Tar Heels get that FIFTH title with a win here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-01-20 | Michigan State v. Duke -3.5 | Top | 75-69 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Top-10 Showdown is on Duke at 7:30 ET. The Champions Classic has been played as a doubleheader at a neutral site in the past. However, COVID-19 has changed all that, as the game between No. 8 Michigan State and No. 6 Duke game was switched to Duke's campus, with the Blue Devils agreeing to visit Michigan State next year, while No. 7 Kansas and No. 20 Kentucky will meet in Indianapolis. Michigan State comes in 2-0, as the Spartans followed an 83-67 opening victory against Eastern Michigan by defeating Notre Dame 80-70 on Saturday night. Duke had its first game called off because of Gardner-Webb's coronavirus situation and enters this contest off an unimpressive 81-71 victory Saturday against visiting Coppin State. Michigan St lost its two best players from last season's team to the NBA Draft, as PG Winston (18.6 & 5.9 APG) was taken by the Wizards and the 6-8 Tillman (13.7 & 10.3) by the Grizzlies. 6-9 junior forward Joey Hauser, a transfer from Marquette, secured his first career double-double with 10 points and 16 rebounds against Notre Dame and is averaging 12.5 & 12.5. Joining him in the frontcourt are two returning players, the 6-7 Brown and the 6-6 Henry. Brown has averaged 10.5 PPG, while Henry has chipped in 10.0 & 6.0. Sophomore PG Watts (7.5 & 4.5 APG) steps in for Winston plus veteran guards Loyer (11.5) and Langford (9.0) join him on the perimeter. Langford is FINALLY healthy and is back on the court this season, having last played in December of 2018. Like Michigan St's Izzo, Duke's Coach K lost his top-two players to the NBA as well. The 6-10 Carey (17.8 & 8.8) will play this season for the Hornets and PG Jones (16.2-4.7-6.4) was taken by the Spurs. Coach K has seamlessly transitioned into the One-and-Done era and freshman guard Stewart scored 24 points and pulled down nine rebounds in hi debut vs Coppin St, while the 6-9 Johnson scored 19 points and added 19 rebounds in what Krzyzewski called "a heck of a first-time performance." SF Moore (7.4 & 4.2 last season) added 13 & 4 plus the 6-9 Hurt (9.7 & 3.8 last season) chipped in 12 & 7. These two schools are meeting for the FIFTH consecutive season that these teams meet and Duke has won EIGHT of the last nine, with the exception being the 2019 NCAA Tournament's East Region final. Nothing changes here. Lay the modest price! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
12-01-20 | Oklahoma State v. Marquette -3.5 | Top | 70-62 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Marquette at 7:00 ET. Mike Boynton was named the 20th head coach of the Oklahoma State University men's basketball team following the departure of Brad Underwood back in March of 2017. His first team (2017-18 season) went 21-15 and reached the NIT quarterfinals but the Cowboys have gone 12-20 and 18-14 the last two seasons. His "best move" may have been hiring Cannen Cunningham as an assistant coach in 22019, as his younger brother, the 6-8 Cade Cunningham (Naismith HS Player of the Year), subsequently signed with Oklahoma State. The Blue Ribbon Yearbook named Cunningham as its Newcomer of the Year. Cunningham joins 6-5 guard Issac Likekele, who may have been OSU's best player last season (10.9-5.6-4.5), despite missing about a month with mono. Marquette's Coach Wojo knows all about losing a "big-time" player, as Markus Howard led the nation in scoring last season at 27.8 PPG. Also gone is fellow senior Scar Anim, who added 13.1 PPG. However, Wojo also knows about welcoming an impressive freshman to his roster. The 6-11 Dawson Garcia (31.9 & 9.7 last year in high school) earned Big East Conference Freshman of the Week honors by averaging 17.5 points and 6.0 rebounds in Marquette's 2-0 start, shooting 55.6 percent from the floor and 84.6 percent at the foul line. Oklahoma St has also opened 2-0 with Cunningham living up to expectations by averaging 20.5-7.0-3.5. SIX other players are chipping in between 7.0 and 9.5 PPG, led by senior guard Flowers (9.5) and freshman guard Walker (9.5). The 6-5 Likekele owns an impressive line of 8.5-9.9-5.5. I think the Cowboys will be improved but 'hanging over the season' is the postseason ban handed down by the NCAA due to transgressions by former program assistant Lamont Evans unveiled in the 2017 FBI investigation. NO postseason for OSU in 2021. Sure, Marquette will miss Howard but Wojo has a "star in the making" with Garcia plus a really 'deep' team behind him. Guard McEwan (9.5 & 5.) plus frontcourt players like the 6-9 Johnson (5.1 & 5.7) and the 6-6 Cain (5.2 & 4.2) are back. Carton (10.4 as a freshman at Ohio St) is a transfer and eligible right away at the guard position plus 6-7 freshman Lewis is ready right now to contribute. Checking in on that group we find McEwan averaging 13.0 PPG, Johnson 11.0 & 10.5, Cain 11.0 & 6.5), Lewis 10.0 & 6.0, Carton 8.0-4.5-3.0 plus Torrence, who averaged less than two points and two assists last season, producing 6.0-5.0-4.5 to open this season. Oklahoma St has yet to be tested, as the Cowboys have only beaten UT-Arlington (14-8 last season) and Texas Southern (16-160. Winning on Marquette's Fiserv Forum floor is a "horse of a different color." Expect a double-digit win by the Golden Eagles! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-30-20 | Stanford v. Alabama -2 | Top | 82-64 | Loss | -112 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on Alabama at 9:30 ET. Stanford opens its season tonight against 1-0 Alabama in the Maui Invitational. However, in the "Year of COVID-19," it's being played in Asheville, NC (CAN'T make that up!). Stanford's contest vs Utah Valley on Wednesday was canceled due to a positive COVID-19 test, and subsequent contact tracing, within the Wolverines' program. However, expectations are high for the Cardinal, who return FIVE of their top six scorers from last season and boast an impressive freshman class. Head coach Jerod Haase may be feeling some pressure, as he replaced Johnny Dawkins at Stanford, who earned the title "King of the NIT,' leading the Cardinal to NIT titles in 2012 and 2015. However, no school gets much credit these days for an NIT championship. Haase is just 69-61 in his first four years without an NCAA bid and his lone NIT appearance ended in the second round. | |||||||
11-30-20 | St. John's v. Boston College | Top | 97-93 | Win | 100 | 15 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout of the Month is on St John's at 6:00 ET. The St. John's Red Storm of the Big East will take on the ACC's Boston College Eagles in a non-conference, neutral-court game in Uncasville, Conn. The Red Storm are off to a 2-0 start (beat Saint Peter's and LaSalle), while the Eagles are 1-1, losing to No. 3 Villanova 76-67 before rebounding to defeat Rhode Island, 69-64.(2-0).St John's is coached by Mike Anderson, who is in his second season in Queens. He's had success wherever he's been, going 89-41 in four years at UAB, 111-57 in five years at Missouri and 169-102 in eight years at Arkansas. Anderson took over a recently struggling St John's program last season and went 17-15, giving him his 18th consecutive winning season as a head coach (zero losing seasons). Jim Christian had an excellent six-year run at Kent St, winning 20-plus games each year and averaging 22.8 wins per season. He took on the challenge at TCU and failed miserably, going 56-73 in four seasons. He returned to the MAC with Ohio U but 24-10 and 25-12 seasons brought only NIT and CIT postseason appearances. It was then on to BC and in six seasons, he's had just ONE winning campaign, going 75-119 overall. Anderson lost LJ Figueroa (14.5 & 4.5) to Oregon but THREE newcomers have already made HUGE contributions in the team's 2-0 start. Vince Cole is a 6-5 two-time junior-college All-American and was named the MVP of the Lapchick Tournament, as he averaged 20.0 points on 46.2 percent shooting on three-pointers. Freshman guard Posh Alexander averaged 12.0-5.0-3.0 in the two wins and 6-10 JC transfer Isaih Moore (but with a 7-6 wingspan) chipped in 10.5 PPG and 8.0 RPG. There's all sorts of depth in the backcourt with Williams (9.5) and freshman Addae-Wusu (8.0 & 3.5). The 6-6 Earlington has opened adding 9.0 & 4.5 plus Anderson is waiting for 6-8 wing Julian Champagnie (9.9 & 6.5 last season) to return (missed two straight games due to a sprained ankle and PG Rasheem Dunn (5 points / 5 assists in the opener) to recover from a concussion. Speaking of hoping to get a key player back on the court, Christian waits to see how bad the foot injury that forced guard Jay Heath to miss BC's second game is. Heath had 16 points on 7-for-14 shooting s Villanova and was BC's leading scorer last season (13.1 PPG). Guard Thornton (12.7 & 3.4 APG) plus a trio of frontcourt players will also be missed (trio combined to average 27.8 & 13.0). Two key returning players are Wynston Tabbs, a third-year guard who missed half his freshman year and all of last season due to left-knee surgery. However, Tabbs (13.5 & 5.5) produced the first double-double of his career, getting 16 points and a career-high 10 rebounds against Rhode Island (he averaged 13.9 PPG as a freshman). Up front it's the 6-8 Steffon Mitchell, who has made 84 starts and is averaging 9.0 points and 9.5 rebounds this season plus the 6-7 Felder (8.0 & 4.0). BC has played the better competition so far but I really like the group Anderson has at St John's, especially when Champagnie gets healthy. This was a healthy rivalry back in the old days, when both teams were members of the Big East in its glory years. However, the Big East is now a basketball-only conference and BC has moved to the ACC, where competing is VERY difficult (see Christian's record at the school above). St John's wins this one comfortably in an 'old school' rivalry! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-29-20 | Rhode Island v. San Francisco | Top | 84-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
My CBB 10* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month is on Rhode Island at 5:30 ET. San Francisco went 22-12 last season in head coach Todd Golden's first season and the Dons have opened 2-1 playing at the Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Ct. The 1-2 Rhode Island Rams (21-9 last season) will be their opponents, as both teams will be playing a FOURTH since Wednesday (five-day stretch). San Francisco lost its opener 76-68 to UMass-Lowell but then won back-to-back games. The first win came 79-68 over Towson but then came a shocking 61-60 win over No. 4 Virginia as a 15-point underdog. Rhode Island opened its season with losses to No. 18 Arizona St (94-88) and Boston College (69-64) but picked up its first "W" on Saturday, beating USF 84-69. The Dons lost two key players from last season in leading scorer Mineland (14.4 & 4.7) and huge center Lull (11.9 & 7.6). This year's team revolves around senior PG Bouyea (18.0 & 5.6 APG), junior SG Shabazz (16.7) and 6-9 junior Ryuny (10.3 & 5.0). The Rams lost guard Dowtin (13.9-3.5-3.2) and forward Langevine (10.1 & 10.3) to graduation plus guard Martin (12.8 & 7.1) transferred to UConn. However, PG Fatts Russell (18.8 PPG and 4.6 APG last season) returns along with SG Shepard (17.1). Russell (16.7-3.7-4.0) is off to a solid start, as is Sheppard (13.1). A pair of 6-7 forwards have started well too, as Walker starts (10.3 & 5.7) and Johnson (8.3 & 4.3) comes off the bench. The Mitchell twins share time at center with Makhi averaging 5.7 & 5.3 and Makhel averaging 5.0 & 2.7. Shooting guard Carey is a Syracuse transfer and he's averaging 9.3 PPG. I believe Rhode Island is the better team by a fairly wide margin and is catching San Francisco off it HUGE upset of Virginia, when the Cavs shot 3 of 12 from behind the arc and San Francisco countered by going 13 of 28. NO repeat effort here by the Dons and the Rams win by double digits! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-29-20 | 49ers v. Rams -6.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -102 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET. Entering Week 11, the Cards, Rams and Seahawks all were 6-3, tied atop the NFC West. Meanwhile, the defending NFC West champion 49ers (not to mention the defending NFC champs), were just 4-6 and 'enjoying' their bye week. Seattle won 28-21 at home over Arizona on Thursday, moving to 7-3 and dropping the Cards to 6-4. The Rams were in Tampa for MNF against the Bucs and needed a win to stay tied with Seattle and did just that with a 27-24 win. The 49ers travel to LA's SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Ca on Sunday, with the Rams hoping to avenge a 24-16 loss at San Francisco back in Week 6. The 49ers have struggled all season with significant injuries and Nick Mullens (67.3% for 1,390 yards with six TDs and six INTs) will again get the start at QB with Jimmy G still sidelined. Garoppolo threw three TD passes in that Week 6 win, all to receivers who are currently injured (tight end George Kittle), trying to return from an injury (wide receiver Deebo Samuel), or attempting to get reinstated from the COVID-19 list (wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk). Garoppolo is currently on injured reserve himself, with a high-ankle sprain. RB Mostert (772 yards on 5.6 YPC with eight TDs) has played just four games (303 yards), leaving McKinnon as the "best of the rest" with 294 yards on 3.8 YPC but does have five TDs, The 49ers are averaging only 11.,0 YPG on the ground (averaged 141.0 LY) and I already noted the receiving woes. After averaging 29.9 PPG last season, the 49ers are averaging just 23.8 PPG (20th) in 2020. Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for just over 4,500 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 16-8 (QB rating of 95.5). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.5 YPG (4.2 YPC) this season. Henderson (491 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (367 yards on 4.4 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. Kupp had 11 catches vs Tampa (64 on the season) and Woods had 12 catches (54 on the season) plus the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 53 catches and four TDs. Led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks second in scoring defense (19.2 PPG) and 1st in total defense (291.9 YPG). Goff came up HUGE in outplaying Brady on MNF (376 passing yards with three TDs) and enters this contest with THREE consecutive 300-yard games. As for the Rams D, it recorded six sacks and two interceptions against Seattle's Russell Wilson, before limiting Tampa Bay's Tom Brady to just 216 passing yards with two interceptions. Hard to see them NOT containing Nick Mullens. The Rams should be primed to break a three-game losing streak to the 49ers and why shouldn't they win here at SoFi Stadium, where they are 4-0 (3-1 ATS), while holding opponents to just 13.0 PPG. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-29-20 | Panthers v. Vikings -3 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -120 | 67 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Signature LEGEND Play is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. The Carolina Panthers ended a five-game slide with a 20-0 win last Sunday against the Lions (win doesn't mean much after Detroit's Thanksgiving effort), while the Minnesota Vikings saw their three-game winning streak end with a last-minute 31-28 loss to the Cowboys (looks even worse off Dallas' Thanksgiving effort). The 4-7 Panthers travel to the 4-6 Vikings for a Sunday game between two teams not expecting to be playing postseason football in 2020. However, there is a good storyline to this contest, as Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater has been cleared to play (he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday). This will mark his first start against his former team since he suffered a horrific left knee injury during the Vikings' 2016 training camp. The bad news for Carolina is that although RB Christian McCaffrey returned to practice Wednesday after missing the past two games with a shoulder injury, head coach Matt Rhule doesn't expect his star RB to play against the Vikings. Bridgewater missed Carolina's 20-0 win last Sunday but despite the team's poor season, he's completed 72.1% for 2,552 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. However, with McCaffrey playing only three games, Carolina's running game has NOT given Bridgewater much help, averaging only 106.4 YPG (21st). RB Davis has a modest 449 rushing yards but does help the passing game, as he's tied for second on the team with 49 catches, matching WR Samuel. Samuel averages just 9.1 YPC but WRs Anderson (team-leading 71 catches) and Moore (46 catches / 18.8 YPC / 4 TDs) have had good seasons. Carolina's shutout last week was its first in FIVE years but the D has been middle-of-the-pack all season, allowing 24.7 PPG to rank 15th (more later). Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikings to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. 2020 is destined to follow the same script. Minnesota had won three straight games plus covered SIX of seven before its loss to the sad-sack Cowboys. RB Dalvin Cook ran for 115 yards, the FIFTH time he had done so in his last seven contests. Cook now leads the NFL with 1,069 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC with 13 TDs. In his last seven games, he's averaged 136.6 YPG on the ground while scoring 10 of his 13 rushing TDs on the season. QB Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. He has NOT been that good this year but is still completing 66.9% for 2,461 yards with 20 TDs and 11 INTs (102.7 QB rating). It was NOT good news that WR Thielen (49 catches with 11 TDs) was placed on the COVID-19 list on Monday but he has yet to be ruled out for Sunday. He's been a mentor to rookie WR Jefferson, who has 45 catches with a team high 18.8 YPC average and four TDs. Both TEs contribute, as Rudolph and Smith (combined 36 catches) but Smith may miss a second straight game. The problem all season has been a Minnesota defense which is allowing 27.8 PPG. Zimmer's a defensive coach and after he saw his young defense help lead the team to three straight wins by allowing 18.3 PPG, the 'stop unit' reverted to its previous form against the Cowboys. "I thought we were getting better defensively after the last three weeks but that didn't show against Dallas," coach Mike Zimmer said. However, speaking of defenses, I don't put too much credence in the Panthers' shutout of the Lions. Why? It's pretty simple. It was an amazing turnaround for a Panthers defense which had allowed 32.7 PPG over the team's previous four contests in which Carolina had forced just TWO punts! Thielen or no Thielen, the Vikings have a balanced offense that has scored 28 or more points in SIX of its 10 games in 2020. The Vikings enter this contest on a 23-11-3 ATS run as a home favorite and Bridgewater's "return to Minnesota" ends badly for him and the Panthers. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-29-20 | Dolphins v. Jets OVER 44 | Top | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Featured" Sunday Total of the week is on Mia/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET. The Miami Dolphins had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 20-13 loss in Denver last Sunday but look (expect?) to get back on track Sunday at MetLife Stadium when they face the 0-10 NY Jets, The Jets have lost 10 straight games in the same season for the first time in club history and they are two losses from matching their longest losing streak ever, a 12-game skid that bridged the 1995-96 seasons. The two AFC East rivals met in Miami back on Oct 24, with the Dolphins winning 24-0. Tua Tagovailoa was sacked SIX times last Sunday before being benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who started against the Jets the last time the teams met. Tagovailoa came in late during that game and has been Miami's starter since. However, Tagovailoa injured the thumb on his throwing hand in practice during the week. He was originally downgraded from questionable to doubtful for Sunday's game but on Saturday afternoon, the Jets said that veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick would start. He was completing 69.8% when he was benched with 10 TDs and eight INTs. Miami owns an awful running game, averaging 94.4 YPG (30th), with Myles Gaskins (despite playing in only seven games) leading the team with 387 yards on 3.9 YPC with two TDs. He also has 30 catches, second-most on the team. WR Parker leads with 44 catches and four TDs, while TE Gesicki has 28 receptions (14.8 YPC) with two TDs. Interestingly, while the offense is averaging just 308.6 YPG (29th), the Dolphins are averaging 26.5 PPG (14th). The defense allows 380.6 YPG (21st) but allows a surprisingly low 26.4 PPG (4th). The Jets also have a change at QB, as Sam Darnold is healthy enough to start, after missing two games with an injured right shoulder. The Jets run the ball no better than the Dolphins, averaging 98.6 YPG on the ground (25th). Leading the way is Frank Gore (447 yards), who is closing in being 100-years-old. However, the real good news is that this game will mark the first time this season Darnold would take the field with all three of his starting WRs, Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims. The Jets enter the game last in scoring (14.9 PPG) and in total offense (268.6 YPG). Then there is a defense that allows 30.2 PPG (31st) on 400.0 YPG (28th). Fitzpatrick was NONE too happy about being benched and the Jets defense may give him every opportunity to deliver a "big game." It doesn't hurt that the Jets are one of the MANY teams he once played for. As for the Jets, Darnold should love the fact that his WR starters are back and let's NOT ignore that while the Jets have continued to lose, they have scored 27 and 28 points in their last two games. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-29-20 | Chargers v. Bills -4.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Buff Bills at 1:00 ET. The 3-7 LA Chargers head to Buffalo off a 34-28 victory Sunday over the hapless New York Jets, ending a three-game losing streak. It's been an interesting season , to say the least, for the Chargers in 2020. The Chargers have clearly found a replacement for QB Philip Rivers in Oregon rookie, Justin Herbert. He's completing 68.0% for 2,6099 yards with 22 TDs and six INTs. Looking a little closer, he has set rookie records with FIVE games of three TD passes or more and SEVEN consecutive games where he has at least two TDs. However, the Chargers have blown leads of at least 16 points in FOUR consecutive games. Los Angeles led by as many as 18 points Sunday against the Jets and by 15 in the fourth quarter but needed to make a play deep in their own territory to seal the victory. Buffalo QB Josh Allen is in his third season. He made great strides in his second season (2019) and began the current season as just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. He's come into his own in 2020, completing 68.$5 for 2,871 yards with 21 TDs and seven INTs, while rushing for 279 yards with five TDs, More importantly, he has the Bills at 7-3, putting them in position to capture their first division title since 1995. With RB Austin Ekeler playing just four games, the rLA unning game has averaged just 121.3 YPG on 3.8 YPC. Kelley leads with just 311 yards on 3.0 YPC but Ekeler (hamstring) returned to practice Wednesday, but it is unknown if he will play Sunday. WR Keenan Allen has quietly had some career for the Chargers, garnering very little recognition. However, he set a Chargers single-game record with 16 catches against the Jets and is now one of only FIVE players with two games of at least 15 receptions. The other four are Antonio Brown, Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker and Jason Witten. Allen entered the 2020 season with 303 receptions his previous three seasons, with six TDs in each. He already has 81 catches through 10 games (on pace for 130) and six TDs. A problem has been a defense allowing 27.3 PPG (24th) and just CAN'T seem to hold a lead. Buffalo's Josh Allen doesn't get much support from his running game either, as the Bills are averaging just 97.6 YPG on the ground (27th) However, the addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE, as he leads the team with 73 catches for yards (three TDs). Fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 55 through 10 games (on pace for 88). Buffalo's defense allowed just 16.2 PPG last season (2nd to only New England) on 298.3 YPG (3rd) but this season is allowing 26.5 PPG (just 10 points higher), on 373.7 YPG (about 75 yards more per game).The addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE, as he leads the team AND the NFL with 63 catches AND 813 receiving yards (three TDs). Fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 44 through nine games (on pace for 78). Buffalo's defense allowed just 16.2 PPG last season (2nd to only New England) on 298.3 YPG (3rd) but this season is allowing 25.9 PPG (almost 10 points higher), on 36.59 YPG (about 67 yards more per game). The Bills have the AFC East title in their sights and come off a bye after that almost unbelievable last-second loss at Arizona in Week 10. Meanwhile, the Chargers 'limp in' on an 0-4 ATS run, while allowing 30.8 PPG over their last seven games. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-28-20 | Virginia Tech v. Villanova -8.5 | Top | 81-73 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Game of the Month is on Villanova at 8:00 ET. No. 3 Villanova will look for its third consecutive victory to open the season when it takes on Virginia Tech in a newly rescheduled game at Uncasville, Conn on Saturday night. The 2-0 Wildcats captured the 2K Empire Classic with an 83-74 win over No. 18 Arizona State on Thursday, after opening its season with a 76-67 win over BC. The 1-0 Hokies won their season opener with a 77-62 home victory over Radford. Va Tech head coach Mike Young is in his second season with the school, after a record-setting 17-year tenure as the head coach at Wofford. The Terriers posted a 30-5 overall record in 2018-19, including a perfect 18-0 mark in Southern Conference play, and registered a convincing 84-68 win over Seton Hall in the first round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament. Young built the Terriers into one of the Southern Conference's preeminent programs and a perennial NCAA Tournament participant. He guided Wofford to five NCAA Tournament berths over his last 10 seasons and five Southern Conference championships. However, the Hokies were just 16-16 overall in Young's first season at Blacksburg, losing almost two-thirds of their ACC games (7-13). Landers Nolley was selected to the ACC All-Freshman Team in leading the Hokies in scoring (15.5 PPG) last season but after the season he announced he was transferring to Memphis. More bad news came when the 6-6 Horne (7.6 & 4.2) also transferred. Sophomore guard Tyrece Radford (10.2 & 6.2) is both the team's leading returning scorer AND rebounder! However, Young thinks this team will improve because of some experienced graduate transfers. Guard Cartier Diarra averaged 13.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.2 assists at Kansas State last season, and helped them to the Elite Eight in 2018. He will play both guard spots, sometimes alongside Wabissa Bede, who returns after averaging 5.2 PPG and 5.5 APG. Diarra had eight points and Bede nine vs Radford. 6-9 Iowa graduate transfer Cordell Pemsl, 6-7 Delaware transfer Justyn Mutts and 6-7 Keve Aluma, who followed Young from Wofford, add depth and size. Pemsl and Mutts contributed nothing in the win over Radford but Aluma led the team with 19 points. Jay Wright lost Saddiq Bey (16.1 & 4.7) to the NBA (was a first-round NBA draft pick). However, four double digit scorers from last year's team returned. The 6-9 Robinson-Earl (10.5 & 9.4) was one of those four and he's been dominant in the first two games, averaging 23.0 & 9.0. He was joined by a trio of double-digit scorers last season and they are all back. SG Moore is averaging 15.0 & 6.0, PG Gillespie 13.0-3.5-5.5 and the 6-7 Samuels checks in at 7.0 & 7.0. Caleb Daniels transferred in from Tulane and is now eligible. He averaged 16.9 PPG in his last season at Tulane and has averaged 14.0 & 4.0 the first two games. Villanova's preseason ranking of No. 3 was its highest since the 1995-96 season but the Wildcats have yet to "put it all together" in their first two wins. My bet says the THIRD time (game) will be the charm," as Mike Young still has plenty of "work to do" with this Va Tech team. "Blowout Alert!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-28-20 | Kansas State v. Baylor OVER 45 | Top | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 60 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on Kansas St/Baylor Over at 7:00 ET. Chris Klieman was working for Craig Bohl at North Dakota St and when Bohl left to take the Wyoming head coaching job, Klieman took over and won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2014 and '15, lost in the semis in 2016, and then won back-to-back again in 2017 and 2018. He left to take over at Kansas St in 2019, having gone 69-6 in a five-year span with FOUR national championships. He's the 35th head coach in Kansas St history and replaced the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats went 8-5 in 2019, including a 48-41 win at Oklahoma, as a 23 1/2-point underdog. The Wildcats lost their season opener of 2020 at home to Arkansas St (35-31 as more than a two-TD favorite) but then beat the Sooners 38-35 as 28-point dogs, winning in Manhattan against Oklahoma for the first time since 1960. The win over the Sooners jump started a four-game winning streak but the Wildcats enter this game having lost THREE in a row, including last Saturday's 45-0 embarrassment at Iowa St. The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field Sep 26 with a 47-14 home win over Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in that win over Kansas. However, Baylor has lost FIVE straight games! Both teams 'limp' into this contest in Waco. K-State hasn't won since a 55-14 defeat of Kansas helped the Wildcats reach No. 16 in the AP poll but their third straight loss, that 45-0 whitewashing at Iowa State (worst loss in five seasons) has them just 4-4. "Hopefully they're a little ticked off," head coach Chris Klieman said Monday when asked about his players' attitudes. "In the same respect, our leaders are tremendous leaders. We had a good week of practice last week after a tough loss to Oklahoma State. I can promise you that we'll have a good week of practice this week after a tough loss to Iowa State. The Wildcats have had little consistency on offense, with true freshmen, QB Will Howard and RB Deuce Vaughn, showing promise at times but they've also been very unimpressive in other games. Howard was pulled last week after going 3 of 9 for 32 yards with one INT and is completing just 52.8% on the season with more INTs (six) than TD passes (five). Vaughn is the team's leading rusher (just 415 yards) for a team averaging only 124.6 YPG on the ground. Baylor's QB Brewer led the Bears into the Big 12 championship game last season (lost 30-23 in OT to Oklahoma) and to a Sugar Bowl berth (lost 26-14 to Georgia. However, the Bears were 11-3 on the season and Brewer entered 2020 having thrown for over 3,000 yards the previous two seasons, with 40 TD passes and 16 INTs. He's completing 62.0% this season but for just 1,278 yards with a modest 11 TDs and six INTs. Baylor doesn't have a RB with even 200 yards rushing, as the Bears are averaging 107.8 YPG on the ground. At first blush one could say "under" but the K-state defense is allowing 27.6 PPG and Baylor D is allowing 27.2 PPG. Baylor has been in every game, beginning with a double-overtime loss at West Virginia and most recently in a one-point loss at Texas Tech on Nov. 14. FOUR of its five losses have been on the road, so some home cookin' just might help. As for Kansas St, how can't the Wildcats bounce-back after that 'ugly' 45-0 loss at Iowa St? This over/under number is in the mid-40s, VERY low by 2020 standards. I expect the winner to be in the 30s and the loser may join them. Go O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-28-20 | Kansas State +6.5 v. Baylor | Top | 31-32 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Kansas St at 7:00 ET. Chris Klieman was working for Craig Bohl at North Dakota St and when Bohl left to take the Wyoming head coaching job, Klieman took over and won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2014 and '15, lost in the semis in 2016, and then won back-to-back again in 2017 and 2018. He left to take over at Kansas St in 2019, having gone 69-6 in a five-year span with FOUR national championships. He's the 35th head coach in Kansas St history and replaced the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats went 8-5 in 2019, including a 48-41 win at Oklahoma, as a 23 1/2-point underdog. The Wildcats lost their season opener of 2020 at home to Arkansas St (35-31 as more than a two-TD favorite) but then beat the Sooners 38-35 as 28-point dogs, winning in Manhattan against Oklahoma for the first time since 1960. The win over the Sooners jump started a four-game winning streak but the Wildcats enter this game having lost THREE in a row, including last Saturday's 45-0 embarrassment at Iowa St. The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field Sep 26 with a 47-14 home win over Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in that win over Kansas. However, Baylor has lost FIVE straight games! Both teams 'limp' into this contest in Waco. K-State hasn't won since a 55-14 defeat of Kansas helped the Wildcats reach No. 16 in the AP poll but their third straight loss, that 45-0 whitewashing at Iowa State (worst loss in five seasons) has them just 4-4. "Hopefully they're a little ticked off," head coach Chris Klieman said Monday when asked about his players' attitudes. "In the same respect, our leaders are tremendous leaders. We had a good week of practice last week after a tough loss to Oklahoma State. I can promise you that we'll have a good week of practice this week after a tough loss to Iowa State. The Wildcats have had little consistency on offense, with true freshmen, QB Will Howard and RB Deuce Vaughn, showing promise at times but they've also been very unimpressive in other games. Howard was pulled last week after going 3 of 9 for 32 yards with one INT and is completing just 52.8% on the season with more INTs (six) than TD passes (five). Vaughn is the team's leading rusher (just 415 yards) for a team averaging only 124.6 YPG on the ground. Baylor's QB Brewer led the Bears into the Big 12 championship game last season (lost 30-23 in OT to Oklahoma) and to a Sugar Bowl berth (lost 26-14 to Georgia. However, the Bears were 11-3 on the season and Brewer entered 2020 having thrown for over 3,000 yards the previous two seasons, with 40 TD passes and 16 INTs. He's completing 62.0% this season but for just 1,278 yards with a modest 11 TDs and six INTs. Baylor doesn't have a RB with even 200 yards rushing, as the Bears are averaging 107.8 YPG on the ground. Baylor has been in every game, beginning with a double-overtime loss at West Virginia and most recently in a one-point loss at Texas Tech on Nov. 14. FOUR of its five losses have been on the road, so some home cookin' just might help. That said, how can't Kansas St bounce-back after that 'ugly' 45-0 loss at Iowa St? Chris Klieman is a winner (see above) and the Wildcats are 15-6, 71% ATS as a road dog the last four-plus seasons. Also, don't forget that Baylor's LONE win in 2020 is over Kansas, which is 0-7 SU and ATS in 2020 and 6-89 SU in Big 12 play since 2010! Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-28-20 | San Diego State v. Colorado -3 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM Game of the Year is on Colorado at 5:00 ET. The Pac 12 quickly followed the Big Ten by deciding to postpone fall football but just like the Big Ten, the Pac 12 reversed field. While the Big Ten resumed in late October, the Pac 12 didn't get started until early November, leaving even less room if COVID-19 interfered. COVID-19 HAS interfered and this game between Colorado and San Diego St is one of the few instances in which a team has been able to reschedule another game on short notice. Colorado will play at home in Boulder against San Diego State in a non-conference football matchup on Saturday, taking the place of the previously scheduled Colorado at USC football game that was declared a no contest earlier in the week. Brady Hoke was SDSU's head coach back in 2009 and 2010, going 9-4 with a bowl win in 2010 that got him the job at Michigan. Year One went well, as the Wolverines went 11-2 including a Sugar Bowl win. However, Michigan slipped to 8-5 and 7-6 the next two seasons, ending each with a bowl loss. After a 5-7 record in his fourth season, he was fired. He's back as SDSU's head coach this season (made a two-game stop as interim head coach for the Vols when Butch Jones was fired at Tennessee, and he was named head coach in January of 2020 after Rocky Long announced his retirement from coaching. Hoke took over a team that had won 10-plus games in FOUR of the previous five seasons but this year's Aztecs are just 3-2. SDSU owns a strong running game (246.0 YPG on 5.3 YPC) but QB Baker (57.9% for 591 yards with three TDs and three INTs) is mediocre at best (I'm being kind). As DC at SD State, Hoke helped build an excellent defense and this year's unit is allowing just 15.4 PPG (8th) on 270.0 YPG (3rd). However, I have more to say about that, in my 'closing argument!' Karl Dorrell is Colorado's head coach and in his first year at the school. He was head coach at UCLA from 2003 to 2007 and led the Bruins to FIVE bowl appearances in five seasons, although he did not coach in the fifth after he was fired in December 2007. Truth is, his overall record at UCLA was only 35–27. Dorrell was named the 27th full time head coach at Colorado when Mel Tuckers bolted after one season for Michigan St. Tucker took over from Mike MacIntyre, so Dorrell is Colorado's THIRD head coach in as many seasons. The Buffs have played just TWO games but have beaten UCLA 48-42 as a home dog and Stanford 35-32 as a road dog. QB Noyer is completing 63.6% for 512 yards with three TDs and one INT plus has run for 100 yards with three TDs. RB Broussard has 308 yards on 5.3 YPC with three TDs, as the Buffs run for 220.5 YPG with eight TDs. The defense has allowed 37.0 PPG but the SD St offense leaves MUCH to be desired! Let's look closer at SD State, which has lost 28-17 at home to San Jose St (now 4-0) as a 10-point favorite and 26-21 at Nevada (now 5-0) as a 1 1/2-point favorite. The Aztecs' wins have come over 0-4 UNLV, 1-4 Utah St (won its first game on Thanksgiving) and 2-3 Hawaii. This game was put together quickly and both teams will have VERY little prep time but San Diego St is playing on the road for the FOURTH time in five weeks, Colorado takes the field for the first time since Nov 14. It's a PERFECT STORM for the Buffs! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-28-20 | Louisville v. Boston College -1 | Top | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Boston College at 4:00 ET. Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had a six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinals were unranked in the AP's preseason poll but were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. That win saw Louisville rise to No. 18 in the AP poll but Louisville then lost FOUR in a row. The Cardinals are 2-2 in their last four games but the wins have come over 2-6 Florida St and 1-8 Syracuse Steve Addazio coached Boston College to SIX bowl appearances in his seven seasons but never won more than SEVEN games in any season. On December 1, 2019 following the conclusion of a 6-6 regular season, Boston College fired him (career record at BC was 44-44). Jeff Hafley was hired to be the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State and quickly established himself as one of the best recruiters in the country. He was hired to be the head coach at Boston College after the firing of Addazio. Boston College is 5-4 (4-4 in the ACC) in Hafley's first season and takes the field at home vs Louisville for the first time since a 45-31 loss to No. 2 Notre Dame on Nov 14. Louisville QB Cunningham has completed 63.7% for 2,126 yards with 16 TDs and 11 INTS plus has run for 438 yards with six TDs. RB Hawkins has had a solid season (822 yards on 6.2 YPC with seven TDs) but WR Atwal, after catching 70 balls for 18.2 YPC with 12 TDs last season, has only 41 catches for 13.3 YPC with six TDs. BC's Joe Jurkovec has done a nice job at QB, throwing for 2,355 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs. He's done that despite the BC running game averaging only 104.2 YPG on 3.8 YPC. I believe with Boston College that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The Eagles did a good job 'hanging around' vs Notre Dame (lost by 14 getting 13 1/2-points) and of course, led then No. 1 Clemson in "Death Valley" 26-13 at the half before losing 34-28. Boston College opened 2-0 but has since alternated wins and losses. With a off week between the team's loss to ND and this one, Boston College is DUE to win here and at this "bargain of a price," a "W" means a cover. Satterfield's second season at Louisville has been a HUGE disappointment and NOTHING changes here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-27-20 | Stanford +1 v. California | Top | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Stanford at 4:30 ET. It's simply called the "Big Game." Cal and Stanford first met in 1892 and Stanford leads the all-time series 59-44-10. However, this year's version of the "Big Game" will be played on a Friday for the first time in its history. In another first, both schools enter winless, although that's clearly due to the fact that each school has played just TWO games. David Shaw was named Stanford's head coach in January of 2011, being promoted after Jim Harbaugh left to become head coach of the NFL's San Francisco 49ers. From 2011 through 2018, Shaw led the Cardinal to EIGHT consecutive bowl games, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons. However, Stanford fell to 4-8 in 2019. Justin Wilcox was named Cal's head coach in January of 2017 and the Bears finished just 5-7 in his first season. However, the Bears went 7–6 during Wilcox's second year in 2018, upsetting No. 15 Washington and defeating USC 15–14 at the Coliseum in Los Angeles to snap a 14-year losing streak to the Trojans. The Bears lost 10–7 in overtime to TCU in the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl. The Bears improved to 8–5 record in 2019, achieving their highest ranking since 2009 when they were ranked No. 15 after a 4–0 start to the season.. Maybe the biggest win of Wilcox's short tenure came when Cal beat Stanford 24-20 in the Big Game last November, for the first time since 2009! Both teams have dealt with cancellations because of the coronavirus, the Cardinal losing out on playing last week's scheduled home game with Washington State while the Golden Bears had their home opener against Washington canceled on Nov 7. Stanford QB Davis Mills had to sit out the opener at Oregon because of a testing mistake but returned to complete 31 of 56 for 327 yards with one TD and not a single INT in his 56 attempts in a 35-32 home loss to Colorado on Nov 14. RBs Peat (114 yards on 10.4 YPC) and Jones (109 yards on 3.8 YPC but with three TDs) give the Stanford offense some balance, with the Cardinal averaging 405.YPG after two contests. However, the defense is a concern, allowing 35. points in each of the team's two games, so far. Cal QB Garbers played well last season (1,712 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs) but has thrown for a modest 433 yards in two games with as many INTs (three) as TDs (three). Cal's offense has NO balance, averaging a woeful 89.0 YPG on the ground on 2.7 YPC. Cal's averaging just 18.5 PPG on 303.5 YPG plus the Golden Bears D has been no better than Stanford's, allowing 32.5 PPG. Cal took home the coveted "Axe" trophy last season for the first time in a decade but the Cardinal are 8-1 in the Big Game under 10th-year head coach David Shaw. Stanford senior offensive lineman Foster Sarell still feels the sting of last year's defeat. "The standard that's been set here, we just beat Cal," he said. "So losing to them it hurt me pretty good. ... We've got to reverse this deal." Both teams are vulnerable of the defensive side of the ball but Stanford is a MUCH better offensive team plus has not thrown a single interception in 82 pass attempts, while allowing just ONE sack plus has also lost just ONE fumble. "Revenge" from last season works perfectly in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-27-20 | Seton Hall +6 v. Louisville | Top | 70-71 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Ultimate Underdog is on Seton Hall at 4:00 ET. Louisville is hosting what will likely be the biggest university-run non-conference event during the 2020-21 college basketball season. It's called the Wade Houston Tipoff Classic and joining the Cardinals are Seton Hall, Western Kentucky, UNC Greensboro, Winthrop, Arkansas-Little Rock, Duquesne, Evansville and Prairie View A&M. The nine teams will play 18 games over a 10-day stretch from Nov 25 to Dec 4. Louisville opened with an easy 79-44 win over Evansville on Wednesday, which replaced Southern Illinois in the field (Salukis drops out due to COVID issues). Carlik Jones had a game-high 18 points and eight rebounds in his first game with Louisville. He's a graduate transfer from Radford and was last season's Big South Conference player of the year (20.0-5.1-5.5). 6-7 swingman Samuelson added 17-6-5, 6-8 freshman Traynor 11 & 5 and 6-8 sophomore Slazinski 10 & 4. This will be Seton Hall's first game and the Pirates enter the current season with high hopes. Seton Hall believed it could have made a run to the Final Four behind All-American guard Myles Powell (21,0 & 4.3) last season, before COVID-19 shut things down. The Pirates were 21-9 and ranked 15th in the country after finishing tied for first in the Big East with a 13-5 record. Powell is now in the NBA but OUTSTANDING head coach Kevin Willard has plenty to work with as the new season opens. PG Shavar Reynolds averaged just 4.2 PPG playing limited minutes last season behind Powell but Willard is counting on Reynolds to set up backcourt mates Bryce Aiken and Takal Molson, first-team All-Big East selection Sandro Mamukelashvili, wings Jared Rhoden and Myles Cale, plus 7-foot-2 center Ike Obiagu. Aiken had an outstanding run at Harvard but announced that he would transfer to Seton Hall for his senior season, choosing the Pirates over Maryland, Michigan and Iowa State. Aiken played just seven games during the 2019–20 season before being sidelined with a season-ending injury but averaged 16.7 PPG in those seven games. The 6-11 Mamukelashvili averaged 11.9 & 6.0 last season and is primed for a big season plus expects MUCH more help from the 7-2 Obiagu.
Here's the rub. Louisville is the host team but attendance for Wednesday's game was just 2,956 at the 22,090-seat KFC Yum! Center with COVID-19 measures in place. As for Seton Hall, the Pirates KNOW all about playing quality opposition. They played 10 ranked teams last season, winning OUTRIGHT over four, top-10 opponents, while losing by just three points to then-No. 3 Michigan St and by two points to then-No. 11 Oregon. Chris Mack was terrific at Xavier and is now coaching Louisville but Willard matches up well. Take the points but an OUTRIGHT win by Seton Hall will be NO surprise. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-27-20 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +6 | Top | 31-17 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on North Carolina at 3:30 ET. 8-0 Notre Dame owns the nation's longest winning streak at 14 in a row and comes off a bye week ranked No. 2 in both the current AP poll and the 1st CFP standings of the 2020 season. The Fighting Irish control their own destiny but as head coach Chip Kelly said, "There's a lot of work left for this football team." With three games remaining, Notre Dame (7-0 in the ACC) still has work to do to qualify for the ACC championship game. Clemson and Miami, both with one loss, are in the mix, while No. 25 North Carolina (6-2 all in the ACC) can stay in contention by defeating the Irish. Notre Dame QB Ian Book has silenced any critics this season by completing 62.0% for 1,818 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. He's added 364 yards on the ground (4.9 YPC) and six TDs. He'll take the field at Chapel Hill with a 28-3 record as Notre Dame's starting QB. RB Williams has 777 yards rushing on 5.7 YPC for a running game that averages 233.5 YPG. Notre Dame is averaging 462.1 YPG and 37.6 PPG (12th), which works well with a defense allowing just 16.6 PPG (11th). However, Notre Dame's 462.1 YPG is about 100 YPG less than North Carolina's average of 563.4 YPG. The Tar Heels are averaging 43.1 PPG (10th) led by QB Howell, who completes 67.7% for 2,631 yards with 23 TDs and just six INTs. North Carolina averages 233.5 YPG on the ground (exact match of ND), led by the terrific RB duo of Williams (868 yards on 7.2 YPC with 15 TDs) and Carter (807 yards on 7.0 YPC with four TDs). The problem all season for Mack Brown's team is a defense allowing 30.8 PPG, two TDs more than Notre Dame's 'stop unit!' Both teams last played on Nov 14, with Notre Dame following its 47-40 (2-OT) win over then-No. 1 Clemson by winning 45-31 at Boston College. That same day, North Carolina wiped out a 21-point second-half deficit to overcome visiting Wake Forest 59-53, as Howell passed for a school-record 550 yards. However, North Carolina's D allowed 606 yards in yielding those 53 points. However, I believe North Carolina can and WILL trade points with Notre Dame, as we saw Clemson backup Uiagalelei do just that by throwing for 439 yards without an INT in 44 attempts, AT South Bend no less! This marks North Carolina's final ACC regular season home game and I believe Notre Dame's perfect season ends right here! Take the points but expect an OUTRIGHT win, just like I called last weekend with Northwestern over Wisconsin. Home dog barks loudly once again! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-27-20 | Iowa State v. Texas +1.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -115 | 48 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Texas at 12:00 ET. No. 15 Iowa State is 6-2 overall, including 6-1 in Big 12 play to sit atop the conference (Cyclones are 6-1 for the first time in program history). Iowa St heads to Austin on the heels of its impressive 45-0 win at home over Kansas State, while No. 20 Texas is 5-2 (4-2 in Big 12 play) is riding a three-game winning streak but hasn't played since Nov 7, as the Longhorns' Nov 21 game at Kansas was postponed to Dec 12 because of positive COVID-19 tests within the Jayhawks' program. I win by Iowa St all but assures the Cyclones a spot in the Big 12 championship game but note that if Texas wins its final three games against Iowa State, Dec 5 at Kansas State and the rescheduled game at Kansas, the Longhorns WILL clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game. Fair to say there is a lot on the line in this "high noon" showdown! Iowa St's Brock Purdy threw for 3,982 yards with 27 TDs and nine INTs last season but hasn't come close to matching those numbers in 2020 (1,713 yards with 13 TDs and six INTs). However, Iowa State boasts the NCAA's leading rusher in Breece Hall (1,169 / 6.5 YPC / 15 TDs), who has rushed for more than 100 yards in ALL eight games, a stat that's also No. 1 nationally. The Cyclones are averaging 34.4 PPG (31st() and allowing 23.4 PPG (30th) a pretty sweet 'daily double.' Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has completed 147-of-250 passes (58.8 percent) for 1,834 yards and 22 TDs with just five INTs. He is also the team leader with 323 rushing yards and seven TDs. His 178 points responsible for are the second-most in the nation this season. Three RBs have combined for 765 yards, as Texas averages a respectable 167.3 YPG on the ground, averaging 4.5 YPC. The Texas offense is producing 40.4 PPG (15th) but its defense allows 29.7 PPG (67th). Here's the bottom line. Iowa State hasn't won in Austin since 2010 and has beaten Texas just THREE times in 17 all-time games. Iowa State hasn't won a conference title since 1912 (does the Missouri Valley championship really count?) and has NEVER played in a conference championship game. Playing Iowa St when it has to WIN to cover here in Austin, makes NO sense. "The Eyes of Texas are upon me!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-26-20 | Washington Football Team v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* NFC 'Least' Battle 4 First is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:30 ET. Dallas plays its annual Thanksgiving Day game in 2020 against Washington and while both teams come in a poor 3-7 on the season, the winner will own first place in the cynically-named "NFC Least!" That is until Monday, when the 3-6-1 Eagles will have a chance to regain the division lead if they can upset the Seahawks. Both Teams will take the field with their Opening Day starter at QB on the sidelines. Washington opened the season with Dwayne Haskins at QB, before he lost his job to Kyle Allen. Then Allen was replaced in a Week 9 game against the Giants by Alex Smith, who was the team's former starter before a brutal leg injury almost ended his career and even his life! Smith is without a doubt one of NFL 2020's great "feel-good" stories. Smith passed for 325 yards in relief of Allen in that 23-20 loss vs the Giants but threw THREE interceptions. He then passed for 390 yards in a 30-27 loss to the Lions the following week but just FOUR days after the second anniversary of an injury that threatened his life (this past Sunday), Smith led Washington to a 20-9 win over Cincinnati. Smith threw for just 166 yards vs the Bengals (zero TDs and zero INTs) but the "W" had to feel VERY good! Washington is averaging just 99.1 YPG on the ground but rookie Antonio Gibson ran for 94 yards last week (note: he had season-high 128 in the team's 25-3 over Dallas in Week 7) and now has 530 yards on the season with eight TDs (he also has 27 catches). WR Terry McLaurin is on pace for close to 100 catches (62 catches / 14.0 YPC / 3 TDs), TE Thomas has 30 catches (3 TDs) and RB McKissic has added 44 receptions. The Washington defense is allowing 315.8 YPG (6th-best) and a modest 22.7 PPG. Dallas has a 'feel good" story of its own last Sunday, as Andy Dalton had three TD passes, including the game-winner with 1:37 left in the game, as the Cowboys snapped a four-game losing streak with a 31-28 win at Minnesota (Vikings entered on a three-game winning streak plus a 6-1 ATS run). It was Dalton's first game since Oct 25, when Washington linebacker Jon Bostic knocked him out of a 25-3 loss in the third quarter with a late hit to the helmet as Dalton slid to end a scramble. A battle with COVID-19 kept Dalton on the sidelines as Dallas continued to cycle through third and fourth-string quarterbacks with little success. The Cowboys offense that shriveled up and died when Dak Prescott ended his season with a frightening leg injury in Week 5. Prescott had averaged over 400 YPG passing through four weeks, with nine TDs and three INTs. However, Dallas finally displayed a balanced offense, as Elliott (675 yards on 3.9 YPC with 5 TDs) ran for more than 100 yards (103) for the first time all season with Dallas running for 180 yards, while passing for 196. More importantly, the team's four TDs touchdowns were TWICE as many as the Cowboys had produced during their four-game skid. Dalton has plenty of targets, with WRs like Cooper (65 catches / 2 TDs), Rookie Lamb (48 catches / 4 TDs) and Gallup (31 catches / team-high 16.0 YPC) plus TE Schultz (39 catches / 3 TDs). Dallas MUST play better defense, as the Cowboys are allowing an NFL-high 31.8 PPG but Washington enters on a six-game road losing streak (0-4 in 2020) and is just 2-10 on the road since the start of 2019. Let me add that Washington has won just ONE of its last eight Thanksgiving games with Dallas and for all its recent woes, the Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 NFC East contests. Dallas gets some revenge from that Week 7 loss in Washington and moves to 4-7, before serving as Seattle 'cheerleaders' Monday night in Philly. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-26-20 | Gonzaga -3.5 v. Kansas | Top | 102-90 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* No. 1 vs No. 1 play is on Gonzaga at 1:30 ET. Kansas was ranked No. 1 in the final poll of the unfinished 2019-20 CBB season and will open this season on Thanksgiving Day at the Fort Myers Tip-Off in Florida against Gonzaga, which finished No. 2 to Kansa last season but opens No. 1 in the AP's preseason poll this year (Kansas is No. 6). respectively, in the polls. Key losses for Kansas are PG Devon Dotson (18.1-4.9-4.0) and the seven-foot Udoka Azubuike (13.7 & 10.5). Two 6-5 guards are back, junior Ochai Agbaji (10.0 & 4.2) and senior Marcus Garrett (9.2-4.5-4.6), one of the nation's top defenders. Joining the backcourt are newcomers Tyon Grant-Foster (a JC transfer) and blue-chip prospect Bryce Thompson. Up front, 6-10 junior David McCormack (6.9 & 4.1) and the 6-8 Justin Wilson (who has bounced back after suffering a broken ankle as a freshman last season). will be tasked with filling Azubuike's shoes. "I don't think we're an unbelievably athletic team," head coach Bill Self said. "I thought initially we could get out and pressure, but I think we can play to our length from a depth standpoint. Could we press some? Zone some? Yeah, I think we could do that, but I have not really thought about how to take advantage of our depth, other than to play hard and force others to defend." "It's a great honor to be selected No. 1," Bulldogs head coach Mark Few said. "We understand that it is more a reflection of what our program has accomplished over the years and hope to play up to that standard as we start our season." The Bulldogs hated to see Filip Petrusev (17.5 & 7.9), last season's West Coast Conference Player of the Year, decide to forgo his final two years of eligibility to pursue a professional career overseas but SF small Corey Kispert (13.9 & 4.0), a preseason All-American, and guard Joel Ayayi (10.6-6.3-3.2) both return. Few has recruited a talented freshman class, one which includes guard Jalen Suggs, a top-10 prospect who is the program's highest-ranked recruit ever. Suggs led his Saint Paul, Mn high school to three straight state titles before COVID-19 ended last season prematurely. Mark Few has done everything but win a national championship since taking over the Gonzaga program for the 1999-2000 season. He has led the Bulldogs to the NCAA Tournament in every season during his tenure as head coach and holds the record for the most consecutive tournament appearances since starting as head coach at 21! His career record at Gonzaga is 599-124 (.828), which is an average of 28.5 wins per season. Is this Gonzaga's year to "win it all?" That's getting way ahead of ourselves but a "W" here gives him a nice round number of 600 career wins. That's my bet and the Zags also get the ATS win. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-25-20 | UCLA -2.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 58-73 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on UCLA at 10:30 ET. The UCLA Bruins and the San Diego State Aztecs open their respective 2020-21 seasons Wednesday night at Viejas Arena in San Diego. It's a meeting of two excellent head coaches as Mick Cronin of UCLA and Brain Dutcher of SD State will go mano-a-mano. Cronin began his coaching career at Murray St, leading the Racers to two Big Dance appearances in three years. He got the Cincinnati job to begin the 2006-07 season but after four years, had just a 61-68 record. However, NINE consecutive NCAA Tourney appearances, as his Bearcats posted a 235-78 (.751) record. He moved to Westwood last season and his Bruins got better as the year progressed and was playing their best ball when the season was shut down. Brian Dutcher has more than 30 years of coaching experience, including 18 seasons as an assistant to Steve Fisher, first at Michigan and then at San Diego St. Dutcher joined then-interim coach Fisher in 1989 when Michigan won the national championship. He is credited for having a central role in recruiting the Fab Five to Michigan and for bringing Kawhi Leonard to San Diego St. Dutcher was named San Diego State's "head coach in waiting" in 2011.[Following Fisher's decision to retire, Dutcher was formally named as his replacement on April 11, 2017. The Aztecs won 22 and 21 games in his first two seasons but last season, the team opened 26-0 with impressive road/neutral site wins over BYU, Creighton, Iowa, and Utah State. SD State finished 30-2 and ranked No. 6 when the season shut down. Mick Cronin’s first year as UCLA's head coach ended 19-12, including a 12-6 Pac-12 record, good enough to get the No. 2 seed in the conference tournament. UCLA wouldn’t get their chance to win the tournament though as the Pac-12 tournament and subsequently the NCAA tournament were cancelled on the same day back in March. The good news for the 2020-21 season for UCLA is that it brings back almost its entire team from last year, only losing Prince Ali (6.8 PPG) as a graduating senior. UCLA is led by senior SG Chris Smith, who was named the Pac-12 Conference's Most Improved Player of the Year last season after averaging a team-high 13.1 points and 5.4 rebounds. "Somebody I expect to have a monster season," UCLA coach Mick Cronin said. "It's imperative for us that Chris competes for Pac-12 Player of the Year and All-American status, and he's consistent every night." The 6-10 Hill (9.0 & 6.9) and 6-9 Riley (8.8 & 4.5) are the team's two-best frontcourt players, while big guards Jaquez (8.9 & 4.8) and Campbell (8.3) join Smith on the perimeter. Dutcher brought in transfers Malachi Flynn, Yanni Wetzell, K.J. Feagin, and Trey Pulliam, to mesh returnees Matt Mitchell, Jordan Shackel, Nathan Mensah, and Adam Sieko, as the Aztecs put together one of their best season's in program history last year. However, the Aztecs lost MWC player-of-the-year Malachi Flynn (17.6-4.5-3.1) to the NBA while Yanni Wetzell (11.6 & 6.5) transferred to Vandy and Feagin (9.1) has finished up his time with the program. The good news for Brian Dutcher is that Matt Mitchell (12.2 & 4.8) flirted with the NBA draft but returned, G]guard Jordan Schakel (10.0 & 3.4) is back plus the 6-10 Nathan Mensah is healthy after playing just 13 games last season when he averaged 6.9 & 6.8 in about 20 minutes. Help also figures to come from Terrell Gomez, a transfer from CSU-Northridge after leading the Matadors with 19.8 PPG. Here's the rub. UCLA is ranked 22nd in the preseason AP poll, while SD St (30-2 last season and ranked 6th in the final poll) was NOT included in the preseason top-25. I have often pointed out that poll rankings can be misleading but it's not often that linemakers are fooled and they made UCLA a small road favorite, despite playing at one of the toughest road venues in college hoops. I have little doubt that Dutcher will produce another strong season but UCLA was on a 5-0-1 ATS run when last season was shut down, plus ended the season on a 4-0 ATS run on the road. I'm taking the Bruins here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-25-20 | Clemson -4 v. Mississippi State | Top | 53-42 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Tourney Takedown is on Clemson at 8:30 ET.
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the TB Bucs at 8:15 ET. The 6-3 Los Angeles Rams need a win to keep pace with the 7-3 Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West and the 7-3 Tampa Bay Bucs need a win to stay just a half-game back of the 8-2 Saints in the NFC South. Tampa Bay has a lot of prime-time exposure with the addition of TB-12 but tonight's game "main attraction" could be two of the NFL's best defenses. Led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald (nine sacks), Los Angeles ranks second in both scoring defense (18.7 PPG) and total defense (296.4 YPG), while also ranking third in passing defense (199.7 YPG) and fifth in rushing defense (96.8 YPG). Tampa Bay's "stop unit" ain't bad themselves, ranking first in rushing defense (76.6 YPG) and third in total defense (300.3 YPG). Tampa Bay is eighth in scoring defense (22.6 PPG) and ninth in passing defense (223.7 YPG). Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing fir 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for just over 4,300 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 13-6 (QB rating of 94.9). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 134.2 YPG (4.3 YPC) this season. Henderson (486 yards on 4.8 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (347 yards on 4.3 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. Kupp (53 catches / 2 TDs) and Woods (42 catches / 4 TDs) are quality WRs and the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 45 catches and four TDs. Brady has completed 66.0% for 2,739 yards with 23 TDs and seven INTs and RB Jones has 730 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC on 5.1 YPC with five TDs, after running for a career-high 192 yards last Sunday. Brady has plenty of targets, in WRs Evans (40 catches / 8 TDs) and Miller (27 catches / 2 TDs) and TE Gronk (29 catches / 4 TDs), who has 17 catches and all four TDs in his last five games. Then there has been the addition of the controversial Antonio Brown (10 catches in two games), who when "not in trouble," caught 100-plus passes for six consecutive seasons for Pittsburgh (2013-18) with 67 TD receptions! Both teams are hoping to win their respective divisions but the winner of this game also takes a step toward a wild card spot. The Bucs entered the week trailing the Saints by a half game in the NFC South but realistically it’s a game and a half because New Orleans owns the first head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0 this season vs Tampa). Speaking of those two games with the Saints, Brady has thrown FIVE of his seven INTs on the season in them, while his TD/INT ratio in Tampa Bay's other eight games is 21-2, with the Bucs going 7-1. Yes, the Bucs were embarrassed by the Saints at home but they are 3-0 in their other three home games, averaging 35.7 PPG. The Bucs already have matched their win total from 2019, but that was never the goal. You don’t sign a 43-year-old Brady, trade for tight end Rob Gronkowski and add receiver Antonio Brown, and running backs Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy as free agents unless it’s Super Bowl or bust. Lay the points with Tampa Bay. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-22-20 | Chiefs -6.5 v. Raiders | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 100 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. SNF features a classic AFL rivalry, the Chiefs and Raiders. The defending champs are 8-1 and are coming off a bye to visit Las Vegas, where they will take on the 6-3 Raiders. The Raiders shocked the Chiefs 40-32 at Kansas City back in Week 5, as 11-point underdogs. The Raiders got crushed 45-20 at home by the Bucs in their next game but enter this contest on a 3-0 SU & ATS run. Mahomes is completing 66.9% for 2,687 yards with 25 TDs and just one INT (115.9 QB rating) but Carr is not far behind, completing 69.3% for 2,56 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs (107.4 QB rating). However, hanging over the game is COVID-19 issues. This paragraph is copied directly from a game preview to give the info its proper respect. The Raiders had their Oct 25 prime time game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers shifted to the afternoon when offensive tackle Trent Brown came down with the virus and the entire starting offensive line was forced into quarantine until the morning of the game because of their high-risk contact with Brown. Tampa Bay cruised to a 45-20 victory. Following a positive test by starting defensive end Clelin Ferrell on Tuesday, seven more Raiders defensive players were put on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday - safety Johnathan Abram, defensive tackles Maliek Collins, Johnathan Hankins and Kendal Vickers, defensive back Isaiah Johnson, defensive end Arden Key and practice squad defensive end David Irving. They join safety Lamarcus Joyner, previously identified as a close contact of Ferrell, Brown and linebacker Cory Littleton, who was placed on the list last week. Ferrell is likely out for Sunday night's game as is Brown, who isn't expected back until next week. But the other players will be eligible to play Sunday, as long as they continue to test negative. Kansas City has its own COVID-19 issues with both starting offensive tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, as well as backup Martinas Rankin going on the COVID list earlier this week after being in close contact with someone who tested positive. All could play Sunday, barring a positive test result. As noted above, Mahomes is having a superb season. Rookie RB Edwards-Helaire 'exploded' on the scene in Week 1 with 138 yards but he's had just one 100-yard game since. He has 586 yards on 4.7 YPC with two TDs on the season. The KC offense revolves around Mahomes and his spectacular group of receivers. Kelce is the best TE in the game and leads with 58 catches and six TDs. WR Hill is a game-changer/game-breaker with 44 catches and nine TDs (one rushing TD, as well). The WR trio of Hardeman, Watkins and Robinson have combined for 67 catches and five TDs. On the defensive side of the ball, KC's improvement helped them win the Super Bowl last season and make them one of the favorites to possibly win again in 2020. KC allowed 405.5 YPG (second-worst in the NFL) in 2018, while allowing 26.3 PPG. However, KC allowed just 19.3 PPG in 2019 and here in 2020, is allowing 20.3 PPG. Carr's having a career-season and second-year RB Josh Jacobs has proven his rookie season was no fluke (1,150 yards on 4.8 YPC with 7 TDs in 13 games). Jacobs may be averaging a modest 3.8 YPC but he's run for 700 yards with eight TDs plus has 23 catches (just 20 all of last season). TE Waller may not be Kelce (just yet, anyway) but he has 53 catches and four TDs. WR Renfrow has 29 catches but the team's "big play" receiver is Agholor who has made his 18 catches count, averaging 19.7 YPC with five TDs. Here's the rub. Gruden's defense has allowed 26.8 PPG on the season. Ferrell is likely out for Sunday night's game as is Brown, who isn't expected back until next week. The other players will be eligible to play Sunday, as long as they continue to test negative. However, those players will be limited to virtual practices and meetings until then and won't be allowed on the practice field together. Not exactly the best way to get your defense prepared for reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and Co. KC has a HUGE "revenge motive" from the Raiders' 40-32 in their first meeting on back on Oct 11, the team's LONE loss in its last 18 games (including the postseason) in 18 games (17-1) plus then there is ONE more important stat. KC head coach Andy Reid is 18-3 SU in regular-season games after a bye during his 22 seasons as a head coach! Also, despite the Raiders' win at KC earlier this season, they've won just TWO of their last 11 against the Chiefs since 2015. One closing thought. Yes, KC has a 'number' to cover but the well-rested Chiefs check in on a 23-8 ATS run as an away favorite. Lay it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-22-20 | Packers +2.5 v. Colts | Top | 31-34 | Loss | -107 | 58 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner of the Month is on the Green Bay Packers at 4:25 ET. The Packers opened the season 4-0 SU & ATS and while it hasn't been a smooth ride, Green Bay 7-2 is tied with New Orleans for the NFC' best record (note: San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans were all 13-3 last season, with the 49ers and Packers getting the No. 1 and No, 2 seeds, respectively due to tiebreakers). QB Aaron Rodgers has helped steer the Packers, despite various injuries to some of the team's most reliable playmakers. The Colts made a big 'splash' in the offseason by singing Philip Rivers as a free agent but the key to Indy's 6-3 record (tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South) has been a defense that ranks first in total yards (290.4 per game) and 4th in scoring (19.7 PPG). These two first place clubs square off Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium. Rodgers is again at "the top of his game," completing 67.8% for 2,578 yards for 2,578 yards with 26 TDs and just three INTs (116.4 QB rating). RB Jones has dealt with injuries (he's missed two games) but he has 493 rushing yards on 4.8 YPC with five TDs, while catching 28 passes with two more TDs. WR Davante Adams missed practice Wednesday after tweaking a previously balky ankle in a Week 10 home win against Jacksonville, but indications are he will play against the Colts. In his seven games he's caught 61 balls with nine TDs on the season, after 38 catches with seven TDs in his last four games. Fellow WR Valdez-Scantling has a modest 22 catches (he hasn't missed a game) but he's averaging 21.0 YPC with four TDs. TE Tonyan has 27 catches and five TDs. Green Bay is averaging 30.8 PPG, with only Seattle and KC (each at 31.8 PPG) scoring more. The defense has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 24.9 PPG. Rivers has provided a steady hand at QB but while he's completing 68.7% for 2,395 yards but his TD/INT ratio is a modest 11-7. Big things were expected from Wisconsin rookie Jonathan Taylor but he's got a modest 428 rushing yards on 3.8 YPC with four TDs. The Indy running game is averaging only 105.8 YPG on 3.8 YPC. Fellow RB Hines has just 177 yards on the ground but leads the team with 33 catches and with four TD receptions. WR Hilton has been banged up on-and-off this season and checks in with just 26 catches and not a single TD catch. WR Pascal has 28 catches (2 TDs) and TE Alie-Cox adds 20 catches and two TDs. As noted above, the Colts are where they are because of their D (see above for a reminder). The Colts have beaten Green Bay's fellow NFC North 'partners' (Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota) but Green Bay is a 'horse of a different color!' The Packers are off an uninspiring 24-20 over hapless Jacksonville but that so-so effort should have them VERY focused on this game. Green Bay can 'sniff' the NFC's No. 1 seed, as after the Colts, Green Bay faces just ONE team with a current winning record (Titans in Week 16) over its final six games. As for the Colts, they come off a HUGE win at Tennessee in Week 10, moving them into a tie atop the AFC South with the Titans. Indy's defense gets a real test against Rodgers and Co plus just could be peeking ahead to next week's home game with the Titans. I view this as the perfect situation for a Green By win. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-22-20 | Titans v. Ravens -6 | Top | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* AFC North Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites. Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for Mariota midway through the 2019 season and was a steady hand during the Titans' strong regular season finish and their playoff run. That playoff run saw them win at New England and Baltimore before losing at KC in the AFC championship game. However, most thought of Tannehill as little more than a "game-manager," with the Tennessee offense relying on RB Derrick Henry. That's changed in 2020, as Tannehill has completed 64.8% for 2,128 yards with 20 TDs and three INTs (106.9 QB rating). Henry is having another strong season, running for 946 yards on 4.7 YPC with eight TDs. That's all well and fine but after opening 5-0, the Titans have lost THREE of their last four. While Tannehill's numbers on the season remain very good, he's barely completed 50% of his passes (25 of 48) for an average of just 152.5 YPG in the team's last two games. He had completed 67.4% of his passes in his first seven games, averaging 244.0 YPG through the air. The Tennessee defense is also allowing almost SIX points per game more than last season, 26.1-to-20.7. The Ravens opened the season 5-1, with their lone loss coming to the defending champion Chiefs. However, Baltimore has has lost TWO of its last three, falling at home to Pittsburgh 28-24 in Week 8 and 23-17 at New England in Week 10. Jackson is playing well, completing 64.0% for 1,762 yards with 14 TDs and five INTs, while again leading the team in rushing with 524 yards on 5.8 YPC with three TDs. The running game is averaging a healthy 164.0 YPG but that's down from the team's NFL record 206.0 YPG last season, RB Ingram joined Jackson as a 1,000-yard rusher in 2019 but he has just 230 yards so far this season, as Edwards (370 yards) and Dobbins (310 yards) join him as a rotating three-back attack. WR Brown has 32 catches, while the trio of Snead, Boykin and Duvernoy have combined for 53 catches. TE Andrews has a team-highs in catches (33) and TD receptions (six). The Baltimore D is allowing 18.3 PPG (17.6 LY) on 323.0 YPG (330.6 LY). The Ravens HAVE to win this one and the extra bonus of "playoff revenge" makes me like the play even more. Let me review that playoff game from last year. Baltimore outgained Tennessee 530-to-300 in yards and 29-15 in FDs. Jackson passed for 365 yards and ran for 143 but coughed up THREE turnovers and was 0 of 4 on fourth down attempts. If the Ravens can't win here, their season is effectively over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-22-20 | Falcons v. Saints -4.5 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 93 h 53 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insiders is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. The New Orleans Saints have won SIX in a row and at 7-2, lead the 7-3 Tampa Bay Bucs in the NFC South by just a half-game. However, they own the important tiebreaker, having beaten the Bucs in BOTH regular meetings, including a 38-3 beatdown at Tampa in Week 9. It's 'lucky' Week 11 but the Saints will be without QB Drew Brees for an indefinite period of time due to rib and lung injuries. Visiting New Orleans on Sunday will be the 3-6 Atlanta Falcons, who are coming off a bye week and have turned things around after a 0-5 start with a 3-1 record under interim head coach Raheem Morris. This contest marks the first of two matchups between the Falcons and Saints in a three-week span, as the Saints will visit Atlanta for a Week 13 game. When Atlanta lost 23-16 at home to Carolina to fall to 0-5, head coach Dan Quinn was fired (should have been gone right after that INCREDIBLE Super Bowl collapse). The Falcons named Raheem Morris as interim head coach and the Falcons are 3-1 but with ANY luck, would be 4-0 (lost to Detroit on the game's final play). Matt Ryan will be close to 5,000 passing yards once again, as he's completing 67.2% for 2,746yards with 15 TDs and five INTs. Third-year WR Ridley is having an excellent season (43 catches / 15.3 YPC / 6 TDs) but he was limited in practice Wednesday because of a foot injury. The good news is that superstar WR Julio Jones is rejuvenated (and healthy), catching 28 balls for an average of 106.2 YPG over the last four games The signing of RB Todd Gurley has NOT improved the running game as much as expected. He does have 584 yards but has averaged just 3.7 YPC. Still, his nine TDs through nine games "ain't bad!" The Atlanta defense has been a problem all season and can't be counted on, allowing 27.9 PPG on 410.0 YPG. Many will remember that the Saints went 5-0 with Teddy Bridgewater at QB in 2019 while Brees recovered from thumb surgery. Former Tampa Bay starter Jameis Winston is expected to replace Brees, although Taysom Hill could also take some snaps from center in addition to his usual reps at a variety of skill positions. Winston completed 6 of 10 passes for 63 yards after Brees went down last Sunday, while Hill rushed eight times for 45 yards (he did lose a fumble). Whichever QB is in the game, "Job One" is to get the ball to RB Alvin Kamara, who is second in the NFL in yards from scrimmage. Kamara has 486 yards rushing (4.7 YPC / 7 TDs) and is tied for second in the NFL with 67 receptions (Diggs leads with 73 but has played one more game) plus has four TD receptions. Brees' injury last Sunday was the "bad news" but the "good news" was that WR Michael Thomas (149 catches last season, an NFL record) played for the second straight week. Let's NOT forget the New Orleans defense, which is allowing 308.2 YPG (more than 100 YPG less than Atlanta's), to rank 4th in the league. Of course, I'd prefer a healthy Brees but I'm NOT sure I'd play the Saints laying more than a TD (the likely line with Brees at QB). Winston has NEVER been a favorite of mine but he's no backup. He started 70 games the last five seasons with the Bucs and I'm convinced Payton will be able to use Hill's talents in a complementary role. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-22-20 | Bengals v. Washington Football Team OVER 46.5 | Top | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 10 m | Show |
My "Featured" 10* Sunday Total is on Cin/Was Over at 1:00 ET. The top two picks in the 2020 NFL Draft will face off for the first time Sunday when QB Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Washington Football Team and defensive end Chase Young in Landover, Md. Burrow has earned praise from across the league for his poise, accuracy and the speed with which he's adapted to the pro game, while Young has NOT had a big impact with 21 tackles and 3.5 sacks in eight games, all starts. Cincinnati checks in at 2-6-1 and has yet to win on the road (0-4-1) in 2020, while Washington is 2-7 but actually remains in contention in the NFC Least,' where the 3-5-1 Eagles are in first place and the 3-7 Giants are second place. The Cincy OL has hampered both Burrow (he's been sacked 32 times) and the team's running game (105.4 YPG on 4.0 YPC) but Burrow has completed 65.4% for 2,485 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs. Mixon is the team's best RB (428 yards on just 3.6 YPC) but he remains out (last played Oct 18) and Beranrd's value is as a receiver (28 catches with two TDs). WRs Boyd (60 catches / 3 TDs) and Higgins (40 catches / 4 TDs) have both been solid but A.J. Green continues to underperform (31 catches on the season), with just TWO receptions for 19 yards in the last two games. Burrow will look (NEED) to bounce back, after Cincy's 'ugly' 36-10 road loss at undefeated Pittsburgh last week. He passed for just 213 yards and the Bengals were 0-for-13 on third down.! In stark contrast, while Washington lost 30-27 at Detroit in Week 10, QB Alex Smiths continued one of the season's better 'feel good' stories. It's taken nearly two years for him to return to the starting lineup but took him only two games to inject himself into the conversation over whether he can be Washington's future quarterback. He's thrown for a combined 715 yards in Washington's last two losses, nearly leading comebacks from large deficits each time. Smith has returned to a place few thought he would reach again. In Sunday's 30-27 loss to the Detroit Lions, Smith's first start since breaking the fibula and tibia in his right leg on Nov 18, 2018, he completed a career-high 38 passes for 390 yards. Washington tied the game after trailing by 21 points in the second half only to lose on a last-second field goal. Washington's running game (91.9 YPG on 3.8 YPC) is even worse than Cincy's, although Gibson did have two rushing TDs against Detroit, giving him seven on the season (436 yards on 4.2 YPC). Fellow RB McKissic is used more as a receiver, as he has 41 catches. WR McLaurin (57 catches / 13.8 YPC / 3 TDs) is Washington's best receiver, although TE Thomas (28 / 3 TDs) has been effective at times. The Bengals are just 2-6-1 but they own a 6-3 ATS record. They have been non-competitive at Baltimore and Pittsburgh but 2-4-1 (6-1 ATS) in their other seven games. NONE of those four losses have come by more than FIVE points and there was that tie at Philly. Washington still has some motivation, as a win here and at Dallas on Thanksgiving, would move them to 4-7. The Eagles are at 6-3 Cleveland this week and they play Seattle (7-3), Green Bay (7-2) and New Orleans (7-3) their next three! Neither Burrow nor Smith can rely on any help from their respective running games, so expect both to have big games. Expect Burrow to bounce-back from his POOR effort at Pittsburgh and Smith faces a Cincy D which allows 30.4 PPG on the road. Go O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-21-20 | Liberty v. NC State -3 | Top | 14-15 | Loss | -114 | 49 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Game of the Month is on NC State at 7:30 ET.
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11-21-20 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern +7.5 | Top | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 44 h 14 m | Show |
My CFB 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Northwestern at 7:30 ET. Paul Chyrst was hired at Wisconsin in 2015, after leading Pitt to three straight bowls from 2012-14 but note his overall record was only 19-19. He led the Badgers to FIVE straight bowl games, winning the first four, before losing 28-27 to Oregon in last season's Rose Bowl. His overall record with Wisconsin is 52-16 (.765) entering 2020. Pat Fitzgerald played at Northwestern and was an assistant coach from 2001-05 until his promotion to head coach after the unexpected death of Randy Walker in June 2006. He was just 10-14 in his first two seasons but then led the Wildcats to NINE bowl in the next 12 years, winning 10 games in 2012, 2015 and 2018. Northwestern fell to just 3-9 last season but the Wildcats are off to a 40-0 stat in the Big Ten in 2020, for the first time since 1996. Wisconsin expected that RB Jonathan Taylor (2,003 rushing yards in 2019) would leave a year early for the NFL but Paul Chryst couldn't have planned for the loss of QB Jack Coan (69.6% / 2,727 yards / 18 TDs and just five INTs in 2019) to a foot injury on Oct 10. However, redshirt freshman Graham Mertz got the start on Oct 23 vs Illinois and completed 20 of 21 passes for 248 yards with five TDs and no INTs in the Badgers 45-7 rout. Then came a COVID-19 outbreak that included both Mertz and head coach Chryst. Wisconsin's next two games were canceled but the Badgers returned to play last Saturday at Michigan and routed the Wolverines 49-11. Mertz was pretty average vs Michigan (12 of 22 for only 127 yards with two TDs and zero INTs) but Wisconsin ran all over Michigan (341 rushing yards on 6.7 YPC) and after two early INTs by the defense set up two quicks TDs, the game was never in doubt. Northwestern QB Ramsey has been OK but hardly special (65.8% for 723 yards with six TDs and four INTs). The running game averages 174.0 PPG, almost 100 yards less than Wisconsin's 261.5 YPG on 5.0 YPC. In the first five seasons of the "Chryst era" at Wisconsin, his 'stop units' have allowed 13.7, 15.6, 13.9, 22.6 and 16.9 PPG. It's been just two games in 2020 but Wisconsin is No. 1 in scoring D (9.0 PPG) and No. 1 in total D (218.5 YPG). That said, don't dismiss the Northwestern D, which is allowing 14.0 PPG (7th) on 301.8 YPG (4th). I'm still not quite sure how good Wisconsin really is because Illinois is an awful team and Harbaugh's Michigan team is a joke! How good is Mertz, really? Northwestern's graduate transfer Peyton Ramsey had his best game for the Wildcats, throwing for three TDs and 212 yards at Purdue and history tells us that the Wildcats have been especially successful against the Badgers at home, winning FIVE of the past six matchups at Ryan Field. This game has earned the title of a de facto Big Ten championship semifinal, with the Wildcats (4-0) and Badgers (2-0) tied for first place in the division and the winner controlling its own destiny to play next month for the conference title at Indianapolis. Can the Wildcats pull the upset? I thinks so but will be SURE to take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-21-20 | Cincinnati v. Central Florida +6 | Top | 36-33 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Revenge Rout is on UCF at 3:30 ET. Luke Fickel was an assistant at Ohio St from 2002-16 but on December 10, 2016, was named as the 39th head coach of the University of Cincinnati, taking the place of the resigning Tommy Tuberville. Fickell's Bearcats went just 4-8 in his first season but 2018 would be a historic turnaround for the program, as Cincy finished with an 11-2 record and a 35-31 victory in the Military Bowl over Va Tech. Fickell was named AAC Coach of the Year for the 2018 season, which was only the third 11-win season in UC history. He led the team to another 11-win season in 2019. The Bearcats reeled off NINE straight wins after falling to Ohio State in the second game of the year but fell two straight weeks to Memphis, in the final regular season game and in the conference championship game. However, for the second straight year, Cincinnati won its bowl game over an ACC team, crushing Boston College 38-6 in the Birmingham Bowl. The Bearcats opened the 2020 season ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and at 7-0 are up to No. 7 as Cincinnati begins a three-game road stretch that will determine the Bearcats' conference, bowl and even potential playoff fate. It starts with Saturday's game in Orlando against unranked but dangerous 5-2 UCF. Josh Heupel was named head coach of the UCF Knights on December 5, 2017, replacing the departing Scott Frost, who had led UCF to a perfect 13-0 season in 2017. Heupel continued the 'magic' in 2018, as UCF took a 12-0 record (AND a 25-game winning streak) into its Sugar Bowl game with LSU, where the Tigers snapped that win streak with a 40-32 victory (coming out party for Joe Burrow). UF followed with a 10-3 season in 2019 but sits a more modest 5-2 entering this game. Cincy routed Austin Peay 55-20 to open the season and then had comfortable but routine wins over Army (24-10) and South Florida (28-7) in the second and third games of the season. However, the Bearcats have stepped up the pace by averaging a scoring margin of 46.0-12.5 PPG in wins over SMU, Memphis, Houston and East Carolina. QB Desmond Ridder has posted two triple-digit rushing games in running for 398 yards and nine TDs in that four-game span and completed 71.4 percent of his 105 pass attempts for 886 yards and eight TDs against only two INTs. He's completing 66.7% on the season for 1,483 yards with 14 TDs and six INTs, while ranking second on the team with 469 rushing yards (8.8 YPC and nine TDs). RB has 563 yards on 5.2 YPC with seven TDs, as Cincy averages 247.1 YPG on the ground on 6.5 YPC with 24 TDs. In allowing 12.4 PPG, Cincy ranks third in the nation for fewest points allowed. UCF opened 2-0 but then lost back-to-back games to Tulsa and Memphis. UCF led Tulsa 16-0 but lost 34-26 (Tulsa's won FOUR times this season when trailing by 14-plus points!) and let a 49-37 lead in the mid-fourth quarter slip away in a 50-49 loss to Memphis. UCF has rebounded to win THREE in a row, averaging 44.3 PPG. QB Gabriel is completing 63.3% for 2,774 yards with 23 TDs and just two INTs, while RBs Anderson (563 yards on 5.8 YPC and four TDs) and McCrae (532 yards on 5.4 YPC with seven TDs) lead a running game averaging 222.3 YPG. Williams (53 catches / 15.0 YPC / 8 TDs) and Robinson (41 catches / 20.0 YPC / 4 TDs) are both dangerous receivers. However, in allowing 28.7 PPG, the UCF defense is allowing more than TWICE as many PPG than Cincy's D. "It's going to be huge," Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell said. "We're going to find out what we're really made of. ... That is going to be quite a stretch with the bullseye on our back and a lot of things that we want to be able to do. You know we've got to kind of focus in and be hungry and be humble in what we're doing and find a way to continue to grow." This will SURE be a test for the Bearcats, as UCF takes the field with an offense averaging 44.0 PPG on 619.1 YPG (No. 1 in the nation) plus has won 23 of its last 24 home games! What's more, UCF has a score to settle from last season's 27-24 loss at Cincinnati, when the Bearcats broke UCF's 19-game AAC winning streak. Now it's UCF's turn to pull the upset. Book it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-21-20 | Georgia Southern v. Army -3.5 | Top | 27-28 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Army at 12:00 ET. Chad Lunsford served as interim coach at Georgia Southern for the second half of the 2017 season following the firing and departure of Tyson Summers. The team finished that season 2-4 but he was awarded the head coaching gig on November 27, 2017. 10-3 and 7-6 seasons followed (including two bowl berths) and here in 2020 his Eagles are 6-2, including 4-2 in the SBC (third in the East behind 5-0 Coastal Carolina and 4-0 Appalachian St). Georgia Southern steps out of conference play on Saturday to visit West Point for a game with Army. Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, led the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018. However, 2019 was a HUGE disappointment for the Cadets of West Point. Army opened last season with a 'shaky' 14-7 win over Rice (as 23.5 favorites), extending its winning streak to 10 in a row. That streak was snapped the next week at Michigan but a 24-21 loss in OT at The "Big House" was hardly cause for concern. Army would win its next two games over UTSA (31-21) and Morgan St (52-21) but then the 'wheels came off.' Army would lose SEVEN of its final nine games, beating only sad-sack UMass (1-11 in 2019) and VMI, an FCS school. A crushing 31-7 to Navy was a fitting end to a dismal season. The 2020seaason has been a nice bounce-back, as Army enters this contest 6-2. Georgia Southern comes into this contest on a THREE-game winning streak after a 40-38 home win over Texas State last Saturday. QB Shai Werts leads an offense that depends on its running game, which ranks 5th in the nation in averaging 275.8 YPG on the ground while averaging 5.5 YPC. Werts completes a modest 58.9% for 789 yards with five TDs and six INTs. However, he's second on the team with 605 rushing yards on 5.4 YPC with six TDs. Four RBs have 300-plus rushing yards, led by JD King's 625 yards (5.4 YPC) and five TDs. The defense has been strong all season, as despite allowing 38 points to a 1-9 Texas St team in its last game, Georgia Southern is holding its opponents to a modest 21.8 PPG. Army has SEVEN players with 200-plus rushing yards, led by RB Robinson's 347 yards on 8.1 YPC. RBs Buchanan and Adkins plus QB Anderson all have four rushing TDs, as Army ranks second in the nation with 303.4 YPG on the ground (on 5.3 YPC) with 27 rushing TDs. Army QBs have attempted just 40 passes in EIGHT games. Speaking of defense, Army is allowing its opponents just 15.0 PPG. Army is coming off a bad loss at Tulane (38-12) but in fairness, the Black Knights hadn't played in THREE weeks prior to that contest. Speaking of recent games, how does one explain away Georgia Southern's two-point win at home over a 1-9 Texas St team? Georgia Southern's lone road win this year came 35-30 at UL-Monroe, which is just 2-8 on the season. By the way, Army routed UL-Monroe at home back on Sep 12, 37-7 (outgained the Warhawks 468-200 in total yards). It's true that Ga Southern QB Werts give the Eagles a more-balanced attack but in the end, this game will be decided by the competing option attacks. The Eagles top runner (JD King) has been lost to an ACL injury and note that the ONLY two times Army has passed more than 10 times in a game, it has lost! One of those losses came at now-No. 7 Cincinnati which is 7-0. The Cadets trailed just 17-10 in that game on the road midway through the fourth quarter and eventually lost just 24-10. Army's schedule in 2020 can be questioned by the Blacks Knights are 5-0 SU at home this season, extending their record at home to 21-2 SU since the start of the 2017 season. Stealing a chant from the Army/Navy rivalry, "Go Army! Beat Georgia Southern!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-20-20 | Purdue v. Minnesota +3 | Top | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 49 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider Game of the Month is on Minnesota at 7:30 ET. PJ Fleck 'rowed the boat' at Western Michigan back in 2016, leading the Broncos to a 13-1 season. He used that as a 'launching pad' to get the Minnesota job and in his third season at the school, led the Gophers to an 11-win season (1st since 1904), including that impressive win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. However, so far in 2020, Fleck's long-time motto has 'run aground!' The Gophers opened 0-2 in losing 49-24 to Michigan and Maryland 45-44 on a missed extra-point in OT but rebounded with a 41-14 home win over Illinois. However, the not-so Golden Gophers followed up their first win of the year with a real clunker in a 35-7 home loss to Iowa last Saturday. Minnesota desperately needs a win here at home on Friday, when 2-1 Purdue visits Minneapolis. Jeff Brohm had a strong three-year run as Western Kentucky's head coach (2014-16), going 30-10 overall, before accepting the Purdue job. He led the Boilermakers to bowl berths in his first two seasons (2017 and 2018) but Purdue was just 13-13 in those two years. A 4-8 season followed in 2019 and after opening 2-0 in 2020, the Boilermakers lost their showdown with Northwestern last Saturday (both schools entered unbeaten), 27-20 at home. The Boilermakers are still hoping that standout WR Rondale Moore will return to provide Purdue's offense with a spark. Moore was sensational as a freshman in 2018 (114 catches for 1,258 yards with 21 TDs) and was off to another great start in 2019, when he was lost for the season in Purdue's fourth game. He's missed the first three games due to a lower-body injury. QB Aidan O'Connell (64.7% for 916 yards with 7 TDs and 2 INTs) threw for 263 yards and two TDs against Northwestern, while RB Zander Horvath caught nine passes for 100 yards. However, Horvath (252 rushing yards on 4.8 YPC) was held to just 21 yards, after topping 100 yards in wins over Iowa and Illinois. Purdue's ground game managed just TWO yards on 17 attempts! Without Moore, Bell (86 catches with 7 TDs in 2019) leads with 31 catches and four TDs grabs. Minnesota's leading rusher Smith (1,163 yards / 5.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and record-setting WR Tyler Johnson (86 catches / 1,318 yards / 13 TDs) both moved on but QB Tanner Morgan returned, after throwing 30 TD passes last season (against only seven INTs). However, Morgan is off to a VERY slow start (57.5% / 769 yards / 4 TDs and 4 INTs). There is good news on offense for Minnesota, RB Mohammad Ibrahim has returned to his freshman form (1,160 yards on 5.7 YPC with nine TDs), after being injured for part of last season (he still ran for 604 yards on 5.3 YPC and seven TDs). Ibrahim has run for 140-plus yards in all four games, topping 200 yards, twice. He has 715 yards on the season, averaging 5.5 YPC with 10 TDs. WR Bateman is no Johnson but he does have 32 catches. Minnesota's D returned just four starters and has allowed 43.0 PPG in its three losses. It's a 180-degree turnaround from last year for Minnesota in 2020, after the Golden Gophers won 11 games in 2019, winning close games because the team frequently made big plays and didn't make mistakes. That same attention to detail has been missing in 2020. Minnesota plays ranked schools Wisconsin (10) and Northwestern (19) the next two weeks, then ends the season at Nebraska, needing to win THREE of four to finish at .500. Is that a 'bridge too far?' Probably, but beating Purdue here at home is NOT! Minnesota has won SIX of its last seven meetings with Purdue and the last time the Golden Gophers hosted the Boilermakers (2018), they won 41-10, the largest margin of victory in this series since 1985. Home dog 'barks VERY LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 31 h 23 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET. The NFC West has a three-way tie at the top between the Cards, Rams and Seahawks (all are 6-3).The Cards and Seahawks square off in Seattle and barring a tie, one will move to 7-3. The Rams play Monday night in Tampa against the Bucs, making their path to 7-3 a real test. The Cardinals overcame a 10-point fourth quarter deficit back in Week 7 in a SNF matchup at home, to edge the Seahawks 37-34 on a Zane Gonzalez 48-yard FG with 15 seconds remaining in OT (note: Gonzalez had previously kicked a 44-yarder as time expired in regulation). The loss was Seattle's first of the season (after opening 5-0) and the Seahawks have gone to drop two of their next three games, as well. Arizona's win over Seattle was the team's THIRD in a row and after a bye in Week 8, the Cards have lost a close one (34-31 to Miami) and won a close one (32-30 over Buffalo), all at home. I'm sure ALL are aware that Arizona's win over Buffalo belongs in the 'miracle' category and the Cards head to Seattle off THREE straight games (2-1) decided by three, three and two points. QB Kyler Murray is having a superb 'sophomore' season, completing 68.2% for 2,375 yards with 17 TDs and eight INTs. He's also the Cards' leading rusher with 604 yards on 6.9 YPC with 10 rushing TDs! Kenyon Drake (612 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs) has developed into a dependable RB and the Cards have now edged ahead of the Ravens to own the NFL's top rushing offense at 168.9 YPG (5.3 YPC). Fitzgerald is heading to the HOF but while he has 35 catches, he's averaging only 7.8 YPC and has yet to snare a TD pass. Hopkins caught the game-winner against the Bills and leads the team with 67 receptions (four TDs). Fellow WR Kirk has a modest 27 catches but leads the team with six TD grabs. Arizona's defense allowed just 18.7 PPG through its first six games but enters this contest having allowed 30-plus points in each of its last three (32.7 per). Defense has been a season-long problem for Seattle, as it is allowing a league-high 448.3 YPG and almost 30 PPG (29.6). However, led by Russell Wilson's MVP-caliber play (19 TD passes and just three INTs), Seattle got off to a 5-0 start. However, in Seattle's recent 1-3 slide, Wilson had four TDs and zero INTs in Seattle lone win in that span, while passing for only five TDs against seven INTs in the three losses. He didn't throw a TD pass in last week's loss at the Rams (had two INTs), just the second time since the start of the 2019 season in which he went without a TD pass in a game (the other time was also against the Rams, in a 28-12 road loss last season). However, he is completing 69.8% for 2,789 yards with 28 TDs and 10 INTs on the season (110.5 QB rating). Wilson is also the team's leading rusher (325 yards on 7.2 YPC) but the Seahawks have been without their top two RBs, Chris Carson (mid-foot sprain) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring), for the past three games. Carson remains out but Hyde has returned to practice on a limited basis. Wilson has a 'dynamic duo' in WRs Lockett (58 catches with six TDs) and Metcalf (45 catches on 18.1 YPC with eight TDs). The Cards are on the road for the first time since Week 6 (three home games and a bye week), while this marks Seattle's ONLY home game in a four-week span. What's more, after leading the division since Week 1, Seattle would fall from atop it for the first time this season with a loss. I realize Seattle has RB issues (it has all season) but I'm not sure why Seattle is favored here at home, by pretty much the same as it was in Arizona! A win keeps Seattle atop the NFC West (all by itself if Tampa Bay can beat the Rams) plus Seattle's next four opponents (Philadelphia, the NYG, the NYJ and Washington) have a combined 8-28-1 record in 2020. CenturyLink Stadium doesn't offer the same kind of home field edge it did in 'normal' times but Seattle is still a perfect 4-0 at home in 2020, averaging 34.3 PPG. That's almost the exact point total the Cards' defense has allowed (see above) in its last three games. Don't be fooled by Arizona's 3-1 road record in 2020, as its opponents have been San Francisco, Carolina, the NY Jets and Dallas, teams with a combined record of 9-29! Lay the 'cheap' price! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-19-20 | Tulane +7 v. Tulsa | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 59 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* AAC Game of the Year is on Tulane at 7:30 ET. Willie Fritz arrived in New Orleans to take over at Tulane for the 2016 season. The Green Wave would go 4-8 and 5-7 in his first two seasons but they would then go 6-6 and 6-6 in 2018 and 2019's regular season, capping each one off with a bowl win. It marked the first time Tulane had posted back-to-back winning seasons in 20 years. Tulane opened by eking out a 27-24 win at South Alabama but then took a 24-0 lead over Navy at the half, only to lose 27-24. The Green Wave rebounded with a 66-24 rout of Southern Miss but then lost THREE in a row (Houston, SMU and UCF), while allowing 45.7 PPG. With season 'heading south,' Tulane has rebounded with THREE straight wins, scoring exactly 38 points in each contest. Tulane now heads to Tulsa on Thursday night to face a 4-1 Tulsa team (4-0 in AAC), which just entered the AP poll this past Sunday at No. 25. Philip Montgomery got his first head coaching gig at Tulsa in 2015. He led the Golden Hurricane to bowls those first two seasons, including to a 1-3 season in 2016. However, THREE straight losing seasons followed (9-27 overall). Tulsa opened the current season with a competitive 16-7 loss at then-No. 11 Oklahoma St. Tulsa has ripped off FOUR straight wins since. Kudos to the Golden Hurricane who fell behind the then-No. 19 Mustangs 21-0 last Saturday, before outscoring them 28-3 the rest of the way. So what else is new? Tulsa trailed 16-2 at UCF on Oct 3 but came back to win 31-26 and on Oct 30 at home, trailed East Carolina 17-3 before winning 34-30. Nothing to it! The Green Wave's surge has coincided with the maturation of freshman QB Michael Pratt, who has 14 TDs and just four INTs in seven starts (he also has five rushing TDs). He has brought balance to an offense that features an outstanding running game, averaging 224.1 YPG on 5.3 YPC with a whopping 26 TDs. Four RBs contribute, led by Huderson (548 yards on 6.6 YPC) and Carroll (542 yards on 5.6 YPC with 10 TDs). Tulsa's "comeback kids" are led by QB Zach Smith (61.5% with 10 TDs and 6 INTs) and a running game averaging 161.8 YPG on 4.1 YPC with eight TDs. Tulsa's defense has been VERY good, allowing just 21.8 PPG. This is a tough spot for Tulsa, its win over SMU came after a stretch in which the Golden Hurricane had played just two games in 41 days, as Tulsa has had three weekends in which a game was postponed due to COVID-19 issues. This week, the Golden Hurricane return to action just FIVE days after the SMU win and will be playing as a ranked team for the first time since 2010. Tulane comes in on a roll and has beaten Tulsa each of the last three meetings. Take the points but expect an OUTRIGHT win by Tulane. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan | Top | 52-44 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* MAC Attack-Part 3 is on Central Michigan at 7:00 ET. Western Michigan's Tim Lester has had BIG shoes to fill, taking over in 2017, after PJ Fleck led the Broncos to a 13-1 season (and a Cotton Bowl bid vs Wisconsin) in 2016. His first team went 6-6 (no bowl) but the Broncos have gone to a bowl each of the last two seasons, although they've lost both, finishing 7-6 each season. Jim McElwain made a name for himself at Colorado St, which got him the head coaching gig at Florida in 2015. The Gators went 10-4 and 9-4 in his first two seasons but he had problems with "powers that be" and was let go after a 3-4 start in 2017. He resurfaced at Central Michigan in 2019, taking over a team that went 1-11 in 2018. Things couldn't have gone much better in his first season, as the Chippewas won the MAC West (6-2) and finished the season 8-6 overall, although they lost the MAC title game 26-21 to Miami-Ohio and their bowl game 48-11 to SD State. Western Michigan and Central Michigan have both opened 2-0 and meet Wednesday in Mount Pleasant. The winner puts itself in PRIME position to win the MAC West. The MAC is only playing SIX league games, meaning the team which comes out of the game at 3-0 will effectively own a TWO-game lead, considering it will also have the tiebreaker. Kaleb Eleby (redshirted last season) but has played well at QB for WMU, completing 71.1% for 546 yards with six TDs and zero INTs. The running game averages 185.5 YPG on 5.5 YPC, led by Sean Tyler's 168 yards on 8.0 YPC with a TD. He also has 10 catches, which ties WR D’Wayne Eskridge for the team lead. Eskridge is averaging 24.5 YPC with TDs, while fellow WRs Moore ( six catches / 19.7 YPC / one TD) and Hall (three catches / 29.7 YPC / two TDs) have made "big plays." The offense has scored 99 points in its first two games and somehow scored two TDs in the final 45 seconds of WMU's 41-38 win over Toledo last Wednesday (had to see it to believe it!). CMU quarterback David Moore's status remains uncertain as a result of an NCAA suspension but Daniel Richardson has started the first two games and has been more than adequate (60% for 439 yards / 3 TDs / 1 INT). However, there's potential for even more big plays thanks to a strong receiving corps. Dallas Dixon averages 18.8 YPC over six catches, while Kalil Pimpleton (nine), JaCorey Sullivan (five) and Tyrone Scott (four) rounding out the top contributors. The running game is averaging 210.5 YPC on 4.7 YPC, led by Lewis (171 yards / 3.9 YPC / 3 TDs) and Nichols (122 yards / 5.8 YPC / one TD). The defense is the best in the MAC, holding opponents to 18.5 PPG on 294.5 YPG. Central Michigan was 6-0 SU & ATS at home last season and its win and cover at home over Ohio U in the team's season opener gives them a 7-0 SU & ATS run at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. Meanwhile, WMU was 1-6 SU away from home in 2019 (counts bowl loss) and a 58-13 win at Akron on Nov 4 hardly counts (Zips are on a 19-game slide, going 4-15 ATS)! A good defense usually beats a good offense plus remember, CMU is averaging 35.5 PPG, themselves. The fact that the Broncos are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win has me saying, why NOT play the Chippewas? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3.5 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -114 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Magic play (NFC North Game of the Month) is on the Chi Bears at 8:15 ET. Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikings to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. A non-postseason year in 2020 will NOT be acceptable but the Vikings will be hard-pressed to avoid that from happening. The Chicago Bears hired John Fox as head coach in 2015 and he had three straight losing seasons, going 3-13 in 2016 and 5-11 in 2017. That was enough and the Bears hired Mike Nagy on January 7, 2018, Nagy was one of six candidates for the Bears' job and sure seemed like the 'right choice,' as Chicago went 12-4 in his first season. The Bears fell to 8-8 last season but surprised by opening 3-0 and 5-1. However, they enter this contest off THREE straight losses. The Vikings were manhandled by the Packers in Week 1 and after a 40-23 loss Week 6 to Atlanta, stood 1-5. However, the team's Week 7 bye seems to have rejuvenated the team, as Minnesota won 28-22 at Green Bay in Week 8 and then beat Detroit 34-20 at home in Week 9. QB Kirk Cousins connected on 13 of his 20 pass attempts for 220 yards and 3 TDs in the win over the Lions, while RB Dalvin Cook ran for 206 yards on just 22 carries with two TDs. Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. He's has NOT been that good this year, completing 65.6 percent for 1.855 yards. He has 15 TDs but 10 INTs, FOUR more than he had all last season. Dalvin Cook (858 yards on 6.0 YPC with 12 TDs), when healthy, is as good as any RB in the NFL. Cook has run for 369 yards (7.1 YC) for five TDs (plus one TD catch) in Minnesota's back-to-back wins. More on Cousins, Cook and Minnesota's defense in my 'closing argument.' The Bears have used two QBs this season but with Trubisky sidelined with a shoulder injury, Foles is the current 'man.' He blows hot-and-cold but with RB Montgomery (472 yards) out with a concussion, he's thrown 93 passes the last two games (64 completions / 68.9%) for 607 yards with four TDs and just one INT. Chicago's best receiver, Allen Robinson (57 catches with three TDs) is listed as questionable but is expected to play. Fellow WRs Mooney and Miller have combined for 63 catches and four TDs, while TE Jimmy Graham looks 'young' again, with 35 catches and five TDs (had just 38 catches with Green Bay all of last season). In closing, let's look defense, first. The Vikings are allowing 29.2 PPG on 417.9 YPG, while Chicago allows 21.1 PPG on 335.1 YPG. Chicago head coach Mike Nagy is a perfect 4-0 SU vs Minnesota in his first two seasons (1st of two meetings this season, tonight) and Kirk Cousins is 0-3 in three meetings with the Bears as a Viking (sat out meaningless Week 17 game in 2019), with Minnesota averaging a WOEFUL 12.0 PPG in those contests. There is no denying how good Cook can be but in Cousins' three losses vs the Bears, Cook has averaged a miniscule 28.7 YPG on the ground. Two last factoids. Cousins is 0-9 in his career on Monday nights, which is the worst record of any QB in NFL history! If that's not enough, how about the fact that Minnesota is a dismal 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games at Soldier Field? Not sure why there has been so much 'play' on Minnesota but I'm taking the home dog. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-15-20 | Seahawks v. Rams -1 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 95 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* NFC West Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET. The NFC West owns a collective 20-13 (.606) record, second to only the AFC North's mark of 21-10-1, plus it has the best point differential of any division at plus-144 (all four teams are in the plus category). The Los Angeles Rams spent last week on a bye and actually gained ground, as Seattle, Arizona, and San Francisco all lost. "It was a pretty solid bye week," Rams WR Cooper Kupp said. "They did us some favors there." The 5-3 Rams are within a game of the first-place Seahawks (6-2) as the teams get set to meet Sunday at SoFi Stadium. Seattle opened the season 5-0 but has lost TWO of its last three, with Russell Wilson showing a 'human' side. He's completing 71.0% on the season for 2,541 yards for 2,818 yards with 28 TDs and 8 INTs (117.1 QB rating) but FIVE of his eight INTs on the season have come in the team's two losses. Seattle's run game (without Russell's 265 yards on 7.2 YPC) is very mediocre and what's more, the Seahawks have been without RBs Chris Carson (mid-foot sprain) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring) each of the past two weeks and it's uncertain if they'll return for this one. Then there is Seattle's defense, which has been a HUGE concern all season. Seattle ranks dead-last in allowing 455.8 YPG and is 30th of 32 teams in points allowed at 30.4 per game. LA's Jared Goff is not having a great season but still completes 65.5% for 2,145 yards with 13 TDs and six INTs. He's got an excellent WR duo in Kupp (48 catches) and Woods (37 catches) plus a pair of TEs who have each caught 20 passes and combined for four TD grabs. The departure of RB Todd Gurley has not hurt a bit as in fact, the Rams averaged just 93.7 YPG rushing on 3.7 YPC last season, while this year's "RB by Committee" concept has produced 137.8 YPG on 4.4 YPC. Then there is the LA defense, which is allowing just 291.9 YPG (2nd-best) and more importantly, only 19.0 PPG (also 2nd-best)! Seattle returns from a performance at Buffalo (allowed John Allen to throw for 415 yards and three TDs) and finds themselves on the road again here. This well-rested Rams team is on a 9-3-1 ATS run after a bye and is 3-0 at home in 2020, allowing just 12.0 PPG. Rams move into a first-place tie with the Seahawks after with win (will the Cards make it a three-way tie?). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-15-20 | Bills v. Cardinals -1 | 30-32 | Win | 100 | 95 h 34 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:05 ET. Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years that ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, it seemed like the perfect opportunity for someone other than the Patriots to win the AFC East. Why not the Bills? Buffalo opened 4-0 but then lost B2B games at Tennessee and home to KC but enters Sunday's game off THREE straight wins, giving them a 7-2 record. Kliff Kingsbury coached six seasons at Texas Tech and was only 35-40 with three bowl appearances (Tech was 1-2). However, he found two NFL suitors in the Jets and Cards, choosing Arizona in January of 2019. His 'rookie' season did not go well, as the Cards finished 5-10-1. However, while Arizona saw its three-game winning streak end last Sunday against Miami, the Cards are 5-3 (tied with the Rams), just one game back of the 6-2 Seahawks. Buffalo QB Josh Allen made great strides in his second season (2019) and began the current season as just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. He's been terrific so far, completing 68.9% for 2,587 yards with 19 TDs and just five INTs, while adding 241 rushing yards with five TDs. However, even with his help, the Bills are averaging only 100.3 YPG rushing on 3.9 YPC. The addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE, as he leads the team AND the NFL with 63 catches AND 813 receiving yards (three TDs). Fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 44 through nine games (on pace for 78). Buffalo's defense allowed just 16.2 PPG last season (2nd to only New England) on 298.3 YPG (3rd) but this season is allowing 25.9 PPG (almost 10 points higher), on 36.59 YPG (about 67 yards more per game). Arizona's defense is playing slightly better than Buffalo's, allowing 22,5 PPG on 370.1 YPG but it's unlikely that defense will win this one. Former Heisman winner Kyler Murray was solid as a rookie and has improved noticeably in 2020. He's completing 68.1% for 2,130 yards with 16 TDs and seven INTs. He's Arizona's leading rusher with 543 yards (7.1 YPC) and eight TDs. Drake (512 yards / 4.3 YPC / 4 TDs) has become a solid RB, allowing Arizona to average 162.9 YPG (2nd to Baltimore) on 5.2 YPC. Hopkins has 60 catches (tied for 2nd-most behind Diggs) and fellow WR Kirk has 23 catches but six TDs (17 catches and five TDs in his last four games). Allen and Murray have quickly established themselves as two of the most dynamic young QBs in the NFL and both are coming off fabulous games, as Allen threw for 415 yards with four TDs (three passing) and Murray had 283 passing yards with three TDs and no INTs (150.5 QB rating was a career-best), while adding 106 rushing yards (9.6 YPC) and a fourth TD. As old friend Nick Bakay likes to say, "Advantage push!" Why I like Arizona here is that the Cards are off a disappointing three-point home loss to Miami (a game the team could have EASILY won), while the Bills are traveling off not only last week's big win over Seattle but the week before, the Bills edged the Pats 24-21, ending a SEVEN-game losing streak to their AFC East tormentors! Nick's a Buffalo guy but sorry, the Cards "get the cash!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-15-20 | Broncos v. Raiders -3.5 | Top | 12-37 | Win | 100 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET The Raiders relocated to Las Vegas for the 2020 season, as Jon Gruden's second stint with the team entered its third season. The Raiders went 4-12 in Year One and then 7-9 last season. Will the third time be the charm? The now Las Vegas Raiders begin the second half of their season Sunday afternoon against the visiting Denver Broncos off back-to-back victories and at 5-3, are in the thick of the AFC wild card play 'picture' (catching 8-1 KC in the AFC West is a bit of a stretch). Denver opened the current season off THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972 and Drew Lock got the start in Week 1, giving Denver's its 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning led the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win. He has missed some time earlier but he has been 'at the controls' the last four games. Denver comes in off Denver a 34-27 loss at Atlanta, after the Broncos had beaten the Chargers the previous week 34-30, scoring the winning TD with 0:00 on the clock. The week before that, the Broncos lost 43-16 to the Chiefs. Doing some quick math, the Denver D has allowed 35.7 PPG over its last three games. While Lock has had his moments, he's completing a poor 56.5% on the season for 1,240 yards with six TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 73.6). The Broncos expected much more from FA Melvin Gordon but he's got just 393 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) with four TDS. Denver is averaging a modest 116.3 YPG on the ground and its passing game is inconsistent, at best. TE Fant leads with 32 catches, while WRs Jeudy (30 catches / 16.1 YPC / 2 TDs) and Patrick (27 catches / 14.2 YPC / 3 TDs) are not exactly a dynamic duo. Jeudy (shoulder) didn't practice much this week and is questionable. More bad news came to a defense already struggling in that DE Shelby Harris, who sat out the loss to the Falcons while in self-quarantine following close contact with someone who had contracted COVID-19, tested positive for the disease on Wednesday morning and will not play Sunday. The struggling Denver defense will have to find a way to slow down Las Vegas QB Derek Carr, who is having a "career season." He's completing 69.8% for 2,002 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs (110.0 QB rating). His favorite targets are TE Waller (50 catches / 4 TDs) and WR Renfro (27 catches / 2 TDs). WR Agholor may have just 17 catches but he's averaging 20.4 YPC and has a team-high five TD receptions. The Raiders OL has been devastated by injuries but Carr just keeps getting the job done plus 2nd-year RB Jacobs has followed an excellent rookie season (1,150 yards and 7 TDs), by rushing for 588 yards with six TDs plus had added 26 catches (had only 20 all last season). The recent play of the Denver defense (see above) makes me believe Carr and Co. should be in complete control. The fact that the Raiders have lost EACH of their last two home games makes me like them even more. Note that those two losses came against the 7-2 Buffalo Bills and the 6-3 Tampa Bay 'Bradys.' Denver is nowhere near in the class of those two teams. Want more? The home team is on a perfect 8-0 SU run (6-2 ATS) in this series plus the Broncos are on an 8-19-1 ATS run vs division opponents. C'mon, the sad-sack Falcons (just 2-6 at the time) closed as 4 1/2-point home favorites over the Broncos last Sunday. This price is 'CHEAP!' Lay it. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 44 | Top | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* "Featured" Sunday Total is on Phi/NYG Over at 1:00 ET. It's Week 10 and the 2-7 Giants can actually say with a straight face, if we win on Sunday, we are "right in the hunt" for the division title. It's true, thanks to the NFC East being arguably the worst in NFL history here in 2020. The 3-4-1 Eagles are in first place, followed by 2-6 Washington and then the 2-7 Cowboys and Cowboys. These teams met back on Oct 22 in Philadelphia (Week 7), with New York controlling most of the first 3 1/2 quarters, leading 21-10 with less than five minutes left. However, Carson Wentz threw 3- and 18-yard TD passes to 'escape' with a 22-21 win. Philly QB Wentz entered this season having thrown EXACTLY seven INTs in each of the last THREE seasons, while passing for 81 TD passes. However, Wentz has really struggled in 2020, completing only 58.4% for 1,883 yards with as many INTs (12) as TDs (12), His 12 INTs are an NFL-high and he's also lost FOUR fumbles. His QB rating is just 73.2, after posting ratings of 101.9, 102.2 and 93.1 the last three years. Philly's many injuries haven't helped. TE Ertz and WR Jackson remain on IR but after a bye week,RB Miles Sanders and WR Alshon Jeffery are expected back. Miles led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving) and has run for 434 yards (6.1 YPC) with three TDs in five games this season. Philly's defense is no better than average, allowing 340.1 PPG (10th) but 25.6 PPG (17th). Speaking of QBs that make mistakes, let me submit the name of Daniel Jones. He's completing 62.4% for 1,878 yards with eight TDs and nine INTs. I will add that he's also New York's leading rusher, adding 320 yards on 8.0 YPC. He WAS turnover free in New York's win last Sunday (more later) but even with that mistake-free game, the second-year QB has committed a whopping 36 turnovers in 21 career starts. The only NFL quarterback with a worse ratio to start his career was Ryan Leaf (OUCH!). With Barkley done for the season, the New York running game is non-existent. Subtract Jones' totals and New York's RBs are averaging 70.4 YPG on 3.7 YPC. TE Engram leads with 36 catches, followed by WR Slayton (33 catches / 14.9 YPC / 3 TDs). It's possible we'll see more of Golden Tate in this game. Tate signed a four-year, $37 million deal last year (he had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons from 2014-17) in an attempt to fill the void created by the trade of Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns. However, he's been in 'the dog house' in 2020, playing just over 50% of the offensive snaps the past few weeks prior to his benching. Tate has 22 catches on 29 targets for 226 yards with two TDs this season in a reduced role. He apologized earlier this week so maybe...The New York defense is similar to that of Philadelphia's, allowing 24.3 PPG on 360.0 YPG. Philly's Week 7 22-21 win over the Giants gave the Eagles SEVEN straight victories over their NFC East rivals but note that the Giants have covered in FIVE of those contests. The Giants lost that Thursday night game at Philly by allowing two TDs in the final 4:38. The Giants led 20-3 at Washington last Sunday but needed TWO fourth-quarter interceptions to hold on for a 23-20 win. That said, the Giants enter this contest having covered FIVE of their last six, while averaging 24.2 PPG in their last five. Neither defense is any better than average and I look for both teams to again score 20 points and for the winner to maybe get into the 30s. Go OVER! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants +4 | Top | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 7 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. It's Week 10 and the 2-7 Giants can actually say with a straight face, if we win on Sunday, we are "right in the hunt" for the division title. It's true, thanks to the NFC East being arguably the worst in NFL history here in 2020. The 3-4-1 Eagles are in first place, followed by 2-6 Washington and then the 2-7 Cowboys and Cowboys. These teams met back on Oct 22 in Philadelphia (Week 7), with New York controlling most of the first 3 1/2 quarters, leading 21-10 with less than five minutes left. However, Carson Wentz threw 3- and 18-yard TD passes to 'escape' with a 22-21 win. Philly QB Wentz entered this season having thrown EXACTLY seven INTs in each of the last THREE seasons, while passing for 81 TD passes. However, Wentz has really struggled in 2020, completing only 58.4% for 1,883 yards with as many INTs (12) as TDs (12), His 12 INTs are an NFL-high and he's also lost FOUR fumbles. His QB rating is just 73.2, after posting ratings of 101.9, 102.2 and 93.1 the last three years. Philly's many injuries haven't helped. TE Ertz and WR Jackson remain on IR but after a bye week, RB Miles Sanders and WR Alshon Jeffery are expected back. Miles led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving) and has run for 434 yards (6.1 YPC) with three TDs in five games this season. Philly's defense is no better than average, allowing 340.1 PPG (10th) but 25.6 PPG (17th). Speaking of QBs that make mistakes, let me submit the name of Daniel Jones. He's completing 62.4% for 1,878 yards with eight TDs and nine INTs. I will add that he's also New York's leading rusher, adding 320 yards on 8.0 YPC. He WAS turnover free in New York's win last Sunday (more later) but even with that mistake-free game, the second-year QB has committed a whopping 36 turnovers in 21 career starts. The only NFL quarterback with a worse ratio to start his career was Ryan Leaf (OUCH!). With Barkley done for the season, the New York running game is non-existent. Subtract Jones' totals and New York's RBs are averaging 70.4 YPG on 3.7 YPC. TE Engram leads with 36 catches, followed by WR Slayton (33 catches / 14.9 YPC / 3 TDs). It's possible we'll see more of Golden Tate in this game. Tate signed a four-year, $37 million deal last year (he had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons from 2014-17) in an attempt to fill the void created by the trade of Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns. However, he's been in 'the dog house' in 2020, playing just over 50% of the offensive snaps the past few weeks prior to his benching. Tate has 22 catches on 29 targets for 226 yards with two TDs this season in a reduced role. He apologized earlier this week so maybe...The New York defense is similar to that of Philadelphia's, allowing 24.3 PPG on 360.0 YPG. Philly's Week 7 22-21 win over the Giants gave the Eagles SEVEN straight victories over their NFC East rivals but note that the Giants have covered in FIVE of those contests. The Giants lost that Thursday night game at Philly by allowing two TDs in the final 4:38. The Giants led 20-3 at Washington last Sunday but needed TWO fourth-quarter interceptions to hold on for a 23-20 win. That said, the Giants enter this contest having covered FIVE of their last six, while averaging 24.2 PPG in their last five. I want the points but I'm calling for the OUTRIGHT win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-14-20 | Oregon State v. Washington OVER 51.5 | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 25 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Total of the Week is on Oregon St/Washington Over at 11:00 ET. The Pac-12 and the Big Ten Conference voted to postpone fall sports back in August but the Big Ten was first to reverse that decision, leaving the Pac 12 as the only Power Five conference still postponing. However, the Pac 12 announced on Sep 24 that it would return to the field with each school playing a conference-only seven-game schedule (championship game is scheduled for December 18). The conference finally began play last Saturday but unfortunately, two games were canceled because of COVID issues (Arizona at Utah and Washington at Cal). Four games went on as scheduled, including a rematch of one of the wildest games in the 2019 Pac-12 season. Washington St overcame an 11-point deficit at home in the final 2:10 to win 54-53 over Oregon St. The rematch went to Washington St again, as the Cougars beat the Beavers 38-28. The Beavers will travel to Seattle this Saturday to face Washington, which saw its long-delayed season opener called off, as contact-tracing protocols the city of Berkeley mandates forced Cal to cancel the game with the Huskies. Jonathan Smith was a four-year starter for the Beavers at QB and he's now Oregon St's head coach, beginning his third season. His first ended with a 2-10 record but in 2019, a victory in the above-mentioned game with Washington St would have given OSU a 6-6 record, with the Beavers becoming bowl-eligible. Instead, the Beavers finished 5-7. Oregon State has a new QB this season, as Jake Luton, who passed for 2,714 yards and 28 touchdowns against just three interceptions in 2019, is now with the NFL's Jacksonville Jaguars. Luton's backup a season ago, Tristan Gebbia, got the start last Saturday, passing for 329 yards and just one TD. However, he threw 48 times and was NEVER intercepted. RB Jefferson battled injuries last season but still ran for 685 yards on 4.8 YPC with eight TDs, after he ran for 1,380 yards as a freshman. He had 120 yards on 5.7 YPC and scored three TDs. Four players caught five passes or more. Defense remains an issue, as the Beavers allowed 38 points on 456 yards (team allowed 32.5 PPG on 445.7 YPG last season). Washington likely can't wait to finally play a game, as its originally scheduled season opener was a home game vs Michigan back on Sep 5. Jimmy Lake joined the Washington Huskies staff in 2014 as a defensive backs coach under head coach Chris Petersen. This was his second stint at the school after serving one year under Keith Gilbertson in 2004. In 2016, he was promoted to co-defensive coordinator. Petersen announced he would step down as Washington's head coach at the end of the 2019 season and Lake would be his successor. It became official on December 2, 2019. QB Jacob Eason (3,132 yards with 23 TDs and 8 INTs) and RB Ahmed (1,020 / 5.4 YPC / 11 TDs) both left early. Eason was drafted in the 4th round but Ahmed went undrafted. The Huskies will feature their third different opening-week starter in as many seasons. However, Lake has not declared a starter among the four competitors for the job: Jacob Sirmon, Dylan Morris, Ethan Garbers and Sacramento State transfer Kevin Thomson. With Ahmed gone, expect Newton to assume "featured" RB status. He gained 498 yards rushing last season, scoring 11 TDs (10 rushing). Washington's defense is always top-notch (has allowed less than 20.0 PPG in each of the last FIVE seasons) and that's unlikely to change much this season. Washington's offense has plenty of questions but I expect them to have little trouble against this Oregon St defense. Meanwhile, the Beavers' offense looked just fine last Saturday and with a game under its belt, should give Washington's defense all it can handle. Go OVER! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-14-20 | Wisconsin v. Michigan +4.5 | Top | 49-11 | Loss | -110 | 85 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Michigan at 7:30 ET. The Big Ten returned to play on Friday, Oct 23 as then-No. 14 hosted Illinois in the nation's oldest conference's first game of CFB 2020. Wisconsin expected RB Jonathan Taylor (2,003 rushing yards in 2019) to leave a year early for the NFL but head Paul Chryst couldn't have planned for the loss of QB Jack Coan (69.6% / 2,727 yards / 18 TDs and just five INTs in 2019) to a foot injury on Oct 10. That meant redshirt freshman Graham Mertz got the start. Not to worry, as Metz completed 20 of 21 passes for 248 yards with five TDs, as the Badgers rolled 45-7. Wisconsin heads to "The Big House" in Ann Arbor to play Michigan ranked 13th in the latest AP poll but because of a fairly significant COVID-19 outbreak (which included QB Mertz and head coach Chryst), Wisconsin will be playing just its second game of the season. As for Michigan, Jim Harbaugh's team is once again underachieving. The Wolverines ran all over Minnesota 49-24 in its season opener on Oct 24 (256 rushing yards on 8.3 YPC) but have since lost 27-24 at home to Michigan St (as a three-TD favorite) and then steamrolled 38-21 at Indiana last Saturday, losing to the Hoosiers for the FIRST time in 33 years! Let's start with Wisconsin. It was never a given that the Badgers would be able to play this game but it's on. However, the status of redshirt freshman QB Graham Mertz, who tested positive on Oct 24, is unclear. Head coach Paul Chryst, who tested positive on the same day, said the Badgers will measure the progress of Mertz all week. "Graham, the way that he is timing out (is) starting that process of coming back, his tests are all done. So I think he'll be able to have some practice. We'll see if it's enough practice time," Chryst said. "You don't know. Each guy's a little bit different how they handle all of it. We'll kind of see on him and a couple of other guys that were kind of in that early group of (positive tests)." Michigan broke in a new QB to start this season as well and Joe Milton shined in the team's season-opening win. He completed 15 of 22 for 225 yards with one TD and zero INTs, while adding 52 yards rushing and another TD. Yes, Michigan's dropped its last two games but DON'T blame Milton. He threw for 300 yards and ran for 59 more in the loss to MSU and while he did throw his first two INTs of the season at Indiana, he also passed for 344 yards and three TDs. Michigan's running game disappeared vs Indiana 13 yards on 18 attempts and its defense allowed Indiana to roll up 460 yards. Why Michigan here? First let me start with Wisconsin. No one knows for certain which players are ready and how much that they will be able to impact the contest. What's more, so what that Wisconsin rolled over Illinois 45-7? The Illini are 0-3, having allowed 39.0 PPG on 475.7 YPG. In fact, Illinois 'held' Wisconsin to 430 yards, which is the team's best defensive effort of the season. I'm on record as not liking or being very impressed with Harbaugh but the fact remains that the home team is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings of this series and Wisconsin has NOT won in Ann Arbor since 2010! Michigan is out of the AP top-25 for the first time since the end of the 2017 season and a HUGE understatement would be that the Wolverines (particularly Harbaugh) is DESPERATE for a win in this one. Getting points is a bonus. Go Big Blue! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-14-20 | TCU v. West Virginia -2.5 | Top | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 48 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET. TCU head coach Gary Patterson took over at TCU when Dennis Franchione left to take the Alabama job (that didn't go well but it's a story for another day) and in his 19 full seasons, he's led TCU to 15 winning ones and 16 bowls (10-6). TCU's 'glory years' were 2008-11, when the school went 45-5 over four seasons. TCU finished 7th, 6th, 2nd and 14th in the final AP rankings during that stretch (2010 team went 13-0, including a 21-18 Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin). TCU entered 2020 off a 7-6 record in 2018 and a 5-7 record in 2019. 3-3 TCU has just nine games on its current schedule, so the Horned Frogs will fail to reach eight wins for a third straight year. That hasn't happened since the 1998 team went 8-4 to end a drought of 14 seasons the school failed to reach eight wins (maybe the team gets a 'pass' this year, due to COVID-19). Neal Brown spent four years as the head coach at Troy. His first season saw his team go 4-8 but over the next three seasons the Trojans went 31-8 overall, including winning all THREE bowl appearances. He was announced as the 35th head football coach of West Va on January 5, 2019 and after a 5-7 first season, the Mountaineers are off to a 4-3 start in 2020. West Va lost all four Big 12 home games last season but the Mountaineers are 4-0 at home so far this season, including 3-0 in Big 12 play. QB Max Duggan battled a heart condition that led to him having a procedure back in mid-August to correct it. The Horned Frogs opened the season losing THREE of four but have won two in row, albeit over struggling programs Baylor and Texas Tech (a combined 2-9 this season). Duggan has been able to play all games so far, completing 65.2% for 1,113 yards with a modest five TDs but just two INTs. He's TCU's leading rusher (329 yards / 4.1 YPC / 6 TDs) and rushed for a career-high 154 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries in last Saturday's 34-18 win over Texas Tech. RB Barlow adds 291 yards on 5.8 YPC and three TDs, as the Horned Frogs are averaging 184.5 YPG on the ground. The Mountaineers are coming off a tough 17-13 loss at then-No. 22 Texas last Saturday. However, West Virginia nearly beat the Longhorns despite rushing for a season-low 43 yards. The Mountaineers average just 67.3 YPG on the ground while losing all THREE road contests but have averaged 218.3 YPG in going 4-0 at home. RB Leddie Brown has run for 741 yards on 5.3 YPC with nine TDs (more in a bit). QB Jarrett Doege has been pretty good, completing 65.2% for 2,007 yards with 11 TDs and only three INTs in 282 attempts. The defense has been strong all season, allowing 19.4 PPG. Here's the bottom line. West Va is 3-1 SU in its last four with TCU, covering all four. That includes last season's 20-17 outright upset at Fort Worth as about a two-TD underdog. I just noted West Va's defense above and will add that its "stop unit" is allowing just 282 YPG against Big 12 opponents, holding those foes to 97 YPG under their season average. West Va is averaging 39.5 PPG in going 4-0 at home and RB Brown, who has averaged a modest 76.0 YPG on the road, averages 128.2 YPG at home. Add in that QB Doege has thrown for over 300 yards in each of West Va's last four games with a 6-1 TD/INT ratio and "the price is right" for a West Va "W' and an easy cover! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-14-20 | Penn State -3 v. Nebraska | Top | 23-30 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Penn St at 12:00 ET. Penn State and Nebraska are two of CFB's most storied programs with more than 1,700 wins between the schools. However, the Nittany Lions (ranked No. 7 in the AP's preseason poll) and Nebraska both meet Saturday at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Ne (12 ET) winless so far in 2020. Penn State has opened a season with three straight losses for the first time since 2001, when it dropped its first four games, and hasn't experienced a losing season since going 4-7 in 2004. The Nittany Lions opened this season with a 36-35 overtime loss at Indiana on Oct 24, suffered a 13-point home loss to Ohio State and then suffered a 35-19 home defeat to Maryland on Saturday as a four-TD favorite. Nebraska opened 2020 off three straight losing seasons under Scott Frost and has scored just 30 points in losing to Ohio State and Northwestern. Current head coach Jamie Franklin led Vandy to three straight bowl games from 2011-13, after the school had made only FOUR bowl appearances in its history. That got him the Penn St job and after back-to-back 7-6 seasons, led the Nittany Lions to 11-win seasons in THREE of the next four years. Expectations were high entering 2020 but I've already noted Penn St's 'nightmare' of a start. "It's very apparent what type of football team we are," Penn State QB Sean Clifford said. "We are an 0-3, underperforming football team." Clifford completed 27 of 57 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns, with two interceptions, against Maryland. He's thrown three TD passes in each of the team's first three games but gets little help from a running game averaging just 129.3 YPG on 3.4 YPC (Clifford is the team's leading rusher with 150 yards). However, he does have solid receivers in WRs Dotson 21 catches / 17.2 yPC / 5 TDs) and Washington (14 catches / 3 TDs) plus TE Freiermuth (16 catches / 1 TD). Penn State's defense is typically a strength (allowed just 16.0 PPG in 2019) but after three games, this year's team is allowing 36.3 PPG. Scott Frost led Nebraska to a national championship back in 1997 as its starting QB and always wanted to "return home." After leading UCF to a perfect 13-0 season in 2017, he got his wish. As the proverb goes, "Be careful what you wish for." The 'Huskers have gone 4-8, 5-7 and 0-2, giving Frost a 9-17 record, including 6-14 in the Big Ten. Starting QB Martinez and backup McCaffrey have combined to throw 65 passes and Nebraska is still without a TD pass. The duo split time vs Northwestern, as Nebraska rushed for 224 yards, totaled 442 yards and gained 28 FDs but suffered a 21-13 loss at Northwestern on Saturday. "It's inexcusable we only had 13 points in that game," Frost said. He's right about that. Martinez and McCaffrey are runners, not passers, with Martinez running for 187 yards (7.2 YPC) and McCaffrey for 129 yards (7.6 YPC). The 'best' RB is Mills, who has just 84 yards on 3.0 YPC. As for pass-catchers, Robinson has 10 receptions, averaging a woeful 8.4 YPC. Comparative scores can be misleading but both have played Ohio St earlier, with Penn St within eight points in the early 4th quarter of a 13-point loss, while Nebraska got blown out, 52-17. This is Nebraska's first home game of 2020 but so what, the Cornhuskers are 5-15 ATS at home the last three seasons. The Nebraska pass D has allowed 75% completions through two games (36 of 48), so expect Clifford to have a big day. NO 0-4 start for Penn St. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-13-20 | Iowa v. Minnesota +4 | Top | 35-7 | Loss | -113 | 50 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Minnesota at 7:00 ET. Kirk Ferentz was hired as Iowa's 26th head football coach to replace the retiring Hayden Fry back on December 2, 1998. The team struggled during Ferentz's first two seasons with a combined 4–19 record but the Hawkeyes earned their first bowl bid of the Ferentz era after a 7–5 season in 2001 and then beat Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl, 19–16. The winning has been consistent ever since, as Iowa has gone 'bowling' in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. Problems arose this past offseason internally and Iowa, which opened No. 24 in the AP's preseason poll, has lost 24-20 at Purdue and 21-20 at home to Northwestern to open a season 0-2 for the first time since 2000. However, the Hawkeyes routed Michigan St 49-7 last Saturday, as Iowa's defense made life miserable for Michigan State QBs, producing two sacks, three interceptions and five hurries (MSU was held to 10 FDs and 286 yards of total offense). PJ Fleck 'rowed the boat' at Western Michigan back in 2016, leading the Broncos to a 13-1 season. He used that as a 'launching pad' to get the Minnesota job and in his third season at the school, led the Gophers to an 11-win season (1st since 1904), including that impressive win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. Leading rusher Smith (1,163 yards / 5.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and record-setting WR Tyler Johnson (86 catches / 1,1318 yards / 13 TDs) have moved on and the defense returned just FOUR starters. Minnesota was blown out in its opener against Michigan, allowing 256 rushing yards and 49 points and then lost 45-44 at Maryland (defense allowed 451 yards), when it missed a tying extra-point in OT. The Gophers picked up their first win of 2020 last Saturday, beating hapless Illinois, 41-14. Iowa had to replace its starting QB, as Nate Stanley ended a three-year career at Iowa with 68 TDs and 23 INTs, while posting a 27-12 record as a starter, including winning all THREE bowl appearances! Sophomore Spencer Petras completed just 53.9 percent of his passes in the first two games and was picked off three times by the Wildcats as the Hawkeyes managed just three points in the last three quarters of a one-point loss. He was better last Saturday, completing 15 of 27 for 167 yards with one TD and zero INTs. Iowa's running game averaged a modest 136.0 YPG in its 0-2 start but led by Tyler Goodson (113 yards / 2 TDs) the Hawkeyes ran for 226 yards on 5.5 YPC. Iowa's 2019 defense ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in allowing 14.0 PPG last season (5th nationally) and ranked 5th in the Big Ten in allowing 308.2 YPG (12th nationally). After three games of 2020, Iowa is allowing 17.0 PPG on 315.0 YPG. While the Gophers lost RB Smith and WR Johnson (see above), QB Tanner Morgan returned, after throwing 30 TD passes last season (against only seven INTs). However, Morgan is off to a VERY slow start (61.6% / 602 yards / 3 TDs and 2 INTs). The good news on offense is that RB Mohammad Ibrahim has returned to his freshman form (1,160 yards on 5.7 YPC with nine TDs), after being injured for part of last season (he still ran for 604 yards on 5.3 YPC and seven TDs). Ibrahim ran 30 times for 224 yards with four TDs last Saturday and has gained a conference-best 571 yards on 5.9 YPC with 10 TDs through three games. WR Bateman is no Johnson but he does have six TDs among his 24 catches. Minnesota's D was awful vs Michigan and Maryland, so a good effort vs pathetic Illinois is NO big deal. These rivals play for the Floyd of Rosedale, a statuette of the bronze pig that has served as the rivalry trophy in the series since 1935. It's true that Iowa has won FIVE straight in this series and that includes last season's 23-19 win in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes stormed to a 20-3 lead midway through the second quarter before holding on for a victory to ruin the then-No. 8 Golden Gophers' bid for an undefeated season and possible spot in the College Football Playoff. Talk about a "revenge" motive. Iowa can play defense but Minnesota's offense leads the Big Ten West, averaging 439.3 YPG while scoring 109 points (36.3 per). Morgan is OVERDUE for a "breakout" performance and should remember he threw for 386 yards against Iowa's defense last season. I'm calling for Minnesota to win AND by double-digits! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-12-20 | Colts v. Titans -1 | Top | 34-17 | Loss | -123 | 74 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* AFC South Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 8:20 ET. The 5-3 Indianapolis Colts visit Nashville on Thursday night to take on the 6-2 Tennessee Titans. The Titans can open a two-game lead in the division with a win, while the Colts can move into a first-place tie with the Titans by winning. The teams meet again at Indianapolis in Week 12. The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA and he's been solid (more below) but it's the team's defense that's been the key, as the Colts are allowing a league-low 290.0 YPG and 20.0 PPG (3rd-best). The Titans entered the season off their great playoff run of last season (won at New England and Baltimore before losing at KC in the AFC championship game) and got off to a 5-0 start. However, back-to-back losses followed, before last Sunday's 24-17 win over the Bears. Rivers took over as the Chargers' starting QB in 2006 and over the next 14 seasons, started EVERY game, topping 3,000 passing yards in every one, including passing for over 4,000 yards 11 times (he's topped 4,000 in his last SEVEN seasons). He's on pace for another 4,000-yard season in 2020, as through eight games he's got 2,087 yards. His completion rate of 67.9% is slightly above his career mark (64.8) and his QB rating of 91.9 is just below his career mark (95.0). However, he has thrown a modest 10 TD passes and has seven INTs. WR Hilton (22) looks like he'll be able to play but TE Cox (17) is out. The team's leading receiver is RB Hines (28 catches for three TDs). The running game offers little help, averaging 102.4 YPG on 3.7 YPC. Rookie RB Taylor has underwhelmed so far, with 416 yards on 3.9 YPC with four TDs. As noted earlier, it's been the defense that's led the way for the Colts in 2020. Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for Mariota midway through the 2019 season and was a steady hand during the Titans' strong regular season finish and their playoff run. However, most thought of him as little more than a "game-manager," with the Tennessee offense relying on RB Derrick Henry. Henry dominated most of the time in 2019 but here in 2020, Tannehill has broken through (out). He's completing 65.7% for 1,981 yards with a great TD/INT ratio of 19-3 and a QB rating of 109.4. Henry ran for 1,540 yards with 16 TDs in 2019 and is on pace to duplicate that in 202 with 843 yards and eight TDs. The Tennessee defense has NOT played as well this season, allowing about 30 more YPG and more importantly, 25.1 PPG, after allowing 20.7 PPG in 2019. The Colts had won five of six before Sunday's 24-10 home loss to Baltimore, which dropped them a game behind Tennessee for first place in the AFC South. Meanwhile, Tennessee ended a two-game slide with its best defensive effort in a month. The Titans held the Bears scoreless through three quarters and fixed their third-down issues, allowing Chicago to convert just 2 of 15 after permitting opponents to cash in on nearly 62 percent during the first seven games. The Bears are no offensive juggernaut but that's the case with the Colts too, with Indy averaging 26.o PPG (15th) and 360.5 YPG (21st). Yes, the Colts D has been terrific but the Titans are averaging 29.0 PPG (7th-best). As noted above, this will be the first of two meetings between the teams in 17 days, as they play again on Nov 29 in Indianapolis. Earning a win here is HUGE. My bet says it's Tennessee, as the Titans are 8-3 SU at home since Tannehill assumed the starting job and this price means a "W" is basically a cover! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-11-20 | Toledo v. Western Michigan -2.5 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 50 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* MAC Game of the Year is on Western Michigan at 8:00 ET. Both Toledo and Western Michigan opened their respective 2020 season with wins over the MAC East's two bottom teams. Toledo led longtime rival Bowling Green (schools are about 25 miles apart) 21-0 at the end of the first quarter and cruised to a 38-3 lead, running up 524 yards while holding BG to just 267. Western Michigan actually trailed Akron 7-3 but opened a 30-13 lead at the half, before scoring 28 unanswered second-half points for a 58-13 win. It's fair to say, this contest will be a much more competitive game. Toledo's Jason Candle begins his fifth season at Toledo, after he replaced Matt Campbell in 2015. Campbell left to take the Iowa St job and Candle coached the Rockets to 32-17 Boca Raton Bowl win over Temple. He led Toledo to three straight bowls from 2016-18 but lost all three. Toledo came up short of a bowl last season and its 6-6 record snapped a run of NINE consecutive winning seasons. Western Michigan's Tim Lester has had BIG shoes to fill, taking over in 2017, after PJ Fleck led the Broncos to a 13-1 season (and a Cotton Bowl bid vs Wisconsin) in 2016. His first team went 6-6 (no bowl) but the Broncos have gone to a bowl each of the last two seasons, although they've lost both, finishing 7-6 each season (more later). Eli Peters was the returning QB at Toledo but had some challengers. He held them off and looked good in his first action of 2020, going 20 of 32 for 314 yards with four TDs and zero INTs. Four different players caught TD passes, three WRs and RB Koback. Koback had 1,187 rushing yards last season (12 TDs) but had a modest 74 last week, as backfield partner Seymour led with 93 yards on 7.2 YPC. Not to worry, Toledo ran for 310 yards on 6.0 YPC. The defense held BG in check and forced three turnovers. Kaleb Eleby (redshirted last season ) but played well at QB for the Broncos, completing 12 of 16 for 262 yards with three TDs and no INTs. The running game, which will miss Bellamy (1,472 yards and 23 TDs last season), ran for 218 yards on 5.6 YPC. Jefferson had 70 yards on 7.8 YPC and Tyler had 68 yards on 7.6 YPC (each scored a TD). WR Eskridge was injured last season but had three catches totaling 114 yards (38.0 YPC) with two going for TDs. Here's the rub. Toledo has won EIGHT of the last 10 meetings but I'm far from sold on this year's team, coming off its 6-6 record last year (see above). Toledo was just 1-5 SU a on the road last season, including 0-4 in MAC games, getting outscored 170-58 (that's 42.5-to-14.5 PPG!). Meanwhile, Western Michigan was 6-0 SU at home last season (will take a seven-game home winning streak into this one), going 4-0 at home in MAC games by outscoring opponents 153-72 (that's 38.3-to-18.0 PPG). Western Michigan ended last season by losing to a depleted Northern Illinois team, which cost them the West Divison title and then in the First Responder Bowl against Western Ky, a too-many-me-on-the-field penalty sealed a 23-20 loss. I like WMU's chances of winning the West in 2020 and a win here, gives them the tiebreaker over Toledo, which with a SIX-game schedule, is HUGE. Home team gets the "W" and COVER! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-08-20 | Saints v. Bucs -4 | Top | 38-3 | Loss | -115 | 49 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the TB Bucs at 8:20 ET. When the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints met in Week 1, it featured the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that was hardly the ONLY storyline, as those particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees was the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady was second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. The Saints won that Week 1 game 34-23 but as teams meet again in Week 9, the 6-2 Bucs sit atop the NFC South with the 5-2 Saints right on their heels. Brees is completing 73.1% for 1,898 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs, while Brady's completing 66.2% for 2,189 yards with 20 TDs and only four INTs. Brees still has more career passing yards than Brady (about 3,000 more) but TB 12 now leads Brees in career TD passes, 561 to 560. Brees, who has had shoulder issues this season, has played almost the entire season with WR Michael Thomas (caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. He has practiced on a limited basis this week but the Saints have yet to make a firm commitment on his status. As for Brady, he threw two INTs and was sacked three times in the opener but has since led the Bucs to a 6-1 record with 18 TDs and just two INTs. RB Kamara didn't sign a new deal with the Saints until right before the 2020 season opened but he's run for 431 yards (5.0 YPC) with four TDs, while leading the team in receptions with 55 (three TD catches), The Bus have a solid RB as well in Jones, who has 529 yards (4.5 YPC) with four TDs. WR Evans has 30 catches and a team-high seven TD catches, while fellow WR Miller has 25 catches (two TDs), averaging a team-high 16.0 YPC. Then there's Gronk, who is back in form after catching 14 passes the last three games, adding one TD catch in each game. Of course, the HUGE news out of Tampa recently has been that the Buccaneers activated wide receiver Antonio Brown from the suspended list earlier in the week. They signed the former Steeler, Raider and Patriot on Oct 27. "He'll have his role," Bucs head coach Bruce Arians said. "It could be 10 plays, it could be 35 plays. I wouldn't anticipate 60 plays, for sure, but we'll just see how it goes." Arians said Brown was "full speed" in his first workout with his new team. I had the Saints in that Week 1 win but will "Back the Bucs" in this one. Tampa Bay's defense is third in yards allowed (299.5 per game), tied for first in takeaways (14) and tied for 2nd in sacks (28). However, the most important defensive number is always points allowed and the Bucs are allowing 20.6 PPG, compared to the 28.1 PPG allowed by the Saints OK, the Bucs have traditionally been a VERY poor home favorite but that was ALL pre-TB 12. Tampa Bay has played three home games in 2020, beating the Panthers 31-17, the Chargers 38-31 and the Packers 38-10. This is Tampa Bay's LONE home game in a four-game stretch and a win means the Bucs will extend their lead over the Saints to 1 1/2-games (two up in the loss column). Lay it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-08-20 | Dolphins v. Cardinals -4 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* AFC/NFC Game of the Month is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:25 ET. The Dolphins and Cards are both 2020 surprises. Miami's playoff appearance in 2016 is its ONLY one over the previous 11 seasons. The Dolphins had gone 18-30 in the three seasons since that 2016 playoff appearance but enter this contest 4-3, having won FOUR of five, including three straight. Arizona was 13-3 back in 2015 but followed with four straight non-winning seasons, including a combined 8-23-2 record the last two seasons. However, the Cards come off their bye week at 5-2 and also enter this game on a THREE-game winning streak. Drawing top-billing in this game will be former first-round QB picks Kyler Murray (No. 1 overall in 2019) and Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5 in 2020). The Dolphins made the decision to bench veteran QB Ryan Fitzgerald and give Tua his first career start in Miami's Week 8 game against the Rams. Last Monday's headline read: Tua wins his first NFL start! Can't argue with Miami's 28-17 win over the LA Rams but didn't Miami win DESPITE Tua? He fumbled on his first pass attempt as Rams star defensive tackle Aaron Donald knocked the ball loose, setting up the Rams on Miami's 15-yard line. Three plays later, it was 7-0 LA. However, the Dolphins scored 28 consecutive first-half points to take a 28-7 lead, thanks in large part to four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles) by Rams QB Jared Goff. One fumble was returned 78 yards for a TD plus Miami added an 88-yard punt return TD, as well. As for Tua, he completed 12 of 22 for 93 yards with one TD (zero INTs). His longest completion was for 15 yards and his TD pass was a three-yarder. Miami's running game has not been ANY help, averaging just 98.0 YPG on 3.6 YPC. Myles Gaskins leads the team with 387 yards rushing on just 3.9 YPC and two TDs. WRs Parker (30 catches / 12.2 YPC / 3 TDs) and Williams (14 catches / 16.3 YPC / 5 TDs) will give Tua some quality targets but can he deliver the ball to them? We'll see. Miami's defense allows 376.0 YPG (middle-of-the-road) but only 18.6 PPG, the lowest of any team! That defense will get a good test vs Murray and the Arizona offense. Murray is completing 66.8% for 1,847 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. He adds 437 yards rushing on 6.7 YPC with seven TDs. Drake has turned into a solid RB, rushing for 512 yards on 4.3 YPC with four TDs. While Miami averages under 100 YPG on the ground (see above), Arizona averages 160.7 YPG on 5.2 YPC. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald is still around but he averages just 7.1 YPC on 29 receptions (zero TDs). However, Hopkins has 57 catches (12.4 YPC / 3 TDs) and Kirk just 18 receptions but averages 15.4 YPC and five TDs. Arizona's D entered its Week 7 game with Seattle and Russell Wilson allowing just 18.6 PPG but allowed 572 yards and 34 points, as Wilson threw for 388 yards and three TDs. However, Arizona despite trailing by 10 points midway through the 4th quarter, Arizona came back for a 37-34 OT win, Seattle's only loss of 2020. BTW,,,The Cardinals picked off Wilson THREE times, the same number of interceptions he's thrown in Seattle's SIX wins, combined. I talked about Arizona's advantage in the running game earlier and Miami's Gaskin (knee injury) and backup running back Matt Breida (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday. Then, Gaskin was put on injured reserve Thursday and will have to miss at least three games. Murray has 23 starts under his belt and gets better week-by-week, while Tua makes only his second career start, after a very mediocre first one. What's more, this start comes on the road. The Dolphins are just 5-10 ATS as a non-division road dog, while Arizona comes off a bye on a THREE-game winning streak SU and ATS, with an average margin of victory of 17.0 PPG. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-08-20 | Giants v. Washington Football Team OVER 41.5 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 78 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* "Featured" NFL Sunday Total (Week 9) is on NYG/Was Over at 1:00 ET. Washington and the NY Giants met in MetLife Stadium in Week 6, with the Giants eking out a 20-19 win. Kyle Allen threw a 22-yard TD pass to Cam Sims with 36 seconds left but head coach Ron Rivera's gamble for a two-point try was unsuccessful. Washington bounced back from that loss to dominate Dallas 25-3 in Week 7 and Week 8 served as the team's bye week. That Week 6 win for New York is the Giants' lone win of the 2020 season, as the Giants followed it with "close but no cigar" losses at Philly (22-21) and home to Tampa Bay (25-23). Washington's just 2-5 but in the NFC East, where 3-4-1 Philly 'masquerades' as a division-leader, a win keeps Washington in the hunt. As for the 1-7 Giants, it's really a stretch to think the team has any realistic division hopes. However, the Giants do own the NFC East's best ATS record (5-3), with Washington following at 4-3 and division-leader Philly checking in at 3-5. The Giants have NO running game with Barkley out for the season, as QB Daniel Jones leads the team with 316 yards (9.3 YPC!). The team averages only 98.5 YPG on the ground but if one were to subtract Jones' contributions, the team's RBs are averaging 59.0 YPG on a sad-sack 3.3 YPC. The Giants will need to score through the air but Jones is completing 61.8% for a modest 1,666 yards (barely over 200 per game) plus has more INTs (nine) than TDs (seven). New York's D is allowing 24.6 PPG on 354.8 YPG. Washington was impressive in its 25-3 win over the Dallas Cowboys, out-gaining Dallas 397-142. Rookie RB Antonio Gibson ran for a career-high 128 yards, while Kyle Allen was 15-for-25 with two TDs and 194 yards in his third start since replacing Dwayne Haskins. The QB change has been good. Allen has completed 68.7% in his last two games, with four TD passes and just one INT, posting QB ratings of 97.3 and 111.1 (against Dallas). Gibson now has 371 rushing yards on the season (4.4 YPC and two TDs) plus fellow RB McKissic has 25 catches. WR McLaurin has 43 grabs (13.4 YPC / 2 TDs) and TE Thomas 21 catches with three TDs. The Giants have won FIVE of the last six in this series plus have posted an impressive 14-3 ATS mark as a road underdog. The Giants enter having scored 34, 20, 22 and 23 points in their last four games (an average of 24.9 PPG) and I like them to be in that point-range again here. As for Washington, Allen is the right choice at QB and RB Gibson is starting to make an impact. Washington is up against a New York D which has allowed 25.8 PPG in its last four, so I'm expecting them to score along with the Giants. Go O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-08-20 | Broncos v. Falcons -3.5 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 69 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET. The 3-4 Broncos are in Atlanta on Sunday to take on the 2-6 Falcons and BOTH teams know all about "down to the wire" finishes in 2020. Denver opened the current season off THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. The Broncos lost their season opener 16-14 to the Titans, when Tennessee kicked the game-winning FG with just 17 seconds left in the game. Just last Sunday, the Broncos came back from a 24-3 first-half deficit against the Chargers to win 31-30 on a TD pass on the game's final play! The Falcons have never been the same since losing a 28-3 lead to the Pats in the Super Bowl in the 2016 season and early this season were involved in notable collapses in Week 2 vs the Cowboys and Week 3 vs the Bears plus just two weeks ago in their most recent home game, they lost on the final play to the Detroit Lions, 23-22. Drew Lock opened the season as Denver's 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning led the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and missed some earlier but has been back in the staring lineup for each of the last three games. He completed 26 of 41 passes for 248 yards with three TDs (including the game-winner with 0:00 left) and one INT, earning a QB rating of 94.4. That said, I will NOT ignore that fact that in his two previous starts, he completed just 53.1% with zero TD passes and four INTs, with QB ratings of 57.7 and 34.9! Gordon has NOT been a big boost for Denver's running game (375 yards on 4.2 YPC / 4 TDs), which averages only 112.9 YPG. TE Fant leads with 29 catches and WR Jeudy has 23 catches (15.6 YPC / one TD). Denver's D is no better than average, allowing 26.1 PPG on 360.0 YPG. When Atlanta lost 23-16 at home to Carolina to fall to 0-5, head coach Dan Quinn was fired (should have been gone right after that INCREDIBLE Super Bowl collapse). The Falcons named Raheem Morris as interim head coach and the Falcons are 2-1 but with ANY luck, would be 3-0 (lost to Detroit on the game's final play). Matt Ryan will be close to 5,000 passing yards once again, as he's completing 66.8% for 2,462 yards with 12 TDs and four INTs. Third-year WR Ridley is having an excellent season (543 catches / 15.3 YPC / 6 TDs) and superstar WR Julio Jones is rejuvenated (and healthy), catching 23 balls for 371 yards the last three games. Like Gordon for Denver, Atlanta's signing of Gurley has NOT improved the running game as much as expected. He does have 531 yards but averaged just 3.8 YPC. Still, his eight TDs through eight games "ain't bad!" The Atlanta defense can't be counted on (especially to hold a lead), allowing 28.0 PPG on 410.6 YPG. I guess one could call this a rematch of SB XXXIII, a game that saw QB John Elway cap his career with a 34-19 victory and MVP honors. However, that seems like a lifetime ago. Atlanta is in a bad historical ATS situation but I think Lock is overrated and the Falcons catch Denver off its 'miracle' comeback won over the Chargers last Sunday. As mentioned above, the Falcons have responded VERY well to the coaching change, so I'm laying the points, expecting a comfortable Atlanta win. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-07-20 | Washington State v. Oregon State -2.5 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* Pac 12 Opener is on Oregon St at 10:30 ET. The Pac-12 and the Big Ten Conference voted to postpone fall sports back in August but the Big Ten was first to reverse that decision, leaving the Pac 12 as the only Power Five conference still postponing. However, the Pac 12 announced on Sep 24 that it would return to the field with each schools playing a conference-only seven-game schedule (championship game is scheduled for December 18). Finally, the conference's 12 schools begin play on Saturday, Nov 7, with ONE of the six games on the schedule featuring Washington St and Oregon St meeting in Corvallis. It's a rematch of one of the wildest games in the 2019 Pac-12 season, when last November in Pullman, the Cougars overcame an 11-point deficit in the final 2:10 to win 54-53. The victory was the last of Mike Leach's eight-year tenure at Washington State. The Cougars lost their regular-season finale to rival Washington, then dropped the Cheez-It Bowl to Air Force. Leach left the program in January for Mississippi State and Nick Rolovich was announced as the new head coach for Washington State on January 13, 2020. Rolovich was hired as the new head football coach at the University of Hawaii back on Nov 27, 2015. Rolovich played QB at Hawaii for two years and in his four seasons at Hawaii, led the Rainbow Warriors to THREE Hawaii Bowl berths (won two of the three). This game marks the debut of Washington State's "run-and-shoot" offense, after eight years of the "Air Raid." The scheme change also comes with a new starting QB, the FOURTH different season-opening starter for the Cougars in as many years. Gardner Minshew and Anthony Gordon were single-season starters at Washington State in 2018 and 2019, and both set various passing records in their abbreviated stints. The running game is led by Max Borghi, who ran for 817 yards (6.4 YPC) with 11 TDs, while also catching 86 passes for another five TDs. WSU's top-three WRs have gone and that trio combined for 221 receptions! However, Bell (54), Harris (47) and Martin (43) give whoever plays QB, plenty of solid targets. Defense IS a problem, as the Cougars allowed 31.4 PPG, including 36.6 PPG in Pac 12 play. Jonathan Smith was a four-year starter for the Beavers at QB. As a junior in 2000 under Dennis Erickson, he led the Beavers to their greatest season in school history. The Beavers finished 11–1 (a school record for wins), won a share of their first conference title in 36 years and finished fourth in the country. Smith was the MVP of the Fiesta Bowl. He's now the team's head coach and begins his third season. His first ended with a 2-10 record but in 2019, a victory in the above-mentioned game with Washington St would have given OSU a 6-6 record, with the Beavers becoming bowl-eligible. Instead, the Beavers finished 5-7. Oregon State will have a new QB this season as well, as Jake Luton, who passed for 2,714 yards and 28 touchdowns against just three interceptions in 2019, is now with the NFL's Jacksonville Jaguars. Luton's backup a season ago, Tristan Gebbia, will make the start on Saturday. RB Pierce (873 yards / 6.0 YPC / 6 TDs) is also gone but Jefferson is primed for a HUGE year. He ran for 1,380 yards as a freshman and battled injuries last season but still ran for 685 yards on 4.8 YPC with eight TDs. Reports are that the defense has made major strides under DC Tim Tibesar and this is "Year 2" in his system. The Beavers have SEVEN of their top-eight tacklers back on defense, including pass-rushing linebacker Hamilcar Rashed Jr. returns after a 2019 season in which he racked up 22.5 tackles for loss and 14 sacks. OSU and WSU combined for 48 points in the fourth-quarter of last season's shoot-out, with WSU scoring the game-winning TD with just TWO seconds remaining. Washington St opens the season with a new head coach, a new offensive scheme and a new QB. Meanwhile, Oregon St ended last season covering FIVE of its last six games, while pulling THREE outright upsets. Throw in a little "revenge" motive from last season and the play is on the Beavers! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-07-20 | Clemson -5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 40-47 | Loss | -113 | 79 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on Clemson at 7:30 ET. The marquee matchup on Saturday (and the Game of the CFB 2020 season to-date) is No. 1 Clemson (7-0) at No. 4 Notre Dame (6-0). You may have heard that Trevor Lawrence will NOT play, meaning freshman D.J. Uiagalelei will line up under center for the Tigers for the second straight Saturday. He passed for 342 yards and two TDs plus ran for a third, as Clemson came back from a 28-7 halftime deficit to beat Boston College 34-28 (Tigers were favored by 26 1/2-points). Clemson has won 28 consecutive games against ACC opponents and 40 straight regular season games, the second-longest streak of all-time. Notre Dame is off a less-than-impressive win as well, winning 31-13 at Ga Tech as a three-TD road favorite. The Irish will welcome the Tigers to South Bend owning a 12-game winning streak, the longest active among FBS teams. The ACC has a different feel in 2020, with the addition of Notre Dame and the dissolution of divisions. This season's ACC championship game in Charlotte, N.C. will feature the league's top-two schools in a now 15-team league. Is it possible that this week's game could merely be a prelude to a mid-December rematch? Maybe so but let's concentrate on "first things first!" Uiagalelei hadn't looked all that good in a "mop roll" when Lawrence was sent to the sidelines but he showed plenty of poise in his first career start, last week. Sure, it was only against Boston College AND it was at home. Clearly, playing in South Bend, even without crowds, is an entirely different 'animal.' However, let's NOT forget that while Lawrence was the Heisman front-runner, the two-time ACC offensive POY is RB Etienne (606 yards on 5.9 YPC with 9 TDs plus 29 catches for 2 TDs). He's off back-to-back 'MONSTER' seasons and should get plenty of work here. NINE different players have caught at least one TD, led by WR Rodgers (40 catches / 14.6 YPC / 6 TDs). Clemson's defense has allowed less than 14 PPG each of the last three seasons but is off that pace in 2020, allowing 18.2 PPG. How good is Notre Dame? The Irish have been unimpressive in wins over Duke, Louisville and Ga Tech (note: those schools are a combined 4-14). I do NOT get the hype surrounding QB Ian Book, who looks no better than average to me. He completes 61.3% for 1,225 yards (7 TDs / 1 INT) and has added five rushing TDs. The Notre Dame running game is strong, as Williams (600 yards on 5.7 YPC / 7 TDs) leads a unit averaging 2310 YPG on 5.1 YPC. As for ND's receiving corps, TE Mayer leads with 15 catches (are you kidding me?). Notre Dame's defense is allowing only 10.3 PPG but again, the team's six 'victims' are a combined 8-27 (.229). Not a single Notre Dame opponent has a winning record, so its defensive stats mean little to me. Yes, Clemson's D is allowing almost five PPG more than in the last three seasons but here in 2020, Clemson has held FIVE of its seven opponents to a season-low in total yards. Clemson would be laying more than double-digits with Lawrence and my bet says Uiagalelei will be just fine and Etienne will be a STAR! Lay the 'cheap' number! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-07-20 | Florida +3.5 v. Georgia | Top | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 72 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Florida at 3:30 ET. "The World's Largest Cocktail Party" will be played in Jacksonville on Saturday, as No. 5 Georgia (4-1) takes on and No. 8 Florida (3-1). The two SEC East schools square off as top-10 teams for the THIRD consecutive season, with Georgia (which owns a 52-43-2 series lead) looking for its FOURTH straight win in the series. "It doesn't clinch it or seal anything, but whoever wins this game certainly is putting themselves in the driver's seat to get to Atlanta," Florida head coach Dan Mullen said (Georgia is seeking a fourth straight SEC title). Florida is dealing with injuries, suspensions and potential COVID-19 absences but returned from a three-week layoff (COVID issues) to beat Missouri 41-17 last Saturday. The Gators had a near-perfect pass/run balance in 2018, passing for 213.5 YPG, while rushing for 213.2 YPG but last season Florida passed for 305 yards and ran for 130. That's continued in 2020 with QB Trask completing 68.3% for 1,341 yards in four games (335 per) with 18 TDs and just two TDs, while Florida is averaging only 133.8 YPG rushing but on 4.8 YPC. The team's leading rusher (Pierce) has just 169 yards but averages 5.0 YPC. 6-5 TE Pitts has 22 catches, averaging 16.1 YPC with seven TDs and WR Toney also has 22 catches with six TDs (13.5 YPC). Florida's defense was AWFUL the first three games, allowing 100 points but finally showed up against Missouri, holding the Tigers to 17 points on just 248 yards. One could say it was "only Missouri," but the Georgia offense has been VERY underwhelming in 2020. QB Stetson Bennett ignited the offense when he came off the bench in the opener at Arkansas, completing 20 of 29 for 211 yards with two TDs and no INTs in a 37-10 win. Bennett had five TDs without an INT in Georgia's 3-0 start but in the Bulldogs' 41-24 loss at Alabama and last Saturday's 14-3 win at Kentucky, he has just two TD passes and FIVE interceptions. Bennett only has one quality receiver, Jackson (24 catches / 14.5 YPC / one TD) and Georgia's running game is better than Florida's (175.2 YPG) but NOT by much. Georgia arrived in Tuscaloosa for its showdown with Alabama ranking first nationally in rushing defense (38.3 YPG), second in total defense (236.7 YPG) and tied for fifth in scoring defense (12.3 PPG). However, Alabama shredded Georgia's defense with 41 points on 564 yards and Florida comes into this game averaging 42.0 PPG on 476.5 YPG. I'll take the points but expect a Florida outright win. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-07-20 | Michigan State v. Iowa -6.5 | Top | 7-49 | Win | 100 | 96 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Iowa at 12:00 ET. Mel Tucker was an assistant at Ohio St under Jim Tressel when the Buckeyes won a national championship and also was part of a national championship team at Alabama under Nick Saban. His first head coaching job came at Colorado in 2019, with the Buffs going 5-7. However, when Michigan State's all-time winningest coach Mark Dantonio stepped down at the end of 2019, Tucker resigned as Colorado's head coach to accept the same position at Michigan State. Tucker's contract at Michigan State is worth $5.5 million annually for six years; more than double his contract at Colorado (not a tough choice, because loyalty and honoring contracts have NO place in college football). His debut for Michigan St turned into a 'nightmare,' as the Spartans lost 38-27 at home to Rutgers (as a 9 1/2-point favorite), turning the ball over SEVEN times! The Scarlet Knights broke a 21-game losing streak in the Big Ten with the victory. However, he made history last week as his team surprised archrival Michigan 27-24, as just over a three-TD underdog. Tucker became the first Spartans coach to record his first overall victory against the Wolverines. The Spartans will try to carry that momentum over to Iowa in a Big Ten game on Saturday. Kirk Ferentz was hired as Iowa's 26th head football coach to replace the retiring Hayden Fry back on December 2, 1998. The team struggled during Ferentz's first two seasons with a combined 4–19 record but the Hawkeyes earned their first bowl bid of the Ferentz era after a 7–5 season in 2001 and then beat Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl, 19–16. The winning has been consistent ever since, as Iowa has gone 'bowling' in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. Problems arose over the offseason internally and Iowa, which opened No. 24 in the AP's preseason poll, has lost 24-20 at Purdue and 21-20 at home to Northwestern to open a season 0-2 for the first time since 2000. Michigan St had to replace QB Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi threw for 319 yards with three TDs and two INTs in the loss to Rutgers. He then threw for 323 yards and three TDs (without an interception) at Michigan and found a new favorite target in WR wide Ricky White, as the freshman set a single-game school record with 196 receiving yards. White is averaging 22.3 YPC on his nine receptions, while fellow WSRs Reed (12 / 12.2 YPC / 2 TDs) and Nailor (eight catches / 19.0 YPC) / 1 TD) give Lombardi quality options. However, MSU's running game is averaging just 88.0 YPG on 2.7 YPC. Iowa also had to replace its starting QB, as Nate Stanley ended a three-year career at Iowa with 68 TDs and 23 INTs, while posting a 27-12 record as a starter, including winning all THREE bowl appearances! Sophomore Spencer Petras has completed just 53.9 percent of his passes in the first two games and was picked off three times by the Wildcats as the Hawkeyes managed just three points in the last three quarters of a one-point loss. "Spencer has done a lot of good things," Ferentz said. "You keep in mind this is his first year starting. Unlike most guys in the past that have played here, he didn't have the luxury of being in spring practice, so this is learning on the job." He'd better start learning fast! Iowa's running game has averaged a modest 136.0 YPG on 4.6 YPC, so as noted, Petras is going have to up his game. Iowa's 2019 defense ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in allowing 14.0 PPG last season (5th nationally) and ranked 5th in the Big Ten in allowing 308.2 YPG (12th nationally). "Historically, we have played a lot of close games, so the challenge for us right now is to find a way to get over the hump and make the outcome go a different direction -- in our direction," Ferentz said. "It gets down to being a little more detailed and doing everything collectively a little bit better." Off two "close losses," the Hawkeyes catch the Spartans off their upset of hated rival Michigan St. Iowa is on a 10-4 ATS run in this series and the fact remains that this inexperienced Michigan St team is off that HUGE win AND playing its second straight road game. Iowa has to be motivated (angry?) off those two close losses plus note that MSU is 3-9 ATS off a SU win the last two seasons, as well as being on a 3-11 ATS run vs Big Ten opponents. Great "situation" for a two-TD (or more) win by the Hawkeyes. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-07-20 | Michigan -2.5 v. Indiana | Top | 21-38 | Loss | -121 | 90 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Michigan at 12:00 ET. Michigan opened the season ranked No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll but of course didn't play its first game until Oct 24. The Wolverines won impressively 42-24 at Minnesota in their season opener but then lost last Saturday at home 27-24 to Michigan St as a three-TD favorite. Fans and alumni are getting tired of Harbaugh's lack of success against Michigan's top rivals, as the Wolverines are 8-13 against Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin during Harbaugh's five-plus year tenure. Tom Allen was hired back in 2016 to serve as defensive coordinator on head coach Kevin Wilson's staff at Indiana. However, on December 1, 2016, Indiana athletic director Fred Glass named Allen head coach after Wilson's sudden resignation, forcing Allen to make his coaching debut during the team's final game of the season at the 2016 Foster Farms Bowl, where the Hoosiers lost 26-24 to Utah. Allen's first two teams each went 5-7 but he quickly elevated Indiana's recruiting posture. Allen's third season was 2019 and he led Indiana to its first 7-2 start since 1993, earning the school's first top-25 ranking since 1994. Indiana finished the regular season with an 8-4 record, its first eight-win since 1993. The Hoosiers lost another close bowl game to cap the season, falling to Tennessee 23-22 in the Gator Bowl. Indiana opened 2020 with a dramatic 36-35 overtime win at home vs Penn State, then followed with a methodical 37-21 win at Rutgers on Saturday. Indiana is 2-0, giving the school its best start in the Big Ten since 1991, while the Hoosiers' No. 13 ranking is the school's highest since it was ranked 11th back in 1987. Michigan dominated Minnesota(which was coming off an 11-win season), as Joe Milton (making his first career start at QB) completed 15 of 22 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown plus rushed for 52 yards and another score. Michigan ran for 253 yards on 31 carries, an 8.3 average, while scoring five rushing TDs. That was supposed to be an excellent effort but then we saw Minnesota lose 45-44 (OT) to a sad-sack Maryland team. Milton passed for 300 yards last week (but on 51 attempts) and ran for 59 yards but Michigan scored just 24 points. Michigan scored on just FOUR of 12 possessions, finishing the game just 7 of 17 on third-down conversations. The defense contributed to the loss as well, allowing 449 yards. Allen's forte is defense and the Indiana D has forced THREE turnovers in each of its first two games. QB Michael Penix Jr threw for three TDs and added one rushing in the win over Rutgers. However, he's completing a modest 58.1% after two games for 408 yards. The Hoosiers have NO running game, averaging 75.0 YPG on 2.3 YPC. As Penix said after the Rutgers win, "The defense gave us great field position. I feel like it is a team effort. The defense causes turnovers whenever the opponent was backed up, and that gave us a short field. We took advantage of it." As for head coach Tom Allen, he still believes there is another level that the Hoosiers can reach as they head into Saturday's home matchup with Michigan. "It's about us playing our best football." "To me that's the focus. We haven't done that yet." I like Allen and what he's done at Indiana and Harbaugh is one of my least favorite coaches but Michigan IS the better team AND is coming off an embarrassing home loss to hated rival Michigan St. The Hoosiers offense has shown no real rhythm plus Indiana comes in just 3-7 ATS as a home dog under Allen. Most importantly, Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan since 1987. Harbaugh NEEDS a win and gets it here, "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-06-20 | BYU v. Boise State +3.5 | Top | 51-17 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Lights (Part 2) is on Boise St at 9:45 ET. The 2020 college football season was surely expected to be "unlike any other." Just ask BYU, as NINE of the 12 schools on its schedule originally decided to NOT play in 2020. BYU plays football as an Independent and had to scramble to patch together a 2020 schedule. However, the four conferences that opted out in August, reversed field in September. BYU's current head coach is Kalani Sitake, who took over in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6, again. No one expected much from BYU in 2020 but BYU's 7-0 start is its first since 2001 and its No. 9 ranking places the school inside the AP top-10 for the first time since November 7, 2009. This Friday contest figures to be a high-scoring affair as Boise State has averaged 45.5 points (third in the nation) and 454.5 yards (22nd) over its two first games, while BYU is averaging 44.4 points (seventh) and 527.7 yards (sixth). The Cougars have topped 40 points in six of their first seven games for the first time in program history. If BYU wins here, it could easily wind up unbeaten. The same holds for Boise St as currently, the team's remaining schedule doesn't feature any likely 'danger' spots. Boise has played just TWO games against overmatched opponents so to some extent one has to project. Case in point is that Boise State sophomore QB Hank Bachmeier (20 of 28 with 268 yards with three TDs and zero INTs in Boise's season opener) didn't travel with the team Saturday to a 49-30 victory over Air Force. Bryan Harsin has declined to shed light on the reason for Bachmeier's absence. What we do know is this. Junior transfer Jack Sears was superb in Bachmeier's place, completing 17 of 20 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns and also rushing for a score. RB George Holani extended Boise State's streak of 1,000-yard rushers to 11 straight seasons with 1,014 yards in 2019. He had 100 yards rushing in Boise's first game but was injured vs Air Force after two carries for five yards. However, RB Van Buren played well stepping in for Holani with 70 yards and two TDs. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-05-20 | Packers -4 v. 49ers | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* NFC Championship Game Rematch is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET. The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers both went 13-3 and met in the NFC championship game in 2019. The result was a DOMINATING San Francisco win, as the 49ers led 27-0 at the half and cruised to a 37-20. It's a rematch of that contest in this Week 9 Thursday Night game, as the 49ers again welcome the Packers to Levi's Stadium. The 49ers opened 2-3, then followed with B2B wins (24-16 at home against the Rams and 33-6 at the Pats), but then lost 37-27 at Seattle last Sunday. The 4-4 Niners find themselves in last-place in the NFL's toughest division, behind the 6-1 Seahawks, 5-2 Cards and 5-3 Rams. The Packers sprinted to a 4-0 SU & ATS start but after a bye (Week 5), have sandwiched a 35-20 Week 7 win at Houston with a 38-10 loss at Tampa Bay (Week 6) and a 28-22 home loss to Minnesota (Week 8). Green Bay is 5-2 and just a half-game up on the Bears in the NFC North. Aaron Rodgers entered last week's game with Minnesota on quite a roll, except for the team's 38-10 loss at Tampa. Rodgers was 16 of 35 for only 160 yards without a TD pass and was intercepted twice in that one. However, in Green Bay's five wins, he'd thrown for 1,497 yards (299.4 per game) with 17 TDs and not a SINGLE interception in 173 attempts! Rodgers had a solid game vs the Vikings, completing 27 of 41 for 291 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. However, RB Aaron Jones (389 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs plus 18 catches for 2 TDs) missed his second straight game with a calf injury and Green Bay was able to run for just 109 yards. In contrast, Minnesota's Dalvin Cook ran for 163 yards with three TDs and added a TD catch. Green Bay WR Davante Adams had missed two games this season but had 13 receptions for 196 yards and two TDs in Week 7 and while his seven catches last Sunday only totaled 53 yards, THREE went for TDs. He has 43 catches and seven TDs in five games this season, while TE Tonyan has five TDs in a modest 23 catches. Green Bay's defense has underperformed from last season, allowing 26.7 PPG after allowing 19.6 PPG in last season. San Francisco's loss at Seattle not only dropped them into last place but adding insult to injury, TE Kittles (foot) and QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) both got hurt and each will miss multiple games. It is possible that neither player will suit up again this season. The team's best RB Mostert (303 yards on 5.9 YPC) is out with an injury and after Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for a career-high three TDs and 112 yards in the win over Houston, he sustained a high left ankle sprain that landed him on injured reserve. The 49ers ran for just 52 yards (2.4 YPC) against Seattle. Nick Mullens replace Jimmy G last week and completed 18 of 25 for 238 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Mullens is completing 70.4% for 852 yards with seven TDs and five INTs (5-5 ratio prior to last week). I'll admit that San Francisco as a home dog (climbing to almost a TD by Wednesday) seems tempting. However, this team has SO many key injuries and now COVID issues, that the 49ers are a 'shell' of the club which led KC 20-10 in last year's Super Bowl midway through the fourth quarter. THREE of San Francisco's four wins have come over the NY Giants, NY Jets and the NE Pats, a trio which owns a combined record of 3-20. Green Bay gets some revenge from last year's NFC championship loss and gets its season back on track with a comfortable win. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-04-20 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -3 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 59 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout (Wednesday G.O.M.) is on Miami-Ohio at 7:00 ET. The Mid-American Conference became the first FBS conference to postpone the fall season because of concerns surrounding the coronavirus pandemic back on Aug 8 but 'reversed field' on Sep 25 by announcing that a season would be played, one which would feature a six-game, conference-only schedule. All 12 MAC schools will open the season Wednesday, Nov 4, and then play their next two games on Tuesdays or Wednesdays before transitioning to Saturdays for the final three weeks. Each team will play five division opponents and one crossover opponent in Week 1, with defending league champion Miami (Ohio) opening at home against Ball State. Mike Neu started at QB for four seasons at Ball State and as senior, led Ball State to the MAC championship (he was named the MAC MVP and Offensive Player of the Year) He was named the head coach at his alma mater on January 7, 2016 but has yet to having a winning season in four years. The Cardinals are 15-33 over under his tenure, including an 8-24 league record and a 6-18 record in all road games. Chuck Martin coached Grand Valley State (Division II school) from 2004 through 2009, going 74-7 in six seasons. He made the championship game three times, winning twice. He was the offensive coordinator at Notre Dame for the 2012 season, when the Fighting Irish finished the regular season with a 12–0 record and earned a berth in the BCS National Championship Game. It was announced on Dec 3, 2013, that Martin would be leaving his position at Notre Dame to take over as the head coach at Miami University for the 2014 season. He orchestrated a "methodical rebuild" in Oxford, resulting in the RedHawks beating Central Michigan 26-21 in the 2019 MAC championship, giving the school its first MAC title since 2010. Ball St led the MAC in scoring (34.8 PPG) and total offense (463.0 YPG) and QB Drew Pitt (64.3%, 2,918 yards / 24 TDs and 7 INTs). RB Caleb Huntley (1,275 yards on 5.1 YPC with 12 TDs) and WR Justin Hall (61 catches / 6 TDs) are all back. The defensive outlook is NOT as good, after the Cardinals allowed 31.4 PPG on 424.7 YPG. Miami QB Brett Gabbert is expected to build off a 'rookie season' in which he passed for 2,411 yards with 11 TDs and eight INTs (he was named MAC freshman-of-the-year). The OL has four returning starters and RB Jaylon Bester is back healthy for his senior year (741 yards and 14 TDs in 2019). The defense is solid by conference standards, allowing 28.1 PPG (4th) on 381.9 YPG (3rd). The these schools have met the last four seasons in their respective regular season finales but find themselves opening this COVID-shorted 2020 season. Note that after having beaten Ball St in 2016, 2017 and 2018, the RedHawks lost at Ball St 41-27 in 2019's regular-season finale. FYI...Miami had already clinched the East title and a berth in the MAC title game. Methinks that Miami will remember that loss and note that Miami was 5-0 at home in 2019 and will take an EIGHT-game home winning streak into this game. What's more, head coach Chuck Martin owns a 23-8 record in his last 31 MAC contest. 'Short' price. Lay it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-01-20 | Cowboys v. Eagles OVER 42.5 | Top | 9-23 | Loss | -105 | 101 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* SNF Magic play is my "Featured" Sunday total on Dal/Phi Over at 8:20 ET. The 2-5 Cowboys will be in Philadelphia on Sunday night to take on the 2-4-1 Eagles and believe it or not, the winners will enter Week 9 (mid-point of the NFL's 17-week schedule) with the division lead. That's what happens when one plays in the NFC East, as its four teams are a combined 7-20-1!). The Dallas Cowboys opened NFL 2020 with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green Bay) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherited what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owned just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. The current season has been an unmitigated disaster and now, following injuries to QB Dak Prescott and then Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci is expected to make his first start as QB of the Dallas Cowboys (more later). The Eagles fought through injuries in 2019 to capture the NFC East title with a 9-7 record, the second time they had won the NFC East in the last three seasons (qualified as a wild card in the other season). QB Carson Wentz entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of those last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday completing just 58.6% with 10 TDs and 10 INTs, which is tied for the most of any QB in the league with Kirk Cousins. His 74.3 QB rating is among the very worst of regular starters (more later). Ben DiNucci became the first player in Pennsylvania state history to throw for 4,000 yards in a season at Pine-Richland High School in suburban Pittsburgh. He led his team to a state title and was named Pennsylvania's Gatorade Player of the Year. He originally committed to Penn before switching to Pitt. After three seasons with the Panthers, DiNucci transferred to James Madison, an FCS program, and passed for 3,441 yards with 29 TDs and six interceptions in 2019. The Cowboys selected him with the 231st overall pick, the 11th QB taken. Now, here he is playing on SNF and if he can lead his team to a win, the Cowboys would regain first place in the sad-sack NFC East. It's not as if he doesn't have anything to work with. RB Elliott is not having a stellar season but he has run for 458 yards on 4.1 YPC with five TDs and has added 33 catches (hard to argue he's NOT a quality RB). Dallas has a trio of quality WRs in Cooper (53 catches / 2 TDs), Lamb (36 / 2 TDs) and Gallup, who may have just 19 catches but averages 19.5 YPC. TE Schultz isn't 'chopped liver,' catching 25 balls for two TDs. The problem is the Dallas D which is allowing a league-worst 34.7 PPG on 408.1 YPG. Philly receivers struggled to stay healthy last season and that's the case again in 2020. More bad news comes Philly's way with the news that RB Miles Sanders will miss this game with a knee injury, as he's the team's most versatile offensive player. That said, I'm not ready to give up on Wentz and he is going up against a REALLY bad Dallas defense. I agree that many key receivers are out but Fulgham has caught 21 passes (14.3 YPC and two TDs) the last three games, while fellow WR Ward has a team-high 29 catches on the season. TE Ertz is out but Rodgers stepped up with SIX catches in Philly's last game for 85 yards. What's more, TE Dallas Goedert (ankle) and rookie WR Jalen Reagor (thumb) have been activated from IR and could play. Against this Dallas D, Wentz is more than capable of putting up points. Remember, the Eagles scored 29 points at Pittsburgh, which has allowed the fewest yards in the league (286.3 YPG) and a modest 19.7 PPG. Getting back to DiNucci, he'll face a Philly defense allowing 28.0 PPG. Dallas is off a humiliating 25-3 loss at Washington last week and the Cowboys can't win here by relying on its defense. DiNucci wouldn't be the first "unknown" to surprise in his NFL debut and that's EXACTLY what I expect here. Getting back to Wentz, I expect him to deliver a season-best effort. Go OVER! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-01-20 | 49ers v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 27-37 | Win | 100 | 97 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET. The Seattle Seahawks came back from its bye week 5-0 but the team had been 'walking a tightrope' for most of those five games, as THREE of Seattle's five victories had come down to the game's final 15 seconds. Seattle entered its SNF contest in Arizona with a defense that had allowed a league-high 431.2 YPG. Seattle led 34-24 midway through the fourth quarter but couldn't hang on, as Murray drove the Cards 75 yards to close within three points with just 2;28 remaining. Seattle punted it back to Arizona, which tied the game with a 44-yard FG on the final play of regulation and won it with a FG in OT. 5-1 Seattle welcomes the 4-3 SF 49ers to CenturyLink Field this Sunday. The 49ers are not just defending NFC West champs but they are also defending NFC champs. The Niners opened 2-3 but have won two in a row (24-16 at home against the Rams and 33-6 at the Pats) to get back to 4-3. However, the 49ers still find themselves in last-place in the NFL's toughest division, behind the 5-2 Cards and Rams plus the 5-1 Seahawks. Safe to say, this is a big game for both teams. Jimmy Garoppolo was 20 of 25 for 277 yards in San Francisco's 33-6 rout of the Pats, in what was his first game against his former team. However, he didn't throw a TD and had three INTs. Leading rusher Mostert sat out with an injury but Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for a career-high three TDs and 112 yards but sustained a high left ankle sprain that landed him on injured reserve. TE Kittle is back from an early injury and has 31 catches in his last four games. The WR corps is mediocre at best and who knows who will be healthy among the RBs. The San Francisco defense is again playing well, allowing 19.4 PPG, the same it allowed in 2019 Russell Wilson was widely considered the front-runner for the NFL's MVP award through Week 6, as he had completed 72.8% for 1,502 yards while leading the league with 19 TD passes (just three INTs) and with a 129.8 QB rating. Wilson completed 33 of 50 passes for 388 yards and three TDs vs Arizona but he also had THREE costly interceptions. Wilson is also a key part of Seattle's rushing attack, running for 237 yards on 8.2 YPC. RB Carson adds a team-high 323 yards on 4.9 YPC and three TDs plus also has 22 receptions with three TDs. Lockett has 45 catches and a team-high seven TDs, while fellow WR Metcalf is the "big play" receiver, with 24 catches, a 21.6 YPC average and five TDs. The two-headed TE duo of Olsen and Dissly combine for 27 catches and two TDs. However, the defense had better get better, fast! "There were so many opportunities to win the football game," Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said of last Sunday's game, in which a 48-yard touchdown reception by DK Metcalf in overtime was wiped out by a penalty. "We've been in the situation where we count on things to happen in the right place, happen in the right situations and the right complementary play occurs, and we just missed it." QB Russell Wilson added, "I thought we played a great game except for those three plays. Those are my fault. There's so much that we can do, and we have so much confidence. Our confidence is not going to waver. They're a great football team, too. We knew it was going to be a battle." Except for a win over the Rams in Week 5, San Francisco's three other wins have come over the sad-sack Giants and Jets (a combined 1-13) and the Pats, who are beginning to look like a team 'going nowhere!' The 49ers come in with significant injuries on "both sides of the ball," while Russell Wilson comes off losing a game for the first time in his nine-year career when leading by four or more points at halftime. He had been 59-0 in such situations. I'm "all over" the Seahawks! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-01-20 | Steelers v. Ravens -3.5 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Month is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET. The Pittsburgh Steelers lost "Big Ben" in Week 2 of 2019 and missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season last year. However, the 38-year-old Roethlisberger is playing with a surgically repaired right elbow in 2020 and is "looking good!" When the Steelers beat the Eagles 38-29 in Week 5, it marked the first time Pittsburgh had opened 4-0 in 41 years (hard to believe but true!). The Steelers have tacked on two more wins since then, 38-7 at home to the Browns and 27-24 at Tennessee, in a 'battle' of unbeatens. When Seattle lost at Arizona in Week 7's SNF, Pittsburgh stood as the last remaining undefeated NFL team (6-0 and 5-1 ATS). The Steelers will carry that mantle into a game at Baltimore on Sunday with the Ravens, who are 5-1, losing only a MNF game to the KC Chiefs (anyone know if KC is any good?). The winner of Sunday's contest will move on as the AFC North's first place team, a game Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin labeled as the league's game of the week. Reasonable enough, don't you think. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-01-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Lions | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 79 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider (Week 8) is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET. The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA but while the veteran has completed 69.7% for 1,598 yards, he's thrown just seven TDs with six INTs. However, the 38-year-old veteran came to the rescue in Indy's last game, passing for 371 yards in a 31-27 win over Cincinnati in Week 6. The 4-2 Colts come off a bye week when they travel to Detroit to take on the 3-3 Lions, who have won back-to-back games for the first time since Weeks 2 and 3 of the 2019 season. The Lions beat the hapless Jaguars 34-16 in Week 6 and then edged the Falcons 23-22 last Sunday. Stafford passed for a season-high 340 yards against the Falcons, the first time he's reached the 300-yard mark this year. and also wasn't picked off for the second time this year. Most importantly, Stafford led the Lions on a 75-yard TD drive in just 1:04, capping it with an 11-yard TD pass on the game's final play. The extra-point gave Detroit the win. The Colts are really struggling with their running game, averaging a measly 98.0 YPG on an NFL-low 3.6 YPC. Rookie RB Taylor gets most of the carries and leads with 367 yards but with a modest 4.1 YPC average. While Rivers came up big in Indy's comeback win vs Cincy, he's NOT the Rivers of old and part of that is the team's mediocre at best, receiving corps. However, the Colts are allowing just 288.0 YPG, second to only Pittsburgh for fewest in the NFL. Indy leads the NFL in interceptions with 10 and the team's pass D ranks second-best by allowing 199.7 YPG through the air. As always, points allowed is the most important stat and the Colts allow 19.2 per game, 4th-best in the league. Stafford is used to putting up huge numbers but the Lions have only made three playoff appearances in his seasons prior to 2020. He enters this game 72-81-1 as a starting QB, not including his 0-3 playoff record. TE Hockenson leads with 22 catches and four TDs, although WR Golladay is rounding into form after recovering from a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the team's first two games. Golladay has exceeded the 100-yard mark in the last two victories and now has 20 catches (in four games), averaging 16.9 YPC with two TDs. However, Detroit's running game isn't much better than Indy's, averaging 108.5 YPG on 4.1 YPC. Adrian Peterson may be headed to the HOF but he's no longer an "impact player," rushing for 314 yards on just 3.9 YPC. On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions 27.5 PPG, more than EIGHT points higher than Indy has allowed. Yes, the Lions have won back-to-back games but those wins have come over 1-6 Jacksonville and 2-6 Atlanta. I noted that the last time Detroit had won back-to-back games was in Weeks 2 and 3 of 2019 and in the time between those two, 2-0 streaks, the Lions had gone 2-15 SU and 5-12 ATS. Indy's defense will be the difference in this one and it doesn't hurt that the Colts enter this contest 8-2-1 ATS in their recent matchups against NFC opponents. Detroit winning THREE in a row is too much to ask! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
11-01-20 | Titans v. Bengals +7 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The Tennessee Titans opened the season 3-0 and then a COVID-19 outbreak had their Week 4 showdown with the Steelers was rescheduled for Week 6. The team's Week 5 game with 4-0 Buffalo was pushed back to a Tuesday night and after winning their first three games by a combined margin of just NINE points (going 0-3 ATS), the Titans routed the Bills 42-16. Tennessee then won a 42-36 OT at Houston, before losing their first game of the season 27-24 to Pittsburgh, The Steelers led that game 27-7 in the late third quarter, before the Titans nearly sent the game to OT but Gostkowski missed a game-tying FG with just 19 seconds left. The Bengals were coming off a 2-14 season in 2019 but drafted Heisman-winner Joe Burrow with the first overall pick of the 2020 Draft, Head coach Zac Taylor is in just his second season but felt like Burrow was the type of QB the Bengals could build around. Cincy is just 1-5-1 but despite MANY flaws, the Bengals are 5-2 ATS and have been "right in" every game except their 24-3 loss at Baltimore. QB Tannehill has been terrific (68.5% / 1,590 yards with 15 TDs and two INTs / 112.3 QB rating) and RB Henry has been his usual self (663 yards / 4.6 YPC / 7 TDs) for the Titans. However, the Titans' D has NOT been good, allowing 401.8 YPG and 25.2 PPG. The team's 'stop unit' can't "make a stop" on third down, as opponents are converting 61 percent of the time, the worst mark for an NFL team in 30 years. Pittsburgh shown a light on just that last Sunday, converting 13 of 18 on third down tries. Joe Burrow gets little help from his running game (98.9 YPG on 3.7 YPC) and the team's only RB of note, Joe Mixon (428 yards), will miss a second straight game with a foot injury. The OL has allowed Burrow to be sacked 28 times but the rookie has still managed to complete 66.6% for 2,023 yards with nine TDs and five INTs. The defense is about as bad as Tennessee's, allowing 27.7 PPG on 395.1 YPG. However, except for that loss at Baltimore, the Bengals have beaten the Jags 33-25 at home, tied the Eagles 23-23 in Philly and and lost FOUR games by margins of just THREE, FIVE, FOUR and THREE points! The Titans have played just two road games in 2020, winning by 16-14 at Denver (2-4) and 31-30 at Minnesota (1-5). Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-31-20 | Ohio State v. Penn State +13 | Top | 38-25 | Push | 0 | 85 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Big Dog is on Penn St at 7:30 ET. Ohio St lost a razor-close game to Clemson (29-23) in last year's national semifinals and was ranked No. 2 in the AP's preseason poll, just behind No. 1 Clemson. Clemson got 38 first-place votes to Ohio State's 21 and the Buckeyes finished JUST four points shy of the Tigers' overall point-total. Penn St was 11-2 in 2019, finishing No. 7 in the AP's final poll. The Nittany Lions opened No. 7 in the preseason rankings but like Ohio St, didn't play its first game of 2020 until last Saturday. The two Big Ten rivals had vastly different results last weekend, as the Buckeyes routed the Cornhuskers 52-17, while the Nittany Lions were shocked at Indiana, with the Hoosiers pulling off a 36-35 upset in OT. Ohio St visits Happy Valley as the AP's No. 3-ranked team, while Penn St fell to No. 18. Ohio St QB Justin Fields comes off an excellent 2019 season (3,273 passing yards with 41 TDs and just three INTs plus 484 rushing yards with 10 TDs) and picked up right where he lost off last Saturday. He completed 20 of 21 (95.2%) for 276 yards with two TDs and no INTs, while running for 54 yards and adding a third TD on the day. He had two WRs top 100 yards, Wilson on seven catches (129) and Olave on six catches (104). Gone from last season's team is JK Dobbins and his 2,003 rushing yards (on 6.7 YPC with 21 TDs), so matching last season's near-perfect run/pass balance (267 RY / 263 PY) may be difficult. Fields led Ohio St in rushing yards in the game but the team did total 215 yards in 4.5 YPC. Ohio State allowed just 13.7 PPG on 260 YPG in 2019 but allowed Nebraska 370 yards last Saturday, although the 'Huskers only scored 17 points. The Nittany Lions were upset 36-35 at Indiana, as the Hoosiers tied the game with 22 seconds left in regulation on a TD and two-point conversion and then scored another TD and controversial two-pointer to win it in OT (I'd argue Indiana did NOT convert on its two-point try). Penn St allowed just 16.0 PPG on 346 YPG last season so some may ask, how did Indiana score 36 points? Well, I'd like to know how, as well. Penn St held Indiana to a total of just 211 total yards, including 41 rushing yards on 26 attempts (that's 1.6 YPC!). Junior QB Sean Clifford is off a solid sophomore season (2,654 yards with 23 TDs and 7 INTs plus 402 rushing yards and five TDs) and looked very good vs Indiana. He completed 24 of 35 for 238 yards with three TDs (two INTs didn't help) and also led the team with 119 rushing yards on 7.0 YPC and a TD. TE Freiermuth led with seven catches (one TD) and WR Dotson caught six balls for an average of 23.5 YPC with one TD. The running game ground out 250 yards on 4.8 YPC. With Penn State's loss to Indiana last week, Saturday's game between No. 3 Ohio State and No. 18 Penn State has lost some luster but DON'T tell that to Penn St. The Nittany Lions are staring at an 0-2 start for the first time since 2012 and with the specter of losing all championship hopes before November! Penn St beat Ohio St 24-21 here in 2016 but has lost each of the last three meetings. However, those Ohio St wins have been by scores of 39-38, 27-26 (at Penn St) and 29-17, which were all ATS wins by Penn St. I'm not convinced Penn St can pull the upset but feel VERY confident that the Nittany Lions will 'hang in' all game. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-31-20 | Texas +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 46 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Texas at 4:00 ET. Tom Herman made a HUGE 'splash' at Houston in 2015, leading the Cougars to a 13-1 season which included a 38-24 win over 9th-ranked Florida St as a seven-point underdog. He led Houston to a 9-3 record in 2016 but left before its bowl game to take over at Texas. He's led the Longhorns to THREE straight bowls but his overall record of 25-15 in that three-year span is underwhelming. Texas opened 2020 at 14th in the preseason poll. Mike Gundy took over at Stillwater in 2005 and the Cowboys were just 4-7. However, OSU achieved a winning record in each of the next 14 seasons, fashioning double-digit wins SIX times while going to 14 consecutive bowls (9-5). OSU began 2020 ranked 15th in the AP's preseason poll. Texas opened 2-0 this season but then lost back-to-back games against TCU and Oklahoma, dropping the Longhorns from No. 8 in the AP poll to unranked and on the outer edges of the Big 12 race. However, Texas rebounded for a 26-17 home win over Baylor last Saturday. QB Sam Ehlinger has been terrific, completing 61.6% for 1,481 yards with 17 TDs and just five INTs, as 11 different players have caught at least one TD pass. Texas has a WR trio of Moore (21 catches / 15.6 YPC / 6 TDs), Eagles (12 catches / 15.7 YPC / 3 TDs) and Black just eight catches but a 23.5 YPC) plus TE Wiley has six catches but a 24.5 YPC average. Ehlinger is the team's leading rusher as well with 293 yards on 4.5 YPC with seven TDs. A trio of RBs have added 510 rushing yards, as Texas averages 174.8 YPG on the ground (4.7 YPC). Oklahoma St welcomes Texas to Boone Pickens Stadium 4-0 (3-0 Big 12) and ranked No. 6 in the latest AP poll. OSU won three in a row but then had the team's Oct 17 contest with Baylor postponed after the Bears reported a COVID outbreak on their team. OSU was back on the field this past Saturday and beat then-No. 17 Iowa St 24-21. QB Spencer Sanders, who missed two games after suffering an ankle injury early in the opener against Tulsa, returned to complete 20 of 29 passes for 235 yards with one TD (did have two INTs) but also ran for 71 yards and a score. RB Chuba Hubbard carried 25 times for 139 yards for the Cowboys and now has topped 100 yards in THREE straight (478 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC with 5 TDs on the season). Fellow RB Brown has contributed 229 yards (6.2 YPC), as OSU averages 216.3 YPG on the ground. The Cowboys have typically been known for their explosive offenses but the Cowboys' D checks into this contest allowing just 12.0 PPG, 4th-best among FBS teams which have played at least four games. This is the 35th time the two teams have played (Longhorns own a 25-9 all-time edge) but Oklahoma State has won FOUR of the last five meetings and SEVEN of its last 10 games with the Longhorns. Texas did win 36-30 last year in Austin but the Longhorns haven't won in Stillwater since 2014. So why Texas? To stay relevant, the Longhorns NEED a statement win against Oklahoma State. "I think we're headed towards our 'A' game, and hopefully we can show up and deliver that in Stillwater because we're going to need it," Texas head coach Tom Herman said Monday. "We've got it in us. I know we do. We've been building towards it, for sure." The good news for Texas backers is that Herman's Houston and Texas teams are a money-making 16-6-1 ATS as an underdog, which includes 11 OUTRIGHT upsets. Texas needed OT to edge Texas Tech, then lost a two-point decision to TCU and then lost a 4-OT thriller to Oklahoma in a three-week span. The Longhorns returned from an off week to lead Baylor 27-3 before winning 27-16 in holding the Bears to only 316 yards. I'm with coach Herman in believing Texas will bring its "A" game to Stillwater. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-31-20 | LSU v. Auburn +3.5 | 11-48 | Win | 100 | 75 h 9 m | Show | |
My 10* CFB Game of the Month (Oct) is on Auburn at 3:30 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 3:00 ET Thursday afternoon. | |||||||
10-31-20 | Kansas State v. West Virginia -3 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 77 h 3 m | Show |
My 9* Eye Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET. Chris Klieman was working for Craig Bohl at North Dakota St and when Bohl left to take the Wyoming head coaching job, Klieman took over and won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2014 and '15, lost in the semis in 2016, and then won back-to-back again in 2017 and 2018. He left to take over at Kansas St in 2019, having gone 69-6 in a five-year span with FOUR national championships. He's the 35th head coach in Kansas St history and replaced the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats went 8-5 in 2019, including a 48-41 win at Oklahoma, as a 23 1/2-point underdog. The Wildcats lost their season opener of 2020 at home to Arkansas St (35-31 as more than a two-TD favorite) but have since gone 4-0 SU and ATS, including a second straight win over Oklahoma. The Wildcats beat the Sooners 38-35 as 28-point dogs, winning in Manhattan against Oklahoma for the first time since 1960. Neal Brown spent four years as the head coach at Troy. His first season saw his team go 4-8 but the next three seasons the Trojans went 31-8 overall, including winning all THREE bowl appearances. He was announced as the 35th head football coach of West Va on January 5, 2019 and after a 5-7 first season, the Mountaineers are off to a 3-2 start in 2020. The Mountaineers are coming off a 34-27 loss at Texas Tech but will enter the game as owners of the Big 12's stingiest defense. West Va ranks first in the Big 12 in total defense (261.8 YPG) and in scoring defense (21.8 PPG). Kansas State (currently No. 16 in the latest AP poll) has had a long tradition of excellence on special teams and heading into Saturday's game, the Wildcats have 55 TDs on kickoff or punt returns since 2005, the most in the FBS. Case in point, Phillip Brooks had two first-half punt-return TDs in K-State's 55-14 win over Kansas last week, earning Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week honors. His 189 punt return yards and two TDs were school records. He is the first player in Big 12 Conference history to return two punts for TDs in the same game. Starting QB Slylar Thompson (a senior) was lost for the season on Oct 3 with freshman Will Howard taking over. He looked only so-so in finishing up K-State's win over Texas Tech and then in a 21-14 win at TCU. However, he looked good last Saturday, completing 17 of 24 for 243 yards with two TDs and no INTs. Then again, the opponent was 0-5 Kansas. RB Deuce Vaughn is the team's offensive star, rushing for 309 yards (5.1 YPC with five TDs) and catching 17 passes in which he's averaged 27.7 YPC and added three more TDs. The K-State defense allowed 35 points in each of its first two games but has held opponents to just 16.3 PPG the last three. I noted above the solid play by West Va's defense and offensively, the Mountaineers have a solid QB in Doege, who is completing 64.1% for 1,389 yards with nine TDs and just three INTs. RB Leddie Brown has 592 yards, averaging 5.8 YPC with seven TDs plus has 19 receptions with two TD catches. WRs Wright (28) and James (23) are possession-type receivers, while Ford-Wheaton has just 13 catches but averages 15.2 YPC with three TDs. I'm not sure about Kansas St QB Howard, while his counterpart (Doege) has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of the last two games. K-State's offense will get its toughest test this season against the West Va D and note that West Va has won FOUR straight against Kansas St including THREE in a row ATS. The unranked team is favored for a reason. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-30-20 | Hawaii v. Wyoming +2 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 63 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Game of the Month is on Wyoming at 9:45 ET. The MWC originally decided to cancel fall football in August but had a change of heart, ala the Big Ten. MCA and Pac 12. The Mountain West released its full 2020 football schedule detailing a plan for most of its 12 schools to play eight league games in an eight-week span starting Oct 24. The plan is to play a conference championship game on Dec 19. The league has abandoning its divisional structure this season, meaning the participants in the championship game will be the two teams with the highest conference winning percentage. Hawaii opened its season last Saturday with a 34-19 win at Fresno St and Wyoming lost 37-34 in OT at Nevada. It's Hawaii vs Wyoming Friday night in Laramie. Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich left after last season to take the Washington St job and Hawaii hired Todd Graham on January 21, 2020 to become the 24th head football coach in the school history. Graham coached at Rice for one year and then left days after signing an extension to take the Tulsa job. He spent four years there and left for Pittsburgh, where he stayed just one season, leaving controversially for Arizona St. He spent six years at ASU and had been away from college football for two years when he took the Hawaii job. The Rainbow Warriors rolled up 552 yards (323 on the ground on 6.1 YPC) in a 15-point win in their season-opener. QB Cordeiro threw for 229 yards (two TDs) and ran for a team-high 116 yards (8.9 YPC) and another two TDs. However, the defense allowed Fresno St 409 yards but also forced FOUR turnovers (three INTs). Craig Bohl spent 12 years at North Dakota St where he went 104-32, winning FCS national championships in his final three years (2011-13). His first two Wyoming teams went 6-18 but he's won EIGHT games in three of the last four seasons (exception was 6-6 season in 2018), with Wyoming going 'bowling' three times (won the last two). Returning QB Sean Chambers broke his left fibula on the Cowboys' third play from scrimmage against Nevada last week and the redshirt sophomore is out for the season. Levi Williams, who played in three games last season, finished the game going 16 of 31 for 227 yards with one TD and one INT plus ran for two TDs The Cowboys trailed 28-6 in the late second quarter last Saturday but tied the game at 28-all with 8 1/2-minutes to go. Nevada took a 31-28 lead but Wyoming sent the game into OT on a FG with 23 seconds left, before losing in OT. Todd Graham has a checkered past but he's led his teams to 10 bowl berths in his 12 years as a head coach. Hawaii is on the mainland for the second straight week plus I really liked what I saw from Wyoming QB Williams. He led an impressive comeback that just fell short. In Xazavian Valladay (1,265 yards on 5.1 YPC in 2019) he has one of the MWC's best RBs, who ran for a modest 87 yards last Saturday but also caught SEVEN passes. The schools are meeting for just the 5th time as MWC foes, with the home team having gone 4-0 SU. I expect that trend to follow here, as Wyoming was 6-0 SU at home in 2019 and enters this contest with an EIGHT-game winning streak at War Memorial Stadium. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-27-20 | Rays +130 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the TB Rays at 8:08 ET. Following Tampa Bay's improbable 8-7 Game 4 win, the Dodgers took Game 5 by a 4-2 score and now stand ONE win away from the team's first World Series title since 1988. LA staked Clayton to a quick 3-0 lead scored twice in the third to close within a run. Then came the game-turning bottom of the 4th. The Rays had first and third with no outs but Kershaw got a pop up and a strike out. Then, instead of relying on a two-out hit from Kevin Kiermaier, Margot broke for home. Kershaw stepped off the rubber and got the ball to Barnes just in time. The Dodgers extended the lead to 4-2 in the 5th and three LA relievers pitched 3.1 scoreless innings to seal the win. The Game 6 pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 2, when Blake Snell takes on Tony Gonsolin. The Rays staked Snell to a 5-0 lead and he didn't allow a hit through four innings, while striking out two Dodgers in each of the first four innings. However, Snell's dreams of a no-hitter ended in the 5th. He walked Kiké Hernandez with two out and served up a two-run HR to Chris Taylor. A walk to Mookie Betts and a single by Corey Seager ended Snell's night. However, four relievers held off the Dodgers, allowing two runs over 4.1 innings, as Tampa Bay evened the Series at one-all with a 6-4 victory. Snell won the Cy Young in 2018 but was a modest 4-2 in the 2020 regular season with a 3.24 ERA over 11 starts (Rays were 7-4). In five starts during this postseason, Snell is 2-2 with a 3.33 ERA (Rays are 3-2) I found the choice of starting Gonsolin in Game 2 a little strange. He was 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in nine games (eight starts / team was 5-3) during the regular season. However, in his two outings this postseason against Atlanta, he'd allowed SEVEN earned runs in 6.1 innings for a 9.95 playoff ERA. Gonsolin threw just 41 pitches in a Game 7 (allowed two runs in two innings) in which the Dodgers won 4-3 to complete their comeback from being in an 0-3 'hole' against the Braves. he was pitching on just two days' rest in Game 2 of the World Series and got just four outs, throwing 29 pitches while allowing a solo HR and one walk. He hasn't pitched since, so he takes the mound well-rested but having allowed eight ERs over just 7.2 postseason innings in 2020, on six hits with almost as many walks (7) as strikeouts (9). His ERA is 9.39 and his WHIP is 1.70. Up 3-2, LA is a strong favorite to the series, with emerging ace Walker Buehler waiting to pitch on full rest in Game 7. However, I'll discuss a Buehler/Morton rematch on Wednesday, AFTER the Rays win Game 6 on Tuesday. Good luck...Larry |
Service | Profit |
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William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |