Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-05-21 | Bruins v. Islanders +124 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 124 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* EAST-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Islanders. This has been a competitive, back and forth series. Boston won Game 1 by a score of 5-2. New York then won Game 2 by a score of 4-3 in overtime, before Boston then won here in Game 3 by a score of 2-1 in OT. Now it's time for the Islanders to respond in Game 4 and before this series shifts back to Boston. These teams regular season numbers on both ends of the ice are very even. Boston was great over the second half of the season, while New York was consistent from start to finish. The Islanders were especially good at home as well, going 23-5-2-2 there so far. New York has also responded well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge an OT home loss to an opponent (one other strong/current trend to point out is that the Isles are 4-1 in their last five as a home dog.) I love New York in this spot, and getting it as an underdog at home is the proverbial "icing on the cake." The play is the Islanders. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-05-21 | Indians v. Orioles -111 | 10-4 | Loss | -111 | 23 h 21 m | Show | |
9* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Orioles. I had a play on the Orioles last night, and they ended up winning 3-1 as a slight dog. Now they're a slight favorite, and I believe for good reason. In fact, I think that the O's could be even bigger favs here. The inconsistent visiting side hands the ball to Aaron Civale (7-2, 3.28 ERA), who enters off his worst start of the season, allowing four runs with one strikeout over six innings. Civale is starting to regress, as both of his losses have occurred over the last four games, and he's conceded at least four runs each time. The ten hits he gave up last time out were also a season-worst. Civale is trending in the wrong direction. Baltimore looks to build momentum now and hands the ball to ace John Means (4-1, 2.05), who allowed three runs while striking out four over five innings in Saturday's Game 2 of a double-header vs. the hard-hitting White Sox. It was his first loss of the year. Look for Means to continue his red-hot season here in this favorable matchup and improve upon his minuscule 0.80 WHIP thus far. As I stated off the top, I do definitely think this line could/should in fact be larger. Great value here on the hungry Orioles. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-04-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights +100 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Knights. Let's just wheel out the Stanley Cup right now and present it to the Avalanche. Right? They're unstoppable?! That's actually so far been the case, as Colorado swept the Blues in four games to open up, while also taking both games at home over the Knights. Clearly, Las Vegas was gassed after its seven game series win over the Wild, as it then got blown out 7-1 in Game 1 of this series. But the Knights took Game 2 to overtime before losing, and now I think they'll put it all together and get back into this series with a big win at home. Colorado pounced on a tired Golden Knights team, but now the tables have turned. The Avalanche are fatigued and the Las Vegas has a chance to rally in its own building. Note that Vegas was 23-6-1-2 here during the regular season. These teams sport almost identical numbers on both ends of the ice, but the Knights still lead the league defensively, conceding just 2.14 GPG. Las Vegas is also 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge an OT road loss against an opponent. I think Colorado finally has its letdown here against a desperate Knights team that'll be throwing everything it has at the Avs here to avoid the 0-3 hole. Great price, the play is Las Vegas. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-04-21 | Clippers v. Mavs OVER 216.5 | Top | 104-97 | Loss | -101 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the OVER Clippers/Mavericks. This has been a highly entertaining series. Dallas has played better than most thought it would and it has a golden opportunity here to close out the Clippers. LA won't have the luxury here to sit back and play aggressive defense, instead it'll have to force the tempo here and outshoot this red hot Mavericks offense if it has any chance of extending this series to a seventh game. Situationally in my opinion, this one absolutely sets up as a "run-and-gun" shootout, rather than a grind it out "chess match." Each team is filled with offensive talent, and note that the Clippers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of their last 14 in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 100 points or less in. With each team pushing the pace, look for this one to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. The play is indeed the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-04-21 | Astros v. Blue Jays -125 | Top | 13-1 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
10* AL GAME OF THE MONTH on the Blue Jays. Houston was busy losing 5-1 in Boston yesterday afternoon, while Toronto had the day off after beating the Marlins 6-5 on the road in its most recent action. As good as Zack Grienke has been this year for the Astros, Hyun-Jin Ryu has been even better though for the Jays. And at this price at home, I absolutely like Toronto in this spot. Greinke (5-2, 3.67 ERA) gave up one run over eight innings in a victory over the Padres on Sunday. Over 73.2 innings of work he owns a decent 57/15 K/W. Ryu (5-2, 2.62) won a rain-shortened contest last time out, allowing two runs with five strikeouts over five innings. So far Ryu has a sharp 58/8 K/W over 58.1 innings of work. Ryu though has absolutely been at his best at home this year, entering this contest having gone 2-0 with a minuscule 0.90 ERA here so far this season. I like the way this one sets up for the Jays scheduling wise, and I believe they also have the superior starting pitcher on the hill to open. As stated off the top, at this price the Jays are absolutely the play in this contest. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-04-21 | Indians v. Orioles +110 | 1-3 | Win | 110 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Orioles. Cleveland's been off since June 1st after beating the White Sox 6-5 on the road. The Tribe have won two in a row, but I think they're going to stumble here in the opener of this four-game series vs. this hungry home side, that's coming off a 6-3 victory at Minnesota in latest action. After eight straight losses, the Orioles have now won two in a row. Clearly Baltimore can ill afford to come in complacent or satisfied. This game features two rookie starters, but it's a matchup that I believe favors the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Jean Carlos Mejia, who had his debut postponed last time out due to inclement weather vs. the White Sox. Over two starts in Triple-A he posted a pedestrian 10/5 K/W. The home side counters with Keegan Akin (0-0, 4.80), who is looking for his first win still after allowing just one run with four strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to the White Sox on Sunday. Over 15 innings in the big leagues, the 26-year old now has a great 14/2 K/W. Look for Akin to get that first win here and outduel his untested counterpart. The play is Baltimore. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-04-21 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 6.5 | 2-1 | Win | 101 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
9* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the UNDER Nationals/Phillies. I'm expecting a bit of a "duel" here between the Nationals and Max Scherzer and the PHillies and Zack Wheeler. Washington lost 5-1 at home to the Braves yesterday, while Philadelphia has had two whole nights off after a 17-3 win at Cincinnati on June 1st. Scherzer (4-4, 2.34 ERA), gave up two runs while striking out ten over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the Brewers on Sunday. To go along with his sparkling ERA, Scherzer also sports a tiny 0.82 WHIP over 69.1 innings of work. He's a big reason why I like this under today. His counterpart is Wheeler (2-0, 2.52 ERA), who gave up three runs while striking out 14 over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Rays on Saturday. Over 21.1 innings of work Wheeler owns a great 36/3 K/W. Wheeler is another big reason why I love this under. Look for these two red hot starting pitchers to battle in the latter frames, and as a result of that, expect this total to stay well under the posted number. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-03-21 | Suns v. Lakers -2 | Top | 113-100 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
10* ROUND 2 GAME OF THE YEAR on the Lakers. The question is. Can LeBron James dig deep here and rally whatever teammates he has around him to beat Chris Paul and Devin Booker at home here in Game 6? The Suns rode 30 points from Booker to a big 115-85 win in Game 5. James had 24 points and seven assists for the Lakers. Andre Drummond and Dennis Schroder were absolute "no shows" though for the Lakers, and I do expect a much better effort from each here at home. You simply can't count out King James in big games. He's also never lost a first round series in his career. Clearly, this is the Lakers biggest game of the year. I just don't think the Suns have the experience to take out the defending champs on their own floor, especially with the knowledge that they have one last chance in their own building to finish it. Phoenix has actually also been an absolute train-wreck in this spot for bettors, going just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six on the road and a terrible 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven following a win of more than ten points. LA on the other hand is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. I say "The King" has enough left in the tank to push this series to a Game 7. Lay the points, the play is the Lakers. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-03-21 | Cubs v. Giants -125 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 53 m | Show |
10* NL GAME OF THE MONTH on the Giants. The Giants had their four-game win streak snapped in an 8-1 setback at the Angels two nights ago. The Cubs cross the country for this game red hot, as they've won nine of their last ten. That includes a 6-1 victory and series sweep of the Padres yesterday. After six-straight home victories though, I think that the Cubs finally have their let-down here against this focussed home side. Chicago hands the ball to Zach Davies (2-2, 4.65 ERA) who gave up one run over five innings in a no-decision to the Cards in his last outing. Davies has been fantastic of late, but his performance on the road certainly has to be called into question, as he's 0-1 with a ballooned 6.56 ERA away from "The Friendly Confines." Anthony DeSclafani (4-2, 3.56) is off a no-decision to the Angels, allowing two runs over five innings. DeSclafani has been as solid as San Francisco could possibly have hoped for so far this year, and note that he's allowed no more than three earned runs in any of his ten starts. With an extra day off to prepare, I look for the rested home side to get the job done in the series opener. Great price too. The play is San Francisco. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-03-21 | Tigers +195 v. White Sox | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
8* FALSE FAVORITE on the Tigers. Lance Lynn is have an unbelievable year, but at some point regression is going to creep in. After having his start delayed yesterday, I think his rythym will be disrupted, and that leaves the door open here for Casey Mize (3-3, 3.28 ERA) and the hungry Tigers. Who actually come to town in their best form of the season. The Tigers have won four of their last five, including a 10-7 victory at Milwaukee two days ago. Mize gave up one run with no walks while striking out seven over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the Yankees on Friday. Over 57.2 innings of work Mize has a very respectable 1.11 WHIP, to go along with 47 strikeouts. Listen, it's difficult to say anything negative about Lynn whatsoever. He was solid last year as well. I just don't trust the White Sox bullpen, or their line-up right now. I believe Mize can match Lynn inning for inning, and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the undervalued underdog in my opinion. Look for Mize and the Tigers to sneak away with a victory here in the opener of this three game series. The play is Detroit. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-03-21 | Hurricanes +138 v. Lightning | Top | 3-2 | Win | 138 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Hurricanes. This has been a tight series, but Tampa has a 2-0 lead. The Lightning have played unbelievable defense, considering they struggled somewhat on that end of the ice in their opening series. The Hurricanes seem to be struggling to find energy after their six-game series win over the Predators, four of those games saw overtime. But with its back against the wall here and looking to avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole, I look for Carolina to dig deep here and post a big winning upset effort on the road in Tampa. Carolina scored three goals or more in all six games against the Prdators. It also allowed two goals or less in three of the six games against the Predators. The Lightning are among the best in every offensive and defensive statistical category, but the Hurricanes numbers are almost identical in every regard. I say that the Hurricanes bounce-back here and it's Tampa that will now come in with "heavy legs" after the satisfying back-to-back road victories. The pressure is on this talented Carolina team, which is 7-3 in its last ten in trying to avenge two straight home losses to an opponent. I don't expect Carolina to get swept in this series. Look for the Hurricanes to get back into it with an upset win in Game 3. The play is Carolina. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-03-21 | Rangers v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
8* IL SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Rangers/Rockies. This game features the volatiel Mike Foltynewicz (1-5, 4.31 ERA) going for the Rangers, and Austin Gomber (3-5, 4.55) getting the nod for the home side. Gomber enters off a loss to the Pirates, allowing three runs over four innings. Somehow Gomber has posted an elite record at Coors Field, and struggled on the road, going 1-1 with a 1.91 ERA in Colorado, and 2-4 with a 5.44 ERA everywhere else. Coors Field though is the "Great Equalizer" when it comes to starting pitching and I expect regression here. Foltynewicz has for the most part struggled this season. He gave up two runs over seven innings and still lost to the Mariners in his last outing. The Rangers are a bad team. Texas has now lost eight in a row and it's seen the total go under in six straight. And that's worth nothing, as the Rangers have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight unders in a row. I have no faith in either of these starting pitchers and with each getting the hook early, we can finally expect this total to blast past the posted number. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-02-21 | Mavs v. Clippers -7 | Top | 105-100 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
10* LEGEND on the Clippers. Dallas won the first two games. LA won the last two games. So far home-court advantage has been anything but in this series, but I expect that trend to end here. The Clippers come in off a dominant 106-81 win in Game 4, as Dallas star Luka Doncic has just 19 points, while teammate Kristaps Porzingis added 18. Doncic had a neck strain that clearly affected his play and one has to wonder what his current form is here as well? Kawhi Leonard has had a fire lit under him and now the Clippers are in "kill mode." Leonard has 29 points on 11 of 15 shooting in the Game 4 victory. LA looked great on the defensive end and in the transition game and with Doncic still ailing, I see an exact repeat of Game 4 occurring here in Game 5 as well. The Clippers now clearly have the momentum back in this series and I expect them to ride the wave. Look for LA to jump out to an early lead, and to never take the foot off the gas until it hears that final buzzer. Lay the points, the play is the Clippers. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-02-21 | Canadiens v. Jets -129 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -129 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER On the Jets. Will rest lead to rust for the Winnipeg Jets here, who have been waiting for their opponent for a week after dispatching the Oilers in four games? I say no. I say the extra time off here will only help Winnipeg at this point of the season. Colorado had a few extra days off between its first and second series and it destroyed the Golden Knights 7-1 in their first game of the second round, after Vegas went to seven games to advance past Minnesota. The Habs had to fight back from a 3-1 hole to beat the Leafs and are clearly now physically and emotionally drained. I can't see the Canadiens coming out with any energy here whatsoever. The Jets are also 4-0 their last four at home, while the Canadiens are just 6-15 in their last 21 following a victory. The Canadiens have proven that they can't be taken lightly, and I don't expect the Jets to do that at all. Instead, I believe Winnipeg will be out to set an early tone in this series and take advantage of this fatigued Montreal team. Great price, the play is the Jets. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-02-21 | Rays v. Yankees -125 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Yankees. New York broke a four-game slide with a 5-3 extra-innings win in Game 2 of this four-game series against the AL East leading Rays and I like it to keep the momentum rolling here in what I believe is a favorable matchup of starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to Shane McClanahan (2-0, 3.29 ERA), who admittedly has looked strong in is limited time. And when I say limited, I mean limited. This is his fourth career start here today. He has a strong 32/7 K/W over 27.1 innings, but the book is still out on the rookie, as the sample size is still much too small in my opinion. His counterpart today is veteran Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 4.22) who earned a no-decision after a shaky outing last time out, givin gup three runs over five innings against the hard-hitting Jays. Montgomery hasn't been perfect this year, but he's consistently been at his best on this field this year, going 1-1 with a 3.08 ERA at home. It's been a miserable stretch for Yankees fans, but with a chance to take back-to-back games against their No. 1 rival, I think Montgomery is the correct call here, as everything points to regression from McClanahan finally. Lay the reasonable price, the play is New York. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-01-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes -111 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -111 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Hurricanes. Game 1 was evenly matched. Tampa had a couple extra days off between series though, and that likely was the difference-maker in the end for the defending champs in their eventual 2-1 victory. I'm not reading too much into Carolina's lacklustre Game 1 offensive performance. They Canes came into that contest average 3.15 GPG in the playoffs and they were just tired and emotionally drained from their six-game series win over the Predators, four of those contests seeing OT. But now Carolina is ready to respond here in my opinion. Note, I actually had Tampa in the first game, but I do expect a letdown here finally. Previous to their Game 1 win, the Bolts had been struggling somewhat on the defensive end of the ice. They caught a tired Hurricanes team "off guard" in Game 1, but I don't expect that to happen twice. Look for Carolina to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes tonight as it looks to even things back up in this series before it shifts to Tampa. Great price, the play is Carolina. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-01-21 | Celtics +12.5 v. Nets | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 20 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Cetlics. I don't think that Jayson Tatum and the Celtics will go down without a fight. The Nets are obviously a really difficult team to play against with three bonafide superstars that can score at will. Tatum is averaging 30.3 points and five boards in the playoffs. Marcus Smart and Evan Fournier have experience, and note that Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it conceded 135 or more points in (lost 141-126 last time out.) Tue Nets were unbelievably efficient with their shooting in Game 4, but despite the victory, they did struggle on the defensive end. Outright victory? I'm definitley not calling for that. But I'll point out that the Celtics are a strong 9-3 ATS in their last 12 on the road. I say the Nets have a small mental letdown here, leaving the backdoor open just enough for the hungry visiting side to comfortably sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-01-21 | Rays v. Yankees +110 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 110 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
10* FALSE-FAVORITE on the New York Yankees. After getting swept by the Tigers in three games, and dropping the opener of this series yesterday by a score of 3-1, I believe that the Yankees will dig deep here and find a way to get back into the win column. The Rays hand the ball to Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.57 ERA), who went eight scoreless against the Royals on Wednesday, striking out 11. Previous to that gem he coughed up five runs over 4.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Jays. Domingo German (4-3, 3.06) enters off a loss to Toronto, allowed two earned runs, while striking out five over six innings. Tampa's the hottes team in MLB, and it's 7-3 here now in the season series with New York. Clearly the Yanks are the more "motivated" team today. The Yankees are also 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less runs in. I say that Tampa finally has a letdown here, and the hungrier home side delivers with this great price. The play is the Yankees. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies +5.5 | 120-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Grizzlies. Memphis rode the wave from its two "play in" victories to an upset road victory at Utah in Game 1, but since then it's been the Jazz which has been the better team in this series. Donovan Mitchell didn't play for Utah in Game 1, but he's been key in its success over the last two games. Now, it's the Grizzlies turn to respond. The outright victory is definitely possible in my opinion. Memphis has already proven it can beat this Jazz team outright. This will be the Grizzlies "best shot," as a 3-1 hole heading back to Utah is going to be just too much for this young team to climb out of. Despite the Game 3 setback, note that Memphis is still 10-4 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog. Utah shot nearly 50 percent from the floor in Game 3. That's amazing. I don't see that happening again here. It also hit 19 three pointers. That's also not going to happen again. This is a "must win" game for the Grizz and while they may not pull off the outright upset, everything in my opinion points to this one being a "nail-biter." Grab the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-31-21 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
8* SITUATIONAL POWER-PLAY on the Leafs (PUCKLINE). Toronto is the better team that's just been outplayed by a desperate Canadiens team the last two games. It's difficult to beat a team three times in a row. This Game 7 sets up exactly the same way in which the Knights and Wild just played. Minnesota clawed back and won two straight to push to a Game 7, and then the Knights destroyed the Wild 6-2. I had a big 10* +165 winner on the Knights in that one on the puck line. And that's what I'm suggesting to do here as well. Toronto has major advantages on both ends of the ice. It also has the Game 7 home ice advantage as well. Finally, note that the Leafs are 7-1 in their last eight in trying to avenge back-to-back losses against an opponent. I don't only expect the Leafs to win Game 7 of this opening round playoff series, I expect them to win BIG. The play is Toronto on the puckline. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-31-21 | Angels v. Giants -130 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
7* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER on the Giants. Both teams come in hot. Both of these starting pitchers though don't. One is struggling, while the other has done well. The Angels' Dylan Bundy (0-5, 6.50 ERA), most recently was rocked for four runs off five hits over 2.1 innings in a fortuate no-decision against the A's on Sunday. Bundy owns a respectable 45/18 K/W, but note that he's consistently been at his worst in this position all season, going 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA in all "day" games. As I mentioned, both teams are hot. For me this comes down to the starting pitchers though and Johnny Cueto (3-1, 3.86) is going to be the correct call. Cueto has to be feeling confident here, as he's 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA lifetime in four starts against LA (Bundy is 1-1 with a 4.66 ERA lifetime against the Giants.) I like Cueto here and I believe he should in fact be a larger favorite. The play is San Francisco. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-30-21 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 222 | Top | 106-81 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the UNDER Clippers/Mavericks. After the Clippers fought from behind to take Game 3, this series has suddenly become a lot more interesting. The Mavericks rolled to two straight road victories in LA to open this series, but the Clippers dug deep and managed to earn the Game 3 victory. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George haven been fantastic for the Clippers, but it was LA's aggressive defensive play in the second half of Game 3 which was the difference-maker, and I do now expect the visitors to carry that momentum over here. Dallas is going to have to find a way to slow down Leonard and George, or their two-game advantage is going to slip away quickly. One thing to note is that the Mavericks have in fact seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenage a ten points or greater SU/ATS home loss against an opponent. While the last two games have flown over the number, Game 4 sets up as a defensive affair in my opinion. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-30-21 | Lightning -105 v. Hurricanes | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Lightning. These teams are evenly matched, but I think the defending champs will find a way to deliver in Game 1 of this series. Tampa averaged 3.2 GPG in the regular season, but with Nikita Kucherov returning for the playoffs, the Lightning seem unstoppable right now. Andrei Vasilevskiy wasn't the greatest in the opening round, but he has the track record and pedigree to return to form here. I think Carolina comes in "gassed" here after its six-game series win over the Predators which saw four of the games going to OT. Tampa's the more rested team, and in my opinion, that matters right now. The Lightning are a sharp 11-4 in their last 14 when playing with three or more days rest and I expect this strong trend to continue here. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Tampa. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-30-21 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
10* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Giants/Dodgers. This is the finale of a four-game series. The Dodgers took the first game by a score of 4-3, and that total went under the number, but San Francisco has taken the next two, winning 8-5 and 11-6. Both of those went well over the posted number. But with each team's "ace" on the hill tonight, I expect this total to fall under when it finishes. San Francisco hands the ball to Kevin Gausman (5-0, 1.53 ERA), who went five shutout innings in a victory over Arizona on Tuesday, striking out nine in the process. Over 64.2 innings of work, Gausman has conceded only 11 runs. LA looks to bounce back with Clayton Kershaw (7-3, 2.94) getting the start. Kershaw most recently allowed one run over eight innings in a win over Hosuton on Tuesday, walking no one and striking out six. To go along with his sharp ERA, he also sports a minuscule 0.90 WHIP and a 71/10 K/W over 64.1 innings of work. The Dodgers have also seen the total go under the number in seven of their last nine home games in trying to avenge a home loss against an opponent in which they allowed ten or more runs in. I'm banking on these two World class starting pitchers to grab the majority of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-29-21 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
10* SLUG-FEST OF THE MONTH on the OVER Rangers/Mariners. While yesterday's game stayed under the posted total in Seattle's 3-2 win (I had a free play victory on the M's in that one), everything points to more of a "slug-fest" on Saturday. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Mike Foltynewicz (1-4, 4.53 ERA), who comes in off his best start of the season, going seven scoreless against Houston. Consistency from game-to-game has been Foltynewic's major issue the last couple of seasons though. Also note that he's a poor 1-2 with a ballooned 6.43 ERA in all "night" games this season. Justin Dunn (1-2, 3.40) gets the nod for the home side, and he most recently gave up one run over five innings in a no-decision against the Padres. Dunn has been effective, but he's struggled to go deep into games. Also note that he's 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA in all "night" games. Texas has also seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs in. Look for these starters to "get the hook" early, and then expect that to help in driving this total over the number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-29-21 | Islanders +160 v. Bruins | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Islanders. I think that the Islanders are going to "stun" the Bruins in Game 1. These team's offense and defensive numbers are very similar. New York averages only 2.71 GPG, which ranks 21st, but it makes up for it on the other end by conceding just 2.23 GPG, which ranks second. Boston averages 2.93 GPG, which ranks 14th, while allowing 2.39, which ranks fifth. Both are filled with experienced veteran talent, but I'm not buying into the "home ice" advantage here. Note that the Islanders have performed well in this spot for bettors as well by going 7-3 in their last ten as a road dog in the +160 to +175 range. New York faced a powerful Penguins offense, and it looked dominant in its series victory. I say the Islanders have more than enough to earn a split over these first two games in Boston, and I say they take Game 1 and STUN the home side in the process. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-29-21 | Yankees v. Tigers +1.5 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
8* RUNLINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Tigers. Detroit won this series opener for a score of 3-2 in extra-innings last night and I expect another competitive battle here as well. The Tigers definitely have the superior starting pitcher in this matchup as well in my opinion. The visitors go with Deivi Garcia (0-1, 4.50 ERA), who returns to the Yanks after getting called up from Triple-A Scranton. Corey Kluber is now on the IL, so this move was done out of necessity obviously. Note that Garcia struggled in four Triple-A outings, posting a 5.17 ERA and 1.64 WHIP over 15.2 innings. Spencer Turnbull (3-2, 3.12) gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Tribe in his last outing. Over 21.1 innings of work Turnbull has conceded just four runs, while also posting 19 strikeouts. Turnbull has gotten progressively better with each outing, and there's no reason not to think that he can't keep the good times rolling here with another solid performance against this struggling Yanks' line-up. At this price, I love the home side on the run line here. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-29-21 | Padres -138 v. Astros | 11-8 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
9* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Padres. At some point Padres' ace Yu Darvish (5-1, 1.75 ERA) is going to have a letdown, but I'm not expecting that to happen here. This is a favorable matchup for Darvish and the visiting Padres and I believe they'll make the most of it, and build on yesterday's convincing 10-3 victory. Darvish picked up the win against the Mariners in his last outing, allowing one run with five strikeouts over seven innings (he's been particularly effective on the road as well, going 2-0 with a 1.00 ERA.) His counterpart is Jake Odorizzi (0-2, 10.13) who returns to the Astros rotation after a lengthy stint on the IL. Odorizzi struggled over his first few starts before getting injured, and while he'll surely be much better on his return, he'll still be on a short leash here. This favors Darvish for sure, who I expect to easily outduel Odorizzi. And that's enough for me to swing the pendulum enough in the Padres favor to ultimately pull the trigger on this road chalk. Lay it, and expect a blowout. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-29-21 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 120-103 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER on the Heat. Will Miami storm back and win four games in a row? Almost assuredly not. The Heat surprised everyone last season with their timely run to the Finals, but since then they've struggled to gain that same consistency. Milwaukee has played very well to this point, but not spectacularly. Miami though has for sure struggled across the board, which is uncharacteristic over three sraight games. Despite their win last time out though, note that Giannis and company are still just 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road. And despite losing Game 3, note that the Heat are still 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight at home. I say Jimmy Butler and the Heat don't go down without a fight today. This is a proud organization, filled with experienced talent and while the outright may not occur, everything does point to this one being decided by whichever of these team's has its hands on the ball last. In a scenario like that, I'm grabbing the points every time. The play is Miami and the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-28-21 | Clippers -129 v. Mavs | Top | 118-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 20 m | Show |
10* MONEYLINE PERFECT STORM on the Clippers. This series hasn't gone the way many predicted. Sure, some would have predicted that the Mavericks would be able to take one of the first two games in LA to open up this series, but not many would have had Dallas taking both. Now, with their backs against the wall, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and the Clippers will have to fight tooth and nail to get back into this series and to avoid another massive playoff upset. The Clippers actually lost both final regular season games to avoid having to play the Lakers, a decision which doesn't look the greatest at the moment. LA has struggled on the defensive end over the first two games, but that's very uncharacteristic, as the Clippers were fourth overall on that side of the courst during the regular season. The Clippers also lead the league in three-point shooting, but over the first two games they've also uncharacteristically struggled from range. I believe LA will make the necessary adjustments to "return to the norm" on both the defensive end tonight, and with its shooting performance. Luka Doncic and the Mavericks had a letdown in the playoffs last year after Kristaps Porzingis went down with injury and while they've looked great over these first two games, a letdown is imminent in my opinion. As note, Dallas is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS road victories. One last stat I'll point out is that LA has done very well in this building for bettors, going 6-2 ATS in its last eight here. With their season essentially on the line here, I like the Clippers to find a way to get the job done. Avoid the spread, the play is LA on the money-line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-28-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 165 | 29 h 34 m | Show |
10* PUCK-LINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Golden Knights. The Golden Knights are big favorits in Game 7. The Wild have earned back-to-back victories, including a commanding 3-0 victory in Game 6, but I believe Minnesota will now be "gassed" and I expect the opportunistic Knights to take full advantage. Las Vegas has been outplayed over these last two games, but it has the experience and veteran leadership, as well as home ice to calmly bounce back in this position in my opinion. Minnesota averages 3.21 GPG, which is eighth overall, but it's very average defensively, conceding 2.84, which is ranked 15th. The fact that the Wild managed to just blank the Knights as well, doesn't bode well for them here in Game 7 in my opinion. The Knights though are among the league leaders on both ends of the ice, averaging 3.39 GPG, which ranks third, while allowing 2.18, which ranks first. I say that Las Vegas is the better team, that's just been outplayed the last games. I say that Minnesota is now dog tired and it's going to fall flat here. However, I don't think that the Knights will just win here, I believe they're going to win by a signficant margin. The play is Las Vegas on the puck line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-28-21 | Marlins v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the UNDER Marlins/Red Sox. I look for these two red hot "in form" starters to get the majority of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries. This one has "duel" written all over it. The visitors hand the ball to Cody Poteet (2-0, 1.06 ERA), who will look to help his team bounce back from yesterday's 3-2 defeat at home to the Phillies. Poteet just went seven scoreless against the Mets on Sunday, striking out four and allowing three hits. Over 17 innings of work he now has a sharp 13/2 K/W. Boston counters with Martin Perez (2-2, 3.55 ERA) who comes in off a strong win over Philadelphia in his last outing, allowing three runs and striking out seven over six innings. Perez has now allowed two or fewer runs in six straight starts and I expect him to continue to progress here vs. this "on again, off again" Marlins lineup. Note as well that the Fish have seen the total dip under the posted number in 11 of their last 17 interleague road games when the total is set between 9 or 9.5. As I mentioned right at the top, I expect these starters to dominate and battle into the latter frames. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-27-21 | Rangers v. Mariners -105 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
10* WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the Mariners. The Rangers have lost five of their last eight games. The Mariners have dropped seven of their last nine. Both teams are equally motivated to win this contest, so let's throw the "motivation" factor out the window. The Rangers come to town off a disheartening 9-8 loss at the Angels and I think they'll have a difficult time bouncing back here. Texas hands the ball to Kolby Allard (1-0, 3.15), who is making his first start of the 2021 season. Note that he's a terrible 1-2 with a ballooned 10.38 ERA in four career appearances vs. the M's, which does include three starts. The hungry home side counters with Chris Flexen (4-2, 5.09), who is 2-0 with a 5.25 ERA in two career starts against Texas. Seattle comes in with momentum as well after breaking a six-game slide by taking two of three in Oakland. All things considered, a fantastic price on the home side here in my opinion. The play is Seattle. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-27-21 | Hurricanes v. Predators OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 121 | 30 h 29 m | Show |
10* FIRST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Canes/Predators. Carolina is desperate to end this series, and Nashville is holding on for dear life. I expect this competitive game to produce some offensive fireworks this evening. Carolina has a 3-2 series lead now after snapping a two-game slide. So far home ice advantage has proved to be the difference-maker in this series and while that trend may or may not hold true again here, everything points to a wide-open one that's for sure in my opinion. The Hurricanes are averageing 3.5 GPG in the playoffs, and Nashville is going to have to match pace here if it wants to extend. Note as well that the Preds have averaged 4.5 goals per game at home here in their two playoff games. The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to a high-scoring over in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-27-21 | Bucks v. Heat +1.5 | Top | 113-84 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 11 m | Show |
10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Miami Heat. With their backs against the wall and desperate to avoid an 0-3 hole, I like the Heat to dig deep here in Game 3 and find a way to win and cover. Milwaukee barely held on for the 109-107 OT home win in Game 1, but it definitely looked like the better team in its 132-98 Game 2 victory. Miami is interestingly 7-1 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to 100 points or less in. The Bucks were 28-10 at home this year, and a mediocre 20-16 on the road. The Heat are 19-19 on the road, but 21-15 at home. I can't see Jimmy Butler held down for three straight games. Milwaukee is also just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while the Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six at home. 17,000 people will be in attendance here for the Heat, and I say that matters! Look for Miami to claw its way back into this series. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-26-21 | Panthers v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
10* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Panthers/Lightning. Both teams are equally adept on both ends of the ice. Honestly, it wouldn't be terribly difficult to write a convincing argument for this total to go either way. So why is this total going to fly over the number? The Lightning will be out to atone for their lacklustre 4-1 loss last time out (it's interesting to note as well that the Bolts have seen the total go over in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less goals in), and they'll absolutely want to avoid this series going to a decisive Game 7. The Panthers somehow managed to stifle this potent Lightning offense last time out, but they'll have to match pace with the home side here to once again avoid elimination. This isn't going to be a "chess match," it's going to be a "shoot-out" until the end. This one has over written all over it. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-26-21 | Hawks v. Knicks OVER 212.5 | Top | 92-101 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the OVER Hawks/Knicks. Game 1 snuck UNDER the number, but I'm expecting a more wide-open affair in Game 2. Clearly, the Knicks will be laying everything on the line here to try and even up this series and before heading to Atlanta. The Hawks have to be thrilled that they've already earned a split, but they'll be out to prove it wasn't a fluke and to take a commanding grip on this series with another big effort here as well. New York is known for its defense, as it's ranked among the best in several categories The Knicks, however, are going to have to be the aggressors here from the opening tip until the final horn in Game 2. Julius Randle was held in check in Game 1, but I can't see that happening to the MIP of the year in back-to-back games (and it's interesting to note as well that the Knicks have seen the total go OVER in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 105 points or fewer.) Atlanta got the win in Game 1 by the skin of its teeth, and that was with Randle having his worst performance of the season basically. Clearly, the Hawks can't be completely satisfied with their performance either. With the Knicks pushing the pace to try and even things up and to send a message to the Hawks before this series shifts to Atlanta, look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-25-21 | Lakers -1.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-102 | Win | 100 | 33 h 55 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the LA Lakers. The Lakers didn't look great in Game 1. Over the last two years, the Lakers though have been fantastic at making adjustments from game-to-game and I absolutely expect that to be the case today. The Suns had a few extra days off to prepare for Game 1, but I think LeBron James, Anthony Davis and the defending champs will indeed throw an entirely different look at Phoenix tonight. There was plenty of on-court drama between LeBron James and Chris Paul in Game 1. Paul and Devin Booker looked fresh, but we can expect the Lakers tough-nosed defenders to play much more aggressively here on those two players. LA even had a chance late, as they got very close, but it missed several wide-open three-point shots and was then never able to close the gap. Davis had a poor game as well, and said after that the Game 1 loss was his fault. It's that type of veteran leadership which is going to help LA bounce back here in Game 2 vs. this younger Suns side. In what I expect to be another tight game, look for the Lakers to ultimately pull away down the stretch, and to improve to 8-2 ATS in their last ten in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to 90 points or less in. The play is LA to STUN the Suns in Game 2. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-25-21 | Predators +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 51 m | Show | |
6* PUCK-LINE POWER-PLAY on the Predators. This series is all tied up at two games apiece. Carolina won the first two games at home, but Nashville has won the last two, both in OT in its own building. Now the series shifts back to Carolina and I'm expecting another really tight battle, one which could easily see extra periods as well. And that's the reason why I'm going to lay this price, to ensure that if that does happen, that we're covered with the extra 1.5 goals on the puckline. "Momentum" is a very real, almost tangible factors in the playoffs, and the momentum in this series has clearly shifted. The Predators don't score as much as Carolina, but their defensive numbers are almost identical (Carolina allows 2.39 GPG, while Nashville allows 2.75.) We've seen a lot of scoring over the last two games, and they've been very competitive. Making adjustments in the playoffs is key to success, and the Predators have done just that. Now it's time for the home side to do the same. In this all-important Game 5, look for these normally tough-nosed defensive teams to indeed double-down on that end and then look for this total to stay well under once the final horn sounds. The play is indeed the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-25-21 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
10* RUN-LINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Blue Jays. Toronto got off to a great start this year, but it's been struggling significantly over the last few weeks. The Yankees got off to a terrible start this season, but they enter this one as arguably the hottest team in the league. The visiting side comes in hungry to break its slide and in a contest which I do envision being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Jays go with Steven Matz (5-2, 4.69 ERA), who enters off an outing to forget against the Red Sox, allowing five earned runs and striking out four over six innings in what turned out to be no-decision. Matz hasn't been perfect, but he's been the Jays most trusted starter this year, and note that he's actually been significantly better on the road this season (4-1, 3.39), than at home (1-1, 5.65.) Corey Kluber (4-2, 2.86) has been great this year for the Yankees, but off his first career no-hitter, I absolutely expect immediate regression here. The same thing happend to Joe Musgrove earlier in the season, who also had a no-hitter, but then who got torched in the game immediately afterwards. That may or may not happen to Kluber here, but either way, I do feel that the Yanks' starter is going to take a step back here after posting that historic performance last time out. Combined with the fact that the Jays truly are desperate here to break a six-game slide, then I think the value for sure lies in laying a small price, to get an extra 1.5 runs. So that's my call here, take the Jays on the run-line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-24-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 121 | 29 h 6 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER on the OVER Wild/Knights. The Knights are on the brink of moving on after moving to 2-1 in this series. The Wild have to get something going on the offensive end after getting shutout in Game 4. The Wild are struggling defensively now as well, as goaltender Cam Talbot has struggled mightily over the last three games. The Knights finished the regular season ranked third in goals per game, and fourth in shots per game. Yes, Vegas was also the No. 1 defense in the league, but a small letdown does seem imminent against a Wild team that it has its back against the wall, and which has seen the total fly over the posted number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a shutout loss vs. an opponent. The stage is finally set for some offensive fireworks. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-24-21 | Blazers v. Nuggets -118 | Top | 109-128 | Win | 100 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
10* MONEY-LINE PERFECT STORM on the Denver Nuggets. Instead of worrying about a point spread, and because it's almost a "pick-em" anyways, I'm going to play Denver on the "money line" in this one. The backcourt of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum got the better of Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets on their own floor in Game 1, but I believe that Denver has the talent and experience to make the necessary adjustments to even things back up. Portland has already accomplished what it set out to do, and that's earn a difficult "split" over these first two games of the series, as it now has the "ball in its court" so to speak moving forward. Clearly, the last thing Denver can do is drop a second straight game here. And after four straight wins and covers, I do think that the Blazers will finally have a small letdown here. Denver finished the season ranked eighth in scoring with 115.0 PPG. With Portland's win in Game 1, these teams are now tied 2-2 in the season series straight-up, but the Blazers have covered in all four. I don't expect that lop-sided trend to continue here whatsoever, as note that the Nuggets are in fact a sharp 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they allowed 120 or more points in. I believe Jokic will carry his team to a straight up victory here. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-24-21 | Padres v. Brewers -104 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Brewers. After winning nine straight, I think the Padres finally have a small letdown here. The Brewers have been waffling for a while now, so they can't afford to take the foot off the gas despite back-to-back convincing victories. It's a great set of situational circumstances working in favor of the home side tonight, and I look for it to make the most of it and post a convincing victory in the opener of this three game set and with a very reasonable line attached to it as well. Blake Snell (1-0, 3.79 ERA), comes in off a no-decision to the Rockies on Tuesday, allowing one run over six innings. Snell has been great this year for his new team, but if he's had one "knock" against him, it's been his play on the road where he's 0-0 with a ballooned 6.97 ERA. The home side counters with Brandon Woodruff (2-2, 1.58), who allowed two runs (only one earned) while striking out four over eight innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate loss to the Royals on Tuesday. It was Woodruff's eighth straight quality start and to go along with his tiny ERA, he also owns a miniscule 0.74 WHIP and monstrous 65/14 K/W. I think the hungrier home side finds a way to deliver, and as I said off the top, I do now believe that the Padres will finally stumble after such a long stretch of elite level play. The play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-23-21 | Bruins v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 13 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the OVER Bruins/Capitals. The last two games of this series have gone under the number, with Boston winning both. The Capitals return home with their backs against the wall, in need of a victory. Will that happen? Perhaps, but whether the Capitals can push this series another game or not, I absolutely expect more of a wide-open game, a pace which I see leading to plenty of pucks finding the back of the net. Washington has seen the total fly over the number in eight of its last 11 after three or more straight losses. The Capitals defense is crumbling around them, as they've conceded 11 goals over the last three games. Washington will be forced to have its defenseman join the attack today as well, which will leave it more vulnerable than ever on the back end to this opportunistic Bruins' offense. Situationally and also from a trend-based stand-point, this one has over written all over it. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-23-21 | Lakers v. Suns UNDER 213.5 | Top | 90-99 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
10* FIRST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Lakers/Suns. If the Lakers are going to win this series, they're going to grind down the Suns defensively and wear out Chris Paul and Devin Booker. They'll also try and establish their big men throughout. The Lakers come into the playoffs fully healthy. The Suns will also have to double down on the defensive end in this series if they want to be successful. Phoenix has always been known for its scoring, but the big turnaround this season has indeed been on the defensive end, as it's held its opposition to an effective field goal percentage of 53.4%, which ranks tenth overall. LA will look to grind out possessions in an attempt to control the pace and flow and to take the game out of Paul's hands. Defensive intensity tends to pick up in the playoffs (obviously), and these are two of the best in the league on that end of the floor. Game 1 has under written all over it. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-23-21 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
10* PITCHERS DUEL on the under Tigers/Royals. Considering the recent form of each of these starting pitchers, I think this posted total is definitely a little high. Yes, these teams are coming off back-to-back high-scoring affairs, with Detroit taking the first game in the three-game series by a score of 7-5, and then KC returning the favor with a 7-5 win, but everything points to more of a duel in the finale. The visiting side hands the ball to Casey Mize (3-3, 3.69 ERA), who conceded a single run off three hits to go along with seven strikeouts over eight innings in a victory over the Mariners on Monday. It wa shis second straight win, and as I stated off the top, "recent form" of these starting pitchers is a big reason behind this pick this afternoon. The home side counters with Kris Bubic (0-0, 0.96), who went six shutout innings against the Brewers in his last outing. Over 18.2 innings of work the 23-year old has a 14/9 K/W, and there's no reason not to think he can't carry that momentum over here in this favorable home matchup. Look for these starting pitchers to grab the majority of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-22-21 | Celtics +8 v. Nets | 93-104 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
8* play on the Celtics. Yes, it's been a difficult for Boston. A transition season, and one filled with plenty of injury issues. Despite that though, Boston is now in the playoffs and I believe it'll throw its "best shot" it has at the mighty Nets tonight. The Celtics didn't play well down the stretch of the regular season, but they looked great in their 118-100 play in victory over the Wizards. Jayson Tatum had 50 points, and he's going to be a matchup issue for this very poor Brooklyn defense. Brooklyn won its final five regular-season games. Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden are clearly an unbelievable trio of talents, but they haven't ever played a lot of meaningful games together as a team. That's important at this time of year. The Celtics have been to hell and back together and they know what it takes to win in the playoffs. The players on the Nets have a lot of experience and individual successes in the playoffs, but never together as a team. I say that matters in Game 1. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but much closer than what this spread would suggest. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-22-21 | Rays v. Blue Jays -110 | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Jays. The Jays have lost three straight. That includes yesterday's 9-7 loss in the series opener. Over their last two games they've scored 14 runs, but gone 0-2. Toronto has the superior starting pitcher on the hill though here and I believe that'll help the home side bounce back in fine fashion on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Shane McClanahan (1-0, 4.67 ERA), who gave up four runs over five innings to earn a victory over the light-hitting Mets in his last outing. The book is still out on McClanhan though, and clearly he faces his stiffest test to date here on the road vs. the hard-hitting Jays. Robbie Ray (2-1, 3.79) allowed four runs over six innings, while also striking out nine in a hard-fought win over the Phillies in his last outing. Over seven starts Ray has a very respectable 1.14 WHIP. Finally, note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed eight or more runs in. Great price on the home side here. The play is Toronto. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-22-21 | Brewers v. Reds -135 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
10* LEGEND on the Reds. I had a play on the Reds last night, and they went on to post a convincing 9-4 win over the floundering Brewers. The victory was significant, as it snapped a four-game slide, and it also made up for a brutal 19-4 loss the day before at home against the Giants. Now it's the Brewers who enter on a losing streak (3 in a row and six of their last seven). And this isn't a staring pitching matchup that favors the visiting side today either, meaning I absolutely expect Milwaukee's struggles to continue for at least one more game. The Reds won't be taking anything for granted after such a long period of poor play, instead they'll be more eager than ever to try and string a couple wins together and at the very least, secure the series victory here today. They also have the better in form and more motivated starting pitcher on the hill today. Sonny Gray (0-3, 3.86 ERA), gave up four runs (three earned), off five hits over five innings on Monday in a loss to the hard-hitting Giants in his last outing. It was the only time that he's allowed three or more runs in a start this season though and clearly Gray will be hungry to finally get into the winners circle today. And what better opponent than the volatile Brett Anderson (2-3, 4.50), who gave up four runs off eight hits with three walks while striking out three over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Braves in his last outing (note that the southpaw has been at his worst on the road as well, going 1-2 with a 5.50 ERA.) The stage is set for Cincinnati to build off yesterday's convincing victory. Great price on Gray and the hungry home side. The play is the Reds. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-22-21 | Penguins v. Islanders -106 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 45 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Islanders. These teams sport almost identical defensive numbers, as Pittsburgh allows 2.77 GPG, while New York concedes 2.23. Pittsburgh is ranked 14th defensively, while the Isles are ranked second. The Penguins though have the advantage on the offensive end, as they average 3.45 GPG, while the Islanders average 2.7. Down 2-1 in this series though, I like New York to rally here and even up this series. So far Pittsburgh has the upper-hand in this battle, but the Isles have responded well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed five or more goals in. I say the Sid The Kid and the Penguins finally have a letdown here, as I expect the Isles to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes to avoid the 1-3 hole. The play is the Islanders. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-22-21 | Heat +5 v. Bucks | Top | 107-109 | Win | 100 | 21 h 26 m | Show |
10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER on the Heat. The Heat made it all way to the NBA Finals last year, as they caught fire late in the season and then snowballed that momentum all the way until the end. Miami beat the Bucks in five games in the ECF last year and I believe it'll at the very least, take today's game right down to the wire. Jimmy Butler missed all three regular season games agains the Bucks, but he's back to 100% health, and I think he's a big time "X factor" in this game (and series.) Butler averages 21.5 points, 6.9 boards and 7.1 assists per game. Miami also has three "lockdown" defenders to body up on Bucks' star Giannis Antetokuonmpo in Andre Igoudala, Butler and Bam Adebayo. Milwaukee is a great regular season team, but its big knock is that it can't perform in the playoffs. I'd argue, that Milwaukee's team this year isn't nearly as good as it was last season. The Bucks may go on to exorcise their demons here in this series, but I expect them to come out flat in Game 1. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-21-21 | Avalanche v. Blues +185 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the St. Louis Blues. Colorado won the Presidents Cup Trophy on the final regular season game of the year. The Avs have won the first two games of this series quite handily, but I didn't expect Colorado to sweep this series. I'm not sure if St. Louis can win two games, but as I just said, I don't expect it to get swept either, and in my opinion, Game 3 is the "do or die" moment for St. Louis. The Blues will be in a 0-3 hole if they lose this one, clearly one which will be just too deep to dig out of vs. this potent Avalanche team. The Blues were actually better on the road than at home this year. Colorado was great both on the road and at home, but note that St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge back-to-back losses vs. an opponent. It's also 6-2 in its last eight in trying to revenge a three-goals or greater loss to an opponent. I say St. Louis digs deep and finds a way to win Game 3 at home. The play is the Blues. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-21-21 | Grizzlies +4 v. Warriors | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER on the Grizzlies. My NBA Game of the Year was on the Warriors in their 113-101 regular season finale victory over these very Grizzlies, but for this final "play in" contest, I'm going with Memphis to exact a little revenge. The Warriors enter off a tight loss to the Lakers, losing straight-up, but covering the spread. The Grizzlies held on for a 100-96 victory over the Spurs, but they were unable to cover the 4.5 point spread. Memphis is healthier right now, and that's going to matter after so many tight and important games. These players are giving their all, and the Grizzlies' depth is going to play a big part here. Yes, Golden State has Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, but they're down James Wiseman, Kelly Oubre Jr. and Damian Lee. Golden State is coming off a crushing last-second loss to LeBron James, and now it faces a revenge-minded Grizzlies team that loves to body up on teams and get physical. Clearly, I believe the outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-21-21 | Brewers v. Reds +108 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 108 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Reds. Enough is enough for Reds fans! Cincinnati comes to the field today prepared to snap a four-game slide, and to atone for yesterday's poor 19-4 loss here at home to San Francisco. Jeff Hoffman (2-3, 4.67 ERA) is coming off an outing to forget for Cincinnati, allowing five runs (two earned) over four innings vs. the Rockies on Sunday. Over 34.2 innings of work, Hoffman owns a 32-18 K/W. His counterpart today is Milwaukee starter Adrian Houser (3-4, 3.63) who gave up two runs off two hits with five walks in a loss to Atlanta in his last outing. It was his shortest outing of the year, as he threw just 32 of his 65 pitches for strikes. I like Hoffman to bounce back at home here (wns a 2.70 ERA with no decision in two starts vs. Milwaukee), but further regression seems imminent for Houser in my opinion (note he's 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA in three career starts here.) Milwaukee has lost seven of nine on the road, and they now face a Reds team looking to bounce back after getting outscored 33-9 by the Giants. Look for the Reds to rally at home. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-20-21 | Pacers v. Wizards -3 | Top | 115-142 | Win | 100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Wizards. The Wizards came close to pulling off an upset in Boston, but now they'll have to play the Pacers here to see who gets the eighth seed in Eastern Conference. Indiana is coming off a 144-117 win over Charlotte (I had the Pacers in that one), but I think it'll struggle to find the same energy here. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances for a bounce-back performance this year, as it took all three regular-season meetings between the clubs, winning 132-124, 154-141 and 133-132 in OT in Indiana. Indiana got a huge performance from Doug McDermott and Oshae Brissett, with issues to Myles Turner, Jeremy Lamb and Caris LeVert. Malcolm Brogdon played in the victory, but he's questionable here as well. The Wizards are tough on their own floor, and after the sub-par effort in Boston, they'll be out to push the pace from start to finish. They've been great in this spot recently for bettors as well, going 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. the Eastern conference. Washington is healthier and playing on its own floor. Everything points to a comfortable home side cover here in my opinion. Play on the Wizards. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-20-21 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 10 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
10* PITCHERS DUEL on the Red Sox/Jays under. We've seen some explosive scoring from these two teams this year, but everything points to more of a duel on Thursday in my opinion. Boston pulled away for a 7-3 win here yesterday and the total went over the number by a half-run. Toronto won the series opener 8-0. The road ahead doesn't get any easier for either side as well, as Toronto welcomes Tampa Bay to town tomorrow for a four-game weekend series, and that's followed by back-to-back road series at the Yankees and Indians. Boston hits the interleague portion of its schedule starting on Friday, with a road series in Philadelphia, followd by the Braves and Marlins at home. Regardless though, as I stated off the top, these two starting pitchers are poised for a classic duel in my opinion. The visitors go with Nick Pivetta (5-0, 3.16 ERA), who comes in off a no-decision to the Angels on Friday, allowing two runs and striking out seven over six innings. To go along with his solid ERA, Pivetta also sports a sharp 42/22 K/W over 42.2 innings of work. His counterpart is Steven Matz (5-2, 4.29) who comes in off five-scoreless vs. Philly on Friday, allowing four hits to go along with nine strikeouts. Matz now has a great 46/13 K/W over 42 innings. After a couple of shaky starts previous, Matz won't be taking anything for granted after his bounce-back outing. Look for these two capable starting pitchers to steal most of the headlines in Friday's game re-cap summary. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-20-21 | Penguins v. Islanders -107 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Islanders. These teams are evenly matched. The Isles won 4-3 in OT in Game 1, and then Pittsburgh bounced back with a tight 2-1 win in Game 2. The Isles accomplished what they set out to do though, and that was earn a valuable "split" over the first two games. Now they have the advantage moving forward here, and I expect them to make the most of it. Don't think home ice matters? I'd say, guess again! The Penguins are 23-4-1-2 at home this year, but just a mediocre 15-12-1 on the road. The Islanders are only 12-14-3-1 on the road, but 21-4-1-2 at home. That Game 1 OT victory is clearly a big one for the Isles. Now Pittsburgh has to face one of the best home teams in all of the NHL. Statistically, Pittsburgh has the superior offense, but the Islanders are definitely better on the defensive end. The cast of characters, the strengths and weaknesses of each side are well known. The oddsmakers aren't giving the Islanders enough respect in their own building with this line though, and I'm ready to make them pay. The great value play here in Game 3 is on the Islanders. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-19-21 | Warriors v. Lakers UNDER 219.5 | Top | 100-103 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the UNDER Warriors/Lakers. If the Warriors are going to win this game, they're going to have to try to somehow break down the Lakers tough perimeter defense and get some open shots from the outside. If the Lakers are going to win this game, they're going to play tough perimeter defense, and use their big men from start to finish while on offense. With the home side's offense being run through the paint, I do indeed expect a more methodical pace here. Golden State has plenty of great young talent in Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins, but they're both in unchartered territory here. The defending champs are back to full strength essentially and I expect them to send an early message to the Warriors, and the rest of the league. Clearly, Curry has to have a monster game for the Warriors to win, but I just can't see that happening against this stout Lakers defense. LA only averages 109.5 PPG, so it's definitely not like the Lakers are blowing out teams on a nightly basis either. LA won the last two games in this series handily and while that may or may not happen here, in my opinion everything points to the under as the correct call as far as the total is concerned. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-19-21 | Astros v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 8-1 | Push | 0 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER on the UNDER Astros/A's. While each side has played to a few "overs" of late, I think a classic pitchers duel is in order on Wednesday night. Houston has seen the total soar above the posted number in four straight, including in yesterday's 6-5 series opening loss here yesterday. Oakland has now seen the total go over in three straight. Two capable starting pitchers go head-to-head on Wednesday though and everything points to the under as the correct move. Zack Greinke (3-1, 4.18 ERA), is getting progressively better with each outing so far in 2021, most recently allowing three run and striking out five over seven innings in a victory over the Rangers on Friday. Through 51.2 innings of work the veteran now sports a sharp 40/11 K/W. His counterpart tonight is Frankie Montas (5-2, 4.93), who comes in off his best start of the year, allowing one run over six innings in a victory over the Twins. There's no reason not to think he can't carry that momentum over here. One last thing I'll point out is that the Astros have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 12 after seeing the total go over in four or more straight games in a row. Look for this one to stay well under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-19-21 | Predators v. Hurricanes -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 157 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
10* PUCK-LINE PERFECT STORM on the Hurricanes. Nashville threw its best shot at Carolina in Game 1 and it still got crushed 5-2. I expect a similar final discrepany in score here as well. Nashville got to this point with its tough defensive play, as it entered the playoffs allowing 2.7 GPG. The Predators only average 2.7 GPG, and I believe they're going to once again struggle to find any momentum here vs. this Canes team which concedes just 2.3 GPG. Carolina is equally adept on the other end of the ice though, averaging 3.1 goals per game. It's also very interesting to note that the Predators are now a poor 3-7 in thier last ten as an underdog, while the Hurricanes are 6-1 in their last seven after scoring four or more goals in their previous outing. Carolina not only wins, it wins BIG. Lay the 1.5 goals for healthy return! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-18-21 | Rockies v. Padres UNDER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
10* NL TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Rockies/Padres. San Diego won 7-0 yesterday, and the total went over the number by a 0.5 run. Linesmakers don't set Padres lines high very often, and tonight's game is no exception. While San Diego has seen the total go over in four straight, I think tonight's contest will fall below it. The Rockies put up big numbers at home, but Coors Field is a "hitters" park. Over their last two games on the road, they've put up a total of zero runs, losing 2-0 in St. Louis in their previous road contest back on May 9th. Not surprisingly, Colorado is a terrible 2-15 on the road this season. Austin Gomber (2-4, 5.49 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he faced these very Friars in his last start, giving up one run while striking out six over five innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. The Padres counter with Blake Snell (1-0, 4.19) who gave up two runs over four innings, striking out seven to the Rockies in last week's double-header, taking a no-decision as well. Snell has 49 strikeouts over 34.1 innings of work thus far. I'm expecting these capable starting pitchers to battle into the latter frames and I believe that'll ultimately help in driving this total under the posted number. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-18-21 | Wild v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
10* FIRST ROUND TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Wild/Knights. Two of the best defensive clubs in the league skated to a low-scoring 1-0 extra-periods decision in Game 1, but I believe Game 2 will be much more wide-open and ultimately higher-scoring. It takes a lot of energy to constantly back check and block pucks and after that defensive affair for the ages, I think we'll see a completely different flow to Game 2. Note that Vegas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last eight after getting shutout in its previous contest. Minnesota has seen the total soar over the number in six of its last eight after a shutout victory in which it scored two or less goals in. Look for the offenses to be a step ahead in this one. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-18-21 | Hornets v. Pacers -3 | Top | 117-144 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
10* PLAY-IN GAME OF THE YEAR on the Pacers. I don't think that the home-court advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this contest. The Hornets enter the playoffs banged up and with zero momentum, as they've lost five in a row. Overall they average 109.5 PPG, while allowing 111.4. Terry Rozier averages 20.4 PPG and 4.2 assists, while LaMelo Ball adds 15.7 points and 5.9 boards. The Pacers have split their last ten games. Overall Indiana averages and concedes 115.3 PPG. Domantas Sabonis will be leaned upon heavily here with injuries to Brogdan and Turner. Charlotte has a bright future, and even making it into the "Play-In" tournament is a huge accomplishment for it. The Hornets though are a terrible 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games and 2-6 ATS in their last eight as an underdog. I won't try to convince you that the Pacers are a great team, as that's not the case. But this is a game that I think they can win handily (and note that Indiana is a sharp 5-0 ATS in its last five at home.) Despite the injuries, Indiana is the smart play at home here in my opinion, as I look for Sabonis to lead his team to a comfortable win and cover. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Indiana. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-17-21 | Blues v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 105 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
10* PUCKKLINE GAME OF THE WEEK on the Avalanche. Colorado steamrolled its way into the playoffs, finishing as the President Cup Trophy winner. I don't only expect to see Colorado win this game, but I expect it to win handily. The margin of error is slim for St. Louis. In all honesty, I just can't see where its offense is going to come from. It only averages 2.9 GPG. It concedes 2.9 as well. As I said, clearly St. Louis is living on the edge most nights. Colorado on the other hand averages a whopping 3.5 GPG, while allowing only 2.30. For arguments sake, let's call the goaltending units a "wash" in this series. Colorado still has such huge advantages, that I'd almost consider laying -2.5 goals in this opening game. But we're not doing that. I'm going to play the -1.5 puck line here as I look for the Avs to send an early message to the Blues, and to the rest of the league that they're the team to beat. Lay the 1.5 goals on the Avs. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-17-21 | Nationals v. Cubs -146 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Chicago Cubs. Facing your former team is never an easy thing to do, and I believe that Jon Lester will in fact struggle in this spot. Washington has won three of its last four, but after a 3-0 victory in Arizona just last night, I think the "on again, off again" Nationals are going to stumble in "The Friendly Confines." Chicago has won two of three. The Cubs are just 6-12 on the road, but they're 13-8 at home. The Nationals are only 7-10 on the road. Lester (0-1, 2.25 ERA) is coming off a no-decision to the Phillies on Wednesday, he gave up one run and three walks over six innings. The sample size for this season is still way too small to draw any conclusive conclusions. The home side counters with Adbert Alzolay (1-3, 4.50) who enters off his second straight quality start, giving up three runs over six innings to go along with six strikeouts in an unfortunate setback to the Indians. If we look a little closer at Alzolay, we see that his numbers are in fact fantastic, with a 0.88 WHIP and 36/7 K/W over 32 innings of work. As stated off the top, the stage is set for a collapse by Lester here facing his former team. It's a perfect storm of factors working in favor of Alzolay and the Cubbies. Lay it. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-17-21 | Giants v. Reds UNDER 8 | 6-3 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
8* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the UNDER Giants/Reds. The Reds are 9-12 on the road this year, but they're coming off a high-scoring 7-6 win over Colorado just last night. Cincinnati scored four runs in the eighth and two in the ninth to secure the one run victory, and while it's now seen the total go over in four straight, I think a return to friendly confines will see a lower-scoring "duel" for the home side finally. The Giants have seen the total go under in five of their last six, including in their 4-1 win at Pittsburgh yesterday. Sonny Gray (0-2, 3.55 ERA) will be "hungry" for his first win of the season here. He most recently allowed one run over 4.2 innings, while also striking out five in a no-decision vs. the Pirates last Wednesday. Over 25.1 innings of work, Gray has a sharp 36/12 K/W (five starts.) Logan Webb (2-3, 4.74) will look to carry over the momentum from his best start of the season, allowing two runs (only one earned), off three hits and two walks over six innings to go along with ten strikeouts in a victory over the Rangers. Here are two teams that struggle with offensive consistency, facing two pitchers that are throwing at their highest-level of the season thus far. When you add up all those factors, the correct call as far as the total is concerned is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-16-21 | Lightning -120 v. Panthers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Lightning. Florida won five of the eight regular season games. The Lightning are back to defend their title. 16 different players have 12 or more points for the Bolts, led by Brayden Point with 48 points. Andrei Vasilevskiy has a 31-10-1 record with a 2.21 GAA. Offense and defense were a strength of Florida's as well. However, the Panthers struggled down the stretch of the season, conceding three or more goals in seven out of their last nine games. Experience counts at this time of year. Look for Tampa to send an early message with a convincing victory. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-16-21 | Cardinals v. Padres -127 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Padres (10*). My 37-Club Play winner on Saturday was the Padres, and they went on to beat the visiting Cardinals by a score of 13-3. The Padres are once again rolling, as they've won five of their last six. I say they complete the sweep here. The Card go with Kwang Hyun Kim (1-0, 2.74 ERA), who has only given up four earned runs over 20 innings of work. Kim has been great, but clearly the book is still out and the sample size just too small. Ryan Weathers (2-1, 0.81), has been exceptional in whatever role the Padres have needed himin this season. With a strong bullpen to support, I like Weathers at home in this matchup. Also note that SD is interestingly 7-3 in its last ten after scoring 12 or more runs in a victory in its last outing. All things considered, a great price on this one. I'm on the Padres (again!) Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-16-21 | Grizzlies v. Warriors -5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Warriors. To say this is a "big" game would be an understatement. Both teams come into this contes on fire as well. Memphis enters having won five straight, while Golden State has also won five in a row. The winner of this contest will secure eighth spot in the Western Conference playoff race, and in my opinion, home court advantage simply can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor here. The Warriors play with the added incentive of revenge as well after losing the most recent matchup between the clubs 111-103 back on March 20th. Overall Memphis averages 113.5 PPG, while allowing 112.3. Golden State averages 113.7 PPG, while allowing 112.8 as well. This is a pressure packed situation, and who better to deliver than Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre Jr. have also emerged as fantastic talents. Listen, the Grizz are filled with great talent as well, and admittedly Jonas Valanciunas will be a matchup issue, but as stated above, I can't see the visiting side slowing down this veteran group on their own floor. The Warriors are 5-0 ATS their last five at home and 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which they conceded 110 or more points in. Lay the points, expect a decisive victory. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-16-21 | A's v. Twins -104 | 7-6 | Loss | -104 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Twins (8*). Minnesota finally broke out of its slump with a tight 5-4 win yesterday, and I think it'll keep the momentum rolling here. Oakland is 11-6 on the road. The Twins are only 7-12 at home. Minnesota was picked by many to be among the best in the league, but the Twins have struggled with consistency across the board. The bottom line is though, one close victory isn't going to solve anything for the Twins, they desperately need to string some wins together and I expect them to once again play with a sense of urgency today. The A's have a night off before a series at home vs. the Astros, so this also sets up as a look-ahead spot for the visiting side. I also like Kenta Maeda (2-2, 5.08 ERA), over Chris Bassitt (3-2, 3.54). Maeda allowed three runs over five innings vs. the White Sox on Tuesday, not factoring into the decision. Note that while he's 1-1 with a 6.38 ERA on the road, he's a "lights out" 1-1 with a 1.96 ERA at home. Bassitt's been great, hard to knock anything about his performance right now, I simply think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. I like the "hungrier" team to win here, and as I outlined, this one sets up as a "trap" for the visitors. The play is Minnesota. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-16-21 | Phillies v. Blue Jays -145 | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Jays (8*). Philadelphia's bullpen is atrocious. The Jays have the superior stater on the hill today too in my estimation. You add those two factors together, and in all honesty I believe that Robbie Ray could be a much bigger favorite in this matchup. Ray (1-1, 3.38 ERA) allowed three runs off five hits to go along with a season-high ten strikeouts in an unfortunate no-decision vs. the Braves in his last outing. Ray has gone at least five innings in every start so far for the Jays, giving up three or less runs each time. The Phillies counter with the volatile Chase Anderson (2-3, 5.23), who gave up two runs over five innings in a win over the Nationals in his last outing. Overall Anderson has a mediocre 26/15 K/W this season (he's also just 1-1 with a 7.38 ERA on the road.) Look for Ray to get the better of his counterpart. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-15-21 | Cardinals v. Padres -131 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
10* 37-CLUB on the Padres. Off last night's 5-4 win, I look for the home side to carry that momentum over into this one, but I believe it'll be a much "easier ride" this evening. St. Louis sends Adam Wainwright (2-3, 3.80 ERA) to the hill to face the Padres Chris Paddack (1-3, 4.78). I love going against pitchers that are coming off a big game in their previous outing, and that's the case here with Wainwright, who gave up three hits over 8.1 shutout innings on Sunday vs. the pathetic Rockies. Note though, while Wainwright is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA at home, he's a poor 0-1 with a ballooned 6.85 ERA on the road. After his big win last time out, regression is imminent here for the 15 year veteran in my opinion. Paddack is coming off a no-decision vs. the Giants on Sunday, going three scoreless, while striking out four. Paddack has uncharacteristically struggled at home this season (7.00 ERA), while domianted on the road (3.68), but we can expect these trends to start correcting here. Finally, note that the Cards are just 2-6 in their last eight in trying to revenge a one-run road loss vs. an opponent. When considering all of the above factors, I think we're getting a fantastic price on the Padres here. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-15-21 | Heat v. Bucks | Top | 108-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER on the Bucks. I like the Bucks to take care of business on their home court here. THe Heat have won seven of eight, but they're primed for a letdown in my estimation in this difficult road venue. Overall Miami averages 107.9 PPG, while allowing 107.9 as well. The Bucks are equally as hot, and they're going to keep the foot on the gas here at home. Milwaukee has won seven of eight, and it averages 120.2 PPG, while conceding 114.3. Milwaukee wins at home by an average of 7.2 points. After five straight losses against-the-spread, and playing with revenge after a 119-108 loss to the Heat on December 30th, I look for the home side to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Lay the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-15-21 | Bruins -125 v. Capitals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
10* NHL LAS VEGAS INSIDER (FIRST PLAY OF YEAR!) Larry didn't play the NHL regular season, but he's ready to get "back on the ice" now that the Playoffs are here, as after 35 years as one of the top professional handicappers, Ness is widely regarded as a "Playoff Guru!" Don't dare miss this exciting play! 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Bruins. As you may have read in the promo for this pick, I haven't actually played any NHL this season, but now that the playoffs are here, I'm ready to get into the game! For this opening game of this series and the playoffs, I believe that "recent form," especially on the defensive end, will prove to be the difference maker. Both teams can score, and both can defend. Washington averages 3.36 GPG, and it concedes 2.88, while Boston averages 2.93 GPG, while allowing 2.39. But as I said, for me this one is simple. Timing and chemistry are key entering the playoffs, and Boston is playing the better hockey right now. Note that Washington has scored four or more goals in four of its last nine games, but it's also conceded three goals or more in five of its last nine. Boston has scored three or more goals in eight of its last nine, while allowing two goals or less in eight of its last ten. Look for the Bruins to carry over their end of season surge into this opening series contest. The play is Boston. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-15-21 | Giants v. Pirates OVER 7.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
8* SLUG-FEST on the OVER Giants/Pirates. Neither club is known for its offensive prowess. Pittsburgh won 3-2 yesterday, snapping the Giants three-game win streak. San Francisco has now seen the total dip under in four straight, but with revenge on its mind here, I'm expecting a much bigger offensive output from the visiting side. And the home side has a golden opportunity to build off its win yesterday, as it faces the volatile Johnny Cueto, who is 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA, but who was just rocked for five earned runs off eight hits with one walk over three innings in a loss to the Padres. Cueto's early numbers are completely unrealistic, and further regression is imminent for the 35 year old in my opinion. Tyler Anderson gave up two runs over eight innings in a win over the Cubs in his last outing. He's just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.57 ERA in seven career starts vs. San Francisco. I look for each starter to get the "hook" early, and then expect that to help in driving this total well over once its all said and done. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-15-21 | A's v. Twins -126 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show | |
8* PITCHING MISMATCH on the Twins. I think the Twins are going to bounce back strong here after losing eight of their last ten and with their "ace" on the mound. Oakland cashed in for bettors last night as a slight -105 favorite. To say this is a "revenge game" for the home side would be a bit of an understatement as well, as Oakland swept a three-game set from the Twins at home at the start of the season. Minnesota was dubbed by many to make a serious run at the pennant, but so far the Twins have worst record in the entire Majors. But winning can lead to complaceny and losing invariably breeds motivation. After a series win in Boston and securing the opening series victory yesterday, I think the A's definitely take a step back here. Cole Irvin (3-4, 3.29 ERA) and Jose Berrios (3-2, 3.49) or a "wash" here in my opinion. Minnesota though is 7-3 in its last ten after a five games or longer losing streak, and 8-4 in its last 12 in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to one run or less. Great value on the "hungrier" revenge-minded home side. The play is Minnesota. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-15-21 | Celtics v. Wolves OVER 229.5 | 124-108 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show | |
8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER On the OVER Twolves. The Celtics have lost five of their last six. They finish up their season in Washington, but I don't think they'll go down without a fight here vs. the Wolves. Boston is dealing with several key injury issues, but despite that I think this total will soar well over. Boston will be out to atone for a poor 102-94 road loss in Cleveland. Minnesota though would love nothing more than to earn a few more victories before the season ends. The Wolves have been hampered by injury all season, but they're healthier now than they've been all year. They've won six of their last ten and I believe they'll be out to control the tempo here, which means pushing the pace from start to finish. Finally, note that the over is 5-0 the last five in this series. I don't expect defense to be a concern for either team today. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-14-21 | Kings v. Grizzlies -7.5 | Top | 106-107 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Grizzlies. The Kings have won six of their past eight games, but off a 116-110 road loss here just last night vs. the Grizzlies, I expect an even bigger final discrepancy in the score in tonight's game for the home side. Justin James exploded for 31 points for the Kings, and I am definitely not expecting "lighting to strike twice." The Grizzlies though have been steamrolling teams to end the season, healthier than they've been all year, they come into this one having won five of their last six games. Dillon Brooks had 30 points last night, while Jonas Valanciunas had 24. This one means a lot more for Memphis, as it continues to jockey for playoff positioning. Scheduling is also working in its favor in the second game of the back-to-back. This one has blowout written all over it. I expect the Grizzlies to STUN the books here, and to win handily by double-digits. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-14-21 | Phillies v. Blue Jays -143 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -143 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Jays. I like the Jays "at home" in this one. I think Steven Matz (5-2, 4.86 ERA) is the correct call here over Phillies' starter Vince Velasquez (1-0, 4.18). Velasquez enters off a strong start, going 5.1 innings and allowing one run off two hits in what turned out to be a no-decision to the Braves last Saturday. Velasquez is in trouble of losing his spot in the rotation if he didn't pick up his performance, and while he's done that over his last two outings, I think it's going to be asking too much from this volatile starter to produce three straight quality outings. Matz comes in off his fifth win of the year last Saturday, conceding three runs off eight hits while striking out four over five innings over the hard-hitting Astros on Saturday. He also didn't walk anyone in the victory for the first time this season. Philadelphia is better at home than on the road and everything points to that trend continuing here in the opener of this interleague matchup. It's a PERFECT STORM of factors working in favor of the Jays here. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-14-21 | Mets v. Rays -150 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show | |
8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Rays. Considering the talent discrepany between the starting pitchers today, I believe that this line could or should in fact be much larger. And that swings the value to the undervalued favorite. New York is primed for a letdown after seven straight victories. Tampa Bay won't be taking anything for granted though, as it just broke a two-game slide with a 9-1 win over the Yankess last night. David Peterson (1-3, 5.54 ERA) certainly isn't anything to write home about for the Mets. In his last outing he didn't even complete two innings before getting pulled. Tyler Glasnow (4-2, 2.27, 0.89 WHIP), gets the nod for the Rays. Glasnow has "struggled" a bit (for his lofty standards anyways), over his last three starts, but a date vs. this anemic Mets' line-up is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked. Peterson has been the lone disappointment in the Mets rotation, and all signs point to that trend continuing here. New York itself has been overachieving of late. Look for the Rays to take advantage and lay the price with confidence. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-13-21 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks +108 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
8* FALSE FAVORITE on the D-Backs. Trevor Rogers (4-2, 1.89 ERA) has been phenomenal in the early going for the Marlins, but regression does seem imminent in my opinion. Rogers gave up one run over five innings in a win over the Braves in his last outing. Previous to that he allowed three runs in a loss. The bottom line is though, the sample size is just too small and I think he'll finally struggle in this difficult road venue. The Diamondbacks counter with Merrill Kelly (2-3, 5.40), who is coming off a loss vs. the Mets on Saturday. Kelly catches a break here though facing this inconsistent Marlins line-up, on his own field. The Marlins just broke a four-game slide with yesterday's 3-2 win here, but previous to that the Diamondbacks had ttaken the first two games of this four-game series easily. I expect a "return to the norm" here for the home side, which is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to one or less runs in. Great value on the home side, the play is Arizona. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-13-21 | Reds -133 v. Rockies | 8-13 | Loss | -133 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Reds. It hasn't been the best overall start for the Reds in 2021, but they enter having won two of their last three, including a 5-1 victory at Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon. Luis Castillo (1-4, 6.42 ERA), will try to bounce back in this difficult road venue. Castillo has struggled to this point, but he has the track record and pedigree to return to form and I certainly trust him a whole lot more than his volatile counterpart Chi Chi Gonzalez (1-1, 5.97), who was shelled for seven runs with just one strikeout over four innings in a loss to the Cardinals. Over his last two outings Gonzalez has conceded 11 runs off 13 hits spanning 8.2 frames of work. The Reds have performed well in this spot for bettors as well, going 11-4 in their last 15 as a road favorite in the -135 to -145 range. The Rockies have also been inconsistent at the plate. This one sets up well for the Reds in the opener of this series. Lay the price. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-13-21 | Nuggets -6 v. Wolves | 114-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
8* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Nuggets. The Nuggets aren't going to take the foot off the gas with the finish line so close in sight now. Denver is 45-24 and it's won 11 of its last 14. Most recently it took down Charlotte on the road by a score of 117-112. Nikola Jokic had 30 points, 11 board and six assists. Minnesota has won six of nine, so the Nuggets won't be taking anything for granted here either. Most recently it won 119-100 at Detroit. But hammering the Pistons is one thing, and beating Jokic and the Nuggets is quite another. Even on your home floor. Denver has also dominated this series in this building, going 21-4-1 ATS the last 26 here. Denver is in a dog-fight for positioning until the end. The thrill of playing spoiler doesn't last too long for teams out of contention. Look for the Wolves to have a letdown here vs. this powerhouse visiting side. Lay the points, the play is Denver. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-13-21 | Clippers v. Hornets +8.5 | Top | 113-90 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
10* ODDSMAKER ERROR on the Hornets. The Clippers have split their last eight games, but I think they get caught looking past their opponent today. Outright win? Probably not, but I absolutely expect this one to be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. LA averages 114 PPG, while allowing 107.8. Kawhi Leonard is averaging 25 points and 6.5 boards for the Clippers. The Hornets are fighting, and they'll be hungry here after losing six of their last nine. Charlotte averages 109.7 PPG, while allowing 111.3. Terry Rozeir leads the nightly charge with 20.6 points and 4.2 assists per contest. LA has struggled in this spot for bettors as well, going 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. The Hornets are healthier than they've been in a long time and this is an important game to them. Look for LA to come in complacent and for the home side to be risking life and limb tonight. As I said above, probably no big outright upset victory, but I definitely expect a "nail-biter" until the end. Grab the points, the play is Charlotte. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-13-21 | Blue Jays v. Braves -145 | 8-4 | Loss | -145 | 5 h 41 m | Show | |
8* INTERLEAGUE CRUSHER on the Braves. Off back-to-back losses to the Jays to open up this three-game interleague series, I like the home side to figure things out and to post a W here in the finale. I had a free play yesterday on Toronto, and it won 4-1. With a tough series in Milwaukee tomorrow, there's added incentive for the home side to bounce back here. Toronto has won three of four, but a three-game home series vs. the Phillies sets this up as trap/look-ahead spot for the visiting side. The starting pitching matchup also favors the home side. Toronto's Ross Stripling (0-2, 6.61 ERA) gave up three runs off six hits over three innings in a loss to the Astros in his last outing. Atlanta's Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.98), enters off a crummy outing, allowing six unearned runs over only two-thirds of an inning in a blowout loss to the Phillies. Starts like that have been few and far between for Morton the last couple of years ago, and there's no reason not to think that he can't bounce back here (note he still owns an elite 40/14 K/W over 34.1 innings of work.) I like Morton in this matchup and I love the Braves to bounce back after two straight losses in this early contest. The price is definitely right too! Lay it, the play is the Braves. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-12-21 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -131 | 3-2 | Loss | -131 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
8* PITCHING MISMATCH on Arizona. I like Arizona to find a way to win this game. The Diamondbacks crushed the Fish here 11-3 last time and while it likely won't be quite as lop-sided, I still do expect Arizona to win handily. Zach Gallen (1-1, 3.04 ERA) used to pitch for the Marlins, going 1-3 with a 2.72 ERA, before being traded to Arizona for Jazz Chisholm. In 25 starts in Arizona Gallen has been as rock-steady as you could possibly hope for, posting a 2.85 ERA. Chisolm won't be playing for the Marlins today, he's on the injured list. Whoever the Marlins go with tonight (could be Nick Neidert, could be Trevor Rogers, or someone else), this play is based upon Arizona's starter. The Marlins are a poor 2-9 in their last 11 after allowing ten or more runs to an opponent. Look for Gallen and the Diamondbacks to get the job done in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-12-21 | Wizards v. Hawks -6 | Top | 116-120 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
10* NBA PERFECT STORM on the Hawks. The Hawks just beat Washington 125-124. Russell Westbrook broke Oscar Robertson's triple-double record and I believe that without Bradley Beal in the line-up, that the visiting side will now struggle to match pace with the Hawks. Both teams are playing competitively until the end, but with back-to-back home games vs. Cleveland and Charlotte respectively, this is not only a letdown spot for the Wizards, but also a look-ahead position as well. The Hawks are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 at home. Also note that Atlanta has won its last fie games by an average of 9.8 points, despite the one point victory last time out. Nate McMillan has brought a winning attitude to his new team and I expect that drive to continue here. Lay the points, the play is Atlanta. Good luck, Larry | |||||||
05-12-21 | Cubs v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL SLUG-FEST on the OVER Cubs/Indians. Cleveland held on for a tight 3-2 win over the Cubs. After a slow start the Tribe come in red hot, as they've won eight of their last ten, including two in a row. Interestingly, they've been trading Overs and Unders over their last five games and off the lower-scoring victory yesterday, everything points to this pattern continuing today. The Cubs will be looking to get back on track here, as they've now lost back-to-back games after a five-game win streak. But the bottom line is on this total, I don't at all trust either of these starting pitchers. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Zach Davies (2-2, 6.30 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the year, going seven scoreless vs. the Pirates on Friday. He wasn't even able to get a decision for his effort. While he's been better of late, note that he's still a devastating 0-1 with a 12.86 ERA on the road this season. Sam Hentges (1-0, 5.00) last start was postponed. So far he's give up five runs off 11 hits over two outings. Suffice it to say, I expect Hentges to "get the hook" early today. As stated off the top, starting pitching is a major issue for both teams today. Expect that to translate into offensive production. The play is the over. Good luck, Larry | |||||||
05-11-21 | Nets v. Bulls +6 | Top | 115-107 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
10* GAME OF WEEK on Bulls. The Brooklyn Nets are 44-24, while the Chicago Bulls are 29-39. The Nets are already preparing for the playoffs, as they enter having lost four of their last five. Overall they average 118.6 PPG, while allowing 114.6. Kevin Durant averages 28.2 PPG with 5.2 assists. The Bulls have split their last ten games, but they enter playing their best basketball of the season. They've won three in a row, beating Charlotte 120-99, Boston 121-99 and at Detroit most recently by a score of 108-96. Chicago already beat Brooklyn 115-107 in early April and I think it'll take the Nets down to the wire again here. Brooklyn is off the satisfying 125-119 road win at Denver (which was playing the second game of a back-to-back), and with a home game tomorrow night vs. the Spurs, this not only sets up as a letdown, but also a look-ahead in my opinion. Now throw in the fact that Chicago is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more straight SU/ATS wins/covers in a row, then this one is all wrapped up for me. The outright is possible, but I'm grabbing the points. The play is the Bulls. Good luck, Larry | |||||||
05-11-21 | Angels v. Astros -145 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH. I definitely like Marcus Stroman (3-3, 2.10 ERA) and the Mets in this matchup. John Means (4-0, 1.37) is fresh off a complete-game no-hitter, and I love going against pitchers off such a huge accomplishment. He lost his chance for the perfect game in the third-inning. Hard to say anything negative about Means, I simply don't feel his absurd numbers are realistic or sustainable. Regression is imminent in my opinion. Stroman won't be lacking for motivation. He's also typically a better home pitcher than on the road (although that's not the case this year, with a respectable 3.60 ERA at home, and a "lights out" 1.50 ERA on the road.) Regardless, Stroman enters with a sharp 29:7 K:BB over six starts this season. Stroman also has the advantage of having a strong bullpen. Means doesn't. While the Mets have struggled against left-handers somewhat, I look for them to ride their current "ace" to a victory here in front of the home town crowd, as I do believe Means is in line for a big letdown. The play is New York. Good luck, Larry | |||||||
05-11-21 | Orioles v. Mets -145 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH. I definitely like Marcus Stroman (3-3, 2.10 ERA) and the Mets in this matchup. John Means (4-0, 1.37) is fresh off a complete-game no-hitter, and I love going against pitchers off such a huge accomplishment. He lost his chance for the perfect game in the third-inning. Hard to say anything negative about Means, I simply don't feel his absurd numbers are realistic or sustainable. Regression is imminent in my opinion. Stroman won't be lacking for motivation. He's also typically a better home pitcher than on the road (although that's not the case this year, with a respectable 3.60 ERA at home, and a "lights out" 1.50 ERA on the road.) Regardless, Stroman enters with a sharp 29:7 K:BB over six starts this season. Stroman also has the advantage of having a strong bullpen. Means doesn't. While the Mets have struggled against left-handers somewhat, I look for them to ride their current "ace" to a victory here in front of the home town crowd, as I do believe Means is in line for a big letdown. The play is New York. Good luck, Larry | |||||||
05-10-21 | Bucks v. Spurs +7.5 | Top | 125-146 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Spurs. After five straight straight-up victories, including a tight 135-134 victory over Washington, before a 141-133 win over Houston two nights ago, the Bucks hit the road to play San Antonio, but they then return home to face the putrid Magic tomorrow night. This is Milwaukee's final non-conference game, with contests at Indiana, at home to Mimai and finishing at Chicago all up next. The Spurs play with revenge after a 120-113 loss to the Bucks on March 20th. I say the Spurs come to play hard tonight, and I expect Milwaukee to get caught looking ahead. Finally, note that San Antonio is in fact 7-1 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed 120 or more points in. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is San Antonio. Good luck, Larry | |||||||
05-10-21 | Red Sox -135 v. Orioles | 1-4 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
8* MONEY MONDAY PLAY on the Red Sox. I like Martin Perez (0-2, 4.42 ERA) and the Red Sox here over Jorge Lopez (1-3, 6.49) and the Orioles. Lopez gave up one run over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Mariners in his last outing. Lopez has struggled to go deep into games, which doesn't bode well here facing this dangerous Red Sox line-up and going up against the veteran Perez. Perez has to be feeling confiden today, as his team has already taken the first three games of this series. Perez is nothing to write home about, but his 5.26 ERA and 4-6 record vs. Baltimore is a whole lot better than Lopez's 0-1, 12.60 ERA in three appearances vs. Boston's record. The Orioles offense has gone cold, and I like Perez to take advantage. Lay the price, the play is Boston. Good luck, Larry | |||||||
05-10-21 | Reds -148 v. Pirates | Top | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
10* PERFECT STORM on the Reds. Tyler Mahle (1-1, 3.23 ERA), takes the hill for Cincinnati in the opener of this series, while Pittsburgh counters with the volatile Mitch Keller (2-3, 6.29). Keller actually comes in off a gem vs. the Padres in his last outing, going 5.2 scoreless. While Keller is 1-1 with a 3.41 ERA on the road, he's 1-2 with a 10.59 ERA at home. Mahle had his last start postponed due to rain. He gave up six runs over six innings, while striking out six in a no-decision to the Cubs in is last outing. Overall he's been extremely solid, especially on the road where he has a tiny 1.93 ERA. The Bucs broke a lengthy slide yesterday, but they're still just 1-8 in their last nine vs. a right-handed starter. Cincinnati is 14-6 in its last 20 vs. the NL Central. I'm laying the chalk here, but expecting a blowout. The play is the Reds. Good luck, Larry | |||||||
05-09-21 | Phillies -105 v. Braves | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
My MLB 9* ESPN Game of the Month is on the Phi Phillies at 7:08 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies entered the 2021 season having NOT made the postseason in the previous NINE years. The Phillies won their first four games of the 2021 season but were just 13-15 as the current week dawned this past Monday. The Phillies swept a four-game home series with the Brewers (Mon-Thu) and then crushed the Braves 12-2 Friday night in Atlanta. However, the Braves rallied for FOUR runs in the 12th inning for a stunning 8-7 win last night. Atlanta opened the 2021 season looking for a FOURTH consecutive NL East title (last season led the Dodgers 3-1 in the NLCS before losing THREE in a row) but the Braves opened the season 0-4. They climbed back to .500 at 12-12 but face the Phillies in the final game of this series Sunday night just 16-17. A pair of hot pitchers will be on the mound Sunday night on ESPN, as Philadelphia ace Aaron Nola (3-1, 2.89 ERA) will be opposed by Atlanta's Huascar Ynoa (3-1, 2.36 ERA). Nola has made seven starts this season with Philly going 5-2. He has an excellent 0.98 WHIP and .218 BAA to go along with his 2.89 ERA. He's familiar with the Braves, having made 21 starts against them (he's 11-6 with a 3.02 ERA / team is 13-8). Ynoa began the current season with just 11 major league appearances (five starts) and a 7.30 ERA. However, he's been a MUCH different pitcher in 2021. He's made seven appearances (six starts), going 3-1 (team is 4-2) with 2.36 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .187 BAA. Ynoa's won his last three starts (0.98 ERA) but I don't think he's the equal of Nola, at least not yet. The Braves pulled off a 'miracle' last night and I don't expect a repeat. Phillies take the "rubber match" of the series, as they battle the Mets for first place in the NL East, which looks similar to the NFL's NFC East in 2020. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-09-21 | Rockies v. Cardinals OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* NL Total of the Month is on Col/STL Over at 2:15 ET. The Colorado Rockies and the St Louis Cardinals complete a three-game series Sunday afternoon at Busch Stadium. The Cards go for a three-game sweep, after winning 5-0 and 9-8. The Cardinals were kept off the field from July 30 through August 14 last season but the Cards somehow managed to earn a wild card spot with a 30-28 record. It was the team's SEVENTH postseason appearance over the previous 10 years. St Louis was just 8-10 through April 21 but a 12-4 run has them atop the NL Central at 20-14. The Rockies were just 26-34 in 2020, after a 71-91 mark in 2019. The current season has NOT gone well, as the Rockies are currently 12-21 (worst record in the NL) and the team's 2-13 road mark is the worst in all of MLB. Taking the mound in the series finale will be Colorado's German Marquez (1-3, 6.21 ERA) and for St Louis it will be veteran Adam Wainwright (1-3, 4.72 ERA). Marquez is looking to bounce back from a disastrous outing this past Tuesday against San Francisco when he allowed EIGHT runs on six hits and two walks while retiring just two batters in a 12-4 loss to the Giants. Wainwright is coming off of his second-worst outing of the year, allowing five runs on seven hits, three walks and a hit batter in 5.2 innings (note: he was able to get a win in the Cards' 6-5 win!). Wainwright is 10-1 with a 1.56 ERA in 15 career outings against the Rockies, including 11 starts (team is 9-2). However, Wainwright is no longer that pitcher. The over/under number is modest (7 1/2) and note the following. Marquez has made three daytime starts in 2021, lasting just 10.1 innings while allowing 18 hits, 11 walks and 12 ERs. That gives him a 10.45 ERA, with opponents batting .409 against him. Now to Wainwright. He's also made three daytime starts and has lasted only 12.2 innings, 19 hits and 10Ers. His ERA is 7.11 and opponents have batted .333 against him. This one is Goin' Over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-09-21 | Heat +2 v. Celtics | Top | 130-124 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Mia Heat at 1:05 ET. The Miami Heat surprised most (all?) by reaching the NBA Finals last season, before falling to the Lakers. The Heat took down the East's No. 1 seed Milwaukee in the second round and Boston (No. 3 seed) in the Eastern Conference Finals. The current season has been a challenge for both the Heat and Celtics, as Miami is currently 36-31 (No. 6 seed) and Boston is 35-32 (No. 7). Boston will play host to Miami on Sunday afternoon (ESPN) and then take on the Heat again Tuesday night (TNT), also in TD Garden. BOTH teams desperately want to avoid the 7-10 "Play-In" tournament and if either team is able to sweep this two-game set, that team would likely avoid the 'play-in." The Heat and Celtics have met only once so far this season, back on Jan 6 in Miami when Boston won 107-105. For the Celtics, splitting this two-game series would give them the tiebreaker advantage (could be a difference-maker). Miami is coming off a 121-112 home win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday, as Jimmy Butler (21.6-7.0-7.2) scored 25 points but it was Tyler Herro (15.1-4.8-3.4) who provided the biggest spark with a game-high 27 points off the bench. Herro had not played since April 23 because of a foot injury. Miami's trade-deadline acquisition Victor Oladipo remains inactive due to right knee soreness. He has played only four games with his new team and hasn't suited up since April 8! Starting along with Butler is forward Ariza (9.2 & 4.7 in 26 games with Miami) and center Adebayo (18.9-9.0-5.4). in the backcourt, it's Nunn (14.3) and Robinson (13.0) with veteran PG Dragic (13.3 & 4.4 APG) coming off the bench. While the Heat have won EIGHT of 11, the Celtics have lost six of their last 10 after a season-high six-game winning streak (April 7-17). Despite Kemba Walker's (18.9-3.9-4.9) season-high 33 points Friday at Chicago, the Celtics lost 121-99 to the Bulls. Jayson Tatum (26.3-7.3-4.4) and Jaylen Brown (24.7-6.0-3.4) have led the way for Boston all season but Tatum was 3-of-15 from the floor vs the Bulls (0 of 7 on three-pointers) to finish with NINE points! As for Brown, he missed his second straight game against Chicago after he sprained his right ankle late in last Sunday's loss to Portland. Danny Ainge has said that Brown will "probably" return on Sunday against Miami." Miami is playing MUCH better than Boston right now and a Sunday win would be HUGE, as Atlanta (No. 5 seed) is just a half-game ahead of them and the New York (No. 4 seed) is juts ONE game ahead of them a STRING finished could allow the Heat to grab the No. 4 seed, giving them the homecourt edge in the first round. Let's NOT get ahead of ourselves, play the Heat of Sunday. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-08-21 | Nets v. Nuggets +4 | Top | 125-119 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Ultimate Underdog of the Month is on the Den Nuggets at 10:10 ET. When the Brooklyn Nets acquired James Harden from Houston in mid-January, the NBA's latest "Super team" team featured Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, and Harden. However, while KD is averaging 28.0-6.9-5.1, he has missed 37 games. Kyrie checks in averaging 27.4-4.9-6.3 but has missed 17 games. As for Harden, he has contributed 25.4-8.7-11.0 in his 34 games with the Nets but he last played April 5. Injuries to these three All Stars have contributed to the uneven play of Brooklyn and the Nets head to Denver for a game with the Nuggets Saturday night on a FIVE-game losing streak. The slide has seen the Nets slip to 43-24 and into a tie with the Bucks. BOTH teams are three games back of the 76ers, who own the East's top record at 46-21. All teams have just FIVE games remaining, so the Nets and Bucks will battle for the No. 2 seed. The Nuggets are coming off a 127-120 loss at Utah on Friday night and won't be fully healthy for the rest of the year. That said, Denver continues to play through those injuries. The Nuggets are 10-3 since losing PG Jamal Murray (21.2-4.0-4.8) to a torn ACL back on April 12. Denver is also missing Monte Morris (hamstring), Will Barton (hamstring) and P.J. Dozier (adductor strain). Morris (10.3 & 3.2 APG) is closest to returning, followed by Barton (12.7-4.0-3.2), but Dozier (7.7) could miss the rest of the season. Denver is led by MVP candidate Nikola Jokic (26.4-10.9-8.5) plus SF Porter (19.1 & 7.5) is having a career season and the acquisition of Aaron Gordon (10.0 & 4.9) from Orlando has worked great. He's not scoring as much as he did with the Magic but he's been a "great fit," with Denver going 17-5 in his 22 games. 30-year-old rookie PG Facundo Campazzo has averaged 9.2 & 6.0 APG in the 13 games without Murray. Tough spot for Denver coming from Salt Lake City with no rest but the Nuggets will be playing their FINAL home game of the regular season, as they'll play their final four games on the road. Denver is just ONE game behind the Clippers for the West's No. 3 seed and should bring their "A-game" here vs a slumping Brooklyn team that beat them 122-116 back on Jan 12. Why is Denver an underdog? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-08-21 | White Sox -156 v. Royals | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
My 8* Division Game of the Month (AL Central) is on the Chi White Sox at 7:10 ET. The Chicago White Sox made the playoffs for the first time since 2008 in 2020, ending a run of SEVEN consecutive losing seasons by going 35-25. The 2021 version is improved from last season and expectations entering the current season were high. The KC Royals made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2014 (lost Game 7 to the Giants) and in 2015 (beat the Mets 4-1) but entered 2021 off five straight non-winning seasons. KC lost 194 games in 2018, 103 games in 2019 and then went 26-34 in 2020 (on pace of 93 losses in a 162-game schedule).KC lost 104 games in 2018, 103 games in 2019 and then went 26-34 in 2020 (on pace of 93 losses in a 162-game schedule).Not much was expected of the Royals in 2020. The White Sox and Royals are playing a three-game series this weekend in Kansas City and Chicago won Friday's game 3-0. Combined with the Cleveland Indians' loss to the Cincinnati Reds, the White Sox moved into first place in the American League Central at 17-13. As for the Royals, after an 11-3 win on May 1, they were 16-9 and sat atop the AL Central. However, the Royals take the field Saturday having lost SIX in a row. The White Sox will send veteran Lance Lynn (2-1, 1.82 ERA) to the mound on Saturday, after spending 15 days on the IL. KC counters with left-hander Daniel Lynch (0-0, 5.79 ERA). Lynch is making just his second career. He took the mound this past Monday and lasted 4.1 innings in an 8-6 loss to Cleveland. He did not get a decision, allowing four hits, four walks and three ERs. The 33-year-old Lynn was a workhorse last season for Texas, leading the majors in starts (13) and innings pitched (84). Many will remember him as an integral part of a St Louis rotation when he won 71 games over a five-year stretch from 2012-17 (he missed all of 2016 with an injury). Lynn may be just 2-2 in his four starts this season for Chicago but he owns a 1.82 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and opponents have batted just .215 against him. In 10 career starts against KC, he's 5-2 with a 3.73 ERA (his teams are 8-2). Lynn vs Lynch is a mismatch plus the fact that Lynch is a lefty clinches the paly. Chicago was 14-0 against left-handed starters in 2020 (averaging 7.1 RPG) and has continued that success in 2021, going 5-1 while averaging 7.8 RPG. That's 19-1 or a 95% winning rate. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
05-08-21 | Reds v. Indians -110 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* IL Game of the Year is on the Cle Indians at 6:10 ET. The Cleveland Indians won the AL Central title from 2016-18 but missed the playoffs in 2019, despite 93 wins. Cleveland was back in the postseason last year (35-25) but was eliminated by the Yankees in the wild card round, Meanwhile, the Cincinnati Reds ended a six-year postseason drought last season by going 31-29 to earn a wild card spot in the expanded playoffs but were also eliminated right away by Atlanta when the Reds were held scoreless over two games (22 innings). These two Ohio rivals met back in Cincinnati (Apr 16-18) for a three-game series with the Reds taking two of the three. That came as somewhat of a surprise, as the Reds had totaled just 27 runs, hit .196 as a team and struck out 121 times while losing 10 of their last 12 games with the Indians (since July 2018). The teams opened a three-game series in Cleveland last night and Wade Miley pitched the 17th no-hitter in Cincinnati Reds' history, as Cincy's 3-0 win got them to .500 on the season (15-15), while the Indians fell to 17-14. Luis Castillo (1-3, 6.07 ERA) will take the mound in Game 2 of the series and the team's Opening Day starter has quite an act to follow. The Reds' pitching staff has thrown back-to-back shutouts, having won 1-0 in 10 innings on Thursday at home over the White Sox. The Cleveland Indians will counter with Aaron Civale (4-0, 3.20 ERA). Castillo was BRUTAL in the team's Opening Day loss, lasting just 3.1 innings while allowing 10 runs (eight earned). He rebounded in his next start (seven scoreless innings in an 11-4 home win over Pittsburgh) but in four starts since, he's 0-2 (team is 0-4) with a 5.59 ERA. As for Civale, he's 4-0 in six starts (Cleveland is 5-1) and in just this third season, is looking for a career-high FIFTH win. Civale totaled just SEVEN wins over 22 career starts spanning the 2019 and 2020 seasons. This sets up as a "great spot" for the Indians. Cleveland had won FIVE in a row and nine of 11 before getting no-hit by Miley. Cleveland had totaled 29 runs during its five-game winning streak (5.8 RPG) and the Cleveland bats have given Civale a run-support average of SEVEN in his first six starts. Good luck...Larry |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |