Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-22-19 | Saints v. Seahawks OVER 44.5 | Top | 33-27 | Win | 100 | 22 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on NO/Sea Over at 4:25 ET. The New Orleans Saints survived Week 1 when they won 30-28 on a 58-yard FG as time expired at home against the Houston Texans. The Saints then traveled to LA in Week 2, for their big "revenge" game with the Rams. The Saints lost at home to the Rams in last year's NFC championship game, a contest made infamous when a blatant pass interference on CB Nickell Robey-Coleman late in regulation was missed by referees. The non-call forced New Orleans to settle for a field goal and eventually, the Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime. The Saints lost 27-9 to the Rams last Sunday and adding insult to injury, future Hall-of-Fame QB Drew Brees was KO'd with a thumb injury. He's since undergone surgery and will be out for an extended period of time. The Saints are in Seattle on Sunday against the Seahawks, who have opened 2-0 for the first time since the 2013 season Teddy Bridgewater has made 29 NFL starts but Saints head coach Sean Payton has declined to reveal who will start the game, Bridgewater or second-year pro Taysom Hill. He insists both QBs will see action. "We'll have the right plan relative to what those guys are doing," Payton told reporters. "Look, these guys have been here now two seasons. It's just kind of taking a step back and looking at the things we want to do with those guys in the game and putting that plan in place this week in practice." Bridgewater completed 17-of-30 passes for 165 yards after replacing Brees in last week's loss to Rams and is looking to re-establish himself after a horrific knee injury just prior to the 2016 season cost him his starting job with Minnesota. " Seattle's Russell Wilson is off to an excellent start, completing 78.2% with five TDs and zero INTs, giving him a QB rating of 134.5. However, the offensive line has allowed him to be sacked eight times in two games and the running game, which led the NFL with 160.0 YPG in 2018, is averaging just 111.5 YPG (14th) on 3e.9 YPC. Seattle's "Legion of Boom" defense is a thing of the past. Cincy's Andy Dalton ripped them for 418 passing yards (35 of 51 with two TDs and zero INTs), as the Seahawks were lucky to win, 21-20. Even with Big Ben missing half the game last Sunday at Pittsburgh, the Steelers scored 26 points. All that said, Seattle is 15-0 in September home games since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, making the Seahawks the ONLY unbeaten team in September during that time frame.New Orleans' defense had no answer for Houston's DeShaun Watson in Week 1 (268 yards passing with three TDs and 40 yards rushing and a fourth TD), so expect Russell Wilson (a veteran version of Watson) to have a big day. However, I believe Bridgewater is one of the better backup QBs in the league and as noted above, Seattle's defense is a mere shell of its former self. Bridgewater has had a full week of practice and Sean Payton also has offensive packages for Taysom Hill. This one is Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-22-19 | Texans v. Chargers -3 | Top | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET. The Los Angeles Chargers needed OT to against the Colts in Week 1 to escape with a 30-24 win. LA is back at home on Sunday, looking to bounce back from a mistake-filled 13-10 loss at Detroit in Week 2. LA's miscues were personified by a third-quarter drive during which it had two TDs nullified and saw running back Austin Ekeler lose a fumble at the one-yard line. The Houston Texans visit The StubHub Center in Carson, Ca 1-1 as well, having lost at New Orleans 30-28 in Week 1 on a 58-yard FG as time expired but then surviving a failed two-point conversion try by the Jaguars in Houston at home in Week 2, eking out a 13-12 victory. Houston QB Deshaun Watson was terrific in Week 1 at New Orleans, passing for 268 yards (3 TDs, 1 INT and 114.3 QB rating) plus rushing for 40 yards and a fourth TD. However, as the Texans have seen too often, he passed for just 159 yards against Jacksonville (0 TDs, 0 INTs and a 70.9 rating), while rushing for just FIVE yards. The Texans were thought to be in big trouble when RB Lamar Smith was lost in the preseason but Hyde (173 yards / 5.8 YPC) and Johnson (88 yards / 5.9 YPC) have surprised, with Houston averaging 153.0 YPG on the ground (5th), on 5.8 YPC. One would think the team's solid running game would be a HUGE plus for Watson but the Texans have yet to shore up their NFL-worst pass protection. Watson has been sacked 10 times in the season's first two weeks. Philip Rivers (the 4th pick of the 2004 draft) will make his 209th consecutive start on Sunday, tying him with Eli Manning for the second-longest QB starting streak in NFL history. It's ironic that it comes in a week in which Manning, who was the No. 1 pick in the 2004 draft, was benched by the Giants for rookie Daniel Jones. Another alum from that 2004 draft, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger (the No. 11 overall selection), will miss the rest of the season with an elbow injury suffered last week against Seattle. Meanwhile, Rivers just keeps chugging along. He's topped 4,000 passing in 10 of his last 11 seasons, throwing between 26 and 34 TD passes per year in that stretch plus has posted QB ratings of over 100 in FIVE of the 11. He's got a 377-to-180 TD-to-INT ratio for his career, after throwing 60 TDs with just 22 INTs the last two seasons. The Chargers were also expected to have running game issues with Melvin Gordon's holdout but Austin Ekeler has 287 yards from scrimmage (124 rushing, 163 receiving) and Justin Jackson is averaging an amazing 8.9 YPC while adding 116 yards rushing. The small MLS venue in Carson (30,000 capacity) has never provided the Chargers with much of a home edge since the move from San Diego (6-10-1 ATS) but LA's top pass-rushers, Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram could be huge difference-makers in this one, as Watson has been sacked at least FOUR times in EIGHT straight games. The Chargers had 424 yards at Detroit last Sunday but scored just 10 points, as two TDs were nullified by penalties (9 penalties in all for 70 yards). Throw in two TOs (one at the Lions' one-yard line) plus two missed FGs and you can see why. DO NOT expect a repeat performance. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-22-19 | Giants +6.5 v. Bucs | 32-31 | Win | 100 | 54 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 4:05 ET. The 0-2 NY Giants head to Tampa to take on the 1-1 Bucs this Sunday but Eli Manning will NOT be the Giants staring QB come kickoff. Manning, a two-time Super Bowl MVP, has been New York's starting QB since the 10th game of 2004, Manning's rookie season.He has started all but ONE game for the Giants since the start of the 2005 season but is 8-25 over the past three years.Sure, there's plenty of blame to go around but it's understandable that the Giants are making a change at the NFL's most important position. Daniel Jones was drafted in the first round with the sixth overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft. He'll square off against Jameis Winston, who was drafted as the first overall pick by the Buccaneers in the 2015 NFL Draft. The Giants are averaging 420.0 YPG (6th) but have not turned those yards into points, averaging only 15.5 PPG (27th). The first order of business for the 6-5 rookie from Duke will be to do just that.Jones completed 29-of-34 passes for 416 yards and two touchdowns during some impressive preseason play. He has one of the NFL's most versatile RBs in the NFL to help out, as Saquon Barkley ranks second in the NFL with 227 rushing yards and owns an eye-popping 7.8 yards per attempt. TE Evan Engram was Eli's top target (17 catches / 1 TD) but it's great news that WR Sterling Shepard (190 catches his first three seasons with 14 TDs) has cleared the concussion protocol over the course of this week and avoided an injury designation on Friday. Bruce Arians is a highly-respected head coach and it will be interesting to see if he can "fix" Jameis Winston. Winston was awful in a Week 1 home loss to the 49ers (194 passing yards with 1 TD and 3 INTs and a QB rating of 45.4). Two of his INTs were returned for TDs! That said, in Week 2 at Carolina (a 20-13 Bucs win), he played a mistake-free game with 208 yards, one TD and zero INTs, for a QB rating of 103.4). However, Winston's consistency is his inconsistency. He can be a turnover 'machine.' He's not getting much help from Tampa's running game so far in 2019, which is averaging 111.5 YPG on 3.9 YPC. Here's the bottom line. Winston's inconsistency has made the Bucs a very poor home favorite during Winston's tenure, checking in at 6-12 ATS since 2015. The Giants have won FOUR of the last five meetings in the regular season against Tampa Bay, including a 38-35 triumph at home last year in which Barkley ran for 142 yards and scored three times. Yes, the Giants went 8-24 SU in 2017 and 2018 but note that after losing and failing to cover at Dallas in Week 1 of 2018, the Giants finished the season with SEVEN straight covers as a road dog, before opening 2019 at Dallas in Week 1 of 2019 with a 35-17 loss (as a 7-point dog). Digging a little deeper, let me point out that since the start of the 2017 season, the Giants are 11-5 ATS as a road underdog, with THREE of those ATS losses coming at Dallas. Eliminate the hated-Cowboys and the Giants are 11-2 ATS as road dogs against the rest of the league. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-22-19 | Falcons v. Colts -1 | Top | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 119 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET. Falcons head coach Dan Quinn denies he's on the "hot seat" in Atlanta but I'm pretty sure he's mighty glad that Matt Ryan drove the Falcons 75yards in just over a minute to what turned out to be the game-winning TD with 2:10 left in last Sunday night's game vs the Eagles. The Falcons avoided an 0-2 start but now travel to Indianapolis to take on the Colts and if history is any guide, winning will not come easy.The Falcons have won just TWICE (in 16 meetings) in a series that began back in Atlanta's expansion year of 1966. That may not be all that relevant but I'll add some current trends later, that are. The Colts have opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returns to Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since Aug 24, when fans booed as Andrew Luck left the field before announcing his retirement (real classy move!). Atlanta's once-feared offense is averaging a modest 18.0 PPG (23rd) and QB Ryan, who had just SEVEN interceptions all of 2018 (608 attempts), already has FIVE after two games (89 attempts),including TWO in the red zone. Atlanta's rushing game is adding just 65.0 YPG (28th), as Devonta Freeman has run for only 41 yards (2.2 YPC) in two games, with no run longer than nine. Atlanta's rush D was gashed on the road by the Vikings in Week 1 (172 yards), in game Atlanta trailed 28-0 into the fourth quarter (final was 28-12). The Falcons are allowing 24.0 PPG (23rd) after two games. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts, who could easily be 2-0 to start 2019. OK, Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew luck, throwing for just 336 yards after two games. However, he's completing 69.1% and has five TD passes and just one INT. The big news in Indy is the strength of the team's OL and its running game. Marlon Mack ranks No. 3 among all RBs with 225 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) and the Colts are tied with the Vikings as the NFL's second-best rushing team (185.0 YPG on 5.5 YPC). Indy's D is so-so but Atlanta lacks a running game and Ryan has always been a much better QB at home, than on the road. Indy, like the Vikings, should be able to control the tempo of the game by running and as noted, Brissett has been a playmaker. I could point to the fact that the Falcons are on a 1-8 ATS run as a road underdog but since the Colts are barely favored, I'll rely more on the fact the the Falcons are a 'money-burning' 4-13 ATS (that's a 76% "go-against") on the road since the start of the 2017 season. I was "all over" the Vikings against the Falcons in Week 1 and then had Atlanta in its SNF win in Week 2. I make it THREE in a row with Atlanta games this season by taking the Colts in Week 3. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-21-19 | West Virginia -4.5 v. Kansas | 29-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on West Va at 4:30 ET. Both West Va and Kansas began the 2019 season with new head coaches. Neal Brown took over at West Va, after leading Troy to three straight bowl wins from 2016-18 and a 31-8 overall record. As for Kansas, the Jayhawks, mired in a decade-long slump since Mark Mangino was allowed to 'quietly' resign after the 2009 season, hired Les Miles. Miles began his career at Oklahoma St but he made his name at LSU, taking the Tigers to 11 straight bowl games from 2005-2015, winning the BCS championship in 2007 and losing it in 2011. His record was 112-032 in that span but after a 2-2 start in 2016, was fired. Kansas signed him to a five-year contract last November. West Va opened the season with an uninspiring 20-13 home win over James Madison and then got blown out 38-7 at Missouri. However, behind Austin Kendall's 272 yards and three TD passes, the Mounrtaineers beat NC State 44-27 as a 7-point home dog. Brown has just three starters back from an offense that avergaed 40.3 PPG. QB Kendall is a graduate transfer from Oklahoma and three freshmen receivers helped infuse some much-needed life into the offense last Saturday, as Sam James caught nine passes for 155 yards (1 TD), Winston Wright had four catches and Ali Jennings had three catches, including a fourth-quarter TD. Brown used three first-time starters on the offensive line against North Carolina State. West Va entered the contest averaging an FBS-worst 1.1 YPC but ran for 173 yards (6.2 YPC)! "The Hat's" career at Kansas got started with a fortunate 24-17 home win over Indiana St (Jayhawks scored the go-ahead TD with just over two minutes left in the game). That unimpressive victory was followed by a shocking 12-7 home loss to Coastal Carolina. So what happened a week ago last Friday? Kansas won 48-24 at BC, as an 18 1/2-point underdog. Senior QB Carter Stanley (107 yards passing , two interceptions vs Coastal Carolina) rebounded from an interception on his first pass attempt against the Eagles by completing 12 straight and finishing 20-of-27 for 238 yards and three TD. Kansas ran for 329 yards on 7.3 YPC. What's going on here? The win ended a 48-game road losing streak against Powe-5 schools for the Jayhawks. Can the Jayhawks actually move to 3-1 with a win here? Kansas entered 2019 with a 6-82 record in Big 12 play the last 10 years and last won its league-opener back in 2009, Mangino's last season with the team. Kansas has lost NINE straight conference openers since, and SEVEN of eight to West Va since it joined the Big 12. That includes FIVE straight losses to West Va by the scores of 51-13, 49-0, 48-21, 56-34 and 38-22. I was never much of a fan of "the Hat" and I'll side with Brown, whose Troy teams the last three seasons averaged between 30.7 and 33.7 PPG on offense, while allowing just 18.5-to-22.1 PPG on defense. This guy can coach and look for him to prove it at Morgantown before he's through. Kansas opened 2-1 in 2018 as well but finished 3-9. That BC game was a 'mirage!' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-21-19 | Appalachian State v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on North Carolina at 3:30 ET. Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a 5-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. The Tar Heels upset South Carolina in Charlotte 24-20 as a 12 1/2-point dog on Aug 31 and then, after watching a 17-3 first-quarter lead evaporate (UNC trailed 25-20 with about 4 1/2 minutes left), pulled it together and scored a TD and added a two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining for a 28-25 victory. However, the Tar Heels lost their first true road game of 2019 at Wake Forest, 24-18. North Carolina used fourth-quarter comebacks to win its first two games of the season and came back from 21-3 down in the final quarter against Wake but time ran out on them. 2-0 Appalachian State comes to Chapel Hill this Saturday, after enjoying an early-season bye week. The Mountaineers scored a combined 98 points in home victories over East Tennessee State and Charlotte to open the season and are certainly one of the top contenders in the Sun Belt (note: App St received 12 votes in the national coaches poll this week). RB Darrynton Evanshas rushed for 333 yards in two games (10.1 YPC / 4 TDs), while QB Zac Thomas has completed 68.2% for 332 yards with five TDs and zero INTs. He finished with 21 TDPs and 10 rushing TDs last season, going 10-1 as the team's starter. He's now 12-1 as a starter and has led the Mountaineers to EIGHT straight wins. Appalachian State is averaging 49.0 PPG (12th) and 276.5 YPG rushing (14th) but of course, the team's first two opponents leave much to be desired. North Carolina freshman Sam Howell has passed for 701 yards with six TDs and zero INTs plus has two RBs making contributions, Javonte Williams (205 yards on 5.5 YPC) and Michael Carter (203 yards on 5.1 YPC).These schools are just 163 miles apart but will meet for the first time since 1940. Appalachian State's transition to FBS staus has gone smoothly, as the Mountaineers are 41-11 the last four seasons, going to and WINNING four bowl games. However, all that success came under head coach Scott Satterfield, who is now at Louisville. Elijah Drinkwitz is in his first year as a head coach in 2019 and home wins over ETSU and Charlotte haven't proved much of anything. This will be the Mountaineers' first road game and North Carolina will surely look to keep an in-state school like Appalachian State "in its place!" Howell is the first-ever first true freshman to start a season at QB for North Carolina and he opened his career with two straight 4th-quarter comeback wins, before falling just short in his third game. Mack Brown has reinvigorated the UNC program with confidence and with the school's ACC opener looming next Saturday (against No. 1 Clemson), Brown surely won't want to go into that contest off two straight losses. No one will ever forget Appalachian State's infamous 34-32 upset at Michigan (as a 4-TD underdog) back in 2007 but let me point out that the Mountaineers are 1-15 SU against Power-5 schools this century. No real number to 'sneak under' in this one. Take the Tar Heels. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-21-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Ohio -3 | Top | 45-25 | Loss | -115 | 96 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Sep Game of the Month is on Ohio U at 2:00 ET. The Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns won NINE games each season in a four-year stretch from 2011 through 2014, playing in four consecutive New Orleans Bowls (ULL won AND covered each one!). However, ULL opened this season on a three-year run of just 18-21, including two bowl losses. The Ragin' Cajuns opened the 2019 season with a 38-28 loss to Miss St (game was played in New Orleans, not Lafayette), before winning home games over Liberty (35-14) and Texas Southern (77-6). ULL was a 19-point underdog against Miss St, so the team heads into its first true road game of the season a perfect 3-0 ATS. Ohio U opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but has lost two straight since, both on the road. The Bobcats lost 20-10 at Pitt on Aug 7 and then last Saturday, fell just short in a 33-31 loss at Marshall. That Pitt loss hardly looks so bad now (ask No. 13 Penn St about the Panthers) and remember, Marshall lost by just SEVEN points at Boise St the week before. Ohio QB Nathan Rourke was spectacular at Marshall, passing for 215 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, while adding 118 rushing (on just nine carries) and a fourth TD. As noted earlier, this is ULL's first true road game of 2019 and winning in Athens has not been easy for visiting teams, as of late. The Bobcats last lost a home game back on 10/7/17 (26-23 in OT to Central Michigan) and enter this contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Want more? How about these two factoids. Ohio has averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak plus going back to the start of the 2017 season, checks in 8-2 ATS at home over FBS foes. Frank Solich has done a GREAT job at Ohio (NINE bowl appearances over the last 10 seasons) and many think this year's team could win its first MAC championship since 1968. The Bobcats really need a win here, as they get next weekend off, before playing their next EIGHT games against MAC foes, including FOUR weekday games in November. ULL is in the WRONG place at the WRONG time in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-21-19 | California v. Ole Miss -2 | 28-20 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Ole Miss at 12:00 ET. California is off to its third consecutive 3-0 start and entered the AP top-25 last Sunday at No. 23. Cal has relied on an excellent defense to earn a season-opening win over UC-Davis, a 20-19 upset at then-No. 14 Washington and then another home win over North Texas last Saturday. 27-13 and 23-17 home wins over UC-Davis and North Texas are hardly impressive efforts but what is impressive is that Cal enters this contest in Oxford having allowed 23 points or less in 10 straight games. The Ole Miss Rebels were just 5-7 last year and have won SIX or less games in each of the last three years, making the school's last bowl appearance back in 2015. That Sugar-Bowl winning team finished 10th in the final AP poll with a 10-3 record. How quickly things have fallen apart in Oxford. Matt Luke became the interim head coach at Ole Miss after Hugh Freeze was forced to resign back in June of 2017. After a late season push allowed Ole Miss to finish 6–6, the interim tag on November 26, 2017 and he became 37th head football coach in school history. However, last year's 5-7 record (1-7 in the SEC) has put some pressure on Luke. Luke sure didn't "stand pat," as he hired two successful former head coaches as his offensive and defensive coordinators. Rich Rodriguez (OC) and Mike MacIntyre (DC) are his new coordinators. The Rebels D played well in the team's season opener but the offense was a 'dud' (173 total yards and 13 FDs) in a 15-10 loss at Memphis. However, Rich-Rod's new offense has averaged 35.5 points in back-to-back home wins over Arkansas and Southeastern Louisiana plus that ever-improving Ole Miss defense held both Arkansas and SE Louisiana to fewer than 70 yards rushing. Cal's D ranks 34th in scoring (16.3 PPG) and 43rd in total D (313.7 YPG) but while sophomore QB Chase Garbers may be 9-4 as a starter, he's completing only 52.9% of his passes for a modest 478 yards (Cal ranks 118th with 159.3 YPG through the air). RB Brown leads the way with 324 yards (5.0 YPC) for a solid rushing attack that averages 191.3 YPG (48th). However, I expect Cal's offense to have some problems here in Oxford, as the Bears come in averaging only 23.3 PPG (95th) on 350.7 YPG (100th). I noted earlier that Luke brought in Rich-Rod and Mike MacIntyre and these two former he coaches know Cal well having recently been head coaches at ASU and Colorado, respectively. In fact, the duo has won FIVE of its last six meetings vs Cal. Ole Miss QB Corral started four games last season but seems to be 'finding his footing' after a poor effort at Memphis ( 9 of 19 for 93 yards without a TD and one INT). He's completed 37 of 54 at home the last two games, throwing for 485 yards with four TDs and zero INTs. Cal's running game has also perked up, rushing for 237 and 220 yards the last two Saturdays. RB Phillips has put together back-to-back 100 yards games (243 yards with three TDs), after gaining only 62 yards at Memphis. Is Cal really deserving of a top-25 ranking? We'll find out here but my 'bet' says the answer is N-O! This will be a 9 a.m. Pacific time kickoff for Cal and the heat and humidity of Oxford will surely not help the Bears as the game wears on. Ole Miss hasn’t lost a non-conference home game since September of 2012, when Texas won 66-31. The Rebels are a PERFECT 17-0 SU vs non-conference opponents in Oxford since that defeat. I say the Rebels make it 18 in a row, here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-21-19 | Michigan State v. Northwestern OVER 37.5 | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Mich State/Northwestern Over at 12:00 ET. Michigan State and Northwestern meet at Evanston in the Big Ten opener for each school this Saturday at 12 noon ET. The Spartans are coming off a disappointing 10-7 loss at home to Arizona State last weekend, while the Wildcats earned their first win of the season last Saturday, topping UNLV 30-14. Michigan State did very little offensively against the Sun Devils, after putting up 51 points the previous Saturday against Western Michigan, while gaining 582 yards. MSU scored just once on ASU and then had a potential game-tying FG get wiped off the board in the final seconds due to a penalty. Northwestern opened the season with a 17-7 loss at Stanford on Aug 31, gaining a pathetic 210 yards. That performance looks even worse now, as Stanford has allowed 45 points in each of its last two games, while allowing 492 and 545 yards, respectively. The Wildcats beat UNLV 30-14 last Saturday at home, rolling up 441 yards, including 276 on the ground (5.5 YPC). MSU had plenty complaints about the officiating in the ASU loss, as the Spartans outgained the Sun Devils 404-to-216 in total yards. 10 penalties surely hurt but so did THREE missed FGs attempts and poor execution in critical points of the game. QB Brian Lewerke passed for 291 yards but did not throw a TD, after passing fo 314 yards and three TDs vs Western Michigan. The Michigan State Spartans ground game is averaging a modest 157.3 YPG (81st), with Elijah Collins leading the way with 281 yards (6.4 YPC) and one TD. MSU's defense is a good as ever, allowing 11.3 PPG (12th) on 216.0 YPG (3rd), including 23.3 YPG on the ground (1st). The Wildcats ran for 276 yards on the ground against UNLV (5.5 YPC) but as noted, the MSU run defense is pretty good. The key for Northwestern will be QB Hunter Johnson. He transferred from Clemson in 2017 and sat out last year. The Wildcats are counting on him to fulfill his promise, as he was rated as a five-star recruit and was ranked among the top recruits in the 2017 class. Johnson was ranked by Rivals.com as the number 18 overall player (across every position) in the nation and was the 2016 Rivals 5-star challenge quarterback MVP. Northwestern has won its last THREE meetings against Michigan State and FOUR of the last five, overall. Northwestern’s record as an underdog (14-5-1 ATS its last 20) and Dantonio’s 3-10 ATS mark as a road favorite point to the Wildcats. That said, I like the OVER even more. The total is currently below 40 and note that the Wildcats have averaged 340 passing yards in their last three meetings with MSU (expect a breakout game by Johnson). Also, let's NOT forget that MSU scored 51 points on 582 yards against Western Michigan. Then last Saturday, penalties, missed FGs and poor execution at critical points kept MSU to just seven points despite gaining over 400 yards. This game starts early (12 noon ET) and goes OVER before the start of the 4th quarter. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-20-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -108 | Top | 9-0 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the SD Padres at 10:10 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks begin their final road series of the 2019 season tonight in San Diego.A six-game losing streak from Sep 8-13 effectively took Arizona out of the running in the National League wild-card race and now it looks as if Ketel Marte, a 2019 All Star (.329 / 32 HRs / 92 RBI), will be sidelined indefinitely while dealing with back inflammation. The Diamondbacks enter the weekend needing to make up FIVE games (with just nine remaining) in order to grab the second wild card,. Considering that FOUR teams are between the 78-75 D'backs and that final wild card berth leaves their chances at "slim and none!"The 69-84 Padres are already guaranteed a better record than last year's 66-96 finish but they enter having lost SEVEN of their last eight on the way to the team's NINTH consecutive losing season. Taking the mound tonight will be Merrill Kelly (11-14, 4.49 ERA) and Eric Lauer (8-9, 4.60 ERA). Kelly has been Arizona's best starting pitcher in September, going 2-1 with a 1.35 ERA in three starts, after working seven scoreless innings in a 1-0 win over Cincinnati last Saturday. The 30-year-old began September with a similar performance at home against San Diego (9/3), striking out nine while pitching seven scoreless innings of a 2-1 Arizona win. Lauer's road struggles continued in last Saturday's 11-10 loss at Colorado, as he allowed six runs (four earned) over just 2.1 innings, leaving him with a 4-6 record and 6.27 ERA in 14 starts away from home (Padres are 7-7). However, here at Petco Park (in 14 starts), Lauer's ERA is 3.22, that's THREE full runs lower than his road ERA. That, coupled with Kelly's 5.89 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 15 road starts in 2019 (D'backs are 5-10), help set up this play. I noted earlier that Kelly pitched seven scoreless innings against the Padres on Sep 3 but will add that in his other three 2019 starts against the Padres, he's lasted just 12.2 innings, allowing 18 hits and 11 ERs for a 7.82 ERA. Getting back to Lauer, he's 2-2 with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP against Arizona in five career starts (Padres are 3-2). The away/home dichotomy of tonight's two starters puts me on San Diego in this one, buoyed by Lauer's sold numbers against Arizona and Kelly's struggles against the Padres prior to that Sep 3 outing. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-20-19 | Air Force +8.5 v. Boise State | 19-30 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 22 m | Show | |
My 8* Friday Night Lights Play is on Air Force at 9:00 ET. It would be more than fair to call Boise St the “Gonzaga of College Football." After all, the Broncos began to ascend to prominence on the gridiron in the late 1990s, about the same time the Bulldogs began 'making noise' on the hardwood. Twenty years later, the Broncos and Bulldogs keep winning. The Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs Boston College was cancelled due to inclement weather) but the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the last 20 years. The Broncois opened the 2019 season unranked but their 3-0 start has them in the AP top-25 at No. 20. Boise St opened 2019 with a huge comeback win at FSU (trailed 31-13 in the second quarter but won, 36-31), before winning home games over Marshall (14-7) and FCS Portland St (45-10). Visiting Boise Friday night will be Air Force, fresh off its 30-23 (OT) win at Colorado last Saturday. Air Force is 2-0 and ranks second in the nation in rushing with 356.0 YPG. QB Donald Hammond has thrown just 12 passes but he should not be overlooked. The Air Force defense held Colgate to seven points on just 161 yards in its season opener but really impressed by allowing Colorado a modest 23 points on 325 yards last Saturday in Boulder. That's after the Buffs had scored 52 points on 475 yards vs Colorado St (in Denver) and 34 points on 464 yards in a home OT win over Nebraska. True freshman QB Hank Bachmeier had a HUGE game vs FSU (407 yards) but has averaged a more modest 260 YPG with three TDs and two INTs in his last two games. It's not good news that Boise lost its top-2 WRs from last year and that early NFL draftee RB Alex Mattison (1,415 YR, 17 TDs) left a 'hole' in the backfield. No returning RB gained as much as 200 yards in 2018. Head coach Harsin has used a "RB by committee" to open 2019. Mahone had 142 yards in the opener but just 73 yards in the last two games. Holmani had 103 yards vs Marshall but just 113 in Games 1 and 3. Boise’s string of 10 straight years with a 1,000-yard rusher might come to end. Boise's famed "blue carpet" has not produced the kind of results Boise St bettors have liked, as the Broncos are just 17-36-1 their last 53 games as a home favorite. As for Calhoun's Falcons, they are 11-3-1 as road dogs since 2015 (that's a 79% winning mark). Take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* AFC South Game of the Month is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars welcome the Tennessee Titans to TIAA Bank Field for an AFC South showdown on Thursday night with the NFL Network carrying the game. It's hard to believe that it was only January of 2018 when the Jags led the Pats by 10 points with less than 10 minutes to go in the 4th quarter of the AFC championship game. We all know the Pats scored a pair of TDs in that 4th quarter to win 24-20 and in effect, the Jags have imploded since. Jacksonville did open the 2018 season 3-1 (including a home rout of the Pats) but the Jags would lose 10 of their final 10 games to end the season at 5-11. QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door" and the Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract. He was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons. They shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1 but missed a great opportunity to open 2-0 by losing 19-17 at home to the Colts when their offense generated only 242 yards. Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RB Derrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. Tennessee's pass D ranks second in the NFL (182.5 YPG) and the team's 16.0 PPG allowed ranks 6th. Minshew and the struggling Jacksonville offense will have its work cut out. Mariota has passed for a modest 402 yards but he has four TDPs and zero INTs in 52 attempts (112.8 QB rating). Rookie WR Brown is averaging 20.8 YPC on his six catches plus now-healthy TE Walker has nine catches and two TDs. RB Henry has 165 yards (4.9 YPC) and two TDs. The Titans have won each of the last four meetings with the Jags, holding them to just 10.3 PPG. With a visit to Atlanta coming up in Week 4, the Titans NEED this one. Expect them to get it. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-19-19 | Houston +5 v. Tulane | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -107 | 54 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* American Conference Crusher is on Houston at 8:00 ET. The Houston Cougars and Tulane Green Wave meet Thursday in an American Athletic Conference game at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans. Houston has opened 1-2, losing at No. 4 Oklahoma on Sep 1 and at NRG Stadium last Friday to No. 20 Washington St. In between, the Cougars won 37-17 at home against Prairie View A&M. Thursday's game will be the FOURTH different stadium the team has played in over its first four games. Tulane is playing at home for the THIRD time in four weeks, opening with a 42-14 home win over FIU, losing at No. 10 Auburn 24-6 and then crushing Missouri St 58-6 at home last Saturday. Houston's pass D was overwhelmed by Oklahoma's Hurts and Washington St's Gordon but Tulane QB Justin McMillan is completing a modest 55.2% for 424 yards (2 TDs / 2 INTs), while adding 154 yards rushing (3 TDs). FYI...Hurts and Gordon have completed almost 80% of their passes (21-2 TD-to-INT ratio) with Hurts rushing for 373 yards (9.8 YPC / 4 TDs). Houston QB King is not off to a great start but remember, he passed for 2,982 yards in 2018 (36-6 ratio) and added 674 yards rushing with 14 TDs. He's had a least one TD pass and one rush TD in each game this season, tying Tem Tebow's NCAA record of 14 straight games with at least one TD pass and one rush TD. Let me note that Houston is 23-10 SU in AAC games since 2015, while Tulane has gone 10-22 in league games over the exact same time span.Houston has 'hung around' against two ranked teams, plus was plagued with costly penalties and noticeably wore down due to lack of depth in its 31-24 loss to Washington State last Friday. However, while getting better, Tulane is still a middle-of-pack AAC team. Meanwhile, Houston is a HIGHLY-PROFITABLE 13-1-1 ATS as an underdog since 2015. That's a 93% winning situation. Take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-19-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -103 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on the Chi Cubs at 7:15 ET. The St Louis Cardinals came out of the All Star break at just 44-44 but won 12 of 15 to open the second half. The team then hit a 2-8 skid but has since gone 27-12 and with 10 games left in the regular season, own a THREE-game lead over the Brewers and Cubs in the NL Central. Chicago opened its final homestand of the season (10 games) last Friday but after FOUR straight wins, have lost back-to-back games to the Reds and the Cubs are now 'fighting for their lives' with the Brewers for that final NL wild card spot plus would need to outplay the Cards by THREE games with just 10 to go, to catch St Louis atop the division (tall order). However, the Cubs do control their own destiny this weekend, as the Cards visit Wrigley for four games. Taking the mound in tonight's series opener will be Jack Flaherty (10-8, 3.05 ERA) and Kyle Hendricks (11-9, 3.26).Flaherty lost 5-2 to the Milwaukee Brewers last Saturday, when he struck 10 and gave up three runs and five hits over six innings. This marks Flaherty's 31st start and he's 6-3 with a 1.07 ERA over his last 13 starts (going back to July 7) with opponents are hitting just .152 against him during that stretch. However, the Cards are a more modest 8-5 in that stretch plus St Louis checks in only 15-15 in all of his 2019 starts (minus-$670 at $100/game!). Hendricks can 'feel Flaherty's pain' as he's pitched MUCH better than his 11-9 won-loss record or 15-13 (-$237) moneyline mark. Going back to July 2, Hendricks has allowed two ERs or less in 12 of his last 14 starts. He's allowed just one ER in FIVE of his last six starts. What's more,he is 3-0 with an 0.39 ERA vs St Louis in 2019, allowing just one ER in 23 innings! The Cards are a sub-.500 team on the road (36-38), while the Cubs, despite back-to-back losses to the Reds the last two nights, are 51-26 at Wrigley, outscoring opponents 5.29-to-3.86 RPG. The clincher? The Cubs are 6-0 at Wrigley vs the Cards in 2019, outscoring them 40-16! Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-19-19 | Phillies v. Braves -152 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 4 m | Show | |
My 7* Daytime Dominator is on the Atl Braves at 12:10 ET. The 93-60 Braves have all but locked up the NL East (current nine-game lead over the Nats gives them a "magic number" of ONE!) but they are FIVE games back of the Dodgers for the NL's best overall record with just NINE games left to the regular season. Atlanta is 60-31 since June 7 but after 5-4 and 4-1 losses the last two nights to the Phillies, the Braves enter Thursday's "getaway day game" looking to avoid being swept for the first time since late July. Philadelphia won for the third time in five contests, despite finishing with four hits and committing three errors. As I've often noted recently, Philadelphia has basically been 'stuck in neutral' since the All Star break, going 31-29.Philly is lucky to still be this close as heading into Thursday, the 78-72 Phils are in a virtual tie with the 79-73 Mets, THREE games back of the Brewers and Cubs for the NL's second wild card spot. Thursday's pitching matchup features Aaron Nola (12-5, 3.62 ERA) and Mike Soroka (12-4, 2.57 ERA). In one sense, Nola has provided the stability Philadelphia’s rotation has lacked for much of the season, as he is tied for first in the NL in starts (32), third in in innings pitched (191.2) and sixth in strikeouts (216). However, here's another take. Nola was Philly's Opening Day starter, coming off a 17-6 (2.37 ERA) season in which the Phils went 22-11 in his starts, giving him MLB's 12th-best moneyline mark of +$983. He enters this contest 12-5 in 32 starts on the season but note that Philly is a modest 18-14 in his starts, leaving him 'under water' in the moneyline standings (-$261). Nola takes the mound this afternoon winless (0-2 / team is 0-5 ) with a 4.15 ERA over his last five starts. Soroka allowed five HRs in just 11 innings in two starts to open September but rebounded last Friday at Washington, allowing one hit with three walks and four strikeouts in six shutout innings of a 5-0 win over Scherzer.. The 22-year-old continues building a case for Rookie of the Year honors, ranking second in the NL in ERA, tied for fifth in WAR for pitchers (5.7) and eighth in WHIP (1.09). It has to be noted that Soroka has been better on the road in 2019 (1.35 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 15 road outings), compared to a 4.18 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 12 home starts. However, I'm "all over" Atlanta and Soroka in this one. Atlanta has not been swept in a series since falling in a two-game set to Kansas City back on July 23-24 but now enters this contest having dropped three games in a row for the first time since July 16-18. Expect Soroka (18-9 in team starts) to 'stop the bleeding,' as the Phillies wild card hopes take a HUGE 'hit.' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-18-19 | Reds v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Rout is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. The Chicago Cubs won 8-2 over the Reds on Monday but got shut down by Sonny Gray last night (6.2 IP / 4 hits / 2 runs), as the Red beat them 4-2. Chicago had its five-game winning streak snapped and coupled with Milwaukee's win over the Padres, find themselves tied with the Brewers for the final NL wild-card spot. Both teams are 1 1/2 games back of Washington (current No. 1 wild card team) and TWO back of first-place St Louis in the NL Central. Cincinnati caps its nine-game road trip tonight, looking to go 5-4. However, the 71-81 Reds were officially eliminated from playoff contention with Monday's 8-2 loss to the Cubs and another defeat would assure the club of its SIXTH consecutive losing season. Tonight's pitching matchup features Tyler Mahle (2-11, 5.11 ERA) and Jon Lester (13-10, 4.59 ERA). Mahle is hoping to solidify a spot in the 2020 starting rotation. He was placed on the injured list in mid-July with a 2-10 (4.93 ERA) record, as the Reds went 4-15 in his first 19 starts of the season (minus-$1,038 against the moneyline). He's 0-1 with a 6.43 ERA in three starts since returning from Triple-A Louisville (team is 1-2) but while he allowed four runs and eight hits (two HRs) in just 3.1 innings at Seattle last Thursday, the Reds would win that game, 11-5. Why is that significant? It marked the FIRST time the Reds have won one of Mahle's road starts in 2019. He's 0-8 with a 5.45 road ERA in 13 starts (team is 1-12). Lester has not had a disappointing season for Chicago in 2019 and earned one of the wilder victories in his career last Friday. He allowed four first-inning runs to the Pittsburgh Pirates but watched his teammates rally for five runs in the bottom half, of the inning. He left after five innings, having allowed 11 hits and seven runs (four earned) but with a 17-7 lead! Lester has had a rough go in 2019 but things have worked out well for the Cubs in his Wrigley starts The Cubs can't afford to let tonight's game slip away, facing Mahle, who has seen the Reds lose 12 of his 13 road starts. For all of Lester's woes in 2019, the Cubs are 11-4 in his 15 home starts and just ONE of those 11 team wins at home have come by one run. In the other 10, the average margin of victory has been 5.3 RPG. Lay the 1 1/2 runs! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-18-19 | Phillies v. Braves -138 | 4-1 | Loss | -138 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the Atl Braves at 7:20 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies used two infield singles and two HRs to produce a five-run 4th inning, then made it stand up for a 5-4 win last night in Atlanta. The 93-59 Braves have all but locked up the NL East (current nine-game lead over the Nats) but the loss drops them FIVE games back of the Dodgers for the NL's best overall record (Atlanta's chances of catching LA are fading quickly). As for the 77-72 Phillies, they are in a virtual tie with the 78-73 Mets, FOUR games back of the second wild card spot (Brewers and Cubs are both 82-69). The fact is, Philly is lucky to still be this close, as last night's win was just their THIRD in their last seven games. Philadelphia has basically been 'stuck in neutral' since the All Star break, going 30-29. Zach Eflin (8-12, 4.20 ERA) and Julio Teheran (10-9, 3.50 ERA) take the mound tonight for the middle contest of this three-game series. Eflin was banished to the bullpen after losing four successive starts in July, while posting a 12.64 ERA. However, he got another shot at the rotation with Jake Arrieta undergoing season-ending elbow surgery. Eflin didn't like being demoted to the bullpen but he took responsibility. "It's ultimately not my decision," Eflin said. "If I don't like it, I should pitch better. I hadn't been really doing my job. Going to the bullpen is another opportunity for me. It's a challenge. I'm a fan of challenges." Eflin allowed just one run in 5.2 innings over four relief appearances and in five starts since returning to the rotation, has posted a 2.84 ERA. Teheran had one of his few subpar outings this season last Thursday against the Phillies, surrendering five ERs on five hits (including three HRs) of a 9-5 loss. The 28-year-old had allowed just three ERs over 25 innings of his previous four starts, giving him a 1.08 ERA. Looking back further, Teheran's outing at Philly last Thursday was just the 4th time in his last 24 starts (going back to May 5) in which he had allowed five runs or more. In that 24-start span, he's posted a 2.94 ERA with a .215 BAA (Braves have gone 16-8 in those outings). I sure expect a bounce-back effort by Teheran and as for Eflin, let me add that in TWO of his five recent starts, he hasn't completed four innings. Want more? In three starts against the Braves this season, Eflin is 0-3 with an 11.57 ERA, allowing 20 runs (12 earned) while lasting only 9.1 innings. His longest outing against the Braves in those three starts is 3.2 innings! Atlanta wins "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-17-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals -107 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the StL Cardinals at 7:45 ET. The Washington Nationals' lackluster September play has left the team little margin for error in its quest for a wild card spot, as the 2019 season now has less than two weeks left. Washington opened its three-game series in St Louis against the Cards last night with a 4-2 loss. Anthony Rendon hit his 34th HR but Washington was limited to four singles otherwise. Washington came to St Louis having lost THREE of four in Atlanta, won TWO of three in Minnesota and lost TWO of three at home to the Braves, in the team's previous three series. The Nats' lead over the Chicago Cubs for the first wild card was reduced to one-half game with the loss plus the Brewers lurk just ONE game back of the Cubs. St Louis got its six-game homestand off on the wrong foot by dropping TWO of three to Milwaukee over the weekend but last night's win allowed the Cards to maintain a two-game lead over the Cubs in the NL Central (Milwaukee is three back). Patrick Corbin (12-7, 3.20 ERA) and Miles Mikolas (9-13, 4.28 ERA) will square off in tonight's second contest of the series. Corbin won double digits in victories three times with Arizona (2013, '17 & '18) and is two wins shy in 2019 of his single-season career high of 14 (2013 & 2017).Corbin logged his NL-best 22nd quality start in Thursday's 12-6 win at Minnesota, allowing three ERs on nine hits over six innings. However, a closer look at Corbin's season reveals that he's been significantly worse on the road than at home in 2019. He owns a 2.00 ERA, 0.93 ERA and .193 BAA in 14 home starts (Nats are 11-3), while pitching to a 4.45 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and .256 BAA in 16 road starts (team is 7-9). Mikolas was an All-Star selection last season for the Cards, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA (Cards were 24-8 in his 32 starts, giving him an outstanding plus-$1,418 moneyline mark). However, the Cards are just 16-14 in his 2019 starts (minus-$175). Then again, Mikolas' woes have come away from Busch Stadium. The second-year pitcher owns an 'ugly' 6.80 ERA in 16 road starts (as well as a poor 1.40 WHIP and .298 BAA) but in 14 home starts, his ERA is 2.91, his WHIP is 1.01 and opponents are batting a more modest .241 against him. Corbin's road numbers up against Mikolas' home numbers make for a strong edge to the Cards and St Louis is 30-11 at home against the Nationals since Busch Stadium III opened in 2006. More notably, St Louis is 19-6 its last 25 at home. Cards win and with the Cubs and Brewers both playing at home vs losing teams (Reds and Padres, respectively), the Nats will really start to 'sweat.' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-16-19 | Reds v. Cubs -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 111 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Rout is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. The Chicago Cubs welcomed the Pirates to Wrigley Field over the weekend and were able to sweep the three-game series. Meanwhile, the Cards hosted the Brewers for a three-games series. St Louis won Friday's game 10-0 but Milwaukee was able to win Saturday and Sunday. When "all the dust had settled," St Louis sat atop the NL Central, two games up on the Cubs, with the Brewers sitting one game behind Chicago.The Cubs continue their final homstand of the season this week, as they welcome the Reds to Wrigley for a three-game series, before the Cards come in for a four-game series to end the week. Chicago will spend MLB's final week of the regular season with three games in Pittsburgh, followed by three games in St Louis. The Reds cap a nine-game road trip with this series in Chicago, having gone 3-3 so far. Cincy is just 70-89 in 2019 (30-45 on the road) and the Reds' only role these last two weeks is that of a "spoiler." Taking the mound tonight will be Kevin Gausman (3-8, 5.83 ERA) and Cole Hamels (7-7, 3.89 ERA). Sonny Gray was scheduled to start for the Reds but they will instead give Gausman his first start for Cincinnati since being claimed off waivers from Atlanta. Gausman began the 2018 season with Baltimore and was 5-8 with a 4.43 ERA in 21 starts. However, the Orioles were an awful 6-15 in those starts, giving him a minus-$967 moneyline mark. Atlanta made a deal for Gausman at the trade deadline and it worked out well, as Gausman went 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 10 starts (Braves were 7-3). However, Gausman flopped pitching for an excellent Atlanta team in 2019, going 3-7 with a 6.19 ERA (Atlanta "saved him" by going 8-8 in his 16 starts). The Braves eventually gave up on him and Cincy claimed him off waivers. Gausman has made 11 relief appearances for the Reds while posting a 4.02 ERA in 15.2 innings but he does own a 22-3 KW ratio. As for Hamels, he makes his 26th start of the season. He has a 7.58 ERA in his last seven outings, which is quite a drop-off from him posting a 2.84 ERA in his first 18 starts. The 35-year-old has completed as much as six innings in just TWO of his last nine starts, while earning a victory just ONCE in his last 11 outings. Taking that all in, I will still back Hamels and the Cubs here, even laying 1 1/2 runs. Yes, the Cubs are a poor road team (31-44) but only MLB's three-best teams (Astros, Dodgers and Yankees) own a better home mark than Chicago's 50-24 mark at Wrigley Field (outscoring opponents on average, 5.34-to-3.89 RPG). Chicago has dominated right-handers at home this season (41-17), including 20-5 in night games. Getting back to Hamels, he checks in 12-2 with a 2.02 ERA in 20 career starts vs Cincy, with his teams going 18-2. BTW...In two career starts vs the Cubs, Gausman owns a 12.38 ERA. Cubs win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Eagles v. Falcons +2 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* SNF Magic Play is on the Atl Falcons at 8:20 ET. The Philadelphia Eagles fell behind the Redskins 17-0 in Week 1 at home in the early 2nd quarter and trailed 20-7 at the half. However, Philly scored the game's next 25 points, before Washington was able to add a "concession TD" with six seconds left for the 'cover!' Philly visits Atlanta for Week 2's Sunday Night Football contest, as the Falcons look to avert an 0-2 start for the first time since 2007. Atlanta was steamrolled at Minnesota last Sunday, falling behind 28-0. Matt Ryan was intercepted twice and sacked four times to put the Falcons in a sizable hole. He did throw two, 4th-quarter TD passes in the 28-12 loss. Philly QB Carson Wentz looked to be in mid-season form, throwing for 313 yards and three TDs. DeSean Jackson caught two of those TDs, among his eight catches for 154 yards. Philly may have the deepest set of RBs in the league, with off-season acquisition Jordan Howard (over 3,300 rushing yards the L3 years with the Bears) joining veteran Darren Sproles and Penn St rookie Miles Sander. However, the Eagles finished 30th against the pass last season and showed no signs of improvement in Week 1, as Washington's Case Keenum threw for 380 yards against a suspect secondary that didn't get much help from the pass rush. Atlanta had problems with both its offensive and defensive lines at Minnesota. The Falcons OL allowed 42 sacks and 108 QB hits in 2018 (gave up four sacks vs Minnesota) plus the DL gave up 172 rushing yards and three TDs vs the Vikes. Ryan has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 16 consecutive contests and with WRs Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley he has talented targets. Then there is TE Austin Hooper, who reeled in a team-leading nine catches in Week 1. The Falcons have lost to the Eagles each of the last three seasons, averaging just 12.3 points in those games. However, all three of the games were in Philadelphia and the last two times the Falcons were near the goal line with multiple chances to win. The Eagles have given up an average of eight more points and 66 more yards per game on the road that at home during the past three years, while Matt Ryan had an 118.0 QB rating at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, compared to 99.7 on the road last season. Dan Quinn has brushed off any suggestion that he's starting to feel some heat but he has now lost 11 of his last 18 games going back to the playoffs at the end of the 2017 season. I doubt Quinn and Atlanta will ever 'live down' squandering a 28-3 lead to New England in the Super Bowl but Atlanta NEEDS this one and it's only a Week 2 game. I'm taking the home team. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Dodgers v. Mets OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on LAD/NYM Over at 7:05 ET. The New York Mets are fighting to stay in the National League wild card race and welcomed the NL's best team to Citi Field this weekend for a three-game series. The Mets lost Friday's opener 9-2 to Clayton Kershaw and then couldn't figure out Ryu through seven innings on Saturday (tied at 0-0). However, a three-run, pinch-hit double in the eighth off LA's bullpen gave New York a 3-0 victory. The win was the FIFTH in six games for the Mets and kept them three games behind the Chicago Cubs in the race for the second NL wild spot (the Mets also trail Milwaukee by two games). The loss dropped LA to 96-54, two games back of the NY Yankees for MLB's best record plus it also allowed the Braves to creep within three games of the Dodgers for the NL's best record. The rubber match of this series takes place tonight on ESPN and it HAS significance. Taking the mound will be Walker Buehler (13-3, 3.14 ERA) and Zack Wheeler (11-7, 4.21 ERA). Buehler dominated at Baltimore on Tuesday, scattering four hits over seven scoreless innings and struck out 11 in a 7-3 win. The 25-year-old has not allowed a run in FOUR of his last six starts but in the other two, against also-rans Colorado and Miami, he allowed 11 ERs in just nine innings!Buehler has faced the Mets just once in his career, allowing five ERs in five innings back on May 29, getting a no-decision in a 9-8 LA win. Many expected Wheeler to be moved at the trade deadline but that didn't happen. He responded by delivering 15 consecutive scoreless innings in back-to-back 4-0 and 5-0 wins to open August. Wheeler enters this contest having gone 5-1 in nine starts since coming off the injured list in late July. The Mets are 7-2 in those nine starts, with both losses came against the Braves .Think LA has anything in common with Atlanta? So let's break it down. Over Wheeler's last nine starts since coming off the DL, the Mets have won SEVEN times, with him allowing just nine ERs over 43 innings (1.88 ERA). However, in two meetings with the division-leading Braves, he's allowed 10 ERs while lasting just 11 innings (8.18 ERA). The Dodgers are the NL's best team and in three career starts against the them, Wheeler owns a 7.88 ERA. LA ranks fifth in scoring (5.43 RPG) and OPS (.810), as well as ranking third in HRs with 260. I expect them to 'rough up' Wheeler. As for Buehler, he can be unhittable at times but as I noted earlier (see above for a reminder), he's capable of a "bad day." He had one of those bad days in his lone career start against Mets (again, see above). I say go O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Saints v. Rams | Top | 9-27 | Win | 100 | 28 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET. It may be nearly nine months ago since the Saints were done in by one of the more controversial no-calls in NFL playoff history but it seems like "just yesterday" to New Orleans and its fans. The blatant pass interference on CB Nickell Robey-Coleman late in regulation was missed by referees and it is still being discussed. The non-call forced New Orleans to settle for a field goal and eventually, the Rams beat the Saints 26-23 in overtime in last year's NFC Championship Game. It sent the Rams, not the Saints, to the Super Bowl. The non-call also prompted the NFL to change its replay review rules in the off-season, although many Saints fans still haven't stopped complaining about it. The two teams square off in Week 2, with both coming off close Week 1 wins. Drew Brees passed for 370 yards and two TDs but needed to lead a last-gasp drive that led to the Saints' game-winning, 58-yard FG with 0:00 time left (30-28). The Rams jumped out to a 13-0 lead at Carolina last Sunday but needed to hang on for a 30-27 victory. RB Alvin Kamara will be the Saints featured back in 2019 (with Ingram gone) and he ran for 97 yards and had 72 receiving yards in Week 1, giving every indication he's up to the task. Meanwhile, Michael Thomas was Brees' top target with 10 catches for 123 yards. Jared Goff wasn’t all that sharp in LA's 30-27 win at Carolina (23-39 186 yards with one TD and one iNT), after just signing a huge contract. However, some good news was Woods hauling in eight passes and Kupp catching seven balls. As for RB Todd Gurley, concerns about his apparently balky knee looked fairly unfounded in the Rams' opener, as he rushed for 97 yards (6.9 YPC) and looked dangerous. Teammate Brooks ran for 53 yards and scored two TDs. I get the feeling "most" will be on the Saints in this one and the week-long line move seems to bear that out. However, the Rams averaged 37.3 PPG at home last season and one should NOT ignore the Saints' "close call" in Week 1, as it has become a pattern. Going back to the start of the 2014 season, the Saints enter this contest 2-9 SU and 1-10 ATS (that's 91% "go-against") in the first two games of the season these past five-plus years. Bet on it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals -129 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -129 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the StL Cards at 2:15 ET. The St Louis Cardinals returned from the All Star break just 44-44 but except for a five-game West Coast swing in which the team went 0-5 vs the A's and Dodgers from Aug 3-7, they have been the NL Central's best team. St Louis welcomed Milwaukee to town on Friday night for an important three-game series. The Cards were 38-20 since the break, including 24-9 since that five-game skid. The Brewers came to St Louis tied with Chicago in the NL Central, four games back of the Cards. Milwaukee posted a 19-7 record last September to erase a five-game deficit before it won the division in Game 163 and the Brewers had opened this September 9-2 and on a SEVEN-game winning streak. St Louis snapped Milwaukee's seven-game run with a 10-0 victory on Friday but Mike Moustakas and Yasmani Grandal each hit two-run HRs on Saturday, as the Brewers' 5-2 win allowed them to climb back within four games of the division-leading Cardinals, although they remain one behind the Cubs, who won Friday and Saturday, It's the rubber match of this three-game series on Sunday, as Chase Anderson (6-4, 4.57 ERA) takes the mound against Michael Wacha (6-7, 4.97 ERA). Anderson has been consistent this season for Milwaukee but NOT in a good way. He has completed six innings only TWICE in 24 starts this season, working exactly four innings in each of his last THREE outings. A closer look reveals that while he's been solid at Miller Park (3.68 ERA / 1.08 WHIP / .212 BAA), he's had all sorts of troubles away from home. In 13 road appearances (11 starts), his ERA balloons to 5.72, his WHIP to 1.60 and his BAA to .293.. Moving over to Wacha, he is NOT the pitcher who made such a big 'spalsh' in the 2013 postseason (Cards made it to the World Series where they lost 4-2 to the Red Sox), or the one who went 17-7 (3.38 ERA) in 2015. His last win came back on July 19 (in relief), with his last win as a starter coming all the way back on June 21. However, let me note that after returning to the rotation full time on Aug 5, Wacha has pitched well except for that Aug 5 start in LA vs the Dodgers (six ERs allowed in just 3.2 innings). He enters this contest with a 3.04 ERA over his last six starts. I see little reason NOT to think that the StL bats will continue Anderson's road woes and will add that Wacha is 1-0 with a 1.67 ERA in three starts against the Brewers this season (Cards are 2-1) and is 6-0 with a 3.62 ERA in 14 career appearances against them. Cards win this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Red Sox v. Phillies +100 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Phi Phillies at 1:05 ET. I played Bos over Philly on Saturday and noted the following in my analysis. "Scoreboard watching has become a second job for the Philadelphia Phillies but as for the Boston Red Sox, "not so much!" The defending champs come to Philly for a two-game IL series with a 77-70 record, leaving them 10 games out the the AL's second wild card spot with only 15 games left to play. Can you say 'dead in the water?' As for the Phillies, despite being 'caught in neutral' since the All Star break (Phils are just 29-27), Philadelphia remains 'alive' in the NL wild card race at 76-70. The Nats own the No. 1 spot, 3 1/2 games ahead of the Cubs (No. 2). Milwaukee is one game back of Chicago, Philly 2 1/2 games back, the Mets three games back and we'll still list the D'backs at 4 1/2 back, but NOT for much longer (Arizona has dropped SIX straight games)." I backed the Red Sox because of Eduardo Rodriguez and he delivered 6.2 solid innings, allowing one run. Boston won it 2-1 on a sac fly in the 9th. 76-71 Philadelphia, hoping to reach the postseason for the first time since 2011, now sits 3 1/2 games behind the Chicago Cubs for the second NL wild-card spot plus also finds themselves 'looking up' on Milwaukee (down 2 1/2 to the Brewers) and the New York Mets (just a half-game back of the Mets). Boston's win gives them a 78-70 record but leaves the Red Sox 10 games out the the AL's second wild card spot with only 14 games left to play. Boston's only role the rest of the way will be as a "spoiler." Taking the mound for the final contest of this two-game series will be Rick Porcello (12-12, 5.83 ERA) and Jason Vargas (6-7, 4.31 ERA). Porcello has allowed six runs and two HRs over four innings in EACH of his last two starts (13.50 ERA). He is nearing the end of a nightmare campaign in which he currently has the highest ERA in the league among qualified starters. Philly hands the ball to Vargas, who was a trade-deadline acquisition from the Mets. The problem is, he is still seeking his first win since joining the Phillies, having gone 0-2 with a 5.01 ERA in eight starts (team is 3-5), giving up at least four runs in half those outings. Yes, Philadelpha is just 4-6 in its last 10 games (29-28 since the break). After Sunday, the Phils will take to the road for a pivotal 11-game stretch, including five against the wild-card-leading Washington Nationals. However, the Phillies will NOT have to face Rodriguez today but instead draw Porcello, who has served up 30 HRs this season, the second-highest total of his career (see above for more of Porcello's 2019 woes). Vargas is in the final guaranteed season of his contract and really NEEDS to start getting in the win column. Facing a weak pitching opponent like Porcello is a plus (note: Philly is 13-7 in home days games vs righties in 2019), as is Boston's poor 20-27 (-$1,830) record against lefty starters in 2019. GREAT price here on Philly and Vargas. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Seahawks v. Steelers -4 | Top | 28-26 | Loss | -107 | 102 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. Both the Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers did not play well in Week 1 but at the least the Seahawks picked up a win.Seattle escaped with a 21-20 home win over teh Bengals, despite getting nearly doubled up in yardage (429-233) and allowing the Bengals to control the ball for nearly 36 minutes. Russell Wilson was 14-of-20 for 196 yards and two scores in the opener (no INTs) but Seattle was able to run for just 72 yards (2.9 YPG), after leading the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 160.0 YPG. The offense gained only 232 yards with 12 FDs. Seattle's defense allowed 429 yards (22 FDs), as Andy Dalton completed 68.7 percent for 418 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Seattle's "rough outing" was a 'walk in the park' compared to what Pittsburgh experienced last Sunday night in Foxborough. The Pats opened a 20-0 halftime lead and cruised to a 33-3 win. New England outgained Pittsburgh 465-308, as Brady passed for 341 yards and three TDs. Big Ben threw 47 times, completing 27 for 276 yards and never got the Steelers into the end zone. The Pittsburgh running game gained just 32 yards on 2.5 YPG. Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger engaged in a high-octane shootout the last time they shared the field, with Wilson passing for 345 yards and five TDs in a 39-30 home win. Roethlisberger passed for 456 yards but just one score. However, that was back in 2015. Here's what matters in this Week 2 meeting in 2019. The Steelers are 8-1 SU after losses by at least 20 points during Roethlisberger's 15-plus years in the league, while the Seahawks have made a habit of starting slow the last four-plus seasons. Seattle is now 3-6 SU the first two weeks of the season since the start of 2015, while going 0-8-1 ATS. That's a 100% "go-against!" Pittsburgh puts last Sunday night's debacle behind it with a CONVINCING win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Bills v. Giants +2.5 | 28-14 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 2 Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET. Sean McDermott got the Buffalo head coaching job in 2017 and ended a 17-year postseason drought for the franchise by going 10-6 in his first season to earn a wild card berth. However, the Bills regressed in 2018, going 6-10. Buffalo surprised most by going 4-0 in the 2019 preseason and then the Bills beat the Jets 17-16 at MetLife Stadium in Week 1. Buffalo allowed the first 16 points in its season opener before rallying in the second half to earn the one-point victory.Josh Allen orchestrated a pair of TD drives in the fourth quarter, scoring on a 3-yard scramble to get the Bills within 16-10, before connecting with John Brown for a 38-yard TD with three minutes remaining. Allen's late heroics helped atone for his earlier play, as he became the first NFL quarterback to commit four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles) in a victory since 2013. The Bills return to MetLife Stadium looking for their first 2-0 start since 2014 to take on the Giants, who are trying to avoid a sixth 0-2 start since 2013. The Giants, like the Bills, delivered a 4-0 preseason. However, they were not up to the challenge of slowing down Dallas QB Dak Prescott in Week 1, as he threw for 405 yards and four TDs (zero INTs). Dallas jumped out early against the Giants and led 35-10 into the fourth quarter, with the Giants scoring with just over two minutes left in the game for the 35-17 final. Which Josh Allen will we see on Sunday? The one who played so poorly for most of the game, or that one which led the 4th-quarter comeback. As for the Giants, Eli threw for 306 yards (1 TD / 0 INTS) plus Barkley added 120 yards rushing (10.9 YPC), but the Giants trailed by 25 points as the 2-minute warning approached. Buffalo as a road favorite? The Bills have been favored on the road just EIGHT times over their last 50 games, going 2-6 ATS in those rare occurrences .Daniel Jones is 'looking over Eli's shoulder' (and the fans are likely behind tat move) but I'm betting the vet can earn a win here against an improving but "not there just yet" Buffalo team. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-15-19 | Jaguars v. Texans OVER 42.5 | Top | 12-13 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Jax/Hou Over at 1:00 ET. The Houston Texans led the Saints 14-3 at the half on Monday night but found themselves down 27-21 with 50 seconds left in the game, after a New Orleans FG. However, they then went 75 yards in two plays to take the lead with 37 seconds left, only to lose on a 58-yard FG with 0:00 remaining on the clock. Houston doesn't want to hear anything about "moral" victories. The Jags opened their 2019 season, after an 0-4 preseason, at home against the high-powered KC Chiefs and their dynamic QB, Pat Mahomes. The Jacksonville D never came close to containing KC, as the Chiefs scored 40 points on 491 yards in the 14-point win. Mahomes passed for 378 yards with three TDs, all to WR Sammy Watkins (9 for 198). Nick Foles, who signed a four-year, $88 million contract in March, broke his left clavicle in the first quarter and had surgery Monday (he is out until at least Week 11).However, rookie QB Gardner Minshew replaced Foles and impressed in his NFL debut. The Jags visit their AFC rivals Sunday in Houston and in speaking about Minshew, head coach Doug Marrone told reporters, “He’s one of the few guys I’ve been around who can go from the classroom and really take it right onto the field. The other day was an unbelievable indication of that. I don’t know how many people – especially rookies – can go out not having done anything during the week and play like that.” Minshew completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs (both in the 4th quarter) and an interception in the 40-26 loss. The Watson (268 yards and three TDs) to Watkins connection was in mid-season form plus with Lamar Smith out for the season, the newly constructed backfield tandem also got the job done last week. Carlos Hyde rushed for 83 yards just nine days after being acquired from Kansas City and Duke Johnson recorded 90 yards from scrimmage in his debut for the Texans. However, the defense surrendered 510 total yards to the Saints and had a hard time getting pressure in the backfield, recording just one sack and no tackles for loss. Both defense got 'lit up' last week and what changes, here? The Texans won the AFC South last season at 11-5 and with Luck retired, are favored to win it again in 2019. An 0-2 start would be a 'killer.' That said, Houston's defense is a real question mark. Minshew is bouyed by a now-healthy Leonard Fournette ( but YPC) and the receiving corps showed off its newfound depth against the Chiefs. SIX players caught four or more passes for the Jags last Sunday, with Conley catching six (97 yards and one TD) and Chalk (four catches for 146 yards, that 36.5 per and a score). This one should be 'OVER' by the time the game reaches the fourth quarter! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-14-19 | A's -110 v. Rangers | Top | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (AL West) is on the Oak A's at 8:05 ET. It's been the "Year of the Home Run" in MLB 2019 and the Oakland Athletics are "doing their part."The A's opened their three-game series at Texas against the Rangers last night with a 14-9 win while hitting five HRs. It was Oakland's fourth straight win, a stretch in which the A's have hit 14 HRs. More importantly, the victory kept them atop the race for the first wild card in the American League (A's are 88-60, the Rays 88-61 and the Twins 86-61). The Rangers were 50-42 back on July 12th (and right in the wild card chase) but Texas has steadily faded since that time and now sits 74-75, coming into tonight's game on a 24-33 stretch. Saturday's contest is a 'battle of team aces,' as Mike Fiers (14-4, 3.97 ERA) matches up against Mike Minor (13-8, 3.08 ERA).Fiers suffered his first loss since May 1 when he gave up NINE runs and nine hits (including five HRs) in one inning of work at Houston just this past Monday. "I felt great, there's no excuse," Fiers told reporters before later wondering if he was tipping his pitches. "I just have to laugh about it. It's one of those games where you feel like they're on everything you threw." It was a truly an 'ugly' performance but doesn't Fiers deserve a 'mulligan?' Fiers notably threw a no-hitter back on May 7, beating the Reds 2-0. When he took the mound this past Monday at Houston, he had allowed three ERs or less in 21 of his 23 previous starts (streak began two starts before his no-hitter). Starting with his no-hitter, he had gone 12-0 over his previous 21 starts, with the A's going 16-4 with a suspended game (A's would win the resumption of that game). Minor has pitched well for the so-so Rangers. He ended August by allowing 13 ERs in his final three starts (0-2 / team was 1-2), covering 19.1 innings (6.05 ERA) but he has turned things around this month by going 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA in two outings. There's catch, though. Both of those wins came on the road and Minor will take the mound tonight in Arlington, having posted a 7.00 ERA over his last five home starts. Oakland is fighting for a playoff spot and has won 18 of its last 24 meetings with Texas. What's more, the left-handed Minor (the one with a 7.00 home ERA his last five starts) will face an Oakland lineup which is 29-12 vs lefties in 2019, including 17-8 on the road while averaging 6.67 RPG This game is a pick'em? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-14-19 | Texas v. Rice OVER 55.5 | Top | 48-13 | Win | 100 | 52 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Sep Total of the Month is on Texas/Rice Over at 8:00 ET. The marquee game last weekend was No. 6 LSU at No. 9 Texas. The Longhorns missed some scoring opportunities but was still in the game, trailing 37-31 with just under three minutes left in the game. However, LSU hit a 61-yard scoring pass AND converted a two-point conversion. A late Texas TD made the final 45-38.Junior quarterback Sam Ehlinger passed for a career-high 401 yards and threw four TDs vs LSU, after passing for 276 yards and four TDs in three quarters of a 45-14 win over La Tech on Aug 31. The now 12th-ranked Longhorns will play 0-2 Rice on Saturday at NRG Stadium (home of the NFL's Texans). Rice opened with a closer-than-expected 14-7 loss at Army and then allowed Wake Forest to run up 513 yards of total offense last week in a 41-21 loss at home. Had a couple more things broken Texas’ way in Week 2, they’d be 2-0 right now. All-in-all, the Longhorns put up a good effort against a tough LSU defense and if Wake could roll up 513 yards on Rice, expect Texas to do the same. Texas scored more than 40 points just three times in 2018, each time against an opponent which finished in the bottom half in the country in scoring defense. As we saw last week against a top-flight LSU defense, this year's Longhorns could very well average 40 PPG in 2019. Rice announced early in the week that freshman QB Wiley Green would not start vs the Longhorns after he suffered a hit to the head against Wake Forest that resulted in him leaving the field on a backboard and a trip to the hospital. Tom Stewart, a graduate transfer from Harvard had a 14-2 ratio last season, finished the game in place of Green and passed for 185 yards and a score. The Texas pass D was shredded by LSU's Joe Burrow, who torched the Longhorns for 471 yards and four TDs (forgivable) but how about La Tech's J'Mar Smith throwing for 331 yards and two TDs. Expect Texas to move at will against Rice but don't be surprised if Rice gets a few scores, as well. These former SWC rivals own a long history, with Texas leading 72-21-1. The Longhorns have won 41 of the last 42, including 13 straight. The schools last met in 2015, with Texas winning 42-28. I'll take that final here. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-14-19 | TCU v. Purdue +2.5 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -109 | 50 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on Purdue at 7:30 ET. Purdue led Nevada 24-7 at the half in Reno and extended its lead to 17 points again at 34-17, late in the third quarter. However, the Boilermakers never scored again and lost 34-31 (as 11-point road favorites), on a 56-yard FG as time expired by a walk-on freshman placekicker. The 'killer' was five turnovers and the Boilermakers knew they had to correct that right away. Purdue hosted Vanderbilt last Saturday and its lone turnover was an interception thrown by QB Elijah Sindelar. However, the junior could be forgiven, as he was named the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week after completing 34-of-52 passes for a career-high 509 yards and five touchdowns. Sindelar became the 18th player to surpass 3,000 passing yards at Purdue and although he suffered a concussion late in the fourth quarter, he practiced Wednesday and is expected to play. TCU opened its 2019 season with a 39-7 win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff on Aug 31 and then had last week off. Gary Patterson has had some career at TCU, taking over full-time in 2001 and going to 16 bowls the last 18 seasons. Eleven times his teams have won double digits in a single season, including the 2010 team going 13-0 after a Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin (TCU ended as the nation's 2nd-ranked team). The Horned Frogs did go 11-3 in 2017 but in 2016 went 6-7 after a bowl loss and in 2019 went 7-6, after a bowl win. The Horned Frogs played two QBs in their season-opening win and graduate transfer Alex Delton and freshman Max Duggan are expected to split snaps once again. The duo completed 26 of 45 for 284 yards (1 TD / 0 INTs) and the running game ran for 200 yards (5.6 YPC). However, the opponent WAS Arkansas-Pine Bluff. TCU averaged just 23.5 PPG, after a four-year run of averaging 33.6, 31.0, 42.1 and 46.5. The defense only returns five starters but Patterson rarely fields a poor defensive team. Still, Sindelar has thrown for 932 yards with nine TDs in his first two games and has one of the nation's best WRs in Rondale Moore, who caught 114 passes last season for 12 TDs. He already has 24 catches and two TDs after two games. Purdue has a HUGE edge at the QB position and with next week off (Big Ten play begins Sep 28), this is a "statement" game for Purdue's season. Take a note that in 2018, Purdue beat three ranked opponents at home ( #23 BC 30-13, 32 Ohio St 49-20 and #19 Iowa 38-360, for the first time since 1959. The small home dog 'barks' VERY 'loudly' in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-14-19 | Red Sox +110 v. Phillies | 2-1 | Win | 110 | 10 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:05 ET. Scoreboard watching has become a second job for the Philadelphia Phillies but as for the Boston Red Sox, "not so much!" The defending champs come to Philly for a two-game IL series with a 77-70 record, leaving them 10 games out the the AL's second wild card spot with only 15 games left to play. Can you say 'dead in the water?' As for the Phillies, despite being 'caught in neutral' since the All Star break (Phils are just 29-27), Philadelphia remains 'alive' in the NL wild card race at 76-70. The Nats own the No. 1 spot, 3 1/2 games ahead of the Cubs (No. 2). Milwaukee is one game back of Chicago, Philly 2 1/2 games back, the Mets three games back and we'll still list the D'backs at 4 1/2 back, but NOT for much longer (Arizona has dropped SIX straight games). Saturday's pitching matchup features Eduardo Rodriguez (17-6, 3.73 ERA) and Aaron Nola (12-5, 3.70 ERA).Rodriguez had his four-game winning streak, as well as his six-start unbeaten run end Monday vs the Yankees, despite allowing just one run and five hits with nine strikeouts in six innings (Yanks would win, 5-0). The 26-year-old has emerged as the staff ace this season and enters this contest having allowed just four ERs over his last five starts, a span of 32.1 innings (That's an ERA of 1.11). Nola was Philly's Opening Day starter, coming off a 17-6 (2.37 ERA) season in which the Phils went 22-11 in his starts, giving him MLB's 12th-best moneyline mark of +$983. He enters this contest 12-5 in 31 starts on the season but note that Philly is a modest 18-13 in his starts, leaving him 'under water' in the moneyline standings (-$143).Nola allowed four runs, six hits and four walks while striking out seven over six innings of a 7-2 loss to Atlanta on Monday and takes the mound tonight winless (0-2 / team is 0-4 ) with a 5.01 ERA over his last four starts. Nola has been an underachiever in 2019, while Rodriguez has been the team's biggest "money-maker" for the second straight season. He was 19-4 in team starts in 2018 (+$1,387) and here in 2019, his team record is 22-8 (+$1,328), which is the No. 2 mark among all MLB starter. Sure, the Phils have something to play for but you couldn't tell it by their 29-27 record since the break. Boston is the play. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-14-19 | Iowa -2 v. Iowa State | Top | 18-17 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 8 m | Show |
My 9* Cy-Hawk Rivalry is on Iowa at 4:00 ET. Iowa State struggled in its season opener at home against Northern Iowa on Aug 31, before winning 29-26 in triple-overtime. The Cyclones were off last weekend, getting an extra week to prepare for its biggest non-conference rival, Iowa.ISU was happy for the extra week off to make necessary adjustments after its lackluster debut. "It’s really good to have an opportunity to step back and say, Is what we’re doing the right thing? Where do we need to get better? What are the things that might help our offense or might help our defense?" offensive coordinator Tom Manning told the Ames Tribune. Iowa comes to Ames 2-0 and ranked 19th in the latest AP poll, after opening with home wins over Miami-Ohio (38-14) and Rutgers (30-0). The Hawkeyes have hardly been tested so far by Mia-O and Rutgers but it's good news that QB Nate Stanley, who came into the season with high expectations (52-16 TD-to-INT ratio the last two years), is living up to the hype with 488 passing yards, six TDs and no interceptions through the first two games. It's true that Iowa's first two opponents were hardly ranked opponents but Kirk Ferentz-coached teams always play excellent defense. Iowa has opened by allowing 185.0 YPG (4th), 113.5 passing YPG (8th), 71.5 rushing YPG (16th) and 7.0 PPG (8th). The Cyclones managed to survive Northern Iowa in Week 1 thanks in large part to the connection between QB Brock Purdy (30-41 for 278 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs) and wide receiver Deshaunte Jones, who finished with career highs of 14 catches for 126 yards. Purdy took over as ISU's starting QB on Oct 13 and led the Cyclones to a 7-1 finish, before losing 28-26 to Washington St in the Alamo Bowl. Having last weekend off is an advantage for ISU but Iowa's Kirk Ferentz has figured out this rivalry with FOUR straight wins. Iowa QB Stanley, a senior, is trying to go out 4-0 against the Cyclones, after coming in as a backup his freshman year (a 42-3 win) and starting this rivalry game the last two years in 13-3 and 44-41 wins. Iowa is off next weekend and then hosts Middle Tenn St on Sep 28. A win here and the Hawkeyes should be 4-0 when it begins Big Ten play at Michigan on Oct 5. Bet on it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-14-19 | East Carolina v. Navy -7 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 80 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Navy at 3:30 ET. | |||||||
09-13-19 | Washington State v. Houston +9.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 54 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Friday Night Lights Play is on Houston at 9:15 ET. Mike Leach career ended at Texas Tech after the 2009 season, amid lots of controversy. He resurfaced in Pullman with Wash St but saw his second season (6-7 after a bowl loss), sandwiched around a pair of 3-9 seasons in his first and third years. However, Wash St entered the 2019 season off FOUR straight bowl appearances, with his Cougars finishing 11-2 in 2018 and 10th in the AP's final poll. Washington State lost QB Greg Minshew (70.7%, 4,779 yard, 38-9 ratio) to the NFL but its offense is in mid-season form after just two games, as Anthony Gordon (five pass attempts in 2018) has completed 81.1% of his passes for 884 yards with nine TDs and just one INT. WSU has scored 117 points (58.5 PPG ranks 5th) on 606.0 YPG (7th), although the team is averaging only 112.0 YPG on the ground (110th). The Cougars travel to Houston Friday night to take on the 1-1 Houston Cougars at NRG Stadium (home of the NFL's Texans). The Cougars opened their season Sep 1 at Oklahoma and while they never threatened to win the game, they were able to cover as a 21 1/2-point underdog in the 18-point loss. However, Oklahoma ran up 686 total yards, as QB Jalen Hurts passed for 332 yards and three TDs, while adding 176 rushing yards and another three TDs. Last Saturday's 37-17 home win over Prairie View A&M was hardly impressive. Will Houston have much luck slowing down Gordon and the WSU offense? No, but don't be too quick to dismiss Houston. UH is 3-0 at NRG Stadium (just five miles for the campus) since 2012, a 33-23 upset over Oklahoma in 2016. Even more noteworthy is the fact that Houston is 8-1 ATS as an underdog vs ranked teams since 2013 (that's an 89% winning situation). The LONE non-cover in that stretch came in last year's 70-14 beatdown by Army in Armed Forces Bowl when QB D’Eriq King was out with injury. King is a true dual-threat, who passed for 2,582 yards in 2018 (36-6 ratio) plus ran for 674 yards and 14 TDs. In a much 'friendlier' venue that Norman on Sep 1, don't be surprised if King out-shines Gordon, giving the 20th-ranked Cougars all they want. Upset alert? Maybe, but take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-13-19 | Brewers v. Cardinals -123 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the StL Cardinals at 8:15 ET. The St Louis Cardinals returned from the All Star break just 44-44 but except for a five-game West Coast swing in which the team went 0-5 vs the A's and Dodgers from Aug 3-7, they have been the NL Central's best team. St Louis is 38-20 since the break, including 24-9 since that five-game skid. The Cards welcome the Brewers to St Louis with a four-game lead over Milwaukee (and Chicago) in the division.Milwaukee posted a 19-7 record last September to erase a five-game deficit before it won the division in Game 163 and the Brewers have opened this September 9-2 and enter this series on a SEVEN-game winning streak. Taking the mound for tonight's series opener will be Adrian Houser (6-5, 3.59 ERA) and Adam Wainwright (11-9, 4.16 ERA). Houser entered the 2019 season with just nine career appearances, all in relief. He's made 31 appearances this season, including 14 starts. This marks his NINTH consecutive start. Houser has allowed just one ER in SIX of his last eight starts but he's really no more than a five-inning pitcher. He takes the mound tonight off three straight no-decisions (team is 1-2), lasting only 13.1 innings. Wainwright was one of the NL's top starters from 2009-14, winning 19 or 20 games FOUR times during that stretch (note: he did not pitch at all in 2011). He was limited by injury to just eight starts in 2018 but he's making his 28th start of 2019 in this one. Wainwright has struggled all season on the road (6.03 ERA in 14 outings) but in his 13 home starts, he owns a 2.43 ERA. Wainwright is a veteran who is well-familiar with the Brewers, posting an impressive 2.57 ERA in 34 career starts (Cards are 22-12). I'm backing the vet here in the first contest of this HUGE 3-game series, against the virtually unknown (and untested) Houser. What's more, the Brewers will play the rest of the season without last year's NL MVP, Christian Yelich (broken kneecap). Yelich leads the team in BA (.329), HRs (44) and RBI (97). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-13-19 | Dodgers -126 v. Mets | 9-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Dodgers at 7:10 ET. New York put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot (note: the Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span). However, the Mets lost SIX in a row from Aug 23-29, as their wild card hopes took a big hit. In fact, the Mets were four games behind the Chicago Cubs for the second wild card in the NL on Sunday, after losing for the 10th time in 15 road games. But, New York has regrouped by outscoring Arizona 26-4 during a four-game sweep Mon-Thu. Thursday's 11-1 victory moved the Mets within just TWO games of the Cubs and Milwaukee, teams significantly weakened by the respective losses of Javier Baez and Christian Yelich over the last few days. The Dodgers have no such concerns about qualifying for the playoffs, as they clinching their SEVENTH straight NL West crown on Tuesday. 95-93 Los Angeles trails the New York Yankees by two games for the best record in the majors and extended its lead over Atlanta for the best mark in the NL to four games following Thursday's 4-2 win over Baltimore. Clayton Kershaw (13-5, 3.06 ERA) and Noah Syndergaard (10-7, 4.06 ERA) will square off Friday night at Citi Field. Kershaw was 13-2 (2.71 ERA) through his first 22 starts in 2019 (Dodgers were 18-4!) but the three-time Cy Young winner has lost THREE in a row, while posting an 'ugly' a 6.19 ERA. Kershaw is coming off a start last Friday against San Francisco, after pitching a season-low four innings Friday. The three-start losing streak is his first since June 17-27, 2015. Syndergaard has had a strange year. Here's an example. He won 7-3 at Washington on Sep 2, pitching seven scoreless innings while allowing three hits and striking out 10. However, in his previous start, he allowed 10 runs (nine earned) in just three innings of a 10-7 home loss to the Cubs. He then followed his outstanding Sep 2 effort vs the Nats, by lasting just five innings and allowing four ERs in taking a no-decision as the Mets loss at home to the Phillies on Sep 8. Can the Mets continue their recent surge? I sure don't trust Syndergaard, who recently made waves by publicly requesting to pitch to backup catchers Tomas Nido or Rene Rivera instead of Wilson Ramos. Syndergaard's ERA fell to 5.09 ERA in 15 starts with Ramos following Sunday's loss to Philadelphia but manager Mickey Callaway intends to stick with his starting catcher. Think this is a positive situation? Getting back to Kershaw, the Mets seem like the perfect "bounce-back" opponent, as he's 10-1 with a 2.21 ERA over 16 career starts vs the Mets (Dodgers are 14-2, an 88% winning situation). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3 | Top | 18-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Non-Conference ACC Showdown is on Wake Forest at 6:00 ET Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a 5-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. The Tar Heels upset South Carolina in Charlotte 24-20 as a 12 1/2-point dog on Aug 31 and then, after watching a 17-3 first-quarter lead evaporate (UNC trailed 25-20 with about 4 1/2 minutes left), pulled it together and scored a TD and added a two-point conversion with 1:01 remaining for a 28-25 victory. North Carolina plays its first true road game of 2019 this Saturday, when it visits Winston-Salem to take on ACC rival Wake Forest. Under the current ACC two-division, 14-team alignment, the Tar Heels and Demon Deacons are scheduled to play each other just once every SEVEN years. The schools wanted more and were allowed to play this year in what will be considered a "non-conference" contest (odd arrangement). Dave Clawson got his first FBS head coaching jog at Bowling Green in 2009 and in his fifth season (2013), his Falcons upset a 13-0 Northern Illinois team in the MAC championship game. He used that win to get the job at Wake and after going 3-9 in each of his first two years, he's led Wake to three straight bowl games, winning all THREE! Wake opened with a 38-35 home win over Utah St and then won 41-21 at Rice last Saturday. Both teams have QBs off to excellent starts. North Carolina freshman Sam Howell has passed for four scores and 519 yards while directing four-quarter comebacks in each of his first two contests. He's the first-ever first true freshman to start a season at QB for North Carolina. Eight different receivers have caught at least one pass through two games plus RB Javonte Williams has added 178 rushing yards on 6.4 YPC. Wake's Jamie Newman, who won a quarterback battle in training camp after starting the final four games a season ago, has completed 74.3% for 713 yards (that total leads the ACC) with six TDs and not a single INT. The running game chips in 189.5 YPG (4.1 YPC). Kudos to Brown for his team's fast start but the Tar Heels have played at Charlotte (hardly a neutral site against the Gamecocks) plus at home vs Miami. This true road game at Wake will be a big test, against an offense averaging 39.5 PPG on 546.0 YPG (12th), including 356.5 YPG through the air (11th). The Carolina hype is running high, as it's been said that the people at Chapel Hill haven't already turned their attention to Roy Williams' basketball team.Wake owns some explosive playmakers and it just may be time to start talking hoops in Chapel Hill after this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-12-19 | Braves -119 v. Phillies | 5-9 | Loss | -119 | 11 h 44 m | Show | |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (NL East) is on the Atl Braves at 7:15 ET. Dallas Keuchel pitched six solid innings and three relievers held the lead in a 3-1 Atlanta victory Wednesday in Philadelphia. The team's 19-4 run the last 23 games has pushed Atlanta's lead to 9 1/2 games over the Washington Nationals in the NL East. As for the Phillies, they have been 'stuck in neutral' since the All Star break (28-27) but have to consider themselves lucky that they are still in the wild card hunt. At 75-70, Philadelphia is tied with the Mets (and a half-game ahead of Arizona), TWO games back of Chicago and Milwaukee (Cubs and Brewers are tied for the NL's second wild card spot). Atlanta goes for the series win tonight, having won two of the first three games.Julio Teheran (10-8, 3.31 ERA) gets the ball for the Braves, while the Phillies counter with lefty Drew Smyly (4-6, 6.20 ERA).Teheran continued Atlanta’s recent run of excellent starting pitching by holding Washington to one run on three hits with one walk and eight strikeouts over six innings this past Saturday in a 5-4 Atlanta win. He has allowed just three ERs across 25 innings in his last four starts, giving him a 1.08 ERA and a .167 opponents batting average by allowing just 14 hits allowed in that span. Phily picked up Smyly after Texas released him and one had to wonder why. Smyly had gone 1-5 with an 8.42 ERA and 1.91 WHIP in 13 games (nine starts) with Texas before being released,. However, the lefty signed with the Phillies on July 21 and is 3-1 with a 3.93 ERA in nine starts (team is 7-2). Smyly has pitched VERY well in two September starts, allowing just one run on eight hits with 14 strikeouts over 12.1 innings (0.73 ERA) while beating Cincinnati and the New York Mets. Looking a little closer at Smyly's record with Philly and one sees that the team is 5-0 in his road starts (2.60 ERA) but 2-2 in his home starts (5.56 ERA). That hardly bodes well against an Atlanta team which is 16-7 vs lefties in night games this season, including 8-3 on the road. Meanwhile, Atlanta has won 16 of Teheran's last 23 starts, giving him a 19-11 record in team starts on the season (+$702 moneyline mark ranks 15th-best). While he's pitched slightly better at home on the season, let me note that in his last FIVE road starts (going back to June 29), he's posted a 2.17 ERA. The Braves have safely put away the NL East title but the team's recent hot steak has them just THREE game back of the Dodgers for the NL's best record (and homefield advantage). Atlanta wins AGAIN! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-12-19 | Diamondbacks +134 v. Mets | Top | 1-11 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Arz D'backs at 1:10 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks won 11 of 12 contests from Aug 25-Sep 7, jumping to the front of the line in a long list of contenders chasing the last wild card in the National League. However, after last night's 9-0 loss at Citi Field, Arizona has suddenly dropped the first three of this four-game series with the Mets, as well as FOUR in a row, overall. The Mets can relate. New York put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot (note: the Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span). However, the Mets are just 13-14 since Aug 11. Here's how the wild card standings look as of this morning. The Nats own the No. 1 spot by 3 1/2 games over the Cubs and Brewers, who are tied for the No. 2 spot. Chicago and Milwaukee are two games up on Philadelphia and New York, with Arizona 2 1/2 games back. The Mets go for the four-game home sweep, as Arizona sends rookie Alex Young (7-3, 3.38 ERA) to the mound up against New York's Marcus Stroman (7-13, 3.42 ERA). Young posted a franchise rookie record with 12 strikeouts while scattering two hits over eight innings in Saturday's 2-0 win versus Cincinnati. The D'backs haven't won since! Young has been great for Arizona and he's thrived on the road. His ERA of 2.29 is more than two full runs lower than his home ERA (4.60), plus his road WHIP is .096 and BAA checks in at .194. The Mets were thrilled to trade for Stroman before the trade deadline but he's been a disappointment. The Mets did win his first four starts with the Mets but he pitched a modest 19.2 innings in those four outings, while posting a 5.1`2 ERA. However, his so-so pitching (I'm being VERY kind here) has caught up to him, as the Mets have lost his last three starts (6.43 ERA). Young has never opposed the Mets, while Stroman is 1-1 with a 4.61 ERA in just two career starts against the Diamondbacks. "Big game" for both teams, as time is clearly running out and there is room for just ONE of five teams in this battle for the second wild card spot. I want the red-hot rookie, over the struggling veteran, as the D'backs avoid the four-game sweep. Good luck..Larry | |||||||
09-11-19 | Cubs +100 v. Padres | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Cubs at 10:10 ET. Kris Bryant hit a pair of two-run HRs and Jason Heyward also homered twice and drove in three runs for the Cubs, who rallied from a 6-2 deficit in the third inning to tie it at 8-all in the 8th inning. However, with the bases load in the bottom of the 10th, the Cubs gave up a four-pitch walk which allowed the Padres to win 9-8. The loss followed a 10-2 Chicago win on Monday. The Cubs' fourth loss in their last five games cut into their lead in the race for the National League's second wild card. Milwaukee is just one game back, Philadelphia is two games behind Chicago plus Arizona is 2 1/2 games back playing at New York (Mets are three games back!). As for the 67-77 Padres, they will finish with a losing record for the NINTH straight season. Tonight's pitching matchup features veteran Cole Hamels (7-6. 3.95 ERA) and rookie Chris Paddack (8-7, 3.54 ERA). Hamels left his June 28 start after one inningbecause of a strained left oblique. He owned a 2.98 ERA over 17 appearances at the time. He would miss FIVE weeks and in seven starts since returning to the rotation, he 1-3 with a 7.12 ERA (Cubs are 3-4). Paddack started strong in 2019, going 4-2 with a 1.93 ERA thru May 20 (San Diego was 7-2 in his nine starts). However, the season would take a toll on the 23-year-old, who won just THREE times in his next 13 starts. However, he has rebounded in his last two starts, allowing just one run on nine hits while registering 16 strikeouts over 12.1 innings in a win over San Francisco a no-decision against Arizona. Yes, the Cubs have struggled all season on the road (just 30-43) but Chicago is still "right in" the wild card race. Chicago hitters have battered San Diehgo pitchers for 18 runs on 24 hits in the first two games of this series and I wouldn't want to be Paddack in this one. As for Hamels, the veteran (and former World Series MVP) knows more than just a little about pitching in big games. He's got an outstanding 9-2 (2.45 ERA) in 18 career starts against the Padres, with his teams going 14-4. What's more, Hamels grew up 25 miles away from Petco Park and has thrived in his returns to his hometown ballpark, where he is 5-1 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in nine outings at the downtown San Diego stadium. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-11-19 | Reds -139 v. Mariners | 3-5 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 8 m | Show | |
My 7* Pitching Mismatch is on the Cin Reds at 10:10 ET. The Seattle Mariners opened September with an 11-3 win at Texas, before losing the final SIX contests of their 2-8 road trip. Seattle began its six-game homestand on Tuesday by ending that six-game losing streak,when Kyle Seager hit a two-run HR in the eighth inning to give the Mariners a 4-3 win. Kyle Lewis hit a solo shot in his major-league debut and Dylan Moore also went homered, as THREE of the Mariners' four hits were home runs. Tuesday marked the first contest of a nine-game road trip for the Reds, who fell to 27-43 on the road in 2019. Wednesday's pitching matchup features Sonny Gray (10-6, 2.75 ERA) and Marco Gonzales (14-11, 4.37 ERA). Gray struggled during his 1 1/2-year tenure with the New York Yankees but after a very poor start with the Reds (0-4 with a 4.15 ERA over his first NINE starts of 2019 with the Reds going 3-6), he's reverted back to the form he displayed with Oakland that made him one of MLB's most promising pitchers. Gray is 10-2 over his last 19 starts (Reds are 15-4), allowing three ERs or less in 17 of those starts. He posted an 0.74 ERA in six August starts and then allowed one ER over six innings of a 4-3 win in his first start of September. Gonzales has done a credible job pitching for the sad-sack Mariners, but he has been ineffective since recording his career-high 14th victory back on Aug 25. He's surrendered 11 runs (nine earned) on 14 hits over just 11 innings in his last two starts (7.36 ERA). Gray is just 'ON FIRE' and he has an strong history against the Mariners (remember, he started with the A's), posting a 2.71 ERA in 11 career starts. Gonzales is in "over his head" here and it hardly helps that he's pitching for a team which hasn't posted consecutive wins in THREE weeks (since Aug 17-20). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-11-19 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -112 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks won 11 of 12 contests from Aug 25-Sep 7, jumping to the front of the line in a long list of contenders chasing the last wild card in the National League. However, after last night's 3-2 loss at Citi Field, Arizona has suddenly dropped THREE in a row. The Mets, who are responsible for Arizona's last two losses, can relate. New York put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot (note: the Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span). However, the Mets are just 12-14 since Aug 11. Here's how the wild card standings look as of this morning. The Nats own the No. 1 spot by 2 1/2 games and the Cubs the No. 2 spot, one game up on Milwaukee, two up on Philadelphia, 2 1/2 up on Arizona and three up on New York. The third contest of this critical four-game series features a pair of lefty starters, Robbie Ray (12-7, 4.03 ERA) and Steven Matz (9-8, 4.00 ERA). Ray went just 13-27 in his first two seasons with Arizona (2015 & '16) but then went 15-5 (2.89 ERA) in 2017, as Arizona went 20-8 (+$1,166) in all his starts (3rd-best ML mark that season). However, he was just 6-2 over 24 starts in 2018, as Arizona went 11-13. Ray has been up and down in 2018 plus Ray missed 10 days with a back injury in August. He was removed from his most recent outing (allowed 3 ERs in 4.1 innings on Sep 6) with a blister on his left middle finger. Reportedly, he's fine (we'll see). We do know that he owns 2-0 record with an 0.82 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in four career starts against the Mets (teams are 3-1). Matz suffered through a brutal June, as the Mets lost FIVE of his six starts (76.36 ERA). He was sent to the bullpen (and made two relief appearances) to open July but returned to the rotation after the All Star break. He's been excellent save ONE start, since. Matz has allowed two ERs or less in NINE of his 10 second-half starts, including allowing just six ERs over 33.2 innings (1.60 ERA) in five home starts in that stretch. That's mirrors what been the case for Matz' 2019 season. He owns a 6.08 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .291 BAA in road games in 2019 but a 2.11 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and .228 BAA in home games. I had the Mets last night and "the situation" is just right for them to win again, tonight! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-10-19 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -123 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The Mets put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot. The Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span. However, the Mets opened a four-game home series with the D'backs last night just 11-14 since Aug 11. As for Arizona, when the the Diamondbacks traded Zack Greinke at "the last second," it was assumed that the team had "given up" on the 2019 season. A 3-7 stretch from Aug 14-24 seemed to confirm that premise but all of a sudden, the D'backs had "come alive," with 11 wins in their last 13 games after that 3-7 slump. New York rookie Pete Alonso hit a pair of solo HRs last night (he leads all of MLB with 47) as the Mets took the series opener, 3-1. It was just New York's SIXTH victory in its last 16 contests, while Arizona has now dropped back-to-back outings after winning five in a row and 11 of its previous 12. The wild card standings look like this. The Nats own the No. 1 spot and the Cubs the No. 2 spot, two games up on Milwaukee, 2 1/2 up on Arizona, three up on Philadelphia and four up on New York. Zac Gallen (3-4, 2.50 ERA) will take the mound tonight for the D'backs, opposed by the Mets' Zack Wheeler (10-7, 4.33 ERA). Gallen lost a no-hit bid in the seventh inning and exited after allowing just that single over seven scoreless innings last Wednesday in a 4-1 victory against San Diego. The 24-year-old is 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six starts since being acquired from Miami (D'backs are 5-1). Gallen didn't factor into the decision in his only start against the Mets back on July 13, when, as a member of the Miami Marlins, he allowed two runs over five innings in Miami's 4-2 loss. Many expected Wheeler to be moved at the trade deadline but that didn't happen. He responded by delivering 15 consecutive scoreless innings in back-to-back 4-0 and 5-0 wins to open August. Wheeler allowed just one run in five innings of an 8-4 win at Washington on Wednesday, improving to 4-1 with a 3.42 ERA in eight starts since coming off the injured list in late July. The Mets are 6-2 in those eight starts, as he's allowed three ERs or less in all six of those team wins (note: both losses came against the Braves!). There's nothing bad to say about Gallen's efforts since coming to Arizona but there could be a "let down" off his terrific last outing (see above for a reminder). As for Wheeler, since coming off the DL he's NOT been up to the challenge of pitching against the Braves (11 IP / 18 hits / 10 ERs / 8.18 ERA) but in his other six starts, he's posted a 1.98 ERA. Wheeler's had good success vs Arizona in his career, going 3-1 with a 2.82 ERA in six starts (Mets are 4-2). Situation is "just right" to play the Mets! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders +3 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* AFC West Game of the Month is on the Oak Raiders at 10:20 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 & 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. The Raiders made it to the Super Bowl in 2002 (lost to Tampa Bay and Jon Gruden) but have since had just ONE winning season in the last 15. Ironically, Jon Gruden was hired away from the TV booth to resurrect the team last season but that hardly went well, as Oakland finished 4-12 The Raiders went 3-1 in the preseason but the month of August was dominated by disgruntled wide receiver Antonio Brown. It appeared that the Raiders were going to suspend Brown before he delivered an emotional apology to teammates Friday, when the club changed course and said he would play Monday. However, Brown posted "release me" Saturday on Instagram and Oakland complied after an tumultuous training camp and a heated exchange with 1st-year GM Mike Mayock. The Raiders released Brown two days prior to tonight's season opener. To add "insult to injury," Brown immediately signed with the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots. That's the back story. Here in 2019, the Broncos and Raiders are expected to battle for 3rd 7 4th-place in the division (Chiefs are the clear favorite with the Chargers a legitimate threat and strong wild card contender). Joe Flacco is Denver's latest starting QB and I have NO faith he's got much of anything left. He burst on the scene to lead the Ravens to the playoffs in each of his 1st five years and in 2012, led Baltimore to the championship. Flacco had a "Montana-like" postseason in 2012, passing for 1,140 yards in four wins with 11 TD & 0 INTs (117.2 QB rating). His timing was just right, as on March 4, 2013, he became the highest-paid QB in NFL history when he signed a six-year contract worth $120.6 million (that has long-since be surpassed). However, after posting a 54-26 record as a starter through his first five seasons Flacco was just 42-41 as a starter the L6 seasons. A hip injury during a Wk 9 loss in 2018 saw Flacco replaced by rookie Lamar Jackson, who led the Ravens to a 6-1 finish. In February 2019, the Ravens agreed to trade Flacco to the Denver Broncos in exchange for their 4th-round pick in the 2014 draft. BTW... Jackson threw for 324 yards & 5TD passes in Baltimore's 59-10 Week 1 win. Without Brown, Tyrell Williams will likely emerge as the marquee WR for Oakland, as he makes his club debut after catching 153 passes and scoring 16 TDs over the last three seasons with the Chargers. Oakland selected running back Josh Jacobs with the 24th overall pick and hope the former Alabama star can improve a ground game that was 25th in the league in each of the last two seasons, while taking pressure off QB Derek Carr.The Raiders made protecting Carr a bigger priority this season after he was sacked a career-worst 51 times last year. Let's not be too quick to forget. Carr barely missed throwing for 4,000 yards in 2015 and 2016 (3,900-plus) and featured a 60-19 TD-to-INT ratio. Despite getting sacked 51 times in 2018, he threw for 4,049 yards with 19 TDs and just 10 INTs in 553 attempts! You may read the following and get nervous. Denver owns the league's highest Week 1 winning percentage at .672 (39-19-1) and has won seven straight season openers, which is the NFL's longest active streak. Then again, how about this for some current trends?The Broncos are just 5-13 ATS during their past 18 away matchups and have failing to cover in EIGHT of their last 10 division games. Better yet, let's note that he home team has won the last SIX meetings in the series and Oakland comes in as a home dog! I love Carr over Flacco in this matchup. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-09-19 | Pirates v. Giants -160 | 6-4 | Loss | -160 | 10 h 6 m | Show | |
My 7* Weekly Wipeout is on the SF Giants at 9:45 ET. The 2019 MLB regular season has just THREE weeks left and the 69-74 Giants not only need to make up 7 1/2 games in order to earn the second wild-card playoff berth in the National League but in order to do so, they would need to pass FIVE other teams. The 62-81 Pirates have no such concerns, as their 7-38 start out of the All Star break took them out of any wild card aspirations by August (currently sit 14 1/2 games back). However, the teams open a four-game series tonight in San Francisco with something in common. Both Pittsburgh and San Francisco each recorded a total of just ONE run over the weekend. The Pirates lost 10-1 to the Cardinals on Saturday, and then managed only five hits in a 2-0 setback on Sunday.The Giants eked out a 1-0 victory over the LA Dodgers on Saturday, before getting blanked 5-0 in the finale of that three-game series on Sunday. Monday's pitching matchup will feature Trevor Williams (7-6, 5.16 ERA) and Madison Bumgarner (9-8, 3.81 ERA). The Pirates won Williams' first FOUR starts (2.59 ERA) but he enters this start of 2019 with a 5.16 ERA and a .282 BAA..However, Williams posted his third consecutive quality start by allowing two ERs in six innings of Pittsburgh's 6-5 win over Miami this past Wednesday. He has 12 strikeouts against two walks while allowing just one HR during this solid three-start stretch (he's 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA / team is 3-0). As for Bumgarner, after a 1-4 (4.30 ERA) start through six outings (team was just 1-5), the three-time World Series champ has seen the Giants go 18-6 in his last 24 starts, as he allowed three ERs or less 18 times. The Giants won Bumgarner's last start 9-8 but he pitched poorly at St Louis, allowing six ERs over five innings. Here's the bottom line with him in 2019. He's got a 5.06 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and .280 BAA on the road but a 2.83 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and .213 BAA at home. The Giants postseason hopes may be all but 'dead,' but Bumgarner has been a steady money-maker since the beginning of May (see above). That's the bet! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-09-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox +103 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. The Red Sox bested the Yankees 6-1 on Friday (beating NY ace German) but the Yankees won 5-1 on Saturday and then again 10-5 last night on ESPN, homering THREE times. New York now has 268 HRs in 2019, eclipsing the team single-season home run record it set just last year. The Yankees look to win win their fifth consecutive series by taking tonight's series finale (New York hasn't lost a series since being swept in Oakland from Aug.20-22.). The Yankees are 94-50, tied with the Astros for the AL's best record, with both teams ahead of the NL's 93-52 Dodgers (by 1 1/2 games) for MLB's best overall record. The defending champion Red Sox are 76-67 and with just 19 games remaining, are all but eliminated from serious wild card consideration (sit EIGHT games back of the second wild card spot). It's a 'battle' of red-hot lefties tonight in Fenway, as James Paxton (12-6, 4.16 ERA) and Eduardo Rodriguez (17-5, 3.81 ERA square off. Paxton's last start in Fenway came back on July 26, when he was ripped for seven ERs in just four innings of a 10-5 loss. A the time, he was 5-6 with a 4.72 ERA. However, he hasn't lost since, winning SEVEN consecutive starts to match the career-high victory total he registered in 2017 with Seattle (12-5, 2.98 ERA). Paxton is coming off an outstanding outing against Texas on Tuesday in which he allowed one hit and one walk while recording a season high-tying 12 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings of a 10-1 win. He's got a 2.98 ERA in his seven-game winning streak and he's 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA in seven career starts against the Red Sox (teams are 5-2). Rodriguez is also coming off a scoreless effort, a seven-inning 6-2 victory over Minnesota on Wednesday in which he scattered five hits and issued four walks while registering eight strikeouts en route to extending his winning streak to four starts. Rodriguezlast lost opposite Paxton on Aug 2, when he surrendered four runs on five hits and a season-high six walks in 6.2 frames of 4-2 New York win. That defeat dropped Rodriguez to 6-5 with a 4.03 ERA in 17 career games (15 starts / teams are 8-7) vs New York. Yes, Boston is basically done for the season but this contest marks its FINAL game of 2019 against the hated Yankees. In a year in which Sale has imploded and Price has been on and off the DL, Rodriguez has become Boston's 'ace.' Undoubtedly, he's been the team's biggest "money-maker" for the second straight season. He was 19-4 in team starts in 2018 (+$1,387) and here in 2019, his team record is 22-7 (+$1,428), which is the No. 1 mark among starters. Rodriguez is 8-1 in 14 Fenway starts, with Boston going 12-2. This is his "playoff game" and I'm betting he delivers the "W!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots -5 | Top | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the NE Pats at 8:20 ET. The New England Patriots have won six world championships over the past 18 seasons behind future Hall of Famer Tom Brady (Belichick may deserve some credit here, as well) and will begin their bid for a FOURTH consecutive Super Bowl appearance (only team to have done that is the Bills) against the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night. The Patriots have won at least 10 games in 16 straight seasons, tying the San Francisco f49ers for the most in NFL history. The Steelers are a fitting Week 1 opponent for the Pats, as Pittsburgh is the only other franchise to win six Super Bowls and happens to be the last team to beat the Pats, winning 17-10 in Week 15 of last year at Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger begins his 16th NFL season, after throwing for 5,129 yards and 34 TDs last season. However, WR Antonio Brown, who surpassed 100 receptions and 1,200 yards in each of the last SIX seasons is now playing for Oakland (I think?) and Le'Veon Bell, arguably the NFL's most-versatile RB, is now playing for the Jets, after sitting out all of last year. The good news is that wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster showed he is capable of a No. 1 role by catching 111 passes and scoring seven times in 2018, while James Conner stepped in for Bell and rushed for 973 yards and 12 scores while gathering in 55 receptions and a TD in 2018. Brady will surely miss Gronk but the 42-year-old showed few signs of slowing down in 2018, throwing for 4,355 yards and 29 touchdowns despite playing with a patchwork crew of WRs (that's not exactly new). Julian Edelman captured Most Valuable Player honors in Super Bowl LIII with 10 receptions for 141 yards plus RB Sony Michel rushed for 930 yards and six scores as a rookie, while backfield mate James White led the team with 87 catches. There have been naysayers recently with some of New England's defensive play but the unit held the Rams (32.9 PPG in the regular season) to just THREE points in the Super Bowl win. The Steelers 17-10 win as 2 1/2-point home underdogs in Week 15 was the the team's first victory against New England since 2011. Brady has never lost to the Steelers at Gillette Stadium (5-0), as Big Ben’s only career win at Gillette Stadium came when Tom Brady was sidelined in 2008. Brady owns a 13-3 record in Week 1, completing nearly 70-percent of his passes while throwing for 34 TDs against just 10 interceptions. The Steelers were 6-0 as an underdog in 2018 but how does one ignore that the Pats enters this contest with a 39-16-2 ATS mark (71.0%) their last 57 home games. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-19 | Rockies v. Padres -143 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
My free play is on the SD Padres at 4:10 ET. Manny Machado's first season with the San Diego Padres is coming to an end and the 65-76 Padres will finish with a losing record for the NINTH straight season. The Padres will host the Colorado Rockies in the rubber match of this three-game series today,as the Rockies. The Rockies won 91 games in 2018, losing a one-game playoff with the Dodgers for the NL West title but then won the NL wild card game 2-1 (13 inn) over the Cubs. Colorado's season ended by getting swept 3-0 in the NLDS by the Brewers. However, the Rockies enter this game a woeful 60-83, 31 1/2 games behind the Dodgers in the division, the team the Rockies tied with for the best record in 2018, forcing that one-game playoff. Taking the mound today will be Peter Lambert (2-6, 7.19 ERA) and Eric Lauer (8-8, 4.55 ERA). Lambert lost his SIXTH straight decision this past Monday, allowing six runs on eight hits over just 1.2 innings of a 16-9 loss at the Los Angeles Dodgers. “I didn’t have my A-game,” he told reporters. “They had some big hits and got it going. The season is a grind and I have to keep grinding it out.” With all dues respect, just what "A-game" can this guy bring? His ERA is 7.19, his WHIP is 1.73 and his BAA is .322. In road games, those numbers say 7.47, 1.95 and .348. The 22-year-old rookie allowed eight ERs over just three innings against San Diego back on June 16 (his lone carer starts vs teh Padres). Lauer isn't exactly Sandy Koufax but he's 3-0 (team is 5-1) with a 4.65 ERA sin six starts since Aug 1. Lauer won his second straight start last Sunday, allowing four runs with a career-high nine strikeouts over six innings vs San Francisco (17 Ks over 12 innings of his last two starts. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-19 | Bengals v. Seahawks OVER 44 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Cin/Sea Over at 4:05 ET. Zac Taylor, the newest member of the NFL's under-40 coaching fraternity,has replaced Marvin Lewis (16 seasons) as head coach at Cincinnati. The 36-year-old takes his Bengals to Seattle for a Week 1 contest with the Seahawks on Sunday. The Seahawks feature the new highest-paid player in the NFL in QB Russell Wilson, the highest-paid inside linebacker in the league in All-Pro Bobby Wagner plus just added a prime asset to their defense with the recent acquisition of pass rusher Jadeveon Clowney. Lewis led the Benglas to seven postseasons, including FIVE straight from 2011-15, but NEVER won a single playoff game. After three straight losing seasons from 2016-18, Lewis was finally let go. Pete Carroll begins his 10th season as Seattle's head coach and he's taken the Seahawks to SEVEN postseason in nine years, including back-to-back Super Bowl appearances in 2013 and 2014. Seattle won it all in 2013 and then in 2014, Carroll made one of the most infamous of all Super Bowl play-calls, as the Seahawks fell to the Pats. That said, while the Bengals are hardly considered playoff material in 2019, the Seahawks are expected to be a contender in the NFC. QB Andy Dalton has seven 3,000-yard seasons in his career but is facing criticism at age 31 on whether he is the long-term solution under the new coaching regime. However, Taylor has publicly praised him and the fact remains that Cincy has skill position talent even without injured wide-out A.J. Green.It should be noted that Bengals opened lat season 5-3, before an injury-decimated team finished by losing SEVEN of its last eight games. Russell Wilson is primed for a big year, as in 2018, he joined Peyton Manning as the only QBs in NFL history to pass for 3,000 yards and 20 TDs in each of their first SEVEN seasons. What's more, the Seahawks had the top rushing offense in the NFL in 2018, averaging 160.0 YPG. Chris Carson ran for 1,151 yards (4.7 YPC / 9 TDs) and Marshawn has been long forgotten. On the other side of the ball, Clowney's addition late in training camp displayed the urgency Seattle felt at improving a defense that has slipped in recent seasons and allowed 353.3 YPG last season, ranking 16th of 32 teams (quite a drop-off from "The Legion of Boom" days). Seattle is 14-0 in home games in September over the last nine seasons and averaged 28.5 PPG at home in 2018. However, as noted above, the team's D is not what it used to be. Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of seven or more points during the last two seasons and I believe the Bengals just may give Seattle some trouble here.I fully expect Wilson (and his new and improved running game) to match or exceed its home scoring average from last year but I also expect Dalton and Co. to move the ball as well. O-V-E-R is the way to go! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-19 | Nationals -125 v. Braves | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Was Nats at 1:20 ET. Washington Nationals lost their FIFTH straight game back on May 23 and sat 19-31. However, the Nats then went on a 56-27 run to get them withing 'shouting distance' of the Braves in the NL East plus put them in prime position in the NL wild card race. However, the Nats opened the week by dropping TWO of three to the Mets in Washington and they now have lost the first three of a four-game series in Atlanta against the Braves. Atlanta's 5-4 win on Saturday marked a season-best NINTH straight, while the Braves also set a modern-day franchise mark with their 13th consecutive home victory. The 89-54 Braves now lead the 78-63 Nats by 10 games in the division and their magic number to clinch the NL East is 11. The Nationals still own the No. 1 wild card spot but their margin over the Cubs is just two games, while the Nats are only 3 1/2 games clear of the NL playoff 'cut line!' Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.60 ERA) takes the mound for Washington and Mike Soroka (11-3, 2.53 ERA) for Atlanta. Scherzer originally hit the IL on July 13 before returning to pitch against the Rockies on July 25, allowing three runs in five innings and throwing a season-low 86 pitches. Four days later, Scherzer landed on the IL again, where he remained until returning on August 22. He was 9-5 with a 2.41 ERA through 20 starts at that time, with 189 strikeouts in 134.1 innings. However, the Nats had gone 0-5 in his six no-decisions, leaving him 9-11 in team starts, minus-$1,089 against the moneyline. Scherzer was limited in his first two starts after missing almost a month with a back injury, allowing three ERs on 10 hits over 8.1 innings (3.24 ERA) in two no-decisions The good news for Scherzer was that the Nats won BOTH of those contests. Scherzer's third start back was Tuesday against the Mets, when he gave up four runs on five hits with one walk and seven strikeouts in six innings. However, there was good news, as he reached 90 pitches. Soroka's had quite a rookie season, as his 2.53 ERA is third-best in MLB and the Braves have gone 17-8 in his starts. Looking closer, we find that while's he's been terrific on the road, he's has problems here at SunTrust Park. Soroka owns a 1.44 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .203 BAA on the road, while his ERA balloons to 4.02 at home, with his WHIP climbing to 1.32 and his BAA a to .275. The Braves are due to lose sometime and I think this is the perfect spot. True, they've won the first three games of this series but the scores have been 4-2, 4-3 and 5-4. The Nats have made a terrific turnaround in 2019 but it's "slipping away." They enter on a four-game slide, the team's longest since Washington lost FIVE in a row May 19-23, leaving them 19-31 on the season (see above). Scherzer is a true ace and "gets the job done against a rookie struggling in his home park. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-19 | Diamondbacks v. Reds -125 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Pitch-Perfect Play is on the Cin Reds at 1:10 ET. When the the Arizona Diamondbacks traded Zack Greinke at "the last second," it was assumed that the team had "given up" on the 2019 season. A 3-7 stretch from Aug 14-24 seemed to confirm that premise but all of a sudden, the D'backs have "come alive." Arizona began this week with a three-game home sweep of the Padres and have then opened a seven-game road trip with wins in the first two of a three-game series this weekend in Cincinnati. 75-67 Arizona now looks to finish off a road sweep of the Reds on Sunday afternoon, having won FIVE in a row and 11 of their last 12 contests to move within 1 1/2 games of the Chicago Cubs for the NL’s second wild card. The 66-77 Reds are 'buried' in the NL wild card race (11 games back) and the team's only role the rest of September will be as a "spoiler." Arizona sends Mike Leake (11-10, 4.71 ERA) to the mound, while Cincy counters with Anthony DeSclafani (9-8, 4.10 ERA).Leake has earned victories in his last two starts, allowing six ERs over 13.2 innings (3.95 ERA). However, he was winless in his first four outings (0-2 / team was 1-3 / Leake's ERA was an 'ugly' 8.02) with Arizona, after going 9-8 in 22 starts (Mariners were 11-11) with a 4.27 ERA while with Seattle. I'm not quite sure what Arizona thought it was getting with Leake? DeSclafani gave up just three hits in seven innings (with 8 Ks) against Philadelphia on Monday but two of the three hits were HRs, as he took the 7-1 loss (he allowed four ERs). That game followed him allowing just two ERs in his previous three starts over innings 18 innings (1.00 ERA and 20 Ks). The 29-year-old has 147 strikeouts over 142.2 innings on the season but has served up a career-most 27 HRs in 27 starts this season. Here's the rub. No doubt Arizona is on a roll but why trust Leake and his 4.71 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .290 BAA on the entire season? In his six starts with Arizona, his ERA is 6.423, his WHIP is 1.54 and his BAA against is .338 Want more? Yes, he hasn't faced the Reds since pitching for St Louis in 2017 but he's is 0-5 with a 4.75 ERA in eight career starts against them, with his teams going 0-8 (that's a 100% "go-against!). DeScalfani is good enough to help Cincy avoid the sweep here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-19 | Falcons v. Vikings -4 | Top | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 37 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Sep Game of the Month is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. The Falcons and the Vikings square off in a Week 1 matchup at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minnesota.on Sunday afternoon.The Falcons ended a 12-game preseason losing streak on Aug 30 witha 31-12 win at Jacksonville (Jags finished 0-4). The Vikings lost their final preseason game but had won and covered their first three. That's nothing new, as Mike Zimmer is 19-6 SU and 14-7 ATS in preseason plays since taking over as Minnesota's head coach. Atlanta's Dan Quinn enters his fifth season as Atlanta's head coach but one wonders if he and his team will ever be able to overcome the devastating loss in the Super Bowl to the Pats following the 2016 season (blew a 28-3 lead!). Zimmer begins his sixth year at Minnesota (47-32-1 record). The Vikes' best season under Zimmer was in 2017 (13-3), when they lost the NFC championship game at Philly. Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been able to replicate what it did in the 2016 season when Matt Ryan (4,944 yards / 38-7 ratio) was the NFL's MVP and led the Falcons to the Super Bowl (Falcons were the NFL's highest-scoring team at 33.8 PPG).The Falcons averaged just 22.1 PPG in 2017 and while they improved slightly last season (26.8), they finished 7-9. The Falcons’ defense was 27th in yards per play allowed amid serious injuries to some of the team’s most important players in 2018. In fact, the defense has ranked no better than 20th in three out of four years under head coach Dan Quinn. In Stefon Diggs, Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook, the Vikings have an excellent group of playmakers. The offensive line is expected to be much better than it was in 2018, when it had trouble giving Kirk Cousins much time in the pocket. Cousins' difficulties against good teams have been well-documented but I'm not sure the Falcons will be a "good team" in 2019. The Vikings went 8-1-1 SU last season against teams that finished the year with fewer than 10 wins and own an 18-2-1 record against such teams over the last two seasons. Atlanta has covered the spread just ONCE in its last six games against Minnesota and checks in 4-12 ATS since 2017 on the regular season road (75% "go-against"). Minnesota is 36-16-1 ATS in its last 53 home games and Zimmer is 4-1 in season-openers plus checks in 9-3 ATS his last 12 September games. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-08-19 | Titans +6 v. Browns | 43-13 | Win | 100 | 65 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Cleveland Browns had a promising finish last year, winning FIVE of their last seven to end the season at 7-8-1. That's pretty rarefied air considering te team was 0-16, 1-15 and 3-13 the previous two seasons. That promising finish coupled with a strong off-season have expectations are running high in Cleveland. QB Baker Mayfield is trying to follow up an excellent rookie campaign (63.8% / 3,725 yards / 27-14 ratio). Star wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. joined the team in the off-season and join fellow WR Jarvis Landry (81 catches). RB Nick Chubb (996 yards / 5.2 YPC / 8 TDs) expects to top 1,000 yards in 2019.The Titans are a solid team in the AFC South, the most competitive and strongest division in the AFC. The Titans have won nine games in each of the last three years and the hope is that this is the year QB Marcus Mariota stays healthy (he's yet to play all 16 games). Tennessee doesn’t have superstars but the Titans don’t have any glaring weaknesses. Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. Offensively, a lot of the Titans success will come down to Mariota simply staying healthy. Tennessee made several moves in an effort to upgrade the protection around him, giving a $44 million contract to free agent left guard Rodger Saffold and drafting guard Nate Davis in the third round.The Titans have upgraded Mariota’s receiving corps, adding slot-option Adam Humphries, rookie wideout A.J. Brown and getting tight end Delanie Walker back from an ankle injury that sidelined him most of last season. RBDerrick Henry showed how dominant he can be by rushing for 585 yards and scoring seven TDs during the final four games. The Browns haven’t been ranked inside the top-20 in offensive points scored since 2007 but that should change in 2019. However, the Browns gave up the third-most yards per game last year (393.0 YPG), while ranking 28th in run defense (135.2 YPG). I think expectations are running WAY too high on the Browns. Is Mayfield really that good? He struggled against the better defensive teams he played against last season and the Titans will bring their "D" to Cleveland. Here's something I will NOT ignore. Cleveland is 5-14-2 ATS in its last 21 games in Week 1 and 9-20 ATS in its last 29 home games. As for the Titans, they have covered 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog of at least three points, while Browns have failed to cover EIGHT of their last 11 games as a favorite of at least three points. Finally, the Browns last won a Week 1 game back in 2004, losing 13 in a row before playing a 21-21 tie in 2018. At this pointspread, the Browns would have been 0-14 ATS in those games. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-19 | Giants v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Run-line Rout is on the LA Dodgers at 9:10 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers haven't yet officially clinched their SEVENTH straight NL West title but it's been pretty much a foregone conclusion since the All Star break. However, still at stake for LA here in September is securing the NL's best overall record and catching the Yankees and Astros for MLB's best overall record. Both of those pursuits took a hit last night, as the Dodgers lost 5-4 at home to the Giants. LA is 92-51 but with Atlanta's win over the Nats, the Braves are now 88-54, just 3 1/2 games back of the Dodgers. Over in the AL, Houston and New York are both 92-50, a half-game ahead of LA. Taking the mound tonight will be Tyler Beede (3-9, 5.61 ERA) and Tony Gonsolin (2-1, 2.89), a pair of rookies. Beede's last win came back on July 14 when he won 8-3 at Milwaukee. His next start was OUTSTANDING (eight scoreless innings at home vs the Mets) but he settled for a no-decision in a 1-0 Giants win. However, he's 0-6 with a 6.81 ERA over his last eight starts (team is 0-8). Beede's been awful on the road all season, posting a 6.81 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and .297 BAA. Gonsolin's major-league debut was June 26 at Arizona and he allowed four ERs in four innings of an 8-2 loss. He made a relief appearance about a month later but he's been part of the rotation in August, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in four starts. LA is a more modest 2-2 in those starts but note that in his only two home starts this season, he's 2-0 with an 0.82 ERA, 0.64 WHIP and a .111 BAA! LA can't afford another slip-up against a team like the Giants, who are just 5-12 over their last 17 games to fall out of any realistic hopes in the NL's wild-card chase (8 1/2 games back with FOUR teams between them and the second wild card team / Giants would have to climb over FIVE teams!). The Dodgers own the most home wins of any team in MLB, going 55-19 while outscoring opponents 5.42-to-3.30 RPG. I noted Beede's road numbers (see above) and the rookie right-hander faces a Dodgers lineup which is 41-10 at home vs right-handed starters, averaging 5.8 RPG. Kershaw pitched just four innings last night (allowed three runs) but I expect the rookie to "step up" here vs the hated-Giants. Lay the 1 1/2 runs. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-19 | Tulsa v. San Jose State OVER 52.5 | Top | 34-16 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Tulsa/San Jose St Over at 9:00 ET. The Tulsa Golden Hurricane had a tough assignment in Week 1, traveling to East Lansing for a game with preseason No. 18 Michigan State. Tulsa was smothered by the MSU defense, gaining just 80 yards and eight FDs in the 28-7 loss. Tulsa has a much easier assignment this Saturday, as it visits San Jose State. These Spartans opened 2019 with a 35-18 home win over Northern Colorado, as QB Josh Love passed for 224 yards with two TDs. Tulsa actually held its own last week on the road against a ranked Michigan State team and the pointspread (Tulsa is about a TD favorite) reflects the team's better than expected showing against MSU. Tulsa is again matched up against a team nick-named the Spartans but San Jose St is NO Michigan St. QB Zach Smith is a Baylor transfer (he started 10 games for the Bears in (2016-17) and look for a breakout game here (he owns an 'elite arm'), vs a San Jose St defense that has allowed 36.6, 41.7 and 34.7 PPG the last three seasons. As for San Jose St, last week's win matched the team's win total from 2018 (1-11). The Spartans should be able to match Tulsa score-for-score, as Tulsa allowed 34.5 PPG in its six road games of 2018. Tulsa enters this game with a 13-game road losing skid and can only win by outscoring San Jose St. I'll stay away from the SU winner but will go O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-19 | LSU v. Texas +7 | Top | 45-38 | Push | 0 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Texas at 7:00 ET. 2019's Week 1 saw just one top-25 matchup, as No. 16 Auburn pulled out a late 27-21 win over No. 11 Oregon in Arlington, Tx last Saturday night. The victory moved Auburn to the No. 10 spot in the new AP poll, while Oregon dropped to No. 16.. The two marquee matchups of Week 2 are No. 1 Clemson putting its 16-game winning streak on the line at home vs No. 12 Texas A7M and No. 6 LSU visiting No. 9 Texas. No one really expects A&M to upset Clemson, so in effect, the LSU/Texas game holds more drama and the winner will firmly establish itself as a top-10 team. LSU unveiled a new spread offense in its opener against Georgia Southern and rolled up 472 yards in a 55-3 rout. Texas did not face much of a challenge in its season opener either, easing past Louisiana Tech in Austin, 45-14. LSU's senior QB Joe Burrow was 23-of-27 for 278 yards and five TDs last Saturday, as different players recorded at least one catch. Spreading the ball around is key to the team's new offensive system plus Burrow is trying to get the ball out quicker this season. So far, so good. He was not sacked in the opener. LSU always plays great defense and the out-manned Eagles were held to 98 total yards and just eight FDs. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger completed 28-of-38 passes for 276 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the opener but LSU's secondary is one of the best in the country. Texas ran for 153 yards last week (5.1 YPC) but doing that again vs LSU's defensive front is HIGHLY unlikely. A concern for Texas is the Longhorns allowing 413 total yards against La Tech, including 340 through the air. Ex-Saints aide Joe Brady had LSU's "new-look" passing game in mid-season form but should LSU really be favored hetr in Austin (and by about a TD!!)? The temperature in Austin likely will approach 100 degrees on Saturday and that opens the door for fatigue to play a role. Tom Herman has made quite a name for himself in his four years as a head coach in "big games." He is 10-6 SU as an underdog and a MONEY-MAKING 13-2-1 ATS. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-19 | BYU v. Tennessee -3 | Top | 29-26 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on Tennessee at 7:00 ET. Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano admitted he was "disgusted" following the eight-point loss, which is even a little deceptive given that the Volunteers scored a last-second TD. BYU comes to Knoxville off a NINTH straight "Holy War" loss to Utah. The Cougars fell 30-12,as three BYU turnovers led directly to three Utah scores. BYU enters 2019 playing its 10th consecutive season as an Independent. The Cougars bounced back from an 'ugly' 4-9 finish in 2017 (school's first losing season since 2004) to finish 7-6 in 2018, after a 49-18 rout of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl.Head coach Kalani Sitake enters his fourth season at BYU and the offense is led by sophomore QB Zach Wilson, who started the final seven games of 2018 (note: he was a perfect 18-for-18 for 307 yards with four TD passes in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). Wilson rushed for 43 yards vs Utah, while achieving career highs in passing attempts (33) and completions (21). However, he threw for a modest 208 yards plus had two interceptions returned for TDs. BYU ran for only 92 yards and gained only 14 FDs. Defensively, BYU allowed 262 yards on the ground (5.5 YPC). Technical trends surely don't favor the Vols, who are now 3-12 ATS over their last 15 home games. Meanwhile, BYU is 9-2 as a road dog since the beginning of 2016. However, I'm throwing out the tech trends here, as Tennessee had won 30 straight home games vs non-Power-5 conference schools prior to last week.QB Guarantano recorded the second 300-yard game of his career last Saturday finishing with 311 yards and a pair of TDs. Another postive was Tennessee committed just THREE penalties last week. It's just Week 2 but the Vols could be in a "Make or Break" seasonal mode in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-19 | Wyoming v. Texas State +7 | 23-14 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on Texas St at 7:00 ET. The Wyoming Cowboys pulled a Week 1 shocker, upsetting Missouri 37-31 in Laramie as 15-point home dog. QB Sean Chambers threw for just 92 yards on 6 of 16 passing but led the Cowboys in rushing with 120 yards and a TD. RB Xazavian Valladay added 118 yards on the ground and also score a TD. A worry has to be a defense which allowed Missouri 537 total yards and 28 FDs. Winning the TO 'battle' 3-0 was a HUGE key for Wyoming.The Texas State Bobcats were manhandled 41-7 at Texas A&M to open their season and the team's lone score came on a 27-yard TD pass with only 36 seconds left in the game (giving them a push/ATS win). Wyoming took full advantage of a rare home game (at 7,200 feet) against a bottom-rung SEC foe but the Cowboys hit the road this week in what sets up as a classic letdown spot. Texas State has a new head coach in Jake Spavital and 19 of 22 starters are back from the 2018 team. This is just the fourth meeting between the two schools and the home teams has won SU in each of the first three. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-19 | San Diego State v. UCLA -8 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 52 m | Show | |
My 7* play is on UCLA at 4:15 ET. The San Diego State Aztecs opened their season with a victory but a 6-0 home win over Weber St as a 12-point favorite was hardly inspiring. UCLA had a "revenge" game with Cincy to open its 2019 season but fell, 24-14. Chip Kelly's first season at UCLA was an unqualified disaster (3-9) and a loss here almost guarantees an 0-3 start to 2019, as Oklahoma visits the Rose Bowl next Saturday. SDSU gained just 238 yards at home vs an FCS team (granted a nationally-ranked one) and the Aztecs have NEVER beaten the Bruins. The schools first met back in 1922 and the Bruins lead the series 21-0-1. Kelly has 19 starters back and this is a game he can and NEEDS to win. I'm laying the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-07-19 | Vanderbilt v. Purdue -7 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 44 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Purdue at 12:00 ET. Vanderbilt had a tough season-opener on Aug 31, as No. 3 Georgia visited Nashville. The 'Dores fell behind 21-0 in the first 22 minutes against the Bulldogs and managed just a pair of Ryley Guay field FGs in a 30-6 loss. Yes, Vandy was out-gained 479-225 but the team's "D" was able to keep Georgia's potent offense from scoring a TD over the game's final 37 minutes. Purdue traveled to Reno, Nevada to open its season on Aug 31 (farthest the Boilermakers had traveled for s a season-opener since 2009 at Eugene, Oregon). Purdue led 24-7 at the half and extended its lead to 17 points again at 34-17, late in the third quarter. However, the Boilermakers never scored again and lost 34-31 (as 11-point road favorites). on a 56-yard FG as time expired by a walk-on freshman placekicker. The two schools will meet for the first time since 1942 when the Commodores travel to West Lafayette, Ind. on Saturday afternoon. Vandy QB Riley Neal finished 14-of-25 for just 85 yards against a Georgia defense expected to be one of the best in the nation. Senior running back Ke'Shawn Vaughn, who rushed for 1,244 yards and 12 TDs in 2018, had 74 yards on 15 carries. Obviously, Purdue's defense will be an easier test but while Vandy did 'hold' Georgia to 30 points, the defense did allow 481 yards. Purdue's senior QB Elijah Sindelar completed 34-of-52 passes for 423 yards and four TDs but also threw two second-half interceptions that helped key the Wolf Pack's comeback. All-American wide receiver Rondale Moore had 11 receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown but also fumbled a punt that set up a Nevada field goal. Jeff Brohm's Purdue team returned just three offensive starters but last Saturday's performance on the road shows that they’re capable of putting points on the board. NINE defensive starters return, so expect Purdue to have much better success here at home, against a questionable Vandy offense. Purdue let a game slip away that it rightfully should’ve won last Saturday and here at home, should "get it right" vs Vandy, a team which has lost its last SEVEN road openers when playing a Power-5 school. Jeff Brohm was seen as a rising star at Western Ky (30-10 record, while leading the Hilltoppers to three straight bowl berths) but so far, he's finding the Big Ten much tougher. The SEC is of course a 'monster' but Vandy is VERY beatable. Lay it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-06-19 | Marshall +12 v. Boise State | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* Friday Night Lights play is on Marshall at 9:00 ET. I referred to Boise St last week as the “Gonzaga of College Football." After all, the Broncos began to ascend to prominence on the gridiron in the late ‘90s, about the same time the Bulldogs began 'making noise' on the hardwood. Twenty years later, the Broncos and Bulldogs keep winning. The Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs Boston College was cancelled due to inclement weather) and the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the last 20 years. The Broncos opened their 2019 season with a trip to Tallahassee (moved from Jacksonville because of the hurricane situation) and after falling behind 31-13 by the late second quarter, staged a dramatic comeback.The BSU defense tightened (FSU never scored over the game's final 34 minutes and was held to just 68 yards in the second half), while freshman QB Hank Bachmeier, hailed as one of the best recruits in Boise State football history, gave every indication that he's "the real deal." Bachmeier threw for 407 yards (one TD / one INT) plus was greatly helped by a running game that ran 57 times (the second-most during Harsin's tenure as coach since 2014) for 214 yards. RB Robert Mahone had 142 yards (he ran for just 128 all last year and 115 in 2017) and two TDs. The Broncos are back home Friday night to host Marshall. Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd have been 'bowling' in FIVE of the last six seasons and have won EACH bowl contest! Marshall 'tuned up' last Saturday with a 56-17 romp over VMI, an FCS school. Marshall amassed 620 yards of total offense, while limiting VMI to 257. The Herd had a balanced attack of 340 yards passing and 280 rushing with 35 FDs.QB Isaiah Green (18-28 for 233 yards) threw a career-high four TD passes and the running game averaged 6.1 YPC. Marshall should NOT be overlooked, as the Herd are 8-2 ATS the last three seasons when playing as an underdog. As for Boise, that famed "blue carpet" has not produced the kind of results Boise St bettors would have liked. In fact, the Broncos check in at 16-35-1 the last 51 games as a home favorite. Take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-06-19 | Diamondbacks -113 v. Reds | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Arz D'backs at 7:10 ET. When the the Arizona Diamondbacks traded Zack Greinke at "the last second," it was assumed that the team had "given up" on the 2019 season. A 3-7 stretch from Aug 14-24 seemed to confirm that premise but all of a sudden, the D'backs have "come alive." Wednesday's 4-1 victory over San Diego completed a three-game sweep of San Diego and the D'backs open a seven-game road tripwith NINE wins in their last 10 contests. Arizona begins it trip with three-games this weekend in Cincinnati against the Reds.The 66-75 Reds are buried' in the NL wild card race (11 games back) but did Arizona a favor by winning its second straight contest on Thursday (4-3 in 11 innings) against the Phillies, to salvage a four-game split with wild-card hopeful Philadelphia. The 73-67 D-backs are now a half-game ahead of the Philllies, trailing the Cubs by 3 1/2 games in the 'battle' for the NL's second wild card spot. Taking the mound Friday night will be Robbie Ray (12-7, 3.97 ERA) and Tyler Mahle (2-10, 4.72 ERA). Ray missed 10 days with a back injury, but returned Aug 25 at Milwaukee to earn a 5-2 win (pitched a scoreless five innings). However, he struggled in his second start since this past Saturday at home vs the Dodgers. He allowed four runs on eight hits in five innings but was able to claim a win in Arizona's 6-5 victory. Ray is 7-1 in 10 starts since the start of July, with the D'backs winning EIGHT of the 10. Mahle made his first big-league start since July 19 last Sunday at St Louis. He was placed on the DL after that July 19 start. He returned Sunday (after making three minor league starts) with the team having gone 4-15 in his 19 previous starts this season and his minus-$1,038 moneyline mark was the third-worst among all starters. In particular, he was 0-8 with a 5.58 ERA and .300 BAA in 11 road starts, with the Reds going 0-11. Surprisingly, Mahle allowed just one ER on two hits in 6.1 innings on Sunday at St Louis. He left with a 3-1 lead but the bullpen gave up single runs in each of the last three innings and the Cardinals won 4-3. And so it goes for him...Reds are 4-16 in his 20 starts, giving him MLB's 3rd-worst moneyline mark (-$1,138) Mahle has been better here at home but the fact remains that he is in search of his first win since May 31, having gone 0-5 with a 5.32 ERA in his past nine starts (Reds are 1-8 in those starts). As noted above, Ray comes in pitching well since the start of July and he's fared better on the road than at Chase Field, limiting the opposition to a .228 BAA away from home. The Diamondbacks averaged 7.8 runs in Ray's five August starts and expect Arizona to make it 10 wins in its last 11 here against the Reds and the "not ready for primetime" Mahle. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-06-19 | Phillies v. Mets -149 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My 7* Weekly Wipeout is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies ended last weekend with a Sunday victory against the New York Mets and then extended their winning streak to three games with a pair of lopsided victories at Cincinnati Monday and Tuesday. However, the tables quickly turned, as the Reds bested the Phils 8-5 on Wednesday and then 4-3 (11 inn.) on Thursday afternoon, as Philly had to settle for a four-game split versus the Reds. The 72-67 Phillies are now FOUR games back of the second wild card spot in the NL and find the D'backs a half-game closer to the Cubs than they are. Philadelphia comes to Citi Field for a three-game series with the Mets, who after taking TWO of three at Washington, are 71-68 and tied with the Brewers. Both teams are just ONE game back of the Phillies but are FIVE back of the Cubs Zach Eflin (8-11, 4.33 ERA) will get the ball for Philly, opposed by the Mets' Steven Matz (9-8. 4.04 ERA). Eflin was banished to the bullpen after losing four successive starts in July, while posting a 12.64 ERA. However, he got another shot at the rotation with Jake Arrieta undergoing season-ending elbow surgery. Eflin turned in his best start in nearly three months this past Sunday night, allowing one run on three hits in seven innings of a no-decision against the Mets (Phils avoided a three-game sweep with a 5-2 win). Matz improved to 4-2 with a 2.73 ERA in nine starts since returning to the rotation right after the All Star break. Here's the deal with Matz in 2019. He's been awful on the road (6.08 ERA / 1.56 WHIP / .291 BAA) and very good at home (2.01 ERA / 1.06 WHIP / .224 BAA). The Phillies have been 'stuck in neutral' since the All Star break (just 25-24), while the Mets are 25-12 in their last 37 games, although just 4-8 in their last 12.That said, the Mets showed everyone something in Wednesday's 8-4 afternoon win at Washington, after they had lost the night before when they blew a SIX-run lead in the ninth inning! Mets take this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-05-19 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Month (AL) is on the Hou Astros at 8:10 ET. The Houston Astros are cruising toward another AL West title (lead by NINE games) but are in a 'dog fight' with the Yankees for the AL's No. 1 seed. The 90-50 Astros are 1 1/2 games back of the 92-49 Yankees as they get set to welcome the Seattle Mariners to Houston for a four-games series on Thursday night. The Mariners continue their road trip after managing a total of just TWO runs while dropping a two-game set at the Chicago Cubs to open the week. Seattle has lost SEVEN of nine and has scored three or fewer runs in SIX of its last eight games. Remember how Seattle opened the 2019 at 13-2. If you don't, you are NOT alone. Taking the mound tonight will be Marco Gonzales (14-11, 4.30 ERA) and Wade Miley (13-4, 3.06 ERA). Gonzales won 13 games in 29 starts in 2018 (his first as a full-time starter) and makes his 30th start in this one with 14 victories. However, he saw a stretch of four straight starts allowing three runs or less come to an end when he gave up six runs (five earned) on seven hits and two walks over 5.2 innings in a 6-3 loss at Texas on Friday. Miley is part of a Houston starting rotation which features Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole and Zack Greinke but he's been the Astros' biggest money-maker. The Astros have won of his 28 starts, giving him a moneyline record of plus-$955 (8th-best in MLB). Gonzlaes has pitched well for a team which collapsed after that 13-2 start (Seattle is just 45-80, .360 since) but he's up against it here. The lefty faces a Houston lineup that has gone 29-9 against left-handed starters in 2019, including 17-3 at home. More trouble comes in the fact that he's 0-4 with a 7.50 ERA over six career appearances (five starts / teams are 0-5) against the Astros. Miley is tied for third in the AL in ERA and enters this contest having allowed three ERs or less in each of his last 12 outings! Miley is 3-1 (3.40 ERA) in seven career starts against Seattle (teams are 6-1) and this year's Seattle team is 16-30 against lefties, including a woeful 3-12 in road night games. Lay the 1 1/2 runs! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-04-19 | Twins v. Red Sox -132 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. The Minnesota Twins held an 11 1/2 game lead in the AL Central in early June but the Indians caught and passed them by July 24th. However, the Twins are again pulling away in the AL Central. Surging Minnesota has won NINE of 10 to open a 6 1/2-game over the Indians, losers of four of their last five. Minnesota had built a six-run lead last night but had to hold on for a 6-5 victory last night at Fenway, keeping the Red Sox 5 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot in the AL. The three-game series continues tonight with Jose Berríos (11-7, 3.57 ERA) taking on Eduardo Rodriguez (16-5, 3.97 ERA). Many consider Berrios to be Minnesota's ace but he just earned his first victory in nearly a month last Thursday with a quality start at the Chicago White Sox, striking out eight and giving up three runs seven hits over six innings in a 10-5 win. That outing ended an awful four-start stretch from Aug 6-23 in which he allowed 20 ERs on 32 hits (including six HRs over 21.1 innings (Berrios went 0-2 with an 8.44 ERA and the Twins lost three of the four). With Sale and Price hurt (both have been HUGE underachievers in 2019, as well), Rodriguez has been a staff mainstay. Rodriguez labored at Colorado last Wednesday but won his third straight start despite lasting only five innings and allowing three runs on nine hits over five innings (Boston won 7-4). Rodriguez has been Boston's biggest money-maker for the SECOND straight year. He was 19-4 in team starts in 2018 (+$1,387) and here in 2019, his team record is 21-7 (+$1,328), which is the second-best mark among starters. The defending champs are clearly 'on the ropes,' 5 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot with just 22 games remaining. Boston has two more games with Minnesota here and then hosts the Yankees for four games at Fenway Fri-Sun (doubleheader set for Sat). The Red Sox almost have to win FOUR of those six to have any chance of staying in the wild card chase. Yes, Boston is only 34-35 at home but the Red Sox are averaging 5.93 RPG at Fenway. NEEDING a win, it's best to have your biggest "money-maker" on the mound. That's the case here for Boston. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-04-19 | Mets v. Nationals -119 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 2 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the Was Nationals at 1:05 ET. The Mets put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot. The Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span . However, after last night's almost unbelievable 11-10 loss, the Mets are just 9-12 since Aug 11 (3-8 their last 11), leaving them FIVE games back of the NL's second wild card spot (THREE teams are between them and the Cubs). I'm sure most have heard about Tuesday's Mets/Nats game. For those who haven't, here's what STATS reported. Washington is the first team to allow five or more runs in the top of the ninth and get even more in the bottom of the inning for a walk-off win since the Red Sox back on June 18, 1962, against the Washington Senators. Mets manager Mickey Callaway lifted reliever Seth Lugo after he pitched a perfect eighth inning. Lugo routinely gets six outs per outing, but Callaway thought the lead was safe enough to go deeper into the bullpen. OOOPS! The Washington Nationals own MLB's best record since the team sat 19-31 after 50 games. Washington managed just three hits and no runs through the first eight innings of its series opening 7-3 Labor Day loss against the visiting NY Mets but rebounded with 11 runs on 15 hits last night. The rubber match of the three-game series goes Wednesday afternoon with Zack Wheeler (9-7, 4.41 ERA) taking on Anibal Sanchez (8-6, 3.80 ERA). Wheeler settled for a third straight no-decision on Friday despite allowing only one over six innings at Philadelphia (Mets won 11-5). Wheeler is well thought of but he remains nothing more than a .500 pitcher. The 29-year-old is 0-2 with a 7.94 ERA in four starts against the Nationals this season (team is 1-3) and enters this contest 4-10 with a 5.17 ERA in 17 career starts against Washington (Mets are 6-11). Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he signed a two-year deal in the off-season with Washington. Sanchez opened 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA through nine starts (team was 3-6). He suffered a left hamstring strain in May that cost him 10 days on the injured list and he missed one start. However, he's returned to the rotation to help fuel Washington's recent surge. He's unbeaten in his last 16 starts, going 8-0 (3.21 ERA) with the Nats going 11-5. Sanchez has allowed three ERs or less in 13 of those 16 starts. Sanchez had a rare poor start on Aug 17 but has bounced back strong in his last two, allowing just four hits and three ERs over 13.1 innings (2.03 ERA). One wonders just how the slumping Mets can regroup so quickly after last night's crushing loss. As for the Nats, they are 59-28 (.678) since that 19-31 start and will enter this contest having won 20 of their last 26 games. Expect Washington to ride the positive 'mojo' of that seven-run ninth inning into Wednesday afternoon's series finale against the visiting Mets, as Sanchez stays unbeaten through 17 starts. The Nats win again and drive another 'stake' into New York's ' playoff heart.' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-03-19 | Mets v. Nationals -129 | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Division Dominator (NL East) is on the Was Nationals at 7:05 ET. Washington Nationals own MLB's best record since the team sat 19-31 after 50 games. However, Washington managed just three hits and no runs through the first eight innings of its series opening 7-3 Labor Day loss against the visiting NY Mets. Washington's 7-3 loss ended the team's four-game winning streak in which the Nats had scored 31 times (7.75 RPG). For the Mets, they won for just the THIRD time in 10 contests and find themselves tied with the 70-67 Brewers, a half-game back of Arizona, 1 1/2 games back of Philadelphia and most importantly, FOUR games back of the Cubs (owners of the NL's second wild card spot). The middle game of this three-games series tonight will feature a pitching matchup of Jacob deGrom (8-8, 2.66 ERA) and Max Scherzer (9-5, 2.46 ERA). Jacob deGrom won last year's NL Cy young award, while Max Scherzer was the 2016 and 2017 Cy Young winner in the NL. DeGrom won last year's award despite going just 10-9 (1.70 ERA / 0.91 WHIP / .196 BAA). It's been a second straight year of excellent pitching numbers for deGrom (1.02 WHIP and .214 BAA) but again, he's just 8-8 and more importantly, the Mets are 10-17 in his starts, as his moneyline mark of minus-$1,829 is the SECOND-worst among all starters in 2019. DeGrom saw his nine-game unbeaten streak end this past Thursday when he allowed four runs on five hits over seven innings of a 4-1 loss to the Chicago Cubs. That said, while deGrom may have been unbeaten in that nine-game stretch (from July 5-Aug 23) with a 1.22 ERA, the Mets were just 5-4 in that span. Scherzer's had similar problems to deGrom in 2019, pitching well but lacking run support. Scherzer originally hit the IL on July 13 before returning to pitch against the Rockies on July 25, allowing three runs in five innings and throwing a season-low 86 pitches. Four days later, Scherzer again landed on the IL again, where he remained until returning on August 22. He was 9-5 with a 2.41 ERA through 20 starts at that time, with 189 strikeouts in 134.1 innings. However, the Nats had gone 0-5 in his six no-decisions, leaving him 9-11 in team starts, minus-$1,089 against the moneyline. Scherzer has been limited in his first two starts after missing almost a month with a back injury, allowing three ERs on 10 hits over 8.1 innings (3.24 ERA) in two no-decisions The good news for Scherzer was that the Nats won BOTH of those contests. So what we have here is two of MLB's best pitchers who have pitched in "hard-luck" for most of the season (for deGrom, it's been two straight years). However, the edge goes to the Nats, who are 58-28 (.674) since May 24. In contrast, we have the Mets. They put together one of the hottest streaks in team history from July 25-Aug 10, winning 15 of 16 games to pull within a half-game of a wild-card spot on. The Mets gained EIGHT games in the wild-card race during that span. However, the Mets are just 9-11 since Aug 11 (3-7 their last 10) and I'll back Scherzer and the Nats in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-03-19 | Phillies -102 v. Reds | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Phillies at 6:40 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies are running out of time in the wild card race. The Phiilies has been pretty much 'caught in neutral' since the All Star break, as after Monday's 7-1 series-opening triumph over the Reds, the team is 24-22 since the break. Philly's71-65 record has them 2 1/2 games back of the Cubs for the NL's second wild card spot with Arizona lurking one game behind them plus the Brewers and Mets sitting 1 1/2 games back of the Phils. Not surprisingly, Cincinnati did little offensively in Monday's 7-1 setback, after playing back-to-back doubleheaders Saturday and Sunday in St Louis. As September opens, the 64-74 Reds are pretty much regulated to playing "spoiler," as they are in fourth-place in the division, 13 1/2 games back of the Cardinals and also sit 10 games back of the NL's second wild-card spot. The second contest of the four-game series goes tonight, as Vince Velasquez (6-7, 4.86 ERA) squares off against Lucas Sims (2-1, 4.99 ERA). Velasquez gave up two runs on five hits in five innings this past Wednesday against the visiting Pirates and earned the win in the 12-3 victory. In his previous start on Aug 23, the Miami Marlins chased him after just 2.1 innings but he escaped with a no-decision in a 19-11 loss. However, that Aug 23 start was an outlier for Velasquez as of late, as he has allowed three ERs or less in SIX of his last seven starts. Velasquez owns a 3.27 ERA in those six starts, with the Phillies going 4-2. Velasquez has made just one career starts vs Cincy, having faced the Reds twice in relief this season, throwing 2.1 scoreless innings. Alex Wood was scratched Monday for this start, due to a re-occurrence of his back issue. The start will instead go to Sims. It will be his 18th appearance of 2019 but only his third start. His last start came back on July 24th and in his two starts of 2019, he's pitched 12 innings while allowing nine ERs (6.75 ERA). Sims was a former first-round pick but this will be a tough spot for him, as he threw 36 pitches in relief this past Saturday in St Louis. The Reds have lost FIVE of six and this contest marks the team's SIXTH game in the last four days! This is a HUGE series for the Phillies, as they will NEED to take at least THREE of four in Cincy vs the Reds (a sweep would be more like it), Philadelphia heads to New York for a three-game weekend series against the Mets, then returns home for six games against Atlanta (four) and Boston (two). After that, it's 11-game road trip to Atlanta, Cleveland and Washington. Not sure the Phils can survive that stretch but for tonight, I'm "all over them." Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-01-19 | Padres v. Giants -105 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the SF Giants at 4:05 ET. The San Francisco Giants surprised many by winning SIX of seven entering the All Star break and then returning from the break to go 8-1. That 14-2 run allowed the Giants to climb into the National League wild card race. The Giants welcomed the Padres to San Francisco for a four-game series on Thursday and have lost TWO of the first three. The Padres took Thursday's game 5-3, lost 8-3 on Friday to Bumgarner but then rebounded to win 4-1 last night. The Giants have now lost EIGHT of 11 and at 66-69, have fallen SEVEN games back of the NL's second wild card spot. The Padres had lost SIX of eight heading into the series and after winning two of the first three in this series, are 63-72 and 10 games back of that final wild card spot. San Diego's postseason chances are on 'life support' and the Giants' chances aren't much better. The pitching matchup for Sunday's final will be Eric Lauer (7-8, 4.48 ERA) and Jeff Samardzija (9-10, 3.38 ERA). Lauer earned a 4-3 win on Monday after giving up three runs on six hits over six innings at home against the LA Dodgers. That's in keeping with the way this 24-year-old has performed all season. He owns a 3.22 ERA in 13 home games (12 starts) but in 12 starts away from Petco Park, his ERA balloons to 5.93. Samardzija is switching rotation spots with Tyler Beede, who will get the nod in Monday’s series opener against St. Louis. Samardzija received a no-decision Tuesday, after holding Arizona to one run on three hits over five innings (D'bcks won, 3-2). It was a hard-luck month for the 34-year-old vet, as went just 1-2 (Giants were 2-3) in five August starts, despite posting a 1.84 ERA. Good news for San Fran fans is that Samardzija is 9-3 with a 3.28 ERA in 20 career games (18 starts) vs San Diego. The nine wins are the most for Samardzija against one team in his career. Lauer struggled all season on the road and note that while he went 4-1 in August, his ERA was 4.43. Remember, Samardzija's August ERA was 1.84 and going back to July, it was 2.09 in six starts, with the Giants rewarding him by winning FIVE of the six. I noted Samardzija's good career numbers already but will add here that he owns 1.42 ERA in three outings this season vs San Diego in 2019. The Giants won TWO of the three and one can't blame Samardzija for the loss, as he went five innings and allowed just a single unearned run. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-01-19 | Reds v. Cardinals -151 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Pitch-Perfect Play is on the StL Cardinals at 1:05 ET. The St Louis Cardinals entered the All Star break at 44-44, leaving them 3 1/2 games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. However, the Cards would go 12-3 to open the second half. They regained a share of first place on July 25 and stayed there until Aug 2, when a five-game losing streak on a West Coast swing (Aug 3-7) saw them fall four games back on Aug 8. However, the Cards welcomed the Reds to St Louis this weekend for a four-game series, having won 15 their last 19 contests. The Reds came to town after taking three of four in Miami but note that the Marlins are the NL's worst team. The Reds entered the series at 63-70 Reds and at best, can play "spoiler," the rest of the way. Friday's game was rained out, meaning the teams would play back-to-back doubleheaders Saturday and Sunday. St Louis cruised to a 10-6 triumph in Saturday's first game and then rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to steal the nightcap 3-2. The 75-59 Cards are now 2 1/2 games up on the Cubs for the division lead, while the Reds are 63-72 and as noted above, 'done' for the month of September. It's another doubleheader today, with Tyler Mahle (2-10, 4.93 ERA) and Miles Mikolas (8-13, 4.32 ERA) squaring off in Game 1. Mahle will be making his first big-league since July 19 when he gave up four runs in 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals (Reds lost, 12-11). He was placed on the injured list after that outing and with good reason/ The team is 4-15 in his 19 starst this season and his minus-$1,038 moneyline mark is the third-worst among all starters. in particular, he's 0-8 with a 5.58 ERA and .300 BAA in 11 starts, with the Reds going 0-11 (that's a perfect 100% "go-against). Mikolas won for the first time in six starts this past Tuesday at Milwaukee, allowing just one run in six innings and striking out a season-high 10 in a 6-3 win. Mikolas was an All-Star selection last season, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA (Cards were 24-8 in his 32 starts, giving him an outstanding plus-$1,418 moneyline mark). However, the Cards are just 14-13-10 in his 2019 starts (minus-$212). Then again, Mikolas' woes have come away from Busch Stadium. The second-year pitcher owns an 'ugly' 6.11 ERA in 14 road starts (as well as a poor 1.46 WHIP and .308 BAA) but in 13 home starts, his ERA is 2.80, his WHIP is 1.04 and opponents are batting a more modest .244 against him. Mahle is back in the majors after making three minor league starts but why should his 'luck' change (especially on the road)? Sweeping back-to-back doubleheaders in no easy chore but this Game 1 sure seems "ripe for the taking." As for Mikolas, his home numbers are outstanding and while 2019 has NOT gone like 2018, this makes his 28th start, the MOST of any St Louis pitcher. Pitching at home, Mikolas could become important to the Cards come October. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-31-19 | Dodgers -148 v. Diamondbacks | 5-6 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 60 m | Show | |
My 7* Weekend Wipeout is on the LA Dodgers at 8:10 ET. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 'light years' behind the Dodgers in the NL West (18 games back) but after taking the opener of a four-game series with LA 11-5 on Thursday, the D'backs eked out a 5-4 win last night, giving them a FIVE-game winning streak. The team's recent surge has pushed Arizona three games over .500 (69-66) for the first time since mid-June and within 4 1/2 games of the second wild-card spot in the NL. As noted, the Dodgers' lead in the division is safe plus LA leads Atlanta by 5 1/2 games for the NL's best record. However, LA's back-to-back losses leave them at 88-49, a half-game back of the Astros and Yankees (both 88-48), for MLB's best overall record (to the winner goes homefield advantage throughout the entire postseason). Two lefties square off tonight at Chase Field, Clayton Kershaw (13-3, 2.76 ERA) and Robbie Ray (11-7, 3.86 ERA). Kershaw saw his seven-start unbeaten streak he was 6-0 with a 1.84 ERA and LA was 7-0) come to end last Sunday against the New York Yankees. He gave up three runs (on solo HRs) over seven innings but struck out 12 (a season-high). Kershaw owns a 2.78 ERA in 33 career starts vs Arizona (he's 17-9 but the team a more modest 19-14). Ray owns a modest record on the season but he has come on as of late. The D'backs were just 8-10 in his first 18 starts but they 7-2 (he owns a 3.35 ERA) over his last nine (he is 6-1). Ray returned from a back injury (hadn't pitched since Aug 14) with five scoreless innings while allowing just three hits and recording six strikeouts in a 5-2 win at Milwaukee on Sunday. Ray is 7-6 (3.17 ERA) in 20 career starts vs LA (teams are 11-9). However, Ray is 0-2 with a 4.07 ERA over three starts vs LA in 2019 and he's in the WRONG place at the WRONG time, here. Kershaw is coming off allowing three HRs last Sunday and the Dodgers are off back-to-back losses, while 'fighting' the Astros and Yanks for MLB's best record (important goal). After losing the first two of this four-game set (and with rookie Dustin May scheduled for Sunday's finale), LA needs its ace to "step up!" That's my bet. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-31-19 | Oregon v. Auburn OVER 55.5 | Top | 21-27 | Loss | -109 | 60 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Oregon/Auburn Over at 7:30 ET. Every school ranked in the AP's preseason poll will play in Week 1 (note: No. 8 Florida opened its season last Saturday vs Miami.) However, there is just ONE Week 1 contest which features a game between two ranked opponents and that's No. 11 Oregon taking on No. 16 Auburn in Arlington, Texas. These schools have met just ONCE before but it was a memorable one. Led by Heisman winner Cam Newton, the Tigers defeated the Ducks 22-19 on Jan. 10, 2011 in the 2010 BCS national championship game, winning on a 19-yard FG as time expired. The Oregon Ducks are coming off a 9-4 season in 2018 season, which included a 7-6 Redbox Bowl win over Michigan State. QB Justin Herbert decided to NOT enter the 2019 draft (many thought he's be a top-5 pick) and is expected to have a HUGE year. His 2018 season was pretty good, as he threw for 3,151 yards with 29 TDs and just eight INTs. Leading receiver Dillon Mitchell (75 catches / 1184 yards / 10 TDs) is gone but Jaylon Redd (38 catches) is expected to fill his role for this season. Oregon also brought in Juwan Johnson, a graduate transfer from Penn State (32 receptions last season) plus Cristobal also recruited four very highly touted freshman receivers, led by Mycah Pittman. CJ Verdell (1,018 yards / 10 TDs) and Travis Dye 739 yards / 4 TDs) give the Oregon offense great balance.The defense returns seven starters, including LB Troy Dye who was far and away the Ducks' leading tackler (109). Oregon also landed landing #1 overall prospect DE Kayvon Thibodeaux. While the Ducks will feature a senior QB in Herbert, Auburn will start a freshman quarterback (Bo Nix) for the first time since 1946. However, he owns "good genes," as his father Patrick led Auburn to an 11-0 season in 1993. Nix is expected to be a dual-threat but Auburn also boasts one of the better RB tandems in the SEC, as JaTarvious Whitlow and Kam Martin combined for 1,245 yards last season. The Tigers' top-two pass catchers from last season, Darius Slayton (NYG) and Ryan Davis (Pats), are off to the NFL, so expect Seth Williams, who led the SEC in yards per reception at 20.5, to emerge as Nix's top option. The defense returns seven starters and note that Auburn's defense is one of four units (along with No. 1 Clemson, No. 2 Alabama and No. 12 Washington) to finish in the top-15 in scoring defense in each of the last three seasons! "The hype machine" is on 'high' in Eugene but let's remember that the Ducks were just 5-4 in a watered-down Pac-12 in 2018. No, this isn't a bowl game but it is a major neutral-site, intersectional showdown (Pac-12/SEC ), so the Pac-12's sad-sack 3-19 ATS mark the last three bowl seasons is noteworthy. Head coach Gus Malzahn is back calling the plays for Auburn and all reports say Nix has all the tools to make Tigers 'run on all cylinders.' Expect Auburn to score plenty here Oregon and while the Auburn D is always tough, Herbert is excellent and he has plenty of 'weapons.' Let's leave it here. This is Oregon's first neutral-site opening game since 2011, when the Ducks lost to another SEC school (LSU), 40-27. Sounds about right. I'm Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-31-19 | Mets v. Phillies +108 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Phi Phillies at 4:05 ET. The New York Mets ended a six-game losing streak with Friday's 11-5 win in Philly, scoring all 11 runs in the final three innings. With the victory, New York remained FIVE games behind the Chicago Cubs in the race for the second NL wild card. The Phillies have alternated off losses and wins in their last seven game, which has pretty much been the case for them the last six or seven weeks (Philly is 22-21 since returning from the All Star break). Philadelphia sits 1 1/2 games ahead of the Mets and 3 1/2 behind the Cubs. It's a matchup of lefties late Saturday afternoon, as Steven Matz (8-8, 4.06 ERA) takes on Jason Vargas (6-6, 4.09 ERA). Matz was sent to the bullpen at the the beginning of July (made two relief appearances) but returned to the rotation after the All Star break. He's allowed two ERs or less in SEVEN of his eight post-break starts. He was 6-0 in 10 home starts (Mets were 8-2), with a 2.07 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .235 BAA, before suffering a hard-luck 2-1 home loss this past Sunday against Atlanta. He's back on the mound here but NOT at home and that's been an issue all season. He's 2-7 in 13 road starts (team is 4-9), posting a 6.28 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .209 BAA. It's also not a good sign that Matz is 1-4 with a 6.15 ERA in nine appearances (eight starts / team is 2-6) in his career against the Phillies. Philly hands the ball to Vargas, who was a trade-deadline acquisition from the Mets. Vargas was with the Mets for only the first FOUR games of their 15-1 surge from July 25 through August 10 that allowed them to move from tied for 13th in the NL to within a half-game of the second wild-card spot. He is the final guaranteed season of his contract and is still looking for his first win since joining the Phillies. He has allowed two runs in THREE of his five starts with Philadelphia but has yet to compete seven innings (team is 2-3 and Vargas owns a 4.34 ERA with the Phillies). Vargas is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in three career appearances (two starts) against the Mets, who are one of just two teams, along with the Milwaukee Brewers, he's never beaten. Then again, that's hardly much of a sample size. Let me remind you here that Matz owns 'ugly' numbers on the road in 2019 (see above), as well as a poor record vs Philly, in a much bigger sample size. Let's also remember that the Mets seemed headed for a SEVENTH straight loss, before last night's late-inning 'explosion.' Hard to see that happening again, as New York has scored a total of just | |||||||
08-31-19 | Virginia Tech -4 v. Boston College | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* Conference Game of the Month (ACC) is on Va Tech at 4:00 ET. Florida State's 5-7 finish in 2018 was the school's worst since 1975 and its sub-500 season ended FSU's remarkable streak of 36 straight bowl appearances. That over-shadowed what happened in Blacksburg. Yes, Va Tech's 6-6 regular season record extended the school's bowl streak to 26 in a row (now the longest active streak) but the Hokies' 35-31 loss to Cincinnati in the Military Bowl gave the school its first losing season since 1992. Tech opened 4-2 but a four-game losing streak meant the Hokies needed to win their last two regular season games to make a bowl (see above for that result). Tech opens 2019 with a conference game on the road, as the Hokies travel to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College. The Eagles beat Va Tech in Blacksburg 31-21 on Nov 2, giving them a 7-2 record and a top-25 ranking. However, BC lost its final three regular season games, before the school's bowl game against Boise St was cut short after one quarter by severe weather. BC has won exactly SEVEN games in FIVE of head coach Steve Addazio's six seasons, earning a bowl bid each time. Ryan Willis took over early last season at QB and threw for 2,716 yards and 24 TDs with nine interceptions in 12 games. The senior is primed for a big year. WRs Damon Hazelton (51 catches / 802 yards / 8 TDs) and Tre Turner (26 catches / 535 yards / 4 TDs) will be his top targets, while junior TE Dalton Keene (28 catches) could have a breakout season. The rushing game will be RB by committee but Fuente had outstanding offenses at Memphis and this year's Va Tech team has all of the makings of a dynamic offense. Defensive Coordinator Bud Foster has been at Va Tech 'forever,' and after a succession of top-10 defenses for more than two decades, it's hard to NOT see a bounce-back from Tech's defense in 2019 (Tech allowed 31 PPG and almost 440 YPG in 2018). Note: 10 of 11 starters are back. Junior RB Dillon missed roughly a month last year due to an ankle injury but he still finished with 1,108 yards and 10 TDs (he gained 1,589 yards with 14 TDs as a freshman). Junior QB Anthony Brown (2,121 passing yards, / 20 TDs) is back and he he'll and operate behind a solid Boston College OL. The BC defense returns just three starters from a unit which allowed 25.7 PPG and just over 400 YPG. Boston College will undoubtedly be looking up at Clemson in the ACC Atlantic Division and probably Syracuse, as well. That means the Eagles will be fighting with FSU (greatly improved in 2019) and NC St for a third-place finish and a bowl berth. Meanwhile, the ACC's Coastal Division is wide-open and Va Tech is as good a pick as any to win it. The Hokies had beaten the Eagles in three straight before last year's game, winning by an average of 26 points. However, after the Hokies led 14-7 at the half last season, BC scored 24 unanswered points in an eventual 31-21 victory. Va Tech has won 23-10 and 26-10 in in last two visits to BC. That sounds about right, here. Revenge works! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State -5.5 | Top | 36-31 | Loss | -108 | 97 h 6 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* August Game of the Month is on Florida St at 7:00 ET (note: game has been moved from Jacksonville to Tallahassee). The Boise St Broncos went 10-3 in 2018 (bowl game vs BC was cancelled due to inclement weather) but the Broncos reached double digits in wins for the 16th time in the L20 years. The beat should go on at Boise this season, as the Broncos look to secure their 18th straight bowl berth. The Broncos open their 2019 season with a trip to Tallahassee(game moved from Jacksonville due to weather issues) where they will take on the Florida State Seminoles. Willie Taggart's 1st season in Tallahassee was an unqualified 'disaster,' as FSU's 5-7 finish was the school's worst s/1975. More notably, its bowl streak of 36 straight appearances came to an end. The Seminoles losing record was no fluke, as FSU lost FIVE games by 21 points or more, including a 59-10 loss to Clemson. There is little doubt that Boise will again be "bowl-bound," as unlike in 2018 when the Broncos faced FOUR ranked teams, they may not face ANY in 2019. However, there are a ton of questions on the offensive side of the ball for Boise heading into 2019. 4-year starter Brett Rypien has finally graduated and left as the MWC’s all-time leading passer with 13,578 yards. The successor remained up in the air into fall camp, as five candidates who had attempted just 10 passes between them were competing in the spring. Hank Bachmeier has been hailed as one of the best recruits in Boise State history and just recently, head coach Bryan Harsin said Bachmeier will be the Broncos’ starting QB for their 2019 season opener. “Hank earned it,” Harsin said. “It wasn’t given to him. ... He made throws, he completed passes, he did things in the pocket and he made decisions out there that we want to see. And whether a freshman, senior, doesn’t matter, those are the things that we’re looking for at that position.” That said, Boise St lost its top-2 WRs from 2018 and early NFL draftee RB Alex Mattison (1,415 YR, 17 TDs) leaves a 'hole' in the backfield. No returning RB gained as much as 200 yards in 2018 (Harsin has talked about a "RB by committee"option) so Boise’s string of 10 straight years with a 1000-yard rusher might come to end. FSU had QB questions coming into this season as well, but head coach Willie Taggart made the announcement last Sunday that James Blackman has won the starting job. Blackman beat out Wisconsin graduate transfer Alex Hornibrook and Louisville transfer Jordan Travis. Blackman has started 13 games, including 12 as a true freshman in 2017. He has thrown for 2,740 yards, 24 TDs & 12 INTs at FSU. In his only 2018 start, Blackman threw for 421 yards, four TDs and one interception in a 47-28 road loss to NC State. Taggert’s offense will have a different look this year with new O.C. Kendall Briles running the show. Briles’ features a fast-paced but simplified attack and expect Blackman to utilize an up-tempo attack, looking to keep the Broncos defense on its heels. Speaking of defense, EIGHT of FSU's top-10 tacklers are back and the unit has pledged to but last season's collapse (allowed 42.0 PPG its last five) in "the rear-view mirror." I'm predicting a big "bounce-back" season for Taggert and FSU, as the Seminoles are loaded and athletic across the board. I expect the Boise D to be "on its heels," struggling in the heat and humidity of a "Hot August Night" in Florida (something the boys from Idaho can't simulate in practice). Yes, QB Hank Bachmeier is highly-touted but expect the true freshman to be in for a 'LONG' night against a highly-motivated and athletic FSU defense. I'm calling a two-TD 'cover' from FSU! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-31-19 | Ole Miss +5 v. Memphis | 10-15 | Push | 0 | 49 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Ole Miss at 12:00 ET. Memphis football looked 'dead in the water' from 2009-13, going 12-50 (.194) in that five-year span. However, in Justin Fuente's third season at Memphis (2014), the Tigers would go 10-3, including a thrilling 55-48 (2 OT) victory over BYU in the Miami Beach Bowl. Fuente led the Tigers to a bowl berth again in 2015 but left to take the Va Tech job. Mike Norvell took over in 2016 and he's led the Tigers to three straight bowls but Memphis has lost each one. The Tigers are off a so-so 8-6 season and return 14 starters. The Ole Miss Rebels were just 5-7 last year and have won SIX or less games in each of the last three years, making the school's last bowl appearance back in 2015. That Sugar-Bowl winning team finished 10th in the final AP poll with a 10-3 record. How quickly, things have fallen apart in Oxford. Matt Luke became the interim head coach at Ole Miss after Hugh Freeze was forced to resign back in June of 2017. After a late season push allowed Ole Miss to finish 6–6, the interim tag on November 26, 2017 and he became 37th head football coach in school history. However, last year's 5-7 record (1-7 in the SEC) has put some pressure on Luke. Luke sure didn't "stand pat," as he hired two successful former head coaches as his offensive and defensive coordinators. Rich Rodriguez (OC) and Mike MacIntyre (DC) are his new coordinators. When last seen, Rich-Rod’s spread option saw Arizona QB Khalil Tate create more than a few headlines and there was some Heisman-talk. Reports are that redshirt freshman Matt Corral (239 yards, 2 TDs) will thrive as Rich-Rod's QB and senior RB Scottie Phillips will get lots of work after he ran for 928 yards in his first season with the Rebels (JC transfer), While Rich-Rod's transition should go smoothly, Mike MacIntyre will have his hands full with the Rebels' defense. Ole Miss ranked 116th against the run and 111th against the pass in 2018. The Rebels are switching from a 4-3 to a 3-4 on defense and there is nowhere to go but up! Norvell's Tigers have averaged 42.9, 45.5 and 38.8 PPG in his three seasons at Memphis and theTigers return QB Brady White (3,296 yards / 26-9 ratio). Leading rusher Darrell Henderson (1,909 yards, 22 TDs) and Tony Pollard (552, 6 TDs both decided to leave for the NFL but Patrick Taylor Jr. stuck around for his senior season. He ran for 1,122 yards, and 16 TDs. Memphis also returns three of its top-four receivers, including the outstanding Damonte Coxie, who caught 72 balls (1,174 yards and 7 TDs). The offense will again be prolific but the defense coughed up various big leads in 2018, finishing 105th in pass ranking and 76th in rush ranking (31.9 PPG). OK, Ole Miss' defense stunk in 2018 but expect MacIntyre to make a difference. Ole Miss returns 11 of their 12 top-tacklers plus a probable top CB in Jaylon Jones, who missed 11 games due to a torn ACL. Ole Miss could really use a confidence boosting victory to set the tone for this season and the Rebels will likely have lots of support at the Liberty Bowl, which is just an hour or so from Oxford. Speaking of 'leaky' defenses, the Memphis D gave up 93 points in its losses in the AAC championship game loss (UCF) and the Birmingham Bowl loss (Wake Forest). Memphis also lost "big-time" at Missouri last season (an equally bad SEC defensive team, ala Ole Miss), 65-33! I'm taking the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-30-19 | Padres v. Giants -125 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
My 9* "Best Bet" Situational Stunner is on the SF Giants at 10:15 ET. The San Francisco Giants surprised many by winning SIX of seven entering the All Star break and then returning from the break to go 8-1. That 14-2 run allowed the Giants to climb into the National League wild card race. However, the Giants have lost SEVEN of their last nine after losing a 5-3 decision in Thursday's opener of a four-game home series with the Padres, dropping San Francisco SEVEN games back of the Chicago Cubs for the second wild-card spot. The Padres had lost six of their previous eight contests and the win leaves them no better than 62-71 on the season, 10 games back of the NL's second wild card spot. The pitching matchup for tonight's second contest of the series will feature Dinelson Lamet (2-2, 4.30 ERA) and Madison Bumgarner (8-8, 3.71 ERA). Lamet made 21 starts for the Padres in 2018, going 7-8 with a 4.57 ERA. He's made just nine starts here in 2019 (all since July 4th) and while he takes the mound tonight riding a seven-start unbeaten streak, he's just 2-2 with a 4.30 ERA on the season (Padres are 3-6 in his starts). Bumgarner gets the nod for the Giants and after a 1-4 (4.30 ERA) start through six outings (team was just 1-5), the three-time World Series champ has seen the Giants go 16-6 in his last 22 starts, as he allowed three ERs or less, 17 times. The Giants postseason hopes may be all but 'dead,' but Bumgarner has been a steady money-maker since the start of May. Let me close by noting that while he's struggled on the road (4.68 ERA / 1.32 WHIP / .272 BAA), he's been VERY good here at Oracle Park (2.95 ERA / 0.93 WHIP / .215 BAA). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-29-19 | Utah -6.5 v. BYU | Top | 30-12 | Win | 100 | 36 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Utah at 10:15 ET. You know it's a bitter rivalry when the schools involved can't even agree on when the first game was played. Utah claims a lead of 61–34–4, while BYU claims Utah leads 58–31–4, as BYU does not count the six games between Utah and Brigham Young Academy in its records (played prior to 1922). Either way, Utah has a large lead in the overall series and dominated the rivalry prior to 1972 by going 41–8–4. Then, BYU dominated the series with a record of 19–2 from 1972 to 1992. However, since 1993, Utah is 18-7, including EIGHT straight wins. Despite some key late-season injuries in 2018, Utah finished atop the South standings (6-3) for the 1st time since entering the Pac-12 in 2011, before losing a hard-fought 10-3 defensive battle to Washington in the Pac-12 champ game. The Utes would then lose 31-20 to Northwestern in the Holiday bowl to finish 9-5. However, at the Pac-12 media gathering in July, the Utes garnered 33 of the 35 1st-place votes in the South & edged the North’s Oregon (11 votes) & Washington (nine) with 12 votes as the projected conference title game winner. BYU enters 2019 playing its 10th consecutive season as an Independent. The Cougars bounced back from an 'ugly' 4-9 finish in 2017 (school's 1st losing season since 2004) to finish 7-6 in 2018, after a 49-18 rout of Western Michigan in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. QB Tyler Huntley and RB Zack Moss (an All-Pac 12 preseason choice) are both ready to go in 2019. They both missed LY's Pac-12 championship loss, as well as the Utes' bowl loss. Huntley is back after missing the L5 games of 2018 with a broken collarbone. When healthy, he is a dual threat at QB. As for Moss, he racked up 1,096 yards (6.1 YPC) & 11 TDs in just nine games, before a knee injury ended his season early. On the other side of the ball, Utah boasts one of the nation’s top DLs, led by Bradlee Anae, Leki Fotu and John Penisini. The talented secondary is led by preseason All-Pac 12 first-team selections Julian Blackmon and Jaylon Johnson. Head coach Kalani Sitake enters his 4th season at BYU and the offense will be led by soph QB Zach Wilson, who started the final seven games of 2018 (note: he was a perfect 18-for-18 for 307 yards with four TDPs in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl). The team's rushing attack is a question mark, as LY's leading rusher Lopini Katoa ran for only 423 yards (5.6 YPC / 8 TDs). BYU played good defense last season, allowing a modest 21.4 PPG on 325.2 YPG and its strength this year will be a seconddary that returns CB Chris Wilcox plus safeties Dayan Ghanwoloku & Austin Lee (trio combined for 31 starts last season). BYU blew a 27-7 lead with a minute left in the 3rd Q of LY's game, before suffering a painful 35-27 defeat in Salt Lake City. Revenge? With a visit to Tennessee up next and then back-to-back home games against USC and Washington, winning here will be even more important. That said, BYU has had played with revenge vs Utah for some time now, as Utah has won EIGHT straight in the series. Whittingham has quite a run at Utah since taking over for Urban Meyer after the 2004 season. He's led the Utes to 12 bowls the L14 years, winning 10. His teams have finished in the final AP poll FIVE times, including a No. 2 finish back in 2008, when the team capped a 13-0 season with a 31-17 Sugar Bowl win over Alabama. In 2014, 2015 & 2016, the Utes finished ranked after beginning the season unranked. This year's team may not be as special as the 2008 one (no way) but Utah is ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll and it's well-deserved. Expect more 'pain' to come BYU's way in yet another "Holy War." Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-29-19 | Raiders v. Seahawks -2 | Top | 15-17 | Push | 0 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
My NFLX 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Sea Seahawks at 10:00 ET. Jon Gruden's first season back in the NFL went very poorly in 2018, as the Raiders finished 4-12 (last-place in the AFC West) and 6-10 ATS. Gruden has always had a good preseason record and he's been perfect so far in 2019, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The Raiders opened with a 14-3 home win over the disinterested Rams, then won 33-26 at Arizona in Week 2. Oakland made it THREE straight wins last Thursday with a 22-21 win over the Packers, a game played in Winnipeg, Manitoba. The contest was played on a field shortened to 80 yards for player safety. The end zones were marked by bright orange pylons at the 10-yard lines and there were no kickoffs. The field was reconfigured because of concerns about the areas where the goal posts for the CFL's Winnipeg franchise were removed and covered with turf. Before warmups, game officials and staff from both clubs examined the turf that covered the goal post spots for 110-yard CFL games. The goal posts would have been inside the NFL end zones. Packers coach Matt LaFleur decided to sit 33 players, including star QB Aaron Rodgers, yet the Raiders needed a Daniel Carlson 33-yard field goal with 8 seconds remaining to earn the one point win. Like Gruden, Seattle's Pete Carroll has an excellent preseason record and the Seahawks are 2-1 SU and ATS in 2019, losing only at Minnesota, another outstanding preseason team under head coach Mike Zimmer. Russell Wilson directed the Seahawks to a pair of TDs and a field goal in five possessions in two preseason games and it's unlikely that he will play in Thursday's preseason finale. Geno Smith seemed well ahead of Paxton Lynch entering the first preseason contest against Denver (Aug 8) but Lynch, playing against deeper Broncos reserves, out-played Smith that night while Smith played on the cyst in his knee. He had it removed the next day. Lynch was 11 for 15 for 109 yards and a touchdown pass. Smith sat out the Minnesota loss, while Lynch was 6 for 15 against the Vikings before he had his 'bell rung.' Lynch sat out Week 3 (concussion protocol) and Smith entered on the fourth series (following Wilson's solid effort), with the score 13-3. He led the Seahawks to scores on his first two drives, the kind of performance that may go a long way toward earning him the backup spot over Lynch. Smith led the Seahawks on drives of 48, 73 and 74 yards the first three times he was in the game, completing 10 of 16 passes for 117 yards and also rushing four times for 26 yards while adding a TD. Oakland wraps its preseason with this game in Seattle, returning from Winnipeg (won't here that again for awhile). It's hard to see Carr playing much (if at all) and that leaves Mike Glennon and Nathan Peterman. For some reason, Gruden likes Peterman but why? Consider this. Peterman is arguably the worst QB in the history of the NFL, as no QB with at least 100 pass attempts in the last 20 years has a lower career passer rating than Peterman's 32.5! Carroll rarely needs motivation in a preseason game but note that the Raiders beat the Seahawks 30-19 in Week 4 of last year's preseason (in Seattle), as E.J. Manuel, a former NFL starter, threw four TD passes (Manuel is long gone). In last year's contest, Carroll's QBs were career fourth-stringer Austin Davis and then-rookie Alex McGough (now 'stinking it up' in Jacksonville). Here, we should see plenty of a highly-motivated Geno Smith (dangerous against non-starters) plus maybe some Paxton Lynch or rookie J.T. Barrett. No 4-0 preseason here for Oakland, as Seattle wins handily Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-28-19 | Cubs v. Mets -110 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The Mets were just 40-50 at the All Star break but after a three-game home sweep of the Indians from Aug 20-22, New York had ripped off 27 wins in 37 contests and sat 67-60. The Mets welcomed the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves to Citi Field last Friday for a three-game series, having gone 14-2 at home since the break. However, the Mets lost all THREE, including a pair of 2-1 games, one which lasted 14 innings in a contest the Mets struck out 26 batters. New York was off Monday but lost its FOURTH straight home game last night, 5-2 against the Cubs. The Cubs own the NL's second-best home record (44-22) but have struggled on the road in 2019, as last night's win gave Chicago a 26-39 record away from Wrigley Field. Despite the four-game slide, the Mets are hanging around in the NL wild card race, three games back of the Cubs, who are three games back of the Nats for the No. 1 wild card spot. It's an excellent pitching matchup tonight, as Kyle Hendricks (9-9, 3.20 ERA) takes on Noah Syndergaard (9-6, 3.71 ERA). Hendricks went on the injured list on June 15 with right shoulder inflammation but returned on July 2. He's made 10 starts since his return and while he's allowed two ERs or less in NINE of them, the Cubs are just 3-7 in those starts. Hendricks turned in a excellent performance against San Francisco on Thursday, earning the victory with seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball while striking out seven in a 1-0 victory. However, as just noted, his solid pitching has often NOT resulted in a team win. The Mets' Syndergaard also spent mid-to-late June on the DL but since his June 30 return, the Mets have won SEVEN of his 10 starts. The Mets are 4-1 in his last five starts (1.35 ERA) and he owns a 1.82 ERA in eight starts since the All-Star break, a stretch in which he is a perfect 8-for-8 in quality starts. The Mets HAVE to snap their current losing streak if they have any hope of staying in the wild card race. Syndergaard is the pitcher they WANT on the mound and Hendricks is MORE than vulnerable. He's often pitched in poor luck in 2019 but what HAS been consistent is his dramatic away/home dichotomy. Hendricks owns a 1.79 ERA, 0.81 WHIP and .189 BAA in Wrigley but in all other venues, he owns a 4.76 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and .288 BAA. Mets win! Mets win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-28-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -140 | Top | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* ("Best Bet")Situational Stunner is on the Phi Phillies at 6:05 ET. The Pittsburgh Pirates were very much in the NL wild card chase at the All Star break but then lost 30 of their first 38 coming out of the break to end all postseason hopes. Pittsburgh did sweep the Reds in a three-game home series this past weekend and has now split a pair of one-run games in Philadelphia Monday and Tuesday. The Phillies lost TWO of three in Miami to the Marlins over the weekend (Miami owns the NL's worst record) and now need to avoid the same fate Wednesday at home vs the Pirates, as the teams play the rubber match of the series tonight. Philadelphia has been 'stuck in neutral' since the break, having gone 21-20. That leaves them 10 1/2 games back of the NL East-leading Braves and at 68-63, two games back of the second wild card spot (Cubs), with the Mets (one back), Brewers (1 1/2 back) and Arizona (two back) breathing down their necks. Rookie Mitch Keller (1-2, 7.24 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh, while Philadelphia counters with Vince Velasquez (5-7, 4.93 ERA). Keller was selected in the second round of the 2014 draft (was currently listed as Pittsburgh No. pitching prospect) but has hardly looked "ready for primetime" in his six 2019 starts. He's allowed 39 hits in just 27.1 innings, posting a 7.24 ERA, 1.83 WHIP and .339 BAA in all situations. In three road starts, those numbers get even worse (hard to believe), as he owns a 9.75 ERA, 2.33 WHIP and an almost unbelievable .400 BAA! Velasquez began his career with the Astros in 2015 but he's been with the Phillies since 2016. He's made 116 career appearances (93 starts) and checks in with a career record of 25-33 with a 4.66 ERA. He'll take the mound tonight off a truly 'ugly' outing in his last start. He surrendered an early SEVEN-run lead last Friday at Miami, allowing a season-high seven runs in just 2.1 innings of a no-decision at Miami (Marlins would win, 19-11). "I feel pretty embarrassed," the 27-year-old said. "I'm pretty embarrassed and disappointed and I take full responsibility for the whole outcome of the game." That's an UNDERSTATEMENT, as Miami owns the NL's worst record, while ranking 29th in scoring (3.73 RPG), 28th in team BA (.241) plus 30th in both OPS (.668) and HRs (111). I'm sure no big fan of Velasquez but I do see this as a great "bounce-back" opportunity for him against a team that is just 5-15 on the road since the break. As for his mound opponent tonight, Keller recorded his best performance of his young career last Friday, allowing one run and striking out nine in six-plus innings of a no-decision against Cincinnati. See above for a reminder of just how bad his 2019 numbers are, which INCLUDE his effort last Friday. The Phillies have disappointed so far but they remain "right in" the running for a wild card spot. This is a game the team really needs to win, with the Mets coming to town for three games this weekend. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-26-19 | Pirates v. Phillies -125 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on the Phi Phillies at 7:05 ET. The Philadelphia Phillies lost TWO of three in Miami to the Marlins over the weekend (Miami owns the NL's worst record). The Phillies return home this week for three games with the Pirates and then three with the Mets. Philadelphia has bee 'stuck in neutral' since the break, having gone 20-19. That leaves them at 67-62 and 11 1/2 games back of the NL East-leading Braves. Philly's only realistic playoff hopes now are in earning one of two NL wild card berths. Philadelphia is currently 1 1/2 games back of the Cubs (owners of the second wild card spot), tied with the Mets, who as noted, are coming to Philly Friday through Sunday. Pittsburgh fell out of playoff contention by going a disastrous 8-30 out of the break but all of a sudden, swept a three-game home series against the Reds over the weekend. Taking the mound for tonight's series opener will be Pittsburgh's Joe Musgrove (8-12, 4.74 ERA) and Philadelphia's Jason Vargas (6-6, 3.99 ERA). Musgrove ended April with just a 1-2 record through six appearances (five starts) but owned a 1.54 ERA. However, his ERA had climbed over 4.00 by late-May and has remained there. Musgrove takes the mound tonight winless in his last four starts,after allowing six runs (five earned) on seven hits in five innings of an 11-1 loss to Washington this past Wednesday. He's 0-3 (team is 1-3) in August, allowing 18 ERs over just 21 innings (7.71 ERA). Philly hands the ball to Vargas, who was a trade-deadline acquisition from the Mets. Vargas has yet to earn a win in four starts (he's 0-1 and the team 1-3) but it would be unfair to say he's been a flop. A closer look reveals the lefty has had just one poor start, allowing four ERs over five innings of a 6-1 loss at Arizona. In his other three outings (all at home, like tonight), he's allowed two ERs in each one (3.00 ERA). I wouldn't sell Vargas short, just yet. He will take the mound against a struggling pitcher (in Musgrove) and against a Pittsburgh team which is 4-14 on the road since the break. What's more, the Pirates are just 12-22 (4.2 RPG) against lefties on the season, including 6-12 on the road. More good news comes Philly's way in that Bryce Harper will return to the lineup on Monday after leaving for Las Vegas on Wednesday night to be with wife Kayla for the birth of their son. Harper is batting .290 with nine HRs and 20 RBI with a 1.139 OPS in his last 17 games.Pittsburgh just may be "just what the doctor ordered" for the Phillies. For tonight, that's my bet! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-26-19 | Cardinals v. Brewers -131 | 12-2 | Loss | -131 | 9 h 26 m | Show | |
My 9* Division Dominator (NL Central) is on the Mil Brewers at 7:05 ET. St. Louis Cardinals entered the All Star break at 44-44, leaving them 3 1/2 games behind the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central. However, the Cards would go 12-3 to open the second half. They regained a share of first place on July 25 and stayed there until Aug 2, when a five-game losing streak on a West Coast swing (Aug 3-7) saw them fall four games back on Aug 8. However, after completing a four-game home sweep of Colorado over the weekend, the Cards have won 13 of their last 16 and open this series against the Milwaukee Brewers at 71-58. That gives them a 2 1/2 game lead in the division over the Cubs. The Brewers welcome the Cards to Miller Park with a 67-63 record, leaving them 4 1/2 games back of the Cards in the NL Central and tied with the NY Mets, TWO games back of the Cubs for the second wild card spot. Adam Wainwright (9-9, 4.51 ERA) takes the mound for St Louis, opposed by Milwaukee's Gio Gonzalez (2-1, 3.64 ERA). Wainwright is set to face Milwaukee for the second time in less than a week, after he allowed five runs on eight hits and four walks in a 5-3 loss in St Louis last Wednesday. Wainwright's seen plenty of the Brewers in his career, going 16-10 (2.53 ERA) over 33 starts (team is 21-12). The three-time All-Star has struggled all season-long away from home, posting a 6.64 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .294 BAA in 12 road starts (as opposed to a 2.67 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and .247 BAA in in 12 home starts). The Brewers picked up Gonzalez in September of 2018 and the veteran lefty went 3-0 (2.13 ERA) in five starts (Brewers were 5-0). Gonzalez has had some injury issues this year (nothing new, there) and has made just 12 starts. He is winless over his last eight starts dating back to May 15 and did not factor into the decision for a seventh straight outing Tuesday at St.Louis, after allowing one run on three hits and four walks over six innings (Cards won 9-4). While Gonzalez has just ONE win in his 12 starts in 2019, note that the Brewers are 8-4 in those starts, including going 4-1 here in Miller Park. Gonzalez owns a 3.11 ERA in 11 career starts against St Louis. I'm not even close to giving up on Milwaukee, which won the NL Central last season at 96-67, then swept the Rockies 3-0 in the NLDS, before taking the LA Dodgers to seven games in the NLCS. Could the Cards be ready for another "mini slump" (like in early Aug)? Wainwright just allowed five runs on eight hits and four walks in a 5-3 loss in St Louis this past Wednesday against the Brewers and I expect his road woes to continue tonight at Miller Park. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-25-19 | Blue Jays v. Mariners -140 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on the Sea Mariners at 4:10 ET. The Toronto Blue Jays snapped their six-game losing streak with a 5-4 win last night in Seattle. Seattle had won FIVE of its previous six but as the teams get set for the rubber match of the three-game series on Sunday, both are 'buried' near the bottom of the standings in their respective divisions. 53-79 Toronto is 31 1/2 games back of the Yankees in the AL East, while 55-75 Seattle is 28 1/2 games back of the Astros in the AL West. Little was expected of the Jays this season (and they've 'delivered' on those expectations!) but in a 'time long ago,' the Mariners opened the 2019 season 13-2!! So much for that. Sunday's pitching matchup will feature Clay Buchholz (0-2, 6.57 ERA) of Toronto and Marco Gonzales (13-10, 4.30 ERA) of Seattle. Buchholz will be activated from the injured list to make his sixth start of the season but first since May 5 because of a strained muscle in his upper back. The now 35-year-old has been hampered by injuries over the last three seasons, making a total of just 23 starts for three different teams. He has worked more than five innings just ONCE in his five outings of 2019 and in his most recent start (May 5), got hammered for seven ERs on eight hits over just four innings of a 10-2 loss at Texas. In three road starts in 2019, Buchholz owns an 8.56 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and .345 BAA. Anyone seriously expect a good outing from him? Yes, Seattle has 'fallen off a cliff' after its 13-2 start (has played .365 baseball since!) but Gonzales has been 'under the radar good' this season. Gonzales recorded his career high-tying 13th win this past Monday, when he gave up three runs on five hits in five innings at Tampa Bay in a 9-3 win. He enters this contest on a five-start unbeaten streak at home, during which he has gone 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA. Buchholz has been battling a Grade 2 teres major muscle strain in his upper back but will "give it a go" after three rehabilitation starts. Here's the bottom line. Buchholz pitched for Boston from 2007-16, playing on World Series winners in 2007 and 2013. He made the All Star team twice, in 2010 (17-7, 2.33 ERA) and in 2013 (12-1, 1.74 ERA in just 16 starts) but "that pitcher" no longer exists. Just like Seattle is no longer a 13-2 team! However, Seattle does own a starter in Gonzales, who unlike Buchholz, comes into this contest in solid form. Seattle takes this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-25-19 | Braves v. Mets -108 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -108 | 5 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the NY Mets at 1:10 ET. The Atlanta Braves won the NL East last year and have been the division's best team again in 2019. That said, the Braves haven't "stood pat," as they've bolstered their roster with waiver-wire pickups this month due to injuries. Those newcomers continue to pay dividends, as Francisco Cervelli had three hits with three RBI in his Atlanta debut Saturday, while Billy Hamilton singled as a pinch-hitter and scored in Saturday’s 9-5 victory that extended the Braves winning streak to SEVEN in a row, allowing the Braves to maintain their six-game lead in the NL East over the Nats. The Mets have lost just three of their 13 series since the All-Star break but with Saturday's defeat, TWO of those series' losses have come against the Braves. Yes, the Mets are 27-12 since the break but at 67-62, they are tied with the Brewers (two games back of the final wild card spot), with both teams a half-game back of the Phillies. Taking the mound for the series finale will be Dallas Keuchel (4-5, 4.14 ERA) and Steven Matz (8-7, 4.18 ERA), squaring off in a battle of left-handers. Keuchel, a former Cy Young winner (2015) and World Series champ (2017), signed with the Braves in early June and he's made 12 starts. In six of his starts he's allowed two ERs or less and seven times, he's pitched at least six innings. However, a closer look reveals this trend. Keuchel has been dominant in six home starts, going 2-1 (team is 4-2) with a 2.29 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a .196 BAA. However, in six away starts, he's 2-4 with a 6.40 ERA, 1.79 WHIP and a .331 BAA. OUCH! Matzwas sent to the bullpen at the the beginning of July (made two relief appearances) but returned to the rotation after the All Star break and to be sure, he's helped fuel the Mets second-half surge. He's allowed two ERs or less in SIX of his seven post-break starts, posting a 2.81 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 41.2 innings. Like Keuchel, his away/home dichotomy provides a stark contrast. Matz is 2-7 in 13 road starts (Mets are 4-9), posting a 6.28 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and .290 BAA. However, he's 6-0 in 10 home starts (Mets are 8-2), with a 2.07 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .235 BAA. The Mets can't win this series but a win here will be a big confidence-builder and guaranrtees they won't lose any ground in the wild card chase (could gain with losses by by the Cubs, Phillies or Brewers). Looking at Keuchel's AWFUL road numbers and Matz's outstanding home numbers, why NOT play the Mets? What's more, it doesn't hurt that Matz is 5-1 with a 3.39 ERA in 11 career starts against Atlanta. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-24-19 | Broncos v. Rams -1 | Top | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* NFLX Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 9:00 ET. The Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams get together Saturday in LA and neither team expects to play its starters very much. "Most of the guys you refer to as ‘starters’ will not play in the game (Saturday),” Denver head coach Vic Fangio said before practice on Thursday. “It’s our fourth (preseason) game, not our third, and we just felt like it’s the best thing to do for our team now.” As for LA, head coach Sean McVay has used his starters sparingly in the team's first two games and there is NO reason to expect him to do otherwise in this contest (more on that in a bit). The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. We'll have to wait until the regular season to judge if he was a good hire. The Broncos have played three preseason games, starting out with a 14-10 win over the Falcons in the Hall of Fame Game (needed a TD with 1 1/2 minutes remaining to beat a team which has now lost 12 straight preseason games.) Denver followed with a 22-14 loss at Seattle, before losing this past Monday at home to the 49ers, 24-15 The Rams looked disinterested in Week 1 in a 14-3 loss at Oakland, gaining just 190 total yards with just 10 FDs. Things weren't much better in Wee2, as the Rams lost in Hawaii 14-10 against the Cowboys. LA gained 270 yards (with 14 FDs) in that one but went scoreless in the second half. McVay has treated the preseason as merely exhibition games and it's worked well. He took over a franchise in 2017 that hadn't had a winning season since 2003 and has won back-to-back NFC West titles, going 11-5 in 2017 and 13-3 last year. Some may remember, the Rams almost beat the Pats in last year's Super Bowl. There can be little argument that McVay's reserves are better than Denver's. Flacco and Lock (team's No.2 QB) will NOT see time here, as Kevin Hogan will start, backed up by Brett Rypien. Hogan may have been 36-10 as Stanford's starting QB but he's played in just eight NFL games (one start), with four TDs and seven INTs (61.5 QB rating. Hogan is 13-of 30 (43.3%) for 104 yards (zero TDs and one INT) in the 2019 preseason. Rypien is a rookie who did throw the game-winning TD pass in the HOF game but hasn't played since. As for the Rams, Blake Bortles should see plenty of action at QB and let's not forget that he was the overall No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft by Jacksonville. He threw for 35 TDs and almost 4,500 yards in 2015 and in 2017, led the Jags to the AFC championship game at New England, where Jacksonville coughed up a 4th-quarter lead. As noted above, this game will be decided by the reserves but Fangio has made it well-known he has little interest in doing anything but keeping his team healthy. It is hardly a good situation that this will be Denver's fourth game in FOUR different cities this preseason, plus will be back on the field again next Thursday in Denver. Sure, McVay has played it close to the vest in the preseason but his team has gone 3-1 SU in home preseason games the last two years (lone loss came by two points). NOTE: This will be LA's LONE home game of the 2019 preseason. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-24-19 | Florida v. Miami-FL +7.5 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 130 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Battle 4 Florida is on Miami-Fl at 7:00 ET. The Gators fell apart under Jim McElwain, going 4-7 in 2017. To the rescue came Miss St head coach Dan Mullen, who had earlier served as Urban Meyer’s O.C. for two Florida national-title teams (2006 and 2008). Tim Tebow, flourished under Mullen, as did Miss St QBs Dak Prescott and Nick Fitzgerald. The Gators became relevant again in 2018, finishing 10-4 in 2018 after its 41-15 romp over Michigan in the Peach Bowl. Mark Richt led Miami to a 9-4 record in his first season (2016). Much was expected of the 2017 team and Miami opened 9-0, including wins over then-No. 13 Va Tech (28-10) and then-No. 3 Notre Dame (41-8), to open November. Miami reached 10-0 with a win over UVa the following week and played its final regular season game at Pittsburgh, ranked No. 2 in the nation. The 'Canes lost 24-14 and then got crushed 38-3 by Clemson in the ACC title game. That Notre Dame win was supposed to be a watershed event but it instead became the apex of the Richt era. The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after that 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Manny Diaz was Miami's DC from 2016-18 and after Richt's retirement on December 30, 2018, Diaz was hired as head coach. The “Mullen Magic” worked a year ago for Gator QB Feleipe Franks, who had disappointed for McElvain as a freshman in 2017. He had 24 TDPs and just six INTs, after a 9-8 ratio in 2017. He developed into a real SEC signal-caller last year under Mullen. The top-seven pass catchers return from 2018 and RB Lamical Perine needs 1,189 rushing yards to become the Gators’ first 3,000-yard career rusher since Earnest Graham at the end of the Steve Spurrier era. A worry could be replacing four multi-year starters along the OL. Retaining DC Todd Grantham was good news, as in wins against Florida State and Michigan to cap the 2018 season, the D forced five TOs, recorded 10 sacks, and held the Seminoles and Wolverines to a combined 7-for-30- on third downs. Seven starters return. No one can blame Diaz' D for LY's 'collapse. Diaz is considered the mastermind behind the "Turnover Chain," a Cuban link chain with a charm in the shape of the school's iconic "U" logo. Despite the team's 7-6 record in 2018, Miami ranked No. 2 in total defense and ranked No. 1 in several other categories. In fact, Miami led the nation in “havoc rate” (total combined tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles, divided by total plays) a year ago. Offense, or the lack thereof, is what held back the "U" a year ago. Miami ranked 105th in total offense and an embarrassing 113th in passing, as neither senior Malik Rosier nor red-shirt freshman N’Kosi Perry provided anything remotely like consistency at the QB spot. In fact, the most important Diaz hire might be new OC Dan Enos, a former Michigan State QB and onetime HC at Central Michigan, who was most recently the QB coach for Nick Saban’s Alabama staff. It turns out that Jarren Williams, who was highly recruited but couldn’t get in a game last year (he did get in one, playing garbage time against cupcake Savannah State, going 1 for 3 for 17 yards), has beaten out Perry and highly-touted Ohio St transfer, Tate Martell. Diaz has made a bold choice and Williams gets tested right away vs Florida in Orlando (Gators are ranked No. 8 in the preseason coaches' poll). Not many expected Florida to return to the top-10 as quickly as it did a year ago and I'm one who believes the Gators are rated too high this early. These two rivals used to play annually but haven’t faced off since 2013 (Miami won 21-16) and not in an opener since 1987, when the 'Canes won 31-4. I guess Orlando is "closer to home" for Florida than it is for Miami but I want the points with the MUCH better defensive team. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-24-19 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers -120 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Mil Brewers at 7:10 ET. The 66-62 Milwaukee Brewers are fighting to stay in the race for the second National League wild card and opened their three-game home series vs the D'backs with a 6-1 victory on Friday night. Milwaukee is in the midst of a stretch of 25 straight games against teams in contention in their respective leagues and Friday's victory gives hem a modest 4-5 record in that stretch. Clearly, the Brewers will have to play better, as they are three games back of the Cubs for the second wild card spot (Milwaukee will play Chicago seven times over the next two weeks) but also have two teams in between them (Mets and Phillies). Many thought that Arizona "threw in the towel" when it dealt Greinke at the trade deadline (note: Greinke has gone 4-0 with the Astros) and after getting just two hits last night, Arizona has fallen 5 1/2 games back of the Cubs by losing SIX of nine (64-65). Zac Gallen (2-3, 2.45 ERA) takes the mound for Arizona, opposed by Milwaukee's Chase Anderson (5-3, 4.54 ERA). Gallen is a rookie who came over from the Miami Marlins at the trade deadline. He's been excellent in three starts, allowing just three ERs over 15 innings (1.80 ERA), with Arizona winning all three games. Gallen faces Milwaukee for the first time. Anderson will be trying to bounce back after getting hammered for a career-worst 10 runs on nine hits (including three HRs) in only 2.1 innings at Washington on Sunday (Nats won, 16-8). However, let's NOT fail to note that he had allowed three ERs in each of his previous 10 starts! Gallen has looked good but he's got a limited resume and I'm of the belief that Arizona is headed 'south!' Meanwhile, I'm not even close to giving up on Milwaukee, which won the NL Centarl last season at 96-67, then swept the Rockies 3-0 in the NLDS, before taking the LA Dodgers to seven games in the NLCS. Anderson has pitched "better than his record" and should be primed for a bounce-back effort off his most recent outing (see above). Looking for some "extra motivation? Note that Anderson will square off against his former franchise for the sixth time (he pitched for Arizona in 2014 & 2015) and owns a 2.10 ERA in five previous starts against the D'backs. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-24-19 | Braves v. Mets -107 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The Atlanta Braves opened their important three-game series at Citi Field with the NY Mets last night with a 2-1 win in 14 innings. It was Atlanta's SIXTH straight win, while the Mets lost for just the SECOND time in their last 15 home games and the defeat snapped their five-game winning streak, dropping them to 27-11 since the All-Star break. The Braves remained SIX games up in the NL East over the Nationals, while the Mets fell 10 games back in the division, although they remained just two games back of the Cubs in the race for the NL's second wild card spot (note: Phillies are just a half-game back of the Mets and the Brewers are just one game back). Tonight's pitching matchup is Max Fried (14-4, 3.84 ERA) vs Zack Wheeler (9-7, 4.40 ERA). It marks a "re-hook" from an Aug 13 game in Atlanta which the Braves won 5-3. Fried beat the Mets in that one, allowing one run on six hits over six innings. However, Fried saw his five-start win streak end with a no-decision this past Sunday against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He survived allowing three runs on five hits in a 38-pitch first inning but then gave up just three hits in the next four innings as the Braves rallied for a 5-3 win. The 25-year-old has had a memorable season. He opened the season with two relief appearances but has since made 24 consecutive starts (team is 18-6 and his moneyline mark of plus-$976 ranks 7th-best among all starters). Many expected Wheeler to be moved at the trade deadline but that didn't happen. He responded by delivering 15 consecutive scoreless innings in back-to-back 4-0 and 5-0 wins to open August. However, the Braves ended that streak when they pounded out 12 hits and scored five runs over just five innings in that Aug 13 contest (see above). Wheeler fared better in his last start Sunday at Kansas City, allowing four runs (three earned) on four hits over five innings. Wheeler, has gotten the job done for the Mets here at Citi Field, as the team is 8-3 in his home starts (remember: Mets are 13-2 their L15 at home!). I like the "quick turnaround" situation here and while I've "played on" Fried quite a bit this season, I believe this is a great spot to go against him. Incredibly, the Braves struck out 26 times in Friday's 2-1 win (14 inn)., making the Mets the fifth team to record 26 strikeouts in a game (just the second to lose). NOTHING went right for the Mets last night, as they had the heart of the order up in the ninth, loaded the bases in the 10th and had the winning run on third base with one out in the 11th. Coming away "with nothing," all three times. In fact, New York's only run cnme on deGrom's sixth-inning HR, as the Mets went 1-for-9 with runners on base following that blast. Expect a different result, tonight! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-24-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers -137 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 16 m | Show | |
My 7* Daytime Dominator is on the LA Dodgers at 4:05 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers welcomed the New Yankees to Dodger Stadium for a crucial three-game series beginning last night. LA owned a two-game lead over NY for the best record in the majors, with home-field advantage throughout the postseason going to the team with MLB's best record. LA was coming off back-to-back walk-off home victories over Toronto (giving them a major league-best 12 on the year) and opened the series with MLB's best home record (51-16, outscoring opponents on average, 5.43-to-3.10 RPG). Meanwhile, the Yankees had matched a season worst by losing FOUR in a row, after opening a nine-game West Coast trip by losing all three contest in Oakland (Tue-Thu). Ryu took the mound last night for LA, with the Dodgers having gone 11-0 in his Chavez Ravine starts in 2019. No wonder, as he owned an 0.81 ERA, allowing just 52 hits over 77.2 innings (.189 BAA) plus had 74-10 KW Ratio (0.80 WHIP). Yes, the Yankees owned a dangerous lineup but they had totaled just NINE runs in three straight losses at Oakland to start a six-game trip plus had managed just 27 runs in their last seven games (3.86 per),. So what happened Friday night? Didi Gregorius collected five RBI on a grand slam and a solo shot, as New York homered FIVE five times in a 10-2 win in the series opener. Ryu allowed nine hits and seven ERs over just 4.1 innings, just the THIRD time in 24 starts this season in which he has allowed more than two ERs. Go figure? The Yankees now trail the Dodgers by just ONE game in the battle for MLB's best record, as CC Sabathia (5-7, 5.01 ERA) takes the mound this afternoon against Tony Gonsolin (1-1, 3.00 ERA). The 39-year-old Sabathia is coming down the stretch of his impressive 19-season career. He returned from the injured list due to knee tendinitis this past Sunday and gave up four runs on four hits over just three innings of an 8-4 home loss to Cleveland. CC has lost three straight starts and is winless over his last FIVE, a stretch during which he is 0-3 (the Yanks are 1-4) while posting a 7.77 ERA and has allowed 10 HRs. Sabathia is 1-0 with a 0.84 ERA in three career starts against Los Angeles (teams are 3-0) but is that really relevant here? More in a bit. While Sabathia owns 556 career starts, 251 wins and 3,073 strikeouts, Gonsolin will be making his fourth major-league start and fifth appearance. The 25-year-old lasted just four innings against Atlanta on Sunday, when he gave up one run and five hits in a 5-3 loss. Gonsolin has looked sharp so far, posting an 0.94 WHIP with a 15-1 KW ratio, while holding opponents to a ,225 BAA. In his lone home start (an 8-0 win on Aug 5 vs StL), he allowed just two hits over six scoreless innings. Yes, LA got pounded last night here at home but remember, the Dodgers are 51-17 at home, outscoring opponents on average, 5.38-to-3.21 RPG. Getting back to CC, he's been just AWFUL on the road this season, going 1-5 in nine road starts (Yanks are 2-7), with a 6.95 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and .314 BAA. Of yeah, ONE last thing. The Dodgers are 14-1 (93%) in home day games. That's good enough for me. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-23-19 | Red Sox -113 v. Padres | Top | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker's Error is on the Bos Red Sox at 10:10 ET. The Boston's wild card hopes took a hit when the Red Sox dropped two games at home Tuesday and Wednesday to the Philadelphia Phillies. However. Boston managed to pick up a win on Thursday afternoon, when it finished off a suspended game against the Kansas City Royals by pushing a run across in the 10th inning to grab a 5-4 victory and avoid a three-game slide. The 68-61 Red Sox are currently SEVEN games back of the AL's second wild card spot, as they open an eight-game road trip by visiting the San Diego Padres on Friday. The Padres return home off back-to-back losses at Cincinnati on Tuesday and Wednesday. San Diego's wild card chances are clearly on 'life-support,' as the Padres are not only NINE games back of the second wild card spot but SIX teams are ahead of them! Eduardo Rodriguez (14-5, 4.10 ERA) will take the mound for Boston, opposed by San Diego rookie Chris Paddack (7-6, 3.44 ERA). Rodriguez snapped a three-start winless streak with a strong effort against Baltimore this past Saturday, scattering four hits over 7/1 scoreless innings to earn a 4-0 win. With Sale and Price hurt (both have been HUGE underachievers in 2019, as well), the Venezuela native has been a staff mainstay (more later). Rodriguez is making his first career start against San Diego but is 6-2 with a 3.61 ERA in 13 interleague starts. Paddock is making his first start against Boston. He started strong in 2019, going 4-2 with a 1.93 ERA thru May 20 (San Diego was 7-2 in his nine starts). However, the season has taken a toll on the 23-year-old, who has just THREE wins in his last 12 starts. He's looked 'lost' lately, allowing 13 ERs on 20 hits over 14.2 innings in his last three outings (7.98 ERA). Paddack will face a Boston lineup which is 25-16 on the road vs righties, averaging 5.5 RPG. Meanwhile, the left-handed Rodriguez faces a San Diego lineup which is just 10-17 vs lefties on the season, averaging only 3.9 RPG. Getting back to Rodriguez, he's been Boston's biggest money-maker for the SECOND straight year. He was 19-4 in team starts in 2018 (+$1,387) and here in 2019, his team record is 19-7 (+$1,128). Getting him at pick'em vs a slumping Paddack is a bargain. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-23-19 | Yankees v. Dodgers -134 | 10-2 | Loss | -134 | 13 h 5 m | Show | |
My 7* Pitch-Perfect Play is on the LA Dodgers at 10:10 ET. The 85-44 Los Angeles Dodgers enter a crucial three-game series against the visiting 83-46 New York Yankees on Friday, owning a two-game lead for the best record in the majors f(home-field advantage throughout the postseason will go to the team with MLB's best record). LA is coming off back-to-back walk-off home victories over Toronto (giving them a major league-best 12 on the year) and will open the series with MLB's best home record (51-16, outscoring opponents on average, 5.43-to-3.10 RPG). Meanwhile, the Yankees have matched a season worst by losing FOUR in a row, after opening a nine-game West Coast trip by losing all three contest in Oakland (Tue-Thu). The first game of the series features two lefties, New York's James Paxton (9-6, 4.53 ERA) and LA's Hyun-Jin Ryu (12-3, 1.64 ERA). Paxton was just 5-6 with a 4.72 ERA through his first 18 starts of 2019. However, he has won each of his last four starts, although his ERA is just a so-so 3.80 in that span. Ryu allowed four runs on six hits (including two HRs) over 5.2 innings while losing 4-3 to Atlanta in his last outing (Aug 17). To put it mildly, that start was an outlier for Ryu in 2019. He entered last Saturday's outing having allowed just TWO runs over a six-start span (39.2 innings / 0.45 ERA). Almost unbelievably, Ryu has allowed two ERs or less in all but TWO of his 23 starts in 2019. Read that again, S-L-O-W-L-Y! He owns a 1.64 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and .223 BAA for the season, with the Dodgers going 17-6, +$815 in his starts (11th-best moneyline mark). However, let me now get to "the good stuff!" Here in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers are a PERFECT 11-0 in Ryu's starts and no wonder. He owns an 0.81 ERA, has allowed just 52 hits over 77.2 innings (.189 BAA) plus has 74-10 KW Ratio (0.80 WHIP). He'll take the mound against a dangerous New York lineup but one which totaled just NINE runs in three straight losses at Oakland to start a six-game trip plus one that has managed just 27 runs in its last seven games (3.86 per), FIVE of which have been losses. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-23-19 | Rangers -134 v. White Sox | 3-8 | Loss | -134 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tex Rangers at 8:10 ET. The Rangers and White Sox opened a four-game series last night in Chicago, with the White Sox cruising to a 6-1 victory. Texas entered the series having won THREE of four at home (all in walk-off fashion) but the loss dropped Texas to just 25-39 away from home on the season. The White Sox are now just 31-31 at home but they have dominated the Rangers lately here at Guaranteed Rate Field, winning 11 of the last 13 meetings. The teams continue their series tonight but both are just "playing out the string." The 63-66 Rangers are 12 games back of the second AL wild card spot, while the 58-69 White Sox are 16 games back. Veteran Lance Lynn (14-8, 3.60 ERA) takes the mound for Texas, opposed by Chicago rookie Dylan Cease (2-6, 5.93 ERA). Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). However, he has "settled in" with Texas. He made the 2019 All Star game and while he is winless in his last three outings, he allowed just 12 hits over 17 innings in that span, posting a 2.65 ERA. Chicago's Cease won his MLB debut back on July 3rd but he has lost SIX of seven starts since the All Star break. The 23-year-old has served up at least one HR in each of his eight major-league starts (10 on the season) and issued 21 walks in 44 innings. Cease may be one of the White Sox's prized young arms but the reality is he comes into this contest with a 1-6 record (6.00 ERA) in his last seven starts, up against a veteran pitcher who has held opponents to three ERs or less in 20 of his 26 starts in 2019. I've got Lynn and Texas in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-22-19 | Jaguars v. Dolphins -2.5 | 7-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* NFLX Las Vegas Insider is on the Mia Dolphins at 8:00 ET. The Jacksonville Jaguars have opened NFLX 2019 at 0-2, getting shut out 29-0 at Baltimore in Week 1 and then losing 24-10 at home 24-10 in Week 2 to the Eagles. The Jags have started so poorly at least in part (maybe largely?) due to the fact that head coach Doug Marrone has decided to sit his starters as much as he can this preseason in the hopes his crew will be fresher on Opening Day. In the team's home loss to the Philadelphia, Marrone sat 31 players , including QB Nick Foles. Foles has yet to play this season but he is expected to make his Jaguars debut here. However, for how long? The Dolphins are SIX seconds from opening 2-0, as the Bucs edged Miami 16-14 last Friday night in Tampa, by kicking the game-winning FG with six seconds left on the clock (Bucs won, 16-14). The Dolphins beat the Falcons 34-27 in Week 1 (who doesn't beat Atlanta in the preseason, these days?). Rookie head coach Brian Flores has named Ryan Fitzpatrick as the Dolphins starter for this Week 3 game and that generally means Fitzpatrick will start the team's season opener against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, September 8. However, backup (?) Josh Rosen has stated that he just wants to improve and is not focused on the QB battle. “I’m not focusing on the competition at all,” Rosen said after practice Tuesday. “I obviously care about playing and all this, but in terms of where I stand, I really couldn’t care less about the whole competition. I’m really just trying to be the best that I can be. Fitz is trying to be the best that he can be. We’re trying to help each other. A rising tide raises all ships. Either one of us that proves worthy to rise the tide the most, I guess, will be the guy. But it’s about becoming the best quarterback that you can be. It’s not about just kind of one-upping the guy next to you because that sort of defeats the purpose of being a teammate in the first place.” I believe this sets up an excellent situation here for Miami, as both QBs will be looking to shine. Sure, Foles will see some action for the Jags but why risk him too much? After all, Marrone has seen that neither Minshew nor McCough have shown that they are anywhere near "ready for primetime" the first two weeks. The duo has combined for 63 pass attempts (each has been sacked four times), without a TD pass. Overall, the Jags offense has converted just EIGHT of 28 third-down attempts (28.6%). Miami wins this one going away. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-22-19 | Giants v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 25-23 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 7:00 ET. The New York Giants will play their first road game of the preseason on Thursday when they head to Cincinnati to take on the 1-1 Bengals. The Giants have been a big surprise, scoring 31 points in a nine-point win over the Jets on Aug 8 and then beat the Bears 32-13 last Friday. Eli Manning went 4-of-4 against the Bears for 42 yards and a TD, prized-rookie Daniel Jones has looked comfortable through two preseason games. He went 5-of-5 in Week 1 with a TD and the 11-of-14 for 161 yards in Week 2 and another TD. Is there a QB controversy? Reports say that Eli Manning will be the starting QB in Week 1 of action. With that said, expect Jones to get even more snaps and reps with the first unit this week. The Chiefs overwhelmed the Bengals at KC in Week 1, winning 38-17. However, Cincy rebounded in Week 2, winning 23-13 at Washington last Thursday. No. 1 QB Andy Dalton has thrown exactly nine passes in each of the first two games, completing 14 or 77.8%. However, he does not have a TD pass and has one INT. Rookie QB Ryan Finley was terrific in the win at Washington, completing 20-of-26 for 150 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Dalton should see a little more time here in this Week 3 (dress rehearsal) contest but expect Finley to keep getting significant work. The Giants have overachieved so far the first two weeks and away from home, expect a drop-off. OBJ is in Cleveland plus the team has all sorts of 'holes' in its receiving corps. WRs Corey Coleman is out of the season with a torn ACL, Sterling Shepard will not be playing in the preseason contests after suffering a broken thumb in last Thursday’s drills and Golden Tate is on suspension in four regular season games for taking banned substances that enhance playing performance. This marks Cincy's first home game of the preseason and marks the home debut of rookie head coach Zac Taylor. Note that Finley played at NC State and had just as good a year (arguably slightly better) than Daniel Jones had at Duke. Jones was the sixth overall pick by the Giants, while Finley went in the fourth round (104th overall). Will (can) Finley make a point, here? More importantly, expect a let down for the Giants after scoring 63 points in their first two games, while the Bengals win Taylor's home debut. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-21-19 | Yankees v. A's -112 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Oak A's at 10:07 ET. The Oakland Athletics opened a nine-game homestand last Thursday by taking THREE of four against the AL West-leading Houston Astros. After a Monday "off day," the A's got off to a good start vs another division leader, posting a 6-2 victory over the AL East-leading New York Yankees. Oakland now seeks its SEVENTH victory in its last nine contests when it hosts the Yankees on Wednesday for the middle contest of a three-game series. The 83-44 Yankees own a dominating 10-game lead in their division, while the 72-53 A's find themselves EIGHT games back of the Astros in their division. However, Monday's win pulled Oakland even with Tampa Bay for the AL's second wild-card spot. Tonight's pitching matchup will feature J.A. Happ (10-7, 5.40 ERA) going up against Mike Fiers (11-3, 3.46 ERA). Happ's been a disappointment for New York but did deliver his best performance in nearly a month last Wednesday, allowing two runs on six hits in five innings of a 6-5 victory over Baltimore. Then again, it was against the Orioles! Let's note that his 5.40 ERA is almost 1 1/2 runs higher than his career ERA (4.01) and his .276 BAA is 25 points higher than his lifetime mark (.251). I guess one could point to his 4-1 record and 3.96 ERA in nine starts (teams are 7-2) and two relief appearances against Oakland in his career but one could easily file that under "old news," just as easily. Fiers escaped with a no-decision against Houston last Thursday, after surrendering five runs and six hits (including 4 HRs!) over six innings but the A's would win, 7-6. Fiers will take the mound tonight looking to claim his 10th consecutive winning decision. He is unbeaten in his last 18 starts, a stretch that began with a no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds back on May 7. The A's are 13-4 in those 18 starts, with one suspended game (Qakland led 5-3 at the time). Most impressively, Fiers had allowed three ERs or less in ALL 17 of those starts (had allowed two ERs or less 13 times) , prior to his last outing! Fiers is 9-0 with a 2.40 ERA in 18 starts since throwing that no-hitter vs the Reds. Let me remind everyone here that Fiers was acquired by the A's (from Detroit) in early August of 2018 and Oakland went 8-1 (+$812) in his nine starts. Add that to his 13-8 (+$1,085) moneyline record with the Tigers and Fiers was MLB's top MONEY-MAKER among all starters in 2018 (21-9, +$1,897). He's followed that season with the one I just detailed above, including a 16-9 record in team starts (+$766). Pretty impressive, right? What's more, the A's are an impressive 21-10 at home vs lefties in 2019, averaging 5.5 RPG. That includes a 9-3 (75%) record in night games. Oakland should have little trouble here vs Happ, who hasn't won on the road since June 6 at Toronto (note: Happ owns a 4.31 ERA in six games, including five starts in Oakland). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-21-19 | Angels v. Rangers -123 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Pitching Mismatch Of the Month is on the Tex Rangers at 7:05 ET. The Texas Rangers edged the LA Angels 8-7 (11 inn.) on Monday and then split a doubleheader with them on Tuesday, with a 3-2 win in 11 innings Tuesday night.The team's second straight 11-inning win moved the 62-65 Rangers into a virtual tie with the 63-66 Angels for third place in the AL West but both teams are 19 games back of the Astros. As for any wild card hopes, that 'ship has left port' as well, as both teams are 11 games back of the final spot. At stake is nothing more than this. The Rangers haven't won a series since sweeping Detroit to open August and have not taken a series from a team other than the Tigers since June 21-23 against the Chicago White Sox. Taking the mound tonight will be LA's Patrick Sandoval (0-1, 5.79 ERA), squaring off against the Rangers' Mike Minor (11-7, 2.94 ERA). Sandoval pitched a solid five innings of relief in his MLB debut back on August 5 (2 ERs) but has struggled in back-to-back starts, allowing seven ERs over nine innings (7.00 ERA), with almost as many walks (5), as Ks (7). There was lots of talk that Minor would be moved by the trade deadline but he's still in Arlington. He did see his personal three-game winning streak come to an end Friday against Minnesota, giving up four runs (three earned) in seven innings. However, he's had some season for Texas, allowing three ERs or less in 19 of his 25 starts. Minor recorded his first career shutout with a three-hitter against the Angels back on April 16 and is 3-0 in six career starts vs LA (teams are 4-2), while posting a 2.55 ERA. Minor over Sandoval is a clear "Pitching Mismatch." Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-21-19 | Padres v. Reds -138 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Cin Reds at 12:25 ET. The San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds have opened their three-game series by splitting a pair of 3-2 contests. San Diego won Monday and Cincinnati returned the favor last night. The one-run loss ended the Padres' modest three-game road winning streak, while the Red won for just the THIRD time in their last 10 contests. Each 59-66 team has less than 40 games remaining in their seasons and each sit EIGHT games behind the second wild card spot with FIVE teams ahead of them. The rubber game of the series goes early this afternoon, with the Reds looking to clinch their first season series over the Padres since 2012. Wednesday's pitching matchup will feature Matt Strahm (5-8, 5.21 ERA) and Luis Castillo (11-5, 3.10 ERA). Strahm began the season in the starting rotation, going 3-7 with a 5.42 ERA prior to the All Star break (15 games) but has been used exclusively out of the bullpen since. He hasn't pitched more than two innings in 14 relief appearances since the break and will likely serve as "an opener" in this one. Castillo has already set a career high for wins and boasts a strong 3.10 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and .201 BAA during his All-Star 2019 campaign. However, he was roughed up at home Friday night when he allowed a career-worst eight runs, allowing three HRs among the nine hits he gave up (in just 4.1 innings). Then again, Castillo entered that contest 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in his previous three starts As noted above, Strahm "wont be around long," before turning it over to a San Diego bullpen which owns a 4.68 ERA (19th in MLB) and has a MLB-high 24 blown saves (tied with the Nats). Expect a strong "bounce-back" effort from Castillo, who has allowed three ERs or less in 20 of his 25 starts in 2019 and here at Great American Ball Park, owns a 2.97 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and .195 BAA. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-20-19 | Padres v. Reds -160 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Reds at 7:10 ET. The 59-65 San Diego Padres beat the 58-66 Cincinnati Reds 3-2 last night and the teams meet in the second contest of this three-game series tonight at Great American Ball Park. The Padres have won three straight (all on the road) and are one win shy of matching a season high for consecutive victories on the road. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has now lost SEVEN of its last nine. The season has less than 40 games remaining and both teams are all but out of any serious playoff consideration, as San Diego is SEVEN games back and Cincinnati EIGHT games back of the NL's final wild card spot. On the mound tonight will be San Diego's Cal Quantrill (6-3, 3.23 ERA) and Cincy's Sonny Gray (8-6, 2.98 ERA). Quantrill is having an impressive rookie season. This marks his 18th appearance, and his 13th start. The 24-year-old has lost just ONCE in his last 14 outings (nine starts). His MLB debut was May 1 and the Padres lost his first three starts (Quantrill was 0-2), posting a 5.40 ERA. However, in the above-mentioned span, he's shaved more than TWO runs off his ERA. He owns a 61-19 KW ratio, 1.12 WHIP and .230 BAA on the season. As for Cincy's Gray, he's pitched MUCH better than his won-loss record reflects. He's allowed two ERs or less in SIX of seven starts since his All-Star appearance (Reds are 6-1) and going back over his last 16 starts, he is 8-2 and the Reds have gone 13-3. That's quite a turnaround from him going 0-4 with a 4.15 ERA over his first NINE starts of 2019 (Reds were 3-6). As noted, Quantrill has been impressive but Gray is on quite a roll. He's allowed just 98 hits in his 132.2 innings this season, posting a 154-50 KW ratio. That gives him a 1.12 WHIP and he boasts a .206 batting average against. He enters tonight's game 5-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last nine outings (Reds are 7-2). Gray gets the Reds "even" in this series. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
08-20-19 | Phillies v. Red Sox -111 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Red Sox at 7:10 ET. The Boston Red Sox welcome the Philadelphia Phillies to Fenway for a two-game IL series tonight. Boston currently owns MLB's longest-active winning streak (a modest five in a row) but at 67-59, find themselves a WHOPPING 16 games back of the hated-Yankees in the AL East. There are still 36 games left in Boston's season, so at least the Red Sox can hope (dream?) about a wild card berth. Boston is SIX games back of that second AL card spot. The Phillies are coming off Saturday and Sunday home losses to the Padres leaving them 64-60. Their division hopes are fading VERY quickly, as Philadelphia is NINE games back of Atlanta in the NL East. However, the disappointing Philies (along with the Mets), are just TWO games back of the Cubs for the NL's second wild card spot. Tuesday's pitching matchup will be Philly's Aaron Nola (11-3, 3.56 ERA) and Boston lefty Brian Johnson (1-1, 6.45 ERA). Nola was Philly's Opening Day starter, coming off a 17-6 (2.37 ERA) season in which the Phils went 22-11 in his starts, giving him MLB's 12th-best moneyline mark of +$983. He enters this contest 11-3 in 26 starts on the season (team is 17-9 but a modest plus-$385), although he's lost just ONE decision since June 21. He's 5-1 over his last 10 starts (team is 8-2), allowing one ER or less in SEVEN of those 10 starts. Johnson takes the mound tonight in place of Chris Sale, who reportedly received positive news on Monday after his meeting with Dr. James Andrews confirmed a previous diagnosis of inflammation on his ailing left elbow. Johnson last pitched Wednesday, when he allowed one unearned run on three hits in 2 .2 innings of a no-decision at Cleveland (Red Sox won, 5-1). This marks his 11th appearance of 2019 (sixth start). One can easily make the argument that Phily owns a pitching edge here with Nola over Johnson but note that Nola's road ERA (4.63) is more than 1 1/2 runs higher than his home ERA (2.94). Nola will take the mound against a Boston lineup which has scored 38 runs during its five-game winning streak (7.6 per) and one which has averaged 6.05 RPG in Fenway this season. Yes, Johnson is hardly a quality starter, but the lefty faces a Philly lineup which has gone just 5-15 against left-handed starers on the road in 2019 (that's a 71% "go-against), while averaging a WOEFUL 3.4 RPG. Boston makes it SIX straight wins, tonight! Good luck...Larry |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,056 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Ricky Tran | $501 |
Dan Kaiser | $445 |
Sean Murphy | $296 |
Jimmy Boyd | $286 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Ray Monohan | $36 |