Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-26-19 | Miami-FL v. Pittsburgh -5 | Top | 16-12 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 56 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Pittsburgh at 12:00 ET. Many thought that Miami's 17-9 win over then-No. 20 Virginia on Oct 11 was a "turning" point in the 'Canes season but just eight days later, Miami lost 28-21 (in OT) at home to Ga Tech as an 18-point favorite. That's the same Ga Tech team that lost at home (as a four-TD favorite) to The Citadel on Sep 14, an FCS team. The Hurricanes visit Pittsburgh on Saturday to face a surging Panthers team which has rebounded from a season-opening 30-14 home loss to Virginia. Pitt has won FIVE of six since that defeat, falling only 17-10 at Penn St (as a 17-point dog), which is currently the AP's No. 6 team. Pitt has won FOUR in a row since the Penn St loss, going 3-1 ATS.The home team has won THREE straight in this series, after the visitor had won FIVE in a row. Manny Diaz may be in his first season as Miami's head coach but he already finds himself on the proverbial "hot seat," after last weekend's 28-21 overtime loss to a Georgia Tech. "I’ll take the negativity. I’m responsible for it, and I’ll accept it,” Diaz said Monday in a press conference. "And it sucks that we’re having to go through this. No one’s more disappointed in our record than I am. But I am also as confident as ever that this team will continue to stick together and this team will continue to fight for one another. And the results are going to come." QB Perry completed 16-of-28 passes for 188 yards and two TDs to go along with a rushing score last Saturday but both he and freshman Jarren Williams, who beat out Perry for the starting job in fall camp, are nursing shoulder injuries and it's uncertain who will start Saturday. The passing game is NOT Miami's biggest concern, as the two QBs have combined to average 279.6 YPG through the air (29th). However, the running games adds little help, averaging 131.0 YPG (102nd) on 4.1 YPC. The defensive numbers look good (20.4 PPG ranks 29th and 298.3 YPG ranks 19th) but the bottom line is that Minmi is 3-4 overall, including 1-3 in the ACC. Meanwhile, Pitt is 2-1 in the ACC Coastal, trailing only 3-1 Virginia. The head-to-head loss to the Cavs could cost Pitt in the end but the Panthers have set their sights on a second straight Atlantic Coast Conference Coastal Division title. Pitt upset UCF 35-34 (as a 9-point home dog) back on Sep 21 plus its last two games has won ACC contests 33-30 over Duke and 27-0 over Syracuse, BOTH on the road! Pittsburgh raised its FBS-best sack total to 36 with nine against Syracuse, while QB Kenny Pickett passed for 232 yards and two touchdowns in last Friday's 27-20 win. Like Miami, Pitt has moved the ball through the air (270.3 YPG ranks 36th) but Pitt's running game is even worse than Miami's, averaging 120.6 YPG (109th) on just 3.4 YPC. Pitt's D pretty much matches Miami's, allowing 22.1 PPG (41st) on 302.9 YPG (21st). A victory over the Hurricanes would give Pitt five consecutive wins for the first time since 2009, when Dave Wannstedt's Panthers reeled off six straight. As for Miami, it is proving just as unreliable for Manny Diaz as it was for Mark Richt (FYI...Diaz served on Richt's staff). I noted above that Pitt won the ACC Coastal title last season but will add that the Panthers will NOT forget the 'Canes trouncing them 24-3 in Miami on Nov 24. That was Pitt's final game of the regular season and it came AFTER Pitt had already clinched a spot in the ACC championship game. The last time Miami visited Pittsburgh (in 2017's regular-season finale), it was ranked No. 2 in the country but lost 24-14 in Pickett's first start. Pittsburgh is a team in which the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, while with Miami, it's just the opposite. Pitt has lost to Penn St just 17-10 (Nittany Lions are averaging 40.0 PPG) and beat UCF, ending that team's 27-game regular season winning streak. It's Homecoming for Pitt and I expect the Panthers to roll. Lay it. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-25-19 | Jazz v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 16 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers at 10:35 ET. The Jazz are playing in the 'loaded' Western Conference but Quin Snyder has led the team to THREE straight playoff appearances, winning 51, 48 and 50 games. Reports are that the Jazz have signed him to a long-term contract extension and it's well-deserving. Many think this could be the best team Snyder has put on the court. The Jazz opened the season with an unimpressive 100-95 victory over the now-depleted OKC Thunder and tonight will visit Staples Center to take on the Lakers. The Lakers were outclassed by the Clippers on Tuesday night (many teams will be this season), losing 112-102. Utah's star shooting guard Donovan Mitchell scored 32 points on 14-of-22 shooting and collected a career-best 12 rebounds in Wednesday's win. Mitchell became the fourth different player in Utah history to have at least 30 points and 10 rebounds in a season opener, joining Hall of Famers Karl Malone (four times) and Adrian Dantley ,as well as Carlos Boozer. However, the team's new PG, Mike Conley, suffered through a horrific 1-of-16 shooting performance while scoring five points in his team debut. Some good news was that Bojan Bogdanovic, another key off-season addition, scored 16 points in 24 minutes, despite missing part of the game after twisting his left ankle. The Lakers jumped out to a 13-2 lead over the Clippers on Tuesday night but were quickly caught. However, a 15-0 run in the third quarter put the Lakers ahead but they folded down the stretch, getting outscored 27-17 in the 4th quarter. Davis had 25 points and 10 rebounds in his LA debut, while LBJ added 18 points, nine rebounds and eight assists (shot just 7 of 19). The surprising star was guard Danny Green, who has 28 points on 10-14 shooting (including 7 of 9 on threes). There's been a lot of hype with A.D. joining LBJ in LA but it's fair to say the jury is still out on the Lakers (Kuzma returning will give us a better idea). That said, the Jazz were a 50-win team last season, while the Lakers won just 37 games. Still, the Lakers beat the Jazz in both games played at Staples, one with LBJ and one without. The Lakers have to be a little bit 'pissed' at losing Tuesday's game vs the Clippers (and Kawhi), so I think the Jazz are in the WRONG place at the WRONG time! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-25-19 | Astros -135 v. Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Game of the Year is on the Hou Astros at 8:07 ET. The Washington Nationals, who were just 19-31 after their first 50 games of the 2019 season, are now just TWO wins away from the franchise's FIRST-EVER World Series title. The Nats have stunned just about everyone (maybe not themselves) by winning the first two games of the World Series in Houston and can now take a commanding 3-0 lead when they host the Astros on Friday. Washington became the 26th team to win Games 1 and 2 on the road in a best-of-seven series under the 2-3-2 format and only three clubs, the last being the 1996 Atlanta Braves in the World Series, have lost. Houston was a prohibitive favorite to win its second World Series title in three seasons instead finds itself in a virtual MUST-WIN in the first World Series game played in the nation's capital since 1933. The Game 3 pitching matchup will be Zach Greinke and Anibal Sanchez. Greinke went 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 regular-season starts (Houston was 8-2) with the Astros after being acquired from Arizona at the trade deadline. However, he lost his first two postseason outings at Tampa Bay in the ALDS and against the Yankees in Game 1 of the ALCS, allowing 12 hits and nine ERS over just 9.2 innings for an 8.38 ERA. He started Game 4 of the ASLCS as well, with the Astros winning 8-3 but he was far from sharp. He allowed just one run but three hits and four walks with five strikeouts and was pulled after 4.1 innings. Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he signed a two-year deal in the off-season with Washington. Sanchez opened 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA through nine starts (team was 3-6). He suffered a left hamstring strain in May that cost him 10 days on the injured list and he missed one start. However, he returned to the rotation to help fuel Washington's surge after the team went 19-31 in its first 50 games. Sanchez would go 8-0 with a 3.21 ERA over a 16-start unbeaten stretch from May 29 through Aug 30 (he allowed three ERs or less in 13 of those 16 starts with the Nats going 11-5) but then faltered in his first two starts of Sep. He lost 8-4 at home to the Mets and then 5-0 at Minnesota (6.75 ERA), before winning his final three regular season starts (2.37 ERA). Sanchez pitched well in Game 3 vs the Dodgers (5 IP / 1 ER / 9 Ks), leaving with a 2-1 lead after five innings but watched Patrick Corbin and the bullpen allow SEVEN runs in the sixth inning of a 10-4LA win. However, Sanchez was just FOUR outs away from a no-hitter in Game 1 of the NLCS, when Jose Martinez singled. He did get the win in a 2-0 Nats victory. The problem is, Sanchez has NOT pitched, since Oct 11. It's easy right now to argue that this is Washington's time but I will NOT sell the Astros short, just yet. Houston is in the World Series for the second time in three seasons and the team's road play has been a big reason for that. Houston is a MLB-best 157-86 (.646) on the road from 2017-19! As for Greinke, he's an "ace" and while he hasn't shown it yet in this postseason, it's my bet he comes through here for Houston. He has dominated the Nationals in his career, going 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA over nine starts (teams are 7-2). The latest meeting came at Washington on June 13 when Greinke was a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. He gave up just two hits over 7.1 scoreless innings as Arizona earned a 5-0 victory. The Astros ain't 'dead' just yet! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-25-19 | Raptors v. Celtics -3 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference Game of the Month is on the Bos Celtics at 7:05 ET. The Boston Celtics opened the 2018-19 season by 'aying an egg' at Philly on Wednesday, losing 107-93. All five Philly starters scored in double digits, while the Celtics shot 36.7% as a team (including 26.9% on threes), with newcomer Kemba Walker scoring 12 points on 4-of-18 shooting. The Raptors began their title defense with a 130-122 overtime win against New Orleans on Tuesday at home. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet scored 34 points apiece as Toronto had a successful first step in its post-Kawhi Leonard era. However, the Raptors never came close to putting away the Pelicans (playing with Zion and MANY new players). VanVleet started just 28 games during Toronto's title run after coming off the bench exclusively in his first two seasons but he figures to be a catalyst for the starting five and showed his readiness in the opener by shooting 12-for-18 from the floor and dishing out a team-high seven assists (34 points were a career-high). Siakam's effort was no surprise, as he was the NBA's Most Improved Player in the regular season and averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. Toronto played with a short bench on Tuesday, as just eight players got "PT." The Celtics were favorites to win the East a year ago but struggled to find the right chemistry in a 49-win campaign. Boston swept the Pacers but after shocking the Bucks in Game 1 of a second-round series in Milwaukee, lost FOUR straight by an average of 16.3 PPG. Kemba Walker was a HUGE pick up (he sought a winning environment after eight seasons mostly under .500 with Charlotte) and joins an excellent trio of frontcourt players in Tatum, Brown and Haywood. Tatum is the top returning scorer at 15.7 PPG and Jaylen Brown (14.5 & 13.0 PPG the last two seasons) is now VERY happy after signing a $115 million extension. A big season is expected out of former All-Star Gordon Hayward, who endured an up-and-down 2018-19 after losing nearly all of the previous season with a leg injury (note: Hayward shot 55.1 percent from the floor following the All-Star break after shooting 43.8 percent before it). However, Walker 'flopped' in his Boston debut (see above) and while Jayson Tatum scored 21, he was only 8-of-22 from the floor, including 4-of-14 inside the arc. The bright spot in the opener was the play of forward Gordon Hayward. He averaged just 11.5 PPG in primarily coming off the bench in 2018-19, his first season back from a devastating leg injury sustained during his first game as a Celtic in 2017. However, back in the starting rotation, Hayward scored 25 on Wednesday to pace the team, ahead of Tatum's 21. Boston couldn’t handle Phiily's frontcourt of Embiid-Horford and Harris plus Simmons added a line of 24-8-9. However, expect a bounce-back here at the TD Garden. The Raptors were VERY lucky to cover on "Ring Night," despite a career-high from VanVleet and a monster game from Siakam. The Raptors can't count on similar efforts here, as the Celtics make their home debut. Conversely, look for Walker to put his Wednesday effort behind him in front of his new home crowd. Boston owns FIVE straight home wins over Toronto, going 4-1 ATS. This is Boston's night! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors +2.5 | Top | 141-122 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the GS Warriors at 10:35 ET. The Golden St Warriors have reached the NBA Finals in each of the last five seasons, winning the title three times. However, for the first time since the 2014-15 Warriors won the title, Golden State will enter a regular season without being the favorites in the Western Conference. The Warriors lost Kevin Durant to free agency after falling to the Toronto Raptors in the NBA Finals last spring and are also expected to spend most (all?) of season without All-Star guard Klay Thompson. Also, a key contributor to those championship teams, Andre Iquodala, is playing in Memphis. The Warriors played three times at their new San Francisco-based home in the preseason but tonight's contest against the LA Clippers will be the first regular season game played at Chase Center. The Clippers remade the top of their roster with the additions of Kawhi Leonard and Paul George in the off-season, although George is not ready to play, as he continues to rehab from shoulder surgery. Without George, the Clippers relied on Leonard and their talented bench to beat the Lakers 112-102 in their season-opener Tuesday night. Kawhi had 30 points (only starter in double digits) and each of the four reserves used scored in double figures, totaling 60 points. Veteran sixth man Lou Williams led the "Bench Brigade" with 21 points on 8-of-14 shooting, while Harrell added 17 (he averaged 16.6 & 6.5 in 26 minutes LY). The Clippers withstood an opening 13-2 run by the Lakers and later a 15-0 run, by holding the Lakers to 17 points in the final quarter of the 10-point win. As noted above, Durant and Iquodala have moved on and Thompson is sidelined. However, head coach Steve Kerr has new additions D'Angelo Russell (formerly with Brooklyn), Glenn Robinson III (Detroit Pistons) and Marquese Chriss (Cleveland Cavaliers). Of course, Curry is the leader and as Kerr stated, "It's the perfect time physically and mentally where everything's come together," Kerr old reporters of Curry during training camp. "He's in his prime age-wise, strength and conditioning-wise and defensively he's seen everything that's come his way. Teams have played him every possible way that you could think of, and he's had years now to work on counters. So, he's kind of in his sweet spot right now, and he has been the last couple years. And hopefully that continues for the next few years. But he's an amazing player." Then there is the ever-aggressive Draymond Green, who is one of the few defenders that has the capability to slow down Kawhi. Clippers are off the 'high' of beating the Lakers on Tuesday, while for the first time since 2/20/14, the Warriors are a home dog. They beat the Rockets 102-99 (OT) in that one at plus-1.5. No OT needed here, as the Warriors grab the win. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-24-19 | Panthers v. Flames -123 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cal Flames at 9:00 ET. The 4-2-3 Florida Panthers have recorded at least a point in SIX straight contests and look to continue their run when they visit the 5-5-1 Calgary Flames on Thursday night to open a four-game western road trip. The Panthers are 3-0-3 during their streak, after winning at Nashville in a shootout Saturday and holding off Pittsburgh for a 4-2 triumph Tuesday. Calgary has yet to win more than two straight or lose more than two in a row in the first 11 games, after dropping a 5-3 decision against Washington on Tuesday at home. The Panthers have missed the playoffs in each of the last three seasons, which isn't exactly news. They have made the postseason just TWICE in 18 seasons. Florida is well aware a team can kill its chances with a poor opening month and the Panthers are hoping to carry their positive mojo into this four-game road trip. Jonathan Huberdeau leads the team with 10 points (goals) after matching fellow forward Denis Malgin (six points) with a goal and an assist Saturday against Pittsburgh. Sergei Bobrovsky made 23 saves against the Pens and is expected to be in net again, tonight. The Flames are coming off a 5-3 loss to the visiting Washington Capitals on Tuesday, a game in which they could very well have won but were done in by costly, ill-timed defensive lapses. Their bugaboo this season has been surrendering goals early in periods and quickly after they score. Left wing Johnny Gaudreau (three goals) notched an assist against Washington to take over the team lead with nine points. Gaudreau’s linemate Elias Lindholm recorded his team-best sixth goal in the setback. No. 1 goalie David Rittich (4-3-1) sat out the loss against the Capitals but is expected back between the pipes Thursday. The Flames are not a good team right now but let's NOT forget that the Flames' 107 points topped EVERY team in the Western Conference last season. A solid winning streak can make the team's current inconsistent play a distant memory. Looking more closely at tonight's starting goalies, Florida's Bobrovsky is a modest 3-2-2 with a 3.75 GAA and .878 SP. Those numbers pale in comparison to him averaging of 38 wins per season the last three years, posting GAA between 2.06-to-2.58 with SP of .913-to-.931. As for Rittich, he's 4-3-1 with a 2.85 GAA and .912, very similar to his 27-9-5 record last season (2.61 ERA & .911 SP). When he's on, he's on. He's allowed a total of just four goals in his wins and 18 in the other four contests. My bet says he's ON! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-23-19 | Celtics v. 76ers -5 | Top | 93-107 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Phi 76ers at 7:35 ET. Philadelphia watched Kawhi Leonard's shot bounce multiple times off the rim and then through the basket to eliminate them in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference semifinals in May. The Sixers then had to regroup and rebuild their roster, after losing Jimmy Butlerto the Heat and JJ Redick to the Pelicans. Philly got guard Josh Richardson from Miami in the Butler deal but the team's key acquisition was getting Al Horford to leave key rival Boston and sign with the 76ers. That duo joins All-Star center Joel Embiid and all-around standout Ben Simmons. The Celtics not only lost Horford but also lost Kyrie Irving to Brooklyn. The good news is that Boston added Kemba Walker from Charlotte, who averaged a career-high 25.6 PPG with the Hornets last season. The Celtics were favorites to win the East a year ago but struggled to find the right chemistry in a 49-win campaign. Boston swept the Pacers but after shocking the Bucks in Game 1 of a second-round series in Milwaukee, lost FOUR straight by an average of 16.3 PPG. Kemba Walker was a HUGE pick up (he sought a winning environment after eight seasons mostly under .500 with Charlotte) and joins an excellent trio of frontcourt players in Tatum, Brown and Haywood. Tatum is the top returning scorer at 15.7 PPG and Jaylen Brown (14.5 & 13.0 PPG the last two seasons) is now VERY happy after signing a $115 million extension. A big season is expected out of former All-Star Gordon Hayward, who endured an up-and-down 2018-19 after losing nearly all of the previous season with a leg injury (note: Hayward shot 55.1 percent from the floor following the All-Star break after shooting 43.8 percent before it). Embiid ranked fourth in the NBA in scoring (27.5), second in rebounding (13.6) and sixth in blocks (1.9) while playing a career-high 64 games last season. He'll anchor the mammoth front line with Horford and 6-9 Tobias Harris, who averaged a career-high 20 points in 2018-19. The 6-10 Simmons (16.9-8.8-7.7) was one of three players in the league to record at least 10 triple-doubles. Also, don't dismiss the addition of Josh Richardson, who will replace J.J. Redick. He averaged a career-high 16.6 PPG with Miami last season. Boston has had Philly’s number the past couple of years and won another three of four last season (7-2 SU & 8-1 ATS the last nine meetings) bu t 'Sixer-killer' Kyrie Irving has moved on to Brooklyn, while Al Horford is now in a Philadelphia uniform. His versatility and ability to spell Joel Embiid should be big for Philly this coming season. I expect the 76ers to make a statement with a 'comfortable' win (meaning cover) against their recent nemesis. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-23-19 | Wolves v. Nets -3.5 | Top | 127-126 | Loss | -102 | 9 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Brk Nets at 7:35 ET. Kyrie Irving's time in Boston did not play out as planned, but he has hit the reset button in Brooklyn. Irving will eventually be joined on the floor by superstar Kevin Durant but that is not likely to happen until next season *Durant is recovering from an Achilles injury). Irving will make his regular-season debut for the Nets on Wednesday against the visiting Minnesota Timberwolves. Minnesota made its first playoff appearance in 14 years in 2017-18 by going 47-35 but the Timberwolves took a step back in 2018-19, falling to 36-46. In contrast, the Nets went 42-20 last season, making the postseason for the first time 2015. Brooklyn shocked the 76ers in Game 1 of their first round series but then lost FOUR in a row. The T-wolves revolve around star centers Karl-Anthony Towns, who averaged 24.4 PPG and a career-high 12.4 RPG last season. Minnesota struck out in its pursuit of any big name acquisitions this off-season, but it filled some holes around Towns with the additions of forwards Jordan Bell, Noah Vonleh and Jake Layman. I hardly see that as being enough. A healthy Jeff Teague will help but while Andrew Wiggins averaged 18.1 PPG last season, he shot a career-low 41.2 percent from the floor (has he proved worthy of being the No. 1 overall pick of the 2014 draft?). Irving will join fellow guards Spencer Dinwiddie (16.8 & 4.6 APG) and Caris LeVert (13.7). Throw in Joe Harris (13.7), who led the NBA in three-point percentage (47.4) in 2018-19 and the Nets own a talented backcourt. Forward Taurean Prince was brought in from Atlanta after averaging 13.5 points a season ago and given a two-year extension worth $29 million this week. Center Jarrett Allen took a big step in his second season, averaging 10.9 & 8.4 while shooting 59 percent from the floor (tied for seventh in the NBA). Obviously, the Nets become a lot more interesting whenever Kevin Durant suits up, but look at what head coach Kenny Atkinson did last season. The Nets were just 8-18 through Dec 5, before winning 19 of 24 games to reach 27-23 through Jan 25. The Nets finished 42-40 and I expect them to be better this season. As for the T-wolves, NOT so much. Minnesota was one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA last season (allowed 114.0 PPG) and went a pathetic 11-30 SU on the road. Kyrie wins his Brooklyn debut, "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-23-19 | Pistons v. Pacers -7.5 | Top | 119-110 | Loss | -101 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Ind Pacers at 7:05 ET. The Detroit Pistons under-performed relative to their own expectations last season, finishing 41-41. Detroit was then swept out of the playoffs by the Bucks in four games, getting outscored by an average margin of 23.8 PPG. The Pistons are hoping that the team's "Big Three," PF Blake Griffin (24-7.5-5.4), C Andre Drummond (17.3 & 15.6) and PG Reggie Jackson (15.4 & 4.2 APG) will develop more chemistry but health will play a big factor (more in a bit). The Indiana Pacers flew under the radar last season and battled for the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference before settling for the No. 5 seed, finishing 48-34 for the second straight season. However, like the Pistons, the Pacers and bowing out in the first round of the playoffs by getting swept by the Celtics. The Detroit Pistons have a new head coach in Dwane Casey but he's hardly new to the NBA, as he won the 2017-18 Coach of the Year award with the Toronto Raptors. Six-time All-Star Blake Griffin will miss the start of the season due to hamstring and knee soreness. It's likely he will miss several games, with the team saying he will be reevaluated in the first week of November. PG Jackson and newly forward Markieff Morris are both listed day-to-day with nagging injuries. Detroit also added former MVP Derrick Rose but we all know his injury history. The loss of All-Star Paul George in the 2017 off-season elicited preseason projections of an Indiana team near the basement of the Central division but the emergence of swingman Victor Oladipo as an All-Star powered the Pacers to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference in 2017-18, a feat they duplicated last year. Oladipo averaged 23.1-5.2-4.3 two seasons ago and then 18.8-5.6-5.2 last season, before going down witha season-ending knee injury. He is practicing with the team and has raised his activity level to five-on-five scrimmages but there is still no timetable for his retur. His absence will hurt a little less due to a pair of shrewd off-season additions, Malcolm Brogdon (Milwaukee), Jeremy Lamb (Charlotte) and TJ Warren. Brogdon has averaged 12.8 PPG on 40.8% shooting on threes in his three seasons with Milwaukee, Lamb averaged a career-high 15.3 PPG with Charlotte last season and Warren has posted averages of 19.6 and 18.0 PPG the last two years with Phoenix. The Pacers also own an excellent interior duo of center Myles Turner (13.3 & 7.2 plus an NBA-best 2.7 blocked shots per game) and forward Domantas Sabonis, who made considerable career strides in 2018-19.He averaged 14.1 & 9.3 rebounds (he just signed a four-year, $77 million extension on Monday). The Pacers are a solid team (were 32-15 before Oladipo went down) and have made some excellent off-season moves. Griffin has been a career underachiever who always seems to get injured (no different to start this season). The Pacers won THREE of four meetings last season, with those three victories coming by an average margin of 21.7 PPG. Lay the modest points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-22-19 | Pelicans v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 122-130 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Season-Opening Tip-Off is on the Tor Raptors at 8:05 ET. The Toronto Raptors are the defending NBA champions and help tip-off the 2019/20 NBA season by hosting the New Orleans Pelicans. However, the game has lost some luster, as not only is Kawhi Leonard now a Clipper but the No. 1 pick of the 2019 NBA Draft, Zion Williamson, is expected to be sidelined for the first month of the season. Of course, A.D. was traded by the Pelicans to the Lakers plusJulius Randle (who averaged a career-high 21.4 PPG with the Pelicans last season) signed with the Knicks. TNT knew about the trades/moves but can't too happy at Zion Williamson’s preseason knee injury. New Orleans will have FOUR new starters once Williamson returns, with PG Lonzo Ball and SF Brandon Ingram joining the team in the deal for Davis and center Derrick Favors coming over via trade from the Utah Jazz. The lone holdover is guard Jrue Holiday (21.2-5.0-7.7), He's the best player in a crowded backcourt rotation that includes newcomers Josh Hart and JJ Redick along with holdovers Frank Jackson and E'Twaun Moore and rookie Nickiel Alexander-Walker. Head coach Alvin Gentry will have a heard time finding time for everyone and naturally, he can't wait for Zion to return. "It's just a situation where some nights, guys just aren't going to play," Gentry told reporters. "For us to be a really good team, you are going to have to accept that, with the understanding some nights the other guys are going to play. There's just no getting around it. We do have a lot of players who are very similar skill-wise who are multiple position guys." Danny Green (outstanding defender and three-point shooter) is also in LA with Kawhi, although he's playing for the Lakers. The good news is that head coach Nick Nurse has a familiar cast still around. Siakam (was the NBA's Most Improved Player and averaged 19.0 & 7.1 in the postseason. PG Kyle Lowry has been an All-Star each of the last five seasons and many believe that Marc Gasol was a trade-deadline acquisition whom the Raptors wouldn't have won the title without. He'll be asked to score more with Kawhi gone but don't forget that he is also a former Defensive Player of the Year. Guard Fred VanVleet shot 40% on threes while averaging 14.0 PPG in the Finals and most believe Serge Ibaka has plenty left (he's not an "old 30."). The Pelicans are still "finding their way," while the Raptors will be out to prove that they can win without Kawhi. Raising the banner and handing out rings is typically a distraction but in this case I expect "We The North" to provide an electric atmosphere for tonight's contest. Toronto was a dominating 32-9 SU at home last season and has won SEVEN of its last eight meetings with New Orleans, which is now with A.D. & Randle, plus will have to wait awhile before Zion is ready. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-22-19 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -160 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Bos Bruins at 7:00 ET. The Bruins (107 points) and Maple Leafs (100 points) met in the first round of last year's playoffs, with Boston advancing by winning Game 6 in Toronto (4-2) and Game 7 at home, 5-1. It was the Bruins' second straight Game 7 win over the Maple Leafs and third in three playoff matchups between the teams. Boston previously knocked Toronto out of the postseason with Game 7 victories in 2018 and 2013. The Maple Leafs lost their SIXTH straight Game 7 on the road. The two "Original Six" both have 12 points in the early going of the current season, although Boston (5-1-2) has played two fewer games than Toronto (5-3-2). The teams met for the first time this season this past Saturday, with the Maple Leafs winning 4-3 in OT. The Bruins have been idle since Saturday, while the Maple Leafs will be playing the second contest of a back-to-back set after dropping a 4-3 decision to visiting Columbus on Monday in OT. Toronto's loss to Columbus was just its second in its past five games and came in unlikely fashion. Mitchell Marner (team-high 12 points) was called for a hooking penalty on a breakaway at 1:57 of overtime, allowing Gustav Nyquist to score on a penalty shot and seal the victory for the Blue Jackets. Auston Matthews scored his eighth goal of the season and added an assist in the defeat, and is tied with defenseman Morgan Rielly (2 G / 9 A) behind Marner with 11 points. Boston's No. 1 line of Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron is again leading the way for the Bruins with a combined 35 points. Pastrnak has nine goals and six assists, Marchand has four goals and eight assists and Bergeron has two goals and six assists. This is a GREAT spot for Boston. The Bruins have dropped two straight, falling in a shootout to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday before a 4-3 defeat in overtime against the Maple Leafs in Toronto on Saturday. Boston has not played since, while the Maple Leafs ate playing for the second straight night. Toronto head coach Mike Babcock opted to go with No. 1 netminder Frederik Andersen vs Columbus last night, meaning he will start backup Michael Hutchinson against the Bruins (??). Hutchinson, a Bruins draft pick in 2008, has allowed NINE goals in two starts this season. As for the Bruins, Tuukka Rask will return to the Bruins' net for this contest (Halak played in Saturday's loss at Toronto). Rask is 3-0-1 (1.72 GAA & .946 SP) this season and 17-7-2 with a 2.13 GAA in 29 appearances against Toronto. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets +10 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Game of the Month is on the NY Jets at 8:15 ET. There are just two unbeaten teams in NFL 2019 and one is the surprising 6-0 San Francisco 49ers. The other is NO surprise, as it's the 6-0 New England Patriots. The Pats visit the 1-4 NY Jets for Week 7's MNF contest, having suffocated the Jets 30-14 back on Sep 22. The Pats D, which is No. 1 in points allowed (8.0), while ranking second in total yards allowed (234.7 YPG), passing yards allowed (161.0 YPG) and rushing yards allowed (73.7 YPG), held the Jets to only 105 total yards back in Week 3, giving New England a SEVENTH straight win in the series. New York was forced to go with third-string QB Luke Falk it that first meeting. However, the Jets have to feel more confident this time around, as starting QB Sam Darnold is back in the lineup (more later).. The ageless Tom Brady is completing 65.4% for 1,743 yards with 10 TDs and three INTs (97.5 QB rating). Despite little help from his running game (Pats rank 20th with 101.5 YPG rushing on just 3.5 YPC), Brday has led New England's offense to an average of 31.7 PPG, tops in the NFL. I note New England's overall defense at the top but will add here that the Pats also rank second to Carolina with 25 sacks! Another HUGE reason the New Enfgland D is so stingy is that the Pats have held teams to an NFL-low 10 of 73 (13.7 percent) conversion rate on third down. The fewest third downs allowed in a 16-game season is 49 by the 1991 New Orleans Saints (the Pats are on pace to allow just 26, but can't be expected to keep up that pace, right?). The Jets opened the season by taking a 16-0 lead over the Bills in Week 1, only to lose that game 17-16. Making matters worse, Sam Darnold missed the next three games due to mononucleosis, as the Jets would lose all three, while scoring a total of just 23 points. However, Darnold returned in Week 6 and led New York to its first victory of 2019, passing for 338 yards and two TDs in a 24-22 victory over visiting Dallas. RB Bell finally scored his first rushing TD last week but he's run for only 256 yards on 3.0 YPC on the season. However, he is tied for the team-lead with 28 catches. WRs Crowder (28 catches) and Anderson (16 catches for 16.0 YPC) were both thrilled to see Darnold's return. Crowder had six catches for 98 yards vs Dallas, while Anderson had five catches for 125! Getting back to Bell, the return of Darnold should "open things up" for one of the NFL's best RBs going back to 2014. OK, Brady is 28-6 against the Jets in the regular season during his career but it should be noted Brady has been intercepted in each of his last THREE games and has failed to throw a TD pass in TWO of them. Brady and the New England offense have not exactly been hitting on all cylinders as of late and let me add that Bill Belichick has often had problems at MetLife, where Pats have covered just ONE of their last six vs Jets. With Darnold back and some renewed confidence, this Monday Night home dog should 'bark' LOUDLY! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-21-19 | Avalanche v. Blues -129 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the StL Blues at 8:00 ET. The Colorado Avalanche qualified for last year's postseason as the West's no. 8 seed but then upset the top-seeded Calgary Flames in the first round (4-1). The Avs then extended their second-round series with the Sharks to seven games, before losing. However, the Avs visit St Louis tonight with a 7-0-1 record, as the NHL’s ONLY team without a loss in regulation time. The Avalanche allowed 46 shots on Saturday but received a hat trick from Tyson Jost and took advantage of their opportunities in a 6-2 victory at Tampa Bay, setting a club record for most points through eight games (15). The St Louis Blues are the reigning Stanley Cup champion and were able to open the current with a four-game point streak. However, the Blues have lost FOUR straight (0-2-2), after giving up three unanswered goals in the second period of Saturday’s 5-2 home setback against Montreal. The addition of more scoring options up front has been one of the keys to the early-season surge by the Avs and the third line of Jost, J.T. Compher and Colin Wilson came up big Saturday with a total of eight points. However, Colorado's No. 1 line is a match for any other team's. Center Nathan MacKinnon (41 goals / 99 points) is surrounded by wings Gabriel Landeskog (34 goals / 75 points) and Mikko Rantanen (31 goals / 87 points). Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky were acquired from Toronto and Washington, respectively plus fellow forward Joonas Donskoi signed as a free agent to provide an added jolt to Colorado's offense. The No. 1 unit of MacKinnon, Rantanen and captain Landeskog has already combined for 22 points. No. 1 goalie Gribauer is 5-0-1 (2.79 GAA & .919) and backup Francouz is 2-0-0 (1.95 GAA & .951 SP). Center Brayden Schenn leads the Blues in goals (five) and points (eight), while David Perron scored his fourth goal in Saturday’s loss (has six points) and is four points shy of 500 for his career. Vladimir Tarasenko (seven points) has notched at least one point in four straight games and Jaden Schwartz also has a four-game point streak going, after scoring his first goal on Saturday (six points, as well). Goalie Jordan Binnington was a star for the Blues in last year's run to the Cup and he's expected back in net after being rested on Saturday. Binnington (2-1-3, 2.93 GAA & .909 SP) is 0-1-2 in his last three games, after earning at least one point while giving up a modest seven goals in his first three starts. The Avs won at Tampa Bay (last year's top team in the regular season, by far) but did allow 46 shots on goal. They now play another road game (the team's FIFTH of a six-game trip) at the home of the defending Cup champs. The Blues buckled against the Canadiens in a 5-2 loss at home Saturday. What's more, they blew two-goal leads in their two games prior to that, a 4-3 shootout loss to the Vancouver Canucks at home and a 3-2 overtime road loss to the New York Islanders.Time for St Louis to get its act together and for Jordan Binnington to step up. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-19 | Eagles v. Cowboys -2.5 | Top | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic (NFC East Game of the Month) is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET. Does anyone want to win the NFC East? We know the 1-5 Redskins won't/can't and the 2-4 Giants are unlikely to. That leaves us with the 3-3 Eagles and Cowboys, who meet in Dallas tonight in the latest edition on Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Eagles fell to 3-3 following a 38-20 loss at Minnesota last week while the Cowboys own the same mark after dropping their third straight game with a 24-22 setback to the previously winless New York Jets. Carson Wentz has 10 TD passes against just one interception in five career starts vs the Cowboys, while Dak Prescott has five passing and one rushing TD en route to recording THREE straight wins against the Eagles. Wentz is completing 61.2% for 1,458 yards with 12 TDs and three INTs through six games. TE Ertz (33 catches) has been his top target, although WRs Alshon Jeffery (24 catches / 3 TDs) and (23 catches / 3 TDs) are both off to solid starts. The Philly running game is so-so (111.2 YPG ranks 14th) and the Eagles average 26.8 PPG (9th). The defense has been awful against the pass (280.2 YPG ranks 29th) but outstanding against the run (72.8 YPG ranks 2nd). Overall, the Eagles are allowing 24.8 PPG (23rd). Dak Prescott has cooled off after an excellent start but is still completing 69.7% for 1,884 with 11 TDs and six INTs (has 133 rushing yards and two TDs). RB Elliot has blown hot-and-cold (491 RY / 4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) and will have to go up against Philly's excellent rush D (see above). WRs Randall Cobb (back) and Amari Cooper (thigh) are both iffy. Cobb sat out against the Jets and Cooper didn't play after the first series.The Dallas D has performed well, allowing a modest 19.0 PPG (7th) on 331.8 YPG (9th). Dallas opened 3-0 while averaging 32.3 PPG but the wins came over the Giants, Redskins and Dolphins (teams are a combined, 3-14). It's more than fair to be skeptical of Dallas but is Philly any better? TWO of the Eagles' three wins have come at home vs the 1-5 Redskins and 1-5 Jets (playing without Darnold, while their third loss was at Atlanta, in what has been the Falcons' LONE win of 2019. "We're going down to Dallas, and our guys are gonna be ready to play. And we're gonna win that football game, and when we do, we're in first place in the NFC East," Philadelphia head coach Doug Pederson said on 94.1 WIP. "We control our own destiny. We're right where we need to be."I sure DON'T share Pederson's confidence. Injuries have hampered both the Eagles and Cowboys but my bet says the Cowboys WON'T lose FOUR in a row, especially against a hated division rival who they've won and covered against in three straight. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-19 | Saints v. Bears -3 | Top | 36-25 | Loss | -125 | 46 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Chi Bears at 4:25 ET. The Chicago Bears opened the current season by losing 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 12 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2 by kicking a 53-yard FG as time expired. Mitchell Trubisky had led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions the first two games but passed for 231 yards with three TD passes in Chicago's 31-15 Week 3 win at Washington in a MNF game. Trubisky went down in the opening minutes of Chicago's Week 4 game against the Vikings. Chase Daniel threw for 195 yards and a touchdown after Trubisky exited with a left shoulder injury, leading Chicago to a 16-6 victory. Daniel started Chicago's Week 5 loss (24-21) in London to Raiders but Trubisky is expected to start in this Week 7 contest against the Saints. The Saints know all about losing their starting QB. New Orleans has been without Drew Brees since he suffered a thumb injury in Week 2. However, Teddy Bridgewater has guided the team to FOUR consecutive victories. Bridgewater first led the Saints to a win at Seattle, followed with home wins over Dallas and Tampa Bay and then last week won at Jacksonville. Bridgewater threw for 314 yards and matched a career high with four TD passes in a Week 5 win over the Bucs but he struggled against Jacksonville last week. He is averaging a modest 217.8 YPG passing and may be asked to do more with RB Alvin Kamara (373 rushing yards / 276 receiving yards) and TE Jared Cook (15 catches / 2 TDs) both missing this game with injuries. New Orleans' offense is averaging a middle-of-the-road 21.3 PPG (18th) but its defense has stood tall, allowing just 40 points over its last three games (20.3 PPG on the season ranks 11th). Chicago knows a little bit about defense. The Bears allowed an NFL-low 17.7 PPG, helping them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing 13.8 PPG (3rd) on 312.2 YPG (6th). However, the Bears NEED to score more, as they come in averaging just 17.4 PPG (26th) on 266.0 YPG (30th). I expect Trubisky to start but I'm fine with Daniel. Chicago has had two weeks to stew about its upset loss to the Oakland Raiders in London, one that snapped the team's three-game winning streak. No way the Saints could have expected to go 4-0 SU & ATS without Brees and this venue is NOT a good one for New Orleans, as it's an off-surface (grass) . The Bears are 17-6-1 ATS in their last 24 home games and I believe it's a great spot for Chicago. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-19 | Rams -2.5 v. Falcons | Top | 37-10 | Win | 100 | 42 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the LA Rams at 1:00 ET. The Los Angeles Rams opened 3-0 but head to Atlanta in Week 7 on a three-game slide (first-ever under head coach Sean McVay). The defense allowed 55 points in loss to Tampa Bay and 30 points in a loss to Seattle but then it was the offense's turn to underachieve in last Sunday's 20-7 loss to the 49ers. The Rams have won the NFC West each of the last two seasons but at 3-3, trail both 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. The good news is that the Rams face the Falcons on Sunday, who have lost FOUR in a row to fall to 1-5 on the season. Two of the defeats were by fewer than four points, including a heartbreaking 34-33 loss at Arizona last week but the other two came by 14 and 21 points. The Rams are coming off a truly 'ugly' offensive performance against the 49ers, as the Rams gained just 157 total yards and QB Jared Goff threw for a career-low 78 yards. However, the Rams still rank 6th in passing yards (272.5 YPG) and are averaging 25.5 PPG (11th). The defense has plenty of talent (despite its struggles in 2019) and Los Angeles made three moves this past week to try to address some weaknesses. It acquired star CB Jalen Ramsey from Jacksonville, center Austin Corbett from Cleveland and LB Kenny Young, who came over from Baltimore for CB Marcus Peters. Atlanta is a mess, as it looks to avoid its FIFTH straight loss. QB Matt Ryan was 30-of-36 for 356 yards and four touchdowns last week but the Falcons lost again, 34-33 at Arizona. Ryan leads the NFL with 15 TD passes and last week joined Kurt Warner and Steve Young as the only players in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards in each of their team’s first six games of a season. However, Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 29th in rushing at 73.5 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). For all of Ryan's passing yards, the Falcons are averaging a modest 22.5 PPG (16th). Meanwhile, Atlanta's defense is awful, allowing 31.0 PPG (31st). Last year's Super Bowl was played in Atlanta (Rams lost 13-3 to the Pats) but Los Angeles returns to Atlanta as a .500 team with three straight losses, only EIGHT months after their Super Bowl appearance. The Falcons can feel the Rams' pain. Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl season (blew a 28-3 lead to the Pats) seems like a distant memory, as with four straight losses leaving them at 1-5, the Falcons are well are their way to a second straight losing season (Atlanta is currently, hands down, the NFC South's worst team!). Atlanta's loss and non-cover at Arizona last Sunday leaves them 4-16 ATS on the road going back to the start of the 2017 season. Yes, the Falcons are more viable at home but in their last home game, they lost 24-10 to the Titans, who have since lost 14-7 at home to the Bills and 16-0 at Denver. I believe the now-desperate Rams can regain their "mojo," after losses to 5-1 Seattle and 5-0 San Francisco. I won't ignore that the Rams are 15-4 SU on the road since McVay took over at the start of the 2017 season and the Falcons are a team in disarray with a head coach (Dan Quinn) on his way out! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-19 | Cardinals v. Giants -3 | 27-21 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 7 Las Vegas Insider at 1:00 ET. The New York Giants opened the season with a 35-17 loss at Dallas and then a 28-14 home loss to the Bills. New York then decided it was time to bench Eli and give rookie QB Daniel Jones the starting job. Jones was outstanding in the Giants' 32-31 win at Tampa Bay (326 passing yards with two TDs and two rushing TDs) and backed that victory up with a 24-3 home win over the Redskins. However, the Vikings beat the Gianst 28-10 In Week 5 and the Pats beat them 35-14 in Week 6. Jones struggled in both losses, completing just 52.2% for an average of 171.5 YPG with two TDs and four INTs. The 2-4 Giants welcome the 2-3-1 Arizona Cardinals to MetLife Stadium on Sunday. Rookie QB Kyler Murray put on quite a performance as Arizona edged winless Cincinnati 26-23 in Week 5 on the road. He threw for 253 yards while running for 93 of the team's season-high 266 yards on the ground (also had a TD run). The reigning Heisman Trophy winner then threw for 340 yards and three TDs in last Sunday's thrilling 34-33 home win over Atlanta. Murray was the No. 1 overall pick of the 2019 Draft, has started every game, and has the Cardinals on a two-game winning streak. He is an exceptional athlete who can beat teams with feet or his arm. Helping Murray out has been the team's rushing game, as the Cardinals have developed a versatile and productive two-man backfield with David Johnson and Chase Edmonds. Johnson is no longer an All-Pro like in 2016 but he has had at least 100 total yards in each of his past three games. His 30 catches for 315 yards both rank second on the team. His three receiving TDs rank first (note: he's on pace for a career-high 90 catches). Edmonds is a second-year player and he has 161 rushing yards (6.7 YPC) and has caught eight passes, including one for a TD. Defensively, the Cards have struggled, allowing 28.5 YPG (29th) on 411.0 YPG (30th). Arizona should get a boost with the return of eight-time Pro Bowler Patrick Peterson, who served a six-game suspension to begin the season, but how quickly he can make a difference is TBD. Jones was the sixth pick of the 2019 Draft and while he is not as much of a runner as Murray, he has energized the offense with his ability to extend plays and throw accurate strikes. The Giants are well-rested (last played at New England in a Thursday night affair Oct 10) and expect to have star RB Saquon Barkley back on the field when they host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday. Barkley's high ankle sprain has healed enough for him to get back to full participation in practice this week. "No doubt in my mind," Barkley told reporters Thursday when asked if he felt that his ankle, which has caused him to miss three games, would hold up in a game. TE Evan Engram (knee) could also return after missing the loss to the Patriots. Yes, the Cards have won two straight but the wins were over 0-6 Cincinnati and 1-5 Atlanta. It's more than just a little noteworthy that the Cards have blown 14 and 17-point leads past two weeks, respectively. The Cards beat the Bengals on a 31-yard FG as time expired and escaped with a one-point win over Atlanta when the Falcons missed a game-tying extra-point. Yes, the Giants have lost two straight but the loses have come against the 4-2 Vikings and 6-0 Pats. Arizona's win at Cincy in Week 5 marked just the team's SECOND win in its last 11 played in the Eastern Time Zone. This will mark Arizona's furthest trip of the 2019 season and a healthier Giants team will "make them pay!" Good luck..Larry | |||||||
10-20-19 | Jaguars v. Bengals OVER 43.5 | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week is on Jax/Cin Over at 1:00 ET. Rookie QB Gardner Minshew looked very ordinary during the Jaguars' 13-6 loss to New Orleans last Sunday, as Jacksonville was held to a season-low 226 yards and just a pair of FGs. Minshew entered last Sunday's contest completing 66.7% of his passes for an average of 255.8 YPG with nine TDs and just one INT. However, he went just 14 of 29 for only 163 yards without a TD pass and had one interception. The good news for Minshew is, the last three QBs who faced the Bengals had career days (see below). RB Leonard Fournette is healthy in 2019 (584 YR / 5.1 YPC and 26 catches for 189 yards) and he registered 118 yards from scrimmage last week to join Cleveland's Nick Chubb as the only players in the NFL with at least 85 in each of their first six games this season. Jacksonville's defense is allowing 21.8 PPG (13th) on 372.7 YPG (23rd). Brandon Wilson got the Bengals off to a good start last Sunday, returning the opening kickoff 92 yards for a TD, but the team was unable to find the end zone again until late in the fourth quarter. The Bengals have now failed to score an offensive touchdown in the first three quarters of each of their last three games. QB Andy Dalton is completing 61.7% for 1,647 yards with seven TDs and five INTs plus gets NO help from a running game averaging an NFL-low 56.5 YPG. Cincinnati's defense is allowing 286.5 PPG (26th) on 426.0 YPG (31st). The Bengals won't go 0-16, right? However, I'm not sure this is a the game they'll get a "W." Expect a bounce-back game from Minshew, against a very porous Cincy defense. After all, Lamar Jackson became the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to pass for at least 200 yards (236) and rush for 150 (152) in a single game last week against the Bengals. The prior week, Kyler Murray ran for a career-high 93 yards and completed 20 of 32 passes for 253 yards without an interception and in Cincy's Week 4 MNF game against the Steelers, Mason Rudolph threw for a career high 229 yards with two TDs. Also, RB Fournette gets to run against a Cincy rush D that ranks 32nd by allowing 184.5 YPG on 5.3 YPC (also ranks last in the NFL). The Jags will score against this D and look for Cincy's Dalton to "air it out." He has a non-existent running game, so what's Plan B? This game goes OVER this modest number easily. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-19 | Tulane v. Memphis -3.5 | Top | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 35 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Memphis at 7:00 ET. A pair of 5-1 teams square off Saturday night in Memphis, as the Tulane Green Wave visit the Memphis Tigers. Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave are well on their way to a second straight winning season, losing only on the road at now-No. 11 Auburn 24-6 back on Sep 7. When Tommy West took over Memphis in 2001, the school had only been to one bowl in its history (Pasadena Bowl in 1971). West took the Tigers to five bowls but was fired after a 2-10 season in 2011. Larry Porter's two-year tenure as a 3-21 'nightmare,' as was Justin Fuente's first two years with Memphis. Fuente went 7-17 in 2012 and 2013 but led Memphis to a 10-3 season in 2014 (Miami Beach Bowl win) and then to a 9-3 season in 2015 (left for Va Tech before the bowl game). Mike Norvell enters his fourth season, off three bowl appearances, although the Tigers have lost all three. Memphis opened the 2019 season 5-0 and entered last week's game at Temple ranked 23rd in the latest AP poll. However, the Tigers lost 30-28, as a 3 1/2-point favorite. Both schools play in the AAC-West, where Tulane is tied with SMU at 2-0 and Memphis is tied with Navy at 1-1. Tulane is led by its No.4-ranked rushing game, which averages 288.0 YPG. The Green Wave have great depth at RB but Dauphine leads the way with 364 yards on a WHOPPING 11.0 YPC! Overall, the offense is averaging 39.2 PPG (16th) on 496.3 YPG (13th). The defense has played well, allowing 19.2 PPG (26th) on 326.3 YPG (32nd). Temple has an edge at the QB position with Brady White (69.9% with 13 TDs and just 4 INTs) plus RB Gainwell has run for 726 yards on 7.6 YPC with seven TDs. The offense almost matches Tulane in averaging 37.8 PPG (21st) on 466.22 YPG (27th).The defense is good, allowing 21.0 PPG (38th) on 347.2 YPG (44th). Tulane comes in on a four-game winning streak (SU & ATS) but the Green Wave face THREE tough road games over their next four league contests, Saturday at Memphis, at Navy on Oct 26 and at Temple on Nov 16. Memphis has been tough to beat at home since the beginning of 2014, going 31-5 SU. Expect the Tigers to bounce back off their first loss of 2019 with a "comfortable" home win(meaning a cover!) in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-19 | Kentucky v. Georgia OVER 47 | Top | 0-21 | Loss | -109 | 74 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on Kentucky /Georgia Over at 6:00 ET. Georgia's undefeated season came crashing down at home last Saturday, as the No.3-ranked Bulldogs (about a three-TD favorite) lost 20-17 in double-overtime to South Carolina. Georgia committed four turnovers and lost 60 yards in penalties, as its winning streak against SEC East competition ended at 15 games. The 1st CFP rankings will not come out until Nov 5 but the 5-1 Bulldogs fell to No. 10 in the latest AP poll. Georgia remains in Athens this week for a game with 3-3 Kentucky, which is just 1-3 in the SEC. The Wildcats snapped a three-game losing streak last week with a 24-20 home victory over Arkansas, as junior WR-turned-QB Lynn Bowden Jr. rallied Kentucky from a 13-0 deficit in his first start with two rushing TDs and a passing score. “I was really pleased, I guess somewhat surprised in some ways, in the control and composure he had throughout the entire game,” Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops told reporters Monday, indicating junior starting QB Sawyer Smith still is slowed by wrist and shoulder injuries. The latest update is that Smith is probable but I'm not sure that's good news, as he's completing just 46.2% with four TDs and five INTs. Kentucky's offense is best served by a running game that averages 192.3 YPG (41st), averaging 5.0 YPC. Head coach Mark Stoops led the Wildcats to a 10-3 season in 2018, including a 27-24 upset of Penn St in the Citrus Bowl. The 10 wins matched the second-most in school history for a single season, as only Kentucky's 1950 team won more, going 11-1 and coached by some guy named Bear Bryant. The 2018 team was fueled by a defense that allowed just 16.8 PPG. This year's D returned just four starters and is allowing 23.7 PPG (good but a TD more than last year's unit). Georgia QB Jake Fromm entered last Saturday's game with eight TDs passes and zero INTs but would set career highs for completions (28), attempts (51) and interceptions (three). He's completing 70.4% on the season and leads an offense averaging 38.5 PPG (18th) on 505.2 YPG (10th). Swift (573 yards on 6.4 YPC and 5 TDs) leads a running game averaging 237.5 YPG (16th). Offensive balance is what Georgia needs, as Fromm fell to 0-5 lifetime in games when he attempts 30-plus passes vs South Carolina. The Georgia D is outstanding, allowing just 12.3 PPG (7th) on 281.7 YPG (12th). Georgia's CFP chances took a HUGE 'hit' with last Saturday's loss, so we should expect the Bulldogs to bring their “A” game the rest of the way, in effort to climb back into the national title picture. The Bulldogs are off the following week after this contest and then play No. 9 Florida in Jacksonville, host No. 22 Missouri and finally visits No. 11 Auburn the first three Saturdays of November. However, first things first.Georgia has beaten Kentucky NINE straight time, averaging 38.2 PPG during that span. Expect the Bulldogs to surpass that average here, as this game 'soars' OVER! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-19 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State -3.5 | Top | 45-27 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Big-12 Game of the Year is on Oklahoma St at 4:00 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where they won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Rhule has Baylor off to a 6-0 start and the Bears are currently in the AP poll. Baylor is off to a 3-0 start in the Big 12 but have been VERY lucky. The Bears blew a 20-0 lead in their Big 12 opener against Iowa State but redshirt-freshman John Mayers made a 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining for the win.The Bears made it EIGHT straight wins dating to 2018 last Saturday but were again fortunate after benefiting greatly from a false start call in their 33-30 double-overtime victory over Texas Tech. The Bears drove 97 yards to get the tying FG on the final play of regulation (Mayers came through again) and then won it with a TD in the 2nd OT. Mike Gundy is in his 15th season at Oklahoma St and this is clearly NOT one of his better teams. The Cowboys are 4-2 (1-2 in Big 12 play). OSU opened 3-0 but has lost TWO of its last three games. The Cowboys lost a competitive 36-30 decision at Texas (as a 7-point dog) on Sep 21 for their first loss of the season, then beat Kan St 26-13 at home, before losing 45-35 at Texas Tech on Oct 5th as a 9-point road favorite. Baylor had its hands full with Texas Tech last Saturday at home, as junior QB Charlie Brewer threw his first three interceptions of the season. However, he ran for three TDs, including one in overtime. He's completing 65.4% with 11 TDs and 3 INTs, as Baylor ranks 34th in the nation with 276.3 YPG passing. The running game is solid (199.2 YPG on 5.6 YPC), helping Baylor average 37.8 PPG (20th). The Baylor D is solid, allowing 17.8 PPG (17th). Spencer Sanders (63.3 percent, 1,333 yards, 10 TDs, eight INTs) needs only 296 yards to break the freshmen school record for passing yards in a season .However, he hardly seems in the same class as OSU's last two QBs, Cornelius and Rudolph, who threw for a combined 97 TDs with just 26 INTs the previous three seasons. However, sophomore RB Chuba Hubbard has more rushing yards than any player in the nation, checking in with 1,094 on 6.8 YPC with 13 TDs. OSU ranks 7th in the nation with 279.0 YPG on the ground (5.6 YPC), helping them average 39.8 PPG (11th). The defense is a worry though, allowing 27.5 PPG (71st). Noting all of the above, Baylor's first three wins of 2019 came over FCS SF Austin (1-5), UTSA (2-4) and Rice (0-6) plus the Bears have been extremely fortunate to win TWO of their three Big-12 contests (see above). Oklahoma St has had a week to stew after it was ambushed at Lubbock on Oct 5 and returns to Stillwater for its Homecoming Game. What's more, the Cowboys will surely remember Baylor beating them 35-31 last season in Waco on a 6-yard TD pass to with SEVEN seconds remaining in the game. REVENGE works and Baylor's eight-game winning streak (6-0 start in 2019), ends! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-19 | Oregon v. Washington +3 | Top | 35-31 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* play is on Washington at 3:30 ET. Oregon opened the season No. 11 in the AP poll and met No. 16 Auburn in its season opener on Aug 31 in Arlington, Tx.. The Ducks led 21-6 late in the third quarter but saw Auburn score the game's final three TDs for a 27-21 win. The game-winner for Auburn came on a 26-yard TD pass with just NINE seconds remaining in the game. As the old saying goes, "Don't get mad, get even." Mario Cristobal's team has done just that, winning FIVE in a row (including a 3-0 start in Pac-12 play) and have outscored the opposition on average, 39.0-to-5.0 PPG. That's right, Oregon has allowed just 25 points in its five-game winning streak, holding five consecutive opponents to single-digit point totals for the first time since 1958. However, the Ducks now must visit their border rival the Washington Huskies. Washington is off a 51-27 blowout of Arizona, but the 5-2 Huskies are just 2-2 in Pac-12 play. Washington opened the season ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll but come into this contest having just climbed back into the rankings at No. 25 this past Sunday. Oregon's senior QB (Justin Herbert) is a likely top-five NFL draft pick. He completing 69.1% with 17 TDs and just one INT and has thrown a TD pass in 34 consecutive games, the longest streak in the nation, He's protected by a veteran offensive line that also gives Oregon a solid running game (176.8 YPG ranks 56th). Oregon is averaging 36.0 PPG on 461.0 YPG, ranking 30th in both categories. As noted above, the defense is spectacular, allowing 8.7 PPG (3rd) on 267.7 YPG (8th). Washington QB Jacob Eason was the 2016 National Gatorade Player of the Year and began his career at Georgia. He's not in Herbert's class but he's completing 66.0% with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He's supported by a deep group of RBs, three of which whom have more than 325 yards rushing. Ahmed is the best of the group (522 RY / 5.8 YPC / 6 TDs) which averages 179.1 YPG (53rd). Washington is averaging 36.4 PPG (29th) and most teams would be happy allowing 19.6 PPG (28th) on 363.6 YPG (50th) but in this case, the Huskies' D is being compared to the Ducks'. Both schools play in the Pac-12 North, so Oregon can all but clinch the title here with a win. The Oregon D is 'nasty' (has allowed just one TD over its opponents' last 63 drives while also forcing 21 three-and-outs during that span) but winning at Husky Stadium will NOT be easy. What's more, Washington is a home dog for the first time since 2015. From 2016 through 2019, Washington has played 25 home games, going 23-2 SU. The Huskies lost to USC at home in 2016 and had won 15 straight home games before losing 20-19 to Cal on Sep 7. The Cal game was delayed more than 2 1/2 hours by severe weather, with the Bears winning on a FG with EIGHT seconds left. I'm saying the home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-19 | Southern Miss v. Louisiana Tech +1 | Top | 30-45 | Win | 100 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
My 9* play is on La Tech at 3:30 ET. Southern Miss heads to Ruston, La on Saturday to take on La Tech in a C-USA action. The two schools are both 2-0 in league play with the Golden Eagles sitting at 4-2 on the season and the Bulldogs checking in at 5-1. Southern Miss saw a three-year bowl streak end in 2018 (went just 6-5) but is hoping to get back to 'bowling' in 2019. Fact is, the team's two losses this season have come on the road against two SEC schools, Miss St and Alabama. The Golden Eagles come into this contest off back-to-back home wins,31-13 over UTEP and 45-27 over North Texas. As for La Tech, the Bulldogs opened the 2019 season with a 45-14 loss at Texas but have since won FIVE in a row. Southern Miss is led by QB Jack Abraham who has completed almost 71.6% of his passes for 1,936 yards, with 12 TD’s and four INTs. The Golden Eagles rank 6th in passing (331.2 YPG) but the team's leading rusher has just 279 yards and is averaging a woeful 113.5 YPG on the ground (115th). That said, Southern Miss is averaging 30.5 PPG (57th). The defense is allowing 29.8 PPG (91st) on 388.2 YPG (66th). La Tech QB J’Mar Smith threw three TD passes and RB Justin Henderson ran for three first-quarter TDs to power Louisiana Tech to a 69-21 victory over Massachusetts last Saturday. Smith is completing 63.8% for 1,557 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs on the season. Henderson has 478 yards rushing, while averaging a healthy 8.2 YPC (has eight TDs). Tech's offense is averaging 34.0 PPG (39th) on 467.3 YPG (25th). On the defensive side of the ball, despite allowing 45 points at Texas, La Tech checks into this game allowing a modest 23.0 PPG (45th). The winner of this one takes a big step towards representing the West in C-USA's title game and I'm "all over" La Tech. The Bulldogs come in on a five-game winning streak and will surely remember therir bitter losses to the Golden Eagles the last two seasons. Southern Miss eked out a 21-20 win at home in 2018 and in 2017, won here in Ruston 34-27 in two OTs. Expect the Bulldogs to "get it right' this time around. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-19 | Florida -5 v. South Carolina | Top | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 77 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Florida at 12:00 ET. Dan Mullen took over at Florida for the beginning of the 2018 season and revitalized an offense that had been dormant the previous three seasons. The Gators averaged 35.0 PPG in 2018, after averaging just 23.2, 23.9 and 22.1 the previous three seasons. Florida went 10-3 last year and its dominating 41-15 win over Michigan in the Peach Bowl gave them a final AP ranking of 7th (tied with Georgia). Florida opened the 2019 season ranked 8th in the AP's preseason poll and and after a 6-0 start, was ranked No. 7 heading into a showdown with No. 5 LSU in Baton Rogue. The Gators lost 42-28 at LSU last Saturday but the games was MUCH closer than the final score. Florida now heads to Columbia, SC to take on the South Carolina Gamecocks, whose head coach is Will Muschamp. Muschamp was Florida's head coach from 2011 through 2014, going a disappointing 28-21, before being fired before the team played its 2014 bowl game. He got the South Carolina job in 2016 and in his first three seasons, had led the Gamecocks to a modest 22-17 record (three bowls but just one win). South Carolina opened the 2019 season 1-3 but then won 24-7 at home to Kentucky on Sep 28 before pulling off what has to be biggest upset of the 2019 college football season to-date last Saturday. The Gamecocks went toe-to-toe in Athens with then-No. 3 Georgia on Oct 12, eventually winning 20-17 in double overtime. The Gators lost starting QB Franks in the season's third game but Kyle Trask came in to finish off a 29-21 win at Kentucky in that contest and in four starts, has completed 68.4% with 10 TDs and just three INTs. Trask threw for a career-high 310 yards and three touchdowns at LSU but head coach Dan Mullen was concerned about the Gators' inability to put points on the board in their last four drives, including two fourth-quarter trips inside LSU's 20-yard line. Trask threw a costly end-zone interception with about 7 1/2 minutes left in the game, with Florida trailing only 35-28. After blown coverage gave up a 54-yard TD pass for LSU, the Gators again drove the length of the field, only to be stopped on four straight plays with a 1st-and-goal at the LSU two-yard-line! South Carolina' offense didn't score much against Georgia and it didn't help that starting QB Ryan Hilinski (15-20 but for just 116 yds) was lost to a knee injury. He was replaced by Dakereon Joyner, who completed six of 12 passes for only 39 yards and also rushed six times for 28 yards in relief. However, it was the South Carolina D which turned in a heroic effort with THREE interceptions and one fumble recovery. CB Israel Mukuamu accounted for all three of the 'picks,' returning one 53 yards for a touchdown to become the first Gamecock with three interceptions in a game since 1988. Hilinski is expected to be available but note that if we "take away" South Carolina's 72-point output against Charleston Southern (anyone know that school had a FB team?), the Gamecocks are averaging only 20.2 PPG in their other five contests. Yes, the Florida D allowed 42 points on 511 yards to LSU but despite that, the Gators rank 10th in the nation by allowing only 14.1 PPG on 314.2 YPG (22nd). The offense has not been hurt by Franks' injury, as the Gators enter averaging 31.7 PPG (53rd) on 2429.3 YPG (50th). This is a classic "let-down" spot for South Carolina and classic "bounce-back" spot for Florida, which gets next week off before its meeting with Georgia in Jacksonville on Nov 2. A stumble here and the Gators' could find themselves 6-3, after a 6-0 start. After his "biggest" win at South Carolina, the LAST team Muschamp wanted to see this Saturday (other than Alabama), was Florida coming off a loss. Lay the points with the road team. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-18-19 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -5.5 | Top | 36-31 | Loss | -108 | 59 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Lights G.O.M. is on FAU at 6:30 ET. Oakland Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making him the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946) at 31. However, he was gone before the end of his second season, after posting a 5-15 record. Trouble and controversy have followed Kiffin ever since. He had a one-year stay as Tennessee's head coach and spent three-plus seasons at USC, before landing a job as Nick Saban's OC from 2014-16. That ended badly as well and Kiffin landed at FAU and in his first season (2017) went 11-3 with a bowl win (Owls had come off three straight 3-9 seasons). However, FAU was just 5-7 last season and opened 2019 with a 45-21 loss at Ohio St and a 48-14 home loss to UCF. Kiffin has turned things around quickly though, winning FOUR in a while averaging 39.0 PPG. 4-2 FAU welcomes 3-3 Marshall to Boca Raton for a Friday game in C-USA play. FAU (2-0) and Marshall (1-1) were the East's two-favorites in the preseason but Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd are struggling in 2019, going 1-5 ATS. The team's lone ATS win came way back on Sep 6, when Marshall (+14) lost 14-7 at Boise St. QB Green is struggling, with just two TD passes in his last three games, passing for only 131 and 175 yards in two of those three contests. Marshall has lost both road games this season, at Boise St (see above) and 24-13 at MTSU on Oct 5. The game at MTSU is noteworthy, as Marshall scored just 13 points on a defense allowing 32.7 PPG (107th) on 494.7 YPG (126th). FAU just beat MTSU 28-13 at home last Saturday, despite playing its worst offensive game since being outclassed by Ohio St and UCF to open the 2019 season. However, while Marshall's QB is struggling, FAU's Robinson has thrown for 1,557 yards with 13 TDs and just two INTs. If freshman RB Davidson (149 rushing yards v. MTSU) continues to develop, FAU may just be the team to beat in the East (Western Ky has opened 3-0 and hosts FAU on Nov 2). Getting back to the current situation, the Owls are 13-4 SU at home under Kiffin (13 wins have come by an average of 24.6 PPG) and this modest impost should be no problem against a Marshall team which has scored just 20 points in its only two road games of 2019. Lay it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-19 | Chiefs -3 v. Broncos | Top | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 61 h 40 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos opened 0-4 while averaging a modest 17.5 PPG, while Fangio's defense was yielding 23.3 PPG. The Broncos broke into the win column in Week 5 with a 20-13 at the LA Chargers and then last Sunday back at home vs the Titans, Denver recorded its first seven-sack, three-interception performance in over 25 years in a 16-0 shutout of Tennessee. Mahomes threw three TDs in the loss to Houston (also threw his first 'pick' of the season) but a second straight loss is worrisome. However, there was some good news, as WR Tyreek Hill made a spectacular return from a five-game absence due to sternum and right collarbone injuries with his NFL-best sixth multi-TD performance since 2017 (5 catches for 80 yards with 2 TD receptions). TE Travis Kelce leads the team with 32 catches and he has torched the Broncos for 762 career receiving yards, his most versus any opponent. I'm not sure Kansas City has done itself any favors by abandoning its 24th-ranked running game (82.7 YPG), as while LeSean McCoy is averaging 5.4 YPC, he only has 258 yards on the season and hasn't carried more than 11 times in ANY game. The KC defense continues to be a concern, allowing 406.2 YPG (27th), including 161.8 YPG on the ground (30th). The Flacco-led Denver offense is averaging only 17.7 PPG (26th), as the former Super Bowl MVP owns six TD passes, five INTs and a poor QB rating of 87.4. Lindsay (397 yards / 4.7 YPC) and Freeman (284 yards / 4.3 YPC) are decent RBs but the team is averaging only 116.0 YPG on the ground (14th). Denver saw Indy rush for 180 yards against the Chiefs vulnerable rush D and maybe that could work for them, as well. Then again, Vic Fangio dismissed the notion that Indianapolis showed the blueprint on how to defeat Kansas City. "Every game has its own personality to it," Fangio said. "The Colts played well on that day in all three phases of the game and got some critical takeaways that stopped some drives." Yes, it's a short week for KC (plus the Chiefs will be playing at high altitude) but the Broncos are long-time, familiar division rivals. Here's the rub. The Chiefs have won SEVEN straight over the Broncos, including FOUR in a row at Mile High. The Broncos haven’t yielded a TD in the last nine quarters but Mahomes' 14 TD passes this season are four more than the Broncos have scored as a team. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 24 games and have 'owned' the Broncos as of late (see above). As for the Broncos, they check in just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 at home. No THREE straight losses for KC, here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-19 | Astros v. Yankees -126 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -126 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* ALCS Game 4 play is on the NY Yankees at 8:08 ET. Wednesday's ALCS contest was rained out, so Game 4 now goes tonight. The New York Yankees won Game 1, as Tanaka pitched six scoreless innings and 22-year-old Gleyber Torres (in his second season) singled, doubled and homered while driving in five runs! However, New York's lethal offense has been held to just THREE runs the last two games, with Aaron Judge's two-run HR accounting for all the scoring in Game 2's 11-inning loss, while Torres provided New York’s only run in a 4-1 setback Tuesday when he hit a solo HR. Verlander and Cole combined to allow two ERs in 13.2 innings (1.32 ERA) and Houston relievers have allowed just one ER in 6.2 innings (1.35 ERA). Houston is a little worried about its offense as well, as while the Astros led the majors with a .275 BA in the regular season, they are hitting only .217 in the postseason, averaging a VERY modest 3.25 RPG. Wednesday's rain out means it's a pitching rematch between Zack Greinke (0-2, 8.38 ERA) and Masahiro Tanaka (2-0, 0.82 ERA). Greinke went 8-1 with 3.02 ERA in 10 starts with Houston (Astros were 8-2) during the regular season after being acquired at the trade deadline but he's served up five HRs in two 2019 postseason starts. He'll take the mound tonight just 3-6 in 13 postseason starts (4.58 ERA), having gone 0-3 since 2015. Tanaka struggled all season on the road (5.64 ERA) but he's been VERY good here at Yankee Stadium (3.10 ERA / 1.08 WHIP). He's made two postseason starts in 2019, winning both games with an 0.82 ERA, 0.55 WHIP, .118 BAA and an 11-1 KW ratio. Those two efforts push his career postseason record to 5-2 in seven starts with a 1.32 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. How important is this game to New York? A loss means the Yankees would have to beat the Astros THREE in a row, having to face Verlander and Cole in two of those games. The Yankees motto has to be, "If not now, WHEN?" My bet says the Yankees, who are 59-25 at home (outscoring opponents 5.46-to-3.88 RPG), get the much-needed "W." Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-16-19 | Maple Leafs v. Capitals -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My NHL 10* Game of the Month is on the Was Caps at 7:00 ET. The Toronto Maple Leafs have opened 4-2-1, after scoring FOUR times in the second period to beat Minnesota 4-2 last. The victory comes following a four-game stretch in which the Maple Leafs won just ONCE (1-2-1). The Washington Capitals have opened 3-2-2 but are winless (0-1-2) in their first three games at home for the first time since the 1983-84 season. The Capitals gave up four goals in the first 9 minutes, 25 seconds of Monday’s 6-3 loss to Colorado at Capital One Arena and here's what head coach Todd Reirden told reporters about his team’s performance on Monday.“We got away from our team identity right from the start,” he said. “You could see the difference when we played to our identity and started to be physical and forecheck, now the whole game changed. We’ve got to be able to do that for 60 full minutes.” Mitch Marner recorded three points (one goal) and defenseman Morgan Rielly set up four goals on Tuesday, while Auston Matthews scored his team-best seventh goal, giving him eight points (one behind team-leaders Marner and Rielly). Captain John Tavares scored for the second time in three games (he has six points), while Frederik Andersen (4-2-0, 3.14 GAA & .893 SP) got the victory with a 27-save performance. Braden Holtby lasted just 7 minutes, 54 seconds on Monday, allowing three goals on as many shots and NEEDS to find his top form after opening the season 1-1-2 with a 4.27 GAA and .846 SP. Captain Alex Ovechkin has scored four of his team-leading five goals in the last three contests, while defenseman John Carlson has notched at least one point in SIX of his seven games this season. He leads the team with 11 points, including a club-high nine assists. We could see two backup goalies in this one. Andersen started and won last night for Toronto, which could mean backup Michael Hutchinson (0-0-1, 3.85 GAA & .894 SP) will make his second start on Wednesday."It’s a team, and we’re a team,” Reirden said of Holtby. “I’m sure there are some things that he would have liked to have done different. But there’s some things that a lot of us would have liked to have done different. We’re in this together.” However, Reirden yanked Holtby in favor of rookie Ilya Samsonov on Monday, who checks in with a 2-1-0 record (1.43 GAA & .944 SP). The goalie situation is irrelevant for me, it's more about a quality Washington team which after going 113-37-14 on home ice the previous four regular seasons, has gone winless in its first three games at home for the FIRST time since 1983-84 season. The Caps give the D.C. fans something to cheer about tonight, one night after the Nats clinched the franchise's first-ever World Series appearance by sweeping the Cards in the NLCS. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-15-19 | Astros -153 v. Yankees | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* ALCS Tie-Breaker is on the Hou Astros at 4:08 ET. The New York Yankees earned a 7-0 victory in Saturday's Game 1 and had a chance to take a 2-0 lead in the ALCS but missed that opportunity, as the Astros were able to win 3-2 (11 innings) in Game 2. However, the Yankees get to return home for the next THREE games (note: New York won Games 3,4 & 5 in the 2017 ALCS vs Houston). The Yankees have scored 18 runs in their two postseason home games so far but the Astros in no way resemble the Twins. However, one can't ignore that while the Astros led the majors with a .274 batting average in the regular season, they are hitting just .218 in the postseason, averaging 3.14 RPG. The Game 3 starters will be Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino. Ironically, the Yankees used their 2008 first-round pick on Gerrit Cole but he opted not to sign and instead attended UCLA. The Pirates made Cole the first overall selection in the 2011 MLB draft, after his college baseball career. Cole was obtained from Pittsburgh by the Astros after they won the 2017 World Series in 2017. He went 15-5 with a 2.88 ERA in 2018 but entering his final start of May 2019, Cole was just 4-5 with a 4.11 ERA in 11 starts (Astros were 6-5). However, Cole is 18-0 in 24 starts since, including two in the postseason (Astros are 22-2). He led the majors with 326 strikeouts in the regular season and also finished with career bests in wins (20), ERA (2.50) and innings pitched (212.1 ). Severino signed a four-year, $40 million contract extension in Feb of 2019 that included a club option for a fifth season worth an additional $12.25 million. However, on March 15, it was revealed that he was diagnosed with rotator cuff inflammation on his right shoulder. Severino was then diagnosed with a Grade 2 lat strain in early April, which caused him to miss almost the entire regular season. He started three games in September (pitching only 12 innings) and then gave up four hits and two walks over four scoreless innings with four strikeouts in Game 3 of the ALDS in Minnesota Severino is 1-2 with a 5.33 ERA in seven career postseason starts (Yanks are 4-3), including two starts vs the Astros in the 2017 ALCS. He lasted just four and 4.2 innings in those two, allowing four ERs (4.15 ERA), with the Yanks losing both contests. Seeing the Yankees as this big of a home dog is rare but just how much can they expect from Severino? As for Cole, I've already noted his season numbers and will add that in his two postseason starts in 2019 he's allowed one run on six hits and three walks with 25 strikeouts across 15.2 innings (0.57 ERA / 0.57 WHIP / .118 BAA). Can't NOT back Cole here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-14-19 | Avalanche v. Capitals -127 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -127 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Was Capitals at 5:00 ET. The Colorado Avalanche had the good fortune of opening the current NHL season with a four-game homestand. The Avs took advantage of that schedule by opening with three consecutive two-goal victories and then then pulled out a 3-2 OT win against Arizona this past Saturday. While Colorado is without a blemish in 2019-20, Washington snapped a three-game winless skid (0-1-2) with Saturday's 4-1 win at Dallas. The two teams meet tonight in Washington, as the Avs test their 4-0-0 start against the 3-1-2 Caps. Former Capital Andre Burakovsky recorded his second game-winning goal in as many contests, as he netted the OT winner on Saturday. The 24-year-old Russian is facing his former team for the first time since being traded to the Avalanche in June for a second- and third-round pick in the 2020 NHL Draft. Nathan MacKinnon (led Colorado LY with 99 points) is tied for the team with six points (5 assists with linemate Mikko Rantanen (2nd on the team with 87 points, who has three goals and three assists. The Avs are particularly happy with their decision to move on from offensive-minded blue-liner Tyson Barrie and shift their focus toward the reigning Hobey Baker Award winner, Cale Makar. He has rewarded Colorado's faith in him by becoming the first defenseman in franchise history to begin his career with at least one point in his first four regular-season games. He has yet to score a goal but has five assists, scoring one goal and setting up five others in 10 playoff contests last spring. Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin has three goals and an assist in his last three contests and tops Washington with four goals. However, defenseman John Carlson recorded his third straight multi-point performance and fourth of the season after scoring and setting up a goal in Saturday's win and leads all NHL blue-liners in assists (eight) and points (10). The Capitals have had problems holding leads in the third period in the early going so far, but the defense and rookie goalie Ilya Samsonov made everything stand up against Dallas. Samsonov is thought to be the goalie who will take over for Braden Holtby as the veteran's contract expires after this season. Holtby has not started very well this season (1-1-2 with a 3.67 GAA & .868 SP) but is expected to be in net tonight, as he owns a 5-1-0 record with a 2.34 goals-against average in six career starts vs Colorado. Rookie goalie Pavel Francouz made his NHL debut and finished with 34 saves in Colorado's OT win on Saturday but he is the backup to Philipp Grubauer, who backed up goalie Braden Holtby during his time with the Capitals. Some (most?) may remember that Grubauer won the starting job heading into the 2017-18 playoffs but Holtby took it back and led Washington to the Stanley Cup. Grubauer was in net for Colorado's first three wins and has played well (2.34 GAA & .931 SP). Colorado's 4-0-0 start is the team's best in SIX years but as noted, this marks the team's FIRST game away from Denver. The Avs were a modest 17-16-8 on the road last season and I'm on the Caps in this one, as Holtby & Co. will be primed to best Grubauer . Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | Yankees v. Astros -153 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND Play is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET. When the New York Yankees lost to the Houston Astros in the 2017 ALCS, the home team won all SEVEN games. One thing we are now sure of is, that trend will NOT be repeated here in 2019. Masahiro Tanaka allowed one hit over six scoreless innings and three relievers did the rest for the Yankees, as the Astros were held to three hits in a 7-0 New York victory. 22-year-old Gleyber Torres (in his second season) was the hitting star for the Yankees, as he singled, doubled and homered while driving in five runs! As noted above, the Astros managed just THREE hits last night and are now hitting .224 in the postseason. The Game 2 pitching matchup will be NY lefty James Paxton and Houston's Justin Verlander. Paxton ended July 5-6 with a 4.72 ERA but then went 6-0 (3.57 ERA) in August plus 4-0 (1.05 ERA) in five September stars (team was 5-0). He finished the regular season 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA. His first-ever postseason start was not very good, as he allowed three ERs on five hits (two HRS) in just 4.2 innings but the Yankees won going away, 10-4. Paxton gave up five runs in just four innings in his ONLY start at Houston this year but is 4-2 with a 3.92 ERA in eight career starts at Minute Maid Park. Veralander will battle teammate Gerrit Cole for the NL's Cy Young this season and was superb in his first game of the 2019 postseason with seven scoreless innings against the Tampa Bay Rays. However, he was knocked out after just 3.2 innings while allowing four runs in a 6-1 Game 4 loss (note: he was pitching on three days' rest after a full start for the FIRST time in his career!). Verlander has underachieved in the World Series but he's 8-1 with a 2.52 ERA in 13 appearances (12 starts) in Division Series play plus 6-3 with a 2.95 ERA in nine Championship Series starts. The Astros got shut down last night and as noted, are NOT hitting much this postseason. However, the Astros went 38-11 against lefties in the regular season, including 29-8 in night games. I just don't believe that Paxton is "ready for primetime." Meanwhile, Verlander has made six career postseason starts against the Yankees, producing a 4-0 record with a 2.33 ERA and 41 strikeouts over 38.2 innings. He claimed MVP honors in the 2017 ALCS after he limited the Yankees to one run on 10 hits and two walks with 21 strikeouts over 16 innings in two starts. The Astros HAVE to win this and in Verlander I will trust. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | Cowboys v. Jets OVER 44 | Top | 22-24 | Win | 103 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Total of the Week is on Dal/NJY Over at 4:25 ET. The Dallas Cowboys opened the 2019 season with three lopsided victories (surpassing 30 points in each game) and became a trendy pick to emerge out of the NFC this season. However, the team's offense was completely stymied in a 12-10 setback at New Orleans in Week 4 (SNF) and the Cowboys were manhandled by visiting Green Bay in Week 5 at home, falling behind by 28 points in a 34-24 loss. The Cowboys get a break this Sunday, as they draw the 0-4 NY Jets at MetLife Stadium looking to snap the team's two-game losing streak. The Jets have scored the second-fewest points in the league in their 0-4 start (9.8 PPG) but will be hoping for a boost with the return of QB Sam Darnold to the lineup. "I feel good. Energy is awesome," said Darnold, the No. 3 overall pick a year ago who has been sidelined three games due to mononucleosis. "Just looking forward to playing this week." QB Dak Prescott opened the season completing 25 of 32 passes for 405 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (perfect QB rating of 158.3). In fact, he entered the Cowboys' Week 4 game in New Orleans with nine TDs and just two INTs but then he and the entire offense 'laid an egg.' Dak put up big numbers in last week's loss to the Packers (but remember, Dallas fell behind 28-0), throwing for a career-high 463 yards and two TDs. However, he also was intercepted three times and absorbed three sacks. RB Ezekiel Elliott posted B2B 100-yard rushing efforts in Weeks 2 and 3 but while he has scored in each of the last two weeks, he has rushed for a total of just 97 yards in the two losses. "I'm not really concerned at all. We're still the same offense," Elliott said. "I'm just concerned about figuring out how to get things right in this offense.” The Jets were forced to start third-string QB Luke Falk in their last two games and the result was two dismal offensive performances. The Jets lost 30-14 to the Pats, gaining just 105 yards with six FDs. Then came a 31-6 loss to the Eagles, when the Jets gained 128 yards on nine FDs. In his two starts, Falk completed 27 of 48 passes for a total of 218 yards without a TD pass, while throwing three INTs (he posted QB ratings of 47.2 and 37.3). Without a 'real' NFL QB, RB Le'Veon Bell was held to 78 yards rushing in those two games. As for New York's D, it's allowed 25.2 PPG (24th). However, the Jets are getting QB Sam Darnold back this week and Bell was thrilled. "Him getting back in the huddle and him just calling plays in practice, just hearing his voice and getting that normal cadence that everybody's normally used to hearing," Bell said, "it's like, Oh yeah, Sam's back. We ready. Ain't nobody more excited than me. Not the coaches, not the fans -- nobody. I'm ready for him to be back." Darnold threw for 175 yards and a score in the season opener but the Jets blew a 16-point lead against Buffalo. Bell only has 206 yards rushing this season but the NFL's most-versatile back the last few seasons has a team-leading 27 catches for 166 yards and TD. The Dallas D has been good this season but I'm expecting the Jets to be able to move the ball and score. What's more, I expect a HUGE effort from the Dallas offense (remember those three straight games of 30-plus points to open the 2019 season?), which should lead the way to a convincing win. I've never been a big fan of laying this may points on the road but I do believe this is a GREAT spot to play this contest OVER! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | 49ers v. Rams -3 | Top | 20-7 | Loss | -120 | 56 h 47 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Oct Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET. Jim Harbaugh took over the San Francisco 49ers in 2011 and led them to THREE straight NFC championship games and one Super Bowl. However, after an 8-8 season in 2014, both Harbaugh and the 49ers had had enough of each other. Tomsula lasted one season (5-11) and Kelly one (2-14), before Kyle Shanahan was hired. His 49ers went 6-10 and 4-12 the first two seasons but San Francisco now sits atop the NFC West at 4-0 (3-1 ATS). A running game, led by unknowns Breida (340 yards / 6.5 YPC) and Mostert (236 yards / 5.8 YPC), leads the NFL in rushing at 200.0 YPG. QB Jimmy Garoppolo hasn't been great but he will enter this game 10-2 as San Francisco's starting QB. Then there is the team's D, which ranks 4th in allowing 14.2 PPG on 257.5 YPG (2nd). Sean McVay was the offensive coordinator of the Washington Redskins from 2014 to 2016 but was hired by the Rams as their head coach on January 12, 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach since the start of the NFL's modern era. His first two seasons were almost entirely positive times (won back-to-back NFC West titles), as the Rams were shockingly good from the very start of his tenure. The Rams steadily improved all the way to the Super Bowl at the end of last season (just McVay's second year). The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but they've lost two straight, 55-40 at home to Tampa Bay and 30-29 at Seattle. In may be just Week 6 but this is a landmark game in the NFC West race (SF is 4-0, Sea 4-1 & LA 3-2). Almost nothing has gone wrong for Jimmy Garoppolo and the unbeaten 49ers but the team's running game has taken a big hit on the injury front, as both FB Kyle Juszczyk and right tackle Mike McGlinchey are out for about a month with knee injuries, joining left tackle Joe Staley (leg) on the sidelines.Don't dismiss Juszczyk's absence, as he's a devastating lead blocker. As for LA's running game, Todd Gurley, missed the e team's only real practice of the last two weeks Wednesday due to a bruised left thigh. The once-prolific running back's touches are already down sharply this season, and McVay plans to use Malcolm Brown and rookie Darrell Henderson in the backfield against the Niners. Goff is third in the NFL in passing yards (1,649) but has tossed six INTs over his last three games and seven on the season, tied for the second-highest total in the league. He also has just 7 TD passes and an 83.0 QB rating. That's quite a drop-off from the last two seasons, when he owns a 60-19 ratio with QB ratings of 100.5 and 101.1. Yes, the 49ers are 4-0 with some great stats BUT their wins have come over Tampa Bay, Cincy, Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Those teams own a combined 5-15 (.250) record! The Rams are on just the second losing streak of McVay's tenure with back-to-back defeats in which the defense has allowed 85 points! No way LA's defense doesn't show up here, big time. The Rams are 3-0 against the 49ers the last two seasons with Goff starting (did not play in a Week 17 loss back in 2017), averaging 42.7 PPG. In those three games, Goff has thrown for nine TDs with no INTs. Never could have imagined that one could lay three points with the Rams at home vs the 49ers in Week 6 at the start of the season. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | Falcons v. Cardinals +2.5 | 33-34 | Win | 103 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:05 ET. The Arizona Cardinals visited the Bengals in Week 5 sitting 0-3-1 on the season and hadn't won in Cincinnati in 12 years. What's more, Arizona had won just ONCE in its last 10 games played in the Eastern Time Zone. The good news was, the 0-4 Bengals were in worse shape than the Cards. Rookie QB Kyler Murray put on quite a performance last Sunday, throwing for 253 yards while running for 93 of the team's season-high 266 yards on the ground (he had a TD run). Arizona edged winless Cincinnati 26-23, giving the Cardinals their first win of the season. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan threw for 330 yards to join Steve Young (1998), Kurt Warner (2000), Peyton Manning (2009 and 2013) and Patrick Mahomes (2019) as the only players in NFL history with at least 300 passing yards in each of their team's first five games of a season. However, the Falcons lost 53-32 at Houston, falling to 1-4 on the season (0-3 on the road). Atlanta has spent a week in the desert after getting beaten at Houston, as the Falcons chose not to fly home after the loss. Instead, Atlanta flew directly from Houston to Phoenix and practiced this past week on Arizona State's campus.Sure, Ryan can put up huge numbers but in a few short seasons, Atlanta has gone from having one of the better 1-2 rushing tandems in the NFL with Devonta Freeman and Telvin Coleman, to ranking 28th in rushing at 67.6 YPG (just 3.7 YPC). Atlanta's defense is a mess (30.4 PPG allowed ranks 31st) and enters this contest having lost two safeties to injury while the team's non-existent pass rush could not sack Deshaun Watson even ONCE last Sunday (Watson had been sacked 18 times through his first four games). Murray was the first overall pick of the 2019 Draft but so far, he's led an offense that looks great in the middle of the field but has bogged down in the red zone. Arizona ranks eighth in the NFL with 22 scoring drives this season but the problem is that 14 of those drives ended with FGs instead of TDs. However, Murray was superb during the Cardinals' game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter last Sunday, igniting it with a 24-yard pass and running for another 24 yards a few plays later, after his intended receiver slipped. Murray became the first rookie QB since Tennessee's Marcus Mariota in 2015 to throw for 250 yards and run for 90 in a game. He currently leads all first-year QBs in passing yards with 1,324. Arizona's had its issues on defense this season (27.6 PPG ranks 28th) but the Cardinals are tied for the NFL lead with 11 forced fumbles. The Cardinals got their first taste of winning last Sunday (on the road, no less) and winning is contagious. However, so is losing. The record book tells us that is was just three years ago (the 2016 season), when the Falcons were playing in the Super Bowl and led the Pats 28-3 in the third quarter. However, that seems like 'light years' ago right now. Atlanta has gone 0-3 SU & ATS on the road this season (allowing 36.0 PPG). Going back to the start of the 2017 season, the Falcons have gone 4-15 ATS on the road, which is a 79% ATS "go-against!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | Eagles v. Vikings -3 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET. The 3-2 Minnesota Vikings have opened the 2019 season alternating wins and losses through their first five games but are hoping to put together back-to-back wins for the first time when they welcome the Philadelphia Eagles to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The Eagles are also 3-2, after back-to-back wins at Green Bay (34-27) and at home to the winless Jets (31-6). Philadelphia became the first team in NFL history to record 10 sacks and score two defensive TDs in its romp over the injury-riddled Jets. As for Vikings, they won for the first time on the road this season last Sunday at the Giants, gaining a season-high 490 yards. Carson Wentz has not done much in Philly's consecutive wins (just a total of 349 passing yards) but he has played well in 2019 (60.3% with 10 TDs and just 2 INTs). Philly's running game is averaging a modest 111.8 YPG (17th) but Jordan Howard has four total TDs while averaging 5.3 YPC over the last two games, establishing himself as Philly's lead back (248 RY / 4.7 YPC / 4 TDs). TE Ertz leads the team in catches (29) but WR Agholor has a team-high four TD catches among his 19 receptions. Philly's rush D is No. 1 in the league (63.0 YPG) but the pass D is allowing 271.2 YPG (27th). Minnesota put some mid-week distractions behind them to dominate the Giants. WR Adam Thielen received an apology from QB Kirk Cousins for several missed throws in Minnesota's 16-6 loss at Chicago on Sep 29 and then went out and delivered season highs in catches (seven), receiving yards (130) and TDs (two) in a 28-10 victory over New York. The Vikes also got 132 yards from RB Dalvin Cook, who has 542 yards on the season on 5.9 YPC with five TDs. Minnesota's 166.4 YPG on the ground ranks 3rd-best in the NFL. QB Kirk Cousins has yet to prove himself since signing that HUGE contract before the 2018 season but he had his best game of 2019 against the Gainst, completing 22 of 27 for 2306 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. He came into the game averaging just 183.8 YPG passing with three TD and two INTs through the first four weeks. My bet says Minnesota head coach 'learned something' last week. Yes, RB Dalvin Cook looks like a star but Cousins has two outstanding WRs (Adam Thielen and Stefan Diggs), who NEED to be a bigger part of the offense. As for Cousins, he owns a career 101.2 passer rating with 17 TD passes in eight career games against the Eagles, whose secondary is decimated with injures to their top four CBs. Philly is averaging 28.2 PPG (7th) but is averaging only 338.2 YPG (24th). That kind of disparity will catch up to them. One last thing. The Vikings are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of six points or less going back to 2015 (that's 77%!). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-19 | Texans v. Chiefs -3.5 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
My 9* NFL Week 6 Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 1:00 ET. The Kansas City Chiefs lost for the first time in 2019 last Sunday night when the Colts beat them 19-13. That loss didn't do the Houston Texans any favors, who were blasting the the Atlanta Falcons 53-32 (Indy's win gives them a 3-2 record, same as Houston). Kansas City was held to a season-low 324 total yards by the Colts, while Houston rolled up a season-high 592 yards against the Falcons. Houston at Kansas City features a matchup of Watson vs Mahomes, who will go head-to-head for the first time since they were selected two picks apart in the 2017 draft (Mahomes was chosen with the 10th overall pick and Watson with the 12th pick). Watson earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors after completing 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards with five TDs and no INTs for a perfect passer rating of 158.3 against the Falcons. However, he's had an up-and-down season. Watson had a QB rating of just 75.3 in Week 5 of a 16-10 home loss to Carolina and in a 13-12 home win over the Jaguars in Week 2, posted a 70.9 QB rating. Watson is getting help from a solid running game averaging 129.4 YPG (10th), which should have success vs a KC rush D allowing 155.8 YPG (30th) on 5.3 YPC (2nd-most in the NFL). However, despite not allowing a single sack vs Atlanta, Houston's OL has allowed the mobile Watson to be sacked 18 times! Mahomes hasn't gotten much help from his running game (88.6 YPG to rank 25th) but for the most part, it hasn't mattered. KC is No. 1 in the NFL in passing (356.0 YPG) and 4th in scoring (29.6 PPG). Mahomes is completing 65.6% for 1,831 yards with 11 TD passes and not a single INT in 195 attempts (QB rating of 114.7). Mahomes has thrived all season plus it's good news that speedster Tyreek Hill is expected to return for this game. I have to like this set-up for KC. The Chiefs are coming off an almost inexplicable 13-point effort last Sunday, while Houston was rolling up 53 points. The Chiefs have scored 30 or more points in 17 of of their last 23 games and have won 10 of their last 14 home games by double-digits. As for Houston, the Texans have scored 28, 13, 27, 10 and 53 points in their five games so far in 2019. Chiefs win and do so comfortably. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-19 | Yankees v. Astros -148 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -148 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Astros at 8:08 ET. The New York Yankees and Houston Astros jockeyed for the top spot in the American League for much of the regular season, so it is only fitting that they will meet in the 2019 ALCS. It's a rematch of the 2017 ALCS when the Astros outlasted the Yankees in seven games. New York comes in off a 3-game sweep of the Twins (outscored Minnesota 23-7), while the Astros were forced to play all FIVE games to eliminate the Rays, (Houston won Games 1 & 2 , lost Games 3 & 4 and then prevailed 6-1 in Game 5). The Game 1 starters will be Masahiro Tanaka (11-9, 4.45 ERA) and Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93 ERA). Tanaka did not have a very good season but he was excellent against the Twins last Saturday, allowing a single run on three hits with seven strikeouts over five solid innings. He is 4-2 with a 1.54 ERA in six career starts in the playoffs, including two in the 2017 ALCS against Houston in which he let up just two runs across 13 total innings. Greinke had a very good season pitching for Arizona and Houston (see above), going 8-1 in 10 starts (team was 8-2) for the Astros after the trade. However, Greinke was awful in Game 3 at Tampa Bay, allowing six runs on five hits (including three HRs) in just 3.2 innings. I realize that Tanaka has a good postseason record but he was very poor on the road in 2019, posting a 6.05 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .287 BAA. Greinke has faced the Yankees twice this season, allowing three runs on seven hits over 12.2 innings (2.13 ERA). One HAS to believe he will be HIGHLY-motivated after that 'ugly' effort vs the Rays. It sure won't hurt his confidence that the Astros are 63-21 at home this season (3-0 at home this postseason), outscoring opponents on average, 6.00-to-3.88 RPG. Let me also remind all that in thae2017 ALCS, the home team won all SEVEN games, with the Astros holding the Yankees to just THREE runs in the four games in Houston. What changes here? Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-19 | Penguins v. Wild -117 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* play is on the Min Wild at 8:30 ET. The Minnesota Wild have opened 0-3-0 and are hoping that some home cookin' will cure what ails them. All three of the Wild's losses have come on the road as head coach Bruce Boudreau noted. "They've been three road games against three tough teams," he said following his team's losses to Central Division rivals Nashville, Colorado and Winnipeg. "Granted, we would have liked to have won one or two of them. But now we get to go home. No excuses." The Penguins, who are dealing with long-term injuries to key performers, salvaged a split of their season-opening four-game homestand with a 2-1 victory over Anaheim this past Thursday Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust, Nick Bjugstad and Alex Galchenyuk are all sidelined by injury, but head coach Mike Sullivan told reporters that he isn't interested in making wholesale changes even with team's injury list growing larger by the day. "I don't think we're going to change our identity or style of play. I think we're going to simplify our style of play," said Sullivan. Minnesota goalie Devan Dubnyk has limped out of the gate this season by yielding 11 goals on 93 shots this season (3.73 GAA / .882 SP). Those numbers are far above his career numbers i]of .255 GAA and .916 SP. Simply put, this marks Pittsburgh's first road game of the season, after the injury-riddled Pens were only able to split four home games. The task gets MUCH tougher here. Goaltender Matt Murray (2.52 GAA / .920 SP) has played all four Penguins games but with the team's first set of back-to-back games this weekend, backup Tristan Jarry stands a good chance of getting his first start of the season (that would be nice). The Wild are OVERDUE to play a good game. The time seems "just right' for that to happen in the club's home opener. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-19 | Capitals +104 v. Stars | Top | 4-1 | Win | 104 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Was Capitals at 8:00 ET. Both Washington (2-1-2) and Dallas (1-3-1) have played nothing but one-goal games this season, including the Stars winning 4-3 (OT) in Pittsburgh this past Tuesday. Both clubs come into this contest off a loss, as Caps blew a two-goal lead in a 6-5 loss at Nashville on Thursday, while the Stars fell to 0-1-1 at home this season after blowing a two-goal lead in a 3-2 shootout setback to Calgary on the same night. Alex Ovechkin scored twice Thursday, giving him three goals this season, as the future Hall of Famer is showing no signs of slowing down. T.J. Oshie is also off to a fast start with three goals, scoring on his only shot against Nashville. Goalie Braden Holtby (1-1-2 with a 3.67 GAA and .868 SP this season is expected between the pipes Saturday but he's 2-4-2 with a 4.02 goals-against average and .867 save percentage in nine career games (eight starts) versus the Stars. Roope Hintz recorded an assist on the power play Thursday for Dallas and is tops on the club with four goals and five points. Tyler Seguin (two) is the only other multiple goal scorer on the team. Goalie Ben Bishop ( with linemates Jamie Benn and Alexander Radulov each tallying once. Ben Bishop is 1-2-1 on the season (2.48 GAA & .910 SP). I like the quick "rematch" situation here and expect the Caps to get some "revenge." Holtby's numbers vs the Stars are a mild concern but Bishop hasn't dome much better in his career vs the Caps. He made 29 saves in Tuesday's win at Washington but is just 4-6-2 with a 3.37 GAA and .891 SP in 13 games against Washington. Holtby is a former Vezina Trophy winner and his goaltending sparked the Caps to their Stanley Cup win in 2018. Washington is the play. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-19 | Navy v. Tulsa OVER 53.5 | Top | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 56 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Total of the Week is on Navy/Tulsa Over at 7:30 ET. Ken Niumatalolo took over at Navy when Paul Johnson moved on to Ga Tech and led the Midshipmen to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. The Middies "fell apart" in 2018, going 3-10. Actually, the team's 'fall' began in 2017, when Navy lost SIX of its last seven regular season games, after opening 5-0. I expected a bounce-back season for Navy in 2019 and so far, so good. The Midshipmen moved to 3-1 on the season last Saturday when QB Malcom Perry scored on a four-yard touchdown run with with 28 seconds remaining against Air Force. That score gave Navy a 28-25 lead, although the final was 34-25, as Navy returned a fumble eight yards for a TD with 0:00 on the clock. Talk about "fantastic finishes," Tulsa had one of its ow last Saturday but the result was not as pleasing. Tulsa led 30-9 at SMU (4-0 and ranked No. 24) into the fourth quarter but saw the Mustangs tie the score at 30-all with just over a minute left in regulation. SMU would win 43-37 in three OTs, after Tulsa's Jacob Rainey missed a game-winning 43-yard FG in the second OT. It comes as no surprise that Navy leads the nation in rushing (312.2 YPG). QB Perry is the team's leading rusher (386 YR / 4.7 YPC / 9 TDs) plus has also shown the ability to complete a few passes when needed (66.7% with 3 TDs and zero INTs). Navy's D has been outstanding, holding opponents to 19.2 PPG (29th) on 278.0 YPG (10th). Tulsa QB Zach Smith has thrown for 1,364 yards (Tulsa ranks 38th with 274.8 YPG through the air) but he gets very little help from a running game averaging only 115.6 YPG (111th) on a woeful 2.8 YPC. The Tulsa D is allowing 29.6 PPG (91st) and has proven in the past that it can't slow down Navy's option (see below). Tulsa's off back-to-back 2-10 and 3-9 seasons and last Saturday's "missed opportunity" was a real 'killer.' 2-3 Tulsa gets Navy here, then plays at current No. 25 Cincinnati, returns home to host current No. 23 Memphis and then plays at Tulane (4-1). Navy played as as an Independent until 2014, before joining the AAC for the 2015 season, The schools have met each of the last four years, with Navy going 4-0 with the average margin of victory checking in at 10.8 PPG. I sure favor Navy but Tulsa can't run the ball, so I expect Smith to air it out against Navy. The Tulsa D won't slow down the Navy option (plus as noted, Perry can make a big play or two with his arm). Navy has won all four meetings with Tulsa since joining the AAC but also note that the four games have averaged 66.3 PPG. That's about two TDs higher than this total. Over is the play. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-19 | Penn State v. Iowa +3.5 | Top | 17-12 | Loss | -118 | 35 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on Iowa at 7:30 ET. Penn State (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) will take its 12-game winning streak (second to only Clemson's 20 straight wins) and its No. 10 ranking in the current AP poll into Iowa City to take on No. 17 Iowa (4-1, 1-1 Big Ten) Saturday night. The Nittany Lions' CFP hopes will likely depend on how they perform during a critcal three- week stretch which begins this Saturday. Penn St will follow this contest with a home date with No. 16 Michigan and then a trip to East Lansing to take on Michigan St. Iowa is likely not seriously thinking o about the CFP but the Hawkeyes have surely NOT tabled hopes of winning the Big Ten West. However, with Wisconsin and Minnesota off to 2-0 stars, Iowa almost HAS to win this one (will play at Wisconsin and then host Minnesota in Nov). Penn State sophomore QB Sean Clifford ranks second among Big Ten passers with 1,443 yards and is third with 12 TD passes (just two INTs in 135 pass attempts). A running-back-by-committee approach (four backs have run for at least 198 yards) is averaging 194.6 YPG (43rd) on 5.4 YPC. Penn St is averaging 47.0 YPPG (5th) on 500.2 YPG (11th). Iowa's offense could not score a TD last week at Michigan, as QB Nate Stanley (who entered the game with eight TD passes and zero INTs), threw three INTs. Stanley, who needs just one TD pass to move into a tie for second in school history, is unlikely to forget that he completed only 18-of-49 passes while throwing two interceptions and getting sacked three times in a 30-24 oss at Penn State last year. However, much like Penn St, Iowa's running game (174.2 YPG on 5.2 YPC) has three players with more than 200 rushing yards. Stanley also has a quartet of receivers all with at least 190 receiving yards. The Nittany Lions have won FIVE straight meetings with the Hawkeyes but note that last season at Penn St, Stanley (who had an awful game / see above) threw a pick at Penn State's goal line with 3:18 left, as the Nittany Lions survived 30-24. The year before (at Iowa), Penn State scored a TD on the game's final play, winning 21-19 on a walk-off TD pass from Trace McSorley. Yes, Penn St has won FIVE in a row but prior to that, the Hawkeyes had won EIGHT of nine in the series, including a last-second 24-23 win in 2008 that knocked Penn State out of the national title chase. Deja vu? Iowa's QB in that 2008 game, Ricky Stanzi, is the team's honorary captain this week. Iowa (especially its defense) will be Penn St's toughest opponent to-date and the Nittany Lions hardly impressed against the team's toughest opponent up to this point. Back on Sep 14, Penn St (-17) barely eked out a 17-10 win against Pittsburgh (was held to just 389 yards). Yes, Penn State's defense is allowing 7.4 PPG (2nd) on 240.4 YPG (4th) but Iowa's D is "right there" with them, allowing just 8.8 PPG (3rd) on 255.0 YPG (5th). Iowa is 14-6-1 ATS a home dog since late 2000 and I'm expecting an OUTRIGHT win in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-19 | Jets v. Blackhawks -120 | 3-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 1 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the Chi Blackhawks at 7:00 ET. Patrik Laine signed late in training camp following a disappointing season but the 21-year-old forward is off to a flying start as the Winnipeg Jets head to Chicago to face the Blackhawks on Saturday. Laine has 10 points in his first five games for the 3-2-0 Jets (Jets have won THREE of four since losing their season-opener). Winnipeg visits a Chicago team that has opened by losing a pair of one-goal contests. Chicago beagn with a 4-3 loss to Philadelphia on Oct 4 in the NHL Global Series in Prague, Czech Republic and then opened a seven-game homestand with a 5-4 loss to the Sharks (it marks San Jose's lone win in a 1-4 start).. Laine finished with 20 assists a season ago but already has SEVEN through five games. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck posted his second consecutive strong outing in Thursday's 5-2 home win over the Wild, with 38 saves. He has stopped 75-of-78 shots across the last two games, giving him a 2.68 GAA and .927 SP on teh season. Chicago was playing its first game six days (after opening the season with that game in Prague) on Thursday and maybe that's why the Blackhawks lost FOUR, one-goal leads in the contest. Chicago goaltender Corey Crawford stopped 29-of-34 shots in Thursday's loss and owns a 4.63 GAA and .875 SP after two games. Robin Lehner, who signed with Chicago as a free agent after playing with the Islanders last season (25-13-5, 2.13 GAA & .930 SP) just may make his debut on Saturday against the Jets. Thursday's loss was the first contest of what will be a SEVEN-game homestand for Chicago and I expect the Blackhawks to grab their first win of the season in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-19 | San Jose State v. Nevada -2.5 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout is on Nevada t 4:00 ET. Nevada began 2019 with a home upset by beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. However, the Wolf Pack lost their second game 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming off a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn. The Wolf Pack then won 19-13 at home vs Weber St and 37-21 on the road at UTEP. Nevada then got lambasted 54-3 at home by Hawaii of Sep 28. I guess the best news here is that the Nevada had a bye the first weekend of October. Nevada will welcome San Jose St to Reno on Saturday. The Spartans come in off a 32-21 win over New Mexico, giving them a 3-2 record. That may not seem like a big deal but when one considers the Spartans were 2-11 in 2017 and 1-11 in 2018, it is. QB Josh Love threw for 405 yards in the win over New Mexico and enters this contest completing 61.9% for 1,418 yards with seven TDs and just one INT. However, the Spartans don't have much of a running game, averaging only 105.8 YPG (119th) on a woeful 3.4 YPC. San Jose is scoring 27.6 PPG, while allowing 27.6. Nevada's defensive numbers are skewered by allowing 77 points to Oregon and 54 to Hawaii. However, the team can't hide its offensive weakness. Nevada is averaging just 19.8 PPG (115th) on 331.2 YPG (114th). It's true that San Jose St has made some significant strides in 2019 but the Spartans come into this contest just 1-14 SU on the road since the beginning of 2017. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-28 SU since 2005 plus has beaten San Jose St in NINE of the last 10 meetings (note: San Jose hasn’t won SU in Reno since 2000!). At this price, the home team is the play! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-19 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio -5 | Top | 39-36 | Loss | -114 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* MAC ATTACK 2 is on Ohio U at 3:30 ET. Many felt as 2019 would be the year that Frank Solich would be able to lead Ohio U to its first MAC title since 1968. The Bobcats opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but then lost THREE in a row. The first two were on the road, 20-10 at Pitt on Sep 7 and 33-31 at Marshall on Sep 14. Ohio welcomed ULL to Athens on Sep 21 and entered that contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Ohio had averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak but got CRUSHED 45-25 by the Ragin' Cajuns. The Bobcats had the final weekend of September off and opened their MAC schedule at Buffalo last Saturday. The Bobcats and Buffs were tied at 14 and went to OT. Buffalo scored first but missed the PAT. Ohio gave the ball to RB Allison on all five of its plays in overtime and won it 21-20 on his five-yard TD run and a successful PAT, Ohio (2-3 / 1-0 MAC) returns home to host Northern Illinois. The Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seassons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. So far, NOT so good . Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies have lost FOUR in a row, since. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies rank 42nd in passing (266.2 YPG) but QB Ross Bowers is completing just 56.9% with 4 TDs and 4 INTs. The running game stinks, averaging 97.4 YPG (122nd). The defense allows a relatively modest 363.4 YPG (49th) but gives up 28.0 PPG (78th). Ohio OB Nathan Rourke was expecting a big season after passing for 2,431 yards (with 23 TD passes) and rushing for 860 yards (with 15 TDs) in 2018. However, he's got just 250 rushing yards (3 TDs) and 1,012 passing yards (6 TDs) so far in 2019. Ohio's D is allowing 27.6 PPG (74th) on 446.8 YPG (108th). The Bobcats have disappointed so far but they are 1-0 in MAC play and just maybe, last Saturday's OT win is what the team needed to jump-start its MAC season. Northern Illinois in 2019 looks NOTHING like past editions (12 bowls the last 15 seasons) and its lone with has come over Illinois St, an FCS member. NIU is 0-3 on the road, getting outscored on average, 34.3-to-14.3 PPG. Remember, before losing at home to ULL on Sep 21, Ohio had won 10 straight at home, averaging 47.0 PPG. Let's not count out Ohio U just yet in its quest for its first MAC title since 1968,. Lay it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-19 | Memphis v. Temple +5.5 | Top | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET. The Tigers travel to Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, Pa) this Saturday to take on fellow AAC rival Temple. The Owls entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with their THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six year as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. In Temple's second game of 2019, the Owls upset then-No. 21 Maryland 20-17 (as five-point home dog), one week after the Terps had ripped Syracuse for 63 points. Temple suffered a let down of its own the following Saturday, losing 38-22 at Buffalo, as a two-TD road favorite. However, the Owls have rebounded to beat Georgia Tech (24-2) and East Carolina (27-17) in their last two games, allowing an average of just 316 yards per game in the two victories Memphis QB Brady White threw three TD passes and RB Kenneth Gainwell chipped in 209 rushing yards and two scores in the Tigers' 52-33 win last Saturday. The Memphis offense (39.8 PPG ranks 16th) owns excellent balance, passing for 246.6 YPG (65th) and rushing for 214.4 YPG (32nd). White is completing 71.7% (11-3 ratio) and Gainwell has 620 rushing yards (8.2 YPC and 6 TDs). The defense is allowing 19.2 PPG (27th) on 325.4 YPG (35th). Temple is averaging 29.8 PPG (68th) on 445.2 YPG (35th) but neither QB Russo (58.9% with an 11-6 ratio) nor RB Davis (563 RY / 6.0 YPC / 4 TdD) are quite as good as their Memphis counterparts (While and Gainwell). However, the Temple D is every bit as good, and slightly better than Memphis', allowing 17.2 PPG (19th) on 292.8 YPG (20th). This is a tough spot for Memphis, as QB White will be facing the best D he's seen all year (he under-performed vs Ole Miss out of the SEC), as Temple ranks 3rd in pass efficiency. Temple's Russo has a strong arm and is off his first error-free game of season in the 27-17 win at East Carolina (23-34 for 208 yards with one TD and zero INTs) plus RB Davis ran for 157 yards (6.5 YPC). The Memphis D is in for a test. Temple is 3-0 SU & ATS at home this season (outscoring opponents 33.3-to-10.3 PPG) and checks in 7-1 ATS (88%) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). The LONE loss as a home dog in that stretch was to UCF in 2017, when the Knight's went 13-0. This Memphis team may be 5-0 and ranked 23rd but it is NOT in the class of that 2017 UCF team. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals -120 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* NLCS Game 1 Opener is on the St Louis at 8:08 ET. The Yankees made short work of the Twins and the Astros, the team with MLB's best record in 2019, were able to put away the Rays with a 6-1 Game 5 win on Thursday, as the two ALDS matchups were won by the AL's two-best teams. However, form didn't hold over in the NL, where the two underdogs prevailed in the NLDS matchups. Both series went a full five games, with the St Louis Cardinals winning 13-1 at the 97-win Atlanta Braves and the wild-card Washington Nationals overcoming a 3-0 deficit to win 7-3 (10 innings) at the 106-win Los Angeles Dodgers. The NLCS opens Friday and while the Nationals won 93 games, the 91-win Cardinals won the NL Central which earns them the home field advantage in the seven-game series. Taking the mound for Game 1 will be Anibal Sanchez (0-0, 1.80 ERA) and Miles Mikolas (1-0, 1.50 ERA). Sanchez was a pleasant surprise last season after signing with Atlanta during spring training, going 7-6 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. However, he signed a two-year deal in the off-season with Washington. Sanchez opened 0-6 with a 5.10 ERA through nine starts (team was 3-6). He suffered a left hamstring strain in May that cost him 10 days on the injured list and he missed one start. However, he returned to the rotation to help fuel Washington's surge after the team went 19-31 in its first 50 games. Sanchez would go 8-0 with a 3.21 ERA over a 16-start unbeaten stretch from May 29 through Aug 30 (he allowed three ERs or less in 13 of those 16 starts with the Nats going 11-5) but then faltered in his first two starts of Sep. He lost 8-4 at home to the Mets and then 5-0 at Minnesota (6.75 ERA), before winning his final three regular season starts (2.37 ERA). Sanchez pitched well in Game 3 vs the Dodgers (5 IP / 1 ER / 9 Ks), leaving with a 2-1 lead after five innings but watched Patrick Corbin and the bullpen allow SEVEN runs in the sixth inning of a 10-4 LA win. Mikolas was an All-Star selection last season for the Cards, going 18-4 with a 2.83 ERA (Cards were 24-8 in his 32 starts, giving him an outstanding plus-$1,418 moneyline mark). However, one season after tying for the NL lead in wins, his 14 losses in 2019 were tied for the most losses. St Louis went 17-15 in his starts (-$132), quite a drop-off from his 2018 numbers. Mikolas pitched reasonably well at home (3.01 ERA / 1.05 WHIP / .247 BAA) but struggled badly on the road (5.40 ERA / 1.42 WHIP / .297 BAA). Mikolas got the nod in Game 1 of the NLDS and held Atlanta to one run on three hits over five innings without factoring in the decision. He came out of the bullpen in Monday's Game 4 and earned a victory with a perfect 10th inning when Yadier Molina provided a walk-off RBI sac fly in the bottom of the inning. The Nats' turnaround has been something (76-38, .667 after their 19-31 start) but don't be too quick to dismiss the Cards' excellent play after the All Star break, as St Louis went 47-27 (.635) after the break. Washington is playing in the franchise's first NLCS since the Montreal Expos lost in five games to the Los Angeles Dodgers in 1981. Meanwhile, the Cards have played is six World Series since 1982, winning three titles. The Expos became the Nationals in 2005 and after failing to advance to the NLCS in four previous tries (all since 2012), the Nats FINALLY won an NLDS matchup. In stark contrast, the Cards have made the playoffs 13 times since 2000 and have now advanced to the NLCS for the 10th time in that span. Maybe it is "finally Washington's time" but seeing is believing. I've got the Cards in Game 1. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-11-19 | Colorado State -3 v. New Mexico | Top | 35-21 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Colorado St at 8:00 ET. The 1-5 Colorado State Rams (0-2 in MWC play) travel to Albuquerque to face the 2-3 New Mexico Lobos at Dreamstyle Stadium on Friday night. Former Georgia QB Mike Bobo took over at CSU in 2015, getting his first head coaching job. He led the Rams to three straight 7-6 seasons but each one ended with a bowl loss. The 2018 season was a 'disaster,' as CSU went just 3-9, its worst record since 2011. Clearly, the team's 1-5 start has CSU backers worried. As for New Mexico, Bob Davie came out of the TV booth/studio to take over at Albuquerque back in 2012. Davie was best known for his poor five-year run at Notre Dame (1997-2001) in which he suffered two losing seasons plus lost bowl games at the end of his three winning years. His first three New Mexico teams went 11-26 but he then but together back-to-back winning seasons (2015 & 2016), losing the New Mexico Bowl in 2015 but winning it in 2016. However, the Lobos went 3-9 in both the 2017 and 2018 seasons, going 1-7 in MWC play each year. The Lobos have opened the 2019 season 2-3 (0-1 in MWC play) CSU is almost assured of a second straight losing season but the team's 1-5 record is somewhat deceiving. The Rams opened 2019 against in-state rival Colorado of the Pac-12, and following a win over Western Illinois, the Rams have faced the SEC’s Arkansas, 4-1 Toledo, and solid MWC schools Utah State (3-2) and San Diego State (4-1). Starting QB Collin Hill (67.5% & an 8-2 ratio) was lost for the season to a knee injury in the game at Arkansas but back-up Patrick O'Brien rallied the team from a 14-point, first half deficit to tie it at 34-all (Arkansas would win the 4Q, 21-0). However, O'Brien has thrown for 839 yards in his three starts (279.7 YPG). New Mexico got blasted 66-14 at Notre Dame (Welcome Back, Dave) and its lone two wins in 2019 have come at home against Sam Houston State (FSC) and 0-6 New Mexico St (one of three winless teams in 2019). New Mexico owns a solid running game (212.4 YPG ranks 33rd) but its defense is among the worst in the nation, allowing 39.6 PPG (126th) on 513.8 YPG (127th). CSU badly needs a win and New Mexico St sets up as the perfect foil. The Rams have beaten the Lobos NINE straight times (average margin of victory being a right at two TDs), including all SEVEN since Davie took over in 2012 (6-1 ATS). Want more? The Lobos are 2-15 SU in MWC game since the start of 2017. There is a reason this 1-5 team is a road favorite! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-10-19 | Ducks v. Penguins -136 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 36-Club Play is on the Pit Penguins at 7:00 ET. The Anaheim Ducks finished last season just 35-37-10 (80 points) and found themselves on the outside looking in on the 2019 postseason. It marked an end to SIX consecutive playoff appearances for the Kings and going back further, a run of 12 postseason appearances over a 15-year span (Ducks lost a Stanley Cup Final in 2003 but won the Cup in 2007). The Ducks will play the second contest of their four-game road trip against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Thursday, having opened 3-0-0. The Penguins made the playoffs for the 13th consecutive season in 2018-19 and have won three Stanley Cups in that span, in 2009, 2016 and 2017. However, the Penguins have opened the current season 1-2-0 and are facing early adversity in the form of long-term injuries John Gibson's sterling play between the pipes has been the common theme in all three of Anaheim's victories this season. He has turned aside 98 of 101 shots (.970 save percentage) while allowing just one goal in each contest (1.00 GAA). Anaheim showed its resolve in scoring three times in the third period on Tuesday, to earn a 3-1 win at Detroit. The Ducks are scoring only 2.67 GPG, surviving on the play of Gibson and the team's entire defense. Anaheim's penalty killing unit has been superb in front of Gibson, killing off all seven opponent power plays, giving the unit a "perfect score" by going 27 of 27, including the preseason. I noted Pittsburgh's injury woes at the top. The Pens are without centers Evgeni Malkin and Nick Bjugstad plus winger Bryan Rust (all are out for an extended period of time), and then lost winger Patric Hornqvist on Tuesday in the first period of a 4-1 loss against Winnipeg when he got hit by a shot taken by teammate Kris Letang. Pittsburgh head coach Mike Sullivan said Hornqvist and Galchenyuk are day-to-day because of lower-body injuries, which is better news than he has had on other injured players lately, but that does not mean one or both will be available against the Ducks. "John Gibson has got a massive amount of leadership skills in him and he's the best goalie in the game," new coach Dallas Eakins said after his netminder's 31-save performance in Tuesday's 3-1 win over Detroit.To put it mildly, that's VAST overstatement! Yes, Anaheim has opened with three straight wins but the first two came over Arizona and San Jose, teams which are 0-6-0 to open the season. Eakins may think Gibson's "the best in the game" but he should look at Matt Murray's resume, which includes winning back-to-back Stanley Cups in his first two seasons of his career (Murray is in his fourth season). Pittsburgh is far from 100 percent but Anaheim hasn't opened 4-0 in its history (first season was 1993-94) and Gibson owns a 4-4-0 record with a 3.80 goals-against average and .886 save percentage in eight career starts vs the Pens. 'Jump' all over Pittsburgh in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-09-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers -154 | 7-3 | Loss | -154 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
My 7* Game 5 Decider is on the LA Dodgers at 8:37 ET. The Nats are best-known for their playoff failures but after a 19-31 start in 2019, Washington finished on a 74-38 run. The Nats beat the Brewers in the wild card game & now it's a deciding Game 5 vs the Dodgers (the NL's best team all season, finishing with 13 more wins than the Nats). The Dodgers made short work of the Washington Nationals in Game 1 by winning 6-0. However, LA's bats went quiet in Game 2 against Stephen Strasburg (6 IP / 1 ER / 10Ks) and three relievers, falling 4-2. Those LA bats remained quiet again in Game 3, as LA entered the sixth inning of Game 3 behind 2-1. However, the Dodgers scored SEVEN times with two outs in the sixth inning on Sunday, en route to a 10-4 victory that gave them a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five series. Game 4 saw two 35-yerar-old Washington players, Scherzer (7 IP / 1 ER) and Zimmerman (3-run HR in the 5th), help the Nats tie the series up at two-all with a 6-1 win in Game 4. It's a terrific pitching matchup in Game 5, as Stephen Strasburg (2019 postseason: 2-0, 1.00 ERA ) squares off against Walker Buehler (2019 postseason: 1-0, 0.00 ERA). Strasburg had the best regular season of his career (18-6, 3.32 ERA / 1.4 WIP / .210 BAA). and while he's a modest 3-2 in the postseason (five appearances / four starts), let's look closer. His postseason ERA is 0.64, the lowest in playoff history with a minimum of four starts (also owns an 0.82 WHIP). Hard to argue too strongly against Strrasburg but Buehler has earned his way past Kershaw to become LA's 'ace.' Buehler was 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA over 30 regular season starts (team was 20-10) with a 1.04 WHIP, .223 BAA and 215-37 KW ratio. Buehler allowed just one hit and three walks while striking out eight across six innings of a 6-0 victory in Game 1 on Thursday. He is 7-1 with a 2.68 ERA in 15 starts at Dodger Stadium this season and 11-5 with a 2.52 ERA at home in 33 career games (29 starts) including the postseason. Recapping from above, the Dodgers were 13 wins better this season than the Nats plus LA's run-differential was an NL-best plus-273, compared to Washington's plus-149. The Dodgers will take the field with a 60-23 record at Chavez Ravine, outscoring opponents on average, 5.41-to-3.31 RPG. The Expos became the Nats in 2005 but the franchise has yet to advance to an NLCS matchup. Why start here, especially against Buehler? He dominated in Game 163 last year, when the Dodgers handled the Colorado Rockies 5-2 in a regular-season tiebreaker to win the NL West, pitching six scoreless innings of one-hit ball. Including his Game 1 start of this series, Buehler takes the mound having allowed just one ER over his last three postseason starts (0.51 ERA) with a 22-3 KW ratio! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-09-19 | Appalachian State v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 17-7 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* SBC Game of the Month is on ULL at 8:00 ET. The Appalachian State Mountaineers competed in the Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) from its founding in 1978 to 2013. They won three straight national championships from 2005 to 2007, the first FCS team to do so since the playoffs began in 1978. The school has competed in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) and the Sun Belt Conference since 2014. Appalachian St became the first FCS team to receive votes in the final AP college football poll on January 8, 2008. The Mountaineers became ranked in the AP top-25 poll (at No. 25) on October 21, 2018, for the first time. The 4-0 Mountaineers travel to Louisiana-Lafayette to take on the Ragin’ Cajuns in Sun Belt Conference action on Wednesday. App St is 4-0 and owns the third-longest active winning streak in CFB at 10 in a row, while ULL checks in at 4-1 (both schools are 1-0 in SBC play). This is a rematch of last year's SBC championship game, won by Appalachian State at home, 30-19 (the Mountaineers also won at home in the regular season, 27-17). App St owns a very balanced offense, averaging 204.8 YPG passing and 224.5 YPG rushing (47.0 PPG, 5th-best in the nation). QB Zac Thomas has completed 71.9% for 802 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. He finished with 21 TDPs and 10 rushing TDs last season, going 10-1 as the team's starter. He's now 14-1 as a starter and has led the Mountaineers to those 10 straight wins! The defense allows 420.0 YPG (94th) and 29.0 PPG (86th) but when a team is scoring 47.0 PPG, that can be overlooked. The Ragin’ Cajuns are averaging 44,4 4 PPG (9th-best), led by the nation's top rushing offense. ULL averages 314.0 YPG on a WHOPPING 7.3 YPC. It has two VERY dangerous backs, Ragas (548 yards / 9.8 YPC / 6 TDs) and Mitchell (402 yards / 6.0 YPC / 9 TDs). The defense allows a more modest 24.1 PPG (41st) and features a very athletic secondary. ULL opened the season by losing 38-28 to Miss St in the Superdome (covered as a 19-point dog) but has since gone 4-0 SU & ATS. Yes, ULL has lost all six meetings with App St since 2014 (including two last season) but the matchups favor them in this one. ULL’s athletic secondary ranks 13th nationally in pass defense efficiency and Appalachian State QB Zac Thomas could (should) have problems. App State’s defense hasn’t played well, allowing 109 points its last three games (36.3 PPG), to Charlotte, UNC and Coastal Carolina and overall, ranks 117th in red zone D. The team's rush D will be severely tested by ULL's top-ranked rushing attack. The last time App St lost a league game was Oct 25, 2018 at Georgia Southern (34-14), when the Eagles ran for 277 yards (5.5 YPC). The Ragin' Cajuns are the ONLY school of 130 playing in the FBS to be unbeaten ATS (5-0). Expect ULL to control the ball and clock and finally break through vs Appalachian State, keeping the team's perfect ATS mark in tack. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-09-19 | Cardinals -110 v. Braves | Top | 13-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* NLDS Clincher is on the StL Cardinals at 5:02 ET. The Braves were down 1-0 going into the 9th inning of Game 3 but back-to-back run-scoring hits allowed them to rally for a stunning 3-1 victory. Atlanta led Game 4 by one run in the 8th on Monday but this time it was the Cards turn to rally, tying it in the bottom of the 8th and winning it in the bottom of the 10th. That set up this Game 5 in Atlanta, as the Braves look to win their first postseason series since 2001. Game 5 is a pitching rematch of Game 2, as Jack Flaherty squares off against Mike Foltynewicz. The Cards could hardly blame their Game 2 loss on Flaherty, who gave up a first-inning run and then two-run HR in the seventh (8-1 KW ratio) in his postseason debut. Flaherty has been the Cards best pitcher post-July 4th, as he ended the regular season allowing two ERs or less in 15 of his last 16 starts. In those final 16 starts, he allowed just 11 ERs over 92.1 innings for an 0.91 ERA! Foltynewicz dominated the Cardinals in Game 2, striking out seven with no walks and three hits allowed in seven scoreless innings to earn his first career postseason victory. That effort continued his revival since returning from a mid-summer trip to the minors. The 28-year-old owned a 6.37 ERA when he was sent to the minors in late June. He returned in early August and hardly impressed in his first two starts, allowing seven ERs over 11.1 innings (5.56 ERA). However, over his last nine starts (including Game 2 of this series), he's 5-1 with a 1.69 ERA dating to Aug 17, allowing 10 ERs on 35 hits in 53.1 innings with a 48-13 KW. Both pitchers are 'on fire' but I always look to "play on" the loser of the first meeting in a quick "re-hook" situation. What's more, history is on the Cards side. The Braves squandered numerous chances to clinch the series in Game 4, which hardly bodes well for a franchise that hasn't advanced to a League Championship Series since 2001. Five more teams own that distinction (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh San Diego, Seattle and Washington) but while those five franchises have made a total of 14 postseason appearances in that time frame, the Braves have made NINE, all by themselves. As for the Cardinals, they have won FOUR series this century in which they were a loss away from elimination (the 2004 NLCS, the 2011 NLDS, the 2011 World Series and the 2013 NLDS). Cards win and then await the Was/LAD winner. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-08-19 | Bruins v. Golden Knights -138 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -138 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Veg Knights at 10:05 ET. The Boston Bruins lost Game 7 of the 2019 Stanley Cup Final 4-1 at home to the St Louis Blues but have opened the current season by winning their first two games, both on the road. The Bruins continue their season-opening four-game road trip with a visit to the Vegas Golden Knights on Tuesday night. Vegas lost the 2018 Stanley Cup Final to the Washington Caps (4 games to 1) and like Boston, has opened the new season with two wins. The Bruins have eked out two one-goal wins, at Dallas (2-1) and then at Arizona (1-0). The Bruins are averaging only 23.0 shots on goal, ranking LAST of the NHL 31 teams. The team's 1.50 GPG average ranks 27th. Boston's top line of Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak were among the league's most potent units last season, combining for 108 goals, but they have managed only two points thus far. Tuukka Rask stopped 28 of 29 shots at Dallas and Jaroslav Halak had 35 saves for his 48th career shutout in the win over the Coyotes. Either goalie will represent a challenge for Vegas. As opposed to Boston, scoring has not been been an issue for Vegas, as the Golden Knights have posted NINE goals in completing a home-and-home sweep of San Jose. The Golden Knights jumped out to early 2-0 leads in the first period of each of their first two games plus owns three short-handed goals, as well. The Golden Knights' top line is centered by William Karlsson, who plays with wingers Mark Stone and Reilly Smith. Stone has a team-high four points, while Karlsson and Smith each have three points. Smith and Karlsson also play on the team's top line and are the main reason Vegas has snuffed out all 10 short-handed situations. Goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury has stopped 55 of the 57 shots he's faced (1.00 GAA & .965 SP). Marc-Andre Fleury was drafted first overall by the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2003 NHL Entry Draft. He joined the Penguins in 2003–04 and during his 13 seasons with the team won Stanley Cup championships in 2009, 2016, and 2017. However, with the emergence of Matt Murray, Fleury willingly waived his no trade and no movement clauses to be left exposed by the Penguins for 2017 NHL Expansion Draft, where he was subsequently selected by the Vegas Golden Knights. He's been the backbone of the team in its first two season and is expected to be so again this year. The Bruins remain on the road and the team has yet to 'unlock' its offense. No reason to expect that to change here, vs Fleury. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-07-19 | Yankees v. Twins +137 | 5-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* MLB Las Vegas Insider is on the Min Twins. The New York Yankees have outscored the Minnesota Twins 18-6 at Yankee Stadium Friday and Saturday to take a 2-0 lead in this ALDS. The Twins have now dropped a record 15 consecutive postseason games, 12 of them to the Yankees.Is Game 3 just a formality? The Yankees look for their third straight ALDS sweep against the Twins behind right-hander Luis Severino (1-1, 1.50 ERA) Minnesota will try to stay alive with veteran Jake Odorizzi (15-7, 3.51 ERA). Severino was New York's 'ace' in 2018, going 19-8 witha 3.39 ERA in 32 starts (Yanks were 24-8, +$658). However, he missed most of 2019 with shoulder and lat issues. He made his 2019 debut on Sep 17 and threw nine scoreless innings over his first two starts but then allowed two runs in just three innings at Texas in his last outing on Sep 28. Is he ready for primetime (the postseason)? He hasn't been in the past, as he's struggled in the playoffs. He owns a 6.26 ERA in his six career postseason starts (Yanks are 3-3), working beyond five innings only ONCE. Odorizzi was a disappointing 7-10 (4.49 ERA) in his first season with Minnesota last year (was signed as a FA away from Tampa Bay) but opened 2019 by going 9-2 with a 1.92 ERA through June 9 (team was 10-3 in his starts). Odorizzi was an All-Star for the first time in 2019 but missed a chance to pitch in his first All-Star Game due to a blister on his right middle finger. He struggled for all of July but went 2-1 with a 2.86 ERA in five August starts (Twins were 4-1) and 1-1 with 3.27 ERA in four September starts (Twins were 3-1). He finished the season with Minnesota going 21-9 in his 30 starts, earning a profit of $1,031. OK, Minnesota has lost 15 straight postseason games and 10 in a row at home. That said, aren't the Twins due (overdue)? Severino has hardly pitched in 2019 and owns a poor playoff history, including a dismal outing against the Twins in the 2017 Wild Card Game when he allowed three runs while recording just ONE out! Meanwhile, Odorizzi has allowed three ERs or less in each of his final 10 starts in the regular season, finishing with six innings of one-run ball in a 4-2 win at Detroit on Sep 24. Minnesota gets off the schneid with a "W" in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-07-19 | Sabres v. Blue Jackets -115 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Game of the Week is on the Col Blue Jackets at 7:00 ET. The Buffalo Sabres finished last season 33-39-10 (76 points), missing the postseason for the EIGHTH straight year (was also the team's SEVENTH straight losing season). In stark contrast, the Columbus Blue Jackets were able to sneak into the postseason by going 47-31-4 (98 points), claiming the East's No. 8 seed. Columbus was 'rewarded' by drawing the NHL's top team, the Tampa Bay Lightning which had 128 points. In a MAJOR upset, the Blue Jackets swept the Lightning in four games and then took a 2-1 lead over the Bruins, before losing three in a row. The two teams meet tonight in Columbus but it's the Sabres who have gotten off to a 2-0-0 start, not the 0-2-0 Blue Jackets. Buffalo opened teh season with a 3-1 win at Pittsburgh and then routed New Jersey 7-2 in its home opener on Saturday. Four players have recorded at least three points over the first two contests, with defenseman Rasmus Dahlin leading the charge with four. Ralph Krueger is just the fourth coach in franchise history to win his first two games, joining Marcel Pronovost (1977), Scotty Bowman (1979) and Jim Roberts (1981). Columbus has surrendered 11 goals while scoring just three in losing its first two games, after falling 7-2 in Pittsburgh on Saturday. Obviously, the Blue Jackets have struggled defensively, which is unlike a John Tortorella-coached team. "(The Penguins) end up scoring a few goals and then we lose our composure as far as how we have to play," Tortorella told the Blue Jackets' official website. "It just gives me a great opportunity to start teaching as far as what the patience of our game has to be." This is a GREAT spot for Columbus and I'll support the feelings of the Blue Jackets' 21-year-old center Pierre-Luc Dubois who said, "We're a (freaking) good team. We just have to believe in it." this relatively young Columbus club allowed five second-period goals during Saturday's ugly 7-2 loss at Pittsburgh. Columbus last opened with three straight defeats in 2015-16 and I say that "AIN'T happening here!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-07-19 | Dodgers v. Nationals -130 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Was Nationals at 6:40 ET. The Los Angeles Dodgers made short work of the Washington Nationals in Game 1 by winning 6-0. However, LA's bats went quiet in Game 2 against Stephen Strasburg (6 IP / 1 ER / 10Ks) and three relievers (including Scherzer, who struck out all three batters in a one-inning effort), falling 4-2. Those LA bats remained quiet again in Game 3, as LA entered the sixth inning of Game 3 behind 2-1. However, the Dodgers scored SEVEN times with two outs in the sixth inning on Sunday, en route to a 10-4 victory that gave them a 2-1 lead in the best-of-five series. Cody Bellinger recorded his first two hits of the series in the sixth inning while Russell Martin lined a two-run double and Justin Turner launched a three-run homer during the uprising for Los Angeles, which had scored three runs in its previous 14 innings. Juan Soto’s two-run HR in the first inning held up for the Nats until they went to the bullpen in the sixth and were ONE strike away from getting out of the innings. It was NOT to be and now the Nats are ONE loss away from ending another postseason in disappointing fashion. Rich Hill (4-1, 2.45 ERA) will take the mound for LA and Max Scherzer (11-7, 292 ERA / 0-0, 4.50 this postseason) for Washington. Hill gave up one run on one hit and six walks with 11 strikeouts over 5.2 innings in three starts in September (team was 3-0), after missing almost three months with a forearm strain. He made only 13 starts in an injury-interrupted season but LA did go 10-3. As you can see, LA limited his pitch counts since his return. The 39-year-old is 1-2 with a 3.04 ERA in 12 career postseason appearances (11 starts), with all but one occurring with the Dodgers. Manager Dave Martinez decided to pull back Scherzer from a Game 3 start, giving the three-time Cy Young Award winner an extra day after striking out the side in one inning of Game 2 on Friday. The 35-year-old started the wild-card game on Tuesday and was reached for three runs in the first two innings (two HRs) but settled down before leaving after five innings. Scherzer is 4-5 with a 3.78 ERA in 18 career playoff games but his teams are just 4-10 in his 14 starts (hardly deserved a win in the wild card game). Washington looked like it was in "good shape" into the 6th inning for Game 3 and again, was just ONE staike (or made out) away from leading no worse than 2-1 into the 7th but......Scherzer has NOT performed all that well in the postseason but if not now, when? Hill has been critical of getting pulled early in recent playoff starts but says he is not worried about whether the Dodgers will limit his innings. "Pitch count, whatever it is, I can't control that," Hill told reporters. "Whatever I can give the team, I'm going to give the team. And the decision that's made is going to be made obviously beyond my control. So that's first and foremost. And my expectations are to go out there and have the ball come out of my hand the way I want it to every time. So that's something that hasn't changed in a long time for me, and that's been pretty consistent, and it will be (Monday)." Sound good but I think Washington can (and will) get to him. It's about time for Scherzer to pitch like a three-time Cy Young winner and if he does, we are headed to a Game 5 in LA featuring Strasburg and Buehler (great matchup). My bet says we're back to Chavez Ravine on Wednesday for Game 5. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-07-19 | Braves v. Cardinals -123 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Division Series G.O.Y. is on the StL Cards at 3:07 ET. The Atlanta Braves lost Game 1 at home to the Cardinals 7-6 (Cards won the 9th inning, 4-3) but then won 3-0 in Game 2, as the red-hot Mike Foltynewicz (7 scoreless innings) out-dueled the equally red-hot Jack Flaherty (7 IP / 3 ERs). However, the Braves seemed 'dead in the water' in Game 3 at St Louis, entering the 9th inning down 1-0 (veteran Wainwright pitched 7.2 scoreless innings) and looked as if they would be facing elimination in Game 4. However, Dansby Swanson and Adam Duvall came through to push the team within one win of its first appearance in the NL Championship Series in 18, delivering back-to-back run-scoring hits as the Braves rallied for a stunning 3-1 victory. Cardinals closer Carlos Martinez got the blown save and the loss and has struggled mightily in the series, surrendering six runs on five hits and three walks over just 2.1 innings. It's now the Cards facing elimination in Game 4 but the good news is that they will have Daniel Hudson (16-7, 3.35 ERA) on the mound. Hudson emerged as an anchor of the Cardinals' rotation while making 32 starts. He tied for third in the NL in victories and 11th in ERA, while recording the most wins by a rookie since Justin Verlander registered 17 with Detroit in 2006. The Cards were just 3-5 in his first eight starts but then won 19 of his last 24, with Hudson allowing less that three ERs in 22 of them! He finished the regular season by going 6-1 with a 1.86 ERA over his final nine starts, holding opponents to a .146/.268/.264 slash line. Hudson, who went 9-2 with a 2.75 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in 17 home starts (team was 13-4). Atlanta held back on announcing who will start but it looks like Dallas Keuchel (8-8, 3.75 ERA). I don't get it. Many feel that Keuchel has provided Atlanta with needed veteran presence, giving up two ERs or less in SEVEN of his last nine starts. However, the Braves were just 10-9 in his 18 overall starts and Keuchel struggled on the road, with a 5.01 ERA, 1.63 WHIP and .296 BAA in nine starts. In 10 home starts he owned a 2.74 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .239 BAA. He got the Game 1 start and gave up one run on five hits with three walks over 4.2 innings. Why not Teheran here, as he gave up two of fewer ERs in 21 of his 33 regular-season starts? 'LOVE' Hudson over Keuchel (on THREE days' rest) in this spot. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-07-19 | Astros v. Rays +137 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 137 | 6 h 15 m | Show |
My 9* Daytime Dominator is on the TB Rays at 1:05 ET. The Houston Astros are on the verge of sweeping their ALDS matchup with the Tampa Rays. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole combined to allow five hits and strike out 23 over 14.2 innings in Games 1 and 2 plus some timely hitting have Houston one win away from moving on the ALCS for a THIRD consecutive year. Tampa Bay entered MLB back in 1998 and opened with 10 straight losing seasons. However, the Rays would make a World Series run in 2008, where they lost 4-1 to the Phillies. That began a stretch of four postseason appearances in the next six years. However, the Rays surprised by earning a wild card berth in 2019 (first postseason appearance since 2013), beating the A's 5-1 in Wednesday's wild card game. The Rays have scored just THREE runs in the two losses and clearly have 'a big hill to climb' to get back into the series Taking the mound for Game 3 will be Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93 ERA) and Charlie Morton ( (16-6, 3.05 ERA / 1-0, 0.00 ERA in the postseason). Greinke will get first crack at clinching the best-of-five series for the Astros and he went 8-1 with a 3.02 ERA in 10 starts (Astros went 8-2) after being acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the trade deadline.Is it a concern that he's pitching for the first time since Sep 25? The good news for Tampa Bay is that it has its best pitcher taking the mound in this elimination game. Morton's last three season have been remarkable. He entered MLB back in 2008 with Atlanta and when the Astros signed him a two-year, $14 million contract after the 2016 season, Morton owned a career record of 46-71 (included him going 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA with Pittsburgh in 2010). What were the Astros thinking? Well, Morton went 14-7 for Houston in 2017, helping them to the franchise's first-ever World Series title. He followed with a 15-3 season in 2018, then the Rays signed Morton to a two-year, $30 million contract before the 2019 season. All Morton did during the regular season to go 16-6 (22-11 in team starts). Doing the math, after opening his career 46-71 in nine seasons, he's 45-16 these last THREE seasons. Morton pitched the Rays into the ALDS with a very good performance in the Wild Card Game against Oakland on Wednesday, scattering five hits and an unearned run over five innings to earn the win. Morton has not taken a loss in his last five postseason appearances, four of which he made for the Astros in 2017 and 2018. He went the final four innings of the 2017 World Series-clinching victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 7. As for Greinke, I do NOT think it's good news that he hasn't pitched in almost two e=weeks. I'll also note that Greinke's worst start since joining Houston came against Tampa Bay back on Aug 29, when he was reached for five ERs on six hits over 5.2 innings. "These guys do a good job of controlling the situation," Rays manager Kevin Cash told reporters. "I don't think there's a real message. They know what's at stake. They've played so well all season long. We're going to have to have some things go in our favor now going forward, but we're capable of playing a really good game on Monday and see where that takes us."Rays 'live' to 'fight' another day. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-19 | Colts +11 v. Chiefs | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show | |
My 8* SNF Magic is on the Ind Colts at 8:20 ET. The 4-0 Kansas City Chiefs are one of three undefeated teams in the NFL and host the 2-2 Indianapolis Colts is the SNF Week 5 game. It's a rematch of an AFC Divisional Round matchup last season, when KC defeated the Colts 31-13 (marking KC's first home playoff win in 25 years!). Of course, Andrew Luck was Indy's QB in that one but his abrupt retirement means it will be Jacoby Brissett going up against Patrick Mahomes. Truth is, Indianapolis hasn’t fallen off too far offensively with Brissett at the Helm. He's completing 65.2% for 911 yards with 10 TDs and just two INTs (102.1 QB rating). He's also been able to rely on a very improved running game, which ranks 7th by averaging 132.5 YPG on 4.6 YPC. Marlon Mack has been especially effective, rushing for 338 yards (4.7 YPC). Indy's D is middle-of-the-pack and it's hard seeing them slowing down Mahomes, too much. He's completing 67.9% for 1,510 yards with 10 TDs and zero INTs (120.4 QB rating). All this, despite the absence of speedster Tyreek Hill (he returned to practice this week). With or without Hill, Mahomes has plenty of weapons, as SEVEN players have at least eight receptions and FIVE have caught TD passes. However, the KC defense is still vulnerable, allowing 408.5 YPG (30th). Yes, the Chiefs have scored 25 or more points in an NFL-record 25 consecutive games but their D has allowed 58 points over the last two games. Brissett is much better than many think (he's the only QB with at least two passing TDs in each of his team’s first four contests this season). With Indy's improved running game (see above), expect Mack and Co. to move the ball easily on a KC defense than not only ranks 31st in allowing 149.8 YPG on the ground but ranks LAST in allowing a whopping 6.0 YPC! Indy's two losses have come by a total of 13 points, with one of the defeats occurring in overtime.Take the big points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-19 | Bills v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 14-7 | Loss | -115 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
My AFC 10* Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Buffalo Bills opened the season 3-0, before suffering their first loss last Sunday at home, 16-10 to the Pats. Buffalo QB Josh Allen threw three interceptions against New England last week, as the Bills offense did very little. However, the Buffalo D held the defending-champion Patriots to just 224 yards. Brday had just 150 yards passing, was held without a TD pass despite 39 attempts and was interecpeted once (QB rating of 45.9!). Buffalo held the Pats to juts 74 yards rushing (3.2 YPC) and will visit Nashville allowing 15.8 PPG (5th) on 280.8 YPG (2nd). Allen got knocked out of the game on a helmet-to-helmet hit when he failed to slide on a running play and has spent the week in concussion protocol.He had completed 64.1 percent of his passes during the 3-0 start before going 13-of-28 against the Pats. The ageless Frank Gore (he needs 249 rushing yards to pass Barry Sanders and move into third place on the all-time list) ran for 109 yards and the Bills are averaging 147.2 YPG on the ground (4th). The Titans are coming off three straight nine-win seasons and shocked the Browns (SI's cover team) 43-13 at Cleveland in Week 1. However, the Titans have been searching for consistency for far too long. They lost 19-17 at home to Indy in Week 2 and in Week 3 lost 20-7 at Jacksonville, before winning 24-10 last Sunday in Atlanta. QB Marcus Mariota has been no paragon of consistency but he's completing 62.2% with seven TDs and not a single interception in 119 attempts (106.2 QB rating). Only TWO teams surrendered fewer points per game than the Titans last season (18.9) and they ranked eighth in yards allowed. The Tennessee D defense returned nine of 11 starters from 2018 and is currently allowing 15.5 PPG (4th) on 337.0 YPG (12th). The Bills are waiting to see if Josh Allen will be cleared from the concussion protocol and he's listed as questionable. Backup Matt Barkley will start if Allen can't go and would make his first start since last season. He threw for 127 yards coming off the bench in last week's 16-10 loss. Whether it's Allen or Barkley, I'm backing the Titans. I'm still not sold on the Bills and believe that he Titans are a no-frills solid team without any major weaknesses, especially with Marcus Mariota stepping up his play (Mariota is the only quarterback to start every game this season without giving the ball away). The Titans didn’t permit a sack against the Falcons last Sunday (after allowing a league-high 17 sacks through the first three weeks). Now the Titans get back All-Pro offensive left tackle Taylor Lewan, who was suspended the first four games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug. The Titans are sure to recall losing on a last-second 46-yard FG at Buffalo a year ago in Week 5, a defeat that loomed large, as the Titans lost a playoff berth in their regular-season finale. All teams in the AFC South are 2-2 and the Titans believe that with three of their next four games at home, it's a great opportunity to put together a winning streak. That streak starts right here, with Tennessee's first back-to-back wins of 2019. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-19 | Falcons v. Texans -4 | Top | 32-53 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has topped 300 passing yards in all four games in 2019 but the Falcons are just 1-3, after losing 24-10 at home last Sunday to the Tennessee Titans. Ryan threw for a season-high 397 yards in in Week 4 but did not throw a TD pass. All season, Atlanta's has lacked any offensive balance, as the running game is averaging just 70.2 YPG on 4.0 YPC, to rank 37th in the league. The defense ranks 8th in yards allowed (32.8 per) but 22nd in points (24.8 PPG). At the moment, Atlanta looks like the worst team in the NFC South and head coach Dan Quinn's seat warms up a little bit more with each loss. The Texans are one of FOUR teams in the AFC South to enter Week at 2-2. Houston is coming off a lackluster 16-10 home loss to the Carolina Panthers and needs QB Deshaun Watson to "step it up." He passed for only 160 yards vs the Panthers. Watson (65.1%, 938 yards, 6 TDs, 1 INT and a QB rating of 99.9) is capable of so much more, especially with a WR like Hopkins (24 catches) and a running game that's been better than average (120.2 YPG on 5.1 YPC), even after losing Lamar Smith. The defense is allowing 19.5 PPG (10th) and the Texans have forced a turnover in 17 straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL. and one that ranks second in franchise history. Houston is tied for second in league with eight forced fumbles and five fumble recoveries. Houston really needs this win at home, as FOUR of the team's next five games will be on the road. The good news is that the Falcons set up as the perfect foil. The Falcons are beginning a stretch in which four of their next six games are on the road plus this marks their THIRD straight contest against an AFC South team. The Falcons have lost the first two (at Indy in Week 4 and home to Tennessee in Week 4), falling to 1-12 SU their last 13 vs AFC South opponents. The ATS "clincher" is Atlanta going 4-14 ATS on the road since the start of the 29017 season, a 78% "go-against." Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-19 | Cardinals v. Bengals -3 | 26-23 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 5 Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. The Arizona Cardinals made a huge 4th-quarter comeback in Week 1 at home against the Lions (trailed 24-6) to earn a 27-27 tie. However, the Cards have lost THREE in a row since and at 0-3-1, face another winless team in the 0-4 Bengals on Sunday in Cincinnati. The Bengals also played their best game of the season in Week 1, losing just 21-20 at Seattle despite out-gaining the Seahawks 429-to-232. The Cards come into this contest off a 27-10 home loss to Seattle in Week 4, while the Bengals took a 3-0 lead at Pittsburgh this past Monday night, only to scoreless in the game's final 51 minutes in a 27-3 defeat. Something's gotta give here right? Last year's Heisman winner Kyler Murray has just four TDs (also four INTs) on the season, while posting a poor 78.8 QB rating. This despite a pair of outstanding WRs. Larry Fitzgerald had five receptions against Seattle to increase his career total to 1,326 and move past Hall-of-Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez for second place on the all-time list. The 36-year-old has made five catches in each of his last three games but could be targeted even more this week,as Christian Kirk (team-high 24 catches) is sidelined with an ankle injury. RB David Johnson is no longer a "fantasy favorite," as he has just 173 rushing yards, although he has added 21 catches with two TDs. The running game ranks 23rd overall, averaging only 92.0 YPG. Arizona's D ranks 29th in allowing 28.8 PPG on 417.0 YPG (31st). Dalton was sacked a career-high EIGHT times during a 27-3 loss in Pittsburgh on Monday night. His OL is troublesome and Cincy's running game has been almost non-existent (49.5 YPG ranks last in the NFL). A.J. Green will miss his fifth game with an ankle injury suffered during training camp and John Ross (16 catches / 20.5 YPC / 3 TDs) is out due to a shoulder injury. The defense is allowing 27.5 PPG (28th) on 386.2 YPG (23rd) The Cardinals and Bengals can sure commiserate and both HAVE to realize that each have their best chance yet to get that elusive first win for either of the two first-year head coaches, Kliff Kingsbury (Arizona) or Zac Taylor (Cincinnati). Why bother with either side? The Cardinals haven't won in Cincinnati in 12 years (maybe NOT a big deal) but noting that Arizona has won just ONCE in its last 10 games played in the Eastern Time Zone, is. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-19 | Bears v. Raiders OVER 40 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Week (5) is on Chi/Oak Over at 1:00 ET. Khalil Mack will have a few incentives when he takes the field for The Chicago Bears hosted their bitter rival (the Green Bay Packers) to open NFL 2019 on a Thursday night (Sep 5) and lost 10-3. Chicago then won its Week 2 game in Denver, 16-14 by making a 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. Heading into the team's MNF Week 3 game at Washington, QB Mitchell Trubisky, the team's "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft," had led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions. The Bears beat the sad-sack Redskins 31-15 in that MNF game and then their defense dominated in a 16-6 home win in Week 4 over the Vikings. Now it's off to London for 3-1 Chicago for a meeting with the 2-2 Oakland Raiders.Oakland is hoping to build off a 31-24 triumph at Indianapolis last Sunday. The Raiders ran 188 yards on the ground in the win, with rookie Josh Jacobs gaining 79 on 17 carries, as they avoided a third straight loss while playing the second of five consecutive contests away from Oakland. The Raiders will be playing in London for the second straight season and internationally for the FIFTH time in six years. Trubisky suffered a left shoulder injury during Chicago's first possession last week and is expected to miss this game. It's hard to say he'll be missed all that much. Chase Daniel will be under center after completing 22-of-30 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown vs the Vikings in relief. Daniel is a 10-year vet and will make his third start in two seasons with Chicago. He went a combined 53 of 76 (69.7%) for 515 yards with three TDs and two INTs in two starts last season (a win at Detroit and loss at the NY Giants). The Bears bring one of the NFL's best defenses to London, allowing 11.2 PPG (2nd) on 290.8 YPG (5th). Oakland's Derek Carr is completing 72.1% of his passes and has been greatly helped by Jacobs, a rookie RB from Alabama. Jacobs has 307 rushing yards this season (5.0 YPC), eclipsing the team record for most by a player in his first four career games. TE Darren Waller grabbed a share of an NFL record last week a swell, increasing his reception total to 33, tying Antonio Gates (2007) for most by a tight end in his team's first four contests of a season. Oakland's defense is another story, as the Raiders rank 25th in allowing 25.5 PPG on 390.2 YPG (alos 25th). Oakland's 31-24 win at Indy last week makes them just 4-14 SU and 5-12-1 ATS on the road since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. The 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Again, this is a neutral site game but it's also a 10:00 a.m. Pacific time start, games in which the Raiders have struggled. I expect the Bears to have little trouble scoring here plus I also think the Raiders' offense is jelling. With this tantalizingly low over/under number, the play is O-V-E-R! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-05-19 | Liberty v. New Mexico State +5 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* Under the Radar Rout is on New Mexico St at 8:00 ET. Liberty announced it would start a transition to the FBS in July of 2017. The Flames became a provisional FBS member in 2018 (playing as an Independent) and becomes a full FBS member, including bowl eligibility, in 2019. The Flames went 6-6 in 2018 and after opening 2019 with back-to-back losses, has won THREE in a row. New Mexico St's first season was 1893 and has long been playing as a Division 1 school (now FBS). Current head coach Doug Martin is in his seventh season at Las Cruses and in 2017, led the Aggies to a 7-6 season which included bowl win over UIah St. That marked just NMSU's second winning season since 2000 (2002 team went 7-5). However, the Aggies were just 3-9 last season and have opened this season 0-5. Liberty made a controversial hire before this season naming Hugh Freeze as its head coach. Freeze was ousted at Ole Miss in 2016 and in February 2019, the NCAA punished the Ole Miss football team for the recruiting and academic violations committed under Freeze and a previous head coach. The punishments included a two-year postseason ban, three years of probation, and a four-year ban on some scholarships. As well, 33 games were vacated, or stripped from the record. Freeze's record at Ole Miss, which was 39–25 during his five seasons, now stands officially at 12–25. Libery comes in on a three-game winning streak but winning on the road is a challenge, even vs a poor team like New Mexico St. The Flames went 1-5 SU on the road in 2018, allowing 48.3 PPG. In Liberty's lone road game here in 2019, the Flames lost 35-14 at UL-Lafayette. New Mexico St owns the nation's worst defense, allowing 47.2 PPG (ranking 130th among 130 FBS schools) on 520.4 YPG (128th). However, let me note that just last Saturday, UMass won 37-29 at home against sad-sack Akron, having entered that contest allowing 51.8 PPG on 556.2 YPG (both left them 130th in the nation). The Aggies won't go 0-12 this season and it's noteworthy to mention that just like in 2018, these two schools are playing a home-and-home series in 2019. New Mexico St beat Liberty 49-41 here in Las Cruses last season and then lost a competitive game in Lynchburg 28-21 in the season-finale for both schools. The first meeting in 2018 was on the first Saturday of October (just like this season) and the teams will again meet in Lynchburg Nov 30, capping their respective seasons. In front of a friendly home crowd, expect the Aggies to claim their first (only?) win of 2019 against the Flames. Don't see Liberty winning FOUR is row, especially on the road with its dreadful road record since joining FBS (see above for a reminder). Good luck..Larry | |||||||
10-05-19 | Michigan State +21 v. Ohio State | Top | 10-34 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 10 m | Show |
My NCAAF 9* Underdog of the Month is on Michigan St at 7:30 ET. No. 4 Ohio State (5-0 / 2-0 Big Ten) won its 10th consecutive game at Nebraska last week, opening a 38-0 lead in the first half on the way to a 48-7 victory. That marked the team's FOURTH consecutive win of least 40 points or more, believed to be tied for the longest such streak by a Big Ten team since World War I. QB Justin Fields (16-0 ratio plus 7 rush TDs) and RB Dobbins (654 YR / 7.1 YPFC / 5 TDs) lead an offense averaging 52.4 PPG (3rd) on 536.2 YPG (8th). As for the defense, the Buckeyes are allowing just 8.6 PPG (2nd) on 224.2 YPG (2nd). The Michigan St Spartans (4-1 / 2-0 Big Ten) invade Columbus at No. 25 in the latest AP poll for the second straight week, after a 40-31 home win over Indiana. QB Brian Lewerke (1,325 yards with a 10-1 ratio) leads the Big Ten in passing yards. The Spartans' lone loss came 10-7 at home to ASU but MSU is still averaging 31.4 PPG. The defensive numbers would look great, 15.0 PPG (14th) on 254.4 YPG (7th), if NOT compared against Ohio State's Ohio State has beaten Michigan St the last three times the teams have met but the Spartans D will be the best one QB Fields has seen (remember, this is just his sixth start). Many (most?) have already punched Ohio St.’s ticket to the CFP but let's note that Ohio State has lost only FIVE Big Ten games since 2012 and TWO of those have come against Michigan State, in the 2013 Big Ten championship game and at Columbus in 2015. The Spartans can get to the QB (16-4 sack edge in 2019),and weren’t sacked in last years meeting (26-6 Ohio St win at East Lansing). I'll close by pointing out that the Spartans held the Buckeyes to just 2.7 YPC in that loss, as well to a season-low 237 total yards. Take the HUGE points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-05-19 | Western Michigan v. Toledo -1 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 31 m | Show |
My 9* "Best Bet" MAC ATTACK is on Toledo at 3:30 ET. Western Michigan visits the Glass Bowl in Toledo, Ohio on Saturday, where the Rockets will host the Broncos in MAC play. Western Michigan improved to 3-2 on the season (1-0 in the MAC) with a 31-15 victory over Central Michigan last Saturday at home. This marks the Broncos' conference road opener, while for 3-1 Toledo, it's the team's conference opener. Both schools finished with identical 7-6 records in 2018 (both were also 5-3 in MAC play) but Toledo has dominated the series recently, winning SEVEN of the last nine meetings. PJ Fleck made a 'pit stop' in Kalamazoo from 2013-16 and his final team 'rowed the boat' to a perfect 13-0 record, before falling 24-16 to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl. Fleck used that season to land the job at Minnesota and Tim Lester has gone 13-12 in his first two years at the school (is currently 16-14). QB Jon Wassink (63.1% / 1,466 yards / 10-4 ratio) leads an offense averaging 37.2 PPG (27th) but WMU has NOT been competitive in its two road games in 2019, losing 51-17 at Mich St and 52-33 at Syracuse. OK, Toledo is not exactly Mich St (may not even be Syracuse) but the Rockets own a very balanced offense (207.8 YPG passing and 262.2 YPG rushing) that has them 28th in total offense (470.0 YPG) and 41st in scoring (34.5 PPG) That running game ranks 10th in the nation and while the defense is giving up too many yards, the Rockets are holding opponents to a decent 23.5 PPG (51st). Toledo has opened 2-0 at home and that's hardly news. The Rockets entered the 2019 season having posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips), while going 43-12 SU at home (now 45-12 with this year's two home victories). As noted above, Toledo has won SEVEN of the last nine meetings with Western Michigan, with both losses coming when Fleck was rowing the boat for WMU (in 2015 and 2016). Fleck's now a Golden Gopher and these last two seasons, Toledo has won 37-10 and 51-24 (at WMU!). No reason at all for the Rockets to NOT be a bigger favorite here. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-05-19 | Baylor v. Kansas State -1 | Top | 31-12 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 5 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Game of the Week is on Kansas St at 3:30 ET. Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where they won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Things are looking up for Baylor in 2019, as the Bears have opened 4-0. Baylor squandered a 20-0 lead Saturday in its Big 12 opener against Iowa State but redshirt-freshman John Mayers made a 38-yard field goal with 21 seconds remaining to keep the Bears perfect with a 23-21 win. Meanwhile, Kansas State, wasn’t so fortunate, losing 26-13 at Oklahoma State last Saturday in its Big 12 opener after a 3-0 start. “The thing about it is I think you can learn a lot more from a loss than you do with a win,” Wildcats first-year head coach Chris Klieman said Monday on the Big 12 coaches teleconference. “We’re going to learn an awful lot from this.” Baylor QB Charlie Brewer threw for a season-high 307 yards and passed for three TDs in the win over Iowa St. He's completing 66.4% for 972 yards with 10 TDs and not a single INT. He's supported by a solid running game, averaging 216.0 YPG (31st), as the Bears head to Manhattan averaging 40.8 PPG (15th). The defense has done its job as well, allowing 16.2 PPG (20th) on 297.5 YPG (24th). The Wildcats also possess one of the Big 12’s top defenses, ranking 17th in the nation in allowing 16.0 PPG on 323.5 YPG (35th), despite being gashed for 526 total yards by Okla St. I guess the good news would be, KSU held the Cowboys to a season-low 26 points. Baylor's 4-0 start is its best since beginning 2016 with six straight wins and will come to Manhattan as one of 18 undefeated FBS teams. However, Baylor has had problems covering the number in this matchup, going 1-4 ATS in the last five at Kansas St and 3-7 the last 10 meetings, overall. Baylor's first three wins of 2019 have come over FCS SF Austin (1-4), UTSA (1-3) and Rice (0-5) plus the Bears were VERY lucky to escape last Saturday vs Iowa St. I don't expect the Bears to be so lucky here in Manhattan, where the Wildcats have covered SIX of their last seven. Baylor falls from the ranks of the unbeaten in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-05-19 | Ohio v. Buffalo OVER 51 | Top | 21-20 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Ohio/Buffalo Over at 3:30 ET. Many felt as 2019 would be the year that Frank Solich would be able to lead Ohio U to its first MAC title since 1968. The Bobcats opened the season with a 41-20 win over Rhode Island but has since lost THREE in a row. The first two were on the road, 20-10 at Pitt on Sep 7 and 33-31 loss at Marshall on Sep 14. Ohio welcomed ULL to Athens on Sep 2, entering that contest on a 10-game winning streak at Peden Stadium. Ohio had averaged a WHOPPING 47.0 PPG during its home winning streak but got CRUSHED 45-25 by the Ragin' Cajuns (note: ULL is 4-1 & 5-0 ATS in 2019). The Bobcats had the final weekend of September off and now begin their MAC schedule with EIGHT straight games, including FOUR weekday games in November. Ohio begins its MAC 'journey' in Buffalo against the Bulls. Buffalo rebounded from four straight non-winning seasons (2014-17) to go 10-4 in 2018, a season which ended with a heart-breaking 30-29 loss in the MAC championship game vs Northern Illinois and then a 42-32 loss to Troy in the Dollar General Bowl. The Bulls opened 2-2 in non-league play but as a small road favorite in their MAC opener last Saturday, lost 34-20 to Miami, Ohio.Buffalo gained 309 yards rushing (two players topped 100 yards) but had just 89 yards through the air, as QB Matt Myers completed just 4 of 16 passes while throwing two interceptions and fumbling twice. As bad a start as Ohio has had, the Bobcats have yet to play a MAC game, so this game can be seen a a "new beginning." The problem is, this is arguably Solich's worst defensive team. The Bobcats are allowing 29.5 PPG (88th) on 464.0 YPG (116th). The Buffalo D also leaves much to be desired, as after beating FCS Robert Morris 38-10, the Bulls have allowed 34.0 PPG over the last four games. The home team has won NINE straight games in this series and the Bulls (winners of the MAC East in 2018) will no doubt remember losing 52-17 in Athens last November (note: Bulls entered that game 9-1). I'm NOT saying the Bobcats will not be competitive but they will need to score often to do so. The Play is OVER. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-05-19 | TCU v. Iowa State -3 | Top | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 55 h 58 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Iowa State at 12:00 ET. TCU still hasn't decided on a starting QB, as the Horned Frogs used three different QBs while rolling up 625 yards in last week's 51-14 win over Kansas. True freshman starter Max Duggan, fifth-year senior Alex Delton (who started the first two games of the season) and junior Mike Collins all seeing action in the second half. Head coach Gary Patterson wouldn't tip his hand as to who his starter would be against the Cyclones but whoever gets the start, will have the benefit of a rushing attack averaging 275.2 YPG (8th). The 3-1 Horned Frogs visit Ames on Saturday looking to open 2-0 in the Big 12. Iowa St is 2-2 but 0-1 in the Big 12 and unlike TCU, is having all sorts of trouble running the ball, averaging 152.2 YPG (76th) on the season, after gaining only 63 yards (2.3 YPC) on the ground in last Saturday's 23-21 loss at Baylor. Duggan is just the second true freshman to start at QB during the 19-season head coaching tenure of Gary Patterson and completed 8-of-11 passes for 100 yards and two TDs against the Jayhawks ,while Delton, a Kansas State transfer, was 10-of-15 for 186 yards and also rushed for 21 yards. Both are expected to see significant snaps. Senior RB Darius Anderson is having a breakout year, rushing for 483 yards (8.2 YPC) with five TDs. His best previous season at TCU was in 2017, when he gained 768 yards for the entire year. Patterson's teams typically play good D and this year's squad is holding opponents to 18.8 PPG (30th) on 246.0 YPG (4th). Iowa St may have issues running the ball (the Cyclones have rotated five different RBs) but QB Brock Purdy ranks fourth nationally in total offense (358.0 YPG) and seventh in the nation in passing yards (332.8 YPG), coming in with back-to-back 300-yard passing games. Iowa St was held to just 17 points by Iowa but is still averaging 34.8 PPG (38th) and the defense is allowing a modest 21.8 PPG (45th). Iowa St's two losses are to Iowa and Baylor (both are 4-0) and have come by a total of just THREE points. The Cyclones fell behind 20-0 at Baylor last Saturday but rallied back with 21 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a one-point lead with 3:45 remaining However, ISU lost on a 38-yard field goal with just 21 seconds left. The Iowa loss was not any easier to take, as the Cyclones led 14-6 late in the third quarter, before closing 18-17 on a FG with just under five minutes left. Purdy took over as ISU's starting QB on Oct 13 last year and led the Cyclones to a 7-1 finish, before losing 28-26 to Washington St in the Alamo Bowl. He's 2-2 this year, with those two "close losses." The Cyclones are 8-2 SU in their last 10 home games, losing in 2018 to then-No. 5 Oklahoma (ATS win) and to current No. 14 Iowa in 2019 (another ATS win). The Cyclones have owned the month of October vs Big 12 opponents (home or away) since 2017, going a PERFECT 7-0 SU & ATS. Make that 8-0! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-04-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers -149 | 4-2 | Loss | -149 | 8 h 20 m | Show | |
My 7* Late-Breaker is on the LA Dodgers at 9:37 ET. The Dodgers took care of the Nats 6-0 in Game 1 of their NLDS, as Walker Buehler pitched six shutout innings and Max Muncy drove in three runs. Gavin Lux (first career playoff at-bat) and Joc Pederson both added eighth-inning HRs. We now move to Game 2 which features the marquee pitching matchup of Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32 ERA) going up against Clayton Kershaw (16-5, 3.03 ERA). Strasburg won a career-high 18 games in 2019 but is in a tough spot here, as the Nats needed him their wild card game vs the Brewers on Tuesday. Strasburg pitched three scoreless innings of relief to pick up the win, throwing 34 pitches (26 for strikes) while allowing two hits and striking out four. He now comes back on short rest to face the Dodgers, who are now 60-22 (outscoring opponents 5.45-to-3.30 RPG) at home in 2019, after last night's win. Delving a little deeper, the Dodgers are 44-11 vs righties at home (+$2,200), while averaging 5.8 RPG. Strasburg may own a 2.66 career ERA vs LA in 11 starts but he's just 3-5 and the Nats 3-8. OK, let's state up front that Kershaw owns a 4.32 ERA in 30 playoff appearances. Now to the "good stuff." The Dodgers went 21-7 in Kershaw's 28 starts this season (+$788 ranked 13th-best among all starters) and that includes a 13-3 record in his home starts (note: 15 of those starts came at night, with LA going 13-2). Kershaw's had no problems with the Nats in his career, going 13-3 with a 2.65 ERA in 18 starts (LA is 15-3). With Strasburg having made his first-ever career relief appearance on Tuesday, it's not likely he'll pitch deep into this game. Them it's the worst bullpen in the NL (5.68 ERA). LA goes up 2-0 and the Nats will hope that Scherzer can pitch better than he did vs Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-04-19 | Central Florida -3.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -101 | 33 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Friday Night Lights Play (AAC Game of the Month) is on UCF at 8:00 ET. The 3-1 Cincinnati Bearcats will play their AAC opener Friday night when they welcome 4-1 UCF to Nippert Stadium. UCF is ranked 18th in the latest AP poll and is coming off a 56-21 rout of Connecticut to open its AAC slate. The Knights rebounded from their first loss in 26 regular-season games (35-34 at Pittsburgh on Sep 22), by registering 607 yards of total offense. Cincinnati is coming off it best game of 2019, dominating both sides of the ball in a 52-14 rout at Marshall on Sep 28. The Bearcats out-gained the Thundering Herd 525-256, as they kept Marshall off the scoreboard until the fourth quarter. Freshman QB Dillon Gabriel threw for three TDs against UConn and after five games has completed 61.7% for 1,338 yards with a 14-2 ratio. UCF's running game adds excellent balance to an offense averaging 49.0 PPG (6th) on 568.6 YPG (2nd). Three RBs have more than 250 yards rushing, led by McCrae (323 YR / 6.2 YPC) and Killins (310 YR / 7.4 YPC). When a team's offense is averaging seven TDs per game, a defense allowing 19.4 PPG (33rd) on 324.8 YPG (36th) is more than adequate. Cincy's sophomore QB Desmond Ridder was named AAC Offensive Player of the Week with his four TD passes against Marshall. Ridder has a pair of reliable receivers in WR Alec Pierce (14 receptions, 277 yards, TD) and TE Josiah Deguara (12 catches, 183 yards, 3 TDs),. The running agme is decent (186.5 YPG ranks 52nd) and despite getting shutout 42-0 by Ohio St, Cincy is averaging 27.8 PPG (80th). The Cincy D is pretty good, holding the team's three opponents (not named Ohio St) to just 13.7 PPG Luke Fickell was appointed head coach at Ohio St when Jim Tressel was forced out in 2011 but the next year was introduced as Urban Meyer's co-defensive coordinator. He took the Cincy job in 2017 and went just 4-8. However, he went 11-2 last season, including a 35-31 Military Bowl win over Va Tech. His Bearcats take a NINE-game home winning streak into this contest but is beating a UCF a 'bridge too far?' My bet says Y-E-S! The Knights have scored 30 points or more in 32 straight games and have won 19 straight AAC games, with the average margin of victory checking in at 21.0 PPG (just ONE win has had a margin of less than seven points). These schools have met three times in the Frost/Heupel era (2016-18), with UCF winning 24-3, 51-23 (game was cut short because of thunderstorms) and 38-13. Deja vu! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-04-19 | Capitals v. Islanders -116 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Division Game of the Month (Metropolitan) is on the NY Islanders at 7:05 ET. The New York Islanders finished one point behind the Washington Capitals for first place in the Metropolitan Division last season (104-to-103). Both squad disappointed in the playoffs in 2019, as the Caps lost a first-round series against the Hurricanes in seven games, after taking a 2-0 lead. As for the Isles, they swept the Pens in the opening round but then got swept by Carolina in the second round. However, all-in-all, it was an excellent season for New York and head coach Barry Trotz in his first season with the Isles. Trotz, who guided the Capitals to their first Stanley Cup championship in 2017-18 before a contract dispute led him to move north, won the Jack Adams Award as coach of the year in the 2018-19 season. Washington opened its season Wednesday night in St Louis, against the defending champs. After the Blues raised their championship banner, they took a two-goal lead in the opening eight minutes but relying on its experience, Washington settled down, tied the score in the second period and won 3-2 when Jakub Vrana scored 2:51 into overtime. Goalie Braden Holtby has seen his win total dip in each of the last three seasons, from a career-high 48 in 2015-16 to just 32 last season. He got off to a shaky start against the Blues, who scored on two of their first three shots. However, he settled down as the Caps came back to win. That said, rookie goaltender Ilya Samsonov is expected to make his first NHL start, tonight. New York pretty much stood pat and will basically feature the same roster from last season. The Islanders allowed the fewest goals in the league last season but did sustain a significant loss with the exodus of goaltender Robin Lehner (25-13-5, 2.13 GAA and .930 SP). However, Thomas Greiss (23-14-2) posted a 2.28 goals-against average and .927 save percentage to form an imposing tandem with Lehner. The Isles replaced Lehner with former Colorado netminder Semyon Varlamov. Greiss will be the team's No. 1 goalie and gets the start here in the team's season opener. Mathew Barzal, the top point producer in each of his first two seasons (62 LY and 85 the season before), centers the top line of Jordan Eberle (19 goals) and captain Anders Lee (team-high 28 goalies). Brock Nelson will skate alongside Josh Bailey on the second line, after each eclipsed 50 points last season. Veterans Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk plus youngsters Ryan Pulock and Devon Toews are part of a deep blue line. Tough spot for Washington, which is coming off a nice comeback win Wednesday at St Louis. The Caps play tonight at the NYI and then return home to face Carolina, which eliminated them in last season's opening round. Isles are the play. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-03-19 | Flames +115 v. Avalanche | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cal Flames at 9:00 ET. Bill Peters' first season behind the bench for the Calgary Flames saw the team amass a Western Conference-best 107 points. However, after taking Game 1 of their Opening Round series 4-0 against the No. 8-seeded Colorado Avalanche (just 90 points on the season), Calgary 'flamed out' by dropping FOUR consecutive games. The two teams will play tonight in Denver, as the Flames look to avenge their first-round series loss to the Avalanche. Restricted free-agent Matthew Tkachuk finally signed a three-year, $21 million contract during the last week of training camp, coming off a 34-goal, 77-point season for Calgary. Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan and Elias Lindholm comprise an excellent No. 1 line in Calgary, combining to record 259 points (97 goals, 162 assists). Captain Mark Giordano registered an NHL-best plus-39 rating and claimed the Norris Trophy as the league's top defenseman. While Clagary owns an excellent No. 1 line, Colorado arguably features the best top line in the NHL in center Nathan MacKinnon (41 goals / 99 points) plus wings Gabriel Landeskog (34 goals / 75 points) and Mikko Rantanen (31 goals / 87 points). Nazem Kadri and Andre Burakovsky were acquired from Toronto and Washington, respectively plus fellow forward Joonas Donskoi signed as a free agent to provide an added jolt to Colorado's offense. However, the Avalanche must deal with the subtraction of Tyson Barrie (59 points) after the offensive-minded defenseman was traded to the Maple Leafs. The good news is, Colorado does have rookie defenseman Cale Makar. He won the Hobey Baker Award as a sophomore at the University of Massachusetts and he was on the ice against the Flames just two days after playing the NCAA title game. Makar finished with a goal and five assists in 10 playoff games and now gets to experience the NHL regular season. Calgary was the vastly superior team last year, going 50-25-7 to 38-30-14, before collapsing in the first round. Getting to open the new season playing the Avs, who ended the Flames' season so abruptly, is a great spot. Note that the Flames were 24-15-2 on the road last season, with only Tampa Bay (128 points) owning more road wins (30). Golaie David Rittich posted a sizzling 20-4-4 mark in his first 31 games last season before his declining numbers down the stretch relegated him to a backup role behind Mike Smith. However, Smith is now with the Oilers with Cam Talbot now competing with Rittich. Colorado's No. 1 goalie Semyon Varlamov is now playing for the New York Islanders, meaning Philipp Grubauer, who has spent his NHL career primarily as a backup, is now "the man." I'm backing Calgary in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-03-19 | Rams +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* NFC West Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The LA Rams opened 8-0 last season on their way to a Super Bowl appearance against the NE Pats. The Rams opened 3-0 in 2019 but the team hardly looked as good as it did for most of the 2018 season. The Rams welcomed the Bucs to LA in Week 4 and got blasted, 55-40! Jared Goff set a career high with 517 yards passing but his two TD passes were offset by THREE interceptions and his NFL record-tying 45 completions were a telling sign of LA's one-dimensional offense. Seattle is also off to a 3-1 start in 2019 but its three victories have come against opponents with a combined 1-10-1 record, including a pair of wins by a combined three points! Rams head coach Sean McVay said after Todd Gurley and Malcolm Brown split 10 carries for a combined 30 yards rushing against the Bucs that, "We never really got back into our normal down-and-distance operation, where we could be underneath the center and have some run-pass balance. I think that puts a lot of stress on the quarterback, on the offensive line." WR Cooper Kupp, who went down in Week 10 of 2018 with a knee injury, is back healthy and has 32 catches and an NFC-best 388 yards in four games. Woods has 26 catches and Cooks has 19. The LA defense surely needs a bounce-back effort, after allowing 55 points and yards to the Bucs. Is this the same D which allowed 24.0 PPG on 358.6 YPG in 2018? Russell Wilson did not put up eye-popping stats against Arizona with 240 yards and a score in the 27-10 win, but he registered his fourth consecutive game with at least a 102.6 QB rating. Wilson is completing 72.9% on the season for 1,141 yards with eight TDs and zero INTs (118.7 QB rating). “I think he’s off to his best start ever,” head coach Pete Carroll said. "I don’t care how big the numbers are, I’m not talking about how many yards or whatever, just his play has been really, really sharp." However, Wilson has not had the luxury of the NFL's top rushing offense like he did in 2018. Seattle averaged a league-high 160.0 YPG (4.8 YPC) in 2018 but is averaging a way more modest 115.0 YPG (4.0 YPC) so far in 2019. Seattle was fortunate to eke out a one-point home win over Cincinnati in Week 1 (Bengals are currently 0-4) and then in Week 3, lost 33-27 at home to the Brees-less Saints. Seattle entered that game vs the Saints 15-0 in September home games since Pete Carroll took over in 2010, making the Seahawks the ONLY unbeaten team in September during that time frame (so much for that). The once-feared "Legion of Boom" defense is no more and Seattle's home field isn’t as powerful as it once was either, with the Seahawks going just 16-17-2 ATS since 2015 at Century Link Field. The Rams are are in full "bounce-back mode" after allowing 55 points in a two-TD loss at home to the Bucs and it is impossible to ignore that the Rams are 15-3 SU on the road since McVay has taken over. Rams get the 'W' and the cover. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-03-19 | Cardinals v. Braves -134 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -134 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
My MLB 10* Game of the Week is on the Atl Braves at 5:02 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 9:00 ET Thursday morning. | |||||||
10-02-19 | Capitals +128 v. Blues | Top | 3-2 | Win | 128 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* NHL Game of the Week is on the Was Caps at 8:00 ET. The two most recent Stanley Cup champions will take the ice on Wednesday, as St Louis (2019 champs) will host Washington (2018 champs) at the Enterprise Center, previously known as the Scottrade Center. The Blues will hoist their championship banner before the game but as reigning Conn Smythe and Selke Trophy recipient Ryan O'Reilly notes, "I think (the banner raising is) the last reflection before you start the journey again to the next one. Once it's up, it's back to work to do it again. I'm excited for that. The best part of the journey is playing the game and being together as a group." Speaking of "a group," St Louis returns much of the same roster that led the team to the franchise's first-ever title. The Caps exorcised their playoff demons by winning the 2018 Stanley Cup but last season was eliminated in the first round by Carolina, after taking a 2-0 lead (same old, same old). Washington owns a roster with very few flaws. AlexOvechkin, Nicklas Backstrom and former Blue T.J. Oshie headline a Washington team that kept much of its potent offensive firepower in the fold, save for Brett Connolly (Florida). The most significant offseason change affected the team's blue line, as Brooks Orpik retired and the club acquired Radko Gudas from Philadelphia for fellow defenseman Matt Niskanen. Perennial Norris Trophy contender John Carlson still anchors a solid defense in front of Braden Holtby, who remains a solid netminder. The Blues return the bulk of their championship team, losing only winger Pat Maroon to the Tampa Bay Lightning via free agency and swapping defenseman Joel Edmundson to the Carolina Hurricanes for defenseman Justin Faulk. Faulk is a three-time All-Star and joins captain Alex Pietrangelo, Colton Parayko, Jay Bouwmeester, Vince Dunn and Carl Gunnarsson along the back line in front of Jordan Binnington, who sported a 24-5-1 record with a 1.89 goals-against average and .927 save percentage en route to being named a Calder Trophy finalist. Vladimir Tarasenko eclipsed 30 goals for the fifth straight season with a club-best 33 tallies, while O'Reilly collected team-leading totals in both assists (49) and points (77) in his first season with the Blues. It's only Game 1 of an 82-game season but I 'LOVE' the visiting Caps in this one. We all know just how hard it is to repeat in the modern NHL. There's a reason so few teams can do it (and why it was so rare the Penguins pulled it off recently). The Blues' 26-game playoff run was taxing, especially since they were playing such a heavy brand of hockey. Many players spent the summer not only celebrating but recovering from significant injuries. In the Blues' amazing postseason run last year, they were a dominating 10-3 on the road but just 6-7 at home. Take the price! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-02-19 | Rays v. A's -132 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -132 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Oak A's at 8:09 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays take MLB's second-best road record (48-33) into tonight's wild card game in Oakland against the A's, who own MLB's 4th-best home record (52-29). Tampa Bay entered MLB back in 1998 and opened with 10 straight losing seasons. However, the Rays would make a World Series run in 2008, where they lost 4-1 to the Phillies. That began a stretch of four postseason appearances in the next six years. This wild card game marks the team's first postseason appearance since 2013. The Athletics moved from Kansas City to Oakland in 1968 and developed into a "mini-dynasty" by winning three consecutive World Series titles from 1972-74. A second "mini-dynasty" arose from 1988 to 1990, when the A's played in THREE straight World Series again, but this time lost TWO of the three. Oakland has not been able to keep up with the exploding salary situation since 2000 but this postseason appearance marks the team's 10 playoff appearance in that span. The kicker? The A's have won just ONE series (wild card or ALDS) in their previous NINE postseason appearances. Both teams finished the regular season strong, with Tampa Bay going 20-6 before losing its last two games, while Oakland went 18-6 before also dropping its last insignificant game at Seattle. Charlie Morton (16-6, 3.05 ERA) will get the ball for the Rays, while the A's turn to Sean Manaea (4-0, 1.21 ERA). Morton's last three season have been remarkable. He entered MLB back in 2008 with Atlanta and when the Astros signed him a two-year, $14 million contract after the 2016 season, Morton owned a career record of 46-71 (included him going 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA with Pittsburgh in 2010). What were the Astros thinking? Well, Morton went 14-7 for Houston in 2017, helping them to the franchise's first-ever World Series title. He followed with a 15-3 season in 2018, then the Rays signed Morton to a two-year, $30 million contract before the 2019 season. All Morton has done this year is go 16-6 (22-11 in team starts). Doing the math, after opening his career 46-71 in nine seasons, he's 45-16 these last THREE seasons. Manaea was chosen by Oakland manager Bob Melvin for this wild card start over Mike Fiers, who went 15-4 this season, including a 12-game win streak and a no-hitter. However, Fiers has had a rough September, winning only ONCE in five starts and compiling a 7.84 ERA. Manaea won 12 games for the A's in both 201 and 2018 season but suffered a torn labrum late in 2017. He needed surgery and missed the end of 2018 and almost the entire 2019 season. He was able to return to the mound September of 2019 and has made five starts. In his first start (at the NYY on Sep 1), he allowed just one hit over five scoreless innings, but the A's would go on to lose, 5-4. However, he would then win his last four starts of September and enters this game 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and .160 BAA. So what's the play? Here's something I left out, above. Despite Morton's excellent season numbers, I will NOT ignore that over his last five road starts, he's allowed 22 ERs on 34 hits in just 26.1 innings for a 7.52 ERA. Oakland advances to the ALDS where, unfortunately, the Astros await. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-30-19 | Bengals v. Steelers -3 | Top | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Pit Steelers at 8:15 ET. As NFL Week 4 comes to close, SEVEN teams remain winless. Two of those winless teams, long-time AFC North rivals Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, meet tonight at Heinz Field. Both have opened 0-3, with the Bengals hoping to avoid their first 0-4 start since 2008 and the Steelers looking to avoid losing their first four games for just the SECOND time time since 1968! Neither team has been able to run the ball, with Cincy averaging 41.7 YPG on the ground (32nd) and the Steelers averaging 64.0 YPG (29th). Dalton has played fairly well for Cincy but the team's D is allowing 27.7 PPG (27th) on 406.3 YPG (28th). With Big Ben out, Pittsburgh is averaging only 16.3 PPG (30th) on 269.3 YPG (30th). More troubling is the fact that the once-vaunted Pittsburgh D is allowing 28.3 PPG (28th) on 442.0 YPG (31st). So where does it leaves us for this game? Dalton entered Week 4 ranked second in the league with 979 passing yards but it's hard to win when one's rushing game is averaging less than 50 YPG and is averaging only 2.4 YPC. Mason Rudolph made his first career NFL in Week 3 at San Francisco and overcame some early nerves to throw for 174 yards and a pair of second-half TDs. The Steelers actually had the ball and the lead late in the fourth quarter before James Conner's fumble set up San Francisco for the winning TD with just 1:15 left in the game, denying Rudolph his first win as an NFL starter. . Someone will be 0-4 after this game (barring a tie) and I can't see NOT playing the Steelers in this one. After all, Pittsburgh has won EIGHT straight (including a wild card win at Cincy in 2015) and 11 of its last 12 against Cincinnati. The average margin of victory in Pittsburgh's three home wins over Cincinnati in that stretch is 8.7 PPG. Considering the line, Pittsburgh deserves a top-rating of 10*s. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Cowboys v. Saints +3 | Top | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 122 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* SNF Magic Play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET. The Dallas Cowboys fought all off-season with RB Elliott but he signed late and Dallas entered the season with lofty aspirations. The Cowboys have opened 3-0 SU and ATS, having eclipsed 30 points in each of their three victories. QB Dak Prescott has been outstanding, completing 74.5% for 920 yards with nine TDs and two INTs. His QB rating of 128.0 is second to only Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes. Elliott has 289 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) for a run game that is averaging 179.0 YPG (3rd-best in the NFL). The Cowboys will visit 2-1 New Orleans fro Sunday Night Football, with the Saints coming off an impressive 33-27 victory at Seattle behind backup QB Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater was 19 of 27 for 177 yards with 2 TDs and zero INTs in first 'real' start since 2015 (I'm not counting his Week 17 start in 2018, playing with "the scrubs"). Prescott's been terrific and WR Amari Cooper,has 16 catches and four TD catches. As for Elliott, he's posted back-to-back 100-yard games. However, the schedule-makers have been VERY kind to Dallas these first three weeks. Dallas hosted the defensively-challenged NY Giants (31.3 PPG on 460.3 YPG) in Week 1, won at sad-sack Washington (allowing 31.3 PPG, as well) in Week 2 and then beat pathetic Miami last week (0-3 & 0-3 ATS, scoring an NFL-low 5.3 PPG and allowing an NFL-high 44.3 PPG). With Brees sidelined following thumb surgery, New Orleans put the ball in the hands of its best offensive player and Alvin Kamara responded by rushing for 69 yards and a touchdown and catching nine passes for 92 yards a score. Teddy Bridgewater should be even better with another week of reps and expect more from top-flight WR Michael Thomas (25 receptions), who scored his first TD of the season last week. However, the Saints D has to get better. New Orleans has allowed 27 points for the third straight week and checks in allowing 27.3 PPG (26th) on 436.0 YPG (29th). It's hard to quote historical numbers for New Orleans, without Brees at QB. However, I sure love the small home underdog in this one. The Cowboys haven't been REMOTELY tested as of yet (see above for a reminder) and winning a SNF road game at this venue is a 'bridge too far.' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos OVER 38.5 | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 117 h 13 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Total of the Month is on Jax/Den Over at 4:25 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos have opened 0-3 while averaging 15.3 PPG (30th) plus their defense is a so-so 17th in points allowed (22.3 PPG). Even more troubling, Denver doesn't have a SINGLE sack through three games. Is that even possible with Von Miller & Bradley Chubb? Heading to Denver will be the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville lost 10 of its final 12 games to finish 5-11 in 2018 and QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door." The Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract in the off-season but he was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC in Week 1 and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. However, The Jags were impressive in their 20-7 home win on a Thursday night Week 3 game Minshew threw two 1st-quarter TDs and the Jags never looked back. The D took over from there, as Marcus Mariota was sacked NINE times. Will the Jags' voracious pass rush be too much for Flacco, who doesn't seem to be too much of an upgrade (if at all) from Case Keenun? Is "Minshewmania" for real? After all, it's difficult to ignore this factoid. Minshew has posted a 73.9 completion percentage and 110.6 rating, both of which are the highest marks by a rookie over his first three career games in the Super Bowl era. He can join Mark Rypien as the only players in league history with a rating of at least 95 in each of their first four career contests. It's true that Denver is in danger of approaching its worst stretch (8-23 SU last 31!) since the days of the old AFL in the mid 1960s. However, let's not be too quick to bury the Broncos just yet. Jacksonville was in dire straits in Week 3 (at 0-2) and was able to play VERY well at home. I see that same scenario working for 0-3 Denver at home in Week 4. Playing at "Mile High" has always meant a lot to the Broncos, especially early in the season when opponents aren’t in shape to deal with high altitude. Is it possible to ignore this? Denver entered its Week 2 game vs the Bears on a 13-game home winning streak in September, before losing a controversial 16-14 contest on 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock! It's was Jacksonville's 'day in the sun' in Week 3 (actually, it was a night game but you get the point) and it's Denver's 'day in the sun' (literally, as the forecast is sunny and in the mid 80s) on Sunday. Yes, I like Denver but what I like even more is the Over. I really like what I see with Minshew and as noted, Denver's D seems to still be a "work in progress." Conditions will be near-perfect in Denver and this is one of just TWO totals under 40. Getting back to Denver's great home record in September, let me add that in those 13 straight Sep home wins (before the team's Week 2 loss in 2019), the Broncos had averaged 29.2 PPG. I'm "all in" on the Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Jaguars v. Broncos -3 | 26-24 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the Den Broncos at 4:25 ET. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph in 2017 and 2018 and he was 'shown the door.' Vic Fangio was hired in January and it's his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories, including scoring defense, total yards allowed and fewest penalties. His defenses have ranked in the league’s top-five in yards allowed in eight of the last 12 years, while placing in the NFL’s top-5 in fewest points allowed seven times over that span. However, the Broncos have opened 0-3 while averaging 15.3 PPG (30th) plus their defense is a so-so 17th in points allowed (22.3 PPG). Even more troubling, Denver doesn't have a SINGLE sack through three games. Is that even possible with Von Miller & Bradley Chubb? Heading to Denver will be the 1-2 Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville lost 10 of its final 12 games to finish 5-11 in 2018 and QB Blake Bortles was "shown the door." The Jags signed Nick Foles to a big contract in the off-season but he was hardly used during the preseason (Jags went 0-4) and then in the first quarter of Week 1, Noles suffered a broken clavicle. Rookie Gardner Minshew took over for Foles vs KC in Week 1 and while he completed his first 13 passes and finished 22 of 25 for 275 yards with two TDs, both came after Jacksonville was down 37-13 in the 4th quarter. He performed admirably against the Texans in his first career start with 213 passing yards and a TD, as well as 56 yards rushing, but again, he could get the Jags into the end zone until driving them 68 yards in 14 plays during the game's final four minutes. I admire the Jags "going two and the win," but it failed. However, The Jags were impressive in their 20-7 home win on a Thursday night Week 3 game Minshew threw two 1st-quarter TDs and the Jags never looked back. The D took over from there, as Marcus Mariota was sacked NINE times. Will the Jags' voracious pass rush be too much for Flacco, who doesn't seem to be too much of an upgrade (if at all) from Case Keenun? Is "Minshewmania" for real? After all, it's difficult to ignore this factoid. Minshew has posted a 73.9 completion percentage and 110.6 rating, both of which are the highest marks by a rookie over his first three career games in the Super Bowl era. He can join Mark Rypien as the only players in league history with a rating of at least 95 in each of their first four career contests. It's true that Denver is in danger of approaching its worst stretch (8-23 SU last 31!) since the days of the old AFL in the mid 1960s. However, let's not be too quick to bury the Broncos just yet. Jacksonville was in dire straits in Week 3 (at 0-2) and was able to play VERY well at home. I see that same scenario working for 0-3 Denver at home in Week 4. Playing at "Mile High" has always meant a lot to the Broncos, especially early in the season when opponents aren’t in shape to deal with high altitude. Is it possible to ignore this? Denver entered its Week 2 game vs the Bears on a 13-game home winning streak in September, before losing a controversial 16-14 contest on 53-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock! It's was Jacksonville's 'day in the sun' in Week 3 (actually, it was a night game but you get the point) and it's Denver's 'day in the sun' (literally, as the forecast is sunny and in the mid 80s) on Sunday. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Braves +103 v. Mets | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Atl Braves at 3:05 ET. The Atlanta Braves wrap up the regular season looking to avoid getting swept by the Mets, as they prepare for an NLDS meeting with the Central Division winners (StL or Mil). New York was 40-50 at the All-Star break but has 45-26 in the second half, including winning 13 of 19 games since Sep 8. However, this contest ends their season. However, the great news is that first baseman Pete Alonso set the big-league single-season rookie record with his 53rd homer in Saturday's 3-0 victory. Alonso’s third-inning solo shot provided the final piece of his likely NL Rookie of the Year campaign and he enters the season finale with 120 RBI, 102 runs scored and a .945 OPS. Taking the mound today will be Mike Soroka (13-4, 2.60 ERA) for Atlanta and Noah Syndergaard (10-8, 4.30 ERA) for the Mets. If Alonso is the ROY, then Soroka is surely the rookie Pitcher of the Year. He has been extra special away from home, going 7-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.92 WHIP, while allowing opponents to bat .195 in 15 road starts. Syndergaard wraps up the season with his career-high 32nd start plus enters Sunday having pitched 190.2 innings (another career high). However, he has limped toward the finish by allowing four ERs in each of his last four starts, posting a 6.97 ERA in that span. Soroka is looking to nail down a start in Game 3 of the NLDS (would be on the road) and he's won both his starts against the Mets this season. In a meaningless game, the "play" is Soroka over Syndergaard. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Reds v. Pirates +110 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Pit Pirates at 3:05 ET. The Cincinnati Reds lost 5-4 in 15 innings in the series opener at Pittsburgh on Friday, extending their skid in Pittsburgh against the Pirates to 11 games. The Reds needed 12 innings on Saturday but won 4-2, ending that 11-game skid in the Steel City (dated back to June 2018). The Reds ended a five-game overall losing streak on Saturday as well, while the Pirates saw a four-game winning streak snapped. Both teams finish disappointing seasons on Sunday as 74-87 Cincinnati will end the year with its SIXTH straight losing season and 69-92 Pittsburgh has dropped off the earth after going 82-79 in 2018. Tyler Mahle (2-12, 5.34 ERA) gets the nod for the Reds and Trevor Williams (7-8, 5.52 ERA) for the Pirates. It's Mahle's 25th birthday and he hopes to record his first win since May 31. However, just why should we expect that.? He lasted only 2.1 innings vs Milwaukee on Wednesday, getting roughed up for eight runs and seven hits (including three HRs), to run his winless drought to 13 appearances. He has made 14 road starts in 2019, going 0-8 with the Reds losing 12 of the 14! OK, Williams is not much better. He gave up three runs or fewer in 12 of his final 13 outings in 2018 and opened 2019 with a 2.59 ERA in his first five starts (Pittsburgh won FOUR of the five). However, he enters Sunday with a 5.52 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and .286 BAA. That said, the Pirates are 14-11 in his starts in 2019 (the Reds are 6-18 in Mahle's starts, including 2-12 on the road) plus he is 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA against the Reds this season. What's more, as noted above, the Reds had lost 11 straight at PNC Park before Saturday's win. Pirates start a new winning streak at home vs the Reds right here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Yankees v. Rangers +153 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 153 | 4 h 10 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Tex Rangers at 3:05 ET. The final game in the 26-year history of Globe Life Park will take place Sunday when the host Texas Rangers take on the New York Yankees on the last day of the regular season. The Rangers will leave behind the stadium in which they made eight playoff runs and won seven AL West titles. Texas made back-to-back World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011 but lost both. Texas enters this game 77-84, after beating the Yankees 9-4 on Saturday. As for New York, the Yankees will playing their final tune-up before hosting Minnesota for Game 1 of the ALDS on Friday. The Yankees will use an opener in the finale (Chad Green) before giving some innings to Masahiro Tanaka (11-8, 4.47 ERA), who figures to start one of the first three games of the playoffs. Texas counters with Lance Lynn (15-11, 3.76 ERA). Tanaka has pitched well at Yankee Stadium in 2019 (8-3 with a 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .238 BAA) but he's been awful on the road. In 15 away starts, his ERA balloons to 6.16, his WHIP to 1.39 and his BAA to .282. Lynn won 71 games for the Cards in a five-year span from 2012-17 (he missed the 2016 season) but his 2018 season, split between the Twins and Yanks, was a flop (10-10, 4.77 ERA). Texas was "in the wild card hunt" just after the All Star break but the team finally folded. Lynn had gone eight straight starts without a win before picking one up at Oakland last Sunday, when he held the Athletics to two runs in 5.1 innings with 12 strikeouts against one walk in an 8-3 win. Here's the catch. Yes, Lynn was 0-5 (team was 0-8) in that sttretch but since the start of August (nine starts, including his most recent win), he allowed three ERs in SEVEN of the nine, striking out 66 in 53 innings. The Rangers have been money-makers at home this season (44-36, +$1,4-03) and vs righties in home days games, are 10-3, averaging 7.3 RPG. Green and Tanaka are both righties and I noted Tanaka's road numbers above. NY has NOTHING to play for so back Lynn (this marks a career-high 33rd start) at this GREAT price! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Panthers v. Texans -4.5 | 16-10 | Loss | -109 | 7 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. Cam Newton is sidelined indefinitely by a Lisfranc injury in his foot, so the Carolina Panthers will give QB Kyle Allen his second straight start. The second-year player got the job done last week, going 19-of-26 for 261 yards with four touchdowns and zero interception in a 38-20 win at Arizona, Carolina’s first victory of the season. The Texans are 2-1 and just one defensive stop (and a 58-yard FG) away from being undefeated. However, in all fairness, they’re also just a couple plays away from being winless, as all three of Houston's games have been decided by seven points or less. I'm not sure the Panthers are counting on or waiting for, Cam Newton to snap out of his malaise. The bigger question right now is, can Newton even play anymore given his various injuries? Newton had zero TD throws and just five rushing attempts in two games before missing this past Sunday. As for this game, we'll see if Allen is no more than a backup QB or is he not ready for primetime. We KNOW McCaffrey is ready. He had a breakout season in 2018 (his second), rushing for 1,098 yards (5.0 YPC) with seven TDs, while catching 107 passes for 867 yards with six more TDs. After three games in 2019, he's got 318 yards rushing (5.4 YPC) and three TDs plus 15 catches for 132 yards. Houston’s offense has been inconsistent, scoring 28 points, then 13 and then 27. However, QB Deshaun Watson has been steady, completing 65.6 percent for 778 yards with six TDs and only one interception. Watson has a solid receiving corps led by DeAndre Hopkins (19 catches), but after the RB duo Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson (replacing the injured Lamar Smith) performed well in Weeks 1 & 2, Houston ran for just 39 yards against San Diego. The defense was torched by Drew Brees in a 30-28 Week 1 loss but has played much better the last two weeks, allowing just 32 points. Outstanding pass rushers J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus may give Allen "all he wants, and more!" Is Allen really a better 'fit' for the Panthers? That's hard to say but let's note that the Panthers come into this game just 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS over their last 11 games. The two wins came last week at Arizona (3-13 in 2018 and 0-2-1 to open 2019) and the Saints in Week 17 of 2018, when Brees and the starters sat. Is anyone confident that Allen is up to the challenge of out-dueling Watson and a team that is 13-6 with a healthy Watson starting at QB since the beginning of last year! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-19 | Raiders v. Colts -6 | Top | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 36 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 10:00 ET. The Colts opened the 2019 season with back-to-back road games, losing 30-24 (in OT) at LA vs the Chargers in Week 1, before winning 19-17 at Tennessee in Week 2 as a three-point underdog. Indy returned to Lucas Oil Stadium in Week and held on to beat the Falcons, 27-24. The Colts are 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS. The sudden and unexpected retirement of Andrew Luck has clearly NOT negatively affected the Colts. Jacoby Brissett is no Andrew Luck but he was superb against the Falcons, completing his first 16 attempts while finishing 28-of-37 for 310 yards and two TDs. The 1-2 Oakland Raiders visit Indy on a two-game losing streak. The Raiders opened the season with a 24-16 home win over the Broncos(who are 0-3) but have followed with a 28-10 home loss to the Chiefs (Raiders led 10-0) and a 34-14 road loss at Minnesota. Jon Gruden's "second go-round" as Oakland's head coach has not gone smoothly. The Raiders were 4-12 in 2018 and now 1-2 to open 2019. The offense is averaging only 16.0 PPG (29th) on 322.0 YPG (27th), while the defense allows 26.0 PPG (23rd) on 405.0 YPG (26th). Two players have made their marks early on for Oakland, TE Darren Waller and rookie RB (Ala) Josh Jacobs. Waller had career bests of 13 receptions and 134 yards last week and leads all players at his position and ranking second overall in the NFL with 26 receptions. Josh Jacobs tops all rookies with 228 rushing yards. However, Oakland's early season schedule is a 'killer' (more in just a bit). Brissett is completing 71.7% of his passes with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 112.0), while RB N\Marlon Mack (299 yards / 4.9 YPC) leads a running game that averages a healthy 149.7 YPG (6th). Indy's defense heads into Sunday's game against Oakland ranked in the bottom half of the league in yards rushing, yards passing and total yards allowed plus only six teams have fewer takeaways than the Colts' three. However, the Colts have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in any of the team's last 21 contests. The Raiders will go straight from Indianapolis to London, where they will spend the week practicing before a "home" game against Chicago. Oakland is in the midst of a stretch that features 48 days between games at the Oakland Coliseum, with four road games, one off week, and the trip to London. This week marks the second of FIVE straight games that start at 10 a.m. PT and Oakland has lost SEVEN straight in the early Sunday time slot. Want more? Oakland is just 3-14 SU and 4-12-1 ATS on the road (a 75% "go-against") since the team made the playoffs in 2016 with a 12-4 record. Those 14 SU losses have come by an average margin of defeat of 15.9 PPG. Has Gruden helped things? He's 1-8 SU on the road (in going 1-7 last year, the Raiders scored a league-low 12.7 points per game on the road), as the Raiders have been outscored by 137 points in their last nine away games. Switching back to the Colts, they lost first two home games last season but have reeled off SEVEN straight wins, the second-longest active streak behind New England (15). Last Sunday's 27-24 win also marked the NINTH in a row at home in which the Colts have scored at least 23 points. That's tied for the league's third-longest streak with the LA Rams and behind New England (13) and Kansas City (12). There's little doubt among the players that the noise and atmosphere of Lucas Oil Stadium have helped. I agree. Colts wish the Raiders well in their travels to London, sending them away with another double-digit loss. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-28-19 | Hawaii v. Nevada -1.5 | Top | 54-3 | Loss | -120 | 79 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Nevada at 10:30 ET. A pair of 3-1 schools square off Saturday night, when the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors visit Mackay Stadium to take on the Nevada Wolf Pack. Hawaii opened the season with a 45-38 home upset of Arizona (Hawaii was a 10 1/2-point dog), then added home wins over Oregon St and Central Arkansas, sandwiched around a 52-20 loss at Washington. QB Cole McDonald leads a passing game which ranks 6th in the nation (352.8 YPG) and while he has thrown 13 TDs, he's also been picked off NINE times. He gets little help from a running game that averages only 121.0 YPPG, which ranks 104th in the nation. Hawaii's D has allowed an average of more than 30 PPG in FIVE of the last six seasons and enters this contest allowing 33.5 PPG. That ranks 106th in the nation, as does the 439.5 YPG the defense allows, overall. Nevada began 2019 with a home upset as well, beating Purdue 34-31 as an 11-point home dog. Nevada's lone loss so far came in its second game, 77-6 at Oregon, which was coming a late-loss in its season-opener against Auburn (a loss was understandable but the 71-point margin was admittedly, a bit much). The Wolf Pack come into this contest off back-to-back wins, including a 37-21 road win at UTEP. Nevada has a more balanced offense than Hawaii but is averaging a modest 24.0 PPG (100th). The defensive numbers are skewered due to the Oregon game but I will note that Nevada is allowing 50 YPG less than Hawaii (389.5 per game) on the season. This marks the MWC opener for both teams and history does play a HUGE role in my taking Nevada, especially at this short price. The "June Jones era" is a thing of past. He took Hawaii to SIX bowls in his nine seasons (1999-2007), including a Sugar Bowl (BCS Bowl) at the end of the 2006 season, when Hawaii went 12-0 in the regular season (got crushed by Georgia, 41-10). Hawaii's had just TWO winning seasons in the 11 years since Jones left and the Rainbows Warriors have been regular underachievers on the road. Including this season's blowout loss at Washington, Hawaii enters this contest 18-49 SU on the road in the 11-plus seasons since Jones left. In contrast, Nevada has owned a solid home advantage here in Mackay Stadium, going 60-27 SU since 2005. Nevada has won EIGHT of the last 10 meetings with Hawaii, including all FIVE at home with an average margin of victory of 14.0 PPG. At this price, I have to LOVE Nevada! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-28-19 | UCLA v. Arizona -6 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 34 m | Show | |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Arizona at 10:30 ET. Anyone reading this will surely have heard that UCLA scored 50 points in the second half at then-No. 19 Washington State while rallying from a 49-17 deficit for earn its first victory of the season, 67-63. Sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson had a school-record 564 yards of total offense, including 507 yards passing (5 TDs) and 57 rushing yards (2 TDs). 1-3 UCLA is back on the road again this Saturday night, when it travels to Tucson to take on the 2-1 Arizona Wildcats.Arizona, which lost to UCLA 31-30 last season at the Rose Bowl minus starting QB Khalil Tate, has bounced back from a season-opening 45-38 loss at Hawaii with double-digit wins over both Northern Arizona (65-41) and Texas Tech (28-14). UCLA came to Pullman last week 0-3 and was well on its way to an 0-4 start (Bruins opened 0-5 in 2018) before its incredible comeback. DTR (as UCLA's QB is known) had thrown for just 556 yards with four TDs and four INTs in the Bruins 0-3 start but picked apart a three-man Washington State pass rush in the second half when he threw for 322 yards, including a 15-yard touchdown pass with 1:07 to play for the game-winning TD. UCLA's win was incredible but the Bruins did allow Washington St to score 63 points on a WHOPPING 720 yards, with QB Gordon accounting for 570 passing yards and nine TD passes. The Bruins' 'survived' by forcing SIX turnovers with linebacker Josh Woods leading the way an interception and two fumble recoveries, including one with 59 seconds left to seal the win. Arizona opened the season in 'paradise' (otherwise known as Hawaii) but despite gaining 539 yards and forcing SIX Hawaii turners, got upset 45-38 (Wildcats were favored by 10.5 points). However, Arizona 'hung' 65 points against Northern Arizona and then played an excellent all-around game in beating Texas Tech 28-14 as a two-point home dog. QB Tate is healthy and primed for a HUGE senior season. He's passed for 684 yards in three games (6 TDs) and run for 238 yards (7.4 YPC) with two TDs. Tate surpassed the 5,000-yard mark in career passing (5,048) and the 2,000-yard career rushing mark (2,110) in the win over Texas Tech, joining Oregon's Marcus Mariota as the only QBs in conference history to accomplish that feat. Tate had a school-record 84-yard touchdown run against the Red Raiders and also engineered a 99-yard, 13-play drive that chewed up over seven minutes for the game-clinching TD. This sets up as a classic "let down" spot for the Bruins, plus Arizona has the advantage of not only coming in off a bye week but the Wildcats are playing with revenge from last year's one-point loss (again, Tate missed that contest). let's not forget that UCLA entered the 2019 season just 2-15 SU in road games the previous three seasons and began 20 19 with a 24-14 loss at Cincinnati. So, heading into last Saturday's game at Washington St, the Bruins were 2-17 SU in games away from the Rose Bowl (UCLA's home field), including a 35-17 Cactus Bowl loss to Kansas St in 2017. Down 49-17 in the third quarter, UCLA rallied to win. Hard to see UCLA not coming into this game 'flat.' Arizona's running game ranks 5th in the nation at 307.7 YPG (6,6 YPC), while UCLA's ranks 124th at 96.0 YPG (2.7 YPC). I want Tate over DTR plus UCLA's defense, which allows 530.2 YPG (125th) and 39.5 PPG (122nd) will NOT get six TOs in this one to save them. UCLA win streak ends at ONE in a row. Wildcats roll. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-28-19 | East Carolina v. Old Dominion -2.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Old Dominion at 6:00 ET. The 2-2 East Carolina Pirates and the 1-2 Old Dominion Monarchs meet Saturday in Norfolk, Va for a non-conference game for both teams. East Carolina entered this season off three consecutive 3-9 years and the Pirates opened the season with a 34-6 loss at NC State, getting outgained 505-to-269 in yards. A 49-9 home win over Gardner Webb hardly proved much much and ECU then lost at Navy on Sep 14, 42-10 (got outgained 468-to-222 yards). ECU evened its record at 2-2 last Saturday with a 19-7 home win over William and Mary. ODU looks to even its record this Saturday, after opening the season with an unimpressive 24-21 win over Norfolk St but then dropping two in a row. However, the Monarchs have "shown well" in their two losses. ODU 'hung' with Va Tech at Blacksburg, losing 31-17 as a 30-point underdog. Last Saturday at UVa, ODU jumped out to a 17-0 lead over the Cavs (UVa came into the game ranked 21st in the AP poll), before losing just 28-17 (as a 27-point underdog). East Carolina does come from the tougher conference (AAC vs C-USA) but the Pirates two wins this season have come at home against FCS teams, while their two road games against FBS teams have seen them get outscored 76-16 and outgained, 973-to-491. OK, Old Dominion is not in the class of NC State (or even Navy) but I noted above just how well the Monarchs played at Va Tech and UVa. This team deserves get a VERY beatable opponent here at home, after those two excellent efforts. ECU sure "fits the ball," as the Pirates are 1-17 SU since 2016 on the road, going 3-15 ATS (which is an 83% "go-against). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-28-19 | Indiana v. Michigan State OVER 43 | Top | 31-40 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on Indiana/Mich St Over at 3:30 ET. Michigan State (3-1 / 1-0 Big Ten) rebounded nicely from its 10-7 home loss to Arizona St on Sep 14, with a solid 31-10 win at Northwestern last Saturday in the team's conference opener. MSU dropped out of the AP top-25 after losing to ASU but is back in (barely, at No. 25) after the win over the Wildcats. Speaking of bounce-back performances, Indiana (3-1 / 0-1 Big Ten) rebounded nicely from its first loss of the season last Saturday, limiting Connecticut's offense to just 145 total yards in a 38-3 win. That was quite an improvement from Indiana's 51-10 loss at Ohio St on Sep 14, when the Buckeyes rolled up 520 yards. Peyton Ramsey was Indiana's starting QB in both 2017 and 2018 but he lost his starting job to redshirt freshman Michael Penix Jr. entering 2019. Penix threw for 326 yards but threw two INTs in Indiana's 34-24 season-opening over Ball St. Up next was Eastern Illinois and after throwing for 197 yards (2 TDs / 0 INTs) in the first half, Ramsey came in and went 13 of 14 for 226 yards with two TDs (0 INTs) in a 51-0 rout. However, Penix has been out with an undisclosed injury the last two games. Ramsey had no success vs Ohio St buthe was near perfect against UConn, completing 23-of-27 passes for 247 yards and three TDs (no INTs). Indiana's defense has been just fine against Ball St, Eastern Illinois and UConn but as noted, got overwhelmed by Ohio St. Michigan St does not own an offense in the class of Ohio St but except for its awful showing against ASU, the Spartans have averaged 36.7 PPG in their other three wins. Brian Lewerke is a senior QB and he's completing 62.3% with seven TDs and only one INT, while passing for 1,025 yards. RB Collins has added357 yards (5.9 YPC) and is a nice complement. Mark Dantonio's teams always play excellent defense and this year's team is allowing 11.0 PPG (10th) on 228.5 YPG (3rd). Michigan St has dominated this series the last 20 meetings, winning 17! I don't see that changing here, as I believe the MSU offense will have plenty of success against the Indiana defense. Not Ohio St-like success, but I'll take the team's 36.7 PPG average excluding the ASU game. Consider these two factoids. This is Mark Dantonio's 13th season at East Lansing and MSU has played Indiana 10 times in his first 12, averaging 40.3 PPG. As for Lewerke, let me add that only ONE Michigan State QB has thrown for 6,000 yards and rushed for 1,000 in his career (Drew Stanton). Lewerke will join Stanton with 39 more yards rushing. My point? He's better than most think. Yes, MSU's defense is strong but Indiana head coach Tom Allen is keeping the Spartans guessing as to which QB will start, Ramsey or Penix. MSU has dominated the series the last two decades but Indiana owns one win over the last three meetings, winning by three in OT (2016), before losing by eight and 14 the last two. I expect the Hoosiers to surprise by moving the ball (and getting into the end zone), more than most think. This total is low enough to 'sail' over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-28-19 | Rutgers v. Michigan OVER 48.5 | 0-52 | Win | 100 | 45 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Eye-Opener is on Rutgers/Michigan Over at 12:00 ET. Michigan hired Jim Harbaugh so he could return the Wolverines to the "top of the college football world." However, that has NOT quite been n the case. Harbaugh is 0-4 against Ohio State and Michigan's 35-17 loss ('ass kicking') at Wisconsin was just another in a growing list of Michigan failures on the road against ranked opponents in Harbuagh's tenure. The Wolverines fell behind 28-0 at the half in Madison and when Michigan finally scored (with just 2:03 remaining in the third quarter), Wisconsin had already scored 35 points. The Michigan defense was shredded for 487 yards, including a WHOPPING 359 on the ground (6.3 YPC). Michigan returns to Ann Arbor Saturday to take on Rutgers, which checks in at 1-2 (0-1 Big Ten). Rutgers opened the 2019 season with a 48-21 win over UMass, ending an 11-game losing streak but has followed with a 30-0 loss at Iowa and a 30-16 home loss to BC. The Scarlet Knights joined the Big Ten in 2014 and after going 8-5 (3-5 in Big Ten) that first season, have lost 32 of their last 36 conference games, including 13 in a row heading into Saturday's contest. There was some good news coming out of last weeks loss to BC, as QB Artur Sitkowski had one of the best games of his young career. The sophomore QB completed 23-of-33 passes for 304 yards and a touchdown. Head coach Chris Ash revealed he will get the start against Michiga, as McLane Carter remains in the concussion protocol. Michigan QB Shea Patterson has looked uncomfortable in the team's new offense and both of his TD passes came after Michigan was down 35-0. He finished 14-of-32 for 219 yards with one interception plus lost a fumble. Backup QB Dylan McCaffrey went 3-of-8 for 40 yards before he was knocked out of the game by a high hit that drew a targeting penalty. He we will miss Saturday's game with a concussion. Here's the bottom line. Rutgers is simply in the WRONG place at the WRONG time. Maybe Ash could have counted on Harbaugh to "go easy" on him but NOT coming off last week's HUGELY disappointing 18-point loss at Wisconsin. Harbaugh got to Michigan in 2015 and the year before, Rutgers beat Michigan 26-24. Harbaugh's 'blasted' the Scarlet Knights in each of his first four meetings, averaging a WHOPPING 51.0 PPG. I can see Michigan "going over" all by themselves in this one but I also think we'll get some points out of Rutgers, after seeing Sitkowski throw for 304 yards against BC last Saturday. Michigan will score early and often (and may not stop), but watch for Rutgers to get a couple (or three) TDs of its own. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-27-19 | Arizona State +5 v. California | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 64 h 25 m | Show |
My 9* Friday Night Lights play is on Arizona St at 10:30 ET. California got off to its third consecutive 3-0 start in 2019 and entered the AP top-25 on Sep 15 at No. 23. Cal visited Oxford last Saturday and secured a 28-20 road victory over Ole Miss with a last-second stop at the goal line plus received a breakout performance by QB Chase Garbers, who threw for four TDs and finished 23-of-35 for 357 yards in the air. Cal's win saw them make the biggest 'leap' of any school in the new AP poll (Sep 22), jumping from No. 23 to No. 15. Cal welcomes Arizona State to Berkeley Friday night. The Sun Devils upset then-No. 18 Michigan St 10-7 at East Lansing on Sep 14, moving to 3-0 and No. 24 in the AP poll. However, ASU lost 34-31 at home last Saturday to Colorado and at 3-1, fell out of the rankings. ASU has a freshman QB in Daniels and he's 'learning fast.' He opened by throwing for 588 yards (3 TDs and 0 INTs) in ASU's first two games but then had all sorts of problems at Mich St, throwing for just 140 yards. Yes, the Sun Devils lost to the Buffs last Saturday, but Daniels passed for 345 yards with two TDs. Cal's D has gotten a lot of pub since late 2018 (and with good reason) but despite allowing 34 points to Colorado, the ASU defense is allowing only 13.8 PPG (17th) on 346.0 YPG (49th). PK Brandon Ruiz has yet to play this season because of an undisclosed injury and is unlikely to return Friday. However, walk-on kicker Cristian Zendejas may not have his range, but he's made NINE of his 10 field-goal attempts. Cal was hardly impressive in 27-13 and 23-17 wins over UC-Davis and North Texas at home, respectively, but owns two quality road wins. The Bears won 20-19 at then-No. 14 Washington and then at SEC foe Ole Miss (see above). QB Chase Garbers came into Oxford last Saturday having completed just 20- of 40 passes for 240 yards in his previous two games but threw for 357 yards and four TDs vs the Rebels. Cal needed "all of that," as its much-heralded defense did hold Ole Miss to 20 points (the Bears have held 11 straight opponents to fewer than 24 points) but a check of the stat sheet shows a mediocre Ole Miss offense gained 525 yards! ASU suffered a let down against Colorado off its win at MSU the week before but Herm Edwards knows his team really needs a bounce-back win here. Is Cal really as good as its press clippings? I'm not sold and will note that Cal was 1-5-1 ATS at home last season and is 0-2 ATS at home to start 2019. Meanwhile, ASU is 7-2-1 ATS its last 10 as a road dog. I'm calling for the outright upset. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-27-19 | Braves v. Mets -115 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The Atlanta Braves have clinched the NL's second seed (will host the NL Central winner in one of the two NLDS), so their focus will be on getting their lineup in order as they open a three-game series at Citi Field with the Mets on Friday.Ronald Acuna Jr. will sit out the Mets series with a left groin strain that he suffered in Tuesday’s loss at Kansas City but first baseman Freddie Freeman, who missed the Kansas City series with a bone spur in his right elbow, is expected to return Friday. The Mets were eliminated from playoff contention on Wednesday but have clinched their first winning season since 2016. All eyes will be on likely NL Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso, who enters the final three games of the season with a big-league best 51 HRs, one off Aaron Judge’s rookie record of 52 set in 2017. Alonso is also attempting to become the first Mets player to lead the majors in home runs, as he leads Cincinnati third baseman Eugenio Suarez by two. Getting the starts will be Dallas Keuchel (8-7, 3.59 ERA) and Marcus Stroman (9-13, 3.23 ERA).Many feel that Keuchel has provided Atlanta with needed veteran presence, giving up two ERs or less in EIGHT of his last nine starts. I'm not so sure I agree. The Braves are just 10-8 in his 18 overall starts and in eight road starts, he owns a 4.76 ERA, 1.57 WHIP and .291 BAA. I will note however, that Keuchel has faced the Mets twice since joining the Braves in late June, going 1-0 with no runs allowed on nine hits with 14 strikeouts in 13 innings. The Mets acquired Stroman from Toronto at the trade deadline and he's gone 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA in 10 starts (Mets are 7-3). The Mets won Stroman's first four starts and lost his next three, but enter this contest having won his last three. Has Stroman been "all the Mets had hoped he'd be?" I guess beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Not sure there is any kind of pitching edge in this one but Stroman is 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three career starts against the Braves, including his only start against them with the Mets coming on Aug. 15 in Atlanta. He allowed three runs (two earned) in 5.1 innings of a 10-8 win in that one. I doubt Keuchel will pitch more than five innings but I can see Stroman, who will become a free agent after the 2020 season, pitching very well. Again, all eyes will be on Alonso and I "have a feeling" this could be a big night for him. Not much for the Braves to play for here. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-19 | Eagles +4.5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Thursday Showdown is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. The Green Bay Packers fired longtime head coach Mike McCarthy late last season and gave 39-year-old Matt LaFleur his first head coaching job. So far, so good. The Packers are one of SEVEN teams to open 2019 at 3-0 (note: 136 of the 180 teams or 75.5 percent to start 3-0 have made the playoffs since 1980). The Packers are seeking their first 4-0 start in four years when they host the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday night. The Eagles, who won the Super Bowl in the 2017 season, check in at just 1-2, with the two loses coming by a combined SEVEN points. Here's a stat the Eagles won't like. Only one team in the Super Bowl era, the 2001 New England Patriots, started the season 1-3 and rebounded to win it all. The Eagles rallied from a 17-0 deficit in Week 1 against Washington to take a 32-20 lead. However, Washington scored with six seconds left to make it a 32-27 and a non-cover for Philly. The Eagles followed that Week 1 win with back-to-back games at Atlanta (24-20) and at home to Detroit (27-24).Head coach Doug Pederson canceled practice one day last week due to the number of injuries on the team but the receiving corps will get a boost with the return of Alshon Jeffery after he sat out Sunday's contest due to a calf strain. DeSean Jackson remains sidelined with an abdominal strain but Nelson Agholor has been a pretty good "fill in," with 18 catches and three TDs on the season. TE Zach Ertz has a team-high 17 receptions but has yet to find the end zone. Carson Wentz clearly needs more help from his running game, which is averaging 99.7 YPG (17th) on 3.6 YPC. The Philly pass D is a mess, surrendering 293.7 YPG (29th), with the pass rush recorded only two sacks in three games. However, who could have imagined a Rodgers-led offense ranking 28th in total yards (286.7 YPPG), including 197.2 YPG passing (27th)? That's the case though, as the Packers check in scoring only 19.3 PPG (23rd). "We've never wanted to just manage the football game around here, so the standards are very high for us," Aaron Rodgers said. "We gotta play a lot better on offense. We've played some good defenses, no doubt about it, but the standard and the expectations are very high here and we haven't met them on offense. ... At some point, we can't expect our defense to shut everybody down. They have been. But at some point the offense is going to have to wake up and start making some plays." Defense has been the key to Green Bay's 3-0 start, holding opponents to 11.7 PPG (2nd-best in the NFL). Wentz is completing 61.0% for 803 yards with six TDs and two INTs, which isn't bad. As noted already, he's NOT getting much help from his running game plus Wentz had EIGHT of his passes dropped against the Lions, including a deep ball to J.J. Arcega-Whiteside that could've been the go-ahead score in the final minute. A week earlier, Nelson Agholor dropped what could've been a go-ahead 60-yard TD with under two minutes left in a 24-20 loss at Atlanta. Philly could be 3-0, instead of 1-2. The Packers are not just 3-0 but also 3-0 ATS but I'm not convinced the Packers are a better team than the Eagles. Matt LaFleur may be 3-0 but Doug Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning coach and a 1-3 Philly start would put his team in "crisis-mode" before Oct 1. The Eagles are 0-3 ATS and Green Bay 3-0 ATS but that changes here. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-19 | Navy +11 v. Memphis | Top | 23-35 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 13 m | Show |
My NCAAF 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on Navy at 8:00 ET. Ken Niumatalolo took over at Navy when Paul Johnson moved on to Ga Tech and led the Midshipmen to NINE bowls in his first 10 seasons. The Middies "fell apart" in 2018, going 3-10. Actually, the team's 'fall' began in 2017, when Navy lost SIX of its last seven regular season games, after opening 5-0. I expect a bounce-back season for Navy in 2019 and the Midshipmen and after a win over Holy Cross, Navy rolled over East Carolina 42-10 in its second game of the season. The schedule maker has 'eased' 2-0 Navy into the 2019 season, as the Midshipmen opened at home vs Holy Cross, had a week off and then beat East Carolina. Navy again had a week off and now it's the team's conference road opener at 3-0 Memphis, which is playing its AAC opener. When Tommy West took over Memphis in 2001, the school had only been to one bowl in its history (Pasadena Bowl in 1971). West took the Tigers to five bowl but was fired after a 2-10 season in 2011.Larry Porter's two-year tenure as a 3-21 'nightmare,' as was Justin Fuente's first two years with Memphis. Fuente went 7-17 in 2012 and 2013 but led Memphis to a 10-3 season in 2014 (Miami Beach Bowl win) and then to a 9-3 season in 2015 (left for Va Tech before the bowl game). Mike Norvell enters his fourth season, off three bowl appearances, although the Tigers have lost all three. Navy QB Malcolm Perry is a dangerous 'weapon' in Navy's option offense. He showed his evolution as a passer by becoming the first Navy QB since 2010 to rush and pass for at least 150 yards in the same game while accounting for six TDs vs East Carolina (156 rush yards with 4 TDs / 151 passing yards with 2 TDs). He's backed by a group of RBs well-schooled in the team's triple-option, as Navy is No. 1 in the nation, averaging 371.5 YPG on the ground (5.7 YPC). Sure, the opponents have only been Holy Cross and ECU, but the defense has allowed only 8.5 PPG (2nd) on 227.0 YPG (4th) Memphis was hardly impressive in its 15-10 season-opening home win over Ole Miss plus a 55-24 home win over Southern and a 42-6 road win at South Alabama are nice but this will be a tougher test. QB White showed little vs Ole Miss (172 yards with one INT), so his 546 yards with five TDs (just one INT) vs Southern and South Alabama still leaves a question mark. However, the Memphis D has been impressive, allowing 13.3 PPG (15th) on 226.3 YPG (3rd0. Many will find this stat a surprise (I did), as Memphis' 48 wins since 2014 rank No. 13 in the FBS. However, these schools have met just FOUR times, all recently as AAC members. Navy is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in those meetings and I'm predicting that its vaunted triple-option will control clock in this one. Yes, the Midshipmen haven’t won a road game since September of 2017 but Navy is 20-10 ATS as a road dog since 2009. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-24-19 | Braves -151 v. Royals | 6-9 | Loss | -151 | 10 h 14 m | Show | |
My 7* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Braves at 8:15 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 11:00 ET Tuesday morning. | |||||||
09-24-19 | Brewers v. Reds -116 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers begin a season-ending six-game road trip tonight in Cincinnati with the first of three games with the Reds.The Brewers are 15-2 in their last 17 games, including an impressive 10-2 since losing 2018 MVP Christian Yelich for the season. Milwaukee is a MLB-best 17-4 in September and enters Tuesday 3 1/2 games back of St Louis in the NL Central, a half-game back of the 86-69 Nats for the No. 1 wild card spot but a full FOUR games clear of the Cubs for that second wild card spot with just SIX games remaining (a playoff spot seems pretty safe). As for the Reds, they have already secured a SIXTH straight losing season but at 73-83, they can match their highest win total since 2014 (76) by going 3-3 this week or exceed that win total by winning four or more games (note: Reds cap their season with three games at the sad-sack Pirates, who currently own a nine-game losing streak). Adrian Houser (6-7, 3.83 ERA) takes the mound tonight for the Brewers against the Reds' Sonny Gray (11-7, 2.80 ERA). Houser entered the 2019 season with just nine career appearances, all in relief. He's made 33 appearances this season, including 16 starts. This marks his 11th consecutive start. Houser has allowed two ERs or less in SEVEN of his last 10 but he hasn't pitched past the fifth inning in any of his last FIVE. Houser has made 17 road appearances this season, posting a 4.42 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and .281 BAA. Houser's only career start vs the Reds came back in July 1 at Cincy, when he allowed three ERs over five innings of an 8-6 Milwaukee win (he settled for a no-decision). Sonny Gray made the NL All Star team this season and continued his second-half surge with last Tuesday's 4-2 win at Wrigley against the Cubs (6.2 IP / 2 ERs / 9 Ks). He enters this contest 6-2 with a 1.91 ERA in 13 starts since the All-Star break, holding opponents to a .164 average and recording 96 strikeouts in 80 innings.The Reds lost his first two post-break starts (despite Gray posting a 2.08 ERA) but Cincy has won NINE of his last 11 starts. Gray could pitch Sunday at Pittsburgh but this may be his last start of 2019, a season in which he has "re-found" himself by showing the form that made him a 14-game winner for the A's in 2014 and '15. Sure, the Brewers are MLB's 'hottest' team but oddsmakers have made them the underdog here, because of the pitching matchup (or should I say, mismatch?). Gray is 2-0 with a 1.78 ERA in five career starts vs Milwaukee (FOUR have come here in 2019), with his teams going a PERFECT 5-0! Make that 6-0 after tonight! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Monday Night Madness is on the Was Redskins at 8:15 ET. The Chicago Bears' defense (17.7 PPG allowed was an NFL-best) helped them win the NFC North last year at 12-4. Chicago's D has opened the current season allowing just 12.0 PPG but the team's offense has been absolutely pathetic, averaging 9.5 PPG to rank 31st of 32 teams! Chicago lost 10-3 at home to the Packers in Week 3 and then eked out a 16-14 win at Denver in Week 2. The Washington Redskins have opened 0-2, losing 32-27 at Philly and 31-21 at home to Dallas. Washington's defense has allowed 31.5 PPG (2nd-most in the league) on 455.0 YPG (3rd-highest total). It will be a QB 'battle' of Trubisky vs Keenum, not exactly a replay of Luckman vs Baugh in the 1940 NFL championship game (note: Bears famously won that won 73-0!). Trubisky (58.3% for 348 yards without a TD pass and one INT for a 65.0 QB rating so far in 2019) was the "controversial" No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft but has led the Bears to just one TD in 22 offensive possessions this season. Chicago's lone TD came on a 1-yard-run by David Montgomery last week and the team is averaging only 99.5 YPG on the ground (18th). That is hardly good enough when Trubisky ranks near the bottom of the league at 4.8 yards a completion. The defense is still impressive but....Washington QB Case Keenum has limited offensive 'weapons' but he's played well against two quality teams, Philly and Dallas. Keenum is completing 69.1% for 601 yards with five TDs, zero INTs and a QB rating of 111.2. Of course, the defense is a concern but Chicago's "O" may be "just what the doctor ordered" for Washington's "stop-unit." Is it fair to call Washington's D a stop unit? Chicago is VERY lucky to be 1-1, as PK Eddie Pineiro bailed them out by making a 53-yard FB at the gun last week in Denver. Mitchell Trubisky has so far "taken a step back" in his third season and laying points on the road (no less on Monday night), seems like 'a bridge too far!' Jay Gruden's team has gone 6-2 ATS since the start of last year when his team was playing with a healthy starting QB. Keenum's healthy AND he's played very well. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-23-19 | Marlins v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Run-Line Game of the Year is on the NY Mets at 7:10 ET. The New York Mets are still mathematically 'alive' in the NL wild card chase but the fact is that the Mets enter their final seven contests with a 4 1/2-game deficit in the race for the second wild card in the National League. The scorching Brewers (86-70)completed a three-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 4-3 Sunday win and are now 15-2 in their last 17 games to move into a virtual tie with the Nationals (85-79) for the top wild card.Catching either of those teams seems like a REAL stretch for the Mets. However, Sunday's win by the Mets (81-74) assured them of just their THIRD non-losing season this decade. Also, New York hit three HRs on Sunday to push the franchise record to 231 (note: in comparison, the Marlins have hit only 134 HRs). Staying with Miami, the 54-101 (.348) Marlins have been playing out the string for most of a second straight rebuilding season. Miami finished with the NL's worst record in 2018 (63-98, .391) and will do so again in 2019. Taking the mound for tonight's contest are two lefties, Miami's Caleb Smith (9-10, 4.24 ERA) and New York's Steven Matz (10-9, 4.16 ERA). Smith had lost four straight decisions before getting a victory at Arizona last Tuesday, although he allowed four ERs in five innings. Smith opened the season allowing two ERs in EIGHT of his first nine starts (allowed just three ERs in the other one), posting a 3-1 record with a 2.38 ERA (sad-sack Marlins were just 5-4). He's pretty much struggled the rest of the season pitching for the NL's worst team, as his ERA has risen almost two FULL runs to 4.24. The Mets counter with Matz, who is coming off an 'ugly' outing at Coors Field, allowing seven ERs in just four innings of a 9-4 loss. However, he had allowed just nine ERs over his previous seven starts, posting a 1.77 ERA in 45.2 innings. Matz has struggled all season on the road (6.62 ERA / 1.58 WHIP / .2923 BAA) but here at Citi Field, the numbers are 1.94 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and .225 BAA. Matz has had little trouble with the Marlins in his career (2.83 ERA in 11 starts) and the Mets have won 11 of 15 vs Miami in 2019. Note that the Mets have won 10 of Matz's 13 home starts in 2019, and just TWO of those 10 home wins have come by one run. The other eight have had a margin of victory of 4.4 RPG. Matz faces a Marlins lineup which ranks 29th in scoring (3.77 per), 26th in team BA (.240) and 30th in OPS (.671). Laying the 1 1/2 runs seems 'cheap!' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-22-19 | Rams -3 v. Browns | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 38 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET. The Cleveland Browns found themselves on the cover of SI, which has typically turned out to be "the kiss of death." The Browns opened the 2019 season with a dreadful 30-point loss at home vs the Titans but then were able to bully the New York Jets last Monday, 23-3. The Jets began the game already missing starting QB Sam Darnold and then his replacement, Trevor Simiean, went down with a season-ending injury. Mayfield threw for 325 yards with OBJ reeling in six passes for 161 yards, including an 89-yard TD. The Browns return home to host the defending NFC champs on Sunday night. The Rams are 2-0, winning 30-27 at Carolina, before beating the Saints 27-9 last Sunday at home, in what was billed as New Orleans "payback game" from last year's NFC championship game. Jared Goff is off to a modest start (62.7% & 469 yards with two TDs and one INT) and it could be a concern that he's had just one TD (or none) in NINE of his last 10 games (including last year's postseason). However, the good news is that WR Cooper Kupp, who went down in Week 10 of 2018 with a knee injury, is back healthy and leading the team with 12 receptions for 166 yards. Fellow WRs Woods has 10 catches and Cooks has just five but he's averaging 22.6 per reception. RB Todd Gurley also seems to have put his late-season knee issues of 2018 behind him. Gurley has 160 yards rushing (5.3 YPC) plus backup Malcolm Brown has 90 yards (5.3 YPC & 2 TDs), as the Rams attempt to lessen the load on Gurley. Gurley has insisted his knee is fine and he's ready for any workload. We'll see. Mayfield had a nice game against the sad-sack and depleted Jets but threw three INTs and posted a 64.0 QB rating against the defensively solid Titans. The criticism has been that Mayfield has been guilty of holding onto the ball too long and not taking advantage of receivers being open while trying to complete long passes. Chubb is clearly a solid RB (137 yards / 3.9 YPC but not yet a star (if ever?). Of course, OBJ is a talent but with him, one never knows. The question here will be, is Mayfield up to the task of playing well against the highly-coordinated LA defense, led by defensive guru, Wade Phillips? It's said that the Rams' offense has yet to "get it together" but let me note that LA has scored 30 and 27 points the first two weeks. The Rams opened last year 8-0 (and 10-1) plus since McVay has taken over, the Rams are 14-3 SU on the road. Not much of a number to 'cover' here, so the Rams it is! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-22-19 | Phillies v. Indians -119 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Cle Indians at 6:37 ET. Bryce Harper's three-run HR catapulted the Philiies to a 9-4 win last night in Cleveland. However, the 79-74 Phillies remain FIVE games behind the Brewers for the NL's second wild card with only NINE nine left to play. Time is running out on Philadelphia but the team has no one to blame but itself, as the Phillies are just 32-31 since All Star break. Cleveland built a 4-1 lead after two innings last night but managed just ONE hit the rest of the way to see its five-game winning streak come to an end and the loss dropped them to 91-64, ONE game behind Tampa Bay for the AL’s second wild card. The rubber match of the three-game series goes tonight, carried on ESPN. Vince Velasquez (7-7, 4.89 ERA) and Adam Plutko (7-4, 4.34 ERA) step to the mound tonight. Let's note that Velasquez is unbeaten in his last six outings (3-0 / team is 5-1) but add that his ERA in that stretch is 6.84. I'll also add that he has not completed more than five innings in any of his last SEVEN starts. Velasquez is 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA in two career outings against the Indians. Plutko is 3-1 with a 3.76 ERA over seven starts (Indians are 5-2) since Aug15 and takes the mound tonight having allowed two ERs or less or in FIVE of his last six starts. Plutko will be facing Philadelphia for the first time in his career. The idea that Velasquez has pitched well because he's unbeaten in his last six starts is folly (6.84 ERA, remember?), as he's just been lucky to get some excellent run support. I saw someone post that Fangraphs had Philly's chances of securing a playoff spot at 0.3% and that may be generous. Philadelphia is a 'dead team walking!' Meanwhile the Indians are just ONE back of Tampa Bay and VERY much 'alive' to make their FOURTH straight playoff appearance. Home teams wins this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry |
Service | Profit |
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William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |