Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks -3 v. Cardinals | Top | 34-37 | Loss | -124 | 61 h 1 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET. The NFL enters its Week 7 with THREE unbeaten teams. The 5-0 Steelers and 5-0 Titans will square off in Nashville at 1:00 ET and the lone remaining unbeaten, the 5-0 Seahawks will play at Arizona vs the 4-2 Cards. The Raiders were scheduled to host the Bucs in Las Vegas for NBC's Sunday Night Football but had to place four starting offensive linemen plus a safety on the reserve/COVID-19 list. All five players were deemed high-risk contacts and the NFL then announced on Thursday that the Raiders' game against the Bucs had been moved to 4:05 ET "out of an abundance of caution to ensure that a game would be available for fans on Sunday Night Football." This Seattle/Arizona contest will now be Week 7's SNF matchup. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is widely considered the front-runner for the NFL's MVP award a third of the way through the season, as he's completing 72.8% for 1,502 yards while leading the league with 19 TD passes (just three INTs) and with a 129.8 QB rating. He also contributes to the Seattle running game, rushing for 153 yards on 6.7 YPC with three TDs. RB Carson is the "featured" back and has 289 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC with three TDs. Carlson also has 21 catches with three more TDs. Wilson has an outstanding group of receivers, as Luckett leads with 30 catches but Metcalf has become the big playmaker with 22 catches, a 22.5 YPC average and five TDs. WR Moore has 10 catches (17.3 YPC and three TDs), while TD Olsen adds 15 catches. Seattle's Achilles' Heel is a defense allowing a league-high 431.2 YPG. With scoring way up this year, at least Seattle isn't one of the NINE teams allowing 30-plus PPG (27.8). Arizona's second-year QB Kyler Murray completed just 9 of 24 attempts against the Cowboys but two went for TDs, including an 80-yarder to Christian Kirk that gave Arizona a 21-0 lead. Murray also rushed for 74 yards and a TD. He's completing 65.9% for 1,487 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs. Those are not quite Wilson-like stats but he's also run for 370 yards (7.3 YPC) with six TDs. RB Kenyan Drake is turning into a solid player, rushing for 4678 yards (4.6 YPC) and four TDs. Future HOF Fitzgerald may have 21 catches but he's averaging only 6.9 YPC without a TD. Hopkins is now the team's "go-to" WR with 47 catches, with Kirk catching 13 passes (18.5 YPC) with three TDs. Arizona owns a HUGE edge on defense, holding opponents to about 100 YPG less than Seattle's D and to just 18.7 PPG (almost 10 PPG less). Seattle will NOT go 16-0, so a loss is coming and it's a fact that THREE of Seattle's five victories have come down to the game's final 15 seconds. However, Seattle is coming off a bye week (covered FIVE of the last seven in that situation), while Arizona is off its MNF win at Dallas. Murray vs Dalton was a mismatch but can Murray outplay Wilson? My bet says no. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-25-20 | 49ers v. Patriots -2 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -116 | 121 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET. The defending Super Bowl champion KC Chiefs have opened the 2020 season 5-1 and sit atop the AFC West. However, KC is the LONE division winner from 2019 to actually lead its division here in 2020, as the season gets set for Week 7. I won't list all of the reigning division winners 'looking up' to at least ONE team in their respective divisions here but WILL discuss TWO of those seven teams, as they meet Sunday in Foxboro. The San Francisco 49ers won the NFC West last season at 13-3 (and advanced to the Super Bowl) but their 3-3 record leaves them in last-place in 2020, behind not only the 5-0 Seahawks but also the 4-2 Rams and Cards. The Pats are more than just the defending AFC East champs, as New England entered 2020 having captured the AFC East title the previous 11 years and in 17 of the last 19 seasons (since 2001). The Pats welcome the 49ers to Gillette Stadium on Sunday with a 2-3 record. New England hasn't been under .500 through the fifth game or later in any season since they were 3-4 in 2002, which was the last season the Patriots did not win 10-plus games. The 49ers just evened their record at 3-3 last Sunday night, beating the Rams 24-16. The 49ers rode the excellent play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% for 3,978 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs / 102.0 QB rating), the NFC's best running game (144.1 YPG) and the NFC's stingiest defense (281.0 YPG) all the way to the Super Bowl last season. However, injuries have plagued them all season, on both sides of the ball. Garoppolo was completing 67.3% of his passes (4 TDs / 0 INTs) when he got hurt in Week 2. He returned in Week 5 but with the Miami Dolphins up 30-7 at halftime (Niners would lose 43-17), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan pulled him during the half (concerned for his health). Garoppolo 'was on the money" against the Rams, throwing three first-half TD passes, finishing 23 of 33 for 268 yards without an INT (124.3 QB rating). RB Raheem Mostert also got back in the lineup and ran 17 times for 65 yards before suffering an ankle injury and leaving the game early in the third quarter. TE George Kittle caught seven passes for 109 yards and one TD, as the 49ers offense that did most of its damage in the first half en route to a 21-6 lead. The San Francisco defense, which was last seen serving up 436 yards and 43 points in a blowout home loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, held the Rams to 311 yards, in large part by limiting QB Jared Goff, who finished with a modest 198 passing yards on just 19 of 38 completions. Jason Verrett stalled a Los Angeles Rams third quarter rally with an end-zone interception and a fourth-and-goal (allowing San Francisco to retain a 21-9) and when LA made it a one-score margin on a 40-yard TD pass from Goff with 3:24 to play, the San Francisco offense ran out the clock (Rams never got the ball back). The New England didn't allow a TD in Week 6 but Denver's Brandon McManus kicked a franchise-record SIX field goals to lift the visiting Denver Broncos to an 18-12 victory last Sunday. The game originally scheduled for Oct 12 and was pushed back to this past Sunday due to several COVID-19 cases in the Patriots' organization. New England was unable to hold many practices over the previous two weeks, including having Friday's session canceled due to center James Ferentz being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. QB Cam Newton saw his first action since Week 3 and ran for 76 yards and a touchdown and went 17-for-25 passing but for only 157 yards with TWO interceptions. He has options at WR in Edelman (20 catches), Harry (18 catches) and Byrd (17) plus RB White has 165 catches in the last two games. Newton lead the Past with 225 rushing and has five rushing TDs but they'll need better passing number out of him. RB Sony Michel has run for 173 (6.7 YPC) in just three games but was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list for the Denver game (status unknown at this time for Sunday). The New England D did its job vs Denver, allowing just 299 yards plus holding Denver to 4 of 14 on third downs. The Pats D was the best in the league last season but one can't and didn't expect this year's unit to hold opponents to 14.1 PPG, again. Scores are up in 2020 and the Pats are allowing 22.1 PPG (not bad) and rank 9th in total D, allowing 275.9 YPG. The 49ers and Patriots are among the NFL’s most storied franchises with 11 SB titles between them (Pats own six and the Niners five). Garoppolo would NO doubt love to get a victory over the team that drafted him (sat behind Brady from 2014-17) but Newton (a former MVP) has MUCH to prove as well. The clincher for me is, it hasn't been often that one can back Belichick (coming off TWO straight losses) at such a small 'price' and at HOME, no less! The 49ers may be 2-0 on the road in 2020 but those wins have come at MetLife Stadium over the Giants and Jets (a combined 1-11). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-25-20 | Browns v. Bengals +3.5 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 118 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 7 Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. It's the "Battle 4 Ohio" Part 2. The Browns won Part 1 back in Week 2 on a Thursday night, 35-30. In that contest, Cincy took a 3-0 lead but Cleveland never trailed after going up 7-3. However, the Bengals "never went away," and Burrow's third TD pass of the game (with 43 seconds left) gave the Bengals the "backdoor cover." Burrow threw for 316 yards and three TDs (zero INTs) in his second career start, while Baker Mayfield threw for 219 yards with two TDs and one INT. The difference in the game was Cleveland's running game, which produced 215 yards (6.1 YPC) compared to Cincinnati's 68 yards on 2.8 YPC. The Browns lead the NFL in rushing (169.5 YPG) with Kareem Hunt (387 yards on 4.7 YPC with three TDs) filling in admirably for starter Nick Chubb (knee), who remains on injured reserve. The Bengals average only 101.8 YPG on the ground, with Joe Mixon doing almost all of the heavy lifting (428 rushing yards / 3.6 YPC / three TDs). The Browns lost their 2020 opener at Baltimore 38-6 but then ripped off FOUR straight wins to open 4-1 for the first time since 1994. The Cleveland offense was terrific in the winning streak, averaging 37.5 PPG. In fact, the Browns scored at least 30 points in each of those four straight wins, marking the first time they had reached that total in four straight games since 1968! However, as I noted last Sunday in winning a 10* play on the Steelers (Rivalry Game of the Year), the Cleveland defense was the team's Achilles' heel. Cleveland entered its game in Pittsburgh allowing 29.8 PPG, which was a TD and two-point conversion higher than what Pittsburgh was allowing (21.8 PPG). The result? A 38-7 rout by the Steelers. The Browns would appear to be on track for their first winning record since 2007 at 4-2 but it doesn't seem that way to QB Baker Mayfield. or wide-receiver OBJ. "The feeling throughout (our) building after that loss -- 4-2 has never felt so much like 0-6 before," Mayfield said. "But that's because we have very high expectations for ourselves." Odell Beckham Jr. added, "I'm pissed. And at this point, I don't really care to keep trying to make myself look like a good guy to the world and all that. ... Tired of losing. Tired of losing to good teams." Mayfield is completing 60.6 percent for 1,095 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 84.3). Not bad but he was supposed to Cleveland's 'savior.' WRs Landry (24 catches / 13.3 YPC / 0 TDs) and OBJ (23 catches / 13.9 YPC / 3 TDs) have hardly been "as good as advertised." "Tired of losing" is a sentiment that Cincinnati is all too familiar with. The Bengals lost another winnable game last Sunday in a 31-27 setback at the Indianapolis Colts. The now 1-4-1 Bengals jumped out to a 21-0 lead, but lost after a missed fourth-quarter FG and Joe Burrow's interception in the red zone inside the final minute. "I played really well for three quarters and 14 minutes and then had one bad play," said Burrow, who threw for 313 yards. The 2020 NFL Draft's overall No. 1 pick is completing 65.0 percent for 1,617 yards with six TDs and four INTs. He has four 300-yard passing games in six starts this season but has now gone two games without a TD pass (69 attempts). Burrow said after the loss, "Put it behind us and go back to work tomorrow." However, his OL is shaky (he's been sacked 24 times, 2nd-most in the league) and I've already noted the problems with the running game. Of more concern is that Joe Mixon did not practice Wednesday with an injured foot. He rushed for a team season-high 151 yards in the Bengals' lone win in Week 4 vs Jacksonville. After ripping off four straight wins, the Browns were held to just SEVEN points, 12 FD’s and 220 yards at Pittsburgh. Cleveland has now lost to the AFC North's two-best teams, 38-6 at Baltimore and 38-7 at Pittsburgh. OK, the Browns now face the 1-4-1 Bengals but let's remember, they'll arrive in Cincinnati with a defense allowing 31.2 PPG. The Bengals have been "right in" FIVE of six games this season (lone exception being a 27-3 Week 5 loss at Baltimore) plus let me note that Cincinnati has covered 10 of the last 12 games in this series dating back to the midway point of 2014. The home dog 'barks' LOUDLY enough in this one to earn a SU win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-25-20 | Lions v. Falcons -1 | Top | 23-22 | Loss | -128 | 77 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET. The Atlanta Falcons opened 0-5 and that start got head coach Dan Quinn fired. In my opinion, he should have been fired immediately after Atlanta blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI against the Patriots (New England scored the game's last 31 points to win 34-28 in OT). Raheem Morris spent three seasons as head coach of the Bucs, producing a poor 17-31 record and had just been promoted to DC in Atlanta at the start of 2020. He was named interim head coach after the firing of Quinn and had to be pleased with Atlanta's 40-23 win at Minnesota last Sunday. Detroit's head coach Matt Patricia knows all about 'feeling the heat,' as he went 6-10 in his first season as head coach in Detroit (2018), before going 3-12-1 last season. The Lions ended 2019 on a NINE-game losing skid. Detroit ended its 11-game slide (2-9 ATS) with a 26-23 win at Arizona in Week 3 but lost the following week at home to the Saints. Detroit opened a 14-0 lead but the Saints then scored on their next FIVE possessions to take a 35-14 lead (Saints won 35-29). The Lions did win last Sunday, crushing the sad-sack Jags 34-16 in Jacksonville Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has used Adrian Peterson, rookie De'Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson in the backfield. Peterson has received the bulk of the work (285 yards on 4.1 YPC / 2 TDs) but Swift had a breakthrough performance against the Jaguars, rushing for 116 yards on 14 carries and two TDs. I'm not sure where that effort came from, as Swift had run for just 44 yards the first four games. The Detroit running game averages just 117.4 YPG. QB Matthew Stafford always puts up big numbers (he surpassed 4,000 yards passing seven straight seasons from 2011-17) but he's just 71-82-1 as a starter in the regular season plus is 0-3 in three postseason games. He's thrown for 1,240 yards through five games (on pace for just under 4,000 yards) with nine TDs and four INTs but his receiving corps seems pretty mediocre. TE Hockenson leads with 17 catches and three TDs but the WR trio of Golladay (14), Jones (14) and Amendola (12) don't scare any secondary. Matt Ryan, like Stafford, always puts up big numbers (he entered 2020 with NINE straight seasons of 4,000-plus passing yards) but except for Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl run, he has shown only modest success. Atlanta had a solid running game back in 2016 but the addition of Todd Gurley has not worked out as hoped. He has run for 422 yards (4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) but in the big win over Minnesota last Sunday, he was a non-factor with 47 yards on 20 carries. Who was a factor for Atlanta was WR Julio Jones. It's no secret that Jones makes the Falcons a much more dangerous team. Following a strong opening-day performance against Seattle, Jones missed two games and struggled through two others with a hamstring injury. It was part of the reason why the Falcons started 0-5, However, he caught passes against the Vikings for 137 yards and two TDs. With Jones sidelined or ineffective early on, Calvin Ridley leads the team with 35 catches and five TDs. Fellow WR Gage has 25 catches and TE Hurst has 17 catches with three TDs. Neither the Lions (28.6 PPG) nor the Falcons (30.7 PPG) play much defense, so this game will be decided by which team plays the better offensive game. My bet says that will be Atlanta, as with Jones back, Ryan has WAY more receiving 'weapons' than Stafford and this contest will NOT be decided by either team's running game. The Lions are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with the Falcons plus getting that "first win of the season," should let the Falcons play with confidence. Atlanta knows it is not making the playoffs this season but being competitive the rest of the way is a reasonable goal. However, losing at home to the Lions would upset the apple cart. The 'apples stay in the cart' for at least one more game. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-25-20 | Bills v. Jets OVER 44.5 | Top | 18-10 | Loss | -118 | 73 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Total of the Month is on Buf/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET. The New York Jets are the only remaining winless NFL team as they welcome the Buffalo Bills to MetLife Stadium for a Week 7 contest on Sunday. The Jets are last in the NFL with 75 points scored (every other NFL team has scored at least 100), which is an average of 12.5 per game. The Jets are also one of EIGHT teams allowing 30-plus points per game (30.8), meaning they are losing by an average of 18.3 PPG. It should not come as a shock that the Jets are also 0-6 ATS. Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, it seemed like the perfect opportunity for someone other than the Patriots to win the AFC East. Why not the Bills? Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen was part of the 2017 NFL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round (he was selected 7th overall). He had not been a prolific passer in his first two seasons but he's a real leader and he has produced. Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen has made excellent strides and became just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. He was terrific in Buffalo's 4-0 start, completing 70.9 percent of his passes, while averaging 331.5 YPG through the air with 12 TDs and just one INT. However, Buffalo has lost back-to-back games, 42-26 at Tennessee and then 26-17 at home to KC this past Monday night. Buffalo's D (allowing 28.0 PPG on the season) sure didn't help but Allen has really regressed in the two losses, completing just 58.8 percent, while averaging only 192.5 YPG passing with four TDs and three INTs. It's really hard to make much of a case for the Jets winning this game (or any upcoming game, either), so I won't try. Sam Darnold suffered an AC joint sprain of his passing shoulder on Oct 1 against the Denver Broncos and Joe Flacco has started the past two games, a span in which the Jets have scored 10 total points. Flacco has completed just 50.6 percent of his passes in his two starts, throwing for 381 yards with one TD and one INT. His QB rating was 82.3 in a 30-10 home loss to Arizona and then a pathetic 50.0 in last Sunday's 24-0 shutout loss in Miami. Sam Darnold (shoulder) returned to practice Wednesday as a limited participant and took the bulk of the first-team repetitions. Adam Gase has yet to name Darnold as Sunday's starter but that's the likely scenario. As for Gase, he's wearing out his welcome very quickly in East Rutherford. Gase led Miami to a 10-6 record and a wild card spot in his first season (2016) but was fired after 6-10 and 7-9 seasons. You tell me why the Jets quickly signed him as their head coach but after a 7-9 record last season, this year's 0-6 start has tongues 'wagging.' These teams met in Week 1 at Buffalo and the Bills won 27-17. The over/under in that game was 39.5 and the over was my "Featured" Sunday total of Week. The total is almost six points higher here but I'm still Goin' Over and here's why. The Bills really NEED a win here to 'stop the bleeding,' as they don't want to see their 4-0 start turn into a 4-3 record after seven games. The Dolphins are 3-3 but on a "bye week" and the Pats are 2-3 and at home to the 49ers. No reason at all for Allen not to regain his form against the Jets "D" and especially if Darnold is back, the Jets should be able to move the ball (and score!) against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 30.2 PPG over its last five games. The total is a FG higher than I had hoped for but adjustments have been made due to the league's overall high scoring so far. Buffalo averaged 30.8 PPG in its 4-0 start and I see them surpassing that average here, which should lead to this game flying over the total. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-24-20 | Cincinnati v. SMU -2.5 | Top | 42-13 | Loss | -109 | 38 h 4 m | Show |
My 9* play (Battle of Unbeatens) is on SMU at 9:00 ET. Luke Fickel was an assistant at Ohio St from 2002-16 but on December 10, 2016, was named as the 39th head coach of the University of Cincinnati, taking the place of the resigning Tommy Tuberville. Fickell's Bearcats went just 4-8 in his first season but 2018 would be a historic turnaround for the program, as Cincy finished with an 11-2 record and a 35-31 victory in the Military Bowl over Va Tech. Fickell was named AAC Coach of the Year for the 2018 season, which was only the third 11-win season in UC history. He led the team to another 11-win season in 2019. The Bearcats reeled off NINE straight wins after falling to Ohio State in the second game of the year but fell two straight weeks to Memphis, in the final regular season game and in the conference championship game. However, for the second straight year, Cincinnati won its bowl game over an ACC team, crushing Boston College 38-6 in the Birmingham Bowl. The Bearcats opened the 2020 season ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and will travel to Dallas on Saturday night at 3-0 and ranked 9th, when they take on SMU (5-0 and ranked 16th). SMU head coach Sonny Dykes spent three years at La Tech, before getting the head coaching job at Cal, where he flopped (19-30 in four seasons). He got the job at SMU in December of 2017 and in his full season, went 5-7. However, last year's 10-2 regular season got the Mustangs to a bowl game but they were blown out 52-28 by FAU. The team opened 8-0 last season and has now opened 5-0 in 2020 (best B2B starts since the "Pony Express" days of 1983-84). The Bearcats didn't start until Sep 16 but won three consecutive Saturdays) over Austin Peay, Army and USF )not exactly a "murderers' row!"). Cincy had a bye week on Oct 10 but then pulled out of last week's road game at Tulsa two days prior to the scheduled Saturday contest due to an outbreak of COVID-19 cases in the program. QB Ridder is coming off two solid seasons, passing for 2,445 yards and 2,164 yards with 38 TDs and 14 INTs. He's completing 60.3% through three games in 2020 for 597 yards but with six TDs and four INTs (not great). RB Doaks is the team's leading rusher with just 145 yards (3.5 YPC) but has added six catches while averaging 21.7 YPC and grabbing two TDs. WRs Young (9 catches) and Jackson (8 catches) are the team's top pass-catchers. Cincy's defense has allowed 17.2 and 20.6 PPG the last two seasons and is allowing just 12.3 PPG through three games in 2020. Steve Buechele transferred from Texas and the QB threw for 3,929 yards and 34 scores last year (just 10 INTs). He's off to another excellent start this season, completing 67.2 percent for 1,710 yards with 12 TD and just two INTs. WRs Roberson (22 catches / 21.5 YPC / 3 TDs), Rice (24 catches / 17.1 YPC) and Gray (19 catches / 17.4 YPC / 4 TDs) plus TE Granson (17 catches / 2 TDs) give him plenty of targets. The SMU running game has averaged 204.0 YPG (5.1YPC), led by Bentley (506 yards / 6.8 YPC / 8 TDs). The SMU defense is allowing 25.4 PPG and shouldn't have too much trouble with a Cincinnati offense that has shown VERY little, so far. Yes, Luke Fickell's team has another excellent defensive team but SMU averages 42.6 PPG and will 'stretch' the Cincy D here at home, where SMU has won EIGHT in a row while averaging 45.0 PPG. The higher ranked team is an underdog in this one for a reason. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-24-20 | Michigan v. Minnesota +3.5 | Top | 49-24 | Loss | -115 | 102 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Big Ten Game of the Year is on Minnesota at 7:30 ET. The Big Ten returns to the playing field with all 14 teams in action. No. 14 Wisconsin starts things off with a home game against Illinois and SIX games follow on Saturday. The Big Ten is the oldest Division I collegiate athletic conference in the US and currently includes the flagship public university in each of 11 states stretching from New Jersey to Nebraska, as well as two additional public land-grant schools and a private university. It was established in 1895 when Purdue University president James H. Smart and representatives from the University of Chicago, University of Illinois, University of Michigan, University of Minnesota, Northwestern University, and University of Wisconsin gathered at Chicago's Palmer House Hotel to set policies aimed at regulating intercollegiate athletics. Two of that "original seven" (note: University of Chicago left the conference in 1946) meet Saturday in what is surely the most significant contest of the Big Ten's 'Week 1.' when No. 18 Michigan visits No. 21 Minnesota. Michigan's Jim Harbaugh was one of the league's most vocal head coaches in getting the Big Ten to return to play. Now, right out of the box, the Wolverines face a VERY tough first game in Minneapolis against the Golden Gophers. Last year's starting QB Shea Patterson had his critics but he did throw for 3,061 yards with 23 TDs and eight INTs. He graduated and Michigan's projected starter, junior Joe Milton, has thrown only 11 passes the last two seasons. Harbaugh wouldn't commit to Milton as his starter, contending redshirt freshman Cade McNamara is still in the running. The running game averaged just 150.7 YPC (on 4.0 YPC) last season, after averaging about 200 YPG the previous three. The team's top-two RBs return in Charbonnet (726 yards / 4.9 YPC / 11 TDs) and Haskins (622 yards / 5.1 YPC / 4 TDs), as do Michigan's top-two WRs, Bell (48 catches / 15.8 YPC / 1 TD) and Collins (37 catches / 19.7 YPC / 7 TDs). Harbaugh always features a strong defense but for the first time since arriving in Ann Arbor in back in 2015, his "D" allowed more than 20.0 PPG (20.7). While Michigan opens the season with an inexperienced QB, the Gophers have Tanner Morgan, who threw 30 TD passes last season (against only seven INTs) in leading the Golden Gophers to 11 wins (notably, for the first time since 1904), including a 31-24 Outback Bowl victory over Auburn as a seven-point underdog. Leading rusher Smith (1,163 yards / 5.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and record-setting WR Tyler Johnson (86 catches / 1,1318 yards / 13 TDs)) are both gone but RB Mohammad Ibrahim led the team in rushing as a freshman in 2018 with 1,160 yards on 5.7 YPC with nine TDs. He was injured for part of last season but still ran for 604 yards on 5.3 YPC and seven TDs. Minnesota fans will remember that as a freshman, he was the MVP of Minnesota's 34-10 Quick Lane Bowl win by rushing for 224 yards. Rashod Bateman, the team's second-leading receiver a year ago, also returns after catching 60 passes for 1,219 yards (20.3 YPC) and 11 TDs on 60 receptions. DON'T be concerned with Minnesota's offense, which averaged 31.4 PPG (3rd in the Big 10 and 21st nationally). The defense lost its top-three tacklers from a year ago but head coach PJ Fleck has a good feeling about how his defense is progressing Minnesota allowed 22.5 PPG in 2019). "There's going to be a lot of questions that come up every single week," Fleck said. "I'm excited about where our defense is headed. I think I have a good feeling about where we're at, but again you don't know until the lights come on and until these guys are actually playing games." PJ Fleck 'rowed the boat' at Western Michigan back in 2016, leading the Broncos to a 13-1 season. He used that as a 'launching pad' to get the Minnesota job and in his third season at the school, led the Gophers to an 11-win season (1st since 1904), including that impressive win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. He now gets this HUGE season-opening game with Harbaugh and Michigan, as the last time Minnesota was involved in a matchup of ranked teams to start a season was 1968. As for Harbaugh, I don't know how anyone can consider him anything but a HUGE disappointment in his return to his alma mater. He's 0-5 against Ohio State, losing 62-39 and 56-27 the last two seasons and is 1-7 SU on the road vs ranked opponents in his tenure at Michigan. I'm "all over" the home dog! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-24-20 | South Carolina v. LSU -6.5 | Top | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 123 h 49 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on LSU at 7:00 ET. LSU had a "season for the ages" in 2019, going 15-0 en route to winning the national championship. QB Joe Burrow was the runaway winner of the Heisman, as all he did was complete 76.3% for 5,671 yards with 60 TD passes and just INTs. He had an All-Star cast of receivers and Edwards-Helaire (1,441 rushing with 16 TDs plus 55 catches) just may have been the best RB in the nation (I believe the Chiefs may agree with that statement). Almost the entire group of starters were gone but LSU was still ranked No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll. Think the Tigers may have been 'seeded' too high. I'll have plenty to say about LSU in a bit.
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10-24-20 | Alabama v. Tennessee +21.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 40 m | Show |
My 9* "Big Dog" is on Tennessee at 3:30 ET. The Alabama–Tennessee football rivalry was always referred to as "The Third Saturday in October." The respective campuses are located approximately 310 miles apart and the game was traditionally played on "the third Saturday in October" each year, prior to the 1992 football season when the SEC split into its Eastern and Western divisions. Once upon a time, before Alabama hired Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide's fabled rivalry game with Tennessee saw the Volunteers dominate their SEC West crossover rival, winning 10 of 12 between 1995 and 2006. However, after Saban took the reins in Tuscaloosa before the 2007 season, it's been all Tide, all the time. Alabama is 13-0 against Tennessee since then, including last year's 35-13 win at home and 11 of those wins have been by double digits. Recent form suggests the second-ranked Tide should make it 14 straight when they visit Neyland Stadium in Knoxville on Saturday for the teams 103rd meeting. However, let's note that the Tide are three-TD favorites and for Alabama backers to win, they'll need a 21-point margin of victory (or more?), to collect the 'CA$H!'
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10-24-20 | Florida State v. Louisville -4 | Top | 16-48 | Win | 100 | 63 h 20 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Louisville at 12:00 ET. Mike Norvell was introduced as the 24th head football coach of the Memphis Tigers on Dec 4, 2015, making him the youngest FBS head coach in the nation at the time of his hiring (aged 34). Norvell had overseen one of the nation's most explosive offenses at Arizona State under Todd Graham. The Tigers would go 8-5, 10-3 and 8-6 his first three seasons and then in 2019, he delivered one of the best seasons in the program's history, as the Tigers went 11–1 in the regular season and then won the AAC championship game over Cincy. As the highest ranked Group of 5 team in the final CFP poll, they were awarded a New Years' 6 bowl berth to the Cotton Bowl against Penn State. However, Norvell didn't wait, accepting the head coaching job at Florida State the day after winning the AAC title game. FSU has seen a 'revolving door' of head coaches since Jimbo Fisher left and Norvell took over a team off back-to-back losing seasons Not much had gone right for the Seminoles in 2020, who opened 1-3 with that lone win coming over Jacksonville St. However, the Seminoles upset then-No. 5 North Carolina 31-28 last Saturday. FSU is on the road this Saturday to take on Louisville. Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had a six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinals were unranked in the AP's preseason poll but were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. Louisville allowed three TDs in that contest but the Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western Ky's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. That win saw Louisville rise to No. 18 in the AP poll but NOTHING has gone right since, as the Cardinals will enter on a FOUR-game slide. FSU has used three QBs so far but redshirt sophomore Jordan Travis had 204 passing yards and 96 rushing yards against Notre Dame in his first career start. FSU lost 42-26 but the Louisville transfer displayed playmaking skills. Travis then threw for 191 yards (on just eight completions) and one TD plus ran 16 times for a career-high 107 yards and two TDs in the upset of North Carolina, Florida State took a big early lead (up 31-7 at the half) but had to hold on for a 31-28 win. The Tar Heels had a chance for a tying FG late but a wide-open drop on what would have been a first down on a fourth down pass, ended the rally. Travis is completing just 54.0% of his passes but leads the team in rushing (342 yards / 5.8 YPC / 4 TDs). A trio of RBs contribute between 160 and 262 yards for a team averaging 183.4 YPG on the ground. However, the FSU defense is allowing 32.4 PPG. Louisville's season unraveled quickly after its win over Western Kentucky. The Cardinals lost 47-34 at home to then-No. 17 Miami, before playing three straight road games. Louisville was outplayed at then-No. 21 Pitt but lost just 23-20. An embarrassing 46-27 loss at Ga Tech followed but the team HAS to be encouraged by its 12-7 loss at then-No. 4 Notre Dame last Saturday. QB Cunningham is completing 62.2 percent for 1,118 yards with 10 TDs and five INTs, while adding three rushing TDs. RB Hawkins has 519 rushing yards (ranks 4th nationally) on 5.2 YPC with three TDs. WR Atwell is "a player," with 29 catches and four TDs. The Louisville defense really stepped up at Notre Dame, holding the Irish to 338 yards and 12 points (ND entered averaging 40.3 PPG). "There's a fine line from winning or losing," Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield said. "You have to do the little things correctly in order to give yourself a chance to win. You can go back to last year; how many were so close that we could've won or lost. This year we've been on the short end of those sticks." I'm sure QB Jordan Travis is motivated to face his old team but that motivation works BOTH ways. FSU is allowing 475 YPG and THREE of their four ACC foes have topped 500 yards. Meanwhile, Louisville is allowing only 379 YPG. The game will be Louisville's first at home since that 47-34 loss to then-No. 17 Miami back on Sep 19 and the "desperate for a win" Cardinals catch Florida St off its upset over North Carolina, snapping a seven-game regular season losing streak against top-10 opponents that had gone back to 2016. Louisville is the play. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +146 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 40 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* MLB Game of the Year is on the TB Rays at 8:08 ET. The 2020 World Series got underway Tuesday night and the Dodgers looked every bit the part of a team with MLB's best record in this COVID-shortened season with an 8-3 victory. Three-time Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw shrugged off his rocky playoff history to give up just ONE run on two hits over six innings with only one walk and eight strikeouts. He retired 13 consecutive batters until Tampa Bay's Kevin Kiermaier hit a solo HR in the fifth. In contrast, the Ray's Tyler Glasnow allowed three hits and SIX walks (three would eventually score) in 4.1 innings of work in which he allowed SIX runs (all earned). Cody Bellinger gave the Dodgers an early lead with a two-run HR (two days after his go-ahead HR in Game 7 of the NLCS) and Mookie Betts hit his first postseason HR for the Dodgers in the sixth to open a 7-1 advantage. Betts, Muncy and Taylor each had two hits. Tampa Bay had just six hits, while LA struck out 10 Rays as opposed to allowing just ONE walk. However, Game 2 told a very different tale, as Blake Snell took charge from the mound in the first four innings, while Brandon Lowe took charge at the plate. Lowe came in batting .083 (4-for-48) with one HR in his previous 13 postseason games but ended his slump in dramatic fashion. Lowe jump started the Rays' offense with a solo HR in the first inning off Tony Gonsolin, then hit a two-run shot in the fifth inning off Dustin May, as the Rays led 5-0 into the bottom of the 5th. Snell didn't allow a hit through four innings, while striking out two Dodgers in each of the first four innings. However, Snell's dreams of a no-hitter ended in the 5th. He walked Kiké Hernandez with two out and served up a two-run HR to Chris Taylor. A walk to Mookie Betts and a single by Corey Seager ended Snell's night. Four relievers held off the Dodgers, allowing two runs over 4.1 innings, as Tampa Bay evened the Series at one-all. The Rays had 10 hits, the first time they reached double digits since Game 3 of their ALDS against the New York Yankees, a single-digit-hit skid that had lasted 10 games. The Dodgers used SEVEN pitchers in the loss but the good news (for both pitching staffs) is that Thursday is an "off day." Game 3 is set for Friday and it features the best pitching matchup of the series. We could see a rematch of this Buehler/Morton showdown if the World Series is extended to a Game 7. However, that's getting ahead of ourselves. Here's the 'dope' on LA's Buehler. He made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. He only earned ONE win during the regular season (zero losses), as the Dodgers went 7-1 in his eight regular season starts, during which he was bothered in September by some finger issues. He ended the regular season with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (42-11 KW ratio) and an outstanding BAA of .178. However, his longest outing all season was just SIX innings. The Dodgers won both of his first two postseason starts but Buehler only finished FOUR innings in each outing. He squared off against Max Fried in Game 1 of the NLCS and allowed just one run in five innings but also surrendered five walks (LA lost 5-1, when the Braves scored FOUR times in the top of the 9th). He got a second chance against Fried and Atlanta in Game 6 and was excellent, pitching six scoreless innings with a 6-0 KW ratio, as the Dodgers sent the series to a Game 7 with a 3-1 victory. LA has won THREE of his four postseason starts with Buehler posting a 1.89 ERA. Charlie Morton takes the mound for Tampa Bay and the Rays couldn't be happier that it's him on the mound with the series tied at one-all. Morton's career began back in 2008 with Atlanta but he was with Pittsburgh from 2009-15. In two of those seasons, he was just AWFUL, going 2-12 with a 7.57 ERA in 2010 and 6-12 with a 3.72 ERA in 2014. The Pirates traded Morton to the Philadelphia Phillies but his 2016 season came to an abrupt end on April 23, when he suffered a hamstring injury running to first base in a game against the Milwaukee Brewers. He was placed on the disabled list the next day and on April 27 the Phillies announced Morton would miss the rest of the 2016 season with a torn hamstring. Then, on November 16, 2016, Morton signed a two-year, $14 million contract with the Houston Astros. One would have to ask why? He joined the Astros for the 2017 season with a career record of just 46-71 (.400). However, Morton turned his career around after signing with Houston, going 29-10 in 2017-18. That got him a two-year, $30 million deal with Tampa Bay and Morton went 16-6, 3.05 ERA in 2019 for the Rays. He made his second All Star team last year plus set career highs in wins (16), ERA (3.05), innings (194.2) and in strikeouts (240). He also led all major league pitchers in HRs/9 innings pitched, at 0.694. Morton was no 'great shakes' in 2020, going 2-2 with a 4.74 ERA in nine starts (team was 5-4). However, he's 3-0 in 2020's postseason, allowing 11 hits and two runs (one earned) over 15.2 innings for an 0.57 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 17-4 KW ratio. In fact, Morton has won all FIVE of his starts in the playoffs for Tampa Bay over the last two years while recording a minuscule 0.70 ERA. Morton pitched 5.2 scoreless innings in Tampa Bay's Game 7 win over Houston, an effort makes him 3-0 in Game 7 appearances, having beaten the Yankees as a starter in the 2017 ALCS and the Dodgers in relief in the 2017 World Series. In 14.2 career Game 7 innings, he's given up just one run and six hits. This is NOT a Game 7 but I'm "all over" Morton and the Rays in this Game 3. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-21-20 | Rays +140 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 140 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the TB Rays at 8:08 ET. The 2020 World Series got underway last night and the Dodgers looked every bit the part of the team with MLB's best record in this COVID-shortened season. Three-time Cy Young award winner Clayton Kershaw shrugged off his rocky playoff history to give up just ONE run on two hits over six innings with only one walk and eight strikeouts. He retired 13 consecutive batters until Tampa Bay's Kevin Kiermaier hit a solo HR in the fifth. In contrast, the Ray's Tyler Glasnow allowed three hits and SIX walks (three would eventually score) in 4.1 innings of work in which he allowed SIX runs (all earned). Cody Bellinger gave the Dodgers an early lead with a two-run HR (two days after his go-ahead HR in Game 7 of the NLCS) and Mookie Betts hit his first postseason HR for the Dodgers in the sixth to open a 7-1 advantage. Betts, Muncy and Taylor each had two hits. Tampa Bay had just six hits, while LA struck out 10 Rays as opposed to allowing just ONE walk. Tampa Bay turns to Blake Snell, who won a Cy Young of his own in 2018, in Game 2, while the Dodgers will hand the ball to Tony Gonsolin. Snell was 4-2 in the 2020 regular season with a 3.24 ERA over 11 starts (Rays were). In four starts during this postseason, Snell is 2-2 with a 3.20 ERA. He enters off an outing in Game 6 of the ALCS in which he gave up two runs on three hits with four walks in four-plus innings and was CLEARLY unhappy about being removed. The Houston Astros won that game 7-4 but the Rays rebounded to win Game 7. The choice of Gonsolin seems a little strange to me. However, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said after the World Series opener, "We just feel like we like him in this spot," Roberts referenced Gonsolin's recent bullpen experience, seemingly suggesting the 26-year old could be more of an opener Wednesday, pitching the first inning and perhaps a bit more if he is efficient. The Dodgers would turn it over to the bullpen from there. Alrighty then. Here's what I counter with. Yes, Gonsolin was 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA in nine games (eight starts / team was 5-3) during the regular season. However, in his two outings this postseason against Atlanta, he's allowed SEVEN earned runs in 6.1 innings for a 9.95 playoff ERA. Gonsolin just threw 41 pitches Sunday in a Game 7 (allowed two runs in two innings) in which the Dodgers won 4-3 to complete their comeback from being in an 0-3 'hole' against the Braves. Is it fair to say the Dodgers won, DESPITE Gonsolin's pitching? I think so and will back the resilient Rays here in Game 2. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-20-20 | Rays +162 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Game 1 Series Opener is on the TB Rays at 8:09 ET. Both LCS went the full seven games, although each followed a different path. The Rays owned the AL's best regular season record (40-20) and looked every bit the part of the AL's No, 1 seed when they opened a 3-0 lead over the Houston Astros in the ALCS. However, the Astros, who were able to make the expanded 2020 postseason field by finishing second in the AL West despite a 29-31 record, did NOT go easily. Houston had won 100-plus games in each of the previous three seasons and the core of that lineup was still around. Houston won Games 4 and 5 by identical scores of 4-3, before forcing a Game 7 with a 7-4 win in Game 6. Houston entered Game 7 looking to join the 2004 Boston Red Sox as the only teams to comeback from an 0-3 'hole' and win a seven-game series. However, the Rays took Game 7 by the score of 4-2 on the strength of Charlie Morton's pitching (5.2 scoreless innings), Randy Arozarena's two-run HR and a solo HR and sac fly from Mike Zunino. Arozarena was named ALCS MVPa and getting back to Morton, he improved to 3-0 in Game 7 appearances, having beaten the Yankees as a starter in the 2017 ALCS and the Dodgers in relief in the 2017 World Series. In 14.2 career Game 7 innings, he's given up just one run and six hits. The Dodgers owned MLB's best 60-game record this season (43-17) plus posted a plus-136 run differential that was 52 runs better than any other MLB team. It was 76 runs better than their NLCS opponent (Atlanta) but the Braves took a 3-1 series lead. LA fought back to win Game 5 (7-3) and Game 6 (3-1) setting up a winner-take-all Game 7 against Atlanta rookie Ian Anderson. Anderson made his MLB on August 26 and in six regular season starts, posted a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .172 BAA. He took the mound Sunday night having not allowed a SINGLE run in 15.2 postseason innings, with the Braves winning all three of his starts. As for LA, manager Dave Roberts didn't name a starter until late afternoon. It turned out to be Dustin May, who allowed one run in one inning. Gonsolin followed and allowed two runs in two innings but then Treinen, Graterol and Urias combined for six scoreless and HITLESS innings. Trailing 3-2 in the 6th, pinch-hitter Enrique Hernandez tied it with a solo HR and then Cody Bellinger hit a go-ahead HR in the seventh inning, which turned out to be the game-winner. Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager was named NLCS MVP with five HRs and 11 RBI in the seven games. So in the end, the team with the best record in the AL and the team with the best record in the NL, will meet in the 2020 World Series. Just the way it should be, right? That makes sense but I should note that it's only the FOURTH time in the wild-card era (since 1995)that the teams with the best record in each league will meet in the World Series. The Game 1 starters will be Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow and LA's Clayton Kershaw. The 6-foot-8 Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of the Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). However, he made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. Glasnow opened 0-0 (team was 1-2) over his first three starts of 2020 (5.56 ERA) but he allowed just two ERs or less in SIX of his last eight regular season starts (allowed three and four ERs in the other two), as the Rays won ALL eight of those starts. The Rays then won his first three starts of the 2020 postseason, extending that run of winning starts to 11 in a row. That streak ended in Game 4 of the ALCS when the Astros refused to get swept by winning 4-3. Glasnow allowed four ERs in six innings and takes the mound tonight 2-1 with a 4.66 ERA in four postseason starts (Rays are 3-1). He has struck out 25 in 19.1 innings but has served up six HRs. Kershaw needs little introduction. He's won three CY Young awards (2011, 2013 and 2014) and Kershaw went 6-2 with a 2.16 ERA in 10 starts in the 2020 regular season (Dodgers were 8-2 in those starts). He opened the current postseason winning his first two starts, allowing three ERs over 14 innings (1.93 ERA) with a 19-1 KW ratio. However, his past playoff woes were on full display in his most recent outing, Game 4 of the NLCS. That contest was tied 1-1 after five innings but after the Braves shut the Dodgers down in the 6th, they sent 11 batters to the plate and scored six runs in the bottom of the sixth-inning, chasing Kershaw and breaking the game wide-open. Kershaw never got an out in the 6th, leaving after allowing four runs in five innings. The 10-2 loss put the Dodgers in an 0-3 'hole' but as we all know, LA rallied with THREE straight wins. Kershaw's postseason history is a 'broken record.' He is just 11-12 with a 4.31 ERA in 35 career postseason appearances (28 starts) and in his two World Series appearances (2017 and 2018) he is 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA in five appearances (four starts). The Dodgers are 1-3 in those four starts, as Kershaw has allowed 21 hits and 16 ERs over 22.2 innings for a 6.35 ERA. I just couldn't be comfortable backing Kershaw and Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash has been masterful in 'working' his pitching staff. A Tampa Bay starter has only lasted six innings in just TWO of the Rays' 14 games. That said, Glasnow's two six-inning outings accounted for BOTH of them. I CAN'T resist taking this HUGE price with Glasnow against Kershaw. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +1.5 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET. The Dallas Cowboys opened NFL 2020 with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owned just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. As Dallas gets set to welcome the Arizona Cardinals to "Jerry's House" for a MNF game which wraps up Week 6, one could say truthfully, that the Cowboys sit atop the NFC East. However, a closer look reveals that the Cowboys have attained their "high perch" only because the other three teams in the division are a combined 3-14-1! Dallas is just 2-3 and more notably, 0-5 ATS (only the 'minor league' Jets are worse, going 0-6 SU & ATS!). The Arizona Cardinals visit Arlington at 3-2 but reside in one the NFL's toughest (meaning best) divisions. Seattle is atop the NFC West at 5-0, the Rams are 4-2 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 3-3. The Cards are led by former Heisman-winner Kyler Murray, who is completing 69.6% for 1,299 with eight TDs but also six INTs (QB rating of 90.9). Murray also makes plays "with his legs," rushing for 296 yards (on 7.2 YPC) with four TDs. Kenyon Drake is the team's top RB with 314 yards but averages only 3.7 YPC. With Murray's help, Arizona is rushing for 141.0 YPG, an excellent number. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald has 28 catches but he's no longer a playmaker, averaging just 6.8 YPC. DeAndre Hopkins is now 'the big dog' of the receiving corps, with 45 catches and three TDs. A greatly improved defense may be the biggest storyline in 2020 for Arizona, as the Cards ranked last in the NFL in 2019, allowing 402.0 YPG. However, the Cards have cut that figure to 346.6 YPG and more importantly, are allowing 20.4 PPG, after allowing 27.6 PPG in 2019. This game is when the Cowboys formally begin life without QB Dak Prescott, whose season is over after he sustained a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle during last Sunday's game against the NY Giants. Prescott had passed for an NFL-leading 1,856 yards and was the driving force in making the Cowboys No. 1 in total offense (488.0 YPG), while ranking third in scoring (32.6 PPG) through Week 5. Stepping in will be veteran Andy Dalton (more on him in a bit). Zeke has 364 yards rushing and five TDs but is averaging only 4.1 YPC. WR Amari Cooper has 39 catches but averages just 10.9 YPC and has just one TD reception. However, Dalton also has three more VERY good options. Rookie WR CeeDee Lamb has 29 catches (14.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and fellow WR Gallup has 17 catches (20.5 YPC ab]nd one TD). Then there is TE Schultz, who has 19 receptions (11.8 YPC / 2 TDs). Defense HAS been a big problem and why the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS. No "Doomsday Defense" these days, as the team is allowing 404.4 YPG (29th through Week 5), while allowing 36.0 PPG (32nd of 32 teams!). Murray has proven he can play at this level but the Arizona running game doesn't give him much cover. Take away Murray's 296 rushing yards on 7.2 YPC and Arizona RBs have contributed just 409 yards (that's 81.8 YPG) on 3.8 YPC. Making 'life' more difficult for the Cards here, is that they are playing on the road for the THIRD consecutive week. Getting back to Dalton, I expect him to "fit right in" with this talented offense. He was 9 of 12 for 111 yards in relief last week and I believe will THRIVE. He got a "bad rap" in Cincy. He took the Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first four seasons and had the team at 10-3 when his 2015 season ended due to an injury. Yes, Cincy lost in the wild card round in each of those five consecutive postseason appearances (Dalton was 0-4 with just one TD pass and six INTs) but c'mon. When he arrived in Cincy as a rookie in 2011, the franchise had missed the playoffs in 18 of the previous 20 seasons, winning for games or less in EIGHT of those seasons, including going 4-12 the year before he got there. Dalton turned things around to 9-7 as a rookie and then led the Bengals to 10-plus wins the next FOUR seasons. Is Dalton as talented as Prescott, no. However, don't be surprised if the Cowboys win seven or eight of their final 11 games with him starting. For tonight, Dallas wins impressively. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers +3.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 81 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the SF 49ers at 8:20 ET. The LA Rams went 13-3 and represented the NFC at the Super Bowl in the 2018 season (lost to the Pats) but it was the SF 49ers who went 13-3 last season and made the Super Bowl, only to lose to the Chiefs. The Rams used a two-game sweep over its California rival to capture the NFC West in 2018 and the 49ers "returned the favor" with a two-game sweep of the season series in 2019. The teams meet on SNF in Week 6 at Levi's Stadium with the Rams off to a 4-1 start, while the 49ers check in at just 2-3. Seattle sits atop the NFC West at 5-0 and even the Arizona Cards have 'thrown their hat in the ring,' by opening 3-2. LA's Jared Goff has started strong, completing 71.7% for 1,372 yards with eight TDs and three INTs (QB rating of 108.8). He has two talented WRs in Kupp (28 catches / 2 TDs) and Woods (23 catches / 2 TDs) plus TE Higbee has 15 catches and a team high three TD grabs. LA sure doesn't miss RB Gurley, as the team's two-headed RB tandem of Henderson (260 yards) and Brown (213 yards) has the Rams averaging 139.6 YPG on the ground (7th), well above the 93.7 YPG (26th) the team averaged last season. The LA defense is also improved , allowing 18.0 PPG, down from 22.8 PPG last season. The 49ers rode the excellent play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% for 3,978 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs / 102.0 QB rating), the NFC's best running game (144.1 YPG) and the NFC's stingiest defense (281.0 YPG) all the way to the Super Bowl. However, injuries have plagued them all season, on both sides of the ball. Garoppolo was completing 67.3% of his passes (4 TDs / 0 INTs) when he got hurt in Week 2. He returned last week but with the Miami Dolphins up 30-7 at halftime (Niners would lose 43-17), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan pulled him during the half (concerned for his health). RB Raheem Mostert also returned and while the 49ers were embarrassed at home by Miami, Mostert ran for 90 yards on 11 carries (he has 238 yards on 7.0 YPC on the season). TE Kittle has been back the last two games and while he had just four catches in the rout, he had 15 catches the previous week vs Philly. WR Bourne has 15 catches in playing all five games (15.1 YPC) but the 49ers need WR Samuel to return to his rookie form. Is this the week? The defense has had a drop-off (no Bosa is HUGE) but even after last week's debacle, check in allowing 22.8 PPG on 323.0 YPG (not terrible numbers, by any stretch). Here's the bottom line. With Seattle at 5-0 (is on a bye week) and the Rams at 4-1, the last-place 49ers would fall to 2-4 with a loss in this one, with the Rams moving to 5-1. After going 7-1 SU at home last season, the 49ers are 0-3 at home so far in 2020 and this marks their THIRD straight home game. Talk about a "must win," if San Francisco has ANY designs on making the playoffs this season. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-18-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -139 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Game 7 Decider is on the LA Dodgers at 8:15 ET. The Dodgers fell behind 0-2 in the NLCS but then came a 15-3 win in Game 3, spurred on by a record-setting 11-run 1st inning. However, the Dodgers went meekly 10-2 in Game 4 to fall in a 1-3 'hole.' LA's season was on the brink in Game 5 but Mookie Betts' third-inning, shoestring catch altered the momentum, and then Will Smith's sixth-inning three-run HR put LA up for good at 4-2. The Braves and Dodgers met in Game 6 Saturday night and it was a pitching rematch of Game 1, Fried vs Buehler. Fried opened his outing in Game 6 by getting Betts on a fly ball to center field but Seager hit a HR home run on a 0-1 curveball (note: he now has five HRs and 11 RBI, both records for a LCS in either league), while Turner crushed a sinker two pitches later for a second straight HR. After a walk to Max Muncy and a single from Will Smith, Cody Bellinger delivered a run-scoring single to center for a 3-0 advantage. The Braves had a prime scoring chance in the second inning, opening with singles from Travis d'Arnaud, Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson to load the bases. However, Buehler escaped the jam by striking out Austin Riley and Nick Markakis, before Cristian Pache grounded out. The Dodgers NEVER looked back after that. Buehler pitched SIX scoreless innings (6-0 KW ratio), before three LA relievers closed out the 3-1 victory. Most notably, Kenley Jansen recorded the final three outs of Saturday's win. He struck three batters (on 12 pitchers) in the 9th inning of Game 5 in a non-save situation but last night's effort represented his first save since the Dodgers' first postseason game 17 days ago! So here we are, getting set for a Game 7 in the NLCS, just like in the ALCS (Tampa Bay won that one, after blowing a 3-0 series lead). Jansen, who faced the bottom of the Braves' order, was helped by a sliding catch from Joc Pederson to open the inning, then got routine fly outs from Nick Markakis and Pablo Sandoval. Six pitches, three outs to force a Game 7. The Braves will start Ian Anderson, who made his MLB on August 26 and in six regular season starts, posted a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .172 BAA. He won his first two postseason starts, pitching 11.2 scoreless innings with a 17-3 KW ratio. In Game 2 of the NLCS, he allowed just ONE hit and no runs over four innings but struggled with his control and walked FIVE. He was removed after those four innings, with the Braves up 6-0. He'll take the mound tonight in this Game 7, having not allowed a SINGLE run in 15.2 postseason innings. However, the pressure will be great for a 22-year-old trying to help the Braves reach the World Series for the first time since 1999 (Anderson was born in 1998!). Dodgers manager Dave Roberts declined to name a starter for the series finale, although he did admit he would lean on Tony Gonsolin (LA's Game 2 starter) for bulk innings at some point. Roberts essentially threw all of his ingredients on the cutting board, saying that he would even check on the availability of Clayton Kershaw for Game 7. Please God, no! The Dodgers are trying to get to the World Series for the third time in the past four seasons, where they lost in 2017 to the Astros and in 2018 to the Red Sox. LA has won EIGHT straight NL West titles but the Dodgers have not won a World Series since 1988 (Gibson/Hershiser). I'll repeat what I wrote in my Game 6 analysis, as it applies here, as well. "Let's NOT forget that LA won EIGHT more games than Atlanta in the regular season plus owned a MLB-best plus-136 run differential, more than DOUBLE that of Atlanta's (plus-60). LA sends this to a Game 7 on Sunday!" Well here we are on Sunday and my bet says LA wins and moves on to the World Series to take on the Tampa Bays Rays, who had the AL's best record (just like LA had the NL's best record). A bonus for LA will be, the World Series will be played at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Tx, where the Dodgers have just spent the last seven days battling the Braves, I don't care which pitcher LA starts or brings in during the game but "PLEASE NO" Kershaw, unless LA explodes for another 11-run inning! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs +1.5 | Top | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Bucs at 4:25 ET. It's a 'Battle of the Bays' on Sunday from Raymond James Stadium, as well as a showdown between two of this era's greatest QBs, Rodgers and Brady. The Green Bay Packers are 4-0 (also 4-0 ATS) and come off a bye week to meet the 3-2 Tampa Bay Bucs, who struggled to finish off their drives in a 20-19 Thursday Week 5 loss at Chicago. Those surprising Bears are 4-1 and right behind the Packers in the NFC North, while Tampa Bay is in a three-way tie for first in the NFC South with New Orleans and Carolina. The Packers got good news this week, as their No. 1 WR Davante Adams will return for Sunday's game. Adams has sat out Green Bay's last two games with a hamstring injury, but had caught 17 passes for 192 yards with two TDs before sustaining his injury in a 42-21 rout of Detroit back on Sep 21. Adams has averaged 86 catches per season the last four years, while catching 40 TD passes. Getting Adams back is truly great news but with or without Adams, the Packers have had some start to the season. They are averaging a league-high 38.0 PPG, while ranking second in total offense (454.3 YPG), fourth in rushing (150.8 YPG) and fifth in passing (303.5 YPG). It's hard to argue against Brady being the G.O.A.T. but Rodgers is a special QB and in 2020 he's completed 70.5% for 1,214 yards with 13 TDs and not a single INT in 139 attempts. His QB rating of 128.4 is topped by only Russell Wilson's 129.8 RB Aaron Jones is having a terrific season, rushing for 374 yards (5.8 YPC) with four TDs, while catching 15 passes for two more TDs. Green Bay's defense has been pretty mediocre in allowing 25.3 PPG but when one's offense is averaging 38.0 PPG, it's good enough for the team to have an average margin of victory of 12.7 points (now wonder the Packers are 4-0 ATS). The Bucs signed Brady to a two-year, $50 million contract in fully guaranteed money, despite the fact that he turned 43 in August. I guess that's the going rate for a six-time Super Bowl-winning QB. The biggest post-game talk in Tampa Bay's loss in Chicago was that Brady appeared to forget the downs on his team's last unsuccessful series, Not sure if that was the case or not but things went awry for him and the offense well before then. The Bucs committed 11 penalties and its OL not only allowed Brady to be sacked three times but he was pressured on a "way too high" percentage of his 41 passes. The Buccaneers scored 10 points in the first quarter, and couldn't match that for the game's remainder. I mentioned the team's inability to finish off drives at the top and that's reinforced by Tampa Bay settling for four FGs, three from inside of 40 yards. Brady's completed 64.3 % of his passes for 1,375 yards with 12 TDs and four INTs and has looked better than he did in his last couple of regular seasons with the Pats. RB Ronald Jones may not be quite as good as Green Bay's Aaron, but he has 359 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) and 15 catches, as well. WR Mike Evans has become Brady's favorite target, catching 22 passes with five TDs. Fellow WR Miller has 15 catches and averages a team-best 16.7 YPC. TE Howard (11 catches with two TDs) is sidelined but Gronk has 10 of his 12 catches this season in the last three games. Tampa's defense is allowing just 2898.2 YPG (second-best in the NFL), which is just over 80 yards less than last season's 'stop unit.' The Bucs allowed 27.8 PPG last season but that's down to a more respectable 22.4 PPG allowed in this VERY high-scoring season. | |||||||
10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 73 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET. AFC North contests between the Browns and Steelers have always been heated given the teams' proximity and history but this first of two meetings here in 2020 draws extra meaning because the Browns have opened 4-1 for the first time since 1994 and the 4-0 Steelers are one of just FOUR unbeaten NFL teams. The QB matchup has more than a little intrigue as well, with some believing that Baker Mayfield (at 25) is blossoming into the franchise QB the Browns have been seeking for years. On the Pittsburgh side, the 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger has bounced back from elbow surgery a year ago to post a QB rating of 110.4 through four games, which would be teh highest for a career that began back in 2004 (note: Baker was NINE years old in 2004!). It's also a game between the NFL top rushing offense (Cleveland is averaging an NFL-best 188.4 YPG) going up against the NFL stingiest rush defense (Pittsburgh is allowing 64.0 YPG on the ground. The Cleveland defense is clearly the team's Achilles' heel, allowing 29.8 PPG, which is a TD and two-point conversion higher than what Pittsburgh allows (21.8 PPG). However, since losing in Week 1 by the score of 38-6 to the Ravens, the Cleveland offense has been terrific, averaging 37.5 PPG. The Browns have scored at least 30 points in each of their four straight wins, the first time they have reached that total in four straight games since 1968 (can you say Leroy Kelly and Bill Nelson?). Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). However, since that Week 1 loss, Mayfield has turned into more of a "game-manager." He's completing 61.2% for 976 yards with nine TDs and four INTs. Those certainly aren't eye-popping numbers but they represent the efficiency and dependability that had been missing from Cleveland's QB position for what seemed like an eternity. Whether it's Hunt (347 yards on 5.0 YPC with 3 TDs / 11 catches with three TDs) or Chubb (335 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). WRs OBJ (21 catches with three TDs) and Landry (21 catches but zero TDs) are quality targets but late Thursday afternoon it was announced that OBJ was sent home with an unexplained illness. Big Ben is completing 69.9% for 1,016 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT (see above for his QB rating). RB Snell filled in for a less-than-100 percent James Connor in Week 1 with 113 yards but Connor then topped 100 yards rushing in consecutive games (Weeks 2 and 3) for the first time since the first half of 2018 (224 yards on 5.6 YPC with two TDs). However, he did have just 44 rushing yards with one TD in last week's win. WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (21 catches / 3 TDs) and Diontae Johnson (15 catches / 1 TD) are part of a young and diverse pass-catching group that saw rookie which also features rookie Chase Claypool, who had a breakout game vs the Eagles last Sunday. The Notre Dame product caught SEVEN passes for 110 yards with three TDs plus added a rushing tD. He now has 13 catches on the season, averaging 20.1 YPC with four receiving TDs. I noted Pittsburgh's rush D at the top but will add here that the Steelers rank third in the league in total defense, allowing 301.5 PPG. I don't know the status of OBJ but Cleveland is also dealing with the following. Mayfield came out of last weekend's 32-23 win over Indianapolis with tender ribs and was limited in practice Wednesday, saying he was "sore ... but that is why we have the rest of the week until game day." In addition to Mayfield, safeties Ronnie Harrison (concussion) and Karl Joseph (hamstring) and receiver Jarvis Landry (hips/ribs) were out Wednesday, although head coach Kevin Stefanski said he expects Landry to return to practice this week. RB Kareem Hunt (thigh), who has been carrying the load with Nick Chubb hurt, was limited Wednesday. This matchup surely qualifies as a rivalry but it sure is a ONE-SIDED one. Here's the rub. The Steelers have dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 27-4-1 SU record (not much of an impost in this one!). Pittsburgh was a perfect 3-0 ATS in 2019 in home games inside the NFC North, while the Browns are a 'money-burning' 11-20 ATS in their last 31 games against their NFC foes. That includes a blowout loss at Baltimore in Week 1 and a win but non-cover at home vs the Bengals in Week 2. Lay the MORE than reasonable price! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-18-20 | Washington Football Team v. Giants OVER 42.5 | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -116 | 70 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* "Featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Was/NYG Over at 1:00 ET. The 0-5 New York Giants are one of just THREE remaining winless NFL teams as the 2020 season moves into Week 6. The other two are the New York Jets (the Giants co-tenants of MetLife Stadium) and the Atlanta Falcons, who fired coach Dan Quinn at the beginning of the week. While 0-5 is 0-5, it should be noted that while the Falcons and Jets are a combined 1-9 ATS, the Giants have gone 3-2. Three of the Giants' losses have come by single digits, including a 37-34 road setback last week in Dallas against the Cowboys. First-year head coach Joe Judge said he is encouraged by his team's progress. "That's all that really matters, to be honest with you, the progress that we're making right now," Judge said after his team's latest loss. "The record will come in time. Obviously, we're not happy about the losses, that's not what we do here. But I've seen a lot of progress on all fronts and all units. We have to keep making consistent progress to keep being a better team as the year goes." It's fair to say it's "put up or shut up" time for the Giants this Sunday, as 1-4 Washington visits East Rutherford, NJ. Washington fell behind the Eagles 17-0 at home in Week 1 but rallied to score the game's final 27 points in a 27-17 win over the defending NFC East champs. However, very little has gone right for the team since then, as Washington has lost FOUR in a row (0-3-1 ATS) since that Week 1 victory, allowing at each 30 points in each contest (average of 31.3 PPG). Washington has seen enough of QB Dwayne Haskins (61.0% for 939 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTS for a QB rating of 80.3), replacing him in favor of backup Kyle Allen in last Sunday's 30-10 loss to the Raiders. Allen completed 9 of 13 passes for 74 yards and rushed for a TD before he was injured on a scramble, which created an opportunity for Alex Smith to take the field for the first time since his gruesome leg injury in 2018. However, Washington is expected to turn back to Allen against the Giants after he reportedly was cleared by doctors to return. This would be his 15th career start, including 13 with the Carolina Panthers over the previous two seasons (he's 6-8 as an NFL starter). Allen can't expect much help from a running game that averages just 101.8 YPG on 3.5 YPC but RBs McKissic (17 catches) and Gibson (145 catches) have both done a nice job as receivers. Washington's lone WR of note is second-year player McLaurin, who has 29 catches, averaging 15.8 YPC. With Barkley out for the season, the Giants know all about the lack of a running game, as New York ranks dead-last in the NFL by averaging a pathetic 79.0 YPG on the ground (3.8 YPC). The Giants are sticking with second-year QB Daniel Jones, who showed flashes of potential in 2019. He ended the season having completed 61.9% for 3,027 yards with 24 TDs and just 12 INTs. He's completing 61.0% this year for 1,111 yards (that's on pace for 3,5000 yards on the season) but he has just two TD passes and five INTs. QB rating of 70.6 is down from his rookie season, when he posted an 87.7 rating. Second-year WR Slayton has 23 catches (15.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and TE Engram has 18 catches. A huge disappointment so far is Golden Tate, who has a modest 18 catches plus is averaging only 8.1 YPC (Tate had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons (2014-17). The Giants are third-to-last in the league in averaging only 282.4 YPG, while Washington is dead last with 263.0 YPG. So why go over? Neither team can run the ball and I expect both QBs to have solid games, maybe even their best games this season to-date. As has been widely reported, scoring has never been higher (since the 1970 merger) and linemakers have adjusted the over/under numbers up. However, as of Friday at 12 noon ET, this game has the lowest posted total of any Week 6 game. The Giants should 'smell' the chance for a "W" and I won't be even a little surprised if they are the FIFTH straight team to score 30-plus points on Washington, meaning we won't need too much help from Washington for this game to go over. That's the bet. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-20 | Astros v. Rays -115 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Game 7 Decider is on the TB Rays at 8:37 ET. Houston's Alex Bregman had several Astros teammates watch the ESPN documentary of the '04 Red Sox's improbable ALCS win over the NY Yankees, when Boston climbed out of an 0-3 'hole' to win FOUR straight. As Saturday dawns, the Astros are trying to create their own biopic. Houston won Game 5 (4-3) when Carlos Correa belted a walk-off HR with one out in the ninth inning. The Astros followed with a 7-4 win in Friday's Game 6 and have now joined those Red Sox as the only clubs in major league history to force a Game 7 after trailing a best-of-seven series by three games. Houston trailed 1-0 through four innings on Friday but a four-run 5th gave them a lead the team never relinquished. Houston extended its lead to 7-1 by the 7th inning and held on for the three-run victory. All eyes now turn to the starting pitchers for Game 7. Houston's Lance McCullers Jr. and Tampa Bay's Charlie Morton are former teammates, who squared off in Game 2. McCullers pitched a good game but was unable to overcome a throwing error by Jose Altuve in the first inning that led to a Manuel Margot three-run HR (all runs were unearned). He pitched seven innings and allowed just one more run, while striking out 11 without a walk. As for Morton, he pitched five scoreless innings. I had Morton in that game and will play him (and the Rays) again in Game 7 and here's why. Here's what I noted about McCullers in my Game 2 analysis. He has made 93 career regular season appearances (91 starts), going 33-25 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His 2020 numbers (over 11 starts) were pretty much in line with his career ones () but look at his away/home breakdown. McCullers made six home starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and .159 BAA but in five road starts, had a 7.33 ERA and .290 BAA. His first postseason start came against the A's and he allowed five ERs in four innings on eight hits (including three HRs) but got bailed out, as Houston scored 10 runs on 16 hits. Then came his Game 2 start. Sure, Altuve's error kept the first inning 'alive,' but McCullers didn't HAVE to give up a three-rub HR!!! Moron's solid effort in Game 2 makes him 2-0 this postseason, allowing two runs (one earned) over 10 innings for an 0,90 ERA (11-3 KW ratio). He's now 6-2 with a 3.16 ERA over 11 postseason appearances (10 starts). This is a neutral site but I want Morton over McCullers, whose stats AWAY from his home park are VERY worrisome. Kevin Cash has done a masterful job with the Rays all season and while Dusty Baker has produced very good results as both a player and manager in his MLB career, he's yet to win "the big ones" as a manager. Houston's 2-0 sweep over Minnesota hardly counts, as the Twins haven't even won a SINGLE postseason game in their last 18 tries. As for getting past the A's, was that a big deal? Oakland beat the Chicago White Sox 6-4 in its deciding Game 3 back on Oct 1, ending a NINE-game losing streak in winner-take-all postseason games, a major league record that dated to the 1973 World Series. The A's had also lost SIX straight playoff series since sweeping Minnesota in the 2006 ALDS. Does MLB history have room for a second team to overcome an 0-3 'hole?' My bet says N-O! The Lightning won this season's Stanley Cup and a win for the Rays here could make for a very special 2020 for the city of Tampa. BTW...I think Tampa fans are also counting on TB 12 to deliver a Super Bowl title, as well Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-20 | Georgia v. Alabama -6 | Top | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 88 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Alabama at 8:00 ET. IMPORTANT UPDATE: I posted this play BEFORE the news that Nick Saban tested positive for COVID-19. The line has dropped since the news and quite honestly, I like the play even more. Saban has prepared his team for a game like this and I expect there be to be a "Win one for the Gipper" mentality running through the veins of all Alabama players. As they say in golf, "Play Away!" Four of the nation's 10 college football conferences decided not to play fall football this season back in August, including the Big Ten and the Pac 12. While those conferences have reversed their decisions, none of those teams have yet to begin play (that changes very soon). The Big Ten and Pac 12 featured schools in the AP preseason top-25, so the fall out from that has been WAY fewer early season matchups between top25 opponents. In fact, there have been just 10 games played so far in 2020 in which top-25 opponents have squared off. The paucity of top-25 matchups continues this Saturday, with just ONE game featuring top-25 opponents. However, it's fair to say it's a "Big One," as No. 3 Georgia visits No. 2 Alabama Saturday night (8:00 ET on CBS) in Tuscaloosa. These two national powers haven't met in the regular season since 12105 and believe it or not, the last time the Bulldogs played in Tuscaloosa was 2007. That happened to be Nick Saban's first season with Alabama and Georgia won 26-23 in OT. Saban's first season didn't go very well, as Alabama ended the regular season with a 6–6 record, including a four-game losing streak, featuring a particularly humiliating loss at home to ULM-Monroe and a SIXTH straight loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide did defeat Colorado in the 2007 Independence Bowl 30–24, to end the year 7–6. Just in case you may be unaware, Saban's done pretty well since then. I don't have time to chronicle his entire record but will note that Saban's won FIVE national s]championships at Alabama since his first, back in 2009 (his third season at Tuscaloosa). Georgia knows all about competing for a national title in that same time frame but the Bulldogs have yet to capture a single title since winning the 1980 national championship led by a freshman Herschel Walker. Ohio State and Georgia were crowned national champions back in 1942 and Georgia claims it as so in its record books. In fairness, Georgia defeated UCLA in the Rose Bowl on January 1, 1943, as NINE ranking authorities listed in the NCAA record books placed the Bulldogs as No. 1. However, don't try to 'sell' that to Ohio St, which Ohio State was named No. 1 in the final AP Poll at the end of November and did not make a bowl appearance. Now to Saturday's game. The Bulldogs expected Wake Forest graduate transfer Janmie Newman to lead its offense in 2020 but he "opted out" before the start of the season due to COVID-19 concerns. Stepping in is junior Stetson Bennett, who had just 27 pass attempts in 2019 for the Bulldogs. He's completed 63.1% for 689 yards through three games, throwing five TDs, while NOT throwing an interception in 84 attempts. His "go-to" receiver is Jackson, who has 19 catches (15.8 YPC( and one TD. A trio of other WRs have combined for 19 catches as well, averaging only 10.2 YPC. The running game is averaging 172.0 YPG but only 3.8 YPC. White is the team's top RB and he's scored four TDs but has a modest 209 yards and averages just 3.9 YPC. Georgia owns an excellent defense, which helped them open 2-0 with a 37-10 win at Arkansas and a 27-6 home win over then-No. 7 Auburn. Georgia found itself down 21-17 to Tennessee at the half last Saturday but scored 27 points in the second half, while its defense allowed only 71 yards and four FDs after halftime. The Bulldogs held the Volunteers, who came in ranked 14th to minus-1 yard on 27 rushes. The Georgia defense ranks first nationally in rushing defense (38.3 YPG), second in total defense (236.7 YPG) and is tied for fifth in scoring defense (12.3 PPG) but will surely be tested by Alabama's offense Saturday night, as the Crimson Tide lead the nation with an average of 51.0 PPG (note: Alabama put up 723 yards last Saturday vs Ole Miss!). QB Mac Jones has seamlessly replaced Tua, completing 79.5% for 1,101 yards (that's 367 per) with eight TD passes and just one INT. He is the national leader in passing efficiency with a QB rating of 220.3. I took the "big points" (24.5 to be exact) last Saturday with Ole Miss against Alabama and easily cashed. Alabama led just 49-45 with under 3 1/2 minutes, before winning 63-48. I wrote in that game analysis that Alabama's running offense had struggled through its first two games, averaging only 110.0 YPG on 3.4 YPC. However, that all changed last Saturday, as Najee Harris rushed for 206 yards and a school-record five TDs. (he now has 10 TDs after just three games / he ran for 1,224 yards on 5.9 YPF with 13 TDs last season). WR Jeudy is now in the NFL but wideouts DeVonta Smith ( 68 catches / 14 TDs in 2019) and Jaylen Waddle are back. Smith leads with 27 catches and Waddle has 19, averaging 20.8 YPC. Then there is Mitchie, who has a more modest 11 catches but averages 27.1 YPC! There is no denying that Alabama's defense is not up to past standards (it's not even close!).The Alabama D had been 'soft' the first two games, allowing 386.0 YPG, compared to 294 YPG the previous seven seasons. It then got BLASTED last Saturday, as the Tide gave up a school record 643 yards to fast-paced Ole Miss. However, Georgia's offense is pedestrian compared to that of Ole Miss. In fact, Bennett was the Bulldogs' fourth choice at QB in the offseason. However, first Newman opted out of the season, USC transfer J.T. Daniels wasn't medically cleared for the opener and D'Wan Mathis lasted only 17 passes as the starter before Bennett got his shot. The record is clear, Saban is 21-0 against his former assistants, after besting Lane Kiffin last Saturday. 'Bama was laying more than three TDs against Ole Miss, so a 15 point win was NOT enough to "get the ca$h! Alabama has won the last FIVE meetings with Georgia, with current Georgia head coach Kirby Smith, who was an Alabama assistant under Saban from 2007 to 2015, going 0-2. In the first 'Titanic' matchup of the 2020 college football season, Saban moves to 22-0 against his former assistants, while Smart falls to 0-3 against his former boss and the margin will be "significantly" higher than the posted pointspread. Roll Tide! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -145 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Dodgers at 4:38 ET. The Dodgers' season was on the brink in Game 5 but Mookie Betts' third-inning, shoestring catch altered the momentum, and then Will Smith's sixth-inning three-run HR put LA up for good at 4-2. Let's also not forget SS Corey Seager, who homered twice (the 2nd coming in LA's three-run 7th) in the Dodgers' 7-3, season-saving victory over the Braves. Seager 'flies under the radar' in LA's star-packed lineup but he now has 10 RBI in this NLCS, the most in a LCS since Nelson Cruz (Texas) set the record with 13 in 2011. LA finally started to reach Atlanta pitching by scoring SEVEN runs in the final three innings of an 8-7 Game 2 loss. Then came a 15-3 win in Game 3 (record-setting 11-run 1st), before the Dodgers went meekly 10-2 in Game 4 to fall in a 1-3 'hole.' LA still trails Atlanta 3-2 and must win Saturday and Sunday to reach the World Series, but Friday's win has to give them a real shot of confidence. The Dodgers will NEED that confidence as Atlanta will send Max Fried to the mound in Game 6, with LA countering with Walker Buehler (a rematch of the Game 1 starters). Fried allowed just one run on four hits over six innings in Game 1, a contest not decided until the Braves broke open a one-all game with a four-run 9th. Fried delivered an outstanding regular season for an Atlanta pitching staff that was decimated by injuries. He made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .211 BAA, as the Braves won 10 of his 11 starts. He pitched seven scoreless innings in his Game 1 start vs Cincy, as the Braves won 1-0 in 13 innings. His Game 1 start vs Miami was not very good, as he allowed four ERs on six hits over just four innings but Atlanta's six-run 7th gave the Braves a 9-5 win. Add in Atlanta's 5-1 win in Game 1 of this series and the Braves enter this game 13-1 in his 14 starts here in 2020. Here's the 'dope' on LA's Buehler. He made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. He only earned ONE win during the regular season zero losses), as the Dodgers went 7-1 in his eight regular season starts, during which he was bothered in September by some finger issues. He ended the regular season with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (42-11 KW ratio) and an outstanding BAA of .178. However, his longest outing all season was just SIX innings. The Dodgers had won both of his postseason starts but Buehler only finished FOUR innings in each outing, before his Game 1 matchup with Fried. Buehler allowed just one run on three hits over five innings in that contest, although he walked FIVE batters. I've played on Fried MANY times this season (I had him over Buehler in Game 1 of this series) but I'll play the Dodgers in this one. The Braves have that great top of the lineup (Acuna, Freeman and Ozuna, two red-hot starters in Fried and Anderson plus a bullpen, that for the most part, has delivered this season. However, the pen allowed LA seven runs in the final three innings in Game 2, did little to 'stop the bleeding' in the Game 3 blowout and then there was last night. A.J. Minter delivered three scoreless innings, after which FIVE Atlanta relievers allowed SEVEN runs! As for LA, which has had bullpen woes, SIX relievers handled seven innings behind starter Dustin May allowed one run on four hits with a 7-1 KW ratio). Blake Treinen dominated over two innings to earn the victory, Brusdar Graterol rebounded after a rough outing in Game 4 to retire all three batters he faced, and Kenley Jansen appeared to exorcise his demons in the ninth, striking out the side to end the game on 12 pitches in a non-save situation. Do the Dodgers suddenly have late-inning options again? Let's NOT forget that LA won EIGHT more games than Atlanta in the regular season plus owned a MLB-best plus-136 run differential, more than DOUBLE that of Atlanta's (plus-60). LA sends this to a Game 7 on Sunday! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-20 | Texas A&M v. Mississippi State +7 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -115 | 84 h 50 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Miss St at 4:00 ET. Texas A&M opened its season with a highly-disappointing 17-12 home win over Vandy, a team which has since lost two more games, allowing 41 points in each. Next up was a trip to Alabama, where the Aggies fell 52-24 (Alabama QB Mac Jones passed for a career-high 435 yards and four TDs). A&M badly needed a win last Saturday at home vs No. 3 Florida (I had the Aggies!) and got it, upsetting the Gators 41-38. A&M's running game proved to be the difference as the Aggies totaled 205 rushing yards on the ground, led by Isaiah Spiller's 174 yards and two TDs on 27 carries. Senior QB Kellen Mond completed 25 of 35 passes for 338 yards and three TDs, as Texas A&M totaled 543 yards on offense. The Aggies are on the road this Saturday to Starkville, Ms for a game with Mississippi St. Mike Leach had some coaching debut with the Bulldogs back on Sep 26, opening with a 44-34 win at defending champion LSU. He brought his "Air Raid" offense to the SEC and QB Costello, a graduate transfer from Stanford, shredded the LSU pass D for an SEC record 623 yards passing. However, does the phrase "how the mighty have fallen" ring a bell? Since that season-opening win, Costello and the Bulldogs have lost at home to Arkansas (Razorbacks snapped a 20-game SEC losing streak with the win) and then lost 24-2 at Kentucky, a game in which Costello was benched. Mond is a quality QB, who enters completing 62.5% for 845 yards with seven TDs and just one INT. Spiller is a solid RB and has chipped in 316 yards, while averaging 6.9 YPC. TE Wyderman leads the team with 15 catches, while WR Chapman leads with three TD receptions among his 14 catches. However, the A&M defense has NOT looked very good (the Vandy game doesn't count!), allowing a combined 90 points on 946 yards against Alabama and Florida. Miss St has a non-existent running game, averaging only 38.1 YPG on 2.1 YPC. However, Leach has been winning games for decades with his "Air Raid" offense. Costello has just one TD and seven ITNs the last two games but this guy was a solid QB at Stanford. The LSU game will NEVER be repeated but I expect him to bounce back here. The Miss St defense has played the last two weeks, allowing just 275 yards to Arkansas and then ONLY 157 to Kentucky. A&M's win last week over No. 3 Florida was its first win over an AP top 5-ranked team in the three-year tenure of coach Jimbo Fisher. Texas A&M had previously gone 3-8 against AP ranked teams under Fisher. I 'smell' a let down and note that Miss St has beaten A&M handily in each of the Aggies last three visits to Davis Wade Stadium, 48-31 (-2.5), 35-28 (+ 10.5) and 28-13 (-1.5). Typical of Leach's teams in his eight seasons at Washington State was for them to play its best against the toughest competition but come up wanting against apparently lesser opponents. Upset alert! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-20 | Duke v. NC State -4 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 106 h 11 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on NC State at 3:30 ET. Football in the ACC is unlike basketball. Duke and North Carolina State are just 20 miles apart and play in the same conference but the schools have stopped meeting annually once the ACC expanded and went to a divisional format 15 years ago. They have played only THREE times since then (this will be the fourth meeting), with their last meeting coming back in 2013. David Cutcliffe arrived at Duke for the 2008 season (from Ole Miss) but the team had a losing record his first five seasons, although Duke did go 6-6 in 2012 but lost its bowl game to end 6-7. However, the Blue Devils would put together FIVE winnings season the next six years, going to a bowl game in all five winning seasons. Duke was just 5-7 last season but with three home games to open the 2020 season (MTSU, Elon and Charlotte). The Blue Devils were counting a 3-0 start to propel them to a winning season. So much for that, as COVID-19 has scrambled so many schools' schedules. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters returned on offense, so it was expected that NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) would significantly improve in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18). NC St knows all about how COVID-19 has impacted a team's schedule. The Wolfpack's original September schedule had them playing at Louisville and Troy, with home games against Miss St and Delaware. NONE of the schools are on NC St's 2020 schedule. Duke opened the 2020 season losing FOUR in a row, as its defense allowed 32.3 PPG. However, the Blue Devils finally broke into the win column by winning on the road at Syracuse 38-24 last Saturday. Duke showed some offense in the Syracuse game, as the Blue Devils had 645 total yards (third-highest total in program history) and made 36 FDs. The team ran for 363 yards, as Jackson (169 yards / 5.6 YPC) and Mataeo Durant (163 yards / 7.1 YPC and two TDs) became the first pair of Blue Devils ever to rush for more than 150 yards in the same game. However, Duke's junior QB Chase Brice has been inconsistent in 2020, completing only 53.9% of his passes with five TDs and eight INTs. As noted above, Duke's D is not much of a 'stop unit' and let's not put too much stock in the Blue Devils' win over Syracuse, which is just 1-3 with all three losses coming by double digits. NC State QB Devin Leary was still recovering from COVID-19 at the opening of the season and did not play in the Wolfpack's season-opening 45-42 win over Wake. NC St lost its second game of the season 45-24 at Va Tech, with Leary seeing his first action by going 12 of 16 for 165 yards with one TD and no INTs in relief. He started the following game at then-No. 24 Pittsburgh, leading the Wolfpack to a 30-29 upset win. He threw for 336 yards with four TD passes. He did not have a good game last Saturday in NC St's 38-21 win over UVa (as a TD underdog!), completing just 11 of 25 for 184 yards with two TDs and one INT. The 'star of the game' was NC St's defense, which forced four turnovers, had SIX sacks and held Virginia to just four conversions on 18 third down attempts. The Wolfpack converted those four Cavalier turnovers into 17 points and out rushed UVa by nearly 100 yards. This is NC State's first home game in just about a month (hosted Wake back on Sep 19). Leary enters this game with seven TDs and just one INT and the defense has 18 sacks on the season (after getting SIX last Saturday), while the team's veteran OL has not given up a sack in either of the last two games. Great spot for NC St to win and win "by a margin!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-20 | Ole Miss -1.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 21-33 | Loss | -108 | 60 h 28 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Ole Miss at 3:30 ET. It's a pair of 1-2 SEC teams meeting in Fayetteville on Saturday, as Ole Miss visits Arkansas. B0th schools have new head coaches this season, Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and Sam Pittman at Arkansas. Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Pittman joined new University of Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema's staff as assistant head coach/offensive line coach and stayed from 2013 through 2015 seasons. Pittman departed Arkansas after the 2015 season to become offensive line coach at the University of Georgia under new head coach Kirby Smart. He garnered a reputation as "one of the best recruiters and offensive line coaches in the SEC and helped Georgia win three consecutive SEC East titles from 2017–2019. He was promoted to associate head coach in 2019 but on December 8, 2019, Pittman was announced as the new head coach at Arkansas. The Ole Miss offense has thrived under Kiffin, averaging 41.7 PPG after three games. QB Matt Corral is completing 76.1 percent for 1,080 yards (he's topped 300 yards in all three games) with nine TDs and just one INT. His QB Rating of 210.7 ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency. WR Moore already has 31 catches but TE Yeboah is averaging 23.7 YPC and FOUR of his 15 receptions have gone for TDs. The running game offers a nice balance to Corral's passing, averaging 192.3 YPG, with Ealy (243 yards / 5.4 YPC / 4 TDs) and Connor (179 yards / 4.8 YPC / 4 TDs) both contributing. As for the defense, I'll say "no comment" and let these numbers speak for themselves. The defense that has given up 155 points and 641.3 YPG in three outings. Florida transfer Feleipe Franks has done a nice job for the Razorbacks, completing 64.9% for 730 yards with seven TDs and just two INTs. However, the Arkansas running game is non-existent, averaging 86.3 YPG on just 2.4 YPC and the team has yet to score a rushing TD through THREE games! RB Smith is the team's leading rusher (167 yards / 4.1 YPC) and also leads the team with 14 catches. However, WR Warren has 10 catches, averaging 22.3 YPC and has caught three TDs. Arkansas is 6-1 SU & ATS in the last seven meetings between these two schools but I really like what I've seen from Ole Miss. The Rebels couldn't keep up with the Gators in their first game (lost 51-35 but gained 613 yards!), then came from two TDs down in the third quarter at Kentucky to win 42-241 in OT the following Saturday. Ole Miss gave Alabama all it wanted last Saturday, trailing just 49-45 with under four minutes to go, before losing 63-48. The Razorbacks FINALLY broke its 20-game SEC losing streak with a 21-14 win at Miss St on Oct 3 and gave Auburn all it wanted in last Saturday's 30-28 road loss. A controversial ruling allowed the Tigers to get off a late field goal for their 30-28 victory over the Hogs and immediately became one of the hot topics of last weekend, with the consensus seeming to be that officials denied the Hogs what would have been their second victory. Pittman said he talked to John McDaid, SEC coordinator of football officials, and is "at peace" with the issue. "I don't really know what to say," he said at his weekly press conference. "I don't want to go into it, but I heard from the head of officials and I understand what happened now. So now we'll move forward on it." Pittman may be "at peace" with last Saturday's result but his team got robbed!' Bottom line is that Arkansas enter this game 1-21 SU in its last 22 SEC games and I want no part of them here (in basically a pick'em game) against an Ole Miss offense that leads the SEC in total offense (573 YPG), FDs (86), and passing yards per completion (16.31). Even more impressively, the offense has lost only ONE turnover on an interception, a conference low. The Rebels just put up 647 yards on the 'Bama defense and their 48 points were the most the Tide have given up vs an unranked team since 1936! As they like to say in Oxford, "Hotty Toddy!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-17-20 | Kentucky v. Tennessee -5.5 | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 27 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Tennessee at 12:00 ET. Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. Jeremy Pruitt was the DC at Florida St (2013) at Georgia (2014-15) and at Alabama (2016-17), before being hired as Tennessee's head coach in December of 2017. It capped a tumultuous coaching search that followed the firing of head coach Butch Jones and led to the replacement of AD John Currie by Hall of Fame coach Phillip Fulmer. Pruitt finished his first season with a 5–7 record, including 2–6 in SEC play. However, the Vols won their final five regular season games and then capped the year with a 23–22 comeback victory in the Gator Bowl against Indiana. Tennessee opened the 2020 ranked 25th in the AP's preseason poll and with a SIX-game winning streak. Old rivals Kentucky and Tennessee square off Saturday in Nashville at 12 noon ET. The Wildcats lost their season-opener at Auburn in a game MUCH closer than the 29-13 final. Kentucky seemingly scored a TD right before the half (was trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six" was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards. Kentucky then lost at home the following Saturday to Ole Miss, failing to hold a 14-point lead in the third quarter, eventually losing 42-41 in OT, on a missed extra-point. However, Kentucky defenders intercepted SIX passes and the Wildcats, despite picking up only 10 FDs, defeated visiting Mississippi State 24-2 for their first victory of the season last Saturday night in Lexington. Kentucky QB Terry Wilson is more of a runner (leading rusher with 221 yards on 4.6 YPC and three TDs) than a passer (61.3% for 463 yards with two TDs and one INT. The deep owns depth in the backfield and is averaging 212.3 YPG rushing (more on that in a bit). WR Josh Ali is the lone pass-catcher of note with 18 receptions but he's averaging just 11.6 YPC and does not have a receiving TD. Tennessee won a hard-fought game at South Carolina to open the season (31-27) and then beat Missouri 35-12, gaining 422 yards. That win extended the Vols' winning streak to EIGHT in row, tied with Notre Dame for the longest active among Power-5 schools. The Vols were in Athens, Ga last Saturday and led the then-No. 4 Bulldogs 21-17 at the half, before getting 'rolled' in the second half, as Georgia scored the game's final 27 points for a 44-21 win. Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano has completed 62.2% of his passes for 664 yards with four TDs and just one INT. His lone receiver of note is Josh Palmer, who has 14 catches (16.2 YPC) and has caught THREE of Guarantano's four TD throws, A pair of RBs share time, as Chandler has 187 yards (4.7 YPC) and Gray (170 yards (4.7 YPC). As the teams meet Saturday, here's the rub. Tennessee has dominated this series with a 33-2 SU and 26-9 ATS record the last 35 meetings. Tennessee is 11-2 ATS the last 13 meetings overall and Kentucky has lost 17 straight in Knoxville since winning there in 1984! What changes here? Let me return to Kentucky's running game averaging over 200 yards. The Wildcats ran for 408 yards (7.3 YPC) vs Ole Miss but in their other two games, vs Auburn and Miss St, they've run for an average of just 114.5 YPG on 3.2 YPC. Remember, Kentucky had just 10 FDs vs Miss St last Saturday, while gaining 157 total yards. NO way the Wildcats break their 17-game losing streak in Knoxville this Saturday and the bet says the Vols win "with room to spare!" Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-16-20 | Astros +124 v. Rays | Top | 7-4 | Win | 124 | 15 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Hou Astros at 6:07 ET. The Astros were able to avoid getting swept by the Rays by winning 4-3 in Game 4. Altuve hit a solo HR in the 1st and then doubled in a run in the second for Houston but Tampa Bay's Arozarena hit a two-run HR to tie it in the fourth, before George Springer's two-run HR put the Astros up 4-2 in the 5th. Zach Greinke got into trouble in the top of the sixth but Dusty Baker went with his 'gut' and decided to leave Greinke in and he delivered by getting out of the inning. Tampa Bay scored once in the 9th but left a runner stranded on third when the game ended. The two teams went with "bullpen" games for Thursday's Game 5, as neither start saw the third inning. George Springer crushed John Curtiss' first pitch over the fence in left field to give the Astros the lead in a game in which they never trailed. Brandon Lowe homered in the third to tie it for Tampa Bay but Houston went up 3-1 on a two-run double by Brantley. Solo shots by Tampa's Arozarena and Choi sent the game to the 9th tied at 3-all. Astros closer Pressley stranded the potential go-ahead run on second base in the top of the ninth, before Carlos Correa belted a walk-off HR with one out in the ninth inning. The game-ending blast came off Nick Anderson, who had entered a tie game in the bottom of the eighth and had retired all four batters he faced before Correa's blast. As we head to Game 6, here's the setting. The Rays have now lost two in a row but still lead the best-of-seven series 3-2. As for the Astros, they became just the fourth team out of 39 ever to trail a playoff series 3-0 and even force a Game 6. The 2004 Boston Red Sox (in the ALCS against the NYY), are the only team to win a series after losing the opening three games. The Astros attempt to keep their season alive with a third straight win Friday night, as the Game 6 starters are Houston left-hander Framber Valdez and Tampa Bay lefty Blake Snell. It's a rematch of Game 1, which the Rays won 2-1. Framber pitched six innings in that contest, allowing two runs on four hits and four walks, while striking out eight. Snell earned the win by allowing one run on six hits and two walks over five innings with just two Ks. Snell, the 2018 AL Cy Young Award winner, has opened each of Tampa Bay's three series, sandwiching a loss to the New York Yankees (5 IP / 4 ERs) with wins over Toronto and Houston (10.2 IP / 1 ER). He has allowed five runs on 13 hits with a 15-6 KW ratio over 15.2 innings for a 2.87 ERA. Valdez will also be making his fourth appearance of the 2020 postseason. He entered Game 1 in the 5th inning of Houston's wild card series with Minnesota, with the Astros down 1-0. He delivered FIVE scoreless innings (and just two hits) to earn a 4-1 win when the Astros broke open a 1-1 tie with a three-run ninth. Framber followed with a 5-2 win over Oakland, pitching seven innings two runs allowed on five hits), before his Game 1 loss to Snell and the Rays in Game 1 of this ALCS. The Rays looked like a "team of destiny" after winning a deciding Game 5 over the NYY and Cole and then taking a 3-0 lead in this series with Houston. However, after back-to-back 4-3 wins by the Astros, it's Houston, not Tampa Bay, that suddenly owns the positive "mojo" heading to Game 6. This is Snell's fifth season in the majors but I don't think he rates much of an edge at all over Framber (in his 3rd season), who has allowed just four ERs on 11 hits over 18 innings this postseason (2.00 ERA) with a 17-7 KW ratio. This Houston team has played 56 playoff games these last three-plus postseasons, winning EIGHT of 10 series. Can they come back and replicate what the Red Sox did to the Yankees in 2004 (see above)? That is NOT the question here, rather it is can they force a Game 7? That's my bet. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina v. UL-Lafayette -7 | Top | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* SBC Game of the Year is on UL Lafayette at 7:30 ET. Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell was named interim head coach when head coach Joe Moglia took a medical leave of absence in 2017. The school announced on January 5, 2018 that Moglia had been medically cleared to return to full-time coaching and would reassume the head coaching position. However, Chadwell was formally introduced as the third all-time head coach at Coastal Carolina on January 18, 2019. Caldwell led the Chanticleers' to a 5-7 season in 2019, with their most notable win coming 12-7 at Kansas. The Chanticleers opened the 2020 season by returning to Lawrence and easily defeating the Jayhawks 38-23 back on Sep 12. They have followed with two more wins and will visit Cajun Field at 3-0 to take on ULL, which is also 3-0 and ranked No. 21 in the latest AP poll. Billy Napier accepted the head coaching job of the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns back on Dec 15, 2017, giving him his first job as a head coach of a college football team. His first season resulted with the Rajin' Cajuns winning the SBC-West and making a Cure Bowl appearance (lost to Tulane to finish 7-7). ULL won the West again last season, gave Appalachian St all it wanted in the SBC championship game (lost 45-38) and then capped its season with a 27-17 bowl win over Miami-Ohio to finish 11-3. ULL opened the 2020 season by winning 31-14 at Iowa St as a two-TD underdog. That victory is arguably the biggest win in school history, as ULL beat a top-25 opponent on the road for the first time, having gone 0-26 against ranked foes away from home. ULL's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. ULL has since added two wins over Ga State (34-31) and Georgia Southern (20-18) but both games came right down to the wire. Red-shirt freshman Grayson McCall won the starting QB job for the Chanticleers and has been excellent. He's completing 66.7% for 728 yards with nine TDs and just one INT, while rushing for 139 yards (4.5 YPC) plus three more TDs. C.J. Marable ran for 1,095 yards (5.3 YPC) but has a modest 190 yards this season (4.0 YPC) with three TDs. However, the running game has been good, averaging 198.3 YPG on 4.6 YPC. WR Heiligh has 12 catches (18.3 YPC) with three TDs, TE Likely has seven catches (30.7 YPC!) and three TDs plus WR Brown has six catches (22.8 YPC) with one TD. I will comment on these numbers in just a bit. QB Levi Lewis has been solid for ULL (723 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs), backed by a decent running game averaging 168.7 YPG on 5.1 YPC. Mitchell is the best RB, with 210 yards on 8.8 YPC with two TDs. A trio of WRs include LeBlanc (12 catches / 16.2 YPC / 1 TD), Lacy (6 catches / 19.7 YPC / 1 TD) and Pauley (4 catches / 20.5 YPC). Getting back to the VERY good offensive numbers put up by Coastal Carolina this year, not that the Chanticleers have faced only Kansas (maybe the WORST Power-5 school in the nation), which is 0-3 and allowing 44.0 PPG. Campbell (Big South) is an FCS school is 0-4, allowing 47.0 PPG and Arkansas St is 1-2, allowing 40.0 PPG. I'm NOT all that concerned with ULL's "close calls" against Ga State and Georgia Southern. I'd rather remind all about its win at Iowa St, which is back in the top25 at No. 20, after wins at TCU, a home win over Oklahoma (1st since 1960) and a 31-15 home win over Texas Tech. ULL is 11-2 SU at home under Napier, with one loss coming 17-7 against Appalachian St (in 2019) and against Coastal Carolina a 30-28 in 2018. Rajin' Cajuns WILL remember and an impressive win here will put ULL in the discussion for a Group of 5 bowl bid. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | Top | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
My LCS 10* Game of the Year is on the LA Dodgers at 6:05 ET. The Braves and Dodgers opened their NLCS on Monday. The Braves led the majors in OPS (.832) and ranked second in team BA (.268), runs (348), HRs (103) and slugging (.483) during the regular season. Checking LA's numbers in those same categories reveals the Dodgers had an .821 OPS, a team BA of .256, scored 349 runs, hit 118 HRs and owned a slugging percentage of .430. However, LA's pitching numbers are dominant by comparison. LA owned a team ERA of 3.02 (Atlanta's was 4.41) with a 1.06 WHIP (Atlanta's was 1.36) and a BAA of .213 (Atlanta's was .247). LA owned a MLB-best 43-17 regular season record, while Atlanta was EIGHT games worse at 35-25. More LA dominance was revealed by LA's MLB-best plus-136 run differential, more than DOUBLE that of Atlanta's (plus-60). "Something had to give" in Game 1, as the Braves and Dodgers were both 5-0 this postseason and the pitching matchup featured Fried (Braves were 12-1 in his starts in 2020) vs Buehler (Dodgers were 9-1 in his starts). Game 1 entered the 9th tied at one-all when Austin Riley hit a solo shot to put the Braves up. An Acuna double, an Ozuna single and an Albies HR, all, like Riley's hit, coming after 0-2 counts, gave the Braves a 5-1 win. Game 2 was expected to see Ian Anderson go up against Clayton Kershaw. Anderson made his MLB on August 26 and in six regular season starts, posted a 1.95 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and .172 BAA. He'd won BOTH postseason starts, pitching 11.2 scoreless innings with a 17-3 KW ratio. However, Kershaw was scratched with back spasms. Gonsolin was an under-appreciated hurler for Dave Roberts' squad this season. However, the jury is still out on how he will fare in his first postseason appearance. Here's the answer. Anderson allowed just one hit and struck out five in four scoreless innings but his outing was cut short after he gave up five walks and threw 85 pitches. As for Gonsolin, he was fine through three innings but then allowed a two-run HR to Freddie Freeman in the 4th. He was chased in the 5th inning, when Atlanta added FOUR more runs (Gonsolin was charged with five ERs in 4.1 innings). The Braves extended the lead to 7-0 in the top of the 7th but Corey Seager hit a three-run HR in the bottom of the 7th. It was 8-3 entering the bottom of the 9th when the Dodgers scored FOUR times, before Cody Bellinger was left on third base when A.J. Pollock's groundout ended the rally. So here we are. MLB's most-dominant team this COVID-shortened season is now in an 0-2 'hole' against the Braves, who are a perfect 7-0 in the playoffs. Heading into the 7th inning of last night's game, Atlanta pitching had allowed just SIX runs (five came in Its 9-5 Game 1 win over Miami) through 64 innings, before FIVE relievers allowed SEVEN runs over the last three innings to the Dodgers in Game 2. The Game 3 starters will be Julio Urias for LA (Kershaw is still unavailable) and Kyle Wright for Atlanta. Urias made 18 appearances (15 starts) for LA back in 2016, going 5-2 with a 3.39 ERA. He then made just eight appearances (five starts) in 2017 and 2018 combined, before making 37 appearances (eight starts) last season, going 4-3 with a 2.49 ERA. He made 11 appearances (10 starts) this season, going 3-0 with a 3.27 ERA and a .220 BAA, as the Dodgers went just 5-5 in his starts. However, he's started twice in the postseason, a short three-inning stint in Game 1 of the wild card round against Milwaukee that LA won 4-2. He then pitched five innings and got the "W" in LA's 12-3 series-clinching Game 3 win over the Padres. In 2017 and 2018, Wright made 11 appearances (four starts) for the Braves, going 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA. He was hardly much better in 2020, making eight starts and going 2-4 with a 5.21 ERA and 1.55 WHIP (Braves managed to go 4-4 in his starts). However, he pitched SIX scoreless innings in Atlanta's Game 3 series-clinching 7-0 win over Miami (allowed three hits with seven Ks). Will the Braves just "keep winning?" I find it hard to believe the Dodgers' offense, which HAD to gain some confidence after last night's seven-run outburst the last three innings, WON'T be able to reach Wright, who is just NOT much of a pitcher, despite his effort vs Miami (see above). Meanwhile, the 24-year-old Urias had a solid season and in two postseason appearances in 2020, has allowed just one run (unearned at that) on four hits over eight innings with an 11-1 KW ratio. This price is typically outside of my 'range' but in the postseason, one HAS to be willing to 'lay a little extra juice' every once in a while. That time is RIGHT HERE! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-13-20 | Rays v. Astros +102 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Astros at 8:40 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays eked out a 2-1 win in Game 1 on Sunday night and then came back with a 4-2 in Game 2, late Monday afternoon. A two-out throwing error by Astros second baseman Jose Altuve brought Manny Margot to the plate with two on in the bottom of the first and he hit Lance McCullers second pitch over the fence in center to give Tampa Bay a 3-0 lead, one which the Rays never relinquished. Margot then made the "catch of the postseason" in the top of the second, when Houston's George Springer came up with two outs and runners on second and third. Springer hit a fly down the right field line that kept drifting into foul territory toward the wall but Margot made the grab as he hit the wall and then he went over it and fell face first to the concrete below, quickly getting up to hold up his glove, displaying that he made the catch. The Houston Astros are in desperate need of a win in Game 3, or this ALCS is all but over. Houston manager Dusty Baker insists his message to his team is simple. "I'm not going to have a message other than, 'Hey boys, we got to keep swinging it,'" Baker said Monday after Houston's 4-2 setback in Game 2. "That's all you can do. Talk is cheap. We just got to find some holes." More in a bit. The pitching matchup will be Ryan Yarbrough for Tampa Bay and Jose Urquidy for Houston. Yarbrough made 38 appearances in 2018 (just six starts) but put together a 16-6 season with a 3.91 ERA. In 2019, 14 of his 28 appearances were starts, as he went 11-6 with a 4.13 ERA. He was mainly a starter in 2020, as NINE of his 11 appearances were as a starter. He was 1-4 with a 3.56 ERA, as the Rays went 4-5 in his starts. Urquidy made nine appearances in 2019 (seven starts), going 2-1 with a 3.95 ERA. He made just five appearances in 2020 (all starts), going just 1-1 (team was 2-3) but posted a 2.73 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and .206 BAA. This will be Yarbrough's first career playoff start, while Urquidy has started twice this postseason. He was solid in Houston's 3-1 Game 2 win over Minnesota (4.1 IP / 2 hits / 1 ER) but allowed four HRs in 4.1 innings of a 9-7 Game 3 loss to Oakland. Tampa Bay is looking like a team of destiny and manager Kevin Cash has masterfully used his deep and talented bullpen. However, the main core of this Houston team has been together for the last FOUR seasons and I expect them to bounce back here. Dusty is right when he said his team has just "got to keep swinging it! The Astros left seven runners on base over the first four innings in Game 2 and for the series. have scored just three runs and left 21 runners on base. Meanwhile, the Rays are up 2-0, with a modest 10 hits (team BA of .169). For at least this contest, it's Houston's 'day!' Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-20 | Chargers +7.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Magic is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET. The 1-3 LA Chargers are in New Orleans for a MNF contest against the 2-2 Saints. The Chargers drafted Philip Rivers back in 2004 and he took over as the team's starting QB in 2006 and started EVERY game for the team over the last 14 seasons. However, the Chargers only made the playoffs in TWO of the previous 10 seasons. He left via free agency with the Chargers drafting Oregon QB Justin Herbert with the sixth pick of the 1st round in the 2020 draft as his eventual replacement. Tyrod Taylor started in Week 1, a game the Chargers won 16-13 at Cincinnati. However, a team doctor accidentally punctured one of the Taylor's lungs, while attempting to administer a shot to Tyrod Taylor's ribs. Taylor has been sidelined ever since and while the Chargers have lost three in a row, don't blame Herbert. He's completing 72.0% for 931 yards in his three starts, with five TDs, three INTs and a QB rating of 102.2 (more later). Herbert was just 6 years old when Drew Brees left his final game for the Chargers with a career-threatening shoulder injury. A decade-and-a-half later, they're set to be on opposite sidelines on MNF. Brees has broken about every passing record that matters since joining New Orleans in 2006. However, while Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. He enters this game completing 71.3% of his passes for 1,006 yards with eight TDs and two INTs for a 108.7 QB rating. The Chargers will NOT have RB Austin Ekeler for this game due to a hamstring injury and that's NOT good news. He's run for 248 yards (5.1 YPC) and has 17 catches. UCLA rookie Joshua Kelley gets the start and he's run for 174 yards, averaging only 3.3 YPC. Herbert does have excellent receivers, headlined by Keenan Allen, who has 32 catches (the last three seasons, Allen has had 102, 97 and 104 catches with six TDs receptions in each season). Mike Williams may be back for this one and that would be great news. He had 49 catches (20.4 YPC) last season and 43 catches with 10 TDs in 2018. TE Henry has 18 catches, adding to Herbert's 'weapons.' Speaking of WRs, the Saints are still listing Michael Thomas as questionable with a groin injury that has kept him out the last three games. Thomas caught 149 passes in 2019, an NFL record for the most in a single season. RB Alvin Kamara has been terrific, rushing for 236 yards with four TDs and grabbing a team-high 30 receptions for three TDs. Murray is an excellent backup, rushing for 184 yards with two TDs. Brees needs WRs Smith (14 catches / 2 TDs) and Sanders (14 catches / 2 TDs) to contribute more, if Thomas is not back. Comparing the defenses shows that while the Chargers are allowing 373.8 YPG to the Saints' 334.3 YPG, LA is holding opponents to 23.8 PPG, while New Orleans is allowing 30.8 PPG (that's a full TD difference!). Herbert passed for over 300 yards in his first two starts and while he had 290 last week, he completed 20 of 25 passes with three TDs and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 137.9. Yes, the Chargers have lost three straight but they took defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City to OT and only a dropped lateral on the final play deprived them of a golden opportunity to pull out a Week 3 win over Carolina. Last week, they led Brady and the Bucs 24-7, before losing 38-31. Meanwhile, the Saints fell behind 14-0 early at Detroit, before scoring TDs on FIVE consecutive drives. Those things happen when a team is playing the sad-sack Lions, who have lost 12 of their last 13 games, going 3-10 ATS. The Chargers will battle you all the way and are 2-0 ATS as a road dog already this season. Take the big points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-20 | Braves +135 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 135 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
My 9* Pitchers Showdown is on the Atl Braves at 8:08 ET. The Braves beat the Marlins 3-0 in Game 3 last Thursday, giving Atlanta a three-game sweep and its first trip to the NLCS since 2001. In the process, the Braves became just the SECOND team in MLB history to throw four shutouts in their first five playoff games, joining the 1905 New York Giants behind Hall of Famers Christy Mathewson and Joe McGinnity. The Braves have already pitched the most postseason shutouts in franchise history and are one shutout shy of tying the MLB record for most in a postseason set by the 2016 Indians over 15 games. Atlanta draws the LA Dodgers in the NLCS, who completed a three-game sweep of their own last Thursday with a 12-3 win over the Padres. Los Angeles advanced to its fourth NL Championship Series in five years and the team with MLB's best regular season record in 2020 (43-17), will be making their 14th NLCS appearance, matching the St Louis Cardinals for the most. The Braves led the majors in OPS (.832) and ranked second in team BA (.268), runs (348), HRs (103) and slugging (.483) during the regular season. Checking LA's numbers in those same categories reveals the Dodgers had an .821 OPS, a team BA of .256, scored 349 runs, hit 118 HRs and owned a slugging percentage of .430. However, LA's pitching numbers are dominant by comparison. LA owns a team ERA of 3.02 (Atlanta's is 4.41) with a 1.06 WHIP (Atlanta's is 1.36) and a BAA of .213 (Atlanta's is .247). LA owned a MLB-best 43-17 regular season record, while Atlanta was EIGHT games worse at 35-25. More LA dominance is revealed by LA's MLB-best plus-136 run differential, more than DOUBLE that of Atlanta's (plus-60). So why take Atlanta? I really believe Fried over Buehler gives them a starting pitcher edge plus the Dodgers are really concerned over closer Kenley Jansen's recent woes. Fried delivered an outstanding regular season for an Atlanta pitching staff that was decimated by injuries. He made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .211 BAA, as the Braves went 10-1 in his starts. He pitched seven scoreless innings in his Game 1 start (5-0 KW ratio) vs Cincy, as the Braves won 1-0 in 13 innings. However, his Game 1 start vs Miami was not very good, as he allowed four ERs on six hits over just four innings (4-0 KW ratio) but Atlanta's six-run 7th gave the Braves a 9-5 win. Bottom line is the Braves are 12-1 in his 2020 starts! Buehler made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. I realize the Dodgers went 7-1 in his eight regular season start, when he was bothered in September by some finger issues. He ended the regular season with a 3.44 ERA, 0.95 WHIP (42-11 KW ratio) and an outstanding BAA of .178. However he earned just ONE win, as his longest outing all season was just SIX innings. The Dodgers have won both of his postseason starts but Buehler has gone just FOUR innings in each outing. I'm backing Fried and the Braves at this price. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays -129 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the TB Rays at 4:07 ET. Michael Brosseau hit a dramatic home run off Aroldis Chapman with one out in the eighth inning, as the Tampa Bay Rays beat the New York Yankees 2-1 Friday night in the decisive Game 5 to reach the ALCS for the first time in 12 seasons. The Rays dominated the regular-season series with the Yankees 8-2 and were the AL's No. 1 seed and making the victory even more 'sweet' was that Tampa Bay's $29 million payroll (28th out of the 30 major league teams) was dwarfed by the Yankees, who had the third-largest payroll at $84 million. Waiting for the Rays were the Houston Astros, who followed three straight 100-win seasons by going just 29-31 during this year's COVID-shortened season but were able to get into an expanded 16-team playoff field by virtue of finishing second in the AL West. The Astros then swept AL Central champs Minnesota 2-0 in the wild card round and eliminated AL west champs Oakland 3-1 in an ALDS matchup. Game 1 of the ALCS was last night and the Rays won 2-1. The Rays took a 1-0 series lead on the back of two timely hits and a pair of critical double plays, the latter coming with the bases loaded and one out in the top of the eighth inning. Randy Arozarena his fourth HR of this postseason. and Mike Zunino plated the go-ahead run with a first-pitch single in the fifth inning. Blake Snell allowed a solo HR in the first inning but that was all he allowed in five innings. The Rays' bullpen then produced another exceptional effort, as four relievers combined for FOUR scoreless innings. Houston wasted a solid effort by Valdez (two runs in six innings with eight Ks), as the Astros left 10 men on base and went 2 of 8 with RISP. The Game 2 pitching matchup features Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. McCullers has made 93 career appearances (91 starts), going 33-25 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His 2020 numbers (over 11 starts) are pretty much in line with his career ones but look at his away/home breakdown. McCullers has made six home starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and .159 BAA but in five road starts, he owns a 7.33 ERA and .290 BAA. His lone postseason start against the A's he allowed five ERs in four innings on eight hits (including three HRs). He got bailed out though, as Houston scored 10 runs on 16 hits. Yes, this is again a neutral site, but his stats AWAY from his home park HAVE to be worrisome. Charlie Morton went 14-7 (2017) and 15-3 (2018) for Houston and then 16-6 for Tampa Bay last season, after signing as a free agent. His 2020 season has been a disappointment. He went 0-1 (0-2) in two July starts with an 8.00 ERA but the rest of his regular season may have gone better than most people think. The Rays won FIVE of his last seven starts, as he never allowed more than three ERs in any start (3.72 ERA). His lone postseason start was Game 3 vs the Yankees and he delivered a solid effort in Tampa Bay's 8-4 win. He allowed two runs (just one earned) over five innings with six Ks. Morton is no stranger to postseason pressure. He earned the win for the Astros in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series and is 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA in 10 all-time playoff appearances (nine starts). I 'love' Morton over McCullers (plus Tampa Bay's bullpen is ALWAYS ready!) and expect the Rays to go up 2-0. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-11-20 | Vikings +7.5 v. Seahawks | Top | 26-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Min Vikings at 8:15 ET. The Minnesota Vikings went 10-6 last season and as the NFC's No. 6 seed, played at New Orleans (No. 3 seed with a 13-3 record) and upset the Saints, 26-20 in OT. Seattle went 11-5 last season and captured the NFC's No. 5 seed and drew the NFC East champion Eagles, who they beat 17-9. Both teams then lost road games at San Francisco and Green Bay, respectively. These same two teams meet tonight in Seattle for SNF on NBC but their respective 2020 seasons have begun quite differently. The Vikings opened 0-3 before winning their first game of the season last Sunday 31-23 at Houston, which has opened 0-4. Meanwhile, Seattle has opened 4-0 SU and ATS. Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer has been known for his defense but this year's Vikings are allowing 31.3 PPG on 426.5 YPG. QB Kirk Cousins entered the current season off two excellent seasons, completing 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs (99.7 QB rating) in 2018 and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and six INTs (107.4 rating) last season. He played OK vs Green Bay in Week 1 (19 of 25 for 259 yards with two TDs and one INT / 118.6 QB rating) but that performance was dwarfed by Aaron Rodgers' 364 passing yards with four TDs in a 43-34 Green Bay win. Cousins struggled in Weeks 2 and 3 with FIVE interceptions but bounced back in the team's road win at Houston last Sunday, going 16 of 22 for 260 yards with one TD and zero INTs (127.1 rating). RB Dalvin Cook ran for just 113 yards in Minnesota's 0-2 SU and ATS start but for 311 yards (6.4 YPC) with three TDs in the Vikings' last two games (team is 2-0 ATS). Stefon Diggs has shuffled off to Buffalo but veteran Adam Thielen has 20 catches *(14.2 YPC) with four TDs and is loving the chance to mentor LSU rookie Jefferson, who has 15 catches, averaging 21.8 YPC. TE Rudolph, who has averaged 58 catches the last five years while catching 40 TDs, is off to a slow start (eight catches and one TD). 2020 has opened as "The Year of the QB" and it's hard to find anyone playing better than Seattle's Russell Wilson. He's completed 75.2% for 1,285 with 16 TDs and just two INTs (136.7 QB rating leads the NFL). He's tied Peyton Manning's record with 16 TD passes in the first four games and already has 16 completions of more than 20 yards and is averaging 9.4 YPA. RB Carson ran for just 21 yards in Week 1 but caught six passes with two going for TDs. The last three games, he's run for a solid 216 yards on 6.3 YPC. WRs Lockett (26 catches / 4 TDs) and Metcalf (16 catches / 25.2 YPC / 3 TDs) are a dynamic duo plus TE Olsen has 14 catches (one TD) and RB Carson 15 catches with three TDs. The issue has been Seattle's defense, which has allowed a league-high (meaning worst!) 476.8 YPG. The Seahawks have allowed 27.3 PPG, a figure which would likely be higher if their offense wasn't playing so well, which has kept opposing offenses off the field. Seattle has a bye next week and would love nothing more than to head into that week off at 5-0. However, the history books tell us Seattle has NEVER started a season 5-0. As for the Vikings, a closer look at their season reveals that despite the team's 1-3 start, there's some optimism lying beneath the surface. Minnesota has been at its best inside the red zone booth offensively and defensively. The offense is tied for eighth in the NFL in goal-to-go TD rate (87.5%) and fifth in inside-the-20 TD rate (76.9%). The defense is seventh in goal-to-go TD rate (58.3%) and second in inside-the-20 TD rate (41.2%). These teams are meeting for the FIFTH since 2015 (high number for non-division opponents), including last season in Seattle, when the Seahawks won 37-30 but were just a three-point favorite, Here, Minnesota gets a full TD and they'll get a break as CenturyLink Field (arguably the NFL's toughest home venue) will be silent outside of what gets piped through the stadium speaker system. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns +2.5 | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 117 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 5 Las Vegas Insider is on the Cle Browns at 4:25 ET. Cleveland owner Art Modell relocated the Browns to Baltimore as the Ravens in 1996 and the Browns' franchise was reactivated in 1999. It's hardly been smooth sailing, as entering the current season, Cleveland had produced just TWO winning seasons in the previous 21 years, with ONE postseason appearance (2002). Don't look now but after the team's 49-38 win at Dallas last Sunday, the Browns are 3-1 on the season. It marks the first time they've been 3-1 since the 2001 season. Cleveland welcomes the Indianapolis Colts to town on Sunday, who are also off to a 3-1 start. With Andrew Luck finally succumbing to his injuries, the Colts opened the current season with just ONE winning season in its previous five, so their start is almost as surprising as Cleveland's. BOTH teams lost their Week 1 contests, with each ripping off THREE straight wins since. The "big news' for Indy in the offseason was the FA signing of Philip Rivers to play QB. Rivers has been solid (72.7% for 984 yards with four TDs and three INTs / QB rating of 97.3) but his performance has been DWARFED by the OUTSTANDING early-season performances by so many starting QBs in 2020. Rivers has seen five players catch 10 or more passes (a sixth has nine receptions), with RB Hines leading the team with 16 receptions (he has averaged only 6.1 YPC) but WR Cox has been the most effective (11 catches / 17.6 YPC / 2 TDs). The running game hasn't helped much, averaging just 115.3 YPG on 3.5 YPC, as rookie Jonathan Taylor is underachieving so far (250 yards on 3.8 YPC). However, the Indy defense leads the league in both scoring and total yards, allowing 14.0 PPG on 236.3 YPG. The Cleveland defense is clearly the team's Achilles' heel, allowing 31.5 PPG on 402.3 YPG. However, since losing in Week by the score of 38-6 to the Ravens, the Cleveland offense has been terrific, averaging 39.3 PPG. Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looking promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). However, since that Week 1 loss, Mayfield has turned into a "game-manager," completing 51 of 76 pass attempts (67.1 percent) for 540 yards with six TDs and just one interception. While those certainly aren't eye-popping numbers, they represent the efficiency and dependability that had been missing from Cleveland's quarterback position for what seemed like an eternity. Cleveland's front office has invested heavily in its OL in recent years and those investments have paid immediate dividends in the pass-protection department. Mayfield has been sacked just six times through four games and hasn't been taken down more than twice in the same contest (note: He was sacked 40 times in 2019). The OL is also helping a 'deep. RB corps which currently leads the NFL in rushing (204.5 YPG / 5.9 YPC). Chubb (335 yards / 5.9 YPC / 4 TDs) and Hunt (275 yards / 5.5 YPC / 3 TDs) are a 'deadly duo' but when Chubb got hurt last week, D'Ernest Johnson (13 carries, 95 yards) stepped up and the running gamer NEVER missed a beat. WRs Beckham and Landry may not be getting force-fed the ball as they were last season but they're still capable of taking over games. Landry had five catches for 48 yards Sunday, while OBJ had a vintage performance against the Cowboys, He caught five passes for 81 yards (2 TDs) and ran for 73 yards, including a 50-yard TD run. This contest is Cleveland's ONLY home game in a four-week span (played at Dallas last Sunday and will play at Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in Weeks 6 and 7). I never thought I'd say this in 2020 but I'm starting to believe Cleveland has a team that could make the playoffs. One of the biggest reasons for Cleveland's collapse in 2019 was the ineptitude of head coach Freddie Kitchens. He never seemed to have a reliable game plan, he too often put his offense on the shoulders of second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield, and he forged a culture completely devoid of accountability. However, new head coach Kevin Stefanski has steered a steady ship since Week 1 against Baltimore. The Browns have been racking up points, in part because Stefanski has been putting them in position to do so. While the defense has given up a 'ton' of yards, the Browns lead the NFL with 10 takeaways, as well as leading the league in TO margin (plus-6). Not sure why Indy opened as the road favorite in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-11-20 | Panthers v. Falcons -1 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 1 m | Show |
My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET. The Panthers opened the season with back-to-back losses plus saw the team's MVP, RB Christian McCaffrey, go down with an injury during Week 2's loss. However, Teddy Bridgewater is showing promise as a long-term replacement for Cam Newton at QB, plus RB Mike Davis (in his 7th season) is flourishing as a short-term substitute for McCaffrey. The Panthers are 2-0 without McCaffrey and travel to Atlanta on Sunday to face the winless Falcons (0-4). Atlanta couldn't handle Russell Wilson in Week (no other team has either) but then blew HUGE leads in losing back-to-back games at Dallas and home to the Bears. The Falcons then lost this past Monday night 30-16 in Green Bay, as Rodgers ripped them for four TD passes.. Are the Panthers emerging as a surprise contender in the NFC South? A loss here would negate that theory. Bridgewater has completed 73.1% of his passes for 1,147 yards but has a modest four TD passes (also three INTs). He went 5-0 as a starter in New Orleans last season when Brees missed time and enters this game 18-8 as starting QB since 2015. mike Davis has done little in his first six NFL seasons but he's started the last two weeks, gaining 130 yards on 29 carries (4.5 YPC).Bridgewater has a trio of WRs that are not bad at all, with free agent pickup Robby Anderson's 28 catches being among the leaders through four weeks, plus Moore (18 catches / 16.0 YPC) and Samuel (14 catches) also contributing. The defense allowed 65 points in opening 0-2 but has allowed just 37 points in the team's back-to-back wins. Matt Ryan, who somehow earned the nickname "Matty Ice," despite winning NOTHING, can still throw the ball. He's passed for 1,246 yards through four games, with seven TDs and just two INTs. He's got plenty of receivers, including Julio Jones, who is one of the best when healthy. He missed the second half against Green Bay after aggravating a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the previous week against Chicago. He has 15 catches in 2 1/2 games and has a history of finding a way to play games after missing practice time because of injuries. Fellow WRs Ridley (21 catches / 16.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and Gage (19 catches) are excellent options, as is TE Hurst (13 catches / 2 TDs). Todd Gurley was a key FA pickup but so far has been average (254 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC) but does have four TDs. The defense is another story, ranking 31st (of 32 teams) in points allowed (34.5 per) and total yards (448.3 YPG). The Falcons won their last four games last season to save head coach Dan Quinn's job but after an 0-4 start in 2020, Quinn's job status is again the subject of weekly speculation. It could be "win or else" here for Quinn, considering the Falcons have owned this series over the past four seasons, going 7-1 SU & ATS. That includes 29-3 and 40-20 victories a year ago. Carolina is just 8-17 ATS (32%) against NFC South opponents its last 25. The line says WIN and COVER for Atlanta and that's my bet! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-11-20 | Jaguars v. Texans -5 | Top | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 51 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* AFC Game of the Month is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. The Houston Texans win the AFC South with a 10-16 record last season, the team's FOURTH division title in a five-year span. Houston would edge Buffalo 23-20 (OT) in the wild card round in 2019 and then went to KC, where it took a 24-0 lead over the Chiefs, before getting run over by Patrick Mahomes and Co. KC would score the game's next 41 points, on their way to a 51-31. I realize that Bill O'Brien was the team's head coach in each of the team's four division-winning seasons but NEVER warmed to him as a head coach. I was really surprised that following that loss to the Chiefs, the Texans appointed O'Brien to the role of general manager. Houston had gone the entire 2019 season with the position vacant. During the offseason, O'Brien traded DeAndre Hopkins (the team's best receiver) to the Arizona Cardinals, a move that was heavily criticized. Star defensive end J.J. Watt wouldn't address reports that he got into a verbal altercation with O'Brien in practice two weeks ago but he did say that he thought a team with Deshaun Watson at quarterback needed a change after the 0-4 start. O'Brien was fired by the Texans on October 5, 2020. Team owner Cal McNair then made Romeo Crennel the team's interim coach for the rest of this season. Crennel has been an assistant for O'Brien since 2014 and has coached both the Browns and the Chiefs in an NFL and college career spanning 50 years (more on him later). Visiting Houston on Sunday will be the 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars. QB Gardner Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles as a rookie last season and showed plenty of promise. He has opened his sophomore season completing 72.1 percent for 1,138 yards with eight TDs and four INTs (101.2 QB rating). The Jags have a shaky OL with Minshew being sacked 13 times. He also gets little help from his running game, which is averaging just 104.3 YPG. The team's best WR, DJ Chark (73 catches and 8 TDS as a rookie), returned in Week 4, after missing Week 3's game. He had EIGHT catches last Sunday, giving him 15 (in three games), averaging 13.6 YPC with three TDs (two came last week). WRs Cole (19 catches / 10.2 YPC / 2 TDs) and Shenault (16 catches / 11.9 YPC / one TD) are decent 'helpers.' The Jacksonville D is allowing 399.5 YPG and also 29.3 PPG (not good). Watson signed a HUGE extension before the season and the Texans didn't expect an 0-4 starts. Watson is completing 65.6% for 1,092 yards with six TDs and three INTs (solid but NOT what Houston needs). He's also added very little 'with his legs,' rushing for only 58 yards (3.4 YPC) without a TD. The overall running game is a mess, as David Johnson looked good in Week 1 (77 yards on 11 carries) but he's gained only 120 yards the last three games on 40 attempts (3.0 YPC). Houston misses Hopkins but Fuller (18 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs) is excellent plus veterans Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks have been excellent receivers in this league. TE Akins (14 catches with one TD), is MORE than adequate. The defense allows 393. YPG and 31.5 PPG. Do I need to add a comment? Getting back to Crennel, his head coaching record in the NFL is 'ugly.' He is 28-55 (.337) in five-plus seasons with the Browns and Chiefs but he's had an excellent history as an assistant, being part of coaching staffs that won FIVE Super Bowl titles. Parcells and Belichick may have had something to do with that. He's well-liked and while he is NOT the long-term solution for Houston, I say he's just perfect for this underachieving team, right now. Let me note that Houston may be 0-4 but the Texans opened the season with KC (4-0), Baltimore (3-1) and Pittsburgh (3-0). Of course, there's NO excuse for last week's loss to the previously winless Vikings. However, Minnesota was a playoff team in 2019. Anyway, I'm expecting a great effort from Houston and for the Jaguars to play the perfect foil. It seems like light years ago that the Jags led the Pats in New England in the AFC championship game in the mid-fourth quarter, before falling 24-20. However, that was actually the 2017 season, The Jags opened 3-1 in 2018 but then 'imploded,' going 2-10 the rest of the way. A 6-10 season followed in 2019 and the team's 1-3 start this season means the Jags are 9-23 since that 3-1 start in 2018, including 4-13 on the road. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-11-20 | Eagles v. Steelers OVER 44 | Top | 29-38 | Win | 100 | 49 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* "Featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Phi/Pit Over at 1:00 ET. Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers got an unexpected "bye week" last Sunday, with the Titans fighting a COVID-19 outbreak. That game's been rescheduled for Oct 25 and the 3-0 Steelers get set to welcome cross-state rival the Philadelphia Eagles to Heinz Field, as one of the NFL's SIX remaining unbeaten teams. The Eagles FINALLY got into the win column last Sunday night at San Francisco but at 1-2-1 sit atop the NFL's worst division, the NFC East (Dallas and Washington are 1-3 and the NY Giants are 0-4). I took the Eagles last Sunday night, as I'm not ready just yet to "give up" on Carson Wentz. He entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of his last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday with the lowest passer rating in the NFL among starting QBs (66.9) and has already thrown SEVEN interceptions. Philly has key injuries to WRs Jeffrey (out) and Jackson (questionable) but still has a terrific TE in Ertz (19 catches, to lead the team). WR Ward has stepped up with 18 catches and more importantly, RB Miles Sanders has returned to rush for 236 yards (4.6 YPC) and catch nine passes in the last three games (he missed Week 1 with an injury). He's an important cog, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). The Philly defense may lead the league in sacks (17) but it's allowing 26.8 PPG. Pittsburgh has 15 sacks (in just three games) and its defense is No. 2 in yards allowed (290.0 per) and ranks fifth in points allowed (19.3 per). The 38-year-old Roethlisberger is playing with a surgically repaired right elbow and "looking good!" He's completing 67.0% for 777 yards with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 105.2). RB Snell filled in for a less-than-100 percent James Connor in Week 1 with 113 yards but Connor has topped 100 yards rushing in consecutive games for the first time since the first half of 2018 (224 yards on 5.6 YPC with two TDs). WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (17 catches / 3 TDs) and Diontae Johnson (14 catches / 1 TD) are part of a young and diverse pass-catching group, which also features Claypool, who has just six catches but is averaging 25.2 YPC (one TD). You may find this hard to believe (I sure did) but if Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers will be 4-0 for the first time in 41 years! I don't think Big Ben and Co. will have much trouble at all with Philly's so-so defense and again, I'm NOT giving up on Wentz. He's scrambling more this season, gaining 102 yards on 16 carries in the past two games and has run for a TD in each of the past three weeks. You may have heard that NFL games have averaged a combined 51.3 through the first four weeks of a season, the highest since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. This total is well below the average for Week 5 games and I'm Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-10-20 | Alabama v. Ole Miss +24 | Top | 63-48 | Win | 100 | 54 h 59 m | Show |
My 9* "Big Dog" is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET. No. 2 Alabama travels to Oxford Mississippi to take on Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin, who was Nick Saban's offensive coordinator for three seasons at Alabama (2014-16) the Tide won three SEC championships and one national championship in that span but like with all situations involving Kiffin, all separations are at least a little controversial. Saban needs no introduction but here's a quick history of Kiffin. Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Kiffin's debut for Ole Miss saw his team gain 613 yards but allow 642 to Florida, as Gators QB Trask threw for 416 yards (6 TDs and 0 INTs). However, the Rebels fought back from a 28-14 deficit in the third quarter last Saturday at Kentucky, with Ole Miss winning 42-41 in OT. The adage is, Saban never loses against head coaches who worked for him. Saban ran his record to 4-0 against former assistant Jimbo Fisher in a 52-24 victory against Texas A&M last Saturday, making him 20-0 against former assistants. Alabama QB Mac Jones passed for a career-high 435 yards and four TDs against A&M and is completing 74.5% of his passes for 684 yards with six TDs and one INT. He leads the country in passing efficiency with a rating of 222.1. WR Smith leads the team with 14 catches and Washington is right behind him with 13, averaging 21.2 YPC and hauling in three TDs. Metchie has just seven catches but is averaging a WHOPPING 31.9 YPC with two TDs. What has been missing so far with Alabama's is its running game. It's just two games but Alabama has run for only 110.0 YPG on 3.4 YPC. In comparison, Alabama has averaged right about 210 YPG the last SEVEN seasons. The Alabama D has also been 'soft,' allowing 386.0 YPG, compared to 294 YPG the last seven seasons. Alabama's Jones has been excellent but so has Ole Miss QB Matt Corral, who has completed 76.7 percent of his passes for 715 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception (he ranks 3rd in passing efficiency with a rating of 211.9). Corral's top target is Moore (20 catches / 15.9 YPC / one TD) but TE Yeboah has been a real playmaker. He's caught eight passes with an average of 21.8 YPC and two TDs. Mingo also has eight receptions (16.0 YPC) and two TDs and Drummond has just two catches with BOTH going for TDs. The Rebels' running game is not all that great but Ole Miss is averaging about 40 YPG more than Alabama (154.5 YPG). The Ole Miss defense will NOT win this game (meaning cover) but the Ole Miss offense has the ability to stay within this generous pointspread. That's the play! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-10-20 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -2.5 | Top | 2-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Kentucky at 7:30 ET. Mike Leach is known for building potent offenses, directing passing-oriented teams in a spread offense system known as the "air raid" offense. He helped develop it with Hal Mumme when Mumme was head coach and Leach was offensive coordinator at Iowa Wesleyan, Valdosta State and Kentucky in the 1990s. Leach's offenses with Mumme, and later as a head coach himself, have broken numerous school and NCAA records. led Texas Tech to 10 straight bowls from 2000 through 2009 but was fired under controversial circumstances. Leach surfaced at Washington St in 2012 and after three losing seasons (two at 3-9), led teh Cougars to FIVE straight bow games. Leach agreed to be the head coach of the Mississippi State Bulldogs on January 9, 2020. Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. The 2018 season was a historic one for the Wildcats, as they snapped a 31-year losing streak to Florida, finishing 9-3, only the fourth time in school history that the Wildcats have won at least nine games. Kentucky then defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl on January, 1st, 2019 giving the Wildcats their first 10 win season since 1977, and only their third in school history. Stoops was named SEC Coach of the Year. The 2019 season was one of overcoming adversity. After a 2-3 start in which they lost all of their QBs to injury, Kentucky turned to WR Lynn Bowden Jr. to take over at QB. With a revamped offense, the Wildcats finished the regular Season 7-5 routing Louisville 45-13 on Senior Day. Kentucky then capped the season with a thrilling win over Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, as the Wildcats scored the winning TD with 15 seconds remaining for an 8-5 finish. Leach's debut for Miss St saw the Bulldogs upset defending champion LSU 44-34 on the road. C.J. Costello (a graduate transfer from Stanford) set a single-game SEC record with 623 passing yards (he threw 5 TDs). However, Miss St fell back to earth last Saturday, losing 21-14 at home to Arkansas (as a 16.5 favorite), which has lost 20 straight SEC games. Costello threw for 31 3 yards but had just one TD and three INTs. Costello has thrown 60 passes against LSU and 59 vs Arkansas, while the Miss St running game has produced a total of just 96 yards in those contests. Kentucky lost its season opener 29-13 at then-No. 8 Auburn, but the game was pretty close. The Wildcats seemingly scored a TD right before the half (were trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six) was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards. Kentucky was home last Saturday against Ole Miss and couldn't hold a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter, eventually losing 42-41 in OT, on a missed extra-point. QB Wilson threw for 239 yards vs Auburn but against Ole miss had just 151 passing yards, completing 14 of 18; However, he added 129 yards rushing with three TDs, as two Kentucky RBs topped 100 yards rushing as well. The Wildcats ran for 408 yards on 5.6 YPC. Not many teams lose when gaining over 400 yards on the ground. Running the ball effectively will keep Costello and Leach's "air raid" offense off the field and Kentucky sure doesn't want to open 0-3. Kentucky entered 2020 having gone 12-3 SU at home the previous two seasons. The fact that the home team is 5-0 SU & ATS in the last five meetings between these two schools works for Kentucky. As does the fact that Miss St had gone 0-6 ATS as a rod dog the last three seasons, before its shocking win at LSU. The pointspread says "close call but I'm saying W-I-P-E-O-U-T! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-10-20 | Oklahoma -2 v. Texas | Top | 53-45 | Win | 100 | 73 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on Oklahoma at 12:00 ET. Oklahoma & Texas meet in the Red River Showdown for the 116th time. Texas holds a 62-48-5 edge all-time but the Sooners have won 14 of the 21 meetings since 2000. However, the "vibe" is different in 2020 for MANY reasons. The Red River Showdown is one of the most unique games in college football. The are fans split down the 50-yard-line. The State Fair of Texas is bustling just outside the Cotton Bowl gates and the bus rides by the teams through the fairgrounds to the stadium are jam-packed with thousands of fans lining the streets either cheering or jeering. COIVID-19 has changed all that. "To pull into the fairgrounds without anybody there will be a little eerie," Sooners head coach Lincoln Riley said. "It'll be different, there's no doubt. And that's just 2020 right now, I guess." What also makes this great rivalry different in 2020 is that the Sooners come in 1-2 (0-2 Big 12) after being beaten 37-30 at home by Kansas State last week. Oklahoma lost in Ames for the first time since 1960 and has now dropped back-to-back regular-season games (lost 38-35 at home to Iowa St on Sep 26) for the first time since 1999. The Sooners were No. 3 in the AP poll two weeks ago but the loss to Iowa St dropped them out of the top-25 after spending 64 consecutive weeks inside the AP top-25. Texas also lost last Saturday 33-31 to TCU, when the Longhorns fumbled at the Horned Frogs goal line on a 1st and goal play with about four minutes to go. Texas (1-1 / 0-1 Big 12) remained in the rankings last Sunday, although the 'Horns dropped from No. 9 to No. 22. Last Saturday's results have Oklahoma and Texas meeting with NEITHER school in the top-20 for the 1st time since 1999! Oklahoma has a freshman QB in Spencer Rattler and he's completing 73.4% with 10 TDs and four INTs. CeeDee Lamb (62 catches / 21.4 YPC / 14 TDs) is now in the NFL but WRs Rambo (11 catches / 18.2 YPC / 4 TDs) and Mims (10 catches / 12.3 YPC / 2 TDs) are quality players plus RB Stogner has 11 catches (averaging 15.8 YPC) and fellow RB hall has eight receptions goo for three TDs. However, the running game is NOT up to usual standards, averaging only 122.7 YPG on 3.6 YPC. Oklahoma's erratic defensive play has hurt them in the past in the CFP and this year's unit has allowed 38 and 37 points in the team's back-to-back losses. Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has seemingly been around forever and in three games, has thrown 14 TDs passes against only two INTs while averaging 308.0 YPG passing. Unlike Rattler, Ehlinger has an excellent rushing game to balance the Texas offense, averaging 191.3 YPG on 5.5 YPC. He's also has a solid trio of WRs in Moore (11 catches / 18.2 YPC / 4 TDs), Schooler (10 catches / 12.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and Eagles, who may have just five receptions but he's averaging 22.2 YPC and three of his five catches have gone for TDs. However, very much like Oklahoma. the Texas defense has allowed 87 points in its last two games (really should have lost at Texas Tech two Saturdays ago) on 899 yards! One team's season will be 'in tatters' after this game and my bet says the Sooners just WON'T lose THREE in a row. No John Blake sighting this Saturday at the Cotton Bowl. For those who need a reminder, Blake served as the head coach for the Oklahoma Sooners from 1996 to 1998, compiling a career record of 12–22, which is the worst three-year stretch at the University of Oklahoma football history. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-10-20 | Florida v. Texas A&M +7 | Top | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 73 h 42 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Texas A&M at 12:00 ET. The Florida Gators will take a 2-0 record (both SEC wins) and their No. 4 ranking in the AP poll into College Station on Saturday to face No. 21 Texas A&M (1-1 start with both games also being conference contests). Florida QB Kyle Trask replaced an injured Feleipe Franks last season and went from obscurity to folk hero in Gainesville. He ended the season with 2,941 passing yards (25 TDs / 7 INTs), as the Gators finished 11-2 after a 36-28 Orange Bowl win over Virginia (final ranking of No. 6 in the AP poll). Jimbo Fisher completed his second season with Texas A&M in 2019, going 8-5, after going 9-4 in his first season (both seasons ended with bowl wins). 17 wins (including two bowl wins) over two seasons while playing in the SEC West is not bad but NOT what A&M is paying Fisher a 'ton' of money for. He's had two straight top-10 recruiting classes and the A&M fans and boosters want more. Florida passed for 213.5 YPG in 2018, while rushing for 213.2 YPG but last season, passed for 300.8 yards and ran for just 129.8. Head coach Dan Mullen loved the results (11-2 record) but was hoping for some more balance in 2020. However, Trask has been OUTSTANDING in two wins, completing 71.8% for 684 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT. 6-5 TE Pitts has 12 catches, averaging 18.9 YPC with six TDs. The running game has been somewhat pushed to the 'back-burner,' averaging a modest 138.0 YPG with only one rushing TD. The Florida D has looked pretty vulnerable, allowing 29.5 PPG on 471.0 YPG. Texas A&M was ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll but played an uninspiring season-opener at home on Sep 26, edging Vandy just 17-12. Up next was Alabama last Saturday and while A&M gained 450 yards and scored 24 points, the Aggies allowed 52 points 554 on yards, with Alabama QB Mac Jones throwing for a career high 435 yards and four TDs. A&M QB Kelly Mond did little against Vandy but played well against 'Bama's defense, throwing for 318 yards with three TDs. RB Spiller ran for 946 yards (5.4 YPC) with 10 TDs last season but while he's averaging 7.5 YPC through two games, he's gained a modest total of 142 yards rushing. A&M remained in the top-25 even after the loss to Alabama (at No. 21) but will have to win here, to stay ranked come Sunday. The Florida D is vulnerable and its pass D has just ONE interception, despite facing 80 pass attempts. Mond has the talent to match Trask. Fisher knows plenty about Florida as during his time at Florida St, he was 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS vs Florida. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-09-20 | Yankees -149 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -149 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Division Series Game of the Year is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET. The Tampa Bay Rays went an AL-Best 40-20 during the regular season and captured the AL East title for the first time since 2010. In the process, the Rays took EIGHT of 10 from the Yankees but I doubt anyone on Tampa Bay expected their ALDS with their hated rivals would be a 'walk in the park.' The Yankees won 9-3 ion Game 1, while the Rays rebounded to win Games 2 and 3, 7-5 and 8-4. However, the Yankees didn't flinch under the pressure of an elimination game, as Luke Voit and Gleyber Torres hit impressive HRs, while Jordan Montgomery and three relievers combined on a three-hitter. The Yankees beat the Rays 5-1 Thursday night to even the best-of-5 series at 2-all. The Yankees are trying to reach the ALCS for the THIRD time in four seasons following eliminations by the Astros at that stage in 2017 and last season. Meanwhile, the Rays are trying to advance to the ALCS for the first time since 2008, when they made it to their only World Series. Somewhat ironically, the pitching matchup of Gerrit Cole and Tyler Glasnow is a rematch of last year's ALDS Game 5 between Houston and Tampa Bay. Cole pitched eight innings of one-run ball for the Astros in a 5-1 victory. while Glasnow was allowed four runs early, getting pulled after getting just EIGHT outs! Cole allowed three ERs over six innings of Game 1 with eight Ks and was backed by four HRs as the Yankees won 9-3 in the series opener. Glasnow had 10Ks in just five innings of Game 2 but allowed four ERs. However, the Rays won 7-5. Then again, don't ignore the fact that Game 2 was the Rays' 10th straight win when Glasnow pitches. He won his FIFTH straight start and SEVENTH consecutive decision. I'm NOT sure why MLB decided to play the four Division Series WITHOUT a day off (Championship Series will be contested without any days off, as well), as it has taxed the pitching staffs of all teams and in particular any that are forced to "go the distance." That's the case here with the Rays and Yanks. Cole will pitch on three days' rest for the FIRST in his career, while Glasnow is being asked to pitch on TWO days' rest. Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract in December and a game like this is why the Yankees signed him. Cole was DOMINANT in the 2019 postseason (4-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts for Houston) and he's pitched Game 1 of New York's first two postseason series in 2020 and while his ERA of 3.46 is higher than expected, DON'T ignore that he's had 21 Ks against just two walks, while the Yankees have won 12-3 and 9-3. Glasnow made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros last season, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. In two postseason starts in 2020, the Rays have won both and Glasnow owns an 18-3 KW ratio but he's also allowed six ERs over 11 innings (4.91 ERA). With a shortened season, Cole has NOT been overworked and while I'm no fan of working on three days' rest, I'll give him the benefit of the doubt (plenty of other big time pitchers have come through in situations like this over the last decade). However, Glasnow pitching on two days' rest makes absolutely NO sense to me and makes me wonder just how "little faith" Tampa Bay manager Kevin Cash has in Blake Snell. Yankees win and set up a Houston/New York ALCS which should be a real "grudge match!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-08-20 | Bucs -3.5 v. Bears | Top | 19-20 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Thursday Night Game of the Month is on the TB Bucs at 8:20 ET. You may just have heard that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Tom Brady in the offseason hoping the six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback could help them end a 12-year playoff drought. The 43-year-old Brady saw his production dip in his 20th and final season in New England but was able to sign a two-year, fully guaranteed $50 million contract with the Bucs. He was 'off' in Tampa Bay's season-opening loss at New Orleans, as he had two badly-thrown INTs, one of which was returned for a TD in a 34-23 loss. However, he's led the Bucs to THREE straight wins since that defeat, completing 65.5% with nine TDs and just two INTs. The Bucs have averaged 32.3 PPG in their winning streak, with an average margin of victory of 13 points! The Bucs are in Chicago Thursday night for a game with the Bears, who opened the season 3-0, before struggling badly on offense in a 19-11 Week 4 loss at home to the Colts. The game wasn't as close as the final indicates, as the Bears trailed 19-3 before scoring a TD (and added a two-point conversion) with just 1:35 left in the game. Nick Foles replaced the obviously overrated Trubisky in Week 3 vs the Falcons, rallying the Bears from a 26-10 deficit to a 30-26 win. Foles threw three TD passes in the final 6 1/2 minutes of that contest but couldn't get the Bears into the end zone last Sunday until just under two minutes to go. In fairness, the Colts do own the NFL best defense early on in NFL 2020, allowing league-lows in points (14.0 per) and total yards (236.3 per). Brady lost his favorite target in 2020, as TE Howard was lost for the season in last week's game. However, stepping in at TE will be a familiar face to Brady, Rob Gronkowski. WR Evans has loved the acquisition of Brady, grabbing 17 receptions with five TDs. Also, Miller (15 catches / 16.7 YPC / 1 TD) and Godwin (11 catches / 13.0 YPC / 1 TD) also not exactly slouches. RB Jones is off a very good season and is rounding into form with 253 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) and 12 catches. Brady loves to use his RBs as receivers and Sean McCoy (nine catches) and Leonard Fournette (seven catches) are reaping the benefits. Foles played a Super Bowl for the ages when he led the Eagles to a 41-33 win against the Patriots (and Brady) in Super Bowl LII. He was the game's MVP completing 28-of-43 passes for 373 yards and three touchdowns plus caught a 1-yard TD pass on the “Philly Special" trick play that ranks as one of the most famous plays in NFL history. However, Foles has NEVER reached those heights again and will likely NEVER do so again. The Bears have a modest running game and it was all but completely shut down by the Colts, who held them to 28 rushing yards on 16 carries. Other than Allen Robinson (25 catches / 13.2 YPC / 2 TDs), the Bears have no receivers of note. Yes, the Bears opened 3-0 but those wins came over the Lions, Giants and Falcons, who have combined to go 1-11 SU. I doubt Brady is thinking "Super Bowl revenge" against Foles, but one never knows. What we do know is that when Brady overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 38-31 last week, he became the NFL's all-time regular-season victories leader (222), regardless of position. In the Bears, Brady will face a team that's never beaten him, as he's 5-0 with 1,595 passing yards, 14 TD passes and just four interceptions against Chicago. All in all, the Bucs seem like a strong play as a small road favorite in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-08-20 | Rays v. Yankees -125 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout (Part 4) is on the NY Yankees at 7:10 ET. The NY Yankees became the first team in American League history to hit a grand slam in back-to-back playoff games in Game 1 (9-3 New York win), while setting a franchise record by hitting at least three HRs in three consecutive postseason games. Giancarlo Stanton hit two HRs in Game 2 giving him five HRs in his team's first four playoff games (tying an MLB record held by Juan Gonzalez of the Rangers, in1996) but the Rays hit four HRs in Game 2 plus more importantly, four Rays pitchers struck out 18 Yankees, an MLB postseason record for a nine-inning game and a postseason record for Yankees batters. That allowed Tampa Bay to win 7-5 and even the series at one-all. Giancarlo Stanton hit a two-run HR in the eighth inning of Game 3 to become the first player with a HR in each of his team's first five games of a single postseason (has six HRs and 13 RBI in those five games) but it wasn't enough, The Rays' Randy Arozarena homered for the THIRD straight game on Wednesday, while Kevin Kiermaier and Michael Perez also went deep for the Rays, who beat Yankees 8-4 to move within one victory of reaching the ALCS for the first time in 12 years. | |||||||
10-07-20 | Rays +114 v. Yankees | Top | 8-4 | Win | 114 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Rout (Part 3) is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET. The NY Yankees became the first team in American League history to hit a grand slam in back-to-back playoff games in Game 1, while setting a franchise record by hitting at least three HRs in three consecutive postseason games. Giancarlo Stanton hit two HRs in Game 2 and has now hit five HRs this postseason, tying an MLB record held by Juan Gonzalez (Rangers, 1996) for HRs by a player in his team's first four playoff games. However, the Rays hit four HRs in Game 2 and more importantly, four Rays pitchers struck out 18 Yankees, an MLB postseason record for a nine-inning game and a postseason record for Yankees batters. Starter Tyler Glasnow allowed three hits and four runs in five-plus innings, while walking three. His 10 strikeouts surpass the previous Rays postseason record of nine done three times. It was the Rays' 10th straight win when Glasnow started. He won his FIFTH straight start and SEVENTH consecutive decision. It's now Game 3 of the best-of-five series with the teams tied at one game apiece. The Rays will 'play the road team' in this one and send Charlie Morton (2-2, 4.74 ERA in the regular season) to the mound, while the Yankees counter with Masahiro Tanaka (3-3, 3.56 ERA). Morton went 14-7 (2017) and 15-3 (2018) for Houston and then 16-6 for Tampa Bay last season, after signing as a free agent. His 2020 season has been a disappointment. He went 0-1 (0-2) in two July starts with an 8.00 ERA but the rest of his regular season may have gone better than most people think. The Rays won FIVE of his last seven starts, never allowing more than three ERs in any start (3.72 ERA). Morton is 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA in 10 career starts vs the Yankees and this will be his first postseason start of 2020 (last start was Sep 24 vs Philly). However, he is no stranger to postseason pressure. He earned the win for the Astros in Game 7 of the 2017 World Series and is 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA in nine all-time playoff appearances (eight starts). This is Tanaka's SEVENTH season with New York. He was 75-43 (.636) his first six seasons (3.75 ERA and 1,13 WHIP). Season 7 has not measured up. He made 10 regular season starts, going 3-3 with 3.56 ERA (1.17 WHIP) as the Yanks were just 5-5. He started Game 2 of the Yankees wild card series with Cleveland and lasted only four innings, allowing five hits, three walks and six ERs (Yanks won anyway, 10-9!). Tanaka has an 11-5 career mark and 3.31 ERA in 21 starts versus the Rays. He also is no stranger to the postseason, making nine starts with a 5-3 record and 2.70 ERA. Not sure what NYY manager Bob Boone was doing with Garcia in Game 1. He became the youngest starter in NYY postseason history at 21 years old, 140 days and threw 27 pitches (16 strikes) and allowed one hit, a solo shot but was pulled after ONE inning. Say what? TB manager Kevin Cash has one of MLB's best and deepest bullpens (3.37 bullpen ERA led all AL teams this regular season. I favor Morton over Tanaka but 'LOVE' the Rays bullpen over the Yankees. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-20 | Lakers -7 v. Heat | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Game of the Month is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Miami Heat reached this year's NBA Finals as the East's No. 5 to face the LA Lakers, the West's No. 1 seed. Miami is the first team seeded fifth or lower to reach the NBA Finals since the eighth-seeded New York Knicks lost to San Antonio in 1999. The last team seeded fifth or lower to win an NBA title was Houston in 1995, when it beat Orlando as the West's No. 6 seed. Miami used a 13-0 run to take a 23-10 lead midway through the opening period of Game 1 but it was ALL Lakers after that. Anthony Davis scored 34 points and added nine rebounds, while LBJ had 25 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists, as the Lakers cruised to a 116-98 win. The Lakers outrebounded Miami 54-36, led by as many as 32 points and made 15 three-pointers. Adding insult to injury, Miami PG Goran Dragic left in the second quarter with a torn plantar fascia in his left foot and PF/C Bam Adebayo left in the third quarter with a shoulder strain. LBJ scored 33 points with nine rebounds and nine assists in Game 2, while Davis made 14 of his first 15 shots on the way to 32 points, as the Lakers beat the short-handed Miami Heat 124-114 (no Dragic and Adebayo). James and Davis were the first Lakers duo to score at least 32 points in a finals game since Game 3 against New Jersey in 2002, when Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant did it. However, the Heat (still without Dragic and Adebayo) "came up big" and beat the Lakers 115-104 in Game 3. Miami's starters outscored the Lakers' starting five 89-51 and Jimmy Butler played "the game of his life," with 40 points, 11 rebounds and 13 assists. Butler became the 21st player to have a triple-double in the NBA Finals but it was just the third 40-point triple-double in Finals history. Now, it's time for Game 4 on Tuesday. Do we have a series? The Heat come in with a renewed sense of confidence as they look to even the best-of-seven series. "We're going to win," Heat swingman Jimmy Butler said of Game 4. "We're going to compete. We're not going to lay down; we're going to fight back in this thing and even it up 2-2." Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra said of his star's big performance after Game 3, "How else do you say it other than Jimmy effing Butler," "This was a very urgent game, and he was doing it on both ends of the court. Just put his imprint on every important part of the game." Alrighty then! Meet Jimmy Butler, the incarnation of MJ. A quick reality check of his playoff history, pre-2020. He had appeared in SEVEN postseasons (for three different teams, Bulls, T-wolves and Sixers) with those teams winning THREE of 10 series, going 24-34 (.414). LBJ played a typical game in Sunday's loss (25-10-8), as he's averaging 27.7-10.7-9.0 through three games. However, the Lakers committed 10 turnovers in the first quarter alone in Game 3, one more than they had total in Game 2. They finished the contest with 20, James being responsible for eight and Anthony Davis five. Davis, after scoring 34 and 32 points in the first two games, took just NINE shots and finished with only 15 points. LA's other three starters (Howard, Green and Caldwell-Pope), combined for a pathetic11 points on 3-0f-13 shooting (23.1%). LA's complementary players have been an on-and-off situation all season but let me note that the Lakers haven't dropped back-to-back games all postseason. My bet says they don't start here vs a 'wounded' Heat team, even though Miami features "the INCOMPARABLE" Jimmy Butler. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-20 | Yankees v. Rays -116 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
My 9* Rivalry Rout (Part 2) is on the TB Rays at 8:10 ET. Game 1 of the ALDS between the Yankees and Rays was expected to be a pitchers duel between Cole and Snell. That wasn't the case. Cole was solid but hardly spectacular (6 IP/ 3 ERs / 8 Ks) and Snell had a less-than-impressive outing ( 5 IP / six hits, including 3 HRs / 4 ERs). It was 4-3 Yanks into the 9th when New York broke the game open on the strength of Stanton's grand slam. The Yanks would score FIVE runs in the top of the 9th for a 9-3 win and a 1-0 series lead. The Bronx Bombers became the first team in American League history to hit a grand slam in back-to-back playoff games, while setting a franchise record by hitting at least three HRs in three consecutive postseason games. New York's goal in Game 2, after recording 31 runs and a major league-record 11 HRs in their first three postseason contests, is to push the top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays to the brink of elimination on Tuesday in Game 2 of the best-of-five ALDS. The starting pitching matchup is New York's 21-year-old rookie Deivi Garcia (3-2, 4.98 ERA), going up against Tampa Bay's 27-year-old Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA). Garcia's made just SIX starts in 2020 and earned his first career win Sep 9 at Toronto, 7-2 (7 IP / 2 ERs). That win was VERY noteworthy, as it snapped New York's five-game losing streak and a stretch in which the Yankees had lost 15 of 20, falling to the edge of the expanded playoff field. The Yankees made the postseason with room to spare but in Garcia's final three starts of 2020, he pitched 16.2 innings, allowing 21 hits and 13 ERs for a 7.02 ERA. Tampa Bay will counter with 6-foot-8 right-hander Tyler Glasnow. Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of The Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). However, he made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. Glasnow opened 0-0 (team was 1-2) over his first three starts of 2020 (5.56 ERA) but he allowed just two EERs or less in SIX of his last eight regular season starts (allowed three and four ERs in the other two, as the Rays won ALL eight of those starts. He then made up for his poor 2019 playoff starts, by pitching six innings and allowing just two ERs if an 8-2 Tampa Bay win that closed out the Blue Jays 2-0 in the wild card round. He'll take the mound tonight with the Rays having won his last NINE starts. 10 straight makes for a nice round number and that's my bet. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-06-20 | Astros v. A's -105 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 4:37 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 2020 season off three straight seasons of 100-plus wins (101, 103 and 107), making the World Series in 2017 and 2019 (won the first, lost the second). The team's season figured to be marred by criticism of "sign stealing" but COVID-19 pushed all other storylines to the 'back-burner.' The Astros opened 15-10 but would go 14-21 the rest of the way and became one of two teams to make the 2020 postseason field with a losing record (29-31). The Astros drew a great wild card matchup in Minnesota, whose postseason 'nightmare' continued. Houston eliminated the Twins 2-0, as the Twins have now lost an incomprehensible 18 consecutive postseason games with a total of seven rounds lost. Houston manager Dusty Baker, who took his fifth different team to the playoffs with teh Astros, advanced for the first time in seven rounds since winning the 2003 NLDS with the Chicago Cubs. The Oakland A's won the AL West in 2020 for the first time since 2013. The AL West champions lost the opener of its wild card series 4-1 to the White Sox but then won on consecutive days at home in Games 2 and 3 (5-3 and 6-4), advancing to an ALDS against the rival Houston Astros. Oakland snapped a NINE-game losing streak in winner-take-all postseason games, a major league record that dated to the 1973 World Series. The A's had lost six straight playoff series since sweeping Minnesota in the 2006 ALDS, starting with when Detroit swept Oakland in that year's ALCS. It was a humongous relief for a club that won 97 games each of the past two seasons only to lose the division to Houston and then the AL wild card game both years. The A's got the better of the Astros 7-3 in the season series but fell in Game 1 of this ALDS Monday night, 10-5. The teams combined for six home HRs (three each) but the Astros out-hit the A's 16-8, overcoming a 5-3 deficit to score the game's final SEVEN runs from the 6th-inning on. It's a matchup of left-handed starters in Game 2, Framber Valdez (5-3, 3.57 ERA) for Houston and Sean Manaea (4-3, 4.50 ERA) for Oakland. Valdez made 11 appearances in 2020, including 10 starts (team was 6-4). However, he gets the nod in this one because he pitched five scoreless innings in relief of Zack Greinke for the victory in Game 1 vs the Twins, keeping the bullpen fresh for the rest of the series. Valdez became the first reliever with five shutout innings in a playoff game since Madison Bumgarner did so for the Giants in Game 7 of the 2014 World Series. Manaea did not pitch in Oakland's 2-1 series win over the Chicago White Sox in the wild-card round and will take the mound for the first time since his last regular season start, which was back on Sep 23. Ironically, that Sep 23rd start came right here at Dodgers Stadium, when he beat LA 6-4, allowing three ERs in six innings. Manaea won 12 games in back-to-back seasons for Oakland in 2017 and 2018 (no-hit the Red Sox on 4/21/18) but was limited to just FIVE starts in 2019 after rehabbing from shoulder surgery that took place in Sep of 2018. However, he made his 2019 season debut in September and went 4-0 with a 1.21 ERA and 0.78 WHIP (30 Ks in 29 .2 innings. Big things were expected in 2020 but he flopped in his first four starts, going 0-2 (team was 1-3) with a 9.00 ERA. However, Manaea has gone 4-1 over his last seven starts (team is 6-1), posting a 2.77 ERA. He's Oakland's best starter but for some reason, has yet to be used this postseason. The A's are basically in a "must-win" situation and it's my belief (bet) that they have the "right man for the job!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-05-20 | Yankees -141 v. Rays | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the NYY Yankees at 8:07 ET. I don't want to compare the Yankees/Rays rivalry with the Red Sox/Yankees but the disdain the Tampa Bay Rays and New York Yankees share for each other is hardly a secret. Tampa Bay claimed its third-ever division title by winning EIGHT of 10 meetings, outscoring them 47-34. Tensions boiled over in the ninth inning of New York's 5-3 win back on Sep 1 at Yankee Stadium, when closer Aroldis Chapman threw a 101 mph fastball up and in at infielder Michael Brosseau's head, nearly prompting a benches-clearing incident. Now, after some hostile moments in the regular season, the stakes are significantly higher in this five-game ALDS being played in San Diego. Petco Park has been known as a pitchers' park and it seems only fitting that the team's two aces will square off. Gerrit Cole (7-3, 2.84 ERA in the regular season) takes the mound for New York, while Tampa Bay counters with Blake Snell (4-2, 3.24 ERA). You may have heard that Cole signed a nine-year, $324 million contract in December. The Yanks won his first five starts of 2020, lost his next four and then won his last three. Cole would go 3-0 while pitching seven innings in each one of his final three regular season starts. He gave up a modest 10 hits over those 21 innings and two ERs for a 0.67 ERA and a 24-3 KW ratio. He then was DOMINANT in New York's 12-3 rout of Cleveland (and likely Cy Young winner Shane Bieber). while Bieber got "Bronx-bombered" (allowed 7 ERs over 4.2 innings) and Cole allowed two runs in seven innings with 13 Ks against not a single walk! Snell won the AL's Cy Young award in 2018, going 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .178 BAA, He was Tampa's Opening Day starter for the 2019 season and defeated Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros. 5–1. However, he was placed on the injured list on April 16 after breaking a toe on his right foot while moving furniture in his bathroom and missed two starts. He returned but on July 25 it was announced that Snell would undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. Due to multiple trips to the disabled list, Snell finished with a 6–8 record last season (4.29 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / .241 BAA). Snell's been healthy this season, going 4-2 (3.24 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / .228 BAA) in 11 starts, with the Rays going 7-4 in those starts. Cole was not very good vs the Rays in three tries in 2020, taking a no-decision in an 8-4 Yankee win and then losing the next two, He's 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA in nine career starts vs the Rays (teams are 5-4). Snell has n]made two starts vs the Yankees in 2020, pitching just three innings in a 1-0 Tampa Bay win and then five innings while allowing three ERs in a 6-3 victory. However, he's just 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA in 18 career starts vs New York (team is 9-9). Cole was DOMINATE in the 2019 postseason (4-1 record with a 1.72 ERA and 0.87 WHIP in five starts for Houston) and then was terrific in his showdown with Bieber. As for Snell, he pitched 5.2 scoreless Indians in Game 1 vs Toronto (9-2 KW ratio) but that was just his fourth postseason appearance (2nd start). He owns a 0.82 ERA and 0.64 WHIP but he's pitched just 11 postseason innings. The 'Big Dog' here is Cole and he's my play. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-05-20 | Astros v. A's -135 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -135 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Game 1 Series Opener is on the Oak A's at 4:07 ET. The Houston Astros opened the 2020 season off three straight seasons of 100-plus wins (101, 103 and 107), making the World Series in 2017 and 2019 (won the first, lost the second). The team's season figured to be marred by criticism of "sign stealing" but COVID-19 pushed all other storylines to the 'back-burner.' The Astros opened 15-10 but would go 14-21 the rest of the way and became one of two teams to make the 2020 postseason field with a losing record (29-31). The Astros drew a great wild card matchup in Minnesota, whose postseason 'nightmare' continued. Houston eliminated the Twins 2-0, as the Twins have now lost an incomprehensible 18 consecutive postseason games with a total of seven rounds lost. Houston manager Dusty Baker, who took his fifth different team to the playoffs with teh Astros, advanced for the first time in seven rounds since winning the 2003 NLDS with the Chicago Cubs. The Oakland A's won the AL West in 2020 for the first time since 2013. The AL West champions lost the opener of its wild card series 4-1 to the White Sox but then won on consecutive days at home in Games 2 and 3 (5-3 and 6-4), advancing to an ALDS against the rival Houston Astros. Oakland snapped a NINE-game losing streak in winner-take-all postseason games, a major league record that dated to the 1973 World Series. The A's had lost six straight playoff series since sweeping Minnesota in the 2006 ALDS, starting with when Detroit swept Oakland in that year's ALCS. It was a humongous relief for a club that won 97 games each of the past two seasons only to lose the division to Houston and then the AL wild card game both years. The A's got the better of the Astros 7-3 in the season series but it should be noted that they had the advantage of getting eight of the 10 games at home because of a joint walk-out on a scheduled game at Houston on Aug. 28 and a coronavirus-caused postponement two days later. Zack Greinke was considered to be the logical choice for Houston in Game 1 but instead it will be Lance McCullers Jr (5-3, 3.93 ERA). The A's will counter with Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29 ERA). McCullers has made 93 career appearances (91 starts), going 33-25 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His 3202 numbers (over 11 starts) are pretty much in line with his career ones but look at his away/home breakdown. McCullers has made six home starts, posting a 1.42 ERA and .159 BAA but in five road starts, he owns a 7.33 ERA and .290 BAA. Yes, this is a neutral site, but his stats AWAY from his home park HAVE to be worrisome. Now look at Bassitt. He made 11 starts in 2020 (record above), with the A's going an impressive 8-3 in those contests. Most notably, he came up HUGE in Game 2 of the wild card series with the A's facing elimination. He gave the A's seven strong innings (7 IP / 1 ER) of a must-have 5-3 victory. That shouldn't have come as a surprise, as in four September starts he was 3-0 (team was 4-0) with a 0.34 ERA and a 25-5 KW ratio. A's grab the Game 1 win. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-04-20 | Eagles +7.5 v. 49ers | Top | 25-20 | Win | 100 | 57 h 43 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET. The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East last season and opened the 2020 season by taking a 17-0 lead over Washington in Week 1. However, NOTHING has gone right since that time. Washington would score that game's final 27 points, as the Eagles lost 27-17 to a team that went 3-13 in 2019 and has lost both games this season since beating the Eagles by 15 and 14 points (allowed 30 and 24 points). The 49ers were in last year's Super Bowl and held a 20-10 lead over KC with under 6 1/2 minutes left in the game. However, the Chiefs 'exploded' for three TDs in just a five-minute span, for a 31-20 victory. The Niners were upset at home in Week 1 by the Arizona Cardinals 24-20, as a seven-point favorite. San Francisco has rebounded with back-to-back wins the last two Sundays 31-13 and 36-9 but those wins have come at MetLife Stadium against the pathetic Jets and Giants (a combined 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS). Philly QB Carson Wentz entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of his last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday with the lowest passer rating in the NFL at 63.9 and has already thrown six interceptions. RB Miles Sanders missed Week 1 but has returned to rush for 190 yards (5.0 YPC) and one TD, while catching seven passes for 48 yards. He's an important cog, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Wentz has a dynamic TE duo, Ertz (15 catches / one TD) and Goedert (13 catches / one TD). However, the Philly defense HAS to improve, as the Eagles have not forced a SINGLE turnovers on defense through 13 quarters this season (Eagles did recover a fumble on a punt return last week). Jimmy G got hurt in Week 2 and remains out. Nick Mullens started in Week 3, completing 25 of 36 for 343 yards with one TD and zero INTs (108.9 QB rating). Top RB Mostert remains out and McKinnon gets the call again. He's gained 139 yards (6.9 YPC) with two TDs so far but had just 38 yards on 14 attempts in Week 3. The Niners have dealt with key injuries this season, including Garoppolo, TE George Kittle, CB Richard Sherman, 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa, RB Mostert and No. 1 receiver Deebo Samuel. The good news is that Kittle and Samuel will be back this week. The bad news is that TE Jordan Reed (11 catches with two TDs) joined RB Tevin Coleman on injured reserve. "Right now we're not a very good football team," Philly head coach Doug Pederson said. "We're not very smart. We're shooting ourselves in the foot. We're leaving touchdowns on the field offensively, and we're just not executing." I'm NOT ready to give up on Wentz. Facing an 0-3 start for the first time since 1999 last Sunday, Wentz drove the Eagles 75 yards in the final three minutes. He picked up nine yards on third-and-6 to the Bengals 19 and then ran in from the seven with a head-first dive into the end zone. Elliott's extra point tied it with 21 seconds left. However, neither team could do anything in overtime. San Francisco has been a poor home favorite, going just 7-17-1 ATS in that role its last 25 tries. Take the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-04-20 | Bills v. Raiders +3.5 | Top | 30-23 | Loss | -120 | 72 h 54 m | Show |
My 8* NFL Week 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the LV Raiders at 4:25 ET. The Buffalo Bills are one of seven NFL teams still unbeaten (3-0) and will travel to Las Vegas in Week 4 for a game with the 2-1 Raiders. The Bills blew a 28-3 third-quarter lead last Sunday at home against the Rams but then got 'bailed out' by a 'phantom' defensive pass-interference call that allowed Josh Allen to complete a three-yard TD pass with 15 seconds to go (Bills won 35-32). Meanwhile, the Raiders lost for the first time in 2020, falling 36-20 in New England to the Pats. Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. Buffalo has won its first three games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1991-92. Most would say that QB Josh Allen has had an up-and-down start to his NFL career in 2018 and 2019 but as I've noted before, he did become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. What all will agree upon is that here in 2020, he's taken his game to another level. He's completing 71.1% for 1,038 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 124.8). The acquisition of WR Stefon Diggs (formerly of the Vikings) has been HUGE. Diggs has 20 catches and two TDs plus along with returning WRs Beasley (15 catches / 15.4 YPC) and Brown (10 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs), Allen has quite a trio. A concern is Buffalo's defense, which after allowing just 16.2 PPG in 2019, has allowed 25.7 PPG after three games of 2020. Jon Gruden is in his second stint with the Raiders, with a stop in between in Tampa Bay with the Bucs (won the Super Bowl in his first season back in the 2002 season) and a VERY successful career in the TV booth. The Raiders were just 4-12 in his first season (2018) and 7-9 last season, However, the Raiders are now playing out of Las Vegas and things are looking up, although they do play in the AFC West with the KC Chiefs. QB Derek Carr has looked VERY good through three games, completing 74.0% for 784 yards with six TDs and zero INTs in 100 attempts (QB rating of 116.4). RB Josh Jacobs had a terrific rookie season (1,150 yards on 4.7 YPC with 7 TDs) and while his start is more modest in 2020 (252 yards on 3.7 YPC with 3 TDs), this guy is "a player!" TE Waller is Carr's top target with 20 catches (just one TD) but he's averaging only 7.9 YPC (that HAS to improve). Defense has not been a Las Vegas strength, as the Raiders are allowing 30.0 PPG on 406. YPG. I have great respect for the Bills but the Raiders beat the Saints in their only previous game in their brand-new stadium, 34-24 back in Week 2 on MNF. Buffalo's defense allowed Miami to score 28 and the Rams to score 32 (no one counts team's win over the Jets) and Carr and the Raiders can match scores with Allen and the Bills. I'm backing the home dog, as the Bills suffer their first loss of 2020. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-04-20 | Ravens v. Washington Football Team OVER 45 | Top | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 74 h 14 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Bal/Was Over at 1:00 ET. Here's part of what I wrote in taking KC over Baltimore when those two teams met last Monday night. "It's hard to say a team off a 14-2 year has something to prove this season but that's the case with the Ravens. They routed the Browns 38-6 in Week 1 and then had little trouble with the Texans in Week 2, winning 33-16. Jackson has completed 77.6% of his passes for 479 yards with four TDs, no INTS and a QB rating of 134.6. He's added 99 yards rushing but no TDs) for a running game averaging 170.5 PPG on 5.1 YPC. Three RBs are sharing carries, Edwards has 90 yards (6.4 YPC) with one TD, Ingram 84 yards (4.4 YPC) with one TD and rookie Dobbins has 70 yards (9.8 YPC) with two TDs. The Baltimore D is not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG) last season and through two games of 2020, ranked T-2 in yards allowed (305.0 YPG) and 1st in points allowed (11:0 PPG)." I closed with this. "The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games but the Chiefs will bring an 11-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (eight straight in the regular season / 3-0 playoff run last year) and while Jackson is 21-3 as a starter during the regular season, TWO of those losses have come against Kansas City. This is NOT a playoff game but it sure has that kind of atmosphere. Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason (13-2 TD/INT ratio and 106.6 QB rating), while Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason, completing 51.1% with three TDs and three INTs for a 68.3 QB rating. Take the points." The result was a 34-20 KC win, Jackson completed just 53.6% of his passes for 97 yards and ran for 83 but with zero TDs. The Baltimore defense gave up 35 points and 29 FDs, while allowing 517 yards. Now other than playing home games in Maryland, there are few similarities between the Baltimore Ravens and the Washington Football Team. Washington finished 3-13 in 2019, the worst record in the NFC and is nothing more than a rebuilding team in 2020. Washington fell behind the Eagles 17-0 at home in Week 1 but scored the game's final 27 points. Washington had eight sacks and forced three TOs, while its scoring drives covered 45, 20, 26, 48 and 20 yards. Since that Week 1 win, Washington's allowed 30 and 34 points in losses to Arizona and Cleveland. The Ravens entered Monday night on an 11-1 ATS run in which they have averaged 34.8 PPG. I see no way that Baltimore won't top that average in this contest, against a weak Washington defense. That means Washington won't have to contribute too much for this contest to 'go over!' That's my bet. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-04-20 | Browns v. Cowboys -4 | Top | 49-38 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 18 m | Show |
My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET. The Cowboys opened the 2020 season with a new head coach for the first time in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green Bay in the season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherited what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. Dallas welcomes the Browns to "Jerry's House" on Sunday just 1-2, with each of its first three games being decided in the final minute. A questionable offensive PI call prevented Dallas an opportunity to kick a game-tying FG at the end of its Week 1 game at the Rams (lost 20-17) and then Dallas overcame a 39-24 deficit at home to the Falcons in Week 2, scoring the game's final 16 points inside the last five minutes of the 4thb quarter (game-winning FG in a 40-39 victory came at 0:00). Dallas then overcame a 30-15 deficit at Seattle to take a 31-30 lead, only to see Seattle score with 1:47 to go. Down 38-31, Dallas drove to Seattle's 26-yard line, when Prescott was picked off to end the game. We ALL know the plight of the Cleveland Browns, who won just four games from 2015-17.However, Baker Mayfield threw two TD passes, Nick Chubb ran for two more scores and the Browns moved over .500 for the first time since 2014 with a 34-20 win Sunday over the Washington Football Team in Week 3. First-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has the Browns 2-1 for the first time since 2011. It's also the first time they've had a winning record since Week 14 in 2014, as Cleveland had gone 90 consecutive weeks without a winning record. As the ad once said, "Is it Real or is it Memorex?" Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). Mayfield has thrown for a modest 564 yards in three games (5 TDs / 2 INTs / QB rating of 91.5), as Cleveland's running game has been terrific. Chubb has 292 yards (5.7 YPC) and four TDs, while Hunt has 204 yards (5.2 YPC), giving the NFL's third-best rushing total (170.3 YPG on 5.2 YPC). Speaking of RBs, Dallas' Zeke Elliott, a two-time rushing champion, has a modest 219 yards on YPC. Dallas QB Dak Prescott finished 37 of 57 for 472 yards, with three touchdowns and two interceptions against Seattle setting career highs for yards and attempts. However, Dallas lost. Prescott has topped 400 yards passing his last two games (is averaging 396.0 YPG on the season) but is that really helping? Better balance is a MUST plus the Dallas defense has been dreadful the last two weeks, allowing 39 and 38 points The Cowboys have failed to cover 10 of their last 12 as a non-division home favorite but backing the Browns on the road is NOT an option. Yes, they own a winning record (2-1) for the FIRST time in 91 weeks but is that really a 'buy' sign? Cleveland's two wins have come over 0-2-1 Cincinnati (2-14 in 2019) and 1-2 Washington (3-13 in 2019) and come in 5-36 SU on the road since the start of the 2015 season (also: Browns are 6-15 ATS their last 21 vs NFC foes). Cowboys "get this one right" and win "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-04-20 | Saints -4 v. Lions | Top | 35-29 | Win | 100 | 54 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET. The 1-2 New Orleans Saints visit the 1-2 Detroit Lions on Sunday. The Saints come in off back-to-back losses, having lost consecutive games for the first time in THREE years. As for the Lions, they are well familiar with consecutive losses but Detroit just ended an 11-game, 11-month losing streak with last Sunday's 26-23 upset of the Cardinals in the desert (game-winning 39-yard FG came on the game's final play). The Saints had hoped that WR Michael Thomas would return from a groin injury that has kept him out the last two games but he was ruled out late Friday. Thomas caught 149 passes in 2019, an NFL record for the most in a single season. He's been missed, although Brees is completing 70.2% for 760 yards with six TDs and just one INT (106.2 QB rating). In fact, while Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. RB Alvin Kamara didn't agree to a contract extension until right before the opening of the 2020 season but he enters this game leading the Saints in rushing with 153 yards and three TDs plus also leads the team in receiving with 27 catches for 285 yards and three TDs (he owns NFL-high six TDs from scrimmage). The Lions finally ended an 11-game slide with last Sunday's win. The Lions were outgained 377-322 by the Cardinals, as the game's key stat was Detroit picking off Arizona QB Kyler Murray three times, while the Detroit offense did not turn the ball over even once. Matt Stafford had a solid game (270 yards passing with two TDs) but Detroit is still struggling to run the ball. Adrian Peterson is the team's featured back but Detroit ran for just 90 yards against the Cards, averaging 3.3 YPG. A.P. has 209 yards rushing (4.9 YPV) but does not have a rushing TD and the team comes in rushing for only 105.7 YPG. Detroit's defense is allowing 30.7 PPG on 409.3 YPG (both totals rank near the bottom of all NFL teams). Embattled Detroit head coach Matt Patricia could really use two straight victories, as Green Bay and Chicago are both 3-0 atop the NFC North. "It's a huge difference between being 2-2 and the alternative," Lions running back Adrian Peterson acknowledged. He's got that right. Getting back to New Orleans, the Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). The Saints sure don't want to fall to 1-3 and New Orleans does enter this contest having gone 12-4 (75%) ATS its last 16 as a road favorite. As for the Lions, they did eke out a win last week but as noted, that ended an 11-game losing streak in which they were 2-9 ATS. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-04-20 | Jaguars v. Bengals -1 | Top | 25-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET. It's NOT exactly Brady vs Brees like in Week 1, when the Bucs played the Saints but Sunday's Week contest between the Jags and Browns will feature Garner Minshew vs Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow. Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles as a rookie last season and showed plenty of promise. He opened his sophomore season completing 73.8 percent for 787 yards with six TDs and three INTs (101.3 QB rating). You may just have heard about Burro, last year's Heisman winner who led LSU to a 15-0 season and the national championship, then was the overall No. 1 pick by the Bengals. He has opened his rookie season completing 64.5 percent for 821 yards with five TDs and just one INT (more modest 89.0 QB rating). Both QBs have shaky offense lines, leading Minshew to be sacked 10 times and Burrow has suffered 14 sacks. Neither QB gets much help from their respective running games, as the Jags are averaging 109.3 YPG on the ground, while the Bengals are averaging a woeful 79.3 YPG. The Jags no longer have RB Fournette, who topped 1,000 yards rushing in TWO of his three seasons with the Jags, including 1,152 last year. Rookie James Robinson has become the team's featured back and has 210 yards on the ground with all three of the team's rushing TDs on a solid 4.9 YPC. He's also added 10 catches for 129 yards. So far, he's been a better-than-expected replacement. Good news for the Jags is that DJ Chark (73 catches and 8 TDS as a rookie), is expected to play, after missing last week's game (7 catches / 15.6 YPC / 1 TD). Fellow WRs Cole has 15 catches and to TDs but averages only 9.9 YPC, while Shenault has 11 catches and one TD but averages only 9.5 YPC. The Jacksonville D is allowing a middle-of-the-pack 364.3 YPG but also 28.0 PPG. Cincy RB Mixon has 164 yards rushing (about 70% of the team's total, while averaging just 3.2 YPC. Bernard is listed as a RB but has just TWO carries on the season and he's basically a receiving option out of the backfield (12 catches) in 2020. WR Boyd leads with 21 catches and former star Green has 13 catches but a sad 8.9 YPC average. His first five seasons he averaged 983 catches per, topping 1,000 yards in each while hauling in 45 TDs. If Burrow can't get him back in form, Green may soon be an ineffective player. The Cincy D is allowing 392.3 YPG but a few less points than Jacksonville's D, at 24.7 PPG. It seems like light years ago that the Jags led the Pats in New England in the AFC championship game in the mid-fourth quarter, before falling 24-20. However, that was actually the 2017 season, The Jags opened 3-1 in 2018 but then 'implode,' going 2-10 the rest of the wat-y. A 6-10 season followed in 2019 and the team's 1-2 start this season means the Jags are 9-22 since that 3-1 start in 2018, including 4-12 on the road. The Bengals made FIVE straight postseason appearances under QB Andy Dalton from 2011-15 but lost each time in their first playoff game. FOUR straight losing seasons followed, including 2019's 2-14 disaster. That gave them the No. 1 pick, which the team used to take Burrow. How will the "Burrow era" play out? TBD. The Bengals have plenty of weaknesses but they've been in ALL three games, losing 16-13 at home to the Chargers in Week 1 (led 13-6 in the 4th quarter), 35-30 at Cleveland in Week 2 and almost beat the Eagles last Sunday in Philly, settling for a 23-23 tie in OT (Eagles tied the game on a 75-yard TD drive with 21 seconds to go). I REALLY like what I've seen from Burrow and I'm betting that Week 4 will 'be the charm,' as Joe gets his first NFL win as a starting QB. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-03-20 | LSU v. Vanderbilt OVER 49.5 | Top | 41-7 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 44 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Total of the Month is on LSU/Vandy Over at 7:30 ET. LSU took the field last Saturday at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, minus 17 starters from last year's national champions. LSU had NO answer for Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense, which he brought to Miss St and the SEC in 2020.The Bulldogs started K.J. Costello at QB, a graduate transfer from Stanford. He was a solid QB for the Cardinal but he looked like Patrick Mahomes, ripping the LSU pass D for 623 pass yards (an SEC record), throwing for five TDs. Miss St won 44-34, ending LSU's 16-game winning streak. LSU heads out on the road on the first Saturday of October to play the Vanderbilt Commodores. Vandy opened its season at Texas A&M and lost just 17-12 as a more than four-TD underdog. The Commodores allowed just 17 FDs and held the Aggies to 372 yards. However, the Vandy offense was inept last season (16.5 PPG on 299.3 YPG) would do very little (12 points on 255 yards). Ken Seals won the starting QB job and was 20 of 29 but threw for just 150 yards (one TD / 2 INTs), while Vandy's running game mustered just 105 yards (2.8 YPC). Getting back to LSU, no expects Myles Brennan to measure up to the departed Joe Burrow but he did throw for 345 yards and three TDs (but also two interceptions). The Tigers' running game (38 carries, 80 yards) was pedestrian, though that counts minus-45 yards on MSU's seven sacks. Gone are WRs Chase (84 catches / 20 TDs) and Jefferson (111 catches / 18 TDs) plus TE moss (47 catches / 4 TDs) but Marshall returns and he caught eight passes for 122 yards with two TDs. LSU has a massive talent edge in this matchup (duh!) plus will be hungry to rebound after last Saturday's loss. These teams played in Nashville last season as well, as LSU rolled to a 66-38 win. I think it is very possible that LSU covers this over/under all by itself but a few scores from Vandy (note: the 'Dores averaged 21.6 PPG at home in 2019) should make this an "easy over!" That's the play. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-03-20 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky -5.5 | Top | 42-41 | Loss | -109 | 93 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 4:00 ET. Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Kiffin's debut for Ole Miss saw his team gain 613 yards but allow 642 to Florida, as Gators QB Trask threw for 416 yards (6 TDs / 0 INTs). Florida also gained 196 yards on the ground (6.8 YPC). Ole Miss QB Matt Corral threw for 395 yards (3 TDs and 1 INT) but scoring 35 points doesn't help much when one's team allows 51! The Rebels now head out on the road to play at Kentucky, which lost 29-13 last Saturday but played a very competitive game in losing at then-No. 8 Auburn. The Wildcats seemingly scored a TD right before the half (were trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six) was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards, so expect the Ole Miss offense to have a tougher time here on the road than it did last week at home. Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. The 2018 season was a historic one for the Wildcats, as they snapped a 31-year losing streak to Florida, finishing 9-3–only the fourth time in school history that the Wildcats have won at least nine games. Kentucky then defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl on January, 1st, 2019 giving the Wildcats their first 10 win season since 1977, and only their third in school history. Stoops was named SEC Coach of the Year. The 2019 season was one of overcoming adversity. After a 2-3 start in which they lost all of their QBs to injury, Kentucky turned to WR Lynn Bowden Jr. to take over at QB. With a revamped offense, the Wildcats finished the Regular Season 7-5 routing Louisville 45-13 on Senior Day. Kentucky then capped the season with a thrilling win over Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, as the Wildcats scored the winning TD with 15 seconds remaining for an 8-5 finish. Trey Wilson started at QB for Kentucky last week and threw for 239 yards (one TD / one INT), with WR Ali catching nine balls for 98 yards, while RB Smoke ran for 62 yards on just seven attempts (8.9 YPC). However, three TOs did in the Wildcats. Kentucky should fare MUCH better against an Ole Miss defense which looked pretty helpless against Florida. Ole Miss enters having lost SEVEN straight on the road, with the Rebels last road win coming at Arkansas back in the 2018 season (note: the Razorbacks have currently lost 20 straight SEC games). The Ole Miss defense has allowed an average off 32.4 PPG in that seven-game road slide, while Kentucky plays its home opener having gone 12-3 SU at home the last two seasons. Lay the points! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-03-20 | Memphis -1.5 v. SMU | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 57 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Memphis at 3:30 ET. COVID-19 has surely impacted the Memphis season as the Tigers opened their 2020 season back on Sep 5 with a 37-24 home win over Arkansas St (Tigers we favored by just under three TDs). The program has since had to pause activities and cancel games against Houston and UTSA, so the team's second game of the current season (its conference-opener at SMU) is being played almost a FULL month after its season-opener (unprecedented break between Games 1 and 2?). Unlike Memphis, Sonny Dykes' SMU Mustangs are 3-0, after a 50-7 rout of Stephen F. Austin last week. The Tigers lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida St, right after Memphis won the AAC championship game. That victory gave the Tigers a 12-1 record and earned the school its first-ever New Year's Six bowl berth (lost 53-39 to Penn St). Taking over for Norvell is Ryan Silverfield, whose only game as a head coach was last year's Cotton Bowl. He gets credit for keeping QB Brady White and WR Demonte Coxie at Memphis. White threw for 4,014 yards (454 vs Penn St in the Cotton Bowl), becoming only the second Memphis QB to do so. He had 33 TDs and only 11 INTs, with Coxie as his main target (76 catches / 1,276 yards / 9 TDs). What Memphis didn't count on was RB Kenneth Gainwell, who had 1,459 rushing yards (6.3 YPC / 13 TDs) as a freshman plus added 51 catches for 610 yards with three more TDs, to opt-out of the season due to COVID-19 concerns. White completed 27 of 37 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Arkansas State and has passed for more than 7,500 yards to go along with 63 TD in his career at Memphis. Coxie had eight catches (one TD) vs Ark St but the star was TE Dykes, who caught 10 passes and two TDs, coming back off an injury that forced him to miss almost all of 2019. SMU head coach Sonny Dykes spent three year s at La Tech, before getting the head coaching jog at Cal, where he flopped (19-30 in four seasons). He got the job at SMU in December of 2017 and in his full season, went 5-7. However, last year's 10-2 regular season got the Mustangs to a bowl game but they were blown out 52-28 by FAU. Steve Buechele transferred from Texas and the QB threw for 3,929 yards and 34 scores last year (just 10 INTs He's off to a good start this season, completing 64 of 94 passes for 852 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. WRs Roberson (17 catches / 3 TDs), Gray (8 catches / 19.5 YPC / 2 TDs) and Rice (13 catches / 18.5 yPC) plus TE Granson (eight catches / 2 TDs) give him plenty of targets. The SMU running game has averaged 26.7 YPG (6.0 YPC), led by Bentley (2380 yards / 10.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and McDaniel (293 yards on 5.0 YPC). Why not SMU as a small home dog? After all, SMU has already played three games and Memphis head coach Silverfield admitted the team will have to rotate more players in and out in all three phases of the game. He added that "a majority" of his team is back and he is confident the players are in a good spot to play. "We feel like we are getting back where we need to be," he said. "Still not at full strength, nor will we be at kickoff. But we are getting to where we need to be to where we feel comfortable having normal practices." As for SMU's Dykes, he told MustangVision that it will be hard to get a read on Memphis given its layoff, but he pointed out that the Tigers have won a lot of games over the last three years and that they will be ready to play. "They may not have played for a while, but those guys have a lot of skins on the wall," Dykes said. "They have won a lot of football games." In fact, Memphis has "won a lot of football games" against SMU. Last year's 54-48 win was not as close as the final score, as SMU scored two TDs (plus converted both two-point tries) in the games' final eight minutes (Memphis led, 54-32). Let me add that the Tigers' win in 2019 was their SIXTH straight over SMU, including wins of 28-18, 51-7 and 48-10 in Dallas. Note that while RB Gainwell opted-out, RB Clark gained 105 yards (5.3 YPC) in the Tigers' game vs Ark St, leading the way for Memphis to rush for 222 yards on 4.7 YPC (team averaged 186.7 YPG with Gainwell). That Ark St team Memphis beat 37-24 went into Kansas St and beat the Wildcats 35-31 as a two-TD underdog the very next week. Ask Oklahoma if Kansas St is any good? Meanwhile, SMU's 3-0 start has come against a 1-3 Texas St team (3-9 in 2019), 1-1 North Texas (4-8 in 2019) and SF Austin, an FCS school. The "price is right" for a SEVENTH straight win for Memphis over SMU, which practically guarantees a cover. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-03-20 | Baylor v. West Virginia +3 | Top | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 44 h 38 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET. The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field last Saturday with a home contest against Kansas. Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in a 47-14 home win over Kansas. Baylor takes to the road this Saturday to face on Big-12 rival West Va, which has opened 1-1 after losing 27-13 at then-No. 15 Oklahoma State last weekend. West Virginia fell behind 17-0 in the first half and managed just one TD (Winston Wright's 70-yard scoring pass from QB Jarret Doege). Baylor will need MUCH more from Brewer in this one, as he has thrown for more than 3,000 years the last two seasons with a 40-16 TD/INT ratio. The running game totaled 203 yards on 4.7 YPC, besting last season's average of 166.4 YPG. However, let's remember Baylor was hosting Big-12 doormat Kansas, which fell to 6-84 in conference play since 2010 (note: Jayhawks are also 2-52 SU on the road in that span against all opponents). Gaining just 352 yards against a Kansas defense that allowed 475.2 YPG last season (122nd), is NOT acceptable. Baylor's defense, which returned just two starters, wasn't tested by an inept Kansa team but that WON'T be the case against MOST (all?) of its other conference foes. West Va QB Jarrett Doege was sacked five times vs Okla St but still managed to throw for 285 yards (70-yard TD pass to Wright, helped). West Va had a non-existent rushing game last season (973.3 YPG ranked 128th of 130 teams) but Leddie Brown ran for 104 vs Okla St and has 227 yards in the team's first two games. West Va did allow two, 100-yard runners against the Cowboys but overall, held an Okla St team that averaged 453.9 YPG last season to a modest 342 yards. These schools have met as conference foes eight times and Baylor is 0-4 SU in Morgantown. Brewer passed for 277 yards and two TDs in 2019's 17-14 home win over West Va but back in 2018 at Morgantown, threw three INTs in a 58-14 loss. Note that while Baylor flourished with an 11-3 season in 2019, West Va was just 5-7. Yet, the Mountaineers held Baylor to season-lows in FDs (17) and total yards (287) in that three-point loss. Baylor expects to end its 0-4 run in Morgantown but as Mick Jagger once sang, "You Can't Always Get What You Want!" Home dog wins outright. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-02-20 | Cardinals +106 v. Padres | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the StL Cardinals at 7:08 ET. San Diego's powerful offense finally burst to life in the 6th-inning of Game 2, after slumbering through a 7-4 loss in Game 1 and a listless first five innings last night. The Cards led 6-2 heading into the bottom of the sixth but the Padres hit five HRs while plating NINE runs from the 6th to the 8th inning. The Padres are the first team in postseason history with five HRs from the sixth inning onward in a game and Thursday's victory marked the team's 23rd comeback win of 2020. The teams now come back and play a "winner-take-all" Game 3 on Friday night. The Cardinals had to play 53 games in 44 days, including 11 doubleheaders, just to reach the playoffs. Both staffs figure to be strapped after the clubs combined to use 17 pitchers last night but the Cards will be able to send Jack Flaherty to the mound, who last pitched on Sep 25th. He's well-rested and gives the Cards a HUGE edge, San Diego's Game 1 and 2 starters (Chris Paddack and Zach Davies) lasted only a combined 4.1 innings, forcing the Padres to use eight relievers on Wednesday and seven more on Tuesday, for a total of 13.2 innings. SIX San Diego relievers have worked in both games. Flaherty is NOT the same pitcher as he was in 2019 when he finished fourth in the National League Cy Young Award voting. He went 11-8 in 33 starts last year with a 2.75 ERA, a league-leading 0.97 WHIP and a .192 BAA. He's 4-3 with a 4.91 ERA in nine starts in 2020, posting a 1.22 WHIP and a .221 BAA. The Padres are calling this a "bullpen game" but as noted above, the bullpen just may be 'gassed!' The latest word is that Adrian Morejohn will "open" for San Diego and he's made 14 career appearances (six starts), posting a 6.26 ERA, 1.54v WHIP and .307 BAA. However, who knows who SD will start (doesn't matter). Flaherty is 1-0 in three career starts against the Padres with a 1.10 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and a .200 BAA. Last night's victory was the Padres' first postseason win at Petco Park, which opened in 2004. The first four losses were to St Louis, which eliminated the Padres in the division series in 2005 and 2006 (the last time the Padres made the postseason), as well as in 1996 when the Padres played at Jack Murphy Stadium. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-01-20 | White Sox v. A's -100 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* Late-Breaker is on the Oak A's at 3:10 ET. The A's bounced back from a 4-1 Game 1 loss to take Game 2 by the score of 5-3. That sent the series to a deciding Game 3 on Thursday but which pitchers the White Sox and A's would send to the mound for that deciding game was unknown until about 12 noon ET. The White Sox have chosen 25-year-old rookie Dane Dunning (2-0, 3.97 ERA), who made seven starts in the regular season. The A's have chosen Mike Fiers (6-3, 4.58 ERA). With that pitching matchup set, I've released a Late-Breaker on Oakland. The A's have gone 6-1 in Dunning's seven starts but in his most recent two, he's allowed eight ERs on nine hits over seven innings. He's never faced the A's and this marks his first postseason start. The A's considered lefty Sean Manaea but chose NOT to tempt fate, as the White Sox ran their record to 15-0 when facing lefty starters this season when they beat Oakland starter Jesus Luzardo in the series opener. Instead, it will be Fiers. Here's the rub with him. Since joining Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), he has made 54 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 39-15 (.722) in those contests! That includes the team going 23-4 (.852) in his 27 home starts! Oakland avoids Chicago's perfect record against lefties this year by choosing Fiers, plus how can one argue with the team's W/L record when he's started at home? One last thing, The White Sox have won just 21 of 47 games started by opposing right-handers this year. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
10-01-20 | Reds +125 v. Braves | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Cin Reds at 12:08 ET. | |||||||
09-30-20 | Heat v. Lakers -4.5 | Top | 98-116 | Win | 100 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
My NBA 10* Game of the Year is on the LA Lakers at 9:00 ET. The Miami Heat may be just the East's No. 5 but they are in The Finals against the LA Lakers, the West's No. 1 seed. Miami is the first team seeded fifth or lower to reach the NBA Finals since the eighth-seeded New York Knicks lost to San Antonio in 1999. The last team seeded fifth or lower to win an NBA title was Houston in 1995, when it beat Orlando as the West's No. 6 seed. The Lakers cleared enough cap space to lure LeBron James in 2018 free agency and then traded the cache of draft assets they collected in six straight trips to the lottery for Anthony Davis. Owning two of the five best players in the league has the Lakers on the verge of tying the Celtics for the most NBA titles all-time, at 17. While the Lakers own the two-best players in this series, look at the Heat's journey to The Finals. They swept the undermanned Indiana Pacers in the first round (4-0 ATS) and then KO'd two-time reigning MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and the East-leading Milwaukee Bucks in the second round (4-1 SU & ATS) on the strength of a versatile defense and an arsenal of offensive weaponry, They then beat the equally well-balanced Celtics in the conference finals in six games (4-2 SU & ATS) by out-hustling and out-executing Boston. All FIVE starters average in double figures, led by PG Dragic (20.9-4.2-4.7), swingman Butler (30.7-5.7-4.5) and PF Adebayo (18.5-11.4-4.9). SF Crowder (12/3 & 5.7) and SG Robinson (11.5) round out the starting-five, while Kentucky rookie guard Tyler Herro (16.5) has become a playoff star coming off the bench. Switching to the Lakers, it's A.D. (28.8 & 9.3) and LBJ (26.7-10.3-8.9) plus a ever-changing cast of characters that play well one game and then disappear in the next. Kuzma is the team's first player off the bunch and is the only other Laker to average in double digits (10.5), more than two 'TDs' fewer than A.D. and LBJ. Caldwell-Pope (9.9) and Danny Green (8.1) have joined A.D. and LBJ as having started all 15 games of the playoffs LA. Caldwell-Pope, Green and Kuzma are joined by a rotating collection of Alex Caruso, Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee, Markieff Morris and Rajon Rondo, not exactly the kind of supporting cast you would expect on a dominant playoff team. Both teams are 12-3 with Miami going 12-3 ATS, while the Lakers are 9-5-1 ATS. The Lakers can be a disjointed group but A.D. and LBJ are truly a 'Dynamic Duo!' Also, the Lakers are shooting an impressive 49.8% as a team and when they've been favored by six points or less in this season's playoffs, have gone 4-0-1 ATS. My NBA Game of the Year is on the LA Lakers! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-30-20 | Blue Jays +131 v. Rays | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Tor Blue Jays at 4:07 ET. MLB's 60-game schedule was limited to regional play, so SEVEN of the eight wild card series featured teams that haven't met since 2019! The exception is the series between AL East rivals Toronto and Tampa Bay. Of the four AL games played on Tuesday, the top-seed Rays were the only higher seed to win (three of four road teams won). Former Cy Young winner Blake Snell took a no-hitter into the sixth inning, shortstop Willy Adames made splashy defensive plays and Manuel Margot delivering a two-run HR, the AL East champions opened the playoffs Tuesday with a 3-1 victory over the eight-seeded Toronto Blue Jays. The Jays are in a win or go home scenario on Tuesday, as Hyun-Jin Ryu (5-2, 2.69 ERA) will take the mound against Tyler Glasnow (5-1, 4.08 ERA). Ryu went 14-5 (2.32 ERA) with the Dodgers last season, the THIRD time in five full seasons with LA that he won 14 times. Ryu was signed as a free agent in the offseason and has been one of MLB's better offseason acquisitions. He got off to a slow start in July's two starts, allowing eight ERs on 13 hits in nine innings (8.00 ERA) but the Rays would go 9-3 in his 12 starts, justifying his FA signing. Glasnow opened the 2019 season 5–0 with a 1.75 ERA, earning him American League Pitcher of The Month honors for April. However, after straining his arm against the Yankees on May 10, Glasnow went to the 10 Day IL. He went to the 60 day IL on May 26, before returning in September to make four starts. He did not get past the fifth inning in any of them, finishing the 2019 season with a 6–1 record and a 1.78 ERA in 60.2 innings (0.89 WHIP and .186 BAA) over 12 starts (Rays were 10-2). His ERA (4.08 to 1.78), his WHIP (1.13 to 0.89) and his BAA (.200 to .186) are all higher this season but the Rays have gone 9-2 in his 11 starts, including having won EIGHT in a row entering this contest. So why take Ryu? Ryu has pitched n]better on the road all season, with a 2.20 ERA and .195 BAA, compared to a 3.15 ERA and .269 BAA. He's also made eight postseason appearances while with the Dodgers, while Glasnow made two starts in the playoffs against the Astros in 2019, losing both while posting a 7.71 ERA. Glasnow didn't face the Blue Jays this season but he's 0-2 with a 6.17 ERA in six career starts against them (team is 2-4). This series is headed to a deciding Game 3. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-30-20 | Reds v. Braves -120 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Atl Braves at 12:08 ET. The Atlanta Braves entered this 60-game season off back-to-back NL East titles and added a third by going 35-25 to earn the NL's No. 2 seed. However, the Braves have dropped NINE straight postseason series since beating Houston during the 2001 NLDS, not including an additional one-game 2012 NL wild-card loss against St Louis. As for the Reds, they came into 2020 off SIX consecutive losing seasons (having lost 94-plus games four different years) to go and earn the NL's No. 7. Cincinnati won 11 of its last 14 games to make the postseason for the first time since 2013. Checking in on the two teams we find that the Braves led the majors in OPS (.832) and ranked second in team BA (.268), runs (348), HRs (103) and slugging (.483). First baseman Freddie Freeman is an MVP candidate after batting .341 with 13 HRs and 53 RBI, while Marcell Ozuna wasn't far behind in batting .338 plus led the NL in HRs (18) and RBI (56). in Stark contrast, the Cincinnati offense ranked last in the majors with a .212 average this season. The Reds were seventh with 90 HRs, with Eugenio Suarez hitting 15 (led Cincy with 38 RBI) and Nick Castellanos hitting 14 home runs. However, over Cincy's last 27 games, he homered ONLY four times while batting .170. Pitching has carried the Reds this season and the Reds send their ace Trevor Bauer to the mound, although Atlanta counters with its ace, Max Fried. Bauer posted an NL-best 1.73 ERA along with a 0.79 WHIP (100-17 KW) and .159 BAA. However, he is just 5-4 in his 11 starts, while the Reds were just 6-5. As for Fried, he delivered an outstanding regular season for an Atlanta pitching staff that was decimated by injuries. He made 11 starts, going 7-0 with a 2.25 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and .211 BAA. The Braves went 10-1 in his starts. I noted Atlanta's playoff woes at the top and the Braves CAN'T expect to win this series if they DON'T win Game 1. Fried sustained an ankle injury early in his most recent start on Sep 23 but he's "good to go" for Wednesday. More good news for Atlanta comes with the news that leadoff hitter Ronald Acuna Jr.(14 HRs in 46 games) is expected to be ready for Game 1 despite a wrist issue. It seems like many (most) think Bauer will win the NL';s Cy Young award but I'd vote Fried and will add that over the last two seasons, the Braves are 32-9 (-plus 18.1 units) in his regular season starts. Make that 33-9 after today's contest. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-20 | White Sox v. A's +115 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oak A's at 3:00 ET. MLB's pandemic-shortened regular season was limited to regional play and as the postseason begins, SEVEN of the eight wild-card series involve teams that haven't played any meaningful games against each other since last year (the lone exception being Tampa Bay taking Toronto in an all-AL East matchup). The Oakland A's will host the Chicago White Sox in Game 1 of this best-of-three series and the two teams are not only meeting for the first time this season but also for the first time EVER in postseason play. The White Sox were coming off a 72-89 season in 2019 but at 35-25, earned the first AL wild-card spot (No. 7 seed). Chicago tied Cleveland for second in the AL Central (both teams finished just ONE game back of the first-place Twins) but the Indians won the tiebreaker thanks to an 8-2 head-to-head record. Chicago's playing postseason baseball for the first time since 2008. The A's enter the 2020 season off back-to-back wild card appearances in 2018 and 2019, jumping out to a 12-4 start and NEVER looking back in the AL West. Oakland finished 36-24 (AL's No. 2 seed) while cruising to its first AL West title since 2013, SEVEN games ahead of the second-place Astros. Game 1's starting pitchers are Chicago's Lucas Giolito (4-3, 3.48 ERA) and Oakland's Jesus Luzardo (3-2, 4.12 ERA). Giolito struggled in his rookie season (2018) with a 10-13 record (6.13 ERA and 1.48 WHIP). However, he went 14-9 in 2019, lowering his ERA by more than 2 1/2 runs (3.41) and his WHIP to 1.06. He was named Chicago's Opening Day starter but lasted just 3.2 innings while allowing seven ERs in a 10-5 loss to the Twins. However, he pitched well enough over his next nine starts (2.54 ERA) to have the White Sox go 7-2. Giolito went winless in his last three starts (Chicago was 1-2) due mostly to getting just seven runs of offensive support, allowing eight ERs in 17.2 innings (4.08 ERA). He's 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA in two career starts against the A's. Luzardo made just six relief appearances in 2019, posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP but he pitched a total of just 12 innings. He made 12 appearances in 2020 (nine starts), with the A's going 6-3 in those starts (his ERA was 3.83). Looking a little closer we find that Luzardo has pitched well at home this season, going 3-1 in six starts (team was 5-1) with a 2.40 ERA and a .215 BAA. He shut out three of his six home opponents, the Rangers (8/4), D'backs (8/19) and Giants (9/19), over 17.1 innings. Luzardo pitched three innings of one-hit, shutout relief in last year's loss to the Tampa Bay Rays in the AL wild-card game in his only previous postseason experience. As noted, the A's played in the postseason in each of the last two seasons, while the White Sox are in the playoffs for the first time since 2008. The White Sox were 32-16 and had the best record in the AL on Sep 15 but 'limp in' having lost NINE of their last 12. The A's were a combined 102-60 (.630) at home in 2018 and 2019 but improved their home winning percentage in 2020's shortened season, going 22-10 (.688). There is little margin for error in these best-of-three series and I want the home dog in this Game 1. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-29-20 | Astros v. Twins -156 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -156 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 2:00 ET. The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central in 2019 at 101-61, the team's first 100-win season since 1965. The Twins repeated as NL Central champs in 2020's 60-game schedule, going 36-24 (one game ahead of the White Sox and Indians). Minnesota is the AL's No. 3 seed and gets to play this best-of-three series at home against the AL's No. 6 seed. It's hard to believe but that No. 6 seed is the 29-31 Houston Astros, one of TWO teams in MLB 2020 to make the expanded playoff-field with a losing record (Milwaukee Brewers are the other). With allude respect to Milwaukee, the Brewers didn't enter the current season coming off THREE straight division titles (AL West), while winning 101, 103 and 107 games, respectively from 2017-2019. The Astros made the World Series in both 2017 (won) and 2019 (lost). Game 1 of the series will feature Zach Greinke (3-3, 4.03 ERA) going up against Kenta Maeda (6-1, 2.70 ERA). Greinke won the AL's Cy Young award back in 2009 with KC (16-8, 2.16 ERA) and from 2011-19 he was one of MLB's top starters. However, he's NOT had a good season in 2020 and is 5-9 with a 4.64 ERA in 24 career appearances (20 starts / teams are just 5-15!) against the Twins, including 1-4 with a 5.14 ERA in seven starts at Target Field. He also has NEVER had much success in the postseason. He's made 16 postseason starts, going 3-6 with a 4.21 ERA, which is 0.84 higher than his career ERA of 3.37 in the regular season. Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games) but was moved to the bullpen last season. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. The Twins placed him in the starting rotation right away and Maeda has made that decision look VERY good, as the Twins are 8-3 in his starts and he owns a 0.75 WHIP (MLB-best!) and .168 BAA to go along with his solid 2.70 ERA. Yes, the Twins have lost 16 straight postseasons and you may have heard that Houston manager Dusty Baker has become the first manager in baseball history to lead FIVE different teams to the postseason. Baker had previously taken the Giants (1997, 2000, 2002), Cubs (2003), Reds (2010, 2012, 2013), and Nationals (2016, 2017) the playoffs. Here' what has been left out regarding Baker's postseason record. His 2002 Giants led the Angels 3-2 in the World Series and were up 5-0 in Game 6 entering the bottom of the 7th. However, the Angels would rally for a 6-5 win and capture the World Series in Game 7. Baker moved to the Cubs in 2003 and in the NLCS vs Miami, led 3-1 before losing THREE in row. Game 6 was the infamous "Steve Bartman game," when the Marlins scored EIGHT runs in the top of the 8th inning to erase a 3-0 deficit. One cue, Baker's Cubs lost Game 7. Since that debacle, Baker's teams have lost all FOUR postseason series he's managed in, plus lost one "winner-take-all" wild card game. You really want to back a Baker-coached team? Getting down to brass tacks, after being MLB's best road team the previous three seasons from 2017-19 (157-86, .646), the Astros went a deplorable 9-23 (.281) on the road in 2020. They compiled a 5.66 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Twins were a MLB-best 24-7 (.774) at home, producing a 2.89 team ERA. Here's the clincher. Greinke's made five road starts in 2020 and the Astros have lost ALL five, while Maeda has made five home starts, with the Twins winning ALL five (1.91 ERA / .109 BAA). That's 100% against and for! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-28-20 | Chiefs +3.5 v. Ravens | Top | 34-20 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET. Is tonight's Kansas City/Baltimore game a preview of this season's AFC championship game? Maybe so, but note it was the one everyone expected to see last January. However, the Ravens (-10) were upset 28-12 at home by the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round and advanced to the AFC championship game where they lost 35-24 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Both teams have opened 2-0 in 2020 and while the Chiefs come in as the defending champs, the Ravens will enter this game on a 14-game regular season winning streak, with an average winning margin of 18.8 PPG! It pits 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes against 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson. Mahomes led the Chiefs to their first NFL championship since 1970 last season and was the Super Bowl MVP, while Jackson (36-6 TD/INT ratio and 113.3 QB rating) guided the Ravens to a 14-2 regular-season record, set the league mark for yards rushing by a QB (1,206 yards / 6.9 YPA / 7 TDs) and directed the most prolific running attack in NFL history (206.0 YPG) . Are you ready for some football? The Chiefs were dominant in their season opener, a 34-20 home win over Houston. Mahomes passed for a modest 211 yards but threw three TD passes (zero INTs) for a QB rating of 123.3, while rookie RB Edwards-Helaire ran for 138 yards and a TD. However, the Chiefs were lucky to escape with a win at LA vs the Chargers in Week 2, needing PK Harrison Butker's two field goals of 58 yards last week in an overtime win. Mahomes had 302 yards passing (2 TDs / 0 INTs) but Edwards-Helaire had only 38 yards rushing on 10 carries. The KC defense has allowed 419.5 YPG but just 20 points in each win. It's hard to say a team off a 14-2 year has something to prove this season but that's the case with the Ravens. They routed the Browns 38-6 in Week 1 and then had little trouble with the Texans in Week 2, winning 33-16. Jackson has completed 77.6% of his passes for 479 yards with four TDs, no INTS and a QB rating of 134.6. He's added 99 yards rushing but no TDs) for a running game averaging 170.5 PPG on 5.1 YPC. Three RBs are sharing carries, Edwards has 90 yards (6.4 YPC) with one TD, Ingram 84 yards (4.4 YPC) with one TD and rookie Dobbins has 70 yards (9.8 YPC) with two TDs. The Baltimore D is not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG) last season and through two games of 2020, ranked T-2 in yards allowed (305.0 YPG) and 1st in points allowed (11:0 PPG). The Ravens have been waiting since 2017 to have a Monday night game at home but now that they got one, they'll be forced to play without the backing of their fans (zero in attendance because of the pandemic). These teams met in Week 3 last season, as the Chiefs built a 23-6 halftime lead, before holding off a late Baltimore comeback (KC won, 33-28). The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games but the Chiefs will bring an 11-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (eight straight in the regular season / 3-0 playoff run last year) and while Jackson 21-3 as a starter during the regular season, with TWO of those losses coming against Kansas City. This is NOT a playoff game but it sure has that kind of atmosphere. Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason (13-2 TD/INT ratio and 106.6 QB rating), while Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason, completing 51.1% with three TDs and three INTs for a 68.3 QB rating. Take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | Top | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 32 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET. The Saints are back in primetime for teh second straight week, as they welcome the 2-0 Packers to New Orleans for Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Packers own two impressive wins, 43 34 at Minnesota (game was not as close as the final score) and 42-12 at home over the Lions. The Saints opened with a 34-23 home win over TB 12 and the Bucs in Week 1 but then lost by almost that exact same score (34-24) at Las Vegas on MNF to the Raiders in Week 2. BOTH teams are coming off 13-3 seasons in 2019. Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th). Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. The Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. Rodgers has thrown for 604 yards in the two wins with six TDPs and zero INTs (119.4 QB rating). Jones looks to be even better this season, running for 234 yards on 6.9 YPC with three TDs, while catching eight passes with another TD. Adams is a possession receiver with 17 catches and two TDs, while Valedes-Scantling ( 7catches / 22.9 YPC) and Lazard ( 7 catches / 15.4 YPC) have helped Rodgers stretch the field. Brees had two TDs passes in Week 1 (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. Brees threw for 312 yards on MNF but a 17-7 first-half lead was wiped away as the Raiders outscored teh Saints 27-7 from the last second quarter through the end of the game. The good news was that Kamara ran for 95 yards and caught NINE passes. The bad news is that Thomas sat out the Saints' loss in Las Vegas with an ankle sprain and did not take the field when the Saints returned to practice on Thursday. Brees can always rely on TE Cook but he'll need the veteran Sanders plus two young WRs (Smith and Harris) to step up. Green Bay WR receiver Davante Adams left last Sunday's victory over Detroit with a hamstring injury. Rodgers will need him close to 100 percent in this one. Yes, Green Bay is 2-0 but its wins are over a pair of 0-2 teams in the Vikings and Lions, who are a combined 0-4 ATS to open the 2020 season. The Saints enter this contest on a 12-4 (75%) ATS run over their last 16 regular season games. The Saints own an excellent rush D (3.3 YPC) and slowing down Jones could be the key to a victory. I had the Saints in Week 1, went against them in Week 2 with the Raiders and I'm now back "on" them here vs The Pack. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos OVER 42.5 | Top | 28-10 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Featured Sunday Total of the Week is on TB/Den Over at 4:25 ET. Obviously, one of the NFL's biggest storylines entering the 2020 season (not counting COVID-19) was Tom Brady leaving New England (after some moderate success) and landing in Tampa Bay with the Bucs. Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp were that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He also brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). However, Brady's been pretty mediocre, throwing for just 456 yards after two games with as many INTs (three) as TD passes (three). Going back to last season, Brady enters this contest having thrown interceptions in each of his last four starts, three of them being Pick-6s! As for Gronk, it would be a HUGE understatement to say he is off to a slow start in Tampa. He has just two catches for 11 yards and was held without a catch last week for just the FIFTH time in his 117-game career. The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013. The Broncos were outplayed by Tennessee in Week 1 but lost just 16-14 when Gostkowski missed three FGs and an extra-point. In Week 2 at Pittsburgh, Drew Lock went down with a shoulder) injury but Jeff Driskel (256 passing yards with two TDs and one INT) led an unlikely comeback despite taking six sacks and absorbing 17 hits. Denver trailed by 14 points at halftime and by 12 in the fourth quarter but was 15 yards away from a stunning upset before Edmunds came off the edge and sent Driskel to the turf one last time. Looking at this contest, I see a much higher scoring game than the total indicates. Brady OVERDUE for a "big game," as his Gronk. As for RB Leonard Fournette, who signed with the Bucs earlier this month, he ran for 103 yards in Week 2 (on 8.6 YPC) with two TDs. Fournette may also just remember running for 225 yards on 29 carries in the Jaguars' 26-24 win at Denver a year ago. Yes, Jeff Driskel gets his first start for Denver and is seeking just his SECOND career win, which would be only 248 fewer than Brady. Fans are absent (for the most part) in 2020 but the Broncos may have a big home-field edge with teams coming in even later and having no time to adjust to the elevation. Denver is on a 9-2-1 ATS a home dog, so don't be surprised if they are in this all the way. What's more, Driskel is going against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed 28.1 PPG. last season plus its pass D allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs. Tampa's D may be slightly better than last year's unit but not MUCH better. I expect BOTH Brady AND Driskel to play well. This one is Goin' OVER! Good luck...Larr | |||||||
09-27-20 | Reds v. Twins -122 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -122 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout is on the Min Twins at 3:10 ET The Twins won the AL Central title last season with a 101-61 record (franchise's first 100-win season since 1965) and can secure their second consecutive divisional title with a home win on Sunday over the Reds. 36-23 Minnesota can also claim the NL Central's top spot with a loss by the Chicago White Sox (35-24) to the Chicago Cubs. Cincinnati, clinched its first postseason berth since 2013 with a 7-2 victory in Friday's series opener and are likely headed to Atlanta to play the Braves in the wild-card series starting Wednesday. Reds manager David Bell debated whether to bring Cy Young candidate Trevor Bauer (NL-best 1.73 ERA) back on three day's rest but instead will start Sonny Gray (5-3, 3.73 ERA). In the end, he felt it was more important to line up his postseason pitching rotation rather than to potentially move up in the National League seeding. The Twins will counter with veteran Rich Hill (2-2, 3.27 ERA). Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yankees going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray was one of the best pitchers in the majors through the end of August, going 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA, a 55-15 KW ratio and a BAA of just .180. However, he got 'blown up' in his first two starts of September vs St Louis and the Chicago Cubs, allowing 11 runs, 11 hits, and six walks, while striking out five in just four innings. Only three days after his Sep 10 start, he was placed on the injured list with a mid-back strain. He returned to the mound Tuesday and looked just fine. He pitched five innings and allowed just one run but the Reds wasted his solid effort, never scoring again after taking a 2-0 first-inning lead in a 3-2 loss. Hill's been "around the block," as this is his 16th season. He owns a 67-44 career record with a 3.80 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. He had a pretty good stint with the Dodgers from 2016-19, going 30-16 with his ERAs ranging from 1.83-to-3.66 and his WHIPs from 0.79-to-1.13. He battled arm woes for most of 2019 and he signed a one-year deal with Minnesota in the offseason. He was outstanding in his Minnesota debut back on July 29, holding the visiting Cardinals to two hits and a walk over five innings in a 3-0 victory. He threw 68 pitches, 41 for strikes. However, he then went on the IL for three weeks, He returned on Aug 19 and the Twins lost his next FOUR starts (5.06 ERA). However, his two most recent starts have seen him post a 2.25 ERA over 12 innings with 12 Ks. Gray owns a 5.30 ERA in seven career starts vs the Twins (teams are 2-5), while Hill owns a 5-3 record and 3.34 ERA in 12 career appearances and 10 starts (teams are 6-40 vs the Reds. This game has a postseason atmosphere and Gray's ONLY postseason appearance was back in a 2017 wild card start for Colorado vs Arizona, when he was able to record just FOUR outs while allowing four runs on seven hits. In comparison, Hill has made 12 appearances (11 starts) for the Dodgers in the postseason the last four years, posting a 2.70 ERA over 50 innings with 62 KS. Oh yeah, Minnesota is a major league-best 24-6 at home this season and a Sunday win would give Minnesota the highest single-season home winning percentage (.806) in MLB history. That's my bet! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-27-20 | Rams v. Bills -1 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 117 h 14 m | Show |
My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. The LA Rams have opened 2-0 after an impressive 37-19 road win in Week 2 at Philadelphia. The Rams are back on the East Coast again on Sunday, when they take on the Buffalo Bills, who are also off to a 2-0 start. The duo is part of a group of 11 NFL teams that have opened 2-0 but barring a tie, one team will walk away 3-0 and the other 2-1 after Sunday's contest. On the coaching sidelines, it will be a battle of wits between two Seans. Sean McVay got his first NFL head coaching gig with the Rams when he was hired in January of 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach in the NFL's modern era, at the age of 30 years, 354 days. He immediately led the Rams to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth in 2017 and then went 13-3 in 2018, taking the Rams all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year's 9-7 finish kept LA out of the playoffs but a 3-0 start would sure be 'sweet,' considering the Rams play in the brutally tough NFC West (Arz and Sea are also 2-0 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 1-1). The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games. Buffalo's Sean is Mr McDermott, who was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East? Buffalo's 2-0 start surely has fans taking notice. The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley to WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. However, as noted, the Rams are 2-0. QB Jared Goff was the overall No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft and he's surely NOT disappointed. He was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys in Week 1 (completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT), but threw for 270 yards with three TDs and zero INTs vs Philly (142.0 QB rating). RB Todd Gurley was the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade but was released and signed with the Falcons. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but second-year pro Darrell Henderson led vs Philly with 81 yards (6.8 YPC) with one TD. Despite the team's defensive losses, the Rams held the Cowboys to just three points in the second half on SIX possessions and then Philly to just 19 points, while forcing three TOs. Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen was part of the 2017 NFL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round (he was selected 7th, overall). He has not been a prolific passer in his first two seasons but he's a real leader and has produced. Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen has made excellent strides and became just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. The 2020 season looks like a "breakout" one for the former Wyoming Cowboy. He threw for 312 yards with two TDs and no INTs in a 27-17 Week 1 win over the Jets and followed with a career-high 417 passing yards vs the Dolphins in Week 2, with a career-best four TDs and again, zero INTs (QB rating of 147.0). The addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota, is a big deal. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He had eight catches for 153 yards a TD last week (had eight catches for just 86 yards in Week 1) and joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs in 2019) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs in 2019). Buffalo had the Jets down 27-10 before a TD with under a minute to go made it a 27-17 final. Last week, it was 31-20 Buffalo, before the Dolphins got the backdoor cover with another TD with under a minute to go. The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games (including playoff games) but this is a tough spot for LA, back on the East Coast for a second straight week. I really like this Buffalo team and after B2B games against AFC foes, the Bills draw their first NFC opponent of the season. That's NOT bad news, as the Bills are on a current 11-5-1 ATS run vs NFC opponents. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-27-20 | Texans +4.5 v. Steelers | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET. Big Ben missed all but SIX quarters of the 2019 season with an elbow injury that required surgery. Pittsburgh waa forced to use two QBs, Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, who had never appeared in an NFL game. The Pittsburgh offense scored only 13 offensive TDs in the team's final 10 games and were the only NFL team to NOT score 30 points in any game. Big Ben is back healthy in 2020 and Pittsburgh has opened 2-0. While the Steelers failed to make the playoffs for a second straight season in 2019, the Houston Texans went 10-6 in winning the AFC South for the FOURTH time in the last five seasons. The Texans beat the Buffalo Bills in a wild card game and then jumped out to a 24-0 lead over the KC Chiefs in the Divisional Round, before the Mahomes-led Chiefs came back to win 51-31. The Texans and Titans were expected to go head to-head this season in the AFC South but while Tennessee has opened 2-0, Houston has started 0-2. QB Deshaun Watson signed 4 a four-year, $177 million contract extension with the Texans on September 5 but has done little in the first two losses. He's thrown for 528 yards with two TDs and two INTs for a QB rating of 87.1. RB David Johnson showed signs of returning to previous form in Week 1 (77 yards on 7.0 YPC) but was held to just 34 yards on 11 carries (3.4 YPC) in Week 2. WR DeAndre Hopkins is gone (104 catches with seven TDs last season) but Watson still has an excellent set of receivers in WRs Cooks, Fuller and Cobb plus TEs Akins and Fells. Defensively, Houston has struggled, allowing 33.5 PPG. However, that may just have something to do with having had to face KC and Baltimore in the season's first two weeks (more later). Big Ben has returned with vengeance, completing 68.5% for 540 yards with five TDs and one INT (107.1 QB rating). RB Snell was the star in Week 1 (113 yards) but Connor was healthier by Week 2 and he was the featured back with 106 yards. Pittsburgh was able to go "Back to Future" with its defense in 2019, reminding some of the old "Steel Curtain!" Pittsburgh was fifth in total yards allowed in 2019 (304.1 YPG) and was T-5th in points allowed (18.9 PPG). The team's 20 INTs was 2nd-best in the NFL and its 54 sacks ranked 1st. Pittsburgh has opened the current season allowing 18.5 PPG (T-5th) on 305.0 YPG (T-2nd), including allowing 66.5 YPG rushing to rank 1st. However, one MUST consider the fact that the Steelers are 2-0 with wins over the Giants and Broncos, who are BOTH 0-2. Meanwhile, the Texans have faced the NFL's two-best teams in 2020, the defending champion Chiefs and the Ravens, who were the NFL's best regular season team with a 14-2 record last season. Don't be too quick to 'dish' Watson, as he's the first player to reach 10,000 yards passing (10,244) and 1,000 yards rushing (1,277) through his first 40 games in NFL history (not bad, huh?). Watson isn't exactly ready to panic with his team potentially facing its second 0-3 start in three years. "That's all we can do is just put our head down and grind," Watson said. "Just work and try to do what we do and see what the outcome comes like. Of course, we don't want to be 0-3, but that's not the main thing that's on our minds right now." I expect an outright Houston win but that doesn't mean I'm NOT taking the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-20 | NC State v. Virginia Tech -6.5 | Top | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 59 h 35 m | Show |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Va Tech at 8:00 ET. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. I noted last week in taking NC St over Wake Forest that the Wolfpack returned TEN starters on offense, so we should expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve in 2020, as NC ST had averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak. Talk about 'hitting the nail on the head!' NC St won 45-42, rolling up 463 yards. The Wolfpack travel to Blacksburg, Va Saturday night to face Va Tech, which will be playing its first game of the 2020 season. Justin Fuente used back-to-back seasons of 10-3 and 9-3 (2014 and 2015) at Memphis to land the Va Tech job on November 29, 2015 He replaced the retiring Frank Beamer and in his first season in Blacksburg, Fuente led the Hokies to a 9-3 regular season record and a trip to the ACC Championship, representing the Coastal division, The Hokies defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks 35-24 in the 2016 Belk Bowl, overturning a 24-0 deficit at halftime and winning three consecutive bowl games for the first time in the program's history. Virginia Tech finished the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches Poll. However, while Fuente's led the Hokies to bowl games in each of the last three seasons, Va Tech has lost each one. Looking at NC State's win over Wake, last year's starting QB Devin Leary did not play because he missed too much practice due to COVID-19. Bailey Hockman was the surprise starter and had a decent game, completing 16 of 23 for 191 yards with a TDP and an INT. However, NC St rolled up 45 points due to a rushing attack that ran for 270 yards on 5.5 YPC. RBs Person (99 yards on 7.1 YPC with two TDs) and Knight (97 yards on 8.8 YPC with one TD) led the way. The troubling issue lingering from the win was that NC St's defense allowed Wake forest to score 42 points while gaining 32 FDs (note: Wake scored 13 points, 10 of them late, on 15 FDs against Clemson). Va Tech has to be really anxious to finally play a game and after six- and eight-win season the last two, Fuente's 'star' has dimmed. Seeing a 15-game winning streak over rival Virginia in the team's regular season finale really hurt, as did a 37-30 loss to Kentucky in the Belk Bowl. However, Va Tech has NINE starters back on offense and 10 more on Defense. Longtime defensive coordinator Bud Foster retired after last year's bowl loss but Justin Hamilton takes over and he was a Foster disciple. The team's back-seven is excellent and don't expect NC St to run at will like it did last week, as Va Tech allowed 139.3 YPG on the ground last season (46th in the nation). NC St had SEVEN home games in 2019 but in team's five away games, the Wolfpack D allowed 38.4 PPG, as NC State lost by an average margin of 18.4 points. No. 20 Va Tech wins this one "with room to spare!" Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-20 | Reds v. Twins -124 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Min Twins at 7:10 ET. The 30-28 Cincinnati Reds clinched their first playoff berth since 2013 with Friday night's 7-2 win at Target Field over the Twins. The team stuck around after the final out on the field to celebrate and with good reason. After all, when St Louis beat the Reds 16-2 back on Sep 1, Cincinnati was a mediocre 15-21. However, the Reds have rebounded to go 15-7 since then, including 10-2 in their last 12 games. The series continues tonight at Target Field but it's the Twins, not the Reds, who have MUCH more to play for over the weekend. The 35-23 Twins own a one-game lead over both the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians (both are 34-24) heading into the final two games of the regular-season. Minnesota can clinch home field advantage for the wild-card round by winning one game or Cleveland losing one game but can also claim the AL Central title by finishing with two victories. The White Sox own the tiebreaker over the Twins but Minnesota owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Cleveland or if there should be a three-way tie for first. Tonight's starting pitchers are Luis Castillo (4-5, 2.86) and Michael Pineda (2-0, 3.18 ERA). Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, However, he didn't earn his FIRST win of 2020 until his eighth start of the season. He was 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA through his first seven starts (Reds were 1-6). However, Castillo has been a key figure in Cincinnati's September surge, going 4-0 with a 1.26 ERA and a 33-9 KW ratio in four starts. Pineda made his MLB debut with Seattle back in 2011 but was traded to the Yankees in 2012. Injuries kept him sidelined until 2014 when he made 14 starts, going 5-5 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. However, from 2015-17, he was just 26-26 with an ERA of 4.56. Tommy John surgery sidelined him in July of 2017. Pineda signed a two-year, $10 million contract with the Minnesota Twins in December of 2017 but would not pitch at all in 2018 due to a torn meniscus in his right knee.. He was 11-5 (4.01 ERA) for Minnesota in 2019 but his season was cut short when he received a 60-game suspension for testing positive for hydrochlorothiazide. He returned to the mound on Sep 1, 2020, making his first start since Sep 6 of last season. He hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his four starts this season and comes in off an 8-1 victory over the Cubs in Wrigley Field last Saturday when he allowed one run on four hits over five innings. He's 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 21-4 KW ratio in his four September starts (Twins are 4-0!). Castillo is red-hot but the Reds could be a little drained off last night's playoff-clinching win, while the Twins have the AL's No. 3 seed clearly in their sights! Minnesota suffered just its SIXTH loss in 29 games at Target Field in 2020 (Twins are a MLB-best 23-6 at home) and I'm betting this is the perfect situation for them to grab a VERY important win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-20 | Phillies +101 v. Rays | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Phi Phillies at 7:07 ET. The Phillies lost 6-4 Friday night 6-4 at Tropicana Field to the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays have already clinched the AL East but can clinch the AL's overall No. 1 seed with a win here. Philadelphia can still make the playoffs but the Phillies need help. Here's what Philly knows for sure. Friday's loss combined with Miami's 4-3 win over the Yankees in New York in 10 innings meant the 28-30 Phillies can only finish tied with the 30-28 Marlins, who hold the tiebreaker edge and are guaranteed second place and a playoff spot for the first time since 2003. The Phillies can't finish any better than third in the NL East this season and there is just ONE wild card spot left in the NL. Either the 29-27 Cards or 28-30 Brewers will nail down the No. 2 spot in the NL Central, so the Phillies are 'fighting' the loser of that race plus the 29-29 Giants for that final wild card spot. Tonight's pitching matchup features Philly's Zack Wheeler (4-1, 2.67 ERA) and Tampa Bay's John Curtiss (3-0, 1.85 ERA).Wheeler signed a $118 million free-agent contract after completing last season with the Mets and was acquired by Philadelphia to pitch in big games like this. Wheeler was 4-0 with a 2.47 ERA through his first eight starts (Phils were 6-2), having allowed two ERs or less in SIX of those eight starts. However, he's 0-1 over his last two starts (team is 0-2) with a 3.46 ERA. He has never faced the Rays The Rays send Curtiss to mound to be used as an "Opener." this is his 17th appearance of 2020 but just his third 'start.' He was used for just 1.1 innings in each of his first two. His ERA (1.85), WHIP (0.86), KW ratio (25-3) and BAA (.202) are ALL impressive numbers but note that he's pitched a total of just 24.1 innings. The Phillies are hardly a favorite to grab that final NL wild card spot but "hope springs eternal" heading into this contest. Is Wheeler really the "big time" starter the Phillies think he is? I'm NOT sure about that but I do expect him to pitch VERY well here. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-20 | Brewers v. Cardinals +108 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Playoff Hopefuls Showdown in on the StL Cardinals at 7:07 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers and the St Louis Cardinals split a Friday doubleheader, with the Brewers winning the first game 3-0 and the Cardinals winning the nightcap 9-1. The 28-30 Brewers are on the brink of elimination in the NL wild-card race and have quite frankly been playing catch up all season, since they have never reached the high side of .500. They must now win their last two games to have any chance of participating in postseason baseball. Meanwhile, the 29-27 Cardinals are still in the hunt for the NL Central's second-place playoff slot. Taking the mound will be Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff (2-5, 3.43 ERA) and St Louis' Adam Wainwright (5-2, 3.05 ERA). Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note is, the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. The Brewers are just 5-7 in Woodruff's 12 starts in 2020, despite the fact that he's allowed three ERs or less in 11 of those 12 starts. St Louis converted Wainwright to a starter in 2007 and over the next seven seasons, he twice won 20 games and two other times won 19 games. During those four seasons, (2009, '10, '13 and '14), he twice finished second in the Cy Young voting and twice finished third. Injuries limited him to less than 10 starts in TWO of the next four years (2015-18) but at 37, he made 31 starts in 2019. He won five decisions last September to finish with his most victories (14) since winning 20 in 2014. Wainwright drew the season's second start on the strength of the throwing program he maintained during the pandemic shutdown. Wainwright's been excellent this season, allowing three ERs or less in EIGHT of his nine starts. He's pitched into the sixth inning in all but one start, the exception being a five-inning effort in a doubleheader game (7 innings). Wainwright is 18-10 with a 2.45 ERA in 43 career appearances against the Brewers, including 36 starts (Cards are 24-12). These two squared off in the first half of a doubleheader back on Sep 16, a game the Cards won 4-2, as Wainwright pitched ALL seven innings, allowing two runs with a KW ratio of 9-1. Wainwright's had a very good career and here at 39-years-old, he's posted the lowest BBA of his career (2.12), 40 points lower than his career average of .252! Wainwright wants another postseason run and increases the Cards' chances by winning here. Bye-Bye Brewers! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-20 | Duke v. Virginia -5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 119 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Virginia at 4:00 ET David Cutcliffe arrived at Duke for the 2008 season (from Ole Miss) but the team had a losing record his first five seasons, although Duke did go 6-6 in 2012 but lost its bowl game to end 6-7. However, the Blue Devils would put together FIVE winnings season the next six years, going to a bowl game in all five winning seasons. Duke was just 5-7 last season but with three home games to open the 2020 season (MTSU, Elon and Charlotte). The Blue Devils were counting a 3-0 start to propel them to a winning season. So much for that, as COVID-19 has scrambled so many schools' schedules. Duke instead opened at then-No. 10 Notre Dame and lost 27-13 (not bad as 3-TD dog) but last week's 26-6 home loss to BC was not 'pretty.' The Blue Devils are back on the road this Saturday at ACC rival Virginia, which will be playing its first game of 2020. Bronco Mendenhall came to UVa after 11 seasons at BYU where he led the Cougars to a bowl game each season. He took over in 2016 and the Cavs finished 2-10 (so much for his 11-year bowl streak). However, he's led the Cavs to three straight bowl games from 2017-19 and last season, won the school's first-ever ACC Coastal title plus ended an embarrassing 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with a 39-30 victory. Duke's new starting QB, Chase Brice (a Clemson transfer), has so far flopped. He averaged 238.0 YPG passing but in 79 attempts, has yet to throw a TD pass (has two INTs). It sure doesn't help him that Duke's running game looks pretty sad, averaging 109.5 YPG on 3.7 YPC. The Notre Dame loss seemed like a positive, until Duke had five TOs against BC, including FOUR inside the BC red zone. Without a game under its belt, Virginia is somewhat of a mystery. Replacing QB Perkins (3,538 passing yards with 22 TDs and 769 rushing yards with 11 TDs) will not be easy. We'll see who gets the start. The running game should be fine, as Wayne Taulapapa may have had just 473 yards but he's a tough runner who scored 12 TDs. More importantly, the OL returns all five starters, who are also seniors. The defense loses three key players but NINE starters are back, plus 15 returning players made at least one start in 2019. Mendenhall is a quality coach and his team has put together back-to-back winning seasons while going 12-1 SU at home (7-0 last season). In his four-year rivalry with Cutcliffe, he's 4-0 SU and ATS with an average winning margin of 17.3 PPG. Lay the small number. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-20 | Tulane v. Southern Miss OVER 54.5 | Top | 66-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Month is on Tulane/Southern Miss Over at 2:30 ET. Willie Fritz arrived in New Orleans to take over at Tulane for the 2016 season. The Green Wave would go 4-8 and 5-7 in his first two seasons but they would then go 6-6 and 6-6 in 2018 and 2019's regular season, capping each one off with a bowl win. It marks the first time Tulane has posted back-to-back winning seasons in 20 years. QB Justin McMillan could be erratic but he passed for 2,444 yards (17 TDs / 10 INTs) and was the team's leading rusher with 745 yards (4.4 YPC / 12 TDs). The bottom line is this, he led Tulane to 33.1 PPG on 449.3 YPG, as both totals rank third-best in school history for a single season. New QB Keon Howard is off to a poor start, completing just 43.6% for 299 yards without a TD and one INT in Tulane's 1-1 start. The Good news on offense has been redshirt freshman Tyler Spears running for 224 yards on 7.7 YPC. Tulane's first game saw them win 27-24 at South Alabama but then lose last Saturday at home to Navy. Tulane led that game 24-0 at the half, before Navy scored the game's final 27 points with the game-winning 33 -yard FG coming at 0:00! Southern Miss opened its season at home back on Sep 3 against South Alabama and the Golden Eagles lost 32-21 as almost two-TD favorites. It was no fluke, as the Jaguars ran up 526 years (363 passing / 163 rushing), as South Alabama snapped a 15-game road losing streak (last won 19-8 at Troy back on 10/11/17). Jay Hopson began his fifth season in Hattiesburg and he had produced a winning season in each of his first four, three times getting Southern Miss to a bowl game (team was 6-5 in 2018 and fell short of bowl-eligibility due to a canceled game with App St due to a hurricane). However, he resigned following the South Alabama loss. Interim head coach Scotty Walden was previously co-OC and is now the youngest head coach in the FBS at 30 years old. The Golden Eagles had seemingly bounced back with strong effort last week at home vs La Tech, as they led 27-10 towards the end of the third quarter. However, La Tech drove 74 yards in 17 plays to score the winning TD with 14 seconds to go, stealing a 31-30 win. QB Jack Abraham has been very good, completing 71.9 percent of his passes for 578 yards with three TDs and just one INT. However, the running game is non-existent, averaging 112.0 YPG on 3.3 YPC. The Southern Miss defense has allowed 31.5 PPG on YPG 453.5 YPG. These two schools met in last season's Armed Forces Bowl, with Tulane winning 30-13. Sure, Southern Miss is playing with revenge but it' hard to trust this year's team at the moment. Then again, Tulane clearly needs to bounce-back from its disastrous second-half collapse against Navy. The Southern Miss defense is clearly vulnerable and Tulane QB Howard is a Southern Miss transfer, who HAS to be looking forward to playing against his former team. As noted above, Southern Miss QB Abraham has looked sharp and I'm expecting a high-scoring game. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-20 | Iowa State -2.5 v. TCU | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show |
My CFB 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Iowa St at 1:30 ET. Toledo made Matt Campbell its permanent head coach at the end of 2011, making him the youngest head coach in the FBS at 32-years-old. He coached four full seasons at Toledo (2012–201), going 35–15. The 2015 team peaked at No. 20 in the AP Poll. He left Toledo before its bowl game in 2015 and took the Iowa St job. His first team went 3-9 but the last three seasons (2017-19) he's taken the Cyclones to three straight bowl games. Iowa St was ranked 23rd in the AP's preseason poll but lost its season-opener on Sep 12, 31-14 to ULL at home, as almost a two-TD favorite. It marked ULL's first-ever win over a top-25 opponent on the road (had been 0-26 against ranked foes away from home). The school's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. The Cyclones have not played since and now play at TCU on Saturday in their Big 12 opener. This contest is not just TCU's conference opener but it's the Horned Frogs' FIRST game of 2020. TCU head coach Gary Patterson took over at TCU when Dennis Franchione left to take the Alabama job (that' didn't go well but it's a story for another day) and in his 19 full seasons, he's led TCU to 15 winning seasons and 16 bowls (10-6). TCU's 'glory years' were 2008-11, when the school went 45-5 over four seasons. TCU finished 7th, 6th, 2nd and 14th in the final AP rankings during that stretch (2010 team went 13-0, including a 21-18 Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin). However, TCU enters 2020 off a 7-6 record in 2018 and a 5-7 record in 2019. TCU has just nine games on its current schedule, so it's almost a sure thing that the Horned Frogs will fail to reach eight wins for a third straight year. That hasn't happened since the 1998 team went 8-4 to end a drought of 14 seasons the school failed to reach eight wins (OK, maybe the team gets a 'pass' this year, due to COVID-19). ISU's Brock Purdy has already set 21 school records in just two seasons at QB. He fought injuries all season but still led the Big 12 in passing (306.3 YPG), while throwing 27 TDs and just nine INTs. Just five starters return on offense but a key returnee is Breece Hall, who averaged 101.6 YPG on the ground with nine TDs in his eight starts as a freshman. ISU may have the best (deepest?) group of TEs in CFB, as the trio of Kolar, Allen and Chase accounted for 75 catches and 10 TDs. The defense returns NINE starters and don't be fooled by that loss to ULL. The Ragin' Cajuns scored on an 85 KO return and an 83-yard punt return plus added a 78-yard TD pass that accounted for 29% of its 276 total yards. We haven't seen TCU play yet but we know that the offense returns only THREE starters, losing four of five OL. QB Max Duggan started the final 10 games for TCU last season but finished with modest totals of 2,007 passing yards and 15 TDs. The defense was first in the Big 12 in yards allowed (336.9 YPG) and 4th in points allowed (26.4 PPG) but again, only FOUR full-time starters are back. With ISU's recent surge and TCU's recent demise, the Cyclones have won TWO of the last three meetings (2017-19), including a 49-24 romp in Ames last season, when they ran up 436 yards on a much better defense than TCU will field here in 2020. Purdy had an 'ugly' effort vs ULL (16 of 35 for 145 yards with no TDs and one INT) but I feel strongly he'll bounce back here. What's more, TCU's starting QB Max Duggan has been battling a heart condition that led to him having a procedure back in mid-August to correct it. He was cleared to play on Monday but who knows? His likely replacement would be sophomore Matthew Downing, who has not taken a snap since 2018 and has 10 career pass attempts. ISU is not often a road favorite but the last three seasons under Campbell, the Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in that role. HUGE play on Iowa St. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-26-20 | Louisville +3 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 24 h 44 m | Show |
My 9* Eye-Opener is on Louisville at 12 noon ET. The only game played between ranked opponents prior to this Saturday (Sep 26) was last Saturday's 37-24 win by No. 17 Mia-Fl over No. 18 Louisville. There are three top-25 matchups on Sep 26, including No. 21 Pitt hosting No. 24 Louisville. The Panthers (2-0, 1-0 ACC) get their third straight home game to open the season, after wins over Austin Peay (55-0) and Syracuse (21-10). The Cardinals (1-1, 0-1 ACC) hope to 'right the ship' after a 47-34 loss at home to Miami. This marks Louisville's first road game of 2020. Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinal were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. Louisville allowed three TDs in that contest but the Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western Ky's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. However, the Louisville D was not up to the challenge vs Miami, which rolled up 4763 yards. That said, the Louisville offense put up 30-plus points for the second straight game, with 516 yards (and 29 FDs) against a strong Miami defense. QB Malik Cunningham has thrown for 650 yards with six TDs and just two INTs, while the running game has averaged 176.5 YPG (Hawkins has 235 yards on 5.1 YPC). Outstanding WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards vs Western Ky and then added eight receptions for 114 yards with two TDs vs Miami. Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi is in his sixth season and has led the school to a modest 38-29 record (includes TY's two wins. He's taken Pitt to a bowl in four of his first five seasons but Pitt has lost THREE of the four). Senior QB Kenny Pickett is in his third year as the starter but he's throw for only 492 yards with three TDs and one INT in the team's 2-0 start. he gets little help from his running game, which averages 137.0 YPG on 3.5 YPC. The Panthers defense has shined through two wins, allowing 154.0 YPG (third-best in the nation), including only 26 rushing yards per game, giving them the top-ranked rushing defense in the nation. That said, Pitt's first two opponents have been FCS Austin Peay and Syracuse, which has scored a total of just 16 points in opening 0-2.Louisville's offense has great balance (see above) and is averaging 32.5 PPG on 501.5 PPG to open its season. I'm a big fan of Satterfield and the Panthers are a poor 8-14-1 (40%) ATS as a home favorite under Narduzzi. In QB Cunningham, RB Hawkins and WR Atwell, Louisville owns the three-best offensive players in the game. Pitt last started a season 3-0 back in 2014 and I don't the Panthers open 3-0 this season. I'm calling for an OUTRIGHT Louisville win but YES, I'll take the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-25-20 | Reds v. Twins -140 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 9* play is on the Min Twins at 8:10 ET. The Cincinnati Reds were just in 2019 but 75-87 (16 games out of first in the NL Central) but they enter Friday having won NINE of 11. At 28-28, Cincy is in a dogfight for both second place in the National League Central and/or a wild-card berth. Had the season ended after their 6-1 victory over visiting Milwaukee on Wednesday night, the Reds would have been the No. 8 seed heading to Los Angeles to open their best-of-three wild-card series with the Dodgers on Wednesday. The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central title in 2019 with a 101-61 record, the franchise's first 100-win season since the 1965 season (lost a seven-game World Series to the Dodgers and Sandy Koufax). The Twins have been a little streaky in 2020 but clinched a playoff berth for the second year in a row along with securing the team's third postseason appearance in the last four years with an 8-1 Saturday win at the Cubs. 35-22 Minnesota moved a half-game ahead of the Chicago White Sox for first place in the AL Central with its fourth straight win, 7-6, over visiting Detroit on Wednesday night. While the Twins had an off day yesterday, their advantage stretched to a full game after Chicago lost at Cleveland on Thursday. Taking the mound tonight will be Cincy's Tyler Mahle (2-2, 3.57 ERA), while Minnesota counters with Jose Berrios (5-3, 3.72 ERA). Mahle was AWFUL in 2019, going 2-10 with a 5.14 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and .266 BAA. He's been MUCH better in 2020's nine appearances (eight starts). His ERA is down to 3.57, his WHIP to 1.10 and his BAA is down 75 points to .191. Mahle is 2-1 with a 3.10 ERA in his last five starts (Reds are 4-1). Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, his 2020 season has been up-and-down. However, he is 3-0 with a 2.05 ERA in four September starts (team is 3-1) with 22 strikeouts and six walks in 22 innings. The "clincher" is the fact that Minnesota owns a major league best 23-5 home record and Berrios' five home starts, he owns a 2.67 ERA and .168 BAA. What's more, the Twins are looking to secure a top-four seed so they can open their AL wild-card series Tuesday at Target Field. Twins win! Twins win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-25-20 | Phillies v. Rays -149 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 7 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* play is on the TB Rays at 6:40 ET. The Rays clinched their third division title in franchise history with Wednesday's 8-5 win over the Mets at Citi Field. The AL East crown was the first for Tampa Bay since its 96-win 2010 campaign. The team also won it in 2008, a season in which the Rays advanced to the World Series against the Phillies But lost in five games. Those Philadelphia Phillies come to Tropicana Field for a three-game weekend series. The Phillies were 27-25 after taking the first three of a four-game home series against the Blue Jays but a 6-3 Sunday loss stretched into a four-game slide when the Phils lost the first three of a four-game series at last-place Washington. Philly did salvage the final game of that series but the team is 28-29 and may have to win all three games here vs the Rays, a team looking to lock down the AL's best record. The Phillies send Vince Velasquez (1-1, 5.46 ERA) to the mound to face the Rays' (2-2, 4.64 ERA). The Phillies are hoping to see a repeat performance from Velasquez, who allowed just one run over six innings in Saturday's 3-1 win over Toronto. However, I think I'll file that one under "wishful thinking!" Entering that contest, Velasquez was still searching for his first win of 2020, in his EIGHTH start of the season. He owned a 6.46 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and .292 BAA over his first seven starts of 2020. Fact was, the Phillies had gone 0-7 in his 2020 starts. Where Saturday's effort came from, I don't know! Morton went 14-7 (2017) and 15-3 (2018) for Houston and then 16-6 for Tampa Bay last season, after signing as a free agent. He has NOT pitched well in eight starts here in 2020 (1.36 WHIP and BAA to go along with his 4.64 ERA) but he seems to be getting back in form, as this his fifth start since returning from the injured list (3.86 ERA and 17-5 KW ratio in four starts). The Phillies 'shot themselves in the foot' in Washington and the Rays are zeroed in on claiming the AL's No. 1 seed. Velasquez will NOT get in their way. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-24-20 | A's +190 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Oak A's at 9:40 ET. The Dodgers have won the NL West for the EIGHTH consecutive season and also have clinched the NL's No. 1 seed. LA hosts the Oakland A's Thursday night in the "rubber" game of this series, before welcoming the Angels to Dodger Stadium over the weekend for a three-game, season-ending series. The 34-21 A's have clinched the AL West title (first time since 2013) but still have an outside shot at catching the TB Rays for the AL's top record (sit two games back with four left / Rays have just 3 remaining games). Clinching the AL's second-best record. Thursday's pitching matchup will feature Oakland's Mike Fiers (6-2, 4.67) and LA's Walker Buehler (1-0, 3.86 ERA). I've regularly played on Fiers this season and why not? It's true that his overall numbers are off in 2020 (1.39 WHIP and .278 BAA to go along with his 4.67 ERA), after he set career highs in wins (15), starts (33) and innings pitched (184.2) last year in his first full season in Oakland. However, the A's are 8-2 in his 10 starts in 2020.Surprised? You shouldn't be if you've been paying attention. Since Fiers joined Oakland in August of 2018 (from Detroit), he has made 53 regular season starts for the A's, who have gone 39-14 (.736) in those contests! Here's the rub with Buehler. He made 30 starts for LA in 2019, going 14-4 with a 3.26 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .223 BAA. However, he's had a difficult 2020, making only SEVEN starts in which he's been able to earn just ONE win. That said, he has yet to lose and the Dodgers are 6-1 in his starts, as he's posted a 3.86 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and outstanding BAA of .187. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts says he intends to use Clayton Kershaw and Buehler as his starters in next week's opening round of the playoffs but has not named a third starter. The key being, can Buehler prove he is up for the task? Otherwise, the Dodgers will have two playoff rotation vacancies. Buehler last pitched Sep 8 at Arizona, lasting just 2.2 innings and leaving with continued finger issues. Buehler comes off the injured list to make this start, testing the blister on his right index finger that has placed him on the disabled list twice in the last 4 1.2 weeks. It will be his first career outing against Oakland. Meanwhile, getting back to Fiers, he's made six appearances (five starts) against the Dodgers in his career, going 4-1 with a 2.00 ERA. What a great price on Fiers. Take it! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-24-20 | Astros v. Rangers +122 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The Houston Astros' sign-stealing allegations were expected to be front and center in MLB 2020 but COVID-19, forcing an abbreviated 60-game schedule, pushed that narrative to the 'back-burner.' Houston came into the current season off THREE straight 100-win years from 2017-2019 in which it appeared in two World Series (won in 2017 and lost in seven games in 2019), Houston stumbled at the start of 2020 by beginning 7-10 but an eight-game winning streak got them to 15-10. However, the team has gone 13-18 since it was 15-10 and enters Thursday 28-28. The good news for Houston is that the second-place finisher in each division is guaranteed a playoff spot. Houston' currently owns a 2 1/2-game lead over the Angels for second in the AL West with just FOUR games The Astros squandered an opportunity to clinch a postseason berth on Wednesday and put themselves in a position to face a stressful four-game weekend series in Arlington. That said, the Texas Rangers are just 19-37 on the season and if the Astros can't seal down a playoff spot against them, Houston doesn't deserve a playoff appearance. Remember, the Astros can also clinch a spot with some 'help' (losses) by the Angels. The Angels don't play tonight but then cap their season with three games at Dodger Stadium (Dodgers own MLB's best record but have also clinched the NL's No 1 seed, so have little motivation). The Rangers have a brand-new beautiful stadium in Globe Life Field but have gone just 13-13 at home this season (no fans surely didn't help). However, Texas does own a MAJOR pitching advantage in this first game of the series, as Lance Lynn (6-2, 2.53 ERA) takes the mound against Houston rookie Cristian Javier (4-2, 3.33 ERA).Javier has made 11 appearances in 2020, including nine starts. His ERA is 3.55 and his WHIP is 1.01 in those nine starts (team is 6-3) with 42 Ks over 45.2 innings. Javier has shown promise but I don't believe he's up to the task of besting Lance Lynn, especially considering that Houston has scored more than three runs just FOUR times over its last 16 games (over five series)! Lance Lynn is a nine-year veteran, who has logged 1,400-plus innings over 258 appearances (234 starts) with a 104-70 record (3.53 ERA) in his career. Lynn was a solid part of the St Louis rotation from 2012 to 2017. He missed the entire 2016 season due to injury but in those other five seasons, he won 71 games. He signed a FA deal with Minnesota in 2018 and was a flop, going 7-8 with a 5.10 ERA. He was traded during the season to the Yankees and went 3-2 with a 4.14 ERA. Texas took a chance on him in 2019 and he responded by winning a team-high 16 games. Here in 2020, he's been the LONE bright spot of the Texas rotation. However, after allowing just eight ERs in his first seven starts (with an 0.86 WHIP and .156 BAA against to go along with a 1.59 ERA), he struggled in his next two outings. He lost BOTH games, allowing nine ERs over 12 innings (6.75 ERA). However, Lynn has logged seven innings in each of his previous three starts, going 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 21 strikeouts while limiting opposing batters to a .189 average during that stretch. Look closely at Lynn's 2020 numbers, compared to his lifetime ones. His 2.53 ERA is a FULL run lower (3.53), his WHIP is 0.96 (1.29 LT) and his BAA is .184, 59 points better than his LT mark (.243). Lynn went 10-1 (3.50 ERA) at home last season and is 5-1 (1.88 ERA) at home here in 2020, holding opponents to .161 BAA. This small home dog 'BARKS' loudly in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-23-20 | Celtics -3 v. Heat | Top | 109-112 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* NBA Conference Finals Game of the Year is on the Bos Celtics at 8:30 ET. The Celtics dropped the first two games of this best-of-seven Eastern Conference finals against the Heat, each time blowing significant leads (14 points in Game 1 and 17 points in Game 2). However, they then won Game 3 of the series 177-106, while leading wire-to-wire. That contest was on Saturday, meaning that each team has had a three-day break heading into tonight's Game 4. Which team will be best-served by the layoff? Boston is looking to win consecutive playoff games for the first time since the start of its second-round series against the Toronto Raptors, while Miami attempts to respond to just its SECOND loss of the postseason. Knowing that Game 3 would be followed by three days off for scheduling purposes, the Celtics leaned heavily on their stars in Saturday's crucial win. Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Kemba Walker combined for 72 points, each playing more than 40 minutes. What's more, Gordon Hayward took the court for his first game since an ankle injury sustained on Aug 17 sidelined him for more than a month, and played 31 minutes off the bench! The Celtics shot nearly 48.2 percent from the floor and outscored the Heat 60-36 in the paint, leading by as much as 20 points in the fourth quarter. Miami is an NBA-best 10-2 SU & ATS this postseason but as Jimmy Butler opined after the team's Game 3 loss, "I think it gets old, playing from behind consistently. Especially against a great team like Boston and what they bring to the table." Butler is averaging a modest 17.0 PPG through the first three games, as PF Bam Adebayo (22.0 & 10.7) and PG Goran Dragic (21.7 & 4.7 APG) have led the way. However, Miami's won with balance scoring this postseason, as all five starters are scoring in double digits plus rookie PG Herro has averaged 14.8 PPG off the bench. I believed Boston to be the better team at the start of this series, while acknowledging that terrific play of Miami up tom this point. It's "put up or shut up" time from Boston tonight (and for me, by the way)! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-23-20 | Tigers v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -135 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Run Line Game of the Year is on the Min Twins at 7:40 ET. The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central in 2019 at 101-61, the team's first 100-win season since 1965. The current Twins are 34-22, leaving the team just a half-game back of the surprising White Sox in the division. Catching the White Sox would be great but also the Twins can also earn home field advantage in the playoffs' first round by owning the best record of any second place team (Twins currently lead the NY Yankees by 1 1/2 games in that 'race'). Minnesota looks to sweep this brief two-game series against the Tigers, after winning 5-4 on a walk-off victory in 10 innings over the Tigers in Tuesday night's series opener. The Tigers have just five games to go in this COVID-shortened season and at 22-31, will end with a losing record for a FOURTH consecutive seasons. Taking the mound tonight will be Detroit rookie Casey Mize (0-2, 6.08 ERA) going up against Minnesota's Kenta Maeda (5-1, 2.52 ERA). The Tigers selected Mize with the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft back on June 25, 2018. He inked a deal with Detroit that featured a $7.5 million signing bonus. He began 2019 in Lakeland and was the Opening Day starter. After making four starts for Lakeland with an 0.35 ERA, the Tigers promoted Mize to the Erie SeaWolves of the Class AA & in his first start for Erie, he tossed a no-hitter. He began the current season in the minors but was promoted to the major league on August 19. He's made six starts in 2020 and has yet to win (tigers are 2-4 in his starts). He owns a 6.08 ERA and 1.48 WHIP on the season, including two starts vs the Twins in which he has a pair of no-decisions with a 6.43 ERA (more in a bit). Maeda had solid success as a starter in his first two seasons with the Dodgers (won 29 games) but was moved to the bullpen last season. Note that he excelled in relief in last year's run to the World Series but the trade to Minnesota gives Maeda the opportunity to return to a full-time starting role. Maeda made his main mark with the Dodgers in the bullpen in the playoffs. Only former teammate Kenley Jansen has made more postseason appearances over the last four seasons and Washington closer Sean Doolittle is the only pitcher with more than 10 postseason games to have a better ERA than Maeda's bullpen ERA of 1.64. However, Maeda made it clear in an interview with the Minneapolis Star Tribune prior to the season that he prefers a starting role. The Twins placed him in the starting rotation right away and Maeda has made that decision look VERY good. He's 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and .167 BAA in 10 starts (Minnesota is 7-3). Just FOUR of his 10 starts have been at Target Field but he's been AWESOME, going 2-0 (team is 4-0) with 1.33 ERA and .092 BAA! The Twins are a MLB-best 22-5 at home and note that this pitching matchup is a 're-hook' from an Aug 30 game at Detroit. Casey lasted just three innings in that contest (allowed two runs) and while Maeda pitched decently (6 IP / 3 ERs / 8-0 KW ratio), the Minnesota bats remained silent (just five hits) in a 3-2 Detroit win. Maeda takes the mound for his final playoff tune-up in this one with the Twins still VERY much 'alive' to capture the AL Central title plus surely want to hold on to that 1 1/2-game lead on the Yankees in the battle for the AL's No. 4 seed. Twins in a R-O-U-T! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-22-20 | Rays -125 v. Mets | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -125 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
My 9* Interleague Game of the Year is on the TB Rays at 7:10 ET. The NY Yankees were the preseason favorites to represent the AL in the World Series, as well as a strong favorite to win the AL East. However, as the Yankees dealt with significant injuries all season, the 'steady as she goes' Tampa Bay Rays enter tonight's game at Citi Field with the Mets needing just ONE more win to celebrate a division title 10 years in the making. The Rays inched close to the AL East title and delivered another damaging blow to the Mets' postseason hopes Monday night as six Tampa Bay pitchers combined on a four-hitter in a 2-1 victory. That win, coupled with the Yankees' 11-5 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, have the Rays on the verge of winning their third division title in franchise history (have previously won the AL East in 2008 and 2010). Meanwhile, the Mets could win their final SIX and still not make the postseason field. Taking the mound for tonight's contest will be Tampa Bay's Blake Snell (4-1, 3.05 ERA) and New York's Seth Lugo (2-3, 4.34 ERA). Snell won the AL's Cy Young award in 2018, going 21-5 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .178 BAA, He was Tampa's Opening Day starter for the 2019 season and defeated Justin Verlander and the Houston Astros. 5–1. However, he was placed on the injured list on April 16 after breaking a toe on his right foot while moving furniture in his bathroom and missed two starts. He returned but on July 25 it was announced that Snell would undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies from his left elbow. Due to multiple trips to the disabled list, Snell finished with a 6–8 record last season (4.29 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / .241 BAA). Snell's been healthy this season, going 4-1 (3.05 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / .220 BAA) in 10 starts, with the Rays going 7-3 in those starts. Squaring off against Snell will be Seth Lugo, who made all 61 of his 2019 appearances out of the bullpen, posting a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and .192 BAA (he had six saves and 21 holds). He's made 165 career appearances but just 36 starts and this marks his sixth start of 2020. He's lasted a modest 17 innings in his first four starts and while his ERA was 2.65, the Mets are just 1-3. The Mets won his most recent start (9/17 at Philly) 10-6 but they didn't win because of Lugo. In fact, he allowed eight hits and SIX runs while getting just FIVE outs, before the Mets came back for the win. The 24-30 Mets are losing at the worst possible time. They enter Tuesday leading the majors in batting average (.273) and on-base percentage (.351) but they've scored THREE runs or fewer in six of their last nine games, losing all SIX of those games. Monday loss not only ensured the Mets of their third non-winning season in the last four years but it also dropped them three games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the race for the National League's final wild-card spot and with three other teams, the Milwaukee Brewers, San Francisco Giants and Colorado Rockies, to hurdle in between. As noted above, the Mets' playoff hopes are on 'life-support! Meanwhile, expect the Rays to 'party like it's 2010 after this one! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-22-20 | Brewers v. Reds -147 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -147 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET. The Cincinnati Reds beat the Milwaukee Brewers 6-3 last night, moving closer toward a postseason berth. It marked Cincy's EIGHTH win in nine games. Both teams are in the mix for a playoff spot, either as a wild card or by finishing second in the NL Central. Right now, 28-27 (.509) Cincinnati is one game ahead of Milwaukee for third place in the division and is also in a near-dead heat with St Louis (26-25, .510) for second-place in the division, which comes with a playoff guarantee Tonight's pitching matchup features Brett Anderson (3-3, 4.38 ERA) and Sonny Gray (5-3, 3.94 ERA). Anderson had an 'easy go of it' in his most recent start, as the Brewers routed the Cardinals 18-3 last Tuesday. He pitched six solid innings, allowing two ERs on five hits. The Brewers lost his first three stars this season but have gone 4-1 in his last five. That said, he's no more than a journeyman. He's made 196 career appearances (184 starts) with just THREE winning seasons (7-6 in 2010, 10-9 in 2015 and 13-9 in 2019), posting a 62-64 record (4.06 ERA and 1.34 WHIP). Cincy's Gray put together a pair of 14-win seasons for the Oakland A's in 2014 and '15 (2.91 ERA over those two seasons) but struggled the next four seasons from 2016-18 with the A's and Yankees going 26-32 with a 4.59 ERA, before revitalizing his career with the Reds in 2019 (11-8, 2.87 ERA in 175.1 innings, allowing just 122 hits while striking out 205). Gray was one of the best pitchers in the majors through the end of August, going 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA, a 55-15 KW ratio and a BAA of just .180. However, he got 'blown up' in his first two starts of September vs St Louis and the Chicago Cubs, allowing 11 runs, 11 hits, and six walks, while striking out five in just four innings. Only three days after his most recent start on Sep 10, he was placed on the injured list with a mid-back strain. However, he returns to the mound tonight and his back is apparently healthy enough. Gray has made eight career starts against the Brewers, posting a 2.56 ERA, as his teams have gone 6-2. Let me also point out Milwaukee's recent roads (as I did last night in winning 6-3 with the Reds), as Milwaukee enters this contest having won just TWICE in its last 10 road games. No reason to think the Brewers will win here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-21-20 | Astros v. Mariners +136 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 136 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Sea Mariners at 9:10 ET. The Seattle Mariners, who have been displaced the last five games because of poor air quality due to wildfires in the Pacific Northwest, will return to Seattle to play host to the Houston Astros on Monday night. The 23-30 Mariners went 1-4 as the "home" team in San Francisco and San Diego but now get a chance to finish their eight-game homestand at home. Seattle' season will be over at the end of the week but the Mariners have a chance to make the Astros 'sweat a little,' as Houston looks to close in a playoff spot by finishing in second-place in the AL West. Houston owns a FOUR-game lead over Seattle for second place and as each team has just seven games remaining, Houston's 'magic number' is two. Houston's lead over Seattle is actually FIVE games, as the Astros owns the tiebreaker (no time for one-game tiebreakers this season). The starting pitchers are Lance McCullers (3-2, 4.87 ERA) for Houston and Marco Gonzales (6-2, 3.49 ERA). Let me get these three stats out of the way first, before making a case for Gonzales and Seattle. No. 1 is, the Astros are 24-2 against the M's over the past two seasons. No. 2 is that McCullers is 7-2 with a 2.95 ERA in 13 career starts against Seattle (Astros are 10-3) and No. 3 is that Gonzales is going 0-5 with a 6.61 ERA in seven career starts vs Houston (team is 0-7). In fact, Gonzales took the loss on Opening Day in Houston, as he allowed four runs (three earned) over 4.1 innings of an 8-2 Seattle loss. Right now you may be asking, "What the hell are we doing playing Seattle, Larry?" Fair enough but here's why. Since that July 24 start, Gonzales has gone 6-1 (3.26 ERA) over 52.1 innings with a KW ratio of 59-4! As for McMullers, he's pitched well at home in five starts (3-0 with a 1.45 ERA and .159 BAA) but look what's happened in his four road starts. He's lasted just 12.2 innings, allowing 19 ERs for a 13.50 ERA, while opponents have batted .393 against him (those are NOT typos!). Houston will clinch it's playoff berth this week but NOT tonight! Take the 'juicy' price on the home dog! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders +7 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 134 h 26 m | Show |
My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the LV Raiders at 8:15 ET. Last Sunday night on NBC, the LA Rams opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, by edging the Cowboys 20-17. The only thing missing was the fans. Monday night on ESPN, the Las Vegas Raiders get their chance to show off their shiny new $2 billion stadium near the Las Vegas Strip with a high-profile matchup against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints but like last Sunday night in LA, the stadium will be empty. Monday's night's Week 2 contest was supposed to be a big celebration of the NFL's arrival in Las Vegas but the atmosphere has been dampened a bit by the decision not to allow fans at Raiders games this season in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. That said, the venue is beautiful and both teams are coming off Week 1 wins. The Raiders have been waiting for this moment for years, as they've spent the past 25 seasons playing in the rundown Oakland Coliseum. The team was unable to get an agreement on a new stadium in the Bay Area and was blocked from moving to Los Angeles, so it ended up in the desert instead. This game also marks the first time Saints coach Sean Payton and Raiders coach Jon Gruden, who are old friends and colleagues, have been on opposite sidelines since Gruden left Tampa Bay after the 2008 season. Gruden was the Eagles offensive coordinator under coach Ray Rhodes when Payton was hired to his first NFL job as Philadelphia's quarterbacks coach in 1997. I had the Saints in their Week 1 win over Brady and the Bucs, noting that this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. Brees had two TDs passes last Sunday (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. The Saints' rush D has been excellent the last few seasons, as New Orleans has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 44 consecutive games entering this contest (held the Bucs to just 86 yards on 3.3 YPC last week). The Saints' D also gave Brady fits with two INTs, including a 'pick-6.' The Raiders won 34-30 last Sunday at Carolina, as Derek Carr completed 22 of 30 (73.3%) for 239 yards with one TD and no INTs (107.8 QB rating. RB Josh Jacobs ran for 93 yards but averaged just 3.7 YPC. However, he did score three TDs and also caught four passes for 46 yards. Expect continued success by this Alabama product who ran for 1,150 yards (4.8 YPC) and seven TDs as a rookie last season (played just 13 games)! The Raiders blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead last Sunday but Carr engineered a nine-play, 75-yard TD drive (Jacobs capped it with a six-yard TD run) for the win. As noted earlier, I had the Saints last Sunday but I was NOT impressed with Brees and WR Thomas, who has caught 100-plus passes the last three seasons, including 149 in 2019 for 1,725 yards, has been ruled out for this game. I am well aware that the Saints are on a 12-3 ATS run as road favorite but I'm counting on some MNF home team 'magic,' even without fan support. "It still is as a football fan a cool feeling to be able to play on Monday night," QB Derek Carr said. "We wish our city here, Las Vegas, we wish they could experience it with us. I'm sure they will be around somewhere. I'm sure there is a certain street or strip that they'll be on that our fans will be at. But I wish they could be there, but hopefully it still feels the same energy and all those kinds of things." Take the MNF home dog. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-21-20 | Brewers v. Reds -124 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Reds at 6:40 ET. The 27-27 Cincinnati Reds and 26-26 Milwaukee Brewers remain in contention for a postseason spot entering the final week of this uniquely condensed 2020 regular season. The Reds have won SEVEN of eight as they welcome Milwaukee to Cincinnati for this 3-games series with the Brewers having won a season-high four straight to reach .500 for the first time since Aug 19. Cincinnati is 4-3 against the Brewers, with all of those games coming at Milwaukee. The Brewers will go with Brandon Woodruff (2-4, 3.45 ERA),Monday's game, while the Reds counter with Luis Castillo (3-5, 3.03 ERA). Woodruff had a breakout season in 2019, making the All Star team. He posted his 11th victory in his first start after the All-Star break but then suffered an oblique strain that sidelined him for nearly two months. He made just three starts (including a wild card game vs the Nats) after returning on Sep 17. Of note was that the Brewers were a MONEY-MAKING 18-4 in his 22 regular season starts in 2019. However, the Brewers are just 5-6 in Woodruff's 11 starts in 2020, despite the fact that he's allowed three ERs or less in 10 of those 11 starts. Castillo started strong in 2019 with an 11-4 mark and enjoyed his first All-Star selection (was 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA at the break). His 11th win came on August 5 but he won just FOUR of his last nine starts (Reds were just 4-5 in those games). However, his 15 wins were fifth-best in the NL and his 226 strikeouts tied for 12th in strikeouts per nine innings (10.7). Castillo will be getting his first start against the Tigers. Castillo set the bar high on the heels of his breakout season in 2019, claiming before the season that he'd like to capture the National League Cy Young Award in 2020, However, didn't earn his FIRST win of 2020 until his eighth start of the season. He was 0-5 with a 4.10 ERA in those games (Reds were 1-6). As Castillo takes the mound tonight, he's turned his season around this month. He's won all three of his September starts, allowing just three ERs in 22 innings (1.23 ERA) with 24 Ks. The Reds currently own the No. 8 playoff spot in the NL but also have the Cards well within the sights for second in the NL Central (one game back), a finish that would guarantee them a playoff berth. The Reds finish the season with three games in Minnesota. meaning this three-game set will be the team's final three home games of the season (playoffs or not). The good news tonight is that Castillo's in excellent current form (see) and that Milwaukee's recent four-game winning streak came at home, while the Brewers have won just TWICE in their last nine road games. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-20-20 | Patriots v. Seahawks -4 | Top | 30-35 | Win | 103 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET,. I featured a Brady (TB) vs Brees NO) marquee QB matchup in Week 1 (won with the Saints, BTW) and here in Week 2, it's a marquee head coaching matchup featuring Bill (NE) vs Pete (Sea) and it's showcased on NBC's Sunday Night Football. Carrol's first head coaching job was with the Jets (1994) and he went 6-10, before getting fired. However, he was hired by New England in 1997 and took the Pats to the playoffs that season and in 1998, before going 8-8 in 1999, when Bob Kraft fired him (guess who took over for him?). Carroll re-emerged at USC in 2000 and starting 2001, the Trojans never won less than 11 games in any season. A few noteworthy accomplishments were SEVEN consecutive AP Top-4 finishes, a 34-game winning streak, a national-record 33 consecutive weeks as the AP's No. 1-ranked team and two national titles. After a 9-4 finish in 2009 and amidst some controversy, he jumped to the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks. His first two seasons (2010 and 2011) saw Settle go 7-9 but the Seahawks actually won the NFC West in 2010. Beginning in 2012, the Seahawks have won 10-plus games in SEVEN of the last eight seasons, going to back-back Super Bowls at the end of the 2013 season (won) and the 2014 season (lost). Now to Belichick. He was Cleveland's head coach from 1991 through 1995 but NO ONE wins there anymore. Belichick was 36-44 overall, making ONE playoff appearance in . He then took over in New England after Carroll was fired and after a 5-11 season in 2001, has earned the right to claim being the NFL's best-ever head coach. Some guy named Brady stepped in and replaced an injured Bledsoe at QB in the 2001 season and led the Pats to their first Super Bowl title. They went just 9-7 in 2002 (missed the playoffs but from 2003 through 2019, have never won less than 10 games in a season, while adding FIVE more Super Bowl titles. That Brady guy may have had something to do with Belichick's success, but that's an argument for another day. Former league MVP Cam Newton is Belichick's starting QB in 2020 and he looked pretty darn good in Week 1, completing 15 of 19 for 155 yards (no TDs but ZERO interceptions!). He led the Pats in rushing yards with 75 and scored two TDs in the team's 21-1 win over Miami. New England's rushing game (minus Newton) is average at best (I think I'm being too kind) plus Newton's receiving corps isn't' much better. Edelman had five catches for 57 yards and Henry also had five catches but averaged just 7.5 YPC. However, New England's defense (despite significant players opting out), was as good as ever. The Pats led the NFL in points allowed in 2019 (14.1 PPG) and total yards (275.9 YPG) and bettered BOTH of those numbers vs the Dolphins, holding them to 11 points and 269 yards. Speaking of defense, Seattle's "Legion of Boom" is a thing of the past, as Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards (THREE receivers topped 100 yards) in Week 1. However, Seattle's Russell Wilson was brilliant, completing 31 of 35 (88.6%) for 322 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 143.1). When asked about Wilson this past week, Belichick said, "Honestly, I think he's in a way underrated by the media or the fans, I don't know. But I don't really see anybody better than this player, This guy is a tremendous player." Seattle's running game is a 'mess,' with Hyde and Carson combining for 44 yards on 3.4 YPC in Week 1. However, when the final score was in, Seattle won 38-25. Sunday's matchup between the 69-year-old Carroll and 68-year-old Belichick will bring together the two oldest coaches currently in the NFL. Even more noteworthy is that it's a rematch of one of the more memorable Super Bowls in recent years (XLIX), where NE snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds with an interception at the goal line (Why not run 'Beast Mode?'). CenturyLink Field is one of the loudest venues in the NFL but will be silent for Seattle's home opener, as no fans will be allowed in for at least the first three home games. That said, Seattle is on a MONEY-MAKING run of 13-4 ATS in home openers. As for the Pats, without Brady, any past New England trends are "non-applicable." Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-20-20 | Twins v. Cubs -148 | 4-0 | Loss | -148 | 10 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi Cubs at 7:08 ET. The Minnesota Twins won the AL Central title in 2019 with a 101-61 record, the franchise's first 100-win season since the 1965 season (lost a seven-game World Series to the Dodgers and Sandy Koufax). The Twins opened the current season 10-2 but a 10-14 stretch left them a modest 20-16 at the end of August. Minnesota opened September 10-2 but lost THREE of four to open the week in Chicago against the White Sox but after losing 1-09 in Wrigley on Friday, the Twins rebounded with an 8-1 victory last night, clinched a playoff berth for the second year in a row along with securing the team's third postseason appearance in the last four years. The Cubs looked to be in good shape for a wild card berth with a month left in the 2019 season (led the Brewers by five games) but Chicago lost FIVE of seven to Milwaukee in late August and early September, before completely 'imploding' by losing 10 of its final 12 regular season games (Cubs would finish FIVE games back of the final NL wild card spot). Chicago hardly looks like a team ready to 'IMPLODE' down the stretch in 2020. The Cubs hired David Ross on October 24, 2019,as their manager to replace Joe Maddon, signing him to a three-year contract. It's his first major league managing gig and Ross has done an excellent job. The Cubs get set for the "rubber match" of this three-game series (tonight on ESPN) at 31-21, which gives them a 4 1/2-game lead on the second-place Cards and a 5 1/2-game lead over both the Reds and Brewers. The Cubs haven't clinched a playoff just yet but they are about to. Getting the starts in this series final will be Jose Berrios (4-3, 4.15 ERA) of Minnesota and Yu Darvish (7-2, 1.86 ERA) of Chicago. Berrios went 14-8 in 2019, matching his career-high win total (was also 14-8 in 2017), en route to earning his second straight All-Star berth while reaching 200 innings for the first time in his four-year career. However, his 2020 season has been so-so. The Twins are just 5-5 in his 10 starts. Particularly troubling and relevant to this game is that in Berrios' five home starts, he owns a 2.67 ERA and .168 BBA but a 5.76 ERA and .311 BAA in his five road starts! Yu Darvish has been a HUGE bust since Texas traded him during the 2017 season to the Dodgers (ineffective pitching and injuries). However, he's among the front-runners for this year's NL Cy Young award, as the Cubs are 8-2 in his 10 starts and to go along with his sub-2,00 ERA, he owns a 0.84 WHIP 979-12 KW ratio) and a .205 BAA. Is it it worrisome that he is coming off two winless starts? Not really, as he's posted a respectable 3.46 ERA during that time while allowing five ERs on 11 hits in 13 innings (also 16 Ks). Darvish has only faced the Twins three times in his career but owns a 1.77 ERA, with 25 strikeouts in 20.1 innings. As for Berrios, his lone start vs the Cubs came back in 2018, when he took the loss after giving up six runs on six hits in 4.1 innings (that's a 12.46 ERA!). ONE start means nothing but his outing vs the Cubs did come at Wrigley, which brings back into play his 5.76 ERA and .311 BAA in his five road starts here in 2020. Cubs win! Cubs win! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-20-20 | Cardinals -158 v. Pirates | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 57 m | Show |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the StL Cards at 4:05 ET. The Cards won the NL Central in 2019 (91-71) and advanced to the NLCS, before getting swept by the soon-to-be World Champion Nationals. The Cards were hit with a severe COVID-19 outbreak right after the start of the season and were off the field for 17 days. However, they come into Sunday (next Sunday, Sep 27 is the end of the regular season) at 25-24, ONE game better than the Reds and Brewers. All three teams are trying to nail down second-[place in the NL Central (guaranteed playoff berth) or get one of the NL's two wild card spots Sunday concludes a five-game series at PNC Park with the Pirates and marks the Cards' 15th game over the last 11 days, a stretch that began back on Sep 10 with a doubleheader with the Tigers. St Louis lost the opening game of this series to Pittsburgh but have won the last three, including a sweep of Friday's doubleheader The Cards HAVE to be more than a little tired but they are fortunate that the Pirates are the opponent, as Pittsburgh owns MLB's worst record (15-37, .288), which translates to a 115-loss season for a 162-game season. St Louis was no-hit through six innings on Saturday but a five-run seventh was enough for them to escape with a 5-4 win (note: it's sure nice playing the Pirates). Taking the mound this afternoon will be Jack Flaherty (3-2, 5.52 ERA) for the Cards, while the Pirates counter with Joe Musgrove (0-5, 5.74 ERA). Flaherty is off a VERY good season (11-8, 2.75 ERA / 0.97 WHIP / .192 BAA) and a quick glance at his ERA in 2020's seven starts would give one pause. However, a closer look reveals that entering his last start (last Tuesday at Milwaukee), he owned a 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and .196 BAA, So what happened? He just got 'torched' by the Brewers in that one, allowing nine ERs in just three innings (Brewers won 18-3). However, the fact that Flaherty is 5-1 with a 1.94 ERA in eight career starts vs the Pirates (team is 6-2), should provide some confidence in playing on St Louis in this one. What's more, Pittsburgh starter Joe Musgrove is not only winless in six 2020 starts (team is 1-5 / 5,74 ERA and 1.54 WHIP), he is 1-7 with a 6.75 ERA in eight career starts against the Cards (an 88% "go-against!"). Cards pick up the "much-needed" win here and then are off to KC for three games (Royals are just 21-31), before playing FIVE games in four days with Milwaukee to wrap up the current season. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-20-20 | White Sox -107 v. Reds | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -107 | 7 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chi White Sox at 1:10 ET. The Chicago White Sox were just 72-89 last season, finishing 28 1/2 games back of the division-leading Twins in the AL Central. However, as the saying goes, what a difference a year makes. Chicago did have some high expectations entering 2020's shortened season but opened only 10-11. It was then that the White Sox 'turned on the juice' and as they meet the Reds in the rubber match of this three-game series on Sunday, have gone 24-7 since Aug 16. The White Sox already know they're headed to the postseason (first time since 2008) but the 26-27 Cincinnati Reds still have work to do and time is running out. have been in playoff mode just trying to get there themselves. The White Sox ended the Reds' longest winning streak of the season, last night, snapping Cincy's six-game run with a 5-0 shut out. The Reds are 15-10 since Aug 27 and are just ONE game behind the Cardinals for second place in the NL Central (ALL 2nd-place teams get a playoff berth). The Reds are also very much alive for one of the NL's two wild card spots but they have PLENTY of competition. Dylan Cease (5-2, 3.20 ERA) will take the mound for the White Sox in the series finale, while the Reds will give Michael Lorenzen (2-1, 4.56 ERA) his second straight start. Cease has not gone more than 6.1 innings in any of his 10 starts this season (Chicago is 6-4) but look at his improvement across the board from his 14 starts in 2019. He went just 4-7 (team was 6-8 ) with a 5.79 ERA, and 1.55 WHIP. His ERA is down to 3.20 this season (that's a 2 1/2-run improvement!) and his WHIP is down to 1.38. Cincy's Lorenzen made his first 15 appearances of 2020 out of the bullpen, before making his first start of 2020 (and first start since 2018) this past Tuesday at Pittsburgh. He gave up only a single run on four hits while striking out six without a walk over five innings of a 4-1 victory. First, let me note that over this 15 relief appearances of 2020, he had allowed 12 ERs over just 20.2 innings for a 5.23 ERA. Secondly, should ANYONE be impressed with a win over Pittsburgh? For the record, Pittsburgh owns MLB's worst record (15-37, .288), which translates to a 115-loss season for a 162-game season. The Reds may yet earn a playoff berth but they won't 'get any help' (meaning a win) here. Chicago SS Tim Anderson is staring down a second straight batting title (won last year at .335 and is hitting .366 in 202, two points back of the Yankees' LeMahieu) and 1B Jose Abreu has posted MVP-like numbers (.330, 18 HRs and 52 RBI). Good luck...Larry | |||||||
09-20-20 | Jaguars v. Titans OVER 42 | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 115 h 26 m | Show |
My NFL 10* Total of the Month is on Jax/Ten Over at 1:00 ET. Full, detailed analysis by 3:00 ET Wednesday afternoon Wednesday | |||||||
09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys -4.5 | 39-40 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 2 Las Vegas Insider is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET. The Cowboys arrived in LA for Week 1's SNF encounter with the Rams with a new head coach for the first in a decade. Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green Bay in the 2010 season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherited what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. The Rams finished with a 422-380 edge in yards, as the Cowboys were held to to just THREE points in SIX, second-half possessions in a 20-17 loss. The Atlanta Falcons opened their 2020 season at home vs the Seahawks, coming off back-to-back 7-9 seasons. Atlanta outgained Seattle 506-383 in total yards but would end up on the short end of a 38-25 final. "Matty Ice" (what a nickname for a QB who has never won ANYTHING) threw for 450 yards (2 TDs / 1 INT), as three receivers topped 100 yards (Jones had 157, Ridley 130 and both TDs and Gage had 114). Newly acquired RB Todd Gurley ran for only 56 yards on 14 carries. The defense was helpless against Russell Wilson, who went 31 of 35 (88.6%) for 322 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 143.1). Dak Prescott didn't have a poor game (25 of 39 for 266 yards with one TD and no INTs) plus Elliott ran for 96 yards (4.4 YPC). Amari Cooper had 10 catches and highly-touted rookie CeeDee Lamb had five catches for 59 yards. However, Dallas has to find a way to get into the end zone more frequently, with its offensive talent. The Cowboys are back in "Jerry's House" in Week 2 but they're on a 2-8-1 ATS run as non-division home favorites. Then again, the Falcons just 5-16 ATS over their last 21 non-division contests. Throw in the fact that Atlanta is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 road openers and it's Dallas which avoids an 0-2 start in 2020 with a "comfortable" win. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $846 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Dan Kaiser | $545 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Sean Murphy | $430 |
Sean Higgs | $352 |
Ricky Tran | $301 |
Ray Monohan | $263 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Kyle Hunter | $71 |