Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-27-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | 1-7 | Win | 108 | 7 h 27 m | Show | |
The second pick of my STP (an 8*), is on the Dodgers on the run line. I like LA to build off its 3-2 win yesterday, but to do so in much biggers fashion on Sunday night. The visitors go with Adbert Alzolay (4-6, 4.19 ERA), who allowed three runs over four innings in a loss to the Indians last week. Overall Alzolay has been solid, but while he's 3-2 with a 3.86 ERA at home, he's just 1-4 with a 4.65 ERA on the road. The home side counters with veteran Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 3.43), who comes in off a loss to the Padres on Tuesday, allowing three runs over six innings. He struck out seven and he now has a sharp 25/3 K/W over his last three games. He's also been at his best at home, going 4-3 with a 3.06 ERA. I simply don't trust Alzolay on the road, or this Chicago bullpen. The correct call for me here is Kershaw and the Dodgers on the runline. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-27-21 | Portugal v. Belgium +150 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 150 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* WIPE-OUT WINNER is on Belgium. Lukaku vs Ronaldo. I say Lukaku wins out today. In four of the last six meetings between these clubs, the total has eclipsed "over" 2.5 goals. Belgium scored seven goals during the group stage. Portugal has seen five of its last six games having at least three goals being scored. Perhaps playing a "BTTS" score prop, or the "OVER" is worth a second look as well. But for this selection, my play is definitely on Belgium to win outright in regulation. Roberto Martinez's side has won five of the last six matches in all competitions, inculding all three Group Stage contests. Portugal was vulnerable against Germany and it also failed to beat France. I say that Portugal continues to struggle against the World's elite here as well. Lukaku had three goals in the group stage and I expect him to have a big game here as well. I think Portugal is weak on the backend and Belgium will find a way to eventually take advantage. The play is Belgium in regulation. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-27-21 | Royals -105 v. Rangers | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
The third pick of my STP (a 9*), is on the Royals. I like the Royals to bounce back here after yesterday's humbling 8-0 defeat. KC won't be lacking for motivation after four straight losses now. The visitors hand the ball to Brady Singer (3-5, 4.77 ERA), who is coming off a no-decision to the Yankees on Tuesday, allowing two runs over four innings. Singer has struggled with consistency from game-to-game, but I still give him the nod here over his inconsitent counterpart Jordan Lyles. Lyles (2-5, 5.47) returns to the Rangers' rotation to make this start. He's allowed 16 home runs over 77.1 innings of work. He has a 6.01 ERA at home. I like the Royals to bounce back in the finale of this series and everything points to the Rangers having a letdown after two straight vitories. Good price, the play is Kansas City. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-27-21 | Pirates v. Cardinals -148 | 7-2 | Loss | -148 | 20 h 1 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP (an 8*), is on the Cardinals. Neither of these starting pitchers instills a ton of confidence obviously, but I still think the Cards have the advantage here and I look for them to build off their 3-1 victory last night. The visitors hand the ball to Max Kranick (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who makes his MLB debut today. He had seven starts in the minors and posted a mediocre 4.37 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He'll be opposed by Cards' rookie Johan Oviedo (0-3, 4.62), who gave up six runs (although just two earned), over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Tigers on Tuesday. Previous to that he went seven shutout innings and struck out six in an unfortunate no-decision to the Marlins. I say Oviedo is not as bad as his last start, and not as good as his first. But I think even his limited time throwing at this level gives him a big "leg-up" on his counterpart today. This line could easily be higher in my opinion. I'm laying the price, the play is St. Louis. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-26-21 | A's v. Giants -118 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* 37-CLUB PLAY is on the Giants. I like the Giants to build off their 2-0 win last night. The A's hand the ball to Frankie Montas (7-7, 4.79 ERA), who got shelled for eight runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to the lowly Rangers on Monday. Over his last seven starts Montas is a poor 2-5 with a 4.65 ERA He also owns a 5.11 ERA in all road games and a 5-6, 5.15 ERA in all "night" contests. Long story short, I do not expect Montas to suddenly "throw a switch" here and solve all his issues from his last start. Instead, I expect him to struggle throwing opposite his consistent counterpart Alex Wood (6-3, 4.09), who gave up six runs as well in a loss to the Phillies in his last outing. Unlike Montas though, starts like that have been few and far between for Wood this year. He still owns a sharp 65/21 K/W over 66 innings this year and at this price, I think he's the correct call in this starting pitching matchup. I look for San Francisco to take advantage of the shaky Montas at the road and for Wood to bounce-back in friendly confines. Lay the short price, the play is San Francisco. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1 | Top | 84-80 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 3 THRILLER is on the Clippers. Devin Booker and Chris Paul looked exhausted and out of sync in Game 3. I think that Paul George and the Clippers can take advantage here in Game 4 and post a second straight victory on their own floor. Paul had 15 points, 12 assists and three steals, while Booker had 15 points in the setback. Paul was just five of 19 from the floor, while Booker was just 5 of 21. George had 27 points and 15 points, while Ivica Zubac and 15 points and 16 boards. Patrick Beverely had a decent game with eight points and six boards, but he played really good defense against Booker and I expect the veteran to bring that same intensity tonight in Game 4. The Clippers are now 5-0 ATS in their last five at home and they have the experience and home floor advantage to take Game 4 outright. In fact, if not for a tight loss in Game 2, one which could have easily gone in favor of LA, this series would have an entirely different feel to it right now. Even with Paul in the line-up for the Suns and Kawhi Leonard out for the Clippers, I don't think Phoenix is the better team. It's been a great team all year, but it's in unchartered territory at this point. The Clippers are seasoned veterans, all playing with a chip on their shoulders. I think LA is the better team and I expect it to even things up before heading back to Phoenix. The play is the Clippers. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-26-21 | Yankees v. Red Sox -114 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 9 m | Show | |
My 9* WIPE-OUT WINNER is on the Red Sox. I like the Red Sox to build off their 5-3 win here yesterday over New York. The Yankees hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery (3-1, 4.03 ERA), who gav eup one run off three hits over five innings in a no-decision to the A's on Sunday. He's been good this year, but note that while Montgomery is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA at home, he's just 1-0 with a 5.79 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Nate Eovaldi (7-4, 3.90) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Royals, allowing four runs over four innings. Starts like that have been few and far between for Eovaldi all season though and he has to be feeling confident he'll bounce back here as he sports a sharp 3-1, 2.56 ERA record in all "night" contests this season. It's always a war when these two clubs meet, but all things considered, I believe Eovaldi should in fact be a bigger favorite in this one. Good value on Boston Saturday. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-26-21 | Angels v. Rays -159 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
The first part of my STP (an 8*) is on the Rays. I like the Rays to build off their 4-3 win yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Alex Cobb (5-2, 4.41 ERA), who earned a win over the Tigers on Friday, allowing one run over five innings. Note though, while Cobb is 3-1 with a 2.87 ERA at home, he's only 2-1 with a ballooned 6.72 ERA on the road. I like Shane McClanahan in this spot. He's coming off a strong outing too, allowing one run over six innings with eight strikeouts in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision to the Mariners. Over 44.2 innings McClanahan has a sharp 54/14 K/W (he's also interestingly 2-0 with a 3.73 ERA in all "day" games.) I think Cobb takes a step back on the road here, while everything points to McClanahan continuing his steady performance at home. Lay the price, the play is Tampa. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-26-21 | Phillies v. Mets -1.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
The third part of my STP (an 8*) is on the Mets on the run line. I think Zach Eflin (2-6, 4.39 ERA) is better than what his win/loss record would indicate. I really do respect Eflin. That said, he's completely overmatched here by the best pitcher on Earth right now and I absolutely expect the Mets to bounce-back here after last night's 2-1 loss. Eflin most recently was shelled for seven runs off nine hits, including four home runs over five innings in a loss to the Giants. He'll be opposed by Jacob DeGrom (7-2, 0.50), who comes in off a win over the Braves on Monday, allowing one hit over five scoreless. His numbers are just ridiculous and I believe he'll keep his momentum rolling here against this Phillies' line-up which hits much better at home, than it does on the road. I'm laying the 1.5 runs and expecting a big New York victory. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-26-21 | Astros v. Tigers +205 | 1-3 | Win | 205 | 4 h 40 m | Show | |
Houston Astros (R) Valdez @ Detroit Tigers (R) Mize +200 1:10 EST The second part of my STP (an 8*) is on the Tigers in the early game. This is the opener of a double-header. The Astros are sure playing well, as they've won 11 in a row. At some point Houston's going to have a letdown though, and I predict that's going to come here in the opener. Houston has posted 25 runs over its last two wins, while allowing just three. Framber Valdez (4-0, 1.67 ERA) had his Friday start postponed. It's difficult to say anything negative at all about Valdez, so I won't bother. I just feel that Casey Mize is going to be able to match him inning for inning in this abbreviated format. Mize (4-4, 3.61) gave up three runs and a walk while striking out four in a no-decision to the Angels on Sunday. He owns a great 66:24 K:BB over 82.1 innings. Detroit is also 7-3 in its last in trying to revenge a home loss in which it allowed ten or more runs in. I think this is a great spot for a Houston letdown. The play is Detroit. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-26-21 | Denmark -113 v. Wales | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Denmark. Wales finished second in Group A to Italy, while Denmark finished second to Belgium in Group B, despite losing its first two games. Wales made it to the knockouts in 2016 as well. The Dragons lost 1-0 in their final group match against Italy. Of note though is that Wales has lost its two previous matches in Amsterdam, in 1998 and 2014 and it won have any supporters present here. Denmark supporters will be able to attend though. Christian Eriksen will be on the front of everyone's minds today. A 4-1 win over Russia in their final opening game was enough to push the Danes through and I believe they carry that momentum over. Denmark and Wales have no significant injuries to report. That said, Denmark got the better of Wales both home and away during the 2018 UEFA Nations League and it's now seven places higher than the Dragons in the FIFA rankings. I think the Danes have enough factors working in their favor today to continue their success in this matchup. So that's my call on Saturday morning, rolling with Denmark. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-25-21 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -1.5 | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show | |
The second pick of my STP (an 8*) is on the PADRES on the run line. I say the starting pitching matchup in this one is so lop-sidedly in favor of the home side, that I'm going to suggest laying the 1.5 runs for near pick-em price. The visitors go with Corbin Martin (0-2, 8.62 ERA) who is being used out of necessity here. Out of his four big league appearances, two have been starts. The Padres counter with Chris Paddack (4-5, 4.10), who is coming off his best start of the season, allowing two runs and striking out 11 over five innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Red Sox. Recent form is an important factor that I always take into account when assessing starting pitchers and in this case, I love Paddack to build off his last performance. I expect San Diego to win big in this one. The play is the Padres on the run line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-25-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 119 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
The third pick of my STP (a 10*) is on the DODGERS on the run line. I say the starting pitching matchup in this one is so lop-sidedly in favor of the home side, that I'm going to suggest laying the 1.5 runs for the decent return. The visitors go with the volatile Jake Arrieta (5-8, 5.45 ERA), who gave up six runs over three innings in a loss to the Marlins. He's now allowed four earned runs in consecutive outings and note that he's been at his worst on the road, going just 3-4 with a ballooned 6.55 ERA. The home side counters with Tony Gonsolin (0-0, 3.00), who has allowed three runs off nine hits over his first three starts of 2021. Gonsolin has been sharp at home this season though, sporting a tiny 2.81 ERA. Recent form tips the scales in favor of Gonsolin here. Expect LA to not only win today, but to win by a significant margin. The play is the Dodgers on the runline. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-25-21 | A's v. Giants +108 | 0-2 | Win | 108 | 29 h 31 m | Show | |
My 9* INTERLEAGUE THROW-DOWN is on the Giants. The Giants have won eight of ten and three in a row and I think they'll find a way to get the job done here in the opener of this interleague series. The visitors go with Sean Manaea (6-3, 3.01 ERA), who gave up two runs over five innings in an unfortunate loss to the Yanks in his last outing. Here's another difficult road venue in which I believe his team will have problems giving him run support again. Because they face Johnny Cueto (5-3, 4.05), who enters off a win over the Phillies on Friday, allowing three runs and striking out five over six innings. Cueto has been tough at home as well, going just 1-1 with a 5.02 ERA on the road, but 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA on the road. I don't trust the A's offense of late. I also think Cueto is the correct call on his home field. And considering those two big factors working in the Giants' favor, I actually feel that this line could in fact be a bit larger. That swings the value to the Giants in my opinion in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the UNDER Hawks/Bucks. To say I'm surprised by how well Trae Young and the Atlanta Hawks are playing would be an understatement. This isn't just a "playoffs" thing either, as Atlanta caught fire over the final month and a half of the regular season as well. The biggest turnaround has been the Hawks' suffocating defensive play. The Knicks also entered the post-season as one of the hottest teams in the league, but the Hawks absolutely shutdown Julius Randle and went on to win in five games. Atlanta got down early in Game 1 and had to battle from behind, but when the Hawks needed a couple of big defensive plays late, they did just that in the outright upset victory. The Hawks are obviously more comfortable playing with a lead, as they're then able to smother teams defensively. Milwaukee can't be pleased with the way it collapsed defensively. The Bucks can score, but they'll be out to atone for their lacklustre performance on the defensive end in Game 1. From a situational stand point, this one in my opinion for sure sets up as more of a defensive affair (and note, the Bucks have seen the total go under the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded 115 or more points in.) Game 1 went over, but everything points to Game 2 staying under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-25-21 | Mariners v. White Sox -1.5 | 9-3 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP (an 8*) is the WHITE SOX on the run line. I say the starting pitching matchup in this one is so lop-sidedly in favor of the home side, that I'm going to suggest laying the 1.5 runs for the big return. Seattle goes with Yusei Kikuchi (4-3, 3.46 ERA), who has actually been superb of late. Hard to say too many negative things about Kikuchi, other than he has a poor bullpen. And Carlos Rodon (6-2, 1.83) is just on a different level right now as well in my opinion. He most recently allowed one run off three hits while striking out eight over seven innings in an no-decision to the Astros. I think the hard-hitting White Sox are in line for a big night at the plate here in this favorable matchup. The play is Chicago on the run line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 7 DECIDER is on the Lightning PUCK LINE. The last time these teams played here, the Lightning won by a score of 8-0. Am I predicting another lop-sided destruction like that again here? Of course not. But I do expect Tampa to Game 7 handily. This sets up well for Tampa. It has the experience and the home ice advantage. The Lightning were 26-8-2-0 at home, while the Islanders are only 16-17-3-1 on the road. Home ice has been crucial for each team in this series of late and I expect that strong trend to continue here. Goaltending and defense, two of the most important factors, are a "wash" for me here. The difference is Tampa's offense (and its experience in big games like this.) Note that the Lightning are 63-17 in their last 80 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. They're also 65-25 in their last 90 when playing on one days rest. It's been an awesome run for the Isles, but I look for Tampa to advance and to play Montreal. The play is Tampa on the puck-line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-25-21 | Nationals v. Marlins -125 | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
My 9* SITUATIONAL MISMATCH is on the Marlins. The Marlins lost here 7-3 last night, but I think they'll bounce-back on Friday. The Nationals hand the ball to Jon Lester (1-2, 3.96 ERA), who earned his first win of the season on Saturday in the second game of a double-heder against the light-hitting Mets, alowing two runs over six innings. Lester has been decent, but he's been better at home (3.85 ERA), than on the road (4.54). The home side counters with Pablo Lopez (3-4, 2.86), who comes in off one of the best starts of his career, going seven scoreless in a win over the Cubs, also going on to strike out seven in the process. He now owns an 85/21 K/W and note that despite just a 1-3 record, he has a tiny 1.91 ERA at home. Lopez is on fire and I believe he carries that momentum over into this favorable matchup. Great price, the play is Miami. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers OVER 218.5 | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONF FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Suns/Clippers. Game 1 went over the number in the Suns victory. LA looked good for three quarters, but then faded down the stretch after coming from behind to knock off the Jazz. Game 2 went under the number in Phoenix's slim 104-103 last-second victory. I think this back-and-forth pattern on the total continues in Game 3. LA has to be the aggressor from start to finish here. It's already been down 0-2 in every other series up to this point, before then rallying for victory. Will that happen again here? It's hard to imagine the Clippers advancing past the Suns, especially with Chris Paul returning to the line-up tonight for the visiting side. But Paul won't be in "game shape" quite yet and this is Paul George's best chance to get his team back into this series. Momentum is an almost tangible factor in the playoffs and while the Clippers came up just short in Game 2, I still think they can turn things around with a win today. And there are rumors that Kawhi Leonard could return before this series ends as well. So with a win today and Leonard returning for Game 5, the stage could be set for another big series come-back for the Clippers. Whether Leonard played or not, I didn't think the Clippers were going to get swept in this series. LA will have to be the aggressor from the start. With the home side pushing the pace, look for the Suns to match that tempo. I am expecting a faster-paced, wide-open shootout in Game 3. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-24-21 | Golden Knights -142 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -142 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 6 SHOW-DOWN is on the Knights. The NHL would love nothing more than this series to move back to Las Vegas for a decisive Game 7. The Knights are reeling off a humbling Game 5 loss at home, but I expect the visiting side to throw everything it has at Carey Price and the Canadiens to try and extend it one more game. Las Vegas finished as the No. 1 defensive unit in the league, but it was equally adept on the offensive end, as it finished No. 3 overall. This Canadiens playoff team has been incredible. For the most part it's grinded out victories to get to this point. Tough defensive play and fantastic goaltending. The Knights though have played really well in this spot for bettors though, as they're 7-1 in their last eight in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to one or less goals in. Tampa wasn't able to get the job done on the road last night in Game 6 and that series will now go to a Game 7. I don't think that Montreal has what it takes to end this series tonight either, as it plays much better with its back against the wall. This is the best price so far this series for the Knights, and I'm all over it. The play is Las Vegas in Game 6. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-24-21 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* RUN-LINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Astros. The Astros destroyed the Orioles 13-0 on the road last night and I expect another blowout victory here for the visiting side as well. And after three straight vitories, I do now believe that the Tigers are going to have a predictable letdown here in this unfavorable starting pitching matchup. The visitors go with Luis Garcia (5-4, 2.82 ERA), who comes in off another strong out, this time going seven innings and allowing one run and striking out eight. He unfortunately received a no-decision for his spectacular effort. He's better at home than on the road, but I still absolutely believe he's the correct call here, as he'll face volatile Tigers' starter Jose Urena (2-7, 5.79) who is off a loss to the Angels on Friday, allowing seven runs off seven hits over four innings. Over his last two starts spanning six innings, Urena has been rocked for 15 runs. I like Houston to keep the good times rolling at the plate here against the erratic Urena, as I look for the Astros to not only win this game, but win by a significant margin. The play is Houston on the run-line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-23-21 | Dodgers +107 v. Padres | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
The third pick of my STP is a 10* play on the Dodgers. I like the Dodgers to bounce back after last night's 3-2 loss. LA scored a run in both the eigth and ninth innings, but it just wasn't enough. But I think the champs bounce back with Trevor Bauer (7-5, 2.45 ERA) on the hill tonight, he most recently earned a win over the D-Backs, going seven scoreless, allowing just three hits and striking out eight. Bauer continues to dominate in almost every statistical category there in pitching and I don't see that slowing down any time soon. The ome side counters with Joe Musgrove (4-6, 2.28), who also comes in off a strong outing, going seven scoreless against the Reds on Thursday. Musgrove has been on the end of some heartbreaking losses this year, and tonight also sets up as being one of "those" types of nights. LA has done well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to two or less runs in. Look for LA to get back into the winners circle on Wednesday night. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE FINALS Game 1 DECIDER is on the Bucks. Am I impressed by the Atlanta Hawks? How could you not be! Ever since Nate McMillan took over as head coach, this has been a "different" Atlanta team. Many feel McMillan should have actually won Coach Of The Year, instead of Tom Thibedeux. Regardless, a renewed commitment on the defensive end is the reason why the Hawks are where they are right now. They shut down Julius Randle and the Bucks and they did the same to everyone on the 76ers with the last name that's not Embiid. And the Hawks did have troubles with the 76ers big man, who pretty much did what he wanted. The Bucks have a similar type player in Giannis Antetokounmpo (who is averaging 28.8 points and 13.6 rebounds in the playoffs), but he's even more dynamic and a bigger matchup issue overall in my opinion. And the steady play of Khris Middleton is another issue that the Hawks will have to contend with. I think the public is enamoured with Atlanta, but the sharp call is with Milwaukee to comfortably pull away down the stretch. I'm laying the points, the play is the Bucks. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders +137 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 137 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* EAST SEMI-FINAL GAME 6 BATTLE is on the Islanders. The Islanders play better at home. They won Game 4 by a score of 3-2, then fell flat in an 8-0 loss in Game 5 in Tampa. Clearly, that was an outlier. For both teams. It got ugly and out of hand and the Islanders were already looking ahead and planning for Game 6. New York finished 26-6-2 at home. The Lightning were sure good on the road, but note that New York is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to revenge a shutout road loss against an opponent. With the season on the line, I think the Isles can bounce back at home. They're still 5-2 their last seven as an underdog (they're also 8-3 in their last 11 when playing on one days rest.) Tampa's not going to roll over, but it still has one more chance to wrap up this series on home ice. I say the "hungrier" team wins Game 6. Great value here on the Islanders. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-23-21 | A's -150 v. Rangers | 3-5 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
The second pick of my STP is an 8* play on the A's. The bottom line is, I think this is a bigger pitching mismatch than what this line is trying to lead us to believe. The A's smashed the Rangers 13-6 here last night and I expect a similar outcome here as well. James Kaprielian (4-1, 2.84 ERA) gave up three runs over six innings while also striking out seven in a win over the Yankees in his last outing. Here's a line-up which I think Kaprielian can take advantage of for sure. Certainly I like him to get the better of his volatile counterpart Mike Foltynewicz (1-7, 5.59), who gave up four runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Friday. Oakland is also 8-2 in its last ten after scoring 12 or more runs in a victory in its last outing. As I stated above, this line could/should in fact be larger. I'm laying the price on the Athletics in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-23-21 | Red Sox v. Rays -139 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
The first pick of my STP is an 8* play on the Rays. I like the Rays to bounce back here after yeesterday's 9-5 loss in which they conceded four runs in the top of the tenth inning. The Red Sox hand the ball to Garrett Richards (4-4, 4.36 ERA) who was crushed by the Braves on Wednesday, allowing six runs off seven hits over just four innings. It was the second outing in a row that he's given up four earned runs. Rich Hill (5-2, 3.64) is coming off a no-decision vs. the Mariners most recently for the homoe side, he gave up four runs and struck out five over five innings. Both of these veterans have seen better days. Each started out hot, but each is now scuffling with consistency from game-to-game. These starters are essentially a "wash." But I don't trust the Red Sox bullpen on the road. I do trust the Rays' pen at home, despite last night extra-innings loss. Considering the circumstances, I think this line could/should in fact be higher, and that swings the value to Tampa. The play is the Rays. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-22-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights OVER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Canadiens/Knights. This has been a very defensive series so far. The first three games "pushed" on 5, while Game 4 went well under in the Knights' 2-1 win. We're all tied up heading back to Las Vegas now and with the shift in venue again, I'm finally expecting some pucks to find the back of the net tonight. Clearly, Marc-Andre Fleury and Carey Price have stolen the headlines in this series, but note that the Canadiens have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten in trying to revenge an OT home loss to an opponent in which they were held to one or less goals in. Vegas is No. 1 in the league defensively, conceding just 2.18 GPG. But it's also the No. 3 offensive team, averaging 3.39 GPG. The Knights' defense has been stymied to this point, but Montreal could be ripe for the picking here after its late collapse in Game 4. The Lightning/Islanders series was also a very defensive one up until Tampa's 8-0 blowout win last night. I say this series takes a similar turn here as well as far as the scoring is concerned. Look for a faster-paced, and ultimately higher-scoring Game 5. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-22-21 | Clippers +6 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Clippers. LA had its chances in Game 1. Paul George looked great. LA was unable to take advantage of a Suns side without star Chris Paul in the line-up in Game 1, but it'll try to do so here. LA has been masterful in making game-to-game adjustments, even without start Kawhi Leonard in the line-up. Devin Booker got the last laugh in Game 1, but George and the Clippers have played well in a revenge spot, going 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a road loss against an opponent in which they allowed 120 or more points in. Phoenix had the advantage with a couple extra days off between series, and that helped down the stretch. LA though still has to be encouraged that it was right in Game 1 until the end, despite shooting a poor 45 percent form the floor. I say that LA can keep the foot on the gas for a full four quarters in Game 2. The outright upset is possible, but in the end my official recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-22-21 | Braves v. Mets OVER 7 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the OVER Braves/Mets. These are two teams that have struggled with offensive consistency this year. They're facing two really good starting pitchers as well. They played a double-header yesterday and both of those contests fell "under" the posted number. Despite all of that though, I think this line is finally a bit too low and the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. Charlie Morton (6-3, 4.03 ERA) is coming off a strong start for the Braves, going 7.2 scoreless in a win over the Cardinals on Thursday. It was his first scoreless outing of the year. Morton has looked significantly better for his new team over the last month, but note that while he's 5-1 with a 3.80 ERA at home, he's just 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.42 ERA on the road. Marcus Stroman (6-5, 2.34) is coming off a hard-luck loss to the Cubs on Thursday, allowing just two runs over seven innings. It's difficult to say anything negative about Stroman, as he's been the Mets' most consistent starter this year, but I do believe he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. After getting held in check yesterday, I expect these still talented hitting line-ups to finally plate some runs today. In my opinion, this number is too low. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-22-21 | Cardinals v. Tigers -101 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* IL TUESDAY BATTLE is on the Tigers. Detroit won three in a row, and then it lost three in a row. The Tigers though broke that three-game slide with a 5-3 win over the Angels in their last game. Now they return home to face a Cardinals team that lost three of four at the Braves over the weekend. St. Louis has struggled all season, while Detroit has played better of late. The visiting side goes with Johan Oviedo (0-2, 4.58 ERA), who comes in off seven shutout innings against the Marlins on Wednesday, winning 1-0. It was the first time all season though that he has allowed less than two runs. Tyler Skubal (4-7, 4.36) allowed three runs with seven strikeouts over six innings in a win over the Royals on Wednesday. Over 66 innings Skubal has a great 81/31 K/BB. He also hasn't given up more than three earned runs in any of his last six starts. I think the Tigers keep the momentum from their last victory rolling here. I also believe that Skubal is the correct call between these starting pitchers. All things considered, a great price on Detroit in this matchup. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-22-21 | Scotland v. Croatia UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* EURO CUP TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Croatia/Scotland. Scotland drew were England nil-nil in its most recent match, while Croatia also ended with a 1-1 draw against the Czech Republic. Croatia is struggling offensively, and I don't expect that to change here vs. the defensive-minded Scots. Ivan Perisic scored the equalizer for Croatia against the Czech's, but finding the back of the net even once against Scotland could prove difficult. Croatia needs outside help and it needs to win to advance. The Tartan Army won't be rolling over though obviously. While a goalless draw isn't great for the fans, it has to be viewed as a victory by Scotland. However, Scotland has yet to find the back of the net in the Tournament, and that could once again be an issue here against this determined Croatia side. Croatia have been forced to cope without Rangers left-back Borna Barisic, and he's listed as questionable again this afternoon. Clearly that's not good for Croatia's attack. Scotland also got dealt a major blow with a positive COVID 19 test for Billy Gilmour. Yes, both teams are "desperate." But I don't think that fact is going to magically lead to a bunch of goals suddenly being scored here. In fact, I say it goes the other way, that these two defensive-minded clubs once again rely on their strength and wait for the other to make the first mistake. This number is high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-21-21 | Reds v. Twins +107 | 5-7 | Win | 107 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
My 8* IL BATTLE is on the Twins. The Reds aren't playing well. They always play better at home than on the road. They don't play well as a road favorite. They also don't do particularly well in road interleague games. The Twins have had a disappointing season, but they come in playing their best ball so far and I think they offer great value as a small home dog in this situation. After winning six in a row, the Reds have lost four straight. All four losses came in San Diego over the weekend, including a close 3-2 setback last night. The Twins on the other hand come in having won four in a row, including three straight in Texas over the weekend. JA Happ (3-3, 6.12 ERA) gave up six runs over four innings in a loss to the Mariners in his last start for the Twins. Happ opened the season on fire, but he's since come back down to Earth. Clearly though he wont' be lacking for motivation today, and that's important to me here. Also note that he's done much better at home (2-1, 4.35 ERA), than on the road (1-2, 8.04). His counterpart is Tyler Mahle (7-2, 3.39), who is coming off a good victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday, allowing one run over six innings. Mahle has been a consistent bright spot in the Reds rotation this year. He's also been better on the road than at home. It's difficult to say anything negative about Mahle. As I say, he's been a bright spot for the Reds this year. Cincinnati's bullpen though has been terrible and its inconsistencies at the plate are always an issue. I don't trust the Reds as a favorite on the road in this Interleague matchup at all. I look for Happ to match Mahle and for the Twins to ultimately build on their recent momentum. The play is Minnesota. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-21-21 | Islanders +162 v. Lightning | Top | 0-8 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 5 DECIDER is on the Islanders. The Canadiens looked like they were going to cruise to a win last night with a 1-0 lead late in the third period, but then the Knights scored to push it to OT and now they're heading back to Las Vegas all tied up at 2-2. The Islanders and Lightning are also tied. New York looked very dominant in its 3-2 win over the Isles at home in Game 4 and I believe it has the blueprint to success against the Lightning. I'm not reading too much into the home ice advantage and I think that these teams are in fact evenly matched across the board. It wouldn't be difficult whatsoever to write a really convincing argument for the Lightning to bounce back here and that there is in fact value on laying this larger price for them to do that. But I don't think that's where the value lies at all on the side tonight. As I say, I don't think the home ice matters as an advantage for these teams, and I also don't think that the Lightning are a vastly better team. So for me, that swings the value to this undervalued underdog. This dogs barking on Monday night and I expect it to deliver. The Islanders are the play in Game 5! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-21-21 | A's v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* RUN-LINE PERFECT STORM is on the Rangers. I like the hungry Rangers to at the very least, keep this within a single run. Texas enters off six straight losses, while after winning seven in a row, Oakland comes in off consecutive losses at the Yankees. The bottom line is though, I think that these starting pitchers are evenly matched, and that swing the value to this hungry home dog in my opinion. Frankie Montas (7-6, 4.21 ERA) is coming off a good outing against the Angels on Tuesday, allowing two runs over seven innings while striking out eight. He's actually been better on the road than at home, but note that he's also just 5-5 with a 4.54 ERA in all "night" contests. Kyle Gibson (4-0, 2.09), also enters off another strong start, allowing one run over six innings in a no-decision to the Astros on Tuesday. Gibson has been especially strong at home though, going 3-0 with a minuscule 0.97 ERA here. As I say, I'm banking on Gibson getting the better of Montas today and while I do think the outright win is possible as well for the Rangers tonight, this is just too good price in my opinion to turn down on the runline. The play is Texas on the runline. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-20-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -127 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 4 TOTAL is on the over Knights/Canadiens. This has been an evenly matched series. So far all three games have "pushed" on the O/U at 5, but in Game 4 I do finally predict more of a wide-open affair, as the favored Golden Knights look to control the tempo as to avoid a dreaded 1-3 hole. Vegas had a 2-1 lead heading into the final minutes of Game 3, before a late goal by Montreal, followed by the OT winner. Despite how the Canadiens ended up winning (whether you consider that a "lucky" victory or not), Montreal has played unbelieavably overall in the playoffs and I don't think it's getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers. Each team has experienced, World-class goaltenders and elite defenses, but note that the Knights have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last nine in trying to revenge an OT road loss to an opponent. I think Game 4 sets up great from a few different situational and trend based angles as being a faster-paced, higher-scoring contest. The play in Game 4 is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-20-21 | Clippers +5 v. Suns | Top | 114-120 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 1 DECIDER is on the Clippers. Two major players are out for each team. The Clippers are without star Kawhi Leonard, and the Suns will be without star Chris Paul. LA advanced by taking out the Jazz in six games, while Phoenix swept Denver in four games. The Clippers took two of three in the regular season. Paul George has filled in admirably though in place of Leonard and there's no reason not to think that he can't carry over that momentum here. George averaged 29.2 points to beat Utah. Terance Mann had a career night with 39 points in the Game 6 win over the Jazz as well. The big question here is, will rest lead to rust for the Suns? It might. And then throw in the additional factor of not having your floor general to guide them, this does indeed set up as a letdown spot for Phoenix in my estimation (note that they are in fact just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 when playing with three or more days rest.) And conversely, the Clippers couldn't be more in-sync with each other right now, despite the absence of Leonard. I thinks "Playoff P" is for real and while I do believe the outright victory is possible, in the end let's grab the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-20-21 | White Sox +1.5 v. Astros | 2-8 | Loss | -150 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* RUN-LINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the White Sox. In what I expect to be a tight game, I'm going to lay the mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs. Chicago comes in hungry here after three staight losses to the Astros, while Houston enters complacent after six straight victories. Dallas Keuchel (6-1, 3.78 ERA) will be leaned upon here by Chicago to stop the slide. He enters off a strong victory over the Rays on Tuesday, allowing four hits over seven scoreless innings. Keuchel comes in red hot, as he's gone three straight starts in which he's gone at least six innings, while not allowing more than two earned runs. Lance McCullers (3-1, 2.89) returned from the ten-day IL to give up two runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Rangers on Tuesday. It was a decent performance against a weak hitting line-up. Clearly, McCullers is going to be tested today by this hungry White Sox line-up. And one final factor I'll point out, note that Chicago is 7-2 in its last nine after three or more straight losses in a row. I think there's great value on this mid-sized priced wager. The play is Chicago on the run-line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-19-21 | Bucks +1 v. Nets | Top | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 7 DECIDER is on the Bucks. If Kyrie Irving and James Harden didn't get injured, this series would be over. But they did get injured. Irving won't be playing in this game, and clearly James Harden is far from being 100%. Kevin Durant is playing out of his mind right now, but the veteran has to be fatigued at this point and I think that the depth and experience that the Bucks bring to the table in Game 7 will be the difference-maker in the end. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 30 points with 17 rebounds and three assists for the Bucks in their dominant Game 6 victory and I can't see the short-handed Nets slowing him down tonight either. Durant had 32 in a losing cause in Game 6, but Harden added just 16, while Blake Griffin had only 12 points. Khris Middleton though had 38 points and ten boards for Milwaukee last time out. I think Brooklyn's injury issues do now finally come back to haunt it here in Game 7. A healthy and focussed Antetokounmpo is the correct call in Game 7. I'm on the Bucks. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders +114 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 114 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* GAME 3 TIE-BREAKER is on the Islanders. New York won Game 1, but the Lightning have taken the last two. I like the Islanders to bounce back here in Game 4 though, before the series shifts back to Tampa. Game 3 was tight, and it could have gone either way. The Lightning won though 2-1. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 28 shots. Semyon Varlamov has been great for the Islanders though all year long and there's no reason not to believe that he can't continue his strong play in Game 4. Despite the loss last time out, the Isles are still 7-2 in their last nine as a home dog. Clearly, with a line like this the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. And they are, but with their backs against the wall and looking to avoid the dreaded 1-3 hole, in my opinion, everything points to the Isles finally bouncing back here after two straight losses. Great value on New York in Game 4. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-19-21 | Phillies v. Giants -105 | 13-6 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Giants. San Francisco is off a 5-3 win here yesterday and I say it keeps the foot on the gas in this interesting matchup on Saturday afternoon. The visitors go with ace Aaron Nola (5-4, 3.69 ERA), who gave up zero runs over 7.2 scoreless innings in a victory over the Yankess on Sunday. Previous to that he'd allowed at least three runs in each of his last two outings. While Nola is a great 3-1 with a 2.51 ERA at home, he's a poor 2-3 with a 5.05 ERA on the road. He'll be opposed by the Giants' Alex Wood (6-3, 3.71), who gave up two runs and struck out seven over six innings in a win over the Diamondbacks. It was a bounce-back performance for Wood, who had struggled previous to that leading up (note that he's 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in all "day" games.) Nola is better at home than on the road, and so is his team. The Giants are undervalued here in my opinion. I think San Francisco has the better bullpen and I expect Wood to be able to easily match Nola inning for inning. Everything points to a comfortable home side victory here. The play is San Francisco. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-19-21 | Poland v. Spain OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -117 | 23 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Euro Cup TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the OVER Spain/Poland. I expect plenty of balls to find the back of the net in this one. Spain can't be happy here after its goalless draw with Sweden on Monday. Poland will be out to atone for a 2-1 loss to Slovakia in its opening match. It wasn't from a lack of trying for Spain in its opening game, but it ran into a red hot keeper in Robin Olsen. With Slovakia up next, the Spaniards know they'll need to press the pace here and win convincingly. Poland's form is terrible, as it has just one win in its last eight matches. These teams haven't faced each other since 2010, and in that game Spain won 6-0. I don't expect such a lop-sided discrepancy here, but I do expect plenty of goals and a similar final combined score here between these two hungry sides. Considering the circumstances each side finds itself in, I believe this total is much too low. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-19-21 | A's +115 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Athletics. The A's held on for a 5-3 win last night and I believe they'll build off that victory and find a way to get the job done here as well. The visiting side hands the ball to ace Chris Bassitt (7-2, 3.43 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Royals on Sunday. He's on top form right now, having won four straight and everything points to that progression continuing on Saturday in my opinion. The Yanks go with Domingo German (4-4, 3.88), who suddenly comes in struggling, in fact he's off his worst start of the year, getting shelled for seven runs off ten hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Phillies last weekend. He's now 0-2 with a 5.66 ERA over his last four starts. Oakland is rolling, as it's 13-2 in its last 15 games and 19-9 on the road overall. Look for Bassitt to continue to roll here. Great value on the red hot Athletics. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-18-21 | Jazz -120 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* MONEY-LINE PERFECT STORM is on the Utah Jazz. Both teams are injured. Utah though is desperate to keep its season alive after falling 119-111 in Game on Wednesday. Donovan Mitchell is questionable for the Jazz, but Kawhi Leonard is still out for the Clippers. Paul George had one of the best games of his career last tie out, posting 37 points, 16 boards, five assists and two blocks, while Marcus Morris added 25. I just can't see lightning striking twice for these two players, who have been consistently inconsistent with their game-to-game performances over the last couple of season (George in particular.) The Clippers have been in "must win" mode for the last three games, but I just can't see them beating this Jazz team (with or without Mitchell), in four straight. Bojan Bogdanovic continues to play at a very high level for Utah, as he had 32 points in a losing cause last time out. I'm also expecting Rudy Gobert to step up his game here for Utah. Finally note that Utah is 4-0 ATS in its last four on the road and still 4-1 ATS in its last five vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600, while the Clippers are a poor 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. George stepped up his game big time in the first game without Leonard, but I expect fatigue to be a factor here for the veteran. Look for the hungrier and more desperate Jazz to gut out a victory here on the road and send this one back to Utah for a decisive Game 7. The play is Utah on the money line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the UNDER Knights/Canadiens. Both teams lead the playoffs in most offensive and defensive statistical categories. Both have World class goaltenders and in this important Game 3 contest, I believe they'll garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The past two games have gone under the number, with both defenses controlling the tempo and nothing is going to change here either. Marc-Andre Fleury and Carey Price are playing unbelievably right now and each has the ability to take over a game and a series. The Canadiens won't be out to push the pace here now that they have the advantage of being back at home. The last thing Montreal can clearly afford to do is to try and open things up and give these high-flying Knights any sort of momentum on the offensive end. Montreal has been incredibly disciplined throughout the playoffs, waiting for its opponent to make a mistake to then take advantage. Everything points to yet another highly-competitive, lower-scoring under in Game 3. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-18-21 | Indians v. Pirates +1.5 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* RUN-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Pirates. After winning three straight, the Pirates have now lost ten in a row. Clearly, Pittsburgh has many issues across the board. That said, we also don't have to question Pittsburgh's collective resolve here to get off the schneid and back into the winners circle. I think that's working in our favor here today, as I expect the Indians to get caught disinterested here in this non conference contest. Cleveland has won seven of ten and it just swept the Orioles in four straight at home. This is the opener of four straight series on the road, but a letdown here seems imminent for Cleveland. Jean Carlos Mejia (1-1, 4.26 ERA) has been OK in his limited time for the Indians, but he's largely untested and his 13/5 K/W over 12.2 innings isn't anything to write home about. It's been a difficult season Pirates starter Chad Kuhl (0-4, 6.52), who allowed six runs over four innings in a loss to the Brewers on Saturday. If Kuhl has had one bright spot on his resume though this season, it's been his play at home, where he has a 4.59 ERA, compared to a 7.74 ERA on the road. Last year Kuhl was 0-3 with a 7.03 ERA on the road, and 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA at home. Clearly, Kuhl throws better at home than on the road. I say this one means much more to Kuhl and the Pirates this evening and while I do think Pittsburgh can "steal" this one outright, in the end let's lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The play is Pittsburgh on the run line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks OVER 219.5 | Top | 89-104 | Loss | -111 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SEMI-FINAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Nets/Bucks. Depending on when you played Game 5's total, you either won, lost or pushed. It was close. Most would have pushed on the closing line. Regardless, this series has been a very low-scoring one. And that's surprising, because Milwaukee finished as the No. 1 offense in the league in regular season. Brooklyn finished near the bottom in almost every defensive category as well. I think Game 6 will be a wide-open affair. Milwaukee let a 17-point lead slip away in Game 5, so clearly it'll be out to atone for that mess-up, and that means playing hard for a full four quarters. Can Kevin Durant duplicate his historic performance from Game 5? KD has been unstoppable so far in this series and I can't see that trend changing here in this critical moment. Despite the injuries to Kyrie Irving and James Harden, the Nets role players are rallying and doing more than enough to support Durant. Harden has been cleared to play here, and he should be signficantly better after returning from injury and getting that first awkward game out of the way. Expect these two offensive-minded clubs to finally blast past this number with a competitive, higher-scoring Game 6. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders +124 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* EAST SEMI-FINAL GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Islanders. This is going to be a back-and-forth series. New York held on for the win in Game 1, and then the defending champs rallied and responded in Game 2. Now the series shifts to Long Island and I think that New York will return the favor and find a way to get the job done here in Game 3. Tampa's offensive numbers were superior in the regular season, but each team's numbers are pretty much even in the playoffs. Both are filled with experienced talent and with a line like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. And so do I. From goaltending, defense, offense, special teams and coaching, it simply would not be difficult whatsover for me to write a very convincing argument for either of these talented sides to win. So why then do I like New York in Game 3? The Islanders return home where they're 25-5-2-2. The Lightning are 20-11-1-2 on the road. New York though is a near-perfect 7-1 in its last eight in trying to revenge a two goals or greater road loss to an opponent. This series could easily see seven games, but Game 3 points to the Islanders bouncing back on home ice in my opinion. The play is New York. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-17-21 | Cardinals +157 v. Braves | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Cardinals. The Braves fell 10-8 here to the Red Sox last night, while the Cardinals held on for a 1-0 win at home over the Marlins. After a poor stretch, the Cardinals have now won three in a row and I like their chances to "stun" their opponent in this one. John Gant (4-4, 3.36 ERA) gets the call for St. Louis, and while he's coming off an outing to forget in which he allowed five runs over 1.2 innings to the Cubs, starts like that have truly been few and far between. Gant has also been great on the road, going 2-2 with a 2.31 ERA. Charlie Morton (5-3, 4.50) counters for Atlanta and he's coming off a crummy outing as well, allowing four runs and four walks over four innings in a loss to the Marlins on Friday. Note that Morton's road ERA (4.32), is better than his home ERA (4.81). I reserve these releases for just such a situation. I like Gant to bounce back here and I look for the hungry Cardinals to keep the momentum rolling and to earn a hard-fought upset. The play is St. Louis. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-17-21 | Cubs v. Mets -119 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -119 | 26 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Mets. I think Marcus Stroman, at this price and throwing at home, is the correct call in this particular matchup. The Cubs go with Kyle Hendricks (8-4, 4.46 ERA), who gave up two runs over six innings in a win over the Cardinals on Saturday. Hendricks has won six in a row, but note that he's been plagued by the long-ball of late, allowing eight home runs over just his last four starts alone. Stroman (6-4, 2.33), is coming off a dominant win as well on Saturday, as he allowed one run over 6.1 innings against the hard-hitting Padres. Stroman has won three in a row and he's absolutely been at his best on this field this season, going 3-1 with a tiny 1.91 ERA thus far. With a chance to sweep the Cubs, and with the much more consistent starter behind them, I like the Mets to get the job done here in the finale. Lay the short price, the play is New York. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-17-21 | Belgium +108 v. Denmark | Top | 2-1 | Win | 108 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Belgium. Belgium destroyed Russia 3-0 and I believe it'll crush Denmark as well today. Belgium didn't even feature its full line-up in the win over Russia, which makes its victory all that much more impressive. Denmark lost to Finland and now it has to move ahead without its best player for the rest of the Tournament. The last three encounters between the countries sees Belgium have two wins and a draw. Christan Eriksen is "OK," but a distraction overall for Denmark. Denmark has an inability to finish chances, and I have a hard time seeing it even finding the back of the net a single time today against this World Class team from Belgium. Belgium won't be taking the foot off the gas, or looking past anyone. It's full speed ahead every game and I believe that'll be the case here against this overmatched Denmark side. Great value here on the "better" team. The play is Belgium. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-16-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
My 10 PUCKLINE LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Canadiens. I had a play on Montreal in Game 1 and that obviously came up short. The Canadiens had been on quite the roll before that Game 1 performance, and they're going to now have to get creative here if they want to avoid an 0-2 hole. These teams are similar in many regards, but the Canadiens are going to have to dial up the pressure on the defensive end if they have any hopes of getting back into this series. Montreal though has acutally done exceptionally well in this spot for bettors, as note that it's 6-0 in its last six when playing with one days rest. The Canadiens are also still 5-1 their last six as an underdog and 7-1 in their last eight against teams with winning records. The odds are stacked against them, but I think Montreal makes the necessary adjustments to make Game 2 much more competitive. In a contest which I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. The play is Montreal on the puck-line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-16-21 | Hawks v. 76ers -6 | Top | 109-106 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Philadelphia 76ers. This has been a back-and-forth series. I think that trend continues here, as I like Philadelphia to bounce back after the Game 4 loss. It's all tied up now at 2-2, but the 76ers have to be feeling confident that they can recover at home. Philadelphia actually had a 13-point half-time lead. Somehow the Hawks managed to claw their way back into it, despite 76ers big man Joel Embiid going for 17 points and 21 boards. I had a play on the 76ers in Game 4, on the money line. Obviously I was not too happy the way that one ended. The price is too steep to play on the money line here, but I'm expecting a decisive victory anyways. The Hawks are still only averaging 107 PPG in the playoffs, while the 76ers lead all teams in the postseason with an average of 121 per contest. Philadelphia is also a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss, while Atlanta is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on this floor. Look for the 76ers to answer here with a resounding victory after the Game 4 loss. The play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-16-21 | Orioles v. Indians -154 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Indians. Cleveland won 7-2 here yesterday over Baltimore and I think it'll maintain its momentum and post another solid victory in what sets up to be another favorable starting pitching matchup for it. The visitors hand the ball to Keegan Akin (0-1, 4.13 ERA), who gave up three runs over four innings in a loss to the Rays. The rookie hasn't been anything to write home about so far and he enters with a poor 0-1, 4.43 ERA record on the road. Aaron Civale (9-2, 3.17) counters for the home side and he just went eight scoreless against the Mariners. Here's another line-up that Civale can take advantage of. Note that he's 4-1 with a tiny 2.62 ERA at home this year. Akin hasn't even made it into the sixth inning in any of his starts and I think he'll stumble trying to keep pace with the steady Civale here in this difficult road venue. All things considered, I believe this line could in fact be a lot larger. There are a plethora of great factors working in favor of Civale and the Indians today. My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Cleveland. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets +3 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Brooklyn Nets. The Bucks have evened this series back up. Milwaukee has been less than impressive in this series though. It got destroyed in both games in Brooklyn, before then barely holding on for an 86-83 win in Game 3 at home. The Bucks looked a bit better in their 107-96 win in Game 4, but they still could barely pull away, even with the injury to Kyrie Irving. Now Irving is out for Game 5 and James Harden is also still sidelined with injury. But Kevin Durant is playing. And the Nets are still a deep and well-coached team. It's now or never for Brooklyn's role players to step and contribute here. The Bucks have struggled with consistency from game-to-game, especially on the road. The Nets have done well in this spot for bettors, going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 at home and a near-perfect 7-1 ATS in their last eight in trying to revenge back-to-back losses to an opponent. I like KD to defend home court. Outright victory? I'd say it's worth sprinkling a little on the money-line, but in the end my official call will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is Brooklyn. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-15-21 | Tigers v. Royals -145 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* American League NON-DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Royals. Off their 10-3 defeat here to the Tigers yesterday, I think that Mike Minor and the Royals are going to bounce-back in fine fashion on Tuesday. The Tigers hand the ball to Casey Mize (3-4, 3.44 ERA), who gave up three runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Mariners on Wednesday. The rookie has been surprisingly steady across the board, but I'll point out that Detroit is a terrible 2-7 in its last nine after scoring ten or more runs in a road victory in its last outing. Minor (5-3, 4.50) is coming off perhaps his best start of the season, allowing one run and striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over the A's. Minor has now posted at least seven strikeouts in six of his last seven starts and I think this is another extremely favorable matchup for the surging veteran. Finally, note that the Royals are 8-3 in their last 11 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded nine or more runs in. Great price on the revenge-minded home side. The play is the Royals. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-15-21 | Rays v. White Sox -110 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the White Sox. I had a play on the White Sox yesterday and while that pick came up short, I do think that Dallas Keuchel and the home side offer fantastic value in this spot to bounce back. Yes, the Rays are on fire. The White Sox were too before yesterday's loss. But Shane McClanahan (2-1, 4.54 ERA) is off back-to-back poor outings and I think the rookie is destined for further regression here. Last time out he was lucky to earn a no-decision after allowing three runs over three innings to the Nationsl. Over his last 6-1 innings of work he's allowed seven runs and ten hits. Suffice it to say, I think his early sparkling numbers are "smoke and mirrors." Keuchel (5-1, 4.14) is coming off back-to-back quality starts, most recently conceding tow runs over six innings while striking out eight in a win over the hard-hitting Blue Jays on Thursday. Keuchel could/should easily be a much bigger favorite in this spot. I say McClanahan continues his spiral down the proverbial toilet with another dud in this difficult road venue. Lay the short price, the play is Chicago. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 145 | 31 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* PUCK-LINE PERFECT STORM is on the Lightning. I had a play on the Islanders in Game 1, and they cashed out at +175. Here though I think they're going to be completely satisfied with having already earned the split, while I expect Tampa to respond and risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes to avoid the 0-2 hole. These teams are very similar on both ends of the ice, except Tampa's offense is better. I said in my Game 1 analysis that New York had the defense to pull off an upset not only in Game 1, but in this series as well. But to do that, many different things are going to have to fall into place for the Islanders. Do I think that New York is going to sweep the Lightning? Of course not. Do I think that the Isles will take both of these opening games in Tampa? I don't either. I think that Tampa is going to respond and win today. But not only, win BIG. As note that the Lightning are a near-perfect 7-1 in their last eight playoff games in trying to revenge a home loss in which they were held to one goal or shutout in. Expect the Bolts to cruise to a sizeable victory in Game 2 and play on the puck-line. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-15-21 | Germany v. France +175 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 175 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* EURO CUP GAME OF THE WEEK is on France. Could this opening match be any bigger? It's a big one alright. France though has five wins and a draw over its last six games, while Germany has three wins, two losses and a draw over its last six. The Germans have held the French to two straight draws the last two games that these countries have played in Germany. France played to two straight 3-0 wins before the Euro Cup started. Didier Deschamp enjoyed Euro Cup success back in 2000, and now he's out to lead France to victory as manager. The Germans have jus been too inconsistent of late, with a 6-0 loss to Spain, and a 2-1 defeat to North Macedonia. Germany also struggled in Russia in 2018. France is the better offensive team for sure, but I'd argue it's also the better defensive team. I say that Deschamp is out to send an early message with a decisive attack from start to finish. The play is France. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-14-21 | Canadiens +232 v. Golden Knights | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Canadiens. I had a play on the Islanders last night and just like that play, I also believe that Montreal has much more than just a "punchers chance" in Game 1, and in this series. The oddsmakers though aren't giving Les Habitens much of a chance in Game 1, or this series. This line is not accurate in my opinion considering how well the Canadiens are playing right now. And so for me, that swings the value to the undervalued underdog. I said last night that the Islanders had the defense to slow down and upset the high-powered Lightning attack, and the exact same thing can be said here of Montreal, who dispatched of two straight high-scoring machines in Toronto and Winnipeg. And the Habs beat the Jets in four straight, after going to seven games with the Leafs, which included climbing out of a 3-1 deficit. Clearly, the Knights are a great team as well. They have the No. 1 defense in the league and the No. 3 offense. I just think that the longer layoff won't help the Golden Knights offense and when considering all of the above situational factors I've listed, this price it just too steep in this situation And as I've already said as well, that for sure in my opinion swings the value to this red hot Habs team, which will be throwing everything it has and riksing life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes to try and pull of the upset. I say Montreal manages to "steal" Game 1, as it continues its improbable run to the Cup Final. The play is the Canadiens. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-14-21 | Rays v. White Sox +100 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the White Sox. This is an interesting starting pitching matchup, but I don't think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in it. Tyler Glasnow (5-2, 2.57 ERA) gets the call for the Rays and he most recently allowed one earned run over seeeven innings in a win over the Nationals on Tuesday. It's difficult to say anything negative about Glasnow, I just think he's overmatched on the road here against Chicago's ace Lance Lynn. Lynn (7-1, 1.23) will enter motivated after receiving a no-decision in his last outing, despite only conceding a single run and no walks over seven innings vs. Toronto on Wednesday. The hard-throwing right-hander has now allowed one or no earned runs in eight of his 11 starts this season. Both teams are hot. I'll point out though that the White Sox are 7-1 in their last eight home games with a moneyline attached from -105 to +115. I like Lynn to continue his incredible campaign and for Chicago to strike first in this three-game series. The play is the White Sox. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-14-21 | 76ers -158 v. Hawks | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -158 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* MONEYLINE PERFECT STORM is on the 76ers. For this selection, my advice is to just bypass the "spread" option entirely, and lay the price for the 76ers to win this game straight up. I do like the 76ers against-the-spread as well, but because this one's on the road, I have ultimately decided to lay what I deem to be a very reasonable price on the moneyline option. After getting the better of the 76ers in Game 1, it's been all Philadelphia in this series, as it's taken the next two. That includes a convincing 127-111 win here in Game 3. I expect a similar final combined score here as well. The 76ers outshot the Hawks 58.2 percent to 47.6 percent from the field in Game 3, and 47.6 percent to 23.6 percent from three-point range. This is a bad matchup for the Hawks, who will need a superhuman effort from Trae Young every single night to have any hopes at pulling of an upset. The Hawks don't have an answer for Philly big man Joel Embiid either, who had 40 points and 13 boards in Game 2. While Atlanta had success slowing down the Knicks' offense, the trio of Embiid, Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons is just too much now for the Hawks to handle. As I said, this one could be close at the end, so that's why I'm laying the price and taking the 76ers on the moneyline. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-13-21 | Suns v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 125-118 | Loss | -103 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Nuggets. I thought Denver would put up a better fight than it has in this series. My hat goes off to the Phoenix Suns, who definitely look like the team to beat in the West this year. However, I don't expect the Nuggets to get swept in this series. I believe Nikola Jokic will dig deep here and carry his team with his biggest game yet so far in the series and playoffs. And I do finally expect his teammates to give him support. The Suns are dominating in almost every facet right now, so it's really difficult to say anything negative about Chris Paul, Devin Booker and company, but after three straight victories over this really good Denver team, I absolutely am now finally predicting a letdown here for Phoenix. The Suns would love to clinch this series in front of the hometown crowd anyways! Obviously that's not really the case, Phoenix will try its hardest to end the series here and now, but with the knowledge that it can still do that at home in Game 5, it does add to our theory here of this being a "letdown" spot for the visitors today. The Nuggets are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge a ten points or greater home loss to an opponent. My "SITUATIONAL STUNNER" packages are based upon a great "situation" and this particular contest lines up great in every respect in my opinion. While the outright is clearly possible, in the end let's grab the points. The play is Denver. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-13-21 | Islanders +172 v. Lightning | Top | 2-1 | Win | 172 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Islanders. Both teams have looked excellent so far in the postseason. The Islanders average 2.71 goals per game, which ranks 21st, while they concede just 2.23, which ranks second. The Lightning average 3.21 GPG, whih ranks ninth, while allowing 2.59, which ranks sixth. Tampa's offensive numbers are better, while New York's defensive numbers are better. But overall these teams matchup well and in my opinion, I think the Isles have much more than just a "punchers chance" in Game 1. J-G Pageau leads the Isles in scoring int he playoffs with 13 points, while Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov each hae four wins piece. Andrei Vasileskiy has played all 11 of Tampa's playoff games and he has a superb 2.24 GAA. New York comes in with a chip on its shoulder and with something to prove. I say the Islanders pull off the upset in Game 1 of this Eastern Conference Semifinals matchup. The play is the Islanders. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-13-21 | Astros v. Twins UNDER 9.5 | 14-3 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the UNDER Astros/Twins. Minnesota won 5-2 here yesterday, and I envision a similar final combined score in this one as well. The visiting side hands the ball to Framber Valdez (2-0, 1.47 ERA), who gave up one run off fiv ehits with no walks and eight strikouts over eight innings in a win over the Red Sox last Tuesday. Previous to that Valdez struck out ten. He's fresh and on fire and I don't see any reason not to believe that he can't keep the good times rolling here against this shaky Twins' offense. The home side counters with ace Michael Pineda (3-3, 3.46), who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Yankees last Tuesday. Pineda had a forearm injury previous to that start, so that good news was that he's now back in 100% health for this start today. Also note that Pineda has done well in this spot for bettors, going 2-1 with a 2.83 ERA at home and 2-2 with a 2.76 ERA in all "day" games. I believe these competent starting pithers will garner most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-13-21 | Braves v. Marlins -125 | 6-4 | Loss | -125 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
My 9* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Marlins. The Marlins have won three in a row and with a chance to sweep the Braves here at home, I expect them to keep the foot on the gas Sunday. This is a starting pitching matchup which definitely favors the home side as well. The visitors go with the volatile Drew Smyly (2-3, 5.82 ERA)who gave up three runs and three walks over four innings in a no-decision to the Phillies on Tuesday. He had zero strikeouts in what has to be considered a decent performance for this confirmed "gas can." Over his last four starts Smyly has given up a combined 16 runs and has posted a 17/7 K/W over that stretch. He faces Pablo Lopez (2-3, 2.76), who looked superb in his last outing, giving up two runs over eight innings with eight strikeouts in a victory over the Rockies. Lopez enters on top form, having posted at least eight strikeouts in three of his past four outings (note that he's been particularly effective at home as well with a minuscule 1.22 ERA.) The Marlins are hungry for victories and have been the Braves' punching bag for years. Look for Miami to complete the sweep and lay this very reasonable price. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-13-21 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox +105 | Top | 18-4 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Red Sox. I think Boston will bounce back here after yesterday's 7-2 loss. Boston has won seven of its last ten overall. It took the first game of this series with the Jays 6-5, before yesterday's setback. These teams actually play again tomorrow here as well to conclude the four-game series. After that Boston hits the road for two weeks. The Jays have won six of their last ten, and they hand the ball to Robbie Ray (3-2, 3.36 ERA), who took a no-decision against the White Sox on Tuesday, allowing one run over six innings while striking out 13. Ray's been great overall this year, but if he's had one tiny knock against him, it's been his performance on the road where he's 0-1 with a pedestrian 3.91 ERA. The home side counters with Martin Perez (4-3, 3.88), who gave up six runs over two innings in a loss to the Astros in his last outing. Previous to that he went eight scoreless against Houston. Overall though Perez is enjoying a resurgent season, and interesting to note that he's been particularly effective in all "day" games this season, going 2-0 with a tiny 0.99 ERA thus far. Ray has been great, but regression seems imminent for the Jays' overacheiving starter in my opinion. And Perez looks primed for a bounce-back here in front of the home town crowd, as does his team, which enters having gone 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a five runs or greater home loss to an opponent. Great value on the hungry home side here! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-12-21 | Jazz v. Clippers -4 | Top | 106-132 | Win | 100 | 32 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Clippers. It appears more and more that it'll be the Suns and Jazz playing for the Western Conference crown. I don't think the Clippers are going to get swept and if there's no better time than now if they're going to get back into this series. The Jazz held serve on their own floor, but star Donovan Mitchell was seen limping back to the locker room. He'll play, but his health is a concern here for Utah. Especially with a 2-0 lead, it's hard to know exactly how hard to play Mitchell, or to continue to play him if they go down early in Game 3. The Clippers return home and I think Kawhi Leonard and Paul George hae more than enough in the tank to get back into this series. LA has been great in this position for bettors as well, going 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite. Utah on the other is just 2-10 ATS in its last 12 on the road against teams with winning home records. And the Clippers did win at home, as they're 27-13 ATS overall here this season. The stage is set for a LA bounce-back. Lay the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-12-21 | Rockies v. Reds -133 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Reds. The Reds are off an 11-5 win here yesterday and I think they keep the momentum rolling with Wade Miley on the hill. Miley (5-4, 2.96 ERA), is coming off a commanding outing against the Cardinals, allowing no runs over five innings while striking out eight. He'll be far from satisfied though after receiving a no-decision for his effort. Miley has allowed one or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. His counterpart today is German Marquez (4-5, 3.91), who also comes in off a strong outing vs. the A's, allowing one run over six innings. Marquez has been good over the last month, but I'll point out that he's still just 2-4 with a 4.66 ERA in all "day" games this year. The Reds are also 7-2 in their last nine off a home win in which then scored ten or more runs in. Give me Miley at home at this price for sure! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-12-21 | Padres v. Mets +110 | 1-4 | Win | 110 | 24 h 55 m | Show | |
My 9* SATURDAY NATIONAL LEAGUE PLAY is on the Mets. I like the Mets to build off yesterday's 3-2 win. The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (4-5, 2.33 ERA), who gave up three runs over five innings in what turned out to be a loss to these very Mets last Saturday. He struck out ten, but deGrom was even better on that day. But the home side counters with the equally as hot Marcus Stroman (5-4, 2.41), who beat these very Padres last Sunday, conceding a single run with seven strikeouts over seven innings. In 12 starts this year Stroman has allowed three runs or less ten times. He's also 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA at home. San Diego has scored just four runs in its past three games and it's scored more than three runs just twice in ten games. I'll take the consistent Stroman at home and bank on the Mets building on yesterday's win. Great price, the play is New York. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-12-21 | Royals v. A's -141 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 24 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Atheltics. I like the A's to build off their 4-3 win here yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Jackson Kowar (0-1, 54.00 ERA), who was crushed in his big league debut last week, allowing four runs off three hits with two walks over only 2/3's of an innings. Clearly, that wasn't how Kowar or the Royals expected that start to go and the only way he can go from here is "up," however I still think its asking a lot vs. this red hot A's side that's looking for any advantage it can get. Oakland has to be feeling confident here as well with James Kaprielian (2-1, 3.08), who took an unfortunate loss vs. the Rockies in his last outing, allowing two runs with six strikeouts over five innings. And it was at Coors Field as well. Kaprielian is 1-0 with 0.00 ERA at home and I think he's well worth the price of admission in this matchup on Saturday afternoon. And so in this battle between young starters, I'm laying the price on the already tested Kaprielian and the hungry home side. The play is Oakland. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-12-21 | Switzerland v. Wales OVER 2 | Top | 1-1 | Push | 0 | 20 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* DEBUT TOTAL is on the OVER Wales/Switzerland. Both teams have hopes of reach at least the first knockout round, but Group A is a very tough one. It will be crucial for either of these hopeful sides to earn a win here, and as such, I'm expecting more of a wide-open game, rather than a slower-paced "chess match." Wales comes in with some momentum here, as it put together a five-game unbeaten streak in qualifying to finish runner-up to Croatia. Both teams are essentially going to be fighting for second place behind Italy. Switzerland lost to Poland in the round of 16 five years ago. It's won six games in a row and it held Span to a 1-1 draw ahead of that streak. Both teams are filled with talent and each is desperate for a victory to open. I say that results in goals, not a defensive affair. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-11-21 | Suns v. Nuggets -1 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -113 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* WESTERN-CONFERENCE SEMI-FINAL PLAY is on the Nuggets. The Suns have been impressive. They beat the Lakers in six games, but there was an asterisk beside that series win, because of the injuries to both Anthony Davis, Lebron James and others. Denver isn't at full strength either, with star player Jamal Murray suffering a season-ending injury about a month before the regular season ended. The Nuggets' strength has always been their depth and experience though, and with league MVP Nikola Jokic now playing with a chip on his shoulder here in an attempt to get his team back into this series, I do indeed expect Denver to do just that in this crucial Game 3 at home. D'Andre Ayton has so far been up to the task of "slowing down" Jokic, but note that the Suns have always struggled in this building, going just 3-7 ATS in their last ten on this floor. An 0-3 hole will clearly be too much to climb out of. Will Barton and Michael Porter Jr. were non-existent over the first two games, but I say a little "home cooking" is just what the doctor ordered for Denver in Game 3. Lay the short points, the play is the Nuggets. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-11-21 | Angels -131 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Angels. The bottom line for this interleague matchup is that I feel that Shohei Ohtani could/should in fact be a bigger favorite in this starting pitching matchup. Ohtani (2-1, 2.76 ERA) most recently dominated the Mariners for his second win of the season last Friday, allowing two runs, no walks and posting ten strikeouts over six innings. Over 23.2 innings of work he's posted a sharp 30/7 K/W. Merrill Kelly (2-6, 5.16) counters for the Diamondbacks, and he most recently was shelled for five runs off six hits in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision for the Brewers. Over 70.1 innings Kelly has posted a respectable 62/19 K/W, but I still say that he's clearly overmatched going up against the red hot Ohtani. The Angels offense is white hot, its off a sweep of the Royals, and it's posted 39 combined runs over its past five games. Look for LA to open up this IL series with a convincing victory. Lay this price with confidence. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-11-21 | 76ers v. Hawks +1.5 | 127-111 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SEMI-FINAL PLAY is on the Hawks. Atlanta beat the Knicks in five games, and then it absolutely accomplished what it set out to do in the first two games in Philadelphia, and that was to simply earn a "split." Now returning home, I think this deep and talented Hawks side under the guidance of Nate McMillan have what it takes to rebound here and take the series lead again. Atlanta had a significant home-court advantage thoughout the regular season, going 25-11, and it's also 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it gave up 115 or more points in (lost Game 2 by a score of 118-102.) Finally, note that the Hawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games against a team with a winning home record, while the 76ers are just 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record. Atlanta has covered the spread at home in almost 66 percent of its games on its own floor, which is No. 1 in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia on the other hand has only covered the number in 47 perecnt of its road games thi syear, which is the eighth worst in the league overall. I'll bank on Trae Young and these young Hawks bouncing back on their own floor in Game 3. The play is Atlanta. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-11-21 | Mariners v. Indians -148 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Indians. Seattle is off an 8-3 loss in Detroit yesterday afternoon and I expect it to stumble in the opener of this three-game set as well. The visitors hand the ball to Justin Dunn (1-2, 3.18 ERA), who has been re-activated from the 10-day IL. Previous to the slight shoulder injury he looked good in a win over the Rangers with eight strikeouts over six innings, but I think the extra time off here isn't going help him. Aaron Civale (8-2, 3.49) counters for the Indians, and he comes in off a win over the Orioles, allowing four runs over six innings, striking out four and walking none. So far Civale owns a decent 58/18 K/W, and note that he's been at his best at home by going 3-1 with a 3.25 ERA thus far. Look for Civale to outduel his counterpart and for the Tribe to take advantage of this road weary Seattle side. Lay the price, the play is Cleveland. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-11-21 | Padres v. Mets UNDER 5.5 | 2-3 | Win | 101 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
My 9* NL TOTAL VALUE is on the UNDER Padres/Mets. Yes, this total is low. But for good reason in my estimation. We don't have to look any further than these two World class starting pitchers to get the reasoning behind my play on this contest. Blake Snell (2-2, 4.83 ERA) gets the nod for the visiting side and he comes in off a really strong start against the Mets just last week, holding them scoreless over seven innings, allowing just one hit and striking out ten. Snell's been better at home than on the road this year, but disproportionately so. I thinnk that starts to correct and normalize here (note that he's 2-1 with a 3.89 ERA in all "night" games.) The home side counters with ace Jacob deGrom (5-2, 0.62 ERA), who has a tiny 0.57 WHIP and who dominated the Padres last weekend, posting 11 strikeouts and giving up zero runs over seven innings. New York struggles with offensive consistency, which is bad news facing the now red hot Snell. The Padres' offense is much more prolific, but this is a bad matchup, as evidenced by last week's result vs. deGrom. Look for these two capable starters to battle each other into the latter frames and for this total to ultimately fall under the posted number. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-10-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | 3-6 | Win | 107 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the over Avs/Knights. Clearly, if Colorado is going to get back into this series and push it to a Game 7 back on home ice, it's going to have to generate offense and go on the attack from the opening face off, until the final horn. These are two of the best defense clubs in the league, but they're also both in the Top 10 on the offensive side. We've seen defensive affairs that have gone to extra periods in this series, and we've seen a couple of high-scoring blowouts as well. I think Game 6 is going to be competitive for sure, but I believe it'll be a higher-scoring contest with the Avs forced to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. The Knights are adept at playing any style of game. They're also very opportunistic. With the Colorado defense having to join the rush, it'll leave the visitors open on the backside more than normal. Colorado, I'll point out as well, has also seen the total go over the number in seven of its last nine in trying to avenge back-to-back losses to an opponent. The stage is set for some offensive fireworks in Game 6. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-10-21 | Nets v. Bucks -3.5 | Top | 83-86 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Bucks. Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets have a 2-0 lead in this series, but there's no way (in my opinion right now anyways), that the Bucks are going to get swept in this series. And what better time than now to try and get back into it with their first game back at home where they went 28-10 ATS this seaosn. Brooklyn has been decent on the road as well with a 21-17 ATS record, but it's still a lot better at home than away from friendly confines. And so this is it for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Is he the MVP? Is he able to carry this Bucks team on his back in his own building to a single victory? He's so far been "OK" in this series, averaging 24.3 points and 13.7 boards per game. Milwaukee struggled with its outside shooting in Brooklyn, but I just can't see that trend continuing for a third-straight game, especially on its own floor. The Nets were one of the worst defensive teams in the league during the regular season, but somehow they've been amazingly consistent on that end of the floor now that the playoffs are here. But with the continued absence of James Harden putting extra minutes onto KD and Kyrie Irving, fatigue is a major concern now for the Nets at this point as well. In this essentially do or die scenario, I'm banking on Giannis doing more than enough to cover this small spread. Lay the points, the play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-10-21 | Braves v. Phillies -129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* NL EAST BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Phillies. Philadelphia came away with a 2-1 win yesterday, getting a walk off home run in the bottom of the ninth to "steal" it away from the Braves. It was evenly matched throughout. I expect the "get-a-way" game to be a bit more decisive though, as I look for the Phillies to build off last night's thrilling win. The visitors hand the ball to Ian Anderson (4-3, 3.64 ERA), who was shelled for four runs over four innings in a loss to the Ddogers on Friday. Overall it's been a strong start for Anderson this year, but if he's had one "knock" against him, it's been his performance in "day" games this year (note that he's 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA in all "night" games and 0-1 with a 5.14 ERA in all "day" contests.) The home side counters with the stead Zack Wheeler (4-3, 2.51), who gave up two runs with eight strikeouts over eight eight innings in what turned out to be a very unfortunate loss to the Nationals in his last outing. Over 82.1 innings of work thus far Wheeler sports a 0.94 WHIP and a huge 100/18 K/W ratio. Also note that Wheeler's been at his best in all day games, going 3-0 with a minuscule 1.20 ERA. All things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. The play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-09-21 | Nuggets v. Suns UNDER 222.5 | Top | 98-123 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONFERENCE SEMIFINAL TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Nuggets/Suns. Game 1 went under the number in the Suns 122-105 win, but I expect more of a defensive affair in Game 2. The Nuggets have been leaning on big man Nikola Jokic all season, and just yesterday he finally earned his first MVP award ever. Jokic and the Nuggets are going to be even extra motivated now to deliver an upset victory, before this series shifts back to Denver. The Suns played to four straight "unders" to open their series with the Lakers, but they've now seen the total go over in two straight. We know Phoenix can score, but the big difference this year for the Suns has been their progression on the defensive end. I think the Suns can duplicate their defensive performance from Game 1 here, although I think they'll have their hands full this time for a full four-quarters with an experienced and aggressive Denver defense. When I look at this game from a situational stand point, it definitely sets up as more of a defensive affair, than a run-and-gun shootout in my opinion. But note as well, Denver has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss of 15 or more points against an opponent. This number is a little high, the play is the under. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-09-21 | Bruins -125 v. Islanders | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -125 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* EAST-DIVISIONAL FINAL GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Bruins. The Bruins dropped a crucial Game 5 at home to the Islanders, but I think that Tuukka Rask and the visiting side will be up to the task to send this one back home for a Game 7. The Islanders are now running on fumes after back-to-back victories, and I think they'll predictably stumble here. New York has superior defensive numbers, ranked No. 2 overall, but Boston isn't far behind, ranked fifth in that department. The Islanders are better at home than on the road, but the Bruins are a near-perfect 7-1 in their last eight in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they allowed five or more goals in. Boston was down big in Game 5 and almost mounted the comeback. As I say, New York is now clearly the one that's fatigued in this battle, and I say that Boston takes advantage. This is the best price yet on the Bruins so far in this series, and it's the right time to back them in this spot as well. The play is Boston in Game 6. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-09-21 | Astros v. Red Sox -132 | 8-3 | Loss | -132 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
My 9* AL SUPER PICK is on the Red Sox. I like Nate Eovaldi and the Red Sox to bounce back here and avenge yesterday's 7-1 defeat to the visiting Astros. Houston sends Jake Odorizzi (0-3, 7.16 ERA), who faced these very Red Sox last Thursday and gave up three runs with three walks over three innings. Odorizzi struggled with his command, needing 72 pitches to get through the three innings. He's now failed to pitch five full innings in four of his five starts this season (he's been particularly bad on the road as well, going 0-1 with an 8.78 ERA.) Eovaldi (7-2, 3.78) has won three straight, allowing a combined four earned runs over that span. He's been better on the road than at home, but I like that trend to start correcting itself here. I think Boston bounces back easily at home here and all things considered, I believe this line could/should in fact be much larger. Great value on the Red Sox on Wednesday night. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-09-21 | Braves v. Phillies -123 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* NL GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Phillies. I had a play on Aaron Nola and the Phillies yesterday, and that turned out to be my only losing MLB pick out of my three. Suffice it to say, I absolutely think the home side can bounce back here and I think the price is great as well in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Tucker Davidson (0-0, 2.31 ERA), who is making his second straight start and third start of the season for the Braves. Davidson will likely remain in the rotation out of neccessity. The sample size is obviously very small, and I think that inevitable regression is in store, especially in this difficult road venue. The home side counters with Zach Eflin (2-5, 4.10), who gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to the Rays in his last outing. Eflin's last start was skipped over to give him extra rest. Note that while he's 1-4 with a 5.75 ERA on the road this year, Eflin's consistently been at his best at home, going 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA. Look for the revenge-minded home side to bounce back here in this favorable matchup and for Eflin to continue his strong play at home. Lay the reasonable price, the play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-09-21 | Mets -141 v. Orioles | 14-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Mets. Both staring pitchers are coming off losses. The Mets are off a loss to the Orioles to open up this interleague series, falling 10-3, but with what I believe to be the vastly superior starter on the hill for it today, I like New York and Taijuan Walker to both bounce back here in this favorable matchup. Walker (4-2, 2.17 ERA), gave up four runs over five innings in a loss to the Padres in his last outing. It was his first loss since April though. Walker's been better at home than on the road, but he still hasa 3.35 ERA away from friendly confines. I like Walker a lot here, especially against the volatile Matt Harvey (3-6, 6.62). Harvey has been hit or miss all year, with his only decent outings coming at the start of the season. Harvey's been better at home than on the road, although barely with a 1-3, 5.23 ERA record. The Mets are 6-1 in their last seven vs. a right-handed starter and I think that Harvey is for another long night. Considering the talent discrepancy on the hill for these two starting pitchers, I think this line could/should in fact be much larger. I have no problem laying this price on the revenge-minded visiting side. The play is New York. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-08-21 | Clippers +4 v. Jazz | Top | 109-112 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show |
10* THIRD ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on the Clippers. It took the Clippers seven games to advance, but I think they can keep the momentum rolling here after back-to-back victories over the pesky Mavericks. The Jazz have been off for over a week, and yes, I do absolutely think that "rest" will lead to "rust" here. Kawhi Leonard has refound his MVP form after a slow start to the playoffs. He enters this series off a huge Game 7, pouring in 28 points and grabbing ten boards with nine assists and four steals. Marcus Morris and Paul George have also found their stride. Utah rolled over the Grizzlies in five games, but that was almost a week ago. Can Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert pick up where they left off? I'll point out that the Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last six on the road, while the Jazz are just 1-4 ATS in their last five when playing with three or more days of rest. Timing and chemistry is crucial to success in the playoffs. The Clippers have "found their groove" finally in my opinion. I'll stop short in calling for an outright upset, but in a contest which I see coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is LA. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-08-21 | Royals v. Angels -140 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* American League BLOWOUT play of the MONTH is on the Angels. I think the Angels will build off their big 8-3 win here last night over the Royals. Kansas City hands the ball to rookie Kris Bubic (1-0, 2.12 ERA) who is already showing signs of major regression after a sharp opening vitory, allowing four runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Thursday. Clearly, the book is still out on Bubic. The home side counters with the steady Andrew Heaney (3-3, 4.76), who gave up one run over seven innings, while striking out seven in a victory over the Giants on Tuesday. Heaney has admittedly been better on the road than at home this season, but LA is 7-1 in its last eight after scoring eight or more runs in a home victory in its last outing. I think the Angels are seeing the ball well right now and everything points to Bubic "getting the hook" early. Look for Heaney to build off his last start and to get back on track in front of the home town crowd. This one has "BLOWOUT" written all over it. The play is LA. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-08-21 | Mariners v. Tigers -104 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
My 9* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Tigers. Marco Gonzalez (1-3, 5.01 ERA) comes in off a rare strong start for the Mariners, going four innings against the A's and allowing one run with six strikeouts. Gonzalez returned from after a month off from injury and looked fresh, but I'll point out that he's still a disastrous 1-2 with a 6.56 ERA on the road this season. Matthew Boyd (2-6, 3.90) is coming off an outing to forget for the Tigers, allowing five runs over five innings in what turned out to be a no-decision against the Brewers. Starts like that have been few and far between for Boyd the last two years though, and I like him to bounce back here, as note that he owns a sharp 2.80 ERA at home so far this season. Seattle struggles with consistency on the road. So does its starting pitcher Gonzalez. Great price on the hungry home side and motivated Boyd. The play is Detroit. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-08-21 | Braves v. Phillies -147 | 9-5 | Loss | -147 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH is on the Phillies. I think the Braves are going to stumble here after taking two of three from the defending champs at home over the weekend. After a poor stretch Philadelphia has played better of late, especially offensively (plating 35 runs over its last four games, going 3-1 in that span.) This is a major mismatch on the mound. I don't normally lay chalk of this size, unless it's warranted. And in this case, I love Aaron Nola at home. Nola (4-4, 3.84 ERA) earned a win over the Reds last Tuesday, allowing three runs over five innings. Nola for sure has been much better at home than on the road this season, and there's no reason not to think that that trend won't continue here (he's 2-3 with a 5.05 ERA on the road and 2-1 with a 2.38 ERA at home.) His counterpart today is confirmed "gas can" Drew Smyly (2-3, 5.98 ERA), who gave up three runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Wednesday. Over his last three starts he's been rocked for 13 runs and five home runs. Considering the massive talent discrepancy on the mound between these starting pitchers today, I believe the price here is warranted. Lay the price, the play is Philadelphia. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-08-21 | Lightning v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Lightning/Hurricanes. It's do or die for Carolina. As good as the Hurricanes have looked all season and as much potential as they showed, they're clearly still no match for the defending champs. The Lightning have a big opportunity to end this series here and now, but clealry the Canes won't be going down without a fight. The first three games of this series were a tight defensive affair, but Game 4 turned into a shootout in the Lightning's 6-4 win. And one of the biggest reasons behind that was that the Hurricanes were forced to be the aggressor to try and get back into the series. They couldn't afford to play a defensive style of game and come out on top against the equally as defensive-minded Lightning, instead they had to push the pace from start to finish. And that's again the case here. And by pushing the pace with their defenseman in the offensive attack, it leaves Carolina open on the backend to this opportunistic Lightning offense. I say Game 5 will have a similar final combined score as what we saw in Game 4. The play is the over. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-07-21 | Cubs v. Padres -119 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Padres. The Padres have now lost six of their last ten after back-to-back home losses to the Mets. The Friars will now look to turn the page and get back to their winning ways here, against a Cubs team that's primed for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion. Chicago comes to town after losing two of three in San Francisco, but coming from behind last night for a satisfying 4-3 victory in the finale. Ryan Weathers (2-2, 2.06 ERA and 0.99 WHIP), gets the nod for the home side here, he most recently lost to these very Cubs on Tuesday, allowing four runs over five innings. It was easily his worst start of the year. The good news though is that Weathers has been better at home than on the road witha tiny 1.98 ERA. Adbert Alzolay (4-4, 3.63) is coming off a win for Chicago, allowing one run with seven strikeouts over five innings over these very Padres last Wednesday. The rookie's been sharp so far, but I think he's still in over his head here in this difficult road venue. Despite how well Alzolay has thrown of late, I believe Weathers at home here is the correct call. And at this price, I love the Padres to bounce back as well. The play is indeed, San Diego. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-07-21 | Jets +131 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Jets. I know it's hard to believe that Winnipeg could muster up a win here after three straight losses, but in this back-to-back scenario, I like the Jets to do just that. Montreal has been unbelievable. The goaltending play of Carey Price has been phenomenal. Winnipeg has played well though recently in the second game of a back-to-back, going 5-2 in its last seven in that position. The Jets numbers for the season are still superior(Winnipeg averages 2.83 GPG and it allows 2.33, while Montreal averages 2.22 GPG, while conceding 2.33) and I just don't think the Canadiens have it in them to complete the four-game sweep here. The Habs had to come back from a 1-3 deficit to beat the heavily favored Leafs in seven games, and they've now won three straight in this series. I say Montreal's win streak ends at six and Winnipeg digs deep, plays with pride and guts out at least a single victory in this series. The play is the Jets. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-07-21 | Bucks +2 v. Nets | Top | 86-125 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKLY WIPE-OUT WINNER is on the Bucks. I like the Bucks to bounce back here and find a way to "steal" Game 2. So far in the playoffs the Bucks are averaging 116.2 PPG, while conceding 101.4. Clearly, Game 1 didn't go as planned. Expect to see another big game from star Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 25.6 points and 14.2 rebounds. The Nets are averaging 122 points and allowing 111.3. No big surprise that Kevin Durant has so far led the way offensively, as he's averaged 32 points and three assists so far. The loss of James Harden is a big one for the Nets. Now Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant have to log considerably more minutes. They're a handful, but the Bucks have to be liking their chances for a bounce back here (note that they're 5-2 ATS in their last seven when playing on one days rest.) Milwaukee shot terribly from the floor in Game 1, which is very atypical. Look for the Bucks to come out and take advantage of what will be a tired Nets side. Obviously the outright is possible, but let's grab the points. The play is Milwaukee. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-06-21 | Avalanche v. Golden Knights -111 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Golden Knights. I think the Golden Knights offer fantastic value at home here to even this series back up. The Avalanche's six-game win streak came to an end in dramatic fashion in Game 3 and I think that Colorado will suffer another letdown here, before it heads back home for Game 5. The Golden Knights peppered Avs' netminder Philipp Grubauer with 43 shots last time out and there's no reason not to think that they can't duplicate that effort again here as well. These teams numbers are evenly matched on both ends of the ice. With a line like this, clearly the oddsmakers think these teams are very evenly matched as well. The momentum though has swung now in favor of the Knights after their Game 3 victory, which was Colorado's first setback so far in the playoffs. I say Colorado has now lost its momentum, and with the knowledge that it'll be returning home for Game 5, I believe it gets caught flat-footed tonight. The play is the Golden Knights. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-06-21 | Red Sox v. Yankees -142 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -142 | 27 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* 37-YEAR CLUB PLAY is on the Yankees. Boston won here last night by a score of 7-3, and I think the Yanks will respond here in the finale and avenge that setback. New York is clearly desperate again here after losing three in a row and seven of its last ten overall. Boston enters on the other end of the spectrum, satisfied after three straight victories and winning six of its last ten overall. And with a single interleague game at home against Miami, before seven games in a row at home against Houston and Toronto, this is also a "look ahead" position for the visiting side. Clearly, New York can ill afford to look past anyone these days. Garrett Richards (4-4, 3.75 ERA), is coming off a loss against Houston on Tuesday for the Red Sox. Over a three-game stretch he's posted a poor 14/12 K/W. Domingo German (4-3, 3.27) has been much more consistent for this inconsistent Yankees team than his counterpart has been for his squad. German most recently allowed thre runs over five innings in a no-decision to the Rays on Tuesday. Over 55 innings of work German owns a sharp 52/10 K/W. I like German for sure in this starting pitching matchup, but I'll also point out that the Yanks are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge back-to-back home losses to an opponent. All things considered, this line could/should in fact be a lot larger in my opinion. The value swings to New York in this one. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-06-21 | Reds v. Cardinals -120 | 8-7 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* PITCHING MISMATCH is on the St. Louis Cardinals. I like the Cards to dig deep here and find a way to deliver in the finale of this four-game series and to break their current four-game slide. In fact, St. louis has lost six of its last seven overall. After three straight wins in this series, and with a day off before a home series against Milwaukee, I look for Cincinnati to indeed have a predictable letdown here. Wade Miley (5-4, 3.26 ERA) has been solid for the Reds, he most recently beat the Phillies on Monday, giving up on run over six innings and striking out six. If he's had one "knock" against him this year though, it's been his play on the road where he enters having gone a pedestrian 2-2 with a 4.01 ERA. The home side counters with John Gant (4-1, 1.60) who received an unfortunate no-decision against the Dodgers in his last outing, giving up no runs and with four strikeouts over six innings. Note that it was his second straight scoreless performance against a quality opponent. With Gant on the mound, expect St. Louis to finally get off the schneid here (and this price is fantastic considering in my opinion as well.) The play is St. Louis. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-06-21 | Astros v. Blue Jays -113 | 6-3 | Loss | -113 | 21 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Blue Jays. Toronto won here 6-2 yesterday and I believe there are also many favorable factors working in its favor in the finale of this series. Houston hands the ball to Luis Garcia (4-3, 2.89 ERA), who gave up one run over seven innings in a win over Boston on Tuesday. Garcia has been fantastic so far, but regression seems imminent here for the rookie in this difficult road venue. The Jays' Steven Matz (6-2, 4.22) gave up four runs (only two earned) over four innings in Game 2 of a double-header last Sunday, coming away with a no-decision in the end. Matz has performed well in this spot all season, and there's no reason not to think he can't continue that trend, as he's 2-0 with a tiny 2.11 ERA in all "day" games. Vladamir Guerrero Jr. is batting .533 with two home runs and five RBI's over four games in Buffalo, and I expect the Jays' slugger is in line for another productive game here as well. Toronto is playing well on this field and in my opinion, Matz should be a bigger favorite in this matchup despite how well Garcia has thrown of late. The play is the Blue Jays. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-06-21 | Hawks +3 v. 76ers | Top | 128-124 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Hawks. Whether 76ers' big man Joel Embiid plays or not, I like the visiting side to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Atlanta made the surging Knicks look like the Knicks of old in its opening round series win. The Hawks were dominant defensively, effectively slowing down the red hot Julius Randle. Clint Capela is a force to be reckoned with down low for the Hawks, and he's an X-factor in this play for me. Trae Young averages 29 points and 9.8 assists against a stingy Knicks defense, and there's no reason not to think those numbers can't improve here against a less impressive 76ers' defense. With Embiid either out, or hobbled, the door is open here for Atlanta in Game 1. Nate McMillan has been a big difference-maker for Young and company and I believe he'll have something up his sleeve as well for the 76ers today. Outright win? Of course. But in the end my official recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can. The play is the Hawks. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-05-21 | Mets v. Padres +118 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE YEAR is the Padres. San Diego held on for a 2-0 win last night, and I believe it'll find a way to get the job done here as well against Mets' ace Jacob DeGrom. DeGrom (4-2, 0.71 ERA), went six scoreless against the Diamondbacks on Monday. DeGrom has been dominant both at home and on the road this year. It's hard to imagine though the hard-throwing right-hander keeping up this elite pace for too much longer. Especially in the warming months in San Diego. DeGrom is amazing, but I just think that Padres' starter Joe Musgrove (4-4, 2.08) will be up to the task to match his counterpart inning for inning. Musgrove most recently pitched five innings of relief in a loss in Houston and gave up zero runs in the no-decision. Musgrove owns a 79/12 K/W and 0.76 WHIP. As I said, I absolutely believe Musgrove can match DeGrom at home here. The Mets anemic offense couldn't muster up one measley run last night, and I can't see the unit generating much of anything tonight either. The play here is clear. The play is the Padres! Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-05-21 | Bucks +4 v. Nets | Top | 107-115 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER on the Bucks. This is going to be an interesting series. I think that Game 1 will be decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, and in a scenario like that I'm definitely going to grab the points. Milwaukee rolled to four straight victories over the Heat, while Brooklyn needed five games to get past the Celtics. The Bucks led the league in scoring with 120.1 PPG. Giannis led the way with 23 points, 15 boards and 7.8 assists against the Heat. The Nets averaged 118.6 PPG during the regular season. Kevin Duran, Kyrie Irving and James Harden played just eight games together in the regular season. There are a couple of strong trends worth mentioning here, as Brooklyn is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine at home here against the Bucks, while Milwaukee is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as a road dog in the +3.5 to +5.5 points range. As I stated off the top, this one is going to come down to the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck...Larry | |||||||
06-05-21 | Dodgers v. Braves +133 | 4-6 | Win | 133 | 27 h 45 m | Show | |
8* FALSE-FAVORITE on the Braves. The Dodgers pulled away for a 9-5 victory here last night, but I think that the Braves will bounce-back here on Saturday. LA goes with Clayton Kershaw (7-4, 3.33 ERA), who enters off his worst start of the season, getting crushed for five earned runs off sevne hits over six innings in a setback to the Giants on Sunday. Listen, overall Kershaw's been great, but he also certainly hasn't been perfect. His counterpart today Charlie Morton (4-2, 4.11) hasn't been perfect this season either, but he enters off a strong outing against the Nationals on Monday, allowing three runs with six strikeouts over six innings. Over 57 innings of work Morton now sports a sharp 67-21 K/W. The Braves are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they conceded eight or more runs in as well. I think the stage is set for the minor upset here. The wrong team is favored in this one, I'm rolling with the revenge-minded Braves on Saturday. Good luck...Larry |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
William Burns | $1,056 |
Ross Benjamin | $790 |
Joey Tron | $511 |
Ricky Tran | $501 |
Dan Kaiser | $445 |
Sean Murphy | $296 |
Jimmy Boyd | $286 |
Matt Fargo | $220 |
Ray Monohan | $36 |