Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
12-01-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 193 | 95-79 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 22 m | Show | |
Memphis is desperate after losing 9 straight games. They know they have to up their tempo and get into an offensive flow. After going 6 straight games without breaching the 95 point plateau on offense a sense of urgency now permeates around the team. This is the second of back-to-back games against each other this Friday night at the FedEx Forum in Memphis, Tenn. The first meeting saw the Spurs grab a 104-95 win, which eclipsed the 194 point Total and similar score is not out of the question, and actually a high probability outcome according to my own numbers making this a viable OVER wager. SAN ANTONIO is 9-0 OVER L/9 in a road game where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points dating back to last season with a combined average of 206.6 ppg going on the board. MEMPHIS in 17 games versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season have seen a combined average score of 199.3 ppg scored.SAN ANTONIO is 17-6 OVER L/23 when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points with a combined average score of 201.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after failing to cover the spread in 6 or more consecutive games are 37-12 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play on the OVER | |||||||
11-30-17 | Bulls v. Nuggets UNDER 208.5 | 110-111 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 58 m | Show | |
Chicago enters this game vs Denver averaging just 94.8 ppg on offense (worst in the league), and have failed to eclipse the 99 point plateau in 5 straight games, behind a 17th ranked pace, that should even slow down more tonight in the high altitudes of the Mile High city vs a team that they know they can't run and gun with. Meanwhile, the Nuggets own the 14th ranked offense, and the 13th ranked pace, so their in the middle of the pack , as far as speed and offensive production goes. What I'm betting happens tonight, is what most sides, with sluggish offenses do when they go into Denver, and that is play a conservative energy conserving style of basketball, that more often than not translates into a lower scoring game than many might anticipate. Under is 12-4 in Bulls last 16 vs. Western Conference.Under is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 vs. NBA Northwest.Under is 5-0 in Nuggets last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Under is 9-4 in Nuggets last 13 home games. CHICAGO is 45-20 UNDER L/65 versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting 24 free throws/game or less with a combined average score of 199.4 ppg getting scored. CHICAGO in 8 in non-conference games this season have seen a combined average score of 196.3 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 23-9 UNDER L/32 after 2 or more consecutive losses dating back to last season with the combined average score of 200.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - after being beaten by the spread by 24 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% on the season are 65-26 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - an explosive offensive team (102 or less PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG), after scoring 90 points or less are 35-12 UNDER L/21 seasons for 75% conversion rate for Totals bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - off a home loss against opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 45-17 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for totals bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection | |||||||
11-30-17 | South Florida v. Elon UNDER 134.5 | 78-79 | Loss | -107 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
South Florida plays a defensive system, and their scores so far this season have been indicative of this as they average a lowly 62.1 ppg on offense while the defense is staunch allowing just 63.1 ppg. Meanwhile, Elon has shown some offensive explosiveness, this season, but they have played overall very strong defense, especially as hosts as is evident by allowing just 63.5 ppg. When these teams played last season the final score was Elon 74 S.Florida 61 ( 135) and now the linesmakers are setting the line based in part on last seasons meeting. My own projections make the output from both teams to be in a low to mid 60's which is a good indicator of this game going under the set total. ELON is 44-8 UNDER when they allow 61 to 66 points with a combined average score of 129.9 ppg on average being scored.ELON in their L/57 versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game have seen a combined average score of 128.1 ppg scored. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-30-17 | Texas Tech v. Seton Hall UNDER 137 | 79-89 | Loss | -115 | 3 h 32 m | Show | |
UNDER ARMOUR REUNION - Madison Square Garden - New York, NY I expect these two heavyweights to play a physical grueling defensive game that remains on the low side of the number. Texas Tech is allowing just 55.3 ppg on the season, while Seton Hall is allowing 64.7 ppg mostly in garbage time when using their fringe bench players. SETON HALL is 8-1 UNDER in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game with a combined average of 127.1 ppg scored.TEXAS TECH is 9-2 UNDER L/11 in road games versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game with a combined average of 132.9 ppg scored. TEXAS TECH is 9-1 UNDER when playing on a neutral court with a combined average of 133.6 ppg scored. Neutral court teams against the total (TEXAS TECH) - dominant rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 7+ per game, in November games are 540-398 to the UNDER for a 58% conversion rate on the blind for bettors dating back 20 seasons. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection | |||||||
11-29-17 | Evansville v. New Mexico UNDER 140 | 59-78 | Win | 100 | 3 h 18 m | Show | |
Evansville is a defense first team, that averages just 66.2 ppg on the season on offense while allowing 58.2 ppg on defense. I'm not sure that is what HC Simmons had planned for this season, but watching this group is a good way to lull yourself to sleep. Meanwhile, New Mexico is team still trying to find its way under a run and gun system, that has stalled in recent games , scoring just 65, 67 points in their L/2 games. Tonight I'm betting in their usual methodical way that Evansville makes this into a slow grinding affair, and slows the flow of their opposition. NEW MEXICO is 15-4 UNDER L/19 after a game where they made 88% of their free throws or better with a combined average of 134.7 ppg going on the board . Evansville is is 8-1 UNDER L/9 in November games dating back to last season with a combined average of 128.4 ppg scored. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-29-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs OVER 194 | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
HC Fizdale is no longer the coach of the Memphis Grizzlies after his team struggled for much of this season and on a current 8 game losing streak mostly because of offensive production problems . His firing came after he benched star forward Mac Gasol, which started the firestorm. Now with a lot to prove and 2 days rest I expect the Grizzlies new HC J.B. Bickerstaff and company to come out fired up tonight, and really push their pace up a few notches, in an effort to get a offensive flow going which I'm betting results in a higher scored than expected by the lines-makers. Over is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 games playing on 2 days rest.Over is 9-4 in Spurs last 13 vs. NBA Southwest.Over is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. SAN ANTONIO in their L/22 when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points have seen a combined average of 202 ppg scored. Memphis in 9 games vs winning sides this season have seen a combined average of 197.2 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (MEMPHIS) - after failing to cover the spread in 6 or more consecutive games are 25-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play OVER | |||||||
11-29-17 | Southern Miss v. South Alabama UNDER 129.5 | 61-69 | Loss | -113 | 3 h 42 m | Show | |
Southern Miss is averaging 63 ppg on offense this season on the road while allowing just 68.9 points per game is a team that is struggling a they try to continue to deal with sanctions from past regressions, that we don't need to get into here. But they have problems with their personell and continue to try fluidity. Meanwhile South Alabama is averaging 64 ppg on offense, while allowing just 61.9 ppg overall, in a very slow paced methodical system. Considering both teams offensive issues and the systems that they play a lower scoring game must be expected, as the linesmakers suggest with their number. SOUTHERN MISS is 9-1 UNDER L/10 in road games versus poor passing teams, averaging 12 or less assists/game over the last few seasons with a combined average of 124 ppg going on the board and is 8-1 UNDER L/9 in road games versus poor shooting teams - making 42% or less of their shots with a combined average of 115.4 ppg scored. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-29-17 | Arkansas State v. Cleveland State UNDER 141.5 | 72-75 | Loss | -102 | 3 h 38 m | Show | |
Cleveland State 's offense has been muted this season, , and they are averaging just 63.4 ppg so far .Their top scorer from last season, Rob Edwards transferred to Arizona State, which is not a good omen going forward , for a team that ranked 9th in offense on the Horizon Conference last season. This team is trying to play fast, but its obvious issues continue to arise and their flow is bad, and won't get much better in this spot. Meanwhile Arkansas State is averaging just 63.2 ppg on the road this season after trying to have to replace their leading scorer from last season, Devin Carter 16.4 ppg. They are trying to use a up -tempo pace, but its really has not shown any effectiveness despite of more possessions. New HC Balado inherited a recruiting class that looks like its built for comfort an not speed. Also a continued lack of conversion at the charity stripe remains a concern ,which also hampers this team output. So we have two teams trying to figure things out offensively, which bodes well for this tilt staying under the set total. CLEVELAND ST is 15-1 UNDER L/16 in home games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game over the last few seasons with a combined average of 124.3 ppg scored..CLEVELAND ST is 8-0 UNDER in home games after a game where they covered the spread which happened last time out. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-28-17 | CS-Northridge v. California UNDER 146.5 | 63-83 | Win | 100 | 6 h 51 m | Show | |
My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. Under is 5-1 in Matadors last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.Under is 4-1 in Matadors last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 4-1 in Golden Bears last 5 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game. CS-NORTHRIDGE is 29-15 UNDER in road games when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 20% to 40%). HC Theus is 15-4 UNDER L/19 after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers. CBB Road teams against the total (CS-NORTHRIDGE) - bad team from last season who won only 20% to 40% of their games, after 2 or more consecutive losses are long term 125-77 UNDER L/20 seasons for a 61% conversion rate on the blind. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-28-17 | Maine v. Georgetown UNDER 143.5 | 55-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. Georgetown/Maine UNDER the set total | |||||||
11-28-17 | Suns v. Bulls UNDER 213 | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show | |
Two rebuilding teams go head to head tonight when Phoenix visits the Chicago Bulls . With both teams defenses a big concern, I'm expecting both sides to play special attention to being stoppers and being physical, in a game I have pegged at staying under the total. Chicago is especially fragile as they rank last in the NBA scoring averaging just 94.3 ppg which makes them even more interested in turning this into a slow grinding affair. CHICAGO is 33-17 UNDER L/50 when playing against a team with a losing record with a combined average of 202 ppg going on the board and 20-7 UNDER versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game with a combined average score of 200.7 ppg going on the board and also 16-5 UNDER /21 in home games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game with a combined average of 201.9 ppg getting scored.CHICAGO is 14-3 UNDER L/17 in home games in non-conference games . CHICAGO is 10-1 UNDER L/11 in home games after 3 or more consecutive losses. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHOENIX) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (25% or less) are 25-5 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for Totals bettors. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (CHICAGO) - tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 36-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-28-17 | Heat v. Cavs UNDER 209.5 | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 10 h 55 m | Show | |
The Cavs, who beat the 76ers 113-91 on Monday night in Philadelphia, will play consecutive nights for the first time since Oct. 28-29 and now this veteran laden team will be on tired legs and ready to slow things down again. Last night it was the Cavs ability to slow the flow of their younger opposition down, and come out of that game with a easy DD win. Tonight, I'm betting on the same tactics and game plan to make this into a conservative tilt, vs a Miami side that also practices a controlled style of defensive play behind key cog Hassan Whiteside. .Note: The Heat have held 4 of their L/5 opponents to under 98 points or less. While the Cavs have held 3 of their L/4 opponents, to 99 points or less. Miami is ranked 21st in the pace in the league, 7th best ppg allowed in the NBA and rank 26th in offensive points production. Cleveland ranks 12th in the league in pace. MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER L/10 in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) with a combined average of 193.5 ppg going on the board.MIAMI is 30-14 UNDER L/44 as a road underdog of 6 points or less with a combined average score of 194 ppg going on the score board. Under is 20-8 in Heat last 28 road games.Under is 3-0-1 in Cavaliers last 4 overall.Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 games playing with no rest.Under is 12-4-1 in the last 17 meetings in Cleveland. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (MIAMI) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 73-27 UNDER for a 73% conversion rate for totals bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-28-17 | Florida State v. Rutgers UNDER 141 | 78-73 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 24 m | Show | |
My College Hoops Selections are based on my own power rankings and proprietary software projections . All factors are researched - relevant trends, line moves, coaching, current stats , historical archives, and injury updates are all considered in my final selections. In other words no stone is left unturned in my quest for a profitable outcome to my recommendations , whether they are sides or totals. FLORIDA ST is 22-10 UNDER L/32 vs. poor free throw shooting teams - making 63% or less of their attempts .FLORIDA ST is 8-0 UNDER L/8 in road games after a combined score of 175 points or more which happened last time out in a 113-78 win vs Citadel. CBB teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (FLORIDA ST) - excellent team - shooting 45% or better with a defense of 42% or less on the season, hot shooting team - 5 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 54-22 UNDER the L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for under bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-27-17 | Wild v. Jets OVER 5.5 | 2-7 | Win | 110 | 3 h 30 m | Show | |
Minnesota Wild goalie Devan Dubnyk, has allowed 16 goals in his past four games after posting three consecutive shutouts. He's gone from hero to zero, and is now in a big time karmic funk. Meanwhile, the Jets, have been bitten by the injury bug over the past week and could be without their top goalie Steve Mason tonight after he was injured last game. (- Heleybucyk expected to start-three of his L/5 home starts have gone over the set total) . As far as this game is concerned , I can see both teams pressing and for enough goals to be scored to get us over the total. Over is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings in Winnipeg.Over is 7-1 in Jets last 8 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.Over is 9-4-1 in Jets last 14 following a loss of 3 or more goals.Over is 6-2 in Jets last 8 home games.Over is 4-1-1 in Wild last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.Over is 6-2 in Wild last 8 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 days situation. WINNIPEG is 14-5 OVER L/19 against good starting goalies - saving 91.5% or better of shots against with a combined average of 6.6 gpg scored.WINNIPEG is 21-9 OVER L/30 against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game with a combined average of 6.8 gpg scored. MINNESOTA is 8-1 OVER L/9 after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season , with a combined average of 7.4 gpg scored. ( they lost 6-3 to St.Louis). Play OVER | |||||||
11-27-17 | Nets v. Rockets UNDER 228.5 | 103-117 | Win | 100 | 9 h 20 m | Show | |
The Rockets as we all know by now are an explosive offensive juggernaut, but their defensive 17.5 net rating is something that may be over looked by the average punter. Their ability to be stopper was on display last time out against the Knicks who scored 29 points over the first 7 1/2 minutes of that game , only to fall short of that mark in any of three following three quarters of action. Meanwhile, Brooklyn after struggling with D, of late, finally played the kind of game their coach wants from them more consistently holding the Memphis Grizzlies to 88 points in a win. Last night the Nets had success taking their time with their attack, and being selective with shots, and tonight I expect they will try to slow down the game via slower paced effort vs what they know is a dangerous run and gun opponent. I'm also betting on the Rockets D, showing us their under rated abilities as well in a tilt I have pegged to stay on the low side of the number. Note: Houston has held 4 of their L/7 opponents under 96 points or less. Under is 9-4-3 in Nets last 16 games following a straight up win.Under is 4-1-1 in Nets last 6 road games.BROOKLYN in 7 games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season have seen a average combined score of 218 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 3 straight wins by 10 points or more are 34-8 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for Totals bettors. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (BROOKLYN) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins are 57-24 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection | |||||||
11-27-17 | Cavs v. 76ers UNDER 224 | 113-91 | Win | 100 | 3 h 44 m | Show | |
The Philadelphia 76ers and their home crowd are going to be wild tonight with excitement as their team continues to grow and show competitiveness. Bigger and better things are on the horizon for the Sixers.. But first they have to deal with the Cavaliers. QUOTE: "Cleveland is going to come in, and it's going to be amazing for the building," coach Brett Brown said. "This building is wild. How about our fans? Are you kidding me? I can't even talk to my coaching staff sometimes and they're a foot from me. It's fantastic. What a great thing for our city." END QUOTE But now irrational exuberance may get the best of the Sixers, as a veteran laden Cleveland Cavaliers come to town, looking to slow down any early momentum the home team has by playing methodical slow paced style hoops, while saving their best for last quarter and a half. This I'm betting will curtail both teams scoring out put making this a much lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect . PHILADELPHIA is 18-5 UNDER L/23 in home games after a combined score of 235 points or more with a combined average of 199 ppg going on the board. PHILADELPHIA is 26-9 UNDER L/25 in home games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite with a combined average of 185.2 ppg going on the board .Under is 4-0-1 in Cavaliers last 5 vs. NBA Atlantic.Under is 7-2 in 76ers last 9 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Under is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings in Philadelphia. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (CLEVELAND) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 3 or more consecutive wins are 25-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for Totals bettors. teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 3 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 40-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-26-17 | Duke v. Florida UNDER 162.5 | 87-84 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 17 m | Show | |
PK 80 INVITATIONAL - Final Rnd - Moda Center - Portland, OR These upper tier teams will do battle in test of wills . Both are deep and explosive but are also extremely capable on the defensive end. When two behemoth teams like this do battle its not uncommon for a conservative wait and see approach from both opponents. This will see a the score much more muted than the linesmakers and the public might expect. CBB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 (DUKE/Florida ) - playing their 2nd road game in 3 days, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better) are 33-6 UNDER L/20 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for totals bettors. Neutral court teams where the total is between 160 and 169.5 points (DUKE/Florida) - playing their 2nd game in 3 days, in a game involving two top-level teams (80% or better ). are 27-3 UNDER L/20 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-26-17 | Harvard v. CS-Fullerton UNDER 138.5 | 61-70 | Win | 100 | 4 h 34 m | Show | |
WOODEN CLASSIC - Final Rnd - Titan Gym - Fullerton, CA CS Fullerton plays a Defensive slowed paced deliberate type of basketball, and can not be easily pushed into play run and gun ball. This I'm betting will result in a low scoring affair with their counterparts Harvard this evening. HARVARD is 21-9 UNDER L/30 in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game with a combined average of 130.8 ppg going on the board and is 24-9 UNDER in road games versus poor offensive teams - scoring 64 or less points/game with a combined average of 126.7 ppg scored. CS-FULLERTON is 6-0 UNDER L/6 when playing only their 3rd game in a week with a combined average of with a combined average of 134.8 ppg scored. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-26-17 | Bears v. Eagles UNDER 44 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 74 h 5 m | Show | |
We all know the Eagles bring an explosive offense to this game , but their defense must be respected. Actually Both the Eagles and the Bears are defensively capable, with the Eagles ranking #7 in yards allowed and Chicago ranked No.11 in yards allowed. With that said, I'm expecting a slower game than many might anticipate especially in the 2nd half. This week I wont be surprised if Philly goes into cruise control, takes a big league than milks it slowly for a grinding victory. It must be noted that NFL favs of -13 or more have stayed UNDER the total 9 straight times with a total of 48 or less points . The Bears are 0-12 UNDER L/12 as a TD-plus road dog when they are off a loss and facing a team that had more regular season wins the previous season with the combined average score clicking at 36.2 ppg. PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 UNDER L/13 in home games vs. poor passing teams averaging 175 or less passing yards/game in the second half of the season with t a combined average of 31.4 ppg scored. NFL team against the total like Philadelphia - after beating the spread by more than 14 points in two consecutive games, in November games are 35-11 under L/25 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection | |||||||
11-25-17 | Flames v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
Calgary enters this game on tired legs and will not have the energy to run and gun, and instead I expect a game played by them in transition. After allowing 1 goal in back to back games, the Flames lost a 6-4 battle last time out, and will now also be out to pay more attention to their defense. Meanwhile, the Avalanche have played their best defensive hockey at home this season, allowing just 2.4 gpg, and pitched a shut out last time as hosts, and defense I'm betting will be their key priority tonight . With that said, I'm recommending we take an under stance here. CALGARY is 15-4 UNDER L/19 in road games when playing against a team with a winning record in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average o f 4.5 gpg going on the scoreboard. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (CALGARY) - extremely tired team - playing their 3rd road game in 4 days, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season in the first half of the season are 24-4 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 86% conversion rate. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-25-17 | Pelicans v. Warriors UNDER 229.5 | 95-110 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
The Golden State Warriors and the Pelicans will be playing their second game in two nights. Each is coming off a win on Friday and both will be on tired legs, and not ready or capable to run and gun. These teams did partake in a 128-120 slugfest in their first meeting this season, at New Orleans that Golden State won, but this time around , I expect a more conservative approach from the Pelicans. It must be noted that new Orleans has held their last two opponents to 91 points or less. On the flipside I'm betting Golden State underrated D , ranked 9th in the league in efficiency to stand tall and to slow down Pelicans stars Cousins and Davis . With the above scenarios playing out, I expect a score that does not eclipse the total. NEW ORLEANS is 33-19 UNDER L/51 in road games revenging a loss vs opponent with a combined average of 207.1 ppg going on the board. GOLDEN STATE is 20-7 UNDER L/27 after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread with a combined average of 213.1 ppg going on the board. NBA team (GOLDEN STATE) - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 47-12 L/20 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for totals bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (GOLDEN STATE) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more are 30-7 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for totals bettors. NBA teams where the total is 220 to 229.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - revenging a home loss vs opponent, off a road win are 34-9 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-25-17 | Northern Kentucky v. Memphis UNDER 145 | 74-76 | Loss | -115 | 2 h 27 m | Show | |
Memphis allowed 62 and 52 points in their L/2 games at home, and it looks very much like playing a strong brand of D along with conservative disciplined hoops will be the name of the game this year for the Tigers. Meanwhile, N.Kentucky has allowed 68 ppg on the season, and also have an aggressive offense. What I'm betting on today is the Tigers knowing the offensive capabilities of N.Kentucky will be primed to play a tough defensive slow down type of basketball, in an effort to keep the visitors from flowing. This in turn , will make for a much lower scoring game than the lines-makers anticipate. MEMPHIS is 8-0 UNDER in home games on Saturday games over the last few seasons with a combined average of 131.4 ppg going on the board. MEMPHIS is 6-0 UNDER L/6 in home games after a game where they failed to cover the spread which happened last time out. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
11-24-17 | Hornets v. Cavs UNDER 220.5 | 99-100 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show | |
The Hornets and the Cavaliers meet again at Friday in Cleveland. both teams are on winning streaks. The last time these two sides played each other 222 combined points went on the board in a 115 -107 Cleveland win. Controlling or at least slowing LeBron James is critical to holding down the explosiveness of the Cavaliers, and the Hornets I'm betting will focus their attention on him, and playing better overall defense on the whole especially here on the road behind the 12th ranked pace in the league .QUOTE: "His big, big nights, which he's had against us, it's going to be the fast-break baskets, the second-chance baskets and the cuts," Clifford said prior to Cleveland's 115-107 win over the Hornets on Nov. 15. "That's how he gets from, he's averaging 28, that's how he's going to get to 38. You know, if you do a good job on those, then you hope he gets 28. You control what you can control but again, the great, great ones, you've got to take those other easy ones away." END QUOTE: With that said, Cleveland has been playing fast and furious of late, but the old guys now will be on tired legs, as they play their 8th game in 13 days, and with Charlotte looking to slow this game down, I'm betting on point production output in this tilt to me more muted than what might expect. CHARLOTTE is 25-11 UNDER L/36 revenging a home loss vs opponent with a combined average of 200 ppg going on the board. NBA team like Charlotte - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against a poor 3PT defense (36.5% or less), dominant rebounding team (+5.5 reb/game or more ) against an average rebounding team (+/-3 reb/game) are 53-24 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 695 conversion rate for totals bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 like Charlotte - after 3 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins are 39-9 UNDER L/5 seasons for 81% conversion rare for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-24-17 | Western Kentucky v. SMU UNDER 137 | 63-61 | Win | 100 | 2 h 41 m | Show | |
BATTLE 4 ATLANTIS - Final Rnd - Imperial Arena at Atlantis Resort - Nassau W KENTUCKY is 21-9 UNDER L/30 in road games in November games. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (W KENTUCKY) - off an upset win as an underdog, marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games are 50-20 UNDER L/70 for a 72% conversion rate. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-23-17 | College of Charleston v. Sam Houston State UNDER 133 | 59-49 | Win | 100 | 4 h 5 m | Show | |
GREAT ALASKA SHOOTOUT - Round 2 - Alaska Airlines Center - Anchorage, AK My College Hoops Totals calculations use a formula I have used for the L/16 years, and take into consideration player and systems ratings, and past trends, and the most recent performance numbers. Neutral court teams against the total (SAM HOUSTON ST) - in a game involving two poor shooting teams (40-42.5%) are 80-40 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-21-17 | Oilers v. Blues UNDER 5.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
The Blues play a defensive minded style of hockey that works best in transition. Consistent goal tending and disciplined hockey, make them very hard to score against , as their 7th ranked GAA would indicate . Meanwhile, the Edmonton Oilers, a side with some big offensive names on their roster, ie (McDavid) are a side that is concentrating on playing much better defense, especially on the road thanks to their overall offense not being as productive as expected , ranking a lowly 29th in the league. The Oilers played a sloppy game last time out, losing 6-3, and their coach Todd McLellan was not happy with their performance. QUOTE: "The goalies have to be better, the defense, the forwards, the coaches have to be better," coach Todd McLellan told the Edmonton Sun. "None of us have lived up to where we need to be and that's why we're where we are in the standings. "I'm not going to single out the goaltender. It's team-wide. END QUOTE: I'm expecting a more disciplined approach from this Oilers group tonight in a game I expect to remain on the low side of the number.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.Under is 20-5-3 in Blues last 28 vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 9-4-2 in Blues last 15 vs. Pacific.Under is 11-4-1 in Oilers last 16 games playing on 2 days rest. Road teams where the total is 5.5 like EDMONTON - revenging a loss vs opponent of 2 goals or more, a struggling team (30% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record in the first half of the season are 24-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection | |||||||
11-20-17 | Jazz v. 76ers UNDER 212 | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show | |
The Sixers are in a down mood and on tired legs after blowing a 24-point lead over the Golden State Warriors with 38 seconds into the second half on Saturday night. The explosive defending NBA champions outscored them 63-21 over the next 17:48 on their way to a 124-116 victory. Now trying to deal with a lack of defensive responsibility and being exhausted and in a emotional letdown state , I expect the 76ers aggressiveness to be muted, which result in a more conservative effort than the linesmakers are expecting. Meanwhile, their opponents the Utah Jazz are playing the finale of a 4 game road trip and will also be on tired legs, and when called upon have been know to play hard core physical D, something I expect from them tonight. Note : The Jazz own the 5th best point allowed D in the league , the 24th ranked offensive rating, and the only 6 teams in the league play at a slower pace then they do. With that said, I'm recommending we take the under path tonight. UTAH is 37-18 UNDER L/54 in road games versus lower tier defensive teams - allowing 106 or more points/game with the combined average score of 200.1 ppg going on the scoreboard.UTAH in their L/10 road games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) have seen a combined average score of 207.2 ppg go on the board. PHILADELPHIA is 16-5 UNDER L/21 against Northwest division opponents with a combined average of 201.1 ppg going on the board. NBA team like UTAH - after a huge blowout win by 30 or more against opponent after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half are 46-12 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
11-20-17 | Creighton v. UCLA UNDER 171 | 100-89 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 13 m | Show | |
CBE HALL OF FAME CLASSIC - Semifinals - Sprint Center - Kansas City, MO Two undefeated, high-scoring offenses square off as Creighton (3-0) faces No. 23 UCLA (3-0) in the first semifinal game of the 2017 CBE Hall of Fame Classic Monday night at Sprint Center in Kansas City, Mo. These are two heavy weights that can put points up on the board in a hurry, but as is usually the case when two big boys go head to head there is a wait see conservative period. With that look for both behemoths to be vigilant and play disciplined defense first basketball which I'm betting translates into a lower scoring game then the lines-makers estimate. It must also be noted that UCLA, owns a whole new starting lineup five from last year. The top four scorers from last season are gone and the Bruins are still short-handed, as three top tier freshmen are suspended indefinitely following their arrest for shoplifting on a recent trip to China. In the Bruins only game vs decent basketball program they took part in a 63-60 physical affair. This one might not end up being played like that one , but I'm betting their won't be as many point going on the board as some might expect. CREIGHTON is 12-3 UNDER L/15 versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 37% or more of their attempts with the combined average score clicking in at 150 ppg. HC Alford of UCLA is 28-10 UNDER in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game with the combined average score of 146.5ppg going on the board. Neutral court teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 like CREIGHTON - after 2 straight games making 50% of their shots or better are 47-17 UNDER the L/21 seasons for a74% conversion rate for bettors.Neutral court teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 like CREIGHTON - after a win by 6 points or less against opponent after scoring 75 points or more 2 straight games are 24-5 UNDER the L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. CBB teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 UCLA - in a tournament game, in a game involving two top-level teams ( 80% or better ) are 45-16 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.CBB Neutral court teams where the total is greater than or equal to 160 UCLA - undefeated on the season, in November games are 36-12 UNDER L/21 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Play UNDER 1 unit reg selection | |||||||
11-19-17 | Redskins v. Saints OVER 51 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 89 h 16 m | Show | |
This game looks very much like it will see a lot of points put on the board this week in the Super Dome. Both teams rank in the top 10 in passing yards, and will be ready to unload in a big way here this week. Dating back to the 2015 season the Skins have gone over in 12 of their L/15 road games. I know the Saints D, is much improved, but over the L/3 seasons Saints home games have seen a combined average 63 ppg go on the board, and no one should be surprised by another huge output here this Sunday. Last week Washington put 30 points on the board against the Vikings 4th ranked D, so based on their prowess packing on the points here will not be as difficult as some might think for the Skins. WASHINGTON is 6-0 OVER L/6 vs. poor kickoff coverage teams, allowing 24 or more yards per return.WASHINGTON is 11-1 OVER L/12 versus good offensive teams - averaging 350 or more yards/game.NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 OVER L/9 in home games vs. mistake free teams - 42 or less penalty yards per game in the second half of the season .WASHINGTON is 9-0 OVER after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game ( All the combined averages of these games went over todays total) The Saints are 20-0 OU L/20 off a game as a favorite when facing a non-divisional opponent that has averaged fewer than 5.2 rushing first downs per game. the last 10 games have all eclipsed the 51 point plateau. NFL team where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 (NEW ORLEANS) - off 1 or more straight overs, an excellent offensive team ( 27 PPG or more ) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG) after 8+ games have seen the OVER convert 24 of the L/29 times dating back 10 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for Totals bettors. Play OVER 1 unit reg selection | |||||||
11-18-17 | Islanders v. Lightning OVER 6 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show | |
This matchup between the visiting NY Islanders and their hosts the TB Lightning features two of the top three scoring teams in the league. TB is averaging 4.00 goals per game and scored five or more goals 9 times this season, including in four of the past five games. Three times the Lightning have smacked down 6 goals , including the last time out in a 6-1 victory against Dallas on Thursday.The Islanders, meanwhile, have scored the third-most goals in the league at 65 and are averaging the second-most goals in the league at 3.61 per game. New York scored five or more goals eight different times in 18 tilts and are coming off a shootout against Carolina in which the Islanders scored six goals. NY ISLANDERS are 6-0 OVER l/6 against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game this season with a combined average of 8.8 gpg going on the score board. NHL team against the total NYI - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games against opponent after successfully covering the spread in 5 or more consecutive games are 52-19 over the L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate of 72% for bettors. Play on the OVER 1 unit reg selection | |||||||
11-18-17 | Fairfield v. Purdue UNDER 154.5 | 64-106 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Purdue is a very strong Big 10 program with a lot of big athletic players in their ,lineup. Despite of having the guns to put down a boatload full of points, the Boilermaker HC Painter prides himself on being able to play shut down defense, and today against Fairfield I'm betting that will be the case. Meanwhile, Fairfield, is an easy team to slow down if you can control their super star Tyler Nelson ( 19.5 ppg last season), something I'm betting the Boliermakers will do. Also on the flipside, Fairfield owned the 2nd best D, in the MAAC last season behind St.Peters and according to my cross reference player personnel rankings will be even better this season. FAIRFIELD is 14-4 UNDER vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or more of their attempts with a combined average of 150.8 ppg going on the board.FAIRFIELD is 6-0 UNDER after a win by 10 points or more with a combined average of 140.3 ppg going on the scoreboard. CBB Home teams against the total like Purdue - after a game - shooting 57% or higher, allowing 43% or lower against opponent after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 37% or less are 54-14 UNDER the L/20 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER 1 unit reg selection |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |