Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
05-15-23 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 9.5 | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
My power rankings suggest the BoSox offense matchup well vs the Mariners starter Kirby. BOSTON is 9-1 OVER vs. a starting pitcher like Kirby with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) this season with a combined 12.3 rpg scored. BOSTON is 18-6 OVER against right-handed starters this season with a combined 11.6 rpg scored. Kirby is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in two career starts against the Red Sox, allowing 10 runs (eight earned) in 10 innings. He has also surrendered four home runs.BOSTON is 26-13 OVER in all games this season with a combined average of 10.8 rpg scored.Meanwhile, the Mariners offense should also roll today vs a tired pitching staff and bullpen that just allowed 21 runs in a 3 game set to the Cardinals in which they were swept. Red Sox starter Houck has also looked less than stellar of late, garnering a 6.48 ERA in his L/3 starts. Over is 3-0-1 in Red Sox last 4 during game 1 of a series.Over is 8-0 in Red Sox last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning record. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (SEATTLE) - with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts, ice cold hitting team - batting .230 or worse over their last 20 games are 65-30 OVER L/26 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 20-8-1 in the last 29 meetings in Boston.Over is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings. Play over | |||||||
05-15-23 | Mets v. Nationals UNDER 9.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 59 m | Show | |
NYM starter Peterson has not looked great so far this season, but has a good hsitroy against the Dbacks, as is evident by a 2-0 record along with a 2.93 ERA in six career outings (five starts) against Washington. With the Nats only averaging 2.9 rpg this season at home Peterson and his bullpen should do fine from a defensive perspective in this tilt. Meanwhile the Nationals starter Corbin has also under performed but is trending upwards as he has worked at least into the sixth inning in his last five starts. With the Mets only averaging 2.7 rpg vs lefties this season, Corbin should have a decent outing. NY METS are 12-4 UNDER against left-handed starters this season like Crobin with a combined average of 6.7 rpg going on the board. NY METS are 9-1 UNDER when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season with a combined average of 6.9 rpg scored. WASHINGTON is 14-5 UNDER vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better this season with a combined average of 7.7 rpg scored. WASHINGTON is 18-7 UNDER in home games with a team slugging percentage .390 or worse on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.6 rpg scored. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (NY METS) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or better errors/game on the season are 39-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 7.8 rpg scored. MLB team (WASHINGTON) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 6.70 or worse on the season (NL). are 52-18 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play under | |||||||
05-14-23 | Cubs v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | 3-16 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Minnesota's Louie Varland (0-0, 4.32 ERA) will make his ninth career start and first against the Cubs, while Chicago will respond with right-hander Marcus Stroman (2-3, 2.28). Varland has pitched his best at home this season where has garnered a 1.50 ERA in 6 innings of work. It must also be noted that Stroman has gone at least six innings while allowing two or fewer runs in seven of his eight starts this season and Im betting nothing changes today in what Im projecting will be a lower scoring affair. (Also expecting immediate offensive regression from the Twins after yesterdays 11 run output) Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.Under is 20-7-1 in Cubs last 28 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.CHICAGO CUBS are 10-2 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored. Under is 5-1 in Twins last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 7-3-1 in Twins last 11 during game 3 of a series.Under is 9-4-1 in Twins last 14 interleague home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 15-7-2 in Twins last 24 home games vs. a right-handed starter. Play under | |||||||
05-13-23 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | 2-4 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
The pitching matchup of righty Musgrove going against Urials the lefty gives the offenses and advantage as the Dodgers rank third against righties (119 wRC+), while the Padres rank eighth against southpaws with a 115 wRC+ so far this season. Dodger stadium will see temps in the high 70s, with light winds blowing out to center. LA DODGERS are 13-4 OVER in home games in May games over the last 2 seasons with 11.7 rpg scored. Over is 9-3 in Dodgers last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 10-3 in Dodgers last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings in Los Angeles. Play over | |||||||
05-13-23 | Pirates v. Orioles UNDER 8.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 36 m | Show | |
Baltimores starter Wells, , has not lost since April 9. In five starts since then, he is 2-0 with a 3.10 ERA, 23 strikeouts and seven walks and is not an easy guy to face for a Pirates side that has not scored more than 3 runs in 11 straight games. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Roansy Contreras (3-3, 4.74 ERA) will go against a Baltimore team that hits southpaws better than righties ranking 15th . My projections based on the pitching matchup , and projected offensive outputs suggests a line closer 7.5 thus giving us value on this offering. Under is 4-0-1 in Pirates last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 overall.BALTIMORE is 15-4 UNDER vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.7 rog scored. Play under | |||||||
05-13-23 | Cardinals v. Red Sox OVER 10 | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
These teams took part in a high scoring game yesterday, and the environment is right for another fairly high scoring affair that eclipses this total according to my projections. With temps in the low 18s and NW winds at around 13 mph Im expected plenty runs. BOSTON is 18-9 OVER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better this season with a combined average of 10.5 rpg scored.BOSTON is 15-6 OVER in home games this season with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored. Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.Over is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 interleague games.Over is 8-1 in Cardinals last 9 overall. Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in Boston.Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. Play over | |||||||
05-13-23 | Reds v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
Marlins stater ALCANTARA is 10-2 UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.9 rpg scored.ALCANTARA is 8-0 UNDER (+8.0 Units) in home games when working on 5 or 6 days rest over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 4.6 rpg scored. MIAMI is 14-4 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons like the Reds Lodolo. with a combined average of 5.9 rpg scored. CINCINNATI is 11-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 4 runs or less 3 straight games over the last 2 seasons of 4.5 rpg scored. both theses offenses have been very inconsistent this season, while their pitching has been viable. My projections estimate a low scoring affair that fails to eclipse this number. MLB Road teams (CINCINNATI) - after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 33-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors. Play under | |||||||
05-12-23 | Cubs v. Twins UNDER 8 | 6-2 | Push | 0 | 10 h 15 m | Show | |
Cubs send right-hander Sonny Gray (4-0, 1.35 ERA) to the hill to face the Cubs.Gray currently owns the best ERA in the American League and has allowed more than one run in only one of his seven trips to the hill this season. Meanwhile,Left-hander Drew Smyly (3-1, 3.05) will takes to the mound for the Cubs. In 16 career appearances (six starts) against the Twins, Smyly is 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA. My projections estimate, a pitchers duel here and when need be for the bullpens to finish the job. SMYLY is 19-8 UNDER in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 road games.Under is 6-0 in Cubs last 6 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 40-18-6 in Cubs last 64 during game 1 of a series. MINNESOTA is 11-2 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 this season with a combined average of 6 rpg scored. Under is 6-0 in Twins last 6 overall. CHICAGO CUBS are 24-12 UNDER after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.9 rpg scored. Under is 40-18-6 in Cubs last 64 during game 1 of a series. Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Minnesota. Play under | |||||||
05-12-23 | Angels v. Guardians UNDER 8.5 | 5-4 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 53 m | Show | |
Clevelands lack of offense and top tier pitching have produced consistent unders of late. The Guardians have gone under in 9 of thier L/10 games with no tilt over that span seeing more than 8 combined runs scored. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation here again tonight vs the visiting Angels. Under is 6-1 in Angels last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter like the Guardians starter Allen. Under is 7-2-1 in Angels last 10 during game 1 of a series.Under is 20-7 in Angels last 27 games following an off day. CLEVELAND is 10-1 UNDER in home games when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.1 rpg scored. CLEVELAND is 21-7 UNDER vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game this season with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored. MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (CLEVELAND) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a very good bullpen (ERA 3.33 or better ), with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season are 31-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play under | |||||||
05-11-23 | Mets v. Reds OVER 10 | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 25 m | Show | |
Reds will send right-handed reliever Derek Law (2-4, 3.00)to the hill in his fifth career start as an opener among his 210 major league appearances. Right-hander Ben Lively is will make his first big-league appearance since 2019 with Kansas City. This will be a nice weather afternoon tilt with temps in the high 70s and light wind blowing out to center. With two average major league baseball starters on the hill Im betting on a boatload of runs going on the board this afternoon. Over is 4-1 in Mets last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-1-1 in Mets last 6 road games. Over is 8-2 in Reds last 10 vs. National League East.Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Over is 6-2 in Reds last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.Over is 9-3 in Reds last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 8-3 in Reds last 11 vs. a team with a losing record. Play over | |||||||
05-10-23 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 8.5 | 4-10 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 23 m | Show | |
Its going to be a fairly cool night in Chicago with temps near 60 and the wind blowing in from Center/right field, and Im betting on a lower scoring game that benefits the pitchers and not the hitters. It must also be noted the Cubs have seen more than 8 runs combined scored in just one of their L/8 games and only twice in their L/13 trips to the diamonds. Play under | |||||||
05-10-23 | Mets v. Reds OVER 9 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 51 m | Show | |
Mets bullpen is tired and Im betting on some late runs here today after the starters leave this tilt. Over is 4-0 in Mets last 4 vs. National League Central.Over is 3-0-1 in Mets last 4 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 vs. National League East.Over is 6-1 in Reds last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 8-2 in Reds last 10 vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 4-1 in Reds last 5 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. NY METS are 24-6 OVER after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.4 rpg scored. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (NY METS) - cold hitting team - batting .240 or worse over their last 10 games, with a tired bullpen - after 3 straight games throwing 4+ innings are 124-61 OVER L/26 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Play over | |||||||
05-10-23 | Astros v. Angels OVER 9 | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
This afternoon game is a pivotal division matchup and both sides will primed to compete, on a sunny afternoon in southern California , with near perfect weather and the wind blowing out to left center field. Both teams have alot of offensive talent, and despite of two decent pitchers on the mound, the environment favors a run fest.Over is 5-2 in Astros last 7 vs. American League West. Over is 5-2 in Angels last 7 vs. American League West.Over is 5-2 in Angels last 7 home games.Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings. Play over | |||||||
05-10-23 | Blue Jays v. Phillies UNDER 8.5 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show | |
Kevin Gausman (2-3, 3.86 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Blue Jays on Wednesday. My power rankings suggest he matches up well vs this explosive Phillies offense and when and if he does falter his bullpen should supply enough backing to keep the home side from an exaggerated output. Jays starter GAUSMAN is 34-16 UNDER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. Meanwhile, Philadelphia will hand the ball to Zack Wheeler (3-2, 4.26 ERA) on Wednesday. My own notes on Wheeler suggests upward momentum, and better pitch command which will hold the mighty Jays at bay. Under is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter. TORONTO is 13-4 UNDER vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game this season. Under is 6-2 in Blue Jays last 8 during game 2 of a series.Under is 6-2-1 in Blue Jays last 9 vs. a team with a losing record. Play under | |||||||
05-09-23 | Nationals v. Giants OVER 8 | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 19 m | Show | |
My projections make this total closer to a 9. With the wind blowing out tp center Field at 13 miles an hour, I wont be surprised with an above average over the fence action tonight. Over is 5-2 in Nationals last 7 vs. National League West.Washingtons starter CORBIN is 35-18 OVER in road games when playing against a team with a losing record in his career (Team's Record) with a combined average of 10.3 rpg scored. SAN FRANCISCO is 26-12 OVER as a favorite of -200 or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 9.4 rpg scored. Play over | |||||||
05-09-23 | Mets v. Reds OVER 9.5 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
The Mets will send right-hander Max Scherzer (2-2, 5.56 ERA). The veteran right hander looked tired at the end of last season, and just has not looked like the pitcher he was earlier in his career.Scherzer was bashed for six earned runs on eight hits over just 3 1/3 innings against Detroit last time out, and once again is being over rated. Meanwhile,In his last start, May 1 in San Diego, Weaver the Reds starter was charged with four runs on nine hits over 4 1/3 innings in an 8-3 loss to the Padres and looks like cannon fodder. Weaver has been cranked for 14 runs on 21 hits in just 16 innings of lackluster work . Im betting both pitcher give up enough runs for this tilt to be eclipsed early. Over is 8-3-2 in Mets last 13 road games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 6-1 in Mets last 7 vs. National League Central. NY METS are 23-6 OVER after a 2 game span where the bullpen threw 9 total innings or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 10.3 ppg scored. Over is 4-0 in Reds last 4 during game 1 of a series.Over is 7-1 in Reds last 8 vs. National League East. MLB Home teams (CINCINNATI) - averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game on the season, after a game they hit 4 or more home runs are 37-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. Play over | |||||||
05-09-23 | Blue Jays v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show | |
Phillies stater NOLA is 24-9 OVER in home games vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average 9.9 rpg scored.NOLA is 18-6 OVER when the total is 8.5 to 10 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) with combined average of 11.4 rpg going on the board.Over is 6-0 in Blue Jays last 6 games vs. a right-handed starter. Meanwhile, Alek Manoah (1-2, 4.71 ERA) is scheduled to start for the Blue Jays.In Manoah's last start against the Boston Red Sox, he gave up eight hits and five runs, two earned, in five innings.He has not looked as impressive as he did last season and according to my power rankings does not matchup well here vs a sometimes explosive Phillies batting order. Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Philadelphia.Over is 5-2-1 in Phillies last 8 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Fast furious runs expected here . Play on the over | |||||||
05-07-23 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 8 | 5-2 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 17 m | Show | |
Staring ptichers: Urias the Dodgers starter a hurler who contended for Cy Young ward last season and is not performing very well at the moment, as he has garnered a 6.75 ERA in his L/3 starts and a 7.20 ERA on road starts this season. Meanwhile, Padres starter Musgrove has allowed 10 earned runs in just a little over 8 innings of work this season, and once again looks like cannon fodder. The Dodgers have clobbered right-handed pitching averaging 6.1 rpg in production while the Fathers have been consistent against left-handed pitching averaging 4.2 rpg. Both defenses have been average this season and the bullpens inconsistent which has me leaning on this game going over the offered total. Padres starter MUSGROVE is 36-18 OVER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game in his career (Team's Record) with the average rpg clicking in at 11.1 .MUSGROVE is 26-12 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 9.9 rpg scored. MUSGROVE is 12-3 OVER (+8.9 Units) at home when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 8.8 rpg scored. Over is 9-4 in Padres last 13 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game. Over is 6-1 in Dodgers last 7 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Over is 8-2 in Dodgers last 10 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Over is 7-2 in Dodgers last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. LA DODGERS are 11-1 OVER after 2 or more consecutive road games this season with a combined average of 11.9 rpg scored. Play over | |||||||
05-06-23 | Warriors v. Lakers OVER 227.5 | 97-127 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
My projections estimate that Golden State will allow 115+ points here tonight. GOLDEN STATE is 25-6 OVER when they allow 115 to 120 points in a game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 232.6 ppg. Meanwhile, the LA LAKERS are 13-4 OVER when they score 115 to 120 points in a game this season with a combined average of 237 ppg going on the board. Advantage over. Over is 5-1 in Warriors last 6 games following a straight up win.Over is 38-15 in Warriors last 53 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 37-17-2 in Warriors last 56 road games. GOLDEN STATE is 8-1 OVER in road games after a blowout win by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 241 ppg scored..GOLDEN STATE is 14-3 OVER )on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 240.2 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 17-3 OVER when the total is 220 to 229.5 this season. Ham is 41-26 OVER sub par defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more as the coach of LA LAKERS with a combined average of 236.5 ppg scored. Over is 11-2 in Lakers last 13 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings. Play over | |||||||
05-06-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | 5-1 | Loss | -135 | 23 h 8 m | Show | |
Vegas has scored 4 goals or more in 5 straight games, while Edmonton has scored 4 goals or more in 5 of their L/6 . My projections estimate 7 plus combined goals will be scored in this matchup tonight with each teams scoring 3+ goals.
EDMONTON is 6-0 OVER off a road loss against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined 7.7 gpg scored.EDMONTON is 11-2 OVER revenging a loss vs opponent as a road favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.5 ggp scored.EDMONTON is 6-0 OVER in road games after 3 straight games where both teams scored 3 goals or more this season with a combined average of 9 gpg scored. EDMONTON is 8-1 OVER (when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 7.9 gpg scored. The L/5 meetings in this series have eclipsed this Totals offering. Play over | |||||||
05-06-23 | Twins v. Guardians UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show | |
Minnesota's starter Gray has not allowed more than one run in any of his starts this season and has garnered 41 strikeouts in 31 innings of top tier pitching .Meanwhile, the Guardians Allen has made two starts during this campaign, and looked good both times . The southpaw has not allowed more than three runs and struck out 16 batters in 11 innings of quality work. I expect both starters to long and strong and for both od these decent bullpens to hold the proverbial fort. Note:The Twins pen ranks 13th while garnering a 3.73 ERA, while the Guardians rank eighth in MLB with a 3.35 ERA. Im betting on the pitching staffs having the upper hand on the offenses today. CLEVELAND is 7-0 UNDER vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game this season with a combined average of 4.6 rpg scored.Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 home games. Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 21-6 in Guardians last 27 home games vs. a team with a winning recor Under is 8-2-1 in Twins last 11 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 3-1-2 in Twins last 6 road games vs. a left-handed starter. MINNESOTA is 37-11 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored. Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Cleveland. Play on the under | |||||||
05-06-23 | Tigers v. Cardinals OVER 9 | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Detroits starter Turnbull has been battered this season as he returns from Tommy John surgery. The righty hurler has garnered a bloated 6.83 ERA . Meanwhile, veteran righty Wainwright makes his season debut for the struggling Cards . his velocity was off late last season, and he is throwing alot of soft stuff, curveballs in particular, that a decent hitting and up-trending Tigers offense Im betting can tee off on. Note: St.Louis has allowed 33 runs in thier L/5 games and with Wainwright on the hill more runs should be on the agenda. As far as the Cards offense goes, they should get a boost facing a pitcher that is in fade material mode at this time. DETROIT is 7-0 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record this season with a combined average of 11.6 rpg scored . Advantage to the over | |||||||
05-04-23 | Mariners v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
George Kirby, 2-2, 2.93 ERA, will get the start for the Mariners. The Athletics will counter with Drew Rucinski, 0-1, 4.76 ERA. Seattle’s pitching staff has been consistent, as is evident by giving up an average 4.14 runs per game. Opposition batting orders have garnered a lowly .230 batting average against the Mariners, which ranks seventh in the league. Their 3.52 ERA is also seventh, as is their 1.21 WHIP are also ranked 7th. Meanwhile, I know the As pitching is one of the most inconsistent in all of MLB , but this matchup and pitcher vs batting order projections looks favorable for them when it comes to limiting the Mariners offensive production with D. Rucinski on the hill . (Yes Hill has not impressed of late but does matchup well here according to my pitcher vs batting order power rankings. Under is 4-1 in Mariners last 5 road games.Under is 7-3 in Mariners last 10 during game 3 of a series. Under is 9-4 in Athletics last 13 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 5-2 in Athletics last 7 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Seattles starter Kirby.OAKLAND is 17-6 UNDER after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base over the last 2 seasons MLB Road teams (SEATTLE) - after 3 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs against opponent after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs are 32-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for. a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Play under | |||||||
05-04-23 | Brewers v. Rockies UNDER 12 | 6-9 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 46 m | Show | |
Colorados starter Seabold (0-0, 5.27 ERA) will match up against Brewers lefty Wade Miley (3-1, 1.86). My projections estimate that Seahold matches up well vs a 4.4 rpg on a .240 BA. Meanwhile, Miley also matches up well here vs a Colorado side averaging 3.9 rpg. I know Coors Filed is a proverbial launching pad, but this series has been fairly low scoring so far and nothing will change today according to my projections. Under is 12-3-1 in Brewers last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like Seabold.Under is 3-1-1 in Brewers last 5 road games with the total set at 11.0 or higher. MLB Road teams where the total is 11 or higher (MILWAUKEE) - with a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 37-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for. a 82 % conversion rate for bettors. Play under | |||||||
05-03-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show | |
All 4 games between these teams this season eclipsed this Totals offering from the books, and Im betting nothing changes tonight. Edmonton usually plays a one way style of offensive hockey behind an explosive lineup and the Vegas Knights will have to reciprocate with some offensive fireworks of their own or proverbially be blown off the ice. EDMONTON is 5-0 OVER in road games after 3 straight games where both teams scored 3 goals or more this season with a combined average of 8.8 gpg scored.EDMONTON is 20-9 OVER ( against poor defensive teams - 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or better pp in the 2nd half of the year this season with a combined average of 7.6 gpg scored.EDMONTON is 23-10 OVER against explosive offensive teams - scoring 3+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 7.6 gpg scored. My projections estimate both teams will score 3 goals plus each.EDMONTON is 40-0 OVER when both teams score 3 or more goals this season with a combined average of 7.7 gpg scored.VEGAS is 26-0 OVER when both teams score 3 or more goals this season with a combined average of 8.1 gpg scored. Play on the OVER | |||||||
05-03-23 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -112 | 3 h 8 m | Show | |
Torontos starter MANOAH is 10-1 UNDER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 54% to 62%) over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)MANOAH is 15-4 UNDER in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)Manoah has been outstanding in six career starts against the Red Sox, going 4-0 with a 1.46 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 37 innings and Im betting another top notch effort tonight. Meanwhile,Nick Pivetta (1-2, 5.11 ERA) goers to the hill for Boston . The right-hander has pitched at least five innings and recorded at least five strikeouts in four of his first five starts and is edging into top form. Note: Under is 9-2-1 in Blue Jays last 12 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 8-3-2 in Blue Jays last 13 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Play under | |||||||
05-03-23 | Reds v. Padres UNDER 9 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show | |
Reds starter Cessa may not inspire bettors when looking at an under bet but it must be noted that SAN DIEGO is 9-1 UNDER vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.90 or worse over the last 2 seasons like the Reds expected starter Cessa. On the flips side , Lugo who makes his 15th career appearance (second start) against the Reds owns a a 1.04 ERA, a 1.154 WHIP and a .234 opponents' batting average vs Cinncy. He has pitched well this season, and deserves respect in his ability to limit the inconsistent Red offense here today and help us get paid via an under wager. Under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 during game 3 of a series.Under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 vs. National League Central. Under is 5-1 in Reds last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 7-3 in Reds last 10 vs. a team with a winning recordS. MLB Road teams where the total is 9 to 9.5 (CINCINNATI) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season are 39-9 UNDER L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play under | |||||||
05-02-23 | Phillies v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | 1-13 | Loss | -119 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
Philadelphia will send left-hander Matt Strahm (2-2, 2.31 ERA) to the mound.The Dodgers will counter with lefty Julio Urias (3-3, 4.41 ERA), who won the National League ERA title last season with a 2.16 mark. Urias, who is 3-1 with a 3.42 ERA lifetime against the Phillies in six appearances (four starts) is capable of holding the Phillies bats down. Also according to my pitcher vs power rankings numbers matches up well here. Factoring in the bull pens as well has me projecting a totals line closer to 7 which gives us a full run of value to the under. Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter. Dodgers starter URIAS is 19-8 UNDER vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 4-1 in Dodgers last 5 home games. PHILADELPHIA is 28-13 UNDER after a game where the bullpen was hit hard for 4 or more earned runs over the last 3 seasons. Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning record. MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (LA DODGERS) - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 1.50 the last 5 games against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games are 40-11 L/5 seasons for a 79% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (PHILADELPHIA) - with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.50 the last 15 games against opponent with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 2.00 the last 5 games are 50-24 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
05-02-23 | Twins v. White Sox OVER 8.5 | 2-3 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Minnesotas starter RYAN is 10-1 OVER in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 11 rpg scored. CHI WHITE SOX are 18-4 OVER in home games vs. a starting pitcher like Ryan whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 13.3 rpg scored. Over is 9-2-1 in White Sox last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Ryan.Meanwhile, White Sox Tuesday starter Michael Kopech owns a (0-3, 7.01 ERA) and a bloated 9.31 ERA at home. My pitcher vs batting order power ranking suggest the Twins matchup well against him and should do some early damage. which will help us eclipse this total. Over is 11-3-1 in White Sox last 15 home games.Over is 19-6-3 in White Sox last 28 home games vs. a team with a winning record.BALDELLI is 27-11 OVER in road games in May games as the manager of MINNESOTA with a combined average of 10.3 rpg scored.MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - bad offensive team (4.2 or less runs/game) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or less) (AL), after scoring 10 runs or more are 39-11 OVER L/26 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors with the average combined score clicking in at 10.1 rpg. MLB Home teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 (CHI WHITE SOX) - with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.50 or worse on the season, after 2 straight games where their bullpen blew a save are 62-27 OVER L/26 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 9.9 rpg going on the scoreboard. Over is 10-4-2 in the last 16 meetings in Chicago. Play over | |||||||
05-01-23 | Cubs v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
Chicago left-hander Drew Smyly (2-1, 3.21 ERA) opposes left-hander MacKenzie Gore (3-1, 3.00) in the series opener. Smyly is 2-0 with a 1.54 ERA over his past four starts. CHICAGO CUBS are 14-4 UNDER in road games vs. an NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better over the last 2 seasons like Gore. Everything points to this being a pitchers duel. SMYLY is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6 rpg scored. SMYLY is 12-2 UNDER (+10.1 Units) vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.2 rpg scored. Under is 5-0 in Cubs last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 5-1 in Cubs last 6 overall.Under is 37-18-6 in Cubs last 61 during game 1 of a series. Under is 13-3-3 in Nationals last 19 during game 1 of a seriesUnder is 7-3 in Nationals last 10 overall.Under is 7-3 in Nationals last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Play on the under | |||||||
04-30-23 | Pirates v. Nationals UNDER 8 | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh put 16 runs on the board yesterday while allowing 1 run in a win vs the Nationals . Im expecting immediate regression offensively here today for the Pirates which will help us a cash a under ticket. Under is 10-3-1 in Pirates last 14 during game 3 of a series. PITTSBURGH is 22-11 UNDER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored.
WASHINGTON is 42-26 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons with the average combined score clicking in at 7.9 rpg. Under is 11-5-1 in Nationals last 17 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 11-5-1 in Nationals last 17 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Oviiedo. Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Washington. Play under | |||||||
04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks OVER 207.5 | 108-101 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show | |
This matchup according to my projections estimate a combined score that eclipses this totals offering and should be closer to 211. Thanks to the Knicks top tier defensive play against another defensive minded team the Cleveland Cavs in their last series this total is now a little tainted in my opinion and offers value for over bettors even if key offensive cog- Randle misses this game for the Knicks.
NEW YORK is 17-7 OVER as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season with a combined average of 238.3 ppg scored. MIAMI is 10-2 OVER in April games this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after allowing 100 points or less 3 straight games are 26-4 OVER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. with a combined average of 215.6 ppg scored. Play on the over | |||||||
04-29-23 | Phillies v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show | |
Right-hander Cristian Javier (2-0, 3.21) has the starting assignment for the Astros on Saturday and according to my projections has a high percentage chance of having a quality start. Meanwhile, Right-hander Zack Wheeler (2-1, 4.73 ERA) is the scheduled starter for the Phillies which I also project to have a quality start. Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 5-2 in Phillies last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 53-26-6 in Phillies last 85 vs. American League West. Under is 4-1 in Astros last 5 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.Under is 6-2-1 in Astros last 9 vs. National League East. THOMSON is 22-9 UNDER in road games vs. a team with a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better as the manager of PHILADELPHIA with s combined average of 6.3 rpg scored.THOMSON is 26-9 UNDER after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better as the manager of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 6.3 rpg scored. Under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings. Play under | |||||||
04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 235 | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show | |
We are getting into clutch time in this series, and Im now betting we begin to see a more physical type of basketball that leans on the conservative side. My own projections make this game closer to a 231 which gives us almost two full possessions value on this line offering from the books to the under. Under is 20-8-1 in Kings last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 9-4-1 in Warriors last 14 home games.SACRAMENTO is 14-4 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combine average of 230.5 ppg scored.SACRAMENTO is 13-4 UNDER in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season with a combined average of 227.9 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 10-2 UNDER in home games versus very good shooting teams - making 48% or more of their shots this season with a combined average of 225.7 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 22-9 UNDER in home games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game with a combined average of 223.9 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - terrible defensive team - allowing 118+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 115 points or more 2 straight games are 41-19 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (GOLDEN STATE) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 71-28 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play under | |||||||
04-27-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 | 4-2 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
These two teams have gone over in their L/4 meetings and Im betting nothing changes in this tilt. The Lightning’s 4.00 home goals per game lead the NHL during the regular season and Im betting we see them let it all hang out here in Toronto tonight with their season on the line. The Leafs Im betting will be forced into reciprocating with some run and gun action themselves which will lead to a combined score that eclipses this total. TAMPA BAY is 25-9 OVER against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the 2nd half of the year this season with a combined average of 7.2 gpg scored. TAMPA BAY is 8-2 OVER in April games this season with a combined average of 7.9 gpg scored. Over is 7-0 in Lightning last 7 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 5-0 in Lightning last 5 road games. TORONTO is 33-18 OVER against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game in the 2nd half of the year over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.9 gpg scored. TORONTO is 9-2 OVER in the first round of the playoffs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.5 gpg scored. Over is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings. Road teams against the total (TAMPA BAY) - off 3 consecutive losses against division rivals against opponent off a close win by 1 goal over a division rival are 29-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors. Play Over | |||||||
04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219.5 | 128-126 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
I know these sides have eclipsed the total in 7 straight meetings and there are a ton of over trends. However, Im betting that the Heat will be in bubble mode tonight and will be conservative in transition knowing that the Bucks will come at them with everything they have. That in itself bodes well for a score that does not eclipse this total. The Heat are 2nd in ppg allowed and 29th in pace in the league and 30th in ppg production and we will see why these stats had been established this season, MIAMI is 14-6 UNDER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 this season with a combined average 212.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is 210 to 219.5 (MIAMI/MILWAUKEE ) - in the first round of the playoffs, in the 5th game of a playoff series are 30-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 88% conversion rate for bettors with the average score of those 34 tilts clicking in at 202.4 ppg. Play under | |||||||
04-26-23 | Padres v. Cubs UNDER 8 | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
Cubs starter Smyly (2-1, 3.13 ERA) took a perfect game into the eighth inning Friday against the Los Angeles Dodgers and now Im betting with upward momentum on his side and continues his top tier work.He is 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA in four games (two starts) vs. San Diego. Padres hace average 2.8 rpg scored. SMYLY is 10-2 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.1 rpg scored. Scheduled San Diego starter Michael Wacha (2-1, 7.08 ERA) has struggled in his last two tilts but is a viable hurler who Im betting matches up well here vs the Cubs batting order in windy Wrigley. MLB Road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (SAN DIEGO) - with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse on the season-NL, excellent fielding team - averaging 0.5 or less errors/game on the season are 65-26 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate. Play on the under | |||||||
04-26-23 | White Sox v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 0-8 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 38 m | Show | |
Chicago will start right-hander Michael Kopech (0-2, 6.97). In three career appearances (one start) against Toronto, Kopech is 0-1 with a 20.77 ERA. The Blue Jays answer back with Left-hander Yusei Kikuchi (3-0, 3.80 ERA) who will start for Toronto on Wednesday. He is 1-1 with a 6.92 ERA in three career starts against the White Sox. Im betting on the explosive Blue Jays bats to be the major catalysts behind a combined score that eclipses this total. Over is 9-3-1 in White Sox last 13 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings. Play on the over | |||||||
04-25-23 | Astros v. Rays UNDER 8 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 42 m | Show | |
Two viable starting hurlers go to the hill today in this matchup between the Astros and their hosts the Rays. In the Astros' 8-1 victory on Wednesday, Garcia threw seven shutout innings and allowed just two hits. He struck out nine and walked one over a season-high 92 pitches and he enters this tilt with momentum. Meanwhile, Drew Rasmussen (3-1, 2.01) in his three victories has held the opposition scoreless -- six innings against the Washington Nationals, seven against the Oakland A's and five his last time outing in Cincinnati against the Reds this past Wednesday.Rasmussen holds a 2-1 record with a 3.00 ERA in three lifetime starts versus the Astros.My projections estimate both starting throwers will long and strong today and help keep this tilt on the low side of the totals offering. HOUSTON is 44-24 UNDER vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. HOUSTON is 44-21 UNDER when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. Under is 20-7-3 in Astros last 30 vs. American League East.Under is 18-6-4 in Astros last 28 on astroturf. TAMPA BAY is 34-20 UNDER vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.8 rpg scored. Under is 6-2-1 in Rays last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. MLB teams where the total is 8 to 8.5 (TAMPA BAY) - good hitting team (AVG .285 or better ) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 4.20 or worse) -AL, starting a pitcher who did not walk a hitter last outing are 30-5 L/26 seasons for a 86% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 28-9-3 in the last 40 meetings in Tampa Bay. Play under | |||||||
04-24-23 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning OVER 6.5 | 5-4 | Win | 101 | 10 h 4 m | Show | |
The last two periods of game 3 of this series that saw tighter defensive hockey played may have some leaning on what could now be a more defensive type of series going forward. However, the truth is both these offenses are explosive and had plenty of chances to score, even though the game was alot tighter after the 4 goal combined outburst in the first period. Im betting on more high flying entertaining hockey here tonight, and for the Bolts to be more aggressive as they seemed to try to go into a defense bubble late against a lethal offense with dire consequences as they lost 4-3 in OT. I cant see that happening again. Advantage over. TORONTO is 31-19 OVER against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.7 gpg scored. TORONTO is 25-11 OVER against good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.1 gpg scored. TAMPA BAY is 11-4 OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) this season with a combined average of 7 gpg scored. TAMPA BAY is 24-9 OVER s) against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the 2nd half of the year this season with a combined average of 7.1 gpg scored. TAMPA BAY is 7-1 OVER in home games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game this season with a combined average of 7.3 gpg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (TORONTO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season, after scoring 3 goals or more in 5 straight games are The last 8 games played on TB between these sides have gone over the set total. Play over | |||||||
04-24-23 | Astros v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 3-8 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 38 m | Show | |
In Monday's series opener, Tampa Bay starts rookie right-hander Taj Bradley (2-0, 2.61 ERA), who will be making his third big league start. My early season pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggests he matches up well here vs the Astros. Meanwhile, the Astros are going with right-hander Jose Urquidy (1-1, 3.66), who will be making his fifth start this season. Urquidy has faced the Rays twice in his career, both starts, and he is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA with 11 strikeouts in 12 innings against them.Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation tonight. With two solid bullpens behind each starter a lower scoring tilt is my projection. HOUSTON is 26-14 UNDER vs. AL teams allowing 3.9 or less runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.4 rpg scored.HOUSTON is 28-14 UNDER (+12.8 Units) after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored.HOUSTON is 25-10 UNDER against AL East opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. Under is 18-5-4 in Astros last 27 on astroturf. Under is 6-1-1 in Rays last 8 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 28-8-3 in the last 39 meetings in Tampa Bay. Under is 5-2-2 in Rays last 9 during game 1 of a series. Play under | |||||||
04-23-23 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 206.5 | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 15 m | Show | |
Eastern Conference - First Round - Best Of 7 - Game 4 Afternoon pro basketball can sometimes be a little bit slower and low scoring as it takes time for bodies that are used to playing most of their games in the evening to get acclimated to early starts . However, this total is just a little bit over done to the low side according to my estimates even though these two sides have taken part in 3 lower scoring affairs . ( My totals projection took into consideration that NEW YORK is 20-10 OVER as a home favorite this season with a combined average of 232.3 ppg scored and that in Cleveland last 14 games as a road underdog of 6 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 216.7 ppg scored. Also Bickerstaff in 8 road games after a combined score of 185 points or less as the coach of CLEVELAND has seen a combined average of 213.9 ppg scored. NBA Road teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CLEVELAND) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, well rested team - playing 4 or less games in 10 days are 36-10 OVER L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate. with a combined average of 213.1 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (NEW YORK) - after a win by 10 points or more against opponent after a loss by 10 points or more are 25-5 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 215.2 ppg scored. Play over | |||||||
04-22-23 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning OVER 6 | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show | |
The Leafs bounced back from a 7-3 loss in game one and took game 2 by a 7-2 count. Im now betting on both sides continuing their aggressive offensive play in what my projections estimate will be a barn burner of an affair. TORONTO is 15-6 OVER after scoring 6 goals or more in their previous game over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.3 gpg scored. TORONTO is 19-8 OVER vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.8 gpg scored. TORONTO is 16-5 OVER after a blowout win by 3 goals or more over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.5 gpg scored. TAMPA BAY is 10-3 OVER in home games against good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game this season with a combined average of 6.6 gpg scored. TAMPA BAY is 23-9 OVER against good offensive teams - averaging 29.5+ shots on goal per game in the 2nd half of the year this season with a combined average of 7.1 gog scored. TAMPA BAY is 36-17 OVER against good offensive teams 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or better pp this season with a combined average of 7 gog scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (TORONTO) - very good team - outscoring their opponents by 0.5+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season, after scoring 3 goals or more in 4 straight games are 88-41 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings in Tampa Bay..Play OVER | |||||||
04-22-23 | Rockies v. Phillies UNDER 10.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Rockies starter FREELAND is 20-2 UNDER as a road underdog of +150 to +200 in his career. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.3 rpg scored. Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 5-1 in Phillies last 6 home games vs. a left-handed starter like Rockies starter Freeland. Under is 8-3 in Phillies last 11 home games. Under is 5-0 in Rockies last 5 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 like Phiiles stater Sanchez.Under is 6-1 in Rockies last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter like Phillies starter Sanchez.Under is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 5-1 in Rockies last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Under is 22-8-3 in Rockies last 33 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. COLORADO is 16-5 UNDER with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons with q combined average of 8.1 rpg scored. THOMSON is 22-7 UNDER after a 5 game span where the bullpen ERA was 2.00 or better as the manager of PHILADELPHIA with a combined average of 7 rpg scored. Play on the under | |||||||
04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 240.5 | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 7 h 35 m | Show | |
My projections make this total closer to 235 which gives us close to 2 full possession advantage to the under. SACRAMENTO is 13-3 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with a combined average of 230.5 ppg scored . GOLDEN STATE is 11-3 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season with combined average off 228 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 8-0 UNDER in home games after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this season with s combined 216 ppg scored. GOLDEN STATE is 15-3 UNDER after 4 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with the combined average of 219 ppg. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (SACRAMENTO) - after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days are 54-16 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 77% conversion. Play on the under | |||||||
04-20-23 | Padres v. Diamondbacks UNDER 10 | 7-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 7 m | Show | |
The series starts with Michael Wacha (2-1, 6.06 ERA) going to the hill for San Diego against Ryne Nelson (1-0, 3.71) in a match up of right-handers. Offensively the Padres enter this game struggling to score runs recently and were shutout two times in a row and then followed up with 1 run output last time out . So one run in their L/3 games and have not scored more than 3 runs in game in their L/7 overall. Meanwhile, Arizona has faired better offensively of late, but my pitcher vs batting order power rankings suggest that Wacha should cause their output status immediate regression. Advantage to the under. Under is 5-1 in Padres last 6 road games.Under is 4-1 in Padres last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Under is 7-3 in Padres last 10 overall. ARIZONA is 50-33 UNDER against division opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.6 rpg scored. Under is 12-5-1 in Diamondbacks last 18 home games. Under is 7-3 in Diamondbacks last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter like the Padres expected starter Wacha. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Arizona. Play under | |||||||
04-20-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs OVER 6 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show | |
Toronto was caught flat footed to begin their post season and lost game one to the Tampa Bay Bolts by a 7-3 count. While I doubt the Lightning will put 7 goals on the board here in the 2nd game of this series I still believe on their current form they will hit 3 or more goals. On the flip-side, TB ha been mediocre defensively for much of this season, and now betting on more aggressive offensive posture from the Buds in rebound mode which will help us eclipse this total. It must be noted that 11 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons. TORONTO is 23-11 OVER against good teams - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7 gpg scored. TAMPA BAY is 35-17 OVER against good offensive teams - 29 or more shots on goal, convert 17% or better pp this season with a combined average of 7 gpg scored. TAMPA BAY is 20-10 OVER (+9.5 Units) against good passing teams - averaging 5 or more assists per game in the 2nd half of the year this season with a combined average of 7 gpg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (TAMPA BAY) - good closing team-outscoring opp by 0.2+ goals/game in third period - 2nd half of the season, after scoring 3 goals or more in 4 straight games are 85-37 L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. Play over | |||||||
04-19-23 | Islanders v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | 3-4 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 34 m | Show | |
Isles Im betting will continue to play a conservative style of defensive hockey, and force Carolina into the same type of transitional hockey, which Im betting results in a combined score that remains on the low side of the offered total. CAROLINA is 10-2 UNDER in home games against good starting goalies - (saving 91.5% or more of shots against) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 4 gpg scored. (NYI G Sirokin qualifies)CAROLINA is 10-2 UNDER in home games after allowing 1 goal or less in their previous game this season.(Game one resulted in. aCarolina 2-1 victory). Play under | |||||||
04-17-23 | Nets v. 76ers OVER 213.5 | 84-96 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 48 m | Show | |
Philadelphia poured down 121 points in game 1 for the hefty DD win. The Nets will now have to become more aggressive offensively, while the Sixers will have not problem obliging them with a full blown offensive attack in response. BROOKLYN is 15-5 OVER in a road game where the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons.BROOKLYN is 28-9 OVER when the total is 210 to 219.5 over the last 2 seasons. PHILADELPHIA is 15-6 OVER after 3 straight games where they made 47% of their shots or better this seasons with combined average of 231.4 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (PHILADELPHIA) - after 2 straight blowout wins by 15 points or more against opponent after a blowout loss by 15 points or more are 77-36 OVER L/26 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (BROOKLYN) - revenging 2 straight losses where opp scored 100 or more points, extremely well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 7 days are 56-25 OVER L/27 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors. Play over | |||||||
04-17-23 | Giants v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show | |
The Marlins on Monday will start lefty Jesus Luzardo (2-0, 1.93 ERA). According to my power rankings he matches up well vs the SF batting order. When or iff he leaves this game Miami has well rested bullpen performers ready to go with lefty A.J. Puk, and righty Dylan Floro. Puk, a former starter in his college career, has a 1.50 ERA so far this season. He's using his upper-90s fastball against lefties and his slider versus lefties giving them fits.Floro a finesse pitcher, owns a 0.00 ERA in six appearances, and gets hitters to chase by using his sinker-slider combo. Meanwhile, on the flipside Logan Webb armed and with his new 90 million dollar contract will be primed to perform here against a struggling Miami offense. Advantage to the under. Under is 3-1-1 in Giants last 5 vs. National League East. SAN FRANCISCO is 18-6 UNDER in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4 or less runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored.
Under is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 overall. Under is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 on grass.Under is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 vs. National League West.Under is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 home games vs. a right-handed starter.Under is 4-0 in Marlins last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.Under is 4-0-1 in Marlins last 5 home games.Under is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 13-5-1 in the last 19 meetings. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
04-16-23 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins UNDER 7 | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 4 h 26 m | Show | |
Miami Marlins Right-hander Sandy Alcantara, the reigning National League Cy Young Award winner im betting matches up very well vs the the Dbacks batting order and should limit their production to a minimum here today. Meanwhile, , Arizona will start right-hander Zac Gallen (1-1, 4.58 ERA). Gallen is coming off a career year in 2022, when he went 12-4 with a 2.54 ERA in 31 starts for Arizona. After a rough start this season, Gallen settled down last time out and pitched seven scoreless innings against the Brewers. He struck out 11 and allowed just three hits and one walk and has momentum entering this tilt. Im betting these two hurlers go long and strong and we see little offensive production making for a lower scoring affair. Miami hurler ALCANTARA is 16-4 UNDER when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5.5 rpg scored. ALCANTARA is 15-5 UNDER at home when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Under is 3-1-2 in Marlins last 6 home games vs. a right-handed starter like Arizonas Gallen . Under is 4-1-2 in Marlins last 7 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Under is 10-3-2 in Marlins last 15 vs. a team with a winning record. Play under | |||||||
04-15-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 230.5 | 99-112 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 4 m | Show | |
Entering the play offs Atlanta s offense is hitting on all cylinders averaging 123.6 ppg in their L/5 trips the court, and Im betting they will for the most part keep up that tiop tier offensive pace tonight in Boston . We know Boston is a solid defensive side, but when pressured can turn up their offense, and thats what Im betting the Celtics will be forced into doing today. BOSTON is 8-1 OVER versus good offensive teams - scoring 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 239.7 ppg scored. ATLANTA is 11-3 OVER versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 13 or less turnovers/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combine average of 244.6 ppg scored.ATLANTA is 15-3 OVER after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games this season with a combined average of 242.3 ppg scored. Play on the over | |||||||
04-15-23 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 8.5 | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 50 m | Show | |
Both these offenses are of the sub prime variety and Im betting they will once again find the sledding tough in todays matchup. In the first two games of this series a total of 8 runs have been scored with each side recording a shutout and a rinse and repeat scenario from a total runs perspective is a good bet here. The Cards have gone under in 9 of their L/10 overall, and the Pirates have gone under in 3 straight and 4 of their L/6 overall. Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 vs. National League Central.Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-0 in Pirates last 4 road games.Under is 12-2 in Pirates last 14 during game 3 of a series.Under is 5-1-1 in Pirates last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 like Matz. PITTSBURGH is 22-10 UNDER on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.3 rpg scored. SHELTON is 31-17 UNDER in road games after scoring 1 run or less as the manager of PITTSBURGH with a combined average of 8 rpg scored. Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.Under is 7-0 in Cardinals last 7 games vs. a right-handed starter. MARMOL is 20-9 UNDER after scoring 3 runs or less 2 straight games as the manager of ST LOUIS with a combined average of 6.7 rpg scored. ST LOUIS is 7-0 UNDER vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 or less errors/game this season with a combined average of 7.2 rpg scored. . MLB Road teams (PITTSBURGH) - after being shut out in a loss to a division rival, starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing are 44-13 UNDER L/276 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. MLB Road teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (PITTSBURGH) - after being shut out in a loss to a division rival, starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing are 29-7 L/26 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. Play under | |||||||
04-14-23 | Sabres v. Blue Jackets OVER 7 | 5-2 | Push | 0 | 12 h 52 m | Show | |
These teams will not be in the post season, and Im betting on this being a loose run and gun tilt that sees very little attention paid to solid defensive transitional hockey. Edge to the over. Im projecting both sides score 3+ goals. BUFFALO is 37-0 OVER when both teams score 3 or more goals this season. COLUMBUS is 28-1 OVER ( when both teams score 3 or more goals this season. BUFFALO is 12-1 OVER against poor possession teams-averaging 3+ less shots on goal than opp this season with a combined average of 8.5 gpg. BUFFALO is 10-2 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 8.4 gpg scored.BUFFALO is 7-1 OVER after winning their previous game in overtime this season with a combined average of 8.3 gpg scored. COLUMBUS is 6-0 OVER off a home win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.9 gpg. COLUMBUS is 8-0 OVER off a close win by 1 goal over a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.9 gpg scored.COLUMBUS is 12-1 OVER off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8 gpg going on the board. Over is 12-2 in the last 14 meetings in Columbus Play on the over | |||||||
04-14-23 | Orioles v. White Sox UNDER 9 | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 9 h 10 m | Show | |
Both these pitchers Clevinger and Wells , matchup well here vs each opposing batting order according to my early season power rankings. Factoring in the bullpens and edger to the under makes for viable wagering opportunity. Under is 15-6-1 in Orioles last 22 road games vs. a right-handed starter like Clevinger. Under is 3-0-1 in White Sox last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 3-0-1 in White Sox last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter like Baltimores Wells. Under is 6-0-2 in White Sox last 8 games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.Under is 6-1 in White Sox last 7 vs. American League East. BALTIMORE is 14-3 UNDER in road games against AL Central opponents over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 6.8 rpg scored.BALTIMORE is 25-12 UNDER vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7.8 rpg scored. The last 6 games in this series played in south side Chicago have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . Play under | |||||||
04-14-23 | Bulls v. Heat OVER 208 | 91-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 51 m | Show | |
Chicago has won 3 straight in this series, with all those games eclipsing this offered total. Im betting on a rinse and repeat situation today. MIAMI is 8-0 OVER when playing with triple revenge - 3 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 230.9 ppg scored. Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 overall. Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 7-0 in Heat last 7 home games. NBA teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (CHICAGO) - after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games, second half of the season are 41-15 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Miami. Play on the over | |||||||
04-12-23 | Nationals v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show | |
Washington left-hander MacKenzie Gore (2-0, 2.38), who will start Wednesday's game, has pitched well in his first two start and now expecting he has another good start and will help contribute to what Im betting will be a lower scoring affair. Washingtons starter GORE in 6 games against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) has seen a combined average of 7 rpg scored. Under is 4-1-2 in Angels last 7 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 10-2 in Nationals last 12 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter like Canning. LA ANGELS are 19-7 UNDER in home games vs. a bad bullpen that blows 38% or more of their save opportunities over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 7 rpg. LA ANGELS are 23-11 UNDER vs. teams outscored by opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.LA ANGELS are 30-15 UNDER as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. Under is 5-1-2 in the last 8 meetings in Los Angeles. Under is 6-1-2 in the last 9 meetings. Play under | |||||||
04-11-23 | Wolves v. Lakers OVER 231 | 102-108 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 59 m | Show | |
My projections estimate a combined score that reaches the mid 230s plus here. With the Wolves defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert out because of suspension, Im betting the now healthy Lakers really push this pace and force a capable and willing Wolves group into a run and gun affair. The Lakers ranked 3rd in pace in the NBA this season and 6th in ppg offense and 20th in ppg allowed. (Lakers have gone over in 8 straight games) The Wolves ranked 18th in ppg allowed and 8th in pace in the NBA and were in the top half of the league in scoring offense. MINNESOTA is 7-0 OVER in road games revenging a loss vs opponent of 10 points or more this season with a combined average of 247.9 ppg scored. (Lakers beat the Wolves 123-111 L/week) MINNESOTA is 31-19 OVER in road games versus poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 46% or more over the last 2 seasons. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (LA LAKERS) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or more of their shots are 30-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play over | |||||||
04-11-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | 1-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 30 m | Show | |
Both these teams will be in the play offs and both can still move up in the standings before we enter the post season. With both sides still playing hard Im expecting an aggressive game and with more than enough goals going on the board to eclipse this soft total.. Over is 3-0-1 in Golden Knights last 4 vs. Pacific.Over is 6-1 in Golden Knights last 7 home games.Over is 9-4-1 in Golden Knights last 14 overall. Over is 6-2-1 in Kraken last 9 vs. a team with a winning record.Over is 3-1-1 in Kraken last 5 road game. NHL Road teams against the total (SEATTLE) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 0.3+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season, after scoring 4 goals or more in 4 straight games are 44-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 7.5 gpg scored. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (SEATTLE) - after successfully covering the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team in the 2nd half of the season are 23-5 OVER L/27 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors with a combined average of 7.6 gpg scored. Play over | |||||||
04-11-23 | Nationals v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show | |
Angels starting hurler OHTANI is 7-0 UNDER vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 5 rpg going on the board.OHTANI is 20-7 UNDER as a home favorite of -110 or higher since 1997. (Team's Record) OHTANI is 12-3 UNDER when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record) Across his first two starts Ohtani is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA. He has 18 Ks in 12.0 innings total. I know Washington scored 6 or more runs in each of the past 4 games , but 3 of those were in the launching pad known as Coors Field, but here against a top tier hurler like Ohtani Im betting on offensive regression which will contribute to a lower scoring affair. NEVIN is 15-4 UNDER vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse as the manager of LA ANGELS. Under is 3-1-1 in Nationals last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.Under is 15-5-3 in Nationals last 23 interleague road games.Under is 4-1-2 in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles. Under is 22-9-4 in Angels last 35 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 9-4 in Angels last 13 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. Play under | |||||||
04-10-23 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show | |
Lefty Wiley goes to the hill for the Brewers and he is backed by a strong looking bullpen that has recorded a minuscule 0.84 ERA. The Dbacks have struggled against southpaws this season so far as is evident by a .220 BA and those struggles Im betting continue today. Under is 8-3 in Brewers last 11 road games vs. a right-handed starter.MILWAUKEE is 12-2 UNDER in road games when playing on Monday over the last 3 seasons. Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings. Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in Arizona. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
04-09-23 | Royals v. Giants OVER 8.5 | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 7 h 23 m | Show | |
My projections expect a total combined score of 9+ runs here giving us value with an over wager. Over is 6-1 in Royals last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter like the Giants expected starter A. Desclafani. Over is 5-0 in Royals last 5 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record.Over is 8-1 in Royals last 9 road games. Over is 11-3 in Royals last 14 interleague games vs. a right-handed starter.Over is 15-5 in Royals last 20 interleague games. Over is 5-1 in Giants last 6 vs. American League Central.Over is 4-1 in Giants last 5 interleague games. SAN FRANCISCO is 10-1 OVER after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 11.5 rpg scored. KAPLER is 21-6 OVER after a game where the bullpen was rocked for 5 or more earned runs as the manager of SAN FRANCISCO with a combined average of 10.2 rpg going on the board. MLB teams where the total is 8.5 to 10 (KANSAS CITY) - very bad AL offensive team (3.6 or less runs/game) against a team with a bad bullpen (ERA 5.00 or more), after 2 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base are 40-12 OVER L/26 seasons. Play over | |||||||
04-09-23 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 224.5 | 105-121 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 55 m | Show | |
The Bucks will be resting almost the entire core of their team, and Im betting that they will instead concentrate on playing a conservative defensive minded game behind a coaching staff that recognizes the importance of being disciplined in transition entering post season play. This Im betting results in a lower scoring affair. Also with a depleted lineup last time out the Bucks allowed the Grizzlies to pound down 137 points, they will be more aware here defensively in this spot play vs the Toronto Raptors who could also rest a big portion of their team.Under is 10-4 in Bucks last 14 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game. Under is 11-3 in Raptors last 14 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings. Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Toronto. Play UNDER | |||||||
04-08-23 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | 8-12 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
Arizonas starter DAVIES is 12-1 UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) ARIZONA is 16-1 UNDER with a team slugging percentage of .430 or better on the season (NL) over the last 2 seasons. Under is 7-1 in Dodgers last 8 during game 3 of a series. Under is 8-2 in Dodgers last 10 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Under is 12-3-1 in the last 16 meetings in Arizona. Under is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings. Play under | |||||||
04-08-23 | Lightning v. Senators UNDER 6.5 | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
The Tampa Bay Bolts have a play off spot wrapped up and right now they are more interested in staying healthy than garnering wins as post season play approaches. What Im betting the Bolts are interested in, however, is to be more conservative in transition, and to focus more on good defensive fundamentals after allowing 6 goals in two straight games. Because of this Im expecting a concerted effort on D from the Lightning and for a Ottawa side that has not scored more than 3 goals in 4 straight and 7 of their L/10 to struggle to score goals. This combination will Im betting result in a combined score that remains on the low side of the total. TAMPA BAY is 12-4 UNDER in road games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.3 gg going on the scoreboard. OTTAWA is 26-13 UNDER in home games against good starting goalies - saving 91.5% or better of shots against over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 5.5 gpg scored. Play under | |||||||
04-08-23 | Wolves v. Spurs OVER 233.5 | 151-131 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show | |
Minnesota has been off since Tuesday, and will have plenty of energy to run and gun here tonight vs what is usually a poor Spurs defense ranked last in the NBA in ppg allowed and defensive efficiency. The Spurs are off 129-127 win vs Portland last time out and run the 2nd ranked pace in the NBA and Im betting on more wide hoops tonight against a fresh Wolves side. Over is 7-3 in Timberwolves last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.Over is 35-16 in Timberwolves last 51 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Over is 5-1 in Spurs last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.Over is 10-4 in Spurs last 14 games following a straight up win. Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in San Antonio. Play on the over | |||||||
04-08-23 | Royals v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | 6-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 11 m | Show | |
Royals right-hander Brady Singer (1-0, 1.80 ERA)Im betting will duplicate his effort in a 9-5 home victory over the Toronto Blue Jays this past Monday. He worked the first five innings, allowing the Jays to one run on two hits. Meanwhile, the Giants starter Manaea will be making his first home start since joining the Giants as a free agent in December and Im also betting he will be primed to compete.Under is 6-2-1 in Royals last 9 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Note: KC has scored 3 or less runs in 4 straight and 5 of 8 games and have already been shutout 3 times. SF has been shutout twice already this season and scored 3 or less runs in 4 of 7 games. More offensive struggles look imminent today, Play under | |||||||
04-07-23 | Suns v. Lakers OVER 225.5 | 107-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show | |
Phoenix has won a season-high seven straight games entering this meeting against the Lakers, and Im betting will push the home team hard today in a tilt I have pegged to be a back forth event that will see aggressive offensive action. With this being a back to back situation for the Suns Im sure they wont get physical and their defense positioning will suffer. I do also expect the Lakers James and Anthony to suit up despite of being questionable . The Lakers are trying to avoid playing play in game so all decks should be on the agenda tonight. the most recent meeting in this series sae a combined 233 points scored. Rinse and repeat . Over is 6-0 in Lakers last 6 overall. Over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Over is 6-1-1 in Suns last 8 road games. Play over | |||||||
04-07-23 | Bulls v. Mavs UNDER 229.5 | 115-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show | |
My projections estimate a combined score of 225 ppg giving us almost a two two full possession edge on an under wager cashing. DALLAS is 12-1 UNDER off a home no-cover where the team won straight up as a favorite over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204 ppg scored. CHICAGO is 15-4 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or better of their attempts - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 217.5 ppg scored. NBA team (DALLAS/CHICAGO) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%), in April games are 28-6 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (DALLAS) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better ) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 36-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play under | |||||||
04-07-23 | Nationals v. Rockies UNDER 11 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Colorado shutout Washington yesterday 1-0 and another low scoring game is my forecast here today . Colorados starter URENA is 16-4 UNDER in home games vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse since 1997. (Team's Record) with a combined average of 6.5 rpg scored. Colorado has not scored more than 4 runs in 6 straight games. Washington has scored 2 or less runs in 5 of their 7 games this season. COLORADO is 11-0 UNDER after shutting out their opponent over the last 3 seasons.COLORADO is 8-0 UNDER after a game with a combined score of 2 runs or less over the last 3 seasons. COLORADO is 16-1 UNDER after a game with a combined score of 3 runs or less over the last 2 seasons. ( the combined score of these games were all well below this offering) Under is 6-0 in Rockies last 6 vs. National League East. COLORADO is 22-9 UNDER vs. a team with an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 8.8 rpg scored. Under is 6-0 in Nationals last 6 when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-0-2 in Nationals last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.Under is 4-0-1 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Play under | |||||||
04-07-23 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 8 | 3-9 | Loss | -120 | 5 h 10 m | Show | |
Tylor Megill (1-0, 3.60 ERA) is expected take the hill for the Mets against Edward Cabrera (0-0, 4.50 ERA) in a matchup of right-handers going against each other for the second time this season. Megill allowed two runs over five innings while Cabrera gave up two runs in four innings in the first meeting. Im betting we see them continue their successes here today and for both bullpens to stand tall in support.Under is 3-0-1 in Marlins last 4 road gamesUnder is 4-1 in Mets last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days .NY METS are 13-3 UNDER in home games in April games over the last 3 seasons. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
04-06-23 | Heat v. 76ers UNDER 220.5 | 129-101 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 30 m | Show | |
As Philadelphia prepares for a play off run, they have begun to hone their defensive skills and are not not running and gunning like they were during their mid season portion of their so far successful campaign. Philadelphia ranks 3rd in the NBA in ppg allowed. the last time the 76ers played the Heat back on March 1st the held the Heat to just 96 points. MIAMI is 10-2 UNDER in road games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season with a combined average of 210.3 ppg scored. Meanwhile, the Heat have gone Under in 4 straight road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 road games. Im betting on another lower scoring affair in this spot play. Spoelstra in 280 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points as the coach of MIAMI has seen a combined average score of 202.4 ppg scored. MIAMI is 9-1 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive overs this season with a combined average of 204.6 ppg scored. The L/4 meetings in this series have not eclipsed this Totals offering. The L/4 meetings in this series have also seen one of these teams not eclipse the 100 point plateau. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (PHILADELPHIA) - a good team (60% to 75%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), in April games are 94-50 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors. Play under | |||||||
04-05-23 | Guardians v. A's OVER 8 | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
Cleveland bats are currently on fire and have brought 18 runs across the plate in their L/2 games, and Im betting they light up As starter Muller here today which gives us an a pronounced edge to the over.Note: Oakland has allowed 31 runs in their L/3 trips to the diamonds. These teams took part in a 12-11 slugfest and Im betting on not of lot of regression in this meeting. Over is 3-0-1 in Guardians last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. Over is 4-0-2 in Athletics last 6 vs. American League Central. Over is 6-0-1 in Athletics last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Play on the over | |||||||
04-05-23 | Phillies v. Yankees OVER 7 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
Two quality right handed pitchers Cole (NYY )and Nola for Philadelphia go head to head against two quality offensive lineups. Both teams hit righties well and even the best of pitchers in this league would have problems with these batting orders. Im expecting a decent offensive utput by these sides today in a game that I pegged to eclipse this offered total. Over is 4-1-1 in the last 6 meetings.Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings in New York. Over is 4-1 in Phillies last 5 interleague road games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 6-1 in Yankees last 7 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. COLE is 25-11 OVER in home games vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season with a combined average of 10 rpg scored. NY YANKEES are 15-1 OVER L/16 vs. NL teams scoring 3.5 or less runs/game on the season with a combined average of 12.4 rpg scored. BOONE is 22-10 OVER (+10.9 Units) in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season as the manager of NY YANKEES with a combined average of 11.2 rpg scored. MLB Home teams where the total is 7 or less (NY YANKEES) - good team from last season, outscored opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game are 79-38 OVER L/27 seasons for a 68% conversion rate for bettors. Play over | |||||||
04-04-23 | Diamondbacks v. Padres UNDER 7 | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 29 m | Show | |
The Padres send Yu Darvish to the hill this afternoon vs the DBacks. The right hander finished eighth in the 2022 Cy Young voting and matches up well here according to my early season power rankings. DARVISH is 12-0 UNDER ( when the money line is -100 to -150 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record) with a combined average 4.6 rpg scored. Arizona's Zac Gallen, who finished fifth in the 2022 Cy Young race goes for the Dbacks. He has struggled of late in the spring and his opener, but he matches up well vs the Padres batting order.Gallen, who went. 12-4 in 31 starts last season with a 2.54 ERA, a league-leading 0.913 WHIP and a .186 opponents' batting average. Im betting both hurlers go fairly deep today and both bullpens stand tall behind them when need be. Under is 4-0 in Diamondbacks last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Play under | |||||||
04-03-23 | Predators v. Stars UNDER 6 | 1-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
Nashville has played strong defense of late allowing 3 goals or less in 6 of their L/7 games overall and after a 6-1 blowout win vs the Blues last time out Im now betting their top tier defensive posture continues and for them to regress offensively here today vs Dallas which will give us an edge on a under bet cashing. Note: NASHVILLE is 9-0 UNDER in road games off a win by 3 goals or more over a division rival over the last 2 seasons.NASHVILLE is 8-1 UNDER off a blowout win by 4 goals or more over a division rival over the last 3 seasons. Under is 8-3 in Stars last 11 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game Also the Stars are on tired legs . . Under is 20-8-1 in Stars last 29 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. Under is 33-14-4 in Stars last 51 vs. a team with a winning record. Four of the L/5 meetings in this series have seen 5 combined goals or less go on the board, with one of those game seeing 6 combined goals go on the board. Rinse and repeat to the under. Play on the under | |||||||
04-02-23 | Suns v. Thunder UNDER 236 | 128-118 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 59 m | Show | |
When these teams played back on March 13 Oklahoma City grabbed a 124-120 win, but Im betting we do not reach the combined plateau in this tilt. It must be noted that the Suns are currently playing a top tier brand of defensive basketball, as is evident by allowing 105, 103, 100, and 93 points in their L/4 trips to the hardwood and will now not deviate from that strong transitional posture, making for what Im betting will be a lower scoring affair than the lines-makers expect. It must also be noted that PHOENIX is 21-9 UNDER revenging a loss where opponent scored 100 or more points this season with a combined average of 220 ppg scored. PHOENIX is 16-5 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 219.2 ppg scored. Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 games following a straight up loss. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 210 (OKLAHOMA CITY) - an good offensive team (114-118 PPG) against an avg. defensive team (108-114 PPG) after 42+ games, after a loss by 6 points or less are 46-13 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (PHOENIX) - after allowing 95 points or less against opponent after a combined score of 235 points or more are 44-17 OVER L/27 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
04-02-23 | Mavs v. Hawks UNDER 244.5 | 130-132 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 39 m | Show | |
Atlanta took out Dallas 130-122 last time they met in Jan on the 18th. Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Mavs will in the rematch will not try to run and gun again against the Hawks, and Im betting will instead be more conservative in transition. DALLAS is 8-1 UNDER in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 218.8 ppg scored. Under is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Under is 7-1 in Mavericks last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record. Under is 5-1 in Mavericks last 6 road games. DALLAS is 9-1 UNDER after a game where they made 55% of their shots or better over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 207.5 ppg scored. Kidd is 11-2 UNDER after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of DALLAS with a combined average of 216.8 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (DALLAS/ATLANTA) - in a game involving two marginal losing teams (40 to 49%), in April games are 26-4 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
04-01-23 | Miami-FL v. Connecticut UNDER 149.5 | 59-72 | Win | 100 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Thee teams can light up the board, but in this type of game defense is what will bring home the victory. Im betting on a grueling physical defensive event that will remain on the low side of the total. Under is 6-2 in Hurricanes last 8 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 6-1 in Huskies last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. CONNECTICUT is 7-1 UNDER in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game after 15+ games this season with a combined average of 133.6 ppg scored. MIAMI is 15-6 UNDER in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 140.7 ppg scored. MIAMI is 10-1 UNDER in road games after allowing 80 points or more over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 134.9 ppg scored. - Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (MIAMI) - off 2 or more consecutive upset wins as an underdog, top level team, winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 23-6 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 79% conversion rate. Neutral court teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points (CONNECTICUT) - playing with 5 or 6 days rest are 178-012 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 63% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-31-23 | Guardians v. Mariners UNDER 8 | 9-4 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 56 m | Show | |
Mariners starter Ray In 32 games last season procured a 12-12 record and had a 3.71 ERA and a 1.190 WHIP.He ranked 31st in ERA (3.71), 31st in WHIP (1.190), and 10th in K/9 (10.1) among qualified pitchers in the majors last year and according to my early season power rankings matches up well vs this Guardians batting order. Ray is 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in four career appearances against Cleveland, including three starts. On the flipside I know Gaddis does not inspire the same confidence in being able to curb the Mariners bats , but he is under rated according to my projections and should do just fine here and if he falters he has the benefit of having the backing of a viable bullpen, Everything points to a lower scoring affair. Under is 5-0 in Guardians last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.Under is 4-0 in Guardians last 4 road games.Under is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 overall.Under is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 on grass.Under is 7-1 in Guardians last 8 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.Under is 6-1-1 in Guardians last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Under is 12-3 in Guardians last 15 during game 2 of a series. Under is 13-3 in Mariners last 16 during game 2 of a series. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Seattle. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-31-23 | Pistons v. Rockets UNDER 229.5 | 115-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
You have heard of slugfest , well this tilt Im betting wont be one of them. Get ready for a Sleepfest instead between to team with nothing left to play for other than a strong draft choice. Under is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Under is 5-0 in Rockets last 5 home games. Under is 7-0 in Pistons last 7 road games. DETROIT is 12-2 UNDER versus poor defensive teams - allowing 116+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons with a combined average of 223.6 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (HOUSTON) - in a game involving 2 lower tier teams - outscored by opponents by 7+ PPG, after a combined score of 235 points or more are 27-3 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 90% conversion rate for bettors. NBA team (DETROIT) - in a game involving two lower tier defensive teams (118 PPG or more) are 64-24 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. Play under | |||||||
03-31-23 | Rangers v. Sabres UNDER 6.5 | 2-3 | Win | 112 | 11 h 5 m | Show | |
The Rangers have not allowed more than 3 goals in game in 12 straight games, and Im betting that those strong defensive numbers remain intact tonight vs a Sabres side that has not scored more than 3 goals in 5 of their L/6 trips to the ice. The last time these teams played the Rangers won a tightly contested 2-1 contest and according to my projections another lower scoring tilt must be expected. Note : The L/2 meetings here in Buffalo were 2-1 results favoring the Rangers. Under is 4-0-1 in Rangers last 5 road games.Under is 3-1-1 in Rangers last 5 overall. Under is 3-1-1 in Rangers last 5 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. NHL Road teams where the total is 6 or more (NY RANGERS) - off a close road loss by 1 goal, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the 2nd half of the season are 37-15 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. NHL Road teams against the total (NY RANGERS) - off a close road loss by 1 goal, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 42-21 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 21-7 in the last 28 meetings in Buffalo. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-30-23 | UAB v. North Texas OVER 127.5 | 61-68 | Win | 100 | 14 h 5 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. The Blazers are yet again one of the highest scoring teams in the country under Andy Kennedy and have successfully in their two most recent meetings this season been able to force N.Texas into opening up as is evident by a 76-69 Neutral court win last time they met in the Conference play offs, and their last regular season game that saw N.Texas procure a 82-79 victory. Both these teams are solid at the charity stripe, which is key to this over bet. UAB is 9-1 OVER versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or less points/game this season. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is 129.5 or less (N.TEXAS/UAB) - in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game).are 44-14 OVER L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors. Play OVER | |||||||
03-30-23 | Blues v. Blackhawks OVER 6.5 | 5-3 | Win | 109 | 12 h 9 m | Show | |
Blues have average 6 gpg in 3 straight and enter into this tilt with offensive momentum against a sub par defensive side that has allowed 4.4 gpg in their L/5 trips to the ice. Im betting on the Blues lighting up the Blackhawks in this one and to continue their current onslaught. Meanwhile, the Blues in wide open fashion have allowed 12 goals in their L/2 games and 3 goals or more in 5 straight and Im betting that the fast asleep Blackhawks find holes that are not always available to them which makes this a viable over wager.
ST LOUIS is 6-0 OVER in road games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days this season with a combined average of 8.5 gpg scored. CHICAGO is 5-0 OVER after 6 or more consecutive losses this season with a combined average of 7.7 gpg scored. NHL Home teams against the total (CHICAGO) - poor offensive team - scoring 2.55 or better goals/game on the season - 2nd half of the season, after a blowout loss by 3 goals or more in their previous game are 35-11 OVER L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors. NHL Home teams against the total (CHICAGO) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, slow starting team-outscored by opp by 0.2+ goals/game in first period - 2nd half of the season are 37-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 84% conversion rate for bettors. Play over | |||||||
03-30-23 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 236.5 | 140-99 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
Boston ranks 6th in ppg allowed this season/4th in defensive efficiency and rank 18th in pace, while the Bucks rank 3rd in defensive efficiency and 10th in pace. Both teams can score in bunches but in this type of affair between two of the top teams in the NBA a more conservative defensive minded approach must be expected especially with the play offs around the corner. Also the Bucks played last night in run gun fashion posting 149-136 win so instant offensive regression and tired legs vs a strong defensive side will effect their aggressiveness here and overall output giving us an edge on a under wager. Under is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 games playing with no rest. Under is 8-3 in Bucks last 11 games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game. MILWAUKEE in 57 games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons have seen a combined average of 221.6 ppg scored. MILWAUKEE in 18 games as a home favorite of 6 points or less this season have seen a combined average of 227.3 ppg scored. Under is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. BOSTON in 18 road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season have seen a combined average of 221.7 ppg scored. BOSTON is 12-1 UNDER on the road when the line is +3 to -3 this season with a combined average of 217.3 ppg scored. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (MILWAUKEE) - off a road win by 10 points or more, in a game involving two good teams are 31-4 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 87% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-29-23 | Clippers v. Grizzlies OVER 228.5 | 141-132 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show | |
Clippers always seem to play a more aggressive offensive style on the road, and Im betting nothing changes tonight against their hosts their explosive hosts the Memphis Grizzlies. Over is 21-8 in Clippers last 29 road games. Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Over is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.(Beat the Bulls 124-112 last time out) Over is 18-7-1 in Grizzlies last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Over is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 overall. NBA team (LA CLIPPERS) - good free throw shooting team (76-79%) against an average free throw shooting team (72-76%), hot shooting team - 4 straight games making 47% or better of their shots are 38-13 OVER L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate. Over is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Play over | |||||||
03-29-23 | Panthers v. Maple Leafs OVER 7 | 3-2 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
Florida has allowed 4 or more goals in 6 of their L/8 and 5 goals or more in 5 of those games. Needless to say it is the lack of solid D, and top tier goaltending that has seen them lose four straight games and tonight against the capable offense of the Leafs Im betting they get lit up again in what Im betting will end up in a high scoring game. Note: Leafs have seen an average of 7.8 gpg go on the board in their L/5 trips to the ice. When these teams played in Florida on March 23rd the Leafs took a 6-2 victory. Im projecting a +8 combined output today. FLORIDA in 5 road games revenging a home loss versus opponent of 2 goals or more this season have seen a combined average of 8.4 gpg scored. .FLORIDA is 8-1 OVER revenging a blowout loss vs opponent of 3 goals or more this season with a combined average of 7.6 gpg scored. FLORIDA is 16-3 OVER off a road loss this season with a combined average of 7.7 gpg scored. (Lost at Ottawa last time out by a 5-2 count) Over is 3-0-1 in Panthers last 4 vs. Atlantic.Over is 5-1-1 in Panthers last 7 road games. Over is 7-0-1 in Maple Leafs last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 3-0-1 in Maple Leafs last 4 vs. Atlantic. Over is 7-1-1 in the last 9 meetings. Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Toronto. Play over | |||||||
03-28-23 | Jets v. Sharks UNDER 6.5 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show | |
Tuesday is the final stop of the Jets' three-game road trip against California teams and on tired legs Im betting they are not prepared to skate and gun, and instead I expect they will lean on good defensive play and top tier goaltending to get the job done. This will in effect keep scoring to a marginal amount. Also the Jets have not scored more than 3 goals in their L/8 games and in 10 of their L/11 overall. So paying attention in transition is obviously key for the Jets here tonight on the road. Under is 21-5 in Jets last 26 road games. Under is 8-3-1 in Sharks last 12 vs. a team with a winning record. WINNIPEG is 22-4 UNDER after 3 or more consecutive unders this season with a combined average of 5.3 gpg scored. WINNIPEG is 8-0 UNDER ) against terrible teams - outscored by opponents by 0.5+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 4.3 gpg scored. WINNIPEG is 7-0 UNDER when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the second half of the season this season with a combined average of 4.2 gpg scored. Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings. Play under | |||||||
03-28-23 | Wisconsin v. North Texas OVER 115 | 54-56 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 2 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. CBB Neutral court teams against the total (North TEXAS /WISCONSIN) - in a game involving two below average offensive teams (63-67 PPG) are 36-18 OVER L/5 seasons for a 68% conversion rate with the average combined score of 131.4 ppg going on the board. Play over | |||||||
03-26-23 | Blues v. Kings UNDER 6.5 | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 1 m | Show | |
In their L/10 games the LA Kings have only allowed more than 2 goals one time and my projections estimate another top tier defensive effort here by what has suddenly become a solid goaltending group since the team parted ways with Johnathon Quick. Yes, I know the Blues have doing well offensively of late, but that will make the Kings even more disciplined in transition. Meanwhile, visiting St.Louis has not allowed more than 3 goals in 5 straight and now on tired legs as they play their 4th game in 6 nights Im expecting a more tempered and conservative effort here vs a team they know could light them up quickly.
Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Los Angeles. Under is 2-0-2 in the last 4 meetings. NHL home teams where the total is 6 or more (LOS ANGELES) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 37-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
03-23-23 | Michigan State v. Kansas State OVER 137 | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 10 h 23 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections estimate both sides to eclipse the 70 point plateau giving us value with an over wager in todays NCAA matchup between Michigan State and Kansas State. MICHIGAN ST is 11-3 OVER after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better this season with a combined average of 1461. ppg scored. KANSAS ST is 6-0 OVER in road games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 72% or better of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 149.1 ppg scored. KANSAS ST is 8-1 OVER in road games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 148.3 ppg scored. KANSAS ST in their L/31 games as an underdog over the last 2 seasons have seen a combined average score of 147.6 ppg scored. Play over | |||||||
03-22-23 | Penguins v. Avalanche UNDER 6.5 | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 52 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh offense has really stuttered of late as is evident by averaging just 2 gpg in their L/5 trips to the ice. On the season the Pens have averaged just 2.9 gg and Im betting they once again have problems scoring vs the Avs in this spot play. Meanwhile, Colorado is on a 6 game win streak allowing 2 goals or less in 4 of those 6 tilts. It must be noted that in their L/meeting back on 2/7/2023 the Pens squeezed out a 2-1 win and considering both sides current form another lower scoring affair is to be expected. COLORADO is 13-4 UNDER revenging a same season loss vs opponent this season with an averge of 5.1 gpg scored. PITTSBURGH is 10-3 UNDER in road games against good offensive teams - scoring 2.85+ goals/game - 2nd half of the season this season with a combined average of 5.7 gpg scored.
COLORADO is 23-9 UNDER when playing their 4th game in 7 days this season. NHL Home teams against the total (COLORADO) - after successfully covering the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, in March games are 27-7 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-21-23 | Celtics v. Kings UNDER 238.5 | 132-109 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
The Kings will need to ramp up their D here against a strong Boston side. The Kings have done a decent job on defense for the most part of late, but did have a down effort defensively last time out allowing 128 points in a loss to the Jazz. SACRAMENTO is 39-21 UNDER off a road loss over the last 3 seasons with a combined average with a combined average of 225.9 ppg scored.Under is 3-1-1 in Kings last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.Meanwhile, the Celtics rank 7th in ppg allowed and 4th in defensive rating and ranked 19th in pace, and will be primed to stand tall here defensively against an explosive side. Under is 18-8 in Kings last 26 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 11-3 in Celtics last 14 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Under is 20-8 in Celtics last 28 games playing on 2 days rest. BOSTON is 14-6 UNDER as a road favorite of 6 points or less this season with a combined average of 223.5 ppg scored. BOSTON is 13-4 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season. with a combined average of 220.6 ppg scored. NBA Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (SACRAMENTO) - good 3PT shooting team (36.5% or better) against an average 3PT defense (33-36.5%) after 42+ games, after a game making 19 or more 3 point shots are 35-11 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 76% conversion rate. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 230 (BOSTON) - after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) are 74-32 UNDER L/27 seasons for a 70% conversion rate. Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Sacramento. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-21-23 | North Texas v. Oklahoma State OVER 124 | 65-59 | Push | 0 | 12 h 13 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. My projections mkae this total closer to 128 giving us value with on over wager. CBB teams where the total is between 120 and 129.5 points (N.Texas OKLAHOMA ST) - in a game involving two excellent defensive teams (40% or better), in a game involving two good rebounding teams (+3 to +6 reb/game) are 30-6 OVER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate with the average combined score clicking in at 136.9 ppg. Play over | |||||||
03-19-23 | TCU v. Gonzaga UNDER 156.5 | 81-84 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 20 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. TCU will not run and gun here today with a superior offense, and instead will be primed to turn this into a grinding physical affair . The Horn Frogs have slowed some of the most explosive offenses in the nation that come from the Big 12. TCU has allowed an average of 68 ppg this season. GONZAGA is 7-1 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) after 15 or more games this season . GONZAGA is 6-0 UNDER in road games after scoring 75 points or more 5 straight games this season. TCU is 8-2 UNDER versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game after 15+ games this season. TCU is 10-1 UNDER in March games over the last 2 seasons. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (GONZAGA/TCU) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games are 38-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-18-23 | Canucks v. Kings UNDER 6.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
The Canucks D, has really shored itself up of late allowing 3 or less goals in 7 straight games.Meanwhile LA has not allowed more than 2 goals in 7 straight games. Considering both sides stellar defensive play of late another lower scoring affair is a reasonable expectation on a value Totals offering. Under is 3-0-1 in Canucks last 4 vs. Pacific. Under is 4-1-1 in Kings last 6 home games. NHL Home teams where the total is 6 or more (LOS ANGELES) - hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team in the second half of the season are 36-11 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Play on the UNDER | |||||||
03-18-23 | USC Upstate v. Indiana State UNDER 158 | 62-67 | Win | 100 | 3 h 24 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. USC UPSTATE is 7-1 UNDER in road games after 3 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season with a combined average of 134 ppg going on the board. Dickerson is 6-0 UNDER after 2 straight games where they were called for 22 or more fouls as the coach of USC UPSTATE with a combined average of 128,5 ppg scored. CBB Neutral court teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (USC UPSATE/INDIANA ST) - in a game involving two average defensive teams (42.5-45%) after 15+ games are 36-8 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-17-23 | Wizards v. Cavs UNDER 220.5 | 94-117 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show | |
Cleveland runs at a snails pace ranking 30th in the NBA and rank 1st in ppg allowed in the league and just 25th in ppg offense . CLEVELAND is 13-4 UNDER in home games against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons like Washington with a combined average of 209.2 ppg going on the board. Im betting Cleveland will control the pace of this game , which will result in a lower scoring affair. Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.Under is 4-1 in Wizards last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Under is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. CLEVELAND is 12-3 UNDER in home games when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons with a combined average of 204.2 ppg scored. Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-17-23 | Kennesaw State v. Xavier UNDER 152 | 67-72 | Win | 100 | 93 h 41 m | Show | |
My College basketball sides/Totals projections are based on a system I have used for more than 25 years. The system is has been honed and tweaked multiple times during this period, and is now a viable long term profit based way to calculate value based Totals /Sides offerings from the sports books. ( Coaching systems, pace, officials ,injuries, road.away dichotomies, revenge scenarios and play off seeding desperation are all taken into consideration as is current form and league wide stats/trends dating backs 37 seasons) In other words no stone is left unturned. Play UNDER | |||||||
03-16-23 | Magic v. Suns UNDER 228.5 | 113-116 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show | |
Orlando took out the Suns by a 114-97 count the last time they played this season back on Nov 11. Because of the style of hoops both sides play against comparative sides, a under wager makes sense , based on my own projections which estimate a total closer to 225. PHOENIX is 14-3 UNDER revenging a road loss vs opponent this season with a combined average of 220.2 ppg scored. ORLANDO is 11-3 UNDER in road games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts this season with a combined average of 213.2 ppg scored..ORLANDO is 10-1 UNDER after a blowout loss by 15 points or more this season with a combined average of 217.7 ppg scored. The Magic played little or no D, in a ugly loss to San Antonio last time out, and the coaching staff was not impressed. Im expecting a more concerted and attentive effort in transition here tonight by the Magic. NBA teams where the total is greater than or equal to 220 (PHOENIX) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team are 34-13 UNDER L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors. Play on the UNDER |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ross Benjamin | $675 |
Sean Murphy | $454 |
William Burns | $419 |
Ricky Tran | $323 |
Sean Higgs | $237 |
Will Rogers | $192 |
Joseph D'Amico | $127 |
Joey Tron | $16 |