Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 238.5 | Top | 123-126 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 55 m | Show |
10* UNDER Warriors/Kings (TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER) Golden State had the third best home record in the league, but the fourth worst record on the road. It's difficult to imagine the Warriors repeating this season. Clearly, the last thing that the Warriors want to do is to turn this into a "track meet" for the home side, as that would play directly into Sacramento's game plan. These two teams were two of the highest scoring teams throughout the regular season, but I believe that Golden State will look to the slow the pace of this one down from the outset, and as such, I think this number is high for sure; the play is "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
04-15-23 | Knicks v. Cavs -5.5 | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 35 m | Show |
10* Cavaliers (EAST-CONF RND. 1 GOY) The Knicks went 3-1 in the season series, but I can't understate how important I believe that the "home floor advantage" will be in this series. For both teams. New York was 24-17 on the road, while Cleveland was 31-10 at home. Bad news for Knicks backers here today as star Julius Randle is listed as questionable, and if he does play, he'll be far from 100% health. Emotions will be running high for the Cavs as they make the Playoffs for the first time since 2018. Cleveland has the most efficient offense in the league and everything points to a comfortable win and cover as this one comes down the stretch; lay the points, the play is the Cavs! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-15-23 | Guardians -144 v. Nationals | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
10* Guardians (IL BOB) Ultimately I believe that Zach Plesac and the visiting side could/shoud in fact be much bigger favorites in this spot. Plesac has so far gotten out to a slower start, going 0-0 with an 8.00 ERA after allowing two runs over seevn innings along with six K's in an unfortunate setback to the Mariners in his last outing (note that Plesac owned a 5.29 ERA in all night games last year, compared to just 3.28 ERA in all day games. The Nationals counter with the erratic Chad Kuhl, who is 0-0 with an 8.10 ERA after allowing five runs over five innings in a loss to Colorado last time out. Kuhl was a pedestrian 2-4 with a 5.05 ERA at home last year and I believe he'll struggle in this difficult matchup; lay the price, the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-15-23 | Mets -175 v. A's | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Mets (SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION) The talent discrepancy between these starting pitchers absolutely makes the visiting side worth the price of admission in this one. Carlos Carrasco is coming off a big bounce-back season for the Mets, but he'll be looking to bounce back this year now after starting 0-2 with an 11.42 ERA. He most recently allowed six runs over five innings in a loss to the Fish. Carrasco finished 6-4 with a 4.57 ERA on the road last year and he couldn't have asked for a better opponent to face here the anemic A's. The home side counters with the erratic Shintaro Fujinami, who is 0-2 with a 17.55 ERA after allowing five runs over four innings in a loss to Tampa Ba last time out. Look for Carrasco to be the one to finally settle down here and lay this price with confidence; the play is the Mets! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-15-23 | Hawks v. Celtics -9 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 27 h 8 m | Show |
10* Celtics (BLOCKBUSTER) Atlanta upset the Heat in the Play-In tournament on the road, but I expect an immediate return to mediocrity here. ATL is still just 18-24 away from friendly confines, while Boston is 32-9 at home. Boston won all four regular season games, and all signs point to a blowout here in Game 1 as the C's will look to send n early message. ATL was unable to contain Boston's 3-point shooting in the regular season, and nothing will be different here; lay the points with confidence, the play is Boston! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-15-23 | Nets +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 101-121 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 41 m | Show |
10* Nets (BLOCKBUSTER) Brooklyn went 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS vs. the 76ers during the regular season, but I think the scrappy nets comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch of this one. Philadelphia has consistently done poor in the playoffs over the last few years, and I think the 76ers are getting too much respect here against the Nets, who are 15-9 ATS as a road dog and 12-3 ATS when getting +5 or more points this year. Outright victory is possible, but let's grab the points; the play is Brooklyn! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-14-23 | Thunder v. Wolves -5.5 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
10* Wolves (TOP SIDE) The bottom line here is that beyond Josh Giddey and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC just is not very deep. At this point, I believe that becomes a major factor finally for the Thunder. Also note that Rudy Gobert will be back in the line-up tonight after serving a one-game suspension for an altercation he had with a teammate in the final regular season game. Minnesota went 3-1 SU in the regular season in this series and I expect it to make the most of this matchup once again; lay the points, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-14-23 | Rays v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
10* Jays RUNLINE (ULTIMATE) I had a play on the Rays yesterday in their 9-3 win over the Red Sox. Tampa is now 13-0 and the longer this winning streak continues to open the season for the Rays, the more unrealistic and unsustainable it becomes. Tampa is also clearly being overvalued now at this point by the bookmakers, as the majority of the public, along with seasoned pros are now essentially "blind betting" the Rays, without any real thought put into it at all. These starting pitchers are a "wash." I can make a good argument for either of these talented sides to win, but this comes down to the fact that the public and the oddsmakers have overvalued Tampa now at this point because of the unreal start. Regression is imminent Tampa fans. Regardless, at this price and with the extra 1.5 rums of insurance, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Toronto on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-14-23 | Bulls v. Heat -5.5 | Top | 91-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
10* MIAMI FIRST HALF (ASSASSIN) (NOTE: I also like the Heat for the entire game if you do not have access to FIRST HALF lines.) For the first time in play-in tournament history, the two lower seeds won in the Eastern Conference. The Bulls upset the Raptors 109-105, but I believe they'll have a much harder time of it here in South Beach. Miami comes in off a 116-105 upset loss to Atlanta. Chicago swept the season series 3-0, meaning that the "revenge" factor definitely comes to play here. The Heat are one of the worst teams in the league ATS, but that fact has only helped in driving today's spread a few points lower than it normally would/should be. Miami is as healthy as its been all year and with most of the early money on Chicago, I feel we're getting tremendous value on the undervalued home side. As stated off the top, I like the Heat for the entire game as well, but I look for them to take the early lead into th half; the play is Miami in the first half! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-14-23 | Phillies -141 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 46 m | Show |
10* Phillies (ASSASSIN) I like the Phillies to bounce back here after three straight losses. Note that Philadelphia is 6-2 in its last eight after three or more straight losses in a row. The Phillies go with Taijuan Walker (0-1, 6.00 ERA), while the home side counters with Connor Overton (0-0, 10.13.) The Reds have somehow managed to win both of Overton's starts despite allowing nine runs over 14 innings of work. Walker on the other hand is 2-1 with a 4.98 ERA vs. the Reds, while Overton is fortunate to have two no-decisions vs. the Phillies, as he's posted a combied 10.80 ERA in those contests. Look for Philadelphia to "dig deep" here with the superior starter on the hill; la the price, the play is the Phillies! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-14-23 | Diamondbacks v. Marlins -150 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show | |
8* Marlins (SPECIAL) Miami lost the opener of it three game series in Philadelphia by a score of 15-3, but then it won the next two games. Now back home, I like the Fish to keep the momentum rolling here. The D-Backs are 8-5, but they hand the ball to erratic veteran Madison Bumgarner, who is 0-1 with a 7.27 ERA, most recently going four innings and getting shelled for five runs in a loss to the Dodgers. Miami's offense has hit Bumgarner hard as well (Luis Arraez is 2-3, Stallings is hitting .429 in 7 ABs, Garcia is 2-6, and Hampson is hitting .222 in 27 ABs.) Miami goes with Trevor Rogers, wh is 0-2 with a 6.0) ERA, most recently allowing three runs over five innings to the Mets. Both starters now catch a break facing inferior lineups for the first time. Miami has been better offensivel though and it's always crushed Mad-Bum. Good value here on Rogers bouncing back at home; lay the price, the play is Miami! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-13-23 | Red Sox v. Rays -175 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
10* Rays (AL EAST GOY) I bet underdogs. I bet totals. I also bet favorites. I'm never afraid to "lay chalk," especially when I believe that my "play on" side should in fact be a much larger favorite. And that's the case here. Boston hands the ball to the erratic Corey Kluber, who is 0-2 with a 6.48 ERA after allowing one run over five innings in a loss to Pittsburgh. Note that Kluber was just 3-7 with a 5.08 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with the red hot Jeffrey Springs who is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Rays after going seven innings and scattering three hits with seven K's in an 11-0 win over Oakland. "Recent performance" is HUGE here in my break down of this contest. I look for Springs to keep the good times rolling here, as Tampa punishes Kluber early and often; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Rays! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-12-23 | Royals v. Rangers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Off three straight victories, the Rangers will look to keep things rolling here against the Royals. Texas has seen the total go "over" the number in four straight, which is significant to note as the Rangers have in fact seen the total "under" the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. KC enters off three straight losses, which is also important to take note of here, as the Royals have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after three or more straight losses in a row. Brad Keller is 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA for the Royals, while Nate Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA for the Rangers. Look for these competent starting hurlers to be the main storyline in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
04-12-23 | Bulls v. Raptors OVER 215 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 41 m | Show |
10* OVER Bulls/Raptors (PLAY-IN TOY) We have two really defensive-minded clubs here, but that fact has only helped in driving this O/U line a few points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. Public perception has also driven the opening number down as well. But with the majority going one way, we're going to go the other on this one. Toronto plays much better at home than on the road, as the Raptors are 27-14 North of the border. The Bulls are just 18-23 on the road, and they're going to have to match pace with the home side in this one. Of course, the other interesting factor is DeMar DeRozan playing a possible "revenge" game as well here in Toronto for the Bulls. Chicago lost both regular season games here, but in what I expect to be a faster-paced affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe, I expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-12-23 | White Sox v. Twins -158 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show | |
This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Twins. In the early going in baseball, a good place to start to break down a matchup is with the starting pitching, nd in this case, not only is it the starting point for me, but it's also the ending point. I'm basing this pick on recent form and feel that Sonny Gray and the home side could or should in fact be larger favorites in this spot. The White Sox opened with a slim 4-3 series win, before the Twins responded with a 4-3 win yesterday. So far White Sox' starter Lucas Gioltio has struggled. He's 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA after two starts, most recently he lasted just four innings and allowed 12 hits and seven earned runs in a 13-9 loss to the lowly Pirates on the road. Last year Giolito was good on the road, but this season after two starts he's been terrible. Gray though is 1-0 with a 0.75 ERA after two starts to go along with a 14 to 5 strikeout to walk ratio. Most recently he went seven innings and allowed one run here at home over the Astros. That's saying something for sure in my books. Gray is locked in and on top form and at this price, I think he's well worth the price of admission; lay the price, the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-11-23 | Wolves v. Lakers -6 | Top | 102-108 | Push | 0 | 39 h 55 m | Show |
10* Lakers (PLAY IN GOY) For a number of different reasons, I like the way this one sets up for the Lakers. The majority of the early money is on Minnesota, so as a contrarian at heart, that auto makes me like LA here. But the Wolves will be without Jaden McDaniels, who broke his hand foolishly punching a wall. Big man Rudy Gobert punched Kyle Anderson in a heated moment in the huddle. Minnesota is a mess coming into this game, while LA is at full strength. I look for the Lakers to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn; lay the points with confidence, the play is indeed on the Lakers! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-11-23 | Dodgers -141 v. Giants | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -141 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
10* Dodgers (END OF NIGHT BLOWOUT) I think that Dustin May and the Dodgers are well worth the price of admission in this spot. Ma is 1-0 with a 0.69 ERA after his second straight strong start, going six innings and allowing one run with five K's in a victory over Arizona. May looks to return to his 2021 form after an injury shortened 2022, in which he finished 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Alex Wood, who is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA after going three innings and allowing three runs in a fortunate no-decision vs. the White Sox in his season debut. Wood was pedestrian last year, including just 3-5 with a 4.70 ERA at home. These divisional contests are always exciting, but most lop-sided. In all honesty, I feel that this line should/could in fact be much larger. Great value here on the undervalued visiting side; the play is LA! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-11-23 | Hawks v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 116-105 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
10* Heat FIRST HALF (ASSASSIN. Note: I also like for the ENTIRE game if you don't have access to FIRST HALF lines.) The Heat took three of four regular season meetings with the Hawks. Atlanta has been decent ATS on the road this year, but Miami is very tough at home. The Heat rank second in the league on the defensive end, and I expect that defense to be on top of its game from the "get go" in this one, as to not allow ATL to dictate the tempo; as I say, I like Miami for the whole game as well, but the official call is the Heat in the First Half! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-11-23 | Marlins v. Phillies -149 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -149 | 25 h 24 m | Show |
10* Phillies (BOB) I think that Aaron Nola and the Phillies are well worth the price of admission in this one. Nola is 0-1 with a 7.45 ERA after back-to-back shaky starts. In his last one he did go six innings and struck out five, while allowing three runs though in a no-decision vs. the Yanks. Nola now returns home for the first time this year, and I expect the veteran to be at his best in this one (note that he was 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA at home last season.) The visitors counter with Jesus Luzardo, who is 1-0 with a 0.71 ERA after back-to-back strong outings, ost recently going seven innings and allowing one run in a win over Minnesota. I expect Luzardo to come back down to Earth here finally, while at the same time, all signs point to Nola now stepping up and taking advantage here; lay the price, the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-11-23 | Astros -171 v. Pirates | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -171 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
10* Astros (IL GOM) I think that Christian Javier and the Astros are well worth the price of admission on Tuesday. Javier is 1-0 with a 3.27 ERA after going six innings and allowing one run and striking out five in a victory over Detroit. Javier was great on the road last year, finishing 5-4 with a 2.84 ERA away from friendly confines. He'll be opposed by Mitch Keller, who is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA after going seven innings and allowing one run in a victory over Boston. Keller was just 1-7 with a 4.01 ERA at home last year. After B2B decent road showings, I think Keller regresses here. Houston's pen is superior and so is Javier, so lay the price with confidence, the play is indeed on the Astros! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-10-23 | Royals v. Rangers -165 | Top | 2-11 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
10* Rangers (ASSASSIN) I think that Andrew Heaney and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this one. The Royals hand the ball to veteran Zack Greinke, who is 0-2 with a 2.38 ERA. Heaney is 0-1 with a 23.63 ERA. Suffice it to say, I look for Heaney's second start of the season to be much better. This is a matchup that the doctor ordered for Heaney, as the KC offense has been inconsistent at best. Note that KC is just 15-37 in its last 52 meeting here. The Rangers are also 4-0 i their last four games vs. a starter with a WHIP over 1.30, and Greinke's is currently 1.41. Look for Texas to improve to 5-2 at home this season; the play is the Rangers! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-10-23 | A's v. Orioles -165 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show | |
8* Orioles (PITCHING MISMATCH) I think that Kyle Gibson and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this one. JP Sears is 0-0 with a 5.79 ERA for the A's, while Kyle Gibson is already 2-0 with a 4.50 ERA for the Orioles. Gibson allowed just 2 runs over 7 innings in a win over the hard-hitting Rangers in his last outing, and I expect him to make short work of this pathetic A's line-up as well. Sears should be in the bullpen, but he's being pressed into a starters role out of necessity; lay the price with confidence, the play is Baltimore! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-10-23 | Yankees v. Guardians -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
10* Guardians (AL GOW) I like the way this one sets up for the Guardians. The Yanks go with Domingo German, who is 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA after allowing four runs off four hits over four innings in a loss to the Phillies. He'll be opposed by Shane Bieber, who enters 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA. He gave up three runs and struck out seven in a no-decision vs. the A's in his opener. Bieber has had success vs. the Yanks at past, and at this price on his own field, I feel we are indeed getting tremendous value from the home side; lay the price, the play is CLEVELAND. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-09-23 | Royals v. Giants -153 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
8* Giants (SPECIAL) I think the home side could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this particular instance. The Royals hand the ball to Kyle Bubic, who is 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA after allowing two runs over five innings in his season debut vs. the Jays (note that Bubic was just 2-7 with a 5.39 ERA On the road last season.) The home side counters with Anthon DeSclafani, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after scattering three hits over six innings in a 12-3 win over the White Sox in his season debut. He looks to return to his 2021 form, after an injury-shortened 2022. Look for the Giants' bullpen to be a difference in this one as well; lay the price with confidence, the play is San Francisco! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-09-23 | Yankees -145 v. Orioles | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
10* Yankees (BLOOD-BATH) For a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors Nestor Cortes Jr. and the Yankees. Cortes Jr. is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA this year after going five innings in a win over Philadelphia in his season debut. Cortes Jr. was sharp both at home and on the road last year, finishing 6-3 with a 3.08 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with Tyler Wells, hos is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA after going five innings and striking out two vs. the Rangers. Last year Wells was just 2-2 with a 5.01 ERA at home. Look for Cortes Jr. and the hard-hitting visiting side to take advantage; lay the price, the play is New York! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-09-23 | Reds v. Phillies -171 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -171 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
10* Phillies (ASSASSIN) I feel that Philadelphia is well worth the price of admission in this one. I play dogs, totals, and I'm also not afraid to lay chalk, especially when I feel that my "play on" side should in fact be a much larger favorite. And that's the definitely the case in this one. Connor Overton gets the nod for the Reds, and he's 0-0 with an 11.25 ERA over five runs off eight hits over four innnings. He'll be opposed by vetrean Taijuan Walker, who enters 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA after allowing four runs off four hits over four innings vs. the Yanks in his season debut. Walker has the experience and pedigree to make an immediate return to the winner's circle here and I have no problem laying this larger price on what I expect to be a lop-sided destruction from start to finish. AAA Sports | |||||||
04-08-23 | Nationals v. Rockies -130 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -130 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
10* Rockies (NL BOB) I think that Austin Gomber and the home side could/should in fact be much larger favorites in this one. The visitors go with Trevor Williams, who is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA after allowing four runs over five innings in a 6-2 loss to Tampa Bay in his opener. Note that Williams was 0-4 with a 4.10 ERA on the road last season. The Rockies' Gomber is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA after allowing three runs over six innings in a tight 3-1 loss to San Diego. Considering how weak this Nationals' bullpen is, I feel Gomber for sure should be favored by more at home here; great value on Colorado! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-08-23 | Devils v. Bruins UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
10* UNDER Devils/Bruins (EAST-CONF TOW) There's just a couple of games left in the NHL's regular season, and I expect an all out war here between two of the best. The Devils are 50-21-4-4, while the Bruins are 32-4-1-2. Each is gearing up for a big playoff run. New Jersey has won three of its last four and it enters off a 5-1 win over Pittsburgh. These teams played on December 28th, and Boston won by a score of 3-1. I expect a similar final combined score here as well. The Bruins are 61-12-2-3, including 32-4-1-2 at home and I'm expecting this one to have a "play-off like" atmosphere. We can then expect that pace to help in translating into a very tight and defensive affair here in Boston tonight; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
04-08-23 | Padres v. Braves -153 | 4-1 | Loss | -153 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
8* Braves (BLOOD-BATH) We have an excitig NL matchup here, but it's one that favors Charlie Morton and the home side in my opinion. In fact, I don't think you can underestimate how important the home field advantage will be in this particular matchup. Michael Wacha is 1-0 with a 6.00 ERA for the Padres after allowing four runs over six innings with two K's in a fortunate win over the Rockies in his opener. Charlie Morton gets the call for the home side and he's 1-0 with a 5.06 ERA after allowing three runs over five innings in an 8-4 victory over the Cardinals in his season opener. A battle of veterans here, but as stated off the top, hom field advantage will prove to be the difference for Morton today; lay the price with confidence, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-08-23 | Marlins v. Mets -138 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
8* Mets (MOUND MISMATCH) The talent discrepancy between these starters makes the home side well worth the price of admission in my opinion. Trevor Rogers is 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA for the Marlins after going four innings and allowing four runs in a setback to the Mets in his opener. Rogers was just 2-5 with a 5.00 ERA on the road last season and I think he'll struggle in this difficult away venue. The home side counters with the underrated Kodai Senga, who enters 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA after going 5.1 innings and allowing one run to go along with eight K's in a victory over Miami. Now back at home, I think Senga could/should in fact be a much bigger fav in this one; lay the price with confidence, the play is New York! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-08-23 | Reds v. Phillies -137 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
8* Phillies (ROUT) I think Bailey Falter and the home side are worth the price of admission in this one. Falter is 0-1 with a 3.38 ERA after going 5.1 innings and allowing two runs to go along with three K's in a tight 2-1 setback with the Rangers. Now at home, I like Falter to settle down and take advantage. Nick Lodolo is 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA after going five innings in and allowing two runs with nine K's in a 6-2 victory over Pittsburgh. Lodolo was just 1-3 with a 5.11 ERA on the road though and I think he'll struggle here in this difficult road venue; all things considered, I believe we're getting great line value here on the Phillies! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-07-23 | Cardinals v. Brewers -153 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
8* Brewers (SITUATIONAL MISMATCH) I think Brandon Woodruff and the home side are worth the price of admission in this spot. Woodruff is 0-0 with a 1.50 ERA, while his counterpart Jack Flaherty is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Cardinals. The Brewers have won five straight, including 10-0 and 9-0 destructions of the Mets earlier this week. The Cards enter off three straight losses in Atlanta. That's bad news for St. Louis, as dating back to last year finds Woodruff having gone 8-1 with a 2.33 ERA over his last 19 starts (he was 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA in three starts vs. the Cards last year.) Flaherty hasn't fared as well vs. the Brewers, going 3-6 with a 5.00 ERA in 16 appearances vs. them (he's also just 1-3 with a 5.84 ERA in eight starts at Milwaukee.) All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger; lay the price, the play is Milwaukee! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-07-23 | 76ers v. Hawks -9.5 | 136-131 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 57 m | Show | |
8* Hawks (BLOWOUT) The Hawks have earned a spot in the playoffs, but they're still in a fight with Toronto for eighth spot with just two games remaining. They've lost two of three to the 76ers this year, so they'll look to even up the season series here today with a big win. Philadelphia is locked into its spot, so it's expected to now rest starters over the final two games. Atlanta is playing some of its best basketball of the season right now and I expect it to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one; lay the points with confidence, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-07-23 | Marlins v. Mets -145 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
10* Mets (ASSASSIN) At this time of year, I'm looking for value in starting pitching, and in my opinion, Tyler Megill and the home side should/could in fact be much larger favorites in this home matchup. Megill (1-0, 3.60 ERA) will face off against Edward Cabrera (0-0, 4.50.) This is the second time they've faced each other, with Megill having already beaten the Fish in Miami to kick off the 2023 campaign. The rain-out/delay from Thursday only works in the Mets favor here in my opinion. Megill is 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in three games vs. the Marlins, while Cabrera is 1-1 with a 6.63 ERA in five starts vs. the Mets; look for New York to take advantage early here and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-06-23 | Padres v. Braves -171 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show |
10* Braves (NL GOM) We're going to have an exciting series here in Atlanta, and we have a good pitching matchup to open things up between the Padres' Blake Snell, and the Braves' Spencer Strider. That said, I feel this is a contest that favors the home side. Snell enters 0-1 with a 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, lasing only four innings and allowing six hits and three runs in a 7-2 loss to the Rockies. Strider is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after scattering three hits and no runs over six innings in a 7-1 win over the Nationals. Strider was 6-1 with a 2.18 ERA at home last yera, and in my professional opinion, he could/should in fact be a much larger fav in this spot. I don't trust Snell on the road; lay the price, the play is Atlanta! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-06-23 | Blue Jays -173 v. Royals | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show | |
8* Jays (BLOWOUT SPECIAL) Because it's still so early in the season, I'm looking for value with starting pitching most of the time. And in my opinion, Kevin Gausman and the Jays could/should in fact be much larger favs here in this matchup on the road in KC vs. veteran Jordan Lyles. Guasman enters 0-1 with a 1.50 ERA after going six innings and allowing three runs and striking out seven vs. the Cardinals. Gausman excels on the road, last year he was 8-3 with a tiny 2.30 ERA away from friendly confines. Lyles is 0-1 with a 1.69 ERA after going five innings and allowing two runs with two K's in a 2-0 loss to the Twins on April 1st. Look for Gausman's road dominance to continue to open up 2023 and lay the price with confidence! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-06-23 | Red Sox -134 v. Tigers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show | |
8* Red Sox (MOUND MISMATCH) At this point of the season, I'm looking for value in starting pitching, and in my opinion, I think Chris Sale and the visiting side offer great value here. Both starters got crushed in their respective openers, but I believe Sale has everything in place for a bounce back effort. Spencer Turnbull gets the nod for the Tigers, and he was rocked for seven runs off eight hits over two innings in a loss to Tampa in his opener. Sale gave up seven runs over three innings to the Orioles. Sale though is 10-8 with a 2.96 ERA in 33 career appearances vs. Detroit. Look for Sale to get the better of his counterpart and lay the price with confidence; the play is Boston! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-05-23 | Raptors +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 93-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
10* Raptors (ASSASSIN) It's GO time for the Raptors. They're off the 120-100 win at Charlotte last night, easily covering the massive 15.5-point spread. Toronto is essentially in Playoff mode already though, as it's tied with Atlanta for eighth spot in the East, 17 games back of the Bucks. This is the start of two straight between these teams here in Boston. The Bucks have a three games lead up on Boston, which sits two games ahead of Philadelphia. The Celtics can't afford to take the foot off the gas either, but the Raptors also play with revenge here after falling 106-104 to the Celtics at home on January 21st. That however is significant to note, as the Raptors are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a SU home loss vs. an opponent. In what I expect to be a very tight and competitive affair, I'm grabbing the points; the play is Toronto! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-05-23 | Angels -148 v. Mariners | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10* Angels (DESTRUCTION) Two really good starters here, but I like the way this one sets up for Shohei Ohtani and the visiting side. Ohtani is 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Angels, while Chris Flexen is 0-0 with a 2.25 ERA for the Mariners. Flexen is 3-1 with a 3.27 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Angels, but Ohtani is 4-0 with a 1.66 ERA in six career starts vs. the Mariners. He received a no-decision in his opening start, despite striking out ten. The Angels line-up is healthy and I expect them to take advantage here; lay the price, the play is the Angels! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-05-23 | Phillies v. Yankees -156 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 4 h 17 m | Show |
10* Yankees (BLOOD-BATH) The Phillies got off the schneid to move to 1-4 with a victory here yesterday, but I like the home side to bounce back and take this three-game interleague series. Gerrit Cole is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA for the Yanks after allowing three hits over six innings, striking out 11 in a victory over the Giants. He's 5-3 with a 3.12 ERA in eight career starts vs. the Phillies. Who are still missing many key pieces in their lineup. Aaron Nola is 0-0 with a 12.27 ERA after struggling in his opener vs. the Rangers, allowing five runs over three innings. Nola is 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in three career starts vs. New York, but I say he's in over his head here in this difficult road venue. Up until last year, Nola's kryptonite has been his play on the road. I think regression is in order for Nola this season and overall we're getting great value on New York! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-04-23 | Lakers v. Jazz UNDER 236 | Top | 135-133 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* UNDER Lakers/Jazz (BLOOD-BATH) Utah won't be in the playoffs, sitting four games back of the Lakers, who are currently in seventh. Utah has covered in three straight, but it dropped the final two games of its road trip. The Lakers have won three straight and they've seen the total go "over" the number in four straight. WIth a game "at" the Clippers tomorrow, followed by home games vs. Phoenix and then the Jazz again in their finale, I say the Lakers continue to play tough defense here on the road. With the playoffs in its sites, I look for LA to double down defensively; this number is high, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
04-04-23 | Blue Jays v. Royals +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
8* Royals runline (BLOOD-BATH) Both teams are 1-3. Both really need a win here, but in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Both teams have struggled at the plate so far. I give the slight nod to Kris Bubic in this starting pitching matchup though. He was 3-13 with a 5.58 ERA last season, but he looked great in the Spring, going 1-0 with a 1.74 ERA spannning 11 innings, with 15 K's over five appearances. Yusei Kikuchi was just 6-7 with a 5.19 ERA last year. In five career starts vs. the Royals he's a pitiful 0-2 with an 8.69 ERA. The outright is possible, but the value here lies with the runline; and that's indeed the play here, KC on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-04-23 | Diamondbacks v. Padres -137 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -137 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
10* Padres (ASSASSIN) The Padres are rolling with three straight victories now. I say they keep the foot on the gas here with the superior starting pitcher on the hill. Zac Gallen had a great year last year for the D-Backs, but he got rocked on Opening Day, allowing five runs off six hits with three walks over just 4 2/3's innings. Gallen was terrible in Spring, posting a ballooned 8.27 ERA over four starts. Darvish was 16-8 with a 3.10 ERA last year. He always starts strong and I expect that to again be the case this season; all things considered, I feel we're getting unreal line value here on Darvish and the home side! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-03-23 | San Diego State +7.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-76 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 57 m | Show |
10* SDSU (ASSASSIN) Not many would have had these two in the National Championship game, but here we are. UConn has more depth and overall talent, but SDSU won't be going down quietly. I think the Aztecs have what it takes to win this one outright in fact. UConn isn't Georgia, and SDSU isn't TCU, so this National Championship Game is going to be a lot tighther than most are anticipating in my opinion. SDSU has some height and will be able to mix it up with UConn big man Sanogo in the paint. I'm not calling for an outright upset, but everything points to a real battle again here tonight; grab the points, the play is SDSU! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-03-23 | Tigers +1.5 v. Astros | 7-6 | Win | 103 | 13 h 7 m | Show | |
8* play Tigers runline. Detroit is another team that's started 0-3. The Astros looked great at times in their opening series, and pretty pedestrian in others. They're 2-2. Both starters saw limited action in 2022. Boyd was 2-0 with a 1.35 ERA, and Brown was 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA. The Tigers went down hard in that series opener, but it wasn't for a lack of trying, striking out 30 times over three games. Boyd faced the Astros once back in 2021 and he conceded just one run off six hits with one walk and four K's over seven innings in the victory. The Astros looked pedestrian at the plate in their first series collectively (.227), so that leaves the door open here for the desperate visting side. Brown is young and his sample size is still too small to properly assess. I say regression is imminent; in a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the 1.5 runs of insurance with Detroit! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-03-23 | Golden Knights v. Wild -131 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
10* Wild (GOW) No need to overthink this one. The Wild had won five of six and three in a row before a 4-1 loss at Vegas on Saturday. Note that Minnesota is 7-2 in its last nine in trying to avenge a loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. With a game at Nashville tomorrow, I say the Knights get caught "looking ahead." All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-03-23 | Phillies +1.5 v. Yankees | 1-8 | Loss | -133 | 12 h 2 m | Show | |
8* play Phillies runline. After starting the season 0-3, I think that Taijuan Walker can, at the very least, match his counterpart Nick Cortes Jr. inning for inning, and in a scenario like that, I feel the value swings to the desperate underdog visiting side. The Phillies are still missing key pieces in their hitting line-up. Taijuan Walker though is going to be the difference-maker in my opinion, as the veteran was 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA for the Mets last year. He faced the Yanks twice last season, going 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA over 11 innings. The Yanks are 2-1 after beating the Giants in their Opening series. Cortes Jr. went 12-4 with a 2.44 ERA last year. The 0-3 sweep won't be sitting well with anyone in Philadelphia and I expect a much more concerted effort here. In a contest that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I'm grabbing the visitors on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-03-23 | Cubs -117 v. Reds | 6-7 | Loss | -117 | 12 h 37 m | Show | |
8* play on the Cubs. After one series, the Cubs bullpen looks pretty good. Combined with what I believe to be the superior starter on the hill, I think the visitors offer good value here. Connor Overton was 1-0 with a 2.73 ERA in 2022 for the Reds, but he missed 110 games with injury. He was 0-2 with a 15.34 ERA over 11 2/3's innings this spring. Drew Smyly was 7-8 with a 3.47 ERA in 2022. He was 0-2 with a 6.06 ERA in five Spring starts, but note that he closed last season by conceding two or fewer runs in eight of his final nine starts to go along with a 2.28 ERA. He's also 5-0 with a 2.92 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Reds. Look for Chicago and Smyly to step up and take advantage here; the play is the Cubs! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-02-23 | Suns v. Thunder +5 | Top | 128-118 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
10* Thunder (NON-DIV. GOY) One factor I always take into account is the "revenge" factor. The last time these teams played, OKC managed the 124-120 victory over Phoenix here in mid-March. However, at times the "revenge" angle can be overblown or overrated, and for me, that's the case here for sure. I'll argue that this is the most important game of the entire season for the Thunder, who have lost two of their last three, including a 121-117 setback at Indiana last time out. The Thunder are in tenth right now, about to play in the "Play In" Tournament, sitting only 1.5 games back of the Lakers for eighth spot though. Phoenix is pretty much locked in at fourth, unable to catch Sacramento, which is 4 games ahead of it right now. Phoenix has won four straight. After this it finishes with three of its final four at home, including a "cream puff" vs. the Spurs up next. I believe Phoenix gets caught a little flat-footed here, and I expect the home side to risk life and limb to try and pull off the SU upset; that may happen, but the official call is to grab as many points as you can with OKC! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-02-23 | Phillies v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
10* UNDER Phillies/Rangers (IL TOM) A great common sense play here. Philadelphia's starting pitching and bullpen has so far been terrible over the first two games of this series, losing 11-7 and 16-3 yesterday. The Phillies are without several of their top/key sluggers as well still for a few weeks. The Rangers line-up has exploded, but for this final IL game to start the season, I believe the value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. The Phillies hand the ball to Bailey Falter, who was 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA last season. He'll be opposed by Martin Perez, who was 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA last year. Look for these quality starters to battle deep, and expect this total to stay well "under" the posted number! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-02-23 | Orioles v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 57 m | Show |
10* UNDER Orioles/Red Sox. I am rushing a bit here this morning to get my analysis done, as I am about to catch a flight. Regardless, after the first two games of this series have flown well "over" the number, I'm expecting more of a "duel" here finally in the finale. The Orioles hand the ball to Cole Irvin, who was 9-13 with a 3.98 ERA in 30 starts for the A's last year. In nine career innints vs. Boston, he has no decisions and a 2.00 ERA. The home side counters with Tanner Houck, who allowed three earned runs or fewer in 31 of his 32 outings last year, including all four starts. The value has now swung the other way as far as the total is concerned in this one, so the play is the indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
04-01-23 | Miami-FL +5.5 v. Connecticut | Top | 59-72 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 23 m | Show |
10* Miami Florida (BLOCKBUSTER) I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. I think these teams are very evenly matched, and in a contest that I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The Hurricanes are great from the line, and UConn continues to get hammered with a lot of fouls. Miami also doesn't rely on shooting the three ball, but it's still hitting 44 percent from range. The Hurricanes are also 8-3 ATS their last 11 as an underdog, with six outright victories. While I do think the outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can; grab the points, the play is Miami Florida! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-01-23 | Mavs v. Heat -115 | Top | 122-129 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
10* Heat (ASSASSIN) The Heat are in seventh spot in the East, two games ahead of ATL and TOR, but two games back of the Nets. Miami would love to move up, as it would currently face Boston in the first round. Dallas is in dire need of a victory, having fallen into the 11th spot in the West. The Kyrie Irving trade has not worked out. Luka Doncic looks frustrated. Miami actually plays with revenge here as well after falling 115-90 at the Mavs as two-point favorites back in January. This is a great opportunity for Eric Spolestra and the home side to take advantage of; lay the short points, the play is the Heat! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-01-23 | Florida Atlantic +2 v. San Diego State | Top | 71-72 | Win | 100 | 97 h 51 m | Show |
10* BLOCKBUSTER on FAU. I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. Not many brackets left right now. These two teams have consistently been under-rated and undervalued, both by their opponents and the bookmakers alike, and once again that's the case now for just one of those teams here tonight. And in my opinion, that's FAU. The Owls already proved that they can win this type of game over Tennessee (which I'll argue is better than SDSU). FAU dominates the glass, while the Aztecs are just mediocre in that department. Finally, note that FAU is a near-perfect 11-1 in games decided by five points or less. Clearly the outright win is possible, but grab the points, the play is FAU! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-01-23 | Tigers v. Rays -167 | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show | |
6* BIG-CHALK CHOKE-OUT on the Rays. Zach Eflin gets the nod here for Tampa. He was 3-5 with a 4.04 ERA in 20 games (13 starts) for Philly last year. I just can't trust Spencer Turnbull here for Detroit, who missed all of 2022 recovering from TJ surgery. Turnbull struggled with confidence during the Spring: "Definitely a little nervous," Turnbull said after his first assignment. "I felt like a baby deer out there, but it was good to be back out there." Lay the price with confidence, the play is Tampa! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-01-23 | White Sox v. Astros -116 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
10* Astros (BLOOD-BATH) I feel like the White Sox and Lucas Giolito are getting far too much respect here on the road, and that swings the value to Jose Urquidy and the undervalued home side. Urquidy was 13-8 with a 2.94 ERA in 29 appearances last year. He took the off-season really seriously and he's back in the rotation for now. he's 1-0 with a minuscule 1.84 ERA in two career outings vs. the ChiSox. Giolito is coming off his second-straight 11-9 season, pitching to a pedestrian 4.90 ERA last year. He lost both starts vs. the Astros last season, getting shelled for 15 runs off 15 hits over eight innings. Urquidy is the correct call here in my opinion; lay the short price, the play is Houston! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-31-23 | Guardians v. Mariners -155 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -155 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* Mariners (ASSASSIN) Seattle could/should easily be a much bigger fav here. I don't ever usually "flip-flop" on a team, as I had a play on Shane Bieber and the Guardians yesterday, but MLB is the one sport that for sure needs to be looked at separately and on their own accord, because of the starting pitching aspect. With that in mind, I just think Seattle should in fact be a much larger fav here. Have you even heard of Hunter Gaddis? The only reason he's getting the start here is that Triston McKenzie is injured to start the season. Gaddis was 0-2 with an 18.41 ERA last year. Robbie Ray struggled with his new team to open up last year, but he finished strong with a 12-12, 3.71 ERA record. Note that he's 2-0 with a 0.90 ERA in four career apperances vs. the Guradians, which includes three starts. I say Ray gets out to a fast start in 2023 in this favorable matchup; lay the price with confidence, the play is Seattle! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-31-23 | Flames -120 v. Canucks | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
10* Flames (EXPRESS) Calgary has won three of its last four, including a qualit 2-1 victory over the Kings at home last time out. The Flames are currently sitting in ninth spot in the East, just two games back of Winnipeg. Vancouver is in 11th. It'll need a miracle to earn a playoff spot. It had its three-game win skein snapped in a tuogh 6-5 OT loss at St. Louis last time out, and I say another letdown is in order here at home, a place where it's just 17-18-0-1. Calgary is a solid 16-11-9-2 on the road, and I expect it to step up and take advantage here; lay the price, the play is indeed on Calgary! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-31-23 | Raptors +6.5 v. 76ers | Top | 110-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
10* Raptors (ATLANTIC DIV. GOY) While I do think an outright win is possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. I think this is a great "spot" bet. The Raptors have had two nights off after a 106-92 win over the Heat. Toronto has won three straight and it's currently sitting in 9th spot in the Eastern Playoff race, in fact tied with Atlanta for eigth, and two games up on Chicago. The Raptors are playing some of their best ball of the season right now and the play with the added incentive of revenge as well after dropping the most recent matchup with Philly in a 104-101 OT setback on December 19th. Philadelphia snapped a three-game slide with a much-needed 116-108 win over the floundering Mavericks, but with a date at Milwaukee up next, it's not too hard to imagine the home side also getting caught "looking ahead" here; as stated off the top, I'm not calling for the outright upset or anything, but the official call is to grab the points with Toronto! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-30-23 | Guardians +105 v. Mariners | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 11 m | Show |
10* Guardians (ASSASSIN) The Guardians had the youngest line-up in MLB last year, but they have huge expectations this season and will be out to show that it was no fluke. Seattle also had a bounce back campaign, and expectations are also large in the Pacific Northwest this season. Of any AL team, I think the Mariners could take a big step back though, after taking a step forward last season. I think Bieber is the correct call here in this starting matchup (had a 2.88 ERA last year with 198 K's and finished 7th in Cy Young voting.) Cleveland forced New York to a Game 5 in the ALDS, and it's small ball approach counters the Mariners. I like Bieber here; the play is Cleveland! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-30-23 | Pelicans v. Nuggets OVER 231.5 | Top | 107-88 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 45 m | Show |
10* Pels/Nuggets OVER (TOTAL BLOOD-BATH) I think this one sets up well from a situational stand point to be a higher-scoring "over." Both teams have played to several "unders" of late, but that fact has only helped in driving this O/U line a few points lower than it normally would/should be. Denver has won four in a row, but it's seen the total go "under" in six straight. That's significant for us to take note here though, as the Nuggets have in fact still seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last nine after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. When they played New Orleans here back in late January, the Nugs pulled away for the 122-113 victory, and the total sailed well over the posted number of 227.5 in that one. I am expecting a similar final combind score here as well. The Pelicans are in a fight for positioning in the log-jammed Western Confernce cellar, and I expect them to match pace with the home side here throughout; this number is a little low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports | |||||||
03-30-23 | UAB -1.5 v. North Texas | Top | 61-68 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
10* UAB (NIT WINNER) It all comes down to this. A decent offensive team, vs. a decent defensive team. The old saying that "defense wins championships" will NOT be apt in this particular contest in my opinion though. The Blazers allow 70.3 points per game, but their defense finally catches a break here facing a UNT offense that averages only 64.4 PPG. Yes the Mean Green only allow 55.7, but the Blazers' are averaging 81.3 points per game. I say that it's UNT that finally runs out of momentum and gas here. Look for UAB to pull away down the stretch and lay the short points! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-30-23 | Phillies v. Rangers -125 | Top | 7-11 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
10* Rangers (INTERLEAGUE GOM) Of all the teams in the National League this year, I think the Phillies have one of the biggest potentials to take a big step back this year. A lot of things went right for Philadelphia at the end of last year, and I think it'll be difficult to duplicate that success again. But the only way the Rangers can go this season is "up." Especially with Jacob DeGrom on the hill. I like Aaron Nola and he had a bounce back season last year. He was also decent away from friendly confines. But in this opening day interleague matchup, I love DeGrom at this price, no matter what team he's playing for. Look for DeGrom to be the difference here and lay the short price; the play is Texas! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-30-23 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rays | 0-4 | Loss | -114 | 27 h 6 m | Show | |
8* play Tigers runline. After an "off" year last year, Eduardo Rodriguez will be looking to bounce back after signing a big contract with the Tigers in 2021. Shane McClanahan was 12-8 with a 2.54 ERA last year, but then he got a late shoulder injury. He's 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA in three starts vs. the Tigers. Rodriguez was 5-5 with a 4.05 ERA in 17 starts last season. How long can the Rays keep maximizing their efforts with a smaller budget? I think Tampa is a bit overpriced here, but in a game that I see being decided late, or even in extras, I am going to lay the small price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance; the play is the Tigers on the run-line option! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-30-23 | Braves v. Nationals OVER 8 | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
8* play on the OVER Braves/Nationals. This pick is based primarily around the fact that I expect the Braves to smash Corbin here. Corbin was 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA in 2022 and I say he's in for a rough start here vs. Atlanta. Max Fried gets the opening night nod for the Braves, and he was 14-7 with a 2.48 ERA last year. Note though, while he's 4-1 in games at Washington, his ERA balloons to an unsightly 5.70 in those contests (meaning that his team has provided him with ample support each time.) Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-30-23 | Giants +170 v. Yankees | 0-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
8* play on the Giants. The Yankees are FINALLY poised to "get over the hump" this year and advance to the World Series right? Maybe. But maybe not. Everything went right for the Yanks over the first 2/3's of last year, before they started to fall off. Aaron Judge was named the Captain of the team after he signed a monster contract. Cole was 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA for the anks last year. He led the league with 257 K's, but he also had an AL-worst 33 home runs served up. He's 5-1 with a 3.15 ERA vs. the Giants. Logan Webb counters for the talented Giants though. He was 11-3 in 2021, and then 15-9 with a 2.90 ERA last season. He was 4-1 with a 2.96 ERA over his final five starts last year. Opening Day can see a lot of crazy things happen. I just think Webb has the very real potential to steal this game himself; the value here lies in the underdog in my opinion, so the play is the Giants! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-29-23 | Islanders v. Capitals UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 109 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
10* UNDER Isles/Capitals. Washington has now seen the total go "over" the number in eight straight following a 4-3 loss to the Penguins last time out. That fact though has only helped the value swinging the other way finally here as far as the total is concerned in my opinion. Washington is on the outside of the playoff picture looking in right now. The Isles though are in seventh in the East right hnow. They're off a quality 5-1 win over New Jersey last time out, and I expect a similar defensive performance here as well. It's crunch time now with under two weeks to go in the regular season. I look for New York to control the tempo of this one and because of that, look for this total to stay well "under" the posted number once the final horn blares! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-28-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights UNDER 7 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -108 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
10* UNDER Oilers/Knights (TOTAL ASSASSIN) Edmonton lost 4-3 in OT to Vegas just three nights ago. Last night the Oilers managed a 5-4 win at Arizona. I believe fatigue will play a factor for this Oilers' offense with their third game in four nights. Note that Edmonton has in fact also seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Vegas has been off since that OT victory. That concluded a three-game road sweep. The Knights have won four in a row. With just under two weeks left in the regular season, we can expect fatigue to be an issue here I think for both sides. I see a much more defensive affair this time around in the rematch; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-28-23 | Utah Valley v. UAB OVER 151.5 | Top | 86-88 | Win | 100 | 38 h 19 m | Show |
10* OVER Utah Valley/UAB (OVER). This is the semi-finals of the NIT. Utah Valley got by Cincinnati 74-68 on Wednesday to advance. Utah Valley's strength is its depth, as it has four players averaging double figures in scoring. Overall it averages 76.9 PPG. The Blazers reached this point by beating Vanderbilt. UAB plays at an even faster pace though and averages 81.4 PPG. These teams have been playing to lower-scoring games throughout the playoffs, but that fact has only helped in driving today's total a few points lower than it normally would/should be; they play is indeed on the OVER. AAA Sports | |||||||
03-28-23 | Celtics v. Wizards +11.5 | Top | 111-130 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
10* Wizards (REVENGE BOB) Boston has won three straight, both SU and ATS. Note though that the Celtics are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after three or more straight SU/ATS victories in a row. With a much more high-profile and important game at Milwaukee up next on Thursday, this also sets up as a potential "look-ahead" spot for the visitors as well. Washington does indeed play with revenge after falling 130-121 to the Celtics as a 7.5-point dog in Boston back in November. Note though that the Wizards are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss against an opponent. I say the hungry home side sneaks in under the radar here, catches the Celtics at a really good time here, and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to this one being a lot closer in the end than what this spread is suggesting; grab as many points as you can, the play is the Wizards! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-27-23 | 76ers +6.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
10* 76ers (ASSASSIN) After a win at Chicago to open up this road trip, the 76ers have now lost back-to-back West coast contests, most recently falling 125-105 to a desperate Phoenix team. Yes, Philly just beat Denver 126-119 at home back in January, but I'm not reading too much into the revenge factor. For me, this particular play is a good situational one, as I feel that Philly is the much "hungrier" side here after back-to-back poor efforts. I'm expecting a battle until the final horn, so grab the points, the play is Philadelphia! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-27-23 | Canadiens v. Sabres -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
10* Sabres PUCKLINE (EAST-CONF GOW) I'm expecting a blowout here. Montreal has been trading wins and losses over its last five games, and after an 8-2 blowout home win over Columbus last time out, I'm expecting this pattern to continue in this difficult road venue. As for the Sabres, they've broken a string of poor play with back-to-back quality victories, most recently beating New Jersey 5-4, and the Islanders on the road by a score of 2-0. Look for the Sabres to keep the pedal to the metal here with just under two weeks to go in the regular season. I look for Buffalo to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion; the play is the SABRES on the PUCKLINE option! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-26-23 | Wizards +7 v. Raptors | Top | 104-114 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
10* Wizards (ASSASSIN) Both teams really need a win here. Washington is in 11th spot, three games back of No. 9 Toronto. After a relatively simple 118-97 win over Detroit though, I think that the Raptors will have their hands full with this revenge-minded Washington side, which fell 116-109 in OT at home as a 2.5-point favorite in early March. Note that the Wizards are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Washington snapped a four-game slide with a big 136-124 win over San Antonio last time out, and I think the Wizards throw their best shot at the Raptors today as well; grab the points, the play is Washington! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-26-23 | Miami-FL +4.5 v. Texas | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 33 h 19 m | Show |
10* Miami Florida (ELITE 8 GOY) I am going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. Both teams ahve been great. I'd argue though that Texas' path to this point has been the easier one, with wins over Colgate, Penn State and Xavier. Miami has had Drake, Indiana and Houston. Dylan Disu is a question mark in this one for Texas and if he does play, he'll be less than 100%. The Longhorns are deep, but it's still a concern. I feel that Miami has been undervalued and kind of overlooked throughout this tournament, and I believe that's once again the case here; while the outright win is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the Hurricanes! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-26-23 | Creighton v. San Diego State OVER 132.5 | Top | 56-57 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
10* OVER Creighton/SDSU (TOP TOTAL) I am going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. SDSUN is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS so far in the postseason this year. With the big upset win over Alabama, the Aztecs have also seen the total go "under" in six straight. This fact though has only helped in pushing this Elite 8 total a few points lower than it should be in my opinion. Creighton exploded for an 86-75 win and cover over Princeton in its last outing, and the Bluejays have now posted 171 combined points over their last two games. I expect a faster-paced affair here finally; this number is low, the play is indeed on the "over!" AAA Sports | |||||||
03-25-23 | 76ers v. Suns +1.5 | Top | 105-125 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
10* Suns (ASSASSIN) The Suns were playing really well with Kevin Durant, but then the superstar got injured and now Phoenix has been struggling ever since. But I say their current slide ends here tonight in this favorable spot. Phoenix has lost six of its last seven, including three in a row. They've also lost seven straight ATS. The Suns also play with revenge here after falling 100-88 at Philly earlier in the sesaon, and note that Phoenix is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The 76ers played and lost just last night in Golden State, and I say that fatigue plays a factor in the outcome of this one as well; for all the reasons listed above, the play is Phoenix! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-25-23 | Connecticut v. Gonzaga UNDER 154 | Top | 82-54 | Win | 100 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
10* UNDER UConn/Gonzaga (ELITE 8 TOY) I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. Both teams have been playing to several high-scoring affairs, but I believe this Elite 8 game finally sets up as more of a defensive one. This is a really high total for an Elite 8 game. In fact, this is the highest total that has been attached to a UConn game since January 25th at Xavier. UConn doesn't play at a fast pace either, ranked 211st in tempo. Both teams have plenty of big men and I'm expecting plenty of "half-court sets" while on offense. When you take all of these factors into account, the play is indeed on the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
03-25-23 | Florida Atlantic +2.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 79-76 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
10* FAU (ASSASSIN) I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. FAU averages 79.3 PPG, while allowing only 65.7. K-State averages 75.8 PPG, while allowing 68.7. The Owls have consistently been overrated, and while I think that Wildcats' guard Markquis Nowell is fantastic, this defense is much tighter than MSU's and I have a hard time seeing Kansas State duplicating its previous performance; I'm grabbing the points in this one, the play is FAU! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-24-23 | Princeton v. Creighton -9.5 | Top | 75-86 | Win | 100 | 104 h 30 m | Show |
10* Creighton (SWEET 16 GOY) Princeton has exceeded expectations, but I say the Cinderella story comes to an end here today. The Tigers average 76 PPG, while allowing 68.6. Creighton though is battle-tested and more consistent on both ends of the court in my opinion, averaging 76.8 PPG, while allowing 67.9. The Tigers have become a popular pick with bettors, with the majority of the early bets placed on Princeton. While most go one way though, we're going to go the other; a great contrarian Sweet 16 Game of the Year on Creighton! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-24-23 | Miami-FL v. Houston -7.5 | Top | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 35 m | Show |
10* Houston (ASSASSIN) I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. I think No. 1 seed Houston will pull away down the stretch for a comfortable win and cover vs. No. 5 Miami. Miami has an efficient offense, but this Houston defense is on an entirely different level. Houston has a rebounding advantage over Miami as well, and the Hurricanes defense is just mediocre. Houston has the advantage in every metric and we can expect that to translate into a solid cover; the play is Houston! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-24-23 | Pacers v. Celtics UNDER 237.5 | Top | 95-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
10* UNDER Pacers/Celtics (EAST-CONF TOM) The last time these teams played back on February 23rd, Boston won 142-138 in OT. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a much tighter affair this time around. Boston has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, but note that the Celtics have seen the total go "under" the number in five of their last six after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Boston also returns home from a six-game road trip, and I believe that'll have an affect on the final combined score as well. Indiana is just 14-33 on the road despite a rare 118-114 victory as a nine-point dog at Toronto in its last game. With Tyrese Haliburton still a question mark for Indiana, I believe we're in store for a much more defensive affair than what this O/U line is suggesting; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
03-24-23 | Islanders -190 v. Blue Jackets | 4-5 | Loss | -190 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
6* Islanders (DESTRUCTION) I think the Isles are well worth the price of admission in this spot. New York has won three in a row and has had two nights off after destroying the Leafs 7-2. With a game tomorrow night at home vs. Buffalo, New York won't leave anything to chance here. Columbus had lost three straight and seven of eight before a rare 7-6 OT win in the nation's capital in its latest. Can anyone say "letdown" spot?! With New York fighting for a better playoff spot, let's lay the price with confidence; the play is the Islanders! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-24-23 | San Diego State v. Alabama -7.5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
10* ALABAMA FIRST HALF (BLOWOUT) I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. San Diego has gotten this far because of its great defense, but I have a hard time seeing it slowing down this incredibly deep Alabama offense, with four players averaging double-figures. But the thing is, Alabama's defense is even better than the Aztecs is. I look for the TIDE to go up early and keep the foot on the gas going into the break; this is a play on ALABAMA in the FIRST HALF, but if you don't have a FIRST HALF line available, I still like the TIDE against-the-spread for the entire game as well! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-23-23 | Thunder v. Clippers -148 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 16 h 36 m | Show |
10* Clippers MONEYLINE (BLOWOUT) I'm going to suggest bypassing the spread option, and just playing the home side on the moneyline. The Clippers are 5-2 in their last seven, but they're coming off a 101-100 loss here to the Thunder on Tuesday as 6.5-point favorites. Note that LA is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. But as I mentioned, we're not even looking for an ATS victory today, we just need LA to win this game. The Thunder have won four of their last five and I believe a letdown is now finally imminent, especially as the also get caught "looking ahead" to their game here tomorrow night vs. the Lakers; lay the price, the play is LA! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-23-23 | Florida Atlantic v. Tennessee OVER 131.5 | Top | 62-55 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 11 m | Show |
10* OVER FAU/Tennessee (SWEET 16 TOY) Two really good defensive teams here that play at methodical paces, but I still think this O/U line is way too low. FAU is 33-3 this year, including 11-3 on the road. After playing to four straight post-season "unders," the Owls finally played to an "over" in their Round of 32 win over FDU by a score of 78-70. I think FAU keeps the offensive momentum rolling here. The 70 points allowed though is a concern if you're an Owls bettor though. Tennessee has seen the first two games of its tournament go "under" the number, including in its 65-52 victory over Duke last time out, but that fact has only helped in driving today's total a few points lower than it normally would/should be in my opinion. With a few days off to rest between rounds, expect these offenses to benefit; this number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports | |||||||
03-23-23 | Michigan State -1.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 93-98 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
10* Michigan State (ASSASSIN) I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the NCAA Tournament. With a spread like this, the oddsmakers feel these teams are very evenly matched. The Spartans are slightly better offensively, while the Wildcats are slightly better defensively. I like Tom Izzo's experience though and I also think MSU's shooting from range will be a difference-maker. The Spartans only hit 2 of 16 three-pointers in their win over Marquette, but still managed a nine-point victory. I don't expect them to shoot that poorly again here; lay the short points, the play is Michigan State! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-22-23 | Blazers +4 v. Jazz | Top | 127-115 | Win | 100 | 14 h 18 m | Show |
10* Blazers (ASSASSIN) A complete contrarian play here. A vast majority of the bets and money is on Utah, but that fact has helped in driving this spread a few points too high in my opinion. Utah has somehow won four of its last five SU and it's also gone 6-0 ATS in its last six. The Jazz have just beaten the Celtics and Kings at home, but with Milwaukee coming to town on Friday, this does indeed now set up as a "look ahead" spot as well for Utah. No such luxury for Portland, which enters desperate after six straight losses. I think Utah's surge comes to an end here and Portland, at the very least, takes this one right down to the wire; while the outright win isn't out of the question, let's grab the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-22-23 | Pacers v. Raptors -8 | Top | 118-114 | Loss | -114 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* Raptors (EXPRESS) The Raptors are ninth in the East, so are part of the Play In Tournament at the moment. Indiana is currently 12th. Toronto plays with double revenge here as the Pacers have won both earlier meetings so far this season. Here's the perfect opportunity to get that double revenge, as the Pacers continue their four-game road trip after a loss at Charlotte on Monday. The Pacers actually had an 18-point second-quarter lead over Charlotte, but they lost 115-109 in the end. Indiana was super sloppy with the ball, turning it over 21 times. Charlotte's bench outscored Indiana's bench 45-18. Indiana was without Tyrese Haliburton for that one and he'll also be out for this one against Toronto (Haliburton is Indiana's number 1 guy, averaging 20.8 points and 10.4 assists per game.) Indiana averages 115.8 points per game and allows 118.3. Toronto averages 112.9 points per game, while allowing 112.1. Toronto has won seven in a row at home. It plays with double revenge. It catches the Pacers without their top player in the line-up. I smell a blowout here North of the border; lay the points, the play is Toronto! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-21-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars -152 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -152 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
10* Stars (WEST-CONF GOW) I think the home side is well worth the price of admission in this spot. The bottom line is that I still think the Kraken are getting too much respect from oddsmakers, after their surprising first half record. Especially on the road. But that mystique has worn off since the All Star game. Dallas is 17-9-6-2 at home. They just snapped a two-game slide with a 6-5 OT win at Calgary. They beat Seattle 5-2 in the last matchup a week ago, and I'm expecting a similar beatdown here as well on their own ice; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Stars! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-21-23 | Cavs v. Nets +3 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* Nets (ASSASSIN) After three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, I like the Nets to dig deep and bounce back here. Note that Brooklyn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Cleveland has won three of it slast four. It's coming off two straight home victories. This is the opener of two straight here between these clubs in Brooklyn, and I say the more desperate home side doubles down and, at the very least, takes this one right down to the wire. The Nets had a winning record before KD and Kyrie left and it'll now be a struggle to maintain that position, but I love the way this one sets up for them here at home tonight; grab the points, the play is the Nets! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-21-23 | North Texas v. Oklahoma State -5 | Top | 65-59 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
10* Oklahoma State (NIT) Anyone who had Oklahoma State vs. Eastern Washington can't be feeling too great after the way that last game ended for the Cowboys. OKS was an 11.5-point favorite and won by 11 after the Eagles hit a meaningless 3-pointer with time winding off the clock. But where the Cowboys failed ATS last time out, I fully expect them to pull away for a comfortable cover with this more manageable spread. OKS averages 69.5 PPG, while allowing 66.8. North Texas averages 63.7 PPG, while allowing only 55.4. The problem here for UNT though is now it runs in to perhaps an even better defense than its own. The level of competition simply can't be compared between these two; I'm expecting a blowout, so lay the points with Oklahoma State! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-20-23 | Wolves +8.5 v. Knicks | Top | 140-134 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
10* Wolves (ASSASSIN) Minnesota has lost three straight. Note that the Wolves are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after three or more SU losses in a row. Minnesota plays with revenge after falling 120-107 at home to the Knicks as a 2.5-point favorite back in November. Note that the Wolves are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Knicks have won three straight, both SU and ATS, but note that New York is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. With an upcoming difficult two-game road trip at Miami and Orlando up next, expect the Knicks to take the foot off the gas in the second half. While an outright win is entirely possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-20-23 | Senators +1.5 v. Penguins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
10* Senators PUCKLINE (GOW) Both teams are really struggling. Pittsburgh has lost three straight, while Ottawa has lost five in a row. With a two-game road trip at Colorado and Dallas up next, I say the Pens once again get caught flat-footed here and "look ahead" to those contests. Ottawa is 7-2 in its last nine after five or more straight losses in a row. The Sens also play with the added incentive of revenge here after falling 4-1 to Pittsburgh back on January 20th. I expect this game to be decided late, or even in extra time, so I'm laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance; the play is Ottawa on the puckline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-20-23 | Rice +7 v. Southern Utah | Top | 79-81 | Win | 100 | 7 h 25 m | Show |
10* Rice (CBI GOW) Rice may have stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but it looked great in its 84-78 win over Duquesne to open this tournament. I say the Owls now build off that performance and, at the very least, give the Southern Utah Thunderbirds everything they can handle. Southern Utah has been playing well, having won four of its last five. They also looked impressive in their opening 72-50 win over Northern Alabama. These team's numbers are similar and in a contest that I see being decided by whichever has the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is Rice! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-19-23 | Fairleigh Dickinson v. Florida Atlantic OVER 149 | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
10* OVER Fairleigh Dickinson/FAU (ULTIMATE) FAU is now 32-3, and it's a 13.5-point favorite in this one. Fairleigh Dickinson finished 21-15. Over its past ten games FAU has averaged 2.3 points more per game than its season average. Note that together these two teams combined for 156 points per game, which is at least five points higher than this total. I'm finally expecting a faster-paced game and because of that, the play is the "over"! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-19-23 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Stetson -130 | Top | 87-83 | Loss | -130 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
10* Stetson MONEY LINE (CBI TOURNEY GOY) I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the College basketball tournaments. This is Stetson's second-ever post-season tournament invite ever. Milwaukee is 6-7 on the road, and has an 0-1 record in neutral site games this year. Stetson is 7-8 on the road, and 1-1 in neutral site affairs. Milwaukee gave up 93 points in it last loss to Cleveland State. Stetson may have a losing SU record on the road, but it's 10-7 ATS. It's also really effective at covering the three-ball, which is the only weapon that this Milwaukee offense can lean on; all in all, lay the points and expect a blowout! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-19-23 | Michigan State v. Marquette OVER 140 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
10* OVER MSU/Marquette (ASSASSIN) I am going to be very succinct with my analysis throughout the College Basketball Tournaments. Michigan State averages 70.6 PPG, while allowing 67.4. Marquette averages 81 PPG, while allowing 71.3. Expect fatigue to play a key part in breaking down the defensive play for each side, and expect this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-19-23 | Nuggets v. Nets +1.5 | Top | 108-102 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
10* Nets (ASSASSIN) Denver has struggled since the All-Star break. I don't see it being able to muster much of an offensive attack here after falling 116-110 at the Knicks just last night. The Nuggets have now dropped five of their last six. Brooklyn had won five of six before dropping two in a row. With two nights off to prepare for this one though, I love how this one sets up for the home side. While I do think an outright victory is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Brooklyn! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-19-23 | Bruins v. Sabres +1.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -150 | 4 h 8 m | Show |
10* Sabres PUCKLINE (DESTRUCTION) I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. I expect Boston to finally have a bit of a letdown after yesterday's come from behind 5-2 win at the Wild. The Bruins are the best team in the NHL, but with a night off before a favorable home matchup vs. the Senators, this also sets up as a look-ahead position. Buffalo is desperate to get back into the winner's circle after going just 2-8 in its last ten. Not surprisingly, it plays with revenge here after a humbling 7-1 defeat to the Bruins in Boston at the start of March. I expect Buffalo to risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes today, and because of that, the play is the Sabres on the puckline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
03-18-23 | Maryland v. Alabama OVER 143 | 51-73 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
9* OVER Maryland/Alabama (TOTAL BAIL-OUT) I'm going to be very succinct with my analysis during the NCAA Tournament. Alabama won in the first round of the tournament without its star player Brandon Miller even scoring. The Tide have a ton of momentum, having won eight of their last nine games. Maryland comes in with some momentum of its own after coming back against WVU after being down by double-digits early. The fact that these teams are playing their second game in three days is going to have a detrimental aspect to their defensive play in my opinion; this number is now a little low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports |
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