Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-28-21 | Oregon v. USC OVER 138.5 | Top | 68-82 | Win | 100 | 78 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Oregon has gone Over in eight straight games. We like them to make it 10 against USC in the Sweet 16. Now the last time a Ducks’ game stayed Under, it was against USC. That regular season matchup saw them lose 72-58 in LA. Though they made 7 of 17 three-point attempts, the Ducks were an unsightly 16 of 40 on two-point attempts. That percentage will certainly improve in Sunday’s rematch, even though USC has done an excellent job on defense so far in the Tournament and really all season. With the teams combining for 130 in the first meeting, we only a handful more to send this one Over. Considering they combined to go just 13 of 22 from the charity stripe last month, we should get some more points there in this one. You also can’t forget that Oregon just dropped 95 points on Iowa in their last game. USC has scored 72 and 85 in their two games and shot 57.1% against Kansas. Oregon shot 55% vs. Iowa. Both USC opponents have shot worse than 30%. That can’t continue. The Over is 6-1-1 for USC following a SU win. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-28-21 | UCLA v. Alabama OVER 145.5 | Top | 88-78 | Win | 100 | 75 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER UCLA had to win three times last weekend. This first one wasn’t easy as they needed overtime to get by Michigan State in the “First Four.” But the Bruins then looked dominant against 6-seed BYU and 14-seed Abilene Christian. Defense was the key against Abilene Christian as only 44 points were allowed. But that was a 14-seed. Now UCLA faces Alabama, who just hung 96 points on Maryland in its Round of 32 game. The Crimson Tide are going for just the second Elite Eight appearance in program history. Nate Oats won’t ever be confused for Nick Saban but the Tide’s second year coach has done a great job at Tuscaloosa. Bama basically averages 80 points per game, a number they have matched or exceeded in four of their last six games. They like to play fast. UCLA does not, but it remains to be seen if they can control the tempo. UCLA does shoot the three well (37%) and Bama allowed Maryland to shoot 53% overall (37% from three). The Terps got to 77 points even though they attempted only seven free throws and made just three. The Over is 8-1 for Alabama following a game where they scored 90 or more points. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-28-21 | Devils v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER New Jersey was blanked (4-0) in Washington Friday night. Seven of their last nine games have seen five or less total goals scored. The exceptions were the two games before the shutout loss on Friday. Now the Devils head to Boston to face a Bruins team that’s coming off a 3-2 win over Buffalo last night. It wasn’t easy for the B’s on Saturday, even though the Sabres are on the longest losing streak of the shootout era. Boston needed two goals in the third period to pull out the “W” and we don’t see an abundance of goals coming from their end tonight either. The Under is 8-1 in their last nine games. Not to be outdone, the Under is 7-2 in the Devils’ last nine games. All signs point to another Under here as that particular wager has gone 14-4-3 the L21 meetings and 4-0 the last four here in Beantown. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
03-28-21 | Ducks v. Blues -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 9* on ST. LOUIS (-1.5) The top four teams in each division make the playoffs this year. Out in the West, you’ve got to figure Vegas, Colorado and Minnesota are locks. Somebody has to grab the 4th spot though and if St. Louis wants to be that team, then they need to turn things around ASAP. The Blues have lost three in a row coming into today and 8 of 10. Three of those losses came after regulation, but a turnaround is needed. The most embarrassing loss of this stretch came Friday when they lost 4-1 at home to last place Anaheim. The Ducks had lost seven of eight themselves going into that one and hadn’t experienced a regulation victory since February 11th! Anyway, look for the Blues to “repay” the Ducks here on Sunday as there have been only two times this year where Anaheim has won back to back games. They’ve yet to beat the same team twice in a row. We look for this to be a lopsided affair, so be sure to play St. Louis on the puck line (-1.5). The Ducks have scored the second fewest number of goals in the league. Play on ST. LOUIS -1.5 AAA | |||||||
03-28-21 | Florida State +2.5 v. Michigan | Top | 58-76 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FSU Nine Big Ten teams made the NCAA Tournament. Eight bowed out in the first two rounds. The only one to make the Sweet 16 is top seed Michigan, who will play 4-seed Florida State. The Seminoles have looked pretty good so far in their two games, shooting 52% overall while holding the opposition right around 33%.. They never trailed against UNC Greensboro and were only briefly behind Colorado (early in the first half). All season long, the ‘Noles have defended well, allowing a 39.3 overall FG% which includes 32.3% from three. Michigan is a top 20 offense in FG% and top 10 in efficiency, but they’ll be missing second leading scorer Isaiah Livers and that is a significant loss. It’s not as if FSU isn’t impressive at the offensive end in its own right. They score 78 points per game, which is more than the Wolverines average for the year. Michigan trailed much of the way against LSU, a team with size and length similar to Florida State. FSU is better than LSU. Michigan doesn’t force many turnovers and that’s how you beat the Seminoles. The loss of Livers will loom large. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA | |||||||
03-28-21 | Suns -6 v. Hornets | Top | 101-97 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHOENIX We’re all out of answers when it comes to the question of “how” the Hornets are in 4th place in the East. Picked to finish near the bottom of the conference, Charlotte has won three straight to get to 23-21. They’ve beaten San Antonio, Houston and Miami during the win streak, but now things get much harder when Phoenix comes to town. The Suns have been great this year. They are second in the West, ahead of the Clippers and Lakers, and have lost only three times in the last month while winning 10. We really like the Suns to “stick it” to the Hornets this afternoon. Even though they didn’t make a basket in the final 3:50 Friday, Phoenix still was able to win vs. Toronto. Remember that Charlotte doesn’t have LaMelo Bell (injured), which is a huge loss. It’s unlikely Malik Monk is going to offer a repeat of his 32-point performance we saw Friday vs. Miami. The Hornets are just 7-13 SU/ATS vs. .500 or better teams. The Suns are 15-4 SU/ATS. Play on PHOENIX AAA | |||||||
03-28-21 | Stipe Miocic v. Francis Ngannou -132 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 372 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NGANNOU There’s been a fair amount of debate over whether or not Stipe Miocic, the current UFC Heavyweight Champion, is the greatest HW of all-time. The oddsmakers don’t seem to be on board as Miocic is the underdog for this title fight against Francis Ngannou at UFC 260. Miocic has a decision victory over Ngannou back in 2018. Since that time the champ has lost and regained his title in a trilogy of fights with Daniel Cormier. That trilogy took basically three years to complete. Ngannou has been no more active since losing the first time to Miocic. He lost again in his next fight (to Derrick Lewis) but then stormed back to win four in a row, positioning himself as the new #1 contender. Ngannou’s striking is as good as anyone in the promotion, let alone the division. He can end this fight at any time with one punch. None of his last four fights have gone longer than 71 seconds. The key is whether or not he’s improved enough defensively to thwart Miocic’s takedown ability. We’ll take a leap of faith that he has and that Miocic’s wrestling isn’t as strong as it was in 2018. Play on NGANNOU AAA | |||||||
03-27-21 | 76ers v. Clippers -3 | Top | 112-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA CLIPPERS The Sixers lead the Eastern Conference with a 32-13 overall record, however both the Nets and Bucks are hot on their heels (within 2.5 games). The Clippers’ 30-16 overall record has them third in the Western Conference and four games back of first place Utah. Both teams come into Saturday having won four in a row. After a furious rally to beat Atlanta to start the week, LA swept two games in San Antonio, first using an awesome offensive display (scored 134 in the first game) then an awesome defensive display (allowed 85 in the second game). That makes it three double digit wins in the last four games. Philly has been fortunate to face Golden State (no Curry) and the Lakers (no LeBron or Anthony Davis) on their current road trip. They are still without Joel Embiid. The Clippers may not have Kawhi Leonard tonight, but we still like them at home. They ended up not having Leonard when we took them Thursday in San Antonio. Paul George showed he can carry the load as he had 24 points and 13 rebounds. The Sixers are a dominant home team, but only 13-9 on the road and that’s with three straight wins. Play on LA CLIPPERS. AAA | |||||||
03-27-21 | Syracuse +6.5 v. Houston | Top | 46-62 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SYRACUSE The last six games have seen Syracuse go 5-1 and the only loss was by three. They are 6-0 ATS in those six games. Now they have a Sweet 16 appointment with Houston, a team on a nine-game win streak. But the Cougars almost didn’t get here as they barely got by Rutgers in the second round. Syracuse also won its Round of 32 game by only three points, but they were in better control throughout. Led by Buddy Boeheim (Jim’s son) averaging 28 points his last four games, the Orange offense has been lights out. Boeheim is shooting 60% those last four games and 55% from three-point range. In the NCAA Tournament, Syracuse has shot 55.3% and 51.9%. But their zone defense has been just as important to the success as unfamiliar opponents aren’t used to facing it. Expect Houston to struggle to make shots against the zone. They shot 37% against Rutgers and that’s why they were down nine with five minutes to go. In their last four wins, Syracuse has allowed the following field goal percentages: 33.9, 36.2, 35.8, 37.1. Tough to lose when your opponents aren’t shooting well. Syracuse at least covers and we give them a shot at winning as well. Play on SYRACUSE AAA | |||||||
03-27-21 | Bulls v. Spurs OVER 223 | Top | 104-120 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Chicago is 7-1 Under in its last eight games and in five of those they failed to score more than 100 points. But they were active at the trade deadline, making several moves, the most notable of which brought Nikola Vucevic over from Orlando. Paired with Zach LaVine, who is already averaging 28.2 points/game, the Bulls should now be a lot more dynamic offensively. Honestly, it’s not that they are bad at that end of the floor. For the season, they are averaging 113.0 points/game. They average more on the road (117.9) and overall Bulls’ road games average 232.6 points/game. It should be noted all four sub-100 point performances over the L8 games occurred at home. San Antonio is coming off an awful shooting game where they made just 40.2 percent of their field goals. They held the Clippers to 38.2%, but it wasn’t enough as they went down for a fourth straight time, 98-85. We get the sense that both teams are ready to break out of their “mini offensive slumps.” Over the last three seasons, the Spurs are 12-4 Over when they are on a losing streak of three or more games. Thursday was a season-low in points for them. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-27-21 | Villanova v. Baylor -7.5 | Top | 51-62 | Win | 100 | 49 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BAYLOR Baylor seems to be over his hangover from a 3-week (COVID-19) layoff, no? The Bears have beaten Hartford and Wisconsin pretty handily to get here and that win over Wisconsin was especially impressive. They basically led the whole way and were up by 18 at one point. They’ve shot the three well in both games, turned it over just four times vs. the Badgers and have played great defense throughout (59 points/game allowed). Villanova has only had to beat a 12 and a 13-seed to get here. They’ve been much better than people thought they’d be, but don’t forget Colin Gillespie is out. Our guess is this is where they miss their star point guard. The fact that the Wildcats play a similar style on offense compared to Wisconsin means Baylor won’t have to change the gameplan much. It’s all about forcing the opponent into taking jump shots and turning the ball over. Given ‘Nova doesn’t have Gillespie, turnovers are likely to be an issue in this one. By the way, Baylor is the best three-point shooting team in the country. Play on BAYLOR AAA | |||||||
03-26-21 | Hawks v. Warriors UNDER 220.5 | Top | 124-108 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Without Steph Curry, the Warriors look to be in major trouble. While they didn’t have much difficulty scoring last night, they were blown out 141-119 by the Kings. It was Golden State’s third straight loss. All three losses have come with Curry out of the lineup. Draymond Green, reportedly feeling the effects of a COVID-19 shot, sat yesterday as well. The self-professed “greatest defender of all time” partly explains the Warriors giving up 141 last night. The team is hopeful that Green will play tonight as they host Atlanta, who has never played in this building since it opened for the start of last season. The Hawks are in the middle of an eight-game road trip that has gone a bit sideways. After they blew all of a 22-point lead against the Clippers on Monday and lost 119-110, they then lost 110-108 to Sacramento. Before those losses, they’d won the first eight games for interim coach Nate McMillan. Before giving up 141 last night, Golden State was on a 4-0 Under run. We think they’ll struggle to score tonight without Curry, but the defense should improve. Atlanta hasn’t topped 110 in any of its last three games and is 4-0 Under off its last four ATS losses. Golden State is 7-0 Under in the second game of a back to back. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
03-26-21 | Sharks +104 v. Coyotes | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN JOSE Earlier in the week, we saw the Coyotes do something that no one else has been able to do recently and that’s beat the Avalanche. The 5-4 win did require a shootout, but beating the Avs in any fashion right now is pretty darn impressive. The ‘Yotes get to stay at home this weekend as San Jose comes to town. The Sharks just took two from the Kings and they are sitting in second to last place in the division right now. They are three points behind Arizona, but have a slightly better goal differential (-17 vs. -18). Arizona deserves credit for beating Colorado, but they’d lost six of seven before that win and the other win was against Anaheim. One regulation win in eight games is pretty bad and with depth concern between the pipes, we see this team being in trouble. San Jose goalie Martin Jones is coming off two straight 40+ save efforts. The Sharks have won five of their last six against teams that have losing records. Play on SAN JOSE AAA | |||||||
03-26-21 | Pacers v. Mavs -4.5 | Top | 109-94 | Loss | -102 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS Dallas has looked good of late in winning 14 of their last 19 contests. We had them Wednesday as they took out Minnesota 128-108. That was an easy cover as 8.5-point favorites and this should be as well as the Mavs are laying a short number at home to Indiana. The Pacers have struggled recently, losing 9 of 14 and they are an ugly 3-10-1 ATS in those games. They did beat Detroit 116-111 on Wednesday, but that is not something to brag about. They failed to cover the 7.5 point spread in that one. It’s difficult to see the Pacers keeping up with the Mavs tonight. Dallas has scored 260 points in its last two games. They are one blown lead in Portland away from coming into this game on a four-game win streak. Kristaps Porzingis looked dominant vs. the Timberwolves and Luka Doncic had another triple double. Indiana has covered only 3 of the last 14 times it’s been an underdog. Dallas is 5-1 ATS its last six home games. Play on DALLAS AAA | |||||||
03-25-21 | Clippers -6 v. Spurs | Top | 98-85 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAC The Clippers have strung together three straight victories, the last one coming last night here at the Alamo. They crushed the Spurs 134-101, a game in which they never trailed and were up 12 after the first quarter. It was LA’s 11th win of the season by 20 points or more. With the Lakers reeling right now, there is no excuse for the Clippers to finish any worse than third in the Western Conference and on paper, you’d probably like them over the top two teams (Utah, Phoenix) come playoff time. The Spurs are headed in the opposite direction as last night was their third straight loss. A 24-hour turnaround isn’t going to allow for them to make things much better tonight. Making things even worse is the fact the Clippers are a perfect 7-0 against the spread in the second night of a back to back. They’ve won those seven games this season by an average of 16.4 points per game. Six Clippers scored at least 13 points in last night’s win and the team shot 55% overall. We see no reason why this shouldn’t be another easy win for the road team. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA | |||||||
03-25-21 | Rangers v. Flyers +107 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILLY Everyone remembers what happened to the Flyers the last time they played the Rangers. They were humiliated 9-0 in one of the worst defeats in franchise history. Few probably remember that Philly went out and won their next game (4-3 over the Islanders) as since then, it’s been three more losses. So now the Flyers are sitting fifth in the East Division, but they are actually two points ahead of the Rangers. Take away that one 9-0 game last week and the respective goal differentials look a lot similar. Just two points back of Boston for the fourth playoff spot, there is no reason for the Flyers to hang their heads now. We think they are going to come out with quite the inspired effort Thursday. While the Rangers did score five goals in their last game, that win came against the terrible Sabres and they are 1-6 after the previous seven times they scored five or more times in a game. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA | |||||||
03-24-21 | Mavs -8 v. Wolves | Top | 128-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS Dallas has been inconsistent this year, but they have what we consider “a favorable stretch” over the next week or so. A 40-point win in Portland on Sunday showed what the Mavs are capable of doing. They should have won twice in Portland over the weekend, but blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead on Friday and lost 125-119. Had they held on there, they’d be on a three-game win streak coming into this game at Minnesota. The Timberwolves are bad. They have the worst straight up record in the league at 10-33. They’ve lost two in a row and 13 of 16. Karl-Anthony Towns being bothered by a wrist injury doesn’t help matters. Nor does facing Dallas, who is 28-14 ATS at Minnesota their previous 42 visits. The Mavericks are 13-5 overall since Feb 6th with Luka Doncic playing very well of late. Already averaging career highs in both points and assists this season, Doncic has gone for 39 points, 7.3 points and 7.3 assists over his last three games. We look for a big win by the road team. Play on DALLAS AAA | |||||||
03-24-21 | Cavs v. Bulls -5.5 | Top | 103-94 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO Chicago is a team desperate to make the playoffs this season. In the Eastern Conference, that shouldn’t be that difficult but here we are on March 24th and the Bulls are four games below .500. That’s still good enough for ninth place, which would mean being involved in the play-in scenario, but the Bulls would certainly like to get themselves on “steadier ground” over the next month. Beating a sorry team like Cleveland is imperative in achieving that. The Cavaliers are actually better, record-wise, than three teams in the East. But they have the worst point differential in the entire league. On the road, the Cavs have been terrible with a 5-15 record (SU and ATS) and they’re getting outscored by an average of 13.5 points per game. The Bulls have not yet had a chance to play Cleveland this year and hosting them should mean a very easy win. It was a 25-point home loss on Monday, but that was to the Jazz. Cleveland also lost at home Monday, by 14 to Sacramento. This spread should be much higher considering the Bulls are 17-5 ATS when facing losing teams. Play on CHICAGO AAA | |||||||
03-24-21 | Flames -170 v. Senators | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -170 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CALGARY Monday’s 2-1 loss here in Ottawa should be considered unforgivable from the Flames’ perspective. The Senators were without their top three goaltenders, yet held Calgary to just one goal. Ottawa is by far the worst defensive side in the league as they’ve allowed 131 goals on the season, which is 20 more than the next worst team. Equally unforgivable as the loss Monday is the fact the Flames have now lost four of the six meetings with the Senators this season. For Ottawa, those four wins account for more than one-third of their total wins this season. It’s just not acceptable to have a losing head to head record against the team with the worst goal differential in the sport. But the silver lining from Monday is that the Flames did have 36 shots on goal plus 33 more that were either blocked or wide of the net. Given Ottawa’s dire goaltending situation at the moment, a second crack HAS to yield in more goal scoring for Calgary tonight. They’d scored 14 times in four games before getting held to just one goal in the last two. The Senators have just two win streaks all season, one was two games and the other three. It’s been nearly a month since they won back to back games as they’re 0-3 off a win since. An easy call on the Flames tonight. Play on CALGARY AAA | |||||||
03-23-21 | Lightning -161 v. Stars | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY It seems like Tampa Bay is once again the team to beat in the NHL. The defending Stanley Cup Champions have the most points (48) and best goal differential (+42) in the league right now as they have won four in a row. They’ve scored four or more goals in all four wins. They’ve scored at least four goals in eight of the last nine games as well. The current four-game run began right here in Dallas with a 4-3 victory over the Stars. While it’s a little misleading that Dallas is in second to last place in the Central Division (they’ve played the fewest games of anyone in the league), they have lost six of their last nine games. The latest loss was in a shootout against Nashville on Sunday. They are getting thin at the forward position due to mounting injuries. They are just not in the same class as Tampa Bay, a point further driven home by the fact they are 0-3 head to head with the Lightning in 2020-21, two of those losses coming in shutout fashion. Dallas is 0-4 their last four games as a home underdog. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
03-23-21 | Panthers -148 v. Blackhawks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -148 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on FLORIDA Looking at the Central Division, you clearly have three good teams. One is obviously Tampa Bay. The other two are Carolina and Florida. Chicago is in 4th place, but when you look at the goal differential column there is a massive discrepancy between those top three teams and the Blackhawks. Chicago has been outscored by 11 goals this season. Florida is +17 in GD. The Panthers are also hotter right now (7-3 L10) than the Blackhawks (3-6-1 L10). Florida is off a 5-3, but that was to Tampa Bay. Chicago is off four straight losses, not just two to Tampa Bay but also two to the Panthers! Those games, both of which were played in Miami, saw the Panthers win by scores of 4-2 and 6-3. After the losses to the Lightning, the Blackhawks have surrendered a total of 18 goals during the four-game losing skid. Over the past seven games, they’ve allowed at least four goals six different times. That’s really bad. Florida averages 3.9 goals/game when on the road, where they are 10-3-1 this season. They are averaging 38.6 shot attempts per game the last five while giving up just 26.6. They even outshot the Lightning 32-24. Play on FLORIDA AAA | |||||||
03-23-21 | Lakers v. Pelicans OVER 222 | Top | 111-128 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Without LeBron James and Anthony Davis, the Lakers have vowed to completely overhaul their approach to the game. Dennis Schroeder noted “it’s totally opposite now” and that may be the understatement of the year. Things did not go real well for the Lakers in their first game since James sprained his ankle. They got blown out in Phoenix and scored just 94 points. In six quarters without LeBron, the team has totaled only 141 points and three of those quarters saw them score 18 points or less. But tonight should see more scoring as they face a New Orleans team that doesn’t play much defense. The Pelicans are giving up 114.7 points/game and only two teams (Sacramento, Portland) allow more points per possession. So if Los Angeles can play fast tonight, they’ll score a decent number. New Orleans averages 117.7 points/game at home, a big reason why the Over is 17-4 here. This total should be higher. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-22-21 | USC v. Kansas +1.5 | Top | 85-51 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS Kansas is the higher seed, but an underdog to USC. We like the Jayhawks to cover (and thus almost certainly win) this second round battle. They scored 93 points against Eastern Washington, so it’s going to be much different here for USC than it was playing Drake, who shot only 19 percent in the second half Saturday. Going back to the beginning of February, Kansas has really been one of the best teams in the whole country. They’re 9-1 in the L10 games with the one loss coming by three points at Texas. We are really a bit shocked that they are the underdogs here. USC was lucky in the first round as they were playing a team coming off an exhausting win in the “First Four” just 48 hours earlier. Prior to defeating Drake, USC had just two wins over NCAA Tournament teams in its last 11 games and one of those was a giant comeback (vs UCLA) that they won by a single point. Kansas had four wins over NCAA Tournament teams during that same stretch, one of which was against top seeded Baylor. Play on KANSAS AAA | |||||||
03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State -120 | Top | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 9* on FSU (money line) Florida State was able to win its first round game by 10 points despite not making a single three-point shot. Colorado won its first round game by 23, but made 16 three-pointers and was better than 60% overall from the field. The Buffaloes go from facing a .500 Georgetown team to arguably the best team in the ACC. FSU did have a double digit advantage over UNC Greensboro for much of the first round game and never trailed. Like Colorado, the Seminoles got off to a hot start (led 23-7), but the difference was they led the underdog back into the game. We think that’s created some value and we’ll take the Noles to win the game outright here as there just is no way that Colorado is going to play as well as they did against the Hoyas. CU has been an underdog four times this season and only won once. Play FLORIDA STATE (MONEY LINE) AAA | |||||||
03-22-21 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 224 | Top | 119-105 | Push | 0 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER A couple of bad teams here. Cleveland is actually off a win though. They beat short-handed Toronto yesterday by a score of 116-105. They had a big lead early and held on for the ‘W.” Tonight they’ll host Sacramento, a team that saw a two-game win streak end with a 24-point loss in Philadelphia the other night. The Kings have only five wins in the last 18 games, but are still favored here, which should tell you what the oddsmakers think of the Cavs. We know Sacramento doesn’t play much defense, but Cleveland is near the bottom of the league in points per game (104.0). The Cavs have scored at least 110 for three consecutive games now, but that’s atypical of them. The three games prior (to those three), they didn’t score 100 even once. So they should experience a downturn offensively tonight. The Kings have failed to top 107 in three of their last five contests. They are 5-0 Under after allowing 100+ their last game. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
03-22-21 | Flames -164 v. Senators | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -164 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CALGARY Ottawa is a clear cut contender to be considered the worst team in the league. If not for Buffalo and it’s current 13-game losing streak, the Senators would probably be the unanimous call as the worst. They’ve allowed 130 goals, which is 20 more than the next worst team. Right now, the goaltending situation is very bleak. Their top three goalies are all hurt, which leaves them with the option of Filip Gustavsson or Anton Forsberg. Gustavsson has just one period of NHL experience while Forsberg was a recent waiver pick up. No matter who starts between the pipes here for the Sens, look for it to be a long night. Calgary had scored 14 goals in four games before getting blanked by Toronto 2-0 on Saturday. Ottawa has just one win in its last six games. We’re not going to pretend the Flames are great, but this should be an easy two points. Play on CALGARY AAA | |||||||
03-22-21 | Ohio +5.5 v. Creighton | Top | 58-72 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OHIO Creighton was not particularly impressive in a 63-62 win over Cal Santa Barbara on Saturday. We faded them and got the cash as the Gauchos were 7.5 point underdogs. Really, the Bluejays never really threatened to cover the spread and we thought UCSB kind of threw the game away late. Now it’s a chance to take the points against Creighton again, this time with Ohio, an upset winner in the first round over defending National Champion Virginia. The Bobcats were able to win that game despite shooting only 7 of 23 from behind the arc. Save for an ugly home loss to Buffalo on Feb 27, Ohio has been excellent the last two months. They are 10-1 the last 11 games, both straight up and against the spread. They’ve got two quality players in Ben Vander Plas and Jason Preston. The Bobcats’ ATS record in neutral site games is 5-0 in 2021 and considering that Creighton’s last three games have produced two wins by a total of three points and a loss by 25, taking the points here is a no brainer. We give Ohio an excellent shot at winning this game straight up. Play on OHIO AAA | |||||||
03-21-21 | Oral Roberts +8.5 v. Florida | Top | 81-78 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ORAL ROBERTS Florida grinded out an OT victory against Virginia Tech in the first round. We had them on the money line, so that was a positive result for us. Oral Roberts still being alive is something very few could have predicted as they stunned 2-seed Ohio State, also in overtime. While the Eagles improbable run very well could come to an end on Sunday, we like them plus the points. Florida has major injury issues. Tyree Appleby left the Va Tech game with a facial laceration. Omar Payne got himself suspended (by the team) for dishing out a flagrant elbow in the SEC Tournament. Both are questionable for this game. Note this is all in addition to the team already playing without Keyontae Johnson, who collapsed on the court early in the season. Oral Roberts has the nation’s leading scorer in Max Abmas, who averages 24.2 points/game. He went for 29 against Ohio State. Florida isn’t as strong as Ohio State, even when at their healthiest, which they’re not right now. Oral Roberts has covered five straight games and this is too many points. Play on ORAL ROBERTS AAA | |||||||
03-21-21 | Wizards v. Nets -8 | Top | 106-113 | Loss | -114 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN After losing to Orlando Friday night, Brooklyn should bounce back tonight at home vs. Washington. The Nets actually are seeking double revenge in this matchup after losing twice to the Wizards back in January. Both games saw them blow big leads. With Washington off a shocking upset over Utah, all signs point to a “return to normalcy” Sunday evening. No team allows more points per game than the Wiz. No team scores more points per game than Brooklyn. The Nets can probably name their point total here as the Wizards have allowed an average of 125.6 points over their previous five contests. The Nets are still winners of 14 of the last 16 games (12-4 ATS) and the last time they were off a loss, they bounced back with an 11-point win in San Antonio. This matchup is far more favorable. James Harden has missed 31 of his last 36 three-point attempts. Think he might be “due” to go “off?” There’s no better opponent for him to do so than this one. Play on BROOKLYN AAA | |||||||
03-21-21 | Texas Tech -125 v. Arkansas | Top | 66-68 | Loss | -125 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS TECH (ML) Texas Tech meets Arkansas in second round action and it’s a situation where the #6 seed is favored over the #3. Arkansas was a trendy pick to get upset in their first round matchup with Colgate. We even took the Patriots and for a while there it was looking rather good as they held an early 14-point lead. But it would not last. The Razorbacks fought back to take the lead at halftime and ended up winning by 17, easily covering the 9.5-point number. Things will not be that easy today vs. Texas Tech, who looked great against Utah State in the first round. We were on the Red Raiders as they held the Aggies to just 53 points and, like Arkansas, really dominated the second half. It’s a short spread, but we feel the ML is the better bet in this one. Arkansas has lost four of the five games it has been an underdog in this season. Texas Tech has now won six of its last seven NCAA Tournament games, the only loss coming in the 2019 Title Game to Virginia, which went to overtime. In 2018, they made a run to the Elite Eight, so it’s actually a 9-2 NCAA Tourney run. Look for the Red Raiders to frustrate the Hogs by slowing the pace of the game down. Play on TEXAS TECH (MONEY LINE) AAA | |||||||
03-21-21 | Golden Knights -170 v. Kings | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -170 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 7* on VEGAS Vegas, despite winning five straight, can feel Colorado breathing down its neck as the Avalanche are on a six-game win streak and just three points back in the West Division. The Golden Knights could really use the two points here and we think they grab them as Los Angeles simply isn’t in their class. Vegas won the first game here at Staples Center, 4-2 on Friday. The Kings have just three victories in their last 11 games. They’ve played the Golden Knights three times so far and all three times they have gone down in defeat. The Golden Knights are 8-1 their last 9 as road favorites. This would be their eighth sweep of a back to back already, if they were to win tonight. During the five game win streak, they have scored a total of 21 goals. LA has just 12 goals in its last five contests. Play on VEGAS AAA | |||||||
03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois OVER 133 | Top | 71-58 | Loss | -113 | 4 h 50 m | Show |
THis is an 8* on OVER Emotions should be high for this in-state battle of Top 25 teams. Loyola Chicago probably should have been seeded higher, though they did have trouble ousting undermanned Georgia Tech in the first round. The Ramblers won that game 71-60 (they pulled away late) despite allowing the Yellow Jackets to shoot 57.4%. Now they face top seeded Illinois, who shot 57.1% in its 78-49 dismantling of Drexel on Friday. We know Loyola usually plays great defense, but there’s a big difference between the Missouri Valley and one of the best teams in College Basketball. The Fighting Illini average 81.3 points/game and while this is a high O/U for a Loyola game, it’s relatively low for what they’re used to seeing in Champaign-Urbana. The Illini have had only two games this season close with totals in the 130’s. Both were vs. Wisconsin and both went Over. The Over is 6-0 for Loyola this season following a non-conference game and the only previou two times they’ve been an underdog in 2020-21, the game also went Over. Both teams shoot better than 50% overall from the field. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-20-21 | Abilene Christian v. Texas -8.5 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS We don’t see Texas, a 3-seed, having any difficulty getting by Abilene Christian in the first round of the NCAA Tourney and are quite shocked that this is a single digit spread. The Longhorns are 5-0 the last five games - both straight up and against the spread. They won the Big 12 Tournament, getting by the likes of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, both of whom were winners yesterday. Abilene Christian hasn’t beaten anyone, well outside of the Southland Conference. They did play both Texas Tech and Arkansas relatively tough back in December, but the spotlight shines brighter this time of year. Every game during Texas’ current win streak was either on the road or at a neutral site. That’s impressive. Yes, we’re well aware of the fact the Longhorns have gone 0-9 ATS their previous nine Tournament appearances, seven of those coming as a favorite. But knowledge of that streak should have the players plenty motivated heading into the nightcap on Saturday. Look for the ‘Horns to win by double digits. Play on TEXAS AAA | |||||||
03-20-21 | Jets v. Oilers -128 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on EDMONTON Edmonton is now tied with Toronto atop the all-Canadian North Division. The Oilers have 40 points and won two in a row, beating Calgary 7-3 and Winnipeg 2-1. We took them in that blowout rival of Alberta rival Calgary. Now they face Winnipeg again. Connor McDavid scored both goals in the last game. He has 58 points (20 goals, 38 assists) to lead the league. While Winnipeg is 8-0-1 following a regulation loss this season, we wonder how they’re going to perform on this long road trip, which just got started and won’t end until 3/29 in Calgary. The Jets have just two fewer points than the Oilers right now, but we believe the true gap in talent between these clubs is far greater. The Oilers have won five straight home games and the favorite has been victorious 7 of the last 10 times these teams have played. Play on EDMONTON AAA | |||||||
03-20-21 | Missouri v. Oklahoma -2 | Top | 68-72 | Win | 100 | 118 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKLAHOMA Oklahoma has not been good at the pay window for a while now. Boomer Sooner hasn’t covered a game since a 91-90 upset win in Morgantown (West Virginia) all the way back on February 13th. The ATS losing streak is now at seven, but we think the Sooners got a good first round draw here with Missouri, who also sputtered down the stretch. Mizzou went from being ranked to somewhat of an also-ran in the SEC by losing six of its last nine games straight up. Two of the three wins were by two and three points, so their record could be even worse. It is crazy to think that both of these teams were ranked in the top 10 at the same time a little over a month ago. OU is going to be without its second leading scorer Saturday. But we can’t discount a team that beat four Top 10 opponents this year, three of them consecutively, despite being short-handed at times. One of those Top 10 teams that they defeated was SEC Champion Alabama. Four of the Sooners’ last five losses came by five points or less, so if they had some better luck there they would have ended up with a much higher seed. We just don’t like Missouri (nothing personal!) and want to fade them. The Tigers are 0-5 ATS their L5 Tournament games. Play on OKLAHOMA AAA | |||||||
03-20-21 | UC-Santa Barbara +7.5 v. Creighton | Top | 62-63 | Win | 100 | 114 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UCSB It’s been a bad month for Creighton. Their head coach had to take a leave for making an insensitive remark to his players and when he came back to coach, the Bluejays promptly got run out of the gym by Georgetown in the Big East Tournament Final. That 25-point loss very well could have a carryover effect here as Creighton faces Cal Santa Barbara, a dangerous 12-seed that has won 18 out of its last 19 games. In the month of March, the Gauchos won four of their five games by 14 or more points. It’s going to be very tough for Creighton to gain any real separation in this matchup as they aren’t very good defensively. The Bluejays’ NCAA Tournament history is not good. They are 4-12 ATS in all Tourney games and lost their last three straight up. UCSB has won 20 or more games the last four seasons. So they are used to winning. We already saw one 12-seed win in this year’s Tournament. Grab the points in this one. Play on CAL SANTA BARBARA AAA | |||||||
03-20-21 | St Bonaventure v. LSU OVER 144 | Top | 61-76 | Loss | -111 | 112 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER LSU came up one point short in the SEC Tournament Championship, but if there’s one thing we can count on from the Tigers, it’s that they’ll score in bunches. They average 82.1 points/game, the eighth most in all of College Basketball. In their last 10 games, the Tigers have scored a minimum of 75 points. That’s the good news. The bad news is they gave up more than 70 in all but two of those 10 games. So expect St. Bonaventure, champions of the Atlantic 10 Conference, to score plenty on Saturday afternoon as well. The Bonnies scored 75, 71 and 74 in their three-game A-10 Tourney run. We find it very likely that both teams will score at least 70 points in this one. The Over is 6-1 in St. Bonaventure’s last seven neutral site games. The Over is 7-1 the last eight games where LSU was the favorite. Between these teams, there are nine double digit scorers. This is a really low total for an LSU game. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-20-21 | Eastern Washington +11 v. Kansas | Top | 84-93 | Win | 100 | 111 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on EWU There is no denying the fact Kansas closed the season strong. The Jayhawks will arrive at the NCAA Tournament having won eight of their last nine games. The one loss was by three at Texas. But they were forced to withdraw from the Big 12 Tournament because of a positive COVID-19 test and that kind of disruption can certainly have an adverse effect on the team here. Eastern Washington is the first round opponent and this isn’t your typical 14-seed. The Eagles have lost just once since mid-January, a span of 14 games. That one loss was by only five points. During this 13-1 stretch, they have averaged over 80 points/game. Leading scorer Tanner Groves shoots the ball very well. Kansas was only 7-7 away from Allen Fieldhouse this year and it’s no guarantee they win this game, let alone by any kind of serious margin. Three of their last four wins were by single digit margins. In its last five games, Eastern Washington gave up an average of 59 points on 38.5% shooting. They’ll keep it close. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
03-19-21 | Bulls v. Nuggets -7 | Top | 127-131 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Losses like the one the Bulls had Wednesday night are what could ultimately prevent this team from making the playoffs. Not making the postseason would be pretty bad considering how weak the East is this year and that 10 teams now get in because of the play-in scenario. So the bottom line is that the Bulls aren’t really a force to be reckoned with. Getting outscored 39-19 in the 4th quarter by the Spurs and losing 106-99 snapped a two-game win streak. Now the Bulls hit the road to face a Denver team that’s arguably playing its best basketball of the season. The Nuggets come in having won seven of eight. They’ve won by a combined 40 points in the last two games, beating both Indiana and Charlotte here at home. Chicago is pretty comparable to those teams, tbh, and while the Nuggets are now being asked to lay a larger spread, that shouldn’t be an issue considering they won by six in the Windy City earlier this month. Nikola Jokic had a monster game (39-14-9) against the Bulls, who are just 1-6 ATS their last seven trips to Denver. Play on DENVER AAA | |||||||
03-19-21 | Utah State v. Texas Tech -4.5 | Top | 53-65 | Win | 100 | 88 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS TECH Texas Tech doesn’t have a very good ATS record, but they’ve suffered many tight losses to Big 12 teams. This is a short number against a team from the Mountain West, a conference that typically does not do well in the NCAA Tournament. The Red Raiders last two Tournament appearances have yielded runs to the Elite Eight and National Championship Game. The big problem for Utah State in this game is going to be turnovers. In three of their five losses, the Aggies turned it over an average of 17 times per game. Texas Tech is great at forcing TO’s, forcing the 29th most per game in the country at the eighth highest rate. Utah State topped 62 points once in its last four games. That’s not going to be enough to cover the spread Friday. The Aggies are just 1-5 ATS their last six NCAA Tournament games. Texas Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six. Play on TEXAS TECH AAA | |||||||
03-19-21 | Colgate +9 v. Arkansas | Top | 68-85 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLGATE Colgate has played just 15 games this season, but the champions of the Patriot League have quickly become one of the “trendy underdogs” to pull an outright upset in the opening round. We concur with the public viewpoint. While the Raiders did not play a single non-conference game in the regular season, they are on a 13-game win streak since suffering their only loss, which was by two points against Army. They are second in the entire country, averaging 86.3 points/game, which trails only Gonzaga. Every one of their wins has been by at least eight points. Arkansas just had a 12-game conference win streak snapped in the SEC Tournament. While the Razorbacks had a great year and are getting a lot of fanfare themselves, this is a team that hasn’t played a NCAA Tournament game since 2018. It’s going to take a lot of points to cover the spread in this one and we don’t see the Hogs doing it. Colgate shoots the three very well (40%) and that should keep them in the game. Coming off their first loss in over a month, we expect the favorite to struggle in this matchup. Play on COLGATE AAA | |||||||
03-19-21 | Virginia Tech v. Florida | Top | 70-75 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 9* on FLORIDA (MONEY LINE) Look for Florida to advance out of this 7 vs. 10 matchup. The Gators are making their fourth Tournament appearance under coach Mike White and they are one of only 18 teams in the country to rank top 40 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Tre Mann, who averaged 23 points over the team’s last four games, is the go-to scorer. Considering Florida lost three of those four games, Mann needs help. Look for him to get it from big man Colin Castleton. Virginia Tech, in addition to not having much Tournament experience, hasn’t been on the court much over the last month. COVID affected them about as much as any team in the Big Dance as the Hokies have played just three games since Feb 6th. Two of them were losses. They’ve lost three of their last five overall. The advanced metrics have simply not liked this team all year, despite some impressive non-conference wins. They are 1-4 ATS their last five games vs. teams with winning records and 6-13 ATS vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater. Play on FLORIDA | |||||||
03-18-21 | Hornets v. Lakers UNDER 227 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Tough matchup here for the Hornets. They lost badly in Denver last night, giving up 129 points. Now they head to LA to take on a Lakers team that just scored 137 in its last game. The Lakers didn’t have any issues with its own back to back Sunday/Monday as they routed Golden State and Minnesota in the two games. These teams have not played since Oct 2019 when the Lakers won 120-101 in Charlotte. This is Charlotte’s first visit to Staples Center (to play the Lakers) in almost two years. Look for it to be a relatively low-scoring affair. The Lakers, despite their point totals from the last two games, have been an “Under team” in 2020-21. They are 24-15 Under in all games and 16-7 in those with a total of 220 or higher. The Under is 11-2 when they face a team that has a winning record and Charlotte is 20-19. The Hornets could bounce back here as they are 6-0 ATS off their previous six losses. But they only scored 104 last night and are facing the #1 team in defensive efficiency. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
03-18-21 | Wild v. Avalanche -143 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA Three teams look to be the class of the West Division. Two of them face off Thursday night as Colorado hosts Minnesota (Vegas is the other, for the record). Both teams here are on win streaks and have looked dominant. For Minnesota, it’s five straight wins which includes three shutouts. Colorado has won four in a row and scored eight goals in the last game. Something will have to give Thursday in Denver. We see the Avs getting the two points in what will be the first of two matchups this weekend between the clubs. (They also play Saturday). Something that is very impressive with the Avs team is that they have gone 17 consecutive games without allowing 30 shots on goal. Four times they haven’t allowed 20 shots. That’s how you win games. The Wild aren’t going to have defenseman Carson Soucy or forward Marcus Folingo on the ice tonight and those are two key absences. The entirety of their five-game win streak has been at home. Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
03-18-21 | Drake v. Wichita State -1 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -112 | 69 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WICHITA STATE When Wichita State left the Missouri Valley to join the American Conference in 2017, Drake was probably like “good riddance.” After all, the Bulldogs had lost 11 straight times to the Shockers. Little did they know - four years later - they’d be running into their old MVC rivals in the “First Four” of the NCAA Tournament. Though these were two of the last teams to make it into the field, both had solid arguments for inclusion. Drake started 18-0 and at the time was the only remaining unbeaten besides Gonzaga and Baylor. Wichita State was regular season champ of the conference that included Houston. But we clearly side with the Shockers on Thursday. Drake has been without two of its top three scorers the last month. We know Roman Penn won’t play and leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill may not either. Even if Hemphill does play, it will have been over a month since he last saw the court after suffering a broken foot. The Bulldogs have been an ATS machine this year, but it ends Thursday. The Shockers are 15-3 their last 18 games with one of the losses coming by one point. With the line jumping the fence, that’s even more value. Play on WICHITA STATE AAA | |||||||
03-17-21 | Oilers +106 v. Flames | Top | 7-3 | Win | 106 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 9* on EDMONTON The league’s two Alberta rivals renew pleasantries tonight with the Flames hosting the Oilers. In our view, the NHL’s all-Canadian team North Division has a pretty stark “dividing line” between the top four and bottom three. The top four all have goal differentials of +11 or higher while the bottom three teams have all been outscored this season. Edmonton is the top four, despite losing here in Calgary (4-3) Monday night. They’d previously beaten the Flames three straight times. Calgary is in the bottom three in the North, even though Monday was their third straight win overall. Their penalty kill is perfect since the coaching change, but that won’t last forever. With 1st place Toronto struggling, now is the time Edmonton must make its move toward the top of the division. They are 15-7 L22 overall and 9-2 L11 vs. losing teams. Play on EDMONTON AAA | |||||||
03-17-21 | Flyers -126 v. Rangers | Top | 0-9 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA Second meeting in three days between these teams. The Flyers won the first, by a score of 5-4, back on Monday. That win stretched their advantage over the Rangers to five points in the East Division. Philly needed the win after losing two games to Washington. The Rangers have just one win in their last five after a three-game win streak at the start of March. Those three wins were all against the bottom two in the division, however. Monday’s game did go to overtime, but only after the Flyers squandered an early two-goal advantage. Outside of a seven minute stretch where they found the back of the net three times, NY didn’t play very well. They were without defenseman Adam Fox and right winger Pavel Buchnevich and both remain on the COVID list. That’s a problem considering Fox leads the team in ice time while Buchnevich is tied for the team-high in points with 22. Philly is on a 40-15 run in games where they are favored. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA | |||||||
03-17-21 | Nets -160 v. Pacers | Top | 124-115 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BROOKLYN (MONEYLINE) Indiana continues to be in a terrible way and we don’t think that’ll change tonight against red-hot Brooklyn. The Pacers lost at Denver Monday night, which was their seventh loss in the last nine games. They’ve covered just twice in that span as well. As for the Nets, they come in as winners of five in a row and 13 of their last 14. The pointspread, while low for this matchup, can always be tricky. So we’re playing Brooklyn on the moneyline as we don’t want to miss out on a surefire win. (This way, we can avoid getting “backdoored.”) The last two games have seen the Nets fail to cover vs. inferior opposition. They led the Knicks by 18 on Monday, but ended up winning by just five. At the same time, 8 of their last 13 wins have come by double digits. We just want to “make sure” though and that’s the reason for the ML play. The Pacers have allowed 110 or more points in eight of the last nine games and now face the NBA’s highest scoring team. Last month, the Nets beat the Pacers by 10. Play on BROOKLYN (MONEY LINE) AAA | |||||||
03-16-21 | Pelicans +1.5 v. Blazers | Top | 124-125 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW ORLEANS New Orleans has recorded two consecutive blowout wins. The first saw them beat Cleveland 116-82. Given the Cavs stature in the league, you may not be all that impressed by that one. But what about the Pelicans shooting 65% and blitzing the Clippers 135-115 Sunday night? We had the Over in that game and were loving it as NO was up by 33 at one point. Zion Williamson has scored at least 20 points in 17 consecutive games. By the way, the shooting percentage from the Pelicans on Sunday was a new NBA season-high. We like their chances tonight in Portland as they face a Blazers team that’s trending in a different direction right now. Portland lost in Minnesota the other night, which was also the fourth straight game they did not cover the spread. They are only 4-6 SU the L10 games. While the majority of their recent outings have been closely contested affairs, no team in the league has suffered more 20+ point losses. CJ McCollum is set to return tonight, but after a two-month absence, it’ll take awhile for him to return to his “old self.” The Pelicans are looking for revenge as they lost by two at home to the Blazers last month. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA | |||||||
03-16-21 | Jazz v. Celtics OVER 227.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Jazz’s first four games of March have been their worst stretch of basketball all season. They’ve lost three of them straight up while going 0-4 ATS. The only win was against a Houston team that has lost its last 16 games. Even worse is that in all three losses, they’ve surrendered 129 or more points. Those three losses all came on the road and tonight they are in Boston to play a Celtics team that has scored more than 130 in two of its last three contests. Now one of those was their own matchup with Houston. The other was the last time they played at home, when they beat Toronto. Utah has let four of its last six opponents shoot north of 51%. Golden State was above 56% in a 131-119 game Sunday. Boston shot 55% against Houston Sunday and was above 60% in that Toronto game. Unless the Jazz can pull off some sort of dramatic defensive improvement in 48 hours, we should be looking at a lot of points from the Celtics here. Utah has gone Over the last five times it has been a road favorite and they are favored here. The final score was 122-108 (Jazz won) when the teams played each other last month. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-16-21 | Sabres v. Devils -157 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 9* on NEW JERSEY These are the bottom two teams in the East Division and going back to February 27th, they have just one win between them. That one win belongs to the Devils and it was on March 7th against Boston by a score of 1-0. They are 1-7-2 their L10 games and just dropped all three games vs. the Islanders, the last one going to a shootout. That’s actually better than Buffalo, who last won a game on February 23rd against … the Devils. Actually, their last two wins have both been against the Devils as they also beat them on Feb 20th. But an overtime loss to them (NJ) on Feb 25th began what is now an 11-game losing skid coming into tonight. Nine of those 11 Sabres’ losses have come in regulation as they’ve been outscored 47-17. They have been shutout each of the last two games, 3-0 by Pittsburgh on Sunday and 6-0 by Washington last night. You can’t do anything but fade Buffalo at this point, even if New Jersey doesn’t seem all that appealing in its own right. The Devils have lost 11 in a row on home ice, a franchise record, so you have to figure they’ll be super motivated to end that slide here against favorable opposition. Play on NEW JERSEY AAA | |||||||
03-15-21 | Knicks v. Nets OVER 224.5 | Top | 112-117 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Eight of the last nine times these NY rivals have met, the game has gone Under the total. But the one exception was the last time they played, back in January, as the Nets won 116-109 in MSG. That was right before James Harden joined the Nets. With Harden in the fold, Brooklyn has become the most prolific scoring team in the NBA. They average 120.6 points/game and go Over with tremendous regularity. They are 25-14 Over in all games this season and that’s with six of the last nine staying Under. Saturday saw them get held under 110 points for just the 8th time all season, but they still managed to defeat Detroit 100-95. Even without Kevin Durant, the Nets still continue to score in bunches. The Knicks last four games have gone Over due to their own uptick in scoring (scored 119 in a win over OKC on Sat) and some poor defensive efforts (allowed 134 to Milwaukee on Thursday). We’ll look for a combination of the two tonight as the Over is 20-7 in games where Brooklyn is the favorite. After the subpar shooting effort vs. the Pistons, the Nets should score a ton tonight. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-15-21 | Canucks -171 v. Senators | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 7* on VANCOUVER Ottawa is one of the worst teams in the league. In last place in the all-Canadian North Division, they have the NHL’s worst goal differential at -41. A few teams have less points on the season, but nobody has given up more goals and quite frankly it is not even close. The 124 allowed are 24 more than the next worst team! The fact they held on to defeat Toronto 4-3 last night with a goalie making his first career start is a minor miracle. We don’t expect them to win again tonight though. First off, they are 0-6 when playing on back-to-back days. Secondly, they are 1-6 after scoring four or more goals in their previous game. Thirdly, at no point this season have they won two straight games in regulation. With the exception of a 5-2 stretch in February where they won two in a row and then three in a row, the Sens have no win streaks all year. Vancouver, who has won four of its last five games, had Sunday off. They should easily take this game as they have beaten Ottawa in six of the last seven head to head matchups. Play on VANCOUVER AAA | |||||||
03-15-21 | Bruins -107 v. Penguins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON The Bruins are down in 4th place in the East Division right now as the top three have all gotten hot. The Islanders, Capitals and Penguins have won nine, four and five in a row respectively. Tonight the Bruins are in Pittsburgh to face the Pens and desperately need to win to keep pace with all the surging teams in their division. Last night’s 4-0 loss to the Rangers didn’t help as they got outshot 33-18. We will point out that the B’s shut the Rangers out by the same 4-0 score two nights prior. Pittsburgh’s last four wins have come at the expense of either the Rangers or Sabres. It was a 3-0 win in Buffalo Saturday night. But they lost twice in Beantown back in the third week of the season and the Bruins are a better team than what they’ve shown recently. We expect Boston to bounce back in this one. Play on BOSTON AAA | |||||||
03-14-21 | Clippers v. Pelicans OVER 235.5 | Top | 115-135 | Win | 100 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Clippers went into the All-Star Break on a three-game losing streak. But they came out and crushed the Warriors by 26 Thursday night. So it looks as if everything will be just fine. They scored 130 points Thursday as they continue to be the most efficient offense in the league outside of Brooklyn. Expect them to score a lot of points tonight as they face a New Orleans team that is just dreadful defensively. The Pelicans give up the third most points per possession in the league. That translates into 115.5 points allowed per game. They only gave up 82 on Friday, easily a season-low, but that was against Cleveland. The game before that, they allowed 135 to Minnesota. The Over is 26-11 in all Pelicans’ games this season, 16-4 at home and 12-4 when the total is 230.0 or higher. An easy call here. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-14-21 | Hurricanes v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -116 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Carolina, who is as hot as any team in the league right now, should easily continue its winning ways Sunday and move back into first place with a win over last place Detroit. That being said, we really can’t back them at the current price. But what we will do is take advantage of the fact they are likely to score a lot of goals here and take the Over. The Hurricanes have won seven straight games and have scored at least three goals in every game. They’ve scored 28 total or an average of 4.0 per game. The Red Wings, who just snapped a four-game losing streak by beating Tampa Bay 6-4 on Thursday, have given up an average of 4.8 goals their last five games. Every opponent has scored at least four and that includes Carolina, who won 5-2 when the teams played on March 4th in Raleigh. Detroit has scored at least two goals in six of their last seven games, so they’ll help here as well. The Over is 6-1 in those seven contests. The Over is 4-0 in Carolina’s last four as a road favorite. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-14-21 | LSU v. Alabama UNDER 158 | Top | 79-80 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Alabama rallied from 15 down to defeat Tennessee in the semifinals. That was a much more difficult endeavor than the quarterfinals when the Crimson Tide blew past Mississippi State 85-48. Today, it’s a bit of a surprise that they face LSU in the SEC Tournament Final. The Tigers have won a couple close games in this tourney, 76-73 over Ole Miss and 78-71 over Arkansas. In yesterday’s upset, they held the second-seeded Razorbacks to 11 points below their season average and to just 6 of 26 from three-point range. Averaging more than 80 points/game, LSU is one of the top offensive teams in the country, but here they run into a team that happens to be #1 in the country in defensive efficiency. Bama really “gave it” to LSU in both regular season games, winning by 30 and 18. In the 30-point rout, they scored 105 points. That won’t happen today. The Under is 5-1 in the Tide’s past six games. The second time these teams played this year, the final score ended up being 78-60 and while it may not wind up as lopsided this time, that’s the number of total points we’re looking for here. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
03-13-21 | Islanders -165 v. Devils | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the ISLANDERS This seems like a pretty big mismatch, right? The Islanders lead the East Division with 38 points. They have won their last seven games, scoring five times in four of the last five. The most recent five-goal effort was Thursday against the Devils, who they’ll face again on Saturday. New Jersey is second to last in the division with only 19 points, half the Isles’ current total. The Devils have just one win in the last eight games and it came by a score of 1-0. They’ve allowed 22 goals in the past four losses, surrendering five or more in all of them. They have not scored in the first two periods in three of the six games they’ve played this month. We know NY is without its captain (Anders Lee), but they should still easily defeat the Devils. Play on NY ISLANDERS AAA | |||||||
03-13-21 | Raptors +2.5 v. Hornets | Top | 104-114 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO Toronto is a better team than Charlotte. They are a bit short-handed right now due to COVID protocol and that is why they are getting points Saturday. Home court doesn’t mean much this season. The Hornets are just 10-8 in home games this year and that’s after a three-point win over a bad Detroit team Thursday. That same night, the Raptors appeared headed for victory as well. They led the Hawks by 15 in the final six minutes, but ended up losing on a buzzer beater. That was their third straight loss and fifth in the last six games. But we’ll go with them to bounce back here against a team they beat twice earlier in the season. Both wins were by just three points, but we’d take that here. It’s fair to say that the Hornets being in the top eight in the conference standings is a MAJOR surprise. It’s not just that they weren’t expected to do much. They’ve also given up more points in 2020-21 than they’ve scored. There have been three previous times this season when the Raptors have been on a three-game losing streak. They’ve responded by going 3-0 SU/ATS in the next game. They are 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in this situation the last three years. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
03-13-21 | Oklahoma State +2 v. Texas | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OKLAHOMA STATE Oklahoma State is just about as anybody in College Basketball right now. The 12th ranked Cowboys come into the Big 12 Championship Game having won eight of their last nine games. They just avenged the one loss by beating top seed Baylor 83-74 Friday. That was their eighth consecutive cover as well. Texas’ path to the Tournament Final has been much easier. The Longhorns didn’t even have to play yesterday as Kansas was knocked out by a positive COVID-19 test. That was after escaping with a one-point win against Texas Tech in the quarterfinals. OSU covered both times they played Texas in the regular season. They lost by three in Austin (but were +7.5 in that game) and then won 75-67 in Stillwater, a game that went to two overtimes. Right now, you’ve got to ride these Cowboys as they seemingly are doing everything right. Not sure how the unexpected bye will affect Texas. They were down by 10 in both halves vs. Texas Tech. OSU has never been in that kind of danger in the tournament. The Longhorns are 3-9-1 ATS L13 as a favorite. Play on OKLAHOMA STATE AAA | |||||||
03-13-21 | Ohio State v. Michigan OVER 144.5 | Top | 68-67 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Over worked quite well for us in Michigan’s win yesterday over Maryland as the Wolverines shot 51.7 percent, including 10 of 22 on three-pointers. They put up 79 points, their most in a game since a February 25th win over Iowa. So we’re going back to Over today as the Wolverines face rival Ohio State in the first Big Ten semifinal. The Buckeyes had to go to OT to get by Purdue yesterday as it was the second day in a row they blew a double digit lead in the second half. They wound up with 87 points, their most in a game since a loss to Michigan last month. That game soared past the number as it was a 92-87 final. We don’t see nearly 40 fewer points being scored this time, especially since the Buckeyes really struggle at the defensive end of the floor. They are 76th in the country in defensive efficiency, easily the worst among top 10 teams. That’s why they struggle to protect leads. Earlier, we brought up the 79 (points) Michigan scored on Iowa last month as the Hawkeyes are another team that struggles defensively. Look for a lot of points Saturday. The Over is 5-0 the last five times Ohio State has been an underdog. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-12-21 | Coyotes v. Wild -180 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA Even with a win tonight, Minnesota can not move into a first place tie in the West Division. That’s because the two teams ahead of them - Vegas and St. Louis - meet and the winner of that one is assured being on top. But we still expect the Wild to pick up two points here as they host Arizona. The teams just split a pair of games in Phoenix last week, but here in the Twin Cities the Wild have the clear edge. That’s because the ‘Yotes are 8-20 their L28 road games, all of which found them as the underdog on the money line. Minnesota has won five straight home games. The Wild just took two here opposite Vegas, which really helped their cause. Goaltender Kahkonen has been as hot as anybody between the pipes lately. He’s won eight consecutive starts, the longest streak by any goaltender this season, and posted a .922 save percentage and 2.19 goals against average. Play on MINNESOTA AAA | |||||||
03-12-21 | Nuggets v. Grizzlies UNDER 228 | Top | 103-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Denver is hoping to start the second half of the season the way it finished the first. Four straight wins going into the All-Star Break has them back up in fifth place in the West. We took them their last time out, which ended up being a 113-103 win against Indiana. The team they face tonight is Memphis and we cashed in on the Grizzlies’ last game as well, albeit with the Over. That was real close, but Memphis still found a way to score 127 points, which was the third time in four games that they finished with at least 125. We don’t see them scoring anywhere close to that number tonight though. But maybe they won’t have to as we also are expecting the All Star Break to have an adverse effect on the Nuggets’ previously red-hot shooting. In many ways, the break came at a bad time for the Nuggets. They’ve shot better than 55% during the four-game win streak. This being their first game in over a week, expect a cold start. Memphis has limited its last five foes to 107.6 points on 43.3% shooting. We should also mention Denver is allowing just 102 points/game during its winning streak. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
03-12-21 | Maryland v. Michigan OVER 132.5 | Top | 66-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER So Maryland and Michigan have each gone Under in their last five games. Maryland won Thursday as they erased an early deficit against Michigan State. The score ended up being 68-57, a comfortable win.They are allowing fewer than a 60-point average the past five games. But that streak will obviously be tested here by top seed Michigan. The Wolverines are an elite team at both ends of the floor. Offensively, production did dip the last three games. But you shouldn’t worry about it. These teams played twice in the regular season. Michigan won both. They scored 84 and 87 points. Both games went Over. What’s interesting here is the total is way lower than it was for either regular season matchup. Value? We think so. The Over is 4-0 for both squads their last four games versus teams that have winning records. The Over is also 4-0 the last four times they have played. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-11-21 | Wolves v. Pelicans UNDER 239 | Top | 135-105 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Plenty of points will be expected here as New Orleans hosts Minnesota, the first game after the All Star Break for both teams. But unlike our O/U play yesterday where we felt the expectation for lots of points was justified (we had the Over in Washington-Memphis), here we believe the total is a bit “too high.” Yes, most Pelicans’ games this season have gone Over the total. They are the league’s top Over team at 25-10-1 due in large part to their very poor play at the defensive end. Minnesota actually allows a higher number of points per game! But even so, we’re looking at one of the highest totals this season in the NBA and it's after a long break. Look for both teams to come out a bit rusty and a slow start (offensively) is all we need to cash an Under tonight. The Timberwolves have lost nine in a row and five of those losses saw them fail to score more than 104 points. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
03-11-21 | Cal Poly v. Cal-Irvine -15 | Top | 51-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UC IRVINE UC Irvine is a big favorite to move on to the Big West semis as it caught a lucky break and will face last place Cal Poly today. Cal Poly was an upset winner on Tuesday, 87-82 against CS Fullerton. It was their first win of any kind since January 29th. There were nine straight losses in between. Then you’ve got the fact that the two times the Mustangs faced UC Irvine, they lost by 23 and 19 points. They are 0-6 vs. UC Irvine the last three seasons. UC Irvine has won four straight and six of its last seven coming into the tournament. While Cal Poly got one day off between tournament games, UC Irvine has been off since Saturday. This figures to be quite the lopsided affair. Cal Poly had not won a single game away from home all year before Tuesday and they average just 58.6 points/game on their travels. Look for the favorite to win very big in this one. Play on UC IRVINE AAA | |||||||
03-11-21 | Panthers v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We think Florida is a pretty good team. Not as good as either Tampa Bay or Carolina, but the Panthers are better than the rest of the Central Division. That includes Columbus, whom they just defeated on Tuesday by a score of 4-2. That was the Blue Jackets’ second straight loss as well as their seventh loss in the last nine games. Only three times in those nine games have they scored more than two goals. They’d gone Under six in a row before running into the Panthers 48 hours ago. Florida may be averaging almost 4.0 goals per game on the road. However, that average will be extremely difficult to maintain as the season wears on. We don’t think they’ll match that number here tonight and that basically means an Under is automatic as the Blue Jackets aren’t likely to score more than two of their own. The Under is 10-5 for Columbus this season when they are playing in a revenge spot. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
03-11-21 | Northern Colorado v. Southern Utah -7 | Top | 83-91 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SOUTHERN UTAH Southern Utah comes into the Big Sky Tournament as the top seed, having gone 12-2 SU in the regular season. The Thunderbirds were a little lucky in that they played one fewer game than both Eastern Washington and Weber State, who were each 12-3. But that’s something to possibly “worry about” later as today’s game vs. 8-seed Northern Colorado should be a “breeze.” Northern Colorado had to win yesterday just to get here. They beat Sacramento State 90-83 thanks to a career-high 30 points from Bodie Hume, who was 7 of 10 on three-point attempts. The 90 points were also a season-high for the Bears. Southern Utah has not lost a game since January 21st. They have won nine straight games, seven of them by 10 or more points. They only lost three times all season and one of them was the season opener. The other two were on the road to the Big Sky’s other top two teams. This would be a mismatch even without SUU having the bye. Play on SOUTHERN UTAH AAA | |||||||
03-10-21 | Canadiens v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -185 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 7* on VANCOUVER +1.5 (PUCK LINE) We’re playing the puck line here, which means Vancouver +1.5. It’s a little surprising that we are able to get the added goal and a half under -200 seeing as the Canucks have won three in a row and just beat Montreal, who they face here, 2-1 on Monday night. Prior to that win, they beat Toronto twice in a row. The Maple Leafs are the top team in the North Division and one of the best in the entire league. The Canadiens have just two wins in the last eight games as a coaching change has done little to turn around their fortune. Some of it has been bad luck (the team is 0-7 in overtime this year). But Vancouver has just three losses by more than one goal in the last month, so the puck line seems like a safe bet tonight. Montreal has lost five in a row when favored on the road. Play on VANCOUVER +1.5 AAA | |||||||
03-10-21 | California v. Stanford -6 | Top | 76-58 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on STANFORD California is quite bad. Save for a shocking upset over Colorado on February 13th, they have not won since January 16th. They finished last in the conference after dropping their final four regular season games. In three of those four losses, they were held to 57 points or fewer. Stanford is the Bears’ first round opposition and it’s likely to be a short run in the Pac 12 Tournament (for Cal). The Cardinal won both regular season matchups, 70-55 at home and 76-70 on the road. Those games took place at the start of February. Cal has not played in nearly two weeks. It’s really difficult to see them “showing up” in Vegas with any incentive as they went 3-18 SU in league play. Outside of the four games where they were a home favorite (went 4-0), the Bears were 4-19 SU this season. Stanford is also on a four-game losing streak, but had a better year than Cal and should have a longer run in Vegas this week. Maybe they don’t make it far, but the Cardinal should easily make it to tomorrow with a win and cover here. Play on STANFORD AAA | |||||||
03-10-21 | Kings -125 v. Ducks | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LOS ANGELES The league’s three California teams are at the bottom of the Pacific right now, however we believe the Kings to pretty clearly be the best of the trio. They’ve got a positive goal differential this season, which is an encouraging sign even though they come into tonight having dropped five of the last six games. The last loss came here vs. Anaheim on Monday. That was the Ducks second straight victory (they also won at Colorado on Saturday). Note that both wins came in OT, however. Before those two wins, the Ducks had lost nine straight games. While seven of those losses were by one goal, three of them coming after regulation, Anaheim can’t hide from the fact they are tied for the third fewest number of wins in the entire league right now. Their -20 goal differential is also near the bottom of the league. Scoring six goals on only 25 shots, like the Ducks did Monday, isn’t likely to happen again. The Kings should have #1 goalie Jonathan Quick back between the pipes tonight (did not play Monday) and they’ll take this game quite seriously considering they are 0-2 vs. Anaheim this season. Over the past month, they’ve been beaten in regulation only two times. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA | |||||||
03-10-21 | Wizards v. Grizzlies OVER 237 | Top | 112-127 | Win | 101 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Certainly, you have to be aware of the fact that the Wizards don’t play much defense. Their 119.1 points/game allowed is the most this season in the Eastern Conference. League-wide, only Sacramento gives up more and there’s only one other team within three points of those two. So the Wizards should definitely be accommodating when it comes to this big Over play. As for Memphis, they put up 122 or more in three of their last five games. They’ll take advantage of that poor Washington defense. The Grizzlies have played in two games this year in which they had three or more days rest. Those two games averaged 245.5 points/game. The Over is 4-0 the last four times they’ve played with three or more days rest. These teams played on March 2nd and it was 125-111 Grizzlies, a final score that came just shy of the total. But we think the team will score a few more tonight. Bradley Beal leads the NBA in scoring at 32.9 points/game. He scored just 23 in the loss to Memphis last week, so expect him to perhaps be the sole difference tonight’s game goes Over the total. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-10-21 | Marquette v. Georgetown +3 | Top | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* on GEORGETOWN The Big East Tournament gets underway Wednesday and here we have the 9-seed Marquette taking on the 8-seed Georgetown in the very first matchup. The lower seed is actually favored, which is not all that strange (it is an 8-9 matchup), but we disagree with it. Marquette has won four of its last five, but so had G’town before losing at UConn Saturday. That blowout loss seems to have had a direct influence on this line. Now Marquette was a 4.5 point favorite when these teams played (at Georgetown) in the lone regular season battle. But those who watched that game will recall that the Hoyas led by 16 at half. They came back to win by four, but G’town remembers and is out for revenge. The Golden Eagles failed to cover 14 of their first 20 games this season, before a relatively strong finish. They are 3-8 ATS off a straight up win. Georgetown is 4-0 ATS off its last four ATS defeats. Play on GEORGETOWN AAA | |||||||
03-09-21 | Jets v. Maple Leafs -174 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -174 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO The Leafs have lost two in a row for just the second time all season, but they still lead the all-Canadian North Division with 38 points. They can also still claim to have the best goal differential (+27) in the league outside of Tampa Bay. So we think they’ll bounce back tonight in a major way against Winnipeg. The Jets are third in the North, but were just dealt a humiliating 7-1 defeat at the hands of Montreal. Having only faced Montreal and Vancouver over the last eight games, it’s going to be a big jump up in class when the Jets see tonight’s opponent. Toronto won the first meeting, 3-1, and is facing a team that has given up more goals than it has scored on the road this year. A key trend for tonight is that the Jets are 0-9 their last nine after allowing five or more goals the previous game. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
03-09-21 | Long Beach State +2 v. CS-Northridge | Top | 85-63 | Win | 100 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LBSU The Big West Tournament gets going today and while neither Long Beach State nor Cal State Northridge is expected to do much this week, we see a nice edge with the underdog in this Opening Round matchup. While it’s true that LBSU’s regular season ended with a four-game losing skid, three of those defeats were by two or three points. Had any of those games gone the other way, the Beach would be a higher seed. Now you can say the same for CS Northridge, who lost two close ones to UC Riverside last weekend. But what’s unusual here is CS Northridge is the favorite, something that has happened only two times this year. The line is clearly very small, but this isn’t a team I’d want to bet on to actually win a game. Long Beach State has an incredible six losses by three points or less on its resume, so they are probably better than their record. Neither of these teams is very good defensively, but LBSU has held its opponents to a much lower field goal percentage. They are 7-2 ATS off an ATS loss as well. Play on LONG BEACH STATE AAA | |||||||
03-09-21 | Pepperdine v. BYU -8.5 | Top | 77-82 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BYU Back on January 27th, BYU lost to Pepperdine. We don’t see them losing this time though. It should be more along the lines of their first meeting, which was four days before the second. BYU won that game by 11. The stakes are now higher as this is the semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament. A win here should solidify the Cougars as a NCAA Tournament team. They got the triple bye into the semis by virtue of fishing second and only behind Gonzaga in the regular season standings. Pepperdine finished third and so they had to beat Santa Clara on Saturday. That was a 78-70 win for the Waves as four-point favorites. They do a great job at defending the three-point line, but Pepperdine is pretty clearly the inferior side in this matchup. BYU has won four in a row by holding its opponents to a 39.2 FG%. Something to make note of is that Santa Clara was playing its third game in as many days when Pepperdine beat them. BYU is well rested coming into tonight and remembers the loss from two months ago. Their only other WCC losses (besides the one to Pepperdine) both were against Gonzaga. The majority of the wins came by double digits. Play on BYU AAA | |||||||
03-08-21 | Blues -160 v. Sharks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
full analysis to follow | |||||||
03-07-21 | Oregon -5.5 v. Oregon State | Top | 80-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OREGON There is no doubt that Oregon State has been a proverbial “thorn in the side” to the rest of the Pac 12. The Beavers are 13-1-1 ATS their last 15 games and 7-0 ATS the last 7. (They are 9-6 SU and 3-0 L3 during the same run). This run includes an upset of Oregon, in Eugene, back on January 23rd. But that 75-64 win as nine-point underdogs comes with an asterisk as the Ducks were not even close to full strength. They were down four starters because of COVID-19 and it was actually the only game they got in during all of January. Since getting back to full strength, Oregon has gotten on a roll. They’ve won 9 of 10, the only loss coming at USC. Wednesday’s 82-74 win over UCLA saw them shoot over 60% from the field and move into first place in the Pac 12. They can now clinch the 1-seed for the Pac 12 Tournament if they win tonight. Given the stakes and the revenge angle, the Ducks are a big play for us here. They are 10-1 ATS their L11 Sunday games. Play on OREGON AAA | |||||||
03-07-21 | Rangers v. Penguins -134 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the PENGUINS This will be the second night of a back to back for the Penguins, who just got done playing three in a row against the Flyers. Saturday’s 4-3 victory made it a winning “three-game set” and now Pittsburgh sits fourth in the division with 27 points, level with Philadelphia. Three points behind are the Rangers, who have won three in a row after a terrible start to the season. New York also played yesterday, in New Jersey, where they won 6-1. It was the second straight win there (in NJ) and both games saw the Rangers score six goals. That sounds impressive, but the Devils are bad. The Penguins scored 12 goals in their three games against the Flyers. They get to play on home ice in this battle of unrested teams, which is an advantage. They’ve gone 9-2 SU in the Igloo so far. The one game they lost here to the Flyers saw them blow a 3-0 lead, so really the Pens should have a 10-1 home record and be on a three-game win streak themselves. They’re 8-4 their last 12 as it is. Play on PITTSBURGH AAA | |||||||
03-07-21 | North Alabama v. Liberty -13.5 | Top | 75-79 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LIBERTY This is the Tournament Final in the Atlantic Sun. Liberty has clearly been the best team in the conference all season. This entire tourney has taken place in Jacksonville. Liberty won its first two games by 10 (against Kennesaw State) and 13 (against Stetson). Those were the two lowest seeds in the tournament. North Alabama, the 5 seed, has pulled two upsets to get here, beating North Florida 68-68 (were +3) and Fla Gulf Coast 96-81 (were +2.5). The teams had Saturday off. There was a point late in the season that North Alabama had dropped seven in a row. Then they won the regular season finale against Lipscomb. Three straight upsets and playing with “house money” make them an interesting dog here, but the reality is they’ve got no shot Sunday. Liberty crushed them twice in the regular season, winning by identical 74-54 scores each time. The Flames have not lost since January 15th. I’m aware that Liberty has already punched its ticket to the NCAA Tournament as North Alabama is ineligible (transitioning to D-II). But they will want to head into the Big Dance off a convincing victory. Play on LIBERTY AAA | |||||||
03-06-21 | Flames v. Oilers -126 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on EDMONTON The Battle for Alberta is renewed Saturday night in Edmonton as the Oilers host their rivals from Calgary. The teams have already met three times in 2021 with Edmonton winning two. After splitting the first two in Calgary, it was 7-1 Edmonton the last time they faced off and that was here on home ice. The Oilers are having the better season, although they have lost three in a row. But all three losses were to Toronto, who leads the all-Canadian North Division. With all three of those losses coming at home and by a combined score of 13-1, you’ve got to think the Oilers are going to come out skating fast this evening. Before running into Toronto, the Oilers had won five in a row. They are third in the division. Calgary is 5th after beating Ottawa Thursday. But the fact they could only split four games against the last place Senators was a disappointment. Having played 9 of their last 12 on the road, the Flames may be road weary. Play on EDMONTON AAA | |||||||
03-06-21 | Casey Kenney v. Dominick Cruz +115 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 115 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CRUZ This is the final fight of the prelims on ESPN with Casey Kenney (16-2-1, 5-1 UFC) taking on Dominick Cruz (22-3, 5-2 UFC) in a bantamweight matchup. Of course, both fighters probably have a vested interest in tonight’s title fight. Especially Cruz given that he fought for the 135 lb title last year against then-champ Henry Cejudo. Cruz has been the champion of this division before, but terrible luck with injuries have really set him back. He’s lost his last two fights, but before losing to Cejudo he had not fought since 2016. Kenney is on a three-fight win streak and 9-1 his L10 overall. But he has not demonstrated much finishing ability as only two of those last nine victories have come by means other than a decision. We think it’s a mistake to write off the former champ Cruz in this spot and this is a great value on a fighter that was once 22-1. Kenney has not beaten a fighter the caliber of Cruz in his career. Play on CRUZ AAA | |||||||
03-06-21 | Maple Leafs -194 v. Canucks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -194 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TORONTO The Maple Leafs may very well be the best team in the NHL this season. They have the most points (38). Only Tampa Bay has a better goal differential. But the Leafs are off a 3-1 loss to Vancouver, the team they’ll face again tonight. Now the last time the Canucks won a game was the 1st of the month, 4-0 against Winnipeg. We immediately faded them their next time on the ice and that ended up being a 5-2 win … for us! Same thing here against an even better opponent. While they’ve won twice in the last three games, Vancouver still only has five wins since the start of February. Only division mate Ottawa, who might be the worst team in the league, has given up more goals this season than have the Canucks. Toronto just so happens to have scored the most. The chances that they would lose two in a row to a team like Vancouver seem remote at best. The Leafs had won four in a row and seven of eight before Thursday’s defeat. They’ve lost back to back games only one time all season and it was not to the same opponent. They are 9-1 SU L10 revenge spots and 3-0 this season off a loss by two or more goals. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
03-06-21 | Virginia -2 v. Louisville | Top | 68-58 | Win | 100 | 8 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VIRGINIA Virginia got a win earlier this week, thus snapping a rare three-game losing streak. But that win Monday wasn't enough to satisfy the oddsmakers. The Cavaliers.only won by 11 at Miami and they were 15.5-point favorites. So that makes it four straight games where they have not covered. It’s always tough going to Louisville, but we feel the Cavaliers are definitely the better team here and will gladly lay a short number with them. Louisville has not played since last Saturday when it upset Duke. Even with that win, the Cardinals are just 4-4 their last eight games. They played only four games in February and Wednesday’s game vs. Va Tech was called off due to COVID. Virginia has had the Cardinals number, winning 11 of 13 against them under Tony Bennett. Louisville has a double bye (in the ACC Tournament) at stake here, which is why the line is so short. They are being overvalued due to circumstance as we don’t think Virginia takes it easy on them Saturday. Louisville is just 1-3 ATS as an underdog this season. They are also 1-8-1 ATS L10 following an ATS win. Play on VIRGINIA AAAA | |||||||
03-06-21 | Indiana State v. Loyola-Chicago OVER 122.5 | Top | 49-65 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Missouri Valley Conference Tournament is now down to its semifinals and this event was not without headlines as yesterday Drake got to advance without even playing (its quarter final opponent N Iowa had a positive COVID test). In today’s first semi, top seeded Loyola (ranked #20) will face Indiana State. The Ramblers had no problems in yesterday’s 73-49 beatdown over Southern Illinois. That made it 16 straight games where Loyola has held its opposition below 60 points. The last time they failed to do so was all the way back on January 10th and ironically that was against the team they’ll face here in the semis, Indiana State. The Sycamores won that game 76-71, the first of two times the teams played. (Loyola did win the second 58-48.) The Ramblers average more than 70 points/game, so they can take care of the majority of the scoring today. We do see Indiana State getting to 60, which is probably the key here to the game going Over. This total is REALLY low as ISU’s game vs. Evansville featured fewer than 100 total points. But it’s a new day and the Sycamores are 10-4 Over following a game in which they allowed fewer than 50 points. Loyola has gone Over in five straight neutral site games. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-06-21 | Florida State -7 v. Notre Dame | Top | 73-83 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE Florida State appears to be the class of the ACC this season and can wrap up its second consecutive regular season crown with a win over Notre Dame on Saturday. This should prove not that difficult as the Fighting Irish have lost four games in a row. While three of those were on the road, the last one occurred right here in South Bend and it was by double digits to North Carolina State. Also concerning is that it was the fourth time in the last six games where the Irish gave up at least 80 points. FSU is one of the best offensive teams in the country, not just the best in the ACC. The Seminoles are averaging basically 80 points/game and they just hung 93 on Boston College in a blowout win Wednesday. That’s the same BC team that put up 94 on ND in a recent upset win. While three of the ‘Noles four losses have come on the road, those were all to GOOD teams. Even with senior M.J. Walker listed as questionable, they should be fine considering eight other players are averaging at least 14 minutes per game for one of the deepest teams in all of College Basketball. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA | |||||||
03-05-21 | Ducks v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO -1.5 Anaheim is in a terrible way right now, having lost eight straight games. While the last five losses have all been by one goal, don’t look for this matchup with Colorado to be even remotely close. The Avalanche are one of the best teams in the NHL. They won 4-0 on Wednesday at San Jose, which was their second 4-goal victory in the last seven days. Now Nathan MacKinnon did leave with a head injury Wednesday night. The hope is that he can play here. But even if he sits, we think the Avs roll in this one. Only one team has scored fewer goals than the Ducks. That would be New Jersey, who has scored one fewer and has played four fewer games. The Avs have won 14 of 20 against teams that have a win % below .400. Over its last six games, Anaheim has allowed an average of 4.0 goals/game. They’ve been close recently, but all those one goal losses can take a toll. Our view is they will get blown out tonight. Play on COLORADO -1.5 AAA | |||||||
03-05-21 | Arkansas-Little Rock +2 v. Appalachian State | Top | 60-67 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LITTLE ROCK Despite struggling mightily down the stretch, we think Little Rock is the better team here in this first round Sun Belt Tournament matchup. It’s not as if Appalachian State is playing any better. While Little Rock may be just 1-7 SU its last eight games, App State is 1-6 SU in their last seven. The difference is Little Rock is coming off a win, 69-59 against Louisiana, last Saturday. It was not a good year at the betting window for the Trojans (6-16 ATS), a clear sign of underachieving. Turning the basketball over too much has been a problem. But the team’s defensive numbers have steadily improved throughout conference play and they’ve got a big advantage in that regard in this particular matchup. Appalachian State allows its opponents an effective FG% of 52.3 and to shoot 52.6% on two-point attempts. Both are the highest marks in the Sun Belt. We find it very interesting that the Mountaineers have been bet to favoritism tonight as they’ve lost the game outright the last four times they’ve been chalk. There were no regular season meetings this year, but Little Rock did sweep a season ago. Play on LITTLE ROCK AAA | |||||||
03-05-21 | UAB v. North Texas -5.5 | Top | 65-51 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NORTH TEXAS These teams are jockeying for position in Conference USA’s West Division. Though they have different records, UAB and North Texas are technically tied for second in the division, one game behind LA Tech (whose regular season is done). So if either team sweeps this weekend (they play again tomorrow), then they move into a first place tie. Adding to the level of motivation here is the fact both teams are off losses. They’d each been hot prior to suffering those defeats. UAB was the victim of some hot shooting against UTEP last Saturday as they gave up 96 points. The loss dropped the Blazers to 3-4 SU L7 games after they’d won six in a row. North Texas lost by 1 at Marshall on Saturday, but still covered and is on a 4-game ATS win streak and as well as 8-2 SU L10 games. We’re siding with the home team tonight. It’s not just that the Mean Green have an 8-1 SU record here in Denton. They are winning by an average of 22.6 points/game! UAB is not a good three-point shooting team while North Texas shoots an incredible 44.6% from behind the arc at home. Lay the short number! Play on NORTH TEXAS AAA | |||||||
03-04-21 | Texas v. Oklahoma UNDER 143 | Top | 69-65 | Win | 100 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER This entire three-game package has almost exclusively featured Big 12 teams and we’ve got two in the top 20 here. Oklahoma, who at one point this season defeated three straight top 10 teams, is limping into the regular season finale. The Sooners have dropped three in a row including two straight to rival Oklahoma State. It was 79-75 in Stillwater Monday as they let the Cowboys shoot 52.9% from the field. Both losses to the Pokes were by four points. Now they face a Texas team that’s off a 14-point win over Iowa State on Tuesday. The Longhorns also beat Kansas last week, which we know is impressive. The first time these teams played, the game went way Over the total (OU won 80-79 in Austin). We look for the rematch to feature a lot less scoring though. Both teams allow a pretty low field goal percentage for the year. Texas was held to 59 points by Texas Tech last Saturday. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
03-04-21 | Blue Jackets v. Stars OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Stars season has been impacted more than most by postponements. They’ve had eight (postponements) total including the first four games. Right now they are struggling mightily. They have just one victory in the last 10 games and are coming off two straight shutout losses to Tampa Bay. However, we do see them getting on the board tonight against Columbus. The Blue Jackets have given up 78 goals in just 24 games. Only a handful of teams have allowed more and they’ve all played more games. Since Dallas has played the fewest games in the league, their numbers are skewed. But they are averaging 3.4 goals scored per game at home. So they should get more than one tonight. We’re probably looking at least 2-3. Columbus should score multiple goals tonight as well. They just put four in the back of the net Tuesday vs. Detroit. Blue Jackets goalie Korpisalo has a poor .897 save percentage in five career starts against the Stars. Dallas goalie Khudobin allowed four goals on just 25 shots when he faced Columbus earlier this month. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
03-04-21 | UTEP v. Kansas -18 | Top | 62-67 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on KANSAS Kansas floundered a bit in January and as a result took a rare tumble out of the Top 25. But by punctuating a 7-2 February with a win over Baylor, there is no denying that Bill Self’s team is now peaking at the right time. The number of points per possession they’ve allowed over the last five games is the best defensive stretch by any team this year against “high-major teams.” Strangely, KU will close its regular season with a non-conference game against UTEP. The Miners probably regret adding this game to the schedule as they’ve got little chance of winning. While they’ve won four-straight Conference USA games, Florida International and Charlotte are not in the same class as Kansas. Having run the Big 12 gauntlet, this will be the easiest opponent the Jayhawks have played in a LONG time. UTEP isn’t a good road team. Earlier in the year, they lost by 30 at North Texas. Yikes. Play on KANSAS AAA | |||||||
03-04-21 | Nuggets -4.5 v. Pacers | Top | 113-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver is simply a lot better than Indiana right now. The Pacers only barely scraped by Cleveland last night, winning 114-111 thanks to a fourth quarter comeback. T.J. McConnell set a record with nine first half steals and the Pacers shot 56.6% as a team. Yet they still could only win by three against one of the worst teams in the league. Now, without rest, they are facing a team that just destroyed Milwaukee by 31 points - on the road! The Nuggets now look to make it four straight road wins heading into the All Star Break. They also won in Oklahoma City by 30 and we had them when they snuck by Chicago. There are only four teams in this league that have a better point differential than the Nuggets. Indiana is clearly not one of them. The Pacers are 0-7 ATS their last tries as an underdog and have failed to cover five straight overall. Their starters played heavy minutes last night. They certainly aren’t likely to shoot as well here as they did last night and that means trouble facing a team that has Nikola Jokic and is shooting almost 55% its L3 games. Play on DENVER AAA | |||||||
03-04-21 | Iowa State +17 v. Texas Tech | Top | 54-81 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on IOWA STATE Texas Tech has seemingly put a three-game losing streak behind them. The Red Raiders have gone 2-0 over the last five days, beating Texas 68-59 and TCU 69-49. They covered the spread in both of those wins and now are ranked #18 in the country. They’ve got a big game on deck, at Baylor on Sunday. But first they’ve got to round out the home portion of the schedule as Iowa State pays a visit to Lubbock tonight. It has been a tough year for the team from Ames. They have not won a single Big 12 game all season (0-16!) and haven’t tasted victory since before Christmas. But they’ve been close many times. They only lost by five at Baylor on Feb 23 and then by four against TCU on Saturday. A game vs. Texas on Tuesday was a 14-point loss. Since the beginning of February, half of the Cyclones' losses have been by seven points or fewer. So they are competing. We expect them to compete tonight in what should be a “flat spot” for a Texas Tech team that’s only 5-10 ATS in Big 12 games. Play on IOWA STATE AAA | |||||||
03-03-21 | Warriors -1 v. Blazers | Top | 106-108 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 10* on GOLDEN STATE Golden State is off a loss and Portland is off a win. But the road team (Golden State) opening as the favorite to win tonight should tell you a lot about this matchup. The Warriors had won three in a row (for the first time this season) before losing to the Lakers Sunday night. Meanwhile, Portland was on a four-game losing streak before beating Charlotte Monday. Injuries have certainly impacted both sides in 2020-21 but it feels as if Portland is hurting more right now with Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic and CJ McCollum all out. Of course, Golden State doesn’t have Klay Thompson, but Draymond Green will play Wednesday. These teams split a couple of games in Oakland last month, each winning in blowout fashion. Why we like the Warriors is that the Blazers simply cannot be trusted to play good defense. They are third to last in the league in number of points allowed per possession. We “smell” a big game coming from Steph Curry tonight as the Warriors are 8-3 ATS their L11 games as a favorite plus 6-2 ATS their L8 following a SU loss. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA | |||||||
03-03-21 | Capitals v. Bruins -136 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -136 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 9* on BOSTON The Bruins are only two points back of the Capitals in the East, thus a win tonight would pull them into a first place tie. We like their chances here on home ice. After a couple terrible games, Boston looked good in a 4-1 win over the Rangers on Sunday where they allowed only 21 shots on goal. Now they get to return home where they are 5-1 this season. The last time the Bruins skated in Beantown, they wound up scoring seven goals against the Flyers. While the Caps are on a three-game win streak, the last two wins were both against the Devils, who are not good. Having played two fewer games than Washington this season, the Bruins’ point percentage is actually higher and thus there should be no concern over the fact they are currently in third place. We still consider them the best team in this division and they are 58-26 when off a game where they allowed two or fewer goals. Washington is just 1-4 its last five as a road underdog. Play on BOSTON AAA | |||||||
03-03-21 | Clemson +2.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 54-64 | Loss | -107 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEMSON This will be Syracuse’s final regular season game. Clemson has one more, at home vs Pittsburgh on Saturday. The Tigers are on a five-game win streak, one of those coming against Syracuse as they beat them 78-61 as a three-point favorite in Death Valley on Feb 6th. The team’s last two wins have come against the bottom teams in the ACC, Wake Forest and Miami. They looked especially impressive against Wake, on the road, winning that one 60-39. Clemson continues to be one of the top defensive teams in the country, ranking 11th in efficiency. Syracuse just outlasted North Carolina 72-70 on Monday, but they are at a disadvantage here playing their second game in three days. Clemson last played Saturday. In the first half of the first meeting, Syracuse made only three field goals. So they are familiar with the Tigers’ defensive prowess. The Carrier Dome will not be enough for the Orange to overcome a tough opponent today. They are just 2-5 ATS this season coming off an ACC win. Clemson wants that double-bye in the ACC Tournament. Play on CLEMSON AAA | |||||||
03-02-21 | Canucks v. Jets -117 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WINNIPEG Yesterday’s 4-0 result here in Manitoba was not reflective of the recent form shown by either club. Vancouver had lost four in a row before winning here yesterday and that included two home games vs. the Jets. Winnipeg had won four in a row going into Monday, also having swept Montreal here on home ice. While the Canucks will certainly want to “return the favor” for what was done to them, we don’t see them pulling off a two-game sweep on the road. The Jets have only suffered two straight losses one time this season and they were against the same opponent. Other than Toronto, the Jets have been the most consistent team in the all-Canadian North Division. Vancouver has given up more goals than all but one other team. Yesterday was their first shutout of the season. This is a team with just three wins since the start of February. Winnipeg is 4-0 this year when seeking revenge for a home loss. Play on WINNIPEG AAA | |||||||
03-02-21 | Indiana +3.5 v. Michigan State | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on INDIANA Within one week, Michigan State pulled three consecutive upsets, two of them coming against top 5 teams (Ohio St, Illinois). However, the schedule finally appeared to catch up with them on Sunday when they fell behind Maryland 11-0 on their way to a 73-55 road loss. The Spartans have largely been overrated by the oddsmakers much of the season. They are 7-16 ATS and that record was obviously a lot worse before the three straight upsets. The first of the three upsets was not against a top 5 team, it was against Indiana. Sparty won that game in Bloomington 78-71 as a 6.5-point underdog. But they are not an underdog this time. This is a problem because as a favorite, MSU is a disastrous 2-11 ATS. Just how much the line has shifted for this rematch is a bit perplexing to us. Indiana badly needs this win to get on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble. They’ve lost three in a row and their second leading scorer is out. So that’s probably why the home team is favored in this one. But we’ve still got the Hoosiers rated as the better team and home court advantage doesn’t mean all that much. Grab the points. Play on INDIANA AAA | |||||||
03-02-21 | Hawks +4 v. Heat | Top | 94-80 | Win | 100 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA So Atlanta has made a coaching change, firing Lloyd Pierce after a very disappointing run where the team lost 11 of its last 15 games. The Hawks now sit 11th in the East, two games out of the 8th and three games back of Miami, the team they’ll face tonight. The Heat are trending in the opposite direction with a 6-0 straight up and against the spread record the last six games. They just beat Atlanta 109-99 on Sunday, which got Pierce fired. Before that, the Heat even beat the Jazz. But despite this recent form, the Heat still have a worse point differential than the Hawks this season. Miami has a losing record in conference play and a 5-14 record when losing the rebounding battle. Atlanta generally rebounds the basketball well. They actually outrebounded Miami Sunday. But Trae Young had a poor shooting night. Look for him to shoot better tonight and the rest of the team to play inspired following the change on the bench. Miami is just 3-7-1 ATS its last 11 as a home favorite. Play on ATLANTA AAA |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $868 |
Will Rogers | $491 |
William Burns | $415 |
Nick Parsons | $345 |
Joseph D'Amico | $282 |
Ross Benjamin | $255 |
Sean Murphy | $226 |
Tom Macrina | $149 |
Joey Tron | $113 |
ProSportsPicks | $107 |