Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-14-21 | Suns v. Bucks UNDER 221 | Top | 103-109 | Win | 100 | 59 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Both teams shot relatively well in Game 3. Phoenix, despite trailing by double digits most of the way and losing by 20 points, actually shot slightly better. They finished the game at 48.2% while Milwaukee was at 47.8%. The Bucks attempted seven more shots total and made three more. They were also more effective from three, going 14 of 36 while Phoenix was only 9 of 31. We had predicted the Suns wouldn’t come close to making 20 threes again (like they did in Game 2) and sure enough we were correct about that. The Bucks were also better from the free throw line, a series first. While the Bucks winning Game 3 was never in doubt, the total came down to the wire and the result (Over or Under) very much depended on what number you got. We believe Game 4 will be the lowest scoring game in the series to date. Both these teams are giving up less than 105 points/game in the playoffs. Giannis Antetokounmpo, seemingly no longer injured, is coming off back to back 40+ point games. Don’t think we’ll see a third in a row though. During the playoffs, the Bucks are 5-1-1 Under when down in a series. The Under is also 7-3-1 L11 home games. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
07-11-21 | Suns v. Bucks -4 | Top | 100-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The Bucks’ backs are against the wall here as they are down 0-2 in the best of seven series. But they now get to be the home team. This is Milwaukee’s first time hosting an NBA Finals game since 1974! So expect a “rocking atmosphere” with Giannis and company delivering a win. Antetokounmpo did all he could in Game 2 with 42 points. Obviously he’s not bothered by the injury. He needs more help from his teammates and should get it at home. As we’ve been saying throughout the Bucks playoff run, both Middleton and Holiday always seem to shoot better at home. They were a combined 12 for 37 in Game 2, so improvement from them is a virtual guarantee. Phoenix also won’t make 20 three pointers again as they did in the last game. Dario Sarkic has been lost for the remainder of the series and Torrey Craig, a key bench player for the Suns, got injured in the second half of Game 2. Milwaukee obviously cannot afford to lose here as they would be in an 0-3 hole that no NBA team has ever gotten out of. Fortunate for them is they are 7-1 straight up and against the spread in home playoff games. The Bucks may be 0-5 SU and ATS the last five meetings with the Suns, but four of the games were in Phoenix. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
07-11-21 | Rockies v. Padres -173 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -173 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SAN DIEGO San Diego had no answers at the plate for German Marquez and thus lost 3-0 to Colorado last night. Marquez is good, but that’s an embarrassing loss for the Padres to a team that is 8-34 on the road. It was also their first time losing to the Rockies this season. With no Marquez to worry about Sunday, we will take the Padres again as Jon Gray, who starts today’s game for the Rockies, has an 0-6 team start record on the road. The current road trip is the 1st time all season that Colorado has won multiple times. They have NEVER won consecutive road games at any point in 2021. So this one seems pretty easy. Look for the Padres offense to supply Ryan Weathers with more than enough support. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA | |||||||
07-11-21 | White Sox -172 v. Orioles | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 7* on CHI WHITE SOX As you would have expected, the White Sox have not had much trouble with the Orioles this weekend. They won the first two games at Camden Yards by scores of 12-1 and 8-3. The AL Central leaders have won four in a row and have already clinched the biggest division lead in all of baseball going into the All Star Break. So you should expect them to finish the sweep Sunday. Baltimore is guaranteed the worst record among American League teams in the first half. They are 28-60 and a lock to finish in last place once again in the AL East. It’s not just the last two days where Chicago has had Baltimore’s number. They are 6-0 in the season series. The Orioles have only managed 11 runs in those six losses. All things considered, the White Sox should be a much bigger favorite. Dylan Cease will start Sunday. He did struggle on Monday vs. Minnesota. But he did not struggle vs. Baltimore back on May 27th. There he matched a season-high with 10 strikeouts while allowing one run and four hits. The White Sox have scored 38 runs off Orioles pitching in the six games so far and are likely to put many more on the board today against Spenser Watkins, who is making just his second career start. “We’re in dire need of rotation help,” said manager Brandon Hyde after Saturday’s loss. Don’t think Watkins gives it to them. Play on CHICAGO WHITE SOX AAA | |||||||
07-10-21 | Rockies v. Padres -178 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -178 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO This is a mismatch. San Diego beat Colorado 4-2 on Friday. It was the second straight day where the Padres rallied to win. Last night wasn’t nearly as exciting as the 9-8 win against Washington on Thursday. That one saw them come back from an 8-0 deficit, tying the largest rally in team history. The Padres have now won nine straight home games over the Rockies, who are a miserable 7-34 on the road this year. So the fact that SD had to rally to win last night doesn’t scare us at all. Expect them not to fall into an early hole tonight because of the fact Joe Musgrove is starting. Musgrove, responsible for one of MLB’s no-hitters this year, continues to pace the rotation with a 0.97 WHIP. He has a 2.89 ERA at home. When Musgrove faced the Rockies back on 5/19 (it was here in SD), he shut them out for seven innings, allowed just two hits and had 11 strikeouts. The Padres’ bullpen was pretty flawless last night. So when they are called upon here, there won’t be any drop off from Musgrove. The Rockies score just 2.8 runs/game away from home, a big reason for that terrible record of theirs. German Marquez has pitched very well of late for Colorado. But he has a 1-5 team start record on the road. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA | |||||||
07-10-21 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Yankees turned in a very impressive victory on Friday night as four pitchers combined to turn in a three-hit shutout of the Astros. That’s no small feat. Houston scores more than every other team in baseball - at 5.5 runs/game. So it’s difficult to imagine them getting shut down again. This time, Houston must face Gerrit Cole, but he’s 0-3 in his last three starts and his ERA and WHIP are 6.46 and 1.63. The Over is also 3-0 in those three starts. It’s 5-1 in Cole’s last six starts. He’s really struggled in the last two, giving up 10 runs in 8.3 innings. Cole has allowed at least one home run in six straight starts, a rather dubious streak. The Yankees, who have not gone Under in back to back games this month, will face Zack Greinke. Again, this may sound challenging from an offensive point of view. But the Over is 13-5 in Greinke starts in 2021, 8-1 at home. He has a 5.26 ERA at home. Before yesterday, the previous seven Yankees games averaged 11.0 total runs scored. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
07-10-21 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 9* on OVER Our only losing selection on Friday was the Over in this matchup. We’re doubling down on Saturday. Atlanta put up five runs yesterday, which we expected. But we did not see Miami getting blanked. The Marlins could manage just two hits against Charlie Morton, even though it was the fourth time they’d faced him in 2021. Expect them to fare better at the plate this afternoon vs. Max Fried. Fried has yet to defeat Miami in eight career tries. He’s 0-3 with a 6.19 ERA. Two of those losses have come this year as he’s allowed 11 runs in 10 innings. Also, Fried just gave up six runs in his last start. The start before that, however, was a 20-2 win. His last three starts have all gone Over. He has a 6.65 ERA and 1.65 WHIP on the road. Trevor Rogers is having a great rookie season for the Marlins … except when he faces the Braves. He has a 7.00 ERA in two career starts against them. This is a pretty low total for a matchup where one of the starters looks shaky and where you have to figure one of the teams (Atlanta) is going to score 4-5 runs. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
07-09-21 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER These teams just met last weekend. All three games were decided by one run. The first two - a 1-0 win for the Braves and then a 3-2 win for the Marlins - were low-scoring games. Then the Braves took the series with an 8-7 win on the 4th of July. Their next series, which saw them drop two of three to Pittsburgh, didn’t go as well. But they did score 14 runs in the final game Wednesday. Miami just wrapped up a series against the Dodgers that went much better than expected. Though they lost yesterday 6-1 (we had the Dodgers), Miami won the first three games of that series and did so by scoring 16 runs. We are predicting today’s game to be pretty high-scoring. We’ve got our concerns about Braves starter Morton, who is 0-1 with a 7.63 ERA in three starts vs. Miami this year. Four different catchers have caught Morton in 2021 and the one who had been doing the best job was just sent back to Triple-A. In a rematch from Sunday, Morton is once again matched up with Thompson for Miami. Thompson has just five big league starts under his belt, but two were against Atlanta. So the Braves hitters should be more comfortable facing him this time. The Over is 17-3-2 in Atlanta’s last 22 Friday games. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
07-09-21 | Phillies v. Red Sox -118 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BOSTON We like Boston here as Thursday was an off-day for them while Philadelphia had to wrap up a four-game series with Chicago. The off day isn’t the only reason we like the Red Sox though. They are 27-17 both at home and on the road and are the current AL East leaders with a 54-34 record. They did lose Tuesday and Wednesday to the Angels. But this is a team that’s dominated Interleague play so far (a 10-2 record) and is 36-19 in night games. They also haven’t lost three in a row since early June. Their longest losing streak all year has been three games and that’s happened only three times. Since starting the season 0-3, the Red Sox are 8-2 when off back to back losses. So it’s a good spot to take them today. The team Philadelphia just took three of four from (Cubs) is in a terrible way right now. The Phillies are still just 18-27 on the road. Vince Velasquez has a 1-3 TSR his last four starts overall and his last two starts on the road have seen him surrender 10 runs in seven innings. Garrett Richards has also struggled for Boston, but we trust he’ll get better run support in this one. The team is 4-2 in Richards’ last six starts. Play on BOSTON AAA | |||||||
07-09-21 | White Sox -131 v. Orioles | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO This is a shockingly low price considering the two teams involved. You’d have to consider the White Sox as one of the top American League teams. They’ve basically led the AL Central the whole way and currently enjoy a 7.5 game lead over the rest of their division. That’s the largest lead for any current division leader. They have a 51-33 record and a +99 run differential. They did not play Thursday after taking two in a row from the Twins. Baltimore is the worst team in the American League. They are 30 games under .500 and have a -120 run differential. They got rained out yesterday, which probably spared them another loss. Even with several players still injured, the White Sox have a stronger lineup than the Orioles. They swept them back on Memorial Day Weekend, taking all four games at Guaranteed Rate Field by multiple runs. Look for more of the same Friday. Dallas Keuchel is off a rough start, but has a 3.23 ERA in nine previous starts vs. Baltimore. Jorge Lopez, the Orioles starter for this game, hasn’t been good at all. He has a 4-13 team start record and is 0-5 his L5 starts. Play on CHICAGO AAA | |||||||
07-08-21 | Bucks v. Suns UNDER 219.5 | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Game 1 went Over the total, just as we predicted. In a surprising plot twist, Giannis Antetokounmpo was cleared to play right before tipoff. He scored 20 points and grabbed 17 rebounds. We expected a high volume of threes from the Bucks and they delivered on that, attempting 36 and making 16. Kris Middleton led the team with 29 points. But it wasn’t enough to overcome 32 points from Chris Paul in his NBA Finals debut as the Suns won 118-105. Phoenix may not have been as productive from behind the arc, but they were 25 of 26 from the free throw line. Deandre Ayton also had a better game than Giannis - statistically speaking - with 22 points and 19 rebounds. But there was a touch of bad news for the Suns coming off their first Finals win in 28 years. Dario Saric tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the series. So Monty Williams is going to have to reconfigure his rotation. Expect Paul’s scoring to decrease in Game 2. Ayton now doesn’t have a backup. Overall, six Suns scored in double figures in Game 1. That’s probably not happening again. For Milwaukee, it remains to be seen if Antetokounmpo can play as well as he did in Game 1. Middleton, like Paul for Phoenix, will likely see his scoring decrease in Game 2. The Under is 8-1 for Milwaukee when they are off a straight up loss. The one exception was Game 5 vs. Atlanta, ironically the first of two games without Giannis. They are also 8-2 Under this season when on a streak of three or more consecutive Overs. The Bucks’ last three games have all gone Over. Not this one. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
07-08-21 | Tigers v. Twins UNDER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER A new series starts Thursday with two teams at/near the bottom of the AL Central. Minnesota has been one of the biggest disappointments of the first half. They are in last place with a 35-50 record and could end up being sellers at the trade deadline. Only Arizona, who is having a disastrous year, has dropped more units at the betting window than have the Twins. They’ve lost seven of nine including each of the past two days to the White Sox. Detroit has been surprisingly competitive of late with wins in six of its last eight. They just beat Texas 5-3 yesterday afternoon. The thing about the Tigers though is you can’t really trust their offense. They are down among the lowest scoring American League teams. Lucky for them then that the Twins have scored just one run each of their last two games. The respective starters for Thursday - Tarik Skubal for Detroit and J.A. Happ for Minnesota - don’t exactly have the most sparkling numbers. But we expect both to pitch well in this spot. Both are lefties. Neither team is great vs. left-handed pitching. The Tigers are on a 10-3-2 run to the Under when facing a team that scored two runs or less in its last game. After a recent offensive surge and the Over going 7-0-2 their past nine games, they are due for a bit of a decline. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
07-08-21 | Dodgers -151 v. Marlins | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA DODGERS The Dodgers have had their problems with Miami in this series, losing all three games so far. They’ll look to avoid the sweep this afternoon behind Jose Urias. He is 10-3 in his 17 starts (13-4 TSR) with a 3.81 ERA and 1.067 WHIP. Numbers on the road - where he has gone 7-2 - are even better. The first two losses of the series saw the Dodgers go down by one run each time. Yesterday was 9-6 final decided on a walk-off HR by Jesus Aguilar. The Marlins have now walked off two days in a row. So it’s not as if the Dodgers have necessarily been dominated, or are even playing poorly. Remember that this is the team that carries the best run differential in the National League (+113) and is one of only four teams - in all of baseball - with a win percentage of .600 or greater. Miami is better than its record, but still in last place in the NL East. July has been the worst month for starter Sandy Alcantara in terms of ERA (4.95). That’s for his career. The Dodgers had won nine in a row coming into this series. Only two times this season have they lost four in a row. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
07-07-21 | Yankees v. Mariners OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The Yankees beat the Mariners last night by a score of 12-1. That made us happy as we were on the road team. The Yankees were very desperate for a win as they are 4th in the American League East and had previously dropped seven of nine games. Starting the series with such an emphatic win is something they hope leads to a strong final week before the All Star Break. For the Mariners, blowout losses are not uncommon. They have a -53 run differential on the year. We point that out because their record is 45-41. The 34-52 Rangers have a -51 run differential. So Seattle is lucky to even be in Wild Card contention. Tonight’s game may not end up being so lopsided, but we anticipate it being just as high scoring. In his last four starts, the Yankees’ Domingo German has allowed 18 runs in 15.3 innings. That’s more runs than Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi has allowed in his last nine starts combined. But Kikuchi is facing a team that just put 12 runs on the board last night. The Yankees are 5-1 Over their last six games. Seattle is 6-1 Over after a loss. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
07-07-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) Turns out we were wrong to count out the Canadiens in Game 4 as they stayed alive by winning in overtime, 3-2. We all know the trend with Tampa Bay -- they are 14-0 SU the last two postseasons after a loss. Plus they are now back at home, so it’s no shock that they are heavily favored to end the series tonight. But we’ll grab the +1.5 with the Habs on the puck line as this one shouldn’t get out of hand. They outshot TB in two of the four games and in the series. What’s interesting is they were outshot in Game 4 34-21. But the two previous games saw them end up with a +25 edge in shots on goal. It was nice to see goalie Carey Price have a bounce back game Monday night. You’ve gotta figure he’ll be on the top of his game again tonight. Price still owns a .922 save percentage in the playoffs. The Lightning were an uncharacteristic 0 for 6 on the power play in the last game, but we don’t see Montreal giving them so many chances again. Line changes worked for Montreal in Game 4, so expect the same lineup. Even though everyone is counting them out, don’t be surprised if the Habs win again tonight. We don’t foresee an outcome worse than a one-goal defeat here. Play MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA | |||||||
07-07-21 | Phillies -131 v. Cubs | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -131 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHILADELPHIA The Phillies have taken the first two games at Wrigley Field and the Cubs have now lost 11 in a row overall. Yesterday’s final score ended up being 15-10, but the Phillies initially led 7-0 and 15-4. That was after a 13-3 win on Monday. Those kind of scores and an 11-game losing streak pretty much “paints the picture” and is all you really need to know about what’s taking place in the Windy City right now. In 17 of the last 22 games, the Cubs have not scored more than three runs. Yesterday was only the third instance (in those last 22 games) of them scoring more than four runs and that’s only because of some late, meaningless damage in the final three innings. We don’t see the Cubs doing much offensively early in tonight’s game as they are set to face Zack Wheeler. Over 17 starts, Wheeler has a 2.05 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He has not allowed a single run in four of his last five starts and all four saw him go at least six innings. The task for Cubs starter Alec Mills is tough as the Phillies have homered eight times in two games. The Cubs have been outscored 83-35 during this losing streak. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA | |||||||
07-07-21 | Tigers v. Rangers -147 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 20 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TEXAS We went with the Rangers yesterday, even though they had a starter (Dane Dunning) who came in with a 4-12 team start record. They beat the Tigers 10-5. So we’ve got little hesitation selecting them again today as they hand Kyle Gibson (6-0, 1.98 ERA and 1.03 WHIP) the ball for the series finale. Gibson has undoubtedly been the Rangers best starter in 2021. In addition to having not dropped a single decision, he has 12 quality starts to his name and is working on a streak of nine straight (starts) where he’s allowed two runs or less. At home, Gibson has an 8-0 TSR, 1.09 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. He is the American League’s ERA leader. Detroit’s leadoff hitter is injured and they could only muster up five hits yesterday. We think they’ve been pretty lucky to have scored 12 runs in the two games so far at Arlington. Casey Mize, who is being limited to no more than three innings, will start this game for the Tigers. He’s going to have to deal with John Hicks, who has four homers in four games since being called up. Texas is 7-1 L8 as home favorites and has the clear edge in starting pitching today. Play on TEXAS AAA | |||||||
07-06-21 | Yankees -144 v. Mariners | Top | 12-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES The Yankees could really use a win here as they are stuck in fourth place in the AL East and only a game over .500. They split a doubleheader with the Mets on Sunday, but have dropped seven of nine overall. Seattle keeps defying the odds with a better than .500 record as they’ve given up a lot more runs than they have scored this season. They have a better record than the Yankees, but the oddsmakers are not fooled by that and neither are we. A big problem for the Yankees recently has been the bullpen, specifically Aroldis Chapman. But we like the matchup of Jameson Taillon going against a Seattle lineup that hits only .207 at home. Taillon has won his last two starts, both in blowout fashion. There was an 8-1 win over Kansas City and 11-3 win over the Angels. Taillon has been much better when pitching outside the division (as those last two starts show). Justus Sheffield has not had a good year for the Mariners and things appear to be getting worse as his ERA and WHIP are now 5.75 and 1.70. He’s made one career start vs. the Yankees and it did not go well. He allowed five runs in 4.3 innings. The Yankees are 21-5 their last 26 games in Seattle. Play on NY YANKEES AAA | |||||||
07-06-21 | Bucks v. Suns OVER 218.5 | Top | 105-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The obvious story coming into these NBA Finals is the health of Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo. Milwaukee probably can’t win the series without him. But in the last two games, they have proven they can at least score with Giannis on the bench. Putting up 118 and 123 points was impressive. Consider that those last two games vs. Atlanta both rank among the Bucks’ top five highest scoring games this entire postseason run. Giannis is doubtful for G1 (despite “good progress”), so we’ll just assume he isn’t going to play. Based on those last two games, we do think Milwaukee will score enough to help send this one Over the total. In Game 6 vs. the Hawks, they knocked down 17 of 45 three-point attempts. We envision a high volume of three-point attempts tonight. Middleton and Holliday have certainly proven they can pick up the slack when Giannis is out. Phoenix scored 130 when it closed out the Clippers last Wednesday. They are 7-0 Over this season after a game in which they scored at least 130 points. The last three times they have faced Milwaukee, the Suns have scored a minimum of 125 points. The Bucks give up about 114 points/game on the road. That seems like a reasonable number for Phoenix to hit tonight and if they do, this one almost certainly goes Over the total. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
07-06-21 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER The first place White Sox came into Monday with a 14.5 game lead over the last place Twins. A big reason for that was an 8-1 head to head record in the season series. But the AL Central leaders could not get the bats going until it was too late last night and ended up losing 8-5. It was the third straight loss for the White Sox, tied for their second longest losing streak of the season. They have gone Over in eight straight games, but injuries are mounting and will begin to take a toll on this lineup. Jose Berrios is who will be starting today for Minnesota. He’s really had the White Sox number in the past. Berrios is 12-2 with a 2.77 ERA in 18 previous starts against them. He may not be as good as Bailey Ober was last night, but Berrios hasn’t given up more than four runs in any start this year. We don’t expect to see another eight-run effort from the Twins tonight as they face All-Star Carlos Rodon. The numbers for Rodon are better on the road than at home. He and Berrios faced off last week and while that game also ended up being an 8-5 final (but in favor of the White Sox), this one should feature a lot less scoring. Rodon has allowed one or no runs in 10 of his 14 starts this year. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
07-06-21 | Tigers v. Rangers -170 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TEXAS The Rangers got beat 7-3 in Monday’s series opener. Three errors and a failure to really get anything going against Tigers starter Wily Peralta doomed them. But we think they’ll bounce back on Tuesday when they get to face the struggling Jose Urena. June was very unkind to Urena as he went 0-4 with a 12.50 ERA. Most damning of all is that he pitched a total of just 18 innings and gave up 28 runs! Urena did not factor into the decision the last time he pitched, a game the Tigers won 9-4 in Cleveland. The reason Urena did not factor into the decision is he allowed FOUR home runs! He was quite fortunate that all four were solo shots. Texas homered twice with two outs in the bottom of the ninth last night. Hopefully, they can homer in more meaningful spots tonight. On the mound, Dane Dunning is still having his innings limited. But he did toss four scoreless innings last week vs. Oakland. Dunning has a 79-27 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season. One Tigers’ hitter that he won’t have to worry about is leadoff man Daz Cameron, who sprained his toe before Monday’s game. His replacement Akil Baddoo went 0 for 5 in the leadoff spot last night. Play on TEXAS AAA | |||||||
07-05-21 | Lightning -147 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -147 | 37 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB The Montreal Canadiens made an improbable run to the Stanley Cup Finals. They have been the underdog in every one of their playoff games, rallied from a 3-1 series deficit to oust Toronto and also defeated heavily favored Vegas along the way. But it would appear as if the Lightning are too much for them. Tampa Bay needs one more win to repeat as champions and we think they’ll make this series a sweep on Monday. The first three games were all decided by two more goals with the Lightning outscoring the Habs 14-5. It was a series-high six goals in Game 3, proving that they don’t need the home ice advantage to win. Tampa Bay has won 14 of its last 16 games against Montreal. They have not even trailed for a single second in this series. The Canadiens had the lowest point percentage of any of the 16 playoff teams and were the only one to post a negative goal differential in the regular season. It really is a bit miraculous that they even made it this far. Goalie Carey Price has seen his save percentage plummet to .835 in this series. The NHL season ends on Monday night. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
07-05-21 | Reds v. Royals OVER 10 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Reds are one of the higher scoring NL teams, so with the DH in play here in Kansas City it stands to reason they will have no trouble scoring runs off Royals pitching. Now Cincy has been winning in relatively low-scoring fashion recently. They’ve had to put no more than three runs on the board in each of the last three wins. But tonight they’re up against Mike Minor, who has an 8.64 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in his last three starts. Minor gave up five runs to Boston in his last start. That was after giving up nine to Texas. The Over is 6-2 in all Minor home starts this year. But also with poor numbers of late is Reds starter Gutierrez. He has a 8.22 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in his last three starts. He just gave up six runs to San Diego his last time out. The Royals had scored a combined 13 runs the previous two days before losing 6-2 Sunday. They are giving up 5.1 runs/game for the year. Meanwhile, on average, Reds’ games are already the second highest scoring in the league (trailing only the Angels). Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
07-05-21 | Dodgers -153 v. Marlins | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -153 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAD Miami is a team we faded on Sunday and they ended up losing 8-7 (in 10 innings) to Atlanta. In the analysis, we talked about how the Marlins had been held to three runs or less in 12 of their previous 16 games. Well, they broke out for seven (runs) yesterday and still lost. The Dodgers are a team we routinely take and that’s for good reason. They are one of baseball’s best. They made it a four-game sweep of Washington on Sunday with a 5-1 win. That was LA’s ninth win in a row overall. So they are firing on all cylinders right now as they send Walker Buehler to the mound this evening. Buehler has an 11-5 team start record this year. Personally, he’s gone 8-1 and has a 0.90 WHIP. His numbers are a little bit better on the road, but regardless of where he’s pitched, Buehler is working on a streak of nine consecutive quality starts. Trevor Rogers looks like a fine option for Miami but the problem is he’s up against a juggernaut. The Dodgers offense averages a full run more per game than the Marlins. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
07-04-21 | Giants -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SF -1.5 Arizona did win a game in this series (Thursday) but wasted little time in reverting back to their “normal ways” by losing each of the last two days. It was a non-competitive affair on Friday (Giants won 11-4) before a 6-5 final last night. The Giants actually needed a late 2-run homer from pinch-hitter Austin Slater to win the game. But while this series has been a bit more competitive than the Giants expected, the season as a whole paints a picture where you’ll want to be on them tonight. They are 8-1 vs. the Diamondbacks in 2021 and 16-3 against them the last three years. Arizona has the worst record in baseball and a loss tonight would leave them 40 games below .500. They’ve lost a staggering 49 of their last 57 games! We all know about the struggles on the road, but they are also just 5-21 their last 26 home games. Has Caleb Smith (Sunday’s scheduled starter) pitched well for them of late? Yes he has. But he’s received little to no run support. The Giants are in first place with a 52-30 record, which has them 30.5 games up on Arizona! They’ve given up 177 fewer runs! Part of the reason for that is Anthony DeSclafani, who is 8-3 with a 2.91 ERA. Each of his last five starts, DeSclafani has allowed three runs or less. He’s allowed only seven runs total (and 19 hits) in 32 innings of work. This seems to be a “no-brainer” and we will even lay the -1.5 on the run line. Play SAN FRANCISCO -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA | |||||||
07-04-21 | Marlins v. Braves -185 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA Miami (35-46) isn’t having a good season but they are 6-3 vs. Atlanta following a 3-2 win last night. The Braves did have more hits Saturday. Neither team has done much scoring in this particular series as the Braves won the opener 1-0 on Friday. Last night proved to be their sixth failed attempt at getting to .500 on the year. Still they’ve won 10 of 17 and three of their last four games. Charlie Morton on the mound means the Marlins probably aren’t going to score many runs today either. Morton has a 1.31 ERA and 0.58 WHIP his last three starts. All three starts were quality as Morton allowed just three runs (all in the last one) and nine hits. He had 25 strikeouts and only three walks. A 20 ⅔ scoreless inning streak was snapped in his last start. The Braves actually lost that game, 4-3 to the Mets, though Morton did not factor into the decision. He has a 6-2 team start record in his last eight starts. Miami has been held to three runs or less in 12 of its previous 16 games. So all we need here is for the Braves’ hitters to break out to a reasonable degree and we like their chances as they are averaging 5.4 runs/gamme at home. Zach Thompson has just four starts under his belt and this will be Atlanta’s second time seeing him. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
07-03-21 | Cardinals v. Rockies OVER 12 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -119 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It was a pretty misleading final score last night at Coors Field. The Cardinals won 9-3, but scored six runs in the top of the 10th. Still, while the game ended up higher scoring than what it “should have been” (still went Under), this is Coors Field and plenty of runs should always be expected. The Rockies, as is usually the case every year, lead all teams in runs per game at home. This year, the number is 5.8 runs/game. You can count on Colorado scoring more tonight than they did Friday as they will face Wade LeBlanc, who has made two less than impressive starts for St. Louis. The Rockies’ last six games have all gone Under, which is atypical, especially since the last five have all taken place at home. But they’re not facing the Pirates anymore (who they swept in the last series and shutout twice). The Cardinals should put up runs here against Kyle Freeland, who has a 6.54 ERA and 1.80 WHIP. While Freeland has allowed just one run total in his last two starts, those were against Pittsburgh and Seattle, perhaps the two weakest offenses in MLB. After a string of low-scoring games here, expect the typical Coors Field affair on Saturday night. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
07-03-21 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 216 | Top | 118-107 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER In the last two games of this series, we have seen both teams deliver a win without the respective superstars. With Trae Young out, Atlanta shot 50.6% in a 110-88 win in Game 4. Young also missed Game 5, as did Giannis Antetokounmpo for the Bucks. This time it was “the others” on the Bucks stepping up. The new starting five combined for all but 17 of Milwaukee’s 123 points in the win Thursday night. Whether it was Atlanta without Young in Game 4 or Milwaukee without Giannis in Game 5, the home team responded better to not having their superstar both times. It remains to be seen if either will play in Game 6. But regardless, we think the total is too low. It opened more than 10 points lower from where it closed in Game 2. That makes sense due to the uncertain statuses of Young and Giannis. But the supporting casts have proven themselves capable of picking up the slack. It’ll probably be Atlanta’s turn tonight. They averaged 111 points/game in the two without Young. Milwaukee is averaging 112.4 points/game in the series. We see both teams getting to 110 tonight. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
07-03-21 | Dodgers -189 v. Nationals | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LA You get the feeling that if Washington was going to beat the Dodgers this weekend, yesterday was the best shot. They had Max Scherzer on the mound and a 3-1 lead through six. But the bullpen really let the Nationals down on Friday, giving up a nine-run 7th. While it’s true that we were on the Nats last night, Clayton Kershaw going here for the Dodgers means it’s time to “abandon ship” and get on the other side in a hurry. Kershaw is having another solid year with a 3.25 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The team is only 10-7 in his 17 starts, but easily won the last one (9-1 over the Cubs) with Kershaw striking out 13 and allowing one run in eight innings. That was his fourth straight quality start. The Dodgers have now won seven in a row overall and the five runs given up yesterday were the most in any game during the streak. They’ve allowed only 15 runs total in the seven games. The Nationals' task of scoring runs against Kershaw is now even harder as they lost Kyle Schwarber to an injury yesterday. Schwarber had homered 16 times in June, a franchise record. Washington’s starter Paolo Espino has looked good so far, but it’s a small sample size (just three starts) and he hasn’t faced a lineup like the Dodgers (#1 in NL in scoring) yet. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
07-03-21 | England v. Ukraine UNDER 2.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -125 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER England has yet to concede a single goal at Euro 2020. No other side can say that about themselves. Taking it further, there have been only four goals scored in all four matches involving The Three Lions and two of those came in the Round of 16 win over Germany. England has held each of its four opponents to tournament lows in shots on goals. So that’s the task ahead of Ukraine, who is in a World Cup/Euro Cup quarterfinal for just the second time in its history. They defeated Sweden to get here, getting the game-winning goal in the 121st minute. Sweden was playing with 10 men, if you recall. Ukraine has scored twice in three of its four matches, but that’s including an added time goal and facing North Macedonia. They did get blanked by Austria. We don’t see them getting on the scoresheet Saturday. But we can’t trust England to do so either, at least inside of 90 minutes. So Under is the correct call for this quarterfinal matchup. England has not allowed a goal in their last 540 minutes of competition. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
07-03-21 | Denmark +117 v. Czech Republic | Top | 2-1 | Win | 117 | 21 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENMARK As we said right before the last time they hit the pitch, Denmark has the potential to be an all-time great story in Euro 2020. We all know the terrible situation that occurred in their opening match with Christian Eriksen. On top of that, losing their first two matches seemed to doom any chance Denmark had of getting past the group stage. But they defied the odds, thanks to a dominant 4-1 win over Russia and some other things going their way. We liked them going into the Round of 16 vs. Wales and boy did they deliver there, winning 4-0. For a team that’s won two and lost two so far, Denmark has played far better than you might think. They’ve allowed the fewest number of shots (24) and expected goals (2.1) in the competition. At the same time, they are second in shots themselves (74) and goals scored (9). They are 4th in expected goals (7.8). Their +51 shot differential trails only Italy. They’ve gotten off at least 16 shots in all four matches while never allowing more than 11. Czech Republic is off an impressive 2-0 win against the Netherlands, but they are much lower (among quarterfinalists) in shots and expected goals. We wouldn’t want to be caught betting against this Denmark side right now as they are playing for Christian Eriksen and are highly motivated. Play on DENMARK AAA | |||||||
07-02-21 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER The White Sox just swept a series against another division rival (Minnesota). All three games also went Over. The team’s win streak and Over streak is actually now at four, going back to a 7-5 win against Seattle on Sunday. In each of the four games, Chicago scored seven or more runs. Not sure they’ll go that high today. But they’ll score enough to help another game go Over the total. They average 5.0 runs/game on the road. The number here is pretty low considering how hot the White Sox have been at the plate of late. Also, Detroit totaled 16 runs in a doubleheader sweep of Cleveland on Wednesday. They had yesterday off. Lance Lynn, who had been having an outstanding year for Chicago, has struggled some of late. His ERA in the last three starts is 5.54 and his WHIP is 1.54. The team is 0-4 in his last four starts. He’s certainly owed some run support though as the White Sox have scored only nine runs in those last four starts. We think he’ll get the requisite run support here. But also look for Detroit to put some runs on the board. Casey Mize will start for the Tigers on Friday. 13 of his 15 starts have stayed Under, but we’ll buck that trend as this will be the third time the White Sox have faced him in 2021. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
07-02-21 | Brewers v. Pirates +1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PIT +1.5 Milwaukee has really taken control of the Central, thanks to a nine-game win streak. It also helps that the Cubs have lost six in a row. After sweeping the Cubs over the weekend and outscoring them 31-12, the Brewers beat the Pirates 7-2 yesterday. That was their fourth straight win over the Bucs dating back to a sweep in Milwaukee last month. The Pirates are obviously having a terrible year. Yesterday was their fourth loss in a row. They’ve scored only four runs in the four games. But don’t be surprised to see them “shock the world” on Friday. Given all the above info, this line is a bit of a shock. We’ve got reason to be a little apprehensive, so that’s why we’re going with the run line. Pittsburgh starter Brubaker is pretty good though and is capable of pitching his team to the win today. Brubaker has a 0.921 WHIP at home this year and a 0.962 WHIP in his last three starts overall. The fact his TSR is 0-3 in those last three starts while Milwaukee’s Adrian Houser has a 3-0 TSR his last three starts (despite a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP) seems unjust. Houser is 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA in eight career appearances vs. Pittsburgh, five of those being starts. Brubaker beat Houser earlier in the year when he allowed just one run in six innings. Play PITTSBURGH +1.5 AAA | |||||||
07-02-21 | Dodgers v. Nationals -103 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON This might be as good a time as any to fade the Dodgers. We are getting Max Scherzer starting at home for the Nationals at a very discounted price. Los Angeles did win Thursday’s series opener 6-2. But that was a rain-shortened game. It was called after five innings and the difference was a Muncy grand slam for the Dodgers. Washington had the early 2-1 lead going into the fifth. While it was the sixth straight win for the Dodgers, all of them before yesterday were at home. The Nationals came into this series on their own four-game win streak and 14-3 in their last 17 games. As good as Urias has been for LA, Scherzer has better numbers. Scherzer has made 10 straight starts without giving up more than two earned runs. In the month of June, he went 3-0 and allowed just three runs in four starts. He only allowed 12 hits! Let’s not forget about the other “hot” player for the Nats, that being Kyle Schwarber. He’d homered 12 times in the previous 10 games before yesterday. He didn’t get a full nine innings to extend that streak. Urias has allowed at least one home run in seven straight starts. This is a big revenge game for the home team as they are 0-4 vs. the Dodgers this season. If there were ever a spot where you’d take them to beat the reigning World Series champs, it would be this one. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
07-01-21 | Hawks +2 v. Bucks | Top | 112-123 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATL The insane injury bug that has seemingly bitten every single team in these playoffs has struck again, this time claiming Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Bucks. Milwaukee had been the one team to stay pretty much injury free this postseason, but now things have really gone sideways for them. They were terrible in Game 4, especially after Antetokounmpo went down. They were outscored by 14 after the injury and ended up losing 110-88. With Antetokounmpo doubtful for Game 5 and his entire future status in doubt, there is simply no way we could take the Bucks in this spot. Atlanta has proven they can win without Trae Young, doing so by 22 in the last game. Young is more likely to play tonight than Antetokounmpo and his return would be a real nice luxury to have. The Hawks are 3-0 SU and ATS this season off a game where they allowed 90 or less points. Lou Williams was tremendous starting in place of Young as he scored 21 points and had eight assists in Game 4. The Hawks are also 15-5-1 ATS off their last 21 double digit wins. Getting points against an Antetokounmpo-less Bucks team seems like a steal, even if Young does not play. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
07-01-21 | Mets -157 v. Braves | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -157 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYM We shouldn’t have to sell you too much on the idea of betting Jacob deGrom. The Mets have won the last eight times he has started and he hasn’t allowed a run in five of those outings. He’s allowed only four runs total in the eight starts and only six all season! Yes, this is an all-time great season as deGrom has a record-setting 0.69 ERA and 0.53 WHIP. He hasn’t even allowed a single run on the road. We could think of no one better to be on the mound as the Mets look to rebound from a humiliating 20-2 loss to the Braves last night. In retrospect, Atlanta probably should have “saved” some of that scoring for today. deGrom did allow two runs in the last start, but that was after allowing zero runs in five consecutive starts. Honestly, it’s just as simple as betting the best pitcher in baseball in this one. This will be just the third time in his last 11 starts that deGrom isn’t a favorite of -235 or higher on the money line. The other two were both against San Diego and the Mets won those. Play on NY METS AAA | |||||||
07-01-21 | Astros v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OVER Houston just suffered what was possibly the most shocking sweep of the MLB season, losing all three games to Baltimore as big-time favorites. Now they turn around and head to Cleveland to face an Indians team that was just swept in a doubleheader - by Detroit - yesterday. The Astros have played 16 games in 16 days. So fatigue could be a factor for both clubs heading into this one. Nevertheless, we expect the hitters to take charge in tonight’s series opener. Houston is the highest scoring team in baseball at 5.8 runs/game and actually averages more when they are on the road. Tonight they go against JC Mejia, a starting pitcher that has a 6.27 ERA so far this year. It should be pointed out that Indians pitching allowed 16 runs in only 14 innings yesterday to a Tigers team that averages significantly fewer runs/game than the Astros do. The saving grace for Cleveland is that they score about a half run more per game at home than on the road. They will face Framber Valdez Thursday. Valdez has allowed a HR in three straight starts. The Indians have gone Over in their last six home games vs. a left-handed starter. The last five Houston series openers have gone Over as well. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
07-01-21 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -102 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TOR -1.5 These teams have similar records, but we believe Toronto to be far superior. Certainly, the oddsmakers seem to be in agreement with us, given how the home team has been priced in this series. The Blue Jays have closed north of -200 on the money line each of the last two days. Now they did lose yesterday, 9-7 in 10 innings. Somehow Seattle has managed to go 9-1 in extra inning games this year. That partly explains how they have one more win than the Blue Jays, despite a vastly inferior run differential. The Mariners have played 81 games so far. They’ve been outscored by 47 runs. Toronto has played 78 games. They’ve outscored their opponents by 69 runs. That’s quite the massive difference in run differential. So we’ve got no problem laying the -1.5 on the run line this afternoon. Remember that Toronto won the first game of the series, 9-3. Whether it’s been Florida or NY, the Blue Jays have averaged 5.8 runs/game at home. Seattle is actually being outscored by 1.3 runs/game on the road. We must concede that Kikuchi has pitched well recently for the Mariners. But he does have 10 walks in his last three starts. Ryu has very similar numbers for Toronto, who are also 19-8 in day games. Play TORONTO -1.5 AAA | |||||||
06-30-21 | Rangers v. A's -180 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 7* on OAK Texas upset Oakland 5-4 last night. That didn’t sit well with us as we played the A’s. The home team scored first (in the bottom of the first), then immediately retook the lead in the bottom of the fourth after allowing the Rangers to tie the game up in the top half of that inning. But from there, Texas took control. The visitors scored one run in the 5th, one in the 6th and two more in the 9th. Oakland tried to rally with two of their own in the bottom of the 9th, but came up one short. It was the Rangers’ first win all year following an off-day (previously 0-10) and the A’s first loss (previously 10-0) in that very situation. The A’s - despite being just 3-7 in their L10 games - remain monster favorites on the money line Wednesday and we can’t help but think they will bounce back. The pitching matchup for tonight is a rematch of a game played last Thursday with Allard going for Texas and Bassitt going for the A’s. Bassitt won the first go-around by allowing just one run in seven innings. Allard allowed four in six innings. Bassitt is currently riding a career-best eight game win streak as he has not dropped a decision since early April. Don’t overthink this one too much. Play on OAKLAND AAA | |||||||
06-30-21 | Suns +1 v. Clippers | Top | 130-103 | Win | 100 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHX The Suns have not lost two in a row since the Lakers series. So coming off the loss in Game 5, we’ll take them here in their second attempt to close out the Clippers. Digging themselves into a massive early hole (trailed 20-5 at the outset) did Phoenix no favors Monday night. That poor start basically decided the game. It was the first time in the series that the Suns trailed at the half. The first positive bit of news to report is that they are 7-3 against the spread this season when off a double digit loss. They are 19-7 ATS off a loss of any kind. It is unlikely that Chris Paul and Jae Crowder will combine to go 0 for 10 from behind the three point line again. That’s what they did in Game 5. Similarly, the Clippers probably won’t shoot 54.8% again like they did in Game 5. Paul George went for 41 points, his playoff high. The Clippers are definitely more banged up at this point of the series with Kawhi Leonard, Serge Ibaka and now Ivica Zubac all injured. LA is 3-6 ATS when off an upset win as an underdog. Our call is that the Suns end the Western Conference Finals tonight. Play on PHOENIX AAA | |||||||
06-30-21 | Canadiens +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -139 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 9* on MTL +1.5 Even though they lost Game 1 5-1, Montreal cannot be counted out. For starters, the loser of Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Finals has come back to win the series each of the past three seasons. The Habs know a thing or two about bouncing back from a loss this postseason as well. They lost Game 1 of the semis to Vegas in pretty ugly fashion (lost 4-1), only to storm back and win four of the next five games. Not since losing three in a row to the Maple Leafs back in Round 1 have the Habs suffered consecutive defeats in the playoffs. They are 11-3 since falling behind the Leafs three games to one and the two previous times they’ve had to respond from a loss, they’ve done so on the road, which is the case here. We’ll grab the puck line as an acknowledgement that the Lightning could very well win again, but not by more than one goal. Tampa’s top line greatly outplayed Montreal’s in Game 1. The first three goals that the Canadiens allowed in Game 1 were all off turnovers. So that’s something that can be fixed. Remember it was a 2-1 game heading into the third period. You have to figure Montreal is going to get more shots on goal tonight than the 19 they had in Game 1. Play MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA | |||||||
06-30-21 | Angels v. Yankees UNDER 9.5 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Yankees finally got a win on Tuesday and in doing so they scored 11 runs. That’s more than they scored during the entirety of their four-game losing streak, which was snapped yesterday. So don’t go expecting another game like that from the home team. Last night was the Yankees season high in runs scored for a single game. They’ll be facing the dynamic Shohei Ohtani tonight. After hitting three homers in the last two games, Ohtani now returns to the mound where he’s produced a 2.58 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 11 starts this year. His last start marked the sixth time he’s allowed one run or less. The fact that he’s pitching tonight probably will have an effect on his hitting, so don’t go expecting him to add to his MLB-leading 27 home run total. It’s amazing though that he’s every bit as good a pitcher as he is a hitter. The Yankees’ Domingo German is only focused on pitching right now as he looks to turn around a rough June. This may be the right opponent as German has a 0.82 ERA in three previous appearances vs. the Angels. Road teams have hit just .213 at Yankees Stadium this year. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-29-21 | Rangers v. A's -176 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -176 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND The trends are absolutely incredible when these two teams take the field after a day off. Texas is 0-10 this year after a day off. Oakland is 10-0! Neither played Monday, so guess who we’ll be going with? While it’s only June, it’s hard to think the Rangers haven’t already thrown the towel in on 2021. In last place in the AL West, an eight-game gap exists between them and the next closest team. They aren’t going to make that up. While the Rangers did manage to split four games with the A’s last week, that was in Arlington. Things have been rough on the road this year for the Rangers as they have gone 10-27. Mike Foltynewicz will start Tuesday’s game and he’s not having a great season. The team is just 5-10 with him on the mound and his numbers on the road are very bad (7.40 ERA, 1.73 WHIP). He did win his last start, against the A’s, last week. But he’d been shelled in the three previous starts. James Kaprielian will start opposite Foltynewicz for the second time in a row. Kaprielian had a near identical statline to Foltynewicz in the game last Wednesday. He allowed two runs and five hits (one fewer than Foltynewicz) in six innings. Key though is Kapriellian has been much more consistent in 2021. He hasn’t allowed a run in either start here at home, going 13 innings. The A’s are 17-5 as a home favorite of -175 or more. Play on OAKLAND AAA | |||||||
06-29-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 219 | Top | 88-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The last game featured good shooting from both teams and still they combined for only 215 points. The big story for Game 4 is going to the questionable status of Atlanta’s Trae Young, who is nursing a bone bruise in his foot. Though he went for 35 in Game 3, you can’t reasonably expect that kind of production again, if he even plays at all. Young’s absence would be extremely detrimental for the Hawks as he has been carrying them offensively. He sprained his ankle at the end of the third quarter in Game 3. The Hawks would then go on to score only 17 points in the fourth. For the entire playoffs, the Hawks are only averaging 105.6 points/game. Over the last five games, that average is down to 102.2. The offensive efficiency rating plummets when Young is off the floor. Milwaukee has shot well the last two games, but doing so three straight times might be a bit tricky, especially with this game being on the road. The one positive bit of info for Atlanta if Young can’t go is that their defensive efficiency goes way up with him off the floor. A hobbled/absent Young means we can count on low-scoring from Atlanta while Milwaukee isn’t likely to get 38 from Middleton again. The Bucks are allowing just 102.4 points/game in the playoffs. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-28-21 | Clippers v. Suns UNDER 214.5 | Top | 116-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Unlike their previous two series, the Clippers were unable to even things back up after four games. Having fallen into an 0-2 hole in every series thus far, the magic may have “left the hat” after a Game 4 loss to Phoenix. Though they ended up losing by only four, the Clippers trailed the entire game and were down by as many as 16 at one point. It was an ugly game, which ended up an 84-80 final and that was fine by us as we had the Under. That’s how we’re going to play Game 5 as well. The shooting will improve, but not by enough to approach this O/U line. The Suns didn’t score 100 points in either game at Staples Center. They probably will tonight, but the thing is they are only allowing 100.8 points/game in the playoffs. The Clippers have not scored more than 106 in any of the last three games. The amount of scoring has decreased in every game and while we’re not likely to see a repeat of Game 4 (164 points), something along the lines of Game 3 (198) and Game 2 (207) is pretty likely. Still no Kawhi Leonard for LA, remember. Phoenix has missed 58 of its last 78 threes. The Clippers are 13-6-1 Under off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-28-21 | Orioles v. Astros OVER 9.5 | Top | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is 10* on OVER These teams played a three-game series in Baltimore and it went just like you thought it would. Houston won all three games. They scored 10 and 13 runs in two of the wins. Now having won 12 of their last 14, the Astros are massive favorites at home Monday. This despite losing two of their last three games (to Detroit!) all in low scoring fashion. Baltimore has lost 22 of its last 23 road games though, so Houston deserves this level of favoritism. We don’t want to bet any team in this price range though. But because they scored 93 runs in a 10-game win streak (ended Saturday), we’ve got no issues taking the Astros to go Over the total tonight. Baltimore has given up 10 or more runs in half of its previous 10 games. They lost 12-4 yesterday. Today’s starter Eshelman gave up six runs when he faced the Astros last week and that was in only four innings. The Over is 12-4 in Zack Greinke starts this season for Houston. Part of the reason for that is a 5.24 home ERA. The Astros are also the highest scoring team in baseball. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
06-28-21 | Canadiens v. Lightning UNDER 5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We’ve got an unusual matchup in the Stanley Cup Finals. It’s “unusual” for a number of reasons. For one, it’s a matchup that would be impossible in every other season because these are two Eastern Conference teams. The Habs and Lightning have actually been in the same division since the last realignment. But for this unique season, which had travel restrictions, they have not met at all. Montreal being here is a shocker as no one expected the lone playoff team with a negative regular season goal differential to make it this far. It’s not a surprise that Tampa Bay, the defending Stanley Cup Champs, is still playing though. We like Game 1 to go Under. None of Montreal’s past seven games have had more than five combined goals scored. Tampa Bay has turned in two straight shutouts at home. They’ve also scored two or fewer goals in four of the past five contests. The Canadiens haven’t fared well in the past vs. the Lightning, especially in Tampa. The Under is 5-1 in the last six overall meetings. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-28-21 | Spain -160 v. Croatia | Top | 3-3 | Loss | -160 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SPAIN After opening Euro 2020 with just one goal in two disappointing draws, Spain exploded in the final match of the group stage and crushed Slovakia 5-0. That victory guaranteed La Roja’s place in the knockout stage and they’ll be matched up with Croatia, the second place team from Group D, in the Round of 16. Croatia’s path here saw them lose, draw and win. As was the case with Spain, they were not guaranteed to move on until winning their last match. In Croatia’s case, it was 3-1 against Scotland to conclude group play. They, like everyone else so far in this tournament, could not score on England. Then came a 1-1 draw with Czech Republic. This is an older side, one that very few think can make a deep run in the knockout stage. Spain is of course one of the favorites. The win against Scotland was Croatia’s first in their last five competitive matches. Spain has not lost in their last six. Ivan Perisic, one of the goal scorers against Scotland, will be unable to go here for Croatia as he tested positive for COVID-19. Play on SPAIN AAA | |||||||
06-27-21 | Bucks v. Hawks UNDER 224.5 | Top | 113-102 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Hawks are really struggling with their three point shooting. They’re barely above 25% in the last three games and have never been above 35% in any of the last seven. They finished with just 91 points in a pitiful Game 2 loss and while the series is heading back to Atlanta, we don’t necessarily think the Hawks will score a ton in Game 3. Looking at their entire playoff run, they’ve been above 110 points just four times. Milwaukee’s defense has been very strong. The number of points per game allowed by them in the playoffs is 102.5. The Hawks are 18-9 Under their last 27 games vs. winning teams and most of that has been the playoffs. Don’t forget how Kris Middleton of the Bucks sees his offensive production drop in road games. Jrue Holiday should also cool off after a hot first two games. The team scored 77 in the first half of Game 2, a really high number that probably can’t be touched again. Expect them not to shoot 52% from the field again. This has the makings of another hard-fought, low-scoring playoff game. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-27-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -183 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 7* on LA DODGERS The Cubs and Dodgers finish their four game series tonight on ESPN. After being no-hit in the first game, the home team has come back to win each of the last two days, by scores of 6-2 and 3-2. It was a walk-off HR by Cody Bellinger that won the game last night. Before Bellinger’s walk-off, the Dodgers hadn’t scored since the first inning. They likely aren’t going to need to score many runs to win tonight either as Clayton Kershaw starts the finale. Kershaw is working on a streak of three straight quality starts. He’s allowed three runs or less 11 different times in 2021. The shortest start of his career came May 4th at Wrigley Field, so Kershaw is out for revenge tonight. Pitching at home, look for him to turn the tables on a Cubs lineup that is batting only .218 away from home. Kershaw has 0.96 WHIP at Dodger Stadium. Alzolay has a 5.68 ERA his past three starts for the Cubs, who are just 2-8 this season as a road underdog of +125 to +175. The Dodgers are the highest scoring team in the National League and the only teams in all of baseball with a better run differential are the Astros and Giants. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
06-27-21 | Yankees -147 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY YANKEES The Yankees have lost five in a row to the Red Sox, including two times in this series. Previous to that, they were on a 23-6 against them. But today looks like the ideal time to turn things back around as Gerrit Cole will be starting. Cole, who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in 13 of his 15 starts, has a 2.33 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Pitching for a team like the Yankees, you’d think he’d have a better team start record than 8-7. But Cole does also have the most strikeouts (123) through 15 starts for any Yankees starter EVER. There’s just no comparison between him and Eduardo Rodriguez, today’s starter for Boston. Over his last eight starts, Rodriguez is 0-4 with a 7.94 ERA. Opponents are hitting .325 off him. Somehow, the Red Sox offense continues to bail him out as the team has won his last four starts. But because Cole is the opposition here, don’t look for the Boston bats to bail Rodriguez out again. He’s given up at least four runs in seven of those past eight starts. We have a hard time believing that Boston would sweep the Yankees twice in the same month. Play on NY YANKEES AAA | |||||||
06-26-21 | Suns v. Clippers UNDER 219 | Top | 84-80 | Win | 100 | 34 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After losing two close ones in Phoenix, the Clippers finally broke through in this series with a 106-92 win in Game 3. Other than the second quarter, the Clippers were largely in control throughout the last game. We are in control of this series with a 3-0 record. We took the Suns in Game 1, the Clippers in Game 2 (they covered the spread) and then the Clippers were our 10* Game of the Month in Game 3. We are laying off the side in Game 4 and will instead play the total. The last two games have gone Under. The Suns had only 92 points on 38,9 percent shooting in their loss Thursday. No one on their team scored more than 18 points and Booker/Paul combined to shoot 10 of 40 overall (3 of 14 on 3PA). You have to figure they are going to improve. But the oddsmakers have that built into the number. The Suns are allowing just 102.4 points/game in the playoffs. So the Clippers aren’t going to score a whole lot either here. Still no Kawhi Leonard. Phoenix may not have Cameron Payne, who has been so key as Chris Paul’s backup. He was injured very early in Game 3 (ankle) and did not return. “We missed him a lot” said Devin Booker. Marcus Morris is also listed as a game-time decision for the Clippers. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-26-21 | Angels v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Rays beat the Angels last night by a score of 4-3. That makes the Rays 5-0 in the season series as they swept a four-game set back in May. The Angels have lost four in a row overall, scoring just nine runs in the process. They scored exactly three in losses to the Rays, Giants and Tigers plus they were also blanked by the Giants on Tuesday. Tampa Bay has won three straight, including a game on Thursday where they did not get a hit until the eighth inning. But you can look for the hitters - on both teams - to wake up on Saturday. Alex Cobb is pitching today for the visitors. He’s got a 6.64 ERA and 1.62 WHIP on the road. He’d allowed five runs in back to back starts before shutting Detroit down in his last one. The Angels scored 11 runs in Cobb’s last start, so the Over is 3-0 the past three times he’s taken the mound. For the Rays, it’s Shane McClanahan. This will be his fifth start in June and he’s still without a win. McClanahan has actually pitched fairly well despite the lack of wins, but he has a higher WHIP than you like to see and a 4.67 ERA on the road. The Over has hit five straight times when the Angels are in the second game of a series. The Over is also 14-4 their last 18 games overall. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
06-26-21 | Denmark -114 v. Wales | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENMARK There is a potential for an all-time great story here with Denmark. We all know the terrible situation that occurred in their opening match with Christian Eriksen. On top of that, losing their first two matches seemed to doom any chance Denmark had of getting past the group stage. But they defied the odds, thanks to a dominant 4-1 win over Russia and some other things going their way. The stage is now set for a run in the knockout stage. We like them in the Round of 16 against Wales. It’s the second straight Euro Cup where Wales is in the Round of 16. They made it all the way to the semifinals in 2016. But being here feels a bit lucky this time. It was basically a win over Turkey. They did draw with Switzerland, 1-1, but that was a fortunate result. Italy only beating them 1-0 was not indicative of how that match was played (Italy was much better). Denmark’s loss to Finland was the most excusable upset in recent memory, then they blew a lead to Belgium after scoring first. But then came the completely dominant effort over Russia. Wales won’t have any fans present in Amsterdam because of travel restrictions. So this will be like a home fixture for Denmark. They have won the last three competitive matches vs. Wales. Play on DENMARK AAA | |||||||
06-25-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -165 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD The Cubs shocked us last night, not only beating the Dodgers but no-hitting them! The 4-0 win was certainly not what we had envisioned when playing the Dodgers on the run line. Los Angeles is now 0-4 vs. Chicago this year and yesterday was their fourth straight loss overall. Earlier this week, they were swept in San Diego. There’s a real sense of “underachieving” hovering around the team right now, but we are doubling down tonight and saying the Dodgers put an end to this madness with an emphatic win Friday. The Cubs are 2-7 as road underdogs of +125 to +175 this year. They are 8-16 in that role the last three seasons. The Dodgers had been shut out only one other time this year (before last night) and in that case they came back to win 3-0 the next day. They are 6-1 since 2019 after being shutout. They are 3-0 in Gonsolin starts in 2021 (that’s who is starting today). Jake Arrieta is 0-4 with an 8.25 ERA his last five starts for Chicago. The Dodgers, despite the recent woes, should still be considered one of MLB’s elite teams. They are not going to lose every game to the Cubs this year. We don’t need to lay the -1.5 today and a Dodgers win here seems quite likely. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
06-25-21 | Hawks v. Bucks -7.5 | Top | 91-125 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Atlanta is now 3-0 in Game 1’s during this playoff run. All three wins have come as underdogs. They were +8 for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals here in Milwaukee, a game they came from behind to win 116-113. Trae Young rebounded nicely from a dismal Game 7 against the 76ers. He had 48 points Wednesday night. The Hawks have been underdogs in nine straight games. Tonight will make it 10. They are an impressive 6-3 SU those past nine games, but have never won three straight games, which is what they are looking to do this evening. But we can’t see the Bucks losing both home games to open the series. So we’ll lay the points. Even though the Hawks have won five of their last six on the road, they are still just a .500 team (for the year) away from home. The Bucks are 31-11 SU at home and were 5-0 in the playoffs before dropping Game 1. They were also on a 13-game win streak at home going back to the regular season. Young can’t score 48 in every game and the injury to Bogdan Bogdanovic seems significant as he went just 1 for 6 in Game 1. Bogdanovic, not Young, has been the team’s best 3-point shooter this season. Expect the Bucks to shoot way better from three in this game (they were just 8 of 36 in Game 1), especially Kris Middleton (who was 0 for 9). Lay it! Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
06-25-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -161 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY We’ll lead with the trend that you all know is coming. Over the last two postseasons, Tampa Bay is a perfect 12-0 SU off a loss. We have taken them each of the first two times they’ve been off a loss in this series. The last one resulted in the infamous 8-0 thrashing of the Islanders back in Game 5 here in Tampa. There have been only five losses the entire postseason for the Lightning. They’ve averaged an incredible 5.6 goals/game when off a loss, scoring a total of 28 times. Three of those times they scored six or more goals. They’ve never scored fewer than four. So that’s a “tall hill” to climb for an Islanders team that has scored only 11 goals this entire series. The Lightning have scored 19 goals. Game 7 being in Tampa Bay is obviously big for the Lightning. Not just because of their own 26-10 SU home record. But also due to the fact the Islanders have a losing road record this season. Tampa Bay averages 3.7 goals/game at home. The Islanders average just 2.2 goals/game on the road. The last 80 times that the Lightning have scored two goals or less in a game (they lost Game 6, 3-2), they are 63-17 SU in the next game. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
06-24-21 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 After being swept down in San Diego, the Dodgers look to regroup this weekend. It’ll be the Cubs paying them a visit and this is a revenge series for the home team who got swept at Wrigley Field early in May. We look for this series to go a whole lot differently. Or at least today’s game where Walker Buehler will pitch for Los Angeles. Buehler has a 10-4 team start record this year, but has not dropped a decision. His record is 7-0 and he’s coming off a performance where he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning and had a season-high 11 strikeouts. He’s 3-0 his past three starts with an ERA of 0.89 and a WHIP of 0.74. When the no-hitter was finally broken up by Arizona last Saturday, Buehler had not allowed any runs in his previous 20 innings of work. The Cubs have lost six of nine and before winning 7-1 against Cleveland Tuesday, they had not topped three runs in any of those contests. They really struggle at the plate on the road (.218 average) and we don’t see Davies helping out too much as he has a 1.77 WHIP in seven road starts. The Dodgers are 4-1 this year following three straight losses. Since the money line is pretty high, you’ll want to play the run line here as we think the home team wins this one pretty easily. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 AAA | |||||||
06-24-21 | Suns v. Clippers +1.5 | Top | 92-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CLIPPERS Both Games 1 and 2 were tightly contested and the Suns are up 2-0 heading back to LA. We are also 2-0 in the series. Phoenix was the play for Game 1 and they covered the spread thanks to a pair of late Devin Booker free throws. We took the Clippers in Game 2 and that probably should have been an outright win, but we’ll take the cover. The finish to Game 2 was wild with the Clippers allowing a game-winning alley-oop in the final second. For the third straight series, they are down 0-2. In the first round, they won Game 3 in Dallas 118-108. In the second round, they won Game 3 at home, 132-106 over Utah. Going back to Game 7 of the first round, they’ve won four straight at home - all by double digits. The season is basically on the line tonight. Chris Paul may be back for the Suns, which is why the line has shifted towards the Suns after initially flipping to the Clippers -1. But Paul will have rust to shake off and bettors are overreacting to the news. Reggie Jackson has stepped up for the Clippers with Kawhi Leonard out as he’s averaging 23 points over the last four games. To us, this is a very obvious bounce back situation as the Clippers probably should have won Game 2. The Clippers are 6-2 ATS when trailing in the series during these playoffs. Phoenix is 1-9 ATS its last 10 visits to the Staples Center to face the Clippers. Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA | |||||||
06-24-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Those pesky Habs won’t go away and are now just a win away from the Stanley Cup Finals. They came in as massive underdogs in this semifinal series with Vegas, who tied for the most points in the league during the regular season (and had the best goal differential). The series started with Vegas easily taking Game 1 and most figured Montreal’s magical run was done for. Not so fast. They’ve won three of the last four games. What continues to impress us is not just the fact the Canadiens have won 10 of their last 12 games, but they’ve never trailed in 9 of those 10 wins. Now we also had Vegas as our Game of the Year in Game 4, which they won. They are not going quietly into the night. While no game in this series has had more than five goals scored, we are going to predict this one will. Six of the Golden Knights top seven goal scorers have failed to put the puck in the net (even one time) in this series. This was the third highest scoring team in the league in the regular season. Each team has had a game where they scored four times. So both are capable of big offensive nights. Montreal’s penalty killing, which is 28 for its last 28, is due to give one up. Note four of the five games in the series have seen EXACTLY five goals scored. We just need one more to get over the hump here and we’ll take our chances. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
06-24-21 | Indians v. Twins -179 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -179 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MINNESOTA It says a lot that Minnesota would be favored like this. The Twins have drastically underachieved in 2021 as they are 31-42 and in last place in the Central. But coming into the season, it was projected that they’d be battling with the White Sox for division supremacy, They did win the division each of the last two years. So looking at this line, it seems as if the oddsmakers still believe a turnaround is possible. We agree. Cleveland, who is 10 games up on the Twins right now, has seen its starting rotation decimated by injuries. That’s why you have Jean Carlos Mejia starting tonight’s game. Making four starts so far, Mejia has been bad. He gave up six runs to Pittsburgh in a game where there was no DH. He has an 11.17 ERA the last three starts. Minnesota had shown signs of turning things around recently as they’d won five in a row before losing 10-7 to the Reds on Tuesday. They’ve scored seven runs in four of their last six games. So it should be a solid night at the plate vs. Mejia. One spot where the Twins always seem to do well is when Jose Berrios is pitching. They’ve won his last seven starts. Berrios looks to extend that win streak here against a team he’s pitched pretty well against in the past. The Indians are 0-6 the L6 meetings in Minnesota. Play on MINNESOTA AAA | |||||||
06-23-21 | Hawks v. Bucks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 116-113 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Two teams that won Game 7’s on the road will meet in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals. There’s a little bit of irony in Milwaukee making the Conference Finals in a year they weren’t “supposed to.” The last two years, they had the best record in the league. But all that got them was a loss in the Conference Finals and then a loss in the Conference Semifinals. Atlanta is in its first ECF since 2015 (were swept by Cleveland) and only the second since the 1960s! It’s been almost a half century since either franchise was in a NBA Finals, so there will be new blood coming out of the East either way. We like Game 1 to go Under. That’s the way most of the Bucks games in the last round (vs. Brooklyn) went. Same with Atlanta against Philadelphia. The last four Hawks-Sixers games all stayed Under. We had the Under in both Games 6 and 7. Atlanta playoff games have averaged just 211.2 points/game with the Under being 8-4. Milwaukee playoff games have averaged just 210.2 points/games with the Under being 7-3. So this number looks way too high. In the three home games against Brooklyn, the Bucks allowed 83, 96 and 89 points. Atlanta scored 103 or less in four of its last six games, never topping 111. The most points Milwaukee scored in regulation vs. Brooklyn was 109. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-23-21 | Lightning v. Islanders +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 7* on the ISLANDERS +1.5 Tampa Bay leads this series 3-2 after humiliating the Islanders 8-0 in Game 5. That was the most lopsided NHL Playoff game in 20 years. It was the biggest margin of victory in playoff history for the Lightning and the worst margin of defeat in Islanders’ playoff history (and they’ve been around for awhile). We’re proud to say we took the Lightning in that 8-0 win. The world now figures to follow suit for Game 6. But we’re “jumping ship” as the Isles look to not only keep their season alive in what could be the final game ever played at Nassau Coliseum. Even if they win here, there’s no guarantee the Isles will play another game here as they’d also have to win Game 7 in Tampa Bay. Coach Barry Trotz guaranteed a much better effort on Long Island. "You'll get our best," Trotz said. "Whatever we've got left, you're going to get our best [Wednesday]." With the season and their building on the line, we don’t see the home team “rolling over” tonight. If they do lose, it won’t be by more than one goal. This team has won 37 of its previous 55 home games (26-10 this year). They have yet to lose two in a row by more than a goal in this postseason. Game 5 was not an accurate picture of this team. Play on NY ISLANDERS AAA | |||||||
06-23-21 | Brewers -175 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee actually dropped the series opener to Arizona, but then wasted little in bouncing back with a 5-0 win last night. Yesterday’s loss means the Diamondbacks are 3-32 in their L35 games. They’ve lost 41 of 47. They’d lost a franchise record 17 in a row coming into the series and there is seemingly no light at the end of the tunnel here. Ketel Marte, who is hitting .366, left in the first inning last night with an injury, Arizona ended up with just two hits in the game. Adding insult to injury, there was an embarrassing play in the field Tuesday where a Brewers runner that pulled up lame rounding third was still able to score. Believe it or not, it gets words. Caleb Smith, who is this afternoon’s starting pitcher, is 0-4 in four career starts vs. Milwaukee. Brandon Woodruff goes for the Brewers. Despite being off a rare poor outing (was in Colorado), Woodruff has 1.94 ERA and 0.76 WHIP this season. Both numbers are among the best for qualified starters. The Brewers are 10-4 in Woodruff starts. How could you NOT take them here? This game may not be the focal point of the Milwaukee media on Wednesday, but the town’s sports fans will have something to cheer about before the Bucks game even tips off. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
06-22-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | Top | 4-1 | Push | 0 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We are coming off a couple huge wins in the NHL. It was 8-0 last night with Tampa Bay. The night before last we won our 10* Game of the Year with Vegas. For the Golden Knights, that overtime victory evened this series up at two games each. The big story was the decision to start Robin Lehner in goal. After a disastrous start in Game 1 of the Colorado series, Lehner stopped 27 of 28 shots in Game 4 vs. Montreal. We don’t know for sure who will be starting Game 5 for Vegas - Lehner or Fleury - but either way we know we’ve got a solid goaltender between the pipes. This is not a game where we see more than five total goals getting scored. The Under is 3-0-2 in Montreal’s last five, so there has not been more than five total goals scored in any game of this series, obviously. Game 4 was the lowest scoring one yet with just three goals, including OT. Both teams are giving up just 2.3 goals per game in the postseason. We don’t see the winning side having to score more than two goals to take tonight’s game. The Habs’ Carey Price has a .931 save percentage in these playoffs. The Under is 23-6-7 in Montreal’s last 36 games as a playoff underdog. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-22-21 | Clippers +5.5 v. Suns | Top | 103-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LA CLIPPERS We’re going with the Clippers plus the points in Game 2. We laid the points with the Suns in Game 1. They shot 55% from the field and were led by Devin Booker’s 40 points. Booker also had a triple double. Booker and his teammates aren’t likely to be that prolific for a second straight game. Considering that the Clippers were never out of Game 1, we give them a solid shot at pulling the upset here even as they continue to play without Kawhi Leonard. They defeated the Jazz twice without Leonard. Phoenix doesn’t have Chris Paul. The Clippers are 5-2 ATS when trailing in these series during these playoffs. Game 1 was tied going into the fourth quarter. Factoring in the likely decline in shooting by Phoenix, the Clippers should easily cover this spread. The Suns haven’t lost since Game 3 of the first round and can’t go on winning “forever.” Play on LA CLIPPERS AAA | |||||||
06-22-21 | A's -145 v. Rangers | Top | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND Oakland lost Monday, 8-3 to the Rangers. Because of that they’re now a game back (of Houston) in the AL West. We expect them to bounce back Tuesday. The last three times Cole Irvin has started a game for the A’s, they’ve been victorious. He’s on the hill tonight. Irvin didn’t have his best stuff in his last start when he gave up four runs. But the two before that were both quality outings. Texas was originally set to go with Jordan Lyles, but now it’s Taylor Hearn, who usually comes out of the bullpen. Hearn has never started a game before at the big league level. The Rangers are the last place team in the division and with a 10-game gap to make up, that’s where they will likely stay for the remainder of 2021. They’d lost six games in a row going into Monday. Oakland has now lost three in a row for just the the third time since starting the year 0-6. Each of the previous two times, they’ve responded by winning. In fact, we took them the last time they were in the situation and it was a 12-6 win against Seattle. The A’s are 8-1 this year as road favorites of -125 to -175. They are in that range today. Play on OAKLAND AAA | |||||||
06-22-21 | Astros -190 v. Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 7* on HOUSTON They were such an easy winner yesterday, why not go with the Astros again today? We can’t believe they’re not north of -200 on the money line. As previously discussed, the two teams here are going in very opposite directions. Coming off last night’s win and an impressive four-game sweep of the White Sox, Houston has won eight in a row. They have taken the lead in the AL West, by a game over the Athletics, and have the best run differential in the sport right now (+120). So much for being a byproduct of cheating. Baltimore could probably afford to steal a sign or two as they’ve lost 11 of their last 12 games. They have the worst record/run differential in the American League. Most are aware of how dire things have gotten for the Orioles on the road, where they’ve lost 19 straight times. But they also are no good at Camden Yards. A 12-24 home record is very poor. That’s the most home losses in baseball. Pitching today for the Astros will be Greinke. Since we were willing to take Jake Odorizzi yesterday, taking Greinke is a no-brainer. He has an 11-4 TSR. On the road, he has a 2.20 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. Jorge Lopez goes for Baltimore. He has an 8.36 ERA and 1.71 WHIP his last three starts. Can you say “mismatch?” Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
06-22-21 | England -160 v. Czech Republic | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 45 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ENGLAND There has been much consternation surrounding The Three Lions following their failure to defeat Scotland last Friday. It was a goalless draw, leaving England level with their final opponent in the group stage (Czech Republic) at 4 points apiece. The good news is that Gareth Southgate’s side kept its fourth straight clean sheet and remains in solid position to advance to the Round of 16. But that’s not the end goal in Euro 2020 and our opinion is that England is going to be “out for blood” in this final match of the group stage. A win and a draw may not be enough to satisfy the English fans, but for Czech Republic, it’s a pleasant surprise. They were underdogs in each of the first two matches, a 2-0 win over Scotland and 1-1 draw with Croatia. With an expected goal difference of -0.5, the general consensus is that this team has been a bit “lucky.” Keep in mind that Czech Republic was 10-1 to win Group D coming into the Tournament and north of 100-1 to win the whole thing. So they very much remain a “longshot.” They lost the possession battle against Scotland and the lone goal vs. Croatia came on a penalty. With England having yet to concede a single goal, we look for them to emerge victorious here and win Group D. Play on ENGLAND AAA | |||||||
06-21-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -183 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 20 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 7* on TB We’ll lead with the key trend: Over the last two postseasons, the Lightning are 11-0 SU off a loss. We went with the trend in Game 2 and they won there for us. So we’ll do it again for Game 5, also on home ice. The reason the Lightning lost Game 4 is pretty obvious. They gave up three goals in the second period. That put them in a hole that was too big to climb out of. They almost did, scoring twice in the third period. The good news, besides the trend mentioned above, is that other than the second period of Game 5 the Lightning have allowed just five goals in this series. They are 19-5 when seeking to avenge a loss this season. Brayden Point has scored a goal in seven straight games. The Lightning are 62-17 SU the last 79 times they have been off a game where they scored two goals or less. With the series moving back to Tampa Bay, it’s also worth pointing out that the Lightning are 46-19 SU L65 home games. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
06-21-21 | Astros -163 v. Orioles | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON We’ve got two teams going in opposite directions here. Coming off an impressive four-game sweep of the White Sox, Houston has won seven in a row. They have taken the lead in the AL West, by percentage points at least, with the best run differential in the sport right now (+112). So much for being a byproduct of cheating. Baltimore could probably afford to steal a sign or two as they’ve lost 10 of their last 11. They have the worst record/run differential in the American League. Most are aware of how dire things have gotten for the Orioles on the road, where they’ve lost 19 straight times. But they also are no good at Camden Yards. A 12-23 home record is very poor. That’s the most home losses in baseball. Jake Odorizzi isn’t our favorite pitcher on the Houston staff, but he’ll suffice tonight. Akin starts for Baltimore after giving up eight runs in his previous start. The Astros score 5.8 runs/game on the road. That’s the highest average in baseball. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
06-20-21 | Golden Knights -172 v. Canadiens | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS Montreal seems to have proved the doubters wrong once again. They now lead this Stanley Cup semi final two games to one after stunning Vegas in Game 3. That last win saw them get a gift goal near the end of regulation as Marc-Andre Fleury misplayed the puck badly. That tied the game up, then a little more than seven minutes into overtime Josh Anderson scored the game-winner. Since falling behind Toronto three games to one in the first round series, the Habs are 9-1, the only loss being Game 1 of this series. Vegas outshot them 45-27 in Game 3 and clearly should have won the game. They were just two minutes away from being up 2-1 in the series. The Golden Knights have proven themselves to be resilient this postseason, erasing early series deficits in both previous series. This is the third time they’ve dropped two straight in the playoffs. Each of the previous two times saw them come back to win the next time out. This time they’ll have to do it on the road. Considering this is probably the best team in the league, we have little hesitation in betting them in this spot. There has been only one time all season that Vegas dropped three straight games. Montreal is a team no one expected to still be playing, let alone leading this series. Vegas has outshot Montreal in all three games and scored one more goal. They’re simply better. Play on VEGAS AAA | |||||||
06-20-21 | Hawks v. 76ers UNDER 216 | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Expect a low-scoring Game 7 from the 76ers and Hawks Sunday night. Since making 20 three-pointers in Game 1, Atlanta’s long distance shooting has fallen off a cliff. They made just 10 of 31 three-point attempts in Game 6, a major reason they lost, and have averaged only 9.5 made threes per game since Game 1. As a team, they’ve shot 43.1 percent overall in those last five games and averaged 104.8 points/game. Other than Trae Young, the Hawks scored 65 points in Game 6. Bogdan Bogdanovic is questionable for Sunday after leaving the last game with a knee injury. That would be a significant loss at the offensive end for Atlanta. The last three games have all stayed Under with 215 being the max amount of total points scored. These are not good free throw shooting teams. Philadelphia was #2 in the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season. Offensively, they cannot continue making threes at a rate above 40%. Like most Game 7’s, this one stays Under. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-20-21 | Phillies v. Giants UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Giants had a five-game win streak snapped yesterday in a most shocking way as the Phillies beat them 13-6. Those 13 runs scored by the Phillies were nearly as many as the number they’d scored the previous five games combined (16), all of which were Unders. The Giants are typically one of the stingier teams in baseball as their pitching staff has allowed a batting average of just .218 for the year and .204 at home. Now Sammy Long, making his first career start, is a bit of a question mark for Sunday. But given the Phillies’ previous offensive woes, we believe Long will limit them. Phillies pitching has also been pretty good of late. In the seven games leading up to yesterday, they’d allowed an average of only 3.3 runs and a .196 batting average. Spencer Howard was scratched so that Zach Eflin can go Sunday. We like the move as Eflin is coming off two good starts in a row, both of which went Under. This game should be nothing like yesterday. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-20-21 | Clippers v. Suns -4 | Top | 114-120 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PHOENIX So it is the Clippers vs. the Suns in the Western Conference Finals. But no Kawhi Leonard or Chris Paul in Game 1. This is the Clippers’ 1st ever Conference Finals appearance. It’s the first for the Suns since 2010 and they haven’t been in the NBA Finals since 1993. So we’re guaranteed some “new blood” out of the Western Conference this year. We were shocked that the Clippers beat the Jazz two straight times without Leonard. They trailed by 25 in the third quarter Friday. While LA got just one day off between series, Phoenix hasn’t played in a week. The Suns looked very impressive in sweeping Denver, winning all four games comfortably. They’ve won and covered seven in a row. It’s a shame that Paul is out, but we believe the Suns still get it done at home in Game 1. The Clippers lost the first two games of both prior series. We don’t see them continuing to post the best offensive efficiency rating in the playoffs. That’s because Phoenix allowed only 100.8 points/game in the first two rounds. The Clippers don’t have Serge Ibaka either and are 3-7-1 ATS off a straight up win by 10 or more points. Play on PHOENIX AAA | |||||||
06-20-21 | Marlins v. Cubs -143 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CHICAGO Two straight humiliating defeats at home is definitely not what the Cubs expected from this series vs. the Marlins. They’ve been outscored 21-3 the past two days. Typically, when a home team gets roughed up, they bounce back the following day. That didn’t happen for the Cubs yesterday, but we think it will today. This is a good home team. They’re 24-12 at Wrigley Field in 2021 and 92-57 here since the beginning of 2019. Miami is just 15-25 on the road in 2021 and 60-93 since the beginning of ‘19. Considering that the Cubs are averaging a healthy 5.0 runs/game at the Friendly Confines, you’ve got to think the offense is due to turn things around after a quiet week at the plate. They’ll face Zach Thompson, who has just two big league starts under his belt. He was better in the second one, but still lasted just five innings. Alec Mills will also be making just his third start of 2021 for the Cubs, but he’s a veteran. Miami came into yesterday’s game hitting just .218 on the road this year. They are bound to cool off. The last two days are just not reflective of the two teams. Play on CHICAGO AAA | |||||||
06-20-21 | Turkey v. Switzerland OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Turkey and Switzerland have disappointed thus far at Euro 2020 and thus both will be desperate for points in the finale of the Group stage on Sunday. There’s no guarantee that either will make the Round of 16, but one (not both) could. Turkey has a terrible goal differential of -5, worst in the entire draw. At -3, Switzerland needs a big win as well. So what we expect here is a wide-open match. Neither side can afford a draw, so it will stay wide open throughout. Turkey not having scored a single goal in two matches is a bit stunning. Oddsmakers had them pegged for 3.5 goals in this tournament, though the expectation of them advancing past the group stage was probably factored into that. Still, with the likes of striker Burak Yilmaz, it seems like a near impossibility that Turkey won’t notch AT LEAST one goal here. Switzerland, like Turkey, was blanked 3-0 by Italy. But they definitely feel they should have had one more goal against Wales (overturned by VAR). We see both sides scoring here and at least one scoring two goals. That makes Over the play here. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
06-19-21 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD -1.5 There’s really no price that could discourage us from selecting the Dodgers tonight in Arizona. This is truly about as large a mismatch as it gets in this sport. The Dodgers, 3-0 winners on Friday, do not have the best won-loss record in the National League, or even their own division. But they are #1 in the NL in run differential (+96). Arizona is hideous. They have lost 15 in a row and 32 of their last 37 games. In addition to setting a new record for futility on the road (23 straight losses), the team has not won at home since June 1st. At 20-51, the Diamondbacks have the worst record in baseball. Matt Peacock is not the man for the task at hand Saturday night. He is 0-3 over his last three starts with a 7.14 ERA and 2.47 WHIP. He has more walks than strikeouts in those three starts and just gave up 10 hits in 5 innings the last time he pitched. The Dodgers will have Walker Buehler on the mound and he hasn’t allowed a single run in his last two starts. He’s delivered six straight quality starts and the first of those six came against Arizona. Buehler held the D’backs to one hit over seven innings back on May 17th. LA won the game 3-1. They’ll likely win by an even larger margin tonight as 2+ runs will be the difference. Play on LA DODGERS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA | |||||||
06-19-21 | Bucks v. Nets | Top | 115-111 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on BROOKLYN The home team has won all six games in this series. We expect the trend to continue in Game 7. That means Brooklyn advances to the Eastern Conference Finals. Even having to go without Kyrie Irving, the Nets should put up a lot of points at home. The three games at Milwaukee have seen them average only 89.3 points/game. But at home they’ve averaged 118.0 and one of those was without Irving and also James Harden making just 1 of 10 field goal attempts. We trust Kevin Durant to lead the way Saturday. He is averaging 33.3 points/game in the series. Harden shot a lot better in Game 6 and finished with 16 points. He’s played 40+ minutes in both games since returning and we’re gonna predict a series high in points of Harden here in Game 7. On the flip side, look for Milwaukee’s Khris Middleton’s numbers to go down. Middleton had a game-high 38 in Game 6. He is averaging almost 31 points in the three games in Milwaukee. But that average goes down to 18.3 in Brooklyn. That’s a big difference. The Bucks crunch time play has not impressed us. They were lucky to get out to a big early lead in the last game. Brooklyn has the best player (Durant) and is at home. The Bucks’ road record is just 22-19 SU and they are 1-5 ATS as underdogs this season. If you include the regular season, the home team is 9-0 in head to head meetings between these teams in 2020-21. Play on BROOKLYN AAA | |||||||
06-19-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER We played Game 3 Under and that turned out to be a correct call with the Lightning winning 2-1. The visitors now have a 2-1 series lead after dropping Game 1 at home, also by a score of 2-1. Game 2 was 4-2 (in favor of the Lightning), but we don’t expect to see many more games like that in this series. The Islanders have found the back of the net just five times against Andrei Vasilevskiy. Tampa Bay did an excellent job at blocking shots in the last game as 11 players combined to block 21 Islanders shot attempts. Game 3 also brought the fewest number of total shots (53) we’ve seen in any game in the series so far. While they’ve allowed more shots than usual this postseason, the Islanders allow only 28.1 per game at home. So the decrease in shots for the Lightning in Game 3 wasn’t the least bit surprising. The Islanders allow just 2.1 goals/game on home ice as well. Tampa Bay has allowed just five goals its last four games, going back to when they closed out Carolina. The Under is 7-0 the last seven times TB has been off a win. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-19-21 | Blue Jays -163 v. Orioles | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TORONTO Toronto ought to be a lot better than two games below .500 and fourth place in the American League East. They have scored 39 more runs than they’ve allowed this season. But they’ve been headed in the wrong direction this week by losing five in a row. Getting swept by the Yankees is one thing, but losing to Baltimore (which they did Friday) should be considered a real embarrassment. It wasn’t even close as the Jays went down 7-1 in the opener of this three-game series. The Orioles have lost 19 straight road games, but are 6-2 their last eight games at Camden Yards. While they may be better at home, the Orioles aren’t likely to win back to back games here as their starter for today has a 3-7 team start record and is really struggling. It’s Dean Kremer, whose last three starts have resulted in an 8.76 ERA and 1.78 WHIP. Winless at Camden Yards so far (0-3), Kremer has an 8.41 ERA in his home park. Toronto starter Manoah has had no problems pitching on the road where his ERA and WHIP are 1.06 and 0.88. Baltimore is just 9-22 in day games. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
06-19-21 | Poland v. Spain UNDER 2.75 | Top | 1-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER There’s been much chatter about how scoring is up in this edition of the Euro Cup, at least compared to 2016. Well, we just cashed an Under on Friday with Sweden-Slovakia where a penalty was the lone goal scored. Spain was Sweden’s first opponent in this draw and the result there was a scoreless draw. Luis Enrique’s side left the pitch feeling like they should have scored at least one goal in that one. But alas they ended up sharing the points. Poland was a 2-1 loser to Slovakia their first time out. But as detailed in the writeup for the previous day’s match, they were down to 10 men by the end of the match and Slovakia got the game winner only after Grzegorz Krychowiak was sent off with a red card. The only other goal conceded by Poland was a dreaded own goal. So don’t be fooled by the two goals allowed. There is a lot of hand-waving going on right now with Spain and the fact they failed to score a goal against Sweden. Our best guess is this one ends up 1-0 in favor of La Roja. Regardless of what the exact final outcome ends up being, expect the Under to hit. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-18-21 | Jazz -2 v. Clippers | Top | 119-131 | Loss | -101 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UTAH Utah thought they had the Clippers right where they wanted them heading into Game 5. The announcement that Kawhi Leonard would miss Game 5 led to the line skyrocketing. But the Clippers pulled the 119-111 upset and are now a game away from advancing to their first ever Western Conference Finals. Last year they were in this same position but famously dropped three straight to the Denver Nuggets. They only get two shots this time, after starting down 0-2 in the series. We don’t like their chances of getting it done in Game 6. Leonard is still expected to be out. Same with Serge Ibaka. This is the first three-game losing streak of the season for Utah, who had the NBA’s best regular season record. So history favors them getting it done. We realize the same could have been said for Game 5 and that was at home. But can you trust Paul George to score 37 points again? We don’t. The Jazz scored 65 first half points on Wednesday and six players finished in double figures. The Donovan Mitchell ankle injury remains a concern, but at least he’s gonna play (unlike Leonard). The Clippers are just 2-5 SU/ATS when leading a playoff series the last three years. It was very logical to “count them out” going into the last game. Utah won’t make the same mistake twice. Play on UTAH AAA | |||||||
06-18-21 | Brewers -183 v. Rockies | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -183 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee dropped a game in Colorado last night as they’ve now lost four in a row. This losing streak, which also saw them get swept at home by Cincinnati, has dropped them out of first place in the National League’s Central Division. They are a game back of the Cubs, who won yesterday. So it’s definitely time for the Brewers to right the ship and we couldn’t think of a better pitcher to have on the mound tonight than Corbin Burnes. With a 2.13 ERA and 0.84 WHIP, Burnes is having a sensational start to the season. The majority of his 11 starts have come at home, but the three on the road have seen him allow only two runs and seven hits. That’s in 18 innings where Burnes has 28 strikeouts vs. only one walk. The Brewers have come out ahead each of the past three times Burnes has started. Ironically, he didn’t have his best stuff last time. He’ll need to be better here as he’s pitching at Coors Field, but the Rockies also figure to give up their fair share of runs in this one. Colorado is on its third four-game win streak of the season. They’ve never been able to make it five. Senzatela is on the mound and he’s been the Rockies’ biggest money-loser in the starting rotation with a 3-10 team start record. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
06-18-21 | Golden Knights v. Canadiens +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) Montreal again proved the doubters wrong by winning Game 2, 3-2. It was yet another game where the Habs never trailed. That’s been the case in eight of their last nine games, Game 1 vs. Vegas being the outlier. In Game 2, Montreal got off to a 3-0 lead and never looked back. It wasn’t until late in the third period that Vegas was able to get back with a goal. We think the Canadiens will, at the very worst, be able to stay within a goal of the Golden Knights in Game 3. The series is now in Montreal, making this the first time Vegas (or any U.S. team) has crossed the border into Canada in over a year. Attendance won’t be anywhere near full capacity, but it’s still an advantage to be at home. Montreal hasn’t lost on home ice since 5/25 and they’ve been beaten by more than one goal in only one home game during these playoffs. Vegas has just one win in its last four playoff road games, that being in Colorado where they rallied from an early 0-2 hole to win by one goal (3-2). Vegas has opened the scoring in just 5 of its 15 playoff games. When you start from behind, it’s tough to win by more than a goal. Play MONTREAL +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA | |||||||
06-18-21 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 222 | Top | 104-99 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER This series is now 3-2 Atlanta after Philadelphia has blown big leads in each of the last two games. In Game 4, they led by 13 at halftime but lost 103-100 as the Hawks ended up taking 16 more shots. Game 5 was an even worse scenario. The Sixers led by as much as 26, but could not close the deal and suffered another three-point defeat (109-106) putting them on the brink of elimination. We chose to play the 1st half Under in Game 5 and even with Philadelphia scoring 62 by halftime, that bet was still a winner. Not pertinent to our bet was Atlanta having the huge 40-point fourth quarter. We don’t see that kind of offensive production from either side in this game. The Sixers have shot better than 40 percent from behind the three-point line for four straight games. It’s difficult to imagine them doing that for a fifth straight game. They’ve actually shot 51.2% overall in the series. Again, it’s very likely that number will decrease. There were 45 made free throws in Game 5. That’s yet another number that is unlikely to be matched. Atlanta is now 24-7 Under when leading in a playoff series, going 3-1 in that spot this year. Philadelphia was one of the league’s most efficient defensive teams in the regular season. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-18-21 | Slovakia v. Sweden UNDER 2.25 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the UNDER The second round of Group E action begins with Sweden taking on Slovakia Friday. Both sides were able to take points from their initial group match. Slovakia beat Poland 2-1 to get the full three points while Sweden played favored Spain to a goalless draw. While that was just one point for the Swedes, it was arguably a more impressive showing than what Slovakia did against a Polish side that was down a man by the end of that match. Shortly after Grzegorz Krychowiak was shown a red card for Poland, Slovakia struck with the game winner in the 69th minute. Their only other goal was a gift from the other side as Poland’s goalkeeper committed the cardinal sin of an own goal. So multiple goals from Slovakia in this one certainly seems to be unlikely. Probably content with the win from the initial group match, they’d be happy with a draw here. Same for Sweden, who has Poland yet to come. A draw here and a win there would likely move them to the knockout stage. So don’t go expecting more than a single goal scored in St. Petersburg and there may not be any scored at all. Sweden has already played one goalless draw and this could very well be another. Both sides will be content to pack the midfield. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-17-21 | Tigers v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LAA -1.5 With Ohtani on the mound, the Angels should easily dominate the Tigers in Thursday’s series opener. Detroit is in off a sweep of the Royals. But they are still 10 games below .500 and have been outscored by 62 runs over the course of their first 68 games. They did have a pair of four-game win streaks last month, but that’s as long a win streak as this team has had in 2021. So odds are that they are going to go down tonight. The Angels just got swept out in Oakland, but had won six in a row before that. Their last home series saw them sweep the Royals. Those three wins were by a total of 17 runs. Ohtani has a 1.85 ERA in his five home starts, so he should keep the Tigers at bay. Anthony Rendon is expected to return to the Angels’ lineup tonight, giving the offense a boost. This is the major league debut for Matt Manning of Detroit. He didn’t pitch all that well down in Triple-A (8.07 ERA with 11 home runs allowed), so why trust him here? This will be a multi-run win by the home team. Play on LA ANGELS -1.5 (RUN LINE) AAA | |||||||
06-17-21 | Nets v. Bucks -5 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE The Bucks seemed to have all the momentum heading into Game 5. They’d won the previous two games, plus James Harden and Kyrie Irving were both hurt for Brooklyn. Harden wound up suiting up Tuesday, but he did not play well (shot 1 of 10) and Milwaukee quickly jumped out to a 29-15 lead after one quarter of play. Their lead was 16 midway through the third, which is when Kevin Durant took over. Durant turned in a game for the ages with 49-17-10. But we don’t see him doing that again in Game 6 at Milwaukee. The Nets have lost all four games in Milwaukee this season, Irving is still out and Harden clearly isn’t 100 percent. So lay the points with the home team facing elimination. The Nets scored only 83 and 96 points in Games 3 and 4 here in Milwaukee. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
06-17-21 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 118 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER As we predicted, the Lightning evened this series up at a game apiece. They won Game 2 on Tuesday, 4-2, as they never trailed and were up three goals for most of the third period. That kind of performance was to be expected following a sluggish outing in Game 1. Now the series heads to Uniondale where the Islanders are extremely tough to beat (25-9 home record this year). So we’re going to back off Tampa Bay for a moment and look at the total instead. The Isles’ scoring does jump at home, but they only allow 2.1 goals/game here and we don’t see them scoring more than three goals tonight. This season, New York is 9-3 Under following a loss by two or more goals. Tampa has seen seven of its last nine games go Under and has only gone Over in back to back games one time in the playoffs. That was back in the first round series vs. Florida. So coming off a game that went Over, we’ll call for less scoring in Game 3. The Islanders have just two even strength goals in the two games. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-17-21 | Cubs v. Mets -119 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -119 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NYM We like the Mets to make it a four-game sweep over the Cubs tonight. Both of today’s starting pitchers - Kyle Hendricks for Chicago and Marcus Stroman for New York - enter this game with an 8-5 TSR. But Stroman has the lower ERA and WHIP, plus the benefit of pitching for the hotter team. Of course, right now there is a sense of “gloom” hanging over the Mets as they await the prognosis of Jacob deGrom, who left last night’s game (after three perfect innings) due to right shoulder soreness. But Stroman has also been a key piece of this rotation. While his 2.33 ERA is third best on his own team (behind deGrom and Taijuan Walker), it is ninth best in the whole National League. While it’s true that the Cubs have won six straight Hendricks’ starts, he has a 4.46 ERA, over two full points higher than Stroman. The Cubs have scored only seven runs in this series and were held to one hit until the ninth inning of yesterday’s game. The Mets have a 20-6 home record with the opponents averaging 2.1 runs/game! The Cubs are 14-20 on the road. Play on NY METS AAA | |||||||
06-16-21 | Phillies v. Dodgers -134 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -134 | 14 h 51 m | Show |
This is a 10* on LAD The Dodgers will look to make it three in a row over the Phillies tonight and finish off the sweep. We really like their chances of doing so. We had them in last night’s 5-3 win in what was the first full capacity game (for fans) at Chavez Ravine this season. The Dodgers have won seven of eight overall. Though they are a game behind the Giants, there’s really no denying who the oddsmakers would favor if the two NL West rivals were matched up. Just like there’s no denying who should be the favorite in this inter-divisional matchup. Clayton Kershaw is pitching tonight for Los Angeles. Believe it or not, the Phillies are the lone NL team to have a winning all-time record vs. Kershaw (5-4). But we don’t think that record matters much tonight as Kershaw is off a strong outing against Texas, which the Dodgers ended up winning 12-1. Kershaw allowed one unearned run and three hits in six innings. While Wheeler has been pretty good for Philadelphia, he’s no Kershaw and the Phillies’ road record (11-21) is a problem for them. So is Wheeler’s 5.87 career ERA vs. LA. This is a mismatch that is not being priced properly. Don’t overthink this one. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
06-16-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER After never trailing in seven consecutive playoff wins, Montreal fell behind quickly and never led in Game 1 of their Stanley Cup semifinal vs. Vegas. The Golden Knights got a 1st period goal from Shea Theodore and went on to win 4-1. You get the sense that the Habs are in over their heads in this series. The North Division was weak and now they are up against the best team in the NHL. The odds obviously reflect that. Vegas is once again a heavy favorite to win Game 2. We don’t want to lay that much juice, but we will play the Under again, just like we did in Game 1. Marc-Andre Fleury has a .927 save percentage in the playoffs. Since getting blitzed by Colorado in Game 1 of the last round, Fleury has allowed just 12 goals in six games. Montreal’s only real hope here is their goalie Carey Price stepping up. Price is certainly capable. He has a .929 save percentage in the playoffs. We do not see Vegas scoring another four goals in this one, which is the key. The Canadiens are 22-6-5 Under L33 games as a playoff underdog. That trend continues Wednesday as Game 2 should be even lower scoring than Game 1. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-16-21 | Orioles v. Indians -155 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND Cleveland continues to have its way with Baltimore as last night they handed the Orioles a 17th straight loss on the road. It was 7-2 on Tuesday after the Indians won the first game of the series 4-3. The MLB record for most consecutive road losses is 22, last matched in 1963. The Orioles have been incredibly sloppy at Progressive Field, committing six errors in the two games. When a bad team is sloppy in the field, they’ve got almost no chance of winning. Aaron Civale has a 10-3 team start record for Cleveland and will start Wednesday night. That TSR is very good. Only three pitchers in all of baseball have 11 team wins to their credit. Civale has been excellent in his last five starts as he’s 4-1 with a 2.83 ERA and only four walks. He struck out a season-best 11 batters last week vs. Seattle while allowing just one hit in eight scoreless innings. Keegan Akin goes for Baltimore. He did throw five scoreless innings vs. Cleveland in the previous series between the teams, a game the Orioles won 3-1. But it’s just too hard to trust him or his team right now. The O’s haven’t just lost 17 in a row on the road, they are 0-6 the L6 overall. They are 21-44 in the third game of a series after losing the first two. Play on CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
06-15-21 | Phillies v. Dodgers -167 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* on LA The Dodgers look to make it two in a row over the Phillies on Tuesday. They won the first game of the series, 3-1. They got only three hits, but two of them were home runs and that was all that was needed to beat a team that’s now just 11-20 on the road. Philadelphia had some momentum coming into this series. They’d won six of seven. But they aren’t likely to fare well against this opponent, which should still be considered the best team in baseball, no matter what the record is. Urias has a 10-3 team start record and 0.97 WHIP for LA. Eflin has posted a career-best ERA for Philadelphia, but is still winless in his last five starts and he has a 9.00 ERA at Dodger Stadium. Expect more offense by the home team tonight. They are 19-9 in home games when they homer at least once. They are 50-16 as a home favorite of -175 to -250 the previous three seasons. Play on LOS ANGELES AAA | |||||||
06-15-21 | Bucks v. Nets OVER 217 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The big surprise of this Eastern Conference semifinal is that all four games have stayed Under the total. Basically, ever since the first half of Game 1, scoring has come to a grinding halt between the Nets and Bucks. The four games haven’t just gone Under; they’ve all stayed Under by double digits. Game 1 stayed Under by 17.5 points, Game 2 stayed Under by 27 points, Game 3 stayed Under by a record-setting 66 points (!) and Game 4 stayed Under by 26 points. Brooklyn will also be without James Harden and Kyrie Irving for Game 5. So what we have is a somewhat unprecedented shift in the O/U line. We’re currently looking at more than a 20-point difference in where the number opened for Game 1 to what it is for Game 5. The value is now with the Over. Kevin Durant certainly can carry the scoring load for the Nets. He could easily go for 40+ tonight. Back at home, his teammates will shoot better than they have the previous two games. Milwaukee hasn’t shot the ball all that well either in this series and that can change in a heartbeat. We haven’t seen a total this low for either team in quite some time. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
06-15-21 | Islanders v. Lightning -193 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TB After dropping Game 1 at home, you’ve gotta figure Tampa Bay is going to come out flying for Game 2. Certainly we’re not alone in this assessment given how the money line has moved. Totally justifiable though as the Lightning haven’t lost back to back games in the playoffs. They are 7-2 this season when seeking to avenge a home loss and 18-5 seeking to avenge a loss of any kind. Off a game where they scored one goal or less, they have an 8-2 record in 2020-21. So all signs point to TB evening this Stanley Cup semifinal up. The Islanders average just 2.2 goals/game on the road, so you’re not getting any more scoring from them than what we saw in Game 1. Shots were even on Sunday, but NY is still allowing 37.2 per game in the playoffs. That’s a high number. Tampa Bay is a really solid home team and we just can’t see them losing two in a row on home ice. Head Coach Cooper said of the GM1 loss, “Our minds weren’t there.” That’s not going to be the case here. Over the last two postseasons, the Lightning are 10-0 SU off a loss. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
06-15-21 | Portugal -165 v. Hungary | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 307 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTUGAL Reigning European Champions Portugal will open group play against Hungry. Group F is the so-called “Group of Death” in this edition of the Euro Cup as it also includes Germany and France. That makes this a critical three point opportunity for A Selecao. Portugal is no stranger to success in the Euro Cup, not only having won the whole thing in 2016, but also having reached at least the quarterfinals in five of the last six. They come into Tuesday riding a six-match unbeaten run. In two friendlies earlier this month, they drew Spain 0-0 and crushed Israel 4-0. It was another scoreless draw with Hungary back in Euro 2016, but this time we think Ronaldo and company will just be too much. Hungary has some key injuries with RB Leipzig striker Szoboszlai and Zsolt Kalmar both ruled out. In 13 all-time head to head encounters between these two sides, Hungary has never been victorious. Portugal is one of the favorites to win this entire event and ahead of fixtures with Germany and France, they will be very hungry to start with a win. PLAY ON PORTUGAL AAA | |||||||
06-14-21 | Canadiens v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Vegas is a huge favorite to win Game 1 of this Stanley Cup semifinals, but after watching the Islanders pull an upset yesterday we’re in no rush to lay such a massive price with the Golden Knights. Plus, Montreal is clearly a team with momentum right now. They’re on a seven-game win streak where at no point have they trailed. The Canadiens have allowed just 2.18 goals per game in this improbable playoff run as goalie Carey Price has looked like his old self with a .935 save percentage and 1.97 goals against average. Only three power play goals have been allowed by the Habs in the playoffs on 31 chances. This will be their toughest test to date, however. Vegas is much better than anyone from the all-Canadian North Division. The Golden Knights just held Colorado to eight goals in the last four games. The Over might be 5-0 in the last five meetings, but these teams haven’t faced off since pre-pandemic. The Under is 22-6-4 in Montreal’s past 32 games as a playoff underdog. Vegas scored six goals in the close out game vs. the Avs, but is on a 5-1 Under run coming off a 5+ goal game. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
06-14-21 | Rays v. White Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER This should make for an excellent three-game series. We’ve got the first place team in the East and the first place team in the Central. For Monday’s opener, it should be an excellent pitching matchup as Glasnow opposes Lynn. Glasnow checks in with a 2.57 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. He’s been even better of late though with a 1.64 ERA and 0.82 WHIP the last three starts. He has 30 strikeouts in 22 innings and allowed only four runs. That said, Lance Lynn has perhaps been even more dominant. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in every start but one this season. He’s yet to allow more than three. Over his last seven starts, Lynn has given up a total of five earned runs. In the past eight games for both teams, the respective staffs have held the opposition to below a .210 batting average. Five of the last seven games have seen the White Sox give up two runs or less. Tampa has the best bullpen ERA and is 1.59 the past 17 games. Given all of the above, how do you not take the Under here? Play on UNDER AAA |
Service | Profit |
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Ricky Tran | $756 |
ProSportsPicks | $632 |
Joseph D'Amico | $510 |
Joey Tron | $450 |
Tom Macrina | $399 |
Nick Parsons | $344 |
Sean Murphy | $306 |
Jack Jones | $303 |
William Burns | $233 |
Dan Kaiser | $220 |