Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-29-19 | Seahawks v. Cardinals UNDER 48.5 | Top | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 40 h 28 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the UNDER We like the Seattle-Arizona game to go Under too. Sure, we talked a good bit about the Seahawks putting up a lot of yards last week and the Cardinals defense being down both of its starting corners. But Seattle can't score enough to send this one over by itself. Their defense played better against the Saints than the final score indicated. We went through this in the analysis on the side. But New Orleans scored two non-offensive touchdowns. Arizona did give up 4 TD passes to Kyle Allen last week, but should play better this week. The offense hasn't scored more than 24 in regulation this year and their total points would look a lot worse if not for the 4th quarter comeback they had vs. the Lions. The Under is 21-9 in Arizona's last 30 home games. It is also 11-5 the last 16 times Seattle gave up 30 or more points in its last game. Play UNDER Seattle-Arizona AAA | |||||||
09-29-19 | Reds -115 v. Pirates | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 4 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCINNATI The Reds may not have improved to the level they desired for 2019, but this is a team on the rise. Expect them to be a trendy “sleeper” for 2020. The pitching staff is good as only three teams in the National League have allowed less runs. They probably do need to add a “bat” in the offseason as they scored the 4th fewest runs among NL clubs and were last in the division in that regard. But they did win 4-2 on Saturday, beating a Pirates team whose future outlook is nowhere near as bright. Pittsburgh fell to last in the Central this year and probably will be there again at this time next year. Nothing is on the line Sunday at PNC Park (except pride) and although yesterday was their first win in nine tries here this season, we expect Cincinnati to be the ones to close out the season with a win. Does starter Tyler Mahle have the most inspiring numbers? Hardly. But, even though Trevor Bauer was originally going to start this game, there is a reason that the Reds are still favored today. It’s a simple one. They are the better TEAM. Trevor Williams, who starts for Pittsburgh today, can’t be trusted. He has a 5.58 ERA and 1.44 WHIP this season and those numbers have been even worse the last seven starts. Williams has allowed 4 HRs in his last two starts as well. Reds end the year on a high note. AAA | |||||||
09-29-19 | Redskins v. Giants -3 | Top | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 38 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW YORK With the New York media tripping all over itself in an effort to fawn over rookie Daniel Jones, one might think this could be an ideal spot to fade the public sentiment and go against the Giants. Especially now, since RB Saquon Barkley is going to miss several games. With Barkley relegated to a spectator on the bench, Jones (in his 1st career start) led the Giants to an improbable come from behind 32-31 victory over the Buccaneers last week. But if there's a team (besides Miami) that the Giants deserve to be favored over in this spot, it's Washington. The Redskins are on a short week after a diastrous effort Monday night left them at 0-3. At home, they trailed the Bears 28-3 at the half and eventually lost 31-15. Washington is a complete mess right now. QB Keenum sprained his foot in the loss Monday night. He's expected to play, but backup Colt McCoy is hurt too. That could leave the Redskins own rookie, Dwayne Haskins, as the only option. But according to most, he's not ready to be a NFL starter yet. The same could be said for most players on the Redskins defense right now. They've given up at least 31 points in every game. So Jones should have another big game. Washington has won just 3 of its last 14 NFC East games. They are just 3-8 their last 11 visits to the Giants, getting outscored by 65 points in those games. They are a mess while the G-Men finally have some momentum. Not only should the Giants be favored, they'll cover. Play on NY GIANTS AAA | |||||||
09-29-19 | Patriots -6.5 v. Bills | Top | 16-10 | Loss | -115 | 37 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW ENGLAND The Patriots and Bills are both 3-0, but don't expect this early season showdown to necessarily be a playoff preview. Buffalo has beaten the Jets, Giants and Bengals so far. You definitely won't be seeing any of those teams in the postseason. Then again, the same could be said for New England's first three opponents, which includes Miami. Last week saw the Patriots play the Jets and while the final score was 30-14, it easily could have been 30-0. The New England defense has still not allowed a touchdown this year as the Jets two scores came from special teams and defense. Through three games, the Patriots have outscored teams by 89 points. The Bills have outscored opponents by just 19 points. That's why New England remains such a sizable road favorite in this spot. That and the fact they have dominated this AFC East rivalry, winning 42 of the 58 meetings since Tom Brady came onto the scene in 2001. They've also taken the last five meetings, winning all of them by at least 12 points. Josh Allen is just starting his second year as the Bills QB. He makes a lot of errors. New England has won 17 straight times when facing a first or second year starting QB. Prior to last week's win over Cincinnati, the Bills had been 0-4 SU and ATS when off two straight wins. They didn't cover against the Bengals, a winless team mind you, and almost lost the game. Again, the Patriots have allowed 17 points in three games. Play on NEW ENGLAND AAA | |||||||
09-28-19 | Washington State v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 100 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on UTAH Both Washington State and Utah suffered crushing defeats last week. Utah's came first and was not all that out of the ordinary. It's the kind of upset we see at least once a week. While having a 27-16 edge in first downs over your opponent and still losing is disappointing, there's no shame in losing to USC at the Coliseum. In fact, it's been over 100 years since Utah last won there. One thing is for certain and that's it won't be another 100 years until they finally win at the Coliseum. What happened to Washington State late Saturday though was something you'll rarely, if ever, see again. Despite 63 points, 750 yards of total offense and NINE touchdown passes from QB Gordon, the Cougars LOST to UCLA - at home. They blew a 32-point lead in the second half in what was the third largest comeback (in terms of point margin) in NCAA history. Washington State was the first team to allow 50 points in a second half in 15 seasons. Only one team can bounce back from these two horrible defeats. We think it will be Utah and that they'll cover the spread to boot. The Utes have lost four in a row to Wazzu - by an average of 6 points/game. But this year's team is better irregardless of what we saw last Friday night in LA. And they are still the better team here even if RB Moss can't suit up. Washington State was a pointspread juggernaut last season, but has now failed to cover three straight games. Playing on the road after allowing 50 points in 19 minutes is hardly ideal. Lay it! Play on UTAH AAA | |||||||
09-28-19 | NC State v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 49 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FLORIDA STATE It took four tries, but Florida State finally looked impressive for an entire game in 2019. They jumped on Louisville last week, racing out to a 21-0 lead by the end of the first quarter. They held on to win 35-24 and cover as a 6.5-point favorites. Of course, starting well hasn't actually been an issue this year for the Seminoles. They led Boise State 31-13 (lost 36-31), UL Monroe 21-0 (won 45-44) and Virginia 24-17 (lost 31-24). They easily could be 4-0 and the narrative surrounding the program and coach Taggart would certainly be a whole lot different, wouldn't it? We're going to call for the turnaround to continue this week, facing North Carolina State, who is a suspect 3-1 team. They've beaten East Carolina, Western Carolina and Ball State. But the only time they've ventured off campus, they were beaten 44-27 by West Virginia, a game they were actually expected to win by seven. The Wolfpack are only 1-5 ATS their last six road games and 1-7 ATS following a straight up win. The home team has won this game 9 of the past 13 times. Florida State has big-time revenge after losing 47-28 in Raleigh. Play on FLORIDA STATE AAA | |||||||
09-28-19 | Kansas State +5 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 13-26 | Loss | -109 | 97 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 8* play on KANSAS STATE Under normal circumstances, this would set up as a very even affair between two teams looking to move up the Big 12 pecking order. But the circumstances are not normal this week in Stillwater as Oklahoma State is off a tough loss (to Texas) and visiting Kansas State is off a bye. The latter certainly seems to be underrated right now. Kansas State has already beaten Mississippi State on the road and is 3-0 ATS. Oklahoma State not only lost in Austin last week, they also struggled (for a half) in Tulsa the week before. The underdog brings the better defense, giving up 12.7 points/game to OSU's 26.8. Also, the Wildcats are 7-3 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points while the Cowboys are 2-7 ATS as favorites of -3.5 to -10 with five outright losses. Kansas State is also 11-4 ATS as a single digit road underdog since 2016. Though the home team has won 13 of the previous 16 meetings, Kansas State has won the last two - as a 20-point underdog and as an eight-point underdog. It may say something that the unranked team (Oklahoma State) is favored here, but they are at home. Or it may mean the oddsmakers simply haven't caught onto the fact that Kansas State is a lot better than expected for first year coach Chris Kleiman, who built an empire at the FCS level with North Dakota State and is translating well (so far) to the FBS level. Play on KANSAS STATE AAA | |||||||
09-28-19 | Marlins v. Phillies -161 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA It took awhile, but the Phillies snapped their six-game losing streak last night by beating the Marlins 5-4 in 15 innings. That result is something we'd called for as Philadelphia came into Friday below .500 for the first time all season. We made the case that Miami is an ideal opponent for them to wrap the year up against and that mindset hasn't changed in the last 24 hours. The Marlins are the NL's worst team in just about every department as they are 56-104 and have been outscored by 188 runs. The Phillies at least have the motivation of trying to finish above .500 for the year, which they can do by winning the final two games. After a 15-inning loss, Miami is hardly likely to come back with a strong effort on the road. Starter Caleb Smith pitched well in two previous starts vs. the Phillies this year, but both were all the way back in April. Recently, Smith has struggled with a 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP his last seven starts. He's also struggled most of the year on the road. So have the Marlins as a team as their record away from home is now 26-53 including 9-24 as an underdog of +125 to +175. The Phillies Zach Eflin should have a solid start tonight. Prior to getting beat up by Washington on Monday, Eflin hadn't allowed more than 3 ER in six straight starts. The Phillies are 24-14 this season as home favorites of -125 to -175 and 48-28 in that role since 2017. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA | |||||||
09-28-19 | Virginia v. Notre Dame OVER 48.5 | Top | 20-35 | Win | 100 | 93 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Virginia-Notre Dame After suffering a tough loss to Georgia last Saturday night, Notre Dame should resume scoring in bunches against a Virginia team that comes in ranked a highly questionable 18th overall. The Fighting Irish scored 101 points in their first two games including 66 in the only one played so far in South Bend. They were held to 17 by Georgia, but that's an elite defense they were facing there. Virginia certainly doesn't have a bad defense as they've yet to allow more than 24 points in a 4-0 start. But this number is too low based on what we see for most Notre Dame games. Even against Georgia, the total was 58. Virginia has scored at least 28 points in every game, so it may take a big number from Notre Dame to win this one comfortably, let alone win it at all. The Over is 7-3 in Virginia's last 10 non-conference games. Last week's vs. Old Dominion featured a slow start, but once the Cavaliers offense got going, it wasn't going to be denied. The Over is also 6-1 the last seven times Virginia has played on the road against a team with a winning home record. Notre Dame isn't about to score 66 again this week, like they did two weeks ago vs. New Mexico. But they should score plenty as they look to bounce back from the loss to Georgia. Virginia won't go quietly though. Play OVER Virginia-Notre Dame AAA | |||||||
09-28-19 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH -1 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 90 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI (OH) Miami of Ohio did not fare well in the non-conference portion of the schedule, winning just one of four games and that one victory came against a FCS opponent. But the three losses were to: Iowa, Cincinnati and Ohio State, all games where they were an underdog of at least 17 points. So really, we can't say we're all that surprised to see the RedHawks coming into Saturday with a 1-3 record. But what we are surprised about is that Buffalo beat Temple last week, 38-22, as a two-touchdown underdog. Over was our call in that game, but we certainly didn't expect the Bulls to win it on field. Then again, the week before they lost at Liberty as a 5.5-point favorite. Because most of the country saw Miami lose 76-5 to Ohio State last week, there certainly won't be a rush to bet the RedHawks this week. But we love the spot. Over its last 22 MAC games, Miami is actually 16-6 straight up AND against the spread. Buffalo has not played nearly the kind of schedule that Miami has and averaged just 15 points in two road games. Miami has gotten to play just once at home and scored 48 on Tennessee Tech. Buffalo had only 279 total yards of offense last week, but Temple turned it over four times, so that's how the Bulls won that one. One touchdown came from the defense and two more came on drives that started in the red zone. Miami will take better care of the football and win this one. Play MIAMI OH AAA | |||||||
09-27-19 | Hamilton +5.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 33-13 | Win | 100 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HAMILTON We still have several weeks left in the CFL regular season, but three teams have already clinched playoff spots and these are two of them. Winnipeg is tied with Calgary a top the Western Division with matching 9-4 records. Hamilton is 10-3 and is running away from the rest of the East. The last time these division leaders met was Week 7. The Blue Bombers entered that game undefeated (5-0), but the Ti-Cats dealt them their first defeat, 23-15 as a 1-pt home dog. Hamilton won that game despite losing QB Jeremiah Masoli in the first quarter. Simple math reveals that Winnipeg has gone just 4-4 its last eight games, but three of the losses have come by a total of four points. The Ti-Cats are the only team to beat them by more than a two-point margin all year. One of those Winnipeg losses came last week, 38-37 at Montreal, as they blew a 24-point lead. Interestingly, Hamilton's three losses this year have been by a total of 13 points. So we have every reason to expect a close one here, which makes taking the points logical. Both teams have had to turn to backup quarterbacks this year with the starters injured, so it's impressive that they are still leading their respective divisions. But Dane Evans (Hamilton) seems to have played better than Chris Streveler (Winnipeg). Streveler is a much different type QB than Matt Nichols. The Bombers are undefeated at home, but the Ti-Cats have the best inter-division record in the league. Gotta take the points in this one. Play on HAMILTON AAA | |||||||
09-27-19 | Penn State v. Maryland UNDER 60.5 | Top | 59-0 | Win | 100 | 73 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER After two games, the Maryland hype train was in full effect. They'd put up 142 points in a pair of wins, one of them 63-20 over Syracuse. But that hype train then got stuck in the station in a 20-17 road loss to Temple two weeks ago. We'll now get to see how Mike Locksley gets his team to perform off a loss. The Terrapins will face a Penn State squad that had its own impressive first two weeks on offense before playing a game vs. Pitt that they easily could have lost. They only beat the Panthers 17-10 and that came on the heels of a lackluster first half the week prior against Buffalo. The Nittany Lions have destroyed the Terps each of the last two years, outscoring them 104 to 6. No you didn't read that incorrectly. We think the last game for each team showed that neither offense is invincible here. We're not going to be seeing the video game-like numbers from the first two weeks. Both defenses might be underrated as Penn State has given up only 30 total points in three games while Maryland has given up just 40. The Terps last four Friday games have all stayed Under. Play UNDER Penn State-Maryland AAA | |||||||
09-27-19 | Marlins v. Phillies -161 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA Philadelphia wraps up a very disappointing season this weekend at home. This was supposed to be a playoff year after they went out and signed Bryce Harper. But instead, they'll finish with a very similar record to 2018. In fact, they are actually now a game below .500 (79-80), thanks to a six-game losing streak which is their second longest all season. But at least they get to face Miami to end the year. The Marlins are one of four 100+ loss teams in baseball and the only one in the National League. They have been out of contention from the start and no one has disputed that it's they who have been the NL's worst all year long. Vince Velasquez goes tonight for Philly. His team start record is 12-10. That included four wins in a row prior to him losing in Cleveland on Sunday. We actually went against him in that start, noting how he might "cool off." But three of the four runs he allowed in that game were unearned. Pablo Lopez has a 7-13 TSR for the Marlins with five of those losses coming in his last six outings. The only exception was his last start. But that was at home. On the road, you're looking at a 2-7 TSR and a 7.27 ERA. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA | |||||||
09-27-19 | Reds v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Two NL Central teams conclude their seasons in PNC Park this weekend as the Pirates host the Reds. While these are the final games for both sides, they probably feel very different about their respective 2019 seasons. The Reds appear to be a team on the rise, with some strong pitching, as they're going to NOT lose 90+ games for the 1st time since 2014. That said, they've lost the last four games. Pittsburgh has fallen hard this year as they've lost 91 games and will finish last in the division. Their future outlook seems a lot more bleak, though they did just shockingly sweep the Cubs here at home in their last series. The Pirates often do allow a lot of runs, but Cincinnati comes in having scored just 30 in its last 12 contests. For the season, the Reds are bottom six in baseball in runs scored. But they are top eight in runs allowed. Something will have to give with the top Over team (Pittsburgh) facing the top Under team (Cincinnati). Reds starter DeSclafani has a 1.89 ERA and 0.58 WHIP his previous three starts, so that's fairly "on brand." We'll hope that Pirates starter Brault can improve upon his recent efforts thanks to facing a team he held scoreless back in May. Brault does tend to pitch better at home. Play UNDER Cincinnati-Pittsburgh AAA | |||||||
09-27-19 | Duke v. Virginia Tech -2.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -118 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on VA TECH While you may not yet be sold on Virginia Tech this year, don't be surprised if Friday in Blacksburg proves to be the Hokies "coming out party." They turned it over five times in their only loss, which was on the road. But they have won 15 of the last 21 games at Lane Stadium. With 10 starters back from last year, the defense should be solid in Bud Foster's final season as coordinator. This team won 19 games in Justin Fuente's first two years. They dropped to six wins in 2018, but that included one over a Duke team that had a future NFL starting quarterback in Daniel Jones. The game was in Durham and not close as VT won 31-14 as a three-point dog. The Blue Devils aren't as good this year despite easily defeating their last two opponents. (They lost 42-3 to Alabama in the opener). Virginia Tech has won 16 of the last 18 meetings overall including three straight. The last two wins have been by a combined 38 points. The Hokies have covered their last five Friday night games. Play on VIRGINIA TECH AAA | |||||||
09-26-19 | Eagles +5 v. Packers | Top | 34-27 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PHILADELPHIA The Eagles are 1-2, not to mention a banged up football team right now. Down both starting receivers last week, they lost at home to the Lions 27-24. But as you can see from that score, offense wasn't really the problem. Even with DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffery out, the Eagles had more first downs than the Lions did and outgained them on the day. The problems were special teams and turnovers. Detroit returned a kickoff for a TD early in the game and would not have won without it. Philly also fumbled twice and both times it led to a Lions field goal. Then there was the Eagles failure to take advantage of a Lions special teams miscue. Late in the game, they blocked a Matt Prater field goal attempt. Despite starting at midfield, Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense could not move the ball into scoring position, instead turning it over on downs. Jeffery is expected back this week as is TE Dallas Goebert, who was limited to just nine snaps against the Lions. Green Bay is a perfect 3-0 straight up and against the spread, but a little lucky to be in this position considering they have been outgained in every game. Key for them is being +6 in turnovers as the defense has been much better than expected. But we don't see the Pack covering for a third straight time as home favorites. As an underdog, the Eagles are 9-4 ATS the last two seasons with eight outright victories. We'll take the points. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA | |||||||
09-26-19 | Navy v. Memphis -10.5 | Top | 23-35 | Win | 100 | 50 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MEMPHIS Memphis quickly established itself as the potential "Group of 5" team to get a New Year's Day Bowl slot when they beat Ole Miss in Week 1. The Tigers are now 3-0 and surprisingly it's been the defensive side of the ball that's been more impressive. Sure, the offense scored a combined 97 points against Southern and South Alabama the last two games. But the defense has given up only 40 points all year, thereby reducing the total PPG scored in Memphis' games to just under 51, which is down from 75 a year ago. This Thursday they welcome in Navy for a key AAC West showdown. Navy has played only two games, both against lesser competition (Holy Cross, East Carolina). As you would expect, the Midshipmen didn't struggle to win either game. They beat Holy Cross by 38 and ECU by 32. After a down year last season (finished 3-10 SU!), Navy is back to running the ball effectively as they're averaging 371 yards/game on the ground. But we look for them to get slowed down here by this vastly improved Memphis defense. This group held Ole Miss, an SEC team, to 10 points and 173 yards. The most yards gained by any Memphis opponent so far is 258 and that was, surprisingly, Southern. But even there, the Tigers defense performed better than you think. Southern gained 58 yards on its first two snaps, than only 200 the rest of the game on 3.6 yards per play. Southern also scored a defensive TD in that game. While conference play will ultimately determine if this Memphis' D is the "real deal" or not, we think it is and the Tigers closed last year by covering six of their last seven games against American opposition. They are simply the much better team here. Play on MEMPHIS AAA | |||||||
09-26-19 | Rockies v. Giants -122 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the GIANTS This has been a tightly contested series thus far. Colorado won Tuesday's game 8-5, but not before the teams combined to use a MLB-record 25 different pitchers in a 16-inning affair. Then last night, the Giants gained a measure of revenge by winning in walkoff fashion, 2-1. For Colorado, a team with nothing to play for, it'll be tough to come back with today's game taking place in the afternoon. It's not like the Rockies are a good road team either. They're actually quite horrible as last night's loss dropped them to 28-52 away from Coors Field. Kyle Freeland gets the start for them here and he hasn't been effective all year. He's 3-11 in 21 starts with a 6.84 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. He'd missed about a month before returning last Friday and pitching just two innings against the Dodgers. While the team has won two of his three starts against San Francisco this year, we can't say that Freeland has been all that effective in them. It's pretty crazy to think that Colorado made the playoffs last year. They very well could end up having the biggest drop in wins (of any team) this year. The Giants are also out of it, but they're playing for manager Bruce Bochy this week as he's set to retire. Thursday starter Tyler Beede has had a pretty good September with a 3.80 ERA in four starts. It was looking even better before he ran into a good Atlanta team last weekend. But the Rockies don't hit like the Braves. Not on the road at least. They are 28th in runs scored on the road, ahead of only Detroit and Miami. They are also last in team batting average (.230) and 29th (next to last) in OPS at .679. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA | |||||||
09-25-19 | A's -204 v. Angels | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on OAKLAND So it now looks like the A's will be going with Frankie Montas as the starter tonight. Originally, it was going to be Michael Fiers. Montas returns under the most auspicious of circumstances as he's coming off an 80-game suspension for violating MLB's drug policy. Perhaps the drugs were doing their job because Montas was 9-2 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.12 WHIP before getting caught. You hope the results don't go away as a result. Montas has faced the Angels three times this year and is 2-0. This is a really critical spot for him to step into as the A's lost last night, reducing their lead for the Wild Card to a half game over Tampa and one game over Cleveland. (Only two of those three teams make it). Fortunately, it may not matter how Montas performs tonight. Because if Andrew Heaney continues pitching the way he has of late for the Angels, Montas will have plenty of cushion. Heaney has given up six runs in back to back starts while allowing a total of five home runs. He's had some good stretches this year, but the only start against Oakland saw him give up five runs. Note that the A's have dropped two straight games now. The last time they lost three in a row was July. They rebound tonight. Play on OAKLAND AAA | |||||||
09-25-19 | Red Sox -139 v. Rangers | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON Anytime the Red Sox don't make the playoffs, the season is ultimately failure in Boston. So chalk up 2019 in the failure category as last year's World Series champs won't even be going back to the postseason this year. But most teams in the league would still love to be as good as Boston is. The Red Sox will likely still end up winning 85 games this year and they have a +75 run differential. That's a lot better than Texas, who is heading towards its third straight losing season. The Red Sox beat the Rangers yesterday, 12-10, in the opener of what is their final series on the road. Winning on the road hasn't been the problem for Boston this year. They are actually 45-34 in all road games. It's a losing record at Fenway Park that ultimately hurt them the most. The fact Boston won yesterday despite a rare bad start from Eduardo Rodriguez is good news. The Red Sox scored all 12 of their runs in the first five innings. They only homered once. This park in Arlington can be kind to hitters and the man starting for Texas tonight, Kolby Allard, knows that all too well as he sports a 7.36 ERA and 1.84 WHIP in three home starts. Rick Porcello is having a bad year for the Red Sox, but the veteran should be able to outpitch the rookie Allard here. Boston has won five of Porcello's last six starts on the road and they've also won the last five times he's gone against the Rangers. Play on BOSTON AAA | |||||||
09-25-19 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -107 | 11 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Could this end up being a FIVE-game sweep for the Nationals? (Series wraps up tomorrow) That's looking like more and more of a reality after sweeping yesterday's doubleheader with the Phillies. That result officiall put Washington into the playoffs while simultaneously eliminating Philadelphia. That's a huge motivational edge here as the Nationals try and lock down home field advantage for the NL Wild Card Game against whichever team (St. Louis or Milwaukee) doesn't win the Central Division. They currently have a one game edge over Milwaukee in that department entering Wednesday when they look to make it four straight over Philly. They've outscored the Phillies 17-8 in the three games so far and what makes this series result all the more sweeter is that it's come against former teammate Bryce Harper. Anibal Sanchez will get the call for tonight's game. While he's pitched well recently, Sanchez has struggled against the Phillies this year. He's faced them four times and is winless with a 4.22 ERA. The Over is 6-2 in Sanchez's last eight starts overall. Drew Smyly will start here for the Phillies, who are now lame ducks for the final six games. We don't see any reason why Smyly, who has a 5.89 ERA and 1.58 WHIP for two teams this season (Phillies & Pirates), would come up big in this situation. The Nationals already average 5.5 runs per game at home. Play on OVER Philadelphia-Washington AAA | |||||||
09-24-19 | Rockies v. Giants -169 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -169 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the GIANTS The Rockies and Giants are both playing out the string. But at least the Giants have some reason to celebrate as they honor departing manager Bruce Bochy, the longest active tenured skipper in the sport. They've also got Madison Bumgarner on the mound and that's a sizable advantage on the field. It may not have been Bumgarner's best year and his recent results certainly haven't been up to par. But it's still been a decent year overall. Bumgarner has been especially good here at home where he is 6-2 and has a 2.72 ERA/0.92 WHIP. He's made 18 starts total here and the Giants have won 12 of them. The Rockies are not a good road team. Their record away from home is 27-51 and they score a lot less than at Coors Field. The drop is more than two full runs per game. It doesn't help having Jeff Hoffman and his 6.71 ERA/1.62 WHIP on the mound either. It's somewhat shocking how sharp the decline has been for the Rockies this year. It's a 24 win drop, these last six games nothwithstanding. If you're San Francisco, what's not to like about Bumgarner going against this team? Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA | |||||||
09-24-19 | Twins v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Minnesota is very likely to win the AL Central and go into the playoffs as the "3-seed" (would face either Yankees or Astros in LDS). Detroit has been nowhere near a playoff discussion this season and will soon be done playing games. They are 49.5 games behind the Twins. They have scored 339 fewer runs. No team in baseball has scored fewer runs. That leads us to playing the Under in this divisional matchup. The Tigers have averaged only 2.6 runs/game over the past week and gone five in a row without scoring more than three. That was before Sunday's 6-3 win over the White Sox. If they do have a chance of winning Tuesday, it'll be due to starter Spencer Turnbull. He has been one of the few reliable options in this rotation. Turnbull allowed only one run in his last start - with eight strikeouts and no walks - which ended up being a 2-1 loss in Cleveland. Unfortunately, Turnbull and the Tigers will face Jake Odorizzi. In 11 career starts vs. Detroit, Odorizzi is 5-1 with a 3.25 ERA. The Under is 12-3-1 in Odorizzi's past 16 starts overall including the last five on the road. The Under is also 5-1 in the Twins last six series openers. The Under is 6-1-1 the Tigers last eight games overall. Play UNDER Minnesota-Detroit AAA | |||||||
09-23-19 | Bears v. Redskins +5.5 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON The Redskins will look to reverse the franchise's "curse" on Monday Night Football. Of all the things that have plagued this franchise in recent years, an 0-6 SU/ATS mark in the NFL's marquee primetime game is definitely one of them. This year, the team comes into its MNF appearance at 0-2 with a couple of division losses to Philadelphia and Dallas and in desperate need of a spark. Getting points against a Chicago team that struggles to score may be just what they need. The Bears are lucky not to be 0-2 themselves as they got a last second 50+ yard field goal to beat Denver 16-14 last week. That was after losing the season opener 10-3 to the rival Packers. After going 12-5 ATS last season (including playoff loss), the Bears are 0-2 ATS to start 2019. They were favored in both games. A second straight game as a road favorite seems dicey for a team with a struggling quarterback. Mitchell Trubisky has been very bad so far this year, ranking 32nd in both yards per pass attempt and passer rating. He's completing only 58.3% of his passes. As we saw in multiple games yesterday, 0-2 teams often show up in these situations and are good bets when taking points. Not sure if it means anything, but the Redskins have beaten the Bears seven straight times dating back to the 2003 season. They are 13-2 SU head to head since 1989. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
09-23-19 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -166 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 9* on TORONTO We have a record-tying four 100+ loss teams in MLB this year, three of them hailing from the American League. The least surprising member of the quartet would have to be Baltimore, who we won't hesitate to buck here. The Orioles lost 115 games a season ago, so their 51 wins this year actually represent improvement from 2018. Yet there is no denying this remains one of the worst teams in baseball. Toronto has lost 93 games this year, but is actually significantly better than all the 100+ loss teams as well as some of the 90+ loss ones as well. At least if you go by run differential as the Blue Jays have only been outscored by 101 runs this year. That may sound like a lot, but there are actually eight teams across baseball with worse run differentials. Baltimore has been outscored by 264 runs, easily the second worst overall and only ahead of Detroit. For today's series opener, the Blue Jays start Clay Buchholz, who knows the Orioles quite well from spending all that time in Boston. Buchholz actually struggled agianst the O's last week, but the Jays won the game 11-10 and swept the series. Baltimore made an overnight pitching change here going from Dylan Bundy to Chandler Shepard, which is a downgrade based on Shepard's lone appearance, last week vs. the Blue Jays in which he gave up three runs in four innings. The Orioles did win on Sunday, but haven't won two straight since August. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
09-22-19 | Rams v. Browns +4 | Top | 20-13 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND Doesn't seem like there's many takers on the Browns this week, but they look like the right side to us Sunday night. Take away one bad quarter against the Titans and this defense has played really well so far. While it's certainly a big step up facing Jared Goff and the Rams, they'll have a fired up crowd rooting them on as this is the first Sunday night game in Cleveland in 11 years. The Rams had a close win (3 points) over Carolina in Week 1, then knocked Drew Brees out last week, turning a game with the Saints into an noncompetitive affair. Believe it or not, the Browns offense is actually averaging more yards per play (6.3) than the Rams are (5.7) through two games. Cleveland is 4-1 ATS as a home dog since last year began. After being such a popular team with the public to start the year, the Browns don't seem to have much support this week. But we think that's the perfect time to take them as we can smell a potential upset in this one. Grab the points. Play on CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
09-22-19 | Phillies v. Indians -124 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on CLEVELAND It's going to be a busy night in Cleveland with both the Browns and Indians hosting big games. With all due respect to the Browns, who are hosting their 1st Sunday night game in 11 years, the Indians' game is much more important to the immediate future of the city. That's because with just seven games to go in the regular season, the Tribe finds itself one game out of the Wild Card. They lost yesterday (9-4 to the Phillies) while the Rays once again beat the Red Sox in extra innings. With only two series remaining after tonight, Cleveland simply cannot afford to fall two games back. They know the Rays next series is against the Yankees, so there's potential to make up some ground there. But first, it's time to handle their own business, which means beating a Phillies team that is basically out of contention at this point. The good news is Cleveland has gone 40-23 this year off a loss. More good news: their starter Adam Plutko has a 3-0 team start record his last three starts as he's allowed just two runs in each. Plutko also has a 0.91 WHIP at home. The team is 6-2 when he starts at Progressive Field. Phillies starter Velasquez may also have a 3-0 TSR in his last three starts, but a big difference is a 1.86 WHIP in them. So the Phillies have been awfully lucky to win those games. The fact that this is Cleveland's home finale adds to the motivation. The Phillies have a losing road record on the year and we can't see them winning two straight here. Play on CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
09-22-19 | Giants v. Bucs -6.5 | Top | 32-31 | Loss | -109 | 122 h 27 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TAMPA BAY Obviously, the big story here is the Giants moving on from Eli Manning and going with rookie Daniel Jones as the starting quarterback. Does it even matter though? The Giants are a bad team that has beaten by double digits in both games. Also, have we forgotten just how divisive of a draft choice Jones was? Many respected minds thought he was a HUGE reach at #6 overall. Two good preseason performances aren't enough to sway us. Something else not helping the Giants case here is that Tampa Bay is on extra rest. The Buccaneers picked up their first win of the season last Thursday by going to Carolina and upsetting the Panthers. Unlike the Giants, the Bucs defense seems a lot better this year. Credit goes to new coordinator Todd Bowles. Tampa is allowing 1.5 yards less per play compared to last year. They've also given up only 31 points in two games. The Giants have scored just 31 points in two games. New York has also lost 13 of 17 road games and is just 1-8 SU in the month of September (2-7 ATS). This is the 6th time in 7 seasons they've started 0-2. Jones alone isn't enough to save this Giants team, if he is even capable of saving anything. One could argue that the Giants may not even be salvageable. Lay the points. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
09-22-19 | Ravens v. Chiefs -6.5 | Top | 28-33 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on KANSAS CITY We used both of these teams in Week 1. The Ravens crushed the Dolphins 59-10. The Chiefs had no problem beating the Jaguars 40-26. Both are now 2-0. This will be hyped as an early season showdown in the AFC with the winner probably deemed as the conference's top challenger to the Patriots. But there is a reason to still be a little skeptical of Baltimore. They have played two poor teams to get to 2-0. Obviously, Miami is the worst team in the league. Arizona, who they barely beat last week, isn't far ahead and has a rookie QB. Had the Cardinals not settled for three field goals inside the Ravens' five-yard line last week, they easily could have pulled the upset. The Chiefs two victims, Jacksonville and Oakland, aren't exactly great either. But we know the Chiefs can beat the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. They did it last year. Now that took overtime, but they did win. We expect a larger margin of victory this year. Strangely, the Chiefs scored all four touchdowns last week in the second quarter. They scored 68 points in the first six quarters of the year before shockingly hanging a "goose egg" in the second half vs. the Raiders. But one positive was the defensive pitching a shutout in the final three quarters. They held the Raiders to 5.2 yards per pass attempt The Chiefs are on a 9-0 ATS run in September and 16-5-1 ATS in Week 3. This is their home opener. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA | |||||||
09-22-19 | Raiders v. Vikings OVER 43 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 119 h 22 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER The Vikings and Raiders have combined to go Under in all four of their games so far. But we anticipate a bit higher scoring affair for them as they meet in Week 3. Minnesota had a very efficient 28 points in a Week 1 win over Atlanta. That was at home and they return to TCF Bank Stadium this week. They should have scored more than 16 last week, but Kirk Cousins threw a BAD interception against the Packers, basically costing his team the game. The Vikings offense actually averaged 7.0 yards per play in that game, but went 0 for 2 in the red zone and turned it over a total of four times. The defense was torched by Aaron Rodgers early, but then kept the team in the game as long as they could. While Minnesota's D didn't allow any points over the last 44 minutes, Oakland failed to score at all in the final three quarters last week vs. Kansas City. That after a 10-point fourth quarter and efficient Week 1 win (over Denver) of their own. Strangely, the Raiders defense allowed four touchdowns in the second quarter vs. the Chiefs, but no points at all in the other three quarters. They still allowed almost 7.0 yards/play though. The Raiders are 4-0 Over their last four games on field turf. Play OVER Oakland-Minnesota AAA | |||||||
09-21-19 | Notre Dame +15 v. Georgia | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is taking on a top five opponent (Georgia) here and we know what happens when that's the case. The Fighting Irish, more often than not, fold like a cheap tent in this situation as they are 4-13 ATS. The last 19 times the Irish faced a top five foe that is outscoring its opponents by at least 20.6 points/game, they've lost 18 of those games. All but four of those 18 losses have been by double digits. Ten of them have come by at least 20 points. Four of the losses have come during the Brian Kelly regime and three were by two touchdowns or more. We all remember that CFP semifinal game last January against Clemson right? The Irish lost that 30-3. So the Irish might as well not even leave South Bend right? Wrong! Because of that poor reputation in these kind of games, this number is inflated this week. Notre Dame catching two touchdowns, even on the road, is a bargain as this spread should be no higher than 10 points in our estimation. Georgia will likely come in overconfident and struggle early. The Dawgs have yet to be tested this year and say what you will about Notre Dame, they're a whole heck of a lot better than Vanderbilt, Murray State and Arkansas State. The Irish have only played twice, so they're the fresher of the two teams. Two years ago, they lost by only a point in South Bend to UGA. It'll be another close one Saturday night. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA | |||||||
09-21-19 | Nebraska v. Illinois +13.5 | Top | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ILLINOIS Saturday night finds Illinois looking to do what Big 10 rival Nebraska did only a week ago. That being bounce back from an outright loss as a favorite. Two weeks ago, Nebraska suffered a shocking defeat at the hands of Colorado, 34-31 as a four-point favorite. The Cornhuskers came into 2019 with a ton of hype and that loss shattered it a bit as they blew a 17-point lead and lost in overtime. They did bounce back last week by trouncing Northern Illinois 44-8. They'll stay in the Land of Lincoln this week, moving from DeKalb to Champaign and open up conference play. Illinois lost last week to Eastern Michigan, 34-31 (sound familiar?) as a seven-point favorite here at home. The good news here is they don't have to win like Nebraska did last week. The Illini only need to cover and the oddsmakers have obliged with a generous spread that we've seen the public already bet up. This number shows us that the hype train is still moving a bit too fast with Nebraska. Can't say we're huge fans of what Lovie Smith has done here at Illinois, who has not been to a bowl since 2014. Smith has had a young team each of his first three seasons here, but this is easily his most experienced - and best - group yet. They should be highly motivated following last week's loss while Nebraska could be prone for another letdown. By the way, Scott Frost is 0-6 in road games as the 'Huskers coach. Play on ILLINOIS AAA | |||||||
09-21-19 | Phillies v. Indians -165 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -165 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND It seems as if none of the three teams in the AL Wild Card chase are ever going to lose. Oakland has won 9 of 10. Two games behind the A's, fighting for the final spot, are Cleveland and Tampa Bay. The Rays are 10-4 their last 14 games while the Indians (who we'll be playing here) have won 9 of 11. The Tribe's latest win came last night over the Phillies, 5-2, as they jumped on Drew Smyly early. Tonight, they are likely to do the same to Jason Vargas, who has struggled since making the jump from New York to Philly. Vargas' ERA and WHIP his last three starts are 6.35 and 1.50 respectively. No matter which team he was with, the road has always been a problem as his ERA is 5.06 there. Vargas has lasted just three innings his past two starts. Cleveland counters with Plesac, who just turned in a complete game shutout in his last trip to the mound. The team is 8-2 at home this year with him on the mound. While technically still alive for a Wild Card spot in the NL, the Phillies pretty much know their fate is sealed at this point as they are five games back. Truthfully, we never thought they'd get there anyway. An odd but perhaps useful trend here is that the Indians are a perfect 11-0 this season at home when the total is 10 or 10.5. The total opened at 10 and has since moved to 10.5 for this Interleague matchup. Play on CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
09-21-19 | Oregon v. Stanford +10.5 | Top | 21-6 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on STANFORD Already with two losses, Stanford would seem to have its back against the wall here vs. Oregon, a game in which few, if any, will expect the Cardinal to win. The defenses in Palo Alto have usually been very solid under David Shaw, but the last two games have seen them shredded for 90 points as they've given up 45 to both USC and UCF. Now Oregon comes to town. Despite what many perceive as being a mismatch, Stanford has always given the Ducks fits and we expect that to be the case again this year. They are 5-2 the previous seven matchups and 0-3 the last three. While that run involves teams a lot more talented than this one, the same can be said for the Oregon side as well. Winning by double digits on the conference road is difficult. After two straight blowouts over Nevada and Montana, it's easy to see the Ducks coming into this one too overconfident. As for that Cardinals defense, they allowed just seven points in the lone home game, which was a win over Northwestern. After taking on two talented teams the past two weeks, the Cardinal will be more battle tested and prepared to give Oregon another fight to the end. Play on STANFORD AAA | |||||||
09-21-19 | Temple v. Buffalo OVER 50.5 | Top | 22-38 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Temple is going to have to guard against a letdown here as last week they upset a heavily hyped Maryland team, 20-17 as 5.5-point home dogs. That game set up pretty well for the Owls as they were off an open date. Now let's see how they perform having to play in consecutive weeks for the first time this season. While Temple has covered both of its games, Buffalo is 0-3 ATS. Two weeks ago, they actually led Penn State at the half, 10-7. Since then, it's been all downhill as they've been outscored 73-20. That includes a bad 35-17 loss at Liberty last week where the Bulls were favored by 5.5 points. We figured UB would struggle early on this year as they lost their starting QB and two receivers from last year. That they have with just 30 total points the last two games. But both were on the road. They actually gained 429 and 373 yards in those two games. So they've moved the ball. Back at home this week, they should start finding the end zone more. Temple's defense turned in a tremendous performance last week vs. Maryland, but that's the side of the ball where the letdown could take place. The Owls offense has averaged 561 yards/game so far. The Over is 10-4-1 in Buffalo's last 15 home games. Last year was a 36-29 win by Buffalo at Temple. Play OVER Temple-Buffalo AAA | |||||||
09-21-19 | Michigan State -8.5 v. Northwestern | Top | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on MICHIGAN STATE This is a rare situation where everyone is piling on the underdog. That's because, admittedly, Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald has been excellent in the role. His Wildcats teams have gone 13-4-1 ATS the last 18 times they've gotten points and won 10 of the game straight up. Last year alone, they were an amazing 7-1-1 ATS getting points and won six of the games straight up. One of those upsets came against Michigan State, 29-19 (+11). Yet despite all of what you just read, a curious thing has happened here and that's the line has moved up (by several points) even though the majority of bets have come in on the Wildcats. We trust Mark Dantonio, off a loss last week to Arizona State, to get the job done here in this revenge spot. His Spartans actually have triple revenge here as they've been upset by Northwestern each of the last three seasons. Northwestern can't do it again, can they? This Wildcats team is nowhere near as strong as the one that pulled the upset last year in East Lansing. This Michigan State team is also much stronger than the one that lost its last trip into Evanston two years ago. Sparty's defense should rule the day in this one as they've given up just 34 points in three games. Northwestern was off a bye last week when it beat UNLV 30-14. In the first game, they could score only 7 points in a loss at Stanford, which now looks even worse. The road team is 12-4 SU and 14-2 ATS the last 16 meetings. Play on MICHIGAN STATE AAA | |||||||
09-20-19 | Air Force v. Boise State -7.5 | Top | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 54 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* on BOISE STATE Boise State is back in the top 20 of the polls, but doesn't feel like its getting the respect it deserves here vs. Air Force. This is a home game, remember. The Broncos are 59-7 SU their L66 games on the blue turf. Maybe the win over Florida State that opened the season isn't as impressive now, considering how bleak things look down in Tallahassee. But you can bet Boise won't be taking Air Force lightly. While they've beaten the Flyboys each of the last two seasons, before that they'd actually lost three straight times to them. One of those was among the seven home losses that have occurred on this field in the past decade. This is going to be a tough spot for Air Force as they played an overtime game last week in Colorado, which saw them upset the favored Buffaloes. Boise State, meanwhile, had a virtual layup against Portland State. Air Force is obviously going to look to run the ball in this game, but so far the Boise State run defense has been very good. We like what we've seen from true freshman QB Hank Bachmeier as well. He's thrown 13 touchdown passes in three games while averaging 343 yards per game through the air. Rough spot on a short week for the underdog here and they are just 7-18-1 ATS their last 26 Mountain West games. Play on BOISE STATE AAA | |||||||
09-20-19 | White Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -127 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on TIGERS +1.5 The Tigers made a bit of history last night and it's not the kind they should be proud of as they lost to the Indians for an 18th time this year. No team had ever lost 18 times to a single opponent in a given year before this (Tigers beat the Indians just once). There's the potential for a lot more infamous history to be made here as Detroit has been outscored by 306 runs over the course of the season. Taking them, in any situation, is tough to advise. But we will today as you can grab the +1.5 at a relatively decent price going against a White Sox team that is also among the worst in the league. Sure, the White Sox aren't as bad as the Tigers. But their own -141 scoring differential is bottom six in baseball and the idea of them winning a road game by multiple runs is not something you should ever bank on, even when matched up with the Tigers. They're sending a pitcher (Dylan Cease) with a 6.04 ERA and 1.58 WHIP to the mound tonight. Normally, that would be an easy fade on the money line, but we do have to be cautious about who Detroit has pitching too as Jordan Zimmerman is 1-11. But Zimmerman has pitched pretty decent for someone with that kind of record, at least in the second half, as he has a 1.11 WHIP his last seven starts. Play DETROIT on the RUN LINE (+1.5) AAA | |||||||
09-20-19 | Cardinals v. Cubs -119 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -119 | 3 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 10* play on the CUBS The Cubs badly need this game as they've fallen behind the Brewers in the Wild Card race (one game). Were they to miss out on the playoffs, and the Brewers get in, it would upset many in the analytics community considering the Cubs have a +114 run differential on the year (2nd best in the whole National League) while Milwaukee is -21. But the Brewers continue to take advantage of an advantageous schedule while the Cubs have now lost three straight home games, two to the Reds and then yesterday in extra innings to the first place Cardinals. We're not used to seeing the Cubs drop games in Wrigley; their 51 home victories are 4th most in baseball. Because of an injury to Cole Hamels, he's being skipped in the rotation here and Alec Mills will start in his place. Friday will mark just the third start for Mills and first since July. (He's been working out of the bullpen ever since). His first two starts were fine as he gave up five runs in 10 1/3 innings. He had 11 strikeouts and just two walks. But the "real story" here is the poor history that Cardinals starter Michael Wacha has with the Cubs. In 19 career appearances against them, Wacha's ERA is 6.68. He hasn't pitched that well on the road either, no matter whom he's facing, as his record is 4-8 with a 1.52 WHIP. St. Louis had been 0-6 here in Chicago prior to winning yesterday. You have to think the Cubs bounce back here. Play on CHICAGO AAA | |||||||
09-19-19 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 39 | Top | 7-20 | Loss | -110 | 55 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER The Titans were oh so close to 2-0 last week, but couldn't finish the job against the Colts. They had a late 17-13 lead, but after a missed FG things quickly went awry. The Colts scored the go-ahead touchdown after a 55-yard run, but a missed XP by Adam Vinateri definitely left the door open for Tennessee, who was down only 19-17. But the Titans offense could muster nothing on its final two drives. Still, they're in better position than the 0-2 Jaguars, who went for 2 and the win against Houston (could have kicked XP and gone to OT instead). They obviously failed and it was a 13-12 loss. While it was a low-scoring game for both teams last week, let's go back to Week 1. Tennessee scored 43 while Jacksonville gave up 40. This will likely end up closing as the lowest total on the Week 3 board despite what happened in Week 1. There's definitely value on the Over in our estimation. The Over is 6-2 in the Titans last eight Thursday games and 4-0 when they are off an ATS loss. Jacksonville is 6-2 Over if they allowed 15 or less points in the last game. Play OVER Tennessee-Jacksonville AAA | |||||||
09-19-19 | Houston v. Tulane OVER 55.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Houston and Tulane have combined to play six games this year. The Under is 6-0. Houston is 1-2 straight up, thanks to a tough schedule to open the season, which has seen them already face Oklahoma and Washington State. The Cougars only win was against a FCS team and a bad one at that (Prairie View A&M). Tulane lost to Auburn in Week 2, but won its other two games, one of which was against a FCS foe. They also opened the season by beating FIU 42-17. Given that kind of scoring output, we think it's pretty reasonable for the Green Wave to score a lot this week. They also hung 58 on Missouri State last week. Houston not surprisingly is no offensive slouch either as they're averaging over 30 points/game. But a defense that has given up 80 points to its two FBS opponents is a cause for concern. This is a really low total for a game involving Houston. The first three all saw totals in the 70's. That the number has been bet down is a break for us. Play OVER Houston-Tulane AAA | |||||||
09-19-19 | Giants v. Red Sox -160 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on BOSTON This series has drawn attention due to the fact the Giants have Mike Yazstremski on their roster, the grandson of legendary Boston Hall of Famer Carl Yazstremski. There must be something about the last name and Fenway Park because the Giants have surprisingly won the first two games of this series. It was a one-run win, 7-6 in 15 innings, on Tuesday. That has been the Giants "M.O." in 2019 as their a MLB-best 37-15 in one-run games. It was a far more decisive win last night, 11-3, as they scored seven runs in the final two innings. The Giants success in one-run games this year has masked that this really isn't a very good team as they've still been outscored by 69 runs. For Boston, the playoffs are basically no longer possible, but winning a home game should be a motivating factor. They've lost five in a row at Fenway Park, which you don't see very often. They've got to face Madison Bumgarner this afternoon, a challenge for sure, but he's failed to beat Boston in two previous tries. The Giants have also lost Bumgarner's last two starts, both at home, to last place teams (Miami, Pittsburgh). Before those, he gave up six runs in a loss at St. Louis. Eduardo Rodriguez pitched masterfully in his last start for Boston, striking out 12 and giving up just one run and four hits in a 2-1 Red Sox win in Philadelphia. That improved his team start record to 23-8 this season. Rodriguez also can claim to have allowed 0 or 1 runs five of his last six starts. Red Sox avoid the sweep here. Play on BOSTON AAA | |||||||
09-18-19 | Padres v. Brewers -135 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE The Brewers continue to handle their business as they've beaten the Padres two straight, pulling them into a tie for the Wild Card with the Cubs. Milwaukee was actually swept out in San Diego earlier in the year, but facing the Padres now has proven advantageous as not only do they have the homefield advantage, they're the only motivated side in this matchup. San Diego has lost six in a row now with three of those losses seeing them score just one run and the other three seeing them give up at least 10. That's a bad combo. Two of the games where they scored only one run have come here in this series and there's really no reason to expect they'll perform any better at the plate tonight. Milwaukee is 11-1 in its last 12 games as they've gotten hot at the perfect time. The starter for tonight, Adrian Houser, was the one who started the only loss in the L12 games. However, he should rebound nicely here vs. a team that's hitting only .205 in the last week. Houser has a 3.12 ERA his previous seven starts. As for Padres starter Dinelson Lamet, you're looking at an 0-4 team start record his last four outings. The Padres have also lost eight straight road games. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
09-18-19 | Mets -153 v. Rockies | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 3 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the METS We used the Mets yesterday and that worked out well as they were able to stay relevant in the Wild Card by beating Colorado 6-1. The Rockies had previous won six of seven, but it's still been a bad year, one that likely ends with them in last place in the NL West. Facing a team that has nothing left to play for, the Mets have to take advantage here as their playoff hopes remain slim. It's a four game deficit that they're still facing with only 11 left to play. You have to like that they have Noah Syndergaard pitching today. He's had Colorado's number in the past, going 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA in four starts, though none of them have come here at Coors Field. A big key here is that Wilson Ramos will NOT catch for Syndergaard. In the 16 starts with Ramos as catcher, Syndergaard's ERA is 5.20. In the other 11, with either Nido or Rivera behind the plate, that number drops to 2.22. Just as encouraging as having Syndergaard pitching for the Mets is who will be starting opposite him for the Rockies. Jeff Hoffman just hasn't been very good. He has a 7.03 ERA and 1.69 WHIP in 12 starts, one of which was against the Mets and he gave up six runs. Coincidentally, Syndergaard pitched that game for the Mets, a 6-1 win. The Mets offense should continue to take advantage of the opportunities provided by Coors Field and Syndegaard should handle the Rockies in short order. Play on NY METS AAA | |||||||
09-18-19 | Nationals -158 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -158 | 5 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Cardinals now have two teams hot on their heels as the Brewers and Cubs are both just two games back in the NL Central race. After scoring just two runs in each of the first two games here vs. Washington, you can imagine that Max Scherzer is the last sight they wanted to see when they look out at the mound today. Scherzer is from St. Louis and has pitched very well here at Busch Stadium in the past. Four starts here have resulted in a 1.44 ERA and a 35-4 strikeout to walk ratio. He's allowed just four runs in 25 innings. While he missed about a month on the DL, Scherzer has an 11-2 team start record since the start of June. He's also gone 7-1 in 11 road starts this year with a 2.26 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Those are all obviously outstanding numbers and what you want to see when taking the Nationals this afternoon. That's the call here as despite Adam Wainwright's own recent pitching prowess, we don't see St. Louis being able to hang with the favored Nats in this spot. Only a handful of teams have a better scoring margin on the road than Washington, all of them first place teams. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
09-17-19 | Mets -153 v. Rockies | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the METS From July 25th until August 10th, the Mets played 16 games. They won 15 of them. That run had them thinking Wild Card, but that is now getting more and more unlikely. Since that 15-1 run, the team has basically played .500 ball and is actually now one game under after last night's loss to Colorado. Of course, during that 15-1 run, the Mets were playing nothing but bad teams. Colorado is a bad team as they are in last place in the NL West with a 66-85 record, despite a four-game win streak. One big inning saved the Rockies last night as they scored six runs in the bottom half of the fourth. Don't look for that to happen again though. Not against Marcus Stroman, who they'll face tonight at Coors Field. Stroman has made eight starts for the Mets. The team has gone 5-3 in them and he was completely dominant last Thursday in an 11-1 win over the Diamondbacks. In that start, Stroman allowed just one run and four hits. He has previously pitched here at Coors this season, back on June 1st when he was still with the Blue Jays. He pitched well, giving up just three earned runs. We shouldn't have to tell you that the Rockies are giving up a major league worst 6.9 runs/game at home. Tonight's starter Tim Melville has negatively impacted that number in limited time, giving up nine runs in his last five innings pitched here. He has an ugly 9.28 ERA and 2.06 WHIP his last three starts overall. The Mets bounce back with a win on Tuesday. Play on NY METS AAA | |||||||
09-17-19 | Aces +8 v. Mystics | Top | 95-97 | Win | 102 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LAS VEGAS In case you haven't been paying any attention, the WNBA playoffs have reached the semifinal round. Most experts agree that a Connecticut vs. Washington final is inevitable, but that also makes the underdogs in the two respective series somewhat valuable as they're going to be getting a lot of points. Case in point here with Las Vegas in Game 1 of the best of five series with top seeded Washington. The Aces got here thanks to a miraculous last second shot from Dearica Hamby, which gave them a 93-92 win over Chicago on Sunday. But they also have a 22-12 record. There aren't a ton of good teams in this league, but Las Vegas is one of them. So the Mystics laying so many points, after a long layoff, is trickier than it sounds. Might the team who finished the regular season with the best overall record come out a bit rusty? It's certainly possible. . Note that the Mystics are 0-4-1 ATS the last five times they've played on three or more days rest. Las Vegas did beat Washington earlier this year. It was with Elena Delle Donne out of the Mystics lineup, but that game was also here in Washington. The Aces are 7-3 ATS the last 10 meetings. Play on LAS VEGAS AAA | |||||||
09-17-19 | Phillies v. Braves -178 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -178 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on Atlanta Atlanta has already assured itself a spot in the playoffs. Now all that's left to do is to nail down the NL East for a second year in a row and possibly catch the Dodgers for homefield advantage. They certainly would appear to have a favorable matchup with the Phillies on Tuesday as they look to achieve those goals. Philadelphia is technically still alive for the Wild Card, but things are now looking rather bleak after a losing homestand left them 4.5 games back and needing to jump two teams. Making matters worse is that Vince Velasquez has to face the Braves tonight. Velasquez has never beaten Atlanta in 10 career starts. He's 0-6 with a 5.36 ERA against them. His one start vs. the Braves in 2019 yielded four runs as he lasted only 2 2/3 innings. On the other hand, Dallas Keuchel has not only been lights out lately for the Braves, he's had tremendous success when facing Philly. Five career starts against the Phillies have produced a 1.42 ERA for Keuchel. His overall results of late have been even more impressive. His last six starts have all been wins for the Braves (with Keuchel going 5-0 with one no decision) and he has a 0.97 ERA during that time. He's allowed just four runs in 37 innings and has 35 strikeouts. Tonight's pitching matchup totally favors the Braves and all other signs point to them winning as well. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
09-16-19 | Browns -6 v. Jets | Top | 23-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CLEVELAND After a disastrous Week 1 performance, Cleveland has caught a major break here with Jets quarterback Sam Darnold being out due to mono. In his place, the Jets turn to Trevor Siemian, who was last seen guiding an anemic offense in Denver last season. It's not that Darnold is any kind of All-Pro, it's just that we think Siemian is that bad. But perhaps more concerning are the injuries on the defensive side of the ball for the Jets as LB CJ Mosley and DL Quennin Williams are both going to miss tonight's game. While it's true the Jets blew a 16-0 lead to the Bills last week, they were actually quite fortunate to even be in that position as Bills quarterback Josh Allen accounted for four first half turnovers. The Browns got a ton of offseason hype and know that another loss could mean the wheels will start coming off for rookie coach Freddie Kitchens. While the Jets may not have been as "unlucky" as you think they were last week, the Browns weren't as outclassed by the Titans as you might think in a 43-13 loss. It was still a two-point game very late in the third quarter. If they are able to cut down on their own mistakes (namely penalties!), we've seen how little a Darnold-led Jets offense can do. Now just imagine how poor they'll be with Siemian taking snaps. The Browns beat the Jets last year, thanks to Baker Mayfield coming in and leading a comeback. With him now fully embedded as the starter, look for a fast start by the Browns Monday night. Play CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
09-16-19 | Orioles -132 v. Tigers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -132 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BALTIMORE The Orioles being both favored and endorsed by us is a rare situation, but it happens here as they face the one team that has a worse record. That Baltimore is favored like this ON THE ROAD speaks volumes on the current state of baseball in Detroit. The Tigers are 44-104 (Orioles are 49-100) and have been outscored by almost 300 runs this season, which would be a new record for futility. Detroit is 4-19 as a home dog of +125 to +175 among other things. They're being outscored by 2.7 runs/game at home! This line also speaks to the pitching matchup as John Means will go for the Orioles. The one reliable starter in the rotation, Means has given up 2 ER or less in five straight starts. He has a 2.70 ERA and 0.70 WHIP in the last three. For what it's worth, Baltimore did win the only time this year that they were road favorites of -125 to -175 ... that was yesterday's 8-2 win here in Detroit! Look for them to make it three of four over the Tigers as their hitters should have a field day going against struggling Tigers starter Alexander, who has been hit hard his last three starts, all of which are losses. He has allowed 13 runs in 14 1/3 innings and also given up 27 hits. If there ever was a spot to like Baltimore, it would be this game. Play on BALTIMORE AAA | |||||||
09-15-19 | Dodgers -135 v. Mets | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 9* play on the LA DODGERS The Dodgers have already clinched the division, now it's just a matter of earning home field advantage for the duration of the playoffs. They're already well on their way on the National League side, holding a three game advantage over the Braves. But they're behind both the Yankees and Astros of the American League for the best overall record in baseball. A 3-0 loss to the Mets yesterday didn't help matters, but we can't see them losing two in a row. The Mets are of course just trying to get into the playoffs as they are three back of the Wild Card currently. A big key in earning the win last night was having Jacob deGrom starting. Tonight, the Mets are left with Zach Wheeler, who isn't a bad pitcher by any means. But it's highly unlikely he'll be able to match Walker Buehler, who is in the top 10 among NL starters in wins (6th), strikeouts (10th) and ERA (8th). He's 1st with a 1.02 WHIP. In three of his last four starts, Buehler has not allowed a single run (4 of his L6 as well). Over his last seven starts, you're looking at a 2.45 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. Wheeler just can't match those numbers even though he's allowed only 1 ER in three straight starts with the team winning all three times. The Dodgers are 34-19 off a loss this year, including 4-1 if they were shutout. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
09-15-19 | Jaguars +9.5 v. Texans | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* on JACKSONVILLE With a game that has such a low total, this sure is a lot of points for the Texans to be laying. Sure, disaster struck Jacksonville with quarterback Nick Foles going down with a collarbone injury in Week 1. Foles, the team's key free agent signing in the offseason, was supposed to help transform an offense that wasn't very good in 2018. Now it's rookie Gardner Minshew (Wash St) calling the shots. Still, it's a lot points. Houston is on working on a short week as they played Monday night in New Orleans. They lost that game in heartbreaking fashion after Saints QB Drew Brees drove his team down for the winning field goal. That came right after DeShaun Watson drove the Texans down the field for a temporary lead. Given the situation, this is too many points to lay with Houston. What if Minshew turns out not to be a liability? Against Kansas City, he actually completed 22 of his 25 pass attempts for 275 yards. That was in an emergency situation. The road team is on an 11-4-1 ATS run in this AFC rivalry, so we'll take the points. Play on JACKSONVILLE AAA | |||||||
09-15-19 | Chargers v. Lions UNDER 47.5 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 44 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on the UNDER Last week's game involving the Chargers should have been an Under as they led 24-16 with less than a minute to go. But the defense not only let the Colts drive down for a touchdown, but also gave up a two-point conversion that sent the game into overtime. Fortunately for Chargers fans, Philip Rivers got the ball first in OT and never let the Colts have a chance as LA scored a TD on its first possession. But the Chargers weren't the only team last week to have overtime ruin what looked to be a sure under. Detroit led Arizona 24-6 early in the fourth quarter before Cardinals rookie Kyler Murray awoke and led his team on a wild comeback. The game wound up going to OT, but unlike Chargers-Colts, there was no winner as it ended up a 27-27 tie. This week, the Chargers offense won't have TE Hunter Henry nor will they have him the rest of the season (fractured knee). That'll affect them drastically. They are already without RB Melvin Gordon, who is holding out. Austin Eckler had the game of his life starting in place of Gordon last week, but won't be repeating that performance here. Detroit's offense will probably look to run a lot here after the Chargers defense got gashed on the ground by the Colts. But we're not sure the Lions will have the same success. The Under hit in the last five Lions home games last year. Play UNDER Chargers-Detroit AAA | |||||||
09-15-19 | Cardinals v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | Top | 17-23 | Win | 100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER We've seen this total skyrocket due to Baltimore putting up 59 points in Week 1. But such efficiency is highly unlikely two weeks in a row and even if the Ravens are successful again this week (and it's very likely they will be), they won't be scoring as much. With top overall draft pick Kyler Murray making his first career start, the Arizona offense looked pretty bad for three quarters last week. They scored only six points before a furious late rally forced overtime and ultimately earned them a tie with the Lions. Again, it's likely the Cardinals find themselves down entering the 4th quarter here. But the Ravens defense won't be nearly as generous as the Lions were. They gave up just 200 total yards to Miami. In the last 10 years, the Ravens have only lost to a rookie QB one time. Baltimore won't be scoring 40+ every week, or even most weeks this season. Not all, but a good deal of their offensive performance last week had to do with whom they were facing. Arizona had the worst record in the league last year, but they're better than Miami. This will be a relatively low-scoring affair and best of all is that the number has been bet up several points, presenting us with a value situation. Play UNDER Arizona-Baltimore AAA | |||||||
09-15-19 | Patriots v. Dolphins +19.5 | Top | 43-0 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MIAMI It's only Week 2, but Miami already finds itself in a position where they are taking 18.5 points at home. If that seems preposterous, then you obviously missed last week's performance where they were clobbered 59-10 by Baltimore - at home. Getting matched up here with the Patriots, who looked as good as ever in wiping the mat with Pittsburgh last week (33-3 win), and it's no wonder Miami is one of the biggest single game underdogs we've seen in recent years. But they still are a professional team and this is way too many points NOT to take in the NFL. It was a few years ago that Jacksonville was getting even more points on the road against Peyton Manning and Denver. They easily covered the spread. Then there's this tidbit. New England has actually LOST five of the last six games in Miami (straight up) including each of the last two years. This is the biggest home dog we've seen since 2007 ... when New England failed to cover at Baltimore. The only larger September spread - of any kind - in NFL history was 1968 and the Jets (-20) actually the lost the game on the field to the Bills. You have to take the points in this situation. It's very hard to win on the road in this league, let alone by 20 points. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
09-14-19 | Oklahoma v. UCLA +24 | Top | 48-14 | Loss | -115 | 77 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCLA The vultures are circling Chip Kelly right now as UCLA is 0-2 and the school is reportedly having to give tickets away for this home game, even though it's nationally televised and against Oklahoma. Now the matchup all but guarantees the Bruins will be 0-3. But while their fans may have given up on them, we will not. This is a lot of points, at home, for a team that many thought would be 2-0. Oklahoma might be a top five team, but they have a suspect defense that has really yet to be tested. In this situation, Kelly has nothing to lose and everything to gain. Expect him to go deep into his bag of tricks. The Sooners might have won the last seven games where they were road favorites. But they are also just 1-5-1 against the spread in those seven games. Before last week's loss to San Diego State, UCLA could usually be counted on for a solid performance in the Rose Bowl. This is an experienced team that Kelly brought back with more of his recruits. It's been incredible to see UCLA getting so many points when they were "only" getting 29 last year in Norman. They covered in that loss by a single point. Here they are at home, desperate, and should play better than we've seen the last two weeks, even though they are facing a superior side. Last year, the Bruins were getting 3 touchdowns at home against Top 10 Washington and only lost by seven points. Maybe its not that close here, but UCLA will stay within the number. Play on UCLA AAA | |||||||
09-14-19 | San Diego State v. New Mexico State +16 | Top | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NEW MEXICO STATE A week after a completely unimpressive 6-0 win over Weber State, San Diego State went to the Rose Bowl and upset UCLA 23-14 as 7.5-point underdogs. Explain that. It's tough to, though UCLA repeatedly shot itself in the foot. This week, the Aztecs will be the favorite, on the road. That's tricky for a team that scores so few points. It's a big number too. In its last 15 games, San Diego State has scored more than 24 points just four times and never more than 31. A big home game vs. Utah State next week promises to divert the Aztecs attention from this week's opponent. New Mexico State may not bring in a stellar resume, but after playing Washington State and Alabama to start its season, they definitely won't be intimidated. This is the home opener as well. The Aggies are a respectable 5-5 SU in Las Cruces the last two years. Even after last week's win, San Diego State is still just 4-8 its last 12 non-conference road games and that's straight up! Being -6 in turnovers vs. Alabama and Washington State did New Mexico State no favors. Let's assume they clean that up a bit and it's easy to see them being more competitive this week. Play on NEW MEXICO STATE AAA | |||||||
09-14-19 | Jordan Griffin -160 v. Chas Skelly | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -160 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on JORDAN GRIFFIN We're going with a preliminary fight here and it's an intriguing one at featherweight. Jordan Griffin and Chas Skelly were originally slated to fight at UFC on ESPN 3, but that fell apart. But three months later, here were are. Skelly seems to be trending in a bad direction with losses in three of his last five fights, including the last two. He hasn't been that active either as those last two fights were in May of 2017 and November of last year. This from a fighter who once won two fights in a two-week span back in 2014! Skelly was knocked out and choked out in those last two fights as well. Griffin is also fighting for the 1st time this year after losing his last fight, back in December. But that was just his third loss in the last 19 fights. You can look for him to keep this fight standing where he has a substantial edge. Griffin is also strong enough defensively that we can't see Skelly getting him into any compromising positions. Skelly's inactivity was due to injuries and it's hard to imagine he ever gets things back on track. We've seen Griffin's odds skyrocket over the last 24 hours and for good reason. Play on JORDAN GRIFFIN AAA | |||||||
09-14-19 | North Texas v. California OVER 50.5 | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -108 | 73 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on the OVER For the second year in a row, Cal beat Washington and both times they did it with defense. Last year, it was a 12-10 win without an offensive TD. Last week, it was 20-19 on a last-second FG, a game that was delayed nearly 2 1/2 hours because of weather. This defense, led by one of the better secondaries in the country, is quite clearly pretty good. But this week we feel it will be the offense's turn to show what it can do as it faces a North Texas defense that isn't the least bit good. The Mean Green gave up 52 in the bowl to end last year and lost some key players from that defense. That poor bowl performance looks to have carried over into 2019. The first game, they gave up 31 points and 456 yards to Abilene Christian. It got worse last week in a visit to SMU where they got torched for 49 points and 503 yards. Luckily, UNT does have an offense with a senior QB Mason Fine that can put points on the board. While it's the worst defense Cal has faced yet, it's also the best offense. Fine has guided the offense to 78 points in two games. He's thrown for nearly 8000 yards the last two seasons and is the school's all-time passing leader. This O/U has been bet down several points. While its understandable because of Cal's defensive effort last week, it's too low. Take the OVER AAA | |||||||
09-14-19 | Braves v. Nationals -118 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -118 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON One could argue that the Nationals are having every bit the good season that the Braves are. After all, they have a slightly better run differential than Atlanta. Washington has gone 62-34 overall since May 24th. However, they have had one heck of a problem beating their division rival and that problem continued last night with a 5-0 shutout loss. That was the sixth time in the last seven meetings they lost to the Braves. It was also the eighth time the Nats have been shutout this year. Now 9.5 games back, there's virtually zero shot Washington can catch Atlanta in the division, but they still lead the Wild Card and preserving that advantage is priority number one right now. Despite the stakes being so high for both teams, they are starting pitchers that are question marks this afternoon. Mike Foltynewicz has pitched well since a stint in the minors, but it was Washington that sent him there when they scored eight runs on him, in only four innings, back in late June. Austin Voth is the starter for the Nationals. This is only his 2nd time starting since July. The first was against these Braves last Saturday. He gave up two solo home runs in four innings. We expect him to pitch better at home this time. The Nationals are also 7-3 off their last 10 losses. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
09-14-19 | East Carolina v. Navy -7 | Top | 10-42 | Win | 100 | 72 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on NAVY Navy had an uncharacteristic season last year. They went 3-10, its worst record since 2002. You have to think the Midshipmen are shoo-ins to improve in 2019 and they've already gotten the season off to a positive start with a 45-7 win over Holy Cross. In that game, they ran for 428 yards. But perhaps more promising with them throwing for 103 yards. That's nothing for most teams. But Navy, who has run the triple option for years, was last in the country at 72.8 passs yards/game last year. They've promised to add elements of a run-and-shoot offense this year. Ken Niumatalolo totally retooled his coaching staff this year. Having a bye last week is another nice early season edge. East Carolina is a program in transition with a first year coach in Mike Houston. The Pirates also won three games last year, just like Navy, but there's no real history here of winning, at least recently. They've won just three games each of the last three years. They've gone 1-16 SU on the road, so this line being so short is a definite surprise. ECU has covered just 6 of the last 22 times it has been an underdog. They were beaten 34-6 at NC State in the opener. A 48-9 win last week over Gardner-Webb means little in the grand scheme. They've lost by an average of 24.5 points/game the last two times they played Navy. Play on NAVY AAA | |||||||
09-14-19 | Ohio State v. Indiana +17 | Top | 51-10 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on INDIANA So much for Urban Meyer. Ryan Day has Ohio State rolling at 2-0 with wins over Florida Atlantic (45-21) and Cincinnati (42-0). The Buckeyes defense obviously played better than the second game and QB Justin Fields, a transfer from Georgia, has looked great. But consider the talent gap between the Buckeyes and those first two opponents. Now OSU opens Big 10 play. Sure, it's against Indiana, but it's also on the road. The Hoosiers were actually more competitive in last year's game at Ohio Stadium than the final score shows. They did cover as 26-point dogs (final score was 49-26), but it was only an eight-point game at half and IU led in the second quarter. The Hoosiers are also off a shutout, 52-0 over Eastern Illinois, and beat Ball State 34-24 in the opener. So their offense is humming too. Last week was Indiana's biggest margin of victory in 25 years. After missing out on a bowl the last two years, you know this team is going to be motivated. They've come close to pulling a major upset in Big 10 play the last few years, but never finished the job. They have lost 10 times by seven points or less the four years in Big 10 play. Every year, at least one of those losses was to a Top 20 team. We're taking the points, especially with new starting quarterback Michael Penix, a freshman, looking so good. Play on INDIANA AAA | |||||||
09-13-19 | White Sox v. Mariners -129 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -129 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SEATTLE It's not all too often you'll find the Mariners favored on the moneyline, but when the White Sox come to town, the oddsmakers will have to oblige. Though we're hesitant to take any favorite that's dropped seven of nine, let alone one that's in last place, this is the time to make an exception. Chicago is a team that's much worse than most realize. They've scored the third fewest runs in all of MLB this year and as a result have been outscored by 140 runs. Why is that significant? Well, a team with a -140 run differential at this point of the season is "expected" to have only 58 wins. The White Sox are 64-82. Not a good record, but it should be worse. That six-game gap between how many they've actually won and what run differential says they should have won is actually tied the second largest in baseball. Seattle has been every bit as bad this year, but gets a break tonight in facing Dylan Covey. It's not just that the White Sox have lost Covey's last five starts or that he has a 8.14 ERA and 1.68 WHIP for the year (1-7 in 11 starts overall). In his last three starts, Covey has been clobbered to the tune of a 17.65 ERA and 2.31 WHIP! He's given up 17 runs in just over eight innings, including 12 his last 2 2/3. By comparison, Kikuchi is "Cy Young" for Seattle as he allowed just one run his last start. Chicago lost as a favorite each of the last two days, to the Royals no less, so we have every reason to doubt them here as underdogs. Play on SEATTLE AAA | |||||||
09-13-19 | Kansas +21.5 v. Boston College | Top | 48-24 | Win | 100 | 52 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on KANSAS Les Miles knew it would be a tall mountain to climb when he took on the job at Kansas. After all, this is a program that had suffered through a miserable 6-42 record the previous four years under David Beatty. Through two games, Miles is 1-1 in Lawrence. The Jayhawks first game saw them rally (after blowing a double-digit lead) to beat an FCS opponent, Indiana State. Last week, they were competitive, but ultimately lost 12-7 to Coastal Carolina. Interestingly, KU scored on its opening drive, but never again. While there's obviously still a ton of room for growth here, no longer look for the Jayhawks to be the pushover they once were. Miles will have them playing hard. That's what makes this week's line at BC so interesting. The Eagles have scored more than anticipated the first two games. They hung 35 on Va Tech in a bit of an upset, then 45 more on Richmond last week. But the defense hasn't been as sound as it usually is. They allowed 442 yards vs. Va Tech, but got the benefit of five Hokies turnovers. Last week, even Richmond was able to attain 364 total yards. Yes, BC will be able to run the ball with the best of 'em. But so can Kansas with Pooka Williams Jr (99 yards last week) now back from suspension. With that BC defense, it's worth mentioning they have only three returning starters from last year. The Eagles have not been favored by more than three touchdown over a FBS team in the last five years. Play on KANSAS AAA | |||||||
09-12-19 | Red Sox -142 v. Blue Jays | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON If there was any doubt that the Red Sox playoff hopes were dead and buried, that was put to rest this week in Toronto where the reigning World Champs have lost two in a row, both as favorites. The losing streak has now hit five in a row and they are 10 games back of the Wild Card. In other words, "there's always next year!" But there's "always tomorrow" too and we do see Boston avoiding the sweep tonight. Making what has happened to the Red Sox in this series all the more embarrassing is that the Blue Jays had lost six in a row coming in. It was an 8-0 shutout Wednesday, but the good news there is that Toronto is just 1-5 after a shutout win this year. The Jays are hitting just .228 at home this year. Despite the fact they are going to miss the playoffs, Boston still has a +76 run differential, which is quite good. A "X-factor" in tonight's game is Red Sox starter Jhoulys Chacin, who Toronto has never faced as he'd always pitched in the National League before coming to Boston. Chacin has thrown three scoreless innings so far for the Sox, in two appearances, both against the Yankees. One was a start and he was perfect in two innings. Clay Buchholz starts for Toronto against his former team and his time has passed. He has just one win and a 5.31 ERA in eight starts. Play on BOSTON AAA | |||||||
09-12-19 | Brewers v. Marlins +1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MIAMI +1.5 The Marlins have not won a game in this series, which wraps up early Thursday afternoon. We played Milwaukee in one of the previous three games (Tuesday), but that was before they lost Christian Yelich to a season-ending injury. Last night, they were able to win the first game without Yelich, but it wasn't easy as they needed a tie-breaking 2-run home run from Mike Moustakas in the top of the ninth. It was the Brewers sixth victory in a row. But coming back and winning a day game is going to be tough, even though their opponent is having a poor season. The good news here for Miami is that starter Caleb Smith pitches a lot better at home. He has a 3.19 ERA in 12 starts at Marlins Park and the team's record is 7-5! His last start was a great one as he tossed six shutout innings of four-hit ball. Despite what's gone down in this series so far, Milwaukee has not been a particularly good road team this year. They have a losing record away from Miller Park and have swept only two road series all year. One was back in April vs. Cincinnati, the other last month in Pittsburgh. But both series were only three games. Gio Gonzalez has a 5.54 ERA and 1.62 WHIP for Milwaukee his last three starts. Play MIAMI on the RUN LINE +1.5 AAA | |||||||
09-11-19 | Reds -139 v. Mariners | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -139 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI The Reds didn't come through for us last night, but it's not as if it was a bad call. They led 3-2 going into the bottom of the eighth, but unfortunately that's when a Kyle Seager home run drastically altered the game. Seattle won 4-3, despite only four hits for the game. Betting against the Mariners here seems logical. It's been almost a month since they won two straight games. They'd lost six straight going into yesterday, including a humiliating 21-1 result on Sunday at the hands of Houston. Cincinnati isn't Houston, but they are a team that ranks in the top eight in all of baseball in runs allowed. Trevor Bauer took a no-hit bid into the fifth inning last night, which makes the final result all the more disappointing. Tonight it'll be Sonny Gray on the mound. Gray has won five straight decisions and though he didn't win either of his last two, he allowed just 1 ER in 12+ innings. Gray also is 5-2 lifetime vs. Seattle with a 2.71 ERA in 11 starts. Can't say we think much of Mariners starter Marco Gonzales, who has allowed a total of 11 runs his last two starts. The team has lost five of his last seven starts. Play on CINCINNATI AAA | |||||||
09-11-19 | Nationals -142 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on WASHINGTON Washington had been red hot before running into Atlanta last weekend. They lost three of four games in that series, all but cooking their chances of catching the Braves in the NL East. Still, they're in the driver's seat for the Wild Card, but losing 5-0 to the Twins Tuesday night certainly didn't help the cause. We look for the Nationals to bounce back from that defeat as they send Stephen Strasburg to the mound tonight. Strasburg has been quite good of late, no surprise there. He has allowed a total of just five runs in his last four starts, which have spanned 27 innings. He didn't allow any runs in two of the four. Note that Minnesota was scoreless until the 7th inning last night and didn't even get a hit until the 5th. So this matchup sets up well for Strasburg. He's being opposed here by Martin Perez and unlike Jose Berrios last night, we don't feel Perez is up to the challenge. He did pitch shockingly well vs. Boston last week. But in his start before that one, he was tagged for eight runs by Detroit. Minnesota is only hitting .199 over the past week and that's a problem when facing Strasburg. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
09-10-19 | Cubs -153 v. Padres | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -153 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CUBS We played the Cubs Monday night as they rolled to 10-2 win here in San Diego. We'll go with them again Tuesday. Yes, the Cubs have had all sorts of problems winning on the road this year (road record is 30-43) and that's why they are no sure thing right now to make the playoffs. But winning in San Diego ought not to be terribly difficult. Obviously, the Cubs made it look easy last night. With some key injuries to their everyday lineup, Nico Hoerner stepped up and delivered three hits and four RBI's, the second Cubs player since 1920 to do so in his MLB debut. Tonight, the team can likely lean on starter Jose Quintana. Though he allowed two home runs in his last start, Quintana still got the win and is 5-1 with a 2.66 ERA/1.06 WHIP his last seven outings. He's also 9-1 over his last 12 starts. The Padres go with Bolanos, who just made his MLB debut last week. It was a tough loss as Bolanos only gave up two runs. But his offense scored only one run. That's par for the course as the Padres have scored only 11 runs in the last six games, never eclipsing three in any one game. The Cubs badly need to rack up some victories and this should be an easy one. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA | |||||||
09-10-19 | Reds -124 v. Mariners | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on CINCINNATI A seven-game homestand didn't go the way the Reds had hoped as they finished with a 3-4 record. But Seattle's just completed road trip was far worse. It ended with six straight losses, including a humiliating 21-1 defeat on Sunday (to the Astros), the punctuation mark on what has been a terrible season. So even though they're now the road team and the Mariners are at home, the Reds should win easily here. Trevor Bauer hasn't pitched as well as they'd hoped, but is still a better option than what Seattle will be sending out to the mound. Justus Sheffield has a 5.40 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in three starts, even though he just threw five scoreless innings in his last one. That should tell you how bad the first two were. The Mariners are just 45-84 their last 129 games. Bauer has a long history of facing them. Not only did Seattle lose 21-1 on Sunday, they finished with only one hit! It was as bad a loss as any team has taken this MLB season. Seattle is just 4-10 vs. the National League and while Cincinnati doesn't have the best road record, they are 5-2 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Play on CINCINNATI AAA | |||||||
09-10-19 | Brewers -171 v. Marlins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee didn't have a hard time beating Miami last night. They jumped out to an early 2-0 lead and when all was said and done, it was an 8-3 victory, which keeps them two back of the Wild Card. Tuesday should be a similarly easy win for the Brewers. Miami, who often struggles to score runs (last in NL), wasted a golden opportunity last night. They had the bases loaded four times and still managed to score only three runs. It's unlikely they have as many total bases in tonight's game. This is a big revenge spot for Brewers starter Chase Anderson as the last time he faced the Marlins, his team lost 16-0, at home! But Anderson has a 2.55 ERA in four previous starts here in Miami. The Brewers have now won four in a row and are the only team in this matchup with something to play for. The Marlins go with Hernandez on Tuesday. He's allowed 9 runs in 9 innings his last two starts. Both were on the road. While a better pitcher at home, the team is just 11-25 as a home dog of +125 to +175. The Marlins have the worst record and run differential in the National League. In a tight playoff race, the Brewers should be thankful to be playing them right now and will take full advantage of the opportunity. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
09-09-19 | Broncos v. Raiders UNDER 43 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER Compared to the early game, Denver-Oakland figures to feature little in the way of scoring. You've got two bad offensive teams, one starting Joe Flacco at quarterback and the other trying to pick up the pieces in the wake of the Antonio Brown debacle. The Raiders are a complete joke right now as acquiring Brown cost them draft picks and he didn't he play a game for them. It's a complete distraction heading into the season, which by the way will be their final one in Oakland. This Raiders team has averaged only 18 points/game each of the past two seasons. QB Derek Carr has regressed heavily during that time. Not only do the Raiders not have Brown at their disposal, also gone is TE Jared Cook, who had a career year in 2018. The Denver offense isn't going to be much better this year with the aging Flacco serving merely as a stop gap before someone else takes the reigns (Drew Lock?). Defense is the speciality of new Broncos coach Vic Fangio, so expect them to be stronger on that side of the ball. Their defensive front should overwhelm what is looking like a terrible Oakland offensive line here. The Under went 13-3 in all Denver games a season ago. The Under is also 16-5 the Raiders last 21 games on grass. Play UNDER Denver-Oakland AAA | |||||||
09-09-19 | Cubs -133 v. Padres | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the CUBS If the Cubs ultimately end up missing the playoffs, the blame will be squarely placed on their poor road record, which is now 29-42 after they dropped three of four over the weekend in Milwaukee. They lost the last three days, so there's a real sense of urgency heading into this series opener with San Diego. The Padres are not a good team and frankly, the Cubs should beat them with ease. Yes, the Padres did win both Saturday and Sunday against the Rockies. But in the last five games they've scored a grand total of nine runs. The two starting pitchers for Monday are very much trending in different directions with the Cubs Kyle Hendricks sporting a 3-0 team start record his last three starts with a 3.57 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. Since the All Star Break, he's given up two runs or less in 8 of 10 starts. Hendricks also has a 5-2 career record vs. San Diego with a 2.98 ERA. The Padres Cal Quantrill has an 0-3 TSR his last three starts with an 11.15 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. Despite the injuries, if the Cubs can't win this one, then there's some real trouble in Wrigleyville as several teams are hot on their heels for that final Wild Card spot. San Diego is 14-33 as a home underdog of +125 to +175 the last three seasons. Play on CHICAGO CUBS AAA | |||||||
09-09-19 | Indians v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Indians were able to win the weekend, taking three of three from the Twins in Minnesota. But they are still the odd team out when it comes to a tight three-team race for the Wild Card in the American League. They are 1.5 games back of Oakland entering Monday and 2.5 games behind Tampa Bay. The A's are in Houston to start the week, which will be a tough series for them and that means Cleveland is going to need to make up some ground here in Los Angeles. Monday's starter will be Shane Bieber and he should hold up his end of the bargain. Bieber has been great on the road this year, owning a 2.85 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Going back to a complete game one-hitter he threw against Toronto on 7.24, Bieber has allowed no more than three earned runs in any of his last nine starts. But we're not sure the Cleveland offense can be trusted in this spot. The Indians last four games have all gone Under. Patrick Sandoval remains winless in five starts for the Angels, who are out of playoff contention, but he's given up just one run and two hits his last two times out. This has all the making of a low-scoring affair with major injuries affecting both lineups. The Indians are without Naquin and Ramirez while the Angels could be without Mike Trout. Bieber has started twice against the Angels in his career and has won both times, producing a 2.45 ERA. The Under is 10-2-1 in Bieber's 13 starts on the road this season. Play UNDER Cleveland-LA Angels AAA | |||||||
09-09-19 | Texans v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 28-30 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on NEW ORLEANS The Saints laying less than a touchdown at home, in primetime? We'll take it! As you'll likely hear from many places, New Orleans has excelled in that very situation through the years. They almost never lose in primetime here at the Superdome and no matter what the line is they almost always cover. In fact, they are 24-11 in all primetime games since 2006, 22-8 when you exclude Thursday nights. Now you'll also hear about how the Saints are just 1-9 SU/ATS the first two weeks of the season the last five years, including 0-5 SU/ATS in season openers. They did lose outright as a big favorite last year to Tampa Bay, here at home. But look for that streak to get snapped in a major way Monday night. The Texans are just 4-10 ATS all-time on Monday Night Football. Having just traded Jadeveon Clowney, there are questions with this Houston defense. Drew Brees isn't about to let them figure it out either. Brees even got a new target this year in TE Jared Cook, who is coming off a career year in Oakland. Expect the Saints to be highly motivated for this game after the way last season ended. Houston isn't exactly known for starting the season well. They opened 0-3 last year. Winning in this building is hard and we just don't see the Texans being able to do it. They are just 3-7-1 ATS their last 11 road games while the home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times these teams have met. Play on NEW ORLEANS AAA | |||||||
09-08-19 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | Top | 3-33 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on the Steelers (FIRST HALF) Think the Steelers miss Antonio Brown at this point? Ha! Lost in last year's disappointing season was the fact the Black and Gold earned a rare win over the Patriots. They beat them 17-10 at home in Week 15. The win snapped a five-game losing streak to the Patriots. Having rid themselves of Brown's antics, the Steelers should be a more focused and better team this year. We look for them to cover the first half line here. Pittsburgh is the last time to beat New England. More worrisome then Ben Roethlisberger losing Brown is Tom Brady losing Rob Gronkowski. New England's offense just wasn't as productive the last couple years when Gronk was out. On defense, the Steelers may finally have found a replacement for Ryan Shazier by drafting Devin Bush. By the way, they were a perfect 5-0 ATS as underdogs last season, winning four of the games straight up. Among the areas Pittsburgh will be improved in is turnover margin. They were -11 last year. Teams with a bad turnover margin usually see that number improve the following season. Expect the Steelers defense to be better this year and the Patriots defense to be worse. We expect the Steelers to be ahead at halftime, or at least covering. Play PITTSBURGH 1st Half AAA | |||||||
09-08-19 | Lions v. Cardinals UNDER 46.5 | Top | 27-27 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Two teams looking to improve start the season against one another, so either Detroit or Arizona will be 1-0 after the first game. That's the good news. The bad news is one of them will be 0-1. For Arizona, there's lots of room to improve after finishing with the league's worst record in 2018. They brought in a new coach (Kliff Kingsbury), who will bring his "Air Raid" offense from the college ranks. It will be run by last year's Heisman Trophy winner, Kyler Murray. But this is going to be a work in progress and you shouldn't expect the Cardinals to put up big point totals early on in the season. They just don't have the offensive personnel as was obvious last year when they were last in the league in scoring at 14.4 points/game. As for the Lions, Matt Stafford is still here and he's (kind of?) got a running game now. But Detroit only averaged 20.3 points/game last year (25th) and stayed Under in each of its last seven games. That's what we look for here. Neither offense has improved enough to have this game go Over. The Lions defense was pretty good last year, ranking in the top 10 in yards given up and top 8 against the pass. The Under is 21-7 in Arizona's last 28 home games. Play UNDER Detroit-Arizona AAA | |||||||
09-08-19 | Ravens -6.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 59-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BALTIMORE Probably the easiest call on the first Sunday of the NFL season would be taking the Ravens to beat the Dolphins. Now there's a pointspread in play here obviously and that number has come up (by several points) since it opener. But Miami is going to be so bad that this year that the line move hardly scares us. Remember what happened in Week 1 last year? Baltimore was facing a Buffalo team that - at the time - many thought could be the worst in the league. The Ravens won that game 47-3! Ryan Fitzpatrick is starting for the Dolphins, which doesn't sound very promising. This team is clearly tanking this year, which is why it recently traded away Laremy Tunsil, Kiko Alonso and Kenny Stills despite not having adequate replacements. If all goes according to plan in Miami, they will end up with the first pick in the Draft next April. If all goes according to plan in Baltimore, they will be back in the playoffs. Lamar Jackson took over at QB in the middle of last season and that's when the Ravens went on their run. Jackson should have a big game here - both running and throwing - against a Miami defense that will struggle to stop anybody this year. Baltimore is on an 8-3 SU/ATS run in Week 1 games where it has allowed an average of just 14.9 points. Play on BALTIMORE AAA | |||||||
09-08-19 | Chiefs -170 v. Jaguars | Top | 40-26 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KC Moneyline It very well could end up being close, but we look for the Chiefs to beat the Jaguars in Week 1. Kansas City is coming off a tremendous year in which it hosted the AFC Championship Game (lost to the Patriots). Jacksonville went 5-11 a year ago, leading to wholesale changes. The most notable is that Nick Foles, the Super Bowl hero from two years ago, is now the starting QB. But the Jaguars are simply not on the Chiefs level - yet. These teams played last year - at Arrowhead Stadium - and the Chiefs won 30-14 after scoring on their first four offensive possessions. The Chiefs had one of the best offenses in league history last year. The Jaguars were one of the NFL's worst offensive teams. Foles alone cannot rectify the difference. The Chiefs have covered seven straight September games. Pat Mahomes is 6-2-1 ATS on the road. Kansas City wins this game as they are the better team. Play Kansas City (money line) AAA | |||||||
09-07-19 | Minnesota v. Fresno State UNDER 47 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER Minnesota and Fresno State met last year and it was a 21-14 win for the Golden Gophers at home. Fresno State would lose just one other time the rest of the season, to Boise State, and would later avenge that defeat in the Mt West Champ Game. Now they get a shot at avenging the other loss and this time they get the Gophers at home. We expect it once again to be a low-scoring affair. Minnesota barely gained 300 total yards in an unimpressive win over South Dakota State in the opener. Fresno State scored 23 in its loss to Southern Cal. The only games they scored fewer last season were the two losses and the win over Boise State. Minnesota has one of the better defenses they'll see all year and the Bulldogs have just three starters back on offense. The Under is 19-7 in Fresno's last 26 games overall. It's also now cashed in Minnesota's last five games. This should be a late-night slugfest. Play UNDER Minnesota-Fresno State AAA | |||||||
09-07-19 | Arkansas v. Ole Miss -6 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 50 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OLE MISS Ole Miss takes on Arkansas here in the SEC opener for the both teams. The way each team chose to open its season was very different. Ole Miss went on the road to play a Memphis team that may be as good as any in the Group of Five. They lost, 15-10, but looked a lot better in the second half. Arkansas, fresh off a 2-10 year, opened against Portland State and only won 20-13. So despite winning, the Razorbacks were probably the less impressive side in Week 1. That's certainly affected our read on this Week 2 matchup, which takes place in Oxford and that's not a good deal for the Hogs. They have lost their last eight SEC openers by an average of three touchdowns. They didn't win a single time on the road last year and lost to Ole Miss 37-33 at home. They've lost eight of their last nine road games as well. Despite only gaining 173 yards of offense last week, the Rebels need not hang their heads as the defense pitched a shutout in the second half. The offense got the ball back down 13-10, but got hit with a safety and never saw the ball again. Don't expect them to take Arkansas lightly here. Before last year, the Rebels had lost four straight times to the Hogs and they've lost the last three times to them at home. Not this year. We believe in the new coordinators in Oxford (Rich Rodriguez, Mike MacIntyre) and they'll get their first win this week. Play on OLE MISS AAA | |||||||
09-07-19 | Phillies v. Mets -148 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -148 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the METS It wasn't easy, but the Mets beat the Phillies last night, 5-4, by drawing a bases loaded walk in the bottom of the ninth. They probably feel like it shouldn't have needed to get to that point as they led 4-2 going into the ninth, but closed Edwin Diaz failed to protect that lead. Ultimately though, things ended up going just as the Mets had hoped. Now, they look to make it four wins in five tries over the Phillies in the last two weeks and as an added bonus, they'll move ahead of them in the standings with a win here. Yes, these teams are now tied with matching 72-68 records. But the Phillies have lost three straight while the Mets have won five of their last seven. The Mets had a chance to sweep Philly last Sunday night with Marcus Stroman on the mound and failed. Stroman gets his second crack at the Phillies tonight. He actually pitched well last weekend, allowing just two runs in six innings. We like him a lot better than Drew Smyly, who has a 6.06 ERA and 1.60 WHIP this season. It was a better pitcher (Eflin) that Stroman was up against last Sunday. The Mets seemingly have the momentum right now and are 9-3 their last 12 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Play on NY METS AAA | |||||||
09-07-19 | Angels -150 v. White Sox | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the ANGELS The Angels were able to come from behind and "steal one" from the White Sox last night, which has them in an excellent position to win two straight here in Chicago. LA came into this series in pretty rough shape as they'd just been swept in Oakland to fall to a season-low 11 games below .500. They found themselves down early to the White Sox last night and they were facing a 4-1 deficit as last as the seventh inning. But they were able to storm back against the embattled White Sox bullpen for the 5-4 victory. They were underdogs on the money line last night, but that's changed for tonight, likely due to the starting pitching matchup. Friday, they had to face the White Sox best pitcher, Lucas Giolito. Tonight it's Dylan Covey, who is not having a good season at all. Covey is 1-6 in 10 starts and has a 7.17 ERA/1.57 WHIP. The White Sox have lost his last four starts and he has a 21.59 ERA and 2.55 WHIP in the last three (no joke!). Andrew Heaney has done a pretty good job pitching for the Angels of late with a 2.37 ERA his last three starts. Back in July, he held Chicago to three runs in seven innings. Play on LA ANGELS AAA | |||||||
09-07-19 | Paul Felder v. Edson Barboza -172 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -172 | 173 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BARBOZA Edson Barboza should make quick work of Paul Felder in the semi-main of UFC 242. These lightweights met four years ago wih Barboza winning a unanimous decision. We don't see how the rematch goes any differently, with the possible exception of a Barboza finish. While we do have to concede the fact Barboza has lost three of his last four fights, this one is a step down in class. Barboza remains one of the division's best at 155 lbs and has some of the best leg striking anywhere. His more aggressive opponents have been able to derail his attack somewhat, but that's not Felder. At one point, Felder's time in the UFC looked like it was coming to an end. But a win over Daron Cruickshank (a fight he was losing at one point) begat a 6-2 run for him. Still, there's not much reason to believe he stands a chance in this rematch. Play EDSON BARBOZA AAA | |||||||
09-07-19 | Southern Miss v. Mississippi State -16.5 | Top | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MISSISSIPPI STATE Mississippi State is expected to take a step back this season. They lost a lot of talent (to the NFL) from a defense that allowed just 13.2 points/game a year ago. It doesn't help that they have two holdovers currently suspended as well. Last week, they gave up 28 points to a Louisiana Lafayette team that quite frankly isn't very good. 28 points was the most allowed in any game by MSU last year. They allowed more than 20 just two times. But on the bright side, the defense forced five turnovers last week, the offense scored 38 points and the team won. We look for the defense to play a lot better this week against Southern Miss. Something to consider is that last week's game was played in New Orleans. Mississippi State is 11-3 ATS its last 14 games in Starkville. Southern Miss played a tune-up game against Alcorn State, but that will hardly have them ready for this step up in class. The Golden Eagles only could run for 96 yards on 31 carries and thus actually lost the time of possession battle. If they can't push around an FCS opponent, how are they going to get a surge against a SEC defense? The answer is "they won't." Play on MISSISSIPPI STATE AAA | |||||||
09-07-19 | Ohio v. Pittsburgh -4 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 43 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on PITT Ohio might not be a program you pay much attention to, but the Bobcats have achieved plenty of success in the 15 years Frank Solich has been here in Athens. Solich is actually the third longest tenured head coach in College Football, trailing only Gary Patterson (19 years) at TCU and Kirk Ferentz (21 years). The Bobcats have actually gotten some run as the team to come out of the Group of Five this year, but this week's game is one of two where they'll definitely be the underdog (the other is next week's game at Marshall). The key to this team is QB Nathan Rourke. The offense averaged 40 points/game with him at the helm last year. But only three other starters from that offense are back. Despite losing 30-14 to Virginia last week, Pitt is going to be an improved team this year. The Panthers led that game at halftime, only to get shutout in the 2nd half. It was a sloppy effort, one that saw them turn the ball over twice, get a punt blocked and not protect the QB well. We look for Pat Narduzzi's team to clean things up a bit as they can't afford to start the year with consecutive losses at home as there's game at Penn State looming next weekend. Ohio won't be able to pressure Pitt QB Pickett as much as Virginia did and thus it'll be a lot better day for the Panthers offense. Play on PITT AAA | |||||||
09-06-19 | Rockies v. Padres -161 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -161 | 14 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN DIEGO All is not well in Colorado right now as the Rockies are on a season-worst nine game losing streak. Offensively, they are unlikely to turn things around, at least while still on the road. Just expect an automatic decline in runs from them outside Coors Field. This season has seen them score 6.2 runs/game at home and only 4.3 on the road. We have little positives to report from the pitching department as well. During this nine-game slide, there have been four times where the Rockies have given up 10 or more runs. One of those was the last time Tim Melville pitched, an 11-4 loss to the Pirates. San Diego probably won't need to score much to win tonight. Lamet had 10 strikeouts in his last start and also held the Rockies to two runs and three hits the last time he faced them. The Padres were also swept in their last series (by Arizona), but that was on the road. At home, better results should be expected. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA | |||||||
09-06-19 | Angels v. White Sox -144 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -144 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the WHITE SOX The White Sox have the pitching edge tonight and that alone should be enough to defeat the floundering Angels at home. LA comes in on four-game losing streak as they were just swept up in Oakland. That has them 11 games below .500, something we have not seen from them in three years. Compounding problems is they have to face Lucas Giolito tonight. Giolito has been Chicago's best pitcher in 2019. They are 16-11 when he pitches and his individual numbers indicate he's probably due a better record than that. The last three have seen Giolito turn in a 2.57 ERA and 0.71 WHIP! Opposing him will be Dillon Peters, whose last three starts have been quite the opposite (7.20 ERA, 1.73 WHIP). It is very unlikely that Peters can keep his team in this one. While it's not often Chicago is favored like this, they are 9-2 at -125 to -175 this season. They win here. Play on CHICAGO AAA | |||||||
09-06-19 | Wake Forest v. Rice +19.5 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on RICE Wake Forest came into the year with some hype and made good on it to some degree by winning its season opener 38-35 over Utah State. The spread closed at -4.5, so the Demon Deacons ended up not covering the number and now they find themselves in even rarer territory. It's three scores that they are laying to the Rice Owls Friday night, on the road. Wake Forest has only been a road favorite three times for current coach Dave Clawson, who is in his sixth-year at Winston-Salem. Their ATS record in those games is 0-3. This will be the first time they are laying double digits on the road since the 2008 season opener against Baylor, who went into that game with a first year starter named Robert Griffin III. So it's been awhile. Rice obviously isn't very good, but they held their own last week against Army, losing only 14-7 as a 23-point underdog. They did give up 231 yards rushing, but that came on 56 carries. Wake Forest ran for 178 yards last week, on 58 carries, or just 3.1 yards per attempt. That's not very good. If Rice was able to defend Army's triple option, then they should stymie Wake Forest's ground game too and stay well within the number. Play on RICE AAA | |||||||
09-06-19 | Rangers v. Orioles -129 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -129 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BALTIMORE The Orioles aren't favored to win very often, but they are here and we expect them to step up and deliver. Texas did win last night's game, 3-1, but did so despite only five hits in their latest putrid effort at the plate. The last three games have seen the Rangers score only five runs and they've been held to three or less in eight of the last ten ballgames. The Rangers aren't a good road team (29-44), so even though Baltimore isn't very good anywhere, this is a good chance to pick up a rare win. Bundy will start; he's allowed 3 ER or less in five of his previous six outings. The Orioles are a respectable 3-3 in those games including a win as a +155 dog (against Tampa Bay) the last time Bundy started here at Camden Yards. Not sure we've seen enough of Brock Burke to make any definitive conclusions, but the Texas southpaw hasn't gotten much run support and it's hard to imagine him pitching any better than he has in his first three starts. Before last night's win, the Rangers were just 1-6 their last seven games here in Baltimore. Play on BALTIMORE AAA | |||||||
09-05-19 | Packers v. Bears UNDER 47 | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the UNDER The Bears had a top flight defense last season, leading the league in interceptions with 27 while allowing a league-low 27 touchdowns. While they do have to replace defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, virtually all the same personnel returns for second year coach Matt Nagy, with one notable exception. That would be Adrian Amos, who will now start at safety for Green Bay! Interestingly enough, Amos' replacement is former Bear Ha-Ha Clinton Dix. The Packers defense should be better this year thanks to eight new starters. The offense is actually a more interesting deal. The numbers last year were not all that impressive even though Aaron Rodgers played a whole season. That was part of the reason Mike McCarthy is gone. New coach Matt LaFleur has installed a new offense and don't be surprised if, as great as he is, it takes Rodgers some time to adjust. The Packers, who don't run the ball that well to begin with, will likely struggle to run in this game. Chicago closed last season on a 5-0 Under run. Green Bay closed on a 7-3 Under run. Both meetings last year ended up with similar point totals, 47 and 41, and we don't think there will be more points scored here. Five of the last seven meetings have seen 47 or less total points scored. Play UNDER Green Bay-Chicago AAA | |||||||
09-05-19 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON -1.5 (Run Line) Believe it or not, but there was a time early in the season when Seattle was ahead of Houston in the American League West standings. The Mariners started 13-2 out of the gate while Houston was only 10-5 through its first 15 games. Things have obviously gone quite differently since then. Seattle is just 45-80 since while Houston has gone 80-45, leading to a 32 game gap in the standings entering this series. We expect things to go very well on Friday for the Astros, so much so that we'll gladly lay the -1.5 on the run line here. Wade Miley, who has a 20-8 team start record, gets the nod tonight. He has a 3.86 ERA in four starts vs. Seattle this year which includes a win the last time he faced them. Miley has won seven straight decisions coming into tonight. Remember that Houston still has a lot to play for, namely home field advantage. Seattle has nothing left to play for and is an abysmal 1-12 vs. the Astros this year. Their starter for Friday, Marco Gonzales, has really struggled against Houston in his career. He's 0-4 with a 7.50 ERA. Houston is 51-17 at home and 16-3 after an off day. The Mariners a 4-12 as road dogs of +175 to +250. Should be a very easy win for the home team in this one. Play HOUSTON -1.5 on the RUN LINE AAA | |||||||
09-04-19 | Angels v. A's -156 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OAKLAND The weekend saw the A's lose twice in the final at-bat at Yankee Stadium. Coming off that, they needed to rebound and that's exactly what they did Tuesday with a 7-5 win over the Angels. That result pulls them into a tie with Cleveland for the second Wild Card, though technically they are percentage points ahead. There's no time to rest on their laurels, however. One positive is the A's have four games in hand compared to the team that leads the Wild Card, Tampa Bay, and there's only a one-game difference right now between the Rays and A's/Indians. We expect Oakland to win again tonight. Not only are the Angels just 3-14 their last 17 road games, they've also fallen to a season-worst nine games under .500. They haven't been this far below .500 since finishing the 2016 season at 74-88. Both bullpens were called upon early in last night's game. That puts a greater onus on the two starters for Wednesday and in that regard it's advantage A's as Tanner Roark (26 starts in '19) is far more battle-tested in the role than the Angels' Patrick Sandoval (just 4 starts). Sandoval, who has a 5.71 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, has really struggled. His only two prior road starts saw him give up 9 runs in 9 innings. The A's need this one too badly to lose and the Angels are struggling too much to win. Play on OAKLAND AAA | |||||||
09-04-19 | Mets v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 8* on the OVER The Nationals absolutely stunned the Mets last night, scoring seven times in the bottom of the ninth to win 11-10. So much for a low-scoring game with deGrom and Scherzer as the two starting pitchers. Now, to be fair, over half the total runs scored in the game came in the 9th inning. (The Mets actually scored five in the top half!) and the game was only 4-2 heading into the 8th. While still technically in playoff contention, last night's result had the vibe of a "season-killer" for the Mets. As for the total, it won't be the likes of deGrom or Scherzer starting tonight, but rather Wheeler and Sanchez instead. Both have seen each of their last three starts go Over. In the case of Sanchez, it's four straight. We obviously know what both bullpens are "capable of" here. As bad as the Mets bullpen was last night, Nationals' relievers actually have the lowest ERA in the National League (5.95). (The Mets are 3rd worst). Let's also not forget what Washington has done at the plate over the last few weeks. Last night was the 5th time they went for 11+ runs since August 14th. They've scored at least seven runs in 15 of their last 21 games, a stretch which has seen them go 17-4. Expect a high-scoring affair Wednesday afternoon. Play OVER Mets-Washington AAA | |||||||
09-03-19 | Mets v. Nationals -129 | Top | 10-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the NATS With a pitching matchup like deGrom vs. Scherzer, it might seem tough to pick a side, but the Nationals are too hot to be denied right now. This past weekend, they swept the Marlins, scoring 23 runs in the process. That may not sound all that impressive, but it ran their record to 19-5 over the last 24 games. Now they did lose here to the Mets last night, 7-3. But that was when the pitching matchup was decidedly in the Mets favor. It's also been nearly a month since Washington last lost back to back games. The Mets were once hot too, but that's since subsided with them losing 7 of their last 10. They are actually just 10-17 when deGrom starts this year, shocking, but nothing new as last year they were 14-18 with him on the mound. Scherzer has yet to go more than 4 1/3 innings since returning from injury (he's made two starts). But expect him to be "full systems go" tonight. While the Mets have won both deGrom vs. Scherzer matchups this season, those came before Memorial Day.Washington is a decidedly better team right now. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
09-03-19 | Mystics v. Liberty +15 | Top | 93-77 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NEW YORK The Liberty are catching a ton of points Tuesday and are at home against the Mystics. Yes, we fully realize where each team is at in the standings right now, but it's just too many points to lay on the road. Even with the best record in the league, Washington is only outscoring teams by 11.8 points/game this year. They've won eight of nine and did beat the Liberty by 29 a little over a week ago. As for the Liberty, they've lost four in a row and went 1-11 in August. But still ... you just don't see WNBA team asked to lay this many points on the road very often. The Mystics scoring differential shrinks to +4.3 points per game on the road as they give up 80 PPG. So they are nowhere near as dominant on the road. This is their second road game in four days. They're short-handed with starter Kristi Toliver and backup PG Ariel Atkins both injured. As bad as things have gotten for the Liberty, they'll show up today. Play on NEW YORK AAA | |||||||
09-03-19 | Phillies v. Reds -125 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on the REDS The Reds fell to the Phillies 7-1 here at home on Labor Day, but that won't be happening again today. In fact, we're willing to bet on the reverse result taking place. Now the Reds did make an overnight pitching change here to Lucas Sims, who will go in place of the injured Alex Wood (back issues). That's actually an upgrade as Wood has really struggled, perhaps directly due to those lingering back issues. Sims has only made two spot starts this year, two months apart (May and July) and both coming against Milwaukee. All of the Phillies runs yesterday came on home runs as they hit four total. Look for their to be a "power outage" today, however. Philly is lucky to even be in playoff contention. They've given up more runs than they have scored while the same can NOT be said for the Reds, even though they're the team 10 games under .500. The Phillies starter for tonight is Vince Velasquez and he has an 8.53 ERA his past three starts and his last one on the road saw him give up seven runs to a Miami team that is 29th in the league in scoring. Play on CINCINNATI AAA | |||||||
09-02-19 | Notre Dame v. Louisville +18.5 | Top | 35-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LOUISVILLE Notre Dame is laying a lot of points in this season opener, but based on how they and Louisville performed in 2018, that's no surprise. The Fighting Irish finished 12-1, the only defeat coming at the hands of Clemson in the CFP. Louisville won just two games (lost 10!) with one of those coming against a FCS program. The other was by three over Western Kentucky, a game that they were favored to win by 17 points. Nine straight losses to end the season means there's a new coach on campus as Scott Satterfield comes over from Appalachian State. Perhaps the biggest indictment on Louisville's 2018 season is that they finished 1-11 ATS, the worst such mark in the country. They'll obviously be better in 2019 as Sattefield has a lot of returning talent to work with, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but also at quarterback. Meanwhile, you should look for Notre Dame to slip a bit this year. They had a really lucky record in close games last year, going 7-0 in those decided by eight points or less. While we would be shocked if Louisville won this game, it is a hefty number the Cardinals are getting due mainly to last year's poor effort. But it's a new coach, a new season and we expect them to perform a lot better at the betting window. The Irish were never asked to lay more than 11 points away from South Bend last year. Play on LOUISVILLE AAA | |||||||
09-02-19 | White Sox v. Indians OVER 10 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the OVER Cleveland has sustained some serious attrition over the last week or so, losing three key hitters from the everyday lineup. They are Jose Ramirez, Tyler Naquin and Jason Kipnis. The former two are going to be out for an extended period of time with Naquin done for the year. These injuries have come at a most inopportune time for the Indians as they are in a tight race for the Wild Card. Getting swept over the weekend in Tampa Bay was a worst case scenario. But thankfully they get to play the White Sox this week. There is one key return for Cleveland and that's Carlos Carrasco, who was diagnosed with Leukemia and will now pitch in a relief role. Chicago has lost six in a row. So this should be a bounce back game for the Indians. But bet the Over instead. Even with the injuries, Cleveland's lineup should have its way with Ross Detweiler, who has been pretty bad this year. He gave up five runs in four innings his last start. Monday's starter for the Indians, Aaron Civale, has looked great. But we don't think he'll be able to maintain his current numbers. The Over is 8-2-2 in Chicago's last 12 road games as they'd given up 31 runs in the three games before yesterday's 5-3 loss. The Over is also 10-3 in the Indians last 13 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Play OVER Chicago-Cleveland AAA | |||||||
09-02-19 | Edmonton +3.5 v. Calgary | Top | 9-25 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on EDMONTON Edmonton has revenge on the mind as they lost the first "Battle of Alberta" of 2019. It took place four weeks ago as they came to Calgary actually slightly favored and lost 24-18. The Eskimos defense, as per usual, did its job in allowing just 227 yards. No defense is allowing less yards/game in the league this year. But the difference in that prior meeting was a 103-yard kickoff return by Calgary's Terry Williams. The Edmonton offense was also held scoreless for the first half. We don't expect that to happen again and look for the Eskimos to shore the special teams up as well. The big story coming into this game is the return of QB Bo Levi Mitchell for the Stampeders. Calgary has lost two in a row going into last week's bye and the time off made Mitchell returning here a logical landing point. But will he be the same Bo Levi Mitchell that we're accustomed to seeing? Don't think so. Not against this defense. Edmonton lost last week despite holding a substantial edge in yards, so don't look for them to roll out the welcome mat for Mitchell. The Eskimos have covered 4 of the last 5 times that they've been off an ATS loss. As for the Stampeders, they are 0-4 ATS the last four times they've been off a straight up loss. Bottom line is that recent history shows Edmonton is more likely to bounce back and don't expect Mitchell to come in and dominate in his return. Play on EDMONTON AAA |
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Ricky Tran | $868 |
Will Rogers | $491 |
William Burns | $415 |
Nick Parsons | $345 |
Joseph D'Amico | $282 |
Ross Benjamin | $255 |
Sean Murphy | $226 |
Tom Macrina | $149 |
Joey Tron | $113 |
ProSportsPicks | $107 |