Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-01-22 | Astros v. A's +1.5 | 5-4 | Win | 105 | 9 h 17 m | Show | |
8* A'S RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Justin Verlander is 6-2 with a 2.03 ERA, but he's coming off his worst start of the season, allowing 6 runs off 10 hits in a 6-1 loss to the Mariners on Friday. I think Verlander will struggle to maintain his rosey numbers moving forward. The A's are the "hungrier" revenge-minded dog in this fight. I say that Cole Irvin is equally matched here, as he's 2-2 with a 3.15 ERA. Oakland is off B2B losses here to open this series, but note that it's 7-3 in its last 10 in trying to revenge B2B home losses against an opponent. Great value here with the A's on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-31-22 | Oilers v. Avalanche UNDER 7 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -123 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
10* UNDER (WCF TOY) Both teams finished in the Top 5 in scoring this year. Neither was that great defensively though or in net. The winner of this series though is going to be the one that plays the better defense. Colorado finished with the slightly better defensive stats, but these starting goaltenders' stats are very equal here during the playoffs. Edmontons' Mike Smith has started all 12 games and he's posted a sharp 2.70 GAA, while the Avs Darcy Kuemper has a 2.54 GAA. Expect these two competent netminders to garner most of the attention in tomorrow's summaries of this contest; the play is the under! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-31-22 | Brewers v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) While I do think an outright victory is possible, my official call will be to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in your back pockets. The Brewers have won 3 straight, including a 7-6 victory in the opener of this series, and then 3-1 in yesterday's contest. That's 2 straight tight games, and all signs once again point to a "nail-biter" here too in my opinion. And after 3 straight losses, clearly Chicago is the "hungrier" dog in this fight. Eric Lauer (5-1, 2.31 ERA), has been unbelievable so far for Milwaukee, but I think his sparkling numbers are unsustainable. Regression is imminent here vs. these revenge-minded Cubbies. Chicago counters with Justin Steele (1-5, 5.40), who like his team, won't be lacking for motivation today as he tries to get untracked. In a contest that'll "come down to the wire," I'm grabbing the home side on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-31-22 | Nationals +1.5 v. Mets | 0-10 | Loss | -130 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
8* NATIONALS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Washington fell 13-5 to the Mets yesterday, but I'm expecting a much closer battle on Tuesday. After 4 straight victories, I expect the Mets to have a bit of a letdown here (note as well that Washington is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it allowed 10 or more runs in as well.) Patrick Corbin (1-7, 6.30 ERA) won't be lacking for motivation here today. His offense hasn't been a problem, so expect the Nats' to take advantage here in this revenge spot. The home side counters with Trevor Williams (0-3, 4.73), who also hasn't been anything special this season. I think Corbin gets back on track here; that said, the official play is the Nationals on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-30-22 | Rangers v. Hurricanes -142 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -142 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
10* CANES (GOW) No need to overthink this one. The home side has won every game in this series. We can expect that trend to continue here as well. During the reg. season the Canes won 3 of 4 in the series. The Canes though are 9-0 their last 9 at home, while New York is just 1-6 in its last 7 here. Antti Raanta has allowed 1 goals in 5 out of the 6 games he's started at home. Look for Hurricanes to dig deep and deliver in friendly confines! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-30-22 | Rays v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
RANGERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) The Rays have the better starting pitcher on the hill, but I like the Rangers to dig deep here and deliver. Drew Rasmussen (5-1, 2.68 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while Glenn Otto (2-2, 4.91) gets the nod for the home side. Note that Texas is 6-4 the L10 in this series. The Rangers are surging, playing their best baseball of the year, as they're going for their 5th straight win tonight. Texas has scored 23 runs at home over its last 3 games. Look for that impressive offense to once again, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably cover with the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Texas on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-30-22 | Twins -158 v. Tigers | 5-7 | Loss | -158 | 6 h 32 m | Show | |
8* TWINS (DESTRUCTION) Often I'll break down a matchup completely, looking at various stats and trends. Other times though I feel a "simpler" approach is the best way to look at a contest. And that's the case here. This is a major starting pitching mismatch and I'm not expecting any upsets this afternoon. In fact, the Twins should/could be much bigger favs in this spot. Dylan Bundy (3-2, 4.54 ERA) gets the call for the visitors, while Beau Brieske (0-4, 5.04), gets the nod for the home side. Both teams are dealing with injury issues. That makes the men on the mound that much more important this afternoon. Look for Bundy to deliver in this favorable spot; the play is Minnesota! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-29-22 | Celtics -2.5 v. Heat | Top | 100-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (ART OF WAR) At the start of this series, home floor advantage meant a whole lot. But that trend has changed over the last two, and I'm expecting that trend to continue here. Boston won in Miami in Game 5, but it then fell in Game 6 at home. Look for the C's to dig deep here and to deliver again on the road. Note that Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it conceded 110 or more points in. We've broken this series down completely from start to finish, but the Celtics depth and their aggressive defensive play gets the job done in Game 7; the play is Boston! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-29-22 | Astros v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) While I do think the outright win is possible, I feel more comfortable here laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pockets. Yes, the Astros are out for revenge after dropping the first 2 games of this series, but Seattle is still the "hungrier" team in my estimation. Houston hands the ball to Luis Garcia (3-3, 3.38 ERA), while the home side counters with southpaw Marco Gonzalez (3-3, 3.74.) These starters are a "wash." Look for the surging M's to keep the pedal to the metal on Sunday; the play though is Seattle on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-29-22 | Royals +1.5 v. Twins | 3-7 | Loss | -123 | 7 h 8 m | Show | |
8* ROYALS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm going to grab the visitors on the runline option. Kansas City hands the ball to Zack Greinke (0-3, 4.53 ERA), while the home side counters with Sonny Gray (2-1, 2.60.) Greinke got out to a hot start, but he's cooled off a bit since. Here's a great opportunity to get untracked though against this middle of the pack Twins offense. Gray's sparkling numbers appear unsustainable for much longer. I say a step-back is in order here for the veteran. While I do think the outright win is possible, my official recommendation is indeed KC on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-28-22 | Hurricanes -102 v. Rangers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -102 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
10* HURRICANES (ASSASSIN) So far the home ice advantage has meant everything in this series, but I expect that trend to finally end here tonight. During the reg. season Carolina won 3 of 4. Carolina took Game 5 by a score of 3-1 and I expect an identical gameplan here in The Big Apple (Antti Raanta only faced 17 shots.) Igor Shersketin has been amazing for the Rangers, but look for Carolina's superior offense to get the job done here finally in Game 6; all things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-28-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -180 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
10* PHILLIES RUNLINE (RD) I play favorites. I play underdogs. I play totals. Here I think we're in fact getting great value laying the slightly higher price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Congrats to everyone that joined me with the Mets last night, my 10* MLB GAME OF THE YEAR. Saturday though I'm going the other way, as I think this one'll be decided late, or even in extras! These starters are evenly matched. Zach Wheeler is 1-3 with a 3.65 ERA for the Phillies, while Taijuan Walker is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA for the Mets. Regression seems imminent for the veteran Walker though. I'm banking on this being a very tight game, that's why I'm laying the price with the Phillies on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-28-22 | Brewers v. Cardinals +1.5 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 22 m | Show | |
8* CARDS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Cardinals dropped the opener of this series by a score of 4-3, before then bouncing back in yesterday's 4-2 victory. We've had a couple of lower-scoring tighter battles to open this series, and all signs point to a similar result here as well. Matthew Liberatore is 0-0 with a 7.71 ERA for the Cards. This is his 2nd career outing. He gave up 4 runs over 5 innings to the Pirates in his first start, striking out 3 as well. I expect him to settle down here. Adrian Houser is 3-4 with a 2.98 ERA for the Brewers. He gave up 1 run over 6 innings vs. the Braves in his last outing. Off B2B gems though, I think regression is now in order. In a contest that I see being decided late or in extra innings, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the Cards on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-27-22 | Heat +9 v. Celtics | Top | 111-103 | Win | 100 | 36 h 37 m | Show |
10* HEAT (ART OF WAR) This has been a very back-and-forth series. As soon as we think we know what's going to happen, one or the other sides bounces back with a big performance. The Celtics have won two straight and can end this series with a victory today. Boston may well indeed go on to win this game outright, but I expect Miami to put up a bitter fight until the end. The Heat are well coached and I expect some major adjustments here. The Celtics have been unbelievable, but they're in unchartered territory here and I have my doubts that they have a killer closing instinct. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is Miami! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-27-22 | Avalanche -168 v. Blues | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show | |
8* AVS (BLOOD-BATH) The Blues have put up a valiant fight in this series, but I'm expecting it to end here in Game 6. Colorado is 7-1 in its last 8 in trying to revenge an OT home loss against an opponent. St. Louis is just 2-5 in its last 7 home games as well. Darcy Kuemper bounces back in net here for the Avs in my opinion, he's still 5-2 with a 2.50 GAA. Colorado is the better team and I expect it to jump out to an early lead tonight, and never look back; lay the price with confidence, the play is the Avalanche! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-27-22 | Phillies v. Mets -125 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
10* METS (GOY) After having yesterday off, and off back-to-back losses to San Francisco here at home, I love the way this one sets up for Carlos Carrasco and the Mets. It was just the second series all year that the Mets have lost. They haven't lost 3 straight games yet this year and I don't expect that trend to be broken tonight. Carrasco is 4-1 with a 3.50 ERA this season. He faces Bailey Falter, who is 0-1 with a 3.75 ERA. In 3 career starts vs. the Phillies, he's 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA. Philadelphia broke a 2 game slide with a satisfying 4-1 win at Atlanta last night. Expect an immediate return to mediocrity here for the Phillies though as they face this rested and determiend home side. Considering all of the different factors working in favor of New York here, I'd consider this to be the very definition of "great line value;" the play is the Mets! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-26-22 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 14-1 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Great value here on the home side with the runline option. The 29-14 Dodgers are at the 23-22 Diamondbacks. The Dodgers enter off a 1-0 loss to the Nationals. This is the final series of a 10-day, 3-city road trip for LA. Arizona will look to take advantage, as it comes in on top form, having won 5 of its last 6. The D-Backs had yesterday off to prepare for this one, after sweeping the Royals in 2 games. The Dodgers go with Mitch White tonight. He's 1-0 with a 6.17 ERA. He gave up 3 runs over 2 1/3's innings vs. the Phillies on Saturday. Arizona goes with Humberto Castellanos, who is 3-1 with a 4.29 ERA. In 4 starts this month he's gone 2-0 with an 18:3 K:W. While the outright is possible, the value is just too good to turn down for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Arizona on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-26-22 | Mavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
10* MAVERICKS (RD) The Mavericks finally broke through and won 119-109 in Game 4 to avoid the 4-0 sweep. They've given up some huge leads in two other games in this series, so the Mavericks have definitely been competitive so far. I think they keep the momentum rolling here as well. The Mavericks looked phenomenal in beating the Suns, and now they have a blue-print to do the exact same thing for the Warriors. Golden State won't be panicking, but it'll have its hands full here with this desperate visiting side. I'm not going to call for an outright victory or anything, but in a game that I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to grab the points; the play is the Mavericks! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-26-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Hurricanes | 1-3 | Loss | -200 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
6* RANGERS PUCKLINE (SPECIAL) I play underdogs. I play totals. I also play favorites. If I think I'm getting good value playing a favorite, then I have no problem laying chalk. That's the case here. In an evenly matched contest that I see being decided late, or possibly even in extra periods, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals in our back pocket. So far home ice has been key in this series, but that could easily change this evening after the momentum has shifted in favor of the visiting side. New York has made the necessary adjustments to counter Carolina, and I say that it has nothing at all to do with the venue of the contest. Lay the price, the play is the Rangers on the puckline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-25-22 | Celtics -1 v. Heat | Top | 93-80 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (RD) So far this has been a very back and forth series, but I expect that trend to end today. Boston dominated Game 4 and I expect it to keep the momentum rolling tonight. Miami is a great 3-point shooting team, but this Boston defense is incredible. They limited the Heat to just 33% shooting from the floor. Overall the C's allow just 104.5 PPG. Expect Boston's incredible defensive play to be too much for the Heat to handle down the stretch; the play is the Celtics! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-25-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Cleveland won the opener by a score of 6-1, before the Astros bounced back with a 7-3 victory last night. These starting pitchers are evenly matched though and I'm expecting a much more competitive battle in the finale. Cal Quantrill is 1-2 with a 3.48 ERA for Cleveland. He most recently allowed 1 run over 7 innings in a win over the Reds. Christian Javier is 2-2 with a 2.87 ERA for the Astros. He gave up 1 run over 6 innings to the Raners in his last outing. In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm laying the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is Cleveland on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-25-22 | Blues v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
10* PUCKLINE AVS (GOY) Colorado won Game 4 by a score of 6-3 and it now leads this series by a score of 3-1. With a chance to end the series here and now and get a few days rest until the Conference Finals, I expect Colorado to not only win this game, but to do so in blowout fashion. Ville Husso had a 25-7-6 record with a 2.56 GAA and .919 SV% for the Blues. Jordan Binnington is injured and out for St. Louis. Darcy Kuemper had a 37-12-4 record with a 2.54 GAA and a .921 SV% for the Avalanche. Look for Colorado to put the foot on the gas from start to finish; the play is the Avs on the puckline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-24-22 | Royals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ART OF WAR) These teams have sure been playing to several high-scoring affairs of late, but all signs finally point to a "duel" here on Tuesday night. The Royals go with Jonathan Heasley, who is 0-2 with a 4.32 ERA. He's been better than his win/loss record would indicate. And then Zac Gallen has been a bright spot all year for the D-Backs, as he's 3-0 with a tiny 1.14 ERA. As I said off the top, this one has all the making of a classic "pitchers duel;" the play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-24-22 | Warriors v. Mavs OVER 215.5 | Top | 109-119 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) I'm expecting a bit of a shootout here. Dallas is down 0-3, but it won't be going down without a fight. Note that the Mavericks have seen the total go OVER the number in 9 of their last 12 in trying to revenge 2 straight SU losses against an opponent. I was surprised that the Mavs got past the Suns. I'm also surprised though that the Warriors have a 3-0 lead. I think Golden State suffers a small mental lapse here and the Mavericks keep the foot on the proverbial gas pedal from start to finish; this number is low, the play is the over! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-24-22 | Hurricanes +102 v. Rangers | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
10* HURRICANES (RD) This has been a tight, lower-scoring series. The Hurricanes are still in the drivers seat though with a 2-1 lead and I say they bounce back here after the Game 3 loss. Note that Carolina is 7-1 in its last 8 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 1 or less goals in. Carolina had 44 shots on net last time out, and while Igor Shersketin has been great, I say he has a letdown here in Game 4. Great value on the Hurricanes! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-23-22 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -165 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
10* BLUES PUCKLINE (ASSASSIN) The Avs have a 2-1 series lead here after their 5-2 victory in Game 3. St. Louis though is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to revenge a 3 goals or greater home loss against an opponent. This has been a very competitive series. Despite the lop-sided loss last time out, Blues' goaltender Jordan Binnington still ranks No. 1 in the playoffs with a 1.72 GAA. It's do or die for Binnington and company (essentially.) In a game that I see being decided late (or even in extra time), I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals in our back pocket; the play is St. Louis on the puckline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-23-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6.5 | Top | 82-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (RD) This has been a back-and-forth series and I'm looking for Game 4 to follow suit. The Celtics will be risking life and limb today to try and even this series back up. Off the 109-103 Game 3 loss, note that Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which it was held to 105 or less points in. Boston still ranks first across most defensive stats, including leading the league in scoring defense. The Celtics are also 5-0 ATS in their last five following a SU loss. Look for the home side to double down defensively and then to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover; the play is the Celtics! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-23-22 | Guardians v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
10* OVER (BOB) These teams have been playing to several lower-scoring "unders" of late, but I expect those trends to end in the opener of this three-game series. The Guardians are off a 4-2 loss to the Tigers, their 4th loss in their last 6 games. Zach Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.42 ERA for the Guardians this year, but he's 0-2 with a ballooned 6.86 ERA over his last 4 starts. Houston sees Luis Garcia toe the slab. He's 3-2 with a 3.35 ERA. Garcia took a step back in his last outing though, allowing 5 runs off 5 hits over 4 innings in a loss to Boston on Wednesday. Two teams in dire need of a victory here. Two starters who are on the decline. Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. AAA Sports | |||||||
05-22-22 | Warriors +3 v. Mavs | Top | 109-100 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
10* WARRIORS (U OF THE U) Dallas is on the ropes. Luka Doncic is likely the best player on the floor in this series, but Golden State's offensive depth is just too much for the Mavericks to handle. Andrew Wiggins is out for the Warriors tonight, but it's just "next man up" mentality. Dallas threw its best possible punch at Golden State, and still came up short. I predict another tight battle here and I think it'll come down to the wire, literally the last team touching the ball is going to win type deal. And in a scenario like that, I'll gladly grab the points; the play is the Warriors! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-22-22 | Flames v. Oilers UNDER 7 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) So far the Battle of Alberta has been a competitive, high-scoring series. Calgary won Game 1 by a score of 9-6, before the Oilers bounced back with a 5-3 win in Game 2. The value has now shifted the other way as far as the total is concerned though in my opinion, as note that the Flames have in fact seen the total go "under" in 7 of their last 9 in trying to revenge a 2 goals or greater home loss against an opponent. The Flames had one of the best defenese in the league during the regular season, and I expect a return to form here on the road in this all-important Game 3 matchup. Yes, the first 2 games have flown well "over" the number, but Game 3 has all the makings of a classic "goaltenders battle." The play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-22-22 | Mariners v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 41 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) The first 3 games of this 4 game series have all flown well "over" the number, but on Sunday in the finale we can expect a classic "duel" finally. These teams are moving in opposite directions, but each is desperate for a victory here today. I really like Logan Gilbert here for Seattle and I think he'll settle the M's down here. He's 4-2 with a 2.40 ERA and 51 K's. Boston counters with Nathan Eovaldi, who is 1-2 with a 4.32 ERA. The totals on these games keep creeping higher and higher, and today's is now just too large. We'll go the other way here on the total in the fourth game, the play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-21-22 | Heat v. Celtics -6 | Top | 109-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (ASSASSIN) The Celtics looked a lot better with Marcus Smart and Al Horford in the line-up in Game 2, and I believe that with the series shifting to Boston, that the home side will build on that performance with another big win and cover and in Game 3. The Heat finished as No. 1 in the East, but there's no question that they were better at home than on the road (24-17 away.) Boston's tough defensive play, combined with the strong play of Jayson Tatum will be just TOO much for this now struggling HEat team to handle on Saturday night; lay the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-21-22 | Avalanche v. Blues +1.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -172 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
10* BLUES PUCKLINE (RED DRAGON) I'll argue that St. Louis has definitely been the better team in thi series. The Blues fell in OT in Game 1, but then in Game 2 they laid the hammer down with the 4-1 victory. Now back home, St. Louis is getting very little respect from the oddsmakers here. We can take advantage of that, but we'll lay the price here for the extra 1.5 goals in our back pocket. Great value overall on this line, considering the situation. Yes, the Avs dominated in the regular season, but now that the playoffs are here they're struggling defensively. Look for that to continue on Saturday night; the play is St. Louis on the puckline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-21-22 | Reds v. Blue Jays OVER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
10* OVER (IL TOY) Toronto has now seen the total go "under" the number in 6 straight after yesterday's tight 2-1 home win over the Reds. Suffice it to say, I'm expecting a much higher-scoring game here finally on Saturday (it's interesting to note that the Jays though have seen the total go "over" the number in 7 of their last 10 after playing to 5 or more straight "unders" in a row. The Reds have seen the total go "over" in 6 of their last 8 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which they were held to 1 or less runs in. Alek Manoah is 4-1 with a 1.71 ERA for the Jays. Regression is imminent in my opinion. Hunter Greene though is just 1-6 with a 6.21 ERA for the Reds. Look for these starters to get chased early and for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-20-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Warriors | Top | 117-126 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
10* MAVERICKS (BLOOD-BATH) Game 1 was evenly matched at half time, but then Golden State pulled away in the second. I expect a full four-quarter effort from the Mavericks tonight though. Dallas had an uncharacteristically horrible shooting night from several players, and I don't expect that to happen twice. The Mavericks now have to make adjustments after the 112-87 Game 1 loss, but they've done well in this spot for bettors by going 7-2 ATS in their last 9 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 90 or less points in. Much like the Heat's victory in Game 1 of their series with Boston, I'm expecting a letdown here from Golden State as well in Game 2. I'm not predicting an outright upset, but this one comes down to the wire; grab the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-20-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Hurricanes | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
10* RANGERS PUCKLINE (BOB) I'm laying the price here for the extra 1.5 goals in my back pocket. Game 1 was very tight, and it easily could have gone either way. Carolina was fortunate to come out on top in OT, getting a late third-period goal to force the extra time. We can expect an identical sort of game to play out here as well. Carolina has some goaltending issues now as well, with Frederik Anderson still missing games due to injury. The Rangers are still 35-17 in their last 52 in this series and I think they bounce-back here; that said, let's lay the price for the puckline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-20-22 | Reds +1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
10* REDS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Both teams are struggling at the plate. I think this opening matchup is much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. I like Luis Castillo here for the REds starting. He 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA, but he's faced Toronto 7 times in his career and has gone 4-2 with a 3.70 ERA. The Jays only average 3.68 RPG, so here's a perfect opponent for Castillo to get untracked against. The home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is 0-0 with a 9.00 ERA and who has never faced Cincinnati. I say this one gets decided late, or even in extras; because of that, let's grab the Reds on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-19-22 | Celtics +3.5 v. Heat | Top | 127-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (RED DRAGON) I had a play on Boston in Game 1 and while that selection came up short, I believe that the visiting side will bounce back and, at the very least, take this contest right down to the wire. Boston lost 118-107 in Game 1, but it's done well in this spot for bettors, as it's 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. Marcus Smart and Al Horford both could play after missing Game 1, which would shift this line even further towards a "pick em." Miami started off the first half slow, then came out like gang-busters in the second half of Game 1. Look for Boston's defense to respond and answer the bell here in this important contest. And while I do absolutely feel an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can; the play is Boston! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-19-22 | Rangers +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Rangers fly in under the radar here. They're off a 3-game sweep of the Angels, which featured a dramatic walk off win on Wednesday. The Astros come in with little momentum after going just 1-2 in Boston. Texas plays with revenge here after losing 3 of 4 at home to the Astros at the start of the season. But this Rangers line-up is raking now, led by Corey Seager with 8 home runs. Glenn Otto is 1-1 with a 6.38 ERA for the Rangers. He was lit up at Boston in his last start, but I think he settles down here. Framber Valdez is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA for the Astrros. Texas comes in with confidence. It's seeing the ball well. I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing this; the play is Texas on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-19-22 | Lightning v. Panthers -155 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
10* PANTHERS (ASSASSIN) I had a play on Tampa in Game 1, but I'll be laying the price with confidence here in Game 2, as I expect the Panthers to risk life and limb to ensure they don't get into an 0-2 hole. Tampa's been anything but consistent throughout these playoffs, susceptible to big stretches of futility. I say the Bolts are happy with having already earned a split. The Panthers looked a bit slow out of the gate in Game 1, but we can expect Florida to be the aggressor from the outset in this one. Finally, note that the Panthers are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent in which they were held to 1 or less goals in. The play is FLORIDA! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-18-22 | Oilers +1.5 v. Flames | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -175 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
10* OILERS PUCKLINE (2ND RND. PL GOY) Both of these inter-provincial teams needed seven games to advance to the second round. Each looked great at times, and very ordinary in others in their opening round. The Oilers were down 3-2 in their series to the Kings, but they won the final 2 games and I think they carry that momentum over here. Calgary clinched its series with a 3-2 win in Game 7 at home over the Stars. These teams have been very equal on both ends of the ice during the playoffs, but note that Calgary is just 1-4 in its last 5 conference semi-finals contests, while Edmonton is 7-3 in its last 10 road games. This one is going to come down to the wire, or even go into sudden death OT; I'll lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals in my back pocket! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-18-22 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 214.5 | Top | 87-112 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) If this opening game was in Dallas, I'd lean to the "under" likely. The Mavericks are off a big upset series victory over the Suns, and I think they carry that momentum over here. Golden State will try to take advantage of a tired Mavericks team that just had to play seven games by picking up the pace from the opening tip off, and continuing that pressure until the final horn. I think the defensive intensity will pick up in this series as it goes, but Game 1 definitely sets up as a higher-scoring affair. Finally, note that Golden State has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 home games as a favorite in the -4.5 to -7.5 points range. This number is low, the play is the "over!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-18-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -137 | 7 h 42 m | Show |
10* TIGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) The Tigers won the first game of this series by a score of 3-2, beore Tampa responded in yesterday's 8-1 victory. For the finale, I'm expecting a much tighter game. Eduardo Rodriguez gets the call for the Tigers, and he just threw 6.2 shutout innings in a win over Baltimore in his last outing. The home side counters with Drew Rasmussen, who also comes in off a gem, holding the Jays to just one run over 5.2 innings of work. These pitchers are evenly matched. As stated off the top, all signs point to this contest perhaps even going into extra innings; beause of that, let's lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-17-22 | Celtics +2 v. Heat | Top | 107-118 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (GOW) The Boston Celtics will be without the services of Marcus Smart for Game 1, but I still think they'll find a way to win this game. The quick turnaround is going to work in Boston's favor today after its Game 7 win over the Bucks. The Heat on the other hand come out flat here in my estimation after eliminating the 76ers in just six games. Boston went 2-1 in this matchup during the regular season. Jayson Tatum is a matchup issue. Kyle Lowry being out for Miami is big here at this point of the Playoffs. I expect Boston to draw first blood in the ECF! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-17-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 0-3 | Loss | -165 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
8* MARINERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Toronto took Game 1 of this series last night by a score of 6-2, but I expect a much tighter affair here on Tuesday. Both teams are in need of a win here, but in a contest that I think'll be decided late or in extra innings, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The bottom line here is, I think Logan Gilbert is the correct call in this starting pitching matchup over Jose Berrios. Gilbert is 4-1 with a 2.13 ERA, while Berrios is 2-2 with a 5.82 ERA. The M's have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one; the play is Seattle on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-17-22 | Lightning +1.5 v. Panthers | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show | |
6* LIGHTNING PUCKLINE (SPECIAL) This'll be an exciting series. Yes, the Bolts just had to go 7 games with Leafs, but I expect them to carry over that momentum here and to catch the Panthers a little flat-footed. Florida has a small advantage in the rest department, but not by much. Experience at this point of the playoffs is key. Honestly, I think the Lightning have a legitimate shot at taking Game 1 outright. However, at this decent mid-sized price, I'm going to gladly lay it for the extra 1.5 goals in our back pocket; the play is Tampa on the puckline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-16-22 | Angels v. Rangers +1.5 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 44 m | Show |
10* RANGERS RUNLINE (GOW) The Angels just took 3 of 4 from the A's over the weekend, while the Rangers dropped 2 of 3 to Boston. Texas was blown out in the first 2, but then bounced back with a blowout win of its own on Sunday. LA took 3 of 4 in early April, so the Rangers are out for revenge this week. Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for the visitors, an dhe owns a 2.45 ERA over 5 starts. He'll be opposed by Jon Gray, who owns a 5.51 ERA. Texas has actually done well in this spot for bettors, going 7-2 in its last 9 after scoring 10 or more runs in its previous game. This one will be decided late, or even in extras, so I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is the Rangers on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-16-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 2-6 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
9* MARINERS (RL BOB) The Mariners are 16-19 and the Blue Jays are 18-17. Toronto is off a series loss in Tampa, and fell 3-0 on Sunday. The M's took 2 of threa the Mets over the weekend. Chris Flexen is just 1-5, despite a decent 4.24 ERA for the Mariners this year. Overall the Mariners have posted a decent 3.74 collective ERA. The Jays return home after a poor 2-7 road trip. Yusei Kikuchi is 1-1 with a 4.15 ERA for the Jays. I believe these starters are a "wash." In a scenario like that, and in a contest that I expect to be decided late (or perhaps even in extra innings), let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Seattle on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-16-22 | Yankees v. Orioles +1.5 | 6-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 49 m | Show | |
8* ORIOLES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The lowly Baltimore Orioles won't be lacking for motivation today after 3 straight losses to Detroit over the weekend. The Yanks come in complacent after winning 7 of their la 10, including a 5-1 win at the White Sox yesterday. Luis Severino is 2-0 with a 4.08 ERA over 6 starts for New York, while Kyle Bradish is 1-1 with a 4.24 ERA over 4 starts for the Orioles. Baltimore though has done exceptionally well in this spot for bettors by going 7-2 ATS in its last 9 at home. Conversely, the Evil Empire has gone just 4-6 ATS in its last 10 overall. Look for Baltimore to jump on on this complacent Yanks side and to possibly even win outright; the play is the Orioles on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-15-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 123-90 | Win | 100 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
10* MAVERICKS (ASSASSIN) This has been a back-and-forth series, and I'm expecting a very tight affair here in Game 7. Every game in this series has been won by the home team, while also going 6-0 ATS. I say this lop-sided trend ends this evening. The Mavericks role players are going to step up here. The Mavs relentless defensive attack will be in full effect from the opening tip, until the final horn. Phoenix lacks that killer instinct, and while the Suns may well indeed go on to win this contest, expect it to be a real "nail-biter!" The play is Dallas! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-15-22 | Giants v. Cardinals +1.5 | Top | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
10* CARDINALS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) San Fran won the opener 8-2 and then St. Louis won 4-0 yesterday. I expect a much tighter game here in the finale, and that's why I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket. Carlos Rodon is 4-1 with a 1.80 ERA for the Giants, but I expect regression to kick in sooner, rather than later. The Cards counter with veteran Adam Wainwright, who is 3-3 with a 3.18 ERA and who I like here in friendly confines. Note as well that St. Louis is actually 8-3 in its last 11 off a shutout home victory. For all the reasons listed above, the play is St. Louis on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-15-22 | Penguins +1.5 v. Rangers | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show | |
6* PENGUINS PUCKLINE (DESTRUCTION) I play underdogs. I play totals. I play favorites. In a game that I think'll be decided in the final moments, or perhaps even in extra periods, I'm going to lay the larger price for the extra 1.5 goals in my back pocket. Sidney Crosby is listed as questionable, but whether he plays or not, these teams are very evenly matched. Pittsburgh is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to revenge 2 straight losses against an opponent, and while the Pens may fall, I expect this one to be a tight battle until the end; the play Pittsburgh on the puckline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-14-22 | Phillies v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) After 2 straight really high-scoring games to open this series, I'm expecting much more of a "duel" here on Saturday. Philadelphia has inexplicably taken the first 2 games, winning 9-7 and 12-10. The Dodgers have actually seen the total go "under" in 8 of their last 10 in trying to avenge 2 straight losses against an opponent. Ranger Suarez is 3-1 with a 3.68 ERA for the Phillies. He'll be opposed by Julio Urias, who is 2-2 with a 2.10 ERA. The numbers/trends point to a lower-scoring affair, and all signs point to a classic "duel" as well. This number is indeed a tad high now, so the play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-14-22 | Kings +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -130 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
10* KINGS PUCKLINE (BOB) An unprecedented 3 Game 7's being played tonight, including this one between the Kings and Oilers. Edmonton rallied to force a pivotal Game 7 in this series in LA. This has been a back-and-forth series and I expect Game 7 to be the most competitive so far. Edmonton's weakness is on the defensive end, and that's where Jonathan Quick and the Kings have the clear advantage. They say defense wins championships. In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra time, my strongest NHL play of the night will be to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals in our back pocket! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-14-22 | Yankees v. White Sox +1.5 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
8* WHITE SOX RUNLINE (SPECIAL) The White Sox had won 7 of 8 before dropping the first 2 of this series. They fell 15-7 in the first game and 10-4 yesterday. I expect a much tighter affair here. Jordan Montgomery is 0-1 with a 2.90 ERA for the Yanks. He's been solid. Dallas Keuchel is 2-3 with a 6.86 ERA for the White Sox. He's uncharacteristically struggled so far. Let's not overreact to either starters' performance to this point though. Note that Chicago is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to avenge B2B losses to an opponent. To say this is a "revenge" game as well would be an understatement, as the Yanks have won 8 of the L9 in this series. I say this one comes down to the wire; grab the ChiSox on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-13-22 | Flames v. Stars +1.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 38 h 27 m | Show | |
8* STARS PUCKLINE (SPECIAL) I play underdogs. I play totals. I also play favorites. Wagering on sports is about finding value, whether it's an underdog, a total or a favorite. Here I expect a highly competitive affair, one that'll likely be decided late, or even in extras. Because of that, I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals in my back pocket. Neither offense has looked great in this series. Dallas though is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. Look for a tight, competitive affair; the play is Dallas on the puckline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-13-22 | Celtics +2 v. Bucks | Top | 108-95 | Win | 100 | 36 h 26 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (GOM) The NBA would love to see a Game 7 here. I believe it's going to happen. That said, my recommendation will be to grab as many points as you can. The Celtics lost 110-107 in Game 5, but I expect this series to move to a pivotal Game 7. Giannis Antetokounmpo was great with 40 points, while Jayson Tatum scored 34 in a losing cause for the C's. These teams have alternated wins/losses since the series started. Note though that the Bucks are a poor 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games as a home favorite, while the Celtics are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven as an underdog. Boston's superior defense in this critical game will prove to be the difference tonight; buckle up for a Game 7, the play is the Celtics! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-13-22 | Mariners +1.5 v. Mets | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I had a play on the Phillies on the runline last night and did not need the extra 1.5 runs. This game on Friday between the Mariners and Mets may follow suit, but once again the value here with getting the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket is just too good to turn down in my opinion. Max Scherzer is 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA for the Mets, while Marco Gonzalez is 1-4 with a 3.91 ERA for the Mariners. The Mets are 9-0-1 in series this year, but regression is imminent at some point. Both starters are coming off losses. I think they're more evenly matched than what this large line is suggesting though. This one gets decided late or even in extras, so let's grab the Mariners on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-12-22 | Phillies +1.5 v. Dodgers | 9-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show | |
8* PHILLILES RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Philadelphia won 4-2 at Seattle yesterday, taking 2 of 3 from the Mariners, I believe the hungry visiting side will keep the momentum rolling here. The Dodgers just lost 2 of 3 to the Pirates, including yesterday's 5-3 setback. These pitchers are a "wash" in my mind essentially. The Phillies see Zach Wheeler toe the slab, while the home side counters with Tyler Anderson. Wheeler is 1-3 with a 4.10 ERA, while Anderson is 3-0 with a 2.78 ERA. In fact, regression appears to be in order for Anderson in my estimation. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is the Phillies on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-12-22 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 41 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Scoring may be down in MLB and the NBA, but scoring is UP in the NHL Playoffs. That said, I expect Tampa to really clamp down defensively here as they try to avoid elimination. The Leafs are on the cusp of finally winning a playoff series after their 4-3 win in Game 5. Tampa though has seen the total go "under" the number in 8 of its last 11 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. Game 1 went "under" the number, but the last 4 have all flown "over." But with the home side buckling down defensively like I expect here, the value has now finally swung the other way as far as the total is concerned; this number is high, the play is the under! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-12-22 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 207 | Top | 99-90 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 10 m | Show |
10* OVER (RED DRAGON) So far the "home floor advantage" has proven critical in this series. The Heat have won and covered in all three home games while the 76ers will be hoping they can pull off the same thing tonight as well with a victory here in Game 6. These teams have been following a familiar pattern with their totals as well, flip-flopping "overs" with "under" since Game 1. Off a lower-scoring battle in Game 5, we're expecting this pattern to continue here in a higher-scoring affair. The 76ers have to be the aggressor. Philadelphia can't take any lead for granted and it'll just have to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Also note that Philadelphia has seen the total go OVER the number in 8 of its last 11 in trying to revenge a 20 points or greater SU/ATS loss against an opponent; this number is low, the play is the OVER! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-11-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +3 | Top | 95-134 | Win | 100 | 38 h 57 m | Show |
10* GRIZZLIES (ASSASSIN) No Ja? No problem! The Grizzlies have done exceptionally well without their superstar in the line-up and with their backs against the wall, I expect their best collective effort tonight. Many will be pulling the trigger on GS here, thinking that without Morant, Memphis will struggle. But I think it'll be GS that struggles to put away this desperate home side. Memphis held the lead in the last game until the fourth quarter. Don't expect that to happen again here. Also note that Memphis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge 2 straight losses against an opponent. In a contest that I see being decided in the final moments, I'm grabbing the points; the play is Memphis! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-11-22 | Orioles +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-10 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 60 m | Show |
10* ORIOLES (IL RL GOY) The bottom line here is, I believe that the over-achieving Miles Mikolas is poised for some regression here after his sparkling start for the Cardinals. The Orioles have been decent, especially on the mound. They're 4th in the AL East currently. Spencer Watkins gets the nod to start things off for the visitors and he's 0-0 with a 3.22 ERA over 5 starts this season, posting 10 K's and 10 walks. Mikolas is 2-1 with a 1.53 ERA over 6 games, with 28 K's and 7 walks. Interestinly though, the Cards are just 1-6 in their last 7 vs. the AL East. Watkins has been at his best on the road with a 2.70 ERA and in a contest that I believe could even go to extra innings, I'm going to lay this very reasonable price for the exrta 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is the Orioles on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-11-22 | Penguins v. Rangers -129 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
10* RANGERS (DESTRUCTION) The Rangers have their backs against the wall. They were favored to win this series, but they've uncharacteristically struggled on both ends of the ice. Now down 3-1, I expect New York to extend this series at least one more game. The Pens took Game 4 by a score f 7-2, but note that the Rangers are a near-perfect 7-1 in their last 8 in trying to revenge a 5 goals or greater loss to an opponent. The Pens are still also just 3-8 in their last 11 on the road. Igor Shesterkin is an amazing talent and I look for the Rangers' netminder to bounce back here; the play is the Rangers! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-10-22 | Kings +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show |
10* KINGS PUCKLINE (ASSASSIN) This has been a wild series so far. The Kings won Game 1 by a sore of 4-3. The Oilers then Game 2 by a score of 6-0 and Game 3 by a score of 8-2. The Kings then bounced back and took Game 4 by a score of 4-0. Very unpredictable. The Oilers average 3.48 GPG, which ranks 7th, but they're Achilles heel has been their play on the defensive end where they allow 3.06 GPG. The Kings average 2.87 and allow just 2.83. They say defense wins championships. We're seeing this right now in both the NHL and in the NBA as being true in the playoffs. I think Game 5 will be the most competitive so far, so in a contest that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 goals in my back pocket; the play is the Kings on the puckline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-10-22 | Mavs +6 v. Suns | Top | 80-110 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
10* MAVERICKS (RED DRAGON) The Mavericks were a Top 5 defense in the regular season, and they've been fantastic so far in this series against the favored Suns as they enter off B2B victories, including a 111-101 win in Game 4. So far home floor advantage has proved critical in this series, but I'll say it's more about Dallas making adjustments after going down 0-2. Those adjustments and success will continue here in Game 3, and I'll argue that it has nothing to do with the venue, but more about the overall approach Dallas is employing now. If you're wagering on this game, you know the cast of characters and the strengths and weaknesses. The momentum as turned and this Dallas team is going to, at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. While I do think an outright win is possible, let's grab the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-10-22 | Brewers v. Reds UNDER 8 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* UNDER (DESTRUCTION) Both teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games leading into this one, but we can expect that direction to change tonight finally. Milwaukee has seen the total go "over" in 6 of its last 7 (including in yesterday's 10-5 defeat here.) The Brewers have lost 3 straight, and they've seen the total go "under" in 6 of their last 8 after three or more losses in a row. Cincinnati enters having seen the total go "over" in 8 straight. Let's not overreact to these starters early numbers. The home side goes with Hunter Greene, who is 1-4 with an 8.71 ERA. He gave up 5 home runs to the Brewers last Thursday. Greene is the Reds' top rookie prospect and I expect him to settle down here in the rematch. The Brewers go with Freddy Peralta, who is 1-1 with a 5.09 ERA so far this season. Peralta has to be feeling confident today though, as he's 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA in 15 career games vs. Cincinnati. All signs point to a lower-scoring "under" between these teams finally on Tuesday! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-09-22 | Grizzlies +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 98-101 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
10* GRIZZLIES (ASSASSIN) Why is this line so large suddenly? Because Grizzlies' star Ja Morant is injured. Memphis was going to get destroyed in Game 3 whether Morant went down or not though. It was a bad game overall for Memphis. The Grizzlies have always done really well without their star in the line-up though and I expect them to rally here and use the "next man up" mentality. The good news that's flying under the radar though for Memphis is that Dillon Brooks will be back after serving a 1-game suspension. The Warriors are in the drivers seat again in this series, but I expect a much more competitive affair in Game 4. Note that Memphis is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 in trying to revenge a SU/ATS loss of 20 or more points. I say Golden State wins, but the determined Grizzlies comfortably cover with the large spread they've been afforded; the play is Memphis! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-09-22 | Flames v. Stars +1.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -195 | 15 h 20 m | Show | |
8* STARS PUCKLINE (DESTRUCTION) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra periods, I'm going to lay the larger price for the extra 1.5 goals in our back pocket. The Stars have looked great over the L2 games, winning 4-2 last time out. The Flames were great during the regular season, but they're a much better home team overall. Both teams have great goaltending and defense, so that area's a "wash." The difference here though is that Dallas is 6-2 in its last 8 as a home dog in the +130 to +155 range. Lay the price, the play is the Stars on the puckline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-09-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 12-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
10* GUARDIANS RUNLINE (GOW) Cleveland has won 7 of its last 8. It just took 3 of 4 from Toronto. The Guardians fly in under the radar here as well. The White Sox have won 5 in a row. They just finished sweeping the Red Sox, all tight games, including yesterday's 3-2 victory. Zach Plesac is 1-3 with a 4.44 ERA for the Guardians, while Michael Kopech is 0-0 with a 1.17 ERA for the White Sox. Two good pitchers. Let's not overreact to their numbers at this point of the season, and instead classify them as a "wash." Chicago is overpriced here if that's the case. In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Cleveland on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-08-22 | Heat v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 108-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
10* PHILADELPHIA (ASSASSIN) The 76ers are clearly a "different" team with Joel Embiid in the line-up. With a chance to tie up this series, I look for Philadelphia's big man to help key his team to another win at home. Jimmy Butler had 33 points in Game 3 for the Heat, but this 76ers team does indeed look much better at home, especially on the defensive end. The rest of the Heat struggled to shoot, and I expect that to be the case again here. Miami took full advantage in Game's 1 and 2, but now the shoe is on the other foot. Embiid is once again listed as questionable, but with that first awkward game out of the way, we can expect the MVP candidate to be much stronger here in Game 4 all around. Look for the 76ers to dial up the pressure even more and lay these short points with confidence! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-08-22 | Maple Leafs +110 v. Lightning | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* LEAFS (BOB) These are two really good teams. Two teams filled with talent and experience. Their offensive and defensive numbers are very similar. Honestly, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either team to win today. The Lightning are in rebound mode here after a 5-2 loss in Game 3. Revenge? It works in some cases, but not here in my opinion. The Leafs (the players, coaches, the organization and its fan base), our without question the "hungrier" dog in this fight. The Leafs haven't won a playoff series in decades. Toronto will be risking life and limb again today and I think that's going to be the difference-maker. Tampa has depth and skill, but I say it's drive to win is now faltering. Expect Toronto's determination to win the day; the play is the Leafs! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-08-22 | Nationals +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
10* NATIONALS RUNLINE (BOB) Washington managed the 7-3 win here yesterday. I think the home side is overvalued here as well on Sunday, and I expect some regression here finally as well from Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval is 1-1 with a 1.29 ERA so far this season for LA, but I expect his sparkling numbers to take a hit today. At the very least, I expect Erick Fedde to match Sandoval inning for inning. Fedde is 2-2 with 22 K's and 10 walks over 25 frames of work. He's also 3-1 with a 3.61 ERA in his career against the Junior Circuit. This one will be decided late or in extra innings, the play is the visitors on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-07-22 | Rays v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -158 | 15 h 15 m | Show |
10* MARINERS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Seattle won't be lacking for motivation here after losing 9 of its last 10. That includes both games to open this series. First they lost 4-3, then 8-7 last night. The M's allowed 3 runs in the top of the 9th and scored just 1 themselves to lose by 1 run again. While I do think an outright is possible here, I'm going to lay what I think is a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in our back pocket. The Rays come in on the other end of the spectrum, primed for a letdown after 5 straight wins. Drew Rasmussen is 2-1 with a 3.13 ERA for the Rays, while Marco Gonzalez is 1-3 with a 4.05 ERA for the Mariners. These starters are essentially a "wash" in my eyes. In what should be another competitive affair, let's look for the desperate Mariners to find a way to deliver on the runline option tonight! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-07-22 | Avalanche v. Predators +1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -130 | 33 h 35 m | Show |
10* PREDATORS PUCKLINE (BOB) Down 0-2, the Predators will throw their "best shot" at Colorado today. Much like the Bruins did last night in their Game 3 win at home against Carolina, I expect a completely different effort here from Nashville with the shift in venue. Note as well that the Predators are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to revenge a one goal road loss against an opponent. Game 1 was a blowout, and quite frankly, Game 2 could have easily gone in Nashville's favor with a lucky bounce. Expect the Predators to once again keep Game 3 very competitive and because of that, the play here is to grab the home side on the puckline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-07-22 | Celtics +3 v. Bucks | Top | 101-103 | Win | 100 | 32 h 43 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (RED DRAGON) This series is all tied up. Milwaukee won Game 1 in a blowout, and Boston returned the favor in Game 2. With the shift in venue though, I'm expecting a much tighter battle tonight. Khris Middleton is out indefinitely for the Bucks, and that's going to have an effect over the long-term. The Celtics have the league's top defender and Jason Tatum is a handful. The C's defended Giannis well in Game 2 and I'm expecting a similar effort here as well. In a game that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points; the play is Boston! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-06-22 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring games of late, but I think that'll change today with these two "stud" starters facing off in Arizona. The D-Backs had yesterday off, while the Rockies enter off a high-scoring 9-7 win at home over Washington. But as I mentioned off the start, I expect these two starters to steal most of the headlines in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The Rockies go with Chad Kuhl, who is 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA. Merrill Kelly is 2-1 with a 1.27 ERA this season for the Diamondbacks. Interestingly, each has struggled against his respective opponent today in the past, but to that I say: that was then, and this is now! These two starters enter on top form and I expect that to help in driving this O/U number "under" the total once it's all said and done; the play is the "under!" AAA Sports | |||||||
05-06-22 | Heat v. 76ers OVER 210.5 | Top | 79-99 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 59 m | Show |
10* OVER (RED DRAGON) Joel Embiid is probably out again for this game for Philadelphia, but if the supporting cast doesn't stand up in Game 3 and make some sort of noise, then this series is going to be over quick, fast and in a hurry. Tyrese Maxey did look phenomenal in the Game 2 loss for Philly finishing with 34 points. James Harden will be leaned on here to produce though as he's averaged only 18 PPG through the first 2 games. Note though that Philly has also seen the total go "over" the number in 8 of its last 11 in trying to revenge a 15 points or greater road loss against an opponent. And for the Heat, they can smell the blood in the water. Even if Embiid does return, the big man will be far from 100% healthy. Miami's done well defensively over the first 2 games, but I'm expecting a more wide-open affair with the shift in venue. This number is just a little too low; the play is hte over! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-06-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -123 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
10* BRUINS (1ST RND. GOY) Just a plain old "common sense" play here with this one. The Bruins will be risking life and limb today to try and avoid the 0-3 hole. Carolina was great on the road this year, but even better at home. The Bruins are also 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to avenge 2 straight losses against an opponent. But, the Bruins have now lost 5 straight to Carolina after dropping all 3 regular season contests as well. Yes, Carolina will likely go on to win this series, but we can now expect Boston's best effor this evening. And in my estimation, that'll be more than enough to finally notch a victory; the play is the Bruins! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-05-22 | Stars v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
10* OVER (ASSASSIN) Calgary opened up this series with a tight 1-0 victory, but we're expecting a much higher-scoring contest in the second game. Note that the Stars have seen the total go OVER the number in 7 of their last 9 in trying to revenge a shutout road loss against an opponet. Including their final 2 regular season games, the Flames have now seen the total go "under" the number in 3 straight, which is significant to note here, as Calgary has seen the total go OVER in 10 of its last 13 after playing to 3 or more straight UNDERS in a row. The stats/trends and overall situation all point to a much faster-paced and wide-open affair in Game 2; the play is the over! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat -8 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show |
10* HEAT (ASSASSIN) Philadelphia looked lost without Joel Embiid in its opener vs. Miami and I have a hard time seeing the 76ers doing much better in Game 2. In fact, it was the Heat that really started off slowly in Game 1, but then they found their footing and confidently closed out with the 106-92 victory. I'm expecting an even more loip-sided destruction in Game 2. There's zero chemistry between James Harden and the rest of his teammates, while Jimmy Butler and Miami are poised for a much bigger and more dominating effort in Game 2. Miami won't be taking it easy. It's going to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish as they try and break the 76ers' collective will. I just can't see the visitors doing anything on either end of the court without Embiid in the line-up; so lay the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-03-22 | Stars +1.5 v. Flames | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
10* STARS PUCKLINE (1ST RND. GOY) Dallas won the first meeting with the Flames by a score of 4-3 in OVERTIME, which was in Calgary, but then the Stars dropped the other 2 matchups. Dallas has 4 players that each have at least 24 goals, led by Jason Robertson. Jake Oettinger finished 30-15-1 with a 2.52 GAA and I think he'll be an "X" factor for sure tonight in our success. The Flames are led by Johnny Gaudreau, who had 40 goals this year. Jacob Markstrom finished 37-15-9 with a 2.22 GAA for the Flames. This one will be a tight, competitive battle, so let's grab the visitors on the puckline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-03-22 | Giants +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -165 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
10* GIANTS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) In a game that I see being decided late, or even in extra innings, let's lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The Giants hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, who is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA, while the Dodgers counter with Julio Urias, who is 1-1 with a 2.50 ERA. The Giants won 10 of 19 games in the season series last year and 6 of 10 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers ended San Fran's season in a 5-game NL Division series, so it's payback time tonight. I like Rodon to, at the very least, match Urias inning for inning. Because of that, the play here today is the Giants on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
10* CELTICS (DESTRUCTION) I had a play on Boston in Game 1 and while that play came up short, I expect the home side to risk life and limb here to try and even up this series. Clearly, the last thing that Boston wants to do is head to Milwaukee in an 0-2 hole. The Bucks have been playing really well without star Khris Middleton since he went down with injury vs. the Bulls in the first game, but at some point they're going to have a small mental letdown in these playoffs, and I expect that moment to be this evening. "Rest" did lead to "rust" for Jayson Tatum and company after their 4 game sweep of the Brooklyn Nets. Milwaukee needed an extra game to take care of Chicago, and the Bucks just shot much more efficiently overall. Look for Boston to bounce back here in this super important Game 2 though, and for Milwaukee to be happy with the split that it's already earned; lay the points, the play is the Celtics! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-02-22 | Mavs v. Suns UNDER 215.5 | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) I'm expecting a hard-fought battle in the opener of this series, but a very defensive one overall. Both teams advanced by taking out their opponents in 6 games in the first round. Dallas was without Luka Doncic for 3 games vs. Utah, but the Mavs still won in 6. Dallas only averaged 108 PPG during the regular season, but was Top 3 on the defensive end. If the Mavericks are going to win this series, they'll need another huge performance from Doncic of course, but they'll also have to do what they do best, and that's slow things down and clamp down defensively with plenty of half and full court pressure throughout. Phoenix averaged 114.8 PPG, but in three games vs. the Mavs this year, the Suns played well defensively, going 3-0 by winning 105-98, 112-104 and 109-101. This is going to be a slower-paced defensive affair; the play is the under! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-02-22 | Rays v. A's +1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -130 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
10* A'S RUNLINE (GOM) Tampa Bay lost 2 of 3 to the Twins over the weekend and it's now scored 3 or fewer runs in 6 of its last 9 games. Oakland fans can empathize, as the A's are looking to rebound from 3 straight losses to the Guardians. They've now lost 6 of their last 8. Oakland took 3 of 4 from Tampa from April 11-14 and I expect the home side to find a way to deliver in the opener here as well. Tampa goes with Drew Rasmussen, who is 1-1 with a 3.50 ERA. He's off the best start of his career, going 6 shutout innings and striking out 9 in a win over the Mariners. Regression is now imminent after that gem in my opinion. The A's see Daulton Jefferies, who is 1-3 with 3.26 ERA, toe the slab. He gave up 5 runs over 4 innings in a loss to the Giants on Tuesday. I look for him to settle down here at home, where he posted a 2.90 ERA last year. In a contest that I see being decided late or even in extra's let's lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Oakland on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-02-22 | Bruins v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
10* UNDER (RED DRAGON) I think the opener of this series will be a very defensive one. Boston averages 3.09 GPG, which ranks just 15th. It's been better on the defensive end though, allowing only 2.66 GPG, which ranks 4th. Carolina averages 3.38 GPG, which ranks 9th, while conceding 2.44, which ranks 1st. Defense wins championships. That's true in all North American sports. These teams have the goaltending and defense to make a serious run at the cup. These teams are rested and ready for battle. Expect that to translate into an ultra-competitive and overall defensive affair in Game 1 of this series; the play is the under! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
10* GRIZZLIES (ASSASSIN) Two teams which had more difficulty than they likely expected in the first round, have advanced to the second round. Each looked great at times, and showed vulnerability in others. The Grizzlies aren't getting enough respect on their own floor is the bottom line for me here though. Golden State has been off since Wednesday. The Warriors went just 1-3 against the Grizzlies in the regular season. The quick turnaround works in the Grizzlies favor in my opinion. Look for Ja Morant to strike first over Stephen Curry and company; that said, grab the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-01-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (BEST OF BEST) Chicago comes in desperate for a win, as it's dropped 8 of its last 10. That includes both games to open up this series, falling 11-1 and 9-1. I'm expecting a much better effort here from the Cubs on Sunday. Milwaukee enters complacent after 5 straight wins. Corbin Burnes is 1-0 with a 1.75 ERA for the Brewers. Regression is imminent in my estimation though. Marcus Stroman is 0-3 with a 6.98 ERA so far for Chicago. I say that Stroman settles down here and gets back on track with his best effort of the season. Brewers' star Christian Yellich said it best himself after yesterday's win: "The thing about baseball is you have to keep grinding, keep putting in the work and keep trying to get better." Expect that logic to pay dividends for the visiting side today though. That said, let's grab the Cubs on the runline option! AAA Sports | |||||||
05-01-22 | Astros +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 38 m | Show | |
8* ASTROS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Toronto took the first game by a score of 2-1. I had the Astros on the runline in that one. Houston then responded with an 11-7 victory yesterday. I think the Astros are the sharp wager again here, but once again I'll recommend to play on the runline option. Houston goes with Framber Valdez, who is 1-1 with a 3.15 ERA, while Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman, who is 1-1 with a 2.19 ERA. Guasman faced the Astros once last year and allowed 3 earned runs and 6 hits with 2 walks over 4 1/3's frames of work and in 4 career outings against them he's just 1-3 with a 5.16 ERA. Valdez is just 1-1 with a 6.17 ERA in 2 career starts against Toronto. These pitchers are a "wash." Look for Houston's strong bullpen and hitting line-up to put it in another position to win this game outright; that said, the official play is to grab the Astros on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-30-22 | Cubs +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 1-9 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
10* CUBS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) Chicago looks to bounce back after yesterday's humbling 11-1 defeat. Note that the Cubs are 7-2 in their last 9 in trying to revenge an 8 runs or greater road loss against an opponent though. Milwaukee on the other hand is interestingly just 2-6 in its last 8 after a 10 runs or greater victory in its last outing. Chicago sends lefty Justin Steele to the hill, and he's 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA, while the home side counters with Eric Lauer, who is 1-0 with a 2.20 ERA. Lauer though is 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in 4 career outings against the Cubs, which includes 3 starts. I like the hungrier visiting side here, but for this price, I can't turn down the extra 1.5 runs in my back pocket; the play is Chicagao on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-30-22 | Braves v. Rangers +1.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show | |
9* RANGERS RUNLINE (DESTRUCTION) Bryce Elder is 1-2 with a 4.30 ERA for the Braves. He'll have hundreds of friends and family members in the stands today watching the Texas native. Dane Dunning is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA for the Rangers and he'll look to play spoiler on the rookie. Elder had a decent debut, but in 2 starts since he's struggled big time, not getting past the 5th inning, walking 11 and striking out 7 over a cominbed 9 innings of work. Dunning makes his 5th start of the year and he's held his opposition to 3 or fewer runs in each of those outings. Look for Dunning to go deeper than his counterpart and for the Rangers to make this one exciting; grab Texas on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-30-22 | Astros +1.5 v. Blue Jays | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show | |
8* ASTROS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) Houston's offense got back on track in a big way in yesterday's 11-7 victory. I think it can keep the foot on the gas here. But for this reasonable mid-sized price, I think we're getting unreal value on the visitors on the runline option. Luis Garcia is 1-0 with a 4.60 ERA with 14 K's over 12 innings for Houston. Garcia coughted up 5 runs off 5 hits with 6 K's over 6 innings in what turned out to be a no-decision vs. the Jays on Sunday. He's 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in 2 career outings vs. Toronto though. The home side counters with the erratic Jose Berrios, who is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA this season, but who is a sub-par 3-3 with a 5.46 ERA in six career starts vs. Houston. I think an outright victory is possible, but in the end let's take on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves +1.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
10* WOLVES (ASSASSIN) This has been a back-and-forth series. With their backs against the wall though, and especially because their playing at home, I look for the Wolves to dig deep here and to extend this series to a decisive Game 7. Clearly with a line like this, the oddsmakers feel these teams are pretty evenly matched. And they are. But Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 home games as an underdog in the +0.5 to +3.5 points range. Both teams are healthy and their strengths and weaknesses are well known. I think the "home floor" advantage proves to be the difference-maker tonight, so buckle up and get ready for our first Game 7 of the Playoffs; that said, grab the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-29-22 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
10* DIAMONDBACKS RUNLINE (ASSASSIN) I think that Madison Bumgarner and the Diamondbacks have much more than just a "punchers chance" in this one. In a game that I see being decided late or even in extras, I'm going to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. Madison Bumgarner is 0-1 with a 1.00 ERA for Arizona, while Adam Wainwright is 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA for the Cards. Arizona sneaks in under the radar here after winning 3 of its last 5. Bumgarner gave up just 1 run over 5 innings in his last outing. In his last start Wainwright was shelled for 4 runs off 8 hits over 5 innings. Recent form is a factor that's being overlooked here and we're going to take advantage. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Arizona on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-29-22 | Mariners v. Marlins +1.5 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
8* MARLINS RUNLINE (SPECIAL) In a game that I believe will be decided late, or even in extra innings, I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket. The Mariners hand the ball to Matt Brash, who is 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA. He's a rookie with 3 career appearances and who has yet to pitch past the 5th inning. The home side counters with Elieser Hernandez, who is 1-1 with a 5.87 ERA. He's never faced Seattle. I like Hernandez here though, who has a 6.05 ERA on the road, but a 3.60 ERA at home. The Marlins are riding a 5 game win streak, while the M's have lost 2 in a row. Great value here getting the extra run-and-a-half; the play is Miami on the runline! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-28-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
8* PELCIANS (SPECIAL) This has been a back and forth series. The Suns are still without Devin Booker and while the managed a victory in Game 5, I believe the Pelicans will answer here on their home floor. The stats back our hypothesis as well, as note that New Orleans is 8-2 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a loss against an opponent in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in. I say home floor DOES matter in Game 6; grab the points! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-28-22 | 76ers -1.5 v. Raptors | Top | 132-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
10* 76ers (ASSASSIN) I say Philadelphia and Doc Rivers finally get the "monkey" off their backs. Rivers has been involved with three different teams that have blown a 3-1 series lead. Philadelphia itself has just had issues with Toronto over the last five years and would love nothing more than to end this series here and now. I say that James Harden plays his best game of this series and I expect Philadelphia to run away with this one early, and never take the foot off the gas pedal. Toronto's never say die attitude runs out of gas tonight. Note as well that the 76ers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to revenge B2B SU/ATS losses against an opponent. Lay the points, the play is Philly! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-28-22 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -142 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
8* JAYS (SPECIAL) This is a 4 game series, and after taking the first two, the Jays fell 7-1 yesterday. Note though that Toronto is 7-2 in its last 9 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent that held it to one or fewer runs. Garrett Whitlock is 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA for the Red Sox, while Alex Mahoah is 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA for the Jays. Manoah gets the nod at home here for sure. Whitlocks numbers are unsustainable and major regression is in order here. Considering the above info, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger; the play is Toronto! AAA Sports | |||||||
04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
10* UNDER (ASSASSIN) These teams were really good defensively in the regular season, so it's a bit of a surprise that all four games so far have flown "over" the posted number. For a number of different reasons though, I think this Game 5 total is now a bit too high. Denver managed the 126-121 win as a 4.5-point underdog in Game 4 to keep its hopes alive. The Nuggets have a recent history of coming back in series when down 3-1 and after watching the Raptors win on the road last night to force a Game 6, Nikola Jokic and company will be confident here that they can do the same. To do that though, they'll have to play tight defense and once again run their offense through their reigning MVP. Golden State has actually seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the UNDER. AAA Sports |
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Ricky Tran | $868 |
Will Rogers | $491 |
William Burns | $415 |
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Ross Benjamin | $255 |
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ProSportsPicks | $107 |