Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-19-20 | Randa Markos v. Mackenzie Dern -159 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 55 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DERN Mackenzie Dern is the favorite here and for good reason. The 15th ranked contender in the Women’s Strawweight division is eight years younger and carries an 8-1 record. Her not ranked opponent, Rando Markos, is just 10-8-1 in her pro career. Dern began her career with seven consecutive victories, four of them coming via submission. Then she ran into Amanda Ribas last October and was beaten for the 1st time - via decision. But back in May, Dern returned to her submission ways using a kneebar to stop Hannah Cifers in the 1st round. Ironically, it is now Markos finding herself coming off a loss to Ribas. She lost to her back in March on a unanimous decision. One thing that sticks about Markos is how few finishes she has in her pro career. The number is just four and only one of those has been since 2014. Markos will look to take this fight to the ground, but that’s easier said than done against the superior striker Dern. Play on Mackenzie Dern AAA | |||||||
09-19-20 | Celtics v. Heat OVER 206 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 21 h 11 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Game 1 of this series went to overtime, so it ended up being an easy Over as the Heat won 117-114. You should note the Over was a winner by the end of regulation. Game 2, a 106-101 Heat victory, just stayed Under despite the losing side shooting 50% from the field. Boston also had a 13-point lead at halftime in Game 2. Blowing all of that in one quarter was a real shocker as Miami now is 10-1 SU/ATS in the playoffs, the only loss coming in overtime. The Heat’s trademark three-point shooting, which has been so big for them during this postseason run, was not that good in Game 2. They made only 32.6% from behind the arc. That they still won should frighten Celtics fans a bit. Down 0-2, you’ve got to figure Boston comes out strong here as they seek to avoid their first three-game losing streak in the bubble. Another loss would effectively end this series. But look for Miami’s three-point shooting, which is at 38.0% for the playoffs, to be better than it was in Game 2. The Over is 26-12 for the Heat off their previous 38 SU wins. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-19-20 | Rays -168 v. Orioles | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TB After sweeping a doubleheader on Thursday, the Rays won again Friday, this time 2-1. They shouldn’t have much of a problem continuing to win this weekend at Camden Yards. We like them on Saturday as they look to strengthen their grip on the AL East. Baltimore is heading in reverse right now. They’ve lost 10 of 12. Yesterday marked the 7th time that the Orioles were held to 1 run or less in that 2-10 stretch, which has effectively ended their season. A big reason why the Rays are winning this division is their 26-12 record against the other four teams. That includes five straight wins over Baltimore. Charlie Morton has yet to win for TB since returning from injury, but he’s only allowed six runs in 11 ⅔ innings. He holds a 3.38 ERA in six career starts vs. Baltimore. Orioles starter Lopez has a 2-2 team start record this year after a leading a shocking 14-1 win over Atlanta earlier in the week. But that was by far his best of the four starts and we see him regressing on Saturday. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
09-19-20 | Stars v. Lightning -147 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -147 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TB One of these teams being here is not a surprise. That would be Tampa Bay, who set numerous regular season records last season before infamously flaming out vs. Columbus in the first round of the playoffs. This season, the Lightning weren’t nearly as dominant (didn’t even finish first in the division), but have enjoyed a far more successful playoff run and that’s really all that matters. So far TB has lost only four games in the postseason, none of them consecutively, and they enter this Stanley Cup Finals as decided favorites over the Dallas Stars. The Stars being here is a surprise. They went through the top two teams in the Western Conference - Colorado and Vegas - and have been underdogs on the money line in each of their L12 games! They’ve definitely been “living dangerously” though with the last five wins all coming by a goal apiece. Several of those have required improbable comebacks, something we also saw in the 1st round series with Calgary as well as the round robin. While Dallas did win the two regular season meetings (Both in OT), the Lightning are pretty clearly the better team here. TB is 44-7 the L51 times it’s been off a game in which it scored 2 goals or less. They won 2-1 on Thursday in the close-out game vs. the Islanders. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
09-19-20 | Central Florida -7 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 73 h 53 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UCF UCF has won a total of 35 games the previous three seasons and lost only four. The Golden Knights enter 2020 ranked #14 and are probably the best “Group of Five” team in the country. They open with Georgia Tech, who upset Florida State last week. Picked to finish last in the ACC, the Yellow Jackets were 13-point underdogs in Tallahassee. So it was a big surprise to start their season. It was a weird game with a 1 hr 45 min weather delay, plus the Seminoles turned the ball over three times. UCF, a more veteran team that has put up 30+ points in every game but one the L3 years, will not be as giving. The Knights are also eager to earn their first ever win in Atlanta. The program is 0-3 all-time vs. Ga Tech, but the last meeting was in 2000. The UCF program is a lot different (better!) now and ready to make a statement vs. a P5 foe. The Yellow Jackets are just 1-8 ATS their L9 home games and 0-5 ATS off their L5 straight up victories. Play on UCF AAA | |||||||
09-19-20 | Navy +7 v. Tulane | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NAVY Navy had an absolutely disastrous showing in their season opener. They lost 55-3 to BYU! It was the worst loss in 13 years under Ken Niumatalolo and the head coach took all the blame. "Boy, that game was 1000 percent my fault," Niumatalolo said. "Obviously, we weren't prepared. One team was playing football. There's nobody to blame but myself. I erred on the side of trying to keep our guys safe (from COVID). I'd say it's the worst Navy football game we ever played." With two weeks to prepare, expect a MUCH better effort from the Midshipmen against Tulane. Against BYU, Navy ran for only 149 yards -- the 2nd lowest total ever for Niumatalolo in Annapolis and 211.5 yards below last year’s nation-leading average. Tulane played last week and only won by three (27-24) at South Alabama after initially trailing 24-6 in the third quarter. Now they turn around to face a complicated offense that’s going to produce a lot more than it did in the opener. The Green Wave were outgained last week in Mobile. They are breaking in a new QB and this is a lot of points to lay for a team whose only win over Navy in the L5 years came by a single points. The Midshipmen are 10-1-1 ATS following a loss by 20 or more points. Play on NAVY AAA | |||||||
09-18-20 | Nuggets v. Lakers OVER 211 | Top | 114-126 | Win | 100 | 33 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER Denver wasn’t the opponent the Lakers expected to face here. But the Nuggets “ruined” what could have been an all-LA Western Conference Finals by stunning the Clippers in Game 7 Tuesday, 104-89. That was a stunning result even for us, and we had the Nuggets plus the points. It marked the second consecutive series where Denver rallied back from a 3-1 deficit. In the entire history of the NBA Playoffs, no team before them had ever rallied back from multiple 3-1 series deficits in the same postseason. The Under was 5-0-2 in the Clippers-Nuggets series, marking a huge departure from Denver’s previous 15 games where the Over had gone 13-2. We like Game 1 of the WCF to revert back to Denver’s “old ways,” as this number is just too low. The prior three Lakers-Nuggets matchups, the last of which took place here in the bubble, all went Over. On August 10th, the Nuggets shot 58.4% while the Lakers shot 54.3% in a 124-121 LA victory. Denver shot 56.5 from behind the arc! Though they somehow held the Clippers under 100 points in three of the last four games, we feel that had more to do with poor shooting than Denver’s defense. The Lakers have shot better than 50% in six of their last eight games. In the playoffs, Lakers games have averaged 219.3 points/game. Denver games have averaged 215.1 and that number grows when factoring in the entire time spent in the bubble. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-18-20 | Braves -170 v. Mets | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ATLANTA After taking 2 of 3 from the Phillies, the Mets are 1.5 games back of the last playoff spot in the NL. The task of catching up gets significantly harder this weekend with the Braves coming to town. First place Atlanta is one of the best teams in the Senior Circuit and will be starting Max Fried on Friday. Fried has gone 6-0 in his nine starts. The team is 8-1. Fried has a 1.98 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. While the Braves just had a surprisingly disappointing series at Camden Yards, losing 2 of 3, their offense had been red hot prior to that and should have its way tonight with Mets starter Steven Matz. David Peterson was originally going to start here for the Mets, but an overnight change was made to Matz and we like it. Matz is 0-4 this year with a 9.00 ERA. The team has lost all five of his starts. In his last three turns, Matz has given up 19 runs in 11 ⅔ innings. The Mets bullpen has been working overtime of late, which means they may not be of much help either. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
09-17-20 | Bengals +6 v. Browns | Top | 30-35 | Win | 100 | 77 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CINCY For the 16th consecutive season, Cleveland is winless entering Week 2. Now there’s no shame in losing Baltimore as the Browns did last week. But opening your season with a 38-6 loss is never good. QB Mayfield is on his third head coach in as many seasons and didn’t look any better, completing just 21 of 39 passes for 189 yards. He threw an INT on the very first drive. The offseason being what it was, teams with new head coaches and lots of personnel turnover are at a disadvantage. Cleveland fits that bill. Now after facing perhaps the best team in the league last week, the Browns now get to face the team that had the worst record in the league last year. But Cincinnati was at least competitive in its Week 1 loss to the Chargers. In fact, they had a chance to win at the end. Joe Burrow, the league’s top draft choice, threw two costly interceptions for the Bengals. Yet they still led most of the game. Cincy beat Cleveland in Week 17 last year, with a different QB obviously. With Burrow and a healthy AJ Green, the Bengals are going to be a much tougher “out” in 2020. They are 8-3 ATS L11 times as a road underdog. Cleveland is untrustworthy in the role of favorite. They lost outright five times as chalk last year including to the Bengals. Take the points Thursday night. Play on CINCINNATI AAA | |||||||
09-17-20 | Lightning v. Islanders UNDER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 115 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Tampa Bay missed out on its first try to finish the Islanders, so here goes “round two.” It was a 2-1 win for the Islanders in Game 5, the kind of final score we’ve become much more accustomed to seeing from them this postseason. After all, NY came into the series having given up the fewest number of goals per game (1.94) the first two rounds. In the two games where they have faced elimination in the playoffs, the Islanders have given up a total of one goal. Remember they shut out the Flyers 4-0 in Game 7 of the semifinal round. The bad news though is they only got off 24 shots Tuesday in a game that went to two overtimes. That probably won’t cut it again. In four of the five games in this series, the Islanders have been held to two goals or fewer. They are 48-21-5 the L74 games as an underdog. The Lightning are 11-5-3 Under the L18 games overall. You can’t discount the injury to Brayden Point. TB’s two lowest scoring games of the series have come with him out of the lineup. His status is questionable for Game 6. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
09-16-20 | Twins v. White Sox -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the WHITE SOX This shaped up to be a very important series in the AL Central and so far the White Sox have stepped up to answer the challenge. They’ve beaten Minnesota each of the last two nights, 3-1 and 6-2. They now lead the Twins by three games. We like the division leaders to make it three in a row tonight. They’ve got arguably their top pitcher going in Lucas Giolito. The team is 7-3 so far when he starts including 5-0 the last 5 times. One of those was a no-hitter. Giolito hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in any of his last 5 starts and has a 1.03 WHIP for the year. The White Sox are the hottest team in baseball right now as they have won six straight. They are 22-5 their last 27 games and 14-1 L15 at home. They have arguably the best offense in the whole American League. Minnesota has a losing road record and it’s tough to like their chances with Odorizzi starting as he has a 8.10 ERA and 1.60 WHIP his previous three turns and this will be his first time starting since August 21st. A tough spot to return. Play on WHITE SOX AAA | |||||||
09-16-20 | Braves -164 v. Orioles | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -164 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA Atlanta is still comfortably ahead in the NL East and thus looking like a pretty safe bet to make the postseason. But they suffered an embarrassing 14-1 defeat Monday at the hands of Baltimore. Fortunately, that looks like it was a total anomaly as last night the Braves got back on track with a 4-1 win at Camden Yards. The Orioles have scored 1 run or less in five of the last six games, so don’t go getting fooled by that 14 run effort two days ago. As for the Braves offense, it really got a “shot in the arm” when manager Brian Snitker reshuffled the batting order by stacking it at the top. But all eyes will be on the pitching mound tonight as Cole Hamels makes his 2020 season debut. The starting rotation has been Atlanta’s weakness the last two weeks due to a multitude of injuries. Hamels should do fine against a struggling Baltimore lineup. As for Orioles starter Keegan Akin, he’s facing a lineup that has scored 70 runs its last 10 games. The Braves are 7-2 this season as road favorites of -125 to -175 and 33-12 L45 in that role. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
09-16-20 | Mets -130 v. Phillies | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on NY METS This is a critically important game for the Mets season. While one of only seven National League teams to have scored more runs than they’ve allowed (they share the same +1 run diff as the Phillies), New York is six games below .500 and 2.5 gms out of the playoffs after losing 4-1 to the Phillies last night. But they’ve got the proverbial “ace in the hole” working Wednesday in Jacob deGrom, whose last two starts have produced a 14-1 win and 18-1 win. That’s a combined 32-2 score and the 14-1 win came against Philly! For the year, deGrom has a 1.67 ERA and 0.87 WHIP. The Mets are 7-2 in his 9 starts. deGrom has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start. The Mets are 0-3 since deGrom last started a game and just 14-24 in all non-deGrom starts. But this is a real difference maker as deGrom is also 8-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 16 career starts for the Phillies. The home team’s lineup is severely depleted right now with Rhys Hoskins, Jay Bruce and J.T. Realmuto all M.I.A. The remainder of the Phillies lineup just isn’t going to get it done. The Mets had their chances last night at the plate (11 hits), but were 0 for 6 when runners were in scoring position. Look for that to turn around tonight and deGrom takes care of the rest. Play on NY METS AAA | |||||||
09-15-20 | Nuggets +7.5 v. Clippers | Top | 104-89 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DENVER Denver has consistently been underpriced in this series, so why should we stop now? We had the Nuggets in their upsets in Games 2 & 6 as well as their ATS win in Game 3. This is the consecutive series where they’ve rallied from a 3-1 deficit. We all remember what happened against Utah in Game 7. They are now 6-1 ATS when trailing in a series this postseason. Each of the last two games have seen them stage shocking comebacks from double digit deficits. While one could take this as a sign of the Clippers’ superiority and “falling asleep at the wheel,” we see it as “blown opportunities.” Los Angeles has just one double digit win in the series; it came in Game 1 when they had an edge in rest over the Nuggets. Since rest time has been equal, the Nuggets are 4-1 ATS. They outscored the Clippers 64-35 in the second half of Game 6. A troubling sign for LA is that they’ve shot better than 42% from the floor just once in the past five games. There is a lot of pressure on the Clippers in this Game 7. Denver is playing with “house money.” Even if they can’t make history and be the first team to win consecutive series in which they were down 3 games to 1, the Nuggets will keep this one close. Play on DENVER AAA | |||||||
09-15-20 | A's v. Rockies UNDER 12 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Under is not something you normally think about taking at Coors Field. But with the Rockies’ recent offensive struggles and the A’s being in a bit of bind, Under in the route we’re going in tonight’s series opener. Colorado has topped five runs only one time in its last six games. That was here at home, but so were the last two games which saw them score just five runs total. Tonight they are facing a red hot pitcher in Sean Manaea, who’s won his last four starts while posting a 1.61 ERA. Manaea has issued only one walk during that time and has allowed only six runs in 22 ⅓ (two runs were unearned). But the A’s are likely going to have to ride Manaea in this one after playing 10 games in 7 days including a doubleheader vs. Seattle yesterday. Injuries have also hit the everyday lineup hard as 3B Chapman’s season is over and OF Piscotty sprained his knee yesterday. The Under is 22-5-1 in the A’s last 28 road games with a total of 11.0 or higher. Rockies starter Senzatela actually has pretty good numbers here at home and should keep Oakland in check. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
09-15-20 | Islanders +1.5 v. Lightning | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the ISLANDERS +1.5 The Islanders are just trying to stay alive here, so we’ll take them +1.5 on the puck line. Obviously, this Eastern Conference Final did not get off to a good start for the Isles. They lost Game 1 by a score of 8-2. But then they only lost by a goal in Game 2 (2-1) and won Game 3, 5-3. But Game 4 was another disappointment as they lost 4-1. For 15 whole seconds NY did have the lead, but Tampa Bay quickly tied it and then took the lead for good 12 seconds later. So the game really changed in less than 30 seconds. What you have to remember is that the Islanders had been #1 in the playoffs in goals allowed (1.94 per game) coming into this series. Tampa Bay has proven rather difficult to slow down, but we’re counting on the Islanders busting out their old defensive “tricks” here in Game 5. They’ve only faced elimination one time this postseason and it was Game 7 against the Flyers, whom they shutout and held to just 16 shots. Lightning star Brayden Point is questionable here after taking a shot against the boards in the last game. He missed the second half of the third period. Islanders are 5-2 after scoring 2 goals or less the previous game. Play on ISLANDERS +1.5 AAA | |||||||
09-15-20 | Heat +1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 117-114 | Win | 100 | 33 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI After knocking off the top two seeds in the East, Miami and Boston meet in the Conference Finals. Miami ousted top seeded Milwaukee in five games. Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo hampered, that was still a really impressive effort from the Heat, who are now 8-1 SU and ATS this postseason. Boston needed seven games to eliminate Toronto, but was pretty clearly the better team in that series. Still, the extra games played is definitely a disadvantage for a thin lineup that’s still without Gordon Hayward. Bam Adebayo is the name to watch for the Heat as he led the way with 21 points and 12 rebounds in a 112-106 win when these teams faced off on August 4th. Boston defended the interior well against Toronto, particularly Daniel Theiss, but they clearly had issues against Adebayo last month. The Celtics shot just 43.5% in that game and were 10 of 33 from three-point range. Miami’s 3-point shooting has been a major weapon so far in the playoffs as they are at 38%, which is the highest percentage among the four likely conference finalists. Boston is just 13th in three-point shooting among the 16 playoff teams. Remember that the Heat have not been beaten in regulation since the playoffs began. Boston did not top 103 points in regulation in five of its last six games vs. Toronto. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
09-15-20 | Nationals v. Rays -164 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY Though they continue to hold serve in the AL East, Tampa Bay has lost four of six - all to last place teams. They could only manage a split of a four-game set with the sorry Red Sox over the weekend and before that lost both games to the Nationals. Tuesday sees them going for revenge against last year’s World Series champs. Obviously, the vibe in the Nation’s Capital right now is much different than it was at this time last year. The Nationals got off to a slow start and never recovered, meaning they won’t even get a chance to defend last year’s WS crown. Their weekend consisted of losing three of four to the Braves. Anibal Sanchez will be on the mound tonight and the Nats have lost his last four road starts. Despite a nice effort last week against the Rays, he still has a 6.34 ERA and 1.72 WHIP overall. Tampa Bay goes the “opener” route on Tuesday with John Curtiss. While it’ll be just his 2nd time “opening,” Curtiss has made 13 total appearances this year including one scoreless inning last week vs. the Nationals, who are 1-6 their L7 games at Tropicana Field. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
09-14-20 | Titans v. Broncos OVER 40.5 | Top | 16-14 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Lots of line movement here as Tennessee has been bet to the role of favorite after opening as a 2-point dog. The total, which is what we’re playing, has also been on the move. It’s down to pretty low 40.5 as of press time, which would be the second lowest O/U on the board for NFL Week 1 (only Jets-Bills lower). Injuries have also become a factor in handicapping this nightcap of the Monday Night Football doubleheader. The Titans are going to be without three defensive starters: Adoree Jackson, Vic Beasley and Derrick Roberson. The Broncos have one major absence on the defensive side of the ball themselves, that being Von Miller, who has suffered a serious ankle injury. All those missing defensive players have us taking the Over here. Denver’s offense is going to be a lot better this year. The front office went out and made sure to surround QB Drew Lock with plenty of skill position talent. Let’s not forget Tennessee made the AFC Title Game in January on the back of RB Derrick Henry, who was the NFL’s rushing leader. They scored 20 or more points in their final 10 games last year. The Over is 4-0 the Titans L4 MNF appearances and 6-1 the L7 times they have been a favorite. The Over is also 8-2 Denver’s L10 season openers. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-14-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -168 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -168 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VEGAS Vegas has really put itself behind the 8-ball, now needing to win three straight in order to make the Stanley Cup Finals. They have generally outplayed the Stars in this Western Conference Finals. However, they can’t seem to score when necessary. They’ve outshot Dallas for the series, including 73-43 the L2 games! But Stars goalie Anton Khudobin has picked the right time to play the best hockey of his career, posting a .944 save percentage for the series. Dallas is clearly playing “above its head” this postseason. It’s not just Khudobin either. The team has more 5+ goal games in the bubble than they did the entire regular season! The Golden Knights have done a solid job when it comes to limiting goals; they’ve given up just six in the four games. Now it’s time for Khudobin to regress, assuming Vegas can continue to pepper him with shots. They average 36.2 shots/game in the playoffs while allowing only 24.2. Dallas has been outshot and outscored in the postseason! This is just the 2nd time Vegas has lost two in a row since the restart. The 1st saw them bounce back to post a shutout in Game 7 vs. Vancouver when the season was on the line. Play on VEGAS AAA | |||||||
09-14-20 | Braves -168 v. Orioles | Top | 1-14 | Loss | -168 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ATLANTA Atlanta continues to pace the NL East, a division which they’ve led most of the way. They won yesterday, for the first time as a road underdog of +125 to +175 (0-7 previously), beating Max Scherzer and Washington 8-4. That was the Braves’ 4th win in 5 games, a stretch which began with a 29-9 victory over Miami. Tonight they’re in Baltimore to face an Orioles team that had a BAD weekend. The O’s got swept in New York, pretty much ending any hope that they could make a Cinderella run to the postseason. They scored a grand total of three runs in the four-game series, so Atlanta’s Touki Toussant has to like his chances in tonight’s start. Touissant should aim to hold Baltimore to three runs or fewer as the Orioles are 0-16 this year when that happens. Looking at Atlanta’s offense, the 4-1 stretch coincides with manager Brian Snitker deciding to “load up” the top of his batting order with Acuna Jr, Freeman & Ozuna in the top three spots. The Braves have scored 7 or more runs four times since that change and 53 runs total. Orioles starter Jorge Lopez has made only three starts in 2020 and none have been quality. He gave up five runs in the last one. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
09-14-20 | Chelsea -154 v. Brighton & Hove Albion | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHELSEA Chelsea went on a spending spree during the offseason, in the hopes they can overtake Liverpool and Man City at the top of the Premier League table. Despite all the new talent, the Blues still have aways to go after last season’s fourth place finish with a +15 goal differential. But they should open with an easy win here against Brighton, a side whose mid-table finish last campaign pretty much represents their “ceiling.” While not winning the FA Cup may have been a disappointment for Chelsea, reaching the final showed enough positives that we’re confident they get the job done in the 2020-21 opener. In our opinion, Brighton is getting a BIT too much respect here. Maybe that’s due to playing Chelsea to a 1-1 draw in preseason or the fact Christian Pulisic is likely absent from the pitch Monday. But having brought in so many world-class players, anything less than a win here for Chelsea will be viewed as a massive failure. An early-season cheap price is something that should be taken advantage of, without question. Play on CHELSEA AAA | |||||||
09-13-20 | Cowboys -3 v. Rams | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -101 | 125 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on DALLAS (MONEY LINE) - only needs to win straight up For a team that finished 8-8, the Cowboys were pretty impressive last season. They had the league’s top ranked offense and +113 point differential. That they couldn’t even make the playoffs was an indictment on their coaching and ability to win close games. The coaching issue was rectified by replacing Jason Garrett with Mike McCarthy. A team’s record in close games can vary wildly. Just look at Dallas each of the last two years. In 2018, they were 10-4 SU in games decided by eight points or less. Last year, that record fell to 1-6! The core of that top-ranked offense is not only back, but additional pieces were added. QB Prescott should have a big season. As for the Rams, they are 1-8-1 ATS L10 as a home dog. The myth of the home dog in primetime has largely been debunked anyway. The Rams fell to 9-7 in 2019, a decline of four wins from the previous year. Despite having a better record than Dallas, their point differential was only +30. Unlike the Cowboys, the Rams roster looks a lot weaker this year and another decline in wins is likely. Look for Dallas to win going away. Play on DALLAS AAA | |||||||
09-13-20 | Bucs v. Saints OVER 49 | Top | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 121 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER This is probably the most anticipated game of the weekend as Tom Brady and the new look Bucs head into New Orleans to take on the always tough Saints. It’s the first time Brady will be an underdog in his last 75 regular season starts. Brady has been outstanding as an underdog (37-16-1 ATS) In his career and will obviously be motivated. He has much better weapons at his disposal here in Tampa than he did last year in New England. The Saints are the Saints. They are always going to score plenty. While the Bucs defense was actually underrated in terms of yards and stopping the run last year, the Over still went 12-4 in their games. In his last two home games vs. Tampa Bay, Drew Brees has completed over 80% of his passes with five touchdowns and zero interceptions. Over is 4-1 L5 meetings including 2-0 last year. Over is 6-0 in the Saints past six season openers. Over is 10-1 TB’s L11 conference games and 5-0 L5 times as a road underdog. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-13-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +8.5 | Top | 98-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver has already come back from one 3-1 series deficit (1st round vs. Utah). Can they do it again? Not sure (honestly seems doubtful), but a big difference between this and the Jazz series is that Denver is getting a lot of points on a game by game basis. Taking them here in Game 6, we don’t need a SU win to cash a winning ticket. Earlier in this series, the Nuggets did cover the spread without winning (Game 3). Game 5 saw them come back from a double digit deficit to stun the Clippers 111-105. We don’t see the Nuggets falling behind like that again. The Clippers have shot pretty poorly in three of the five games so far. When trailing in a playoff series, Denver is 8-1 ATS including 5-1 this year. Over the course of the five games, LA is only outscoring Denver by 5 PPG. Jokic, Murray and Porter all had nice performances in Game 5, which is worrisome for the Clippers. So was the play of their bench. Take the points here. Play on DENVER AAA | |||||||
09-13-20 | Eagles -6 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PHI Washington is a team without a nickname and also without much direction. The front office, as always, is a mess. Ron Rivera has been chosen to lead this sinking ship and it's probably going to take a while until “Riverboat Ron '' gets this one floating again. Second year QB Dwayne Haskins did not have a particularly good rookie season. The Football Team won just three games in 2019, none of them against the division. In fact, they are 0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS the past six meetings with the Eagles. The Washington defense allowed points on more than 60% of the possessions it faced last year. There will be no home field edge here as no fans will be present. As we heard in the Thursday night game, even a reduced capacity can be noisy. It’s not just Philly that Washington struggles against. They have lost their last 10 NFC East games, covering the number just one time. No clue why this number has been bet down (as of Saturday). The Eagles own Washington and that figures to be the case again here. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA | |||||||
09-13-20 | Braves v. Nationals -175 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -175 | 13 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on WASHINGTON At this time last year, Washington was getting ready to embark on a run that would end with them winning the World Series. Barring a miracle, there will be no repeat of that run here in 2020. The Nationals currently find themselves in last place with a 17-27 record in the NL East. They have next to no shot of even making the playoffs, despite the fact eight teams will get in. Yesterday, they lost 2-1 to the team that occupies first place in the division, Atlanta. While this would normally be a mismatch in the Braves favor, today is no normal day as Max Scherzer goes for the Nationals. Scherzer is still having a solid year with a 6-3 TSR and 3.40 ERA. That’s why Washington is favored Sunday. Scherzer threw seven scoreless innings in his last start. Kyle Wright has an 8.05 and 2.211 WHIP in five starts for the Braves. He’s 0-4. Atlanta is also 0-7 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. When they get to the postseason, the Braves could be in trouble with their starting rotation decimated by injuries. They’re in trouble today as well. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
09-12-20 | Golden Knights -160 v. Stars | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VEGAS Those pesky Stars keep getting it done as they now lead the Western Conference Finals 2-1. After they and Vegas exchanged shutouts in the first two games, Game 3 went to overtime with Dallas winning 3-2. That made us happy as we had the Stars +1.5. So we didn’t even need to sweat out OT! But we can’t sugarcoat the fact that the Golden Knights outshot them 40-23. Outshooting the opposition is something Vegas has consistently done in the postseason. They are averaging 36.3 shots/game of their own while only allowing 24.6 per game. Those kinds of numbers virtually guarantee you’ll be successful on a consistent basis. The Knights have not lost more than two straight here in the bubble. The only other time they lost back to back games was the last series vs. Vancouver and they responded with a 3-0 shutout. The Golden Knights, who are 11-2 L13 after scoring 2 goals or less, are a strong play for us here. Play on VEGAS AAA | |||||||
09-12-20 | Rockets +6.5 v. Lakers | Top | 96-119 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON Houston is playing for its season Saturday night. They trail the Lakers 3-1 and were thoroughly outplayed in Game 4, losing 110-100. Really, it wasn’t even as close as the final score would indicate as the Rockets trailed by as many as 23 in the fourth quarter. In many ways, it was the polar opposite of both Games 2 and 3 when they played the Lakers tough, only to come up just shy on the scoreboard. While the Rockets faced a large early deficit in Game 2, they came back and took the lead going into the fourth quarter. Game 3 saw them have the lead at halftime. Both those games saw the Lakers shoot the lights out. In Game 4, it was a massive edge in the paint and on second-chance points for LA. On the bright side for Houston, Russell Westbrook finally “woke up” with a 25-point effort Thursday. Faced with the prospect of “win or go home,” we figure we’ll be getting the Rockets’ best effort here, which certainly wasn’t the case in any of the last three games. It may not completely resemble Game 1 (which they won 112-97), but they’ll at least stay within the number as James Harden will certainly shoot better than 2 for 11 in this game. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
09-12-20 | Duke v. Notre Dame -19.5 | Top | 13-27 | Loss | -109 | 67 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on NOTRE DAME Notre Dame is part of the ACC for the 2020 season and comes in ranked #10 in the country. The only ACC team ranked higher is #1 Clemson. The Fighting Irish’s season begins at home in South Bend vs. Duke. This first “conference” challenge should be an easy one for Brian Kelly’s team, who won 11 games last season. Duke was just 5-7 in 2019. Though this is the first time (and probably last?) the schools will meet as “conference opponents,” they are familiar with one another. Last year, the Irish went into Durham and killed the Blue Devils 38-7 as seven-point favorites as QB Book threw four touchdown passes. Book, who finished with a 38-6 TD-INT ratio, is back to lead the Irish offense again this season. About 16,000 fans will be present Saturday afternoon in South Bend, so there is still a home field edge for a ND team that is 13-0 on this field the L2 years. Duke’s new starting QB is Chase Brice, a grad transfer from Clemson that hasn’t gotten much practice time with his new team due to the unusual summer. Center Jack Wohlabaugh just tore a knee ligament on Sept 1, complicating matters even further. Don’t hesitate to lay this number as the Fighting Irish should win big. Play on NOTRE DAME AAA | |||||||
09-12-20 | Leeds United v. Liverpool OVER 3 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the OVER If it feels like the 2019-20 Premier League season just ended, well, that’s because it did on July 26th. The incredibly quick turnaround between campaigns is obviously due to COVID-19, but you can bet all the clubs are eager to return to the pitch, starting Saturday. Liverpool is off a historic season where it set a number of EPL records, including earliest title win (with seven matches to spare). They also won 18 in a row (before being defeated by Watford on Feb 29), 25 straight at home and at one point had a 25-point lead in the table. Being that it was their first domestic title in 30 years, Liverpool is far from assured of finishing first again. They made almost no offseason additions. The same cannot be said for Leeds United, who added Rodrigo to its ranks via a record setting deal. Of course, Leeds has a long way to go to catching the likes of Liverpool as they were just promoted (after a 16-year Premier League absence) due to winning last season’s Championship. What we think you can expect here is a relatively high-scoring affair, or at least one that goes Over the total. Liverpool has kept just one clean sheet in its last nine affairs, which includes the preseason. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-12-20 | Syracuse +23 v. North Carolina | Top | 6-31 | Loss | -104 | 65 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SYRACUSE North Carolina went 7-6 straight up last season, a vast improvement on their 2-9 SU record the year before. The improvement was due to a combination of better luck and the return of Mack Brown as head coach. Syracuse, meanwhile, finished second to last in the Atlantic Division last year with a 5-7 overall record (2-6 in ACC). The Orange had won 10 games in 2018, so it was very much the reverse trend of what we saw in Chapel Hill. The ACC is using a “division-less” format for the 2020 season and adds Notre Dame to the mix. UNC is the third highest ranked team, behind only Clemson and the Irish. Though not much is expected from Dino Babers’ crew, don’t be surprised if they give UNC a run for its money in this season opener. Two years ago, the Orange won 40-38 in a double overtime game at the Carrier Dome. There is some question over who will be carrying the ball for Syracuse as the top two running backs on the depth chart both reportedly have opted out. But North Carolina had to deal with a five-day break in practice a couple weeks ago due to COVID-19. Syracuse has covered 11 of the last 16 times it has been a road underdog of more than three touchdowns. Play on SYRACUSE AAA | |||||||
09-12-20 | UL-Lafayette v. Iowa State -11 | Top | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 65 h 44 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on IOWA STATE Iowa State has delivered three straight winning seasons for Matt Campbelll. This is not exactly a program accustomed to that kind of “success.” The previous four years, including Campbell’s first on the job, all saw the Cyclones win three or fewer games. But now they’ve firmly established themselves as part of the Big XII’s upper tier. They open the season with Louisiana Lafayette, who won 11 games in 2019. Of course, playing in the Sun Belt is a lot different than the Big XII. The Ragin Cajuns probably aren’t going to end up with that kind of record in 2020, although they are the most experienced team in their league and a threat to repeat as Western Division Champs. But beating Iowa State seems out of the question as the Cyclones have even better offensive talent with the returning QB Purdy (3,982 yds in ‘19) and RB Hall (averaged 100+ YPG L8 wks). They enter the year ranked #23, but we feel they are even better than that. There will be 25,000 fans present in Ames Saturday, giving ISU some semblance of “home field advantage.” We think the spread for this game “speaks volumes” as oddsmakers are saying a Louisiana team no one is taking lightly will still get beaten by double digits. We agree. Play on IOWA STATE AAA | |||||||
09-11-20 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 204.5 | Top | 92-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It’s all tied up 3-3 between Boston and Toronto. The Raptors have never led in the series, coming back from 2-0 and 3-2. A case could be made that the series really hasn’t been that “close” seeing as two of the three Celtics wins were blowouts and all three Raptors wins have been close. With the exception of Game 3, which they won at the buzzer, Toronto has really struggled with its shooting against the Boston defense. Five of the six games have seen them shoot 43.6% or worse. The most points they’ve been able to muster in regulation is 104. Obviously, the final score of Game 6 is misleading since it went into double overtime. Now Boston has been held to 103 points or less (in regulation) in four of the six games. The Under is 8-2 in Boston games the L2 rounds and would be 6-0 in this series, if not for overtime in Game 6. The Under is 13-5 in all Toronto games since the restart. It’s Game 7, so the defensive intensity will be turned up to “10.” Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
09-11-20 | Lightning -151 v. Islanders | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -151 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY The Lightning are up 2-0 on the Islanders and can take a commanding 3-0 series lead with a win tonight. The Game 1 win was as easy as it gets as the Lightning scored eight goals. Keep in mind the strength of this Islanders team is its defense as they’d allowed a league low 1.94 goals/game in the playoffs before this series started. Game 2 was tighter, as well as a lot lower-scoring, but the Lightning still won 2-1. That seems like bad news for the Islanders as the low-scoring games are the ones they probably need to “steal” to have any shot in this series. It’s unlikely that they’ll contain the TB offensive onslaught again. Quietly, the Lightning are very hot. They have lost just three times in the bubble. They’ve won six in a row and 9 of 10. You have to remember that the Islanders were originally seeded 7th in the East for this Tournament. They had a negative scoring differential when play was paused back in March. While they looked great against the Capitals and Flyers, this mountain may simply be too tall to climb. Tampa Bay is 44-8 its last 52 tries after scoring two goals or less the previous game. Play on TAMPA BAY AAA | |||||||
09-10-20 | Dodgers -200 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -200 | 14 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 6* on LOS ANGELES The Dodgers beat the Dbax again yesterday, 6-4, the second time in a row they needed extra innings to do so. It was the seventh straight time the first place team in the NL West beat the last place team. It was also Arizona’s fifth loss in a row. Speaking of five losses in a row, Madison Bumgarner has an 0-5 team start record this year for the Dbax and has allowed a frightening nine home runs. The Dodgers, who are by far and away the best team this year, have won 8 of the last 10. Not that they need any more advantages, but Dustin May has a 6-2 TSR this season and a 2.88 ERA. He’s a much better pitcher than Bumgarner is right now. Also the Dodgers are obviously a MUCH better team than the Dbax, who have lost 18 of their past 20 games! This is a mismatch in every sense of the word. The Dodgers are 7-0 in Thursday games this season. Play on LA Dodgers AAA | |||||||
09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs -9 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 53 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on KANSAS CITY This is a rematch from the Divisional Round of the playoffs. That game started great for the Texans. They were up 24-0 early in the second quarter. But from that point forward, the Chiefs outscored them 51-7 and went on to win the franchise’s 2nd Super Bowl. As the defending Super Bowl Champion, the Chiefs open the season at home on Thursday night. Save for last year, this has been the practice going back to 2004. The SB Champ has lost only two of the 15 times it has played on Opening Night. One of the losses was a weak Giants team (game was actually played on Weds due to Democratic National Convention). The other was three years ago when the Patriots lost … to the Chiefs. Not even spotting the Texans 24 points could prevent the Chiefs from winning by double digits in January. Houston figures to be weaker in 2020 as they lost Pro Bowl wideout DeShaun Watson, not to mention they were an extremely lucky 10-win team a year ago. They led at halftime in only six of their games and just two of their wins were by more than eight points. They went 5-1 SU in games decided by a field goal or less. Kansas City has covered its last eight games and should have its way with a weaker version of a team they beat by 17 points in the playoffs. Play on KANSAS CITY AAA | |||||||
09-10-20 | Golden Knights v. Stars +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
This is a play on DALLAS +1.5 Dallas posted a shutout in Game 1 (1-0) and then Vegas returned the favor in Game 2, winning 3-0. It’s pretty clear that the level of scoring we’ve seen from both sides in the bubble appears ready to subside. While the Stars have scored just once in the two games, the Golden Knights have been blanked in five of the six periods as well. They didn’t score until the 2nd period of Game 2. While Vegas has posted two shutouts in the last four games, they’ve also been shutout themselves in the other two. Both teams have actually lost three of five. We give Dallas just as much of a shot at winning Game 3 as Vegas. While they’d be a solid bet here on the moneyline, the puck line is the better route in what likely promises to be a low-scoring game. Play DALLAS +1.5 AAA | |||||||
09-10-20 | UAB v. Miami-FL -13.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 53 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI UAB and Miami are set to hook it up Thursday night in Coral Gables. This game was originally set for next Thursday, but was bumped up a week due to COVID-19 wreaking havoc on all the schedules. UAB was a 9-win team a year ago and made the C-USA Championship Game. But consider for a moment the fact the Blazers beat only ONE FBS team with a winning record. Now had they faced Miami, that number wouldn’t have changed as the Hurricanes are off a tremendously disappointing 6-7 season under Manny Diaz that ended with an embarrassing 14-0 shutout by La Tech in the Independence Bowl. This year, “The U” promises to be a whole lot better though. D’Eriq King has transferred in to play quarterback. Two years ago, when he was with Houston, King led the entire FBS with 50 touchdown passes. The defense is going to be outstanding. UAB already played a game, but it was an unimpressive 45-35 win over Central Arkansas where they turned the ball over three times. If they gave up that many points to a FCS opponent, imagine how much they’ll give up here. UAB has covered just 1 of the previous 5 times it has been a road underdog. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
09-10-20 | Lakers v. Rockets +5 | Top | 110-100 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
This is a 10* on HOUSTON A second half surge propelled the Lakers to a 112-102 win and cover in Game 3. Now they’ll look to go up 3-1 in the best of seven series against the Rockets. Obviously, Houston is in a virtual must win. We’ll take the points with them as they’ve been very close each of the last two games. Game 2 saw them erase all of an early double digit deficit to go up heading into the 4th quarter. This despite the Lakers shooting better 56% from the field, for the entire game! Game 3 saw the Rockets take the lead into halftime. But again, hot shooting from the Lakers (55.1 FG%) was too much to overcome. The fact that Los Angeles has shot better than 55% the L2 games, yet trailed and was tied going into the 4th quarter is not a good sign, in our opinion. Inevitably, their shooting will cool off. Meanwhile, the Rockets are due to heat up. This is the first time they’ve trailed in a series this postseason. The Lakers are only 5-10-1 ATS in the bubble and this is the first time they’ve covered two in a row. They are 3-7 ATS off their last 10 SU wins. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
09-09-20 | Islanders v. Lightning -164 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
This is an 8* on TAMPA BAY The Lightning exploded for 8 goals in Game 1, burying the Islanders in the process. Scoring 8 goals in one game is always going to be impressive, but when you do it against a team that was allowing just 1.94 goals/game since the restart, well, that’s downright remarkable. Don’t look for the Lightning to score 8 times again, but they will win Game 2 against an Islanders team that has to be absolutely shell-shocked. A huge advantage the Lightning had coming into the series is that they had a full week off while New York had just been taken seven games by the Flyers and had only one day off between series. Tampa Bay has now won five straight as well as eight of its last nine. They’ve allowed just six goals in the previous four wins. This is a team on a mission following last year’s humiliating playoff exit. The Islanders have won just 4 of the last 17 times they’ve been an underdog and just 1 of the last 6 times they’ve played on one days rest. Tampa Bay is 41-12 the L53 after allowing 2 or less goals the previous game. Play on TAMPA BAY. AAA | |||||||
09-09-20 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the UNDER The Lightning exploded for 8 goals in Game 1, burying the Islanders in the process. Scoring 8 goals in one game is always going to be impressive, but when you do it against a team that was allowing just 1.94 goals/game since the restart, well, that’s downright remarkable. Obviously, the Lightning aren’t scoring 8 goals again in Game 2. Nor should they come close to that number. This is an Islanders team that kept the Flyers to 16 shots in Game 7 and kept the Capitals to two goals or less in four of the five games in the Opening Round. There were only three games that went Over for the Lightning in the first two rounds. They have allowed just six goals in the last four games. The Under is 7-3 the last 10 times the Islanders have been off a loss by 3 or more goals. The Under is 8-2 for the Lightning the last 10 times they have been off a game where they scored 5 or more goals. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
09-09-20 | Rockies v. Padres OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Colorado is having all sorts of trouble with San Diego this year. The last four times these NL West rivals have met, it has been the Padres coming out on top. The Rockies have managed a grand total of seven runs in those four losses, five of those coming last night. Meanwhile, SD has twice scored double digit runs on Rockies pitching, including 14 yesterday. The Padres continue to pace all of MLB with 253 runs scored in 44 games. They should finish above their 5.7 runs/game average again tonight as they face Senzatela, who is 6-2 Over in his eight starts for the Rockies. Senzatela does have two really good starts under his belt vs. the Padres, but the third time should be the charm for the best offense in baseball. San Diego starter Davies has mostly been lights out so far, but has given up seven runs in two starts vs. Colorado. Consider that in the nine head to head meetings between Colorado & San Diego this year, the winning team has scored at least six runs. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-09-20 | Raptors +3 v. Celtics | Top | 125-122 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on TORONTO It’s a cliche assessment of Game 5, but Toronto really was badly outplayed at both ends of the floor. The game was never really in doubt as the Celtics raced out to a 25-11 lead after one quarter and a 62-37 lead by halftime. They held the Raptors to 38.8% shooting. But as we see so often in the NBA Playoffs, teams tend to bounce back from a poor effort. Now facing elimination, the Raptors have no other option but to bounce back. They really do need to get it going offensively as they’re averaging just 97.2 PPG for the series. Throughout the course of the series, the odds have shifted rather significantly as Toronto closed as a 2-point favorite for Game 1, but is now a 3-point dog for Game 6. While the pointspread is still unlikely to come into play, we do think there’s value in taking the Raptors as an underdog. They are 6-1-1 ATS their L8 playoff games getting points. The possibility of not having Serge Ibaka hurts, however that’s something they can overcome. Coach Nurse said "I know it sounds crazy .. but I thought our offense was awesome for like the first eight minutes," This despite the team going 2 for 15. Nurse added. "I don't think those shots could have been more open." Look for the Raptors to make those open shots Wednesday. They’ve got no other option. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
09-09-20 | Brewers -142 v. Tigers | Top | 19-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
This is an 8* on MILWAUKEE The Brewers couldn’t put together enough runs to keep pace with the Tigers last night. In fact, they didn’t even score until putting three on the board in the top of the ninth! But despite losing 8-3, they actually wound up with more hits than Detroit (10-8) and it was more of a case of “cluster luck” than anything else. For today’s game, we’re backing Milwaukee as they turn to the reliable Corbin Burnes. In his previous two starts, Burnes has gone six innings and the only run allowed was unearned. He has 17 strikeouts in those 12 innings. With him on the mound, the Brewers beat Pittsburgh 9-1 and then Cleveland 7-1. In four of his five starts this season, Burnes has allowed 1 or 0 runs. Matthew Boyd gets the start here for Detroit. While he too has gone six innings in consecutive quality outings, he still allowed three home runs. Both starts saw Boyd give up two runs, which is obviously more than Brunes in the same stretch. Also, Boyd got off to a shaky start this year. None of his first six starts were considered “quality” and he’s still just 1-5 with a 6.64 ERA. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
09-08-20 | Mariners v. Giants -144 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SF RIght now, the Giants have better than 50% odds of making the postseason. With the Dodgers and Padres so far in front, the best SF can probably hope for is the 7 or 8 seed, but the National League has such little depth right now and that’s very attainable. Three straight wins have the Giants at .500 for the season (20-20). A big reason for that is an 8-2 record against the Dbax, whom they defeated yesterday by a score of 4-2. That series is now over and it’s time to welcome in a Seattle team that’s won six straight. Similar to how the Giants have feasted on the Dbax in 2020, the Mariners have done the same to the Rangers, the team they just swept. Seattle is 8-2 against Texas and 11-20 vs. everyone else. The Giants qualify as “everyone else” and shouldn’t have much difficulty beating up on a team that’s allowing almost six full runs/game on the road. A rookie, Ljay Newsome, makes just his second big league start for the Mariners today. He’s starting in place of the traded Taijuan Walker. Logan Webb goes for the Giants and he allowed no more than three runs in any of his first six starts. Play on SAN FRANCISCO AAA | |||||||
09-08-20 | Lakers v. Rockets OVER 223.5 | Top | 112-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Lakers evened this series up Sunday (1-1) with a 117-109 win in Game 2. After getting off to fast start (led 36-20 after the first quarter), LA actually trailed going into the fourth. But they turned up the defense (just 17 points allowed in 4th) and their own hot shooting (56.6% for the game) was too much for Houston to overcome. Now we’re onto a critical Game 3 that should see both teams heavily focused. Somebody to watch is Russell Westbrook, whose numbers have been far from stellar since returning to the court in the Oklahoma City series. Westbrook missed six of the seven three-point attempts he took in Game 2. We think he’s in line to have a better Game 3. On the flip side, the Rockets have allowed an average of 100 points on 43.5% shooting the L5 games. We don’t think that’ll hold up. The Lakers have a big matchup advantage on the inside (Anthony Davis) and have scored at least 111 points in five of their last six games. Look for the Over to hit for a second straight game. Play on OVER. AAA | |||||||
09-08-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -158 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VEGAS Vegas got shutout in Game 1, the third time in their last four games where they were held to one goal or less. Despite that disturbing trend, we are going to predict the Golden Knights bounce back in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals as they are favored for a reason. Dallas even making it thus far is a bit of a surprise. They were heavy underdogs in every game vs. Colorado, yet won a 7-game series. Back in the first round, they were just 12 seconds away from being down 3 games to 1 against Calgary. Vegas is 3-1 off a loss in the bubble, the lone failure being Game 6 against Vancouver. Whereas Dallas is relatively even in shots and goals (compared to their opponents) in the postseason, Vegas has big advantages in both. Even after watching Game 1, we still prefer the Golden Knights’ goaltending situation to that of the Stars. Ryan Reaves will be back for Game 2 (suspended for Game 1) and we look for the Golden Knights power play (1 for its last 14) to “wake up” if called upon. Play on VEGAS AAA | |||||||
09-08-20 | Rays v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* on WASH +1.5 Stuck in last place, the Nationals are finding it hard to defend their World Series Championship. But they did beat the Rays yesterday 6-1. Getting the Nats +1.5 at this price, at home no less, is definitely something we would not have foreseen just a couple weeks ago. We’ll take advantage of it as they still can be a dangerous club as they proved last night. A lot of that was due to Max Scherzer, but you’ve got to think there’s “more where that came from.” Tuesday’s starter Anibal Sanchez has struggled in his last two starts, however, the Rays have not scored more than five runs in 9 of their last 10 games. That leaves the door open with the run line as Washington has scored five or more runs in 6 of its last 10 contests. Rays starter Ryan Yarbrough missed his last start due to injury, thus he’s a bit of a question mark coming into today’s game. The Rays’ bullpen does not have good numbers on the road. Play WASHINGTON +1.5. AAA | |||||||
09-07-20 | Clippers v. Nuggets +9 | Top | 113-107 | Win | 100 | 23 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER Denver played a masterful Game 2, jumping out to a 44-25 advantage by the end of the first quarter, then holding on for the 110-101 upset as 8.5-point underdogs. After the Lakers successfully bounced back from a loss last night, most will anticipate the Clippers doing the same thing tonight. But we feel this line is just too high for an LA team that is just too inconsistent. Plus, the Nuggets have won four of their last five games anyway. They’ve also covered four of the last five times they’ve been an underdog. They are 12-1 ATS their L13 Monday games. Kawhi Leonard had a bad Game 2 and while his numbers should be better tonight, Denver seems to have developed a defensive strategy for him. Paul George can’t be consistently relied on as a second scoring option. We think its Denver that’s likely to have a better offensive performance tonight. Play on DENVER AAA | |||||||
09-07-20 | Astros v. A's -145 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show |
This is an 8* on OAKLAND Oakland looks to bounce back after losing two of three to San Diego over the weekend. Houston was even worse, dropping all four games to the Angels. The A’s are also going for revenge as they lost both games of a doubleheader against the ‘Stros back on August 29th. Those two games were in Houston though. When the Astros came to Oakland earlier in the year, the A’s won all three games. In that series, Montas (who starts here for Oakland) had a strong outing where he threw seven scoreless innings and allowed only two hits. In that same series (next day), Houston’s Javier (Monday starter) allowed five runs in three innings and gave up three home runs. The Astros just aren’t the same team they were the last few seasons. Some of it has to do with injuries, but they are also allowing 6.5 runs/game on the road. Play on OAKLAND AAA | |||||||
09-07-20 | Elise Mertens v. S Kenin -144 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -144 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* on Kenin We’re onto the 4th round on the women’s side of the draw in the 2020 US Open. There will be just 12 women remaining at the end of Sunday and we’ll be down to the eight quarterfinalists following this matchup of the #2 seed Kenin and the #16 seed Mertens. Kenin has yet to drop a set here in Flushing Meadow, winning 6-2 and 6-2 in Round 1 over Wickmayer, 6-4 and 6-3 over Fernandez in Round 2 and then 7-6, 6-3 over Jabeur in Round 3. Mertens also has not dropped a set, eliminating Siegemund (6-2, 6-2), Sorribes Tormo (6-3, 7-5) and then McNally (7-5, 6-1). But it’s now a big jump going to face the top seeded player left in this draw. Kenin already won the Australian Open, the only other completed Grand Slam this year. She is 2-0 vs. Mertens, both times winning in three sets. Mertens has only lost three times in 2020, but two of the losses have been on hard court. Against McNally, her first serve percentage was only at 55%. Play on KENIN AAA | |||||||
09-07-20 | Islanders v. Lightning UNDER 5 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -101 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on UNDER While it may seem “controversial” to bet the Under on a total of 5.0 - especially with the Lightning involved - what the Islanders have been doing defensively since the restart is very impressive. They’re allowing a league-best 1.94 goals per game. While Tampa Bay was able to score three or more times in 7 of the 10 games against Boston and Columbus, this is a greater challenge. Plus the Lightning have to deal with the “rust” issue having not taken the ice for an actual game since August 31st, which is exactly one week ago. The Islanders just staved off top-seeded Philadelphia in a 7-game series. But let’s not forget they were up 3-1 in that series or that they blanked the Flyers in Game 7 (4-0), holding them to just 16 shot attempts. The Isles kept the Capitals to two goals or less in four of five games in the previous round. Not convinced either side scores more than two goals tonight. There were only three games that went Over in the Lightning’s first two series. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
09-07-20 | BYU v. Navy OVER 48.5 | Top | 55-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER BYU is coming off two consecutive 7-6 seasons and this may be the most experienced (and talented) team Kalani Sitake has had yet in Provo. Last year did end with a 38-34 loss in the Hawaii Bowl (to Hawaii), however, the Cougars offense really turned it on down the stretch by scoring 31 or more points in five of the last six games. Sitake’s team opens the season all the way across the country in Annapolis against Navy. The Midshipmen won 11 games and beat Kansas State in the Liberty Bowl last year. That was a big bounce back from the 3-win season that was 2018. They averaged 37.2 points/game last season, a three year high under coach Niumatalolo. This game was not originally scheduled for 2020. While both teams have some holes to fill on offense, look for a relatively high-scoring game Monday night. We saw several teams on Saturday put up big point totals and not look adversely affected by the lack of practice time. BYU is 3-0-1 Over its last four games against American teams. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-06-20 | Rockies v. Dodgers OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Dodgers were held to just two runs on Saturday and lost to the Rockies. But you can’t keep this lineup down for long as LA has scored 230 runs in 41 games, which is second most in all of baseball. They exploded for 10 runs in the series opener and Rockies pitching has really struggled mightily this last week or so. Four different times in their last eight games, Colorado has allowed 10 runs or more. Who can forget the humiliating 23-5 loss they took on the 1st of the month, at the hands of the Giants? So the Dodgers are very much capable of sending this one Over on their own. Especially facing Castellani, who has a 7.90 ERA and 1.61 WHIP his past three starts. In two of those three starts, the Rockies opponent has ended up scoring 13 runs. The Over is 5-1 when Dodgers’ starter Urias is pitching including 3-0 L3. There have been no fewer than nine total runs scored in all of his starts in 2020. It was a low-scoring game yesterday, but that won’t be the case here in this unusually late Sunday start. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 224 | Top | 109-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Houston pulled the upset in Game 1, winning 112-97 as a 6.5-point dog. It was the Lakers’ second straight Game 1 loss as in the 1st round, they lost 100-93 to Portland. Of course, they came back and won that series by rather easily taking the next four games. So LA definitely can’t be counted out. However, they are just 3-10-1 ATS in the bubble, meaning they’re tough to trust laying points. We’re playing the total in Game 2, which we believe is too high. The Rockets 34-17 Under L51 as underdogs and 18-6 Under L24 when coming off an upset win. A big surprise in their playoff run has been the defense, which has allowed more than 108 in regulation just one time. Over the last four contests, they’re giving up just over 95 points/game and the Under is 4-0. Houston hasn’t scored more than 114 since Game 1 of the Thunder series. The Lakers allowed just 88 points against Portland in Game 2 of their last series (last time off a loss). The Under is 4-1 the last five Rockets-Lakers matchups including 2 for 2 inside the bubble. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
09-06-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights -163 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -163 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* on VEGAS Vegas earned the #1 seed in the Western Conference by sweeping its round robin games. The Golden Knights then needed only five games to dispatch Chicago in Round 1. Round 2 took a little longer than expected as the Canucks forced a Game 7. But Vegas still took the clincher in one-sided fashion, 3-0. Dallas was similarly taken to a Game 7 last round after having a 3-1 series lead over the Avalanche. They needed OT to advance as it was 5-4 victory. The Stars have been quite the high scoring side this postseason, ever since a 5-4 win over Calgary in Round 1. Since that win, they’ve scored 42 goals in 10 games. But Vegas had three shutout wins against Vancouver. Another problem for the Stars is how many goals they’ve been allowing. The Avalanche scored 24 times over the previous five games. In the playoffs, Vegas has done an outstanding job at controlling the puck and dominating shots on goal. They’ve got a much better goaltending situation than either of Dallas’ prior two opponents and beat the Stars 5-3 in the very first game here in the bubble. Take the better team. Play on VEGAS AAA | |||||||
09-05-20 | Nuggets +9 v. Clippers | Top | 110-101 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER The Nuggets look to rebound from a poor Game 1 effort where they were at the disadvantage of only having one day between series while the Clippers had three. Still, it wasn’t just a matter of rest in the 120-97 defeat. Denver shot the ball horribly, especially from “downtown” as they were 9 of 36 on all three-point attempts. Overall, they shot 42.2% while the Clippers were at 57.1%. We won’t claim that the Nuggets are a great defensive team, but they’ll definitely allow a lower shooting percentage Saturday in Game 2. Denver has cashed the L6 times they have been down in a playoff series including a 3-0 ATS this year. Note that the Clippers failed to cover off their first two wins in the first round series with Dallas, losing outright both times. This is a lot of points for the Nuggets to be getting and while it may not have been nearly enough in Game 1, improved shooting coupled with some obvious regression from the Clippers should lead to at least a cover this time. Play on DENVER AAA | |||||||
09-05-20 | Rangers v. Mariners -124 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 41 m | Show |
THis is a 10* on SEATTLE These two AL West also-rans have already met seven times on the field this season. The Mariners won the last four, all of which have been played here in Seattle. They swept a weekend series two weeks ago, then took last night’s opener by a score of 6-3. Sad to report Rangers fans that the misery is likely to continue tonight. Kyle Gibson is on the mound and Texas is just 1-6 when he starts including 0-3 the last three. In those last three starts, Gibson has a 9.37 ERA. He’s given up five or more runs every start, 17 total, and allowed six home runs. Seattle has won three in a row now, and given up only five runs in the process. Sheffield pitched once before against the Rangers and he held them to one run in six innings as the Mariners ultimately prevailed 10-1. The Rangers’ run differential is really bad (-65) as only the Red Sox are worse. Play on SEATTLE AAA | |||||||
09-05-20 | Andre Muniz v. Bartosz Fabinski -160 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -160 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* on FABINSKI These two middleweights are both coming off victories their last time out. Fabinski’s was more recent as he took a unanimous decision over Darren Stewart back in March to move to 15-3. Muniz is on a five-fight win streak, but hasn’t fought since November, which was his UFC debut. So the five consecutive victories don’t really carry much water. Though he’s fought more recently, Fabinski has just five fights total under his belt the last four years due to injuries. But he also has just one loss since 2014 as he’s gone 8-1 his last nine. Most of those wins have been by decision, but that speaks to the style of fighter than Fabinski is. He’s a grind it out type guy, content to win via the judges. He has no problem simply staying ahead on points and an ability to get this fight to the mat should obviously work in his favor. Muniz has a tendency to tire late, so look for Fabinski to pour it on in the final round - if it gets there. Play on FABINSKI AAA | |||||||
09-05-20 | Arkansas State v. Memphis -18 | Top | 24-37 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MEMPHIS Memphis is a big favorite Saturday and justifiably so as they are coming off a 12-2 season last year and have won seven straight season openers. Arkansas State went 8-5 SU in 2019 and has now won at least 7 games in each of Blake Anderson’s six seasons here. But the Red Wolves are badly outclassed in this one. Their defense gave up 34.2 points/game and 6.1 yards/play last year and has just three starters back. Memphis is likely to be the best offense they see all season. Though the head coach left, the schemes and key contributors on the field largely remain the same for the Tigers. QB White leads an offense that has averaged over 40 points/game each of the previous three seasons. Memphis was 7-0 at the Liberty Bowl last season, winning most of those games by double digits. They’ve covered six of the last eight times they’ve been a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points. Play on MEMPHIS AAA | |||||||
09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 6 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARMY (Money Line) Both Middle Tennessee and Army are expected to be improved in 2020. For Middle Tennessee, the bounce back seems logical. Two years ago they were 7-1 in Conference USA and came up just 2 points shy of the Title Game. Losing QB Stockstill last season (graduation) had a real impact as they fell all the way down to 4-8 overall, ending a 7-year bowl run. It’s a similar deal for Army, who went 11-2 SU two years ago only to drop to 5-8 SU last season. These teams combined to go 1-7 straight up in one score games in 2019. Only one can win here though and we think that will be Army. This game was not originally on the schedule and preparing for the triple option is tough even when you know that it's coming. Middle Tennessee’s defense was bad last year as they were bottom 20 in the country in yards allowed. They have just three returning starters. On offense, the Blue Raiders are missing their top two running backs, both of whom opted out. Army is 5-1-1 ATS in September the last two seasons. MTSU is 2-5 ATS. Play on ARMY (money line) AAA | |||||||
09-04-20 | White Sox -153 v. Royals | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* on CHICAGO The White Sox find themselves fighting in a tough three-way battle for first place in the American League Central. An 11-6 win here in Kansas City yesterday allowed them to keep pace with the Indians, whom they trail by just half a game. The White Sox have been one of baseball’s hotter teams the last three weeks, going 13-4 in their last 17 games. As for the Royals, with just 22 games remaining, they are reduced to the role of spoiler for the top three in the division. KC finds itself in last and has lost three in a row, all by 5 runs or more. We don’t see any indication they’ll get off the mat tonight as the starting pitching matchup certainly is not in their favor. For the White Sox, Dane Dunning has a 2.89 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in his two starts. The team has won both with the last one coming against Kansas City. Dunning threw five shutout innings in that one and didn’t give up a hit. For the Royals, Brady Singer has a 5.19 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in seven starts and has really been roughed up of late. Singler has allowed four home runs his last three starts. Chicago is now 6-1 this year vs. KC after the win yesterday, 4-0 on the road. Play on CHICAGO AAA | |||||||
09-04-20 | Bucks v. Heat +5 | Top | 100-115 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MIAMI Miami has seized control of this series and there has been nothing remotely fluky about it. Well, Jimmy Butler getting to shoot a pair of “walkoff” free throws in Game 2 might seem a bit fluky. But remember that situation came after a somewhat improbable late game run by the Bucks. The Heat have held the league’s highest scoring offense to just 109 points per game. Going back to the regular season, they have had Milwaukee’s number, winning four of the five meetings. The only loss came here in the bubble and even then the Heat led that game by 17 at halftime. Miami is now 6-0 ATS in the NBA Playoffs and has allowed 104 points or less in four of those wins. Milwaukee is the East’s #1 seed, but they’ve looked like an inferior side the first two games. Quite frankly, they haven’t looked right this whole time in the bubble. They’re only 5-9-1 ATS with three of the covers coming against Orlando. They are also just 3-8 SU when you take out that first round series. Play on MIAMI AAA | |||||||
09-04-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -127 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -127 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Colorado has been our call each of the last five games and while that hasn’t gone as well as we’d hoped (just 3-2), here we are in a Game 7 Friday night. Though they were down 3-1 in the series, the Avalanche are the better side. Game 5 was the turning point when they delivered a record-breaking five goals in the 1st period. In the last eight games, the Avs have scored six or more goals four different and four or more goals six times. After Dallas went on its own incredible scoring run (26 goals in five games), they have been held to just four the past two games. Game 6, a 4-1 loss, was their lowest scoring of this series. Relative to how they were priced at the beginning of the series, we’re getting a bit of a “bargain” on the Avs in Game 7. They’ve got all the momentum and were always the better side to begin with. They are 15-5 the last 20 games where they allowed two or fewer goals the previous game. Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
09-03-20 | Golden Knights v. Canucks OVER 6 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER Vegas suffered a shocking loss in Game 5, falling to Vancouver by a score of 2-1. We had the Canucks on the puck line, but for the second time in this series when doing so, the +1.5 wasn’t even necessary. The Golden Knights have basically been a favorite of -200 or higher every game in the series. So it is a little surprising we’ve gotten all the way to Game 6. It’s tough to imagine Vegas losing two in a row, something they have yet to do while in the bubble. Last time they were off a loss, they bounced back to shut Vancouver out in Game 3. Odds are too high to take the Golden Knights, but we’re definitely confident they bounce back offensively in this one following what was their lowest scoring effort of the series. Since returning from lockdown, they have averaged a very solid 3.5 goals per game (3.2 for this series). Vancouver’s scoring average has come down in this series, but the fact they have scored four or more goals seven times in the bubble cannot be overlooked. The Over is 20-7-1 the L28 times Vancouver has been off a game where it scored two or less goals. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-03-20 | Nuggets +8.5 v. Clippers | Top | 97-120 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* on DENVER While Denver was taken to a 7th game by Utah, a series that just wrapped up Tuesday, let us also not forget the Clippers went six games against the Dallas Mavericks. These teams did meet earlier in the bubble with the Clippers winning 124-111. But they were only four point favorites for that game and trailed by eight at the half. This Game 1 number certainly seems to be inflated as far as we’re concerned. That’s probably due to the two fewer days of rest that Denver and the fact they were just the 12th team in NBA history to win a series in which it trailed 3-1. But Gary Harris is back for them now. Jamal Murray had three straight games of more than 42 points before Game 7 vs. Utah. Twice he went for 50. The Nuggets have covered six of the last nine times they’ve been getting points. The Clippers can be inconsistent, sometimes taking “nights off” and there are scoring issues behind Kawhi Leonard. This is too many points. Play on DENVER AAA | |||||||
09-03-20 | South Alabama v. Southern Miss -13 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on SOUTHERN MISS So Southern Mississippi is a decided favorite over South Alabama and we can’t say that we’re surprised. South Alabama has won all of five games the previous two seasons and was 2-10 SU in 2019. Head coach Steve Campbell really needs to show improvement in year three. The only problem is he’s got just 11 starters back from a team that wasn’t good in the first place. The Jaguars enter 2020 pretty thin along both lines - offensive and defensive. Southern Miss has gone 28-22 SU in four years under Jay Hopson. QB Abraham is back leading an offense that put up 6.1 yards per play last season. The Golden Eagles have covered five of the last seven games against the Sun Belt, though this is the first-ever meeting with South Alabama. USA did not have a good offense last year. Though they showed signs late, the Jaguars still ended up averaging just 18.4 points/game. We look for Southern Miss to control in the trenches and their pass rush should get after South Alabama QB Trotter. Play on Southern Miss AAA | |||||||
09-03-20 | Felix Auger-Aliassime -170 v. Andy Murray | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* F Auger-Aliassime We’re onto the second round in Flushing Meadow as the 15th-seeded Auger-Aliassime takes on the unranked Andy Murray. Auger-Aliassime got here in four sets over Monteiro, winning 6-3, 6-7, 7-6, 7-6. That three straight sets went into a tiebreak, two of which he won, we’re not bothered in the least. Murray needed five sets to win his Round 1 match with Nishioka and rallied back from two sets down, needing tiebreaks in both the third and fourth just to stay alive. Murray’s best days are long behind him. The U.S. Open is just his second tournament of the year. Surgery has taken away some of his quickness. His opponent is 13 years his junior, faster and in better condition. Auger--Aliassime has a strong serve as well and should easily win this first ever meeting against Murray. Play on Auger-Aliassime AAA | |||||||
09-03-20 | Rangers v. Astros -156 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 60 m | Show |
This is an 8* on HOUSTON Texas has been pretty bad this year. Only Boston has a worse run differential. The Rangers come in having been outscored by 58 runs this season. While they’ve been competitive here in Hoston, splitting a pair of one-run decisions, we just don’t like them in this Thursday afternoon matchup. Houston will be sending Zack Greinke to the mound. Greinke has pitched much better than his 3-4 team start record would seem to indicate as his ERA and WHIP are 2.68 and 0.94 respectively. He’s allowed three runs or less every start and hadn’t given up a homer until allowing two to Oakland last week. Texas will send out their ace, Lance Lynn, to oppose Greinke. He’s allowed a HR in five of his last six outings and was roughed up a bit by the Dodgers in the most recent one. The Rangers are just 4-12 so far in road games while being outscored by an average of 2.2 runs/game! Houston is +1.7 rpg over their opponents here at home. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
09-02-20 | Padres -165 v. Angels | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
This is an 8* on SAN DIEGO San Diego has won 11 of its last 14 games due in no small part to an offense that leads the league with 211 runs scored. Three of the past five games have seen the Padres score 10 or more runs. They are coming off a 6-0 win at Colorado on Monday. Making the Angels task even more difficult tonight is the fact Lamet will be the SD starter. Lamet has allowed two runs or less in six of his seven starts thus far and never more than three. The Angels have never faced him before. Coming off two straight losses where they scored just one run (against Seattle!), this looks to be a really bad matchup for Los Angeles. Teheran is 0-2 with a 9.17 ERA in five games and had been demoted to the bullpen at one point. While San Diego has shined in interleague play thus far (8-2), the Angels have been quite the opposite (1-6). Play on SAN DIEGO AAA | |||||||
09-02-20 | Thunder v. Rockets OVER 218.5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER It comes down to one game for Oklahoma City and Houston. Winner moves on. The loser goes home. The Rockets won the first two games, 123-108 and 111-98, with Game 1 being our top NBA side selection for all of August. We had the Rockets in Game 2 as well. Game 3 it was time to pivot to the Over, another winner for us, and this time one for Oklahoma City as they prevailed 119-107 in overtime. The next two games we laid off. Game 4 was another close Thunder win, 117-114, then the Rockets bounced back in a major way in Russell Westbrook’s return with a 114-80 win in Game 5. Game 6 saw us “re-enter” the series with a play on the Under. It hit comfortably as it was a 104-100 Thunder win with a total of 223.5. So while the series is tied 3-3, we’re 4-0. Over is the play for Game 7 as neither team has really shot very well the L2 games, something we anticipate will change. The two games with the lowest posted totals both went Over. This will probably close as the 2nd lowest total for any game of the series. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-02-20 | Avalanche -123 v. Stars | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO We’ve been pretty steadfast that Colorado is a better team than Dallas. In fact, we’ve taken them in each of the last four games of this series! While that hasn’t been profitable so far (gone 2-2 and down juice), Game 5 certainly seemed to be a turning point. The Avalanche scored five times in a record-breaking 1st period and won in a rout, 6-3. There’s been a ton of focus (rightly so) on how many goals Dallas has been scoring, but the fact is that the Avs have scored six or more times in four of the last seven games. That includes twice in the last three games. The Avs have outshot the Stars in the series, averaging 36.2 attempts per game. They had 41 in Game 5. Goaltending is now a huge storyline. Of course, Colorado lost Philipp Grubauer to injury in Game 1. Pavel Francouz was ineffective, but the Avs may have found their man in Michael Hutchinson, who made 31 saves in an unexpected start Monday. For Dallas, despite being deemed “unfit to play,” Ben Bishop got the Game 5 nod and it turns out he was indeed “unfit to play” as he gave up four goals before being replaced by Anton Khudobin. Khudobin is no safe bet either as he’d never made a playoff start before this year. As detailed in our writeup for the last game, Dallas’ scoring surge was extremely shocking and unlikely to continue. We’ve taken Colorado each of the last four games. Make it five in a row. Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
09-02-20 | Indians -154 v. Royals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* on CLEVELAND Any time the Indians score a ton of runs, like they did last night, they are a virtual lock to win. Yesterday 10-1 win here in Kansas City improved the Tribe to an amazing 17-2 when scoring at least three runs. With them facing Junis today, we think they’ll easily get to three runs. Junis has allowed at least five runs four of the last five times he’s faced Cleveland. He also has a 1.58 WHIP in his three 2020 starts, none of which have lasted a full five innings. Triston McKenzie has looked great for Cleveland in his two starts, both of which the team has won. He’s allowed just three runs and five hits in 10 innings and has 13 strikeouts. Cleveland is allowing just 2.9 runs/game for the season, the fewest in all of baseball. The Royals have scored just five runs in their last three games and only three in this series. Play on CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
09-01-20 | Canucks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VAN +1.5 (PL) We’ve gone 10-1 when playing the puck line in 2020 including a perfect 5-0 since the restart. Opportunities are obviously getting scarce as the playoffs progress with money lines tightening up. But here is a chance to take the Canucks +1.5 when everyone has likely “given up” on them. We didn’t give up on Vancouver in Game 2 when they were coming off a 5-0 loss in the series opener. Now they’ve lost Games 3 and 4 by scores of 3-0 and 5-3. Those games were played on back to back days following three days off due to the protests. Now the Canucks find themselves needing a win to stay alive in this best of seven series. Whether or not they can pull that off remains to be seen but we do like them to at least stay within one goal of the Golden Knights in Game 5. They had the lead going into the third period of Game 4, 2-1, but then gave up three goals in the span of 5:57. The only other time that the Canucks were off two straight losses here in the bubble, they came up big, beating St. Louis 4-3 to take control of the last series. They are 7-2 the L9 times playing on one day’s rest. Play on VANCOUVER +1.5 (PUCK LINE) AAA | |||||||
09-01-20 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 3-6 | Push | 0 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The Dodgers are in a lot better shape than the Dbax right now and that’s why they’re a big favorite to win Tuesday. Los Angeles currently holds the best record in baseball at 26-10 and they are WAY out in front of everyone else with a +90 run differential. Arizona is last in the division with a 14-21 record and has lost 9 of its last 10. With it being highly likely the Dodgers will come up to bat only eight times in this game, we’re predicting an Under. Earlier in the year, these teams played a four game series in Arizona. The Dodgers won three of the games and the Under hit three times as well. The Dbax scored just 10 runs in the four games. They’ve scored no more than two runs in 7 of the last 10 ballgames. The Under is 5-0 their last five road games. On the bright side, Young has allowed three runs or less in every start. Urias held the Dbax to two runs and five hits in the earlier series. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 217.5 | Top | 78-80 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* on the OVER Bettors (even some sharp ones!) seem content to think that eventually a Denver game is going to go Under the total. It’s happened only one time in the bubble (out of a possible 14 games) and most of the games have gone way Over. Take this series where the six games have averaged 234.3 points/game. Yet oddsmakers keep setting low totals and bettors keep taking the bait. Not us. The only Under for the Nuggets in the bubble required an ugly 87-point effort from them. Other than that, most games have gone Over by double digits. In battling back to force this Game 7, Denver has turned in a bubble-best defensive performance two games in a row, allowing just 107 points in both wins. We don’t trust them to do so again though. Each team has a player (Utah - Mitchell, Denver - Murray) that could set a new NBA record for most points in a playoff series tonight. The Jazz have been pretty bad defensively in the bubble as well. They’ve allowed at least 110 points in all but three games. The Over is 16-5 the last 21 times the Jazz have been off a loss. Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
09-01-20 | Tigers v. Brewers -171 | Top | 12-1 | Loss | -171 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE The Tigers have won five in a row, including a three-game sweep of the Twins over the weekend, and now are 16-16 on the year. Being at .500, even through only 32 games, is a massive achievement for a club that won only 47 of its 161 games played last season while it was outscored by 333 runs. But look for the “good times” to come to an end on Tuesday when the Tigers visit Milwaukee. The five straight wins have all taken place at home. The Brewers, who were home over the weekend and won two of three vs. Pittsburgh, are a team to be trusted in this price range at Miller Park. They’ve won all three times this year as a home favorite of -175 or higher. Michael Fulmer starts for Detroit and that’s a problem. While the team is 3-2 in Fulmer’s five starts thus far, the pitcher has an 8.79 ERA. He’s not exactly putting his team in position to win with zero of his starts lasting longer than three innings. The Tigers have lost 36 of their last 51 series openers. Lindblom should pitch well enough for the home team to win this one. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
09-01-20 | Jannik Sinner v. Karen Khachanov -170 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
This is an 8* on Khachanov This is a first round match in the U.S. Open Tournament. Khachanov, the 11-seed, should roll against the unseeded Sinner. This is the first ever meeting. Khachanov had a breakthrough 2018, which included a win over Novak Djokovic in the Paris Masters, before suffering through a disappointing 2019. At one point he was ranked as high as 8th in the world. His return to the court last week saw him make the third round of the Western & Southern Open. Sinner has been labeled as an “up and comer” but has never been ranked higher than 68th in the world. He’s currently 74th and has not played since February. This is a good price on the favorite. Play on Khachanov AAA | |||||||
08-31-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -133 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* on COLORADO Back on August 16th, the Stars trailed Calgary 4-3 and were 12 seconds away from falling behind in that series 3-1. But then they tied the game, won it, and what has ensued has been a stunning run of goal scoring by a team not known for having a prolific offense. Dallas has won 6 of its last 7 games, scoring 33 goals in the process, and now can eliminate Colorado with yet another win tonight. The absurdity of this scoring outburst by the Stars has to be read to be believed. In what turned out to be the close out game vs. Calgary, they fell behind 3-0 before even getting a shot on goal. They then scored seven straight goals of their own, marking the first time in NHL Playoff history a team won by 3+ goals in a game in which it trailed by 3+ goals. This series has seen them score 4+ goals in every game, but despite having a 3-1 series lead, they have been outshot by a fairly wide margin. The last five games have seen the Stars score on 17.7% of their shot attempts, which is just crazy. While many will point the finger at Avs goalie Pavel Francouz (starting in place of the injured Philipp Grubauer), the fact is they’ve led by two goals in two of the four games. Dallas goalie Khudobin had never made a playoff start before this year and should still be considered unproven. Colorado has scored 4 or more goals 4 times in the last 6 games, so it should be better than 3-3 in that stretch. Look for them to win this do or die game. Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
08-31-20 | Rockets v. Thunder UNDER 226 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The return of Russell Westbrook led to a very easy Game 5 victory for the Rockets. They won by 34, 114-80, and can now eliminate Westbrook’s former team for good. Westbrook didn’t even do much scoring Saturday. He had just 7 pts in 23 minutes of action. James Harden scored his usual 31 while the Rockets held the Thunder to 31.5% shooting overall and a woeful 7 of 46 on 3-pt attempts. It certainly didn’t help OKC’s cause that they lost Dennis Schroeder in the second quarter to an ejection. He had 19 points at the time he was tossed. While we certainly expect the Thunder to have a better offensive showing here than they did in Game 5, it won’t be enough to send this one Over. There’s been only one game in the series that the Thunder have scored more than 108 in regulation. Even Houston has averaged “only” 113.8 points/game for the series, including the one overtime loss. OKC is 22-10 Under this season with the total at 220 points or higher. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
08-31-20 | Indians v. Royals OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* on OVER The Indians have done a remarkable job at run prevention this year, leading to the Under cashing in 67% of their games (22-11-1). Not far behind in the Under department is division foe Kansas City (20-12-2 Under) and these teams open up a three-game series on Monday. Before you go thinking Under, note Cleveland did just give up seven runs yesterday in a loss to St. Louis. (The Cardinals were our 10* Game of the Month, by the way). The Tribe had also scored 14 runs of their own in a win Friday. So two of the three games in the last series did go Over. Most Royals totals are higher than this one, which explains their YTD Under mark. Don’t let a pitching matchup of Bieber vs. Keller scare you off either. Bieber’s ERA vs. KC is 4.33. Keller’s last start saw him allow 10 baserunners in only 4 innings as the Royals lost 9-3. Before losing 5-2 to the White Sox on Sunday, the Royals had scored five or more runs in four straight games. It doesn’t take much to go Over a total like this and we think the Indians and Royals will “get there.” Play on OVER AAA | |||||||
08-30-20 | Nuggets +2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 119-107 | Win | 101 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
The Nuggets are one more loss away from their season ending. This was also the case heading into Game 5 which they won 117-107 to stay alive. Before staying alive in Game 5, we took the points with Denver in Game 4 and they also covered the spread there. They are now 5-0 ATS the last two seasons when trailing in a playoff series after covering the last two games. Utah is 5-12 ATS when coming off an outright loss as a favorite this year. They are just 1-4 ATS when leading in a playoff series the last two years. The Jazz have very little to offer offensively other than Donovan Mitchell, something that has become readily obvious in their two SU losses in this series. Play on DENVER AAA | |||||||
08-30-20 | Avalanche -130 v. Stars | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 10 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Down 0-2 to the Stars in this best of seven, the Avalanche desperately needed to win Game 3. We took the Avs on the money line and they did win, 6-4. We'll take them again in Game 4. Colorado entered this series as a decided favorite, but has lost its starting goalie Philipp Grubauer and all of a sudden Dallas has become some sort of offensive juggernaut, scoring 14 goals in the series. That’s a far cry from when these teams faced off in the round robin and the Avs won 4-0. Interestingly enough, that was with backup Francouz between the pipes. While you could argue that win was an anomaly (it’s had been the only time the Avs had beaten the Stars in seven tries this season, prior to Game 3), we still believe Colorado to be the better team. You can’t forget how they closed out the Arizona series with two straight 7-1 victories. Look for Dallas’ offensive surge to eventually slow down as they’ve been outshot in the series and the Avs have scored six or more goals in three of the last five games themselves. Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
08-30-20 | Indians v. Cardinals +113 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 113 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 10* on STL After getting rocked 14-2 on Friday, the Cardinals played a much closer game against the Indians on Saturday. But as we know, “close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.” The Redbirds still lost 2-1, a game that went extra innings, and now face the possibility of being swept in their own ballpark. We think they’ll rise to the occasion Sunday behind Adam Wainwright, whose four starts have gone very well. He has a 2.88 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. This is a veteran pitcher that knows how to step up in this spot. Solving Cleveland’s pitching is something few teams have been able to do in 2020, but it shouldn’t take many runs for the Cardinals to win this game. The Indians entered the series with the 4th lowest team batting average and they are hitting just .208 on the road. With Civale starting, they are just 3-3 this season and have scored two runs or less in all three losses. The Cardinals are 42-17 L59 after losing the first two games of a series. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA | |||||||
08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 216.5 | Top | 112-94 | Win | 100 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER The second round of the NBA Playoffs gets underway Sunday with the Celtics taking on the Raptors. These teams have already met one time in the bubble and the result was an impressive 122-100 beatdown by the Celtics. That’s the only loss by the Raptors since the restart. They swept Brooklyn in the first round, winning three of the four games by double digits including a 150-point effort in the close out. Boston also swept its first round series as they faced an undermanned Philadelphia squad. That series was a bit tighter and certainly lower-scoring as Boston held the Sixers to 106 points or fewer in all four games. We saw what they did to Toronto, holding them to 42.7% shooting (26.3% on 3’s) back on 8.7. These are two of the top defensive teams in the league. The Raptors held the Nets under 100 points in two of the four first round games and below 40% shooting in three of the games. Not to be outdone, Boston has held seven of its last eight opponents under 43% shooting. Gordon Hayward is out for the Celtics while Kyle Lowry could miss this game for the Raptors. The longer than expected layoff should have a negative effect on all remaining shooters. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
08-30-20 | Twins -200 v. Tigers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -200 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 6* on MINNESOTA Not only have the Tigers won six of their last eight, they surprisingly swept the Twins in a doubleheader Saturday, winning by scores of 8-2 and 4-2. Those losses dropped the Twins, now losers of four straight, out of first place in the Central Division. However, we’ll look for them to bounce back in a major way Sunday as they send Maeda to the hill. Maeda has a 5-1 team start record, 2.21 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. He’s allowed no more than three runs in any of the six starts. In the past, the Twins have been very dominant as a larger road favorite, owning a 14-4 mark the L18 times they’ve been priced at -175 or higher. Detroit is going with Mize on the mound today. He has given up more runs in his two starts then Maeda has given up in his last five. It’s a huge pitching mismatch on Sunday and the Twins offense can remain dormant for only so long. They are 26-14 L40 games vs. the Tigers. Play on MINNESOTA AAA | |||||||
08-29-20 | Golden Knights v. Canucks UNDER 6 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 24 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER This series is tied 1-1 and both sides have scored five times in their respective victories. Game 1 was a 5-0 Vegas shutout, but Vancouver bounced back to win 5-2 in Game 2 and even things up. It’s time for a lower-scoring Game 3 as the Canucks got those five Game 2 goals on only 27 shots. Their shooting percentage this postseason is a crazy 11.6% and even higher (12.2%) the past five games. They’re averaging 3.2 goals per game in the playoffs on just 27.9 shot attempts. For the frame of reference, Vegas has averaged 3.7 goals on 36.3 shots per game. Both teams scoring rates are due to come down. The Under is 3-1 for the Golden Knights this postseason when the total is 6.0. No Vancouver game has had a total of 6.0 so far. The Under is also 4-0 the last four times Vegas has been off a game where they allowed 5 or more goals. Don’t see either team scoring five goals in Game 3. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
08-29-20 | Blazers +13.5 v. Lakers | Top | 122-131 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* on PORTLAND Portland won’t have Damian Lillard as they try and stave off elimination in tonight’s Game 5 against the Lakers. After an 8-2 start to the bubble, they’ve lost three straight games, two of them by 20 or more points. None of the preceding sounds good for tonight. But, predictably, there’s been an overreaction by the oddsmakers here in the wake of the Lillard injury. They had to do it as the public will overwhelmingly bet the Lakers here. But we’re not convinced the line move should have been 7 points. Even without their best player, look for Portland to compete. Beyond its two stars - LeBron and Anthony Davis - the Lakers don’t have much depth, especially in the backcourt. Los Angeles is also a poor three-point shooting team. They made 56.3% of their shots in Game 4, a number they won’t come close to matching tonight. Games 2 and 4 are the only double digit wins the Lakers have in the bubble. The Blazers have some players, notably CJ McCollum, who can step up. They are 4-1 ATS off a double digit loss. We think the extra time between games well help the Blazers adjust to "life without Lillard." Play on PORTLAND AAA | |||||||
08-29-20 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -131 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -131 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ARIZONA Arizona broke its 8-game losing streak last night and did so in convincing fashion, beating the Giants 7-4. They were up 7-1 heading into the ninth in what was also a revenge spot as the Dbax had been swept in San Francisco last weekend. We told you to take the Dbax Friday and the same holds true tonight. While they may not have the same distinct scheduling advantage they held going into yesterday’s game (had Thursday off while SF played a doubleheader) nor is the starting pitching matchup as lopsided, the Dbax remain the play. The Giants had scored only one run in 22 innings before putting a rather meaningless three on the board in the ninth last night. Cahill’s numbers may look good, but he’s walked a lot of batters and hasn’t gone longer than 5 ⅓. He beat Weaver and Arizona in his last start, 6-1, but Weaver actually pitched every bit as well. That was a failure of the Dbax bullpen. We don’t think the Giants are very good. Their recent seven-game win streak was a mirage and Arizona is the better team. Trust us on that. Play on ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
08-28-20 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -170 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
This is an 8* on ARIZONA Arizona has lost eight in a row. The last three losses were all to the Colorado Rockies, at home and by one run margins. San Francisco had won a season-high seven straight, but was then shut out in both games of a doubleheader yesterday (against the Dodgers). Like every other game in this report, this play is born out of revenge as last weekend saw the Dbax lose three games in SF. They scored only four runs the entire series. But the fact they were off yesterday (protest) while the Giants played twice gives the home team a big advantage in this one as they look to atone for last weekend’s embarrassing performance. Another advantage is having Zac Gallen on the mound for tonight’s opener. Gallen has a 7-1 TSR at Chase Field in his career with a 2.27 ERA. He has 56 strikeouts in those eight starts and has held opposing hitters to an .187 average. Giants starter Anderson has started four times on the road this year and has a 5.94 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Play on ARIZONA AAA | |||||||
08-28-20 | Pirates v. Brewers -185 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 7* on MILWAUKEE Revenge is going to be the “commonality” in this 3-game report Friday and we start with a Milwaukee team that suffered an embarrassing three-game sweep last weekend in Pittsburgh. Sweeping that series accounts for 33% of the Pirates’ wins this season! They are just 6-19 otherwise and that’s even including the fact they’ll come into this series on a two-game win streak. Both of those wins came Thursday in a doubleheader sweep of St. Louis. Milwaukee also played in a doubleheader yesterday, although they lost both games to Cincinnati. Despite how the last seven days have gone, the Brewers still remain decided favorites for this rematch from last weekend as they should. We just can’t see them losing as a big favorite to Pittsburgh a fourth straight time. Though he did pitch well in last weekend’s series, Holland still has an 8.04 ERA and 1.72 WHIP his last three starts for the Bucs. Milwaukee’s Burnes has started three times, all on the road, and has a 3.29 ERA. Pittsburgh is 0-6 so far this season as a road underdog of +175 to +250. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
08-28-20 | Mets v. Yankees -141 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -141 | 6 h 3 m | Show |
This is a 10* on the YANKEES This play is on the first game of today’s doubleheader, which was necessitated by last weekend’s cancellations due to positive COVID tests within the Mets clubhouses. Even though both of today’s games are being played at Yankee Stadium, the Yankees will be the designated home team for only this first game. Both games are also only seven innings due to this year’s rules on doubleheaders. That the Yankees come up to bat last in this first game has little to do with why we are taking them. It’s more so that they enter as the more desperate team as they are on a five-game losing streak. Yesterday was always going to be an off-day for them. Meanwhile, the Mets (along with the Marlins) walked off the field for their scheduled game Thursday in protest. The Yankees are 10-4 at home so far and the fact they are coming off a “normal” off day gives them the advantage. They are averaging 6.3 runs/game in this ballpark, so whether they come up to bat first or last is really immaterial. Also important is that starter Montgomery’s team start record at home is 3-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 0.91 WHIP. The Mets are starting Wacha, whose numbers are not good (6.43 ERA, 1.64 WHIP), and the team is 0-3 so far as a road dog of +125 to +175. Play on NY YANKEES AAA | |||||||
08-26-20 | Avalanche -138 v. Stars | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Down 0-2 to the Stars in this best of seven, the Avalanche desperately need to win Game 3 and we think they’ll come through. Colorado entered this series as a decided favorite, but has lost its starting goalie Philipp Grubauer and all of a sudden Dallas has become some sort of offensive juggernaut, scoring five times in both wins. That’s a far cry from when these teams faced off in the round robin and the Avs won 4-0. For the record, that was with backup Francouz between the pipes. Maybe that was an anomaly as it’s the only time the Avs have beaten the Stars in seven meetings this season. But we’re willing to look past that head to head record as we still believe Colorado to be the better team. You can’t forget they closed out the Arizona series with two straight 7-1 victories. Look for Dallas’ sudden offensive surge to slow down as they’ve been outshot in both games (40-27 in Game 2) and the Avs are 6-0 the last six times they’ve been off a loss by 3 goals or more. Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
08-25-20 | Canucks +1.5 v. Golden Knights | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* on VANCOUVER +1.5 Game 1 probably couldn’t have gone much worse for the Canucks as they lost 5-0 to the Golden Knights. Despite taking the Knights ourselves, even we were taken aback by how one-sided the game got. But now we expect the Canucks to bounce back in Game 2 and at least keep the score within one goal. Prior to being blown out in Game 1, Vancouver had won 7 of 9 games with just one loss in regulation. Vegas has four one-goal victories in the bubble and won two other games in which they trailed by at least two goals. It can be argued that Game 1 was the Knights best game since the restart. It was certainly Vancouver’s worst effort. The Canucks were also shut out in their first game (3-0 by Minnesota) but then came back to win the next five. That they have never beaten Vegas in regulation all-time is pretty shocking. They have won Game 2 in both previous series. Expect a much closer Game 2 with Vancouver possibly pulling the upset. Play on VANCOUVER +1.5 AAA | |||||||
08-25-20 | Mariners v. Padres -169 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -169 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 7* on SAN DIEGO This is a complete mismatch. San Diego is 18-12 at the halfway mark and the hottest team in baseball, having won seven in a row. They just swept the Astros. While Seattle also swept its last series, that was against a bad Texas team. The Mariners were only 8-19 on the year before that sweep. Still with one of the worst run differentials in either league (-38), Seattle just isn’t capable of beating a quality opponent like the Padres, who are already 7-0 against the American League this season. The Mariners had one other three-game win streak this year. Not only did they lose their next time out, they proceeded to lose 14 of the next 17 games. Chris Paddack toes the rubber here for San Diego and he has a 2.66 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home where the team has gone 10-4. Marco Gonzalez has pitched well for Seattle but Tuesday’s starter is going to have to deal with the Padres offense that has averaged 8.0 runs/game during its win streak. It seems unlikely Gonzalez will pitch well tonight. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA | |||||||
08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 236 | Top | 111-154 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER Luka Doncic didn’t just play in Game 4, he dominated with an incredible stat line of 43-17-13 and hit the game winner in overtime to tie this series up at 2-2. The last three games, two of which were Dallas wins, have gone Over the total. Game 4 would have gone Over even without the extra period. The wild swings we saw in that game - with the Clippers leading by as many as 21 in the second quarter and the Mavs by as many as 12 in the third quarter - probably aren’t going to take place tonight. In fact, we’re anticipating a slightly more “defensive affair” even though the O/U line has hit the high point of the series. That’s an obvious reflection on the previous three games, but it’s also giving us some value. The Clippers are 11-3 Under this season after scoring 130 or more points in their previous game. Dallas has shot 50% or better in each of the last three games, which seems unlikely to continue given the Clippers are a solid defensive team. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
08-24-20 | Stars v. Avalanche -150 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -150 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* on COLORADO Colorado didn’t see Dallas coming in Game 1. They were blitzed early, as they allowed three goals in the first period, and could never catch up (lost 5-3). Now the favored Avalanche find themselves in a bit of a must win against a team they’ve only beaten once in six tries this season. That one time was 4-0 in the round robin round though and it’s fair to say the Avs are the better team here, despite the recent surge in scoring by the Stars. Colorado has lost goalie Grubauer to a groin injury, but it’s interesting to note that it was his backup (Francouz) that was between the pipes for the aforementioned 4-0 shutout earlier this month. The Avs are 15-6 after allowing 4 or more goals in the previous game and 21-12 in revenge spots this year. They have yet to lose two straight in the bubble where they have outshot opponents by a considerable margin. Play on COLORADO AAA | |||||||
08-24-20 | Reds v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
This is a 10* on UNDER It wasn’t a good weekend for either of these two National League Central clubs. The Reds lost three of four in St. Louis while Milwaukee got swept in Pittsburgh. The Reds have managed to score just 10 runs in the last five games and were shut out twice. The Brewers have scored all of 12 runs in their last four games. Expect this to be a low-scoring opener with Bauer pitching for Cincy. He has a 0.68 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in four starts, placing him among the very best starters in the league. Bauer has allowed just two runs so far and has worked 26 ⅓ innings. On August 7th, he held Milwaukee to one run and three hits in six innings and had 12 strikeouts. Milwaukee’s Brett Anderson hasn’t been nearly as dominant, but he’s allowed no more than two earned runs in any of his four starts in 2020. With two struggling lineups and Bauer starting this should be quite the easy Under. Play on UNDER AAA | |||||||
08-24-20 | Bucks -13.5 v. Magic | Top | 121-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* on MILWAUKEE While Orlando did pull the upset in Game One, things have quickly (and predictably) swung in Milwaukee’s favor in this series. Now the top-seeded Bucks can take a commanding 3-1 series advantage and there’s really no doubt in our minds that will happen. They are of course big favorites to beat the Magic in Game Four Monday afternoon and why wouldn’t they be? The last two games have seen them hold halftime advantages of 21 and 27 points. The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game Three, an uber-efficient performance where Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 35 pts on 12 of 14 shooting. The Magic are short-handed and have covered only 4 of their last 17 games vs. teams with a winning record. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS when leading in a playoff series and while this is a lot of points to lay, they are just that much better than their opponents here. This series likely ends in five games and Milwaukee will win big today. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $868 |
Will Rogers | $491 |
William Burns | $415 |
Nick Parsons | $345 |
Joseph D'Amico | $282 |
Ross Benjamin | $255 |
Sean Murphy | $226 |
Tom Macrina | $149 |
Joey Tron | $113 |
ProSportsPicks | $107 |