Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
06-02-19 | Marlins v. Padres -177 | Top | 9-3 | Loss | -177 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
This is a 7* Play on SAN DIEGO San Diego should win very easily here. They did lose Saturday's game, 9-3, to fall to .500 at home for the season. But Miami, despite going 10-5 its last 15 games, could only wish it was even sniffing .500. The Marlins are still only 20-36 and have scored the fewest runs in all of baseball. We like Strahm, who starts today for the Padres. After giving up five runs in his first start of the year, he hasn't given up more than three in any of the last nine. His last one, which was against the Yankees, saw him allow all three in just one inning. He has a 2.53 ERA those last nine starts with an opponents batting average of .220. Trevor Richards, the starter today for Miami, is on a somewhat similar trajectory with three consecutive quality starts. But he'd been winless before that with a 4.46 ERA. Not to mention, the Marlins lost his first eight starts this season! They are still 1-9 his last 10 road starts. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA | |||||||
06-02-19 | Astros v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Houston-Oakland After winning with the Under in this matchup on Friday, we made the mistake of going with the Over last night. Houston's lineup did its job, scoring five runs, but Justin Verlander proved to be too tough for the Oakland hitters as he held them to just one run (a solo HR) over eight innings. Let's then go back to the Under today. This, even though Khris Davis returned Saturday for Oakland. He's their best hitter, but not enough alone to overcome Gerritt Cole, who silenced the Cubs in his last start. He held the Cubbies to just two runs and three hits, also finishing with 12 strikeouts. Cole, a native Californian, is 10-3 all-time pitching in the Sunshine State (including 2-0 here). Let'ss not forget Houston is without several big names in its every day lineup too, such as Correa, Altuve and Springer. That'll make the job easier here for Oakland starter Chris Bassit, who already has a 2.81 career ERA vs. the Astros. A quick note on the A's hitters here. Their only three runs in this series have all come on solo home runs. Davis was 0 for 4 in his return yesterday. Play UNDER Houston-Oakland AAA | |||||||
06-01-19 | Mets v. Diamondbacks OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 101 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Mets-Arizona With deGrom vs. Greinke, the automatic response is to take the Under. But with deGrom that would be a bad move as his last three starts have all gone Over. Not all of that is his doing mind you, but it is certainly worth bringing to light. Arizona is stuck in a five-game losing streak, but all but one loss was by one run. Greinke has come out on the short end of two one-run decisions his last two starts and the Diamondbacks are actually only 1-4 the last five times he's started. The one win was the last time he pitched at home when they scored 11 runs. While unlikely to get that many tonight, this is a lineup averaging 5.2 runs/game for the year. With the pitching matchup, the oddsmakers obviously going to set a low total, but it's too low in our eyes as the Over is 6-1 the last seven times the Mets have been off a win. The Over is also 6-2 in Greinke's last eight starts at home. Play OVER NY Mets-Arizona AAA | |||||||
06-01-19 | Astros v. A's OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Houston-Oakland We went with the Under in this same matchup yesterday, so why the switch today? Justin Verlander is pitching for the Astros, so he should take care of business, right? Maybe as he's yet to allow more than four runs in any start this year and has allowed no more than 1 eight times. But we also think it's time for this Houston lineup to explode. They've only scored four runs total the last two games. They are averaging more than five per game for the season. Sure the lineup is without some key players right now (Correa, Springer). However, Brett Anderson (starting for Oakland) has a 6.97 ERA in five previous starts vs. the Astros. But the biggest reason we are switching gears here is that the A's should have Khris Davis back in their lineup. That's a gamechanger and their offense should wake up too. The A's previous series (vs. the Angels) was all Overs. Play OVER Houston-Oakland AAA | |||||||
06-01-19 | Bruins v. Blues -111 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -111 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS The Blues should feel happy that the escaped Boston with a two-game split. Honestly, they probably feel like they could be up 2-0 as Game #1 did see them take an early two-goal advantage. Game #2 went to overtime with Carl Gunnnarsson providing the game-winner on a delayed penalty. Not sure if the extra day of rest benefits either team here, but we like St. Louis to capture Game #3 at home. Sure, Boston is 6-2 on the road this postseason, winning their last four away games. St. Louis has actually not been a dominant home team, though all three prior series were closed out at the Enterprise Center. All things considered, this is a pretty cheap price on the Blues at home too. They are 18-7 their L25 games as a home favorite, so the the odds are in their favor there. With the price coming down, we say grab the Blues. Play ST. LOUIS AAA | |||||||
06-01-19 | Nationals v. Reds OVER 10 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Washington-Cincinnati Safe to say, not many expected the Reds to be better than the Nationals this season. But that's the case entering June as Cincy has the better record. Both teams have losing records mind you, but the Reds have played a lot better than you might think. They've allowed the fewest number of runs among National League teams while Washington is near the very bottom of that list. Yesterday saw the Reds deliver a 9-3 win. It was the 8th time in the last 9 games they finished with 10 or more hits. Their offense is really heating up right now as they've scored at least six runs in 7 of those last 9 games. Tanner Roark will start for them today and he really isn't one of the bigger reasons the Reds have allowed so few runs. He did just hold the Cubs scoreless for five innings in his last start, but his WHIP is above 1.40 this season. Washington is his former team and quite frankly Roark never did really pitch well for them. Speaking of not pitching well, the Nationals are starting Erick Fedde and he has a 5.42 ERA in 21 big league appearances, 16 of them starts. He's made just two starts so far in 2019. Both went pretty well, but were against weak offenses. The Over is 5-0 his last 5 starts overall. Play OVER Washington-Cincinnati AAA | |||||||
05-31-19 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Houston-Oakland This figures to be a low-scoring affair as the Astros travel to Oakland to face the Athletics. The A's are in off a high-scoring series vs. the Angels where the Over cashed in all three games. But it's a much better pitching staff that they'll be facing this weekend, starting with Brad Peacock, who has a 0.56 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in his previous three trips to the mound. Peacock has allowed one run or fewer in five of the last six starts, the lone exception coming against a Minnesota team that has the top scoring lineup in baseball. Peacock's last four starts have yielded just one run in 23 innings! Not to be outdone, Michael Fiers of Oakland has also been great of late. He's got a 1.80 ERA and 0.60 WHIP his last three starts, which includes a no-hitter! Fiers has allowed no more than three runs in five consecutive trips to the mound. This shapes up to be a good old fashioned pitchers duel. Play UNDER Houston-Oakland AAA | |||||||
05-31-19 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Cleveland-Chicago Trevor Bauer has been shockingly bad for the Indians recently while Dylan Covey has yet to pitch well for the White Sox. Given how last night's game between the two teams went (Chicago won 10-4), the Over seems like a very logical call for Friday. Cleveland has gone Over in five straight going back to Sunday and it had just scored 14 runs on a season-high 18 hits the game before this series got underway. Chicago is riding a season-best four-game win streak and has totaled 18 runs the last two days. Bauer has a 7.41 ERA his past three starts and has given up 29 runs in his last six starts. Covey may have seen the Under hit in each of his last four starts, but his ERA is 5.75 in that time and he allowed four runs in three of those starts. In their last four games, Cleveland has allowed 36 runs the last four games. Play OVER Cleveland-Chicago AAA | |||||||
05-30-19 | Mets v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Mets-Dodgers It was a downright BRUTAL loss for the Mets last night as they blew an 8-3 lead and lost 9-8 to the Dodgers. LA scored six of its runs in the final three innings, four of them coming in the ninth. The teams combined for 61 total bases in the game, which is a lot. Unlike yesterday, the Mets won't have Noah Syndergaard starting tonight. Instead it will be Jason Vargas who has pitched poorly on the road. He has a 6.75 ERA and 1.73 WHIP. The Dodgers have been just awesome offensively, scoring 5.8 runs/game at home (for the season) and 7.1 runs/game the last seven days. They are the NL's highest scoring team. The trick here will be the Mets getting some runs against Hyun-Jin Ryu. Ryu has been tremendous in 2019, never allowing more than two runs in any start! He's allowed only two total in his last four starts. But three of those four still went Over (thanks Dodgers offense!) and the Mets are averaging more than six runs per game over the last week themselves. Play OVER Mets-Dodgers AAA | |||||||
05-30-19 | Warriors v. Raptors UNDER 214 | Top | 109-118 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Golden State-Toronto The Raptors have played unbelievable defense on their way to the NBA Finals. They are giving up less than 100 PPG in the playoffs. In cashing the Under in each of the last two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, we talked extensively about this. At home, they are giving up slightly less than 96 PPG and it is the Raptors that have the home court advantage in this series. There have been just seven games in the playoffs where Toronto allowed more than 100 points, one was a double overtime game. Take that away and there are only three times they've allowed more than 108. Golden State has plenty of firepower, but will be without Kevin Durant for Game #1. Holding the Bucks in check was a very good sign for the Raptors as the Bucks averaged more points per game than the Warriors. Golden State has given up less than 100 in three of its last six games. In their only regular season visit to Canada, they only scored 93 points though (lost by 20). Play UNDER Golden State-Toronto AAA | |||||||
05-29-19 | Cardinals v. Phillies OVER 10.5 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER St. Louis-Philadelphia These teams combined to score seven runs in the first four innings yesterday, but after that it was all zeroes on the scoreboard. The Phillies won 4-3, their 8th win in the last 11 games as they continue to pace the NL East. St. Louis has been a moderate disappointment (1 game under .500), though right now the city's bigger concern lies with the Blues. Still, a 7-17 WL record this month definitely isn't good. Despite what we saw Tuesday, both bullpens can be shaky. The Cardinals blew a game in spectacular fashion Sunday night against Atlanta while the Phillies relivers were hardly stellar in the last series (vs. Milwaukee). Starting here for the home team will be Aaron Nola. The Over is 9-2 in his 11 outings as he started the season pretty poorly. He's settled down his last few times on the mound, but his WHIP is still 1.75 over the last three trips. The Over has cashed each of the last six times Nola has started on five or more days rest. He last pitched on Thursday. St. Louis is going with Genesis Cabrera, who is taking Michael Wacha's spot in the rotation for his big league debut. But it's not like Cabrera was dominant down in the minors as he had a 6.35 ERA at Triple-A Memphis. Play OVER St. Louis-Philadelphia AAA | |||||||
05-29-19 | Blues v. Bruins -160 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on BOSTON The Bruins stormed back from an early two goal deficit to take Game 1, but the team's 8th straight victory was by no means easy. They didn't take the lead until 5:21 into the third period and the final goal came on an empty net (costing us the Over). But one positive sign is they did outshoot the Blues 38-20. Blowing a two-goal lead on the road is a missed opportunity and it's the kind of advantage St. Louis is quite unlikely to enjoy again. Boston is 11-2 its last 13 games and only three of those wins (two in Round 2 vs. Columbus) have been by less than a two-goal margin. They're on an incredible 21-5 run when off a game where they allowed two or less goals. Rookie goaltender Jordan Binnington has been great for St. Louis, but is likely to be outplayed again by Tuukka Rask, whose save percentage for the playoffs now sits at a remarkable .940. Play on BOSTON AAA | |||||||
05-29-19 | Indians v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 14-9 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Cleveland-Boston For Cleveland, it was a case of "good things come to those who wait." They sat out a 1+ hr rain delay last night in Boston and rallied late for a 7-5 victory. They hadn't scored at all prior to the eighth inning and then the bottom of the order delivered a stunning five-run rally in the ninth to win. We had the Over in Monday's game (won 14-5 by the Red Sox), so the Over is 2 for 2 so far in this series. Today it's time to go the other way however as Shane Bieber should certainly keep the Indians competitive while Ryan Weber was certainly impressive in his 1st big league start for the Red Sox. Bieber has 25 strikeouts in the last two starts alone, which have seen him allow only one run in 14 innings. He has a 0.99 WHIP on the road. As alluded to, Weber's debut in the starter's role couldn't have gone any better as he held Toronto to one run and three hits. Let's not forget Cleveland came into this series having scored three runs or less in six straight games. The Under is 6-0 in Bieber's last six starts. Play UNDER Cleveland-Boston AAA | |||||||
05-28-19 | Rangers v. Mariners -150 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -150 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SEATTLE Texas made a pitching change overnight as it will now be Jesse Chavez starting, but that should hardly matter against a Seattle team that beat them, 6-2, last night. May has been a bad month for the Mariners but they have a chance to end it on a positive note facing a team they have some major revenge to exact upon. Before last night's games, Texas had beaten them five straight times. But that's now a thing of the past as Seattle rediscovered an offense that started out the season so hot. The Mariners still average 5.1 runs/game. Something that must be considered is that while Chavez will be "opening" this game for the Rangers, Seattle will still get to face originally scheduled starter Adrian Sampson, who has a 7.66 ERA this year. Sampson should come in quickly (after an inning or two) following Chavez. The Mariners go with Gonzales, who started the year 5-0. Despite a slide, he still has decent numbers and two starts against the Rangers have seen him give up only two runs in 14 innings. Play on SEATTLE AAA | |||||||
05-28-19 | Giants v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -106 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER San Francisco-Miami The Giants and the Marlins have the two worst records in the National League and should already both be considered non-contenders at this points in the season. The Giants bring up the rear in the NL West while the Marlins do the same in the East. Miami's played better of late (7-3 L10) while San Fran has lost five in a row and is coming off what manager Bruce Bochy called "their worst series of the season" as they were swept at home by Arizona and outscored 34-8 in the process. But the Marlins still have scored fewer runs than every other team making it ideal that the G-men are sending out Jeff Samardzija (lowest ERA among team's starting pitchers) today. Samardzija has allowed more than three earned runs only twice this year (10 starts) and never more than four. Miami goes with Trevor Richards, who has pitched better at home than on the road. So it was a really positive sign that Richards allowed just one run in his last start, which came at Detroit. We don't look for either team to score much here. Play UNDER San Francisco-Miami AAA | |||||||
05-27-19 | Rangers v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Texas-Seattle These teams just played a three-game series last week in Arlington. As we wrote back then, "a matchup between these teams should almost be an automatic green light to take the Over." Little has changed then to sway our opinion. Yes, two of the three games in that series did stay Under (we won the Over in the opener though) and seven of Seattle's last nine games have stayed Under as well. But that's just some predictable "leveling off" as they are still 36-16-3 Over in all games, the top Over record in baseball. Yesterday's game, when we went against them (10* Game of the Week winner on the Angels) went Over as the final score was 7-6. Now the Mariners are back home where they're giving up 6.5 runs per game. Texas is giving up 5.6 runs per game on the road. Both teams average more than 5.0 runs per game with the Rangers averaging 5.7, which is second most overall. We don't like either starter's chances tonight as this will be the third time Seattle has faced Lance Lynn and second in a week. Same with Texas against Tommy Milone. Both bullpens have ERA's above 5.00. Play OVER Texas-Seattle AAA | |||||||
05-27-19 | Mets v. Dodgers UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Mets-Dodgers Runs should be scarce here with a pitching matchup of deGrom vs. Kershaw. The former continues to have some poor luck (dating back to last season), but he happened to outduel Max Scherzer last week in a 6-1 win over Washington. DeGrom gave up just one run (a solo HR) and two hits. That was a game where the Mets - now winners of six of their last seven - scored all of their runs in the bottom of the eighth. As for Kershaw, after missing the first few weeks of the season (injured), he has returned as his usual dominant self. The Dodgers have won all seven of his starts and he's posted a 0.98 WHIP. The home team has the edge here due to the game being at Chavez Ravine where they sport a 19-6 record and allow only 3.3 runs/game. The Mets offense usually isn't very good on the road and Kershaw is 8-0 all-time against them (13 starts) with a 1.98 ERA. The Under has also hit the last four times deGrom has pitched in this park. Play UNDER Mets-Dodgers AAA | |||||||
05-27-19 | Blues v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -140 | 22 h 52 m | Show |
This is a 10* UNDER play on St. Louis-Boston Give credit to St. Louis. They easily could have folded after the controversial "hand pass loss" to San Jose in Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. Instead they wound up outscoring the Sharks 12-2 the rest of the way and took the series in six games. The Blues have played very well on the road in the playoffs and have won 8 of their last 11 visits to Boston. The Bruins, who are coming off a long layoff, have lost four times at home in the playoffs. But they have also won the last two Game 1's while St. Louis has lost their last two. Our nod is to the Under here as both teams have goaltenders playing superbly. Jordan Binnington for St. Louis has stopped 75 of the last 77 shots he's seen. Boston's Tuukka Rask has been even better as he stopped 109 of the 114 shots he saw in the four-game sweep of Carolina and has a .942 save percentage in the postseason. The Under is 7-3 in Boston's last 10 games. Play UNDER St. Louis-Boston AAA | |||||||
05-27-19 | Indians v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cleveland-Boston The Indians are off a dreadful homestand, one in which they finished just 3-7 and two of the wins came against last place Baltimore. Unfortunately, the job gets no easier for the Tribe as they now have to visit Fenway Park for Memorial Day. After their own awful start to the year, the Red Sox have actually surged past Cleveland for the AL's second Wild Card spot, but obviously there's still a long way to go. Today's game should be a lot higher scoring than usual, especially from the Cleveland perspective, as neither team will be sending its best pitcher to the mound. While the Under is 6-0 in starts made by the Indians' Jefry Rodriguez this season, that's generally been due to poor run support. Rodriguez has a 4.07 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, subpar numbers, and allowed nine runs in his last two starts. Boston goes with Porcello and while he's pitched better of late, he's still given up at least one HR in all but two starts. The Over is 8-2 when Porcello pitches. The Red Sox just got done playing three low-scoring games (all Unders) in Houston, but they average 5.6 runs/game at Fenway. Play OVER Cleveland-Boston AAA | |||||||
05-26-19 | Rangers v. Angels -150 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the LA ANGELS The Angels haven't been very good this season, but we've had a somewhat bizarre ability to call for them to win at the right times. Often, it's been in the final game of a series, at home, when they're looking to avoid getting swept. That's not quite the case today as they did win yesterday, beating Texas 3-2, and now have a chance to take the series. We like them to do so as this is probably a good time to sell high on a Rangers team that had previously won 8 out of its last 9. But we don't think the Rangers are going to be particularly good this year and their offense hasn't done much in recent days. Plus they send a spot starter (Ariel Jurado) to the mound today. The Angels, fresh off a walk-off win, go with Andrew Heaney. This is Heaney's 1st start of the year due to elbow issues. But he looked great in a rehab start down on the farm (Triple-A), striking out 10 in just 4 1/3 innings. He led the team in innings pitched last year and the Angels have won seven of his last nine home starts. Mike Trout has not done much at the plate lately (3 of 18 last five games), but should break out of that slump today. Play on LA ANGELS AAA | |||||||
05-26-19 | Orioles v. Rockies OVER 11.5 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Baltimore-Colorado It almost seems unfair to stick this terrible Orioles pitching staff in Coors Field. No staff has given up more runs per game (6.1) than Baltimore's and Coors is once again shaping up to be the highest scoring venue in either league. The Rockies are tied for the MLB lead, averaging 6.0 runs/game at home. But they are also dead last in runs allowed at home, giving up 7.0/game. One of the more culpable starters on the Orioles staff has been David Hess, who goes today. Hess has 7.06 ERA in eight starts (6-2 Over) and just allowed nine runs total and three home runs the last time he pitched. We like Rockies starter German Marquez, but even he is not immune to the "Coors effect." He has a 5.34 ERA and 1.67 WHIP at home, which is way up from his numbers on the road (2.08, 0.74). Baltimore's last six games have all gone Over and before that they gave up 10 runs in a shutout loss. It figures to be another very high scoring affair today in Denver where the Over is 10-1 the last 11 games. Play Over Baltimore-Colorado AAA | |||||||
05-25-19 | Dodgers -170 v. Pirates | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on the LA DODGERS The Dodgers beat the Pirates 10-2 on Friday and should continue to roll here behind Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has been absolutely on fire of late. In his last three starts, Ryu has a 0.00 ERA and 0.50 WHIP as he's thrown 24 scoreless innings with 20 strikeouts against only two walks. Ryu hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his nine starts this season! He'll face a slumping Pirates team that has looked rather lifeless this week, save for a 14-6 win over Colorado on Thursday. But they got drilled in the first two games of that series as the starting pitching situation here has gotten somewhat dire (due to injuries). They've had to use an opener three times this week, including last night. Here it'll be Joe Musgrove, a regular member of the rotation, but it's not like he's pitched well lately. He's allowed 19 runs in his last 19 innings pitched. The Dodgers have dominated the Pirates through the years, outscoring them 119-56 the last three seasons while going 15-2 overall. That includes a 5-0 record with Ryu on the mound. Play on LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
05-25-19 | Bucks +2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 94-100 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE The Bucks find themselves facing elimination tonight, which is certainly NOT a position they expected to be in after taking the first two games of the series. But they were a little lucky to win Game #1 remember (outscored Toronto 32-17 in 4th Quarter) and definitely lucky to cover. They rolled to a wire-to-wire 125-103 win and cover in Game #2, but then basically never led in either game in Toronto (even though Game #3 went to double overtime). Things figured to return to normal in Game #5, which was back at home, and they did look good early with Milwaukee taking an early 12-point lead. But then it was the Raptors turn to pull off an impressive comeback as they held the Bucks to just 67 points over the last three quarters. After the home team started the series 4-0 SU/ATS, not many are going to expect the road team to win two straight. But we wouldn't make the mistake of giving up on the Bucks, who we still feel are the better team and are also a perfect 9-0 against the spread this season on the road when coming off a straight up loss as a favorite. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
05-25-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 212 | Top | 94-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Bucks-Raptors We were all over the Under in the last game, which was our *10* NBA Total of the Year. It cashed by double digits and that wasn't a surprise to us at all. But what did catch most by surprise was the fact Toronto won the game 105-99. The Raptors have now taken the last three straight games and have a chance to eliminate Milwaukee tonight. It figures to be another low-scoring affair considering the defense both teams are capable of playing. The Raptors are allowing just under 100 points/game in the playoffs and at home they're allowing an even 96 points/game. Remember though that number would be even lower if not for the 2 OT game earlier in this series where they held the Bucks to ... 96 points in regulation. Milwaukee led the league in defensive efficiency in the regular season and only two times in the entire playoffs have they allowed a field goal percentage above 43.2! The Under had been 14-4 when the Bucks were off a SU loss coming into this series. Play UNDER Milwaukee-Toronto AAA | |||||||
05-25-19 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Seattle-Oakland Let's try this again. Seattle & Oakland failed to go Over yesterday (as we'd predicted them to) and that makes it three straight Unders for the Mariners, which is actually unprecedented this season. In a year where they are 35-15-3 in all games, at no point have the Mariners gone Under in three straight ... until now. Yesterday was actually just the second time they'd come in off two straight Unders! They still lost for a 4th straight time last night, 6-2, increasing their MLB-worst runs allowed to 315 for the season. Despite 10 hits, they could only manage two runs. Today should be a higher-scoring affair. While A's pitcher Michael Fiers' recent numbers are strong, thanks to a no-hitter he tossed against Cincinnati on May 7th, he still carries an overall ERA of 5.21. He has a 6.36 ERA in 10 previous starts vs. Seattle, which includes a 6-5 loss in his last start. Oakland is averaging 7.4 runs/game during its seven-game win streak and should again find success vs. Seattle's Kikuchi, whom they homered three times off of back on May 13th. Kikuchi's last three starts have all gone Over. Play OVER Seattle-Oakland AAA | |||||||
05-24-19 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 9 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Texas-LA Angels Very different is how the last series went for these AL West teams. Texas swept Seattle (at home), making it seven wins in the past eight games. Los Angeles was swept (at home) by Minnesota. They've lost 6 of 8. But it's a break for the Angels on Friday, at least for the hitters, going against Drew Smyly. The Rangers starting pitcher has a 6.26 ERA and 1.74 WHIP and those numbers get downright ugly on the road (10.81 ERA, 2.70 WHIP). Granted, it was just one start. But Smyly's overall body of work tells us not to expect a quality start. He's actually yet to deliver one of those as he hasn't pitched longer than five innings in any start. The Angels Griffin Canning is off the best of his four starts so far, seven shutout innings of three-hit ball, but that was against Kansas City. Texas is averaging 5.8 runs/game, second most in baseball. But they also are giving up 5.5 runs/game. Angels home games have been pretty high scoring too as they average 5.3 runs per game but also give up 5.1. The Over is 20-6-1 following an off day for the Rangers. Play OVER Texas-LA Angels AAA | |||||||
05-24-19 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -104 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Oakland It is pretty crazy to think the Mariners started the season by winning 13 of their first 15 games. Since then, no team has a worse record. It's been 27 losses in the last 37 games for Seattle as they were just swept by Texas. Given how hot Oakland has been (six straight wins), the weekend doesn't exactly shape up nicely. Seattle is now giving up 5.9 runs per game. That's second most overall. The last seven games have seen that number skyrocket to 8.1 per game. Over the same time, the A's are scoring 7.0 runs per game. Starting for Seattle, Wade LeBlanc does not appear to be the man fit for the job tonight. He has a 7.36 ERA and 1.91 WHIP and good for us is that all four starts have gone Over. They haven't just gone Over, they've flown Over with an average of almost 19 total runs per game scored! The A's are starting Mengden, whose only other home start yielded four runs in 5 1/3 innings. Seattle can still score. They are averaging 5.7 runs per game on the road. The Over is 35-14-3 in all of their games. Play OVER Seattle-Oakland AAA | |||||||
05-24-19 | Braves v. Cardinals OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Atlanta-St. Louis Atlanta has played well of late, winning seven of nine. They wrapped up a 4-game series in San Francisco (won 3 of 4) yesterday by winning 5-4. St. Louis did not play Thursday and has won just three times in its previous nine games. But at home, we expect the Cardinals bats to "wake up" today, much in the same way they did the last time they faced Atlanta. These teams just played down in Atlanta last week and the Cards opened that series by scoring 14 runs in the opener. They did so mostly at the expense of the same pitcher they'll see today, Mike Foltynewicz, who has struggled mightily since returning from injury. Foltynewicz gave up eight runs in that last start vs. St. Louis and has an 0-5 team start record with a 6.91 ERA. The Cardinals go with Mikolas, who has pitched well at home, but has also lost his last two starts. His last one was a real disaster as he failed to get out of the second inning before allowing seven runs. The Over is 3-0-1 the last four times St. Louis had the previous day off. Play OVER Atlanta-St. Louis AAA | |||||||
05-24-19 | Rays v. Indians UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Tampa Bay-Cleveland We had the Over on this matchup yesterday. The Rays won 7-2, getting four home runs and one of them (an inside the park job) was pretty indicative of how Cleveland has played of late. The inside the park HR, the first allowed by the Indians since '08, saw two outfielders collide. Three runs scored and it was pretty much over from there. It was the Indians 4th straight loss, all of them coming here at Progressive Field. Perhaps even more embarrassing is that they could do little against Rays "opener" Ryan Yarbrough, who wound up going a career-high 7 1/3 innings as Indians hitters were totally ineffective. Par for the course we're afraid as the Tribe are near the bottom of the American League in runs scored. Today they have to face Blake Snell, which likely means another tough night at the plate. Snell, last year's Cy Young winner, has a 1.53 ERA and 0.79 WHIP his last three times out. Tampa Bay doesn't figure to score as many here either as they won't get the gift that was the three-run inside-the-park HR. Their hitters also have to contend with Shane Bieber, who has a sub 1.00 WHIP on the year. Bieber went the distance in his last start, striking out 15 and allowing only five hits. Play UNDER Tampa Bay-Cleveland AAA | |||||||
05-23-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 105-99 | Win | 100 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Toronto-Milwaukee The last three games of this series have all gone Over. Game #3 shouldn't have of course (2 OT's), but that's all water under the bridge now. The series is even at two games each as the home team has gone a perfect 4-0 straight up and against the spread. Milwaukee should probably feel a little fortunate in that - save for Game #2 - they've been trailing most of the way. They were blown out in Game #4, 120-102, which was the most points allowed in any game by the Bucks this entire playoffs (yes, even the 2 OT game). Now we head to back to Milwaukee though. The Bucks have played seven home games in the playoffs. They've allowed more than 103 points only once. Let us not forget that this was the #1 team in defensive efficiency during the regular season as well. Toronto is also more than capable of turning it on defensively. In the first two rounds there were only three three games where they surrendered more than 100 points. Milwaukee may have topped 100 in all four games in this series, but the Raptors can still slow them down. Problem is Kawhi Leonard is hurt, they averaged just 101.5 points the first two games in Milwaukee and the bench isn't going to shoot as well here as it did in Game #4. Powell-Ibaka-Van Vleet went 18 of 36 for 48 points. A repeat of that will not happen on the road. The Under has cashed 13 of the last 19 times the Bucks have been off a loss. It has also cashed 5 of the last 7 times Toronto has been off a win by 10 or more points. Play UNDER Toronto-Milwaukee AAA | |||||||
05-23-19 | Rays v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Tampa Bay-Cleveland Cleveland catches a major break here in that Tampa Bay decided to push Blake Snell's start back a day. Snell is probably the last pitcher the Indians would want to see, given their current ineptitude at the plate. They should have more luck against Rays "opener" Ryan Yarbrough, who is being recalled from Triple A to pitch Thursday. While Yarbrough has looked good "down on the farm," that hasn't been the case here in the big show where he has an 8.10 ERA in five prior relief appearances. We had the Over in Cleveland's game yesterday (vs. the A's) and despite them allowing seven runs, it still stayed Under by half a run. Again, the Indians' offense should be more productive today. But the Rays figure to give Cleveland more of a problem than Oakland just did. The A's scored 18 runs in a three-game sweep here at Progressive Field and the Rays are coming off a game where they put eight on the board against the Dodgers (no DH). Tampa's last three games have all gone Over and while they face a pitcher (Adam Plutko) that allowed only one hit in his 2019 debut, it was a home run. Play OVER Tampa Bay-Cleveland AAA | |||||||
05-23-19 | Marlins v. Tigers -147 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -147 | 6 h 57 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on DETROIT The Tigers continue to dig themselves an even deeper hole on what has been an absolutely dreadful homestand. That homestand ends today and they enter the finale with Miami on an eight-game losing streak, all of those games here at Comerica Park. While they were outscored 24-6 in three games by Houston and 28-6 in three games by Oakland, losing twice here to Miami just might be the official "low point" of the 2019 campaign. The Marlins, who have now won five straight and are going for a second straight sweep, nevertheless have the worst record in the whole National League. They have scored 24 fewer runs than the Tigers this season as these are the two lowest scoring teams in all of baseball. We believe the home team is going to come in highly motivated today as it looks to avoid a winless homestand. They did lead 3-0 (after three innings) yesterday. Hope comes in the form of Matthew Boyd for today as he has a 3.41 ERA and 1.01 WHIP on the year. He's been the team's most reliable starter. His last start was the first time this season that he allowed more than three earned runs (he allowed four). We give him the nod over Miami's Trevor Richards, who just won for the first time all year and has a 1-8 team start record. This will be just the second time the Tigers are higher than -125 on the money line. They won the first. The Marlins are 1-9 as a road underdog of +125 to +175. Play on DETROIT AAA | |||||||
05-22-19 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Cincinnati-Milwaukee The Reds and Brewers went Under again on Tuesday. We use the term "again" because it was the eighth straight meeting to do so, going back to last season. But this time (meaning Tuesday), the Reds won, 3-0. It was Cincy's first win over Milwaukee this season after being swept at home back in early April. It was also their MLB leading seventh shutout. But the first time all season the Brewers were shutout comes with a caveat as they were without Christian Yelich (back spasms). His absence resulted in the team being unable to get any runner past second base the entire game. Now we realize that today's pitching matchup hardly seems like the one to break the trend of Unders when these teams meet. Cincy's Castillo has a 1.90 ERA while Milwaukee's Davies has a 1.54 ERA. The Under has gone a combined 16-3 in their 19 starts. But, with or without Yelich, I'll call for the Brewers to have a bounce back game at the plate. The Over is 10-3-1 the last 14 times they've been off a game where they scored two runs or less. Castillo is 11-5 Over the last 16 times he's started on five days rest. Play OVER Cincinnati-Milwaukee AAA | |||||||
05-22-19 | A's v. Indians OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on OVER Oakland-Cleveland The Indians have dropped to 1-5 vs. the A's this season after taking back to back losses to open this series. One would have thought this might be a golden opportunity for the Tribe to get some revenge for dropping two of three in Oakland earlier this month as they had Carlos Carrasco and Trevor Bauer start the first two games. But that has obviously not been the case. The A's, now winners of five straight, have scored 39 runs during the course of that win streak. They figure to score plenty more today against the weakest of the three Cleveland starters they'll have faced in the series, Jefry Rodriguez, who just allowed season-highs in both runs and home runs allowed in his previous start. Frankie Montas pitches here for the A's. While he looked good his last time out, that was due to facing a very weak Tigers lineup. The Over is 12-1 in Oakland's previous 13 Wednesday games. Play OVER Oakland-Cleveland AAA | |||||||
05-21-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -118 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Arizona-San Diego So the Diamondbacks and Padres failed to go Over yesterday as we predicted they would. It was another pitcher's duel between Luke Weaver and Chris Paddack with the Padres winning 2-1. But tonight's game has an even lower total and a slightly less attractive pitching matchup. Sure, Zack Greinke is involved for Arizona, but he has a 4.08 ERA on the road. He also had to leave his last start with an abdominal strain. While the injury is being downplayed, let's see how he performs moving forward. San Diego's offense may not have done much in recent days and Greinke has given them plenty of trouble through the years. But the Over is 6-0 in Greinke's last six division starts. It's also 5-2 his last seven starts vs. the Padres. San Diego will go with Strahm, who has seen his ERA lowered in six of his last seven starts. He's not allowed more than two runs in any of those seven starts, but he still has a home ERA above 4.00 and his worst start to date came against Arizona, who scored five times off him in just 2 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks are averaging 5.4 runs/game on the road. Play OVER Arizona-San Diego AAA | |||||||
05-21-19 | Bucks -2.5 v. Raptors | Top | 102-120 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on MILWAUKEE Milwaukee has turned in one dominant game in the Eastern Conference Finals (Game 2), but mostly trailed in the other two, so in some regards they should feel fortunate to be up in the series. They did have a golden opportunity to "steal one" on the road Sunday, which would have given them an insurmountable 3-0 series lead, but they ultimately lost in double overtime. With Golden State having swept its way into the NBA Finals, there's a little bit of pressure on the Bucks now to end this series quickly. We should obviously not discount the Raptors, but a win here by the Bucks and this series goes back to Milwaukee for Game 5 with a chance to close it out. Defensively, Milwaukee continues to do a great job as it is allowing less than 40% shooting for the entire playoffs. Perhaps even more impressive is their 21-5 ATS record coming off a SU loss. They are the better team here. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
05-21-19 | Sharks v. Blues -158 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
This is a 10* on ST. LOUIS St. Louis has not been a dominant home team in these playoffs by any means. In fact, they are just 4-5 straight up at the Enterprise Center. That's a surprise seeing as they ended the regular season on a 14-2 streak in home games. But what they have done is close out both previous series at home. They'll have a chance to make it 3 for 3 as they host San Jose in Game #6 of the Western Conference Finals Tuesday. The Blues have to be feeling good about themselves right now after taking three of the last four games in this series. Had there not been a missed call in overtime of Game 3, this series might very well already be over. Game #5 was easily the most one sided affair of the series with St. Louis going to San Jose and delivering a 5-0 shutout. Adding injury to insult, the Sharks lost two key players in that game, Tomas Hertl and Joe Pavelski. Erik Karlsson, having suffered an injury in Game 4, also did not finish the last game. All three may not play Tuesday. The loss of Hertl would be particularly costly as he is #3 overall in goals scored this postseason. The Blues are 7-1 SU following the last eight games they scored 5+ goals. They move onto the Stanley Cup Finals. Play on ST LOUIS AAA | |||||||
05-21-19 | Nationals v. Mets UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-NY Mets You'd be hard-pressed to find two more disappointing teams in either league than the Mets and Nationals. By rule, someone had to win yesterday's game and it was the Mets doing so by a score of 5-3. Of course, one team will prevail again today, but the better bet is on the Under as neither team is doing much hitting lately, the Mets especially. They had been shutout in consecutive games (by Miami!) coming into this series and are hitting .206 over the last week. Even worse is that in those two shutout losses to Miami, they managed only three hits. They'd lost five in a row overall before yesterday. Washington has scored more than five runs only twice in its last 10 games. Erick Fedde is starting here only because of an injury to Anibal Sanchez. He did allow four runs (in relief of Sanchez) last week to the Mets, but should be better here. Again he'll face Zack Wheeler, who didn't exactly pitch well last Thursday either. But before that he'd tossed five quality starts in six tries. Play UNDER Washington-NY Mets AAA | |||||||
05-20-19 | Diamondbacks v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Arizona-San Diego Arizona is a team you probably don't hear about all that often, but they have managed to stay above .500 and are still in a good spot, despite suffering back to back losses. We had the Under in Sunday's game vs. the Giants, which was a 3-2 loss that went 10 innings. So you may be surprised to see that we're going Over in Monday's matchup with San Diego, which - on paper - would seem more conducive to an Under play. But the number is too low here. Padres starter Chris Paddack has been very good in his rookie year, guiding the team to a 6-2 record when he's on the mound and doing so with a 1.99 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. But he's off his worst start to date as he allowed six runs in just 4 2/3 innings to the Dodgers. San Diego is off three straight losses to Pittsburgh here at home and all three games went Over. The Diamondbacks go with Luke Weaver for this series opener and like Paddack he's pitched well. It was a 2-1 game when Weaver and Paddack met back in April, but the total there was 8.0. Arizona averages 5.6 runs/game on the road and the Over has cashed in 11 of their last 15 series openers. Plus, it is 12-4-1 their last 17 division games. Play OVER Arizona-San Diego AAA | |||||||
05-20-19 | Warriors -3.5 v. Blazers | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on GOLDEN STATE The Warriors broke the hearts of the Blazers with a come from behind victory in Game #2 and they may very well have broken their spirit by doing the same in Game #3. Both instances saw the reigning champs battle back from a double digit halftime deficit. Blowing leads like that - in consecutive games - is really tough to battle back from and down 0-3 in a series would seem like the ideal spot to fade such a team as no team in history has come back to win a series down 0-3, so Portland basically knows its season ended Saturday night. Unlike Game #2 (when we cashed the Blazers plus the points), they could not even cover the spread in Game #3, losing by 11 as their poor shooting continued. Assuming Golden State does not fall into yet another early hole, covering the spread here should not be a problem at all. They have incentive to sweep as it will give them more time off before the NBA Finals and maybe Kevin Durant can return for that series. Play on GOLDEN STATE AAA | |||||||
05-20-19 | Mariners v. Rangers OVER 11 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 102 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play on OVER Seattle-Texas A Seattle-Texas matchup should almost be an automatic "green light" to take the Over in our opinion. The Mariners have given up the most runs in all of baseball (292), but at the same time they have also scored the second most (258). Therefore, it's no shocker that they are the top Over team in the sport with a 34-12-3 O/U record. True to form, they are off a four-game series (against Minnesota) where they allowed 40 runs. Texas is off a series with St. Louis where every game went Under, but they are still giving up a high number of runs per game for the year (5.5). At the same time, they too can bring the offense as they average 5.8 runs/game, which is #1 in all of MLB! The only previous series between these teams in 2019 brought three Overs in four games (one push). The three games that went Over all saw the winning side score no fewer than 14 runs. Seattle starter Mike Leake did win his last time out, an impressive performance which saw him limit the A's to just three runs (only one earned), but he entered that start with an 0-5 TSR his last five starts. The Rangers hand the baseball to Mike Minor, who has a 4.21 ERA in nine career appearances vs. the Mariners. Play OVER Seattle-Texas AAA | |||||||
05-19-19 | Cubs v. Nationals OVER 9.5 | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cubs-Nationals We were on the Nationals last night as the thinking was Jon Lester's recent numbers weren't all they were cracked up to be. Sure enough, they got to Lester five times by the fifth inning and that was enough. Cubs manager Joe Maddon protested the loss due to the delivery of Washington reliever Sean Dolittle, which he complained about twice. Perhaps it was just seeing the Nationals bullpen pitch well that had Maddon raising his eyebrows. This group has been a disaster with a 6.77 ERA so far. Tonight's starter Jeremy Hellickson isn't much better with a 6.28 ERA his last three starts and a 7.90 ERA at home for the year. The Cubs would then seem to have a rather substantial edge in this matchup with Kyle Hendricks pitching as he has allowed just one earned run his last three starts where he's pitched 25 innings. But Hendricks is also a lot worse on the road with a 5.91 ERA. The Over is 14-7-1 in Cubs road games so far. Play OVER Cubs-Nationals AAA | |||||||
05-19-19 | Bucks v. Raptors UNDER 220.5 | Top | 112-118 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Milwaukee-Toronto Game #1 was a bad shooting night all-around as both teams finished below 40% from the field. The Bucks came from behind to win that one, 108-100, but then it was a wire to wire victory in Game #2 with them clobbering the Raptors 125-103. That was the most points given up by Toronto in any game in the playoffs and just the third allowing more than 108 points. All three have been on the road (twice at Philadelphia), so at least expect a lot better defense from the Raptors tonight in Game #3. They are still holding teams under 100 PPG overall in the playoffs. They've allowed just one 100+ point game at home the entire playoffs and that was the first game. At the same time, they haven't had a game where they shot 50% themselves since Game 1 vs. Philly. Milwaukee is a great defensive team as it led the league in efficiency in the regular season. The last five games have seen them limit opponents to a 38.1 FG%. In 10 playoff games, the Bucks have allowed more than 103 points only twice! Play UNDER Milwaukee-Toronto AAA | |||||||
05-19-19 | Giants v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER San Francisco-Arizona These teams went Over on Saturday with the Giants winning 8-5. That was a bit of a rare occurrence as they previous five meetings (dating back to last August) had all gone Under. Three of those five games, including Friday's opener, were shutouts. San Francisco is not a team that's going to be able to consistently put runs on the board this year, so look for them to struggle at the plate today as they get set to face Robbie Ray, who has a 1.10 ERA his last three starts. Ray has allowed more than three earned runs in just one start all year, but even more key is that he's had the Giants number with a 3-0 record and 2.45 ERA in seven starts against them dating back to 2017. Right now, he looks like the pitcher who had a career year two seasons ago. SF's Pomeranz has had his struggles and will be coming off the DL here. But the Under is 5-2 his last seven starts. Play UNDER San Francisco-Arizona AAA | |||||||
05-19-19 | Blues v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER St. Louis-San Jose Boston is already onto the Stanley Cup Final, but we're guaranteed at least six games in the Western Conference Final where things are now squared back at two games apiece. The Blues shook off a brutal Game 3 finish to win Game 4, 2-1, and our read here is that another low-scoring affair is in the cards. We're now heading back to San Jose where the Sharks seem to have an advantage. The Over cashed in the first two games of the series here and the first three games overall. But the Under is 25-11-2 in the Blues last 39 games after scoring two goals or less their previous time out. They have Jordan Binnington in net. This rookie was a difference maker again in Game 4 by stopping 29 of 30 shots. At the same time, St. Louis had only 22 shots on goal themselves. Shot totals have not been particularly high in this series. We don't think they will be for this crucial Game #5 where both goalies figure to be at their best. Play UNDER St. Louis-San Jose AAA | |||||||
05-19-19 | Dodgers -168 v. Reds | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA DODGERS The Dodgers had their four-game win streak (three shutouts) snapped on Saturday, but should get right back into the win column Sunday here in Cincinnati. They had shut the Reds out on Friday, 6-0, but then got a taste of their own medicine yesterday in a 4-0 loss. Shutouts have been incredibly common in Dodgers games recently with 7 of their last 10 games ending up that way, either in their favor or not. Five of the seven games have been wins. Two of the shutouts have been authored by today's starting pitcher, Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is on an incredible run and having an incredible season. Ryu is working on a 24 inning scoreless stretch and didn't allow a run in either of his last two starts. He took a no-hitter into the eighth inning of his last one. That came after a 93-pitch complete game. Ryu hasn't allowed more than 2 ER in any start all season. He has the second lowest ERA in the majors (1.72) right now. We just don't see how Tanner Roark and the Reds can match up here. Cincy is 5-12 in day games this season and 0-7 on Sunday. The Dodgers are 9-3 in day games. Play LA DODGERS AAA | |||||||
05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers -2 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -113 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PORTLAND Despite not playing all that well in Game #1, Portland was very much alive going into the fourth quarter. They only trailed by six. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But for Game #2, we took Portland and the points. That proved to be the absolute right call as the Blazers led outright almost the entire way. They were up by 15 at halftime and up eight with just 4:30 left in the game. But as we all now know, they lost 114-111. That's a bitter pill to swallow, but at least Portland is back at home for Game #3, which helps soften the blow. They are 37-10 SU at home for the year, including 5-1 in the playoffs. Their scoring average jumps to 118.1 points/game at the Moda Center. Let us not forget the Warriors are still playing without Kevin Durant. They've gone 3-0 since his injury, but they're more likely to miss him on the road. After Game #2's non-cover, the Warriors are now 3-8 ATS following a their last 11 straight up victories. Portland HAS to have this one. Play on PORTLAND AAA | |||||||
05-18-19 | Warriors v. Blazers OVER 221 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 48 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Golden State-Portland Portland did not shoot well in Game #1 (36.1 FG%). As a result, they lost 116-94. We called for them to shoot much better in Game #2 and they did. Ultimately though, it did not matter as they dropped a 'heartbreaker' 114-111. Unlike Gm 1, that was an Over and that's how we're playing the Game #3 total. Portland is obviously a more prolific offensive team at home where tha average 118.1 points/game. The Warriors, even without Kevin Durant, have little issue scoring. They've gone for an average of 115 points in the first two games while shooting better than 50% overall. Steph Curry, as you might expect a former MVP would, has picked up the scoring slack in Durant's absence. Without question, the Blazers will be desperate in Game 3. But that doesn't mean the Warriors won't do their fair share of scoring as well. The Over is 12-4 when Portland is off a loss. It is also 13-3 the last 16 times they have hosted the Warriors. Play OVER Golden State-Portland AAA | |||||||
05-18-19 | Cubs v. Nationals -137 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Nationals fell to an unthinkable 2-8 in Max Scherzer starts by losing last night 14-6. Don't put that all on Scherzer, however. It was 3-2 game when he left (Nats trailing) and then the bullpen imploded in spectacular fashion, giving up 11 runs over the last three innings, including five home runs. Washington is better than this and we like them to bounce back behind Stephen Strasburg tonight. Strasburg hasn't gotten any run support in his last two starts, literally, as the Nationals didn't score a single run in either game. But Straburg is still pitching well. He's gone six or more innings in six straight starts and given up two runs or less in four of the last five. For the Cubs, Lester hasn't allowed any earned runs in his last three starts. But he still has a higher WHIP than Strasburg for the year, which is telling. There have been three unearned runs allowed in the last two starts as well as 17 hits. So it's not been the dominant stretch some will make it out to be. Lester has a 1-4 TSR his last five starts vs. the Nationals, who are 70-28 in Strasburg's last 98 starts. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
05-18-19 | Cardinals v. Rangers OVER 12 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER St. Louis-Texas We're going Over the high total in this Interleague matchup. There has been a pitching change here with the Rangers now going with Jurado, who will be making his first start of the year, although it probably won't be for long. Jurado is being used as more of an "opener" and hasn't pitched more than 2 1/3 innings in any appearance this season. Though it did its job last night, it's not like the Rangers bullpen is very good. The offense scored all seven of its runs in the second inning and has now put 29 on the board the last three games. They've only given up five in the same stretch, but the three games before that saw them allow 37. We look for the St. Louis offense to break out of its mini-slump here as the Rangers are still giving up 5.5 runs/game, which is among the highest numbers in the sport. The Cardinals get to use a DH this weekend, so that helps. Problem is that Texas averages 6.6 runs/game at home, which is the highest average in either league. So Dakota Hudson is probably going to struggle here for St. Louis. He already has a 6.43 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in three road starts and other than Coors Field, this will probably be the most hitter-friendly park he pitches in all season. Play OVER St. Louis-Texas AAA | |||||||
05-17-19 | Pirates v. Padres -155 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -155 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on SAN DIEGO How Pittsburgh is above .500 is a minor miracle. They have not just the worst run differential in the division (-48), but the second worst in the entire National League (Miami). They lost last night here in San Diego, 4-3, and we should get a repeat of that result tonight. Probably we should expect things to be even more lopsided. Even though the Bucs are 12-11 on the road, they've actually been outscored by a full run per game. The rotation is in tatters right now, putting a lot of pressure on starter Jordan Lyles this evening. While Lyles has a 6-1 team start record this year, his career numbers against San Diego aren't good at all. We're talking a 5.60 ERA, a 1.73 WHIP and opponents batting average of .296 against his former team. San Diego turns to Lucchesi, who is a much better pitcher at home than he is on the road. Then again, Lucchesi did just go 5 1/3 innings at Coors Field last Saturday while allowing one run. The Pirates have lost their last six games against left-handed starters. Play on SAN DIEGO AAA | |||||||
05-17-19 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 215.5 | Top | 103-125 | Win | 100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Toronto-Milwaukee We had the Under in Game #1, but go the other way (Over) for Game #2. Neither team shot well (both below 40% FG) Wednesday night. That's not likely to happen again. While Game #1 may have been just the fourth time in the playoffs that Toronto allowed more than 100 points, they may need to get used to doing so in this series seeing as Milwaukee led the league in scoring this season (118.1 points/game) and was #1 in offensive efficiency here. The Bucks aren't likely to shoot 39.8% from the field again, nor are they likely to miss three quarters of their three-point attempts. It was a similar poor shooting effort in Game 1 of the Boston series (they lost that one) and then they came back to score 123 points in the next game. Toronto is no slouch in the offensive department either. They were only 19 of 50 on two-point attempts in Game #1. They'll better that for sure tonight. The Over is 4-1 in Milwaukee's last five games on one day's rest, all of those coming in the playoffs. Play OVER Toronto-Milwaukee AAA | |||||||
05-17-19 | Sharks v. Blues -136 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS We're not sure how long it will take to get over losing Wednesday's Game of the Year play on St. Louis. Certainly, we aren't over it yet. Watching the Blues storm back from a 3-1 deficit to take a 4-3 lead and then give up the game-tying goal late in regulation was tough enough. But the way they lost in overtime was worse and never should have happened. The refs missed a pretty blatant penalty on the Sharks, which led to the game-winning goal. But there's no better way for the Blues (and us) to avenge that defeat than by coming back and winning Game #4, which is again at home. St. Louis has been "left for dead" before. After all, they had the fewest points in the league back on January 2nd. So it would be very "on brand" to see them bounce back with a win tonight. We think they will as San Jose drops to 3-8 its last 11 road games. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA | |||||||
05-17-19 | Brewers v. Braves -132 | Top | 8-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ATLANTA Both the Braves and Brewers were playoff teams last year and obviously both would like to return there this fall. Both did win in their last series after losing the opener. Milwaukee took three of four, in Philadelphia, while Atlanta took two of three from St. Louis here at home. By rule, one of them is going to be successful in this series opener and we like the Braves. After being drubbed in the first game (lost 14-3), Atlanta gave it right back by outscoring St. Louis 14-2 the last two days. Starter Fried just may be the right man for the job tonight considering his 0.82 WHIP at home. Brewers starter Chacin has a 6.00 ERA on the road. Yes, Chacin has looked quite good of late, but the team is still 0-4 his last four road starts. The last one saw him allow just two runs at Wrigley and the Brewers still lost. Milwaukee is just 9-19 their last 28 games in Atlanta. Chacin also has an 0-4 team start record his last four starts against teams that have winning records. Play on ATLANTA AAA | |||||||
05-17-19 | Cubs v. Nationals -145 | Top | 14-6 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on WASHINGTON The Nationals got a much needed win yesterday, 7-6 over the Mets, thereby taking that three-game set. They get a much tougher opponent this weekend, also at home, in the form of the Cubs. But they'll have Max Scherzer starting the opener Friday. Although Scherzer has a stunning 2-7 team start record this year, it's not like he's pitched that poorly. The ERA is definitely a little higher than normal (3.64) as is the WHIP (1.15). But both numbers are better at home despite an 0-5 TSR here. It's been four straight quality starts from Scherzer with 35 strikeouts in 27 innings and just nine total runs allowed. It's a tough matchup here vs. Cole Hamels, but Scherzer is 4-1 with a 2.55 ERA all-time against the Cubs, who have lost two in a row after winning six of seven. Having to sit through a rain delay last night in Cincinnati probably does them no favors for today. Play on WASHINGTON AAA | |||||||
05-16-19 | Blazers +7.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PORTLAND Portland probably couldn't have played any worse in Game 1. Yet they were only down six going into the fourth quarter. Golden State took it from there, outscoring the Blazers 39-23 the rest of the way for a comfortable 116-94 win and cover. We were happy with that result seeing as we'd laid the points with the Warriors. But Portland obviously wasn't and to make this a series they're going to need to start shooting a lot better than they have recently. They have a field goal percentage of only 41.3 the last five games, including a playoff low 36.1% in Game 1. Three-point shooting in particular is due to improve. History is on the Blazers side as well, at least this season, as they are a perfect 8-0 against the spread seeking revenge for a double digit road loss. Remember that this team won twice in Denver last round and the Nuggets had the league's best home record. Play on PORTLAND AAA | |||||||
05-16-19 | Cardinals v. Braves OVER 10 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 102 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER St. Louis-Atlanta The Cardinals and Braves have exchanged a couple of commanding wins here, albeit in much different fashion. St. Louis won the first game 14-3 while Atlanta won last night 4-0. For the Cardinals, this is a continuation of a "feast or famine" approach at the plate. Twice in the last five days they've scored 14 or more runs in a game and they have scored six or more runs in four of their last nine. But the other five have seen them score just three runs total as they've been held to 1 or 0 every time. We expect more "feast" tonight as they are set to face Julio Teheran, whose had himself an up and down to start the year. The Over is 9-3-2 the last 14 times St. Louis scored 2 runs or less in its last game. They are still third in the National League in runs scored. The Over is 4-0 the last four times Teheran has started on at least five days rest. He hasn't pitched since last Friday. Adam Wainwright will start tonight for the Cardinals. The Over is 16-7-1 when he starts off a team loss. Wainright has been a lot worse on the road so far where his ERA is 5.39. Play OVER St. Louis-Atlanta AAA | |||||||
05-16-19 | Brewers v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia Virtually all the trends say that we're heading for another Under between the Brewers and Phillies Thursday, which would be the third straight in the series. (Monday's game, a 7-4 Philly win, did go Over). The Under is 5-1 in the Brewers last six games as well as 6-1 in the Phillies last seven. Then you have the fact that today's starter for Milwaukee, Zach Davies, is 8-0 Under this year. Philadelphia, looking to earn itself a split of this four-game series, goes with Zach Eflin. He's pitched even better than this year than his counterpart with the 8-0 Under record, including a complete game effort in his last start. Despite all this, we look for this game to still go Over. We played the Over last night and it was looking good early with Milwaukee up 4-1 after just three innings. But things really settled down after that and it ended up a 5-2 final. It's not like both offenses aren't capable of a big day at the plate. Milwaukee has averaged 5.0 runs/game in the series. Philadelphia scored 6 or more in three straight games before the last two days. Let's try this again. Play OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia AAA | |||||||
05-15-19 | Raptors v. Bucks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Toronto-Milwaukee Neither Eastern Conference Finalist had a very hard time in Round 1 with the Raptors advancing after only five games against the Magic and the Bucks sweeping the Pistons. Toronto needed seven games to get rid of Philadelphia in Round 2, however, with the series coming down to a heart-stopping shot by Kawhi Leonard. It was the first playoff buzzer beater in a winner take all game since the infamous Michael Jordan shot over Craig Ehlo 30 years ago. While the Raptors were playing until Sunday, Milwaukee has enjoyed a full week off since eliminating the Celtics in five games. They had a similar amount of time off between the first two series and did lose Game 1 to Boston, scoring only 90 points in the process. That's the Bucks only loss of the playoffs so far. Toronto is giving up just 96 points/game in the playoffs and has allowed more than 100 in just two of the last 11 games. Not to be outdone, Milwaukee led the league in defensive efficiency during the regular season and has allowed no more than 104 points in seven of their nine playoff games. Play UNDER Toronto-Milwaukee AAA | |||||||
05-15-19 | Raptors +6.5 v. Bucks | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TORONTO Neither Eastern Conference Finalist had a very hard time in Round 1 with the Raptors advancing after only five games against the Magic and the Bucks sweeping the Pistons. Toronto needed seven games to get rid of Philadelphia in Round 2, however, with the series coming down to a heart-stopping shot by Kawhi Leonard. It was the first playoff buzzer beater in a winner take all game since the infamous Michael Jordan shot over Craig Ehlo 30 years ago. While the Raptors were playing until Sunday, Milwaukee has enjoyed a full week off since eliminating the Celtics in five games. They are 8-1 SU and ATS in the playoffs and have the home court edge in this series. But history shows they might come out a bit rusty for this one. Coming off similar rest between the first two series, they lost Game 1 to Boston here at home, dropping them to 2-4 ATS this season playing with three or more days rest. They are just 5-14-1 ATS their last 20 games in this situation. With the Raptors allowing less than 100 points/game in the playoffs, our recommendation is to take the points in Game 1. Play on TORONTO AAA | |||||||
05-15-19 | Sharks v. Blues -140 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -140 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on ST. LOUIS St. Louis did what it needed to do in the first two games and that's win once. Now that they've stolen the home ice advantage away from San Jose, the Blues get the next two games at their rink. While they have not been as dominant at home as you would expect in the playoffs, they did close out each of their first two series at the Enterprise Center. They are 17-6 the last 23 games here and that includes one loss where they were not money line favorites. After poor defensive play essentially "gave away" Game #1, the Blues responded with a very impressive 4-2 win in Game #2. How did they do it? With much better defense. The Sharks simply do not score as many goals on the road as they do at home. In the 10 home playoff games, they have scored 39 goals or an average of 3.9 per game. In six road playoff games, they have scored only 12 goals or an average of 2.0 per game. That's basically a 50% drop in production. Individually, 16 of the combined 22 playoff goals from Logan Couture and Thomas Hertl have been scored in San Jose. In their lone regular season visit to the Gateway City, the Sharks were shut out 4-0. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA | |||||||
05-15-19 | Brewers v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -101 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia This is a four-game series the Phillies and Brewers are involved in and so far each team has notched a win. Milwaukee got their yesterday, 6-1, snapping a three-game losing streak in the process. But prior to that three-game slide, they'd won seven in a row. Philadelphia had won 5 of 6 before tasting defeat on Tuesday and in those five wins had scored 35 runs. They've been one of the top offensive teams in the National League, especially at home where they are scoring 5.6 runs per game. It may look like a bit of a tough assignment tonight vs. Gio Gonzalez, but the numbers from Gonzalez are a byproduct of a small sample size with two of the three starts coming against the Mets. The Over is 10-3 the Phillies last 13 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Jake Arrieta goes here for Philly and he allowed three home runs in his last start. He'd allowed just five in his previous seven starts combined and the three homers given up came in an American League park. But Arrieta definitely seems to be "slowing down" lately with a 6.19 ERA his previous three starts. Play OVER Milwaukee-Philadelphia AAA | |||||||
05-15-19 | Angels v. Twins -129 | Top | 7-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
This is an 8* Play on MINNESOTA The Twins certainly look like the team to beat in the AL Central at this point. In fact, they are one of just six MLB teams to be currently playing .600 ball or better. They have the second best overall record in the American League after beating the Angels yesterday, 4-3, and it shouldn't be much trouble winning again here on Wednesday afternoon. Minnesota will give the baseball to a hot hand in Jake Odorizzi, who is currently working on a 20-inning scoreless streak. Odorizzi is 2nd in the AL in ERA at 2.32 and during the 20 innings of scoreless baseball, he's allowed a total of just seven hits. He's allowed 3 ER or fewer in all but one start in 2019. His last start saw Odorizzi go seven innings and allow just one hit to Detroit. Another hot hand for the Twins, Kyle Gibson, did very well against the Angels yesterday. It's hard to imagine Odorizzi not doing the same given the struggles we've seen from the Angels lineup on the road this year. Trevor Cahill starts for the road team and he hasn't exactly pitched well of late. We're talking an 8.10 ERA and 1.65 WHIP his L3 starts and a 6.35 ERA and 1.37 WHIP overall. Cahill has struggled at Target Field in the past (6.23 ERA) as well. The Twins are giving up only 3.2 runs/game at home this year and only 2.7 the last 7 games overall. Play on MINNESOTA AAA | |||||||
05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors -7.5 | Top | 94-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on GOLDEN STATE Golden State is making its fifth straight Western Conference Finals appearance while Portland is here for the first time since 2000. The experience edge should ultimately prevail here in Game 1 and we're going to lay the points. It's easy to forget, but the Blazers were down 17 in the first half of their eventual Game 7 victory against Denver on Sunday. The Warriors, playing without Kevin Durant, eliminated Houston on Friday. The couple of extra days between series is a nice edge for Golden State as they have to keep going on sans Durant. They've got the edge in rest and home court. We have Houston rated stronger than Portland so this is one of those rare times a team (Golden State) is actually facing a weaker team after advancing. Even though they did win Game 7 in Denver, the Blazers are still only 24-23 SU on the road this season. They are 1-5 ATS following their last 6 straight up victories. They are just 9-22 ATS their last 31 trips into Oakland and that includes a 28-point loss earlier in the season. Play GOLDEN STATE AAA | |||||||
05-14-19 | Blazers v. Warriors OVER 219 | Top | 94-116 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on OVER Portland-Golden State Golden State is making its fifth straight Western Conference Finals appearance while Portland is here for the first time since 2000. The experience edge should ultimately prevail here in Game 1 and the series. But we like the Over too as both of these teams can score. The big story coming into this series is the absence of Kevin Durant, but the Warriors did just fine without him in closing out Houston Friday night. They scored 118 points with Steph Curry and Klay Thompson combining for 60 points as they were 11 of 24 from three-point range. With Durant out, we expect Curry to more than pick up the slack. Of course, Portland's starting backcourt can score too with Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum taking turns leading their team. It was McCollum's 37 points in Game 7 vs. Denver that was the difference as the Blazers overcame a 17-point first half deficit. Lillard had scored 32 points in Game 6 of that last series and he's put together some big games vs. the Warriors this year, averaging 28.3 points per contest (4 games). The Over is 19-7 the last 26 times these teams have played. Play OVER Portland-Golden State AAA | |||||||
05-14-19 | Astros v. Tigers OVER 10.5 | Top | 11-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Houston-Detroit As you might expect, the Astros rolled to an 8-1 victory last night in the series opener here in Detroit. The Tigers appeared overmatched from the jump as starter Boyd gave up three early runs and Houston never trailed en route to its sixth straight victory. Boyd is Detroit's best starter, so you have to figure the Astros are going to continue to score runs here at Comerica Park, today in particular as they are set to face Ryan Carpenter, whose first start did not go well at all. Against the Angels last Thursday, Carpenter conceded six runs and lasted just five innings. Houston has scored 34 runs in just the last three games and scored 10 or more four times in its last 10 games overall. But we should also see the Tigers put more runs on the board Tuesday. Houston's Wade Miley has pitched well this season, but strikeout numbers are low and four previous starts against Detroit have brought zero wins and an ERA of 6.63. He also has an ERA above 4.00 on the road this year. Play OVER Houston-Detroit AAA | |||||||
05-13-19 | Angels v. Twins OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER LA Angels-Minnesota Minnesota is the biggest surprise in baseball right now as they have the best overall record at 25-14. They did lose to Detroit on Sunday, but have to be feeling good about their chances tonight as they'll send out Jose Berrios. Berrios has been tremendous so far with 51 strikeouts against only eight walks in 53 1/3 innings. The Twins have won seven of the eight times he's started and Berrios has posted a 2.53 ERA and 0.919. But two previous starts against the Angels have resulted in a 5.56 ERA, so do not be surprised if he gives up more runs here than per usual. Tyler Skaggs goes for the Angels and he has a 6.38 ERA and 1.581 WHIP on the road this season. The Angels let me down big time on Sunday, but are still scoring 5.9 runs/game over the last week. There have also been three times in the last eight games they've allowed 10 or more runs. The Twins are scoring 5.3 runs per game this year, so this total looks low. The Over is 8-1 the Angels last nine tries off a loss and 7-1 the last eight times the Twins have taken on a left-handed starter. Play OVER Angels-Twins AAA | |||||||
05-12-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 209 | Top | 90-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto This series has seen mostly low-scoring games, so it stands to reason that Game #7 will follow suit. Toronto has played exceptional defense throughout the playoffs. They are allowing only 96.5 points/game on 41.1% shooting. Philadelphia happens to have blown by those averages twice in the last four games, but both instances came when they were the home team. No visitor has been able to score more than 104 points in Toronto this postseason. But the Raptors have still dropped two home playoff games, including one in this series (Game #2) where they scored only 89 points. They've topped 101 points only one time in the last five games. There have been only three playoff games where they have scored more than 108 points. Not only is the Under 5-0 the last five times Philly has been off an ATS win, but the Under is 4-0 the last four times Toronto has been off an ATS loss. Play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto AAA | |||||||
05-12-19 | Reds v. Giants UNDER 7 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Cincinnati-San Francisco In the opener of this three-game series, we took the Over. The Reds definitely did their job in the game, scoring seven times, but the Giants were shutout and thus we missed the Over by a half run. Saturday's game did go Over, with the Reds winning again, this time a closer game. It was 5-4 with the Reds scoring three times in the first and then getting a run in both the 5th and 7th innings to tie and win the game. The Over has hit in five of six meetings this season and it was 4-0 in last weekend's series in Cincy. We think this game goes differently though as SF has Bumgarner on the hill. He's off two straight quality starts where he allowed a total of four runs in 12 innings. Even more impressive is the fact the last one came at Coors Field. His last home start saw him allow just one run to the Dodgers. He did not pitch in the series against the Reds. Cincy goes with Mahle, who has both yet to win and yet to see a start go Over. The Under is 6-0-1 in Mahle starts with the Reds being shutout in three of them! In the seven starts, Cincinnati has scored just nine runs total and four of the games have seen three or fewer runs scored total! Mahle has allowed just 1 ER in each of his last two starts. Play UNDER Cincinnati-San Francisco AAA | |||||||
05-12-19 | Angels -155 v. Orioles | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -155 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on LA ANGELS You probably don't have to be told that the Orioles are horrible, but allow us to extrapolate. By a large margin, they are the worst team in the American League. They've now been outscored by 79 runs on the season and are just 13-26. They've lost 10 of 13 including four straight. No other team can touch their 233 runs allowed this year, easily the most in all of MLB. The Angels have come into Camden Yards and taken the first two games by scores of 8-3 and 7-2. Par for the course for the O's. We had Los Angeles in the first game and Sunday's finale will be our top MLB side for May. You might think Baltimore has some sort of chance here, given how John Means has pitched. But Sunday's starter has gotten to face two opponents twice so far. Baltimore is 5-15 at home and 5-12 in day games. Canning starts today for the Angels and his first two outings have both resulted in victories with him fanning 13 in 9 2/3 innings. The Angels are now 7-1 vs. the Orioles since the start of last season and 11-3 since the start of the 2017 season. They are 10-4 their last 14 games overall and two of the four losses were down in Mexico against Houston. Play on LA ANGELS AAA | |||||||
05-12-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets -5.5 | Top | 100-96 | Loss | -107 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Going into each of Denver's two series thus far, we've stated the fact they had the home court advantage would be vital. Once again, we find them hosting a Game 7. The first round series against San Antonio ended with the Nuggets winning 90-86 here at the Pepsi Center. Though they won, it ended up being a terrible beat (we had Denver) as they blew the cover late (were -6.5). It was a game they led wire to wire and were up double digits much of the way. The reason the home court edge has been so crucial in these first two series is not only because Denver has such a dramatic home vs. road split, but so too have each of their opponents. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league at 39-9 straight up, but are just 22-23 on the road. San Antonio had the second best home record in the league in the regular season, but was just 16-25 on the road. Portland isn't quite as dramatic, but they are 37-10 at home vs. just 23-23 on the road. Denver has lost one home game in each round, but notable is that they have given up 98 points or less four of the last five games here. They'll shoot a lot better today than they did in Game #6 simply because of the return home. Portland has followed up its last five SU wins with an ATS loss. Play on DENVER AAA | |||||||
05-12-19 | Hurricanes v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -125 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Carolina-Boston Carolina had a 2-1 lead going into the third period of Game 1, but that quickly went away when Boston scored on consecutive power play opportunities, those goals coming less than 30 seconds apart. That 3-2 advantage held until just over two minutes were left in regulation when the Bruins scored on an empty net. They added another for good measure seconds later. So from a total bettor's perspective, the fact the game "easily" went Over is highly misleading. Boston was tied for third in goals allowed in the regular season. So we should see Carolina limited again here offensively. But with Petr Mrazek back in net, we likely won't be seeing another four goal period from the Bruins either. Game 1 was the most goals the Hurricanes allowed in a game since losing 6-0 to Washington back in the first round. In between those two losses, they won six straight times and gave up only 10 goals. In the four-game sweep of the Islanders, they allowed only five goals! The Under is 4-0 the previous four times the Bruins have been off a game where they scored five or more goals. Play UNDER Carolina-Boston AAA | |||||||
05-11-19 | Blues v. Sharks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -123 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* Play UNDER St. Louis-San Jose Both the Blues and Sharks needed seven games to get here and we were on both in the respective Game 7 victories. St. Louis outlasted Dallas, winning a thrilling double OT game at home on Tuesday. The following night was San Jose's turn as they also won by one goal, beating Colorado 3-2, a game which swung on a disallowed goal. The key to St. Louis getting this far has been goaltender Jordan Binnington. He led the league in goals against average (1.89) in the regular season and allowed just two goals in the final two games of the last series. San Jose has scored more than three goals only one time in its last six games. The last six times these teams have played, the game has stayed Under. Three were shutouts, two of those taking place this year. So another low-scoring game should be in the cards tonight, especially with both teams having done such a great job recently at limiting the number of shots their goaltenders have seen. Play UNDER St. Louis-San Jose AAA | |||||||
05-11-19 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 10.5 | Top | 5-9 | Win | 102 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Boston We had the Over in this matchup last night and the Red Sox did all the "heavy lifting" in a 14-1 beatdown of the Mariners. That result is fairly indicative of the way things have been going lately for each team. After digging itself an early season hold, Boston is 14-6 its L20 games and now over .500 for the first time all year. Seattle started 13-2, but is just 7-19 since and trending in a direction that will have them below .500 in no time. Part of the Mariners problem is that they are giving up way too many runs. Yesterday was a "Exhibit A" in that regard. It was the 4th time they've given up double digits runs (10 or more) to the opponent in the last 12 games. At the same time though, they still lead the league in runs scored and home runs. Yesterday was a bad day at the plate, but the M's had scored 10 in two of their five games before last night. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are averaging 5.1 runs/game at Fenway Park. The should do well today against Felix Hernandez, whose best days are long behind him. Hernandez recently allowed 7 runs in a bad night at Yankee Stadium. Things aren't likely to go any better here. The Over is 3-1 in Hernandez's last four starts and he has a 6.16 ERA on the road. Boston's Rick Porcello has pitched better of late, but he still has a 5.11 ERA and 1.567 WHIP on the year and the Over is 6-1 in his 7 starts. Play OVER Seattle-Boston AAA | |||||||
05-10-19 | Reds v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cincinnati-San Francisco This is a rematch of a series played last weekend in Cincinnati. The Reds and Giants split four games, but all of them went Over. Tonight's series opener in San Francisco should also go Over the number. The Giants offense has slowly woken up. After those four straight Overs last weekend in Cincinnati, they put 25 more runs on the board in two games at Colorado. Unfortunately for them, they also allowed 12 yesterday as what would have been a remarkable comeback at Coors Field (trailed 7-0 after two innings) ultimately fell short. That was the 5th time in the past 10 games the Giants pitching staff allowed 10 or more runs. Cincinnati's offense really hasn't been producing that much this year, but they did score 37 times in four games vs. the Giants last weekend. They should score plenty more here against Dereck Rodriguez, who they homered off four times last Saturday while scoring eight runs in just five innings. Rodriguez has allowed a total of 14 runs in his last two starts. The Reds go with Castillo, who allowed four runs in his start vs. SF last weekend. Play OVER Cincinnati-San Francisco AAA | |||||||
05-10-19 | Warriors v. Rockets -7 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -109 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on HOUSTON We'll look to stay perfect in this series by going with the Rockets in Game #6. Now laying points may not seem like an especially fruitful venture, considering the way this series has gone so far. All five games have been decided by six points or less, however, the home team is 5-0 straight up as well. The Rockets won Game #3 by five points (OT) and Game #4 by four points. But they are this big a favorite for a reason and that reason is Kevin Durant's calf injury, which will almost certainly keep him out of Game #6. No one should ever root for a player to get injured, but Rockets fans have to feel like this is a bit of "poetic justice" considering this is exactly what happened to them with Chris Paul in last year's Western Conference Finals. After losing Paul, the Rockets lost the next two games and the rest is history. Now they'll hope history repeats itself with the Warriors and Durant. This is the most points Golden State has ever gotten under Steve Kerr in the playoffs. Durant was leading the league in scoring in the playoffs at 35.4 points/game, so the loss of him can't be overstated. The Warriors did not look like the same team once he went down. The Rockets are 4-1 ATS in this series and 9-1-1 ATS their last 11 home games. Play on HOUSTON AAA | |||||||
05-10-19 | Mariners v. Red Sox OVER 10 | Top | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* play OVER Seattle-Boston The Red Sox used yesterday to visit the White House, but are now back to playing baseball as they'll host the Mariners for a three-game series. Things have started come full circle for Boston, who opened the 2019 season by losing three of four up in Seattle. They were 6-13 on April 17th, but have since gone 13-6 to square themselves up at .500. The Mariners are going the opposite direction. They started 13-2, but have cooled off considerably, losing 18 of the last 25 games. One thing they haven't stopped doing though is having their games go Over the total. No team has produced more Overs this year than has Seattle (27-10-3 O/U record). They've hit the most home runs and scored the most runs in all of baseball. The Red Sox are also starting to produce, at least they are at Fenway Park, where they average 5.1 runs per game. Friday starter Rodriguez has seen six of his seven starts go Over, including four straight. Even though he has a 5-2 TSR, his ERA is 5.40 and his WHIP is 1.50, not impressive numbers. Seattle starter Swanson has seen his last three starts all go Over as he has an ERA & WHIP of 5.74 and 1.40 in them. Play OVER Seattle-Boston AAA | |||||||
05-10-19 | Angels -172 v. Orioles | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
This is a 7* play on LA Angels As long as they stay in the United States, the Angels are doing quite well for themselves lately. Last weekend saw them have to travel down to Mexico for a two-game series against the Astros. Those games went very badly as Los Angeles was outscored 24-6. But prior to heading South of the border, they'd won four straight and had swept Toronto. Upon their return to the U.S., the Angels took two of three from Detroit, including 13-0 win yesterday. Now they open up a series against who is unquestionably the worst team in the American League, Baltimore. The Orioles did have Thursday off, but days off previously have not helped them at all. They are 3-6 in the role this season and 12-36 their L48! Neither starting pitcher for Friday is going to remind you of Cy Young. But Baltimore's Straily has a 7.49 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Angels while LA's Cahill has a 1.97 ERA in five career starts vs. the Orioles. The Angels hit 5 HR's yesterday and the Orioles staff has given up a league-high 80 longballs this season. Play on LA Angels AAA | |||||||
05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers -4 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on PORTLAND Look for a big time rebound from the Blazers at home in Game #6 Thursday night. They were blown out in Game #5, losing 124-98. It was easily their worst game in the playoffs and it put them behind the proverbial 8-ball as they'll now have to win the next two games to make the Western Conference Finals. But winning here at home should come pretty easy. Our feeling, much like Denver's first round series against San Antonio, is that home court advantage would play an extremely important role in this series. The Nuggets have the best home record in the league, but are a below .500 team on the road. The Blazers are 36-10 SU in home games this year, though they did lose Game 4 here. But we should see across the board improvement from Game #5 where they only shot 36.7%, easily their worst field goal percentage of any playoff game yet. Something we've harped on previously is that Denver is way worse defensively on the road. They allow less than 103 points/game at the Pepsi Center. On the road, that number jumps to 110.8. The Blazers are a perfect 7-0 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a double digit road loss. Play on PORTLAND AAA | |||||||
05-09-19 | Nuggets v. Blazers OVER 215.5 | Top | 108-119 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on OVER Denver-Portland Look for a big time rebound from the Blazers at home in Game #6 Thursday night, especially offensively. They were blown out in Game #5, losing 124-98. It was easily their worst game in the playoffs and it put them behind the proverbial 8-ball as they'll now have to win the next two games to make the Western Conference Finals. In Game #5, Portland only shot 36.7%, easily their worst field goal percentage of any playoff game yet. Something we've harped on previously is that Denver is way worse defensively on the road. They allow less than 103 points/game at the Pepsi Center. On the road, that number jumps to 110.8. The Over is now 7-0 in Denver's last seven road games. For whatever reason, oddsmakers have decided to stick to their guns with fairly low totals in this series. That doesn't make much sense though seeing as the Over has hit eight of the nine times these teams have met this season with many of those games going Over by double digit margins. The Over is 19-7-1 in Portland's last 28 home games too. Play OVER Denver-Portland AAA | |||||||
05-09-19 | Nationals v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Washington-LA Dodgers The Dodgers haven't been giving up many runs at home all season and they shouldn't give up very many today as they open a weekend series against the slumping Nationals. Washington has lost six straight series and four games in a row and the biggest reason for that is they just aren't scoring. Three Opening Day starters are on the disabled list and they have scored more than three runs in just 2 of their previous 13 games. Dodger Stadium hasn't been too kind to opposing teams so far as they are hitting just .223 here. Rich Hill should take care of this scuffling Washington lineup tonight. He has an 11-0 TSR his last 11 starts vs. NL East teams. If the Nats are too have any chance of winning this game, it will be because of Patrick Corbin, who had a 0.77 ERA in four starts vs. LA last year when he was a member of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Corbin posted a 2.49 ERA in his first five starts this year and has had only one non-quality outing all year. Play UNDER Washington-LA Dodgers AAA | |||||||
05-09-19 | Reds v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Cincinnati-Oakland The Reds and A's went 13 yesterday with the home team finally winning 5-4. That's a final score that we'd "accept" again this afternoon given the total posted by the oddsmakers. Cincinnati has been one of the lower scoring teams in all of MLB, but maybe a visit to an American League park might do the trick? Now they get to use a designated hitter. They've already been trending in an "Over direction" recently with five of the last six games going that way. Oakland has held them to just two runs in the two games so far (won both) as Michael Fiers tossed a no-hitter Tuesday. They will send Chris Bassitt to the mound for the finale. But while Bassitt has a 2.12 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in three starts, we don't expect him to pitch all that well today. Same for Reds starter Roark, who has a 1.53 WHIP on the year (seven starts). It's still a limited sample size with Bassitt to draw any real conclusions. The Over is 5-2 in Cincy's last seven Interleague road games, which supports our theory concerning the DH. The Over is also 24-9-1 the L34 times the A's scored at least five runs the previous game. Play OVER Cincinnati-Oakland AAA | |||||||
05-08-19 | Rockets v. Warriors UNDER 219.5 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Houston-Golden State We had the Under in the last game, which Houston won. The Under did too, albeit barely. Every game in this series has been close, including that last one, which was a 112-108 final. All four games in this series have been decided by six points or less. Game 5 has all the makings of another tight affair, but again our call is on the Under. The Under is now 10-3 the past 13 meetings and 20-8-1 in the Rockets last 29 games overall. The Under is also 9-3 the last 12 times the Warriors have been off a straight up loss. In the playoffs, Houston has really stepped up its defense, giving up an average of just 104.1 points/game. Steph Curry somewhat rediscovered his shooting touch in Game 4, however, he still missed 10 of 14 three-pointers and is below 30% from behind the arc in the series. Speaking of shooting, Houston isn't as likely to shoot the ball as well on the road as they did at home. They averaged just 104.5 points/game in the first two games here in Oakland. We're 4-0 in this series, cashing side & total in Game #1, Houston in Game #3 and the Under in Game #4. Play UNDER Houston-Golden State AAA | |||||||
05-08-19 | Avalanche v. Sharks -134 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on SAN JOSE We backed the home team in last night's Game 7 and will do so again in this one as San Jose hosts Colorado. For the Sharks, the Avalanche have been a lot harder to deal with in this series, then they were in the regular season. San Jose won all three times they played in the regular season, but this series has seen neither side be able to win consecutive games. That bodes well for San Jose though as they LOST Game #6 in Denver, 4-3 in overtime. Of course, this isn't San Jose's first Game 7 of these playoffs. They won in dramatic fashion (overtime) in a Game 7 in Round 1 over Vegas. That came after having to win on the road in Game 6 (a 2 OT game). Home teams have now won 3 of the 4 Game 7's played in the playoffs so far. Colorado is just 3-13 the last 16 times they have been an underdog of +150 or less on the money line. Play on SAN JOSE AAA | |||||||
05-08-19 | Celtics v. Bucks -9 | Top | 91-116 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on MILWAUKEE It's all over but the shouting in Boston as the Celtics are falling apart before our very eyes. Kyrie Irving seems to have lost the trust of his teammates as he's shot them right out of this series. Not that the rest of the team is doing much. In the last three games, Boston has shot 103 of 257, which is barely above 40%. That simply won't get it done against a team like Milwaukee, who just put up 123 points in both games at Boston. The Bucks have clearly emerged as the better team here and may very well be getting Malcolm Brogden back for Game #5 as well. With the series back in Milwaukee, what chance do the Celtics really have. The Bucks are already a league best +12.1 points per game at home this season. This has all the makings of the Celtics waving the proverbial white flag. Milwaukee's superiority just wasn't taken seriously enough. This team is legit. They've gone 38-18-2 ATS their last 58 games. Play on MILWAUKEE AAA | |||||||
05-08-19 | Twins v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Minnesota-Toronto Minnesota delivered another shutout against Toronto on Tuesday, winning 3-0, but tonight's game should feature a lot more runs. The two starters here simply are not as good as who pitched yesterday. The surging Twins got a four-hitter from their top starter Jose Berrios, but Kyle Gibson is probably the 4th best option in their rotation at this point. He has a 4.68 ERA overall and should feel very lucky to have a 3-1 team start record on the road seeing his ERA and WHIP are 5.31 and 1.62 respectively. As for the Blue Jays, they'll be sending out Trent Thornton, who is not only still winless after seven starts but he also has a 5.00 ERA at home. The Twins have been doing a lot of scoring on the road so far, averaging 5.8 runs/game. That's #4 in all of baseball. Meanwhile, Toronto has yet to score in this series, losing the first two games by scores of 8-0 and 3-0. That should change here, even though the poor offensive numbers might suggest otherwise. The Over is 5-1 in Gibson's last six starts against the Blue Jays. Play OVER Minnesota-Toronto AAA | |||||||
05-08-19 | White Sox v. Indians -195 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 6* play on CLEVELAND The Indians should not be losing two in a row to the White Sox, but that's precisely what has transpired over Monday and Tuesday. At the risk of stating the obvious, it's difficult to win in this game when you don't score any runs. Over its last three games, Cleveland has scored a grand total of one run! Whereas Sunday and Monday's losses (Sunday to Seattle) were lopsided, last night was a 2-0 game that they managed only five hits. This issue has to be corrected eventually and we think tonight is that time as the Tribe will be facing a struggling starter in Reynaldo Lopez, whose numbers leave a lot to be desired. In seven starts, Lopez has a 6.69 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. After it appeared he might be turning a corner, he allowed six runs to Boston on Friday. We played against him then and will do so again tonight. Cleveland's Shane Bieber has allowed three runs or less in every start but one this year, which will always give his team a chance to win. The runs have to start coming for the Indians sooner or later and we'll call for them to break out of the slump here. Play on CLEVELAND AAA | |||||||
05-07-19 | Blazers v. Nuggets OVER 213 | Top | 98-124 | Win | 100 | 15 h 50 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Portland-Denver Total is still too low for this series, which has seen three of the four games go Over. It's not just that though. All four regular season meetings between Denver and Portland also went Over. Game 4 saw 228 total points scored. All three Overs in the series have cashed by double digits. Yes, one of them was a 4 OT game. But considering we are dealing with two teams that have averaged more than 110 points/game over the course of the season, the point still stands that this number is too low. The Over is 13-6-1 in Portland's last 20 games following a straight up loss. The Over is 6-2 in Denver's last eight games off an ATS win. Even though Damian Lillard has been off since going for 39 points in Game 1, two of the three games have still gone Over. There are enough contributors on both teams that each will again find a way to get points. Play OVER Portland-Denver AAA | |||||||
05-07-19 | Stars v. Blues -130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 19 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on ST. LOUIS It's come down to a Game 7 between the Stars and the Blues. It'll be played in St. Louis, which seems like an obvious advantage for the home team, but they're actually just 2-4 SU here in the postseason. But after losing both Games #2 and #5 on home ice (won Game #1), we look for the Blues to win here. We simply believe them to be the better team as Dallas has had an issue scoring all season on the road (29th in the league). The Blues won Game #6 in Dallas, 4-1, and would seem to have some momentum here. Don't discount the impact of the injury suffered by Stars goalie Ben Bishop on Sunday as he had to leave the ice. He'll obviously go in Game #7, but is he at 100% for the biggest game of the year? After the road team took four of the previous five games, it's time for the home team to deliver when it matters most. The Blues have won all three games where they scored at least three goals and we expect them to hit that number tonight. Play on ST. LOUIS AAA | |||||||
05-07-19 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 211.5 | Top | 89-125 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto Every game in this series has gone Under. In fact, for both teams, the Under trend extends back into the first round. Philadelphia's last six games have all gone Under. This series has seen them get held Under 100 points three times and now they aren't at home anymore. In Games #1 and #2 in Toronto, they were held to 95 and 94 points. Toronto has allowed no more than 96 points in seven of its last eight games, which is a remarkable achievement in the modern NBA. Going back to the final game of the regular season, the Under has hit in 9 of the Raptors previous 10 games. Despite the Under continuously hitting, often by comfortable margins, the oddsmakers still haven't dropped the total by nearly enough for Game 5. Expect Toronto to continue to play outstanding defense as there have been only two playoff games where the opposing team shot better than 40.2% from the field. One of those was the 76ers in Game 3, but that was in Philly. On the road, their points/game average drops by almost seven full points. Play UNDER Philadelphia-Toronto AAA | |||||||
05-07-19 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee Playing the Under here was a rare loss for us on Monday, but coming back with it is the right call. There has been a pitching change for Milwaukee. They will be going the "opener" route as originally scheduled starter Freddy Peralta has been terrible in the first inning (12.81 ERA). Peralta will pitch eventually in this game and we like the move by Brewers skipper Craig Counsell. Washington will go with Stephen Straburg and there's no reason to expect we won't be getting a strong outing from him. In his last three starts, Strasburg has a 1.25 ERA and 0.78 WHIP with 29 strikeouts. He's gone at least 6 2/3 innings in all three and never allowed more than two earned runs. Last night's game was a 5-3 Milwaukee win, just sneaking Over the total of 7.5. Be ready for an Under tonight though as we "get it back." The Brewers have given up three runs or less in six of their last eight games and every game in their last series went Under. The Nationals have gone Under in 5 of their last 7. Play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee AAA | |||||||
05-07-19 | Angels v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER LA Angels-Detroit Unlike the other two games in this package, this is a series opener. The Angels and Tigers had Monday off. For the Angels, the day off was needed as they returned to the United States after a somewhat disastrous two game trip down to Mexico where they gave up 26 runs to the Astros. Before that, they'd won five in a row. Detroit managed to win its last game, in walkoff fashion, beating Kansas City 5-2, but that was after allowing 15 runs in a loss on Saturday. We expect lots of runs to be scored in this game as well, even if the distribution ends up being a little more even. Griffin Canning will be making only his second start for Los Angeles. The first was okay, but he lasted just 4 1/3 innings and still gave up three runs. Daniel Norris goes for the Tigers and he's lasted only five innings in each of his three turns. The respective workloads of the two starters lead us to believe we'll be seeing plenty of the bullpens here and that's a good thing for an Over bet seeing as Angels relievers have a 6.07 ERA/1.67 WHIP on the road while Tigers relievers have a 5.40 ERA/1.53 WHIP overall. Play OVER LA Angels-Detroit AAA | |||||||
05-07-19 | Mariners v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
This is an 8* play OVER Seattle-Yankees Seattle started the year like a house of fire, winning 13 of their first 15 games and putting up some incredible offensive numbers in the process. They hit at least one home run in 25 straight games, which is a new MLB record to start a season. Things have since screeched to a grinding halt at the plate, but that doesn't mean the Mariners aren't still an "Over team." The Over is 26-8-3 in their 37 games played this year as they are now giving up runs in bunches. The Yankees scored 7 on them yesterday. There was a point last week when they allowed 11 or more runs three times in a four-game stretch. One of those was started by Marco Gonzales, who lasted only 1 2/3 innings. This will be Gonzales first time starting since then. He'll be opposed by Masahiro Tanaka. Tanaka has definitely had the Mariners number in his career, but despite that and the fact Seattle only scored three runs yesterday, look for this one to still go Over. Seattle did score 10 runs on Sunday and still leads MLB with 70 home runs. Play OVER Seattle-Yankees AAA | |||||||
05-06-19 | Warriors v. Rockets UNDER 221.5 | Top | 108-112 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
This is an 8* play UNDER Golden State-Houston Houston had to have Game #3 (we took them) and they came through with a 126-121 win in overtime, led by James Harden's (who else) 41 points. That win may ultimately be for naught if the Rockets don't win here as well, but this time we're keyed on the Under. Every game in the series has been close (decided by 6 pts or less). We are actually 3-0 in the series, winning with the Rockets in Games #1 (they covered plus the points) and #3. We also won with the Under in Game #1. The last two games have been pretty high scoring, which is what you'd expect when these teams play one another. But the Under is actually still 9-3 the previous 12 meetings and 19-8-1 in the Rockets' last 28 games overall. The Under is also 8-3 the last 11 times Golden State has been off a straight up loss. In the playoffs, Houston is only giving up an average of 103.6 points/game. Their scoring is also way down (108.7 points/game). A lot of that has to do with playing Utah, but note Game 3 was "only" 112-112 at the end of regulation. Play UNDER Golden State-Houston AAA | |||||||
05-06-19 | Nationals v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on UNDER Washington-Milwaukee Seeing Max Scherzer with a 1-6 team start record is certainly something we're unaccustomed to, but it's the reality entering Monday's start in Milwaukee. The Washington ace really hasn't pitched that poorly, although he's definitely not been up to the usual Scherzer standard. His WHIP is a very respectable 1.17 though. Even though the Nationals have lost his last two starts, both were quality efforts from Scherzer as he went seven innings and allowed three runs or less each time. Strikeout numbers are still good. So we expect Scherzer to pitch well in this spot tonight. He has a 2.40 ERA in eight career games vs. Milwaukee. The problem lately for Washington has been scoring runs as an injury-depleted lineup has been held to three runs or less in 8 of its last 10 games. Milwaukee is off a series (three-game sweep of the Mets) where every game stayed Under. The Under is 6-1 this year with tonight's starter (Chacin) on the mound. Chacin has pitched better at home so far and has a 2.88 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Nationals. Play UNDER Washington-Milwaukee AAA | |||||||
05-06-19 | Bruins v. Blue Jackets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play UNDER Boston-Columbus The Bruins will be looking to close out the Blue Jackets Monday, but to do so they'll have to win in Columbus. This is the first time facing elimination for the Jackets in these playoffs as they of course pulled off a stunning first round sweep of top seed Tampa Bay. Boston was taken to a Game 7 in Round 1 by Toronto, but this time it's a little different as they enter Game 6 on the road up 3-2 in the series, rather than down. Game 7 (if necessary) is in Boston, so the Bruins have that ace in the hole. The first four games of the series were all Unders before Boston won Game 5 by a score of 4-3. With the stakes even higher tonight, this should go back to being a low-scoring series. Both goalies have been great so far. Boston's Tuuka Rask has a .932 save percentage in the playoffs and is above that number in this series. For Columbus, Sergei Bobrovsky isn't far behind with a .928 postseason save percentage. Both of these teams have seen far more Unders than Overs this season, so the way this series has played out should not be shocking to anyone. The Under is 11-3 the last 14 times Columbus has been favored on the money line. Play UNDER Boston-Columbus AAA | |||||||
05-06-19 | Bucks v. Celtics -1.5 | Top | 113-101 | Loss | -109 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on BOSTON Boston may have looked like the better team in Game 1, but since then Milwaukee has taken control of the series with back to back wins where they scored 123 points. The Celtics shot poorly in both losses, but we'll back them here in a must win spot in Game 4 at home. You not only have to expect better shooting here, but better defense as well. Yes, the Bucks were #1 in the league in scoring in the regular season and have had their way offensively the last two games. But the three-point shooting we've seen from them in the last two games is bound to "taper off." They were north of 40 percent from behind the arc in Games #2 and #3, going 35 of 84. That's high volume, which is not new for them, but the percentage and number of makes is more than usual. There have been only four times all season where Boston has lost three or more straight games. All we have to do here is basically lay a bucket in order for them to avoid doing so in what is obviously their biggest game all year. They've lost consecutive home games just twice all season. Play on BOSTON AAA | |||||||
05-05-19 | Nuggets +3 v. Blazers | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on DENVER Nobody wants to lose in the NBA Playoffs, but going down in four overtimes is particularly gut-wrenching. As difficult to "swallow" as Game 3's loss may be for Denver, we like them to bounce back on Sunday. We did have the Nuggets in Game #3 and sure enough they did cover for us, losing by only three points (140-137) as a 4.5-point underdog. Obviously, Friday's game going four overtimes is going to have an effect on both teams here. At least it's a night game, so there will be about 48 hours to recover. Portland is 0-4 ATS off its last four SU wins here in the playoffs. The underdog has also gone 5-2 ATS the past seven meetings between them and Denver. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS their last four visits to the Moda Center. They've also been the ones to cover five of the last seven meetings and the only two exceptions were Game 2 (shot poorly) and a game back in January where they won by three, but were caught laying -4.5. Take the points. Play on DENVER AAA | |||||||
05-05-19 | Raptors v. 76ers -1.5 | Top | 101-96 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
This is an 8* play on PHILADELPHIA The line has jumped the fence for Game 4 (Philly now favored). While that might mean "less value" on the 76ers, it also means public sentiment has now clearly swung against the Raptors, a team whose past playoff failings may be set to catch up with them again. The 76ers obviously outplayed the Raptors in Game 3, beating them 116-95 and looking like a completely different team on offense than what we saw in the first two games. Perhaps that should have been something we all saw coming as the Sixers do average 118.5 points/game at home, which is noticeably higher than their scoring average on the road (which is just 111.8 points/game). You won't be surprised to learn that the results have been much better for Philly at home compared to the road. At home, they have gone 34-11 and outscored opponents by 8.6 points/game. On the road, they have gone just 23-22 while actually being outscored over the course of the season. Philly has gone 6-1 straight up and against the spread since losing Game 1 in the first round. The line jumping the fence is also notable because the favorite has covered in 21 of the previous 30 meetings. The home team has covered seven of the last nine. Play on PHILADELPHIA AAA | |||||||
05-05-19 | Blue Jays v. Rangers -126 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on TEXAS After taking a hard-luck 1-0 loss on Friday (game went 12 innings), the Rangers came back and beat the Blue Jays 8-5 last night. They jumped all over Toronto starter Pannone, scoring seven times off him in just 2 1/3 innings. Today, they hope for similar results against Clay Buchholz, whose best days are pretty clearly behind him. Buchholz is still winless after four starts, though the team has gone 2-2. But Toronto has lost the last two and Buchholz hasn't made it past the fifth in any of the last three. The Blue Jays aren't a strong hitting team either, averaging just 4.0 rpg on the year. There's only been one time where they have scored more than five runs in the last nine games. Also winless in four starts is Rangers lefty Drew Smyly. The only difference with him is the team has lost all four times. He's also not made it very deep into games. But at least Smyly has an offense that can adequately support him. Texas is averaging 6.1 runs scored in home games this year. Buchholz is 0-4 lifetime in this park with a 6.00 ERA. Smyly has a 2.76 ERA in 10 career appearances vs. Toronto. Play on TEXAS AAA |
Service | Profit |
---|---|
Ricky Tran | $868 |
Will Rogers | $491 |
William Burns | $415 |
Nick Parsons | $345 |
Joseph D'Amico | $282 |
Ross Benjamin | $255 |
Sean Murphy | $226 |
Tom Macrina | $149 |
Joey Tron | $113 |
ProSportsPicks | $107 |